From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1992 08:12:12 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                29 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 364, 12/29/92
10.7 FLUX=125.1  90-AVG=139        SSN=110      BKI=5655 4432  BAI=037
BGND-XRAY=B2.8     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=5565 5533  PAI=042
  BOU-DEV=079,121,106,081,046,066,026,015   DEV-AVG=067 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.6   @ 1721UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.5   @ 0331UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.4
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2010UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0910UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1125UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55426NT @ 0116UT   BOUTF-MIN=55386NT @ 1715UT  BOUTF-AVG=55401NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+108NT@ 2040UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-031NT@ 1139UT  G7-AVG=+052,+043,+009
GOES6-MAX=N:+138NT@ 0851UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-038NT@ 0124UT  G6-AVG=+073,+003,+052
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,115;SESC:120,120,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3334 4333 2212 3111  27DAY-AP=009,012   27DAY-KP=3333 2221 2423 3322
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7376 (N15W63) produced all
       of today's occasional small flare activity. This group has
       shown notable growth over the last 24 hours and displays fairly
       bright plage. Region 7381 (N04W25), the largest group on the
       disk, showed slight decay today and was stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was at active to storm levels for the past
       24 hours. Yesterday's disturbance developed into a minor storm
       at mid-latitudes. High latitudes ranged from minor to severe
       storm levels. Activity appeared to be declining since about
       29/1800Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active tomorrow due to persistence of the
       current activity. Conditions should subside gradually to un-
       settled beginning on day two and should be at predominantly
       unsettled levels by the third day.

            Event probabilities 30 dec-01 jan

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 dec-01 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/10
                        Minor Storm           20/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/10
                        Minor Storm           25/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

            HF propagation conditions became moderately to strongly
       degraded, most notably over the high and polar latitudes where
       auroral absorption and related anomalies resulted in disturbed
       ionospheric conditions.  Minor improvements were reported late
       in the day as the geomagnetic storming ended.  Conditions are
       expected to continue improving gradually over the next 24 to 48
       hours, returning to near-normal by about 01 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7374  S10W73  004  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7376  N15W63  354  0120 DAO  08  009 BETA
7378  N10W51  342  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7379  S11W24  315  0060 CAO  05  007 BETA
7381  N04W25  316  0210 DSO  10  018 BETA
7383  S05W28  319  0010 CRO  05  003 BETA
7385  S23W70  001  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7372  S12W89  020                    PLAGE
7382  S18W03  294                    PLAGE
7384  N02W53  344                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 DECEMBER TO 01 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7362 S06   176
7360 S19   164


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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