From: timr@sco.COM (Tim Ruckle)
Subject: Re: Playoff schedule & tie-breakers
Reply-To: timr@sco.com (kissin' yer sister)
Organization: The Gifted and the Damned
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1992 02:03:19 GMT
Summary: this's the tie that binds us
Keywords: you are in a twisty maze of team records, all alike


Va negvpyr <DMERCER.92Nov10145152@ap1pyr.oracle.com>
dmercer@oracle.com (David Mercer) jevgrf:
} 
} Let me see if I've got this right.

oakeedoke.  i became very interested in the nuances of tie-breakers
in the closing weeks of last season while calculating all the various
permutations of how the 49ers might make the playoffs...perhaps i can
get a little return on my (wasted ;^) investment here.

i'm almost certain i've got this right, unless the procedure has changed
since last year.

} 6 teams in each conference make the playoffs: the three
} division champions and three wildcards.  I'll call them
} DC1-3, where DC1 is the best division champion, and DC3 is
} the worst, and WC1-3, where WC1 is the best wildcard team
} and WC3 is the worst.
} 
} The teams are seeded as follows:
} 	1. DC1
} 	2. DC2
} 	3. DC3
} 	4. WC1
} 	5. WC2
} 	6. WC3

okay.  note that if you have division champs or wild card teams
with the same record, then you use those tiebreaking procedures
to determine the seeding (as well as for determining the rank
that's used to set the next year's regular-season schedule for
all teams, and drafting place too i imagine).

} It should be noted that one or more wildcard teams may or
} may not have a better record than any of the division
} champions, but they are still ranked lower.  Am I correct?

right.  happens fairly often, actually.  perhaps the most
interesting one of recent memory was in '85, when the Browns
won their division with an 8-8 record, and the Jets and Pats
were the wild card teams with records of 11-5.  New England
went on to beat their division champion Dolphins and advanced
all the way to the Super Bowl (just how many wild card teams
have made it all the way, hmmm?).

no way around this unless we abandon the notion of division
winners altogether (and no way to have teams with better records
than division champs not making the playoffs unless we keep adding
wild card teams until half the damn league ends up in the hunt).

} DC1 ----------.
}                \_________
} WC1            /         \
}     \_________/           \
}     /                      \
} WC2                         >---------
}                            /
} DC2 ----------.           /
}                \_________/
} DC3            /
}     \_________/
}     /
} WC3

as has been noted, the higher ranking team always gets to host the
lower seeded team--so the matchups (other than the 1st round) aren't
predetermined.  your assumption is only correct if there are no
"upsets" of the division champs.

} Playoff Round 1:
} 
} WC3 @ DC3 (we'll call this Game 1)
} WC2 @ WC1 (we'll call this Game 2)
} 
} DC1 & DC2 have first-round byes.
} 
} Playoff Round 2:
} 
} winner of Game 1 @ DC2 (Game 3)
} winner of Game 2 @ DC1 (Game 4)

thus you could have:

winner of Game 2 @ DC2 (Game 3)
        and, WC3 @ DC1 (Game 4)

} Playoff Round 3:
} 
} winner of Game 3 @ winner of Game 4 (Conference Championship)

and thus if WC3 upsets DC1, you'd have the winner of Game 3 hosting
WC3 for the Conference Championship.

} Was my guess correct?

nope (though it is a special case).

} Or do they decide home & away based on the teams involved (ie. the
} higher-ranked team plays at home)?

yup.

home field advantage is essentially set before the playoffs begin,
inasmuch as your rank is.   that oft mentioned "guaranteed" home
field advantage is, of course, only applicable as long as the highest
ranked team continues to advance...

} And how are tie-breaks made:
}
} 1. Record

this one doesn't count.  if you have the best record, then there's
no tie to break, right?  ;^)

} 2. Division record
} :
} :
} n. Coin toss
} 
} What are the criteria between 3 and n-1?

first off, head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage between the
two clubs) is the first criteria (with one sort-of exception).  this
is the Real(TM) number one tiebreaker.

second, division record is only applicable when you compare two or
more teams in the same division (i.e. it does not pertain to wild
card multiple-team tiebreakers unless *all* the teams involved are
in the same division).

so, working backwards from the coin toss (n) you have:

n-1. best net touchdowns in all games
n-2. strength of schedule
n-3. best net points in all games
n-4. best net points in division/conference games (depending on
     whether the tied clubs are in the same, or different divisions).
n-5. best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four
     for wild card tiebreaker)
n-6. best won-lost-tied percentage in conference games

for tiebreakers within a division, n-7 is always your 2 above, and
thus n=9.  a tiebreaker for two or more wild card teams from the same 
division uses the normal division procedure.  otherwise the division
record does not count for wild cards, and thus n=8, and n-6 is number 2.

the one exception to the head-to-head criteria (mentioned above), is
for the wild card tiebreaker involving three or more clubs, in which
the first criteria is a head-to-head sweep: this is applicable only
if one team has defeated all the others (in which case you automatically
advance to the playoffs) or has lost all games with each of the others
(in which case you drop out of contention).

if one team wins a multiple-team tiebreaker to advance to a playoff
round, the remaining teams revert to step 1 of the applicable format.
if two teams in a multiple-team tie possess equal superior marks in a
tiebreaking step, this pair reverts to the top of the applicable
two-club format to break the tie.  then one team advances, and the other
returns to the original group and step 1 of the applicable tiebreaker
(which's meaningless for post-season play unless there's a spot left).

this can lead to some "interesting" results.  for instance:

let potential wildcard teams A and B from division Dx and team C from
Dy have identical records.  WC1 has already been cinched by team E
from Dz.  no head-to-head sweep has occured for A, B, and C.  however,
teams A and C have an identical conference record, which is better than
B's.  neither A nor C have four common games to compare.  but C has
outscored B by one point in best average net points in conference games,
and advances to the playoffs as WC2.

thus A and B revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club format, which
in this case is divisional.  neither has a better head-to-head record.
but as it turns out B has a better division record, and B advances as WC3,
whereas A is out of luck (despite having been in lone contention with C
momentarily).  close but no cigar...

} And finally, how are ties resolved in a playoff game?  I
} assume a tie in the superbowl stands, but in the playoffs, a
} tie cannot---there MUST be a winner.  Is this done by
} coin-toss?

Jesus H. Christ, David, a tie in the Super Bowl!!!  Good Lord, man,
can you *imagine* the rioting that would ensue???  and the bookmaking
industry would be in such a turmoil as to make Black Monday look like
a picnic!  what were you thiking?  %^0

there can be no ties in post-season play.  you just keep playing
sudden death quarters until somebody wins (or, i suppose, forfeits
if they don't have enough players left standing to field a team ;^).

what *I* want to know is, assuming it finally comes down to that coin
toss, which team (if _any_) get's to call it?  and why not just have
the coaches arm-wrestle for it???

-timmer

--
Untwisting all the chains that tie
The hidden soul of harmony.
                                                      --John Milton