From: CZ94@MUSICA.MCGILL.CA (CZ94)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.canada,can.politics
Subject: H of C seats (was Re: I was going to vote...)
Date: 16 Oct 92 18:41:15 GMT
Organization: McGill University

In article <t!8-KBA@engin.umich.edu> marky@engin.umich.edu (Mark Anthony Young) writes:
>
>The first two tables below show Quebec's position after the 1971 and 1981
>census redistributions (carried out in the middle of each decade).
>
>1971    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
>----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
>Nfld       7        522         7         0
>PEI        4        112         1        +3
>NS        11        789        10        +1
>NB        10        635         8        +2
>Que       74      6 028        74         0
>Ont       88      7 703        94        -6
>Man       13        988        12        +1
>Sask      13        926        11        +2
>Alta      19      1 628        20        -1
>BC        23      2 185        27        -4
>YT         1         18         0        +1
>NWT        1         35         0        +1
>-------------------------------------
>Can      264     21 568       264
>
There's a mistake here.  You have the 1971 populations, which
you've used to calculate the rep-by-pop numbers, but the real
number of seats you give are those based on the 1961 census.
From the 1971 redistribution, we have:

1971    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
Nfld       7        522         7         0
PEI        4        112         2        +2
NS        11        789        10        +1
NB        10        635         8        +2
Que       75      6 028        79        -4
Ont       95      7 703        94        -6
Man       14        988        12        +1
Sask      14        926        11        +2
Alta      21      1 628        20        -1
BC        28      2 185        27        -4
YT         1         18         0        +1
NWT        2         35         0        +1
-------------------------------------
Can      282     21 568       264

>1981    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
>----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
>Nfld       7        568         7         0
>PEI        4        123         2        +2
>NS        11        847        10        +1
>NB        10        696         8        +2
>Que       75      6 438        78        -3
>Ont       99      8 625       105        -6
>Man       14      1 026        12        +2
>Sask      14        968        12        +2
>Alta      26      2 238        27        -1
>BC        32      2 745        33        -1
>YT         1         23         0        +1
>NWT        2         46         1        +1
>-------------------------------------
>Can      295     24 343       295
>
>Quebec is at par in the first distribution, and only under-represented by
>three seats in the second.  Ontario is short six seats in both cases.  BC was
>short by four seats in the 1971 distribution -- worse than Quebec's showing in
>either case.
>
>The next table gives the distribution of the House under the next election, as
>called for by the Cha'town accord.
>
>1991    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
>----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
>Nfld       7        568         7         0
>PEI        4        130         2        +2
>NS        11        900        11         0
>NB        10        624         8        +2
>Que       93      6 896        86        +7
>Ont      117     10 085       125        -8
>Man       14      1 092        13        +1
>Sask      14        989        12        +2
>Alta      28      2 546        31        -3
>BC        36      3 282        41        -5
>YT         1         28         0        +1
>NWT        2         58         1        +1
>-------------------------------------
>Can      337     27 297       337
>
>Quebec is suddenly over-represented by seven seats.  Quebec is the sole
>beneficiary of the additional seats (all other provinces are the same or worse
>as they were before).
>
>Quebec's over-representation is not as bad as it sounds, tho', because this
>distribution will likely only be used once.  After the '96 census, there will
>be another (special) redistribution.
>
>The next table gives Tom Box's estimates for the post-96 House.  He used the
>1991 population figures together with the rules given in the Cha'town accord
>to come up with these estimates. The Cha'town accord calls for the '96 figures
>to be used, but we obviously don't have those yet.
>
>1996    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
>----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
>Nfld       8        568         7        +1
>PEI        4        130         2        +2
>NS        12        900        12         0
>NB        10        624         8        +2
>Que       93      6 896        91        +2
>Ont      126     10 085       133        -7
>Man       15      1 092        14        +1
>Sask      14        989        13        +1
>Alta      32      2 546        34        -2
>BC        41      3 282        43        -2
>YT         1         28         0        +1
>NWT        2         58         1        +1
>-------------------------------------
>Can      358     27 297       358
>
>Because of the redistribution, Quebec's over-representation is down to a more
>reasonable two seats.  Ontario, BC and Alberta are the only under-represented
>provinces.  Ontario's seven seat deficit is larger than anything in the '71
>or '81 Houses.
>
>Now if this were the end of it, I would have no problem with the HoC.  Quebec
>could go on being over-represented by two seats indefinitely without causing
>me any distress.  But Quebec's 25% guarantee gets in the way.  I have posted
>figures before to support my contention that by the middle of the next
>century, Quebec will have only about twenty percent of Canada's population.
>
>Here is how that chart might look in 2041.  These numbers are based on the
>growth in each province since 1971.  Taking a longer base leads to larger
>populations, a shorter base to smaller, but the percent of total population is
>fairly constant over many bases.
>
>2041    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
>----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
>Nfld       6        702         5        +1
>PEI        4        189         1        +3
>NS        10      1 251         9        +1
>NB        10      1 005         7        +3
>Que       95      9 653        70       +25
>Ont      124     19 780       143       -19
>Man       10      1 402        10         0
>Sask      10      1 166         8        +2
>Alta      49      7 787        56        -7
>BC        57      9 075        66        -9
>YT         1         85         1         0
>NWT        2        205         2         0
>-------------------------------------
>Can      378     52 300       378
>
>I calculated these numbers as follows:
>
>    a) Start with the 1996 size House (358 seats).
>    b) Reserve 25% of the seats for Quebec (leaves 268 seats).
>    c) Reserve three seats for the territories (leaves 265 seats).
>    d) Distribute these seats to the nine remaining provinces according to
>       population.
>    e) Raise the representation of any province that does not meet its fixed
>       floor (this gets all the Atlantic provinces).
>    f) Raise the representation of any province that has less seats than a
>       smaller province (this gets Manitoba and Saskatchewan).
>    g) Raise Quebec's representation until it meets the 25% floor.
>
>Note that this House is so small that seven provinces are running up against
>their minimums.  However, making the House any larger would only make Quebec's
>over-representation (already over twenty seats) worse.  (If we put the rising
>floor constraint back in, Quebec could be over-represented by thirty-three
>seats!)
>
>So, I hope it is obvious to all that the proposed 25% floor is way out of
>proportion to any deviations from rep-by-pop that we've seen in the past.
>
>....mark young
>
>.
>.
Newsgroups: soc.culture.canada,can.politics