Newsgroups: bit.listserv.seasia-l
Date:         Thu, 5 Nov 1992 08:06:27 +1100
From:         cat@COOMBS.ANU.EDU.AU
Subject:      US-Vietnam Normalization

Light at the End of the Tunnel: US-Vietnam Relations

Carlyle A. Thayer*

To appear in the ANU [Australian National University] Reporter:

In April 1991 the United States drew up a four-phase road map for the
normalization of relations with Vietnam. Each of the phases was linked to
progress on two issues, a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Cambodia
and a resolution of the long-festering POW/MIA (Prisoner of War/Missing in
Action) question.

Phase three was to commence after the Paris Peace Agreement on Cambodia had
been successfully implemented for six months and substantial progress had
been achieved in resolving so-called 'live sighting' and discrepancy cases.
The latter refers to 153 instances where Hanoi has indicated in the past it
had knowledge of an American serviceman missing in action but failed to
provide his remains or any information.

As a reward for following the road map, Vietnam was to be the beneficiary
of a series of US actions leading, in phase three to the lifting of the
trade and aid embargo and the establishment of diplomatic liaison offices
in Hanoi and Washington. In phase four, the United States would establish
full diplomatic relations, grant most-favoured-nation trade status and give
favourable consideration for development loans in major international
financial institutions.

Since the signing of the Paris Peace Agreement on Cambodia in October of
last year, considerable progress has been made on the POW/MIA question. The
United States has been given access to formerly classified Vietnamese
Defence Ministry files, a number of joint site excavations have been
undertaken, and US officials based in Hanoi have been given permission to
make unannounced visits to sites of live sighting reports.

Vietnam has fully supported the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Indeed, the outcome of the Cambodian peace process is no longer in the
hands of Vietnam or its allies in Phnom Penh, but with the Khmer Rouge.
Vietnam has fulfilled its obligations and its relations with the United
States should now be in phase three.

On October 23rd this year, President George Bush announced a 'major
breakthrough' on the POW/MIA question. Vietnam, he said, had agreed to turn
over all relevant material including photographs, artifacts and records
heretofore withheld. 'Today, finally I am convinced we can begin writing
the last chapter of the Vietnam War.'

This dramatic breakthrough was made possible through the efforts of
American Ted Schweitzer, a former medical relief worker in Vietnam. While
working in Hanoi Schweitzer discovered a treasure trove of material which
had been kept stored in an army musuem. On a later trip he was able to
bring in high-tech scanning equipment to copy thousands of pages of
material, including photographs taken of American pilots, alive and dead,
immediately after crash landing in Vietnam during the war.

These materials were turned over to Pentagon investigators. Later American
officials raised this new evidence with Vietnamese authorities and
successfully argued that such material was vital to resolving the POW/MIA
question. It was in these circumstances that Vietnam agreed to cooperate
more fully and make more information available.

These development have led to speculation that the United States will
normalize its relations with Vietnam early in 1993. This is probably a
premature judgment. When President Bush made his October 23rd statement he
was careful to refer to the road map. 'We have what is known as a road map,
kind of a technical term for what it's going to take to normalize
[relations with Vietnam],' he told CBS television news.

American Embassy officals in Canberra told this writer that it was more
likely US-Vietnam normalization would follow the China model, with a
diplomatic liaision office being established first. They argued that there
were still a number of technical and practical problems which would have to
be solved and that full normalization would therefore be delayed.

All these developments occurred before the US Presidential election on
November 3rd. Vietnamese officials are reported privately to favour a Bush
win as they could expect to build on the momentum created already.

It would seem unlikely that a lameduck Bush Administration would advance
the normalization process. Immediately after the October 'major
breakthrough' was announced, a number of American politicians and
Vietnamese-American lobby groups voiced their opposition to normalization.
They argued that Vietnam should respect human rights first and that
normalization should occur only after the communist regime was removed from
power and freedom and democracy restored to Vietnam.

The domestic debate in American contrasts sharply with that in Australia.
Since 1983 the Labor Government has avidly sought to develop a robust
relationship with Vietnam. After the signing of the Cambodian Peace
Agreement, Australia was the first Western country to restore direct
bilateral aid. Australia is presently the fourth largest investor in
Vietnam. Australia has also opposed punitive US actions in the World Bank
and International Monetary Fund to deny Vietnam development assistance.

Some have argued that the continuation of the US aid and trade embargo
presents Australia with an opportunity to get in on the ground floor before
larger competitors appear. When the US embargo is lifted, American
companies can expect to challenge Australian interests in off-shore oil and
gas exploration, banking, engineering and food processing. Japan would also
become more active.

While there is some merit in this view, the Australian Government has taken
the position of encouraging the United States to end its embargo. According
to a senior government advisor, in remarks made to the ANU's National
Development Studies Centre earlier in the year, 'Vietnam does not deserve
to be isolated, nor to have its basic and overwhelming development needs
thwarted. In this regard it is in Australia's interest for Vietnam to break
out of this economic isolation and achieve its potential even if this were
to mean that Australia would be a smaller fish in a bigger pond rather than
a big fish in a puddle.'

US-Vietnam relations will be normalized. But this will occur only after the
transition in administrations takes place in Washington and appropriate
personnel changes are made. It will be ironic, if press reports are
correct, that Clinton will bring back Carter-era officials who nearly saw
light at the end of the tunnel in their negotiations to normalize relations
with Vietnam back in September 1978.

*Visiting Fellow, Department of Political & Social Change, Research School
of Pacific Studies.




Carlyle A. Thayer
Associate Professor & Visiting Fellow
Dept. of Political and Social Change
Research School of Pacific Studies
The Australian National University
GPO Box 4
Canberra, ACT 2601 Australia

Phone: 0011 61 6 249 4453 office; 0011 61 6 251 1849 home
Fax 0011 61 6 257 1893 office; 0011 61 6 251 3749 home
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