HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: dave@snitor.sni.ca (Dave Till)
Subject: Re: My picks, AL/NL East
Organization: Siemens Nixdorf, Sietec Open Systems, Toronto, Canada
Distribution: na
Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1992 16:20:34 GMT

In article <Dec.18.13.58.32.1992.10719@pilot.njin.net> gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky - Hobokenite) writes:
>the funny thing is, people claim that cecil fielder couldn't hit 
> before he went to japan.  i'd bet that most people on this newsgroup
> know that he put up very good minor league numbers, and the jays
> never stuck him straight at first - and when he played, part time,
> he put up numbers comparable to those he has reached at detroit.
>
>i remember (since i invest in baseball cards) saying that mcgriff
> would be the one stuck behind fielder, since fielder would hit
> more home runs, and the jays would trade mcgriff, not fielder.
> oops.  i was wrong.  somewhat.

I remember Fielder as a Jay, and I think everybody knew that he could hit.
However, they also knew that he could eat, and assumed that he would
soon be too overweight to be able to hit, let alone field or run.

--Dave "much thinner than Cecil, but can't hit, field or run" Till
  e-mail address:  dave@silver.sni.ca or dave@snitor.uucp
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: roger@crux.Princeton.EDU (Roger Lustig)
Subject: Re: stats help
Originator: news@nimaster
Reply-To: roger@astro.princeton.edu (Roger Lustig)
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 1992 04:32:08 GMT

In article <BzzvrB.KCD@mentor.cc.purdue.edu> poutsmaj@mace.cc.purdue.edu (unknown) writes:
>I have a question regarding basic probability theory:  (I'll use baseball
>terms because that's what I'm using)  Suppose I have two teams EXACTLY
>equal to each other such that, when they play, the probability of either
>team winning is .500000 etc.  If they were to play, say, 1620 games (10
>seasons) against each other, what is the probability that they will each
>win exactly half?  What would be the distribution of possible outcomes?
>If I have two teams that play and each win half, what is the probability
>that the two are exactly equal ?  Any insight you can give me to this 
>problem would be helpful (I realize that this is probably elementary 
>probability theory, but that was one math class I never had).

Yes, elementary probability theory.  Binomial distribution.  Think
coin tosses, or toin cosses, as most stats teachers wind up saying...

Now think of Pascal's Triangle, which you learned about in 10th grade
or so:

             1
           1   1
         1   2   1
       1   3   3   1
     1   4   6   4   1
   1   5  10  10   5   1
 1   6  15  20  15   6   1
etc.

Note the sum of each row.

If you call the top row the 0th row, and the first item in each row 
the 0th item, then the value of the i-th item in the r-th row is

      r!
   -------
   i! * (r-i)!

where x! is the product of all the integers from 1 to x.  The formula above
can also be written 
       (r)
       (i)
  [actually, only one big set of parens]
and pronounced "r-choose-i" -- because it's the number of different
combinations of i items you can choose from a set of size r.  Oh, right--
x! is pronounced "x-factorial."

OK -- now  what's the answer to your question?  Well, the binomial distribution
with 1620 trials is represented by the 1620th row of Pascal's triangle.
And the 810th entry is 

     1620!
-------------
810! * 810!

Now, all you have to do is divide this by 2^1620 and you you have your 
probability.  All rootie?

If you feel like computing it, try taking a few logs, since it's all
multiplication and division.  You and your computer will feel better.

Roger


Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: poutsmaj@mace.cc.purdue.edu (unknown)
Subject: stats help
Organization: Purdue University
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 1992 00:23:34 GMT

I have a question regarding basic probability theory:  (I'll use baseball
terms because that's what I'm using)  Suppose I have two teams EXACTLY
equal to each other such that, when they play, the probability of either
team winning is .500000 etc.  If they were to play, say, 1620 games (10
seasons) against each other, what is the probability that they will each
win exactly half?  What would be the distribution of possible outcomes?
If I have two teams that play and each win half, what is the probability
that the two are exactly equal ?  Any insight you can give me to this 
problem would be helpful (I realize that this is probably elementary 
probability theory, but that was one math class I never had).

thanks bunches
paul

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dae@cbnews.cb.att.com (david.a.elliott)
Subject: Re: Spehr
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: na
Date: Wed, 23 Dec 1992 13:49:59 GMT

In article <1992Dec22.195657.18705@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>In article <1992Dec22.133601.13139@cbnews.cb.att.com> dae@cbnews.cb.att.com (david.a.elliott) writes:
>>Maybe, but there are a few things in his favor.  First, he walks a lot, so
>>even if he bats only .230 (which will probably happen), he will still have a
>>better than average OBP.  
>
>What's "a lot"?  In AAA, 1990-91, he walked 66 times in 522 AB.  Of course,
>he also had 14 HBP, but neither of those really carried over to his 88 PA
>cup-of-coffee with KC in '91 (9 BB, 1 HBP).

Last year, he put up .253/.384/.453 numbers at Omaha.  He walked 61 times
in 336 at bats, which is a rate of over 90 walks for 500 at bats.  If he can
give the Expos a .230/.330/.395 next year, he'll be valuable to them.

I don't know Spehr's pre-Royals background, but he played 2 years of A ball,
and 3 years of AAA (starting at AAA at age 23).  After  1.5 years of AAA, he
had demonstrated he was ready for the bigs (right around his 25th birthday).
His PT was sporadic in KC in 91, as Mayne got most of the work after
Macfarlane's injury.

With 3 catchers (and no injuries) on the roster last year, Spehr did not get
a chance in KC (although I think he is better than 2 of the 3 guys they
had).

He'll turn 27 on July 2.


Dave Elliott
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: wayne@ultra.com (Wayne Hathaway)
Subject: Re: 1993 Schedules??
Reply-To: wayne@ultra.com (Wayne Hathaway)
Organization: Ultra Network Technologies
Date: Thu, 24 Dec 92 01:45:35 GMT

 > Have the 1993 schedules been published anywhere yet?

I don't know about "published," but I got a copy of the 1993 Giants
schedule this week with my season ticket renewal package.  I hadn't
heard anything definitive, so I was a bit surprised to see that the
National League copied the American League's "balanced schedule."
It was also a bit of a shock to realize that each visiting team only
comes to town TWICE each season! :-(

But on the plus side, the Giants have reverted to an Opening *DAY* and
it's against the Marlins, so we've got at least a reasonable shot at
winning it!  TAILGATE TIME!!! :-)

    Wayne Hathaway               domain: wayne@Ultra.COM
    Ultra Network Technologies     uucp: ...!ames!ultra!wayne
    101 Daggett Drive             phone: 408-922-0100 x132
    San Jose, CA 95134              FAX: 408-433-9287
From: ez027993@chip.ucdavis.edu (Gary L. Huckabay)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Bay Area baseball
Date: 22 Dec 92 18:01:25 GMT
Organization: Computing Services, UC Davis

In article <75809@apple.apple.COM> chuq@Apple.COM (Eeyore's Evil Twin) writes:
>Personally, I love Bill Swift as a starter -- if I thought his arm could
>handle it. His offseason training will have a lot to do with that, and I
>don't know how that came along.

Actually, his offseason training will have virtually nothing to do with
it.  Arms are not something you can easily strengthen, at least in terms of
a pitching motion.  The parts of your anatomy that are vulnerable to injury,
like your cuff and tendons don't really benefit from training.  

Basically, pitcher longevity is a gift from God.  Some guys have reliever
arms, some guys have starter arms.  You can strengthen and balance your 
muscles to minimize the strain on your cuff and tendons, but making the
move from starter to reliever without having a GUN of an arm isn't easy,
or very likely.  And Swift isn't noted for his fastball.  

Swift is a perfect Spot Starter/Long Reliever.  And there IS a lot of
value in that role.  Get him 10 starts a year, well spaced, and
let him throw 150 innings of DP balls total, and that's a very valuable
pitcher.  60 games, 10-12 starts, 140-160 innings, 140-160 hits,
25-45 BB, 50-75 K, and a bunch of DPs would sure be welcome in Oakland.

>                       Sterling Holloway: We'll miss you.

And Gilda Radner.  And Jim Henson.And Stevie Ray Vaughan.  And Kevin
Magee.  And Andrea Morgan.  And Andy Kaufman.

-- 
*    Gary Huckabay     * "Hi, Joel, it's Kathy."  "Hi, Kath."  "I think you 
*  "Official keeper    *  better come over.  Gary's not well.  He's chewing 
*  of the r.s.b. ammo  *  on the carpet, his eyes are red, and he's sobbing 
*   and weapons hoard."*  uncontrollably." "The A's signed Storm.  He'll live." 
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: nlu@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: blue jays-eichhorn??
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Distribution: rec
Date: Wed, 23 Dec 1992 23:58:42 GMT

In article <1992Dec23.151236.24732@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca> golchowy@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca (Gerald Olchowy) writes:

>Even the Blue Jays have financial limitations...Henke, Maldonado,
>Lee, Gruber were all financial decisions to free up money to
>pay for Carter, and the arbitration decisions, this year and next
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>year for Olerud, Ward, and Borders, and to have the financial
>flexibility to be able to pursue a free agent or two next year.

That's the problem.  Why pay too much for Carter?  Better yet, why pay for
Carter at all?  They could have kept Maldonado and let Carter go, and then
re-sign Henke and/or Eichhorn.

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: Julio Machado
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Thu, 31 Dec 1992 19:43:56 GMT

In article <92365.160343UD156844@NDSUVM1.BITNET> <UD156844@NDSUVM1.BITNET> writes:
>What ever happend to Machado during the 1992 season?  He is expect to
>turn up somewhere in 1993?  Your answers and comments are welcome! :)

Machado was a suspect in a murder investigation in Venezuela.  I understood 
that he was not permitted to leave the country as a result, and thus was on 
the shelf for the entire year.  I then remember that he was to return to 
action late this summer or early fall.  While I cannot find any data on him 
for this winter, I suggest you look at the stats for Zulia, VZ, which is his 
home town.
From: golchowy@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca (Gerald Olchowy)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Expos Clinch! Wallach to Dodgers
Date: 26 Dec 92 23:04:42 GMT
Organization: University of Toronto Chemistry Department

In article <1992Dec26.041708.1@ulkyvx.louisville.edu> djcoll04@ulkyvx.louisville.edu writes:
>
>Remember, Expos fans, that they told us that Tim Raines was washed up.  He 
>has played consistent ball since the trade while Calderon was on the bench
>and Barry Jones was a wash.
>

Calderon, when he was healthy, played very well for the Expos...in his
first season with the Expos, he even played in the All-Star game.  There
was no indication that if healthy, that Calderon would not hit .280 with
20 HRs., and 80 RBI...the reason Calderon is gone is that Alou can
probably to that for $2 million less a season, with better defense.

>Doesn't anyone out there believe in the importance of a good defense and a
>veteran, experienced presence in that defense?  
>

The Expos have to take risks to be competitive...they have all sorts of
young bodies for 3rd, who can provide the same order of magnitude of
offense as Wallach...what they don't have is the revenue to pay for
salary arbitration decisions on key players like Grissom, DeShields,
and Walker.  Giving Wallach and Calderon away, frees up a lot of money
to enable them to hold onto the crucial young players for an extra year
or two.

Gerald
From: randall@informix.com (Randall Rhea)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: A's sign Sierra
Keywords: sierra canseco a's
Date: 24 Dec 92 00:40:58 GMT
Organization: Informix Software, Inc.


I was very glad to hear that the A's signed Sierra.  The trade for
Canseco looks like it will amount to something.

With Ruben, the A's get a better bat than they did with Jose, but
without the speeding tickets, loud mouth, leaving the game early,
smashing into his wife's BMW, the Madonna crap, the guns, etc. etc.
etc.   I think Canseco has tremendous talent, but the injuries he's
suffered since his banner 1988 year have made him less of a player
than he once was.


-- 

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Randall Rhea                                        Informix Software, Inc. 
Project Manager, MIS Sales/Marketing Systems    uunet!pyramid!infmx!randall
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Expos Clinch! Wallach to Dodgers
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Sun, 3 Jan 1993 09:15:27 GMT

In article <1992Dec26.153427.1@ulkyvx.louisville.edu> djcoll04@ulkyvx.louisville.edu writes:

>Okay, yes I am new to this network and yes I learned a few things in my
>somewhat overzealous defense of Wallach.  Maybe I had I few too many Xmas
>brews before I got on this computer last night.  

No problem.  I don't think your defense was that overzealous.  Wait
until you see the monthly "Jack Morris sucks/No he's a Veteran Leader"
thread.  *That's* an overzealous defense.  Or the biweekly Joe Carter or
Cecil Fielder threads of the same type.

>However, with all due respect to those of you with the Harvard-sized stat
>book libraries out there, I do believe that there are intangibles, such as
>leadership, that are not accounted for in the statistics that you and I both
>collect.  The lack thereof was among the several reasons cited for the White
>Sox's poorer than expected performance last year.  That was the point that I
>was trying to get across.

I can cite several other reasons for the White Sox's poorer than
expected performance: Steve Sax, Lance Johnson, George Bell, and Dan
Pasqua.

Of the four, only George Bell wasn't awful, and he's so overrated by the
media that they were going to overrate the White Sox's expected performance.

Oh, did I forget Bobby Thigpen?  

They had *too* much leadership, like Kirk McCaskill, Greg Hibbard, Thigpen,
Sax, Pasqua, and Bell, and not enough talent.

It's not that intangibles can't exist.  It's just that when you can
explain 97% of their season by the stats alone, without any recourse to
intangibles, it doesn't seem to make sense to ascribe more than 3% of
the blame for their performance to these intangibles.

And anyway, unlike Slugging or On-Base ability, there is absolutely no
way to measure these intangibles (by definition), but more importantly,
no way to even *see* them ahead of time.

When a team plays badly, it is *said* to have poor intangibles.  So you can't
use their bad play as *proof* that their intangibles affected them.

And you can't predict them.  Will the Mets have a good OBP next year?
No, not with their current batch of players.  I can say that with 95%
confidence.  Will they have good intangibles next year?  I have no idea,
and neither does anyone else.  Will the media *say* they have good 
intangibles next year?  Almost certainly not, since they won't play well
at all.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Is it too early to start making predictions for 1993?
niepornt@phoenix.    | Probably, but that never stopped me before.
   princeton.edu     | ALE: Baltimore ALW: Chicago NLE: Montreal NLW: Atlanta
Baltimore Orioles 93 | AL MVP: Cal Ripken  AL Cy Young: Mike Mussina
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Julio Machado
From: <UD156844@NDSUVM1.BITNET>
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1992 16:03:43 CST
Organization: North Dakota Higher Education Computer Network

What ever happend to Machado during the 1992 season?  He is expect to
turn up somewhere in 1993?  Your answers and comments are welcome! :)


Roberto Alvarez                       (Internet) UD156844@VM1.NODAK.EDU

Programmer/Analyst                    (Bitnet)   UD156844@NDSUVM1
University of North Dakota
From: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: My picks, AL/NL East
Date: 22 Dec 1992 19:47:18 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
NNTP-Posting-Host: thor.ins.cwru.edu


In a previous article, cej0@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (CHARLES EDWARD JAMES) says:

>In article <1026@blue.cis.pitt.edu>, genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
>>Thus spake cej0@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (CHARLES EDWARD JAMES):
>(much deleted)
>
>1.  Alomar was injured early in the year. (may, I think, while making a putout
>at home.  McGwire tried to run him over.  Short summary: Mcgwire never touched
>the plate, and Alomar's shoulder got screwed up.)  If he'd been healthy all
>year he would have had another year like '89.  This year he will bat over .300
>and will be stellar on D again.

   What's your basis for saying he'll hit .300?  He never has.  He was average
offensively his rookie year, and he's been pretty bad since then.  Why will
he suddenly surge?

>
>2.  (I know I'll get it for this one.)  I think that Alomar could be compared
>to one of my all time favorite players, Johnny Bench.  Bench is undoubtly one
>of the best catchers ever, but before the end of his career I think that
>Alomar will be able to be mentioned in the same sentence with Bench.
>

   How does a 27 year old guy who's developed a reputation for injuries 
compare with a hall of famer?  Again, please give some basis for saying
these things.  I watch the Tribe virtually every time they're on, and, in
Alomar, I see a good catcher strongly connected to the word "if".  He has
to stay healthy for full season to show people his talents.  What have you
seen in him that makes him one of the best ever?  I've obviously missed it.


SfH
-- 
Steven F. Hubbard                ** "You can't squeeze water out of a rock
Case Western Reserve University  **      or a turnip, or whatever." 
Department of Physics            **  
Cleveland, OH 44106              **  -- John Madden
From: sgs@stein.u.washington.edu (Steven Smith)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Birthdays
Date: 31 Dec 1992 18:28:28 GMT
Organization: University of Washington, Seattle
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: stein.u.washington.edu

Baseball Birthdays

December 30
Sandy Koufax, 1935 (HOF)
Frank Torre, 1931
Jose Morales, 1944
Jim Viox, 1890
Tom Murphy, 1945
Bob Schroeder, 1944

December 31
Mike "King" Kelly, 1857 (HOF)
Tommy Byrne, 1919
Bobby Byrne, 1884
Rick Aguilera, 1961
Sylvester Johnson, 1900
Donell Nixon, 1961
Fred Beebe, 1880
Joe Simpson, 1951
Ted Gray, 1924
Tom Connolly, 1870

--Steve

-- 
 sgs@u.washington.edu             * "The tall people want what the 
 Steve Smith                      *  short people got."
 University of Washington HR-20   *    --D. Wiggin-"Philosophy of the World"	 
 Seattle, WA 98195                *
From: lavender@kuhub.cc.ukans.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: <None>
Date: 29 Dec 92 20:42:16 CST
Organization: University of Kansas Academic Computing Services

hghjg


Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: jpalmer@uwovax.uwo.ca (The Econoclast)
Subject: Scouting [was Re: Cordero]
Organization: University of Western Ont, London
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1992 18:09:02 GMT

In article <20554@ucdavis.ucdavis.edu>, ez027993@chip.ucdavis.edu (Gary L. Huckabay) writes:

[...]

> Scouting is valuable in youngsters.  After age 20, I believe scouting's
> utility approaches zero very quickly.

	Can you tell I'm trying to avoid marking exams?

	Every time a major-league scout comes through here to look at
the players on the AA London Tigers and their opponents, I ask him
(there are no hers in baseball scouting, at least none have come
through here) the Roger Maynard Question:

"What statistics do you like to look at when scouting a player?"

	Every one of them so far has replied, "How many rings does he
have?"

	Or something to that effect.

	The typical response is, "I don't really place too much faith
in the stats for a player. I think the only way to judge him is to
watch him and see what he can do."

	My jaundiced reinterpretation: "I know stats are valuable, but
if my bosses ever find out how valuable stats are, I'll be out of a
job, so I have to try to talk up stats that aren't very useful for
assessment purposes, and I have to talk up the value of watching a
player play a few games."

	E.g. they all seemed to be saying that Ivan Cruz might be a
prospect because he had so many RBIs. Cruz has Cecil Fielder speed on
the basepaths and Cecil Fielder fielding ability. He also has
warning-track power and not much patience at the plate. But because
lots of guys got on base lots of times in front of him, he had loads
of RBIs (again, Cecil Fielder type numbers). 

	So they lied. They DO look at stats. They look at the standard
triple-crown stats. And what they see doesn't usually affect their
assessments. 

	I DO think there is a role for having scouts visit parks to
watch players play. But the role isn't watching them swing or run or
throw or field. Instead, it is to pick up on gossip and news about
injuries and rumours.

	So, Huck, if the Marlins called you tomorrow to offer you
a scouting position, how much would you travel? What
stats would you want to see, and what would you look for in person
that might not show up in the stats?

-- 
  Regards,

  John Palmer    London, Ontario       Voice: (519) 661-3533     FAX: 661-3666
  reply to jpalmer@uwovax.uwo.ca       The Economics Institute for Journalists
  ============================================================================
  The New Economics: Overlapping Generalizations & Rationalized Expectorations
From: colinm@max.carleton.ca (Colin McFadyen)
Subject: Re: Who is Jays Shortstop
Organization: Carleton University
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1992 19:41:36 GMT

In <1h7p1kINNcr4@matt.ksu.ksu.edu> mgriffin@matt.ksu.ksu.edu (Mark Griffin) writes:

>Since Manuel (Don't call me Manny) Lee signed with the Rangers, who will be
>the Jays new shortstop.  Will they give the job to Zosky, or will Sojo move
>to short.  Or, is there somebody else in the organization that can play there.
>Or, will they try to make a trade or sign someone else.  None of the options
>I see look all that great, but Sojo or Zosky may turn out to be OK. 

  I heard a report on the radio that Gillick said that he was not shopping
for a shortstop because as far as he was concerned, the job belonged to
Zosky.

  It was also reported that the Jays are after Jeff Parret (sp?) of the
Athletics.

-- 
Colin McFadyen -- Carleton U. Computing and Communications Services
Ottawa, Ontario, CANADA K1S 5B6                  
colinm@ccs.carleton.ca

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball