From: hooker@aristotle.ils.nwu.edu (Bob Hooker)
Subject: Re: Keys to the election
Organization: ILS
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 1992 18:34:59 GMT

In article <4389@news.duke.edu>, eyc@acpub.duke.edu (EMIL CHUCK) writes:


> 
> 2) Key 2: contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent party
> nomination.
> 	YES (sorry Pat Buchanan supporters)
>
There was no serious challenge in Buchanan,  but Buchanan was a problem and
Bush has had to face a large part of his own party ask that he step down. 
Clearly there has been a challenge to Bush from the inside of the party.
???


 

> 5) Key 5: short-term economy. The economy is not in recession suring the
> election campaign.
> 	??? (Though the Democrats will say NO and the Republicans YES)
Economists will say no Recession,  but with wages and Employment either
sitting still or dropping most Americans will say there is NO


> 
> 8) Key 8: social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the
> term.

Right to life vs. Pro Choice across America,  crime rates rising across the
counry>  Maybe a NO  (would states not being able to pay bills be unrest)

> 9) Key 9: scandal. The incumbent administration is untainted by major
> scandal.
????  S&L and Iraq-gate.  Iran-Contra trials before the electon, could go
anyway.
 
> 10) Key 10: foreign/military failure. The incumbent administration
> suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
> 	YES (though the Democrats are trying to turn this key)
Unless Bosnia blows up,

> 
> 11) Key 11: foreign/military success. The incumbent administration
> achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
> 	YES
Ofcourse.

> 
> 12) Key 12: incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is
> charismatic or a national hero.
> 	NO
> 
> 13) Key 13: challenger charisma. The challenging-party candidate is not
> charismatic or a national hero.
> 	YES	(But the image that the Democrats are
> trying to pin should try to turn this key too.)
> 
> 
> When 6 or more statements are negative, the party in power loses. This
> test is accurate for every Presidential election from 1860 to 1988.
> 
> TOTAL YES = 7
> TOTAL NO  = 4
> TOTAL ??? = 2
> 

Total Yes=   4
Total No     5
Total ???=   4


Question marks can't be good for Bush,  the polls don't look good either. 
I have heard estimates on NPR from inside the Republicans that Quayle cost
Bush around 3% in 1988-- Bosnia makes Bush look weak and gives Clinton a
chance to hawk--we never saw pictures from Kuwait on the cover of Newsweek
and Time.

All in all it seems it would be Clinton's electon to lose right now,  In an
electon year where things have changed so often only one thing has remained
constant;  Bush's declining popularity.  If you exclude the Iraq war boost,
Bush's popularity has not gone up in two years.  

I count 15 months in Bush's 4 years so far where his approvial ratting has
gone up,  almost all in the first two years and 23 months going down.  His 
ratting is 31%,  he need to get around 51% to win (unless Clinton self
destructs)  that is 20% rise in 2.5 months.  He rose about 25 points in the
polls the two months before the war.  So to win he has to have an increase
about equal to the boost he got from the Gulf War.  Where the hell is that
coming from?  nowhere-  so he has to win on less the 50%, that means
destoying Clinton.

Clinton has alot of winning stratagies at this point.  He can aford to stay
on the high road until Sept,  he can go negative today,  he could
concentrate on some states or others.  Clinton can try to defend his gaoins
in California and the Mid West and win in these states by solid number in
Nov.  he could also attack in more of Bush country--namely Texas.  

Bush has only one stratgey--Save Texas, save the south,  undermine Clinton.
 Bush has to go for Clinton on the character issue,  he has no other line
of attack.But he has used this 4 years ago and Clinton can see it coming.

Right now we are in a face off,  Bush doesn't want to attack first, 
Clinton has no reason to risk an attack.  Bush is trying to draw Clinton
into a negative battle but it is not working.  Time is on CLinton's side in
this game so Bush has to attack sooner or later.

An attack will put Bush at risk,  if Clinton can position right the press
won't stop talking about it for a week,  that is 1/8 of the time left till
the election.  

Looks bad for Bush.





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