From: why@kpc.com (Will Hyde)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Net.holdem.tournament HAND 5 ... DEALER'S ANALYSIS...
Summary: First big pot in the Championship game.
Date: 6 Apr 92 18:32:57 GMT
Article-I.D.: kpc.1992Apr6.183257.1538
Organization: Kubota Pacific Computer Inc, Santa Clara, CA


Lengthy.  Please note:  If this is a repost, please forgive me ... I
posted this puppy (thought I did) early Sat.  But evidently, it did
not show up anywhere except locally.  

Last time I use Pnews....

_________________________


DEALER'S ANALYSIS (AUTHORIZED) OF THE FIRST BIG HAND in the
"World.net.rec.gambling.poker.tournament" ...



X.5***************Playing $10.00 MINIMUM (NO-LIMIT)*****************
********************************************************************
#1: jacobs@cs.utah.edu (steve jacobs)                          10.00 
#2: bharat@cs.uiuc.edu (bharat rao)                           *FIRST
#3: butler@tartan.com (ken butler)                     
#4: lex@always.com (lex mierop)                    
#5: hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov (michael hall)         
#6: ds2931r@acad.drake.edu (dave slaven)                    
#7: reeves@cs.ucla.edu (john reeves)                           
#8: ege@cbnmva.att.com (ernie englehart)                        5.00
#9: stevem@tivoli.com (steven marcie)                           5.00 
________________________________
Player #2 (680.00)               BET:  40.00                   60.00 
________________________________

Ummm, looks like our boy, Bharat, awoke with the nuts in his hand. Time
for a little surcharge, right off the git-go here.  "Let's play some
No-Limit," he says.  "I got the Royal Gozintas in my pocket," he says.
No dimes in this pot ... wanna play, gotta pay...!"  He says.

Ummm,

________________________________
Player #3 (560.00)               PASS (FOLD)                  
Player #4 (800.00)               PASS (FOLD)
Player #5 (840.00)               PASS (FOLD)
Player #6 (740.00)               PASS (FOLD)
Player #7 (570.00)               PASS (FOLD)
________________________________

Jesus, B., you got 'em layin' down like a bunch of little girls ...
Only they ain't givin' nuthin' up.  :)

But now we get to the Blinds.  Now we get to the guys who already
got a little investment in this here pot ... Ain't gonna push these
guys around so easy.  Ernie ain't intimidated by no $40.00 bet, and
he gets rates, anyway.  Only $35.00 to Ernie:

________________________________
Player #8 (595.00)(5.00)D        CALL  40.00 (35.00)           95.00
________________________________

Hey, there's almost a hunnert bucks out there now ... now we'll get
some action ... "Miracle Marcie" is next (he who finished hand number
three or four, way back when, with $2.00 remaining in his stack! The
Comeback Kid!  Marcie will play, sure as hell ... he's blessed...!

________________________________
Player #9 (570.00)(5.00)         PASS (FOLD)
________________________________

Oh well, sometimes you can call 'em right, and sometimes no.

But look who's got the big Blind ... look who's already got $10.00
in the pot.  Jacobs.  Yup, you couldn't drive Jacobs out with a
limo ... "What, run off and leave my ten dollars...?  You gotta be
kiddin...."

________________________________
Player #1 (520.00)(10.00)        CALL  40.00 (30.00)          125.00
________________________________

So, what've we got?  We've got three ... And what've they got...?
Well, of course I know, I'm Dealing (well, I'm running the program
that's Dealing) but I don't think I'll tell you yet ... see if you
can figure it out from the play that follows:

________________________________
THE FLOP:              4S QH 7C
________________________________


Ummm, nothing much; three different suits, and one possibility for
a small Straight (but *nobody* plays 5-6, do they?).  Doesn't look
much like an *action* Flop, does it?  Well, let's see, Jacobs will
be first now, after the Flop, and he's gonna:

________________________________
Player #1 (490.00)               BET:  30.00                  155.00 
________________________________


Playin' on the come, he is.  But showing no weakness.  Yeah, I'm
gonna tell you:  Jacobs *plays* 5-6!  Yup, he's got 4-5-6-7, but
the 5-6 are suited (Spades).  He's holdin' 4S-5S-6S and 7C.  And
considering that limp Flop, he might win it right here (gotta be
the reasoning ... but, computer math-weenie, remember ... he's
crunched the numbers, and sees 16-ways to make the Straight: 47
unknown cards, and 16 of them will make the Straight -- 8 on the
Turn, and 8 on the River ... right?).  So, he figures he has a
one-in-three chance ... and he's one of three players, so his
workstation says he's into an even-money proposition here, right?

Would be.  If this were a Limit game.  But if you compute it 
like that in a No-Limit game, you are in for some surprizes (you
*can't* compute your odds based upon the *next TWO cards* because
Axiom #2 is:  A LARGE BET CHANGES THE ODDS).  I know, I'm gonna
get some mail on that one ... but maybe you'll see what I mean
here, because this hand ain't over:

It's 30.00 to Bharat, he who awoke with pocket nuts; and, I
gotta admit, even lookin' over his shoulder into his hand, I
don't have the foggiest idea what he's gonna do (he's listening
to a voice the rest of us don't hear :).

And it tells him to:

________________________________
Player #2 (580.00)              RAISE  70.00 (100.00)         255.00
________________________________


A hunnert bucks!  "Let's play some No-Limit," he says (his private 
voice says).  "Women and children off the streets," he says.  "I 
come to play, and I play fast...."  Says he. "A hunnert bucks to you,
Ernie ... Jack it up," he says.

________________________________
Player #8 (595.00)               PASS (FOLD)                  
________________________________


Nope.  Ummm, it worked.  I can't tell you what Ernie laid down, 
because I didn't ask him if that was cool; but I can tell you this
much:  Bharat's ploy worked.  Ernie has the ONLY PAIR in this hand!

At this point, he's layin' down the best hand -- but, believe it,
if he had called that 100.00, it would have been a terrible call!
In fact, he may well have gotten busted here, as it turns out.

So now we're down to a pair of math-weenie computer wizards, and
it's on Jacobs to call the 70.00 Raise.  He's *still* got 4-5-6-7
and high hopes ... is he gonna call that Raise?

Are you kiddin'...?

________________________________
Player #1 (420.00)               CALL  70.00                  325.00
________________________________


Okay, now I already told you that Bharat doesn't have a pair, and
the chances are pretty slim that he's *also* playin' 5-6 ... so
what's he got...?  Time to tell you, I guess, so you can appreciate
the following plays.  Bharat is BLUFFING all the way.  He has AK,
but they're not suited, and the Flop was *no help* ...

Maybe he can catch lightning in a bottle here, and build a hand.
Ace *or* King would, at least, give him High Pair (since Queen is
the highest card showing).


________________________________
THE TURN:                    9S
________________________________


Nope.  No lightning in a bottle.  Bharat has no hand!  Jacobs, on
the other hand, now has 4-5-6-7 *and* four Spades (4-5-6-9).  So,
now he has 15 ways to make a hand (8 to make the Straight, and 7
more that will make the Flush).

Still, he's playing on the come.  He can't beat Bharat's AK, at 
this point.

Jacobs to bet:


________________________________
Player #1 (320.00)               BET: 100.00                  425.00
________________________________


A hunnert bucks!  Hey, what the f- ... that's why they call it 
gambling, ain't it...?  Anyway, he can't see how Bharat can have
much of a hand either (pair of Queens, Queens over, maybe, is the
tops ... outside chance of trips, but even trips is gonna have to
think about this a little ... and he still has a 33% chance of
making a trips killer....  *NOW* he's making a percentage bet:

A hundred to win 325.00 (pot of 425.00).  He's got *better than*
three-to-one on this bet, and the odds against making the hand
are shorter than that.  This is a *good* bet,

And considering that Bharat has no hand ... it's probably gonna
end the hand right here.  Unless Bharat's got balls, seein's how
he sure ain't got the nuts. :)

Let's see:

________________________________
Player #2 (380.00)              RAISE 100.00 (200.00)         625.00
________________________________


Go for it, Bharat...!  *Now* we're playin' No-Limit Hold'em....
If you think this bet is insane, think again.  What's happened now
is:  JACOBS HAS TO MAKE THE STRAIGHT OR THE FLUSH on the River.  
If he calls that Raise (and you know he will :) he has to know he's
dead meat if he misses (unless he lookin' into B.s hand).  No other
way to figure it....

But he's "pot stuck" now.  Now he's getting better than 6-to-1 on
this bet, and it's *still* a 2-to-1 against, proposition.  It's
too late to stop now....


________________________________
PLAYER #1 (220.00)               CALL 100.00                  725.00
________________________________


Well, we got a pot...!

And it's time for that one-card-that-means-EVERYTHING....


________________________________
THE RIVER:                   QS
________________________________


PRESTO...!  No shit!  Presto strikes again...! 

Sweet Jesus!  Ain't that lovely...!  Club Flush on the River!  Some
people can walk on water.  And he was drawing to a Straight, all 
along.  Talk about doin' it the hard way...  

Poor Bharat.  Made the play of the tournament, and got drawn out
on, on the f-ing River card!

Now, Flushed with a feeling of power, it's on Jacobs:


________________________________
Player #1          (*all-in*)    BET: 220.00                  945.00
________________________________


Ummm, a mistake.  Understandable, but a mistake.  It's not impossible
for him to lose the hand (the pair of Queens on the board makes a
Full-house possible, and Bharat *could* also be suited in Clubs) but
that's a possibility not even worth considering -- because if he
doesn't have the best hand he's dead, with no way out.  Betting or
not betting, if he *doesn't* have the best, he's busted.  But by
betting, if he *does* have the best hand, he's not going to get a
call....

Steve should have passed here, and let Bharat follow through with his
bluff ... he certainly would have -- he has the hand set up for that
play, and he knows it.  If Steve passes here, B. is gonna bet 220.00,
and you can take that to the bank (only way for Steve to get that
220.00 is to let B. make the play).

But, it's *fun* to bet 'em all, when you have the nuts!  It's hard
not to.... :)


________________________________
Player #2                        PASS
________________________________


....JACOBS!  FIRST TO BET THEM ALL ... FIRST TO HIT $900.00....

-- 
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