From: malenovi@plains.NoDak.edu (Malenovic Nikola V.)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.yugoslavia
Subject: Mihalj Kertes, State Security Member ( VREME NDA 5 Sep 1992 )
Date: 5 Sep 92 18:12:59 GMT
Article-I.D.: plains.20178
Organization: North Dakota Higher Education Computing Network


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     "Vreme" News Digest No. 49                             August 31, 1992
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    Mihalj Kertes, State Security Member
    ------------------------------------


                              FLEXING OF MUSCLES


    Of all  that which Prime Minister  Panic has promised, perhaps  the most
    dangerous is  the promise that  war criminals and  those responsible for
    ethnic cleansing will be arrested and punished.

    If  Yugoslav  Prime  Minister  Milan  Panic  does  manage to sack Mihalj
    Kertes, Deputy  of Minister of  police, then that  will be the  greatest
    result  of  the  London  Conference.  All  that  has  been agreed on and
    achieved there  does not mean  much; all those  promises, guarantees and
    concessions will mean  little if Mr. Panic does not  manage to break the
    criminal-conspiratorial  nucleus of  Milosevic's regime  in Belgrade, in
    which  Kertes holds  one of  the key  positions. This  move, made on the
    side-lines,  seems at  first glance  unconnected to  the Conference, and
    could result in  making Kertes a leading figure,  something not achieved
    by all those cameras and floodlights.

    It was only after Panic had  sent instructions to his Minister of police
    Pavle Bulatovic demanding Kertes's dismissal,  did most of us learn that
    he had been Bulatovic's deputy and head of the federal security service,
    i.e. the secret police. Kertes,  a man whose frequent public appearances
    had made many laugh and who had even been somewhat forgotten, had come a
    long way.

    It seems  that his place  in the Serbian  Parliament had only  served to
    give him the necessary immunity, as  Kertes was rarely seen there. A few
    months  before becoming  the head   of a  powerful service  which leaves
    little evidence  and witnesses of its  activities, Kertes proved himself
    in the field, mostly in Bosnia-Herzegovina. If there is any truth to the
    numerous stories, the suspicions and indications, Kertes could prove one
    of  the  main  organizers  of  this  dirty  war;  he,  at  any  rate, is
    well-informed of secrets concerning  arms, various uniforms, regular and
    irregular units and their affairs.

    Apart from  a proven ruthlessness,  Kertes owes his  career to the  fact
    that  with him  around, Serbian  President Slobodan  Milosevic could see
    himself  as a  wise and  reserved  politician,  and this  is the  key to
    understanding the promotion  of leaders such as Vojislav  Seselj and his
    party (leader of the Serbian Radical  Party - SRS). Finally, and this is
    very  important,  Milosevic  could  always  count  on  Kertes's absolute
    loyalty. Milosevic made him. Kertes knew  how to let Milosevic know that
    he owed him his success and would die for him.

    If it should prove that Milosevic is forced to sacrifice Kertes, it will
    be a sure sign that he has  lost the power battle which has just started
    and which must  be finished before the elections.  Because, if everybody
    stays put, and  if it is not clear that  President of Yugoslavia Dobrica
    Cosic and Prime Minister Panic have managed to strip Milosevic of power,
    the uninformed people could, once again, vote for the Socialist Party of
    Serbia (SPS).

    The main protagonists are probably already aware of the results of their
    secret, nauseating, manoeuvring battles.  Perhaps a sufficient number of
    generals  have turned  away from  Milosevic for  personal, not political
    reasons, making it easier on Cosic  who does not want Milosevic to leave
    humiliated and broken  as that could cause shock  waves and perhaps even
    bring into question Milosevic's political and war legacy, something that
    Cosic holds dear.  Cosic would probably prefer to make  a nice speech at
    his departure. One full of respect and thanks.

    However, Milosevic  does not seem to  like all this, but  he has already
    met with defeat over POLITIKA (a Belgrade daily). Independent journalism
    seems  to have  gained a  little, but  it is  more likely  that POLITIKA
    simply  changed its  management. Now  they want  to deprive Milosevic of
    something bigger -- Kertes and the  secret police. If the whole thing is
    not spontaneous, then it is a cunning scheme - to hit from London, while
    the  Conference is  in session.  The host  is not  at home  and Panic is
    telling the world  and Serbia why his hands are  tied. Milosevic is weak
    in London, Panic at his strongest.

    In Belgrade, all  are silent for the time being,  at least all those who
    could  say  something.  Good  news  or  rumours  are coming from London.
    Milosevic has allegedly demanded of  Panic's minister Bulatovic to leave
    Kertes where he is and disobey  the Prime Minister. This was followed by
    orders  from London  for Kertes's  arrest, but  to make  the muddle even
    greater, Kertes was in London at  the time. While this ill-omened debate
    was under way, a real war was going on behind the scenes, one from which
    all except Kertes expect to return  home safely, on condition of course,
    that Milosevic agrees to Cosic's speech  -- when the time is right. And,
    finally, we need  not worry about Kertes, he can  after all, always call
    on his immunity as a deputy.

    Panic  explained that  his decision  to dismiss  Kertes was  based on  a
    disagreement  with Kertes's  policy of  promoting ethnic  cleansing, his
    last  task  as  Milosevic's  strongman.  The  matter obviously refers to
    Hrtkovci, where  Kertes seems to have  been the main patron  of Seselj's
    patriots who expelled the local  Croats. The following links have become
    indisputably  clear:  Milosevic-Kertes-Seselj,  or  rather  the  SPS-SDB
    (state security)-SRS (Serbian Radical Party).

    Conjectures of possible  showdowns and a civil war  in Serbia still lack
    serious  arguments, but  are attaining  a somewhat  realistic structure,
    epecially in the case of Kertes. The main mystery concerns the amount of
    arms which have  been issued to Seselj's, Arkan's  and similar groups in
    Serbia and Montenegro. Does Kertes or  anybody else for that matter have
    any  evidence? The  majority of   these men  certainly have  some combat
    experience  and that  is living   proof of  Serbia's involvement  in the
    Bosnian war.  International pressure resulted in  the withdrawal of many
    (all?), but not  in their disarming. Could they now  become some kind of
    reserve  army of  Slobodan Milosevic,  in the  event that  the real army
    refuses to take orders. Is Mihalj Kertes the secret Supreme Commander of
    this secret army? Can these people  progress from the events in Hrtkovci
    to attempting a coup in Belgrade?

    I am inclined  to believe that  this violence will  not come about,  and
    that all  will remain at  the level of  a flexing of  muscles. The whole
    matter  pertains to  the internal   breaking up  of an,  until recently,
    united movement  which also means  that both sides  know all about  each
    other. But, we  must wait for them all  to return from London and  for a
    summary of the Conference to be made  in Serbia. It could be harmful for
    Cosic and Panic if an impresson were created that they have capitulated,
    while sanctions have  not been lifted. If, however,  all is presented as
    being Milosevic's fault and that things  could be put right without him,
    then  he is  finished. Which  version  will  be enforced  on the  public
    depends on the distribution of  influence among the media, but Milosevic
    has certainly lost because of the  very fact that the Conference was not
    a complete disaster.

    Of all  that which Prime Minister  Panic has promised, perhaps  the most
    dangerous is  the promise that  war criminals and  those responsible for
    ethnic  cleansing will  be arrested  and punished.  In carrying out this
    promise, Panic has  already met with fierce resistance  in Hrtkovci. For
    the  present,  the  federal  government  probably  does  not have enough
    strength to carry things out to the  end. There are too many guilty men,
    they have arms  and could use them. It is  important, however, that they
    should  realize  that  the  times  are  changing,  and  that their great
    protector is no longer what he once was.

    There is nothing  to keep Mihalj Kertes from  returning to Backa Palanka
    and a quiet life  down memory lane. They say that he  used to be fond of
    fishing. If he is allowed to keep his pistol, he will be able to fire it
    at somebody's wedding -- for old times' sake. But, there will not be any
    speeches for Mihalj Kertes.
                                                              Stojan Cerovic


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     "Vreme" News Digest No. 49                             August 31, 1992
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