From: dab6@po.CWRU.Edu (Douglas A. Bell)
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Subject: 1993 will be a good year for OS/2
Date: 27 Jan 1993 02:48:15 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio (USA)
Reply-To: dab6@po.CWRU.Edu (Douglas A. Bell)
NNTP-Posting-Host: thor.ins.cwru.edu


When OS/2 came out last year, it was in a difficult spot.  It was rushed
out the door while it's competitor, windows 3.1, had all the time it needed
to polish rough edges and get ready to take on os/2.  OS/2 was able to
survive.

This year, the opposite is true.  OS/2 has plenty of time to fix bugs
while microsoft scrambles to release a fledgling windows NT, if they can.
This tactical advantage will prove to help os2 make great gains this year.

OS/2 is going to do well in the next 12-18 months because of the 
competition it will be facing.  Windows 4.0 is planned for so far in the
future that no one dare guess as to when microsoft might release it.
Solaris and Nextstep for x86 platforms have joined the ranks of true
vaporware.  Apple seems to be juicing the macintosh line for capital
before they make the jump to the power pc platform in 1991.  Amigas
have never been main stream.  I don't consider unix as a mass market
option.  All that leaves is windows NT.

Assuming that Microsoft is able to scrape up a reasonably bug free
version of windows NT by July, it is still going to lose.  Microsoft
looks like they are trying to use NT to make another break into the
networking field.  They are going to fail.  Companies have just invested
too much money in netware, which is stable.  Why would they want to change
within the next two years?  Too many IS workers are certified netware
engineers.  They are not going to look once an windows NT, much less 
twice.  Microsoft doesn't understand the dynamics of the network market
and once again are going to fail to gain market share.  Windows NT is
going to be lucky to have the same measure of success as Windows for
Workgroups  (or as some are now saying Windows for Warehouses, because
that's where all of the unsold copies are sitting.)  Netware 4.0 and 
Vines 5.5 will completely eclipse NT.

O.K. So that leaves the possible desktop market for windows NT.  It
doesn't have a chance.  Windows 3.1 and os/2 2.0 are going to run
circles arround windows NT as far as system performance goes.  At least
os/2 offers a nice new interface.  Poor DOS compatablity, staggering
system resources, and large price tag will keep it out of the home market 
except for the most experimental home users.  Windows NT is about
24 months ahead of the times as far as hardware requirements.  OS/2
is going to chew it up and spit it back out durring this period.  As for
user interfaces, windows NT is about 2 years behind os/2.  NT certainly
has no special no attraction there.  Windows NT is not even going to be 
able to compete with os/2.

What can we expect to happen in the market place in the next 12-18
months?  OS/2 is going to be the winner by default.  It is going to
be the only reasonable high end x86 desktop option durring that time.  
New 32 bit native apps will arrive.  Hardware drivers will arrive.
Windows 3.1 will start to fall away as it begins to show it's age.
OS/2 will be a strong force in the industry.
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