From: thornley@cs.umn.edu (David H. Thornley)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Value of Stats
Date: 28 Jul 92 17:36:43 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, CSci dept.

In article <Bs3u7v.523@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.uwaterloo.ca (David Johnson) writes:
>In article <3831@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:
>
>>How does it help to look at *lots* of biased reports?  They're all still
>>biased.  They aren't independent observations, either.
>
>Do you read the newspaper for anything other than stats? Do you listen to the
>radio?  Do you watch TV.  If you answer ye to any of these my next question
>is why.  If you think that all reports are biased and can't be trusted then
>why the heck do you listen, read or watch them.
>
Play-by-play reports are generally fairly accurate, except of course that
the radio announcers are free to make up pitch type.  TV shows stuff.  Not
everything, that would be too much to ask for.  Newspapers are generally
fairly accurate on what they can be checked on.  Newspaper columnists are
generally not to be trusted on anything subjective, and this applies to the
Metro section every bit as much as the Sports section.

>Also extremely biased reports are mostly from media in the home town who
>really get to know the players well.  Get reports from different areas.

So we have two classes of reports:  biased and uninformed.

>Also in your local newspaper learn about the writers and learn who can be
>trusted and who can't.  Who can get the story correct and who can't.  Why do
>so many people not trust the media and assume they are all idiots who only
>write what they want whether true or not.  I will admit that some media
>people are idiots and shouldn't be trusted so don't listen to these people.
>Rather than assume the media is wrong why don't you look at the media's
>point of view and see if there is anything that you can observe to back up
>or shoot down the media's thoughts.
>
I've been on the other side of newspaper stories.  If the newspaper is
sympathetic, they print a reasonable account.  If not, they will print
something without challengeable factual errors that has very little to
do with the actual events.

In some cases, I can get to the other side of the story and check out the
journalism.  I can't do this for sports columnists.  I don't have any
sources in the Twins' clubhouse.  All I can do is read the columnists
and such, and they all say stupid things from time to time, or predict
something that doesn't happen.

The media's point of view is that they need attention, and are responsible
for what they say only in a limited sense.  As George Bernard Shaw pointed
out, the media are the major fact-finding organizations who have nothing
to lose if they get things wrong.

>
>If you are 100% sure then why should you ignore it.  The value of the attitude
>also depends on the team.  If the team already has a good attitude then 
>bringing in a player who has been known to be a bit of a problem but is a
>quality player on the field may be worth it.  If the team has a bad attitude
>then trading away a little more quality for a good attitude may also be worth
>it.  If you want me to put a number on it I can't.
>
So what is an attitude favorable to winning games?  Right now, I'm not
interested in saying that Hrbek's attitude is worth 5 runs a year; all
I want to know is whether his attitude affects his value, if any effect
is small or large, and whether the effect is positive or negative.
If you can tell me how to judge this, I'll be happy.  If you can't tell
me how to judge a player's attitude, or can't give any good reason why
the attitude is good, I see no reason to consider it.

Should a player go out to have fun, or should he focus on winning or
losing?  Is a player who cracks jokes after a loss a good or bad thing?
Is it better to keep the clubhouse atmosphere loose or serious?  Is a
veteran star who works really hard more likely to inspire the rookie to
his best or to push him into a muscle strain?  Is insisting on playing
with pain good or bad?  I can easily see both answers to all of these
questions, depending on circumstances.  I don't know how to answer them
even in an individual case.

David Thornley
"The Prince must not rely on being loved, for that may cease if he gets
only two hits an a LCS." - Niccolo Machiavelli
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball