From: barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS: KENYA: OPPOSITION IN SHAMBLES AS MOI HINTS OF ELECTIONS SOON
Originator: barnhart@gagme
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1992 03:42:43 GMT

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Middle East
Title: KENYA: OPPOSITION IN SHAMBLES AS MOI HINTS OF ELECTIONS SOON


an inter press service feature

by horace awori

nairobi, oct 8 (ips) -- kenya's president daniel arap moi must
be a happy man these days. early this year he angered the
opposition by saying the date of the general elections was his
''secret weapon''.

all that has changed now, thanks to the squabbling and
confusion in the opposition groups. the kenyan leader threw the
parties into further confusion wednesday, and hinted the
multi-party elections -- the first since 1983 -- were just
around the corner.

''it appears the moment to fire the secret weapon has come'',
prof ouma osolo of the kenya national academy of sciences and
arts told ips here wednesday.

''he (moi) knows the opposition has let personal ambition
and personality squabbles demoralise their followers and is
doing all he can to show he is the man who can hold kenya
together''.

when the forum for the restoration of democracy (ford) was
launched early this year, it received overwhelming support from
all corners of the country. its first official public rally in
the capital, nairobi, was attended by more than 500,000 people.

rallies in the provinces were also well-attended. many
observers said if the kenyan elections had been called for march
or april this year, ford would have swept the board.

the massive support apparently scared moi to call for early
elections and kept the polls date a secret. according to the
constitution, the elections must be held before march 1993.

but the ''secret weapon'' was not so potent a weapon on the
opposition as was the opponents' own suicidal squabbling.

first, a plethora of parties sprang up. six parties have
registered so far, although some, like the social democratic
party, are said to be a one-person affair. attempts at
reconciliation, coalition or even merger have failed.

the democratic party is seen by prof kivunja kibwana of the
university of nairobi as ''a party the world bank and the imf
(international monetary fund) would approve of because of its
articulate enunciation of economic and fiscal policies that go
down well with the two institutions and western donors''.
(more/ips)


kenya: opposition (2)

other kenyans see the democratic party as a party of an
affluent and educated elite. it prides itself as a highly-
organised and disciplined party. but this discipline has not
been put to the test by elections for party offices.

this leaves the divided ford as the main opposition party.
the division arose over the mode of choosing a presidential
candidate.

veteran politician and kenya's former vice-president oginga
odinga, supported by a group of young lawyers like paul muite
and gitobu manyara, insists on a delegates' conference to choose
the candidate.

however, other party leaders like kenneth matiba and martin
shikuku, who enjoy grassroots support, are pressing for a
u.s.-style (electoral college) of nominating a presidential
candidate.

the two sides squabbled over this and failed to reach an
agreement, leaving many of their supporters confused.

many of the supporters went back to moi's ruling kenya
african national union (kanu). others joined the democratic
party and a few tried two weeks ago to revive a moribund kenya
national congress party which analysts believe is a non-starter
at this late hour.

kanu is holding a special delegates' meeting friday and moi
is expected to announce the election date then. speculation is
for a november election. if this fails, then the polls will be
held late january or february.

but the november date is considered the most likely since
ford will hardly get the time to sort itself out.

the goverment is glad the ford factions have been playing
into its hands.

the oginga faction rushed and held its elections in september
but has until now failed to register the new leaders because the
registrar of societies says the faction does not have the
original certificate of registration. the certificate is with
the matiba-shikuku group.

the registrar, omondi mrago, told ips wednesday he registers
''parties and societies, not factions''.

the odinga group tuesday waited in vain for an answer to its
bid to register its newly-elected officials. the group
eventually met attorney-general amos wako, who promised to tell
them their fate within days. but time is running out.
(end/ips/ha/apc/92)

Newsgroups: soc.culture.african