From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1992 09:29:54 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: Equipment problems prevented full data from being collected.
      Inaccuracies exist with the x-ray, neutron, PCA, total field, and
      geosynchronous magnetometer data.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 354, 12/19/92
10.7 FLUX=147.0  90-AVG=137        SSN=162      BKI=1021 2233  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B5.2     FLU1=3.8E+05  FLU10=9.9E+03  PKI=1011 2233  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=12849,18208,19777,16717,13395,008,25187,025   DEV-AVG=-3113 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.8   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.8   @ 0001UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.8
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0005UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0005UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0005UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0005UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55410NT @ 0001UT   BOUTF-MIN=55410NT @ 0001UT  BOUTF-AVG=55410NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+088NT@ 0001UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+008NT@ 0001UT  G7-AVG=+088,+030,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+109NT@ 0001UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-008NT@ 0001UT  G6-AVG=+109,-008,+013
 FLUXFCST=STD:155,160,165;SESC:155,160,165 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=3333 3333 2233 2223  27DAY-AP=014,028   27DAY-KP=1124 4333 5554 3433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7371 (S09W63)
       remained stable. Region 7374 (S08E60) doubled in size. New
       Regions 7375 (N12W35), a rapidly developed DSO group, and
       7376 (N18E71), the return of Region 7352, were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7371, 7374 and 7375 have the best C-class activity
       potential and a small chance of producing an isolated M-class
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 20 dec-22 dec

                             Class M    15/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 dec-22 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/15
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/15
                        Minor Storm           20/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next 24 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7363  S09W76  138  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7364  N08W78  140  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7366  S10W47  109  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7368  S33W27  089  0040 CRO  10  010 BETA
7370  S08E14  048  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7371  S09W63  125  0140 EAO  11  010 BETA
7372  S12E44  018  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7373  N06W20  082  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7374  S08E61  001  0310 DAO  09  014 BETA
7375  N14W41  103  0050 DAO  06  009 BETA
7376  N18E71  351  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7369  S07E05  057                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 DECEMBER TO 22 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7356 S13   318
7361 S16   308


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
19/A0415             B2348       S06W36   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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