From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Debunking another myth...
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 06:07:02 GMT

In article <1992Jul28.183101.116@uwm.edu> paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger) writes:
>  Overall,
>  it's a solid team that has a penchant for winning tight games, a very big
>  plus in anyone's book.

I thought this looked strange, so I did the homework...  While I was
at it, I computed various things for the entire league.  The
(annotated) stats follow below:

rs = actual runs scored through 7/26/92.
RC = the simplest form of the RC formula, OBP * TB.
ra = actual runs allowed through 7/26/92.
wp = actual winning percentage through 7/26/92.
PYTH = expected winning percentage given actual runs scored and allowed.
MAN = "manufactured wins", an estimate of the wins gained from the
      difference between actual runs scored and the RC estimate.
EFF = "pitcher's efficiency", the number of wins over the pythagorean
      estimate.

Some people would call these last two columns "luck".  I won't get
into that right now, except...  If two teams are currently tied in the
standings and one has a high MAN+EFF rating while the other has a low
(or negative) MAN+EFF rating, your best bet is on the team with the
negative MAN+EFF rating.

Team     rs    RC    ra    wp  PYTH  MAN   EFF
kc      378   383   398 0.439 0.474 -0.5  -3.5
bal     464   481   400 0.551 0.574 -1.7  -2.3
---greater than two runs---
sea     419   435   520 0.390 0.394 -1.6  -0.4
min     493   480   372 0.612 0.637  1.3  -2.5
chw     407   399   402 0.485 0.506  0.8  -2.2
cle     386   401   463 0.424 0.410 -1.5   1.4
nyy     433   435   453 0.480 0.477 -0.2   0.2
det     474   462   492 0.470 0.481  1.2  -1.1
bos     349   351   375 0.469 0.464 -0.2   0.5
cal     368   350   412 0.439 0.444  1.8  -0.5
---greater than two runs---
tor     458   457   403 0.592 0.564  0.1   2.8
mil     446   411   399 0.546 0.555  3.5  -0.9
oak     451   442   415 0.582 0.541  0.9   4.0
tex     456   452   478 0.525 0.476  0.4   4.8

Note that the Royals and Orioles neither use their OBP/SLG well nor
use their runs efficiently.  I'd consider firing both of their
managers.

The high EFF of the Rangers might be explained by the extreme duality
in the bullpen.  Russell will save the close games, while Mathews,
Bannister, and the others will blow the blowouts sky high!

The Athletic's bullpen, on the other hand, is uniformly excellent.
I'd credit some of their high EFF to luck, and some to LaRussa.

Milwaukee is *not* good at winning the close games.  I don't care
about their record in one-run games.  They are winning by larger
margins than they are losing by.  Which is the opposite of what was
claimed.  They *do*, however, seem to be good at pulling runs out of
thin air.  Of course, they are also the only AL team with a
significant baserunning game (unless you think that the Red Sox and
Detroit are significantly futile on the basepaths).  It seems that the
Brewers baserunning/manufacturing *might* be worth as much as 50 runs!
Which seems like a lot, until you realize that sportswriters credit
Vince Coleman's basestealing as if he creates almost that much offense
on his own!  (All-star level is about 30 runs above average.
Coleman's bat is worth something like 15 runs *below* average.)

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, do seem to be winning the close
games.  I don't have enough confidence in Gaston to predict that this
will continue.

Baltimore has the raw tools.  They are getting the hits and preventing
the runs.  They just aren't converting that into runs and wins.  Will
they figure it out before they stop hitting?  If so, they could easily
take the division.

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
Vaughn, Irvine, Valentin...  Where is Wedge?	tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball