From: kim@magneto.physics.auburn.edu (Han-jung Kim)
Subject: Re: %%%%%%  T H E   L O S E R,   DJ    (Also, To: Mr. Han-jung Kim)
Message-I.d.: <1993Jan1.183714.39878@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu>
Organization: Auburn University, Auburn, AL
Date: Tue, 5 Jan 1993 17:59:06 GMT

>
>                  to many polls results,  DJ led YS by 1 or 2 % at that time.
                                          ????????????????????????
>
>                  Many of swing votors in TK and PK decided to vote for
>
   [ nice opinion deleted]

Thank you for your personal opinion.

To tell the truth, I did not mind who be the korean Prez. One year ago, I
have favored YS but after long discussion with several of my friend over here
I concluded that each candidate had pro and con respectively. So
I just became curiouse who was the final winner and their campaign, for
in the future I might be a brain of a certain candidate whether he would
be politician or not. So I wanted to analyse regradress of who would be the
Prez.  As Minho told, the deep and variable view point may help the MINJU-new
generation to prepare for the next election.

Anyway I am enjoying the discussion on this topic.

I hav followed the poll done by korean research company from April to November
last year and recently I have read CHOSUN ILBO which released the 5-polls
donw by KOREAN GALLUP (?). Both sources have shown that DJ has been led by
YS 5%-9% from the beginning of the last year and DJ has never led YS at least
one time.

This information seems different from yours.   The director of korean Gallup
pointed out about the structure of the election as two kim's battle from the
beginning of the election and the question was how much DJ could reduce the
GAP between YS and himself.

The 5 time-poll done by CHOSUN ilbo and KOREAN GALLUP in NOVEMBER, 1992
showed DJ have never lead YS even one time and also the gap was always more
than 5%.

I remember that the DJ's campaign headquater assured that at the final stage
of the electiion DJ led 1%-2% ober YS as YOU CLAIMED, but korean research poll
and korean Gallup poll did not show any possibility which could support
the claim as MINJU did.    

Contrary to the MINJU's claim, MINJA asurred that YS could win the election
by more than 1 million ballots and finally MINJA's poll result turned to be
correct.   Also CY Jung's election heasquater confessed that they was
wrong dreaming after the election. 

Therefore I am not sure which poll MINJU had quoted for the election campaign,
and Mr Minho referred to.   

Last year, the first poll by Korean research company show DJ was 8% behind the
YS and DJ did not reduce the GAP finally. 

This is the most different viewpoint between MINJA and MINJU.    

Thus I have no information with which I agree that PUsan metting is the
major factor YS could win.  

Before and After the pusan meeting, the korean GALLUP poll did not
show any change and MINJA did not mind about it. But
MINJU tried to use that accident to attack the MINJA efficiently by qustioning
the attitude of the goverenment but unfortunately that campaign did not
work.      

So in my viewpoint, it is not reasonable to claim that PUSAN meeting was the
threshold which stole the victory of DJ. 

Rather, I think that DJ's campaign assistants were resposible for the
losing or DJ's charater that he was so clever that no brain could assist DJ,
or MINJU was too assured to win believing that korean people seemd to hate
the current government too much.    

Of courde, one of my friend said that the population of Jyungsand Do is
much larger than Honam and that was major breaking factor. But
I have no idea if this is true of not, because in seoul, I herad lot of
honam people live.

Anyway  If I were a brain of MINJU, I'd rather use correct poll and
advise to DJ for better stratagy.

Mr. MINHO, if you have another poll result, I want to see it and scrap it
in my libray.   Thank you.
 
all the 5 time poll 
result in NOVEMBER, 1992 resul