From: dbd@urartu.sdpa.org (David Davidian)
Subject: Georgia, Abkhazia, Old Russia (Was Re: Turkish Businessmen in X-USSR)
Summary: a mess 
Organization: S.D.P.A. Center for Regional Studies
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 1992 14:09:15 GMT

In article <83425@ut-emx.uucp> vadim@bolvan.ph.utexas.edu (Vadim S. Kaplunovsky)
wrote an interesting article:

[VK] In article <1992Nov8.221621.17168@urartu.sdpa.org> dbd@urartu.sdpa.org 
[VK] (David  Davidian) writes, among other things:
[VK] > 
[VK] > ........................ Of course a week after the
[VK] > gas was turned on again the Chechens (read Russians) blew up a 100 meter
[VK] > section of the pipe bringing gas to both Armenia and Georgia............
[VK] > .........
[VK] > The situation in Georgia (or what will be left if it) should be of 
[VK] >concern to Turkey. The situation there is very bad. The Russians have 
[VK] > sent over 4,000 Chechens to Abkhazia to fight the Georgians simply
[VK] > because there are not enough Abkhazians to fight.............

[VK] David, please do NOT read Russians for Chechens.
[VK] Chechens are totally out of control.  Their leader Dudaev declared 
[VK] Chechenia to be independent and threatened nuclear terrorism if Russian
[VK] try to impose military rule.  In short, he is about as crazy as they come,
[VK] and while the Russian government may have difficulty getting rid of him,
[VK] it definitly does not support his, and his followers' wild actions.

Perhaps you are correct, Vadim. I base my evaluation of the situation as the
traditional Russian response to "home base trouble", that is "trouble in Mother
Russia". I found the upsurge in violence in Georgia proper came, interestingly 
enough, soon after Shevarnaze proclaimed Istanbul as the capital of the Black
Sea Economic Federation, that is, a weakening of its ties with Russia.  

[VK] In fact, blowing up the gas line was an anti-Russian act.  That Armenians
[VK] were hurt even worse was incidental, just like innocent bystanders 
[VK] sometimes get killed when two gangs are fighting each other.

The effect severing the gas line on Armenia was secondary, at best, to the 
effect it had on Georgia. The situation in Georgia is really deteriorating.
I found myself in Sochi, on the Black Sea (at Adlar airport) about five miles
from Abkhazia, and spoke with a local (non-Russian) official. He said  (at that time, about 3 weeks ago) about 65,000 Georgians have already left Abkhazia,
there are food shortages in Tiflis, Armenians are leaving Tiflis for Akhalkalak
(which is about 90% Armenian now), but are not leaving Abkhazia. Can you 
believe Georgia is hungry! This same person told me that these Chechens would
cross over the mountains from Abkhazia, enter Sochi and rob people's homes. 
Judging from the rows of Soviet attack helicopters at Adler, I suspect the 
Russians could destabilize Georgia via Abkhazia, then Ajaria, not to mention 
Ossetia, and other minorities (just how much depends on how well the Georgian 
government plays the game) and grab what it cannot intimidate Georgia out of. I
don't think I am a fatalist, however, the carnage in Georgia is unprecedented. 

[VK] As to Chechens going to Abkhasia to fight Georgians, I have no idea why are
[VK] they doing this.  Certainly not to serve any Russian agenda:  Dudayev's
[VK] main purpose (besides holding onto his own power) is getting rid of Russian
[VK] colonialism in Caucasia, and there hardly can be anything more inimical
[VK] to that purpose than turning Abkhasia into a Russian province.  Besides,
[VK] he hates Yeltsin's guts.
[VK] The only explaination I can think of, he might hate Shevarnadze even
[VK] more :-(. 

Why would Chechens fight in Abkhazia? Perhaps the question should be are there
any Chechen factions who would fight in Abkhazia, for the Russians? Sure, why 
not, especially if the Russians wanted surrogates to take control of this 
region of Georgia with its resorts, rich soil, and citrus crop. 

Dudayev may be playing with fire if he continues in his ways, especially as 
things get bad (worse) in Moscow, but fire usually seems to blow away from
Moscow. 

While in Moscow, I quite accidentally met a reporter who had spoken with
Shervarnadze just that morning. She said according to Shevarnadze, Georgia is
falling apart. He mentioned the Abkhazians had rounded up may "thousands" of
Georgians and shot them. My contact at Sochi said he had not heard of such a  
report, and further that such report may have been fabricated to facilitate the
volunteering of Georgian fighters in Tiflis. He said, in addition, there are
not enough Abkhazians to round up so many Georgians and kill them without a 
violent response by the Georgians. 

If you noticed, the periphery of "Russia" is comprised of Republics with ethnic
strife or with the "old style" folks in power. It is not surprising that Russia
still finds it appropriate to keep its borders "fluid", by surrounded with
itself with buffers it either can recognize or control.

I am certainly not opposed to peoples determining their own fates. History has
demonstrated that peaceful means towards disputes only serve the interests of
both parties, violent means serves the interests of others.


 
-- 
David Davidian dbd@urartu.sdpa.org "It has been ever thus in all things, son, 
SDPA Center for Regional Studies    Whatever we thrash we give to the wind, 
P.O. Box 382761                     We too have been blown by the world's wind
Cambridge, MA 02238                 The chaff is gone but the grain remains."