From: kim@magneto.physics.auburn.edu (Han-jung Kim)
Subject: Re: Han-jung Kim's mention about D.J
Message-I.d.: <1993Jan6.170142.23246@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu>
Organization: Auburn University, Auburn, AL
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 19:19:57 GMT

 In article <1993Jan6.170142.23246@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu> shlee@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu (Seunghun Lee) writes:
>In article <1993Jan6.005354.21040@news.duc.auburn.edu> kim@magneto.physics.auburn.edu (Han-jung Kim) writes:
>
>>   [his opinion deleted]
>>
>
>so to you the only lesson of this election is about poll.
>
>i wish you learn other lessons (as many netters posted) from this election.
>



   Oh, man. 

    Read carefully my posting!!!!!!

I wrote "one of the lessons" ,not "only the lesson".

   Sorry make you confused.

   Though, The use of poll in the real field (political or business ...)
   is so important that it can change whole market or subject if somebody
  does not realize its weight. 

   What I wanted to say was that MINJA predicted the result within margin
   of 2.5% but Minjoo was too far off. (not sure Minjoo just pretened to
   lead MINJA or they really did not know .)
 
  I am still sure that it is one of the important things to build a 
  plan or campaign based on the most accurate information, not
  on the confidence and belief or on the "BARAM" , or "feeling".

  Now I believe tht it is time to run a business using the accumulate
  data and technic to predict the future at least, although this is
  NOT THE WHOLE STORY .
>

 >I wish you learn other more important lessons (as other netters posted)
>from this election.
>
    Did I say that I neglected other netter's opinion and took them away
     like  garbage.   
    I wish that you, my fellow, be more careful before posting.

   At least have an attitute to read the posting carefully and
   understand what the poster wanted to say.

   This sort of out of targeting post triggers new conflict between
  ordinary individuals unnecessarily.

   Thus your point is based on your misunderstanding on my post. 
   Please Check it up.

  My word was "ONE of the lessons",  not "Only" the lesson.

  Sincerely.

  Anyway thank you for your interest, althoguh it is biased from truth. 


PS. For your correct understanding, Here I append the posting I did.



**********************************************
FOLOWING IS THE ORIGIANL POSTING I UPLOADED.

**********************************************

>>The poll has been doubtful data in Korea. It has been very hard to believe the
>>announcement of the media because it has been distorted by the military
>>goverment. Chosun-il-bo is one of the worst enemy to D.J. A lot of people might
>>have remembered the conflict between Chosun-il-bo and D.J. in 1989 after his
>>visiting Europe. I can guess there should be another kind of poll in the hand o
>
>  [Good opinion deleted]
>
>I am not from honam and yungnam, I can not read the homan people's mind how
>they feel about chosun-il-bo. Also I do not have any chance to compare
>the korean newspaper's bias over the candidates. In the future, when I am
>rich enough to pay for several newspapers, I will subscribe them and will
>compare the differences between the korean news papers.
>
>Although Chosun-il-bo coorperated with Korean Gallup, but still their
>prediction was very close to the final result withn the margin of 2.5%.
>
>The director of korean Gallup company convinced that their techinic would
>be the most reliable so that they could predict the '87 election.
>
>As pointed out, current poll down by korean company may not be reliable, but
>nowadays I think that we can trust the result from korean reaserch and korean
>gallup modeling technic, for they are old enough to give reliable output.
>
>So I trust the prediction done by those two company mentioned above.
>I am sure that DJ would use the prediction from one of the well known poll
>company in 87 as well as this election, but DJ and his brains missed the
>target twice. Then what poll has the opposition party used for so important
>election.
>
>Are there any other well-known survey company in korean excluding
>korean reaserch and korean gallup?  I wonder how many ther are and
>how accurate they are.
>
>Because Survey system is so impostant for today's decision, I would rather
>have more information about the survey companies in KOREA.

>I am really eager to understand how the assitant or the brains near DJ
>would think and how they made a plan to win.
>
>They did not even know that DJ was led by YS from the beginning of
>the opening ballots and MINJU told they would win %1-5% just before
>the election.  WHAT A DUMB BRAINS OF DJ TO ME!!!! (not DJ but the
>consultant or election brains working for DJ.)
>
>In 87, DJ's assistants have assure that if 4 candidates have run, then
>DJ could win, but DJ has race only 3rd rank.
>
>\This time, DJ's election brains triumphantly told that they were winning
>byt 1%-5%. However every prediction from MINJOO tured into false.
>
>So I feel pity for the misleading of MINJOO's prediction and how dumb
>the assistants or the campaign brains working for DJ were!!!
>
>Anyway, in the fure, when I have a chance to work for any kind of job in korean
>after my Ph.D degree, I will respect the poll result surveied by weill known
>company and will adjust the policy according to that.
>
>This is one of the lessons I can learn from DJ's failure in 1992.
>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
***************************************************
>Good and valuable case study on 1992 korean prez election!!!!! to me.

>Thank you again to all the netters who revealed their viewpoints.


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