From: lockhart@mothra.nts.uci.edu (Jack C. Lockhart)
Subject: Re: Earthquake forecasting?
Summary: Keep an open mind
Newsgroups: ca.earthquakes,sci.geo.geology,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave
Organization: University of California, Irvine
Keywords: Earthquake monitoring, Earthquake forecasting, EM pre-cursors
Date: 27 Jul 92 18:51:32 GMT
Followup-To: ca.earthquakes,sci.geo.geology

In article <6FgJoB6w165w@hacktic.nl> bill@hacktic.nl (Bill Squire) writes:
>
>The post by Jack C. Lockhart of UC Irvine on the observed shifts on AM
>radio has me a little puzzled. 

Bill,

Your reply to my post gave me mixed messages.  Some of your comments
are cruel.  Your flame should have been sent directly to me via e-mail.

>If this is a joke, then I'm a sucker, if its not a joke, I'm a real sucker, 

My post was not a joke!  I believe the article is for real.  I believe
the research has merit.  People who continue on with this research may
be on to something.  I am not the author.  I telephoned the author in
Missouri and publisher in Wisconsin and asked for permission to
retyped the article; and posted it to Usenet.  I do not have doubts
about the sanity of Mr.Cole and Mr. Knitter.

>(it wasn't fun being almost on top of it at the time, but as an
>afterthought I REALLY enjoyed it since almost no one got hurt and damage
>was very little)

>Oh yea, just before I left California (a little after the nice ride from
>the Santa Cruz mountains)  I heard an interesting report about signals in
>the one hertz range going through great fluctuations just before that fun
>quake.                                                                ^^^

Whoa there!  "THE QUAKE IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS" - the Loma Prieta
Quake a "FUN QUAKE" ?????  Time for a reality check!  Your incorrect if
you think no one got hurt from the Loma Prieta Quake in the Santa Cruz
mountains.  If memory serves 63 people lost their lives; damage was
widespread and ran in the millions of dollars.  I don't call that a
"FUN" quake.

>The above should be a nice summer project and a way for the otherwise bored
>UC students to drink beer and do something very productive, that may even
>save lives in the future!

I am *NOT* a student at the University of California, Irvine and I do
NOT NOT NOT NOT drink alcohol.  I am a staff employee in the Office of
Academic Computing, Network & Telecommunications Services and my title
is 'Radio Systems Engineer'.

>
>
>                                                        Bill


There has been research on the subject of EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING and
MONITORING FOR EARTHQUAKES.  A summary is attached.

MONITORING FOR EARTHQUAKES

Vince T. Migliore

Earthquakes are sometimes preceded by and linked with curious
electromagnetic signals in the lowest frequency ranges.  These signals
can be detected using equipment found in many ham radio sources.  If
you are interested in participating in experiments that may be able to
detect seismic signals and even earthquake precursors, then read on.

A growing body of scientific evidence now points toward the
possibility of predicting major seismic events based on low frequency
transients.  Probably the most widely known investigation was
conducted by a team headed by Anthony Fraser-Smith of Stanford Star
Lab.  This study found distinctive patterns in the 0.05 to 10 Hertz
range (yes, Hertz, not kHz.).  The Fraser-Smith study was based on
experiments conducted in the Soviet Union, which in turn grew out of
folklore from China and Japan.  Joe Tate and William Daily found
anomalies in the 1 to 10 kHz range, while other experimenters report
signals up to 100 kHz.  Among amateur radio operators there are many
anecdotal incidents of earthquake transients all the way up to the HF
range.

Although there are several segments of the electromagnetic spectrum
where earthquake anomalies have been detected, not all of them have
been verified by scientific experiments.  This provides a unique
opportunity for amateurs to make some really significant contributions
to science.  The frequencies to look at are:

1.  The 0.01 to 12 Hertz range.  Joe Tate, and Anthony Fraser-Smith
have done successful research in this range, but it can be extremely
difficult and expensive.  The Schumann resonances come into play,
man-made interference is a problem and specialized digital equipment
may be necessary.  On the other hand, several professional
investigators agree that this range is productive for seismic
transients.  Magnetic transients in this range look very promising.

2.  The audio range portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, 200 to
15kHz. Several experimenters have been monitoring this range, and some
report distinctive thumping sounds prior to earthquakes, especially
between 8 and 12 kHz.  A Japanese study claims to have detected quake
signals in this range.  Recently, two investigators reported an
unusual hissing sound in this range prior to the recent quakes in
California.

3.  In the 30kHz to 150kHz range there are reports of paradoxical
drops in background noise, increases in noise and static and sudden
bursts of energy lasting several seconds.

The problem with earthquake monitoring is that seismic events in any
one particular location are extremely rare.  On the other hand, it may
be possible to detect earthquake related transients quite far from the
epicenter.  Further, even a small number of experimenters, with
automated recording devices, will be capable of monitoring over long
time intervals, and this increases our chances of capturing important
events.

What to listen for: In the audio range, listen for hissing, thumping
or rumbling sounds that last for over 1 second.  If you can leave the
receiver tuned to the same frequency, listen for dramatic increases or
decreases in the noise level, especially those that last for more than
a few hours. You will soon realize that real time monitoring is not
very efficient, so look to driving a strip chart recorder, or even
sampling to a computer.  If you decide to interface to a computer,
you'll need an analog to digital (A-D) converter, but these are now
available as add-in cards for many computers, some under $100.

Geophysicists that I've spoken with are at a loss to explain any
mechanism that might account for electromagnetic and magnetic
disturbances, but some theories are the piezo-electric effect of
crushing and bending of quartz-containing rock in the earth's crust,
the flow of magma beneath the crust that may contain varying amounts
of metals, and the interaction of the earth's magnetic field with the
solar wind.  None of these models however is fully satisfactory.  By
organizing a good sized network of amateur monitors, we may be able to
shed some light on this exciting new science.

Geo-Monitor is dedicated to earthquake prediction, amateur
geo-physical monitoring and earth mysteries.  In addition to ULF
monitoring, we are looking at solar activity, lost pets and changes in
HF propagation.  If you want to participate in on-going experiments
(or just to share ideas) please write to me.  For a sample issue,
please send $2.00 to Editor, Geo-Monitor, Suite 400, 65 Washington
Street, Santa Clara, CA 95050.


References


1.  Radio Earth: The Radio-Seismic Connection.  Joe Tate, Whole Earth
Review, Fall, 1990.

2.  Sferics: A Beginner's Guide to Whistlers, Tweeks and Other Natural
Radio Sounds and how to hear them.  Mike Mideke, Whole Earth Review,
Fall, 1990 .

3.  Build the 'Whistler' VLF Receiver.  Tom Fox, Popular Electronics,
July, 1989.

4.  Amateur VLF Observations.  W.C. Johnson, QST magazine, March,
1960.

5.  ULF, ELF and VLF Electromagnetic Field Observations Close to the
Epicenter of the 7.1 Loma Prieta Earthquake: Possible ULF Precursors.
A.C. Fraser-Smith, A. Bernardi, P.R. McGill, M.E. Ladd, R.A. Heliwell,
and O.G. Villard, Jr., STAR Laboratory, Stanford University.

~jack_

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
|         Jack C. Lockhart         < SNAILMAIL                               |
|      Radio Systems Engineer         E-MAIL  > LOCKHART@uci.edu             |
|    Network & Telecomm Services     ! BANG ! > ...uunet!usc!uci.edu!lockhart|
|    2209 Central Plant Building      VOICE   > (714) 856-8477               |
| University of California, Irvine     FAX    > (714) 725-2270               |
|      Irvine, CA  92717-5475          HAM    > WD6AEI                       |
|              U.S.A.              COMP. PHONE> (714) 725-2238               |
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/
/     o o o o o o o . . .   ________________________________ _____=======____\_
    o      _____            |                              | |               |
  .][__n_n_|DD[  ====_____  |                              | |               |
 >(________|__|_[_________]_|______________________________|_|_______________|_
 _/oo OOOOO oo`  ooo   ooo  'o^o^o                    o^o^o` 'o^o         o^o`
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/