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Date:         Thu, 8 Oct 1992 01:02:02 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      "CIS," Russia, Georgia, Bosnia and..., (#778)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com,
              klur@maristb.bitnet, christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
              76701.103@compuserve.com

My worst bane is upon me - a fall cold - and with my wife ill, kids
out of school for two days, so I have to take them to classes AND not
have as much ability to focus on school work, this message will be
relatively brief.

"CIS"-

The "CIS" is to hold a summit on 9 October in a city called Bishkek,
though I do not know what republic that is in. An agenda item will be
more cooperative bodies within the confederation. Turkmenistan
opposes any of same, their President will not attend.

Russia-

On the list RUSSIA, and in some media, the "persecution" of Gorbachev
has been commented upon. Russia's legal system is facing its first
great constitutional crisis - how does one force an ex-leader to
agree to complicity in "illegally" using the CPSU as an "extra-legal"
instrument of power? Gorbachev calls the trial "crap," and stated
today, "Gorbachev is not going to be part of this crap." He feels
that the court has no intent save to humiliate him, and refuses to
comply. He has been fined 100 rubles, which as of yesterday the
"official" exchange rate was 310 rubles to the dollar, about .32 was
his fine. His passport has been taken, ordered by whom is not clear.

RFE/RL reported yesterday that Yeltsin is now leanuing to the Civic
Union, which apparently advocates the Russia of old in some kind of
"new empire," plus a slowdown on reform and continued centralized
planning and economic control among other platforms. Odddly enough,
that puts he and his "enemy" Gorbachev on the same side, or so it's
been reported in the past.

Georgia-

Russia occupied the railroad, and a chunk of Abkhaz Black Sea
coastal area, amidst VERY indignant protests from the Shevardnadze
government in Tbilisi. It is clear that Russia has decided to
intervene in Georgia, what comes next is not clear. Yeltsin was
reported by RFE/RL to have told the Russian Parliament that he was
"defending Russian citizens," thereby seeming to indicate that Russia
does not see Abkhazia as part of Georgia. There would be those who
would say Russian "re-imperialism" is on the rise, and point to this
action as one of the signposts.

Tajikistan-

The Russian military has reportedly seized the airport here, to what
long term end is not clear.

Bosnia-

The fighting grows more fierce in Bosnia. Serb control in the
country, now estimated at 70%, gained ground yesterday when they
captured a key town north of Sarajevo, Bosanski Brod. Natural gas to
sarajevo was cut yesterday, the city is without food, electricity,
water and now fuel. They talk in Geneva of "demilitarizing" the city,
while the defenders are fighting multiple fires with no water, and an
onslaught not seen in Europe since the waning days of World War II.
It remains a most appalling conflict, wherein we should all feel some
lack in ourselves in not speaking louder towards its discontiuance.
The UN Security Council agreed 15-0 to set up a "war crimes
commission," with no teeth. Somehow, the UN has to keep the airport
open, and do what they can to stop now house-to-house fighting in
Sarajevo, so that the 300,000 non-combatants in the city have a
prayer of surviving.


I believe that the "CIS" is unravelling, and that Russia is now going
to be the "bully-boy" of the region. Georgia cannot fight Russia and
win, as is also the case in overwhelmed Bosnia against its aggressor
neighbor Serbia. Russia will dominate the CIS, or discard for some
structure they DO dominate. Zhirnovsky must be pleased by this latest
turn rightward by the Russian President. It could mean the days of
Gaidar and the other reformers are drawing to an end in terms of
having control of decision-making. Yeltsin also announced 50,000 new
MVD men are being created, so a new brand of policeman shall replace
the old, and "order will be restored." The clamors here for such a
state are frightening (and more numerous), in Russia the demands for
"order" are said to be like a falling avalanche, powerful and growing
stronger. VMS
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