From: mark.savey@cccbbs.UUCP (Mark Savey)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: RE: SPORTS BETTING
Date: 8 Apr 92 22:57:00 GMT
Article-I.D.: cccbbs.909.120.uupcb
Reply-To: mark.savey@cccbbs.UUCP (Mark Savey)
Organization: Cincinnati Computer Connection BBS - Cincinnati, OH - 513-752-8248

MW>From: wilding@cs.utexas.edu (Matthew Wilding)
MW>Newsgroups: rec.gambling
MW>Subject: Re: SPORTS BETTING
MW>Date: 5 Apr 1992 17:28:39 -0500
MW>Message-ID: <rnuunINNd6m@cs.utexas.edu>

MW>Mark Savey:
>I have a football edition that is coming off of it's best
>season ever (since 1989).  My program has three separate programs in
>one.  System 1 is a trends program, where 45 trends can appear in a
>week.  Systems 2 and 3 use different algorithms and produce poinspreads.
>  Documented records (On CompuServe and major BBSs) versus the spread:
>  System 2 record was 59-42-3  58.4%  BEST BETS 34-18-1  65.4%  up 12.8u
>  System 3 record was 27-09-2  75.0%  BEST BETS 21-09-2  70.0%  up 17.1u
>  By playing all picks, you'd be up +29.9 units...if playing $100/game,
>that would be $2,990 profit!  Since 1989, the winning percentage is just
>under 60%.
MW>If you ran an experiment over 100 games and picked 58% of 100 games.
MW>(Is that "just under 60%"?) a completely random system would succeed 1
MW>time in 15.  I suspect, however, that you played fast and loose with
MW>this procedure - not maliciously, but after all you're trying to make
MW>bets, not publish a scientific article.  Tell me this if possible:
MW>precisely how many picks did you post on any BBS or Compuserve from
MW>any of your systems, when and where did you posts these picks, and
MW>what is your winning percentage against the spread?
   Since I depend on the shareware concept, I do not post the weekly 
   picks for the user.  I want the user to run my software.  The picks 
   are based on the calculated difference between the pointspread and 
   the computer line.  The computer line is the SAME for ALL USERS and
   the Vegas line is the only variable.  I posted the results with the 
   Vegas line that was used (usually Feist or Stardust, whichever I had
   access to first).  I have posted the results on CompuServe, Exec-PC 
   (Bob Mahoney's), Rusty 'N Edies BBS, Channel One, WPGS, Sound Advice,
   and MANY BBS across the country.  I have posted all results in good
   faith, but there are always doubters...AND I obviously cannot 
   guarantee its success!

MW>Mark Savey (in reaction to me, I think):
>Sounds to me like you belive in statistics, but not in programs that
>can use soundly use them.  You are not the only one to use them!  ...
MW>I don't understand what you're getting at here.  Are you arguing with
MW>something I said?  Does anyone not believe in mathemematics?

   Sorry Matthew, I missed one of your posts...I was really getting
   aggrevated that no one was offering any HELP to David Boll.  
   Producing ANY KIND of sports handicapping shareware software will
   always bring out the doubters (flame-time!), instead of trying the
   software and making constructive feedback (too much effort), they 
   flame the author...it's a tough town! <g>
 
o On another note, I am attempting to use "AI" on the 1992 edition.  Do
  you think that isolating the 4 year record of System 2 & System 3:
  Home Dogs, Home Fav, Road dogs, and Road favs as a yardstick for AI?
  For example, if my systems Home Dogs PLAYS are 80% correct, then 
  whatever criteria that has gotten the 80% can be considered "worth the
  PLAY", versus a 20% on Home Favs (example) and that a Home Fav could 
  be marked on the system output as not a favorable play...I am 
  obviously not a statistician <g>...any suggestions?
  
Thanks

Mark E. Savey
GAMBLER'S MATE software - "Only systems that win!!"                    .
Endorsed by Mike Caro, the "Mad Genius" of Gambling!                   .
Winning for THIRD straight year!                                       .
@ INTERNET: cccbbs!mark.savey@uceng.uc.edu or 74716.1720@CompuServe.com
                             ^-------|------------------^              .
                                   should be the "at" sign (shift-2)   .
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 . DeLuxe. 1.21 #8865 . GAMBLER'S MATE: Football Edition 1992 ask for it!
                         
Newsgroups: rec.gambling