From: beaurega@ireq.hydro.qc.ca (Denis Beauregard)
Newsgroups: can.politics
Subject: Re: Election sun rising
Date: 11 Sep 92 15:49:58 GMT
Organization: Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Quebec, Varennes, Canada

In article <1992Sep10.154248.601@bnr.ca> yali@bnrca (Yawar Ali) writes:
>In article <BuBpMo.I7v@ireq.hydro.qc.ca>, beaurega@ireq.hydro.qc.ca (Denis Beauregard) writes:
>|> I don't agree:
>|> In article <1992Sep8.195838.18202@bnr.ca> yali@bnrca (Yawar Ali) writes:
>|> >My crystal ball shows the following:
>|> >
>|> >The new constitutional deal passes the referendum.
>|> Won't pass.  At less 2 provinces will change there mind and a few
>|> Quebec liberal will say there are against, enough so that majority
>|> of Quebec, which is against today, will stay again.  And if it does not
>|> pass in Quebec, it is useless to pass in Canada :-)
>|>
>
>You are correct when you say that if the deal fails to pass in Quebec it
>doesn't matter whether it passes in ROC. However, don't underestimate the
>combined power of the recession, constitutional fatigue, and sophisticated
>Federal and Provincial Liberal propaganda campaigns to dissuade Quebecers
>from voting "no".

If the No camp made clear the following, the agreement will not pass:
1- The question is not Yes or No against Quebec secession (many will vote
yes because they are confused at that point)
2- In 1980, the Federal/No camp used 2 or 3 times the authorized amount
3- Even with 50%, majority of Quebec francophones are against.  
4- While the question is shorter in 1992, in 1980, it was self-contained.
In 1992, the actual question is too long to be published in a newspaper.
This is meaningful.

>|> PQ changes leader and is elected.  PQ begins negociation for a true
>|> new deal : all power for Quebec and Quebec decides in her land.
>|> Assimetrical federalism will be the debate (artificial renewal did
>|> fail, don't you agree?).
>|> 
>
>Why would the PQ change its leader if the deal fails to pass, as you think 
>it will?

In a short term, if BQ has to delete itself, Lucien Bouchard who came
to Ottawa to defend Quebec will hardly accept to come back to PC.
A problem with PQ is that Parizeau has no charism.  See the portray, depending
on the week, PQ gots the majority or comes close of expressed vote intention,
and leader has no charism.  Give PQ a leader with charism, and Bouchard is that
man, and PQ will win the next election with a comfortable majority.  Just
think that Bouchard was unknown not so far ago.

One reason if deal does not pass and Bouchard would lead PQ: until now,
Bouchard and Parizeau were rarely presented together.  No way to compare
(except for journalists).  Now, they will appear often side by side and
for the good of Quebec nationalism, it will become obvious that leadership
of Bouchard will be very useful.  


>As for assymetrical federalism, I agree that it would be preferable to the
>direction that the current deal takes. Unfortunately, assymetrical federalism
>seems to be politically unacceptable in ROC, and would be even more so if
>the current deal were rejected by Quebec, or indeed if they accepted the 
>deal now but came back asking for more soon afterwards.

Quebec being different is also unacceptable.  It is part of Quebec Nationalism
Credo : a Quebec alone will not be under some anti-Quebec administration.
a Quebec in Canada has to deal with persons that does not accept what is
Quebec (i.e. identity, history, composition, etc.).

>Yawar Ali  				
>Bell-Northern Research				EMail: yali@bnr.ca
>Ottawa, Ontario, Canada	K1Y 4H7			(613-)763-7741


-- 
  \_\    Denis Beauregard  *  internet:beaurega@ireq.hydro.qc.ca
 /   \   Genealogiste officiel : Beauregard/Jarret/Jarest/Vincent
J   __>  Un Quebec renouvele dans une Amerique renovee
\_.-===                                                  Opinions ? Et pis non !
Newsgroups: can.politics