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Date:         Wed, 23 Dec 1992 18:03:26 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      On Bosnia, Serbia and a Potential "Third Balkan War," #800

On Bosnia, Serbia and a Potential "Third Balkan War"

The tragedy, and strangeness, in the Balkans continue. Apparently
many believe that the fighting will spread to Macedonia, especially
in the wake of the apparent re-election of Slobadan Milosevic as
President of Serbia this past weekend.

I listened to an interview of a BBC reporter who comes from
Yugoslavia, and who has just written a book about the area called
_The Fall of Yugoslavia. His name is Misha Glenne (?), and he felt
strongly that Macedonia would be the next place the Serbs went after,
especially as they are not recognized as a country, and there's a
large Serb minority there. His feeling was that the Serbs would try
to create a Macedonian Serbia as they have in Bosnia and Croatia. He
stated that Greece actually supported the Serbs in this, as they are
opposed to Macedonia's existence.

However, as always in the Balkans, there is a complication. There are
also a large number of Albanians, Bulgarians and Turks in Macedonia,
many of whom are Moslems and who would militantly oppose annexation
by the Serbs, and if these groups were attacked, the nations from
which they came would probably decide to intervene. The fellow from
the BBC predicts a "Third" Balkan War.

_The Encyclopedia of Military History, by the Dupuy's, R. Ernest and
Trevor (Second Revised Edition, 1986) states that the First Balkan
War occurred in 1912-13 (p. 926-928) between Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia
and Montenegro against Turkey, over Macedonia (Turkey lost, but the
Serbs and Greece broke into a brawl with Bulgaria, over Macedonia.
Montenegro ceded a city to newly created Albania, see Treaty of
London, 1913)). The Second Balkan War (p. 928) was between Bulgaria
against Serbia and Greece to start with, with Romania and Turkey
joining Serbia and Greece two months into the war (Bulgaria lost, see
Treaty of Bucharest, 1913). The following June, the heir to the
Austrian throne perished at the hands of Serbian terrorists in Bosnia
(Sarajevo, see p.929), and within weeks, Serbia was declared war upon
by Germany, Austria-Hungary versus Serbia, France, Great Britain and
Russia (with many others joining in, Turkey on the side of the
Germans and Austria, Italy eventually on the side of Britain and
France).

So, a Third Balkan War could well be an European war if it spread.
Albania, Greece, Turkey, "rump Yugoslavia," Bulgaria, even Russia,
has some believed interests in this area. Serbia would appear to be
intent on starting such a war. The extreme Nationalists, the Radical
Serbian party, may have won 20% of the Serbian vote. I've heard this
group labelled as "fascists," an "armed para-military gang," Chetniks
and murderers,," "allied with Milosevic to create a Greater Serbia."
It would appear that the Serbs may feel more inclined to this because
with the Nationalists, they may hold a slim majority in the Serbian
Parliament that would most likely agree to a broadened war.

"Most of" 18 relief flights landed in Sarajevo today, a city in
terrible straits, or so it would seem, because of no water, no heat
and minimum electricity. The Serbs surrounding the city reportedly
agree today to allow evacuation of 500 of the oldest and illest "from
each community" in the Sarajevo area, whatever that exactly means.

Meanwhile, at the UN, a hot debate is on, with Great Britain and
France favoring SOME kind of enforcement of the no-fly zone over
Bosnia, while the US favors a reportedly "more aggressive approach"
that would involve maybe as much as bombing Serbian airfields to
destroy their planes on the ground. This approach concerns Britain,
France and Canada because they have troops on the ground they fear
the Serbs would retaliate against.

It would appear that the "war clouds over Europe" syndome is about to
repeat itself, and it is kind of sneakily happening, bit by bit,
slowly and inexorably headed in war's direction because no side is
willing to genuinely negotiate with each other - the Serbs because
they're winning, the Bosnians and Croats because of the Serbian
enclaves within their lands that Serbia plans to annex into
Milosevic's "greater Serbia," which both Bosnia and Croatia oppose.
I haven't even mentioned Kosovo, but it too could be a deadly spark
also, beginning with Albania, as 90% of "Serbian" Kosovo's 2 million
inhabitants are Albanian. As I recall, by one process or another,
Kosovo passed from Albania to "Yugoslavia" in the wake of World War
I, and in treaties after the war, "Macedonia" became joined to
Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Vojvodina, Bosnia-Hercgovina and Croatia
in what has often been called "the artificial state of Yugoslavia."
Now, the re-fragmentation of that country is in earnest, back to the
maps that precede 1914.

In the last few hours, Radio Belgrade announced that the Commander in
Chief of the "Yugoslav Federal Army," a General Panic (no relation to
Milan Panic), warned that "Yugoslavia" was "prepared to fight any
foreign troops" that invade either Bosnia or Serbia, and that
"threats of intervention aimed at the biological extermination of
Serbs" was "utterly illogical," and "could cause a much wider war,
maybe even to the whole world." The Serb leader in Bosnia, R.
Karadzic, warned that he would demand the withdrawal of UN
peacekeepers if they belonged to any alliance that attacked Bosnia or
Serbia (probably all of them). Butrous-Gahli of the UN wants greater
action against the Serbs, and NATO reportedly has a wide range of
option plans ready for armed intervention of various kinds. An
Italian report as I write this that 3000 US troops were enroute to an
Italian base for this very purpose of intervention was reportedly,
according to NPR, denied by Washington almost as soon as the Italians
reported it.

Worse than the tragedy already unfolding is the idea of European war.
It is amazing, and sobering, to a student of history that the nations
of Europe would be willing to engage in ANOTHER war over this
war-torn land. The brutal raping of Moslem women, the starving siege
of Sarajevo, "ethnic cleansing" has created a climate of "war
crimes," and war, it would appear that fighting is all most of the
folks involved in this mess think will work. The people of Bosnia,
Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and perhaps Macedonia and Kosovo will
probably pay the worst price for war.

Humans are sure slow to learn, aren't they?  VMS
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