From: rpitts@emperor.gatech.edu (Richard Pitts)
Newsgroups: talk.abortion
Subject: Allan Guttmacher/Georgia/Third Trimester Statistics (was Re: THE RAPE/INCEST MYTH.)
Date: 31 Jul 92 14:38:15 GMT
Organization: CERL-EE, Georgia Institue of Technology

In article <1992Jul31.003850.19368@panix.com> eeb1@panix.com (Elizabeth Bartley) writes:
>In article <64693@hydra.gatech.EDU>
>rpitts@emperor.gatech.edu (Richard Pitts) writes:
>>In article <1992Jul30.005152.14195@panix.com>
>>eeb1@panix.com (Elizabeth Bartley) writes:
>>>In article <64100@hydra.gatech.EDU>
>>>> = rpitts@emperor.gatech.edu (Richard Pitts) writes:

>>What is the definition of third trimester?  Abortion in Georgia is
>>advertised in the paper upto and (I believe) including the 27th week.
>>Abortions after the 27th week, which is about 5 weeks past the current
>>medical ability to sustain life, are possibly lumped into the third 
>>trimester statistics.

>The usage I've seen is seventh through ninth month, which would be ...
>(30 * 6 / 7 = 25.714 ...) approximately the twenty-sixth week and up.

I lost you on this calculation - should it be (39weeks * 6/9 = 26)?

Anyway, the point is that abortions are available thru 26 weeks here
in Atlanta and I'm sure the line is a little fuzzy about when it is
past the 26th week.  Which is several weeks past what is now a surviable
gestation time of 22 weeks - the are some great drugs out now that
really help the lungs open up - many are surviving today that would
not have 10 years ago.

>>Georgia law says abortions in third trimester (viability, >= 27th week)
>>are restricted to 'hospital' environments.  But the statistics I have
>>from the Georgia Department of Human Resources lumps all abortion
>>that occur after or during the 21st week into one number - I wonder why.

>My statistics, too, and I don't know why either.

I spoke to one of the doctors with Georgia's Human Resources Department
and he said that there is just not much information out there to 
be able to determine what is actually going on.

Are these numbers missing from the files - I'd think not - isn't it
more likely they are not published, for a reason - why stop at 21 weeks?

>>>>I have not seen this in print anywhere - are these new statistics?
>>>>As stated above I've seen numbers from 0.5% to 1%.

>>>I've never seen a number above .1%.  Only .8% of abortions are performed
>>>after the *21st* week (outdated figure - 1985 - but the trends were headedd
>>>in the earlier-abortions direction, anyway), let alone the 26th week.

Again, one hospital in Georgia has an ad in the Yellow Pages that says the
do abortions thru 26 weeks - most others stop at 21 or 22 weeks.  But
the statistics show 1.9% of induced abortions in Georgia occur at or after
the 21st week.

Here are some ads lines:

   "abortion (up to 19 weeks awake or asleep)",
   "low cost abortions in a private practice setting - terminations Mon-Sat",
   "normal stay 1-2 hours",
   "awake or asleep - 7 wks to 23 wks - insurance & credit cards accepted",
   "1st & early mid-trimester",
   "abortion thru 22 weeks",
   "specializing in abortion care through 26 weeks", and
   "1st and 2nd trimester abortions".


The following are statistics on induced abortions in the
state of Georgia for 1990.  From the Georgia Department of 
Human Resources.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
     Direct from the Chart    |      
Weeks of                      |      Change (decrease) from
Gestation        # abortions  |      week to week (my calculations)
                              |
 8 or less         14,464     |      not computed, too many weeks
 9                  5,928     |      not computed, not enough info
10                  4,857     |      1,071 = (5,928 - 4,857)
11                  3,880     |        977 = (4,857 - 3,880)
12                  2,564     |      1,316 = (3,880 - 2,564)
13                  1,449     |      1,115 = (2,564 - 1,449)
14                    992     |        457 = (1,449 -   992)
15                    719     |        273 = (  992 -   719)
16                    494     |        225 = (  719 -   494)
17                    407     |         87 = (  494 -   407)
18                    333     |         74 = (  407 -   333)
19                    294     |         39 = (  333 -   294) 
20                    238     |         56 = (  294 -   238)
21 or greater         746     |      not computed, too many weeks
Unknown             1,880     |      not computed, not enough info
TOTAL              39,245     |
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The table has the numbers broken down by race.  The total for 
whites is 20,465 (~52%), for blacks is 17,230 (~44%) and for 
others is 1,550 (~4%).

1.9% of the abortions were performed during and after the 21st week.

39,245*50 states = 1,962,250 (which is indicates that Georiga may
be a little high on average, since some say 1,500,000 abortions/year.)

Note that weeks 22, 23, 24, 25, and so on are not listed individually.

If we take what little trend there is and break apart the 746 abortions
for 21 plus weeks, we could get 200 abortions at 21 weeks, 175 at 22 weeks,
150 at 23 weeks, and 125 at 24 weeks, which still leaves 100 abortions
after 24 weeks in the state of Georgia alone.   This may even be a
little generous, since the change from week to week seemed to be generally
declining.  There probably is a peak at 26 weeks here in Georgia and these
numbers I estimated for 21-24 could be a little high.

Where do someone get the figures of less than 100 third trimester 
abortions per year?  I know Allan Guttmacher says this, but the
stats I have do not point to this.

The doctor I spoke with (mentioned above) said he thought that 100 was
a low number.  He said he was interested in how AG was able to give
out this and how they defined 'abortion' and possibly 'third-trimester'.

This doctor didn't think the mechanisms were in place to get a number
like this for induced abortions of a live fetus, since they are all 
listed as a cummulative or combined number regardless of the reason 
for the abortion.

In fact, the doctor said that if I could give him a name at AG, he
would like to personally call and talk to the person.

Can someone give me some specifics on who, what, when, and where?

>>Georgia statistics for 1990 show 746 abortions at or after the 21st week
>>out of a total of 39,245 for the year.

>>That is 1.9% - where do you get your numbers?

>1990 World Almanac.  (Nationwide figure.)

Could you give the numbers for the World Almanac?  Thanks.

Sincerely,
Richard Pitts

-- 
rpitts@cerl.gatech.edu       |    
Atlanta, GA                --|-- 
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