From: waltrip@capd.jhuapl.edu
Subject: Re:  NextStep 486 and misc. (was Re: Stability of Next...)
Organization: CAPVAX, JHU/APL
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 1992 03:20:56 GMT

In article <1992Aug31.194203.775@afs.com>, jon@afs.com (Jonathan Hendry) writes:
> In article <1992Aug28.114845.1@capd.jhuapl.edu> waltrip@capd.jhuapl.edu 
writes:
> 
>>He will win the GUI wars by default if Apple and
>>NeXT refuse to play on his OS (he may even win by having a
>>superior GUI if his object-oriented GUI pans out--yet another
>>case where his internal application developers will have it
>>before the outside developers?).
> 
> a) Define "win"
> 
	Since you ask, "win" means continue to dominate the market (in this
	case, the desktop software market).

> If win means "the other guys go out of business" then I think you are too 
much  
> in love with Billy G.

	Maybe there was a premise lost in transmission somewhere.  Thinking
	that someone will dominate a market--perhaps to the point of driving
	everyone else out of business--in no way implies love for the
	monopolizer.  It doesn't even necessarily imply respect since it may
	be incompetence on the part of "the other guys" rather than 
	competence on the part of the monopolizer.  I respect Bill Gates but
	don't know him and so have no idea whether or not I'd like him.  As 
	I've made clear in a number of posts, I do love NeXTSTEP.  I respect
	Steve Jobs for the vision that produced it (and the Macintosh) and
	believe it is good enough to beat the competition (which in this 
	context is Windows BUT NOT NT which is not synonymous with Windows
	although the "native" GUI for NT is intended to be Windows NT; NT is
	the OS and it competes with Mach/UNIX).  If I've failed to make myself
	clear on this point, email me and we can try some more.

> Apple certainly isn't going to go out of business in this  
> decade. 

	Probably not...but I suspect they'll lose market share on the desktop
	(I suspect the computer market this decade will move off the desktop 
	to a dramatic degree and will provide opportunities again for "the
	other guys".  These may provide some leverage for getting back on the
	desktop.  But for NeXT, what's wrong with being a major player on the
	desktop in the near future.  Would success spoil Steve Jobs?  Would
	Anderson Financial Systems be able to exploit a mass market (I'll bet
	they could).

> There's lots of room out there for other companies than Microsoft. 

	Yeah, if they don't mind small or niche markets.  There's an
	interesting report on a survey in Open Systems Today (August 31 
	issue).  They surveyed Sun, DEC, IBM and HP workstation users and 
	found that 63% of them are "investigating or considering for 
	purchase" Windows NT.  Most of them were considering multiple 
	options and, for 11%, the options included NeXTSTEP.  In my opinion,
	this wasn't a bad showing for NeXTSTEP...BUT I don't believe there's
	any way to construe this except as bad news for UNIX in general.
	NeXTSTEP is separable from UNIX (as is the X Window System).  I've
	said that it will win against Windows if it can go head-to-head on 
	the same OS platform.

> 4   million copies of NextStep in 4 months would be nice, but realistically, 
> it can't happen. How many people who bought Windows have 286's, or tiny 
> laptops?

	I haven't suggested that 4 million copies of NeXTSTEP would be sold 
	in 4 months (or even 4 years).  But a rate as low as 10% of the 
	Windows sales would be terrific for NeXT and for the community of 
	NeXT developers.  Such a rate should be achievable within a 
	reasonable time frame and should continue to grow.
> 
> Microsoft knows they can sell s**t and people will buy it, smiling and 
showing  
> it to their friends and telling them how great it is. If that friend is lucky
> enough to have a black box on his desk (or even a mac), he wrinkles his nose
 in  
> sheer revulsion, seeing it for what it really is. Most poor DOS users don't  
> know any better, so when they get an incremental advance in their software,  
> they go dancing in the streets and praising undefeatable Bill.
> --

	Contempt for MicroSoft may cause you to underestimate them.  But
	contempt for their customers is contempt for the marketplace.  If
	that's widespread enough among MicroSoft's competitors, maybe you're
	right and Bill is undefeatable.

> Jonathan Hendry  Anderson Financial Systems
> jon@afs.com  (Nextmail Welcome!) or hendryjw@duvm.ocs.drexel.edu

--
Opinions expressed are my own.
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