HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: cheese@next05wor.wam.umd.edu (Jason Steinhorn)
Subject: Re: RE: SPORTS BETTING
Organization: Workstations at Maryland, University of Maryland, College Park
Date: Mon, 6 Apr 1992 18:36:58 GMT

In article <rpf2iINN1dk@agate.berkeley.edu> escozzlab@berkeley.edu (Eugene  
Shekhtman) writes:
> Here's some more food for thought about the "informed".  A friend of  
mine
> runs one of those 800-number sports betting consulting services.  He is
> doing great: every day Federal Express brings him packets and packets of
> cash from his clients.  However, every day he has to make over 200 phone
> calls to solicit new clients!  I asked him about it, and he said "in  
this
> business, you just can't hope to keep a client for very long".  He, of
> all the people, should definitely have the key information, right?   
Guess
> again: none of the "inside information" that he can obtain is any good
> for consistent handicapping!  The other day I saw him sitting in his
> office trying to even out the numbers of people to whom he gave OPPOSITE
> recommendations!!!  

You say after this that you don't think he is any worse or better for what  
he is doing; well, I can tell you one thing...he's at least breaking the  
law.  It's illegal to solicit clients in this way with contradictory  
information, knowing that half of them will be given correct info and half  
not.

Aside from that, I think that there is a such thing an an 'informed'  
bettor.  But, I believe, this person is more informed not as to what will  
happen in the game, but as to how the line was made and how this relates  
to the game.  When a sport's book makes a line, he does so based on his  
attempt to lure half his market in one direction and half his market in  
another.  For example, lets say the Washington Redskins just won 11 games  
in a row, and are now playing the Colts (hypothetical situation).   
Perhaps, statistically speaking, the line should only be about 21 points;  
but, with the Skins coming off such a great start and the Colts being so  
bad :-), everybody and their mother will be betting on Da' Skins.  The  
line might be raised a few points to lure some of those bettors to side  
with the Colts, and hence even out the books (no pun intended).  An  
informed bettor might realize this, and bet the underdog.  The sport's  
book doesn't mind giving up the extra points, he only wants his 5 or 10  
percent (depending on the bet being placed).  Granted, the informed bettor  
is doing no more than half of the uninformed bettors, but he can do this  
consistently.

    ____  _                                   
   (      \)     ___   ___         ___             Jason Steinhorn
    \      \____ \__)  \__)   /\   \__)         University of Maryland         
     \____/ \   \/\____/\____/ _)__/\____         cheese@wam.umd.edu

"Last year at this time I was in Las Vegas having a furious arguement over
what I considered to be an odd number"
                                        -- Steven Wright
From: keegan@rosebud.crd.ge.com (james g keegan jr)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: hold `em information
Date: 17 Apr 92 00:45:30 GMT
Reply-To: keegan@crd.ge.com (james g keegan jr)
Organization: T.S.A.K.C.


i need to do a quick-study of hold `em, vegas rules. anything i
could grab over the net or via ftp would be super; otherwise
books will do.

please send recommendations via email.

thanks.

--
----
charter member   ...   T.S.A.K.C.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: cxxh@cco.caltech.edu (Chris H. Hall)
Subject: Re: SPORTS BETTING
Organization: California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
Date: Fri, 10 Apr 1992 14:30:16 GMT

wilding@cs.utexas.edu (Matthew Wilding) writes:

>Mark Savey (in reaction to me, I think):
>>Sounds to me like you belive in statistics, but not in programs that
>>can use soundly use them.  You are not the only one to use them!  ...

>I don't understand what you're getting at here.  Are you arguing with
>something I said?  Does anyone not believe in mathemematics?

>I guess no rec.gambler is going to respond to the original point I
>made at the beginning of this thread: How few "informed" betters in
>the sports book market need there be to make it impossible to beat the
>sports book's vig?  I think very few, and that sports book bets are
>bad bets for EVERYONE who is using publically-held information despite
>the fact that the nearly half who win each week will argue with this
>contention.  Don't we have an economist who can answer this for us?

Well, I'm not an economist but I can give you an answer if you will
tell me how much money is bet on each side of football game?

Chris Hall
From: mike@banana.fedex.com (Mike Bearden)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: elko, nevada
Keywords: elko
Date: 16 Apr 92 18:48:26 GMT
Distribution: rec
Organization: Federal Express Corp.





  there are some cheap weekend junkets into elko, nevada.  before i
  heard of these ads, i had never heard of the place.  can someone please
  tell me about the casinos/gambling there?  I am particularly
  interested in blackjack, i.e. # of decks, do they offer any single deck 
  games, minimum bets, etc.

  thanks in advance for the info.

  mike
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: kolt@quads.uchicago.edu (Matt K/Gonzo)
Subject: Re: Blackjack strategy
Keywords: read, the, faql
Reply-To: kolt@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations
Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1992 15:41:26 GMT

In article <1992Apr17.010500.5856@leland.Stanford.EDU> rishi@leland.Stanford.EDU (Rishi Varma) writes:
>Just doing a survey...assuming you can't count worth shit...how many of you
>would draw a card in the following situations:
>
>i) You have a 16 (3 or more cards) and dealer shows 10.
I'd take a card, almost all the time. (cept when I'm looking at 2,2,4,4,4)
>ii) You have a 12 and dealer shows 5.
I'd never take a card.
>iii) You have a 17 (3 or more cards) and dealer shows A.
Hard 17? Are you kidding? Never, if counting, I guess there's a crazy outside
chance. Blech. 
>Thanks.
You're welcome, it looks like you need the help.

-- 
Matt Koltnow   B0 t-- w- c+ g+ k s+ e r- p     "That's the way
Email: kolt@midway.uchicago.edu                 Lady Luck dances.
Ntalk: kolt@ellis.uchicago.edu  (or @quads)     Roll the Bones." --N. Peart
Boycott the Imperial Palace.           10x odds on 25c craps at Union Plaza.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: rishi@leland.Stanford.EDU (Rishi Varma)
Subject: Re: Blackjack strategy
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Fri, 17 Apr 92 01:05:00 GMT

Just doing a survey...assuming you can't count worth shit...how many of you
would draw a card in the following situations:

i) You have a 16 (3 or more cards) and dealer shows 10.
ii) You have a 12 and dealer shows 5.
iii) You have a 17 (3 or more cards) and dealer shows A.

Thanks.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: jacko@cbnewsl.cb.att.com (Jacko)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: "Diamonds are Forever"
Date: 17 Apr 92 15:45:03 GMT
Organization: AT&T

In article <596@svcs1.UUCP> twc@svcs1.UUCP (Ted Chan) writes:
>
>Umm, wouldn't an experienced craps player (with some common sense knowledge
>of stats) come to the same conclusion as the computer in the movie
>_War Games_ - namely that there is no point in playing this game?  (Assume
>here for the sake of argument that the only goal here is making money and
>further assume that the die aren't loaded...)

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I think you don't understand
much about the gambling mentality.  Gambling is the triumph of hope over
logic, and oftentimes the winning out of desperation over logic and reality.

Getting back to the idea of an "experienced" craps player.

An experienced craps player, like an experienced card counter, knows that the
house (or player) advantage is not statistically significant in the short run.
So, he takes a hit-and-run approach to the game.  Brings only a few units, and
either loses them or tries to catch a hot streak and multiply his buy-in by
a factor of 10 or 20.  I think most people perceive the utility function for
money to be fairly parabolic, so many people (even those knowledgeable about
probability) will take a shot at turning $50 into $1000.

The problem starts when even a "disciplined" or "experienced" 
player gets emotional over some losses, and starts to chase.

Just as an aside, I think that many of the "heat" problems that math-weenie
card counters run into stem from their lack of appreciation of the casino
mentality.  Rational people don't go into a casino *expecting* to make money.
This kind of attitude just pegs you as a counter.  Loosen up a bit and the
whole thing flows a lot smoother.

Jacko.
From: jsp@uts.amdahl.com (James Preston)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: "Diamonds are Forever"
Date: 15 Apr 92 17:13:40 GMT
Reply-To: jsp@pls.amdahl.com
Organization: Amdahl Corporation, Sunnyvale CA


I watched "Diamonds are Forever" again last night.  Has anyone else noticed
that the scene at the craps table is totally bogus?  Yeah, I know, you
were probably too busy watching Plenty O'Toole, the original Hot Babe(tm).
Still, everything is so laughably wrong that I can't believe that they
didn't do it on purpose, but I wonder why.

First of all, it looks to me like Plenty makes a bet for Bond (at least
she takes HIS money and puts it on the pass line), but then she gets to
roll.  Then, after establishing a point, on her next roll the stickman
clearly says she "craps out; a loser" and she passes the dice.  Since
when does rolling craps mean you pass the dice?  And she passes them to
Bond, who is on her RIGHT!  Finally, there is that spiel that Bond makes
to impress Plenty with his knowledge of the game.  I suppose it all makes
sense, if you stretch a little, but it's certainly not what an experienced
craps player would do, and it most certainly could not have won him so
much money on one roll (he bet all the hardways, the eleven, either a buy 
or a place bet on all the numbers, and some other stuff; and then it
sounded like his next roll hit the point).

Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest.  You can go back to discussing
blackjack counting and betting nickels on toy horses again.

--James Preston

Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: stantz@sgi.com (Mark Stantz)
Subject: Re: Pai Gow Poker
Keywords: 2.5, not
Organization: Silicon Graphics, Inc.
Date: Thu, 16 Apr 92 02:47:10 GMT

In article <1992Apr15.155206.6331@midway.uchicago.edu> kolt@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>In article <1992Apr15.072014.22132@shinobu.sgi.com> stantz@sgi.com (Mark Stantz) writes:
>>Keep track of what your average bet is; the house PC is exactly 2.5%, so
>>figure out how much you're willing to pay for the privilege of playing each 
>>hand, multiply by forty, and the rest is all hocus pocus.
>Well, Mark, your strategy is sort of interesting, but it seems to me that there
>are easier ways to fool the pit. But I like your style. :-) On the other hand,
>I don't like your math! My raw guesstimate of the house advantage for PGP is about 6-7%, since you lose your full bet when you lose, you win 95% of your bet
>when you win, AND it's not an even game: you lose a tie in the small hand. 

	Okay, it's not exactly 2.5%, but I'm not convinced it's worse than
roulette.  Here's a quick perl script:

-------------------------
#!/usr/local/bin/perl
#
# Quick Pai-Gow poker simulator
#
#  Mark Stantz, stantz@sgi.com, 4/92.
#
# We start with $1M and simulate (well, not really) .2M hands of Pai-Gow.  
# Since no money changes hands during a push, we don't model pushes at all.
# Nor do we model that the dealer wins ties in the small hand.  Actually,
# we don't do much of anything.  No checking for bankrupcy, nothing like
# that.  Good thing they don't let me work on ATC software.
#

$trials=200000;                                         # 200K hands
$money=1000000;                                         # 1 Megabuck currently
$start=$money;                                          # 1 Megabuck originally

print "Pai-Gow Poker -- Quick Simulation.\n\n";
print "Playing $trials hands of \$5 per hand.  A 5% (\$.25) commission\n";
print "is paid on winners.\n\n";
print "Started with $money dollars.\n";

foreach (1..$trials) {                                  # Play the hands
  (int(rand(2))) ? $money += 4.75 : $money -= 5.0;      # 5% commission on wins
}


$loss = $start - $money;                                # loss = money lost
$cph = $loss / $trials;                                 # avg $ loss per hand
$cpct = $cph / 5.00 * 100.0;                            # loss as % of bet

print "Finished with $money dollars.\n";
print "Net loss $loss dollars.\n";
print "Average loss per hand: $cph\n";
print "Percent loss per bet (ie, disadvantage): $cpct\n";
exit(0);
-------------------------
Pai-Gow Poker -- Quick Simulation.

Playing 200000 hands of $5 per hand.  A 5% ($.25) commission
is paid on winners.

Started with 1000000 dollars.
Finished with 979728.75 dollars.
Net loss 20271.25 dollars.
Average loss per hand: 0.10135624999999999
Percent loss per bet (ie, disadvantage): 2.0271249999999998
-------------------------


	200K hands is a reasonable sample.  I don't see how the dealer taking
pushes in the small hand could be worth more than a tenth a percent.  My 2.5%
figure looks like a reasonable ceiling to me.  Of course, I am rotten at math.

	-Mark
From: COBARRUVIAS@ASD2.JSC.NASA.GOV
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: WANTED: VEGAS TRAVEL MAY 9!
Date: 17 Apr 92 13:31:58 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: NASA/JSC

Sorry for the repost for those in the Houston area!...	

I've been given a ticket to the Norris/Taylor fight May 9 in Las Vegas. Besides
wanting to gamble a bit, I would love to see the fight. 

I am looking for either a flight/hotel package for the weekend or preferably
just airfare for Saturday with no hotel. Any ideas where I can get something
cheap and on such short notice? Anyone have any comp tickets they are willing
to sell? Thanks for any hints! By the way I am in Houston, Texas.
From: bhoughto@hopi.intel.com (Blair P. Houghton)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: <None>
Date: 12 Apr 92 02:10:44 GMT
Organization: Intel Corp, Chandler, AZ

In article <1992Apr1.082017.3454@iscsvax.uni.edu> brandt3116@iscsvax.uni.edu writes:
>Hello!  I'm new here, and I see you all talking about cards and casinos, but I
>wonder where the dogtrack enthusiasts are?!?
>I've been a teller for 6? years at the local Greyhound Park, and would
>absolutely relish showering you with my inside view of that particular
>recreation....
>Any takers?

Confirm some theories for me (two are used by some of
my friends to make fairly decent bets at the track,
and one is my own):

1.  Bet heavy dogs on inside slots.

2.  Bet the dogs that look spunky before the race.

3.  Racing dogs make decent pets.

				--Blair
				  "Guess which one is mine.
				   Hint:  I now have a two-dog
				   backyard and about 900 sq. mi.
				   of indian reservation across
				   the street."
From: bi011@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Bill King)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: BJ:  High stakes in Atlantic City
Date: 14 Apr 92 00:07:29 GMT
Article-I.D.: usenet.1992Apr14.000729.26302
Reply-To: bi011@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Bill King)
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)


In a previous article, TRADER@cup.portal.com (Paul Vincent McGinnis) says:

>Hmmm... the Usenet user who posted the question about high table limits
>was from Harvard University... maybe Harvard people can afford $1000 or
>more table limits...
>Paul McGinnis / TRADER@cup.portal.com

Also, don't some casinos have "high roller" type sections for the
big stakes. For example, when Leonard Tose, one time Eagles owner,
lost between 750,000 and 1.5 million in a weekend at the tables, somehow
I don't think it was on the regular floor....
Bill
-- 
You should, have made it a point, to get BOTH of them Daddy! If Sting has
to carry me, on his back down that aisle, if he has to DRAG me in a wagon,
I'm breathing, ya understand? YOU SHOULD HAVE GOT IT DONE! It's violence for
the sake of violence & now I will turn it around to MY violence! ==Dusty Rhodes
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: D1SAR@AKRONVM.UAKRON.EDU (Steve Rimar)
Subject: Horse racing
Organization: The University of Akron
Date: Tue, 7 Apr 1992 16:23:37 GMT

I have two questions for the handicapiers out there.
1. What are some of your methods for selecting and betting the ponies.
2. What is doseage and how is it calculated and used?
 
Thanks to everyone that replies.
 
Steve
From: mbn@fps.com (Mike Northam)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: elko, nevada
Date: 17 Apr 92 15:21:15 GMT
Reply-To: mbn@fps.com
Distribution: na
Organization: Cray Research Superservers, Inc., Beaverton, Oregon
In-reply-to: mike@banana.fedex.com's message of 16 Apr 92 18:48:26 GMT
cc: mike@banana.fedex.com

>>>>> "mike" == Mike Bearden <mike@banana.fedex.com> writes:

mike>   there are some cheap weekend junkets into elko, nevada.  before i
mike> heard of these ads, i had never heard of the place.  can someone
mike> please tell me about the casinos/gambling there?  I am particularly
mike> interested in blackjack, i.e. # of decks, do they offer any single
mike> deck games, minimum bets, etc.

This is probably a FAQ candidate (Steve?).  It's been a while since I've
been to Elko, and if anyone has any updates on this, let me know.

Casino Express (800) 258-8800 or (800) 654-0888 in Canada, owned by the
people who run the Elko Red Lion Inn, runs numerous junkets to Elko, NV.
They own at least one Boeing 737 aircraft, and charter several others on
weekends.  They fly from several western cities (Seattle, Bellingham,
Spokane, Portland, Eugene, Salem, San Jose, Fresno, Modesto, Santa Maria,
Ontario, Denver, Salt Lake City, etc.) and have multiple-day junkets from
Canadian and midwest cities (Minneapolis, Mason City, etc.)

The casino has BJ, single and double deck, Northern Nevada rules (H17, DD
10/11 only).  $5 minimum for single deck.  Penetration varies with the
dealer, so there apparently isn't a house rule.  There is no heat
whatsoever, so 10:1 spreads are no problem.  During the 'gambling frenzy'
of the last few moments before the airport bus departs, *massive* spreads
are possible--I've gone from $5 to $200 (40:1) no problem.  All the
tables are *always* full, so two rounds of seven is all you'll see on the
single deck.  There's also craps, roulette, and a small sports book.
Keno for the truly adventuresome :-).

From Portland, the junket cost is $49 for a 12-hour turnaround flight,
you have to show $300 in cash to board the flight.  Since it's a charter
flight, there is a nice party atmosphere on board the plane. Your play is
rated, and presumably, if you don't gamble enough, you might be barred
from a future flight, though this hasn't been a problem for any of my
friends.

Disclaimer:  I'm only a satisfied customer.
--
Mike Northam    mbn@fps.com   Home:123 11' 40"W   45 37' 14"N
(503) 641-3151 (work) (503) 324-1831 (home) {cray|sun|ucsd}!fpssun!mbn
We are now Cray Research Superservers, Inc. (RIP FPS Computing)
"Yeah, or they relieve their anxiety by tearing out the throats of two-bit
quacks expounding psychobabble just to hear themselves talk." Adam, the
eccentric chef, explains how to deal with tension on Northern Exposure
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers)
Subject: In LV for the weekend!
Date: Fri, 10 Apr 92 23:36:26 GMT
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest) 

I'm off to LV in a couple of hours.  If anyone wants to make contact,
I'm at the Mirage from 4/10 to 4/13.  Give me a call if you like...
-- 
Michael Zimmers                                    |  Home:  408 996 1984
SoftHelp                                           |  Work:  408 996 1965
Software Solutions for Open Systems                |  Data:  408 996 1974
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: lmiller@aero.org (Lawrence H. Miller)
Subject: Re: Sports betting
Organization: The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, CA
Date: Tue, 7 Apr 1992 20:36:39 GMT

In article <rueb.702495956@aries> rueb@aries.scs.uiuc.edu (Christopher J. Rueb) writes:
>about my post (lmiller@aero.org (Lawrence H. Miller)):
>
>           Let me get this straight.  You have a system that hits
>       at 67% over many years, that you believe is correct, that
>      does not appear to take up more than a few hours a week, and
>     you no longer bet on football games?  Come on if this was real
>     you should be a rich rich man.


	Gee, you're right, why am I working for a living when I could
	be winning thousands of dollars a week?  But what would the
	expected payoff really be?  It is difficult to find someone
	who would consistently deal with bets of more than $1,000 per
	game.  Let's assume 4 games/week, 10 weeks of betting, $1,000
	per game, 67% winning percentage: 40 games, win 27, lose 13,
	so that's 14,000 win for the season.  This makes me a "rich
	rich man"?  Should we go to 10K per game?  140K per year
	is a nice annuity, but even that doesn't make you a "rich
	rich man."  Like I said, it paid my way through graduate school.


>     I again suggest that you post
>      your selections next year along with the other system players
>      and we can see.  True one year is not the total truth but it
>     is a good indication.

	Nor are predictions based on parameter weights from the mid
	'70s.  I mentioned that I haven't run this system for several
	years.  There was sufficient information given that anyone
	with a few years worth of data and a PC can develop a similar
	model.

	Please understand the purpose of my post--to point out that
	it is possible to consistently beat the point spread in PRO
	FOOTBALL based on a linear regression model.  There are
	underlying assumptions about such models, and it would appear
	that pro football, at least from the mid '70s to the mid
	'80s, conformed well to that model.  It may very well be the
	case that it doesn't today; college football at that time
	didn't now fare well at all.

>     I know for a fact that correlating won-loss
>     records into covering point spreads is not a winning proposition.

	All I can say is what I said earlier, that the single parameter
	that accounted for the largest percentage of variance in the data
	was won-loss record.  Where did this "fact" come from that you know?
	
-- 
Larry Miller
The Aerospace Corporation
lmiller@aero.org
310-336-5597
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: cheese@wam.umd.edu (Fletch F. Fletch)
Subject: Re: Atlantic City
Organization: University of Maryland at College Park
Date: Thu, 16 Apr 1992 16:29:35 GMT

Actually, Trump Plaza has been a little bit more lenient in their cutting off
large amounts from their shoe.  Last time I was there they were only cutting off
about 2 decks (33%).  I've found this to be one of the best games in town, for
counters and non-counters alike... Plus, they promised at least one $5 table at
all times.  Of course, that might be just what you find **ONE** $5 table.
Good Luck,


    ____  _                                   
   (      \)     ___   ___         ___             Jason Steinhorn
    \      \____ \__)  \__)   /\   \__)         University of Maryland         
     \____/ \   \/\____/\____/ _)__/\____         cheese@wam.umd.edu
Newsgroups: rec.gambling