From: drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David Robert Walker)
Subject: Re: Can a Good Glove make up for a Dead Bat? (and vice versa)
Organization: University of Virginia
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 23:49:14 GMT

In article <1993Jan6.194742.20061@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>In article <1452@blue.cis.pitt.edu> genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
>>Horrible.  Atrocious.  Whatever comes next in the progression "Good, Bad, 
>>Ugly, ________."
>>
>>Blauser had BY FAR the worst DA among NL shortstops in each of the years
>>1989, 1990, and 1991.  We're talking DAs in the .580 range, when the league
>>is around .630 and the top players around .700 or better.  It doesn't look
>>like a park or staff effect, either, since Belliard was tops in the NL in '91.
>>
>>...which doesn't mean you wouldn't still be better off with Blauser at SS,
>>though, since his bat is so much better than the other options.
>
>Okay -- Blauser is a .580 DA, while Belliard is a .700 DA.
>How many plays do shortstops face a game?  

Looking at the NL 1991 DA numbers, there were 666 plays to shortstop
per team. (Too bad Tim Teufel isn't a shortstop.) A difference of .12
would mean 80 balls turned into outs by the good shortstop that are
singles for the bad shorstop. That would be about 38 runs over the
course of a season.

Belliard's "hitting", projected to 650 PA, is about 42 runs.
Blauser's hitting would be about 84 runs.

So Blauser is +42 runs better on offense, -38 runs on defense, for a
net of +4. Which is an insignificant difference for measurement
purposes, being less than the margin of error.

>
>Can one justify a Lance Johnson or a Sammy Sosa by their glove?  Probably
>less likely in the case of an outfielder, but then again, I vaguely recall
>LJ having a RF about 50% above normal, so I'd be curious to see if his DA
>was also way above average.  

If you look at the numbers directly, the differences are bigger in the
outfield than in the infield. 
But, yes, Johnson was way above average in 91, and so was
Devon White. They were the best two CF in the game that year, and I
figure they were worth 15-20 runs above an average CF. That makes up
for a lot at the plate.
>
>Could a manager, through judicious use of DA, have a secret weapon no one
>else has?  Can you win through great defense?

Teams have. The best team DAs (which, for James fans, is virtually
identical to defensive efficiency) for 88-92 belong to the 90 As, 91
White Sox, 92 Brewers, 91 Jays, and 89 As.  Those 5 teams won an
average of 94 games. 

About those Brewers. They went from roughly league average (actually
slightly below average) in 1991, and changed three positions:

2b was Randolph and Gantner, combined for -3 runs in 1991. Replaced by
Fletcher, who was a +11 for equivalent playing time in 91.

3b was Gantner and Sheffield, combined for -18. Replaced by Seitzer,
who was roughly average in 1991, I think. KC was average in 91, and
Pecota was average. Call him 0.

SS was Spiers, who was -11. Replaced by Listach, who looked very very
good; and given the team improvement, must have been good as well. But
for arguments sake, call him 0. 

That is 43 runs of improvement in the field. The teams improvement in
runs allowed was 140. Of that 140, 24 can be attributed to the league
average going down. 43 is my estimate for fielding (and since I think
Listach was about +10, a conservative estimate.) The park factor
changed from 1.043 to .903; thats a difference of 100. I think extreme
park factors are flukes, so I will cut the difference in half and call
it 50. So, that is 24+43+50=117, which only leaves 23 runs of
improvement for the pitchers.

I'd be very, very careful about ex-Brewer pitchers in next years
Rotiss leagues...

>The year of the Orioles' first great rebound, one of the theories behind it
>was that their defense really picked up, giving much more confidence to the
>pitchers, a virtuous circle and all that.

The team DA for the 89 Os was good, not great. The 90 Os actually had
a better DA. The 91 Os were poor in defense, but good again in 1992;
third in the league, to Milwaukee and Toronto. (Familiar, isn't it?)

Clay D.