From: wayman@lamar.ColoState.EDU (Jeffrey Wayman)
Subject: Re: 5 most BREAKABLE records
Date: Mon, 09 Nov 1992 06:43:00 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO  80523

In article <7NOV199200532414@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu> camden@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Rany Jazayerli) writes:
>In article <Nov07.014026.5991@yuma.ACNS.ColoState.EDU>, wayman@lamar.ColoState.
>EDU (Jeffrey Wayman) writes...
>>>What I'm interested in is what are the most BREAKABLE records?
>> 
>>My opinions:  Rickey's SB record
>>	      Given Denver's addition, the record for 2B's in a season
>>	      3B's in a season, same reason
>
>	Maybe I'm just stupid, but I don't see why the addition of Denver to
>the National League necessarily means the breaking of the records for most 
>doubles and triples in a season.

I think the park will, I'll explain that more below.

>
>	The record for most doubles in a season, set by Earl Webb in 1934 (?),
>is _67_.  For triples, it's !! 36 !! by Owen Wilson, back in 1912.  Nobody has
>come anywhere close to these records in the last 50 years.  I believe that the
>most doubles hit by anyone since World War II or so was 54, by Hal McRae in 
>1977.  That gap of 13 is a big one to make up; I can envision someone (Edgar
>Martinez?), in a year where the circumstances are perfect, hitting 60 doubles,
>but 67 is a bit steep.  I'm not saying it's unbreakable, just that it would be
>very, very difficult.
>
>	As for the record for triples, well, that one probably IS unbreakable,
>at least given the way that the game is played now.  The highest triple total
>since around 1950 is 21, by Willie Wilson (it's no coincidence that both McRae
>and Wilson played for the Royals - Royals Stadium gives a dramatic boost to
>both double and triple totals).  The difference between 21 and 36 is a lot more
>significant than you might think at first; it's the mathematical equivalent of
>saying that no one has hit more than 36 homers since 1950.  Hitting even 30
>triples is, barring a miracle, impossible under the game's conditions today.
>

Yeah, good numeric arguments, very possibly true.  That kind of comparison
may not hold up because the pitching talent will be a little worse (some
say a lot, we'll see) and breaking ball pitchers will have a little more
trouble getting the ball to break in the thin air.  A good comparison
to do might be to get park records from the last, say, 10-15 AAA seasons
(since the last expansion) and see if there are any more doubles or triples
in Denver.  It'd be interesting.  Another thing - how would Deion Sanders'
totals this year project to a full year?  He had a lot of triples in
a partial season's worth of AB's.

>	Furthermore, I'm not sure why playing in Denver would increase double
>and triple totals at all.  I'm aware that the thinner air there would result
>in the ball travelling farther, but that should only help to increase home-run
>totals.  

No, you can easily control home run totals in thin air by moving the
fences back and raising the fences.  Runs in my mind right field in
Mile High currently is 375 feet from home plate and 10-12 feet high.
Remember, though, backing up the fences makes the outfield bigger.

>The main factor influencing doubles and triples is the presence of 
>artificial turf (e.g. Royals, Busch Stadium), which allows line drives hit in
>the gap to scurry past the outfielders, rather than slowed down by outfield
>grass, limiting the batter to a single.  As far as I know, the stadium in Denver
>(as well as the planned Coors Field) are both grass stadiums, so I don't see
>why doubles and triples would be affected at all.

True, but a lot of balls go into the stands on one or two bounces also;
these never have a chance to become triples.

>
>	Just my two cents' worth; I would appreciate some feedback on this
>topic, specifically what DOES affect the frequence of doubles and triples?
>

The reason I think there'll be more doubles and triples is because
of the extra space created by moving the fences back.  There's going to
be an awful lot of ground to cover out there and anything that goes to
the wall now in Mile High is a *long* way from the bases.  I'm guessing
the Rockies will have a fast outfield, but bring in someone like Pete
Incaviglia and his clodfootedness will really be magnified.  I think 
someone like Deion, the Tim Raines of old or Willie McGee who hits the
ball hard and has great speed could really do some extra base damage in
a full season in that park.  I guess we'll see.

Jeff        wayman@lamar.colostate.edu

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