From: roberts@phoenix.ocf.llnl.gov (Don Roberts)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Is NASA really planning to Terraform Mars?
Date: 11 Sep 92 20:37:16 GMT
Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

In article <ryvnn1#.tomk@netcom.com> tomk@netcom.com (Thomas H. Kunich) writes:

>Let's see: China and India are hovering on the raged edge of subsistence
>right now. Most of Africa is one meal away from starvation. -- Why that means
>that more than half of the world is bearly producing enough food to exist
>and no more.

Ah yes, we use the examples of two nations with incredibly corrupt and
inefficient systems of political economy, and a continent that's been
wracked by tribal and civil warfare, and assume the whole planet acts that
way. Very good.

Anyway, you're stats on China and India are out of date. Since privatising
agricultural production in the last ten years, China is doing quite
nicely, food-wise (Tanks-over-protesters-wise is another story). The
Indians are falling all over themselves at the moment discovering new ways
to free up their market and generate wealth. The fall of the Congress
Party from power following Rajiv Ghandi's assassination may turn out to be
one of the best things that ever happened to India (it's tragic personal
dimension aside). As for Africa, any discussion of famine in places like
Ethiopia, Somalia, etc. that doesn't take into account the political roots
of the problem is hopelessly naive.

By the way, whether or not you agree with my interpretation, the mere fact
that I can plausibly cite factors other than population as proximate causes
for famine demonstrates that Malthus oversimplified.

>Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States are producing
>significant surpluses of food, yet not enough to supply the rest of the
>world in a single bad harvest year.

Let's not forget Europe, which is awash in EC price-supported grain.
Interesting that the places that have the *least* problem with food
shortages have the *most* advanced technology--and free(ish) markets.
Wonder what Malthus would say?

>Direct extrapolation of the world's population shows a doubling in the
>next 50 years.

Direct extrapolation?? What about the falling in birth rates in developed
countries? The trick is technological and economic development, not forcing
Africans at gunpoint not to have babies.

>With, presently, only some 25% of the world's population having good and
>sufficient food it leaves me wondering how wrong Malthus was.

Well, since we've ticked China over into the "plenty-o-food" category,
that makes it more like 50%. India's not in such bad shape (certainly
not by Malthusian standards), so there's another 15% or so. Let's call
it 65-70%. Could be better (and will be), but it's not the End of The
World.

Malthus was a boob.

No, that's not fair. *He* didn't know any better.
--
 Dr. Donald W. Roberts
   University of California                                      Physicist
   Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory         Recreational Bodybuilder
   dwr@llnl.gov                                           Renaissance Dude
Xref: sparky sci.space:12529 sci.space.shuttle:2229 rec.radio.amateur.misc:15119