From: jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com (Jim Mann)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Maynard Ex Ante
Date: 18 Dec 1992 13:38:47 GMT
Organization: Stratus Computer Inc, Marlboro MA
Reply-To: jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com
NNTP-Posting-Host: gondolin.pubs.stratus.com

In article <1992Dec18.005254.6241@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca>  
maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes:
> In <1992Dec17.212616.1708@midway.uchicago.edu>  
thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank) writes:
> >team in baseball has 27-1 odds against winning the World Series in  
1993?
> >That the Blue Jays and Rockies have about equivalent chances of  
winning
> >the World Series?
> 
> Vegas odds are predictions of how people in general will bet.  They  
are 
> not any kind of "scientific" prediction of how good a team is.

> The true probability of any team's success is unknown if we cannot  
determine
> all of the premisses.  And we can't.  That is exactly my point.   
The true
> odds of any team winning the WS cannot be determined.  Too many  
variables.

You are fuzzing the issue again, talking about true odds. If by this
you mean: do we know exactly the chances, with no margin for
error, the answer is, of course not. There are variables, as you
say. But not being able to say EXACTLY does not mean that we can't
say anything.  Or do you really think the Marlins are as likely
as the Jays to win the series next year?
> 
> >If you feel that the Blue Jays (or, indeed, even the Cincinnati  
Reds)
> >have a better chance than the Rockies, what makes you feel that  
way?
> 
> "feel" is the keyword in your sentence and I am pleased to see that  
you
> seem to be catching on (finally).  My opinion on who is going to  
win is
> totally subjective as is yours however I don't delude myself by  
believing
> that my "evidence" is in any way objective.

So, if someone in the street, who never even watched a baseball
game, comes up to you and says "I think the Marlins are going
to win it all next year," his opinion is just as well founded
as yours?

I'm also confused by your use of the term "subjective."  You went
(a few paragraphs back) from saying that nothing we can predict
is "exact" (which is true, but misleading the way you stated it)
to saying that all our knowledge about baseball is "subjective"
(which is nonsense).  There is just too much hard evidence out
there that can be used in prediction, and that has worked in the
past. Has it worked exactly?  No, there are other factors that
can modify it. But this does not mean that it is somehow 
subjective.  

> >Perhaps the statheads are also holding the team together "within  
reason"?
> >But are just being slightly more reasonable?
> 
> That of course is a matter of opinion isn't it?  The statheads can  
"prove"
> that the winner of the WS is not the "best" team.  And they want  
the "best"
> team.  I want the WS winner.  We will have to let the fans decide I  
guess.

Actually, when you talk about the best TEAM, you have a point.
A good defintion of the best team IS the one that won the
series.  However, you took this a step furhter than that. You
then said that, since the Jays were the best team, Cito had
to be the best manager. Someone pointed out to you that this,
by analogy, means that Alfredo Griffen was the best shortstop,
and you agreed.  The Jays being the best team does NOT mean
that they had the best player at each position, and that they
had the best manager. It just means that the sum total of the
package was the best.

> 
> >After all, by your argument, Griffin is twice as good as Winfield,  
who
> >is infinitely better than Molitor.
> 
> Nope.  My point is that we cannot tell which player contributed  
more to the
> WS win and it is pointless to speculate on the subject.

That was one of your points, and it was silly, since it's quite
easy to see who did well (again, with some hazy ground in the 
middle).  But the point you started out on was that
"if Tornonto was the best team, Cito had to be the best manager."
This simply does NOT follow.

--
Jim Mann            
Stratus Computer   jmann@vineland.pubs.stratus.com