From: spm2d@uvacs.cs.Virginia.EDU (Steven Miale)
Subject: "Death of America"
Organization: University of Virginia Computer Science Department
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1992 22:49:55 GMT

The person who wrote this has had problems posting it to this
newsgroup, and asked me to do so for him.
You can reply to him personally at the following email address:
	oracle!us.oracle.com!kwee@uunet.UU.NET

Note that I am not necessarily endorsing his views by posting this.

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Today I mourn the economic death of America.

We're on a collision course with the national debt.  In a few years, on the
current course, 100% of tax payments would be required to pay the interest
on the debt alone.  When investors in US government bonds finally start
to panick (read: come to their senses about our political reality), we'll
finally face reality.  There really is no room to maneauver: whatever
parameter we change in order to get out of this, there will be some kind of
disaster.  Unlike the 1950's, the world market has fundamentally changed and
we can no longer grow our economy out of the debt.

We'are going up the exponential curve of compound interest because the
government has been having deficits which are big fractions of, if not more
than, the interest payments on the debt for each year.  The economy is
growing nowhere as fast as the debt.  It doesn't matter exactly how it
grows and when we go bankrupt.  The BASIC EXPONENTIAL NATURE OF IT is
there.

We'll get a severe depression or inflation that make all depressions
and inflations look mild.  Or we'll get a combination of both.  That is,
if the economic and social fabric will survive at all.

Perfectly in keeping with the tradition of national disasters, people sit
around talking about trivial things like stimulating consumer confidence
and gays in the military.

WE MUST TAKE ACTION NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.  Make government give the
deficit first priority, however painful it will be.  To phase out the
deficit in a few years, institute across-the-board uniform percentage
cuts in all programs and entitlements BY DEFAULT.  Then the President
and Congress can discuss which programs are important or vital and
spare some cuts while deepening other cuts by the same amount.  This
kind of work is what politicians are supposed to be hired for anyway.
Americans MUST be prepared for a one-time sacrifice which it is
impossible to make completely "fair" in any sense.  It is either that
or losing our way of life and potentially turn into a 3rd world nation.
I think our collective level of education would not be incompatible with
eventually settling into that state after the turmoil.

A question for people in this newsgroup who pride themselves on being
economists: can you guys finally agree on something?  Or are you so
preoccupied with being "scientifically rigorous" that you fail to
foresee an obvious disaster that works under such compelling logic????  When
will we realize this fundamental fact: that the economy DEPENDS in large
part on faith, and that when you have such unsound situations as huge
amounts of money being borrowed (both domestically and internationally)
and growing exponentially with no prospect of ever paying back the
*interest* in a few years, people are going to lose faith somehow and
some kind of disaster will happen????  Even if this *would* not create a
disaster, how long have we been living on the edge and would it be
desirable to do so in the face of other potential problems????  Can
you guys forget your minute differences and UNITE on something????

Anyone with any elemental education on macroeconomics knows this basic
fact about the huge national debt: that basically we're using our
savings (which are supposed to make life better tomorrow through investments)
on immediate expenses today through the government.  We're getting BOTH
low taxes AND government programs (that we wouldn't want if we FELT
their costs today) by borrowing from the limited savings available for
investments for the future.  What is a government if it can't even
look after this for society?  Now we can't even do THAT anymore.
Is it time to wake up, folks?  SHAME ON YOU who have failed to alarm the
public of this basic fact!!!!

- Karl Wee
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Newsgroups: sci.econ,misc.legal