From: "wayne mcguire" <wayne.mcguire@channel1.com>
Newsgroups: talk.politics.mideast
Subject: american opinion
Date: 30 Dec 92 15:14:44 EST
Reply-To: "wayne mcguire" <wayne.mcguire@channel1.com>
Distribution: talk
Organization: Channel 1 Communications

To: Harry Mamaysky

Harry,

That was a fine piece of analysis and writing you just posted on
the background of U.S.-Israeli relations, and on Israel's role as
a strategic American strategic asset in the Cold War.

I don't strongly disagree with any of your points; on the
contrary, they all make sense. But I would put a slightly
different spin on some of them.

There has always been vigorous debate in the American national
security community about whether Israel was more a help or a
hindrance in countering Soviet influence in the Middle East. A
strong case can be made that our siding with Israel helped push
strategically important Arab countries into the arms of the
Soviets. And never have the State and Defense Departments lost
sight of the reality that the real strategic prize in the Middle
East is oil and access to oil, plain and simple. Take away the
petroleum reserves, and the region shrinks in strategic
significance.

I think the Israeli lobby has played a more significant role than
you give it credit for in boosting the level of American aid to
Israel to astonishing levels (both relatively and absolutely).
The Congress, which is heavily influenced by AIPAC, has regularly
voted to increase the level of aid that was specified by the
White House. There are three well-documented and persuasive books
on this subject--by Paul Findley, Edward Tivnan, and George and
Douglas Ball--which go into all the details.

Overall the Gulf War was quite damaging to the myth that Israel
is America's most important strategic asset in the Middle East.
During the course of the war it became evident that Saudi Arabia,
and not Israel, was America's aircraft carrier in the Middle
East. Israel was viewed by the U.S. as a nuisance that had to be
kept out of the way of the action.

Although you are right that the end of the Cold War was a major
factor in the recent chilling of U.S.-Israeli relations, I think
you are underestimating the role of the growth of messianic
Jewish extremism, particularly among the settlement movement, in
alienating American and Western democratic opinion. Increasingly
the picture that has come across on the tube is of fanatical
Israeli settlers driving innocent Palestinians from their
rightful land. I understand that the situation is a good deal
more complicated than this, but that is the image that is coming
across to the world, and it is a direct result of policies that
were initiated by Menachem Begin since Likud first came to power.

Every time an Israeli or Israeli supporter presents ideological
and messianic rather than pragmatic arguments for Israeli
policies, you can see the light of world support for Israel grow
dimmer. With the exception of Christian fundamentalists, most
Americans are not interested in getting sucked into a Mideast
holy war on the basis of any side's messianic fantasies.

Whether Israel can adjust to the new realities remains to be
seen. All its promises to revamp its moribund socialist economy
have proven to be empty. Extremism continues to grow in Israeli
society. I can picture a situation in which Israel manages to
polarize the entire world against itself and the Zionist
experiment collapses out of sheer inability to deal with reality.
Before you scoff at this possibility, take a look at other failed
messianic movements in Jewish history. More and more Zionism is
taking on the look and feel of a false messianic movement, in
which the rhetoric grows ever more shrill as the ability to
control material events grows more feeble.

I want Zionism to succeed in the way its most enlightened
founders imagined it. I want Israel to be a normal and prosperous
state, living at peace with its neighbors, and serving as a kind
of world center of Jewish genius and culture. But my skepticism grows
day by day that this dream is going to be realized.
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