From: thietaniemi@cc.helsinki.fi
Newsgroups: soc.culture.soviet
Subject: The future of RUSSIA: 4 alternatives  (from the Finnish point of view)
Date: 27 Dec 92 12:23:26 GMT
Organization: University of Helsinki


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 THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA - FOUR ALTERNATIVES
 --------------------------------------------------------------

 According to the research published by the Finnish Institute of Foreign
 Policy, there are four distinct scenarios for the future of Russia:

 (1) A collective contract or agreement between bargaining groups

 (2) Fragmentation

 (3) A rapid movement towards market economy

 (4) Return to a totalitarian regime.


 A COLLECTIVE CONTRACT BETWEEN BARGAINING GROUPS might be reached
 between the military staff and army intelligence, state enterprises and the
 bureaucracy. It could stop - at least temporarily - the chaos that
 might endanger the future of Russia. The elected institutions might
 have a reduced position in the future - but Boris Yeltsin could
 perhaps maintain his position.

 Unfortunately, this kind of contract or agreement would not present
 any solutions to the problems that Russia is currently facing.

 From the Finnish point of view, this kind of agreement would not posit
 any immeadiate threats, but would anyhow accelerate the need of rapid
 rethinking in our foreign policy. The most decisive factor
 from the Finnish point of view would be the international community
 and it's attitude towards the change in Russia.


 THE FRAGMENTATION means that the decision-making would be rapidly
 transferred from Moscow to the republics and other local political bodies.
 This would increase the developmental differencies between various areas,
 but would, anyhow, lead to better coping with local features and problems.

 From the Finnish point of view, the fragmentation might denote a
 positive alternative: It could open new possibilities for Finnish
 foreign policy, especially with Karelia and St. Petersburg. There
 would be no need to change the Finnish security politics in the near
 future.

 But if the fragmentation would lead to military conflicts between
 various Russian areas and political bodies, the situation would be totally
 negative from the Finnish point of view. This would require an
 accelerated movement of Finland towards various European security
 organizations.


 RELATIVELY RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS MARKET ECONOMY might
 denote a rise in social differences and in inequality. Anyhow,
 if the market economy could be established in Russia, it would bring
 Russia towards the European system and essentially reduce the
 military fears towards Russia.

 From the Finnish point of view the movement towards the marked
 economy in Russia would reduce the possible tensions in our security
 politics. It would denote an intensified competition in the
 economy, instead. Moreover, there would be more possibilities to
 environmental co-operation between our countries.


 RETURN TO A TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM would be a negative alternative
 from both the Finnish and Russian points of view. The return might
 be initiated by either the "nationalists", the military or bureaucrats.
 These all alternatives were of negative nature.

 A totaritarian rule in Russia would lead to isolation of Russia
 from the international community. The economic problems of Russia
 would mostly remain unsolved and the social problems were dealt with
 more discipline and order, instead. However, the impacts of Russian internal
 social problems to the other countries might be temporarily reduced.
 Moreover, the environmental catastrophes might be simply covered
 and denied by the totalitarian regime.

 From the Finnish point of view the tensions in our security politics
 would be intensified: an immeadiate decision and re-thinking in foreign
 politics would be required. The isolation of Russia would hinder the developm
 of the trade between our countries. And the possibilities of Finland to
 positively influence the future development in Estonia, Karelia and
 St. Petersburg would be drastically reduced.


 Comments?


 Compiled from Finnish newspapers by
 Tapani Hietaniemi, Universitas Helsingiensis
                    urbs fennorum