From: CMSgt Mike Bergman <bergman@afnews.pa.af.mil>
Subject: DoD News 08/26/92
Organization: Hq Air Force News Agency/SCC
Date: Thu, 27 Aug 1992 16:19:14 GMT


From CMSgt Mike Bergman <bergman@afnews.pa.af.mil>

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  <<>> Assistant Secretary Of Defense                                    <<>>
  <<>>        Public Affairs                     August 1992             <<>>
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  <<>>        DSN  225-3886                                      1       <<>>
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  <<>>  DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE NEWS       9  10  11  12  13  14  15       <<>>
  <<>>                                  16  17  18  19  20  21  22       <<>>
  <<>>  WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26, 1992      23  24  25  26  27  28  29       <<>>
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Briefing
Mr. Bob Hall, DASD (Public Affairs)
Lieutenant General Martin Brandtner, USMC
Rear Admiral Mike Cramer, USN
Wednesday, August 26, 1992 - noon


     MR. HALL:  Good afternoon.

     As President Bush announced this morning, the coalition nations have
concluded that Iraqi noncompliance with UN resolutions requires action to
monitor the situation in southern Iraq.  Representatives from the coalition
nations have informed the Iraqi government that, in order to monitor compliance
with UN Security Council Resolution 688 requiring Iraq to end repression of its
people, coalition aircraft will begin regular flights over an area of Iraq,
south of 32 degrees north latitude.  To avoid any potential conflict with
coalition aircraft, Iraq has further been informed that it must not fly any of
its aircraft south of 32 degrees north latitude.

     Coalition aircraft will conduct reconnaissance and other air operations
south of 32 degrees north latitude as necessary.  No Iraqi aircraft, either
fixed-wing or rotary-wing, military or civilian, will be allowed to fly south
of the 32nd parallel.  We will respond appropriately and decisively to any
Iraqi failure to comply with this requirement or any other interference with
our air operations.  Coalition enforcement will begin at 10:15 a.m. EDT on
August 27, 1992.  As President Bush said this morning, the prohibition will
remain in effect until the coalition determines it is no longer required.

     U.S. operations in support of the coalition effort will be commanded by
Air Force Lieutenant General Michael A. Nelson, under Marine Corps General
Joseph P. Hoar, the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command.

     The Iraqi government has repeatedly demonstrated its unwillingness to
comply with the terms of UN Security Council Resolution 688.  The report of UN
human rights rapporteur Max van der Stoel to the UN Security Council is only
the latest documentation of a brutal policy of repression.  Iraqi military
forces in excess of 60,000 have continued a pattern of systematic coordinated
military action against the civilian population in southern Iraq.

     In July, Iraq escalated its military activity, including the use of combat
aircraft to bomb the Iraqi civilian population in this area.  There have been
counterinsurgency attacks against the Shia in southern Iraq for many months.
Recently, however, these attacks have become more generalized, destroying
villages.  The Iraqis have begun to build roads in the marshes to provide
better access by military forces.  Iraq has also interfered with the efforts of
appropriate UN authorities monitoring compliance with UN Security Council
Resolution 688 and has prevented international relief efforts in the south.

     In view of these violations of the UN Security Council resolutions, the
coalition has concluded that it must monitor Iraqi compliance in the south.

     At this point, let me turn the briefing over to Lieutenant General Martin
Brandtner and Admiral Mike Cramer from the Joint Staff.  General Brandtner is
the Director of Operations for the Joint Staff, and he will sketch out the
military situation, with the caveat that the operation has not yet begun and
some details must wait until the end of the 24-hour time table for commence-
ment.  Admiral Cramer is the Director of Intelligence Support for the Joint
Staff.  He will give you an update on the situation in Iraq.  Then they'll be
happy to take a few questions.

     Q:   Bob, excuse me.  Can you just tell us, what time is that local time
out there, that 10:15 EDT?
     A:   I believe it's an eight-hour time difference, but we'll confirm that.

     GENERAL BRANDTNER:  Good afternoon.

     I'll briefly run over some of the operational aspects, but again, I'd like
to emphasize that this operation has not commenced and I will not discuss at
this point any future military operations.  But we will answer questions as
best we can.

     I'd first like to give you a quick orientation, then you're welcome to
take pictures or whatever of this map and look at it later, but just to give
you a breakdown of how this line is affecting the country here.  This is the 32
degree line.  The policy of no-fly is in effect all below this line right here.
That is in parallel with the policy that is currently in effect above 36 north.

     The use of the coalition forces will be essentially the same as it is in
the northerly section.  It will be a variety of reconnaissance aircraft,
including AWACS, to monitor Iraqi activity in the southern zone.  These
aircraft will be supported by appropriate combat aircraft as determined by
General Nelson.

     The purpose of establishing the no-fly zone, and I would emphasize it's a
no-fly zone, not a security zone, is to ensure the safety of coalition aircraft
monitoring Iraqi compliance with the United Nations Security Council Resolution
688 which forbids repression of the Iraqi people.  Naturally, the establishment
of this no-fly area will, to some extent, have the effect of protecting the
people in that region.

     As was mentioned, if Iraq violates the no-fly rule, the coalition forces
will respond appropriately and decisively to any failure to comply with that
requirement.

     As in the north, the activities will be monitored primarily by the use of
U.S. and other coalition reconnaissance aircraft, including AWACS.  The
aircraft that are going to participate in this operation are based currently in
the region and they will continue operations until further notice.  The
operation currently is ongoing, as you know, in the north, and beginning 24
hours from the President's announcement, which we mentioned was 10:15 a.m.
tomorrow, local time, the operation will commence.

     We have deployed a few additional aircraft to the area to augment those
currently operating, and this was done in conjunction with our coalition
partners and with the permission and the agreement of Saudi Arabia and other
nations in the region.  It includes a small number of AWACS aircraft, F-15's,
EF-111's, and other types of aircraft, tankers and so on that can support this
activity.  I will not release specific numbers for obvious reasons.

     The USS Independence is in the area.  It will participate in this opera-
tion.  That particular task force, including other ships in the area, includes
18, and it also includes the command ship LaSalle.  I have specific numbers for
you, if you like in that.

     In the Red Sea, we have seven ships which will not directly participate in
this particular aspect, but they're there to provide continued operations in
the maritime intercept force.

     As mentioned, the operation is under the charge of Lieutenant General
Michael Nelson, who is also the Commander, U.S. Central Command Air Forces,
CENTAF.  He will be under the operational control of the Commander of U.S.
Central Command, General Hoar.

     The operation's name is officially termed Operation Southern Watch. As I
say, the execute order has been signed by the Deputy Secretary and is being
transmitted as I speak.

     At this time, I would like to turn the podium over to Admiral Mike Cramer,
the J-2, who will give you an update on the Iraqi situation.  Then I'd be happy
to answer questions as I can.  Thank you.

     ADMIRAL CRAMER:  Thank you, General.

     The situation in Iraq that has kind of driven us to the condition that we
find ourselves today has been a concerted effort on the part of the Iraqis,
really for the last several months, but certainly in a more concentrated way
for the last two or three months, to mount a concerted campaign against Shias
living in the marshes which run from Amara down to the Basrah area.

     The Iraqis, for their part, have moved eight to ten divisions into that
area, and these divisions are deployed, again, from Amara down to Basrah, and
have really conducted a series of campaigns which have accelerated in terms of
the capability applied.  For example, in late July, we saw the confirmed
introduction of fixed wing aircraft supporting these campaigns against the
Shias.  These aircraft were SU-25 Frogfoot aircraft and PC-7's. These aircraft
were based, really, in three airfields.  The fixed-wing aircraft at Amara New;
the PC-7's at Tallil, just to the south where the SU-25's were located; and
helos supporting these operations out of Basrah.

     If you would draw a triangle between Amara New down to Qal at Salih and
then back across this way, you would find the general operating area where
these operations are focused and have been focused.  The additional capability
that the fixed-wing aircraft, of course, brought to the event gave them much
better ability to determine exact location of Shias in the marshes.  They were
able to concentrate their artillery fire in a more effective manner.  The
Iraqis have also built a series of causeways -- roads if you will -- through
these marshes, again, across this triangle to try to, again, bring more
artillery to bear and to focus their operation on the Shias who have lived in
those marshes for centuries.

     Again, it's a very serious situation that we find ourselves in, and that
basically is the background of the current situation in southern Iraq, the
Iraqi objectives, and the forces that they have.

     Now General Brandtner and I will be happy to entertain your questions.

     Q:   General Brandtner, you've described an area -- actually the admiral
has -- a very small area south of the 32nd parallel where this counter-
insurgency operation is going on, yet obviously the line extends all the way
across Iraq.  Why the need to declare such a large no-fly zone?
     A:   First of all, the understanding here is that the demonstration of
Saddam Hussein's unwillingness to comply with Resolution 688 has broad applica-
tion.  It also affects his overall behavior.  Our view of establishing this
line across here was to give us the latitude to monitor activity south of that
line in order to ensure that, in the broad spectrum, that he carries out all
the responsibilities that he has in accordance with those resolutions.

     Q:   General, could you tell us how large that area is south of the 32nd
parallel?
     A:   I don't have a figure on square miles.  I'll get it for you.

     Q:   Are you confident, also, that U.S. and allied planes can operate in
that area without fear of being shot down by ground-fired missiles or other
kinds of...
     A:   The aircraft that will fly in that area will be postured sufficiently
to defend themselves.

     Q:   Admiral, can you please tell us something about the people to whom
we're now extending this air protection?  How many Shiite rebels are there in
the area, who are their leaders, what do we really know about them, what links
do they have to Iran?  And just a last question on that point, is there an
estimate of how many Shiites might have perished when the rebellion was crushed
right after the Gulf War?
     A:   There are many parts to that question.  Let me take a couple of the
principal parts of it.

     First of all, the population basically south of 32 degrees north in this
part of Iraq is some seven million people, the vast majority of which are
Shiites.  It's difficult to get an exact figure on the number of Shiites that
are involved in this particular insurgency operation, if one would want to
characterize it that way.

     Also, when I draw the triangle, this is the area of the concentrated
effort, the operation itself, the campaign runs throughout this area of Basrah.
But it certainly is in the tens of thousands of Shiites that are involved.  So
it's not a small insurgency that we're involved with there.

     The Shias, of course, have lived in this part of Iraq for centuries, so
they have long claim to this area, and particularly to the marsh area. Beyond
that, I think I don't care to go.

     Q:   Do we know anything about the leaders of the fighting factions? Do
they have links to the Iranians?  How many Shiites were killed when the
rebellion was crushed after the Gulf War?
     A:   I will take your question as regards an estimate of the number of
Shias who were involved post-Desert Storm and try to respond to that.  We do
have some insight into those leaders of those Shia forces there.  But Iran is
not a major factor in this operation or our support for the Shias; it stands on
its own merit.

     Q:   General, you have twice said that the objective of this task is to
monitor the situation.  Is it fair to assume, therefore, that the no-fly will
have no direct effect on the Iraqi military operation, the ground operations in
the region?
     Brandtner:   We are not focusing on the ground operations at this time.
I'm not going to suggest that it won't have an effect.  I think it certainly
could have an effect on their ability to operate there if they're not able to
fly aircraft.

     Q:   General Brandtner, if Operation Desert Storm removed Saddam Hussein's
weapons of mass destruction, then why the need to go into this isolated area,
due to the fact that these people in the same area have been fighting since
biblical times, and how is this addressing U.S. national security?
     A:   First of all, it's designed to ensure that Saddam Hussein complies
with the UN resolutions that were put in effect at the conclusion of the war to
ensure that the country, the people involved, have the ability to live without
repression.

     Q:   General, could you tell us whether you've informed the Iraqis since
Mr. Hall said yesterday that they've moved their fixed-wing aircraft out of the
32nd, south of the 32nd parallel, that should they fly south and then back
north again, that they don't have a safe haven back in Baghdad?  Will you
pursue them?
     A:   I'm not going to discuss specific rules of engagement.

     Q:   Can I ask you a question about the Iranian involvement?  Some months
ago, Iranian aircraft went into Iraq.  Would Iranian aircraft be subject to
action by coalition forces if they were to fly in the no-fly zone?
          A:   That's very hypothetical and I'm not going to deal with that
kind of question.

     Q:   That happened a couple of months ago.  It's not that hypothetical.
     A:   We'll take that action on if it occurs.  There's no intention to take
on any Iranian aircraft let me be clear.

     Q:   If I can ask the admiral a followup, what is the status of Iraqi air
defenses south of the 32nd parallel?
     Cramer:   We can certainly deal with that.  For example, the air defense
surface-to-air missile capability in the Basrah area is largely SA-3 Goa
missiles.  As you have said, and correctly said, there are no fixed-wing
aircraft currently south of 32 degrees north, which I didn't say and I perhaps
should have said.  The Iraqis had some 30 fixed-wing aircraft south of 32 north
before the last few days.  They had some 40 helicopters.  Now the number is
very small of the helos that remain south of 32 north.

     I think I would characterize the Iraqi air defenses as capable in that
area, but certainly not so capable as it is in the Baghdad area or in the
northern area.

     Q:   Do you expect him to challenge you?
     Brandtner:   I don't know.  We'll have to wait and see.  I don't know.

     Q:   General, without getting into the ROE's, can you tell us what will
keep the Iraqi aircraft from flying across the 32nd parallel and then scooting
back to safety?
     A:   Let me just say that we'll be postured, sufficiently, to preclude
that kind of activity if it should occur.  We don't expect that it will.

     Q:   ...hot pursuit or cold pursuit?
     A:   I'm not going to discuss specifics about that.

     Q:   Is it fair to say, general, that our fighter aircraft will be on the
ground on alert, awaiting word from AWACS to deploy, or effective at 10:15 a.m.
tomorrow will we actually have F-15's up flying around as well?
     A:   I will simply say that at 10:15 tomorrow we will be capable of
operating to enforce the no-fly zone.

     Q:   General, again, within your restrictions about discussing ROE's, I
wonder whether you could tell us whether it's going to be some major in an
AWACS that has release authority to shoot down an Iraqi plane, or is it such
that there will be some higher-level person in Riyadh who is able to do that,
or maybe it's here in Washington?
     A:   Let me just say that the leadership is sufficiently energized to make
the right decision and those plans are already well laid.

     Q:   General, the British have said that they're sending six Tornado recon
jets and refueling jets; the French, I don't know if they've said what they're
sending.  My question is, will the brunt of the fighting be done by U.S.
military jets?  Are the British sending any fighter jets, per se, and are the
French sending any fighter jets?
     A:   I'd refer you to the British and French to discuss their forces.
     Q:   You  mentioned specifically in your opening remarks about consulta-
tions with Saudi Arabia.  In this coalition in particular, in Operation
Southern Watch, what is the Arab participation in the coalition?
     A:   I'm no going to get into the detailed policy aspects.  Let me say,
without pointing to a specific country, that we have had discussions with any
number of our friends and allies in that region.  So I don't want to get any
more specific because of the sensitivities there.

     Q:   Will U.S. forces be operating jointly with other than British or
French forces?
     A:   The answer to that question is that U.S. forces will be operating
with as many coalition members as choose to participate.

     Q:   I'm not exactly clear, how will you know when you've achieved your
military objective in this operation?  What are the standards by which you'll
judge it successful?
     A:   The standard by which we measure this is the Iraqi compliance with
the UN Resolution 688.

     Q:   Do you have a period of time?
     A:   We have no period of time.  We are going to pursue this activity
until such time as we have made a judgment that he has complied with that
resolution and his behavior is to our satisfaction.

     Q:   Can you be a little bit more specific at this point, admiral, in
briefing us on the number of Iraqi government forces in the area, the number of
tanks and the number of artillery pieces since that seems to be the basic
equipment that they're using at this point?
     Cramer:   Nominally 60,000 troops.  There are both mechanized as well as
armor divisions in the area, so there are certainly at least 2 1/2 divisions of
mechanized and armor in place.  All the artillery that is associated with those
kinds of units.  It is a substantial capability. It's a very substantial
capability when you consider the lack of threat really operating in the area,
so these forces are clearly being used for internal purposes.

     Q:   There's no restriction at this point on their use of any of these
tanks or artillery pieces or...
     A:   We have seen none, and that is exactly part of the problem. These
artillery pieces and so on have been used in direct controlled fire against the
Shias in the marshes and they are well documented.

     Q:   There's nothing that we're doing at this point that restricts the
government forces from continuing to use these assets as they have until now.
     A:   To answer your question directly, their lack of air surveillance
capability and coordination that the helos and the fixed-wing aircraft have
provided, and have added a real dimension which, as I tried to allude to in my
opening remarks, have made these forces far more effective than otherwise would
be the case.  Now without helo support for coordination, as well as air-ground
attack both by helos and fixed-wing aircraft, the effect of these forces while
still there is going to be significantly reduced from what it was in the past.
     Q:   Can you tell us, are these forces engaged in fighting the Shiites at
this time?
     A:   Yes.

     Q:   Is it still a small-scale battalion and company level?  What are they
doing with these forces?  Can you also say what the posture of their air force
is north of the 32nd parallel?
     A:   I'd be happy to address that as well.  For those forces in the south
specifically, we're seeing battalion-level operations and where they will take
a particular part of the marsh, cordon it off with artillery and heavy forces
on either side, build a causeway across the bottom end of the triangle, if you
will, and then basically it's battalion-level, then operations supported by
artillery and air.  That's very typical of the kind of activity we've seen
really over the last two or three months.  It's kind of a checkerboard
approach, if you will, as they work their way through the marshes.  We haven't
seen, for example, large-scale brigade-level operations because those aren't
the kinds of opposing forces that they're facing.

     As regards aircraft north of 32 degrees, at Al Jarrah, which is located
right here, the Iraqis have concentrated considerable air power.  Many of the
SU-25's that were in Tallil have deployed to the north, as well as Mirage
aircraft have been located there.  So they have significant fighter and
fighter-bomber as well as helicopter and ground-attack capability at Al Jarrah,
and we've been monitoring that situation carefully.

     Q:   Admiral, just by the sake of the numbers, it seems there's a height-
ened vulnerability factor here with the U.S. forces.  Can you make some
comparisons between Desert Storm and what's going on now, and how have you
ensured that these flyers going in will have adequate air cover in the contin-
gency that something goes down...
     Brandtner:   I answered that question before, really.  The point is that
we will be adequately postured to ensure that we can defend ourselves.

     Q:   You said that policy would continue until he complies with 688. What
is there in just the no-fly policy which will force him to comply?
     A:   We believe that the ability to monitor his activity through this, and
the fact that we're demonstrating coalition resolve, is going to convince him,
hopefully, that there's no point in continuing to do that. Beyond that, that's
very speculative and I'm not going to talk about it.

     Q:   How many U.S. military personnel are participating in this mission in
theater?
     A:   The numbers of military personnel specifically I will get to you. Off
the top of my head, approximately 22,000.
     A:   We have approximately 24,000 in the theater right now.

     Q:   How many are dedicated to this mission as opposed to other missions?
     A:   In the theater, the people that are in the theater right now will be
performing this mission.

     Q:   All of them?
     A:   The folks that are currently deployed in the area.  There are other
missions in that area, the maritime intercept force and so on.  They will
continue to perform their mission.

     Q:   They're part of the 24,000 aren't they?
     A:   They are, but their numbers, comparatively speaking, are not as
significant as the numbers that are participating in this.

     Q:   How will this affect the Army exercises in Kuwait?
     A:   They will continue.

     Q:   General, will any warnings be given to aircraft before they're
attacked if they fly?  Any individual warnings?
     A:   We have already made it clear that the notification or declaration
that's been made by the President in the no-fly zone starts at 10:15 tomorrow,
EDT.

     Q:   Just for clarification, first of all, how does the operation of
civilian Iraqi aircraft impede the reconnaissance activities of the allied
forces?  Secondly, is the implication that you're prepared to attack civilian
aircraft that violate this no-fly policy?
     A:   The implication is that civilian aircraft should not fly in that
area.  We are certainly not going to be out prosecuting civilian airliners.
Again, I'm getting into rules of engagement.  I will simply say it this way:
There are not going to be any civilian aircraft participating in civilian
activities that are going to be involved in this process.

     Q:   I didn't understand that.  If Iraq...
     A:   He is to not fly anything south.

     Q:   If Iraq has a regularly scheduled civilian airline flight from
Baghdad to Basrah, you're going to stop that?
     A:   I'm not going to get into specific rules of engagement.  I will
simply tell you that this type of flight will not be permitted.  It will be
turned back.

     Q:   Admiral, two unrelated questions.  First, what is the status of
their air defense radars?  What percentage of their capability compared
to at the beginning of the air war?  And a second unrelated question,
what is our
estimate of the total Iraqi population south of 32?
     Cramer:   Again, I think I answered that earlier.  The total Iraqi
population south of the 32 is about seven million people.  The large majority
of that population is Shia in the area.

     There's another comparison you can make that I think is useful when you
look at the area of the marshes and so on geographically.  It's about the size
of the state of Virginia.  So we're not talking a trivial area here in terms of
overall geography.

     Secondly, to address your questions concerning the status of Iraqi air
defense capability now vis-a-vis where it was at the start of, and specifically
radars.  The Iraqi air defense system, as one would expect, is compartmental-
ized by sector.  The northern and central sectors are much more capable.  They
have been reconstituted in a much more rapid fashion. You would expect that to
be the case since they defend Baghdad.

     We certainly have seen and do observe fire control radars and so on
associated, for example, with those surface-to-air missiles that I discussed in
the Basrah area, so they are up and they are operating. Although I character-
ized the air defense capability in the southern area as less capable than, for
example, the Baghdad area, that was also true prior to Desert Storm.  So it's
still a capability that we have to be concerned about and take account of, and
I believe we've done so in our planning.

     Q:   General, you've been reluctant to get into operational procedures,
but will the Iraqis be told not to lock on with these fire control radar?
     Brandtner:   Yes.

     Q:   Can you assess for us the current status of possible Iraqi SCUD
inventory and what additional steps you're taking in this operation to monitor
possible SCUD activity?  You've said since the end of the war that you believe
they probably still do have SCUD infrastructure there.
     A:   I'm going to leave that part to my colleague, but the operation
speaks for itself as to its capability to monitor that type of activity in that
region.

     Q:   Just for point of clarification, would you compare the operation
south of the 32nd parallel with what has been in effect north of the 36th
parallel with the Kurds?  Any material distinctions in the two operations?
     A:   The operations are very, very similar.  In fact, the purposes are the
same.  The methods of operation will be the same.  The rules are going to be
the same.

     Q:   Can you answer the question about the missiles?  Have you seen any
SCUD activity or other ballistic missile deployments either in or north of the
area?  What kind of a threat would that...
     Cramer:   To answer your question very directly, the answer is no.  But
also to answer the earlier question, we believe and we have good reason to
believe the Iraqis still have some residual SCUD capability.  I will not put a
number with that.  But it is a capability that is there.  Again, in the
planning process and in coordination with operations, we're very carefully
looking at that threat.  I won't be more specific than that.

     Q:   Can you tell us anything about what assets you have that could
monitor possible SCUD activity?
     A:   Now we're getting into sources and methods, and I don't care to
discuss that.

     Q:   General, as a point of reference, did we ever shoot anything down
north of the 36th and, if so, how many?
     Brandtner:   I honestly don't know on the number.  If we have...I don't
think so.  I'll get back to you.

     Q:   General, you mentioned this is a no-fly zone.  It's not a security
zone.  The north is a security zone.  So the two areas are really different.
How do you define the difference between a no-fly zone and a security zone?
     A:   A security zone would imply that there are troops on the ground
actually monitoring that kind of activity.  We don't have that activity going
on in the south.  My comment in response to your question was that the rules in
terms of imposing the no-fly part of the thing are the same.

     Q:   Do any international airlines traverse this area as a regular
scheduled...
     A:   No, none.
     Hall:   Let me clarify one thing.  In the north, we have essentially two
zones.  There's a no-fly zone as well as a security zone.

        Also, in answer to the question here about Iran, I think it's safe to
say we've made it clear that no country should try to take advantage of this
action,  it's not aimed at the dismemberment of Iraq.  We support the territo-
rial integrity and independence of Iraq.

     Q:   Can I ask one more question about the security of UN personnel in the
country, and what threat this operation may pose to them?  What would happen if
Iraq takes action against some UN personnel?
     Hall:   That is something we would discuss with our coalition allies.

     MR. HALL:  Thank you very much.

                                   (END)

-- 
         
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   \\  {*}  //                   bergman@afpan.pa.af.mil  
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   \  Mike   /   
   \ Bergman /
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