From: ednclark@kraken.itc.gu.edu.au (Jeffrey Clark)
Subject: Re: Challenge to Agnostics
Organization: ITC, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia
Date: 22 Dec 92 01:31:44 GMT

jcopelan@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu (The One and Only) writes:

>>Prob.   Beleif
>>
>>100     My own Existence
>>100     Nothing else is 100% certain
>>99.9999 I have sight, hearing, smell, touch and taste available.
>>99.999  That my senses reasonably accurately relate to me the environment
>>99.999  The existence of my body, friends, car, house, and everywhere I've
>>        been. Insert theory of probability and theory of gravity here.
>>99.99   That Adolf Hitler existed, New York exists, and other things I see
>>        in reliable texts and communication mediums. You could probably
>>	insert the theory of evolution about here.
>>99.9    That St Paul existed, William shakespeare and those things which are
>>	pretty well accepted but minor bits of doubt hang if only due to
>>	long periods of time between now and then.
>>99      The existence of Jesus.
>>50      That Jesus did actually think he was the son of a god, and did most
>>        of the things attributed in the bible.
>>0.0001  That Jesus did any form of miracle, such as walk on water, resurrect
>>        Lazarus, or turn water into wine etc etc.
>>0.0001  That there is some form of deity that magically can do amazing
>>        things that we should worry about (ie either worship or defend
>>	against).
>>10^-10  That the judeo-christian God exists, and that Jesus is the way to
>>        heaven, and that a God would give a shit what we think of
>>	hime/her/they/it.
>>

>What about black holes, atoms, gravity, quarks?

>What is your basis for assigning 100% probability to the statement that
>nothing else is 100% certain?

>At what point does a probability become so close to 100% or 0% as to be of 
>no real or practical difference? For example:

Well bloody hell, I couldn't put in everything (and I did mention gravity)!
I think those 4 things could probably be assigned 99.99 except black holes
which I'll put down on 99. All very subjective and probably changes from day
to day. But basically anything 99% and above can be accepted as truth for
me. Sometimes I will have to make a decision based on something I am only
50% sure about (say the statement all politicians are corrupted by power
regardless of their good intentions upon entering politics), and then I have
a dilemma. But anything up there around 99% or more, I will act in pure
confidence that I am most probably right (noticed that I must qualify
everything).

>What is the difference between the world we live in and a world without God?

In my view no difference, but it is not something I am 100% certain about.

>or

>What is the difference between the world we live in and a world with black 
>holes?

Probably little, but I'm not 100% certain of that (we may be living in a
cosmos without them now I wonder what vast changes in physical phenomena may
be necessary to allow the existence of such beasts, it may be astonishing
differences).

>Jim Copeland
>-- 
>Have you washed your brain today?
>--
>|      Reporter: "Mr. Gandhi, What do you think of Western Civilization?"    |
>|      Mr. Gandhi: "I think it would be a good idea!"                        |

Jeff.
 


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