From: chill@walt.UUCP (Curtis Hill)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.basketball.college
Subject: Carolina Preview, Part III (not so long)
Date: 29 Sep 92 20:52:46 GMT



Lineups:  Starting and Potential Substitutions
----------------------------------------------

For the team this season, look for a rotation of 8:

            proj minutes
Phelps          (34)
Williams        (28)
Reese           (30)
Lynch           (30)
Montross        (30)

Rodl            (20)
Sullivan        (12)
Salvadori       (16)

with Calabria or Davis possibly getting some time at guard.  This is the
first time in 2 years that there is an obvious rotation of eight starting
the season.  I don't think anyone will crack this eight for more than 4
minutes a game.

Note that I've tried to average these minutes out for the season.  You'll
see games where Phelps plays 38-40 or Montross gets in foul trouble and only
plays 20 minutes or so, etc.


That leaves:

Cherry - early season backup point; garbage time
Wenstrom - will get some minutes when Eric and/or Sal get into foul trouble
Geth - garbage time
Davis - maybe some time at point later in the year; garbage time
Calabria - see Davis
Zwikker (redshirt)

And it might do to redshirt Geth, too.

I do like this team, especially if Sullivan's time is spent at power
forward and not the wing.  Rodl could prove to be the best 6th man in
the country.  He can play 1-3 if necessary.  I like him better spelling
Reese and Phelps (and moving Donald or Calabria/Davis to point if Rodl is 
in for Phelps).

A couple of interesting teams arise from the 8 man rotation:

The starting lineup for one.  It could be very strong.

[Phelps|Williams|Lynch|Sullivan|Montross/Sal] - leads to a very big
lineup that isn't too slow.  Works well against teams with a muscular wing
(Say Georgia Tech with Forrest or Wake Forest with Rodney "Superstar" Rogers.)

[Phelps|Rodl|Reese|Lynch|Montross] - A big guard team with good defense.

[Phelps|Williams/Reese|Lynch|Sal|Montross]- Can you say 'zone' boys and girls?

[Williams|Rodl/Calabria|Reese|Sullivan|Montross] - 3pt team.

[Phelps/Davis|Williams|Calabria|Sullivan|Montross] - 3 guard team

[Phelps/Davis|Williams|Calabria|Reese|Sullivan] - short 3 guard team


How Good Can This Team Be?
--------------------------

I do like UNC's team for next season.  Each player needs to improve, but
if a few of them do, the team should do well.  They do need to be more
consistent on offense, and that's where I think the loss of Davis may help
the most.  The rest of the team knows they have to score.



Indeed, if

1) Reese dribbles and shoots better;
2) Phelps shoots better;
3) Sullivan extracts his head from his butt for whole games;
4) Montross develops more inside moves (he says he is);
5) Sal gets stronger, more consistent, and more aggressive rebounding;
6) Donald becomes Hubert (or a good imitation);
7) Lynch becomes a consistent 15 ft shooter;
8) Rodl shoots more, and more quickly,

UNC would be awesome.  Just getting 4 of the 8 would make UNC a Final 4
contender.  The most important of these 8 are 4, 6, 1, and 7.  If Lynch
could develop a solid 3 pt shot....


I feel the most likely to happen is 6(*), followed by 4, 5, and 1.

The least likely are 8, 3, 2, and 7.

(*) Let me elaborate here.  What I mean is for Donald to come in, shoot
38-40% from the three point line, play good defense, and score 10-15 a 
game.  I don't think this is out of the question at all.


The Unexpected or Unpredictable
------------------------------


Some of the "wildcards" that might turn up this year include:

   1) How will Dean, who lives by tradition and repetition, deal with
      the decrease in practice days this season?  (Start date Nov. 1)

   2) How will the team perform against strong early competition?
      And how will the team react to the performances, whether good or bad?

   3) Getting commitments from some of the good high school players
      (Livingston, Stackhouse, Wallace, etc.) might put the coaching staff
      in a more relaxed state of mind. [Ed - note Livingston has already
      verbally committed to LSU.]

   4) Meeting Louisville in the round of 16 in the NCAA's (I'd say very
      likely, as likely as Duke meeting Vandy in the round of 32).  It'll
      be interesting to see (if this happens) how much Rozier has improved
      and whether his emotional play can carry Louisville to a victory.


The Schedule
------------

UNC Men's Basketball Schedule
1992-93 Season


November

20 - Blue White Game
24 - High Five America (Carmichael)
28 - Australian National Team

December

1 -   Old Dominion
4-5 - Tournament of Champions at Charlotte
      (vs South Carolina, Texas vs Princeton)
9 -   Virginia Tech at Roanoke
13 -  Houston
20 -  at Butler
22 -  at Ohio State(ESPN)
27-30 Rainbow Classic at Honolulu (ESPN)
      (Kansas, Michigan, Hawaii, Fordham, SW Louisiana, 2 creampuffs[I think])
(Dec 27 vs SW Louisiana)

January

4 -   Cornell
7 -   at NC State
9 -   Maryland
13 -  Georgia Tech
16 -  at Clemson
20 -  Virginia
24 -  at Seton Hall(Super Bowl Network)
27 -  Florida State
30 -  at Wake Forest

February

3 -   at Duke(JP/ESPN)
6 -   NC State(NBC)
9 -   at Maryland
14 -  at Georgia Tech
17 -  Clemson
21 -  at Virginia
24 -  Notre Dame(NBC)
27 -  at Florida State

March

3 -   Wake Forest()
7 -   Duke(NBC)

11-14 ACC Tournament


This is a very strong schedule, with only one true creampuff (Cornell).
There are games, or potential games, with 11 non-ACC NCAA tournament teams.
There are also 8 ACC games vs NCAA opponents and 2 against NIT champion
Virginia.

That is the usual crap you read about schedules.  Let's take a serious
look at the schedule.  The games are tough. Butler and ODU will still be good.
Houston will not be as dangerous as last year.  Ohio State will be down due
to the loss of Jimmy Jackson, but they have good recruits and will be tough
at home.  Notre Dame...well, they're not going to set world on fire and they
will lose to Carolina this year, probably badly.  The game at Seton Hall in
January should be a very good game.  Seton Hall will remember the pasting
Carolina gave them in the ACC/Big East Challenge last year.

This year, the ACC has 3 very good teams and 4 teams on the next level.  The
top 3 (Carolina, FSU, and Duke) should each have very good years and finish 2
games ahead of the #4 spot.  Carolina should fare well in the ACC this year,
losing no more than 5 games, with 3 or 4 being a more likely total.

This schedule is a good schedule.  It challenges the team with quality
opponents with most of those games on the road.  This is not the weak
team of 89/90 playing too strong of a schedule.  Nor is it the schedule that
allowed a young team to play many of home games last season.  It's a strong
schedule for a strong team, and should temper the team for the NCAA's.

About the only thing I'd change is swapping the Seton Hall and Notre Dame
games.  I'd rather be playing a team with a bit more punch at the end of
the season.  I think the real reason Dean's playing Notre Dame so late is so
Jimmy Black (Notre Dame assistant, '82 point guard) can pick apart the Carolina
weaknesses and show Dean how a good coach will try and exploit UNC's weak spots
during the post-season.  It'll also give Dean a couple of weeks to try and 
shore up those soft spots.


Post-Season Potential, Final 4 Predictions
------------------------------------------

I think, if things develop well, Carolina has the potential to be a legitimate
contender for the National Championship next season.  Certainly, a Final 4
is not out of the question, and I will be disappointed if they don't make
the Final 8. (Projected regular season record:  22-5)

I'm looking for a Final 4 appearance, personally.


Bonus -- Curtis' early Final 4:  FSU(*), Michigan(+), Memphis State, Carolina

* If Cassell isn't eligible (and it looks like he will be) or Ward goes down
with an injury during the football season, substitute Kansas.

(+) If any of Michigan's players are eligible this season (that's a joke, son).


General Sounding Off
--------------------

I believe that Dean Smith has done a masterful job getting the most
out of his teams in the last few years.  Losing Roy Williams and Eddie
Fogler bang-bang back in 1988 really hurt Dean, because they'd been his
right and left hands for years.  The new coaches had trouble getting started
on the recruiting trail and some situations were handled poorly.  Others, like
the Kenny Anderson/ Bobby Hurley fiasco, just sort of happened.  That kind of
thing occurs occasionally in college recruiting.  It wasn't until the class of
1990 that the recruiting got back on an even keel.  If Dean and his staff can
pull in one or two top 20 recruits this year, I think it's safe to say you'll
see Carolina back in the top 10 every year until Dean retires.  If not,...




(Acknowledgements:  Some of the information on individual player's progress
came from the Poop Sheet.  Other folks provided information and insight,
including Suresh Rajgopal, Subhash Roy, Erik Erikson, Peter Chu, Bucky
Ransdell, Kevin Denelsbeck and Super Dave Chen).




Curtis Hill
star3!walt!chill@mcnc.org