From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Morris: more fuel for this debate
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Distribution: na
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1992 05:10:11 GMT

In <1992Oct7.182747.6462@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>In article <1992Oct6.214115.16107@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>In <1992Oct6.144116.1656@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:

>>>Well, Jim Abbott, with 2.77 ERA (~1.3 Lower than Jack's) went 7 - 15! So, if
>>>we assume that the PyT is a reasonable predictor, he doesn't look much worse
>>>for the Angels than Abbott!

>>Mike, I've said it before and I'll say it again.

>>Random error.  When you are working with a sample set of size ~35,
>>*no* statistics are going to be very precise.  Maybe if Jim Abbott

>Then how relevant are, really, in evaluating an individual's performance if
>as you say "with a sample set of size ~35, *no* statistics are going to be 
>very precise"? 

Assuming I'm parsing that sentence correectly, the answer is because 
you don't *have* to look at a sample set of 35 (W-L record).  In fact,
why would you?  I never understood this wierd idea of assigning a team
result -- wins and losses -- to one player.  You wouldn't go around
giving wins and losses out to infielders, would you?  

"Ryne Sandberg sucks.  He has an awful record.  Sure, his pitchers can't 
pitch, but if he were a Winner, he'd hit to the score and the team would 
win."

Yes, a pitcher has *more* of an effect than any one other player, but...

[Not to mention that the method of assigning W-Ls to pitchers is pretty
arbitrary.]

You can look at IP and Runs allowed.  Personally, I like quality starts 
as a measure, in addition. 

>>gets the same ERA/run support next year, he will achieve a 8-14
>>record.  Maybe he'll even get lucky and be 9-13.  And a 9-13 record is

>BTW, his RS/9 was about the same as his ERA; he should have been about a
>.500 pitcher. (as of end of Sept ERA 2.66, RS/9 2.53) You know what? Sutcliffe
>managed a 16-15 record with a .25 difference (ERA 4.21, RS/9 4.47) Abbott 
>wasn't close to .500.

I can explain this one.  He finished with a 2.77 ERA and 2.64 RS.  But
wait, there's more.  You're using the wrong measure.  He *actually*
allowed 3.11 runs per 9.  Why?  UNearned runs.  So he *didn't* allow
about as many runs as he got. 

OTOH, the one problem with ERA is that it is an average.  A 2.5 ERA is
great if you consistently allow 2.5 runs per 9.  But if you allow 0 runs
half the time and 5 runs half the time, you're going to lose many more
games, given average run support.

(This is why I like quality starts.  It tells me how many times the
pitcher pitched well, which is often more important.  Two excellent and
one miserable start just isn't as valuable as three very good starts.)

As an aside, Abbott had 19 QSs in 29 starts.  Morris had 19 QSs in *34*
starts.  Sutcliffe had 18 QSs in *36* starts.  For a pitcher to have 19
QSs and just 9 wins *really* implies that his team sucked.

>>*much* better than a 7-19 record.  That's six fewer games that he has
>>lost for his team!  (And we know that few players are worth even
>>*close* to this much.)

>Now, he doesn't HAVE a 9 - 13 record, does he? And even THAT wouldn't be 
>very impressive for a pitcher who gets about as much as he gives up.

9-13 is EXACTLY what Pythagorean says he should have given RS and RA.
But that's an approximation, given an even distribution of the 
scoring on both sides, which obviously isn't true.  Random error can
account for the difference between 9-13 and 7-15.

As an aside, the Angels had a pretty lame bullpen.  That *also* is going
to worsen Abbotts record.   (Not to mention a pathetic offense.  I've
never seen this happen before, but if I haven't missed someone, NO ONE,
not even a September callup, slugged .400.  *Rene Gonzales* led the team
in SLG with a .398.  Second?  Sluggin' Luis Sojo, with a .378.  Wow.)

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1993 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Roland Hemond: SIGN BARRY BONDS!!!!!!!!
Vote Clinton/Gore '92.   Four more weeks!!!   		"Bloody urine"
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