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Date:         Thu, 21 Jan 1993 00:14:30 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo, Vietnam, (#806)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
          kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
          srdjan%cathy@kri.fer.yu, christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
          76701.103@compuserve.com

I apologize for my silence - this has been the fall and winter of my
discombobulation, I fear. Lungs went berserk when the ice came a few
days back, then this morning I fell, for the second time in five
days, flat on my back, and hard. on ice.

Russia-

President Yeltsin sent a telgram to US President Clinton today,
reportedly asking for a meeting "as soon as possible" on a variety of
issues, "preferably in a third country," NPR reported. The agenda
would probably have military interventions, nukes from Ukraine and
Kazakhstan, and US aid to Russia on it, at the least.

Yesterday, it was reported that Russia would allow domestic oil
prices to "reach world levels." Also yesterday, price controls on
basic goods, put in place by Chernomyrdin 1 January, were again
withdrawn yesterday.

Bosnia-

The Bosnian Serb "Parliament" voted today to approve the Vance/Owens
plan, but Karadzic immediately warned that the negotiations would be
intense about the boundaries of the proposed 10 provinces Bosnia
would be divided into under the plan. As I understand it, three
provinces would go to Serbs, three to Croats, three to Muslims, and
Sarajevo and environs would be "neutral" and "open." However, again
from a base of imperfect knowledge, the three Serbian provinces, as
currently constituted, would NOT allow link-up with "Croatian
Serbia," nor would they connect to Serbia proper, which the Bosnian
Serbs continue to call a viable political goal.

Meanwhile, the formerly allied Croatians and Muslims are now reported
fighting again amongst themselves, especxially fiercely around
Mostar, as Croatians allegedly see the boundaries in the Vance/Owens
plan as "fixed," and they have demanded the Muslims subordinate
themselves to Croatian command in "Croatian areas." The Muslims have
refused to do this. President Izetbegovic called an emergency meeting
of his Parliament yesterday about the fighting with Croatians, and a
reporter for the BBC stated that he left that meeting "clearly
disinheartened." Lord Owen reportedly has called for an urgent
meeting of all three sides before Friday.

Serbia-

A US State Department report issued yesterday on the human rights
behaviors of 189 countries reportedly placed Serbia at the top of the
list of violators in 1992 (along with China). Their greatest "crime"
- "shelling and starving civilians in cities," and committing
aggression against sovereign states.

Kosovo-

Monitor Radio had a report yesterday on Kosovo, a place where
tensions are high, as this "province" of Serbia fears Serb
"aggression" here if an agreement is reached over Bosnia. The report
stated that i in every 3 residents of Kosovo had been rousted or
worse by the Serbs, all schools closed, the Parliament dissolved,
100,000 Albanians fired from jobs (eradicated completely from
government and police jobs), and now 70% of all Albanians in the area
have been disemployed by the minority Serbs since the crackdown
began about two years ago.

Vietnam-

A report yesterday indicates that opium addiction, once almost
eradicated in this country, is on the rise. 20,000 are "officially"
addicts, an estimated 500,000 are "probably" addicted to the drug. A
leading cause cited for this alarming behavior is Vietnam's current
20% unemployment rate.


It seems to me that Bosnia is STILL a powderkeg despite the Bosnian
Serbs signing on to the Vance/Owens "peace plan." Fighting is
fiercely still going on in many parts of the country, though aid
reportedly reached Jepa yesterday for the first time in 9 months
(though Serbian local commanders refused to let reporters go there
despite orders to allow such from Karadzic). Control at the "ground
level" appears flaky or non-existant, I expect the fighting to
continue despite the peace plan, or the UN. VMS
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