From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1992 19:55:42 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               07 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 281, 10/07/92
10.7 FLUX=136.1  90-AVG=122        SSN=161      BKI=1334 2212  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B6.1     FLU1=7.0E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2344 2212  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=005,032,034,062,010,019,008,012   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=04:014
 XRAY-MAX= M3.1   @ 0507UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.4   @ 1434UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2320UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0115UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= -1.4DB @ 1245UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 1945UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55429NT @ 1347UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 1759UT  BOUTF-AVG=55419NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1938UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-021NT@ 0848UT  G7-AVG=+076,+038,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1938UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-023NT@ 1629UT  G6-AVG=+083,-012,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,130;SESC:135,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/012,020,020
    KFCST=1234 4322 1234 4222  27DAY-AP=090,035   27DAY-KP=5787 5655 6564 4433
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M3.1/1B@0507,S06E33(7306);**MINFLR:M1.0/1N@0759,S07E32;
          **MINFLR:M1.3/1B@1012,S07E30;**MINFLR:M1.1/1N@1504,S07E26;
          **SWEEP:II=3@0501UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became moderate today by virtue of four minor M-class
flares, all from Region 7306 (S08E23).  The strongest flare was a class
M3.1/1B event at 05:07 UT that was associated with a strong Type II sweep
(importance 3) at 05:01 UT.  Minor discrete radio emissions were also
observed during this event.  The flare was quite impulsive in x-rays.

     Region 7306 has grown in both size and magnetic complexity over the last
24 hours.  This beta-gamma group is presently 170 millionths in a DAI optical
configuration and appears capable of producing additional minor M-class
flares together with occasionally frequent mid to high-level C-class events.

     Region 7303 (S13W22) has remained relatively stable in growth and
structure over the last 24 hours.  It continues to possess a small but
definite delta configuration.  This region is also capable of producing
M-class flares.

     Other activity of interest included a filament disappearance near N01E42
between 14:00 UT on 06 October and 11:12 UT on 07 October.  A large Fe XIV
northern polar coronal hole extension has been observed by the National Solar
Observatory's Emission Line Coronal Photometer.  The equatorward boundary of
this northern polar extension lies near N35.  This feature began to rotate
into view around the northeast limb near 06 October.  A southern polar
coronal extension has also been observed over the last week between
approximately S45 and S55.  Over the last 24 hours, the hole has deepened on
the southeast limb and extends down to approximately S40.  The inferred
boundary from Helium 10830A imagery support these observations.  Plots of
these coronal features are available for anonymous FTP from: xi.uleth.ca (IP
number 142.66.3.29) in the directory "pub/solar/Corona" as GIF images.

     No new regions were assigned.

     Solar activity is expected to continue low to moderate.  M-class flares
are possible in Regions 7306 and 7303.  A slight risk continues to exist for
an isolated major flare.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled today.  A few
episodes of active to minor substorming was observed over the high latitude
regions during the local night hours, particularly between 08:00 UT and 13:00
UT.  Conditions are expected to remain mostly unsettled over the next 24
hours.  A small but well placed coronal hole could produce active to minor
storm periods on 09 or 10 October.  Otherwise, nothing significant is
expected at this time.

     HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over all regions.
Some high latitude regions suffered occasional minor signal degradation
between approximately 06:00 UT and 12:00 UT in response to enhanced and
isolated levels of geomagnetic activity.  Activity subsided after 12:00 UT.
MUFs remain enhanced by between 10 and 25 percent.  These conditions are
permitting reliable openings on the higher frequencies.  Reports of unusually
stable transpolar propagation have been received over the last 24 hours.
Conditions are expected to remain normal to above normal for the next 24 to
48 hours.  A return to near-normal propagation is possible on 09 or 10
October if effects from the well placed coronal hole materialize.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7295  N13W80  025  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7298  N17W43  348  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7300  N12W06  311  0040 CSO  07  008 BETA
7301  S16W30  335  0060 DAO  09  013 BETA
7303  S13W22  327  0280 DAI  09  024 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7305  N11E02  303  0130 DAI  08  021 BETA
7306  S08E23  282  0170 DAI  09  023 BETA-GAMMA
7296  N07W79  024                    PLAGE
7299  N13W28  333                    PLAGE
7302  S15W63  008                    PLAGE
7304  N03W47  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 OCTOBER TO 10 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0501 0507 0517 7306  S06E33 M3.1  1B   1600 94     II
 0751 0759 0807 7306  S07E32 M1.0  1N
 1006 1012 1021 7306  S07E30 M1.3  1B
 1456 1504 1507 7306  S07E26 M1.1  1N


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/ 1400           07/1112       N01E42   DSF
07/ 0501              0506       S06E33   RSP    M3.1   16  3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
60   N13E13 N12E11 N19E04 N22E11  091  ISO   POS   000 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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