From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 19 Nov 1992 07:06:59 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: Todays 20:00 UTC 10.7 cm solar radio flux was flare enhanced at 182.7
      sfu.  The 18:00 UTC measurement of 156.2 sfu is being used instead,
      since it was not flare enhanced.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 323, 11/18/92
10.7 FLUX=156.2  90-AVG=124        SSN=131      BKI=2001 1220  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B6.7     FLU1=6.1E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2111 3221  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=011,004,004,008,006,010,013,004   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=01:051
 XRAY-MAX= M1.3   @ 1956UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.2   @ 1755UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 2330UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1510UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1735UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1455UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 1410UT   BOUTF-MIN=55389NT @ 1951UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1836UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+007NT@ 2347UT  G7-AVG=+086,+028,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+106NT@ 0028UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-015NT@ 0351UT  G6-AVG=+092,-012,+009
 FLUXFCST=STD:160,165,170;SESC:160,165,170 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,007/010,010,010
    KFCST=2222 3222 2222 3222  27DAY-AP=007,003   27DAY-KP=2101 3323 1111 1111
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**TENFLR:350SFU@1929UTC,DUR=44MINUTES
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7345 (S24E48)
       produced a long-duration M1.3/2N flare at 18/1956Z. A 350 sfu
       tenflare accompanied the event. The region was stable in terms
       of size and complexity prior to the flare. Regions 7341 (S16W49)
       and 7346 (S07E59) displayed minor growth. No new Regions were
       assigned. Note: the observed 10.7 cm flux (182.7 sfu) was flare
       enhanced.  The 1800 UTC measurement is likely more reliable and
       measured 156.2 sfu.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7345 may produce an isolated M-class
       flare. Otherwise, C-class flares are expected from Regions
       7341, 7345, and 7346.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly quiet levels. Periods of unsettled
       levels may occur at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 19 nov-21 nov

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 nov-21 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7337  N09W25  136  0040 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7340  S08E05  106  0010 BXO  06  005 BETA
7341  S16W49  160  0200 DAO  07  009 BETA
7342  S08W19  130  0050 DAO  06  013 BETA
7344  S15E28  083  0000 BXO  02  002 BETA
7345  S24E48  063  0430 EAI  12  012 BETA
7346  S07E58  053  0390 EAO  13  018 BETA
7339  S18W68  179                    PLAGE
7343  N08W07  118                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 NOVEMBER TO 21 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7323 S15   016


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1918 1956 2050 7345  S24E46 M1.3  2N   2000 350


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
18/B0620             A0911       S22E51   DSF
18/ 1918     1956     2050       S24E46   LDE    M1.3   92
18/B2146              2157       N05W23   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
67   N36W64 N36W64 N51W90 N51W90  198  ISO   POS   012 10830A
68   N09E24 S05E04 N08W00 N15E15  109  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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