From: v073pzuy@ubvmsb.cc.buffalo.edu (BILLS 34 Niners 31)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro
Subject: Re: Who has got the toughest schedule - a repost.
Date: 14 Sep 92 18:00:00 GMT
Organization: University at Buffalo
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

In article <ygnefxr@Unify.Com>, tsv@dbrus.Unify.Com (Tim Vannaman) writes...
>In article <00960680.781019A0@vms.csd.mu.edu> 5912ramasubr@vms.csd.mu.edu 
	writes:
>>
>>Here is a statistical help at figuring out which team has
>>'suffered' the most from the draw.
>>
>>Based on the 1991 results of NON DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS
>>-----------------------------------------------------
>>
>>Team		in '91		Opp.rec		%
>>
>>1.Denver	12-4		81-47		0.633
>>2.Washington	14-2		79-49		0.617
>>3.Kansas city	10-6		75-53		0.586
>>4.Dallas	10-6		74-54		0.578
>>5.Buffalo	13-3		73-55		0.570
>>  Detroit	11-5		73-55		0.570
>>  Raiders	9-7		73-55		0.570
>>8.New Orleans	10-6		89-71		0.556
>>9.Philadelphia	10-6		71-57		0.555
>>10.Chicago	11-5		67-61		0.523
>>   Miami	8-8		67-61		0.523
>>   Seattle	7-9		67-61		0.523
>>13.Houston	11-5		83-77		0.519
>>14.Giants	8-8		66-62		0.516
>>   Jets		8-8		66-62		0.516   !!!
>>16.Atlanta	10-6		82-78		0.513
>>17.San Fran'co	10-6		80-80		0.500
>>   Minnesota    8-8		64-64		0.500
>>19.Pittsburgh	7-9		78-82		0.488
>>20.Cleveland	6-10		75-85		0.469
>>   New England	6-10		60-68		0.469
>>22.Rams		3-13		73-87		0.456
>>23.Green Bay	4-12		58-70		0.453
>>24.Cincinnati	3-13		70-90		0.438
>>25.Tampa Bay	3-13		47-81		0.367
>>26.Phoneix	4-12		45-83		0.352
>>27.Indianapolis 1-15		42-86		0.328
>>28.San Diego	4-12		36-92		0.281
>>
>>

>How does your list look w/ the divisional schedules included?  You can't base
>a schedule strength on outer-divisional games only.

There is only one problem with your logic--the NFL's version of "weighting the
schedule" is done only based on intradivisional games.  Thus, the 1st place
teams in the conference duke it out, and play one third place team and one 
second place team, and play one division from the other conference.

How your division shapes up has nothing at all with who you will play outside
of the division, so the NFL's formula has to be graded on that merit alone.

Based on the above chart, I would say they did a pretty good job of it.  The top
8 teams on the chart all made the playoffs the year before, and all playoff 
teams were within the top 16.  The last 12 are fine, obviously.

>ex.  Suppose the Cards draw a schedule that is ranked 26th, but because they
>have 8 games w/ Dal,Was,Phi & NY, that may leapfrog them to 10th.

The NFC East is overrated as the "toughest division in football."  The Cardinals
are a joke, and the Giants-Cowboys game proved that the Giants are hideous and
that the Cowboys still have a way to go before they are a *truly* elite team.
The point is, each division has its bum teams, and maybe it has a powerhouse,
and the rest are so-so.  For my money, the NFC West might rate higher, but 
again, I wouldn't put one division above another, necessarily.

Remember, two years ago the Bills beat the Eagles, Cardinals, and Giants in the
regular season, losing a meaningless game to the Redskins.  Still, the NFC
representative was touted as some divine avatar of God in the Super Bowl.  Last
year, the Bills beat the Bears, Packers, and Buccaneers, losing a meaningless
game to the Lions.  This year, they have already beat the Rams and the Niners.

I don't mean to use the Bills personally, but it is done to illustrate the twin
points that no division reigns supreme, and that "NFC superiority" is a myth.

>Tim.

Chet.