From: keegan@pan.crd.ge.com (James G Keegan Jr)
Newsgroups: talk.abortion
Subject: Re: Barry Goldwater
Date: 13 Aug 92 23:42:04 GMT
Reply-To: james g keegan jr <keegan@crd.ge.com>
Distribution: na
Organization: T.S.A.K.C.
Disclaimer: i speak for myself only, unless noted otherwise

decay@cbnewsj.cb.att.com (dean.kaflowitz) writes:
-> forgach@noao.edu (Suzanne Forgach) writes:
-> > From article by keegan@pan.crd.ge.com (James G Keegan Jr):
-> > > smgarvin@nyx.cs.du.edu (susan garvin) writes:
-> > > -> Goldwater's been pro-choice for a long time.
-> > > -> I'm glad that he's speaking up about it, but
-> > > -> I agree with Jim - it's too late.
-> > > i'm glad that it is (too late). i think the
-> > > choice issue is the sigle-most important factor
-> > > which will swing the election to the democrats.
-> > BLAH HA HA HA HA!  You wish!  The ABORTION issue
-> > is the single-most important factor which will
-> > swing the election to the pro-lifers!
-> 
-> Unemployment running close to 8%, high numbers of
-> business closings, a huge federal deficit, home
-> sales still dragging like crazy.  These are what
-> will throw the election to the pro-choicers if
-> anything does.

i disagree. see below.

-> While the Democratic and Replublican candidates have
-> opposing views on the issue of abortion, it is not
-> the issue of abortion that will decide this
-> election.

i disagree. so do all of the political campaign people
i know who are employed by both the republicans and the
democrats. let me try to explain their thinking, as i
understand it, and mine.

in any election, it is assumed by campaign managers
that certain people will vote for your candidate and
that certain people will oppose your candidate. most
campaigns ignore both of these groups. the target of
their campaign efforts are people whose voting
inclinations are not clear, the undecideds.

assuming the same percentage of women in the undecided
group as there is in the geenral population, more than
50% of the undecideds are female. 

the heavy-duty polling done by each side on this
election,so i'm told, shows the same thing: that most
women are unwilling to support an anti-choice position.
they personally may be strongly opposed to abortion, but
they are not willing to impose that opinion on other
women. the input i hear is that about 80% of the female
undecideds will vote against bush. in the past week, i
heard this same number from someone wotking with the
democratic national committee and from someone else
working with the republican national committee. if that
data is close to being accurate, it'll mean far more
votes than did willie horton the picture of mike in a
tank combined.

-> Your bizarre notion that this election will be about
-> the abortion issue, implied in your statement above,
-> is myopic.  There are bigger issues for most
-> Americans.

that may well be true. but the swing vote is what
decides elections. and the swing which will decide this
election, imo, will be the issue of choice. while that
swing vote represents a minority, whoever gets it, bush
or clinton, will win the election. so from my point of
view, that vote is the most important factor in the
coming election.








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