From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: MLB Standings and Scores for Mon, Jul 27th, 1992
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 17:09:37 GMT

In article <Bs5r43.A6H@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson) writes:
>
>Their pitching is kinda messed up.  It has been overhauled but has it
>gotten better?

Yes, it has.  Storm Davis isn't a great pitcher, but he is better than
what Milacki has shown.  Especially if you have a deep bullpen.

>You are depending on *Young* pitchers to come through in a pennant drive.

Didn't we hear this argument last year in the NL West?  I think those
young pitchers did pretty well.

Young pitchers can be good.  The problem is that the media fails to
distinguish between Quantrill, Eldred, and Rhodes.  They talk about
them all as if they were equally likely to bomb.  Quantrill *might*
eventually be a major league pitcher.  Eldred will *probably* be a
major league pitcher.  Rhodes stands a decent chance of being a star.

Of course this doesn't guarantee that Rhodes will do it *this* year.
It was clear that Nagy was eventually going to be pretty good, but he
put up two pretty miserable seasons first.  But Rhodes has spent that
extra year in the minors.  He could have been brought up after spring
training, but was instead given more time.  I'd say he's a reasonable
bet.

McDonald is a bit flaky, but he looked solid his last time out.  He
needs only to keep the ball in the park a bit more, and he will be
successful.

As for Mussina, anybody who isn't convinced that he is a great pitcher
*now* hasn't been watching the games.

>Well, maybe but up to recently Olerud has been very mediocre and if we can
>get Gruber hitting like he can I will take the Blue Jays offense over the
>Orioles.

Gruber is a much-injured 30 year old player who has never topped a
.330 OBP.  He has only hit above a .450 SLG once, and that was two
years and a dozen injuries ago.  Bill James predicted a .314/.437
performance.  That's about the best you can hope for at this point...

Olerud has been "very mediocre"?  The last two years he has put up a
.790 OPS.  Gruber, of course, only achieved that once in his entire
career!  Through the beginning of June, he had a .710 OPS, but how
much do stats mean when taken on a sample that small?  He has now
raised that to a .840 OPS.  Gruber has *never* achieved that.  So what
did you expect?  Fred McGriff?  Olerud has been somewhat streaky, but
he has been a *fine* producer for the Blue Jays.  Unlike Gruber who is
(was) merely a good roto player.

>Their offense will be better when and if Gruber can hit close to what he can.

No *wonder* you think the Blue Jays have a ton of talent.  You believe
that Gruber has MVP-type talent!  Look carefully at his career.  He
did hit .290 once, and he did hit 30 HR once.  But not at the same
time.  Take his career as a whole, and you should expect 15-20 HR (per
550 AB) and a .260 BA, with little patience at the plate.  Gruber had
a fluke year in 1990, and will probably never come close to repeating
it.  Especially now that he is doing a Mike Greenwell imitation with
his injuries.

>You can have your own opinion but I think that the Jays offense will improve
>and Morris will pitch a little better and he will win 18-20 games.

Are you willing to place your money where your mouth is?  Or at least
your pride?  Shall I store this prediction until the end of the year
and unveil it then?  I'm willing to predict that the Blue Jays offense
will score *fewer* R/G than it has been, and that Morris won't reach
18 wins.  (Though I figure he has about a 1:3 chance of doing so.)

>I will always take experienced players over rookies.  I know Molitor
>and Yount will continue to hit well, but do we know that about Hoiles?
>The way Milwaukee is winning so many games is because they are
>aggressive on the bases and have some quality veterens.

Not to mention the fact that they have six players batting .280 or
better.  Unlike the Jays, the Brewers do *not* have a lot of depth.
You say you "know" that Molitor and Yount will continue to hit well.
But they can't hit very well off the DL.  The Brewers haven't had any
major injuries this year (except Spiers, and they were able to replace
hm with Listach).  If Molitor or Yount is injured, the offense takes
a dive.

Besides, I can point to lots of ways that Baltimore might improve.
Hoiles might return and hit.  Ripken might start hitting.  They might
move Milligan to #2 in the batting order (or at least get a slugger
behind him).  Rhodes might (will!) pitch better than Mesa.

Does Milwaukee have *any* hope of doing better than they already are?
It seems to me that they are already making the most of what they
have.  And it isn't enough.  BTW, Austin left the game with an injury
last night.  Which could seriously hurt their (shallow) bullpen.

>I am not saying that Baltimore will sit down and watch Toronto and Milwaukee
>go off in the distance but I don't feel they have the pitching to win this 
>year.  I would watch out for Baltimore to contend over the next few years,
>when they get more experience, but for now they have too many question marks.

Rhodes was tagged at the beginning of this year as one of the top
three prospects in the minors.  Now that Van Poppel is floundering and
Rhodes has overcome his control problems, I would say he is at *least*
#2, and possible #1.  Still no guarantee.  But the O's were doing
pretty well with Mesa, and I can't see Rhodes being any worse!

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
Vaughn, Irvine, Valentin...  Where is Wedge?	tedward@cs.cornell.edu