From: 00rdharringt@leo.bsuvc.bsu.edu (Rob Harrington)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc
Subject: The "Real" Reason the Republican Lost...
Date: 20 Nov 92 00:02:37 GMT
Organization: Ball State University

Too many of 'them'; not enough of 'us'

(by Stuart Hoffman of Merion Station, Pa., a self described "world class
statistician," offers his explanation of the presidential election:)

	Today, political types are popping the hood, trying to figure out
why people voted the way they did.  Ignore them!  It's really simple.  In
his enthusiasm to run a divisive campaign, President Bush went too far.  My
extensive statistical analysis conclusively demonstrates that he attacked
so many of "them" that there were too few of "us" left to vote for him.
Table 1 enumerates the voters that the GOP pushed into the "them" column
during the campaign:

Table 1
People the Republicans Bashed

Them (and basis of estimate)				Potential Voters
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residents of Arkansas (US Census)			       2,351,000
Members of Congress (10th grade history teacher)        	     535
Lawyers (American Bar Association members)		         741,000
Gays and lesbians (Kinsey Report)			      18,415,700
The press (census)						 253,000
Draft Dodgers ("Woodstock" crowd + Dan Quayle)			 400,001
Bozos (Clowns of America Int'l members)				   5,400
Moscow Visitors, 1969 (Clinton Campaign)			  50,000
Single Parents (census)					      13,774,000
Lobbyists (Am. League of Lobbyists)				     450
Non-Christians (census)					     113,164,000
People with AIDS (Geo. Washington University)			  77,994
Ozone persons (Sierra Club members)				 650,000
Elvis fans (US Postal Service)				       1,000,000
Nutty Pollsters (Market Research Assn.)				   2,300
Liberals (ACLU card-carriers)					 375,000
Murphy Brown viewers (A.C. Nielsen)			      44,000,000
Cultural Elite (Motion Picture Academy)				   5,210
Pot Smokers (members of NORML)					  80,000
Public school employees (census)			       2,773,000
Chicken farmers (American Poultry Assn)				   3,000
Sunday TV talking heads (includes NFL Today)			     150
Jimmy Carter voters (America Votes)			      40,831,000
Bush's economic advisers (Resumes R Us)				       3
Working spouses (census)				      58,556,000
Mario Cuomo & Hillary Clinton (personal count)			       2
People without 'G-O-D' in their platform (Dem. Conv.)		   4,928
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total							     297,513,673

	Note:  Total exceeds the population of US adults due to double-
counting (e.g.  members of Congress who smoke pot and people who sent in
multiple Elvis postcards).

	In fairness, Bush did restrain himself from attacking everyone.  Table
2 lists the "us" groups the GOP did not attack, assuring him of an enthusiastic
core:

Table 2
People the Republicans never bashed

Us (and basis of estimate)				Potential Voters
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
People who like guns (NRA membership)			       2,524,000
Rich people (census, over $50,000 income)		      12,074,000
Less the Perots (Forbes 500)					      -8
Osprey builders (Boeing Corp.)					   5,000
James Baker (various federal agencies)   			       1
Jim Bakker (US Bureau of Prisons)				       1
Sister Soujah/ Willie Horton (Believe It or Not)		       2
Up with People (common knowledge)				     220
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total							      14,603,216

	Note:  Total may be inaccurate when Up With People is armed.

	The conclusion is apparent:  The Republican Party could have won if
only it had focused its attack on fewer enemies.  GOP leaders can still
achieve their implied goal of enthic cleansing provided they know where to stop.
	As they demonstrated so decisively in 1988, negative campaigning does
indeed work.  But unless they want to want to continue giving away the White
House to candidates advocating inclusion, they must learn to bash fewer 
minorities.

-- 
/---------------------------------------v-------------------------------------\
|  Rob Harrington                       |              Ball State University  |
|  Department of History                |               Muncie, Indiana, USA  |
|  Vax--00RDHARRINGT@leo.bsuvc.bsu.edu  |       Unix--herring@bsu-cs.bsu.edu  |
>---------------------------------------^-------------------------------------<
|                                Clinton/Gore '92                             |
|                  Ball State University - University Democrats               |
|                Not a spokesperson - REPEAT - Not a spokesperson             |
\-----------------------------------------------------------------------------/
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