From: lewis@aera8700.mitre.org (Keith Lewis)
Subject: KAL computer rankings and predictions
Organization: The MITRE Corporation
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 16:41:20 GMT

I added 0.1 for homefield to last week's ratings and used them to predict
last weekends games.  It got 10 out of 14 correct.

Minnesota is *still* #13.

                National Football League 
                   National Conference 
    East          W  L  T  PF  PA  Wins   Losses  Rating    Rank 
Dallas           11  3  0 341 212  5.679  1.361  0.80670148   3
Washington        9  5  0 267 227  4.787  2.078  0.69731820   6
Philadelphia      9  5  0 317 222  5.027  2.307  0.68543702   9
NY Giants         5  9  0 261 326  2.322  3.703  0.38538411  20
Phoenix           4 10  0 227 309  2.566  4.149  0.38209870  21

    Central       W  L  T  PF  PA  Wins   Losses  Rating    Rank 
Minnesota         9  5  0 341 239  3.361  2.545  0.56908119  13
Green Bay         8  6  0 241 256  3.849  3.459  0.52666140  15
Chicago           5  9  0 278 318  2.465  5.006  0.32994762  22
Detroit           4 10  0 251 305  1.717  4.662  0.26912829  24
Tampa Bay         4 10  0 246 341  1.708  5.260  0.24509829  25

    West          W  L  T  PF  PA  Wins   Losses  Rating    Rank 
New Orleans      11  3  0 287 168  5.064  0.711  0.87684470   1
San Francisco    12  2  0 386 216  6.879  0.968  0.87664795   2
Atlanta           6  8  0 283 335  2.270  2.421  0.48391810  16
LA Rams           5  9  0 248 321  2.097  3.063  0.40638614  19

                   American Conference 
    East          W  L  T  PF  PA  Wins   Losses  Rating    Rank 
Buffalo          10  4  0 358 240  5.472  1.824  0.74998885   4
Miami             9  5  0 305 251  4.374  1.921  0.69484150   7
Indianapolis      7  7  0 179 272  3.052  2.698  0.53078014  14
NY Jets           4 10  0 203 276  1.996  4.776  0.29473546  23
New England       2 12  0 182 327  0.780  6.002  0.11505998  28

    Central       W  L  T  PF  PA  Wins   Losses  Rating    Rank 
Pittsburgh       10  4  0 273 206  4.740  2.127  0.69028562   8
Houston           8  6  0 308 241  3.777  2.859  0.56920344  12
Cleveland         7  7  0 245 235  3.283  3.753  0.46662211  17
Cincinnati        4 10  0 237 333  1.599  5.177  0.23595560  26

    West          W  L  T  PF  PA  Wins   Losses  Rating    Rank 
Kansas City       9  5  0 285 227  4.492  1.738  0.72102982   5
San Diego         9  5  0 268 213  4.063  1.929  0.67804432  10
Denver            7  7  0 232 281  3.978  2.445  0.61931771  11
LA Raiders        6  8  0 214 225  3.048  3.492  0.46604383  18
Seattle           2 12  0 130 271  0.851  5.401  0.13609332  27


Season "fit"

HomeRatng-AwayRatng  H     A     Home Pct 
-0.800 to -0.700     0     2     0.00                     AA                  
-0.700 to -0.600     0     2     0.00                     AA                  
-0.600 to -0.500     0     6     0.00                     AAAAAA              
-0.500 to -0.400     3    10    23.06 HHH                 AAAAAAAAAA          
-0.400 to -0.300     2    13    13.31 HH                  AAAAAAAAAAAAA       
-0.300 to -0.200     8     8    50.00 HHHHHHHH            AAAAAAAA            
-0.200 to -0.100    14     9    60.81 HHHHHHHHHHHHHH      AAAAAAAAA           
-0.100 to  0.000     6    12    33.31 HHHHHH              AAAAAAAAAAAA        
 0.000 to  0.100    18     7    72.00 HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  AAAAAAA             
 0.100 to  0.200    19     4    82.56 HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH AAAA                
 0.200 to  0.300    20     0   100.00 HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH                    
 0.300 to  0.400    11     1    91.63 HHHHHHHHHHH         A                   
 0.400 to  0.500     9     3    75.00 HHHHHHHHH           AAA                 
 0.500 to  0.600     5     0   100.00 HHHHH                                   
 0.600 to  0.700     4     0   100.00 HHHH                                    

---- WEEK 16 predictions
  *Kansas_City		at NY_Giants
  Tampa_Bay		at *San_Francisco
  Buffalo		at *New_Orleans
  *Houston		at Cleveland
  Minnesota		at *Pittsburgh
  New_England		at *Cincinnati
  Phoenix		at *Indianapolis
  LA_Rams		at *Green_Bay
  Washington		at *Philadelphia
  Chicago		at *Detroit
  *San_Diego		at LA_Raiders
  Seattle		at *Denver
  NY_Jets		at *Miami
  *Dallas		at Atlanta

I wish I had a way to tell the computer O'Donnell isn't playing for
Pittsburgh.

Keith Lewis             klewis@mitre.org          "Mr. Cheap"
I don't dance to music; music dances to me.  Email me for my PGP key.
The above may not (yet) represent the opinions of my employer.