From: HADCRJAM@admin.uh.edu (MILLER, JIMMY A.)
Newsgroups: alt.current-events.somalia
Subject: Re: Somalia
Date: 16 Dec 1992 22:25:16 GMT
Organization: University of Houston Administrative Computing
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: uhad2.admin.uh.edu
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In <1992Dec16.211244.22871@news.acns.nwu.edu> tjewald@casbah.acns.nwu.edu writes:

> Brad from North Dakota recently disputed my comparison of Operation Sweepsweek
> to Vietnam, and listed 6 distinguishing factors.  Since I can't get this damn
> thing to copy, I will list his factors, and then dismiss them...
> 
> >1.	The Somolians are not receiving any aid from China and the Soviets,
> >	unlike the VC and NVA.
> 
> So what?  They have plenty of arms left over from the shipments the US and the
> Soviets made trying to win their favor during the Cold War.

  True but if they get smashed up, they will no get replaced.

>  And with plenty
> of nations willing to sell arms to whoever wants them, I doubt if a financed
> warlord would have much trouble getting his hands on weapons.

  Financed how?  Selling quat (sp?)?  Hell, if they could finance themselves
selling drugs or something as you mentioned below, they wouldn't need to steal
food and money from the relief agencies, now would they?  THINK for a second.
I'm sure they could buy arms if they had cash.  But where's the cash?

>  And, I just saw
> a report on the news that some warlords might even have Stinger missiles sold
> to them by our former pals the Afghan freedom fighters.  How is that for
> irony?

  Pretty ironic if they get used.

> 
> 
> >2.	Somolia is a desert, Vietnam is a jungle.
> 
> Again, so what?  Jungle environments aren't the only venue that can cause a
> mobilized/mechanized army like ours trouble.  Look at the Russians in
> Afghanistan --- that was no jungle.  Look at the Germans at Stalingrad in '42;
> similar house to house urban fighting would take a helluva toll on the US. 
> And, once you move out of the major cities in Somolia, you find that the area
> is NOT all desert (counter to everyone's notions about Africa).

  But your geographic analogies are still perilous.  Afghanistan also had 
plenty of mountainous areas to hole up in, *plus* hiding areas in Pakistan,
and US support, with Stingers, etc.  There were a lot more Russians, better
armed, relative to the Germans than there are Somali irregulars to the US 
troops.  And don't leave out the effects of General Winter on the German army.

  Somalia does have some rough country inland.  But I submit they will not 
prove anywhere as dangerous a foe as the VC with Soviet supplies or the Afghans
with US supplies.

> >3.	The NVA and VC were highly trained, the Somolians aren't.
> 
> Granted, but remember that we had a helluva lot more troops and firepower in
> Vietnam than we ever will have in Somolia.  We dropped more bombs on North
> Vietnam from 1963 to 1972 than we did in all of World War II.  A
> half-assed group of good ol' boys in jeeps, wacked out on a drug that makes
> them paranoid, and armed with automatic weapons can still be quite dangerous
> to our scaled-down occupation army.

  But only to small groups of that army.  There are also fewer irregulars than
VC/NVN regular troops.  A rag-tag, undisciplined forces (really, forces) with
uncertian morale is no match for real combat troops with well-maintained gear.
Note that the VC and Afghans were rag-tag, but they had discipline/fanaticism
and superpower support. to boot.  Also, let us note that these bandits almost 
certainly do not enjoy the same level of support from the Somalis that the VC 
may have gotten in Vietnam, and the Afghans got in Afghanistan.

> >4.	Somolia is not being supported by outside powers.
> 
> My response from Point 1, covers this, but in addition, I'll add that warlords
> financed by drug deals are still capable of receiving "aid" from the outside
> world.

  I remind you that if they were able to buy arms with this voluminous drug
money, enough to cuase problems for the US military, then they would have no
need to steal from the relief agencies bringing in food.  And if by some chance
they could make serious $$ this way (wouldn't cocaine from South America be
cheaper anyway?) it could be only a few of the groups, not enough to pose a
real threat to the US forces as a whole -- and how they gonna grow enough
drugs to buy all these wpns in a drought?

>  Plus, who needs a lot of aid to cause a few problems for an occupying
> army?  The rebels in El Salvador proved that real rebel groups survive on what
> they steal and forage.

 The Salvadoran rebels got Soviet gear funneled in from Nicarugua.  Note that
in the last year or so they have come to the negotiating table.  Note that
the USSR has been defunct for slightly longer than that...

>  Watch the
> footage on TV: you will find that watching US troops rolling into isolated
> villages is disturbingly similar to footage in Vietnam.  Assuming that history
> can't repeat itself based solely on geography is stupid --- and dangerous.

  And getting a queasy feeling based on these familiar imgaes is just as 
foolish.

> >5.	The Somolian country is desolate.
> 
> Again, its the basically the same point made in 2.  Its not as desolate as
> you might think, and who says that a rebel group needs a jungle to be viable? 
> The Afghans, UNITA, French Resistance, etc. proved that non-jungle terrain is
> just fine.

  The Afghans had mountians, the French had France (which includes forests and
lots of little villages), but UNITA I'm not as familiar with...weren't they in
the southern part of Africa, which has lots of brushland?  And all these groups
had support from outside powers, somthing the Somali bandits lack.

> >6.	The warlords are too busy fighting themselves to cause us any 
> >	problems.
> 
> There is nothing like an invading army of foreigners to unify rebel groups (at
> least temporarily).  Mao and Chang Kia-Chec teamed up in China temporarily to
> resist the Japanese during World War II.  Ho ChiMinh's rise to power was aided
> in part by the fact that the Saigon gov't was seen (correctly) as a puppet for
> foreigners.  And, even if the warlords don't team up, they can still cause
> problems individually for a rather small occupying force.

  Numbers rarely tell the whole story (see Iraq, Iran, and Persian Gulf War I &
 II).  This is the first problem that might actually come to pass, IMO, the
warlords linking up.  But I might note that there are counter-examples of
failing to remain united despite a "common" foe -- see the black violence in
South Africa between the rival tribes.  The Afghans had this problem too, just
not as badly.

> Somolia is not an exact parallel of Vietnam, but the similarities are closer
> than you might think.  Reduce the amount of outside help the Somolians are
> receiving (unlike the VC), but also reduce the amount of US force involved.

  Don't forget that the Somali force is also smaller than the VC, and much
more fragmented.

> But, in addition, explain to me why stability will suddenly be brought to
> Somolia when we get the food delivered???  NO PERSON who is in support of
> Operation Get Your Mind Off the Depression on this net has been able to
> explain how we are going to be able to pull out of Somolia after we have
> delivered the food (our stated policy).  Do we feed 'em now and watch 'em
> starve in '93?  Or do we stick around and try to install a puppet gov't for
> stability (which may take months).  

  The trick is to get the gangs disarmed sufficiently to allow more traditional
UN peacekeepers to keep the lid on while a real government is formed.  Right
now, Bush is saying that the US should not do that -- this is a mistake.
The US probably should see about doing just that.  With the gangs largely dis-
armed, smaller forces can get the job done.

> 				property is theft,

  Actually, this line explains a lot of your thinking...(I know I'm setting
myself up for a line on *my* "semper fi" tag line, but what the hell.)


semper fi,

Jammer Jim Miller 
Texas A&M University '89 and '91
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Newsgroups: alt.current-events.somalia,alt.politics.bush,alt.president.clinton