HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: gerry@macadam.mpce.mq.edu.au (Gerry Myerson)
Subject: Re: Two instances of Simpson's "paradox"
Originator: gerry@macadam.mpce.mq.edu.au
Organization: School of MPCE, Macquarie University, Australia.
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 1992 00:30:38 GMT



In article <10NOV199215143835@mary.fordham.edu>, nissim@mary.fordham.edu (Leonard J. Nissim) writes:
> 
> In this long, bleak off-season, Richard J. Friedlander has noted two 
> instances of Simpson's "paradox".  

Bill James gave an example in a Baseball Abstract some years ago---player A 
had a higher batting average than player B on artificial turf, and also on 
natural grass, but a lower average overall. 

>(It is not really a paradox, just an
> anti-intuitive truth:  Player A can beat Player B in batting average for
> each of two years, while B has the higher batting average for the two 
> years combined.  Actually, more than 2 years could be involved; the actual 
> instances below are for 2.)
> 
> First case
> ----------
> 
>                 Ken Oberkfell      Mike Scioscia    
>                 AB   H    BA       AB  H    BA      Comment  
> 1983           488  143  .293      35  11  .314    Scioscia wins 1983
> 1984           324   87  .269     341  93  .273    Scioscia wins 1984
> 2-year Total   812  230  .283     376 104  .277    Oberkfell wins 2-year period
> 
> 
> Second case
> -----------
> 
>                 Dave Justice       Andy Van Slyke
>                 AB   H    BA       AB  H    BA      Comment  
> 1989            51   12  .235     476 113  .237    Van Slyke wins 1989
> 1990           439  124  .282     493 140  .284    Van Slyke wins 1990
> 2-year Total   490  136  .278     969 253  .261    Justice wins 2-year period
> 
> Credits:  E. H. Simpson published the possibility of this or similar
>           "paradoxes" in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society in 1951.
>           R. J. Friedlander published these examples in the current issue of 
>           The American Mathematical Monthly (Nov. 1992)
> 
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Leonard Nissim, notorious Dodger fanatic     (nissim@mary.fordham.edu)  
> Disclaimer:  "I speak only for myself."   
> World Championships:  Brooklyn-----1955   
>                       Los Angeles--1959  1963  1965  1981  1988
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gerry Myerson
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: jm0i@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (JOSEPH ALOYSIUS MCVEIGH)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: The New Yuck Mets: A Look Ahead
Date: 23 Nov 92 18:04:36 GMT
Organization: Lehigh University

scott@asd.com (Scott Barman) writes:
>Keith Hernandez was traded for Neil Allen and Rick Owenby.
>Gary Carter was traded for Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham, and ...
>drat! I can't remember, but it was a pitcher.

For the record, it was Dwight Gooden's cousin Floyd Youmans.

>No, he's not worth $5+ million per year, but that's what his contract is
>and I don't think it's going to change.  IMHO, his contract was given to
>him as much as a reward for the past as it was to keep him during a time
>they were having p.r. problems while negotiating with Darryl Strawberry.
>I have no problem with this scenario as long as they do "something" with
>the pitching staff... and leaving good prospects out there to be drafted
>during the expansion draft was NOT what I had in mind.

A lot of Mets fans were lost - me included, for about five years - when they
traded Tom Seaver. The situation is slightly similar with Gooden, in that he's
a high-profile, very popular player, and with the Yankees poised to possibly
become the primary team in town if the Mutts falter in W/L or public relations.

Like reducing government spending, jettisoning Gooden may be wise but
politically disadvantageous.
-- 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joseph Aloysius McVeigh |"The world is full of articulate people who may not
   jm0i@.Lehigh.edu     | know too much, but are nonetheless perfectly willing
      "N.I.N.A."        | to make policy."                 - Philip R. Lochner
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: dkl@cs.arizona.edu (David K. Lowenthal)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Mitchell for Charlton and other trades.
Date: 20 Nov 92 17:06:23 GMT
Organization: U of Arizona CS Dept, Tucson

>In article <1992Nov20.012208.28300@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu> kstrohm@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu (Kyle W Strohm) writes:

  [..bunch of stuff about tightwad Schott...]

The place to rip the Large one is on cutting ridiculous costs, like making
scouts use pay phones.  She is a tightwad and a dumb one in that dept.

But the Reds had the 6th largest payroll last year in a small market. End of
story about not paying players.

--dave
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Mitchell for Charlton and other trades.
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1992 20:16:53 GMT

In article <ataylor.722283512@uclagsm> ataylor@agsm.ucla.edu (Al Taylor) writes:
>arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow) writes:

>>>Wait, I just re-read what you were saying.  And I'm not clear on exactly
>>>what it meant.  Are you claiming they should make Greg Briley their
>>>leadoff man?  Greg Briley, of the career .320 OBP?  Greg Briley, who put
>>>up a .290 OBP last year?  Greg Briley?

>>Sure. Briley really hasn't been given a chance to play so I think it is
>>unfair to use his .320 career OBP against him yet. Besides, their other
>>choices are to go with wasting Edgar Martinez in the #1 spot or resigning 
>>Harold Reynolds who doesn't have a much better career OBP and would stifle
>>the play of Bret Boone. Of course, they could always go out and get someone,
>>but I doubt that will happen.

>Why not Cotto? I beleive that given a full time spot in the Outfield that

Because he sucks?  He can't hit.  He doesn't walk.  He has no power.  He
doesn't get on base.

>he would make an excellent lead off man. Good batting, great speed and
>(I'm pretty sure on this) his slugging percentage was pretty close if not
>better then Buhner (over rated)-not because he hits the ball out of the
>park, but because he hits the ball more often.

Yeah, real close.  Cotto has a career 370 slugging.  Buhner has a career
470.  And Buhner gets on base more, too.  I'd rather have Buhner leading
off than Cotto/Briley.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Mike Mussina 1993 AL Cy Young Winner
niepornt@phoenix.    |------------------------------------ 
   princeton.edu     | "I still believe in a place called Hope."
Clinton/Gore '92.  Don't stop thinking about tomorrow.
From: kimmel@staff.tc.umn.edu (Eric Kimmel)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Steve Howe
Date: 22 Nov 92 15:14:49 GMT
Article-I.D.: news2.1992Nov22.151449.20652
Organization: University of Minnesota

In article <1992Nov19.103734.9761@netcom.com> arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow) writes:
>In article <92323.121833RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu writes:
>>why should baseball care whether he's a drug addict or not? if convicted
>>of some crime, drug related or not, he should serve whatever sentence
>>the judge sees fit, and then become a free agent.
>>
>Personally I care because it sends a bad message and sets a real bad precedent
>every time he gets a new chance. I don't like what it says to our children.
>I don't like the fact that the next problem case that comes around will have
>to receive the same treatment. What does this say to Otis Nixon?
>
I don't think it send a good message to completely lock out addicts and not
give them another chance to turn things around.  Beating addiction is tough
enough without having to worry about whether or not you'll get another chance.
It's like banning a computer programmer from ever programming again.  Had
Jimi Hendrix recovered from addiction would it be fair to ban him from ever
recording music again?  That's stupid.

I still think, however, that basball is handling this poorly.  Convicted
players should be suspended (for rehab, or whatever..) for a full year.  This
would certainly stop players like Howe from getting 8 chances (16 years?), but
it would still give them a second chance.

>Finally, it is real annoying to see baseball give Howe his 8th chance, when
>Pete Rose is still ineligible for the hall of fame. The logic of baseball
>always evades me.
>
Yeah, that bugs me, too (the Rose part).

>--Les

-Rick
Date: Monday, 16 Nov 1992 12:20:34 EST
From: <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: does anybody know, mark ii.

does anybody actually know how useful pitchouts are? not only how
much they improve the chance of catching a guy stealing when he is
trying to, but also how much they decrease the pitcher's ability to
get the batter out (since you're giving him a free ball), whether the
runner is going or not.

in short, has anyone done a study comparing runs scored with pitchouts
to runs scored without pitchouts, or some such? and if anyone has, could
someone post it if it's not too much trouble?

thanks.

bob vesterman.

Organization: Senior, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1992 13:57:06 -0500 
From: Amit Likhyani <al1x+@andrew.cmu.edu>
Subject: Re: Eck Wins MVP in Horrible Voting
Distribution: na

Excerpts from netnews.rec.sport.baseball: 22-Nov-92 Re: Eck Wins MVP in
Horribl.. by Jason Abner Miller@jhuvm 
> above that.  OK, Tettleton walked 122 times.  Big deal.  He bats in the

Big deal?  I wish every Pirate regular would walk 122 times.  If Jeff
King walked 122 times a year, he would actually have a following on the
net.  Why is it so hard to comprehend that on base scores runs no matter
where it comes from.
From: demers@cs.ucsd.edu (David DeMers)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Post-Draft Thoughts (was:Reaction to Rockies Draft)
Date: 20 Nov 92 21:55:44 GMT
Organization: CSE Dept., UC San Diego


In article <BxzqAn.45p@mach1.wlu.ca>, brea9430@mach1.wlu.ca (breadner kenneth cecil joseph u) writes:

|> >>2b	Bret Barberie
|> >
|> >A steal!  Quality leadoff hitter, even if he only hits .230.  He even
|> >has decent speed.
|> 
|> It is, as they say, to laugh.
|> Being a Blue Jays fan, I've always said the same about Devon White batting
|> leadoff. But nobody ever listened to me. In fact, I'd get toasted
|> regularly for it. Now, strangely enough, here's somebody saying that a
|> quality leadoff hitter can hit .230.
|> 
|> As it so happens, I agree. 

But, Barberie can hit .230 with an OBP of .380; White hits .240 with
an OBP of .290.  There's a difference...


-- 
Dave DeMers			 ddemers@UCSD   demers@cs.ucsd.edu
Computer Science & Engineering	C-014		demers%cs@ucsd.bitnet
UC San Diego					...!ucsd!cs!demers
La Jolla, CA 92093-0114	(619) 534-0688, or -8187, FAX: (619) 534-7029
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: steph@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson)
Subject: Re: Treadway (was Eck Wins MVP in Horrible Voting)
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL
Distribution: na
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1992 22:58:04 GMT

>>-- 
>>David M. Nieporent   | "If America is a Christian country because a majority
>>niepornt@phoenix.    | of the population is Christian, is it also a female 
>>   princeton.edu     | nation?  Or a white nation?"  -- Michael Kinsley,
>>Roland:Sign Treadway | to Governor Kirk Fordice of Mississippi.

>	Why?  Treadway?  The Orioles have a definite chance to sign Lou
>Whitaker this season, and even if he's going to be a stop-gap for 2 years
>until a legitimate non-Ripken 2B comes along, I'd love to see him out there.
>With Ripken losing many steps, and Gomez and Milligan being among the least
>defensive infielders out there, Jeff Treadway would be a disaster out there
>in Baltimore.  I don't see him as having any great impact on the team.

Treadway's younger, and probably cheaper.  I don't think having a second
baseman who actually gets on base would be that bad for Baltimore.

-- 
Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic

  "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not 
   overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball
From: dittrich@sal-sun57.usc.edu (Matt Dittrich)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Sandberg #2, Grace #3 (was Re: Maduux gone, Cubs alive?)
Date: 23 Nov 1992 12:44:37 -0800
Organization: University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
NNTP-Posting-Host: sal-sun57.usc.edu

arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow) writes:

[...]
 >
 >I picture a lineup of:
 >
 >______
 >Grace 1B
 >Sandberg 2B
 >_______
 >_______
 >Sosa CF
 >Duunston SS
 >Sanchez 3B
 >Pitcher

Curious that you should have Grace #2 and Sandberg #3.  I know that's what
the computers probably tell you to do, but Grace seems to hit at least 20 
points higher in the #3 spot, and I don't believe Sandberg is affected by 
position in the order.  The only year Grace hit under .300 (I think) was in
'91, when he was at #2 most of the year.  At the end they put him at #3 and
we watched the BA climb.  Sandberg scores 100 runs no matter what position 
he's in.

I'd be interested in any evidence supporting or refuting this claim.
-- 
                                                               __
Matt Dittrich    | "Well the god I believe in        |        /  `
dittrich@usc.edu |      isn't short on cash, Mister" |   GO  |  UBS
                 |       -Bono on televangelists     |        \__,
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dpm1960@tm0006.lerc.nasa.gov (snopes)
Subject: Re: Dodgers
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: Will pay money for food.
Date: 18 Nov 1992 22:52 EST  

In article <1eep1vINNhcv@mizar.usc.edu>, 
  pcaster@mizar.usc.edu (Dodger) writes...

>I agree with your comments 100%.  Kevin Gross has mostly been
>a number 4 starter AT BEST.  On the Dodgers two years ago, he
>was number 5, and lost his starting position to Orel Hershiser
>when he came back.  Gross is just a journeyman pitcher - - never
>a star and never will be IMHO.

I disagree.  Gross started out slow in his first few starts in 1991, was
heavily criticized by the fans and media before April was over with, and was
eventually dropped from the rotation in favor of a recuperating (but not a
winning) Hershiser.  I think Gross did fairly well for someone whose role on
the pitching staff changed daily.  He may not be the ace of the staff, but I
didn't see anybody on the non-protected list whom I would have kept over Gross.

 - snopes

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: b706zdj@utarlg.uta.edu (Jason Brown)
Subject: Re: Cy of Relief (Eck)
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: The University of Texas at Arlington
Distribution: world,local
Date: Mon, 16 Nov 1992 19:18:00 GMT

In article <19287@ucdavis.ucdavis.edu>, itlm013@fella.ucdavis.edu (Captain Caveman) writes...
>In article <1992Nov15.152210.24407@athena.mit.edu> cmk@athena.mit.edu (Charles M Kozierok) writes:
>>In article <1992Nov14.030013.3422@maccs.dcss.mcmaster.ca> cs3ea3ai@maccs.dcss.mcmaster.ca (Edberg '92) writes:
>>>>> Congrats to Eck.  I know that a lot of people say that relievers don't
>>>>> deserve the Cy Young, but Eck had such an incredible season that he
>>>>> deserved it.  
>>>>
>>>>I think that the voters were trying to honor Eck somehow for his past 5
>>>>years of stellar performance.  And with no dominating starter this year,
>>>>this honor came easily.
>>>
>>>I think the time has come for two awards, one for a starter
>>>and one for a reliever..
> 
> 
>They already have an award that is solely for relievers: The Rolaids
>Relief (or something like that).  Eck won it, of course, posting a record
>score.  I'm not exactly sure what the criteria are, but I seem to recall
>that you get points for Wins and Saves, and lose points for Losses and
>Blown Saves.
> 
>>another good idea would be an award specifically for non-pitchers like
>>the cy young is for pitchers. that way we could avoid the incessant
>>arguments about whether or not a pitcher should win the MVP. you could
>>have an award (or awards) for best pitcher, one (or more?) for best
>>hitter, and finally, MVP, which could truly be the "most valuable"
>>player, either pitcher or not.
>>
>>i wonder why there is no batting equivalent of the cy young...
> 
>There are two awards for non-pitchers: the gold glove and the silver
>slugger.  They are awarded for each position.  The Slugger is, I believe,
>a fairly new award (less than three years).
> 
>However, I doubt that any individual award will ever attain the merit
>of the "MVP" or "Cy Young" awards.  It's nice to know who the best hitting
>second baseman, or the best defensive first baseman are, but people
>will always be interested in who is the best all-around player.
> 
>Dennis Cleary
>dfcleary@ucdavis.edu

>> How 'bout a award for the best relief pitcher? Cy Yound Award could be 
   restricted to just SP, after all Cy was a starter, and the RPs could
   be awarded the Hoyt Wilhelm award, arguably the best reliever of his day.
   Just a thought--
From: snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Baseball-the business side?
Date: 18 Nov 92 17:32:03 GMT
Article-I.D.: adobe.1992Nov18.173203.24967
Organization: Adobe Systems Incorporated

In article <1992Nov18.131434.26086@abo.fi> MLINDROOS@finabo.abo.fi (Marcus Lindroos INF) writes:
>Does anyone know if major league baseball teams reveal their budgets to the
>public or is this classified information? I am curious to find out where the
>money goes, how much the players and employees (everyone from the GM to the
>marketing people) get, what the main sources of income are etc.. 

Baseball teams, like most corporations, guard the details of their finances
as closely as possible.  Occasionally, for one reason or another, we get
peeks at part of the information.  There's a recent book, _Baseball and
Billions_, by Andrew Zimbalist, that takes a look at how baseball finances
work that has some of the numbers, including a balance sheet for the
Pirates of a few years ago.  

Sherri Nichols
snichols@adobe.com
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: cazuzek@lims02.lerc.nasa.gov (Zuzek, John E.)
Subject: Re: creative managing
Summary: Another idea
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: NASA Lewis Research Center
Distribution: usa
Date: 17 Nov 1992 13:18 EST  

In article <BxtI46.9u5@deshaw.com>, baseggio@deshaw.com (Franco Baseggio) writes...
>What about a lefty-righty reliever combo where they can both play
>left-field?  Has a pitcher ever been moved to a non-pitching position
>and then back again?  

Gosh, yes!  National League teams have put a pitcher in, say, right field 
and brought in another pitcher to face a batter, and then moved the first 
pitcher back in.  I seem to recall Whitey Herzog doing this with the Cards 
using Todd Worrell as the pitcher/outfielder.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
John Zuzek                         |"The federal government is basically
NASA Lewis Research Center         | one enormous, ongoing Meeting From
-----------------------------------| Hell"  
cazuzek@lims01.lerc.nasa.gov       |                        -- Dave Barry
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: demers@cs.ucsd.edu (David DeMers)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Cubs D & 1993 NL Final Standings
Keywords: Cubs, Maddux
Date: 22 Nov 92 23:00:08 GMT
Organization: CSE Dept., UC San Diego


In article <1992Nov22.213922.187@noose.ecn.purdue.edu>, ts@chainsaw.ecn.purdue.edu (Thomas Ruschak) writes:
|> In article <1992Nov22.175727.25731@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
|> >
|> >Except that he posted that 2.18 in Wrigley.  With the Cubs' defense.  He could
|> >take that to the Astrodome or Dodger Stadium and have a 1.70 ERA.
|> >
|> 	The Cubs are brainless, but they had a good defense last year.
|> Grace at 1b is very good (GG not withstanding). Sandberg is still above 
|> average by a bit. Sanchez/Viscaino are both at least average fielders.
|> Buechele, regardless of his offensive shortcomings, has always had a 
|> good defensive rep, and looked decent this year, and probably is at
|> least average, if not above. All in all, I'd call the Cub's D good.
|> (Anyone got some numbers?)

Yeah, but not with me.  But, the Cubs' problems aren't pitching
and defense.  Maddux & Morgan and the D were, er, just fine.
The starting staff isn't deep enough, but 20+ other teams can
say the same thing. Cubbies just don't score enough runs.  
Sandberg is really about the only good offense they have. 
Grace is adequate, Dawson is just adequate now.  Everyone else is awful.
I don't really see a lot of hope.  Dunston's return will only
help a little - he has the dreaded Cub Disease (sub .300 OBP)
and his power isn't enough to pull him up to being actually GOOD.
Though it will be an improvement over Vizcaine/Sanchez.

Cubbies are my preseason pick for worst in the NL East.  Marlins
will beat them.

Oh, what the heck - 1993 final NL standings, brought to you today:

East
------
Montreal
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
St Louis
New York
Miami (can't bring myself to call them "Florida", sorry)
Chicago

West
------
Atlanta
Cincinnati
San Diego
Houston
LA
San Francisco
Denver (see above)

Dave


-- 
Dave DeMers			 ddemers@UCSD   demers@cs.ucsd.edu
Computer Science & Engineering	C-014		demers%cs@ucsd.bitnet
UC San Diego					...!ucsd!cs!demers
La Jolla, CA 92093-0114	(619) 534-0688, or -8187, FAX: (619) 534-7029
From: bdangelo@opal.tufts.edu (Barbara J. D'Angelo)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Red Sox mailing list
Date: 20 Nov 92 21:50:00 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: Tufts University - Medford, MA
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

In article <9211200917.AA09421@epona>, G.R.Price@cm.cf.ac.uk (G Price) writes...
>Could someone mail me any information on any Red Sox mailing lists in existence
> 
>Cheers 
>Gwyn

Me too, please.
bdangelo@opal.tufts.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Can Dunston really hit? (was Re: Maduux gone, Cubs alive?)
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1992 22:20:06 GMT

In article <1erf5sINNf7g@sal-sun57.usc.edu> dittrich@sal-sun57.usc.edu (Matt Dittrich) writes:
>
>Does anyone else out there think that Dunston's hitting last year (.316?) was
>a sign of things to come?  That '92 may have been the year that he starts 
>Living Up To His Potential?  He seemed to really have a bit of control at 
>the plate;  it wasn't just that the balls were dropping into the holes for
>him.
>
>Or maybe it's just me.  sigh.

I'm inclined to be skeptical.  Dunston is hardly a kid any longer.
Dunson *may* have managed to turn his career around.  But I'd be
inclined to apply Occam's Razor, and assume that Dunston hasn't
essentially changed, and was merely slightly hot for a few weeks.

A much more likely explanation.

-Valentine
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball