From: dxf12@po.CWRU.Edu (Douglas Fowler)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro
Subject: Free agents - who can leave, & what teams might gain?
Date: 29 Sep 1992 23:20:53 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: dxf12@po.CWRU.Edu (Douglas Fowler)
NNTP-Posting-Host: slc12.ins.cwru.edu


     I've been trying to figure out what some of the richest teams are,
in order to see who, in each division, is likely to be a so-called
"dominant team" if the players and owners don't come up with a good
system.  So far, here are my observations - some teams I'm not too familiar
with:

     AFC East: Miami can certainly be a dominant team, especially as long
as Marino is healthy, because they can just keep picking a couple big-name
defenders a year.  The Bills are in a small market, but seem able to pay
high salaries, so they could comppete.  The Jets and Patriots, I'm not too
sure about.  Bob Irsay will take lots of chances - witness the Jeff George
deal - but he may wind up spending too much money for his market.  Oh,
he'll contend for a while, and maybe make a Super Bowl, but then the Colts
will drop off because they've not had any picks in the first 2-3 rounds for
some 4-5 years.  Yep - Irsay will be the George Steinbrenner of the NFL.

     AFC Central:  An interesting division.  The Steelers are VERY frugal,
as it appears the Bengals are.  Art Modell wouldn't pay for Slaughter, but
he did pay for Hilgenberg, so Browns fans have hope.  Houston could wind
up winning a free-agent war here by default.

     AFC West:  Is there any question that Al Davis will try to sign
every Tom, Dick, and Harry that becomes a free agent.  I don't really
know which franchise is next richest.

  NFC East:  Jack Kent Cooke's teams often traded away first round picks
for more experienced players.  Now, they'll be giving them away for free
agents.  The Giants can afford to compete, as can the Cowboys.  Will Braman
be willing to open his pockets?  Will Phoneix draw enough fans to let
their owner do anything?

     NFC Central:  The Pack could be in BIG trouble, except that they could
wind up with a lot of draft picks.  Same for the Bucs.  The Bears look like
they could dominate here.  I don't know much about the Vikings or Lions.

     NFC West:  The 49ers should keep running away with things, but they'll
have their own high-priced free agents to sign, first.  The Rams have a
shot, too, given their market.  The Falcons could surprise, but I don't think
the Saints have much to spend.

     Of course, fans have been worried about big-market teams controlling
things for 15 years in baseball, so maybe these fears will go unfounded.
Still, though, what does it look like?  It looks like the same teams that
have dominated very recently will continue in 3 of the 6 divisions, with
Miami being back to the days of Csonka and Griese, the Raiders going back
to the 70s and early 80s, and the AFC Central a tossup.  I don't know if
fans will notice much of a difference!
     One of the problems that could result, though, comes because draft choices
are much more important in football; if a poor team were to lose 2 top
players and get several first round draft picks, it could wind up
surprising some people 2-3 years later because the talent is developed right
away instead of spending time in the minors - until, of course, it lost those
players to free agency.  I doubt that this will affect the top teams
as much, though, given what the Redskins have been able to do having what -
5 first round picks in the last 15 years?  Someone help me with that stat.

     Now, my last question - what name players are coming to the ends
of their contracts?  What are the chances of their teams re-signing them?
If there are a lot of name players, it would seem that owners in small
markets would want to get some kind of compensation system worked out,
but what about owners like Al Davis?  Wouldn't owners like Davis be
tempted to stall for a year, sign a bunch of free talent, and then
institute a system like baseball's, where the team losing the player
got the signing team's 1st round pick and then a pick between rounds,
for instance?
-- 
Doug Fowler: dxf12@po.CWRU.edu      :    "Every baby born into the world is
Real home: Canton, Ohio             :  finer than the last."--Charles Dickens
 Trying to follow in the path of our :     "A baby is an inestimable
Lord;anything close will be a success:  blessing and bother."--Mark Twain