From: demarsee@wrdis01.af.mil (Darryl Marsee)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Subject: Re: Computer Predictions for Bowl Match-ups
Date: 21 Jul 92 19:36:41 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: 1926CCSG Robins AFB

}> So, from all this, if we assume whoever's the highest rated team now that
}> stays undefeated will be the National Champion, by program predicts that
}> the 1993 National Champion will be (again):
}> 
}>                            THE  WASHINGTON  HUSKIES
}
}But, didn't this entire series of posts start with this premise? 
}If the initial ratings started with the way last year's ended
}then of course last year's champ repeats.

Not necessarily.  If Washington were playing on the road against another
top 5 team, then they probably wouldn't be favored.  That would then drop
them to 10-1, and they wouldn't have been "the highest rated team now
that stays undefeated".  Penn State would be (ironically).

}How about the initial put-them-all-together-this-is-where-they-are-now
}listing?

Here they is:

   THE DARRYL MARSEE I-A COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS TO BEGIN THE 1992 SEASON
                                                                             
       (Power ratings in parenthesis - ties broken by defensive rating)      
                                                                             
  1. WASHINGTON     (754)  37. BAYLOR         (597)  73. CINCINNATI     (539)
  2. PENN STATE     (713)  38. WEST VIRGINIA  (596)  74. WYOMING        (539)
  3. MIAMI          (706)  39. NORTH CAROLINA (594)  75. SO MISSISSIPPI (539)
  4. MICHIGAN       (695)  40. TULSA          (592)  76. CENTRAL MICH   (535)
  5. OKLAHOMA       (689)  41. LOUISIANA ST   (591)  77. RICE           (534)
  6. FLORIDA STATE  (687)  42. AUBURN         (590)  78. TOLEDO         (533)
  7. CALIFORNIA     (679)  43. N CAROLINA ST  (590)  79. WISCONSIN      (532)
  8. NEBRASKA       (677)  44. HOUSTON        (590)  80. DUKE           (532)
  9. STANFORD       (676)  45. ARKANSAS       (587)  81. PACIFIC        (530)
 10. TEXAS A&M      (669)  46. BOWLING GREEN  (587)  82. MARYLAND       (529)
 11. VIRGINIA       (659)  47. LOUISIANA TECH (584)  83. BALL STATE     (525)
 12. NOTRE DAME     (656)  48. VIRGINIA TECH  (582)  84. OREGON STATE   (515)
 13. FLORIDA        (652)  49. MISSISSIPPI    (580)  85. NORTHWESTERN   (514)
 14. TENNESSEE      (647)  50. MEMPHIS STATE  (580)  86. MISSOURI       (506)
 15. UCLA           (647)  51. WASHINGTON ST  (574)  87. MINNESOTA      (505)
 16. ALABAMA        (644)  52. OREGON         (573)  88. COLORADO STATE (504)
 17. GEORGIA TECH   (630)  53. SAN JOSE STATE (573)  89. WESTERN MICH   (503)
 18. COLORADO       (628)  54. PITTSBURGH     (570)  90. EASTERN MICH   (500)
 19. SYRACUSE       (628)  55. FRESNO STATE   (569)  91. ARMY           (495)
 20. KANSAS STATE   (626)  56. KENTUCKY       (566)  92. AKRON          (494)
 21. BRIGHAM YOUNG  (623)  57. ARIZONA        (566)  93. SW LOUISIANA   (491)
 22. TEXAS TECH     (619)  58. SAN DIEGO ST   (565)  94. NEW MEXICO     (490)
 23. GEORGIA        (618)  59. SOUTH CAROLINA (561)  95. TULANE         (485)
 24. EAST CAROLINA  (618)  60. VANDERBILT     (561)  96. TEMPLE         (484)
 25. SOUTHERN CAL   (616)  61. RUTGERS        (557)  97. LOUISVILLE     (478)
 26. IOWA           (614)  62. PURDUE         (557)  98. SO METHODIST   (477)
 27. ARIZONA STATE  (613)  63. TEXAS EL PASO  (554)  99. KENT           (470)
 28. INDIANA        (613)  64. WAKE FOREST    (549) 100. OHIO           (467)
 29. KANSAS         (613)  65. UTAH STATE     (548) 101. NEVADA         (466)
 30. MISSISSIPPI ST (612)  66. MICHIGAN STATE (547) 102. NAVY           (463)
 31. CLEMSON        (612)  67. HAWAII         (546) 103. NO ILLINOIS    (462)
 32. BOSTON COLLEGE (611)  68. OKLAHOMA STATE (545) 104. NEW MEXICO ST  (456)
 33. TEXAS          (605)  69. UTAH           (544) 105. NEVADA LV      (450)
 34. AIR FORCE      (603)  70. TX CHRISTIAN   (544) 106. ARKANSAS STATE (439)
 35. ILLINOIS       (600)  71. IOWA STATE     (543) 107. FULLERTON ST   (438)
 36. OHIO STATE     (599)  72. MIAMI OHIO     (540)                          
                                                                             
}BTW, Darryl, last year, unhappy with your placement of RU as the #88
}team, I put forth RU as the eventual "most improved' candidate.
}They finished at #61.  What teams rose further?  Probably quite a few.
}I forgot which team's you thought would improve a lot.

I had picked North Carolina, who did do better, but not as much as I
had hoped.  I didn't keep last years beginning figures (wish I had),
but I'd say the big winner had to be Kansas State ... they came from 
nowhere to make my top 20.  California didn't do to bad either.
                          ____                  
Darryl E. Marsee         |    \   1926 CCSG/SCCI 205 Perry Street
Control Data Systems     |  *  \  Robins Air Force Base, GA 31098
demarsee@wrdis01.af.mil  |_____/  demarsee@logdis1.wr.aflc.af.mil