From: niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma)
Subject: Analysis of Canseco Trade
Organization: Math, Stats & CS, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 1 Sep 1992 11:48:02 GMT

  Well Jose's off to Texas now to join the Rangers in the blockbuster deal
with Oakland. Let's try to analyse the trade from each perspective:

  Texas: I think these guys pulled off a fantastic trade. Sierra was basically
an unsignable at this point so really all they lost was a month and a bit of 
Ruben during a season in which they have no chance of winning. The loss of
Sierra is irrelevant other than the fact that they lose draft picks. Then 
there's Jeff Russell who is exactly the kind of player you DON'T want to sign:
a) injury prone b) old and c) overrated. Russell's been really up and down as
a closer and that's not what you want; consistency is a must. So although he
could put up 25-30 saves a year he's still not that great and will demand 
mucho dollars. The loss of Russell doesn't hurt the Rangers either other than
the lost draft picks. So this leaves us with Bobby Witt, who's pitched well
about once in the last five years. I notice by glancing at his stats that his 
K rate is only 5.7 per 9 ip, which isn't really good from a power pitcher like
himself. Not to mention his absolutely pathetic 5.2 BB/9ip. He'd never do   
anything for the Rangers and Tom House.
  In short I think Texas made a great trade. Canseco's paid a fair share but   
in today's market it doesn't look nearly as bad as the busts in New York    
(Bonilla and Tartabull were expected to do more). Jose's also a big name which
doesn't hurt the gate receipts and will probably hit much better in Texas than
in Oakland and should clear 40 HR annually. Assuming his health is adequate he's
still a superstar, and you don't usually get superstars for two months of a    
great player, a wild aging pitcher and an overrated reliever who you wouldn't
want to sign to a multi year deal.

  Oakland: Alderson is a great man and I assume he knows what he is doing. So
what is he doing? Obviously he's laid out all of the cards for this year and
then is beginning a MAJOR rebuilding procedure, one in which the A's probably
won't seriously contend for 4 or 5 years but then get tremendously strong again.
Due to all of the free agents on the A's (16 at last count?) and the fact that
his team is decaying faster than wet bread Alderson's decided to roll the dice
one last time in a last ditch effort to win this year. His team is clearly a 
better team than it was yesterday so it's a step in the right direction. If he
can sign Sierra then the trade won't look so bad at all and Sierra could still
have a better career than Canseco because Jose's injury prone. If the A's win
the World Series this year then it won't look so bad either and right now they
are just about as strong as anyone on paper. If LaRussa and Dave Duncan can 
finally figure out that enigma named Bobby Witt (which could VERY well happen
since he's no longer dealing with Tom House and is now with a great pitching
coach on a good ballclub in a pitcher's park) then the trade might not look so
bad. And if you can get draft picks for Jeff Russell then you're doing pretty
good. So there are a lot of ways that this could be a good deal for the A's as
well.
  It's really hard to evaluate the trade from the A's point of view because you
so many things re: free agents remain unknown. I think after this season the
A's will let most of their free agents go and only try to retain Sierra and
McGwire since they are still young and great ball players. Imagine all those
draft picks the A's will have!! I think that this trade represents the absolute
final frontier for the A's.

					Gord Niguma
					(fav player John Olerud)


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