From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:SOUTHERN AFRICA: PRETORIA UNDER PRESSURE TO WIN IN ANGOLA/RELATE
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1992 04:41:12 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Title: SOUTHERN AFRICA: PRETORIA UNDER PRESSURE TO WIN IN ANGOLA/RELATE


/attn editors: please relate the following to 'angola:
resupplying rebels, pretoria returns to its bad old ways' moved
from johannesburg at 04:55 gmt/

an inter press service feature

by godfrey karoro

harare, dec 4 (ips) -- a military takeover by the rebel union for
the total liberation of angola (unita) of the beleagured country
would be a much needed political victory for the south african
defence forces (sadf).

to achieve this objective, sadf's fighter and transport planes
have in the past two months been violating the airspace of
namibia, botswana, zambia and zimbabwe in clandestine airlifts
of military equipment to beef up unita's capability to take on
the legitimate luanda government following september's
elections.

after waging a bitter 17-years-long war, unita leader jonas
savimbi refused to accept the results of the parliamentary and
presidential elections won by the ruling popular movement for
the liberation of angola (mpla) led by president jose eduardo
dos santos.

the violations coincide with massive build ups of heavily
armed unita forces in northern angola, believed to be marching
towards luanda for a final onslaught on the capital city.

southern african countries have lodged official protests to
the prtoria government, but are yet to receive responses.

political and military analysts here believe that the south
african army is in need of either a political or military victory
in southern africa before they can terminate their military
games.

''south africa was defeated in all missions they undertook in
southern africa since 1975'', a southern african political
researcher, who did not want to be identified, told ips friday.

the pretoria government, accused over the years for
destabilising the sub-region, failed to impose puppet governments
in mozambique, zimbabwe and in namibia and was, despite its
military might, defeated twice in angola at the battle of cuito
cuanavale which led to its withdrawl, and now at the ballot box.

''everything they touched in southern africa went wrong for
the south africans'', the researcher said. (more/ips)


southern africa: pretoria (2)

retired sadf col jan breytenbach confirmed the premiss in an
interview with the johannesburg 'weekly mail' newspaper this
week when he admitted that south africa's participation in the
angolan war was ''unnecessary because we achieved nothing''.

''we lost in south west (namibia), we lost in cuito cuanavale
and we did not win in south africa'', the former sadf commander
said.

being militarily weak, southern african leaders can only
prevent the sadf from achieving its goal of imposing a unita
government in luanda by relying on diplomatic manoevres.

a university of zimbabwe lecturer in strategic and military
studies equates pretoria's behaviour to israel's in the middle
east.

''they are able to get away with violations because of their
superior equipment'', dr jonathan newell told ips. ''southern
african leaders' other option would be to shoot down the
violating planes but there is not much chance for that''.

''if leaders continue to protest, it would be difficult for
south africa to violate their airspace'', added newell.

zimbabwe's president robert mugabe has officialy complained
to the organistion of african unity (oau), which has stationed a
diplomat in south africa to monitor the situation, the
commonwealth and the united nations.

angola, on its part, has appealed to mugabe, who chairs the
frontline states -- angola, botswana, mozambique, tanzania,
zambia and zimbabwe -- to convene an urgent meeting to discuss
the deteriorating angolan situation next week.

according to the lecturer, south africa took a big gamble by
rushing military equipment to unita bases, although it hoped to
cease the operations before being discovered.

the south africans hoped that by that time, the rebel group
would have received enough armaments, gained ground, and be in
position to assault luanda.

according to diplomatic observers, unita's aim to get control
over the capital was planned to take place by jan. 20 before u.s.
president-elect bill clinton takes office and recognises the
luanda government as expected.

but ''there is a lot of pressure on south africa to stop
interfering in angolan affairs and instead solve its domestic
problems'', said the researcher. (end/ips/gk/oa/92)
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