From: pathak@mitre.org (Heeren Pathak)
Subject: Re: 1993 will be a good year for OS/2
Followup-To: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Organization: Mitre Corporation
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1993 15:33:11 GMT

In article <1k4t5fINNkhc@usenet.INS.CWRU.Edu>, dab6@po.CWRU.Edu (Douglas A.
Bell) wrote:
> 
> have never been main stream.  I don't consider unix as a mass market
> option.  All that leaves is windows NT.
> 

Personally, I think you are missing out one item: UnixWare.  I have yet to
personally play around with it, but the people who have seen it say it is
hot. 
 
> Assuming that Microsoft is able to scrape up a reasonably bug free
> version of windows NT by July, it is still going to lose.  Microsoft
> looks like they are trying to use NT to make another break into the
> networking field.  They are going to fail.  Companies have just invested
> too much money in netware, which is stable.  Why would they want to change
> within the next two years?  Too many IS workers are certified netware
> engineers.  They are not going to look once an windows NT, much less 
> twice.  Microsoft doesn't understand the dynamics of the network market
> and once again are going to fail to gain market share.  Windows NT is
> going to be lucky to have the same measure of success as Windows for
> Workgroups  (or as some are now saying Windows for Warehouses, because
> that's where all of the unsold copies are sitting.)  Netware 4.0 and 
> Vines 5.5 will completely eclipse NT.
> 

However, UnixWare won't face this problem since it does interact extremely
well with Netware.  

I also think NT will be a big player in the non-Intel Workstation market. 
A lot of people using SGI's are non-technical users who use an SGI just
because it has the best graphics around.  Running NT instead of Unix is a
win since it gives these users access to all the desktop applications
available for Windows.

> O.K. So that leaves the possible desktop market for windows NT.  It
> doesn't have a chance.  Windows 3.1 and os/2 2.0 are going to run
> circles arround windows NT as far as system performance goes.  At least
> os/2 offers a nice new interface.  Poor DOS compatablity, staggering
> system resources, and large price tag will keep it out of the home market 
> except for the most experimental home users.  Windows NT is about
> 24 months ahead of the times as far as hardware requirements.  OS/2
> is going to chew it up and spit it back out durring this period.  As for
> user interfaces, windows NT is about 2 years behind os/2.  NT certainly
> has no special no attraction there.  Windows NT is not even going to be 
> able to compete with os/2.
> 

I think MS will have to play a fine balancing act between promoting NT and
promoting Windows 3.1.  NT's requirements aren't necessary going to kill it
in favor of OS/2.  Remember the saying that "you never get fired for buying
IBM"?  Well, a number of business now say "you never get fired for buying
Microsoft".  Microsoft has a very formidable marketing machine and so far
IBM's track record of marketing of OS/2 has been about as good as
Microsoft's track record of release NT, varporous ;-) .  Not matter how
great OS/2 is technically, it will fail to become a major player unless IBM
markets it better.  The recent "OS/2 100" ads lend some hope that IBM is
waking up to this, but they have an uphill battle.

> What can we expect to happen in the market place in the next 12-18
> months?  OS/2 is going to be the winner by default.  It is going to
> be the only reasonable high end x86 desktop option durring that time.  
> New 32 bit native apps will arrive.  Hardware drivers will arrive.
> Windows 3.1 will start to fall away as it begins to show it's age.
> OS/2 will be a strong force in the industry.
> -- 

I think the 32-bit Workplace aware apps will have a bit impact on OS/2
sales.  Everything I have heard about the Lotus apps have been impressive. 
One person who was using the new 1-2-3, Ami Pro and Freelance made a
comment that "since each app was so seemlessly integrated to the user
interface, it was almost like using one application instead of three".  If
other people feel the same way, OS/2 may really take off.

I think 1993 will be a good year for OS/2 but the battle of the operating
systems is far from over.  



-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heeren Pathak                      | Millions long for immortality who do 
pathak@mitre.org                   | not know what to do with themselves
Mitre Corporation                  | on a rainy Sunday afternoon.
(617) 271-7465                     |	               	-- Susan Ertz
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Disclaimer: Mine not Mitre's.
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy