From: jpalmer@uwovax.uwo.ca (The Econoclast)
Subject: ACPAC repost - The early favourites
Organization: University of Western Ont, London
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 13:56:06 GMT

	This is a repost, announcing the second annual 
Acker-Cook Pitch-Alike Contest, abbreviated ACPAC. If you wish to
enter the contest, please use the entry form near the end of this
posting. If you wish to re-enter the contest, feel free. We will use
your most recent entry.


HISTORY:

     The contest has been named for two pitchers who in recent years 
developed a reputation for yielding large numbers of home runs during 
the season yet who somehow had the staying power to have lasted at 
least 80 innings during that season.

     In 1991, Jim Acker amazed the baseball world, coming on in relief
for the Blue Jays and giving up a window shot to Jose Canseco with the
bases loaded. In his honour, the first year of the contest was named
the Jim Acker Pitch Alike Contest, JAckPAC.

     In 1992, Acker continued his home run tendencies, yielding a home
run to none other than Jays non-power-hitting shortstop, Manuel Lee. But
alas, Acker was unable to maintain the staying power he had
demonstrated so clearly earlier in his career, and he failed to
qualify for the 1992 award, pitching only 30 and 2/3 innings for the
Seattle Mariners during the entire season.

	The 1992 season saw both Denis Boucher and Scott Aldred give
up much higher HR/9ip ratios than Acker did. These two pitchers were
both favourites of many net.personalities, but neither one amassed
enough ip to qualify for the award. And Joe Slusarsky came close, but
he, too, would have needed a manager like Cito to get the requisite 
ip to qualify.

	Cleveland's Dennis Cook won the 1992 award. He gave up 29 HR
in 158 ip, for a HR/9ip ratio of 1.652. In his honour, we have renamed
the contest for 1993, the Acker-Cook Pitch-Alike Contest, ACPAC.


RULES:

     The organizers of the 1993 version of the ACPAC will be
implementing precisely the same rules that we used in 1992:

     1.  The pitcher winning the 1993 ACPAC will be the pitcher
         who yields the most home runs per 9 innings pitched AND
         who pitches at least 80 innings at the major league level in 1993. 

     2.  The entrant who wins the contest will be the person who
         predicts which pitcher will come higher in the ACPAC
         standings than the pitchers selected by the other entrants.

     3.  If more than one person submits the name of the winning
         pitcher, the winning entrant will be whoever comes closest in
         the entrants' predictions of the pitchers' HR/9ip.

     4.  If there is still a tie, the judges will toss a coin.

     5.  As we did last year, ACPAC will be awarding the
         following prizes to the winners:

         a.   The winning contestant will receive a tasteful polo-
              type shirt from the contest sponsors, The Economics
              Institute for Journalists. The shirts are beige, with a
              nice logo over the pocket, and are not guaranteed to
              fit. The shirts regularly retail for $19.95 [Cdn.]

         b.   The winning contestant, the winning pitcher, winners
              from the past, and several runners up will all be
              invited [at their own expense] to attend a banquet to
              be held in their honour. The 1992 banquet and
              awards-presentation ceremony were a resounding
              success. 

HELPFUL DATA

     Listed below are many of the leading candidates for the 1993
ACPAC. Columns 2-4 show their 1992 stats, and columns 5-7 give the
projections from the 1993 STATS handbook. Be forewarned, however,
that the STATS projections do not take into account changes in
affiliations (and parks and leagues) since 1992. Also, the STATS
projections show a marked regression to the mean. Columns 8 and 9
summarize the entries received to date. Interetingly, no one has yet
selected Jim Acker, Dennis Cook, or 1992 favourite Dave Johnson.

     The pitchers whose names appear in this list are not necessarily the
pitchers that the experts at ACPAC predict will be the leaders in 1993.
These names are merely taken from the submissions to the 1992 and 1993
ACPAC, from the 1992 list of actual leaders, and from the higher
projections made by STATS, Inc.

                      '92 Data     '93 STATS projctns  Net Picks
 Name             HR    ip     HR/   HR  ip    HR/     #     avg.
                               9ip             9ip     of   predicted
                                                      votes  HR/9ip 
 Boucher, Denis     9     41  1.976
 Kipper, Bob        8   38.7  1.860   5   46  0.978
 Slusarski, Joe    15     76  1.776
 Aldred, Scott     12     65  1.662                     2    1.509
 Cook, Dennis      29    158  1.652
 Bones, Ricky      27  163.3  1.488                     1    1.580
 Gullickson, Bill  35  221.7  1.421  27  223  1.090     3    1.691
 DeLucia, Rich     13   83.2  1.406                     1    1.700
 Boskie, S.        14   91.7  1.374
 Hillegas, Shawn   13     86  1.360   9   85  0.953
 Abbott, Kyle      20  133.3  1.350                     1    1.900
 Otto, Dave        12   80.3  1.345
 Sanderson, Scott  28  193.3  1.304  25  198  1.136
 Reardon, Jeff      6   42.3  1.277   7   58  1.086
 McDonald, Ben     32    227  1.269
 Milacki, Bob      16  115.7  1.245  15  138  0.978
 Armstrong, Jack   23  166.7  1.242  19  158  1.082
 Wells, David      16    120  1.200  15  146  0.925
 Acker, Jim         4   30.7  1.173   5   50  0.900
 Black, Bud        23    177  1.169  21  189  1.000
 Berenguer, Juan   10     78  1.154   8   73  0.986
 Blyleven, Bert    17    133  1.150  11   89  1.112     6    1.557
 Crim, Chuck       11     87  1.138   8   88  0.818
 Stewart, Dave     25  199.3  1.129  20  208  0.865     3    1.518
 Tanana, Frank     22  186.3  1.063  23  197  1.051
 Finley, Chuck     24  204.3  1.057  19  212  0.807
 Robinson, Don      7     60  1.050   9   80  1.013
 Cadaret, Greg     12  103.7  1.041   8  110  0.655
 Cerutti, John*    17  150.3  1.018
 Key, Jimmy        24  216.7  0.997  20  214  0.841
 Hough, Charlie    19  176.3  0.970  20  184  0.978
 Wegman, Bill      28  261.7  0.963  25  239  0.941
 Welch, Bob        13  123.7  0.946  17  156  0.981
 Hesketh, Joe      15  148.7  0.908  17  150  1.020
 Young, Matt        7   70.7  0.891   5   77  0.584
 Drees, Tom*       12  128.3  0.842
 Jones, Jimmy      13  139.3  0.840  14  138  0.913
 Moore, Mike       20    223  0.807  15  219  0.616     1    1.500
 Fraser, Willie*    8     90  0.800
 Leary, Tim        12    141  0.766  13  134  0.873
 Cox, Danny         5     62  0.726   9   76  1.066
 Cormier, Rheal    15    186  0.726
 Crews, Tim         6     78  0.692   7   77  0.818
 Morris, Jack      18  240.7  0.673  18  243  0.667
 Walk, Bob         10    135  0.667  13  128  0.914
 Johnson, Dave*     4   54.7  0.658
 Darling, Ron      15  206.3  0.654  21  202  0.936
 Plunk, Eric        5   71.7  0.628   9   85  0.953
 Portugal, Mark     7  101.3  0.622  12  124  0.871
 Browning, Tom      6     87  0.621  16  135  1.067
 Darwin, Danny     11  161.3  0.614  15  130  1.038
 Swindell, Greg    14  213.7  0.590  20  222  0.811
 Robinson, Jeff M   5     78  0.577  12   89  1.213
 Plesac, Dan        5     79  0.570   8   83  0.867
 Deshaies, Jim      6     96  0.563  10  118  0.763
 Eckersley, Denni   5     80  0.563   8   79  0.911
 Johnson, Randy    13  210.3  0.556  18  207  0.783
 Davis, Storm       5   89.3  0.504   9   98  0.827
 Viola, Frank      13    238  0.492  18  236  0.686
 Gooden, Doc       11    206  0.481  11  201  0.493
 Rasmussen, Denni   2   42.7  0.422   8   77  0.935
 Nagy, Charles     11    252  0.393  15  238  0.567
 Jones, Barry       3   69.7  0.387   4   76  0.474
 Howell, Jay        2   46.7  0.385   2   48  0.375

 * indicates 1992 minor league stats
----
     Some tips for those who will be entering the contest: 

     First, it is unlikely that a pitcher in the NL will win the ACPAC.
Even though Denver has both Boucher and Aldred, and the Denver park
is likely to be a big HR park, remember that even these pitchers will
face the pitchers' spot in the batting order, which will cut down slightly
on the number of HR they give up during the season. Also, the pitchers
in the NL get to face the batters from at least one expansion team, and
these batters will on average be less likely to hit home runs.

     Second, some of these guys are washed up and are unlikely to get
many, if any, innings pitched during the 1993 season. If in doubt, get a
STATS or other data source to check their ages and previous records. 

     Third, feel free to enter now and then change your entry should
your candidate be injured or sent to the minors, or should you just
happen to realize how dumb your orginal entry was. Simply e-mail [don't
post] your entry or re-entry to me, using the form below. I'll post updates 
on an irregular basis as the entries come in and as time permits.

---------------------------------------------------------------
                       ENTRY FORM

Your Name:

Pitcher:

Projected HR/9ip (to 3 decimal places):
---------------------------------------------------------------

To date, entries have been received...

From: rvesterm%irishvma.bitnet@utcs.utoronto.ca
From: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
From: mjones@fenway.aix.kingston.ibm.com (Mike Jones)
From: Joe Lundy <jlundy@encore.com>
From: dave@snitor.sni.ca (Dave Till)
From: kbanaian@BERNARD.PITZER.CLAREMONT.EDU (King Banaian)
From: KETTLER@PIERRE.MIT.EDU
From: twhite@dvorak.amd.com (Tom White)
From: kenney@tribe.b17d.ingr.com (David Kenney)
From: Paul R Krueger <paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu>
From: glhuckabay@ucdavis.edu
From: David Johnson <djohnson@undergrad.math.uwaterloo.ca>
From: naka@jonah.elan.com (James "Naka" Nakamura)
From: dfl@math.wayne.edu (David Frohardt-Lane)
From: eriksa@techbook.com (Erik Anderson)
From: sweda@css.itd.umich.edu
From: rising@zoo.toronto.edu
From: kar@fig.cray.com (Kent Rogers)

-- 
  John Palmer    London, Ontario       Voice: (519) 661-3533     FAX: 661-3666
  reply to jpalmer@uwovax.uwo.ca       The Economics Institute for Journalists
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