From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1992 03:57:33 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 322, 11/17/92
10.7 FLUX=152.3  90-AVG=124        SSN=149      BKI=2322 2112  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B6.7     FLU1=6.0E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2321 2221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=012,025,018,010,010,006,008,015   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 0834UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.5   @ 0336UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2045UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1630UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2325UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1730UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55427NT @ 1423UT   BOUTF-MIN=55396NT @ 1940UT  BOUTF-AVG=55417NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1806UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+007NT@ 2359UT  G7-AVG=+084,+030,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1754UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-016NT@ 0130UT  G6-AVG=+101,-009,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,150,155;SESC:150,150,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1103 4212 2114 4111  27DAY-AP=006,007   27DAY-KP=1221 1223 2101 3323
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0600-0627UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7345 (S23E60) grew
       in size, producing a C1.6/SF flare at 0834Z for the period's
       largest flare. New Region 7346 (S06E70) emerged around the east
       limb. Region 7346 produced a C-class flare also. Region
       7341 (S16W36) grew abruptly and produced several subflares.
       These three regions are responsible for the sharp increase in
       10.7 cm flux values (127 to 152 in 48 hrs), as well as the
       increase in background x-ray flux.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7341, 7345, and 7346 are all capable
       of producing isolated M-class flares.
       
            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for the first 24 hours at mid-latitudes and
       then become unsettled for the remaining 48 hours. High latitude
       stations are expected to be mostly unsettled.

            Event probabilities 18 nov-20 nov

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 nov-20 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions remained near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next 72
       hours.  Normal propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7335  S17W81  205  0270 DHO  10  003 BETA
7337  N06W12  136  0060 CAO  06  008 BETA
7340  S08E18  106  0000 BXO  04  003 BETA
7341  S16W37  161  0060 DSO  05  008 BETA
7342  S07W06  130  0040 CRO  07  013 BETA
7343  N08E06  118  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7344  S14E40  084  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7345  S24E59  065  0370 EAI  12  013 BETA
7346  S06E70  054  0220 EAO  12  008 BETA
7339  S18W55  179                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 NOVEMBER TO 20 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7323 S15   016


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
67   N35W54 N30W72 N39W80 N45W55  206  ISO   POS   009 10830A
68   N06E38 N00E21 N05E16 N22E35  105  ISO   POS   011 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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