From: cokasaki+@CS.CMU.EDU (Chris Okasaki)
Subject: REPOST: prediction contest
Organization: Carnegie Mellon University
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 1992 15:01:25 GMT

Remember, entries are due by tip-off Friday!

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Yes, I'm back, but this time I have company!  After two years of running 
the only prediction contest on r.s.b., this season I've been joined by Tony 
Minkoff.  This is a good thing since our contests are very different, and
test different kinds of prediction abilities.  I hope that many of you will
take the time to enter both contests.  It'll be very interesting to compare
the results at the end of the season.

As you may remember, in my contest you submit for each team probabilities of
finishing in each spot in the division.  For instance, you may believe that 
Portland has a 60% chance of coming in first (in the Pacific), a 30% chance 
of coming in second, and a 10% chance of coming in third (and no chance of 
finishing lower than third).  In that case, your entry for Portland would 
look like
	por 60 30 10 0 0 0 0
This approach requires more effort on your part than simply listing the
teams in the order you think they will finish, but I think it yields a
more accurate assessment of your basketball acumen.  Often, you may believe
that two teams have an equal chance of finishing in a given position.
Rather than requiring you to arbitrarily choose an ordering between the
two, my system allows you to state that belief.


WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS CONTEST?

To predict the order of finish in each division.

WHAT DO ENTRIES LOOK LIKE?

For each team, divide 100 points between the seven (six in the
Midwest) possible finishing positions, based on what you think
the probability is that the team will finish in that position.
These numbers will be listed (from first place to last place)
on a separate line along with the team name.  So, for instance
the above reasoning for the Trailblazers would lead to an entry
containing the line
	por 60 30 10 0 0 0 0

A full entry will contain one such line for each team in the league,
preceded by two lines which contain your name (or an appropriate
psuedonym) and your e-mail address.  A sample entry is included
at the end of this post.  Please make a copy of this entry and edit it
appropriately.  NOTE: I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR MALFORMED ENTRIES.  
Depending on how much time I have, I may massage the malformed entry 
into an appropriate format, I may ask the author to do so, or I may discard 
it with no notice.

HOW WILL THE CONTEST BE SCORED?

At the end of the season, you will receive for each team the number of
points you allotted to their actual finish position.  For instance,
if your entry included the line
	sac 55 20 15 10 5 3 2
and Sacramento finished first in the Pacific, you would receive 55 points.
If they finished in last, you would receive 2 points.  Your final score
is then the _geometric mean_ of the points you received for each team.
Two important things to note about this scoring system:

  1. You might be tempted by the following logic--"Well, I really think
     that Chicago has about an 80% chance of winning the Central, but since
     I think they're probably going to win, I should allot all 100 points
     to first place."  Resist that temptation!  This would be a good strategy
     if the scoring system used the _arithmetic mean_, but it doesn't work 
     for the geometric mean.  Your best strategy is to divide the points
     according to your true beliefs, and not try to "game" the system.


  2. Rather than going for the "big kill" as above, it's best to try to
     avoid major errors.  In particular, avoid assigning 0's unless you
     truly believe that Ted Stepien will be elected President before that
     team will finish in that position.  REMEMBER: A SINGLE ZERO CAN RUIN
     YOUR WHOLE DAY!  (That is, a single zero will make your total score
     zero.)  There is always a surprise team or two, so it would be wise 
     to assign at least a single point to every position.

Note that the "no-brainer" entry which evenly distributed the points for 
every team would be about 15. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, 
is to BEAT THAT SCORE.

WHAT DO I GET IF I WIN?

Winners will receive honorary net.godhood until the beginning of next season.

WHERE DO I SEND MY ENTRY?

Send all entries (in the given format, please) to

	cokasaki@cs.cmu.edu

Please include the words "Prediction Contest" in the subject line.

DEADLINE

No entries will be accepted after the tip-off of the first game
of the season.

DISCLAIMER

Since nothing is actually riding on this contest, no one has the right
to bitch if I screw up, right?  Similarly, if someone were dumb enough
to take this contest so seriously that it started to affect his or
her job, schoolwork, marriage, etc., IT WOULDN'T BE MY FAULT!

SAMPLE ENTRY (last year's winning entry)

Tom Rudwick
rudwick@mcc.com

por 50 30 15  2  1  1  1
lal 30 30 30  5  3  1  1
pho 10 10 20 30 20  5  5
gs  10 20 30 20 10  5  5
sea 10 10 15 25 20 15  5
lac  1  3  6 10 20 30 30
sac  1  1  3 10 15 30 40

hou 30 35 30  3  1  1
sa  35 30 30  3  1  1
uta 30 30 30  6  3  1
dal  1  3  6 30 30 30
min  1  3  6 30 30 30
den  1  3  6 30 30 30

chi 30 30 30  6  2  1  1
ind 15 20 20 20 10 10  5
det 15 20 20 20 10 10  5
mil 10 15 20 20 15 10 10
cle 15 15 20 20 10 10 10
atl  5  5 15 15 20 20 20
cha  1  1  3  5 25 30 35

bos 30 30 30  5  2  2  1
phi 30 30 30  5  2  2  1
ny  30 30 30  5  2  2  1
mia  2  4  6 22 22 22 22
nj   2  4  6 22 22 22 22
was  2  4  6 22 22 22 22
orl  2  4  6 22 22 22 22

Have fun!

Chris
cokasaki@cs.cmu.edu


-- 
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| Chris Okasaki       |                          Life is NOT a zero-sum game! |
| cokasaki@cs.cmu.edu |                                                       |
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Newsgroups: rec.sport.basketball.pro