From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 07:23:53 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                14 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 349, 12/14/92
10.7 FLUX=167    90-AVG=135        SSN=161      BKI=2211 2222  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B6.6     FLU1=8.0E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3111 1222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=018,011,008,008,015,015,015,012   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.5   @ 1756UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.6   @ 0634UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0450UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1650UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1310UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 1503UT   BOUTF-MIN=55398NT @ 2031UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1938UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 0115UT  G7-AVG=+078,+025,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1938UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 2341UT  G6-AVG=+096,-005,+030
 FLUXFCST=STD:170,165,165;SESC:170,165,165 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2222 3222 2222 3222  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2321 2221 2111 3221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Several subflares occurred
       two of which reached C-class. Regions 7362 (S05W48) and new
       7368 (S34E36) were responsible for the activity. Both Regions
       grew during the period, particularly 7368. New Region 7367
       (S15W52) was also numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7362 and 7368 are expected to produce
       C-class subflares. Both regions also pose a slight threat for
       isolated M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 15 dec-17 dec

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 dec-17 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions have continued near-normal over
       all regions.  No changes are expected for the next 72 hours
       (through 17 December inclusive).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S18W76  204  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7360  S18W35  163  0310 EHO  12  020 BETA
7362  S06W49  177  0590 EKI  11  019 BETA
7363  S08W07  135  0090 CAO  08  013 BETA
7364  N08W11  139  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7366  S12E19  109  0080 DAO  07  017 BETA
7367  S15W52  180  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7368  S33E36  092  0040 CSO  05  008 BETA
7365  S23W64  192                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 DECEMBER TO 17 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7354 S23   005


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1719 1720 1720                          690



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/B0935             A1900       S40E08   DSF
14/ 1042     1124     1159                LDE    C1.7   77
14/ 1732     1756     1827       S33E39   LDE    C3.5   54


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
75   N50W21 N27W61 N34W65 N62W43  181  EXT   POS   039 10830A
76   N22E36 S01E05 S01E05 N23E23  112  ISO   POS   014 10830A
77   S35E07 S45E06 S29W07 S27W06  136  ISO   NEG   006 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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