From: kolt@quads.uchicago.edu (Matt K/Gonzo)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Pai Gow Poker
Keywords: 2.5, not
Date: 15 Apr 92 15:52:06 GMT
Reply-To: kolt@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations

In article <1992Apr15.072014.22132@shinobu.sgi.com> stantz@sgi.com (Mark Stantz) writes:
[much stuff about That Horse Race Game [tm] deleted]
>	A few words about pai-gow poker...  Nobody cares whether or not
>you spread ridiculously in this game. 
I would hope not! In fact, I would think that they'd encourage you to bet 
wildly. Can you imagine attracting heat in PGP!!  Incidentally, a lot of 
casinos are offering this game; I similarly like it as a way to stop thinking 
about BJ for a while. However, I flat bet $5, and so won't play if the minimum
is over $5. Main St Sta had a $5 table, as did the IP, where I no longer will
play, thanx to y'all posting about the owner. Don't forget to boycott the IP,
guys. 
 
>I've tried betting $10, letting
>it ride when I win until I've got about $40 on the table, then dropping
>back to $5 bets.  Occasionally jumping from $5 to $30 and stuff like that.
>Keep track of what your average bet is; the house PC is exactly 2.5%, so
>figure out how much you're willing to pay for the privilege of playing each 
>hand, multiply by forty, and the rest is all hocus pocus.  I am willing to
>pay about 25 cents a hand provided that the cocktail waitress is showing
>up with reasonable frequency, as the free booze offsets my effective playing
>costs.  Anyways, while betting erratically, BS it up with the dealer.  Talk 
>about hot streaks and so forth while shifting from $5 to $30, and about the 
>dealer being due when you drop from $40 to $5.  If at all possible, do this 
>while the pit crew is nearby.  Change the amount of your bet after a push 
>while the floorperson is bringing in a new deck.  Act superstitious.  Then 
>wander over to a blackjack table in the same pit.  Spread like a wild man.  
>Jump from $5 to $40 in positive counts, from $40 back to $10 in bad ones.  
>Just play a couple of decks so they don't have time to catch on.  See what 
>you can get away with once they're used to your peculiarities. [ Warning: 
>you can loose big bucks this way because of the variance, so this is probably 
>not a good idea if your bankroll is small.  Variance is a bitch. ]
Well, Mark, your strategy is sort of interesting, but it seems to me that there
are easier ways to fool the pit. But I like your style. :-) On the other hand,
I don't like your math! My raw guesstimate of the house advantage for PGP is about 6-7%, since you lose your full bet when you lose, you win 95% of your bet
when you win, AND it's not an even game: you lose a tie in the small hand. So,
what do the rec.gambling.math.weenies think? I have a hunch that it's about 
6.5%, but I'd love a real guess as to the advantage...
But it is probably THE game with the lowest variance, as about 40% of hands are
pushes supposedly. :-)
See ya,
Matt



-- 
Matt Koltnow   B0 t-- w- c+ g+ k s+ e r- p     "Payin' anything 
Email: kolt@midway.uchicago.edu                 To roll the dice
Ntalk: kolt@ellis.uchicago.edu  (or @quads)     Just one more time."--N. Schon 
It's a bad sign when security thrice your size monitors your roulette play.