From: kolt@quads.uchicago.edu (Matt K/Gonzo)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Pai Gow Poker
Keywords: 2.5, not
Date: 16 Apr 92 14:14:28 GMT
Reply-To: kolt@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations

In the rebuttal article you, (Mark Stantz) write:
>In the first follow-up I write:
>>In the original article (which was on a different thread) you write:
>>>Keep track of what your average bet is; the house PC is exactly 2.5%, so
>>>figure out how much you're willing to pay for the privilege of playing each 
>>>hand, multiply by forty, and the rest is all hocus pocus.
>>Well, Mark, your strategy is sort of interesting, but it seems to me that there
>>are easier ways to fool the pit. But I like your style. :-) On the other hand,
>>I don't like your math! My raw guesstimate of the house advantage for PGP is about 6-7%, since you lose your full bet when you lose, you win 95% of your bet
>>when you win, AND it's not an even game: you lose a tie in the small hand. 
>

>	Okay, it's not exactly 2.5%, but I'm not convinced it's worse than
>roulette.  Here's a quick perl script:
>
[neat code deleted, 'cept for parts in major question]
># Since no money changes hands during a push, we don't model pushes at all.
Sounds ok to me.
># Nor do we model that the dealer wins ties in the small hand.
Why not?! That's a lot of the point! You've played the variant of this with
the joker haven't you (pretty standard). It acts as an ace. This, and just
considering the fact that the two card hand is not randomly set, but a tie more
often than you would think, since there are some very common two card hands.


>foreach (1..$trials) {                                  # Play the hands
>  (int(rand(2))) ? $money += 4.75 : $money -= 5.0;      # 5% commission on wins
>}

Therefore this code is invalid. It is not simply a 50/50 chance that you will
pay a 5% commission or not. Some rec.gambling.computer.programming.weenie 
probably has written a program to simulate this game. It's more complicated
than it looks. My friend Bill Cross, with whom I went to LV the first time
told me the same thing I'm telling you. I didn't think that taking ties made
any difference. Then I remembered how many times you need to put "face card or
ace, next largest card" or "small pair" in the small hand. With the joker in 
the game, "ace, next largest card" is a common two card hand. It seems to me
that the tie taking indeed hurts one much more than he might notice.

>
>	200K hands is a reasonable sample.  I don't see how the dealer taking
>pushes in the small hand could be worth more than a tenth a percent.  My 2.5%
>figure looks like a reasonable ceiling to me.  Of course, I am rotten at math.
>
Well you see my complaints. I sorta don't quite grasp the concept of vig yet.
It has always seemed to me that the vig was a full house advantage. I take
it only half the vig counts toward house advantage cuz they only take it on 
wins. So the horseshoe offering baccarat [a game I hate] with 4% vig is 
definitely better than 5%, but only .5% as far as house advantage is
concerned.
OK, Mark, your turn. Someone needs to find a math.weenie to figger this
out. I'm a lowly German major. :-)
Matt



-- 
Matt Koltnow   B0 t-- w- c+ g+ k s+ e r- p     "That's the way
Email: kolt@midway.uchicago.edu                 Lady Luck dances.
Ntalk: kolt@ellis.uchicago.edu  (or @quads)     Roll the Bones." --N. Peart
Remeber: Boycott the Imperial Palace. And 10x odds on 25c craps at Union Plaza.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling