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Date:         Thu, 31 Dec 1992 22:23:21 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Once More, On Possible War in the Balkans, (#801)

Once More, Possible War in the Balkans

As the year wanes to its last day, the talk of war is mixed with much
confusion and pleading about what to do about Bosnia, and the looming
spectre of Serbia/"rump" Yugoslavia just barely behind the scenes.

Boutros-Ghali went to Sarajevo, and was booed by the doughty
defenders of that city, where it is said that despair is deep and
resolve deeper, and that though water, heat, and electricity is
either extant erratically or not at all, the resolve to fight on
remains steadfast. THe defenders of the city and allies have mustered
10,000 men for a breakout counter-offensive, which the Serbs state is
a provocatory act that might well bring a strengthened assault by
"federal" troops at Bosnia.

Motion comes in other places too, though not at all clearly. The
Federal President and the army commander in chief of "Yugoslavia"
warn that the West would be engaged in "genocode" if it intervenes
in Bosnia with military force, and that "Yugoslavia" will resist if
such a Western military action occurs. Lord Owen went to Belgrade to
speak with Milosevic, Cyrus Vance went with Boutros-Gahli to
Sarajevo. Izetbegovic was in Mostar trying to "shore up the
Muslim-Croatian alliance," according to NPR this afternoon.

Boutros-Gahli begged for more time to let peace talks have "one more
chance," though many people on POLITICS and Mideur-L seem to feel war
is definitely on the horizon for all of Europe. I recall speculating
in my last post on the 23rd that I thought it possible, and named the same
players everyone else has - Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo, Greece,
Serbia-Montenegro, Turkey, Bosnia, Croatia, and maybe, only maybe,
the CIS states and/or Russia COULD get pulled into this based on past
history if war were to break out.

I think some kind of war is more likely than not. George Bush appears
determined to go out with a bang (and leave Clinton with a full and
convoluted plate, a convenient target for future GOP sniping if
things initiated now go awry) - Somalia and "Operation Restored
Hope," renewed tangling with Saddam Hussein and Iraq, and strong
warnings to Belgrade about probable US intervention if the violence
is escalated and/or the UN no-fly zone is further breached by Serbia
or "Yugoslavia." The Security Council of the UN, for reasons unclear,
appears unwilling to take a specific tack as to what to do.

Russia appears to favor Serbia, indeed one of the lists (Russia or
TPS-L) suggests that companies of Russian volunteers are being
recruited to fight on behalf of their Slavic brethern and long-time
allies, the Serbs. Turkey favors Muslim Bosnia, and defense of Turks
and/or Muslims in Macedonia and Kosovo (mostly Muslims in the latter
place). Greece appears to favor Macedonia's non-existence, and
appears to be willing to let Serbia have its way unless Turkey got
involved. Albania has nationals in Macedonia, and a sizable 90% of
the roughly 2 million living in Kosovo, but I think Kosovo would be
the trigger that launched Albania into the struggle. The day that
occurred, if it does, will be what *I* would call the beginning of
the Third Balkan War (or IF any other power besides the separated
states of "old" Yugoslavia got involved in the brawl).

The planned "breakout" in Sarajevo, which most of the world knows
will occur, may be enough to see the "Yugoslav" air force launched at
Bosnia, despite the "military and political talks" scheduled to begin
in Geneva 2 January. That in turn could see the US call for an
enforcement measure to come out of the UN Security Council with
teeth in it, despite Boutros-Gahli's calls for restraint. It might
not fly, but the US' pressure could turn the vote to affirmative,
though Russia or China might veto such an idea.

But, Serbia skirts closer to war, I believe. Karadzic, the Bosnian
Serb leader, Schessle (?), the Serbian Nationalist leader, and
Serbian President Milosevic appear quite bellicose at this point in
warning the Western powers to stay out of their dismembering of
Bosnia, and perhaps in Macedonia and Kosovo too (though that is less
clear as to any timetable).

The Muslims are desperate, and the Croats have more to fear than
might be realized in their alleged willingness to split Bosnia with
Serbia if Bosnia is to be partitioned. The West won't allow the arms
embargo to break, and the Muslims/sometimes Croats are heavily
out-gunned (though that did not preclude an artillery duel while
Boutros-Gahli was in Sarajevo). Food is low in the city, the city is
battered and damaged from all the shelling, yet its defenders hang on
while the world watches, morbidly fascinated by what the Serbs
threaten would be "the Vietnam of the Nineties" if the West engages
in military action against them.

The Russian/US signing of START II pales (epecially with the
intransigence of Ukraine and Belarus to ratify START I, and/or
implement the cuts called for in that treaty, which makes START II a
piece of paper without possible life until such occurs) against the
possibility of a European war, however limited or expanded it became.
I want peace to happen, but no side, despite the upcoming talks,
appears very willing to yield much. Bosnia wants the land seized by
the Serbs back, while Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia, plus Schessle and
Milosevic, want a "Greater Serbia." President Tudjman of Croatia and
President Izetbeggovic's relations are deteriorating, according to a 30
December RFE/RL report, and the Albanian "minority" (from power) in
Kosovo is very, very restive, feeling strongly the possibility of
Serbian aggression turning in their direction too soon.

I notice British Foreign Secretary Hurd and President Bush have both
made noise that the stakes would be greater, and the risk of widened
war greater if the Serbs go on the offensive anywhere. Then, it would
appear to just be the waiting for a trigger to be pulled to see that
war spring up.

Alas, while I do not believe "greater war" is an immediate
possibility, I concede anew that the possibility is greater than a
month ago, and that this well could be Bill Clinton's first serious
foreign policy test, as well as for a new Congress with a lot of new
members. Russia being in serious economic shape, in its 6th default
of payments on US grain credits and in hock now for a total of $127
million, and getting sucked into this conflict could be very damaging
to their hoped for restructuring.

I think when the spring rains are over, in April or May, then look
for real bellicosity, and then Europe, the US, and the world, may
HAVE to react, or see a fiery regional war destroy a lot of people
every night on TV, and that will stir violence quite quickly. A sad
way to enter the year of 1993, with possible war on the horizon that
will be complicated and messy if it spreads at all. A miserable end
to the year for the defenders of Sarajevo, and heart-breaking that
perhaps 2.5 million of all three groups in Bosnia-Hercegovina have
been victimized one way or another this past year. A pitiful result
for so-called reasoning, Information Age, instant-communicating
people, if you ask me. 1993 promises to be as tumultuous, turbulent
and confusing as 1992 was, and many will just be passed by, casual
victims of pernicious hatreds and prejudices from bygone days given
new life in chaos. The turn continues to the right, and attempts to
go back to "imperialism," but I suspect Serbia will eventually face a
"coalition" in the same manner Saddam Hussein did, with considerably
higher-cost results for both sides. I'd like to believe Boutros-Gahli
to be right, that a little more time be given to peace, but I fear
war has already been decided upon. We shall see, to paraphrase the
departed Gorbachev, who has been silent on this unfolding puzzle.
Peace is not coming soon in the Balkans. VMS
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