From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 22:05:58 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 313, 11/08/92
10.7 FLUX=135    90-AVG=124        SSN=094      BKI=3231 1323  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B3.1     FLU1=6.6E+05  FLU10=7.6E+04  PKI=3232 2223  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=021,010,025,006,008,025,015,020   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.0   @ 1425UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 0248UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2305UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +1.3DB @ 1120UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1740UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 1352UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1933UT  BOUTF-AVG=55421NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1849UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 0016UT  G7-AVG=+079,+029,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1845UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-023NT@ 0622UT  G6-AVG=+096,-010,+028
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,140;SESC:130,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,015,020
    KFCST=1113 3111 1113 3111  27DAY-AP=040,013   27DAY-KP=2356 7322 3222 3443
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS
       FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 7330 (S08W23) PRO-
       DUCED TODAY'S LARGEST FLARE, A C5/SN AT 1425Z. THIS GROUP HAS
       SHOWN SOME GROWTH, INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL DELTA
       CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILERS. REGIONS 7334 (N13E32) AND 7335
       (S17E37) CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE SIZED MATURE GROUPS BUT WERE
       STABLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND
       STABLE.

            SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
       LOW TO MODERATE. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN REGION 7330 SUGGEST
       THAT IT NOW HAS FAIR POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-
       CLASS FLARE.

            THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
       LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.

            GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
       EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN IN-
       CREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED ON THE
       THIRD DAY DUE TO RECURRENCE EFFECTS.

            EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV

                             CLASS M    45/45/45
                             CLASS X    05/05/05
                             PROTON     05/05/05
                             PCAF       GREEN

            GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV

                        A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                20/20/35
                        MINOR STORM           10/10/15
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

                        B.  HIGH LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                20/20/35
                        MINOR STORM           10/10/15
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7325  S18W86  329  0030 HSX  04  002 ALPHA
7330  S08W23  266  0440 EKO  11  021 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7332  S24W78  321  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7334  N13E32  211  0200 DAO  10  012 BETA
7335  S17E37  206  0330 DSO  09  008 BETA
7333  N06W09  252                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 NOVEMBER TO 11 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7315 N06   130


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
66   N20W60 N08W68 N17W74 N26W63  323  ISO   POS   007 10830A
67   N30E67 N30E67 N42E37 N44E67  192  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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