From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.astro,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave
Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review - 11-20 Sept.
Date: 10 Sep 92 22:31:44 GMT
Organization: University of Lethbridge


               ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                      September 11 to September 20, 1992

                Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                   P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
                                   T0K 2E0
                    Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008

                                  ---------

SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
----------------------------------------------------

10-DAY SOLAR/RADIO/MAGNETIC/AURORAL ACTIVITY OUTLOOK

  | Solar |HF Propagation  +/- CON|SID PROB. Es  AU.BKSR  DX| Mag| Aurora |
  |Activty|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|ENH LO MI HI  LO MI HI  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
--|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------|
11| LO-MOD| G  F VP VP  40 -30  65| 30 NA NA NA  05 35 45 40|6 30|NV MO HI|
12| LO-MOD| G  F  P  P  35 -20  65| 30 NA NA NA  05 30 35 35|4 17|NV LO MO|
13| LO-MOD| G  G  P  P  30 -15  65| 30 NA NA NA  03 25 30 30|3 14|NV NV LO|
14| LO-MOD| G  G  P  F  30 -10  65| 25 NA NA NA  02 20 30 30|3 12|NV NV LO|
15| LO-MOD| G  G  F  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 15 25 30|2 10|NV NV LO|
16|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 10 20 30|2 10|NV NV LO|
17|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 10 20 30|3 12|NV NV MO|
18|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 20 30 30|4 20|NV LO MO|
19|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 20 30 30|3 15|NV NV MO|
20|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  02 15 25 30|2 12|NV NV LO|

DEFINITIONS:

Date (day only)
Possible Magnitude of Solar Flaring (LOW=C-class, MOD=M-class, HIGH=M or X)
HF Propagation Conditions for LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and POlar areas (see below)
HF Short Wave Fade Probability (in %)
HF Maximum Usable Frequency in +/- percent above seasonal normals.
HF Prediction CONfidence Level (in %)
VHF Sudden Ionospheric ENHancement Probs (in %), weighted for low-mid lats
PROBability of "s"poradic E (Es) during the UT day for low, mid and high lats
VHF AUroral BacKScatteR Probs (in %) for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes
VHF Overall Global DX Potential (in %) - weighted for Low and Middle latitudes
Geomagnetic Activity Kp Index (peak value - see below)
GeoMAGnetic Activity Ap Index (peak value - see below)
AURORAl Activity for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes (see below)

HF Prop. Quality rated as: EG=Extremely Good, VG=Very Good, G=Good, F=Fair,
   P=Poor, VP=Very Poor, EP=Extremely Poor.
Probability of Sporadic E (Es) for the various latitudes is given in percent.
Kp Planetary Index rated: 0=V.Quiet, 1=Quiet, 2=Unstld, 3=Active, 4=V.Active,
   5=Minor Storm, 6=Major Storm, 7=Maj-Sev Storm, 8=Severe Storm, 9=V.Severe.
Ap Planetary Index rated: 0-7=Quiet, 8-16=Unstld, 17-29=Active,
   30-49=Minor Storm, 50-99=Major Storm, Severe Storm >=100.
Auroral Activity rated: NV=Not Visible, LO=Low, MO=Moderate, HI=High,
   VH=Very High.


PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (11 SEP - 20 SEP)
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |** |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |***| * |   |   |   |   |   | * |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE |***|***|** | * |   |   | * |***|***|** | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |***|***|***|***|** |***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|

                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%

NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.


60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
         ____________________________________________________________
     87 |                                                           J|
     83 |                                                           J|
     78 |                                                           J|
     74 |                                                           J|
     70 |                                                           J|
     65 |                                   J                       J|
     61 |                                   J                       J|
     57 |                                   J                       J|
     52 |                                   J           J           J|
     48 |                                   J           J           J|
     44 |   M                               J           J           J|
     39 |   M             M M               J           J           J|
     35 |   M             M M               J           JM          J|
     30 |   M             M M               J           JM          J|
     26 |   M             M M               J           JMA         J|
     22 |   M             M MA           A AJ           JMA   AA    J|
     17 |   MA    A       MAMA           A AJ           JMA   AAAAAAJ|
     13 |   MA    A       MAMA           A AJ  A  A    AJMAAAAAAAAAAJ|
      9 |  UMAUU UA UUU  UMAMAUUUUUUUU   AUAJU AU A    AJMAAAAAAAAAAJ|
      4 | UUMAUUUUAQUUUQQUMAMAUUUUUUUUQQQAUAJUUAUQAUUU AJMAAAAAAAAAAJ|
      0 |QUUMAUUUUAQUUUQQUMAMAUUUUUUUUQQQAUAJUUAUQAUUUQAJMAAAAAAAAAAJ|
         ------------------------------------------------------------
                         Chart Start Date:  Day #201

NOTES:
     This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
     A-index or the Boulder A-index.  Graph lines are labelled according
     to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day.  The left-
     hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
     Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
     J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
----------------------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
180 |                                                            |
176 | **                                                         |
172 |***                                                         |
168 |****                                                        |
164 |****                                                        |
160 |****                                                        |
156 |*****                                  *                    |
152 |*****                                  *                    |
148 |*****                                  *                    |
144 |*****                      *           *                    |
140 |*****                     **           *                    |
136 |******                   ****      *   *                *   |
132 |******                   *****     ** **                **  |
128 |******                ******************                *** |
124 |******* *            ********************               *** |
120 |******* *            *********************              *** |
116 |*********            *********************             *****|
112 |*********            *********************             *****|
108 |**********          ***********************            *****|
104 |***********         ***********************         ********|
100 |*********** * **   *************************       *********|
096 |*********************************************  *  **********|
092 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #194


GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
-----------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
135 |                                                            |
134 |  ***                                                       |
133 |******                                                      |
132 |*******                                                     |
131 |********                                                    |
130 |**********                                                  |
129 |***********                                                 |
128 |************                                                |
127 |***************                                             |
126 |*****************                  *****                    |
125 |*********************     *********************             |
124 |************************************************************|
123 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #194
NOTES:
     The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
     by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
     Ottawa).  High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
     activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
     The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day
     mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
---------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
225 |                                                            |
215 |*                                                           |
205 |*                                                           |
195 |*   *                                                       |
185 |*  ***                                                      |
175 |* ****                                                      |
165 |* ****                     *                                |
155 |* *****                   ***                               |
145 |*******                *  ***                               |
135 |*******              ********       *                       |
125 |********             ******** *  * **                       |
115 |********           * **********  ****                       |
105 |*********          ************  **** *                     |
095 |*********          ************  *******                    |
085 |********* *        ************  ********                  *|
075 |***********   *    ************ *********           *****  *|
065 |************  ***************** *********          ******  *|
055 |************* ****************************      *  *********|
045 |******************************************    **************|
035 |******************************************** ***************|
025 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #194

NOTES:
     The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
     daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC.


HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (11 SEP - 20 SEP)

                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   | * | **|***|***|** | * | **|***|
 -------   |           POOR |  *|***|* *|*  |   |   |  *|* *|*  |   |
   65%     |      VERY POOR |** |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   | **| **|***|***|***|***| **|***|***|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR | **|*  |*  |   |   |   |   |*  |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD | **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
        NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
   Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 30      deg. S.


POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (11 SEP - 20 SEP)
   INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS

                   HIGH LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|   NOT    | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
|AVAILABLE |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|       0% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      20% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      40% |   |   N O T   P R E S E N T L Y   |   | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   A V A I L A B L E   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%|*| | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |***|** |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 40%|*|*| | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*| | | |*|*|*| |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|


                  MIDDLE LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|   NOT    | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
|AVAILABLE |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|       0% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      20% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      40% |   |   N O T   P R E S E N T L Y   |   | 40%|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   A V A I L A B L E   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |* *|*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 40%|*| | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*| | | | | |*| | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

                    LOW LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|   NOT    | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
|AVAILABLE |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|       0% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      20% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|      40% |   |   N O T   P R E S E N T L Y   |   | 40%|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   A V A I L A B L E   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |** | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*| | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

NOTES:
      These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz
bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts.  For more information, request the document
"Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca" or
"COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".  This document, as well as others and related
data and forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.


AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (11 SEP - 20 SEP)

                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |***| * |   |   | * | * |***|***| * |   |
   65%     |            LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |            LOW |***| * |   |   |   |   | * |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   85%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
NOTE:
     For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca"
or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and
related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.


**  End of Report  **
Newsgroups: sci.astro