HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: roney@selkirk.sfu.ca (Chris J. Roney)
Subject: Re: Change the game?
Organization: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 1993 02:19:54 GMT

Greg Ridsdale <greg_ridsdale@ausqm1.sps.mot.com> writes:


>I am in favor of either no DH or both leagues using the DH.  The current
>system is awkward for both teams in the Series and the All star game.  

(stuff deleted)

     It is awkward, but at the same time, most people don`t seem to
want to give up the system their favorite league currently has.  For
example, I would be bitterly dissapointed if "my" league, the AL gave
up the d.h.  Most N.L. fans I know seem to feel just as strongly about
adding the D.H. to their league.  Given that, I wonder if the
imbalance is really so bad.  This way there is something for everyone.-- 
Chris Roney  (e-mail chris_roney@sfu.ca)
From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Jeff Kent
Date: 25 Jan 93 17:14:02 GMT
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago

In article <1993Jan25.155820.9014@sni.ca> dave@snitor.sni.ca (Dave Till) writes:
>The Jays gave up Mauro Gozzo, Steve Cummings, Willie Blair, Glenallen Hill,
>Mark Whiten, Denis Boucher, Ryan Thompson and Jeff Kent to acquire their
>various Rent-a-Pitchers.  Of these, only Whiten has a chance to be a
>significant major league player.  (Thompson is a marginal prospect, and
>Kent will be lucky to hit .230 in Shea.  Sorry about that, Mets fans.)

I disagree about Jeff Kent.  Sure, he won't hit much higher than .230,
but he'll hit .230.  Second, it's a pretty loud .230 -- nearly half of
his hits are for extra bases, and he walks a fair amount.  There aren't
*that* many middle infielders/third-basemen that can pull off a 740 OPS,
with potential to improve.  His defense needs a bit of work, but I
wouldn't object to having him on my team.  I don't have his MLE's, nor his
age, but assuming he was 24 last year, his Brock2's comes out to 190 career
HR with a peak OPS of 846.  (If he was 25 in 1992, he peaks at 829 with
132 career HR.)  Not a superstar by any means, but even Dave Tate would
find Kent to have value.

Brock2 progress report:  
Griffey at the end of 1991 was expected to finish with
3221 H, 629 DB, 417 HR, career OPS of 861, 3126 G.  It predicted a
slight decline to a 873 OPS for 1992.
After this year:
For 1992, Griffey underperformed his OBA by 20 points, but outperformed his
predicted SLG by a good 41.  His career prediction dropped dramatically for
walks, but everything else went up.  Now it's:
3493 H, 731 DB, 501 HR, career OPS of 864, 3277 G.  I must say I was
surprised -- I had gotten the impression that Griffey had had not such a
great year for some reason, when he really exceeded expectations.  Anyway,
Brock2 predicts a 1993 of 322/389/545, followed by 6 years of slugging at
.550.

Frank Thomas: 
Pred at end of      G    H    HR    BA/OBA/SLG   
1990             2763 2582   295   301/432/473
1991             2875 2831   481   302/433/515
1992             2873 2872   410   300/421/496
He's also predicted to have 2008 walks.  
-- 
ted frank                     | thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu 
standard disclaimers          | void where prohibited
the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
From: rsmith@strobe.ATC.Olivetti.Com (Russ Smith)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Those Silly Jints
Date: 28 Jan 93 23:07:07 GMT
Organization: Olivetti ATC; Cupertino CA, USA

In article <C1L1s0.92J@dartvax.dartmouth.edu> Timothy.J.Young@dartmouth.edu (Timothy J. Young) writes:
>What they should have done is to lead off with a guy like Mike Felder,
>bat McGee second, Clark third, Bonds fourth, Thompson fifth, and
>Williams sixth. This way Thompson can bat behind Bonds (better than
>whoever else it was they planned on putting behind him - whoever was in
>LF,SS, or C) who had a '92 OBA of .456, a fact most people forget when
>they label him "RBI man". There's less pressure on Williams, less
>intentional walks for Clark and Bonds, a better role for Thompson, and
>so on. 

I dont even like the Giants but what the hell. The problem as I see it
with hitting Williams cleanup is he has shown the last 2 years he cannot
hit there. Yes he is a low average, never walk hitter in general, but
when he bats cleanup "it appears to me" that he is even worse. williams
himself has said he does not like to hit there, and the Giants the last
2 years have removed him from the spot saying he was really struggling
because hitting there put so much pressure on him(if you know anything
about Matt, he is supposedly lacking in selfconfidence and always 
fighting himself). Whethere you believe in intangibles or not, if for
2 years in a row a guy struggles terribly and asks to be removed from
the cleanup spot, why would you put him back there? Matt took a lot of
heat last year from the media here for "choking" as the cleanup hitter,
even though local hero Will Clark has steadfastly refused to hit cleanup
himself for the same exact reasons.

If I were Baker, I would bat Bonds 3rd(best hitter on the team and more
at bats) and Clark 4th and Mattanywhere from 5th to 7th depending on
who else ends up starting for them.


>On to the pitching. Why would Swift not be in the rotation?  They need
>him there ; that's where the Giants never seem to have enough people.
>Their bullpen may be OK but SF is short on starters.

No offense, but were you paying attention last year? Before the season
started, some of the "stat heads" on this group were wondering why
Craig would start Swift knowing his past history of arm trouble. Well
after a great start, guess what, Swift hurt his arm and had I believe
2 stints on the DL resting it. Eventually Craig put him in the bullpen
where he was fine the rest of the way.

Yes in a perfect world, Swift would be more valuable to the Giants as a
starter, but in reality, which would you prefer, Swift in the bullpen
for a full year, or Swift in the rotation for 2/3 of the year with the
rest of the time spent on the DL?



Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: 1993 MLB WS odds
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Distribution: na
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1993 21:12:51 GMT

In article <C19C5G.4Fw@watserv1.uwaterloo.ca> dmeister@mansci1.UWaterloo.ca (Darren Meister) writes:
>
>Just thought that I would convert these to divisions (assuming that the
>lower the odds, the higher that team is expected to place in the divsion).
>I might be interesting to have this as the Las Vegas entry in the annual
>pick the divisions contest.
>
>AL East			AL West
>Toronto			Chicago
>Milwaukee			Oakland
>Baltimore			Minnesota
>New York			Texas
>Cleveland			Kansas City
>Boston				Seattle
>Detroit			California
>
>NL East			NL West
>Montreal			Atlanta
>NY Mets			Cincinnati
>St. Louis			San Diego	
>Chicago			Los Angeles
>Pittsburgh			Houston
>Philadelphia			San Francisco
>Florida			Colorado

More or less reasonable picks.  I wouldn't put Toronto or Milwaukee
quite so high, and I would put the Yankees higher.  I think the Red
Sox are likely to finish above the Indians, but less likely to finish
first.  The West seems reasonable.  Perhaps Oakland is a bit high, but
not incredibly much so.  I think the Mets and Dodgers are also ranged
a bit high, and I don't think the Cubs will be that good, but none of
them are ridiculously far off.

-Valentine
From: molinari@hilbert.coe.northeastern.edu (Bert Molinari)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Drn Jackson trade???
Keywords: trade
Date: 28 Jan 93 19:33:47 GMT
Organization: CDSP Computing Lab, Northeastern University

In article <thom.728216879@well.sf.ca.us> thom@well.sf.ca.us (Thom Rogers) writes:
>
>BW quotes SD GM as maybe trading Darren Jackson if some current arbitrations
>(including Jackson's) go thru.  Normally I'd discount this as negotiation
>talk, but I seem to recall hearing a similar rumor earlier this off season.
>
>With Darrell Sherman in the wings and much cheaper and after a good winter
>ball showing the prospect of trading Jackson seems very realistic to me.
>Does anyone have any hard info on this situation?  Or opinions?
>

the red sox were interested in acquiring jackson earlier this winter, terms
or players were never discussed.  i guess the sox are less interested in
jackson now that they're considering resigning herm winningham 8-( as their
backup cf.

later,

bert
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: franjion@spot.Colorado.EDU (John Franjione)
Subject: Re: Cecil signs : -( :-( :-(
Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 23:54:20 GMT

grabiner@math.harvard.edu (David Grabiner) writes:

>I don't believe this is true, though.  The value of a player to your
>team does not depend on standard deviations; it depends on the number of
>games he helps your team win and lose.  If you trade a shortstop who
>slugs 50 points better than average and an average first baseman for an
>average shortstop and a first baseman who slugs 50 points better than
>average, your team will still score the same number of runs.  Since you
>break even on the trade, you must have traded players of the same value.

I think I disagree with this.  Yes, a player contributes the same
amount offensively regardless of his position (and also regardless of
the distribution of performances at that position).  But his value, in
terms of what you would be willing to pay in order to acquire that
player, should depend on the distribution.

[Note: the following example might not be very realistic]

I'm going to put players' performances in terms of runs relative to an
average player at that position.  Say that zero (0) runs is an average
performance for that position.  Let's say that among firstbasemen, the
"standard deviation" of the distribution of performances is 50 runs
(over the course of a season).  In contrast, suppose that the StD of the
distribution for shortstops is only 10 runs.  That is, more shortstops
are closer to average than firstbasemen.

Let's look at two teams
	 A	 B
----------------------------
1b	+50	  0
ss	  0	+50

In terms of contributing to wins, both teams are identical.  However, I
think that team B is "worth" more.  One simple way to measure worth is
to normalize runs by the StD at that position.  Thus, team A is worth
1, but team B is worth 5.  Intuitively, this makes sense to me too.
Because the StD for shortstops is lower than for firstbasemen, it would
be more difficult to replace a +50 shortstop than a +50 firstbaseman.

John Franjione
From: rickert@NeXTwork.Rose-Hulman.Edu (John H. Rickert)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Expos/Brewers Trade
Date: 22 Jan 1993 21:54:29 GMT
Organization: Computer Science Department at Rose-Hulman
Reply-To: rickert@NeXTwork.Rose-Hulman.Edu (John H. Rickert)
NNTP-Posting-Host: g215a-1.nextwork.rose-hulman.edu

In article <1jp47bINNs8@uwm.edu> paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger)  
writes:
>    Milwaukee just gave up infielder Charlie Montoyo and 1B Oreste Marrero
>    for OF Todd Samples and P Ron Gerstein. Anyone have info on these guys?
>    About all I know is that Marrero played at Beloit (or was it El Paso)
>    with two of his brothers on the same team. 
> 
>    Any info would be appreciated,

Oreste Vilato Marrero used to be a teammate of his twin brother Vilato Oreste  
Marreo. VO has gone by the wayside. Montoyo became one of my favorite Brewer  
minor leaguers when he drew 156 walks for Stockton in 1988.

Marrero: 18G at El Paso .185/.237/.315
	76G at Stockton .276/.388/.432
 1991: 123G@Stktn  .251/.333/.384
 1990: 119G@Beloit .275/.348/.488
Marrero is 24 this year and plays 1b. 
He's no Matt Mieske.

Montoyo: 84G at Denver .324/.429/.405
  1991: 120G@Denv  .239/.356/.368
  1990: 94G@ElP  .289/.428/.376
Montoyo is 27 this year and plays 2b
1992MLE: .283/.371/.336
1991MLE: .204/.297/.297

Samples: 117G at Rockford (class A) .239/.292/.341
  1991: 130G@Sumter(class A) .259/.326/.412
STATS lists his age as 23

Gerstein: 33G 51IP @Rockford 5GS. 4-8 5.65 40K/28BB 62H 
	37Runs 5WP 3Bk 5svs
  1991: 7G 9.1IP@Sumter 0-1 0.00 6K/5BB 5H 1Run
STATS lists his age as 24

Looks to me like the only `non-trivial' player in the group is Montoyo who  
might be an OK backup for a few years (as he goes into decline...)

john rickert
rickert@nextwork.rose-hulman.edu
Molitor, Marrero, Monotoyo... Does Bando have something against the 
letter M? (If so he's in the wrong town...)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: thom@well.sf.ca.us (Thom Rogers)
Subject: Drn Jackson trade???
Summary: ? on San Diego OF D Jackson
Keywords: trade
Organization: Whole Earth 'Lectronic Link
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1993 10:27:59 GMT


BW quotes SD GM as maybe trading Darren Jackson if some current arbitrations
(including Jackson's) go thru.  Normally I'd discount this as negotiation
talk, but I seem to recall hearing a similar rumor earlier this off season.

With Darrell Sherman in the wings and much cheaper and after a good winter
ball showing the prospect of trading Jackson seems very realistic to me.
Does anyone have any hard info on this situation?  Or opinions?

Thanks

Thom
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: smm0264@ritvax.isc.rit.edu
Subject: Re: Where is the '93 All-star game???
Reply-To: smm0264@ritvax.isc.rit.edu
Organization: Rochester Institute of Technology
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 17:24:50 GMT

It's in Baltimore.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sean M Morrison                      The most exciting phrase to hear in
                                     science, the one that heralds the most
                                     discoveries, is not "Eureka!" (I have
                                     found it!) but "That's funny..."
smm0264@ritvax.isc.rit.edu              -Isaac Asimov
smm0264@ultb.isc.rit.edu
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Only statheads are ever rude...
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 21:25:03 GMT


Yeah, right...

>    Later, you don't know much about baseball.  kiss off.

So I am sometimes rude.  Don't give me shit about it, because I get
twice as much as I give.

-Valentine
From: stvjas@meteor.wisc.edu (Stephen Jascourt)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Tom Tippett and Defensive Average
Date: 23 Jan 93 23:40:08 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of Wisconsin, Meteorology and Space Science

Sherri writes:
  The last two years, the data has been collected by Gillette, who has paid
  his scorekeepers some amount per game.  The data has been collected using
  the same format as the Project data, and using the same software.  That
  software was written by David (my husband) and Tom Tippett, known to some
  of you as the author of PC Baseball, also known as the computer version of
  Pursue the Pennant.  In exchange for a license to use that software,
  Gillette grants Tom and David commercial licenses to the data he collects,
  which is why I'm able to continue the DA stuff.

Does this mean Tippett is aware of DA? The range ratings he assigned for PTP
the past several years have been abominable, both compared to DA and the
subjective judgements of astute observers, but this year's ratings look
pretty good. Do you (Sherri or Dr. Dave or anyone else) know how he came up
with range ratings in the past and what he did differently this year? 

Stephen Jascourt   stvjas@meteor.wisc.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank)
Subject: Re: Bill James help
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago
Distribution: na
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1993 00:44:31 GMT

In article <C182un.CC4@news2.cis.umn.edu> lsmith@mega.cs.umn.edu (Lance "Squiddie" Smith) writes:
>Does anyone need a copy of the 1984, 1985 or 1988 Bill James Abstracts?

I don't, but just to put in a good word here, the 1985 Abstract is probably
one of the best ones.  It gives the Brock2 method, introduces Major League
Equivalencies, analysis of the Hall of Fame, and comparisons of some of the
top teams of the 1961-1984 period.

-- 
ted frank                     | thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu 
standard disclaimers          | void where prohibited
the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
From: genzuk@mizar.usc.edu (Michael Genzuk)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: The Straw Man
Date: 27 Jan 1993 09:00:07 -0800
Organization: University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
Distribution: na
NNTP-Posting-Host: mizar.usc.edu

Strawberry is alive and well according to friends of mine that saw him
workout at Dodger Stadium.  The Dodgers anually have an open workout and
friends of mine that attended said that Darryl looked both strong and fit.
He says that he has something to prove to the fans and to Dodger 
management.  If he indeed is healthy, and Eric Davis also, it would be
an interesting year for Dodger Blue in spite of their lack of left
handed pitching and weak bullpen.

Keep the faith Dodger Blue....

Michael, a true Dodger Blue Trojan
From: chee1l5@Jane.UH.EDU (sam lane)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: 1993 MLB WS odds
Date: 21 Jan 1993 20:28:32 GMT
Organization: University of Houston
Distribution: na
Reply-To: chee1l5@Jane.UH.EDU
NNTP-Posting-Host: jane.uh.edu

In article <1993Jan21.185547.17767@cs.cornell.edu>, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>In article <1993Jan21.132431.24404@jarvis.csri.toronto.edu> marwood@csri.toronto.edu (Simon J. Marwood) writes:
>>
>>
>>The following odds chart appeared today in the Toronto Star, and represents
>>the odds listed by the Flamingo Hotel sports book in Laughlin, Nev. The
>>odds represent the odds to win the 1993 WS:
>
>And Roger wonders why statheads don't gamble?  If the game is fair,
>then the odds should sum to 1.  The odds listed sum to about 2.
>Double the payback on all of the below bets, and it should be easy
>enough to make money...  But when they are stacked 2:1 against you?
>
>Cheers,
>-Valentine
>

Agreed, the odds are certainly stacked against you as a whole (I had just 
totalled them up myself and was about to post), but that doesn't mean there 
aren't some resonable bets among them. For example, if you bet on only 
Atlanta		3:1
Montreal	8:1
Baltimore	10:1

Then you're getting 9 to 5 odds to cover 3 of the 4 (IMO) division winners.

Just a thought.

Houston at 20 to 1 looks good for a long shot.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sam Lane         ~ If I could just play ping pong...just think of the babes. 
Univ.of Houston  ~ 
Dept.of Chem.Eng.~ Sole member of the Bob Horner fan club.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From: fierkelab@bchm.biochem.duke.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Braves Bullpen (was Braves signings)
Date: 28 Jan 93 00:20:01 GMT
Organization: Biochemistry

You know, between Mercker, Stanton, and Wohlers, you would think you ought to
be able to find a set-up man and a closer.  So why is Schuerholtz dinking
around with Bedrosian, Howell, and whomever else who might be over 35 and/or
suffering from blown-out arms?

Well, at least he's not signing these guys to major league contracts...yet...


Eric Roush			Deck us all with Boston Charlie
fierkelab@			Walla Walla Wash and Kalamazoo!
bchm.biochem.duke.edu	Nora's freezin' on the Trolley,
				Swaller Dollar Cauliflower Alla-ga-Roo!

				Walt Kelley
From: hbrooks@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu (Harold_Brooks)
Subject: Re: Cardinals
Organization: NSSL
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 22:54:59 GMT

In article <81089@hydra.gatech.EDU> gt0317c@prism.gatech.EDU (BHANSALI,ANIL P) writes:
>Assuming the Kruk for Zeile does go down, how would the lineup look?
>
>My guess is this:
>
>2B G. Pena
>SS Ozzie
>1b Kruk
>RF Felix Jose
>CF Lankford
>LF Gilkey
>3b Royer or Woodson
>C Pagnozzi
>P 
>
>Anyone have any thoughts?  This is going to be the year if this trade
>goes down.

The year for what?  The year I finally get around to putting My Pal Dal
out of his misery.  (You know, Huckabay, automatic weapons are probably
more effective than strangulation, but they're so much more impersonal.)
Although I can't imagine what in the world the Phillies would be thinking
to go along with that deal, from the Cardinal perspective, I don't see
the point.  Acquiring Kruk--fine.  It takes care of the first base 
problem.   (I'd rather see them get Maurer, who would undoubtedly be
cheaper, but that's another thread).  Trading Zeile to get Kruk seems
strange.  (I know, I know, what do I expect?)  For the past several
years, oddly coincident with Dal Maxvill's tenure, the Cardinal approach
to player acquistion, evaluation, etc. has been reminiscent of a blinded
Frankenstein's monster, wandering around the countryside, bumping into 
things and wreaking havoc.  There's been no pattern to the behavior.
The whole mess surrounding everything involving Todd Zeile has been
sad to watch.  They've taken someone who had the chance to be a very 
good major league catcher, perhaps one of the best in franchise history,
and turned into an average or below average third baseman.  In the 
meantime, players are being acquired that play positions they're moving
Zeile to (e.g., Royer) and...I can't go on.  It's just too painful.

Say, my wife has a high school reunion this year and she graduated with
one of Dal's sons.  Maybe there'll be a family gathering.  With all 
those people around, no one will ever suspect....

Harold
-- 
Harold Brooks                    hbrooks@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu
National Severe Storms Laboratory (Norman, OK)
"I used to work for a brewery, too, but I didn't drink on the job."
-P. Bavasi on Dal Maxvill's view that Florida can win the NL East in '93
From: hobbs@cs.wvu.wvnet.edu (Gerald R Hobbs)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Replacement value vs average
Summary: Sometimes it matters
Date: 26 Jan 93 14:44:40 GMT
Article-I.D.: cerc.C1GuAI.CD1
Organization: Concurrent Engineering Research Center


*The current discussion of Average vs Replacement level is sort of like
*asking "Which is a better measure of how warm it is, Fahrenheit or Kelvin?"****
*
*Both measure the same thing, but the scale is just different.  Which is 
*better depends on your perspective.  For most Americans, 100 F is recognizably
*hot while not all would realize that 100 K is significantly colder (I realize
*this is extreme for the present case, but I hope you get the idea).  On the
*other hand, if one is interested in doing thermodynamics, only the Kelvin
*scale will work in this case.
*
*To say that one can't tell a players 'value' by comparing them to averagee
*is like saying you can't tell how hot something is by reading the temperature
*in fahrenheit...
*
*just my thoughts (scattered though they be)
*
*paul

Paul,
     Whether "it matters" depends on what you use the metric for. If we 
compare players in 1992 (say) and decide that AA is +2 and BB -2 compared
to average then of course there is no more or less information there
than there is in deciding that AA is a 17 and BB is a 13 compared to
replacement value. Now when you start talking about career value is does
make a difference. A guy who plays beyond the point where his skills are
average has negative "points" added to his career totals using the
average value metric and positive points added to his career totals 
using the replacement value metric (except Pete Rose who played even
beyond the point of being at replacement value). Lots of great players
play a couple years beyond the point where they are even average. Some
like Joe D and Koufax don't. In career value assessments it can make
a pretty big difference whether you use replacement or average value
adjusted numbers.
     Gerry
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball