From: gavan@elc.mth.uct.ac.za (Gavan Tredoux)
Subject: Re: UPI: Ciskei troops kill fifteen as ANC marches on Ciskei capital
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 92 14:23:40 GMT
Organization: University of Cape Town
X-Newsreader: Tin 1.1 PL4

shaze@cs.ubc.ca (Scott Hazelhurst) writes:
: Politics is about influencing other people. It's funny how most
: white South Africans and others applauded the mass action in
: East Europe which brought down the regimes in East Germany
: and Czechoslovakia peacefully and even in Romania where it wasn't
: peaceful. 

There isn't any parallel, merely because people are out in the streets
in both cases. The European situation was largely spontaneous, it wasn't
organized by a insurgent organization with a history of armed struggle
and "people's war". One striking difference: in Europe the communists
were the target of the protests, here they lead them. Notice Ronnie 
Kasrils' admission that his Olympic sprint was planned, in defiance of
a magisterial order.

Gcozo is a tin-pot dictator, running a banana republic. However, the ANC
knows that, and they knew what the consequences of that march would be.
They've been battling Gcozo for some time. It's now adundantly
clear that:

a. They wanted the confrontation, and the massacre suits them down to
the ground. Notice similar actions planned for Bophuthatswana.

b. They're trying to unseat all tin-pot dictators who DISAGREE with
them, are not allies. Holomisa runs an IDENTICAL setup in the Transkei,
also after a coup. Why not unseat him? Simple, he's in their fold.
If the Transkei resembles the New South Africa, we're in deep shit. 
Notice also that when Gcozo FIRST seized power the ANC courted him, and
for a while people thought he was in their pocket, but LATER they fell out.
A falling out among thieves, as they say.

c. The idea of UNSEATING people (while the future of the areas in question
is supposed to be settled by negotiation) violates the National 
Peace Accord. It's the notion of SEIZING power, rather than negotiating it.
Seizure can only be violent, because the targets will resist.

d. While this goes on more people will die. This strengthens the hand of the 
ANC in some ways, but weakens them if the international community gets wind
of the strategy.

: For people who don't like the ANC to use mass action, there is
: a simple solution. Have an election for a constituent assembly.

Sure. If you don't like the constitution the ANC proposes (one hellbound
for ethnic chaos) they'll just bulldoze you into accepting it. Well,
if that's their plan, and it seems to be, they're jointly responsible
for the carnage that follows. A silly boy taunting a rabid dog.

: Just have an election. If the
: Nats are going to win, why are they so scared of having an election.

Before you have an election, Scott, you have to have a constitution,
and that's precisely what negotiations were about. Notice the ANC is the
party refusing to talk here, and the one doing it's damndest to
keep them stalled by causing as much conflict as possible. A grotesque
burlesque of violence and counterviolence. And this is what Kasrils and
co. call the "Leipzig Option"? Heaven help us.

: So, why is Gqozo so scared of having a referendum, that
: would solve it.

Ahem, howcome there's no call for one in the Transkei? Isn't it much more
sensible to settle these things through negotiation? After all, you can't
have a referendum without a constitution can you, and seeing the future
of the homelands is what talks are all about, it's quite pointless. Moreover,
it's obvious that free and fair elections in the current climate of violence
are impossible. Given first-hand experience of an ANC aligned grouping's 
treatment of political opponents at UCT, the noble SASCO, I can confidently
predict a farce, in which the contesting parties tear each other to pieces. 
 
: The government needs to think
: very carefully about how it brings to heel the security forces
: which are ot of control (like the Ciskei army and KwaZuly police).

No mention of Holomisa and his merry men. Neither the Ciskei, nor the
Transkei army are under the control of the SA govt. They could easily
step in, in BOTH cases, and take over the govt - but then the ANC wouldn't
want them stepping into the Transkei would they? And aren't these issues
to be settled in talks?

Gavan Tredoux
UCT
Xref: sparky soc.culture.african:4735 alt.activism:16214