From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1992 07:55:02 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               06 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 280, 10/06/92
10.7 FLUX=137.4  90-AVG=122        SSN=203      BKI=3312 2211  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B4.4     FLU1=8.8E+05  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=3312 3221  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=035,028,009,012,019,015,006,007   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.0   @ 1218UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.7   @ 0019UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.2
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 2240UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0540UT     PCA-MIN= -3.4DB @ 1920UT    PCA-AVG= -3.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55432NT @ 2159UT   BOUTF-MIN=55410NT @ 1721UT  BOUTF-AVG=55423NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+100NT@ 1636UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 1035UT  G7-AVG=+070,+036,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+107NT@ 2048UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-020NT@ 1712UT  G6-AVG=+079,-013,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:138,135,130;SESC:135,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/012,012,020
    KFCST=2332 2223 2332 2223  27DAY-AP=087,090   27DAY-KP=5768 7444 5787 5655
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low today.  C-class flares were observed from Regions
7303 (S14W17), 7305 (N12E16), and 7306 (S08E39).  The largest flare was a
class C3.0/SF flare at 12:18 UT from Region 7303.

     Region 7303 halted its rapid growth and stabilized.  However, it
continues to possess a delta configuration and shows moderately strong
magnetic gradients near the delta.  The group should be capable of supporting
minor M-class flares.  There is also a small possibility the group may
produce a major flare over the next 3 to 5 days.

     Most of the other regions remained relatively stable in terms of growth
and structural changes.

     Two filaments located near the south-central meridian disappeared today.
They were located at S25E15 and S41E07 and erupted sometime between 13:27 UT
and 22:15 UT.

     No new regions were assigned today.

     Solar activity is expected to be moderate on 07 October, and low to
moderate on 08 and 09 October.  M-class flare activity is possible in Regions
7303 and 7305.  The potential for an isolated major flare from Region 7303
persists.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled today.  It is expected to
continue mostly quiet to unsettled.  There is a small chance the field could
become mildly enhanced to unsettled or active levels on 08 October due to a
recent flare-related potential coronal mass ejection.  On or near 09 October,
a small, but well placed transequatorial coronal hole is expected to be in a
good position for increasing levels of geomagnetic activity.  Conditions
could become mostly active on 09 and/or 10 October if this disturbance
materializes.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  No notable
signal degradation was noted.  In fact, signal enhancements were reported
from many middle and low latitude regions around the world.  Similar
conditions could last through the end of 08 October if the small
flare-related disturbance noted above does not materialize on 08 October.
Minor signal degradation is expected on 09 and/or 10 October in response to
anticipated increased levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Despite
this, no significant ionospheric disturbances are expected at this time,
barring possible influential major flares.  Daylit paths may see occasional
signal absorption and fading attributed to minor solar flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7294  S11W87  045  0200 HHX  03  001 ALPHA
7295  N12W68  026  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7296  N07W66  024  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7298  N17W28  346  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7299  N13W15  333  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7300  N12E07  311  0040 CSO  07  012 BETA
7301  S17W15  333  0040 DSO  08  013 BETA
7302  S15W51  009  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7303  S13W09  327  0250 DKI  09  027 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7305  N12E16  302  0110 CAO  07  017 BETA
7306  S08E39  279  0090 DAO  06  014 BETA
7304  N03W34  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 OCTOBER TO 09 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7280 S12   222


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/ 0947     1015     1047                LDE    C1.8   60
06/A1327             B2215       S25E15   DSF
06/A1327             B2215       S41E07   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
59   N01E08 S01E01 N06W05 N11W02  325  ISO   POS   002 10830A
60   N18E26 N12E22 N20E15 N24E18  302  ISO   POS   001 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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