From: javad@nsisrv.gsfc.nasa.gov (Javad Boroumand;NSIUSO)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.iranian
Subject: Re: Terrorist Khomeini regime attacks an NLA Base
Date: 6 Apr 92 22:36:07 GMT
Article-I.D.: nsisrv.javad.702599767
Organization: Goddard Space Flight Center

arash@sunee.waterloo.edu (Arash Jahangir) writes:

>In article <saied.702579596@odin> saied@odin.unomaha.edu (Saied*) writes:

>>
>>Second, even if the Mojahedin did attack (they will eventually
>                                           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>>attack to free the Iranians from akhounds & pasdars' terror),
> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>>their attack would be against the terrorist pasdars. The people,
>>specially the Kurdish people of the western borders of Iran have
>>always been a source of man-power and support for the Mojahedin.
>>

>This is absolutly amazing.  Are there a lot of people like you who think this
>regime can be overthrown by an external attack?  The idea just sounds so un-
>beleivable. 

So does the existance of the Khomeini regime in 20th (almost 21st) century.
Mojahedin did try all other alternatives prior to the creation of the NLA.
Once a strategy does not work it is a good idea to change it.  

>The more concentrated you are the easier it will be to get rid
>of you. 

Not necessarily true! Mojahedin were very dispersed in the early years
of arms movement against the regime.  They tried the classic urban warfare
and the scattered continuous countryside warfare for the period of 1360
to 1366 (1981-1987).  The analysis of why those strategies did not lead
to regime overthrow needs a separate (and long) discussion.  But the
bottom line is that the regime survived those warfare.  Of course that
does not mean that those strategies were wrong at that time, given
the Iran-Iraq war and the fact that the Iraqi forces were on offensive
inside our country.

>Iraqis with all their resources and forien aid and airplanes and 
>missiles and whatever else did not mannage to overthrow the regime, just who
>do you think MKO are, supermen?

Iraqis could not and can not overthrow the Khomeini regime or any other
Iranian regime for that matter.  They wanted the Khoozestan (as a puppet
"independent" country) and a larger access to the Persian Gulf.  They
also wanted to establish themselves as the superpower of the region, the
same way the Shah regime then wanted, and Khomeini regime now wants to do 
the same.  The resource differences between the two countries and the
political geography of the region does not allow any Iraqi regime to
take control of Iran (in its totallity).

BTW, do not forget the superwomen; they are over 35% of the NLA.

>It is time (actually it has been quite some-
>time) for the regime's opponents to realize that a change in Iran will not be
>based, lead, or otherwise come to effect by external factors.

As far as I know, Mojahedin have always said that it is the people of Iran
who want, must, and will overthrow the regime.  Otherwise it would be a
coup, anywhich way you name it.

>In the end it
>will have to be the common people of Iran who will have to overthrow or somehow
>change the essence of this regime.

AGREE with the overthrow; do not agree with the "somehow change the essence
of this regime".  The essence of this regime CAN NOT be changed.  Internal
repression and external crisis (export of terrorism) are the fundamental
bases of this regime.  The two are inter-related.  That's the essence of
this regime.

>The only thing that this regime is afraid 
>of is unorgonized massive movement of the public, not MKO or anybody else who
>is shouting from the outside (including myself :-)

As far as I know, Mojahedin's view is that the NLA is a "sufficient condition"
in the balance of power equation between the regime and the people.  The
massive movement of the people is the "necessary condition" in that equation.
In simple terms: the people must move otherwise this regime will not 
be overthrown. However, the "unorganized massive movement" of the people
can not alone overthrow the regime (based on the degree of repression
and regime's willingness to kill as many as needed to put the movement
to rest which was not the case in the 1978-79 movement against the Shah).
What is needed, once the people come to streets, is a well organized, 
highly mobile, mechanized military force to divert regime's forces 
toward itself to reduce regime's ability to fight the people in major 
cities across the country.  The regime needs most of its resources
to fight back the NLA as they have openly admitted this in the past.

Of course the two factors (the people and the NLA) can not be independent.  
People will come to streets (in masses) if they see a chance.  That chance
could be greatly increased if the NLA gets through the regime forces to
a major city (perhaps Kermanshah) in a matter of couple of days.  So what
is really needed is a chain reaction of NLA's ability to move forward
and the number of people who will actively remain in the streets.

How this can be done is only partially controlled by the Mojahedin.  
No one can be sure of anything until it happens.  Mojahedin are doing
their part.  

>Mojahedin have done far too
>much dammage.  Their lack of competence not only has sent thousands of their
>followers to their deathbeads, they have strengthen the regime by their 
>"nadAnam kAri"  (Sorry non-Iranians I don't know the English equivalent).

How would you have done it differently?  If you can find things wrong with
what Mojahedin have done (in which you could be correct given you provide
more details than general statements like above) Mojahedin can find many
more things wrong with other real alternatives.  Mojahedin act to the best
of their ability to analyze the situation.  If their ability is not good
enough in your judgement then please let us know who is better? Who can
lead better? Who will get us to where you think we should be (in terms
of what you define as a sound opposition)?

>They
>have effectively acted as a vaccine for the regime; lots of little attacks 
>here and there, some of them even rather smart attacks, but not enough to do
>us any good. 

No attack is good enough unless it results in regime's overthrow.  And that
result will only be good once.  And then argument about "not good enough"
attacks would be academic.

>Only enough to bring to the regime's attention their weaknesses
>thereby helping the regime to better protect itself.

OK let's do nothing because the regime will find out about its weaknesses!
Sure the regime is now experinced a lot more than it was 10 years ago.
But Mojahedin are also more experienced than 10 years ago.  Both sides
know their weaknesses and are working on it all the time.  Mojahedin
do not believe in that old proven wrong idea of Tudeh Party that save
yourself and save your forces so maybe one day the opportunity may 
become suitable for some kind of covert action which may also be approved
by some foreign power somewhere in the world.  People judge by action
not by words.  You can not expect people to be hopeful if you as a leader
do not do anything that can possibly give them even a little bit of hope.
If people are not hopeful, then they will not give you anything in return.
And if you are not created and directed by a forign source, then people's
support is all you have.

>I don't think I can ever
>hate anything as much as I hate this regime. 
>But if I were to come up with a
>second, it would be people who due to lack of competence, short-sightedness,
>and mindless power plays have wasted the lives of thousands of Iran's best.

If you truly believe that these "Iran's best" are really best and you just
don't say that to be nice to them, then I put this question to you: What
makes these "best" to be best?  Would that be education wise? Professional
wise? Family wise? Personality wise? ... 

I believe the "best" applies to their minds more than anything else.  They
were and are our best minds.  How can be these "best" follow such a
leadership (which you have not explicitly reffered to, but I do it for you
since I think that's what you mean) who is incompetent, short-sighted, and
mindless power player? 

Best regards

-- Javad