From: stone@gershwin.cs.unc.edu (Donald Stone)
Newsgroups: rec.games.board
Subject: Re: Eastfront Tinkering
Date: 7 Jan 93 14:41:45
Organization: UNC Department of Computer Science
NNTP-Posting-Host: gershwin.cs.unc.edu
In-reply-to: dodd@csl.sri.com's message of 6 Jan 1993 15:26:20 -0800


In article <dodd.726362346@pekoe> dodd@csl.sri.com (Chris Dodd) writes:

   stone@gershwin.cs.unc.edu (Donald Stone) writes:
   >In a recent game of Eastfront (Columbia Games), it was rudely pointed out to
   >me that if German wants to take Leningrad, there's nothing the Russian can do
   >about it.  This is particularly true during the opening turns of any scenario
   >from Winter 41 through Summer 43 (my rude surprise was in Summer 43).

   This is not my experience at all; its almost impossible for the Germans
   to take Leningrad (unless less the Russian player foolishly leaves it
   ungarrisoned and vulnerable to a surprise German blitz, as I did
   once).  It takes a massive attack to inflict even 2 casualties (triple
   defense) and it is almost impossible for the Germans to cut Leningrad
   out of supply and reduce it that way (They have to circle all the way
   around lake Ladoga to cut the rail line off the north board edge).  So
   all the Russians need to do is keep at least 3-4 steps there and feed
   in reinforcements if the Germans assault.  If the Germans are doing
   particularly well in 1941 they might just pull it off, because you
   can't spare the troops elsewhere, but with careful Russian play and
   blocking units on critical hexes, the Germans won't be able to get
   there to attack before winter...

   Chris Dodd
   dodd@csl.sri.com

Again, note my comment about the opening turns of any scenario from Winter 41
to Summer 43.  It IS surrounded.  The Russians cannot draw supply off the
north mapedge.  Rail supply must come from the West mapedge (rules aren't here
or I would cite the rule).  

Thus, consider the following:

First turn of the Summer 1943 scenario ... 4 Inf set up in Leningrad
(technically you could set up more there, but that's rather bogus, since
anything over the first unit is out of supply).

The German blitzed.  4 SS-Arm (Triple Fire), 4 Siege (Triple Fire), 4 Arm
(Double Fire), and 4 Inf (Single Fire).  With a 3 Airstrike (Double Fire).

Assume I get two hits (Inf and Arm).  In the first round, he gets

	8 dice at TF
	6 dice at DF
	3 dice at SF

Probabilities say that he gets 6 hits out of this.  That causes two hits to be
taken off my Inf.  In the second round of the blitz, he moves the 3 Inf and 3
Arm out and replaces them with a 4 Inf and 4 Arm.  

I get 2 dice at TF, so assume one hit (on the Inf).

He gets 

	8 dice at TF
	6 dice at DF (the airstrike is a 2)
	3 dice at SF

Again, on average he gets at least 6 more hits, killing the Russian.

And I haven't even had a turn yet.  It has cost him 3 step losses, and 2 HQ
points.  On the next turn, he can strat move the extra units down south.  And
if the luck goes against him on this first turn, I will almost certainly be
down to 1 strength point, and unless I blitz and get a breakthrough on the
first phase (allowing me to reinforce on the second phase) he'll easily kill
Leningrad on the second turn.
	
Don.
--
Donald Stone (stone@cs.unc.edu)