From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: YANKEE REFLECTIONS ANYONE???
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1993 21:37:22 GMT

In article <1993Jan22.120830.1@eagle.wesleyan.edu> jpollock@eagle.wesleyan.edu writes:
>In article <1993Jan19.024549.20444@cs.cornell.edu>, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>> 
>> Kelly?  Patience?  You must be kidding.  There are only a handful of
>> consistent .300 hitters in the majors, and Kelly isn't one of them.
>
>He has SOME patience, obviously, because he walks enough to get basestealing
>chances.

Huh?  This doesn't follow.  Even those hitters who walk FREQUENTLY
will have more singles than walks (there surely aren't more than a
half-dozen hitters in the league for which this isn't true).  Walks
are important, but it is quite conceivable that a batter might steal
40 bases a year without ever walking.  Of course that same batter
might be able to steal 60 bases a year if he *did* walk...

>And he does walk a decent amount.

No, he doesn't.  Kelly walked 41 times last year in over 600 plate
appearances.  While that is a better rate than Andre Dawson, it is
probably worse than about 80% of the players in the majors.  Certainly
worse than the large majority of outfielders.

His OBP isn't horrible because he hits for a good batting average.
(Though his OBP isn't anywhere close to what you want from a leadoff
hitter.)  But patience?  Kelly has practically none.

>> Kelly has whined ever since being moved out of CF.  He also has been a
>> bit injury prone over the years.  I suspect both of these figured
>> highly in their thinking...
>
>don't forget, O'Neill was doing his share of whining in Cincinatti.

Hey, I didn't say that either of these thoughts were justified, now
did I?  In fact I implied that I thought they *weren't* reasonable
reasons for the trade.

>What are the chances that impatient
>Steinbrenner, when he has Williams, Barfield, Tartabull, and others waiting in
>the wings, is going to give O'Neill time to pull out of those slumps?

Barfield is no longer with the team.  O'Neill will have to fight it
out with Gerald Williams and Dion James, but that's about it.
Tartabull is definitely *not* "waiting in the wings".  He's going to
be starting in left field.

>Yeah, I think it'll be close.  Personally, I like Baltimore's manager
>better. ;) The Blue Jays mortgaged their future by picking up so many
>veterans, but they're not going to pay the price for a year or two....

I wouldn't count on it.  Remember Jack Clark, Wade Boggs, Mike
Schmidt, and others.  With any player over the age of about 32, there
is a significant risk that they will suddenly and entirely cease to
produce.  Von Hayes.  Jack Clark.  Wade Boggs.  I can't really say
that Stewart or Morris or Molitor *will* be a total failure next year.
But when you have those three *and* Carter *and* Borders *and* White,
and no real depth to replace any of them (not that I know of, at
least...  Unless Domingo Martinez is able to play the OF?), the
probability of catastrophic loss at *some* position is pretty high.

Veterans are nice, I suppose, and sometimes you can get a true bargain
performance (see Dave Winfield last year).  But they are in some ways
a disaster waiting to happen (see the Red Sox last year).

-Valentine