From: king@cogsci.ucsd.EDU (Jonathan King)
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections
Subject: DATA: LA Times Cal. Poll (was: A guess at the electoral votes...)
Summary: Clinton leads Bush by 21% in both Perot and no-Perot scenarios
Keywords: electoral votes, poll, polls, california, clinton, bush, toast, :-)
Date: 15 Sep 92 19:55:35 GMT
Organization: University of California, San Diego

fusco@ucsu.Colorado.EDU (Andrew Fusco) writes:
>king@cogsci.ucsd.EDU (Jonathan King) writes:
>>You didn't mention CA, so I assume you agree there as well.
>
>Yes. Everything I've heard so far indicates nothing less than a big
>victory for Clinton there.

...speaking of which, it looks like you're correct.  The LA Times
published their latest poll of registered voters today, and things are
looking pretty disastrous for Bush, at least in California.

1330 registered voters were intervied by phone September 10-13 in a
poll directed by John Brennan, whoever he is.  Margin of error is +-3%
for whole group questions, and higher for certain subgroups.
Pointsize of the type used in the methodology box looked to be about
6. :-)

Here are the relevent questions and responses:

QUESTION:	If the election for President were being held today and
		the candidates were Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ross
		Perot, for whom would you vote?
           
	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Other	Undec.
	
	49%	28%	17%	1%	5%	;; Marrou not named, fyi,
						;; Perot is officially a
						;; declared candidate in CA

QUESTION:	If the election for President were being held today and
		the candidates were Bill Clinton and George Bush, for
		whom would you vote?

	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Other	Undec.

	57%	36%		2%	5%	;; note that other candidates
						;; will appear on the ballot


Q:  REPLY TO (SECOND?) QUESTION FOR SELF-DESCRIBED DEMOCRATS:

	Clinton	Bush	Other and Undecided
	
	~85+%	8%	~7%-		;; guessed at from the Bush 8% number
					;; (1 in 14 Demos will cross over)
						

Q:  REPLY TO (SECOND?) QUESTION FOR SELF-DESCRIBED REPUBLICANS

	Clinton	Bush	Other and Undecided
	
	16%	?77%	?7%		;; guessed at from the Clinton 16%
					;; (1 in 6 Repubs. will cross over)


REPLY TO (FIRST?) QUESTION FOR SELF-DESCRIBED CONSERVATIVES

	Clinton	Bush	Other and Undecided

	25%	?68%	?7%		;; guessed at from Clinton 25%
					;; (1 in 4 will "cross over"!)

One other major point: The Times said that the poll results were
"essentially the same" even when factoring in how likely participants
were to vote and under high or low turnout scenarios, although they
gave no numbers.  (Grrh.)  

Other tidbits: 85% of those polled think that that California is
"seriously off on the wrong track" (up from 69% in late August,
probably thanks to the announced 9.8% unemployment figure for August),
and 61% of those polled believe that California is in a serious
recession (this may or may not be true state-wide regardless of
national figures).

More directly relevent to the election perhaps is the
positive/negative attitude question.  Clinton has a 58% favorable
impression and a 31% unfavorable impression, while bush is 39%
favorable and 58% unfavorable.  People who viewed Bush unfavorably
"cited his handling of the economy and talked about a lack of
leadership and trust".  Bush's job rating matches his favorability
rating exactly.  About 75% of California voters said that Clinton's
draft status had an effect on their vote--NOT.  :-)  

Q. IF {CLINTON/BUSH} IS ELECTED PRESIDENT, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT
THINGS IN THE NATION WILL IMPROVE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW
YEARS?
		Clinton		Bush

Likely:		64%		41%
Unlikely:	33%		57%
Don't know:	 3%		 3%

Meanwhile, some issues that Californians want to hear more about include:

Economy/unemployment	62%
Education		17%
Federal Deficit		13%
Health Care		12%
Taxes			 8%
Abortion		 4%
Foreign Policy		 2%
Moral Values		 2%

(Figures total to more than 100% because voters could name more than
1.)

Analysis: Unless something truly earth-shattering but non-seismic
event happens, Bush would appear to have transmogrified into crispy
toast in California.  Bush should not publicly take Nixon's advice to
abandon the state, but he probably shouldn't bother visiting too much
unless there is an obvious and dramatic change of fortune in the weeks
ahead.  In fact, if Bush's toastiness here becomes commonly accepted
fact, one could see even more defections to candidates such as Perot
and Marrou, particularly from the Bush camp.  We're talking crash,
slash and burn here.

But speaking of charred things, let's get back to our regularly
scheduled flamefests...

jking
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