From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: The New Yuck Mets:A Look Ahead
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 01:29:19 GMT

In article <kf0Mqfm00iUyI7oqoQ@andrew.cmu.edu> Kevin Paul Goldman <kg1i+@andrew.cmu.edu> writes:
>
>I'm heartened that the Mets dinally decided to adress a weakness instead
>of loading up on names.

You mean Fernandez?  I'm afraid you'll be disappointed.  At this point
his name is worth *far* more than his ability.  He's still good.  He
will hit and field slightly better than your average shortstop.  He's
not going to save the team, however.  And his baserunning is simply
dreadful!  He shouldn't be permitted to ever attempt a SB, and the
manager should fine him $10,000 every time he tries for a triple.

Fernandez is rather a selfish player, in fact.  He'll help the Mets,
but if Bonilla couldn't do the job, Fernandez isn't about to make much
of a difference.

>It takes 9 to win a ball game, putting all the
>pressure on two or three guys to produce 5 runs a game, or on a pitcher
>to strike everyone out, and you get a really talented team losing ball
>games.

Is it the pressure?  Or the age?  One side effect of hiring big name
players is that you spend a lot of money.  (Note that Fernandez is
expensive.)  Another side effect is that you get a team of players
whose best years are behind them.  (Note that Fernandez has hit below
his career averages for the last few years.)  So the expectations will
always outpace the actual performance.  The third major side effect is
that you will be *constantly* plagued by injuries.  Fernandez played
155 games last season, but he's not young any longer...  There's a
significant chance he'll only make it out there 130 times.  (Add up
these chances across the entire team, and the DL will never be
lonely.)

>Now if the Mets would make room for a prospect or two like Howell
>they could have a real defense.

If they had any offense, they might be able to afford such a move.
But their offense (Dykstra, Strawberry, Magadan, HoJo) is gone.
Traded, dumped, part-time, and aging.  Murray had a pretty good year,
hitting almost as well as Bonilla.  (Okay, he was more "clutch",
whatever that means.)  But how many more years will he last at even
*that* level?  And the rest of the offense is a disaster.

>I disagree about Sasser though. I like
>him a lot ( even have his autograph ), but Hundley has the potential to
>be truly awesome. He hit with a lot of power, his average will go up,
>and a catcher who hits 20HR and .220 is a plus.

WHEN did he hit for a lot of power???  Last year, he hit seven HR in
358 AB.  That's *possibly* 10 HR playing full time.  Nowhere *near* 20
HR.  He is still young, but he's not *that* young.  Why do you expect
him to double his HR output?  It might help if he didn't have this
thing against walking.  He walked fewer than 20 times last year.
Considering that working the count (and drawing those free
baserunners) is a major part of a team's offense, I'm not convinced
that he is an offensive plus hitting only .220 with 20 HR.

My predictions for Hundley?  The .220 BA sounds about right.  But
he'll never hit 10 HR in a season (he'll never have a full-time job,
either) and will be known as an offensive zero.

-Valentine
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball