From: mwilson@ncratl.AtlantaGA.NCR.COM (Mark Wilson)
Newsgroups: sci.energy
Subject: Re: Electric Vehicle
Date: 16 Dec 92 17:20:09 GMT
Organization: NCR Engineering and Manufacturing Atlanta -- Atlanta, GA

In <1992Dec15.192918.1@vax.sonoma.edu> oberland@vax.sonoma.edu writes:

|At 5K a year, I am going to need replacement of those Ni-H in lessee...
|about 8-10 YEARS!  Looks like I don't need to worry about replacement.
|PERIOD.  So, my only cost would be the up-front cost.  EVEN if electricity
|cost DOUBLES and gas goes to 2.00 a gallon(it is 1.35 right now), I figured
|the following out:

You figure on replacing the entire car after only 40K miles.  If you want to
do that as a comparison, you can also figure on disregarding all of those
expensive repairs to the IC car.  The odds of anything breaking in the first
40K are very, very low.  In fact I think it is GM that now offers a 50K
warranty.  Granted it doesn't cover everything, but it does cover a lot.

|6-10K more for the EV(why, I don't know, as the thing is simpler, and has less
|materials-I figure the batteries cost 20K)-this is WAYYYY to high, considering
|that such a vehicle would be available in 3-4 years, and Hi-H prices will be
|MUCCCCH less by then.

This appears to be mostly wishfull thinking.
Why do you think an extra 6-10K is to much for an EV.  The only thing that
is simpler is the engine and transmission.  Everything else is the same.
You can get a new engine and transmission for most cars for 1K to 2k, (not
including labor).  Do you have any idea how much an electric motor big
enough to power a car would cost?  Then you still have to buy the batteries.
Why do you think 20K is to
much for batteries.  Do you know what it costs to make them?

|200miles in avg commuter car would take 5 gallons of gas.  multiply times 
|250 for 50K miles*2/gallon=2500 dollars for gas.  Recharging my EV would
|not cost anywhere NEAR 10 dollars for 200 miles.

I beleive you are being very optimistic with your figures here.  Someone on
the net calculated that you need several KwH to drive your car a mile
at 60MPH.  At 10 cents per KwH this would add up very quickly.

|I figure a conservative 1000-1500 dollars less to run and operate for 50K
|miles.

Your conservative figures are optimistic by probably an order of magnitude.

|figure in oil changes, clutch job, muffler,tuneups, and simmilar, and

Lets see, after 50K miles, you will have changed the oil 10 times, ($50 to
$100 depending on wether you do it yourself)  way to early for a clutch
job, the muffler is in great shape and the car is still in tune.  Your
imagined savings are evaporating rapidly.

|the costs just about even out(8-10years maint). If there is a 2-4K difference,
|I would gladly pay it up front, as I can finance it over 10 years if need 
|be(along with the car)
|My monthly costs and repair costs would be much less with an EV

This is of course assumed and not documented.

|It is a LOT easier to figure in 4-6K replacement cost 6-10 yrs. down the line,
|than it is to keep paying 1-2K a year for "routine maintenence", at times when

If you are paying $1K to $2K per year for routine maintenance, I suggest you
get a new mechanic, as you are being ripped off big time.  At 5K miles per
year, the only regular maintanence should be one oil change.

|you CAN'T budget it.  AS for the comment about investing the extra money,
|GET REAL.  Almost everyone finances their car, so having the extra money lying
|around to invest is just not going to happen.  Also, that money IF it were
|invested would most likely go for other things("..well, gee.. the car hasn't
|had any problems so far, and a new Computer would be nice...).  

Not everyone is as irresponsible as you.

|As for replacing the batteries, IF I need to replace them, I can either get
|the same thing that was originally in the car(but now 10 YEAR old technology)
|or I can get new ones that give me double the range, if not more.
|Replacing them ten years down the road(or even 5) will cost little compared
|to their original cost.

More assumptions out of thin air.  Please document these miracle batteries
of yours.

|Someone commented about Ni-Cads costing 10K+ and Ni-H going for 30K+.
|By the time I need to replace those Ni-H(a LONNNNG time), I need only
|pay a fraction of that price.  Look at Ni-cads:5 years ago, they cost much
|more.

Which shows that Ni-cads are already well down the learning curve, how much
further do you think they can push it.

consider this: I can get a D-cell NiCad for about 2 dollars, most of
|which is packaging and casing that is 1.2v@4-5AH.

Do you know this for a fact.  I suspect the package and casing come to only
pennies per battery.

|I figure NI-Cads will cost a LOT less to replace because they will NOT
|be individual cells, either, but larger batteries.

Please document.

|As for lead-acid, WHY bother?  The Ni-H that come with the car should last
|me twice as long(or more) than Ni-Cad(# of charges), have no "memory problem",
|and can store almost twice the current.  Looks like 4* the life of Ni-Cad to me.
|I shouldn't have to replace the batteries.  In 3-4 years it will take the EV's
|to start to appear, the price of Ni-H will drop to just above Ni-Cads, and
|possibly elliminate them altogether.

|I also have not factored in the cost of the pollution I don't create.  I create
|some, but much less than a normal vehicle, AND it is not going to cause smog or
|other crap in my local environment.

You are just going to cause smog and other crap in someone else's environment.
Others on the net have done the calculations (sorry I didn't save them, I wil
next time) that showed that depending on the source of your electricity, EV's\
can be even more polluting than IC cars.

|(Geo-thermal, wind and Nuclear are primary sources of electricity here)

Fine for you, what are the rest of us going to use.  Unless you want to help
shepard the licensing of more nuclear plants through all of the environmental
road blocks.

The number of locations that can use geo-thermal and wind energy, are quite
limited.

|My EV is being powered by turbines at near 90%+ efficency, vs my current car
|which uses a dirtier source of fuel at a MAX of 20-24%.  NO WAY a EV pollutes
|more, or even the same.

You are comparing apples and oranges here.  (I am not familiar with any
turbine that converts 90% of wind power.)  For ordinary people, you have
to look at the electricity conversion losses from the plant to the battery.
This include transmission losses (can be significant over long runs),
the efficiency of your battery charger, (can be up to 95% if you spend a lot,
but 85% to 90% is more typical) there are also losses within the battery
during charging (touch one while it is charging, does it feel warm to you,
all of that heat is wasted energy).

During discharge the batteries heat up again, more wasted energy, plus your
motor is not 100% effiecient.

It sounds to me that you are grossly exaggerating the problems with IC engines,
and totally ignoring the problems with EV's.
-- 
Mob rule doesn't become any prettier, just because the mob start to call itself
a government.
It ain't charity if you are using someone else's money.
Mark.Wilson@AtlantaGA.NCR.com