From: kamol@ipied.tu.ac.TH (Kamol Hengkietisak)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.thai
Subject: Bangkok Post Nov 23: Chuan coalition on rocking boat
Date: 23 Nov 1992 16:24:46 +1100
Organization: Mail/News gateway
NNTP-Posting-Host: munnari.oz.au


BAngkok Post Nov 23: Coalition govt under pressure
 
THE Chuan administration is going through an unsettling period 
less than a month after delivering its policy statement. Policy 
differences within the coalition have emerged and the possibility 
of a no-confidence motion against the Government looms large.
 
This week will be crucial for the five-party coalition as its 
leaders knuckle down to clear up the differences while the 
Opposition top guns meet to work out their censure strategy.
 
Meanwhile, waiting in the wings are elements of the former 
power-holders who are prepared -- every now and then -- to come 
out with public statements to test the public reaction over the 
performance of the government.
 
On paper at least, it appears that the coalition is plagued with 
differences it cannot shake off. But Opposition and government 
sources agree that differences over policy may not be as serious 
as imagined; that compromise is possible.
 
But the Opposition believes that the current scandal regarding 
alleged stock manipulation is potentially more devastating.
 
"Conflicts within the coalition regarding the election of 
provincial governors, amendment to the Islamic law and the 
National Agricultural Farm Council are problems which can be 
solved through compromise," says Chart Pattana Party secretary 
general Prachuab Chaiyasarn.
 
"But one problem where the coalition needs help is the stock 
market fiasco. The government needs help from outside," said Mr 
Prachaub in a recent interview.
 
Opposition sources said the coalition has already received a 
signal from certain parties in the Opposition that they are 
prepared to come in and help.
 
The sources believe the Chuan coalition lacks qualified persons to 
handle the current crisis of confidence. "The stock market may not 
collapse. But for the market to remain viable, funds must continue 
to flow in and out.
 
"If funds continue to flow out, then there will only be locals 
playing in the market. This will be like playing cards with one or 
two baht. In the end the dealer will have to give up," said one 
senior Opposition member.
 
"This is a serious problem and could lead the government to effect 
a change in reviewing the current partnership," he added.
 
Mr Prachuab said the other differences within the coalition are 
"just politics." He said the three main coalition parties -- 
Democrat, Palang Dharma and New Aspiration -- are still locked in 
a struggle to maintain their popularity after elections.
 
Palang Dharma is harping on the governor election issue because of 
its election promise to voters while the Democrats, despite their 
poll pledges, are saying "yes but not now".
 
The New Aspiration Muslims are "very aggressive" on the issue as 
well, Mr Prachuab said.
 
But in his view, neither the Democrats, Palang Dharma or New 
Aspiration are prepared to go their separate ways over these 
issues and in the end compromise looks the most likely 
possibility.
 
Mr Prachuab said the Democrats continue to remain concerned about 
their popularity as against the Palang Dharma. "The Democrats have 
been careful all along," he said adding that when the Democrats 
were asked by Chart Thai (when Chatichai Choonhavan was prime 
minister), the Democrats said they would join only if Palang 
Dharma did so as well.
 
"The Democrats have held Palang Dharma close to them all along. 
It's only through their better political tactics that thay managed 
to discredit Palang Dharma," he said.
 
"Palang Dharma is like a tank. It can only smash forward. Now 
Palang Dharma has no more cards to play and each time it throws 
down a card it gets manipulated," Mr Prachuab said.
 
As for the News Aspiration, Mr Prachuab does not believe its 
leader Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is prepared to lead the party 
away from the coalition over the proposed changes to the Muslim 
administrative law.
 
"Eventually these issues will disappear," he said.
 
While the coalition is facing these differences, political 
analysts noted last week that military officers close to the 
former Class 5 power holders are prepared to test the waters and 
see what the public feels about the government's performance to 
date.
 
First, Gen Suwit Chantharapradit, the Defence permanent secretary 
questioned Mr Chuan over the coalition's unity.
 
This was followed by statements by Lt Gen Yuthaphan Makaramanee, 
chief of the Territorial Defence Department. He suggested that 
former prime minister Gen Suhcinda Kraprayoon should return to 
politics.
 
"These statements are the result of a lack of belief in the 
capability of the current government," commented one analyst, 
adding that such tests are likely to continue every now and then.
 
How the government fares will depend very much on how it handles 
the issues of capability and credibility, said the analyst, adding 
that these problems will emerged only from within the government 
and not from outside.
 
Mr Prachuab noted that one problem Mr Chuan is facing is that he 
lacks a proper team of advisers.
 
Mr Chuan does not believe in outsiders. He thinks that he can 
handle things by reading a great deal. As a minister he could read 
everything and make decisions. But as prime minister he needs help 
from outsiders especially those with technical knowledge.
 
In responding to questions and problems the Prime Minister uses 
logic and his oratorial expertise but this limits the capability 
of the government and could lead to loss of credibility, Mr 
Prachuab said.
 
And instead of tackling economic woes resulting from poltiical 
problems caused by the military coup in February last year, he is 
focussing on social issues, the Chart Pattana secretary general 
said.
 
Tackling issues like prostitution is something that will take 
decades to solve because it is essentially a social and economic 
problem. "The Chuan government does not have much to show as far 
as work is concerend because it has set set the wrong priorities.
 
"Instead of solving economic problems, he is going after social 
issues," he said.
 
Democrat MP Alongkorn Polabutr of Petchabun also believes that the 
differences within the coalition are not serious.
 
"There are no policy differences, just the methods (of achieveing 
that policy)," he said.
 
He believes that some of the problems may be because Palang Dharma 
and New Aspiration are new in their role as members of a governing 
colaition while the Democrats have been in previous governments on 
many occasions.
 
All parties remain essentially "democratic" but have different 
views on administration.
 
MP Alongkorn believes that it is unfair for the public to expect 
everything from the current coalition which has only been in 
office less than a month.
 
"People think that the coalition partners have been in power since 
May, which is wrong. We don't even have a budget yet," he said.
 
The Democrat MP said each party will have to work hard to maintain 
unity within the coalition by forge better understanding among the 
parties.