From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1992 11:19:35 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 356, 12/21/92
10.7 FLUX=145.4  90-AVG=138        SSN=140      BKI=0123 2232  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B4.8     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=1133 3333  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=003,006,019,037,015,017,021,007   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 1215UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.1   @ 2156UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2305UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2035UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1110UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 1525UT   BOUTF-MIN=55388NT @ 1825UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+109NT@ 2140UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-022NT@ 1034UT  G7-AVG=+073,+030,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 2140UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-016NT@ 2139UT  G6-AVG=+092,-001,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,155,155;SESC:150,155,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=0023 4210 0023 4210  27DAY-AP=013,013   27DAY-KP=2234 3332 2224 4222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Flare activity was minimal.
       Region 7374 (S08E36) had the brunt of the occasional flares, as
       it evolved to have a weak delta emerge in the intermediate
       spots. Its bright plage suggests the potential for higher
       activity. Elsewhere, surge and prominence activity was seen at
       NE and SE limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Any M-class activity should originate in
       Region 7374.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled.
       Substorms brought episodes of major storm conditions to high
       latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
       substorms may continue, with the most pronounced effects seen
       at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 22 dec-24 dec

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 dec-24 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Occasional isolated minor signal degradation was
       reported over some high latitude stations due to localized
       geomagnetic substorming.  Similar conditions may occasionally
       exist over these higher latitude regions for the next several
       days, although no significant global changes in propagation are
       expected.  Low and middle latitude paths should see mostly good
       propagation.  High and polar latitude paths should see
       generally fair to occasionally mildly poor propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7369  S07W22  058  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7370  S09W13  049  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7371  S12W88  124  0050 DAO  05  002 BETA
7372  S12E18  018  0060 HAX  02  003 ALPHA
7374  S08E36  000  0400 DAI  08  025 BETA-DELTA
7375  N14W67  103  0150 DAO  10  008 BETA
7376  N17E45  351  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7378  N13E53  343  0080 CAO  04  007 BETA
7379  S11E79  317  0070 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7366  S10W73  109                    PLAGE
7368  S33W52  088                    PLAGE
7377  N17W36  072                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 DECEMBER TO 24 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 2251 2251 2251                          160



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
78   S35E42 S45E37 S35E12 S25E17  018  ISO   POS   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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