From: barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS: ANGOLA: HOPES TO AVERT CIVIL WAR RISE, SAVIMBI BACKS DOWN
Originator: barnhart@gagme
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1992 01:12:28 GMT

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Africa, north
Title: ANGOLA: HOPES TO AVERT CIVIL WAR RISE, SAVIMBI BACKS DOWN


luanda oct 7 (ips/vicki finkel, ruby ofori) -- fears of a resort
to arms by defeated presidential candidate jonas savimbi abated
with the announcement wednesday by a senior unita spokesman that
the former rebel movement would accept a thorough verification
of the recently held poll result.

in the capital luanda, salupeta pena told reporters all unita
could hope for was a fair reassement by angola's national
electoral council (cne).

pena's statement repaired the damage caused by savimbi's
earlier broadcast on sunday on unita's radio vorgan in which he
threatened to send his fighters back into action unless the cne
examined allegations of electoral fraud and suspended its
regular anouncements which showed the ruling mpla in the lead.

diplomatic sources and close business colleagues said savimbi
was embittered and could not believe his unfolding defeat.

the former guerrilla leader claimed the process had been
rigged by mpla and that ballot boxes had been tampered with and
voters intimidated by armed members of angola's year-old police
riot squad.

these allegations plus the withdrawal of former
unita soldiers from the newly unified angola army of 50,000,
gave credibility to the civil war threat.

it confirmed earlier predictions of senior angolan
politicians, including daniel chipenda and simao cacete both
presidential candidates that there would be a resort to arms
should either of the formerly warring parties lose the
elections.

cacete had warned that if unita lost it had enough stocks of
arms to fight on for five months. during the period of voting,
u.n. election monitors noted unita arms caches in northern zaire
province among others.

this plus the battle readiness of savimbi's guerrillas forty
per cent of whom where estimated still at large outside their
collection points gave cause for alarm.

pena's words of reconciliation were delievered only a
day after unita secretary general, mango alcers, had warned that
''if the national electoral council continues to release
election results they will be responsible for what might come to
happen in the country.'' (more/ips)


angola: hopes (2)

analysts here believed that if savimbi returned to war it
would be without the support of former backers the united states
and south africa. but the possibility of private backing from
right wing u.s. business and international arms dealers could
not be ruled out.

savimbi had vowed to become president of this southern
african state before he died and many observers believe his
electoral chances were very high last year following the peace
accords ending 16-years of civil war when angolans had a chance
to here him speak for the first time.

with around 33 per cent of the parliamentary votes most of
them gleaned from rural areas, unita can at least claim to be
the party of the rural poor the bulk being savimbi's ovimbundu.

urban angolans also looked to savimbi to provide an
alternative to the mpla's corruption and mismanagment. president
eduardo dos santos, though popular, had ruled for 13 years and
was not considered powerful enough to reform the mpla which
remains bureaucratic and highly centralised.

however the split in unita with dissidents alleging
gross human rights abuses, savimbi's open threats to ''deal
with'' anyone who did not vote for him, plus his domination of
the election campaigning giving unita the impression of being a
one man show, swung the electorate to dos santos and the mpla.

western diplomats and business have been charmed by the
dashing dos santos who has embraced the principles of a
multi-party democracy fuelled by a free market economy and the
angolan electorate was wooed by what has been described as one
of the most sophisticated election campaigns in africa.

pressure on savimbi to back down on his threats of violence
came fast and hard. u.s. assistant of state for african affairs,
herman cohen said that the withdrawal of unita troops from the
unified army represents ''a violation of the angolan peace
accords'', signed last may.

pena responded by saying that ''cohen is not angolan. this
dispute must be worked out by angolans. if there is a war here
angolans will suffer and the u.s. will pull out their
observers.''

wednesday afternoon, savimbi, the former freedom fighter was
incommunicado. not even senior south african diplomats could
contact him to arrange a meeting with south african foreign
minister pik botha

the cna earlier schedule to announce the final and conclusive
results on oct. 9 may be delayed as a result of the compromise
made in response to unita's allegations. part of the review
includes verification of the cne's main computer network by
unita officials wednesday. (end/ips/vf/ro/oa/92)