From: dzk@cs.brown.edu (Danny Keren)
Subject: Re: Fair Swap (1967 war again)
Organization: Brown University Department of Computer Science
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 1992 18:19:43 GMT

<25500@castle.ed.ac.uk> egpv29@castle.ed.ac.uk (JHenderson) writes:
#<1992Sep3.133246.10319@cs.brown.edu> dzk@cs.brown.edu (Danny Keren) writes:
##
##Neither do I, because it is clear that the sole responsibility to the
##`67 war lies with the Soviet Union, Egypt, Syria and Jordan.
#
#That's odd - I don't remember seeing these countries invading Egypt.

Sorry to sound like the Mutlu, but let me refresh your memory. The
following is taken from Sadat's book, ""In search of identity" p. 172.

"Nasser said 'now, with our concentrations in Sinai, the chances of war are
 fifty-fifty. But if we close the strait, war will be one hundred percent
 certainty' Then, turning to Amer, he asked 'are the armed forces ready,
 Abdel Hakim?' Amer pointed to his neck and said 'on my neck be it, boss!
 Everything's in tip-top shape'"

As I see it, this is how things went:

1) Nasser wants war.

2) Nasser knows that the concentrations of massive forces in the Sinai
   is not enough to force a war on Israel - this was the case in 1960,
   and no war started. He is aware of the danger, but estimates it at
   "fifty-fifty" chance.

[Nasser supposedly moved the forces into Sinai to deter Israel from
 attacking Syria. As admitted by Sadat later and by the Jordanians,
 the Russian reports that Israel is grouping forces in order to invade
 Syria is a complete fabrication]

3) Nasser evaluates that the closure of the straits will make war a
   certainty. This is not surprising: blocking 90% of Israel's oil
   and other strategic cargo, combined with other acts of aggression,
   is bound to bring war. This opinion is shared by Sadat and leading
   political analyst Heickal.

4) Knowing war will result, Nasser asks the commander of the armed forces
   if his army is ready for it. The answer is a definite yes.

5) All the other cabinet ministers have complete confidence in their
   army and, except for one, encourage Nasser to go to war.

6) A few days later, Nasser closes the straits. To pour more oil on the
   fire, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world launch a barbaric
   propaganda campaign,(Appendix 1) promising to exterminate Israel. The Arab
   world is thrown into a war hysteria (Appendix 2).

7) Egypt signs a defense pact with Syria and Jordan. This means that
   any border clash with Syria gives Egypt an excuse to invade Israel.

8) Large Iraqi forces (infantry brigades and 300-400 tanks) start
   moving towards Israel, in a place where its width is 12 miles. At
   the same time, Iraq's president Aref declares that the Arabs are
   going to "wipe Israel of the map". (Appendix 3).


Appendix 1:
----------
a) TIME, June 2, p. 20: Damascus radio called on all Arabs to "undertake
   the liberation battle that will tear the hearts from the bodies of
   the hatefull jews and trample them in the dust".

b) TIME, June 16, p. 22: ..Presiden Nasser had welcomed Iraq to the
   Egypto-Jordanian alliance against Israel, and proclaimed: "we are so eager
   for the battle in order to force the enemy to wake from his dreams
   and meet Arab Reality face to face".

c) TIME, June 2, p. 20: "At week's end Nasser once more went to the radio
   to say that "any war with Israel will be total, and the objective
   will be to destroy Israel".

d) Skousen, "fantastic victory" p. 3: "every two hours new bulletins from
   Cairo called for a Jihad - a holy war against Israel".

e) skousen, p. 31: Syrian defense minister Hafez Assad declared "we
   shall never call for nor accept peace...we have resolved to drench
   this land with our blood, to oust you agrresors and throw you into
   the sea for good".

f) Churchill and Churchill, p. 51: In Cairo on May 29 President Nasser
   ... Speaking of the military situation, he declared that "preparations
   by the UAR and her allies for the liberation of Palestine are complete".

g) Chrchill and Churchill, p. 77, quoting the command of the day for June 3
   issued by Egyptian Commander in chief General Mortagi to the soldiers
   in Sinai: "The results of this unique moment are of historic importance
   for our Arab nation and for the holy war through which you will restore
   the rights of the Arabs which have been stolen in Palestine and reconquer
   the plundered soil of Palestine".

h) Churchill and Churchill, p. 52, quoting Shkairy (PLO chief) that "the
   surviving Jews would be helped to return to their native countries, but
   my estimation is that none will survive".

i) On May 31, the President of Iraq, Abdel Rahman Aref, stated:

   "The existence of Israel is an error which must be
   rectified.  This is our opportunity to wipe out the
   ignominy which has been with us since 1948. our goal
   is clear--to wipe Israel off the map."

Appendix 2
----------
"
..Syrian, Egyptian and Arab propaganda blared over the radio their
message of war, vengence and victory and were listened to by millions
of Arabs in the middle east. They claimed that the hour of reckoning
was at hand and that the Israelis would receive the retribution they
richly desereved. *This produced a massive response in favor of
war amongst the Arabs of Jordan...the pressure of public opinion
in favour of war was so strong that king Hussein knew that if he
failed to participate he ran the risk of civil war. King Hussein's
commanders warned him that they could not hold their men in check any longer
           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
and that there would be a serious crisis if Jordan failed to act.
"

Jordanian journalist Samir Mutawi, summerizing from interviews
with king Hussein, major general Salim, field marshal Majali,
Lt general Haditha and Ben Shaker, commander in chief of the
Jordanian army.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
There was in the country and all over the Arab world what you
might call a mass euphoria about the possibility of war and that
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
this was something we have been waiting for a long time - we
were going to defeat Israel once and for all.
"

As told to Jordanian journalist Samir Mutawi in an 1983 interview
by Zaid Rifai, a senior aid to king Hussein, and two times
Jordanian prime minister.

Appendix 3:
----------
        Israel will not be able to bear the burden of mobilization
        for a long time.  Mobilization has already brought total
        paralysis of the Israel economy.  In the meantime, two
        important developments have taken place in the Arab arena:
        Jordan has signed a defense agreement with Egypt; Iraq has
        decided to participate in the battle with great force,
        from Jordan's territory.

Egyptian Field Marshal Abdel Hakim Amer,
        Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, June 2, 1967:


-Danny Keren.


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