From: primeaux@carlsberg.cs.utk.edu (David Primeaux)
Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
Subject: Re: Bleak news from the academic job market
Date: 20 Nov 92 13:26:38 GMT
Organization: University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Department of Computer Science
Distribution: world
Reply-To: primeaux@carlsberg.cs.utk.edu (David Primeaux)
NNTP-Posting-Host: carlsberg.cs.utk.edu

[If you missed Ken McDonald's post on this subject (mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca) You might
want to look for it.  Although I agree with much of what he said, to save 
valuable electrons, I did not include his message here.]

The faculty that I have spoken with here are aware of the job problem for
CS PhDs.  I believe that part of the problem is the collapse of the defense
industry following the end of the cold war.  Someone on the net signs 
him/her-self "post-cold-war-surplus computer scientist,"  and I think it is 
probably appropriate.  We simply have not gotten the after-cold-war game
plan together.  That is (in my humble opinion): too much of this country's
basic research was defense-dollar driven.  Or, to put it another way:  there
is not enough incentive for non-defense-related industry to sponsor enough research.  [Disclaimer:  I think the end of the cold war is a good thing.
Also, I was never interested in working in the defense industry, although
I recognize that historically a lot of interesting research was appropriated
for defense purposes.]

Regardless of the reasons, there is more researcher supply than there is demand.
Experienced, and presumably relatively bright, highly educated individuals find
themselves unemployed or fearing unemployment.  Some of these persons would 
never have considered an academic position two or three years ago.  Now they 
are competing with presumably relatively bright, highly educated individuals,
both experienced and unexperiened who have considered academics their chosen
career path.  

You mentioned 200 applications for two faculty positions in CS.  From what
I have been hearing, that is relatively low.  I have heard reports of 300-400
for a single position, but this is only hearsay.

The bottom line:  I would have been more easily employable (at a relatively
high salary) if I had quit with a MS in computer science two years ago.
Instead, about to get a PhD and it is *tough* out there -- a "buyer's market"
if ever there was one.

Perhaps I am naive.  Nevertheless, I sense that consumer confidence will 
increase (at least initially, whether justifiably or unjustifiably) with
the new federal administration.  I think this will be good for the economy.
Additionally, I think that efforts will be made to supply non-defense related
industry with the needed incentives to perform R&D.  As the economy picks up,
tax bases will grow again and the budget crunch strangling so many schools 
will loosen and more academic positions will become available.  For the 
employee, the demand side of the picture will get better. But all this will 
not happen overnight.

Meanwhile, too, the production of new PhDs will continue.  Furthermore, 
those who decided to "stay in the pipe" a little longer because of the 
bleak economy will be pushed out into the workforce.  For the employee, the
supply side of the picture will get worse.

I think the long-run picture is somewhat more promising than is the short-run
picture.  This is because I believe that some number of people have been 
attracted to CS grad degrees because of their apparent marketability.  As
this has dried up, while still in the process of deciding on a career
track, some people so motivated will seek other careers.

Now if *I* could find a job, everything would be OK.   :}

-- david
primeaux@cs.utk.edu