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Date:         Wed, 4 Nov 1992 14:58:59 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Commentary on Russia, Croatia, and Iran, (#788)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
              christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu, 76701.103@compuserve.com

Comments Through the Blur of the Last Three Days of US Elections

I must tell you I have been a passionate student of US Presidential
politics, and as pointed out before, have twice participated in
campaigns, so as the last weekend of the campaign dawned, the rest of
the world went to a back burner, where I could hear and see what was
happening, but only as a blur, with a few murmered words here and
there.

Without looking at the RFE/RL digests of yesterday and the day
before, these are the events that crept through the intense focus I
was giving the US vote, have given every presidential election night
since 1968 (only 1980 was rather boring, and I did not stay up late
that night!) my complete attention for 8-10 hours. So, I tend to lose
track of other events during the last days of a campaign. But, a few
crept through.

I heard that North Korea was "accused" of shipping 100 SCUD missiles
to Iran, also rumored to be acquiring tactical nuclear weapons from
Kyrgyzastan and Kazakhstan, and I recall Sunday night thinking long
and hard about Iran again attempting to be a power in the central
Asisian area. IF both those alleged facts are correct, it seems to be
a new pressure on the CIS, and most, I believe, with Russia and
Ukraine, coming from Iran. There seems to be a trickle of information
that would indicate Iran was re-arming after the Iraq-Iran war, only
with considerably heavier and more sophisticated weaponry secured
from various CIS states. In addition, I recall recent material from
RFE/RL about sub sales from Russia to Iran. It seems that there
weren't many sold, but still, this adds a new dimension to Iran's
miltary capability. This could be a possible alarming situation, fed
inadvertantly or deliberately by certain CIS countries. Iran HAS been
labelled a terroristic state, and it would seem this should be mor
carefully watched.

Yesterday, Croatia was reported on NPR to have closed its borders to
refugees, because of the Jajce refugees - some 30-40,000 by some
accounts - from north-central Bosnia. Despite UN pleading, the
Croatians reportedly stated that they are saturated with refugees
from Bosnia (maybe as many as one million people) and they will not
take any more. What is to be done about those CAUSING the refugee
problem?

On Monday, Russian President Yeltsin stated that the Ingushetia and
Ossetian areas of Russia were under a state of emergency until at
least the end of November, due to heavy fighting over the weekend
betwen groups I still do not understand completely. I know the
Russian army is involved now, but who was fighting before the
declaration against whom is still not clear to a mind that only heard
this report once. This use of force may be a new phase in Russian
political behavior, because I believe they are still involved in
Abkhaz, Moldova and Dushanbe in Tajikistan too, so the Russian and
CIS forces may be getting stretched rather thin.

I recall also only briefly scanning an article that suggested that
Civic Union and Yeltsin had worked out a deal that would keep Gaidar
in power, but sweep Foreign Minister Kozyrev, 6 other ministers and
the state secretary out of office. It seems that more political
turmoil will be occurring within Russia even before the Congress of
People's Deputies convenes in less than four weeks.

It would appear that more turmoil and political change is probable in
Russia, central Asia, and central Europe, with a chunk of it probably
not being very positive. VMS
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