From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:SOUTH AFRICA: DIPLOMATIC SUCCESS HEADED FOR DOOM OVER ANGOLA
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1992 01:20:16 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Africa, southern
Title: SOUTH AFRICA: DIPLOMATIC SUCCESS HEADED FOR DOOM OVER ANGOLA


an inter press service feature

by eddie koch

johannesburg, dec 15 (ips) -- in many ways, 1992 was for south
africa a year of diplomatic success. the country's apartheid
regime, renowned for its destabilisation of the subregion,
seemed on the verge of being accepted back into africa.

the southern african development community (sadc) debated the
possibility of letting pretoria into the club, while foreign
minister roelof botha attended a meeting with u.n. chief boutros
boutros ghali on the eve of the oau summit in dakar. botha was
also invited on an official visit to nigeria.

but now, a few weeks since foreign minister roelof botha made
his last trip to angola, pretoria's short-lived diplomatic foray
into africa seems to have taken a turn for the worse over the
prospect of renewed war in angola.

last week, frontline heads of state gathered in the
zimbabwean capital of harare for a special summit to deal with
serious allegations that the south african military were again
providing their old allies, the union for the total independence
of angola (unita) with guns and supplies.

furthermore, botswana, namibia and zimbabawe have sent
protests to pretoria complaining that their airspace was being
violated by regular flights of cargo planes ferrying supplies
into angola.

botha has vigorously denied the allegations pointing out,
correctly, that so far no concrete evidence has been produced to
back the allegations. but zimbabwe's president robert mugabe
insists the south africans are practising old style
destabilisation.

the south african government has supported both the major
rebel movements in the subregion, namely, the mozambique
national resistance (renamo) led by afonso dhlakama and jonas
savimbi's unita in angola.

the south african regimes critics believe pretoria's
department of military intelligence has perfected the art of
covert support to its surrogate political movements in southern
africa and is quite clearly continuing this strategy in an
effort to keep the allies of the african national congress (anc)
in the region weak.

billed in one newspaper article on the recent elections in
angola, as 'the year that peace broke out in the region', 1992
is ending with strong indications of a new cold war in the
region. (more/ips)


south africa: diplomatic (2)

according to professor rob davies, co-director of the centre
for southern african studies at the university of the western
cape, the move to renewed civil war in angola has serious
implications for south africa as well as the entire region.

''it is clear that some in the south african government see
the regional situation turning against them with the mpla
victory in angola, threats to the regime of their ally, hastings
banda, in malawi and the prospect of an electoral defeat for
renamo in mozambique,'' says davies.

another south african source, who worked with cuban
intelligence during the war in angola, pointed out that
pretoria's military intelligence chiefs had a strong interest in
ensuring that savimbi retains as much power as possible in
angola.

''while botha has some influence over savimbi, the department
of military intelligence is by far the most important
influential agency in the south african state when it comes to
unita and much will depend on whether the military in pretoria
continue to back unita,'' said the source who asked not to be
identified.

''initial indications are the civilians in the department of
foreign affairs are keen to see the results of the multi-party
elections in angola are respected but that the military are not
about to see their champion, savimbi, given a minor post in a
government of national unity''.

davies believes angola's immediate future is likely to be
dominated by a situation in which unita rebels simultaneously
negotiate a role for themselves in a government of national
unity and fight for increased territory in the country.

under it, either party -- but most likely unita -- would,
while proclaiming its desire for an eventual negotiated
settlement, simultaneously try to strengthen its hand by a
limited military offensive, says davies.

''the aim of military action would, in this case, presumably
be to secure better terms in an eventual deal - in unita's
case a stronger position in a power sharing government.''

davies says that if such a scenario materialised, there would
be grave consequences for mozambique and south africa, which are
now poised for democratic change.

''apart from the ever-present danger of an escalation into
full-scale civil war it would create a most unfortunate
precedent in which the threat of and resort to force by election
losers was visibly seen to result in the extraction of further
political concessions''. (end/ips/ec/tvh/92)
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