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Date:         Sun, 15 Nov 1992 17:50:00 PDT
From:         BARKER@GONZAGA.BITNET
Subject:      Re: The Next Version of Windows for DOS

On Sun, 15 Nov 1992 Mike Lieberman wrote:

>We'll see. DOS may hang on a long time.  I suspect it will.  But my bet is
>that there is only room for one type of Windows and the 16-bit type will be
>gone for all intents and purposes in 24 months.

Mike, to really think so?  NT is not expected out until the middle of next
year and a 32-bit version of Windows for DOS even later.  Vendors like
Lotus, WordPerfect, and Borland will take some time to develop software
that really takes advantage of 32-bit processing, not to mentioned the
cost and effort for business and education to update.  The marketing
projections I have seen (in PC Week and InfoWorld) forcast a much slower
move to 32-bit apps.

Schools are now just beginning to teach courses on Windows and Windows' apps.
We did a survey of schools in America recently and found that most four year
institutions have yet to switch from DOS to Windows while community colleges
have moved much more quickly to Windows.  Interestingly enough, almost all the
schools expressed interest in adopting Lotus 1-2-3 for Windows and
WordPerfect for Windows, few planned to teach Word for Windows or Excel --
even though in overall sales the later products are beating the pants off
the former.  Maybe this trend will reverse itself if enough businesses
start using Excel and Word?  Schools, especially four year ones, tend to
be followers not leaders. Teacher hate new preps.

>There will be some interim 16-bit releases because of the time it's taking
>to get NT out and the question may arise (it did with us out here) why
>bother with a 32-bit DOS version?  The issue of DOS compatibility has been
>the main bugaboo and I suspect that it isn't worth the effort to support a
>DOS version that multi-threads.  The reality is that Windows doesn't run
>worth a damn on anything less than a 386dx right now.  That means that
>dropping the 16-bit code completely in a couple of years won't have much
>real impact on the market.  Just as the dropping of real mode in 3.1
>didn't cause much of even a ripple. The issue for all interim releases is
>likely to be to create a strong native network personality to the basic
>windows package.  That is likely the goal for DOS as well.  With Novell
>creating network services built into DR-DOS, MS has no choice but to
>compete.  OLE will work well on multi-threading 50MZ and greater 486's.
>Everything else will be too slow.

So as I read it, you think the DOS version of Windows (whether it remains
16-bit or becomes 32-bit capable) will die shortly and be replaced by NT?
Even at the vastly reduced cost of hardware, I hardly seeing that
happening in the business world any sooner than the later part of this
decade and for schools the time frame is pushed several years out.  Having
published 5 textbooks on Windows and Windows' apps (my "Working with
Windows 3.1" from boyd & fraser is the most popular Windows textbook on
the market), I can tell you that schools are painfully slow to change, or
I'd be writing you from Hawaii <grin>.

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| Don Barker                             ________      |
| Gonzaga University                    |        |\    |
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