From: jmorriso@ee.ubc.ca (John Paul Morrison)
Subject: Re: Plan S -- Quebec separation
Organization: University of BC, Electrical Engineering
Date: Wed, 11 Nov 1992 00:21:30 GMT

In article <1992Nov10.230243.17979@access.usask.ca> (Gerry Gryschuk) writes:
>From article <schuck.721416339@sfu.ca>, by schuck@fraser.sfu.ca (Bruce Jonathan Schuck):
>>> (Gerry Gryschuk) writes:
>>>> Bruce Schuck (me) writes:
                   me writes (?)

>> If you read the news today you will see that the US is prepared to
>> start a trade war with all of Europe to stop subsidies. Quebec's
>> economy is subsidy based and the US would be very, very tough.
>> 
>> As for "a signature and a handshake" to allow Quebec into the FTA,
>> you are hoplessly naive.
>
>That is a simple euphamism. Sure it would take a little more but hardly
>the years you are talking about. Furthermore my whole point is that Quebec's
>economy would not be able to survive the subsidy level they currently
>enjoy. They're able to have the subsidies due to the transfer payments,
>however once those are removed their economy would be in dismal shape.
>In that scenario Quebec's only hope would be to conclude quick trade
>negotiations with the rest of North America, thus it is in Quebec's best
>interests to immediately ratify NAFTA as it pertains to them. I hardly
>believe the US,Mexico and Canada would have one set of rules for trade
>in NA and Quebec have another, that would be idiotic.
>

It would be idiotic. But it may be safe to assume that a seperate Quebec
(and even a seperate Canada) would be weaker, and in a more desperate
situation.

The USA would not shut out Quebec from a FTA because the USA could
drive a much harder bargain with Quebec, and would probably use seperation
as leverage to open up the FTA and get concessions from BOTH Quebec and Canada.

Schuck's assumption that the US would turn away QUebec is probably wrong.
I think the opposite is true, and that the US would try and pick up the
pieces on the rebound, in order to get a better deal for itself.
NO matter how amicable a divorce, it would create two competitors, and the
US would use this competition to get Quebec and Canada to "outbid" each other
to see who would give bigger consessions to the USA. If Quebec's economy
is as weakened as you suggest, the QUebec would be more eager to cut a deal,
and would probably not get as good a deal.

The only way this wouldn't happen is if:

1. Quebec does not secede
2. even if Quebec does secede, Mexico, Canada, and Quebec agree to hold their
   ground together
3. A US president (probably Rebuplican) decides to take a long term foreign
   policy view, and deliberately avoids taking advantage of breakup, in
   order to promote long term stability.


>> 
>>>Sure and their industrial base is probably still the largest in Canada. If
>>>they decide to seperate it would probably be to join the US since most of
>>>their trading links are below the border it would be practically automatic.
>> 
>> Why would the US want them? They would just be another rust belt state
>> with high unemployment and a massive deficit.
>

Manifest destiny?

>Note I live in one of those "have-not" provinces, considering the way
>I was brought up it really grates on me that Saskatchewan accepts billions
>of dollars in transfer payments that our production level doesn't deserve.
>
well, at leat you still have a Western work ethic.

>In Saskatchewan we have essentially produced hundreds of thousands of
>welfare recipients who choose to call themselves farmers.

how can we convince people in "have not" provinces to have more self
reliance, and pull themselves up by themselves, instead of relying
on other provinces giving money? How can Bourassa accept billions
that they don't morally deserve, when they have Bombardier, and Lavalin
and dozens of huge industries that are either profitable, or can be made
profitable with a good shake up? AS if Bourrassa WOULD turn down billions.
>
>Again though this is way off the topic.
>--
>Gerald Gryschuk            Saskatoon,Saskatchewan = a place with 9 months
>gerry@sask.usask.ca           of hockey and 3 months of poor skating.
>Go Habs!!!		              (The Bum rules!!!)


-- 
__________________________________________________________________________
 John Paul Morrison                     |  
 University of British Columbia, Canada |  
 Electrical Engineering                 |   .sig file without a cause
 jmorriso@ee.ubc.ca              VE7JPM |  
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Newsgroups: can.politics