From: ptfarre@afterlife.ncsc.mil (Peter Farrell)
Newsgroups: soc.religion.christian
Subject: Re: End of the World Predictions: General Theory
Date: 31 Jul 92 07:31:02 GMT
Organization: The Great Beyond

In article <Jul.23.03.37.39.1992.17570@dumas.rutgers.edu> whheydt@pbhya.pacbell.com (Wilson Heydt) writes:
>
>If one were to predict, say, that the references to the world ending
>"before this gneeration passes away" were said to apply to the cohort
>of 1914, and (as some do) there is a claim of an upper bound on human
>lifespan of 120 years, then one can say that such a prediction fails
>if the world is still here in pretty much it's present form after
>2034.
>
>Of the various outstanding End-of-the-World predictions floating about
>various Christian denominations,
>
>1.  What is a plausible date past which a given prediction can be said
>to have failed?  
>
>2.  If you beleive in such a prediction, what effect would such a
>failure have on your beliefs?
>
It would depend greatly, don't you think, on how specific the prediction
is? A noteable and relatively recent failed prediction I can think of
is Hal Lindsey's well known book of 15 years or so back entitled "The
Late Great Planet Earth". 
Mr. Lindsey (spelling possibly wrong, sorry) said, among other things
that a particular super-state of 10 European countries would rise in
fulfillment of Revelation prophecies regarding the anti-christ and
ten horns. If I am not mistaken (don't have the book in front of me)
he claimed this event would happen within 10 years of the book's 
publishing.  That's a pretty specific time frame and so it would very
easy to judge success or failure.
In the succeeding years came follow-ons by Lindsey which I never bothered
to burden myself with in light of the rather obvious empty content of
his first well-publicized attempt at prediction.
A classic example of a failed prediction has got to be William Miller's
hard and firm prediction in the 19th century that Jesus Christ was
to return to the earth in the year 1843. From his studies of Daniel and
Revelation, Miller determined the date and spread his message with vigor.
thousands of people sold their possessions, quit their jobs and joined
him on the appointed date (he actually had it down to that level of
detail) and waited - in vain, obviously - for the end of the world.
When the next day arrived without any trumpets or angels, there were
devastated followers trudging home.  Then, he figured, he had made a 
slight miscalculation; it wasn't 1843, but the following year! Despite
his loss of credibility, he still managed to have a disquietingly large
number of adherents with him again the following year waiting for the end
of history to receive them. This failure shattered Miller and his movement
completely, but a tiny remnant of it endured, holding only loosely to a
small shred of Miller's hypothesis, namely that said day of rapture would
happen on a Saturday. They became known later in history as the Seventh
Day Adventists. As far as I understand (correct me if I am wrong, someone),
to this day, the Seventh Day Adventists hold as an article of faith that
Jesus will come for us all on the seventh day of the week, on Saturday.
Who knows? Perhaps he will. I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
At any rate, the more specific a prediction is, the more vulnerable it
must be.
What think ye?