From: bnoble+@cs.cmu.edu (Brian Noble)
Subject: How can the bookmakers favor SC?
Organization: School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon
Distribution: na
Date: Mon, 9 Nov 1992 20:14:09 GMT

In article <1992Nov9.165213.5667@alc.com> stassen@alc.com (Chris Stassen) writes:
>elsonliu@leland.Stanford.EDU (Liu) writes:
>> With USC's lost to Stanford, and Arizona's win over
>> Washington, I doubt Arizona will be the underdog.
>
>According to the paper here, they are.  The line is reported as
>Southern Cal by 2.5 over Arizona.
>

Once again, we present r.s.f.c's guide to:

The Difference Between the Vegas Line and What People Expect Will Happen.
				(tm)

What People Expect Will Happen:
  (Notice I said "people", not "bettors")
  Otherwise known as Conventional Wisdom.  Usually exactly what Lee
  Corso says cannot possibly happen.  This says that Arizona will
  pound the living squat out of SC.  Even SC people who have posted so
  far think that is what will happen.  Anit-woofing aside, this is
  highly unusual for SC fans.  Anit-woofs are kind of like the Dark
  Side of the Force for SC fans.

The Vegas Line:
  This is set by bookmakers.  Bookmakers are not, contrary to popular 
  belief, fans.  And, if they are any good at making book, they don't 
  care who wins or loses.  This is due to something that is called
  "vigorish" or "juice".  When a bookmaker takes your bet for $1 on a
  game, he agrees to pay you $1.9 if you win, and agrees to keep your
  $1 if you lose.  (Other bookmakers, generally the illegal ones, give
  you sligtly better 11:10 odds than the official (if I remember 
  correctly, I don't get to Vegas that much) 10:9)  If you neither win
  nor lose, the bookmaker cheerily refunds your $1.  So, bookmakers
  are only concerned with ties.  They *hate* ties.  Good bookmakers,
  ones who ensure that a roughly equal amount of money is bet on both
  sides of an outcome, know that they are going to make some dough.

  The reason the bookmakers are able to ensure that there is roughly the
  same amount of money bet on both sides of the game is due to a nifty
  invention known as the "point spread".  This invention can make even
  the most lopsided game terribly exciting to a bettor.  Especially a
  bettor with a serious chunk of change riding on the game, and two
  swarthy guys with previously broken noses suddenly *very* interested
  in said bettor's contribution to the national personal debt.

  No bettor in his right mind would actually place a bet that, say,
  Boston College would beat Miami.  Especially after BC's performance
  against the University of God.  But, if you were to say to the
  bettor, "Hey, if you were to bet on BC to come within 7 1/2 points
  of Miami, and they did, I'd pay you!"  Needless to say, if the
  Little Sisters of the Blind Poor were to play the Miami Dolphins,
  and were given 106 points in the bargain, some bettors would be hard
  pressed not to place a bet on the good Sisters.  Bookmakers try to
  set a point spread that will entice the betting public to bet as
  equal an amount of money as possible on each team.

  How, you may ask, do these wily bookmakers set such a point spread?
  Many people think that they sit around in a big group, like the
  guys from Chicago on "Superfans", and hash out what they think the
  final score will be, and set the point spread to that number.  Many
  people even believe that the bookies have a secret "system", and if
  only they, the small-time bettor, could learn this "system" they
  could become rich casino owners overnight.  Not so.

  Bookies do have a complicated system.  It's a combination of strange
  things like "mathematics", "statistics", "psychology", and other
  weird things.  They use past betting trends, and their rather
  extensive knowledge of the betting public, along with big spreadsheets,
  to come up with a point spread that will attract as close to even
  stakes as possible.  This point spread usually makes some sense to
  most people, because the betting public, by and large, knows about
  what the average fan knows about the outcomes of football games
  before they actually happen.  This is not to say that they know more
  than random chance would give them, but that the levels of knowledge
  within the two groups is similar.

  But, the betting public is not structured as "one man, one vote", it
  is "one dollar wagered, one vote".  So, in cases like this one,
  where there are several tens of thousands of disgustingly rich
  USC alumni who go to Vegas every weekend to place a bet on the
  good ole Crimson and Gold, as opposed to the little old grandmothers
  in Tucson who haven't been to Vegas since the bunions started acting
  up, the line is influenced by money likely to be wagered.  While
  the grandmother/tycoon theory may not adequately explain this week's
  Arizona-Southern Cal spread, there is undoubtedly some simliar
  explanation, like SC bets are always high on weeks with New Moons,
  or something scientific.  So, knock off all this "I can't believe
  that SC is the favorite this week, what a bunch of morons!"

  Unless, of course, you say this as a prelude to calling up your 
  bookie.

Brian
  - Vice President (Unemployed)
  - Cal Woofer Patrol
  - "It's tough patrolling for woofers when nobody can woof."
 
  
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college