From: gwh@soda.berkeley.edu (George William Herbert)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Energya and Freedom and Soyuz ACRV and...
Date: 18 Aug 1992 09:46:10 GMT
Organization: Dis-
NNTP-Posting-Host: soda.berkeley.edu

In article <1992Aug17.154937.24078@ke4zv.uucp> gary@ke4zv.UUCP (Gary Coffman) writes:
>Indeed. If we follow the plan of using Soyuz and HL Deltas, the Shuttle
>fleet is *gone*. That's Sherzer's plan anyway. With this plan 3/4 of the 
>Shuttle fleet is available for other work than servicing Fred. Now if
>your plan includes operating the full Shuttle fleet in *addition*
>to Soyuz at the station, then *never mind*. Expensive though.

3/4 of the shuttle fleet will not be available for non-station duties.
Since the long duration flights screw up the shuttle  turnaround,
you only get about half the previously-available flights.  Is that
worth it?

>As to the $65 million firm price for Soyuz, I've posted about this
>several times. That may be the price quoted *now*, but wage rates
>in the CIS simply can't stay at $12 a month as their economy changes
>to a market based system. That's going to have a major impact on
>what their space hardware costs. I doubt that *they* have a good idea
>what their hardware costs *now* given the baroque accounting methods of
>the former Soviet Union, and certainly they can't predict what it
>will cost in ten years given the dramatic changes in their economy.

That's not $65 million for a Soyuz; that's $65 million for a Soyuz
and an Atlas.  Most of that was in the Atlas.  I'm presuming $15m
for the Soyuz at current market prices.  I would note that there's
a factor of three in that price for some inflation, just in case.

Let's look at what Soyuz prices might hit when the Russian economy
starts to improve and they pay their workers what they deserve...

The Russian group producing the Soyuz vehicles has about 2400 people
in-house and somewhat less (about 1/2 that) in outside subcontractors.
[These numbers are from memory with conversation with Art Bozlee,
Russian Space Industry analyst].  They have claimed the ability to
produce 15 vehicles a year with existing facilities & crew.  This translates
to rougly 3600/15 or 240 man-years per vehicle.  At current prices,
($12/month/worker) that's $35,000.  At $120 a month, $350,000.  At $1200
per month per worker that's still only $3.5 million.   Multiply by two
for materials and additional subcontracted parts.  Multiply by
two again to give them some in-factory profit.  Multiply by two _again_,
to cover profit in the US and overhead.  $28 million dollars.

Note that the price I was quoted is more than their current costs
by a large margin ($5 million per vehicle).  They're looking for
cash and know that even with that margin, they'll sell some if
anyone has a market.

Soyuz prices might well go up.  They won't likely go past (installed
on a US Vehicle, inclusive of integration exclusive of vehicle)
$30 million per Soyuz.  Even at $30 million, total vehicle cost
is only $80 million on an Atlas.  If the price stays low for
a while, we're looking at my quote of $65 million.

Satisfied?

-george william herbert
gwh@soda.berkeley.edu  gwh@lurnix.com  herbert@uchu.isu92.ac.jp until 28 aug
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