From: westphal@sundog.arc.nasa.gov (Doug Westphal)
Newsgroups: rec.boats
Subject: Andrew: data and forecasts
Date: 25 Aug 92 19:05:04 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: NASA Ames Atmospheric Science Group
Originator: westphal@sundog.arc.nasa.gov


Hi,
Surf's up.

Enclosed are two bulletins (separated by NNNN) from the National Weather
Service.  I tried to post this earlier but it never showed up on usenet,
or at least I didn't see it. Hope this isn't a duplicate. I don't
plan to routinely post these; I just thought there might be some
interest in this sort of information.


ZCZC DD+ 25681
WTNT24 KMIA 251502
HURRICANE ANDREW MARINE ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1500Z TUE AUG 25 1992

AT 10 AM CDT HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE EXTENDED WESTWARD THROUGH THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA OF TEXAS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD THROUGH THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA
OF TEXAS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD TO FREEPORT TEXAS.
THE HURRICANE WATCH NOW EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA
TO FREEPORT TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA EASTWARD TO MOBILE
ALABAMA...INCLUDING ALL OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  89.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT
64 KT....... 60NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT....... 90NE  50SE  50SW
 50NW
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  89.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  88.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.7N  91.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.7N  92.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.6N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N  89.2W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.1N  93.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

MAYFIELD
ADVISORY NUMBER  38 HURRICANE ANDREW
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 MILES OF
LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT FRI AUG 28 1992

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
29.7N  92.4W      38  X  X  X 38
30.6N  93.0W      23  1  1  1 26   FREEPORT TX        8  5  2  2 17
31.1N  93.4W      15  4  2  1 22   PORT O CONNOR TX   2  4  4  3 13
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  2  4  6   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  2  3  4  9
PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  2  4  7   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  1  4  5
PENSACOLA FL       1  3  3  4 11   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1  4  5
MOBILE AL          5  4  3  2 14   GULF 29N 87W       1  1  3  4  9
GULFPORT MS       13  3  1  1 18   GULF 28N 89W      99  X  X  X 99
BURAS LA          50  X  X  X 50   GULF 28N 91W      63  X  X  X 63
NEW ORLEANS LA    35  X  X  1 36   GULF 28N 93W      19  1  X  1 21
NEW IBERIA LA     37  1  X  X 38   GULF 28N 95W       5  4  3  2 14
PORT ARTHUR TX    20  2  1  1 24   GULF 27N 96W       X  2  3  4  9
GALVESTON TX      13  4  1  2 20   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  3  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM WED TO  7PM WED
C FROM  7PM WED TO  7AM THU
D FROM  7AM THU TO  7AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT


NNNN


ZCZC DD+ 2498
WTNT34 KMIA 251800
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 1992

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
WESTWARD THROUGH THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA OF TEXAS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA TO FREEPORT TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA EASTWARD
TO MOBILE ALABAMA...INCLUDING ALL OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
LOUISIANA COAST.  ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...
INCLUDING EVACUATIONS ORDERED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS AND 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  STEERING
CURRENTS MAY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANDREW MAY DECREASE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...AND LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL
PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 943 MB...27.85 INCHES...WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.

STORM SURGES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
<
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.  AS THE
FORWARD MOTION SLOWS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE RAIN AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO APPALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST..AND RESIDENTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD SEE
LOCAL NWS COASTAL FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN THEIR AREA.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 89.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

MAYFIELD


NNNN
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