From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: ROTISSERIE:  Shane Mack+Derek Bell for Mike Mussina
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 23:25:05 GMT

In article <8372@news.duke.edu> fierkelab@bchm.biochem.duke.edu writes:
>In article <9301062015.AA18744@rit.cs.rit.edu> scs2080@cs.rit.edu (Sean C
>Sullivan) writes:
>>My league uses these categories:
>>  Offense - Batting Avg, Slugging, Runs+RBI, Walks, Stolen Bases
>>  Pitching - ERA, Wins, Saves, K/BB ratio, H/9 ip
>>
>>I've been offered this trade:
>>	I would receive - Shane Mack and Derek Bell
>>	I would give up - Mike Mussina
>>
>>Ignoring Salaries and contract status, should I make
>>this deal?
>>
>>I'm looking for feedback.  I already know that Derek
>>Bell should start for Toronto in 1993.

>Well, there are a couple of variables to consider...
>
>1)  How strong is your pitching versus your outfield?
>2)  How long do you get to protect players in your league?
>3)  How well do you think your team will do this year?  Next year?
>
>IMO, this trade boils down to the futures of Derek Bell and Mike Mussina. 
>Shane Mack is a good but not great outfieleder who will help you this year if
>you have a weak outfield.  If your outfield is strong and your pitching is
>weak, then this deal would only help you if you can trade your surplus
>outfielders for more pitching.  (Sorry if this sounds kinda obvious, just
>thinking through my fingertips...)
>
I would disagree with the poo-pooing of Mack.  Sean, he projects to me as a 
consistent 20-20 guy with a .290 average.  (I think his peak power might be 
over, but he could hit .310 with 35 doubles.)  I take it you are looking for 
outfield help, and he would be a godsend on my team.  (Mixed league:  My 
starters are Strawberry, HoJo, and Dykstra.  Mack could replace any of 
these, IMO.)

>Questions about the players...is Derek Bell the next George Bell, or the next
>Mark Whiten?  If you think he's more like George than Mark, then the trade's
>probably worth it.  If I recall, Derek tended to struggle a while at each level
>of minor league ball, then storm through that league the next season. 
>Presumably last season was his Major League "struggle".  The Blue Jays are
>pretty good judges of hitting talent, so, if they think he's ready, he probably
>is.
>
OK, so we see you getting a solid OF and a prospect OF.  John Benson is high 
on Derek.  The Jays are high on Derek.  I like to buy players who were 
prospects but got hurt (though there is always the dreaded Tim Naehring).  I 
think he's someone you pay something for, but in a trade for this type of 
pitcher he's got to be considered the additional player, not your focus.  
Your focus should be on the quality of Mack.

>Mussina I don't know as much about off the top of my head.  I know he pitched a
>lot in college and I think he did OK with the O's at the end of last season. 
>I'd think he'd be less likely to have an outstanding season next year than
>Bell, but he may be a better bet in the long run.
>

I don't think this poster knows Mussina at all.  Here we have a relative 
rookie (had he not pitched 12 games in 1991, don't you think he'd have been 
the ROY last year?) who wins 18 games, has ERA of 2.54, has a K/W ratio over 
2 for his career, and had 260 baserunners in 241 innings.  He should be 
considered a better pitcher than Mack an outfielder.

That being said, I'd make this trade.  I don't think Mussina will ever be 
worth much more than he is right now, and he could become worth less.  He 
came off throwing 210 innings in 1991 to throw 241.  To my mind this is a 
lot of innings, and would be a concern.  Note:  He didn't tire out at the 
end of the year -- in the lat six weeks he was 6-0, 1.77, with 52 H, 17 BB 
and 40 K over 66 innings between Aug. 23 and the end of the year.  But that'
s still a lot of innings.  How he will hold up to the strain on his arm is a 
factor.

I can almost always trade a good outfielder for a good pitcher:  so I take 
advantage of opportunities to go the other way, since they happen seldom.

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