From: camden@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Rany Jazayerli)
Subject: Re: Gant for Deion!
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: The Johns Hopkins University - HCF
Distribution: na
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 1992 07:27:00 GMT

In article <40574@sdcc12.ucsd.edu>, demers@cs.ucsd.edu (David DeMers) writes...
> 
> 
>Recap: our league uses BA, SLG, R + RBI and SB - CS;
>ERA, ratio, 2 *  W - L and saves.
> 
>The perennial champ traded me
> 
>Gant		L5	17
>Berryhill	R4	 5
>Leibrandt	R3	 3
>Brian Barnes    R3	 1
>Butch Huskey   farm	 -	(1 for one year, 10 for next 2)
> 
>for
> 
>Deion Sanders   R4	 7
>Tommy Greene    L3	 6
>farm pick #1
>farm pick #5
>farm pick #12
> 
> 
>If Gant has 1992 seasons, this is a good deal for me; if he has 
>1990-1991 seasons, it's great!  The Series got me a bit worried 
>that Gant will become a platoon player, though.  However, I'm not 
>convinced Deion is for real, nor that he's not a football player...
>The draft picks could be pretty valuable - 1991's top picks 
>were Reggie Sanders & Eric Karros, now at $10 for 1993 & 1994.

	I'm not so sure that this trade was great for you.  I don't think
that Gant will become a platoon player, but at the same time I wouldn't be
surprised to see him limited to, say, 400-450 at-bats next year.  Furthermore,
your league devalues power a little by using slugging average instead of home
runs, which I think will hurt Gant and help Deion, because a large component
of slugging average _is_ batting average, and (at least last year) Deion hit
for a higher average than Gant.  Also, subtracting caught stealings hurts 
Gant some more, because he generally steals 30 bases a year or more, but his
success rate is not always great (it was good this year, 76%, but in the past
it's been in the 65-70% range).  And giving up those draft picks don't help you
much either.

	I'm not saying it's a bad trade, but it's a risky one, in that if
Deion plays baseball next year, and proves that this year wasn't a fluke, then
he'll be more valuable than Gant, IMHO.  You just better pray that Deion goes back
to his true calling and plays football only.

> 
>Barnes is marginal, though he should pitch & Mtl will be
>a winning club.  Leibrandt is scary, though even at 37 he
>seems to be solid & Atl is of course also a winning club.
>Berryhill & Huskey were just throwins, as was Greene.

	I think Barnes was a good pickup for you.  Assuming he doesn't get 
picked in expansion (i.e. he's still pitching for a team with a chance to win),
I'd put him on your staff and hope for 12-15 wins.  I really think he has the
arm to do it.  He's probably a better choice than Leibrandt, though as a Royals
fan who gave up on Charlie three years ago, I won't be surprised at all if he
continues to baffle hitters and fans alike and has another great season.

>I still have the #7 and #14 farm picks, along with Keith
>Mitchell, Decker, Pedro Martinez & Huskey in the system (max of 4
>allowed).  Probably won't keep Decker unless he's starting.
>Mitchell I still like, though he needs to have a nice year in
>Denver or something.

	You've got a pretty good farm system.  Mitchell in particular I like,
in that he's almost a certain expansion draft choice, and I see him as having
a chance to breakout in '93, or if not, then definitely by '94.  Pedro is also
a good guy to have on the farm (at least until Tummy Lasorda blows his arm 
out), but I would be a little leary of him simply because of the team he plays
for - he won't win that many games, and with that defense behind him, his ERA
and Ratio might not be that hot, either.  I'm not that high on Huskey - I think
he's too far away from the majors to be adequately judged at this point - and
I really don't know what to make of Decker.  He was a great hitting prospect
two years ago, but then stunk up the joint in the majors, and didn't do anything
great in AAA this year - .282, only 8 homers this year (and that's hitting in
Phoenix, a great place to hit).  I'd hope to replace either Huskey or Decker -
or both, if you're lucky - with your draft picks.

> 
>The commissioner feels like I gave up too much.  Of course,
>he's  trying to get me to trade him Pete Harnisch at 2, Luis
>Gonzalez at 5, Daryl Boston at 3 and Assenmacher at 7 for
>Will Clark at 45.  I like Will, but if he were tossed in,
>he might not go for 45 this year.  Bonds is at 43 and McGriff
>at 42.
> 

	If you made that trade, you ought to be thrown out of your league 'in
the best interests of baseball'.  NEVER trade 4 underpriced useful players for
one overpaid, overrated (well, maybe not, but he's certainly not underrated)
superstar.  Will Clark for 45 is insane.  I wouldn't pay more than about 36
dollars for him.  I really don't think he's a true power hitter, at least not
in the McGriff/Bonds category.  Plus, he has no speed.  Hold on to those guys,
especially Harnisch and Gonzalez.  Luis, in particular, could be a .280 hitter
with 25 homers soon.

>-- 
>Dave DeMers			 ddemers@UCSD   demers@cs.ucsd.edu
>Computer Science & Engineering	C-014		demers%cs@ucsd.bitnet
>UC San Diego					...!ucsd!cs!demers
>La Jolla, CA 92093-0114	(619) 534-0688, or -8187, FAX: (619) 534-7029


		Rany Jazayerli          camden@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu
		--------------
		David Howard for MVP!
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy