From: roger@crux.Princeton.EDU (Roger Lustig)
Subject: Re: NLCS Game #5 at 9:41
Originator: news@nimaster
Reply-To: roger@astro.princeton.edu (Roger Lustig)
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1992 19:50:37 GMT

In article <7637@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> psg+@pitt.edu (Paul S Galvanek) writes:
>In article <1992Oct13.153336.20166@access.usask.ca> (Gerry Gryschuk) writes:

>>Oh I see so Bonds can hit anything is that what your saying? Are you
>>seriously trying to make the case that Bonds should swing at pitchers
>>that are clearly unhittable? Besides a batters job is to not make an
>>out period! Now some nonouts are better than others but all nonouts are
>>better than outs.

>No I'm not saying he should swing at everything.  I'm saying that several
>times this series there have been situations that prove to me that statistical
>analysis, while being useful for some things, is inadequate as an explination
>of everything that goes on in the game.  I fully expect that I'll now hear that
>no one here has ever made that arguement, but I know I have.  

Get your hearing checked, then.  What apreposterous thing to say!

>This particular situation, Bonds taking the walk with 2 outs and a runner on 
>third, clearly demonstrates to me that despite statistical evidence there is 
>a such thing as "protection in a batting order".  

Well?  Could the walk not have happened with Bonilla behind him?

(Oh, and how come he hit so well, and so devastatingly, during the long
time he batted 5th?)

>As many of you have clearly
>pointed out Bonds is NOT getting the hit because he's NOT getting pitches that
>can be hit, WHY?  Because rightly or wrongly the pitcher believes there is a
>less effective hitter behind and pitches accordingly - throwing pitches that 
>skilled hitters like Bonds usually won't touch (thus drawing many walks) or
>less skilled hitters will attempt to hit and more often than not make outs.

Well, then, why didn't this work with Mantle and Maris?  Murphy and Horner? 
Can you show me an example of a guy whose walk totals went up suddenly with
the slugger behind him gone?  One at-bat ain't enough to explain this,
since walks *do* happen in all slots of the batting order.

>In this situation  drawing the walk certianly increases a number like OBP
>but that is not always a good thing.  You would easily be able to argue that
>Bonds' high OPB is clear evidence that he's a superior hitter - and you'd get
>no arguement from me.  But I believe it is an equally plausible arguement that
>a high OPB demonstrates a lack of "protection".  

Let's see: top OBP's are: Williams, Ruth, Hornsby, etc.  Recently: Mantle,
Morgan, Boggs, etc.  I think those guys had *some* protection.  (Imagine
walking Morgan to get to--Bench?)

>Whether statistically demonstrated or not, 

How about refuted?  Don't even need any stats; just look at all the 
cases where the presumed "protection" argument doesn't work.

>this stituation in game 4 (?) which is in no way a unique
>occurance at least hints that "protection" does exist.

So how come we can't find any?

>To the other matter, as to whether my assertion that someone claimed a hit and
>walk are the same (or some variation on that theme), sorry but some of you may
>choose at this time to deny making that arguement but I know that's not the case
>Repeatedly through out the season(s) when a r.s.b regular sees his/her favorite 
>player attacked for having a low BA, the first thing they point to is their
>OBP and follow up with "see he walked x number of times and that's just as 
>good as a hit." 

Post one of those cases or shut up, OK?  Nobody's ever said that, period.
Only for leadoff hitters is it true; for leadoff hitters one might make
such an argument without being far out of line.

>In fact my first assaults on Bobby Bonilla's inconsistant BA (over his
>career) were responded to with that very arguement.

Wrong.  They were generally responded to with the fact that BA *does*
tend to fluctuate more than OBA.

Again, if you wish to accuse people of things, just save a few postings.
Some of us do that, and occasionally it comes in handy, such as when 
someone tries to weasel out of a bet.

Roger