From: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu (Rich Winkel)
Subject: Yugoslavia: THE DANGERS AHEAD FOR KOSOVO
Followup-To: alt.activism.d
Originator: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu
Organization: PACH
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 1992 08:15:08 GMT

/** gen.newsletter: 147.0 **/
** Topic: The ACTivist 8#10, October 1992 **
** Written  9:32 pm  Sep 24, 1992 by web:act in cdp:gen.newsletter **
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THE DANGERS AHEAD FOR KOSOVO

By Andrew Pakula
The ACTivist

On July 7, 1991, a meeting on the growing crisis in Yugoslavia was 
held in Belgrade bringing together about 150 activists and intellectuals 
from different parts of the dissolving state as well as Europe and North
 America.  While much of the discussion focused on ways of resolving 
the conflict peacefully, the overall mood was pessimism and anxiety -- 
the war would escalate greatly in Croatia and spread to Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Kosovo and possibly beyond.

The mood of despair was fully justified by events.  By some estimates, 
more than 100,000 people died and more than 3 million lost everything 
and became refugees.  The phrase "ethnic cleansing" was added to the
 growing lexicon of hatred and violence and pictures showing emaciated,
terrified inmates of detention camps brought back unwanted memories 
of Auschwitz and Treblinka.

Sadly, like their many predecessors, the ongoing peace conferences 
in London and Geneva are almost certain to meet with failure.  It is 
unlikely that the fighting in Bosnia-Herzegovina will stop until the 
forces of aggression have reached their objectives.  In the near future, 
the conflict may well spread to the province of Kosovo, where the 
Albanians, although representing the great majority of the population, 
have suffered severe apartheid-like oppression at the hands of the 
Serbian minority.  

Slobodan Milosevic took power in Serbia in part by whipping up 
nationalistic sentiment against Kosovo's Albanians.  An attack on 
Kosovo followed by another round of ethnic cleansing may represent 
his last chance for staying in power.  Given the historical enmity 
between the Serbs and the Albanians, a war in Kosovo will likely 
be more violent and destructive than the conflicts in Croatia and 
Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Two immediate consequences of armed conflict in Kosovo would be 
a large number of refugees crossing into Albania and a likely 
destabilization of Macedonia, where one in three citizens is of 
Albanian background.  As a result, other states may well become 
involved in the war either militarily or by supporting one side or 
the other.  In the complex world of Balkan politics, the alliance of 
Albania, Macedonia and Bulgaria, supported by Turkey, would be 
pitted against Serbia, Montenegro and Greece, possibly supported 
by Romania.

One lesson learned from the conflict in ex-Yugoslavia is that 
once fighting starts it is impossible to stop and prevent escalation. 
Given the potential destructiveness of a war in Kosovo, it is critical 
that action be taken immediately to ensure that it does not happen.  
The international community should formally recognize the rights 
of Kosovo's legitimately elected representatives as partners in the
 negotiations to be held as soon as possible under the auspices of 
the UN.  Serbian leadership should be told that future recognition 
and any reductions in economic sanctions will depend on a peaceful 
and just resolution of the situation in Kosovo, on guarantees protecting 
the rights of non-Serbian citizens of Serbia, and on demilitarization in 
the region.

For more than a year, the world stood by helplessly witnessing a 
bloody war in ex-Yugoslavia.  Now, faced with the ticking time-bomb 
that is Kosovo, the region threatens to explode with unprecedented 
violence and possibly involve other states.  Prior to World War I, two 
bloody Balkan wars were fought mostly over the territories of Kosovo 
and Macedonia.  We must do everything in our power to ensure that 
it does not happen again.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

War Resisters International (WRI) is planning a three-day seminar 
with Kosova Albanians to discuss nonviolent strategies for resisting 
human right abuses and establishing their right to self-determination,
 October 26-28. The project is co-sponsored by the Human Rights 
Council of Kosova and other groups from the democratic opposition. 

International participants in the seminar, which will be held in the 
Kosovan city of Prishtine, will 
include researchers, social change strategists, and peace 
activist/researchers with similar experiences of conflict and 
resistance.

WRI, 55 Dawes St., London, SE17 1EL, ENGLAND
** End of text from cdp:gen.newsletter **

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