Organization: Central Michigan University
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.seasia-l
Date:         Mon, 23 Nov 1992 07:52:56 EST
From:         Elliott Parker <3ZLUFUR@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
Subject:      TH: Coalition under pressure

=======================  Forwarded  Message  ===========================
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 92 20:23:02+0700
From: Kamol Hengkietisak <kamol@ipied.tu.ac.th>
Subject: Bangkok Post Nov 23: Chuan coalition on rocking boat

BAngkok Post Nov 23: Coalition govt under pressure
THE Chuan administration is going through an unsettling period
less than a month after delivering its policy statement. Policy
differences within the coalition have emerged and the possibility
of a no-confidence motion against the Government looms large.

This week will be crucial for the five-party coalition as its
leaders knuckle down to clear up the differences while the
Opposition top guns meet to work out their censure strategy.

Meanwhile, waiting in the wings are elements of the former
power-holders who are prepared -- every now and then -- to come
out with public statements to test the public reaction over the
performance of the government.

On paper at least, it appears that the coalition is plagued with
differences it cannot shake off. But Opposition and government
sources agree that differences over policy may not be as serious
as imagined; that compromise is possible.

But the Opposition believes that the current scandal regarding
alleged stock manipulation is potentially more devastating.

"Conflicts within the coalition regarding the election of
provincial governors, amendment to the Islamic law and the
National Agricultural Farm Council are problems which can be
solved through compromise," says Chart Pattana Party secretary
general Prachuab Chaiyasarn.

"But one problem where the coalition needs help is the stock
market fiasco. The government needs help from outside," said Mr
Prachaub in a recent interview.

Opposition sources said the coalition has already received a
signal from certain parties in the Opposition that they are
prepared to come in and help.

The sources believe the Chuan coalition lacks qualified persons to
handle the current crisis of confidence. "The stock market may not
collapse. But for the market to remain viable, funds must continue
to flow in and out.

"If funds continue to flow out, then there will only be locals
playing in the market. This will be like playing cards with one or
two baht. In the end the dealer will have to give up," said one
senior Opposition member.

"This is a serious problem and could lead the government to effect
a change in reviewing the current partnership," he added.

Mr Prachuab said the other differences within the coalition are
"just politics." He said the three main coalition parties --
Democrat, Palang Dharma and New Aspiration -- are still locked in
a struggle to maintain their popularity after elections.

Palang Dharma is harping on the governor election issue because of
its election promise to voters while the Democrats, despite their
poll pledges, are saying "yes but not now".

The New Aspiration Muslims are "very aggressive" on the issue as
well, Mr Prachuab said.

But in his view, neither the Democrats, Palang Dharma or New
Aspiration are prepared to go their separate ways over these
issues and in the end compromise looks the most likely
possibility.

Mr Prachuab said the Democrats continue to remain concerned about
their popularity as against the Palang Dharma. "The Democrats have
been careful all along," he said adding that when the Democrats
were asked by Chart Thai (when Chatichai Choonhavan was prime
minister), the Democrats said they would join only if Palang
Dharma did so as well.

"The Democrats have held Palang Dharma close to them all along.
It's only through their better political tactics that thay managed
to discredit Palang Dharma," he said.

"Palang Dharma is like a tank. It can only smash forward. Now
Palang Dharma has no more cards to play and each time it throws
down a card it gets manipulated," Mr Prachuab said.

As for the News Aspiration, Mr Prachuab does not believe its
leader Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is prepared to lead the party
away from the coalition over the proposed changes to the Muslim
administrative law.

"Eventually these issues will disappear," he said.

While the coalition is facing these differences, political
analysts noted last week that military officers close to the
former Class 5 power holders are prepared to test the waters and
see what the public feels about the government's performance to
date.

First, Gen Suwit Chantharapradit, the Defence permanent secretary
questioned Mr Chuan over the coalition's unity.

This was followed by statements by Lt Gen Yuthaphan Makaramanee,
chief of the Territorial Defence Department. He suggested that
former prime minister Gen Suhcinda Kraprayoon should return to
politics.

"These statements are the result of a lack of belief in the
capability of the current government," commented one analyst,
adding that such tests are likely to continue every now and then.

How the government fares will depend very much on how it handles
the issues of capability and credibility, said the analyst, adding
that these problems will emerged only from within the government
and not from outside.

Mr Prachuab noted that one problem Mr Chuan is facing is that he
lacks a proper team of advisers.

Mr Chuan does not believe in outsiders. He thinks that he can
handle things by reading a great deal. As a minister he could read
everything and make decisions. But as prime minister he needs help
from outsiders especially those with technical knowledge.

In responding to questions and problems the Prime Minister uses
logic and his oratorial expertise but this limits the capability
of the government and could lead to loss of credibility, Mr
Prachuab said.

And instead of tackling economic woes resulting from poltiical
problems caused by the military coup in February last year, he is
focussing on social issues, the Chart Pattana secretary general
said.

Tackling issues like prostitution is something that will take
decades to solve because it is essentially a social and economic
problem. "The Chuan government does not have much to show as far
as work is concerend because it has set set the wrong priorities.

"Instead of solving economic problems, he is going after social
issues," he said.

Democrat MP Alongkorn Polabutr of Petchabun also believes that the
differences within the coalition are not serious.

"There are no policy differences, just the methods (of achieveing
that policy)," he said.

He believes that some of the problems may be because Palang Dharma
and New Aspiration are new in their role as members of a governing
colaition while the Democrats have been in previous governments on
many occasions.

All parties remain essentially "democratic" but have different
views on administration.

MP Alongkorn believes that it is unfair for the public to expect
everything from the current coalition which has only been in
office less than a month.

"People think that the coalition partners have been in power since
May, which is wrong. We don't even have a budget yet," he said.

The Democrat MP said each party will have to work hard to maintain
unity within the coalition by forge better understanding among the
parties.