From: danp@sabre.bellcore.com (Daniel Pomplun)
Subject: Predictions - 6 Games Remaining
Organization: Bellcore, Livingston, NJ
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 92 14:23:42 GMT


Here's a simple prediction method of the rest of the season:

	Expected Chance the HomeTeam wins =
	   0.6 + HomeTeam's season record - AwayTeam's season record,
	Expected Chance the AwayTeam wins =
	   0.4 + AwayTeam's season record - HomeTeam's season record,
	each limited by 0 and 1.

For example, Team A (4-6) hosts Team B (7-3):
  Team A will be given 0.6 + 0.4 - 0.7 = 0.3 win and
  Team B will be given 0.4 + 0.7 - 0.4 = 0.7 win.


Yes, it's very simple.  The goal of this exercise is to examine
strength of schedule and home/away of the remaining games.  0.6
is approximately the home team winning percentage so far this
season.


Then, the rest of the season would look like:

Team Record        Opponents            Std Str of Sched   Exp Wins/Total Wins

Buff (8-2) _Atla @Indi _NYJe _Denv @NOrl @Hous    31-29       4.6 / 12.6
Miam (7-3) _Hous @NOrl @SanF _Raid _NYJe @NEng    29-31       4.3 / 11.3
Indi (4-6) @Pitt _Buff @NEng @NYJe _Phoe @Cinc    26-34       2.6 /  6.6
NYJe (3-7) @NEng _KanC @Buff _Indi @Miam _NOrl    33-27       1.7 /  4.7
NEng (1-9) _NYJe @Atla _Indi @KanC @Cinc _Miam    28-32       0.9 /  1.9

Pitt (7-3) _Indi @Cinc _Seat @Chic _Minn _Clev    25-35       4.7 / 11.7
Hous (6-4) @Miam @Detr _Chic _GBay @Clev _Buff    30-30       3.5 /  9.5
Clev (5-5) @Minn _Chic _Cinc @Detr _Hous @Pitt    30-30       2.9 /  7.9
Cinc (4-6) _Detr _Pitt @Clev @SanD _NEng _Indi    24-36       3.2 /  7.2

Denv (7-3) @Raid @Seat _Dall @Buff _Seat @KanC    28-32       4.1 / 11.1
KanC (6-4) @Seat @NYJe @Raid _NEng @NYGi _Denv    20-40       4.2 / 10.2
SanD (5-5) _TBay _Raid @Phoe _Cinc @Raid @Seat    20-40       4.0 /  9.0
Raid (4-6) _Denv @SanD _KanC @Miam _SanD @Wash    36-24       1.8 /  5.8
Seat (1-9) _KanC _Denv @Pitt _Phil @Denv _SanD    38-22       0.4 /  1.4

Team Record        Opponents            Std Str of Sched   Exp Wins/Total Wins

Dall (8-2) @Phoe _NYGi @Denv @Wash @Atla _Chic    29-31       4.7 / 12.7
Phil (6-4) @NYGi @SanF _Minn @Seat _Wash _NYGi    32-28       3.4 /  9.4
Wash (6-4) @NOrl _Phoe @NYGi _Dall @Phil _Raid    33-27       3.3 /  9.3
NYGi (5-5) _Phil @Dall _Wash @Phoe _KanC @Phil    35-25       2.5 /  7.5
Phoe (3-7) _Dall @Wash _SanD _NYGi @Indi _TBay    32-28       1.8 /  4.8

Minn (7-3) _Clev @Rams @Phil _SanF @Pitt _GBay    33-27       3.8 / 10.8
GBay (4-6) @Chic _TBay _Detr @Hous _Rams @Minn    27-33       2.7 /  6.7
TBay (4-6) @SanD @GBay _Rams _Atla @SanF @Phoe    28-32       2.4 /  6.4
Chic (4-6) _GBay @Clev @Hous _Pitt @Detr @Dall    32-28       2.0 /  6.0
Detr (2-8) @Cinc _Hous @GBay _Clev _Chic @SanF    31-29       1.3 /  3.3

SanF (8-2) @Rams _Phil _Miam @Minn _TBay _Detr    31-29       4.6 / 12.6
NOrl (7-3) _Wash _Miam _Atla @Rams _Buff @NYJe    32-28       4.2 / 11.2
Rams (4-6) _SanF _Minn @TBay _NOrl @GBay _Atla    34-26       2.2 /  6.2
Atla (4-6) @Buff _NEng @NOrl @TBay _Dall @Rams    32-28       2.1 /  6.1


This method does not generate big surprises.  Of note:

1.  Pittsburgh is slightly favored over Denver for 2nd Division.
2.  Kansas City is slightly favored over Houston for 2nd Wildcard.
3.  Dallas is slightly favored over San Francisco for 1st Division.
4.  Philadelphia is slightly favored over Washington for 3rd Wildcard.



Daniel Pomplun, Bellcore, danp@sabre.bellcore.com
Phone:  (908) 758-2740  Fax: (908) 758-4268
331 Newman Springs Rd, Red Bank, NJ 07701-7020,  MS: NVC-1E246
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro