From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast and Review
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date:  2 Apr 92 23:31:19 GMT

                ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                          April 03 to April 12, 1992

                 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                    P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
                                   T0K 2E0
                     Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008

                                  ---------

SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
----------------------------------------------------

10-DAY SOLAR/RADIO/MAGNETIC/AURORAL ACTIVITY OUTLOOK

  | Solar |HF Propagation  +/- CON|VHF SID ENH.  AU.BKSR  DX| Mag| Aurora |
  |Activty|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|SIG LO MI HI  LO MI HI  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
--|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------|
03| LO-MOD|VG  G  F  F  40  00  70|  N 25 25 10  01 20 30 20|4 14|NV NV LO|
04| LO-MOD|VG  G  F  F  40  00  70|  N 25 25 10  01 20 25 20|4 14|NV NV LO|
05| LO-MOD|VG  G  F  F  30  00  70|  N 20 20 05  01 15 20 20|3 12|NV NV LO|
06|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  20  00  65|  N 15 15 05  01 15 20 20|3 10|NV NV LO|
07|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  20  00  65|  N 10 10 05  01 10 20 20|2 10|NV NV LO|
08|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  20 +05  65|  N 10 10 05  01 10 20 25|2 10|NV NV LO|
09|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  20 +05  65|  N 10 10 05  01 10 20 25|2 10|NV NV LO|
10|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  20 +05  60|  N 10 10 05  01 10 20 25|2 10|NV NV LO|
11|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  30 +05  60|  N 10 10 05  01 10 20 25|2 10|NV NV LO|
12|  LOW  |VG  G  F  F  30 +05  60|  N 15 15 10  01 10 20 25|2 10|NV NV LO|

DEFINITIONS:

Date (day only)
Possible Magnitude of Solar Flaring (LOW=C-class, MOD=M-class, HIGH=M or X)
HF Propagation Conditions for LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and POlar areas (see below)
HF Short Wave Fade Probability (in %)
HF Maximum Usable Frequency in +/- percent above seasonal normals.
HF Prediction CONfidence Level (in %)
VHF SIGnal Quality (see below)
VHF Sudden Ionospheric ENHancement Probs (in %) for LOw, MIddle, HIgh Lats
VHF AUroral BacKScatteR Probs (in %) for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes
VHF Overall Global DX Potential (in %) - weighted for Low and Middle latitudes
Geomagnetic Activity Kp Index (peak value - see below)
GeoMAGnetic Activity Ap Index (peak value - see below)
AURORAl Activity for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes (see below)

HF Prop. Quality rated as: EG=Extremely Good, VG=Very Good, G=Good, F=Fair,
   P=Poor, VP=Very Poor, EP=Extremely Poor.
VHF Sig. Quality rated as: AN=Above Normal, N=Normal, BN=Below Normal,
   D=Disturbed (ex. associated with polar blackouts).
Kp Planetary Index rated: 0=V.Quiet, 1=Quiet, 2=Unstld, 3=Active, 4=V.Active,
   5=Minor Storm, 6=Major Storm, 7=Maj-Sev Storm, 8=Severe Storm, 9=V.Severe.
Ap Planetary Index rated: 0-7=Quiet, 8-16=Unstld, 17-29=Active,
   30-49=Minor Storm, 50-99=Major Storm, Severe Storm >=100.
Auroral Activity rated: NV=Not Visible, LO=Low, MO=Moderate, HI=High,
   VH=Very High.


PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (03 APR - 12 APR)
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |***|***|***|***|** |** |** |** |** |** | NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|

                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%

NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.


60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY

         ____________________________________________________________
     65 |    J                                                       |
     62 |    J           J                                           |
     58 |    J           J                                           |
     55 |    J           J                                           |
     52 |    J           J                                           |
     49 |    J           J   J                                       |
     46 |   MJ           J   J                                       |
     42 |   MJ           J   J M                                     |
     39 |   MJ          MJ   J M                                     |
     36 |   MJ          MJ   JMM                                     |
     32 |   MJ          MJ   JMM                                     |
     29 |   MJ          MJ   JMM                                     |
     26 |   MJA         MJ   JMM A                                   |
     23 |   MJA         MJ   JMM A                                   |
     20 |   MJA         MJA AJMM A                 A     A           |
     16 |   MJA         MJA AJMM AA                A   A A           |
     13 |  UMJA       U MJA AJMM AA       AAUU     A   A A U   UUUU  |
     10 |  UMJA U    UU MJAUAJMM AAUUUU  UAAUUU  UUAU  AUAUUU UUUUU U|
      6 |UUUMJAUUUU  UUUMJAUAJMMUAAUUUUUUUAAUUU  UUAU  AUAUUUUUUUUUUU|
      3 |UUUMJAUUUUQQUUUMJAUAJMMUAAUUUUUUUAAUUUQQUUAU  AUAUUUUUUUUUUU|
      0 |UUUMJAUUUUQQUUUMJAUAJMMUAAUUUUUUUAAUUUQQUUAUQQAUAUUUUUUUUUUU|
         ------------------------------------------------------------
                         Chart Start Date:  Day #036

NOTES:
     This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
     A-index or the Boulder A-index.  Graph lines are labelled according
     to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day.  The left-
     hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
     Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
     J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
----------------------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
295 |                                                            |
288 |*                                                           |
281 |*                                                           |
274 |*                                                           |
267 |**                                                          |
260 |**                                                          |
253 |**                    ***                                   |
246 |****                 ****                                   |
239 |******  *            *****                                  |
232 |****** **           *******                                 |
225 |*********           *******                                 |
218 |**********          ********                                |
211 |**********         *********                                |
204 |*********** *  ** **********                                |
197 |***************** ***********                               |
190 |*****************************                           * * |
183 |*****************************                       *  ** **|
176 |******************************     *               *********|
169 |******************************     ***    *    *   *********|
162 |*******************************    ********   *** **********|
155 |************************************************************|
148 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #033


GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
-----------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
226 |                                                            |
225 |                           *****                            |
224 |                         *********                          |
223 |                        ***********                         |
222 |                       *************                        |
221 |                      ***************                       |
220 |                      ****************                      |
219 |                     ******************                     |
218 |                    *********************                   |
217 |                   ***********************                  |
216 |                  **************************                |
215 |                ********************************            |
214 |              ***********************************           |
213 |            ***************************************         |
212 |         ********************************************       |
211 |       **********************************************       |
210 |     *************************************************      |
209 |   ****************************************************     |
208 | *******************************************************    |
207 |**********************************************************  |
206 |*********************************************************** |
205 |************************************************************|
204 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #033

NOTES:
     The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
     by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
     Ottawa).  High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
     activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
     The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day
     mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
---------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
325 |                                                            |
314 |*                                                           |
303 |*                        *                                  |
292 |*                        *                                  |
281 |*  * * *                **                                  |
270 |* ** * *                **                                  |
259 |* ** * **              ***                                  |
248 |**** * ***            *****                                 |
237 |**********            *****                                 |
226 |**********  *         *****                                 |
215 |**********  *         *****             ***                 |
204 |********** **      * ******             ***          *      |
193 |*************     **********            ***          **     |
182 |*************   * ***********       *  ****          ** *   |
171 |*************   * *************     *******          *****  |
160 |***************** *************   * *******       *  ****** |
149 |*******************************   *********       *  *******|
138 |*******************************   **********      **********|
127 |*******************************   **********      **********|
116 |*********************************************  ** **********|
105 |********************************************* **************|
094 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #033

NOTES:
     The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
     daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC.


HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (03 APR - 12 APR)

                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
 -------   |           POOR |*  |*  |*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |***|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   85%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
        NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
   Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 30      deg. S.


POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (03 APR - 12 APR)
   INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS

                   HIGH LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
| QUALITY  |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*| | | | | | | | |
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|


                  MIDDLE LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
| QUALITY  |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*| | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |   |   |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*| | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

                    LOW LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
| QUALITY  |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*| | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|

NOTES:
      These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz
bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts.  For more information, request the document
"Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca" or
"COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".  This document, as well as others and related
data and forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.


AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (03 APR - 12 APR)

                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |            LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |            LOW | * | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   95%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

NOTE:
     For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca"
or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and
related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.


**  End of Report  **