From: bharat@cs.uiuc.edu (R. Bharat Rao)
Subject: Re: What's the best bid?
Reply-To: bharat@cs.uiuc.edu
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 1993 16:45:32 GMT

nimrod@black.bgu.ac.il (nimrod gal-oz) writes:

>paul@sco.COM (Paul Jackson) writes:
>: In article <1j7csaINNocu@im4u.cs.utexas.edu> varvel@cs.utexas.edu (Donald A. Varvel) writes:
>: >   S: --   H: Q x x   D: A x x   C: A 9 6 5 4 3 2
>: >Partner opens the bidding:
>: >   Pard   RHO    Me     LHO
>: >   1C(1)  Pass   2C(2)  2D
>: >   2H(3)  Pass   3D     Pass
>: >   3NT    Pass   ??

>: various bids mean I'll just bid what I think I can make, 6C. This will range
>: from having no play (very rare) to having a decent play for 7 (also rare).
>: I figure that it will make at least 12 tricks far more than 50% of the time
>: (the lead is running up to partners hand which should be to the good).
>:

>On what grounds do you base your assumption that the you have at least 12 tricks
>on far more then 50% of the time?
>
>pard had strongly indicated some values in spades with his 3NT bid. I don't think
>You would like to play a slam in this case.

what about this hand ( and many more )?

>KQJ
>AKx
>QJx
>Jxxx

Lets consider your sameple hand, (quite unlikely IMO as what does the
overcaller have -- but ignore that for now)...  This LHO, RHO business
is confusing, so I will assume that East made the 2D overcall, that
you were N (with spade void), and your partner (who holds the sample
hand above) is sitting South and is declaring 3NT...

How would the auction go "normally" on this hand - without weak NT?
It would go 1NT-P-3NT-AllPass.  What would be the common lead -- a
spade most likely given that they have 10 between them.  Whether East
(2D bidder) puts up his SA or not, he is unable to attack diamonds,
and you comfortably make -- losing one club (say) and one spade for
660...

What happens at your table?  When my partners make a 2-level overcall,
I lead their suit unless I have strong reason not to (like a void:-),
so West (with is bust hand) leads a dimaond.  You just got a zero for
your 630 as they collect an extra diamond trick...

This is the crucial factor in your decision -- your slower auction
just gave the opponents a lot more information and they are *much*
likely to find a better lead.  Some of the time you will do the same
as the rest of the field for an average, and some of the time you will
get a zero (occasionally you will do well, but it is fair to say that
your expectation is well below average if you play the field
contract).  In this situation, you may as well shoot out 6C,
especially when (a) there are a LOT of hands partner could have where
7C is cold and (b) if you make it, it will be a cold top -- even a 45%
slam would be better than playing in the field 3NT

>nimrod.

As for partner promising spade strength..

Has he?  the way I see it partner has bid 2 suits (clubs and hearts),
shown stoppers in a 3rd (diamond) -- I think it is reasonable to
assume that the VAST majority of the time he will not show up with 6
useless points in spades.  I am not saying that he will never have
that holding, but its hardly very likely.   This is of course the
least important reason to explore 6C.  The more improtant one is your
negative expectation in 3NT...

bharat
--
R. Bharat Rao                         E-mail: bharat@cs.uiuc.edu
AI Group, Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology
405 N. Mathews, Urbana, IL 61801   (217)-333-5978 (O), 337-6498(H)
Electrical & Computer Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana