From: hani@mx.engin.umich.edu (Hani Abinassif)
Subject: Re: One Lebanese for every three people.!
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 92 17:54:35 EDT
Organization: University of Michigan Engineering, Ann Arbor
Originator: hani@mx.engin.umich.edu


In article <1992Jul21.112507.13479@njitgw.njit.edu>, elie@hdtv.njit.edu (...NADINE...) writes:
> 
> From CLAO via Leb-Net:
> ----------------------
[.....] 
> The survey is published in Monday's edition of Al-Wasat. It was conducted
> by specialized Lebanese pollsters between early June and early July, and
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> covered all parts of Lebanon with the exception of the "security zone" and
> Jezzin.
> 

Specialized?! eh...Could you provide the source?  
I (IMHO) do not believe there is public opinion in Lebanon.  As Ziad
says, Ourtet A'alam majmouA'een. It is rarely that you see  a Lebanese 
(in genereal) who is committed to an ideology, a system of government,
principles, political activism (ala Olf Palme style),  environmental
awarence (GreenPeace style) or social activism...To collect a poll
that will reflect the Lebanese "public opinion" is one of the
statistical delmma's...it is not that simple, especially with that
small sample size, subjectivity, and ill conditioned attributes... 

> A sample of 1,000 Lebanese were selected according to criteria such as
             ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> regions, sects and social class meant to convey an accurate picture 
> of opinion among ordinary citizens.
> 
> The poll's major finding was that the majority of those questioned had
                                     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> no intention of casting their ballots.

I am interested in the type of questions asked, numbers and sites...

> 
> Al-Wasat noted that the respondents did not hesitate to openly state 
> their condition - that General Michel Aoun should run in the elections.
> One of the pollsters' observation was the existence "of a current
> supportive of Gen. Michel Aoun in a number of Lebanese regions."

How strong is that "current"?  Can you provide numbers?  I can not
judge, since I have been out of Lebanon for long time.  However, from
an outsider's watchfull Lebanese point of view, Aoun should be on the
bottom of the list of those to_be_supported, because of the destruction
he and other war lords caused, not only on Dahia, West Beirut, and
Jabal but also to East Beirut from Joubail to Ashrafiah...His personal
ambitions to be a President, his ill-motivated politcal alliances, and
political inexperience cultivated destruction, more killings, and
abuse of authority...A "Public Opinion" who show support for such
abusive "General" is "AOurtet A'alam" that are desperate beyond 
belief.

> 
> The survey also found overwhelming public support for participation
> of Lebanese expatriates in the general elections. Al-Wasat noted that
                                                    ^^^^^^^^^^
> there was a "near-consensus" on this issue, perhaps in view of the fact
> that emigration has affected all religious communitites, and there is "not
> a single Lebanese family" that does not have at least one of its members
> abroad.

Is this the paper right name?  What is meant by "near consensus"...is it
meant to say "HALF-OF-THE-TRUTH"....Does anyone know this "Al Wasat" ?

> 
> One of the poll's finding was that the Druze of the Shouf mountains are not
> only opposed to elections in the presence of any foreign armies, but also 
> want the Christians to return to the Shouf to take part in the ballot.

How can they (Druze) oppose the elections, but ask the christains to come and 
take part in it.  My concern is how the poll determined that observation.

> 
> Among the observations made by the pollsters was that people in several 
> areas expected to be bribed before casting their ballots.

Although such an observation is not far from the truth, I wonder how 
did this poll quantify it and how the question was posed.

> 
> In the southern city of Sidon, people expected an Israeli invasion to precede
> the elections.
> 
> And one problem encountered by the pollsters in the Bekaa, the South and
> the northern city of Tripoli was the large number of non-Lebanese.
> Al-Wasat wrote that they found only "ONE LEBANESE FOR EVERY THREE PEOPLE".
> 
> Regards, Elie.

Most of the conclusions are based on individual observations, rather than
a scientific consensus...It would better to label it a such...unless you can
provide more concrete numbers...

-Hani
-- 
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