HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: jle@world.std.com (Joe M Leonard)
Subject: Statistical summary: wins vs. stat categories
Organization: The World Public Access UNIX, Brookline, MA
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 18:21:57 GMT

As a follow-on of sorts to the Fielder et al discussions, I thought I'd
run the 1992 AL team stats to see what correlated with Wins (really the
only Important stat?)...

Runs	0.673
SB-rat	0.555
TBB	0.503
SB	0.429
Hits	0.344
EB-hits	0.114
HR	0.062

I omitted RBI, since it's essentially Runs...  Several comments from this:

1. HR's show NO correlation with winning.  Granted, this is a very limited
sample, so one would have to check a bunch more years (suitably scaled
against each other) to see if this is a fluke or not.

2. TBB (and Hits to a lesser degree) suggest that getting men on base
generates wins.  Reasonable, since they have to be on to score runs, etc.

3. The Success Rate for SB is more important than the sheer number of SB's.
Again reasonable, since killing off baserunners isn't a good thing.  BTW,
SB and CS have a correlation of 0.818...

4. Interesting correlation: EB-hits with CS: -0.749.  I guess this means
that SB's are a weapon of last resort...  If you have the ability to
score "in the traditional fashion", why risk having folks gunned down?

Oh, thought I'd add - correlation against Runs:

EB-hits	0.665
Hits	0.642
SB-rat	0.603
HR	0.580
TBB	0.563
AB	0.352
CS     -0.274
SO	0.198
SB	0.146
GIDB   -0.018

EB-Hits = double + 2*triples + 3*HR's

Again, SB's by themselves are not relevant - it's their success rate
(but Bill James said this 10+ years ago).  

Joe Leonard
jle@world.std.com

P.S. Given this kind of study, aren't the categories used in Roto
"unrealistic"?  Has any Roto league used some form of scaling factor(s)
to alter the categories to something that more accurately reflects
what it takes to win (boy, I can get flamed for that one)?  Or do Roto
folks already know in their hearts that their game's a form of lottery
related to baseball...
From: srubio@garnet.berkeley.edu (Steven Rubio)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
Subject: Re: Would you trade Puckett for McGwire?
Date: 8 Jan 1993 20:15:43 GMT
Organization: University of California, Berkeley
NNTP-Posting-Host: garnet.berkeley.edu

Re: McGwire at $16 for Puckett at $27

Do it.  McGwire is $11 cheaper and 3 years younger.  He will always give
you HR and RBI, while Kirby is always in danger of becoming a one-category
player.  But it's the $11 that really matters ... both players are capable
of having $40 seasons, which means that McGwire has more "profit"
potential ... esp. since he is younger and thus more likely to continue to
produce at something near his recent level.

In the above, I am for the most part ignoring factors such as "do I need
HR more than BA?" or "who will I get to take Kirby's place in the OF?" 
It's January!  You have plenty of time to balance your roster ... heck, I
usually don't do it until mid-May, myself. :-)  Just ask yourself this
question: do you think you will feel better at the end of your auction
with Mark McGwire and a $12 outfielder, or with Kirby Puckett and a $1 CI?
 In both cases, you'll have spent $28 of your $260.

Steven

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: frisch1@athena.mit.edu (Jonathan Katz)
Subject: Padres Bullpen
Organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 06:34:28 GMT

Anyone have any ideas on who the dominant reliever will be this year for the
Padres?  (I hope they haven't made some free agent acquisition that I'm not
presently aware of.)  Anyway, one rumor I heard was Tim Scott, which sounds
reasonable except that his minor league stats were never great (as far as I'm
aware), and he did nothing in the majors last year.
Any opinions?  Anyone in SD know if they're leaning towards him?
-Jonathan Katz
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: frisch1@athena.mit.edu (Jonathan Katz)
Subject: Major league moves
Organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 06:37:29 GMT

Does anyone out there happen to have a complete list a trades and free agent
signings so far.  I can't keep up with all of them!
If you do have a complete or partial list, I would appreciate a copy
(frisch1@athena.mit.edu). Thanks!
-Jonathan Katz
From: srubio@garnet.berkeley.edu (Steven Rubio)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
Subject: Re: Analysis
Date: 8 Jan 1993 22:28:43 GMT
Organization: University of California, Berkeley
NNTP-Posting-Host: garnet.berkeley.edu

Travis Fryman at $15 is a keeper, even with OBA instead of BA.  Radinsky
at $7 looks awfully good to me ... so does Grahe at $3 (whattya got to
lose?) for that matter, though I don't like him very much.

Steven, just stating the obvious!

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: P0022@vmcms.csuohio.edu
Subject: Fantasy Baseball League
Organization: CSU
Date: Tue, 5 Jan 1993 13:18:22 GMT

 
     Is there anyone out there that plays throught the SFFL in
  Kissimmee, Flordia? I want to know some information about the
  group that runs it???  I here they have football and basketball
  too. Anyone know if there are any fees?
 
  c. William
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: ROTISSERIE:  Shane Mack+Derek Bell for Mike Mussina
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 22:40:09 GMT

In article <8372@news.duke.edu> fierkelab@bchm.biochem.duke.edu writes:
>
>1)  How strong is your pitching versus your outfield?

Why does this matter?  It's not like you only count the stats of
half the outfielders or something...  The stats count for *all*
*four* outfielders.  I can see a slight preference for having
a balance between pitching and offense and between positions,
but it's not *that* big a deal.  Especially before the draft...

>IMO, this trade boils down to the futures of Derek Bell and Mike Mussina. 
>Shane Mack is a good but not great outfieleder who will help you this year if
>you have a weak outfield.

HUH????  Shane Mack is one of the top dozen offensive players in the
league, either for rotisserie or in real life!  His numbers last year
were pretty consistent with his 1990/1991 numbers, except for the
increased PT.  (Actually, his 1990/1991 numbers were a little better.)

And since when is a .315/16/75/26 performance not great????  Bill
James projects a .299/.362/.435 year, which looks pretty good to me...
And I think he's being pessimistic there.

>Questions about the players...is Derek Bell the next George Bell, or the next
>Mark Whiten?

Looks closer to Mark Whiten to me...

>If you think he's more like George than Mark, then the trade's
>probably worth it.

Well, I would trade Mussina for Mack straight up (pitching being
notoriously inconsistent, and therefore worth a bit less), so I
don't think this really enters into it.

-Valentine
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: Fantasy Baseball Mags
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 23:43:06 GMT

In article <wall-060193174513@elvis.swarthmore.edu> wall@cc.swarthmore.edu (Matthew Wall) writes:

>
>Do you have subscription info for the Benson newsletter? Could you post?
>
For Matt, giver of Gorman-bashing, I'm too happy to oblige:

John Benson's Winning Rotisserie Baseball

Six months $35, 1 yr. $59, 2 yrs. $99, sample copy $7.

Diamond Analytics, P.O. Box 7032, Wilton CT 06897.  800/292-6338.  Plastic 
is cool.

To all:  reviews of various newsletters would be greatly appreciated.  
Please post.
From: anneb@tecsun1.tec.army.mil (Anne Brink)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
Subject: APBA Managers sought in Washington, DC area
Keywords: APBA Master game NOVA DC MD VA
Date: 7 Jan 93 21:12:33 GMT
Distribution: dc,usa
Organization: U.S. Army Topographic Engineering Center, Ft. Belvoir, VA.

(Posting for a co-worker, please respond to Jim instead of me.  thanks. -A.)

-------------------Begin included text ----------------------------------------

The Northern Virginia APBA Baseball league is looking for new managers.  We
are a 12 team, continuous ownership league with an annual draft in late 
January. (30 Jan this year.)  We play an 88-game season, face-to-face, with the
Master Game.  Master Game experience is not necessary.  If you're interested,
please call Ted McDonald at (301) 277-9192 or Jim Allen at (703) 355-3173(work)

-------------------End included text-------------------------------------------

"Coming soon to a paper ballpark near you:  Hayfield Hedgehogs '93: Escape
from the Cellar"
-- 
###############################################################################
Anne Brink			# U.S. Army Topographic Engineering Center
anneb@tec.army.mil		# Ft. Belvoir, VA 
###############################################################################
From: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
Subject: Re: Cardinal outfield
Date: 4 Jan 1993 21:54:02 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
NNTP-Posting-Host: thor.ins.cwru.edu


In a previous article, aviano@sdd.hp.com (Mike Aviano) says:

>Is Bernard Gilkey a likely starter in the Cardinal outfield?
>
>How do Brian Jordan and Ozzie Canseco fit into the situation?
>
>
>
>Thanks for your opinions.
>

   Lankford in center.  Jose in right.  Gilkey in left is how I see it.  
Jordan and Canseco (in that order) are waiting in the wings for one of these
guys to falter.  I don't see it happening though.

SfH

-- 
Steven F. Hubbard                ** "If people don't want to come to the 
Case Western Reserve University  **     ballpark, how are you gonna stop them? 
Department of Physics            **  
Cleveland, OH 44106              **                         -- Yogi
From: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
Subject: Re: Franco & Radinsky?
Date: 11 Jan 1993 20:18:21 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
NNTP-Posting-Host: thor.ins.cwru.edu


In a previous article, kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian) says:

>>
>>I haven't heard much news on Julio Franco. Rumors are floating around about
>>him possibly DHing and that he may have to stick to that role because his
>>knee problems are so bad. But I'm not in Texas. This speculation could
>>be from the same people who said Bo was going to play last year. I'd say
>>too early to tell. Definitely not a freeze, but could be a real bargain if
>>you have an auction.
>
>Adding fuel to the fire is Jeff Frye's excellent adventure in winter ball.  
>He hit .383 for Oriente in the Venezuelan league this winter.  He's now home 
>resting up.  For the uninformed, he had 199 ABs for the Rangers, playing all 
>games at second base.
>
  
   I think the Frye will be the main second baseman for the Rangers next year.
They just can't play Franco there because of his knee problems.  They have
experimented with him in left field, and he wasn't too bad.  I think he'll
play some left and some DH.  By losing Reimer and Downing, the Rangers have
openings at both spots. 

   Another part of Franco's prognosis is that the Rangers should rest him
once a week to avoid excessive wear on his knees (I can't believe that DHing
would be all that stressful on them).  I expect the Rangers will follow that
early in the season.  If he does well, he may play everyday -- that's what's
been happening to Dawson the last few seasons.  Either way, Franco's bound
to land on the 15 day DL at some point in the year.  I expect him to play
around 130 games, hit very well, steal very little.

SfH 
-- 
Steven F. Hubbard                ** "If people don't want to come to the 
Case Western Reserve University  **     ballpark, how are you gonna stop them? 
Department of Physics            **  
Cleveland, OH 44106              **                         -- Yogi
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: buzzb@buzzb.mentorg.com (Buzz Brehm)
Subject: Sojo
Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1993 20:55:34 GMT
Organization: mentor
Keywords: 
Followup-To: 

I've been offered Sojo ($5) for Gagne ($5). I know, snore...

I'm inclined to go for it, but was wonder what the word on Sojo's role
in Toronto is.  Any thoughts?

-- 
-- BuzzB

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    buzz_brehm@mentorg.com
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Mentor Graphics |  8500 SW Boeckman Rd         |  Software Support Engineer
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Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow)
Subject: Re: Franco & Radinsky?
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 01:24:16 GMT

In article <70Z5wB1w164w@nervous.UUCP> dan@nervous.UUCP (Dan Rathbun) writes:
>Has anyone heard any news regarding Julio Franco's health?  I am trying to
>decide if he is worthwhile freezing, from last years team.  I've heard
>that they are thinking of making him a certified DH only this year.  I
>just want to know if he's in good health and if he has his wheels back!
>A large part of his appeal as a fantasy player, is his high average,
>reasonable power, and then when he steals bases he becomes a definate
>franchise player. (at least he does in MY franchise)
>           " How about it Texas? Any news?"

I haven't heard much news on Julio Franco. Rumors are floating around about
him possibly DHing and that he may have to stick to that role because his
knee problems are so bad. But I'm not in Texas. This speculation could
be from the same people who said Bo was going to play last year. I'd say
too early to tell. Definitely not a freeze, but could be a real bargain if
you have an auction.

>     I'm also wondering if the White Sox have decided who's going to be
>their closer this year!  I was considering freezing Radinsky, but I think
>Thigpen is still lurking around Comisky too!  And they took a real long
>look at Roberto Hernandez in that role last year too.
>
>                             Anyone have any insight?
>

Hernandez looks like he's for real. He's blowing hitters away in winter ball
and certainly looks like he can handle the closing role. But for 1993, he
will be sharing duties with Radinsky. Both are risky since the other will
take over if one falters. Personally, I'd bet on Hernandez to be the full
timer by the end of the year. 

Thigpen's history. Don't worry about him.

--Les
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow)
Subject: Re: ROTISSERIE:  Angel's projected rotation
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)
Distribution: usa
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 23:17:37 GMT

In article <yf+3jbc@rpi.edu> sullis@rebecca.its.rpi.edu (Sean C. Sullivan) writes:
>Ok, it's time to guess the California Angels starting
>rotation...
>  Chuck Finley, Mark Langston, Julio Valera, Russ Springer,
>and ??-Hilly Hathaway?   (Blyleven won't be back)
>-- 

Expect Scott Lewis to get another chance and be the fourth or fifth starter.

--Les



Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: hyman@speedway23.DAB.GE.COM (Mark Hyman)
Subject: Fantasy Baseball Stats Service
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 14:44:04 GMT
Keywords: Fantasy Baseball
Organization: General Electric SCSD, Daytona Beach FL

	I'm the owner / operator  of Sweetwater Stats & software systems Co.
	and would like to be the stats service for your league. This is our
	3rd year in business. Please call or email  for an info kit.

		Thanx ...... 800-533-6215

	Try our free 24 hour Hotline  for league standings. Call
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		Leaague #         500
		League Id       27472
		Menu selection     01
		Week number        01  or 02

	Best times to call  are M-F 8:00 am to 8:00  pm EST
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: tloughin@IASTATE.EDU (Thomas M Loughin)
Subject: Re: Would you trade Puckett for McGwire?
Reply-To: tloughin@IASTATE.EDU (Thomas M Loughin)
Organization: Iowa State University
Distribution: na
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 16:07:31 GMT

In article <1993Jan7.193437.6636@zia.aoc.nrao.edu>, dadler@zia.aoc.nrao.edu
(David Adler) writes:
> Okay, since people are starting to talk about trades.....
> 
> Here's the scenario - I'm in a standard 10-team AL roto league.
> I finished first in average and RBI, middle of the pack in homers
> and stolen bases.
> 
>    I'm going to propose a trade of Kirby Puckett ($27) for
> Mark McGwire ($16). The guy with McGwire needs average
> desperately, so he'll probably be interested in at least thinking
> about it.
> 
>    Thoughts or comments? McGwire has had a lot of good power years,
> and I think Kirby may have peaked this past year. Of course, they are
> both secure with fat new contracts, so neither of them will be
> trying to prove anything this year...
> 
> Dave
> 
Dave, if you see my followup on another thread, then you'll pretty much guess 
what I think about their relative merits.  If you were starting a team, and 
salaries didn't matter, then the choice would obviously be Puckett.  

This isn't that simple, however.  You evaluate your team and see strengths and 
weaknesses.  You see an opportunity to deal away a little bit (well, a LOT, 
really) of your strength and bolster nicely one of your weaknesses.  There are 
a few key questions here:

	1.  With whom will you replace Kirby?
	2.  What would be your alternative to McGwire at first?
	3.  What will you do with the extra $11?  (the standard government 
	    argument against collecting money)

The answers to these questions will dictate whether you'd make this trade.

If you replace Kirby with, say, Brian McRae, while your alternative at first 
is Wally Joyner, then DON'T do it!  If Puckett's replacement would be someone 
like Devon White, while your current firstbaseman is David Segui, then by all 
means, make this trade.  

But, all things equal, one-for-one, I wouldn't touch it.  

Good Luck!

-Tom
From: spud@Apple.COM (Dave "Spud" Kalin)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy,rec.sport.baseball
Subject: 1992 Day-by-day stats?
Date: 12 Jan 93 19:49:00 GMT
Followup-To: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
Organization: Apple Computer Inc, Cupertino, CA

Does anybody out there in net-land have the 1992 stats of MLB players on a
day-by-day basis?  I know the file will be extremely huge, but if you could
send me a copy, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance,
   -Dave Kalin
    spud@apple.com
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: buzzb@.mentorg.com (Buzz Brehm)
Subject: Analysis
Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1993 20:40:48 GMT
Organization: mentor
Keywords: 
Followup-To: 

I in a standard AL Roto, except we use OBP instead of BA.  I've got to skinny
down to 15 players, and would like some opinions...

O
-
B Williams  $1
G Williams  $5
P Munoz     $5
M Cuyler    $10

O/DH
----
D Winfield  $16
K Reimer    $10

1B
--
P Sorrento  $8
JT Snow     $10

2B
--
B Boone     $5
S Fletcher  $10

SS
--
T Fryman    $15
G Gagne     $5
F Fermin    $1

3B
--
G Jefferies $26

C
-
None (had Wedge #$@$%)

SP
--
B Wegman    $10
M Trombley  $5

RP
--
J Grahe     $3
S Radinsky  $7


Comments?




-- 

-- BuzzB

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    buzz_brehm@mentorg.com
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Mentor Graphics |  8500 SW Boeckman Rd         |  Software Support Engineer
  Corporation    |  Wilsonville, OR 97070-7777  |      Falcon Framework     
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: Franco & Radinsky?
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 18:17:40 GMT

In article <1993Jan11.012416.9980@netcom.com> arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow) writes:
>
>I haven't heard much news on Julio Franco. Rumors are floating around about
>him possibly DHing and that he may have to stick to that role because his
>knee problems are so bad. But I'm not in Texas. This speculation could
>be from the same people who said Bo was going to play last year. I'd say
>too early to tell. Definitely not a freeze, but could be a real bargain if
>you have an auction.

Adding fuel to the fire is Jeff Frye's excellent adventure in winter ball.  
He hit .383 for Oriente in the Venezuelan league this winter.  He's now home 
resting up.  For the uninformed, he had 199 ABs for the Rangers, playing all 
games at second base.

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: ROTISSERIE:  Mussina + Ryan Thompson for Jeff Bagwell + Mike Devereaux
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 16:10:48 GMT

In article <8393@news.duke.edu> fierkelab@bchm.biochem.duke.edu writes:
>
>At the risk of being jumped on again, I like this deal better than the other
>one.  IMO, Jeff Bagwell, despite playing in the Astrodome, is a better hitter
>NOW than Shane Mack will EVER be, even though he plays in the Baggiedome.  For
>the person who said that Shane Mack was among of the best 12 offensive players
>(in baseball?  in the AL?  at his position??? ;), his stats remind me of
>Claudell Washington.

I meant in the AL, and was mostly speaking for rotisserie purposes.  I
think that Mack can repeat what he did last year, a .315/16/75/26
performance.  Why is that valuable?  He helps you in all four
categories; he isn't outstanding in any one, but the combination is
excellent.  A SB is roughly equivalent to a HR.  A hit is worth
(roughly) an RBI.  Compare him to Juan Gonzalez at .260/43/109/0.
That's a 30 RBI difference, but a 30 hit difference too.  A 25 HR
difference, but also a 25 SB difference.  Basically, Mack is worth
$10 on his batting average alone.

Furthermore, Mack is a proven player.  There may be 15 or 20 players
who will have a better season than that next year.  But are there that
many with a better chance of doing so?  Of course not.

So what did Claudell Washington look like in his prime?  Was he as
consistent as Mack has been over the last three years?

>Mike Deveraux is an underated offensive player, IMO.  He'll be about as steady
>a 3rd or 4th outfielder for you as Mack would have been.

Huh.  If you say so.  Devereaux won't help (and may hurt) your BA, he
probably will never get more than 75 RBIs again (not batting second),
and his power was a fluke.  Meanwhile, he has been stealing less than
Mack.  Mack had a better season last year, and is *far* more likely to
be good next year.

Devereaux in 1990 (times 1.5 because he was only part time): .240/18/74/19.
Devereaux in 1991: .260/19/59/16.

And you think he's as good as Mack?  He has *marginally* more power,
not significantly better RBI potential, his average sucks, and he
steals only 2/3 the number of bases.

I'm not convinced that Devereaux is much of an improvement on Ryan
Thompson, and I don't like Ryan Thompson!

-Valentine
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball