From: 91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard)
Subject: Re: Lies, Damn Lies, & Statistics (was Re: The Monthly Cecil Fielder Thread
Organization: Dept. of Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, ON
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 1992 17:54:24 GMT

In <1992Sep3.005752.13903@midway.uchicago.edu> nss3@kimbark.uchicago.edu (Noel Steere) writes:

>you postulate above).  I mean, who would you rather have at the plate
>with the bases loaded, Frank Thomas or Pat Tabler (Tabler is something
>like 50-for-102 in that specific situation)?  I'll give you one guess
>(two if you guess Tabler :-)).

Why not Tabler?  Is 50-102 (or whatever) not a big enough sample size?

>Now, if a batter's ability doesn't change from situation to situation,
>why would a statistic that largely depends on what the situation is

A batter's ability will not change from situation to situation but his
capability does change.  Some hitters derive greater advantage from a
drawn in infield, or a first baseman anchored to the bag or the knowledge
that all pitches will be in the strike zone than other batters.  In 
certain situations then some batters are likely to increase their production
at a greater rate than others in the same situation.

>things: The team's on-base percentage (or, how well the team gets on
>base without making an out), and the team's slugging percentage (or,
>how well the team moves runners over without making an out).  This
>works well for any season you can mention; not perfectly, mind you,
>but well enough to believe that there's a strong correlation between
>OBP and SLG on the one hand, and scoring runs on the other.

Using the same logic I can tell you that there is a strong corelation
between RBI's and runs scored...

>So, if we take as givens:

>1) The talent in each league is roughly equal, so no one batter will
>have a significantly easier/harder time hitting than any other batter.

>2) A batter's ability is not affected by the situation (i.e., stuff
>like "how many men are on").

The batter's ability is not the issue here.  His capability is and as I said
above the batter's capability IS situation-dependent.

>3) OBP and SLG give us a good idea how many runs a team will score.

>American League?  Also, can you see why some Netters claim that there
>are at least 20-40 players that would help the Tigers score runs more
>than Fielder?  Incidentally, here's a list of the obvious ones
>(OBP+SLG > .850 > .784 = Fielder's OBP+SLG):

RBI's are strongly corelated with runs scored.  Since we are trying to measure
an individual's participation in the total runs scored by the team (and not the
player's ability) RBI's are a strong indicator of how many runs scored an
individual participated in.  How many of the player's on this list would have
as many RBI's (or participated in as many runs scored) as Cecil has if they
were batting in his place? 

>Daulton
>Kruk
>Bonds
>Van Slyke
>McGriff
>Sheffield
>W. Clark
>Hoiles (Injured, admittedly)
>Brunansky
>Whitaker
>Deer
>Molitor
>Tartabull
>Alomar
>Winfield
>Thomas
>Mack
>Puckett
>McGwire (again, injured)
>Henderson (of course, three of him wouldn't be bad either :-))
>E. Martinez
>Griffey, Jr.
>Downing

>I hope I've made a convincing argument, and I hope you'll reconsider
>your estimation of Cecil Fielder.  This article went much longer than

I think it has become trendy to knock Fielder.  Fielder is a good ball
player.  He may not be the best but he is far from the worst.  He is
consistent and he comes to play.  He is a valuable part of Detroit's
offense.  

>I anticipated, but that's probably because I'm venting a lot of
>pent-up frustration at the idiots in the media who shower guys like
>Fielder, George Bell, and Andre Dawson with praises but largely ignore
>guys like Lou Whitaker or take a dim view to guys like Barry Bonds or
>Frank Thomas because "they take too many walks, and that doesn't help
>the team win."  Yeah, right.  Frank Thomas so much as admitted that he

When has this been said?  I have never heard a "mediot" say that taking
walks doesn't help a team win.  And having just watched the Jays play
Chicago I would have to say that the attention Bell got compared to 
Thomas had more to do with his personality rather than his production. 
(And that is after putting aside Bell's past with Toronto).


rm 

-- 
roger maynard                    
91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca 
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball