From: eebonar@sn01.sncc.lsu.edu (Dave Bonar)
Subject: Re: 1993 opening day roster musings, Colorado and Florida
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Reply-To: eebonar@sn01.sncc.lsu.edu
Organization: News and Views from LSU
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1992 21:34:02 GMT
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In article <9854@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP>, genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes...
>OK, we all know that the current rosters of the Rockies and Marlins have
>some *big* holes in them, but it's still useful, I think, to take a peek
>at what sort of lineups the two teams could field right now.  At least that
>will give us some idea of where the fastest action has to be in plugging
>those holes.

Sounds good.  

>Let me start by admitting that I really don't know enough about the 472
>pitchers selected to tell which of the not-yet-major-leaguers might start
>next season in the bigs.

I'm in the same boat.  However, even with my relatively meager knowledge it
looks like the pitching will not be the biggest worries of either club.

>These are the best lineups I could come up with, for position players.  In
>cases where I'm sure the team in question will disagree, I've put their 
>suspected preference in parentheses.
> 
>	Colorado Rockies			Florida Marlins
> 
>C	Joe Girardi			C	Steve Decker
>1B	Eric Wedge (Galarraga)		1B	Jeff Conine
>2B	Eric Young			2B	Bret Barberie
>SS	Freddie Benavides		SS	Walt Weiss
>3B	Charlie Hayes			3B	Chris Donnels 
>LF	Braulio Castillo (Je. Clark)	LF	Monty Farris
>CF	Alex Cole			CF	Jesus Tavarez? (Is he ready?)
>RF	Dante Bichette			RF	Junior Felix
> 
>If Jesus Tavarez isn't ready for the bigs, that leaves Junior Felix in center,
>and either Conine in right (with no first baseman) or one of Chuck Carr,
>Nigel Wilson, or Darrell Whitmore.  Which one is closest?

I quibble a little with some of the suggestions (I think Galarraga is a better
hitter then Girardi so I'd put Wedge at catcher and start the Cat;  similarly
I'd start Scott over Donnells).  However I agree in principle.  But I'm not
so sure that both lineups rot.  The Rockies are a wasteland.  Cole and Wedge
(as a catcher) seem to be the only really good (ie above average) players on
the Rockies.  If the increase in Bichette's OBA last year is for real then
he isn't too bad.  Similarly, they aren't really any worse at SS then many
other teams are at one infield spot so I won't hold that against them.  This
give the Rockies 4 basically average positions and 4 horrible ones.  IE, they
stink.

The Marlins stink too but I think they are much closer to just being a bad
team instead of the legendarily bad Rockies.  I'd love to see predicitons
(MLE or STATS predicitons or even Brock2 type things) but I think they can
manage to be as good at the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox or Angels.  They need
one outfielder (cf or rf).  However, the following lineup really doesn't look
that bad to me (of course, I've been an Astro fan for a couple of years now).

c	Natal / Decker	(I can't decide by I'd lean towards Natal)
1b	Conine
2b	Barberie
3b	Scott
ss	Arias
lf	Fariss
cf	Carr / Tavarez
rf	Felix
inf	Weiss, Donnells
of	???
	(everyone else, including the other CF but not the second catcher,
	go to AAA/AA)

	With the addition of a couple of reasonable (not superstar) free agents
(mainly the cf/rf mentioned above) this team looks fairly comprable with the
following lineup;

c	Slaught/LaValliere
1b	Merced
2b	Lind
3b	King
ss	Bell
lf	Martin
cf	Van Slyke
rf	McClendon

	Obviously Van Slyke and the catchers are better then the comprable
positions on the Marlins.  But I'd rather have Conine then Merced, Barberie
has the potential to be better then Lind even when defense is included, I'd
take Scott/Donnells over King (Scott and Donnells really can't be worse and
might be better).  Martin and McClendon vs. Fariss and Felix is a toss up in
my mind.  Considering that Slaught, LaValliere, Lind, King, Bell, Van Slyke
and McClendon are all older then their counterparts I don't think the Marlins
are in too bad of a mess.

>You know what?  These teams rot.  If Florida could sign Mark McGwire and
>Kirby Puckett, they'd at least not get laughed out of the league.  Colorado,
>on the other hand, is looking at a total of maybe *one* above-average 
>offensive player, and no great defense either.
> 
>The sad part is that *both* of these teams would gladly have snapped up Jeff
>King, had the Pirates allowed them to do so.  *sigh* ...

	I'm not sure of this.  Tatum, who looks better then King to me, lasted
until the second round.  The Rockies might have taken King instead of Hayes
but I don't see anything that indicates either team would have felt that
King was a great pickup.  

>I can't help but think that the real action of this draft went on under the
>table, with deals being cut (in what coin, I can't imagine) whereby the new
>teams left all the *real* steals alone...  Maybe that's why the MLB owners
>didn't want the protected lists made public: because it we be obvious that the
>whole draft was a sham, with the real expansion happening in a smoke-filled
>room somewhere.

	I think we just got too excited about the prospect of a draft.  I'd
be interested in seeing how the players drafted this time compare to the 
players drafted in previous expansions (I know the rules were different;
it would still be interesting).  I don't have the resources to do this or
I would.  

	Before the draft it looked like there was loads of available talent.
However, much of it was concentrated on a few teams thus allowing people like
Keith Mitchell and Stairs to be protected when more tempting ones got 
taken ahead of them.  Additonally, it didn't help the teams when they 
(especially the Rockies) drafted in just the way traditional baseball people
stereotypically think.  They went for players with speed (Carr, Moore from
KC), or 'potential' (Whitmore), or players with the label of being productive
major leaguers (Clark, Hayes, Felix).  How could we expect otherwise; that's
the type of actions we see all the time from GM's.

Dave
__________
Dave Bonar
eebonar@lsuvax.sncc.lsu.edu
__________

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