From: king@cogsci.ucsd.EDU (Jonathan King)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: San Diego Padres preseaon report
Summary: I wish I could think the Padres would do better...
Keywords: riddoch:smart::fielder:svelte
Date: 8 Apr 92 03:41:43 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of California, San Diego

kprashan@sdcc3.ucsd.edu (hyderabadi) writes:
>SAN DIEGO PADRES preseason report (almost):

Cool idea.

>After finishing a respectable 3rd in the NLWest last year, the Padres
>have not been given any chance this season by all the 'expert' 
>prognosticators in baseball/sports journalists. Even the SD fans
>would be surprised and happy with a contender. I personally see a
>2nd place finish in a best-case scenario. In any other division, I
>would have given them a chance, not so in the NLWest.

How weird.  Last year, when I was in Pittsburgh, I predicted the
Padres would finish third.  And they did.  But this year, in San
Diego, I picked them to finish fifth.  And they well might.  We're
talking a team of real stars and real zeros and a manager who doesn't
always know one from the other.

>The rest of the division shapes up to be strong, except maybe
>Houston.

I have huge doubts about the Giants, and I seem to be the only person
on the net who isn't dazzled by the Reds.  Why does everybody think the
West is so strong?  Last year, the NL East played better than .500 ball
against them, and I don't see that talent has poured into the division
since then.

>- The Reds helped themselves immensely in the off-season, 
>but will the Dibble injury cost them some important early games?

Again, I don't see that the Reds helped themselves so immensely.
Their pitching should be better, but does anybody think that either
Bip Roberts or Dave Martinez or both will help the offense as much as
a healthy Eric Davis would have?  The Reds offense was okay last year,
but hardly overwhelming, and there is some question about their
bullpen depth now, too.

> [Dodgers comments deleted]
> [Braves comments deleted]
> [Giants comments deleted]
>- The Astros...naaaaah

No, the Astros won't win the division, but they will be a much
improved team.  They could well end up beating the Padres if their
pitching comes together.

>SD Padres roster (courtesy: Nelson Lu)
>
>Pitchers:	Andy Benes, Pat Clements, Dave Eiland, Greg W. Harris,
>		Jeremy Hernandez, Bruce Hurst, Craig Lefferts, Mike Maddux,
>		Jose Melendez, Randy Myers, Rich Rodriguez

Deep Drive Derby fans will note that Dave Eiland was a top finisher
last year in the AL.  Padres fans will note that Hurst is 34, Lefferts is
attempting to become a starter at almost the same age, and Mike Maddux is
Mike Maddux.  This isn't a *bad* staff, but it isn't the best around.

>Catchers:	Dann Bilardello, Benito Santiago

...and when they trade away Santiago, the catching is not likely to be
impressive at all.  Dann Bilardello.  Yum.

>Infielders:	Tony Fernandez, Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, Craig Shipley,
>		Kurt Stillwell, Tim Teufel

If Sheffield plays up to his potential, this should be fine, otherwise
you could be looking at holes at both second and third.  I expect that
Padres fans will really wish they had their first round draft choice back
once they see Kurt Stillwell.

>Outfielders:	Oscar Azocar, Jerald Clark, Tony Gwynn, Thomas Howard,
>		Darrin Jackson, Kevin Ward

I wish I could say that Darrin Jackson is likely to be a real power hitter.
Otherwise, this looks like only 1 decent outfielder.

>Disabled:	RHP Larry Andersen, RHP Ed Whitson

These guys are essentially retired, last I heard.

>PITCHING: 3 good starters in Hurst, Benes and Harris. 
>But then what else? Lefferts is the #4
>starter.. hohoho.. this guy couldn't go 2 inns last year w/out
>giving up a homer (Padres pitchers are very good in giving up
>HRs). And he is the 4th starters? Whitson's injury seems to be
>career ending, too bad. This guy was arguably the best pitcher
>in the NL 2 years ago. Eiland is the #5 starter. But they do
>have some good young pitchers to plug holes in case somebody
>is injured or stinks. 

Almost exactly my thoughts.  This isn't bad, but it isn't enough to
compensate for a possible offensive shortage.

>Solid relief pitching, setup: Maddux & Melendez (RHPs), Clements
>& Rodriguez (LHPs). Closer: Myers. Jeremy Hernandez is a good
>prospect, and will be worked in slowly as the season goes along.

This is the year that Hernandez has to do it, though.  And I'm not a
big Randy Myers fan.  Still, it's not really pitching I worry about on
this team.

>INFIELD: 1b McGriff, 2b Stillwell, 3b Sheffield, ss Fernandez,
>c Santiago. The rest will be pinch-hitters/spot-starters.
>Defensively, this group is excellent, but can Sheffield hit? 
>Will Santiago keep crying about his poverty? will he be traded? 

I think you can color Santiago gone, and what they get for him will be
very important.  I expect that Sheffield *can* hit, but he has to stay
off the DL to be useful.  Fernandez is fine, and McGriff is the Avatar
of the Almighty (tm).  I don't have anything nice to say about
Stillwell, let alone Teufel.  

>OUTFIELD: lf Clark, cf Jackson, rf Gwynn. Defensively, Clark is
>the weakest of the 3, but he is there for his hitting. He has some
>pop and potential. SD has been very patient with him. He started
>off well at the beginning of last season, but was hurt for a long
>time. 

Jerald Clark has had a zero-value career so far, and since he's like 29
this year, I don't see much hope for a turn around.  I wish the Padres
would just accept this and get on with it.

>Jackson was the surprise of the 1991 season. 21 HRs is not bad
>at all, and has started off well this season. The only question is
>his ability against RHPs. Expect Howard to see a lot of action.

Jackson's power was a complete surprise, but I don't know whether it
is a real indicator of his ability.  Another problem is that he has a
shoulder injury that impedes his throwing, which is a big concern.
Further, what does everybody see in Thomas Howard that I don't?

>LINEUP (probable):
>Fernandez
>Gwynn
>Sheffield
>McGriff
>Santiago
>Jackson
>Clark
>Stillwell
>pitcher
>
>The hole created at the top of the order by the departure of Bip
>Roberts is indeed going to be felt. This lineup has little speed
>(Fernandez & Gwynn will run a little), and expect their best SB
>threat Howard to be used often. Putting Sheffield in between Gwynn
>& McGriff may get him to see some good pitches, but then he may
>end killing rallies.. who knows.

This lineup could end up being full of holes, particularly if Santiago
is traded and Sheffield disappoints.  McGriff could end up walking 120
times this year in any case.

>MANAGER:
>
>Many are predicting Riddoch will be the 1st manager to be fired 
>this season. He had his good days and bad days on the field 
>last year (most notably a suicide squeeze by Benes with the bases
>loaded). Despite the injuries the team suffered last year, they
>finished 3rd, and they decided to give him a second shot.

In my opinion, Riddoch is a total dweeb who plays favorites (e.g.
Stillwell) and trades away good talent he doesn't like (e.g. Bip
Roberts).  I have no idea how anybody could implicate him in the
success the Padres enjoyed last year.

>Go Padres..

We agree here. :-)  

jking