From: bruce.baer@factory.com (Bruce Baer)
Newsgroups: alt.recovery
Subject: 'Playing the Odds'
Date: 6 Oct 92 20:01:00 GMT
Reply-To: bruce.baer@factory.com (Bruce Baer)
Organization: Invention Factory's BBS - New York City, NY - 212-274-1243v.32bis

MH>This is absurd. More people belong to AA because AA has been around
MH>a lot longer than the newer groups. And the idea of deciding the
MH>question of God's existence by public opinion poll is plain silly.
MH>Not to mention that belief doesn't work like that - you can't
MH>come to believe something by deciding to do so. I'm reminded of
MH>the logic of "Pascal's Wager": if you believe in God and he doesn't
MH>exist, no harm done, but if you don't believe in God and he *does*
MH>exist, you're screwed bigtime. Therefore, believe in God. Argggh!!!
Mark,
   For a change I find myself in full agreement with you. Public opinion
also braught us Reagan-Bush.
   I find myself sympathetic to you plight. Lets try another approach.
Are you at all familliar with Quantum theory and/or statistics? If so
let us examine a concept of physical law in an applied science. This
seems to appeal to you. Let us take a look at the Josephson Junction,
a very fancy tunnel diode that will only conduct (super-conduct) under
given conditions: Cryogenic temperatures and etc... The junction is
about 6 atoms wide, yet the statistical probability of super-conduction
is over 90% (93% if I remember correctly). Electrons jump the gap with
0 potential difference and no heat at a fairly large rate to say the
least. This was thaught to be impossible less than a few decades ago.
Against the physical laws of what was then known as clasical mechanics.
    The mathamatics involved in the above example are to put it mildly
very complicated by my standards. Yet, some basic concepts do apply that
are similar to and can be applied to your situation. The indavidual
electron that must cross the junction is not considered. It is part of a
wave function. It is not possible to tell what a singular electron will
do, nor is it really relavent what a singular electron does. What is
important is what the group of electrons that constitute or make up a
given wave do. Repeated calculations over many wave functions gives us
an extriemly accurate picture of how well the junction is working or
not working. The Josephson Junction works very well.
     Hypothesis: I can stay sober on my own. I don't need a group.
     Conclusion: You figure it out. In the scheme of things you are no
more than an electron, the world does not care weather you stay sober or
not. You and a few electrons around you may be affected, but the group
or wave as a whole is not. If I were you I would find myself a wave I
could swim with before I hit the junction. I would personally pick a
known successful wave given the oppertuinity to do so, as I considder
myself a reasonably inteligent electron (granted my spelling, grammar,
punctuation, paragraphing and the like may leave much to be desired.
Sorry Joni, I just passed english via an electrons width.) and I have no
desire to gamble with unknown waves (groups). I prefer to stick with a
known sucess. Find youself a sober wave and swim over the junction.
                                                              BAB

---
 . SLMR 2.1a . There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.