From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank)
Subject: Re: Rickey Henderson v Nolan Ryan -- Stat-head call to arms!
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations
Date: Thu, 16 Apr 1992 04:42:38 GMT

In article <1992Apr16.101735.2569@otago.ac.nz> guilford@otago.ac.nz writes:
>> But the opportunity cost of not pitching Nolan Ryan is *not*, say, 200-300
>> innings of "an average pitcher."  You have to measure it from the replacement
>> baseline.  I would guess that would be approx. a 4.5 ERA pitcher, maybe even
>> higher.  Over the course of his career, that's over 750 runs difference
>> he's made to his teams.
>
>If it's 75, then his record of 314-278 suggests a replacement baseline
>of 239-353, or a .404 winning percentage.  That seems a bit low, doesn't
>it?

For the teams Ryan was pitching for?  It's probably too high.  Who are the
1974 California Angels going to use to pitch 332 innings?

Or look at 1981, when he was with the Astros.  Twenty-one starts,
three shutouts, 149 innings, 99 hits, *2* home runs, 68 walks, 140 K's,
ERA of 1.69, an RA just above 2.  And he only went 11-5.

Or 1972, his first season with the Angels.  Twenty complete games, *nine*
shutouts, a total ERA of 2.28, which is still barely above 3 when you
take out the shutouts.  Five hits (ok, and five walks) and ten strikeouts
and less than half a home run per nine innings.  He went 19-16, or 10-16
when he didn't shut out his opponent.

>The real problem with Ryan is that, besides the `72-`74 burst and the
>`89-`91 burst, he just hasn't been particularly good.  These are
>certainly the only two periods in his career in which anyone looking
>at his team's stats (for a year or over several years) would say, "this
>guy is the team's ace."  The aces on his teams have been named Tanana
>or Niekro or Scott.  Ryan from `75 to `79 was 76-73, Tanana was 75-45.
>Ryan from `80 to `85 was 74-59, Niekro was 86-61.  Ryan from `84 to `88
>was 54-58, Scott was 74-50 (5-11 in `84).  Houston was so terrible from
>`84 to `88 that Bob Knepper was only able to go 69-57.

You know better, David.  Ryan had at least as good a season as Scott in 1987,
and you want to credit Scott for 16-13 vs. 8-16 due to abysmal offensive
support for Ryan?

Niekro won a lot of games, but no one in Houston considered him the
ace ahead of Ryan.  I see the Astros aces looking like:

1980, first half: Richard
1980-1984: Ryan
1985-1988: Scott (though the perception of Scott as ace prob'ly didn't
		  hit until 1986, and Ryan had a better (though unluckier)
		  1987.)

Ryan's been the best (though not the most durable) pitcher for Texas
while he's been there.

Tanana was only better than Ryan for a Clemens-like stretch of 1975-77,
and about as good in 1978.  Ryan had a better 1974 and 1979, and Tanana
wasn't in the rotation in 72 or 73.  Scott also had one of the most
amazing seasons ever in 1986.  Are you going to penalize Ryan because
he had teammates on the pitching staffs with short but sensational
bursts? 
-- 
Ted Frank          + "He wanted to be the car rather than the thimble or the
1307 E 60 St, #109 +  hat."  -- District attorney explaining Marc Cienkowski's
U o' C Law Skool   +  murder with bow and arrow of Michael Klucznik in
Chi, IL 60637      +  Doylestown Borough, PA over a game of Monopoly.