From: cpm@clyde.clearpoint.com (Chris Martel)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro
Subject: Re: Buffalo Bills
Date: 27 Jul 92 21:39:11 GMT
Reply-To: cpm@clyde.clearpoint.com
Distribution: usa
Organization: Clearpoint Research Corp, Hopkinton MA 01748

In article <1992Jul27.030033.8073@math.ucla.edu> rfedkiw@sepulveda.math.ucla.edu (Ronald Fedkiw) writes:


>WEEK 1   Rams @ Buf  WIN   1-0
>WEEK 2   Buf @ SF    LOSS  1-1
>WEEK 3   Ind @ Buf   WIN   2-1
>WEEK 4   Buf @ NE    WIN   3-1 (Pivotal game in early season)
>WEEK 5   Mia @ Buf   WIN   4-1
>WEEK 6   Buf @ Rdrs  LOSS  4-2
>WEEK 7   Buf Idle    BYE   4-2
>WEEK 8   Buf @ NYJ   WIN   5-2 (Big game)
>WEEK 9   NE @ Buf    WIN   6-2
>WEEK 10  Pitt @ Buf  WIN   7-2
>WEEK 11  Buf @ Mia   SPLIT 8-2  (or 7-3) (see week 16)
>WEEK 12  Atl @ Buf   WIN   9-2  (or 8-3)
>WEEK 13  Buf @ Ind   WIN   10-2 (or 9-3)
>WEEK 14  NYJ @ Buf   WIN   11-2 (or 10-3)
>WEEK 15  Den @ Buf   WIN   12-2 (or 11-3)
>WEEK 16  Buf @ NO    SPLIT 12-3          (see week 11)
>WEEK 17  Buf @ Hou   LOSS  12-4 (unless Buffalo NEEDS it: 13-3)

Do you really think they will go undefeated in their division? I predict
they go 5-3 in their division. Remember last year they split the season 
series with the pathetic Patriots in two close games. Didn't the Jets
come within an eyelash of victory over the Bills last year only to lose
it on a bad play at the end of the game. Both of these teams have improved 
from last year. Have the Bills?

>... of course they always win one they should lose and lose one
>they should win.

or lose two where they should have won two.

>If things were perfect, they could pick up one more early
>against SF or Raiders and/or pick up both games on the split.
>Of course, either of the above two would probably confirm a
>loss to Houston unless. Perfect season: 14-2
>If things don't go very well they could drop both games on
>the split and go 11-5.

They will be lucky to go 11-5.

>99% probability for playoffs
>75% probability to be in the AFC title game
>50% probability to be in Super Bowl
>25% probability to win Super Bowl

IMO,
75% probability for playoffs
40% probability to be in the AFC title game
20% probability to be in Super Bowl
10%  probability to win Super Bowl

>By the way I was in Las Vegas a few weeks ago
>and the odds on buffalo to win the AFC title were 2 to 1.
>This means Vegas gives them a 33% chance, but I gave them 50%.
>(sounds reasonable)

While you were in Veags did you put all your money on the Bills to go 
all the way :-)

>Watch out for the Raiders and Houston this year.
>They could be spoilers.
>Although Buffalo will probably never play them,
>	    ... KC and Denver could be playoff dangers.
>	   (but I doubt it)

>  Any other AFC fans (especially in the East),
>  have any courage to post preseason predictions????

Yes, I think I have the courage to make a prediction. Since your predictions
only deal with your beloved Bills, I predict they will not do as well this
year as the last two. IMHO, they have already peaked as a team. They had
their chance to win the superbowl the last two years, but failed. This will
have an effect on them this year. They will not come out with the same
intestity as the last two years. Have the Bills improved as a team from
last year? Hows Bruce Smith? Can Kelly have another great year? Have they
signed any of the veteran holdouts?


>(If your a NFC fan there is no need to respond to this,
>I'm conceding a 75% probability that your team will win,
>plus I'm giving you the SF game and the above SPLIT will
>probably go to NO, as opposed to Miami.
>As far as Rams and Atlanta games, you gotta be dreaming
>if your going to argue those)


>--
>Ron Fedkiw (rfedkiw@redwood.math.ucla.edu)

>A plan is made by someone who is sitting and thinking ...
>while others are doing.


Chris Martel
Clearpoint Resaerch
cpm@clyde.clearpoint.com
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro