From: ssankara@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu (Sornam Sankara)
Subject: India Today - MARG opinion poll
Organization: The Ohio State University
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 1993 18:27:52 GMT



     (Edited from INN Digest without permission)
     -------------------------------------------

From: Uma Ramamurthy <uma@orion.stjude.org>
Subject:      INN Digest - Jan 8
India Interest Group News Digest    Fri, 8 Jan 93      Volume 2 : Issue 5
___________________________________________________________________________
Date: 07 Jan 1993 17:18:09 -0600
From: Rajashekar Betkerur <y13rxb9@mp.cs.niu.edu>
Subject: INDIA TODAY - MARG Opinion Poll ( PART I)

    The Nationwide opinion polls conducted by INDIA TODAY - MARG has been
reproduced here. This appeared in the Jan 15th issue of INDIA TODAY.
    ALL FIGURES ARE IN PERCENTAGE. Highlights are key statements picked out
from the explanation given in INDIA TODAY for each poll option. Some
statements may be differently worded or shortened to save time and space.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
        IN the aftermath of the events in Ayodhya, INDIA TODAY
   commissioned MARG to conduct a nationwide opinion poll. To capture the
   current mood, more than 200 field workers from MARG travelled to 350
   locations spread across 35 parliamentary constituencies and interviewed
   12,592 registered voters between Dec 17th and 23rd.

        The poll findings are reported by PRANNOY ROY and MARG.

                           ELECTORAL POLL
                           --------------
                                1991            1992
                              (Actual)*      (December forecast)
                               ---------------------------------
       Congress (I)              245             233
       BJP                       119             170
       Janata Dal                 55              35

        * includes by-election & Punjab results,figures are # of seats.

  Highlights :
          *  Cong (I) in an April 1992 poll was expected to win 290 seats.
          *  Major gains for BJP in the Hindi belt, especially UP.
          *  BJP would win less than 5 % of the seats in all Southern states.
          *  Earlier a predominantly urban party, BJP now has an equal share
             of the urban and rural vote.
          *  Women voters still prefer Cong (I).
          *  Brahmins are behind BJP, Kshatriyas & Vaishyas are split down
             the middle. BC's, SC's & ST's predominantly support Cong (I)
             with one in five backing the National Front - Left combine.
          *  60 % of the Muslim voters are with Cong (I), rest with the
             National Front - Left combine.
          *  The non-BJP secular vote is sharply divided between the Cong(I)
             and the NF - Left combune. In UP for eg. with less than 40 % of
             the vote, the BJP could win over 80 % of the seats.

                        AYODHYA IS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR VOTERS.
                        -------------------------------------

     Major Issues          ALL INDIA       Cong(I)     BJP      Muslim
                                           voters     voters    voters
     -----------------------------------------------------------------
     Ayodhya/Communalism    | 43.7 |        39.0       52.6      55.6
                            |      |
     Inflation              | 25.3 |        26.9       21.1      18.6
                            |      |
     Unemployment           | 12.9 |        13.8       11.5      11.5
                            |      |
     Corruption             |  6.0 |         6.0        6.8       4.7
                            |      |
     Other                  |  9.1 |        11.8        5.1       7.5
                            |      |
     No Opinion             |  3.0 |         2.5        2.9       2.1

  Highlights :
          *  Today the recent events in Ayodhya are uppermost in voters minds,
             pushing the perennial factor, inflation to the second spot. The
             April 1992 poll showed Inflation as a 53 % factor - the number
             one - and communalism a distant last at 11 %.
          *  Though Ayodhya tops the charts, inflation & unemployment add up
             to 38 % and are still strong factors.


                            DISSAPROVAL OF THE DEMOLITION
                            -----------------------------

                           Approve       Disapprove     No Opinion
                           ---------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA             | 39.3 |        | 52.6 |      |  8.1 |

     Cong(I) voters          26.9            65.1           8.0
     BJP voters              66.1            28.3           5.6

     Hindus                  43.5            47.7           8.8
     Muslims                 10.2            86.1           3.7

     North Zone              54.2            37.8           8.0
     South zone              16.7            70.8           12.5

  Highlights :
          *  Majority of respondents disapprove of the demolition, but the
             issue has truly divided the nation on political, religious and
             regional lines.
          *  Hindu views are fairly evenly divided. Muslims overwhelmingly
             disapprove. Interestingly about 10 % of the Muslims actually
             support the demolition.
          *  Strong disapproval in the South. The south statistics are closest
             to the Cong(I) voters disapproval, while north shows almost an
             equal affinity towards BJP voters feelings.


                      HOW COULD IT HAVE BEEN STOPPED ?
                      --------------------------------

                      UP Govt.       Taking       Preventing     Using
                      Dismissal     over site      assembly      force
                      ------------------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA         | 47.1 |      | 56.0 |       | 56.0 |     | 35.2 |

     Cong(I) voters      54.5          63.1           62.9         49.7
     BJP voters          32.9          43.9           44.0         22.4

     Hindus              43.9          54.0           53.4         32.1
     Muslims             72.5          70.5           76.6         59.9

     North zone          42.8          45.4           55.8         28.9
     South zone          56.2          65.3           60.4         44.8

  Highlights :
          *  Balance of opinion was that the Centre should have acquired
             the disputed land and tried to prevent the Kar sevaks from
             assembling at Ayodhya.
          *  All segments included, voters were opposed to any violence
             - lathi charges or firing - against the kar sevaks.


                        DID THE BJP BREAK THE LAW ?
                        ---------------------------

                        ALL INDIA      BJP voters    Muslims
                        ------------------------------------
     Yes                 | 52.9 |         34.1         74.3
     No                  | 29.6 |         54.0         12.8
     No opinion          | 17.5 |         11.9         12.9

  Highlights :
          *  Majority of voters say the BJP & the UP government broke the law.
          *  Even among BJP voters a third felt that their party and the state
             government had broken the law.
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