From: genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Mattingly discussion, take 2.
Date: 18 Dec 92 19:34:58 GMT
Organization: Department of Industrial Engineering

Thus spake akamholz@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu (Andrew E Kamholz):
>
>Have you guys who continually knock Mattingly's defensive skills SEEN
>HIM PLAY? 

Yes.  

>I have.

Neat.  Have you seen any other first basemen?  How many games?  Better yet, 
have you checked out how many plays Mattingly does/doesn't make, versus how
many these other guys do/don't?

>The only guy in the league who comes close to his
>ability is Mark McGwire, who I have also seen play. (I drove cross country
>and saw several games at each of several parks). Wally Joyner is next,
>followed by Kent Hrbek. I don't know what you're considering in your
>formula for defensive ability, but he is, by a long shot, the best.

We're considering what fraction of batted balls Mattingly turns into outs.
On the other hand, I have *no* idea what you are considering?  Style?  Grace?
Rugged good looks?  Moustache?

>When I get a chance, I will post Mattingly's numbers on hitting with men
>on base. Elias has it. He is incredible- way above average. 

Don't bother.  The same people who use real live defensive stats to evaluate
players also tend to think that batting average with RISP is not much more
useful that hat size and date of birth in evaluating players, since it's 
just noise in the overall batting levels.  (Of course, most of us also find
*any* batting average to be mostly irrelevant; OBP and SLG tell you more.)

For what it's worth, here are some 1991 Defensive Average numbers for AL
first basemen.  The numbers are AGDA ( = fraction of balls hit to first base
zone that were successfully converted into outs), AGO/2B (how many balls seen 
between doubles allowed), AGO/3B (same for triples), and DP% (fraction of 
ground balls in DP situations that were successfully converted into DPs).

	Player		AGDA	AGO/2B	AGO/3B	 DP%

	McGwire		.743	 34.0	 152.8	 7.1%
	Olerud		.733	 22.8	 251.2	 5.7%
	O'Brien		.699	 38.4	 115.2	 7.5%
	Milligan	.699	 31.9	 223.1	 5.7%
	Quintana	.696	 24.0	 132.1	12.3%
	Pasqua		.682	 22.9	 114.3	 6.9% (only 83 games, though)
	LEAGUE AVG	.662	 21.7	 198.5	 8.6%
	Mattingly	.660	 23.0	 253.0	20.8%
	Fielder		.653	 14.0	 119.4   8.5%
	Stubbs		.643	 20.9	  76.7	12.7%
	Joyner		.642	 17.3	 130.0	12.7%
	Palmeiro	.637			 7.6%
	Hrbek		.631			14.1%
	Benzinger	.629			 6.8%

Mattingly's strengths: great at picking bad throws, the best at starting
double plays.  But those two things together are not enough to make up for
the difference in range between Mattingly and somebody like McGwire.  That
difference is about 28 extra opposition hits in a full season, with 2 or 3
of those going for extra bases.  The double play advantage, on the other
hand, is about 13 or 14 extra double plays in a full season.  The throw-
fielding advantage is tiny; McGwire's real good at that, too.

If Maas is missing balls that Mattingly would have had, it's because Maas
has way below average range, not because Mattingly's is anything special.

-- 
       David Tate        |"Out of the dugout endlessly swinging,
 dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu | Out of the manager's throat, the sound fundamentals,
 Prof. of Story Problems | Out of the six-month season..."            
 Member ORSA, TIMS, SABR | 	Walt "Lefty" Whitman
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball