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Date:         Wed, 2 Sep 1992 14:55:51 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Georgia, Poland, Germany, China and ..., (#766)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.BITNET, jwales@iubvm.BITNET, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com,
              christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
              76701.103@compuserve.com

This may be a somewhat truncated post, as my lungs are running
completely amok today, but there are a FEW things I'd like to talk
about.

Russia-

Yesterday, on RUSSIA (and I believe RFE/RL, which I've not read yet),
it was reported that the ruble had reached 210.5 rubles to the dollar
officially, a leap of roughly 20% in devaluation in about three
weeks.

Yesterday, on NPR, with frankly a scant amount of details, it was
announced that the US would be buying some amount of semi-processed
or processed uranium from Russia.

Also, on yesterday, the Russians announced that they would be sending
an anti-sub ship and a tanker to the Persian Gulf, which they would
not do during the Six Weeks War.

Late last night, CNN reported that there was a plot to kill Boris
Yeltsin while he was in his "disgrace period" as state "construction
boss" during a trip he made to Tajikistan. Apparently the plot was
foiled when the KGB person in Tajikistan refused to do the deed.

Georgia-

CNN reported last night that an unsubstantiated report had Russian
troops fighting along side Abkhaz rebels against Georgian militia.
Georgia reportedly said that dire consequences might emanate from
this if the reports are true.

Poland-

BBC reported earlier today that the former Polish Prime Minister
(whose name I missed) from 1970 to 1980 and his wife were found
murdered in Warsaw today.

Czecho-Slovakia-

Alexander Dubcek, the 70 year old "Prague Spring" leader who has come
back as Parliamentary leader after the "Velvet Revolution, was
seriously injured in a car accident yesterday. He reportedly had
severe injuries to his chest and spine. On at least one list today,
it was briefly discussed that the "accident" was deliberate, an
attempt to murder Dubcek, though there has been no subsequent news
about the accident, or any substantiation of the idea that it was a
deliberate act.

Germany-

Three more incidents of anti-refugee violence was reported from
Germany on NPR yesterday. A German police superintendent in Berlin
was reported as saying that the situation will "probably get worse,"
predicting that the violence could soon reach "10 attacks a day."

Bosnia-

An agreement on UN supervision of heavy weapons held reportedly by
all sides, but apparently primarily Serbs, has supposedly been
reached in Sarajevo, with 11 points in the city (or around it, I
guess) where tanks, artillery and mortars will be placed. Last night,
the shelling was particularly heavy for a period, and it is not clear
how well this agreement will hold.

Also reported by BBC today was the postponement of a relief column to
Goradze for an undefined period because the UN cannot get "safety
guarantees" from ANY of the warring sides. Only yesterday, it had
been reported that the siege of the city had been lifted, which is
apparently not true.

Yesterday, it was reported on NPR that the water situation in
Sarajevo is becoming critical - the first cases of typhus have been
found, and it was predicted yesterday that "the health problem could
explode in the next ten days."

NPR reported yesterday that Germany had taken in 200,000 Bosnian
refugees. Austria and Hungary 40,000 each, while Britain and France
have taken in only 2,000 each. That same report suggested that
200,000 to 300,000 people in Bosnia are "at high risk of death over
this coming winter," because of poor health conditions, lousy food
supplies, poor medical services, and out and out starvation. Also,
the report stated that in Bosnia 200 homes per day were being
destroyed, in addition to apartment buildings, commercial properties,
museums, and other public buildings.

China-

Yesterday a leading dissident of the Tiananmen Square period who had
fled China and recently returned was arrested. Shen Tong had returned
on the basis of assurances from the Chinese Justice Ministry that he
would not be arrested, but upon the attempt to have a press
conference to announce the formation of a new human rights group in
China, he was taken into custody.


The discussion about Bosnia versus Iraq on POLITICS, wherein there
has been some decrying (again) about the lack of world interest in
Bosnia because Bosnias has no oil while Iraq does. I tend to believe
that this is only partially true, thereby agreeing with my friend on
that list, Liese, who sees this analysis as too simplistic. I think
Bosnia (or "Yugoslavia") represents a nightmare of cross-alliances
and treacheries that scares the crap out the West - who knows what is
"right" to do? I've heard this lament often, and I believe it has
some validity. The situation IS confusing, is VERY complicated, and
while I agree with the poster of a few days ago about Serbia's
primary cuplability in the tragedy that has been the situations in
Croatia and Bosnia - the situation cannot be solved by dealing with
JUST Serbia, or JUST Bosnia. All the parties to the conflict have to
negotiate a peace, and THAT is the challenge to the West over
attempting to separate the warring parties by military force.
Hopefully, I can come back to this issue in a few days. VMS
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