From: mjones@fenway.aix.kingston.ibm.com (Mike Jones)
Subject: Re: The Monthly Cecil Fielder Thread
Date: Wed, 02 Sep 92 19:02:20 GMT
Reply-To: mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com
Organization: IBM Corp. Kingston NY

In article <1992Sep02.161808.27587@brtph560.bnr.ca> psycho@brtpa25.bnr.ca (Paul Jezioranski) writes:
>Three anti-Fielders pummeling me at one time =8^) I'll respond to Ted,
>since he's the guy I've been dealing with most....
>
>In article <1992Sep2.135350.13730@midway.uchicago.edu>,
>thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank) writes:
>> In article <1992Sep02.131254.23869@brtph560.bnr.ca>
>psycho@brtpa25.bnr.ca (Paul Jezioranski) writes: 
>> >
>> >	1) You indicate each performers RBI vs. RISP, but there's no 
>> >	   quantification of the pitching quality. How do I know that the
>> >	   avg. ERA of the pitchers Fielder faced in these situations wasn't
>> >	   a half point lower than those Canseco faced.
>> 
>> How do we know it's not a half point higher?  
>
>	Exactly my point; we dont know, and it's pertinent info. We can't 
>	just "assume" the ERA difference is negligible like one fellow suggested
>	anymore than we can conclude that with 700 ML ball players, the 
>	difference between seventh best and best is negligible.

Au contraire; logic compels us to assume that they faced roughly the same
set of pitcher UNLESS there's some reason to suspect that they didn't.
Unless you're looking at platoon or serious situation players (i.e., guys
who accumulate most of their AB's as pinch hitters late in games), it seems
pretty obvious that hitters in a league face about the same mix of pitchers.
In fact, if you don't accept this assumption, you basically claim that all
offensive statistics are useless without serious amounts of controlling for
pitchers faced. Are you really claiming this? Is there any reason to think
that Fielder faced a significantly different set of pitchers than other
sluggers in the league?
 
>> >	2) You've got to be in the lineup to get RBIs. Fielder is in more often
>> >	   than Canseco.
>> 
>> But less often than Ripken.  And this season, Fielder's hardly been a model
>> of durability.
>
>	True, but again, who's currently leading in RBIs? Unless my Sunday
>	paper had a typo, Fielder was the only ML player currently with more
>	than 100 RBI.

And, therefore, it doesn't matter if Canseco has missed more time than
Fielder if he has comparable RBI totals, right?

>> >	3) Maybe six teams had better RBI men than the Tigers, but they have 
>> >	   led the league in runs scored the past two or three years. That's
>> >	   what really counts.
>> >
>> 
>> But that's as much because of Whitaker, Phillips, and Tettleton (all better
>> players than Fielder).  And the difference between Detroit's home stadium
>> and Oakland's -- Oakland scored more runs on the road last year than did
>> the Tigers.  As did Milwaukee and Texas.
>
>	I think you're dreaming if you think any of those three players could
>	outperform Fielder at the plate; even with three Rickey Hendersons
>	batting in front of them. 
>
>	The point about Tiger Stadium is good and true. Do you have the stats
>	on opponents' runs scored at Tiger Stadium?

OK, more misleading stats:
   1992 Tigers: 637 runs scored, first
   1991 Tigers: 817 runs scored, second to Texas (829). By the by, Detroit
      actually had four more RBI than the Rangers. What does that tell
      you about the correlation of RBI->R?
   1990 Tigers: 750 runs scored, second to Toronto (767).

	 Tigers Team OBP    Fielder SLG/RBI     Tettleton SLG/RBI
  1992      .332               .465/108            .465/66
  1991      .333               .513/133            .491/89
	
Park factors, 1985-89, Tigers plus opponents
      Home          Road    %diff
HR     916           772     20.4
R     3588          3766     -5.0

What does this all mean? Well...first, while it's not true that the Tigers
have been leading the league in runs scored for the past 2-3 years, they
have been near the top. Why? A big factor is that they've led the league in
HR each of the past three years (counting this year). While their park
doesn't significantly assist run-scoring in general, it *does* do wonders
for their HR totals. 
Second, look at the comparative stats for Fielder and Tettleton. Why, with
pretty close slugging numbers, doesn't Tettleton get as many RBI as Fielder?
Well, it's partly because Fielder is collecting some of those RBI
opportunities, which is good for the team. On the other hand, looking at
Froot Loops' SLG, it seems pretty likely that he'd collect a lot of those
same opportunities if he were batting in front of Cecil. What really puts
the hurt on poor Mickey's RBI totals is all those outs Cecil makes in front
of him. Cecil's OBP this year is .318; in approx. 528 PA (AB+BB), he's made
168 outs! (No, none of them were caught stealings.) Now, it's likely that
Cecil gets just under 1/3 of his PA's with two out, so that's about 55
innings he's ended. Any men on base when that happens have no chance of
being driven in by Tettleton. Not to mention the smaller effect that Cecil
himself is seldom on for Tettleton to drive in.
 
>> It's winning games that counts -- and in terms of winning games, 
>> Fielder wasn't even the most valuable player on his team, much less the AL.
>
>	I disagree, but I guess that's axiomatic. Anyway, one other person 
>	mentioned that the Tigers did not lead the league in runs last year.
>	The Tigers currently lead the AL in runs scored, as they did in 1991
>	I'm not sure about 1990. Perhaps someone could post the numbers??

See above. Neither year. The question in determining Fielder's value is to
figure out how much all those outs costs his team. Studies have shown that
RBI totals correlate very well to a function of what your SLG is and how
many times you bat with runners on base. One of those factors you generally
have no control over. For this reason, most statheads agree that RBI at best
tells you nothing that SLG hasn't already, and at worst is misleading. The
OPS and Runs Created models both predict team run scoring pretty accurately,
and they both show OBP (as a measure of out-avoiding ability) factor in
heavily into the team scoring runs. Cecil's low OBP is a serious liability.
No one denies that he can mash the ball. The question is, what does it cost
his team?

   Mike Jones  |  AIX/ESA Development  |  mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com

How do you get a British car to stop leaking oil?  Simple.  Drain out all the
oil and drive the car around the block.  This will teach the engine what
happens when the oil leaks out, and it will henceforth make every effort to
hold it in.
	- Charlie Rockwell, Rockwell Motor Sport