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Date:         Tue, 15 Dec 1992 00:13:59 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      On Various Aspects of the Situation in Russia, (#798)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
          kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
          srdjan%cathy@kri.fer.yu, christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
          76701.103@compuserve.com

Hello. Due to a stupid injury to my hand on Saturday, I've been quiet
over the weekend, and must go slow now, as my hand is this horrible
bruise from one end to the other (fortunately, the X-rays today
showed I did not break it!), and hurts terribly to use. But, here
goes.

Russia-

Brother Gaidar is Prime Minister no more, replaced by the Deputy PM
for Oil and Gas, V. Chernomyrdin. Apparently, the Congress has
already approved this choice. In addition, Gennadi Burbulis was
sacked from his last job as an advisor to Yeltsin. Apparently, the
Congress wanted this guy out, period. The wrangling at the top
continues, however, when V. Kostikov, Yeltsin's spokesperson, blasted
Vice President Rutskoi as having "had substantially gone beyond his
constitutional perogative" in opposing the originally proposed
referenda that Yeltsin had wanted to hold.


This event occurs after Friday's comments on news and elsewhere that
Russia was in the midst of its worst crisis since the attempted
putsch in August, '91, with appeals from both Yeltsin and the
Congress imploring the people "to remain calm." (Apparently, they
did.) As Yeltsin retreated within the Kremlin on Friday, an
extraordinary stream of Ministers appeared at the Congress to assure
the members that naught untoward was happening behind the scenes. The
Defense Minister stated that the Army was loyal to the constitution,
the Security Minister stated that "no coup" was in the offing,
Interior stated that the police would cooperate with the Parliament
AND Yeltsin, (though a rumor during the day stated that Khasbulatov
and the Parliament had secretly voted  to put the "Parliamentary
Guard" under the Parliament's control, and not the President) and S.
Stankevich stated that Yeltsin "will continue dialogue with Yeltsin."
Charges of a "creeping coup" were thrown about by both sides.

RFE/RL reported today, and I had heard this on 11 December on NPR
(which offered no news today due to the coverage of the Clinton
economic summit), that the Congress of People's Deputies had passed a
law banning referenda on the "abolition or curtailment of powers of
the President, Parliament or the Constitutional Court. Over the
weekend, a compromise was reportedly reached wherein on 11 April,
1993, a referendum will be held on a draft constitution (after which,
the above law would go into effect), and where in case of
disagreements, alternate proposals to those recommended can also be
voted upon.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn turned 74 on Friday. This towering Slavophile
has been remarkably quiet this past year, and his current whereabouts
appear to be rather secret. I had heard he was in Russia, if so, he
is laying very low.


It would appear Yeltsin has averted this crisis by sacrificing both
Gaidar and Burbulis, thereby probably weakening his Presidency, and
now leaving the pace and depth of reform in doubt. The referenda idea
appears to be cast to the waste heap, and Parliament appears the
victor in the latest battle of wills between they and the President.
Where the country, and the region, goes from here would seem in great
doubt, especially as fighting continues in Tajikistan without any
immediate hope of resolving the thorny issues there, the ruble is
still on a slow slide, the CIS is said by Shoposhnikov (according to
RFE/RL today) as "closer to integration," but civil conflicts in
south Russia, Georgia, Tajikistan and Moldova continue. With
Yeltsin's power diminished, or so it would seem, and no clear course
set by Parliament as of yet, the immediate future appears QUITE
murky. VMS
Comments: Gated by NETNEWS@AUVM.AMERICAN.EDU