From: vinsight@netcom.com (Chan T. Vninsight)
Subject: Analysis Of Hanoi's Mixed Signals
Originator: daemon@media.mit.edu
Reply-To: vinsight@netcom.com
Organization: N/A
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 1992 07:49:15 GMT


ANALYSIS OF HANOI'S MIXED SIGNALS
(Vietnam Insight January 1992)

Hanoi has recently released scores of well-known political prisoners,
apparently in an effort to improve its human rights image.

Among those freed are: poet Nguyen Chi Thien who has been imprisoned
throughout his life for speaking out against communist oppression, Father
Le Thanh Que arrested in 1980 for supporting a dissident movement,
writer Duong Thu Huong who was detained last April for her views
against the system, anti-communist writer Doan Quoc Sy who has been
jailed since 1975, and the leader of a Vietnamese resistance
organization, Mr. Vo Dai Ton, also a lieutenant-colonel of the former
South Vietnamese government, who fled to Australia in 1975 and was
captured on his way back to Vietnam ten years ago.

But at the same time, in a contrasting move, Hanoi sentenced Dr. Nguyen
Dan Que on November 29, 1991 to 20 years imprisonment for peacefully and
openly calling for democracy in Vietnam.

While announcing the release of remaining South Vietnamese prisoners and
allowing the Red Cross to visit some "re-education camps" for the first
time, Hanoi declined to comment on how many political prisoners are
incarcerated, citing Vietnam's internal affairs. The regime has
reportedly imprisoned tens of thousands of pro-democracy activists
since 1989 in a massive crackdown against peaceful dissidents out of
paranoia following Communism's collapse in Eastern Europe.

Hanoi's mixed messages show clearly that the regime is trapped in a
Catch-22 in which it is pressured to project a gentler image to court
both foreign and internal support while making sure all threats to its
monopolistic rule are eliminated.

These releases do not, however, reflect any changes in the regime's
nature. Hanoi has not tried to hide its steadfast support of socialism,
nor its hatred of alternative systems.  In fact, the fear generated from
the death of the communist empire in the Soviet Union has led to an even
more stubborn attitude from Hanoi. Throughout the regime's official
papers and speeches recently, especially those targeting the domestic
audience, its ideological tongue has only gotten sharper and the
condemnation of "imperialist reactionary forces" only harsher.

Like its former Soviet counterpart, Vietnam's Communist rulers are
forced to walk the thin rope between reforming the ailing communist
system and combating the democratic forces unleashed by its reform 
process. This dilemma has led to the fall of the Soviet empire and the
demise of the master of these balancing acts - Mikhail Gorbachev.
But the Hanoi leadership is still convinced Vietnam's situation is
different and that they are in total control.

Whatever Hanoi's conviction is, its control is apparently slipping. The
most notable sign of this slippage is the wave of dissent among
intellectuals and the media.

Recently, a book by Bao Ninh titled "The Prize of Love," which crosses
the limit of "political correctness" to question the meaning of the
"liberation war" has not only made it to the bookstores and sold out,
but was also named one of the year's three best novels by the Vietnamese
Writers Association!

Until this, no book or even talk about the true meaning of the war was
tolerated by Vietnamese communist authorities.

An early example of postwar dissent among intellectuals was a 1985 short
story by Phung Ba Loc called "That Night, What a Night." It tells the
story of a poor village that is taxed and mismanaged by Communist Party
authorities almost to the point of starvation. An old woman in the
village finally protests: "Oh government, oh party. Do you know the
people are suffering?" The author initially had to flee his home
province to escape the wrath of authorities, according to Vietnamese
writers.

The halo given to the communist revolution and the wars waged against
free South Vietnam and its neighboring countries began giving way to the
bitter truth: the deadly consequence and disastrous effects they brought
upon the people and the country.

Hanoi's "victorious past" is now being questioned by the most faithful
of communists. The fact that truth-telling books such as Bao Ninh's made
it to the public indicates two things: some degree of tolerance is at
work solely to vent popular resentment and create a liberal image; it
also demonstrates the out-of-control situation where the truth and the
courage to tell the truth can no longer forced back into the dark.

The growing disillusionment of party members poses a political problem
for the regime. The Hanoi leadership, while hardening their crackdown on
dissidents, has been cunningly moving to court intellectuals.

Since August, Do Muoi, the party's incumbent General Secretary and
former discipliner, has organized three meetings in Hanoi, one in Saigon
and one in Da Nang, with several groups of scientists, intellectuals and
artists, including those who have openly criticized the system such as
Professor Phan Dinh Dieu and Dr. Nguyen Khac Vien. Despite his promise
of "being open to all suggestions and disagreements...," views different
from the Marxist line have never been taken into consideration.

Similar superficial moves were made prior to the Seventh Party Congress
when opinions and suggestions were invited only to be conveniently
ignored. In a move to appear reformist, Hanoi appointed a number of
intellectuals to figurehead positions without real authority; old faces
remain the majority in the power structure.

Nevertheless, Vietnamese intellectuals have taken advantage of these
rare opportunities to voice their conviction that until Vietnam has a
proper political system, "human rights", "democracy," "fairness," and
"happiness" are all meaningless words.

It is critical not to mistake Hanoi's forced concessions for true
willingness to change. Hanoi's intentions to maintain its totalitarian
rule are clear. Only under pressure, whether it is from the world
community, popular resistance or the party members, would the Vietnamese
Communist leadership submit to positive changes for the Vietnamese
people.
-- 
Vietnam Insight (vinsight@netcom.com)
Chan Tran, editor