From: jebright@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu (James R Ebright)
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Subject: Re: NT Destined to Succeed??
Date: 4 Jan 93 20:32:37 GMT
Organization: The Ohio State University

In article <19189@mindlink.bc.ca> Ian_Upright@mindlink.bc.ca (Ian Upright) writes:
>
>Why do I now think that OS/2 will definitely dominate the desktops in the
>future, and why NT won't be the *most* popular platform on PC's in general?

(small deletion)
>
>Here's why:
>
>Why do so called UNIX OS's (in our terms) fail?  Because lack of a user
>base..  And because the user base is so low, the prices must be higher.

Well, there may be more people using OS/2 than DR-DOS,  but it is the
microSoft folks who have the user base.

(deletion)
>
>Windows NT will not be compatable, and will even have worse compatabilities
>than OS/2, thus driving the NT user base down even more..
>

The history of software is that significant advances are 'not compatable'
with old software.  Incompatabilities have been the norm and the industry
has survived.  

(Indeed, IBM's mainframe business might be super prospering today if FS
(Future Systems) had been brought to market in the 70's {FS was an AS400 type
operating system}.  It was not because the salesmen said the customers didn't
want something incompatable with OS/360.  So IBM mgmt opted for gradualism [MVS]
instead of incompatability.)

>There is a lot of anti-Microsoft love/hate relationships going around with
>Microsoft.  People are starting to see Microsoft as a company that looks
>out only for itself, and not for it's users..  There is a LOT of
>anti-windows feelings out there..   Many people hate windows, but only use
>it because there really wasn't a better alternative..  Now there is..
>Thus driving the Windows and the NT user base down even more..
>

Well, in the 60's and much of the 70's IBM was the most hated computer
vendor in the country.  And people like Burroughs made much much much better
computers that anyone who tried really liked a lot better.  But that didn't
make Burroughs successful.

>There is a lot of OS/2 advocacy out there..  If someone turned all those
>OS/2 advocacy quotes into bumper stickers, I'm sure they'd sell pretty
>fast..  Thus driving the NT user base down even more..
>

And there are a lot of loony f-ball fanatics here at Ohio State, but that
doesn't make OSU *win* anymore games.

(more stuff deleted)
>
>Where's OS/2 headed???  On all our desktops..  :)  Thank goodness.. relief
>from Microsoft at last..  Just think!!!   Imagine a popular OS without
>any Microsoft APPS!!!  Doesn't that sound nice??  I wonder if Microsoft
>will be bankrupt by the end of the 90's?  I wonder if Microsoft has started
>developing OS/2 apps like the said they would..  Hopefully not..  :)

My father was a programmer on an IBM 305 RAMAC; so I have followed the
industry since the 50's and have noticed the following about predictions:

1-7 years - fairly accurate - just look at what the smart people are
		doing today and extrapolate.

8-12 years - right about half the time at best - guess today on what's
		going to work tomorrow.

13-20 years - right damn little of the time - "Who would want a computer
		in their home?" - author to member of Home Brew Computer Club

Don't underestimate Dave Cutler and the rest of the NT crew.  Dave and five
others extended DEC's life 10 years.  He has done well in the past.

But I suspect technical matters will not be paramount in the _short run_.
They never have been in the past so I don't know why they should be now.

microSoft will give NT a good launch and it will pull into the lead, just like
Windoze.  

OS/2 will stay around.  Hay, the Amiga is still here!  But will it eventually
pull ahead?  IMHO, no way unless two factors occur.

	1) IBM has to decide to say in the low end computer business.
	(They will never be what they once were, but they can still be
	a lot more successful than microSoft.)

and 	2) IBM has to make OS/2 both less costly and more productive than NT.
	(They are playing catch-up!)

BTW, that Scholar's Academic Workstation idea recently kicked around on the
net recently looks like a good start if anyone in IBM marketing is listening.
-- 
		Jim Ebright (james.ebright@osu.edu) 
    "Spam, eggs, sausage and spam - that's not got much spam in it."
    Fax # 614-785-0292.  Tel # 614-785-0282.  Beeper # 614-646-1093
     >>>    All kids can be educated -- even yours and mine.    <<<
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