From: zubair@venus.ycc.yale.edu
Subject: Sri Lanka 2025 : A preferable Scenario
Organization: Yale Computer Center (YCC)
Date: 18 Dec 92 21:02:36 EDT

			Sri Lanka 2025: Preferable
			==========================

In the last decade of the 20th century, Sri Lanka society was transformed in
several ways. First, a growing disillusionment with the government 
and an expanded worldview brought about citizen involvement and oversight of 
environmental, cultural and  economic activities of the government.  This 
grassroots movement was helped by the extensive devolution of
power. Another positive development was the disillusionment of the lower ranks
of the military at the disparity between the war rhetoric of the government 
and its continued  indifference to the plight of the soldiers. The military 
led the drive towards a settlement. 

Anger, grief and frustration along with the availability of cultural 
material led to a seemingly tendentious cultural renaissance amongst the youth. 
There was a rededication to the fundamentals of the four religious faiths. 
Surprisingly these diverse cultural movements brought about popular awareness 
and appreciation of the values, history, conditions and grievances of 
others.  The majority of this ``cultural elite'' too ended up working
 for a settlement for partisan reasons. 


Two demographic trends, male war casualties and female longevity left a 
population which was preponderantly female. Women who were involved in 
the ``Mothers front'' to retrace missing children had since become politically
empowered. 40 % of members of parliament were women. The new female 
legislators had brought a sense of compromise, a different understanding of 
history and of the virtues of war. The parliament had  pushed for 
serious negotiations in 1994. 


State military activity had largely been curtailed to the protection of
citizens in the border areas in the North and East since 1994. Without the
fear of state atrocities, and with the lack of basic supplies, 
the Tamil population which had hitherto supported the Tigers became 
indifferent. The pool of recruits diminished. Internal dissension
which was ruthlessly quelled, sapped the vitality of the organization.
Those Tamils living inside the country became amenable to a a settlement. 


A settlement was finally instituted by the International Court at the Hague. 
New provincial councils was established. Since then United Nations 
Peace-Keeping forces were deployed until elections were held in 1999. The 
peace was fragile and the grievances were many. Yet, in spite of much anger 
at the ``partisanship'' of the Peace-Keepers, the peace was largely kept. 


The population has reached 19 million. A projection of 21 million persons 
was made in 1990. However many of those desiring children had adopted the
orphans and the destitute of the war. The number of jobs has increased 
from 4 million in 1990 to 7 million. The growth in jobs came from
judicious technological growth in software manufacture, protected local
industries, fishing and aquaculture. The total labor force had risen to 9 
million of whom 22% were unemployed. The national debt kept increasing from 
US $ 5 billion in 1992 to US $10 billion at the turn of the  century. Most 
loans were written off. 

The refugee population has begun to move back to their original homesteads.
The refugee population had dropped from 1 million in 1992 to around 100,000 
by 1999. International resettlement aid had helped them settle. 
The run down infrastructure in the North and East was developed by capital and
know-how of the expatriate Tamils. The Indian Tamils have seen some improvement
in their conditions. 


The forest cover has diminished to 15% of the land. Aggressive environmental
protection and reforestation provide some hope that the remaining forests can
be preserved. Alternative energy, particularly from agricultural wastes has
provided some of the rural energy needs. The school as well as the health care 
system is under extreme stress. Indigenous herbal remedies have become popular. 



Newsgroups: soc.culture.sri-lanka