From: rehir@gauss.med.harvard.edu (Hirokatsu Watanabe 432-2275)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.japan
Subject: Re: nuclear Japan
Date: 30 Sep 92 19:53:14 GMT
Organization: Harvard Medical School


>Yeah, yeah we USA'ers are supposed to feel guilty about droppin' the boomer.
>Well, if we hadn't done it, the Russkies would have invaded Hokkaido, or
>even the Northern half of Honshu, and Japanese today would be complaining
>about returning the northern half of the country.  Meanwhile, military tensions
>on the Japanese archipelagos would have stifled the economies of both North and
>South Japan, preventing or at least delaying the revolution in consumer
>electronics.  Also, the USSR's economy might have benfefitted considerably.
>Hit teams from North Japan might have assassinated the imperial family & cause 
>all sorts of other non-fun stuff. 

    This have been said for long time by both Americans and Japanese. However,
it is clear that the atomic bomb in Nagasaki was not necessary at least. 
Because Japanese government decided to accept the Potsdam Declaration while
US was falling it in Nagasaki. In addition, it would be difficult for Russian 
to get Hokkaido in 1945, if US had not fallen atomic bomb, according to the 
historical fact.

    Almost of members in Japanese government dicided to stop the war on April
1945. At that time, Kantaro Suzuki became the Prime Minister. He asked Mr.
Togo to become the Foreign Minister. But He refused it, 'I opposed this war.
But this war started when I was the Foreign Minister. I can't become the 
member of Cabinet until this war finish.'
Prime Minister Suzuki said, 'No. This Cabinet will be made to stop this war.
I need your help.'  And Togo became the Foreign Minister.
    Japanese Navy already thought to need stopping war, because they had
no efficient weapon after the sea battle off the Mariana Islands.
    Only Army kept to assert keeping the war. But their political power
was decreasing since the resigning of General Tojo after the fall of Saipan
Island.
    At first, Japanese government planed to make peace throught USSR. 
However, Starling already agreed to enter the war against Japan in Yalta 
Conference. And the negotiation between USSR and Japan didn't get no
progress. Therefore, many members of Japanese government seriously
were thinking to accept the Potsdam Declaration, when it was released.
    Now, somebody may bring a counterargument saying that Japanese 
government stated 'We ignore the Potsdam Declaration' after its releasing.
However, this statement is the mis-translation of the statement 'We
witch the Potsdam Declaration calmly' which was reluctantly released by
Japanese government that got pressure from Army. They told the government
'why do you release no statement for the Declaration?'

    August 8 1945, when USSR declared war on Japan, Japanese government
had no way except the accepting the Potsdam Declaration. If the atomic
bomb were not fallen in Hiroshima, this decision would be made within a week.
Even Army couldn't oppose it hard. In fact, when some young military officers 
tried to occupy the Palace of Emperor and stop accepting the Declaration on
August 14 and 15, almost of Army took the side of suppressing them.

    If the decision to accept the Potsdam Declaration was late after a week,
could USSR get Hokkaido? Maybe it was difficult. On August 9, USSR started
to attack Japanese territory. But the main troops went to Manchuria.
In fact, on August 15 Japanese Army kept 1/4 of Sakhalin and almost Kuril
Islands yet. USSR got them after August 15. If USSR got more a week, 
it is difficult to got Hokkaido.

    In fact there was the idea of occupation dividing Japan by USA, UK,
China, France, and USSR just like Germany. But US government rejected it
in 1942.


********************************
*      Hirokatsu Watanabe      *
*------------------------------*
*  Moukarimakka?  Sapparideuwa *
*         Maido ookini         *
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