From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 August
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 1992 05:42:35 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               16 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 229, 08/16/92
10.7 FLUX=136.6  90-AVG=126        SSN=133      BKI=2242 2102  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B3.6     FLU1=5.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2243 2222  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=010,017,051,018,015,008,004,010   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.9   @ 1358UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 1142UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.9
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 0245UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1200UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1405UT     PCA-MIN= -1.4DB @ 2110UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55262NT @ 1315UT   BOUTF-MIN=55209NT @ 1713UT  BOUTF-AVG=55247NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+104NT@ 1837UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-018NT@ 0918UT  G7-AVG=+076,+042,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 2122UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-009NT@ 0858UT  G6-AVG=+085,+005,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,140,137;SESC:145,145,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/015,020,015
    KFCST=3235 5223 4445 5322  27DAY-AP=008,011   27DAY-KP=2201 3332 1222 3432
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  No significant flares were observed
today.  The largest was a class C2.9/SF from Region 7260 (N17E15).

     Region 7260 (N17E15) experienced minor growth and a slight increase in
magnetic complexity.  Recent observations show a weak delta forming on the
southeast corner of the large leader spot.  Another weak delta also formed in
the trailer spots where new growth has occurred.  The group is still expected
to produce mostly minor C-class flares.  Whether M-class flares develop may
depend on the development which takes place near the deltas.

     Region 7262 (N17W43) increased in both size and spot count over the last
24 hours and is presently a DAO spot group approximately 50 millionths in
area.  This region was responsible for a weak C-class subflare during the
day.  Additional C-class flare activity is also possible.

     No new regions were numbered.

     Solar activity is expected to continue mostly low.  There is a slightly
increased potential for a minor M-class flare from Region 7260, although most
of the activity should remain confined to the lower C-class levels.  Region
7262 may also contribute a few minor C-class flares.

     Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet over the last 24 hours.  A
coronal hole is approaching a favorable geoeffective position.  Recurrence
suggests activity should become enhanced on 17 August, with most of the
activity occurring on 18 August.  This is not expected to be a particularly
strong disturbance, but may be sufficient to produce episodes of minor
storming over the high latitude regions.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  Conditions
should remain near-normal through most of 17 August.  Increased levels of
geomagnetic and auroral activity on 18 August are expected to degrade signal
quality on oblique paths passing through the northerly middle to polar
latitude regions.  Increased levels of fading, absorption, and multipath
activity are expected if this disturbance materializes.  However, no
significant global ionospheric degradation is expected.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7256  S15W39  310  0020 CRO  04  006 BETA
7260  N17E15  256  0820 EKO  14  037 BETA-GAMMA
7261  S24W36  307  0010 BXO  06  008 BETA
7262  N17W43  314  0050 DAO  08  014 BETA
7263  N16W33  304  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7264  N14E56  215  0030 CSO  08  004 BETA
7259  S11W64  335                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 AUGUST TO 19 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7247 N07   168
7238 S20   145


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0140 0145 0151 7261  S24W23 B8.5  SF    160
 0507 0512 0515 7260  N14E33 B9.4  SF   2400
 0628 0628 0628                          190
 0944 0944 0944                          110
 0946 0946 0946                          120
 1351 1358 1402 7260  N16E27 C2.9  SF    120
 2028 2028 2028                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
15/A1634           16/B1314      N15W39   DSF
16/A0945           16/B1118      N28E04   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   N32W16 N04W36 N04W46 N32W16  311  ISO   POS   012 10830A
49   S43E27 S43E27 S13W01 S11E07  267  ISO   NEG   017 10830A
50   N32E34 N26E26 N32E26 N32E34  262  ISO   POS   001 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **