From: gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky - Hobokenite)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Stats/Scouts?
Date: 24 Dec 92 03:36:00 GMT
Organization: Somewhere in Hoboken


this is taken from bill james' baseball book - only parts of the
 article, written by eddie epstein, director of research and
 statistics,
 baltimore orioles, who did "not play pro baseball; has a background
 in economics, a master's degree.  formulated statistical models.."

here goes.

evaluating talent sort of makes me a scout,but i "scout" with the
 numbers instead of with my eyes.  this often puts me in conflict with
 traditional baseball people and conventnional baseball wisdom. (i
 have become convinced the latter phrase is a contradiction in terms)
 many people in baseball and even some in our organization do not
 believe that systematic analysis of baseball statistics has any
 real place in the evaluation of talent.  actually, some of them
 doni't believe that the analysis of baseball statistics has any
 real place in baseball, period, btu that's another story.  for 
 thousand of years people thought the earth was flat and they were
 wrong too.
 
in any event, i evaluate performance of professinoal players in a
 manner probably similar to how a stock analyst evaluates stock.
 {stuff deleted, about in 1990 he had thomas #1, bagwell #2
 at A baseball).  however, when i rate prospects, i do not solely
 rely on performance.  the context of a player's performance, 
 even apart from the contexts of league and ballpark, must
 be considered in this type of evaluation.  for exmaple, a player's
 age and experience relative to his classiication are important
 indicators of a player's ability.  {deleted} 

"...someone will probably ask me who my "best" prospects are in that
 organization.  i will go back to my lists of the last 2 or 3 seasons,
 see which players have done well in my rankins, and then produce
 my prospect list.  how have "my players" done?  i can say that
 i have been right about players more often than i have been wrong"

i am also asked to evaluate specific trades or specific players.  it
 is hardly unusual for my analysis to run contrary to what
 "traditionalists" say.  once again, i'll stack my track record
 against
 anyone else's.  i am evaluating *performance*, not *ability*.
 the two are related, butnot perfectly.  {deleted} what i measure
 is how a player performs on the field during ames, because
 performance is what sports are about.  great "tools" and
 lousy performance is a lousy player.
 
 let me digress.  one would think that major league clubs would
 evaluate their evaluators.  that is, that clubs would kee
 track of which scouts, coaches, etc. have a good record in 
 evaluating talent. unfortunately, that is not so.  very often,
 a person's input is based strictly on reputation and perception
 and not on his actual track record.  *that usually happens because
 no one is keeping tabs on his record in evaluation*.  
 
{deleted} the statistics that are still in the mainstream (like
 batting average, home runs, and rbi) are often inadequate in
 describing a player's contriubtion to his team.
{deleted} on the inside (of baseball), what typically counts are
 opinions.  a lot of baseballpeople don't believe that any
 right or wrong exists about the game.  they think it's just
 all opinion.

{deleted} this is not a knock at sparky anderson, fo example,. but
 just because he's been in the game for almost 40 years doesn't
 mean he knows what the correlation coefficient [Gaj's note - I
 don't, either, unless I get out my stats book again] is
 between runs scored and on base percentage, or how many
 teams which led their league in offense (runs scored) have
 won division titles or pennants compared to the number which have
 won titles leading in defense (runs allowed).  yet these facts
 have a great relevance in formulating policies for major league
 teams.  you probably don't ask a pilot to fix a jetliner.

from bill james baseabll book, 1992.  go out and buy this, if you 
 stillcan.

- bob gaj
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball