From: mykes@amiga0.SF-Bay.ORG (Mike Schwartz)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc
Subject: Re: Perot's October Surprise
Distribution: usa
X-NewsSoftware: GRn 1.16e (7/4/92) by Mike Schwartz & Michael B. Smith
Date: 20 Jul 92 18:02:46 PST
Organization: Amiga makes it possible

In article <3967@news.duke.edu> eyc@acpub.duke.edu (EMIL CHUCK) writes:
> Jeff Young is a Sunday late night talk show host on a local FM station
> here who enjoys talking politics and news of the week. Last night, he
> noticed (as did I) that when HR Perot pulled the plug on his
> un-candidacy, that he did NOT tell all his volunteers running petition
> drives to stop putting his name of the ballots or removing his name from
> the 24 states that have certified him. Instead he told them to continue
> their work and finish the job! Now, he and I were very skeptical of why
> Perot would do such if he were really serious about pulling himself out
> of contention. The following is Jeff Young's premonition:
> 	Perot is going to re-enter the race in October, saying "We've
> heard these goofballs for two months, and they haven't been saying a
> thing! Since my name is already on the ballots, I'm gonna run again!" He
> would have saved his money from being spent on the campaign, had a
> respite from the media and the campaign scrutiny, and avoided any
> negative characterisations of him from both the Democrats and the
> Republicans. (And I do mean BOTH sides. Ron Brown, Bill Clinton, Bill
> Bradley, Dan Quayle have all criticized him. I'm sure I'm leaving a ton
> of people off this list.)

I do not feel that Perot is out of the race at all.  I feel he is running
a very unorthodox and very effective campaign.  He hires the only winning
democratic campaign manager to win an election since 1968 and the best
republican campaign manager, too.  And he pretty much ignored them until
he got a chance to fire them or make them quit.  All this to make himself
look even more like an outsider who will really make change.  I wrote my
predictions about the election results (Bush wins Big, Perot 2nd, Clinton
distant 3rd) before Perot pulled out of the race.  Yet I still maintain
that with 100% surity, the results will still be the same.

When Perot does get back in the race, he will receive a major surge in
popularity, but his only hope is that this popularity doesn't wane
before the election.  He must be very careful not to shoot his wad
too soon.  On the other hand, if he waits too long, his bounce in
popularity will not be as strong.  But he will get lots of votes,
and he will bring out many voters who did not vote in recent elections.
His voters will be defections from the Clinton campaign (another one
of my predictions looking even more correct :).  Note that the poll
results after Perot pulled out and Clinton was nominated gave Clinton
a much bigger boost than expected (Perot people changing over,
temporarily).

And for the record, I have never ever voted for president for the
man who did not win :)

> --
> Emil Thomas Chuck		DUKE BLUE DEVILS: 1992 ACC CHAMPIONS!
> Biomedical Engineer 1993	1992 EAST REGIONAL CHAMPIONS!!
> Duke University, Durham, NC	AND 1992 NCAA NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!!!

--
Amiga programmer of: GRn, MailMinder, Budokan, Beyond Dark Castle, Dark Castle
Sega Genesis programmer of: Dick Tracy and Marble Madness.
Mike Schwartz  (ames!zorch!amiga0!mykes or mykes@amiga0.sf-bay.org)
1124 Fremont Ave.
Los Altos, CA 94024

Xref: sparky talk.politics.misc:35263 alt.politics.clinton:271