Newsgroups: rec.games.board
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1992 04:32:32 -0500 
From: Erik Lauer <el0g+@andrew.cmu.edu>
Subject: Re: A&A - I think I found it!!!!
	<1992Dec12.223920.1@vax.sonoma.edu>

>Gheezhus!
>Lessee...
>I ran a program(thanks, JOSH!)that simulates combat accurately.
>
>results:
>17i in Russia, no flak hit:(all results +-2%, Mutual kill is considered
a "win"
>for my purposes)  76% I win
>17, 1 hit(avg) 52%
>18, N:51
>18, 1:35
>19, N:32
>19, 1:30
>
>There.  The results do not lie.  For you as Russia to keep me from
pasting you,
>you HAVE to put 18i or more in Karelia.
>Problem is:  I then coast into Caucasus, and revert to my original plan.

Yes, but the whole time I was saying that Russia puts 19inf, 3 tanks, 2
planes in Karelia.  The results show that I was correct in thinking that
Germany does not take most of the time (if you count mutual as a win,
remember this leave Britain free to use its airforce to wipe out your
fleet, land the fighters in Karelia, and Russia builds there too (moving
the AA gun out since you have no planes).

>IF Russia figures that I will go defensive, it is not uncommon for them to buy
>ONE tank or possibly two.
>The odds for me taking it with a total of 21A+I is fairly good.  At the very
>LEAST, I will fry them down to about 1 fighter or two.
>So, they have a choice: buy a tank, and be forced to leave 1piece in Caucasus,
>OR forget about attacking me, and have me spread out.
>Their buying *ONE* tank reduces them to placing 7 units, so at MOST 18 units
>could be placed, leaving Caucasus OPEN.(BADDDD option)
>So, 17 units if they buy a tank.
>(this is where I got the 17 figure, btw)

Well OK I guess it is not uncommon for you to play bad allied players
then.  Building tanks makes it more likely that Germany will take
Karelia the first turn.  The 4 tanks and 2 fighters are enough to back
up their inf for now.

>If they buy two tanks, assuming I will do my first plan, then I can turn them
>into bean-dip(:) )

Exactly.  Why would they do this?

>Seems like a good plan, as they loose ground either way.
>plan 1:send 6 or more pieces into each area.  Transport 2i into Norway
as well,
>IF I wish(not too important, though).  Wait for their attack.
>plan 2:send it all into Karelia

Plan 1:  Which 6 units go to the caucuses?  Unless you transport there
(is that what you do with it the first turn?)  3 of the units are tanks
waiting for Russian counter attack.  If you tell me which units are
where, I could tell you what I think Russians should attack where.  I
doubt the Russians will be attacking Norway the second turn anyway (they
should wait for the allies to crush it while the Russians fight the
other units).

>IF they have 20 2's in Karelai or less, fry it.
>IF they have more, use plan one
>simple, and effective.
>
>They can't tell what I will do, and so, they stand to loose unless they guess
>EXACTLY right, and can read my mind.

Sure.  I am saying that as the Russians I would have 22 2's, and 2 4's
there + 1 tank in Russia.  What do you put where?

>About the UK taking it back, GET REAL.
>The armor in range HAVE to go to India to save it, or you can kiss Asia
>goodbye.
>NOTHING else can reach, unless they want to blow their attack on their first
>turn in asia by sending the fighter.
>SEND that one fighter to me!  I enjoy 1-2 I vs that fighter and infantry!
>looks like the UK has a NASTY choice to make... >:)         
>I kill ONE piece, and they choose to loose the I or the F.  No I=no territory
>taken back! No F=India is toast! Send it all, and loose India anyway!

In your previous plan you stated you where attacking Caucuses with 1
armor and a bb, where did the 2 inf come from? 1 fighter and an inf vs.
1 2 probably don't lose anything.  If the Germans threw everything into
Karelia and did not take it, I would lose the fighter if it causes me to
take.  I immediately recoup 3$ of the 9 difference, keep Germany from
having an immediate threat on Russia (allowing far more units to be
placed in Karelia).  Plus, if Germany sends everything to Karelia again,
I might just hold this place from them.

>Joe
>P.S. the "dice of Joe" do not exist.  YOU try putting 19i in Karelia and
>see how well you are off when I send 6-8 into Caucasus and fortify myself
>everywhere else!

OK, just tell me what you put where, and I will tell you where the
Russians attack and what they use.  I am sure that last time you said
there was not a good way for the Russians to counterattack.  None of the
Russian plans you mentioned worked, but mine crushed the German units,
at favorable attrition and bonus production.  I am dubius of your new
plan, I would think that 8 units in Caucasus means German tanks get
crushed.  If you are sending 8 units there anyway (including a fair
number of tanks), the Russian's leaving 3 units instead of 1 means the
Russians lose 2 more units, and maybe kill 1 German unit in return. 
This seems to hurt the Russians.

>My plan hurts Russia very badly, and has a fair chance of killing their
>fighters, which NEVER get replaced.  Without those fighters, EVEN if the UK
>sends in theirs, turn two is a pushover(10i,2f vs 6i,8a).  I stand to wipe
>out the allied air-force at the worst.
>turn 3 is even worse, with 7-8 a coming in.

As far as I can see your plan is to not attack Russia if they stack up
in Karelia (I have never seen the Russians do anything else when they
can not attack the first turn).  So I don't think your plan has any
chance of whipping out the Russian fighters the first turn.

>Killing those fighters, and forcing the UK to send in ITS fighters is
>well worth the risk fi there is 18i in Karelia.  I stand to loose, but not
>by much.  I should at least take out everything BUT those fighters.
>
>But, this is not new to many players.  WHAT IS NEW is having Japan play
>"clean-up" for me, and keep Russia from reinforcing itself(or the UK)from
>the East.  I have seen games where Russia guesses wrong, and dies by turn 3 or
>4!  IF they guess right, they still(!) loose badly, and are due to loose from 
>Japan two turns earlier(round 6 or 7).
>Looks like Germany HAS delayed the Allies long enough!
>:)

Yes but you now say you won't attack.  Your previous plan left one unit
in the Caucuses, which the British just take back so the Japanese are
unable to help you.  I have seen games where Russia rolls horribly and
dies on turn 2, I do not see much guessing  the game(other than guessing
how the dice will be rolled).  Is there much guessing in chess (other
than what hand hold the white pawn)?


Erik
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