From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 August
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 1992 02:58:42 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               19 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 232, 08/19/92
10.7 FLUX=134.8  90-AVG=126        SSN=106      BKI=0021 1223  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B6.2     FLU1=5.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1121 2223  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,004,012,009,009,015,010,021   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.4   @ 2012UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.2   @ 0104UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1545UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1815UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1840UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55268NT @ 2257UT   BOUTF-MIN=55212NT @ 1843UT  BOUTF-AVG=55249NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1658UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-001NT@ 0653UT  G7-AVG=+089,+036,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+144NT@ 2253UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 1348UT  G6-AVG=+100,+000,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,130;SESC:135,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,015,010
    KFCST=2224 4112 2224 4112  27DAY-AP=019,011   27DAY-KP=4433 2333 3223 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-1720UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  Region 7260 (N17W24) was responsible for
the largest flare of the day, a fairly long duration class C3.4 event at
20:12 UT.  Frequent B and C-class subflares were observed from this group
throughout the day.

     Region 7260 grew significantly in the trailer spot complex over the last
24 hours, firmly entrenching the delta configuration which developed there
over the last several days.  The region is now a respectable 1300 millionths
in area (or approximately 3,900 million square kilometers).  Growth of the
trailer spot complex contributed to an elevated background x-ray flux.  This
region is M-class capable.  It should be noted that further growth of this
spot complex could usher in a major flare prior to its transit of the west
limb.  The possibility for proton activity associated with energetic activity
from this group will exist as this region moves toward the west limb over the
next five days.  At the present time, flare activity from Region 7260 is
expected to remain confined to C and/or minor M-class events.

     Another filament disappeared near the central meridian at N10W06 between
05:47 UT and 17:20 UT.

     A 245 MHz radio noise storm of fairly strong intensity was observed
between approximately 00:00 UT and 17:20 UT.  The source of this storm is
attributed to Region 7260.  Additional 245 MHz noise storms are expected over
the next 3 to 5 days.

     A new H-type spot rotated into view today and was numbered as Region
7265 (S19E66).

     Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.  There is a fair to
good possibility for an M-class flare from Region 7260 over the next 72
hours.  This is the only region visible that is capable of M-class flare
activity.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled today.  The field is
expected to continue mostly unsettled over the next 24 to 72 hours.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  Reports of
some minor signal degradation were received from some northern and southern
hemisphere stations that may have been related to sporadic-E and/or spread-F.
Similar conditions are expected to persist over the next 72 hours.  There is
a growing possibility for periods of short wave fadeouts (SWFs) over daylit
paths due to minor flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7260  N17W24  256  1300 EKI  14  056 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7262  N16W81  313  0060 CSO  08  003 BETA
7264  N15E19  213  0010 BXO  07  006 BETA
7265  S19E66  166  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7256  S15W76  308                    PLAGE
7261  S23W76  308                    PLAGE
7263  N15W72  304                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 AUGUST TO 22 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7252 S16   129
7241 N14   120
7242 N16   103


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0145 0145 0153 7260  N20W16       SF   1700
 0410 0411 0411                          300
 0730 0735 0743 7260  N16W15 B8.8  SF    430
 0939 0943 0947 7260  N14W14 C1.4  SF    240
 1158 1158 1204                          720
 1405 1406 1408                          550


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
19/A0547             B1720       N10W06   DSF
19/1410      1457     1531       N18W19   LDE    C1.6   81
19/2007      2012     2056       N17W18   LDE    C3.4   49


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **