From: mitch@lsil.com (Mitch Sako)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Money line vs. point spread?
Date: 13 Sep 92 22:36:10 GMT
Reply-To: mitch@lsil.com
Organization: LSI Computing Systems

In article 23504@leland.Stanford.EDU, zwiebel@leland.Stanford.EDU (Jeffrey Zwiebel) writes:
>In article <1992Sep13.085456.18363@lsil.com> mitch@lsil.com writes:
>>If you think about it enough it should become very clear why the house doesn't
>>want bettors ever betting on both sides of a middle.  How would you like it
>>if the opening line was 2.5 and moved to 3.5 and the final score was 10-7?
>>You'd get crucified for sure.  Now, if you get a ton of action on the -2.5,
>>it's certainly more prudent to move the money line to +2.5/+1.10 in order
>>to entice more action to the other side.  You're going to take a bath if
>>the favorite covers anyway but you're not going to have to pay off both
>>sides, now are you?  So you have to lay +1.10 to the dog bettors, it's
>>certainly better than having them lay you 11-10 at +3.5.
>I think you missed my point here.  Sure the house doesn't want me to be 
>able to hold an over 2.5 and an under 3.5 bet on the same game.  But it
>also doesn't want me to hold a -1.1 bet on the favorite and a +1.3 bet
>on the underdog.  Both afford me an arbitrage profit.  In the former 
>(ignoring the vig) I break even unless the team wins by 3, and then I
>win both bets.  Thus I win a "large" amount a small fraction of the
>time and otherwise break even.  In the latter, (once again ignoring the
>house advantage), as long as I bet the right amount on the two games,
>I will win a small amount of money ALL the time.  Until you tell me 
>how responsive demand is to a change in the lines (i.e, by how much
>you have to change the spread or the money line to achieve the desired
>balancing of bets), you can't say anything about in which situation
>our arbitrage better will make more in expectation.

The change in the money line is very strong.  It also depends on the action.
If the imbalance is not significant (that is, wipe out the bookie) then
it is probably only a slight edge to move the moneyline instead of the point
spread.  A few superbowls ago this actually occurred but the bookies took
a bath anyway.  I don't remember which one it was but the bookies didn't
move the moneyline enough (they only moved it to even money instead of 11-10)
in order to draw action.  I feel they got too greedy and wanted to make money
instead of lose less. 
>
>The point is, a better who can anticipate the direction that either
>the line or the odds move, can make money for sure (provided the 
>movement is large enough to offset the house advantage).  The is 
>just as true with the money line as the point spread.   Without 
>specifying how responsive demand is to changes in the two types of 
>lines, one cannot make the statement you make below. 

I believe that it's impossible to middle a moneyline, that is, you can't
bet both sides and make money unless a dog moves to the favorite or vice-
versa where you can get laid + money on both sides.  I doubt this is going
to happen since the opening line is going to have to be severely out of
whack and this just doesn't happen these days. 
>
>>Basically, the opening line was obviously flawed and moving a moneyline
>>instead of the pointspread is going to cost the bookie less money in the
>>long run.
>Yes, a bookie will lose money on a bad opening line.  How he then chooses
>to adjust the line will not allow him to in recoup this money in expectation,
>at best it will allow him to affect the distribution of returns on the game;
>just as a betting scheme won't change the house advantage in roulette, but
>will only change the distribution over returns.

Actually, most lines move .5 or 1.0 points at most.  Anymore than that and
they usually lay off with other bookies, especially in other parts of the
country.  The advantage the bookie has is knowing the true line and the
published line.  That is, supposed the 49ers are 4.5 favorites but the
opening line is 6.5.  If they bookie gets very heavy action -6.5 on the
49ers he has a theoretical 2.0 overlay, right?  The published line is that
number for which equal action will be bet on either side.  Now, if I'm
booking the game at -6.5 and I get a 60-40 split of people laying the -6.5
and I know that they true line (as published by the gurus) then I'm not
going to be too concerned about this since if this happens 100 times during
the season I'm going to make money.


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