From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 July
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 04:48:02 GMT

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                  DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 JULY, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 JULY
--------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 203, 07/21/92
10.7 FLUX=108    90-AVG=129        SSN=084      BKI=0123 3432  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=2.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1222 3432  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=004,009,018,020,034,043,038,012   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 2345UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 2019UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.9
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 0750UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1540UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1555UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 2150UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55247NT @ 1220UT   BOUTF-MIN=55201NT @ 1634UT  BOUTF-AVG=55233NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1706UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-008NT@ 1451UT  G7-AVG=+081,+049,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 0015UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-017NT@ 1625UT  G6-AVG=+091,+010,+040
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,103,103;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/020,015,015
    KFCST=3344 4333 3334 3333  27DAY-AP=022,016   27DAY-KP=4553 4333 3442 3333
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  The largest flare of the day was a fairly
long duration C1.6 event at 23:45 UT.  Most of the activity was confined to
B-class levels.  The background x-ray flux dropped to near anticipated levels
over the last 24 hours.

     Region 7229 (N23W54) decayed during the day, but was responsible for
several small B-class subflares, the largest of which was a B8/SF event at
19:13 UT.

     Numerous other regions also contributed small optical subflares.
However, most of these events were not accompanied by any substantial x-ray
bursts.

     No new regions were numbered today.  Region 7236 (N18E10) experienced
the greatest level of growth (from 10 millionths yesterday to 40 millionths
today).

     Of the regions visible, Region 7229 continues to possess the greatest
potential for minor C-class flare activity.  Although a slight chance exists
the spot group may produce a weak M-class flare, most of the activity is
expected to remain confined to the B and C-class levels.  Solar activity is
therefore expected to continue low.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled until around 12:00 UT when
both ground-based and geosynchronous magnetometers showed an increase in
field instability.  Activity remained mildly unsettled to occasionally active
thereafter.  A large and well placed coronal hole is responsible for this
enhanced level of activity.  Activity is expected to remain unsettled to
active with possible minor storm periods over the higher latitude regions on
22 and possibly 23 July before beginning to subside.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  Low and
most middle latitude signal paths should continue near-normal over the next
72 hours with stronger levels of fading during the local night sectors.
High and polar latitude signal paths should see stronger signal degradation
due to enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  These regions
are expected to observe mostly fair to poor propagation over the next 72
hours before some stabilization occurs.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7229  N23W54  309  0080 DAO  09  009 BETA
7232  N17W07  262  0010 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7234  S17W50  305  0040 CRO  05  008 BETA
7235  S04W42  297  0020 BXO  04  007 BETA
7236  N18E10  245  0040 DRO  05  008 BETA
7225  S11W82  337                    PLAGE
7227  N16W60  315                    PLAGE
7228  S02W74  329                    PLAGE
7230  S14W33  288                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 JULY TO 24 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 JULY
---------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 JULY
-------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA  OBSN
44   N20W12 N05W29 N14W54 N33W34  293  ISO   POS   028 10830A
45   N02E46 S10E44 N07E38 N09E41  218  ISO   NEG   004 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **