From: pbenjami@sjuphil.uucp (Paul Benjamin)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Sierra and Clemente
Date: 7 Apr 92 16:25:05 GMT
Article-I.D.: sjuphil.1992Apr7.162505.11395
Organization: Saint Joseph's University

In article <204487@unix.cis.pitt.edu> dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:
>Last night's edition of Baseball Tonight on ESPN featured a brief look at
>Ruben Sierra's career, prospects, and money.  As with every other story on
>Sierra, they referred to him as someone who "could be the next Clemente".

>What were Clemente's skills?  Hitting for high average, playing defense, and
>hitting more triples than any other player since WW2.  Clemente, in his prime,
>routinely hit .330-.350, in a time when pitchers were dominant.  His 160-some
>triples are an astonishing feat for his era.

He had the top batting average for the 1960's. So, offensively he was more
like Boggs and Gwynn and Carew than Sierra. The kicker is that he was
a combination of that type of offense and phenomenal defense, which none
of the above had. 4 batting titles and 12 Gold Gloves.

>The other thing that one might mean by that phrase, though, is "the next 
>Puerto Rican player to be as good as Clemente."  Again, we'll ignore defense,
>since Sierra can't compete there.  I claim that it's silly to say that Sierra
>"could be the next Clemente", in this sense, because Sierra is ALREADY AS GOOD
>AS CLEMENTE EVER WAS, almost, at an age when Clemente had never yet shown star
>ability.

>What do I mean by that?  Simply this: Sierra has already had three offensive
>seasons better than Clemente's second-best year.  Sierra is 26 this year; 
>Clemente had his 'breakthrough' year at age 26, and all his best seasons came
>later.  There is no reason to believe that Sierra, this year, will have an
>offensive season better than any Clemente ever had.  Sierra's Brock2 projection
>shows him beating Clemente's career totals in everything except triples and
>batting average.  Sierra's established level of ability at 26 is as good as
>Clemente's established level of ability at 28.  Sierra is just plain a better
>offensive player.

Well, let's take park effects into account here. Clemente played
most of his career in Forbes Field, with its 457 center field distance,
and a left-center power alley of 420-430. Put Mike Schmidt in there,
and there's no way he hits 500 HRs. Just take a look at Stargell's
HR/BA/RBI numbers in Forbes and 3R: Stargell never hit more than
31 HRs in Forbes, but hit 48 HRs his first full year in 3R (followed
by 33HR in the strike season, and then 44HR in 1973). And Forbes was
harder on RH hitters. Only Kiner did well there, by pulling the ball
right down the LF line. Clemente early in his career was intentionally
copying Kiner's approach, and hit 20+ HR twice, but then Stargell was
brought up from the minors, and Clemente intentionally changed his
hitting approach to emphasize average over power to get on base in
front of Stargell (I think this a mistake, in restrospect). Can you
imagine a guy who just won the MVP changing his hitting approach in
this way? Unbelievable.

I saw a lot of those triples, as I was at plenty of games, and in
a smaller park, many of them would have been HRs. Nobody who saw
Clemente doubted his power. Certainly he had at least as much as
Yazstremski (sp?) who got 400HRs. If Clemente had played in one of
those wonderful HR parks, he would have had *much* higher totals,
so just comparing them straight with Sierra (or Schmidt, for that
matter) isn't a real good idea. I remember reading somewhere (but
a long time ago) that Clemente had 28 career HR in Wrigley. Now,
he played about 5% of his games there (almost a whole season's
worth) so we can see what such a park might have meant to a line
drive hitter like Roberto. On the other hand, Stargell hit "only"
32 HR in Wrigley, because his hits went farther, so bringing the
fences in would have helped him less. (As an aside, thinking of the
recent post about how 3R seems to be hard on lefty hitters makes me
wonder if this was true then, and if so, what Stargell might have
done in Atlanta or Wrigley?)

So let's take Clemente's numbers with a large dose of salt. Certainly,
park effects are important, especially when playing in one of the
largest parks ever. Also adjust for the pitching of the 1960s, which
was the lowest scoring decade in recent baseball history.

>(BTW, this is tantamount to heresy here in Pittsburgh.  I'd be tarred and
> feathered and "rode outta town onna rail" if I were to say things like this
> aloud at Three Rivers...)

Hmmm. I wonder if we can make a net connection to the scoreboard at 3R?

>Comments?  Objections?

If Clemente were playing today, and in Wrigley/Fenway/Atlanta/etc.
I think we'd be looking at 35HR, .350+BA, .400+ OBA, .500 slug, with a
Gold Glove every year. In other words, Boggs with the power of
Bonds or Sierra, and better defense than anyone else.

Oh, and a contract of about $8-9 million.

Paul Benjamin