From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: roy NL
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 92 22:55:38 GMT

In article <fxrnz6q@lynx.unm.edu> kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt Bose "of Biscayzee") writes:

>And by yours, Nelson, Scott Cooper should have won the MVP award last year.

Kurt, it is unfair to compare a player who played 14 of 162 games (8.6%) to
someone who played 91 of 128 games (71.1%).
>
>Far be it for me to agree with MIke Fester, but here I have to say that he has 
>a point.  I disagree that Karros has been a drain on the Dodger team.  Who the 
>hell do you suggest?  I'll ask you this:  which is the farther dropoff:
>replacing Alou with Matt Stairs or John Vanderwal, replacing Reggie Sanders with
>Dave Martinez, or replacing Eric Karros with Brian Traxler or (god forbid) Todd
>Benzinger?  The key flaw in your system is by assuming that average players are

Hmmm.  Not that I agree with this model, but replacing Sanders with Martinez,
you lose 37 points of OBP and 149 points of SLG.

If you replace Karros with Benzinger, you lose 23 points of OBP and 124 points
of SLG. :-)

>available.  Last year, the average first baseman was Eddie Murray.  How eager
>would teams be to trade Murray (no opinion, please; we're talking about real
>teams, not to be confused with intelligent teams)?

Well, last year, they could have traded Murray and started Karros and not lost
anything.  But that's not the point.  We have to look at what Karros would do
for *any* team and what Sanders would do for *any* team to evaluate them
fairly.  If we get extreme with your system, you can claim that Gary DiSarcina,
since the Angels don't have another shortstop, is a valuable player.
>
>That said, I am concerned with Karros' ability to get on base.  But I'm no less 
>concerned about Reggie Sanders' fragility or Felipe Alou's ability to keep
>Moises in the lineup (is Moises being platooned?  Karros would have higher stats
>if he didn't bat against all righties...)

This is one strike against Moises, although it is not as huge as you suggested.
Up to this Saturday, of Karros' 115 starts, he started 64 against RHP (55.7%).
By comparision, Alou started 38 of 71 starts vs. RHP (53.5%), and Sanders
started 42 of 62 starts vs. RHP (67.7%).  If platoon advantage were a concern,
you'd actually have to give Sanders more credit than Karros.
>
>How about calculating total RC/27, and multiplying by PA somehow?  Or games?
>Yes, there are biases inherent in that measure, and I'm aware of them, but there
>must be some kind of a tradeoff in terms of playing time versus production.
>
>At what point do you trade off between a world-beating part-timer and a steady
>but unspectactular regular?  Unless both sides can agree on a solution, you're
>going to have fights about this, and you're both just yelling hot air.

I believe Palmer and Thorn used something like "replacement level," which is
lower than average.
>
>Frankly, I think the stability Karros has given the Dodgers at first (and the
>fact that Benzinger sucks lava rocks) is enough to set Karros above the part
>time player Alou.  Sanders' problem is similar in that while he's been a better
>player when he's played, right now (AFAIK) he's got a punctured lung or some
>such.  The point is, he's hurt, and he's always been hurting.  That counts 
>against him.  It has to.  Still, I won't argue against him for ROY the way I
>would Alou.  Alou isn't particularly special. But my vote goes to Karros, though
>I admit that's mostly because I know that he will walk in his career.

But you lose more if you replace Sanders with Martinez than if you replace
Karros with Benzinger, if you use that argument.

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball