From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Final Support-Neutral W/L Report -- NL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1992 20:34:45 GMT


Here are the final 1992 SNWL numbers.  Sometime in the near future, I'll
post a more complete final report featuring more up-to-date park effect
factors (thanks to Greg Spira), comparison to replacement level rather
than average, and a more complete listing of pitchers.



                  NL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                               for 1992

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maddux         CHI   19.6   7.4  0.726   20 11   2.28   54.3   5.81
Tewksbury      STL   16.2   7.2  0.694   15  5   2.45   39.5   4.28
Schilling      PHI   14.0   6.7  0.676   12  9   2.59   31.6   3.50
Morgan         CHI   16.4   9.4  0.636   16  8   3.00   30.8   3.31
Martinez,D     MON   14.7   8.9  0.622   16 11   2.98   25.4   2.70
Rijo           CIN   13.9   8.1  0.630   15 10   2.86   27.9   2.52
Drabek         PIT   16.0  10.7  0.600   15 11   2.95   27.6   2.45
Swift          SFG   10.4   5.1  0.671    9  3   2.36   23.9   2.52
Smoltz         ATL   16.4  11.2  0.594   15 12   3.28   23.3   2.47
Swindell       CIN   13.7   8.6  0.614   12  7   3.05   23.8   2.46
Glavine        ATL   14.9  10.0  0.599   20  8   3.24   22.3   2.50
Fernandez      NYM   13.5   8.9  0.602   14 11   2.81   23.2   2.11
Hill           MON   14.1   9.7  0.592   16  9   3.14   20.7   2.14
Leibrandt      ATL   13.3   9.7  0.580   15  7   3.68   10.2   1.88
Smith,P        ATL    5.5   2.2  0.712    7  0   2.22   15.9   1.61
Wakefield      PIT    6.4   3.3  0.662    8  1   2.54   14.0   1.47
Rivera         PHI    6.5   3.6  0.642    7  3   2.95   11.1   1.38
Portugal       HOU    6.7   4.0  0.624    5  3   2.69   12.8   1.22
Benes          SDP   13.9  11.4  0.550   13 14   3.50   10.0   1.14
Astacio        LAD    5.3   3.2  0.623    5  5   2.52   11.7   1.04



Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Bowen          HOU    0.6   6.1  0.095    0  7  12.22  -30.9  -2.59
Wilson,T       SFG    7.0  11.2  0.386    8 14   4.79  -17.9  -1.99
Martinez,R     LAD    7.2  11.2  0.391    8 11   4.90  -20.4  -1.96
Abbott         PHI    4.6   8.3  0.356    1 14   4.92  -10.8  -1.78
Young,A        NYM    2.8   6.3  0.307    1  7   5.79  -17.8  -1.69
Hershiser      LAD   10.1  13.4  0.428   10 15   4.31  -14.1  -1.75
Henry,B        HOU    8.4  11.6  0.419    6  9   4.40  -11.6  -1.47
Hammond        CIN    6.9  10.1  0.405    7 10   4.61   -8.1  -1.44
Ojeda          LAD    8.2  11.4  0.418    6  9   4.33  -11.4  -1.58
Black          SFG    8.7  11.8  0.423   10 12   4.47  -14.1  -1.47



Luckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Burkett        SFG    9.6  13.0    13  9    7.3
Glavine        ATL   14.8  10.0    20  8    7.2
Seminara       SDP    5.1   6.4     9  4    6.3
Lefferts       SDP    8.4  10.4    13  9    6.0
Hurst,B        SDP   12.3  12.2    14  9    4.8
Cone           NYM   11.2  10.0    13  7    4.8
Leibrandt      ATL   13.1   9.7    15  7    4.6
Tomlin         PIT   11.6  11.2    14  9    4.6
Osborne        STL    9.2  11.3    10  8    4.0
Smith,P        ATL    5.3   2.2     7  0    3.9



Unluckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    4.6   8.3     1 14   -9.3
Candiotti      LAD   11.7  10.6    10 15   -6.2
Gross          LAD   10.8  11.1     8 13   -4.7
Clark,M        STL    5.4   7.9     3 10   -4.5
Schilling      PHI   14.0   6.7    12  9   -4.3
Benes          SDP   13.8  11.4    13 14   -3.4
Maddux         CHI   19.6   7.4    20 11   -3.2
Carter         SFG    1.5   2.4     1  5   -3.1
Boskie         CHI    3.2   7.1     3 10   -3.1
Bullinger      CHI    2.2   4.2     1  6   -2.9



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL     69.9   49.1   0.587   67.7   72  42   3.34   3.14  10.22
CHI     63.4   50.3   0.558   61.0   59  56   3.64   3.37   6.32
MON     61.1   51.3   0.543   58.2   65  55   3.57   3.52   4.82
PIT     61.1   53.7   0.532   57.8   59  47   3.59   3.64   3.48
CIN     58.4   54.3   0.518   56.5   63  53   3.83   3.69   1.87
STL     58.8   56.0   0.512   57.5   50  51   3.91   3.84   1.20
NYM     55.9   60.2   0.481   53.9   49  59   3.87   4.09  -2.36
LAD     55.0   62.1   0.470   53.8   48  70   3.94   4.15  -3.88
SDP     54.0   61.3   0.468   51.9   57  58   4.18   4.25  -3.84
SFG     50.1   61.5   0.449   47.1   46  63   4.35   4.53  -5.69
PHI     52.2   64.6   0.447   50.0   45  64   4.47   4.33  -6.01
HOU     47.9   65.5   0.422   46.0   42  60   4.60   4.78  -8.70
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NL     687.6  689.9   0.499  661.3  655 678   3.93   3.93  -2.57


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------