From: andrew@casbah.acns.nwu.edu (Andrew Sung Hyun Kim)
Subject: Re: questions of the Korean War
Organization: Northwestern University, Evanston Illinois.
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1992 20:54:11 GMT

In article <1992Nov22.053822.8772@tc.cornell.edu> jfe@alchemy.tn.cornell.edu (Brian Chung) writes:
>>W/o nuke, both Japan and U.S. would have had a lot more casualies including
>>Korean/Japanese civilians; I don't want to imagine what would have happened
>>if U.S. army needed to land on Japan.
>
>	If the US army/marines were to land on Japan, it would have been a
>Soviet-US joint-effort.  In my analysis, such effort would not have been
>necessary.  Japan would have surrendered without a "Battle of Japan" or
>even an atomic bomb.  Truman should have waited a few more days for the
>impact of the Soviet declaration of war to sink into the Japanese military.
>It probably would have saved all the souls in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (yeah,
>I'm fully aware of Truman Administration's need to contain the Soviets.)

Please add following information to your analysis:
    [From "Modern Times", Paul Johnson ... pg 425]

  On 6 June (1945) the Japanese Supreme Council approved a document,
  'Fundamental Policy to be Followed henceforth in the Conduct of
   the War', which assertd 'we shall ... prosecute the war to the
  bitter end'.  THe final plan for the defense of Japan itself,
  'Operation Decision', provided for 10,000 suicide plane (most
  converted trainers), fifty-three infantry troops would fight on the
  beaches, backed by 4 million army and navy civil employees and a 
  civiliAan militia of 28 million.  They were to have weapons which 
  included bamboo spears and bows and arrows.  Special legislation
  was passed by the Diet to form this army.  The allied commanders
  assumed that their own forces must expect up to a million casulties
  if an invasion of Japan became necessary.  How many Japanese lives
  would be lost?  Assuming comparable ratios to these already
  experienced, it would be in the range of 10-20 million.

The last major battle with Japan was battle for Okinawa.
The fiercity and savagery of Japanese soldiers during
that battle convinced many in US command the the cost of
the invasion of Japan would be extremely high.  For example,
the total number of Japanese killed   = over 107,537
                    Japanese entombed = over  27,768 
                    Okinawans killed  = over  75,000
 (note: As many of you know Okinawans were forced to commit
          suicide from direct order from the 'top'.
        Soldiers entombed were ones who refused to surrender)

As compared to this only 10,755 Japanese prisoner of war was taken.
Around 13 to 1 death to surrender ratio.
	[From "The Pacific War", by John Costello]

Also good books to read on this subject, "The Making of the Atomic
Bomb", by Richard Rhodes.

You make the judgement....
  
>>However, I don't know what happened to that air power when PRC involved
>>which would have been a good target for carpet bombardment.
>
>	Well, air power isn't omnipotent.  The terrain of the target
>matters quite a bit.  In an open terrain like Iraq or Europe, carpet
>bombing can be very effective, but in a mountainous/jungle region like
>Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan, there are so many nooks and crannies for
>the enemy to hide.  
>-- 
>T. H. Brian Chung                      | Happiness is...              

After the 1951 stalemate, US bombed N.Korea heavily.  However, it did
not stop the war production, they simply tunneled into the
ground for their production of war goods.  (Maybe this is where they 
learned to dig tunnels :) )  The air superiority alone does not
imply victory.  Nooks and cranies can be man-made....

Andrew Sung Hyun Kim                   Office  (708)-491-5294
1849 Asbury Ave.  Evanston IL. 60201   Home    (708)-570-0584  
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