From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1992 09:28:56 GMT

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 NOVEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 325, 11/20/92
10.7 FLUX=158.8  90-AVG=125        SSN=146      BKI=1101 1101  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B6.8     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=1101 1112  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=006,005,004,008,006,006,004,008   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.6   @ 0035UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.4   @ 2236UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2315UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2325UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1555UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1401UT   BOUTF-MIN=55394NT @ 1933UT  BOUTF-AVG=55413NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+103NT@ 2202UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+007NT@ 2335UT  G7-AVG=+083,+030,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 2205UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 0326UT  G6-AVG=+100,-008,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:165,165,165;SESC:165,165,165 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,020/010,015,025
    KFCST=0104 4100 0005 5000  27DAY-AP=002,005   27DAY-KP=1000 1111 2010 2121
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7345 (S19E20)
       erupted with a long duration C5.6/SF at 20/0035Z. Solar X-ray
       activity declined steadily after that. Region 7346 (S07E32)
       grew in size but remained stable. Region 7341 (S16W77)
       also stabilized.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7345 has the greatest potential for
       causing an isolated M-flare during the next several days.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for the first 24 hours, then unsettled for
       24 hours, and finally at active levels on day three due to a
       recurrent coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 21 nov-23 nov

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 nov-23 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/15
                        Minor Storm           05/10/50
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  Normal
       propagation is expected over the next 48 hours.  Degradation over the
       high and polar latitude paths is expected to commence on 22 and more
       notably on 23 November when enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity materialize due to a well placed equatorial coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7337  N06W53  138  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7340  S09W22  107  0010 BXO  06  006 BETA
7341  S16W77  162  0210 DAO  09  005 BETA
7342  S08W47  132  0050 DAO  06  007 BETA
7344  S15E01  084  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7345  S22E21  064  0340 EKO  14  029 BETA
7346  S07E32  053  0520 EAO  15  023 BETA
7343  N08W33  118                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 NOVEMBER TO 23 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7326 S06   342
7325 S16   334
7332 S22   323


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 2348 2349 2349                         1600



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/ 0749     0815     0846                LDE    C1.3   57


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
Newsgroups: sci.space.news