From: barnhart@netcom.com (Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:SOUTH AFRICA: HOPES HIGH FOR RESUMP
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 92 01:27:05 GMT
Organization: Netcom
Reply-To: barnhart@netcom.com

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Title: SOUTH AFRICA: HOPES HIGH FOR RESUMPTION OF TALKS


an inter press service feature

by philippa garson

johannesburg, aug 13 (ips) -- following last weeks successful
mass action campaign by the african national congress (anc), a
mood of optimism has descended on the country and analysts say
the reconvening of talks between the government and the anc is
only weeks away.

the convention for a democratic south africa (codesa) talks
for constitutional reform have been suspended since june
following the intensification of township violence marked by the
boipatong massacre in which police involvement was alleged by
the anc.

but despite predictions from the government that the anc's
decision to embark on one week of mass action starting aug. 3
would lead to further violence, the campaign was marked by
restraint on both the part of the security forces and the anc
and the two sides are now no more polarised than they were
before the campaign.

this week the government met to discuss u.n. proposals for
curbing violence with a view to coming up with tangible
''concessions'' to the anc's demands to open the way for talks
to resume.

on jun. 23 the anc had sent a list of 14 demands to the
government, including the fencing off of hostels, disbanding of
controversial security force units and release of political
prisoners before the organisation could resume negotiations with
the government.

u.n. secretary general boutros boutros-ghali has recommended
an investigation of the security forces and various private
armies, the declaration of a general amnesty, and the stationing
of 30 foreign monitors here in the near future to support the
work of the national peace accord structures.

with the un secretary-general's recommendation that observer
missions such as that undertaken recently by special envoy cyrus
vance continue on a ''quarterly basis or more frequently, if the
situation warrants'' the role of the international community in
the south african problem is likely to be established.

meanwhile, the presence of 10 u.n. monitors in the country
during last week's mass action campaign received a positive
response in most quarters and was seen as being largely
responsible for the relatively low death toll during the week of
heated political activity. (more/ips)


south africa: hopes (2)

many analysts agree that current developments are welcome as
a political settlement is unlikely unless accompanied or
preceded by a drastic reduction in the violence.

''the extent to which these developments make progress will
determine the pace of political negotiations. the climate of
violence has bedevilled the situation thus far and negotiations
will have to run alongside political negotiations or precede
them,'' says frederick van zyl slabbert director of the
institute of democratic alternatives for south africa.

''without a workable agreement on the violence issue, the
process cannot move.'' adds slabbert.

key anc negotiator mohammed valli moosa also cautions against
premature excitement. while the anc is keen to get back to
negotiations, ''we need a response from the government and we
are nowhere near having received that. the government is under a
lot of pressure but i don't have any direct indication that
talks will be resumed.''

''we will want to get a committment from the government
itself before multilateral negotiations begin. once we're
convinced the government is serious then we would reinstate
multilateral talks, the forum of which will be discussed when we
reach that point,'' valli says.

the prospective involvement in negotiations of a wider range
of groups both to the far left and far right of the political
spectrum is viewed with some optimism by observers.

says (liberal) democratic party leader zach de beer: ''it'll
be a good thing if they (other groups) come in, but the key
players remain the nats (national party) and the anc. when they
agree on something, it happens. when they disagree, nothing
does.''

de beer cautions against an arrogant disregard of other
parties, particularly the conservative inkatha freedom party
(ifp). however, like other politicians, he advocates a renewed
emphasis on bilateral talks which will speed up the process.

but while most observers agree that the deals already struck
at codesa are likely to provide the basis for renewed talks, not
all see the broad, unwieldy codesa structure with its 19 parties
or political organisations and 400-odd individual participants
as the ideal forum for future formal talks.

a future body should be smaller. some even say the more
peripheral parties should be weeded out altogther. bilateral
talks, ''where real agreements are hammered out'', are likely
to be the focus of renewed, more streamlined negotiations.
(end/ips/pg/tvh/oa/92)


-- 
Aaron (Barnhart@netcom.com) -- posting from Evanston, Illinois