From: ariel@world.std.com (Robert L Ullmann)
Newsgroups: comp.dcom.telecom
Subject: About That TPC Monopoly ...
Date: 24 Jul 92 02:01:40 GMT
Organization: The World in Boston
X-Submissions-To: telecom@eecs.nwu.edu
X-Administrivia-To: telecom-request@eecs.nwu.edu
X-Telecom-Digest: Volume 12, Issue 581, Message 6 of 12

Hi,

About all the discussion of 'phone companies being  allowed into video
delivery, and  already being allowed  into information  providing, and
demonstrably using their clout to squelch competition, and so on ...

At the IETF last week I said to several people, to much amusement:

	Voice is An Application Layer Protocol

which was especially poignant in light of the successful IETF
audiocast on the Internet.

I will make a prediction on the record: 

	Voice (and Video) on Internet packet technology is going
	to utterly destroy the competitiveness of *all* of TPC's
	current technology in the next 5 years.

Unless they get their packet switching act together, they will find
that all they are doing is leasing circuits to people running TCP/IP
(v4 or v7 :-) with all the interesting stuff being run on top.

ISDN packet mode might be useful if they actually provide it, ISDN
circuit mode will be useful in some cases. (In both modes, the use is
to carry internet packets.) But if they don't get it right, including
pricing it at something comparable to real cost, they will be bypassed
by *everyone*.

All I need is bandwidth to my local Internet service provider; once I
get there, it is all packets. I don't have to pay $2.58 for Call
Waiting, $2.57 for Forwarding, $4.12 for 30-Number Speed Calling (all
real NYNEX rates, from Boston directory, Sept 91). I can have any
feature I can program into my PC, or get it for the cost of a
shareware program. (call waiting; 42-way calling; calling-address-or-
whatever-I-damn-please-dependent forwarding; as many speed codes as I
care to remember ... :-)

	During the IETF audiocast (which was apparently 'on' 24 hours
	a day, but only used for presentations during daytime in
	Boston's time zone), one observer noted a couple of people,
	both in Australia, using the "Internet Citizen's Band" to
	discuss some unrelated issue. When asked why they were using
	it: "It's cheaper than a 'phone call." And so it is.

	And there was a videocast too.

I pay NYNEX about $24.00 a month for a copper loop that can do 14.4
full duplex if I push it. Boston Cablevision delivers 106 channels for
$60.00 month (counting, but not paying for, some PPV). That is what?
Maybe 20GB? More?

Who do you think I am going to buy packets from? With eight orders of
magnitude difference? (NYNEX is about US$1.5/KByte/sec/month, the
cable company about US$0.0000003/Kbyte/sec/month) Yes, I understand
the difference between the value-added of the switching; but the cable
company could (for example) provide a complete usenet feed with a
vanishingly small fraction of its bandwidth; most processed
information flow (measured in receiver*time) is _inward_, i.e. from 1
person to N people for _very_ large values of N.

In short:

	Once the available bandwidth is converted to unregulated
	packets (Democratic Packets :-), all regulated service
	providers will either compete or get blown away.

	And this is happening NOW, and will reach critical mass
	very quickly.

Seen a vinyl record lately? Tried to buy one? Um, and did you *have* a
CD player ten years ago? You probably have a PC now ...

	Once the technology to go digital/packet is available, 
	it is inevitable, and imperative, and immediate.


With My Best Regards for all TELECOM readers,

Robert Ullmann
home/evenings		Ariel@World.STD.COM	+1 617 247 7959
work/weekday/daytime	Ariel@Process.COM	+1 508 879 6994 x226