From: king@cogsci.ucsd.EDU (Jonathan King)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Another stat-drones predictions (was Re: My predictions)
Summary: can't find the Huckaby predictions form to mail 'em in
Keywords: predictions, stat-head, controversy?
Date: 6 Apr 92 01:00:52 GMT
Organization: University of California, San Diego

peppler@ux1.cso.uiuc.edu (Randy Peppler) writes:
>Based on gut feeling more than anything else:
>
> [set of decent but incorrect (:-)) predictions deleted]

Well, I would like to stick out my neck, too, for several reasons.
First of all, I can't find my copy of the Gary Huckaby Official Usenet
Lousy Predictions Contest (GHOUL-PC) entry form yet, so I feel like I
should "notarize" my views while there is still time.  Second, I think
some of my picks will look surprising, and could generate some dialog
(yeah, sure).  And third, I have out-predicted the Net at Large for
the last two years, and this might even possibly mean something...

AL EAST

Boston
Toronto
Detroit
Baltimore
Milwaukee
Cleveland
New York

Yes, I ate way too much Yaz bread as a kid to pretend to be objective
about this division.  But I still feel that the Red Sox will score 800
runs, and their pitching is good enough to be able to turn that into
90+ wins.  Toronto looks strong, but their top starters are older than
Boston's, and I don't think their offense is nearly as good.  But I
wouldn't be shocked if they won.  Detroit will both score and give up
800 runs, Dan Gladden or no Dan Gladden.  I still don't understand how
Baltimore managed to play so badly last year, and I expect them to do
better this year; hey, they lost "Jackman" Johnson, didn't they?  The
Orioles are actually somewhat of a wild-card in my mind, though, since
it's unclear what the park will really do to hitters overall.  I have
grave doubts about Milwaukee's chances this year, since I still don't
see a real pitching staff and yet I don't see them a real offense
either, while people just keep on getting older.  I still don't know
how they managed to score 799 runs last year.  

Cleveland will be comfortably below .500, but I expect their offense
to be much improved while I don't see their pitching being much worse.
Since the beginning of last year, they have replaced their entire
infield, and while some of their moves are easy to criticize, there is
no question that this is a better team than last year's nightmare.  I
didn't really *want* to pick the Yankees last, but they didn't do well
last year, I'm not impressed with their team, and I really don't
understand their plan at all.  As a Red Sox fan, I'm also really happy
that George Steinbrenner is trying to muscle his way back into the
picture...

AL WEST

Chicago
Seattle
Minnesota
Texas
Kansas City
Oakland
California

To be honest, I could *conceive* of any non-California team in this
division winning it, but it strikes me that Chicago has the best
chance to roll over the division.  Some pitching, some defense, some
hitting, and Frank Thomas will do a lot for you.  I may regret picking
Seattle this high, but they have more up-side potential than the other
teams in the West.  Minnesota looks pretty good, too, but I have to
believe they got seriously lucky last year, and I don't see them
improving enough so that an ordinary amount of luck could give them
the pennant over, say, Chicago or Seattle.  If I thought Texas had any
pitching staff at all, I'd like them better, but they look like the
Detroit of the West.  KC looks no better than .500 on paper to me
despite the winter moves, and I guess I would be very surprised to see
them contend.  This is another team whose plan I can't really figure out.

As Gary Huckaby advises, this is the year that Oakland will really
tank out.  I know that spring training stats don't mean much, but
Oakland's pitching staff was quite bad, and the spring numbers look
absolutely abysmal; youngsters *might* help, but the ship is sinking
very fast.  The offense should be okay, but everybody's getting older
rather than better, which is a worry.

While some red-headed Bay-area baseball fans expect the A's to finish
last, that job will fall to the California Angels.  What hasn't gone
wrong?  Finley may have arm problems, they lost Joyner and Winfield,
they traded 20-somethings for 30-somethings, they auditioned the
Jackman, the Wackman, and the Bashman for their pitching staff, Don
Robinson will start for them, and might have Bobby Rose, Lee Stevens,
and Gary Gaetti starting in the infield.  Meanwhile, interesting
winter pickup Alvin Davis has been having a hideous spring, and may
really be finished.  This team should be Big Time Brutal.

NL EAST

Pittsburgh
New York
Montreal
St. Louis
Philadelphia
Chicago

I'm a big Pirates fan, so my opinions about this division aren't
entirely objective.  Still, the Bucs won 98 games last year, and took
the division by 14 games.  Yes, Bonilla and Smiley are gone, but the
pitching is still strong, while I project a loss of only about 25 runs
on offense since I expect Bonds, Bell and Merced to all improve some,
while I don't expect the Bucs to any untreatable steep fall-offs
anywhere else.  Maybe I'm just a homer.  I'm picking New York second
because either their current offense will produce runs, or they'll
just be forced to bring up Donnels and Jeromy Burnitz; I expect the
pitching to be good enough to contend.  Montreal made some amazing
off-season moves, the effects of which were to get rid of lots of
below-average offensive players, get rid of almost all their
below-average pitchers, and pick up some useful players in the
bargain.  Plus, if they end up in contention, they have more goodies
to trade away for an over-the-top player than others in the division.
Offense should be way up, while pitching might also improve some; this
is not a last place team.  I don't think the Cards will contend this
year, but I don't see them being as potentially bad as the Phils or
Cubs, either.  On the other hand, I've never done a good job
predicting where the Cards will finish in the past.  

I don't understand how the Phillies did so well last year since their
offense blew chunks while their pitching walked everybody who stepped
in against them.  I expect their pitching will improve this year, but
their offense worries me a lot.  Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic;
their pitching prospects do have potential, and they have been trying
to unload roster-clogging veterans, but if you think your future is
Wes Chamberlain, you could be in trouble.

But speaking of pessimism, let's talk about the Cubs.  Sure, it's
possible they might not finish last, but they were bad last year and
then studiously ignored their weaknesses.  The Cubs don't get on base,
but then they trade for Sammy Sosa.  They got burned by signing an
(injury-prone) 30-something pitcher for 1991, so they do something
very similar for 1992.  Basically, the Cubs did about what I expected
they would do last year, and I don't see why they won't repeat this
year--only this year, that will put them into sixth.

NL WEST

Atlanta
Los Angeles
Cincinnati
Houston
San Diego
San Fransisco

The Braves got seriously lucky last year, but this year they have a
chance to replace their "lucky" players with talented players almost
everywhere except for third base, while the pitching is still
outstanding, as in "3.17 road ERA".  I also have a hunch they will
obtain Barry Bonds, which is something they probably have a better
opportunity to do than almost any other team.  Los Angeles could also
be quite strong this year, although I'm a bit worried about their
infield; but not their outfield.  Everybody is wild about Cincinnati
this year, and I guess I'm just missing something.  They didn't score
a lot of runs last year, and I don't see their scoring going up much
or at all this year.  The pitching did improve some, but I don't think
that Swindell will end up being the man who wins them the pennant,
since I don't think they're going to improve the needed 20 games or so
over 1991.  If you split the difference, they're third.  People will
think I'm *nuts* for picking the Astros fourth, but they are a young
team who will be much better this year than last, although I wish they
would lose Raphael Ramirez.  I wish I could be happier about San
Diego, my current "home" team, but I'm not.  We have stars or
potential stars like McGriff, Fernandez, Sheffield, Gwynn, Benes,
Hurst, and Harris, a couple decent players, and then a bunch of real
stiffs.  Worse yet, Hurst, Gwynn, and Fernandez are all getting older
and have all been injured in the last year.  

As far as the Giants go, they only had an average offense last year,
so they traded away Kevin Mitchell, and unless their clubhouse
chemistry somehow involves nuclear forces, I don't see how they are
going to improve it this year.  (Royce Clayton will help, but he won't
replace Mitchell.)  And despite getting some pitching in return for
Mitchell, the rest of their squad is getting older, so I don't really
expect much net improvement there either.  The Giants probably won't
lose 100 games, but I would be pretty stunned to see them finish at
.500 or better.  Expect major front office and managerial carnage.

Overall, I have to say that predicting the races this year seems much
harder than it has been the last couple of years.  Roster volatility
seems to be greater, and there are fewer "no-brainer" picks (e.g.,
like the 1991 Astros and Indians) than in the past.  But it's also
plausible that last year's World Series matchup has made it seem like
anything is possible at any time--not just at the beginning of April.
I don't know about you, but the suspense is already killing me.

jking