From: harley@engrhub.ucsb.edu (Harley Hahn)
Newsgroups: comp.unix.questions
Subject: WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO UNIX?
Date: 2 Jan 93 21:33:34 GMT

You may have seen the series of postings in which various people 
answered a question I posed some time ago: Is Unix Dead?  In this 
posting, I am asking a new question: Now that AT&T has sold Unix 
to Novell (the maker of Netware, a network operating system):
 
----- WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO UNIX? -----
 
BACKGROUND
==========
The first question, Is Unix Dead?, was based on the issue of Byte 
magazine which asked same question on the cover.  To summarize, 
Byte published an article speculating on the success and benefits 
of Window NT, the new, unreleased operating system from 
Microsoft.  To be provocative, they asked "IS UNIX DEAD?" on the 
cover of that issue, the idea being would Windows NT kill off 
Unix?
 
The actual article concluded that, indeed, Unix wasn't dead.  
Virtually all of the postings that I received in answer to my 
question had the same answer.  However, now we have a real threat 
-- or possibly an opportunity -- from a new front.
 
UNIX AND NOVELL
===============
As you may know, AT&T has announced their intention of selling 
Unix System Laboratories (USL) to Novell.  More precisely, Novell 
and AT&T have signed a letter of intent that states that Novell 
will trade over 11 million new shares of Novell stock for all the 
current shares held in USL.  (AT&T holds a 77% interest right now 
in USL.  The other shareholders -- 11 other companies, including 
Sun -- will have to agree to the deal.)
 
The plan is that, over the first quarter of 1993, AT&T and Novell 
will consummate the deal.  When it is all over and everyone 
counts their chips, AT&T will have about $100 million.
 
In other words, AT&T is selling Unix System V (and Tuxedo, and 
all of USL) to Novell for $100 million.
 
WHAT THE COMPUTER COMMUNITY THINKS OF ALL THIS
===============================================
Most of the computer community is not Unix.  Most of the computer 
community is based on PC's or Macs.  They can be divided into two 
main parts: Microsoft and everybody else.  Many, many people -- 
especially in the commercial part of this community -- do not 
like Microsoft.  They are looking with trepidation towards 
Windows NT, not because it may kill Unix, but because they are 
afraid of even more Microsoft dominance of the market.  They hate 
Microsoft the way they used to hate IBM.
 
(Interesting sidenote: In the last five months, the total loss of 
value of IBM stock reached about 28 *billion* dollars, or about 
four times the net worth of Bill Gates.)
 
Much of the commercial PC/Mac world is looking forward to the 
Novell/Unix alliance because they think that the combination of 
Novell's network operating system + Unix provides the best 
available challenge to continued Microsoft challenge.  They don't 
much care if Unix dies, they care if Windows NT dies.
 
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
==================
Within the next few days, I will be writing an analysis of the 
Novell/AT&T deal for "Unigram", a worldwide Unix newsletter.  (If 
you have never seen Unigram, it is published weekly and covers 
the business aspects of Unix. Unigram is read widely and reaches 
all the executives and movers and shakers in the Unix industry.)
 
So far, Unigram has commented only on the business aspects of the 
deal.  The consensus is that AT&T selling Unix is good for the 
industry because Novell+Unix is the only strong operating system 
competitor for Microsoft.  No attention has been given as to what 
the technically-inclined Unix people (that is, all of us) might 
think of the deal.  In fact, when I raised the question to a 
person who has her finger on the pulse of the commercial world of 
Unix I was told that "The techies don't matter".  In other words, 
Unix is an important commodity, but it's future depends on that 
is good for the money people.
 
I agreed to write a short analysis detailing the concerns and 
opinions of the technical Unix community.  For this reason, I am 
solicting your opinion. Here are some considerations:
 
PROS
====
-- Novell may make a better steward of Unix than AT&T.  In recent 
   years, AT&T has grown to be more interested in hardware, phone 
   systems and telecommunications than in Unix.  Novell, on the 
   other hand, is an operating system company and only an 
   operating system company.  They own, not only the various 
   versions of Netware, but DR DOS, a competitor to DOS that they 
   acquired when they bought Digital Research.
-- Novell will be competing with Microsoft's Windows family, 
   actively and competently.
-- The boss of Novell, Ray Noorda, is widely considered to be a 
   Good Guy.
-- Much of what we call "Unix" is not dependent on System V and 
   the efforts of USL and, even if they screw it up, the Unix 
   community may flourish on its own.
 
CONS
====
-- Novell is a different company that cares more about their own 
   financial health than the future of Unix.  They are in the 
   network operating system business and do not understand the 
   Unix culture.
-- If push comes to shove, Novell will use Unix for whatever they 
   need to help their own bottom line and they have no long-term 
   obligation to Unix itself.  (Realistically, a publicly-held 
   company like Novell has a primary responsibility to its own 
   shareholders and to its own profitability, not to an abstract 
   idea like Unix.  This idea has a lot to do with why AT&T is 
   selling Unix.)
-- In conversations with People Who Matter, the idea of Ray 
   Noorda being a Good Guy is often offered as being good for 
   Unix.  But think about this: When this deal goes through, one 
   person -- Noorda -- will control the future of Unix (at least 
   System V Unix).  What happens if this person resigns or dies?  
   We don't know who his successor will be or what this person's 
   feelings will be about Unix.
-- The Novell/AT&T public relations people are scraping the 
   bottom of several barrels to show simultaneously why (1) 
   nothing will change, and (2) everything will be better.  In 
   particular, they say that Novell has promised to keep their 
   hands off USL.  Business, we are assured, will continue as 
   usual.  USL will keep the same people and will stay in New 
   Jersey.
 
SOME OF MY THOUGHTS
===================
All of this reminds me of Ted Turner's actions after buying MGM.  
He made a rousing speech to the MGM employees in which he 
promised that he would restore MGM to its former glory and they 
would, once again, start making Great Movies.  After this speech, 
he proceeded to take the library of old films for himself and 
sell off the rest of the company to the highest bidders.
 
More to the point, Novell bought Digital Research promising more 
or less the same thing about DR DOS.  The president of General 
Research was given an important post and was talked about as 
being the heir to the Noorda throne.  It wasn't long before the 
heir had left Novell (saying that, unlike Burger King, they 
wouldn't let him do it his way) and DR DOS was "integrated" into 
the Netware environment so Novell could sell more network 
operating systems.  The idea of DR DOS using the muscle of Novell 
to fight Microsoft DOS has, along with the old MGM movies, pretty 
much gone with the wind.
 
The official Novell press release quotes Ray Noorda as saying: 
"This acquisition is being done at the urging of customers who 
have asked us to support the UNIX system directly and 
integrate it more fully within the Netware environment."  
 
The press release then makes the conflicting promise that "USL's 
commitment to fair and neutral access to UNIX technology will not 
change."
 
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
==================
This posting is long because I wanted to lay out the background 
and the pros and cons of this issue.  However, I am interested in 
hearing your opinion before I write my analysis (which I will 
post to this newsgroup).  If you are interested, can you please 
email me a *short* opinion on the effect that you think the 
AT&T/Novell deal will bring to the technical Unix community.  
Because of the publishing deadline, I need your opinion right 
away.  (My deadline is Jan 5).
 
Thanks,
 
Harley Hahn
 
harley@engrhub.ucsb.edu