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Date:         Wed, 14 Oct 1992 00:18:59 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Georgia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Romania, (#780)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
              christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu, 76701.103@compuserve.com

Russia-

NPR reported earlier today that Gorbachev would be allowed to leave
the country "without restrictions" to attend the funeral of Willi
Brandt in Germany. However, just before I ascended the stairs to come
write this piece, CNN was reporting that Gorbachev was trying to go
via Italy (reasons unexplained) and the government was allegedly
saying "no dice." The NPR report had the Chairman of the
Constitutional Court as who decided to return Gorb's passport, while
the CNN report intimated that it was Yeltsin's decision. One
commentator in the latter story, in Russia, stated that Gorbachev
"would have gotten a UN passport and left anyway" if the Russian
government had continued to deny him permission to leave. Somehow, I
have to believe that if Yeltsin had not wantwd him to leave, Mikhail
would have stayed. However, there was reportedly a great deal of
pressure from outside Russia to let him out if he wanted to go.

In Moscow, the first snow of the 1992-93 winter fell today (it fell
in KC on 8 October, much earlier than usual in both places). Many
apartments in Moscow do not yet have the heat turned on, amidst
continuing rising prices of fuels, and a ruble value reported earlier
today on RUSSIA of 340 rubles to the dollar - double the 165 rubles =
$1.00 at the end of August. The concerns of the West about winter
last year are probably more realistic this year than last, as it
turned out mild and enough aid flowed to stave off food problems.
Somehow, I think the situation may be quite different this winter,
for a couple of reasons. One, I think it'll be a more severe winter
climatically. Two, I think there is more places with need, and less
willingness on the part of the "haves" to pony up for the "have nots"
or the beleaguered.

The Russian Coast Guard was reported this morning to have boarded the
Greenpeace vessel "Solo," attempting to measure radiation levels in
the Kara Sea, and supposedly, the vessel was seized. The government
has been very secretive about this problem, though there has been an
admission that 15,000 drums of radioactive wastes were dumped off the
east side of the island Novaya Zemlya, presumably at some 570 meters
in depth. RFE/RL reported that there are also 15 atomic subs in this
"nuclear graveyard."

Georgia-

Eduard Shevardnadze has been elected the Parliamentary Chairman in
Georgia, with 90-95% of the total vote (neither RFE/RL or CNN
reported the percentage of voters who voted).

Bosnia-

Mortar fire damaged the electricity wires in Sarajevo today, only
hours before it was scheduled to finally go back on. The Bosnian
government announced that crews were willing to brave the murderous
fire from Serb positions to attempt to repair the damage as quickly
as possible.

The city of Sarajevo, like many other Bosnian cities, is in poor
shape. Several buildings are still smoldering, natural gas (the
source of 90% of the city's heat, according to NPR) has been cut off
for some time, as has the water and food supplies. Both the last are
in VERY short supply. As I recall, only about 7 planeloads of food
have arrived in the city since 3 September.

What remains bitterly sad for this observer is the children. As a
parent, it really hurts to hear that large numbers of orphan and
stranded children are going away from home (to England, France,
elsewhere in Europe), primarily without parents, or they are trying
to live a life where there is no water, no heat, no lights, no
schools, the most primitive of medical care, constant gunfire of
varying kinds (mortar, grenades, rifles, artillery, rockets, tanks,
even some air attacks), and mostly trapped (though some are
escaping). They live inside, briefly coming out in too rare lulls in
the fighting. Would this be how you would want your children to live?
THe Bosnian Serbs want Sarajevo to surrender, or die. All attempts to
make the city "demilitarized" have failed.

Kosovo-

Today, large Albanian anti-government demonstrations occurred
throughout the province. No numbers on arrests or injuries were
given. It does strike me that many Serbs in Bosnia have reported
"Kosovo next" after the war is "won" in Bosnia. The Albanian majority
apparently sees this coming, and have begun stepping up the pressure
on the Belgrade government.

Romania-

Ion Iliescu has been elected President of Romania, garnering 61.3% of
the vote, RFE/RL reported today. His opponent got 38.7% in Sunday's
runoff election.


Weather promises to be a negative factor in both Bosnia and Russia,
probably all too soon. Are the nations of the world prepared for the
potential tragedy THAT might unleash? VMS
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