From: barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS: POWER CUTS, A TEST OF CONTRACEPTIVE CONSISTENCY
Originator: barnhart@gagme
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1992 03:48:48 GMT

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Title: ZIMBABWE: POWER CUTS, A TEST OF CONTRACEPTIVE CONSISTENCY


an inter press service feature

by tafadzwa matimba-mumba

harare, oct 8 (ips) -- in a normal economic year, electricity
power cuts would spur a ''baby boom'', significantly impacting
on the country's population size.

''its just logical that when people go to bed early they have
more babies. this is why our rural fertility rates are higher,
because there is no electricity and no evening entertainment'',
the director of the government's central statistical office
(cso), gibson mandishona, tolp ips.

however, with the power cuts introduced last month by the
zimbabwe electricity supply authority (zesa), prospects of a
baby boom in this southern african state are minimal.

''the power cuts are affecting about 30 percent of the
country's 11 million population, the ones living in urban
areas. the people most affected are the educated so they will
try and avoid an extra child because of the harsh economic
situation'',  says a demographer at the university of zimbabwe,
based in the capital.

''to them (the educated), these power cuts further reenforce
how bad the economic situation has become in the country'',
marvellous mhloyi told ips.

the drought currently ravaging southern africa has resulted
in a drastic drop in water levels at lake kariba, the country's
sole source of hydro-electric power, reducing the generating
capacity.

the southern african nation's power situation has been
further worsened by spare parts shortages and the permeation of
coal dust into the cooling system at hwange -- the country's
largest coal-fired power station in western zimbabwe.

consequently, a tough power rationing exercise has been
imposed, reducing power supply to both industrial and
residential areas. in some instances, cuts of up to eight hours
are experienced in residential areas, both during the day and in
the evening.

with the drought and the world bank and the international
monetary fund-imposed economic structural adjustment programme
introduced two years ago, inflation has reached more than 40
percent.

costs in basic necessities such as milk and bread have more
than doubled, putting them out of reach of most zimbabweans.
more than 7,000 civil servants have so far been retrenched under
the adjustment programme. (more/ips)


zimbabwe: power (2)

these increased costs mean that cost-conscious couples will
increase their contraceptive consistency to avoid unplanned
pregnancies, especially during this period of power cuts, mhloyi
says.

''but'', she adds, ''there are some people who use methods
which are not so effective such as withdrawal and traditional
methods. they are under high risk of falling pregnant''.

today more than 31 perecent of sexually-active women use the
pill for contraception, while a mere five percent use the
withdrawal method, and two percent use traditional methods.

at the moment, reproductive and contraceptive behaviour in
rural areas does not necessarily consider economic factors,
hence the 6.8 fertility rate, compared to 4.9 for the urban
areas, mandishona argues.

if economic factors fail to have an effect on the modern
urban population's behaviour, the power cuts ''will certainly
have an effect'' on population rates, he adds.

however, the actual impact on population numbers will be
minimal and may represent a mere fluctuation apparent after some
years because of the high population growth rate (about 3.1
percent annually) in zimbabwe, mhloyi says.

''in countries like the united states where you have low
population growth rates, increased fertility over a short period
would stand out. but in a country like zimbabwe, you may look at
it as mere fluctuation and you may not be able to see it'', says
mhloyi.

with the economic structural adjustment programme, the
government aims to reduce drastically the 3.1 percent growth
rate a year as part of its endeavour to improve the lives of its
11 million nationals. (end/ips/tm/apc/oa/92)

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