From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 1993 19:18:48 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                23 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 023, 01/23/93
10.7 FLUX=106    90-AVG=140        SSN=047      BKI=2100 0012  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=1.3E+05  FLU10=9.4E+03  PKI=2000 0011  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=015,006,004,003,004,004,006,015   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.3   @ 1236UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 1907UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2040UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0840UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2230UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0910UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 0011UT   BOUTF-MIN=55390NT @ 1945UT  BOUTF-AVG=55408NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+118NT@ 2111UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 1005UT  G7-AVG=+083,+025,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 2110UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-011NT@ 2152UT  G6-AVG=+099,-000,+034
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,015/005,013,020
    KFCST=1111 1113 3311 1111  27DAY-AP=003,005   27DAY-KP=0012 1210 0011 0123
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on the
       disk were stable and quiet. A 10 degree filament near N26W29
       disappeared between 0444Z and 0635Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for day one. A brief increase late
       on day one and early on day two is anticipated in response
       to a longitudinally narrow coronal hole. An additional in-
       crease is expected sometime on the third day in response
       another coronal hole which will be favorably positioned at
       that time.

            Event probabilities 24 jan-26 jan

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 jan-26 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           20/10/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Signals that crossed into the high latitude zones
       experienced poor signal quality during the night and early
       morning sectors (between 12:00 and 18:00 UT) due to a brief
       period of enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity.
       Conditions are expected to be near-normal on 24 January.
       Gradual deterioration is expected thereafter as coronal holes
       begin to elevate levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.
       High and polar latitude paths should be affected the most, with
       some fair to occasionally poor propagation possible over the
       upper middle latitude paths during the local night sectors
       (particularly on 26 January).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7401  S13W57  018  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7403  N15W37  358  0160 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7406  S14E13  308  0050 CAO  05  004 BETA
7407  S06E46  275  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7402  S25W62  023                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 JANUARY TO 26 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
23/B0444             A0635       N26W29   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
82   S30E02 S40W07 S15W23 S05W13  342  ISO   POS   018 10830A
83   N26E17 S02E01 N18W13 N35E07  329  ISO   POS   022 10830A
84   S26E67 S35E52 S22E28 S22E28  284  ISO   NEG   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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