From: traynor@fnala.fnal.gov
Subject: Re: ND vs. Michigan
Organization: Fermi National Accelerator Lab
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 1992 05:30:40 GMT
X-Posted-From: fnala.fnal.gov
NNTP-Posting-Host: sol.ctr.columbia.edu

In article <1992Sep15.182305.12039@cs.ucla.edu>, reiher@ficus.cs.ucla.edu (Peter Reiher) writes:
> In article <JOHNDOE92Sep15.131034@squid.inmet> johndoe@squid.inmet (johndoe) writes:
>>In article <1992Sep15.131421.21483@news.nd.edu> rszczerb@schiller.helios.nd.edu (Robert Szczerba) writes:
>>In article <JOHNDOE92Sep14.133428@squid.inmet> johndoe@squid.inmet (me) writes:
>>>>endings ever to a college football game.  if notre dame and michigan both go
>>>>undefeated-once tied this year, expect michigan to get the nod.
>>>>
>>>>-johndoe
>>>
>>>I'd really like to hear your justification for this.
>>>
>>>	   - Rob
>>
>>1.  the national champion is voted for.  voters this last week proved that
>>they favored michigan over notre dame, both being undefeated-once tied.  
> 
> That's this week.  Whether it will make a difference come January is
> hard to calculate, but I'd guess it won't.
> 
>>2.  notre dame was at home and michigan was on the road.  since home-field
>>advantage is usually considered by oddsmakers to be worth something, i would
>>think this means that michigan should be considered slightly stronger.
> 
> That week.  There are still lots of more weeks in the season.
> 
>>3.  both have difficult but not extremely hazardous schedules, so the
>>argument can't really be made for either one that they would have played a
>>stronger schedule and thus deserve the win more.
> 
> At this moment, calculating schedule strength is a somewhat meaningless
> exercise.  Purdue didn't look like a tough game for Cal, Michigan, or
> Notre Dame.  It clearly was for Cal, and might prove to be for Michigan
> and ND.  There are lots of teams on the schedule of one of Michigan and
> ND not on the other's.  Until things get a bit clearer as to what teams
> are strong this year and what teams aren't, I wouldn't make any strong
> predictions based on schedule strength.
> 
>>personally, i am all for trying to match up #1 vs. #2 come bowl time, but
>>even if everyone else loses a game somewhere along the way, there is no way
>>for michigan and notre dame to meet in a bowl.  and given the above
>>criteria, i would expect voters to choose michigan over notre dame should
>>they be the last two standing undefeateds come january 2.
> 
> You're making a lot of unstated assumptions, here.  What if Michigan struggles
> in every game this year, barely winning them, while Notre Dame trounces all
> its foes?  What if the Pac10 champion turns out to be a wimp, while Notre
> Dame gets matched against the strongest team in the country in a bowl game?
> What if, for every one of Michigan and Notre Dame's several common opponents,
> Notre Dame wins more convincingly?  I strongly believe that Notre Dame being
> the home team for the tie game will be a minor factor, at best, come January,
> even if the choice does come down to Notre Dame vs. Michigan.  (Which I
> also doubt.)
> 
> --
> 		Peter Reiher
> 		reiher@wells.cs.ucla.edu
> 

Does anyone _seriously_ think that the national championship would boil down to
a choice between Michigan and Notre Dame?  I'm optimistic when I think ND has
a chance this year, and considering Big 10 teams' performance during final 
rankings, I cannot believe the odds of a Michigan/ND showdown for the national
championship are more than infinitesimal.  Plus Washington, Miami, FSU, Florida,
PSU (that will be a scary game), etc....

					-Mike Traynor



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Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college