From: genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: MLV thoughts after the '92 season
Date: 14 Dec 92 22:16:53 GMT
Distribution: rec
Organization: Department of Industrial Engineering

In looking over Steve Smith's position-adjusted MLV numbers for the '92
season, a few interesting things crop up:

1. An interesting (to me) question is "Just how dominant would an all-star
team really be?"  RC is probably the best way to get at this, but we can
get a nice conservative estimate by adding up MLV's, since that will always
underestimate actual team scoring (when all of your players are above average,
at any rate).  Consider a lineup of

	Pos.	Player			MR/G
	3B	Edgar Martinez		.346
	1B	Frank Thomas		.292
	LF	Barry Bonds		.476
	RF	Danny Tartabull		.223
	CF	Ken Griffey, Jr.	.243
	2B	Ryne Sandberg		.278
	DH	Paul Molitor		.198
	C	Darren Daulton		.304
	SS	Barry Larkin		.255
					----
				       2.615

Thus, the extremely conservative estimate is that this team would score
about 7 runs per game.  (Actual value is probably more like 8, but let's
stick with this for the moment).  With average pitching, that's about a .750
winning percentage; say 122-40 for the season.  Again, the actual number is
even higher.

That being the case, I'd say that the owners' claims that free agency would
destroy the competitive balance of the game deserve nothing but guffaws.
(Of course, the general incompetence of GMs acts as a randomizing factor,
since even the wealthiest team can't stockpile talent if they don't know
how to recognize it...)


2.  MVP voting.

The position-adjusted offensive values of players for the past season lead
to the following purely offensive rankings for the 1992 season:

	NL			AL

1. Barry Bonds	66.7	1. Frank Thomas	46.8
2. G. Sheffield 46.3	2. E. Martinez	46.7
3. D. Daulton	44.2	3. R. Alomar	35.3
4. R. Sandberg	43.9	4. K. Griffey	34.5
5. B. Larkin	35.7	5. K. Puckett	34.1
6. F. McGriff	34.0	6. M. McGwire	33.2
7. A. Van Slyke	33.5	7. M. Tettleton	32.9
8. L. Walker	26.0	8. P. Molitor	31.2
9. T. Pendleton	24.2	9. D. Winfield	27.6
10. J. Kruk	23.4	10. Tartabull	27.4


In the NL, Bonds would win even if Sheffield played defense like Brooks
Traynor.  The only other players on the list who get a defensive skill
boost that might be larger than Bonds's own are Larkin, Walker, and
Pendleton, and they're just too far back.

Dr. Dave's reconsidered NL ballot:

	1. Barry Bonds
	2. Barry Larkin
	3. Greg Maddux
	4. Ryne Sandberg
	5. Gary Sheffield
	6. Darren Daulton
	7. Terry Pendleton
	8. Larry Walker
	9. Andy Van Slyke
	10. Fred McGriff

In the AL, the race for #1 is much closer.  There are three tiers of player,
but neither of the players in the first tier is a great defensive player,
while several of the players in the second tier *are* at least above average.

Dr. Dave's reconsidered AL ballot:

	1. Edgar Martinez
	2. Roberto Alomar
	3. Frank Thomas
	4. Roger Clemens
	5. Mark McGwire
	6. Ken Griffey Jr.
	7. Mickey Tettleton
	8. Kirby Puckett
	9. Lou Whitaker
	10. Rickey Henderson

If pressed, I might be convinced to swap Tettleton and Griffey.


3. Positional balance

Of the top 50 positional MLV's (total value) in the majors this season,
the breakdown by position is as follows:

	Catchers:	6
	1Bmen:		5 (and a near miss in Mark Grace)
	2Bmen:		7
	3Bmen:		6
	Shortstops:	5
	Left fielders:	6
	Center  "  :	7
	Right   "  :	5
	Designated:	3 (plus near-miss Albert Belle)

I was surprised by the balance here, until I realized that it's a sort of
self-fulfilling prophecy.  Players are chosen by conventional wisdom.  If 
the conventional wisdom says that shortstops don't have to be able to hit,
then Raphael Belliard and Gary DiSarcina will get significant amounts of PT,
and Larkin/Fryman/Listach/Smith/Blauser will be way above average.  Perhaps
more interesting is that the top right fielders (Tartabull, Walker, and Deer)
placed 17th, 19th, and 32nd respectively.  Not much of a showing for a 
position that is traditionally an offensive powerhouse.  Joe Carter (40) and
Dave Justice (50) were next.


4.  Team MVPs.

On the basis of the positional MLV numbers and my best guesses about 
defensive values (based on previous-year defensive averages and such
personal observations as I was able to make this year), I come up with
the following team MVPs:

National League:

	Pittsburgh:	Bonds
	Montreal:	Walker
	Philly:		Daulton (hon. mention Schilling)
	Chicago:	Sandberg/Maddux (hard to call)
	New York:	Fernandez (God, that's scary.  Best offensive: Bonilla)
	St. Louis:	Tewksbury

	Atlanta:	Pendleton
	San Diego:	McGriff
	Cincy:		Larkin
	Houston:	Harnisch
	San Fran:	W. Clark
	Los Angeles:	Butler

American League:

	Toronto:	Alomar
	Milwaukee:	Molitor
	Baltimore:	Hoiles  (honest)
	Cleveland:	Baerga
	Boston:		Clemens
	Detroit:	Tettleton  (hon. mention Whitaker)
	New York:	Tartabull  (hon. mention batboy)

	Oakland:	McGwire  (no way, Eck.)
	Chicago:	Thomas
	Minnesota:	Puckett  (hon. mention Mack)
	Texas:		Gonzalez (dead heat with Sierra/Canseco combined)
	Kansas City:	Appier (with clump of Jefferies, Macfarlane, Miller,
				McReynolds, and assorted pitchers miles back)
	Seattle:	Martinez (hon. mention Griffey)
	California:	Get serious.  Abbott, I suppose.  Rene Gonzalez was
			the *only* above-average offensive player on the team,
			and not by a whole lot.


-- 
       David Tate        |"Out of the dugout endlessly swinging,
 dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu | Out of the manager's throat, the sound fundamentals,
 Prof. of Story Problems | Out of the six-month season..."            
 Member ORSA, TIMS, SABR | 	Walt "Lefty" Whitman