From: Larry Margolis <margoli@watson.ibm.com>
Subject: Re: FOCA: And I quote.....
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 1992 21:24:37 GMT
Reply-To: margoli@watson.ibm.com
Disclaimer: This posting represents the poster's views, not necessarily those of IBM
Organization: The Village Waterbed

In  <1992Aug20.190712.18672@menudo.uh.edu>  HADCRJAM@admin.uh.edu (MILLER, JIMMY A.) writes:
>
> > In article <1992Aug18.194600.15777@ncsu.edu> dsholtsi@csl36h.csl.ncsu.edu (Dou
> > > In article <1992Aug18.143553.466@cbnewsj.cb.att.com>
> > > decay@cbnewsj.cb.att.com (dean.kaflowitz) writes:
> > >
> > > >dsh@zeus.csc.ncsu.edu (Doug Holtsinger) writes:
> > > >>garvin+@cs.cmu.edu (Susan Garvin) writes:
> > > >>>john@anasazi.com writes:
> > >
> > > >>>> Hmmm... that's odd. I heard a PRO-CHOICE advocate state that 1% of
> > > >>>> abortions in the US are in the 3rd trimester. These must be very
> > > >>>> busy and rich doctors.
> > >
> > > >>> That's *less* than 1%.
> > >
> > > >> The annual number of abortions performed at 21 weeks and after tends
> > > >> to number in the thousands.  Percentages always make the numbers look
> > > >> smaller than people might realize.  That's because there are millions
> > > >> of abortions performed every year.
>
>   About 1.3% of abortions took place at >21 weeks of gestation in women over
> 18 yrs of age (1988).  Given about 1.3 million abortions in 1988, that's over
> 13,000 abortions post 21 weeks.
>
>   The 1.3% figure is based on data collected from 11 states.
>
> --Centers for Disease Control Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, July 1991
> --Vital Statistics of the US, 1988. Vol. II-- Mortality.
> --all figures are for 1988

Your numbers are a bit off.  First, it's not clear why you're limiting it to
women over 18; 26% of those obtaining abortion in 1988 were teenagers
(11 - 19).  (I realize that there's an overlap in the ages, but these are
the stats I have - also for 1988.)  Your 1.3 percent is based on 11 states;
the numbers I'm giving are based on the entire country.

>   A bit much for those 3 doctors someone else mentioned, unless a LOT of
> abortions occur between 21 and 24 weeks,

Bingo.  Give that man a cee-gar.  :-)

(Actually, that's a lot *of those occurring after 21 weeks*, which is less
than 1% of the total to begin with.)

Information from the Alan Guttmacher Institute:

89% of abortions take place in the first trimester of pregnancy.

50% of the 1.6 million abortions each year take place at 8 weeks or less
from the last time the woman menstruated (LMP); 27% at 9-10 weeks LMP; and
12% at 11-12 weeks LMP.  6% of abortions take place at 13-15 weeks LMP;
4% at 16-20 weeks LMP; and less than 1% at 21 weeks LMP or more (0.6%).

About 100 or 0.01% of abortions take place after 24 weeks.

One study found that of 78 reported abortions past 24 weeks of
pregnancy, 75 were classified incorrectly and were actually in utero
fetal deaths or occurred at earlier gestation, and two of the three
correctly classified abortions were for anencephaly.

(End of quotes)

Adding up the above figures, we see
50%   at 8 weeks or less,      (fractional percentage unknown for these)
77%   at 10 weeks or less,       "
89%   at 12 weeks or less,       "
95%   at 15 weeks or less,       "
99.4% at 20 weeks or less.     (by subtracting 0.6 from 100)

I apologize for this interjection of facts; we now return you to
your regularly scheduled flame-fest.  :-)

Larry Margolis, MARGOLI@YKTVMV (Bitnet), margoli@watson.IBM.com (Internet)