From: jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Blackjack
Date: 24 Dec 92 13:07:36 GMT
	<1992Dec24.010756.7464@wdl.loral.com>
Followup-To: rec.gambling
Organization: University of Utah CS Dept
In-reply-to: 's message of 24 Dec 92 01:07:56 GMT

In article <1992Dec24.010756.7464@wdl.loral.com> (Brad Snyder) writes:
>
>>  As the player, however, you can take a hit on or stick on
>> whatever you want, for example you can hit on an ace and a 6 whereas 
>> the dealer (who must stand on all 17s) would have to sick in that situation.  
>> are the people the casino makes money from.  For example if the player has
>> a 16 and the dealer has a 7, 8, 9, 10, or an Ace, the player should hit.  
>> More than half the players stick in this situation.
>> 
>> ajackson@ernie.princeton.edu
>
> Most house rules force the dealer to hit on a soft 17.  A soft 17 is where
> the dealer's hand adds to 17 using an ace as 11.
>
> Hitting on a 16 is not always a good move with a 7 8 9 or 10 showing. 
> Mostly you will bust and then you have no chance of winning.

Correct basic strategy is to hit 16 vs. 7,8,9,10 or A.  Unless you are
counting cards or you have "inside" information, it is best to hit.  Most
of the exceptions for card counters occur against 10 or 9 or A.  It is a
pretty rare situation that requires standing on 16 vs. dealer's 7.

Look at the numbers below.  If you stand with 16 vs. 7, you will lose
on average about a half a bet.  Hitting reduces your loss by about 12%
of a bet.  Either way you play it, you lose most of the time, but hitting
will lose less money.  You win *more* often by hitting, and you will
sometimes push if you hit.  If you stand, you lose more often and never
push.

Player hard 16 (t6)  vs. Dealer hard 7 (7)
      play    value      -3    -2    -1    -.5    0    +1   +1.5   +2    +3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       hit: -0.376193               0.658       0.060 0.282                   
     stand: -0.483324               0.742             0.258                   
    double: -0.752387         0.658             0.060             0.282       

The numbers for 16 vs. dealer 10 are closer together, as shown below,
but the numbers still favor hitting over standing.  You'd really prefer
to surrender in this case, but surrender is much less common than the
"dealer hits soft 17".  In this situation, you win less often *and* you
lose less often by hitting, but you push often enough to make hitting
the best player overall.

Player hard 16 (t6)  vs. Dealer hard 10 (t)
      play    value      -3    -2    -1    -.5    0    +1   +1.5   +2    +3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       hit: -0.506929               0.722       0.063 0.215                   
     stand: -0.542952               0.771             0.229                   
    double: -1.013859         0.722             0.063             0.215       

> Asumming that the dealer is always hiding a face card is stupid.

Assuming the dealer is always hiding a face card is a pretty good guide
for making correct basic strategy decisions.  Besides, if the dealer is
showing a ten and you stand on 16, you will lose if the dealer is hiding
7, 8, 9, 10, or ace.  Correct basic strategy plays take this into account.
Basic strategy does not simply assume that the dealer is hiding a face
card.

> I would wager that this person does not consistently win at blackjack.  

I'd say this person probably does as well or better than you :-)
--
Steve Jacobs  ({bellcore,hplabs,uunet}!utah-cs!jacobs, jacobs@cs.utah.edu)
"Don't worry, I just have these harmless pocket rockets...."