From: sunder@altair.crhc.uiuc.edu (Srinivas Sunder)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc
Subject: Re: GOP to dump Bush, nominate Kemp !!!
Date: 30 Jul 1992 15:52:01 GMT
Organization: Center for Reliable and High-Performance Computing, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: altair.crhc.uiuc.edu

In article <Bs7EwC.Ms8@apollo.hp.com>, nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson) writes:
|> In article <1992Jul29.191823.20305@oakhill.sps.mot.com> pjm@anegada.sps.mot.com (Patrick J. McGuinness) writes:
|> >|> What *will* happen is the GOP will see Bush's numbers in two weeks.
|> >|> His still *way* behind. They know he will lose.  They need a candidate
|> >|> who has charisma and credibility on domestic problems
|> 
|> 
|>    I'd sooner vote for Kemp than Bush, I think he has a lot more on
|>    the ball.   In recent elections I haven't voted for any GOP can-
|>    didates, pretty much dividing my choices between Libertarian and
|>    Democratic candidates, (which just goes to prove that the Nolan
|>    chart, and conventional ideas of the political spectrum are pure
|>    bullshit) or protest write-ins.  But Kemp on the ballot might change
|>    that.  (on the other hand it might not; I like what I know about him, 
|>    but there's lots I don't know).

I don't think that Kemp will win either. But I DO believe that he will
really energize the GOP faithful, might up the %-age of blacks who vote
Republican, NOT draw the party's Senate, Gubernatorial and Congressional
candidates down, and make a real fight of it.

|> 
|>    On the other hand, what would be the reaction of the general electorate
|>    to a "back room deal" such as this?   The whole concept of having a
|>    primary is that the voters get some input into the process.   They 
|>    might reject such a last-minute change as undemocratic. 

Not really. It is pretty obvious that most people who voted for Bush voted
more out of loyalty and the lack of a serious alternative (Pat Buchanan isn't
really a credible alternative). The figure was something like 62% for BOTH
Bush and Clinton for the number of people who would have rather voted for
someone else. The figure has receded significantly for Clinton, but I suspect
that the same is not true for Bush.

|> 
|>    A Clinton win over Bush is NOT a given at this point.  Clinton has a
|>    lot of serious weaknesses, including a well-deserved reputation for
|>    "slickness" and a truly DISMAL economic and environmental record
|>    in Arkansas.

And Bush? His record is no better. And everyday a -ve economic report only
cements the impression (2nd quarter growth was only 1.4% annualized).

|> 
|>    If Bush would get his campaign into gear, exploit Clinton's record,
|>    and if he would act like someone who actually has *convictions* about
|>    *something* he could still win this election. 

He would if he could. But then there's that record that his opponent will
keep bringing up, his numerous flip-flops on serious domestic issues, his
virtual invisibility on any serious domestic initiatives, his virtual
inability to articulate a full sentence answer to any question AND the fact
that his opponent seems serious, credible AND articulate. Clinton is no Dukakis, 
as was revealed yesterday when his campaign retaliated promptly to a
Bush-Quayle '92 press release highlighting Clinton's flip-flops with a 
release of their own highlighting Bush's own flip-flops. Bush probably won't
lose by 20 points like he is trailing now, but he could well lose by about
10 points, in no less of a landslide in the electoral college.
             
|>    Otherwise I'll vote for the US equivalent of Lord Such: Andre Marrou.
|> 
|>    (I can safely predict that most people who know who Lord Such is don't
|>     know who Andre Marrou is, and I suspect vice-versa) 

You might be doing the Libertarians a disservice by comparing them to the
Official Monster Raving Loony Party (as different from the Monster Raving
Loony Party). The Libs are serious about what they intend to do, I doubt
that Lord Sutch ever was or is.


|> ----peter

-- 
Srinivas Sunder                                         sunder@crhc.uiuc.edu

If my employer shares these opinions, he deserves them.
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Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc