From: westphal@ucsu.Colorado.EDU (WESTPHAL KATHERINE ANN)
Subject: The solution no one has considered
Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder
Date: Sun, 16 Aug 1992 22:47:34 GMT

The discussion on the problem in ex-Yugoslavia has been largely
polemic and it is clear that there are no easy solutions to the
situations.  Participants on both sides largely seem to hate one
another and seem very willing to resort to arms, as do
non-participants like Americans.  In the midst of such a quagmire, I
would like to propose a solution that may minimize the violence, but
is by no means an ideal solution or devoid of problems-- separate the
two sides; have Croats, Serbs, and Muslims negotiate boundaries and
then have the UN assist minority groups (not force or coerce) in
moving to the territory populated by their ethnic group, and have
peace-keeping forces protect the people while this is occurring.

I realize that this is a horrible solution, but, in effect, it is what
is occurring now, with much violence and loss of life.  The Serbians,
Croatians, and Muslims can no longer get along.  Not only do they have
a long history of conflict, the recent violence has undoubtedly
aroused great fear of each other that will perpetuate the violence.
(Fear, in my opinion is the strongest motivator of violence.)  Will
the Serbs trust any Croats or Muslims in their midst, after being
shown purported pictures of violence against them, and especially with
the knowledge of the violence done to the Serbs during WWII by the
Croats?--I doubt it.  Will that fear and mistrust lead to violence?--I
think the probability is rather high.  Only with the illusion of
security provided by a national state will each group feel secure
enough to refrain from violence.  Perhaps, then in the distant future
they will be able to get along, but not now, not after what has
already happened.

Perhaps (BIG perhaps) this could have been prevented if all sides had
come to the negotiating table before the fighting started.  Now that
it has, though, I do not believe even another Ghandi could stop it.
Remember--Ghandi couldn't stop the fighting between the Muslims and
Hindu's and could not keep India whole.  The same sort of thing is
happening, and will likely continue to occur, in ex-Yugoslavia.
Therefore, I think the only realistic policy is to control the
violence and assist people in relocating, if they choose (My guess is
that the threat of local violence, ie. pogroms, will force the choice
in many, though hopefully not all, instances).

Another major problem in this troublesome policy is the undesirable
precedent it would set.  It would be extremely undesirable to have
other groups use this to justify more mass deportations.  It is not a
policy which should be carried out except in the most extreme
circumstances.  Perhaps, though, the threat of violence (which will
certainly not be eliminated) and dislocation will prompt other leaders
to take the initiative in preventing the proliferation of mistrust.
The rights of minorities (especially personal security) must be upheld
not just as an abstract democratic ideal, but as a necessary step in
ensuring the peaceful coexistence of populations.  Laws that protect
the rights of minorities and programs that aggressively promote
dialogue between different people are both required to prevent the
recurrence elsewhere of the situation in ex-Yugoslavia.  But for
ex-Yugoslavia itself, it is too late for anything but crisis
management.

One final note: This is not something that can be imposed, only
something that can be placed on the negotiating table.  I welcome
comments and other solutions, as I am anything but happy about this
one; but it is the only solution I can see at this point.



-- 
Katherine A. Westphal              |   "And you know it's time to go
westphal@ucsu.colorado.edu         | through the sleet and driving snow
University of Colorado at Boulder  | across the fields of mourning to a
Department of Political Science    | light that's in the distance"--U2