From: tamada@cheshire.oxy.edu (Michael K. Tamada)
Subject: Advanced Boxscore Reading Techniques (was: BOXSCORE pho17orl17.11dec92)
Organization: Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA 90041 USA.
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1992 06:34:13 GMT

In article <42492@sdcc12.ucsd.edu> cs161feu@sdcc10.ucsd.edu (Anthony Minkoff) writes:

>In article <1992Dec12.225628.19322@cbnewsm.cb.att.com>,
>ortcm@cbnewsm.cb.att.com (thomas.mcguigan) writes:
>>pho 108, orl 107   11dec92
>>
>>pho (13- 4)      min  fgm fga 3m 3a ftm fta or tr  as pf st to bk tc ej ff  pts
>>pho totals       240  40  87   8 19  20 31  17 45  28 25 13 18  2  2  0  0  108
>>FG, 3P, FT averages:     .460   .421   .645       team rebs  8
>>
>>orl ( 8- 9)      min  fgm fga 3m 3a ftm fta or tr  as pf st to bk tc ej ff  pts
>>orl totals       240  41  79   1  7  24 33  11 43  28 28  8 18  9  1  0  0  107
>>FG, 3P, FT averages:     .519   .143   .727       team rebs  9
>
>This is interesting.  Rebounds were about even.  (Phoenix: 45, + 8
>team rebounds.  Orlando: 43, + 9 ream rebounds.)  Turnovers were
>exacly even.  Made shots: almost even.  FTs: almost even.  So how
>did Phoenix manage to get off 10% more shots than Orlando?

     I conjecture that the difference could be in the team rebounds:  these
were about even, but maybe Orlando's team rebounds were of the "miss-the-
first-free-throw-causing-your-team-to-get-credited-with-a-team-rebound-
even-though-THIS-type-of-team-rebound-doesn't-give-your-team-possession-of-
the-ball" variety.   In contrast, Phoenix's team rebounds may've been
due to balls out of bounds, loose ball fouls, etc. -- the kind of team
rebound where a team really does get a possession (and a chance for a
shot attempt) it wouldn't have otherwise gotten.
     Also, Orlando got a couple more free throws than Phoenix; this
evens up the shots attempted slightly.  
     Finally, some of Phoenix's free throws may've come on three-point 
plays, which also reduces the number of possessions Phoenix would've 
needed to get that number of shots off (where "shots" includes free 
throws as well as field goals). 

>This is a really bizarre boxscore.  From the stats, it doesn't look
>like Phoenix had a chance-- inferior FG%, inferior FT%, slightly
>fewer FTA, essentially even rebounding, even turnovers...  Well, I
>guess shooting 8-19 from three-point range can win you a game every
>now and then.

     Yeah, clearly that's the main factor:  an extra 8 points (whereas
Orlando only made one 3-pointer) makes a BIG difference in a game.
But, to follow up on the rebounding numbers I alluded to above, I
conjecture that Phoenix may've actually outrebounded Orlando in the
sense that really matters:  rebound percentages.  Again, we don't know what 
went on with those team rebounds, but the individual rebounding stats
tell us the following story:  Phoenix had an offensive rebounding percent of 
34.6% while Orlando grabbed only 28.2% of its available offensive rebounds.
(Which correspondingly means that Phoenix had a 71.8% defensive
rebounding percentage while Orlando only got 66.4%).  These rebound
percentages unfortunately aren't necessarily accurate, because they
leave out team rebounds.
     So Phoenix missed more shots than Orlando, but they may have made
up for it by grabbing more of their misses, giving themselves second
shots.  The total rebound numbers don't reveal this; we have to look
at the rebound percentages.  
     Conclusion:  NBA boxscores are still not airtight.  We need to 
know the number of free throws that came from 3-point plays (as well
as breakaway fouls and technicals); and we also need to know how many team 
rebounds were offensive, how many were defensive, and how many were of the 
wimpy missed-foul shot variety.  THEN we'd be able to truly know what
happened in the game and why and how one team managed to score more than
the other.
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  | W			   Mike Tamada
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