From: andrew@cubetech.com
Subject: Re: Make it Cheap
Organization: Cube Technologies, Inc.
Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1992 06:38:27 GMT

In article <1992Oct4.233740.20336@utstat.uucp> philip@utstat.uucp (Philip McDunnough) writes:
>In article <1992Oct4.200423.956@cubetech.com> andrew@cubetech.com writes:
>
>[ ]
>>
>>Besides, the cost difference between a high-end 386 and a low-end 486
>>is negligable.  By the time NS486 is out the difference will be
>>insignificant - particularly once Cyrix gets it's 486 out on the
>>market.
>>
>>Performance will be unacceptable on a 386.  The albatross around
>>NeXT's neck is the 030 Cube w/optical drive.  NeXT won't make the same
>>mistake twice.  Microsoft certainly isn't telling anyone you can run
>>NT on a 386.
>
>Why would the performance be unacceptable on a 386?

You had an 030 Cube, right?  386s are slower than 030's.  Name one 386
system with local-bus video.  How many companies are still selling
EISA 386's?  If you need EISA these days, you buy a 486.  See below
about how NeXT can't, and therefore isn't interested in trying to
capture many of the existing systems.

>As far as NT is concerned,
>it's not finished and should they push on with this idea of demanding high
>end equipment OS/2 (which I saw another demo of this week, with some
>interesting addons) will simply be the OS of choice.

Oh please!  OS/2 being the OS of choice?  Where have you been?  Nearly
every major vendor has indicated that they will be developing for NT
rather than OS/2.  Microsoft is going to kill IBM.  While I don't
doubt that there will be nice OS/2 user base, but it will not
'dominate' the OS market nor be "the OS of choice."  NT will certainly
out sell OS/2 within the first year and a half of it's release.  OS/2
offers absolutely nothing over NT.  NT beats OS/2 as far as
multiplatform compatibilty goes.  Microsoft also markets better than
anyone else, and certainly a lot better than IBM.  If the sale of it's
alpha SDK is any indication, NT will do very well and vendors and
users alike will swarm to it.

>Notebooks are becoming increasingly popular. There aren't too many
>486 ones out there.

Actually there are several.  By the time NS 486 is out 486 notebooks
will be significantly cheaper.

>As far as the current cost difference between a 386 based system and a 486, thatmay be negligible now. But what about owners of 386's? I think requiring
>NS to run on a 486 and up is a mistake. The idea of establishing a minimum
>platform capability standard for your OS and then waiting for the hardware to
>catch up in price/ performance does not make sense to me. 

OK, reality check for Philip:

NeXT has 2 market focuses now.  One is major, and the other is
minor...  The big one is MCCAs.  The other is Publishing.

Companies who want to write MCCAs know they want to do it before they
start looking at vendors.  NeXT can't come up and say "you should
write custom software."  Many companies want to do it now, but know
that it's too expensive.

Why is it expensive?  The large majority of MCCAs that companies want
to write involve client-server database or areas where you need a very
specialized app to process data (trading software for instance).
Doing this type of stuff is a bitch on DOS.  That's why with NT,
Solaris, OS/2, UnixWare, NS486, etc... coming out with their
integrated networking and stuff, there is increased interest in this
field.  NeXTSTEP kicks ass in this catagory, and it's just a matter of
1) Letting companies know that they can do it faster, cheaper, and
better with NeXTSTEP (like they did with JP Morgan and WilTel and
others, and 2) Let companies know that NeXT is a viable company with a
future and switching over to all NeXT is a Good Idea(*tm) despite the
fact that it may temporarily piss off some of their users and
permanently piss off most of the vendors and consultants they get
computer services from now (like they didn't do with JP Morgan).

These people are considering NT, OS/2, Solaris, UnixWare, and
hopefully NeXTSTEP.  All of these require 486 class hardware.  OS/2
requires the least, but you still need a 486 and 8 megs of RAM with a
big hard-drive to get any work done (not my opinion; read the reviews).

This market isn't huge, but it's growing.  It could be NeXTs
"back-door" into the mainstream.  Unfortunately the front-door has
been wide open and Bill Gates waltzed through with NT and is getting
ready to slam it shut.


The other market is Publishing.  This is a big market, and all the
users are high-end.  Asking them to buy a tricked out 486 isn't a big
deal.  These guys are gobbling up Quadras with maxed out RAM
configurations, heavy duty graphics cards, and big hard-drives.

But NeXT isn't pushing Publishing very hard since the apps aren't
there yet.

NeXT isn't aiming to get NS486 on many of the currently installed
486s.  In fact, they aren't really looking for people to switch.  They
are looking for companies who are starting on a solution from scratch.
That's why you hear and see a lot about Dell bundling NeXTSTEP and
little, if any, about a shrink-wrap off the shelf NS486.



>NeXT should be going after marketshare.

They should be, but they are not.  Apparently they can't afford the
morketing required to get massive marketshare in a hurry.

>In particular they have to come out with colour 
>systems that ae inexpensive enough for students to afford. Noone wants b/w
>anymore except for a few holdouts. Lose the current student market and you've
>given up on the future.

I hate to break the news, and I don't know where you've been for the
past, say, year, but it's pretty obvious that NeXT really doesn't care
or spend a lot of time on the student market.  The student market
yields too little to be worth the expense of spending time to sell
them computers.  NeXT does care about higher-ed, but in the sense that
they want a university to install a NeXT lab or two - not that 2
students may buy a stripped down NeXTstation at university discount
this semester.  The student market isn't the future!  Few, few
students become so enchanted with the NeXT they bought in school that
they write any type of significant apps.  The future is getting NeXTs
installed in companies.


While I may not entirely agree with NeXT's marketing strategy, they
have found something that's good and fits within their current budget,
resources, and size.  They don't have that much money, and who wants
to pump more money into NeXT.  Their distribution network isn't big...
I'd love to see superbowl commercials and huge spreads in InfoWorld
and Fortune, but this is it for NeXT - either they make some money now
with what they've got or they never will.  If the things I hear even
vaguely resemble the truth, NeXT will make money.  NeXT will do OK,
but it will be a while, if ever, before they do fantastically well.



andrew
-- 
andrew@cubetech.com     | "We shall not cease from exploration
Andrew Loewenstern      |  And the end of our exploring
Cube Technologies, Inc. |  Will be to arrive where we started
                        |  And know the place for the first time." -T.S. Eliot
Newsgroups: comp.sys.next.advocacy