From: weiser@pogo.den.mmc.com (Matt Weiser)
Subject: Summary of Tech Stock Picks
Organization: Martin Marietta WIS
Distribution: usa
Date: Wed, 15 Apr 1992 22:20:30 GMT

The following is a summary of net responses to my original post for Tech Stock
picks for a test portfolio.  Thanks to everyone who responded.  These are partial
or full responses from most if not all who emailed me.  Names have been
left off to protect the innocent, even though they are all good responses.

Short Intel		there is too much competition for intel to survive.
		Those who are smart will be getting out now, and this
		should push the stock down in the coming months.

Buy Novell		Large Cash reserves

Buy Adobe	
	
Buy AT&T		Although these stocks will be hit hard by a loss

Buy IBM		of defense spending and increased competition,
		they both have a solid research base which should
		make their value increase in the event of a crash.
		
Exabyte		8mm tape drives (monopoly)
		
AMD		PE of 11, breaking into Intel's Mkt Share, good earnings
Apple		PE 20, IBM alliance, pen computers, pocket computer w/ sony
		
Informix		Large cash reserves, no debt, rev & profit increasing
		
Cognos (NASDAQ-COGNF)		  Their stock has taken its periodic beating while the company is doing
		  fine. Their product is solid, competition is stable. They make
		  a 4GL and DBMS. Few people are equiped to understand the company
		  and its market so its easy for its stock to be mispriced.

Autodesk (NASDAQ-ACAD)		
		  They make the well known Autocad software package. Their stock also
		  gets beaten up easily. Their corporate culture seems like a very
		  creative place and some hot new product might well come out of it.
		  Meanwhile, Autocad keeps selling.

Intel (NASDAQ-INTC)		  Their monopoly is ending but they are still in a market with only
		  a handful of competitors, the demand for their product (386, 486) is
		  guaranteed to continue, and the barrier to entry is high. They are the
		  innovator so other companies are always lagging behind. Their stock
		  recently went from 65 to 55 on a bad Barons article and the announcement
		  by Cyrix (spelling?) of a 486 clone. Look for them to bounce back. They
		  already went from 35 back to 67 in the last year.

Symbolics (NASDAQ-SMBX)		  Their stock is very low compared to their revenues. Someone just
		  bought a chunk of them and caused an interesting blip in the price.
		  Any good news will help them and bad news will just encourage
		  someone to take them over. Either way the price goes up.
		Oracle and Ask are both database vendors who are in for the long
		haul. Their prices fluctuate so you want to look at a past 12 month
		curve to get on at the right point.


		Avoid:
		Digital (DEC) = they still don't have their act together. They have
		no strategy and the Alpha chip might sell well to the media but
		no VMS user or Unix user every requested it. They might pull it out
		but they haven't really cut any people and they are very top-heavy.
		Ken Olson has to wake up.



Silicon Graphics		I recommend Silicon Graphics Inc. (NYSE...SGI). They recently bought MIPS
		and are preparing to announce new products SOON. The price is currently
		low due to the recent purchase of MIPS. I bought 300 shares two weeks ago
		at $20.25.

Borland		Currently, I would add Borland Int. to my portfolio.  The stock dropped
		~$14-15 last week on news that Microsoft had bought Fox Software (I think
		that is the name - maybe Foxbase or something like that), the makers of
		FoxPro database.  The market over-reacted to the news.  BORL should climb
		back up to 65-75 within a short (~2 month) period of time.  BORL will now
		be competing against Microsoft in the database arena.  BORL has 2 database
		packages - Paradox (their own) and Dbase (when the bought Ashton-Tate last
		year.  BORL has had success battling MS in the compiler and
		spreadsheet products.

Chips & Technology		Chips and Technology (CHPS) after two years of no new products she now
		has four important new products.
		Software Toolworks (TWRX) new management, multimedia field reving up
		Concurrent Computers (CCUR) restructured and good technology in the realtime
		UNIX computers.

		Extremely speculative
Tandon		Tandon (TCOR) dirt cheap - 87% sales in Europe - factory in Europe - little
		debt and very high dollar sales per share.

Commodore		     Commodore International (CBM) : Currently on the low side of its
		trading curve (11.5).  Has a fairly strong balance sheet and there are
		rumors of a take-over attempt buy a japanese investment firm.  There
		debt/assets ratio is very good (< 1).  Expectations of a $2.85
		dividend this year.  Long term outlook stock price near $30 and
		earnings of $3.50 per share as early as 1994.

Silicon Graphics		     Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) : Currently trading in the mid-ranges
		of its cycle (20.5).  Price has dropped several points recently
		because of purchase of MIPS (chip manufacturer).  This purchase will
		reduce earnings for this quarter but is a good, long-term move since
		SGI is now in control of its own chip manufacturing needs (cuts out
		one level of middle man).  I work with SGI equipment every day and I
		can say, without reservation, SGI is the king of the high-speed
		graphics arena.  I see only massive growth out of the company for the
		foreseeable future.


Sun Microsystems		My investment club recently decided to buy Sun Microsystems.  Based
		upon an analysis of the company fundamentals, we are predicting an
		earnings increase of 15% (very conservative, that - most brokers are
		predicting more than 20%) over the next five years.  Right now their
		PE is something like 65% of their historical PE average.  So, these
		two factors together gave us a very significant gain prediction over
		a five year term.

SyQuest		Look at these stocks : SyQuest Technology
AW Computer		                       A. W. Computer
Sierra Semiconductor		                       Sierra Semiconductor
Dell		                       Dell


Sun Microsystems		One good company to get into right now is Sun.
		Their stock has taken a beating but they are "on the verge" of a
		helluva lot of new products.  They will soon have new CPUs, in
		new workstations, new servers, a new OS, a port of the OS for
		Intel.  Methinks the price right now ($27 or so) is definitely
		on the low side.

		Another factor in the picture is that wall street traditionally
		thinks Unix companies are not so hot.  If so, there is an arbitrage
		opportunity there.


I personally created a portfolio with the following stocks.  I am following
our prof's philosophy of low P/E small size, along with my wish for
timeliness and debt to equity ratios.

Advanced Micro
American Power
Apple Computer
Cabletron Systems
Computer Associates
Dell Computer
Novell
TeraDyne
Storage Tech ( why oh why oh why? )
Silicon Graphics
Aydin Corp
Exabyte


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