From: gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky - Hobokenite)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: My picks, AL/NL East
Date: 17 Dec 92 18:47:57 GMT
Organization: Somewhere in Hoboken


My early, way-before spring-training, "the Broncos aren't good, and I miss 
baseball" predictions for 1993.  Of course, big name free agents are out there, but 
most of the free agents won't significantly alter my feelings for the teams listed 
below.  So here goes.

NL East

1) Montreal - finishing 2nd might have been a fluke, but the team looks strong all
 around.  Trading Ivan Calderon and freeing up a spot for Moises Alou is a plus; 
Matt Stairs should finally get his chance to play this year, Spehr, the catcher they
picked up from the Royals has a good arm and some nice pop in his bat, and 
everyone else is back from last year.  With the youth, the team should only 
improve.  Only negative - Tim Wallach.  Can't play, can't field, can't do anything 
right now honey...with apologies to The Cult.

2) Pittsburgh - all the so-called geniuses will pick them 6th.  Not me.  Jim Leyland
has shown that he is one of the best managers in baseball, and the team isn't, all 
things considered, THAT much weaker than last year.  Kevin Young is a much 
better third baseman than Buechele was; King is much better offensively than 
Lind was, and Martin (the left fielder) isn't bad.  Granted, they're going to fall, 
but not by 20 games or anything.  The loss of Drabek hurts, but Denny Neagle 
can fill the void.  And I believe that Simmons will get a few role players, to come 
out of nowhere and platoon, to help the club finish this high in a weak division.

3) Florida - OK, OK, this is the only prediction that's based more on 
sentimentality.  They're my new favorite team, since the Giants are owned by 
morons, and I like Dave Dombrowski as a GM.  I don't like Lachemann as a 
manager, but they're allowed that faux pas.  Nigel Wilson will start in left field,
 hit 240 with 25 homers.  Orestes Destrade will pop 270 with 20 homers.  Dave 
Magadan will post a 380 on base percentage at third, and Jeff Conine will hit 300 
with 15 homers in right, all of these in a pitcher's park.  Bret Barberie wil improve 
in offense, offsetting Walt Weiss, and hopefully they won't play Chuck Carr in 
center.  Benito will be behind the plate, with pop off the bench from Steve 
Decker.  The pitching staff?  Hough will wind up with his fourth "second-wind" 
and have an era of about 3.8 in the park, and Jose Martinez will make Mets fans 
scream at Al Harazin.  And Bryan Harvey, if he's not traded to the Braves (Ron 
Gant and Mark Wohlers??  Please, Dave, get them!!!), will close some games 
nicely.

4) Chicago - Are they still in the league?  Maldonado for Dawson is a wash.  Jose 
Guzman and Greg Hibbard will helpthe rotation, but the loss of Maddux is 
painful.  Will Grace ever come back to what he seemed capable of producing?  
FrankCastillo will have a breakthrough year, but 
I don't see them promoting Lance Dickson or any other young arms. 

5) New York - Well, they *could* win the division.  If HoJo returns to previous
 form.  If Hundley hits 260 with his arm.  If Murray doesn't collapse.  If Kent hits 
260 with 15 dingers like he's capable of doing.  If Coleman stays healthy.  If 
Gooden, Saberhagen, and Franco recover from injuries to numbers they put up 
BEFORE injuries.  Way too many ifs for me.  By the way, Ryan Thompson is 
incredibly over-rated.

6) Philadelphia - Daulton's a great offensive threat, and I kept saying he'd do well 
- but not THAT well.  He'll fall back to earth.  Incaviglia and Thompson will 
make a nice platoon in left, Hollins and Kruk are solid ballplayers, but where's 
the pitching?  If Tyler Green recovers from his injury, maybe he'll step in, but I 
don't see much.  Danny Jackson isn't going to solve their problems, either.

7) St. Louis - Wow, I can't find much to say about them.  Lankford is OK - Gilkey
 is vastly over-rated, but at least they got rid of Galarraga.  If they bring up Allan 
Watson and Dmitri Young, they could move out of the cellar, but I don't see that 
happening.

=================
A.L. East

1) Baltimore - They contended all season long, and they're back for more.  Just 
getting rid of Billy Ripken improved them; actually replacing him with someone
 with a pulse (Harold Reynolds) will help as well.  Put Chito Martinez in right, 
and let him play there. Brady will have a letdown in his stats, but they've got lots 
of options, and good bench strength.  Sam Horn or Randy Milligan, Luis 
Mercedes, and more, they can't go wrong. Arthur Rhodes will have a solid year, 
and Big Ben McDonald will finally have a good season.  Mussina is for real; 
Sutcliffe will be a mediocre #4 starter, but when you look at his equivalent on the 
Blue Jays (named Morris or Stewart), and realize that they are #2 and #3 starters,
 you see why the Orioles are solid.  And Craig Lefferts might be back.  Even 
Johnny Oates' dumb lineups  won't stop them.

2) New York - Hey, I hate Steinbrenner as much as the next guy, but the Yankees 
have a solid team.  Nokes/Stanley behind the plate, O'Neill/G. Williams in right 
are the platoons; right now, Tartabull in left, Bernie "I'm going to have to run to 
left a lot" Williams in center, Maas at DH...Boggs at third, they have an average 
hitting squad, maybe a little better than average.  Maas should be at first, with 
Tartabull DHing, but Don isn't going anywhere; if they just kept a wax dummy 
of Mattingly in the clubhouse, no one would know the difference, and they 
would both walk the same amount.  But they have the best starting pitching in 
the American League, and Wickman and Militello are going to excel.  As long as 
they don't sign Darling, they'll be solid there.
And with Hitchcock coming up soon, they have no shortage of arms.

3) Toronto - The Roger Maynard pick.  Toronto has the most players on winning 
World Series teams.  They also have a pitching staff that's crumbling.  Will 
Guzman repeat his solid performance?  I think so.  Will Ward replace Henke?  I 
think so.  But their #2 pitcher (Morris) should be a #4, their #3 (Stewart) should 
be a #5, Stottlemeyer and Hentgen don't set my world on fire, and who will 
replace Ward?  Eichorn?  Homey, I don't think so.  I'd pick them higher if they 
put Delgado behind the plate, Domingo Martinez at third (where the loss of 
Gruber will help them), and DeLaRosa and Bell in the outfield. Alomar and 
Olerud will improve, but it won't be enough.  Molitor is a good pickup, however.  
And Gaston is NOT a good manager.  See, I'm a dork.

4-7) Who cares?  Well, Cleveland won't have the sense to promote their rookies, 
the young outfielders and pitchers they have who can tear up the world...or Jose 
Hernandez, to replace the Fermin/Lewis mess at shortstop.  Detroit won't go 
anywhere since they don't have any superstars other than Fryman and Fielder, 
and a bunch of middling characters other than that (and Whitaker).  Milwaukee 
will take a tumble, since they lost Molitor, and Bosio, and maybe more.  Pat 
Listach will fall to a 230 average.  They can run all day long, but they won't steal 
first base.  And Boston?  They could finish 4th.  Maybe.  But does anyone 
seriously think Lou Gorman is good anymore?  They haven't
substantially improved over last year, when they finished in last place. 
Remember, you need to field nine DIFFERENT positions, not nine players who
 play the SAME position.


More later.- bob gaj
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball