From: malenovi@plains.NoDak.edu (Malenovic Nikola V.)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.yugoslavia
Subject: Hunger In Serbia ( VREME NDA 15 Sep 1992 )
Date: 15 Sep 92 22:02:38 GMT
Article-I.D.: plains.20375
Organization: North Dakota Higher Education Computing Network


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     "Vreme" News Digest Agency                  No. 51, September 14, 1992
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    Hunger In Serbia
    ----------------


                     BURKINA FASO IS A LONG WAY FROM HERE


           With an African living standard which has already become
           our  reality, it  is quite  possible that  a way  out of
           poverty will soon be sought in a Latin American stampede
           through  supermarkets, similar  to those  in Argentina a
                                 few years ago

    Over the  past five years  at least, since  nationalist policies started
    turning  former  Yugoslavia  into  a  quarreling  country  with a deadly
    inflation, at the end of  every summer, economists and sociologists kept
    regularly announcing hot autumns and winters,  saying that we are just a
    step away from a real social explosion. At the time, an average Yugoslav
    was  usually  compared  to  a  poor  soul  falling  from  the  top  of a
    skyscraper,  consoling himself  less than  a second  before hitting  the
    ground by  saying: "Good, I'm  still alive". This  autumn, the story  is
    being repeated, only now, experts are claiming, with much more arguments
    it seems, that we have already  hit the ground, that statistically we no
    longer exist  and that the thundering  of the social explosion  could be
    heard   any  moment   now.  Mr.   Dragomir  Pantic,   director  of   the
    Belgrade-based Institute for social sciences,  claimed last week, on the
    basis of the  results of a public opinion poll,  that Serbia is going to
    experience  an autumn  of social  discontent, while  Stojan Stamenkovic,
    deputy director of the Federal Planning  Institute said the same only in
    somewhat  different words  - "we  are a  month or  two away from general
    poverty".  Those  who  are  paid  to  do  this recently calculated quite
    precisely, on the  basis of the World bank's latest  report that, by the
    end of  the year, the  living standard of  a person living  in the third
    Yugoslavia will  be identical to that  of citizen of Mauritania.  With a
    national income  of 500 dollars per  capita (two years ago  we had 2920,
    and  at  the  beginning  of  this  year  around  1000  dollars)  we will
    officially be living  in poverty, thus proving right  those who say that
    we are in  Europe only geographically and through  our memories, desires
    and wishes.  According to everything  else, primarily due  to the living
    standard and the mutual showdowns  between Yugoslav tribes, we have been
    in Africa  for a long time,  this referring to its  less developed part.
    When  a  few  months  ago  one  of  "VREME's"  journalists described the
    situation  here by  saying "something  like this  can't even  be seen in
    Burkina Faso", in the very next issue  of our magazine we had to publish
    a correction since a connoisseur of the state of affairs in that country
    wrote to us: "I lived in Burkina Faso for four years and I tell you that
    it is better there than it  is here." Over 10 thousand Belgrade families
    are receiving social welfare, many  centers for social work could easily
    work in three shifts and soup kitchens are rallying an increasing number
    of people.  Such kitchens used to  exist only in Belgrade  and Novi Sad,
    but one  was opened in  Vranje recently and  very soon Krusevac  and Nis
    will have  them too. All these  figures and announcements of  the hunger
    that is slowly  creeping into Serbian stomachs is  rooted in nationalism
    because, as  Slobodan Inic has noticed,  in reality, no one  and nothing
    impoverishes a person  as much as nationalism. Even  in short terms, all
    of us,  said Inic, are dead,  disgraced and hungry. If  one does not get
    killed in the  nationalist war, one has good chances  of dying of hunger
    in the  newly created national  and pseudo-national states.  "We will be
    faced  with poverty  as a  peace-time consequence  of nationalism", said
    Inic. The ordinary man best knows how  much more he can take and how big
    his reserves  are, but most people  claim that, with great  effort, they
    can endure only until the end of  the year. After that a social upheaval
    is probably inevitable.  According to a poll conducted  by the Institute
    for social sciences, whose results were  published way back in March, as
    many as 94% of the citizens mentioned poverty, price-hikes and inflation
    as the greatest  problems the country is currently  facing. At the time,
    only three  percent of the  citizens were satisfied  with their economic
    position. In  the past, even  during the greatest  crises, at least  one
    quarter of the population was  satisfied with the economic situation and
    it could rightly be said that such an incredibly low percentage of those
    who  are content  has not  been registered  by any  similar poll  in the
    world.  Since March,  the economic  situation in  Serbia has drastically
    deteriorated   so  that   it  is   logical  that   the  picture  of  the
    dissatisfaction  (or better  to say  despair) is  even worse  than a few
    months ago because of the approaching wave of poverty. It is interesting
    that the  polled citizens could  choose for themselves  and set out  the
    three  problems  mostly  troubling  them  and  that, despite wide-spread
    prejudices  and  an  unheard-of  propaganda  by  the domestic media, the
    national question and  the war were way behind  economic problems. "When
    the results of this poll are compared to those of some others concerning
    the drop in  the popularity of all the  political parties and especially
    political  leaders,  it  can  easily  be  concluded  that  the citizens'
    patience  is running  out, that  the social  fuse is dangerously burning
    down, that the  general discontent is growing and that  Serbia is on the
    threshold of  a real social explosion  with unpredictable consequences",
    said Pantic. "Most of the usual  social buffers are no longer effective.
    One of  them - the  traditional family solidarity,  no longer functions.
    The year was bad  and the village will not be able  to help. Even if the
    crop  was good,  there is  no gasoline  to go  to the  village and bring
    whatever necessary. The  number of refugees who have  to eat is growing.
    The reserves people  keep in their homes are slowly  running out, and it
    is  almost impossible  to renew  them. The  number of  people living  in
    Belgrade is constantly growing, but it  is very indicative that over the
    past few  months the consumption  of bread has  also dropped which  is a
    completely  new phenomenon.  The forth  important buffer  is also slowly
    becoming less  effective - that is,  political events which, up  to now,
    have been pushing aside the question  of bread and, through the skillful
    propaganda  and manipulation  of the  ruling outfits,  were presented as
    being  most  important  for  survival".  Along  with  this,  Pantic also
    mentions the so  far little known fact, established  this June, that 43%
    of the population,  faced with economic despair, is  ready to accept all
    the world community's  conditions for sanctions to be  lifted. Those who
    still waste words  on national dignity and pride,  who include the Serbs
    among "celestial  nations" and keep  declaring war to  Bush and Genscher
    day after  day, will certainly be  surprised by this figure  and also by
    the fact that  only 39% of those polled are  still ready to keep putting
    up with  the sanctions, not  accepting all the  conditions necessary for
    them to be lifted (18% of the  citizens have no opinion on this). Unlike
    Dragomir  Pantic,  certain  analysts   of  the  economic  and  political
    situation here,  despite obvious evidence that  the population will find
    it  difficult to  take it  much  longer,  do not  believe that  a social
    explosion  will necessarily  take place  that soon.  As an  example they
    mention the atmosphere  in lines for gasoline in  which people patiently
    wait for several  hours and are mostly angry with  those are in front of
    them in  the senseless lines, with  the ones who want  to skip the line,
    and even more  with the lucky ones who  don't have to wait in  lines for
    hours at all. Very rarely does someone in those lines show anger with or
    accuse those who are mostly responsible for the imposition of sanctions.
    Like  in  former  socialist  countries,  here  too,  the  line is slowly
    becoming a  model of a  society in which  everyone feels similarly  bad,
    does  not  see  a  possibility  of  opposing  the  situation  and  turns
    frustration into  helplessness or starts hating  others. "There is logic
    in  such contemplation  because we  are already  living in  lines and  a
    society  of  "abnormal  normalities",  but  the  boiling  point  here is
    certainly much lower  than that in the former  East European countries",
    said  Pantic.  "One  should  not  forget  that  we  lived in much better
    conditions, that our people are not used to shortages and lines and that
    they will  certainly not put  up for an  infinitely long period  of time
    with the  present humiliation and withdraw  into resignation. The policy
    of  blaming  someone  else  for  the  sanctions  is short-winded and its
    effects  will soon  disappear.  Social  explosions could  sometimes take
    place even for banal reasons". Bosko Kovacevic, the director of the Open
    University in Subotica, also predicts  that this situation will not last
    long, but he is inclined to believe  that the social bomb, set long ago,
    will not explode before the spring. Kovacevic recalls that over the past
    ten years there  developed very strong mechanisms of  a parallel economy
    which  is beyond  the reach  of the  official state  and of  any kind of
    control.  Even  a   short  glance  at  the  structure   of  the  present
    authorities, he  said, points to the  attempts by those who  have made a
    considerable amount of money in this way, to make everything legitimate.
    At the  moment many others  are also seeking  a way out  of poverty in a
    semi-legal way, but these roads are usually overcrowded so that the only
    thing left for them is direct robbery  which the state is most often not
    able to  punish. "Those who  have made big  money overnight will  slowly
    also strive the obtain political power  and life under sanctions in fact
    suits them",  said Bosko Kovacevic. "Thus  we will have a  new political
    elite that will grow out of an economy which is not legal. However, just
    like the nationalist illusions that  are deliberately being imposed upon
    people in order  for their attention to be  averted from the approaching
    poverty, this story too will not be  able to last forever. The time when
    social peace  could be bought  is inevitably passing".  All of "VREME's"
    interviewees  agree   that  it  is   very  difficult  to   predict  what
    uncontrolled outbursts of anger, caused by economic despair and poverty,
    would look like  and where that avalanche of  discontent could stop. The
    present  authorities would  obviously not   be able  to survive  if they
    fulfilled all  the international community's requests.  In order for the
    people  to be  saved from  the  poverty  they are  being pushed  into by
    nationalists, said Inic,  it will be necessary for  them to change their
    present  views  and  to  reject  those  calling  for war and nationalist
    leaders. Social and  financial poverty, he added, can  sometimes also be
    an opportunity for  people to get rid not just  of their own nationalist
    passions but  primarily of those  who had led  them under those  symbols
    from war to poverty. Such a road is, quite certainly, the most difficult
    one not  just technically but  also psychologically because  it requires
    that  many stand  up primarily  against their  own years long delusions.
    With an African living standard which has already become our reality, it
    is quite  possible that a  way out of  poverty will soon  be sought in a
    Latin  American  stampede  through  supermarkets,  similar  to  those in
    Argentina a  few years ago  when citizens left  devastation behind them,
    stealing everything they came across. Busting into apartments, showdowns
    between gangs of  robbers and extortion have already  become part of our
    reality, and it is also obvious  that smuggling and corruption under the
    state's wing  have never been  more widespread than  today. According to
    the public  opinion poll conducted in  Serbia in March, over  65% of the
    citizens of Serbia believe that the country would never have gotten into
    this  situation if,  in the  beginning, the  army took  things into  its
    hands, arrested and convicted traitors  and established order. This kind
    of  attitude of  an enormous  part of  the electorate  in Serbia, as was
    noticed  by  Srbobran  Brankovic  of  the  Belgrade-based  Institute for
    political studies, is not the best  guarantee that changes could head in
    the direction of a peaceful and democratic transformation. Similar polls
    show that,  for instance, according  to the electorate's  predisposition
    for  being manipulated  and for  accepting anti-democratic orientations,
    south-eastern  Serbia is  probably unique   in the  world. One  thing is
    certain  regarding the  forthcoming unpredictable  autumn -  that no one
    will  even dream  of calling  on  workers  to take  to the  streets like
    before.
                                                        Nenad Lj. Stefanovic

    Endangered Elections

        Speaking to "Vreme",  Dragomir Pantic also set out  the results of a
        poll showing  a constant drop  in the ruling  party's popularity and
        also that the opposition and  institutions of authority do not enjoy
        a great  deal of the citizens'  confidence. These results, according
        to him, are  almost a certain sign that the  citizens of Serbia must
        be offered different solutions and political options. Until recently
        Slobodan Milosevic  was at least  twice as popular  as the party  he
        belonged to  and which he  practically "towed". Now  this difference
        almost  doesn't  exist  and  in  July,  for  instance,  only  14% of
        Belgraders  positively  assessed  his  work.  At  the same time, the
        Socialist Party of Serbia has an  average monthly drop in its rating
        of  half  a  percent.  In  such  a  situation,  considers Pantic, it
        practically  makes  no  difference  for  ruling  party  whether  the
        majority  or the  proportional electoral  system is  used since  its
        advantage is undoubtedly melting away. "If the sanctions continue, I
        am not quite certain that it will be possible to hold elections that
        would be  regular. Without electricity, heating  and the possibility
        of driving to  the polling places, there can hardly  be word of some
        kind of regularity", said Pantic.


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     "Vreme" News Digest Agency                  No. 51, September 14, 1992
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