From: mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers)
Subject: How to assess a QB (Was: Re: It wasn't Pretty)
Organization: Netcom Online Communications Services (408-241-9760 login: guest)
Distribution: usa
Date: Mon, 28 Dec 1992 23:04:46 GMT

In article <1992Dec28.221609.2475@netcom.com> gordons@netcom.com (Gordon Storga) writes:

><1992Dec24.232715.18785@netcom.com> mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers) :

>>Which is a larger statement on the veracity of the passing stat than it
>>is on Danny White.  And before you get off a rim shot, bear in mind that
>>I've never pointed to passing stats as the sole, or even the primary, 
>>method of assessing QB talent.

>Me neither.  But then, what do *you* use to assess a QB if not stats?

First, some stats are probably better than others.  My own opinion of the
passing rating is that it's good but not great.  I'd be more inclined to
look at *median* yards per pass, and per completion; TD and INT %age, and
conversion efficiency for 3rd and five or more.

Second, there are a host of non-statistical mechanisms available.  You
can poll the players and coaches.  You can use your own eyes.  You can
even use wins, though this is still statistical in nature (just very
primitive).

>Yup, and TO THIS POINT their careers have some similarity.

But, for most intents and purposes, Young's career is very, well, young.

>>>Although he missed 6 games last year (his first year starting)
>>>they had a better win/loss percentage with Bono.  

>>Too small a sample space, and too many mitigating circumstances, to be 
>>meaningful.

>Maybe, maybe not.

Baloney.  Bono was 5-0 (or 5-1, depending on how you measure) last year.
Impressive as it is, it's insufficient for drawing comparisons.

>What were the conditions for Jeff Hostetler when he took over for Simms
>and won the SB?  I just want to point out that there have been QB's who've
>taken over for a starter without much preparation and won the SB or had
>good seasons.  

And Hostetler's tremendous success since that SB reinforces my point:  a
portion of a season, no matter how good or bad, is *not* enough of a 
sample space upon which to draw conclusions.  Would *you*, Gordon, want
to choose Hos over Young on the basis of their respective first semi-seasons?

Oops, I forgot;  you probably would.

>BTW, I hope you aren't saying that Young wasn't *prepared*
>to start in '91.  How can a QB as "talented" as Young and as "deserving"
>of a starting role  NOT be prepared to start.

I don't think I've used the term "deserving"; in any event, it's not
particularly applicable to this subject.

In any event, it's quite simple:  due to the nature and the timing of Joe's
initial elbow injury, it wasn't known that he had a problem until about
a month before the season started.  It wasn't known that he wouldn't
play for much longer than that.  Compounding this was the fact that the
Niners generally take a few regular-season games to get the kinks out of
their sophisticated offensive scheme *even with all the starters,* and 
adding a new QB just made it worse.  And compounding all of this was that
the team had some lousy luck the first part of '91.  (Anyone who wants
to construe this as whining is cordially invited to shove a Niners helmet
up their bottom.)

Circumstance, my boy.  That's why you need some sense of perspective in
order to separate the pretenders (eg the Broncos) and the statistical
blips (the '85 Bears) from the Real Thing.
-- 
Michael Zimmers                                    |  Home:  408 996 1984
SoftHelp                                           |  Work:  408 996 1965
Software Solutions for Open Systems                |  Data:  408 996 1974
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