From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:MALAWI: HAS THE OPPOSITION LEARNT THE KENYA LESSON?
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1993 13:42:07 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1993, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Title: MALAWI: HAS THE OPPOSITION LEARNT THE KENYA LESSON?


blantyre, malawi, jan 18 (ips/obinna anyadike) -- malawi's two
opposition groups say they will work together for a ''yes'' vote
in the proposed march referendum on multiparty reform.

but that could be as far as unity goes.

''we will work together for the purpose of the referendum. but
the question of formally uniting will have to be looked at later.
we are fighting a one-party state, and we wouldn't after the
election like to see a one-party state again'', bakili maluzi,
chair of the united democratic front (udf) told ips.

although the kenya lesson where a divided opposition allowed
president daniel arap moi to snatch the recent election has been
noted here, it may not be fully appreciated.

there is a strong desire among ordinary malawians for a single
opposition front to take-on president hastings banda if elections
are held. but personality clashes between the leadership of the
udf and the alliance for democracy (aford) could well frustrate
such sentiments.

banda has ruled this central african country since
independence in 1964. but last year, the 93-year-old self-
declared life president found his grip shaken. a groundswell of
popular opinion, long supressed, demanded change.

it was initiated publically by a pastoral letter from catholic
bishops in march, championed by trade unionist chakufwa chihana
who was swiftly jailed, and bolstered by a donor aid freeze in
may. the same month, there were street demonstrations for the
first time in malawi where the police killed at least 40 people.

in october aford was launched and a month later the udf. they
are both affiliated to the public affairs committee, an umbrella
organisation which includes professionals, christian and muslim
leaders, which acts as the interface with a government that still
describes the opposition as ''dissidents''.

aford is chaired by chihana, sentenced to two-years in a
maximum security prison in december for sedition. privately,
senior members of the udf told ips they would find it difficult
to work with the trade unionist even if his conviction was
quashed. they appear disdainful of his bold and brash approach.

''there is a marriage of convenience (between aford and
udf)'', chihana's lawyer bazuka mahango explained. ''but i
believe people should take a resolute stand and get together.

''i know personality problems and desire for leadership may
cloud the issue but i think that is the biggest mistake that
could happen. this (election) is not going to be an easy ride
and we could end up repeating the kenya story'', he added.
(more/ips)


malawi: has (2)

neither the udf or aford have anything approaching manifestos.
constitutionally, they cannot appear as political parties, only
pressure groups for the purpose of the referendum.

but aford is recognised as the more militant. its membership
of human rights activists, lawyers and clerics contrasts with the
udf whose leadership is drawn from the business community and
former senior members of the ruling malawi congress party (mcp).

crudely defined, aford is northern-based and is well
entrenched in that traditional home of the country's
professional class. the udf on the other hand is a southern
movement. both are trying to broaden their regional appeal.

whatever division or animosity may exist between the
leadership of the two pressure groups, that does not extend into
the ranks. ''we at the grassroots will force them into unity'',
one aford member from the south, who did not want to be
identified, said.

it is difficult to gauge the strength of the opposition in
the countryside, which is the constituency they have to win.

it has been a deliberate policy of the government to prevent
urban drift and keep the people on the land. around 85 percent
of malawi's nine million people are subsistence farmers in an
economy in the rural areas which is based on barter trade.

although the countryside is lamentably under-developed,
''people are extremely modest in their expectations. if they
have enough to eat and a place to live it will be difficult to
mobilise them'', one western diplomat alleged.

with state control of the radio whose coverage of the
opposition is at best scanty, and the traditional influence of
some local chiefs who may side with the government, the
opposition will face a difficult task in getting their message
across in the rural areas.

''we in the towns want multiparty but those in the villages
are ignorant'', one young man in the southern commercial city of
blantyre, who refused to be named, declared.

''in the north the people in the countryside know (about an
opposition). but the north is just 10 percent of the
population'', the diplomat said.

however, the grapevine is a powerful instrument. visits by
city dwellers to families in the villages is one method by which
word will spread. (end/ips/oa/fc/93)
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