From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 09:52:31 GMT

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 351, 12/16/92
10.7 FLUX=150.7  90-AVG=136        SSN=151      BKI=1222 1211  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B5.3     FLU1=3.0E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1322 1211  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=005,015,012,015,007,011,006,006   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.7   @ 0605UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.6   @ 0245UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1525UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2250UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2310UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1220UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 1517UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1937UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+101NT@ 1924UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0841UT  G7-AVG=+071,+027,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 2000UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 0148UT  G6-AVG=+090,-005,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,145,140;SESC:150,145,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/010,015,022
    KFCST=2233 2223 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=006,004   27DAY-KP=1212 3211 1101 1112
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-1337UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7360 (S19W62) produced the
       largest activity with a C4/SF flare at 16/0325UT and a C4.7/1F
       flare at 16/0605UT. A surprise C1/1F flare was also seen at
       S22E40 in an unnumbered Region (SN15). Region 7371 (S11W24) was
       assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7360 and 7362 (S07W76) have the best chance
       of C-class activity. Region 7362 has a small chance of an
       isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.
       Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels
       for the remainder of the period because of a well positioned
       coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 17 dec-19 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 dec-19 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/30/35
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the last
       24 hours.  Minor signal degradation will be possible over the
       next three days due to anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic
       activity.  High and polar latitude paths will be affected the
       most.  Conditions should be least stable during the local night
       hours over these paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7360  S19W62  164  0190 DAO  10  010 BETA
7362  S06W76  178  0570 DKO  10  013 BETA
7363  S09W33  135  0050 CAO  07  009 BETA
7364  N08W37  139  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7366  S11W09  111  0020 CRO  06  012 BETA
7368  S32E10  092  0060 DAO  06  009 BETA
7369  S05E41  061  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7370  S08E53  049  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7371  S10W25  127  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 DECEMBER TO 19 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7354 S23   005
7348 N11   341
7352 N19   341
7350 S20   337


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0223 0223 0223                          340



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
16/ 0711     0800     0847       S22E40   LDE    C2.2   96


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
Newsgroups: sci.space.news