From: tran@PEORA.SDC.CCUR.COM (Nhan Tran)
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.seasia-l
Subject: NEWS/VN: Spratlys faceoff
Date: 6 Oct 92 14:22:55 GMT
Comments: Gated by NETNEWS@AUVM.AMERICAN.EDU

10/04

Spratlys Faceoff

Copyright, 1992. The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

By DENIS D. GRAY
 Associated Press Writer
   HANOI, Vietnam (AP) -- Vietnam wants to shift its society to making money
rather than wars, but its leaders fear a confrontation may be looming with its
old enemy -- China. This time over pinpricks in a map of the South China Sea.
   Fear, hatred and suspicion of China is ingrained in the Vietnamese psyche,
given 2,000 years of invasions and subjugations by its giant northern neighbor.
Thus even a seemingly minor squabble sets off loud alarms and deep anxieties.
   The Vietnamese are fearful of China's moves in the Spratlys, an archipelago
of once mostly ignored islets and atolls.
   The tiny outcroppings -- about 100 or so -- are mostly uninhabited and most
spend at least some of the time underwater. But they straddle vital sea lanes
and rich fishing grounds, and energy companies think they also may lie over
large oil and natural gas fields.
   China, Vietnam and Taiwan claim all of the chain, which stretches from 250
miles east of southern Vietnam to about 100 miles north of Borneo. Malaysia,
the Philippines and Brunei claim parts. All but Brunei have soldiers on some
atolls, and the Chinese and Vietnamese have clashed over the Spratlys twice
in 18 years.
   In February, China enacted a law proclaiming the Spratlys as Chinese
territory and reserving the right to use military force to protect its claim.
   In May, Beijing awarded an offshore oil and gas exploration contract to an
American company, Crestone Energy Corp., in an area claimed by Vietnam. Also
that month, a military clash was reported along the Sino-Vietnamese border.
   Public statements by the governments involved and other nations in the
region stress that disputes must be solved through negotiations and are
couched in polite diplomatic language.
   But privately, Hanoi officials tell foreign journalists and academics they
think China plans to lure Vietnam into a war. They describe Beijing's policies
as "two-faced" and "typically bellicose."
   Vietnam appears to be in no mood for another war or even sinking resources
into the military. It is still counting the costs of having fought the French,
Americans and Chinese as well as the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia over the past half
century.
   Emphasis is being placed on rapid economic development. "Attract foreign
dollars" rather than "fight foreign foes" is the slogan of the day.
   Struggling with its economic woes, Vietnam also feels isolated.
   It has lost its prime backer, the former Soviet Union, and it has no
relations with the United States. Its relations with non-communist Southeast
Asia have only just begun to warm. And while it still has strong infantry
forces, its navy and air forces are dwarfed by China's.
   "The Vietnamese see China as exploiting them when they are at their weakest,
showing them what China will do if they don't toe their line in the future,"
Carl Thayer, a Vietnam expert at Australian National University in Canberra,
said in a telephone interview.
   Vietnam is not alone in its fears. The Spratlys have jumped to the forefront
of security issues within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which
includes the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei and Singapore.
   Concerns have also been voiced in Japan because vital imports, including oil
from the Middle East, move through the South China Sea to Japanese ports.
   Possible conflict in the South China Sea has been cited as being behind a
current arms buildup by ASEAN members, with Malaysia and the Philippines
upgrading their navies, Singapore purchasing U.S.-made F-16 warplanes and
Malaysia probably buying Russian MiG-29 jets.
   The Spratly dispute is being variously viewed as a conflict over natural
resources and China's signal that it intends to fill a post-Cold War power
vacuum after the collapse of the Soviet Union and withdrawal of U.S. military
bases from the Philippines.
   Charles McGregor, an expert on the Spratly controversy who teaches at
University College of Wales, said Beijing also could use the Spratlys as a
"pressure point" against Vietnam in other disputes. He cited the competing
interests of China and Vietnam in Cambodia as an example.
   "They are not going to act forcibly against ASEAN countries and probably not
against Vietnam unless the Cambodian situation really deteriorates," McGregor
predicted in a telephone interview.
   He said China probably would occupy more ungarrisoned islands in the group
as other claimants have done, but he also warned the Chinese could escalate the
conflict by striking at Vietnamese installations in the Spratlys.
   A swift Chinese operation in 1974 captured another South China Sea island
group, the Paracels, from the former South Vietnamese government. In 1988,
Beijing fought a brief naval battle with Vietnam, sinking two ships and killing
more than 70 Vietnamese sailors when it seized half a dozen islands in the
Spratlys.
   The Spratlys lie more than 620 miles southeast of Hainan Island, China's
southernmost province, but Beijing says China has had claims on the Spratlys
since ancient times.
   "The Chinese are so passionately convinced that it's theirs that if the
United Nations rules otherwise they'll simply ignore it," McGregor said. "The
Chinese have offered joint development of South China Sea resources, but
they're saying, `Either you develop it with us or we're going to do it
ourselves anyway, and you can't do anything about it.' "
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