From: sehari@iastate.edu (Babak Sehari)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.iranian
Subject: TURKEY SEES CLINTON'S ALLEGED "PROTECTIONISM" AS NOT ALL GLOOM
Date: 12 Nov 92 04:46:31 GMT
Organization: Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.
Originator: sehari@class1.iastate.edu

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TURKEY SEES CLINTON'S ALLEGED "PROTECTIONISM" AS NOT ALL GLOOM

ISTANBUL, (NOV. 9) IPS - While some Turks think Bill Clinton's rise to power
may have some adverse effects on aid to Turkey others view his reputed
protectionist stance as being potentially good for business especially in world
markets. 

Though few expect that the banner of "transformation" under which Clinton has
waged his campaign will have any short-term consequences on the vital themes of
Turkish politics like human rights, the Kurdish issue or the prospects of
military and economic assistance, nevertheless in the longer run businessmen
are hopeful. 

The improvement Clinton promises for the U.S. economy may actually prove
beneficial to the Turkish economy. As for the issue of "protectionism" which is
on Clinton's agenda, Turkish businessmen feel that they should explain the
special position of Turkey to the new president. 

This will require an urgent renewal of links with the new administration. The
fact that both President Turgut Ozal and Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel
supported bush during the U.S. election campaign is another factor to be
overcome quickly. 

"Clinton may ignite the fuse which will lead the world economy out of its
present crisis. He will be more conservative towards the EC and Japan compared
to the outgoing president," the former director of the Turkish-American
Business Council Sedat Aloglu said. 

It is not only the possible rise in the total volume of world trade which will
have a beneficial impact on Turkey. As the American construction firms
concentrate their energies on internal markets, in accord with the new
president's policies, Turkish firms will get a new chance in the world markets
to fill up the vacuum left by them. 

As a result Aloglu is confident that Clinton's protectionism will have no
adverse effects on Turkey. "We are not able to fulfill our present quotas
anyway. All we have to do is go on trying to defend textiles quotas granted for
Turkey within the American market." 

However, one expert believes that such conservative policies may decrease the
volume of Turkish exports into the U.S. economist Mustafa Sonmez points at the
necessity for searching for new markets. 

But he believes his country may occupy a special position on the new
president's horizon because "Turkey is important both for the United States and
Europe owing to its special link to the Turkic republics. Just about everybody
is dreaming controlling these Central Asian republics through Turkey." 

The director of the association of Turkish clothing industrialists, Mahmut
Abra, is more concerned about the impact of the new protectionist policies on
the world trade as a whole. 

In the short term these policies will not influence Turkish- American
relations. However, they will push the GATT talks into a dead-end and will act
as a barrier against the liberalization of the world trade," he adds. 

Mahmut Abra emphasizes the significance of the 100 percent rise in the quotas
for Turkey. "Nevertheless it is our own problem to prepare for the necessary
structural adaptations to make full use of this opportunity." 

United States goods make up 10.6 percent of total imports into Turkey; whereas
only five percent of Turkey's export are directed to the U.S. The exports
consist mainly of textiles, while most of what is imported is machine goods. 

Between 1989 and 1991 the total value of imports from the United States to
Turkey rose from $1.519 billion to $2.240 billion. Exports from Turkey to the
United States rose from $760 million to $913 million. Germany, on the other
hand, ranks as Turkey's first partner both in terms of import and export. 

Atilla Uras, a member of the executive board of the Bank of Marmara, is
optimistic concerning the future of American economy, since there are signs
that it is already on the way to recovering from the recession. This would lead
to a stronger dollar and a higher volume of American imports: one of the main
sources of pessimism is Clinton's stand on human rights. This leads many to
expect a reduction in the military and economic aid. 

The political attache of the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul, James B. Bond, did not
allay these fears. "Should there be a reduction in foreign aid, this will be
directed not only at Turkey, but to the whole world. For the American economy
cannot go on carrying the weight of foreign aid at the level it has in the
past," he said. 



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Newsgroups: soc.culture.iranian