From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 1993 21:37:15 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 008, 01/08/93
10.7 FLUX=132.9  90-AVG=139        SSN=144      BKI=2122 2223  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=2.6E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3222 2233  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=019,006,012,014,018,018,017,024   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.5   @ 0127UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.8   @ 2321UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2140UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1935UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0905UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 0423UT   BOUTF-MIN=55396NT @ 1946UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1852UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 2359UT  G7-AVG=+076,+028,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1853UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 2248UT  G6-AVG=+094,-002,+037
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,145,150;SESC:140,145,150 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,012/015,015,010
    KFCST=3334 3333 3343 3333  27DAY-AP=006,006   27DAY-KP=3111 2222 2001 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0635-0735UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. A couple of B-class
       subflares occurred within Region 7394 (S18W19) which displayed
       significant growth. New Region 7398 (N06E42) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7394 and 7386 (S05W25) may produce isolated
       C-class subflares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Active periods are possible
       during the first two days due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 09 jan-11 jan

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 jan-11 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/35/20
                        Minor Storm           10/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Propagation over the high and polar latitude paths
       improved to near-normal early in the day and has remained fair
       to good since then.  Middle latitude paths experienced good
       propagation.  Low latitude paths observed good to very good
       propagation and should continue to see the same.  Minor
       night-sector signal instabilities are possible over the next 48
       hours (until approximately 10 January) due to possible coronal
       hole effects.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S05W25  184  0230 CSO  07  012 BETA
7387  S23W21  180  0090 EAO  11  018 BETA-GAMMA
7389  S20W03  162  0010 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7391  S12E27  132  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7394  S18W20  179  0060 DSO  07  023 BETA
7395  N12E46  113  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7397  N10W78  237  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7398  N07E43  116  0020 CRO  05  007 BETA
7392  N14W32  191                    PLAGE
7393  S20W39  198                    PLAGE
7396  S11E16  143                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 JANUARY TO 11 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7370 S09   047


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1017 1020 1023 7394  S17W12 B6.9  SF    460



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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