From: fester@island.COM (Mike Fester)
Subject: Re: The Northern Islands
Organization: /usr/local/rn/organization
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 15:11:51 GMT

In article <1992Sep25.010520.21032@Csli.Stanford.EDU> hiraga@Csli.Stanford.EDU (Yuzuru Hiraga) writes:

>Surely, Mike, you're dodging the issue...

??Hardly. Unless you mean that in your opinion, Japan has some sort of
moral claim to the islands, in which case I have made it quite clear that they
have none.

>In article <1992Sep22.145436.1219@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>>Miniscule? Harldy. The Russian economy needs LARGE sums of money.
>
>Arf! Arf!  Does this line make sense?
>I said that the benifit obtained from fiddling around is trifles.
>Trying to cumulate on them is hardly an efficient way to make
>"LARGE sums of money".

And giving them back would not make any money for them, and would alienate
several conservative factions in the current Russian political scene. Japanese
"good will" seems less important to the Russians right now than hard cash.

>>Seems Boris has
>>more pressing problems than the amity of a nation that didn't mind taking 
>>over China, Korea, Hokkaido, etc, but then states 'War should not be a means
>>of taking territory'

>Yeah, yeah, as well as the one that fought with Russia in 1904 and
>intervened in counter-revolution wars and had border conflicts in the '30s,
>not to mention the country where Nazis took power and invaded USSR
>breaking the neutrality treaty, and of course we shouldn't forget
>the country that scraped off Finland and Poland...
>What's the point in bringing this up?  Surely Boris hadn't told you that.

?? In any event, as mentioned previously, Japan has no "moral" claim on this,
though their stated position is always based on "justice and law". Yet their
past (including the past that brought about the loss of those islands) was
based on a "winner take all" expansionism. 

>Up to now, I didn't realize that you were speaking from your personal
>preference for a particular country.  I should have known better.

Had I a personal preference for Russia over Japan, I no doubt would have chosen
to live in Russia (and not Japan) and I would be posting to s.c.russia.

>>Actually, the Japanese have proven more than capable of increasing the tensions
>>between themsleves and anyone else (history book controversies, comfort women
>>denials, etc) without Russian help.

>Arf?

??

>I though we were talking about Yeltsin's political attitude.

Actually, we were talking about Japan's relations with her neighbors.

>>Actually, I believe the "bluff and diehard" attitude equally applies to Miyazawa
>>in this instance.
>
>Miyazawa would feel quite flattered if he heard that.
>Or are you saying that Miyazawa pleaded Yeltsin to cancel/postpone his visit?

??

>>In a diplomatic relation, one must also recognize who holds the stronger hand.
>>Right now, that's Russia. 

>Stronger hand for what?
>Although I'm not much against that per se, since you're the one who
>brought it up, I'd appreciate knowing how that can be integrated
>into a coherent picture with lines like:
>>The Russian economy needs LARGE sums of money.
>>The Russians are after cash, plain and simple.

And Japan WANTS the islands. Russia has shown an ability to make money off those
islands, without Japanese consent. 

>>Investment almost anywhere is risky.

>Why this overgeneralization?
>Investment to RUSSIA is considered as relatively risky,
>be it with or without OED, compared with other locations on equal grounds.

Investment almost anywhere is risky, as indicated by the US and Japanese 
banking difficulties, though they were investing heavily in their own economies.

>And need I point out that there was a fairly large investment/support
>agreement signed some two weeks ago?  Whether considering this as the
>Japanese (as well as Russian) government were cool-headed and practical,
>or simply that Japan "gave-in", is up to you.
>I myself, though, would refrain from oversimplifying issues that
>are as complex as diplomatic relationships.

Sorry, but the fact remains that the Russians are in firm control of those
islands right now. If they Japanese want them back, they are going to have
to be a lot more clever and a lot more flexible. That is, actually, rather 
simple.

Mike
-- 
Disclaimer - I'm only doing what the little voices tell me to do.