From: "IAAYROS@MVS.oac.ucla.edu" <IAAYROS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU>
Subject:      Factors to consider before buying Deng's predition on HK
Reply-To: "IAAYROS@MVS.oac.ucla.edu" <IAAYROS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU>
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1992 11:04:00 GMT
Comments: To: china-nt <china-nt@UGA.CC.UGA.EDU>

William Deng's key point is:

    Pushing more democracy in HK must lead to a majority vote for HK's
    INDEPENDENCE and thus armed crack down by the "totalitarian" CG.

Not necessaryily.

1. HK residents have very strong relization that they are Chinese and HK
is a part of China; no ssecession idea will be popular even if any
extremists may get some hint from Deng' post and then try to advocate
independence by simple majority vote and defend it by armed forece;

2. After the bloody TAM event 3.5 years ago, HK people are much muture
in strategy and partical approach in promoting democracy because they have
seen how brutal Li Peng's government is willing to go.  They might explore
the limit (not honesty) of Deng Xiaopin's "one country, two systems", but
are no longer naive as mainland students and interlectuals when hunger
striking in June 1989;

3. HK's democraticy movement has stronger organization and leadership from
a varity of walks of people than Spring 89 on TAM Square. Its core members
have not only high popularity but also STABLE support from pro-democratic
residents.  It is "ridiculous" to imagine that they would call for a
secession vote as their ultimate strategy to secure a COMPLETE democracy.
They know how to squeez at many gray areas to obtain as much as possible
without a bloody end;

4. HK has been a business area for a long time. Business people are smart,
practical and very good at negotiation.  By doing business with it, they
established a lot connection with CG and know what's their best interest.
Some of them have already started forming political organizations to
balance the por-democracy alliance's influence.  If they had not relized
that "democrating HK will bring about nothing but disasters", then William
Deng's article certainly has warned them and they will work more actively
to prevent a simple majorit vote of independence, if any.

The situation described by William Deng is horrifying but nothing
realistic.  HK is not Bosnian.  They have different culture, history,
economy, worldwide status, and most importaintly, ethnic relation with the
entity they belong(ed) to.  A secession story of HK really requires some
creativity.

I have deep confidence for HK students, residents, their leaders, and HK's
role in China's future.  Just like Taiwain, HK has provided and will
provide much unique experience for China's mordernizatoin, not only
economically, but also politically.  Without many LOCAL activities, one
cannot expect democracy will come to "*the WHOLE China*".

Kevin, not majored in economy and political sciences


-------------------------TEXT-OF-FORWARDED-MAIL--------------------------------

Date:         Thu, 12 Nov 1992 18:48:23 -0700
From:         XIAOJIAN@CCIT.ARIZONA.EDU
Subject:      Comment on AHKCUS and IFCSS's posts: A political economy approach

You all may have seen the post on China-nt by AHKCUS, the IFCSS for HONG
KONG students, and then a open letter by IFCSS. I don't
agree to their views.

A democratic local government
under a totalitarian central government is just impossible. The only
result after 1997 for a democratized HK is either brutal crash such
as that in 89 movement or a civil war if HK is democratized and arm itself
to protect the democracy. Yes, all people with good-will
should support the idea of democratizing HK. But in the history too
many tragedies were driven by good-wills.

If HK should become a democracy, its government will follow the preference
of the median voter, assuming simple majority rule is applied. Then a
democratized HK will inevitably go for independence because the
median voter will prefer independence in order to secure democracy which s/he
prefers. The terminal result will be bloody crackdown which nobody
wants to see.

From almost all aspects HK doesn't look like a part of China. So it's
well understandable for the median voter to prefer independence.
But unfortunately, HK *is* a part of China, and in the forseeable
future, an independent HK just has no chance to be tolerated by CG.

The process to democratize HK has very negative effect on HK's economy.
Just see how strong the HK businessmen society protest the governor's
move (reported in CND). When the move worried businessmen, the claim by
IFCSS that the move will promote prosperity is just ridiculous.

Only after the whole China is democratized, a democratized HK is possible
and sustainable. So, please work on democratizing *the whole China* first.
While China is still a totalitarian country, democrating HK will bring
about nothing but disasters. If you don't buy it, just let us wait and
see.

I understand that most HK people desire more democracy. But they are not
aware of the bad consequence of what they are doing, just as those Bosnian
people could not forsee their today's tragic fate when they voted for
independence not a long time ago.

Comments welcome, esp. those from my colleagues in economics and political
science.


William Deng
Newsgroups: talk.politics.china