From: kane@buast7.bu.edu (Hot Young Star)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc,ca.politics,ba.politics
Subject: Re: Why "Child Abuse Causes Homosexuality" Really Doesn't Fly
Date: 15 Oct 92 15:19:50 GMT
Followup-To: talk.politics.misc
Organization: Astronomy Department, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA

Thanks, Clayton, for correcting my numbers. That shows you what using
calculators and computers to do your arithmetic does to your natural
mathematical abilities!---

In article <12745@optilink.UUCP> cramer@optilink.UUCP (Clayton Cramer) writes:

>In article <98566@bu.edu>, kane@buast7.bu.edu (Hot Young Star) writes:

>First error.  You assumed 1% of the general population are homosexual
>men.  Of the 250,000,000 people in the U.S., about 25% are children
>(under 18) themselves.  Less than half of the population is male,
>especially among adults.  (Differential death rates for men and
>women with age).  If we are talking about 1% of the adult men in the 
>U.S., the number of homosexual men would then be more like 918,750.

Kinsey reported 4%, but said most comtemporary research pointed out about
2%. So double 918,750.

>> Of the 250,000 molestations involving boys, for an average victim count of
>> 250 per molester, that gives 1,000 boy molesters. Assuming these men are
>> all homosexuals (which is not in fact warranted), that means that 1,000
>> out of 2,500,000, or 0.4% of homosexual men are child molesters.

>No, that's .04%.  You arithmetic has failed you as well.

Right. Sorry. But the percentage is smaller!

>But let's use the right number, based on your assumptions.  1000
>(doubtless too low a number)/918,750 = .1%.

Or if you believe the reasonable assumption of 2% incidence of homosexuality,
this number is halfed to 0.05%.

>Again, your numbers are broken.  The number of adult men in the U.S.
>is about 91,875,000.  At a rate of 20 female victims per molester,
>and using the 1% homosexual number you assumed above, that's .2%.
>I doubt it's that low.

OK, we've agreed that the fraction of homosexual men who molest is somewhere
between 0.1% and 0.2%. Now you say that you doubt that the corresponding
fraction for straight men, 0.2%, is "that low".

Then why oh why do you say that homosexuals are overrepresented?

>Yup.  Men who like to have sex with boys aren't homosexuals.  I 
>understand.

Clayton, you should KNOW by now that the experts don't agree about the
nature of pedophilia in relation to adult sexual orientation. Most researchers
think that pedophiles have an arrested sexual development.

>>no matter which sample we pick, heterosexual men or homosexual men,
>>the percentage that are child molesters is always roughly the same---0.1%.

>I find that number far too low to be credible.  There's too many
>victims, and far too many people being sent to prison for child
>molestation to accept .1%.

There are close to 100,000,000 adult men in this country. 0.1% is 100,000
men. There are more than 100,000 men in prison for child abuse now? I find
that number scary itself!

>>Besides that given that only 1.6% of gay men who were abused as children go on
>>to later abuse children, homosexuality as part of a cyclic pattern does NOT 
>>appear to be the answer.

>Unless those 1.6% recruit a LOT of victims -- like 250 each.

It hasn't been established that child abuse causes homosexuality, only that
child abuse engendered some future abusers.

>>Later postings I shall address the issue of when sexuality develops, and
>>compare this age to the average age of molestation. I shall show you that
>>most psychologists and psychiatrists believe that sexuality become established
>>well BEFORE the bulk of molestation incidents occur.

>Do you really not believe that sexual trauma on a child will affect
>their sexuality?

No, I agree with you to that extent. I don't think the outcome is homosexuality.
That implies that everyone starts out naturally heterosexual. The other big
beef is that you've shown how girls react to abuse, by internalizing it, by
tending to become lesbian. But if so many more girls are abused than are boys,
why is the incidence of lesbianism arguably lower than male homosexuality.

Brian
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