From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Sheffield is NL MVP
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 22:29:22 GMT

In <1992Sep30.144756.1661@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>In article <1992Sep27.171110.20018@panix.com> spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira) writes:
>>In <17596@ucdavis.ucdavis.edu> fzchen@othello.ucdavis.edu writes:
>>>In article <1992Sep25.021254.29808@leland.Stanford.EDU> claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>>>>In <1992Sep24.185443.6675@island.COM> (Mike Fester) writes:

>>>>And, since OBP is more valuable than SLG, Caminiti's higher OBP wins out.

>>>This is why I quit sabremetrics.

>>You quit sabermetrics?  I don't think you can do that.  My guess is that
>>you were fired, and you just don't want to admit it.  

>You might want to take a look at this year's AL, before you flame this guy.

>>  Who says OBP is more important than SLG???!!!

>>Oh, about 100 years of baseball teams who increase their run production
>>more by gaining 5 points of OBP than by gaining 5 points of SLG.  

>For confirmation, see this year's Detroit and Baltimore teams.

>>But I guess 100 years of baseball isn't more important than your
>>preconceived ideas.

>(through Sept 21)
>Baltimore .342 OBP, .402 SLG, 651 runs
>Detroit   .336 OBP, .407 SLG, 724 runs

>Who exactly has "preconceived" ideas here? (though I will admit, technically
>you are correct; it wasn't 5 points of OBP, it was 6)

Well, I can think of two explanations.  Three, actually.
1) Baltimore has absolutely the WORST lineup construction in history.  Their
3-4-5 hitters are worse than their 1-2,6-7-8 hitters.  Johnny Oates has 
this preconceived idea that 1b/dh must bat 4/5, while speedy outfielders 
must bat #2, and catchers must bat 8th.

2) These are only averages, you know.  RC just approximates how many
runs a team with these numbers should score.  It doesn't calculate it
exactly.  It is possible for a team to have a .000 OBP and a .000 SLG and 
score a run (Reach on error, steal second and third, score on sac fly.)  
Admittedly this specific scenario doesn't happen often, but random
chance like this can screw up the numbers.  The fact that the RC method isn't 
perfect doesn't invalidate the fact that in general it is very accurate.

3) Someone on the net (Harold, Dave, Dave, ?) has a theory that an
offense based heavily on HRs and BBs like Detroit, or a team that hits
very few HRs, like Milwaukee, doesn't fit the RC model perfectly.

4) BTW, Detroit's played 2 more games.

>>  I think Caminiti vs. Pendleton is simple.  Poll the GM's and
>>>managers of both leagues and ask who they would want on their team if
>>>either could be had at the same salary...Caminiti.  Not!

>>That's good.  If the GMs actually picked Caminiti, I might want Pendleton.
>>But seeing that these are the same group of GMs that pursued Storm Davis
>>because of his W-L record and include at least one GM that traded Ken Hill
>>for Andres Galaragga, it assures me that my pick of Caminiti (for 1992) 
>>would be right.

>Not to mention that at least one GM awarded a mutli-year, multi-million $$
>contract to a 28 year-old, injury-prone catcher with a career OPS of ~.670
>(Daulton). Or picked up a 29 year-old journeyman pitcher and decided to hand 
>him the ball every 4th or 5th game (Stewart). Yep, really stupid, those GMs.

What's your point?  If you throw a pile of 100 rocks at a window, one of 
them is bound to hit it.  That doesn't mean you have good aim.

Daulton was a gamble.  He had always had a good secondary average, but
had just never been able to stay healthy long enough to put a decent
season together.  He managed to this year, and had a good year.  (BTW,
it was actually closer to 690 than 670.)  If you buy a lottery ticket
and win a million dollars, that doesn't mean it was a good idea, just
that you got lucky.

(On the other hand, LAST year Daulton posted 196/297/365.  *You* make the 
call whether the Phillies got their money's worth.)

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1993 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Roland Hemond: SIGN BARRY BONDS!!!!!!!!
Vote Clinton/Gore '92.   Four more months!	  
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball