From: grabiner@math.harvard.edu (David Grabiner)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Eck Wins MVP in Horrible Voting
Date: 24 Nov 92 00:34:46 GMT
 <By4Jt6.Cqv@cs.dal.ca><22NOV199212300507@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu><1992Nov23.013626.17063@Princeton.EDU>
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In-reply-to: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU's message of 23 Nov 92 01:36:26 GMT

In article <1992Nov23.013626.17063@Princeton.EDU>, David Marc Nieporent writes:

> In article <22NOV199212300507@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu> doctor8@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Jason Abner Miller) writes:

>>	Yeah, I guess that Devereaux couldn't have had nearly as big
>>an impact batting 575 times for the Orioles as Henderson did batting 375
>>times for the A's.

> First of all, Rickey did *not* bat 375 times.  He had 396 ABs + 95 BB,
> for approximately 490 PAs.  (Devereaux had about 700)

> Secondly, Devereaux certainly did have as big an impact; it just wasn't
> all positive.  Comparing Devereaux to Henderson, Devereaux had 200 more
> plate appearances; he ALSO had 200 more outs.  That means the equivalent
> of all his playing time was getting out every extra AB he had.  What
> good is that?

> Devereaux -- PAs 697  Hits 180  Walks  44  Outs 473
> Rickey ----- PAs 491  Hits 112  Walks  95  Outs 284

Let's look at the difference:

BATTERS        BA   SLG   OBP   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS
DEVEREAUX,M  .276  .464  .321 156 653  76 180 303 29 11 24 107  44  94 10  8
HENDERSON,R  .283  .457  .426 117 396  77 112 181 18  3 15  46  95  56 48 11
difference                     39 257  -1  78 122 11  8  9  61 -51 -38-38 -3 

The value of that bottom line, is the difference between Devereaux's
value and Henderson's value.

Now, the meaning of an extra -51 walks is hard to understand, so let's
change the 51 walks to 40 singles and 11 outs, which have about the same
value to the team (Linear Weights or Runs Created).  Likewise, use the
three extra CS to cancel six stolen bases, and turn the other 32 into
16 extra bases on hits (possibly an underestimate of their value).
Ignore the strikeouts.

BATTERS        BA   SLG   OBP   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS
difference   .184  .320  .184  39 206      38  66 11  4  7       0   0  0  0

The runs and RBI columns are blanked out because they don't make any
sense in a comparison between leadoff and middle-of-the-order hitters.
(If you want the numbers, it's -1 run scored and 47 RBI, neither one of
which is reasonable.)  Would you like to have a player with this
offensive line on your team?  I wouldn't.

If Rickey could have played an extra 206 AB hurt and put up these
numbers, would that make him a better player?  It would make him as good
as Mike Devereaux.  But such play would reduce the number of runs his
team scores; I'd rather have Eric Fox playing instead.  And since
Rickey's job offensively is to maximize the number of runs the A's
score, not the number of runs he scores or drives in, I conclude that he
was a more valuable offensive player in his 500 plate appearances than
Devereaux was in 700.


--
David Grabiner, grabiner@zariski.harvard.edu
"We are sorry, but the number you have dialed is imaginary."
"Please rotate your phone 90 degrees and try again."
Disclaimer: I speak for no one and no one speaks for me.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball