From: barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us (Mr Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS: AFRICA: FAO FORECASTS A MIXTURE OF FORTUNES AND WOES
Originator: barnhart@gagme
Organization: Evanston, Illinois
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 1992 07:56:22 GMT


Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Africa, southern
Reference: Agriculture
Title: AFRICA: FAO FORECASTS A MIXTURE OF FORTUNES AND WOES


nairobi, sep 27 (ips) -- the food and agriculture organisation
(fao) forecasts a mixture of fortunes and woes for africa where
at least 40 million of its 650 million people needed emergency
food aid.

in its third special report on the status of food in africa,
released here saturday, the rome-based u.n. agency says somalia
faces an even worse catastrophe as donors fail to deliver food
in time. the outlook for the 1992/93 is bleak.

liberia, sierra leone and zaire are experiencing food supply
difficulties, while kenya is among a few countries where
prospects for the new season are rosy, with near-normal and
normal harvests being reported.

the report, compiled the fao global information and early
warning services (escg), says 20 african countries face
exceptional food emergencies due to drought, civil strife,
shortage of inputs, logistics constraints, refugees, shortages
of foreign exchange and displacements of rural populations.

''somalia continues to be devastated by a massive famine.
very poor cereal crop, now being harvested, will do little to
improve the situation, and without a substantial intensification
of the relief efforts, the situation is likely to deteriorate
further'', warns the report.

in other eastern african countries, the report says
there have been poor short rains. in ethiopia crop failure and
continuing drought in pastoral areas have worsened the
situation.

the inter-ethnic clash victims in western kenya, where at
least 52,000 persons have been displaced, need urgent relief
supplies, as do 1.5 million people in 20 drought-ravaged, mainly
semi-arid districts.

''sudan's plight is highlighted by the 300,000 people holed
up in the southern sudanese rebel-surrounded city of juba. wau
and meiram, also in the south, are affected by famine caused by
the civil war, displacements and localised crop failure'', the
report says.

due to localised crop failures, the east african nation
of tanzania needs support to transport food from surplus to
deficit areas to avoid shortages.

in west africa and the sahel region, fao reports severe
constraints for the liberian farmer because of the continued
stalemate between two factions fighting for the control of the
country. (more/ips)


africa:

civil war, now mainly being fought between charles taylor's
national patriotic front of liberia and loyalists of slain
president samwel doe, has disrupted supply of seeds, caused
inadequate supply of farm implemenets and inputs and displaced
farming populations.

''these come after a dry weather, earlier in the growing
season, making liberia a potentially famine zone in the next
one year'', says the report, which follows two others issued in
june and july.

''in the larger sahelian region, there is good news, with
widespread rains earlier in the year having encouraged farming.
pastures have rejuvenated, and the pest situation is calm, with
the exception of a few areas ravaged by grasshoppers and
locusts''.

''however, mauritania may face food hardships resulting
from irregular, below normal rain. a poor harvest is in
prospect'', the report says.

ghana, southern parts of cote d'ivoire and togo, have
experienced prolonged dry weather, resulting in reduced yields.

in northern nigeria insufficient rains, coupled with
shortages of fertilisers, are a cause of worries for food
shortages.

while global cereal food aid is falling due to social and
political problems in the former soviet bloc, which has had its
agricultural activities disrupted and while food production in
northern america has fallen, africa will be in need of increased
cereal food aid.

''this is a result of the continued decline in domestic
production in southern africa, and the crisis in the horn of
africa'', says the report. however, a ''large proportion of
sub-saharan africa's food aid will not be met in the 1992/93
season''.

in southern africa, where food aid has generally been forth-
coming, the report says the main constraint is now ''delivery
logistics''. pledges received fall short of requirements.

in malawi and zambia, imports delivery has been low, althouth
the zambian situation is a little better than malawi's. in
neighbouring zimbabwe, the number of people appealing for relief
assistance is approaching half the country's 10.8 million
people.

the report makes several recommendations. for example, in
somalia, it says while deliveries msut be stepped up -- and
there are such prospects -- the local deliveries will depend
largely on the coming of 3,000 u.n. forces to guard imports and
ensure deliveries. (end/ips/ha/apc/92)