From: forgach@noao.edu (Suzanne Forgach)
Subject: Re: CONTRACEPTIVE FAILURE RATES, NFP SUCCESS RATES
Originator: forgach@gemini.tuc.noao.edu
Organization: National Optical Astronomy Observatories, Tucson, AZ, USA
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1992 20:02:49 GMT

From article <1992Aug31.201514.17406@watson.ibm.com>, by Larry Margolis <margoli@watson.ibm.com>:
> In  <1992Aug30.212940.15090@menudo.uh.edu>  HADCRJAM@admin.uh.edu (MILLER, JIMMY A.) writes:
>> Table 1. % of women experiencing contraceptive failure during the 1st 12 month
>> of use, uncorrected and corrected for underreporting of abortion, by method,
>> NFSG, 1988
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> method      uncorrected,     corrected,     corrected,
>>           unstandardized  unstandardized  standardized
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> pill          5.1             8.3            7.3
>> condom        7.2            14.8           15.8
>> diaphragm    10.4            15.9           22.0
>> periodic
>> abstinence   20.9            25.6           31.4
>> sponge       14.5            *              *
>> spermicides  13.4            25.2           30.2
>> other        13.3            27.8           26.2
> 
> So Suzanne's beloved "periodic abstinence" gives the worst results of
> all methods of birth control.  Not surprising to most people...



Read this and weep, Larry:


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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timestamped: Jun 20 '90
logo: Fertility Appreciation NFP

                            C A R E l i n e

     A Publication for Creighton Model Natural Family Planning Teachers
______________________________________________________________________________

                           SPRING 1990

                         THREE IS A CHARM

              by Thomas W. Hilgars, MD, CNFPMC, CNFPE


   In September, 1989, at the Catholic Physicians' Guild Meeting in Houston,
the largest study of the effectiveness of the Creighton Model Natural Family
Planning Systems was presented.  This study was conducted under the direction
of Margaret Howard, NFPE, at the St. Joseph Natural Family Planning Center in
Houston, Texas (St. Joseph Hospital).

   There is something "magical" about a third study. If one looks at the data
and compares it to the two previous studies completed, one gains considerable
strength and added confidence in the effectiveness of the Creighton Model
Natural Family Planning Systems.  In addition, this study shows that the
effectiveness continues to improve, as it should, if one understands the
improved delivery of natural family planning services.

   Next, it is _extremely_important_ that the Creighton Model Natural
Family Planning System now has three independently performed studies of
its effectiveness performed here in the United States.  I want to emphasize
that _this_is_the_only_model_ that has such data available for it here in
the United States.  In fact, outside of the Billings' Ovulation Method,
there are _no_studies_ of the effectiveness of natural family planning
methods which are currently taught in the United States.  This is an
extremely important finding!  It clearly makes the Creighton Model stand
out amongst any of its "rivals".  But, most importantly, it means that the
work that is being done in the Creighton Model Natural Family Planning
Systems is progressing along a responsible, client oriented, consumer
accountable plan.

   As you may recall, the method effectiveness of the model was 99.6 percent
in the Creighton-St. John's Mercy study conducted in 1980 (559 couples;
4,957 couple months of use) (see Table 1).  In 1985, Joanne Doud published
the results of her study at St. Francis Hospital of Wichita, Kansas.  The
method effectiveness was 99.1 percent (376 couples; 2,463 months of use).
In the most recent study, the largest to date, the method effectiveness is
99.9 percent (697 couples; 7,238 couple months of use).

   The use effectiveness for the model for the three studies at the 12th
ordinal month was 94.8 percent, 96.2 percent and 97.4 percent repsectively.
As you can see, the use effectiveness is actually improved over the past ten
years.  This would be expected since the Creighton-St. John's Mercy Study
was conducted with a second generation Follow-up Form and the two most recent
studies were conducted with a third generation Follow-up Form (the current
one).  In addition, as one improves teaching techniques and improves one's
individual capabilities in teaching, one would expect the effectiveness to
improve along with it.

   The use effectiveness of the method to achieve pregnancy varied amongst
the three studies. In the Creighton-St. John's Mercy Study, the use effect-
iveness at 12 ordinal months was 21.3 (see Table 2).  For the Wichita Study
it was 28.0 and for the Houston Study 14.3.  This degree of variability is
to be exptected amongst different centers dealing in different areas of the
country.  It's not surpriseing to see this type of variation.  The use
effectiveness to achieve a pregnancy is the single most variable percentage
in the study of the effectiveness of any method of family planning.

   We congratulate the Houston Center for their recent, major contribution
to a better understanding of the Creigton Model Natural Family Planning
Systems.  In addition, we want you all to know that this is exciting news
and that the method of natural family planning you are involved in and the
system you are currently providing is clearly the single best system that
has ever been devised!

   We have an old saying that we have been using for many years:  "The proof
is in the pudding!"  Tables 1 and 2 provide both the proof and the pudding.

                                TABLE 1

                       METHOD AND USE-EFFECTIVENESS
                           TO AVOID PREGNANCY
          OF THE CREIGHTON MODEL NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING SYSTEM
                            BY ORDINAL MONTH
                       AND CENTER CONDUCTION STUDY

ORDINAL         METHOD EFFECTIVENESS                USE EFFECTIVENESS
MONTH   CREIGHTON(1)  WICHITA(2)  HOUSTON(3)   CREIGHTON  WICHITA  HOUSTON
_______ ____________________________________ ______________________________

  6       99.6          99.4        100.0         95.8      97.3    98.6

 12       99.6          99.1         99.9         94.8      96.2    97.3

 18       99.6          N/A          99.9         94.6      N/A     97.0


Year of   1980          1985        1989           -         -       -
study

Number of  559           376         697           -         -       -
couples

Number   4,957         2,463       7,238           -         -       -
of couple- 
months


                              TABLE 2

                         USE-EFFECTIVENESS
                       TO ACHIEVE PREGNANCY
         OF THE CREIGHTON MODEL NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING SYSTEMS
                         BY ORDINAL MONTH
                   AND CENTER CONDUCTING STUDY

ORDINAL                  USE-EFFECTIVENESS TO ACHIEVE
MONTH              CREIGHTON(1)      WICHITA(2)      HOUSTON(3)
_______            ____________________________________________

  6                   12.0             19.9            7.9

 12                   21.3             28.0           14.3

 18                   26.8              N/A           24.9

Year of study         1980             1985           1989

Number of couples      559              376            697

Number of            4,957            2,463          7,238
Couple-months
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

(1) Hilgers, T.W., Prebil, A.M. and Daly, K.D.:
    The Effectiveness of the Ovulation Method as a Means of Achieving and
    Avoiding pregnancy.  Presented at Education Phase III Continuing Education
    Conference for Natural Family Planning Practitioners, July 24, 1980,
    Mercy Fontenelle Center, Omaha, Nebraska.

(2) Doud, J.: Use-effectiveness of the Creghton Model of NFP.
    Int. Rev. Nat. Fam. Plan. 9:54, 1985

(3) Howard, M.P.: Use-effectiveness of the Ovualtion Method (Creighton Model)
    of Natural Famiy Planning.  St. Joseph Hospital, Houston, Texas, 1989