From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 1992 06:23:31 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               11 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 285, 10/11/92
10.7 FLUX=110.5  90-AVG=120        SSN=090      BKI=3324 3332  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B2.7     FLU1=8.5E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2214 4443  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=021,020,012,056,038,027,029,015   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.3   @ 0209UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ 1452UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1410UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0520UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 1435UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 2205UT   BOUTF-MIN=55385NT @ 1910UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+088NT@ 1736UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-009NT@ 1122UT  G7-AVG=+069,+037,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+093NT@ 2229UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-021NT@ 1607UT  G6-AVG=+078,-010,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/015,015,025
    KFCST=1224 5221 2345 5432  27DAY-AP=009,010   27DAY-KP=2323 2232 3333 2221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=3@0211UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low today.  The only notable energetic event was a
long-decay class C8.3/SN flare from Region 7303 (S14W74) at 02:09 UT.  This
flare was accompanied by a strong Type II sweep at 02:11 UT and minor radio
emissions.

     Region 7306 (S07W30) showed minor decay today, but has managed to
retain its weak delta configuration in the intermediate spots.  Flaring from
this region diminished over the last 24 hours.  An isolated M-class flare may
still be possible from this region.

     Region 7303 experienced renewed minor growth today.  An isolated minor
M-class flare may yet be observed from this region before it rotates beyond
the west limb.

     Surging accompanied the departure of Region 7298 (N19W92).

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity should continue mostly low to moderate.  Isolated minor
M-class flares may still be supported in Regions 7306 and/or 7303.  No major
events are expected from any of the regions presently visible.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.  Mild active
periods were observed over many middle and high latitude regions throughout
the day.  Similar conditions are expected to persist through approximately 13
October.  Analysis of recurrent activity suggests an enhancement may begin to
be observed on 14 or 15 October.  However, there is no identifiable evidence
at the present time to support this episode of recurrence.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  MUFs were
depressed by as much as approximately 20 to 25 percent over some regions.
Most regions had near-normal MUFs.  Similar conditions are expected to
persist over the next 48 hours.  Minor signal degradation over the high and
polar latitude paths are likely to be observed during the local night and
early morning hours through 14 or 15 October.  Thereafter, the possibility
exists for more substantial levels of signal degradation occasionally
reaching into the middle latitude regions due to enhanced levels of
geomagnetic and auroral activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7298  N19W92  344  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7301  S16W77  329  0010 BXO  05  004 BETA
7303  S14W74  326  0180 DAO  09  007 BETA
7305  N10W53  305  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7306  S07W30  282  0140 DAO  07  016 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7307  S17E11  241  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7299  N13W80  332                    PLAGE
7300  N14W57  309                    PLAGE
7308  N09W20  272                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 OCTOBER TO 14 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7288 S17   151
7291 S05   132


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0200 0209 0229 7303  S12W60 C8.3  SN     62 86     II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/ 0208              0225       S12W60   RSP    C8.3   29  3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
61   N40E40 N26E12 N33E09 N44E24  238  ISO   POS   008 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S27 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.

**  End of Daily Report  **
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