From: kubey@sgi.com (Ken Kubey)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Bonds "choke"?
Date: 30 Sep 92 23:00:48 GMT
Organization: Silicon Graphics, Inc., Mountain View, CA

In article <1992Sep30.210044.18881@adobe.com> snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols) writes:
>In article <1992Sep30.200436.5092@odin.corp.sgi.com> kubey@sgi.com (Ken Kubey) writes:
>>>Come back when you can *define* choke.
>>
>>I don't think it's easy to put into numbers and statistics.
>>If you really want me to, I'll make and attempt to put it into that form
>>and will post it.  
>
>Please do.

I guess you need a good laugh :-)   Okay...

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Note: all of the values below are just rough guesses on my part
      and may not reflect reality.  This is just to give all you
      statistically minded folks an idea of how to define clutch/choke.

Importance of a game:

Average Regular Season Game:          1
RS Game in a close race:              5
RSG in a CR, last week of season     50
RSG that decides the division       200
Playoff game to break a RS tie      600
Average LCS Game                    100
Back to the wall LCS Game           300
LCS Game 6                          500
LCS Game 7 (or 5 in the old days)   800
Average WS Game                     200
Back to the wall WS Game            400
WS Game 6                          1000
WS Game 7                          2000


Importance of a plate appearance:

Runners on                       Outs
3rd 2nd 1st              0         1         2
-------------------------------------------------
000                      3         2         1
001                      6         6         4
010                     10        20        40
100                     30        50        40
011                     40        50        60
101                     50        60        50
110                     50        60        80
111                     40        80       100

Inning Multipliers:
-------------------
7th inning, close game - multiply by  2
8th inning, close game - multiply by  5
9th inning, close game - multiply by 10
Extra Innings          - multiply by  8

Bonus Multipliers:
------------------
Batter ties the game   - multiply by number of runs down
Batter breaks a tie    - multiply by number of runs ahead
Batter puts trailing team ahead - multiply by number of runs down * 2
Batter wins the game for trailing team - multiply by # of runs down * 4

Examples:
2 out bases empty single, 4th inning, no race   =  1 clutch point
2 out, 9th inning Grand Slam to win WS Game 7 4-3 = 2000 * 100 * 10 * 12
  which comes out to 24,000,000 clutch points (the best possible)
Kirk Gibson's HR off Eck: 200 * 4 * 10 * 4 = 32,000 clutch points
Chambliss' HR for NY vs. KC: 800 * 4 * 10 * 4 = 128,000 clutch points

To calculate a player's Choke Index:
  Calculate the player's Expected Cluch Points Index:
    Add up the value of all of his at-bats in the Series and multiply
    by his regular season OPS.
  Calculate the player's Total Clutch Points for the Series.

Choke index = Expected Clutch Points Index / Total Clutch Points

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Name:       Ken Kubey  or  QB   |  Reading, editing or printing of this text
Address:    kubey@sgi.com       |  without the express written consent of
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Organization: Graduate School of Industrial Administr., Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA