From: mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers)
Subject: Re: Schmidt Computer Rankings through 8-Dec
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest) 
Distribution: na
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1992 02:51:44 GMT

In article <1992Dec11.185756.11680@coopsol.com> gordons@coopsol.com (Gordon Storga) writes:

><3100@devnull.mpd.tandem.com> dwelch@mpd.tandem.com (Dan Welch) said:

>>In article <1g35nhINNhv7@gap.caltech.edu> schmke@cco.caltech.edu (Kevin Todd Schmidt) writes:

>>>Rank Team                      Points  Record Sch. Str.  Last Week   Change
>>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>1    San_Francisco             80.873  11-2-0  70.320  (  2,  80.080)  +1
>>>2    Dallas                    79.867  11-2-0  70.896  (  1,  80.192)  -1

>>Much as I hate this part, I have to agree with it.  Dallas has to show
>>something in Washington this week to really prove their status as contenders.

>If I read the "rankings" correctly above, why does Dallas need to prove
>they are contenders.  They've compiled the exact same record as SF against
>tougher competition.  It would seem that SF is the one who needs to prove
>themselves.

Get the chip off your shoulder, Gordon.  The only thing that either team
has to prove is that they can knock the other off, in addition to the
lesser teams on the road to the Big Party.

>>>3    Philadelphia              79.679   8-5-0  73.570  (  3,  79.208)  +0
>>>4    New_Orleans               76.889  10-3-0  70.423  (  4,  77.235)  +0

>>I also don't see putting Philadelphia ahead of New Orleans.  The Saints'
>>defense is playing unbelievably well right now -- they look like the Eagles
>>of last year.  Their offense has also picked it up recently.  If they can
>>get over their San Francisco jinx, they are as likely to make the Super
>>Bowl as anybody.

>I think NO is ranked lower because of the strength of their schedule.
>Strange how NO with a better record against weaker opponents is behind
>Philly, but Dallas with the same record against tougher opponents is
>behind SF.  Something isn't right here.

In the first place, notice how close the Niners and Dallas are?  That,
along with the fact that they've reversed positions from the previous
week, tells me that the system isn't really able to determine a ranking
on them.  

This is consistent with intuition.  It's *very* difficult to make a case
for either team being a cut above the other.  Favoring the Niners is an
incredible offense; favoring Dallas is a slightly better defense (which
I personally find to be more important than offense).

Second, the Niners are 4-1 against teams I'd call very good.  And the
difference in the two teams' schedule difficulty isn't that large.

Anyway, this is only a tool (though a pretty good-looking one) and it's
doing its job.  I've got a pretty good feeling that Dallas and the Niners 
are going to square off in about a month; that will end the discussion
(except for the sore losers) once and for all.

BTW, Gordon, do we have a bet?
-- 
Michael Zimmers                                    |  Home:  408 996 1984
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