From: nflynn@wvnvms.wvnet.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Pirates Management = Brain Dead
Date: 7 Jan 93 18:48:07 GMT
Organization: West Virginia Network for Educational Telecomputing

In article <EfH2n4r0Bwxd1NSG4H@transarc.com>, 
Ken_Ziolkowski@transarc.com writes:
> 
	[insults about new free agents deleted]  
>   But couldn't the Bucs have used the $3.6M to sign one
> an outfielder who could play everyday and maybe add some
> pop to what looks to be a light hitting lineup? There had
> to be someone out there that they could have signed to a
> two-year deal for ~$6.5M.

	Or how about to a 6 year, 43 million dollar contract.  This is the
real reason the Pirate management deserves to be boiled in its own juices.
For the money they saved by letting Drabek, Lind and Jackson go, they could
have signed Bonds and still had a big pile of money left over.  Of course,
then they would have a chance of winning something in the next five years.
Anyone who buys the stupid argument about "small market teams" should read
the book Billions and Baseball that just came out.  Well, at least Pirate
fans will be able to enjoy cheaper ticket prices ( yeah, right ).

> 
>   Sheri mentions that maybe Simmons is using the 1-year
> contracts to buy time for some draft picks to make it to
> the show.  I don't know but I think that the pickin's in
> Buffalo are pretty thin and don't know much about our
> prospects in AA and A ball.
> 
	If this is the plan, good luck Ted.  In addition to the problem
mentioned above, by the time these prospects are ready to go, the rest of the
team will need to be replaced ( Bell, Van Slyke, Z. Smith, the catchers ).

>   But it looks to be a brutal year for the Bucs. If Jim
> Leyland can get 80 wins out of this team, he should be
> awarded the Medal of Honor for performance "above and
> beyond". Simmons and Sauer are stacking the deck against
> him.
> 
	Here I disagree with you.  Assuming the team does not go through
a psychological collapse, which I think is unlikely with Leyland around, I 
think they can be seen as a .500 team pretty easily.  The loss of Bonds and
Drabek probably takes off 10 wins or so.  Spectacular as Lind was, his bat was
so bad that he was an average player overall.  Garcia should be able to replace
him ( better stick, worse glove, call it a wash ).  If Kevin Young is any
good, he is a big factor - he will push the ridiculous Jeff King out of the
lineup.  Replacing King with a player with even a slightly above average bat
is a tremendous positive.  

	I don't think there is much chance for this team to contend, even in
the NL East, but I think they should finish with around 81 wins plus or minus
5.  The bullpen should be better with Pena and Candelaria.  The starters are
a bit more problematical and I think is the key to the team.  If Smith comes
back ok and Neagle can make the transition to starting, it could easily be
the best in the division.  I am pretty confident about Neagle - he, Tomlin
and Wakefield make a pretty good nucleus even without Smith.  In any event,
the pitching could be anywhere from fair to outstanding.  

	The offense obviously is going to decline by quite a bit.  However,
thos doomsayers who hark back to the 1984 Pirates ( the ones with so little
stick that they led the league in ERA and still finished last ) might be
overstating the case.  I think the Pirates will have an average to slightly
below average offense this year.  Starting with last years team, we had 
outstanding production from 3 spots ( catcher, left, center ), decent
production from 2 ( short, right ) and dismal production from 3 ( first,
second and third ).  Obviously, there is going to be a major decline in
left and minor declines in center ( Van Slyke older, coming off a big year )
and right ( Cole ).  On the other hand, ironically, the Pirates weaknesses
at the other positions last can be the key to maintaining respectability this
year.  Just as losing Bonds and replacing him with an average player is a
swing of, say, 7 games, replacing a millstone like Lind or King with and 
average player can add 3 or 4 games.  Granted the good luck that their 2 best
prospects are poised to replace their two worst offensive players (Young-King,
Garcia-Lind), I think this can offset a good bit of the offensive decline. 
Also, their remaining biggest hole is at the position where talent is the 
most abundant ( first ).  I'd say they have a decent shot at keeping the 
offense close to league average.

>   By the way - who is going to bat leadoff? How about Jeff
> King - that way we can get his sorry ass out of the way early.
> 
	This is the Pirates other crime of the winter - letting Cole go.
He was cheap, productive, only 28 years old and filled a role on the team.
I think he played ok defense in right.  He also might have been more productive
playing fulltime - his data from Cleveland suggested he hit better against
lefties, whom he rarely faced while a Pirate.  (It reminds me a bit of what
happened with Milligan when he was here.  He was strictly platooned with Bream,
rarely seeing a righthander.  After he went to Baltimore, he hit much better
against northpaws his first two years there.)
 
>   Prediction:  King will be either in Buffalo or out of base-
> ball by July.
> 
	I pray you are right.

	Well, I have babbled on enough.

					Nick Flynn
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball