From: hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Bruce M Hasch)
Subject: Re: Blue Jays-Gillick
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Organization: The Johns Hopkins University - HCF
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Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 23:06:00 GMT

In article <1992Dec17.024640.21506@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca>, maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes...
>In <20335@ucdavis.ucdavis.edu> ez027993@dale.ucdavis.edu (Gary Throwing Hard Huckabay) writes:
> 
>>(Roger "Don't like my posting?  Call 1-800-TEQUILA!" Maynard) writes:
>>>Molitor won't play 90 games this year.
> 
>>If healthy to start the season, I'll take this bet.  If Molitor plays
>>less than 90, you win.  If 90 or more, I do.  What are the stakes, Rog?
> 
>I'll design a .sig and you use it throughout the LCS and WS. And vise versa.
>No profanity.  And what about this "healthy to start the season" nonsense?
>He either plays 90 or he doesn't.  (regular season of course but unless the
>Jays trade him I don't think he will have to worry about playoffs...)
> 
>>>Right on Pat!  Let's rebuild!  And when the jays go down the toilet this
>>>year all the stathead dorks in this group will be calling for Cito's head.
> 
>>Nothing quite like a deftly-inserted ad hominem.  Of course, you'll probably
>>back away from it now...  How about NAMING some names?  Who do you want
>>to call a dork?
> 
>I guess we will just have to wait for Valentine (or any of the other "prominent"
>posters to this group) to start blaming Cito for the Jay collapse.  And when he 
>does, I will call him a dork.  

	That's not the point!  If the only "measure" of managerial ability is
whether or not the team wins, then if the Jays do collapse next year, it MUST
be Cito's fault.  I'm not saying it is, but that seems to be the converse of
the logic you've given us in the past.  If the Blue Jays do collapse next year,
it will far more likely be a result of horrible starting pitching than
the managerial ability of Cito Gaston.  On the other hand, if the Jays lose
the AL East by, say, 1 game--and Gaston continues to do stuff like bat
Devon White leadoff, Carter fourth, misuse David Wells, etc. etc, then Gaston
COULD, and in fact, SHOULD, be blamed for the finish.  The manager is not 
going to make a difference in a blowout pennant race.  But when things are 
close, the fact that you've been using a screwed-up lineup which is costing
your team runs makes a damn big difference.  (Are you listening, Johnny Oates?)
	In other words, do you think anyone in this newsgroup is going
to blame Jimmy Leyland when the Pirates finish fifth or sixth next year?  I 
would think not--it's very obvious that the loss of Drabek and Bonds makes the
Pirates a much inferior team.  Jim Leyland is a good manager, but if he's got
a tightwad front office that's not willing to (or can't) spend the money to
keep front-line talent, you're not going to win.  Period.  If the Jays lose
next year, it will be because:

	1)  They replaced David Cone, a top-line pitcher, with Dave Stewart,
an old, overpriced veteran who will move from a great pitchers park to a decent
hitters park.
	2)  Molitor replaces Winfield (I think this is a wash, and in fact, 
could be beneficial--both are injury risks, IMHO)
	3)  They lost Henke, and while Tom did seem to be in a decline, this
leaves the closer role to Ward (OK), and the set-up role to ?? (Timlin??).  The
depth of the bullpen is reduced, and this could hurt the team.
	4)  Kelly Gruber is gone, and while I personally despise Gruber and am
glad to see him traded to the worst team in the AL, the Jays will now be forced
to play an unproven, albeit promising, youngster (Sprague), or another old
veteran (Coles).  
	5)  Morris is a year older.  So is Stewart.  Stottlemyre's still in 
their rotation.  Guzman's great, but will his arm hold out?

and possibly, just possibly...

	6)  Cito Gaston does not manage the Jays' talent as well as it could
be managed.  Notice that, if for some reason, the Jays win by 10 or lose by 10-
it doesn't make a difference.  If it's close, it will.  And if the Jays lose
by 1-3 games, Cito should shoulder some of the blame.  

	In other words, I won't blame Gaston if the Jays' starters have an ERA
of 4.50 next year.  Simply because managerial talent is secondary to player
talent does not mean that managerial ability can be dismissed as a factor
in team performance.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bruce 'Billy's Gone!!  Jacobs, you're next!!' Hasch    hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu
From: boell@hpcc01.corp.hp.com (Donald P Boell)
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1992 19:14:42 GMT
Subject: Bay Area baseball
Organization: the HP Corporate notes server