From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 August
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 18 Aug 1992 22:41:02 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               17 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 230, 08/17/92
10.7 FLUX=133.8  90-AVG=126        SSN=141      BKI=2200 1001  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B3.9     FLU1=1.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1111 1221  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=015,014,004,004,009,004,004,008   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.8   @ 1845UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.2   @ 0730UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2315UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 0615UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0700UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55264NT @ 1353UT   BOUTF-MIN=55225NT @ 1709UT  BOUTF-AVG=55249NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1902UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0359UT  G7-AVG=+083,+036,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 2010UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-007NT@ 1123UT  G6-AVG=+095,+004,+028
 FLUXFCST=STD:133,133,130;SESC:135,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/030,015,010
    KFCST=3445 5443 2334 4333  27DAY-AP=011,046   27DAY-KP=1222 3432 2366 6353
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0606-2319UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  Several C-class flares were observed
today.  The largest flare of the day was a class C3.8/1B event at 18:45 UT
from Region 7260 (N15E03).  Flare activity increased notably in frequency
after 10:00 UT.  Other regions which contributed to the activity include
Regions 7262 (N17W57) and 7264 (N15E46).

     Region 7260 continued to grow in size and magnetic complexity and is
associated with a large area of plage.  The delta configuration on the
southeast side of the large leader spot diminished, while the delta in the
trailer spot complex grew.  Gradients have increased near the east-west
oriented inversion line of the trailer spot delta configuration.  The region
is brightest near this trailer delta and along the north-south oriented
neutral line on the northeast to east side of the large leader spot.
Gradients along the latter neutral line are not as strong as those developing
near the trailer spot delta complex.  If growth continues in this trailer
spot complex, the potential for more energetic minor flare activity will
increase.  M-class flares may be possible from Region 7260.

     Regions 7262 and 7264 both experienced minor growth over the last 24
hours and are expected to continue to produce minor B and C-class flare
activity.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity is expected to continue mostly low.  There is a growing
possibility for minor M-class flare activity from Region 7260.  All of the
other regions should remain dormant or produce minor B or C-class flares.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours.  The field is
expected to become slightly more active over the next 24 to 48 hours due to a
recurrent coronal hole.  Generally unsettled to active conditions are
expected, with possible minor storm periods over the high latitude regions.
Activity should return to quieter levels by 19 or 20 August.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.
Propagation over the middle and low latitude regions are expected to continue
near-normal with only a minor increase in night and morning sector signal
instabilities due to enhanced geomagnetic activity.  High and polar latitude
signal paths should see more substantial levels of fading and absorption
associated with this disturbance.  All regions should see a return to stabler
conditions by 20 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7256  S16W52  310  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7260  N16E03  255  0940 EKO  14  043 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7261  S23W50  308  0010 BXO  05  005 BETA
7262  N17W57  315  0080 DAO  09  014 BETA
7263  N16W45  303  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7264  N15E46  212  0060 CSO  08  011 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 AUGUST TO 20 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7247 N07   168
7238 S20   145
7252 S16   129


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0450 0451 0451                          110
 0807 0808 0810                          130
 1636 1636 1636                          100
 1839 1845 1855 7260  N18E05 C3.8  1B    140


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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