From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1992 04:07:04 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               15 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 289, 10/15/92
10.7 FLUX=098.4  90-AVG=117        SSN=069      BKI=5435 3334  BAI=026
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=*.*E***  FLU10=9.0E+03  PKI=5545 4334  PAI=031
  BOU-DEV=000,064,038,085,030,025,033,052   DEV-AVG=040 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.4   @ 2129UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 1032UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1315UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1010UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0910UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 1255UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55435NT @ 0350UT   BOUTF-MIN=55389NT @ 1628UT  BOUTF-AVG=55413NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1749UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-011NT@ 0246UT  G7-AVG=+075,+040,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1749UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-026NT@ 1630UT  G6-AVG=+084,-013,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,100;SESC:095,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3334 2111 1113 2111  27DAY-AP=026,011   27DAY-KP=4545 4333 3323 3232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became very low today.  The largest x-ray event was a
weak class B6.4 flare at 21:29 UT.  X-rays were otherwise fairly stable and
dormant.

     Two filaments disappeared today.  The first disappeared near S01E25
sometime before 13:28 UT and measured 5 degrees in length.  The second was
approximately 17 degrees in extent and disappeared near N33W50 between 11:45
UT and 13:28 UT.  This latter event may have been associated with a very weak
x-ray enhancement, but lacked radio activity.

     New Region 7313 (S04E64) was numbered today.

     Solar activity should continue very low to low.  No significant activity
is expected from any of the regions presently visible.

     The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels today.  Minor
storming was observed over most regions early in the UT day and continued
until about 15:00 UT.  Periods of major storming were reported over some high
latitude stations.  Conditions subsided somewhat after 15:00 UT.  The source
of this disturbance is thought to be related to a coronal hole.  The field
should continue mostly unsettled to active on 16 October with periods of
minor substorming possible during the local night sectors.  Recurrence
suggests another enhancement may follow on 17 or 18 October, although there
is no solid evidence to support this hypothesis at this time.

     HF propagation conditions were degraded for much of the day over the
high and polar latitude paths.  Geomagnetic storm activity over these regions
produced moderate levels of signal degradation.  Middle and low latitudes
observed near-normal to slightly below normal propagation.  All regions
showed some improvement after 15:00 UT.  The ionosphere is expected to remain
unstable over the next 72 hours.  High and polar latitude isolated substorm
activity should continue to produce periods of degraded propagation through
these paths.  Middle and low latitude paths should be more stable, with good
to fair propagation dominating.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7306  S08W86  285  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7310  N07E27  172  0040 CSO  07  009 BETA
7311  S18E30  169  0040 CSO  06  006 BETA
7312  N21E54  145  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7313  S04E64  135  0010 BXO  04  002 BETA
7307  S18W40  239                    PLAGE
7308  N09W72  271                    PLAGE
7309  S16W51  250                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 OCTOBER TO 18 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7289 S10   104
7293 S07   069


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
15/B1145             A1328       N33W50   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
61   N44E05 N33W11 N43W30 N45W27  214  ISO   POS   015 10830A
62   N38E24 N25E03 N25E03 N38E24  195  ISO   POS   002 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S28 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.

**  End of Daily Report  **
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