From: ems@michael.apple.com (E. Michael Smith)
Newsgroups: sci.energy
Subject: Re: Electric Vehicle
Date: 17 Dec 92 01:07:28 GMT
Organization: Circle 'C' Shellfish Ranch, Shores-of-the-Pacific, California

In article <77612@ncratl.AtlantaGA.NCR.COM> mwilson@ncratl.AtlantaGA.NCR.COM (Mark Wilson) writes:
>In <1992Dec15.192918.1@vax.sonoma.edu> oberland@vax.sonoma.edu writes:

>You figure on replacing the entire car after only 40K miles.  If you want to
>do that as a comparison, you can also figure on disregarding all of those
>expensive repairs to the IC car.  The odds of anything breaking in the first
>40K are very, very low. 

Just as an FYI, I think it is Chrysler that has their 7/70 campaign.
They cover your major stuff for seven years or 70k miles...

>|6-10K more for the EV(why, I don't know, as the thing is simpler, and has less
>|materials-I figure the batteries cost 20K)-this is WAYYYY to high, considering
>|that such a vehicle would be available in 3-4 years, and Hi-H prices will be
>|MUCCCCH less by then.
>
>This appears to be mostly wishfull thinking.

Ditto.  The NiMH is a proprietary technology with many years left to
run on the patents.  Why should they cut price anytime soon?  Look into
the rational behaviour of monopoly pricing for the answer... they will
be priced at a premium as long as they maintain their premium performance.

>|200miles in avg commuter car would take 5 gallons of gas.  multiply times 
>|250 for 50K miles*2/gallon=2500 dollars for gas.  Recharging my EV would
>|not cost anywhere NEAR 10 dollars for 200 miles.
>
>I beleive you are being very optimistic with your figures here.  Someone on
>the net calculated that you need several KwH to drive your car a mile
>at 60MPH.  At 10 cents per KwH this would add up very quickly.

It seems that, from both theoretical approaches and from reality
based observations, it takes about 30 kW to hold 60 MPH.  Sooo it
takes about 30 kW-h to go 60 miles in one hour, or about 2 miles/kW-h.
That is about $.05/mile ...  Now your commuter is getting 40 mpg at $1.20
per gallon (todays prices) or about $.03/mile.  Looks to me like you
need to either double the price of gas or cut electricity usage/price
in half.  I don't see either happening soon.  And that is for break-even
on fuel costs vis.a.vis the gas vehicle.  MORE will be required to 
pry folks out of their present comfortable cars...

>|I figure a conservative 1000-1500 dollars less to run and operate for 50K
>|miles.
>
>Your conservative figures are optimistic by probably an order of magnitude.

50K miles x $.05/mile = $2,500.00, or about what he predicted for cars
at $2/gallon of gas.  But he isn't off by an order of magnitude, only
by a factor of 2.  Oh, you wanted to include the batteries, too! ;-)
Well then, figure $5k every 500 cycles, and 100 miles/cycle, or $5k
every 50K miles, so it is only $7,500 for that 50k miles.  Golly,
only a factor of 5 to 7.5 over optimistic ;-0.

>|figure in oil changes, clutch job, muffler,tuneups, and simmilar, and
>
>Lets see, after 50K miles, you will have changed the oil 10 times, ($50 to
>$100 depending on wether you do it yourself)  way to early for a clutch
>job, the muffler is in great shape and the car is still in tune.  Your
>imagined savings are evaporating rapidly.

Just to give a reference point:  The first Major TUNE UP on my HONDA
wasn't scheduled 'till 60k miles.  There was a minor tune up at 30k,
but nothing was out of spec.  They did change the spark plugs at 30k,
though...  BTW, it wasn't until 200k+ that the cluch plate was changed,
and that only cost a couple of hundred.  Still has the original muffler
at 225k miles.  Tuneups, every 30k are about $100 in the shop, the 60k
runs about $200 max.  I do them myself alot, though, for about $20 in 
parts.  The first major work it got was at 209k miles, when it needed
valve seals for $175.  I think I've got about $2500 total maintenance
in it (it ate 2 water pumps in that time at $60 each, and a heater
core for $400 !)  Unless you can get 400,000 miles on a $5000 battery
pack, you will be very hard pressed to win the maintenance costs game...

>If you are paying $1K to $2K per year for routine maintenance, I suggest you
>get a new mechanic, as you are being ripped off big time.  At 5K miles per
>year, the only regular maintanence should be one oil change.

I agree totaly.  I'd expect $1k to get me 1k miles of maintenance...

>|you CAN'T budget it.  AS for the comment about investing the extra money,

Yes, you can budget it.  It is called a 'sinking fund for repairs' and
is common in both business and private lives.

>|GET REAL.  Almost everyone finances their car, so having the extra money lying

I've paid cash for 4 out of 6 cars & trucks.  The two that had loans got
paid off Real Early.  I hate car payments...  We are presently looking for
a new car.  We will pay cash for it.  Maybe it's just me ... ;-)  No,
my wife and dad didn't buy on credit either ... nor did Her folks ...
nor did her sister ... nor ...

>|around to invest is just not going to happen.  Also, that money IF it were
>|invested would most likely go for other things("..well, gee.. the car hasn't
>|had any problems so far, and a new Computer would be nice...).  

Only if it is a 'co-mingled' fund.  We have one.  If the car fund
has overflowed, then you are justified to spend the 'surplus' on 
other things, retaining the basic balance...

>|As for replacing the batteries, IF I need to replace them, I can either get
>|the same thing that was originally in the car(but now 10 YEAR old technology)
>|or I can get new ones that give me double the range, if not more.
>|Replacing them ten years down the road(or even 5) will cost little compared
>|to their original cost.
>
>More assumptions out of thin air.  Please document these miracle batteries
>of yours.

Also, while you are at it, take a look at the history of battery 
advances.  I think you will be hard pressed to demonstrate consistant
doubling of capacity every 5 years (NOT 10, you will be luck to get 2,
but I'll be generous and grant you 5 ...) at a constant or falling price.

I'd suggest that you take a reality check ride in someones EV to 
get a grip on what the Real Thing is like.  An expensive slow
golf cart with very limited range and high costs to charge.  Yes,
any ONE of these can be overcome, but at the cost of making the
others worse...  Fast, Good, Cheap ... pick any two.

-- 

E. Michael Smith  ems@apple.COM

'Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has
 genius, power and magic in it.'  -  Goethe

I am not responsible nor is anyone else.  Everything is disclaimed.