From: 3011_6470@UWOVAX.UWO.CA
Subject:      Coup Rumors in Moscow(II)
Reply-To: 3011_6470@UWOVAX.UWO.CA
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1992 03:57:44 GMT
Comments: To: China-net <china-nt@uga.cc.uga.edu>

(Continued  "Coup Rumors in Moscow")

Of course, if the regime had managed the economy more successfully,
people would have been less cognizant of these problems.  But most
Russians are suffering the most difficult living conditions since
the end of World War II.  A recent poll found that six times as
many Muscovites preferred living conditions in Brezhnev's era as
preferred current conditions.

A decline in legitimacy always hinders leaders.  The Yeltsin regime
has become hesitant and uncertain in the application of force for the
protection of public order and the Constitution.  For example, in
June, the government vacillated for one week before authorities ended
a siege by a boisterous crowd on the Ostankino TV headquarters.

Even more indicative of the government's loss of legitimacy is its
inability to deal effectively with rebellious leaders from many
regions of Russia.  Regional leaders have begun to ignore Moscow's
orders and refuse to pay taxes, and some have been demanded Yeltsin's
resignation.  Separatism is spreading across the country.

With the precipitous fall in popularity of Yeltsin's regime, it is
not amazing that the conservative opposition - an alliance of
Stalinists and chauvinists - has strengthened its position enormously
in the last few months.  Conservatives, who shouted anti-Semitic
slogans during a violent attack on the government TV station, have
gained the unqualified support of one-fifth of the Russian population,
not to mention the support of Moscow's parliament.

Several polls show that the conservatives' platform -- the restoration
of Russian authoritative statehood as the solution to all current
problems, including protection of Russian minorities in former republics
-- is now two to three times more attractive to Russians than progress
toward democracy and market economy.  Many former democrats, including
the most sophisticated liberal intellectuals, support this platform
to some degree.  In Moscow, these Democrats are referred to as "the
advocates of enlightened Russian imperialism."

Although discontent remains high throughout the country, there are
a number of reasons to suspect that Yeltsin's regime will hold out
for some time despite its problems.  So far, popular opposition is
weak and poses little threat to the regime because Russians are tired,
poor, and mentally fatigued after three years of pain and anguish.
A survey done in May reveals that mental lethargy was reported by one-
third of Russian citizens as the most prevalent aspect of their present
state.  People have lost hope for improvement in their lives.  Only
6 percent of Russians view the future optimistically.

Several Russian democrats, such as former perestroika theorist
Alexander Yakovlev and Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, agree that
totalitarianism in Russia may be unavoidable.  Leonid Shebarshin,
the former head of the Soviet Foreign Intelligence Service, shares
this opinion.

It is possible that the Russian doomsayers exaggerate the Russian
drama.  Perhaps there is still time for an economic miracle.

However, Western leaders should take the prognoses coming
from within Russia very seriously.  They should prepare themselves
for a new geopolitical reality, quite possibly including restoration
of totalitarianism, mild or harsh, in Moscow.  Western leaders would
be wise to continue to do what they can in order to prevent such
developments, even if their means to affect such a giant country
are very limited.

** Vladimir Shlapentokh is a professor in the Community Health Science
Department at Michigan State University.
Newsgroups: talk.politics.china