From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: rec.radio.info
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 January
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1993 14:02:46 -0700
Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                22 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 022, 01/22/93
10.7 FLUX=104.2  90-AVG=140        SSN=049      BKI=0211 1222  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=1.2E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=0211 1223  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=004,012,008,006,006,011,015,016   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.5   @ 2040UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 1910UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2210UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0110UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +1.7DB @ 0015UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0840UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 1558UT   BOUTF-MIN=55390NT @ 1932UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1952UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 1003UT  G7-AVG=+081,+028,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1919UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 1920UT  G6-AVG=+098,-000,+037
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,110;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,015/007,010,015
    KFCST=1112 3111 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=002,003   27DAY-KP=0011 1210 0012 1210
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. All
       regions on the disk are quiet, simple and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally quiet for the next 24 hours, and quiet
       to unsettled on day two. Conditions are expected to be mostly
       unsettled with some brief active periods on day three due to
       possible coronal hole effects at that time.

            Event probabilities 23 jan-25 jan

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 jan-25 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Good propagation is expected to persist for the next 48 hours.
       High and polar latitude paths may begin to experience minor
       signal degradation on 25 January due to anticipated
       enhancements in geomagnetic and auroral activity.  This may
       mildly affect the upper middle latitude paths during the night
       sectors.  Otherwise, normal propagation should continue.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7401  S11W47  022  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7403  N15W25  360  0150 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7406  S12E24  311  0070 CSO  05  004 BETA
7407  S06E59  276  0060 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7402  S25W49  024                    PLAGE
7405  S12W51  026                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 JANUARY TO 25 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7397 N10   235


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
82   S32E15 S32E03 S04W06 S02W03  342  ISO   POS   013 10830A
83   N25E38 N00E22 N17E02 N33E20  323  ISO   POS   018 10830A
84   S24E78 S38E82 S28E42 S21E57  282  ISO   NEG   018 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **