From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 28 Dec 1992 05:27:04 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                27 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 362, 12/27/92
10.7 FLUX=125.0  90-AVG=139        SSN=127      BKI=0010 0023  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=2.8E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=0011 0123  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=004,004,005,003,003,004,016,028   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.8   @ 0252UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.0   @ 1630UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 2135UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2325UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2330UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1810UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1518UT   BOUTF-MIN=55402NT @ 1901UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+163NT@ 2204UT   GOES7-MIN=E:-008NT@ 2240UT  G7-AVG=+103,+020,+013
GOES6-MAX=P:+179NT@ 2205UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-025NT@ 2343UT  G6-AVG=+121,-008,+026
 FLUXFCST=STD:127,129,130;SESC:127,129,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,010/012,010,010
    KFCST=2223 3111 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=009,015   27DAY-KP=0022 3332 3344 3322
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:16NT@2011UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All Regions on the disk were
       essentially quiet and stable. Region 7374 (S10W46) continues to
       decay slowly. Region 7381 (N05E02) continues to grow slowly and
       is now the largest group on the disk at about 230 millionths.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours. A weak sudden impulse occurred at 2011UT and
       measured 16 nanotesla at Boulder.  The source of this
       disturbance is thought to be from a recent filament
       disappearance.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 28 dec-30 dec

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 dec-30 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/25
                        Minor Storm           10/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  The arrival of a disturbance late in the day has
       produced minor signal degradation over the high and polar
       latitude paths.  Minor signal degradation is expected to
       continue for the next 24 hours and should remain confined to
       the higher latitude paths.  Middle to equatorial paths should
       see near-normal propagation, with slightly above normal fading
       and multipathing possible in the night and morning sectors.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7370  S08W92  049  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7374  S10W19  336  0130 CAO  05  004 BETA
7376  N16W35  352  0030 CRO  05  006 BETA
7378  N11W24  341  0060 CSO  05  004 BETA
7379  S11W00  317  0060 CSO  02  004 BETA
7381  N05E02  315  0230 DAO  09  019 BETA
7383  S05E01  316  0010 BXO  04  007 BETA
7384  N02W27  344  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7372  S12W63  020                    PLAGE
7382  S18E23  294                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 DECEMBER TO 30 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7355 S19   203


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                  NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


**  End of Daily Report  **
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