From: steph@cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: AL Rookie of Year Award?
Date: 29 Sep 92 21:58:25 GMT
Article-I.D.: pegasus.steph.717803905
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL

In <1992Sep28.233614.24516@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:

>In article <steph.717717072@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu> steph@cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson) writes:
>>In <1992Sep25.050240.2328@panix.com> spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira) writes:
>>
>>>But the basic "problem" with Lofton is this: the best centerfielder in
>>>baseball probably isn't worth as much defensively as the worst defensive
>>>shortstop.  
>>
>>This seems too strong to me.  If we can use the concept of
>>"replacement level defense" for a moment, I would suspect the worst
>>defensive shortstop in the league would convert *less* plays into outs
>>than his replacement would, and is hurting his team defensively.  The
>>best centerfielder in baseball converts *more* plays into outs than
>>his replacement would, and his helping his team defensively.  So the
>>best centerfielder would be far more valuable defensively than the
>>worst shortstop.

>You are right.  Except that your replacement CF will hit a lot better
>than your replacement SS.  Suppose we have a player who can either
>play CF well or SS poorly.  Let's call him HoJo.  Suppose we have both
>a replacement level SS and a replacement level CF, and we have no
>other alternatives at either position.

Purely theoretical, right?  :->.

>If we play HoJo in CF, our defense will be much better.  If we play
>HoJo at SS, our offense will be much better (since our
>replacement-level CF hits better than our replacement-level SS).

>Is HoJo more valuable as a shortstop or CF?  Dunno.  (Actually in
>real life, he is *not* a good defensive CF, so he is almost certainly
>more valuable at shortstop.  But that's not the question here.)

Actually, the statement I challenged was that the worst shortstop was
more valuable *defensively* than the best centerfielder, which is clearly not
true.  The value of the player overall is a combination of offense and
defense.

>>Thought to ponder:  if Frank Thomas (with existing range, arm, and glovework)
>>were placed at shortstop, would he really be more valuable defensively than
>>Wally Joyner or Mark McGwire?

>No, or he would be played at that position.  Consider a player's value
>as follows:

>(Offense above average at position) + (Defense above average at position)

>Thomas' offense would be *way* above average at shortstop.  But his
>defense would cost the team even more runs than that.  He might even
>be a net *negative*, while he's a great contributor at 1B.

If I were a manager, and I had eight Frank Thomas clones, I would be sorely
tempted to play them everywhere and let the defense fall apart.  (Well, maybe
not replacing the catcher.)

>Back to the HoJo example, at SS he rates very highly in the first part
>of the sum.  At CF, he isn't penalized so much in the second.

This is true, though depending on who is available to play at other positions,
he may be more valuable to his team at SS, even if he is more valuable at CF
in a purely theoretical instance.  And his versatility ought to be worth
some value, even if it can't be measured.
--
Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic

  "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not 
   overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball