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Date:         Fri, 2 Oct 1992 09:29:27 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      More Ponderings on Brother Perot ... an essay
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kak@utrc.utc.com,
              writers@ndsuvm1.bitnet

More Ponderings on Brother Perot ...

I cannot help but be fascinated by the re-entry of H. Ross Perot into
the Presidential race. I keep dismissing this guy, and he keeps
popping up like a bad penny. Foolishly, I keep thinking folks will
see the petulant, spoiled authoritarian child I see, as Mr. Perot
refuses to answer questions about his use of security and moralistic
principles to exercise a very paternalistic control over employees
and associates. Here we have a man trying to buy the US Presidency,
duck severe press scrutiny by "quitting" for three months, creating a
picture of craveness for the major parties as they foolisly, publicly
court brazenly the "volunteer coordinators" to get Perot to support
Clinton or Bush rather than run. Perot, by not saying very much, and
being bristly and evasive with the press, might take 15% of the vote
nationally, cost the margin in seven to ten states for Clinton, and
in 5-10 for Bush. If Perot can take a state, it will probably be
Texas, with 32 electoral votes, 6% of the total 50.01% needed to win.

I think Ross causes the most trouble in California, Florida,
Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Utah, Idaho, Oregon,
New Mexico, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Virginia, Georgia and
Kentucky, at the least, and perhaps Nebraska, Wyoming and Nevada too.
The numbers get complicated. By one electoral count I've made - the
race is too close to call, with Texas being the margin of victory, by
only a few votes either way over the 270 needed. Perot cannot win, it
doesn't appear, but he could indeed become the "spoiler" he claimed
in July he did not want to be.

The polls give him about 9% today, with 32 days to go. He is reported
to be going to purchase a block of prime time (half hour) for
$600,000. He wants a balanced budget, more confidence & participation
in government and revitalized industry, cut spending and raise taxes
and more honesty from politicians. We shall see. It seems that the
man is strident, appealing to demogogic emotions rather than offering
much in the way of solidity. He does tap very dissatisfied,
apparently conservative and working class to middle class
anti-government feelings, but his "wishy-washy" "whininess" may yet
prove his undoing.

The debates MIGHT tell the tale for all of us to see, it remains to
be seen how it will play out, but as of today, it would not appear a
positive thing that H. Ross Perot runs, partyless with an unknown as
his running mate (and 68 years of age, Perot is 62, not exactly a
youthful ticket - what kind of health are these guys in, do we know
anything about any of them's health but Bush?), loaded with money,
intent on disrupting the US elections to salve his own ego, claiming
"the major parties fail to meet" HIS plan to change the future. What
a colossal ego. But, he will stir things up. Are we ready for the
next five weeks? VMS
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