From: drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David Robert Walker)
Subject: Re: Jimmy Jones
Organization: University of Virginia
Distribution: world,local
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1993 15:10:58 GMT

In article <1993Jan26.223928.1@violet.ccit.arizona.edu> f67709907@violet.ccit.arizona.edu (Greg Franklin) writes:
>In article <1993Jan26.200417.1@ulkyvx.louisville.edu>, pjtier01@ulkyvx.louisville.edu writes:
>> The Expos signed Jimmy Jones to a minor league contract.  He was a starter 
>> for the Astros who hasn't had an ERA below 4.10 in six years.  Has this guy
>> ever been considered a real commodity?  The Expos have rehabed players in
>> the past and they could use some middle relief.  Any thoughts on this guy's
>> past or future?
>
>This would make an interesting exhibit for the David-Tate-vs.-everybody-
>else rhubarb regarding value.  Here we have a demonstrably average (perhaps
>below-average) pitcher signed by a team with real pennant hopes.  What
>would Jones' value to the Expos be if he started 30 times with a 4.20 ERA
>and Montreal won the pennant?  Or lost it narrowly?  Or lost it by plenty?

The rhubarb only exists because people are throwing around two
different definitions of value!!

1) It doesn't matter how the Expos finish when you compute Jones'
value. It is independent of team.

2) WIN VALUE means how much value a player has, compared to league
average. If you are below average, you help the team go under .500. If
above average, you help the team go over .500. If Jones is, say, -2
wins for the Expos, and they win anyway, it means that the sum of the
other parts (Walker, DeShields, Grissom, Martinez) offset that -2 by
enough for the team to win. 

3) REPLACEMENT VALUE is what a player has by being better than the
alternative. By definition, only half the people in the league have
positive win value. The other half are not worthless; their
contribution to winning consists only of being less negative than
someone else. That does have value. If the Expos have a ten man staff,
and Jones is the 10th best pitcher on the team, he has replacement
value.

4) RAW VALUE is what a player has simply by being better than
absolutely no one at all. If you can do better than making 0 plays in
the field and being an automatic out at the plate, you have raw value.
*I* have raw value, and I am amediocre player at slow-pitch softball,
for crying out loud. But I can catch an occasional fly ball or
grounder, and I might be able to get HBP once in a blue moon. But that
measure of ability is worthless when discussing major leaguers. Jones
clearly has a lot of value here, better than 99.999% of the US
population. But it is worthless, because he isn't playing with the
99.999% who are worse than him; he is with the .0001% who are as good
as or better than him.

If you think of baseball-playing ability as a bell shaped curve, the
comparison value can be visualized as a vertical line somewhere on the
curve. For raw value, the vertical line is at the far left end; for
replacement value, near the far right end (so that it includes only
about 1000 people from the entire population); for win value, even
closer to the right end (so that it includes about 250 people).

Clay D.