From: shoham@ll.mit.edu (Daniel Shoham)
Subject: Re: war list
Organization: MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 92 03:25:24 GMT

In article <1hih28INNpql@gap.caltech.edu> kwp@wag.caltech.edu (Kevin W. Plaxco) writes:
>It's that time again.  I count 24 wars raging this xmas season.
Actually you are counting countries at war, as Armenia-Azerbijian should
really count as one war.

>I define war:  A political conflict in which at least 1000 people
>have died in one year and at least 100 people per year every year
>since that year.

That might be a strong definition, but allright.

Do you count wars that are "officially" over but have met your body count
requirement this year? (El Salvador for instance)


>Western Hemisphere.
>
>Guatamala.  Central America's last war hangs on.
>
>Columbia.   Just when you thought it was all over...
>
>Peru.       How much longer can Sendero hold out?
            -- Longer than anyone would like, I'm fear. But they too are
               begining to crack.
>
>Bolivia.    Haven't heard much about this one lately, Eh?
            -- Not sure they had a 100 count this year.


>Eastern Hemisphere:
>
>Europe:
>
>Former Yuogoslavia.  Nuff said.
>
>Question. Anyone know if the basqu, catalonian or IRA sepratists movments
>quailify?

Not even close. They haven't had a 100-count since the seventies. (I doubt if
they had a 100-count between them in recent history).


>Asia:
>
>FSU.  1)Georgia, 2)Armenia, 3) Azerbijian. That about does it for the FSU.
I am not sure any of the above reached the 1000-count in any single year
(propoganda numbers aside, there is very little reliable info). I don't know
if the Tajik crisis qualifies, but (this year) it is probably deadlier than
all the Trans-Caucasian wars combined. There is also a fairly serious conflict
in Moldovia ("Eastern Denister Republic").
Although more or less peacefull (in relative terms), through shear volume alone
Russia may meet your criteria (and may even be the only FSUR to do so :-)
>
>Iraq.  1) The Kurds, 2) the Shites.
>
>Lebanon.  Who isn't fighting who?
>
>India. 1) Kashmire,  2) Sikkim,  3) Punjab
>
>Sri Lanka.  The Tamils still want their homeland.
>
>Burma.   Karen Rebels are still duking it out with the central government.
>
>Cambodia.  Things are still a bit hot there.
>
>Indonesia.  1) Timor, 2) Accra, 3) Irian Jiya
I don't think you get the 100 count for each of the 3, but you do between them.

>Philipines. Doesn't the PLA know communism is dead?
>
>
>Africa.  
>
>Morocco.  Still trying to knock off SWAPO.
            -- Not sure they had a 100 count this year.
>
>Liberia.  Another Lebanon in africa story.
>
>Angola.   May God damn Savimbi.
           --- Don't think that would make a diff.
>
>Mozambique.  Does RENAMO even make rationalizations as to why they fight?
              --- They do. It is called anti-communism. They may misuse the
               term, but that's how they rationalize it. (Interestingly, the
               cut-off of South African support bearly put a dent on their
               efforts [or in Savimibi's]).
>
>Ruwanda.  Peace accords are moving ahead smartly.
>
>The Sudan.  Islamic fundamentalists again.
             --- Actually the Muslims are the government. The rebels are those
             damned blacks in the South who just can't see they ways of Allah.
>
>Somalia.  'Nuff said.
>
>
>Questions.
>
>Do Ethiopia, Zaire, Chad, and Namibia really belong off the list?

Not sure about Ethiopia (it might get into the question of "do death due to
starvation due to infrastructure breakdown due to a war that ended count?") the
rest are off the list.


Add to the list:

Haiti.         Do drowning refugees count?
Turkey.        A serious anti-Kurd action this year.
S. Africa.     The usual, mostly "black-on-black", with some "white-on-black"
Nigeria.       Nothing special, but when you are that large it's hard not to
                 have a 100-count.
Afghanistan    It aint over yet.

Iran, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Russia:  See Nigeria.
Vietnam: see Haiti.


Dan Shoham               shoham@ll.mit.edu
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