From: gavan@ucthpx.uct.ac.za (Gavan Tredoux)
Subject: Re: The ANC and the SACP 
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 92 14:51:04 GMT
Reply-To: trdgav01@ucthpx.uct.ac.za
Organization: Depts Math and Philosophy, UCT
X-Newsreader: Tin 1.1 PL3

msncra01@uctvax.uct.ac.za writes:
: You divide the population into distinct ethnic groups,
: and then announce that they will vote on ethnic grounds. Maybe I'm naive, or my
: analysis simplistic, but I cannot understand why, just because in the past
: whites have always voted for whites, it could not happen that other people are
: willing to vote as individuals. 

Comparative politics. Examine ethnically mixed countries world-wide
and determine the influence of ethnicity on voting patterns. Determine
also the number of countries with operating democratic systems, and 
those with majoritarian systems. This is an active rtesearch field
and the key results are now well-established. Ethnicity is the most 
potent and accurate predictor of political behaviour available. virtually
no ethnically mixed society has an operating democratic system run
on majoritarian lines, and very few have democratic system sat all.
Try the famous study by Alvin Rabushka and Kenneth Shepsle, Liphart's
pioneering work, or Horowitz's excellent _Ethnic Conflict in Divided 
Societies_. There isn't much question that voting here will proceed on 
ethnic lines. If you want local examples, try Zimbabwe and Namibia, each
with overwhelmingly ethnic patterns of voting (in Zimbabwe's case in
the only moderately free election they ever had). You might also peek
at Kenya's recent experiences as they try to liberate the political
system.

: ANC organisation must be understood within historical context, the
: laws forbidding inter-racial political organisation, etc. So it is not
: obviously an ethnic organisation, as you seem to imply.

It is patently an ethnic organization, by history, association, support,
leadership and context. As ethnic as they come. First it's black
(phenotype the ethnic marker), moreover it's Xhosa dominated (you
might care to examine the ethnic composition of the National exec
and ponder why they're weaker in Natal than anywhere else. In fact they're
a Xhosa-led coalition with skewed support, just like any other ethnic
organization. They don't mobilize on the basis of Xhosa ethnicity, but
they're Xhosa by history and association, and that's what is important.
Racially, they have minute white support, and little coloured and Indian.
Willy nilly, they're ethnic prisoners.

: > However, the
: > influence of the SACP in the ANC is far-reaching and well-documented.
: > Looking at the Nat. Exec, rather a lot of the top brass have
: > joint membership. But I'm not running a red scare, although I argue
: > it has to taken into account.
: 
: What do you mean, it has to be taken into account? That communism is inherently
: bad, so we have to beware of it, seek it out and avoid it? I don't understand
: the innuendo here.

No innuendo, it's quite clear: communists are 
to be avoided, they're a miserable bunch, and positively dangerous. 
You don't need a "red scare" to know that, just some basic
history. 

: Agreed about the 'varsities, but Aristotle suggests that a ruler of a polis
: that does not need politics should be a perfectly good man. I'm not suggesting
: Mandela's a perfectly good man, but I am suggesting that his sincerity and good
: will are a vast improvement on anything we've had before in government. 

Personally I rate them in the same league. Much of a muchness.
Remember that Nelson promoted Winnie for 2 years within the ANC,
attempted to cover up for her, tried to shut the Sowetan up, and
hasn't even had a chance to show what he can do with the might
of the state behind him. He's also stupid enough to still maintain
her innocence.

Ps: you set your personal name on the vax using the "set"
command, set profile, or set personal_name or something. Try
help.

------Gavan Tredoux---------------------- 
Dept Mathematics, Dept Philosophy 
University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700