From: petonak@chem.psu.edu (Paul Petonak)
Newsgroups: rec.arts.comics.xbooks
Subject: Re: Next polybagged run
Date: 22 Jul 92 19:20:19 GMT
Distribution: rec

|>Remember the stock market crash of 1929 (well, not directly, of course) ???
|>How about the crash in 'museum' art prices that is happening now, because
|>for the last decade or so art prices were spiraling out of control??
|>This *will* happen to the comicbook market once the market is saturated.
|>IMHO, I think the saturation point will be reached in the *very* near
|>future.

What do you mean by a saturation point? There are currently only three ways
to collect comics for value....

1) The Long Term Investment:
   Buy something new which will have lasting interest and wait twenty years.
   I.e., that random X-men (pre-Jim Lee) you picked up will eventually be
   worth something to the new collector who doesn't have it. I notice alot
   of this is already happening to X-men that I picked up a while back but
   are by no means 'outstanding' issues, have no well known artist, nor have
   any special events. They are somewhat 'rare' and are sought after.
   
   The disadvantage to this method is you have to wait very long.

2) Short Term Luck:
   In this case you happen to pick up an issue with an artist that no one
   thought would go over as well as he does (first Jim Lee/Rob Liefelds),
   or you pick up a first issue of a book which, for one reason or another, 
   takes off (new Ghost Rider series (I do not beleive Marvel expected such
   success) or to a certain extent the New Warriors and Darkhawk).

   The disadvantage is you can never bee exactly sure who will skyrocket.

3) Heavy Cash Investment in Valued Issues:
   Take the money you've been blowing on bagged issues and multiple #1's 
   and buy yourself a $200-$300 VF-NM or better Golden Age book, or, to 
   a lesser extent, a Silver Age book. Any g/s age book is very rare and is
   worth the investment if it is VF or better. Look at the market report
   in Overstreet; every year many g/s comics (mostly golden) are sold for 
   astounding prices if they are in good enough shape. Even comics that you
   would not imagine there being an interest in. Many prices, on those which
   are not in the $1000's range, double every year. This is where I do most
   of my investing. 

   The disadvantage is you have to hunt out these comics although if you
   look in the right places you can find a gold mine. (A side story, I know
   I am rambling, I was at a comic shop once where, during a discussion
   with the owner, a fellow came in with a large box of comics he wanted
   to dump. He said he had found them in his attic, he knew they were worth
   money, and demanded at least $2 for each ($1000 total). We opened the
   box to see a very early Flash and another very early Detective Comics 
   sitting on top, both in excellent condition. He got his $1000......) It
   can also be painstaking to sell them.

Getting back to the original article, yes, I agree, however, I think the 
saturation point has hit to a certain extent. Take for example Punisher 
appearances. These were the rage for a while. Now, the interest has died 
completely, current cameos/appearances are not doing as well, and I notice
frequent 'markdowns' on Punisher issues when I visit my usual stores. This 
seems to be happening to some other characters/books as well. 

Again, what exactly you mean by 'saturation', I don't know. Yes, there is a
lot of nonsense going on (multiple covers, bagged runs) which causes a lot of
speculating and bulk buying. This definetley does nothing for long term value
as there are so many issues floating around, so the market is saturated in
that way. With all the stuff that is hitting the market these days (afore-
mentioned nonsense) people don't have extra money to spend so back issues 
(recent and older) are devalued, so the market is saturated in that way as well. 

It would be very interesting to see what effects a comic market 'crash' would
have. None-the-less, I DO NOT think it will have any affect on Golden or
SIlver age markets.

Paul


P.S. WOuld LOVE to see this thread continue....