From: cshi@cs.ulowell.edu (Chunde Shi)
Subject: Trade Talk and War of Nerve
Organization: University of Massachusetts at Lowell Computer Science
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 23:03:03 GMT

As sino-u.s. trade talk is at stalmate, a lot of things suddenly popped up(last
3 weeks):
   1. "World" Bank: China's environment is a disaster, "60% of drink water 
       are contaminated with human wast", China will soo run out of empty land
      for gabage piling. As a student of geography, I say the report is a jork.
   2. A Population Crisis organization based in Washinton reported that
     CHina's population control policy has "failed", because by the end of this
       centry china will add 150 millioin population, a brazil.
   3. Conditional MFN sufaced again in Cogress;
   4. U.S. claimed sale of F-16, though Taiwan's air force general said F-16
      is "too old", bought 60 Franch fighter(Mirage 2000).
   5. U.S. claimed again the "right: to investigate prison labor products 
    exort(who do you think yu are?);
Although it might be too hasty to say those events are aimed at trade talk to
break CHina side's confidence make chinese negotiator annoyed then lose the
strong will to guard China's interests, it is hard to convince
people(especiall me) that those things happened are only coincidence. Let me 
quote Bush's words with regard "new world order". "For American to be safe and
strong, we must meet the defining callenge of the 1990s: to win the economic
competition--to win the peace. We must be a military superpower, an economic
superpower, and an export superpower." What is "millitary superpower" for?
General Colin Powell, Chaiman of the Joint Chiefs fo Staff, said: "I want to
be the biggest bully on the block.". We can see the "millitary superpower" is
for "export superpower". For U.S. to be "export superpower", some nation(s)
has to be "import superpoverty". U.S. is looking out for prey. Bush said "
the emergence of a global economy. .. We must seize every opportunity to open
new markets, particularly those with the greatest potential for expansion".
China is at dawn of economic leap. Peopl is about to buy more expensive items.
look at the loundry list U.S. presented to CHinese trade negotiators. it told
me that except the grain sale, all others are expensive items like auto, PC, 
home appliance. U.S. is targeting at the potentially incrediabl size of
market. But China's own industry capability for auto, PC, home appliances are
growing as much as 100% annually, but still could not meet the demands. 
Those industries are back bone of a nation's economy, ultmately a nation's
strength. Those industries, even though booming in China, are at infant stage
every vulnerable. Influx of foreign competition will kill those chinese
industries. The importance of those industries to china is more than Taiwan 
to CHina. As U.S. did in second half of 19th centry, exporting to China, killed
CHina's barely new-born industries. Kept Chinese doing menial works while 
importing major products from U.S. and Britain. U.S. are trying to do that
again  this time. Let CHina be shoes, textile exporter while U.S. took CHina's
more important markets: auto, PC, home appliance.
I hope China will not cave in on trade talk. even at expense of 
  1. U.S. suport Taiwan independent;
  2. lose MFN;
For the first, we should not worry too much. Taiwan could not fly away. As
long as China is going to be strong, nobody can stop us.
For the second, China should have long before prepare herself to distance away
from U.S. geting closer to Germany, which seemed to have guts to say no to
U.S. even though currently is overwhelmed by the Unification. Stay away from 
the bully, that was the listen I learned when I was in my childhood.

I urge my fellow Chinese overseas and in China to call or write to Chinese
**********************************************************************
government, asking not gave up CHina's long term vital interests for the sake of 
temporary ease of tension. The Oct.12 deadline set by U.S. need to be ignored.
If U.S. is about to do what is claimed: 100% import tariff on $3.9 billion
chinese goods. China should do it for U.S. 100% export tariff on CHinese
textile going to U.S.. The winter is about to come, the order for those
Textile must have been long done. Increase tariff on those products, CHina
could collect some custom duty. the price for thoe products in U.S. will be
high, Americans may have to spend more on neccesity(clothing), spare less
money on other goods, then will worsen the recession. Even though China may
lose some exports of those products, becuase of the custom duty, may not lose
reneve on them, turn those revenue back to CHinese companiese in term of tax
examption, help them sell their products cheaper to other nations. 

Number to call:
 State Council:                86-1-335987
 Chinese Embassy               202-328-2500


Chunde Shi