HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David Robert Walker)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: BAERGA best AL 2d base ever?
Date: 5 Oct 92 15:00:35 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of Virginia

In article <4OCT199219572316@juliet.caltech.edu> aaron@juliet.caltech.edu (Packman, Aaron I.) writes:
>In article <1992Oct4.175048.19355@midway.uchicago.edu>, thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes...
>
>I think your stats show Alomar to be the best AL 2b-man this year.  Seriously
>now, the only advantage Baerga has is more HR.  As to the best of all time,
>let me offer the following:
>
>Batter	        BA   SLG   OBP   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI  BB SO SB CS E
>Lajoie, 1901  .426  .643  .451 145 544 145 232 350 48 14 14 125  24 NA 27 NA NA
>
>NA = not available
>
>I might also add that Lajoie let the league in R, H, 2B, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, & SLG
>that year.  
>
>Aaron Packman
>aaron@caltech.edu

You can also add that he had the fewest errors of any regular 2B, that
he led the league in fielding average (.960; second best was .940),
that he led in putouts (395) and led in TC/G (6.8). Don't know what he
did in the 12 games he played at SS.  You should also take into
account that it was an expansion league, and the competitive level was
low; that inflates his stats somewhat. (I don't have the ratings in
front of me, but its comparable to letting Bonds play at AAA all year.)

Clay D.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: NL ROY: More Fuel for Debate
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 92 01:42:42 GMT

In article <6416@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:

>RC/27 refers to what an idealized team of 9 copies of these players would
>do.  There is NO WAY, none, to translate those numbers into estimates of
>their actual value as one of nine players in a real lineup, even a hypothetical
>average one.  Ditto for an alleged "replacement level" player.  You can't just
>subtract one player's RC/27 from another's to find the difference, because
>RC/27's aren't additive.

But we aren't adding anything here.

Besides, just because teams like to stock on low-OBP/high-SLG players doesn't
mean that that is the way that teams should be run.

Besides, if a lineup will score 5 runs a game, and another will score 4,
isn't there a 1-run difference between these lineups?
>
>Extreme example:  consider two players, me and Frank Thomas, in the context
>of Gary Huckabay's SVBL league.  Frank would have an RC/27 of about 80, while
>I would have an RC/27 of about 0.1.  However, if you consider what happens
>when you replace Huckabay with me or Frank, this alleged 80 run difference
>per game vanishes.  The Cephalopods-with-Frank score 15 runs per game, while
>the Cephalopods-with-Tate score 4 or 5 runs per game.  (Sorry about that,
>Huck.)  RC/27 is all but unrelated to actual marginal contribution to a real
>lineup.  This is why MLVs were invented.  The RC/27 difference drastically
>overestimates the actual lineup-effect difference, for players noticeably far
>from the mean in RC/27.  As a result, using this difference, even in normalized
>form and scaled by plate appearances, is nonsense.

And a big, BIG problem with your MLV, Dave, is that it is *very* difficult to
calculate.  *Ideally*, you can't tell the whole story from OBP, SLG, or
whatever stat, but rather, you should be able to get the records of who made
an out on the basepaths not shown by stats, who advanced an extra base, etc.,
and figure them in the RC model.  *But* we don't have those available.  What
you lose by using MLV is accessability.

Besides, the example you gave above is way too extreme to be a possibility.
These are major league players we are talking about, after all.  And I don't
think that MLV will be able to derive the Thomas effect in your example
correctly, either.

And yes, it is possible to have 9 Eddie Gaedels in the lineup. :-)

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt "Some Guy" Bose)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: AL Rookie of Year Award?
Date: 29 Sep 92 01:13:31 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

In article <steph.717717072@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu> steph@cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson) writes:
>In <1992Sep25.050240.2328@panix.com> spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira) writes:
>
>>But the basic "problem" with Lofton is this: the best centerfielder in
>>baseball probably isn't worth as much defensively as the worst defensive
>>shortstop.  
>
>This seems too strong to me.
>
Agreed, but...

>Thought to ponder:  if Frank Thomas (with existing range, arm, and glovework)
>were placed at shortstop, would he really be more valuable defensively than
>Wally Joyner or Mark McGwire?

Oh, please!  I don't mean to be abusive or anything here, but you have to admit
this is a stupid argument.  I'm not just referring to your "thought" here, but
the whole point.

First of all, with the Listach/Lofton comment, it's silly to even attempt to
argue that Listach is a butcher, since he's above average defensively, and
it's silly to annoint Lofton as a god of CF because of his assist total at this
point.  Until you have the data to show that a high number of baserunners were
trying to take a base on the rookie, the raw numbers of assists don't show the
whole story.  How many players tried to take a base on Lofton?  On the average 
CF?

The other point is that shortstop _IS_ a more difficult position than center
fielder.  You don't see CFs coming in to play SS; you see a SS learning how to
play in center (cf. Robin Yount, Eric Davis).  Got a thought to ponder for you:
would Listach at CF be more valuable than Lofton at SS?

Look, you and I both know what Greg's statement means.  If a player in CF could 
play SS, he'd be playing SS. (This is on a regular basis; one inning in a long
game doesn't cut it.)  There is no "replacement level" for that; either you 
can or you can't.  Lofton is playing CF rather than SS; therefore he's worse
at SS than Mark Lewis.

We could argue semantics all week about whether Andy Van Slyke is more valuable
defensively than Rafael Ramirez, but who gives a damn?  The question is Lofton
vs. Listach, and it's been repeatedly established that a good SS is more 
valuable than a good CF.  Listach isn't a butcher, and Lofton isn't a god.


-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) * kbos@carina.unm.edu * Make..oh, you know.---
-"The fatal tendency of mankind to leave off thinking about a thing when it is--
--no longer doubtful is the cause of half their errors.  The cause of the other-
---half can be attributed to playing Jose Offerman at short." - John Stuart Mill
From: jjd@TEAK.CRAY.COM (Jeff Drummond)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Oakland as King-Maker?
Date: 30 Sep 92 21:24:31 GMT

Organization: Cray Research, Inc.

In article <1992Sep30.155839.5988@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>Interesting situation:
>
>The last three games of Milwaukee's season are in Oakland.
>
>Oakland could control who they get to face in the playoffs--it's to their
>advantage to make the race in the East as close as possible (and maybe
>even come to the 163d game).  The more important those last three games
>are to Milwaukee and Toronto, the more likely they are to use importnat
>pitchers and have them tired out for the seven game series...

Nothing new here.  Same thing happened last year when the Blue Jays (who
hadn't yet clinched) played the Twins (who had clinched) in the last week
of the season.  However, I suspect Oakland will do the same thing that
Minnesota did last year:  get their starting rotation set for the
play-offs and rest some regulars.  I don't think Oakland will take those
games any more seriously than Minnesota did last year.

>Of course, what d'ya expect from seven team divisions? 

I'm afraid we'll all have to just get used to it.  There will be two more
seven-team divisions next year.

>-- 
>           .. . . .  .  .   .    .     .     .    .   .  .  . . . ..
>          ted frank | thf2@midway.uchicago.edu | standard disclaimers
>         the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637

-Jeff    jjd@cray.com
--
"The Manager doesn't talk, he manages.
When the pennant is won,
the players say, 'Amazing:
we did it all by ourselves!'"
-Lao "Lefty" Tzu in _The_Tao_of_Baseball_, Chapter 17.
From: chandoni@husc8.harvard.edu (John-Marc Chandonia, , , )
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)
Date: 2 Oct 92 16:36:07 GMT
Article-I.D.: husc3.1992Oct2.123608.16024
Reply-To: chandoni@husc8.harvard.edu
Originator: chandoni@husc8.harvard.edu

In article <69711@hydra.gatech.EDU>, jg10@prism.gatech.EDU (GILMORE,JOHN F) writes:
> The Braves are going with a 3 man rotation for the NLCS. They have dropped the
> sore-armed Pena and will used Pete Smith and Charles Liebrandt (ugh!) in 
> relief roles.

Pete should start game 4.  Smoltz has been very inconsistent lately
and should not be given the chance to pitch up to three games.  If the
Braves do win, Smoltz will be too tired to pitch well in the WS.
Also, by the time Bobby takes out his starting pitcher it's usually
too late... I hope he puts winning games in the LCS ahead of his
starters' egos.

JMC
-- 
chandoni@husc8.harvard.edu    | I will not yell fire in a crowded classroom
John-Marc Chandonia           | I will not yell fire in a crowded classroom
Graduate Biophysics Program   | I will not yell fire in a crowded classroom 
Harvard University            | I will not yell fire ...
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols)
Subject: Correction to previous post
Organization: Adobe Systems Incorporated
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 20:20:27 GMT

I made a mistake in the last post concerning how often a batter ended up
beyond first on an infield error, and said it was 7% of the time.  It's
actually 15%; the 7% number comes from the difference in how often the
batter ends up beyond first on an infield error, and how often the batter
ends up beyond first on a ground ball hit (8%).

Sherri Nichols
snichols@adobe.com


Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: stanm@comm.mot.com (Stan Macasieb)
Subject: GMaddux Wins #20!!!
Reply-To: stanm@comm.mot.com
Organization: Motorola
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 21:01:53 GMT


Greg Maddux went the route this afternoon for his 20th victory as the Cubs
defeated the NLEast champion Pirates 6-0. Ryne Sandberg went 4 for 4, and
Luis Salazar hit the gamebreaking two-run triple in the sixth inning.

Maddux (20-11) is the first Cubs pitcher since Rick Reuschel in 1977 to 
win 20 games. It's also the first time in 20 years since both Chicago teams
had 20-game winners. Jack McDowell of the White Sox won his 20th game 
earlier this month.


******************************************************************************
--Stan Macasieb (stanm@comm.mot.com)              |  1992 Election Ballot
--Motorola, Land Mobile Products Sector           |  
--Schaumburg, IL (just another suburb of Chicago) |  For President-
--------------------------------------------------|
~~The opinion expressed in this post is not       |  ___ George Bush (GOP)
~~necessarily those of this corporation.          |  ___ Bill Clinton (Dem)
~~Copyright 1992, all rights reserved.            |  ___ H Ross Perot (Weenie)
******************************************************************************

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dave@moore.com (Dave Rooney)
Subject: Blue Jay Probabilities
Organization: Moore Corporation Limited, Toronto ON, Canada
X-Newsreader: Tin 1.1 PL5
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 92 18:38:57 GMT

As of Thursday morning October 1st, there are 20 possible outcomes to
the American League East pennant race. 17 of these result in the Blue
Jays clinching! while only 1 results in a Brewer victory - 2 result
in a tie. The Blue Jay success percentage is 85%.

After tonights Brewer game, there will be 16 possible outcomes with
two scenarios depending on the winner of tonight's game.

If the Brewers lose tonight, the Jays chances become 94% successful -
they clinch in 15 of the possible 16 outcomes. They are guaranteed at
least a tie.

If the Brewers win (perish the thought) the Jays chances drop to 81.25%.
They would clinch in 13 of the possible outcomes, the Brewers would win in
1, and the  other 2 outcomes would result in ties.

So...it looks pretty good! 

...David Rooney (with help from Kevin)
-- 
David Rooney
Moore Corporation Limited, Toronto, Ontario (416) 364-2600
dave@moore.com    -or-    {...!uunet,...!telly}!moore!dave
"...take a sad song and make it better."/JL&PMcC'68
From: TW.N82@isumvs.iastate.edu (BOB.PEDERSEN)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: FAQ?
Date: 2 Oct 92 17:58:03 GMT
Article-I.D.: news.1992Oct2.175803.17929
Organization: Iowa State University, Ames IA

In my teeth-chattering excitement over the A.L.East pennant race (I
favor the Blue Jays, but the Brewers have been so AWESOME, it's
getting hard to root against them!!!), I seem to have somehow missed
the most recent version of the FAQ, apparently posted this week.  I
looked for it at the archive site, but couldn't find it.  Could some
kind soul send it to me at tw.n82@iastate.edu?  Bless you.

By the way, thanks to all who posted or mailed answers to my "Odd
Questions" post.  I owe a couple of you individual responses, and
will get to that soon.


--
Bob Pedersen
Recent graduate and flunkie, Iowa State University
Future Library Science student, University of Iowa
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Citecheck Hell)
Subject: Re: BAERGA best AL 2d base ever? 
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 1992 17:50:48 GMT

Sorry to follow up my own post, but thought I'd post some supporting stats.

In article <1992Oct4.172603.18687@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>Given that he isn't even the best AL 2nd-baseman this year, this probably
>isn't accurate.  (I'd still put Alomar and Whitaker ahead of Baerga, though
>Carlos should be ahead of Lou next year.)

BATTERS        BA   SLG   OBP   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS  E
BAERGA,C     .309  .454  .350 154 628  88 194 285 29  1 20 103  32  73 10  2 18
WHITAKER,L   .281  .469  .391 126 437  76 123 205 25  0 19  70  80  45  5  4  9
KNOBLAUCH,C  .301  .360  .385 148 572  99 172 206 18  5  2  54  82  59 32 12  5
ALOMAR,R     .310  .423  .405 148 558 102 173 236 26  8  7  73  85  51 47  9  5

-- 
ted frank | thf2@midway.uchicago.edu | standard disclaimers
the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
ajax crypto-analyzer -- warning! remove all chicken bones first
From: nss3@kimbark.uchicago.edu (Noel Steere)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: What is baseball?
Date: 30 Sep 92 22:47:52 GMT
Reply-To: nss3@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations

In article <1992Sep28.181121.4516@adobe.com> snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols) writes:
>In article <1992Sep28.175947.13502@cs.brown.edu> cs169061@cs.brown.edu (Michael Kalman) writes:
>>          Your perfectly right that the game is roughly 50% total 
>>hitting, and 50% total pitching+defense.  But when most people 
>>refer to pitching being more important than hitting, what they're
>>really talking about is how to best build a winning ballclub.
>>
>>        The ratio of batters to pitchers is about 3:2 (~10 pitchers 
>>per 25 man roster).  Since pitching is by far the most important
>>factor in how many runs a team will allow, a team can improve 
>>more in the runs-allowed category by adding 'x' number of pitchers
>>than it can improve its runs-scored by adding 'x' number of 
>>hitters.   
>...
>>         Moreover, when you add extra pitchers to a ballclub, 
>>you can bump off the weakest pitchers from those you already
>>have. But this doesn't work as well for hitters because 
>>acquiring a great hitting firstbasemen doesn't let you
>>bump a weak hitting shortstop from the lineup.  
>
>These are good points, but there's also a flip side to the issue: namely,
>that individual hitters are more consistent year to year than are
>individual pitchers.  

Very true.  Of course, this makes guys like Roger Clemens, who are
consistently *great*, and even guys like Greg Maddux, who are
consistently very good to great, the most valuable on any team, since
they pitch about 1/7th of a teams IP.

I definitely agree with Michael's points, and think that this is the
proper way to think about the value of pitching when compared to
hitting.  The problem is, of course, that people (i.e., mediots and
the pre-celibate Kirsch) simplify this and spew stuff like "pitching
is 70-90% of baseball.  Actually, "simplify" isn't the word I'm
looking for, since I don't think they understand what Michael's
talking about in the first place, but I'm in a hurry.

Noel Steere                  |...of the Dave Rossing fan club
GM/Manager, New York Knights |Knights' Run Total: 467 Runs in 93 games
Internet Baseball League     |Projected Season Total: 813  Target: 1000!
nss3@midway.uchicago.edu     |HECTOR VILLANUEVA FOR PRESIDENT
                             |(Heck, the Cubs sure aren't using him!)
Make outs, not walks!        |OMAR VIZQUEL FOR VICE-PRESIDENT
(well, Joe *said* I said it!)|(Or at least a Gold Glove!) [Woof!]
From: usr147@faultln.UUCP
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Wow!
Date: Sun, 04 Oct 92 20:55:03 PDT

     Do you send about three hours writting those big long letters? Well any
way the A'S have it I hope. If they can make it past the browers.
(HEHEHEHEH). I love the A'S dso they have a good tolte of hgome runs!



Blast

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dougb@comm.mot.com (Doug Bank)
Subject: Re: Cy Young?
Reply-To: dougb@ecs.comm.mot.com
Organization: Motorola Land Mobile Products Sector
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1992 19:49:26 GMT

In article <1992Oct2.135525.19552@dartvax.dartmouth.edu>, riff@coos.dartmouth.edu (Christopher P. Riff) writes:

|> Does anyone know if Lefebvre will (or would have had Maddux not won on
|> Wednesday) pitch Maddux on 3 days rest in the Cubs final game on Sunday?

Maddux WAS already pitching on three days rest on Wednesday.  The guys on
WGN radio suspect that they will pitch him again on three days rest
if Maddux wants another start.

-- 
Doug Bank                       Private Systems Division
dougb@ecs.comm.mot.com          Motorola Communications Sector
dougb@nwu.edu                   Schaumburg, Illinois
dougb@casbah.acns.nwu.edu       708-576-8207                    
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Citecheck Hell)
Subject: Re: Elias/STATS projections
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 05:12:09 GMT

In article <92272.184124RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes:
>re: stats 57 points off, elias 82 points off (or whatever).
>
>i wouldn't say "stats' predictions are better than elias' predictions,"
>i would say "stats' predictions and elias' predictions are both bullshit."
>
>i tried this at the all-star break:  i only considered batting average,
>because i am lazy, and compared stats to elias.  i found they both bit the
>big wazoo.  i then made up my own idiotic prediction system, which was
>this: assume everyone is a perfectly average batter.
>
>my idiotic system actually predicted batting average better than either
>stats OR elias did.

What do you mean "better"?  Least squares?

At any rate, at the all-star break is only little more than half a season.
And batting average predictions aren't all that worthwhile to begin with.
If James can't do better than a dartboard (or just repeating last year's
performance_ wrt OPS, then I'd worry but until then, I have more faith
in James over a full season than James over 100-300 AB.
-- 
           .. . . .  .  .   .    .     .     .    .   .  .  . . . ..
          ted frank | thf2@midway.uchicago.edu | standard disclaimers
         the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: mjones@fenway.aix.kingston.ibm.com (Mike Jones)
Subject: Re: Lead off walks....
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 92 21:50:50 GMT
Reply-To: mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com
Organization: IBM Corp. Kingston NY

In article <2312@h.cs.wvu.wvnet.edu> hobbs@a.cs.wvu.wvnet.edu (Gerald R Hobbs) writes:
|>Effect of first event in inning, both leagues, 1984-1991
|>Leadoff		Prob of >= 1 run	Avg. number of runs
|>-------------------------------------------------------------
|>single		.428			.855
|>walk		.432			.865
|>error		.441			.867
|>out		.156			.255
|>other		.742		       1.215
|
|...The error part is
|interesting though. Evidently the pitcher 1) threw strikes and
|2) induced the batter to hit a playable ball so why should the 
|scoring rates be higher? Well, two things come to mind. The error
|may have been a more than one base error (of course a single can
|be followed by by a same play error too). The other is that the 
|sample size for the error line above is probably pretty small
|and so the resulting estimate isn't very precise.

Another item I think could be significant is that errors are more likely to
be commited by bad teams. Errors are not distributed randomly among
fielders; Jose Offerman and Ryne Sandburg are not equally likely to make an
error. Teams that put a lot of bad fielders out on the field (see Dodgers
and Red Sox) tend to a) make more errors and therefore b) allow more runs.
 
   Mike Jones  |  AIX/ESA Development  |  mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com

A host is a host from coast to coast
And no one will talk to a host that's close
Unless the host (that isn't close)
is busy, hung or dead
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Subject: Re: Morris: more fuel for this debate
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 17:20:28 GMT
Organization: Boo!  

>> In article <1992Sep28.173858.3022@unixg.ubc.ca> stlouis@unixg.ubc.ca (Phill St. Louis) writes:
>> 
>>>Has anyone noticed that Morris has only been allowing a BA of .204 at home?
>>>The Skydome is a hitters ballpark and he is allowing only .204!!  This is
>>>#1 in the League among pitchers who were on opening-day American League ML 
>>>rosters for.  
>> 
Just want to note that despite all its wacky behavior Skydome does not
appear to be a hitters' ballpark.  It has depressed run scoring by about
1% this year, and over the course of its existence it's basically been
neutral.

Greg
From: gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Mets apology
Date: 6 Oct 92 02:35:47 GMT
Organization: Somewhere in Hoboken


just for information across the net...

themets took out full page ads in 4 or 5 new york newspapers, 
 apologizing for the bad season, and thanking the fans for coming
 out in hard times, bad weather, injuries, etc.

and "signed' by all the players, manager, owner, etc.

what does anyone out there think?  - bob gaj
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball