From:  (Gerry Gryschuk)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: NLCS Game #5 at 9:41
Date: 15 Oct 92 21:51:46 GMT
Organization: University of Saskatchewan

From article <7637@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP>, by psg+@pitt.edu (Paul S Galvanek):
> In article <1992Oct13.153336.20166@access.usask.ca> (Gerry Gryschuk) writes:
>>
>>Oh I see so Bonds can hit anything is that what your saying? Are you
>>seriously trying to make the case that Bonds should swing at pitchers
>>that are clearly unhittable? Besides a batters job is to not make an
>>out period! Now some nonouts are better than others but all nonouts are
>>better than outs.
>>
> 
> No I'm not saying he should swing at everything.  I'm saying that several
> times this series there have been situations that prove to me that statistical
> analysis, while being useful for some things, is inadequate as an explination
> of everything that goes on in the game.  I fully expect that I'll now hear that
> no one here has ever made that arguement, but I know I have.  

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 ....

Ok I feel better now. Look I've been lurking on this group for some 2 years
now, only recently have I found that my feelings are not being adequately
represented here. Now in that 2 years I have never seen anyone who knows
anything about statistics suggest that you can predict everything that is
going to happen in a baseball game through the use of statistical analysis.
Think about it, if you could predict what was going to happen than any of the
Statheads on this group would be in Jamaica or somewhere counting all the
money they had won. So if your going to set up a strawman certainly people
are going to deny it.

Statistics tell you things about averages or tendencies throughout the
course of a season, they tell you less than nothing about what will happen
at any given moment in a ball game. Statistics are not laws of nature, 
noone can predict when Barry Bonds will hit a homer. Statistics can suggest
that in any given *year* Bonds will hit somewhere around 30-40 homers but
they can't tell in which at bat he will do so. Noone could have predicted
that Jose Lind would boot a ball like he did in Game 7, however noone would
rule out the possibility that it may happen.
> 
[some stuff deleted ...]
> 
> In this situation  drawing the walk certianly increases a number like OBP
> but that is not always a good thing.  You would easily be able to argue that
> Bonds' high OPB is clear evidence that he's a superior hitter - and you'd get
> no arguement from me.  But I believe it is an equally plausible arguement that
> a high OPB demonstrates a lack of "protection".  Whether statistically 
> demonstrated or not, this stituation in game 4 (?) which is in no way a unique
> occurance at least hints that "protection" does exist.
> 

So even if protection does exist, I am not convinced one way or the other,
how is it a bad thing for Bonds to accept the walk when given to him rather
than swinging at bad pitches. That is what we're arguing about, at least
I thought so. You've not only suggested it but came right out and said
that it would be better for Bonds to have attempted to get the hit, by
swinging at bad pitches, and failed than to let King swing at good
pitches.  Asking Bonds to swing at bad pitches will in effect make him into a
Jeff King since you don't want King hitting in that situation why would you
want Bonds to swing like he was Jeff King?

> To the other matter, as to whether my assertion that someone claimed a hit and
> walk are the same (or some variation on that theme), sorry but some of you may
> choose at this time to deny making that arguement but I know that's not the case
> Repeatedly through out the season(s) when a r.s.b regular sees his/her favorite 
> player attacked for having a low BA, the first thing they point to is their
> OBP and follow up with "see he walked x number of times and that's just as 
> good as a hit." 
> 
> In fact my first assaults on Bobby Bonilla's inconsistant BA (over his
> career) were responded to with that very arguement.
> 

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 ...

Nope didn't work this time. I am not a prominent poster, I have no connection
to any of the Statheads one way or the other and I have no reason to defend
them accept for the fact that I know your doing them wrong. So please if
your going to throw out an accusation that some of the more insightful
posters on this group are lieing please be man enough to provide concrete
evidence. Vague accusations about previous arguements just doesn't cut
it, if it's so clear to you, you should be able to say who it was that
made this arguement.
> 
> PSG
--
Gerald Gryschuk            Saskatoon,Saskatchewan = a place with 9 months
gerry@sask.usask.ca           of hockey and 3 months of poor skating.
Go Habs!!!		             (Maldonado is a bum.)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball