From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: NL ROY: More Fuel for Debate
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 92 05:19:45 GMT

In article <6551@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
>Thus spake claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu):
>
>But that's not true, either.  You're saying that one Barry Bonds would
>contribute just as many runs per out in an average lineup as he would when
>surrounded by other Barry Bondses, and that's just plain false.

But isn't that also a problem with MLV?  That is not a problem that is unique
to RC/27.  Brett Butler will contribute different number of runs when
surrounded by a lineup of Pete O'Brienses than when surrounded by Jeff Husons.
But you still have to come up with just one number for Butler.
>
>Normalizing by outs consumed does *not* correct for the interaction effect
>in RC, by which a player with balanced OBP and SLG gets credit for batting
>with lots of runners on base *and* for converting them efficiently, *and*
>for being driven in at a very high rate.  In a real lineup, there wouldn't
>be that many runners on base to convert, and the following batters wouldn't
>convert the player in question as frequently, even if the player in question
>put up exactly the same numbers.  RC overestimates the *marginal* value of
>individual OBP and SLG, due to this self-compounding effect.

I disagree to a small extent.  Why should we penalize Eddie Yost-type
players just because GMs fail to see their value offensively?  A player who
has a high OBP and high SLG should not be penalized by the fact that teams
stock their roster with low-OBP/high-SLG players.
>
>>2.	MLV does not account for the effects of the running game or for a
>>	player who grounds into double-plays a lot.
>
>DPs, no.  Stolen bases can be added in as 0.3*(SB-2*CS) added to TMR.

But isn't there a point of diminishing returns for stolen bases?
>
>>3.	Since you use league averages to derive MLV's, it gives no indication
>>	of how much value a below average player might have.
>
>I disagree.  It tells you how many fewer runs you will score with this guy
>than you would with a league average guy.  What other measure of value did
>you have in mind?

What I mean is...

Eric Karros has some value this year, despite being below average.  How
much is that value?

By using MLV, the *more* Karros plays, the more he gets punished by getting
more and more negative MLV.

>Oh, come on Nelson.  Instead of being petulant, how about telling where you
>think it fails to account for it?  Is it the advancement value of walks that
>you're worried about?  The whole point of MLV is to do the normalization that
>lets you use the team RC formula to compare two individual players.  The whole
>motivation for doing that was that RC/27 comparisons don't, and can't.

My point is, you raised an extreme example (Thomas batting in an amateur
league) to try to prove a point.  I am merely asking you to complete the proof.
I mean, I would have problem trying to construct the MLV for Thomas in that
case.  And I think that is one weakness of MLV.

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)