From: roten@CUBA.gsfc.nasa.gov (Charles Roten)
Subject: Re: 150 F-16 to Taiwan
Organization: /cuba_b/dirbe/roten/.organization
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	<QINYI.92Sep4001005@r6i.uk.ac.man.cs>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1992 02:40:57 GMT

In article <QINYI.92Sep4001005@r6i.uk.ac.man.cs> qinyi@uk.ac.man.cs 
(Yi Qin (BCW PhD)) writes:

>>And Poor Chinese! Mainland is buying weapons from the formor USSR
>
>Oh, yes. This reminds that I read from the Flight International that there
>may be a secret deal between China and former USSR (now mainly with Ukraine
>sp ?) going on--a purchase of a aircaft carrier of over 60k tons, and a
>number of (possibly 30-50, I can't remember the exact number) Su-27 naval 
>fighters (carrierborne multipurpose fighters). However, this allegation
>was denied. Sorry, I can't remember the details. Can anybody speculate on
>the prospect of the China's intension to strengthen her millitary influence
>in the hot spots such as the South China Sea?

They want to exploit the Spratley Islands really badly.  :-)  

Also, it may be the right time for the PLA to begin to learn carrier 
operations.  They  are _not_ easy or simple.  The USSR never could learn 
them at the level of the US carrier force.  I give the PLA at _least_ 5 
years to master them.  But I think that will take a miracle.  10 to 15 
years is more likely.  The PLA navy needs something like what the Langley 
was to the US navy after WW I .. a schoolship.  I suspect the Varyag will 
prove eminently suitable to this role.  

>BWT, I do remember I saw a photo of that carrier in a Ukrainian dock. It
>was reported that some of the advanced weapon control systems are not
>planned. She will not enter service until later 90's. She is built with
>the shape to provide slip-jump take-off ability for the aircraft. 
>
>China will be the first foreign buyer of Su-27K (K is designated for the
>carrierborne models, like Mig29K). Su-27 will make its first appearance in 
>the coming Farnborough Airshow in UK in mid Sept.
>
>>>afternoon to announce he authorized to sell Taiwan 150 F-16 which
>
>I don't think China will buy, if she wants, F-16 in the sheer number of
>150 or 300. F-16 is just too expensive. It costed 16 milion US$ each
>several years ago. Also, it looks like Taiwan is going to replace all
>her fighters--150 is really a big number for the size of an airforce.

I think Taiwan *WILL*.  It preserves a stratgic stalemate that is in her 
interests (and the mainland's, too!) to maintain.  With her carrier, her 
new Soviet aircraft, and her new mid-air refueling capability, the PRC 
is developing, albeit slowly, the ability to project military power beyond 
her own borders.  Taiwanese planners would be derelict in their duty if 
they did not try to maintain the balance of power in the region.  For if a 
cross-Strait war breaks out, both sides will lose no matter who wins.  

>qinyi (Qin Y)
>qinyi@cs.man.ac.uk

--
Charles Roten | Hughes-STX, Incorporated | 
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