From: garvin+@cs.cmu.edu (Susan Garvin)
Subject: Estimates of the incidence of illegal abortions
Organization: School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 1993 02:42:05 GMT




I finally went to the library.  Some of the books I wanted weren't
available, but it was easy to find estimates of the number of illegal
abortions in the U.S. and Great Britain prior to legalization.
One book cited several sources - _Abortion Practice in Britain
and the United States_ by Colin Francome.  (ISBN# 0-04-179003-0)
The quotes below are from this book, but the original sources
are also provided.

First, to debunk the myth that NARAL concocted their estimates
of deaths out of whole cloth -

"A Dr. Hunter of Louisville reported calculations, based on
correspondence with nearly 100 doctors, that in the United States
there were over 100,000 abortions and 6,000 deaths from abortion
each year (_Medical Age_, March 1906).  [p.39]

Now, for some estimates of incidence...

Great Britain:

"It is likely that it was her [Ethel Elderton] research led
to the _Malthusian_'s estimate that 100,000 working women took
abortifacient pills in each year (May 1914)."  [p. 21]

"Similar evidence was provided by witnesses to the Birth Rate
Commission, although one witness suggested that the richer groups
were using birth control and that about one in four women
procured abortion (Birth Rate Commission, 1917, pp 279-90). [p.21]

United States:

"Hale (1860) published an estimate that one in five pregnancies 
ended in abortion and that nine out of ten married women had
attempted one."  [p. 31]

"The high abortion rate at mid-century led to the regular
physicians setting up an anti-abortion campaign under Storer's
leadership.  Storer believed that abortion was dangerous and
in his book _Why not?  A Book for Every Woman_ (1866), issued
under the order of the American Medical Association, he commented:
'I propose to show that induced abortions...are so dangerous
to the woman's health, her own physical and domestic best 
interests, that the induction permitted, or solicitation by
one cognisant of their true character, should almost be
looked upon as proof of actual insanity' (p. 15).  He also
quoted a series of abortion cases reported by Tardieu where of 
thirty-four abortions carried out by non-physicians there
were twenty-two deaths, whereas in a further fifteen cases by
physicians there was not one fatality.  So overall nearly half 
the abortions ended in death.  This series of Tardieu was
continually referred to in the nineteenth and early
twentieth centuries to show the dangers of abortion.  In
fact, as late as 1932 Parry felt the need to state that 
Tardieu had an unusual series.  This kind of propaganda
would, however, have little effect on a population who
would have intimate knowledge of friends and acquaintances
who had successfully procured abortions."  [pp. 33-34]
[I found it interesting that the first case of exaggeration
of the number of deaths that I found was from a leader
in the anti-abortion movement.]

"'A million abortions at a very conservative estimate
are performed annually in the United States (_Critic
and Guide_, 1911, p. 209).'"  [p.41]
[The author here is William Robinson]

"An unsigned article in _Critic and Guide_ for 1920 (p.61)
reported a survey of doctors known to have performed abortions.  
From this it was estimated that there were 550.000 abortions
a year in the United States taking into account different
patterns in the rural districts."  [pp. 41-42]

"The Actual number of abortions in the United States in the
1930'2 is still a matter of some debate.  In 1929 Robinson
raised his estimate from 2 to 3 million (_Critic and Guide_,
p. 53).  Margaret Sanger suggested the lower figure but
commented:
   'It is the opinion of competent medical observers during
   the last twenty five years that there are more criminal
   abortions in the United States than any other country in
   the world.  The total of abortions, which does not include
   the number of those brought about by drugs or instruments 
   used by the pregnant woman herself, has been estimated to
   top two millions per year.  (_New Generation, April 1935)'"
[p. 44]

"In 1942 Alan Guttmacher called on the medical profession to
relax its barriers on abortion and quoted the New York
prosecutor that there were 100,000-250,000 criminal
abortions each year in the city (_New York Times_, 31
January 1942)."  [p. 45]


"Planned Parenthood organised a conference on abortion in 1957.
From the evidence presented at this conference, Calderone
suggested: 'A plausible estimate of the frequency of
induced abortion in the United States could be as low as 
200,000 and as high as 1,200,000 a year' (1958, p. 180).
In the event, most observers were inclined towards the
higher of these two figures and the figure of 1 million
abortions a year was the one most often quoted." [p. 45]

Susan