From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: AAA Talent
Date: 3 Jan 93 17:53:51 GMT
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Distribution: na
Organization: University of Chicago

In article <1993Jan3.092840.4493@Princeton.EDU> niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent) writes:
>In fact, I think that the top echelon of talent in AAA would probably be
>average in the major leagues.  I think the major difference is that
>there is a bigger dropoff from them to the rest of AAA than the
>difference in the majors.  But I could put together a AAA all-star team
>that would win 90+ games in the majors.

I'm skeptical.  Seventy games, maybe.  But hardly "90+", without a
significant amount of luck.

I'd love to see the counter-evidence.

>>>But why would the Mets, who unarguably will be out of it in 93, want to
>>>give 200 IP to Tanana, when you could use those innings to find out if some
>>>of that AAA talent is legit?
>
>>What if they don't have AAA talent to see if he's legit?
>
>Well, they're doing a good job of trading (or not protecting) their
>minor league pitching talent, but I still find it hard to believe they don't 
>have *anyone* in the minors who pitched for them last year.
>
>Joe Vitko?  He doesn't look like much, but he might be.  Eric Hillman?
>Mark Dewey?  Mark Draper (Is that his name?  The guy from the Yankees.)?

I can buy the pragmatic argument that you don't want to develop AAA talent
at the major league level -- or even if you do, you don't want to do it in
New York City, especially when the fans think you're in contention.

I think free agency changes things also.  You only get six years of a
player's major-league career, but you get him in the minors as long as
you protect him there.  Maddux didn't really have anything to prove in
the minors any more (he'd been 13-1 in AAA), so you can blame the Cubs
for the one bad year he had, but the Braves will only get three "free"
good years out of Glavine.  

You have a player up before he's near his peak, and that's one less year
of peak performance you're guaranteed to have.

>>Why not let him prove it in the majors?  What happens to a pitcher's
>>psyche if you put him out there and he gets the hell beat out of him?
>
>I have no idea, and neither do you.  Nor does anyone else in the world
>except that specific individual pitcher.
>
>Maybe it hurt Mike Morgan.  Maybe.  But it certainly didn't seem to
>bother Tom Glavine.  Or Steve Avery.  Or Greg Maddux.  Just to name the 
>first three that came to mind.

These three were pitching for sixth-place teams.  Okay, maybe the Mets
are a sixth-place team, though New York doesn't want to admit it.  (It
very much looks to be the NL Least the way the Astros, Braves, Reds, 
Giants, and Padres have built up for 1993, and there's no way the
Dodgers will be as unlucky as they were last season.)  But I suggest
that there's a difference between pitching for New York and pitching
for a city of frontrunners that barely draws a million when the team
isn't contending.  Cubs fans, as far as I can tell, have been fairly
good to rookies -- it's free agents who don't perform that get booed.
-- 
ted frank                     | thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu 
standard disclaimers          | void where prohibited
the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball