From: john@anasazi.com (John R. Moore)
Subject: Re: Flash! Environmentalists switch off Earth's volcanoes (was: The Fr
Reply-To: john@anasazi.com
Organization: Anasazi, Inc.  Phoenix, Arizona USA
Distribution: usa
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1992 16:03:01 GMT

Keywords: 

In article <1992Dec21.210602.17949@pmafire.inel.gov> cdm@pmafire.inel.gov (Dale Cook) writes:
]In article <1992Dec21.173951.19584@anasazi.com> john@anasazi.com writes:
]>]In article <1992Dec17.220703.410@pmafire.inel.gov> cdm@pmafire.inel.gov (Dale Cook) writes:
]>]>Nobody in science seriously doubts that global warming is happening.
]>
]>Well, in our local Geography Department, we have 2 climatologists
]>that I know of that seriously doubt it: Dr. Bob Ballard and 
]>Dr. Sherwood Idso. In fact, Ballard has published a book that gives an
]>excellent presentation of the issue: "The Heated Debate." I recommend
]>it for the science impaired (it would do Rush a lot of good to read it
]>too - he is out to lunch on many environmental issues).
]
]Do they doubt that the earth has warmed over the last century?  
Idso does... he is a historical climatologist, and has shown instrumentation
bias in old readings. Ballard shows some warming.

]it.  Do they dispute whether the recent trend is indicative of a longer
]term trend? 
You betcha.

Or that the recent data (over the last century, earth has
]warmed about .6 degrees C) is nothing more than an aberration in the
]longer term trend? 
They point out that the warming (if the instruments are to be believed)
happened BEFORE most of the CO2 increase occured. They also cast doubts
on the magnitude of the warming.

]Perhaps, that man has nothing to do with the recent
]increase? 
See my previous comment.

]Possibly that the effects over the next century of any increase
]in global average temperature will not be significant?

Yes, they dispute that. Ballard has doubts about the theory, but his
overall view seems to be: that there will be some anthropogenic
CO2-induced warming; That it will be at the lower edge of the range
predicted by the models; that it will be beneficial - increasing crop
growth, and causing harsh climates to moderate slightly.

He also believes that NO action should be taken today to combat global warming,
but that research should continue. He argues that even fairly drastic
measures (which would cause substantial economic dislocation) would
only delay the CO2 increase by a few years, and that thus it makes
sense to gain more information before disrupting economies.

Thus: A historical climatologist has raised doubts about the reported
temperature increase in the last 100 years; another climatologist points
out that even if we believe the increase, we should note that the increase
came BEFORE the major CO2 increases, and that the temperature DECREASED
during much of the CO2 increase; the theory of anthropogenically induced
global warming is weak - it is probably right but current numbers
are likely too high, and that the effects are likely to be BENEFICIAL.

]To argue any of these points is NOT necessarily to argue that the earth
]has not warmed recently or will not warm in the future.

The earth may warm no matter what we do. The point is that there is
a scientific/political issue called "global warming." This thing
is a result of global climate models. It presumes that increasing
CO2 (which NO ONE disputes) will cause temperature increases. The political
aspects of it claim:
  -global warming is happening
  -it is man made and a result of CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" including
   CFC's
  -it is harmful (or catastrophic)
  -we should immediately do something about it

I have shown that THIS thing that we call "global warming" is indeed
doubted by reputable scientists.

Now, to destroy a of straw man:
  -no one disputes the greenhouse theory (ie, that heat is trapped on
   the earth by selective radiation/absorbtion)


-- 
John Moore NJ7E, 7525 Clearwater Pkwy, Scottsdale, AZ 85253  (602-951-9326)
john@anasazi.com ncar!noao!asuvax!anasaz!john anasaz!john@asuvax.eas.asu.edu
       - - Gun Control Means Hitting What You are Aiming At! - -
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