From: joe@athena.mit.edu (Joseph C Wang)
Subject: Re: DATA: largest world economies
Organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 08:35:08 GMT

In article <1992Dec14.221718.4168@cbnews.cb.att.com> liaohen@cbnews.cb.att.com (Heng-Hsin Liao) writes:
>Tell me with what China is able to invade Taiwan?

If the PRC is ever stupid enough to try a military action against
Taiwan, it would most likely be in the form of a blockade.  You might
be able to break the blockade to bring in essential supplies, but you
will not be able to convince foreign investors to get supplied from
war zone and Taiwan's economy (which is heavily export dependent) will
be ruined.

Of course, any such action would be the end of any possibility of
unification, and so I'm trying to establish a working compromise that
is acceptable to the Taiwan electorate, so that it will not happen.

In order to prevent an invasion, Taiwan will have to do two things....

1) Spend money on military, and

2) Invest heavily on the Mainland so that an invasion would be
economic suicide for the Mainland.  It is true that investing on the
Mainland will make Taiwan less independent.  Heavy Taiwanese
investment on the Mainland means that the Mainland will have some
influence on affairs in Taiwan.  On the other hand, it means that
Taiwan will have some influence on affairs in the Mainland.  Since
both places will have influences and interests in the other place, it
means that both will think about the actions and reactions from the
other, and that you are likely to have peace break out.

>Taiwanese will do what we can to prevent a war. 

In order to prevent a war, you need to take into account the opinions
and interests of all sides.  The Mainland would consider a declaration
of independence extremely provocative and would likely react badly.
If you would have people support the idea of a Republic of Taiwan, you
will have to convince them that it will provide more benefits than
risks.  Some in Taiwan, consider changing ROC to ROT good thing in and
of itself.  Judging from the last election results, most do not.

If you want people to die for ROT, you must explain why ROT is so good
and ROC is so bad that death is called for to change it.  If you can't
explain why ROT is so good and why ROC is so bad, then I don't think
that you should expect people to risk their lives and livelihood for
the change.

My deepest desire is for peace.  I have relatives and friends on both
sides of the straits.  If war breaks out, my cousins will literally be
trying to kill each other.  Already once this century, war has caused
members of my family to try and kill each other.  I have no wish to
have it happen again.

But to prevent war and solve the political problem of Taiwan, all
sides must recognize each others point of view and be willing to
compromise.  In my view, a "two China policy" with increasing economic
cooperation is the best path to peace and to a better life for peoples
on both sides of the straits.  "Two China" seems acceptable to the
Taiwan electorate, to the current government on Taiwan, and the
People's Republic seems willing to unofficially tolerate it, if it
means greater economic interlinks with the ROC.  I think it is
workable compromise that will someday lead to a "one China" which will
benefit those on both sides of the straits.

>Kind of curious, China hates (or dislikes) Imperialism. And now you
>establish new Imperialism. Isn't it a shame?

Do not mistake my views for those of other people.  In order to deal
with a situation, I must understand the views of those I disagree
strongly with.  This includes the views of the Beijing government.

If I were in charge of the Beijing government, I would immediately
accept Lee Deng-Hui's offer of joint PRC/ROC recognition, offer to
jointly reduce the weapons in the Taiwan Straits, and set up joint
committees on economic cooperation.  I would also accelerate the pace
of political reform on the Mainland.  After a ten to twenty year
transition period in which the Taiwan electorate can be convinced that
their interests can be served by new all-Chinese government, I would
have brought up the idea of abolishing both the PRC and ROC, and
creating a new all-Chinese government.

But I am not in charge of the Beijing government and I do not have
access to the Beijing government.  I do have access to some of the
Taiwan electorate and to some members of the Mainland, and so I am
using this access to convince them that "two China" is the best
solution to the political status of Taiwan.  

I, personally, have no power.  The only way that my ideas can be
accepted is by the force and logic of the arguments I present.  The
only way that my ideas can be defeated is showing their flaws.

Is this not the essence of what we are trying to achieve?


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