From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Monthly Solar Terrestrial Review with Six Month Outlook
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1992 21:28:23 GMT

             --  MONTHLY REVIEW OF SOLAR TERRESTRIAL ACTIVITY  --
 
                     Summary for June 1992 and Six-Month
                              Solar Cycle Outlook 
 
                    Data Provided In-Part Courtesy of the
                   Space Environment Services Center, NOAA
                                   and the
                NRC / Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                     Penticton, British Columbia, Canada

NOTE:  BEGINNING WITH THIS MONTHLY REPORT, AN EXTENSIVE SET OF MONTHLY
       AVERAGES WILL BE INCLUDED AT THE END OF ALL MONTHLY SUMMARIES AND WILL
       BE BASED ON STD-MAINTAINED DAILY SGDB REPORTS RELEASED THROUGHOUT THE
       MONTH.


MONTHLY ACTIVITY SUMMARY AND SOLAR CYCLE OUTLOOK JULY 1992 - JANUARY 1993

     We are now in month 70 of solar cycle 22.  Activity levels were up from
the past several months while the average daily indices remained nearly the
same as May levels.  There were seven M-class flares and two X-class flares,
the first X-class flares since February 1992 (an X3.3 was observed on 27
February).

     Two regions were responsible for all of the observed flares.  At the
beginning of the month, Region 7186 (N10, L=119) produced two M-class events.
The first was an M2/2B at 07/0148 UT.  Associated with this flare was a 210
sfu radio burst at the 10 cm wavelength and a Type II radio sweep.  The
second was an M1/1B at 08/0849 UT with Type II and IV radio sweeps.  Region
7205 (N11, L=313) dominated activity levels at the end of the month, being
credited with three M-class events and two X-class flares.  The activity
began on 25 June with a long-duration M1/1N at 0740 UT, followed by a
long-duration M1/1B at 1757 UT, and culminating with an X3/2B at 2014 UT.
Associated with the X3 were a 10 cm radio burst of 4,000 sfu and a
significant Type IV radio sweep.  Region 7205 produced an M1/1F from the west
limb at 26/0415 UT and everyone thought that was the last of Region 7205.
But on 28 June, two days beyond the west limb, Region 7205 erupted once more.
This time with a long-duration X1/SF at 0514 UT.  Loops were visible at N11
and the associated 10 cm radio burst was 1,200 sfu.  A long-duration M1 prior
to and one following the X1 were uncorrelated but are presumed to have
originated in Region 7205 also.

     A satellite level proton event at the greater than 10 MeV level began at
25/2045 UT following the X3.  A peak flux of 390 pfu was recorded at 26/0610
UT, with some higher energy particles also detected.  The greater than 100
MeV protons peaked at 14 pfu at 25/2100 UT.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event ended at 29/1355 UT.  A maximum PCA of 5.6 dB was observed at Thule at
26/0930 UT.  The PCA ended at 27/1000 UT.  There were several sites which
reported a weak ground level event (GLE) associated with this activity.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active.  The most
disturbed day a mid-latitudes was 12 June when minor storm conditions
prevailed.  A distinct source for this disturbance was not determined.  Some
periods of minor to major storming were recorded on 29 and 30 June, most
likely a reaction to the X-class flaring of 25 and 28 June.

     Activity levels appear to be on the rise.  Several regions this month
have been "hotter" and more magnetically complex than regions of the past
several months.  Although in the declining phase of cycle 22, activity in
this cycle has dropped too fast and is too low when compared to previous
cycles.  Therefore, a return to more active levels is likely and is probably
what we are beginning to see.  Most experienced observers expect to see an
increase in activity with a peak sometime around September with average 10.7
cm flux levels at about 160.


    RECENT SOLAR INDICES (PRELIMINARY) OF THE OBSERVED MONTHLY MEAN VALUES 
                          Last Updated July 23, 1992
 
              Sunspot Numbers                   Radio Flux    Geomagnetic 
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
       Observed     Ratio    Smooth Values   Penticton Smooth   Smooth
      SESC    RI   RI/SESC    SESC    RI      10.7 cm  Value   Ap  Value
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
                                 YEAR = 1989
Jan:  203.2  161.6  .80       189.2  141.9     235.4  190.2    19   16.7 
Feb:  211.0  164.5  .78       196.0  144.7     222.4  194.0    15   17.0 
Mar:  176.8  131.0  .74       204.1  149.4     205.1  199.7    41   17.6 
 
Apr:  172.3  129.3  .75       209.9  153.1     189.6  204.4    23   18.2 
May:  207.0  138.4  .67       216.4  156.5     190.1  209.3    16   18.8 
Jun:  297.3  196.0  .66       220.1  157.9     239.6  213.1    17   19.2 
 
Jul:  193.9  126.8  .65       221.1  158.1     181.9  212.6     8   19.1 
Aug:  243.0  166.8  .69       221.5  157.4     217.1  209.7    20   19.3 
Sep:  240.7  176.8  .74       221.3  156.3     225.9  207.2    17   18.8 
 
Oct:  217.4  158.5  .73       223.2  157.1     208.7  206.3    21   18.3 
Nov:  255.0  173.0  .68       223.4  157.3     235.1  206.1    19   18.4 
Dec:  217.8  166.1  .76       217.3  153.3     213.0  203.3    16   18.4 
 
                                 YEAR = 1990
Jan:  239.3  177.3  .74       212.4  150.6     210.1  200.4    14   18.6 
Feb:  184.7  130.5  .71       213.9  152.9     178.3  200.5    23   18.8 
Mar:  198.6  140.3  .71       212.7  152.0     188.8  198.7    23   18.6 
 
Apr:  196.1  140.3  .72       210.5  149.3     185.3  195.6    27   18.3 
May:  187.7  132.2  .70       208.1  147.0     189.7  192.4    16   17.6 
Jun:  168.9  105.4  .62       205.3  143.8     170.9  189.9    16   16.8 
 
Jul:  204.3  149.4  .73       203.8  140.6     180.7  190.4    14   16.2 
Aug:  269.4  200.3  .74       206.3  140.5     222.6  193.9    19   15.4 
Sep:  186.4  125.2  .67       211.1  142.1     177.4  198.3    14   15.0 
 
Oct:  219.0  145.5  .66       213.1  142.1     182.0  200.6    15   14.8 
Nov:  196.1  131.4  .67       213.7  141.7     184.3  201.2     9   14.4 
Dec:  208.0  129.7  .62       216.1  143.9     204.9  202.7     7   15.7 
 
                                 YEAR = 1991
Jan:  213.5  136.9  .64       220.5  147.6     229.4  205.5     8   17.4 
Feb:  270.2  167.5  .62       221.5  147.6     243.0  206.3    10   18.4 
Mar:  227.9  141.9  .62       220.7  146.6     230.0  205.9    27   19.1   

Apr:  215.9  140.0  .65       220.7  146.5     198.8  206.8    17   20.0
May:  182.5  121.3  .66       219.6  145.5     190.3  207.1    18   21.7
Jun:  231.8  169.7  .73       218.9  145.2     206.8  207.4    44   23.0
 
Jul:  245.7  173.7  .71       219.5  146.3     212.0  207.7    27   23.6
Aug:  251.5  176.3  .70       218.3  146.5     210.3  206.8    30   24.7
Sep:  185.8  125.3  .67       214.2  144.7     180.6  203.9    20   25.0
 
Oct:  220.1  144.1  .65       208.4  141.7*    201.3  199.7*   31   24.3*
Nov:  169.0  108.2  .64       202.2  138.1*    172.0  195.3*   33   23.9*
Dec:  217.7  144.4  .66       193.7  131.8*    223.9  188.9*   15   22.6*

                                 YEAR = 1992
Jan:  217.9  149.3  .69                        217.6           14
Feb:  238.2  159.6  .67                        232.1           31
Mar:  160.5  106.9  .67                        171.3           14

Apr:  144.0  102.2* .71*                       158.3*          11*
May:  106.3   73.5* .69*                       125.5*          16*
Jun:  104.7   65.3* .62*                       116.7*          15*

 
* = Preliminary estimates,  Unmarked = Final Values.
 
The lowest smoothed sunspot number for Cycle 21, RI = 12.3, occurred in 
September 1986.  The sunspot maximum for this cycle (cycle 22) occurred in 
July 1989, with a peak smoothed sunspot number (RI) of 158.1.

Note: Prior to June 1991, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux measurements
originated from the Algonquin Radio Observatory near Ottawa.  From June 1991
onward, the flux has been (and will continue to be) measured from the
Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, British Columbia,
Canada.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------
      DAILY VALUES OF SOLAR FLUX AT 2800 MHz (PENTICTON-DRAO) AT 2000 UT
      ------------------------------------------------------------------
                           Data Valid for June 1992

           Data Courtesy of the National Research Council of Canada
                      Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics
                   Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                         Penticton, British Columbia
                                    CANADA

Series D is the best estimate of absolute value and is obtained by using the
multiplier 0.90 recommended by Commission V of URSI.

       Observed                              Adjusted to 1 A.U.

Jun 1992      Series C                   Series C          Series D
--------      --------                   --------          --------
    1            98.6                      101.4              91.3
    2           102.1                      105.0              94.5
    3           106.9                      110.1              99.1
    4           108.3                      111.5             100.3
    5           115.0                      118.4             106.6
    6           119.6                      123.2             110.9
    7           115.7                      119.2             107.3
    8           115.2                      118.7             106.8
    9           118.6                      122.3             110.1
   10           125.4                      129.3             116.4

   11           129.0                      133.1             119.8
   12           126.7                      130.6             117.5
   13           123.6                      127.5             114.8
   14           123.3                      127.2             114.5
   15           120.8                      124.7             112.2
   16           119.1                      122.9             110.6
   17           130.1                      134.4             121.0
   18           116.0                      119.8             107.8
   19           115.3                      119.1             107.2
   20           113.1                      116.8             105.1

   21           117.4                      121.3             109.2
   22           116.1                      120.0             108.0
   23           121.5                      125.5             112.9
   24           117.9                      121.8             109.6
   25           123.3                      127.4             114.7
   26           111.6                      115.3             103.8
   27           109.5                      113.1             101.8
   28           108.3                      112.0             100.8
   29           110.7                      114.4             103.0
   30           122.9                      127.0             114.3

   Mean:        116.7                      120.4             108.4
May's Mean:     125.4                      128.2             115.3
Difference:    -  8.7                     -  7.8            -  6.9

3-Month Mean :  133.5                      136.1             122.5
3-Month Trend: - 20.9 / month             - 19.7 / month    - 17.7 / month


   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   EXTENSIVE SUMMARY OF AVERAGE SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR JUNE 1992
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
				 (Based on SGDB data released by the S.T.D.)

10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux: 116.69
Sunspot Number: 104.70
Boulder A-Index:  13.60
Planetary A-Index:  15.80
Background X-Ray Flux (1-8A): B3.44

Proton Fluence at > 1 MeV: 4.2497e+06
Total (non-averaged) Fluence at > 1 MeV: 1.2749e+08
Proton Fluence at > 10 MeV: 7.7740e+05
Total (non-averaged) Fluence at > 10 MeV: 2.3322e+07

Average Daily Deviation of the Boulder Magnetometer:  25.97 nT

Short Wave Fadouts (SWFs):   0.33
Total Number of SWFs during Interval:   10
SWF Durations:  20.33 minutes
Total Duration of SWFs during Interval:   610 minutes

Maximum X-Ray Flux: M2.31
Minimum X-Ray Flux: B2.85
Average Daily X-Ray Flux: C1.46

Maximum Neutron Counts:  +2.70%
Minimum Neutron Counts:  -2.23%
Average Neutron Counts:  +0.11%

Maximum Polar Cap Absorption (PCA):  +0.50 dB
Minimum PCA:  -0.36 dB
Average Daily PCA:  +0.19 dB

Maximum Total Geomagnetic Field Strength at Boulder: 55271.57 nT
Minimum Total Geomagnetic Field Strength at Boulder: 55218.23 nT
Average Daily Total Geomagnetic Field Strength: 55247.53 nT

Maximum Geomagnetic Field Strength at GOES-7: 128.33 nT
Minimum Geomagnetic Field Strength at GOES-7: -20.60 nT
Average Daily Field Strength of Parallel Component at GOES-7:  84.30 nT
Average Daily Field Strength of Earthward Component at GOES-7:  51.63 nT
Average Daily Field Strength of Perpendicular Component at GOES-7:   7.93 nT

Maximum Geomagnetic Field Strength at GOES-6: 138.20 nT
Minimum Geomagnetic Field Strength at GOES-6: -18.97 nT
Average Daily Field Strength of Parallel Component at GOES-6:  96.87 nT
Average Daily Field Strength of Earthward Component at GOES-6:   8.27 nT
Average Daily Field Strength of Perpendicular Component at GOES-6:  36.03 nT


**  End of Monthly Report  ** 
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