From: philg@bozo.uucp (Phil Geller)
Newsgroups: sci.environment
Subject: Re: Gallup Poll on Global Warming
Date: 10 Sep 92 05:40:43 GMT
Organization: Network Equipment Technologies


I finally decided to go to the "horse's mouth" on this 
question.  Harry Cotugno, a V.P. at The Gallup Organization, 
was kind enough to send me the following explanation.  (BTW 
he said they've gotten many call's since George Will wrote 
that column.)


From Harry Cotugno:
	The statement,  "... of those scientists actively 
involved in global climate research, 53 per cent do not 
believe that global warming has occurred ..."  made by Ronald 
Bailey in the _National_Review_ and cited by George Will in 
the _Washington_Post_ is based on a subset of 400 scientists 
interviewed, those who report they are "directly involved in 
research in ... global climate science"  (a total of 152 
scientists).  The 53% is based on the combined response to 
two questions:  "Do you think that global average 
temperatures have increased during the past 100 years?" (yes 
or no); if the respondent answered "yes" then, "In your 
opinion is the warming measured over the last 100 years 
within the range of natural, not human-induced fluctuation?"  
(yes or no)

	The 53% is based on those who said "no" to the first 
question, i.e., did not believe average temperatures have 
increased during the past 100 years (16% gave this response), 
or who said "yes" to the first question and "yes" to the 
second, i.e., believe temperatures have increased but that 
the increase is within the range of natural fluctuation (37% 
gave this response).

	The statement made in the _National_Review_ article may 
lead the reader to believe that scientists don't believe 
global warming is occurring.  A more appropriate 
interpretation of the above is to say a majority of 
scientists involved in global climate research believe 
average global temperatures have increased over the past 100 
years but few attribute the increase over this time span to 
human activity.  This interpretation while based on the 
subgroup of the population surveyed, is essentially the same 
as the points made on pages one and three of the CSTM press 
release based on all scientists and not quite the same same 
as saying, "53% do not believe that global warming has 
occurred ..."

	Furthermore to have a full understanding of scientists' 
views on global warming it is important to consider their 
response to the two question following those quoted above, 
i.e., "in your opinion is human-induced greenhouse warming 
now occurring?"  (If the answer was "yes" respondents were 
asked):  "Do you think that currently available scientific 
evidence substantiates its occurrence?"

	Based on the above questions, 67% of those scientists 
directly involved in global climate research say human-
induced greenhouse warming is now occurring and 47% of the 
total (70% of those saying "yes" to the first question) 
believe scientific evidence substantiates its occurrence.

	With respect to the overall survey findings, it can be 
said that many scientists do not believe any warming trend 
over the past 100 years can be explained as resulting from 
human activity.  But most scientists involved in research in 
this area do believe human-induced global warming is 
occurring now.
--- end of letter from Gallup -----

CSTM in the above letter refers to the Center for Science, 
Technology & Media, in Washington D.C. who commissioned 
Gallup to do the study.  CSTM is a nonprofit organization 
devoted to clarifying the dialogue between scientists and 
engineers, and the general public.  (Rather ironic 
considering the twisted way their research is being used in 
this political year.)

The study was commissioned in October and November, 1991.  
Scientists from the American Meteorological Society and the 
American Geophysical Union were surveyed.  The press release 
was dated 2/13/92.  The contact  at CSTM is Regina Lapierre, 
(301) 728-9602, fax: (301) 718-7806.  There is an additional 
15 pages of information, which I assume they will provide if 
you call.

I'd have to conclude that neither George Will or Albert Gore 
were entirely "intellectually honest", if I might recycle 
that phrase which was used earlier in this discussion.  Both 
are using the information that supports their beliefs, rather 
than taking the time to present a totally balanced discussion 
of a very complex issue.  My own biases are with Gore, so I 
suppose I'm believing what I want to.  I do find, in 
rereading his presentation, that he gives the opposing views 
at least a token hearing.  Will is only out to destroy Gore.  
I'll get my intellectual honesty somewhere else.
-- 
Phil Geller				Email: philg@net.com
Network Equipment Technologies 		Phone: (415) 780-4363
800 Saginaw Drive 			Fax:   (415) 780-5001
Redwood City, CA 94063 
Newsgroups: sci.environment,sci.geo.geology,comp.infosystems.gis