From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sat, 10 Oct 1992 02:51:59 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               08 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 283, 10/09/92
10.7 FLUX=121    90-AVG=121        SSN=139      BKI=3224 4433  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B3.2     FLU1=8.0E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2225 5443  PAI=021
  BOU-DEV=025,017,018,058,040,046,025,020   DEV-AVG=031 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.8   @ 2245UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 1810UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.5
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 2310UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2300UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.4%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 1300UT     PCA-MIN= -3.5DB @ 1735UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55438NT @ 0903UT   BOUTF-MIN=55372NT @ 1740UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+218NT@ 2023UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-036NT@ 1406UT  G7-AVG=+080,+031,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+221NT@ 2029UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-040NT@ 2026UT  G6-AVG=+091,-010,+027
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,110;SESC:115,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2344 5333 2234 4332  27DAY-AP=009,008   27DAY-KP=3223 3322 2222 2233
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:13NT@0917UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low today.  The largest flare of the day was a small
class C2.8 event at 22:45 UT.  Stabilization and simplification occurred in
Regions 7306 (S08W03) and 7303 (S13W48).  Both lost their small magnetic
delta configurations over the last 24 hours.

     Very little additional activity was observed.

     Regions 7307 (S17E40) and 7308 (N11E09) were numbered today as small,
simple spot groups.

     Recent coronal observations show a large southern polar coronal hole
with an inferred extension to a heliographic latitude of S20 presently on the
central meridian.  This feature could prove to be modestly geoeffective
sometime after approximately 12 October.

     Solar activity is expected to be mostly low.  There is a continuing
possibility for an isolated M-class flare from either Region 7303 or 7306.
The potential for major levels of activity have diminished given the decay
and simplification which has occurred in these regions over the last 24
hours.

     The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled until 09:17 UT when a
second sudden magnetic impulse was observed.  This impulse was similar in
magnitude to yesterdays SI and measured 13 nT at Boulder.  Recent minor
flare activity is a possible cause of these disturbances.  The field is
expected to continue mostly unsettled over the next 72 hours.  There is a
chance levels of activity could become mildly enhanced by 12 October in
response to a southern polar coronal extension.

     HF propagation conditions deteriorated markedly over the high and polar
latitude regions today.  The recent geomagnetic disturbances produced poor to
very poor propagation over many high and polar latitude signal paths.  Most
middle and low latitude paths were only mildly affected.  It appears the
enhanced propagation that was observed over the last several days has ended.
Near-normal propagation is expected over the low and middle latitude paths
with below-normal to near-normal propagation over the high and polar latitude
regions.  Night-sector signals are expected to be affected by fading,
multipathing, and occasional enhanced absorption - particularly over the high
and polar latitude paths.  Sunspot numbers and 10.7 cm solar emissions are
expected to fall over the next 3 to 5 days as the major regions responsible
for these conditions decay and rotate beyond the west solar limb.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7298  N17W69  347  0140 DAO  09  007 BETA
7301  S17W56  334  0030 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7303  S14W48  326  0160 DAI  10  018 BETA-GAMMA
7305  N11W24  302  0050 CSO  04  006 BETA
7306  S08W02  280  0120 DAI  10  030 BETA-GAMMA
7307  S17E40  238  0010 BXO  05  005 BETA
7308  N11E09  269  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7299  N13W54  332                    PLAGE
7300  N12W33  311                    PLAGE
7304  N03W73  351                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 OCTOBER TO 12 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7287 N08   169
7283 S15   166
7288 S17   151


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
60   N20E16 N15E11 N22W22 N22W22  287  ISO   POS   008 10830A
61   N40E76 N22E28 N22E28 N46E71  222  ISO   POS   010 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S20 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.

**  End of Daily Report  **
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