From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Subject: Re: LV recommedations requested...
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 02:13:30 GMT

In article <1992Nov9.201259.644@fibers> mbuck@fibers (Michael D. Buck) writes:
>In article <JJ.92Nov6084829@presto.slc.mentorg.com>, jj@slc.mentorg.com (Jeff Jennings) writes:
>>>
>>>A question on strategy adj... how are they ranked in order of importance
>>>for the first 12 or so... (I remeber reading some time back that the
>>>first 12 give you about 90% of the advantage.)
>> 
>> 
>> Insure, correlation 0.76, gain 141.16
>> Hit 16 v X, correlation -0.55, gain 53.12
>> Hit 15 v X, correlation -0.76, gain 36.06
>> Split X,X v 6, correlation 0.93, gain 25.04
>> Split X,X v 5, correlation 0.96, gain 24.04
>
>I hadn't realized that splitting XX was so large a part of the profitability of
>counting!

Preliminary simulation results indicate that it costs close to 20%
of overall profit if you fail to split 10's.

>I haven't yet actually split XX, partly due to not having had
>enough of a plus count to warrant it, and partly because of Pit Critter
>Paranoia.

You have almost certainly had a count high enough to warrent it,
at least if you play single or double deck.

>I know that BJ dealers and pit critters often bemoan players they've
>had at their tables earlier in the day who split XX.  I have assumed
>that they do this since they want to appear sympathetic (during
>typical dealer/player banter) to the typical BJ player, who hates
>to be at a table with a player who splits XX.  But, I've always
>believed that dealers and pit critters know _very well_ that
>splitting XX is a very easy way to spot a counter.

Not that many dealers realize that it can be a good play.

Because it's worth 20% of your income, I think you just have to
forget about the critters and just do it.  Raise your bet slightly
in some negative counts to throw them off - it will be much less
costly and much more convincing!

>Is this actually true?  If so, how do rec.gamblers handle XX vs 6
>with an astronomical true count?

Split 'em!  And resplit 'em!  The only exception is if you think it
might cost you a round.  (Or maybe if you are currently in a
locally optimal number spots in action and you don't want to scare
away any players.)

>Are you forced to give up the
>advantage you've gotten from counting by making some kind of cover
>play/bet to throw off the pit critter?  Remember the mild commotion
>that happens at the table when you split XX.  The dealer will quiz
>you as to whether you _really_ want to do that.  The other players
>will moan and whine about it.  The pit _will_ notice it.  How can a
>counter make effective use of this play while not shouting to the
>pit of his/her presence?

Sometimes nothing at all happens: the dealer silently does his job,
and the other players hardly notice.  Granted, more often there is a
commotion.  Plenty of stupid gamblers make this play, so just try
to seem like a stupid gambler.  Say something like "I saw a European
in Monte Carlo do this, so I thought I'd give it a try..."  Or how
about "don't lecture me, if I were smart I wouldn't play this game
at all, just deal the bloody cards!"

-- 
Michael Hall            \ Reno's safest bet.
NASA Ames Research Center\ John Ascuaga's Nugget
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \ - billboard in San Francisco