From: CP6uH@plains.NoDak.edu
Newsgroups: soc.culture.yugoslavia
Subject: Elections in Croatia ( VREME NDA 22 Jul 1992 )
Date: 22 Jul 92 19:19:51 GMT
Organization: University of North Dakota at Grand Forks


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     "Vreme" News Digest Agency                       No. 43, July 20, 1992
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    Elections in Croatia
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                          For the Love Of the People


           Insisting on the Sleeping  Beauty syndrome threatens the
                      current wearer of the state regalia

    Typically, in  answer to Tudjman's  statement that he  does not see  any
    serious  opponent  in  Croatia  who  could  replace  him,  another seven
    candidates registered for the presidential elections. Before closing the
    list of  candidates, two had to  withdraw - Drago Stipac,  leader of the
    Peasant's  Party,  and  Branko  Horvat,  president  of  the newly formed
    Social-Democratic  Union,  because  neither  collected  the ten thousand
    signatures  required for  nomination. Racan's  ex-communists announced a
    surprise  while gathering  signatures for  Zdravko Tomac  - and then the
    surprise  turned into  resignation. Tomac  said that  he could not fight
    against Tudjman.

    Here are those who have remained in  the game for the love of the people
    and  their  confidence:  Drazen  Budisa,  a  young  and rising Liberal's
    leader;  Ivan  Cesar,  the  rather  subdued  president  of the Christian
    Democrats; Savka Dabcevic-Kucar, the  vigorous president of the Croatian
    People's Party; Silvije  Degen, Zagreb lawyer and vice  president of the
    Socialist  Party; Dobroslav  Paraga, leader  of the  radical and  rising
    Croatian Party of Rights; Marko Veselica, a long-term political prisoner
    and leader of  the Croatian Democratic Party; Antun  Vujic, president of
    one of the  social-democratic parties and the only one  who did not have
    to become a socialist in order to do penance for his communist sins.

    If the  elections are fair,  it would be  very difficult for  Tudjman to
    achieve the success he imagines. That  his charisma is shaky is apparent
    in  the hasty  nature of  the elections.  Croatia did  not get  what its
    government has been  asserting and the votes have  to be reaped quickly,
    before people discover the hoax.

    A difficult and  uncertain autumn awaits Croatia  - the war is  not over
    although the President recently said that  it is, the state is facing an
    economic  collapse -  not only  because the  war is  expensive but  also
    because the devastated Croatia is now becoming a vast refugee camp.

    According to public opinion polls Savka Dabcevic-Kucar and Drazen Budisa
    (with Dobroslav Paraga at their heels) stand some chance in the race for
    the  presidential throne.  It is  claimed that  international forces are
    behind  the first  two, and  they are  finding the  current president of
    Croatia an  increasing obstacle to  resolving the crisis  in the region.
    Dabcevic-Kucar reportedly is supported more  by the Americans, while the
    German liberals  lead by Croatia's beloved  Hans Dietrich Genscher favor
    more Budisa. Allegedly this German, who has done so much for Croatia, is
    now concerned about the democratic "image" of his protegee country. When
    he met with Budisa in Ljubljana  recently, he even agreed to appear with
    him on  the election poster  with the inscription:  Genscher, too, is  a
    liberal.

    The Croats abroad  are also expected to bear  influence in the elections
    but it  is not quite clear  who will get their  votes. The emigrants who
    left Croatia at the  end of WW II remained true to  their beliefs of the
    times so that even today they prefer more the radical Croatian variants.
    Those who have learned something from the world are flabbergasted by the
    democracy which the Croatian President is implementing.

    Tudjman's lust  for power is becoming  counterproductive and his present
    strength is  in the gap,  where somebody else's  charisma is not  rising
    while his own is dissolving.

    The  closest and  most similar  to Tudjman  is Savka Dabcevic-Kucar. Her
    election slogan is: Croatia can do better, which probably means that she
    has to offer only a gradation of  the preceding. It is not a coincidence
    that her posters are being commented on  in the form of five pointed red
    star stickers that have also started  to adorn the posters of the ruling
    party and the  current president. It is believed  that Paraga's Party is
    trying  to  discredit  them  because  they  insist  on  their  being  no
    ex-communists on their  list. But anti-communism has lost  the impact it
    had at the previous elections and  is not in vogue. Dabcevic-Kucar shows
    that  she could  probably do  better than  Tudjman -  her party  and the
    ruling one are  the most organized and industrious;  she demands private
    ownership as the foundation of the present state controlled economy, she
    declares  herself  against  a  hypertrophied  presidential  system,  she
    demands the freedom of the media instead of censorship and restrictions.
    However, she  and her party,  almost as popular  as the ruling  Croatian
    Democratic  Union,  probably  will  get  the  votes  of  those  who  are
    disappointed  with Tudjman.  Those who   had trusted  the father  of the
    nation  are now  calling for  the mother's  lap. It  seems that Savka is
    exploiting this - one of her  election posters says "Democracy is in its
    infancy - give the child to its mother".

    Budisa has something  that neither Dabcevic-Kucar nor Tudjman  have - he
    is young, a new man for new times. Although in his political concept the
    national element still  prevails over the liberal (some  of it is partly
    campaign  tactics)  Budisa  and  his  party,  mostly  young and educated
    professionals, are upholding their principles  which in these times that
    lack such virtue reflect in increased ratings. According to some opinion
    polls,  if he  reaches the  second  round  he might  even beat  Tudjman.
    Contrary to Tudjman who  advocates national reconciliation while showing
    open  antagonism towards  the opposition,  Budisa is  probably the  only
    presidential candidate  who could win  the votes of  Paraga's supporters
    and urban Serbs.

    The outcome of  the elections will be decided by  the election laws, the
    tailoring of  the constituencies and similar  manipulations fashioned to
    the advantage of  the unscrupulous ruling party. Secondly,  the public -
    but actually state controlled - media, particularly TV, have lately been
    imposing  a  total  information  blockade  in  Croatia  to  protect  the
    government from  any shadow of  doubt. The newspapers  and TV have  kept
    silent about the  contents of President Bush's letter  to Franjo Tudjman
    and  are suppressing  the fact  that Croatia  is threatened by sanctions
    which -  if introduced -  could be  as  decisive for the  outcome of the
    elections as a military intervention  in Serbia could become a political
    triumph for Tudjman.
                                                               Jelena Lovric

        Such  large number  of candidates  is  not  only the  answer to  the
        President's   -  for   Croatia  insulting   -  thesis   that  he  is
        irreplaceable. It is also a strategic move by the opposition. One of
        its intentions  is to divide  the votes among  the greatest possible
        number of candidates so that Tudjman - if he cannot be defeated - at
        least does  not win in the  first round. This would  destabilize his
        absolutist position  which, combined with the  Parliament which will
        probably become  more colorful after  the elections than  it is now,
        will be  an aid to democracy  that has almost no  breathing space as
        is. The current President considers the elections over and done with
        as  witness his  acceptance to  cross swords  in a  TV duel with his
        opponent  - but  only if  he enters  the second  round of elections.
        Right now he does not have the  time for a TV showdown because he is
        too preoccupied with the affairs of the state. Tudjman refuses to be
        treated like all the others not only because such a TV confrontation
        might put  him in an  inferior position, but  because any comparison
        would be an insult - his mind frame cannot cope with such things any
        more.

        However, this vote  crushing tactic can backfire. If  there are many
        pretenders to the chair of the wearer of state regalia, things could
        become silly  and Tudjman in  his official limo  would turn out  the
        most serious.

        Such  large number  of candidates  is  not  only the  answer to  the
        President's   -  for   Croatia  insulting   -  thesis   that  he  is
        irreplaceable. It is also a strategic move by the opposition. One of
        its intentions  is to divide  the votes among  the greatest possible
        number of candidates so that Tudjman - if he cannot be defeated - at
        least does  not win in the  first round. This would  destabilize his
        absolutist position  which, combined with the  Parliament which will
        probably become  more colorful after  the elections than  it is now,
        will be  an aid to democracy  that has almost no  breathing space as
        is. The current President considers the elections over and done with
        as  witness his  acceptance to  cross swords  in a  TV duel with his
        opponent  - but  only if  he enters  the second  round of elections.
        Right now he does not have the  time for a TV showdown because he is
        too preoccupied with the affairs of the state. Tudjman refuses to be
        treated like all the others not only because such a TV confrontation
        might put  him in an  inferior position, but  because any comparison
        would be an insult - his mind frame cannot cope with such things any
        more.

        However, this vote  crushing tactic can backfire. If  there are many
        pretenders to the chair of the wearer of state regalia, things could
        become silly  and Tudjman in  his official limo  would turn out  the
        most serious.


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     "Vreme" News Digest Agency                       No. 43, July 20, 1992
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