From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Who to watch for '93
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 1992 19:44:31 GMT

In article <1992Aug12.182140.28871@usenet.ins.cwru.edu> eaz@po.CWRU.Edu (Eric A. Zahn) writes:
>In a previous article, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) says:
>
>God, it seems like we had this discussion a year ago, with all the posts!

Probably.  It's a reasonable discussion to reopen every year...  Among
other things, it is one of my best ways to spot prospects I should be
tracking.  Post something ignoring them, and await the flames!


>>Scudder is a Gardiner/Morton level talent.  Worth trading Rob Murphy
>>for.  But a lousy return on Greg Swindell.  At 24 he is the only one
>>of the Indians' "young" pitchers who is actually still young.
>
>People here have been comparing him to Nagy of last year (Nagy was 10-15
>with an ERA in the low 4.00's). Again, as you said, he is relatively young,
>and he could surprise. Or maybe not. You read him quite well.
>He will be the #2/#3 starter next year, and probably will be protected.

An interesting comparison.  But isn't Nagy a couple years younger than
Scudder?  Scudder *looked* like a pretty decent prospect when he was
first brought up several years ago, but he hasn't improved at *all*
since then.

>Exactly right. the coaches have been working on his delivery, and it worked
>the first couple of outing, but his wildness has been painfully evident 
>in his last two outings. Probable protection for the Tribe.

I would protect that bunch at AA *ages* before I would protect Mesa.
No?  Can the Indians afford to protect Mesa?  They don't have any
post-free-agency players, so they will basically need to protect their
entire starting lineup.  Whiten, Lofton, Belle, Sorrento, Jefferson,
Alomar, Thome, Lewis, Baerga.  Add Nagy, Olin, Scudder, and Lilliquist
and you can only protect *two* more players.  Would you protect Mesa
over *any* of the above?

>>If you can't tell the difference between Militello and
>>Otto/Cook/Mesa/Nichols, you aren't looking very hard.  Militello is a
>>better pitcher at a far younger age.  And while he is far from being a
>>                                      ^^^ ^^^^^ ^^ ^^ ^^^ ^^^^ ^^^^^ ^
>>guaranteed success, and will probably have a rough spell or two before
>>^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^  ^^^ ^^^^ ^^^^^^^^ ^^^^ ^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^ ^^^ ^^^^^^
>
>This was my point. He hasn't proved anything yet in the majors, so again,
>wait and see. But I would protect him, and he is a  definite
>canididate to start in 1994 for the Yanks. But already penciling him in
>for next year to have a 3.00-3.50 ERA? Come on. That is stretching
>it a bit.

You would protect him?  How generous!  He is only one of the top five
pitching prospects in AAA this year.

And I never said that he would have a 3.00-3.50 ERA *next* year.
That's more like what I eventually expect from him.  Young pitchers
often have rough spells when they come to the majors.  Especially when
they are rushed through the minors (though Militello wasn't rushed
particularly fast).  Even top prospects often struggle for a couple
years.  Look at Nagy, Clemens, Cone, Maddux...

People don't understand that there is a big difference between
"ineffective next year" and "might never make it".  I'd give high odds
that Militello *will* eventually be a good pitcher in the majors.  It
is reasonably likely that he will be successful next year, but it is
IMHO very likely that he will have a successful career.

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
Ob. woof: Clemens is the best pitcher ever!	tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball