From: sommar@enea.se (Erland Sommarskog)
Subject: Re: Separation and integration
Organization: Enea Data AB
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1992 18:21:40 GMT

Ulick Stafford (ulick@angelico.helios.nd.edu) writes:
>It is interesting that
>while the EC approaches greater integfration and cooperation,
>former Eastern countires are rushing to break up, just because they
>think they can solve their problems by ridding themselves of their
>former masters.

But the paradox is only imaginary. What is happening in Eastern
and Western Europe is more or less the same, only the phases are
different. See how the discussion runs in the Western countries,
EC members and candidates from EFTA. You find an opposition who
is talking about giving about giving up national sovereignity.
In Denmark that oppostion even won the referendum. See also how
the regions gains importance in the EC at the expense of the
member states. Personally I see this regionalization as a positive
development, since it breaks down the EC in smaller more equally
sized pieces.

In the Eastern Europe they are regionalizing before they enter
the EC - which they with some certainity eventually will, although
hardly on this side of year 2000.

>In a few years after severe economic decine, I expect Slovakia will
>try and rejoin Bohemia once they realise how much they were subsidized 
>from there,

And do you think they Czechs will admit them? Actually, what the
Slovaks want is a loose confederation with a common army and
a common central bank. The Czech politicians have said no to
that either a maintained federation or a complete divorce. And
rightly so, I think, given to radically different political
directions of the political majorities in the two republics.

You are very likely to be right; they will eventually reunite.
But not as the resurrected Czechoslovakia, but as equal members
of the European Union, and that is a very important difference.
For instance that would put the Czech and Slovak langauges on
equal measure. (Notice that today Danish is a first class citizen,
while Catalan with twice as many speakers is not. Occitan we
shouldn't even mention.)

>several former Soviet rebublics will try to rejoin Russia.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see a union of two between Russia
and Whiterussia. Possibly Kazakhstan, or parts of could join, but
I hold it as unlikely. The rest of them: just forget it. Moldova
will team up with Roumania sooner or later. Possibly some of the
Central Asian republics will form some union when the temporary
CIS is buried. (CIS should be seen as a organization for ordered
dismantling of the USSR, nothing else.) Russia on the other hand
may have to kiss goodby to some of its republics. Chechen is
practically independent already.

However, as with the Czech and the Slovak republics may rejoin
under the EU umbrella, although that is in a quite distant future.

>The fueding will make it harder for Yugoslavia to ever mend its wounds.

Ironically, I find the highest probabilties for reunion be higher
here than elsewhere, mainly because of the complex demography.
(Although terrible attempts to "simplify" it are under progress.)
But in any case, Slovenia will never return, and provided the
EC can learn to tell the difference between Slovenia and the
rest (they have exhibited severe difficulties this far), Slovenia
might join the EC long before any of the other remnants of Yugo-
slavia.

>But it is intersting that while western Europe is becoming more
>integrated, Eastern Europe is splitting into fractured parts that
>have never in their history been nations.

Strangely though, of the new states in Eastern Europe, Whiterussia
and Macedonia are the only states which has no history of statehood
at all to talk of, although the case is weak for some of them.
(Shortlived states in the 20th century.) And no one had heard
about Belgium before 1830. Or about Yugoslavia before 1918. (Actually
1929.) And sometimes we may wish that we never had heard about
the latter either.

People who try to make paradoxes between the processes in Eastern and
Western Europe have clearly not understood what is going. It is easier
to find integration with smaller homogeneous units, than with big
heterogenous ones.
-- 
Erland Sommarskog - ENEA Data, Stockholm - sommar@enea.se
Dabras Laiks!