From: wall@cc.swarthmore.edu (Matthew Wall)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Walls' '92 Predictions (long)
Date: 6 Apr 92 16:53:17 GMT
Article-I.D.: cc.3GDHBCH8
Organization: BoSox South

WallUs T92 Picks

	AL EAST	AL WEST	NL EAST	NL WEST
1	BOS		SEA		STL		CIN
2	TOR		TEX		NYM		LAD
3	CLE		CHS		PHL		SDP
4	BAL		MIN		PIT		ATL
5	MIL		OAK		MON		SFG
6	DET		KCR		CHC		HOU
7	NYY		CAL


Series: Cincinnati over Boston in seven. This time Tony Pena hits the dinger in game six and Roger Clemens is ejected in the top of the ninth in game seven.

AL MVP: Ellis Burks. If I keep predicting it, maybe it will come true.
NL MVP: Felix Jose. HeUs good enough to do it one of these years.
AL Cy Young: Roger Clemens. Always a safe bet.
NL Cy Young: Greg Swindell. The curse of the Indians is lifted.

AL East:

(see bottom of this article for in-depth comparison of Jays vs. Sox)
1. Red Sox: improved pitching with great long depth, massive power, and bench depth overcome JaysU better speed and defense in the long haul.
2. Jays: one of the best-balanced teams in the majors, with not quite enough depth to pull it off this year. Superb pitching but not enough to dominate (look at the Angels last year!)
3. Indians: yep, my surprise pick oU the year. A great young manager and a great team of young talent - reminiscent of the Orioles a few years back. Not enough seasoning to contend, but enough offensive oomph to win some.
4. Orioles: A good crop of young talent all around and the instant karma of the best ballpark in the majors. Some serious holes offensively, and Cal probably canUt continue to carry the team. Pitching mediocre but improving. Give the OUs one or two more years to contend.
5. Milwaukee: the strong finish last year was based on career-type numbers from veterans. DonUt expect miracles, especially with a melange of pitching mediocrity. Fifth on the strength of no Gary Sheffield.
6. Detroit: no pitching, no pitching, no pitching. The power approach is stronger, if anything, this year, but IUm not sure it will work two years in a row. Defense in the infield is looking very shaky as it ages.
7. New York: The Curse of Billy Martin, year 3 -- no improvements whatsoever anywhere. Without Sax, not even some manufactured runs. The pitchingUs a joke. Free Roberto Kelly! 

AL West:

1. Mariners: Weaker in relief sans Jackson/Swift and with Schooler questionable, the starting staff is nevertheless competitive (and young and healthy) compared to the rest of the division. Add a fantastic offense: Reynolds, Martinez, Griffey, Mitchell, Buhner, and of course Dave Valle. You got a pennant coming to the Northwest for the first and last time.
2. Rangers: without a doubt the best offensive line-up in baseball: Palmeiro, Franco, Thon, Palmer, Gonzalez, Sierra, Rodriguez. With miracles from Bobby Witt and Kevin Brown, theyUll win it. But letUs face it, these guys just havenUt panned out - donUt expect the impossible. Lots of 11-9 losses.
3. White Sox: with George Bell in the line-up the offensive questions are mostly cleared up. Sax-Raines-Ventura-Thomas-Bell is the best first five in baseball. IUm not sure the pitching staff is up to it - only McDowell has really shown consistency. Thigpen/Radinsky the best closing combo in AL.
4.  Twins: Nah. Everybody had a good year last year - it wonUt happen again. Smiley isnUt *that* good, Erickson has arm troubles, TapaniUs streaky, and thereUs not enough depth to carry the team to the 9th. 
5. Athletics: people picking them first are on drugs. Even with a miraculous comeback by Stew, the pitching has been falling apart across the board for three years. Mike Moore is the quality starter now. EverybodyUs old except the bash brothers. Mark McGwireUs presumptive comeback will make them entertaining but not contending. Could be sixth or even last with injuries.
6. Royals: OK, theyUve got some interesting younger talent, George Brett is into his ninth life at least, and they got rid of Gibson. They also lost Danny Tartabull and Bret Saberhagen. You donUt lose your best two players and improve.
7. Angels: Last year minus Kirk McCaskill and Wally Joyner. Von Hayes and Hubie Brooks donUt exactly make me shudder with terror. Look for many wasted excellent pitching performances.

NL East:
1. Cardinals.  For some reason everybodyUs talking about how close the NL East will be this year. Go figure. StL. has speed, defense, and average; it will improve the power this year with the fences in; it has a good mix of solid reliable veteran pitching (Smith and Smith) and good younger pitchers to spell them; excellent management and a strong showing last year. All the ingredients are there.
2. Mets. DonUt get me wrong, that offensive line-up is spectacular. The defense is horrendous, and the pitching only looks good on paper. Odd/Even notwithstanding, Saberhagen is coming into a new league from an off year, Cone is streaky as hell, and questions abound about the rest of the staff. I doubt the brief experiment with team solidarity will last. And Torborg has a  t e m p e r ! TheyUll contend, but only great years from Gooden and Fernandez will win it. Look for new horizons in New York Post headl






ines.
3. Phillies. Could be the worst team in the majors this year if things go wrong. But there are a lot of things going for the Phils, and IUm predicting theyUll play above their game in a weird T92 East. Bear in mind they finished third last year with only half a Lenny Dykstra and no pitching.
4.  Pirates: absent their # 2 pitcher, their # 1 hitter, their # 1 closer (such as he was) and with half the team negotiating free agency for next year, the Pirates can only get worse. 4th is how much worse.
5. Expos: hereUs the most likely to be wrong pick. Excellent younger prospects and the prospect of rebound years from Wallach/ Walker/ Wetteland - if they get the breaks, they might even contend. But the pitching just isnUt there yet, and IUm not sure the rest of the team is developed enough to make up the difference. Give it a few years.
6. Cubs: sorry, Cubsters, Sammy Sosa is a scrubster, and no George Bell. A moderately improved pitching staff will not make up for holes everywhere.

NL West:

1. Reds: Ooog. The offensive line-up is young, extremely talented, and coming off a sobering-up year that will help them focus. The pitching staff unparalleled: you could argue five number one starters on one staff, plus messrs. Charlton and Dibble. Ouch. Maybe another wire to wire?!?
2. Dodgers: as quick as the Dodgers lose good players to free agency, they pick up new ones. This team could in fact be improved by getting younger players in the line-up. Strawb/Davis could be overrated, but itUs actually a good offensive/defensive combination. Pitching likely to improve, and OrelUs got the best shot of coming back of any of the Stieb/Stewart types.
3. Padres. Why? I always pick the Padres third. TheyUre destined for mediocrity. So they may finish fourth. Sue me.
4.  Braves. OK,  Braves fans, theyUre probably better than this, but itUs equal opportunity for the Twinkie fans. The Braves have more depth and youth than the Twins, so theyUll be back in future years while the Twins will not. But I donUt think this is the year - the middle infield was definitely in a career-year mode in T91, let us not forget problems with the leadoff spot absent Mr. Nixon (who also may simply have peaked last year), and some questions about how good the pitching staff really is. IUll ma






ke a pessimistic 4th place prediction based on the narrowness of the squeak last year and the assumption one of their good pitchers will choke.
5. Giants. What a great trade - three grade A pitchers (Swift, Jackson, Burba) for one tub oU grade A lard (Mitchell). OK, so now the Giants have maybe even half a good pitching staff, assuming the spring of Messrs. Brantley and Righetti is not indicative of full-season performance. Excellent. But no protection for Matt Williams, and nothing hot offensively outside the corners = lonely days and nights in the StickUs last season.
6. Astros. Actually a greatly improving team. Their strategy of inviting many spring training non-roster players may pay off with Doug Jones and Pete Incaviglia. But the TStros remind me of nothing so much as one of the many IndiansU teams that was always just a few developing players away from rising out of the basement. Maybe the new short fences will help some and propel them into 5th or 4th. Nah, not this year.

OK, Ugly details on the AL East:

OK, I admit it, IUm a Red Sox fan. But I picked them second last year, and they finished second. But this is the one division I actually get my picks correct consistently (including the winner 6 of the last 7 years), so listen up.

LetUs look at these teams head to head in Pitching, Power, Speed, Average, Defense, Bench Depth, and Management:

Pitching: 

Blue Jays: A healthy Dave Stieb could make a difference to TorontoUs already fabulous staff. Well, except Stottlemyre, whoUs a good pitcher but not the reincarnation of his Dad. And, well, Jack Morris, whoUs coming off a comeback season (of sorts) and is old. And David Wells is terrific, assuming heUll be consistent. Jimmy Key is excellent, although you donUt hear much about him. And that pen, itUs great. Although Henke is a bit of a question with that sore shoulder, heUs got Ward and Timlin behind him.  A






ssuming they donUt fizzle this year. Who do they have in long / middle relief? Nobody really waiting in the minors, as usual. And come to think of it, Dave Stieb hasnUt really shown heUs healthy yet, has he?

Alright, I oversell - reviewing the JaysU staff in the style of the Boston Herald reviewing the Sox. The Jays indeed have an excellent pitching staff with depth in starting and a solid closing staff. But it would be inhuman to suggest theyUll all have excellent years. The JaysUll lose some.

Red Sox: for once, thereUs a plethora of starters. Good starters, even. Say what you want about Frankie V., heUs a Cy Young winner in his prime - he may not win 20, but heUs no Danny Darwin (I know Danny Darwin, heUs a friend of mine, and ViolaUs no...etc.) So Clemens-Viola for the best 1-2 combo in the AL. Hesketh, Young (shudder) and a cast of thousands splitting long relief and the 5th (and 4th when Young chokes) starting spot, including Gardiner, Morton, Darwin, and Greg Harris. Hoy and Quantrill to ad






d young guns for injury replacements. Jeff Grey, the leagueUs best set-up man, should be back early in the season. And while Jeff ReardonUs not in his prime anymore, heUs still an A-quality reliever, and short of more back problems, should do about as well as T91.

Bottom line: an edge to the Jays in both starting and relief, with the mid to late season depth on the side of the Red Sox. Management of the pitching staff crucial for the Red Sox.


Power: 

Jays: theyUve got the best, most consistent power man in the league in Joe Carter. After that things fall off considerably. IUm sorry, Dave Winfield may be awesome, but heUs 40 years old. Give him 20 HRs and 75 RBI to be very charitable. I like John Olerud, whoUs developing his power swing and put on some muscle over the winter - pencil him in for an optimistic 25/80. Devo White ainUt gonna hit 20 again. Cross your fingers on Kelly Gruber, whoUll also be good for 20/80 if healthy (and he is right now.)

Red Sox: admittedly last yearUs power output was pretty pathetic after you get past Jack Clark. But Phil Plantier only played a third of the year. Add in Mo Vaughn and Tim Naehring, figuring one of them will live up to his predicted potential for 20-25 dingers. Burks and Greenwell have both had 20+ years in the past and had off power years last year.  The meat of this order - Greenwell, Burks, Plantier, Clark, and Vaughn - are going to score. And while IUm not counting too heavily on Tom Brunansky, the Sox






 will have the option of power on the bench for a change.

Bottom line: a mighty edge to the Red Sox. Not just in homers, but in general in extra bases (add Jody Reed and Wade Boggs, the ALUs best 3-year doubles team in and out of Fenway, and youUve got a LOT of extra bases.)

Speed: do we even have to discuss this?

Jays: Better than average speed throughout, with Devo White and Roberto Alomar heading a cast of legitimate stealers. Subtract a little bit for the conservative tinge to the coaching over the last few years, and youUve still got a team that will manufacture its share of runs on the basepaths.

Red Sox: OK, theyUve still got no speed. They do have a little bit of extra speed on the bench (Herm Winningham, maybe Wayne Housie) for role situations. Hobson has indicated (and demonstrated in spring) a willingness to push the Sox to be more aggressive on the basepaths. When it comes down to it, going from 1st to 3rd on a single is more valuable than stealing second, so maybe there will be a little improvement in the old station to station offense of old.  But they wonUt be creating too many new runs wi






th their wheels.


Average/Contact/On-base: 

Jays: a well-balanced line-up without too many strikeouts.  There are some offensive holes - shortstop, right field, catcher. Alomar, White, and Joe Carter are .300 threats, with Olerud right behind Tem. Big holes at SS, Catcher, and 3rd through 5th outfielders.

Red Sox: consistent league leaders in On-Base Percentage and in left on base totals. They go hand in hand. Jack Clark and Mo Vaughn should combine for at least 200 strikeouts, but you have to bear in mind Clark also could walk 100 times. Wade Boggs and Mike Greenwell are in the leagueUs top (bottom?) five for least likely to strikeout, and are both career .300 hitters. Ellis Burks struggled last year and had a fantastic spring - count on him to rebound. Jody Reed is also incredibly consistent. Shortstop is






 a question, but two youngsters - Valentin and Naehring - will probably mean more production from that spot than T91. Phil Plantier is that rarity, a young player who doesnUt whiff a lot. So, all in all, the Red Sox are looking pretty good still in the reaching base category.

Bottom line: advantage Red Sox.

Defense: 

Jays: not too many slackers here. The third outfield spot is still a question - donUt hold your breath waiting for Winfield. Lee/Alomar/White up the middle is a solid front. Olerud and Gruber on the corners are better than average fielders. Borders/Myers behind the plate wonUt add anything spectacular offensively, but will provide solid D.

Red Sox: OK, IUll stop dissing Mike Greenwell. HeUs become an adequate left fielder. Burks/Reed matches White/Alomar pretty well. Short is another question - but it looks like the outstanding Mike Valentin has found a spot on the club, and he and/or Timmy Naehring will send Luis Rivera packing very soon. If not, fire Butch Hobson, please, and do it soon. Wade Boggs is at least Kelly GruberUs equal and can now be numbered among the better gloves at third. Without Quintana, Mo Vaughn will be a liability at f






irst. DonUt underestimate the contribution of Tony Pena, the best game caller in the league. John Marzano is one of the better backup backstops around.

Bottom line: edge to Jays, with a big edge to Red Sox at catcher.

Bench Depth:

Jays: a mix of old and unproven. Rance Mulliniks the primary off the bench guy, a classic NL-style pinch hitting type, but I donUt think heUs potent or versatile enough to really make a big difference.  Beyond that, just kids, and the good ones were traded to Cleveland last year.


Red Sox: A good and fast reserve outfielder in Herm Winningham. Two backup shortstops better offensively and defensively than the starter. Scott Cooper waiting in Pawtucket to be traded or back up Boggs. Good power on the bench in Brunansky. John Marzano is no slouch with the bat for a backup catcher.

Bottom line: edge to Red Sox.

Management: While I think Cito GastonUs a better manager than Butch Hobson (and you better give Cito the benefit of a doubt since Butch is a rookie) look at it this way: which team has more room for improvement via changes in management? While I enjoyed tollway Joe, Butch has already made strides towards modernizing the club. Cf. the bit about improving aggressiveness on the basepaths, the fact heUs getting into computerized charts, heUs got a good knowledge of the young talent, and heUs already managed th






e pitching staff much better. Other than the expected pitfalls of having Don Zimmer around, IUd have to give a +5 games advantage to having a new manager to the Red Sox.

Bottom line overall: if you sincerely believe pitching and defense win pennants, the Jays have a lock. If you believe, like me, that power, bench depth, and management win pennants, the Sox will squeak by on the strength of their traditionally strong summer drive. Believe it or not, the pennant could come down to how warm it is in September - the Sox have always had a hard time keeping it going down the last stretch, and the comparatively older bones in Toronto will benefit from the warmer confines of SkyD






ome. Good weather for the Red Sox may mean a world series trip.