From: roten@cuba.gsfc.nasa.gov (Charles Roten)
Subject: Re: Looking Back From 2992 - The disastrous 21st century
Organization: /cuba_b/dirbe/roten/.organization
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	<1993Jan2.013943.14016@leland.Stanford.EDU> <C0E14x.43L@world.std.com>
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 16:59:21 GMT

In article <C0E14x.43L@world.std.com> afung@world.std.com (Albert K Fung) 
writes:

>In article <1993Jan2.013943.14016@leland.Stanford.EDU> 
>lee@umunhum.stanford.edu (Fung Fung Lee) writes:
>>In article <C06xyJ.5pp@usenet.ucs.indiana.edu> 
>>achen@bronze.ucs.indiana.edu (jupiter) writes:
>>>
>>>My guess is that the other major power would be Brazil.
>>>
>>>
>>
>>The other new great power was the oil-rich Muslims.
>>
>>-FFL

>Very interesting articles.

>If the Chinese and the Muslim (Persian) were to be the dominant cultures of
>the next millennium, that would be a first in the history of human
>civilization. Hitherto, there has not been a culture that can be
               ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>rejuvinated after a decline.
 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Sorry, but you are wrong.  

The Bronze Age Hellenic civilization in the Mediterrainian Basin 
underwent a _sharp_ decline, indeed a Dark Age, beginning at about 1200 
BC, which had settled in quite thoroughly by 1100 BC.  This period was 
marked by severe and destructive wars between city-states, piracy, etc.  
Many of the great city-states of the day, such as Mycenae, _never_ 
recovered.  The causes of this collapse are still unclear.  Mycenae was 
not the only casualty.  The Hittite civilization vanished, never to 
return.  And Egypt was hard-pressed, though it held out.  

And I believe what happened to Hellenistic culture between 700 BC and 500 
BC could be called a 'rejuvenation' without risk of misstatement.  :-)  

The European example is also enlightening.  Recall that the Carolingian 
mini-renaissance was blotted out by pressure from the Vikings.  Once that 
had passed, the lights began to come back on in Europe.  

I also suspect the period between the World Wars might be called, in some 
senses, a cultural reverse for European civilization.  They _did_ recover 
from that.  

>It is probably more likely that these two once prominent cultures will follow
>the examples of the other distinguish cultures - the Byzantine, the Hellenic,
>the Roman ...., in spite of our best wishes.

>But then, needless to say, I hope I'm wrong .....

IMO, you are, at least in the case of China.  The movements of peoples 
which, together with extremely destructive wars and ecological 
catastrophes, blotted out earlier cultures such as the Roman, were made 
possible by the ascendency (at least during crises) of the steppe nomads.  
Those folks ceased to be a serious threat with the arrival of modern 
methods of conventional war.  

IMO, the Islamic world has some cultural problems that call for reforms 
they seem to have trouble accepting.  The Chinese world seems to be 
responding much better to the shock it received from the West.  

--
Charles Roten | Hughes-STX, Incorporated | 
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