From: v077mdph@ubvmsb.cc.buffalo.edu (John of Gaunt)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro
Subject: Re: Buffalo Bills
Date: 29 Jul 92 03:21:00 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: University at Buffalo
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41

In article <CPM.92Jul27163911@clyde.clearpoint.com>, cpm@clyde.clearpoint.com
writes...
>In article <1992Jul27.030033.8073@math.ucla.edu> rfedkiw@sepulveda.math.ucla.
edu (Ronald Fedkiw) writes:

[predicitons deleted]

>Do you really think they will go undefeated in their division? I predict
>they go 5-3 in their division. Remember last year they split the season 
>series with the pathetic Patriots in two close games. Didn't the Jets
>come within an eyelash of victory over the Bills last year only to lose
>it on a bad play at the end of the game. Both of these teams have improved 
>from last year. Have the Bills?

	The idea that the Jets have improved is debatable.  They'll probably
have a new, rookie quarterback, plus other problems.
	The Patriots have nowhere to go but up, but everything depends on the
head coach.
	The Bills, on the other hand, have certainly improved.  They have
Henry Jones, who should be a better strong safety than Leonard Smith even if
he does make rookie mistakes.  ( He's not a rookie, but saw very little playing
time last year. )  Bruce Smith, taking a much more relaxed approach to rehab,
will be back.  Phil Hansen will also be a new starter on the defensive line,
and there are three new prospects there.  The linebacking corps is as strong as
ever.  On the offense, they should remain strong.  The only likely lineup
changes would be at fullback and guard, and those would be improvements.

[silly comments deleted]

>>If things were perfect, they could pick up one more early
>>against SF or Raiders and/or pick up both games on the split.
>>Of course, either of the above two would probably confirm a
>>loss to Houston unless. Perfect season: 14-2
>>If things don't go very well they could drop both games on
>>the split and go 11-5.
>
>They will be lucky to go 11-5.

	They'll do better than that, unless early-season problems hurt team
morale and cause a complete collapse, in which case they'll probably wind up
with a losing season.

>>99% probability for playoffs
>>75% probability to be in the AFC title game
>>50% probability to be in Super Bowl
>>25% probability to win Super Bowl
> 
>IMO,
>75% probability for playoffs
>40% probability to be in the AFC title game
>20% probability to be in Super Bowl
>10%  probability to win Super Bowl

	These judgements are just too subjective for me.  I think they'll
get to the playoffs, probably the Super Bowl, and lose again.

>>By the way I was in Las Vegas a few weeks ago
>>and the odds on buffalo to win the AFC title were 2 to 1.
>>This means Vegas gives them a 33% chance, but I gave them 50%.
>>(sounds reasonable)
> 
>While you were in Veags did you put all your money on the Bills to go 
>all the way :-)

	I would, if I were in Las Vegas!

>>Watch out for the Raiders and Houston this year.
>>They could be spoilers.
>>Although Buffalo will probably never play them,
>>	    ... KC and Denver could be playoff dangers.
>>	   (but I doubt it)
> 
>>  Any other AFC fans (especially in the East),
>>  have any courage to post preseason predictions????
> 
>Yes, I think I have the courage to make a prediction. Since your predictions
>only deal with your beloved Bills, I predict they will not do as well this
>year as the last two. IMHO, they have already peaked as a team. They had
>their chance to win the superbowl the last two years, but failed. This will
>have an effect on them this year. They will not come out with the same
>intestity as the last two years. Have the Bills improved as a team from
>last year? Hows Bruce Smith? Can Kelly have another great year? Have they
>signed any of the veteran holdouts?

	Bruce Smith will not be quite his old self.  There are improvements
elswhere, though, and Bruce will still be a great player.  Kelly did not have
a great year last year.  He actually didn't play very well.  If the line holds
up, and Kelly doesn't make as many mistakes, he'll do even better.  I'm sure
he'll show the league he's better than Rypien and all the other pretenders out
there, and that he's second only to Marino and maybe Montana.

[first poster's concessions deleted]

>>Ron Fedkiw (rfedkiw@redwood.math.ucla.edu)

>Chris Martel
>Clearpoint Resaerch
>cpm@clyde.clearpoint.com

Snoopy