From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 07:22:18 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 007, 01/07/93
10.7 FLUX=130.6  90-AVG=139        SSN=127      BKI=2315 2334  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B3.3     FLU1=3.3E+06  FLU10=9.9E+03  PKI=2324 3443  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=017,028,009,075,014,036,031,042   DEV-AVG=031 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.6   @ 0855UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 0108UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.5
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0100UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0435UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1615UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 0932UT   BOUTF-MIN=55386NT @ 2101UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1950UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 1143UT  G7-AVG=+080,+027,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1947UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 2146UT  G6-AVG=+098,-003,+036
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,145;SESC:135,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,015,015/012,015,015
    KFCST=2333 3322 3334 3333  27DAY-AP=011,006   27DAY-KP=1224 2433 3111 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1013-1513UTC;**SWEEP:IV=2@0855;**SWEEP:IV=2@1237-2037UTC;
          **SWEEP:II=1@0855UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7386 (S05W12) produced a
       C2.6/1N flare at 07/0855Z which was associated with a minor
       Type II sweep and a significant Type IV sweep. This region
       displayed no significant changes in size or structure. The same
       was true of Region 7387 (S23W09). New Regions 7396 (S12E27) and
       7397 (N11W62) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Isolated C-class subflaring may occur within Regions 7386
       and 7387.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. High latitude minor to major storm
       conditions began after 07/0900Z and persisted through the end
       of the UT day.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Periods of active levels may
       occur during the final two days due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 08 jan-10 jan

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 jan-10 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/35
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/40
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitudes.  High and polar latitudes suffered minor
       signal degradation, most notably during the local night sectors
       due to enhanced periods of geomagnetic and auroral activity.
       Similar conditions are expected for the next 72 hours.  Paths
       crossing the northerly middle latitudes could also experience
       minor signal degradation during the local night sectors.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S05W12  184  0280 CKO  07  014 BETA
7387  S23W09  181  0130 DAO  08  014 BETA
7391  S10E37  135  0060 CAO  10  004 BETA
7393  S20W26  198  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7394  S17W08  180  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7395  N11E57  115  0050 CSO  08  003 BETA
7396  S11E29  143  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7397  N10W63  235  0030 CRO  04  004 BETA
7389  S17E09  163                    PLAGE
7392  N14W19  191                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 JANUARY TO 10 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7370 S09   047


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0828 0855 0937 7386  S08W01 C2.6  1N    250        II/IV
 0831 0831 0831                          100
 0852 0852 1013                          150
 1237      2037                                        IV


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
07/ 0828     0855     0937       S08W01   LDE    C2.6   69  1  2
07/B1237             A2037                RSP                  2
07/ 2034     2115     2240       S11E38   LDE    C1.1  126


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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