From: bill@bilver.uucp (Bill Vermillion)
Subject: Re: questions on new digital formats
Organization: W. J. Vermillion - Winter Park, FL
Date: Fri, 25 Dec 1992 15:27:02 GMT

In article <28963@oasys.dt.navy.mil> curt@oasys.dt.navy.mil (Curt Welch) writes:

>And I think MD will not only beat out DCC, but it will also replace
>ACC, and in about 3 years, I think MD sales will even pass CD sales.
>MD will never replace CD, but I think MD will replace CD as the primary
>audio distribution format.

It seems that most people viev this as a battle between MD and
DCC - and which one will be the winner.

The third scenario is that there is no winner, and they both
disappear, or become niche market items.  There have been
instances in the past where the consuming public waits until a
clear winner has been determined before committing their
dollars.   If it becomes a statemate they could both lose.

I'm leaning more towards this scenario myself as I have seen
too many - far TOO many - new 'inovations' in audio that were
to sweep the world from all that went before.

Inludes such things a pre-recorded audio tape in a cassette
type form that loaded to/from the tape cartridge - that was
courtesy of 3M/Wollensak.   Hip-Pocket records - flexible mini
45's to take to the beach - from Philco/Ford.

A novel idea that had tape in mini hubs - using the Newell tape
transport idea - really looked good - but also went away.

Then there were 16 2/3 LPs for music.    And how about the 10"
records with the 45 RPM sized center holes that played at 16
2/3 rpm - they were background music.

The quad format for LP's.   And the ever-popular El-Cassette -
designed to overcome the limits of the cassette format :-)

And 2-track reel-reel, both stacked and staggered.  Four-track
reel to reel,  both high-speed and low-speed.    

Though not really pertinent to the audio part of this
discussion, in video we had at least 4 cartridge formats before 
Beta and VHS - (not to mention a couple of reel-reel units) 
and 6 videodisk standards - and if Pioneer hadn't
hung in there, we might not have a single one today.

And the lowly cassette, that didn't even pretend to be a music
device when it first came out, conquered them all.

I've become really jaded to announcments from those who think
they control the entertaiment industry about what is the
"greatest things since xxxxx - and will undoubtedly change the
way the world sees  xxxxx forever" or statements even more
pompous.   The thing those who think they control the industry
don't realize, is that they don't control the business, they
merely get to drive it in a certain direction after the buying
public decides what the direction is.

The CD held (holds) a fascination for the bying public.  Anyone
can see that it differs radically from anything that went
before.    TV news anchors commented on the little silver disk,
newspapers ran articles, the publice was amazed.

I just can see that happening with DCC as it looks too much
like the old stuff in new packaging.  And the consumer gets
enough of that with all the commercial for "new"  "new
improved" "exciting new formula that xxxxx"   - sure and they
see just how 'new and improved' the old stuff is, and they
don't buy it.     The American consumer is more immune to hype
that the advertising industry would like you to believe.

Anyway - lets review this discussion a year or two from now and
see what has happened.






-- 
Bill Vermillion - bill@bilver.oau.org  bill@bilver.uucp
                - ..!{peora|tous|tarpit}!bilver!bill
Newsgroups: rec.audio