From: fofp@castle.ed.ac.uk (M Holmes)
Newsgroups: alt.peeves,alt.good.news
Subject: Re: Recession anti-peeves
Date: 6 Apr 92 12:51:45 GMT
Organization: Edinburgh University

pwg@dcs.ed.ac.uk (Paul Goldberg) writes:

>What's so peeveworthy about the recession? Consider the following fine
>characteristics:

[various true and succinct points deleted]

>So re-elect Major! Re-elect Bush! Lets let this recession run and run!

I dunno Paul, I think the Tories have peaked out. This is probably the
best they can do recession-inducement wise. Not that it's a bad effort.
Some London commercial property is down 80% and still falling. That's
serious mayhem by anyone's standards. 

No, I think Labour should have a shot and see what they can do. They
show good promise with this idea of raising high-earner taxes by 21%
(everyone forgets that contracted-out pensions ain't gonna get the
measly 2% NI return any more). That ain't only gonna hit high-earner
properties unless someone can explain how it is that when a 100 grand
property falls to 80 grand, the 80 grand properties are gonna somehow
maintain value: "Duh, now which one should I choose?"

They're gonna plough a billion into the economy to "kick-start" it.
Great thinking Batman. A billion huh? Lesse, six billion got wiped off
the stockmarket in one day when the Polls went Labour's way. That wasn't
even considered very peeveworthy as stockmarket falls go. The real fall
will be on Friday most likely. And where does the Billion come from? Out
of people's pockets. I.e. out of the economy. So, they're gonna take a
billion that people might spend on something they want, take a cut for
the bureacrats, then put what's left to buying stuff that they figure
people oughta want even if they don't: "Like which failing industry
should we prop up this week?". The 70's has already proved that this
plan can't fail to keep a good recession going.

Then there's the borrowing: The Tories figured on borrowing 28 billion.
That's about a grand for every working adult in the yookay. That's a
lot. I wouldn't put a grand on my Access bill frinstance and I probably
earn above average. Did I hear "sound fiscal policies"? This is debt in
the Yoosan League. The guvmint couldn't like say "we're gonna spend
loads of your money this year, but we're gonna be honest about it and
charge you the whole amount now, so what we're looking at is a 20p hike
in taxes, and that's for *all* of you. Pony up!" And that's just to
balance the books, not to pay any back. Nope they were gonna "balance
revenues over the cycle". That's a good one. I wonder how impressed my
bank manager would be by that argument? Still, the banks are the ones
who loaned to the 3rd world and then to property speculators. What do
they know?

But Labour can top even this. They have a cunning plan: "we'll borrow
even more than the Tories." For investment purposes you understand. It
passes them by that if I wanted to borrow to invest, I'd already be
doing exactly that. I don't and they figure I don't know what's good for
me so they're gonna do it for me. The thing about doing this is that the
investment has to pay back more than the interest cost of the loan. With
real interest rates at 6%, the only thing that I figure the guvmint can
invest in during a recession is the DeLorean Scenario. They won't
though, so it's more cash down the tubes.

Even better than this. The Tories figured on more privatisation. Labour
won't do this. So there's a few billion that Labour won't be adding to
the coffers. That means a cut in guvmint spending, a tax hike, or yet
more borrowing (is this reminding you Yoosans of anything?). 

Nope, I think that Labour have an excellent chance of improving on this
recession. Even with Lamont on the team, the Tories just don't have the
stamina to make things seriously worse. It's Labour for us, and what's
the IG index price for puts on house prices?

>Paul.

FoFP