From: jmorriso@ee.ubc.ca (John Paul Morrison)
Subject: Re: Plan S -- Quebec separation
Organization: University of BC, Electrical Engineering
Date: Mon, 9 Nov 1992 01:37:15 GMT

In article <schuck.721246138@sfu.ca> Bruce_Schuck@sfu.ca writes:
>(Gerry Gryschuk) writes:
>
>>>In article <schuck.721092172@sfu.ca> Bruce_Schuck@sfu.ca writes:
>>> Do you think they would give it to us?
>>> Would it jeopardize the FTA with the US?
>>> How long would it take to negotiate?
>
>>Consider that by the time the seperation of Quebec got to a point where it
>>was a reality we would be working under NAFTA(I'm not sure but I imagine
>>this makes the FTA between Canada and the US null and void). The threat
>>of TROC,the US and Mexico ganging up on Quebec to exclude them from
>>the North American market should be sufficient to make them sign on.
>
>Bill Clinton is a protectionist. NAFTA will not pass.
>
>"Ganging up?" Quebec will have to beg the US into allowing them entry

You should pay a bit more attention to what the man says. He has already
endorsed it (albeit with murmurings of reviewing it. As if he'd sign the
bill without reviewing it) Getting it past congress is another matter.

>into the FTA and the US under Clinton will say NO!
>
>>I'm thoroughly convinced this is a minor problem which could be settled
>>within a couple of months at the most.
>

The US would welcome Quebec into NAFTA with open and loving (And self-serving
arms). They would rush Quebec in, and try and use it to gain concessions
from the rest of Canada. The US would have it easy playing Canada and Quebec
against each other.

>It would be years before a change in the FTA would be possible.
>Remember, if we open up the FTA, then all the special interest groups
>in the US would demand concessions from us for sponsoring it and from
>Quebec for wanting to join. There is very little benefit for the US in
>allowing such a small market into the FTA.
>

It could take a year, and probably less, because of the existing FTA, which
would just carry on with Quebec, but they would open it and win concessions
from QUebec, they would then try to use this to get Canada to give up its
gains in the FTA.

>
>>If the West insisted on forcing Ontario to establish markets that
>>were not beneficial to them Canada as a country would be finished.
>>At least by your logic it would be. Ontario is in a much better
>>position to leave Canada then the western provinces.
>
>Ha ha ha ha ha. Ontario is in a post-industrial slump from which it
>may never recover. Toronto leads the country in unemployment.
>The provincial deficit soars above 10 billion [I admit out NDP gov't
>may try to catch up :( ]
>


This is extremely worrying. A Globe&Mail article portrayed that the 
metropolitan Toronto aream and to a lesser degree the rest of Toronto
was an economic powerhouse (and lets not deny it, Ontario had the strongest
economy for several years, with 3-4% unemployment in T.O.)

However the government (we can't blame the NDP yet) and the feds bled Toronto
the cash cow dry. Toronto couldn't reinvest in its economy, instead revenue
was sucked out to pay bills accross Canada (equalization payments) and
for rural Ontario.

It's not difficult to imagine that this scenario is accurate, since governments
have been spending other people's money for years; but in this case they
effectively killed the economic engine.

Now fine, that's in Ontario. But now only BC (and ALberta) are the only
remaining solid economies in Canada. Guess who the feds are going to try
and wring even more moeny out of? BC and ALberta!

For years Ontario, BC, and ALberta have paid out more money in taxes than
they receive in equalization payments. It's time for the "have" provinces
to say enough is enough. IF worst comes to worst, old Mikey Harcourt should
act unilateraly to end the bloodletting. The BC govt. is complaining right
now how the feds are (unilaterally) cutting federal transfers that
we are OWED (since the money was raised here). BC has pressing spending
problems, and while costs should be cut, BC needs to reinvest in our
economy, and we can't do that if the feds keep draining more money
out of the province than they put into it.

>That sure is switch. Ontario and Quebec preferred captive markets in
>the Maritimes and West and high tariff barriers to protect them from
>competition. What you forget is that BC has been buying manufactured
>goods from Central Canada for decades at inflated prices. We can buy
>them cheaper from the Pacific Rim.


that's for sure. Ontario's economy is getting a shake up with free trade,
because they aren't used to playing hardball with the USA. 
>-- 
>============================================================================
>"We've got to get bigger guns" -- Dick Durkin                  schuck@sfu.ca
>============================================================================


-- 
__________________________________________________________________________
 John Paul Morrison                     |  
 University of British Columbia, Canada |  
 Electrical Engineering                 |   .sig file without a cause
 jmorriso@ee.ubc.ca              VE7JPM |  
________________________________________|_________________________________
Newsgroups: can.politics