Newsgroups: rec.photo
Subject: Re: Photo CD
From: CUNY/Spartacus <I18BC@CUNYVM.BITNET>
Date: Thursday, 24 Dec 1992 18:03:29 EST
Organization: City University of New York/ University Computer Center
Supersedes: <92359.171843I18BC@CUNYVM.BITNET>

In article <Bzrv3F.Dr7@ra.nrl.navy.mil>, buck@ra.nrl.navy.mil (Loren Buchanan)
says:
>First a bit of netiquete, this topic has nothing to do with rec.arts.books,
>and second this thread is no longer appropriate for rec.video or rec.photo
>so I changed the followup to go to comp.storage.

[I apologize for that, I didn't check the topic line on the original
 post.  I should have edited.  People should stop cross posting
 shame shame on the original poster! :-) ]
>
>Per has hit upon a very important point.  I don't see CDs in my 100 year
>crystal ball (except in various museums and in late 20th century arcania
>collectors hands).  Heck we can no longer read 800bpi 9track tapes here
>and have no easy access to IBM clone 5 1/4 inch floppy drives.
>
>Getting back to my crystal ball as what is going to happen to CDs.  First
>will be the development of a high density format CD which will use a blue
>(or possibly a blue-green) laser.  These disks will hold probably three to
>four times the storage of current disks.  The computer industry will quickly
>jump to this new format, the music industry probably won't.

[absolutely correct, the computer industry will move to the new blue-light
lasers, however I'm pretty sure these new drives will be downward compatible
with todays CD-ROM players.  Kodak can decided to do the same with its
"professional" versions of the CD.  There is a new trend in the industry
to included CD-ROM drives as standard equipment on personal computers at
affordable prices.  (eg. Apple and Sun).  Personal computers prices are
dropping incredibly fast.    Besides, 15 years in computer
years is equivalent between the difference of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic
eras. Within 15 years we will have some sort of affordable high capacity
writable medium for which we can make our own transfers.  Fifteen years
is sufficient time for the computer industry to come up with a solution.]

>
>Other technologies I see as being major long term competitors to CDs are
>semiconductor and holographic storage techniques.  I have not seen any
>thing recently on holographic, so I will leave that to someone else to
>discuss.  I see by the end of this decade 2Gigabyte solid state disk drives
>in the PCMCIA format for under $500US (1992 dollars).  In another 10 years
>it will be 2Terabytes for the same price.  In the same time period I would
>expect CD technology to make one more jump forward in terms of density, but
>the killer is going to be speed.  You can only spin these disk so fast and
>I don't see getting data rates much faster than 10Megabytes per second (if
>you can even get that fast), while these other technologies will have transfer
>rates of 1Gigabyte per second (give or take an order of magnitude) in the next
>few years.
>
>What does all of this mean for PhotoCD, I give it a useful life of 10 to
>15 years before we will take our PhotoCD collection and transfer it to some
                                                     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>other format.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Exactly my point.  If the PhotoCD becomes successful there will be money
to be made in transfering the photoCD images to a new medium.  If
you look in the back of many computer publications, there are small
companies who specialize in data transfers between mediums.  If a large
enough market exist 10 years from now, there will be incentive for
some entrepreneur to do the same for the PhotoCD unless Kodak themselves
beat them to it.  As for the propriety compression Kodak uses, this
is where I see a legitimate beef.  Kodak should be encouraged to
release this information.

Besides, who ever said just because you have a CD negative that you
have to get rid of the original negative/slide?  A CD negative makes
a good companion in which you can create prints off the CD, keeping
the original safe.  And if a new technology comes around, just rescan
the darn thing or have the digital image transfered.  Use the CD for
presentations on projection t.vs or for distributing proofs or what not.

Honestly, I can understand the concern over resolution, but not this
long term storage debate.  No one ever said to burn your negatives.
>
>B Cing U
>
>Buck
>
>--
>Loren Buchanan (buck@curie.nrl.navy.mil) | #include <standard.disclaimer>
>NRL Code 5842, 4555 Overlook Ave.        | #include <computer.graphics>
>Washington, DC 20375      (202) 767-3884 | #include <electronic.music>
>Phone tag, America's fastest growing business sport.
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Newsgroups: rec.photo