From: tobis@meteor.wisc.edu (Michael Tobis)
Newsgroups: sci.environment
Subject: Re: Gallup Poll on Global Warming
Date: 6 Sep 92 22:17:31 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: University of Wisconsin, Meteorology and Space Science

In article <2401@unet.UUCP> philg@bozo.uucp (Phil Geller) writes:
>There was a column by George Will in the September 4, 1992 San Francisco
>Chronicle slamming Albert Gore's book "Earth in the Balance".  That
>was no surprise, but in the article he mentions a Gallup Poll on 
>global warming...
>
>"Gore knows, or should know before pontificating, that a recent Gallup
>Poll of scientists concerned with global climate research shows that
>53 percent do not believe warming has occurred and another 30 percent
>are uncertain."
>
>Does anyone know the details of this poll?  Is there more to it than
>George is Willing to admit?  

One of the most important points that needs to be made on this subject
is that the PREDICTION of GLOBAL WARMING IS ***NOT*** BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
OF TRENDS BUT RATHER ON ESTABLISHED PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES of radiation,
absorption and energy conservation.

Clearly Will has distorted the question. If the question was "has global
warming occurred?", the answer is clearly yes, and 100% of informed
opinion would say so - it is much warmer now than in the last ice age.
(semantic quibblers read 'glacial maximum' for 'ice age'.)

If the question is "has global warming occurred in the last 100 years",
again there is no serious doubt. The warming is between 0.5 and 1 degree K.

If the question is "has global warming exceeding statistical variation
occurred in the last 100 years", the answer seems to be yes (Wigley & Raper, 
1990, _Nature_ vol 344 pp 324 ff), but this is different from identifying a 
cause, and this result is perhaps less widely known than it should be.

If the question is "is the observed warming certainly due to anthropogenic
greenhouse warming" the answer will be more controversial, and this is
presumably something like the form of the question that was asked. There
has been some controversy on this question, but it is more of interest
to politicians and journalists than to climatologists. Most climatologists
expect 95% statistical reliability of the hypothesis to emerge at the end of
this decade, depending on whose data you use. Some think that the
extrinsics of the situation, including the solid theoretical foundation
of the prediction, warrant a weaker statistical test, and these are in
the minority. Note that Will's quote, it seems to me, indicates that 17%
of those polled believe that it is CERTAIN (a word not used lightly by
scientists) that anthropogenic warming HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

While I have not seen the poll in question, I can refer you to "A Survey
of Informed Opinion Regarding the Nature and Reality of a Global Greenhouse
Warming", 1990, _Climate Change_ vol 1 p 4.

Out of 22 respondents, to the question "On a scale of zero to 10 (where zero
indicates complete disbelief) how confident are you with the proposition
that there is some evidence that an anthropogenically induced greenhouse
effect has already received at least minimal observational verification?"

response	number of respondents
0-3		4
4-6		10
7-10		8

BUT

To the question "On a scale of zero to 10 (where zero indicates complete
disbelief) what is your rating of the ultimate reality of a significant
climate change, resembling current conceptions, that can be confidently
ascribed to anthropogenically produced radiatively active gases?"

response	number of respondents
0-3		2
4-6		2
7-10		18

Note also that the meaning of 'recent poll' is very much at issue here, as the
last five years have shown an alarming increase in the rate of increase
of global mean temperature. A poll of informed opinion in 1987 and 1992 on
this question would probably show markedly different results.

I have not yet read Senator Gore's book (The 'Quality' Paperback Book Club
has both of my last two orders back-ordered) but in my experience, while
his knowledge is not sophisticated, it is well-informed and not out of 
line with the scientific consensus on global change issues.

Also please note that while a minority of scientists dispute the likelihood
of large anthropogenic global temperature change, they do not dispute the 
significance of the anthropogenic change in the transparency of the atmosphere 
to the infrared.

Rather, they believe that changes in cloud populations will be the dominant
result. While this would avoid the part of the problem due to sea level
rise, it would nevertheless imply large shifts in weather patterns.

George Will has selected his data to support his hypothesis, which seems to
me intellectually dishonest. Although I disagree with him on many points, I 
really expected better of him. (I assume you provide an exact quote. Does
Gallup really poll informed opinion btw? I thought they were in the public 
opinion business only.)

mt

mystery: since this was apparently posted to ca.environment, I have no idea
how I saw the posting, and  my newsreader refused to let me post a reply!
So I'm replying here, and hope the info gets through to interested parties.