From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 August
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sat, 15 Aug 1992 19:54:36 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               14 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 227, 08/14/92
10.7 FLUX=128.6  90-AVG=125        SSN=134      BKI=2223 3431  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B3.7     FLU1=4.5E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3223 4422  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=019,018,019,024,029,048,021,008   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.5   @ 0005UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 1823UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2305UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1745UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1920UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2320UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55265NT @ 0020UT   BOUTF-MIN=55214NT @ 1629UT  BOUTF-AVG=55248NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+095NT@ 1716UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0745UT  G7-AVG=+071,+040,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+095NT@ 1742UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-005NT@ 0835UT  G6-AVG=+082,+008,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,120,115;SESC:125,120,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,010,015
    KFCST=3332 2222 3332 2222  27DAY-AP=005,004   27DAY-KP=1211 1221 1101 1221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity remained low.  The largest flare of the day was a class
C3.5/SF flare at 00:05 UT from Region 7248 (S12W84).  The only other C-class
flare observed today was an optically uncorrelated class C2.5 x-ray event at
19:25 UT.  Aside from these events, full-disk x-ray activity was fairly
stable.

     Region 7260 (N18E41) remained moderately large and has not changed
significantly in structure over the last 24 hours.  The trailer spots
continue to be small and are associated with fairly weak fields.  The region
is hottest near the U-shaped neutral line to the east and northeast of the
large leader spot, but has been quiet and stable throughout the day.  This
trend is likely to continue given that there are no obvious signs of new
emerging flux or other perturbing factors.  Minor M-class flare activity
remains a slight possibility from this group.

     Region 7261 (S22W11) grew rapidly, tripling in size since yesterday.  In
the process, this developing region spawned several weak subflares, but no
substantial C-class events.  If growth persists, this group could become
M-class capable.

     The National Solar Observatory observed fairly strong Fe X emissions on
the east limb today centered near N10.  Moderately strong Fe X emissions were
also seen on the west limb near the solar equator.  Also of interest is the
observation of a fairly large Fe XIV coronal hole on the east limb.  The
hole appears to be associated with a northern polar coronal extension and has
an equatorward boundary near N30.  This feature has been observed on 13 and
14 August, but was absent on 10 August.  Plots of these features can be
obtained on a daily basis through anonymous FTP from: xi.uleth.ca (IP number
142.66.3.29) in the directory "pub/solar/Corona" as GIF image files.

     No new regions were numbered.

     Solar activity is expected to remain mostly low, with a slight chance
for an isolated minor M-class flare from either Region 7260 or 7261.  Most of
the activity is expected to remain confined to low C-class levels.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled over the last 24
hours.  A few high-latitude regions reported active to storm-level
perturbations between 09:00 UT and 18:00 UT.  The field is expected to be
mostly quiet to mildly unsettled on 15 and 16 August.  By 17 August, there is
a chance an isolated positive polarity coronal hole presently centered near
N15E10 may enhance levels of geomagnetic activity to active levels.  Both
coronal 10830A imagery and soft-xray imagery confirm the existence of this
hole.  Recurrence suggests high latitudes may be at risk for minor storm
activity if this disturbance materializes.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  No
significant changes are expected over the next 48 hours.  On or near 17
August, high and polar latitude signal paths could become slightly degraded
due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Most other
regions should remain near-normal, with the exception of increased fading
during the local night and morning sectors over the middle latitude paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7248  S12W86  024  0120 DKO  08  015 BETA
7256  S15W15  313  0040 CSO  04  004 BETA
7260  N17E41  257  0830 EKI  15  028 BETA
7261  S22W11  309  0060 DAO  06  016 BETA
7262  N17W16  314  0010 BXO  04  007 BETA
7263  N16W05  303  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7254  N05W78  016                    PLAGE
7255  S10W76  014                    PLAGE
7259  S11W38  336                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 AUGUST TO 17 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7247 N07   168


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1735 1736 1737                          160


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/ 0150     0157     0228       S14W75   LDE    B8.0   38


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   N23W01 N09W10 N13W11 N23W01  332  ISO   POS   000 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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