From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 December
Date: 21 Dec 92 20:41:41 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 355, 12/20/92
10.7 FLUX=148    90-AVG=137        SSN=150      BKI=1234 2232  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B4.9     FLU1=0.0E+00  FLU10=0.0E+00  PKI=2334 2332  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=007,019,027,053,012,012,022,018   DEV-AVG=021 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.3   @ 1629UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.6   @ 0727UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2030UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2120UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2105UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1950UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 0514UT   BOUTF-MIN=55392NT @ 1840UT  BOUTF-AVG=55413NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+103NT@ 1810UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-008NT@ 1027UT  G7-AVG=+071,+029,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1750UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-015NT@ 0128UT  G6-AVG=+090,-003,+037
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,150,145;SESC:150,150,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2332 2223 2233 2223  27DAY-AP=028,013   27DAY-KP=5554 3433 2234 3332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7374 (S08E48) is the
       most impressive Region today, showing strong growth. It had two
       flares, a C1/SF at 20/0455UT and a C2/SF at 20/1730UT. An
       uncorrelated C1 event was also observed at 19/2336UT. The
       remainder of Regions were quiet with little or no development.
       Regions 7377 (N17W23) and 7378 (N13E65) were assigned today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7374 holds the best chance of C-class activity and
       has a small chance of an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Mid-latitude stations saw a
       brief period of active levels at 20/1200UT. High latitude
       stations experienced minor to major storm levels from 20/0900
       to 20/1200UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 21 dec-23 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 dec-23 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar near-normal propagation is expected to
       persist for the next 72 hours (through 23 December inclusive).
       No recurrent signal degradation is expected until around
       26 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7368  S33W39  088  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7369  S09W09  058  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7370  S08W00  049  0050 CSO  04  003 BETA
7371  S11W77  126  0150 DSO  10  008 BETA
7372  S12E31  018  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7374  S08E48  001  0450 DAI  08  019 BETA
7375  N14W54  103  0070 DAO  08  010 BETA
7376  N17E58  351  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7377  N17W23  072  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7378  N13E65  344  0050 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7366  S10W60  109                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 DECEMBER TO 23 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7356 S13   318
7361 S16   308


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/ 1447     1630     1707                LDE    C3.3  140


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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