From: SASCHO@mvs.sas.com (SASCHO)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: DUMB inexcusable play
Date: 10 Apr 92 11:32:00 GMT
Organization: SAS Institute Inc.
X-Bytes: 4595

>>In baseball, you never make the third out at third. NEVER. You can score
>>from second on everything that would allow you to score from third.
>>The only exception is a PB/WP.
>
>Well, or an infield hit, or a ground ball error, or a balk.
 
You're right, but those are rare. An error will still allow most
guys to score, if they hustle. Assuming the ball bounces away
from the fielder, or the throw bounces a few feet away from first.
>
>>I think he should be fined, cuz guys
>>that have the green light to steal on their own need to show that they
>>have responsibility. Trying to pad stats and hurting the team
>>should result in a fine. Rarely in baseball do you hurt the team by
>>padding your stats, but this is a case of doing so.
>
>Actually, we can compute just how dumb this was, to some extent.
>
>On average, a team with a man on second and two out can expect to score
>about .35 more runs in the inning.  A team with a man on third and two
>out can expect to score about .38 or .39 more runs.  So, the marginal value
>of the stolen base is about .03 or .04 expected runs.  If we let 'p' denote
>the probability of successfully stealing the base, then the expected value
>of the attempt is given by
>
>        p * .04 + (1-p) * (-.35) =  .39 p - .35
>
>implying that this is only a winning bet if p > 35/39, which is between 89%
>and 90% success.
>
>Now, Coleman's career success rate for stealing 3rd is probably right around
>90%.  What this means is that, in the long run, he's probably not costing the
>team any runs by doing that.  If it's important to his intimidation of the
>opposing pitchers to *always* be a threat, then it might actually be a boost
>for the team overall, as long as he doesn't do it in situations where the
>club needs one run immediately (like the 9th inning of a tie game).  It's a
>strategy that makes the risk-averse duck and cover, but it's not really good
>or bad for the team in the end.
>
>On the whole, I'd say that it was not a wise decision, but was probably less
>stupid than a sacrifice bunt in the fourth inning...
 
OK, I knew this day would come. Stats prove a lot, and are valuable.
However, they don't (can't) show emotion and attitude. The general rules
(unwritten, of course) of baserunning are: never make the first out at
third, never make the third out at third, make the defense make the
third out at home. i.e., sending a runner on a base hit w/ 2 outs and
a runner on second. Put pressure on the defense.
 
As a player for several years, at a fairly high level, I can tell
you that these rules make sense. They work most of the time, and
guys generally believe them. The psychological impact of a guy
getting thrown at at third w/ 2 outs puts stress on the team.
If he steals and makes it, guys generally aren't elated. They are
relieved that they dodged a bullet. I don't think it is wise.           lf
                                                                        et sound
Bunting in the 4th. This is very subjective, IMO. If you're facing      d spoils
Roger Clemens, and he's on top of his game, then you realize            e", A.V
that runs are important. You get a guy on first w/ no outs, and
you bunt him over. Now you have a potential run, and two chances
to score him. Morale is up. I've been in games where the leadoff
man reached base the the first 5 innings, then the next batter hits
a rocket right at someone that turns into a DP. That creates more
pressure than just 2 outs. Guys start pressing. If you bunt a guy
over in the first, then score him on a hit, that's a tremendous
emotional lift to the team. I don't care if statistically the
potential was there to score an additional 1.8769 runs or whatever.
Baseball is a situational game, and you have to adjust to situations.
If some guy is not a good pitcher, or having a bad day, of course
you don't want to give him outs.
 
This does not even cover defense, which basically has the same highs
and lows for the same situations, though conversely. A DP gives
great boost to a defense. A man in soring postion, and they have to
make the play twice, or give up a run.
 
I think for all of the importance of stats, there are things that
can't be measured. If you stole third w/ two outs for my manager,
and a play was made on you, you were fined. If you go, you better
be so certain that you will make it that they can't even make a
play.
 
Thanks for your support. Please flame at will. Supportive comments
welcome, too. (Assuming there are any:-))
 
 
Chuck Oertli
SAS INSTITUTE INC.
AUSTIN, TX                                     SASCHO@MVS.SAS.COM