HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
Organization: Central Michigan University
Date: Sunday, 24 Jan 1993 17:02:12 EST
From: <34MD4AK@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: predictions
Distribution: world

I read with interest your prediction that Microsoft will go up.
I dissagree and have shorted the stock. In fact I am looking to
short some more if it does go up in the near future. My speculation
is that the FTC ruling will go against Microsoft and will impact
the market. I think they are going to make a statement on Feb 5th.
So until that time I have been thinking about shorting some more.

PLEASE realize this is all speculation and don't take my advice!
It is just something I thought I might try. What the heck I am
tired of giving all my money to my ex-wife and the horses. :-)

What do you think?

Rick LaFay               rlafay on BIX           ACIS Computers
(517) 773-6490                                   (616) 587-8827
Mt. Pleasant Mich.                               Mancelona, Mich.
During the week.                                 On Weekends.
From: aa536@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Alayne M. Whaley)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Quicken sources
Date: 23 Jan 1993 14:49:33 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: aa536@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Alayne M. Whaley)
NNTP-Posting-Host: thor.ins.cwru.edu


I bought my copy at Babbage's for $37.  The windows version was around $30.

That's all folks!
-- 
Alayne M. Whaley            ! "She's a rare thing, a treasure most men seek but
aa536@cleveland.freenet.edu !  seldom find.  A pricless work of art...that only
-----------------------------  grows more valuable with time."
                                                   Shenandoah - She's a Natural
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: steve@cucbs.chem.columbia.edu (Steve Stuart)
Subject: Re: Cyclical patterns in DJIA 1952-1980
Organization: Center for Biomolecular Simulation, Department of Chemistry,
	Columbia University
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1993 20:59:59 GMT

In article <Jan25.052613.33137@yuma.ACNS.ColoState.EDU> wendt@CS.ColoState.EDU (alan l wendt) writes:

>This is the output of a program that I wrote to evaluate the average
>return of the DJIA as related to various calendar periods.  It's based
>on the data from 1952-1980.  It does not include dividends.  It assumes
>that you bought the average at the closing price the day before the
>period began and sold at the closing price the day the period ended
>and paid no commisions.  The performance figure is the amount that
>you would have if you started in 1952 with  $1.00

[ lots of data deleted ]

>The following two series evaluate 9 and 10 day cycles.  They
>are intended to provide a check on the reliability of the other numbers.
>I don't know how to do statistical tests for significant differences
>between geometric means.

[ lots more data deleted ]

Interesting, but several comments jump to mind:

1) I'm not sure your 9- and 10-day cycle test for significance means
anything.  These cycles have you invested for 700 or 800 days over the
28-year period.  The day-of-week test has you invested for 1400 days,
and the day-of-month tests are 200 or 300 days.  The means and
variances for being invested different amounts of times should be
different.

2) I'm no statistics whiz, but it seems to me you could do a t-test on
the *logs* of the numbers you get.  This would be a sum of the logs of
the individual day gains, and the usual t-test formulas would hold.
Just be careful to compare 5-day numbers to 5-day numbers and not
9-day numbers.

3) If you multiply the gains in any given table together, you get
something like 3.572, which means $1.00 invested in 1952 would have
netted you $3.57 by 1980.  Does this mean the DJIA just tripled in 28
years?  That works out to be under 5% a year.  This figure may very
well be right - it just surprised me and I have nothing handy to
check them with.  (Of course dividends weren't included, and they
might make a noticeable difference)


-- 
-Steve

echo "a'rfg cnf Crpv | har" | tr '[a-m][n-z] ' '[n-z][a-m]\012' | sort | tr "\012" " " ; echo " "
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: hari@uncc.edu (Yogeshwar Hari)
Subject: Re: The Bapcha Picks.....
Reply-To: hari@uncc.edu
Organization: University of NC at Charlotte
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1993 01:00:17 GMT

I have my money on the following:

	Regal Communications   		rcom
	Wholesome and Hearty Foods	whfi
	Las Vegas Discount Gold		lvdg
	
and I am looking at Pacesetter Farms OSTR.  Any info?

Thanks.

Yog.		yhari@mosaic.uncc.edu
From: hhh@basil.lcs.mit.edu (Henry Houh)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: YOUR stock picks
Date: 26 Jan 93 06:35:57 GMT
	<1993Jan25.235616.26980@tellab5.tellabs.com> <C1FzMM.CBn@cs.uiuc.edu>
Organization: /home/basil/hhh/.organization


One I've been watching:

Parametric Technology Corp.  (OTC - PMTC)

A Mechanical CAD company which has had strong growth since they were
listed.  They sold a lot of seats last year, including a large number
to Caterpillar.  Quarterly revenues the past few quarters have been
over twice the previous year ago quarter, and they are experiencing
growing sales in Europe and are setting up sales forces in Japan.

They received several negative write ups in Barron's, one most
recently last December, which probably contributed to the stock's
decline from ~52 to ~46 (another contributing factor could have been
cashing in on a lot of options in order to beat the upper tax bracket
hike).  The other article was published a long time ago.  In March 92,
it was trading around 28, and it closed 1/25/93 at 61 (60 3/4-61).  In
between those times, PTC announced several large sales (Caterpillar
was one, JPL was another, and I think, Sandia).  It trades at a very
high P/E (60-70's).

Anyone know what might be in store for this year?
Prime/Computervision can focus on CAD now, and who knows about IBM.
PTC is still a small company and can react pretty quickly.

I've never seen this listed on any of the stock listings from
Clarinet, although it does seem like it should be listed there as a
technology stock.
From: NU104043@NDSUVM1.BITNET
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Question: Is the market predictable?
Date: 27 Jan 93 20:44:31 GMT
 <86ouXB2w165w@gilligan.tsoft.net>
Organization: North Dakota Higher Education Computer Network

Yes, the market can be predictble, given that you

   - know closely what the specialist or the market maker is doing
   - keep an outlook for economic conditions for the long run

 Just my $ 0.02 worth
 Mike
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: douthit@convex.com (Ronnie Douthit)
Subject: Re: Is there a FAQ?
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1993 23:09:53 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: Engineering, CONVEX Computer Corp., Richardson, Tx., USA
X-Disclaimer: This message was written by a user at CONVEX Computer
              Corp. The opinions expressed are those of the user and
              not necessarily those of CONVEX.

bair@cbnewsb.cb.att.com (matthew.a.bair) writes:


>I was wondering if there is a FAQ available for this news group?

The answer to this question is in the FAQ :^)

There is one posted in news.answers.
From: shag@aero.org (Robert M. Unverzagt)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Any thoughts on Bristol-Myers?
Date: 21 Jan 1993 16:03:50 GMT
Organization: Organization?  You must be kidding.
Distribution: usa
NNTP-Posting-Host: aerospace.aero.org

In article <C16823.6nw@news.cso.uiuc.edu> jhsu@dcl-nxt54.cso.uiuc.edu (Jason Hsu) writes:
> In article <29951@oasys.dt.navy.mil> wade@oasys.dt.navy.mil (Michael Wade)  
> writes:
> > 
> > Our investment club is considering purchasing Bristol-Myers Squibb  
> (BMY).
> > However, this stock has recently been pummeled by the hysteria over
> > Clinton's proposed health care reform.  The stock is about 64 now.
> 
> I believe BMY is overvalued (though not a short sale candidate).   

I'd think not, with a P/E in the 15 neighborhood.  What other
indicators (besides price/book below) show it to be overvalued?

> According to Value Line, the book value of BMY is only about $16/share (I  
> forget the exact figure).  At $64, the price/book value ratio is a  
> broiling-hot 4, compared with the S&P's historical average of 1.8.

That's great, but how does it compare to the price/book of the
drug industry?

>                                                                      I  
> believe that a bear market, earnings growth that slows down, or earnings  
> reports that fall a few pennies short of expectations will cause BMY to  
> crash.

C'mon -- a price of $64 and a P/E of 15 indicate yearly earnings
of, oh, $4.62.  Falling $0.03 short is less than 1% of that;  it's
not like the "earnings surprise" would be $0.65 vs $0.68 with a
sporty P/E.

>         However, if BMY crashes and has a price/book ratio of 2/3 or less  
> (bitter cold), the stock would be a screaming buy because of the earnings  
> and dividend growth.

AGREED!  However, in spite of the "black clouds" over it, I
think BMY is a pretty good choice anyway.  I bought some at about
$64 a while ago, so while it's disheartening to see it slip
from $68ish to $62ish in a few days, I'm not too bent out of
shape.

Shag

-- 
       Rob Unverzagt        |   Last call for alcohol.
  shag@aerospace.aero.org   |   Last call for freedom of speech.
unverzagt@courier2.aero.org |                            - Jello Biafra

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: andy@federation.gatech.edu (Andy Register)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Quicken sources
Date: 21 Jan 93 16:08:38 GMT
Organization: CERL-EE, Georgia Institue of Technology

In article <4020014@hplvec.LVLD.HP.COM> cola@hplvec.LVLD.HP.COM (Ken Colasuonno) writes:
>
>Anybody know of cheap places to purchase Quicken (for DOS)?  I found
>one source (EggHead software 1-800-egghead) that sells it for $40.  
>
>Any cheaper than that?

I saw it at Office Depot a couple of weeks ago in the $10 range.  

Intuit seems to have periodic specials at different stores.  I would
not pay $40 for it but hold off a while and check around.

Toodles
Andy

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: dman@netcom.com (Dallman Ross)
Subject: Re: Quicken vs. Manage your Money
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest) 
X-Newsreader: TIN [version 1.1 PL8]
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 1993 03:24:06 GMT

pvonk@scott.skidmore.edu (Pierre VonKaenel) writes:

 >I used to use MYM many years ago (over a two year period).  I dutifuly
 >entered my checks, credit card purchases, withdrawals from
 >checking/savings, mortgage, etc.  It took a lot of time, *a lot of
 >time*, and after two years I sat back and considered what it all
 >meant.  I could get nice charts of my income vs. expenditures,
 >categories where I spend my money, personal wealth - and I finally
 >realized, so what.  I didn't change my spending habits - I only know
 >what they were.  Had these incredible lists of credit card
 >expenditures, but what did that mean to me?  I do recall once or twice
 >running a search on the lists to find a purchase.  But overall, I came
 >to the conclusion that this was all a waste of time.
 >
 >Any others come to the same conclusions?

No, I have always had horrible trouble with my taxes.  Last year I got
Money Counts, which is similar to these other programs.  I am now ready
to do my 1992 taxes, and for the first time in 10 years I will do them
early and without staying up all night in agony.

--
 __D_a l_l m a_n  _ R o_s s _ |dman@netcom.com  /or/  |"You sound like a man|
 l  \\ l\\   /l  /\\  l\\   l |dross@well.sf.ca.us    |with a rubber nose." |
 l   >)l \\ /ll /  \\ l \\  l |vox/fax: 1.510.645.1883| -- One-Lung Bill    |
 l  // l  \X ll/--- \\l  \\ l |350 Perkins St., #108  |     Remmer (deceased)
_l//______________________\\l_|Oakland,_CA__94610-3422|_____________________|_
From: tony@daops6.scg.hac.com (Tony Wong)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: YOUR stock picks
Date: 26 Jan 93 18:03:51 GMT
Reply-To: ktwong@igate1.hac.com (Anthony Wong)
Organization: Hughes Aircraft Co., Tucson, AZ


Since we are on the subject of stock picks, I was wondering if anyone
out there is watching Blockbuster Entertainment Corp. (BV - NYSE).  
They have had good growth in earnings for the past several years and
seem to be expanding at a decent rate.  The P/E ratio is reasonable 
for the entertainment industry (around 30) and Value Line has just 
added BV to their most timely stocks list.  I also like the Blockbuster
Video stores very much and have seen them build two new stores in the
past two months.

I already bought some shares and would like to know how people
feel about BV and its future price potential.  I think Value Line
predicts a 40% to 165% increase in price in the next 2 to 5 years.


Anthony Wong

-- 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anthony K.T. Wong, Hughes Missile Systems Company, ktwong@igate1.hac.com  |  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Opinions expressed are mine, not my employers')
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: stgprao@st.unocal.COM (Richard Ottolini)
Subject: Re: REQUEST: Rate of return in a mutual fund
Organization: Unocal Corporation
Distribution: na
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1993 01:34:34 GMT

In article <KLUG.93Jan22084644@klug.Software.Mitel.COM> klug@Software.Mitel.COM (Peter Klug) writes:
>
>Could someone explain how to calculate the rate of return on a mutual
>fund investment?

The fund usally does for you in the yearly propsectus they send out.
You can these free for any fund by calling them up.

The return is the difference between the Net Average Value plus any distributions and
and earlier NAV.  Divide this by the time period and scale it to a year long period.
Many newspapers print this for all funds near the first of January.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: lib@cbnews.cb.att.com (Lib)
Subject: Re: Weekly IBM Self-affirmation
Organization: AT&T
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 18:10:25 GMT

In article <Jan.21.09.06.39.1993.9534@remus.rutgers.edu> clong@remus.rutgers.edu (Chris Long) writes:
>
>I'm good enough, and I'm smart enough, and I can't be wrong that
>IBM will reach 55 later this year.

  
I am put in mind of the person who predicted that gold would indeed
reach $3000 an ounce but that we might be alive to see it.
     
By the by. Anybody know what happened to the Aden sisters, the twins
that used to be semi-famous as gurus of gold prices?

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: suhre@meltami.dsd.trw.com (Maurice E. Suhre)
Subject: Re: Financial Information Question
Organization: TRW, INC.
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1993 00:52:49 GMT

In article <STEVE.93Jan21142549@cucbs.chem.columbia.edu> steve@cucbs.chem.columbia.edu (Steve Stuart) writes:
>How about for the multitude of smaller companies that Value Line
>doesn't cover?  The business library here is pretty good, so I'm sure
>there is a great source just waiting for me to find it...

You might ask the librarian for help.  Or try the card catalog.

There are the S&P reports which are in three separate volumes, NYSE,
AMEX, and NASDAQ/OTC.  Look in these, but they are not as extensive as
the Value Line, but cover more stocks.

I think Value Line might have an "emerging situations" or something like
that, but it is less readily available.

-- 
Maurice Suhre
suhre@trwrb.dsd.trw.com
From: RROXBY@MAINE.MAINE.EDU (Robert Roxby)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Market Index Quotes?
Date: 22 Jan 93 04:11:50 GMT
Organization: University of Maine System

Do any of the on line quote services (GEnie, etc) give
market index quotes?
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: ask@cbnews.cb.att.com (Arthur S. Kamlet)
Subject: Re: Covered Calls:  Less Risk - High Returns.
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories,  Columbus, Ohio
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 22:01:05 GMT

In article <1993Jan21.213932.28063@mobil.com> etpeters@dal.mobil.com (E. T. Peterson(Eric)) writes:
>In article <1993Jan21.180251.28864@odin.corp.sgi.com>, tjordan@sgi.com (Ted Jordan) writes:
> 
>|> >|> A friend told me about the covered calls.  This looks like very low
>|> >|> risk but good return to me.
>
>|> Is there the same kind of thing for PUTS?  (Is there such a thing; rather
>|> is it called a "covered put", and do you have an example of this scenario?
>
>Yes.
>
>When you sell a stock short, you could also sell a put on that stock.
>This is analogous to covered call writing on a long position.
>
>For example, you short a stock at $40 and sell a 35 put at $2.
>
>At the expiration date of the put, if the stock is below $35, you will
>have to buy it for $35, thus covering your short position.
>
>If the stock is above $35, the put expires worthless.
>
>In either case you keep the $2 put premium.
>
>The drawback is if the stock goes way down, say to $20, you still have to
>buy it at $35.

While you make an argument for this being an analogy, it's also true
that the risks are quite opposite.  Covered call writing is probably
the lowest risk of the various combinations we could concoct,
excepting perhaps  several straddle positions.   However writing
puts and shorting stock in combination presents about the highest
of risks.

puts are good for folks who think the price won't fall; so is
shorting the stock itself.  But covered call writing assumes the
price won't rise, while purchase of the stock to cover the call
predicts the stock will rise.   Not quite the same.

Further, while the stock covers the covered call, the shorted stock
must be covered by other collateral and also the shorted put must
be covered by separate collateral.
-- 
Art Kamlet  a_s_kamlet@att.com  AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: pvonk@scott.skidmore.edu (Pierre VonKaenel)
Subject: Re: Quicken vs. Manage your Money
Organization: Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs NY, 12866
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1993 20:54:25 GMT

In article <1993Jan22.173752.16323@ee.gatech.edu> austin@eecom.gatech.edu (Mark D. Austin) writes:
>I was wondering if someone could suggest which package would be 
>better for home finances, including tracking my investments,
>check writing etc. 

It appears that posters on Compuserve prefer MYM when it comes to
portfolio management.  If this is an important criterion, then MYM
might well be the best.  Quicken has always had a better reputation
when it comes to overall home finances (tracking savings, checking,
etc).  

I used to use MYM many years ago (over a two year period).  I dutifuly
entered my checks, credit card purchases, withdrawals from
checking/savings, mortgage, etc.  It took a lot of time, *a lot of
time*, and after two years I sat back and considered what it all
meant.  I could get nice charts of my income vs. expenditures,
categories where I spend my money, personal wealth - and I finally
realized, so what.  I didn't change my spending habits - I only know
what they were.  Had these incredible lists of credit card
expenditures, but what did that mean to me?  I do recall once or twice
running a search on the lists to find a purchase.  But overall, I came
to the conclusion that this was all a waste of time.

Any others come to the same conclusions?

-- 
Pierre von Kaenel  |  Math & CS Dept | Skidmore College | pvonk@skidmore.edu
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ads from premier issue of PC Tech Journal (Jul 83): 20MB Hard disk from
QCS - Cost: $2999.   Davong 5 MB int. hard disk... only $1465!
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: billj@b11.ingr.com (Bill Johnson)
Subject: Re: Olde Discount Brokers?
Organization: Intergraph Corp. Huntsville, AL
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 18:31:24 GMT

In article <1993Jan19.181045.25883@newsgate.sps.mot.com>, gossain@valhalla.sps.mot.com (Raj Gossain) writes:
|> Is anyone out there familiar with Olde Discount Brokerage? 
|> They have been advertising heavily in the Phoenix area as a
|> full service, discount brokerage that provides low-cost
|> commissions and analyst reports on companies.  Looks like
|> a great idea, but has anyone else heard of them?  Since Arizona
|> is the land of Charlie Keating, I'm a bit skeptical of some
|> of the financial practices out here :-).
|> 
|> Also, can someone tell me how difficult/expensive it would be
|> to transfer my brokerage account (or only part of it) from Schwab 
|> to Olde, Kennedy Cabot, etc.  In particular, I have some stocks in
|> my Schwab account that I'd like to sell, but at a lower commission
|> that Schwab wants to charge.  Can I transfer my holdings to another
|> brokerage without having to sell these shares?
|> 
|> Thanks much,
|> 
|> --Dhiraj
|> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|> Dhiraj Gossain					Motorola 
|> Semi-Custom Design Technology Group,		2100 E Elliot Road, MS EL510
|> Semiconductor Systems Design Tech. (SSDT),	Tempe, AZ 85284
|> 						Tel: (602) 897-4449
|> Internet: gossain@ssdt-tempe.sps.mot.com	FAX: (602) 897-3518
|> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|> 
|> 

I have been using OLDE Discount for about 6 months.  The office I deal with is in Raleigh, NC.  They
have provided what I would consider "full service" -- sending out analysts and company reports, making
suggestions on stock purchases, providing regular stock updates and prices when you call, calling you
when the stock rises or falls recommending a buy or sell, etc.

Their commission schedule is very reasonable.  They don't have a hard-sell style, and don't recommend
stocks that are outside your interest.

I transferred my Morgan Keegan brokerage account to OLDE by simply filling out a form that OLDE
provided.  OLDE will give you one free stock trade when you transfer your account.  It takes a few
weeks to get all the paperwork done, and the account moved, but it's painless -- no selling of shares
is necessary.

I would personally recommend the guy I use in the Raleigh office -- I have had no dealings with any
other OLDE office or broker, however.

Bill

prices over the phone
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: rs69@cunixb.cc.columbia.edu (Rong Shen)
Subject: education of floor traders
Organization: Columbia University
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1993 00:26:31 GMT

Hi:

	The greatest gift that evolution has given to men is the
ability to question. So, here is the question: What type of education
and work experience does a typical floor traders in NY Stock Exchange
have?

	Any hints are greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Rong
--
rs69@cunixb.cc.columbia.edu
From: rsheftel@eniac.seas.upenn.edu (Ryan Sheftel)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: The Turnaround Letter
Date: 28 Jan 93 04:19:44 GMT
Organization: University of Pennsylvania

I am looking to subscribe to "The Turnaround Letter" edited by George Putnam.
Can anyone provide me with a phone number or address to contact him? How
about a yellow pages for newsleters. Thanks

	Ryan
From: tcbd@cbnews.cb.att.com (tom.c.b.davison)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: NASDAQ brokers: Can they cheat on orders?
Keywords: NASDAQ
Date: 24 Jan 93 15:42:53 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: AT&T

In article <1993Jan23.153309.1854@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU>, rvp2f@Virginia.EDU (Prasad  Polamraju) writes:
> Can a broker on a NASDAQ system cheat on a market/other orders? 
> I have a full  service brokerage
> account with a NASDAQ broker/market maker specializing in stocks
> priced $5 or below. This week he called me to ask my permission to sell a
> stock which has moved up by about 40% on 1000% increased volume. The day
> after he confirmed the sale, the stock moved up by another 40%. Is there 
> a possibility or chance for  cheating by NASDAQ brokers? Any insights and info 

who is the broker?  what was the stock, and when was this? 
maybe someone has some more insight.

they are not allowed to "cheat" - a couple (hibbard brown comes to
mind) are alleged to "cheat".

the circumstances you mention sound like there was something
unusual going on in the stock, but you can't tell from the
limited data you have whether this is a case of a story coming out
on the stock on some national news service (CNBC, WSJ, ...)
touting the stock or other good news, or "cheating".
I would not @based only on what you have said, sounds like your
broker might well have given you good advice - sounds like you should
have made some good $$.  Can't complain that the broker didn't
know what was going to happen the next day.