From: larris@igc.apc.org (Lelani Arris)
Newsgroups: sci.environment
Subject: Climate Digest #10 - Sept 1992 (60K
Date: 15 Sep 92 00:37:00 GMT
Nf-ID: #N:cdp:1466601763:000:58322
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!larris    Sep 14 17:37:00 1992


From: Lelani Arris <larris>
Subject: Climate Digest #10 - Sept 1992 (60K)


                 ECIX CLIMATE DIGEST - September, 1992
                                 
                        Volume 2, Number 6

Welcome to the tenth issue of the ECIX Climate Digest.  Included
in this issue is a special supplement on sustainable development,
a discussion of climate change skeptics, information on some new
publications, a discussion of energy supply as it relates to
sustainable development, and more!
                                 
                        TABLE OF CONTENTS

1      Who We Are
2      Editor Sought
3      Skeptics on Climate Change
4      New Ecological Modeling List
5      Ethics and Climate Change
6      New NASA Title on Ozone
7      Flood Risks to British Ports
8      Damaging Bogs Boosts Climate Change
9      CO2 Mitigation Strategies - Energy Choices
10     Energy Supply Key Problem for Sustainable Development

** Special Supplement on Sustainable Development **

11     Earth Council Opens for Business
12     Modeling Limits to Growth
13     New Book: Sourcebook on Sustainable Development

14     ECIX Files Update - Tables of Contents
15     Credits and Contributions

******************************************************************

Who We Are...

ABOUT ECIX 

The purpose of the Energy and Climate Information Exchange (ECIX) 
project is to bring together those people and organizations who 
are active in renewable energy and climate change issues.  It 
supports their work by providing a medium through which they can 
effectively communicate with each other and obtain necessary 
information.

ABOUT THE DIGEST 

The climate digest is a communications tool which acts as an
interface between those who generate information (scientists) and
those who need information (legislators, educators, activists, and
the general public).  The digest draws from EcoNet online
contributions to en.climate and nearly a dozen other conferences, 
as well as from offline contributions from leading participants 
in the field of climate change.  

Each digest describes science and policy issues which link
global climate change and energy issues, and major trends which
are significant, especially to educators and NGOs.  The focus of
the digest will be on "agents for change" and concrete results,
positive or negative.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE

We welcome contributions from our readers.  In order to use your
material we must have it in hand 10 calendar days prior to each
newsletter publication date.  We will publish Climate Digests on
the following dates in 1992: October 19, November 30, and in
January 1993.  Our schedule changed mid-year in order to avoid
publishing in the middle of major international meetings on
climate.  

ABOUT ECONET

We represent an international computer network of environmental
activists, scientists, and educators called EcoNet.  Based in
San Francisco, CA, EcoNet has more than 2,500 users worldwide
who exchange information and electronic mail every day.  EcoNet
was a finalist in the 1991 Smithsonian-Computerworld awards and
received "Special Merit Recognition" from Renew America's
"Searching for Success" program.  Users connect via the
Internet, SprintNet, international public data networks, or
through one of our international partners in Canada, England,
Australia, USSR, Central and South America.

******************************************************************

*** EDITOR SOUGHT ***

by:   Dan Yurman
      ecixdy@igc.org

I have served as the volunteer editor for the Climate Digest 
since June 1991.  In January 1992 there are plans for the Digest 
to expand, and the position of editor will grow with it. 
Currently, I devote about 12-20 hours a month to EcoNet 
activities.  The new position will require about 35 hours a 
month, which is more than I can spare given my other 
responsibilities at work and home.  The November 30, 1992, issue 
will be my last.  I will continue to be associated with the ECIX 
project as a correspondent. 

A new feature is that there are plans to market the newsletter 
by subscription, which means the editor will be compensated for 
his or her work.  If you would like to have an exciting, 
challenging experience assembling an online newsletter on global 
climate change, please contact Lelani Arris, Project Director.  
See the closing information at the end of this issue for ways to 
contact her. 

******************************************************************

SKEPTICS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

[Editor's note: we run so much material on new measurements of
climate change that it seems appropriate to run a review of some
of the skeptical views of the trend toward global warming.]

A reader writes - Is there any information out there on the
following climate change - _doubters_ : The George C. Marshall
Institute; the Climate Council; Robert Balling; Sherwood Idso;
Patrick Michaels;  Robert Jastrow; The information Council for
the Environment;  Richard S. Lindzen; and, of course, Dixie Lee
Ray.

I'm interested in any information folks may have about any of these 
professional climate change disputers (or any others!), especially 
the fallacious arguments they make, and where their money is 
coming from.


COMMENTS ON SKEPTICS

by:     Brad Hurley
        gecr@igc.org

A few thoughts on some of these skeptics:

1) The Marshall Institute consists of several eminent scientists
(Robert Jastrow, William Nierenberg, Frederick Seitz) who have
published several critical reports on climate change theories and
data in the past three years.  Jastrow is convinced that changes
in the Sun's brightness may be responsible for any global warming
that has occurred so far this century, and he warns that if the
Sun enters a quiet phase in the next century (which appears
likely based on long-term solar cycles), it could offset much or
all of the warming projected by models.  Critics of the Marshall
Institute dismiss its work as "noisy junk science" (Jerry Mahlman
of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and say it is
politically motivated, simplistic, and naive.

2) The Climate Council is an organization of one, namely Don
Pearlman.  Pearlman is a former special assistant to Donald Hodel
(the Secretary of Interior under President Ronald Reagan infamous
for his "hats and sunglasses" solution to the problem of ozone
depletion) and is associated with the coal industry.  Pearlman
spends a fair amount of time trying to influence the IPCC's
reports and methodologies; he succeeded in getting the IPCC to
add a disclaimer, in its most recent report, about the
"hypothetical nature" of its emissions scenarios, and I
understand that he now hopes to get the IPCC to broaden its peer
review process to include industry participation.

3) Robert Balling, Patrick Michaels, S. Fred Singer, and Sherwood
Idso are part of a bunch known to some climatologists as "the
Virginia conspiracy." Michaels and Singer are at the University of
Virginia; Singer has recently published a compilation of critiques
of the IPCC report, and he did a survey of IPCC scientists earlier
this year.  Michaels has just written a book about the science
and politics of climate change (with the working title of "The
Satanic Gases"), and he's done a fair bit of touring on the
lecture circuit (largely paid for by coal companies).  Idso, a US
Dept. of Agriculture physicist in Arizona, believes that elevated
CO2 concentrations will boost plant growth so much that the
burgeoning greenery will soak up any extra CO2 that humans put
into the air.  He has produced a video (funded by Western Fuels
Inc., a coal cooperative) called "The Greening of Planet Earth"
that Western Fuels is distributing all over the world.

4) Richard Lindzen is perhaps the most respected scientist in the
bunch.  He's at MIT, and is a noted meteorologist.  Basically,
his theory is that greenhouse warming is self-limiting:  the
earth cools, he says, by convection, not by radiation; as greater
levels of greenhouse gases warm the earth, water vapor will
increase in the atmosphere and enhance convection, providing a
strong cooling effect.  Lots of scientists say he's wrong but
nobody can prove it.

I'd like to offer two points here:  first, from a purely
scientific standpoint, the skeptics are right to challenge the
theories.  We should welcome their critiques and not automatically
dismiss them as wrong.  (Some of them, like Idso, are clearly off
the mark, but Michaels and Balling do raise some challenging
questions.)  The existence of a "consensus" on global warming
doesn't carry much weight among scientists -- you can find plenty
of examples in history where the "consensus" view turned out to be
wrong and the skeptics were right.

Second, it's going to take a long time to prove who's right.  In
that sense, I think the coal interests are wasting a lot of money
promoting the skeptical view.  Any policy maker with a brain will
understand that the science is uncertain.  You can't prove that
the skeptics are wrong, but you can't prove that the believers are
wrong, either.  In that case, you have to weigh the risks of
responding one way or the other.  As California Energy
Commissioner Richard Bilas said recently, "I'm not bothered by
uncertainty.  No decisions that I know of are ever made under
certainty.  I am concerned about risk ..." Here's where the
scientific "consensus" becomes important:  with so many scientists
seeing climate change as a legitimate risk, policy makers should
feel justified in taking some action, regardless of the
uncertainties.

******************************************************************

NEW INTERNET LIST ON ECOLOGICAL MODELING

Joachim Benz
benz@CONY.GSF.DE

The ECOSYS-L mailing list is intended to provide a forum to
discuss problems in the fields of ecosystem theory and modelling.
In addition there should be discussed the current state of the
art and future of standardization and documentation of
mathematical descriptions for ecological processes.

ECOSYS-L can be used also as a forum to discuss results of the
just started research project 'Analysis of existing models of
nutrient-cycles in agro-ecosystems'. One of the main tasks of
this project is, to build up a database of documentations of
mathematical description of ecological processes (ECOBAS).
Information can be requested from ECOBAS via E-mail. (We are
interested to put through this project with a broad discussion
with other researchers. Further information about this project
can be requested from Joachim Benz <benz@gsf.de>.)

To subscribe, send the following command to LISTSERV@DEARN
(bitnet) or LISTSERV@vm.gmd.de (in the BODY of e-mail):

      SUBSCRIBE ECOSYS-L firstname lastname

After subscribing, messages may be sent to the list by sending
to: ECOSYS-L@DEARN (bitnet) or ECOSYS-L@vm.gmd.de.

If you question about how to use  the list, or suggestions for
new uses, please feel free to contact me.

Joachim Benz
University of Kassel
Faculty of Agriculture (FB 20)
Nordbahnhofstr. 1a
D-3430 Witzenhausen
(FRG)

Phone: (+49)-5542-503-560
Fax:   (+49)-5542-503-588
email: benz@gsf.de  OR   C=de; A= ; P=gsf; S=benz (X.400)

******************************************************************

ETHICS & CLIMATE CHANGE  

The following statement on ethical responsibility and climate 
change was put forward by the Calgary Institute for the 
Humanities, University of Calgary, for use as a basis in 
formulating Canada's negotiating strategy at UNCED: 

"There is an ethical obligation to avoid the negative
consequences of humanly induced global warming as long as this
obligation does not affect unacceptably the quality of life of
people, especially those whose quality of life is lowest. There
is a further obligation to ensure that any negative consequences
of warming are allocated equitably among humans and are not
imposed unilaterally on some groups by others.

The ethical bases of these obligations are several. One is the
requirement to avoid needless suffering by humans and non-humans.
Another is the requirement to preserve the natural environment as
something valuable to and valued by humans as a source of good
health, economic resources, recreation and beauty. This second
requirement is one aspect of a larger responsibility to ensure a
decent quality of life for future generations, a responsibility
that is central to the concept of sustainable development.
Finally, there is a duty to preserve nature as something valuable
in itself, apart from its usefulness to humans.

The above ethical obligations can be arrived at either by
secular analysis or from any of the world religions.  All or most
of these obligations should be widely accepted in a pluralist
society."

The statement goes on to list six examples of ethical action:

* we have an obligation to phase out synthetic gases that absorb
terrestrial infra-red radiation

* we must adopt all energy conservation measures that are
economically attractive with full life-cycle costing

* we should provide economic and other incentives for individuals
to take into account the adverse impacts of their decisions and
lifestyles on the environment

* we should work together with developing countries to help them
adopt suitable energy-efficient technologies

* an international convention on reducing GHG emissions should be
negotiated on the basis of equitable principles

* we have a duty to develop international institutions to provide
compensation where appropriate to those who suffer harm as a
result of human-induced global warming.

For further information please contact Harold Coward, Director,
Calgary Institute for the Humanities, University of Calgary, 2500
University Drive N.W., Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 Canada. Telephone
(403) 220-7238, fax (403) 282-7822.

******************************************************************

NEW NASA TITLE ON OZONE
Letter to the Editor

by:    gary@ke4zv

Speaking of NASA publications, anyone interested in the ozone
question should read "Condensed Nitrate, Sulfate, and Chloride in
Antarctic Stratospheric Aerosols" by a large group of NASA
scientists out of Ames Research Center and several universities.
NASA TSP number is ARC-12618.

This publication highlights a very illuminating relationship
between condensed HNO3*3H2O and ozone depletion. There is a very
strong inverse correlation between condensed nitrate
concentration and ozone levels. Condensed nitric acid is not
found above 200 degrees K in the stratosphere. When it is not
present, chloride levels have no statistical relationship with
ozone levels. Since the stratosphere at 18 km only drops below
200 K above 64 degrees latitude, chlorides can only deplete ozone
levels above this latitude. So fear and panic about ozone
depletion by beach dwellers in Southern California is not
warranted. This work seems to show that banning CFCs is similar
to the cyclamate ban of the sixties, a possible over-reaction to
poorly understood correlations.

******************************************************************

FLOOD RISK RISE FOR BRITISH PORTS 
IF GOVERNMENTS FAIL TO ACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

by:     Friends of the Earth
        London, England

Major British towns are likely to face more frequent flooding
due to sea level rise caused by global warming.   Major
floods, such as the East Anglia flood of 1953 and that in
Towyn, North Wales in 1990 [1] could become more common,
concludes research for Friends of the Earth by the School of
Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, published
today [2].  The research shows that:

*    Towns at risk include Newhaven, Portland, Milford Haven,
Cardiff and Colchester.  By 2030 these towns could face what
is now a 1 in 100 year flood [4] every 3 to 5 years [5].  By
the end of the 21st Century they could face annual flooding.

*    Other British ports could face large, albeit not as
great, increases in flood frequency, including Cardiff,
Southampton, Goole, Holyhead (see map).

Doug Parr, Climate Change campaigner said:

     "Government failure to put in place policies to improve
     energy efficiency and cut car use may soon place parts of
     coastal Britain at greater risk from flooding."

The costs of sea defence could soar.  In 1991/92 the National
Rivers Authority alone spent 230 million on flood defence
work. The Thames Barrier cost 500 million.

Other coastal assets will also be at risk, although details of
the precise risks have yet to be quantified.

*    55 National Nature Reserves and 12 internationally-
important Ramsar sites are currently on the British coast.
The damage to natural ecosystems is likely to be greatest
where hard defence structures are chosen for protection.  Soft
defences or abandonment of land will often be the better
adaptation policy.

*    Many of Britain's 450 designated bathing beaches would
become narrower and steeper. Other amenity sites such as golf
courses and many of Britain's 370 coastal marinas would be
affected by erosion or flooding.

*    40 per cent of Britain's industry is located in coastal
or estuarine areas including all fourteen oil refineries.  Sea
level rise could affect transport routes and power
transmission lines.  Water supplies and structures could
become vulnerable to saline intrusion.

 Contact: Fiona Weir, Climate Change Campaigner 071 490 0340
          Doug Parr, Assistant Campaigner       071 253 4991

NOTES TO EDITORS

1. The East Anglia flood of 1953 killed 307 people and 32,000
were forced to leave their homes. Environmental rejuvenation
in Towyn is to cost at least 1.2 million

2.  "Sea level rise in the UK", J.P. Barkham, F.A. MacGuire
and S.J. Jones published by Friends of the Earth, 26-28
Underwood St, London N1 7JQ, 1992, price 8.

3.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Working Group I draws on the experience of 300 of the world's
leading scientists dealing with the climate change issue. The
panel produced projections for sea level rise to the end of
the next century assuming current greenhouse gas emissions.

The IPCC projections of sea level rise were combined with
empirical data on sea levels taken over many years to provide
information about the expected 'return period' of high sea
levels.

4 Flood frequencies are expressed in terms of their return
frequency.  This is the statistical likelihood that a
particular sea level will be reached during a particular time
period, so that statistically the sea height corresponding to
a '1 in 100 year' period will only be experienced once in a
century. A 3 year return period means that the statistical
likelihood is that the sea level will experienced once every
three years. The calculations take no account of possible
increases in storm frequency which may be another impact of
climate change.

5.  The return frequencies of sea levels can be calculated
using data acquired over many years on sea levels at
particular sites in order to produce 'flood return curves'.
The FoE research takes 25 sites around Britain where such
historical information is available. By superimposing the
projected sea level rise on flood return curves, an estimate
of the changed return period of a flood of a particular
magnitude can be obtained (see curves in Appendix A).

******************************************************************

DAMAGING BOGS BOOSTS CLIMATE CHANGE

- commercial peat mining for horticulture and fuel main
culprits.

Research carried out for Friends of the Earth by the Wetland
Ecosystems Research Group [1] confirms that the world's
peatlands are a major carbon store, containing three times as
much carbon as tropical rainforests [2].  Left alone they can
store carbon for thousands of years.  However, human
exploitation of just 7 per cent of the planet's peatlands has
created a long-term annual net carbon dioxide emission
equivalent to 3-5 per cent of annual global fossil fuel
emissions [3]. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main 'greenhouse
gas'.

In the UK, over 45 per cent of the original peatland (both
lowland and upland) has been damaged.  The net annual shift of
CO2 from peatbogs due to disturbance and damage is significant
- in the UK equivalent to over 50% of CO2 emissions from all
domestic households, or 40% of all transport emissions [4].
Robin Maynard, Friends of the Earth's Peat Campaigner, said,
"This research confirms that commercial exploitation of
peatbogs whether in the UK, Ireland, Finland or anywhere else
is unsustainable.  The functional role of peatbogs as carbon
stores, in addition to their undisputed nature conservation
value, demands that Government policy on peatbogs must now be
- 'Do Not Disturb!'"

The research findings have been submitted to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is
considering matters relevant to the recently agreed
international Convention on Climate Change which states that,
'all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse
gases' should be taken into account when considering policies
'to anticipate, prevent or minimise the causes of climate
change and mitigate its adverse effects.' [5]

The research findings and an 'Agenda for Action on Peatbogs'
has also been sent to the Prime Minister. [6]


THE MAIN CAUSES OF CARBON RELEASE FROM PEATBOGS

Per hectare the most rapid release of carbon from a peatland
store is produced in descending order by:

1. Horticultural and fuel peat extraction

The most rapid export of carbon is caused by the mining of
peatbogs for fuel or horticultural peat: on average over 180
tonnes of CO2 per hectare every year - equivalent to the
annual emissions of 50 cars [7].  The UK and Ireland, two of
the world's most intensive horticultural peat exploiters, are
disproportionate contributors to emissions [8].

2. Agriculture

Much of the UK's lowland peatbogs have long been converted to
agriculture.  In the uplands, at least 50% of peatlands may
have been affected by agriculture, mainly moorland drainage or
'gripping'.  Globally, during the 1980s [9], the rate of
conversion of peatland to agriculture may have been as high as
100,000 hectares per annum.  On an area basis, arable cropping
may yield 40-150 tonnes of CO2 per hectare per annum.

3. Forestry

During the 1980s, commercial afforestation affected the
largest area of peatlands globally, amounting to 435,000
hectares per year.  Planting trees on peatbogs, contrary to
popular belief, increases atmospheric CO2 - as more carbon is
released from the drained peatbog than can ever be taken up
and stored by the plantation trees [10].  Annual carbon loss
per hectare is however, at a lower rate than for extraction
and arable cropping, being some 1-10 tonnes of CO2 per hectare
per annum.

For Further Information contact:
Robin Maynard (Senior Campaigner):  071-250 0861
Duncan McLaren (Research Officer):  071-250 0852/490 1555 x421
Adeela Warley (Information Officer):071 490 2677


AGENDA FOR ACTION ON PEATBOGS

In simple terms, to prevent further increases in emissions
further disturbance to peatlands must be avoided.  Friends of
the Earth on the basis of the research findings has submitted
the following Agenda for Action to the UK Government:

1.  All UK agricultural, forestry, and minerals planning
legislation must be reviewed to prevent continuing and further
damage to peatlands.  Specifically, revocation of old planning
permissions for peat extraction must be available to planning
authorities without the current major compensation
implications. Local Authorities currently have the powers
under the Minerals Act 1981 to review and revoke minerals
planning permissions, but this is tied to heavy compensation
requirements.  Any compensation requirements should be limited
to a company's specific investment in excavation and
processing machinery and facilities, not to the potential
value of the peat left in the ground.

2.  The 'wise use' requirement of the Ramsar Convention on
Wetlands of International Importance [11] must be implemented
with regard to the management and protection of peatlands.
The UK is one of sixty-five signatories to the Ramsar
Convention, which seeks to promote the wise use of all
wetlands and special protection for those listed under the
Convention.  'Wise use' is defined as involving , 'the
maintenance of their ecological character, as a basis not only
for nature conservation, but for sustainable development'.
A proposed UK Ramsar site demanding immediate protection is
the Flow Country.  The largest single expanse of blanket bog
in the world and the largest single area of habitat in the UK,
the Flow Country has already suffered severe damage from
forestry and is threatened by commercial fuel peat extraction.
[12]  The Flow Country holds the carbon store equivalent to
the entire remaining area of tropical rainforest in Nigeria.
[13]

3.  Water tables should be maintained on existing peatland
areas, and reinstated wherever conditions are suitable for
peat-forming vegetation to re-establish.  Examples of sites
requiring such comprehensive measures are Thorne and Hatfield
Moors in south Yorkshire - both proposed for designation by
English Nature as Ramsar sites.   These sites, which are still
extensively mined for peat, should be confirmed as Ramsar
sites as soon as possible.


NOTES TO READERS

1.   The Global Status of Peatlands and their Role in Carbon
Cycling  by Philip Immirzi and Edward Maltby with Richard
Clymo is published by Friends of the Earth, (Publications
Department, 26-28 Underwood St., London N1 7JQ; 071-490 1555).
Price 17.00.  A summary version, 'Do Not Disturb! Peatbogs
and the Greenhouse Effect', outlining the research and its
recommendations is also available, priced at 4.50.

2. Globally peatlands cover about 397 million hectares, just 3
per cent of the planet's land area, yet hold 329-528 billion
tonnes of carbon.  Tropical rainforests extend to almost twice
the area of peatlands, but contain less than one third the
carbon.

3. Carbon relations can be measured as a shift, adding the
source created to the lost sink. The annual shift due to land
use change: 0.66-1.00 billion tonnes;  global emissions from
fossil fuels: 21 billion tonnes of CO2

4. The UK peatland carbon shift due to agriculture, forestry
and horticultural extraction is probably equivalent to 5.8-
12.5 Million tonnes (Mt) of CO2. UK domestic emissions of CO2
in 1990 were 22 Mt. transport emissions 30 Mt.

5. The IPCC is the group of international scientists charged
by Governments to produce the background science and
information to guide political action and agreements on
Climate Change.  Greenhouse gas emissions from drainage of
wetlands are included in the methodology for measuring
national emissions.  This Convention was signed up to by over
150 Governments (including the UK) in June 1992 at the Rio
Earth Summit.  Article 3, the Principles of the Convention
states,

'The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate,
prevent or minimise the causes of climate change and mitigate
its adverse effects.  Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should
not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking
into account that policies and measures should take into
account all ...relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of
greenhouse gases and adaptation, and comprise all economic
sectors.  Efforts to address climate change may be carried out
cooperatively by interested Parties.'

6. See attached sheet - 'Agenda for Action on Peatbogs'.

7. Horticultural or fuel extraction: 180 tonnes of CO2 per
hectare, equivalent to the annual emissions of 50 cars;
arable: 40-150 tonnes of CO2 per hectare (on average, 25
cars); pasture and forestry: just 1-10 tonnes of CO2 per
hectare (on average, 3 cars).

8. At present (excluding the former USSR) the UK accounts
for about 8 per cent of horticultural production, despite
holding just 0.7 per cent of the world's peatlands and Ireland
3 per cent on 0.5 per cent of peatlands.

9. The most recent data available is for the 1980s. The rates
of land-use change may have changed since then.

10. The release of stored CO2 through peat wastage is often
greater than the accumulation of carbon through photosynthesis
into plant matter.  Although under optimal conditions, forest
growth might accumulate carbon more rapidly than the bog is
releasing it, the carbon pool in the trees will never exceed
the amount of carbon in the maximum standing biomass, which
for most temperate species, rarely exceeds 100 tonnes of
carbon per hectare, reached over a century or so.  On the
other hand, virtually the entire carbon store of the peatbog
(often over 1,500 tonnes of carbon per hectare) will
eventually be released. Even if the carbon is withheld as wood
products, the carbon will be released by decay. Using
realistic decay functions, the Forestry Commission has
demonstrated that the maximum in the UK (even on more
productive, non-peat soils) is only 135 tonnes per hectare.

11. The Convention on Wetlands of International Importance
Especially as Waterfowl Habitat was drawn up and signed on
2/2/1971 in the town of Ramsar in Iran, hence 'Ramsar
Convention.'  Ramsar seeks to promote the wise use of all
wetlands and special protection for wetlands on the
convention's list.

12. The Flow Country covers the extensive tracts of blanket
bog of Caithness and Sutherland in Scotland.  Extending for
some 400,000 hectares, 1/5th of the Flow Country has already
been drained and planted with conifers.  Other threats include
a recently installed factory for producing peat-based barbecue
fuel, and a proposal to export peat to burn in Swedish power
stations.

13. Per metre depth, an average peatbog will hold 550 tonnes
of carbon per hectare.  Assuming the peat averages 2.25 metres
in depth, then it will hold over 1200 tonnes of carbon per
hectare, and a total store of almost 500 million tonnes.  This
is equivalent to 3 million hectares of tropical moist forest
(at 165 tonnes of carbon per hectare).

******************************************************************

CO2 MITIGATION STRATEGIES
ENERGY CHOICES

Editor's note: here are two reports on the relationships between
uses of energy and climate change.


AMERICA'S ENERGY CHOICES

by:     dean@vexcel.com

The following is a summary from the report "America's Energy
Choices - Investing in a Strong Economy and a Clean Environment",
put together by the following groups:

Alliance to Save Energy
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Natural Resources Defense Council
Union of Concerned Scientists

The report is 122 pages so I have necessarily pulled out a few
highlights. I will fill in more details if people want to see
them, including any specific questions people may have.

The report analyzes four scenarios for energy policy in the U.S.:

Reference scenario - adapted from the Dept of Energy projections

Market scenario - makes use of cost-effective energy-efficiency
and renewable energy technologies, assuming moderate market
penetration rates, with no accounting for environmental or
security costs beyond those embodied in current trends (e.g., the
Clean Air Act).

Environmental scenario - employs additional energy-efficiency and
renewable energy resources to the extent justified by the
environmental and security costs of fossil fuels, and assuming
more rapid market penetration rates.

Climate Stabilization scenario - designed to achieve carbon
dioxide emissions targets consistent with an effective
international program to limit global warming (a 25% reduction in
US CO2 emissions by 2005 and at least a 50% reduction by 2030).

Three guiding principles are used:
Harness market forces
Make efficiency the standard
Invest in the future

Modeling was performed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute -
Boston Center at Tellus Institute.  The modeling program is
called Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) And
Environmental Database (EDB). They compared the results with 6
other studies - 2 by the DOE, 2 by the US Office of Technology
Assessment, 1 by ICF Inc. for the EPA, and 1 from MIT.  There were
a variety of agreements and disagreements, with the DOE studies
(for the NES) the most energy intensive and this study at the
other end.  Most financial calculations use a 3% discount rate,
although a few alternative calculations are made at other rates.

There are extensive details and breakdowns for energy use by
industrial sector and transportation type, for different types on
construction and so on.

Long-term economic modeling of this type is highly controversial
and some people feel that it is a total waste of time.  Others
will just take it with a grain of salt.  Nevertheless, many want
to get the best estimates that are available and when people
start throwing around these "trillions of dollars" and "millions
of deaths" claims, some type of analysis should be performed,

******************************************************************

ENERGY SUPPLY IS KEY PROBLEM FOR
SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

by:     tgray@igc.org

From Wind Energy Weekly, Vol. 11, #498, May 11, 1992, published by 
the American Wind Energy Association. 

The current system of global energy production and consumption
must undergo significant change if humanity is to achieve a
sustainable society in the future, according to Professor John
Holdren of the University of California-Berkeley.

Holdren spoke on "Energy, Environment and Sustainability" at a
seminar May 2 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H.  The event
marked the 20th anniversary of the publication of Limits to
Growth, a book by global experts of an organization called the
Club of Rome.  Limits to Growth was highly controversial when
published and launched a debate that continues today about global
resources and their ability to meet rising human demands.

Energy is central to the problem of designing a human society
that is sustainable in the long run, Holdren said in a
wide-ranging talk that emphasized the need to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources such as wind
and solar.

Energy, he said, has been characterized by three difficulties:

o    Historically, there has been too little of it to meet basic
     needs for all.

o    At times, it has also been too costly, leading to reductions
     in the standard of living, recession and an increase in debt.

o    It's too risky, posing dangers to human health and the
     environment and leading to political instability because of
     the uneven distribution of energy resources (e.g., large
     amounts of world oil reserves being concentrated in the Middle
     East).

Current world industrial energy supply is more than three-quarters
(77 percent) dependent on fossil fuels, Holdren said.  Of a global
supply of 11.7 Terawatts (average) (TWa) (trillion watts), 4.5 TWa
comes from oil, 3.2 TWa from coal, and 2.5 TWa from natural gas --
all fossil fuels -- while hydro supplies 0.8 TWa and nuclear 0.7
TWa.

The world will not run out of fossil fuels any time soon, he added,
since known reserves still will last hundreds of years.  "But we
are running out of other things, including: cheap oil and gas;
cheap hydropower; the absorptive capacity of our natural
environment; the tolerance of the world's poor for the current
inequity in supply; money to fund the development of alternative
energy technologies; time to adjust; and resolve to act."

The world's energy supply system, Holdren said, is just too large
in scale for rapid change:  "This is an industry with $8-9 trillion
worth of installed production capacity.  Changing it is going to be
like steering a supertanker -- it will take time, and respond
slowly."  At the same time, he said, energy policymakers are
paralyzed.  While there is talk of using market mechanisms to deal
with problems, "we haven't had a properly functioning energy market
for the last 100 years -- instead, we have a terribly complicated
system of subsidies and tax breaks that distort decisions."

Of the series of problems facing the world in the energy area
today, Holdren said, environmental degradation is the "most
intractable," with the composition of the atmosphere, climate
processes, water supply, soils, and biological diversity all being
affected by energy.

"A hundred years ago, you could say most human activity was still
on a small scale compared with natural processes, but that is no
longer the case.  Humans have become a global chemical force."

Holdren identified a number of chemical processes in which human
actions now have reached a scale roughly comparable to nature,
including:

o    Atmospheric lead flow:  human contribution is 15 times that
     from natural processes, with 63 percent of it coming from
     energy production-related activities.

o    Ocean oil flow:  human contribution 10 times natural, with 60
     percent coming from energy production.

o    Cadmium:  human contribution eight times natural, with 20
     percent coming from energy.

o    Sulfur oxides:  human contribution 1.5 times natural, with 85
     percent from energy.

o    Methane (a leading greenhouse gas):  human contribution
     roughly equal to natural, with 25 percent from energy.

o    Carbon dioxide (the most important greenhouse gas): human
     contribution 3/10 of natural, with 80 percent from energy.

During the past 20 years alone, Holdren noted, the world's
population has increased by 45 percent, and its total energy
production has risen by 90 percent.  At the same time, a variety of
environmental problems, ranging from acid rain to a rising rate of
species extinction, have become apparent.

What are the main elements of a global energy policy to address
these problems?  According to Holdren, they are:

o    Increase efficiency of end use.  U.S. energy use per capita,
     he said, should be cut by at least 50 percent.

o    Reduce the environmental impacts of today's energy sources
     through better pollution control, nuclear safety, and biomass
     harvesting techniques.

o    Begin the transition to alternative energy sources, including
     fusion, geothermal, solar and wind.

o    Expand international cooperation and assistance.  "We may
     solve these problems in the U.S. and Europe without
     international cooperation, but we won't solve them in India,
     China and the former Soviet Union."

o    Stop world population growth at a level of 10 billion.  "This
     is going to be tough.  The average woman today has 3.5
     children, and we'll need to reduce that to 2.1 by the year
     2025 to reach this goal."

What difference could a strong effort to put these policies into
effect make during the next 100 years?

o    World population would be held to 10 billion instead of a
     projected business-as-usual (BAU) level of 13.4 billion by the
     year 2090, a 25 percent reduction.

o    World energy use would be held to 30 TWa (about three times
     today's consumption), a reduction of 70 percent below a BAU
     level of 100 TWa (nearly nine times current use).  (At the
     same time, global per-capita energy use would be stabilized at
     3 kW/person, or about one-fourth of present U.S. usage per
     person.)

o    World fossil energy use would be reduced to 5 TWa (about half
     the current level), a reduction of more than 90 percent from
     the BAU scenario level of 60 TWa (six times present
     consumption).

The problem is "worse than economists and politicians think,"
Holdren said, because of several ways in which the real world
differs from what they assume:  humanity is more dependent on the
environment; the environment is more easily damaged; the growth in
human needs is greater; the forces of the market are less powerful
(unless noneconomic costs are taken into account); and the time
lags in diagnosing problems are greater.

Because decisionmakers are off base in their assumptions, he added,
the U.S. is today underinvesting in energy efficiency and new
sources of energy, and is "sabotaging" efforts to reach an
international agreement to guard against the possibility of climate
change.

******************************************************************

*********************************************
* SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT TO ECIX CLIMATE DIGEST *
* ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT                *
*********************************************

Editor's note: Because our publication schedule straddled the
UNCED Conference we decided to bring you a special supplement on
sustainable development, focusing on those aspects of the issue
which impact on global climate change.

******************************************************************

EARTH COUNCIL OPENS FOR BUSINESS

by: jpasztor@igc.apc.org

San Jose, Costa Rica

President Rafael Angel Calderon and Maurice Strong announced the
opening of the offices of the Organizing Committee of the Earth
Council, which will be based in San Jose, Costa Rica. This
follows from the initiative to establish the Earth Council
proposed by the Government of Costa Rica at the Earth Summit. Mr.
Strong has agreed to become Chairman of the Organizing Committee
following completion of his term as Secretary-General of the
United Nations 1992 Earth Summit Conference on Environment and
Development.

The Earth Council will be an independent, international, broadly
representative group of eminent non-governmental persons from
many nations.  Nominations for membership of the Council are now
being invited from interested organizations and groups, and
members will be selected on the basis of broad consultations.

Sponsors of the Earth Council include the International Council
of Scientific Unions (ICSU), the World Conservation Union (IUCN)
and the Society for International Development.  A number of
leading professional and policy institutes and citizens groups
from all parts of the world will also be associated with the
Council, which will draw on their broad range of capacities and
expertise.

The Earth Council will seek to become a major focal point for
promoting and facilitating follow-up and implementation of the
agreements reached at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June
and cooperation amongst various non-governmental and citizen
groups for this purpose. It will complement, supplement and
utilize the expertise of others rather than duplicate or compete
with them. An important related objective will be to help achieve
the aims and mission of the Sustainable Development Commission
expected to be established by the United Nations General Assembly
at its forthcoming session in response to the recommendations of
the Earth Summit.

Noting that the full Organizing Committee had yet to meet, Mr.
Strong said that it would be premature to provide more than
preliminary information about the Council.  He said that further
details will be made available following the first meeting due to
be held shortly.

Mr. Strong described the present concept of the Earth Council in
the following terms:

"The Earth Council will actively promote world-wide awareness,
understanding and resolution of major planetary problems:
poverty, underdevelopment, environmental deterioration,
unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and
population growth. By providing objective information, fair and
unbiased evaluation, public dialogue and constructive
suggestions, the Council will encourage international
organizations, governments, the private sector and other groups
and individuals to respond in a vigorous and timely manner to
these challenges. In particular the Council will seek to provide
a new, strong and independent force for action based on the
momentum developed and the commitments made at the Earth Summit.
It will provide a global focal point for information on public
and private progress in achieving sustainable development and an
international citizens network of monitoring and interchange
based on the capacities and expertise of many existing networks."

The challenge of contributing towards global sustainable
development strategies, particularly from the perspective of
developing countries, is a major feature of the Earth Council.
Initial financing is being provided by ECOFUND '92 and additional
support will be sought in many countries from foundations,
corporations, individuals and other sources.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
     Earth Council Organizing Committee
     San Jose, Costa Rica
     Tel: (506)233-418   Fax: (506)552-197

******************************************************************

MODELING LIMITS TO GROWTH

Editor's Note: The original reports by the Club of Rome raised
the consciousness of may people about the state of the global
environment.  Here are two reports which will bring you up to
date on what has happened with the work of the Club of Rome.
Also, we'll tell you how to make your own Club of Rome models on
a personal computer.  This is not something you could do in 1976!


NEW BOOK: BEYOND THE LIMITS: Global Collapse or a Sustainable
Future Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers

Twenty years ago when the Club of Rome published its report, The
Limits of Growth,  it created headlines around the world, sold
nine million copies in 29 languages and triggered huge debate and
controversies amongst academics and experts. Most important of
all, it sensitized public attention and concern on the whole
question of our planet's carrying capacity.

Now, three of its principal authors have written a sequel, Beyond
the Limits, already being received no differently. With a more
refined version of their system dynamics model, an expanded
analysis of the Earth's capacity to absorb wastes, and the latest
data on a new and wide range of subjects they project a number of
possible future scenarios. The results they reach are even more
striking than their earlier conclusions. On almost all
combinations of assumptions their projections show the world
moving towards uncontrollable global collapse, probably within
the lifetimes of some alive today. But they still view a
post-growth revolution to achieve sustainability as technically
and economically feasible. The choice and the warning they
present is clear: global collapse or a sustainable future.

Building on the drastic projections of its predecessor, Beyond 
the Limits concludes that the use of natural resources and 
generation of pollutants has already crossed sustainable rates 
and if left unchecked a decline in per-capita food production, 
industrial capacity, life-expectancy and health indicators is 
inevitable. To avoid this dreary predicament, they prescribe an 
immediate change in life styles to increase efficiency of 
materials and energy use, to decrease consumption and population 
rates, and to begin balancing long and short term goals with 
greater compassion and care, and enhancing equity and quality of 
life of all peoples. A tall order by any description, the book 
is, however, weak on suggesting exactly how this change may be 
operationalized. 

The doomsday attitude of the authors' projections is reminiscent 
of their earlier work and, even though tempered by the option of 
travelling the `sustainability' path, has generated exactly the 
same criticism about their model and its findings. Despite the 
validity of some of the technical critique on their model and 
the inherent uncertainties of the systems they are considering, 
Beyond the Limits is important for the very same reasons that 
made The Limits to Growth a landmark work. Gro Harlem 
Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway and Chairman of the World 
Commission on Environment and Development describes the book as 
"essential reading for everybody who is concerned with the 
central issue of our times: how to achieve a transition to a 
sustainable global future." 

Even where Beyond the Limits is weak on specific solutions, it 
serves a vital function in highlighting the necessity to change. 
Like The Limits to Growth, it has reopened and reinvigorated a 
debate that needs to take place, irrespective of its outcome. 

The book is well designed and quite readable with a number of
charts to illustrate the authors' points.  A quantitative
background is not necessary to gain value from reading it.
Interestingly, the book also takes a shot at values analysis
discussing human capacity for sharing planetary resources as
opposed to competing for them.

Chelsea Green Publishing Co.
Post Mills, Vermont
1-800-639-4099
ISBN: 0-930031-55-5  hardcover $20, 300 pgs.


MAKE YOUR OWN CLUB OF ROME MODELS

by:     Ken Simons
        ks3y+@andrew.cmu.edu

There have been a number of inquiries in the Usenet groups
sci.environment and sci.systems about follow-up modeling efforts to
the original Club of Rome Study "Limits to Growth."  here is what
I know about these studies.

Copies of model for "Beyond the Limits" are available for STELLA
from the Laboratory for Interactive Learning (address below).
There is a charge for the model.  The modeling program STELLA II
is available from High Performance Systems, Inc. (address below),
or from mail order Macintosh software firms.  STELLA II is
virtually identical with another product, iThink, sold by the
same company.  The manual for iThink is geared toward people who
use spreadsheets, while the manual for STELLA II hops directly
into systems thinking.  Call the company for details.  You can
use the Beyond the Limits model in either STELLA II or iThink.
The company used to have, and may still have, academic discounts.

For ease of use and for educational purposes, I definitely prefer
STELLA II over Dynamo.  It has a visually-oriented interface. You
can lay out the model on the screen and see it as a diagram.
Unfortunately, STELLA ONLY RUNS ON MACINTOSH COMPUTERS.  If you
do not have access to Macintosh computers, then you can use
Dynamo (from Pugh Roberts, Inc.; address below), or other
modeling programs available for PCs and workstations may be able
to read and use Dynamo models.  Other programs include DYSMAP2
and Vensim (both of which are described in a recent issue of the
"European Journal of Operational Research," vol. 59 no. 1, pages
203-209 & 216-219) and SimTek (available from ModellData A/S and
in 1990 priced at $280 / $168 educational, address below).

A Macintosh program called "Beyond the Limits" will be available
this fall for a low price from the Laboratory for Interactive
Learning (address below).  It requires that you have HyperCard
version 2.0 or newer (free with all new Macintosh computers).
This program is much easier to use than STELLA, Dynamo, etc.  It
lets you simulate the "Beyond the Limits" model, draw graphs over
time of any variables in the model, and change any of the factors
that the authors of the book change.

It includes some introductory discussion about how to use the
model and about real-world goings-on that are background
knowledge for the ideas in the model.  It also discusses what's
going on inside the model when you make changes to it.  To change
the model in ways not done in the book, you have to either buy
the STELLA (or Dynamo) version of the model, or wait a while for
the next version of this "Beyond the Limits" program.  (Future
versions will probably allow people to change the model to
address criticisms, additional influences not in the original
model, and misconceptions.  Hopefully, future versions will allow
people to view diagrams of the model, then click on any part of
those diagrams for an explanation and equation of that part, and
if desired change any constant or "table function."  Diagrams of
the model that don't let you click for information are included
in the about-to-be-released version.)

If you want to pursue this topic you will of course need to read
the book "Beyond the Limits" (Chelsea Green Publishing Co.,
address below). It does no good to play around with the model
unless you first understand the point of the model and how the
authors use it and interpret it.  If you want to delve seriously
into the model, you may also want the book "Dynamics of Growth in
a Finite World" (Productivity Press, address below).  This book
documents the model, for each part giving a summary of relevant
scientific work, and explaining why the authors formulated the
model the way they did.  If you need references to get acquainted
with modeling of dynamic systems, let me know.

Good luck and have fun!

ADDRESSES

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
Hood House
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824
Phone: (603) 862-2186
Fax: (603) 862-1488

High Performance Systems, Inc.
45 Lyme Road, Suite 300
Hanover, NH 03755
Phone: (603) 643-9636
Fax: (603) 643-9502

Pugh Roberts, Inc.
41 William Linskey Way
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: (617) 864-8880
Fax: (617) 661-7418

ModellData A/S
N-5120 Manger
Norway
Phones as of 1990: +47 5 19 57 67
.................  +47 5 37 40 09
Fax as of 1990: +47 5 37 35 00

Chelsea Green Publishing Co.
Post Mills, Vermont
1-800-639-4099

Productivity Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
1-800-274-9911

******************************************************************

NEW BOOK:  Sourcebook On Sustainable Development

by:     iisd@web.apc.org

The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
publishes the "Sourcebook On Sustainable Development." This book
will interest organizations and individuals who want to know who
else is thinking and acting globally - about sustainable
development. The book, organized in the form of a directory, with
introductory pieces, is divided into these sections:

Organizations. A list of 70 mostly international organizations
and their contribution to sustainable development. This list
includes some NGOs, selected international research and
development organizations, key organizations of the United
Nations, etc.

Publications. Seminal material as well as academic and research
publications. These (about 450 titles) have been assembled by
searching the major online databases and other sources. The
literature covered indicates ongoing research.

Audio-visual. The most contemporary and important producers and
distributors of audio-visuals about sustainable development and
their work are described.

Computer networks. Computer networks and conferencing systems
pertinent to sustainable development are characterized. Includes
APC, TCN, GeoNet, BITNET, the Internet, Usenet, CompuServe, etc.
Input from specialists at Web (Rory O Brien) and of Paul Osborn
(The One Foundation) is acknowledged.

Online databases. The most important sources or host systems and
databases are described and the results of searching for
information on sustainable development are explained. This will
interest librarians, and others, as well as specialists seeking
online sources of information on sustainable development.

"Sourcebook on Sustainable Development" fills a void. Richard
Labelle (rlabelle@web.apc.org), developed the book for the
analyst who needs to know the nature and structure of information
on the subject, and how to remain aware of issues and trends.
"Sourcebook is a first stop for those seeking information on
sustainable development, and wanting to know where to go for
more," says Labelle.

International Institute for Sustainable Development
6th floor - 161 Portage Avenue East
Winnipeg, Manitoba
CANADA  R3B 0Y4
fax: (204) 958-7710
e-mail: iisd@web.apc.org

1-4 copies - CAD $20 each; 5 or more - CAD $18 each; 10 or more -
CAD $10 each. Prices include taxes and surface mail.  For
airmail, add CAD $5 per book.

******************************************************************

ECIX FILES UPDATE
ECIX File Distribution Service

by:     larris@igc.org

For those of you who have thought about retrieving back issues of
ECO, the ECIX Newsletter, the ECIX Climate Digest, or Tiempo via
ftp from igc.org.....

Now available - the tables of contents ONLY for these
publications so that you can scan them before retrieving the much
larger complete files.

All of these files are available via anonymous ftp from igc.org,
or via email from ecixfiles@igc.apc.org.  I will be updating them
as new issues are published.

In the subdirectory /pub/ECIX

ecixtc      - Tables of contents for the ECIX project newsletter
climdigtc   - Tables of contents for the ECIX Climate Digest
tiempotc    - Tables of contents for Tiempo

In the subdirectory /pub/ECO

ecotc       - Tables of contents for all issues of ECO to date

If you are not familiar with our file distribution service, send a
note to ecixfiles@igc.apc.org and I will send you an information
file.

******************************************************************
Lelani Arris                            * Project Director
EcoNet:    larris                       * EcoNet Energy & Climate
Internet/Fidonet:  larris@igc.apc.org   * Information Exchange
BITNET:    larris%igc.org@stanford      * Box 1061
Telephone: 403-852-4057                 * Jasper, Alberta T0E 1E0
Fax:       403-852-5173                 * Canada
******************************************************************

******************************************************************

CREDITS

The Climate Digest is edited by Dan Yurman.
email: ecixdy@igc.org

EcoNet is a service of the Institute for Global Communication, 18 
De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94107. (415) 442-0220.  For 
subscription information send email to: support@igc.org.  The 
ECIX project is supported by a grant from the Joyce Mertz-
Gilmore Foundation, with added support from the Energy 
Foundation.  For more information about the ECIX project, 
contact Lelani Arris, ECIX Project Director, Box 1061, Jasper, 
AB T0E 1E0, Canada, phone 403-852-4057, e-mail larris@igc.org 
(Internet). 

-----------------------------------------------------------------
CONTRIBUTIONS

Contributions to the digest (either news or discussion) are 
encouraged.  Send submissions to the editor via e-mail or ASCII 
on IBM-formatted diskette: 

* ------------------------------------------------------------- *
* Dan Yurman              | Internet:  ecixdy@igc.org           *
* Climate Digest Editor   |   Bitnet:  ecixdy%igc.org@stanford  *
* EcoNet Energy & Climate | MCI Mail:  364-1277                 *
* Information Exchange    |    Phone:  208-524-6374             *
* ------------------------------------------------------------- *
*    Surface mail: PO Box 1569, Idaho Falls, Idaho 83403  USA   *
Newsgroups: sci.environment,talk.environment,rec.autos