From: roten@cuba.gsfc.nasa.gov (Charles Roten)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.asian.american
Subject: Re: Super Power in new century and Yellow Peril
Date: 22 Dec 92 22:40:24 GMT
Organization: /cuba_b/dirbe/roten/.organization
X-Newsreader: GNU Emacs 18.57.1, GNUS 3.13, NNTP 3.10

Sometimes, I just _cannot_ believe the things I read in some of these 
groups ....  

Over the last few months, I have carefully refrained from flaming Dwight 
Joe.  But some temptations go _waaaay_ past the elastic limit of my self-
control.  :-)  If you really aren't interested in having the failings of 
s.c.a.a's answer to Hasan B. Mutlu exposed yet once again, please feel 
free to hit 'n'.

In article <1278@xlnt.COM> david@elwood.NoSubdomain.NoDomain 
(David Johnson) writes:

>underdog@leland.Stanford.EDU (Dwight Joe) writes:
>>In the very likely event that China terrorizes another nation (like 
>>possibly the Republic of Taiwan in the future), that Japanese prime 
>>minister can, with the cooperation of the USA, successfully direct its 
>>military forces to send the Chinese armies to Almighty God.

Unbelievable !  

I have summed up the strategic balance across the Taiwan Strait before, 
in other forums.  In short, it is a rather stable stalemate, which both 
sides seem to be seeking to make stabler yet by their economic policies.  
The PRC simply DOES NOT PRESENTLY POSSESS the ability to project 
sufficient (and sufficently sophisticated) military power past her 
borders (and ESPECIALLY across a water barrier, as in the case of Taiwan) 
to pose a high intensity threat to Taiwan !  You don't believe me ?  
Look into what poses as the PLAAF some day .. numbers and types of 
aircraft, avionics, training, operational doctrine .. it gets VERY low 
marks in all departments.  And this force would HAVE to be the cornerstone 
of any PRC move against Taiwan.  I could give you almost as negative an 
assessment for the PRC ground forces _WHEN_ _USED_ _OFFENSIVELY_.  
Remember their little soiree in North Vietnam in '79 ?  You betcha the 
PLA planners do .. not with any great pride (having had their butts 
royally kicked) but they _do_ remember !!  

But when used _DEFENSIVELY_, against a move by Japan (or even Japan + USA ) 
against the mainland, I suspect they would perform quite creditably.  As 
the USSR so amply demonstrated 50 years ago, you can defend against a 
smaller combined-arms invasion force rather well with an infantry army 
(which is what they had, BTW, and what the PRC has today), given that the 
people in control of the defence know their jobs, and also given room to 
maneuver.  

China is not Kuwait, where there was neither space nor time for the 
hapless Iraqis to react !!  In a large country like China, the defense 
would have the option of trading space for time, just like the USSR did 
in the fall of 1941.  And China is, for the most part, not desert, where 
the superior coalition armor, attack aircraft, and night vision equipment 
held all the cards in Desert Storm.  China has plenty of 'light infantry 
country' where our M1A1's, Apaches, and A-10's wouldn't be real assets.  
Vietnam comes to mind.  So does Afghanistan, where the mudjahadeen found 
the Soviet tac air threat VERY attenuated by any sort of cover against 
observation from the air.  

I should also mention that in China, nationalism is alive and well, thank 
you.  The PLA would find recruitment after a Japanese (!!!!!) or 
Japanese/American move against the mainland about as easy as the US Army 
found it on December _8_, 1941 !!!  There are a number of folks in that 
country who are still not sure they should forgive the US its support of 
Chiang Kai-Shek.  And there are a _GREAT_ _MANY_ who would be more than 
happy to take the field against Japan, given a good enough reason.  

>>Of course, Japan can do certain things to postpone the day when Chinese 
>>armies are sent back to their Creator.  For example, weakening China 
>>politically would be one route; this can be accomplished by using 
>>Japanese (and American) financial and political leverage to force the 
>>secession of Manchuria as an independent nation whose official language 
>>would be Japanese or English.  Manchuria could then be renamed to 
>>somethng like "Shinkoku", and the people would be called "Shinkoku-jin".

Thank you for the suggestion, Dwight Tojo.  

Do you seriously think either the Japanese or American goverments would 
even CONSIDER paying the diplomatic and political costs of such a move, 
in view of the PLA's present status as a non-threat to any of her 
neighbors with a modern army and air force ?  Forget it, fella !  
Rational leaders take risks in proportion to 1) perceived threat (nil), 
2) probability of success (IMO, minimal to zip), and 3) political/economic 
cost (DAMNED high, especially for Japan, who has too many neighbors who 
haven't forgiven her pre-1945 excesses already).  

 [Dave's objections deleted]
>I have come to the conclusion that Dwight Joe is very ill.

He also clearly knows less about military or political affairs than one of 
my cats.  Jeez, how clueless can you get ????  

--
Charles Roten | Hughes-STX, Incorporated | 
  roten@cuba.gsfc.nasa.gov               | 'Use the Source, Luke!'
  7601 Ora-Glen Dr., Greenbelt, MD 20706 | 
  301-513-7805 (w),  301-317-0872 (h)    |            Obi-Wan Stallman
Newsgroups: soc.culture.asian.american