From: filfeit@rael.Tymnet.COM (Fil Feit)
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections,talk.politics.misc
Subject: How Bush & Clinton are doing, state-by-state
Date: 28 Aug 92 15:31:24 GMT
Reply-To: filfeit@rael.Tymnet.COM
Followup-To: alt.politics.elections
Organization: Sun Microsystems

From AP, copied without permission:


   WASHINGTON (AP) _ Here is a glance at the status of the
presidential race in each of the 50 states:
   
   Alabama (9 electoral votes) _ Democrats have not won here since
1976 and Bush had an early lead in the state. But Clinton surged
ahead after the Democratic convention in July. Now both parties say
they expect the race to stay close.  "It's going to be a
struggle,"  says Montgomery Mayor Emory Folmar, Bush's state
campaign chairman.
   
   Alaska (3) _ Clinton and Gore are underdogs. Alaska's economy is
oil driven and there are suspicions that Clinton and Gore are
anti-drilling.
   
   Arizona (8) _ Bush and Clinton have swapped leads in state polls
and now the race seems to be a dead heat. Arizona is part of the
GOP Sunbelt base, and Republican Gov. Fife Symington says:  "I
can't see Arizona embracing Clinton and Gore."  State Democratic
vice chairman Steve Owens says Clinton can win here but he  "needs
to keep hammering on the theme of economic revival." 
   
   Arkansas (6) _ In his home state,  "even if Clinton ran a
terrible race, he would probably win Arkansas,"  says state GOP
Chairman Asa Hutchinson.
   
   California (54) _ The state has one-fifth of the electoral votes
needed to win the presidency. Polls throughout the year have shown
Bush trailing. The sluggish economy has severely hurt Bush and
angered many Californians, concedes Republican Sen. John Seymour,
whose own political future is on the line. California pollster
Mervin Field agrees Bush's big problem is  "the economy _ and the
inability of the president and his people to do anything about
it." 
   
   Colorado (8) _ The state hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964,
but a Denver Post poll between the two conventions showed Clinton
with a 25-point lead. Kathy Arnold, state GOP director, predicts
Bush will win  "by five points at least."  State Democratic
chairman Howard Gelt sees a narrow Clinton victory.
   
   Connecticut (8) _ Clinton holds a sizeable lead over Bush,
according to a poll taken after the GOP convention. Still,
Connecticut has not voted for a Democrat since Hubert Humphrey in
1968.
   
   Delaware (3) _ The state has voted Republican in three straight
presidential elections, but it appears up for grabs. Clinton
probably has a lead of about 10 to 15 points now but that will
narrow as the campaign goes on, says James Soles, a political
science professor at the University of Delaware.
   
   District of Columbia (3) _ D.C. Republicans say there are three
sure things in their city: death, taxes and Democratic victories.
Democrats in the federal city outnumber Republicans by a 10-to-1
margin.
   
   Florida (25) _ Florida gave Bush his largest margin in 1988 and
is usually considered a safe GOP state. Pre-Republican convention
polls indicated he was running nearly even with Clinton but
Democrats say they have at least a shot. Bush wasted no time in
rushing to the state this week to inspect damage from Hurricane
Andrew.
   
   Georgia (13) _ Clinton is ahead of Bush in recent polls, but
both parties expect the race to tighten. Georgia, like other
Southern states, is part of Bush's presumed base. Alec Poitevint,
state GOP chairman, says,  "I've never felt like it would be a
landslide. But they count victories in presidential elections by
one vote." 
   
   Hawaii (4) _ Hawaii is heavily Democratic, one of the few states
to vote for Dukakis in 1988. The recession has taken its toll on
the state's important tourism industry, and that is further fueling
the anti-incumbent mood.
   
   Idaho (4) _ Only a GOP catastrophe will prevent Bush from
carrying the state, which gave the Bush-Quayle ticket 62 percent
support in 1988.
   
   Illinois (22) _ Bush is behind in Illinois, but Republicans
expect the gap to close. GOP Gov. Jim Edgar says,  "It's going to
be close, so everything's going to make a difference." 
   
   Indiana (12) _ The GOP ticket has the upper hand in Vice
President Dan Quayle's state, which has gone Democratic only four
times this century. Still, Ann DeLaney, executive director of the
Indiana Democratic Party, contends,  "Bill Clinton's in the
ballpark here." 
   
   Iowa (7) _ Officials of both parties agree the race will be
close.  "Bill Clinton would carry Iowa today, but the numbers will
look a lot closer on election day than they do today,"  says
Democratic Attorney General Bonnie Campbell. Republican National
Committeewoman Gwen Boeke rates the race a tossup.
   
   Kansas (6) _ Clinton took a modest lead here after the
Democratic convention, despite the state's Republican tradition and
20-point advantage in registered voters. Republican Sen. Nancy
Kassebaum says she thinks Bush will win the state but  "I think
people still want to be convinced. There is a fair amount of
cynicism." 
   
   Kentucky (8) _ Although Kentucky generally goes Republican in
presidential elections, this year Bush is waging an uphill battle
against Clinton.
   
   Louisiana (9) _ The state usually votes Republican, but this
year both parties predict a tight race. The state's sizeable black
population is a factor that could work to Clinton's advantage. Ross
Perot had a huge following here, and it's not entirely clear where
his vote went.
   
   Maine (4) _ Recent polls put Clinton ahead in the state where
Bush has vacationed since a child. Republican Sharon Miller, chief
of staff to Gov. John R. McKernan, says that so far the Clinton
organization  "has been masterful and the Bush campaign has been
less than masterful." 
   
   Maryland (10) _ Maryland is a traditionally Democratic state
that voted Republican in 1984 and 1988.  "Bill Clinton probably is
a pretty strong favorite ... unless his campaign totally
collapses,"  says Brad Coker, head of Mason Dixon Political-Media
Research.
   
   Massachusetts (12) _ Massachusetts is expected to be a Clinton
state, given its strong Democratic history. This was the only state
that went for McGovern in 1972, although Reagan won narrowly in
1980 and again in 1984.
   
   Michigan (18) _ A major battleground state in the fall. Home to
so-called Reagan Democrats, Michigan is leaning towards Clinton,
recent state polls suggest. Bush was here this week asserting that
Clinton's proposal to raise auto fuel-efficiency standards would
cost the jobs of 40,000 Michigan auto workers.
   
   Minnesota (10) _ Recent polls show a substantial Clinton lead in
a state no Republican has carried since Richard Nixon in 1972.
   
   Mississippi (7) _ This conservative Southern state has not voted
Democratic since endorsing Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bush seems ahead,
although as elsewhere the prospects of a tight race loom.  "It is
fun to watch a horse race for a change,"  says Marty Wiseman, a
political scientist at Mississippi State University.
   
   Missouri (11) _ A major battleground state. Bush carried it in
1988 and plans frequent appearances here this time. Clinton
concluded his first bus tour in St. Louis and has focused much
attention on the state, which most analysts now view as a tossup.
   
   Montana (3) _ This conservative mountain state usually votes
Republican, but a Lee Newspapers poll earlier this month showed
Clinton with a 49-37 lead over Bush. Republicans say the margin has
narrowed in the aftermath of the GOP convention.
   
   Nebraska (5) _ Nebraska has been a GOP presidential bastion for
nearly three decades, but both Democratic and Republican
strategists this year see it as more of a battleground. Bush
 "would win today, but it would be relatively close,"  says former
Gov. Charles Thone, a Republican.
   
   Nevada (4) _ The most recent poll, taken just before the GOP
convention, showed Clinton with a 20-point lead in this normally
conservative state. Still, most analysts give the state to Bush.
 "Once the voters sit down in November and decide, they're going to
pick George Bush,"  says Keith Lynam, state GOP director.
   
   New Hampshire (4) _ Bush may be slightly ahead in this GOP
stronghold, but Tom Rath, a delegate to the Republican convention,
says,  "Given the economy of New Hampshire, this is not the state
for him to try to blow off in any way, shape or form." 
   
   New Jersey (15) _ Bush has gained in popularity in New Jersey
following the Republican National Convention, a recent poll
indicates, although Clinton remains ahead. Bush selected this state
last week to unveil a $10 billion five-year jobs program and is
expected to focus considerable attention here.
   
   New Mexico (5) _ Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly
2-to-1 here, but the state historically votes for Republican
presidential candidates.
   
   New York (33) _ Bush lost New York in 1988 and many GOP
candidates in the state are putting distance between themselves and
the president. Lee Miringoff, a pollster at Marist College in
Poughkeepsie, says the Bush camp's attacks on Gov. Mario Cuomo show
New York isn't on Bush's  "must win"  list. And Republican leaders
suggest they aren't devoting too much energy to capturing the
state.
   
   North Carolina (14) _ Polls showed Clinton clinging to a narrow
lead over Bush after the Republican convention, but state GOP
leaders say they expect the state to go firmly with Bush once
things settle down further.
   
   North Dakota (3) _ No Democrat has carried the state since
Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a recent poll shows Clinton in a
virtual dead heat with Bush. Most analysts expect the state to
return to the GOP column once the dust settles.
   
   Ohio (21) _ The state overwhelmingly supported Bush four years
ago and Ronald Reagan twice before that. Still, Clinton had a lead
before the GOP convention. Republican leaders say they expect Bush
to slowly pull ahead.  "We are going to peak on November third," 
says Gov. George Voinovich, a longtime Bush ally. But Democrats see
the state as a real target of opportunity.
   
   Oklahoma (8) _ Oklahoma has backed Republican presidential
candidates in nine of the past 10 elections. But state GOP chairman
Clinton Key calls the race here a dead heat. There is rampant
anti-incumbent sentiment, underscored this week when voters in the
GOP primary threw out of office Rep. Mickey Edwards, the
fourth-ranking House Republican.
   
   Oregon (7) _ Dukakis won here in 1988 and the state is generally
viewed as Democratic-leaning.
   
   Pennsylvania (23) _ Both Democrats and Republicans give Clinton
the edge right now. But GOP leaders say they think they can turn
things around in a state that Bush carried in 1988. Pennsylvania's
rejection last year of former Attorney General Richard Thornburgh
in an off-year Senate race was an early sign of the anti-incumbent
mood sweeping the nation.
   
   Rhode Island (4) _  "Bill Clinton should do extremely well
here,"  says Jeff Beatrice, Clinton's state director. But Joan
Quick a state GOP official, says that once  "voters compare the two
candidates, Bush will pull ahead."  The state is heavily
Democratic.
   
   South Carolina (8) _ Bush should take this conservative,
pro-military bastion of the South. And the state's popular
governor, Carroll Campbell, is one of Bush's most ardent
supporters. Still, polls taken before the GOP convention showed
Clinton with a slight edge.
   
   South Dakota (3) _ Democrats have not won here since 1964, but
state Republicans concede there is widespread dissatisfaction with
Bush's handling of the economy.  "My sense is that it's a very
close race,"  says Republican Gov. George Mickelson.
   
   Tennessee (11) _ Tennessee Republicans and Democrats alike say
they believe Clinton holds a lead in the state right now. Both cite
Tennessee Sen. Al Gore's spot on the Democratic ticket as the main
reason. But Gwen McFarland, Democratic party vice chairwoman, says,
 "I don't think we're going to get it without a fight." 
   
   Texas (32) _ The battle for the nation's third-largest state
will be intense. If Bush doesn't carry his adopted home state
 "he's yesterday's headlines,"  says George Christian, political
consultant and former press secretary for Lyndon Johnson. A Rice
University poll released the day before the GOP convention gave
Clinton a 17-point lead in Texas, but GOP officials say the gap has
since narrowed.
   
   Utah (5) _ Bush must win big in Utah, both Republicans and
Democrats agree, or he's in big trouble.
   
   Vermont (3) _ Both Republicans and Democrats suggest Vermont may
be up for grabs.
   
   Virginia (13) _ Bush handily won Virginia in 1988 without making
a campaign stop. Virginia still looks like GOP country, but Bush
may not win so easily this time.
   
   Washington (11) _ Washington Republicans say Bush will score big
some points with his support for timber jobs over environmental
protection.  "If the election were held today, Clinton would win," 
says Washington state GOP chairman Ben Bettridge,  "but it's going
to get closer and closer." 
   
   West Virginia (5) _ The state is a Democratic stronghold that
has suffered economically during Bush's term. For Bush to win here,
 "somebody will have to make a real big mistake,"  says Troy
Stewart, a Marshall University political science professor.
   
   Wisconsin (11) _ Although Clinton built a big lead here after
the Democratic convention, leaders of both parties predict a close
vote in November. Barbara Rolland, who was a GOP delegate in
Houston, gives Bush only a 50-50 chance of carrying the state.
 "It's going to be tough,"  she says.
   
   Wyoming (3) _ Wyoming hasn't supported a Democratic candidate
since 1964.  "I expect Bush would win by a narrow margin now, a
solid margin in November,"  says Sundance rancher Nels Smith, a
delegate to the GOP convention.
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections