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Date:         Wed, 6 Jan 1993 00:29:26 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Thoughts About Chernomyrdin, Summitry and START II, #802
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
          kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
          srdjan%cathy@kri.fer.yu, christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
          76701.103@compuserve.com

I've been most deletorious in my self-appointed task of late, though
I did write eight messages on the Balkans early in the a.m. two days
ago. I hope you will forgive me, having a broken bone on in my hand,
and trying to whip this book into shape has had me frazzled.

Thoughts About Chernomyrdin, Summitry and START II

Prime Minister Chernomyrdin reinstated price controls today on
"basics" of the Russian consumer's food basket - meat, bread, tea,
salt, sugar, butter, milk and vodka. This action would appear to be
the first "rollback" of the Gaidar reforms, though the Prime Minister
appeared to be going very slow at making many moves that would
outrage the reform elements in the country, such as the retention in
the Foreign Minister's slot of Kozyrev, a bane of most "conservative
hard-liners," who think the Foreign Minister too cozy with the West.

The signing of START II over the weekend seems both a potentially big
step forward, with a reputed 2/3 cut in nuclear weapons by Russia and
the US in roughly a decade's time, and a large potential pitfall. The
pitfall are the weapons in Belarus and Ukraine. As I recall,
Kazakhstan has signed and ratified START I, but neither of these
other new nations have. I heard the other day that 1600 nuclear
weapons of both a strategic and tactical nature are still in Ukraine,
and there is apparently a sizable minority that sees the idea of
Ukraine being the world's third largest nuclear power to be a
protection against potential Russian aggression and to their
advantage to keep.

Without START I being ratified by these two nations, START II is a
empty shell of an agreement, more ceremonial than useful. George Bush
again stated today at West Point that the world was safer than it had
been from the threat of nuclear holocaust, but I see it more at peril
as long as powers still in transition from a Communist state to some
other kind of state not yet clear are still armed with nuclear arms.
The agreement created a brief moment of last minute summitry for
President Bush, and occurred on Yeltsin's home turf, so neither man
"lost" anything by signing a treaty. However, today's RFE/RL report
made it clear that "Parliament" is not enchanted with the treaty, and
it was predicted that ratification is in for a hard fight, at least
in Russia.

President-elect Clinton and Yeltsin spoke on the phone for twenty
minutes yesterday, RFE/RL reported today, NPR reported yesterday,
primarily about START II and the possibility of a summit, perhaps as
early as this summer (which I believe too soon from this side of the
pond). I just cannot see why START II is being hailed so widely with
the START I holdout situation going on (though I do like the second
treaty's goals IF they come to pass).

Chernomyrdin appears to be stolidly trooping along in his job, no
quick moves, but defintely rolling back some of the reforms. How
long can he last? I think it depends on the slipping ruble's fate
(and what he does about it - reportedly 500 rubles = $1 on the first
anniversary of Gorbachev's "fall" from the Soviet Presidency), job
availability come spring, and whether Russia gets involved in
Bosnia-Hercegovina..

START II is more illusion than substance still, and summitry means
less and less.THe rest of winter and the spring promises to be
lively! VMS
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