From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- NL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 17:26:30 GMT

                  NL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
               (through games of Sunday, September 27,
                missing last Friday's Houston/LA game)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maddux         CHI   18.6   7.4  0.716   19 11   2.36   50.4   5.33
Tewksbury      STL   15.7   7.1  0.689   15  5   2.49   37.4   4.03
Schilling      PHI   13.4   6.5  0.673   12  8   2.61   30.0   3.33
Morgan         CHI   15.5   9.3  0.625   15  8   3.08   27.8   2.91
Rijo           CIN   13.7   7.6  0.641   15  9   2.78   28.7   2.65
Martinez,D     MON   14.7   8.9  0.622   16 11   2.98   25.4   2.70
Drabek         PIT   15.8  10.2  0.608   15 10   2.90   28.4   2.61
Swindell       CIN   13.5   8.1  0.625   12  6   2.98   24.6   2.60
Swift          SFG   10.4   5.1  0.671    9  3   2.36   23.9   2.52
Smoltz         ATL   16.0  11.2  0.587   15 12   3.34   21.6   2.27
Fernandez      NYM   12.9   8.7  0.599   13 11   2.84   21.4   1.96
Hill           MON   13.4   9.5  0.585   16  9   3.19   18.7   1.91
Glavine        ATL   13.8   9.9  0.581   20  7   3.38   18.0   1.97
Smith,P        ATL    5.1   2.0  0.717    6  0   2.17   15.0   1.50
Benes          SDP   13.6  10.9  0.555   13 13   3.45   11.0   1.26
Wakefield      PIT    5.4   3.0  0.646    6  1   2.59   11.8   1.22
Avery          ATL   13.6  11.2  0.549   11 11   3.60   14.1   1.10
Rivera         PHI    5.9   3.6  0.623    7  3   3.08    9.0   1.13
Portugal       HOU    6.1   3.9  0.611    5  3   2.80   10.8   1.01
Leibrandt      ATL   11.8   9.7  0.550   13  7   3.97    4.1   1.15



Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Bowen          HOU    0.3   5.2  0.055    0  6  15.09  -29.6  -2.37
Wilson,T       SFG    7.0  11.2  0.386    8 14   4.79  -17.9  -1.99
Martinez,R     LAD    7.2  11.2  0.391    8 11   4.90  -20.4  -1.96
Young,A        NYM    2.8   6.3  0.307    1  7   5.79  -17.8  -1.69
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8  0.358    1 13   4.95  -10.5  -1.65
Henry,B        HOU    8.4  11.6  0.419    6  9   4.40  -11.6  -1.47
Hammond        CIN    6.9  10.1  0.405    7 10   4.61   -8.1  -1.44
Ojeda          LAD    8.2  11.4  0.418    6  9   4.33  -11.4  -1.58
Boskie         CHI    4.1   7.1  0.365    3 10   5.63  -12.2  -1.46
Hershiser      LAD    9.9  12.9  0.435   10 14   4.27  -12.5  -1.52



Luckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Glavine        ATL   13.7   9.9    20  7    9.3
Burkett        SFG    9.5  12.4    13  9    6.9
Seminara       SDP    4.8   6.1     9  4    6.4
Lefferts       SDP    8.4  10.4    13  9    6.0
Tomlin         PIT   11.5  10.6    14  8    5.0
Hurst,B        SDP   12.3  12.2    14  9    4.8
Cone           NYM   11.2  10.0    13  7    4.8
Gardner        MON    8.5  11.0    11  9    4.4
Leibrandt      ATL   11.6   9.7    13  7    4.1
Jones,J        HOU    7.1   8.7     8  6    3.6



Unluckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8     1 13   -8.5
Candiotti      LAD   11.3  10.3    10 15   -6.0
Gross          LAD   10.1  10.4     7 13   -5.6
Clark,M        STL    5.4   7.9     3 10   -4.5
Maddux         CHI   18.6   7.4    19 11   -3.3
Boskie         CHI    3.2   7.1     3 10   -3.1
Kile           HOU    5.6   8.6     4 10   -3.0
Schilling      PHI   13.4   6.5    12  8   -2.9
Deleon         S/P    3.9   7.0     2  8   -2.9
Whitehurst     NYM    2.3   3.4     1  5   -2.9



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL     66.2   48.3   0.578   64.5   69  41   3.42   3.22   8.80
CHI     60.3   48.7   0.553   57.9   56  53   3.67   3.40   5.48
MON     58.3   50.3   0.537   56.0   64  53   3.61   3.56   4.11
PIT     59.3   51.9   0.533   56.5   57  44   3.58   3.62   3.59
CIN     56.3   52.3   0.519   54.4   61  50   3.83   3.70   1.77
STL     56.0   55.0   0.505   54.6   47  51   3.99   3.92   0.27
NYM     53.2   57.3   0.482   51.2   46  57   3.89   4.11  -2.28
SDP     51.8   59.0   0.467   49.8   56  55   4.18   4.25  -3.66
LAD     52.0   60.0   0.464   50.8   46  67   3.99   4.20  -4.23
PHI     50.1   61.5   0.449   48.0   44  61   4.46   4.32  -5.38
SFG     48.2   59.5   0.447   45.6   45  61   4.33   4.51  -5.54
HOU     45.3   63.4   0.417   43.7   40  59   4.67   4.86  -8.98
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NL     657.0  667.1   0.496  633.1  631 652   3.96   3.96  -6.05


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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