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Date:         Mon, 28 Sep 1992 14:53:07 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Bosnia, Germany, Romania, (#775)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com,
              klur@maristb.bitnet, christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
              76701.103@compuserve.com

Once again, I feel I should tell you that my work load has increased,
and these reports are not as frequent as they have been. But, I hope
to continue the series as long as you will tolerate my writing of it.
I enjoy doing the reports and commentaries, I just have been more and
more busy since the semester began.

Russia-

RFE/RL reported today that the Russian Parliament had condemned
Georgia's continued military activity in Abkhazia, and suggested that
they would be willing to "mediate" the differences between the two
"warring areas." Related to this are a few other matters. One, that
Shevardnadze, enroute home from the UN General Assembly meeting,
stopped in Moscow unexpectedly, and was to meet with President
Yeltsin today. He reportedly "angrily denounced" the Russian
Parliament's declarations as an "unwarrented intereference in the
internal affairs of our Republic." Two, the Russians declared a two
month state of emergency in the Kabardino-Balkira "republic" of the
north Caucasus, adjacent to Georgia's northern borders, according to
an RFE/RL report, because of violent clashes between "thousands of
demonstrators" and Russian troops (with a reported 20 injuries) over
the detention 23 September of the chairman of the Confederation of
Mountain Peoples of the North Caucasus, Musa Shanibov. Thirdly, this
organization announced that its fighters in Abkazia would stay there
"indefinitely" while both the fighting went on and as long as the
situation in Kabardino-Balkira continues.

Also in the RFE/RL report of interest today was that Russia announced
that it will cut oil exports to the "CIS states" by thirty-forty
million tons over an unspecified period of time, mostly because of a
severe drop in production of 1 million barrels of oil per day.

RFE/RL also reported that CIS military chief Shoposhnikov stated over
the weekend that CIS missiles are still trained at US targets despite
assurances from Yeltsin earlier this year that they were not.
Shoposhnikov was reported to have stated that Yeltsin's declaration
was "political in nature and technically meaningless." He did state
that "many missiles" have been taken "off alert."

Bosnia-

This comment is in part an answer to one point raised by the
apparently Serbian poster to POLITICS this morning. He stated that
NPR was incorrect in reporting the killing of 200 Bosnian Muslims
last week near Travnik. Well, this morning, again on NPR, it was
reported that SERBS had confirmed that this incident HAD occurred,
near a place called Vaslich (?) Mountain,  though they only claimed
that "50 or more" had been killed, a separate report indicated that
188 bodies had already been recovered.  In addition, the poster
stated that 5000 Islamic mercenaries from Libya and Iraq are fighting
in Bosnia, and in the Travnik area. But, there is no independent (UN)
confirmation of this. In addition, over the weekend, it was reported
by many different media that in Banya Luka, "ethnic cleansing" of
Muslims is occurring in large numbers, (3-4,000, RFE/RL reported
today) in addition to seriously bad treatment of civilians, in that
the reports consistantly stated that large numbers of women and
children were forced from the city and made to march at gunpoint to a
place fifty miles away. Both Vance and Lord Owen stated that the
situation in north Bosnia "is much worse than we had thought."

A second point I would make is that I was rhetorically asked "why
did I hold the Serbs more culpable" than the Muslims or Croatians for
the violence in Bosnia? Again, at the risk of boring those who have
heard me consisteantly say this, I say that because Bosnia and
Croatia have been recognized by international bodies (UN, CSCE, and
EC) as sovereign nations, therefore "Serbian aggression" (which IS
occurring despite continued denials to the contrary) is happening on
sovereign soil not belonging to them in the actual sense, only in the
claim sense, maybe. Croatians and Muslims are not being reported
carrying on aggression in Serbia or Montenegro, so I continue to call
the "aggression" in Bosnia much more a Serbian violation of
international law, the UN Charter, and the rights of sovereign
nations than what the Bosnian Muslims or Croats are doing. Again, I
do not absolve those groups from their violence, though defense of
homeland does have viability in law, nor from acts of murder or
detention those groups have probably done.

One more comment offered on this suggested that Muslims were feeding
Serbs to zoo animals in Sarajevo. Again, no independent confirmation
by ANYONE that would confirm that such barbarism might be occurring.
I suggest that ALL detention camps throughout Bosnia are evil things,
regardless of who is running them, and I agree that ALL sides have
them in violation of moral law. In my suggestion about war crimes
tribunals, I DID suggest that that ALL the leaders of the warring
parties be brought to the bar of justice, not just Serbs. If they are
innocent, let them prove their innocence.

Romania-

RFE/Rl reported that the elections in Romania on Sunday were
"orderly" in comparison to the elections of May, 1990, and that 75%
of the 16.4 million elegible voters voted for one of the six
candidates for President and 10,600 candidates from 83 parties
contending for 471 seats in the two-house Parliament. 500 foreign
and 8000 domestic observers oversaw the election. It would appear
from early returns that a coalition will have to be formed to have a
new government, and that current President Iliescu of the Democratic
National Salvation Front will have to face Emil Constantisescu of
the Democratic Convention in a 11 October run-off election.

Germany-

Over the weekend, a Holocaust memorial near Berlin was burned. This
memorial was reportedly on a site where a former concentration camp
had been, and it was reported that neo-Nazis had caused the fire. The
next day, in Potsdam, a reported 2000 anti-Nazi demonstrators were
stated to have formed a "human chain" to stave off an attack on a
refugee center by reported rightists and "skinheads."


Bosnia continues to be a painful reminder that much more needs doing
by ALL parties to cease the conflict as soon as possible. Food
supplies in Sarajevo dwindle, no relief flights are possible because
of renewed fighting in the airport area, and mass starvation there
will indict us all for callous indifference if it occurs. The
internal situation in Russia appears much more restive than most of
us realize, and both in Georgia/Abkhazia and in Nagorno-Karabakh
(despite an alleged ceasefire) the fighting goes on unabated. The
deporable violence in Germany appears to not want abatement, and the
rightists are calling the tune on the refugee question, or so it
seems. Exclusion and mistreatment will not solve these problems,
negotiation and genuine committment to peaceful solutions might. It
remains unclear that anyone is committed to such a course at this
time. This concludes the 31st "file" of these reports. VMS
Comments: Gated by NETNEWS@AUVM.AMERICAN.EDU