From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 9 Oct 1992 20:47:58 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               08 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 282, 10/08/92
10.7 FLUX=125.6  90-AVG=121        SSN=136      BKI=3210 1223  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B4.4     FLU1=1.7E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3212 1233  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=025,017,007,004,008,013,019,023   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.8   @ 0240UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.7   @ 0119UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.0
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2015UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0835UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0555UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 1635UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55435NT @ 2204UT   BOUTF-MIN=55416NT @ 1800UT  BOUTF-AVG=55426NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+164NT@ 2107UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 0145UT  G7-AVG=+093,+031,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+178NT@ 2107UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-017NT@ 2358UT  G6-AVG=+103,-018,+025
 FLUXFCST=STD:123,120,120;SESC:125,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,015
    KFCST=1234 4221 1233 4211  27DAY-AP=035,009   27DAY-KP=6564 4433 3223 3322
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:14NT@1840UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low today.  The largest flare of the day was an
optically uncorrelated class C8.8 flare at 02:40 UT.  Region 7306 (S10E10)
continued as the dominant flare site today.  Flares from this region have
diminished in magnitude over the last 24 hours.  The largest flare from this
region was a class C8.0/1N flare at 04:34 UT.

     Region 7306 is still bright in H-alpha and contains a fairly compact
area of bright plage.  It developed a weak magnetic delta configuration over
the last 24 hours, but has not shown any significant growth.  This group is
capable of producing minor M-class flares.

     Region 7303 (S14W34) also contributed frequent C-class flares during the
day.  A small delta continues to exist in the intermediate spots of this
region.  Minor decay was also noted.  This group is capable of producing
minor C-class flares and may also support an isolated minor M-class event.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity will continue low to moderate.  Region 7306 is expected
to continue as the most active flaring site, followed by Region 7303.  There
is a slight risk for an isolated major flare from either of these regions.
Emphasis on energetic flare potential is now leaning toward Region 7306.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to mildly unsettled until 18:40
UT when a sudden magnetic impulse of 14 nT was observed.  Thereafter,
unsettled to active conditions dominated.  The source of this disturbance is
not clear, but may have been related either to a disappearing filament or
perhaps the M1.4 tenflare with associated Type IV sweep of 05 October.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 to 48
hours with periods of minor storming possible during the local night and
early morning hours, particularly over the high latitude regions.

     HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over all regions.
Minor signal degradation may be observed over the polar and high latitude
regions over the next 24 to 48 hours as a result of recent minor geomagnetic
storm activity.  However, nothing very significant is expected.  Middle and
low latitude signal paths should continue to observe normal propagation.
Minor signal degradation (primarily in the form of enhanced fading) will be
possible over some middle latitude signal paths during the local night hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7295  N12W95  027  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7298  N17W56  348  0090 CSO  05  007 BETA
7300  N11W21  313  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7301  S17W44  336  0050 CSO  06  006 BETA
7303  S14W34  326  0190 DAI  10  017 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7305  N11W11  303  0080 CAO  05  008 BETA
7306  S08E10  282  0180 DAI  10  023 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7299  N13W41  333                    PLAGE
7304  N03W60  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 OCTOBER TO 11 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7287 N08   169
7283 S15   166


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0235 0240 0247              C8.8       3200


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
08/ 1523     1537     1653       N17W54   LDE    C1.1   90


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
60   N15W01 N15W01 N23W07 N25W01  300  ISO   POS   002 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S36 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.

**  End of Daily Report  **
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