From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt Bose "of Biscayzee")
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: roy NL
Date: 8 Sep 92 18:24:38 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

In article <1992Sep8.171411.18718@leland.Stanford.EDU> claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>In article <1992Sep8.151118.1557@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>
>>Why do you have this fascination with part-timers? It is a FACT that neither
>>Alou nor Sanders have nearly as much playing time as Karros. It is also a 
>>FACT that Karros plays in a much more difficult park for hitters: in fact, the
>>5-year average for SLG and HR increase is higher for Riverfront than for any
>>other park in the majors (yes, including Wrigley, Tiger Stadium, and Atlanta).
>
>Why do you have this fascination with everyday players, even if they are below
>average?  By your logic, Tony Pena (who played nearly everyday for Boston)
>would be more valuable than Chris Hoiles, who missed half of the season,
>despite the fact that Pena is almost the worst offensive catcher you can find
>in the majors this year, and that Hoiles is the best in the AL?
>

And by yours, Nelson, Scott Cooper should have won the MVP award last year.

Far be it for me to agree with MIke Fester, but here I have to say that he has 
a point.  I disagree that Karros has been a drain on the Dodger team.  Who the 
hell do you suggest?  I'll ask you this:  which is the farther dropoff:
replacing Alou with Matt Stairs or John Vanderwal, replacing Reggie Sanders with
Dave Martinez, or replacing Eric Karros with Brian Traxler or (god forbid) Todd
Benzinger?  The key flaw in your system is by assuming that average players are
available.  Last year, the average first baseman was Eddie Murray.  How eager
would teams be to trade Murray (no opinion, please; we're talking about real
teams, not to be confused with intelligent teams)?

That said, I am concerned with Karros' ability to get on base.  But I'm no less 
concerned about Reggie Sanders' fragility or Felipe Alou's ability to keep
Moises in the lineup (is Moises being platooned?  Karros would have higher stats
if he didn't bat against all righties...)

My personal opinion is that yes, Pena was more valuable to the Red Sox than
Hoiles was to the Orioles when Chris was on the DL.  Was Pena more valuable than
Tackett?  That's the question that must be answered.  By your logic, Ty Cobb
is still more valuable to the Tigers than Gary Pettis.  OK, bad example.  :)

How about calculating total RC/27, and multiplying by PA somehow?  Or games?
Yes, there are biases inherent in that measure, and I'm aware of them, but there
must be some kind of a tradeoff in terms of playing time versus production.

At what point do you trade off between a world-beating part-timer and a steady
but unspectactular regular?  Unless both sides can agree on a solution, you're
going to have fights about this, and you're both just yelling hot air.

Now, as for analysis, I look at the race like this.  I see three candidates:
Karros, Alou, and Sanders.  Now, Karros has played twice as much as Alou, with
Alou getting bonuses for about thirty points of OBP and 12 more stolen bases.

Frankly, I think the stability Karros has given the Dodgers at first (and the
fact that Benzinger sucks lava rocks) is enough to set Karros above the part
time player Alou.  Sanders' problem is similar in that while he's been a better
player when he's played, right now (AFAIK) he's got a punctured lung or some
such.  The point is, he's hurt, and he's always been hurting.  That counts 
against him.  It has to.  Still, I won't argue against him for ROY the way I
would Alou.  Alou isn't particularly special. But my vote goes to Karros, though
I admit that's mostly because I know that he will walk in his career.


-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) *  kbos@carina.unm.edu * Make outs, not walks!
Keeper of the R.S.BB FAQ, and Junior Stathead {tm} * OK, so I AM the AntiChrist.
Be kind...don't disillusion the RBI-lovers. * Net.Agent, "Doublin" David Rossing
Less widely published as Noel Steere; less likely to rampage than Gary Huckabay.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball