From: drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David Robert Walker)
Subject: McCaskill v. McDowell
Organization: University of Virginia
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 17:56:11 GMT

Compare Jack McDowell to his teammate Kirk McCaskill.

      W-L    ERA   IP     H   R   ER  BB  SO
McD. 20-8   3.17  235.2  225  86  83  68 158
McC. 10-12  4.13  191.2  174 104  88  85  97

No question who is better, right? Lets look at the batter's statistics against
them.
     AB   H    DB  TP  HR  BB  SB  CS  BA   OBA   SA     EQA  EQR
McD. 894  225  38   6  21  68  27  14 .252 .307 .378    .223  104
McC. 725  174  28   7  11  85  12   7 .240 .322 .343    .217   81

It is McCaskill, not McDowell, who holds opponents to a lower BA, SA, and OPS.
McCaskill has the better equivalent average (a measure of expected runs per
out), and a better RC/27 (3.87 vs. McDowell's 4.03). McDowell's only
superiority appears to be in total pitches. If these were two hitters, he would
call McCaskill the better hitter, although giving McDowell credit for more
playing time. 
The differences in their records come from three factors. 1) McDowell has more
IP in the same number of starts, and so has 6 more decisions. 2) McDowell has
allowed 18 runs fewer than expected; McCaskill has allowed 23 more than
expected. 3) McDowell has 5.73 runs of support per 9 innings; McCaskill has
only 3.94.
If you give both men run support of 4.84 (splitting the difference between
them), and set runs allowed equal to equivalent runs, than McDowell (127 runs
of support, 104 runs allowed) projects to a .599 (17-11) record over 28
decisions. McCaskill (103,81) projects to .618 (14-8).
With that, here are the pitchers with the largest deviations from
expected runs.

PITCHERS ALLOWING MORE RUNS               PITCHERS ALLOWING FEWER RUNS
  THAN EXPECTED FROM EQA                     THAN EXPECTED FROM EQA
1. Kirk McCaskill   23                    1. Jack McDowell    18
2. Randy Johnson    17                    2. Chuck Finley     15
3. Kevin Brown      12                    3. Jim Abbott       13
4. Nolan Ryan       12                    4. Kevin Appier     11
5. Jack Morris      11                    5. Scott Sanderson  11

I can't see any rhyme or reason to the pitchers on these two lists, especially
with two teammates heading each list. A possibility is bullpen support, since
two Rangers and one Mariner (bad bullpens both) are on the bad list.
An unusual number of errors could contribute, especially given McCaskill's 
number of unearned runs (high) and McDowell's (low). Another possibility is 
simply luck. 
Note that this suggests that Morris is better than his ERA indicates 
(he is unlucky), or that he pitches poorly with men on base, letting more
score than should (i.e., he chokes under pressure) :-^) :-^)

The same lists for the NL:

 MORE RUNS THAN EXPECTED                   FEWER RUNS THAN EXPECTED
1. Dennis Martinez   13                      1. Greg Swindell    15
2. Terry Mulholland  13                      2. Bob Tewksbury    14
3. John Burkett      13                      3. Randy Tomlin     13
4. Ramon Martinez    13                      4. Bill Swift       10
5. Tim Belcher       13                      5. Tom Browning     10

    Clay Davenport                         drw3l@delmarva.evsc.virginia.edu
                                            Yes, I have drw's permission.