From: rdonahue@spdcc.com (Bob Donahue)
Newsgroups: soc.motss,soc.bi
Subject: Re: Prediction of the Republican National Convention
Date: 17 Aug 92 17:00:35 GMT
Article-I.D.: spdcc.1992Aug17.170035.19867
Distribution: na
Organization: insert anything here

tal@plts.uucp (Tom Limoncelli) writes:
>I'm going to go out on a limb here and post my predictions for the
>conference.  These were worked out over the last week based on my
>study of the various campaigns.  I don't have a degree in political
>science, but... well, here it goes:

>*1*  The platform will be revised to remove abortion and "choice"
>issues completely.  This will be a compromise measure due to the
>pro-Choice Republicans floor-fight.  Ex-Gov Tom Kean (NJ) might lead
>the fight.  By not officially being "either position" Bush will attempt
>to please both the radical right and the moderate Republicans.  This
>will be done so-as to neutralize the ability of NOW to launch a
>successful "base your vote solely on the abortion issue" campaign.

	Not likely given the %age of Fundies hand-picked to be
delegates.  This was pre-arranged, and sadly shows how the Religious
Wrong is more organizzed than people given them credit for (and much
more organized than we are, but that's another story).

	Don't forget - the words "Judeo-Christian" have explicitly
been added to the platform.  The likelihood that anything remotely
liberal will be included is slim.

>*2*  We will go to war.  Iraq will be accused of not letting us verify
>the treaty whether or not they actually let the U.N. in.  Troops will
>be shipped out.

	Not likely given the NYT article from yesterday and the reports
from the UN committee this morning.

>*3*  Something really bad will happen at the convention.  Either the
>indoor fireworks will backfire and injure people; a protest group will
>succeed in disrupting the ceremony (or broadcast of it) at a critical
>point; or etc.

	Who's to tell?  The only problem is that disruptions tend
to cause more trouble than they get attention.  But people who feel
desperate may see no other way to get tehri message through.

>*4*  Clinton/Gore will get more press than what is said at the
>convention.

	Several news/talk shows have already mentioned this in light
of thepoor TV ratings fo rthe DNC and the expected lower ratings for the
RNC.

>*5*  Either Bush or Quayle will not be on the ticket by the end of the
>week.  (If this comes true, it will be the only event that might get
>more press than Clinton/Core).

	Yeah, but this is a longshot.  1) the Republicans don't have
the balls to do this, and 2) GHWB can't admit when he's made a mistake.
There'd be no one to blame DQ on but himself, so therefore he won't
change the ticket.

>*6*  Something *really* bad about Bush will be revealed.  It will
>either have to do with banking, his health, or a report that Bush had
>Perot's phone tapped.

	Well, considering Bush is the ex-head of the CIA and we're talking
the same party and the same agencies that gave us Watergate, I'd
be surprised if there WEREN'T some covert activity going on.  From the
looks of things I expect Bush has been holding something back on Clinton
for several months.  Either that or he really has nothing.  But my
paranoia says that that isn't likely.

>*7*  No new allegations (the Genifer Flowers type) against Clinton will
>be revealed.

	Hard to say.  Bush has been really docile for the last few months.
That isn't his style.  It could be that this is to make him look less
of a media bully than he did in 1988, but given also the way he's reacted
(as opposed to responded) to groups at current press events (the marital
affairs, the MIA's etc.) it really could be that he's near edge of the
cliff...

>*8*  Bush will say at least one directly homophobic comment (rather
>than his usual covert comments).

	Could be.  We are after all  the new "Willie Horton" fdor this
campaign.  Even the city newspapers are picking up on this (The Boston
Gloge had an opinion piece that mentioned this, the current issue of
QW has this on the cover...).

>*9*  At least one "surprise speaker" will speak at the convention.

	I'm surprised that Weld is speaking at all...

>*10*  Bush will make a HUGE promise on the order of magnatude of "No
>new taxes."

	If he doesn't SAY anything, he comes off looking like a wimp.
And since the LAST time someone called him a wimp he invaded Iraq...
This is the catch-22 --- if he doesn't say anything, then Clinton 
can easily throw "status quo and change" in his face.  IF he DOES
say something, no one is going to believe him since he changes to
suit the polls....

>Now it's time to wait and see!

	Yup...  WAtch this space.
Newsgroups: soc.motss