From: burchard@horizon.math.utah.edu (Paul Burchard)
Subject: Other surprises in store for NeXT management....
Organization: University of Utah Computer Center
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 92 16:42:02 GMT

In article <845@rtbrain.rightbrain.com> glenn@rightbrain.com (Glenn Reid)  
writes:
> Jim De Arras writes
> 
> > 			NeXT got tired of waiting, and has now changed  
> > it's focus.
> 
> I think you hit the nail on the head.  The dealer channel was created,
> but not particularly well fed or supported.  The shrink-wrap software
> business got a good push, but then was left to roll on its own.
> 
> My own opinion is that we're collectively reaching critical mass in the
> third-party software arena, and when we reach it, the world is going to
> renew its interest in the NeXT as a high-end Mac/PC, and will surprise
> NeXT with strong sales that have nothing to do with custom applications.
> Expect NeXT to then revise its marketing strategy again to once again
> encompass dealers, end users, Mac and PC owners.  NeXTstep 486 will also
> help enormously.

Another little surprise for NeXT management will be the effect of hardware  
competitiveness on sales.  Remember, NeXT's best period of sales was the 9  
months or so after the introduction of the NeXTstations.  I and many other  
people I know bought them at that time because they were an incredible  
price/performance deal for a UNIX box....and incidentally came with a lot of  
neat software.

Selling a computer solely on the basis of software is a lot harder.  First, no  
matter how great the software is, no one wants to look like a fool by shelling  
out thousands of dollars on obsolete hardware.  And by now, a couple years and  
a price increase later, those same NeXTstations are barely competitive.

Second, it takes a lot more time and experience with the machine for people to  
appreciate the value of NeXT's software.  I thought NeXTSTEP was neat, in an  
abstract way, from the moment I bought it.  But it took a year or so before I  
finally had one of those "mission critical app experiences" that made the  
appreciation visceral.  And before the appreciation is visceral it's not going  
to sell the product.

I think that NeXTSTEP '486 will be of benefit if (and only if) it makes people  
feel that they can run NeXTSTEP on what they believe is the "hottest" hardware.   
That feeling would give them the emotional leeway they need to gamble on the  
less obvious benefits of NeXT's software.

In the same way, the fabled NRW won't benefit NeXT unless it is a significantly  
better price/performance deal than the current crop of NeXTstations.  People  
locked into the Mac world may buy overpriced Quadras simply to get the extra  
power, but no one will buy high-powered NRWs unless they present the kind of  
eye-popping bargain that the original NeXTstations did.

In my opinion, the biggest downside in NeXT management's current tunnel vision  
is that NeXT could lose the "moral capital" and grass-roots support that hold  
together its entire market.  There is currently enough enthusiam at the  
grass-roots level for NeXT and NeXTSTEP, that programmers are sneaking NeXT  
machines into their jobs despite massive prejudice and opposition, and lobbying  
their employers to use and support NeXT machines.  But because of the large  
investment in "education" needed to sell the machine for its software alone,  
NeXT finds it can't afford to direct its sales and support resources to  
anything but large corporate installations anymore.  Following this route  
diligently will unfortunately squash that enthusiasm quite efficiently.

--
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Paul Burchard	<burchard@math.utah.edu>
``I'm still learning how to count backwards from infinity...''
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Newsgroups: comp.sys.next.advocacy