Organization: Central Michigan University
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.seasia-l
Date:         Tue, 25 Aug 1992 16:46:46 EDT
From:         Elliott Parker <3ZLUFUR@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
Subject:      TH: Poll suggests sweep for Palang Dharma
X-To:         seasia-l@msu.edu

=======================  Forwarded  Message  ===========================
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 92 00:24:00+0700
From: kamol@munnari.oz.au (Kamol Hengkietisak)

Post-Ramkhamhaeng poll suggests clean sweep for Palang Dharm

     PRACHAKORN Thai leader Samak Sundaravej is trailing fourth
and may fail to win re-election while the Palang Dharma Party
appears poised to win at least 32 seats in Bangkok on September
13, according to the results of a Bangkok Post-commissioned
election survey.
     The poll also shows that Aphisit Vejjajiva of the Democrats
appears to be the only candidate certain of breaking the Palang
Dharma stronghold in the city.
     The survey, conducted by Ramkhamhaeng University's
Independent Research Group from August 8 to 10, finds Palang
Dharma could win as many as 34 out of 35 seats in Bangkok.
     In the March general election, the Post-Ramkhamhaeng survey
came closest to predicting the results of the election in Bangkok.
     The Post-Ramkhamhaeng poll predicted that Palang Dharma would
win 33 seats in Bangkok. Palang Dharma won 32 seats.
     The poll cautions, however, that there are two constituencies
in which results could change as campaigning enters the home
stretch in the final week.
     Although Mr Samak is now fourth, trailing Palang Dharma's
Sansern Thirasarn who is third in Constituency 1, the military
vote remains crucial and could help the Prachakorn Thai leader
overcome the deficit.
     According to poll results in Constituency 1, in which 2,466
questionnaires were distributed, Mr Samak is trailing Mr Sansern
in popularity by about 14 percentage points.
     In the poll, Mr Samak's popularity is 29.68% compared with Mr
Sansern's 43.96%.
     Palang Dharma's Col Vinai Sompong, who came second behind Mr
Samak in March, topped the popularity poll in this constituency by
gaining 56.65%.
     Although trailing third in Constituency 8 where there are
only two seats available, Democrat candidate Pramote Sukhum may be
able to win a seat, the poll finds.
     Mr Pramote is trailing Palang Dharma's Sompot Piya-oui in
popularity by a mere seven percentage points.
     A total of 24,176 questionnaires were distributed for the
three-day survey.
     A total of 73.4% of respondents credit Palang Dharma's
Maj-Gen Chamlong Srimuang with playing the most important role in
the ouster of former prime minister Suchinda Kraprayoon.
     He is followed by New Aspiration leader Gen Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh (5.5%), Democrat leader Chuan Leekpai (5.3%), former
Solidaader Boon6%), and  Party leader Uthai Pimchachon (0.5%).
     A total of 14.8% of respondents credit "others" for the
ouster of Gen Suchinda.
     Asked whether they agree with the role of the four former
opposition parties during the May events and whether they will
recommend that their friends vote for these parties, 59.8% said
they agree and will make the recommendation.
     But 40.2% said they will not make the recommendation.
     Asked who is most suited as prime minister following the May
events, 38% named Maj-Gen Chamlong.
     Democrat leader Chuan comes second with 26.6%, followed by
Chart Pattana leader Gen Chatichai Choonhavan with 9.8%.
     Ranked fourth is Gen Chavalit with 5.7%, Seritham leader Dr
Arthit Urairat with 4.9% and Mr Samak with 3.6%.
     In this question under the category of "others" most suited
to be prime minister, 11.4% wrote down the name of Prime Minister
Anand Panyarachun.
     This makes Mr Anand the third most popular person for prime
minister even though he is not running for office.
     Asked which party they will back in the elections, 47.4%
named Palang Dharma, 23.8% said the Democrats and 7.8% said
Prachakorn Thai.
     About 6.4% (1,539) said they will mix their votes.
     Only 2.7% of the respondents said they will vote for New
Aspiration while 2.3% back Seritham and 1.8% said they will vote
for Muan Chon.
     Some 7.6% said they will vote for "other parties."
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