From: jaffray@sunkist.berkeley.edu (Alan Jaffray)
Newsgroups: rec.games.bridge
Subject: Re: you be the judge
Date: 13 Aug 92 20:13:44 GMT
Distribution: world
Organization: U.C. Berkeley Math. Department.
NNTP-Posting-Host: sunkist.berkeley.edu

I decided the question of what to do with 98xxx AQTx Qx Qx opposite 
a 1S opening was kind of screaming for a simulation, so I did one.
(You don't want the program, it's dusty and ridden with GOTOs, don't ask).

The hands generated were for partner to hold 11-13 HCP and 5+ spades,
the only ones where the decision of whether to get to game will matter.
I am quite aware that the results are only meaningful given the opening
style of the partnership (I assumed all 13's, most non-horrid 12's, and
good 11's are opened), and if you apply them to a different style they
will be INSANE.

That being said, out of the 50 hands that I generated, only 10 were 
relevant cases (openers that would reject a limit raise), and of
those 4 did not make game, 3 could go either way, 1 was a good game,
and 2 made game but were quite close on the decision whether to
accept.  Too small a sample, but if you want to see the hands,
here they are....

-- Alan

AKT74         J             Q3            98652   yes
762           5             KJ984         AQT3
KJT6          A875          942           Q3
7             KJT9543       A82           Q6

AQJT3         74            K             98652   no
76            K854          J92           AQT3
K8            T754          AJ962         Q3
JT95          AK4           8732          Q6

AJT74         3             KQ            98652   yes (?)
2             KJ64          9875          AQT3
AT75          K942          J86           Q3
K85           JT94          A732          Q6

JT743         KQ            A             98652   irr
J9            K742          865           AQT3
AKJ65         987           T42           Q3
7             AJ52          KT9843        Q6

AQ743         KJ            T             98652   irr
              K9874         J652          AQT3
KT            J94           A87652        Q3
KT8753        AJ4           92            Q6

AKJ74                       QT3           98652   irr
K7            986           J542          AQT3
98654         AJT           K72           Q3
J             AT87542       K93           Q6

KQJT3                       A74           98652   irr
2             K974          J865          AQT3
K6            AJ875         T942          Q3
K8753         T942          AJ            Q6

AKQT3         J             74            98652   no
K54           J92           876           AQT3
98            AKJT42        765           Q3
T92           873           AKJ54         Q6

AKQJ74                      T3            98652   irr
74            985           KJ62          AQT3
42            AKJ965        T87           Q3
KT5           A972          J843          Q6

AKJ73         Q             T4            98652    tossup
J95           K6            8742          AQT3
76            JT4           AK9852        Q3
K87           AJT9542       3             Q6

KQT43         J7            A             98652    irr
9             54            KJ8762        AQT3
T865          KJ974         A2            Q3
AKJ           T972          8543          Q6

AQJT43                      K7            98652    irr
94            K65           J872          AQT3
A7            JT982         K654          Q3
JT5           A7432         K98           Q6

AJT73         K4            Q             98652    tossup
54            862           KJ97          AQT3
K2            AJ9864        T75           Q3
KJ84          95            AT732         Q6

KQ743         JT            A             98652    irr
KJ842                       9765          AQT3
T2            KJ94          A8765         Q3
A             KJ98752       T43           Q6

QJT74                       AK3           98652    no
K862          4             J975          AQT3
K7            AT865         J942          Q3
KJ            A987432       T5            Q6

AKJT4         7             Q3            98652    irr
754           62            KJ98          AQT3
AT86          K74           J952          Q3
8             AKJ9754       T32           Q6

AKQT43        7             J             98652    irr
9             87            KJ6542        AQT3
K75           AJ842         T96           Q3
JT7           98543         AK2           Q6

AQJT73        K             4             98652    irr
              K98642        J75           AQT3
KJ9           A875          T642          Q3
J973          85            AKT42         Q6

QJ743         A             KT            98652    irr
4             J97           K8652         AQT3
T9            J87652        AK4           Q3
AKT92         875           J43           Q6

AKQT3         4             J7            98652    irr
95            J872          K64           AQT3
KT94          862           AJ75          Q3
98            AK432         JT75          Q6

AKQT3         74            J             98652    irr
54            KJ876         92            AQT3
AT74          K9            J8652         Q3
92            KJT4          A8753         Q6

KQT43         A             J7            98652    tossup
64            98752         KJ            AQT3
42            9876          AKJT5         Q3
AK75          982           JT43          Q6

KQJ74                       AT3           98652    tossup
5             KJ9742        86            AQT3
974           AT85          KJ62          Q3
AJ85          KT3           9742          Q6

KQT74         AJ            3             98652    irr
K742          98            J65           AQT3
JT9           76542         AK8           Q3
A             KT84          J97532        Q6

AJT743                      KQ            98652    irr
              J9864         K752          AQT3
AT865         K92           J74           Q3
K7            98543         AJT2          Q6

AKQJ7         T3            4             98652    no
J8            974           K652          AQT3
J864          AK9           T752          Q3
95            A7432         KJT8          Q6

AQT73         K4            J             98652    yes (?)
654           KJ7           982           AQT3
A2            KJ975         T864          Q3
KT9           873           AJ542         Q6