From: ems@michael.apple.com (E. Michael Smith)
Subject: Running out of oil.  Was Re: Is car pooling for real? (was Re: Are 
Organization: Apple Computer Inc, Cupertino, CA
Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1992 02:34:31 GMT

In article <1992Jul27.175448.11019@hellgate.utah.edu> tolman%asylum.cs.utah.edu@cs.utah.edu (Kenneth Tolman) writes:

>You fail to see this because we charge so little for oil.  Soon, oil will run
>out (100yrs soon) and then we will not be able to afford our stupid energy
>consumption extravagences.  

Nope.  We are up to our eyeballs in energy sources.  When oil is gone,
we will just use some other source at a (Very Small) increase in cost.

Methanol from coal is about $1.50/gallon of gasoline equivalent.  (Varies
some depending on what you assume ...).

Strangly enough, you can even put a Nuke in your gas tank.  The CHEAPEST
way to make methanol (as identified by some German Engineers, VW?) in
the 1960-70 time range was to use nuclear process heat in the reforming
process.  They had prices projected at less than gasoline.  And that was
with cheap gasoline!

While nuclear power is not unlimited, it does have a practical life
in excess of 1000 years using simple known methods.  Much more with
exotic (but not very) and unproven (but 'reasonable') techniques
such as uranium extraction from granite and thorium reactors, that
ranges up into the 10's of thousands of years.

So, yes, you are right that someday we will run out of cheap energy.
But, no, it won't be in 100 years.  It will be in something on the 
order of 5,000+ years (presuming no significant technological advance
in that time frame).

Then there is methanol from coal (about 400 years worth as a guess.
I can dig up hard numbers and do a formal estimate if pressed, but it
wouldn't be very valuable.  The 'bottom line' is that there are orders
of magnitude more coal reserves than oil.)

Then there is methanol/ethanol from biomass that could run much of 
the vehicle fleet in perpetuity at a cost of about $4/gallon of 
gas equivalent (very rough, from memory.  I think it was actually
much lower, but conservative off the cuff is best ;-)

Then there is fusion, should it ever start working...

And solar thermal at $0.08/kWh (which wasn't good enough to keep LUZ
in business, but is more than good enough for an alternative to being
a pedestrian ...).  I'll take an electric car at that rate before I'll
take a bus, thank you.  All the US could be powered by a 2000 sq. mile
or so area of the desert (+/- 100% still doesn't make it impossible.
We're talking about a 20 x 100 mile area.  You could lose it in the 
badlands of Texas and not know it ...

>We are no closer to any realistic plan because
>we are so shortsided we are pissing into the wind, and it soon will blow
>back into our face.

We are no closer to any realistic plan because
oil is so cheap that it makes absolutely no sense to do anything other
than burn it, and when it is gone (at no significant increase in costs)
we can use the next cheapest VAST energy source.  (coal or nuke, most
likely, depending on the outcome of global warming, acid rain, and long
term rad waste disposal fights.)

>Just because I own no bed and earn 40% less than the poverty level doesn't
>mean I am poor.

Sadly, I agree with you on this...  Just because I own 3 or 4 houses 
(I'm not sure right now ... one is in escrow...) and earn several times
the poverty level doesn't mean I am rich.   The IRS sees to that. 8-(

I AM comfortable & happy, though...  ;-)

-- 

E. Michael Smith  ems@apple.COM

'Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has
 genius, power and magic in it.'  -  Goethe

I am not responsible nor is anyone else.  Everything is disclaimed.