From: John.W.Lamperti@Dartmouth.EDU
Subject: REVIEW of 'Secret Fallout'
Followup-To: alt.activism.d
Originator: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu
Organization: ?
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 1992 23:42:40 GMT

Recently a participant in this bulletin board has begun posting, chapter by
chapter, the text of a book on the effects of low-level radiation which was
published roughly a decade ago.  As it happens, I reviewed that book for the
(late) peace movement magazine WIN.  Some readers of ACTIV-L and map, whether
or not they read the book itself, may find the review of interest.  --  J.L.


SECRET FALLOUT: LOW-LEVEL RADIATION FROM HIROSHIMA TO THREE MILE ISLAND  
  by Ernest Sternglass


Reviewed by John Lamperti


This is a deeply disturbing book.  If Sternglass is even halfway correct in
the conclusions he presents here, the damage already done to the human race
by nuclear technology is far greater than I would have thought possible. 
Most of us know that a major radiation release from a nuclear power plant
could be a disaster and an all-out nuclear war would mean total devastation
and suffering, but Sternglass implies that even without these catastrophes,
humankind may already be working toward self-destruction through radioactive
poisoning.

The first edition of this book was published in 1972 under the title
"Low-Level Radiation"; it was devoted mostly to the effects of fallout from
nuclear weapons testing.  The material in that edition makes up the beginning
of "Secret Fallout."  There Sternglass gave his reasons for believing that
fallout had already had a major impact on worldwide public health.  He
concluded that during the 15 years from 1951 to 1966, "the excess numbers of
fetal deaths, spontaneous abortions and stillbirths must have reached
anywhere from two to three million in the United States alone.''  Here
''excess'' means deaths beyond those which would have occurred if previous
patterns of declining infant mortality had not been interrupted by the sudden
impact of new factors.  Sternglass feels there is little doubt what those
factors were: "The conclusion was inescapable.... Only radioactive fallout
acting mainly on the early embryo could explain these facts."

Infants and embryos were not the only victims; elderly people also
experienced increases in mortality.  In certain areas, overall death rates
actually rose after years of steady decline.  Sternglass found that
''Statistics from all over the world kept indicating that radiation was the
dominant factor in these mortality trends.''  And the fallout "released into
the atmosphere in quantities equivalent to tens of millions of pounds of
radium'' was responsible for the deteriorating health conditions of the very
young and the elderly.

The evidence for these shocking conclusions is indirect and statistical. 
Sternglass studied many indicators of public health, and observed changes in
preexisting trends over time and from place and place.  He also assembled
information on radiation exposure from fallout and nuclear facilities, often
encountering much difficulty in getting the facts from public health
officials and other "public servants."  Putting together changes in health
patterns with the times and places of known radiation exposure, Sternglass
reached his estimates of the health costs of nuclear technology.  They are
very high costs indeed.

In "Secret Fallout," Sternglass continues his study of nuclear epidemiology. 
Since 1970 he has focused mostly on the nuclear power industry, and his new
findings are not any more reassuring than his earlier ones.  He examines the
Three Mile Island (TMI) accident and comes to conclusions very different from
those of government and industry bodies.  The Kemeny Commission appointed by
President Carter to study the accident, for example, stated that "there will
be no detectable additional cases of cancer" and that  "The major health
effect of the accident appears to have been the _mental_ health of the
people" (emphasis added).  Sternglass, on the other hand, found in the vital
statistics of Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York evidence of well over 100
infant deaths attributable to the accident.  His analysis also indicates that
these deaths represent only a small fraction of the ultimate health cost of
TMI.

The most striking thing to me in the new chapters of the book is the
conjecture that radiation exposures have caused the nationwide drop in the
scholastic aptitude scores of high school students.  The argument is that if
low-level radiation causes fetal deaths in substantial numbers, it must cause
even more cases of non-fatal damage---too slight to be observed as specific
birth defects, but subtly degrading the intellectual and physical
capabilities of the affected children.  While this idea at first seemed to me
implausible,  Sternglass gives some persuasive supporting evidence.  If true,
it could be the worst nuclear side effect of all.  In the author's words, "It
would be the steady decline in the ability to read and reason and not so much
the rising cancer rates in old age that would be the real seed for the
self-destruction of a modern technological society."

All this is frightening stuff.  If only half of it is true, even nuclear
enthusiasts would have to see that the whole enterprise, including the
''peaceful atom,'' is directly antithetical to the survival of the human
race.  Small wonder, then, that Sternglass' work is unpopular in industry and
government circles!  There is no doubt in my mind that some (not all)
government and industry figures have deliberately sought to confuse or
mislead the public in order to advance nuclear interests.  In particular,
Sternglass and other scientists who have been nuclear critics have been
subject to much unfair treatment, including loss of jobs and research grants,
prejudiced rejection of their scientific articles and personal slander. 
Admitting this, however, does not prove the critics' case.

To what extent must we believe Sternglass' conclusions?  Some caution is
definitely in order.  The range of differing views of this scientific
question put forward by well-qualified people (of whom Sternglass himself,
Professor of Radiology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical School, is
definitely one) is astonishing.  Even among dissenters from government and
industry nuclear policies Sternglass' conclusions are radical.  His critics
have included people generally opposed to nuclear power and weapons, and who
share a deep concern for the dangers of radiation and the misuse of
technology.

I hope that concerned people will read this book.  It is clear and
nontechnical, and it gives a good idea of the methods by which Sternglass has
reached his alarming conclusions, while not burdening the reader with very
much data or analytical detail.

But I also urge readers to remember that the book is not a dispassionate
assessment of pros and cons---it intends to make a case.  We are told some of
what the author found; we are not told all that he did not find.  We learn
when the figures look significant, but there may be other figures, or other
ways of evaluating them, which point in a different direction.  There is a
great deal of scientific literature on these questions, and wide, honest
disagreement among experts. It is not easy for a non-specialist such as
myself to form a clear understanding of what is, and what is not, really
known.

"Secret Fallout" has an introduction by George Wald, who expresses this
uncertainty beautifully.  "Statistics," says Wald, "are highly individual. 
Sternglass has an exuberant way with them.  At times in this book I had the
feeling he was going a little far.  But then I never could be sure...  that
it was _too_ far."  Nor am I.  And while we may feel that Sternglass' case is
not proved, neither are the various opposite claims that past radiation doses
to the general public have had negligible effects.  Extremely important
questions have been raised in this book.  Until they.are answered honestly
and satisfactorily, concern for the human future demands extreme caution and
care---nearly the opposite of the history of nuclear development this far.


     from  WIN  magazine, May 15, 1982

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