From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Red Sox vs. Jays
Originator: news@ernie.Princeton.EDU
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Mon, 6 Apr 1992 02:26:08 GMT

In <1992Apr5.152017.25372@tc.cornell.edu> jfe@alchemy.tn.cornell.edu (Brian Chung) writes:
>In <1992Apr4.005436.14902@berlioz.nsc.com> roger@thoreau.nsc.com ( Roger Wakefield) writes:

>>Well, it seems that the conventional wisdom has the Blue Jays running
>>away with the A.L. East and marching to the World Series.  Peter Gammons
>>has picked the Sox THIRD & says they could finish closer to fifth than first!

>>I must strongly disagree.

>	I, too, disagree.  But it's because the Sox will finish second, not
>third.  The Sox are the best second best team in the AL East.

Oh, I agree, but for a slightly different reason.  (Check my sig.)

>>Granted, Toronto is a very solid team all-around, and Winfield will help
>>to stabilize their lineup (assuming he stays healthy and doesn't show
>>his age all of a sudden).  Substituting Morris for Candiotti, however,
>>(why doesn't anyone ever mention that the Jays did lose Candiotti in the
>>off-season?) is at best a wash, or more likely, a net loss for the Jays
>>over the course of a full season.  If the Jays do make the playoffs,
>>then they'll probably do better with Morris then Candiotti in a short
>>series, but that's not the point as I contend the Jays won't win the division.

I have no idea why you think Morris would help more than Candiotti in
the playoffs.  Candiotti is better than Morris; I think he'd help more.

>>I'll concede the Jays look to have the better bullpen, if Henke and
>>Timlin (and Stieb--> Wells) are okay (note 3 pitching ???'s).  But the
>>starting rotation edge goes to the Sox:  no one on the Jays deep staff
>>is as good as Clemens or Viola, and no one is better than Joe Hesketh
>>(who I view as good as Key or Morris; I realize this is a somewhat
>>controversial viewpoint).  I also think the Jays edge in the 4-5
>>starters does not outweigh their disadvantage in 1-3.  AND, best of all
>>for Sox fans, when the post-season begins, what you need most is a
>>dominating 1-3.

I think you underestimate Stieb, who is excellent, and Key, who is very
good.  However, I agree with your main point, which is that the Jays top
3 are not as good as the Sox's top 3.  And I think it's a *little*
premature to worry about the post-season.  And since they won't be
playing each other in the postseason, I don't think it matters much.

>	First of all, let's discuss who will win the Division, not the play-
>offs.  Now that I got that out of the way...  I disagree with your definition
>"good."  Nobody on the Jays staff throws as fast as Clemens, I agree.  But
>the Jays starting lineup is more consistent than the Sox starters.  Key,
>Stieb and Morris are the pitchers that will keep the scores low so that the
>Jays hitters can score enough runs to win.  In case of Stieb, he can be as

And they have to, because Jay's hitters don't score many runs.

>dominating as Clemens with his wicked slider and curveball.  Jays fourth and
>fifth starters are question marks, indeed.  I never liked Stottlemyre and
>Guzman is only a sophomore.  I do expect Guzman to do worse than the last
>season.  But Stottlemyre has been improving (no matter how much I dislike him)
>and will be a solid fourth man.  On the other hand, Clemens and Viola tend
>to be inconsistent, Clemens more than Viola.  Last season, when Clemens
>finally came off that slump, the Sox were too late to catch up to the Jays.
>Joe Hesketh used to be short/middle relief man for the Expos.  He had a
>decent season last year, but he may get tired as he tries to adjust to the
>role of a starter.  That's why the Jays had to get Guzman, to compensate for
>Wells going back into the middle relief role.

Hesketh's only problem has been health.  He's always been good when
healthy.  Clemens is the LEAST inconsistent pitcher in the game, with
the possible exception of Jeff Robinson, who's consistently awful.

Clemens doesn't have slumps.  His *worst* month last year was May, (3-2, 3.80).

The main thing Toronto has over Boston is depth.  Toronto has Stieb,
Key, Morris, Stottlemyer, Guzman, and Wells as possible starters.  None
of these are as good as Clemens/Viola, but they are all quality starters.

>>Peter Gammons trashed the Sox the other night on ESPN and has written
>>some negative columns in the Globe as well.  Usually I respect Peter's
>>judgement, especially on the Red Sox, but one comment which particularly
>>annoyed me was that except for catcher, there isn't a single position
>>where the Blue Jay player wasn't better than the Sox player.

>>Wrong!!  My personal Analysis:  (all opinions my own, and perhaps unjustified)

>>C:      Pena        Myers/Borders  (edge Pena)

>Definitely Pena.I'm a diehard Jays fan, but I'll take Pena over anyone anytime.

Well, I hate both teams, and I can't figure out what you two are
thinking.  I'd take Borders/Myers over Tony "can't hit" Pena any day.

>>1B:     Vaughn      Olerud         (edge Olerud)

>	No problem here.

>>2B:     Reed        Alomar    (edge Alomar, but Reed is 2nd best 2B in AL IMO

>	No problem here either.

Huh?  Reed is an average secondbaseman, once you factor in Fenway.
Whitaker and Franco are *much* better.   Alomar is 3rd in the league,
and then maybe Reed.  Maybe Knoblauch, then Reed. 

>>SS:     Rivera/     Lee/Zosky      (no strong edge until the dust settles)
>>    Naehring/Valentin

>	Zosky has been sent to Syracuse.  I agree with your analysis.

Yeah, this falls under the "does it really matter?" category.

>>3b:     Boggs       Gruber      (edge Boggs, obviously Gammons does not agree)

>	Boggs?  Well, he is getting old.  I like Gruber's defense better
>than that of Boggs.  As far as hitting goes, Boggs is a better hitter than
>Gruber, but the Jays have other guys who can do Boggs' job.  So I'll take
>the better defense.

Huh?  Name *1* player the Jays have who can do Boggs' job.  "Boggs' job"
is to hit leadoff.  Who in the league besides Rickey and maybe Molitor
can do the job as well as Boggs?  

>>rf:     Plantier    Bell           (edge Plantier, although I haven't
>>seen Bell much)

>	Disagree.  This is the same situation as the shortstop.  I would give
>edge to anyone until the season ends.

Why?  Plantier has better SLG and OBP.   I know it's a small sample, but
Plantier was better *in the majors* than Bell was *in the minors.*  His
minor league numbers were also better.

>>cf:     Burks       White          (edge Burks)

>	Edge White.  I like White's speed and hitting. 

Well, I've always thought Burks was overrated, but there ain't no way in
hell White hits better than Burks.  Factor in defense, and you might
want to argue that White catches up.

>>lf:     Greenwell   Carter         (edge Carter)

>	Carter for MVP this year.

Yeah, right.  The *only* think Carter does is pile up RBIs, and I think
the voters are starting to realize that this isn't that big a deal.

>>dh:     Clark       Winfield       (strong edge Clark, why doesn't
>>Gammons agree?)
>	Because Winfield IS better?  Clark just has not been producing.
>Winfield produces a lot more than Clark.

Huh?       Winfield  Clark
1990:      348/466   441/553
1991:      326/472   374/466
1992 proj: 321/401   383/405  I think these SLGs are low, but they are
				similar, either way.
Career:    354/479   380/482

Clark produces a lot more than Winfield.  Always has, always will.  He
*walks*, and Winfield doesn't.  At least not as much.

>>Roger Wakefield
 
>T. H. Brian Chung         |These are my opinions.  If you want them, you will

-- 
David M. Nieporent              |ALEast 92: 1.Baltimore 2.Boston 3.Toronto
niepornt@phoenix.princeton.edu  |4. Detroit 5.Milwaukee 6.NY 8.Cleveland
"Baseball stathead, and card-carrying member of the ACLU.  And proud of it."
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