From: v_siede@pavo.concordia.ca (KALDIS, BILL)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Darrin Fletcher - 1992 NL MVP?
Date: 22 Jul 92 02:07:00 GMT
Organization: Concordia University
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

In article <1992Jul19.001745.10002@panix.com>, spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira) writes...
>In <18JUL199212565872@pavo.concordia.ca> v_siede@pavo.concordia.ca (KALDIS, BILL) writes:
> 
>>During spring training, I posted an article about Expos catcher Fletcher.  
>>I wondered if he might have a special ability to handle pitchers that saved 
>>runs for his team.  The evidence for this hypothesis was the startling 
>>difference in Philly pitchers' ERAs when throwing to Fletcher vs. throwing 
>>to Daulton/Lake (both good defensive catchers).
> 
>>As a reminder, here are the records:
> 
>>    1991 Phillies         IP    ER      ERA
>>    with Fletcher        334   110     2.96
>>    with others         1129   518     4.12
> 
>>Thus, it appeared that Fletcher saved an amazing 1.16 ER per 9 IP.  I 
>>promised to keep an eye out to see if this tendency would repeat in 1992 
>>and by what magnitude.  Here are the results through Friday, July 17th:
> 
>>    1992 Expos            IP    ER      ERA
>>    with Fletcher        235.2  69     2.64
>>    with others          574   239     3.75
> 
>>Once again, and with a different team, Fletcher saves 1.11 ER per 9 IP.  If 
>>Fletcher is projected as a full-time No. 1 catcher (85% of games - 1200 IP 
>>caught), a 1.1 ER/9 IP gap would save his team an astounding 147 runs.  As 
>>Fletcher is not a great offensive force, we can assume a replacement-level 
>>catcher would create about 20-30 more runs than Fletcher, thereby reducing 
>>the advantage to 120 runs. If this is real, it would make Fletcher an MVP, 
>>and it wouldn't even be close.  
> 
>Well, first of all, I would suggest you read Craig Wright's piece on
>Catcher ERAs in his book The Diamond Appraised a few years back.
> 
>The problem with catcher ERAs are many.  Sometimes certain catchers only
>catch certain pitchers. There's a definite sample size problem.  It's hard
>to tell if he is a lot better than average or the other catchers on his
>team are a lot worse than average. It's also been suggested that backups
>have an advantage in this respect because they catch a team's pitchers while
>warming up, etc.

Thanks for the feedback.  Let me respond to some of the points you've 
brought up:

CATCHING ONLY CERTAIN PITCHERS:
This doesn't appear to be favouring Fletcher; like Fletcher catching all of 
Martinez and Hill's games, while Carter catches Gardner and Nabholz.  In 
fact, using Craig Wright's methodology from The Diamond Appraised, you can 
normalize for mix of pitchers.  I went through the Expos boxscores and 
after adjusting for pitchers caught, Fletcher's advantage is 0.95 per 9 IP.

OTHER CATCHER'S BEING WORSE THAN AVERAGE:
Quite the opposite, it may also be that Fletcher's advantage could be even 
bigger.  Remember, the Expos other catcher is Gary Carter.  The interesting 
thing about Carter is that he is with his fourth team in four years.  This 
gives us an unusual situation of comparing Carter with many different 
pitching staffs and in competition with many catchers.  From the Stats 
books, here is the data:

   Year       Team      with Carter  with others
   1989       Mets         2.97        3.41       (Sasser, Lyons)
   1990       Giants       3.64        4.33       (Kennedy)
   1991       Dodgers      2.80        3.20       (Scioscia)

Carter himself appears to be 0.50 ER per 9 IP better than an average 
catcher.  This would mean Fletcher could actually be 1.5 - 1.6 ER per 9IP 
better than average.  I know this is unlikely, but still Fletcher's clearly 
demonstrating some kind of special skill.

OTHER EVIDENCE:
What about Fletcher's minor league record.  If he is such a great handler 
of pitching staffs, we would expect to see some evidence along his stops in 
AA and AAA.  At AA San Antonio, the team ERA went from 4.75 the year before 
Fletcher to 3.60 the year he was there and up to 4.52 the year after he 
moved on. Once again about a 1 ER per 9 IP improvement.  The AAA record is 
not as conclusive showing about 0.1 ER per 9 IP improvement over a two year 
span, although Fletcher was catching only about 65% of the games.

I am not suggesting that Fletcher is the sole reason behind a 1 run 
difference in ERA, but clearly the evidence is fairly convincing that 
Fletcher is more than an innocent bystander.  It also challenges our 
assumptions about the most valuable defensive position being shortstop 
where the difference between best and replacement level is 0.2 runs/game.  
Clearly, Fletcher is contributing somewhere about 0.5-1.0 runs per game to 
his team.

Bill Kaldis
Concordia University 
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball