From: jmk@cbnews.cb.att.com (joseph.m.knapp)
Subject: USA Today/CNN tracking poll -- final results
Organization: AT&T
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 1992 16:33:52 GMT



USA Today/CNN Tracking Poll:

P = Perot,  B = Bush,  C = Clinton,  x = other or undecided

actual vote:
p = Perot,  b = Bush,  c = Clinton

               % preference (registered voters)              Clinton lead (%)
      5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40   45   50   55    5   10   15   20
      |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|    |----|----|----|
 9/30 |xP                           B                C       |           o  
10/01 |x P                          B               C        |          o   
10/02 | xP                           B            C          |       o      
10/03 |   xP                        B          C             |     o        
10/04 |   xP                        B          C             |     o        
10/05 |   xP                         B        C              |   o          
10/06 |   xP                        B          C             |     o        
10/07 | x P                        B               C         |          o   
10/08 | x  P                       B              C          |         o    
10/09 |x   P                       B               C         |          o   
10/10 |x   P                      B                 C        |            o 
10/11 |x    P                     B                C         |           o  
10/12 | x    P                    B              C           |         o    
10/13 | x     P                    B           C             |      o       
10/14 |x        P                B              C            |         o    
10/15 |x      P                    B            C            |       o      
10/16 x        P                   B            C            |       o      
10/17 |x       P                   B           C             |      o       
10/18 | x       P              B                 C           |            o 
10/19 |   x     P             B                 C            |            o 
10/20 |  x      P                B            C              |       o      
10/21 | x         P              B           C               |      o       
10/22 |  x         P            B           C                |      o       
10/23 |   x          P         B          C                  |     o        
10/24 |   x          P           B      C                    | o            
10/25 |  x          P           B          C                 |     o        
10/26 | x            P          B          C                 |     o        
10/27 |  x         P               B     C                   |o             
10/28 | x        P                  B      C                 | o            
10/29 |x         P                   B     C                 |o             
10/30 |x         P                   B     C                 |o             
10/31 | x        P                 B        C                |   o          
      |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|    |----|----|----|
      5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40   45   50   55    5   10   15   20



                 % preference (likely voters)                Clinton lead (%)
      0    5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40   45   50    0    5   10   15
      |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|    |----|----|----|
10/26 |    x           P                  B     C            |     o        
10/27 |     x         P                     B C              | o            
10/28 |    x          P                     B  C             |  o           
10/29 |    x        P                         BC             |o             
10/30 |    x        P                        B  C            |  o           
10/31 |     x        P                    B      C           |      o       
11/01 |     x       P                     B       C          |       o      
11/02 |    x        P                      B      C          |      o       
11/03 |                  p                  b    c           |    o         
      |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|    |----|----|----|
      0    5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40   45   50    0    5   10   15

So Gallup did pretty well with Bush and Clinton's percentages. It looks
like their big mistake was giving the undecideds to Clinton when it appears
they went to Perot. In hindsight, maybe that could have been predicted, as
Perot's numbers seemed to be correlated with the number of undecideds.

---
Joe Knapp   jmk@cbvox.att.com
Xref: sparky talk.politics.misc:59263 ca.politics:9479 ba.politics:6936