From: tgray@igc.apc.org (Tom Gray)
Newsgroups: alt.society.futures
Subject: --Energy and Sustainability
Date: 29 Dec 92 20:51:00 GMT
Nf-ID: #N:cdp:1528300001:000:8181
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!tgray    Dec 29 12:51:00 1992


/* Written  5:17 am  Aug 20, 1992 by tgray@igc.apc.org in igc:en.energy */
ENERGY SUPPLY IS KEY PROBLEM FOR
SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, EXPERT SAYS
 
The current system of global energy production and consumption must
undergo significant change if humanity is to achieve a sustainable
society in the future, according to Professor John Holdren of the
University of California-Berkeley.
 
Holdren spoke on "Energy, Environment and Sustainability" at a
seminar May 2 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H.  The event
marked the 20th anniversary of the publication of Limits to Growth,
a book by global experts of an organization called the Club of
Rome.  Limits to Growth was highly controversial when published and
launched a debate that continues today about global resources and
their ability to meet rising human demands.
 
Energy is central to the problem of designing a human society that
is sustainable in the long run, Holdren said in a wide-ranging talk
that emphasized the need to increase energy efficiency and the use
of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
 
Energy, he said, has been characterized by three difficulties:
 
o    Historically, there has been too little of it to meet basic
     needs for all.
 
o    At times, it has also been too costly, leading to reductions
     in the standard of living, recession and an increase in debt.
 
o    It's too risky, posing dangers to human health and the
     environment and leading to political instability because of
     the uneven distribution of energy resources (e.g., large
     amounts of world oil reserves being concentrated in the Middle
     East).
 
Current world industrial energy supply is more than three-quarters
(77 percent) dependent on fossil fuels, Holdren said.  Of a global
supply of 11.7 Terawatts (average) (TWa) (trillion watts), 4.5 TWa
comes from oil, 3.2 TWa from coal, and 2.5 TWa from natural gas --
all fossil fuels -- while hydro supplies 0.8 TWa and nuclear 0.7
TWa.
The world will not run out of fossil fuels any time soon, he added,
since known reserves still will last hundreds of years.  "But we
are running out of other things, including: cheap oil and gas;
cheap hydropower; the absorptive capacity of our natural
environment; the tolerance of the world's poor for the current
inequity in supply; money to fund the development of alternative
energy technologies; time to adjust; and resolve to act."
 
The world's energy supply system, Holdren said, is just too large
in scale for rapid change:  "This is an industry with $8-9 trillion
worth of installed production capacity.  Changing it is going to be
like steering a supertanker -- it will take time, and respond
slowly."  At the same time, he said, energy policymakers are
paralyzed.  While there is talk of using market mechanisms to deal
with problems, "we haven't had a properly functioning energy market
for the last 100 years -- instead, we have a terribly complicated
system of subsidies and tax breaks that distort decisions."
 
Of the series of problems facing the world in the energy area
today, Holdren said, environmental degradation is the "most
intractable," with the composition of the atmosphere, climate
processes, water supply, soils, and biological diversity all being
affected by energy.
 
"A hundred years ago, you could say most human activity was still
on a small scale compared with natural processes, but that is no
longer the case.  Humans have become a global chemical force."
 
Holdren identified a number of chemical processes in which human
actions now have reached a scale roughly comparable to nature,
including:
 
 
o    Atmospheric lead flow:  human contribution is 15 times that
     from natural processes, with 63 percent of it coming from
     energy production-related activities.
 
o    Ocean oil flow:  human contribution 10 times natural, with 60
     percent coming from energy production.
 
o    Cadmium:  human contribution eight times natural, with 20
     percent coming from energy.
 
o    Sulfur oxides:  human contribution 1.5 times natural, with 85
     percent from energy.
 
o    Methane (a leading greenhouse gas):  human contribution
     roughly equal to natural, with 25 percent from energy.
 
o    Carbon dioxide (the most important greenhouse gas): human
     contribution 3/10 of natural, with 80 percent from energy.
 
During the past 20 years alone, Holdren noted, the world's
population has increased by 45 percent, and its total energy
production has risen by 90 percent.  At the same time, a variety of
environmental problems, ranging from acid rain to a rising rate of
species extinction, have become apparent.
 
What are the main elements of a global energy policy to address
these problems?  According to Holdren, they are:
 
o    Increase efficiency of end use.  U.S. energy use per capita,
     he said, should be cut by at least 50 percent.
 
o    Reduce the environmental impacts of today's energy sources
     through better pollution control, nuclear safety, and biomass
     harvesting techniques.
 
o    Begin the transition to alternative energy sources, including
     fusion, geothermal, solar and wind.
 
o    Expand international cooperation and assistance.  "We may
     solve these problems in the U.S. and Europe without
     international cooperation, but we won't solve them in India,
     China and the former Soviet Union."
 
o    Stop world population growth at a level of 10 billion.  "This
     is going to be tough.  The average woman today has 3.5
     children, and we'll need to reduce that to 2.1 by the year
     2025 to reach this goal."
 
What difference could a strong effort to put these policies into
effect make during the next 100 years?
 
o    World population would be held to 10 billion instead of a
     projected business-as-usual (BAU) level of 13.4 billion by the
     year 2090, a 25 percent reduction.
 
o    World energy use would be held to 30 TWa (about three times
     today's consumption), a reduction of 70 percent below a BAU
     level of 100 TWa (nearly nine times current use).  (At the
     same time, global per-capita energy use would be stabilized at
     3 kW/person, or about one-fourth of present U.S. usage per
     person.)
 
o    World fossil energy use would be reduced to 5 TWa (about half
     the current level), a reduction of more than 90 percent from
     the BAU scenario level of 60 TWa (six times present
     consumption).
 
The problem is "worse than economists and politicians think,"
Holdren said, because of several ways in which the real world
differs from what they assume:  humanity is more dependent on the
environment; the environment is more easily damaged; the growth in
human needs is greater; the forces of the market are less powerful
(unless noneconomic costs are taken into account); and the time
lags in diagnosing problems are greater.
 
Because decisionmakers are off base in their assumptions, he added,
the U.S. is today underinvesting in energy efficiency and new
sources of energy, and is "sabotaging" efforts to reach an
international agreement to guard against the possibility of climate
change.

===============================

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*******************************************************************
Tom Gray                                 EcoNet/PeaceNet: tgray@igc
Internet/Bitnet: tgray@igc.apc.org            UUCP: uunet!cdp!tgray