From: zubair@venus.ycc.yale.edu
Subject: Sri Lanka : 2025, A plausible scenario
Organization: Yale Computer Center (YCC)
Date: 18 Dec 92 20:56:22 EDT

Friends, this is a plausible sceanrio of conditions in Sri Lanka, I have 
constructed based on current trends. Of course this is only speculation, but I would like to know how you
see our future. I am increasingly becoming convinced that we need to orient
ourselves to the future rather than to the past. I present a scenario that I
would prefer in the next article.



 		Sri Lanka 2025: Probable
                ------------------------


The war between the armed forces and the Tigers continues. Prabhakaran, 
the Tiger leader  is 71 years old. The Tigers have controlled the North for 
over 35 years but are still far from establishing any institutions of 
government such as an administrative service, courts or schools. 
The United National Party continues in power. Elections have been suspended 
since 1994. The government is dominated by military officials.
Establishing its dominion over the north has long ceased to be a concern of 
junta in Colombo.  The government maintains the security of industries which 
are concentrated in the Western province. 


The population has reached 19 million. A projection of 21 million persons 
was made in 1990, however the continuing war has reduced the lifespan and the
number of births. The number of jobs has increased by a million from 4 million 
in 1990 to 5 million. The total labor force has risen to 9 million, of
which 45% are unemployed. The national debt kept increasing from US $ 5 billion
in 1992 to US $20 billion at the turn of the century. At this point, Sri Lanka 
was unable to obtain any new loans which would be above the 
amount needed to service its  old debts. Rather than incur any further debt, 
it has defaulted on its old loans since. There are fears that payments may not
be made for the national exports. The conditions are tense and inflation is
over 50%. 


The forest cover has diminished to 10% of the land from 44% in 1960 and 20%
in 1990. It  comprises  exclusively of the national parks. Forest clearing 
has caused extensive erosion and several of the major hydro-power schemes have 
silted  prematurely. The other hydro-power schemes only produce power during a 
three month rainy season. Women and children walk several miles to obtain 
water and firewood which is rapidly diminishing. Without adequate financing 
the schools and hospitals infrastructure has broken down; private schools and 
hospitals provide amenities for the rich in the Western province. 


New military groups contend over the rest of the country. The hill-country is 
a battle-ground of an Indian-Tamil guerilla group; and the resurgent Sinhalese 
``Peoples Liberation Front''. The PLF (JVP) has risen for the third time 
and is in control of the Southern part of the country. The east is a 
battle-ground between the Islamic Jihad guerilla group,  a new Tamil guerilla 
group,  and the armed forces. 

Guerilla attacks carried out against civilians both by Tamil, Sinhalese and
Muslim guerilla groups. Many other gangs of young men are engaged in pillage. 
It is suspected that most of these men have grown up in the refugee camps all 
their life. There is a new resentment against the refugees. 

India is ruled by the Hindu nationalist Bharathiya Janatha Party. It
 too, is racked by sectarian violence. These problems keep India from using 
military force in spite  of demands from Southern India and Indian Tamils living
in the central hills. 





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