From: gutz@cc49.crl.aecl.ca
Subject: Re: MS ready to release 32-bit Word & Excel?!?! Read on...
Organization: AECL-Research
Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1992 14:16:21 GMT


In article <1992Oct01.185753.6638@microsoft.com> philipla@microsoft.com (Phil Lafornara) writes:
>In article <1992Sep30.150509.25843@cu23.crl.aecl.ca> gutz@cc49.aecl.crl.ca writes:
>>In article <1992Sep29.175707.4137@microsoft.com> philipla@microsoft.com (Phil Lafornara) writes:
>>>In article <1992Sep28.175412.9513@cu23.crl.aecl.ca> gutz@cc49.crl.aecl.ca writes:
>>>>
>>>>  If you think 2-3 million people
>>>>constitutes a few special intrest groups, then you have to be brain-dead.
>>>
>>>     Even the most hardened OS/2 zealots aren't claiming 3 million
>>>users - most aren't even claiming 2 million.  Can you provide a 
>>>source for these statistics.
>>
>>By the OS/2 2.0 celebrates it's first anniversary, IBM predicts 2+ million
>>units shipped.
>
>     IBM could predict 4 million - that doesn't change the current
>facts.

Agreed, IBM, like Microsoft, can predict that cows will fall from the sky
on Tuesday.  But the fact remains that OS/2 is selling - and probably better
than MS could have guessed.  Niether you nor I can guess what Bill Gates
is thinking, but if I were in his position I would be concerned,and I would
tend to think in worst case terms and believe IBM.

>
>
>>>>If you, and/or MS think I'm going to use a Windows app under OS/2 when
>>>>there is a native OS/2 app, you will surely miss the boat.
>>>
>>>     There isn't a native OS/2 app.  That's the point.
>>
>>There sure is, but it's not written by MS.  Describe 3.0 (and soon
>>4.0) are excellent products.  AMI-pro is also due shortly.
>
>     OK - we were using different definitions.  I thought you were
>referring to a specific app, while you were apparently talking
>about a set of applications.

I don't think we are using different definitions.  I want to use OS/2 and
I need a word processor.  I really don;t care if it's Word or something else.
If I learned Word I can take a bit of time to learn something else.
>
>>>     I can't make any kind of official statement here, but no one that
>>>I know within Microsoft is working on OS/2 apps, with the possible
>>>exception of Lan Manager.
>>>
>>
>>That's the official word anyway.  Would MS admit that they are working on
>>OS/2 apps, when they are going to try flogging a different OS sometime
>>in the near/distant? future?  I don't think would admit any OS/2 app
>>work, since this would certainly affect sales of NT whenever it arrives.
>
>     Hmm... A couple of thoughts.  If Microsoft were indeed developing
>OS/2 apps, it would be in the company's best interest to make sure
>that OS/2 users knew that these apps were coming - otherwise they
>might go out and purchase a competitor's product.  True?

No not true - in fact complete garbage.  If I had just spent millions on my
new OS, which although superior in many ways to OS/2, I would still need
to get a foot hold in the market.  The easiest way to do that is to make
my OS run my apps, and not produce my apps for OS/2.

>     I'm not certain that OS/2 apps by Microsoft would really hurt
>Windows NT sales, though.  Possible but not clear yet.  It would
>provide a mixed message, though - "the future of OS's is Windows NT,
>but here's some OS/2 apps to tide you over."
>
I definitely agree here.  The industry would get a mixed message, which
could cause some serious financial instability at MS.  And that's what it's
all about - MONEY.  If MS can some cause OS/2 to fail, there is no need to
any kind of message to the industry, because there will only be NT.

>
>>>     The potential is not clear yet.  If and when it becomes apparent
>>>that OS/2 2.0 will be around for a while, with substantial user base,
>>>I would expect some management person to make a decision on whether
>>>or not to produce apps for it.  At present, though, OS/2's future is
>>>far from clear.
>>>
>>
>>Do you honestly think OS/2 is going to fail?  Are you so sure of NT's
>>success?
>
>      I think OS/2 may fail.  I think Windows NT may succeed.  At
>this time I'm not willing to make a more definite statement.

That's exactly what you are paid to think, and that's no fault of yours.
But I do remeber Bill Gates saying that OS/2 would be the OS of the future
back when MS controlled it.  MS has a pathetic track record when it comes
to envisioning the future - The key MS's success is that they magically end
up in the right place at the right time - but how long will thier luck
continue??  You can tell people the NT is the greatest, but when it boils
down, the consumer will do whatever he wants, and niether IBM nor MS will
be able to control it.


Steven Gutz
AECL Research
Chalk River Laboratories
Chalk River Ontario
Canada K0J 1J0
GUTZ@CC49.CRL.AECL.CA