From: GCTHORNE@idbsu.idbsu.edu (Broward Horne)
Subject:      Re:  Maybe I'm paranoid ( 1929 : 1992 )
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 92 16:48:33 MST
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In a previous article, jon@lindy.Stanford.EDU (Jon Corelis) says:

>   There seems to be a consensus among both liberal and conservative
>economists that the absolute, totally, completely worst thing a
>government can do during a prolonged recession/depression is to sharply
>raise trade barriers and risk setting off a protectionist international
>trade war.  Yet it seems the Bush administration, by imposing
>astronomic duties on EC wines and threatening that there's more to come,
>is toying with exactly that idea.
>
>   I'm not usually given to conspiracy theories, but I find myself
>wondering if the Bush administration isn't doing what it can to leave
>Clinton with the worst economy possible -- that George is, so to speak,

       Actually, what is really amazing here, is that just about
   NOBODY has put together the slowly coinciding forces of 1990 and
   1929.

       1919 - Europe in ashes.
              America gears up and booms, particularly in manufacturing
              and farm products

       1980s - Japan gears up and booms, in manufacturing
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

       1920s - U.S. becomes a big creditor nation
               Britian slowly abdicates world financial leadership

       1980s - Japan becomes a big creditor nation
               U.S. slowly abdicates world financial leadership
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

       1920s - NYSE booms.  Big.

       1980s - Japanese stock market booms.  Big.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

       1929 - NYSE crashes and finally bottoms out at 16% of it's
  top value.  2 years, 8 months later

       1990 - Japanese Market crashes, *appears* to have bottomed out
   at 35% of it's top value.  2 years, 4 months later.  Personally
   I'm still betting on it to drop to 16% or so.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

       1920s - worldwide entries into manufacturing and farm products flood
               the markets.  Towards the late 20s, commodity prices begin
               falling while new production continues to come on-line

       1980s - intense worldwide competition results in a flood of
               manufacturing and farm products on world markets.
               Commodity prices fall, even as more production comes on-line
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Late 1920s - strained world-wide relations, as each country seeks
                     to support it's economy with exports.  Trade wars loom.

        Early 1990s - strained world-wide relations, as each country seeks
                      to boost it's economy with exports.  Trade wars loom.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Late 1920s - Early 30s :  Racism is rampant, due to economic ills.
                                   Result - WWII, Nazis, etc.

         Late 1980s - Early 90s :  Racism re-emerges in Germany, U.S.
                                   U.S.S.R., Bosnia, Middle East, due to
                                   economic ills.

                                   Result -  ????
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    No.  No conspiracy.  Historical economic forces in action.


    Personally, I now believe that the Federal Deficit would have rocketed
    no matter who was in office.

    I'm pretty sure we'll see an honest-to-God autocratic government in the
    U.S. soon.  It will be the "will of the people".  Due to economic ills.
    More violence.

    I really don't see a happy ending for *this* story.
Xref: sparky talk.politics.misc:58285 alt.politics.elections:22703 alt.war.vietnam:437