From: An-Ly Yao <anlyyao@igc.apc.org>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.taiwan
Date: 01 Sep 92 08:44 PDT
Subject: Taiwan, avoid the trap!
Nf-ID: #N:cdp:1474900019:000:4312
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!anlyyao    Sep  1 08:44:00 1992


re: ROC/ROK  relations
 
The more I follow the news and some messages in soc.culture.korea and
soc.culture.taiwan, the more it seems clear to me, that
 
	- The reasons of ROK's change of ties from ROC to PRC
	  are understood in Korea and to some extent also in Taiwan.
	- The timing is perceived as "hurriedly" or "surprising" in the
	  ROC and partially in comments from ROK. Many people in ROC feel
	  "insulted" and "betrayed".
 
The main reason for Korea's need to develop official ties to PRC is
security and stability on the Korean peninsula. Secondly expectations
exist, that the step would be beneficial for the ecomomies for the
ROK and the PRC. A reunification without China's involvement is not
possible.
 
The reason for ROC's grudge against ROK mainly is the procedure, not
so much ROK's step itself, as the ROK's decision to develop official
ties to PRC was expected in Taiwan. Taiwan also received hints from ROK,
however, before switching ties an envoy was expected. That was the
procedure used by other "friendly" partners of the ROC, as France, Japan
and the USA. (The USA even assisted the ROC in keeping the embassy.)
 
When the ROC learned, that concrete measures where pending, the ROC
embassy in Seoul spread the news about an agreement between ROK and PRC.
Then ROK and PRC denied the reports, later they denied only the part
concerning an 2 billion dollar deal between ROC and PRC.
 
The next news about the switch of ties came from KBS, before the official
announcement of the ROK government.
 
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There are mutual relations between ROC and ROK which are beneficial for
the ROK (i.e. Trade, good air routes, at last useable as alternatives in
bargaining). They did not have a priority high enough, to keep official
relations to the ROC stable, but on the other hand they still provide some
reason to the ROK not to make things worse, as they would become after
switching ties anyway.

In short: The ROK had/has no interest in insulting the ROC.
 
But it happened. There may be - at minimum - 2 reasons:
	- a fumble (committed by ROK and/or ROC)
	- one (or more) participant(s) at the corners of the square PRC,
	  North-Korea, South-Korea, Taiwan or a third party was (or where)
	  interested in hurting the relations between ROC and ROK.
 
Also both is possible  -  or has anybody something else to offer? For example:
am I wrong, did the ROK try to provoke Taiwan to reduce business in Korea?
That would weaken Taiwan's position in the PRC as competitor to Korea. But I
doubt, that such a strategy would provide Korea with any significant and
reliable edge over Taiwan.
 
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
Taiwan now has enough reason to return back to business   a s   u s u a l
with South-Korea as - especially in the last years - the business was  n o t
usual: Taiwan had to offer incentives to the ROK to keep the official ties.
Things actually could get easier and more pragmatic now. So who would benefit
from interfering in the trade between ROC and ROK, who would benefit from
e politically and economically weakened Taiwan?
 
I f  my assumption is true, that there are no intentions of ROK (and from
ROC anyway) to inflict more damage to Taiwan's position than "necessary",
then reducing the economic and cultural exchanges between Taiwan would be
a trap, which should be avoided by Taiwan. Keep the business between ROC
and ROK running as pragmatically but intensive as possible then would be the
best strategy to deal with sabotage by not displaying an intended behaviour.
 
If I am wrong, then smartly coming to terms with Korea anyway would not do
any harm to Taiwan, as the ROC has more experience in diplomacy-by-trade
than any other country in the world - and less to loose in Korea.
 
Of course, for Taiwan it may be tough, so often to have to face "unfairness"
and diplomatic hype. But isn't that the driving force behind Taiwan's out-
standing business performance? Also in internal politics Taiwan went through
a development (especially since 1988), which makes it impossible for demo-
cratic countries just to look the other way. Any energy wasted in pampering
one's grudge would weaken that position.
 
 
Goetz
Seoul 1992/08/31

Newsgroups: soc.culture.taiwan,soc.culture.korean