From: ems@michael.apple.com (E. Michael Smith)
Subject: Re: Running out of oil.  Was Re: Is car pooling for real? (was Re: Are
Organization: Apple Computer Inc, Cupertino, CA
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 19:25:29 GMT

In article <1992Jul29.025327.18853@u.washington.edu> charlesg@milton.u.washington.edu (Charles Grant) writes:
>In article <1992Jul28.023431.16111@michael.apple.com> ems@michael.apple.com (E. Michael Smith) writes:
>
>>So, yes, you are right that someday we will run out of cheap energy.
>>But, no, it won't be in 100 years.  It will be in something on the 
>>order of 5,000+ years (presuming no significant technological advance
>>in that time frame).
>
>You also tacitly assume no significant increase in energy consumption. If
>the current human population is 5*10^9, and the doubling period for the
>population is 50 years, then in 5000 years the population will be
>
>	(5*10^9)*(2^100) ~ 10^40
>
>If each person weighs about 50 kg, then the "mass of humanity" in 5000 years
>is going to be around 10^41 kg. Note that the mass of the earth is only about
>10^25 kg.
>
>Obviously something is going to happen to increase the length of
>the doubling period, but until we figure out what that is, I can't
>put much stock in 5000 year estimates of the earth's resources.

This has already been worked out.  Look up the published works of an
early Economist named Malthus ... :-)

The bottom line is this:  {war, pestilence, famine, plague} pick any
combination.  

It is pretty clear that we have a plague going on (in some parts of 
Africa AIDS is at 50% or so of the mature population.  There WILL be 
a great depopulation of Africa, and maybe South America, by AIDS.  
Ditto for Thailand.)

We have famine in East Africa (where AIDS isn't as prevalent) and
marginal food supplies in some other sub-continents.  Bangaladesh
comes to mind.

War is doing a pretty good job of it in {Iraq, Lebanon, Afganistan, Iran,
Cambodia, ...}. 

That leaves pestilence.  While this used to be hords of locusts, a
good case can be made for {lead, CFC's, smog, pesticides, chain saws, ...}
as being the modern pestilence.  There is ample evidence that this
pestilence is starting to reach critical levels.  Fertility and fecundity
are low among folks with high exposure to environmental toxins.

As I've said before, we are more likely to run out of air than we 
are to run out of fuel.

There is NO energy shortage.  There is an environmental shortage ...
An Malthus will assure that population is kept in check, though
we won't like the way(s) it happens.

For a facinating example of how this works, start a fish tank with a 
live bearing species (mollies work well, as do tilapia).  Just keep
feeding the tank.  You will see the whole cycle happen before your
eyes including war (they start fin-nipping alot), plague (several
diseases will rise to high levels as the tank crowds and the water
quality drops), famine (at a constant food input level), and 
pestilence (at a constant food/fish ratio, the water quality goes
to hell quickly and the high nitrate ratios start to kill fish).

Notice that in non of this have the fish suffered a shortage of 
energy.  (The tank is still lit and warm.  Food is still provided,
except in the constant food scenario.  Water is cleaned at the 
same rate. etc.)  They have suffered a great shortage of environment.
-- 

E. Michael Smith  ems@apple.COM

'Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has
 genius, power and magic in it.'  -  Goethe

I am not responsible nor is anyone else.  Everything is disclaimed.