From: spira@panix.com (Greg Spira)
Subject: Re: Mitchell for Charlton and other trades.
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1992 07:10:02 GMT
Organization: PANIX Public Access Unix & Internet, NYC

In article <1992Nov22.025149.818@netcom.com> arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow) writes:
>>Putting Edgar Martinez there is not "wasting" him.  When you've got a
>>guy that can put up a .400 OBP, it isn't wasting him to lead him off.
>>If it's his power you're worrying about, don't.  He doesn't have that
>>much.  This year was clearly a fluke; he's never displayed this much
>>power before ever.  For his career, he has less power than Rickey, and
>>you don't see too many people complaining that it's a waste to use him
>>at leadoff.
>>
>
>Edgar Martinez = Slow.
>
>Edgar Martinez is not Rickey Henderson. He won't steal more than 50 bases
>each year. He doesn't motor around the bases as fast. He doesn't worry
>pitchers when he's on first because they know he isn't going anywhere.
>Edgar Martinez will have trouble scoring runs because you need a triple to
>get him in from first base. See Wade Boggs.
>
>If Edgar can hit .300 with doubles power, they need him in the middle
>of the lineup. Since he makes good contact, he's a good hit and run man
>when there is someone fast on in front of him. To compare him to Rickey
>Henderson is ridiculous.
>
Well, to compare anyone with Rickey Henderson is ridiculous; Henderson
is the best leadoff man of all time, and it's not even close anymore.

But that's not the point.  Let's use your example - let's see Wade
Boggs.  Boggs scored 100 runs 8 straight times, and a lot of that
time he was Boston's leadoff man.  On the other hand, let's look
at Vince Coleman, who only managed to score 100 twice.  How about
Marquis Grissom, who has stolen lots of bases the last 2 years and
rarely gets caught.  He didn't score 100 runs either of the last 2
years.  If you look at the leaders in runs scored every year, you'll
find that the high OBA guys dominate the list, and occassionally the
guys who steal lots of bases (like Grissom) sneak in there.  Heck,
Edgar himself scored 100 runs last year.  If Edgar has such trouble
scoring runs, how did he manage that?

If Seattle had a decent OBA guy (.340) with decent speed, or a barely
acceptable OBA guy (.325) who can steal net 25 to 30 bases, I'd say the
team would be better off with Edgar third.  But the Mariners have Greg
Briley and Henry Cotto, and neither are likely to fit those descriptions
at all.

By the way, I usually assume that for a leadoff hitter, a net stolen
base makes up for about 7/8 of a point of OBP.  So the following two
hitters would be roughly equal:

A:  .355 OBP, 5SBs, 2 CSs
B:  .320 OBP, 70 SBs, 15 CSs

That's just a rough guess, but it's probably pretty close.  Obviously,
if there's a huge difference in speed between the two (as opposed to
stolen base ability; the two don't always correlate well), you would
still prefer B.  But not by all that much, unless A is Mike LaValliere.

And Edgar Martinez is not nearly that slow.  He got 46 doubles last year,
and slow players don't hit 46 doubles.  He stole 14 bases and got caught
only 4 times, which is pretty similar to what Greg Briley did.  

Yes, ideally, Martinez shouldn't lead off for any team.  But the Mariners
do not appear to have any who bears any resemblance whatsoever to a leadoff
hitter.  And unless they acquire someone, with the personnel they have
leading Edgar off would probably maximize their run scoring.

Greg 

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