From: prabhak@giga.cs.umn.edu (Satya Prabhakar)
Subject: INDIA is a TRUMP CARD (Re: What Does a Clinton Presidency..) 
Organization: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, CSci dept.
Distribution: na
Date: Sat, 7 Nov 1992 11:41:51 GMT

(Ramesh Venkat) writes:
>What does a Clinton Presidency mean for India?  In an election dominated by
>domestic issues, the stump speeches or the various interviews do not provide
>an answer.  Hence the need for a skillful pundit who can make some intelligent
>(or intelligent sounding) guesses.

Terrific analysis/punditry. Not often do we see postings of this kind.

IMHO, the global alliances are now being formed bases strategic importance
from an economic/trade perspective and not from a military perspective.
This is where India becomes a key player in the world, notwithstanding
its poverty and associated ills. Precisely for the same reason, countries
such as Pakistan which buttressed American hand during cold strife will
be rendered largely irrelevant; they may be a minor factor but definitely
not a force to reckon with.

So, what are the factors that make India so important?

1. Established Infrastructure: India has a solid industrial base and
   the necessary enterpreneurial spirit to help foreign investors.
   The one deficiency is lack of communications infrastructure -
   both transport and electronic. Unless this base is overhauled,
   much progress cannot be achieved.

2. Enduring Democracy: Indians have zealously gaurded their democracy,
   unlike other third world countries which have more rpm than a 
   Boeing engine during takeoff. This is a major strength.

3. Mass Market: India presents a fantastic market to foreign companies.
   However, economic history has proved that the easiest way to 
   capture market share is by investing in it and by establishing
   good political relations.

US cannot afford to antagonize India because there are Japan and EC
waiting eagerly to romance India and get her into bed.

Now, the economic reforms have started a long time ago. Why is the
response so lukewarm? Mostly for two reasons:

1. The current wave of forms has started only one year ago. That is
   not a long time. If I am an investor, I will look for endurance.
   So watch tides of investment to flow in soon if Rao continues.

2. The whole world has been gripped by a severe recession. Companies
   both in US and Europe are cutting back due to poor cash flow
   situation. This is a gravely inopportune time for global expansions
   and investments. Watch India soar once the boom sets in globally.

Punditry: India will become a hot player in world economic scene very
          soon. It is inevitable. Unless (ass-saving qualification),
          the Government thinks it knows best and goes back to 
          socialist/isolationist policies. Much as I smart by saying
          this, India will benefit immensely by having a Reagan as
          its Prime Minister. Trickle-down will work in India, at least
          for the next 4-5 years. We have tried trickle-up for the
          last 50 years, and it ain't done much good, did it?

Advice:   Buy IGF at around $16.50 and lock it in the cellar for the
          next 3-4 years. Have the decency to call me if you make a
          fortune (612-951-7134) :-)

Sincerely, Satya Prabhakar