From: fierro@uts.amdahl.com (Doug Fierro)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: Computer Paradox
Date: 12 Jan 93 01:48:44 GMT
Organization: Amdahl Corporation, Sunnyvale CA

In article <1993Jan11.093829.27409@hkkk.fi> heikkila@hkkk.fi (Jukka Heikkila) writes:
>In <1993Jan4.144434.18994@husc3.harvard.edu> dobrowol@husc8.harvard.edu (Pawel Dobrowolski) writes:
>
>
>>       HI FOLX!
>
>>  Does anyone know of any recent books, papers, etc on the
>>computer paradox  (The fact that no evidence exists to prove
>>increase in efficiency as result of introducing computers to
>>a business organization)?
>
>>Thanx a lot,
>
>>Pawel Dobrowolski
>>dobrowol@husc8.harvard.edu

>My colleaques have also tried to find correlation of financial
>performance with the state of IS-architecture. I think their article
>is going to appear in MIS Quarterly this year (authors Kivijarvi H.
>and Saarinen T.). 

  Let me guess- it's a positive correlation? :-)

  Actually, if all other things are held constant except for the computer
variable, the outcome may largely depend upon how large the business
organization is- the larger the organization the more it can profit by
using computers and similar technology.   Of course, you are also assuming
that the business organization is using decent software and that the 
employees can utilize the technology to its full potential, and you are 
assuming that more efficient use of EXISTING time and resources translates
into profits keeping everything else constant (including the business
environment itself) - a lot to assume there.

  You could argue in small parts that computers are more efficient than
manual work on a transaction basis, and then from there increase the number
of transactions until the benefits of the computer outweigh the cost.
Some measures to use:

	search/retrieval time
	reduction of duplicate work via templates/electronic copies/etc.
	reduction of manual work via automated processes
	increase in productivity
	etc.

  So let's say an on-line database can save an employee an average of X
seconds per customer inquiry.  Add up the number of customer inquiries
an employee has in a day/week/year, multiply that by the number of 
employees handling customer inquiries, and then multiply that by the
cost per hour of that service and you have a rough estimate of the
cost savings for that one particular facet.

  You can do the same with pre-prepared forms, automated handling processes
such as billing and mailing, and other tool knick-knacks and I'm sure you
could make a case that computers do indeed increase efficiency of businesses
depending on the size.

  In fact, you could look to Wall Street as a real-life example- computer
trading programs are highly efficient- almost too efficient :-)

  So much for that BS...

  Doug
-- 
                                                     Doug Fierro
                                      |\             UTS System Software
  O                         __________|_\______      CASE tools development
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Newsgroups: sci.econ,alt.books.reviews