From: baseball@catch-the-fever.scd.ucar.edu (Gregg Walters)
Subject: Re: CUB'S MADDUX EASY CHOICE FOR CY
Organization: Scientific Computing Divison/NCAR Boulder, CO
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 1992 23:15:59 GMT

In article <1992Sep3.161236.4235@lmpsbbs.comm.mot.com>, dougb@comm.mot.com (Doug Bank)writes:

> In article <1992Sep3.051537.719@sunb10.cs.uiuc.edu>, epstein@sparc9.cs.uiuc.edu (Milt Epstein) writes:
> |> So, if the statement above about how many HR's have been hit in
> |> Wrigley this year is in fact true, that lends credence to the
> |> hypothesis that conditions there have been more favorable for pitchers
> |> this year.  And as to it being just one piece of evidence, the fact
> |> that the Cubs pitchers' ERAs are so low is in fact another piece of
> |> evidence supporting this hypothesis (and it is equally plausible, if
> |> not more so, than the hypothesis that the Cubs' pitchers have been
> |> pitching great this year).
>
> Saturday the wind blew out.  There were 6 home runs.
> Sunday the wind blew out.  Bullinger pitched a 1 hitter.
>

Wasn't that a gem?  Did you see Will Clark's antics in the dugout
after his 3rd AB when he flied out to Dascenzo.  It seemed that he
bashed every inanimate object he could find.  And the other guys
on the bench, nervously avoiding him, looking at their feet, the
ceiling, etc... hee, hee.

Maddux is having an outstanding year.  On the mound, he has the look
of a pitcher who knows he is controlling the game.  He didn't have that
look when he first came up.  Mad Dog, at age 26, barring injury, if
he does not get the Cy Young this year, will be the man to beat in
the future.

Connors has worked wonders coaching this year.  Scanlan may be the best
example.  A skinny nervous kid last year turned confident with a mean
new forkball.

The naysayers probably don't know that the latest Cubs farm products
showed little offensive ability, slugging or otherwise, in the minors.
And the future looks even grimmer.  Yes, the Wrigley scoring condition
is affected by the wind, but the outfielders reposition themselves for
the balls that stay in play.  And they get more opportunities on
foul popups that carry back into play.  What percentage of a game's
250 pitches are hit to the vicinity of the ivy, so that the wind
makes the difference for a homer?  For that matter, when the wind
is blowing out, it affects the pitched balls too - slowing both fastballs
and off-speed stuff equally, so that if a pitcher continues to use a
a good mix, he should survive the overrated "horror" and the batters
will be just as off-balance.

The Cubs offensive stats are down for reasons far more pervasive than
the wind.  The guys coming up from their farm system just don't have
the slugging power or the ability to execute reliably.  The Cubs enjoyed
some speedier kids briefly in 1989, but that is gone.   All this puts
a lot of pressure on Sandberg, Grace and Dawson to make big innings.
Last spring the postings were talking about how old Sandberg and
Dawson are getting - what happened to that factor?  As soon as one
of these three gets hot, opposing pitchers can pitch around them
and still make them look pitiful.

September is often dominated by pitching, as the '69 Cubs learned
from the Mets.  I hope the Cubs management has not given up on the
players chances of catching the Pirates.  Besides, there is little
to be gained in bringing up Villanueva, Walton, etc. for another
look.  Last Saturday, on CBS, the announcers briefly noted that
the NL East race could be decided by the 4 remaining games between
the Pirates and Expos.  The Cubs have 6 games left with the Pirates,
and 6 with the Expos, of which 6 occur in the last week at Wrigley
Field.  If the Cubs, (and its a BIG IF with their offense), before
this last week, make up 4 of the 8 games by which they trail the
Pirates now, things will get very interesting...  Even so, it looks
like the Braves juggernaut will stop any of them from reaching the
WS.

Gregg
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