From: pires@vxcrna.cern.ch (ALVES)
Subject: Re: Camarada Gonzalo (Peru)
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: European Organization for Nuclear Research, CERN
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 02:52:00 GMT

In article <1992Sep14.193954.37494@dcc.uchile.cl>, psilva@dcc.uchile.cl (No sean SAPOS!!) writes...
> 
>FELICIDADES!!! Y SALUDOS A LOS HERMANOS PERUANOS por la captura de
>ese terrorista!!! que tantas muertes causo' en el Peru!. 
> 


	I'm sorry, but I think that you are celebrating too early.  Even
the Bush Administration is careful on his analysis.  If Fujimori and his
police are also in a urge to celebrate, it may be fatal for them.  If
anything will change soon in Peru is only more blood and violence. 

	I believe that Guzman expected to be arrested any moment, and
was prepared for that.  The fact that he didn't offer resistance and
kept his humor ("My turn to lose," he said when arrested) is an
indication of that.  And so was prepared his organization.  I am sure
his organization has plans to free him soon, at any cost (that means, 
independently of the number of lives they have to sacrifice). 

	On the other side, this looks like a mouse-and-rat game.  The 
newspapers report that Guzman has a skin disease (psoriasis) and could
not live in the high altitude of the Andes where are most of bases of
the PCP (they call themselves Partido Comunista del Peru, not Sendero
Luminoso).  So he moved to Lima in 1974 (yes, this also astonishes me,
but it is what I read), which is also the only place where he could find
medication.  Incredibly, he survived 18 years in spite of his disease
and the police efforts to capture him.  He escaped at least twice, in
June 1990 and January 1991.  For him this was a calculated risk: he had 
no choice but to live with it.

	He is also well known for his organizational skills (I read that
the PCP is considered the best-organized part of the society).  If he
could organize a powerful organization which spread all over the
country, but particularly in the Andes where he could not live, imagine
how strong is the organization in the capital, where he lived. Actually,
the campaign he was preparing when he was captured was named "Operacion
Conquistar Lima". 

	If you read the newspapers more carefully, you will agree with
me and moderate your celebration.  The New York Times reports that:
"[...] the Bush Administration responded today to the capture of the
rebel leader Abimael Guzman Reynoso with a mixture of satisfaction and
caution [...] Administration officials also noted that Shining Path has
shown enormous resiliency in recent years and has repeatedly spirited
its members out of prisons.  [...]" (The headline is "US Congratulates
Peru Guardedly on Arrest".) 

	On another article, and under headlines as "Blow to Rebels in
Peru, An Elusive Aura is Lost"/"A leader who seemed invincible is now a
captive", the analyst of the Times writes [my underlines]: 

	"Where is own movement goes from here is unclear.  While the
capture of Mr. Guzman is undoubtedly a remarkable achievement for the
Government of President Alberto K. Fujimori, it also carries great
risks."							     -----
-----
	"One is that Shining Path could respond with intensified
violence, further weakening Governmental control and the faltering
economy." 

	"Another is the possibility of an all-out effort to free Mr.
Guzman, whose escape would be a devastating blow to the Government." 
		     --------------------------------------------- 

	"And a trial poses also a risk.  Government officials said
yesterday that it was likely that Mr. Guzman would be tried before a
military tribunal and could be sentenced to death.  Some experts on
Shining Path say his execution would make him a martyr." 
		 ------------------------------------- 

	"``The Shining Path has created such a myth about Guzman, they
sing hymns to him, write poetry to him,'' said Francisco Eguiguren,
assistant director of the Andean Commission of Jurists, a human rights
group.  ``To have him in prison shows failure, disaster.  It would be
	  -----------------------------------------------------------
better if he were killed, it would recreate the hero-myth image.''" 
------------------------ 

	"The group is known to have prepared for his capture [...] Mr.
Guzman built a highly autonomous movement, separated into cells that
operate in conjunction of others of their own.  Thus a loss of his
direction will not necessarily stop the movement from continuing its
fight." 

In an telephonic interview to The Times, a Peruvian, director of the Sol 
Peru Committee (a group that supports the PCP), said that the struggle 
will survive him: 

	"This will demonstrate to the world that what we have in Peru is
a people's war, not a central committee's war. [...] The war has more to
do with a class struggle than with personalities.  [...] The upper class
is opening champagne bottles, but the masses will be spurred to further
action." 

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Disclaimer:  I say what I say, not what I quote. 
Newsgroups: soc.culture.latin-america