From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 27 Dec 1992 10:18:57 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                26 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 361, 12/26/92
10.7 FLUX=131    90-AVG=139        SSN=158      BKI=1022 0000  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=0012 1210  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=005,004,013,013,003,004,004,004   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 1554UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 1527UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1920UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2225UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2250UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1145UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 1432UT   BOUTF-MIN=55390NT @ 1854UT  BOUTF-AVG=55413NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+111NT@ 2034UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0741UT  G7-AVG=+085,+026,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1933UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 2354UT  G6-AVG=+103,-004,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,130;SESC:130,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,005/020,015,010
    KFCST=3334 4333 2224 5222  27DAY-AP=004,009   27DAY-KP=1112 2110 0022 3332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7382 (S18E36) produced
       today's only C-class event: a C1.1/SF at 1605Z. This Region is a
       simple, very small B type group. Regions 7374 (S09W33) and 7381
       (N05E16) are the largest groups on the disk but did not produce
       any flares. Region 7381 showed a strong arch filament system
       and modest growth today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active tomorrow in response to recent filament
       disappearances. Conditions should decline to unsettled on day
       two and should be at quiet to unsettled levels by the third
       day.

            Event probabilities 27 dec-29 dec

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 dec-29 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/10
                        Minor Storm           25/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/10
                        Minor Storm           25/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7370  S09W80  050  0030 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7372  S12W50  020  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7374  S09W33  003  0140 CSO  05  012 BETA
7376  N17W21  351  0020 CRO  06  005 BETA
7378  N12W12  342  0060 CSO  04  004 BETA
7379  S11E14  316  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7381  N05E16  314  0160 DAO  09  023 BETA
7382  S18E36  294  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7383  S04E15  315  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7384  N03W13  343  0000 BXO  03  005 BETA
7369  S07W87  057                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 DECEMBER TO 29 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7355 S19   203


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
78   S37E03 S53W32 S48W42 S37E03  354  ISO   POS   019 10830A
79   N27E39 N02E01 N02E01 N33E15  318  ISO   POS   022 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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