From: tun@quark.SFSU.EDU (Coban Tun)
Subject: ASEAN solidarity
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 93 01:04:52 PST
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01/14 1633  ANALYSIS: ASEAN SOLIDARITY MAY BE KEY TO ...
 
MANILA (JAN. 14) IPS - The Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) is
no match militarily for China.
   But the six-nation grouping may be the key to containing Beijing's
increasingly assertive territorial claims in the region, security experts say.
   ASEAN, they say, has the unique capability to get Asia's military giant to
talk rather than fight.
   "ASEAN is vital in drawing China into the mainstream of the region's security
dialogue," said Robert Scalapino of the University of California-Berkeley.
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   It can do the same thing for countries like Burma and Vietnam which have
been kept at arm's length by the international community, he told academics and
government officials gathered in Manila today.
   There are two conflicting trends in China's foreign policy, he said. On the
one hand, China has made big strides in normalizing its international
relations and has increased its economic, social and cultural ties with the
international community.
   On the other, China has assumed tough stances on issues involving national
sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   Scalapino cited China's conflict with Britain over the future of Hong Kong
and its vigorous assertion of claims over the potentially oil-rich Spratly
Islands which are being disputed by Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the
Philippines.
   Beijing's status as a major arms seller has also been a source of growing
Western concern. China has pointedly refused to sign the new treaty banning
chemical weapons, joining Arab states who refuse on account of Israel's
possession of nuclear arms.
   Though Beijing has formally agreed to abide by the Missile Technology Control
Regime, Western countries remain worried over China's potential for missile
proliferation and the export of technology for weapons of mass destruction.
   The strategy of engaging the Chinese in a regional security dialogue is an
attempt to enhance the trend towards normalization of state-to-state ties over
what Scalapino called Beijing's "high tides of nationalism."
   ASEAN is well-placed to take such initiatives because it is not big enough
to pose a real threat to other nations.
   Paul Evans of the Joint Center for Asia-Pacific Studies of the University
of Toronto and York University describes this as ASEAN's "middle power" status.
   "ASEAN can take the lead where regional powers like Japan cannot," he said.
   Moreover, the group has under its auspices the only existing forum for
regional security dialogue -- the annual foreign ministers' meeting of ASEAN
and its dialogue partners Japan, the United States, the European Community and,
most recently, China and Vietnam.
   ASEAN has already used its diplomatic vantage point to promote dialogue
between the countries involved in the Spratlys dispute.
   At the last ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting, the group issued a declaration
affirming that overlapping claims in the South China Sea should be resolved
through peaceful dialogue.
   Hanoi immediately expressed its support for the declaration and was quickly
joined by ASEAN's Western dialogue partners. That put China on the defensive.
   While expressing support for dialogue, Beijing has been advocating bilateral
talks and resisting attempts to make the South China Sea dispute a subject of
multilateral negotiations.
   Other experts take a more sanguine view of Asia's strategic situation.
   The end of the Cold War has created a "more benign regional environment in
East Asia," said Carolina Hernandez, head of the Manila-based Institute for
Strategic and Development Studies.
   Philippine President Fidel Ramos, who keynoted the Manila seminar, said
"strategic imperatives" act to lower tensions in the South China Sea which
experts say could be the region's next flashpoint.
   "For one, internationally recognized and guaranteed sea lanes cut across the
area, making it in everyone's interest that no single power should exercise
hegemony over the Spratlys," he said.
   "Moreover, it is in the interest of the almost 350 million people bordering
the South China basin that the area remain free of conflict so that all may
share in its resources," he added.
   Hernandez said apprehensions about China in the evolving post- Cold War era
"can be grossly exaggerated." She added: "China's modernization takes
precedence over other issues in its agenda."


Newsgroups: soc.culture.china