From: hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU (Brad Hernlem)
Subject: Israel, Hezbollah wise enough not to engage in all-out war
Reply-To: hernlem@chess.ncsu.EDU (Brad Hernlem)
Organization: North Carolina State University
Date: Mon, 16 Nov 1992 13:19:55 GMT


reposted from soc.culture.lebanon:

[ Article cross-posted without permission ]
analysis
	BEIRUT, Lebanon (UPI) -- Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah have
proved once again that they are wise enough to avoid a costly war that
could torpedo the Mideast peace talks and destablize Lebanon.
	The rivals this week were willing to respect terms of the so-called 
``old game'' by limiting their attacks and counterattacks to traditional
battlefields in southern Lebanon.
	According to reports Sunday, Israel has begun to pull out the
military reinforcements it rushed to its self-imposed ``security zone''
early this week. The deployment initially triggered fears of an Israeli
military incursion to uproot Hezbollah.
	For his part, Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said firing
Soviet-made Katyusha rockets was not part of his group's plans, although
he also pledged to use all available means to deter Israeli aggression.
Nasrallah made it clear that his group would resort to the Katyushas if
``our land is scorched, our homes are destroyed and people hurt.''
	Tension in southern Lebanon eased when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak
Rabin admitted that Hezbolah fired a Katyusha against northern Israel 
``in reaction to our activities.''
	Rabin was referring to an Israeli air raid last Sunday on Hezbollah
positions in the southwestern Bekaa valley during which four Muslim
guerrillas were killed and six others wounded, triggering a fresh wave
of violence.
	The U.S. and European ambassadors in Beirut, alarmed by the
deterioration of the last several weeks, warned against ``great dangers
of miscalculations'' that would affect the Mideast peace negotiations,
prompting Lebanese President Elias Hrawi to urge Syria interfere to
restrain Hezbollah.
	U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker has reportedly asked Hrawi to use his
influence to stop all military operations including Katyusha attacks and
disarm all gunmen in southern Lebanon. Crocker stopped short of naming
Hezbollah.
	A Beirut-based European diplomat who engaged in efforts to calm the
situation in southern Lebanon said on the eve of every round of peace
talks, Iran tries through Hezbollah to assert its presence in the Middle
East arena.
	The diplomat said although Damascus can neutralize Hezbollah
militarily in a very short time, it can neither wipe out Iran's
political presence in Lebanon nor jeopardize its own ties with Tehran.
	On the other hand, he said Israel cannot afford to ruin its peace
negotiations with Lebanon.
	``If the Israelis occupy more Lebanese territory with the aim of
accelerating a peace treaty with Lebanon, they would only force the
Lebanese negotiators to withdraw from the peace talks,'' the diplomat
said.
	``This would be a grave mistake. It is definitely not in the
interests of the Israelis,'' he said, adding Israel should be aware that
any military adventure at this time will only weaken the peace process.
	The diplomat said Israel must achieve peace and security with its
Arab neighbors through peaceful means and should not expect much help
from Washington.
	``It is true that President-elect Bill Clinton is a staunch supporter
of Israel. But it is equally true that he has to reduce the financial
aid to the Jewish state in order to face his country's internal
recession,'' the diplomat said.
Xref: sparky talk.politics.mideast:22241 soc.culture.german:8314