From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- NL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1992 17:07:36 GMT



                  NL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                (through games of Wednesday, July 22)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maddux         CHI   11.7   4.3  0.730   12  8   2.32   31.8   3.47
Tewksbury      STL   10.1   3.9  0.721    8  4   2.27   26.5   2.83
Glavine        ATL   10.3   5.7  0.643   14  3   2.87   20.3   2.27
Smoltz         ATL   10.5   6.6  0.615   12  6   3.01   19.1   1.98
Swift          SFG    7.8   3.9  0.663    8  2   2.46   16.3   1.81
Drabek         PIT    9.8   6.4  0.607    8  7   2.83   18.8   1.62
Cone           NYM   10.0   6.7  0.601   11  4   2.83   16.4   1.61
Swindell       CIN    9.0   5.9  0.606    9  3   3.09   15.3   1.58
Schilling      PHI    6.5   3.7  0.636    6  4   2.77   13.2   1.31
Avery          ATL    9.1   6.5  0.585    8  7   3.33   12.7   1.18
Hill           MON    8.4   5.7  0.593   11  4   3.12   12.7   1.27
Portugal       HOU    6.1   3.9  0.611    5  3   2.80   10.8   1.01
Morgan         CHI    7.8   5.8  0.576    7  4   3.47   10.1   0.98
Fernandez      NYM    7.3   5.6  0.565    8  8   3.06    9.5   0.79
Candiotti      LAD    8.1   6.4  0.556    7  8   3.24    7.9   0.64
Smith,Z        PIT    8.2   6.6  0.553    8  7   3.51    5.7   0.84
Rijo           CIN    6.5   5.1  0.560    7  6   3.42    7.8   0.53
Martinez,D     MON    7.8   6.5  0.548    9  9   3.56    6.3   0.58
Barnes         MON    2.5   1.1  0.688    2  2   2.25    6.2   0.68
Leibrandt      ATL    6.8   5.5  0.555    7  3   4.05    1.4   0.68



Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    3.0   6.6  0.312    1 11   5.34  -11.8  -1.73
Young,A        NYM    2.8   6.3  0.307    1  7   5.79  -17.8  -1.69
Burkett        SFG    5.2   8.6  0.377    6  6   5.37  -19.3  -1.70
Wilson,T       SFG    4.7   8.0  0.370    6 10   4.83  -13.1  -1.54
Martinez,R     LAD    5.2   8.2  0.386    5  7   4.95  -15.1  -1.45
Cormier        STL    4.1   7.2  0.365    2  8   5.56  -15.0  -1.57
Gooden         NYM    5.2   8.2  0.388    6  9   4.36   -9.1  -1.48
Henry,B        HOU    5.1   8.1  0.388    3  6   4.66  -10.6  -1.33
Bowen          HOU    0.1   3.0  0.037    0  4  14.14  -16.8  -1.40
Blair          HOU    0.2   3.0  0.064    0  4  10.31  -13.8  -1.34



Luckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Lefferts       SDP    5.8   7.3    11  6    6.5
Glavine        ATL   10.3   5.7    14  3    6.5
Black          SFG    5.4   5.0     8  3    4.6
Hill           MON    8.3   5.7    11  4    4.4
Tomlin         PIT    7.0   7.1    10  6    4.1
Burkett        SFG    4.7   8.6     6  6    3.9
Cone           NYM    9.9   6.7    11  4    3.8
Seminara       SDP    2.9   3.3     5  2    3.4
Browning       CIN    4.1   6.5     6  5    3.4
Greene         PHI    1.0   3.1     2  1    3.1



Unluckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    3.0   6.6     1 11   -6.4
Maddux         CHI   11.7   4.3    12  8   -3.4
Jackson,D      C/P    5.7   7.7     4  9   -3.0
Cormier        STL    4.1   7.2     2  8   -2.9
Bielecki       ATL    4.0   3.3     2  4   -2.7
Harnisch       HOU    6.2   8.6     3  8   -2.6
Benes          SDP    8.2   7.7     7  9   -2.5
Candiotti      LAD    7.9   6.4     7  8   -2.5
Drabek         PIT    9.8   6.4     8  7   -2.5
Kile           HOU    3.2   4.7     2  6   -2.4



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL     41.2   27.5   0.600   40.3   43  23   3.24   3.05   6.75
CHI     36.7   28.0   0.567   34.8   32  34   3.53   3.27   4.06
MON     34.6   31.0   0.527   33.0   40  35   3.67   3.62   1.69
STL     34.8   31.5   0.525   34.2   27  31   3.81   3.74   1.36
CIN     33.0   31.2   0.514   31.9   35  28   3.79   3.66   0.76
PIT     34.4   32.8   0.512   32.9   32  31   3.77   3.82   0.92
NYM     34.0   34.1   0.499   33.4   31  34   3.69   3.90  -0.07
SDP     32.1   37.0   0.464   30.8   35  33   4.27   4.34  -2.46
LAD     31.5   37.6   0.456   30.5   31  39   4.04   4.25  -3.11
SFG     29.3   36.5   0.445   28.2   30  34   4.43   4.61  -3.48
HOU     27.6   39.0   0.414   26.6   20  36   4.55   4.73  -5.38
PHI     28.1   40.5   0.409   27.1   26  38   4.81   4.66  -5.98
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NL     397.3  406.7   0.494  383.6  382 396   3.96   3.96  -4.93


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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