From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- AL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1992 17:10:27 GMT



                  AL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                (through games of Wednesday, July 22)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Guzman,Ju      TOR   10.6   3.5  0.753   12  2   2.07   33.7   3.37
Clemens        BOS   11.1   4.3  0.721   10  6   2.42   34.0   3.26
Appier         KCR   10.7   4.0  0.728   11  3   2.40   31.6   3.15
Nagy           CLE   10.9   5.1  0.683   11  5   2.79   28.3   2.81
Mussina        BAL    9.5   4.3  0.689   10  3   2.59   26.4   2.58
Fleming        SEA    9.3   5.4  0.631   11  4   3.45   15.5   1.81
Viola          BOS    9.6   6.2  0.610    8  6   3.45   16.9   1.75
Smiley         MIN    9.2   5.8  0.613   10  4   3.46   16.8   1.71
Krueger        MIN    8.6   5.5  0.608    9  2   3.42   15.4   1.48
McDowell       CHI    8.9   6.2  0.592   12  5   3.47   14.3   1.27
Abbott         CAL    8.5   5.9  0.593    4 11   3.29   15.2   1.28
Wegman         MIL    9.6   7.1  0.575    8  7   3.64   13.6   1.31
Gullickson     DET    8.7   6.3  0.580   11  6   3.41   13.7   1.17
Hough          CHI    6.9   4.7  0.594    4  5   3.47   10.4   1.06
Brown,K        TEX    9.6   7.4  0.563   14  6   3.75   12.1   1.06
Perez,M        NYY    8.5   6.3  0.572    9  8   3.48   14.6   0.91
Key            TOR    8.0   5.9  0.575    6  8   3.42   12.9   0.93
Navarro        MIL    8.8   6.8  0.563   10  6   3.92    7.9   0.88
Gubicza        KCR    7.2   5.6  0.564    7  6   3.80    7.2   0.75
Pichardo       KCR    4.8   3.2  0.601    5  3   3.27    8.9   0.74



Bottom 10 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong      CLE    4.2   9.7  0.302    2 13   6.55  -25.6  -2.68
Milacki        BAL    3.6   8.8  0.291    5  7   6.63  -22.9  -2.36
Finley         CAL    3.8   8.5  0.310    2  9   5.78  -17.8  -2.25
Slusarski      OAK    2.3   6.6  0.257    5  4   6.45  -18.9  -2.02
Aldred         DET    2.4   5.8  0.292    2  6   6.99  -17.7  -1.57
Stieb          TOR    2.8   6.1  0.313    3  6   5.91  -13.3  -1.53
Stottlemyre    TOR    4.3   7.5  0.364    5  6   6.29  -21.7  -1.65
King           DET    1.6   4.5  0.266    2  4   7.51  -14.3  -1.30
Davis,M        KCR    0.6   3.4  0.150    1  3  10.65  -16.5  -1.29
Delucia        SEA    2.5   5.1  0.326    3  6   7.33  -14.7  -1.23



Luckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Morris         TOR    7.2   8.4    12  3   10.1
Brown,K        TEX    9.6   7.4    14  6    5.8
Slusarski      OAK    2.1   6.6     5  4    5.5
McDonald       BAL    6.7   8.1     9  6    4.3
Moore          OAK    6.7   9.0    10  8    4.3
McDowell       CHI    8.9   6.2    12  5    4.3
Krueger        MIN    8.5   5.5     9  2    4.0
Hibbard        CHI    5.9   7.8     7  5    3.9
Stewart        OAK    5.4   7.2     7  5    3.8
Tapani         MIN    7.3   7.0    10  6    3.7



Unluckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         CAL    8.3   5.9     4 11   -9.4
Armstrong      CLE    4.2   9.7     2 13   -5.5
Hanson         SEA    8.2   8.0     7 12   -5.2
Valera         CAL    6.4   5.6     4  8   -4.8
Key            TOR    8.0   5.9     6  8   -4.1
Gardiner       BOS    3.8   6.0     2  8   -3.9
Johnson,R      SEA    5.2   7.4     5 11   -3.8
Hough          CHI    6.9   4.7     4  5   -3.1
Kamieniecki    NYY    4.1   6.1     2  7   -3.0
Mesa           B/C    3.4   5.5     4  9   -2.8



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS     36.6   30.3   0.547   35.6   30  34   3.95   3.82   3.08
MIN     36.7   30.4   0.547   35.9   41  24   4.00   3.79   3.20
TOR     35.5   34.9   0.505   34.9   42  29   4.26   4.39   0.10
CHI     35.1   34.7   0.503   34.5   34  30   4.22   4.25   0.37
MIL     34.7   34.6   0.501   33.5   33  29   4.44   4.43   0.15
TEX     35.0   35.1   0.499   34.3   37  28   4.33   4.29   0.07
KCR     32.2   33.2   0.492   30.7   30  34   4.52   4.53  -0.39
BAL     33.6   35.4   0.487   32.3   38  33   4.45   4.45  -0.58
CAL     33.6   35.5   0.486   32.5   26  42   4.39   4.49  -0.94
NYY     30.6   37.3   0.450   29.7   30  36   4.84   4.86  -3.40
CLE     30.8   38.2   0.447   30.1   29  45   5.21   5.12  -3.55
SEA     31.1   39.4   0.442   29.9   28  46   5.27   5.04  -3.77
OAK     29.5   40.3   0.423   28.5   40  34   4.90   5.25  -5.31
DET     26.3   40.9   0.391   25.3   30  37   5.40   5.56  -6.81
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AL     461.3  500.2   0.480  448.0  468 481   4.57   4.57 -17.78


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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