From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Tom Kelly: Tiger Hater
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Distribution: usa
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 19:50:02 GMT

In article <1992Jul22.164335.2917@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>In article <1992Jul20.192717.27690@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>In article <1992Jul20.155511.2436@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>
>I am pointing out that there is NOT a 1 to 1 correspondence between these
>things that "mean more to the team" and team scoring (SLG and OBP). If they
>mean so much, Baltimore shoulld be outscoring Minnesota AND Detroit; in fact
>they trail by quite a few runs. And I am openly ridiculing the contention
>that Milligan is a better hitter tahn Fielder.

Last year?  I would agree.  But this year?  It's hard to tell what
Milligan *would* do if he were playing every day and batting leadoff.
But it looks to me like he *might* be one of the top half-dozen
leadoff hitters in the game.  This year, Fielder has not been a top
anything.  (He's maybe the 10th best cleanup-type hitter in the
league.  Of course, cleanup hitters are generally more valuable than
leadoff hitters.  But still, I could make a case for Milligan's being
more valuable.)

The problem is that Milligan *isn't* batting leadoff.  He isn't even
batting in front of decent hitters!  That .400+ OBP is *totally*
*wasted*.  While Fielder is able to make full use of his SLG.

Still, *despite* batting in the wrong place in the lineup, Milligan
has (through the All-Star break) .38 RP/out compared to Fielder's .40
RP/out.  It isn't *that* much of a stretch to think that *IF* Milligan
had played every day for the entire year and *IF* he were batting
leadoff (instead of batting in front of those notable sluggers
Orsulak, Gomez, and McLemore) that he might have RP totals as
impressive as Fielder's.

Actually, that would be a stretch.  There's really no way to compare
leadoff hitters with cleanup hitters using R/RBI.  Making it difficult
to compare Milligan and Fielder directly on those terms.

You may find the thought laughable that Milligan has been as good a
hitter as Fielder this year.  But suppose you wanted somebody to bat
#1 or #2 in the lineup?  Would you take Fielder or Milligan?  I would
*definitely* choose Milligan.  Similarly, if I were looking for
somebody to bat #4/#5, I'd choose Fielder.  (If I had to choose
between them for a #3 hitter, I'd cringe and probably take Milligan,
but that's another matter...)

They are both good hitters.  Sparky Anderson realizes that Fielder is
not a leadoff type, and so bats him cleanup.  Johnny Oates doesn't
realize that Milligan is *not* a cleanup type, and so bats him in an
RBI position.  Ugh.

>I'm not arguing with you. But it does seem like there's a lot more to
>scoring than SLG and OBP on a team basis.

True.  On a team basis.  But team != individual.

>BTW, you are dancing very close to saying that a
>#4 hitter has a "job" (I agree), when we are assured that his job is merely
>to help his team win games and that job is better expressed in OBP and
>SLG than anything else.

I both agree and disagree here...  Walks are valuable, even for
cleanup hitters.  Home runs are valuable, even for leadoff hitters.
Just the *weight* of value depends on the position in the lineup.
This is why Milligan *is* a better hitter than Fielder.  While
simultaneously Fielder *is* a better hitter than Milligan.  They
are close in "abstract value", and suited to different positions
in the lineup.

Given the choice between them, I would take Fielder.  But I would base
that decision more on their ages and on their 1990/1991 performances
than on the difference in their 1992 offense.  Unlike some people, I
see nothing wrong with having a good-OBP lardass leading off,
especially on a good HR team.  And so I see Milligan as being a
valuable property.

Fielder's slugging doesn't entirely excuse his lack of OBP.  But while
I would normally trade something like 1.3 points of SLG for 1 point of
OBP, in the case of a #4/#5 hitter, I might only be willing to trade
.8 points of SLG for 1 point of OBP.

I still think that the job is best expressed in OBP and SLG.  And I
still think that OPS is a good estimate of an "abstract" value.  But
given the choice between Milligan and Fielder for the cleanup spot,
I'll take that SLG.  Even if Milligan's OPS is .005 higher.  :-)

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
Quantrill gets his shot at the bigs.... 	tedward@cs.cornell.edu