HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Streakiness in BJ and Progressions
Date: 21 Aug 92 23:36:24 GMT
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division

In article <BtCvFM.K0M@news.udel.edu> jack@freezer.cns.udel.edu writes:
>Sometime ago I read a book by Charles Einstein in which he discussed
>bj streaks.  His claim, backed up by some trials (but I believe the 
>nubmer was statistically insufficient) was that the average number
>of wins in the game was slightly greater than what you'd expect
>if the distribution of wins and losses were uniformily random...

(I don't think you are describing this properly, but I know what you
are getting at.)

In _Professional Blackjack_ Stanford Wong mentions studies 
that showed there is a very slight anti-correlation of the outcomes from
hand to hand in the same deck.  Emphasis on very slight.  Don't get the
idea that streak betting systems work, but the ones that bet bigger after
losing (dare I say "Martingale") aren't totally without a mathematical
basis at least.

-- 
Michael Hall            \It's easier to count cards than to remember which
NASA Ames Research Center\bet you are supposed to use next in some silly
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \progression, anyway.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: jj@slc.mentorg.com (Jeff Jennings)
Subject: Re: Big August rec.gambling excursion
Date: 12 Aug 92 18:49:29
Organization: Mentor Graphics Corp.

>>>>> On Wed, 12 Aug 1992 21:07:16 GMT, rbmoore@crchh95.NoSubdomain.NoDomain (Robert Moore) said:

Robert> Sounds great, which I could be there.  So how about this: Next year,
Robert> we have the 2cd Annual BARGE, from Friday, August 13th through Monday the 16th.

This will be the 2nd annual rec.gambling Las Vegas trip.  The 1st annual trip
took place during July 1991.  My vote for the 3rd annual trip is some month
when it isn't so damn hot!

I think that many of the people who will be there have a problem with an
advertised meeting place.  It would be real convenient for the casinos
to find out about it and identify a lot of "undesirable" people.

Jeff
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Subject: Re: BJ: Shuffles (was Re: Vegas trip report, 8/7-8/9)
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division
Date: Wed, 19 Aug 1992 19:16:23 GMT

In article <1992Aug19.135352.5915@uvmark.uucp> irwin@uvmark.uucp (Frank Irwin) writes:
>In article <1992Aug19.014332.16572@ultra.com> howard@ultra.com writes:
>>|>  ============================================================================
>>|>  Frank Irwin                   | My nomination for rec.gambling motto:
>>|>  Vmark Software, Inc.          |  "WTH?  HODYGTV, A?  AIR?
>>|>  irwin%uvmark@merk.com         |     - Timothy Whalen (twhalen@nunki.usc.edu)
>>
>>WTH = What the hell?
>
>Yup.
>
>>HODYGTV = How often do you get to Vegas?
>
>Correct, sir!  Followed by A? = anyway?
>
>>The rest, I haven't a guess...
>
>AIR? = Am I right?

Did Tim say this first, or was it Phil DiDio?

-- 
Michael Hall            \"...the physicist is often in the same position as the
NASA Ames Research Center\ gambler... Every time that he reasons by induction,
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \he requires the calculus of probabilities"-Poincare'
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs)
Subject: Re: Big August rec.gambling excursion
In-reply-to: bhoughto@sedona.intel.com's message of Thu, 13 Aug 1992 17:51:10 GMT
Organization: University of Utah CS Dept
	<JACOBS.92Aug12214146@cells.cs.utah.edu>
	<1992Aug13.175110.11342@ichips.intel.com>
Date: 13 Aug 92 13:03:21

In article <1992Aug13.175110.11342@ichips.intel.com> bhoughto@sedona.intel.com (Blair P. Houghton) writes:
>In article <JACOBS.92Aug12214146@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:
>>Anyone named Irwin would be denied access to public restrooms.
>
>Are you kidding?  The PC for hydraulic-flush-diving in a Vegas 'throom
>stall occupied by Frank Irwin is how Nevada Power and Water makes
>their money!
>
>>But hey, no problem, we can send the final meeting time/place out through
>>non-broadcast means to help cover your card-counter asses.  Just apply
>>the usual code translation to "*PRESTO* Frontier 2AM SAT craps table *IRWIN*"
>>and you'll know where to go ;-)
>
> I say we reprogram the pyrotechnics controls outside the Mirage
> to flash "MEET IN THE BUFFET IN 5 MINUTES" at the appropriate
> time.

Five minutes?  Geez, we can't even reach a consensus with 10 DAYS advance
notice.

> That, or we fill Mike Hall's hair with helium and
> float him off the top of Stupak's Mighty Tower.

We'll want to do that anyway...
--
Steve Jacobs  ({bellcore,hplabs,uunet}!utah-cs!jacobs, jacobs@cs.utah.edu)
"Never teach a card counter to sing.  It wastes your time and gets the card
 counter barred."
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: howard@sinoda.ultra.COM (Howard Simonson)
Subject: Re: Come bets at 10-20x odds
Reply-To: howard@ultra.com
Organization: Ultra Network Technologies
Date: Sun, 16 Aug 92 23:07:05 GMT

In article <7d=yslk@rpi.edu>, kinosr@rs6112.ecs.rpi.edu (Roy Kiyoshi Kinoshita) writes:
|> Does anyone know how many come bets should be made when placing full odds
|> at a 10 or 20x table?  Since each roll is independent of the previous roll,
|> it doesn't seem like it matters.  But if you have all the numbers covered
|> and the 7 comes up, you're screwed.  Having a lot of money on the table
|> doesn't seem like a wise choice.

This of course depends on the definition of a lot of money, which is
intertwined with the table minimum.

|> Several books have suggested having 1 pass-line bet and 2 come bets working
|> at a single- or double-odds table.  That's fine; I can deal with that.  But
|> to follow this same strategy at 20x odds makes my knees and my bankroll
|> shiver.

A one dollar pass backed with $20 odds is just a buck more than my usual $5
pass with $15 odds (about the same for 5 and 9).  But I haven't been willing
to play $5 pass in a 5x game.  At least not at full odds, and there's
the point.  Just because its a 10x or 20x table doesn't mean you *have to*
play full odds.  Sure, you always want to take as much odds as possible and
drive down the house %, but its much more important (at least to me) to be
comfortable with the size of your betting and be able to look back and say
you had fun whether you won or lost (its easier when you win, of course :)

So, given the choice of a $5 double odds game here, or a $5 10x odds game
there, I'll craft my own $5 3x (maybe 4x if I'm really hot and ahead) game.
Just look at the 10x/20x games as presenting you with more flexibility.

On the other hand, if its a $.25 - $1 at 20x odds, hell, I'll shoot the moon!

Ooh, wait, I see a guideline emerging:  figure out how much you're willing
to put into a "bet", how many bets you're willing to have out (so kinda
derive both from the amount your willing to lose in any one cycle), and
shift as much money from pass/come to odds as possible.
-- 
-------------  ----   ----   ----  ----  -----  -----  -- ---------------------
|J -------- |  |   \  |   \  |     |       |    |   |  || | Member of the
|  |/\=== | |  |   /  |   /  |     |       |    |   |  || |
|------------- |---   |---   ---   ----    |    |   |  || |  August BARGE,
||A          | |      |\     |        |    |    |   |  || |
||    /^\    | |      | \    |        |    |    |   |     |    Reno chapter.
||   /   \   | |      |  \   ----  ----    |    -----  [] |--------------------
||  / /|\ \  |____________________________________________|("I'll get to
||  L/_|_\J  |                                            |  Vegas, someday!")
-|    )|(    | EM: howard@ultra.com/VM: (408)922-0600 x228|____________________
 |    ---   V| Ultra Network Technologies*101 Daggett Dr*San Jose*CA*95134-2132
 ------------- [ My disclaimer is on file in the main office ]
From: chan@hpfcmgw.FC.HP.COM (Chan Benson)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: BlackJack in Colorado?
Date: 12 Aug 92 21:45:03 GMT
Organization: HP Fort Collins, CO


So what's the blackjack like here in Colorado? Are there any one or
two deck games in Central City or Blackhawk? Can you double-down on
any two cards? Does the dealer hit soft 17?

A weekend in Vegas last month whetted my appetite for 21.

			-- Chan Benson
			chan@fc.hp.com
From: sbrackstone@admin1.memst.edu
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: New Casinos to Open in Mississippi
Date: 12 Aug 92 10:54:41 -0600
Organization: Memphis State University

A new casino is scheduled to open September 15 in Tunica county
Mississippi.  It is one of the latest "riverboat" casino, only
this is actually a barge with a casino contructed on top, and 
it will float in an enclosed water filled "dry dock".  Will 
report on it after it opens.

Also, Harrah's and a locally headquartered hotel and development
group (Belz, the people who own and run the Peabody in Memphis
and Orlando) have announced a proposed joint venture to open a 
casino in Desoto county Mississippi, just across the state line
from Memphis, TN.  The voters in Desoto county still have to
vote on legalizing casino gambling in that county, so it's not
a done deal yet, but the propects are better than 50:50.

The concept is really nice, a quality operation.  If this is
approved and built it should be a showcase.  Both Harrah's and 
Belz are headquatered in Memphis and want to show off a really quality
operation in their backyards.

More to follow when it's available.

Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: mbuck@fibers (Michael D. Buck)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Vegas Trip Report --  8/7-8/8
Date: 13 Aug 92 11:21:40 EDT
Organization: Allied Fibers, Petersburg VA

In article <9208101058.aa24050@Bonnie.ics.uci.edu>, mchen@Bonnie.ICS.UCI.EDU (Morison) writes:
> 11 for BJ.  We pretty much played at Circus^2 for the rest of the afternoon.
> I guess we felt more comfortable over there because of the relaxed ambience,

Huh?  "Circus Circus" and "relaxed ambience" are members of disjoint sets.
Circus Circus has to be the least relaxed place I've seen in Las Vegas.
Especially on Saturday afternoon, which is when I was there.

> And we found out that Caesar's probably
> have the best looking cocktail waitresses. :-)

You should have visited the Rio.
________________________________________________________________________
Michael Buck                          |     (western religious thinking)
UUCP: decwrl!twwells!fibers!mbuck     | + (healthy attitude towards sex)
Internet:                             |   ==============================
  twwells!fibers!mbuck@decwrl.dec.com | =           (unexplored concept)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs)
Subject: Re: Big August rec.gambling excursion
In-reply-to: funky@nevada.edu's message of Fri, 14 Aug 1992 08:02:48 GMT
Organization: University of Utah CS Dept
	<JACOBS.92Aug13133641@cells.cs.utah.edu>
	<1992Aug14.080248.11068@nevada.edu>
Date: 14 Aug 92 09:51:16

In article <1992Aug14.080248.11068@nevada.edu> funky@nevada.edu (MATTHEW KAPHAN) writes:
>In article <JACOBS.92Aug13133641@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:
>>OK, new plan -- barbeque at Matthew's house, in back by the pool.  What was
>>that address again?
>
>   Uhh, bad idea.  Not a big enough back yard.  

Rats!  There's always a catch....

>  By the way, Presto is the only calling you  guys use, right?

Well, not really, we have a standard scream for performing emergency
plumbing manuevers.  The important thing to remember is that if any
pit.critter asks your name and you want to remain anonymous, you
should say "Michael Hall".
--
Steve Jacobs  ({bellcore,hplabs,uunet}!utah-cs!jacobs, jacobs@cs.utah.edu)
"Never teach a card counter to sing.  It wastes your time and gets the card
 counter barred."
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: davem@county.lmt.mn.org (David Mackmiller)
Subject: Little chuckle
Organization: LaserMaster R&D, Minneapolis, MN  USA
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 1992 15:33:44 GMT

Last night I went down to the new Mall of America (aka MegaMall, aka
SmegmaMall) in Bloomington, MN.  400 shops, dozen nightclubs, indoor
amusement park with roller-coaster, etc blah blah blah.  Impressive
if you're into hype and overkill.  Anyway, the Grand Casinos have a
storefront where they sell trinkets.  They also have two blackjack
tables with dealers (and bogus chips) to "help" people learn how to
play.  The problem was, there were about 30 little kids, no adults,
crowded around the tables.  Seems parents thought this would be a
good place to keep the kids entertained for free for a while.  The
dealers looked really pissed off.  I got a good laugh out of it. :-)

I also managed to score a couple of coupons good for $5 in cash at
the casino, so it wasn't a total loss.  Actually, the coupon is good
for $5 in quarters, or two $5 match play coupons.  Since e.v. for the
coupons is about $5, I get the quarters, turn them into $1 silvers
from a change drone and play the $3 tables.  Nothing screws up the
dealers here more than putting paper in front of them instead of chips. 
I've had (and won) numerous disagreements with the pit because nobody
knows how to handle "specials".  *sigh*

DaveMac
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
              ...it's not funny 'til someone loses an eye.
------------------------------+-----------------------+--------------------
mail: davem@county.lmt.mn.org | flames: alt.good.news | Opinions=mine alone
------------------------------+-----------------------+--------------------

Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: bhoughto@sedona.intel.com (Blair P. Houghton)
Subject: Re: even bets question...
Organization: Intel Corp., Chandler, Arizona
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 1992 05:32:56 GMT

In article <JACOBS.92Aug13134021@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:
-In article <1992Aug12.175153.21702@redbrick.com> jfr@redbrick.com (Jon Rosen) writes:
-> In article <12913@inews.intel.com> bhoughto@sedona.intel.com (Blair P. Houghton) writes:
->>In article <1992Aug11.054400.23686@redbrick.com> jfr@redbrick.com (Jon Rosen) writes:
->>>  Bill Friedman's book Casino Management (written in 1974,
->>
->>Is it in print?  Does it have an ISBN?  Can I get
->
-> Down Blair, down boy :-)  The ISBN is 0-8184-0151-6.  I have no idea
-
-It is listed in the GBC catalog, at least in the 1990 edition, at the
-low low price of just $125, but that price may have changed by now.
-Hey Blair, can I borrow your copy? :-)

Borrow, hell!

You can LEASE it, maybe...

				--Blair
				  "But unfurnished only..."
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: emmerik@titan.trl.OZ.AU (Mike VanEmmerik-ITG Brisbane)
Subject: Re: Vegas Trip Report -- 8/7-8/8
Organization: Telecom Research Labs, Melbourne, Australia
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1992 07:47:41 GMT

You mentioned the new casino that the Mirage is building, called
"Treasure Island", I think. My taxi driver's name for it is "Captain
Crook"!

But, considering the classiness of the Mirage (well, I like it), it
should be something special.


--
Mike Van Emmerik        \ Slots can have a positive expectation.
Telecom Australia       \ The jackpot has to be high enough, and
emmerik@titan.trl.oz.au \ you have to know how to pull optimally
From: ualxn@mcl.ucsb.edu (Alex)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Hint:  How to avoid Strip traffic in Vegas...
Date: 15 Aug 92 00:08:09 GMT

In a recent trip report, someone mentioned getting stuck for a while on the 
Strip in heavy traffic.  If you have your own car and want to get quickly from
Caesar's to Circus^2, you can take Industrial Road which runs parallel to the
Strip, one block north.  Most of the cross-streets intersect both Industrial
and the Strip and not too many people know about it. 

To get to Industrial from near Caesar's, drive towards the covered parking lot
around the back, but turn right instead of left towards the lot.  Go up to the
light and hang a right; there you are.  All the other streets are marked.


--------------------------------------------------
   /\         |\   |         "My Brain Hurts!"
  /  \        | \  |
 /----\  LEX  |  \ | ATHANSON
/      \      |   \|
                            ualxn@mcl.ucsb.edu
                          University of California
                               Santa Barbara 


Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: jfr@redbrick.com (Jon Rosen)
Subject: Re: even bets question...
Organization: Red Brick Systems, Los Gatos, CA
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 1992 17:51:53 GMT

In article <12913@inews.intel.com> bhoughto@sedona.intel.com (Blair P. Houghton) writes:
>In article <1992Aug11.054400.23686@redbrick.com> jfr@redbrick.com (Jon Rosen) writes:
>>  Just to show that the guys in Vegas are WAY ahead of you, here is a
>>  quote from Bill Friedman's book Casino Management (written in 1974,
>>  by the way) on this kind of ploy (p. 137 - Junkets):
>
>Is it in print?  Does it have an ISBN?  Can I get
>an order FedEx'ed back to me from the publisher
>before the Big August rec.gambling Excursion (BARGE!)
>to Vegas next week?
>
>				--Blair
>				  "Okay, gimme a bag on the
>				   hole and four for the peanut..."
 
  Down Blair, down boy :-)  The ISBN is 0-8184-0151-6.  I have no idea
  whether it is still in print.  You might want to try the Gambler's
  Book Club in Vegas.  I believe they Fed Ex stuff with a credit card.

  Jon Rosen
From: jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Betting both sides to get Comps
Date: 13 Aug 92 16:33:51 GMT
	<JACOBS.92Aug13074525@cells.cs.utah.edu>
	<1992Aug13.162035.16529@kronos.arc.nasa.gov>
Organization: University of Utah CS Dept
In-reply-to: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov's message of 13 Aug 92 16:20:35 GMT

In article <1992Aug13.162035.16529@kronos.arc.nasa.gov> hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall) writes:
>In article <JACOBS.92Aug13074525@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:
>>In article <1992Aug13.080700.3263@trl.oz.au> emmerik@titan.trl.OZ.AU (Mike VanEmmerik-ITG Brisbane) writes:
>>
>>>>[munch]
>>>>wrong bet.  All betting both sides does is reduces the variance of
>>>>outcomes without affecting expectation.  I would think that a
>>>>casino operator that comped 1 unit bets on right or wrong but not
>>>>1/2 unit bets on both was acting irrationally.  Is there something
>>>>I'm missing?
>>>
>>>Yep. Variance is where the casino makes most of its money, since most
>>>people have too small a bankroll.
>>
>>Nonsense.  Expected gain is where the casino makes ALL of its money.
>>Variance is not the casinos friend, except to the extent that it gives
>>the players the illusion that they can win.
>
> Tell 'em, Steve!  (Well, except for the quibble I have below.)

[munch]
>
> Variance will cause most players with small bankrolls to go bust,
> but it will also result in those few lucky ones who can't lose a bet.
> Some (most?) of these lucky ones go bonkers and keep betting bigger and
> bigger until they finally hit a bad streak and give most of it back to the
> casino.
[example deleted]

I covered this under "... except to the extent that it gives the players
the illusions that they can win".  I'll grant that this extent is *large*.

> So, I think it's not correct to say that variance does not alter the
> casino's expected earnings.

I didn't say that, all I said was expectation times total action equals
house win.

> Variance does not alter the expected
> casino percentage win per bet, but it does alter the action
> the casino receives.

Yup, but that is a two edged sword.  Variance also increase the risk to
the casino (and before anyone says "what risk, the casino has a huge
bankroll", I'll say "then why do casinos sometimes go broke?").  If the
games had zero variance, the casino wouldn't _need_ a huge bankroll.

>Michael Hall            \ Variance... can't make money with it, can't make
>NASA Ames Research Center\ money without it.
>hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \ 

Very cute, but show me a game with positive e.v. for the player and zero
variance, and I'll show you how to generate a huge bankroll very quickly.
Variance does nothing but impede the optimal growth rate of your bankroll.
--
Steve Jacobs  ({bellcore,hplabs,uunet}!utah-cs!jacobs, jacobs@cs.utah.edu)
"Never teach a card counter to sing.  It wastes your time and gets the card
 counter barred."
From: slick@netcom.com (Martin Veneroso)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Betting both sides to get Comps
Date: 18 Aug 92 14:23:29 GMT
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest)

emmerik@titan.trl.OZ.AU (Mike VanEmmerik) writes:

>jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:

>>Nonsense.  Variance reducing techniques will simply reduce the
>>probability of completely busting some players, and increase the
>>amount of time required for the house to reach "the long run".
>>House take is expectation multiplied by total action.  Hold percentages
>>give the pit critters something to worry about (besides card counters),
>>and help them feel like they are doing something important.

>Hmmm. I'm starting to suspect a misunderstanding of terms. The same
>table quotes "Win" as 9,247 (million $US, I think) and "Drop" as 37,344.
>Divide the first by the second, and multiply by 100%: 24.8%. I assume we
>mean the same thing by "Drop" and "total action".

Right.  Wrong.  This is indeed a misunderstanding of terms.  The "drop"
is the amount of cash, "foreign" chips and markers stuffed down the
slot into the "drop box" (catchy name) under the table.  The "total
action" is the sum of all the bets made (at that table, or that casino,
or that jurisdiction, or whatever).  If gamblers bet each chip they
buy one time and one time only then the "drop" and the "total action"
will be the same, but this is not how most (any?) gamblers play.  The
fact that the gambler's buy-in is bet many times over leads to the
disparity between "expectation" and "hold percentage," as Steve Jacobs
has already explained.

I hope that I have not muddied the waters further.
-- 
Martin Veneroso
slick@netcom.com
Jung'f vg gb ln?
jneybeqf fhpx fjbeqf
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: bhoughto@sedona.intel.com (Blair P. Houghton)
Subject: Re: Big August rec.gambling excursion
Organization: Intel Corp., Chandler, Arizona
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1992 17:51:10 GMT

In article <JACOBS.92Aug12214146@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:
>Anyone named Irwin would be denied access to public restrooms.

Are you kidding?  The PC for hydraulic-flush-diving in a Vegas 'throom
stall occupied by Frank Irwin is how Nevada Power and Water makes
their money!

>But hey, no problem, we can send the final meeting time/place out through
>non-broadcast means to help cover your card-counter asses.  Just apply
>the usual code translation to "*PRESTO* Frontier 2AM SAT craps table *IRWIN*"
>and you'll know where to go ;-)

I say we reprogram the pyrotechnics controls outside the Mirage
to flash "MEET IN THE BUFFET IN 5 MINUTES" at the appropriate
time.  That, or we fill Mike Hall's hair with helium and
float him off the top of Stupak's Mighty Tower.

				--Blair
				  "AIEEEEEEE!"
				  -F.I., 1st BARGE re-enactment festival
Newsgroups: rec.gambling