From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 04:09:47 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              29 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 273, 09/29/92
10.7 FLUX=117.3  90-AVG=124        SSN=106      BKI=4766 5334  BAI=054
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=2.2E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=4776 6334  PAI=067
  BOU-DEV=050,273,139,152,109,021,031,047   DEV-AVG=102 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 1654UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 1641UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0025UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 1515UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0035UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2020UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55462NT @ 0541UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1226UT  BOUTF-AVG=55397NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+157NT@ 0733UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-060NT@ 0836UT  G7-AVG=+077,+062,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+142NT@ 1911UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-047NT@ 1206UT  G6-AVG=+085,-019,+041
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,125;SESC:115,115,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,025/045,030,025
    KFCST=3333 3445 4455 4443  27DAY-AP=014,053   27DAY-KP=2113 3443 3676 5444
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MAJSTRM
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low.  The largest flare of the day was an impulsive
class C1.1/1N flare at 16:54 UT from Region 7296 (N06E28).  Several other
subflares were observed, but none reached C-class levels.

     Region 7293 (S07W15) continues to possess a weak delta configuration in
the trailer spots, but stabilized in growth.

     Also of interest today was the eruption of a large filament early in the
UT day from the southeast quadrant.  The filament measured approximately 40
degrees in length.  The eruption was not associated with any enhanced x-rays
or radio activity.

     New Regions 7298 (N16E61) and 7299 (N12E75) were numbered today.

     Solar activity should continue low to very low.  C-class flare activity
is possible in Regions 7293 and 7296.

     The geomagnetic field became disturbed early in the UT day.  Major to
severe geomagnetic storming commenced near 03:00 UT and lasted through to
approximately 18:00 UT.  The source of this activity is not clear at the
present time, but may have been related to either filament disappearances
observed on 24 September or an isolated transequatorial coronal hole.  The
field is expected to continue at active to sporadically minor storm levels
over the next 24 to 72 hours.

     A strong auroral storm was observed over North America during the local
evening and early morning hours of 28/29 September.  Activity was officially
observed as far south as Ottumwa, Iowa (41 N geographic latitude).
Significant expansion of the auroral oval was observed in conjunction with
this activity.  Migration of the equatorward edge of the auroral oval to 55
degrees north geomagnetic latitude was confirmed near the midnight sector.
Activity diminished and stabilized by the end of the UT day.  However,
periods of substorm activity are expected to produce visible aurorae over the
next 72 hours.  Some of these substorms could produce activity visible from
the northern tier of the U.S. states and parts of northern Europe.  The
warning for middle latitude auroral activity has been downgraded to a watch.
Likewise, the low latitude auroral activity watch has been cancelled.

     HF propagation conditions became seriously degraded over the northern
hemisphere from 03:00 UT to approximately 18:00 UT.  Some improvements,
particularly over the middle latitude paths, were observed thereafter.  Polar
and high latitude signal paths are expected to continue well below normal
through the next 72 hours.  Occasional degradation can also be expected over
the middle latitude paths during substorm activity.  MUFs are expected to
remain depressed by between 20 and 45 percent from the polar to middle
latitude paths during the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7289  S10W53  103  0130 CAO  04  005 BETA
7293  S07W15  065  0110 EAO  12  012 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7294  S11E04  046  0280 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7295  N14E27  023  0150 CSO  06  005 BETA
7296  N06E28  022  0110 DAO  05  009 BETA
7298  N16E62  348  0020 BXO  05  003 BETA
7299  N12E75  335  0030 HRX  02  001 ALPHA
7291  S06W84  134                    PLAGE
7292  N20W17  067                    PLAGE
7297  S16W31  081                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 SEPTEMBER TO 02 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7282 S18   294


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1329 1330 1330                          190
 1519 1519 1519                          110
 1910 1910 1910                         1900


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
56   N05W03 S23W17 N00W36 N05W03  079  ISO   POS   025 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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