From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 5 Jan 1993 11:25:39 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                04 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 004, 01/04/93
10.7 FLUX=121.1  90-AVG=139        SSN=097      BKI=4333 4333  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=6.1E+06  FLU10=9.8E+03  PKI=4234 5343  PAI=022
  BOU-DEV=057,024,027,031,066,034,027,033   DEV-AVG=037 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.6   @ 0055UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.0   @ 1720UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2030UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0135UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1045UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 0041UT   BOUTF-MIN=55389NT @ 2012UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1911UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 1300UT  G7-AVG=+065,+027,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+141NT@ 1911UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-020NT@ 0606UT  G6-AVG=+083,-001,+041
 FLUXFCST=STD:128,130,135;SESC:128,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/018,012,010
    KFCST=3334 5333 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=014,020   27DAY-KP=2233 4334 3334 4344
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0057UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest X-ray burst
       of the day was an optically uncorrelated C6 at 04/0055Z. The
       largest observed event was a C4/bsl (bright surge) at 04/2025Z
       in new Region 7391 (S07E76). This Region has a number of small
       spots with penumbra and is not yet completely in view. The
       growth rate of Region 7388 (S07W57) has slowed. Other disk
       Regions were quiet. New Region 7392 (N14E21) was also numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7391 may increase the likelihood of M-flares.

            The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels at
       middle latitudes and active to storm levels at high latitudes.
       The high latitude field experienced major to severe storm
       conditions from 04/0900Z to 1500Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  for the next 24 hours the
       geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled at middle
       latitudes and active to storm at high latitudes. Activity is
       expected to subside to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of
       the three day forecast period.

            Event probabilities 05 jan-07 jan

                             Class M    05/10/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 jan-07 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/30/25
                        Minor Storm           20/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths due to continuing periods of active to minor
       storming of the geomagnetic field.  Most of the degradation has
       occurred during the night sectors in the form of fading and multipath
       activity near and within the auroral zones.  Gradual improvements are
       expected over the next 72 hours.  Middle and low latitude paths should
       see near-normal propagation by 06 January.  High and polar latitude
       paths should return to near-normal by about 07 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S04E29  183  0270 CHO  06  008 BETA
7387  S22E29  183  0150 CAO  05  004 BETA
7388  S07W57  269  0120 DAO  09  009 BETA
7390  N12W48  260  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7391  S08E76  136  0120 CSO  11  002 BETA
7392  N14E20  192  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7393  S18E15  197  0020 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7382  S18W81  293                    PLAGE
7389  S17E48  165                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 JANUARY TO 07 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7375 N14   103


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0043 0055 0101              C6.6                   II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
04/B0057             A0100                RSP    C6.6   18  1
04/B1630             A1949       N24E34   DSF
04/B1635             A1718       S04E34   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
81   N41E37 N14E04 N14E04 N41E37  199  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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