From: ez027993@dale.ucdavis.edu (Gary The Big Picture Huckabay)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Cecil signs :-( :-( :-(
Date: 12 Jan 93 01:25:13 GMT
Organization: Roger Maynard Crab Gumbo Club, Ltd.

Jonathan Katz writes:

>I don't understand you guys.  Fielder is one of the five best first basemen in
>the league right now. 

Well, perhaps you might understand us better if you were clear on what
we mean.  (I'm using 'we' here to designate that somewhat foggy bunch
of individuals known as statheads, SDCNs, Fielder Bashers, and Carter
Bashers, a fully owned subsidiary of LundyCo.)

We feel that Cecil Fielder is severely overrated by the media, primarily
because of his RBI totals.  We feel that RBI are a basically worthless
statistic, since it measures the ability of those players IN FRONT of
you in the batting order.  Cecil Fielder drove in a lot of runs last
year, but only because the guys in front of him were on base very 
frequently.  Furthermore, Cecil, while piling up those gaudy RBI totals,
is spending the team's most valuable offensive commodity - outs.  If
you spend your 27 outs, the game is over.   Cecil consumed outs at a
very high rate last year.

Furthermore, Cecil is a severe liability on defense.  

We think that looking at On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage,
in proper context, is a better way to judge a player's performance than
RBI's.  

That's why when you say Cecil is one of the 5 best 1B in the league, it's
very difficult for us to accept it.  Studies have shown again and again
that OBP and SLG are excellent indicators of offensive contributions -
RBI, on the other hand, is inherently flawed beyond repair, IMHO.  

If you mean just the American League, I feel the following 1B are superior
players to Cecil Fielder:

1.  Frank Thomas
2.  Mark McGwire
3.  John Olerud
4.  Paul Sorrento
5.  Kent Hrbek
6.  Rafael Palmeiro

If you wish to include the National League, include:

1.  Fred McGriff
2.  Will Clark
3.  Jeff Bagwell
4.  Mark Grace
5.  John Kruk.

There's a couple of other guys that I consider to be fairly close in
the middle of the pack, along with Fielder.  

> His avergae last year was an aberration.  And besides, his
>average wasnt _that bad_ considering how many homeruns he hit.  He's been an
>all-star the past three years, too (a starter a couple of times also, if I am
>correct).  That clearly makes him beter than 'marginally above average'.

I disagree.  Accolades after the fact don't really do anything to change
your performance.  As for his average last year being an aberration,
I'll bet his OPS will be about .800 next year, with lousy defense.

>Besides, and this will probably get a lot of flaming, I think that had he not
>missed time in Japan, he would now be on the way to a HOF career.

If everything broke right, perhaps.  But Cecil played 220 games over four
years before going to Japan - and didn't do anything to convince the Blue
Jay Brass that he was going to be a player - so they let him go to Japan.

The total time he 'missed' was one year.

I don't have a personal vendetta against Cecil Fielder.  Don't know the 
man.  I don't like the way he whined to the press about not winning his
MVP awards, but that's a a separate issue.  It reminds me of Dave Stewart's
CY whinings, which I thought were very tacky.

Cecil will be 30 on September 21st.  He is AT LEAST 40 pounds overweight.
He is a bad defensive first baseman.  His perceived value is much higher
than his actual value.  He is a player with a high risk of a serious
injury due to his advancing age and weight.

In other words, he is the prototype player to avoid giving $36 Million
over five years to.

He is not capable of carrying Frank Thomas', Barry Bonds', or Mark
McGwire's jock.

Three years from now, the Fielder signing will be right up there with the
Yankees' signing of Steve Kemp.  Worse.  It's a $7.2 MM blunder from Hell.

I thought the Giants got off CHEAP when they signed Bonds for $43MM/6 years.

I was right.

But Detroit has been the biggest loser in this year's money wars.  Mike
Moore, Bill Krueger, and Cecil Fielder?  For HOW much?  Ugh.  I don't
feel quite so bad about Storm Davis now.

-- 
*   Gary Huckabay   * "There is a special place in Hell for people like   *
* "Bears virtually  *  you, Gary.  You'll be sharing a room with Rip      *
* no resemblance to *  Taylor, Jim Nabors, Richard Simmons, and America's *
*  David Thornley." *  Scoutmaster General, Charles Nelson Reilly." - AR. *