HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: 91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (roger maynard)
Subject: Re: Value of Stats
Organization: Dept. of Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, ON
Date: Sat, 25 Jul 1992 03:09:44 GMT

In <1992Jul24.222433.4535@adobe.com> snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols) writes:

>To me, that's the entire key.  All opinions are *not* equally valid.
>You're perfectly entitled to hold the opinion that Luis Salazar is a more
>valuable player than Barry Bonds, but if you want to have a prayer of
>convincing anyone else of that, then you'd better bring some supporting
>evidence along.  

Forget about Salazar.  Who would you rather have: Bonds or Puckett?  Playing
for an underdog Kirby has two rings.  Playing for a favourite Bonds has zip.
Since Puckett and Bonds are relatively equal forces on their respective teams 
they make a good comparison.  Bonds has an edge in individual statistics.  Is
he a better player?  The ultimate measure of a player's worth is how much he
contributes to his team's quest for the WC.  Has Bonds contributed as much
as Puckett?  I think this is a tough call.  I don't think that statistics are
going to help too much in deciding this case.  The stats do tell us that they
are both elite players.  The stats can't tell us which is better because
the stats cannot give us a value - zero or otherwise - for their "intangible"
contributions.  

>If you just assert that Luis Salazar is a better player than Barry Bonds,
>you're guaranteed to attract posts asking you what drugs you're on.  If you

if only the flames were so innocuous as this... 

>say Luis Salazar is a better player *because* he's a nicer guy in the
>clubhouse, you have to expect that someone's going to ask you how having
>nicer guys in the clubhouse contributes to winning, and if Salazar is nice
>enough to make up for the difference in performance on the field.  

I can say that statistics tell me that Puckett and Bonds are both great 
players but that I think that Puckett just might have the edge over Bonds 
because he has the rings.  Stats are ok.  They just don't tell us as much
as we would like.  You have to have a little faith that there is more to 
the universe than what we can measure with statistics.

>Same thing is true for statistical arguments.  There's no double standard
>here; if you claim that Luis Salazar is a better player because he hits
>.500 with runners on first in Tuesday night games, and Bonds only hits
>.167, then it should not surprise you when somebody asks you what batting
>average with runners on first in Tuesday night games has to do with winning
>baseball games. 

Stats can give you approximations - "ball-park" figures if I may - of a
player's worth.  Anybody looking at the stats of Salazar and Bonds will
know immediately that there is no comparison.  But until you can prove to
me that the "intangibles" are not a factor in a player's performance and
can prove that statistical discrepencies are solely due to luck then I
can't believe that any objective measure of a players worth can be made.

rm

>Sherri Nichols
>snichols@adobe.com


-- 
roger maynard                    
91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca
From: al1x+@andrew.cmu.edu (Amit Likhyani)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Bucs over the weekend
Date: 21 Jul 92 14:45:19 GMT
Organization: Junior, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA

To start, I thought Danny Jackson threw the hell out of the ball on Sunday
against the Cubs.  ESPN said he hit 95 on the gun and I heard a lot of 93,
94 MPH fastballs even in the 7th inning.  He must be healthy and I think he
will help the pitching staff, especially with Zane Smith having a sore
shoulder.  The Pirates now have Jackson, Tomlin, and Smith as their lefty
contingent with Steve Cooke poised to join them.

Wehner is never going to hit for any kind of power.  Jeff King should be 
shot.  For the record, I don't hate Jeff King personally, I am positive 
that he cannot hit major league pitching.  

At the time of the Beuchele deal, I heard Jose Lind was on the block.  Has
anything come of that?  I would rather see Garcia playing second than
third.  For this year, I guess it does not matter than much.  Lind will not
be with the team next year.  

Why couldn't they give Kevin Young a couple of starts while he was up?

Van Stud is keeping it going.  I don't think the Pirates have seen a lefty
starter since the all star break.  He is 2nd in hitting, 1st in hits, 2nd
in doubles, 4th in triples, 5th in RBI.  Bill James said that a player is 
most likely to have an MVP season after signing a big contract.  I guess
Van Slyke is a good example of that.  This season may be his best ever in 
terms of OPS.  The glamour stats of BA and RBI may also be their best this
year.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: GMaddux to Test Free Agency Waters
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Mon, 27 Jul 92 00:23:29 GMT

In article <1992Jul26.155016.3729@tamsun.tamu.edu> rlm7638@tamsun.tamu.edu (Jack McKinney) writes:
>claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>>
>>What is wrong with offering a below-average offensive RF who is 38 years old
>>a 1-year contract?  Offering that contract at all, I suppose...
>>
>
>      For a below average offensive RF, he has the most RBI's of anyone on the
>team, with Ryno coming a close second (or is that the other way around--
>I forget). As a defensive player, I've seen him make some outstanding plays
>out there. I'd hate to hit a ball into C or R field-- he can cover both (and
>has -- I've seen him steal several catches from CF Douggie Dascenzo).

Clean-up hitters get *a lot* more RBI chances, and thus more RBIs.

Besides, Pete O'Brien was second on the Mariners last year in RBIs.  Does that
mean that he was the second best player on the team?

Dawson still slugs pretty well, but his OBP is strictly shortstop type.

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
Committee to Elect Johnny Ray as Angels Second Baseman
Committee to Elect Mike Witt as Angels Ace
Committee to Elect Cookie Rojas as Angels Manager
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Dawson, was: Re: GMaddux to Test Free Agency Waters
Date: 29 Jul 92 23:21:15 GMT
Organization: Factors of Ys, Inc.

In article <Bs68I3.D8M@news.cso.uiuc.edu> yl44729@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu (Rick Lin ) writes:
>Dawson an average defense player?  He's still one of the best defensive  
>outfielders around.  He still has enough speed to run down most fly balls.

Not really.  He got to about 46% of them last year; league average was 57%.
Over his 460 opportunities last season, that puts him almost 50 outs below
average.  Yech.

>His arm is still one of the strongest and most accurate.  

It takes a lot of assists to make up for 50 should-have-been-outs.

>25 HRs is not bad for any power hitter and so is 90-100 RBIs.    

It's bad if it's all the offense you produce.  Dave Kingman was mediocre
while hitting 35 HR per year.  Frank Thomas is a batting monster while hitting
25 HR because of all the other things he does.  (And, of course, RBI's don't
tell you much more than that Dawson bats cleanup, but that's a different
thread.)


-- 
        David M. Tate        | "And that inverted Bowl we call The Dome
   dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu   |  Whereunder crawling coop'd we field and bat,
   Edward "Mike" Fitzgerald  |     Lift not your eyes to *it* for help--for it
     from "The Ruthaiyat"    |  Will drop the tow'ring fly upon your hat."
From: josh@cbnewsh.cb.att.com (joshua.h.rosenbluth)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Yankees..Whats UP?
Date: 28 Jul 92 20:29:48 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: AT&T

In article <1992Jul28.172502.14931@news.columbia.edu> mike@cunixf.cc.columbia.edu (Michael Chen) writes:

>Dave Silvestri will not be a major league shortstop.  He can't field.
>He can hit, but cannot field, and you cannot afford that at the
>shortstop level.  Shortstop will be the permanent home of possibly
>Eenhorn before it is Silvestri's.

In today's USA Today there is an article on the Yankee farm system, in which
they mention Eenhorn.  What is Eenhorn's background?  Why, at age 24 is he in
A ball (at least he started the season there), while Silvestri, also at 24,
is in AAA?

Josh Rosenbluth (attmail!jrosenbluth)
From: cjlee@laplace.uwaterloo.ca (Ironman)
Subject: Re: Jays: Gillick says there will be a trade
Organization: University of Waterloo
Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1992 18:49:38 GMT

>In article cwhui@cayley.waterloo.edu (Chen W. Hui) writes:
>>The Jays gave away Ducey and Myers for Mark Eichorn, the submarine pitcher
>>who has previously played for Toronto.

In article pfferrei@laplace.uwaterloo.ca (Paulo Ferreira) writes:
[...]
>.. Good deal..  From what I've seen of Eichhorn this year he seems to
>be pitching pretty well (any Angels fans wish to comment???) and we all know
>what he's done for the Jays in the past.

Ditto.  Who old are the players involved?  Eichhorn, I think should be in
his early 30's now.  Ducey is around 26-27?  Myres also 26-27?
Hmmm..another younger players for an older player move.  This worries me a
little if the Jays continue to go this route -- especially those 2-for-1 
deals.

Regardless of the trade, the two call-ups are great also.  Having Sprague
and Knorr on the bench will give Cito many pinch hitting possibilities.

Does anyone have stats on Eichhorn?  I know he has a very respectable ERA
(somewhere around 2).  But, I'm particularly interested to know how many
blown saves he has this season.

The Jays now have 26 players on the roster.  How are they going to reduce the
roster to 25?  Hentgen would be an ok choice to send down...but Timlin hasn't
been too sharp lately...  Tabler can be put on the DL...
From: "stephen dawson" <stephen.dawson@canrem.com>
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: guzman???
Date: 27 Jul 92 19:14:34 EST
Reply-To: "stephen dawson" <stephen.dawson@canrem.com>
Distribution: rec
Organization: Canada Remote Systems

nflynn@wvnvms.wvnet.edu  writes

NN>What is Juan Guzman's status....How serious is his injury?....Is he going
NN>to be put on the DL?  All I know is that he came out of last night's game
NN>with some sort of shoulder trouble.  Please e-mail me if you know more...

He will miss his next start, but that should be it.

    STEPHEN
    ^^^^^^^    :-)

 stephen.dawson@canrem.com
 Entered 07-27-92 at 6:44pm in Downsview, Ontario

 * DeLuxe2/386 1.25 #3969 * Intellectual Totalitarianism: Socialism in Action
--
Canada Remote Systems  - Toronto, Ontario/Detroit, MI
World's Largest PCBOARD System - 416-629-7000/629-7044
From: jortiz@lazy.helios.nd.edu (The Candyman)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Shades of Toby Harrah
Date: 25 Jul 92 01:24:42 GMT
Reply-To: jortiz@lazy.helios.nd.edu (The Candyman)
Organization: University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame

In article <2145@h.cs.wvu.wvnet.edu>, Gerry Hobbs writes:
|> 
|>     Does anybody see what Downing's doing? According to McPaper's
|> weekly stats Brian Downing had 41 walks and 164 at bats. Ignoring
|> HB, SF,SH and some really rare events, that means he is walking 20% 
|> of the time. Toby Harrah had a season like that some time ago. It was
|> followed by a terrible season and the end of his career. 
|>     Some time thereafter I read an article, perhaps in BJA, about the
|> exceptionally high walk rate being a harbinger of subsequent decline.
|> The idea as I recall it was that slowed reflexes causes the aging batter
|> to take pitches he used to rip away at.  At this time the pitchers are 
|> still, of course, pitching to his reputation as something of a slugger 
|> - being careful.  The next year the reflexes slip even farther and the 
|> pitchers get bolder and Toby gets to retire to West Palm Beach. I don't
|> remember for sure but I think there were other examples of similar
|> career paths.
|>     You could predict a similar fate for Downing based purely on his
|> age I guess.  It will be interesting to see if his decline is as rapid as
|> was Harrah's.
|>                             Gerry

I think I heard he's retiring after the end of the season,
so this Ranger is ending his career "walking" to the
sunset...  :-)

			The Candyman
From: roger@casbah.acns.nwu.edu (Roger Safian)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: 6 hits in inning without scoring
Date: 30 Jul 92 21:43:17 GMT
Distribution: rec
Organization: Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA

In <1992Jul30.212002.17225@samba.oit.unc.edu> Jarrod.Miller@bbs.oit.unc.edu (Jarrod Miller) writes:

>In article <18792@drutx.ATT.COM> bew@druwa.ATT.COM (WeissBE) writes:
>>
>>dgh2@quads.uchicago.edu (Doug Huffer) writes
>>How can a team get 3 triples, 1 double, 2 singles, and 2 stolen
>>bases in their half of an inning without scoring?  He claimed it
>>actually occurred in a minor league game.  I will send the
>>solution later.
> 
>Not as hard as it seems, though it be wierd to see my answer actually
>done:
>
>Beginning of inning, 0 outs, 0 runners on base
>First batter hits triple
>Gets picked off third
>After pickoff, second batter hits a triple as well
>He gets picked off as well.
>Next batter gets a double, and then steals third.
>Fourth batter in the inning bunts and is safe on first with a single.
>Batter who just bunted steals second.
>Batter #3 is now on 3rd, Batter #4 is on 2nd. 2 outs.
>Next batter bunts and gets a single as well, with no one advancing.
>Batter #6 in the inning pops up or strikes out, whatever.
> 
>No runs, 5 hits (2 triples, 1 double, 2 singles), 3 outs

Big deal, we're looking for six hits (one more triple) here.  I don't think
it's possible to do.  I don't see how you can get the sixth hit without a
run scoring, because if there is a man forced for the last out, you won't
have a hit.  Let's see that solution.

                                                        Roger
From: rsmith@strobe.ATC.Olivetti.Com (Russ Smith)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Jeff Ballard
Date: 29 Jul 92 16:16:46 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: Olivetti ATC; Cupertino CA, USA

In article <64600@hydra.gatech.EDU> gt0317c@prism.gatech.EDU (BHANSALI,ANIL P) writes:
>Does anyone have stats on Jeff Ballard at Louisville? I think the NL is
>starting to catch up to Donavon Osborne and he might need to spend some
>time at Louisville

Ballard's numbers in AAA are pretty good(although his H/IP ratio is not
impressive), but Ballard has proven pretty well he's not much of a pitcher.

Yes the NL is catching on to Osborne(as I predicted a couple of months
ago), he's a 2 pitch pitcher(fastball, great changeup) and hitters are
figuring out since he's always around the plate, they're going to get a
pitch to hit. Osborne's last 4 appearances have been bad, but there
are plausible explanations. Last night was just plain stupid managing
by Torre IMHO. Osborne has been a starter since the day we drafted him,
and Torre brings him into a tie game in the 7th inning and expects him
to instantly be a reliever? I can only speculate that he either thought
an innning or 2 in relief could bolster his confidence, or that since
he's been knocked out early lately, he felt he needed the work, but
in either case its not at all unexpected for a starter to fail in that
position. I don't know for sure, but it was probably his first relief
appearance since college. 2 starts ago against the Braves, he was bombed
real early, but again there is an obvious reason. He had been knocked out
real early in his last start just before the All-Star game, and the way
the schedule worked out, he went 10 days before his next outing. He
was really struggling with his control that game, and commented after
the game that he was too strong.

Osborne isn't as good as he was pitching the first couple of months,
but he isn't as bad as he's been recently either, and AAA won't do him
any good IMHO. What he needs is a consistent curveball. On the days
he can get his curve over and keep it down he's VERY tough, when he
can't he gets in trouble with just 2 pitches.





Russ Smith
*******************************************************************************
"Mellow is the man, who knows what he's been missing
many, many men can't see the open road".
                                    Over the hills and far away- Led Zeppelin  
******************************************************************************
From: Don@wang.com (Don Rivard)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: 69 Mets
Date: 28 Jul 92 19:39:23 GMT
Organization: Wang Labs Lowell Ma

Who were the 4 mets pitchers during the 69 seasons?	
Also who were the 4 20 game winners for baltimore?
Thanx
From: gt6930a@prism.gatech.EDU (LEHDE,KEVIN VAL)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Oh, no!  I am so sorry...
Date: 22 Jul 92 15:37:35 GMT
Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology

Guys, that last post from me was a big mistake.  I didn't realize that
I had anything in my dead. file, and I sent the posting from there directly,
so ya'll got a bunch of garbage that didn't belong there.  I am very sorry.

I hope no one read it all.  That thing was long.


-- 
Kevin Lehde
Lover of cats, the stage, the female form, Toonces K. Templeton, 
the Incredible Hulk, college football (as a sport), Meloni, volleyball,
the Braves, Digger, God, sleeping in, and a rollicking good time.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: rja@redwood26.cray.com (Russ Anderson)
Subject: Re: Where have all the flakes gone?
Originator: rja@redwood26
Organization: The 1991 World Champion Minnesota Twins!
Date: 22 Jul 92 11:07:36 CDT


In article <92204.084513U39730@uicvm.uic.edu>, Norma Kateeb <U39730@uicvm.uic.edu> writes:
> Are there any modern day flakes left in baseball?

Junior "Joe" Ortiz.

> It seems that now that the players' salaries are so
> much higher, that very few guys are really playing for the
> pure love and enjoyment of the game.  I still love baseball
> but I think that there are too few wacko personalities out there.

When Junior was in a slump last year, he changed his name to Joe
saying that Joe hit better.  When asked what would happen if Joe
could not hit, Ortiz said that he would shave his head and change 
his name to Kirby.

Just yesterday (in todays paper) Junior said that the reason he
always plays in "get away" day games is that it guarantees a
victory so they can all celebrate on the plane.

> They used to give the game a lot of color and made it a lot more
> fun and interesting. Do we have guys today like Mark "The Bird"
> Fidrych" or Bill "Spaceman" Lee?  Even the managers are boring.
> No Earl Weavers or Billy Martins that I know of--totally colorless.

Like Tom Kelly.  Kelly was asked about strategy before Game 7 (in
1987) and Kelly replied "We're going to take this one game at a time."

> Okay fans--is there anyone today--be it player, manager, GM, umpire--
> ANYONE who adds some life and fun to the game today?

Kirby when told that he was named to the CBS "Dream Team": "Does that
mean I'm going to Barcelona?"

-- 
Russ Anderson    |  Disclaimer: Any statements are my own and do not reflect
------------------              upon my employer or anyone else.  (c) 1992
EX-Twins' Jack Morris, 10 innings pitched, 0 runs (World Series MVP!)
From: dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Home Run Derby TV show
Date: 28 Jul 92 05:01:41 GMT
Organization: Factors of Ys, Inc.

In article <1992Jul27.222914.10919@panix.com> wlarkin@panix.com (Ward Larkin) writes:

>Yesterday I had a little barroom discusion about where
>that show took place.  I said it was from the old Wrigley
>Field in Los Angeles.  

That's correct.

-- 
        David M. Tate        | "And that inverted Bowl we call The Dome
   dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu   |  Whereunder crawling coop'd we field and bat,
   Edward "Mike" Fitzgerald  |     Lift not your eyes to *it* for help--for it
     from "The Ruthaiyat"    |  Will drop the tow'ring fly upon your hat."
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger)
Subject: Re: More Rocket Bashing
Organization: Computing Services Division, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1992 19:02:51 GMT

In article <1992Jul30.181054.17234@osf.org> ron@osf.org (Ron Birnbaum) writes:
>In article <29JUL92.21531172@vax.clarku.edu>, hhenderson@vax.clarku.edu writes:
>|> Yes, Roger Clemens is probably the best pitcher in baseball -- during
>|> the regular season.  Stop me if I'm wrong, stat fiends, but I consider
>|> his post-season performance to be underwhelming.  If he pitched in
>|> October against a championship team the way he pitches, say, in April
>|> against the Mariners, I doubt that the year 1918 would hold such
>|> dismal significance for Red Sox fans.
>|> 
>|> There are many possible reasons for Roger's ineffectiveness in the
>|> post-season.  (Drum roll, please -- the Baseball Psychiatrist is
>|> In.) 
>
>
>  Maybe we just don't have a large enough sample of Clemens post-season
>  performance to be statistically significant. And I don't think he was
>  healthy for the '86 Series. Would someone post all of Roger's post season
>  stats? 
>
     Or maybe he gets too pumped, throws his pitches too hard, and sees his
     breaking pitches stay straight. Can you say ducks on a pond?

     just a thought...
     --Salty 

>


Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dae@cbnews.cb.att.com (david.a.elliott)
Subject: Re: Throwing Good Money After Bad
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 1992 18:50:23 GMT

In a different, flame-filled discussion:

>In article <54615@mentor.cc.purdue.edu> poutsmaj@mace.cc.purdue.edu (unknown) writes:
>>The fact that stats can't predict what will happen in the future is why
>>teams have scouts and coaches to evalute players' talents.  


In article <3435@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:
>Right.  The same scouts and coaches that drafted Jeff King number one in the
>draft, because in their expert opinions he was going to be a star.  Sure.

>Had you no axe to grind, you might notice that you just shifted your standards
>by quite a bit.  Statistical projection is dismissed because sometimes it
>isn't perfectly accurate, but scouts and coaches are allowed to draft Jeff
>King and, worse yet, continue to treat him as a prospect long after he'd 
>proven that he was almost certainly never going to be any good.  I'll take
>the numbers, thanks.

King has managed to stick around simply because he was a top choice.  Teams
usually spend a fair amount of money on high choices, and thus are willing
to give them lots of chances to succeed.  Lower round choices have a much
smaller window of opportunity.  This is the same reasoning teams use to
justify playing highly paid and poorly performing veterans.

Lets look at the stats of two AA level minor leaguers from 1990:

        Prof.
   Age Seasons   AB   R   H   2B 3B  HR RBI   AVG   SLG  SB
A   23   5      470  78  126  24  6  10  64  .268  .409  21
B   24   2      487  89  156  37  8  15  95  .320  .522  21

These two were teammates, and the big club had openings at both of their
respective positions (CF and DH).  Who got the call up?  Player A, of course.
He was a first round choice, while player B was a 57th round choice.

These are the stats of my favorite whipping boy, Brian McRae, and Jeff
Conine, the next first baseman for the Rockies.

Mike Schmidt was a slow starter at every level at which he played - high
school, college, minors, majors.  Had he not been a high pick, the Phillies
might very well have cut him loose quickly, and they would have lost out on
a Hall Of Fame talent.  He was lucky.  Players like Conine are not.



Dave Elliott
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball