From: djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson)
Subject: Re: MLB Standings and Scores for Mon, Jul 27th, 1992
Organization: University of Waterloo
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 16:00:01 GMT

In article <1992Jul28.162536.6999@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>In article <Bs3szC.3Ks@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.uwaterloo.ca (David Johnson) writes:

>>Up here we are not worried about Baltimore.  We think that they will play what
>>they should play over the rest of the season.  About .500.
>
>Hm.  I thought that they were doing a pretty good job of outscoring
>their opponents (despite a stupid lineup).  No?  Do you honestly
>expect that to change?
>
>Their offense is strong, and will be stronger when Hoiles returns and
>Cal starts hitting.  Their pitching (which has been moderately
>dreadful) has been overhauled.  Mussina is great, McDonald is better
>than he looks right now, and Rhodes...  Ah!  He may be the Guzman of
>1992.  Young pitchers don't always pan out, but if you have to bet on
>one, bet on him!  He has always had good K and H/IP numbers, and has
>(hopefully) brought his BB numbers down to an acceptable level.  Their
>bullpen is one of the best in the majors, of course.

There pitching is kinda messed up.  It has been overhauled but has it got
better.  You are depending on *Young* pitchers to come through in a pennant
drive.  I am not saying that they won't, but I don't think that they can
perform good enough to win the pennant this year.

>The pitching may not be as good as the Blue Jays, but the offense is
>IMHO better.  Don't count the O's out yet.

Well, maybe but up to recently Olerud has been very mediocre and if we can
get Gruber hitting like he can I will take the Blue Jays offense over the
Orioles.

>>Also if the Jays do what many expected at the beggining
>>of the season (100 wins) no team in the east has a chance.
>
>I'd be willing to bet that they don't!  Besides, if the Dodgers and
>Mets did what "many expected", the NL divisions would be clinched by
>now.

I bet they won't either.  Not because they don't have the talent and abilities
to, but because they are under achieving like most years.  

>>The Jays are much better than a .592 team.
>
>Hah!  Their offense is only about average, and they need every bit of
>it to cover the runs Morris gives up.  Guzman is great, while Key and
>Wells are quality pitchers.  But the Jays have had serious problems
>finding #4 and #5 starters.

Their offense will be better when and if Gruber can hit close to what he can.
As for the number 4 and 5 starters, if we could get them fixed we will have
no problem winning the division.  The Jays, unlike many teams, have a very
deep pitching staff and a good Bullpen.  I have to worry a little bit about
the number 4 and 5 starters but I think that we can find at least one and
probably 2 out of Steib, Hentgen, Wells and Stottlemyre.  I think it will
probably be Stottlemyre and Wells.  Stottlemyre is coming off of an injury
and I think that he will be much better the rest of the way.

>Morris is not going to win 20 games this year.  People say that
>Morris' ERA is deceptive.  I already addressed that question in a
>start-by-start analysis of this season.  He has gotten exceptional run
>support *and* has gotten very lucky.  I also analyzed his career
>through 1991, comparing his ERA, winning percentage, and the average
>offense of the teams he played for.  I found that they were
>essentially perfectly matched.  Over his career, Morris has not had
>more wins than you would expect from his ERA and the offenses behind
>him.  Therefore I expect that in the second half of *this* year, he
>will be a sub-.500 pitcher.

You can have your own opinion but I think that the Jays offense will improve
and Morris will pitch a little better and he will win 18-20 games.

>As for Milwaukee?  They have a quality team.  But with so many old
>players, can they hang together down the stretch?  And Eldred simply
>doesn't compare to Rhodes.  I'm not sure how the Brewers have won as
>much as they have.  And I certainly don't see how they are going to
>manage to do any better than they already are.

I will always take experienced players over rookies.  I know Molitor and Yount
will continue to hit well, but do we know that about Hoiles?  The way Milwaukee
is winning so many games is because they are aggressive on the bases and have
some quality veterens.

I am not saying that Baltimore will sit down and watch Toronto and Milwaukee
go off in the distance but I don't feel they have the pitching to win this 
year.  I would watch out for Baltimore to contend over the next few years,
when they get more experience, but for now they have too many question marks.

>
>Cheers,
>-Valentine
>-- 
>If Plantier goes, I go!				tedward@cs.cornell.edu

--David Johnson