From: fester@island.COM (Mike Fester)
Subject: Re: Tom Kelly: Tiger Hater
Organization: /usr/local/rn/organization
Distribution: usa
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 16:43:35 GMT

In article <1992Jul20.192717.27690@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>In article <1992Jul20.155511.2436@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>>
>>Don't they have the highest OBP in the league? (Yes). Slugging? (Yes). If 
>>OBP and SLG make your team score better, then Baltimore MUST be the league's
>>best offensive team. And Milligan must a MAJOR factor in this, after all his
>>total OBP and SLG are higher than Cecil's.
>
>Mike, you *know* your logic is screwy on this one.  Do you believe
>that if the Orioles traded Milligan for Fielder that they would then
>be outscoring the Tigers?  Maybe you don't.  But your phrasing seems
>to imply just that.  (And I know.  You didn't *say* that.  You merely
>danced around it.)

I am pointing out that there is NOT a 1 to 1 correspondence between these
things that "mean more to the team" and team scoring (SLG and OBP). If they
mean so much, Baltimore shoulld be outscoring Minnesota AND Detroit; in fact
they trail by quite a few runs. And I am openly ridiculing the contention
that Milligan is a better hitter tahn Fielder.

>Out of curiosity, I thought I would compare the two lineups.  Neither
>team uses a fixed lineup, but the following lineups seem to be
>characteristic:
>
>Rate them on the following scales:
>	1		2		3		4		5
>OBP	-.300       .300-.330       .330-.360       .360-.390         .390+
>SLG	-.360       .360-.400       .400-.440       .440-.480         .480+
>
>
>Baltimore	OBP	SLG		OBP	SLG	Detroit
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>Anderson	4	5		5	2	Phillips
>Devereaux	2	4		5	5	Whitaker
>Ripken		3	2		3	4	Fryman
>Horn		3	4		2	4	Fielder
>Milligan	5	2		4	5	Tettleton
>Orsulak	3	2		2	1	Bergman
>Gomez		4	3		2	3	Carreon
>McLemore	2	1		2	1	Livingstone
>Tackett		3	5		1	1	Cuyler
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>Total:		29	28		26	26
>
>Note that I didn't somehow choose a stronger lineup for Detroit than
>for the Orioles.  Baltimore leads in total points in each category.

Right, and they also have more SBs and fewer Css.

>But *look* at the lineups.  Sure, Tettleton is hitting artificially
>low in the Tigers lineup.  I would rotate Tettleton, Fryman, and
>Fielder.  Or at least swap Tettleton and Fryman, if you think Fielder
>is going to continue to improve his numbers.  But the Orioles have
>their three best sluggers batting first, second, and *ninth*!  (Hoiles
>was batting seventh or eighth most of the time when healthy, so this
>isn't just Tackett.)  They have two of their best three OBPs batting
>fifth and seventh.  Is this intelligent??????  It is a wonder that
>Oates hasn't been fired yet, because as far as I can tell this is one
>of the *better* batting orders he has written out all year!

I'm not arguing with you. But it does seem like there's a lot more to
scoring than SLG and OBP on a team basis.

>I agree that Fielder is a better cleanup hitter than Milligan.  SO WHY
>IS MILLIGAN BATTING IN AN RBI SLOT?????  Just because he plays first
>base?  Dump Ripken to the lower part of the lineup until he starts
>hitting again.  Bat Milligan, Gomez, Anderson in the #1/#2/#3 slots.
>Bat Tackett/Hoiles and Horn #4/#5.  Bat Devo #6 where he belongs.
>Send Orsulak and McLemore *all* the way to the bottom of the lineup.

I agree with all these.

>Mike, you need to spend a little more time thinking and a little less
>time on knee-jerk reactions. 

It's no more knee-jerk than "Milligan helps his team more than Fielder helps
his because of his OBP and SLG".

> It is obvious why Baltimore isn't
>scoring as many runs as you would expect from their OBP and SLG.  You
>need only look.
>
>I suppose you could blame it on Milligan.  He is hitting for OBP, not
>power, after all.  But OBP is valuable too!  And it isn't like the
>Orioles have more OBP than they can use.  They simply are not using
>what they have efficiently.

Not blaming him for it, merely pointing out that the contribution on either
the individual or team basis doesn't hold up in this case, whereas Detroit
seems to do just fine. BTW, you are dancing very close to saying that a
#4 hitter has a "job" (I agree), when we are assured that his job is merely
to help his team win games and that job is better expressed in OBP and
SLG than anything else.

Mike
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