From: kamol@ipied.tu.ac.TH (Kamol Hengkietisak)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.thai
Subject: Bangkok Post Jan 10: Weekly mag roundup
Date: 11 Jan 1993 16:51:54 +1100
Organization: Mail/News gateway
NNTP-Posting-Host: munnari.oz.au

 
THE elected Chuan-led Government is a living proof that political 
development is a slow proc	m' depending on various controlling 
factors. However, while leaving the democratic process to follow 
its natural course, the Democrat-led coalition would do well to 
heed the threatening forces, especially during its transition 
period.
 
The three major factors the Chuan Government has to consider 
seriously for its own stability and survival are the military, the 
Opposition and the people, Khao Pises  weekly said.
 
Ever since the Black May crisis, the military has never been the 
same. It has been relatively dormant and apolitical because of the 
so-called people power which has installed the present 
administration.
 
Faced with political and social changes, the military is seeking 
to re-define or modernise its role in a fledgling democratic 
society. There is a popular call for it to limit itself to the 
affairs. There is less need for military might with the end of 
communists problems here and the Cold War worldwide, the weekly 
observed.
 
With less need for suppressive forces, the ranger army has been 
deployed in remote villages on development projects. The military 
initiative has won an applause, except for some conflicts with the 
villagers who opposed changes and developments in their regions.
 
With changes going on in once-hostile neighbouring countries and 
the global peace movement, the military is increasingly feeling 
the need to re-define its traditional symbol of power and 
once-untouchable status.
 
The once-tense border because of the warring Khmer factions is 
gradually and steadily becoming a trade zone in accordance with 
the government policy.
 
There are no longer imminent threats from Cambodia, Laos and 
Vietnam. Cam Ranh Bay does not pose an outside threat any more. 
The United States has withdrawn its naval forces from the Subic 
Bay in the Philippines.
 
But amid the changes here and abroad, the military is still a 
force to be reckoned with, Khao Pises  noted.
 
As recently as February 1991 the junta-led military leaders ousted 
the elected Chatichai government and handpicked a cabinet to 
govern the country under its close supervision.
 
Had it not been because of the bloody May, the NPKC leaders would 
still be reigning supreme in Thailand.
 
However, the military might is far from over. They may have 
disappeared from the scene, but history has proved that their 
return to power is just a matter of time.
 
There are no guarantees that the regional and global crises will 
not recur, Khao Pises  commented.
 
The East-West military tensions have gone with peace initiatives, 
but the conflicts could erupt again, considering the latest global 
developments.
 
While China is always to be taken seriously in terms of its 
military might and weapon modernisation, Japan has moved more and 
more into the military reinforcement and arms industry, the daily 
noted.
 
Besides expanding its economic potential, China is deeply 
interested in strengthening its strategic zone, as seen from its 
close ties with Burma to gain access to the Mandalay Bay, and its 
claim of the controversial Spratley Islands.
 
Japan's involvement in the Indochina regions is motivated by its 
interests in large-scale business investments there.
 
Besides, Japan is feeling the need to slowly reinstate its 
once-renowned military might, although the percentage of the 
budget alotted for the defence ministry may appear relatively 
small in the eyes of the superpowers.
 
In point of fact, the Thai military has good reasons to be wary of 
precarious global and, particularly, regional situations, Khao 
Pises  observed.
 
With the end of the Cold War, either of the superpowers still 
feels it has leverage over the other. Thus, mutual suspicion 
persists.
 
While the Cambodian affairs are far from settled, the internal 
conflicts in Burma could at any time spill over across the 
2000-kilometre long Thai-Burma border.
 
All in good time the Thai military can emerge to the limelight 
under the pretext of national security and sovereignty.
 
It is not enough for the Chuan-led government to adopt an 
optimistic view of on-going regional and global developments.
 
The Government's worth and effectiveness will be known from the 
way it deals with national crises. It must be willing to adapt 
itself to the modern situation and do away with impractical and 
obsolete administrative structures.
 
The elected administration will always be closely watched by the 
military which is waiting for the right moment to step in and 
claim the national leadership.
 
Meanwhile, the Opposition has been watching each move the 
Government makes. As a matter of fact, the Government-Opposition 
confrontation was preluded during the election campaign with 
politicians being classified as "angels" and "devils."
 
Those politicians with ties to former NPKC leaders were branded as 
"devils," while those opposing the military's iron-fisted rule 
were called "angels."
 
With a strong army of opposition MPs, the five-party coalition, 
with less than 50 votes over its counterpart, lacks a clear 
mandate to run the country.
 
Worse for the Government, the senators, who have come under attack 
over the size and composition, tend to ally themselves with the 
Opposition.
 
In the face of two opposing forces, the Government is making slow 
progress in its move to amend laws, to facelift the administrative 
mechanisms and to introduce new government structures.
 
Unless the confrontation between the Government and the Opposition 
gives way to a cooperative effort, little can be done to implement 
refors. What makes the matter even worse are the intra-government 
conflicts, which not only destabilise the coalition but also 
invite attacks or intervention, Khao Pises  noted.
 
The weekly pointed out that some coalition parties, especially the 
New Aspiration Party, are not well organised internally, just like 
Palang Dharma Party in the past.
 
Parties with in-fightings and conflicts poses a big problem for 
the coalition Government. Such parties often lead to Cabinet 
reshuffles. The more the reshuffles, the more shaky the Government 
and the fewer the options for the Premier, observed Khao Pises.
 
The weekly added that another force to be reckoned with in Thai 
politics is the so-called people power.
 
Over the past 10 years the people have been instrumental to 
changes in the government systems and the central administration.
 
The people have been increasingly dissatisfied with past 
Government performances as well as the institutional mechanisms 
which have prove ineffective in solving national problems and in 
safeguarding lives and properties.
 
Both provincial and central administrations have been blamed for 
poor or insufficient public utilities, especially water and 
electricity.
 
Khao Pises  also said the people have demanded that serious action 
be taken to stop the deteriorating environments nationwide.
 
With the centralised administrative system, groups after groups 
have converged at the Government House to voice their plights when 
all their previous struggles were in vain. MPs' influences and 
concerns have dwindled over the years.
 
As much as 80 per cent of the House debates have been on 
agriculture-related issues -- from long-neglected drought to 
unheeded urgency of irrigation.
 
Khao Pises  pointed out that the village development budget 
allocated to each MP is far from enough.
 
MPs have often turned such crises into political issues, attacking 
the Government's negligence and lack of concern for the country 
people.
 
Be it is a neglect by the Government or the slow bureaucratic 
process, the people have lost hope in the established institution. 
They have unlawfully resorted to road blockades, setting 
government buildings on fire, seizing government agencies, and 
staging rallies at the Government House to dramatise their 
unheeded plights, the weekly said.
 
Khao Pises  suggested that the Government reconsider the status 
quo structure which has proved to be ineffective, leaving the 
majority of the people unheeded and uncared for. If centralisation 
does not work, why not adopt a decentralised system, now that the 
measures and directions have been spelt out in the Government's 
policy statement.
 
For the good of the country, the administrative power should be 
decentralised in all sectors -- agriculture, industry, education, 
public health, local government, etc, the weekly suggested.
 
Academics and economists have agreed that under the centralised 
system a host of problems arise, and an effective administration 
will be impossible.
 
Of course, a proper time frame and variable factors must be taken 
into consideration to ensure a successful launch of the new 
desirable system, Khao Pises  said.
 
The weekly also noted the other two forces that could affect or 
obstruct the Government's performance -- the military and the 
Opposition.
 
In the process of adapting to the changes here and elsewhere, the 
seemingly dormant military surely keeps an eye on the elected 
Government, awaiting an opportunity to restore its Black 
May-shattered image and to once again become part and parcel of 
politics, noted Khao Pises.
 
The Opposition power can never be underestimated. While demanding 
that their agenda be heeded in the parliament, they are capable of 
instigating massive crowds in their constituencies to rally almost 
at in the capital, especially at the Government House, to 
forcefully press for actions to their satisfactions.
 
The Government must be mindful of the fact that at any time it can 
be destabilised by the Opposition which no doubt has ambitions to 
run the country themselves, observed the weekly.
 
Khao Pises  suggested that the Government learn from the May 
crisis when hundreds of thousands converged in the capital in a 
democratic process which turned into a national tragedy.
 
Learn from experience. Avoid untoward eventualities. Do away with 
undesirable elements in the administrative structures. Set a 
proper time frame and priorities for policy implementations. Take 
the military and the Opposition seriously yet tactically.
 
Above all, the Chuan-led Government must do whatever it takes 
politically and in accordance with the democratic process to 
guarantee an invasion-free Government House in the year 1993, 
commented Khao Pises.
 
Footnote:
BY 1993, the Court is expected to hand down verdicts on cases 
against politicians whose assets were confiscated by orders of the 
Assets Examining Committee.
 
The public prosecutors have cited a Supreme Court verdict No 
1261/1977 between Mrs Pratiab Cholsap, mother-in-law of Thailand's 
late strongman, Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat, and the Revenue 
Department to support its case. The court ruled that a sum of 
18,360,000 baht, which De Gremont Company claimed to have given to 
Mrs Pratiab to be used for "merit-making" purposes, had actually 
been paid to her as a result of the company's winning a bid to lay 
the multi-million baht water pipeline system in Bangkok.
 
The Supreme Court agreed with the then property investigating 
committee's decision that the property must belong to the state.
 
WHEN people talked about the construction of the new Supreme 
Command headquarters, one might remember the Army's order to buy a 
number of light tanks at a time when a retired officer was big 
boss at the Army.
 
According to Khao Thai the crack in the armour plating of the tank 
caused by the firing of the tank's 105-mm gun during routine 
training exercises.
 
The recoil of the cannon caused the armour to crack. This means 
that the cannon cannot be fired from this light tank because it 
will destroy its armour.
 
This report is expected to be revealed this year.
 
NATIONAL security in the area around Hill 491 will continue to be 
an important issue in the future as long as it involves interest 
worth more than one billion to 10 billion baht to be shared by 
several groups including the Mons and Karens, Khao Thai  weekly 
said.
 
A recent announcement by the French Company Total S.A. which 
obtained two blocks 240 km southwest of Rangoon to explore oil 
that the surveys indicate there could be two-three trillion cubic 
feet of gas, has prompted all parties to keep a close watch in the 
area.
 
Total S.A. estimates the cost of investment for the whole project 
as US$800-1,000 million.
 
Four oil drilling platforms are to be set up and a pipeline be 
laid to Tavoy before connecting into Thailand.
 
A company source said Thai companies are eager to build a pipeline 
into Thailand as those reserves would be more than Burma could 
currently absorb.
 
But the project, which would go straight through jungle controlled 
by Karen rebels is costly and risky.
 
Petroleum Authority of Thailand is reportedly to invest some 20 
per cent on a joint venture with the Total.
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