From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 09:00:07 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                05 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 005, 01/05/93
10.7 FLUX=124.9  90-AVG=139        SSN=099      BKI=3423 3323  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B2.5     FLU1=4.2E+06  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=3433 3223  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=021,042,017,038,029,020,018,028   DEV-AVG=026 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 1508UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.3   @ 1737UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1035UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1800UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2000UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0925UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 0331UT   BOUTF-MIN=55397NT @ 1925UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+110NT@ 2114UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 1024UT  G7-AVG=+077,+030,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1914UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 2302UT  G6-AVG=+096,-002,+038
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,130,135;SESC:125,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,012,012
    KFCST=3344 3332 2333 3322  27DAY-AP=020,015   27DAY-KP=3334 4344 3233 4332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7391 (S10E63)
       produced the only C-class flare of the period. Otherwise, only
       occasional B-class subflares occurred. New Regions 7393 (S18E02)
       and 7294 (S16E21) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7391 and 7388 (S05E70) may produce C-class flares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled levels for
       the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels were observed
       at some high latitude stations near 05/1200-1500Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Brief intervals of active
       levels are possible early in the period, especially at high
       latitudes.

            Event probabilities 06 jan-08 jan

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 jan-08 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal over the
       middle and low latitude paths, while high and polar latitude
       paths improved but remained slightly below normal.  Occasional
       fading, absorption and multipath activity contributed to the
       minor signal degradations observed over these higher latitude
       paths.  Conditions over all regions should become near-normal
       by 07 January with only occasional minor signal degradation
       during the night sectors of the higher latitude paths near the
       auroral zones.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S04E14  184  0300 CHO  06  007 BETA
7387  S23E17  181  0120 CAO  06  009 BETA
7388  S06W70  268  0160 DAO  08  011 BETA
7391  S10E63  135  0090 DAO  09  004 BETA
7393  S18E02  196  0020 CRO  04  005 BETA
7394  S17E20  178  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7389  S17E35  163                    PLAGE
7390  N12W61  259                    PLAGE
7392  N14E07  191                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 JANUARY TO 08 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7375 N14   103


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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