From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 11 Nov 1992 05:49:29 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 315, 11/10/92
10.7 FLUX=136.4  90-AVG=124        SSN=117      BKI=2233 2323  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B3.6     FLU1=4.6E+05  FLU10=2.1E+04  PKI=3233 2323  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=019,014,020,024,013,025,015,029   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.9   @ 0959UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.1   @ 0358UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0045UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 1035UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1225UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1810UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55429NT @ 1419UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1658UT  BOUTF-AVG=55421NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+144NT@ 1919UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0853UT  G7-AVG=+085,+032,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+159NT@ 1918UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-024NT@ 0050UT  G6-AVG=+102,-012,+030
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,145,145;SESC:140,145,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,015,015
    KFCST=2225 5222 2225 5111  27DAY-AP=016,031   27DAY-KP=3333 3235 5545 4334
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1745-1812UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7330 (S08W49)
       STABILIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT WAS CREDITED WITH A
       C1/SF FLARE AT 0811Z. FOUR OTHER C-CLASS FLARES WERE
       UNCORRELATED WITH ACTIVE REGIONS. REGION 7335 (S17E10) GREW IN
       SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. THE EAST LIMB DISPLAYED SEVERAL BRIGHT
       SURGES IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. A NEW REGION NUMBER WAS
       ASSIGNED: 7337 (N06E80). THIS REGION PRODUCED 3 M-FLARES LAST
       ROTATION.

            SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
       LOW. REGION 7335 HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN
       ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.

            THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
       LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS
       EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING FROM 15-1800Z. A
       DISAPPEARING FILAMENT OF 40 SQUARE DEGREES LEFT THE SE QUADRANT
       (S02E74) OVERNITE.

            GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
       EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

            EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV

                             CLASS M    20/20/20
                             CLASS X    05/05/05
                             PROTON     05/05/05
                             PCAF       GREEN

            GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV

                        A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                20/20/20
                        MINOR STORM           10/10/10
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

                        B.  HIGH LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                35/35/35
                        MINOR STORM           15/15/10
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7330  S09W49  265  0310 DAO  09  015 BETA
7334  N13E04  212  0170 DAO  10  016 BETA
7335  S17E11  205  0560 DKI  10  028 BETA-GAMMA
7336  N06W60  276  0060 CAO  05  007 BETA
7337  N07E80  136  0070 HSX  04  001 ALPHA
7333  N09W39  255                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 NOVEMBER TO 13 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7314 N16   109
7327 N08   105
7316 S10   098


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 2345 2352 2357 7334  N10W01 C2.2  1F    140 39


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
10/ 1935     1950     2048                LDE    B8.1   72


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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