From: CP6uH@plains.NoDak.edu
Newsgroups: soc.culture.yugoslavia
Subject: Politics and Economics ( VREME NDA 22 Jul 1992 )
Date: 22 Jul 92 19:20:59 GMT
Organization: University of North Dakota at Grand Forks


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     "Vreme" News Digest Agency                       No. 43, July 20, 1992
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    Politics and Economics
    ----------------------


                                 War of Words


           The  first  Prime  Minister  of  the  new Yugoslavia has
           strongly  accused  the  policies   of  the  Serbian  and
           Montenegrin  leaderships. The  Montenegrins are  lauding
           the  Prime   Minister,  and  the   Serbian  leaders  are
           reiterating  through  clenched  teeth  that they brought
                                Cosic and Panic

    The  following fact  from the  global political  scene sticks out: Prime
    Minister  Milan  Panic  is  going  off  for  negotiations where the most
    prominent Serbian  figures would have  a hard time  passing as tourists,
    and  the army's  number one  took off  on a  tour of  the troops  on the
    Montenegrin  coast. At  the same  time,  the  army is  denying that  its
    aircraft  disturbed the  foreign warships  in the  Adriatic Sea, warning
    that  it has  an effective  defense against  a possible  infringement on
    Yugoslav territory.

    Two   Panices   (Milan   Panic   -   Prime   Minister,  Zivota  Panic  -
    Chief-of-Staff) and one Yugoslavia? One Panic  in the West, the other in
    the South?  These would be  hasty and unfounded  conclusions, regardless
    that  the uniformed  Panic told  journalists in  the Yugoslav Parliament
    that  the  army  leadership  will  study  the  inaugural speech of Prime
    Minister  Panic and  set itself  accordingly (to  the speech and program
    derived  from it).  The fact  that the  Federal Prime  Minister has also
    undertaken the duties of defense minister is surprising.

    Officers' obedience is a topic that  would not deserve mention here were
    it not  for the fact  that a civilian  is in charge  of the army,  after
    many,  many years.  The true  question is  will the  officers obey their
    minister  and prime  minister? This   has nothing  to do  with relations
    within  a small  group of  people, but  with what  the many analysts and
    experts assess as the decisive  fact for the forthcoming developments in
    Serbia, Yugoslavia and further afield  - much further than the territory
    of  the  former  Yugoslavia.  To  illustrate  the  significance  of this
    subject,  suffice it  to recall  that the  only visit Yugoslav President
    Dobrica Cosic (this  is as much as is  known to the public) paid  was to
    the officers.

    On the other  hand, it is clear that the  relations between the Yugoslav
    civilian  and army  leaderships  intertwine  with some  other relations,
    primarily with  the Serbian leadership. The  Montenegrin leaders, albeit
    offended at  not having the  prime minister's chair,  are praising Prime
    Minister Panic conspicuously  and at the top of  their voices. Dragoljub
    Micunovic (Democratic Party President) said  the same thing on Wednesday
    evening, only he gave a more candid explanation: Panic's program is good
    because it is very different from (Serbian PM) Bozovic's policy. Borisav
    Jovic (Socialist  Party of Serbia  President) also said  something worth
    mentioning:  "We brought  Cosic and  Panic." Informed  political circles
    maintain  that  Jovic  was  Panic's  right-hand  man  when  the  federal
    government was being  formed. Panic had his greatest help  on the eve of
    the Federal  Parliament session when Serbian  Foreign Minister Vladislav
    Jovanovic  joined  the  list,  and  after  midnight Aleksandar Mitrovic,
    hitherto Deputy  Federal Prime Minister,  when called thanked  Panic for
    asking  him to  accept one  of the  three posts  of deputy federal prime
    minister.

    Saying almost in passing that he  will give the Serbian Government a few
    more months in  which to pursue its economic  policy, Panic left Serbian
    Prime  Minister Radoman  Bozovic to  stew  in  his own  sauce. Panic  is
    engaged in creating conditions for  normal politics in all spheres, i.e.
    stopping the war and lifting the blockade, and Bozovic is about the pick
    the fruit of the economic life of his design.

    To illustrate  how the doctor of  economic sciences Bozovic plans  to do
    that, let us  mention some good news that could  be read or heard almost
    from all  sides on Thursday and  Friday. It goes: according  to official
    information, inflation in the first ten days of June was halved compared
    to the same decade of the  previous month. The main contribution to such
    a turn was made by the Serbian Government measures and the lowered green
    market prices. This  would be more than comical were  it not tragic. Let
    us recall  that it is  customary to calculate  price rises on  a monthly
    basis and  not for shorter periods  of time, and what  is published as a
    monthly report  represents a statistical observation  of prices from the
    20th day of one month to the 20th day of the next month. Therefore, even
    if the  Serbian Government, desperate  for some sign  of success, forced
    statistics to measure inflation in a ten day span it would natural first
    to report  on the inflation trend  in the last decades  of May and June.
    The  suppression  of  this  fact  can  only  mean  that it does not suit
    Bozovic, and this,  in the mildest of terms, says  that the data for the
    next ten  days are greatly distorted.  But, space and the  readers' time
    should not be wasted on such tricks, because it is known anyhow that the
    Bozovic  Government  is  pursuing  a  policy  of abolishing inflation by
    abolishing prices.

    If this same subject is transferred to the domain of Serbian President -
    Yugoslav Prime  Minister, then one  must say that  not even the  richest
    imagination could guess what Slobodan  Milosevic was feeling while Milan
    Panic spoke, literally above his head, words that were hard to swallow -
    even if  it were all said  for strategic reasons. It  is simply too much
    for the ears of Milosevic's  MPs and Milosevic's most beloved opposition
    MP (Seselj)  to hear Panic  say in  one  breath that there  is no hatred
    between  the  Yugoslav  peoples  and  point  out the erroneous policies,
    recall over  a million mixed marriages  and the fate of  their children,
    reject the creation of ethnically  pure territories and states, announce
    all  the  necessary  moves  for  recognizing  all  states created on the
    territory  of former  Yugoslavia and  for establishing  relations on the
    level  of states  up to  a customs  union (for  the beginning), intimate
    amnesty for all  who were proclaimed traitors because  they did not want
    to fight for national states and  policies and trials for war criminals,
    elections as soon as possible  and reinstating confidence in the elected
    authorities, freedom of the press...

    Panic was  elected Yugoslav Prime Minister.  It is good that  he himself
    asserted, at the  end of his inaugural speech, that  the real results of
    the Yugoslav Government will be measured only according to what has been
    achieved. That Panic had much less freedom that intimated in forming the
    government is less important than the space and real authority which the
    Serbian regime is giving him.

    In any event, there are  many unknowns to forecast further developments.
    Perhaps the greatest  novelty is that one can no  longer spend years, or
    months, in uncertainty.
                                                               Zoran Jelicic


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     "Vreme" News Digest Agency                       No. 43, July 20, 1992
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