From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 10:07:02 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 352, 12/17/92
10.7 FLUX=150.3  90-AVG=136        SSN=157      BKI=0133 3542  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B6.2     FLU1=8.4E+05  FLU10=9.9E+03  PKI=0033 4543  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=003,005,026,021,028,087,056,013   DEV-AVG=029 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C7.0   @ 1132UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.7   @ 1040UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.5
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1610UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2320UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2000UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1245UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55428NT @ 1531UT   BOUTF-MIN=55379NT @ 1952UT  BOUTF-AVG=55411NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+159NT@ 1855UT   GOES7-MIN=E:-020NT@ 1809UT  G7-AVG=+077,+020,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+179NT@ 1857UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-028NT@ 0811UT  G6-AVG=+096,-007,+027
 FLUXFCST=STD:145,140,135;SESC:145,140,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/020,025,015
    KFCST=3443 3334 3454 3344  27DAY-AP=004,008   27DAY-KP=1101 1112 4320 0011
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:19NT@0615UTC;**MAGPAUSE:GOES-6@1745-1746UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. An uncorrelated C7.0 X-ray
       event occurred at 17/1132UT. Region 7371 (S09W37) was the only
       region showing significant development. Region 7372 (S11E69)
       was assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Rapid development in Region 7371 indicates a fair
       potential for C-class flares and an outside chance for an
       isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels until about 17/1700UT. We then entered active to minor
       storm levels. The GOES-6 satellite experienced a short-lived
       magnetopause crossing between 1745-1746UT. A sudden impulse of
       19 nanoteslas was observed in mid-latitudes at 17/0615UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the entire
       forecast period because of a well positioned coronal hole.
       High latitude stations may continue to see minor storm levels.

            Event probabilities 18 dec-20 dec

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 dec-20 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/40/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/40/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions became slightly degraded today.
       Conditions became unstable following the sudden magnetic
       impulse noted above.  Moderate to strong signal degradation was
       reported over the Australian region on oblique paths.  Nothern
       hemisphere paths crossing into the auroral zones also suffered
       moderate to occasionally strong signal degradation due to
       enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Propagation is
       expected to be near-normal to slightly below normal for the
       next three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7360  S17W77  166  0120 HAX  04  004 ALPHA
7362  S05W85  174  0140 HAX  03  002 ALPHA
7363  S08W46  135  0070 DAO  06  010 BETA
7364  N09W50  139  0060 CSO  06  002 BETA
7366  S11W19  108  0010 BXO  06  009 BETA
7368  S32W02  091  0060 DSO  08  012 BETA
7369  S06E28  061  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7370  S08E40  049  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7371  S09W37  126  0130 DAO  06  015 BETA
7372  S11E69  020  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 DECEMBER TO 20 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7348 N11   341
7352 N19   341
7350 S20   337


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
76   N25E03 S06W27 S04W28 N27E03  111  ISO   POS   016 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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