From: reider@redwood.math.ucla.edu (Marc Reider)
Subject: Olympic Track and Field Predictions
Organization: UCLA Mathematics Department
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 92 04:31:12 GMT

  I guess its time to look foolish and throw out my predictions for
the track competition.  As one of the 6 people in this country who has
the triplecast, I'll be watching every second of it - it sure beats
workimg on my research.  It looks like the meet is totally wide open.  
About the only clear favorites are Bubka and Michael Johnson.

  I saw an interview with Dwight Stones in which he said the Barcelona
track is somewhat beat up and is not real fast.  I also heard it gets
swirling winds that can give a tailwind for the entire lap.  I'll guess
we'll find out if it is fast or slow.

    Anyway here are the predictions.  Feel free to laugh at them next
week.

100m :  Leroy Burrell, Frank Fredericks, Dennis Mitchell.  9.98
  If they ran this 5 times they could get 5 winners.  I think the race
will be as competitive as Tokyo, just a bit slower.

200m: Michael Johnson, Mike Marsh, Frank Fredericks   19.69
  Johnson will dominate.  Regis may sneak in for a medal.

400m: Quincy Watts, Danny Everett, Steve Lewis 43.70
  I'll stick with my pick from the start of the year, although Watts had
a long collegiate season.  These guys should be able to run the heats
much easier than at the US Trials which should make the final something
special.  Black can get a medal only if they go out real fast and
someone rigs the last 100m.

800m: Johnny Gray, Jose Luiz Barbosa, Mark Everett  1:43.2
  This pick is with the heart.  If Johnny just goes to the front and
runs hard I think he can do it.  

1500m: David Kibet, Fermin Cacho, Jim Spivey   3:37.5
  This race suddenly becomes a toss up with Aouita out, Morceli looking
bad.  Cacho will have the home crowd. I think the race will be slow.  If
its real slow and if he can make the final, watch out for Terrence
Herrington.

Steeple : Kenyan sweep in 8:07.  
  Tom Hanlon will edge Brian Diemer for top non-African in 5th or 6th

5000m: Paul Bitok, Yobes Ondieki, Dieter Baumann   13:15
  Baumann will be the only one to break up the Africans.  I think anyone
trying to double 10000-5000 will get drilled here.

10000m: Richard Chelimo, Khalid Skah, Thomas Osano  27:15
  I don't think the Ethiopians will run well.  Just a hunch.

  I think the US men will do better than expected in the distances,
putting a few guys in the top 8 or 10, but they're still a level away from
the medals.

Marathon:  An unknown from Africa, Ibrahim Hussein, Gelindo Bordin.
  Fast early pace, everyone dies on the hill but the top 2, with Bordin
picking off the stragglers for 3rd.

110H : Colin Jackson, Tony Dees, Tony Jarrett  13.06
  Another toss up, but I think the British are ready this year.

400H : Samuel Matete, Kevin Young, Kriss Akabusi  47.85

4x100  US, Britain, Nigeria,France   37.60 
It will be close, but I think the US can get good enough passes to win.
I just don't think France has enough quality sprinters to hold off the
other teams, but somehow they keep running fast.

4x400  US, US B team, Britain   2:55.59
  Right now they are fighting over who runs, but any way they run it,
the 400m talent in the US right now is unbelievable.

Long Jump :  Lewis over Powell.  Powell has the better series, but Lewis
hits one in the mid 29's on his 5th or 6th jump.

Decathlon : Dave Johnson edges Michael Smith in the last event. Reebok
goes out and makes lots of new commercials, and Dave gets the all-important
picture on a box of Wheaties.


  Women's events :  Merlene Ottey and Gwen Torrence split the 100 and
200.  Jackie Joyner wins heptathlon, loses long jump to Dreschler.
Patti Sue Plumer gets a medal, as does Lynn Jennings.  Neither Liz
McColgan nor Elana Meyer wins the 10K - either Jennings, Kathrin Ulrich
or Olga Bondarenko.  A CIS runner wins the marathon coming from behind.
US wins the 4x100, loses the 4x400 despite a great leg from Gwen
Torrence.  Fewer than 5 Olympic records will be broken by the women.

  Enjoy the races.  This should be a lot of fun.

	Marc Reider
	reider@math.ucla.edu


Newsgroups: rec.running