From: mjones@fenway.aix.kingston.ibm.com (Mike Jones)
Subject: Re: Mattingly discussion, take 2.
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 92 19:43:37 GMT
Reply-To: mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com
Organization: IBM T. J. Watson Research
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akamholz@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu (Andrew E Kamholz) writes:
: In article <92352.051418RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes:
: >first off, while i am sure that there have been gold glove winners
: >who were the best (defensively) at their position, in general, the
: >award is one big popularity contest.  mattingly, like ozzie smith,
: >wins because he used to be good.  i think he's still slightly above
: >average, but he's not the best.  not by a long shot.
: Have you guys who continually knock Mattingly's defensive skills SEEN
: HIM PLAY? I have. The only guy in the league who comes close to his
: ability is Mark McGwire, who I have also seen play. (I drove cross country
: and saw several games at each of several parks). Wally Joyner is next,
: followed by Kent Hrbek. I don't know what you're considering in your
: formula for defensive ability, but he is, by a long shot, the best.

1. Chill out, OK? The man said still slightly above average. That's hardly
knocking his skills. Jeez, you'd think he said Mattinly looked like Carney
Lansford or something!
2. Yeah? You've seen him play? How often? How often have you seen McGwire?
How often have you seen Frank Thomas? Fielder? Milligan? Martinez? Olerud?
Joyner? Unless you've seen *all* of these guys for a *bunch* of games, how
can you claim to be able to make a valid assessment?
3. What do we consider? How about "what % of balls hit toward first base
does he turn into outs"? Does that seem like a reasonable criterion for
judging defensive ability? For first basemen, it doesn't tell the whole
story - certainly ability at fielding throws from infielders is part of the
equation - but it's a good start. Well, we have just such a measure. It's
called Defensive Average, and it's based on systematic observation of every
game in the league. It divides the field into zones and counts balls hit
through the zone and credits players with ones they turn into outs. What
does DA tell us about Don Mattingly? Well, I just happen to have DA data
here for the American League for 1988-1991...


1988 American League (13 regulars)
name                      G  GOps   AGOps   GO  AGDA
1. McGriff, Fred        153   270   279.6  215 0.769
5. Mattingly, Don       143   275   277.6  195 0.702
8. League              1131  4568  4698.6 3231 0.688

1989 American League (13 regulars)
name                       G  GOps   AGOps   GO  AGDA
1.  McGwire, Mark        141   249   249.9  179 0.716
10. League              1133  4664  4718.3 3054 0.647
12. Mattingly, Don       150   329   330.2  211 0.639

1990 American League (13 regulars)
name                       G  GOps   AGOps   GO  AGDA
1.  McGwire, Mark        154   277   280.0  201 0.718
10. Mattingly, Don        89   226   227.1  148 0.652
12. League              1133  4817  4871.8 3147 0.646

1991 American League (13 regulars)
name                      G  GOps   AGOps   GO  AGDA
1. McGwire, Mark        152   303   305.6  227 0.743
7. League              1134  4925  4961.4 3282 0.662
8. Mattingly, Don       127   252   253.0  167 0.660

In 1988, Don was one of the better first basemen in the league. Since then
(and I think this can be traced largely to his back problems) he has been
right around average. (GOps is GroundOut opportunities - balls hit on the
ground through the first base zone, GO is Ground Outs - balls actually
turned into outs.) Mattingly reportedly has an above-average ability to
handle bad throws, which limited observation tends to support, so with
brownie points for that he can be described as slightly above average, but
he is *clearly* no longer one of the best fielding first basemen in the
league. Note that if Mattingly had fielded as well as McGwire last year, he
would have turned about 30 hits into outs.

: When I get a chance, I will post Mattingly's numbers on hitting with men
: on base. Elias has it. He is incredible- way above average. Some Yankee
: people attribute Don's shortcomings the last few years to the fact that
: there hasn't been anyone on base for him. There hasn't been anyone on base
: for him since he drove in 145 in '85. Believe me (Why not?); he WILL cash in.

I'd like to see these numbers. Remember to account for the fact that the
league as a whole hits better with men on base (I think it's about a
20-point difference). The question is how much ABOVE LEAGUE AVERAGE
Mattingly's average goes up with men on base. He doesn't seem to be an RBI
god - Mattingly came up last year with 132 men in scoring position and
knocked in 32 of them, for a 24.2% collection rate. ML average was 22.6%.

: And I agree; Frank Howard IS really cool.

Absolutely. Hey, even if he wasn't, would *you* want to be the one to tell
him?

   Mike Jones  |  AIX/ESA Development  |  mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com

Politicians are the same all over.  They promise to build a bridge even where
there is no river.
	- Nikita Khrushchev
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball