From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 17:56:54 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 010, 01/10/93
10.7 FLUX=132    90-AVG=140        SSN=142      BKI=2464 3421  BAI=024
BGND-XRAY=B2.7     FLU1=1.6E+07  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2475 4311  PAI=028
  BOU-DEV=012,056,170,053,028,042,018,007   DEV-AVG=048 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.3   @ 1337UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 0305UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.5
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0500UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1325UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1825UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1000UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 0406UT   BOUTF-MIN=55403NT @ 1900UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+147NT@ 1851UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+001NT@ 1308UT  G7-AVG=+091,+026,+014
GOES6-MAX=P:+173NT@ 1559UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-016NT@ 1848UT  G6-AVG=+111,-005,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,125;SESC:130,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=3333 2223 2332 2223  27DAY-AP=007,006   27DAY-KP=2312 2221 3111 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7394 (S17W45) produced the
       only flare activity of note, a C6.3/SF at 10/1337UT. Region 7387
       (S22W49) and 7386 (S05W52) each had a single sub-faint flare
       as well.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7394 and 7398 (N08E16) have the best potential to
       produce C-class activity. Region 7394 holds a very small chance
       of an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. All stations saw a short period of
       major to severe storm levels from 10/0900 to 10/1200 UT.
       This may have been due to a coronal mass ejection produced by
       the long-decay flare with associated Type II and IV sweeps on
       the seventh.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 11 jan-13 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 jan-13 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/15
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions until approximately 07:00 UT when the geomagnetic
       disturbance noted above began to degrade propagation over the
       high and polar latitude paths.  Degradations rapidly migrated
       into the middle latitude night-sector regions where increased
       fading, multipathing and anomalous absorption was reported
       until about 18:00 UT.  Simultaneously, the high and polar
       latitudes reported very poor to near useless propagation.
       Thereafter, propagation improved over all regions and has since
       returned to near-normal.  Sporadic periods of enhanced activity
       will remain possible over the next 24 hours which may continue
       to occasionally degrade propagation.  For this reason, polar
       paths or paths passing through the auroral zones are not
       expected to be very stable until the disturbance causing these
       degradations subsides.  Near-normal propagation should return
       by 12 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S05W51  184  0170 CAO  04  004 BETA
7387  S22W49  182  0010 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7389  S19W32  165  0030 CAO  07  009 BETA
7391  S12E01  132  0030 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7394  S17W45  178  0070 DAO  10  013 BETA
7395  N13E20  113  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7396  S13W13  146  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7398  N08E16  117  0060 DSO  06  012 BETA
7399  N06E01  132  0010 BXO  02  006 BETA
7392  N14W58  191                    PLAGE
7393  S20W65  198                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 JANUARY TO 13 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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