From: jrm@gnv.ifas.ufl.edu
Newsgroups: alt.consciousness,talk.origins
Subject: Re: Next?
Date: 28 Dec 92 18:09:22 -0500

In article <1992Dec27.025046.27077@mnemosyne.cs.du.edu>, gbloom@nyx.cs.du.edu (Gregory Bloom) writes:
> 
> [lots-o-scenarios omitted...]
> 
> The important point to consider in asking 'what next?' is that evolution
> has made the jump from an externally directed program (lightning, disease,
> predation, warfare, etc.) to an internally directed one.  Intelligence
> is no longer the by-product of haphazard forces - it is now a desirable
> product.  As we develop the tools for manipulating the matter which is used
> in the expression of intelligence, we amplify the ability of intelligence
> to shape itself into whatever it desires.  Homo Sapiens is merely the
> most recent ripple on the expanding wavefront of intelligence.  

	I think you have hit the proverbial nail right on the head.
	From this point on, human evolution is going to be controlled
	by humans (plus or minus for error & drift) rather than by
	the physical environment. By the time they are done dealing
	with AIDs, the accumulated knowledge in molecular genetics
	will be sufficient to allow a number of intelligence
	enhancements (and physical enhancements as well). 

	Intelligence seems to form a positive-feedback situation
	once it reaches a certian level. The smarter you become,
	the easier it is to discover the means to becoming even
	smarter. We have already invented computers capable of
	remembering the volumes of info necessary, retrieving
	it in a useful form and testing hypotheses via simulation.
	Through this tool, we have essentially increased our
	intelligence. The next step will be to make direct
	modifications to the way our brains work - and I still
	think the single most useful enhancement would be to
	improve memory storage/retrieval/fidelity. 

	Humans are good at some aspects of intelligence but not
	at others. Evolutionary priority I suspect. Little in
	the natural environment requires us to be good at
	mathematics - yet math is indisputedly going to be
	among the most valuable skills in the immediate
	future. We need to be able to fabricate and solve
	complex math equations just as easily as we do for
	general language now. Memory enhancement will help
	along this line, but I doubt that there is a nice
	easy 'math gene' we can tweak. To this end, we are
	going to have to integrate machine elements into our
	brains. 

	These 'machine elements' will probably not be silicon, but
	instead circuitry made of neurons. There is a fair chance
	that these man-made elements can even be tacked-on to the
	genome - so they will grow in place naturally and connect to
	the right spots in the brain. A whole slew of special
	skills could be added in this manner. The single hardest
	thing to enhance though may be ones 'general' 
	intelligence --- the ability to deal with and make best
	use of all these enhancements. This will come, just
	more slowly. 

	Some people seem keen on 'group intelligence'. To some
	extent, that's what we are doing here on the net. The
	important aspect is that I can disconnect at will. 
	Schemes requiring involuntary linkages are an invitiation
	to terrible abuse. 

	Non-human intelligences, computers proper, will also
	evolve - first because of and for we humans. Eventually
	they may fend for themselves. Because of the vast
	differences in evolution, environment and design, I can't
	see machine AI as having all that much in common with
	the natural product. We should eventually drift away
	from each other to fill different niches in the spectrum
	of consciousness. Competition ? Maybe, but not necessarily.

	The human of 500 years hence will be much like the human
	of today - insofar as temperment and passions go. They
	will simply have more skills and access to far more
	knowledge. Some cultural aspects will have to change
	though - witness the current eye-for-an-eye cultures
	running from Algeria thru Iran, Pakistan & India that
	are now aquiring nuclear weapons. They have long since
	lost count of those eyes and can't remember who plucked
	the first one - yet their cultural imperitives demand
	total revenge. Access to the power knowledge provides	
	without some changes in ones thinking can (and will
	in this example) lead to disasters.

	Lastly, ask any engineer ... positive feedback loops
	can be destructive, whether in electronics, mechanical
	design or (probably) intelligence. If all necessary
	elements do not advance reasonably in step I suspect
	that problems may arise. Also, if intelligence is,
	as some suggest, an "emergent behavior" of our mass
	of neurons - sort of a chaotic 'attractor' - know
	that a push in the wrong spot could erase this 
	pattern. We should be optimistic about our future,
	but not to the point of recklessness. 

	Oh yes, I vote a 95% chance that MARKET FORCES and
	FASHION TRENDS will be the driving force behind the
	genetic mind & body modifications - not government
	or the military or cabals of evil scientists.
	Smarter pays better, and good looks and a robust
	physique enhance ones enjoyment of life. 

-- Jim Mason 
Xref: sparky alt.consciousness:792 talk.origins:15834 talk.religion.misc:24342