From: rhaar@albert.cs.gmr.com (Bob Haar)
Newsgroups: rec.autos
Subject: Re: Vehicle size vs. safety (was: Crash Te
Date: 25 Jan 93 14:05:12 GMT
Reply-To: rhaar@albert.cs.gmr.com
Organization: G.M. Research Laboratories

In article 63620@mimsy.umd.edu, hagger@cs.umd.edu (Paul Hagger) writes:
|>In article <96757@rphroy.ph.gmr.com> rhaar@albert.cs.gmr.com writes:
|>>|>In article <96654@rphroy.ph.gmr.com>, rhaar@albert.cs.gmr.com (Bob Haar) writes:
|>>|>|> Let me add some data to this discussion. The following is paraphrased
|>>|>|> from "Traffic Safety and the Driver" by Leonard Evans and is based
|>>
|>>Evans analyzed the dtat in a number of ways that involved driver's
|>>age. If you are really interested, you should read the book. But I
|>>will extract some information from two graphs that might be 
|>>helpful.
|>
|>Actually, I for one am interested in reading a book of this type.  I have looked
|>in local bookstores, and the only volume I found had a name similar to the one
|>you mention.  I don't remember the name of the book too well, though.
|>
|>If possible, I would like to see if the book I saw was the same as the one you
|>are describing.  I decided not to buy, based on some statements in the book
|>that I believe have been well refuted elsewhere, thus rendering this book useless
|>as far as I am concerned.
|>
|>The book I saw had similar statistics to the ones you mention.  It also mentions
|>speeding in roughly three places throughout the lengthy tome.  With no proof,
|>the book I saw states that speed is the determining factor in assessing driver
|>safety, and proceeds to clearly declare that speed enforcement is the best way
|>to ensure safety on our highways.  As far as I am concerned, one of the main
|>points of the book -- with no basis in fact.
|>
|>This after every study that I have seen has clearly shown that driver speed is
|>not affected by enforcement, and that average speed for a typical driver happens
|>to be a safe speed (certainly helped by the fact that everyone else is going
|>roughly that speed).
|>
|>
|>I am honestly interested in whether the two books are the same, or whether I
|>should request that my local bookseller order me a copy of the Evans book you
|>describe.

The book is "Traffice safety and the Driver" by Leonard Evans, 1991,
Van Nostrand Reinhold, ISBN 0-442-00163-0. It was $54.95 (steep!)
at a local bookstore a couple of months ago. I should mention that
Leonard works here at GMR and is really not anti-car as some of the
safety nazis are.

There is some discussion of the effects of speed, but this is mainly
along the lines of looking at the odds of surviving an accident based on
speed, not the likely of being in an accident. He does make the point
that large variations in traffic speed are more of a hazard than
speed itself (I agree with this).

In one chapter, he discusses what an individual driver can do to
risk his/her risk. One point he makes is that people are very
poor at estimating risks and evaluating the consequences of their
behavior. Mainly, he advocates defensive driving with an emphasis
on keeping larger than normal spacing between cars so that an
unusual event doesn't become an accident.

One good thing about this book is that he lays out exactly where he got his
data and how he did the statistical analysis. You may not agree with him
(and I don't in all cases), but you at least know how he got there.


---
  	Robert Haar               InterNet : rhaar@gmr.com 
	Computer Science Dept., G.M. Research Laboratories
DISCLAIMER: Unless indicated otherwise, everything in this note is
personal opinion, not an official statement of General Motors Corp.


Newsgroups: rec.autos