From: changhp@engin.umich.edu (Hsiou-Ping Chang)
Subject: Re: more than 50% support TI
Date: Thu, 31 Dec 92 23:33:34 EST
Organization: The University of Michigan
Reply-To: echang@engin.umich.edu
Originator: changhp@fijan.engin.umich.edu


In article <1992Dec31.223411.5519@CSD-NewsHost.Stanford.EDU>, nlu@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
> In article <-va=BR@engin.umich.edu> echang@engin.umich.edu writes:
> 
> >	Your arguments is incomplete in the sense that you didn't mention 
> >what will happen if China wants to send its governor to Taiwan?   Your 
> 
> Well, what will happen if Taiwan declares independence, and China sends a
> governor (armed with military forces) to Taiwan?  TI does not solve this
> problem.
> 
	I was saying in one hand we reserves the right (and prepare ) for TI;
on the other hand, we increase the mutual understanding across the Strait.
Let these two options compete (and complement) with each other and let 
people choose which one is better.  
If China threatens to use force against us or asks something unaccetable from
us, the trend will lean toward TI; China will have to consider if it is
worthy of pushing too hard against us.  In these sense, TI is reducing the crisis not increasing crisis.  This is why we have to prepare for TI, so that
China will believe we can use it if we decide to.  We cannot easily give up
the TI option, and let China pushes us to the dead end.  To your surprise,
TI is protecting us not destroying us.

	Your assumption has been: The only possible case that China will
use force is Taiwan's declaration of independence.    I am willing to see your
assumption come true, but I suggest we also prepare TI to make sure we have
another choice if your assumption happens to be wrong.

> >prediction that China will become semi democratic  in 10 years seems too
> >optimistic to be accetable.  Even if that is true, by then Taiwan's democracy
> 
> That is what they said ten years ago, that Mikhail Gorbachev won't democratize
> the Soviet Union one bit.  (Actually, it's less than ten years ago.  Gorbachev
> got his power in 1985.)
> 
	I'll be very happy to be proven over pessimistic.
	As I said, let's discuss what we are going to do, if the prediction
fortunately turns out to be true, and let's discuss also if it turns out to be
disappointing and acting against us.  

> >Shouldn't we prepare ourselves to the unpredictable? Shouldn't Taiwan look for
> >various options and select one that fits better given a particular situation?
> 
> Does TI solve those problems?  I don't think so.  A declaration of independence
> will not just magically dissolve the territorial claims that Beijing has, and
> won't magically cause the other countries to stop recognizing those claims.
> >
> >TI doesn't mean we won't help China; TI means we want to protect ourselves
> >from the bloody hand of Communists.  We should prepare ourselves for TI and use
> >it as our support to tell CCP if it wants to force us to unify, the trend 
> >toward TI will accelerate, because we prepare for it and we mean it.
> >If we don't prepare for it, we don't have the option for TI.  What we can do
> >is pray that China will become a more democratic state and accept the 
> >fate when CCP put its knife on our throats.
> 
> Again, do TI solve those problems?  If China democratize, then those threats
> won't be there, but then, what then becomes so bad about unification?
> 
	Neither TI nor unification can prevent China from using force.
Today, even though TI is suppressed and unification is favored by the government
, CCP still waiving its fist against us.  However, TI can make CCP think twice
before it decides to ask unreasonable demands from us.
	I didn't say unification option is so bad, because any available option
is to our advantage.  TI is another option that we like to have. 

> If China does *not* democratize, then TI doesn't really help either, because
> the communist government will not recognize Taiwanese independence.
> >
> >TI is a very feasible option that Taiwan should have.  If you are confident
> >about our level of democracy, you should support to put TI into our national
> >agenda. (I'm not asking you to support TI, but to support the right of TI
> >to compete with unification.)
> 
> This I do support, and support greatly.
> 
	I am very happy to see this.  Discussing TI in a national scale
will help eliminate the hostility between the pro-TI and pro-unification camps.
The consensus of national goal and China policy are  easier to form and
to achieve.   Given the options that we have --TI, unification, status quo,
Let people decide what kind of strategy should we take at particular time and circumstances to obtain the best interests of Taiwan.
	
	The premise : we make TI as well as unification, status quo fully discussed, understood and available ----- a balanced TV media and propaganda. 

> >The more options we have, the more adaptive
> >Taiwan will be able to adjust itself in the changing world.  Put all the
> >possible options in front of people of Taiwan, and let the wisdom of
> >people of Taiwan decide what they want to do.
> 
> However, this doesn't mean that TI is a panacea.
	
	I didn't say TI is a panacea.  I cannot see why you said this. Could
you enlighten me? 
Newsgroups: soc.culture.taiwan