From: earl@cco.caltech.edu (Earl A. Hubbell)
Subject: Shadowrun: Economics of Running
Keywords: Shadowrun
Organization: California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 1992 06:24:28 GMT




Corporation Report:  
	Economics of Independent Illegal Operatives - 'Shadowrunners'.

Abstract:  Statistical analyis applied with some wild assumptions
demonstrates 1) Shadowrunners are not generally a significant force
and 2) They are an economic preferred alternative to 'in-house'
operatives, despite general unreliability.

Body of Report:

Seattle of 2050:
Population : 3x10^6 individuals
Corporate affiliated: 1.5x10^6
Below Poverty: 1x10^6

Thus, we see economically independent units compose 5x10^5 individuals.
We rule out the 'Below Poverty Level' population, as any significantly
skilled/cybered/magic unit will be aggressively recruited/have entered
poverty voluntarily/will not be counted in standard census.

>From the UCAS census estimates, we have approximately 1% of the population
having 'significant' cyber-enhancements (so called 'samurai', 'riggers'
or 'deckers') or significant magical enhancement ('physical adepts').
Full mages compose approximately .1% of the population.

Thus, there are approximately 3x10^4 units of significant personal
power in Seattle.  Of these units, 3,000 are mages.
Due to aggressive corporate recruiting, it is estimated that only
10% of the 'significant' population may be considered 'independent'.
Thus, we have 3x10^3 significant units, of which 300 are mages.

For obvious reasons, counting this population is difficult, however,
it seems that only approximately 20% of this final group engage
in high-risk operations (the remaining 'independents' belonging
to various 'normal' occupations).

Thus, the 'significant' population available to 'shadowrun' consists
of merely 60 mages, 60 skilled 'deckers', approximately 120 riggers,
120 physical adepts, and 300 samurai (numbers do not add due to some
overlap in categories, and approximation errors).

Given the near-necessity of 'magical cover' on any significant 
operation, we see an operating population of approximately 100
'teams' of runners within Seattle, composed from a pool of
approximately 600 'powered' individuals, and approximately
2,000 skilled personnel in various 'support' positions (so-called
'fixers', 'detectives', 'security consultants', 'cannon-fodder'...)

This explains the 'close-knit' nature of an otherwise paranoid
profession - the 'teams' generally know of each other, at least
by reputation, and in the case of mages, almost certainly by
individual.  (deckers too).  They interact with the same population,
travel in the same circles, need the same information, think the
same way.

Thus, we see that although 'runners' form a relatively large force
on the scale they tend to operate, their disorganized nature tends
to leave them with little real impact on corporate operations.

Part 2:  Economics of Corporate/Shadowrunner interaction.

Seattle:
Median Income: 25 kY/year.
This figure is highly unreliable, due to the very visible presence
of 'unreported' money floating throughout many credit networks.
Cash-flow estimations are therefore difficult, and much more approximate
than any other computations.

Total cash available to non-corporate individuals:
approximately 10^10 nY/year. (note - most of this 'income' is in fact
passed back and forth between individuals of little note, or flows
from the UCAS government to the welfare recipients, and is then returned,
allowing the UCAS to claim{digression deleted})
Total cash available to corporate individuals:
approximately 10^11 nY/year (note - due to the 'pyramid' structure of
the society in 2050, most of the money is available to the top 1% of
the population, and is unreported due to various tricks with
corporate holdings, services provided 'gratis', etc...)

Due to the familiar 'money surge' as international financial markets
open and close during the daylight hours, approximately 3x10^9 nY
value flows into and out of Seattle each >day<.  This drives a fair
amount of 'high finance', but has little effect on the lives of
'independents'. {digression deleted}

Assuming corporations, for optimum functioning, require the occasional
'bending' of stringent regulations and laws, since 100% law enforcement
has been found to not be cost-effective in 'security maintenance' (see
Lone-Star report #115345: 'Optimization of Law Enforcement by the
Saad-Dine Algorithm').  Assume 99% of all corporate functioning may
be 'above question'.  Assume further that plausible deniability may
be established for corporate operatives in 90% of the remaining
cases.  This leaves .1% of funds available, indeed, nearly required,
to be spent outside the corporation on 'extra-legal' operations.

>From our previous numbers, we obtain an estimated 10^8nY/year available
in the Seattle area for payment of independent operatives.  Given
the estimated population of 10^2 teams, this works out to 10^6 nY/year
income per team - a high-paying income, cut into by the various
individuals in the network being paid for their support services.
(An interesting parallel to income tax may be made here - some
free-market assumptions about 'government by market forces' seem
to be confirmed.)

In practice, there is a strong stratification within runner society-
most exist in an environment of rapid cash-flow, and succeed in
merely a comfortable existence, punctuated by gambling with their
lives.  The rare high-success ratio teams are looked upon with
great awe, and keep most of the merely adequate teams 'playing
with the death lottery', and are often assumed to have some
'favor' or 'technique' that they have hit upon, when in reality
most of the difference comes from statistical anomalies (the
familiar 'gamblers paradox' restated).

Note that the total economic force available to the 'runners'
is about a factor of 10 less than the total population of 
'independents', and so plays only a minor role in the
economic life of the city (welfare recipients alone exceed
their cash, although most of it is spent on 'necessities').

Appendix:  Some interesting breakdowns, and error analysis.

The >total< number of 'runners', seems likely to be accurate to
within 50%.  Smaller categories may vary by up to 200% (number
of mages - shamans are especially notorious for not being counted).

With that in mind, however, some interesting secondary data may
be applied to our results:
Adjusted population ratios:
Human: .5 among independents
Ork: .2
Elf: .2
Other .1 
(these do not equal 'average' population ratios for Seattle, due to
aggressive recruiting of humans by corporations, however, the 
accessability of cyberware to humans seems to be larger, somewhat
balancing this trend).

Adjusted education ratios:
.7 High School or lower
.2 Bachelors or equivalent
.1 PhD or other advanced
(a large population of 'independents' tend to have informal or unusual
educations, if they have them at all, and so are (mis)counted in
the lower population.  Surprisingly, a large number of advanced
degrees are present in the independent population.)

Some consequences:
There are approximately 45 samurai/adepts presumed to have PhD's
in various fields - these subjects should probably be interviewed
for a psychological study, so we can identify dangerous trends in
our own employees.
Personal curiosity has led me to independently investigate the
two known dwarf runner physical adepts possessing PhD's.  It seems that
they are twin brothers, and interestingly enough, bitter enemies
on the street.  {deleted as digression}

				- Dr. R. Smith-Nabulsi
				Boeing-Mitsuhama Statistics Group 5.
[Dug this out of some corporate's personal files in his headware
memory, when a corporate extraction went wrong and we were forced
to put him on the open market - thought you might find it
amusing - Slash]
[I found a similar Renraku report on 'Corporate Cyberware:
Cash Efficient or Research Boondoggle' - made some interesting
points about cost-optimization within the corporate environment
for cyberware.  - Elephant]

-- 
Earl Hubbell - earl@tybalt.caltech.edu - Opinions solely mine.
"Talet a:r ta:nkandets bo:rjan och slut.  Med tanken fo:ddes talet.
Uto:fver talet na:r tanken icke." - Go:sta Mittag-Leffler.
"Number is the beginning and the end of Thought.  Number was born with Thought.
Newsgroups: rec.games.frp