From: schubach@boa.cis.ohio-state.edu (bernard william schubach)
Subject: Re: fraternities
Organization: The Ohio State University, Department of Computer and Information Science
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 1992 05:53:58 GMT

Newsgroups a.f.c. and s.women deleted from list!

Please, no flames. :)

In article <1992Apr12.174643.14068@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>Followups directed out of a.f.c....
If you want to change followups, then insert a Followup-to line in your post.

>In article <1992Apr12.123401.4989@ac.dal.ca> 01sybok@ac.dal.ca writes:
>>In article <1992Apr9.185513.15773@news.iastate.edu>, mds@iastate.edu (Mark D. Smucker) writes:
>>> 	``A 1990 national survey of more than 12,000 students
>>> 	by the Campus Violence Prevention Center at Maryland's
>>> 	Towson State University found that about half of all 
>>> 	reported acquaintance rapes were committed by frat members
>>> 	and athletes.''
>>        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>>

>
>>> 	``A 1990 study by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
>>> 	concluded that 34 of the 54 reported sexual assaults were by
>>> 	fraternity men, even though they represent just a quarter of
>>> 	male students on campus.''
>>
<stuff about twisting statistics deleted>
>
>Well, this study will have to be pretty darn unreliable before one could
>question the hypothesis that fraternity members commit a disproportionate
>number of campus rapes.  Did you do any of the calculations?  Let's give
>you the full benefit of the doubt, assume (1) that 90% of the rapes weren't
>reported, and (2) the null hypothesis that fraternity members don't
>commit a disproportionate number of campus rapes.
>
>		Frat Rapes	Non-Frat Rapes		Total
>Reported	    34		      20		  54
>Unreported	   101		     385		 486

Total              135               405                 540
Percent of Total   25%               75%                 

>Percent Reported   25.2%	      4.9%		 10.0%
>
>(Or we can try a more realistic 20% report rate..., just to show that
> I'm not choosing numbers.)
>
>Unreported	    33		     183		 216
>Percent Reported   50.7%	      9.8%		 20.0%

Total               67               203                 270
Percent of Total    24.8%            75.2%             
>
>Either fraternity members are five times more likely to rape or
>victims of fraternity rapes are five times more likely to report the
>rape.  (Or some combination in between, which doesn't hurt the conclusion
>that fraternity members are more likely to commit rape.) 

Where in the world did you get this conclusion from?
What your argument says is,
"Suppose fraternity rapes are five times more likely to be reported than
nonfraternity  rapes. Therefore, fraternity members are five times more
likely to rape someone then nonfraternity members."

In reality what your statistics would show, if they were hypothetically
accurate is that fraternity brothers commit only 25% of rapes,
as opposed to over 50% of rapes.

They in no way show what you are trying to show.

Note that I am NOT taking sides on the fraternity issue.
I am simply pointing out that you shouldn't use
statistics to show something that they don't show.

Any corrections humbly appreciated.

Bernie. :)


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