From: hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU (Brad Hernlem)
Subject: Re: Soviet Nuclear Weapons Stolen? / The Count
Reply-To: hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU (Brad Hernlem)
Organization: North Carolina State University
Date: Sun, 23 Aug 1992 16:04:15 GMT

Chris writes:
********
The April 6 issue of U.S. News and World Report has a "brief" that says
so far 6 warheads are missing in the restructuring from Soviet Union to
CIS.  Some were definately stolen -- their containers were found laying
empty after the warheads were removed.  Some were tactical level, I don't
know if any were strategic.

As to the issue that some may have been transferred to Iran, I doubt whether
any of the new Islamic Republics would be willing to hand over nukes to
a potential adversary like Iran.  These governments are fairly Western in
outlook, having already opened diplomatic relations with Israel. They 
                                                                 ^^^^
probably see Iran correctly as a powerful radical government, bent on
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
expanding its influence by destabilizing its neighbors.  Similarly,
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
though they have cooperated in the past, could you see Syria giving nukes
to Iran?  The potential for a serious falling out in the future precludes
such options -- the Arabs understand each other better than the European
arms moguls understand them.

The above (hopeful) scenerios don't cover rogue Generals, etc.  I think that
Alec is right -- anything that Iran gets is likely to be inoperable, but can
serve as a model for reverse engineering.  The current Israeli assessment is
10 years to Iranian nuclear capability.

-- Chris Metcalfe
********


I don't don't think you follow Iranian actions or Iran's foreign policy
very closely. Iran does not benefit from destabilizing its neighbors. It
has already suffered what Dr. Velayeti (Iran's foreign minister) claims
was $950 billion in damages from the war with Iraq. President Rafsanjani
is struggling to restructure the economy and war in the region can do
nothing but hamper this. 

Consider these facts:

1) Iran played a very prominent role in mediating between the Armenians
and Azeris and sponsored a high level meeting in Tehran which led to a
cease-fire.

2) Iran has consistently stated that international boundaries should
remain fixed. Iran supported all UN resolutions against Iraq concerning
its agression on Kuwait.

3a) Iran has long standing trade interests with its northern neighbors
and can supply them with an access to the sea that does not require
their reliance on Russia, a historical agressor.

3b) Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan have resurrected an old economic
cooperation agreement and have invited membership of the regional former
Soviet republics.

4) Rafsanjani has made sweeping changes in the economy to eliminate or
reduce subsidies in an effort to make the Iranian Rial fully
convertible. These economic changes have been very bold because they
have led to great economic hardship to many people (consider the many
protests and riots which have taken place in the last year) but seem to
be directed toward the Western powers which have imposed a considerable
trade and credit embargo on Iran (the barriers to trade between the US
and Iran are primarily based in US policy and not Iranian policy; Iran
has already made the US one of its largest trading partners with respect
to imports). 

5) Rafsanjani has eliminated barriers to foreign ownership of businesses
in Iran; the late Shah never allowed majority ownership of Iranian
companies by foreign investors, now a foreign investor can own 100%.

6) Whereas Iran had considerable arms contracts with the former Soviet
Union, these contracts were primarily barter based (i.e. Iran provided
Azerbaijan with natural gas and Russia provided arms). With the breakup
of the Soviet Union, of course, these contracts were meaningless. It is
believed that very little arms trade has gone on since last December.

7) Both the US government and the IAEC have stated that there is no
evidence that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Indeed, Iran
has pushed for a treaty creating a nuclear free zone in the Middle East.

For an excellent analysis of Iranian foreign policy see the Summer 1992
issue of Middle East Journal which contains an article by R.K. Ramazani
entitled "Iran's foreign policy: Both North and South".

Brad Hernlem (hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.mideast