Newsgroups: can.politics
Subject: Re: Independence is already in process
From: emd@ham.almanac.bc.ca
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 92 23:11:14 PDT
Distribution: world
Organization: Mid Island Ham Network

robinson@mdivax1.uucp (Jim Robinson) writes:

> emd@ham.almanac.bc.ca writes:
> >
> >It seems to me likely that if Quebec leaves (which also seems likely, 
> >although undesirable) that the rest of the country will break up as well 
> >in smaller chunks, most if not all of which will eventually be absorbed 
> >by the United States. It seems most likely to me that the chunks will 
> >consist of : B.C., the Prairies, Ontario, the Maritimes (NS, NB, PEI), 
> >Newfoundland/Labrador, and the North (The territories, plus parts of 
> >what is now Northern Ontario and Quebec). 
> 
> A number of political commentators predict this absorption-by-the-US
> scenario should Quebec leave Canada. What none of them seem to mention is
> what forces will be at work to bring this about. I have yet to speak to a
> Canadian who wants to see Canada join the US. I suspect that percentage of
> such Canadians is in the single digits. As well, why should CSQ not remain
> together? It should be readily obvious to most if not all that there is
> strength in numbers. Sure BC could probably go it alone (and suffer a drop
> in standard of living), but why would it want to? What is the benefit to be
> had? I have a very hard time accepting this prediction when nobody seems
> to be able to explain the rationale behind it. Want to take a shot at it,
> Robert?
> -- 
> Jim Robinson
> robinson@mdd.comm.mot.com
> {ubc-cs!van-bc,uunet}!mdivax1!robinson
> 

Well, to start with, Jim, I take a long term view of this. As in 50-100 
years. I don't think it likely at this time that, for example, B.C. would 
decide to secede and apply to join the USA. There are trends to notice, 
however.

As long as we remain a complete country (with Quebec), I think it 
unlikely that any other area will want to secede - whether to become 
independent or join the USA. If, however, Quebec secedes, other areas 
will be much more likely to ask "what's in it for me?" and to consider 
leaving as an available option. 

In my view, Canadians as a whole are getting more and more selfish, and 
less and less likely to be willing to make contributions "for the good of 
the country". They are increasingly distrustful of elected politicians, 
governments, or any "authority" figures - by which I mean "professionals" 
who tell us what to do. In other words, they are much less likely to 
defer to anyone in authority, and they are much more inclined to tell 
anybody (everybody ?) to go take a flying leap if they want to do 
anything that will cost them money.

Our cultural differences with the Americans are being constantly eroded 
as we are bombarded with American TV, movies, magazines, music and 
attitudes. Over time, the number of Canadians who see us as culturally 
distinct from the Yanks will continue to diminish. Once you can't see the 
difference (Especially if we give away control over ourselves in NAFTA) 
it will certainly be harder to keep us apart.

If the province of Quebec, or at least a sizable portion of it is removed 
from the nation of Canada, it won't be done quietly, or with "good will". 
It will be acrimonius as hell, and we're just as likely to get into a 
bloody punch-up. 

The breakup of Canada will be extremely costly. Even if we could separate 
Quebec peacefully - which is by no means certain - the costs of 
realigning all the government services are going to be staggering. The 
value of the Canadian dollar will drop substantially as the international 
money markets react to the breakup. Our credit ratings will drop. Our 
interest rates will go up, to try to attract investment. The interest 
rates will drive up business failures and unemployment. Canadians will go 
into a "survival" mode, and look out for themselves - to heck with the 
other guy just like the cross-border shoppers do now.

The breakup of Canada will put enormous strains on already weakened ties
between the Maritimes and Canada (I know the Maritimes is in Canada, but 
if you go there, people talk about here - meaning the Maritimes and over 
there - meaning Canada - somewhere off to the west), and also between the 
West and Ontario. 

As their market shrinks, (with Quebec gone), and their transportation 
costs up, and interest rates through the roof, Ontario manufacturers will 
become ever less competitive with their American counterparts, 
especially when the US makers are often closer to the market, especially 
in the Maritimes and the West. 

Over time, it will become increasingly difficult both to finance and 
maintain political support for the subsidies necessary to maintain the 
Maritime provinces. Ontario and the West will resent the cost, and the 
Maritimes will resent being "kept". As the level of support drops off, we 
will increasingly become a country of haves and have nots. The haves will 
be BC, Alberta and Ontario. Everybody else will be a have not. Sooner or 
later, either what's left of Canada will decide it can't really afford to 
keep up the Maritimes and cut them adrift, or the Maritimes will try to 
get a better deal by joining the USA. 

In the West, the traditional resentment of Ontario will grow. People will 
be less and less willing to stay in Canada if it means higher costs, and 
even more control of the country by Ontario. (For example, in the HOC, 
Ontario would represent a third of the population, instead of a quarter)
giving them even more influence. 

Of all the provinces, B.C. is one of the most likely to be able to 
survive on it's own. It has sizable quantities of stuff people want, and 
sufficient oil, gas, and hydro-electric resources to be energy 
independent. In fact, I think it more likely that B.C. would become 
independent than that it would want to join the US. In time though, who 
knows? Especially as the Americans become ever more hungry for our water 
and other resources as theirs are depleted. Anyone want to make odds on
what it would take for them to take the resouces if they really wanted 
them? 


I guess for me, Jim the thing is that as long as Quebec stays in Canada, 
it's unlikely the rest of Canada would fall apart. But if Quebec goes, 
all bets are off, and we will be opening a Pandora's box of regional 
jealousies and emotions. We're not going to be able to put the genie back 
into the bottle, and people will consider all kinds of options they would 
NOT have before. 

I hope, in saying all this, that a; Quebec does not secede, and b; if it 
does, that none of the possible scenarios described above occurs. The 
only way to find out is to wait another 50 years.


emd@ham.almanac.bc.ca (Robert Smits Ladysmith BC)