From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 25 Dec 1992 09:35:01 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                23 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 358, 12/23/92
10.7 FLUX=143.8  90-AVG=138        SSN=120      BKI=1323 2111  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B3.3     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2333 2221  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=007,025,016,024,012,007,006,006   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.5   @ 1949UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.1   @ 1040UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2200UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2210UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1955UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 1520UT   BOUTF-MIN=55397NT @ 1857UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+101NT@ 1932UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0909UT  G7-AVG=+079,+028,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1911UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-020NT@ 0727UT  G6-AVG=+107,-008,+018
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,140,135;SESC:140,140,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,015,025/004,004,004
    KFCST=1123 4321 1123 4455  27DAY-AP=009,004   27DAY-KP=2413 2221 2112 2211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7374 (S09E07)
       continued its slow decline as it simplified in both white
       light and magnetic structure. It generated just two C-class
       subflares. Elsewhere, similar to yesterday, another sizeable
       filament located near center disk disappeared about 1200Z. This
       filament was oriented north-south and spanned about 15 degrees.
       Little else of significance was reported. The other 7 spotted
       regions visible are distinctly commonplace.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7374 seems capable of just C-class activity.
       Significant development would have to occur for an M-class
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next
       24-36 hours. Conditions should then become increasingly more
       disturbed through the end of the period due to effects of the
       large center-disk filament which disappeared early 22 december.
       Active to minor storm levels are forecast to end the interval.

            Event probabilities 24 dec-26 dec

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 dec-26 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/40/30
                        Minor Storm           05/40/50
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/25
                        Minor Storm           10/50/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/15/35

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next 24 to 48 hours.  Thereafter, conditions are expected to
       deteriorate as the disturbance from the disappearing filament
       noted above begins to enhance geophysical activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7370  S09W39  049  0060 CSO  05  007 BETA
7372  S13W07  017  0030 CAO  06  005 BETA
7374  S08E07  003  0290 EKI  11  028 BETA-GAMMA
7376  N17E18  352  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7378  N12E26  344  0070 CSO  04  003 BETA
7379  S12E55  315  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7380  S17W58  068  0010 BXO  04  002 BETA
7368  S33W78  088                    PLAGE
7369  S07W48  058                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 DECEMBER TO 26 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
A22/1946            B23/1249     N06W05     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
78   S40E19 S45E09 S04W13 S04W13  022  ISO   POS   018 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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