HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Jack is a winner
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Sun, 27 Sep 1992 19:44:29 GMT

In <1992Sep26.222036.16948@r-node.gts.org> shadow@r-node.gts.org (Jay Chu) says:
>In <19om09INN47i@uwm.edu> paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger) writes:

>> Flame away if you want, but I guarantee you can't find one general manager
>> or player that would want to face Morris late in the year, no matter what
>> the stats say. 

>Well salty, I'm with you.  This is exactly why Jack Morris is a winner.
>Who gives a damn about ERA if you consistently lose games.  No matter

Quite true.  Except pitchers can't lose games.  Or win them.  Only teams
can.  You see, winning a game involves scoring more runs than your
opponents.  And a pitcher can't score runs.  (Except in the NL, and then
only minimally.)  Which means he can only do *half* the job of winning or
losing a game.

>how high the ERA is, if at the end of 9 innings, you get the W, you have
>done your job right, and YOU ARE A WINNER.  This may depend on luck.  Who

If you get lucky, you've done your job?  No, you've gotten lucky.

Take football as an example -- let's suppose you've got a running back who
fumbles the ball, but his teammate, who happens to be nearby, picks it
up and runs for a touchdown.  Did the running back "do his job"?  Of
course not.  His teammate did a good job.  The running back sucked big time.

Or take the case of an outfielder who allows a grounder to the outfield
to go under his glove, allowing it to go to the wall.  The batter rounds 
second, but another outfielder picks the ball up at the wall and fires it 
to the infield.  It's relayed to third, where the batter is tagged out.  
Did the first outfielder "do his job"?  No, of course not.  He messed up
big time.  He got lucky that it didn't hurt the team.  His *teammate* is
the one who did a good job.

If you're a pitcher who allows 8 runs in 9 innings, but your teammates
come back and score 9 runs, did you do your job?  No, your teammates did
a good job.  You did a lousy one.

>knows.  But Jack Morris is a valuable asset to the Jays.

Of course, but that's a separate issue.  *Any* pitcher who can pitch
200+ innings with a better than average ERA is a valuable asset to a team.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1992 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Brady Anderson 1992 AL MVP
Vote Clinton/Gore '92.   Four more months!	   SIGN BARRY BONDS!!!!
From: lynch@hpcc01.corp.hp.com (Howard Lynch)
Date: Thu, 24 Sep 1992 17:57:11 GMT
Subject: Charlton?
Organization: OCD IC MFG
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball

Hey Reds fans: 

What's the status of Norm Charlton?

Thanks for any info/feedback.

Howard Lynch
aka Lynch "MOB"
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re:  BAERGA FOR AL MVP!!!
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 92 06:16:43 GMT

In article <9210040447.AA03564@bottom.magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu> C Robert Claydon <cclaydon@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu> writes:
>I agree wholeheartedly!!!  (except witht the notion that joe carter should even
>be vaguely considered for MVP)
>
>And to add more fuel to the fire, Baerga has had quite probably the most 
>overall excellent by an AL second-sacker EVER!  Yes, that's right, and no, I'm 
>not smoking anything funny.  Baerga the other night got his 200th and 201st 
>hits of the season, to make him the first EVER AL 2bman to hit .300+ with 20 
>homers, 200 hits and 100 RBI in the same season.  The only other 2bman (in the 
>NL) to do it was some putz name Rogers Hornsby. :-)  (By the way, Baerga is the
>first AL 2bman to drive in 100 runs since _Bobby Doerr_.  That's almost as long
>ago as the last time the Indians had  decent team on the field... :-)

These "club" thingies are next to worthless.  HoJo has been a 30-30 man 3
times.  Does that make him a HOF candidate?

Besides, *even* with 200 hits, Baerga has a lower OBP than either Roberto
Alomar or Lou Whitaker.  This shows something about his lack of patience
(relatively).

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
From: tkaczuk.apple.com (Rick Donnelly)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Real-life rulebook trivia
Date: 29 Sep 92 00:14:26 GMT
Organization: Apple

... Stuff omitted

Len Reed writes:

> >Perhaps you are correct, but I've never seen an appeal made on a runner that
> >neglected to touch a base (first, second or third, that is) until the ball was
> >dead and the runner had reached at least one base beyond the one missed.
> 
> You probably have seen it.  There are very specific rules for when the
> ball becomes dead, and none of them involve this play.  Unless a player
> has called time, the ball remains live during the entire time up to and
> including the point at which the appeal is made.
> 
>      ----Jon Hamkins  (hamkins@uiuc.edu)
>          University of Illinios
>          Urbana, IL
> 
This happened (most notably) during an Atlanta vs SF game in (I believe) 1970.
Aaron hit a ball in right center and Mays flagged the ball down in time to see
Aaron, already past second and heading for third. Rather than try for the play
at third, Mays threw to Fuentes (Tito) at second and yelled for him to tag the
base. Fuentes, although somewhat confused, did so and the ump called Aaron out
for missing the bag. After the game, an interviewer asked Mays how he knew 
Aaron missed the bag when his back was to 2nd base when the play occurred. 
Mays replyed, "I know Henry. When I turned, I saw him hesitate before heading
to third and I knew that he'd missed the base and was considering going back
to tag second."

Not only does this illustrate that the ball need not be dead, it shows one 
reason why Mays was one of the best ball players ever. There are few who
have studied their opponents rigorously enough to recognize how they would 
behave when they missed a bag.

Rick
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: gerry@macadam.mpce.mq.edu.au (Gerry Myerson)
Subject: Re: Career Active Home Run Leaders
Originator: gerry@macadam.mpce.mq.edu.au
Organization: School of MPCE, Macquarie University, Australia.
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1992 00:22:22 GMT



In article <168731799.O1DOUG@VM1.CC.UAKRON.EDU>, O1DOUG@VM1.CC.UAKRON.EDU (Doug Miller) writes:
> 
>    I seem to remember that going into the 64 season Duke Snyder had over
> 400 home runs, at least more than Mays 406, if you have the info could
> you clarify.

Snider had 403 going into 1964, according to my references, and 407 at the 
end of that season. 

Gerry Myerson
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dave@snitor.sni.ca (Dave Till)
Subject: Re: Jack is a winner
Organization: People Hoping For A Shrinking AL East Magic Number, Inc.
Date: Fri, 25 Sep 1992 14:37:17 GMT

In article <6129@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP>, Monsieur Le Docteur says:
>I would think that a more reasonable conclusion is the opposite one: that,
>since any pitcher would have won those games with that kind of run support,
>it was irrelevant who was pitching for the Jays.  Thus, Morris has made almost
>no personal mark on the season; his level of performance made no difference in
>the outcomes of most of those games, and was thus of no value either way.

I wouldn't go that far.  Morris has had two positive effects:

(1)  He has pitched a lot of innings.  Every inning he pitches is one
inning less pitched by Wells, Timlin, Macdonald, Hentgen, Weathers,
and the other prospects and suspects that lurk in the dark corners of
the Jays' pen.  That's got to be worth a couple of wins at least.

(2)  Morris was the only Jay pitcher who was pitching well during the Great
Blue Jays Pitching Collapse in August.  Morris did what an ace pitcher is
supposed to do:  nip those losing streaks in the bud.

As to whether some other pitcher would have done just as well:  we,
obviously, can't know one way or the other.  However, pitching slumps,
like hitting slumps, tend to be contagious:  once one member of the staff
starts to struggle, the rest of the staff starts trying too hard, which
means they begin to struggle as well.  Morris seems immune to this
sort of pressure; I don't think that many pitchers are.  This, IMHO,
is what makes him valuable.

I'd still rather have Mussina, mind you, but I'm not complaining...

>Now, Guzman, on the other hand...

I'm rather worried about Guzman.  He's been far less than superhuman since
his return.  He may not have fully recovered from his injury, or may have
lost that extra edge of confidence.  At this moment, I'd rather have Cone
or Key in there than the Great Juan.

--Dave "hoping for a World Series in more than one country" Till
e-mail path:  dave@silver.sni.ca or dave@snitor.uucp
(crossing his fingers)
From: kday@oasys.dt.navy.mil (Kevin Day)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Gammons' Awards
Date: 30 Sep 92 17:10:45 GMT
Reply-To: kday@oasys.dt.navy.mil (Kevin Day)
Organization: Carderock Division, NSWC, Bethesda, MD

In article <1992Sep30.032307.23944@dvorak.amd.com>,
>
>>Peter Gammons listed his postseason award predictions (choices?)
>>on SportsCenter on Tuesday.
>>           American League        National League
>>Manager    Tony LaRussa           Jim Leyland
>

  I agree with the selection of Tony LaRussa. For the A's to take that
division with all the injuries that have had, has earned him the honor.
I don't agree with the selection of Leyland though. The Pirates went
into the season looking like a second place finisher to the beefed up
New York Mets. The Mets never got out of the starting block. The surprise,
IMHO, in that division, was the Montreal Expos. When Felipe Alou took
over the team early in the season, they looked like another NL East
also ran. He took a so-so team and turned them into a serious contender
for the division crown. I would, without reservation, give the NL manager
of the year award to Felipe Alou.


K. Scott Day   (kday@oasys.dt.navy.mil)
Carderock Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center
Code 1252
Bethesda, Maryland 20084-5000

------------------------------------------------------------------------
*    "The point to remember is that what the government gives       
*     it must first take away."
*                                        -John S. Coleman           
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Bonds "choke"?
From: Jeff Pierce <JPIERCE@MIAMIU.BITNET>
Date: Saturday, 3 Oct 1992 18:20:16 EDT
Organization: Miami University - Academic Computer Service

I believe that the most recent Elias mentioned that Bonds is tied with
Gene Tenace for consecutive hitless ABs with runners on base in league
championship play (0 for 16 last year and 0 for 4 in his final ABs in
1990).  Any guess as to how far he may stretch it this year?
 
I don't know if Bonds chokes or not (the sample size is too small, but
possibly will continue to grow), but he hasn't been productive to date.
Maybe this year will be different.  Maybe we'll see him lifted for a
pinch-hitter if he continues to struggle and the Pirates need someone
to put across the tying/winning run in Game Six or Seven.
 
                                       Jeff
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: kuras@aiag.enet.dec.com ()
Subject: Re: Bob Uecker
Reply-To: kuras@aiag.enet.dec.com ()
Organization: Digital Equipment Corporation
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 16:44:53 GMT


From: dahl@email.sp.unisys.com (Larry Dahl)

< I first started hearing about Bob Uecker back when Howard Cosell was
< still on Monday Night Football.  They'd show some wackily dressed bozo
< in the stands, and Howard would gasp "It's Bob Uecker!"  Then one night
< the cameras picked out a fellow wearing a T-shirt that said 
< 'Bob Uecker'.  Howard started laughing and then said "That is NOT Bob
< Uecker!"

Larry, your reply jogged my memory a bit.  After several weeks of Cosell's
"There's Uecker" lines, didn't ABC set up Cosell with a practical joke. If
I recall correctly, at one particular game, the camera picked up on a guy
walking thru the stands in a gorilla outfit.  As the camera zoomed in, the
director instructed Cosell to proceed with his now standard & customary
"Look, there's Uecker!" line.   Somehow, the guy in the gorilla outfit got
the word or the signal that Cosell had uttered his line, and he took the
gorilla's head off.

With a close-up for the whole nation to see, Cosell was speechless as we all
learned that it was Bob Uecker in the gorilla outfit.

This must have happened. I don't think I could have made it up right here &
now on the spot.

Joe.
From: jg10@prism.gatech.EDU (GILMORE,JOHN F)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)
Keywords: baseball
Date: 2 Oct 92 13:13:30 GMT
Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology


     We are running our AI baseball demo again this year to predict series
winners. Last year we picked the Braves in 7 over the Bucs and The Twins in
6. Hopefully we do as well this time around. 

Here's what I have so far:

Game 1. Smoltz vs Drabek
Game 2. Avery vs Wakefield
Game 3. Glavine vs Tomlin
Game 4. Smoltz vs ?
Game 5. Avery vs ?
Game 6. Glavine vs ?
Game 7. Smoltz vs ?

The Braves are going with a 3 man rotation for the NLCS. They have dropped the
sore-armed Pena and will used Pete Smith and Charles Liebrandt (ugh!) in 
relief roles.

Thanks

PS Our simulation predictions were presented at the 92 SABR conference. Drop
   me a note if you want a copy of the paper.

-- 
 -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
|                 John F. Gilmore                  |   INTERNET Address    |
|   GTRI-CSITL, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA  30332   | jg10@prism.gatech.edu |
 -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: 91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard)
Subject: Re: Morris: more fuel for this debate
Organization: Dept. of Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, ON
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1992 22:21:23 GMT

In <1992Oct6.214115.16107@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:

>In article <1992Oct6.144116.1656@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>>
>>Well, Jim Abbott, with 2.77 ERA (~1.3 Lower than Jack's) went 7 - 15! So, if
>>we assume that the PyT is a reasonable predictor, he doesn't look much worse
>>for the Angels than Abbott!

>Mike, I've said it before and I'll say it again.

>Random error.  When you are working with a sample set of size ~35,
>*no* statistics are going to be very precise.  Maybe if Jim Abbott
>gets the same ERA/run support next year, he will achieve a 8-14
>record.  Maybe he'll even get lucky and be 9-13.  And a 9-13 record is
>*much* better than a 7-19 record.  That's six fewer games that he has
>lost for his team!  (And we know that few players are worth even
>*close* to this much.)

And MAYBE the dog would have caught the rabbit if he hadn't stopped...
You cannot separate the individual from his situation.  Part of the 
individual IS his situation.  You might just as well tell us how well
Morris would have done with only one hand.  This is just as meaningful 
as giving Abbott Morris' "Run Support".   

Now we get to see if Morris can do the job - and if he does what stories
will you characters come up with then?

rm

-- 
roger maynard                    
91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca
From: mm42@prism.gatech.EDU (Mark Mitchell)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: BRAVES CLINCH
Date: 1 Oct 92 12:33:11 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: Ramblin' Wrecks from Georgia Tech

hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Bruce M Hasch) wrote:
}
}                      How about May 1991 (!).  I happened to be in Atlanta for
}an American Chemical Society conference, and took in a Braves game while I was
}there.  Went up to the ticket booth 20 minutes before the game, got a box seat
}fifteen rows behind the Astros dugout... 
}The attendance for the night was about 7,500.  And it was one of the most
}beautiful nights to see a ball game you could imagine...

I am little surprised by your anecdote, because even before they
began to show that they had a chance to win the division in '91
attendance for the Braves was *way* up.  (The average in the 
1st 2 months was about 50% more than '90.)  The reason attendance
had reached the abyssmal levels of '88-'90 (IMHO) is that Atlanta
fans had basically given up any hope of having a competitive team.
Winters came and went and the Braves management did nothing to
improve the team, except long-term farm system work that the average
fan really can't follow.  Then finally after the 1990 season with
the arrival of John Schuerholtz came the first significant moves
in years - he signed free agents like Sid Bream and Terry Pendleton,
dramatically improving the infield without giving away the strong
young pitchers.  The field itself and the concessions at the stadium
were also greatly improved in the offseason.

7500 in a mid-week game against Houston isn't great, but the Pirates
drew similar numbers in some mid-week games a few weeks ago.  Obviously
there *are* plenty of fans in Atlanta who only go to the ballpark
when the team is winning, but I think with the changes pre-1991
the early attendance figures showed that even a half-decent performance
by the team (say, 4th place) would have drawn a respectable 1.5 million, 
a little better than a 50% improvement over the previous year.

-- 
Mark Mitchell           Georgia Tech            mm42@prism.gatech.edu

    "I may be a scwewy wabbit, but I'm not going to Alcatwaz!"
Organization: Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
Date: Wednesday, 30 Sep 1992 13:04:23 PST
From: Thomas Hyer <IOR@SLACVM.SLAC.STANFORD.EDU>
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Better Than Runs II

Please, people, if you don't understand what I'm saying,
do me a favor -- assume it's you, not me.

The question I asked was:  (i) how many games is a given
number of runs worth, and (ii) can we use this information
to refine evaluation of individual players?

Gidi Avraham kindly provided me with the distribution of
runs scored per inning, from which I obtained:

  Margin              Probability
  ------              -----------
    0 (extra innings)   .107
+1 (or -1)              .102
+/- 2                   .089
+/- 3                   .073
+/- 4                   .057
+/- 5                   .042


  Thus we would expect 20.4% of all games to be decided
by one run in regulation.  (This differs from the 27.8%
Gidi gives because it does not include the extra-inning
games, and because of a slight downward systematic error
from averaging NL and AL statistics.)

  Now, how many wins are two extra runs worth?  First,
you change 10.2% of the games from outright losses to
outright wins.  Then you add half of the games you would
have lost by 2, which now go to extra innings, and half
the extra-inning games, which you now win outright.  Thus:

  Runs    Wins
  ----    ----
   1      .104
   2      .200
   3      .281
   4      .346
   5      .396
       .
       .
       .
  30ish   .500

That is, if a team was spotted three runs, it would win about
.781 of its games (against equal opposition; Sherri Nichols
and Dr. Dave should now go and look up `thought experiment').
Now, how can we isolate the contributions of players which
lead to scoring 1,2,3.. extra runs?

It seems intuitively clear that some things (e.g., steals)
help you score one run while others (e.g., walks) help you
score multiple runs; thus a measure (like OPI) of extra runs
manufactured will overestimate the importance of the latter
compared to the former.  (Not that walks aren't a great thing
to have, but I find it reasonable that their role in winning
games may be overestimated by 5%.)

If I think of anything further, I'll post it.  I would like
to hear feedback from people who understand the problem.


Tom "Only man ever to receive an apology from Gary Huckabay" Hyer
From: km@cs.pitt.edu (Ken Mitchum)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: attendance 9/22 (was: Re: If you thought last year was bad)
Date: 29 Sep 92 00:49:04 GMT
Reply-To: km@cs.pitt.edu (Ken Mitchum)
Distribution: usa
Organization: Univ. of Pittsburgh Computer Science

In article <Bv19vx.pK@mentor.cc.purdue.edu> poutsmaj@mace.cc.purdue.edu (unknown) writes:
>
>If I were the owner of the Pirates, I would pack up my team and head to some-
>place where a few more people were interested in my team.  It's obvious
>that most of Pittsburgh aren't....
>
>(No offense to those loyal Pirate fans in Pitt who have to live in a town
>that won't support the home team even when they win)

Game attendance is not the only measure of support. The Pirates supposedly
have one of the larger number of listeners to their radio networks,
especially considering the local population, and about 2/3 of the games
are on TV here. 

You have to consider both the local economy and other factors. It has
been ten years or so since most of the mills closed here, and the
unemployment figures don't show people who gave up several years ago
on finding a job. Also, it is very difficult to drive into town from
outlying areas to go to a game. There are no straight streets in this
town, and every street eventually encounters a river or a twisty hill.
What passes for expressways are 40 years old and can't be widened 
because of all the bridges and overpasses. 

If they actually built a baseball stadium here, things might be
different. If I hadn't paid good bucks for a seat right by third
base for the whole season, I would stay home and watch the games on TV.
There are about 10,000 good seats for baseball at 3RS. When I went
to my only game at Fenway a few years ago, I was amazed. 35,000
seats, but they all are great! 

 -Ken Mitchum
 km@cs.pitt.edu
From: rollins+@cs.cmu.edu (Gene Rollins)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Braves/Pirates Series
Date: 1 Oct 92 05:10:32 GMT
Organization: School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon

ESPN showed that Smoltz, Avery, and Glavine had ERAs about 2.7 during
June and July, and over 3.7 during August and September.  In the Sporting
News, I see that for the 4 weeks ending 9/21/92 these are the numbers:
            W-L  ERA    IP
  Glavine   1-3  6.05  19.1       Wakefield  3-0  2.45  33.0
  Smoltz    1-3  4.75  30.1       Drabek     4-1  3.82  37.2
  Avery     1-2  4.85  39.0       Walk       2-2  3.19  36.2
  Leibrandt 2-2  7.13  24.0       Tomlin     1-0  2.40  30.0
  P.Smith   2-0  2.73  26.1       Jackson    1-0  3.38  29.1

Last year, Atlanta's pitching was hot going down the stretch.  What
a difference a year makes.  The Pirates are over .700 after the all star
break this year.  Over the last 4 weeks they are 18-7, and the Braves are
15-11.

Over the last 4 weeks the top hitters look like this:
  Blauser    71 .352  Bonds     82 .439
  Pendelton 104 .308  VanSlyke 109 .330
  Berryhill  48 .292  Bell     109 .321
  Gant       79 .278  A.Cole    80 .288
Disappointments:
  Justice    79 .228  LaValliere 55 .236
(but Justice lead the Braves with 22 RBIs)

I hope the Braves are as over-confident as their fans.  The loss of Greg Olson
looms large.   Jeff King, who usually hits after Bonds, has 18 RBIs in the
past 4 weeks, second on the Pirates.  Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield had three
wild-pitches in his first major league start and none in his next ten starts.
The Braves won't have John Smiley to light up anymore.

Well, they play this game on the field.  Bring on the Braves.  
Bumper sticker in Atlanta two years ago:
  Go Braves, and take the Falcons with you.

Pirates in 5 over the Braves, and in 7 over the Blue Jays.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball