From: s9874194@deimos.ucc.umass.edu (s9874194, YANG, Changqing)
Subject: Independence or Unification?
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 02:23:00 GMT

In article <1992Sep13.205123.10657@zip.eecs.umich.edu>, cyc@quip.eecs.umich.edu (Yi-Chieh Chang) writes...
>>CCP is so eager to take over Taiwan and has the military might to do it
>>(unless you are intentionally blind not to see it). When they are
>>invited by those TIers, they would be very happy. This is the last thing
>>most of us would like to see. I suspect some of Tiers are just CCP
>>spies.
>>
> 
>If so, the pro-unificationers will be much qualified to be CCP spies.
>If CCP can easily take over Taiwan without noticable resists, will CCP wait
>for so long ?  If CCP is so eager to take over Taiwan, what makes CCP wait
>and hesitate not to do so for over 40 years ?
> 
>Yi-Chieh
========================================================================

Mr. Chang,

	Your question brought up one thought in my mind that I have long
been waiting to bring out.

	There are a lot of people in this world really believe that
people should have their rights to determine their own furture. Even if
some people decide to jump out from a cliff, no body was supposed to stop
them. Well in my ideal world, in my principle it might be all right
too. After all, Jesus Christ sacrificed himself for the sin of human
being in stead of cursing and fighting human beings (if you believe
what the Bible says).

	But is that the case of a real society? Not to mention
that people in Northern Ireland never could determine their
independence, not to mention that Lincoln never let Southerners
vote, not to mention the people in Puerto Rico had never a chance
for referendum. Just look at the most favored example of the former
USSR.

	On the March of 1991, a referndum was conducted in the 
former USSR. More than 85% of the people preferred to keep their
Union. However, by the end of the year, when the leaders from
Russia, Ukrain and Belorussia decided to kill the Union, no body
did consulted the referendum. Well, you may say that after the coup,
things would have changed and people might re-think about the 
referendum. All right, suppose so. Suppose by the end of the
1991, 85% of the people in USSR preferred the splitting of the
country. Now, one and half years later, several surveys/polls have
indicated that more than 60% of the people there were strongly
nostalgic to the old Soviet Union. So, what should we do?
Change the map again? Bring back the old world order?

	Polls, referendums are good things and some times
can be used to indicate people's feeling, emotion and
degree of satisfaction/dissatisfaction. But the so-called
people's power, self-determination is realy good on the 
papers of politicians but rearly can be seen in real life, especially
when you are talking about the independence of a nation or
the unification of a country.

	Whether a country can be hold together, to my under-
standing of today's world, realy depends on two things:
WILL AND POWER of a particular leadership. It sounds very
bloody but sadly, that is the truth of today's world and I
am pessimistic that I do not think it will change in any short
future. 

	A. Lincoln did have the will and the power so that
the America is still the United States today. No. 10 Downing
Street had the will and power so that a tiny Falkland Island
is still the territory of the United Kingdom even it is thousands
mile away from London. Gorbachov did have the power but lack the
will so that Soviet Union became a history......

	To my point of view, Beijing does have the power (the political
power, the military power as well as the overall economic
strength) and the will to keep China a united country. If Beijing 
exercise its muscle, it would be able to "liberate" Taiwan. At least, 
this is my understanding. Now, your question was why Beijing has
not do it? I believe that Beijing is looking for two things:
money and territory. If it can get both, it would well keep the
well-being of the people in Taiwan. If things go sour, Beijing
endangers lose the territory (and eventually lose the money), 
then no body can guarantee that Beijing will not exercise its muscle
to keep the territory and to hope getting money back.
Should that happen, then the well-being of the people in Taiwan
would not be guaranteed. Obviously, no body wants to see that
happen. I do not think Beijing wants that happen either since
it needs an enviroment for its economic development. Simply
speaking, if it can survive without fight, it will try.

	One final comment, I like to see that China can eventually
be peacfully united. But I have to admit that the unification
of China is much more difficult than that of Korea and Germeny.
In the other two cases, the powerful sides was/is rich. But in
the case of China, the powerful side is relatively poor while the
rich side is almost powerless. That put a lot of balancing
force on each side. Should mainland become more economicly
developeded in the near future the unification will be much more
easier. On the other hand, if huge scale chaos happens in Mainland
like cultural revolution, or even civil unrest, then Taiwan
independence will become inevitable. Taiwan independence or
Unification will very heavily depends on the development in Beijing
in the coming several years, especially when Mr. Deng dies.

c.q.