From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1992 00:07:32 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               04 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 278, 10/04/92
10.7 FLUX=126    90-AVG=123        SSN=186      BKI=3321 1011  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B2.7     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=2321 1111  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=021,021,012,007,006,002,006,006   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=01:024
 XRAY-MAX= M2.4   @ 2227UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ 1106UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1215UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.4%
  PCA-MAX= -2.8DB @ 1610UT     PCA-MIN= -3.5DB @ 1445UT    PCA-AVG= -3.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55431NT @ 1343UT   BOUTF-MIN=55400NT @ 1850UT  BOUTF-AVG=55421NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+092NT@ 2040UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 0302UT  G7-AVG=+073,+042,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+100NT@ 2052UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-019NT@ 0335UT  G6-AVG=+083,-012,+034
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,130;SESC:130,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2332 2223 2332 2223  27DAY-AP=018,018   27DAY-KP=2435 4333 2435 4335
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.4/SN@2227UTC,S05W90(7293)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was moderate today by virtue of a class M2.4/SN flare
from departing Region 7293 (S07W84) at 22:27 UT.  This event was accompanied
by a bright surge on the limb.  Region 7301 (S16E12) proved to be the most
active region, but failed to produce anything above a class C1.1 x-ray level.
Slow growth was noted in this region.

     Region 7203 (S13E17) entered a phase of rapid growth and erupted with
two C1 subflares.  The largest C-class flare of the day originated from this
region, which attained a class C1.2/SF level at 16:03 UT.  This group has a
chance for producing minor M-class flare activity.

     Region 7205 also showed minor growth today and produced a minor B-class
subflare, but was otherwise relatively quiet.  Similarly, Region 7294
(S11W63) produced a pair of small subflares and was otherwise quiet.  This
latter region has been decaying slowly.

     New Region 7306 (S08E65) was the only new region assigned.

     Solar activity should continue moderate.  C-class flare activity should
dominate in Regions 7301, 7303 and 7305.  Regions 7303 and 7305 may also
support an isolated M-class flare.

     The geomagnetic field has been quiet over the last 24 hours.  High
latitudes have experienced short periods of active conditions near local
midnight.  The field is expected to continue quiet to unsettled over the next
72 hours.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  No
significant changes are expected over the next three days.  Near-normal
propagation should persist through at least 07 October, barring influential
flare activity.  Daylit paths could experience minor signal absorption due to
possible M-class flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7293  S09W84  068  0040 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7294  S11W62  046  0200 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7295  N13W40  024  0060 CSO  07  003 BETA
7296  N08W39  023  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7298  N16W05  349  0050 CSO  07  009 BETA
7299  N13E12  332  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7300  N13E33  311  0020 BXO  05  008 BETA
7301  S16E12  332  0070 CSO  08  015 BETA
7303  S13E17  327  0030 CSO  03  007 BETA
7304  NO5W08  352  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7305  N12E42  302  0100 DSI  08  012 BETA
7306  S08E65  279  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7302  S12W18  002                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 OCTOBER TO 07 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7280 S12   222


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0013 0013 0013                          140
 0202 0208 0213 7301  S16E26 C1.0  SF    350
 2211 2227 2238 7293  S05W90 M2.4  SN     49 41


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
59   S02E34 S07E29 N03E19 N09E25  324  ISO   POS   005 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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