From: philip@utstat.uucp (Philip McDunnough)
Subject: Re: Stability of Next as a company
Organization: University of Toronto, Dept. of Statistics
Date: Sun, 23 Aug 1992 22:40:00 GMT

In article <1992Aug23.195508.566@prim> prim!dave@germany.eu.net (Dave Griffiths) writes:

[Quotes uncertainty surrounding NeXT's ability to survive...]
>
>Unless something drastic happens, NeXT don't have a chance of surviving.
>(This is not a widely shared view in this news group, but then the people
>here seem to be sustained by something approaching religous faith. When the
>crunch does come, expect widespread shock and disbelief). The reasons I
>believe they are in trouble are:

As someone who has been very critical of NeXT, and am not a NeXT zealot, I
must tell you that assigning zero probabilty to NeXT's survival is 
something I can't agree with. I wonder what you would assign as your
subjective probability of Apple surviving totally independent of IBM? I am
virtually certain that IBM and HP will survive. I can't say the same about
many other computer companies.
>
>1) Their sales are declining, rather than increasing. Over here in Munich,
>   everybody in the NeXT centre was depressed at the poor worldlwide sales.
>   (NeXT soon cured their depression by sacking most of them :). Rumour (and
>   that's all we have to go on) has it that there was a brief flurry of
>   excitement and good sales after the Station was launched last year (this
>   ties in with the only announcement by NeXT of quarterly sales back in
>   April 91). Since then it's gone quiet. An awful lot of boxes are piled
>   up in dealer's warehouses.

Sales here seem to be pretty good. They'd be even better if NeXT got out of
the workstation race, and get back to marketing a personal academic workstation,with an entry level system that is affordable for students.
>
>2) The major software companies have stopped porting and upgrading their
>   software on the NeXT. If NeXT were growing vigorously, the big companies
>   simply wouldn't ignore them in this way. To get some perspective, step
>   outside the NeXT world for a while: NeXT might as well not exist.
>   Every man and his dog is gearing up for Windows NT. Lots of people want
>   to run the same software on the NeXT as they can run on Windows or Mac,
>   and no matter how good the homegrown software is, it would be reassuring
>   to have the large companies supporting the platform.

Windows NT is hardly assured of great success. OS/2 version 2.0 is here now.
It is expensive, nice and people are becoming very interested in it. I see
no evidence that "Every man and his dog is gearing up for Windows NT.". It's
still vaporware, expensive vaporware, etc...

Which major software companies have stopped supporting NeXT? There weren't
many to begin with. WordPerfect was an exception and they will apparently
continue supporting the platform. I have no idea what Lotus has in mind for 
Improv.
 
The future of the NeXT lies in small companies, and it is very important that
NeXT give them all the information necessary to continue moving innovative
software to the platform. There are many talented people who have fallen in
love with the NeXT. They aren't about to give up on it that easily.
>
>3) Lack of money means NeXT are cutting costs in places which will hurt them
>   more than the money they save. Examples: charging developers for support,
>   lack of advertizing, dropping support for OD/Dimension, inability to
>   cut hardware prices.

The developers issue is very unfortunate, and I do hope that NeXT takes a
longer term view of matters and deals with that in a reasonable way. Has
NeXT dropped the ND? They dealt with the OD in a very silly way, but then 
made up for it (in part) with an excellent CD-ROM/3.0 upgrade. They would
be completely out of the doghouse if they supported the newer 3.5" MO's
and reasssured Cube owners that they will not be left behind.
 
What do you mean by inability to cut hardware prices?
>
>4) Steve Jobs is displaying signs of flailing around trying desperately to
>   find a niche for NeXT. The result is that NeXT lack focus. We've had:
>   education, multimedia, group productivity and now that marketing
>   mouthful, mission critical custom apps.

Well, I don't like the mission critical stuff either, but I can't detect
any signs of desperate flailing...
>
>5) None of the above would matter if NeXT had something up their sleeve,
>   something sufficiently momentous to make people sit up and take notice, to
>   turn the market around. But they don't. Release 3.0, no matter how nice it
>   is, is an incremental step forward (contentious view point. Something like 
>   the rumoured OO database replacing the file system would have been
>   revolutionary). The new hardware is late late late (we were all expecting
>   it to be announced at NeXT Expo remember?) and when it comes will
>   probably be too expensive. The one big ace that NeXT could have played is
>   NeXTStep 486, but they seem really half baked about it. The latest
>   release date is Q1 93 !!! Why? By that time Windows NT will be out. And
>   the pricing that they've announced for it proves that they're not really
>   serious about it. $1500 for an end-user licence! This in a cut-throat
>   market where you can buy the hardware for that.

How do you know that NeXT has nothing up its sleeve? I'd rather they get
the Nextstep PC version right than release something which will last a
month. Q1 93 is ok, and by then the real price will be known. Windows NT
will also, by then, hopefully readjust what is currently a very hign price
of $500. Isn't the preliminary price of NeXTSTep PC $1000?   
>
>With their current policies, NeXT are in trouble and cannot survive in their 
>current form. Which is not to say that NeXTStep itself won't survive...

I just don't agree at all with this. You haven't provided any convincing
evidence let alone a convincing case.

Followup to .advocacy please if need be.

Philip McDunnough
philip@utstat.toronto.edu