From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 1993 09:18:50 GMT

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 009, 01/09/93
10.7 FLUX=128.8  90-AVG=140        SSN=131      BKI=3333 3322  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=B2.5     FLU1=1.6E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3333 3333  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=030,036,025,020,036,023,017,013   DEV-AVG=025 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.2   @ 2157UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 1630UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1810UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2320UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2235UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1120UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55426NT @ 0528UT   BOUTF-MIN=55401NT @ 1953UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+113NT@ 2106UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+001NT@ 0001UT  G7-AVG=+074,+028,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1910UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 0523UT  G6-AVG=+093,-002,+037
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,125;SESC:130,125,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,012,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=3343 3333 3333 3322  27DAY-AP=006,007   27DAY-KP=2001 2222 2312 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Two optically uncorrelated
       B-class X-ray bursts occurred very early in the period. Minor
       growth was noted in Region 7389 (S20W17). The remaining regions
       were stable. New Region 7399 (N07E16) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. An isolated C-class subflare may occur within
       Region 7386 (S05W38).

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled levels for
       the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels occurred at
       high latitudes from 09/0900-1800Z and may have been due to
       coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Active periods may occur
       during the first day due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 10 jan-12 jan

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 jan-12 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/25/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions today.  Auroral latitudes and the upper middle
       latitudes experienced minor signal degradations between 06:00
       UT and 12:00 UT due to enhanced geomagnetic and auroral
       activity.  Conditions improved throughout the remainder of the
       day.  All regions should continue to see near-normal
       propagation for the next 72 hours.  Additional minor signal
       degradation may be possible for the next 24 hours on paths
       which cross into or pass near the auroral ovals during the
       local night and morning sectors.  Global improvements in
       night-sector signal stability are expected on 11 or 12 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S05W38  184  0220 CSO  04  004 BETA
7387  S22W35  181  0030 DSO  06  006 BETA
7389  S20W17  163  0000 BXO  03  003 BETA
7391  S12E15  131  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7394  S18W33  179  0060 DAO  09  013 BETA
7395  N13E33  113  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7396  S12E01  145  0010 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7398  N08E29  117  0040 DSO  05  009 BETA
7399  N07E16  130  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7392  N14W45  191                    PLAGE
7393  S20W52  198                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 JANUARY TO 12 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7370 S09   047


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
Newsgroups: sci.space.news