From: anasaz!anasaz.briand@enuucp.eas.asu.edu (Brian Douglass)
Subject: Re: China and Expansionism
Organization: Anasazi, Inc.  Phoenix, Az
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 13:14:48 GMT


From anasaz!anasaz.briand@enuucp.eas.asu.edu (Brian Douglass)

In article <BuF3CD.8ML@lawday.DaytonOH.NCR.COM> shane <DEICHMAN@cisco.nosc.mil> writes:

A very interesting analysis of Chinese future capabilities.  A few notes
I'd like to add and comment on.

>  In 1969, during the peak of the Sino-Soviet split, Red 
>Chinese troops marched into Russia to take back some dirt they 
>felt was rightfully theirs.  
	and
>The Chinese smarted from that 
>defeat for some ten years, until they thought they'd play some 
>hardball with the Vietnamese in 1979.

While both of these events are accurately described, they are both,
somewhat, "ancient" history.  The military organization and capability of
the PRA have changed quite a bit in the intervening period.  However, the PRA 
is still essentially a defensive/internal fighting force.

>  But wait!  China is a NUCLEAR power!  What about that?  
[deleted stuff]
>Their missile force is archaic, with 1950s-esque targeting 
>systems and single warhead technology, not to mention unstable
>liquid propellants that have to be fueled on the pad.  Their 
>medium range missile force would probably do more damage to 
>China than to any adversary....

You know, that Russian/Chinese border you mentioned earlier.  Well, goods
of all types flow pretty easily through now with little checks, mostly
because it is locals that are running the trade.  Well, for any FUSSR
scientist whose out of job, this would be an easy way of finding a new
employer.  Also, North Korea does assemblage and manufacture of SCUDs.  As
the PRC is their principal ally from here on, don't be surprised to see an
advancement in launch, guidance, and packaging technologies.  The southern
province of China, next to Hong Kong, is a boom region with lots of
technology flowing through.  "The times they are a changin'"

[deleted stuff]
>their 
>military lacks the most essential component of any force 
>enduring the growing pains of expansionism -- MOBILITY.  Most 
>of the Chinese regulars have to march wherever they attack, so 
>any conquest of Indonesia or Australia would require them to 
>get their feet wet... :-)  Remember, amateurs talk tactics -- 
>professionals talk logistics!

This is very true.  Tiannemen Square is a reasonable example.  Troops had
to be shipped in by train.  Again, there is no guarantee that this will
remain the case.  As Desert Storm proved that mobility/logistics/high-tech 
mechanized forces can wallop a numerically superior force, China's whole 
defense strategy comes into question.  Expect a great modernization program 
by the PRA.

A good joke from Command magazine illustrates traditional Chinese strategy:
During the Sino-Soviet conflict, the first day, the Chinese had a million
men captured by the Soviets.  On the second day, another million men.  On
the third, the same, and so forth for week.  After capturing 7 million
Chinese, the Soviet commander received a message from his Chinese counterpart 
asking, "Ready to surrender?"

Now that's a logistical nightmare!

-- 
"... For I have sworn upon the alter of god, eternal hostility against
every form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson
Brian Douglass		briand@anasazi.com 	602-870-3330 X657


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