From: drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David Robert Walker)
Subject: Re: Holding action in RF for O's
Organization: University of Virginia
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1992 17:13:44 GMT

In article <16DEC199200373574@stdvax> abgem@stdvax (Gary Mosier) writes:
>In article <1992Dec15.094245.25135@Princeton.EDU>, niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent) writes...
>>In article <14DEC199217501074@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu> hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Bruce M Hasch) writes:
>>>In <1gb3o8INNi3q@uwm.edu>, paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger) writes...
>> 
>[ delete lots of stuff about Ripken/Reynolds ]
>
>>>	Unfortunately, I feel that this may be a "shut up the fans" move-
>>>intended to keep the fans believing that the organization is doing something
>>>to improve the team.  Reynolds will be an improvement over Bill, but only
>>>because Bill was so damn awful.  The O's still are mumbling about going into
>>>next season with The Adventures of Chito Martinez and his sidekick Luis
>>>Mercedes, who could combine to form the worst defensive platoon in the history
>>>of the game... (did Reimer and Incaviglia ever play together??? :-)).  
>>>Remember Roland, Reynolds is a good start, but repeat after me--Ruben Sierra--
>>>Ruben Sierra--Ruben Sierra.  Good.
>> 
>>Why?  First of all, I don't think Chito is that bad at all.  Certainly 
>>Mercedes looks like Luis Polonia in the outfield, but Martinez seems
>>decent to me, though I'd love to see what DA has to say.  (I wouldn't
>>put much weight on one year Range Factors, but Sierra was near the
>>bottom, and Martinez was near the top in the AL last year.)

>> 
>>Secondly, I know I'm going to be ridiculed for saying so, but why would 
>>you really rather have Ruben Sierra than Chito Martinez?  I don't think 
>>he's much better.
>> 
>>In fact, looking at James's projections, neither does he:
>>Ruben:  289/344/474
>>Chito:  252/330/463
>> 
>>They are actually the same age, 27.  Certainly Ruben looks a little
>>better, and his upside potential is much greater than Chito Martinez's,
>>but is he worth the four or five million more?  I don't think so.  Basically,
>>Ruben Sierra is pretty overrated.  I'd rather see the money spent on Mark 
>>McGwire.  Or Barry Bonds.  (Oh well.  Damn.  Maybe Bob Lurie will cancel
>>his contract again though.  I can always hope.)

Over the past 5 years, I have Sierra with a .273 EQA, but he is one of
those unstable ones: .244 in '88, then .297, then .258, then back to
.296, then back down to .266. He is established as being able to hit
about .300 equivalent, though, and that is damn good.

Chito, though, I really like, and wish he would play more often. His
'88 Southern league season was only worth a .208 EQA. But in 89, still
at Memphis, he comes up to .237: major league average. In 90 at Omaha
he rises to .266. In 91 at Rochester he goes crazy and has a .314;
called up to Baltimore he registers .271. Last year the slugging
dropped 100 points but the onbase average went up by 60: EQA of .265.
His 5-year average is only .251, but when you have trends like his you
can throw the first two years out the window. I am very comfortable
with a .265 EQA projection, say .254, .332, .467. Wow. Pretty much the
same as James, and by a completely different method.
>> 
>>On the other hand, it's worse than what you're saying; the platoon is
>>more likely to be Martinez/Mercedes/Segui.  Ouch.  Just what the Orioles
>>needed.  A first baseman who hits like a middle infielder playing the
>>outfield.

Segui is one of my problem players. His minor league totals project to
a .255 EQA: .287/.359/.382. His actual performance has been a .213
EQA, .254/.312/.328. Maybe he can grow some sideburns and do what
Brady did, live up to minor league projections a couple of years down
the road.

>>As long as we don't get Harold Baines, who the Orioles were also
>>interested in at one time, though. 
>
>I get the impression that the O's are merely biding their time until 
>Jeffrey Hammonds is ready to play OF and bat leadoff, envisioning an 
>outfield of Anderson-Devereaux-Hammonds. Two problems here: none of these 
>guys has the classic right fielder's arm, and Brady's a one-year wonder if 
>I ever saw one (Brady fans - I hope I eat those words, OK?).
>

The Orioles as I see them (.235 is league average by definition)
(All figures are Equivalent average unless noted)

C: Hoiles had a .302 EQA in '92, and followed a consistent pattern of
taking a year to get used to the league he was in. (Last year at AA,
.273. First year at AAA, .222. Second year at AAA, .348. First year at
Balt., .226. Second year at Balt., .302.) Age 28. 5-year average .263.

Tackett had a .229 in '92, the first time he ever had a line over
.193. Is 27. 5-yr average .177. Project .200. Yech. 

Doug Robbins is 26 this year: last three years are .201, .242, .270,
at AA, AA, and AAA. Very promising; takes the walk well.

1b: Glenn's 5-yr is .278, but the last two are .251/.260. Age 32,
injury status unknown. Hope for .260, pray for the .280s he posted in
Houston. Milligan's years are curved: .258, .293, .314, .265, .260.
Had the .314 at age 28, will be 31. Hope he can hold .260, but not
surprised by a fall to .240 or .250. Segui I mentionned above; if he
can come to .250, his glove at first makes him the best one.

2b: Reynolds. 32. Last 5: .231, .243, .235, .229, .212. A repeat of
last year's .212 will still be better than Billy's .185 last year, and
.190 5yr ave. (Its better than David Howard! what a rally cry.)
McLemore had a .206 last year, .198 total. Scarsone had a .221 at
Rochester, .197 5yr. 

ss: Cal. 32. (Popular age for Orioles, huh?) .280, .241, .259, .322,
.231. Total .267; likely projection .250. 

3b: Gomez, 26. Last year had a .265 EQA, with a 267/353/429 line. 5yr
figures for him are 263, with 256/351/426. Major league figures still
lag minor league numbers, I think a .280 is well within reach, but
I'll be conservative and stick with a .265.

lf: Anderson, 29. His major league numbers for the last 5 are .171,
.218, .227, .225, and .289. Minor league EQAs were .276, .193, .335,
and .324 in usually limited time. The total average for everything is
.244; I'll give him .250.

cf: Devereaux, 30. .253 in minors in '88, then .242, .226, .249, .264.
Mean for the total is .246. I'll say .250.

rf: Chito is shown above, say .265. Mercedes line, all minors, is
.226, .252, .268, .246. I'll say .245 equivalent; a .290 BA and .350
OBA is reasonable, with good base-stealing potential. But by all
accounts a bad attitude and a field butcher. He's 25. If they split time
evenly, then a .255 out of the platoon; a little better than Slidin'
Joe's .249 over the last 5 years.

dh: Whichever of Milligan/Davis/Martinez isn't in the field, plus a
little Horn; age 29, .254 over 5yr (251 major, 259 minor).

So this is a team with conservative projections of .260 at C, .255 1b,
.215 2b, .250 ss, .265 3b, .250 lf, .250 cf, .250 rf, .250 dh. An
extremely balanced lineup that averages a .250 eqa; that is over 800
runs. That is one excellent lineup. Since the starting pitching looks
average at bestafter Mussina, they will probably need it.

Clay D.
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