From: thietaniemi@cc.helsinki.fi
Newsgroups: talk.politics.soviet
Subject: Re: More Russian threats against ESTONIA
Date: 15 Oct 92 13:31:22 GMT
Organization: University of Helsinki

In article <1992Oct15.085740.22631@jyu.fi>, ryyti@jyu.fi (Jarmo Ryyti) writes:
> thietaniemi@cc.helsinki.fi wrote:
> : 
> : I found this in my email and post it forward:
> : (a quotation follows:)
> : 
> : RUSSIA THREATENS SANCTIONS AGAINST ESTONIA
> : 
> : 
> :     LONDON, Oct 13, Reuter - Russian vice-president Alexander Rutskoi
> : threatened on Tuesday to impose harsh economic sanctions against
> : Estonia unless it allowed Russians settled there to stay on as
> : citizens.
> : 
> :     Rutskoi told the British Broadcasting Corporation in a television
> : interview that if Moscow imposed sanctions on the small Baltic state
> : they would have a crippling effect.
> : 
> :     "Within one week the economy and industry of Estonia would grind
> :      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> : to a halt," he told the BBC's "Assignment" current affairs programme.
> : ^^^^^^^^^
> 
> Just as a comment, those sanctions would hit mostly russians since
> the estonian industry was constructed by the soviets so that the raw-materials
> were brought to the country from Russia etc. as well as the workers.
> So those who were out of work first were the russians themselves.

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Soviet economy has already
hit these Russian workers in Estonia hard, and unemployment is highest
in their ranks. Many previous soviet enterprises run by Russians in Estonia
can't cope with the changing economic and institutional environment (especially
the military industry that can't be conversed). But cutting the mutual energy 
trade between (North-East) Estonia and Russia would be fatal indeed and cause 
suffering all around the Gulf of Finland, except, in Finland, which would
remain undamaged by this trade war.

Cutting the energy deliveries when the nordic winter seems to be starting
is cruel and senseless policy and will cause suffering in many Estonian
and Russian homes. This is the most effective "sanction" Rutskoi has in
his disposal.

> By the way during this year the trade between Finland and Estonia
> has increased tremendously.
> 
> For Finland Estonia is today more important trade partner( in Finnish
> marks) than many of the bigger countries.
>
> I think Finland will be in the future number one trading partner for
> Estonia.

You are more than right: according the first reliable statistics from
the Estonian customs office Finland became the greatest trading partner
for Estonia during last month! But these customs statistics do not include
electricity and fuels. Russian trade is still vital to Estonia.
 
> Rutskoi just helps that development. 

This is too optimistic, according to my humble opinion.

> If Rutskoi is stupid enough to harm the interest of Russia he of course
> can do it. It just seems to me that in Moscow there are a lot of stupid
> politicians. Can Moscow not find any desent people for the leadership
> or were they all killed during past times. It seems to me that Russians
> have as leaders a bunch stupid men, when one goes an other at least as 
> stupid comes instead. So it goes year after year.

I would not formulate this issue in the same manner as you, but I can't
help wondering: why has Yeltsin changed his politics against Estonia
so abruptly? Why is he making concessions to the reactionary groupings
in the Russian parliament?

Is Yeltsin going down the Gorbachev way?

Yegor Gaidar surely understands the mutual economic intrests of democratic
Estonia and democratic Russia: shouldn't he take the floor now?
"Predostavite Gaidaru slovo!"

> This prosentage of 40 % is propaganda. The russians are not 40 %
> of the population in Estonia! Non-estonians are and it is an other
> thing. 

You are right: ethnic Russians form 30% of the Estonian population. But if we
count in Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Central Asiatics and even Ingrian
Finns, which communicate in Estonia with the help of Russian language, one
could safely conclude that the Russian speakers in Estonia amount little
less than 40% of the population of Estonia. That's close enough. There are
more fatal misunderstandings around,

claims
the observer
Tapani Hietaniemi, Universitas Helsingiensis
                   urbs fennorum