From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 1992 07:56:13 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              02 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 246, 09/02/92
10.7 FLUX=104.5  90-AVG=124        SSN=077      BKI=1123 4533  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=6.0E+05  FLU10=1.7E+04  PKI=2113 3443  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=008,008,018,030,064,081,033,031   DEV-AVG=034 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.8   @ 1718UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.5   @ 0754UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1035UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1950UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1840UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2150UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55454NT @ 1315UT   BOUTF-MIN=55403NT @ 1704UT  BOUTF-AVG=55438NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+150NT@ 1733UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-002NT@ 2339UT  G7-AVG=+088,+037,+013
GOES6-MAX=P:+152NT@ 1843UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-037NT@ 1747UT  G6-AVG=+098,-014,+028
 FLUXFCST=STD:107,107,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/025,040,020
    KFCST=4344 4333 4344 4333  27DAY-AP=019,043   27DAY-KP=2434 4333 3347 7443
 WARNINGS=*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued very low.  Region 7272 (S11W55) began to grow
more rapidly during the day and was responsible for several subflares.  The
largest event observed was a class B4.8 subflare at 17:18 UT.

     Region 7270 (S09E13) stabilized in growth and is presently approximately
100 millionths in area.  The group may be capable of supporting weak C-class
events.

     Region 7272 is 140 millionths in area and is growing in a DAI optical
configuration.  This is the largest region presently visible and appears to
have the best potential for producing small C-class subflares.  Nothing
significant is expected.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity should continue very low to low.  Small C-class flares
are possible in Regions 7270 or 7272.  The other two visible spot groups are
incapable of producing any notable levels of activity at the present time.

     The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  The
field was mostly quiet early in the UT day and gradually became increasingly
disturbed after 15:00 UT.  Periods of minor storming were observed after
15:00 UT.  The source of this activity appears to be a well placed coronal
hole.  The field is expected to continue mostly active with periods of minor
to major storming possible over the middle and high latitude regions.  There
is a chance levels of activity could surpass the minor storm threshold over
the next 48 to 72 hours, although this remains to be seen.

     A middle latitude auroral activity watch was issued at 17:30 UT and will
remain valid until at least 19:00 UT on 04 September.  Conditions are
becoming increasingly favorable for observations of auroral activity from
middle latitude regions.  At the present time, activity has been observed as
far south as Casper, Wyoming (42.6 N geographic latitude).  Minor equatorward
expansion of the auroral oval has taken place.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions early in the
UT day.  Signal instabilities began to become more of a factor over some
middle and high latitude signal paths after 15:00 UT, although conditions
were still fairly good.  More significant degradation is expected over the
next 48 hours (on 03 and 04 September) as levels of geomagnetic and auroral
activity increase in magnitude.  Conditions are expected to become generally
poor over the high and polar latitude paths, and good to occassionally fair
over the middle latitudes.  Low and equatorial paths should retain generally
good propagation.  Conditions may not begin to improve until 05 or 06
September.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7267  N03W72  119  0020 BXO  04  002 BETA
7270  S09E13  034  0100 CAO  09  018 BETA
7271  S09E01  046  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7272  S11W53  100  0140 DAI  07  015 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 SEPTEMBER TO 05 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7256 S15   308
7262 N17   315


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1129 1130 1130                          230
 2012 2016 2016                          350
 2233 2233 2234                         1200


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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