From: bill@bilver.uucp (Bill Vermillion)
Subject: Re: Sony's CD advertising
Organization: W. J. Vermillion - Winter Park, FL
Date: Fri, 11 Sep 1992 16:52:54 GMT

In article <1992Sep10.172824@trc.amoco.com> znpt01@trc.amoco.com (Norman P. Tracy) writes:

>In article <1992Sep9.151145.25486@bilver.uucp>, bill@bilver.uucp (Bill Vermillion) writes:

>> In article <1992Sep8.153152@trc.amoco.com> znpt01@trc.amoco.com (Norman P. Tracy) writes:

>>>  They seem to have lost sight of the fact that one
>>>of the reasons compact cassette became the worlds most popular music media is
>>>that its CHEAP.

>> Norman - I'm old enough to remember when the cassette first came on the
>> scene.  It was touted as portable recorder, and it was never thought of
>> as a serious music device.

>   (Most of Bill's excellent history of music media and record company
>     greed from '60s on deleted.)

>> But CHEAP wasn't the operative word.  Convenience was.

>  Bill ...
>     ...    Convenience is a good thing much lusted after
>  by the public. I'll agree with you and amend my history of the compact
>  cassette to show it was convenience and a reasonable price that made it
>  popular. But with portable CD players shrunk down to the size of three
>  stacked jewel boxes do MD/DCC really offer added convenience to offset the
>  inconvenience of buying new hardware & software at premium prices?  I don't
>  see it unless the public is so enchanted with 'digital' that they are drawn
>  into the stores in a trance like state to flip down their overburdened charge
>  card for this latest new gee-whiz.  Rather I think the public also remembers
>  4-tracks & 8-tracks, and Beta vs. VHS, and RCA's failed video disks and will
>  thus be a hard sell for Sony and Philips in the middle of yet another format
>  war.

I agree on that point.  My own opinion is that consumers will forsake
the tape format for the CD.  That is because while the cassette gave
them mobile music, it also brought snarled cassettes, tape eating
machines, etc.

The 'silver disc' is a lot more visually appealing than the tape, and
unless they can give strong reasons to forsake CDs I don't think it's
going to do it - at least not at this time.

From an historical point of view, I can't see anything replacing the CD
for about 15-20 more years.

The music media has been generational.  People don't like to replace
what they have with newwer media for the same performance.

Mechanical 78 players lasted until about 1940.  Electrical 78 recording
started about 1926, but didn't supplant all the accoustice for abour 4
or 5 years.

The electric 78s gave way to the 45's and LPs starting with their
introduction in 1949.   The cassettes came in the mid-60s.

Each media's lifetime in the market was about one generation -
generation typically defined as about 33 years - or at least it was.

Put 25-30 years onto the introduction date of each media and you can
see that the generational media concept holds true.

Eletctrical 78s - 1925 + 30 = 1955  78 limited prod cont. until aprox '60
LP & 45         - 1950 + 30 = 1980  both virtually gone by '90
Cassette        - 1965 + 30 = 1995  - and CD's are making inroads now.
CD              - 1982 + 30 = 2012 = well, we'll keep an eye on this.

> I close out my thoughts on this subject with a story that makes the point for
> me.

> The day I wrote my first post on this subject one of the network 'morning
> shows' was doing a piece on the greatest new technologies for 1992. The
> guy doing the piece got to consumer electronics and the award goes to ta-da
> the Sony MD! He holds up a walkplayer and sez its great and its digital just
> like CD (no mention of data compression) and its recordable and its just plain
> wonderful. The newsperson host lady asks in a somewhat pained voice "does
>this mean you would have to replace all your CDs?" "Well ahh, yes." replies the
> guy doing the piece, and he hurries on to the next technological wonder.

Fits right in with my generational media concept, doesn't it?


-- 
Bill Vermillion - bill@bilver.oau.org  bill.vermillion@oau.org
                - bill@bilver.uucp 
                - ..!{peora|ge-dab|tous|tarpit}!bilver!bill

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