From: sunder@altair.crhc.uiuc.edu (Srinivas Sunder)
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections
Subject: Re: Predictions for USA campaign
Date: 22 Jul 92 16:23:11 GMT
Organization: Center for Reliable and High-Performance Computing, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
NNTP-Posting-Host: altair.crhc.uiuc.edu

In article <3573@keele.keele.ac.uk>, csp48@seq1.keele.ac.uk (J.W. Kirriemuir) writes:
|> 
|> Just thought I'd add my two cents worth.
|> 
|> My predicitions for what happens between now and Polling Day in
|> the USA :
|> 
|> 
|> (1) The USA will take some form of military action somewhere; judging by
|> the recent news reports, a sudden air strike against Iraq is more likely
|> than anything involving Yogoslavia. A side reason for this (which was
|> picked up on in last nights newsnight on BB2) is that Bush's popularity
|> would take a welcome boost.

Despite the fact that I am a Bush-supporter (or rather, a Clinton-opposer),
I think it would be a mistake for Bush to launch any air-strikes against
Iraq unless it is well-orchestrated with a proper build-up to the actual bombing
(i.e. mobilizing public opinion against Iraq). He will also have to make a show
of keeping Bill Clinton informed about it (It is traditional for Presidents
in election years to keep the candidates well-informed of major foreign-policy
initiatives), while at the same time not doing anything that would give people
the idea that Clinton is not a total outsider to foreign policy, his visible
policy weakness.

|> 
|> (2) Something bigger and more damaging than before will hit Clinton
|> and/or Gore, especially if they are riding high in the polls. Don't know
|> what it will be, but it will come (late september / early october).

Anybody's guess. I personally doubt it. Everything short of accusing Clinton
of being the assassin on the grassy knoll in the Kennedy assassination has 
been said, and it has washed of pretty much like H20 off a duck's back.

|> 
|> (3) Reagan will be drafted in at some point to bolster the image of
|> Bush; James Baker will also move into a prominent position (and if
|> things get any more desperate, might just elbow DQ out of the VP slot on
|> the republican ticket).

Reagan has ALREADY been drafted. He will be speaking at the Republican National
Convention, and will probably deliver one heck of a speech. Baker WILL probably
try to elbow out Quayle, but I doubt that he will put himself in place instead.
I am not sure if Baker has changed his residence (for tax purposes) to Wyoming
from Texas; if he hasn't, he cannot run with Bush (both can't be from the
same state according to the Constitution). They will probably put in some other
person appealing to the right-wing (Cheney or Kemp) who won't look like a
frightened deer when the TV-lights are on him.

|> (4) Should Bush win (and I am not predicting who will), then sometime in
|> the spring of next year, a few persistent stories will break about
|> Republican officials underhandedly smearing the opposition.

I doubt that they can do anything that wouldn't be true. It might not be a
legitimate issue that they will use to smear the Democrats, but if it sells,
that's all the legitimacy it needs. Besides, this year the Democrats have also
gotten into the act (their oppo research dude was on C-SPAN the other evening).

|> Personally, I hope that Bill wins; should people start deciding in large
|> numbers whether he is worthy of office because he MAY have had his pants
|> down in the region of women other than his missus, then I think they are
|> making a big mistake; witness what is currently dominating the news
|> headlines over here, in the first few months of the new term.

I'm not up to the news in the Mother Country. What IS going on in
Major-land that's dominating the news? Besides, everyone knows that people
didn't vote FOR the Tories; they voted AGAINST Labor because they thought
that Kinnock would raise their taxes after he finished with the rich (that's
the gist of the analyses of the election that I read). Bush is probably
going to try something similar. Whether it works or not is an open question.

-- 
Srinivas Sunder                                         sunder@crhc.uiuc.edu

If my employer shares these opinions, he deserves them.
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