From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 23 Dec 1992 06:25:13 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                22 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 357, 12/22/92
10.7 FLUX=142.1  90-AVG=138        SSN=125      BKI=1113 2111  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=2.7E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=1123 3221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=006,006,009,025,019,009,007,005   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.7   @ 1451UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.4   @ 2109UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1910UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0355UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0610UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0950UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55426NT @ 1536UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1834UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+106NT@ 2043UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 1258UT  G7-AVG=+080,+029,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 2043UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 2358UT  G6-AVG=+099,-003,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,140,135;SESC:140,140,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,015/010,010,015
    KFCST=1123 4321 1123 4321  27DAY-AP=013,009   27DAY-KP=2224 4222 2413 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7374 (S08E20) slowed in
       its growth and evolution and generated but a few C-class
       subflares. Magnetic data received today again indicate a delta
       configuration in the intermediate spots. Probably the most
       noteworthy event of the day was the disappearance of a 24
       degree-long filament in the early hours of 22 December. This
       filament was located between S20 and S35 at about mid-disk. One
       new Region was born on the disk, 7380 (S15W45).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible, pending
       further development in Region 7374.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled the next 24-36 hours.
       Effects of the disappearing filament of earlier today should
       begin very late in the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 23 dec-25 dec

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 dec-25 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Minor signal degradation over paths crossing the high
       or polar latitudes is expected on 25 December if the filament
       disappearance proves geoeffective.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7370  S09W25  048  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7372  S12E06  017  0040 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7374  S08E21  002  0320 DAO  10  029 BETA-DELTA
7375  N14W81  104  0100 DSO  09  004 BETA
7376  N17E32  351  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7378  N12E40  343  0080 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7379  S11E68  315  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7380  S16W46  069  0020 CRO  03  002 BETA
7366  S10W86  109                    PLAGE
7368  S33W65  088                    PLAGE
7369  S07W35  058                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 DECEMBER TO 25 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1124 1124 1124                          170



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
21/2002             22/1211     S20W07     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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