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Date:         Tue, 10 Nov 1992 00:05:38 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Germany and ..., (#789)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
              christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu, 76701.103@compuserve.com

First, I have been battling with lungs AND writing quite a long
paper, one of four for this semester (which has involved reading all
of or portions of 29 books, some of which I still gamely trying to
wade through, to write a Honors paper on Roy Medvedev).

Secondly, though I've responded with a couple of short answers to
things on POLITICS, our mailer and other equipment here has been
acting a bit strange - locked me out for a few hours on Saturday,
most of Sunday, so I'm woefully behind on my mail.

So, please be patient with my slowness, it sure is not out of desire
that I have been silent!

Russia-

Boris Yeltsin arrived in London for two days of talks, and a
"friendship treaty's" signing, the first such agreement between Great
Britain and Russia (or its successor/predecessor state, the USSR)
since 1766.

Friday's RFE/RL report had stories warning the West NOT to react or
interfere with the Russian troop presence in the Baltics, while
offering conflicting remarks on the subject of presidential rules
(former Moscow Mayor Popov urging such rule, while Khasbulatov, the
Parliamentary leader, warning against it). Yeltsin reportedly stated
that the treatment of the Russian minority by the Baltics was on the
agenda in his talks with the British, and would also be placed before
the UN Security Council. Yeltsin was also reported as saying today
that he was resigned to the Congress of People's Deputies meeting on
1 December, and that he had no plans to institute Presidential rule.

Back home, he leaves a fascinating and somewhat confusing web of
rumor, report, and counter-report. As I listened to NPR this morning,
the tag line to a story out of Moscow was that Yeltsin had reached
(or would soon) a "deal" with Civic Union. Though no one is
specifically admitting it, a "reshuffle of the government" has been
mentioned on NPR, and BBC, and RFE/RL, and the latter stated today
that Civic Union has drawn up a list of replacement ministers. Even
Gaidar would be replaced, maybe by Vice-President Rutskoi himself.
So, I suspect Kozyrev, Burbulis and the other Ministers Civic Union
wants sacked will be, and the course of reform slowed.

Oddly enough, BBC interviewed Stankevich, Yeltsin's advisor, today,
who actually had the audacity to say that that it "was OK for Yeltsin
to be reasonably authoritarian" in furthering the goals of reform.
Sergei has grown quite facile with English - he skirted around the
slowing of reforms by saying that reforms could not be turned back
from while admitting that an "adjustment" might occur in the speed of
them. He assured BBC that Yeltsin was secure, but that there WAS this
little matter of cabinet "reshuffling" that would "probably" occur,
and that not everyone could be counted on to understand if Yeltsin
WERE to become "reasonably authoritarian," but that Yeltsin was
"committed to democratic principles."

Hogwash! I think the West is being prepared for a hard "right shift"
by the Yeltsin government, where Gaidar is perhaps kept as figurehead Prime
Minister while the key posts become the Ministries of Foreign Affairs
(where Stankevich is likely to be), Security and Information, plus
those industrial ministries controllable by a segment of the
military. I suspect that BEFORE the convening of the Congress of
People's Deputies three weeks from tomorrow, the "blood-letting" will
be done, the government's "deal" with Rutskoi and the Civic Union
crowd accomplished. Meanwhile, a Russian General, Victor Filatov, was
interviewed in Belgrade, RFE/RL reports, and he reportedly stated
that the National Salvation Front, what I call the Brown-Red
Alliance, holds the "solution" for Russia. (These folks want a
restoration of the USSR prior to the breakup, by force if necessary).

Two other small items. One, the fighting in Ossetia and Abkhaz
continues, with over 150 killed and 380 wounded in the Ossetian
fighting, including two policemen on 7 November. Tatarstan declared
itself a sovereign state and passed through its Parliament a new
constitution on 6 November - a move Russia is vehemently opposed to.

Germany-

The mass demonstration in Berlin to protest the recent anti-refugee
violence, attended by an estimated 350,000, was interrupted by
leftist egg and tomato throwing. THis kind of violence means the
radical thugs of both left and right in Germany are willing to go to
great lengths to get rid of the eastern European refugees that have
flocked to the country. Already, Gypsies have been sent back to
Romania. All these incidents only further blacken Germany's
reputation in Europe at a time when Germany does not need such
thuggery occurring.

In Berlin today, former Presidents Reagan and Gorbachev and current
Chancellor Kohl were made honorary citizens of Berlin for their role
in the beginning of the end of the Wall, three years ago today.
Grimly, this is also the 54th anniversay of Kristallnacht, the
disgraceful Nazi excesses against the Jews, hopefully days gone by
forever. Many in the world, however, watching the anti-tolerant
behavior emanating from Germany this year, are beginning to wonder if
Germany learned anything from the results that stemmed from that
first terrible destruction of Jews and Jewish property back there in
the grim flush of Nazism in 1938.

Bosnia-

Fighting in Bosnia has been sporadic - heavy near Mostar, relatively
quiet near Sarajevo, UN convoys turned back elsewhere, and now
reports (on NPR this morning) that "ethnic cleansing" of Moslems is
occurring within Serbia itself, and that perhaps as high as 80,000
Serbian Moslems are now refugees. Other Serbian-led fighting was
allegedly occurring throughout Bosnia over the weekend. The Serbs
deny this is occurring.  Electricity has reportedly ben restored in
Sarajevo as of last night, but the city is waterless, and several
reports of typhus and cholera (unconfirmed) in the city have been
bruited about in the news.


THe events in Russia continue to be grimly fascinating, Stankevich's
defense of a "reasonably authoritarian" Yeltsin incredibly chilling.
I suspect Gaidar, Kozyrev, Burbulis and others in the government will
be unemployed prior to 1 December. Look for more turbulence before
any stability occurs! VMS