From: 3011_6470@UWOVAX.UWO.CA
Subject:      Coup Rumors in Moscow (I)
Reply-To: 3011_6470@UWOVAX.UWO.CA
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1992 03:56:45 GMT
Comments: To: China-net <china-nt@uga.cc.uga.edu>

Last week, in the program "McLaughlin Group" on PBS, the host
Mr. McLaughlin put his prediction this way:

   "Brois Yeltsin will be out of power by January, 1993!"

The prediction may not be true, and we will know by January.  But
the reality in Russia is quite harsh.  The following article is
copied from "The Christian Science Monitor" without permission.
It is quite informative.


Dave Sheng.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(from "The Christian Science Monitor"  --  Wednesday, August 19, 1992)

                    Coup Rumors in Moscow

-- But this year popular discontent, not a secret cabal, threaten Yeltsin

                    By Vladimir Shlapentokh

Paradoxically, in August 1992 the signs of an impending coup are much more
visible than they were exactly one year ago, although this does not mean that
a coup is inevitable.  This time, unlike August 1991, the major threat to the
regime stems not from the nomenklatura but from the mass discontent that
conservatives hope to transform into big riots under their guidance.

After taking control in August 1991, the regime's theorists initiated a
program designed to maintain the sympathy of the people through three means -
privatization of property, the independence of Russia, and the establishment
of a new government based on democratic principles.

By privatizing state property - from residential apartments to large
industrial facilities - the regime hoped to create a large middle class
that would align itself with the new government as the benefactor and
guarantor of their new social status.

President Boris Yeltsin's privatization, however, has antagonized the
masses rather than earn their support.  Only a tiny minority of the
population has noticed any significant benefit.  The authorities also
failed to enable Russians to own even their state-controlled apartments,
not to mention production assets.  Consequently, Russians have little
faith left in the plan to transform Russia into a nation of property
owners.  Part of the problem is that Mr. Yeltsin's government lost
control over privatization to old and new bureaucrats (as well as to
criminals), who took advantage of their positions as insiders to purchase
a significant part of the means of production.

Consequently, the privatization program has left most Russians without
modification in their property status, while hyperinflation has drained
savings accounts in the past two years.  Most Russians are actually worse
off financially than they were in the past, and are extremely angry about
the wealthy life of the new bourgeoisie.

Yeltsin's attempt to use Russian independence to gain legitimization
for his regime failed even more conspicuously than did his privatization
program.  The new administration established June 12 as "The Day of
Independence", but most Russians did not take this idea seriously.
Moreover, these polls demonstrate that a growing majority of Russians
(63 percent in April and 68 percent in June) feel a strong nostalgia for
the Soviet Union.  The public has also changed its views regarding
the organizers of the coup last August; only a minority (24 percent)
still regards them as criminals.  Many Russians regard these people as
heroes who were attempting to save the Soviet Union.

Even Yeltsin's most ardent adversaries cannot deny that his regime
significantly expanded political freedoms and strengthened fledgling
democratic institutions country after the failed coup.  However,
recent developments, including the atmosphere of anarchy in the country,
the bickering between various branches of local government, the mass
corruption of the bureaucracy and its complete impunity, and the huge
increase in criminal activity are all associated with democracy in
the minds of many citizens.  As a result, many Russians are yearning
for the good old days when the authorities kept order in the country.

(to be continued)
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