HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: Conservative Values (Re: New group proposal:  alt.conservative.forum)
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 21:23:34 GMT

Let me add only this synopsis of a panel discussion at last week's American 
Economic Association meetings.  The title was "What Caused the Recession of 
1991-92?".  Chairing was Ray Fair;  panelists were Olivier Blanchard, Robert 
Hall and Edward Prescott.

Blanchard's hypothesis:  The recession saw a large swing in consumption 
expenditures, far more than the 1980-82 recessions.  There was also a fall 
in investment expenditures, but that was much milder than the consumption 
swing.  The result of a fall in consumption is that the recovery is far 
smaller than are recoveries from investment-led recessions.  (My own reading 
would be that this fits the 1975 recession as well.)

Hall's hypothesis:  Hall presented eight possible explanations of the 
recession, none of which he found completely satisfactory.  The eight were:
	-- Price shocks, such as oil.  Please note the oil price rises came 
after the onset of the recession.  (Beware:  Deluge of statistics may follow 
a flame on this point!)
	-- Unaticipated money supply change.  "Why would Greenspan not 
announce he had reduced target growth?" asked Hall.
	-- Contractionary fiscal policy.  There was no change in real 
spending.
	-- Tax rates increased.  Sorry, Robert Bartley, but rates did not 
change greatly, though collections did.
	-- Technology shock.  See Prescott hypothesis, below.
	-- Credit crunch.  Hall argues that for this to have real effects, 
there had to be a regulatory change in this period.  (My note:  I would 
argue that a change in enforcement of the same regulation is equivalent to a 
change in regulations with the same enforcement procedures.)
	-- World economy.  But this was growing in 1990, Hall said.
	-- Spontaneous decline in consumption, e.g., the Blanchard 
hypothesis.  Hall commented that while there were negative shocks in 1990, 
there were positive shocks in 1988 that may have lengthened the fat years 
out to seven.  It clearly had an effect, Hall concluded, but doubted it 
could explain the magnitude of the decline.

Prescott hypothesis:  There were a series of small productivity shocks that 
occurred in 1990, idiosyncratic and thus unexplainable, that were capable of 
producing the size of the recession we experienced.  Gary Hansen and he 
developed a real business cycle model that, based on starting values set in 
1987 (which they consider an appropriate base year) is capable of generating 
these types of cyclical behavior.  In particular, labor productivity fell 
before the recession.  Hall notes that the size of the producitivity decline 
was too small to explain the GDP changes;  Prescott did not agree.

Newsgroups: sci.econ
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Date: Tue,  5 Jan 1993 10:37:25 -0500 
From: Lyle_Seaman@transarc.com
Subject: Japanese PC price war?

Excerpted from Dow Jones ...
  
  TOKYO -- NEC Corp., Japan's No. 1 personal computer maker, said it
will offer its own line of low-priced PCs to defend its dominance of
the Japanese market against cheap U.S. imports, The Wall Street Journal
reported.  

 



Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: rja@mahogany126.cray.com (Russ Anderson)
Subject: Re: Inflation 
Originator: rja@mahogany126
Organization: The 1991 World Champion Minnesota Twins!
Date: 5 Jan 93 15:23:53 CST


In article <38124@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu>, jfh@beach.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky) writes:
> In article <1992Dec30.015836.12988@samba.oit.unc.edu> Robert.Vienneau@launchpad.unc.edu (Robert Vienneau) writes:
> 
> >The purpose of pointing out the above is to show that the experts
> >disagree on practically everything about inflation. So we have lots of
> >theories to choose from. I personally prefer Post-Keynesianism.
> >
> >                                      Robert Vienneau
> 
> I refer readers again to the CPI for the past two centuries. The general
> rise in prices of all goods and services is attributed to an increase in
> the money supply (the original meaning of inflation.) Notice that
> prices jump during the war of 1812, when the BUS printed money to help 
> finance the war. Notice that prices jump after 1860, when the U.S. govt
> issued $400 million in fiat moeny (greenbacks). Notice that the price
> level takes off after 1913, when the inflationary Federal Reserve system
> was installed, and with the exception of the Great depression, prices have
> risen steadily since, really taking off after 1971, when the U.S. abandoned
> the international gold standard (this was the cause of the inflation of the
> 70's--not oil shocks, etc.)

I agree.

> I don't know much about Post-Keynesianism, but if it resembles Keynesiansm
> at all I would tend to discard it. 

From "Free to Choose" by Milton & Rose Friedman, p257:

  You can see why John Maynard Keynes, in discussing the inflations after
  World War I, wrote: "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning 
  the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.  The process
  engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction,
  and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
  (John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace",(1920) p 236)

> I personally prefer the Austrian school of Economics as espoused by
> von Mises, von Hayek, Henry Hazlitt, Murray Rothbard, George Reisman,
> etc.

I don't see how their views differ with Keynes.  Could you elaborate?

-- 
Russ Anderson    |  Disclaimer: Any statements are my own and do not reflect
------------------              upon my employer or anyone else.  (c) 1992
EX-Twins' Jack Morris, 10 innings pitched, 0 runs (World Series MVP!)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: GDP and GNP 
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 20:41:58 GMT

In article <1993Jan9.000152.15495@cheshire.oxy.edu> tamada@cheshire.oxy.edu (Michael K. Tamada) writes:
>In article <1993Jan8.223758.13567@seq.uncwil.edu> bgoffe@seq.uncwil.edu (
Bill Goffe) writes:>
>>GDP is the value of all output in a country (even if it is produced
>>by a foreign firm in the U.S., say), while GNP (for the U.S.) is the
>>value of output by U.S. firms. Thus, it includes output by U.S. firms 
>>outside the U.S. and does not include output by non-U.S. firms in the
>>U.S. Thus, GDP better measures what is happening in the U.S.
>>
>>The change from GNP to GNP just recently occured in the U.S. I could
>>be wrong here, but I think that the U.S. is among the last to do so.
>>GDP if pretty much used around the world.

The other reason offered for the change was that the revisions to GNP due to 
missed forecasts of foreign production by U.S. firms was getting fairly 
large.  The size of the revisions, Commerce said, would drop with the 
switch to GDP.  After seeing the revisions of third quarter 1992 GDP, I 
wonder if they're still singing this song.
From: landsbur@troi.cc.rochester.edu (Steven E. Landsburg)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: network resources for economists
Date: 12 Jan 93 17:26:27 GMT
Organization: University of Rochester (Rochester, NY)


In article <thompson.726854286@kiyotaki.econ.umn.edu> thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu writes:

>
>One suggestion that I have is to develop an internet archival system
>for working papers in economics.  I envision something like the
>following:
>


There is an excellent system of this sort being run for working papers
in algebraic geometry.  As a subscriber, I get regular automated email
messages listing abstracts, and I can email to a server to receive
either indexes or complete papers.  I believe that the system was
first developed by physicists and then the software was made freely
available to the algebraic geometers.  I also believe that they are
willing to make it freely available to other disciplines.

--
Steven E. Landsburg
landsbur@troi.cc.rochester.edu
From: sibu@cse.unl.edu (Sibabrata Ray)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Question about exchange rate
Date: 11 Jan 1993 03:49:02 GMT
Organization: University of Nebraska--Lincoln	
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: cse.unl.edu

I don't know whether this is a proper group to ask this question ....
But still,

Can any kind soul tell me what is the name of the currency of
Newzeland and what is its exchange rate  with US $.

Please mail your reply at sibu@cse.unl.edu

I'm not a regular reader of this newsgroup.

Thanks for your time.

sibu
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: bucknerb@bnr.ca (Brent Buckner)
Subject: Re: "Death of America"
Organization: Bell-Northern Research, Ontario, Canada
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 19:13:33 GMT

In article <1993Jan8.015030.23831@oracle.us.oracle.com> kwee@oracle.uucp (Karl Wee) writes:
>
>Please read the earlier posts.  The man was saying if real interest rate
>remains the same, if the economy grows at a certain constant rate until 1999,
>etc., then the ratio of debt to GDP  will begin to drop in 1999.  Give
>me a break.  The man may have the numbers but no common sense.  It is ludicrous
>to talk about narrow escapes which will remain narrow escapes for another few
>decades, all dependent on such assumptions remaining true for so long.

A scenario is not a plan or a prediction.  Further, you are
analysing the usefulness of the presentation on grounds other than
it was given.  It was given as a response to a question.  

>It is analyses like this that enable politicians to say "We needn't do
>anything radical to balance the budget." If we lack the courage to do
>something radical, the chance of escape is very small.

The scenario did contain something radical (by current federal
government fiscal practice):  a freeze on real program spending.

-- 
at Bell-Northern Research
voice:        (613) 765-2739
Canada Post:  P.O. Box 3511, Station C, Ottawa, Canada, K1Y 4H7
I do not claim that BNR holds these views.
From: david@cats.ucsc.edu (David Wright)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: Inflation
Date: 5 Jan 1993 23:06:23 GMT
Organization: University of California; Santa Cruz
NNTP-Posting-Host: si.ucsc.edu


In article <1993Jan5.152354.16686@hemlock.cray.com> rja@mahogany126.cray.com (Russ Anderson) writes:
|
|In article <38124@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu|, jfh@beach.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky) writes:

|From "Free to Choose" by Milton & Rose Friedman, p257:
|
|  You can see why John Maynard Keynes, in discussing the inflations after
|  World War I, wrote: "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning 
|  the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.  The process
|  engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction,
|  and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
|  (John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace",(1920) p 236)
|
|| I personally prefer the Austrian school of Economics as espoused by
|| von Mises, von Hayek, Henry Hazlitt, Murray Rothbard, George Reisman,
|| etc.
|
|I don't see how their views differ with Keynes.  Could you elaborate?

Keynes would later recant his conventional views of economics that
appear in his earlier works. Worse yet, what has come to be thought of
as Keynesianism is a total disregard to inflation and believing in a
inflation/unemployment tradeoff: that is, you can get permanent rising
output from inflating the money supply and rising prices.

-- 
"There is nothing in the marginal conditions that     
    distinguish a mountain from a mole hill"            
                      Kenneth Boulding                             

					All comments  are mine---(David Wright) 
						david@cats.ucsc.edu.
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: whg@inel.gov (Bill Gray)
Subject: Re: Surviving Hyper-Inflation
Organization: Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 93 01:16:04 GMT

In article <1993Jan7.165839.12639@bnr.ca>, bucknerb@bnr.ca (Brent Buckner) writes:
|> In article <1993Jan7.155202.28783@Arco.COM> dprjdg@inetg1.ARCO.COM (John Grasham) writes:
|> > ...
|> 
|> >I myself am more interested in how to survive personally in a
|> >hyper-inflationary period.  What to do?  ...

When asked during the course of an interview: "how can we protect ourselves
from inflation?",  Milton Friedmand is said to have replied: "you can't, spend
it all on riotous living.

|> 
|> Other Reading:  _The Great Reckoning_ by Davidson and ?
                                                        ^^^
                                                         William Rees-Mogg																					
|> ...

========== long legal disclaimer follows, press n to skip ===========

Neither the United States Government or the Idaho National Engineering
Laboratory or any of their employees, makes any warranty, whatsoever,
implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility regarding any
information, disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe
privately owned rights.  No specific reference constitutes or implies
endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States
Government or the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory.  The views and
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United States Government or the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory,
and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: canright@convex.com (Robert Canright)
Subject: Re: "Death of America"
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 17:41:22 GMT
Organization: Engineering, CONVEX Computer Corp., Richardson, Tx., USA
X-Disclaimer: This message was written by a user at CONVEX Computer
              Corp. The opinions expressed are those of the user and
              not necessarily those of CONVEX.

In <1993Jan8.010630.25706@inel.gov> whg@inel.gov (Bill Gray) writes:

>I have it on very good authority (Yogi Berra,  no less) that "prediction is
>hard,  especially when it's about the future."  Computer scientists have less
>excuse than Economists.  How often do programming projects,  which are by
>definition of finite compass,  and ususally of bounded complexity utterly
>fail to work out as predicted?   We computer nerds should be humble in the
>face of the predictive power of Economics.

Come on now, confess!  The inability to predict software projects in a
business setting is really a matter of being unwilling to confess the true
cost!  Get management a little pregnant & they've got to let the project
come to full term, right?  This is especially true in govenment/military
environments.
Xref: sparky sci.econ:9634 misc.invest:16137 rec.games.mud.misc:1886
From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Interest in economic statistics discusssions
Summary: Numbers, anyone?
Keywords: Forecasting, data analysis
Organization: Pitzer College
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 20:54:41 GMT

I would like to get an informal feel for the number of readers of 
current economic statistics that are on this newsgroup.  Please e-mail to 
this address answers to the following three questions:

	-- Do you obtain U.S. economic statistics by computer or fax on day 
of release?

	-- Are you employed in any capacity to analyze such numbers?

	-- Would you have an interest in a newsgroup that would be a forum 
for discussion of current economic statistics?

	On this basis I would like to assess whether a new newsgroup (
perhaps titled sci.econ.forecast or sci.econ.stat) would be worth proposing, 
or whether it may exist somewhere else in the net.  The focus of such a 
group would be decidedly less political than sci.econ is currently.

	Not that I mind politics;  I just am looking for a new information 
source.
Organization: TECHNION - Israel Institute of Technology.
Date: Wednesday, 6 Jan 1993 16:56:39 IST
From: <IERVA01@TECHNION.BITNET>
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Factorial analysis



Alexander Vaninsky, D.Sc.
Fac. of Industrial Engineering
Technion, Haifa,Israel
32161 Haifa, Israel
Fax: (972-4)-235-194
Tel. (972-4)-29-28-51(w)
Email: ierva01@techunix.technion.ac.il.bitnet

     I am interested in setting up contacts with mathematicians,
statisticians and economists that are interested in providing
factorial analysis of economic systems using deterministic
approach and correspondingly relatively small amounts of data.
     Mathematical statement  of  the  problem  is  the  following.
State of economic system is described as a system of equations
F(X)=0, where X is a vector, and F, vector function. Particularly
these equations may be regression ones. Objective function Z = f(X)
is supposed to be given and the system is supposed to move from
initial to final state along curve L due equations of dynamics. The
curve L may be the optimal trajectory or may correspond to economic
hypothesis on dynamics of Xi-es.
     The problem that is solved is decomposition of increase of Z
into components corresponding to every of elements Xi.
    Supposing Z equal consequently to Xi i=1...n, we obtain
decomposition of every of them into components conditioned by every
of other Xi-s. If L is optimal trajectory we provide post optimized
analysis.
     Mathematical contents of this problem  derives from  necessity
of special axiomatic system for obtaining of substantial solution.
This solution in its turn have many interesting  and important
applications in practice. Particularly, I have positive experience
of its usage in project evaluation, in developing of business games
for training of managers and in lecturing courses in the Moscow
State University.
From: erc@netcom.com (Eric Smith)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: "Death of America"
Date: 8 Jan 93 19:18:20 GMT
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)

In article <canright.726514882@convex.com> canright@convex.com (Robert Canright) writes:
>Come on now, confess!  The inability to predict software projects in a
>business setting is really a matter of being unwilling to confess the true
>cost!  Get management a little pregnant & they've got to let the project
>come to full term, right?  This is especially true in govenment/military
>environments.


The inability to predict software projects is caused by the fact that there
are unknown factors which can't be taken into account until they are known.
The best honest estimates have a very large stated error tolerance.  For
example, we could say a particular project has a 95% probability of taking
less than one year, and a 25% probability of taking less than one month.
There is nothing flippant or lazy about such an estimate, because it's
really the best honest estimate for a project of that size.

The real problem is that managers tend to feel very insecure with such
estimates, and tend to insist on more precision.  But if the person making
the estimate gives a worst case estimate to be safe, the manager thinks
it is extravagant padding motivated by the fact that the person giving
the estimate has nothing to lose from wasting time.  So, what usually
happens in a case like that is that the 25% probability of completing the
project in one month becomes a one-month estimate, period.

Thus, using those figures, 75% of all software projects like that would
tend to be late.  Sometimes as much as 1100% late.
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: ecpzp@csv.warwick.ac.uk (Mr V A Noronha)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: Handbook suggestion:  game theory
Date: 12 Jan 1993 22:25:32 -0000
Organization: Computing Services, University of Warwick, UK
NNTP-Posting-Host: clover.csv.warwick.ac.uk

In article <C0Jw6C.44p@NeoSoft.com> claird@NeoSoft.com (Cameron Laird) writes:
>Someone asked recently who are the good people in
>game theory, and a respondent correctly observed
>that there are knowledgeable folk in many places.


There are a number of fine game theory books.

My favorite, and probably the most comprehensive, is

Drew Fudenberg and Jean Tirole, "Game Theory", 1991 MIT Press


Alternatives include:-

Robert Gibbons, "Game Theory for Applied Economists", 1992

David Kreps, "A Course in Microeconomic Theory", 1990 (part 3, I think)

Roger Myerson's book on game theory


A brief survey can be found as chapter 5 of "Handbook of Industrial Economics", ed
Richard Schmalensee & Robert Willig (survey by Fudenberg and Tirole), North Holland

Alternatively see chapter 11 of Tirole's "Theory of Industrial Organization", MIT Press

Hope this helps.

If anyone requires full details of any of these titles, I am happy to send them directly.
From: beers@theory.TC.Cornell.EDU (Jim Beers)
Subject: GDP and GNP 
Organization: Cornell Theory Center
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 21:51:17 GMT

I have an elementary question, 

What is the difference between GDP and GNP?
Why is everyone talking about GDP these days, rather then GNP.

Jim
From: ashish+@andrew.cmu.edu (Ashish Arora)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: Inflation
Date: 12 Jan 93 09:06:18 GMT
Article-I.D.: andrew.UfIlOei00iUx84Y2Iy
Organization: Heinz School, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA

Excerpts from netnews.sci.econ: 10-Jan-93 Re: Inflation by David Michael
Wright@cat 
> I really don't understand the problem here. Take an economy driven by
> rational expectations with a given random distribution with known
> varience and mean:--a common assumption. Now, on average, people will
> make the correct amount of investment and consumption, that is, the
> plans of all agents will be consistent. But, in any given period, it
> will not be the case, there will be an error. If we make the frequency
> of this variable fairly long, then we get flucuations in output that
> corrospond to Keynesian business cycles, to some degree, and you have
> the same "type" of uncertainity that Lucas and conventional economists
> use to model the economy. I see no real problem. Now, there might be a
> problem with policy implementation: why would the government err less
> than the private agents? And so policy may be impotent as the New
> Classical might suggest, but we can always assume assymetric
> information if need be. 

(harkening back to grad school macro)
Even though stochastic shocks to "the production function", with some
serial correlation, will give you cyclical fluctuations in output, this
does not quite give you the corresponding variations in employment. 
After all, if the only problem were changes in output, a developed
industrial economy could probably live with it.  To generate output
fluctuations, one needs more, and from what I can remember of the
Prescott and X papers, the something more that is typically provided is
less than convincing.  

cheers
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: whg@inel.gov (Bill Gray)
Subject: Re: "Death of America"
Organization: Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 93 22:31:00 GMT

In article <canright.726514882@convex.com>, canright@convex.com (Robert Canright) writes:

[In reply to my post]
 
|> Come on now, confess!  The inability to predict software projects in a
|> business setting is really a matter of being unwilling to confess the true
|> cost!  Get management a little pregnant & they've got to let the project
|> come to full term, right?  This is especially true in govenment/military
                              ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 
|> environments.
   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Generally,  I don't distinguish degrees of truth,  but I doubt Mr Canright
realizes how very truly he has spoken.

========== long legal disclaimer follows, press n to skip ===========

Neither the United States Government or the Idaho National Engineering
Laboratory or any of their employees, makes any warranty, whatsoever,
implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility regarding any
information, disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe
privately owned rights.  No specific reference constitutes or implies
endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States
Government or the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory.  The views and
opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the
United States Government or the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory,
and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.
Newsgroups: sci.econ