From: COWAN@ssrl01.slac.stanford.edu (Paul L. Cowan)
Subject: Re: Lies, D**n Lies, etc (Re: PSU is Overrated!)
Organization: CALIFORNIANS ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1992 20:28:59 GMT
X-News-Reader: VMS NEWS 1.24

In <31rt032JabdO00@amdahl.uts.amdahl.com> ronnie@uts.amdahl.com writes:

:  In article <1992Oct13.165322.18324@morrow.stanford.edu> COWAN@ssrl01.slac.stanford.edu (Paul L. Cowan) writes:
:  >In <92287.074450KRB104@psuvm.psu.edu> KRB104@psuvm.psu.edu writes:
:  >:  
:  >:    Penn State is one of the top programs in the country who consistently win
:  >:  over top 10 teams, right!!!!  WRONG!!!  A.P. reports that in the "Joe Paterno
:  >:  Era", PSU is 10-41 against teams that ended the season in the Top 10.  Now
:  >

This post drew a big reaction, so let me take a few minutes out of my lunch
hour to be precise on the point I was addressing.

The oringinal post by KRB104@psuvm.psu.edu had as a subject line "PSU is
Overrated". His evidence for this is based on the isolated *statistic* from the
AP that JoePa's teams are 10-41 against teams that *finished* the season in the
top 10. Now keep in mind that the question is whether "PSU is overrated" 
not whether it is the best team this year or the best team of all time or
has been the best program on the average. I interpreted the phrase to mean 
that "PSU is overrated each year in contrast to my [KRB104's] beloved Maryland
Terrepins". Since PSU is typically rated around number 7 in pre-season polls
(which are the most subjective) and go up or down from there, I am only
addressing whether this is roughly fair.

So, what does KRB104's statistic tell us. Well PSU's record of 10-41 looks
pretty bad. Most coaches would be fired for a 10-41 record after 5 years.
However this is a record against top teams. Well, if PSU is a "top team" they
ought to play such teams pretty even maybe .500. Okay, if PSU is roughly No.7 
on average maybe .500 is too much to expect. They should beat 8,9,& 10 but loose
to No.1-6, that's 3-6 (.333).

Now here is where the lies, d**n lies and statistics comes in. KRB104 doesn't
give PSU's record against teams ranked in the top 10 *going into* the game with
PSU, but their record against teams that *finished* the season in the top ten.
Since the people who vote in the polls that *define* the top 10 have a clear 
preference to vote for teams with *few* losses this skews the statistics 
drastically. 

To understand this pitfall consider this, what is PSU's record in bowl games 
against teams that were undefeated *COMING INTO THE BOWL GAME* (I dunno, but
it's non-zero). Now what is PSU's record against teams that *FINISHED THE
SEASON* undefeated? (This I do know, it's .000 same as Miami, same as Oklahoma
you name it). When you use somebody's record completed *AFTER* the event you
are testing i.e. PSU's record against a "top team" the whole process is invalid
(at least unless you make a similarly skewed evaluation of some other team for
comparison).

Maybe, PSU is overrated. If so make your argument logically. Don't get trapped
by the lies, d**n lies and statistics trap that the AP reporter has laid. 
If you tell me PSU is 10-41 (including good years and bad) against teams that 
were voted into the top ten at the end of the season because they lost very 
few games, my reaction is that 10-41 doesn't sound bad.

Here are a few specific responses to ronnie@uts.amdahl.com 

:  Whoa there dude...  What on Earth are you talking about?  Joe *has* had his 
:  share of 7-4 and 8-3 teams as I recall. 

I said as much.

:  Switzers worst teams at OU were no worse than 7-4 and "the Bear"
:  never sunk below 7-4 either. Hell Tom Osborne has yet to finish worse 
:  than 9-3 at Nebraska. 

Those coaches had (still has) good records and their teams were usually 
rated above PSU.  Does that make PSU over rated?

: My point is that the continuity PSU has enjoyed was enjoyed by 
:  all the great college coaches during their tenures. Bear Bryant retired, 

I think this is way the pollsters put PSU where they do every year. 
In college, the coach is the continuity.

:  Switzer was run out of town in Norman because he was wild-man (a trait I 
: happen to admire) 

And I do not, but it is irrelevant to whether PSU is overrated.

: Woody Hayes and Bo got old.  

So do we all.

: JoePa simply has been around longer 
:  than most of the current great coaches. 

Which is why his statistics may look lower than younger coaches who have had a
string of good teams. After 5 years JoePa had the highest winning percentage
of active coaches. After 25, he is still up there.

:  Can you imagine FSU doing any worse 
:  than 7-4 under Bowden? 

Well, gee, I think that WVa had worse years than 7-4 under Bowden. I don't see
why FSU might not.

: Or Miami losing more than 2 games under anybody?  

I don't trust statistics, but isn't JoePa 6-4 against Miami?

: Holtz
:  has likewise built a default 8-3 program at Notre Dame, not really all that 
:  hard to do but it is a fact. 

And one of those "3" losses has often been to JoePa.

:Don James, will eventually begin to lose the 
:  recruiting war to Bill Walsh in California and his program could slide... 
:  assuming Walsh sticks around long enough. Until then UW will lose no more than 
:  3 a year. 
:  

Just like Johnny Major's came along an rebuilt Pitt, then Syracuse and BC
had good years. I think you are reinforcing my point that it is unfair to 
compare JoePa's numbers over 25 years to teams who have been hot for a few 
years and conclude that it implies PSU is "overrated"

:  aroun

:  The interesting thing about this is that I don't believe Paterno would have 
:  ever won a championship if there had been a playoff. 

Wait a minute! The *ONLY* 2 times he won the national champianship was when 
he beat the No.1 ranked team *ON THE PLAYING FIELD*. I don't know what 
you consider a playoff, but to me having No.1 play No.2 beats the system that
exists!

:  He did not have the 
:  best team in the country in either of years they won it. 

I see, you trust statistics like 10-41 against teams pre-selected based on few
losses indicating a bad record, but the final score in a bowl game doesn't 
mean much?

: In either year, 
:  Oklahoma or Nebraska would have overpowered him.    

Well, I was in the stands when PSU beat Nebraska in '82. Nebraska was
overmatched through most of the first half, but made a heck of a comeback to
take the lead with 1:35 on the clock, before PSU's concluding TD drive. 
Is that what you mean by overpowering?

PSU beat the Miami team that beat Oklahoma in '86, (essentially the same OU 
team that PSU had played close into the final minutes in the '86 Orange Bowl
the year before). Is that the team that you say would have overpowered them?

This is the sort of b**l s**t that is only possible in college football
*because* there is no playoff.

:  By they way, I just 
:  remembered that Clemson won the MNC in 1982 so I'm still trying to figure
:  out where that one guy got two in the 80's for JoePa? 
:  

You're just full of facts aren't you? The Nittany Lions of Pennsylvania State
University won the mythical NCAA College Football Championship, as awarded by
the AP and UPI football polls for the 1982 season following their victory over
the Bull Dogs from Georgia, including Hershel Walker, in the January 1, 1983 
Sugar Bowl. You can take that to the bank.

At the time this was the *FIRST* time that a team who had played the "most
difficult college schedule" as determined by some computer ranking (New York
Times?) was able to win the "National Championship". I think Miami may have
done it since.

:  Ronnie
:  -------------------------------------------------------------
:  I'm not cynical... I just don't believe in anything....
:  

I'm almost the same, from now on I just don't believe anything that you say.


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P. L. Cowan     Please send replies, comments etc. (no flames thank you) to 
COWAN@ANL.GOV  (I'm posting from my own account, but not the preferred one)
        "Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is a War Room!"
from _Dr._Strangelove_or:_How_I_Learned_to_Stop_Worrying_and_Love_the_Bomb_
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