From: Cary.Oler@mailbox.bison.mb.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc
Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast and Review - 25Sep-04Oct
Date: 25 Sep 92 03:59:17 GMT

Organization: University of Lethbridge


               ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                       September 25 to October 04, 1992

                Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                   P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
                                   T0K 2E0
                    Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008

                                  ---------

SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
----------------------------------------------------

10-DAY SOLAR/RADIO/MAGNETIC/AURORAL ACTIVITY OUTLOOK

  | Solar |HF Propagation  +/- CON|SID PROB. Es  AU.BKSR  DX| Mag| Aurora |
  |Activty|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|ENH LO MI HI  LO MI HI  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
--|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------|
25|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  25 -05  75| 15 NA NA NA  01 05 10 30|2 07|NV NV LO|
26|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  25 -05  75| 20 NA NA NA  01 05 10 30|2 07|NV NV LO|
27|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  25 -05  75| 20 NA NA NA  01 10 15 30|2 08|NV NV LO|
28|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  70| 20 NA NA NA  01 15 20 30|2 10|NV NV LO|
29|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -05  70| 20 NA NA NA  02 15 20 30|2 10|NV NV LO|
30|  LOW  | G  G  P  F  30 -05  65| 20 NA NA NA  03 25 30 30|3 12|NV NV MO|
01|  LOW  | G  F  P  P  30 -10  60| 20 NA NA NA  05 30 40 35|4 16|NV LO MO|
02|  LOW  | G  F  P  P  30 -15  60| 20 NA NA NA  05 30 40 35|5 25|NV LO MO|
03|  LOW  | G  G  P  P  30 -15  60| 20 NA NA NA  05 30 40 35|4 23|NV LO MO|
04|  LOW  | G  G  F  F  30 -10  60| 20 NA NA NA  03 25 35 30|4 20|NV NV MO|

DEFINITIONS:

Date (day only)
Possible Magnitude of Solar Flaring (LOW=C-class, MOD=M-class, HIGH=M or X)
HF Propagation Conditions for LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and POlar areas (see below)
HF Short Wave Fade Probability (in %)
HF Maximum Usable Frequency in +/- percent above seasonal normals.
HF Prediction CONfidence Level (in %)
VHF Sudden Ionospheric ENHancement Probs (in %), weighted for low-mid lats
PROBability of "s"poradic E (Es) during the UT day for low, mid and high lats
VHF AUroral BacKScatteR Probs (in %) for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes
VHF Overall Global DX Potential (in %) - weighted for Low and Middle latitudes
Geomagnetic Activity Kp Index (peak value - see below)
GeoMAGnetic Activity Ap Index (peak value - see below)
AURORAl Activity for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes (see below)

HF Prop. Quality rated as: EG=Extremely Good, VG=Very Good, G=Good, F=Fair,
   P=Poor, VP=Very Poor, EP=Extremely Poor.
Probability of Sporadic E (Es) for the various latitudes is given in percent.
Kp Planetary Index rated: 0=V.Quiet, 1=Quiet, 2=Unstld, 3=Active, 4=V.Active,
   5=Minor Storm, 6=Major Storm, 7=Maj-Sev Storm, 8=Severe Storm, 9=V.Severe.
Ap Planetary Index rated: 0-7=Quiet, 8-16=Unstld, 17-29=Active,
   30-49=Minor Storm, 50-99=Major Storm, Severe Storm >=100.
Auroral Activity rated: NV=Not Visible, LO=Low, MO=Moderate, HI=High,
   VH=Very High.


PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (25 SEP - 04 OCT)
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |***|** | * | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   | **|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |** |** |** |** |***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|

                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%

NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.


60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
         ____________________________________________________________
     90 |                                          J                 |
     86 |                                         JJ                 |
     81 |                                         JJ                 |
     76 |                                         JJ                 |
     72 |                                         JJ       J         |
     68 |                 J                       JJ       J         |
     63 |                 J                       JJ       J         |
     58 |                 J                       JJ       J         |
     54 |                 J                       JJ       J         |
     50 |                 J           J           JJ       J         |
     45 |                 J           J           JJ       J         |
     40 | M               J           J           JJ       J         |
     36 | M               J           JM          JJ       J         |
     32 | M               J           JM          JJM      J         |
     27 | M               J           JMA         JJM      J         |
     22 | M            A  J           JMA         JJM      JA        |
     18 |AMA           A AJ           JMA   AAAAAAJJM      JA        |
     14 |AMA           A AJ  A  A    AJMAAAAAAAAAAJJM      JA      U |
      9 |AMAUUUUUUUU   AUAJU AU A    AJMAAAAAAAAAAJJMU UUUUJAUUUU  UU|
      4 |AMAUUUUUUUUQQQAUAJUUAUQAUUU AJMAAAAAAAAAAJJMUUUUUUJAUUUUUUUU|
      0 |AMAUUUUUUUUQQQAUAJUUAUQAUUUQAJMAAAAAAAAAAJJMUUUUUUJAUUUUUUUU|
         ------------------------------------------------------------
                         Chart Start Date:  Day #219

NOTES:
     This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
     A-index or the Boulder A-index.  Graph lines are labelled according
     to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day.  The left-
     hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
     Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
     J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
----------------------------------------------------------
     ____________________________________________________________
159 |                                                            |
156 |                         *                                  |
153 |                         *                                  |
150 |                         *                                  |
147 |                         *                                  |
144 |             *           *                                  |
141 |            **           *                                  |
138 |           ***           *                *                 |
135 |           ****      *  **                *                 |
132 |           *****     ** **                **                |
129 |        ********* ********                ***               |
126 |        ******************                ***    *  *       |
123 |       ********************               ***    *  *       |
120 |       *********************              ***    ****       |
117 |       *********************             **************     |
114 |       *********************             **************     |
111 |       **********************            ***************  **|
108 |      ***********************            *************** ***|
105 |      ***********************         **********************|
102 |     *************************        **********************|
099 |**   *************************       ***********************|
096 |*******************************  *  ************************|
093 |************************************************************|
090 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #208


GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
-----------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
128 |                                                            |
127 |*                                                           |
126 |***                  *****                                  |
125 |*******     *********************                           |
124 |************************************************************|
123 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #208

NOTES:
     The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
     by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
     Ottawa).  High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
     activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
     The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day
     mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux.


CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
---------------------------------------------

     ____________________________________________________________
172 |                                                            |
165 |             *                                              |
158 |            **                                              |
151 |         *  ***                                             |
144 |         *  ***                                             |
137 |        *******       *                                     |
130 |       ********    * **                                     |
123 |       ******** *  * **                                     |
116 |       **********  ****                                     |
109 |     * **********  ****                          *         *|
102 |     ************  *******                      **        **|
095 |     ************  *******                      ** *   * ***|
088 |     ************  *******                   * *** *********|
081 |*    ************  ********            *     ***************|
074 |*    ************ *********           *****  ***************|
067 |** ************** *********           *****  ***************|
060 |****************************      *  ***********************|
053 |****************************    * *  ***********************|
046 |****************************    *** ************************|
039 |****************************** *****************************|
032 |****************************** *****************************|
025 |************************************************************|
     ------------------------------------------------------------
                        Chart Start:  Day #208

NOTES:
     The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
     daily sunspot number counts as reported by the 

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Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc