From: zzuo@iastate.edu (Zhiqi Zuo)
Subject: A possible trade war between China and US?
Organization: Iowa State University, Ames IA
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1992 01:57:09 GMT



Some related topics:

1. Vietnam is still facing embargo by US and its allies. But
American "popular products", like coke and pepsi, can easily be
located in its streets. Its economy develops very well
since 1988. Japan is its largest trade partner.

2. Russia was reported to have the possibility of another coup.
The scarce is still there. Many people are reported not be able to
endure the hardship in "the transition period". Yelsin is taking the 
rumor of a pending coup very seriously, and claims to be ready
for it by all means(including military means.) (source:ABC.)
He is showing optimistic poise about the worsening economy, and the end
of this year is still "the turning point" in his speech as ever before.
However, more people are becoming frustrated.
"5-10 years" is supposed to be the time for the economy to
change totally into a market one.





From: Sirdar_Khalifa <a10rjs1@cs.niu.edu>
To: nepal@cs.niu.edu
Newsgroups: niu.maillist.chinanet
Organization: Northern Illinois University
Subject: Clinton Faces Difficult Decisions on Trade with China 
Source: The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), 11/6/92
Written by: Robert Keatley, Staff Reporter of WSJ

WASHINGTON -- When Bill Clinton enters the White House and attempts to
revive the sluggish U.S. economy, he seems destined to clash with China.

Both economies could suffer, to the advantage of U.S. trade rivals in Europe
and Asia.

At issue is the contradictory mix of morality and mammon that has marked
relations between the U.S. and China since their earliest encounters. For
more than a century, Americans have trudged across China to dispense the
Bible and high-minded principles in what they called a heathen culture.
Others were driven by more secular visions of vast wealth from peddling
everything from opium to autos in a nation of boundless consumer needs.

These days the form is different but the contradiction remains. Many
Americans, including some Democratic politicians, want China's hard-line
rulers to ease off, especially on human rights issues, as the price of
continued good relations. Others, notably the U.S. business community,
contend that such pressure on Beijing would fail - and cost them money.

President Bush regularly vetoed congressional efforts to put conditions on
the China trade. Mr. Clinton seems unlikely to do the same.

"We want to use our relationship and influence to work with the Chinese for
a peaceful transition to democracy and the spread of free markets," he vowed
last month. "Our nation has a higher purpose than to coddle dictators."

If a Clinton administration demands that political prisoners be released, or
other conditions be met, in return for smooth trade relations, the Chinese
promise to say no and retaliate. "There is no doubt about it," vows Tong
Zhiguang, vice minister of foreign economic relations.

Beijing suggests it might buy the European Airbus rather than more Boeing
Co. jets, Canadian or Australian grain rather than U.S., or shut U.S.
companies out of its exploding telecommunications markets. If that
jeopardized the $34 billion U.S.-China trade, both sides would suffer.

For China, serious disputes could endanger its amazing growth rate - near
12% this year and averaging 8% a year since 1978. During that span, the
total value of goods and services produced in China has risen 250% and will
double again by the year 2000, giving China the world's third-largest
economy, the World Bank says. Exports are a driving force and the U.S. is
the main market, taking 26% of the total. China provides 60% of U.S. shoes
plus, among other things, many of its toys, textiles and simple appliances.

But China's industry consists mainly of clunky state factories that survive
by subsidy, plus small private ones that assemble imported parts for
re-export. Though their products last year helped create trade surpluses of
$16 billion with the U.S., $13 billion with the European Community and $6
billion with Japan, only 5% to 20% of the added value actually occurs inside
China. And most profits go to foreign investors, notably from Hong Kong and
Taiwan, who have global distribution links.

Losing the U.S. market would stall China's economy and create one of
Beijing's worst nightmares: jobless, disgruntled workers creating
instability in its cities. If so, Beijing is more likely to crack down than
to loosen controls, the opposite of the professed Clinton goal.

Americans, too, would lose. They would have to pay more for consumer goods
from jogging gear to hair dryers to Barbie dolls. And American exporters
could see sales dwindle even as China seeks more items like computers,
vehicles and machine tools in its drive to modernize. For example, the
French telecommunication giant, Alcatel, says China will soon surpass the
U.S. as a market for switching gear.

Yet memories linger in the U.S. of the 1989 Tiananmen shootings, and Beijing
often maltreats those who challenge the Communist Party's right to rule;
forced labor and torture are common. Thus, many lawmakers insist the U.S.
must use trade penalties to force change.

"A tougher policy toward China is appropriate," says William Reinsch, a
Senate staffer and trade specialist with ties to the Clinton camp, because
the U.S. "needs to deal with strength."

How tough Mr. Clinton will be remains unclear. He hasn't committed himself
to specifics and a Democratic Congress may be more flexible if he asks.
Indeed, much previous debate involved Bush-bashing. One theory is that
Congress will vote mild restrictions by June, when action is due about
extending most-favored-nation tariff treatment, then wait a year before
deciding whether to apply them.

Totally unacceptable, responds a Chinese official, who promises to match
any U.S. actions. If these are tough, one casualty could be Motorola Inc.
This year it hopes to sell 200,000 cellular phones in China, next year
700,000 and in five years, nine million. A trade war could derail that.

Newsgroups: soc.culture.china