From: strider@acm.rpi.edu (Greg Moore)
Subject: Re: ACRV/Soyuz P # of Passengers
Organization: The Voice of Fate
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 1992 15:45:15 GMT

In article <1992Aug15.221837.582@iti.org> aws@iti.org (Allen W. Sherzer) writes:
>In article <1kbya_k@rpi.edu> strider@acm.rpi.edu (Greg Moore) writes:
>
>>>A simple return craft can be built to return these payloads in a suitable
>>>environment. Estimate the cost of this anyway you want.
>
>>	Hmm, sorry, I don't have my figures for EVA handy. 
>
>Well when you can attach numbers to your complaint I will address it.
>Otherwise, it can't be considered credible.
>
	Sorry, I wasn't being facetious enough there.  My point is that
all of a sudden you've added ANOTHER cost and simply assumed your savings
are great enough that it just doesn't matter.  Since you're adding the new
requirement, I think it should be up to you add figure the cost of EVA to
remove and replace the panels instead of using the shuttle.
	Personally, I think a better bet on your side might be to 
use the cost for a smaller version the LDEF that can be launched and 
returned in one piece aboard a HLV or other craft.

>>>Since it achieves less reliability than commercial systems costing a fraction
>>>as much I don't think it is anything to boast about. Let's see it go on
>>>for a few years.
>
>>	How? If you kill it?  Compare the reliability of the first 50 flights
>>of the shuttle with the first 50 of any booster.  When we get more 
>>shuttle flights under our belt, we use that as a better data set.
>
>Shuttle deserves to die on the basis of cost alone. Its generally
>poor relaiblity is just iceing.
>

>>>HL Delta would use Complex 37. As for Atlas, the report I mention does
>>>say that the additional six flights can be acheived.
>>>
>>	Ok, so, let's see... under YOUR plan, you need at least 2 Soyuz
>>flights to recrew that station, 4 times a year.. gives 8 flights.  Ok,
>>so where do the extra 2 come from? 
>
	I don't recall your figures including the integration of Soyuz on
Atlas AND the HLV...
	In anycase, could you email my your figures.  I no longer have them
and I'd like to see them again.  Thanks.

>They go up on the HLV along with the resuply.
>
>> Given my numbers of min 3 flights
>>gives you 12 flights a year, twice the 6 you quote. 
>
>Only eight Soyuz are needed. If we need 12, that simply raises the cost to
>$1.6 billion per year. Instead of saving $ billion per year we will only
>save $3.4 billion.
>
	My point about # of flights has been conceeded, your numbers are
ok here.

>>Now, where do we
>>launch the Progress and other resupply flights?
>
>the HLV of course.
>
>>What happens
>>when an Atlas is grounded (for whatever reason, I believe that you are
>>reasonable enough to admit that sometimes ANY booster can be delayed 
>>somewhat) on the pad you're planning on launching your resupply mission?
>
>Since it can happen to any vehicle it can happen to Shuttle. Since we
>resuply with unmanned vehicles, gounding is a far more serious problem
>for Shuttle.
>
>I also point out that unlike Shuttle, the alternate approach has
>backups and assumes things will fail. If Shuttle fails, your dead
>in the water. If Atlas fails, you launch on Titan. If HL Delta
>fails, you use Titan V.
>
	This is actually the best part of your idea I like: Alternatives!!

>>>What isn't there is included in the estimated development costs. Like I
>>>said, the HL Delta designers know what they are doing.
>
>>	I've neer seen you quote the money to be spend on intergration
>>facilities, etc.  
>
>Nevertheless they ARE included.
>
>>>Look, McDonnell Douglas offered the government 20 HLV flights at a fixed
>
>>>price.
>
>>	Oh Allen? What do we need 20 flights for?  
>
>That represents ten years of station resuply.
>
>    Allen
>
>-- 
>+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
>| Allen W. Sherzer | "If they can put a man on the Moon, why can't they     |
>|  aws@iti.org     |  put a man on the Moon?"                               |
>+----------------------251 DAYS TO FIRST FLIGHT OF DCX----------------------+


-- 
<------------------------------------------------------------------------->
Greg d. Moore                  |  Strider@acm.rpi.edu
Green Mountain Software        |  "All that is gold does not glitter."  
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