From: lockhart@mothra.nts.uci.edu (Jack C. Lockhart)
Subject: EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
Summary: Keep an open mind
Newsgroups: ca.earthquakes,sci.geo.geology,rec.radio.amateur.misc
Organization: University of California, Irvine
Keywords: Piezo-electrical, ELF, VLF, Pre-cursors, magnetic, RF
Date: 26 Jul 92 06:15:59 GMT
Followup-To: ca.earthquakes,sci.geo.geology


I picked up this article titled: [BROADCAST BAND APPARENT FREQUENCY
DEVIATIONS AND EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING - A 15 MONTH REPORT] and could-
n't put it down.  A quick call to the author and publisher secured
permission to post this paper to Usenet.  [*] Graphs and pictures
have been deleted.  Visit your local library of write the author if
you want to view the graphs, charts and pictures.


BROADCAST BAND APPARENT FREQUENCY DEVIATIONS AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST-
ING - A 15 MONTH REPORT

          WINTER 1990\COMMUNICATIONS ELECTRONICS JOURNAL 191

                ANARC NEWSLETTER, August\September 1989

                          by Raymond F. Cole
         1918 N. Kings Highway, Cap Girardeau, MO, 63701, USA
                            (314) 335-1496

[Copyright 1988 by Michael G. Knitter, National Radio Club, Inc.  The
following article was originally published in the 11 April 1988 issue
of DX News.  It was voted "Article of the Year" by the ANARC Club
Representatives.]

     The possibly devastating damage by earthquakes has grown greatly
due to increased populated density and city growth and complexity. 
For several decades scientists have sought a reliable means of fore-
casting quakes, and in a few successful cases in China in recent
years, when whole cities were ordered evacuated, thousands of lives
have been saved when it was possible to give an advance warning.
     No way has yet been found which meets all the criteria of a
successful forecast, i.e., reliability, timing and severity.  Now an
entirely new possible means has been accidentally discovered and
carefully followed up for fifteen months.  Many questions remain to be
answered, but many more have been satisfactorily answered.
     During this investigation there has been considerable normal
skepticism by some of "the establishment" in seismological and radio
fields, but in a few cases, an open mindedness and cooperation that
included very valuable suggestions.  A university professor, well
known for his own scientific investigations in another field, played
"the devil's advocate" with questions and criticisms concerning
methods.  Much is owed to this "devil's advocate."
     Skepticism of friends and acquaintances vanished and became
interested support when two California quakes were successfully pre-
dicted within a twenty four hour time period, a week in advance. 
However, a subsequent third similar prediction passed with no result--
possibly because the San Andreas Fault was locked too tightly for the
amount of force applied.
     The phenomena that was accidentally discovered in December, 1986,
was that within the 550 to 1600 kilohertz broadcast band there were
apparent shifts of frequencies, occasionally as much as 15 kHz on a
superhet radio, even though the transmitters are allowed a tolerance
of only .05 khz by the FCC and even though most modern transmitters
automatically shut down with a deviation of .5 khz.
     The very first indication of this phenomena appeared when trying
to accurately log distant stations with a new crystal set called the
Tuggle Circuit.  For a crystal set it has remarkable sensitivity and
selectivity and quickly logged stations spread over half the country,
plus Canada, Mexico and the Netherlands Antilles.
     However, a non-powered crystal set does not have stabilizing
oscillator, mixer and intermediate frequency circuits, and the appar-
ent frequency deviations were quite "wild"--up to 40 khz.  A frustrat-
ing situation.
     At this point a portable superhet with a RF stage, a Radio Shack
TRF 12-656, became the chief means of monitoring the phenomena.  It
had a section of a centimeter ruler already installed in the dial as a
means for accurate logging, the circuit had been peaked, and the
logging scale was calibrated with a crystal oscillator.  Later a nine
point vernier scale was added to the dial pointer and a multivibrator
circuit added to the oscillator for a recheck of calibrations.
     Periodically, various theories and results of this investigation
were published in the DX News by the National Radio Club, which
prompted some helpful suggestions and contributions by a few of the
many club members.
     Beginning in December, 1986, both air and ground moisture and
precipitation were ruled out as possible causes.  Variations in the
radio itself were ruled out through use of a second radio, a GE
portable, which showed identical results as far as could be determined
with its similar, but not quite as easily readable, logging scale. 
Outdoor and radio shack temperatures were also ruled out, and so was
the use or non-use of an external antenna, and either AC or battery
operation.
     Right after Christmas the author "stuck his neck out" to eight
persons, one a radio amateur, another a lifelong radio repairman and
amateur, and the others close acquaintances.  The theory that I
advanced was that earthquake fault stress had to be the cause of the
phenomena.  Naturally it met with great skepticism--and perhaps some
doubts about my sanity.  On December 29th all that changed due to a
3.5 tremor centered 60 to 70 miles south of the New Madrid Fault.
     No deviations could be found remaining on December 30th.  Howev-
er, on December 31st much lessor ones began to appear again.  So
investigation of this phenomena began in earnest, although in a rather
fumbling "gallop off in all directions at once" sort of way--since
nothing whatever was known on anything like this.
     One promising avenue of investigation was suggested by a member
of the National Radio Club, electrical ground currents.  So a 365 foot
wire and ground rod was installed and careful measurements periodi-
cally taken.  The results were negative, but helped later in disprov-
ing a theory developed at MIT which was at first considered in the
probable cause.
     Even moon and tide cycles were studied.  A very sophisticated
magnetometer was borrowed, installed and studied for over a month. 
Eventually an attempt was made to use the radio receiver's tuning knob
shaft to drive a one-meter-long dial's pointer to try to get accurate
tenth of a kilohertz readings.  The latter failed due to dial cable
stretch, even when a guitar string was used.
     A magnetic compass about 40 inches long was made with a piece of
three-eights inch iron pipe and a very strong speaker magnet.  It was
suspended from the ceiling and completely closely shielded from
drafts.  Contacts and contact strips recorded both vertical and
horizontal deviations on a double track millivolt recorder.  It did
record as high as a 4 degree horizontal deviation and a 1.5 degree
vertical deviation while in use.  These at times seemed to correlate
with frequency deviations.  However, after about three months it was
discarded as being more confusing than useful, even though extremely
interesting.
     Monitoring and recording of apparent frequency deviations on a
continual, several times a day, basis yielded some very interesting
results.  Foremost was the fact that different frequencies were being
affected in different ways (i.e., some drifting higher and some
drifting lower in frequency--and some doing some of both) and in
differing amounts.
     This was overly illustrated in a one-time-only occurrence with
the "overacting" crystal set when two stations 20 kHz apart were
tunable, and while being tuned, the one to the left on the dial
"flipped" across to the right on the one that had been on the right-
which stayed where it had been!  Most deviations certainly do not
occur so quickly, but since no means has yet been found for constant
monitoring and recording, the median time of change is not known. 
Many have been found to occur within one hour, and several times
deviations have occurred which actually trying to tune a signal.
     A second result is that there seems to be no one ideal average
frequency for monitoring, although some frequencies are far less
affected than others.  It was hoped that a single one could be found
that would be typical of all, and that all effort could then be
concentrated there.  Averages of a dozen frequencies were figured and
it was found that three of four would normally run closest to that
average, but there were striking exceptions which obviously cannot be
ignored.
     A third result is that it was found that frequencies below 550
khz do not show observable deviations.  It was suggested by a radio
engineer who installs broadcast transmitters that deviations should
seem greater at the lower frequencies.  It is probable that the much
lower power used (usually 20 to 100 watts) on those frequencies
account for this.
     Four tremors of 3.0 to 3.5 southward 60 to 90 miles on the New
Madrid Fault, and one about 150 miles eastward on the Walbash Fault,
beginning on December 29th through August, 1987 provided considerable
opportunity to observe a cause and effect relationship between fre-
quency deviations and quakes.  And many, many times deviations would
gradually increase and then subside with no apparent effects.  Howev-
er, any tremor below 3.0 is neither noticed nor newsworthy, so some
lessor ones may possibly have occurred.  But more on this up and then
down effect later in this report.
     In one instance when both frequency and magnetic compass devia-
tions were being recorded, a severe quake in Chile resulted in an
immediate drop here in both deviations.  It seemed that the shock wave
released local stress.  Timing on this was checked locally at the
seismograph at Southeastern Missouri University.  This seismograph is
not usually readily accessible to correlate data due to my own working
hours and to necessary University security concerns.  Lengthy and
retailed reports on every tremor registered by all seismographs are
available from the government--I have one on hand--but are six months
to a year behind, and absolutely useless for current correlation.
     An interesting experiment was to take the GE portable radio
thirty miles and check deviations for a comparison with deviations at
the usual monitoring point.  (The Radio Shack TRF 12-656 is glued in
place as a precaution, although movement or rotation of it has not
been found to cause deviations).  Results were a surprise--approxi-
mately the same.  However, two months later a map of small local
faults was found [*] and it was discovered that the largest local one
runs out west an undetermined distance!  And probably approximately
under the highway taken out west!
     Another interesting experiment was to hold a very strong magnet
close to the receiver at various points around it to see if deviations
could be caused.  At some locations signals were virtually nulled out
completely, but no deviations of any kind or size could be caused
     Loggings taken on the GE portable and the Radio Shack TRF 12-656
at the same time, while together and on the phone and four miles
apart, were often in agreement and often in disagreement, but most of
the time both showed deviations on the same frequencies--although
sometimes on one frequency one would show a deviation and the other
would not.  However, with both radios at the same location both would
show almost identical deviations.
     Early in May, 1987, in a purely chance meeting with the owner-
manager of one of the local stations that had shown deviations prior
to the December tremor, I explained to him the phenomena that I had
discovered.  He then told me that an FCC mobile crew had been in town
in December and had contacted him saying that his station was "way off
of frequency".  The owner checked and it wasn't, so he did nothing.  A
follow-up FCC check and written report (not from a mobile crew in
town--and still his files when I spoke to him) stated that the station
was on frequency.  Evidently the local crew with a local receiver was
getting apparent frequency deviations, too, with presumably state of
the art equipment.
     In efforts to develop a means of automatic monitoring which could
be recorded on a available double track millivolt chart recorder--but
with very limited funds and electronic skills--several approaches were
tried.  First were various frequency-to-voltage circuits.  Most worked
well only on square wave inputs and could not be adapted within my
range of skill.  Others required too high an input level.  None pro-
duced a steady, level output suitable for driving a meter.
     Second, a pair of oscillators was tried, one tuned slightly off
on each side of a local signal.  When a frequency deviation occurred,
and they would after varying periods of time--sometimes days, it was
instantly and plainly audible.  But again was not adaptable in any
known way to drive a meter and I could not be there twenty four hours
a day to make a record.
     Third, and best, was balancing the output of two identical radios
tuned slightly to each side of a signals through a center trapped
transformer, and driving a single meter.  with the volume controls and
tuning properly and carefully adjusted, the result was virtually no
output signal.  With a deviation this was thrown out of balance and
the meter would fluctuate wildly along with the modulation--which made
a line recording impossible.  I addition, with the radios imbalance
and the signal nulled, "untunable" (and therefore "un-nullable" light-
ning static from a hundred miles away made the meter unstable.
     Early in the investigation of this phenomena it was thought that
the dilatancy theory discovered at MIT some years ago was the probable
cause.  This involves the microscopic fracturing of rock under pres-
sure, the filling of these cracks with water, and thus higher electri-
cal conductivity of the rock.  The 365 foot wore and ground rod
investigated this possibility.
     However, a theory advanced by the radio engineer, previously
mentioned, who installs transmitter, seems much more likely to be the
actual cause.  His theory is that quartz under pressure vibrates
electrically and can then transmit radio waves.
     Quartz crystals are a very common use in the radio field and in
many other fields.  Quartz ignites on stoves, furnaces, bar-b-ques and
other gas appliances are a good example.  When the quartz is struck a
light blow, it emits a strong spark.  The engineer theorized that
radio frequency signals emitted by quartz are mixing with man-made
radio frequency signals and the resulting mix, as in a receiver's
mixing circuit, is the apparent deviation received.  In such case,
different stratas or "lumps" of quartz are emitting different frequen-
cies--due to differences in size and in pressure at different loca-
tions--which is why one frequency has different deviation from anoth-
er.
     Quartz is extremely abundant in Southwest Missouri, but is also
usually plentiful in most places.  There have been occasional com-
plaints by Dxers about the inaccuracies of digital readout receivers. 
In my opinion the engineers will never to cure this problem because
the cause is not within the receiver in all probability.  If the
apparent deviations vary from time to time and from frequency to
frequency, and sometimes do not exist, it most probably is not the
receiver.
     Almost all radios built today with standard dials cannot in any
way be useful for accurate logging of any kind without modification of
the dial--which usually is not too difficult to do.  Most people using
AM radios simply readjust the dial if it seems off frequency.  Local-
ly, some owners of clock radios set to an AM station have said that
occasionally the dial has to be readjusted for no known reason.
     After fifteen months of observations, record keeping, and experi-
menting, there seem to be several very definite conclusions and two
probable theories.  One theory may seem pretty far fetched, but so did
this whole subject of apparent tuning frequency deviations to begin
with--as I said, I think some had some doubts about my sanity for a
very short while!

                              CONCLUSIONS

     CONCLUSION ONE - Apparent tuning frequency deviations on the AM
broadcast band are a well-proven and now well-documented fact, and in
this area at least, are almost always existent on one or two of about
twelve most usually monitored frequencies, are frequent on many, and
usually range between one and three kilohertz--most often up-frequen-
cy.  Prior to a tremor, 10 khz is frequent.

     CONCLUSION TWO - Similar deviations, though not as great, can be
found in areas not located on or near known active fault areas,
provided one is looking for them with an accurate dial and keeps a
record of previous log readings.

     CONCLUSION THREE- they often increase to lesser degrees than
found before a tremor locally, and then decrease, usually suddenly.

     CONCLUSION FOUR - They increase very markedly before all local
tremors and decrease or vanish immediately after such a tremor.

     CONCLUSION FIVE - Sometimes following an increase and decrease
without a local tremor ensuing, in about 1.4 days a tremor can occur,
as one did, in Oklahoma (very rare there)--or in 6.36 days can occur
in California or on the west continental coastline, as four have.


                               THEORIES

     THEORY ONE - Pressure on rock and the quartz deposits in the rock
generate a signal mixing with broadcast band radio frequency signals
forming a mix which is received as an apparent tuning deviation.

     THEORY TWO - The well-known westward drift of the North American
continent is widely assumed to be caused by a very slow flow of the
soft, pliable plastic-like upper mantle beneath the crust, upward in
the Atlantic Ocean area, then westward, and then downward in the
Pacific Ocean area.  This material sometimes breaks through as volca-
nic lava.  The earth's crust is probably rough on the bottom just as
it is on the top.  Harder, denser portions of the mantle, moving
westward in relation to the crust, push against "bumps" and rough
spots on the bottom of the crust and cause the westward movements of
the continent.  If the very upper portion of the mantle is more toward
a semi-liquid state than usually assumed and there is more of an
actual flowing of this material, then the denser portions pushing
against crust rough spots could create pressure moving from one spot
to another westward.
     "Traveling pressure waves" thus created explain frequency devia-
tions in lessor amounts found where no known active faults are known
to exist--simply due to minor pressures.  This seems very solidly
supported by the loggings, for example, of frequency minor deviations
(during a quiet period in Southeast Missouri) in southeastern Wiscon-
sin, an area not known for faults or tremors.  This was done, in this
case, by a former chemistry instructor, now an industrial chemist,
with a Kenwood R-2000 digital readout receiver.
     "Traveling pressure waves" evidently push against a bottom-of-
the-crust "bump" here at the New Madrid Fault, sometimes cause a
tremor, and then move on westward in relation to the crust.  The top-
of-the-surface speed calculated to approximately twelve miles per
hour.  Therefore stress indicated in Southeast Missouri arrives on the
West Coast in about 6.36 days.  This makes it sometimes possible, even
with very rudimentary equipment, to predict quake risk for California
from Missouri, and the approximate timing, but not the severity. 
Local AM radio monitoring in California could probably indicate the
latter with a day or two additional last minute warning.
     To develop this phenomena and discovery into a useful and viable
quake risk forecasting and warning service there are several needs.


                                 NEEDS

     NEED ONE - A means of automatically monitoring and recording
deviations on a twenty-four hour basis.

     NEED TWO - A network of monitoring points across the country and
several stations in known fault areas.

     NEED THREE - A virtually instant means of transmission of data
from all monitoring stations to a central correlating point.
     Individually speaking, radio enthusiasts, particularly Dxers,
living on or near known quake-prone areas need to know of this phenom-
ena and modify and accurately calibrate a logging dial so that they
can easily become aware of ongoing deviations that may warn of a
direct threat to themselves.  With an accurate dial and a little
record keeping, they will soon come to know which deviations ar
permissible without constituting a danger, and which should be taken
seriously and carefully monitored.


A NEW book (due out the third week of August, 1992, is at the printer
AND IS titled:

"SUCCESSFUL QUAKE RISK PREDICTION - a do it your self manual" :-) 
                                              the smiley is mine!
DAJJA Enterprises  (608) 423-4159
Michael G. Knitter
P. O. Box 24
Cambridge, Wisc. 53523-0024

This 50-60 page 8 1/2 x 11 soft bound book will cost approximately $9
(plus/minus $5).  Both the author and publisher state that some degree
of seismic or RF knowledge is necessary to grasp the contents of the
book.  In other words, the reader should have basic knowledge of
earthquake mechanisms and RF radio propagation.  Your mileage may
vary.

~jack

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
|         Jack C. Lockhart         < SNAILMAIL                               |
|      Radio Systems Engineer         E-MAIL  > LOCKHART@uci.edu             |
|    Network & Telecomm Services     ! BANG ! > ...uunet!usc!uci.edu!lockhart|
|    2209 Central Plant Building      VOICE   > (714) 856-8477               |
| University of California, Irvine     FAX    > (714) 725-2270               |
|      Irvine, CA  92717-5475          HAM    > WD6AEI                       |
|              U.S.A.              COMP. PHONE> (714) 725-2238               |
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/
/     o o o o o o o . . .   ________________________________ _____=======____\_
    o      _____            |                              | |               |
  .][__n_n_|DD[  ====_____  |                              | |               |
 >(________|__|_[_________]_|______________________________|_|_______________|_
 _/oo OOOOO oo`  ooo   ooo  'o^o^o                    o^o^o` 'o^o         o^o`
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/