From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 21:42:31 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 312, 11/07/92
10.7 FLUX=134.9  90-AVG=124        SSN=120      BKI=2234 2312  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=1.8E+06  FLU10=2.8E+05  PKI=1133 2312  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=015,012,032,043,011,021,008,015   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.7   @ 1634UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 0951UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1255UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1730UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2300UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55428NT @ 1407UT   BOUTF-MIN=55405NT @ 1643UT  BOUTF-AVG=55418NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+099NT@ 1923UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-001NT@ 0935UT  G7-AVG=+070,+034,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1924UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-016NT@ 0158UT  G6-AVG=+087,-008,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,135;SESC:130,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,015,015
    KFCST=1113 3111 1113 3111  27DAY-AP=016,040   27DAY-KP=2214 4443 2356 7322
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7332 (S23W68) PRO-
       DUCED TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE: A C3/1F AT 1634Z. THE EVENT
       WAS UNUSUAL BECAUSE IT CAME FROM A MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE GROUP
       AND WAS MARKED BY PARALLEL RIBBONS AND BRIGHT SURGING OF MATER-
       IAL THAT COULD BE SEEN ON THE DISK AND SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE LIMB.
       A REVIEW OF THE EVENT SHOWED ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISRUPTION OF
       AN ACTIVE REGION FILAMENT OF 9 DEGREES EXTENT. REGION 7330
       (S08W10) CONTINUES AS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AND
       SHOWED MODEST GROWTH TODAY, BUT WAS QUIET. REGIONS 7334
       (N13E47) AND 7335 (S17E50) SHOW MATURE SPOTS AND RESPECTABLE
       SIZE BUT WERE STABLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS
       WERE QUIET AND VOID OF ACTIVITY.

            SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
       MOSTLY LOW, BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE
       FROM REGION 7330. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE BACKGROUND LEVELS
       IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD AND FOURTH DAYS AS OLD REGION 7315
       (N06, L-130) WILL BE RETURNING AT THAT TIME. 7315 PRODUCED
       3 M-CLASS FLARES DURING ITS PREVIOUS DISK TRANSIT.

            THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET
       TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DOMINATED MOST OF THE DAY BUT AN ACTIVE
       PERIOD OCCURRED AT MID-LATITUDES FROM 0900-1200UT AND AT HIGH
       LATITUDES FROM 0600-1800UT.

            GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
       EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
       THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.

            EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV

                             CLASS M    30/30/30
                             CLASS X    05/05/05
                             PROTON     05/05/05
                             PCAF       GREEN

            GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV

                        A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                10/10/10
                        MINOR STORM           05/05/05
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
                        B.  HIGH LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                10/10/10
                        MINOR STORM           05/05/05
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7325  S17W78  334  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7326  S07W88  344  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7330  S08W10  266  0460 DKI  10  031 BETA-GAMMA
7332  S23W68  324  0120 DAO  10  004 BETA
7334  N13E47  209  0220 DAO  09  013 BETA
7335  S17E50  206  0380 DAO  09  010 BETA
7329  S16W40  296                    PLAGE
7333  N06E04  252                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 NOVEMBER TO 10 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7315 N06   130


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
1416  1417  1424                      120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
07/ 1613              1620       S19W67   DSF
07/ 1621     1634     1705       S22W63   LDE    C3.7   43


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
66   N26W43 N03W48 N15W61 N29W45  313  ISO   POS   011 10830A
67   N45E87 N40E87 N48E39 N48E57  203  ISO   POS   019 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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