From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 1993 08:19:21 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                03 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 003, 01/03/93
10.7 FLUX=125    90-AVG=139        SSN=078      BKI=5435 3333  BAI=024
BGND-XRAY=B3.3     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=9.8E+03  PKI=5445 3433  PAI=024
  BOU-DEV=082,050,030,071,023,027,031,032   DEV-AVG=043 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.4   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.0
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2000UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2115UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0915UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1015UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 0419UT   BOUTF-MIN=55385NT @ 1957UT  BOUTF-AVG=55409NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1929UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 1018UT  G7-AVG=+073,+029,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+140NT@ 1931UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-039NT@ 1257UT  G6-AVG=+091,-002,+039
 FLUXFCST=STD:128,130,135;SESC:128,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=018,018,010/018,018,012
    KFCST=3335 6333 3335 6333  27DAY-AP=005,014   27DAY-KP=2111 2321 2233 4334
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The only flare of the
       past day was a C8/SF at 02/2352Z in Region 7379 (S12W89).
       This is a small, decaying sunspot group now at the west limb.
       Region 7388 (S08W43), which emerged yesterday, is now growing
       rapidly. Penumbra has already formed on both leader and
       trailer spots. New Region 7390 (N12W35) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels
       at most stations for the past 24 hours. These disturbed
       conditions had a gradual onset with no clear solar source.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled at middle latitudes and
       active to storm at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 04 jan-06 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 jan-06 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                60/60/40
                        Minor Storm           30/30/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/60
                        Minor Storm           50/50/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/10

            HF propagation conditions were degraded over the high and
       polar latitude paths for the last 24 hours due to periods of
       minor geomagnetic storm activity.  Many middle latitude regions
       reported moderate to occasional strong degradation in
       association with this activity.  This disturbance appears to
       have subsided and is resulting in gradual improvements in HF
       propagation conditions over these higher latitude regions.
       Areas of heaviest degradation were those near and in the
       auroral regions where fading, multipathing, and anomalous
       absorption was strongest.  Conditions are expected to gradually
       improve over the next 72 hours.  Near-normal propagation should
       return by about 06 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7379  S12W89  314  0010 BXO  05  003 BETA
7386  S05E41  184  0260 CKO  04  004 BETA
7387  S23E45  180  0180 CAO  09  008 BETA
7388  S08W43  268  0050 DAO  06  009 BETA
7390  N12W35  260  0010 AXX  02  004 ALPHA
7382  S18W68  293                    PLAGE
7389  S17E60  165                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 JANUARY TO 06 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7371 S09   125
7375 N14   103


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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