From: spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: DUMB inexcusable play
Date: 11 Apr 92 00:56:50 GMT
Organization: Need New One - Now!

In <19920410113206SASCHO@mvs.sas.com> SASCHO <SASCHO@mvs.sas.com> writes:

>>Actually, we can compute just how dumb this was, to some extent.
>>
>>On average, a team with a man on second and two out can expect to score
>>about .35 more runs in the inning.  A team with a man on third and two
>>out can expect to score about .38 or .39 more runs.  So, the marginal value
>>of the stolen base is about .03 or .04 expected runs.  If we let 'p' denote
>>the probability of successfully stealing the base, then the expected value
>>of the attempt is given by
>>
>>        p * .04 + (1-p) * (-.35) =  .39 p - .35
>>
>>implying that this is only a winning bet if p > 35/39, which is between 89%
>>and 90% success.
>>
>>Now, Coleman's career success rate for stealing 3rd is probably right around
>>90%.  What this means is that, in the long run, he's probably not costing the
>>team any runs by doing that.  If it's important to his intimidation of the
>>opposing pitchers to *always* be a threat, then it might actually be a boost
>>for the team overall, as long as he doesn't do it in situations where the
>>club needs one run immediately (like the 9th inning of a tie game).  It's a
>>strategy that makes the risk-averse duck and cover, but it's not really good
>>or bad for the team in the end.
>>
>>On the whole, I'd say that it was not a wise decision, but was probably less
>>stupid than a sacrifice bunt in the fourth inning...
> 
>OK, I knew this day would come. Stats prove a lot, and are valuable.
>However, they don't (can't) show emotion and attitude. The general rules
>(unwritten, of course) of baserunning are: never make the first out at
>third, never make the third out at third, make the defense make the
>third out at home. i.e., sending a runner on a base hit w/ 2 outs and
>a runner on second. Put pressure on the defense.
> 
>As a player for several years, at a fairly high level, I can tell
>you that these rules make sense. They work most of the time, and
>guys generally believe them. The psychological impact of a guy
>getting thrown at at third w/ 2 outs puts stress on the team.
>If he steals and makes it, guys generally aren't elated. They are
>relieved that they dodged a bullet. I don't think it is wise.           lf
>                                                                        
Well, I'm not going to argue the psychological effect with you, because
I'm quite sure such a play might deject and put stress on a team.  However,
I don't really believe that a happy, unstressed team is necessarily going
to play better than a depressed, stressed team.

Why don't I believe this?  Well, mostly because I think that if these factors 
played a significant role we would find that a team on a high would be more
likely to win than the same team on a low.  But if you take a look at streaks,
you'll find that this is not the case.  Team A doesn't have any better a chance
of winning a game after 5 straight wins than after 5 straight losses.  Player
A doesn't have any better chance of getting a hit after 5 straight hits than
after 5 straight strikeouts.  Certainly, I think, Team A would be under a lot
more stress after 5 losses.  But it doesn't seem to have any effect on whether 
Team A wins.  For that reason, I'm rather skeptical that the performance of
major league teams (and note my use of the phrase major league - I offer no
opinion on anything else) is significantly affected by short term highs and
lows.

Greg  
-- 
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