From: ziad@eng.umd.edu (Ziad K. Cheiban)
Subject: Re: Syria, President Bush and Drugs -- the Administration's Next Iraqg
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 92 21:54:46 GMT
Organization: Project GLUE, University of Maryland, College Park

In article <92362.160702E03SI@CUNYVM.BITNET> <E03SI@CUNYVM.BITNET> writes:

>
>  Fellow Lebanse,
>
>         As citizens of a geographically- and strategically- important
>  country,  it is utterly important to keep in mind   that  the United
>  States of America is always aware of the significance of Lebanon and
>  the resourcefulness of the Lebanese. It is, now, a "given" in Washin-

  IMHO the Lebanese seem to think that they are the center of the world
but that isn't the case. the U.S. doesn't have any vital interests
in Lebanon at this stage, as has been shown by its utter lack of
interest in Lebanese affairs recently. The fact that Clinton has promised
some Lebanese groups that he was going to get tough with Syria etc...
during his election campaign is being blown way out of proportion,
again IMHO. He promised lots of things to lots of different factions
and I seriously doubt that he is going to be able to keep all those
promises. If Clinton does get tough agaisnt Syria, it will be because
of pro-Israeli pressure and not because of pro-Lebanese pressure.
And this, to put it nicely, is not necessarily in Lebanon's best interest.
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is one rule (I would have hoped) the 
Lebanese learned to avoid at their own expense.
  The Israelis, for their part do definitely have some vital interests in
Lebanon. But you are sorely mistaken if you think they are in Lebanon's
interest.

>  gton that the Syrians are the culprits when it comes to analyzing the

  Syria is *one* of the culprits in Lebanon, at some points it has been
the most important one, but I really doubt that Washington didn't know
that.

>  Lebanese problem.  And it is also a fact that the SHAMIR  government
>  and all previous  Likud administrations of ISRAEL   have    had non-
>  aggression treaties with Syria (secretley):  Israel supports     the
>  ALAWI's in Syria and Syria forgets about the GOLAN HEIGHTS.

Do you have any proof of that?
While there does seem to be a tacit agreement between the two countries
I doubt they had anything to do with the Alawites receiving any help.
They don't need it. Or Syria forgetting about the Golan heights.
What else could it do?
These tacit agreements to keep the level of violence to an acceptable
minimum have much more to do with the cold war and  with the facts that
each of these two countries was backed by one of the superpowers.
The most obvious proof that the cold war was over was precisely the
Gulf war, but at the time it was in Israel's and the US's best interest
not to attack Syria. Later on came the peace talks and US pressure
on Israel which also precluded a war with Syria. Should the Clinton
administration let the talks between Syria and Israel flounder
(not that they're achieving brilliant success) then there could be
the possibilty of a war. That's when the western media will "remember"
about all of Hafez El-Asad's previous crimes. Heck, they will
probably want to avenge the deaths of `Aoun's soldiers. Although at
the time `Aoun was in Lebanon he was considered a renegade general etc...
by the same western press. All that, and the fact that he was on notoriously
bad terms with the US will be conveniently forgotten.
  One must not forget that a resurgence of the Israeli factor in Lebanon
will mean the resurgence of the Lebanese Forces et al. and certainly not of
`Aoun who was on very bad terms with the Israelis and their proxies.
That's why I fail to understand why people that are avowedly pro-`Aoun
are overjoyed at that prospect.

>
>         Now that the Likud rule is over,  RABIN is breaking  up  with
>  the Syrians, and   is  helping   the   Clinton Administration    show
>  how tough  it  is on terrorism and how it can be JUST as EFFECTIVE as
>  the BUSH administration in dealing blows to the aggressors of the world.

I don't know if Clinton is too worried about showing how tough he can be
in foreign policy. Bush has given the ultimate proof that the one and
only factor that matters to the American electorate is the economy.
>
>         I predict that the media will RE-EXPOSE all that is known about
>  the Syrians, and will put Hafez Assad under the spotlight as they did
>  with Saddam Housein et al before.  And contrary to common belief,  the
>  Media does now put pressures on Government foreign policy as they   do
>  in domestic policy,  media receives "ORCHESTRATED LEAKS" as a way  for
>  rallying  PUBLIC OPINION for an issue.  Another misconception is  that
>  the USA "cares" about other countries:  the USA cares  ONLY about  the
>  USA and it uses other countries' issues to extent its gains.  The  USA
>  will only Help LEBANON when it stands to gain the most out of the Situation.

I couldn't agree more with all of the above.

>  The time will be right for a new policy is in the SPRING of 1993: Syria
>  will have an internal revolution and Lebanon will have a new Parliamentary
>  Election in the Summer of 1993.

Wishful thinking! The situation in Syria doesn't lend itself to a revolution
a war with Israel is possible in the future however.
And then there might be elections under Israeli pressure.
I know that someone is bound to tell me that I've forgotten about
the Syrian intimidation and pressure in recent elections so let me state
that I haven't.

Begin commercial
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and lower my cholesterol,and my doctor said it's the healthy thing to do.
Plus they taste sooo good!
Shouldn't you switch?
End commercial. ;-}

Not that free and fair elections would solve Lebanon's problems, but 
they're better than nothing.
>
>  These are my predictions (intelligent guesses) as I analyze the current
>  political atmosphere and previous trends in US policies.
>
>
>  W H A T   D O   Y O U    think?
>                                    Al-Lubnani Al-MajHoul
>
>                                    Watani Da-Iman 3ala haK


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