From: rlglende@netcom.com (Robert Lewis Glendenning)
Subject: Re: ISDN Is Coming
Organization: Netcom Online Communications Services (408-241-9760 login: guest)
Distribution: ba
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1993 03:39:13 GMT

Part of the problem with ISDN coming so slowly is that it is aimed at
businesses, and automatic number identification was seen as central
to many business uses of ISDN.  Because of the public outcry re:
privacy, businesses are less interested in ISDN.

Another part is the problem of upgrading switches to provide universal
service.  It requires, I believe, either ATT 5ESS or Northern Telecom
DMS-100.  A lot of central offices will need to be consolidated or brought
up to the new switches.

Next, it costs a LOT of money to do something as simple as install
the software in the switch.  I believe I heard the figure is $27M for
the simplest upgrade.

Next, not all of the RBOCs in the US are committed to ISDN.  I believe
that USWest and the one in SW (Georgia, Florida?) are not going to
deploy ISDN.  Therefore, we won't have Universal US service, and the
incentive for businesses to use ISDN declines further.

Finally, National ISDN-1 is the US standard, and is incompatible with
the European CCITT/ISO ISDN standard.  Large US businesses are fighting
use of an incompatible standard, but ATT views the incompatibility as
a way of locking down the US switch and services market.

I don't know what all this means, except that ISDN should have been,
and could have been, deployed five years ago.  At this point, 64Kb
is pretty weak.  Broadband ISDN isn't even as close as the 128Kb link,
and only provides T1 rates over normal copper lines.  These aren't
anything to sneeze at, but the capabilities are there already and
prices are falling fast for both the lines and Customer Premises
Equipment needed to use them.  

I don't know prices for ISDN cards, but I saw an announcement from
Motorola recently quoting prices in the range of $1250 for the basic
ISDN cards for PCs.  This isn't much more than a modem, I guess.
BTW, they also had switched-56 cards, and you can get a 56Kb line
fairly cheaply from nearly every switch in the US.

If you want to blame someone, blame ATT, who has screwed up the
standards, and customer groups fighting number identification.
Then blame customer groups who haven't exactly united to push
PUCs to get ISDN deployed.  Without that, the PUCs naturally don't
want RBOCs to invest because it keeps rates up while volume of the
new service grows to cover the new costs.  If the RBOCs dont'
price new services below their start-up costs, there isn't any
demand.

Finally, blame the RBOCs for not knowing where their own interests
lay.  There is a lot of short-term thinking.  E.g., they think that
telemarketing is a boon, because they see new revenues from the
telemarketing guys.  However, it makes people insulate themselves
from their telephone, and thereby reduces the utility of the phone
system (instant access), so that it can more easily be replaced by
e-mail.

Sorry, this was more than the $.02 than I originally intended.

Lew

-- 
Lew Glendenning		rlglende@netcom.com
"Perspective is worth 80 IQ points."	Nils Bohr (or somebody like that).