HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: mbk@netcom.com (Miles Kehoe)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Are we nearing another stock market crash?
Date: 30 Sep 92 19:03:22 GMT
Article-I.D.: netcom.1992Sep30.190322.29323
Distribution: na
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest)

rion@Ingres.COM (Rion Cassidy (x3357) OGT) writes:

>It seems to me that there was a big concern about computerized trading
>back in the '87 crash and the steps were taken to prevent a similar
>situation from ever arising.  I don't know the specifics, but I was
>given the impression that there might be downturns, but never such
>huge one day losses ever again.  Any comments?


The Titanic, by using the best in state-of-the-art technology,
can never sink!

Hm... "never" is such a LONG time!

mbk
From: suhre@meltami.dsd.trw.com (Maurice E. Suhre)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: stock market moves down inefficiently??
Date: 29 Sep 92 00:14:27 GMT
Organization: TRW, INC.

In article <1992Sep27.200443.10830@eng.umd.edu> anth@eng.umd.edu (Anthony G. Bradford) writes:
 
>Also I noticed in the WSJ the other day, there seems to more long term
>call options then put options, does this add to my theory the the
>market has a natural upward overpriced bias?

The market's natural upward bias is not a theory, at not IMHO.  The
obvious explanation is that the natural price rise because of inflation
also shows up in the stock market (eventually).  

Yes, mutual funds cannot short.  That doesn't mean that they can't sell.
And selling drives the market down.
-- 
Maurice Suhre
suhre@trwrb.dsd.trw.com
From: tmark@cognet.ucla.edu (Terence Mark)
Subject: Re: How saturated is the market for Windows?
Organization: UCLA Cognitive Science Research Program
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 20:32:55 GMT

In article <MERRITT.92Sep30093237@macro.bu.edu> merritt@macro.bu.edu (Sean Merritt) writes:
>In article <1992Sep30.071415.1862@cs.sfu.ca> mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca (Ken Mcdonald) writes:
>
>
>
>>   Anyone have numbers on how successful Windows penetration of the IBM/clone
>>   market has been?  In particular, out of those machines which have the
>>   ability to run windows, how many have already been so equipped, and
>>   how many have yet to change over?
>
>This is irrelevant in my opinion. The question to be asking is; Will
>Windows NT penetrate the pc market AND the workstation market as
>succesfully as Windows has. If the answer is yes(to both) than Microsoft
>seems to be selling pretty cheaply at the moment.
>

Also, don't forget that just about every PC that's sold now goes out with
a copy of Windows. And that Microsoft extracts a good pound of flesh
with each and every update of Windows. I would think that these two 
factors could be more important to Microsoft than sales to owners
of older (and less satisfactory ) Windows-capable machines at this 
point in time.
From: srini@milton.u.washington.edu (Srini Tridandapani)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Info on Conseco
Date: 30 Sep 92 16:35:16 GMT
Article-I.D.: u.1992Sep30.163516.378
Distribution: usa
Organization: University of Washington, Seattle


Does anybody know of an insurance company called Conseco (NYSE- CNC)
This was a real high flier last year.. went from $17 to
$78......
Since then it retreated to around $70 and then split 2:1.

It continued retreating after the split until it hit a pre-split price
of about $51... Then languished there for quite a while...

In anticipation of this quarters earnings it has risen to a presplit
price of about $60 similar to a rise before the previous quarters
earnings (only to be followed by a retreat later... no it wasnt hammered
down)....

What I'm wondering is if the current rise is just another temporary
phenomenon like last quarter or if there is some good news about
the company lately... It has been advertising in the WSJ,Investors
Daily etc these days and claims it has very little exposure to the
real estate market which has brought down a lot of insurance portfolios..

Any info on Conseco will be appreciated...!
Please post or email replies to
mansoor@ssdc.honeywell.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: cfwpm@ux1.cts.eiu.edu (Bill McGown)
Subject: Source for indicators/summary statistics?
Date: Tue, 06 Oct 1992 06:10:05 GMT
Organization: Eastern Illinois University

I am in need for a source for information similar to that contained
in Barron's Market Laboratory. Things like put/call ratio, # advance
vs. # declines, new bond offerings (in $), M1, S & P 500 P/E and 
other similar indicators/indexes. 

Of course these can be picked up by keying them in from Barron's and
BW but who wants to type when they might be available via a net or
modem link. Any suggestions as to a source for these and other
indicators/indexes?  Many thanks... I will summarize for the net.
Actually, this might be a contender for the FAQ.

Thanks again.


Bill.

-- 
**************************************************************
W. P. (Bill) McGown                     Eastern Ill. Univ
cfwpm@ux1.cts.eiu.edu                   Psychology Department
                                        Charleston, Il. 61920
From: muldoon@books.enet.dec.com (Steve Muldoon - Correspondent-at-large)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Are we nearing another stock market crash?
Date: 28 Sep 92 14:34:38 GMT
Organization: Digital Equipment Corporation

In article <1992Sep28.035655.15547@unocal.com>, stgprao@st.unocal.COM (Richard Ottolini) writes...
>Perhaps the market is seriously considering Clinton will win
>and is adjusting for the uncertainty of his economic program.

    or...

     Perhaps the market is seriously considering that Bush will win
     and is adjusting for the certainty of his economic (non)program.
                              ^^^^^^^^^
         8^(

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve Muldoon (DEC Educational Services)|   It's an unfinished life that I
                                        |     find lies before me,
    muldoon@books.enet.dec.com          |   An open-ended dream that I
    !decwrl!books.enet!muldoon          |     don't want to wake...
    muldoon%books.enet@decwrl.dec.com   |                 - Kate Wolf
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: bakken@cs.arizona.edu (Dave Bakken)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: The end of media generated recession is close.
Date: 5 Oct 92 20:10:43 GMT
Organization: U of Arizona CS Dept, Tucson

In article <1992Oct5.153159.28076@engage.pko.dec.com> pub@riscee.pko.dec.com (Publius) writes:
>In article <23339@optima.cs.arizona.edu> bakken@cs.arizona.edu (Dave Bakken) writes:

>What's wrong with people being cautious about their spending?
>We have the lowest saving rate among the industrialized nations.
>Don't you think it's time for a change?  Do you really believe 
>we can spend our way into prosperity?  Many consumers have already
>spent to their credit limit.  Do you really expect them to pull us
>out of this recession?  It is true that every post-WW II recovery
>was led by the consumer spending.  But each time as the consumers
>pulled the economy out of the pit, their balance sheet got a little
>worse.  This time around, don't expect them to be there to do their
>part, for they simply can't afford it.  It will take many cold winters
>for them to for them to hide in their caves and rebuild their balance
>sheets.

I don't at all mind consumers being more cautious.  They have
largely lived irresponsibly and beyond their means.  What really
irks me is my firm conclusion that a large part of this consumer
caution is prompted by the news media, who demonstrably tend to be
more liberal than the public at large.  I think that they've
been crying the sky is falling for a year now because they
smell blood and hope they can get a more liberal president.  This is
not some grand conspiracy, but just the aggregate result of individual
journalists.

>Don't ever think that we as an economy can cheat the market.  There
>is no easy way out.  The hand of Adam Smith is fair, and the economic
>sins can only be repaid with sufferings.

Agreed.  For a long time Americans have been paying themselves way too
much in real terms compared with the rest of the world, and we're
starting to pay for it.  And we've been borrowing too much for way
too long, and now the bill is becoming more uncomfortable each year.

--
Dave Bakken                               Internet: bakken@cs.arizona.edu
Dept. of Computer Science; U of Arizona   Voice:    +1 602 621 4098      
Tucson, AZ 85721; USA                     FAX:      +1 602 621 4246
The fact that you're paranoid doesn't prove they're *not* out to get you.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: koziarz@chinet.chi.il.us (Louis Koziarz)
Subject: Re: Are we nearing another stock market crash?
Organization: Chinet - Public Access UNIX
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1992 00:42:10 GMT

>>        The market CAN'T crash anymore.  It can only drop 50 points per
>>        day.  At that rate, you won't be back to 1991 levels for over
>>        a week.  Plenty of bail time.

As you can probably tell by today's activities, this is wrong.  NYSE will
stop _program_ trading after the DJIA swings +/- 50 points (yes this means
positive swings as well!).  Trading on the floor does not stop.  The market
may halt trading in specific issues if trading is out of control, but that
is a different story.  The market can still crash due to a few misinformed
traders starting an avalanche...
-- 
Louis Koziarz
koziarz@chinet.chi.il.us
From: rmo5292@zeus.tamu.edu (Dick O'Leary)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Real-Time Stock Quoters
Date: 2 Oct 92 16:50:00 GMT
Article-I.D.: zeus.2OCT199211500493
Organization: Texas A&M University, Academic Computing Services
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

In article <1992Oct1.141738.2079@netcom.com>, masimo@netcom.com (Michael Maas) writes...
>In article <1992Sep30.163328.1408@guvax.acc.georgetown.edu> jdiorio@guvax.acc.georgetown.edu writes:
>>I need to view real-time quotes (15 minute 
>>delay) continuously.  The only quoters I'm aware of are on Compuserve 
>>but I'm not willing to pay that price.
>     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> 
>You have got to be kidding.  For your 7.95 per month you get unlimited 15 
>minute delayed quotes.  I don't think there is a better deal out there.
> 
>Mike

Aren't there on-line charges as well?  For $12.95 month Prodigy does the same 
thing.  For faster quotes there is a modem service that offers quotes at 
$0.39/minute but that can add up in a hurry....

				-- D
********************************************************************************
Dick O'Leary  rmo5292@tamsigma.bitnet           "Come, we'll walk the path     
              rmo5292@sigma.tamu.edu             That takes us to my home      
                                                 Keep outside the night"        
              Dept. of Geophysics                -A. Banks,P. Gabriel,J. Mayhew
              Texas A&M University               A. Phillips, M. Rutherford    
              77843-3114 (409)690-0871           "Stagnation" (1970)           
********************************************************************************
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: nfs@dynastar (Norbert Schlenker)
Subject: Re: Are we nearing another stock market crash?
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University, Dept. of Computer Science
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1992 16:10:14 GMT

In article <8190123@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM> rauchfuss@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM (Brian Rauchfuss) writes:
>Even if there was a "halt trading" on days that are large drops (which I
>believe has been proposed), you will not have plenty of time to bail.  What
>will happen is the same thing that happens in commodity markets: when a
>commodity market crashes, it drops the maximum amount in the first ten minutes
>of trading every day, and the trading is halted until the next day.  Very few
>of the people who want to bail get to, and the losers sit around worrying until
>tomorrow.  I am told it is one of the most painful experiences known to man.

Yes, there is nothing quite as gutwrenching as being long in a market that
is locked limit down or short when it is locked limit up.  Three days in a
row of that and you are guaranteed an ulcer, since your stops are worthless.
I can't remember days like this since the early 80s, though.  Index futures
in October 1987 came close, but they don't really have limits so it's not
quite as scary (unless you're holding Ultra :).

Norbert
nfs@cs.princeton.edu

From: sjb@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM (Stuart Bobb)
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 19:17:29 GMT
Subject: Re: Car Loan
Organization: Hewlett-Packard, Fort Collins, CO, USA
From: glenm@cbnewsb.cb.att.com (glen.r.mccluskey)
Subject: brokers for currency options?
Keywords: currency option broker
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 18:42:36 GMT


Does anyone know of discount brokers that handle foreign
currency options as traded on the Philadelphia exchange?
I know that Schwab and Quick & Reilly do not.

Linn-Waldock has options but only on futures.

Glen McCluskey
glenm@usl.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: rajeev@cbnewsf.cb.att.com (rajeev.dolas)
Subject: Info wanted on Investment Clubs
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: usa
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1992 20:14:26 GMT


Hello netters,

	I am in the middle of forming an investment club with 5 others and 
	have volunteered to handle the registration/setup process. I have
	ordered the NAIC information booklet but they ran out of their
	Club manual :-(, so I need few tips/pointers to get me going
	till end of October (that's when they will print new manuals).

	1. Should the club be registered as a partnership or as a corporation?
	2. We are not sure about the accounting procedure. 
	   We are debating if we should follow MMF (money market fund)
	   accounting procedure of keeping $1 value per share. Comments?

	Will appreciate other tips as well! Also I am willing to summarize
	if there is enough interest.

	Thanks in advance.

	Raj Dolas.
From: merritt@macro.bu.edu (Sean Merritt)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: How saturated is the market for Windows?
Date: 30 Sep 92 13:32:37 GMT
Organization: Boston University Physics Department
In-reply-to: mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca's message of 30 Sep 92 07:14:15 GMT

In article <1992Sep30.071415.1862@cs.sfu.ca> mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca (Ken Mcdonald) writes:



>   Anyone have numbers on how successful Windows penetration of the IBM/clone
>   market has been?  In particular, out of those machines which have the
>   ability to run windows, how many have already been so equipped, and
>   how many have yet to change over?

This is irrelevant in my opinion. The question to be asking is; Will
Windows NT penetrate the pc market AND the workstation market as
succesfully as Windows has. If the answer is yes(to both) than Microsoft
seems to be selling pretty cheaply at the moment.





--
Sean J. Merritt		         |      Nietzsche che dice?
Dept of Physics Boston University| 	       Boh!	
merritt@budoe.bu.edu		 | 
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: vlue@cadence.com (Vincent Lue)
Subject: shadow stock mutual fund
Organization: Cadence Design Systems
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 22:59:54 GMT

Hi,  Does any one out there know any mutual fund investing in 
     "shadow stocks" ?  I know it is a little bit contradictory.
     Because normally institutions are not interested in these stocks.
     But I do hear the existence of such funds.  Please post or mail
     me any tips.  
     
     Thanks !!

Vincent Lue
Cadence Design System
408-944-7845
From: rlcarr@animato.network23.com (Rich Carreiro)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: OTC uptick?
Distribution: world
X-NewsSoftware: GRn 1.16e (7/4/92) by Mike Schwartz & Michael B. Smith
Date: 30 Sep 92 13:49:37 EDT
Organization: The Other Side of Life

When shorting an OTC stock (specifically, something on the NASDAQ/NMS list),
is there an uptick rule analogous to what the NYSE has?

-- 
Rich Carreiro                                  Home: (401)841-8514
rlcarr@animato.network23.com
uunet.uu.net!animato!rlcarr
From: pub@riscee.pko.dec.com (Publius)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Robin Hood       (Re:  Effects of the U.S. Debt)
Date: 2 Oct 92 19:16:36 GMT
Organization: Digital Equipment Corporation, Maynard MA

In article <23236@optima.cs.arizona.edu> bakken@cs.arizona.edu (Dave Bakken) writes:
>
> ... but it doesn't stop a
>lot of demagogic politicians on the left from pandering to the poor
>and underinformed with the rhetoric of Robin Hood.  Oh, well...

Contrary to the popular belief, Robin Hood of Sherwood Forest 
did NOT rob the rich.  He took the tax payers' money back from
the tax collector (Sheriff of Nuttingham) and fought against
the excessive taxation of King John.
He was the first anti-tax Libertarian ...

Regards,
-- 
-- Publius
Disclaimer: These opinions are mine, all mine, mine alone.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: szabo@techbook.com (Nick Szabo)
Subject: Re: U.S. Bail Out!
Organization: TECHbooks --- Public Access UNIX --- (503) 220-0636
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 11:51:03 GMT

>
>Here is a chart of tax revenues as % of GDP.  Taken from the September
>19th issue of The Economist.  These figures are approximate.
>
>	       1991    1980
>	       ----    ----
>Sweden		52	49
>[various developed countries]
>United States	30	29

Do these figures count state and local taxes?  Total government
spending in the U.S. at all levels is between 45-50% of GNP,
from the various estimates I've seen.

-- 
szabo@techbook.COM  	  Tuesday, November third  ##  Libertarian  $$  vote
Tuesday  ^^ Libertarian  --  change  **  choice && November 3rd @@Libertarian
From: McAldon International Inc. <mcaldon@igc.apc.org>
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Date: 01 Oct 92 20:27 PDT
Subject: Re: Brokerage stocks?
Nf-ID: #R:cdp:1426500269:cdp:1426500271:000:1017
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!mcaldon    Oct  1 20:27:00 1992


|Brokerage stocks are cyclical. Because of the 1991 bull run there are
|a lot of public offerings bringing in revenues. In addition, low
|interest rates cause investors to move money into stocks and bonds
|from money market funds, CD's, and banks. So the stocks are now at the
|peak of their cyclical earning cycle. When interest rates rise again,
|and/or the market declines substantially, their earnings will go down.
|Don Katz                                .         Physical

This makes sense.  Of course the brokers will make money on people
leaving the markets.  I suppose it's too much to ask that some of these
new investors learn how to short:-(DMcKenzie
            
|                        |        definitions-->DEMOCRACY        |
|                        |        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^        |    
|    mcaldon@igc.org     |   A temporary condition, teetering    |
|                        |  between anarchy and a police state   |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca (Ken Mcdonald)
Subject: Re:      Re: Effects of U.S. national debt
Organization: CSS, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 19:08:24 GMT


From a previous article:

>>>
Considering the total short position is less than the total long position,
a crash would DESTROY wealth.  If that what you think redistribution means,
you should buy a dictionary.
 
Maybe you should check to see if that "business" school was accredited,
because you got ripped off.
<<<

Actually, no, the previous poster was holding an entirely defensible point
of view.

Differentiate between wealth, which is capital (eg. factories), knowledge,
infrastructure, and so forth, and money, which is a medium of exchange,
such as stock certificates, dollar bills, etc.

A crash does no destroy a single iota of wealth, since all that has happened
is that the (often largely imaginary) value people attach to money in
its various forms has "disappeared."  All of the factories, knowledge,
etc. are still there.

The confusion following a collapse can often destory real wealth.  For
instance, if a software company goes bankrupt, then the organizatin
(infrastructure) it has built up will dissolve, which, ultimately, will
result in lower future production.  Capital (the organization of the
company) has disappeared.

Nonetheless, a crash can be "good", in the long term, if it redistributes
money in such a manner that people's L
LEGAL holdings (the amount of money they are said to be worth) are
more in line with their real (economic) worth, i.e. tha amount they
can produce.

If you go too far in the other direction (where a very few people have
legal ownership of the vast majority of wealth), you arrive at serfdom or,
at the extreme, slavery.  These economies are not very productive, because
people have little incentive to produce.  (Everything the produce goes
to the aristocracy, so, once they have produced enough to feed themselves
and pay the minimum taxes demanded, why bother?)  More importantly, the
economies are not very pleasant to live in.

The US has been heading in such a direction, as evinced by the growing
number of people who feel that the best they can hope to do, economically,
is stay in the same place.  It would be nice if the administration would
do something about this, but since it probably won't, a major, unpleasant
crash may be the only way to address the issue.

Flame on!

Ken McDonald
mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca
From: rdale@sybase.com (Richard Dale)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Growth Mutual Funds and Fabian Method
Date: 29 Sep 92 20:52:59 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: Sybase

In article <Sep23.222727.49712@yuma.ACNS.ColoState.EDU>,
 ian@candela.ATMOS.ColoState.Edu (Ian Wittmeyer) writes:
> After perusing this group for a few weeks, I have not 
> seen mention of a particular method which I am interested in
> applying to some growth mutual funds for the long term. This 
> method was put forth by Dick Fabian about 10 yrs ago and it 
> deals with using a 39 week running mean to compare with 
> week-to-week (and daily) readings of a mutual fund composite 
> index, as well as a couple other indicators. A relative showed 
> me some info on this and has done well historically, but there 
> is  a fairly non-trivial annual fee for the periodic newsletters
> (not really needed if one calculates his own figures).

I read an article in the AAII Journal recently that showed that for tax-sheltered
accounts (e.g., IRAs) this has been fairly successful.  However, the switches in and out
of the market produce tax consequences that outweigh the extra profit you would make
over a buy-and-hold for the same period.  

Richard Dale - whose opinions are entirely his own, and not his employer's.
rdale@sybase.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: dbk@pslu1.psl.wisc.edu (Don Katz)
Subject: Re: Hulbert (Japan no more?)
Organization: Physical Sciences Lab, University of Wisconsin
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 92 18:49:16 GMT

In article <1992Sep28.233841.9751@pony.Ingres.COM> rion@Ingres.COM  writes:
>It seems a little strange to me that the best way to pick a financial 
>newsletter is to subscribe to another newsletter that rates financial
>newsletters!  Next thing we know there will be a newsletter that rates
>newsletters like Hulbert!  How many levels deep will it get?
>
>It seems analogous to hiring one attorney to help you find one that will
>really represent you.

If you need a really good criminal lawyer, would it be so crazy to
hire an general practice attorney to find the person with the best record and
reputation and arrange for her to take your case?

When you buy a car, do you take a look at Consumer Reports to find out
what they think the best cars are?




-- 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Don Katz                                .         Physical
                                       .- / \ -.      Sciences
University of Wisconsin - Madison   ./'  /+-+\  `\.       Laboratory   E-MAIL