From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 08:19:19 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 020, 01/20/93
10.7 FLUX=110.0  90-AVG=141        SSN=065      BKI=3223 3310  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=1.6E+05  FLU10=9.4E+03  PKI=3223 3322  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=034,010,017,027,025,031,005,004   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.8   @ 1314UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 2325UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2055UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1740UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2025UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0930UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55417NT @ 1528UT   BOUTF-MIN=55400NT @ 2000UT  BOUTF-AVG=55410NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+098NT@ 2109UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-008NT@ 0853UT  G7-AVG=+069,+027,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1517UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-008NT@ 2201UT  G6-AVG=+088,+002,+038
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,005,005/015,010,010
    KFCST=3334 4333 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=008,006   27DAY-KP=2333 2221 0223 2231
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All regions on the
       disk were stable and quiet.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. High
       latitudes experienced some isolated minor storm periods from
       0900-1800Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours.
       Conditions should be at quiet to unsettled levels for the
       second and third days.

            Event probabilities 21 jan-23 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 jan-23 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/10/10
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over most regions.
       Some high latitude stations reported isolated minor signal
       degradation, although nothing significant occurred.  Similar
       conditions are expected to persist for the next 72 hours.
       Propagation should increase in stability on 22 and 23 January,
       particularly for transpolar paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7401  S13W18  019  0060 DAO  07  013 BETA
7402  S24W24  025  0010 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7403  N14E04  357  0170 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7406  S14E52  309  0140 DAO  06  010 BETA
7405  S12W25  026                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 JANUARY TO 23 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7388 S07   269
7397 N10   235


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
 19/1441             20/1532   N55E25     DSF
 19/1453             20/1441   S33E34     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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