From: lor@cbnewsk.cb.att.com (edward.lor)
Subject: Re: AFC TEAMS STINK
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: usa
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 1992 08:51:48 GMT

In article <26611@optima.cs.arizona.edu> curtis@optima.UUCP (Curtis E. Dyreson) writes:
>> 1986 Redskins (12-4) vs 1986 Broncos (11-5), Pasadena
>
>Seeing as how Broncos beat the Redskins earlier that year (31-30 or
>was this '87), I'd have to go with the Broncos in a close game.
That win was at Mile High due to a missed PAT. The SuperBowl wasn't to 
be played at Mile High. Seeing how the Broncos performed against a massive
line at a neutral site .....

>> 1987 49ers (13-2) vs 1987 Broncos (10-4-1), San Diego
>One of the better 49er teams.  But then again the Broncos were
>4-1 against the 49ers in the 80's, so I'll rate it a toss-up since
>it's on grass.
But then again the Broncos haven't beaten any one of 49er teams when they were 
awesome during the regular season.  The ones they beat was in 82 (4-5), 85 
(10-6) and 88 (10-6).

>> 1989 Rams (11-5) vs 1989 Broncos (11-5), New Orleans.
>The general rule is you'd have to be a complete idiot to take 
>the Broncos in a Dome.  But I'd have to look at the Rams again, 
>memory says that they were somewhat overrated due to close
>games against SF earlier in the year.  
At least they didn't lose by 45 points. Since you are into regular season
(and we are even talking about the same season), the Rams at least played
the 49ers close in both games.

>> 1989 Giants (12-4) vs 1989 Broncos (11-5), New Orleans.
>In the regular season, Giants won 19-16 at the Meadowlands in
>1986 and 14-7 at Denver in 1989.  It's another Dome game so
>you'd have to take the Giants, but I wouldn't be surprised to 
>see another closish game between these superior teams.
Who else call the Broncos superior teams? Based on their history of 
folding in the SB, I certainly won't.

Hmmm, you count 3-1 for the Broncos, I count 0-4 for the Broncos. Based on 
Denver's routine lousy performance in the Show (your own words), who's 
more realistic? 

>If you think that the Broncos collapse against supposedly superior 
>NFC competition, then you are only looking at SuperBowls where 
>Bronco collapses are routine, but at odds with their regular
>season performances.  
That's because most of their regular season games were against AFC
competition. What's their regular season record against NFC in the
three SB seasons?

total: 7-4-1
on the road: 3-2-1
vs NFC playoff teams: 2-4

Let's look at the four NFC losers mentioned above against the AFC:

                      total      road games      vs AFC playoff teams
86 Redskins, 87 
49ers, 89 Rams & 
Giants                13-3           6-2                3-2 

>I chalk it up to the nature of the Big Game where blowouts are the 
>norm not the exception.
Yep, Big Game where BRONCOS GETTING BLOWN-OUT are the norm, not the exception.
There is no reason to see it any other way had it been against any one of
the above four teams.  Chalk it up.

>And give the home-field advantage/neutral site blowout theory 
>a rest.  Other factors are at play in NFC championship games 
>such as resting starters, avoiding injuries, not showing tendencies, 
>divisional familiarity, etc. that could easily serve to mitigate any 
>blowout.  Likewise, the extra hype week and the pressure of the
>Super Bowl can easily be seen as factors that work to scale up 
>the Super Bowl blowout.
Nice factors. How about this? 

  Give the "a blowout is a blowout" theory a rest. Other factors at 
  play in the SB are resting starters, avoiding injuries, not
  showing tendencies, unfamiliarity of the opponents, that could easily
  mitigate any blowout. Likewise, the extra hype and the pressure of
  the SB can easily be seen as factors that work to make the score close.

See, all your phantom factors can't beat a real factor: the Broncos aren't as 
good a team as the NFC playoff losers. 

>Once you get ranking blowouts down to a science, then perhaps
>we can do some actual ranking, but certainly nothing suggests
>that a 27 point NFC championship blowout is tangibly better than a 
>40 point SuperBowl blowout.  
I haven't seen anything suggesting that a 27 point NFC blowout is equivalent to
a 45 point SB blowout either.

>A blowout is a blowout. 
An inferior team is an inferior team.

-- 
                                          Edward Lor
                                          lor@cbnewsk.att.com