From: sachz@montebello.ecom.unimelb.EDU.AU (SAS)
Subject: UN Bid to halt spread of War [Macedonia] 
Followup-To:  soc.culture.yugoslavia,soc.culture.europe
Originator: sachz@montebello.ecom.unimelb.EDU.AU
Organization: Dept. Engineering Computer Resources, Melbourne Uni.
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 03:29:29 GMT

UN BID TO HALT SPREAD OF WAR
Yaroslav Trofimov, NEW YORK and Nigel Dudley, LONDON.
The European

   Macedonia is likely to receive rapid international recognition
from the United Nations if the European Community fails to acknowledge
the former Yugoslav republic's independence at next week's Edinburgh
summit.

   The move comes amid growing fears that the war raging in Bosnia
will spill over into Macedonia, igniting an even more horrific
conflict which would bring other Balkan countries into the Yugoslav
civil war for the first time.

   This prospect means that UN diplomats are no longer prepared to
wait indefinitely for the EC to resolve its year-long dispute over
Macedonia's recognition. Greece is objecting to the use of the name
Macedonia, claiming that it would inflame regional tensions.

   An EC ambassador to the UN said the matter would "fall out of
the hands of the EC and come to the UN" if the EC failed to resolve
it in Edinburgh. He predicted that the UN would be "highly unlikely"
to turn the bid down, even though Russia is the only one of the
15-member Security Council to have recognised the state. "Unlike the
EC, Greece has no veto here, and no one will have to veto for her if
the issue comes to the Council," agreed another EC Security Council
diplomat.

   Were the UN used to circumvent an EC agreement, it would provoke
a major row between member states and seriously damage attempts to
develop a common foreign policy.

   Dr Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the UN secretary general, is said to be
strongly supportive of Macedonia's admission to the world body. He
enraged Greek officials last week by referring in his letter to the
Security Council to the crisis in "Macedonia", without the usual
qualifier "former Yugoslav republic".

   Diplomats say that Macedonia's UN membership, bringing a painful
diplomatic defeat to Greece, would open the way for immediate
recognition by most non-EC countries, and would even enable some EC
member-states to follow suit.

   They say there is growing acceptance in New York that unless
immediate action is taken to end Macedonia's diplomatic limbo - it
declared independence last year but has only been recognised by only
a few countries - it will be vulnerable to destabilisation and
destruction by other regional powers.

   Macedonia's political stability is also threatened by economic
collapse. It is the unintended victim of tightened sanctions against
Serbia, which have severed its only link to the outside world. It is
also suffering from an economic blockade from Greece.

   If it does collapse into civil war, the consequences for the
stability of the eastern Mediterranean could be profound as first
Serbia and then Albania are drawn in. They would almost certainly be
followed by Bulgaria, Greece and then Turkey.

   Some EC countries, including Britain, are very unhappy that
Greece has managed to veto every attempt by the European Community
to recognise Macedonia. Diplomats say that taking the matter to the
UN, where there is widespread support for Macedonia, would
circumvent Greek opposition.

   Greece is insisting that Macedonia is totally dropped from the
former Yugoslav republic's name. It argues that keeping its present
identity is evidence of its territorial ambitions in the Greek
province of the same name.

   EC diplomats consider it unlikely that Athens will back down
before the Edinburgh summit, relying on agreement reached between
the 12 member states not to recognise any country with the word
Macedonia in it.

   There is hope of a compromise. The EC's special envoy, Robin
O'Neill, has hinted that a settlement could be in the offing. If one
is not reached, diplomats believe that the UN will take an
increasingly active role in resolving the question of Macedonia. It
has sent a 14 member monitoring team to Macedonia ahead of the
possibly deployment of peacekeepers. [already occurred - article delayed]
it will then respond to Macedonia's request for 1,000 peacekeepers.
[see elsewhere in MAK-NEWS for followup on this]

   Macedonia's UN application has already been lodged but it has
been agreed that it will not be activated until the outcome of the
Edinburgh meeting becomes clear.