From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Re: AL Cy Young update (was Re: Clemens update please)
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 07:14:33 GMT

Valentine writes:
>I'd vote for Clemens.  In all of his three no-decisions, he left the
>game with the lead.  With reasonable bullpen support, he would have a
>20-9 record.  With even *average* offensive support, he would have a
>21-7 record or better.  (I don't believe SNWL has all of the bugs
>worked out of it yet, or I would quote that number.)

In Clemens' case, the SNWL record is about 17-7.  That's easily the
best SN record in the AL, and he really doesn't have anybody who's
likely to catch him by year's end -- Appier is within shooting distance,
but he's injured and hasn't been pitching all that well lately.  I'd
certainly vote for Clemens for the Cy.

As for the bugs that haven't been worked out of SNWL, one of them
would be that the scoring distribution I'm using for the AL seems 
to be a little low.  This has the effect of deflating everyone's
record slightly, but the difference really is very slight -- I doubt
that using the correct scoring distribution for the AL would change
Clemens' wins or losses by more than .5 each.  (BTW, does anyone
know where I can get ahold of the year's single-inning scoring
distribution for each league?  I.e., what percentage of innings
are 0-run innings, what percentage are 1-run, etc.?)

Another "bug" (if you want to call it that -- I probably wouldn't),
and one that probably has a far greater effect than the one above,
is that SNWL doesn't reflect the way that starters are used by 
managers.  Most starters, and nearly all staff aces, will be used
in a way that will tend to increase the number of decisions they
get.  They'll be left in in close games, and pulled early in blowouts.
This helps explain why Clemens has only 3 no-decisions this year, and
it helps explain why most of the top starters in the league have
1 or 2 more decisions in their actual W-L record than in their SNW-L
record.  So, given this kind of strategy used by managers, the
21-7 record you suggest Clemens might have in a perfect world could
be about right.  But, you have to remember that, in this perfect 
world, Appier would be about 19-7, Mussina about 18-7, Guzman about
15-5, and McDowell about 19-9.  If SNWL is underestimating Clemens'
wins, it's underestimating everybody's.

(Here's the top few AL starters as of yesterday: )

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Clemens        BOS   16.9   7.3  0.699   18  9   2.62   48.0   4.67
Appier         KCR   15.1   6.6  0.695   15  8   2.55   42.6   4.03
Mussina        BAL   14.4   7.1  0.668   15  5   2.80   36.5   3.54
Guzman,Ju      TOR   11.6   5.2  0.691   14  3   2.54   30.5   3.02
Nagy           CLE   14.4   8.7  0.623   14 10   3.27   29.0   2.75
McDowell       CHI   14.6   9.1  0.615   20  7   3.19   30.0   2.57
Eldred         MIL    6.4   1.1  0.855    8  1   1.26   24.8   2.55
Abbott         CAL   12.2   7.5  0.620    7 13   3.05   26.2   2.27
Navarro        MIL   14.2   9.7  0.595   15 11   3.61   19.1   2.18
Fleming        SEA   13.5   9.2  0.596   15  8   3.70   18.9   2.08

-Michael
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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