From: hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU (Brad Hernlem)
Subject: Re: Meeting on high tech. import to iran???
Reply-To: hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU (Brad Hernlem)
Organization: North Carolina State University
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1992 19:05:20 GMT

In article <sehari.722418713@vincent1.iastate.edu>, sehari@iastate.edu
(Babak Sehari) writes:
> In <92326.111308U33720@uicvm.uic.edu> Fardad        
<U33720@uicvm.uic.edu> writes:
> 
> >Hello friends;
> 
> > Does any one know about the decisions/proceedings of the meeting recently
> >held in Germany by U.S. , FRANCE, ... to discuss High tech. exports of
> >Japan and Germany to IRAN?
> 
> >Fardad
> 
> I have received some news about this; however, taking such action
> would hurt them much more than Iran.  Iran just will find another
> supplier, which is not that hard in this economic condition of the
> world.  Just imagine taking $8B/year out of German economy, would create
> such big problem in German economy at the current condition, and they
> would blame it on the US.  This would create problems in Germany that
> might even lead to violence between the European countries.  On the other
> hand taking similar amount out of Japanese economy would create a big
> recession in Japan, which in turn deepen recession in the US.
> 
> All this happens if Iran does not take any action, which is very unlikely.
> Iran would swing the oil production, and might take other actions.  This
> increases the oil prices sharply, which even worsen the problem for western
> countries.
> 
> It's effects on Iran would be minor, in the worst case. Like Iranian nuclear
> power plants, that the business just went somewhere else, at even cheaper
> prices. 
> 
> I think US is jealous that they can not get business from Iran that 
> would have been a big help to their own problems. Just imagine up to
> $7B/year could have gone to US businesses. That would have meant reduction
> in their trade deficit and could create a large number of manufacturing
> jobs.  They do not understand, it is to their best interest that they take 
> their profits/losses at this point and acknowledge Iran as regional power.
> This gives them a great opportunity to negotiate directly with Iran, similar
> to China.

I don't think that there is any jealousy involved here. U.S. exports to
Iran have risen drastically in the last few years and could rise even
higher if the U.S. government would relax restrictions. U.S. businesses
might be jealous because their competitors are not faced with an
oppressive government preventing free trade but I don't think that there
is any jealousy because of the non-availability of Iranian markets due
to competition. The U.S. is already in a favorable position with respect
to Iran. Imports from Iran are heavily restricted while we currently
export 1-1.5 $billion in goods annually to Iran. Admittedly, Iran is
ripe for investment and is a far safer option than many other countries
because of its broad base of resources and labor and its growing
economy, but the current U.S. policy leads to a trade surplus with
respect to Iran even without taking advantage of a more open trade
relationship with Iran. 

> Stupid policies had led to problems in Vietnam, Soviet Union, China and 
> Cuba, in the past.  Oh, well; history might repeat itself.  I wonder what
> might happen in case of a real war? Oil wells in the S. Arabia, Iran,
and all 
> the Persian gulf countries go up in the flames once again?  How many people
> would get killed this time?  How much economic damage would this cause, to
> the world economy?  Will there be a real winner this time, or just many big
> losers all over the world?  This leaves China as the only real superpower in
> the world, as it has been prophecized.  Are we really approaching the end of 
> the world?  The answer depends on if next president could stand up against
> special interests and PACs in Washington.
> 
>                             With highest regards,
>                                  Babak   Sehari.
> -- 

Brad Hernlem (hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU)