HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: demers@cs.ucsd.edu (David DeMers)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Les Expos.... Predictions... Free Agent signings
Date: 27 Sep 92 04:31:27 GMT
Organization: =CSE Dept., U.C. San Diego

In article <1992Sep27.015618.15203@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>In article <1992Sep26.235539.4957@dartvax.dartmouth.edu> Ryan.J.Victor@dartmouth.edu (Ryan J. Victor) writes:
>>Lastly, are there any
>>high-to-ridiculously-priced free agent pitchers in the market this year
>>that the Expos might try to sign? 

>Well, there's the best pitcher in the National League, Maddux.  I would
>suspect the Expos to be at a huge disadvantage in trying to sign him.
>My guess is that he ends up with the Padres.  

Much as I'd like to see Maddux and Bonds with San Diego, the
word is that the payroll has to go down by $10MM.  Lefferts
was $2.2, Benito about $3.2, Myers $2+ and they'll all be gone.
Stillwell is just about $2 and will probably be gone. That's 
about $10MM right there.  To add Bonds or Maddux, they will need 
to trim even more.  Hurst is really the only big salary
available to dump (though why you'd dump a pitcher like Hurst
is beyond me...), though Fernandez might be gone too (no replacement
available at the ML level, but he's unhappy and can demand a
trade, I believe.). 


-- 
Dave DeMers			 ddemers@UCSD   demers@cs.ucsd.edu
Computer Science & Engineering	C-014		demers%cs@ucsd.bitnet
UC San Diego					...!ucsd!cs!demers
La Jolla, CA 92093-0114	(619) 534-0688, or -8187, FAX: (619) 534-7029
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tomscud@ruf.rice.edu (Thomas Reid Scudder)
Subject: Bullpens
Organization: Rice University
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 07:04:26 GMT

Does anyone have any stats on who has the best bullpens in the two leagues?
I don't have the vast stat library at my fingertips which some of you seem to,
and I was wondering how Houston's bullpen stacks up, by ERA, RA, and maybe
save percentage.  (I suspect that they're pretty good, as their top 3 relievers
(Xavier Hernandez, Doug Jones, and Joe Boever (!)) all have ERAs in the 2.5 or
lower range, with 90 or so innings each).
From: z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: NL ROY: More Fuel for Debate
Date: 30 Sep 92 15:21:52 CST
Organization: Stephen F. Austin State University

In article <6552@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP>, genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
> Thus spake z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu:
>>
>>	Well, I would consider Bonds worth 5/9ths a run a game more than
>>Pendleton (basically just subtract the higher RC/27 from the lower, divide by 9
>>(unless Bonds can take up 2 batting slots :-)) and that will be the player's 
>>*rough* advantage in runs/game).
> 
> Does this mean that, over 150 games, Bonds's team will score 250 more runs
> than Pendleton's, all other things being equal?  Or, conversely, that the
> Pirates would have scored 250 fewer runs with Pendleton batting in place of
> Bonds?  I find that hard to believe.
> 

	Nope, thats not what I was saying. Over 150 games, Bonds would add
(5/9 * 150) 83 runs more to a team than Pendleton, all other things being
equal.

	Lets take a player closer to Pendleton's RC/27. Let's call him player
X, and say his RC/27 is exactly one point higher. All other things being equal,
he would add 17 runs more to a team than Pendleton over the course of 150
games. A good, though not huge, margin. If the RC/27 difference is only .5, its
less than 10 runs in those 150 games, which isn't *that* significant.

	The reason that the Bonds-Pendleton number look so strange is that
while Pendleton is having a fairly good season, Bonds is having a god-like
season, and there is a huge disparity between their RC/27s.

Brandon Cope
From: z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: A dumb question
Date: 6 Oct 92 10:05:31 CST
Organization: Stephen F. Austin State University

In article <1992Oct6.095609.1382@ccsvax.sfasu.edu>, z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu writes:
> In article <1992Oct6.131023.19992@cs.cornell.edu>, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>> 
>> Will LaRussa be starting Weiss in the playoffs?  It seems that he
>> would have equally good defense with Bordick/Browne as with
>> Weiss/Bordick (Weiss has reportedly lost a step), and Browne certainly
>> has had the better bat this year!
> 
> 	Not that it means anything, but in this morning's USA Today, in the
> position-vs-position matchups, they have Weiss listed at short.
> 	OTOH, nowhere do they mention Bordick...

	Argh, should have looked up on the page. Bordick is listed as the
starting 2nd baseman.

Brandon Cope

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: cb@tamarack13.timbuk (Chris Brewster)
Subject: Re: Replacing Puckett (was Re: Arrogance, Statheads, and Life.)
In-reply-to: ecaxron@ariel.lerc.nasa.gov's message of 6 Oct 92 15:24:00 GMT
Organization: pubs
	<1992Oct3.201313.11231@Princeton.EDU>
	<5OCT199211220971@ariel.lerc.nasa.gov>
	<1992Oct5.203237.9842@news2.cis.umn.edu>
	<6OCT199210243631@ariel.lerc.nasa.gov>
Distribution: na
Date: 6 Oct 92 13:07:23 CDT

Ron Graham writes:

   Upper deck notwithstanding, who takes over if Puckett leaves?  Please
   don't say "Gene Larkin" ;-).  But I would like to know.

This answer might be a few years premature, but I'd nominate Knoblauch.

Chris Brewster
cb@cray.com
From: z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: RC/MLV Study
Date: 6 Oct 92 07:49:43 CST
Distribution: na
Organization: Stephen F. Austin State University

In article <1992Oct5.232344.8894@cs.wayne.edu>, dfl@math.wayne.edu (David Frohardt-Lane) writes:
> In article <1992Oct5.000446.1353@ccsvax.sfasu.edu> z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu writes:
>>In article <1992Oct4.175653.337@cs.wayne.edu>, dfl@math.wayne.edu (David Frohardt-Lane) writes:
>>> 
>>> RC/27 predicts how many runs a team of that player would score per game.
>>> Walks would be more valuable in a lineup of 9 Frank Thomas's than they
>>> would be in a lineup of 9 Scott Livingstone's, because Thomas is better
>>> at driving in runners than Livingstone.  But in real life, a walk from
>>> Livingstone is just as valuable as one from Thomas.
>>
>>	Its just that for Thomas its pretty routine, but for Livingstone its
>>about as commmon as Ed Hermann stealing a base.
> 
> That's true, but has nothing to do with what I'm saying.  What I meant
> was that each individual walk Frank Thomas gets gives him more runs
> created than it would give a lesser player, because RC is assuming that
> the rest of the lineup is made up of Thomas clones.

	Okay, I left out the ':-)' at the end of that line. I wasn't debating
what RC/27 does/does not mean.

Brandon Cope

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt "Some Guy" Bose)
Subject: Re: Astros
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 08:09:22 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

In article <BvA143.5sM@rice.edu> tomscud@ruf.rice.edu (Thomas Reid Scudder) writes:
>What does anyone think of their chances next season?  It looks like they may
>even have a chance to contend, especially if Atlanta moves to the East.
>(Of course, they may also be lucky this year... does anyone have their stats
>in 1 run games (the surest way to gauge how lucky a team is overall)

It won't happen, and the reason is pitching.  The Astros have he worst starting
staff in the National League, pure and simple.  Pete Harnisch isn't bad, I'll
admit, and the farm system may not be as barren as it looked at AAA.  The only
pitcher at AA I like is Hartgraves, and that only because he's a lefty.  Maybe
Brian Williams can get better, but I'm not impressed too much with Kile.  Good
pitchers step forward, not back.  Despite the good bullpen work, a better lefty
reliever is needed.  The offense has holes at catcher, short, and the corner
outfield spots.  I can more easily believe that Ken Caminiti and Craig
Biggio can contribute to a contender than I could have at the beginning of the
year.  With good defense, Steve Finley is adequate in center.  The power of
Bagwell is good, but the poster boy for MLEs needs to up his average some.

Don't get me wrong; the offense is better than it looks due to the Dome.  The
infield situation is a good one, since the Biggio gamble appears to be working
so far.  I'll wait for the DA #s to make final judgement.  However, Gonzalez
and Anthony either have to be able to knock a ball out of ANY park, or they
need to improve their OBPs.  Right now neither of them are connecting enough to
justify the outs they make on offense.  With continued improvement for two
more years, I can see the Astros contending.  I think they'll be better NEXT
year, anyway.

-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) *  kbos@carina.unm.edu * Make outs, not walks!
Keeper of the R.S.BB FAQ, and Junior Stathead {tm} * Yay!  Gary Blickhan's back!
Be kind...don't disillusion the RBI-lovers. * Net.Agent, "Doublin" David Rossing
I'd rather see Doug Dascenzo pitch than suffer through Roger McDowell's batting.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Bruce M Hasch)
Subject: Re: Inevitable changes
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: The Johns Hopkins University - HCF
Distribution: na
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 23:16:00 GMT

In article <1992Sep30.110755.1610@abo.fi>, MLINDROOS@finabo.abo.fi (Marcus Lindroos INF) writes...
> 
>All of you forgot the most obvious thing to do - dropping that ridiculous "World
>Championship" claim. Don't get me wrong - baseball is an international game
>and the major leagues are big business not only in the States, but the World
>Series is *N O T* a world/international sports event. It's the
>national baseball championship of North America - nothing more, nothing less. 
>MLB is making a mockery of a title that should be reserved for international
>competition. They should invite Japanese teams to play against the "World
>Series" winners or shut up. To non-Americans, the so-called "World Series" 
>(the name, that is) reeks of artificial hype and conservative American 
>ignorance towards the rest of the world.  
> 
>MARCU$

It's rare for me. But Flame On.

A) The World Series has been around, and called such, for about 90 years.  
Tradition means a lot in baseball--if we named the "Championship of North
American Baseball" the World Series TODAY, maybe your statements would be
justified.

B) International Competition?  What, we should invite the Japanese champion to
play a series against the WS champion?  So we could win 4 18-0 games?  If you
think that wouldn't happen, you need to buy a clue.  MLB teams have sent a lot
of failed prospects and mediocrities to Japan, and almost every one of them
has become a star calibre player in the Japanese League.  Even Fat Jim Traber 
and Lumberin' Larry Sheets were good.  All of this in spite of a lot of stories
heard (can anyone verify?) about anti-foreigner bias in the Japanese Leagues.

C) I DO hope we will see a true World Series in my lifetime, but it's still 
going to be a LONG time before the rest of the world catches up to MLB in
baseball talent.  Don't kid yourself.  MLB IS the best league in the world,
and there's NO way any team is going to beat our champion for a LONG time.
Especially when we're pulling talent not only from the US, but Canada, the
Dominican Republic, Mexico, and others.  If Cuba reforms anytime in the 
near future, this will add still further strength to MLB, as quite a few
talented players would be added to the rosters of MLB teams.  

     I hate to sound like a rah-rah American, but when I see clowns like this
post typical Anti-American and Anti-MLB drivel, I feel obligated to respond...

Flame Off.  Now back to the Glavine/Maddux/Bonds/Sheffield/Pendleton/Clemens/
Mussina/Eckersley/McDowell/Morris NOT! civil discussions :-)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bruce 'Bill Ripken would be an all star in the Japanese League--wait, that's
a pretty good idea...' Hasch                      hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu
From: epp@mala.bc.ca (Lorne Epp)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Swing! Alfredo Swing!
Date: 28 Sep 92 18:23:44 -0700
Distribution: usa
Organization: Malaspina College

In article <1992Sep28.234158.16702@cbfsb.cb.att.com>, lawson@cbnewsf.cb.att.com (thomas.lawson) writes:
> From what I read in the paper, the scene was like this:
> Blue Jays over Yanks 9-0 in the top of the 5th
> Its been pouring all game.  Gaston tells his boys not
> to take close pitches.  Griffin swings at the first pitch
> from Cadaret (not in the strike zone.)  Cadaret bounces
> the next pitch to Griffin (he's pissed.)  Griffin fouls
> off the next pitch.  Cadaret throws one high and outside
> (OVER the catcher.) Griffin swings anyway and walks back
> to the dugout.  THe catcher retrieves the ball and throws
> to Mattingly who does not immediately touch first.
> This is when the umps called time for a two hour rain
> delay, jeopardizing the Jays 9-0 lead (and Morris' 20th
> win.)  The umps did not want the game to become a farce.
> 

Shouldn't the ump have called Griffin out immediately for
abandoning his attempt to reach first base?  I'm pretty
sure there's a rule to that effect.

> THL
-- 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lorne Epp                                               epp@mala.bc.ca
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: chead@kean.ucs.mun.ca
Subject: Alfredo Griffin
Organization: Memorial University. St.John's Nfld, Canada
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 13:35:06 GMT

 I cannot understand why so many people are dumping on Alfredo Griffin.
 Sure he had his bad moments when he first started filling in for Manny
 Lee but he sure has held his ground lately.  Defensively, I think he
 has adequately handled the shortstop position after getting used to 
 day to day playing. Offensively, he has been better than a lot of people 
 think lately.  Coming into last night's game he was BATTING .393 in the
 last ten games.  Pretty good for a number 9 hitter.


 Avid Blue Jays Fan!!
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: paladin@leland.Stanford.EDU (Jason Gische)
Subject: Re: Inevitable changes
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 92 20:45:44 GMT

In article <17700@ucdavis.ucdavis.edu> zuhars@madrone.eecs.ucdavis.edu (Gary Didi Seven Huckabay) writes:
>Ken "They don't call me overnight for nothin'" Emery writes:
>>I think if anything major is going to be done on the restructuring 
>>of baseball the national and american leagues should be junked and 
>>and 4 regional leagues should be set up.  They should have 8 teams 
>>each and play 154 game schedules.
>
>Sounds reasonable, but I would like to see at least SOME crossover in
>terms of scheduling...and a league consisting entirely of western
>teams is eventually going to suffer in terms of revenue.
>
>How about this:
>
>	West          Midwest         South          East
>      California      Chicago         Atlanta      New York
>      Oakland         St. Louis       Tampa        New York
>      San Diego       Kansas City     Miami        Boston
>      Seattle         Minnesota       New Orleans  Pittsburgh
>      Portland        Cincinnati      Charlotte    Philadelphia
>      Chicago (AL)    Cleveland       Houston      Toronto
>      Los Angeles     Detroit         Texas        Montreal
>      Bay Area II     Milwaukee       Phoenix      Baltimore
>
I liked this idea except for one snag.
The South division has FIVE new franchises (four if the move of SF goes
through as planned.)  Some measure of restructuring would have to 
occur to fix that.  Otherwise it sounds like a plan.  I can't ever see
the owners agreeing to it (especially the revenue sharing) but it looks
good from a fan's perspective.

Jason Gische
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tomscud@ruf.rice.edu (Thomas Reid Scudder)
Subject: Re: The Superlatives of the NL
Organization: Rice University
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 1992 08:19:22 GMT

In article <ahn-041092012617@branford-college-node.net.yale.edu> ahn@pop.cis.yale.edu (Eugene R. Ahn) writes:
>Best second half pitcher: Doug Drabek (again)
I think Tim Wakefield (sp?) deserves consideration here... 
>Best rookie starting pitcher: Rheal Cormier (what a 2nd half!)
Again, Wakefield deserves a look... 
>Most likely pitcher to get rocked (on the team for a while): Kyle Abbott
As an Astros fan, I'd favor Ryan Bowen for this one, despite his limited
playing time... anyone with an ERA over 12 deserves some note, and he DID
stick around long enough to lose 7 games... 
>
>MVP: Terry Pendleton (the core of the Atlanta Braves each day)
Barry Bonds... the best player in the majors... Atlanta would probably have
won the West without Pendleton, but where would the Pirates be without Bonds?
>Best hitter: Gary Sheffield (great in the clutch, superior power, average,
>RBI
Bonds...  Led the NL in slugging AND OBP... Sheffield did better in the big
media stats, but Bonds was better overall... 
>Best power-speed hitter: Barry Bonds (waaah! they're pitching around me!)
See above... B-) 
>Best leadoff man: Bip Roberts
withholding judgement, but Craig Biggio and Brett Butler were both pretty good
>Best rookie hitter: Eric Karros
Heh... I'll let Nelson Lu argue with you about this one... You seem to value
the big media stats (HR, RBI, BA) over the "stathead" stats (OBP and SLG) 
>
>--
>Eugene "Mos Eisley" Ahn     ahn@suncis.cis.yale.edu
>"What did you think of that reply?"
>"No sir. I don't like it."

Tom Scudder
tomscud@ruf.rice.edu

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt "Some Guy" Bose)
Subject: Re: NL ROY: More Fuel for Debate
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 92 21:12:59 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

In article <1992Sep29.193710.18699@leland.Stanford.EDU> claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:

>Show your work.
>
What, now your name is Carl???

>"MLV is a perfect stat." - John Stuart Mill
>
Actually, that was Edmund Burke...


-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) * kbos@carina.unm.edu * Make..oh, you know.---
-"The fatal tendency of mankind to leave off thinking about a thing when it is--
--no longer doubtful is the cause of half their errors.  The cause of the other-
---half can be attributed to playing Jose Offerman at short." - John Stuart Mill
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols)
Subject: Re: Better Than Runs II
Organization: Adobe Systems Incorporated
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 22:58:14 GMT

In article <92274.130423IOR@SLACVM.SLAC.STANFORD.EDU> Thomas Hyer <IOR@SLACVM.SLAC.STANFORD.EDU> writes:
>Please, people, if you don't understand what I'm saying,
>do me a favor -- assume it's you, not me.

What's wrong with what we *are* doing: asking you to *explain* what you're
saying.  I still don't find it very clear.

>The question I asked was:  (i) how many games is a given
>number of runs worth,

Just to make sure we're talking about the same things, when I hear this
question, what I hear is "if team A scored X more runs over a season, that
would tend to lead to winning Y more games".  Is that what you're asking?  

>Gidi Avraham kindly provided me with the distribution of
>runs scored per inning, from which I obtained:
>
>  Margin              Probability
>  ------              -----------
>    0 (extra innings)   .107
>+1 (or -1)              .102
>+/- 2                   .089
>+/- 3                   .073
>+/- 4                   .057
>+/- 5                   .042

Sorry, but this table isn't clear to me.  What are these probabilities of?
Is this the margin at the end of the game?  Of the inning?

>  Thus we would expect 20.4% of all games to be decided
>by one run in regulation.  (This differs from the 27.8%
>Gidi gives because it does not include the extra-inning
>games, and because of a slight downward systematic error
>from averaging NL and AL statistics.)
>
>  Now, how many wins are two extra runs worth?  First,
>you change 10.2% of the games from outright losses to
>outright wins.  Then you add half of the games you would
>have lost by 2, which now go to extra innings, and half
>the extra-inning games, which you now win outright.  Thus:
>
>  Runs    Wins
>  ----    ----
>   1      .104
>   2      .200
>   3      .281
>   4      .346
>   5      .396
>       .
>       .
>       .
>  30ish   .500

This comes up with a quite different answer than most of the other research
I've seen on this subject, which concluded that 10 extra runs was about 1
extra win.

>That is, if a team was spotted three runs, it would win about
>.781 of its games (against equal opposition; Sherri Nichols
>and Dr. Dave should now go and look up `thought experiment').

This is uncalled for.  Your thought experiment suffered from major flaws,
and we pointed them out.  We did not do so in an abusive manner, and we
didn't accuse you of being ignorant.

Sherri Nichols
snichols@adobe.com
Date: Thursday, 1 Oct 1992 00:38:58 EST
From: <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: the mother of all statistical analyses.

in my free time next season, i would like to create the mother of all
statistical analyses.  to do this, i need play-by-plays of each game;
box scores just won't do.  does anyone know how i would go about getting
play-by-plays of each game?
Date: Tuesday, 29 Sep 1992 23:19:50 EST
From: <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: minnie minoso

who is this minnie minoso dude, why did the white sox bring him out of
a twelve year retirement to give him eight at bats, why did they then
bring him out of his second retirement four years later to give him
two more at bats, and are there any plans to bring him back again, now
in his seventies (well, soon to be) ?
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: kubey@sgi.com (Ken Kubey)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Bonds "choke"?
Date: 5 Oct 92 14:47:30 GMT
Organization: Silicon Graphics, Inc., Mountain View, CA

In article <1992Oct4.214410.23833@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>In article <92277.182016JPIERCE@MIAMIU.BITNET> Jeff Pierce <JPIERCE@MIAMIU.BITNET> writes:
>>I believe that the most recent Elias mentioned that Bonds is tied with
>>Gene Tenace for consecutive hitless ABs with runners on base in league
>>championship play (0 for 16 last year and 0 for 4 in his final ABs in
>>1990).  Any guess as to how far he may stretch it this year?
>
>Didn't Tenace go on to have a superlative Series?

Yes, but I would like to point out that Tenace was a catcher (i.e. he
was there mainly for defense) and that his team won.

>Or is it just that the World Series is less pressure than the LCS?

I've heard players and former players say that.   Could be true.

>Or could it be, just maybe, that if you take 270 players and have them
>face the top pitching staffs in the league in short series there is
>a good random chance that two of them will go 0 for 16?

Sure.  Note that we are really talking about 0-20.
Anyone know Gene Tenace's overall BA for the years in question?  

If my calculator and brain are working right, the chance of a .300 hitter
going 0-20 is 0.000798 or 0.0798%.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Address:    kubey@sgi.com       |  without the express written consent of
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