From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:SOUTHERN AFRICA: FALL-OUT FOR REGION OVER ANGOLA CRISIS
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1992 04:39:59 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Title: SOUTHERN AFRICA: FALL-OUT FOR REGION OVER ANGOLA CRISIS


johannesburg, dec 4 (ips) -- the optimism that was evident in
the souther african region earlier this year over the hopes for
peace and stability are being drowned out in the din of renewed
fighting in angola and allegations of south african involvement.

as angola slides into all-out civil war between the mpla
government and unita rebels, the southern african region is
bracing itself for the fall-out.

''the (september) elections in angola (and the ceasefire
agreement in mozambique) were, of course, intended as steps in a
process which would move both these war-torn countries towards
peace'', says professor rob davies, co-director of the institute
for southern african studies, in a paper delivered this week.

''there are a number of scenarios for both the countries
concerned and for the southern africa region as a whole... the
way the processes unfolds in these countries will impact in
various ways on all countries of the region, including south
africa''.

davies was presenting his paper at a special seminar arranged
by the south african institute of international affairs in
cape town, thursday.

he outlines four possible scenarios for angola, three of them
violent, all of them with serious implications for the entire
subcontinent.

''the first of these ideas could perhraps be described as
'talk and fight'. under it either party -- but most likely unita
-- would, while proclaiming its desire for an eventual
negotiated settlement, simultaneously try to strengthen its hand
by a limited military offensive'', says davies.

''the aim of military action would, in this case, presumably
be to secure better terms in an eventual deal -- in unita's
case a stronger position in a power sharing government''.

davies says that if such a scenario materialised, there would
be grave consequences for mozambique and south africa.

''apart from the ever present danger of an escalation into
full-scale civil war it would create a most unfortunate
precedent in which the threat of and resort to force by election
losers was visibly seen to result in the extraction of further
political concessions''. (more/ips)


southern africa: fall-out (2)

the second scenario is renewed civil war. davies points out
that unita's ability to wage such a campaign depends ultimately
on external clandestine support, and here the reports of
continuing military flights from south africa into angola are
deeply disturbing.

''the third possible scenario, a variant of the second, would
emerge if there was a definitive breakdown of negotiations but
no significant external involvement...the outcome would be a
degeneration into a renamo-type or straightforward warlord
banditry'', says davies.

''this could mean angola taking the liberia or somalia route,
with the effective collapse of state power... this would be
bound to affect namibia and other neighbouring states. at the
very least there would be increased refugee movements and there
could well be cross-border violence and destabilisation''.

however there is a more optimistic possibility, even though
its chances are fast-waning. ''that would arise if the current
thrust towards negotiations succeeds and unita is prevailed upon
to accept that it must abide by the rules of the game of
multi-party elections''.

a second round of elections for the presidency would then be
held and unita would accept a role in a government of national
unity along lines that have already been drawn up.

davies stress that for this to happen -- before a free and
fair second round of presidential elections can take place --
there would have to be for rival armies to be demobilised and
incorporated into a single national army.

this is the most effective way to prevent a repeat of what
happened after round one of the elections in september which the
mpla government one but unita refused to accept the
internationally verified result.

''south africa's future will be influenced by which of these
scenarios emerge... the scenarios implying further armed
conflict will have several negative consequences for south
africa'', says davies.

''at very least, they will reinforce the image to the outside
world of southern africa as a zone of insecurity, with
consequences for investment... on the other hand, peace leading
to growth and development in angola (and mozambique) will
brighten the prospects for the region as a whole, not to mention
trade and investment prospects for south africa.

''the present government in pretoria has extensive influence,
not least because it has potential leverage with its former
proteges in unita. this can be used either to influence them in
the direction of abiding by the rules of the game of multi-
party democracy, or to support their efforts to extract partisan
concessions through the threat or resort to force'', davies
believes. (end/ips/ed/oa/92)
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