From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Another look at the Red Sox
Date: 7 Apr 92 15:22:29 GMT
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853

I am tired of comparisons between the 1992 Red Sox and the 1992 Blue
Jays.  Resulting in a ton of criticism that the Red Sox "don't have
any speed", or "only have two top starters".  I wish to take another
approach.  I'll compare the 1992 Red Sox with the 1991 Red Sox.

After all, we *know* that the 1991 Sox scored 731 runs and allowed
712.  By the pythagorean approximation, they should have won slightly
more than 83 games.  (They actually won 84 games.)  So we can work
from there.

The offensive staff hasn't changed much from last year.  However,
Greenwell, Burks, Brunansky, Reed, and Pena each had their *worst*
*season* *ever* in 1991.  They may not *all* hit better, but I expect
this bunch to collectively improve by a total of ~50 runs (we're
talking half of the team's ABs here, so a little improvement goes a
long way!).

The bench (Brumley, Lyons, Marshall, and Romine) has been replaced.
But that is pure gain, when you realize that the new faces are Cooper,
Naehring, and Winningham!  

The only *major* change is that Quintana is gone for the season,
replaced by Vaughn and Plantier.  The three of them combined for ~950
PA last year with a composite ~.810 OPS last year.  Plantier will get
about 600 of those PA with Vaughn taking the rest (and probably also
stealing a few from Brunansky).  Both Vaughn and Plantier are expected
to hit at least that well (Bill James projects Vaughn for a .820 OPS
and Plantier for a .890 OPS, and I *don't* think that is optimistic).

Basically, I expect the Sox offense to approach 800 runs this year.
This isn't a great offense.  Not for a Fenway team!  But it's an
improvement of 60-70 runs over last year.

As for the pitching, I will attempt to compare by role:
Clemens is in the same role as always.  The pitching god that carries
the entire staff on his back.  He's done it every year since 1986,
and he can do it again.  His 1991 was basically average for him.

Harris and Hesketh combined for 227 starting innings and 99 relief
innings last year, with a 3.60 ERA.  This year it looks like Hesketh
will exclusively start and Harris will exclusively relieve.  But they
can match their 1991 combined performance.

Gardiner and Morton combined for 216 innings of 4.75 ERA ball.
Gardiner will have no trouble improving on that.  (I hope for an ERA
of 4.00, but expect an ERA of 4.20-4.50.)

Bolton and Young threw ~180 innings of 5.20 ERA last year.  Honestly,
I think Young can do a little better than that.  Not *much* better.
Maybe only a 4.50-4.80 ERA.  But a little better.  If he *can't* do
better than that, somebody else can.

Reardon didn't have a particularly great season last year.  I predict
a repeat of his 60 innings of 3.03 ERA.

Darwin may have trouble matching Gray's ERA of 2.34 in the set-up
role, but then Gray only pitched 62 innings before his stroke.  Darwin
will get 90 innings to produce equal value.  If healthy, he shouldn't
have a problem with this.

Fossas will again be the lefty specialist.  His 3.47 ERA is hardly
spectacular for that role.  Which is why I think he can manage a
repeat performance.  :-)

I mentioned Harris/Hesketh above.

Which leaves the fifth starter and long relief.  This was a total
disaster for the Sox in 1991.  They gave 16 innings to Bolton, 68
innings to Darwin, 20 innings to Irvine, 40 innings to Kiecker, 92
innings to Lamp, and 22 innings to Petry.  None of them had ERAs below
4.70 (except for Petry who had a 4.43 ERA in limited PT :-).

Viola will pitch most of these innings.  If Viola manages a 3.50 ERA
for 225 innings, he will save a full 30 runs over what happened last
year!  (Bolton and Hoy will pitch the remainder, and will also pitch
some of the innings I gave to Gardiner, but I think they can manage to
match the ~4.80 ERA these guys put up last year.)

The net improvement in the pitching staff should be at *least* the 30
runs that Viola gives.  Combined with the 60-70 runs expected
improvement in the offense, and I expect the Sox to improve their run
differential by about 100 runs this year!  This boosts them from an
expected record of 83-79 to an expected record of 94-68.  For
comparison, the Blue Jays won 91 games last year.

The Blue Jays will have to improve if they want to win in 1992.  I'm
hoping that they won't.  But either way, the Red Sox are a team to be
respected!

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
"Red Sox all the way in '92!"	tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball