From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Predictions '93
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1992 00:04:19 GMT

In<1eloovINN6gk@usenet.INS.CWRU.Edu> dxf12@po.CWRU.Edu (Douglas Fowler) writes:

>     It's going to be awfully tough before the free agents are signed, but
>right now my division picks would be:
>     In the A.L. East, it looks pretty sure to be Toronto because noone else is
>likely to be as good, unless the Jays lose at least 2 of Carter, Cone, and
>WInfield, in which case it'll be the Orioles.

The Orioles have a shot.   The Yankees, Tigers, and Red Sox will be bad.
The Indians, not so, but they need more than Nagy.  Losing Armstrong and
Boucher will help, but not enough.  The Brewers are always perplexing, but
I can't see them with the offense or pitching.  Of course, I always say that
about them.

>     In the A.L. West, it'll be either the White Sox or Twins, depending
>on who gets Kirby Puckett.  Any word on where he's inclined to go?

I can't see the Twins.  If they re-sign Puckett *and* Smiley, they still
have no real third baseman.  Isn't Chili Davis a free agent?  I hear
they're looking at Boggs.

>     In the N.L. East, it's Montreal in a rather easy race for the top.  The
>basement's the tricky one.   Okay, Miami has some good young talent, but
>who can finish behind them?  The Mets, if their pitching really sours and
>HoJo stops hitting, but that's unlikely.  The Phillies have a good offense,
>so I doubt they can.  Cubs and Cards are middle of the pack teams, with
>the Cards probably eeking out second place ahead of the Bucs.  So, despite
>the jokes about how bad the division is, I doubt the Marlins will escape
>the basement.

Well, the Cards got rid of Galarraga, which ought to add 20 or 30 wins to
their team right there.  But they're losing one of their better hitters
in Ozzie, and I'm not sure who's going to playing first for them, now.

Montreal is probably the best team, though.

>     In the N.L. West, Denis Boucher will allow a huge number of homers
>playing in his new park, and Ritz, Aldred, and Boucher alone will allow over
>100.  The Rockies could allow 200 as a staff.  Fred McGriff will launch a
>few balls 500 feet, but San Diego won't quite have enough pitching to overcome
>the Braves.  Maybe in '94.

San Diego is quite overrated.  They have 3 quality offensive players,
McGriff, Sheffield, and Gwynn.  They have several good but not great
starters.  That does not put them anywhere *near* Atlanta, which has
bunches of quality offensive players (Pendleton, Blauser, Gant, Justice, 
Deion) plus even more depth (Klesko and Mitchell being the big ones.)
plus many excellent pitchers.

The Rockies staff is going to be frightening, but their "offense" even
more so.  They're going to make the Cubs look patient at the plate.

>     Assuming Puckett signs with the ChiSox, can you imagine an offense
>with him batting behind Frank Thomas?  The opposing hurlers won't want to
>pass Thomas, and he could get 150+ r.b.i.s!  Or, do you bat Puckett in
>front of Thomas?  If the Sox sign him, and McDowell has another good year,
>the White Sox will have their first world title in 76 years.  Otherwise, I
>think it'll be the Braves.

All together now, class: "Putting good hitters behind people who walk
does *not* make them walk less."  It cuts their *intentional* walks.
That's it.  It changes none of their other stats.  See Dawson, Andre,
1990-1991, with George Bell behind him.  See Thomas, Frank, 1991-1992,
with George Bell behind him.  

The ChiSox have a good, but very unbalanced team.  Their 1b, 3b, and lf
are good.  So's their shortstop, but they're too dumb to play him, I
bet.  Their dh is incredibly overrated, and average at best.  Their
catcher, too.  Their 2b, cf, and rf are pathetic, though.  If they'd
play the right people (Cora, Grebeck, Newson) they'd be better.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | "If America is a Christian country because a majority
niepornt@phoenix.    | of the population is Christian, is it also a female 
   princeton.edu     | nation?  Or a white nation?"  -- Michael Kinsley,
Roland:Sign Treadway | to Governor Kirk Fordice of Mississippi.