From: sl26@ellis.uchicago.edu (sangjin  lee)
Subject: A Gloomy Prospect of the Aftermath of the Election
Reply-To: sl26@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: Department of Physics, University of Chicago
Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1992 17:14:32 GMT

Now that the election is over and YS Kim has won it, it's time to consider
what will happen next.
Sadly enough, in my opinion I don't think many good things lie ahead.

(1) Fate of the Opposition group formerly centered at the Democratic Party:

It's known that the Democratic Party was a rather loose entity made up only
to ensure the victory at the election. Two disparate groups, one of DJ's
loyalists(usually from HONAM and senior politicians), and the other younger
and more progressive, will have to find a good reason to stay together. The
younger groups have often expressed resistance about DJ's charismatic roles
and his changed(?) political views, which are nothing but pretty
conservative. The most radical group, the National Federation(?, CHUNKUK
YUNHAP) supported DJ at this election. There are CHUNDAEHYUP(National
College Students' Movement Leaders' Association), CHUNNOHYUP(Nationwide
Laborer Unions' Association), and much more in the National Federation.
It's rather clear that they will support the Democrats no longer, because
they think they have no hope on them in ideological view as well as
practical view. Thus the radical group will separate and go their own way.
So, the worst, and yet quite probable scenario is that the opposition
groups are fragmented into three or four pieces; Former DJ's supporters,
Younger generations from the Democratic Party (they could form an alliance
with Park Chan Jong), and the radical front, which is moving ahead to form
a political, institutional radical party. Why is it the worst? That's
because under this circumstance the change of the power group is a long
gone hope.
Still, DJ's role is very crucial in this process. Not that he deserves it,
but still he has the influence on the Democrats(money, people, etc.)
without regard to his disappearance from the front.

(2) Cleared path for DLP:
One sure thing to happen is it will absorb many once-dissidents back from
mainly National Party (Chung Ju Young's party). It's bound to happen
because they are parasites in nature(mostly all the way from the Third
Republic. they survived four decades. Why not another?). Otherwise, they
mightt consider making an ultra-conservative party with Chun Doo Whan.
In the end, DLP will have a stable majority in the Congress.
What next? Their long-anticipated dream. The parliamentary government
system. That was the major goal when the three parties merged three years
ago. Did they abandon that idea? Not at all. Rather, it was endorsed by the
'people'. The people clearly showed that they have no desire to change the
ruling party no matter what they do. In other words, like Japan, they are
deciding to live with THE ruling party for ever. Another important and
fortunate(for DLP) indication is the growing political apathy among the
young generation. So, like Japan, as long as people feel comfortable with
the ruling party no matter what they do, and as long as they are sick and
tired of politics and don't want to get their hands dirty, the safest
device is the parliamentary system exactly like Japan. DLP will try to do
that. Some of the higher party members have already expressed that hope
openly right before the election. If it occurs, then DLP will be the ruling
party for a century.

(3) last: fate of the National party:
It will collapse. There is no doubt about that. Or at least, Chung Ju Young
will retire from politics, Kim Dong Kil and original party members will
secede. Or, the members from the Fifth Republic people(Park Chul Un, Che
Mun Sik,...) will secede.

ps: This is purely my private projection.

D
D
D
C
C
C
YUNHAP) supported DJ
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