From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- AL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Wed, 26 Aug 1992 16:29:55 GMT

                  AL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                 (through games of Tuesday, August 25)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Clemens        BOS   14.7   6.3  0.699   15  8   2.61   42.1   4.08
Appier         KCR   14.2   6.1  0.701   14  6   2.53   40.2   3.84
Guzman,Ju      TOR   10.9   4.4  0.712   12  3   2.41   29.9   3.04
Nagy           CLE   13.7   7.3  0.654   13  9   3.00   32.9   3.14
Mussina        BAL   11.9   6.3  0.653   12  5   2.93   28.4   2.76
Navarro        MIL   13.0   7.6  0.630   14  8   3.32   23.4   2.58
Fleming        SEA   12.6   7.7  0.622   15  5   3.45   22.1   2.37
McDowell       CHI   12.7   8.0  0.612   17  7   3.23   25.2   2.16
Viola          BOS   12.1   8.3  0.593   10 10   3.57   19.4   1.93
Abbott         CAL   10.4   6.9  0.603    6 12   3.21   19.9   1.68
Smiley         MIN   11.6   8.1  0.589   13  6   3.71   17.2   1.79
Wegman         MIL   12.4   9.4  0.568   11 11   3.65   17.4   1.53
Eldred         MIL    3.5   0.8  0.815    4  1   1.56   12.7   1.30
Welch          OAK    6.9   4.2  0.619   10  5   3.02   13.3   1.18
Brown,K        TEX   12.1   9.6  0.557   16  8   3.84   13.4   1.11
Perez,M        NYY   10.8   8.9  0.549   10 13   3.68   14.8   0.75
Erickson       MIN    9.9   8.0  0.553    9 10   3.87   12.5   0.98
Gubicza        KCR    7.2   5.6  0.564    7  6   3.80    7.2   0.75
Tapani         MIN   10.7   9.2  0.538   13  9   4.15    9.0   0.84
Militello      NYY    2.1   0.8  0.732    3  0   2.20    7.0   0.66



Bottom 10 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong      CLE    4.6   9.8  0.318    3 13   6.35  -24.1  -2.53
Milacki        BAL    3.6   8.8  0.291    5  7   6.63  -22.9  -2.36
Terrell        DET    1.6   6.1  0.211    1  5   8.42  -24.4  -2.20
Slusarski      OAK    2.3   6.6  0.257    5  4   6.45  -18.9  -2.02
Stottlemyre    TOR    5.9   9.9  0.374    7  9   5.98  -25.1  -2.05
Wells          TOR    3.4   7.0  0.324    6  7   7.70  -30.0  -1.90
Stieb          TOR    3.3   6.9  0.321    3  6   5.92  -15.1  -1.69
Aldred         DET    2.4   5.8  0.292    2  6   6.99  -17.7  -1.57
Kamieniecki    NYY    5.7   9.1  0.386    3 10   5.09  -10.5  -1.61
Otto           CLE    3.9   7.2  0.354    5  9   6.75  -19.6  -1.57



Luckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Morris         TOR    9.6  10.5    16  5   11.9
Hibbard        CHI    7.5   9.2     9  5    5.7
Brown,K        TEX   12.1   9.6    16  8    5.5
Slusarski      OAK    2.1   6.6     5  4    5.5
McDowell       CHI   12.7   8.0    17  7    5.4
Bosio          MIL   10.2   9.4    11  5    5.2
Fleming        SEA   12.6   7.7    15  5    5.1
Moore          OAK    9.3  11.3    13 10    5.0
McDonald       BAL    9.1  10.8    12  9    4.7
Sanderson      NYY    8.8  10.5    11  8    4.6



Unluckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         CAL   10.1   6.9     6 12   -9.3
Hanson         SEA    8.7  11.3     7 15   -5.4
Armstrong      CLE    4.6   9.8     3 13   -4.8
Perez,M        NYY   10.5   8.9    10 13   -4.6
Valera         CAL    8.2   7.8     5  9   -4.4
Key            TOR    9.7   8.8     8 11   -3.9
Gardiner       BOS    3.8   6.0     2  8   -3.9
Hough          CHI    8.3   8.5     6 10   -3.8
Viola          BOS   12.0   8.3    10 10   -3.7
Kamieniecki    NYY    5.7   9.1     3 10   -3.6



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS     49.3   41.8   0.541   47.9   39  48   3.98   3.85   3.95
MIN     48.3   42.5   0.532   47.2   52  38   4.19   3.97   3.14
MIL     49.2   43.9   0.528   47.9   48  42   4.14   4.13   2.82
CAL     47.0   47.8   0.496   45.6   39  53   4.27   4.38  -0.41
CHI     45.7   46.5   0.496   44.9   49  39   4.23   4.25  -0.09
KCR     43.1   44.5   0.492   41.1   39  45   4.48   4.49  -0.54
BAL     44.3   46.6   0.487   42.9   50  45   4.44   4.44  -0.68
TEX     44.9   48.1   0.483   44.0   46  45   4.54   4.50  -1.47
TOR     43.8   50.2   0.466   42.7   53  44   4.78   4.93  -3.48
CLE     40.9   49.0   0.455   40.2   37  53   5.01   4.92  -3.59
NYY     40.0   49.7   0.446   39.1   38  50   4.84   4.86  -4.82
SEA     41.6   51.3   0.448   40.1   40  54   5.21   4.98  -4.47
OAK     40.8   51.7   0.441   39.2   53  41   4.72   5.05  -5.41
DET     35.5   53.6   0.399   33.9   42  48   5.38   5.55  -8.62
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AL     614.3  667.2   0.479  596.6  625 645   4.57   4.57 -23.69


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------