From: Chris.Holt@newcastle.ac.uk (Chris Holt)
Newsgroups: alt.desert-storm
Subject: Re: Iraqis attempt to kill UN inspectors
Date: 31 Aug 92 15:46:47 GMT
Organization: University of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, NE1 7RU

dam@dcs.glasgow.ac.uk (David Morning) writes:
>drm@esl.com (Don McGregor) writes:

>>Fearless prediction: The US and allies bomb Baghdad and selected
>>RG targets, and announce that Saddam must go.  Revolts in the
>>North and South are given air cover.  With a clear commitment from
>>the US that Saddam will be toppled, one way or another, coup planning
>>increases.  Saddam buys it from a bomb (low but non-trivial possibility)
>>or a 9 mm slug.  It's unclear that Iraq remains as a united state after
>>all this, which is a loss.  Clinton and the congress would instantly climb on
>>board for this one, for a null op to slight Bush bounce in the polls.

>I don't buy it Don. There appears to be a great reluctance to go back to
>bombing Bagdahd for what-ever reasons.

I think it will depend on the popularity polls in the US in the next
month.  If it's greater than 10 points, expect drastic action.

>It's more likely that the signal for a further revolt would be the assassination
>of Hussein, but, given the severe pounding the Kurds in the North and the
>Shi-ites in the south took from the RG after the initial coup, it's doubtful
>if the could raise an effective fighting force, air cover or not.

A successful assassination seems unlikely, given the past few years.
Lots of people may hate Hussein, but I'd be surprised if they fancy
their own chances in the hotseat; and they all hate the US after the
last war, I would guess.  It would be more difficult than getting
the Nicaraguans to vote for the US party, because more lives were
lost quicker.

>In the event of a successful revolt, it's almost certain that Iraq would
>fragment, with a Kurdistan being formed in the north, bagging a chunk of
>Iraqs' oil reservers.

And interesting implications for the rest of the Kurdish territory;
Turkey etc. wouldn't be pleased.

>It's also probable that a Shi-ite state in the South
>would be formed, aligning itself with Iran.

I'm not convinced that the South of Iraq would align itself with
Iran; again, there was too much blood spilt too recently for anything
like that to be politically popular.  [Perhaps my doubts come from
having lived in Northern Ireland for a while. :-\]

>Iraq would then be left as an
>ineffective state in the middle with Iran now the major power in the Gulf
>area of the Middle East and that's something the vast majority of the Arab
>states DON'T want to see.

This would be true even if alliances don't form.  However, I'm not
so sure that the other mid-eastern countries are as vehemently against
it as they used to be.  Iran's influence on fundamentalists seems
to be waning somewhat, everyone knows a kind of breathing space
is needed if the Israeli talks are to get anywhere, and there's
lots of pressure from immigrant populations.  Jordan, Syria, and
Kuwait could put up with a weakened Iraq :-); Saudi Arabia would
try to maintain stability as always; Egypt's fundamentalists aren't
directly Iran-based; so who would be the major actor?  [Libya's too
far away to do anything other than support insurgency of one form
or another.]

>>Why: I don't see a merely punative expedition as being saleable to the
>>US public.  If we're going to start shooting again, the gov't will want
>>to take him off the board once and for all, and stop all this nonsense
>>about "cheat and retreat" on the ceasefire agreement.  A commitement
>>to removing him will start people thinking about who takes his place
>>afterwards.

This is why the support time profile is so important.  There would
be an initial surge of support behind Bush, which would die away
quickly; but if he does it at the wrong time, it would look like
politics, which would reduce the overall support.  I'll bet there
are a number of very bright people working at maximizing Bush's
support on November 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Chris.Holt@newcastle.ac.uk      Computing Lab, U of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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  Still shone the candlelight on the empty screen, after the power went.