From: gary@ke4zv.uucp (Gary Coffman)
Newsgroups: ca.earthquakes,sci.geo.geology
Subject: Re: EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
Keywords: Piezo-electrical, ELF, VLF, Pre-cursors, magnetic, RF
Date: 27 Jul 92 05:16:09 GMT
Reply-To: gary@ke4zv.UUCP (Gary Coffman)
Organization: Gannett Technologies Group

In article <2A72431E.4069@noiro.acs.uci.edu> lockhart@mothra.nts.uci.edu (Jack C. Lockhart) writes:
>
>I picked up this article titled: [BROADCAST BAND APPARENT FREQUENCY
>DEVIATIONS AND EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING - A 15 MONTH REPORT] and could-
>n't put it down.  A quick call to the author and publisher secured
>permission to post this paper to Usenet.  [*] Graphs and pictures
>have been deleted.  Visit your local library of write the author if
>you want to view the graphs, charts and pictures.
>
>
>BROADCAST BAND APPARENT FREQUENCY DEVIATIONS AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST-
>ING - A 15 MONTH REPORT
>
>          WINTER 1990\COMMUNICATIONS ELECTRONICS JOURNAL 191
>
>                ANARC NEWSLETTER, August\September 1989
>
>                          by Raymond F. Cole
>         1918 N. Kings Highway, Cap Girardeau, MO, 63701, USA
>                            (314) 335-1496
>
>[Copyright 1988 by Michael G. Knitter, National Radio Club, Inc.  The
>following article was originally published in the 11 April 1988 issue
                                                   ^^^^^^^^
>of DX News.  It was voted "Article of the Year" by the ANARC Club
>Representatives.]

Bizzare article mostly deleted. Seems it may have been published originally
about ten days late. On the off chance it's real, I have a few comments.

>     The phenomena that was accidentally discovered in December, 1986,
>was that within the 550 to 1600 kilohertz broadcast band there were
>apparent shifts of frequencies, occasionally as much as 15 kHz on a
>superhet radio, even though the transmitters are allowed a tolerance
>of only .05 khz by the FCC and even though most modern transmitters
>automatically shut down with a deviation of .5 khz.

Minor point. Frequency tolerance of standard broadcast stations is
20 Hz. (+/- 10 Hz) not 50 Hz as stated. A 15 kHz deviation from the
assigned frequency is 1.5 channels. This would be highly noticable
due to the interference it would offer to other stations. Standard
broadcast has been around for a long time, yet there is no mention
of rogue stations in the extensive FCC data, the NAB Handbook, or
the ITT Handbook. 

The author goes on to note the deviations were quite pronounced on
a crystal set, reporting up to 40 kHz deviations. And also existed,
but much less pronounced, 3 kHz, on two cheap analog superhets, and
15 kHz in a reputed FCC monitoring van. He also rules out temperature, 
moisture, ground conductivity, magnetic field variations, etc as causes 
of the anomalities. He claims they are the result of earthquake stress. 
He also notes that different frequencies in the standard broadcast band 
appear to move in different ways. And that stations below the standard 
broadcast band do not move, though he didn't mention what sort of receiver 
was used to confirm this. He then goes into an involved discussion on 
bizzare ways to automatically measure frequency shift. (an FM detector 
and low pass filter would give him the information he wants to record
on his stripchart recorder, but he doesn't seem to be very aware
of basic radio circuitry.)

[deleted]
>     However, a theory advanced by the radio engineer, previously
>mentioned, who installs transmitter, seems much more likely to be the
>actual cause.  His theory is that quartz under pressure vibrates
>electrically and can then transmit radio waves.
>     Quartz crystals are a very common use in the radio field and in
>many other fields.  Quartz ignites on stoves, furnaces, bar-b-ques and
>other gas appliances are a good example.  When the quartz is struck a
>light blow, it emits a strong spark.  The engineer theorized that
>radio frequency signals emitted by quartz are mixing with man-made
>radio frequency signals and the resulting mix, as in a receiver's
>mixing circuit, is the apparent deviation received.  In such case,
>different stratas or "lumps" of quartz are emitting different frequen-
>cies--due to differences in size and in pressure at different loca-
>tions--which is why one frequency has different deviation from anoth-
>er.

This explanation has holes in it big enough to drive a Mack truck.
Pressure alone doesn't cause quartz to exhibit the piezoelectric
effect. What is required is a change in pressure. The steeper the
slope of the pressure change, the higher the voltage generated.
To get radio frequency oscillations out of uncut quartz would
require that the pressure be varying at an RF rate. While that's
not impossible, the explanation sounds lame and doesn't explain
how a mixer product appearing elsewhere on the dial would cause
the fundamental to simultaneously disappear from it's normal position.
Nor does it explain *where* the mixing is occuring. Mixing requires
a nonlinear device. It also doesn't explain why this should only happen
in the standard broadcast band. Indeed, if RF were being generated by
pressure changes in the quartz, the expected result would be broadband
noise across the spectrum since the quartz is uncut and likely to generate
a signal at arbitrary frequencies.

>                              CONCLUSIONS
>
>     CONCLUSION ONE - Apparent tuning frequency deviations on the AM
>broadcast band are a well-proven and now well-documented fact, and in
>this area at least, are almost always existent on one or two of about
>twelve most usually monitored frequencies, are frequent on many, and
>usually range between one and three kilohertz--most often up-frequen-
>cy.  Prior to a tremor, 10 khz is frequent.

I don't believe the author has established this frequency shifting as
fact. In 28 years in broadcasting I've never heard of it. Anyone else
have experience with such unexplained shifts?

>     CONCLUSION TWO - Similar deviations, though not as great, can be
>found in areas not located on or near known active fault areas,
>provided one is looking for them with an accurate dial and keeps a
>record of previous log readings.

Since most radios today, except the very cheapest, use digital dials,
I'd expect that this result would be easily noted.

>                               THEORIES
>
>     THEORY ONE - Pressure on rock and the quartz deposits in the rock
>generate a signal mixing with broadcast band radio frequency signals
>forming a mix which is received as an apparent tuning deviation.

This doesn't explain how a "mix" could remove the original fundamental
signal.

>     "Traveling pressure waves" evidently push against a bottom-of-
>the-crust "bump" here at the New Madrid Fault, sometimes cause a
>tremor, and then move on westward in relation to the crust.  The top-
>of-the-surface speed calculated to approximately twelve miles per
>hour.  Therefore stress indicated in Southeast Missouri arrives on the
>West Coast in about 6.36 days.  This makes it sometimes possible, even
>with very rudimentary equipment, to predict quake risk for California
>from Missouri, and the approximate timing, but not the severity. 
>Local AM radio monitoring in California could probably indicate the
>latter with a day or two additional last minute warning.

If this were true, then there should be a correlation between quakes
in Missouri and California with a 6.36 day lag. No such correlation
has been reported.

I believe this article was the result of a delayed wave that caused
the original publication date to be shifted ten days. That wave was
probably generated by the publisher due to his publication schedule.

Gary KE4ZV