From: rh@smds.com (Richard Harter)
Newsgroups: rec.games.bridge
Subject: NT with a partial stopper
Date: 16 Aug 92 09:38:34 GMT
Distribution: smds
Organization: Software Maintenance & Development Systems, Inc.


There has been some discussion of the merits and demerits of doubling
and rebidding NT with a 2-3-4-4 distribution and Jxx in opponents
heart suit.  Bob Silverman objects strongly; others disagree.

There are several different issues here.  One is the impact on
partnership understanding if you end up in NT and they run hearts.
Another is the likelihood that you will end up in NT and they can
run hearts.  Still another is the question of what contract you
can expect to play in profitably.

Lets take the simplest first; how likely is it that they are going
to run hearts against a NT contract?  If we assume that partner 
won't raise NT on a singleton, then partner holds 2 or more hearts.
A simple calculation says that the odds are 8 to 7 that partner holds
an honor if he has two hearts.  In addition partner may hold 3
(or even 4!) hearts; furthermore LHO with KQxxx has a problem on
the lead.  In short, if partner raises 1NT to 3NT the odds are
good that there is a stopper.  [Having a stop is a long ways from
making 3NT, of course.]  On the other hand, if partner passes 1NT
the odds aren't nearly so good, but it may well not matter.

I don't have the exact hand but, as I recall, it was something like
AK Jxx AQ9x KQ9x, i.e. 19 points and frozen spade honors.  If my
recollection is correct the sequence is 1H p p ?.  On this sequence
this is not a 19 point hand; the honors are behind you.  If RHO
opens 1H this hand is better than 19 points.  For example, if
partner has Jxxxx Kx xx Axxx, 3NT is a bad contract if LHO opened,
and a good one if RHO opened.

What contract can you expect to play in profitably?  You can only play
in spades if partner has good enough spades to insist on them.  You
will lose on average if they play hearts.  You probably won't find
the minors if you have them, particularly on a double.  So it comes
down to NT with the cards behind you.  So if LHO bids 1H and it's 
passed to you, bid 1 NT, system or not.  If partner bids a suit you
have good support; if he raises NT pretend you have 17 points [which
is about what this hand is worth on the bidding, at most] and act
accordingly.

What about partnership understanding?  Obviously if you are playing
a doctrinaire "NT shows a stopper" partner then you respect your
partners prejudices, regardless of percentages.  Don't do it with Bob!
If you and your partner are, ah, more liberal about bidding NT with
partial stoppers, play the percentages and live dangerously.  [Except
in big-money rubber bridge; rubber bridge sharks have an affinity
for hands that make a hash out of percentages.]

One final point.  This sort of hand, flattish with a suit out against
it, tends to lead to unhappy experiences.  When the opponent have a
long suit, I like to have one also.
-- 
Richard Harter: SMDS Inc.  Net address: rh@smds.com Phone: 508-369-7398 
US Mail: SMDS Inc., PO Box 555, Concord MA 01742.    Fax: 508-369-8272
In the fields of Hell where the grass grows high
Are the graves of dreams allowed to die.
Newsgroups: rec.games.bridge