From: aws@iti.org (Allen W. Sherzer)
Subject: Re: DCX Funding (was: Re: Lunar landing in 2002)
Organization: Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 19:04:33 GMT

In article <=0jzqmn@rpi.edu> kentm@aix.rpi.edu (Michael V. Kent) writes:

>>There is however a small group in the Air
>>Force which does procurement the right way and could execute this program.

>Who?  Where?  Inquiring salesmen want to know!   :)

Check out One Small Step For a Space Activist... Volume 3 Number 6:


           One Small Step for a Space Activist...
                             By
                  Allen Sherzer & Tim Kyger

                        Wither DC-Y?

Most of you are aware of the Single Stage to Orbit (SSTO)
program being run this year by SDIO. McDonnell Douglas is
currently building a 1/3 scale SSTO test vehicle called DC-X as
phase II of this program. DC-X is taking two years to build at
a cost of $60M. This low cost is largely due to the 'skunk
works-like' procurement SDIO is using for the project. When
completed, DC-X will undertake a series of suborbital test
flights to demonstrate the viability of a full scale orbital DC-
Y vehicle.

Phase III of this program will build the DC-Y vehicle over
three years for about $3B. DC-Y will be a prototype capable of
lifting 20,000 pounds to LEO. At this point it will be
practical to expect private industry to develop the fully
operational DC-1 vehicle.

At least that was the plan. It now turns out that SDIO will not
be able to fund the DC-Y vehicle; the money for this program
will run out when DC-X testing is complete in Sept. 93. This
would be a terrible blow since the DC-1 vehicle has a realistic
chance to reduce launch costs by one to two orders of
magnitude. Worse, since it takes about a year to get the kind
of money needed for DC-Y we need to start NOW, or else we will
loose this opportunity.

The first thing is to find another agency or program to fund
the DC-Y vehicle. Any such potential agency should meet the
following criteria:

1. It should fit with the mission of the agency. Whoever takes
over "phase III" must have a reason to build DC-Y and be able
to show they need it.

2. The agency must want to do the work. If they aren't
interested in the project, they will make it fail.

3. They must adhere to the "skunk works" style of doing
business the way SDIO did. There are only two government
employees overseeing the current DC-X effort. Normally a
project this size would have dozens of government people
monitoring the project. If DC-Y is developed in the 'business
as usual' way, it may never fly.

4. The agency needs to have the money to do the job.

What agencies meet these criteria? NASA would seem the obvious
choice. But NASA fails most of the above criteria. NASA sees
SSTO as competing with THE Personal Launch System and THE NLS,
and is more interested in them; they would quietly let SSTO
die. NASA does not use the sort of skunk works development
needed and NASA overhead would bankrupt the program. Finally,
NASA doesn't have the money; the most optimistic projections
say NASA funding will be flat for a long time, and it also has
many programs (Freedom, EOS, others) getting bigger each year.

How about the Department of Defense? Doing it there would make
the 'space pie' bigger, allowing space to leverage off other
sources. This gives us more work without adding more burden to
NASA. There are also political advantages since it uses DoD
money to save aerospace jobs and helps restore the US as the
preeminent spacecraft builder.

Do they want the work? Additionally, DoD overhead can be just
as bad as NASA's. Can they provide the Skunk Works atmosphere
needed?

A recent reorganization of the Air Force may give us just the
sort of organization we need. Effective July 1, deep in the
USAF will be a group called the Space Test and Small Launch
Vehcile Program Office (STP), which will be part of the Space
and Missile Command. Their mission will be to develop
prototypes not intended for procurement. These are proof of
concept technologies which may someday get built but aren't
needed today. Does STP meet our criteria?

1. USAF launches lots of spacecraft; DC-1 with its fast
turnaround is the sort of thing the Air Force has been drooling
over for years.

2. Sources say a new AF Colonel will be taking over STP in
July. He is an enthusiastic supporter SSTO. His boss is also
interested.

3. STP routinely operates in 'Skunk Works Mode'.

4. Do they got the cash? Yes. Not only that, a working SSTO
would save the Air Force billions every year. In times of
decreasing defense budgets these savings will be a powerful
incentive.

STP would seem to be the best home DC-Y. Getting SSTO safely to
its new home should be our highest priority at the moment. This
vehicle and its associated reduced launch costs could open
space for true routine operations.

SSTO supporters insiders have done a fine job moving things
forward, but soon our help will be needed. Starting in
September expect to see a lot work pushing SSTO. If you want
to help organize the effort, contact us.

  Allen
-- 
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Allen W. Sherzer | "If they can put a man on the Moon, why can't they     |
|  aws@iti.org     |  put a man on the Moon?"                               |
+----------------------206 DAYS TO FIRST FLIGHT OF DCX----------------------+
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