From: green@plains.NoDak.edu (Brad Green)
Subject: Re: Somalia
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 03:32:40 GMT
Organization: North Dakota Higher Education Computing Network

In article <1992Dec16.211244.22871@news.acns.nwu.edu> tjewald@casbah.acns.nwu.edu (Timothy Ewald) writes:
>Again, so what?  Jungle environments aren't the only venue that can cause a
>mobilized/mechanized army like ours trouble.  Look at the Russians in
>Afghanistan --- that was no jungle.  Look at the Germans at Stalingrad in '42;

Look at the UN forces in Desert Storm!  No jungle - no hiding places.  So secret
supply routes.

>The Afghans, UNITA, French Resistance, etc. proved that non-jungle terrain is
>just fine.

You keep bringing up the Afgans.  As I remember that dirty little war, there
were two groups fighting against each other - a Soviet client government, and
the Afgan rebels.  Were's the parallel in Somalia?  We've got a bunch of gangs
running around with support within their little clans and that's all.  The
majority of the people there support the UN mission, and no one is trying to
make the clans a client group.  And if they tried, it would be a little 
dificult getting large supplies of weapons in.

>There is nothing like an invading army of foreigners to unify rebel groups (at
>least temporarily).  Mao and Chang Kia-Chec teamed up in China temporarily to
>resist the Japanese during World War II.  Ho ChiMinh's rise to power was aided
>in part by the fact that the Saigon gov't was seen (correctly) as a puppet for
>foreigners.  And, even if the warlords don't team up, they can still cause
>problems individually for a rather small occupying force.

I don't really think that's going to happen, since there's no support for
letting them get away with it.  There's no Slick Clinton running around drumming
up support for the Clans.  With the state of public opinion being where it is,
I believe that any attempt to cause trouble by a clan will be met with over-
whelming force, and the public will support it.

>But, in addition, explain to me why stability will suddenly be brought to
>Somolia when we get the food delivered???  NO PERSON who is in support of
>Operation Get Your Mind Off the Depression on this net has been able to
>explain how we are going to be able to pull out of Somolia after we have
>delivered the food (our stated policy).  Do we feed 'em now and watch 'em
>starve in '93?  Or do we stick around and try to install a puppet gov't for
>stability (which may take months).  

Ah, there's the rub.  Did I ever say stability will suddenly appear?  Nope.
That's the long term problem.  I doubt very seriously if the current mission
will fail.  The problem begins with this phase ends.  You won't be much help
in finding a solution, since you still think there's a depression going on.
What it's going to take is some serious diplomacy, and I'm not sure where the
leadership for that is going to come from, since we've got a new head
cheerleader who doesn't have much experience in foreign policy.  We need
someone that's able to pull the heads of the major governments in the area
(Kenya, etc.) together in a group to work out a solution.  The problem NOW
is that it won't help much to put a country back on it's feet if 75% of the
population is dead.  I think the Bush plan, to send in the Marines and get the
people fed, and then turn it over to a UN group to work out the long term
problems is the best idea so far.  The UN has a couple of months to get their
act together and come up with some sort of policy.  Rev. Jesse claims there
is a conference planned for the area with African leaders to try and do this
on Jan. 24th.  What it's going to take is action from governments in the area
to try and solve this, for their own good.  And as far as I've heard, there's
no plan to set up a "puppet" government.
 
>Get your warm and fuzzy heart off the starvation for a moment, and get your

Unfortunately, you go for the most pressing problem first, and at the moment, 
it's thousands of starving people.  It would be lovely to have a long term plan,
but unfortunately, it's a real world out there.