From: henry@bms.com (Henry Mednikoff)
Subject: Re: Comments on Russia's Future ..., (#799)
Reply-To: henry@bms.com
Organization: Bristol-Myers Squibb PRI
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 14:55:27 GMT

In article 01GSFSGE4RIA9UNE8V@VAX1.UMKC.EDU, CDELL@VAX1.UMKC.EDU ("VALENTINE M. SMITH") writes:
>Comments on Russia's Future ...
>
>The appointment of Victor Chernomyrdin as Russia's Prime Minister
>does not really solve the problems that the country faces. What DOES
>happen is that the conservatives get their wish and see the reforms
>attempted by Gaidar slowed down.
>
>But, the political problems remain. The alienation of the Army
>remains high, specially with no clear direction save diminishment in
>size. Now, there is talk that the new regime sees a way out of
>economic woes by increasing arms sales abroad, which this observer
>believes is high folly - exporting MORE problems to other countries
>to temporarily solve Russia's cash flow difficulties.
>
>The crime and corruption problems are still in place, according to
>experts I heard on a public radio talk show today, and although there
>is generally food available, much remains out of reach for the
>"average" Russian. Hyper-inflation, a rapidly devaluing ruble, a
>system that still pays large numbers of people who do no work, a
>police apparatus that has a horrible reputation still largely intact,
>and reactionaries of every stripe, ilk, and political belief dreaming
>and plotting to restore the old empire are but a few of the immediate
>problems facing this more "conservative" regime.
>
>Yeltsin gets a constitutional referendum in April, but is
>significantly weakened politically by giving up Gaidar and Burbulis
>(though Gaidar is now a "consultant" to the President). The "hard
>liners" would appear to have won a "Pyrrhic victory" in that now the
>disgruntled reformers are less inclined to cooperate with them in
>frustration, and damaging Yeltsin's ability to lead may cause
>eventual deposition of the fellow folks only six months ago as the
>only person who could lead Russia to a better future.
>
>My question, what's the point? What does "crippling" Yeltsin do
>positively for Russia's future? It would seem that the seeds of
>disaster were sown by the Congress, and though Khasbulatov reportedly
>came out of the brawl looking stronger, it would appear that the
>Parliament(s) appear more tarnished and narrow-minded than before.
>
>Where does the future lie; chaos, reform, slow "no-reform," or renewed
>authoritarianism? Most of Russia's futures do not appear bright, and
>a rumor that the Moscow regime is thinking of aiding their Sebian
>"Slavic brothers" in the illegal and immoral destruction of Bosnia
>seems the height of more folly. Russia can barely govern itself, let
>alone puddle in the murky cauldron of Balkan affairs.
>
>My view is pessimistic, but still wanting to think Chernomyrdin COULD
>do what Gaidar couldn't - lead Russia forward, which it really needs
>to have happen. But, I remain doubtful, and little I've read or heard
>in recent days heartens me much. I hope my short-term view is in
>error, and will gladly listen to evidence that sees the "CIS states"
>and Russia moving forward. I do not believe motion is occuring, save
>closer to the abyss' edge. Thoughts? VMS


I become even more pessimistic when I see some seeds of alliance "Germany-Russia-China".
If it becomes true, we will face enormous problems in Europe,Asia and almost everywhere.
Have anyone given a thought of Germany becoming MEGA-SUPER-POWER ? supported by
Russian & Chinese labor, material & market resources.
Eltsin called Germans something like "natural and historic friends of Russia..."

If the USA continues to sit on its hands, Germany will do the job well.

Henry.

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