From: greg@gregm.NoSubdomain.NoDomain (Greg Moritz)
Subject: Re: Elves  (was Re: Zweig's Super Model)
Reply-To: greg@gregm.b23b.ingr.com (Greg Moritz)
Organization: Dazix, An Intergraph Company
Date: Fri, 7 Aug 1992 12:39:40 GMT

suhre@meltami.dsd.trw.com (Maurice E. Suhre) writes:
> Lou announced a disclaimer of sorts that the program was for "long term"
> investing and price fluctuation of a week or two weren't what they were
> concerned with.  There was also talk of keeping the schedule of guests
> secret.  There was also a rumor that some of the guests were giving out
> their best stock picks since they didn't want them bid up (don't ask me
> to explain).

> I'll admit that I still don't understand how the above story has
> anything to do with the phrase "underperformed the market consistently
> over its entire run".

The reason you don't understand how the above story has anything to do 
with the phrase "underperformed ...." is that you are referring to two
different things here.

First, the Elves index is simply an indicator based on the opinions of
twelve regular panelists who are market technicians.  Marty Zweig, Gail
Dudak, and others submit their opinions as to whether the market is 
likely to rise, fall, or stay flat over the next six months.  Depending
on how they vote, the Elves index will either give a buy, sell, or hold
for the market.  Currently, the voting was 4-bullish, 4-neutral, and 
4-bearish (I believe that was how it was last Friday).  When the average
of the index is plus three or more, the index is giving a buy signal. 
ie. an example of such a condition would be when there are six bulls,
and three each of neutrals and bears.

I don't recall reading anything about the elves index seriously under-
performing the market.  However, WSW recently re-vamped their index 
after the Elves missed the crash of '87 and the bull market following
that.

The other phenomenon referred to is when a guest on the show or a 
panelist recommends a stock, enough people watching the show looking 
for investment advice, will go out into the market on the following 
Monday and buy enough stock to influence the market to some extent.

For those who haven't watched WSW before, the program is 30 minutes long:

    There is a 5-7 minute monologue by Louis Rukheiser summing up the
    week just passed.  This politically biting (to all parties) is worth
    the price of a PBS membership alone.

    Following that, three panelists answer first one question regarding
    the general market then one question from a viewer's letter.  This
    part takes up about 15 minutes.

    The final part of the show is an interview with a market expert or
    some kind of 'Heavy Hitter.'  Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan funds
    used to be a regular there.  Usually, the panelist is either a fund
    manager or an analyst for a brokerage house.

    Occasionally, the show deviates from the regular format 3-4 times per
    year to have some sort of special where they might analyze 3-4 
    different industries.  The last one they had analyzed the effects that
    Clinton would have on the economy vis-a-vis Bush if elected.

    The show is on in most areas at 8:30 pm every Friday.  Some PBS 
    stations (if they are worth a damn) repeat the show on Sundays.
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