From: reiher@ficus.cs.ucla.edu (Peter Reiher)
Subject: Re: "Bram Stoker's Dracula" hits big, first weekend
Organization: UCLA Computer Science Department
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 92 18:36:21 GMT

In article <mattm-171192140015@mcmelmon.apple.com> mattm@apple.com (Matthew Melmon) writes:
>In article <1992Nov17.164206.22179@cs.ucla.edu>, reiher@ficus.cs.ucla.edu
>(Peter Reiher) wrote:
>
>> Based on the opinions people have been expressing here and elsewhere,
>> I suspect that "Bram Stoker's Dracula" is going to have a tremendous
>> dropoff this coming weekend.  
>
>You have not read the comments here very well, then.  It is very
>significant that women have all reported liking the film.  As
>David Selznick said:  woman are the market.  

Actually, I have read the comments here, including the ones claiming
that women all liked it, and a few from women saying, "well, *I've* got
a Y chromosome and *I* didn't like it".  Selznick was right, in his
day, but that's not true, at the moment.  To a first order approximation,
the market is young men.  There are indications that there's another
market out there waiting to be tapped, a market made up more of women,
but that's not where Hollywood has been getting its money, in the past
decade or two.  The unexpected success of films like "Fried Green Tomatoes"
is being heralded as an indication that pictures made for women can make
lots of money.  ("Thelma & Louise" was supposed to be the picture to show
that, but it got more good reviews and awards than it did viewers, especially
outside the big cities.)

Someone else mentioned that "Dracula" would ultimately be a failure, like
"Batman Returns".  Most studios would kill for a failure like "Batman
Returns".  While it did not nearly approximate the success of "Batman",
it made Warner Bros. a very nice chunk of money.

>Even if that segment didn't
>get what it wanted, the movie still stands a good chance of topping
>that ultimate teenage-boy-bloodfest - T2 - on the strength of
>female attendance alone.  And in foreign release, its appeal will
>probably be even higher (I suspect it will blast records right and
>left in Europe and Japan).

There is no chance whatsoever, in my opinion, of "Bram Stoker's Dracula"
making more money than "Terminator 2".  When that film came out,very
few of the normal moviegoers expressed real disappointment with it,
while at least half of those posting here who have seen "Bram Stoker's 
Dracula" have expressed outright dislike of it, and relative few have
expressed the kind of total support "Terminator 2" evoked in most of its 
audience.  Coppola's movie may very well be stronger in Europe and Japan,
but it would have to go a long way to be stronger in those territories
than Cameron's movie was.  Hits like "Terminator 2", "Batman", and
"Home Alone" are made off repeat business, and, in the past, young men
and children have proven to be those most likely to see a film several
times.  Those aren't the groups expressing the most support for "Bram
Stoker's Dracula".

By the way, I personally am on the side of those who admire the film.
Long and hard experience has made me extremely aware of the fact that
the films I like will not always be the films that have the biggest
success.

-- 
		Peter Reiher
		reiher@wells.cs.ucla.edu

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