From: djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson)
Subject: Re: RP/PA for AL and NL (More bogus RP stats)
Organization: University of Waterloo
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 1992 18:58:17 GMT

In article <3451@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:
>In article <BrqtJn.w0@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson) writes:
>
>>In article <3388@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:
>
>>>In article <Brp3LH.LEo@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson) writes:
>
>>>>If you are looking for a good denominator how about total team runs.  This
>>>>will show the players value to the team.  
>
>>>!?  What makes you say that?
>
>[massive deletion]
>
>>>But let's get back to the original premise.  Why do you think that "% of team
>>>runs driven in" tells you anything useful about a player?  Two identical 
>>>players with identical stats in identical situations could still look very
>>>different using this measure--all it takes is for one of them to have the
>>>bottom of the Astros order in his lineup, and the other the bottom of the
>>>Tigers' order.  How is this an individual measure?  When the noise is larger
>>>than the signal, it's time to look elsewhere for measures.
>
>>This stat shows the players value to the team.  
>
>I heard you the first time.  I just don't see how you reached this odd
>conclusion.  Or do you have some weird definition of "value" that you
>aren't sharing with me?

What you don't think that a player who has more RBI and Runs than anyone
else on the team isn't valuable.  A guy with a lot of RBI and Runs scored
for their team as compared to other players shows that that player has been 
more productive in the opportunities he has got than other players on his
team.

>>If Joe Carter played for
>>California he will not likely get as much of an opportunity to drive in
>>runs and will be driven in less as well 
>
>True.
>
>>but dividing it by the teams total
>>runs this factors in the whole teams inability to drive in runs.  
>
>No, what it does is tell you approximately where Joe Carter ranks among
>Angels players in terms of being awarded RBIs.  It *prevents* you from
>making any comparison with players on other teams, since the context of
>playing on the Angels has nothing in common with, say, the context of
>playing for the Blue Jays.

But this stat will show the ability of Carter to drive in runs when he
gets a chance to.  California scores less runs because they get less
opportunities to do so thus Carter as an individual player will have less
opportunities as well and thus his RBI and Run total will go down.  This
value I find with this stat as compared to others is that it doesn't
depend as much on the players who hit in front and behind him as some stats
do.

>What fraction of the '27 Yankees' runs did Babe Ruth drive in?  Compare that
>with Nate Colbert on the Padres of the early '70s.  Was Nate Colbert more
>valuable than Babe Ruth?

>The problem with this "more valuable to his team" thing is that you give a
>player credit for having rotten teammates, which is silly.  Colbert may or may

A good player should get some Credit and not be brought down just because
he has poor teammates.  We are trying to evaluate a player fairly not
make him look bad because he has bad teammates.
 
>not have contributed more toward winning than other Padres batters, but there's
>no way that the Pads wouldn't have done much better with Babe Ruth instead.
>Who cares what % of a team's runs come from player X?  
>
>>Lets put
>>Carter on a lousy offensive team and he gets 90 RBI hits .280 30 HR and 
>>scores 50 runs.  Does this make him a worse player than if he had 105 RBI
>>and 65 runs scored with 30 HR and .280 average on a good hitting team.  Lets
>>say the first team scored 600 runs and the second team scored 750.
>>
>>     Team #1 - RC = 110
>>               Players Value =  110/600 = 0.183
>>     Team #2 - RC = 140
>>               Players Value =  140/750 = 0.186
>
>I think you mean "RP", although that name is pretty objectionable, too.
>
>The point is not that it makes him a worse player; the point is that it
>makes him *the same* player, whichever team you put him on.  Regardless of
>the RBI and R totals that his team makes out of him.

But isn't that what we want when comparing players.  How would he do on an
average team rather than a good team or a poor team.  The problem with
RBI and RUNS is that it depends too much on what the players are hitting 
around him are doing.  In my example i made Carter the *same* player on
different teams and giving Carter the same rating on whatever team he
plays on is the best thing about this stat.  Carter should be just as
good of a player on California as Toronto it is just that he will be less
productive because he gets less opportunities.

>
>(Aside: rather than thinking of R's and RBI's as rates at which a particular
> player produces runs, it's far more enlightening to think of them as rates
> at which the *team* converts this player's abilities into team runs...  As
> such, adjusted for player OBP/SLG/SB/CS, they become a nice team measure of
> offensive efficiency.)
>
>(Aotherside: why am I arguing with someone who thinks you can tell how good
> a player is from his batting average, HR totals, runs scored, and RBIs?)

I never said this and so you shouldn't use this as any kind of arguements.
If I thought that Avg, HR, Runs, and RBI were adequite why would I even
think about creating a new stat let alone post it.

>
>>This shows that the players are closer to being equal which is what it should
>>be since one is on a bad team and one is on a good team.
>
>So?  Divide them both by walks allowed by the pitching staff and that will
>be "closer to being equal", too.  You have to pick a normalization factor 
>that makes sense for what you're trying to measure.  Team runs do not count
>the degree of RBI/R opportunity that Carter gets, so dividing by them doesn't
>give you his ability as an RBI/R man, much less his value toward team scoring.
>
>
>
>-- 
>       David Tate        |"Out of the dugout endlessly swinging,
> dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu | Out of the manager's throat, the sound fundamentals,
> Prof. of Story Problems | Out of the six-month season..."            
> Member ORSA, TIMS, SABR | 	Walt "Lefty" Whitman

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