Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy

I too am a big (and successful :-) fan of Patton's.  I think I tried to do
what he has done back in 1984 and it was the foundatoin for my early
success.  Back in 1984 I was able to see the total value of a Claudel
Washington and Ken Landreaux and Keith Moreland, none of whom put up
stats great enough to be all-stars, but were consistently under-valued
in our early (by-the-book) Rotisserie drafts.

When Patton came out with this formal study and formula's, I knew that
I had a fundamental understanding of what he was trying to do, and that
his approach was a winning one.

I also enjoy his humorous style of writting.  If you can't understand
his method from reading the book, then I don't think that any explanations
that I would be able to give would do any better.  Patton is a professional
writer/comminicator, whereas I am a computer programmer.  You don't want
to read for understanding what I write :-)

Now, on to the topic of Patton dollars and Fred McGriff!  In a separate
post I will request someone to post the 1992 Patton formulas.  If you
have them and can take the time to post them, I would sure appreciate it.

>Wing Lee writes:
>I also have problems understanding Patton's methods.  In the March 1993
>issue of Fantasy Baseball Magazine, Patton writes:
> 
>   "I look at [Fred] McGriff's five-year salary scan -- $29, $31,
>    $35, $31 and $40 -- and some little voice, be it inspired or
>    foolish, tells me this year he's going to earn $42.  That's the
>    key.  The stats are really irrelevant.  But the software [Patton $
>    On Disk], supplies the stats, based on what it knows about
>    McGriff in the past, on the number of at bats he is going to
>    have in 1993 (which I decide), and on the 1993 N.L. hitters formulas
>    that I've already programmed it with".

Going into my 1992 draft, I looked at McGriff's history of "earning"
29, 31, 35 and 31 and decided that I could not let him go for under 30,
and that (due to a shortage of power available in the draft and on my
team) I'd go as high as 40 for him.  I estimated that he would actually
go for 42.  He came up 4th in the draft (I knew he would come up early,
and that was factored into my guess that he would go for 42), and I got
him for 38, and was VERY happy.  (Oh yes, he already had 4 homers by the
time we drafted (1st saturday after opening day), so that was part of
the price inflation that I exptected, but also part of my joy).

I'd like to see the formula's for 1992 that say McGriff earned 40.  This
seems high to me.  Using the 1991 formula on the 1992 stats says he
earned 35.  Here are the 1991 formulas:

HR/4.5
RBI/16.8
SB/5.8
((1236+AB) / (4700+H) - .263) / .0012

And here are the top earners based on this:

                                                   Patton  Patton
                      Avg   AB   H    HR  RBI   SB Points  $$$$$$

  1        BONDS,B  0.311  473  147   34  103   39  24.04  49.17
  2      GRISSOM,M  0.276  653  180   14   66   78  21.76  44.51
  3    SHEFFIELD,G  0.330  557  184   33  100    5  20.08  41.07
  4     LANKFORD,R  0.293  598  175   20   86   42  19.58  40.05
  5     SANDBERG,R  0.304  612  186   26   87   17  17.80  36.41
  6      MCGRIFF,F  0.286  531  152   35  104    8  17.30  35.39
  7       WALKER,L  0.301  528  159   23   93   18  16.94  34.66
  8    PENDLETON,T  0.311  640  199   21  105    5  16.55  33.86
  9    VAN_SLYKE,A  0.324  614  199   14   89   12  16.35  33.44
 10      ROBERTS,B  0.323  532  172    4   45   44  16.25  33.24 



>The stats Patton's software projects, based on the expected 1993 value,
>for Fred McGriff are .302 Avg, 52 HR, 129 RBI, 4 SB.

These stats seem pretty out of line, obviously.  Why one would project
anyone to hit 52 HR's is beyond me.  Even the 129 RBI's is too high.  He
just hasn't done that, and I think the Padres lineup will not be as
strong with the loss of Fernandez and a return-to-earth of Sheffield.
You don't have to agree with my reasons, as long as you agree that it 
would not be wise to bet too much money on a prediction of McGriff hitting
52 HR's and pulling in 129 RBIs.

IF he did indeed "earn" 40 in 1992, then a trend of 29, 31, 35, 31 and 40
would lead me to project closer to earning 40 in 1993 than a trend
of 29, 31, 35, 31, and 35.  I still don't think it reasonable to project
him to IMPROVE on 1992.  It is being as ambitious as I like to be to
start at him maintaining his 1992 performance.

Wrap Up:  Given his history since 1988, I feel confident that he will
earn between 30 and 40, baring injury.  I have him at 38.  Should I keep
him?  Factors:

	- Can he earn it?
        - Can I draft what McGriff can earn for less?

My answers are: Yes he can earn it, and will likely be + or - 5.  No way I
can draft anything close this earning potential for 38.  Kevin Mitchell
will go for 35-40 and be much more risky.


Please, let's keep this thread going.  This is great stuff!

Lynch "MOB", 1992 Silicon Gulch Rotiserrie League Champion!