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Date:         Tue, 25 Aug 1992 21:39:12 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Comments on the Balkans, (#761)
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As our mainframe was hit by lightning at 1702, and amazingly is up
presently, I hope this will get to you.

Comments on the Balkans

Today, I saw a message on POLITICS asking the sensible question
"what's happening in the Balkans?" I mused about this for a few
hours, and here is what little I can offer to illuminate the
situation.

Yugoslavia as we have known it is dead. A "new" "Yugoslavia" has
reportedly risen from the ashes of "old" Yugoslavia, which is
basically Serbia, Montenegro, and the "provinces" of Vojvodina and
Kosovo. The latter may be the next theatre of war once the Serbs
accomplish their goals, though that engages Albania into the
equation.

One republic has been formed into a country without violence -
Slovenia, though it may be a conduit for arms going to the Bosnian
Muslims and Croats. It is lucky. Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia are in
considerably worse shape.

Croatia is 1/3 occupied, by primarily "Croatian Serbs," though they
had help from Belgrade, despite the latter's denials of being
involved. Bosnia is 70% under "Serbian control," though it is not at
all clear to what degree Karadzic, the "leader" of the the Bosnian
Serbs, takes direction from Milosevic and the JNA military council in
Belgrade.

Bosnia is the edge, the point of the struggle. Serbs and Croats are
both alleged to be trying to massacre or expel by "ethnic cleansing"
the Moslims, who appear to be primarily descended from an ethnic
group called the Bogomil, who in the late 1300s came under Turkish
domination and converted to Islam. They claim to be the only European
adherents of Islam, and that the world is aiding and abetting the
Serbs in their policy of removing Muslims from Bosnia because both
the "world's leadership and the Serbs" are "selling the lie" that
Bosnian Muslims are trying to create a fundementalist Muslim state in
Europe (this from a young Muslim religious leader from Bosnia).

Yet, as I have said before, I agree with the Serb charge that only
they are being targeted about "death camps" and "mass murder" when
more probably all three factions are engaged in these kinds of
activities.  But, I also agree with the Bosnian and Croatian charges
that Serbia is committing acts of aggression against their countries
(as recognized by the UN, EC, CSCE, and, apparently, NATO).

The fighting is particularly bad in Bosnia, not only in Sarajevo,
where 28 have been killed in the past day, but also at Goradze, where
an unconfirmed report on NPR today had JNA planes attacking the city
with cluster bombs and napalm.

Tomorrow, a conference opens in London to discuss and negotiate a
possible cessation of the hostilities, but apparently there is great
pessimism about it accomplishing much. Lord Carrington, the EC
"special nvoy" to Yugoslavia, resigned today, saying he did not have
the time to negotiate all that will have to be to halt the fighting
AND meet all side's demands. The UN General Assembly voted, in a
non-binding resolution, 136-1, with 5 abstentions, to stop the
fighting in Bosnia, disband and disarm the Serbs, and to use force
if necessary to effectuate such a plan. NATO reportedly has a plan
that could involve the engagement of 6000 troops in the region were
the Security Council to decide to deploy them.

The REAL powderkegs are Macedonia and Kosovo, in this writer's
estimation. Macedonia has all kinds of folks on edge, most notably
Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria, all of whom have national groups living
in Macedonia PLUS Serbs, Croats, Muslims, plus a scattering of other
groups, like Albanians. Macedonia declared independence, has been
recognized as a state by Bulgaria, Russia, and a few others of the
"CIS" states, but not by the other four "great powers" on the UN
Security Council, nor most of the rest of the world. Most of this
"non-recognition" revolves around Greece's objection to the use of
the WORD Macedonia as the country name for this new republic. So far,
no incursions of whomever into Macedonia have occurred, but it is
feared such COULD occur. However, NPR and BBC have reported that
Serbs on the ground fighting in Bosnia suggest Kosovo is the next
target.

I wrote a few weeks ago that Kosovo had "been awarded" by the Great
Powers after the Balkan wars of 1912-13, which immediately drew fire
from Serbs, who stated they rightfully regained it, from Albania, a
loser in that war. Currently the area is run from Belgrade, as the
kosovo Parliament was disbanded by Serbia, and the 10% Serbian
minority tightened their grip on the province, reportedly by a fairly
large military influx. One theory I've heard or read has "ethnic
cleansing" eventually happening in Kosovo, dumping however many
Albanians on the bankrupt and totally unstable Albania, and whoever
else would take them.

It would appear on the surface that Milosevic, Karadzic and others
want to maintain Serbian dominance over as much of "former"
Yugoslavia as they can get the world to accept. It would also appear
that "Bosnians" may fight to the last to preserve "Bosnia." Several
nations might get into the act if Serbs attack Macedonia. Albania
may, foolishly, try to get into the picture if aggressive action
occurs in Kosovo.

It would seem that the fighting will continue, the deaths will
continue, while the negotiations appear bound to fail. Nobody is
apparently interested in genuine compromise, all sides have their own
unyieldable ax to grind. My 22 year old son called me from Arizona a
few moments ago, and asked, "who are the good guys, Dad?" I replied,
"there are none." Everybody involved in the continued fighting is on
the wrong track, there are no good guys, only shades of ridiculous
stupidity as the killing relentlessly continues.

Anyway, that's a over-simplified, all-too-brief summation of "what's
happening" in the Balkans to answer the POLITICS questioner. I hope
it helps. No solution appears anywhere, the rolls of dead grow longer
every day, that's the current reality of "Yugoslavia." VMS
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