From: gtao@ux1.cso.uiuc.edu (Greg )
Subject: Re: WAR IN BOSNIA!!!!
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 00:38:32 GMT

Sorry folks, but I ended up responding to both parites in this letter.
I hate it when I do that!

rja@mahogany126.cray.com (Russ Anderson) writes:

>In article <BzF3Ju.K69@mentor.cc.purdue.edu>, smithmc@mentor.cc.purdue.edu (Lost Boy) writes:

>> According to the Thursday December 17, 1992 _Chicago Tribune_, George
>> Bush and company has authorized United States involvement in Bosnia.
>> 
>> This is probably the biggest foreign-policy mistake we could make. Bosnia
>> is an extremely dangerous region and sending US troops can only result in
>> a great deal of American bloodshed. 
>Does "involvement" == "sending US troops" (ie ground forces)?  There are 
>a lot of invlovement options (ie blockaides, provide information/arms to 
>one side) that can be done with relativly little risk to US troups.

I, too, would be interested to see this Tribune article.  My subscription
has been forwarded home for the Holidays.

If anybody comes across it, could you please post it?


>I'm not sure how this (the Serbia/Bosnia situation) differs from WWI or 
>early WWII.  

Well, for starters the Serbians are the stronger group this time.  In
WWII it was the Croations who helped the Germans round up Serbians.  A 
much overlooked part of WWII history is the mass-execution of some 
400,000 ethnic Germans at the hands of the Serbs just after the war.


>> 2) The United States has a great deal to lose in terms of manpower, stature,
>> money and resources in Bosnia, a region which is the most analogous to Veitnam
>> of all the regions we have been involved in since 1975.

Actually, the nature of a possible conflict in the Balkans would more
resemble Korea, tho' I did notice the specified time-frame

>Yes.  The US also had a great deal to lose in WWII.

I wouldn't be so hasty to draw any parallels between hypothetical 
inaction in WWII v. the Balkans.  The Serbians in no way pose the
threat of world domination that the Germans did in WWII.  I'm not
downplaying the gravity of this Balkan problem, I'm just making a
distinction.


>> 3) United States involvement in an area that has been historically explosive
>> (remember World War One?) can only feed tensions in the region and stir Anti-
>> American sentiment in the area. 

Well, how'bout the Middle East as a "historically explosive" area?  Some-
times the situation dictates action.  Please, I am in no way suggesting
that US military action is needed in the Balkans, just that "tensions"
are a poor justification for shying away from military action.   

>Early involvement by the US in the 1930's may have prevented WWII.

And a treaty ending WWI that treated Germany with dignity most certainly
would have averted hostilities.


>> In other words, we are opposed to this action on the grounds that it is a
>> generally bad idea. 

This statement reminds me of this passage from _A Hitchhiker's Guide to
the Galaxy_ where an action that leads to the end of the world is 
"widely regarded as a bad move".

>The action may be a bad idea, but inaction may be worse.

Quite a dilemma, huh?


>> Those who are interested in aiding us in urging President Bush and President
>> Elect Clinton to seek a more reasonable, far less dangerous solution to this
>> crisis,

I'll try to find this article I saved a while ago.  In it, a high-ranking
Serbian officer in the field said something like "this sort of ethnic
war can not end with out the complete extermination of one side". 

I wonder what sort of "reasonable" solution you would propose in this
situation.  To an average man-in-the-street there really seems to be
nothing we can do.

>And what solution is that?  Watch the Serbians ethnicly cleans Bosnia?  Watch
>as other Eastern European countries try to re-draw their borders by force?

Hey, it's been happening ever since the break-up of the former Soviet 
Union.  I saw a cartoon in the Tribune earlier this week.  There were a
bunch of Pentagon Generals sitting around looking pretty bummed, and one
of them said "I miss the Evil Empire". 


>>          please email me at smithmc@mentor.cc.purdue.edu. I will probably not
>> be able to respond for a while, as I will be away for Christmas break so I
>> can organize things in Chicago. Once I get back I will contact everyone who
>> responds and provide them with information on who to contact and what measures
>> are being taken. I will also send a copy of a petition which is going around
>> to everyone who is interested. This petition is a 15 line document written in
>> vi which you may modify as you like.
>> 
>> In the meantime, we should all pray for peace in Bosnia before it becomes
>> more of a mess than before.

I agree with the "pray for peace" part.

>Given the situation in Bosnia, the quickest route to peace is the "ethnic
>clensing" of the non-Serbian population.  That is a quick route I hope
>does not happen.  The other routes all involve militarily stopping the
>Serbian "ethnic clensing".  Those routes are 1) arm the Bosnians fighting
>against Serbian forces (in a war of attrician) or 2) use (or the treat) of 
>force by US/Nato forces to make Serbia back down.

Well, also consider that 1) the Serbian gave the Germans a helluv a 
fight in WWII when they were greatly underarmed.  They have a long
history (500 years of Turkish occupation) of fighting well at home.
and 2) They have declared that all UN personal would be considered 
as "hostile" if anything even close to a no-fly rule goes into effect.
This means any intervention.  The message is clear:  stay out!

My point is that you can not reasonably expect to intervene in this 
sort of a situation without committing yourself to an all-out war 
against the Serbs.  Presumably, that is who you perceive as the "bad
guy".  A rediculously foolhardy endeavor would be to try to use troops
to facilitate humanitarian efforts.  I hope our government has more
smarts than that.


*******************************************************************************
* Gregory Tao                      | E-mail to:  gt38091@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu     * 
* Univ. of IL at Urbana-Champaign  |        OR      gtao@vmd.cso.uiuc.edu     *
* Department of Computer Science   |        OR      gtao@ux1.cso.uiuc.edu     *
* --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *
*                                                                             *
*  	``Change, suddenly, is everywhere we look, sweeping empires and       *
*    ideologies before it, shaping a new era even as we watch. Such moments   *
*    are rare. Today we stand at such a moment.''                             * 
*                                                                             *
* --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *
* DISCLAIMER:  My opinions do not necessarily reflect those of CCSO or the    *
*              University of Illinois.					      *
*******************************************************************************

Newsgroups: alt.politics.bush