From: hubey@pilot.njin.net (Hubey)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.turkish,soc.culture.europe
Subject: Re: Meggy and Yugoslavia
Date: 13 Aug 92 22:30:10 GMT
Followup-To: soc.culture.turkish
Organization: Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, N.J.

In article <1992Aug13.205947.25143@pasteur.Berkeley.EDU> luciano@athos.Berkeley.EDU (Luciano Lavagno) writes:


>There may not be triple jungle canopies, but there are hills, houses and woods
> Again, remember that partisans in WWII were active all over Europe. I recall
> somebody pointing out that 30 German divisions and support from the local
> fascist puppet government were not able to get rid of those partisans in
> Yugoslavia.


Yes, and we've gone over this already. Making analogies to WW2 might
seem reasonable but it isn't. Haven't you read; knowledge is
doubling every fifteen years (or less by now). The largest tank
battle fought in WW2 was at Kursk; about 2,500 tanks each. That's
peanuts now, even small countries like Syria could come up with
2,500 tanks. Things like fuel-air explosives pack the power of
nukes. One Apache helicopter can probably take on a whole army
of Panzer tanks. so on....


>Partisans have never worked that way. Sniping and random mining is a more
>common way of dealing with somebody from abroad invading your
country. 


No need to confuse the issue. The guerillas are only useful as
harrassment. The choice is between concentration camps and slughter
of civilians vs pot shots by snipers. Even a sniper knows that he's
facing certain death and would probably not risk it were it not
for defense of a homeland.



And, as
the recent (at least as unfortunate, but nobody seems to worry too much) events
> in Afghanistan have shown, everybody rallies together when there is a foreign
> invader. But they start fighting again as soon as the invader withdraws.

Yes, right. When the UN forces come, the Croats, Serbs and Muslim
Slavs will make peace and attack the UN forces.  Really ?

Is this the best defense that you can think of against UN intervention ?


> Indeed. I am afraid American soldiers will leave (no smiley here) before the
> coming elections.

There are plenty of ground forces that would be willing to fight
if they had weapons. There's no need to draw doomsday scenarios
of 1,000,000 troops needed. There's no such need.


> >And finally, negative feedback, as is known very well in Control
> >Theory, is necessary and sufficient to control situations.
> 
> If and only if the system is controllable and observable. 

Every day existence of human societies all over the world for
the past n thousand years is enough proof.

> 
> I do hope so, as I am as eager as you are to see an end to the violence.
> But I don't believe it. The only wrong comparison here is with Iraq.
> Comparing it (in MILITARY terms, I am not speaking about other aspects of the
> matter, such as international law and so on) to Ireland, or Viet Nam or
> Afghanistan is, in my opinion, much more appropriate.

Comparison to both Vietnam and Afghanistan is totall inappropriate.
Comparison to Ireland might be Ok, if the UN intended to completely
preserve the borders of BiH, for then the Serbs could keep up
terror/sniper attacks.

It's ridiculous to compare to Afghanistan. It consisted of low-morale
draftees who only waited for their officers to get shot before running
away. It also meant a Russian army trying to hold a large country
against the will of the population. And most importantly, it meant
that the Russian airplanes and helicopters (their only advantages)
were being shot out of the sky with sidewinders supplied by the US.

If Iraq showed anything (as if it was not already known) it showed
that the Soviet made weapons are not match for the western arsenal.
Period. Nothing that Serbia has will have much effectiveness if
they decide to enter a full scale war against UN forces. And I
don't think they will. It's the guerillas armed by Serbia
that need to be quelled.
-- 

	mark	


   hubey@pilot.njin.net                   hubey@apollo.montclair.edu
 ...!rutgers!pilot!hubey                  hubey@logos.montclair.edu