Organization: Penn State University
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 22:33:55 EST
From: <ZQH@psuvm.psu.edu>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.taiwan,soc.culture.china
Subject: Scars of History (Was Re: Working for a new relationship...
 <1992Dec11.160412.21954@cs.mcgill.ca>
 <1992Dec17.232010.28890@pasteur.Berkeley.EDU>

In <1992Dec17.232010.28890@pasteur.Berkeley.EDU>
thuang@cory.Berkeley.EDU (Tze-yau Huang) writes:
>Now, suppose you are the hero who democratized China and incooperate
>Taiwan into a common defense system.  Oneday, unfortunately, Japan
>has destroyed all the semiconductor chips in China's weapon systems
>and threat to invade Beijing if China does not promise not to
>intervene in Japan's invasion against Taiwan.  As the President of
>China, will you abandon Taiwan or fight against the nuclearly-armed
>Japan without accurate ICBM due to semiconductor corruption?
>
>Will you trade Beijing for Taiwan?
>
>This is not a question of what Taiwanese did.  This is a question of
>what the Imperial China was about.  This is a question of how the
>future of Taiwan as a part of China would be like.  Will Taiwan
>gain the core status in China if she rejoin China?  Will China
>scracrifice 10 provinces to protect Taiwan?  Yes, this should be the
>terms of a marriage.  Enjoy!
>
>William Huang
>

It was really a very disgraceful history of China in the 2nd-half
of the 19th century when the Machurian Ching/Qing Dynasty ceded
a lot of territory to imperial powers, especially Russia and Japan.
From what I read, except some traitors, most of people in Taiwan
resisted Japan's colonizing efforts during 50 years of Japanese
occupation, with many heroic armed uprising/rebellions/resistances
(e.g. ``Black Flag Army'' etc).

Now, China can defend herself against any invasion (with possible
exception for the one from Russia), or at least won't be taken
that easily as in the 19th century without some degree of M.A.D.
(Mutual Assured Destruction).  However, some kind of vigil must
be kept for possible resurrection of Japanese Imperial Militarism
since: 1). according to some U.S. articles, many Japanese think
the World War II was wrong NOT because all people suffered BUT
because Japanese people suffered, e.g. A-bombs dropped in Japan;
2). Japanese government refused to officially apologize for
atrocities Japan conducted on other countries' people during
the World War II, and it even changed Japanese school textbook
to cover its World War II crimes (e.g., deliberate omission of
the Pearl Harbor and Rape of Nanking).

If someday in the future, after the reunification of Mainland
and Taiwan by the will of people in Taiwan, Japan's
resurging Militarism threatens the security of Taiwan,
I think the then-Federation of Greater China will fight with
Japanese neo-Militarism expansion with all the means, even
the ultimate nuclear exchanges --- well, China might have some
of her own cities destroyed, but the entire Japan will become
a nuclear waste land --- I hope this will NEVER happen, & I hope
Japanese people can prevent the resurrection of Militarism.

About those technology advantages Japan has over China, I don't
think they will have decisive effects in the modern warfare.
For one thing, Japan doesn't have the monopoly in chip-making,
and it's reported Mainland China plans to purchase US$3 billions
of chip-making equipments from U.S. next year.  Those chips
used in military are hardened and protected from even the very
powerful electromagnetic pulse generated by nuclear explosions.

Another thing is, with warming relationship and surging trade
between Russia and Mainland China, a lot of transfers of advanced
military hardwares and technologies have been flowing into China,
not to mention the western military technology transfers (mainly
U.S. and French) during 80's before 6.4.1989.

If a conflict breaks out between Japan and China due to the resurging
of Japanese Militarism expansion (trying to annex Taiwan), the airpower
will be the decisive force.  At the present, Japan has the upper hand:
with its 300+ F-15, it can outnumber 96 Su-27 and 24 MiG-31 China bought
from Russia, even though Su-27 can outmaneuver F-15 in dogfighting and
both Su-27 and MiG-31 can outshoot F-15 with AA-9 missiles (range 150km
vs. 45km for F-15's Sparrow or even 73km for AMRAAM).

Fortunately, it'll take quite a few years for the neo-Militarism to
resurge in Japan and for U.S. to withdraw its troops.  By then, China's
airforce will be overly upgraded.  According to an agreement between
Russian and Mainland China, about 1500 Russian technicians are to be
sent to China as assistance for the licence-production of 200+ MiG-31
in Mainland China.  But the strange thing is the production site:

Shenyang:     J-8 interceptors currently
Chengdu:      J-7/MiG-21 fighters currently
Anshun:       license-production site for MiG-31 interceptors
Shanghai:     McDonnell Douglas MD-82 140-seat passenger planes
Xi'an:        Y-7/An-24 48-seat passenger planes
              JH-7 (Tornado class) multi-role combat aircrafts (pending)
Chenggu:      Y-8/An-12 (C-130 class) transport aircrafts
Nanchang:     Q-5 ground-attack aircrafts
Jingdezhen:   Z-8/AS-321(French) helicopters
Harbin:       Z-9/AS-365(French) Dolphin helicopters
              Y-12 17-seat commuter passenger planes

Please note Shenyang and Chengdu are two largest and modern aircraft
factory, especially for jet fighters.  Chengdu is producing J-7/MiG-21
mainly for export (it might be a very old airplane, but it's quite
maneuerable, with a sustaining turn rate of 14 degrees per second ---
the same as F-15.  Nevertheless, it's underpowered, with a token radar
and very limited fuel, can fire only short-range infra-red missiles,
maybe just dog-fighting for 5 minutes then run home for fuel/missiles
--- enough for the 3rd world).  A new single-seat single-engine
fly-by-wire jet fighter J-9 is also being developed at Chengdu (the 1st
flight was in September, 1991) --- some sources report it has an airframe
like F-16.  Well, producing J-7/MiG-21 for exports and developing J-9
might not be its full-load, but at least keep Chengdu occupied.

Shenyang is the most advanced jet fighter factory, which is producing
J-8 now.  However, once licence-production of MiG-31 starts, there will
be NO need for J-8, which is FAR inferior to MiG-31 in almost every aspect.
(I thought MiG-31 would be produced at Shenyang logically. But when someone
told me about the article in the ``Aviation Week'', it really suprised me).
This will leave the entire Shenyang aircraft factory with nothing to do.

Here is my speculation:  Shenyang aircraft factory might be `reserved'
for the license-production of Su-27, since its airframe is much more
advanced than MiG-31.  It's less likely to be MiG-29 because it will
be duplicated with J-9 (the same class of fighter with the similar
mission).

I guess there must be some closed-door negotiation on the license
-production of Su-27, China might have to drop the bid for the
nearly-completed Ukranian aircraft carrier `Varyag' (since the Russian
navy wants it but is reluctant to pay for it), and buy some other
airplanes (possible Tu-22M/Tu-26 Backfire bombers and IL-76 AWACs),
in order to get the right to license-production of Su-27.

Even if Mainland China gets the license-production of Su-27 soon, it may
still not be able to replace all of those 3000+ stone-age J-6/MiG-19
by the end of this century.  Well, they may fly with Su-27, acting as
the ``gunpowder fodders'', to absorb these BVR (Beyond-Vision-Range)
missiles  ;-)  :-( .

This's TOO much for today (what the heck, it'll be Christmas :-) ).

James Huang