From: otago.ac.nz!guilford@overmind.mind.org
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: MLB Standings and Scores for Wed, Jul 22, 1992
Date: 23 Jul 92 02:48:00 GMT
Organization: University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
X-mailer: Stadel 3.4a-227
X-Spam-content: irrelevant


> NATIONAL EAST
> Pittsburgh Pirates    51    43    .543    --      5-5    Lost 3  28-21  
23-22
> Montreal Expos        48    46    .511   3.0     z6-4     Won 2  23-22  
25-24
> New York Mets         46    48    .4894  5.0      6-4     Won 1  25-22  
21-26
> St. Louis Cardinals   45    47    .4891  5.0     z4-6    Lost 4  22-19  
23-28
> Chicago Cubs          43    50    .462   7.5      3-7     Won 1  22-22  
21-28
> Philadelphia Phillies 39    55    .415  12.0      3-7    Lost 2  21-24  
18-31

So how come there isn't more exciting analysis on who's going to win
this division?  It seems like a fun race, even the Cubs could still
get hot, especially if they could dredge up a couple OF's who can hit.

What are the historical odds of the Pirates winning from this position?
Anyone have any idea?  I'd guess about 40-50 percent, but it's just a
guess.  Someone needs to enter the date and result of every ML game 
ever played and run a very large regression.

Based on pre-season, I would have said the Mets should be the team
to emerge from the pack.  Obviously Hojo and Saberhagen have been
disappointments, and having no offense at C and SS doesn't help.  The
decision to let Anthony Young roll to a 2-9 record doesn't look very
astute.

Now of course the top challenger looks like the Expos.  I guess I figure
it's a lot more likely that Gardner and Nabholz will come on big in the 
second half than Cardinal guys like Tewksbury and Clark will continue
to pitch well.    

As an old Cub fan, I'd like to see them win, and the Buechele trade is
wonderful --

         Cub 3B since Steve "one to one and" Ontiveros:

         1980 Len Randle
         1981 Ken Reitz
         1982 Ryno
         1983-1985 25 homers and plenty of range
         1986 Cey Speier Trillo Lopes
         1987 Moreland
         1988-1989 Law
         1990 Salazar Ramos Wilkerson
         1991 Salazar Walker Scott Vizcaino
         
-- but of course with the Vizcainos and Dascenzos and Mays and so on
eating up PA's, not much hope.  Maybe Kal can have a colossal second half
and carry them -- their pitching isn't all that bad.  Boskie is not a 
very good pitcher, but the 32 runs he's allowed this year (after 13 starts)
isn't why they're under .500 ....
 
Anyway, any guesses?  There are lots of (implicit, not in anything I've
said, really) exciting questions here for discussion in the NLE race, 
fellas, only a few of which involve responding to some moron who doesn't
understand the ideas behind statistical and non-statistical arguments 
and doesn't care that he doesn't.  And this is just one of 4 very 
interesting races!

> Seattle Mariners      37    58    .389  20.0      4-6    Lost 4  21-26  
16-32

First draft pick time again!

> Cleveland Indians     39    55    .415  18.5      4-6     Won 3  19-26  
20-29

You can tell if the Indians are winning the value of the first draft pick
must be very, very high!

Bill Guilford