From: niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma)
Subject: Re: Cito Manages reasonable in Game #1
Organization: Math, Stats & CS, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
Distribution: na
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 1992 15:19:26 GMT

In <1992Oct10.123222.9050@access.usask.ca> (Gerry Gryschuk) writes:

>From article <Bvv69E.I0u@cs.dal.ca>, by niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma):
>> In <7086@transfer.stratus.com> dswartz@sw.stratus.com (Dan Swartzendruber) writes:
>> 
>>>Yeah, right.  Letting Morris start the 9th wasn't total idiocy.  Uh-huh.
>>>Just out of curiousity, what is someone like Duane Ward *for* if not to
>>>close down the other team?  Especially in a home game.
>> 
>>   Ok, then when would YOU have taken out Jack Morris. Prettty easy to say that
>                                                        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>> it's dumb AFTER Baines was rounding the bases. Especially after Morris had
>  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

>Not picking on you Gord, several people have made this statement, I just want
>to know how many people sit at their terminals watching the game and comment
>while its being played? I don't, but I wanted Ward/Eichorn to come in at
>the start of the ninth BEFORE Morris gave up the homerun. If Morris had not
>given up the homerun I would still feel the same.

  OK this I can agree on. The reason I was so aggressive in my earlier post was
that the previous poster (Dan Swartzendruber) had made it sound like an obvious
error in judgement to leave Morris in. I think that it's clearly DEBATEABLE
and not a really easy decision to take out Morris after he had pitched well
in the previous 6 innings; not just well but very well. Bringing in Ward
usually works but we don't always know what Ward will bring in the ballpark.
Whereas we know that Jack had been pitching effectively. We also don't know
the effect that Ward would have had on the game either; also I'd like to point
out that Cito has used this strategy (leave Morris in for the win) this year
and it has been effective (although I'm not positive it's the right thing to do)

>> pitched 6 straight consecutive scoreless innings. Remember Tom Kelly in the
>> 7th game of the World Series last year. Some idiot he was leaving Jack Morris
>> in. 

>1) At that time Morris had pitched a scoreless game. Kelly had less reason to
>suspect he would give up a run then Cito since Morris had already given up 3.

   But those three runs were given up six innings ago. I don't think this is 
really relevant. I also remember that Morris got out of a huge jam in the
late innings of the 7th game last year; something like bases loaded no out.
This is more of an indication that he needed to be taken out, IMO.       

>2) Disregarding the Eck, one of the Jays advantages is their bullpen(IMO at
>least) by not using it Cito is giving away this advantage. Considering that
>the same pitchers are going to pitch again on three days rest it becomes
>down right stupid not to use your bullpen that late in the game. Kelly didn't
>have to worry about Morris pitching again until the year after.

   I agree with you on this point. I think Cito might have been too concerned
about that one specific game and it may have cost the Jays (letting Morris go
too long) in game 4.

>>   So when would you have taken out Cone last night eh? After the fifth probably.
>> Then you could have drained the entire bullpen and wasted a brilliant 
>> performance by Cone. 

>Actually I would have pulled him after the 8th(see the second sentence of
>number 2 above for my reason). In the 5th he hadn't given up a run yet and he
>was pitching very well. That both the runners were in scoring position was due
>only to one bad pitch and Cone's normal delivery. In fact it wasn't even
>because of the bad pitch, the runners would have been safe even without the
>wild pitch. Thus there was no reason to suspect that Cone couldn't get himself
>out of the jam.

   Actually I was biting my nails through the whole thing. I would have taken
him out sooner (maybe in the seventh or in the eighth). I remember thinking
that maybe they should pull him but after Sierra's three bagger the decision
was pretty obvious.

>That Cito didn't pull Cone until the ninth doesn't bother me that much except
>again for the fact that Cone will pitch again on three days rest. It almost
>seems to me that Cito is trying to let one of his starting pitchers get ALCS
>MVP before they've won it. If this is the case its rather an arrogant attitude.



>> 						Gord Niguma
>> 						(fav player: John Olerud)
>                                                             ^^^^^^^^^^^
>That should be "Sweet Swinging" Johnny Olerud.

						Gord Niguma
						(fav player: guy who got
						1 HR and 3 singles last night)

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