From: shwake@nearside.UUCP (Raymond Shwake)
Newsgroups: comp.unix.misc,comp.sys.novell
Subject: Re: Novell to buy USL !?
Date: 25 Dec 92 20:47:37 GMT
Followup-To: comp.unix.misc
Organization: A/C International


	Let me state, for the record, that I consider this the worst bit of
news to hit the UN!X community in years. When I first came across the rumors
months ago, my first reaction was "They've got to be kidding!". Since the
suits now seem intent on proceeding, perhaps we should consider why this
won't work, and (for anti-trust reasons) shouldn't work:

	The desktop computing environment is increasingly dominated by three
corporate interests: Intel in microprocessors, Microsoft in operating systems
and applications, and Novell in networking. Novell remains the weakest of
these three, especially given its reliance on one proprietary product line.
Given Microsoft's intent to take on Novell in the networking environment
(through NT Lan Manager), Novell needs to broaden its strengths. It must
believe this purchase is in its own best interest, but I submit it goes 
against the best interests of the UN!X community.

	Both Microsoft and Novell have promoted their own proprietary
paradigms ("Windows Everywhere" and "NetWare Everywhere") while giving
Open Systems little more than perfunctory support. AT&T/USL may have been
the benevolent, if bumbling, dictator of UN!X direction over the years,
but they have helped keep the flame alive through the years. 

	Ah, some say, we need someone with the marketing savvy to keep
Microsoft from owning the world. Initial observations from the Univel
spinoff suggest Novell's divided focus and current mindset will keep it
from succeeding.

	Two aspects in particular suggest they will fail: First, their
interest in preserving the cash cow that is NetWare has already led them
to state that some NetWare functionality will *not* be supported under
UnixWare. If they hold to that intent, UnixWare will be crippled by design.
Second, their initial pricing model suggests they are not prepared to go
head-to-head with Microsoft on client pricing, which is where the standard
will be set.

	I should add that we've got some serious Anti-Trust questions to
be resolved. USL was initially to sell SVr4.2 only through OEMs (like
Consensys, Info Foundations, ESIX and others) and through the Univel joint
partnership. Novell, as sole owner of UN!X, would thus be competing against
those OEMs. One can expect, therefore, that UN!X licensing will remain
expensive.

	Finally (at least for now) I don't see competitive vendors quietly
accepting Novell's leadership of the UN!X community. Indeed, compared to the
UN!X operations of NCR, HP, DEC, IBM, Data General, et.al., Novell is a 
pip-squeak. Are they going to put their fate in Novell's hands? They may
have nothing to say about it, but USL's partners (Amdahl, Fujitsu, ICL, III,
Motorola, NEC, Oki, Olivetti, Sun, TATA and Toshiba) certainly do, though
it's not a majority say.

	From my personal perspective, I see only two sources of hope: The
first is that this Intent to Merge will unravel, as others have, as the
two parties and their partners look over the fine print. The second is that
a more aggressive Federal Trade Commission under the new administration
will see this as the anti-competitive deal it is, and nix it.

-- 

uunet!media!irscscm!nearside!shwake			shwake@rsxtech
Newsgroups: comp.unix.misc,misc.invest