From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1992 05:22:12 GMT

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               12 OCTOBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 286, 10/12/92
10.7 FLUX=107.0  90-AVG=119        SSN=060      BKI=2446 6422  BAI=032
BGND-XRAY=B3.7     FLU1=5.4E+05  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=2356 7322  PAI=040
  BOU-DEV=012,063,051,170,166,042,012,014   DEV-AVG=066 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.5   @ 2153UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 0109UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2000UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0025UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0515UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 1835UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 0413UT   BOUTF-MIN=55376NT @ 1729UT  BOUTF-AVG=55409NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+119NT@ 1029UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-046NT@ 1045UT  G7-AVG=+062,+049,+005
GOES6-MAX=N:+119NT@ 1019UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-024NT@ 0754UT  G6-AVG=+072,-010,+027
 FLUXFCST=STD:104,103,100;SESC:100,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,020/015,015,020
    KFCST=1113 2111 1113 2111  27DAY-AP=010,011   27DAY-KP=3333 2221 2342 2332
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  Two small C-class flares were observed
today.  The largest was a class C2.5 event at 21:53 UT.

     Region 7306 (S08W44) decayed substantially over the last 24 hours.  The
small delta configuration was lost.  C-class flares are still possible from
this region over the next 72 hours.  The potential for M-class flares is
diminishing as simplification progresses in the region.

     Region 7303 (S13W84) is approaching the west limb in a weakly active
state.  Occasional plage fluctuations and minor surge activity was observed
in this region over the last 24 hours.  It will depart the west limb over the
next 24 hours.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
this region prior to west limb x-ray occultation.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity is expected to be mostly low.  There is only a slight
chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 7303 or 7306.  Small
C-class flares should dominate.

     The geomagnetic field began the day at mostly quiet levels.  A mild
enhancement was observed near 07:45 UT prior to developing into substantially
stronger minor to severe storming between 09:00 UT and 16:00 UT.  Major to
severe storming was observed over the middle and high latitude regions during
this interval.  Overall activity surpassed the minor storm threshold at 15:00
UT, but quickly subsided to mostly unsettled levels by the end of the day.
The field is expected to continue mostly quiet to unsettled over the next 48
hours (through 14 October inclusive), but may occasionally become active over
the higher latitudes.  An enhancement to generally active levels with minor
storm-level excursions will be possible later on 14 October or on 15 October
in response to a coronal hole.

     HF propagation conditions deteriorated substantially over the middle to
polar latitude paths between 06:00 UT and 15:00 UT.  Signal enhancements were
reported a few hours prior to the strong storm periods over the middle
latitude regions.  Strong fading, absorption, and multipathing degraded
signals traversing these regions. Degradation was strongest during the local
night and early morning hours. Conditions improved fairly rapidly over all
regions after 18:00 UT.  By the end of the UT day, most regions had
near-normal to slightly below-normal propagation.  Conditions are expected to
continue near-normal to slightly below normal through 14 October.
Thereafter, additional degradation could be observed due to anticipated
enhancements in geomagnetic activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7303  S13W84  323  0150 DAO  10  006 BETA
7305  N10W66  305  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7306  S08W44  283  0080 DAO  06  012 BETA
7307  S17W03  242  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7300  N14W70  309                    PLAGE
7308  N09W33  272                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 OCTOBER TO 15 OCTOBER
7291 S05   132


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
60   N23W57 N12W58 N20W70 N26W62  315  ISO   POS   003 10830A
61   N34E31 N07E04 N30W00 N47E14  230  ISO   POS   010 10830A
62   N37E78 N28E56 N29E48 N38E69  190  ISO   POS   005 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S30 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.

**  End of Daily Report  **
Newsgroups: sci.space.news