From: liqiang@kramden.nyu.edu (Li)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.taiwan
Subject: Re: China(was More than 50% support TI)
Date: 4 Jan 93 22:46:44 GMT
Organization: New York University

nlu@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:

>In article <C0C2n9.Lq@ulowell.ulowell.edu> cshi@cs.ulowell.edu (Chunde Shi) writes:

>>One of my major was economic geography. Please trust me on those, they are
>>facts and  can be easily verified. Unfortunately I do not have figure handy.
>>If you realy have doubt and curious enough, any extensive geography book or
>>economic statistics book will help.


A good reference would be "The Statistical Yearbook of China". It is published
yearly by China's National Statistical Bureau and should be retained in the
reference section of every business school's library. This book contains
official data of all facets of the mainland's economy and is oft-quoted
by economists. I assume one can find other countries' yearbooks for comparisons.

As far as my memory can serve me, the total yearly grain output of the mainland
is a little over 810 billion jin (1 lb = .918 jin) - check the most recent
yearbook for more digits. This figure has been claimed by the mainland
gvmnt for yrs to be No. 1 in the world and I have not heard of any disputes 
on that - what the hell, we have a population 5 times as big as that of the
US.

The greatest achievement of the mainland's economy has been feeding
22% of world's population with only 7% of world's cultivable lands. Thus
it is not a surprise that China's grain output per unit land is way higher
than most countries (esp the US and Canada where mechanization is
prevalent and does not ensure high yield per unit land - since they
have a surplus amount of land). This is achieved by intensive farming
and double(or even triple)-harvesting but I disagree with Chunde Shi that
double-harvesting demonstrates the fertility of China's land. Many people 
have argued that double-harvesting does harm to land's fertility and I think
while American and Canadian farmers can practise double-harvesting, they have
never thought about it.


>Then please explain why there were so many famines in Chinese history.  You
>mentioned "lack of records" in the west, but that is definitely false.  There
>have always been extensive historical records of history since Greco-Roman
>times in western Europe.

>It cannot be just the effect of warfare, since there was as much, if not more,
>warfare during historical times in western Europe than in China.  Technological
>deficiencies?  No, until the Ming Dynasty at least the Chinese were more
>advanced in farm technology.


Isn't it true that the most notorious famines occurred during periods of 
turmoil? Even if the Chinese lands may not be as fertile (let's take into
account the climate factor here) as the Ukrainian Plains,
this factor alone cannot cause a ubiguitous famine. The truth is
ancient Chinese wars were exceedingly destructive (maybe Western European
wars were no less destructive, but that's irrelavent here).

For example, right before the An-Shi Turmoil in Tang Dynasty, Chang'an and
Luo'yang (and just anywhere else in China proper) were very rich but after the 
8-year turmoil, the total population dropped from 55 million to 8 million
and residents (including many officials) of the two capitals were wearing 
paper instead of clothes!

A counter-example is the early Tang era. Li Shimin took the throne in
626. In 627, there was a terrible disaster in Central China caused by swarms of
locusts(?) and in the following year, there was the flooding. During these yrs,
Li Shimin was able to execute excellent political management (Tang was
small then but practically at peace) and avoid a nationwide famine. In 629, the
harvest was tremendous (eventually) and the country went on to survive
and became a regional power.

My point is most ancient Chinese famines were caused by warfare. Advance
farming tech (mentioned by Nelson Lu) and good political management in
peaceful times can well offset the possible non-productivity of the Chinese
soil - that is, if you can argue about it at all. Usu the gvmnt stores
surplus food during peaceful times to provide against military actions
and unfavorable harvests. At war times, however, with no gvnmt support,
a single natural disaster can hit the country real bad. 

Remember the Great Leap Forward in 1958 and the then prevalent movements
nationwide of free food, drinks, etc? This was not a communist invention.
Exactly the same thing happened in Sui Dynasty. When Sui was at her climax,
Yang Guang, the 2nd emperor, used to set up restaurants from Luo'yang all
the way to Chang'an to offer free(!) foods and drinks to passers-by. It is
ironic that only a few years later, starving rebels were hunting him down
all around the country.


>From what I've seen, famines in Chinese history mostly came from wars and/or
>natural disasters, but natural disasters must still be accounted for while
>calculating the fertility of the lands.  For example, how many floods the
>extent of the recent one in China have you seen, in our lifetime, in the
>United States or Europe?  The Yellow River itself is a natural disaster always
>waiting to happen.


Agreed. Natural disasters should be accounted for.

I suspect the Yellow River was a well-behaved river in ancient times. The
current flood peril has been due to unrelenting destruction of the trees that
used to forest the now Huangtu Plateau, isn't that so? Thus the fact
that the US and Europe have seen fewer and less severe floods is due
to their extensive forestry which China traditionally (not now unfortunately)
also enjoyed.


>This is *not* a glorification of western farming.  If it were, I would be
>saying that western farms are more productive *despite* being less fertile,
>which is not the case.  Until you can come up with the data, I won't believe
>that the Northern China Plains are more fertile than the Great Plains or the
>Ukrainian Plains.

With the continued practice of intensive farming, the fertility of
not just the Northern China Plains but plains of the whole China could
become more doubtful. 

- Li, Qiang
Newsgroups: soc.culture.taiwan