From: huangx@ccu.umanitoba.ca (Xiuqing Huang)
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: SEEKING A DOCTORAL STUDY POSITION OF EDUCATION FORECASTING
Keywords: FORECASTING, PLANNING, MATH MODEL
Date: 6 Apr 92 18:28:58 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada


                 A PROPOSAL FOR INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDY
 
       I am looking for a position of interdisciplinary doctoral study and
expertise as my supervisor whose are interested in planning or forecasting
model and method or economic. I have an M.Ed from the Higher Education
Research Institute, Beijing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics(BUAA)
and a B.S.(Mathematics). I am now working at the Department of
Educational Administration and Foundation, the Faculty of Education, The
University of Manitoba as a Visiting Scholar. Based on the analysis of factors
which affect the education development a recursive dynamic model of
education forecasting has been designed  and a relative software has been
designed and developed by myself and the software named EFSS (stand for
Education Forecasting Support System) has been used in the Planning Bureau
of Beijing City in 1990 for forecasting the education development from 1991
to 2000. The reliability had been evaluated and some results from the
software have been accepted as basic data for education planning in Beijing
City. The main factors affecting education are listed bellow: 
       1. The population and the structure of the population at present
             time.  
       2. The fertility and mortality rate at present time and in future
             (Distribution on each age)
       3. The migration and immigration (in and out).
       4. The rates of students being drop out of schools.
       5. The rates of students being failed to go to next grade and studying
             again.
       6. The proportion for student entering deferent schools after their
             graduation from post schools.
       7. The availability requirement of education funds , facilities and
             proportion of students and teachers.
       8. The development of region economics, which affect the factors 2, 3,
             4, 5, 6, 7 above. And affect factors blow:
       (1). The need of society for higher education , such as students number
             in general, specialities, the financial support for people entering
             university of college
       (2). The financial ability of society for supporting higher education
       This model is designed for regional education forecasting. It can
calculate the number of students in schools, teachers number, number of
students graduated from schools, number of students dropped out from
schools, facilities in schools and etc. Different forecasting methods have been
accepted for different factors, for example, recursive method has been used
to deal with the population and a time series method has been used to deal
with migration and immigration.  
       I would like to improve the model and the software to be suitable to
various region or various developing counties. The model could been
improved in two aspects: the first is that for each factor we could evaluate the
different forecasting methods and choose a better one to deal with a factor.
The second aspect is that we could add the other factors such as economic
and employment which affect the education development to the model. These
factors may be very important to education but the relationship between these
factors and the education is very difficult to determined. Anyone who is
interested could inform me by E-mail and the main idea of my model could
be offered, if necessary. Those who could supply me with information about
this area would greatly appreciated.  
 
 
                            CURRICULUM VITAE
 
                            Mr. Xiuqing Huang
 
 
 
Address:            449 - 99 Dalhousie Drive  (residence)
                    Winnipeg, Manitoba
                    R3T 3M2
 
                    174 Department of Educational Administration
                          and Foundations
                    Faculty of Education
                    University of Manitoba
               toba
                    R3T 2N2
 
Telephone:          Residence:  (204) 275-6783
                    Office:  (204) 474-8548
 
Date & Place of Birth:    October 9, 1957  -  Shandong, P.R. CHINA
 
Personal Status:          Married
 
Present professional position:   Visiting Scholar in University of Manitoba
                                 - Faculty of Education
 
 
Education:   
 
1987 - 1990  Graduate student, Institute of Higher Education Research,
             Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA)
 
1984 - 1985  Studying computer science theory, Computer Science
             Department, The Shandong Polytechnic University
 
1981 - 1984  Studying Mathematics, Mathematics Department, Qufu
             Teachers University (part-time)
 
1981 - 1982  Studying Mathematics, Mathematics Department, Shandong
             University
 
1978 - 1980  Studying Mathematics, Mathematics Department, Linyi
             Teachers College
 
1970 - 1974  Attended secondary school at Shandong Province
 
1964 - 1970  Attended elementary school at Shandong Province

Degrees Held
 
M. Ed.              Institute of Higher Education Research, Beijing
                    University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA),
                    1990
 
B.S.                Qufu Teachers University, 1985
 
 
Employment History
 
Dec. 1991    Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Education, University of
             Manitoba
 
1990 - 1991  Teaching software engineering in Linyi Teachers College as a
             lecturer
 
1985 - 1987  Teaching computer programming language and software
             designing in Linyi Teachers College as a lecturer
 
1980 - 1981  Teaching Mathematics in Linyi Teachers College as a lecturer
 
 
Publications
 
       "Storing the data coming from INPUT statement to the DATA
       statement" Chinese Computer World Monthly January 1990. This
       paper demonstrates the principle of interactive explanation system of
       BASIC and shows how to change the BASIC explanation system.
 
       "Regional Educational Forecasting Support System."  Master's thesis
       at BUAA, September 1990. The basic elements that affect the
       education development have been discussed and a recursive dynamic
       education forecasting model has been designed in the thesis. 
 
       "Software EFSS (Educational Forecasting Support System)." I
       developed the software at Institute of Higher Education research of
       BUAA by September 1990.  This software has been used in The
       Planning Bureau of Beijing City to forecast the development of
       education in the Beijing area through 1991 to 2000 and some results
       calculated out of EFSS has been used as basic data for planning.  The
       EFSS was programmed in PASCAL and more than 3,000 lines.
 
       "The International Encyclopedia of Education Research and Studies"
       translated from English to Chinese, X. Huang et al (forthcoming).
 
 
+---------------------------------------------------------+
| Xiuqing Huang                                           |
| 174 Education Building                                  | 
| Department of Educational Administration and Foundation |
| Faculty of Education                                    |
| The University of Manitoba                              |  
| Canada R3T 2N2                                          |
+---------------------------------------------------------+
| <huangx@ccu.umnitoba.ca>                                |
+---------------------------------------------------------+
 
 
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