HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: franjion@spot.Colorado.EDU (John Franjione)
Subject: Re: Maynard Ex Ante
Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 06:52:21 GMT

maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes:

>In <1992Dec17.212616.1708@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank) writes:

>>In article <1992Dec17.134730.11702@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca> maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes:

>>Rog, darling, are you saying that, right now, right this minute, every
>>team in baseball has 27-1 odds against winning the World Series in 1993?
>>That the Blue Jays and Rockies have about equivalent chances of winning
>>the World Series?

>Vegas odds are predictions of how people in general will bet.  They are 
>not any kind of "scientific" prediction of how good a team is.

>The true probability of any team's success is unknown if we cannot determine
>all of the premisses.  And we can't.  That is exactly my point.  The true
>odds of any team winning the WS cannot be determined.  Too many variables.

This is amazing!  Roger, what is your problem?  Ted did NOT mention Las
Vegas odds.  He did not.  He didn't.  Read it again.  He didn't.  The
*true* probability of a team's success is UNKNOWN???  Please explain
what *true* probablility is.  I don't have any formal training in
probabability or statistics, but what is so hard about recognizing
probabilities for what they are?  They don't express anything with
certainty.  I suppose that you think that one team has a 100% chance of
winning the WS, it's just that we don't have enough information,
right?

John Franjione
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: akamholz@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu (Andrew E Kamholz)
Subject: Re: Mattingly discussion, take 2.
Organization: HAC - Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 21:27:15 GMT

>
>Mattingly still LOOKS good on defense (and really he's not bad).
>But he only gets to an average number of balls hit toward him.
>If he's the best in the league, why doesn't he get to more?
>
>--
>Jim Mann            
>Stratus Computer   jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com  
>

Ok- the fact that I have seen him was not meant to be the all-deciding factor.
I have seen (via games and TV) all first baseman play. Perhaps some of his
stats are average, but on the whole he is at least as good as any other first 
baseman and better than most. In fact, as suggested to me by Valentine, the 
only guy I put in his class is McGwire.

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: steph@perseus.cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson)
Subject: Re: Brave staff greatest in recent history?
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1992 23:06:48 GMT

In <1992Dec11.184117.2981@CSD-NewsHost.Stanford.EDU> nlu@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
[...]

>and these are last year's ERAs for the projected Atlanta starters:

>P. Smith:	2.05
>Maddux:	2.18
>Glavine:	2.76
>Smoltz:	2.85
>Avery:		3.20

>and all 5 pitched in excellent hitters' parks.

Wow!  If we could just get Avery's ERA under 3, too.  What's the lowest
high ERA for a team's starter in recent history?  (Include #5 starters).
-- 
Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic

  "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not 
   overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: jlundy@bilbo.encore.com (Joe Lundy)
Subject: Re: the mets' all-time te
Organization: Encore Computer Corp.
Distribution: rec
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 18:28:29 GMT

In article <1992Dec15.1531.31243@execnet>, "doug pappas" <doug.pappas@execnet.com> writes:
|> HN>How about Wayne Garrett?  Totally Arbitrary Reason #1: hit better in the
|> HN>post-season than HoJo.  Totally Arbitrary Reason #2: better-looking than
|> HN>HoJo.
|> 
|> How about Lenny Randle?  We need more punch in the lineup...
 
You must be referring to the incident in which Lenny, when with Texas, punched
his manager, Frank Luchessi.

Not a bad one, Doug...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Joe Lundy           Encore Computer Corporation, 6901 W. Sunrise Blvd.    |
| jlundy@encore.com   Mail Stop 811, Ft. Lauderdale, FL  33313-4499         |
| Most important stats of all time:  The youngest Marlins fan is here!!!!!  |
| Adrianne Lundy Born 10/19/92  Hght: 1' 7", Wt: 8 Poops: Left Burps: Right |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: golchowy@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca (Gerald Olchowy)
Subject: Re: Blue Jays-Gillick
Organization: University of Toronto Chemistry Department
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1992 22:53:05 GMT

In article <1992Dec13.043952.11594@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca> maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes:
>
>Gillick a miracle worker?  hardly - the Jays publicity dept, yes.
>
>He lost Key and Cone and he replaces them with Stewart who will not have
>as good a year as either.  Sure he let Gruber go and who has he replaced
>him with?  Nobody.  Who has he replaced Maldonado with?  Nobody.  Who

Even the Blue Jays have a salary limit...Bell and Ward will have to do
the job in left field...

Gruber was now a predominantly negative force in the clubhouse...and
the Blue Jays needed to dump salary...they save around $2 million in
the transaction.

>has he replaced Henke with?  Nobody.  He doesn't have a shortstop signed.

Ward will replace Henke...other teams are offering Henke a lot more than
he is worth for the Jays who think he is now on the decline.  Timlim
will replace Ward.  Lee and Griffin were offered arbitration...there
doesn't seem to be a rush to sign Lee by anyone...and then there is
Sojo and Zosky...           

>And as for Molitor - do you honestly expect him to contribute as much as
>Winfield did last year?  Molitor won't play 90 games this year.
>

Molitor has played well over 100 games each of the last two years I
think.

>His starting pitching is comprised of 2 old farts, a potential phenom and
>a bunch of question marks.  If he doesn't sign Lee then he has lost half
>of the everyday infield, half of his starting pitching, half of a very
>effective relief pair, one of his everyday outfielders, and his full-time
>dh.
>

I think Molitor will ultimately provide more offense than Winfield.
The pitching is weaker, and Borders will likely be traded to shore up
third base.  As for the bullpen...it is time to see what Ward can do.

>Right on Pat!  Let's rebuild!  And when the jays go down the toilet this
>year all the stathead dorks in this group will be calling for Cito's head.
>

The major problem I see is that the new Jays probably need to run and
be aggressive on the bases, and utilize bench personnel more effectively
because of weaker every day players in some positions...I don't know
if Cito is that kind of manager...he may not be agressive enough, and
he likes to send the same nine guys out all the time.

Gerald
From: demers@cs.ucsd.edu (David DeMers)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Cordero
Date: 14 Dec 92 06:11:19 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: =CSE Dept., U.C. San Diego

In article <1992Dec14.054423.9985@cs.mcgill.ca> bspencer@cs.mcgill.ca (Brian SPENCER) writes:
>For those who care, I had replied to a post regarding Wilfredo Cordero.
>I was subsequently called a non-Expos fan. In my defense, All I am
>saying is that Cordero Has some problems, like being unable to turn a
>smooth double play. I am not denying that he won't be great...jt not
>next year, which is when the Expos can't afford to make any mistakes.
>Most of the people singing the prasises of Cordero as being an All-Star
>player next year are not from Montreal and have only seen him play in a
>handful of games. Come to Montreal and listen to the talk-in radio
>shows. People here are very nervous about Cordero...who'll know better:
>people who've seen him play a lot of games, or people who've seen him in
>a handful of games. Don't get me wrong. I hope Cordero plays amazing
>next season. But realistically, every organization has a player breaking
>in who is touted as being a shoe-in for the Hall-of Fame. Unfortunately,
>most don't make it. The best thing to do is avoid speculation, wait
>until next season, and then E-mail the I-told-you-so's.

Avoid speculation?!?  But, what else is there to do until the
season opens?  Write my dissertation?

Cordero is not a lock for the HOF, nor is he a lock to have
a great season.  But he really doesn't have much to
prove in AAA - he's been there two seasons already and
shown he can handle it.  So, what do you do with a player
who has done well at AAA for two seasons, who plays a key
defensive position where you have no one else, and plays it
well?  I suggest giving him the major league job.  

Cordero had some defensive problems last year, but Pee Wee
Reese committed something like 47 errors as a rookie and
made the HOF, not primarily on the strength of his bat.

It's not unreasonable for the Expo fans to "be nervous"
about him, but he's replacing Spike Owen, for cryin' out loud.
He won't cost the team more than a game, and will probably
help.  I predict his BA/OBP/SLG will all be no worse than 10 
points below those of Moises Alou, if they both get 500+ PAs.

If the Expos dump Wallach and play Stairs at 3B and Cordero
at SS, Colbrunn at 1B and the OF as is, they will win the 
division (barring injury and a healthy Phillies staff).

Keeping Cordero in AAA won't help the Expos in 1993 nor any
later season.  He belongs in the NL now.


-- 
Dave DeMers			 ddemers@UCSD   demers@cs.ucsd.edu
Computer Science & Engineering	C-014		demers%cs@ucsd.bitnet
UC San Diego					...!ucsd!cs!demers
La Jolla, CA 92093-0114	(619) 534-0688, or -8187, FAX: (619) 534-7029
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: sgs@stein.u.washington.edu (Steven Smith)
Subject: Birthdays
Organization: University of Washington, Seattle
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 20:33:47 GMT

Baseball Birthdays

December 15
Stan Bahnsen, 1944
Eddie Robinson, 1920
Ray Herbert, 1929
Art Howe, 1946
Mike Proly, 1950
Jay "Nig" Clarke, 1882
Sam Esposito, 1931
Jimmy Sexton, 1951
Jim Leyland, 1944

--Steve
-- 
 sgs@u.washington.edu             * "The tall people want what the 
 Steve Smith                      *  short people got."
 University of Washington HR-20   *    --D. Wiggin-"Philosophy of the World"	 
 Seattle, WA 98195                *
From: clgs11@vaxa.strath.ac.uk
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Maddux signs with Braves (Was Re: Juan Guzman/STATS)
Date: 11 Dec 92 13:08:35 GMT
Organization: Strathclyde University VAX Cluster

In article <1992Dec10.155811.931@dartvax.dartmouth.edu>, riff@coos.dartmouth.edu (Christopher P. Riff) writes:
> joel@math.toronto.edu (Joel Chan) writes:
> 
>>I am now the proud owner of the Stats' 1993 Major League Handbook.  I've
>>found the annual player projections interesting, however I could not
>>find Juan Guzman's projected season stats.  I was wondering if anyone
>>has the official Stats' projection from him (who knows... I might
>>be lucky and one of you actually logs into STATS online!).  Or...
>>could they have projected Juan Guzman to be on the DL for the entire
>>year?!?  Bite my tongue!  Anyway, e-mail or post.
> 
>>Just to make things controversial, here are my projected stats for Juan:
>>         G   GS   IP     H    R    ER    HR     W    L     %  ShO  ERA
>>Guzman  32   32  221   198   76    72     9    16    8  .667   2  3.03
> 
> God, I hope he can come close to these numbers - the Cubs will really
> need it. Even these numbers pale in comparison to Greg Maddux.

JUAN GUZMAN = TORONTO BLUE JAYS

JOSE GUZMAN = TRADED FROM TEXAS TO CHI. CUBS !!!!!!



-: In The End :-

Anton.
From: rsmith@strobe.ATC.Olivetti.Com (Russ Smith)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: My picks, AL/NL East
Date: 17 Dec 92 20:11:42 GMT
Organization: Olivetti ATC; Cupertino CA, USA

In article <Dec.17.13.47.56.1992.11710@pilot.njin.net> gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky - Hobokenite) writes:
>
>7) St. Louis - Wow, I can't find much to say about them.  Lankford is OK - Gilkey
> is vastly over-rated, but at least they got rid of Galarraga.  If they bring up Allan 
>Watson and Dmitri Young, they could move out of the cellar, but I don't see that 
>happening.

Huh? First off although I cannot wait to see Dmitri Young in St. Louis,
he will be 19 next year with one year in low A-Ball(Midwest league). They
still do not know whether he is a 3B(currently) a 1B or an outfielder,
and I seriously doubt he will be ready to get called up this year and help
the club. Watson barring injury will more than likely be in the rotation
by the All-Star break, he finished last year in Louisville(2 starts) and
is easily their top prospect.

Lankford is good, Jose is good although his walks dropped and I still
think he is overrated on defense. Gilkey is a solid player, better than
Brian Jordan at this point. Brewer will probably be the 1B, big improvement,
Pena at 2b, great offense for his position, Ozzie at SS, Zeile has got to
have a better year this year at 3B, Pagnozzi is not much on offense.

Starting pitching should be better. Tewksbury will no doubt fall off
quite a bit, but its reasonable to expect improvement from Osborne,
Cormier and Olivares. Magrane, Clark and Rene Arocha will compete for
the 5th job with the loser filling out the bullpen. Watson will be there
midseason. Losing Carpenter and Worrell hurts the pen, but Perez,and 
Smith are ok and look for Mike Milchin to provide them with a lefty
in the pen too.

They will not win the division likely, but I would be shocked if they
came in last, unless of course Dal makes another of his brilliant
trades (-:.




Russ Smith
*******************************************************************************
"Chapeau means hat, oeuf means egg, its as if those French have a different 
word for everything!" 
                                        Steve Martin
********************************************************************************
From: cc007001@wvnvms.wvnet.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: NUMBER 24 and retired numbers
Date: 11 Dec 92 20:56:03 GMT
Organization: West Virginia Network for Educational Telecomputing

In article <92345.28989.J056600@LMSC5.IS.LMSC.LOCKHEED.COM>, J056600@LMSC5.IS.LMSC.LOCKHEED.COM writes:
> In <168B91F42.O1DOUG@VM1.CC.UAKRON.EDU>, Doug Miller writes:
> 
>>A retired number is just that a retired number, and should stay that way.
>>

stuff deleted.

> I agree in principle, but let's not forget that Mays consented to it.  For
> all we know, Willie Mays might feel that this is an even greater tribute than
> never having #24 worn again.  Don't forget the relationship between Mays and
> Bonds (Barry is Willie's godson), and maybe Willie wants it this way.  I feel
> that just as he earned a retired number, he's earned the privilege to decide
> whether anyone else ever wears #24.  If Willie Mays says it's okay, then who
> am I to complain about it?
> 

If my memory serves me correctly:

When Three Rivers Stadium opened in Pittsburgh, the Pirates also went to a
new uniform design.  With the new design, they decided to retire number 20
(worn by Richie Hebner at the time) for Pie Traynor.  Hebner was given/took
the number 3.  Traynor then stated that he didn't want the number retired
while he was alive and the Pirates gave Hebner number 20 back until Traynor's
death.  So retired numbers have been unretired before.

Doug Saunders
Commissioner, Internet Baseball League
Owner/GM Northern West Virginia Phantoms
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: roger@crux.Princeton.EDU (Roger Lustig)
Subject: Re: All-Henderson Team;All-Jewish Team
Originator: news@nimaster
Reply-To: roger@astro.princeton.edu (Roger Lustig)
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 19:06:50 GMT

In article <1992Dec15.035537.10544@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>How about an all-Jewish team?

>C: Moe Berg

Norm Sherry was better, albeit less colorful.  Johnny Kling was 
probably better than either.

>1B: Hank Greenberg

Epstein as backup.

> 2B: Rod Carew

Not.  He's never converted.  His wife is Jewish.  You want Buddy 
Myer.

>SS:
>3B:

Al Rosen.

>OF: John Lowenstein
>OF:
>OF:

Art Shamsky, Cal Abrams.

>P: Sandy Koufax
>P: Steve Stone
>P: Ken Holtzmann

Larry Sherry, Saul Rogovin, 

>There have got to be others, that's just off the top of my head.

There have been about 180 Jewish major leaguers, according to an article
a few years ago in Spy Magazine, entitled "Jews on First."

Roger
From: yankees@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Kenneth M Gelfand)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Mets and Yankees sign pitchers
Date: 11 Dec 92 19:05:00 GMT
Article-I.D.: jhuvms.11DEC199214050585
Distribution: na
Organization: The Johns Hopkins University - HCF
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

In article <1992Dec11.152513.24144@news.columbia.edu>, jgl7@cunixa.cc.columbia.edu (Andrew T. Kim) writes...
>Obviously PO'd that they were rejected by the string of free agents,
>Yankees sign Jimmy Key to a 4 year deal worth $17M.  I guess they just
>couldn't come out with full wallet.  Key is 32 years old (?), but still one
>of the better left handers in the league, IMHO.  Their pitching staff is
>pretty much set with Abbott, Perez, Key, Millitello, Wickman.  Steve Howe
>is very good, but that's when he was high...so who knows.  

           Actually, I would expect Sterling Hitchcock to have an edge over
Wickman come spring training.  The Yankees were touting Wickman as a
long reliever/set-up man of the future even before he came up last
year.  Yankee Stadium is also partial to lefty pitchers, so Hitchcock
will have an edge there too.  At least the names Wade Taylor and Jeff
Johnson will only be used jokingly this spirng. 

> 
>Rumor says Yankees are interested in Darling too.  I would rather want to
>see them chasing McGwire with their still relatively full wallet, but with
>Mattingly having tenure here, I don't think it will happen.  How about
>Sierra, is he interested?

	This is a tough issue.  If the Yankees believe they have a shot this
year, with the Jays losing Cone, Key and Henke, the Brew Crew losing
Bosio, Plesac and Molitor and the Bosox doing their 1982 Yankee impersonation,
(can John Mayberry be far behind?) Darling could be an excellent pickup.
However, I am inclined to believe that come 1994, Brien Taylor will
be ready to take Manhattan and the Yanks will have to eat Darling's
contract for a year.  I don't think a 2-year deal would be awful, 
but overall, I'd rather make a pitch for another hitter. 


>I heard Mets signed Frank Tanana to a 2 year deal.

     From what I read in the Times it was only a 1 year deal.  Which 
wouldn't be so awful.  I like his chances at Shea better than Eric 
Hillman's, considering Harazin still thinks they can win it all this
year.  I have no clue about the Mets rotation outside of Gooden, Sabes, and
Sid, but I assume coming off 1992, Schourek will be there too.  Hey, he's
better than Filer or Birkbeck!!!
>Andy Kim
> 
> 
> 

							Kenny G
							
Fianlly, the Yanks find a lefty to replace the Gator. 
Actually 2.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: gpeel@mta.ca
Subject: Jay's third baseman
Reply-To: gpeel@mta.ca
Organization: Mount Allison U, Sackville, N.B. Canada 
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1992 22:27:30 GMT

	Hello, I have just joined this news group and was wondering if anyone
out there has heard who the Jays are going to get to play 3rd next year. 
Or does anyone have any predictions as to who they will sign?
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tyeckley@hamp.hampshire.edu
Subject: I KNOW that the Braves aren't stupid, I KNOW IT
Organization: Hampshire College
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1992 03:32:16 GMT

i know that there's no way the braves are really going to trade RON GANT for a
reliever...I mean Ward is good and all, but I KNOW there's no way they are
going t trade a still young guy who's had MVP numbers two of the last three
years just because they aren't sure Wohlers or Merker or any of their other
umbelievable young pitchers aren't mature enough to handle the role.
myself, i think Wohlers is ready. I know he had a tough year, but he started
out terrible and slowly got to be okay. I am just thinking back to the
Twins/Braves series, and that the Twins were more afraid of facing Wohlers
stuff than any other Atlanta pitcher.
But I KNOW they aren't so stupid that they're going to trade RON GANT...

Jon Lejon Levy
Hampshire College
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: jgl7@cunixa.cc.columbia.edu (Andrew T. Kim)
Subject: Re: Giants and Bonds - a $43 million mistake?
Reply-To: jgl7@cunixa.cc.columbia.edu (Andrew T. Kim)
Organization: Columbia University
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1992 19:26:42 GMT

In article <1992Dec11.184657.3638@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>I hope things work out well. Expect to see lots of football score like games
>
>:-) The team was awful last year.  Improving the pitching would not
>have been enough.  Bonds helps the offense a lot, leaving them with
>one fewer glaring holes.  Now if they can find a few young arms, they
>are set...

The only problem is that it will take at least more than a year to field a
decent staff, and I think Will Clarke can be a free agent at the end of
'93.  With this kind of salary inflation, I think Will will want *at least*
Bonds' money, which is tough especially when you probably have to spend
your money at pitching.  With improved Braves, Reds, Padres and even Astros
in the same division, they will need to make more gutsy moves to become a
contender. 

Aquiring Bonds is a good start, but if they don't make more smart
move, it will be no more than a gesture to the fans.

>-Valentine

Andy Kim
From: jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com (Jim Mann)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Blue Jays-Gillick
Date: 18 Dec 1992 15:58:01 GMT
Organization: Stratus Computer Inc, Marlboro MA
Distribution: na
Reply-To: jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com
NNTP-Posting-Host: gondolin.pubs.stratus.com

In article <1992Dec18.150446.930@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca>  
maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes:
> Yes you could be right about everything or some things.   
Unfortunately we
> can never know for sure.

True, we can never know "for sure" (though we can know
with some very high degree of probability of being right).
The problem is that most of your statements are much stronger
than this: you keep saying that it isn't even worth 
discussing (though for some reason you keep discussing it).


--
Jim Mann            
Stratus Computer   jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com
Date: Thursday, 17 Dec 1992 22:22:10 EST
From: <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Baseball Weekly Loses It
 <92352.120853BARBER@MAINE.MAINE.EDU>
 <Dec.17.19.06.41.1992.19668@pilot.njin.net>
 <1992Dec18.023507.21834@u.washington.edu>

tim wendel is a schmuck.

this man gave the yankees an awful rating, because they lost the bidding
wars for cone and maddux.  i hate to break it to timmy, but twenty-seven
teams lost the bidding war for cone.  twenty-seven teams lost the bidding
war for maddux.  twenty-six teams lost the bidding wars for both cone
and maddux.  why punish the yankees for doing something that 25 other
teams did, too, when you're not punishing the other 25 for it?

this man also, in the issue before the current one, wrote an article
about how stupid the yankees' front office was, because they lost hayes.
i'll agree that the yankees' front office is pretty dumb, but losing
hayes was by no means bad.  the guy just plain sucks offensively, and
he's average defensively.  wendel's reasoning here was, "well, hayes
played a zillion games for the yankees last year.  the yankees had
twenty third basemen in the past two years.  hayes is obviously great,
since he played so many games."  duh.

what a hoser.  do you need to be a grade school graduate to write for
this paper, or what?

bob vesterman.