From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Final Support-Neutral W/L Report -- AL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1992 20:40:20 GMT


                  AL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                               for 1992

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Mussina        BAL   17.2   7.7  0.691   18  5   2.61   47.6   4.70
Clemens        BOS   17.4   8.6  0.669   18 11   2.92   42.9   4.26
Appier         KCR   15.1   6.6  0.695   15  8   2.55   42.6   4.03
Guzman,Ju      TOR   13.2   6.7  0.664   16  5   2.79   30.4   3.06
Nagy           CLE   16.3   9.9  0.624   17 10   3.25   33.6   3.14
Eldred         MIL    8.2   2.4  0.775   11  2   1.88   28.0   2.79
McDowell       CHI   16.4  10.6  0.607   20 10   3.28   31.7   2.67
Smiley         MIN   16.1  10.4  0.606   16  9   3.47   29.3   2.85
Abbott         CAL   13.6   8.6  0.611    7 15   3.11   28.2   2.35
Navarro        MIL   15.7  10.9  0.591   17 11   3.59   22.3   2.36
Fleming        SEA   15.2  10.5  0.591   17 10   3.73   20.9   2.22
Viola          BOS   15.7  11.3  0.581   13 12   3.74   20.3   2.21
Perez,M        NYY   14.9  10.6  0.585   13 16   3.42   26.6   1.87
Wegman         MIL   15.5  11.5  0.573   13 14   3.58   24.0   2.00
Erickson       MIN   13.4   9.7  0.580   13 12   3.65   21.8   1.87
Bosio          MIL   14.2  11.2  0.559   16  6   3.89   13.2   1.43
Brown,K        TEX   15.4  12.9  0.544   21 11   3.96   13.8   1.13
Key            TOR   13.0  10.8  0.548   13 13   3.66   14.9   1.10
Welch          OAK    8.0   5.8  0.581   11  7   3.42    9.9   0.92
Rasmussen      KCR    3.0   0.8  0.785    4  1   1.67   11.4   1.09



Bottom 10 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong      CLE    5.2  11.4  0.314    3 15   6.37  -28.1  -3.05
Milacki        BAL    4.5   9.5  0.323    6  8   6.18  -21.1  -2.28
Terrell        DET    2.9   7.6  0.275    3  6   6.98  -24.1  -2.32
Slusarski      OAK    2.5   6.9  0.266    5  5   6.25  -18.6  -2.04
Aldred         DET    2.4   6.6  0.267    2  7   7.63  -22.7  -1.96
Sanderson      NYY    9.9  14.0  0.414   12 11   5.40  -22.0  -2.02
McCaskill      CHI   10.3  14.1  0.422   12 13   5.00  -14.7  -1.80
Wells          TOR    3.4   7.0  0.324    6  7   7.70  -30.0  -1.90
Stieb          TOR    3.3   6.9  0.321    3  6   5.92  -15.1  -1.69
Otto           CLE    3.9   7.2  0.354    5  9   6.75  -19.6  -1.57



Luckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Morris         TOR   12.9  13.5    21  6   15.6
Brown,K        TEX   15.4  12.9    21 11    7.5
Moore          OAK   12.1  14.3    17 12    7.3
Bosio          MIL   14.1  11.2    16  6    7.1
Hibbard        CHI    8.1  11.2    10  7    6.1
Darling        OAK   11.5  12.5    15 10    6.0
Sanderson      NYY    9.7  14.0    12 11    5.3
Wickman        NYY    2.7   2.9     6  1    5.2
Guzman,Ju      TOR   12.6   6.7    16  5    5.0
Slusarski      OAK    2.3   6.9     5  5    4.6



Unluckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         CAL   13.3   8.6     7 15  -12.7
Hanson         SEA    9.7  12.7     7 17   -7.0
Perez,M        NYY   14.6  10.6    13 16   -7.0
Armstrong      CLE    5.2  11.4     3 15   -5.8
Wegman         MIL   15.5  11.5    13 14   -5.0
Valera         CAL   10.4   9.6     7 11   -4.9
Kamieniecki    NYY    8.8  12.0     6 14   -4.8
Ryan           TEX    9.3   8.8     5  9   -4.5
Chiamparino    TEX    1.5   1.3     0  4   -4.2
Reed           KCR    5.1   5.9     2  7   -4.1



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL     65.7   55.1   0.544   63.9   68  52   3.95   3.94   5.41
MIN     62.4   54.6   0.533   61.0   65  51   4.14   3.92   4.13
BOS     61.7   56.5   0.522   59.9   51  63   4.20   4.06   2.95
BAL     60.3   58.2   0.509   58.7   65  58   4.26   4.26   1.51
CAL     61.1   60.2   0.504   59.5   48  69   4.15   4.25   0.57
KCR     56.3   56.5   0.499   53.5   50  59   4.41   4.42   0.14
TOR     59.3   61.0   0.493   57.8   75  54   4.42   4.56  -1.18
CHI     57.3   62.9   0.477   56.2   60  54   4.45   4.48  -2.45
TEX     65.3   71.0   0.479   64.1   68  74   4.52   4.47  -2.60
OAK     53.6   63.3   0.458   51.3   67  52   4.48   4.79  -4.76
NYY     52.8   63.6   0.453   51.6   51  66   4.80   4.82  -5.50
SEA     53.6   65.1   0.451   51.8   50  70   5.10   4.87  -5.22
CLE     52.0   64.5   0.446   50.5   44  66   5.08   4.99  -5.86
DET     44.9   69.4   0.393   42.9   52  63   5.41   5.57 -11.59
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AL     806.1  861.8   0.483  782.7  814 851   4.51   4.51 -24.45


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------