From: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu (Rich Winkel)
Subject: South Africa Political Update 12/13/92
Followup-To: alt.activism.d
Originator: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu
Organization: PACH
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 07:04:26 GMT

/** reg.safrica: 212.0 **/
** Topic: SA Political Update 13 December 199 **
** Written  7:53 am  Dec 13, 1992 by sapp in cdp:reg.safrica **
From: Southern Africa Partnership Project <sapp>
Subject: SA Political Update 13 December 1992

SOUTH AFRICA POLITICAL UPDATE   13 December 1992

Chris Benner
US-SA Sister Community Project
PO Box 5328 Johannesburg 2000
ph: (011) 834-1677 fax: 834-8385
Email: sapp@igc.org

NOTE:  This will be the last political update from me until 15
January 1993.  I'll be taking a bit of a holiday, but from the
beginning of the year I will be back.  


I.   APLA ATTACKS CAUSE BIG STIR

     The Azanian People's Liberation Army (APLA), the military
wing of the Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC), has claimed responsi-
bility for a number of recent attacks on white civilians in the
Eastern Cape Region of the country.  The attacks have drawn
widespread condemnation and put a halt to consultations between
the PAC and the government.  There has been some speculation as
to whether APLA is in fact responsible for the attacks, but it
appears that the attacks may be a sign of internal divisions
within the ranks of the PAC.

          Four Killed in Attack on Golf Club

     While there have been a number of recent small attacks on
farmers in the Eastern Cape Region, the attack that drew nation-
wide attention was a well-coordinated and professional attack of
a Golf Club House in King William's Town, near the scene of the
September Bisho massacre.  Using hand grenades and automatic
weapons, the attackers killed four people and injured several. 
This was followed several days later by a bomb blast in a steak
house in Queenstown, about a 2 hours drive north, in which 19
people were injured, one of whom died later from his wounds.  

     Initially the response from APLA and the PAC was inconsis-
tent.  A local spokesperson in the Eastern Cape claimed APLA was
responsible, while a national spokesperson denied any involve-
ment.  Eventually though, APLA's position became clear that they
were behind the attack, and that it was part of a campaign to
step up their armed struggle by including 'soft targets'.  The
PAC has refused to confirm or deny APLA's involvement, saying
that APLA is organizationally and constitutionally separate from
the PAC and therefore they can't comment.

          Attacks Condemned

     The attacks have been condemned by the government, and
international observers, as well as by the ANC.  The government
and the PAC had been on the verge of important discussions about
a future dispensation aimed at including the PAC in the negotia-
tions process.  But the government has called off discussions
until the PAC clarifies it's stance and calls an end to such
attacks.

     There has been some controversy, however, as to whether APLA
was in fact responsible for the attacks.  APLA has a history of
claiming responsibility for attacks which were later shown to
have nothing to do with them.  There has also been skepticism
that APLA had the capacity to carry out these professional
attacks--in the past there have been jokes about APLA consisting
of nothing but two men with a fax machine in Dar es Salaam
writing press releases.  There was also an initial theory that
the attack on the golf club in King William's Town was undertaken
by Ciskei Defense Force members, aimed at killing a Judge who's
been leading an inquest into the killings of former Ciskei leader
Charles Sebe, a killing which current Ciskei leader Oupa Gqozo is
heavily implicated in.

     But the latest thinking appears to be that APLA is in fact
responsible for the attacks, and that it represents some serious
divisions within the PAC camp.  At it's national congress in
April this year, the PAC decided to pursue negotiations as part
of their strategy.  This is said to have angered militants in the
organization, who supposedly launched the attacks to undermine
the negotiations with the government.  In any case, the PAC's
equivocating response to the attacks has undermined their negoti-
ations approach and represents a victory for those arguing armed
struggle.


II.  NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE VIA BILATERAL MEETINGS

     The government and the ANC held their long awaited for
bilateral discussion last week.  For four days, high level
delegations from both organizations disappeared behind closed
doors to discuss the future of multi-lateral negotiations and
plans for a constituent assembly.

     Both the ANC and the government have been very quiet about
what agreements were actually reached at the meeting, apparently
in an attempt to avoid appearing to be excluding other parties
from the process.  Their joint statement released after the
meeting merely stresses that they were trying to come to mutual
understanding on key issues which they would then submit to a
future restructured and more representative CODESA.  They also
stress that no other party would be bound by agreements reached
between the ANC and the government, which merely "represent joint
efforts at facilitating the peaceful negotiations process."  The
meeting will be continued in the second half of January, with
discussions continuing in the meantime, with an aim to reconven-
ing multi-lateral negotiations by February or March.

     While no formal agreement has been released, both Mandela
and De Klerk have made statements in recent days indicating that
"if all parties cooperate", elections for a constituent assembly
could he held by the end of 1993.  If true, this represents a
modification of the government's previous position that elections
could only be held at the earliest in March 1994.  

     A series of other bilateral meetings between various parties
have either occurred or are planned from the coming weeks.  This
included meetings between the Government and Inkatha, the Demo-
cratic Party and the PAC, the PAC and the government (until the
recent attacks), and between the government and the homelands of
Bophuthatswana, Ciskei and Kwa-Zulu.  All discussions are aimed
at ironing out difference to make discussions smoother once
multi-lateral negotiations get underway again.

          Buthelezi Proposes Natal's Own Constitution

     Meanwhile, on Tuesday 1 December, Gatsha Buthelezi released
plans for a proposed new constitution for the Natal province,
with a veiled threat that the region would secede from a new
South Africa, regardless of the interests of other South Afri-
cans.  The proposal, approved by the kwa-Zulu legislative author-
ity, would give Natal strong regional autonomy.  By claiming that
he might pursue such a plan, regardless of input from the rest of
the country, Buthelezi angered many, and increased tension in the
violence-torn province.  

     The proposal itself basically called for a separate consti-
tution for Natal, providing for strong regional autonomy and the
possible succession of the province to form a separate country. 
Buthelezi tried to get support for the proposal from the kwaZulu-
Natal Joint Executive Forum (a body set-up to coordinate
administration between kwaZulu and Natal), and called for a
referendum throughout Natal on whether people support this
constitution or not.  Buthelezi does not have the power to call
such a referendum himself, and the proposal is unlikely to go any
further than being presented as an option at future multi-lateral
negotiations.  But the general principal of strong regional
autonomy is supported by the government as well, and is likely to
get supported at future negotiations.  The proposal itself was
drafted with the assistance of two conservative constitutional
experts from the U.S., Albert Blaustein and Marios Oriani-
Ambrosini.  Blaustein works in the same law firm as Bruce Fein,
another US constitutional expert who is employed on a $40,000
monthly salary by RENAMO.


III. SOUTH AFRICA ACCUSED OF AIDING UNITA 

     At least four Southern African countries have sent protests
to Pretoria in the past couple of weeks, complaining that their
airspace has been violated by South African Defence Force planes
flying clandestine supplies to UNITA in Angola.  UNITA has been
on a military offensive since losing the recent elections in
Angola, and is said to now effectively control 65-70% of the
country.   Namibia, Botswana, Angola and Zimbabwe have all
accused South Africa of supporting UNITA in this effort.

     There are claims that the SADF flew at least 50 C130 trans-
port planes into UNITA controlled areas to unload men and sup-
plies, including tanks and G-5 cannons.  David Martin, director
of the Southern Africa Research and Documentation Center claims
that fighter planes are also providing cover for high flying
cargo aircraft supplying UNITA in northern Angola.  The Angolan
embassy has promised to provide documentary evidence of this
support, but has so far failed to do so.  However, a South Africa
aircraft with false Red Cross insignia on it was impounded at
Luena in Angola, after if flew illegally into the country.  

     UNITA's offensive is said to be a concerted strategy to win
militarily what they couldn't do via the ballot box, with an aim
to winning as much territory before January 20, when Bill Clinton
will be inaugurated as President.  There are strong expectations
that Clinton will reverse 17 years of U.S. foreign policy and
formally recognize the Angolan government.


SHORTS

1.   Miss World Competition in Sun City

     The Miss World Competition was held this weekend in the new,
R850 million Palace of the Lost City, a glitzy casino which was
just completed in Bophuthatswana next to the infamous Sun City. 
COSATU had initially called for a protest of the competition,
primarily because of Sun International's refusal to recognize
SACCAWU, the COSATU-affiliated union working in the hotel sector,
and because of Sun's plans to lay off thousands of workers. 
(Bophuthatswana outlaws the official recognition of any "South
African-based" unions.)  The protest, however, was called off,
when Sun International agreed to hold discussions with SACCAWU
over the lay-off issue.  In the competition, Miss South Africa
raised a minor row by refusing to carry the South African flag,
which she said was inappropriate during a time of transition.

2.   Jonathan Gluckman's Offices Bugged

     Jonathan Gluckman, the pathologist who earlier this year
released details of over 100 people who'd died in police custody,
discovered this week that his offices have been extensively
bugged with sophisticated equipment.  This comes in the wake of
an announcement by Law and Order Minister Hernus Kriel, who
claimed that their investigation proved that Gluckman's claims
were false, including claiming that 14 of the people that
Gluckman claims were killed are still alive.  Gluckman, however,
says that the police took numerous files that were unrelated to
his claims, and that the police either accidentally or
deliberately confused files.  He wasn't surprised by the bugging,
which he says is consistent with the general campaign to discred-
it him.  

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