From: GCTHORNE@idbsu.idbsu.edu ("Broward "K-Wave" Horne")
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Any "long wave theory "
Date: 13 Nov 92 02:15:32 GMT
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From: floydb@rpi.edu
Subject: Any "long wave theory", "Schumpeter" etc. followers out there?
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 15:45:10 GMT

>Numerous safety nets have been put in place through legislation and finance,
>that have brought about this dampening/raising. However, as with any
>endogenous system, these safety nets are not "system neutral". They too are
>part of the system and to date have not been "tested" (i.e. stress tested).

         Regarding "safety nets" -  I think the cycles probably could
   have been leveled out via safety nets, if the people running the nets
   had had enough sense to not expend surpluses in times of surplus, i.e.
   the Federal Government ( and debt ).  Instead they followed a path
   of constant reinjection and stimulation.  The Pony Express could do
   this, but they always had another horse waiting.

         Some interesting figures here.  They not quite apples and apples
   but I do think they're relevant -

                       Germany 1932                       U.S. 1992

 Total Foreign Debt   26 trillion     Total Federal Debt    4 trillion

 Federal Income       7.8 trillion    Federal Income        1.2 trillion

 Debt/Income Ratio      3.3 : 1                             3.3 : 1


    Now, I realize the "foreign debt" isn't equivalent to the Federal Debt,
    but in 1932, governments strove hard to balance budgets, and the types
    of deficits of today were rare.  So, we can probably figure that the
    rest of Germany's Federal debt was negligable.  And, for the U.S.,
    while this doesn't show only the foreign portion of the debt, remember
    that there is roughly 8 trillion in private and corporate debts.

         And we all know how Germany's debt got paid off.

>I am interested in hearing what people think might happen in the next 10 to
>fifteen years (thru 2005) with respect to any factors you feel are significant

         Considering capital as an almost organic lifeform, consuming
   resources and growing, I can see a day ( soon ) when the various
   MONUMENTAL collections of capital begin colliding.  I think we're seeing
   the beginnings of this in the imminent " trade wars ".  Mexico just
   stuck a tariff on U.S. beef.  We're going to stick a tariff on wines.

         I mean, just think about this.  Mexico already MAKES beef.  We
   already make wine.  Free trade is only beneficial when new markets
   are being opened, not when your existing markets are being saturated.

         Conclusion - rapidly deteriorating economies lead to escalating
   racism, conflict, and ultimately a big, big, BOOM!  I think a war
   is likely.  But -

         i)  I've ruled out a U.S. civil war.  The conditions aren't right.
         ii) I've ruled out Clinton as a potential Hitler or Mussolini.  It
             just doesn't fit this time.

         I'd take a stab at Japan re-emerging on a imperialist conquest, as
   in the late 20s ( early 30s ? ).  They have the capital, manufacturing
   base, a tend towards racism ready, a previous history, a need for raw
   material that will get mighty bad as manufactured goods loose their
   value.

         Plus they'll be really pissed when we default on our bonds. :)

         Or, possible a general breakdown, guerilla warfare type environment
   in the U.S.  We're halfway there already, carjackings, etc.

         A re-united Russia follows a fascist path?
Newsgroups: misc.invest