From: salisbur@chilliwack.cs.washington.edu (Mike Salisbury)
Subject: Y.A.F.C.R.
Keywords: computer ranking
Organization: University of Washington, CS&E
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 92 22:28:42 GMT

Here comes yet another computer ranking (YAFCR).  I am almost embarassed
to release this due to my being associated with Washington.  However
these are the first results of the program after I spent quite a bit
of time coming up with a reasonable model and assigning what I think
are appropriate weights to everything.  

It basically works like this:  Each team is initially assigned a rating
of 100.00.  The next iteration assigns a new rating for each team by
averaging together the ratings of its opponents, each multiplied by a factor
which is determined by the team's performance in that game.  All of the
teams are then normalized back to an average of 100.00, and the next
iteration begins.  This continues until everything settles down.  Only
games against division I-A teams are included, and I may have missed a 
couple of games (since I had no record for three of the teams except for 
where they appeared in other teams' schedules.)

I must say I was surprised at the reasonability of the ratings in 
general, especially for my first shot.  Granted there are certainly
some outliers, but I don't think they're too far out of line.  The
algorithm really punishes weak schedules, since the highest multiplier
is currently 2.1.  This is the reason behind the low rankings of
undefeated Texas A&M and Colorado.  Also, for instance, Washington will 
be forced to have its rating lowered in each of the next two weeks
(playing Oregon and Pacific), with the possible exception of an Oregon 
blowout of over 49 points.

Conference average ratings follow the team ratings.  The ordering
seems in line with the other computer ratings posted with the exception
that the Big 10 is a bit higher in my ratings.

Of course I welcome any comments, preferably via email.  If you absolutely
must flame, flame away.


  Rank  Rating    Team
  -----------------------------------
     1	200.62 -- Washington (5-0)
     2	176.88 -- Florida St. (5-1)
     3	173.71 -- Michigan (4-0-1)
     4	173.67 -- Nebraska (3-1)
     5	166.28 -- Notre Dame (4-1-1)
     6	159.43 -- Stanford (5-1)
     7	156.30 -- Virginia (5-1)
     8	155.68 -- Miami (4-0)
     9	152.14 -- Kansas (4-1)
    10	145.03 -- USC (2-1-1)
    11	143.04 -- Tennessee (5-1)
    12	141.86 -- Boston College (4-0-1)
    13	140.64 -- California (3-2)
    14	139.86 -- Georgia (4-1)
    15	138.09 -- Arizona (2-2-1)
    16	134.22 -- Washington St. (4-0)
    17	132.20 -- Alabama (6-0)
    18	131.46 -- Mississippi St. (4-1)
    19	130.84 -- Texas A&M (5-0)
    20	129.80 -- Utah (4-1)
    21	127.24 -- Clemson (2-2)
    22	126.92 -- North Carolina St. (4-2)
    23	125.42 -- Colorado (5-0)
    24	123.80 -- Penn St. (5-1)
    25	120.72 -- UCLA (3-2)
    26	118.90 -- Wisconsin (3-2)
    27	117.29 -- Georgia Tech (3-1)
    28	116.21 -- Ohio St. (3-2)
    29	113.84 -- Auburn (3-2)
    30	113.62 -- North Carolina (3-2)
    31	113.15 -- West Virginia (3-0-2)
    32	112.72 -- Purdue (2-3)
    33	111.96 -- Mississippi (3-2)
    34	111.21 -- Oklahoma (3-2)
    35	111.17 -- Syracuse (4-1)
    36	111.16 -- LSU (1-5)
    37	110.59 -- Wake Forest (1-3)
    38	109.86 -- Memphis St. (2-3)
    39	109.01 -- San Diego St. (2-1-1)
    40	108.29 -- Indiana (3-2)
    41	107.95 -- Fresno St. (3-3)
    42	107.31 -- Houston (2-2)
    43	107.25 -- Florida (2-2)
    44	107.12 -- Illinois (3-2)
    45	105.28 -- Northern Illinois (1-2)
    46	 99.82 -- Maryland (1-5)
    47	 99.60 -- Oregon (3-3)
    48	 99.38 -- Iowa (2-4)
    49	 99.19 -- Arizona St. (2-3)
    50	 99.15 -- Vanderbilt (2-3)
    51	 99.15 -- Brigham Young (3-3)
    52	 98.40 -- Michigan St. (1-4)
    53	 97.47 -- Texas Tech (2-4)
    54	 96.98 -- Texas (2-2)
    55	 96.48 -- Northwestern (1-4)
    56	 95.67 -- Arkansas (2-3)
    57	 95.61 -- Southern Mississippi (3-3)
    58	 95.40 -- Hawaii (3-1)
    59	 94.34 -- Kentucky (3-2)
    60	 93.98 -- Baylor (3-3)
    61	 92.89 -- Oregon St. (1-4-1)
    62	 92.34 -- Duke (2-3)
    63	 91.73 -- San Jose St. (4-2)
    64	 91.72 -- Kansas St. (2-1)
    65	 90.39 -- Minnesota (1-4)
    66	 90.00 -- Central Michigan (3-3)
    67	 89.55 -- Colorado St. (2-3)
    68	 89.12 -- Rutgers (2-3)
    69	 87.80 -- Missouri (0-4)
    70	 86.41 -- Louisville (2-4)
    71	 85.66 -- Tulsa (1-4)
    72	 83.49 -- Iowa St. (2-2)
    73	 83.38 -- Bowling Green (4-2)
    74	 83.10 -- Toledo (3-2)
    75	 82.70 -- Miami, Ohio (3-2-1)
    76	 81.85 -- Pittsburgh (2-4)
    77	 81.13 -- Air Force (5-1)
    78	 79.96 -- Cincinnati (1-4)
    79	 78.47 -- Oklahoma St. (1-3)
    80	 78.02 -- Rice (1-3)
    81	 77.51 -- Army (0-1)
    82	 77.43 -- Louisiana Tech (3-3)
    83	 76.61 -- Wyoming (3-3)
    84	 75.58 -- Ball St. (3-3)
    85	 73.86 -- Virginia Tech (1-3)
    86	 69.49 -- Western Michigan (3-2-1)
    87	 69.41 -- Utah St. (1-4)
    88	 67.43 -- Akron (3-2)
    89	 66.48 -- Navy (0-5)
    90	 64.20 -- South Carolina (0-5)
    91	 63.48 -- East Carolina (2-3)
    92	 63.11 -- New Mexico St. (3-2)
    93	 62.73 -- Tulane (2-3)
    94	 61.93 -- New Mexico (1-5)
    95	 60.89 -- Southern Methodist (2-3)
    96	 56.84 -- Texas-El Paso (0-5)
    97	 56.54 -- TCU (1-3-1)
    98	 55.13 -- Nevada (2-2)
    99	 54.76 -- Temple (0-4)
   100	 54.53 -- Southwest Louisiana (0-4)
   101	 51.55 -- Cal Fullerton (0-4)
   102	 51.06 -- Kent (2-4)
   103	 50.82 -- Ohio (1-5)
   104	 48.43 -- Pacific U. (0-4)
   105	 48.15 -- UNLV (2-2)
   106	 47.18 -- East Michigan (0-6)
   107	 44.81 -- Arkansas St. (0-2)




Conference Average Ratings
--------------------------
Pac 10:  133.04
ACC:     124.56
Big 8:   113.21
Big 10:  112.76
SEC:     112.01
Big East:101.29
SWC:      90.25



-- Mike Salisbury
salisbur@cs.washington.edu




Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college