From: David.Rice@ofa123.fidonet.org
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Yah call a cab, buddy?
Date: 8 Oct 92 15:02:40 GMT
X-Sender: newtout 0.02 Oct  1 1992

"Taxi!" by David Rice
 
One  of the many arguments Creationists make against evolution is the
idea  that the advent of life on Earth is so improbable, it must have
been created. They often state that if one "assumes" the earth is 4.5
billion  years old, that still does not provide enough time for  life
to  arise  "by chance." They very often produce an actual  figure  on
just   how  improbable  "life  by  chance"  is,  generated  by   some
Creationist authority: they often fail to answer HOW said figure  was
calculated.
 
Such  an argument demonstrates one fundamental misunderstanding  that
Creationists  have  about  evolution. Evolutionary  theory  does  not
concern  itself  with  how  life started---  it  only  describes  how
contemporary  life forms evolved from previous life forms,  and  that
they continue to do so. "Biogenesis" is not generally a topic covered
by evolution.
 
Still, when one points out this fact, Creationists see that answer as
avoiding  the  question.  How  does one  answer  the  "Odds  Against"
question?
 
Always,  the burden of proof rests squarely on the shoulders  of  the
individual making the claim. Usually the Creationist will hand you  a
number,  such  as  "Forty billion billion to one against,"  and  then
expect you to prove her or him wrong. While some might consider  such
behavior amusing, others invariably feel frustrated at the fact  that
the  claimants try to shift the burden of DIS-proof on you--- if  you
spend time and effort and prove them wrong, most of the time you will
be ignored or hotly contested, while other times the Creationist just
comes  up  with  yet another unsupported assertion, and  the  process
repeats.
 
Ask  a Creationists, who asserts the "Odds Against" theory, what  the
odds  are for the following: There are 20,000 taxi cabs in the  city.
What  is  the  odds of getting cab number 12,345?  Is  the  odds  any
different for getting cab 4,286? Or cab 11,111? Cab 666?
 
As  evolution scientists know, the question isn't that simple.  There
would  be  a great many additional variables one would have  to  know
before a reliable figure would represent the correct odds.
 
Some of the variables in the taxi cab question:
 
   Are  all  the  cabs working? How many are in  the  shop  being
   repaired?
   
   How many cabs already have fares, and are thus not available?
   
   How  many cabs are being refueled at the moment, and are  thus
   not available?
   
   How  many  cabbies  are on lunch break,  dinner  break,  being
   mugged, and are thus unavailable?
   
   Which  cabs service which areas? If you are downtown and  want
   cab  7, but cab 7 only works uptown, the odds of getting  that
   cab  are zero. Conversely, if you are on 45Th. street and only
   cab 8,542 works that street, the odds of getting cab 8,542 are
   100% (providing you're willing to wait).
 
You  can  probably think of more reasons why the odds of getting  one
particular cab out of 20,000 is different than 20,000:1.
 
Now,  Creationists who make the "Odds Against" claim are  telling  us
that  they  know ALL POSSIBLE EVENTS so well that they can  calculate
the  odds  of life arising by chance! I submit that they cannot  even
calculate the much simpler odds of getting a particular taxi cab, let
alone how probable life is.