HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: cherkaue@zomma.cs.wisc.edu (Kevin J. Cherkauer)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
Subject: Re: Scientific Theory (was: Re: UFO's
Date: 8 Sep 92 18:30:18 GMT
Organization: University of Wisconsin, Madison -- Computer Sciences Dept.

In article <1992Sep4.141955.19017@m.cs.uiuc.edu> mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu writes:
>If you want to know how people make decisions, you have to look to psychology.
>In the case of scientific reasoning, you could do worse than reading
>I. J. Good (or more recent) on Bayesing (sp?) statistics.
                                ^^^^^^^^
Bayesian, named after Bayes.

>Note that this is a psychological _theory_ of belief, although there is
>decent evidence that it may well represents how (at least some) scientists 
>think.

Being in artificial intelligence and having studied some approaches to modeling
"belief," both from the computer science and the psychology ends, I must say
that the vast preponderance of the evidence is against Bayesian models as
explanations or theories of how humans reason. Bayesian statistics are so
inadequate for modeling human belief systems and so psychologically implausible
that this starting point has generated all sorts of research into how humans
*really* think. (For instance, the Dempster-Schafer style models.)
  The two biggest problems with Bayesian belief modeling are A) obtaining
good prior probabilities (usually impossible), upon which all Bayesian
deductions are based. (If your priors are bad, all your deductions are
meaningless) and B) modeling the fact that it is possible (and common)
for a person believe neither theory T nor theory NOT T. (E.g. T = FTL travel is
possible. NOT T = FTL is impossible. It is perfectly reasonable for someone to
not "believe" either of these, but to say they don't really know which is
correct, or to believe all three (T, NOT T, and "don't know") equally, etc.
Another common example is belief in a supreme being. Theists of whatever kind
believe such a being exists. Atheists believe one does not exist. Agnostics
don't believe either of these theories -- they claim it's possible that one
exists but they don't know if one does or not.) Dempster-Schafer allows belief
to be assigned to such empty hypotheses, while in Bayesian models, any degree D
of belief in T automatically implies a degree of belief of (1 - D) in NOT T.
  Pure Bayesian models also tend to dodge the issues of the distinction between
knowledge and belief and the presence and use of metabeliefs (one's beliefs
about what people belive). That these issues are important is evident from
the ability of humans to make sense of such statements as "I believe I know the
answer to your question" (versus "I know the answer to your question"), or, "I
know my daughter believes in Santa Claus," etc.

-- 
Kevin Cherkauer
cherkaue@cs.wisc.edu

Disclaimer: The above opinions are solely the responsibility of my owners.
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
From: lfoard@Turing.ORG (Lawrence C. Foard)
Subject: Shock wave rider (Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?)
Organization: The Turing Project, Charlottesville Virginia.
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 11:59:13 GMT

It would be interesting to compare astrological, etc. predictions with
those of decent science fiction. I recently read Shock wave rider written
in 1974, it refered to events that happened between 1974 and 1992, however
they where close enough to the truth that I kept forgeting it was written
before they happened.

For example:
 The disarmament treaty of 1989 ends the cold war in the book...
 Fetal tissue transplants are an issue.
 Laser printers now exist (did they in 1974?)
 The net in the book sounds very much like the internet of today. 
 etc.

Now compare this to the psychics who wrote back in 1974...
-- 
------          Join the Pythagorean Reform Church!               .
\    /        Repent of your evil irrational numbers             . .
 \  /   and bean eating ways. Accept 10 into your heart!        . . .
  \/   Call the Pythagorean Reform Church BBS at 508-793-9568  . . . .
    
Xref: sparky alt.paranormal:2287 sci.skeptic:16488 alt.astrology:1703
From: dag@col.hp.com (David Geiser)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
Subject: Re: Shock wave rider (Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?)
Date: 15 Sep 92 17:44:04 GMT
Organization: HP Colorado Springs Division


The most interesting (to me) was the WORM.
-- 

 To the cat, the experimenter is problematic.
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
From: georgec@eng.umd.edu (George B. Clark)
Subject: Re: Ghosts
Date: Mon, 07 Sep 92 02:05:46 GMT
Organization: University of Maryland

In article <185of1INN14v@network.ucsd.edu> philipm@papillon.ucsd.edu (The Philster) writes:
>A little change of pace here...
>
>Philip Misiowiec

Phillip, I thought your discussion and inquiry about ghosts was interesting,
though perhaps a little disorganized.

I regret that the responses so far have been weak, and they have come
only from the pseudo intellectuals who "know better" than to believe
these issues have any merit.

Xref: sparky alt.paranormal:2284 sci.skeptic:16468 alt.astrology:1694
From: epp@mala.bc.ca (Lorne Epp)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Date: 15 Sep 92 01:25:36 -0700
Organization: Malaspina College

In article <92258.145621DB8727A@auvm.american.edu>, 
	Deborah R. Beriro <DB8727A@auvm.american.edu> writes:
> I'm fluent in french and whoever translated the thing about a map on a 
> man's head is obviously reading the wrong language.  The french version 
> talks about cousins in bathing suits playing on the grass and under trees.  
> You obviously need to go back to french 101


Then RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu writes:

> i went out and bought myself a french-english dictionary.  how many of you
> true believers did the same? you can get one for about five bucks.  go ahead.
> see for yourself.
> 
> here is my translation, with the dictionary aiding my meager french, of
> 
	[correct translation deleted]
> 
> i'm honestly curious: what made you so stupid that you would post the
> original french of what you know was a blatant mistranslation? i'm also
> curious as to why you would want to just plain flat-out lie in order to
> back up nostradamus?  if you honestly believe in nostradamus, then why
> put yourself in such a position of using obvious falsities to claim that
> nostradamus saw the future?  if you don't believe in nostradamus, then
> why back him up in the first place?
> 
> i still can't get over how flat-out stupid it is to include the original
> of a blatant mistranslation.
> 

Does nobody have a sense of humour anymore?  With my dozen-word French
vocabulary it was easy to see that the translation was a JOKE, even
without using a French-English dictionary.  He was making fun of
Nostradamus interpreters.

Come on, think for five seconds before you reach for the flamethrower.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lorne Epp                                               epp@mala.bc.ca
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
From: m23364@mwunix (James Meritt)
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Organization: MITRE Corporation, McLean VA
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1992 17:19:08 GMT

In article <2529@israel.nysernet.org> warren@nysernet.org writes:
}Nostradamus predicted everything if you can only figure out what he
}meant after it already happened.  Quite a useful work for predicting
}the past, as long as one has a good historical reference at hand to
}make sure one doesn't predict things that didn't happen.

However, he also predicted things that DIDN'T happen.  He predicted
EVERYTHING.  Bar nothing!

What a clown.
From: warren@nysernet.org (Warren Burstein)
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Reply-To: warren@nysernet.org
Organization: Mail to News Gateway at Wang Labs
Date: 4 Sep 92 08:13:08 GMT
Followup-To: alt.paranormal

Nostradamus predicted everything if you can only figure out what he
meant after it already happened.  Quite a useful work for predicting
the past, as long as one has a good historical reference at hand to
make sure one doesn't predict things that didn't happen.
-- 
/|/-\/-\       I'll leave you with this saying:
 |__/__/_/     First, I'm going to give you all the ANSWERS to today's
 |warren@      test.. So just plug in your SONY WALKMANS and relax!!
/ nysernet.org 
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
From: casper@vxcrna.cern.ch (CASPER,DAVI./PPE)
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: European Organization for Nuclear Research, CERN
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 09:42:00 GMT

In article <92257.220503RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>, <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes...
>i thought i posted this before, but apparently it didn't work, so i'll do it
>again.
> 
>i went out and bought myself a french-english dictionary.  how many of you
>true believers did the same? you can get one for about five bucks.  go ahead.
>see for yourself.
> 
>here is my translation, with the dictionary aiding my meager french, of
> 
>     nous sommes ici, mais ou sont tes amis, alice
>     la-bas, sur l'herbe
>     qui est le garcon en maillot rouge
>     c'est guy, mon cousin.  et le garcon sous l'arbre est son compain.
> 
>     we are here, but where are your friends, alice?
>     down there, on the grass.
>     who is the boy in red tights?
>     it's guy, my cousin.  and the boy under the tree is his companion.
> 
>as you can see, there is no man with a map on his forehead, no one rising,
>no one falling, nobody who was once a king, no one waiting in line, no
>toilet paper, no chicken feet, no old man, nobody riding anything, let alone
>a great eagle, no one calling anything an evil empire, no amount of years,
>let alone three-score and thirteen, and of course, no bleeding-heart
>liberals.
> 
>i'm honestly curious: what made you so stupid that you would post the
>original french of what you know was a blatant mistranslation? 



I'm also honestly curious: what made you so stupid that you had to go out and
spend good money a French dictionary to translate what was obviously wickedly
funny joke?

You could have taken the same money and bought yourself a clue instead.


Dave

Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
From: sheaffer@netcom.com (Robert Sheaffer)
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Date: Fri, 11 Sep 92 14:36:40 GMT
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)

Upon careful examination, Nostradamus will be found to have predicted
EVERY significant event. However, the prediction itself cannot be
understood, or even recognized, until after the event has occurred.
-- 
  
        Robert Sheaffer - Scepticus Maximus - sheaffer@netcom.com
  
 Past Chairman, The Bay Area Skeptics - for whom I speak only when authorized!

       "Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet.
        Then all things are at risk. It is as when a conflagration has
        broken out in a great city, and no man knows what is safe, or
        where it will end."
                               - Emerson: Essay, "Circles"
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
From: mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu (Robert McGrath)
Subject: Re: Ghosts
Reply-To: mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept of Computer Science
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1992 17:43:55 GMT

In article <BuI7Cq.Ct1@agora.rain.com>, hopkins@agora.rain.com (Scott Hopkins) writes:
|> In article <1992Sep8.173816.27755@m.cs.uiuc.edu> mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu writes:
|> >AREN'T dead?
|> (Stuff Deleted)
|> >
|> Robert Writes:
|> >Both are basically examples of how people can fit events and memories
|> >into conventional folk beliefs about ghosts.  This is well known to
|> >anthropologists, and is done by people in all cultures throughout
|> >history.  What is paranormal about this?
|> >
|> >|> >We also have an inability to determine fact from fiction. We can take
|> >|> >inteligent guesses, but we can never know anything.
|> >|> >
|> >|> True.
|> >|> Phil
|> >The game, of course, is to be a sure as is possible.
|> >
|> >-- 
|> >  Robert E. McGrath
|> >  Urbana Illinois
|> >  mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu
|> 
|> Why are you so quick to dismiss things Robert?  Does there have to be a
|> simple solution for everything?  Does everything have to be cut and dry?
|> Whatever happened to open your mind and learn from experience?  If you've
|> never witnessed a phenomena, how can you be so sure they're not out there?
|> Just because you haven't does that mean everybody hasn't?
|> 
|> Maybe it's true, the sceptic may close their eyes along with their mind.
|> 
|> 	-Casey
|> 

If you would read what I said, you would see that I was evaluating the
two stories recounted.  I did not "dismiss" them, quickly or otherwise.
I offered an explanation of them that is consistent with how people
work, but with no reference to the ghost hypothesis.  Why are you so
quick to dismiss my hypothesis?  What makes you so sure I don't know
what I'm talking about?  Are you so closed minded that you cannot
consider that I might be right?

Also note that I made no comments about any phenomena except "ghost
stories", which I HAVE experienced.  Ghosts may or may not exist.
Folktales definitely exist, but are not particularly good evidence
for the existence of anything besides human imagination (which is
wonderful).  A naive acceptance of folktales as always literally true 
is a mistake.

I resent you calling me closed minded, when you obviously have not
even taken the trouble to comprehend what I wrote.  Insulting me
because you do not like what I said is hardly a productive response.
Perhaps you should open your eyes and mind to what I was saying.

-- 
  Robert E. McGrath
  Urbana Illinois
  mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu
Xref: sparky alt.paranormal:2267 alt.conspiracy:10595 alt.alien.visitors:6608 alt.mindcontrol:124
From: mcgrew@dropout.rutgers.edu (Charles Mcgrew)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,alt.conspiracy,alt.alien.visitors,alt.mindcontrol
Subject: Re: Matrix III Review
Date: 13 Sep 92 22:48:41 GMT
Followup-To: alt.paranormal
Organization: Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, N.J.

Hi,

   Some things you should know:

>	By Valdamar Valerian

... is a a pseudonym for John Grace, also author of "Matrix" and
"Matrix II".  (The "Krill" stuff that surfaces every so often is from
the same chap, along with John Lear.)  Grace is a pal of John Lear's,
who has admitted that the "Krill" stuff is all faked (which you should
remember when reading its "volume 3".)

   You may well ask, why should Grace keep doing this?

>	$55.00

... personally, I would love to read this, just like I loved reading
the Krill stuff, but I'm not going to fork over 55 bucks for the
privilege.

>	If you live in this society today this book is a must-have item.

... hee hee!  Now *that* is advertising!

   Who is this Michael Topper fellow, anyway?

Charles

PS - source: various Paranet digests.
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
From: otto@tukki.jyu.fi (Otto J. Makela)
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Organization: The Crimson Permanent Assurance Company
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1992 17:02:04 GMT

Could the original author of this thread check the Nostradamus reference ?
I was going to have a historian friend check it up on the 1558 edition,
but the given designation "B44" means nothing to him.

Century and verse number, please.
-- 
   /* * * Otto J. Makela <otto@jyu.fi> * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * */
  /* Phone: +358 41 613 847, BBS: +358 41 211 562 (V.32bis/USR-HST,24h/d) */
 /* Mail: Kauppakatu 1B18/SF-40100 Jyvaskyla/Finland, ICBM: 62.14N25.44E */
/* * * Computers Rule 01001111 01001011 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * */
From: zorro@picasso.ocis.temple.edu (John Grabowski)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
Subject: Future People
Date: 9 Sep 92 02:49:15 GMT
Organization: Temple University
X-Newsreader: Tin 1.1 PL5


How do we KNOW that there aren't human beings from the future mingling with
us, having learned our customs and habits enough to blend in, undetected,
but who know the future of the world and their place in it, and who have
powers and abilities about which we can only dream.

And how do you know that such people aren't your neighbors, your friends, your
tax preparer, Dan Rather...

Just food for thought.


John
zorro@picasso.ocis.temple.edu
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology,rec.arts.sf.written
From: v122pewm@ubvmsb.cc.buffalo.edu (C.S. Flunky)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
Subject: Request Info: Dudleytown, Conn.
Date: 8 Sep 92 18:45:00 GMT
Organization: University at Buffalo
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41


I am searching for info concerning the weird things that have been going on 
in Dudleytown over the past two hundred years.  I am also interested in the 
family line of the Dudley's of Connecticut, where they moved to once leaving
Dudleytown and if there are any surviving today.
From: jim@apsicc.aps.edu (frost...)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
Subject: Khirlian Effects Assistance needed.
Keywords: Photgraphy Detection Equipment
Date: 16 Sep 92 00:11:00 GMT
Organization: Albuquerque Public Schools - Career Enrichment Center
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

Hello all,
  I don't get a change to peruse this section of the Net as much as I would
like but I would like to ask a question of any of you who may be able to
provide assistance. We have a group of students at the Center I am at who are
attempting to do a project involving the Khirlian effects. What I am trying
to help them with is attempting to obtain any information from those of you
who may have some knowledge in this area. Any advice in the areas of detection,
proper equipment needed, photographic methods or techniques recommended, etc.,
would be most helpful. 
  I have difficulty finding the time to come onto NEWS all that often so if
you have ideas or suggestions and could EMail them to me it would be a very
great help. Incidentally, the students are looking to be able to generate
enough data to make full use of a supercomputer (CRAY) which is to be available
to them for a period of time.
						Thank you in advance,
							Jim
======================================================================
   We are rapidly ascending through prosperity to poverty...  Twain
                    Internet:    jim@apsicc.aps.edu
       Albuquerque Public Schools - Instructional System Manager 
======================================================================
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal
From: kdawson@AFIT.AF.MIL (KEVIN D. DAWSON)
Subject: Re: Experiments Wanted
Organization: Air Force Institue of Technology, WPAFB OH
Date: Fri, 11 Sep 1992 01:49:06 GMT

In article <1992Sep4.175347.6967@m.cs.uiuc.edu> mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu (Robert McGrath) writes:
>From: mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu (Robert McGrath)
>Subject: Re: Experiments Wanted
>Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1992 17:53:47 GMT

>In article <kdawson.25.715616477@AFIT.AF.MIL>, kdawson@AFIT.AF.MIL (KEVIN D. DAWSON) writes:
>|> Hello "ALL"
>|> 
>|>       I'm proposing a night out for my group over Halloween that would 
>|> include a trip to a cemetery. Once there I would like to set up some 
>|> experiments that would be evaluated the next day. 
>|> 
>|>     Some ideas are...
>|>       Camera (iris open) in a light box.
>|>       Camera Long -exposure iris down.
>|>       Tape recorder, no mics or inputs.
>|>       
>|> Any other suggestions?
>|> 
>|> Kevin Dawson
>Experiments to do what?  Generally an experiment is supposed to have
>a goal, not just apparatus.  What are you looking for?

>And by the way, does "Tape recorder, no mics or inputs." mean a tape 
>recorder left turned on but with no input device?  If so, what in the 
>world is that supposed to accomplish?

>-- 
>  Robert E. McGrath
>  Urbana Illinois
>  mcgrath@cs.uiuc.edu
Robert 
      Thanks for pointing that out to me, These are just some back yard type 
experiments I was thinking up as kind of a "Ghost-Busters" evening at a 
local Cemetery.  In reference to the tape recorder, I read a book back in 
the 70's called "The Voices on the Tape" in which the author transcribed the 
voice he thought he heartd in the Hiss.  I've always wanted to try this just 
to see for myself.
have you any thoughts along these lines ?

Kevin

Xref: sparky alt.paranormal:2273 sci.skeptic:16405 alt.astrology:1677
From: as_radfo@csd.brispoly.ac.uk (AS Radford)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Keywords: Nostradamus, Maillot rouge
Date: 14 Sep 92 14:26:19 GMT
Organization: Bristol Polytechnic, England

In article <1992Sep14.094222.3782@csd.brispoly.ac.uk> as_radfo@csd.brispoly.ac.uk (AS Radford) writes:
>In article <1992Sep12.014030.26619@telesciences.com> msavasti@telesciences.com (Michael Savastio) writes:
>>...
>>Here is the quatrain of Nostradamus which foretells the fall of
>>communism:
>>
>>Original French:
>>
>>   Nous sommes ici, mais ou sont tes amis, alice
>>   ... etc.
>>
>>My Translation:
>>
>>   A man with a map on his forehead shall rise and fall
>>   ... etc.
>>
>
>This 'translation' is crap if my schoolboy French is still reliable -
>... etc.

Henry Schaffer, bless him, has pointed out that my recent posting
demonstrated very clearly my lack of a sense of humour.

*I* feel it demonstrated my susceptibility to late-season April Fool
jokes!

Put it down, in either case, to creeping senility.  

I'd better stop now: it's getting quite difficult to talk with my foot
in my mouth!  Sorry, Mike.



-- 
  Arthur Radford
  University of the West of England      -------------------------------
  BRISTOL, BS16 1QY, UK                	      Esperanto parolata
  as_radfo@uk.ac.brispoly.csd            -------------------------------
Xref: sparky alt.paranormal:2266 sci.skeptic:16355 alt.astrology:1664
From: msavasti@telesciences.com (Michael Savastio)
Newsgroups: alt.paranormal,sci.skeptic,alt.astrology
Subject: Re: Did Nostradamus predict the end of communism?
Summary: He did indeed.
Keywords: Nostradamus, Maillot rouge
Date: 12 Sep 92 01:40:30 GMT
Organization: TeleSciences CO Systems, Inc.


In article <1992Sep3.142519.21745@cs.ucf.edu> long@next1.acme.ucf.edu (Richard Long) writes:
> [...]                            Nostradamus' "Seventy-three years and  
>seven months" in quatrain B.44 may mean the duration of the communistic  
>regime in Russia.  [...]
> [...]                                       What does the original  
>quatrain say?


Here is the quatrain of Nostradamus which foretells the fall of
communism:

Original French:

   Nous sommes ici, mais ou sont tes amis, alice
   La bas, sur l'herbe
   Qui est le garcon en maillot rouge
   C'est guy, mon cousin.  Et le garcon sous l'arbre est son compain.

My Translation:

   A man with a map on his forehead shall rise and fall
   Once a king, now he waits in line for toilet paper and chicken feet
   The old man who rides the great eagle called it the evil empire
   Three-score and thirteen years, and now bleeding-heart liberals
      are calling it the same.


You'll have to forgive the lack of meter in my translation.  I believe
it is more important to capture the author's intent than to make it
sound nice.

As you can see, this quatrain (along with every other one written by
Nostradamus) leaves a lot of room for speculation.  You could say it
refers to the fall of the Soviet Union if you use your imagination,
but I'm not totally convinced myself.

--
  _____ 
 /o\   \________________________________________________________________
 8 8    ===o=xoo=x=o=xo=ox=== Michael Savastio (m.savastio@telesci.uucp)
 \_/___/   *******^*******^   351 New Albany Road, Moorestown  NJ  08057
Xref: sparky alt.paranormal:2275 sci.skeptic:16417 alt.astrology:1679