From: dos105@rsphy2.anu.edu.au (Darren O'Shaughnessy)
Subject: Re: Unluckiest non-finalists (OR: We still love you, Saints)
Followup-To: rec.sport.football.australian
Organization: Australian National University
Date: Wed, 19 Aug 92 01:30:28 GMT

In article <1992Aug18.165210.2784@riacs.edu>, nicholso@pioneer.arc.nasa.gov
(Melvin H. Nicholson YBH) wrote:
> 
> dos105@rsphy2.anu.edu.au (Darren O'Shaughnessy) writes:
> >    Well, it looks like the Saints are going to dip out of the finals.
> >Damn, I was just getting used to the idea of the Moorabbin - sorry,
> >Waverley - boys being regular finalists.
> >
> >                Pat Rourke (you may not have heard of me)
> >
> 
> Don't give up yet Pat (Darren?).  Here are the saints three ways into
> the final.
> 
> 1: The Saints beat Melbourne, then Melbourne beats Hawtorne.  (ok, so
> this isn't the best "cheer up" method, but they do get better)
> 
> 2: The Saints beat Melbourne while Carlton thrashes the Collingwood
> Magpies, then Adelaide pulls off a miracle upset of Collingwood the
> last week of the season.(okay, I suppose any way which includes a
> "miracle upset" isn't much to get excited over either)
> 
> 3: The Saints beat Melbourne as Collingwood squeeks by Carlton with a
> win, and while we hear the Magpies blather on for days about what divine
> inspiration gave them the win, the Eagles beat Carlton.
> 
> It could happen.  In fact, I feel like drawing a silly flowchart:
> 
> 		_______________
>                /               \
>                |     START     |
>                \_______________/
>                       |
>                       |
>                       v
>                 ______________                  _______________
>                /              \ Melbourne wins /               \
>                | Saints/Melb? |--------------->| Go home early |
>                \______________/                \_______________/
>                       |                               ^
>            Saints win |                               |
>                       |                               | Hawks win
>                       v                               |
>                 ______________                 ________________
>                /              \               /                \
>                | Carl/ 'wood? |               | Hawthorn/Melb? |-+
>                \______________/               \________________/ |
>                  |         |                           ^         |
>                  |         |'pies win                  |         |
>     Carlton wins |         v                           |    Melb |
>                  |   _______________                   |    wins |
>                  |  /               \   Carlton wins   |         |
>                  |  | Adel/Carlton? |------------------+         |
>                  |  \_______________/                  |         |
>                  |         |                           |         |
>     +----------| | |-------+ Adel wins                 |         |
>     |            |                                     |         |
>     |            v                                     |         |
>     |    ______________                                |         |
>     |   /              \    Collingwood wins           |         |
>     |   | Eagles/Wood? |-------------------------------+         v
>     |   \______________/                                    ________
>     |          | Eagles win                                /        \
>     +----------+------------------------------------------>| finals |
>                                                            \________/
> 
> Well that was pointles...
> 
> Mel

  Actually, there is one more "miracle" way of the Saints making the finals
- if we beat Melbourne by a margin about 85 points bigger than Hawthorn's
win over Melbourne. Or at least that's the way I remember the percentages
to be. I'd pin most of my hopes on Carlton having burnt themselves out
against the Bulldogs to the point where they die in their last two matches.
  Please, please not a Carlton-Collingwood draw!

        Signed,
                Pat Rourke (you may not have heard of me)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.australian