From: pdunn@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu (Patrick L Dunn)
Subject: I-AA Report for Nov. 21 (3/3)  Big Games and Predictions:
Organization: The Ohio State University
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1992 03:33:26 GMT


It's crunch time in I-AA.  Several teams find themselves on the playoff bubble
in the final week of competition before the playoffs (except for the MEAC and
SWAC).  And, this week could turn out to be very interesting.  Four of six
automatic berths are still up for grabs.  And, look for some significant
changes from the final I-AA poll to the playoff seedings: of the 21 teams in
this week's poll, only two play teams with non-losing records; six top 20
teams play each other.

Big games:

20t Georgia Southern at 7t Youngstown St.:  Remeber a few years ago when
Georgia Southern was the Notre Dame of I-AA?  No more--they missed the playoffs
last year, lost the right to host the nat'l championship, and are 7-3 against a
schedule of teams that includes five non-division I schools.  Youngstown is the
defending nat'l champ; they too have played a pretty weak schedule and have
lost games to James Madision and Northeastern.  Ga. So. is smarting from a home
loss to the Penguins last year which knocked them out of the playoffs, and that
could provide a lot of motivation.  Game could go either way; my feeling is
that Youngstown will win in a squeaker.  Scratch Ga. So., and give Y-town a
higher seeding than they deserve.

13. William and Mary at 19 Richmond: Oldest rivalry in the south.  Two teams
which like to throw the ball; could be a high scoring affair.  W&M is not going
to the playoffs, deciding instead to go to Japan and play a money game.
Richmond ahs a lot more to play for, has this game at home, and all the
intangibles have to point their way.  W&M is another overrated team; the
toughest I-AA school they have played this year is 4-7 James Madison, and they
lost to them.  Richmond wins handily--put 'em in the dance.

16. Western Carolina at 18 Appalachian St: Huge game in the Southern
Conference.  If Western wins, it gets at least a share of the conference crown
(but not the automatic bid, unless the Citadel loses to Furman).  Two Carolina
Teams in the Smokies, slugging it out in Kidd-Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC (a
beautiful setting) with the winner probably getting a bid to "December
madness."  Gut feeling here is that Appy has a bit more size, strength and
experience; they get a bid this year by beating Western.  But watch out for the
Catamounts next year, I-AA fans.

Other games, by conference:

Big Sky: If #5 Idaho beats Boise St., they get the automatic bid; if not, it
goes to 14 Eastern Washington, whose season is completed and is sitting around
waiting.  One of a couple of big upsets this week will be Boise St. over Idaho.
 Idaho gets in with an at-large berth; EWU gets the conference title and the
automatic bid.

Gateway: #3 Northern Iowa must beat SW Missouri to get the automatic bid.  SW
Missouri must win to get in the playoffs.  They will not.  Northern Iowa will
win big, as they did over W. Illinois last week.  I still believe that WIU will
get a bid, probably being the 16th seed, and may be in Charleston, SC or Monroe
Louisina next week.

Ohio Valley: Believe it or not, if Tennessee Tech beats Middle Tennessee,
therecould be a three-way tie for the conference title, and I am not sure how
the league will decide the automatic bid.  This is providing that Eastern
Kentucky beats Morehead St.  Don't worry too much: Middle Tennessee wins, gets
the automatic bid; E. Ky wins and gets an at-large bid--probably playing in
lovely Huntigton West Virginia next weekend.

Southern: There is the strange possibility of a five-way tie for the conference
championship, if Furman beats the Citadel, Appy beats Western Carolina, and
marshall beats East Tennessee St.  Marshall should win; Appy will also win, I
think.  Furman could concievably beat the Citadel; if that happens, the bid is
decided by lot, and Furman could be in the playoffs as the SoCon rep.  Believe
it or not, I think that Furman WILL win; Marshall, Appy, the Citadel, Western
Carolina, and Furman all tie for the conference title.  Marshall and the
Citadel are shoe-ins for the playoffs, but who knows who might get the
automatic bid if this wierd scenario comes to pass?  Three SoCon teams in the
playoffs this year regardless of what happens.

Southland; NE Louisiana has the title and automatic bid already.  They should
beat N. Texas St., but who knows? With the title, the bid, and a home game
already awarded to NE La, could the Mean Green Eagles sneak up on the Indians?
McNeese St. is another possibel playoff contended, but they must beat Weber St.
of the Big Sky to stay off of the bubble.  I am calling that game a toss-up.
Should McNeese lose, look for Sam Houston St. to sneak into the picture if they
beat SW Texas St.

Yankee: Delaware has the automatic bid, and will finish up strong against
Towson St.  Villanova hosts a resurgent Maine squad, and could be upset;
although with a #7 ranking this week I would assume they are in regardless.
Richmond plays W&M (see above).  The other Yankee hopeful, Massachusetts, must
travel to New Hampshire.  In another big upset, UMass loses and is out of the
playoff picture.  Three teams from the Yankee are in.

Independents: Samford and Central Florida is a big game--if UCF wins, they
could sneak into the playoffs.  Samford is probably in regardless.  I don't
think that Samford will slip up at this point in the season though, and look
for them to finish strong at home.  Samford in the playoffs; UCF, a team that
could have went a long way this year without injuries, is out.

AND FINALLY, in the last regular season I-AA post of the year (don't worry,
I'll be here for the playoffs;-)--Two quick predictions for those who long for
the flying wedge, suspenders on the uniforms to pull the ball carrier along,
and optional headgear:

Harvard beats Yale, 24-14
Lafayette over Lehigh, 27-7

(BTW, this has been a blast).

PDunn
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college