From: ingles@rootbeer.engin.umich.edu (Ray Ingles)
Subject: Re: Future Civilization Advances
Date: Fri, 04 Sep 92 13:04:47 EDT
Organization: University of Michigan Engineering, Ann Arbor
Originator: ingles@rootbeer.engin.umich.edu


In article <laa20cINNiuj@spim.mips.com>, jackc@vermont.mips.com (Jack Choquette) writes:
> 
> I've been playing the computer game called "Civilization"...

[deletions]

> This sparked an interest for me to do research in what science
> fiction believes future civilization advances will be...

[deletions]

>  Below are some possible categories and
> some examples from history.  Feel free to go outside these categories.
> 	transportation:  sailing, railroads, flight
> 	weapons:  gunpowder, nuclear
> 	government:  Monarchy, Democracy, Communism
> 	religion/philosophy/education
> 	trade:  currency, trade caravans and routes  
> 	new sciences:  chemistry, physics.
> 	discoveries: electricity, magnetism
> 

 Well, I'll bite. Feel free to tell me I don't know what I'm saying,
as long as you tell me what *you* think is likely/possible/probable
(fair's fair. :-> ). I assume most people reading this know of things
like nanotech and hypertext and so forth. If not, post a question or
mail it to me, I guess, and it will doubtless be answered.

 Obviously, nanotech is going to be the biggie in the nearer future.
But the first fruits that the "common person" will see from this is,
I think, in the realm of computers. After all, this is the main
industry right now with the most interest in miniaturization and
micro/nano/etc. manufacturing.
 Computers will become cheaper and faster and more prevalent. (Gosh, I
bet no one expected this.) But this will change the way people
communicate- esp. when hypertext really gets going. Intelligent
Highway Systems (or whatever they're calling it now) will streamline
transportation, but I'm not sure they'll make a major change in
transportation itself.
 Virtual reality (made *very* realistic by the blinding speed and massive
parallelism possible with nanomachining) will have gobs of social
effects- would a general mistrust of sensory input result? (Probably not,
but...) Imagine being able to educate someone in, say, geology by being
able to *visit* different geological eras, different spots on present-day
Earth, being able to fast-forward through geological time, being able
to simulate your own planets, etc.... Education will change drastically,
becoming more effective and more individual... but by the same token,
propaganda inserted into the curriculum will become that much more
convincing.
 Once nanotech *really* gets going, things will get strange. Read _Engines_
of_Creation_ by K. Eric Drexler for an exploration of some possibilities. Cryogenically preserved individuals may be restored to life... any injury that does not destroy the brain may be repairable (and maybe even brain damage, if you can find a way to keep a backup... and what would multiple copies of the
same individual do to society?)... You could have your own personal
factory capable of making dang near anything you could get the instructions
and raw materials for... etc.
 Obviously, at some point we are going to have the tech to put major
installations in space. Maybe sooner, maybe later, though I hope sooner.
With all that room, there will be a *lot* more people. What would a
solar system with a few trillion inhabitants be like, socially?
(Note, whoever moves out in to space in a big way *first* will have a big
military advantage over any others that remain Earthbound... dropping
an asteroid on a city could easily level it as well as a nuke, without
al that pesky fallout and such. With good computers, space-based antitank
weapons of this type may be feasible- that would be air support you could
almost *never* block.
 Obviously I'm not going to go into major detail here... I haven't thought
that deeply about it, for one thing.
 As to the *really* distant future... there's no real way to guess. Ideas
(not all of them totally plausible) can be found in _Future_Magic_ by Dr.
Robert L. Forward.
 (Actually, I have an idea about how time-travel might affect society, but
I'm going to put that in a separate post in a week or two.)

Sincerely,

Ray Ingles                  || The above opinions are probably
                            || not those of the University of
ingles@caen.engin.umich.edu || Michigan. Yet.