From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt Bose "of Biscayzee")
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: AL West Race
Date: 19 Aug 92 19:11:35 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

In article <1992Aug19.162253.23299@CSD-NewsHost.Stanford.EDU> gidi@Hilbert.Stanford.EDU (Gidi Avrahami) writes:
>In the following table are listed the records that each contending team will
>have to have over the remainder of the season in order to win a specified
>number of games.
>
>For example, in order to post a 92-70 record, the A's will need to go only
>20-23 the rest of the way, but the Twins will need a 25-18 pace and the
>WhiSox, a robust 30-15.
>
>   team     w-l     88 games        90 games        92 games        94 games    
Oakland    72-47   16-27 (0.372)   18-25 (0.419)   20-23 (0.465)   22-21 (0.512)
Minnesota  67-52   21-22 (0.488)   23-20 (0.535)   25-18 (0.581)   27-16 (0.628)
Chicago    62-55   26-19 (0.578)   28-17 (0.622)   30-15 (0.667)   32-13 (0.711)
Texas      59-63   29-11 (0.725)   31-9  (0.775)   33-7  (0.825)   35-5  (0.875)
>
>   team     w-l     95 games        98 games       100 games    
Oakland    72-47   23-20 (0.535)   26-17 (0.605)   28-15 (0.651)
Minnesota  67-52   28-15 (0.651)   31-12 (0.721)   33-10 (0.767)
Chicago    62-55   33-12 (0.733)   36-9  (0.800)   38-7  (0.844)
Texas      59-63   36-4  (0.900)   39-1  (0.975)
>
>(Based on the standings after the games of Aug. 18, according to UPI)
>

I was digging around and found an old formula to predict future winning
percentage based on past performances.  Here's how the AL West race shaped up.

Team       Past     Future   Total

Oakland    72-47    23-20    95-67
Minnesota  67-52    23-20    90-72
Chicago    62-55    23-22    85-77
Texas      59-63    20-20    79-83

From the chart above, for example, the A's and Twins are expected to play
slightly above .500 ball the rest of the way.  Granted, that figure seems low,
and I think that I'll wait for the on-line standings and fiddle with the
formulae a bit until I get the whole thing to even out, but what it says in
short is that Oakland will probably win about 95 games, and Minnesota and
Chicago are going to have to turn up the heat to make a race of it.  The Twins
don't need to panic, though; a couple hot pitchers and a return to form of the
hitting and they should pull back to the A's.  The comments about how the Twins
had to play .750 or .800 ball to win are misleading; they just need to make 
sure they win all their series.  The White Sox, on the other hand, are in that
.750 win area.  They really need to set the world on fire, and the odds are 
long enough that they shouldn't jeopardize the future for the present.  The
Rangers should just use the time to play their best prospects and draft 
protectees.  Get them used to the bigs and for next year.

-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) - kbos@carina.unm.edu - I'm not the AntiChrist
I AM the AntiWoofer. - Junior Stathead{tm} - I'm a shutmouthed, selfless idiot!!
Latest Attempted Compiler of the R.S.BB FAQ - Now Accepting Submissions...(hint)
Have you hugged a Dan Gladden fan today? - Dave Rossing : .531/54/214 at Denver!
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball