From: erb@netcom.com (Ebbot R. Bane)
Subject: Re: MS ready to release 32-bit Word & Excel?!?! Read on...
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1992 01:04:44 GMT

In article <1992Oct6.161408.15202@cu23.crl.aecl.ca> gutz@cc49.crl.aecl.ca writes:
>
>In article <1992Oct05.190659.24067@microsoft.com> philipla@microsoft.com (Phil Lafornara) writes:
>>In article <1992Oct5.141621.6764@cu23.crl.aecl.ca> gutz@cc49.crl.aecl.ca writes:
>>>In article <1992Oct01.185753.6638@microsoft.com> philipla@microsoft.com (Phil Lafornara) writes:
>>>>
>>>>     IBM could predict 4 million - that doesn't change the current
>>>>facts.
>>>
>>>Agreed, IBM, like Microsoft, can predict that cows will fall from the sky
>>>on Tuesday.  But the fact remains that OS/2 is selling - and probably better
>>>than MS could have guessed.
>>
>>     OS/2 is indeed selling - but neither of us has any clue how well.
>>We have some numbers from IBM, and we have some conflicting numbers
>>from Microsoft.  Who's to say which is closer to the truth?
>
>How about PC Magazine?  OS/2 has been on the top 15 for a few weeks now,
>and as I'm sure even you must be aware, PC magazine does not count
>direct sales, which certainly amounts to a substantial chunk of total.

Today I received the October 27 issue of PC Magazine.  OS/2 does not
appear in the "Top Retail Software" chart on page 31.  This is the second
issue in a row with OS/2 as a no-show.  So far, all the "objective" sales
figures I have seen are consistant with a huge spike of OS/2 *shipments* 
peaking around mid-July.  This is probably due to IBM "filling the channel"
in one spasmodic burst of shipping crates of OS/2 out to those resellers
gullable enough to trust IBMs sales projections.

Ok, so OS/2 is a flop.  But will NT succeeed?  Yes, for one reason: Win32s.

The October release of NT (Yes, it's finally a *real* BETA.) will include
Win32s in the developer kit.  What does this mean?  Win32s will let developers
create a *native* Win/NT binary that will also run on Windows 3.1 (With the
appropriate DLLs).  Any Win32s binary under Windows 3.1 will be true 32 bit
code running in a flat address space.  It will also run about 20% - 30%
faster than a non-Win32s binary under Windows 3.1.

Win32s is a win even if there is no Windows NT.  I expect most developers
of Windows software to move swiftly to Win32s (Those who don't will have poor
performance relative to competitors).  But wait!  As a *free bonus* these
same binaries will run in *native* mode under Windows NT!  So my company only
has to put one box on the shelf, "Requires: Windows 3.1 or Windows NT".

By shifting to Win32s developers will *automatically* be creating a flood of
Windows NT native apps.  As history has shown it is the apps that sell
systems.

Customer: I want to buy Autocad v14 plus whatever I need to run it.
Salesman: Do you want Windows 3.1 or Windows NT to run it on?
Customer: What is the difference?
Salesman: Windows NT provides MULTITASKING and built in NETWORKING.
Customer: Yeah, yeah, whatever.  I'll take NT I guess.
Salesman: Excellent choice sir!

Oops!  One slight problem: Win32s binaries won't run under OS/2 2.0...  Oh
well, no big deal, OS/2 is "dead" anyway.  (Well, to be fair OS/2 won't really
die.  It will just have to live with a market position somewhat below the
Amiga in terms of user base.)

Let the flames begin!

>
>
>Steven Gutz
>AECL Research
>Chalk River Laboratories
>Chalk River Ontario
>Canada K0J 1J0
>GUTZ@CC49.CRL.AECL.CA


Beth
erb@netcom.com

Disclaimer - Some organizations/individuals may fail to agree with my opinions.
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy