From: higgins@fnala.fnal.gov (Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey)
Subject: NASA workshops on detection and interception (was Re: asteroid impact)
Organization: Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1992 05:19:17 GMT
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In article <1992Oct11.000556.2350@techbook.com>, szabo@techbook.com (Nick Szabo) writes:
> In article <1992Oct8.102322.6660@arbi.Informatik.Uni-Oldenburg.DE> Onno.Meyer@arbi.informatik.uni-oldenburg.de (Onno Meyer) writes:
>>I read a newspaper notice concerning an asteroid (or some other
>>kind of rock) passing the earth with ... million miles distance.
>>The paper said that a rock that would hit the earth could be deflected
>>with nuclear arms.
> 
> [Nick's discussion of deflection problem deleted]
> 
> A couple projects if funded could remedy our ignorance.
> These projects would cost only $70 million apiece, or in total
> 1/10 of 1% -- one-one-thousandth -- the cost of NASA's space
> station.  The first is Spacewatch, to find and track all dangerous 
> earth-approaching asteroids.  The second would be a survey to use big 
> telescopes and spectroscopy to determine the composition of these bodies.  
> These projects are also critical to getting raw materials from these 
> asteroids in the future, so we kill two birds with one stone (so to speak :-)

People seriously interested in these questions will want to get hold
of *The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International
Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop*.  The group was chaired by David
Morrison of the University of Hawaii.  It met a number of times during
1991, and the report was released earlier this year.  I believe copies
can be obtained from NASA Headquarters in Washington; start by asking
the Public Affairs Office, NASA Headquarters, 600 Independence Avenue,
Washington, DC  20546 (202)453-1549.  To quote from the press release:

>     The NASA-sponsored Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop
>judged asteroids with diameters 1 km or larger the most
>dangerous objects in terms of potential for causing catastrophic
>global effects on Earth.  Impacts of such asteroids are extremely
>rare and can be detected with current ground-based technology,
>most likely decades in advance of any collision.

Later, in January 1992, Los Alamos National Laboratory hosted a
Near-Earth-Object Interception Workshop.  This group worked on the
question of how to *prevent* asteroid collisions.  Their report isn't
out yet, having run into both political and budgetary problems (they
ran out of money to pay their editor).
 
Short overviews of both workshops, authored by some of their
participants, appeared in the May/June 1992 issue of *Mercury*, the
magazine of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. They were
accompanied by an article by Fran Smith of the *San Jose Mercury
News*, "A Collision over Collisions: A Tale of Astronomy and
Politics."

According to Smith's account, Morrison persuaded Congressional
committees "that you didn't have to be a nut or a tabloid editor to
contemplate cosmic collisions."  Thus NASA's FY 1991 authorization
bill included a requirement to report to Congress on the asteroid
hazard; that's how these two workshops got started.  

Smith describes a disagreement between Morrison and John Rather,
assistant director for space technology at NASA Headquarters, and a
member of the SDI community before he came to NASA.  Morrison's group
emphasized large objects, bigger than a kilometer in diameter, which
could cause regional or global cataclysm-- but which are eminently
detectable in ground-based telescopes.  Rather's group, which included 
weapons physicists from Livermore and Los Alamos, was more interested
in objects 4 to 20 meters across-- hard to find with telescopes, but 
more common, and easier to destroy or deflect with SDI-derived
technology plus nuclear weapons. 

Names of such prominent SDI advocates as Edward Teller, Lowell Wood,
Roderick Hyde, and Gregory Canavan appear in the article, but it's not
clear to me who among them were actually involved with the
"Interception" workshop (Canavan was).  "Several months ago, after
several astronomers got their hands on a near-final draft calling for
`star-wars' technology and nuclear bombs," Smith writes, "they angrily
demanded that NASA revise these recommendations-- or drop their names
from the report."  She does not name these people, but long-time
opponents of SDI like Louis Friedman and John Pike are among the
members of Morrison's workshop.

My impression, from Smith's article, is that a number of specialists
in asteroid astronomy believe that organizing a search for possible
collisions is a good idea, but is difficult enough to sell without
getting connected to a weapons-development project.  Odds are that if
the search finds a large asteroid or comet due to collide with the
Earth, there will be years or decades of warning.  One could bet that
there would be plenty of time to develop a defense *after* such
detection.  Yet it might make sense to have collision-defense
development proceed in parallel with the search, at least at a modest
level.

In the same issue of *Mercury*, Gregory Canavan and Johndale Solem of
Los Alamos write in their summary, "Interception of Near-Earth
Objects:"  "The premiums for such insurance vary.  A few million
dollars per year could support observations and theory on detection
and interception.  A few tens of millions per year could provide
research on the technologies for interception, the dedicated
instruments needed to search for large Earth-threatening NEOs, and
research on the sensors needed to detect smaller asteroids at the
ranges desired.  A few hundred million dollars could develop and test
the robotic spacecraft missions needed to characterize NEOs of all
sizes.  Unfortunately, confusion over the relative priorities of
detection and interception has thus far delayed action on either,
although preliminary estimates indicate that either would justify the
research."

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