From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Dream Team
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1992 05:58:24 GMT

In article <16c8lrINNgld@malibog.hal.COM> rc@hal.COM (Rolland Crunk) writes:
>
>I am *not* a Mets fan and never have been. Yes maybe my leaning towards
>David Cone is based on his superior strikeout numbers. But if a batter
>strikes out, there is no possibility of him to:
>
>	1. Get a base hit
>	2. Advance a base runner 
>	3. Reach base on an error

Strange.  If a batter hits a pop up that is caught by the second
baseman, none of these things can happen either.  I'd rather have a
pitcher who regularly gets easy ground balls than one who strikes out
half the batters and allows the other half to hit screaming line
drives.  So strikeouts clearly aren't everything.

Why don't we just judge pitchers on how many runs they *actually*
allow?  Surely Cone's superiority in strikeouts will make its effect
shown on that number, no?  (And it does.  If Cone *didn't* strike out
so many batters, he'd be downright average, given all those walks he
allows.)

>How does a particular stadium have any effect on how many batters a
>pitcher stikes out? A better pitching mound?

Hardly.  A more important factor is the hitting background.  Why do
you think lefties hit for such a high average in Fenway?  There's a
nice, 15' tall, dark-green wall to the left side of dead center.

>Cone is 29 years old. Nolan Ryan is 45; why is it inconceivable that he
>is beginning to show what he is capable of?

It isn't inconceivable at all.  Just unlikely.  But still, what has he
shown us this year?  A 2.75 ERA (worse, after his last start)?
Nowhere near as good as Maddux or Clemens.

>ERA? Yeah this stat is a pretty good indicator of how 
>well a pitcher is doing, however it can be a bit misleading and slight 
>variations really don't mean too much.

A bit misleading, perhaps.  But most people agree that a 1-run
difference is significant.  The difference between Clemens and Cone is
.55 (plus whatever happened to Cone tonight).  Add a .25 run/game
difference between leagues, and an adjustment for the fact that Shea
is a good pitchers park and Fenway is a good hitters park, and you get
about a one run difference.

>For example, here are 
>scores (save column deleted) from last week for the league I am in for a 
>few of the top starting pitchers:
>
>Name		W(+15)	L(-8)	IP(+1)	SO(+1)	ER(-1)	Total  | ERA(0)

Oh, this makes perfect sense!  After all, an inning where you strike
out the side while allowing three runs is just as good as a scoreless
inning without a strikeout.  Right?  NOT!!!!  (And people say that
the Game Score thingy overrates strikeouts!)

>The point I am trying to make is that statistics can be used in any
>way that one wants to in order to support their opinion. I place
>a lot of weight on strikeouts (see reasons given at the beginning 
>of this message), innings pitched (pitcher normally gets yanked
>when he gets in trouble), and ERA.

PITCHERS        W  L   ERA   G GS CG GF SH SV   INN   H   R  ER HR  BB  SO
CLEMENS,R      13  7  2.20  23 23  8  0  4  0 180.1 136  51  44  9  44 147
CONE,D         13  5  2.75  24 24  7  0  5  0 176.2 142  63  54 11  77 200

Strikeouts are certainly nice.  But are 53 K's worth 4 fewer innings,
six more hits, 33 more walks, and 12 more R?

For that matter, are 53 K's worth *any* difference in RA?  Is a
pitcher who strikes out 300 batters with a RA of 5.00 better than a
pitcher who strikes out 50 batters with a RA of 3.50?  If they were to
play each other, which would win more games?  The one who allows 5
runs per game or the one who allows 3.5 runs per game?  How do the
strikeouts magically make the 5-run-per-game pitcher better?

>Finally, my opinion that David Cone is (currently) the best pitcher in
>either league with Roger Clemens second is just that. My opinion (yeah
>I've got one too). You don't have to like it and I'm not gonna spend a 
>lot of time trying to justify it or convince anyone else.

Then keep it to yourself.  Or say something like "I like Cone better
than Clemens".  Or say "I'm playing in this fantasy league where Cone
is better than Clemens".  Or say "I'm living in this fantasy world
where Cone is better than Clemens".  I won't argue with any of those
statements...

If you post a stupid opinion on this board, it will be attacked.  And
personally, I think you rate strikeouts *far* too highly!  (And I
honestly don't understand how an intelligent person can believe that
getting more strikeouts somehow makes up for giving up more runs.)

-Valentine
-- 
Ob. woof: Clemens is the best pitcher ever!	tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Xref: sparky rec.sport.baseball:25082 soc.culture.japan:6889 fj.rec.baseball:1518