Newsgroups: bit.listserv.biosph-l
Date:         Fri, 4 Sep 1992 22:13:11 +0200
Reply-To:     Jan Schloerer <schloerer@RZMAIN.RZ.UNI-ULM.DE>
From:         Jan Schloerer <schloerer@RZMAIN.RZ.UNI-ULM.DE>
Subject:      Climate change: annotated IPCC bibliography

    SUBJECT:  Boring.  Annotated bibliography including an outline of
contents for some recent [1-3] and less recent [4-7] climate change
publications by or related to the IPCC.  Some of the gist of [1-3].

    IPCC:  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set
up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)  and by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).  The IPCC tries to provide
the best possible description of the climate change situation as an
input to the political decision making process.  It is not the task of
the IPCC to select or recommend political actions.  The IPCC formed
three working groups, each of which involves hundreds of researchers
and other specialists from a large number of countries :
    I  Science.   Working Group I is the 'climate' group.  Most of its
participants are climatologists and meteorologists.
   II  Impacts.   Working Group II tries to assess potential environ-
mental and socio-economic impacts of climate change.
  III  Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG).  Working Group III
attempts to lay out a set of response policy options and the factual
basis for those options.

    READABILITY:  Save for [3], the following publications are directed
at non-specialists.  They may also be helpful for professionals wishing
an overview of neighbouring fields; except for [2] they contain lots of
references.  As a moderately climate-exposed layperson, I find most of
[2,4,6,7] as well as the summaries in [1,5] readily accessible. Not all
but some of [1,5] is more difficult.  The authors had to review their
burgeoning and complex field under deadline pressure, with little time
left for niceties.  If you don't know what pycnocline is, don't worry;
the implications of a study or argument are usually made clear.  To me,
the missing index is more irritating.  Although [3] is technical, the
gist should be accessible to non-specialists.

    QUESTION:  Does anyone know whether, when or where (publisher)
supplementary reports by Working Groups II and III are scheduled ?
That is, reports more detailed than [2], rather like [6] and [7] ?



1992  IPCC SUPPLEMENT  [1-3]

[1] Climate Change 1992
    The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment
    Report Prepared for IPCC by Working Group I
    Houghton, J.T.,  B.A. Callander,  S.K. Varney  (eds)
    Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK 1992.   xii + 200 pages
    ISBN 0-521-43829-2 paperback

    Reviews climatological work up to early 1992.  Contains  "The 1992
    IPCC Supplement: Scientific Assessment"  (also printed in [2])  plus
    about 150 pages of background material, including references:
       A    Greenhouse gases
       A1     Sources and sinks
       A2     Radiative forcing of climate
       A3     Emissions scenarios for IPCC: an update
       B    Climate modelling, climate prediction and model validation
       C    Observed climate variability and change
    From the preface: "The Supplement does not cover the full range
    of topics addressed by the 1990 report [5] and should be read in
    conjunction with, rather than in place of, that report.  ...
    The text of the Supplement was agreed in January 1992    ...
    It can  ...  be considered as an authoritative statement of the
    contemporary views of the international scientific community."

[2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  (WMO, UNEP)
    1992 IPCC Supplement.   February, 1992.   70 pages
    IPCC Secretariat, World Meteorological Organization
    Case Postale 2300,  CH-1211  Geneve  2,  Switzerland

    Summarizes recent work of Working Groups I, II and III.
    Almost no references.  Contains, among others :
                                                       by Working Group
    Scientific assessment                                           I
    Assessment of potential impacts of climate change              II
    Energy and industry related issues                            III
    Agriculture and forestry related issues                       III
    Vulnerability to sea level rise                               III

[3] Wigley, T.M.L.  &  S.C.B. Raper
    Implications for climate and sea level
    of revised IPCC emissions scenarios
    Nature 357 (28 May 1992), 293-300

    A supplement to the supplement of Working Group I [1].  Investigates
    implications of the new IPCC emissions scenarios, of uncertainties
    in carbon cycle modelling, and of the likely cooling effects of
    anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and stratospheric ozone depletion,
    which [1] analyses only briefly.



1990  SECOND WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE

[4] Climate Change:  Science, Impacts and Policy
    Proceedings of the Second World Climate Conference
    Jaeger, J.  &  H.L. Ferguson  (eds)
    Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK 1991.   xiv + 578 pages
    ISBN 0-521-42630-8 paperback      ISBN 0-521-41631-8 hardback

    Held at Geneva in fall 1990, the conference served to review the
    World Climate Programme, taking into account the 1990 IPCC Report.
    Moreover it included a ministerial meeting. Many of the contributions
    focus on gaps in our knowledge and on difficulties in closing them.
    Narrowing the uncertainties or nature's response: which will arrive
    first ?  The growth in understanding is now greater than at any time
    in the past. Even so, the societal need for insights may grow faster
    than the scientific community will be able to supply them.  Example,
    provided by Wigley and Raper:  Unequivocal detection of the enhanced
    greenhouse effect need not, per se, improve our knowledge of the
    climate's ultimate response.  Vice versa, unless considerably more
    becomes known about the climate system, a cooling of the earth's
    surface by 0.2 oC up to 2005 may still be compatible with an eventual
    warming exceeding the present best guess.  Contains, among others:

      Highlights of the 1990 IPCC Assessment [5-7]      about 130 pages
      Overview of the World Climate Programme             "    30 pages
      Climate research                                    "    65 pages
      Climate change and socio-economic activities        "   190 pages
        (Water / Agriculture and food / Oceans, fisheries
        and coastal zones / Energy / Land use and urban
        planning / Human dimensions / Environment and
        development / Forests / Integrated studies)
      Task groups and consultation group reports          "    55 pages
      Ministerial meeting                                 "    35 pages



1990  IPCC ASSESSMENT  [5]-[7]

    The Working Groups were set up in November 1988.  They worked in
    parallel, and the entire assessment took place in less than two
    years.  There are some inconsistencies across the three reports.
    Due to deadline pressure, the reports of Working Groups II and III
    do not reflect some late revisions in the report of Working Group I.

[5] Climate Change  -  The IPCC Scientific Assessment
    Report Prepared for IPCC by Working Group I
    Houghton, J.T.,  G.J. Jenkins,  J.J. Ephraums  (eds.)
    Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK 1990.   xl + 365 pages
    ISBN 0-521-40720-6 paperback      ISBN 0-521-40360-X hardback

    After a policymaker's summary, there are the following sections :
       1  Greenhouse gases and aerosols
       2  Radiative forcing of climate
       3  Processes and modelling
       4  Validation of climate models
       5  Equilibrium climate change
       6  Time-dependent greenhouse-gas-induced climate change
       7  Observed climate variations and change
       8  Detection of the greenhouse effect in the observations
       9  Sea level rise
      10  Effects on ecosystems
      11  Narrowing the uncertainties

[6] Climate Change  -  The IPCC Impacts Assessment
    Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group II
    Tegart, W.J.McG.,  G.W.Sheldon,  D.C.Griffiths  (eds.)
    Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra/New York(?) 1990
    ISBN 0-644-13497-6 paperback      xvi + 274 pages

    After a policymakers' summary, there are seven sections :
       I  Scenarios used in the report
      II  Agriculture and forestry
     III  Natural terrestrial ecosystem
      IV  Hydrology and water resources
       V  Human settlement; the energy, transport and industrial
          sectors; human health; air quality and changes in
          Ultraviolet-B radiation
      VI  Oceans and costal zones
     VII  Seasonal snow cover, ice and permafrost

[7] Climate Change  -  The IPCC Response Strategies
    [ anonymous, prepared by Working Group III ]
    Island Press, Washington, D.C. 1991    lxii + 270 pages
    ISBN 0-55963-102-3 paperback      ISBN 0-55963-103-1 cloth

    After a policymakers' summary, the topics of the report are :
       Introduction / Emissions scenarios
       Subgroup reports:  Energy and industry / Agriculture, forestry,
          and other human activities / Coastal zone management /
          Resource use and management
       Implementation measures:  Public education and information /
          Technology development and transfer / Economic (market)
          measures / Financial mechanisms / Legal and institutional
          mechanisms



1992  IPCC SUPPLEMENT :   SOME OF THE GIST

Working Group I:  Atmospheric concentrations of manmade greenhouse gases
are substantially increasing.  The sensitivity of global mean surface
temperature to doubling CO2 is unlikely to lie outside the range 1.5 to
4.5 oC with a present best guess of 2.5 oC. There are many uncertainties
in the predictions with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional
patterns of climate change.  Given our incomplete knowledge of climate,
the possibility of surprises cannot be ruled out.  Unequivocal detection
of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a
decade or more.  Global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3
to 0.6 oC over the last 100 years.  1990 and 1991 are the warmest years
in the record.  Warming over much of the Northern Hemisphere continents
(China, USA, USSR) has been found to be largely characterized by increa-
ses in minimum (night-time) rather than maximum (daytime) temperatures.
Stratospheric ozone depletion and, in the Northern Hemisphere, manmade
sulphate aerosols may set off a significant part of the enhanced green-
house warming [1,2].  Taking into account these cooling effects brings
observed and modelled temperature increase into closer agreement [3].

Working Group II:  Assessment of impacts is difficult because reliable
regional estimates of climate change, including critical factors like
precipitation and soil moisture, are presently not available.  Recent
studies do not radically alter the conclusions of the 1990 report [6].
The concern has been reinforced that drought is the area in which climate
change poses the greatest risk for agriculture, so that arid and semi-
arid regions are likely to be most vulnerable.  Although the agricultural
production system should be able to adapt to climate change, the cost
could be substantial, and the impact on agriculture may be serious if
warming is at the upper end of the projected range.  Some scientists
emphasize that increased CO2 levels enhance photosynthesis and efficient
water use by some crops, as seen in controlled settings; others remain
skeptical whether these benefits will be seen under field conditions.
New analyses support the 1990 conclusion that the impacts of climate
change on (managed) forests could have significant socio-economic
impacts.  For natural terrestrial ecosystems, recent studies continue to
suggest that the rate of climatic changes will be the major factor in
determining the type and degree of impacts, that changes may be faster
than the ability of some species to respond, and that species and
ecosystem responses may be sudden. [2]

Working Group III:  The Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) is assembling
a data base (Technology Characterization Inventory) on energy-related and
greenhouse gas control technologies with special emphasis on technologies
of potential interest to developing countries.  An US/Japan Working Group
on Methane has assessed technological options for limiting methane
emissions; options are available for many major anthropogenic methane
sources.  Some other energy and industry related tasks are still under
way.  Part of the group's work on greenhouse gas emissions has been
incorporated into the report and revised scenarios of Working Group I.
The potential of forestry options like afforestation seems still somewhat
uncertain.  The Coastal Zone Management Subgroup has started to assess
the vulnerability and needs of coastal countries. [2]


Jan Schloerer          schloerer@rzmain.rz.uni-ulm.de
Klinische Dokumentation           Uni Ulm
Postfach 3880     DW-7900 Ulm     Germany