From: BrianT@cup.portal.com (Brian Stuart Thorn)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Let's be more specific (was: Stupid Shut Cost arguement
Date: Sat,  9 Jan 93 10:07:39 PST
Organization: The Portal System (TM)
  <1993Jan5.215441.21415@ke4zv.uucp> <ewright.726343877@convex.convex.com>
  <1993Jan7.034841.19216@ptdcs2.intel.com>
  <ewright.726515610@convex.convex.com>

>It wouldn't take a crippling accident to ground the Shuttle fleet
>for several months.  History has shown that.  It could be something
>as simple as a crane running into the side of the orbiter stack
>or a problem with the APUs.

   I can think of only one incident during which this happened,
   that being the May-September, 1990 problems with Atlantis and
   Columbia. Neither Orbiter was spaceworthy at that time, for
   two unrelated causes. Bear in mind that Discovery was entirely
   flightworthy at the time but was being held back to meet the
   October, 1990 launch window for Ulysses.

   A crane running into the side of the orbiter stack would result
   in only that particular orbiter being unavailable. The other
   three orbiters and the other KSC launch pad would be uneffected.
   There are many spare APUs in addition to the three installed in
   each orbiter. A problem with one caused a delay in the launch of
   STS-2, and again with STS-31, but only for about two weeks each. 
   A flaw in the External Tank could conceivably bring down the
   fleet, but after fifty-two successful flights, this seems unlikely.
   A bad landing would most likely be an 'act of God' accident, not
   a design flaw that would shut down the fleet for years.
   The propulsion systems seem to me the only real threat to the
   system, and these would cause a crippling accident, beyond the
   realm of this discussion.  
   
>If an orbiter hits one of the wild pigs, which live just yards from
>the Shuttle runway,  it could put the vehicle out of action for more
>than a year, resulting in delays or cancellations of many payloads.

   Sure, and an earthquake could open a canyon in the runway after
   de-orbit burn. Pegasus could pitch-up and smash into the NB-52,
   Titan IV could explode on ignition and wipe out Complex 41, DC-X
   could go wild and splatter itself on Alamagordo... When was the
   last time a 767 ran into a wild pig at Orlando International,
   another runway surrounded by marshland? How about a 747 hitting
   a stray dog at you-name-it suburban airport? Let's stick to the
   probable, please.

>And when (not if -- given enough Shuttle missions, it will happen)
>there is another fatal accident, Congress and the White House will
>shut the program down for at least another two years *if not permanently*.

   I disagree. Congress and the White House will either kill Shuttle
   completely or get it flying again within the year. I don't think
   ANYONE will sit still for another 32-month standdown. If Freedom
   were up and operating, I think the standdown would be a minimum.
   
   Let's just hope the next accident happens when we have a good
   replacement system well along in the development phase.

   -Brian

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brian S. Thorn                                    "If ignorance is bliss,
BrianT@cup.portal.com                               this must be heaven."
                                                -Diane Chambers, "Cheers"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------