From: whs70@dancer.cc.bellcore.com (sohl,william h)
Subject: Re: DCC -- JUST SAY NO!  (was: The end of cassettes,
Organization: Bellcore, Livingston, NJ
Date: Thu, 19 Nov 92 14:38:29 GMT

In article <184332@pyramid.pyramid.com> lstowell@pyrnova.pyramid.com (Lon Stowell) writes:
>In article <1992Nov18.041231.12460@porthos.cc.bellcore.com> whs70@dancer.cc.bellcore.com (sohl,william h) writes:
>>
>>If the costs of blank tape are too high, any medium will not make
>>a significant dent in the analog cassette market.  If DCC and MD tapes
>>are more expensive than DAT, then DAT will likely survive and perhaps
>>become the digital tape standard over the other two.
>>
>   I'd beg to differ with that reasoning.  The ability to record at
>   home has very little effect on the market.  The cassette didn't
>   begin to grow a substantial mainstream market until pre-recorded
>   material became available--as an alternative to LP's.  

Actually, in my opinion, the analog cassette market grew because
it was the first truly viable medium that brought your own ability
to play music in automobiles.  While 8 track did that also, there was
really no ability to make your own tapes with 8-track.  Likewise,
the costs of cassettes were so much cheaper than 8-track, and size, 
we'll there was just no competition.

>   MOST home cassette decks could be play-only and not affect the
>   market a bit.   Ditto for VCR's.  Strange that the buying public
>   doesn't buy play-only models, as that is how most are operated.
>   [although more VCR's are used to record than cassettes...still
>   the MAJOR useage for both is playback of pre-recorded material..]

I don't think so.  Anyone I know with a car cassette player usually
makes some of their own tapes.  They do so to avoid carrying 
expensive tapes in the car.  With the CD, many of us only buy a
CD and then we make our own cassettes for automobile use, etc.

I see almost NO "play only" equipment in the analog cassette arena and
I have little doubt that a "play only" DCC or MD deck will not have
a big sales market.  Another reason there isn't likely to be much
"play only" DCC or MD equipment is because the incremental cost
difference to produce a "play only" unit vs. a "play and record"
unit isn't probably that much.  If a consumer can spend only a few
dollars more over the cost of a play only deck, most will opt for the 
play and record unit.  That's certainly the case with any analog cassette
decks as well as VCR's.

>   It is really only the "lunatic" or enthusiast fringe of audio
>   that does any appreciable home audio taping--self serving
>   statements from the record companies to the contrary.

Actual, I don't believe that either, but what I do believe is that
the claims of $$$$ in lost revenue are totally inflated and if the
recording industry could somehow eliminate ALL home taping, their
market would not expand to replace their perceived lost revenue.  Why,
because there is just so much money available and much of the claimed 
lost revenue would not mean more recorded tape/CD sales if people 
lost the ability to make their own copies.

Standard Disclaimer- Any opinions, etc. are mine and NOT my employer's.
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