From: jjd@TEAK.CRAY.COM (Jeff Drummond)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: ARTIFICIAL TURF: EMBARRASSMENT TO THE GAME
Date: 27 Jul 92 21:26:36 GMT



>In article <1992Jul24.181113.21821@nntpd.lkg.dec.com> g_waugaman@nac.enet.dec.com (Glenn R. Waugaman) writes:
> 
>Well, apparently you haven't looked.  Boston practiced taking fly balls 
>against the backdrop before this past series, and it was duly noted in the 
>papers.  I seriously doubt that they're the only team ever to do this.  It 
>also didn't matter.
>
>Let's separate the issues.  The Twins have a fantastic ballclub, much 
>better than the Red Sox.  They'll probably take three of four from the Sox 
>in Fenway this weekend.  No one is making any excuses for the Sox' 
>continued poor play on the road.  But the simple fact from my experience
>watching televised games from the Metrodome is that it has the absolute
>worst backdrop in the major leagues, the key being that it very much
>favors the home team because it is so foreign to the experience of playing
>baseball anywhere else.  I've just seen too many lost balls and poor jumps 
>by fielders to believe otherwise.  And unlike a field with a bright sun or
>whatever other faulty analogy someone might want to draw, the roof does
>not present the same difficulty to both teams because it apparently *can 
>be* learned, over time. 

Well Glenn, your `experience' watching televised games from the
MetroMuffin does not coincide with my experience watching televised and
in-person games in the MetroMuffin.  The human mind and memory can be
very selective when it wants to be.  This is precisely why personal
observations of players, teams and ballparks can be so variable.  It's
even worse if we bring our preconceived notions to game.

I hope you saw the play on Sunday when Kirby Puckett hit a ball that
bounced in front of home plate and went over Wade Boggs' head?  When
that happens in the MetroMuffin, Usenet threads like this one get
started.  When it happens in Fenway, it's quickly forgotten.  And
before you say that it was a total fluke, a similar play happened in
the first game on Friday when a chopper in front of the plate almost
went over Boggs' head and he made an off-balance throw that ended up
in center field.

Again, human memory can be very selective.

>Other teams build their rosters to their ballpark.  The Twins can too; 
>that's fine.  But what exactly is it about the stadium and the makeup of 
>the Twins' lineup, though, that has caused the Twins to enjoy the largest
>home/road differential while in the Metrodome, by far, of all current
>teams in baseball,

Glenn, this is the second post where you've asserted that the Twins
have a home/road differential far in excess of any other team.  Can
you (or anyone else for that matter) post the numbers to prove or
disprove that?  I know that the Twins enjoy a home/away differential
that is above the League average, but is it the best in the League?
the best in Baseball?  And if so, is it _significantly_ better?

>                   beyond the advantage which any other current turf team
>or power team or speed team has ever enjoyed?  What's the scientific
>explanation, other than the roof/turf combination?  I don't see anything
>else about the park that's particularly unusual, and likewise for the
>Twins' players. 

One way to disprove an hypothesis is to assume it's true and see
what follows.  In an attempt to lay this myth to rest (fat chance),
let's assume that Mr. Waugaman is correct: let's say the Twins do
enjoy an `unnatural' advantage in the MetroMuffin that exceeds the
home-field advantage enjoyed by any other team, both quantitatively
and--perhaps--qualitatively.  For want of a better name, we'll call
it the "Waugaman MetroMuffin Voodoo Effect."  What must be its'
fundamental characteristics?

1) The Voodoo Effect must be biased in favor of the Twins.  It's not
   enough that balls bounce funny or are lost in the roof or whatever;
   these effects (whatever they may be) must somehow predominately
   benefit the Twins.  Note that we're not saying _what_ the Voodoo
   Effect is, or _how_ it benefits the Twins; we're only asserting
   that it _does_ exist and that it _does_ help the Twins.

2) The Voodoo Effect must be potent.  An occasional bad hop or bloop
   hit would be indistinguishable from random luck and would not
   stand out against the background of random factors which affects
   most, if not all, games.  I think we can put a lower bound on the
   Voodoo Effect by assuming that it must account for about 5-10
   extra home wins each year.  Much less than that and it's too hard
   to measure and really not worth worrying about anyway.  I think
   this range works well as an upper bound also, since if the Twins
   win _too many_ home games, someone might get suspicious.  After
   all, it's hardly in their best interests for the owners to allow
   the Twins such a blatant advantage.  I mean, they're not stupid
   (well, maybe they _are_ stupid, but they can't be _that_ stupid).

   Actually, the Twins home/away differential--compared to the League
   average--could provide upper and lower bounds on the Voodoo Effect;
   but I regret that I don't have those numbers handy.

3) The Voodoo Effect must be nontransferrable, at least to a degree.
   Each AL opponent of the Twins plays 6 or 7 games in the Dome per
   year.  This adds up to over 30 games after 5 years and over 60
   games after 10 years.  For the Voodoo Effect to remain potent,
   the Twins cannot afford to have significant numbers of AL players
   acquiring immunity (or turning it to their advantage).  On the
   other hand, the Twins draw their players from the same sources
   as other teams (trades and the minor leagues).  Their farm system
   plays in the same types of ballparks as do those of other Major
   League teams, so I'm assuming that the Voodoo Effect does not
   exist in Portland, Orlando, et al.  The Twins can hardly afford
   an extensive delay to install the Voodoo Effect in new players or
   existing players they've traded for.  Also, the Twins have traded
   players (who've played a lot of games in the MetroMuffin) to other
   teams in the AL.

   Ideally, the Twins would like to be able to enable the Voodoo
   Effect immediately when a player is called up or acquired and
   disable it immediately when he retires or is traded to another
   team.

There could be many "transmission vectors" for the Voodoo Effect that
might meet the above characteristics.  For example, the Twins could
be systematically stealing signs from opposing teams using hidden
camera(s) in center field.  Ex-Ranger's Manager Bobby Valentine once
suggested that the air conditioning fans in the MetroMuffin would
blow towards the outfield when the Twins were batting and would be
reversed (or turned off) when the opposing team came to bat.

Mr. Waugaman has proposed a "transmission vector" for the Voodoo
Effect: he has suggested that the turf and the roof, in particular,
are sufficiently different from conditions in other ballparks, and
that the Twins `learn' how to play in the Dome and that other teams
just don't have sufficient playing time in the Dome to adjust.  Mr.
Waugaman's transmission vector seems plausible with respect to the
first two characteristics outlined above (it can explain a Twins bias
with sufficient potency).  However, it fails the third characteristic.

Many AL veterans have played more games in the MetroMuffin than a
number of Twins rookies.  Ex-Twin Tom Brunansky has played more
games in the MetroMuffin outfield than the current Twins right
field platoon of Munoz and Larkin combined (Shane Mack too, for
that matter).  In 10+ years, Wade Boggs has played about as many
games at 3rd in the MetroMuffin as Scotty Leius.

On the other side of the coin, there has been a lot of turnover on
the Twins roster.  Of the 14 current position players on the roster
(excluding the pitchers), at least half of them played their first
game in the MetroMuffin as a Twin in the last year or so (Knoblauch,
Mack, Davis, Munoz, Leius, Reboulet, Webster, and Pagliarulo).  How
could the Twins have won the AL West last year (and be leading the
AL West currently this year) with so many new players who had little
prior experience playing in the MetroMuffin?  How could Knoblauch
walk onto the field last year and not only quickly master the Voodoo
Effect but win Rookie-of-the-Year in the process?  If Twins rookies
can quickly (and effectively) learn how to play in the MetroMuffin,
why do other teams (with veterans who've played many games here) not
learn?

Finally, if there were anything particularly hard to learn about
playing in the MetroMuffin, how could the Twins call up minor league
players (Reboulet, Bruett, Brown, Quinones, etc.) and put them in
the line-up THE SAME DAY?!?!  Is the Voodoo Effect nonexistent, or
are the Twins thumbing their noses at their special home-field
advantage???


Mr. Waugaman asks if there could be any other scientific [sic]
explanation for the Twins' home success, other than the roof/turf
combination.  I can think of a simple one, that probably applies in
this situation:

Suppose a team moved into a new ballpark 10 years ago, and that this
ballpark is a hitter's park, at least compared to most of the other
parks in the league.  Let us further suppose that team has had above-
average hitting for most of the 10 years they've been in their new
ballpark.  How would this team's home/away differential be expected
to compare with the League average over that 10-year period?

This hypothesis would explain a Twins home/away differential that was
above the League average.  It does not require any hidden cameras,
air conditioning fans, nor other bizarre Voodoo Effects.

>An honest question: is there any limit to how far the game can be
>distorted from the environs it's played in everywhere else, with a
>justification that it's the team's prerogative to build itself a "home
>field advantage"? 

I don't know.  If you think a distorted field is all that's necessary
to win a lot of games at home, then you should encourage your team to
distort its field.  However, I think any team doing that would shoot
itself in the foot.  Either the rest of the players in the League
would make the same adjustments as your own players, or else your own
players (particularly rookies and trades) would have a hard time
adjusting.

>---
>Glenn Waugaman
>Digital Equipment Corporation
>Littleton, MA
>g_waugaman@nac.enet.dec.com
>---

-Jeff    jjd@cray.com
--
"When the bullpen's empty, we know the worth of good pitching."
-Benjamin Franklin in "Poor Richard's Baseball Almanac"