From: steinly@topaz.ucsc.edu (Steinn Sigurdsson)
Newsgroups: sci.environment
Subject: Re: population load question
Date: 4 Sep 92 16:13:40
Organization: Lick Observatory/UCO
	<1992Sep3.171421.5807@cs.rochester.edu>
	<1992Sep4.165811.9405@samba.oit.unc.edu>
NNTP-Posting-Host: topaz.ucsc.edu
In-reply-to: Bruce.Scott@bbs.oit.unc.edu's message of 4 Sep 92 16:58:11 GMT

In article <1992Sep4.165811.9405@samba.oit.unc.edu> Bruce.Scott@bbs.oit.unc.edu (Bruce Scott) writes:

   In article <1992Sep3.171421.5807@cs.rochester.edu> dietz@cs.rochester.edu (Paul Dietz) writes:
   >In article <1992Sep3.160709.11059@samba.oit.unc.edu> Bruce.Scott@bbs.oit.unc.edu (Bruce Scott) writes:

   >> Whatever the population carrying capacity turns out to be, we can say
   >> with some certainty that it is less than the current 5+ billion. Certain
   >> very visible events around the world in the last years have made it
   >> clear.

   >I hope you display more rigor in your physics than you do in this
   >posting.  For starters, define "carrying capacity".

   Carrying capacity, n. Number of people who can live in a sustainable way
   in arable land areas of the earth's surface in reasonable comfort with
   reasonable nutrition.

   Reasonable comfort, n. Living space at least 200 qm/person. Max indoor
   temp 30 C, min 15 C. 10 full changes of day-to-day clothes. Warm
   clothes commensurate with climate to allow 6 hrs of non-stop activity
   in winter. Housing sufficiently isolated to satisfy temperature limits
   and suffer no noise intrusion above 40dB. Mobile transportation, at
   least 2 vehicles capable of 100km/hr for 2 hrs per 4 people. 20 years
   education available free to every person. Nearest park or wilderness
   area, 5km. Nearest sports facilities or fields, 2km. Maximum wait for
   non-emergency medical services, 7 days. Infant mortality rate less than
   20/1000.

Wow! That's a serious "reasonable" comfort standard! I note lot of
northern Europe and America is ruled out by the 6hrs non-stop outdoor
activity in winter (not to mention a lot of the equator in summer),
and do you really own _10_ complete changes of clothing? 
Is the thermal and noise insulation for your housing consistent
with sufficient ventilation to prevent ill health? How about radon
contamination? Or is radioactivity allowed to be high as long as
infant mortaility limit is not exceeded?
I note there is no life expectancy requirement, makes it easier to
satisfy ;-) - and this is the _minimum_ requirement, what is the
spread in living standards assumed?

   Reasonable nutrition, n. Diet commensurate with that available to
   primordial human populations living in areas with plentiful large-animal
   game, eg., 3k cal/day, 150 gm meat/day, "daily recommended vitamin
   and mineral/trace element allowances" whatever these turn out to be,
   In short, all four food groups available to whatever extent necessary
   to maintain the human organism at a high exercise level. No additives
   made necessary for preservation by large distances.

 Do you allow freezing or canning? Else a lot of places cannot satisfy
the diversity of nutrition you require.

   Sustainable, a. All of the above with renewable resources, no exceptions.
   Able to carry on for geologic time.

   One hurricane goes through Bangladesh and leaves a million dead on land
   not fit to live on (ie, seasonally mobile) anyway. I suppose you think
   that's sustainable.

Well, one might callously note that as it seems to happen with
depressing regularity every 20 years, and there are always a
million more there to die that in fact it is eminently sustainable...

   I challenge you to convince me this (probably incomplete) list is
   attainable with 5+ Billion humans on the earth.

Well, I note the current EC CAP requires 15% of arable land to be
taken out if production and animal cultivation to be increased in
an attempt to reduce the surpluses - I don't know of any place
that guarantees 20 years of free education to _everybody_, but
know of no inherent reason why this would not be doable.


*  Steinn Sigurdsson   			Lick Observatory      	*
* steinly@helios.ucsc.edu		"standard disclaimer"  	*
*  Ya know... you penguin types offend me. ...			*
*  My Gosh... Life is offensive!!   				*
*  Offensensitivity.		- BB 1984			*