HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: prabhak@cs.umn.edu (Satya Prabhakar)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: So-called Experts and Timing ( Re: Time to invest in Japan Fund??)
Date: 11 Apr 92 07:10:21 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, CSci dept.


 (Rohit Thukral) writes:
>>Satya Prabhakar
>>
>>The cab driver in New York yesterday confided to a wealthy
>>couple en route to the Carnegie Hall, "If the movie Graduate is 
>>remade today and if Hoffman is an investment banker instead of a 
>>chemical engineer, he would be whispering, "Psst, buddy! Japan!""
>
>
>Last week's Barrons has a cover article on the Japanese market.
>They interviewed four money managers- two based in the US, one
>in Japan and one in Hong Kong. They are all pessimistic about
>Japanese stocks. According to them, the Nikkei could go as low as
>12,000 - 13,000. This morning I heard on the radio that the
>Nikkei fell to 17,125 yesterday. 

After reading about the stockmarkets for six years, I have developed
a strong cynicism for experts and their opinions. Nobody knows any better
than you do. The Solid Value commentary that appears periodically on
misc.invest and pats itself on the back for its 'phenomenal' prophetic
success says that the stocks are way overvalued. And then we have 
Ms. Elaine Garzarelli of Shearson, the prima donna of market callers,
who says that she is getting the best bullish signals ever from her
'hallowed' indicators. Take your pick!

In these days when there are more market callers than investors and
when 'budding' analysts offer free advice on internet, you are
lucky if you can keep your head above the waters. 

In my opinion, expert opinions and stock recommendations are pure bunk
and in the long run will cause you and me sever heartache and pain.

>Its amazing that the fall in the Nikkei average from its high
>of about 39,000 in late 1989 to 17,000 hasn't had an
>effect on US stocks. The Dow fell almost 62 points yesterday
>and was down 50 this morning, so perhaps it is finally
>being affected by the news in Japan.

One thing is sure though: the market is closer to its bottom
(assuming its is zero) than to its peak. If you believe in 'buy low
sell high', you should start putting in some money at periodic intervals.

>What does this mean for the individual investor? Should
>one start dollar cost averaging into japanse funds at a 
>time when the market is hitting new lows every day? Or
>should one wait on the sidelines for a turnaround?
>
>What do New York cab drivers and shoe-shine boys say?
>
Definitely! Dollar-cost average AT ALL TIMES! If it makes
you feel any better I started dollar-cost averaging into
T Rowe Price's Japan Fund when the Nikkei was at 19,000.
Each time it drops by 500 points, I invest an additional
amount (half of my original investment). In a way, I feel
good when Nikkei drops because it gives me another chance to buy
into Japan at a low price.

>Rohit

Satya Prabhakar (satya@ssdc.honeywell.com)
Xref: sparky misc.invest:6928 sci.econ:3835
From: suhre@meltami.dsd.trw.com (Maurice E. Suhre)
Newsgroups: misc.invest,sci.econ
Subject: Re: Chartism -- charlatans?
Date: 17 Apr 92 17:54:31 GMT
Organization: TRW, INC.

In article <1992Apr15.161227.29345@cs.umn.edu> prabhak@cs.umn.edu (Satya Prabhakar) writes:
 
>This is true! One experiment conducted in a northeastern university
>(I forgot the name) was designed as follows: They took 50+ chart
>patterns of stock movements from the past (1960-1975 I think) and
>concealed the stock names and the period. They then invited
>10 'technical analysis experts' to predict the stock movement for
>for each pattern for the following year. They compared the predictions 
>of the technicians with the actual stock prices for the predicted year.
>
>The result:
>
> 1. There was no consensus among the technicians
> 2. About 70% of their predictions were off by more than 20%.
> 3. A simple extrapolation (using regression,perhaps) came
>    closer to actual prices than 50% of the technicians.
>
>So much for technical analysis.

Looks to me like the preceeding sentence should read "so much for that
experiment".

To my way of thinking, this is an absurd experiment.  I can't imagine
any technician claiming that their methods will project one year into
the future.  (Or any fundamentalists, for that matter :-)

At the risk of repeating myself, here are some things that technical
analysis might be able to do (if indeed it can do anything at all :-)

1.  Look at a chart and categorize it as buy, sell, or not significant.
(Note that it is not necessary to have an opinion about *every* stock on
the NYSE.)

2.  Project likely price targets, both for long and short positions.

3.  Determine likely market turning points based on observations of
divergences.

The experiment referenced seems to have nothing to do with any of these
three items.

I think that this quote from Charles Rolo's book "Gaining on the Market",
p 117, makes a lot of sense.

    "There's much in technical analysis that smacks of abracadabra, but
    its underlying premises are ones that common sense can readily
    accept: the behavior of investors tends to repeat itself, so past
    trends or patterns in buying and selling can provide valuable clues
    to future price movements.  While the best policy for most amateur
    investors is to rely mainly on fundamentals in their choice of
    investments, an understanding of some of the tools of technical
    analysis can be of considerable help to them in deciding when to buy
    and when to sell."

I would emphasize the words "common sense", "clues", and "behaviour" 
in the above quotation.
-- 
Maurice Suhre
suhre@trwrb.dsd.trw.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: girisha@netcom.com (Girish Andalkar)
Subject: PCFN Online Discount Brokerage Question
Date: Tue, 07 Apr 92 15:40:23 GMT
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest) 
Distribution: usa
Keywords: Stocks, Broker, Online

Hello Friends,

I am considering joining PCFN Online Brokerage System offered
on PRODIGY network.  Their commissions look very attractive
and in addition you get a lot of other services for free.

I would like to get your opinion about the PCFN and experiences
(good and bad) about trading with them.  

Thanks in advance.

GIrish
From: ask@cbnews.cb.att.com (Arthur S. Kamlet)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: feasibility and costs and methods of transfer
Date: 15 Apr 92 22:57:28 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories,  Columbus, Ohio

In article <1992Apr15.010212.4882@athena.mit.edu> rlcarr@athena.mit.edu (Richard L. Carreiro) writes:
>Me and some friends would like to buy some shares of the Celtics
>(BOS: NYSE) to have as souvenirs.  Now, we could of course just
>each buy shares, but the commissions would be an insane percentage
>for such small orders.
>
>So, couyld we pool our money, have one person buy a block of shares,
>and then sell shares to the rest of us?  How would the transfer from
>him to us be done?  How is it handled for tax purposes?  Will transfer
>agents charge for such things?  How much?  When trhe person doing the
>initial buy takes delivery from his broker, what if he gets a single
>certificate for 50 shares --- how can he transfer say, only 20 shares
>and keep 30 for himself?  WIll transfer agents "split" a certificate?
>Or can he tell his broker what "denominations" to register the shares in 
>when he takes delivery?
>
>Or would it just be easier for us all to grit our teeth and pay the commissions?

The broker has no obligation to split the shares for you, and unless
you are an exceptionally great client, would probably decline to do
so.

The company and its transfer agent have some agreement, which they
might let you know about.  Write to the Corporate Secretary, or to
the Shareholders Department of the company and tell them what you
would like to do, and they should be able to give you advice.

Most companies are not pleased to have lots of small shareholders,
but they may handle small holders the same as large.  That is, if
a large shareholder can ask to have his 100,000 shares split
into 10 separate batches of 10,000 each, it just might be OK for
a small shareholder to have his 100 shares split into 10 batches of
10 shares each.

Of course, the company and the transfer agent could have an
agreement which imposes a cost for such transfers.  But even if they
do, I'll bet it is cheaper to do that than to buy a few shares many
times over and pay all the commissions.

To do this, you will need to send your certificate to the transfer
agent with your precise instructions: number of shares, Name,
address and social security number of each person to receive the
shares, and it is wise to include a signed W-9 form from each person
you wish to transfer to.  And you will need to have your signature
guaranteed on a stock power used to transfer the certificate.

In addition, keep careful records of your transfer to each person:
It might be best to buy stock yourself, and then sell individual
shares to the other folks, giving them a legal-looking bill of sale
and asking them to sign an acknowledgment of the sale for your
records.
-- 
Art Kamlet  a_s_kamlet@att.com  AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
Xref: sparky misc.invest:6599 rec.arts.disney:2342
From: ask@cbnews.cb.att.com (Arthur S. Kamlet)
Newsgroups: misc.invest,rec.arts.disney
Subject: Re: EuroDisney Stock
Date: 8 Apr 92 17:54:06 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories,  Columbus, Ohio

In article <1992Apr8.104524.61@sleepy.bmd.trw.com> schof@sleepy.bmd.trw.com writes:
>I am planning to purchase some EuroDisney stock that is traded on the Paris 
>Exchange.  Does anyone have any information about EuroDisney?  I have heard 
>that EuroDisney's hotels have been booked five years in advance. (That's kind 
>of hard to believe, especially when it's coming from a stock broker.)  If 
>EuroDisney takes off like DisneyLand and DisneyWorld and Disney in Japan, 
>the stock could be a real winner.  Last I heard it was trading around 26 in 
>US $.

Is this the result of your own research, or did you get a cold call
from a broker whose sole purpose in life is to make you rich?

See another article in this group on JWGant, a brokerage firm
pushing EuroDisney and who wants to make thousands of investors
rich.  I had a bad experience with them, and do not recommend JWGant
to anyone.  If EuroDisney is so great, many brokers will be
recommending them, and I'd advise going to a broker you know if you
are convinced it is a good buy.  I know nothing about the stock
itself, but why get involved with a stock trading on the Paris
exchange??  Are you prepared to fill out Foreign Tax credit
forms and sit out dollar fluctuations?

I'll repeat:  If you have done your own investigation and are
convinced it is a good buy, that's one thing.  If you were cold
called by a broker you don't know, and are relying on only what the
broker sent you, I would get other data, from other brokers, before
buying.
-- 
Art Kamlet  a_s_kamlet@att.com  AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
From: root@sickbay.austin.ibm.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: TRADER
Keywords: fear and greed
Date: 15 Apr 92 14:31:25 GMT
Organization: none

>I'm curious what you use for...
> - charts (papers or software)
> - brokers
> - trading system
>Eric Weaver  Sony AVTC  
 Only deal with a discount brokers (only opinion), have a bunch of money.
 (fact) - develop your own system (NEVER PAY FOR ONE). Noone will sell
 you a system that works well !! (fact) Even with a good system many
 people have difficulty following it well. (fact) - Computers are the best
 thing happend to the trading community. Further, only practice will teach
 you, paper trading is only short term learning (if that). 
 If you are serious, trade on the MidAmerica small contracts first.
 Now I am a contractor wich is more certain than trading. (but one day.....)
 - Andras (trader/contractor) (512)838-3237
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: klassen@sol.UVic.CA (Melvin Klassen)
Subject: Shares of GW Utilities take a sharp nosedive 
Organization: University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C. CANADA
Date: Tue, 7 Apr 92 22:07:49 GMT

A Canadian Press story (dated April 7) had the above headline, and started out:

  Toronto -- Shares of GW Utilities, majority-owned by Reichmann-held
  Olympia and York Developments, went into a nose-dive Monday,
  taking O and Y money with it.
    The stock fell $4.75 to $7.75 in early trading Monday on the
  Toronto Stock Exchange, but recovered slightly to close at $8.
  More than 45,000 shares were traded.
  ...
    Olympia and York owns about 35 million shares of GW Utilities.
  The price drop effectively lowered the value of O and Y's stock-
  holding to $280 million after Monday's close from about $437.5
  million last Friday -- a drop of 36 per [sic] cent.
 
Sounds terrible, right?

Well, the simple explanation, given in the Financial Post of Canada,
is that Monday was the ex-dividend date for GW Utilities.

It seems that the company paid out a special dividend of $4.50 per share.

It's perfectly reasonable that the share-price would fall by exactly 
the amount of the dividend!

Quote of the day: "The sky is falling!" -- Chicken Little.    :-)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: rot@mickie.id.macsch.com (Rohit Thukral)
Subject: Re: Time to invest in Japan Fund??
Organization: MacNeal-Schwendler Corp., Los Angeles
Distribution: na
Date: Thu, 9 Apr 92 20:44:27 GMT

In article <1992Apr7.210621.14396@gumby.dsd.trw.com> suhre@meltami.dsd.trw.com (Maurice E. Suhre) writes:
>The current issue of Barron's has an interview with four Japan analysts,
>or are investors in the Japanese market.  I've only read the first
>interview but this guy is *very* negative.  He has been short and is
>getting even shorter (as opposed to covering).
>
>I wouldn't touch a Japan Fund until I had seen some sign of a bottom,
>and I don't see any yet.
>
>For the original asker, look at Barron's.  Then adjust your hair back to
>its normal position :-)
>
>-- 
>Maurice Suhre
>suhre@trwrb.dsd.trw.com


Today's Wall St Journal has stories on pages A1 and C1 on the Japanese
stock market. Very interesting stuff. I haven't had the time to read
all of it yet, but the highlights seem to be the same as Barrons'
interviews:

    - Falling prices
    - Very low trading volume
    - Falling PE ratios
    - Banks fall the hardest

Rohit
-- 
#include <StdDisclaimer.h>
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: rsl@aplpy.jhuapl.edu (Russell S. Laderer)
Subject: Re: Tel-Air Communications
Organization: Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab
Date: Wed, 15 Apr 92 13:39:59 GMT

Heard this on the radio yesterday. (WBAL, 1090, Baltimore)
There is a legitimate FCC lottery being organized for wireless
cable rights.  The cost is $150 to enter.
Note: You could enter quite a few times for the cost some of these
scam artists are quoting.

Scott Laderer
From: satnews@cix.compulink.co.uk (Darren Ingram)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Online ?
Date: 8 Apr 92 07:14:00 GMT
Reply-To: Darren Ingram <satnews@cix.compulink.co.uk>
Organization: Gated to News by demon.co.uk

Hi... does anyone know about any Internet groups talking about trading room 
technology, market data feeds and the like? 
 
Rgds 
Darren 
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 
Darren Ingram/Satnews        : Standard disclaimer rules apply, even if I am 
Satnews@cix.compulink.co.uk  : very nasty towards you....  Drink plenty of 
Coventry, West Midlands, U.K.: traditional real ale and relax..... 
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: dong@oakhill.sps.mot.com (Don M. Gibson)
Subject: Re: Wanted: Daily Stock Quotes
Keywords: FOX quotes
Organization: Motorola Inc., Austin, Texas
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 1992 17:58:58 GMT

Anyone have any ideas on getting old stock data.  I am 
interested in getting a couple of years of data on 
a few stocks, volumes, and DJIA.  I am interested in
trying out a few theories on price projection.  Please
mail me directly.  Thank you. --Don
From: prabhak@cs.umn.edu (Satya Prabhakar)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Let us bet on Monsieur Marty Zweig (Re: Stocks newsletter. Netletter!)
Date: 15 Apr 92 17:22:52 GMT
Article-I.D.: cs.1992Apr15.172252.9028
Organization: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, CSci dept.

In article <1992Apr15.161504.22994@gumby.dsd.trw.com> suhre@meltami.dsd.trw.com (Maurice E. Suhre) writes:
>
>I would suggest reading Marty Zweig's book, Winning on Wall Street.  Pay
>careful attention to his market time model and the (back tested)
>results.  It will be difficult to not believe that there are trends in
>the markets that can be predicted.
>
>-- 
>Maurice Suhre
>suhre@trwrb.dsd.trw.com

Backtesting is one of the biggest cons used by those who peddle
stock market prediction theories. It is not that an independently
developed model somehow succeeds in predicting past market
movements. It is that the model was created in the first place
using past market data and is finetuned until it successfully
predicts all turns of the market.

The true test of a model is how it will fare in the future.

With sufficient information even you and I can come up with a 
model that would have predicted every single stock market
move in the last 20 years.

Barron's explains the 'backtesting' con in its recent edition
which also published Lipper Mutual Fund summary for the 1Q92.

Satya
From: tcashin@zeus.ladc.bull.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Investing in rental housing
Date: 8 Apr 92 21:51:57 GMT
Reply-To: Tim_Cashin@l66a.ladc.bull.com
Organization: Bull HN Information Systems Inc. Los Angeles Development Center


My SO and I have a home in a small, but popular, Rocky Mountain college
town where she was grew up and we're thinking about getting started in the
rental business there by buying a condo/townhouse. Say we have the following
scenario:
  
    $50,000 condo, $10,000 down @ 10% for 25 years ...
    break even on monthly rent
    depreciation @ $2000/year for 25 years
  
Lets also say we have sufficient income to cover payments should it  not be
rented and the down payment is part of well balanced portfolio of cash and
stock/bond mutual funds (thanks in part to m.i.). And our only debt is the
mortgage on the home mentioned above.
  
We see our possible options as being:
  
   1. Staying out of the rental business all together and investing elsewhere
   2. Using our cash as a down payment
   3. Borrowing the $10,000 as a home equity loan
       on the home we already own there for the down payment
  
I tend to lean toward #3 so we  keep our cash reserves up,we get an
additional interest deduction, and the home equity payment is affordable 
for us and could possibly be cover by rental income.
  
Anyone have suggestions or insights that can help us make a decision ?
Are there possibilities that we're not considering?
  
Thanks in advance
  
Tim
Tim_Cashin@l66a.ladc.bull.com
From: jprice@eecs.cs.pdx.edu (James Price)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Telephone Switch Newsletter
Date: 14 Apr 92 00:36:14 GMT
Article-I.D.: pdxgate.5323
Distribution: usa
Organization: Portland State University, Portland, OR

In article <1992Apr13.135621.6705@cbnewsh.cb.att.com> rc@cbnewsh.cb.att.com (richard.chan) writes:
>Does anyone have any information or experiences with this newsletter?
>They claimed to have a system which predicts the market with reasonable
>accuracy.
>
>Richard Chan

   Now why did I just chuckle?  :)

James
Net: jprice@jove.cs.pdx.edu       "Justice is incidental to law and order."
Globe: 45 31 25 N 122 40 30 W                          - J. Edgar Hoover
Unity not uniformity | NBC = GE   "Reading musses up my mind." - Henry Ford
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: United Way, were our money goes...
From: gary@cdthq.UUCP (Gary Heston)
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 92 18:56:55 CDT
Organization: Garys' Home for Obsolete Computers

dlw@odi.com (Dan Weinreb) writes:

> In article <1992Apr6.193521.4772@digi.lonestar.org> mdefelic@digi.lonestar.or
> 
>    There was an article in Saturday's (4-4-92) Dallas Morning News,
>    reporting ex-United Way's ousted president William Aramony lavish 
>    spending.
> 
> All this is true, and it's all deplorable, but this was only a very
> tiny fraction of your money.  Nobody who contributed to United Way
> chapters should feel that all his money was spent on limos.  And, in
> my opinion, none of this is a good reason to stop contributing to
> United Way in the future.  They still do excellent work and obviously
> they're going to be a lot more careful about this kind of thing in the
> future.

I'll do it for $200K if they cover expenses, or $300K and pay for
my own travel and expenses. :-)

Gary Heston, at home....
gary@cdthq.uucp
From: tucker@shiva.edsg.hac.com (George Tucker)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Hard Drive pounding
Date: 7 Apr 92 20:17:11 GMT
Reply-To: tucker@shiva.hac.com (George Tucker)
Distribution: usa
Organization: Hughes Aircraft Co., El Segundo, CA

In article <1992Apr7.155524.23107@cbnewsh.cb.att.com> hcy@cbnewsh.cb.att.com (hon-chi.yu) writes:
>far from their peak prices (except Micropolis).  Didn't a few years back
>there were people forcasting that Winchester disks would be replaced by
>optical disks?  It hasn't happen yet.

At least Maxtor and Quantum are also in the optical disk business.

	George Tucker        tucker@kali.hac.com
		Just say NO to incumbents.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: tkl@cbnews.cb.att.com (thomas.k.lybarger)
Subject: Cranston Group/Trust, anyone heard of them?
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: oh
Date: Wed, 8 Apr 1992 16:45:46 GMT

I have been getting calls from the Cranston Group, and investment broker
in Columbus, OH.  Anyone know of them or about them?  They were proposing
that I buy stock in a movie company, Film Group 2, located in Columbus
that specializes in low budget films (< $1M).  The person promised to
send me the prospectus but failed.  He then offered to deliver it to
my house, but didn't.

Any information is greatly appreciated.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
|   Tom Lybarger      AT&T Bell Laboratories  Columbus, Ohio   |
|   att!cbnmva!tkl                                             |
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
From: timlee@public.btr.com
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: FIRE THE BUM !!
Date: 11 Apr 92 04:34:42 GMT
Reply-To: timlee@btr.com (Timothy J. Lee)
Followup-To: misc.invest

root@sickbay.austin.ibm.com writes:
|>Every week in Barron's there are listings for long-term index options
|>(LSW for S&P500 Dec. 93, etc.).  My broker (Waterhouse) says they don't
|>exist.  Who is right?
|                Just say No to stockbrokers !!  :)
| From an ex-broker to you. Yes the LEAPS as they call them exist and
| the broker probably does not make enough commission on them. THEY LONG TERM!
| he wants you to do short term trading, with high commision. WAKE UP !!
| and start using a discount broker. I could not make a living as a broker
| bacause I WAS HONEST !

Waterhouse IS a discount broker.  Not all discount (or other) brokers
trade all kinds of securities.

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: dlw@odi.com (Dan Weinreb)
Subject: Re: Attitudes toward Wall Street changing
Reply-To: dlw@odi.com
Organization: Object Design, Inc.
Date: Mon, 6 Apr 92 19:58:31 GMT

In article <14796@optima.cs.arizona.edu> bakken@cs.arizona.edu (Dave Bakken) writes:

		    Of course, they rarely get sensational
   in a way that benefits conservatives

Nearly all the mass news media gave David Duke tremendous amounts of
free publicity, way out of proportion to his actual significance in
American life.  You can bet your last dollary that Duke benefitted
greatly from this, no matter what he himself might say about his
feelings about the media, and he knows it perfectly well.

The overall American impression that "welfare recipient" is
essentially synonymous with "black teenage unwed mother" certainly
didn't come from the direct perception of Americans, and didn't come
from any valid statistics; it comes from what people see on TV.

I agree with Mr. Frazier's point that all sides tend to complain about
"biased media coverage".  I also tend to think that, while press
coverage has a lot of faults, the press are used as a scapegoat more
than they deserve.