From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1992 08:43:42 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 324, 11/19/92
10.7 FLUX=160.9  90-AVG=125        SSN=145      BKI=0323 2211  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B6.1     FLU1=3.3E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1212 3211  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,022,014,021,017,010,008,006   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.9   @ 2029UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.2   @ 1902UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2320UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2325UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1615UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1645UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 1418UT   BOUTF-MIN=55400NT @ 1907UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+101NT@ 1924UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0804UT  G7-AVG=+075,+030,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 2111UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 2359UT  G6-AVG=+098,-007,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:165,170,175;SESC:165,170,175 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,010/010,010,015
    KFCST=2222 3222 2222 3222  27DAY-AP=003,002   27DAY-KP=1111 1111 1000 1111
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7345 (S24E33) produced
       a C9.9/2B flare at 19/2029Z that was followed by a second
       long-duration class C5.6 xray enhancement at 00:36 UT on 20
       November (the enhancement commenced near 23:00 UT on 19
       November). Minor discrete frequency radio bursts were
       associated with the flare. This region displayed no significant
       changes prior to the C9/2B flare. Region 7346 (S08E44)
       displayed minor growth and produced isolated subflares. No new
       regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7345 may produce an isolated M-class
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 20 nov-22 nov

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 nov-22 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Todays C9.9 may have been associated with a weak SWF over
       sunlit equatorial to middle latitude paths.  Good to very good
       propagation is expected to exist over the equatorial to middle
       latitude paths, while high and polar latitude signal paths
       should observe generally fair to good propagation for the next
       72 hours (through 22 November inclusive).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7337  N07W40  138  0020 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7340  S08W09  107  0010 BXO  05  008 BETA
7341  S16W65  163  0250 DAO  09  008 BETA
7342  S08W34  132  0060 DAO  07  012 BETA
7344  S16E13  085  0010 BXO  05  005 BETA
7345  S24E33  065  0330 EAI  14  022 BETA
7346  S08E44  054  0390 EAO  13  018 BETA
7339  S18W81  179                    PLAGE
7343  N08W20  118                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 NOVEMBER TO 22 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7326 S06   342
7325 S16   334


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 2018 2029 2043 7345  S28E38 C9.9  2B        150



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
68   N18E02 S04W09 N10W18 N19W02  112  ISO   POS   014 10830A
69   S10E25 S13E17 N03E12 N03E12  087  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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