Newsgroups: bit.listserv.hellas
Date:         Fri, 11 Dec 1992 21:32:54 EST
Reply-To:     "Efstratios N. Kontogiannis" <enkontog@MAILBOX.SYR.EDU>
From:         "Efstratios N. Kontogiannis" <enkontog@MAILBOX.SYR.EDU>
Subject:      UN to recognize MACEDONIA

MAcedonia is likely to receive rapid international recognition from the UN
if the European Community fails to acknowledge the former Yugoslav republic's
independence at next week's Edinburough summit.
The move comes amid growing fears that the war raging in Bosnia will spill
over into Macedonia, igniting an even more horrific conflict which would bring
other Balkan countries into the Yugoslav civil war for the first time.
The prospect means that the UN diplomats are no longer prepared to wait
indefinetely for the EC to resolve its year long dispute over Macedonia's
recognition, claiming it would inflame regional tensions.
An EC ambassador to the UN said the matter would "fall out of the hands
of the EC and come to the UN" if the EC failed to resolve it in Edinburgh.
He predicted that the UN would be "highly unlikely" to turn the bid down,
even though Russia is the only one of the 15-member Security Council to have
recognised the state. "Unlike the EC, Greece has no veto here, and no one will
have a veto for her if the issue comes to the COuncil," agreed another EC
Security Council diplomat.
Were the UN used to circumvent an EC agreement, it would provoke a major row
 between member states and seriously damaga attempts to develop a common foreign
policy.
Dr. Boutros Ghali, the UN Secretary General, is said to be strongly supportive
of MAcedonia's admission to the world body. He enraged Greek officials last
week by referring in his letter to the Security Council to the crisis in
"Macedonia", without the usual qualifier "former Yugoslav republic".
Diplomats say that MAcedonia's UN membership, bringing a painful diplomatic
defeat to Greece, would open the way for immediate recognition by most non-
EC member-states to follow suit.
They say there is growing acceptance in NY that unless immediate action is taken
to end Macedonia's dilpomatic limbo- it declared independence last year but
has been recognised by obly a few countries- will be vulnerable to
 destabilisation and destruction by other regional powers.
Macedonia's political stability is also threatened by economic collapse. It is
the unintended victim if tightened sanctions against Serbia, which have severed
its only trade link to the outside world. It is also suffering from an economic
blockade from Greece.
If it does collapse into civil war, the consequences for the stability of the
eastern Mediterranean could be profound as first Serbia and then Albania are
drawn in. They wouls almost be followed by Bulgaria, Greece and then Turkey.
Some EC countries, including Britain, are very unhappy that Greece has managed
to veto every attempt by the EC to recognise MAcedonia. Diplomats say that
taking the matter to the UN, where there is widespread support  for MAcedonia,
would circumvent Greek opposition.
Greece is insisting that MAcedonia is totally dropped from the former Yugoslav
republic's name. It argues that keeping its present identity is evidence
of its territorial ambitions in the Greek province of that same name.
EC diplomats consider it unlikely that Athens will back down before the
 Edinburgh summit, relying on agrrement reached between the 12 member states not
 to
recognise any country with the word MAcedonia in it.
There is hope of a compromise. The EC's special envoy, Robin O'Neill, has hinted
that a settlement could be in the offing. If one is not reached, diplomats
 believe that the UN will take an increasingly active role in resolving the
 question
of Macedonia. It has sent a 14-member monitoring team to Macedonia ahead of the
possible delpoyment of peace-keepers. It will then respond to MAcedonia's
request for 1,000 peacekeepers.
Macedonia's UN apllication has already been lodged but it has been argued that
it will not be activated until the outcome of Edinburgh meeting becomes clear.

SOURCE: THE EUROPEAN
3-6 DECEMVER, 1992

STRATOS KONTOGIANNHS
SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY, MAXWELL SCHOOL
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