From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Js/Braves
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1992 18:02:14 GMT

In article <Bw84IB.B77@ns1.nodak.edu> sivaram@plains.NoDak.edu (Sivaram Hariharan ) writes:
>
>A question for Valentine.....
>
>What is ur prediction for the World-Series...
>
>Could u please post what do u think of this WS.

Sure, though I'm not sure my beliefs make any difference...

First, I will note that I'm not park-adjusting anything.  This is
reasonable, because I'm comparing both offense and pitching.  And so
the park effects should cancel out anyways.  And it makes life easier
for me.  I *still* have to league-adjust, though, for head-to-head
comparisons of pitchers.  (Though not for team numbers.)  If you don't
understand this, forget about it.  Just trust me to do my best to get
relevant comparisons.

The Braves were close to the top of the NL in offense.  But so were
the Jays.  And the NL didn't have any teams as strong offensively as
the Tigers were in the AL.  But all things considered, the offenses
are comparably good.  The Jays have the better "big bats", but the
Braves have more players contributing.  The Braves also led the league
in pitching, while the Jays were middle-of-the-pack in ERA.  But this
is deceptive.  The Braves had no starters with an ERA worse than
league average.  While the Jays had 57 starts from Stottlemyre, Stieb,
Hentgen, and Wells.  Furthermore, the Jays have added Cone.  I think
the pitching is closer than the averages look!

Head-to-head?  I'll do my best here (though this is *really* hard):
The Braves lead off with Nixon and Blauser.  While White may suck as a
leadoff hitter, Alomar more than makes up the difference.  The Jays
have a slight advantage at the top because they have more total speed.

Batting #3/#4, the Jays have Carter/Winfield to the Braves'
Pendleton/Justice.  While Carter lacks the OBP, Winfield makes up for
some of the difference.  And the Jays have *much* better power here.
Again, an advantage to the Braves.

Batting #5 (and #6, when playing in Toronto with the DH), we have
Olerud/Maldonado vs. Bream/Hunter.  Again, the Jays have the better
hitters.

The bottom three?  Gruber, Borders, and Lee vs. Gant, Berryhill, and
Lemke.  Well, Lee can out-hit Lemke.  Though that's not saying much.
:-) Borders and Berryhill are pretty close.  And Gant, bad as he has
been, is probably a bit better than Gruber.  The Braves have the
advantage here (and in the pitcher's spot), but IMHO it isn't enough
to make up for the Jays advantage in the top of the lineup.  Still, it
isn't like one offense dominates the other.  They are both strong
lineups with contributions from many players.

So how about the pitching?  Assume Glavine, Avery, Smoltz, P. Smith
against Morris, Cone, Guzman, and Key.  I have to take Glavine over
Morris.  Neither of them deserve the Cy Young, and neither has pitched
well in the post-season, but Glavine is very good while Morris is
merely solid.  Of course, if Jack comes through like he did last year
all bets are off...

Avery is good, but Cone is as good or better.  And he's certainly
hotter right now.  He finished the season *very* strong.  Smoltz vs.
Guzman?  IMHO, Smoltz is the best of the Braves pitchers.  But the
Guzman is the best the Jays have to offer too.  I have to go with
Guzman.  That game six outing was a true gem.  Leaving Pete Smith vs.
Key.  Key is an experienced pitcher and was throwing well at the end
of the season.  Pete Smith has better stuff, but has always been
erratic.  Until this year.  I'd have to bet on Smith, but not by much.

The starting pitching is *very* close.  The difference?  I think the
Jays have a stronger bullpen.  Ward+Henke is a dominating combo, the
best 1-2 punch in the majors.  And Eichhorn would be a closer on many
clubs.  Reardon, Pena, and Wohlers aren't *bad*, but they simply
aren't in the same class.

I think the Jays have the edge, but both teams are very strong and it
is a short series.  Anything could happen.  The Jays probably have the
advantage with the DH rule, the Braves without.  (Since the Braves
have more quality pinch-hitters, IMHO.)  My prediction?  A six or
seven game series, one way or the other.

-Valentine
-- 
Make outs, not walks!					tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Clemens four Cy Young!