From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1992 18:51:44 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               14 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 288, 10/14/92
10.7 FLUX=105.5  90-AVG=118        SSN=067      BKI=2333 2235  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B2.5     FLU1=4.6E+05  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=3333 3235  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=015,024,029,029,019,015,025,094   DEV-AVG=031 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.9   @ 1935UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 2353UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.6
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2310UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1105UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0535UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 1935UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 0336UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1702UT  BOUTF-AVG=55419NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+145NT@ 1946UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-014NT@ 2348UT  G7-AVG=+080,+036,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+146NT@ 1946UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-024NT@ 1716UT  G6-AVG=+088,-014,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,105,107;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,010,010/025,020,020
    KFCST=3344 4453 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=076,026   27DAY-KP=5677 5455 4545 4333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  A long-duration class C9.9 x-ray event
was observed at 19:35 UT.  The source of this activity was an eruptive
prominence observed on the west limb near N12.  Material from the eruption
was visible out to 0.16 solar radii.  No other notable x-ray events were
observed.

     Region 7306 (S08W71) continued to decay and simplify as it approached
the west limb.  It is not expected to produce anything more energetic than
small B and/or C-class subflares.

     Regions 7310 (N07E38) and 7311 (S17E45) showed minor growth over the
last 24 hours, but have remained quiet.

     New Region 7312 (N20E68) was assigned.

     Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.  There are still no
indications of an active region beyond the east limb.  The only evidence
supporting this assumption was the observed loop system that appeared to be
fairly well correlated with one of the long-duration C-class flares.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the last 24 hours.  An
enhancement is expected on 15 October due to a well placed coronal hole.
Active to minor storm conditions will be possible on 15 October in response
to this disturbance.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal through most of the day.
Minor signal degradation began to be observed over the high latitude regions
late in the UT day as levels of geomagnetic activity began to increase.
Conditions are expected to become generally poor over the high and polar
latitude paths, mostly good to fair over the middle latitude paths, and
predominantly good over the low latitudes over the next 24 hours.  Some
improvement may be observed on 16 October as the activity subsides.
However, yet another period of minor degradation will be possible on 18
October when another small coronal hole rotates into a favorable position.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7306  S08W71  283  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7309  S16W38  250  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7310  N07E38  174  0040 CRO  04  008 BETA
7311  S17E45  167  0040 CSO  05  005 BETA
7312  N20E68  144  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7307  S18W27  239                    PLAGE
7308  N09W59  271                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 OCTOBER TO 17 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7289 S10   104


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/B1926             A1936       N12W90   EPL    C9.9   34


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
61   N72E88 N54W14 N61W90 N72E88  208  ISO   POS   026 10830A
62   N26E37 N23E30 N25E20 N38E31  189  ISO   POS   004 10830A
63   S39E68 S41E63 S25E43 S23E58  165  ISO   POS   012 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S30 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.  The
      northern polar hole presently has an extension inferred to N32 at the
      central meridian.

**  End of Daily Report  **
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