From: hyper@ecf.toronto.edu (Hypersonic CFD Combust Diag)
Subject: Re: Elections end with sweeping victory for pro-Syrian candidates
Organization: University of Toronto, Engineering Computing Facility
Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1992 14:31:18 GMT

In article <1992Sep13.104137.12638@ccsun.strath.ac.uk> ccav38@ccsun.strath.ac.uk ("I.Ballouz") writes:
>In article <BuHKMI.CrI@ecf.toronto.edu> hyper@ecf.toronto.edu (Hypersonic CFD Combust Diag) writes:
>>
>
>  Stuff deleted
>
>>I meant what I said about her making a good political judgement in running
>>on Berri's list. She knew and we know that Berri has a great support in the
>>south, and those who vote for him will most probably vote for those on his list.
>>And since the South and the Nabatiye provinces formed one electoral district,
>>it simply meant that Berri's supporters ( and they are the majority, by far, in
>>the south) are capable of tipping the balance in favor of whoever is on their
>>list in almost whichever area in the south he/she might be (as was proven in
>>the latest results). Knowing that, Ms. Hariri made a good political decision 
>>by joining Berri as a running mate. That made it especially vital for her when 
>>all other factions and old enemies joined that same list.  
>
>I am not an expert on our electoral system but what I know is that you need
>two Sunni moslems to be elected from the Saida area.
>Among the Sunni moslems who were contesting these two seats Ms. Hariri, by far,
>is preferred. The rest (whether Mr. Saad , the fundamentalists or others who
>belong to famous families) were not sure about the support they have since
>so many things had happened in the last twenty years(last time the election tookplace). Some were not sure about their traditional supporters. Others did gain
>some support because of their positions in the war but they have also managed to create many many ennemies.
>This did not apply to Ms Hariri.
>
>Here, the other members of her list were the real beneficials since they
>were not able to find a better candidate to run for the Sunnis.
>
>So I do not agree with your analysis. However, I am glad you had explained
>what you had meant in the first place.
>
>>Samir.  
>
>Ibrahim.
>-- 

usually i prefer not to spend so many articles on a single point, but here
I find it rather necessary, since you did mention that your experience with
our electoral system is limited.


It is true what you said about Saida needing two sunni MP's and your analysis
of them was correct.  But by making The south and the Nabatiye provinces one 
electoral district gave say to the rest of the south on who will become an MP 
for any other region and "Qada'" in the south, including Saida.

so, saying that Bahiya Hariri ran against those on Berri's list, then if
Berri's supporters and their allies (other old enemies on his list)
congregate against her, she would only get those very few votes; possibly only 
those of the sunnis of Saida and a few other shiit votes, since Berri
and the other two sunni candidates (for Saida) on his list would heavily
campaign for their own list...and as it was proven, Berri had a big say
in directing the shiit votes in the south. 

Berri knew that Hariri was the strongest candidate in Saida and she was on 
his list (so did the other two candidates in Saida), and knowing that by 
adding a second candidate to his list he would have decided the Battle
for Saida, he chose to leave that seat open. And his list only had
22 candidates.  

In conclusion, eventhough she was running just for Saida she still needed
the votes of the rest of the south...meaning, the votes of Berri's list
supporters. In the new system, any lebanese citizen from the south could have
cast their vote for any of the 23 candidates, and all 23 candidates at the same
time (the south and Nabatiye are  representeed by 23 MPs). I hope this clarifies
 some of the ambiguities.

By the way, this was the whole idea behind transforming the electoral
districts in Lebanon from "Aqdiye" to "Mouhafazat".  This was definitely
planned to work in the best interest of certain groups.  Under different
circumstances this would have been a better system.

Samir.
 
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