Newsgroups: rec.collecting.cards
Subject: Stock Prices
From: rx84335@mcvax4.d48.lilly.com (BENVENGA MARK J)
Date: 27 Jan 1993 08:51 EST  
Distribution: world
Organization: Lilly Research Laboratories
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    Lines: 68

I thought there may be some interest in this story from
today's Wall Street Journal.  It is reprinted in part without
permission.

NEW YORK - Baseball-card stocks were hit by the news that market
leader Topps Co. will report its first quarterly loss in more than
a decade.
   Topps - which experienced strong insider selling last year - sank
31%, to $8.50 from $12.25, on seven times its usual volume.  Late
Monday, after the close of the market, the company said that a
"market contraction" would result in a loss for its fourth quarter
ending Feb. 28.
   The announcement sent shares of several other companies in the
sports-memorabilia business south yesterday.  Among them was Marvel
Entertainment Group, the comic book giant that purchased card 
manufacturer Fleer Corp. last September.  Shares of Marvel, which
according to analysts get half its revenue from Fleer, slid $3.375, or 12%
to $21.75 on heavy trading.
   "The speculative bubble has burst in the new cards," said Robert
Lifson, president of Robert Edward Auctions Inc, a Hoboken NJ auctioneer
of sports memorabilia.  "Speculators are not buying 100 cases and
putting them in their garage, because they haven't been rewarded for
doing that.
   In the new environment, Mr Lifson said, "there isn't room for as many
companies to put out as much as they do and to be profitable."
   As reported in this column Oct 14, Topps president, John Langdon,
sold all his 100,000 Topps shares in June and July of last year.
Earlier in 1992 came sales totaling 628,860 shares by four other
Topps insiders, including the chief financial officer and Theodore
Forstmann, a principal in investment firm Forstmann, Little and Co.
   Forstmann Little held a majority stake in Topps but distributed
it to limited partners in late 1991.  All the insiders sold their shares
at prices ranging from $15.375 to $19.  The stock began its slide from
that range in December on disappointing third quarter earnings.
  Authur T. Shorin, Topps chairman, said in an interview yesterday
that Mr. Langdon had sold his shares to buy a house and that the other
insiders trimmed their holdings for personal reasons.  While there is a
shake-out under way among card manufacturers, he said, it will be the 
weaker competitors, not Topps, that get taken out of the game.
   (STUFF REMOVED)
   After the Topps announcement, Shearson, Lehman Brothers analyst
Edward Cimilluca slashed his earnings estimate on Topps to 75 cents a share
from $1.18 this year and to 90 cents a share from $1.25 for the year ending Feb 
28, 1994.  He also changed his rating on the stock to "underperform,
high risk", from "buy, high risk".
  (MORE STUFF DELETED)
   Prices of three other sports and sportscard companies that trade over the 
counter also fell yesterday on higher than usual volume.
   Score Board, Inc was off $1.50 to $22.50.
   In the sports card market, dealers estimate that prices are down
about 10% on pre-1970's cards and as much as 40% for 1980's baseball cards.
Robert Wynne, who covers the industry for Tuff Stuff, said the oversupply
"has choked the goose that laid the golden egg".

Generally, I would say that there are a lot of companies out there
that are in trouble for the 90's.  Many will go out of business sooner
than any of us think.

Any comments?

________________________________________________________________________________
Mark J. Benvenga                          "Another Day, Another Dollar"         
Lilly Research Labs                                                            
(317) 276-8147
Benvenga_Mark_J@Lilly.Com
________________________________________________________________________________
     ***All Opinions, Whether Expressed Or Not, Are Entirely My Own***
                                                  '--> necessary disclaimer
Newsgroups: rec.collecting.cards