From: elie@sensors.njit.edu (...NADINE...)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.lebanon
Subject: Re: One Lebanese for every three people.!
Date: 22 Jul 92 10:04:30 GMT
Organization: New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, N.J.

In article <9QR-bJ=@engin.umich.edu> hani@mx.engin.umich.edu (Hani Abinassif) writes:
>
>Specialized?! eh...Could you provide the source?  
>I (IMHO) do not believe there is public opinion in Lebanon.  As Ziad
>says, Ourtet A'alam majmouA'een. It is rarely that you see  a Lebanese 
>(in genereal) who is committed to an ideology, a system of government,
>principles, political activism (ala Olf Palme style),  environmental
>awarence (GreenPeace style) or social activism...

That's because there is fawda (chaos) in Lebanon.
Nothing that can't be fixed.
When the insecurity of the people is removed all the people's energy
can be directed to building a healthy society. As a matter of fact 
at this time Lebanon is undergoing major crises. (Just look at the 
exchange rate).
As far as there being no public opinion, that's pure speculation, seems to me 
you are afraid of what the people really think. 

>To collect a poll
>that will reflect the Lebanese "public opinion" is one of the
>statistical delmma's...it is not that simple, especially with that
>small sample size, subjectivity, and ill conditioned attributes... 

I can't comment on this and neither can you because we were not there.

>How strong is that "current"?  Can you provide numbers?  I can not
>judge, since I have been out of Lebanon for long time.  

Ahh so that explains it. In any case, the "current" size is for us to know
and for you to find out. But its very small (marginal)... :-)

>> One of the poll's finding was that the Druze of the Shouf mountains are not
>> only opposed to elections in the presence of any foreign armies, but also 
>> want the Christians to return to the Shouf to take part in the ballot.
>
>How can they (Druze) oppose the elections, but ask the christains to come and 
>take part in it.  My concern is how the poll determined that observation.

The key words you missed are "presence of any foreign armies".

>> And one problem encountered by the pollsters in the Bekaa, the South and
>> the northern city of Tripoli was the large number of non-Lebanese.
>> Al-Wasat wrote that they found only "ONE LEBANESE FOR EVERY THREE PEOPLE".
>> 
>> Regards, Elie.
>
>Most of the conclusions are based on individual observations, rather than
>a scientific consensus...It would better to label it a such...unless you can
>provide more concrete numbers...

Well short of an entire census of the population, this will have to do for now.
I am pretty sure other polls will be taken.
And the most disturbing part is the last paragraph. I was always wondering
what happens since everyone is immigrating. For many years it was rumoured 
that the Alawites were moving in hordes into Tripoli. Even though Assad
talks about Arabic unity, seems his plan B is a Alawite state. Maybe 
that's not too bad afterall. If anyone has info about this issue send me mail,
I'd be interested in your personal experiences.

Regards, Elie.

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