From: yali@bnrca (Yawar Ali)
Subject: Re: Election sun rising
Organization: Bell-Northern Research, Ottawa, Ontario, CANADA
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 92 15:42:48 GMT

In article <BuBpMo.I7v@ireq.hydro.qc.ca>, beaurega@ireq.hydro.qc.ca (Denis Beauregard) writes:
|> I don't agree:
|> In article <1992Sep8.195838.18202@bnr.ca> yali@bnrca (Yawar Ali) writes:
|> >My crystal ball shows the following:
|> >
|> >The new constitutional deal passes the referendum.
|> Won't pass.  At less 2 provinces will change there mind and a few
|> Quebec liberal will say there are against, enough so that majority
|> of Quebec, which is against today, will stay again.  And if it does not
|> pass in Quebec, it is useless to pass in Canada :-)
|>

You are correct when you say that if the deal fails to pass in Quebec it
doesn't matter whether it passes in ROC. However, don't underestimate the
combined power of the recession, constitutional fatigue, and sophisticated
Federal and Provincial Liberal propaganda campaigns to dissuade Quebecers
from voting "no".
 
|> >Federal elections are held in Spring '93:
|> >BQ disintegrates; PCs sweep Quebec.
|> BQ survives and Quebec is split with BQ/Liberal/PC
|> 
|> >NDP shut out of Ontario; Liberals and PCs split Ont. seats.
|> >Liberals take most Atlantic Canada seats.
|> >Liberals and PCs split Manitoba and Saskatchewan seats.
|> >Reform and PCs fratricide in Alberta, resulting in a virtual NDP sweep.
|> 
|> Are RP and PC the same platform and strong in the same places?
|> If not, seats will split.
|>

Reform and PC appeal to the same voters in Alberta, i.e., the right wing.
Their core values and policies are not very different. They will split 
the redneck vote, not seats.
 
|> >Liberals and Reform split BC seats.
|> >
|> >Result: PC government returns with slim majority, its political base
|> >        now almost entirely restricted to Quebec and Ontario, 
|> >        Mulroney still PM.
|> PC forms a minority government, with help of BQ.  
|> 

If the constitutional deal passes, the BQ will be a spent force.

|> >        Liberals form the opposition, with moderate support across Canada,
|> >        except Quebec and Alberta, with a new leader.
|> >        NDP reduced to an Alberta rump party, with a new leader.
|> >        Reform elects a few former Social Credit types from BC. 
|> >
|> >Bourassa re-elected as Quebec Premier soon afterwards.
|> PQ changes leader and is elected.  PQ begins negociation for a true
|> new deal : all power for Quebec and Quebec decides in her land.
|> Assimetrical federalism will be the debate (artificial renewal did
|> fail, don't you agree?).
|> 

Why would the PQ change its leader if the deal fails to pass, as you think 
it will?
As for assymetrical federalism, I agree that it would be preferable to the
direction that the current deal takes. Unfortunately, assymetrical federalism
seems to be politically unacceptable in ROC, and would be even more so if
the current deal were rejected by Quebec, or indeed if they accepted the 
deal now but came back asking for more soon afterwards.

--- 
Yawar Ali  				
Bell-Northern Research				EMail: yali@bnr.ca
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada	K1Y 4H7			(613-)763-7741
--------Standard Disclaimer: BNR is not responsible for my opinions--------