From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Two out of three gone (Ripkens that is)
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1992 09:42:45 GMT

In article <14DEC199217501074@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu> hasch@jhuvms.hcf.jhu.edu (Bruce M Hasch) writes:
>In <1gb3o8INNi3q@uwm.edu>, paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger) writes...

>>Just heard that Baltimore signed Harold Reynolds and released Billy "I live
>>off the family name" Ripken. Rejoice O's fans.

>	Although I'm not known for it, I'm going to go into shouting-at-the-top-
>of-my-lungs-all-out-absolute-ecstasy.  Please hit 'n' if you are offended--I
>don't mean any harm. 
>	YEEHA! YESSSSSS! HURRAY!  YIPPEE!!  HAPPY HAPPY JOY JOY!!!!
>[Ahem, excuse me.]

I think you're overreacting just a little.  While Billy was putrid,
don't expect Harold Reynolds to be better.

>	While Reynolds isn't great, his worst year (last year, .248/.331/.319--
>Yecch.) beats the hell out of Billy's last year (.236/.318/.280) and his 
>speed and switch-hitting ability should be an asset to the team.  Hopefully,
>Reynolds will rebound to his more respectable pre-1992 stats.  Defensively,
>Reynolds is still very solid.  

Bill James projects
Reynolds: 250/328/327  (32)
Ripken:   248/292/323  (28)
McLemore: 222/293/276  (28)
Scarsone: 240/279/349  (27)
Hulett:   247/307/370  (33)    <- Oh, wait, I forgot him.

You tell me whether those possible 40 points of OPS (assuming that
moving from Seattle to Baltimore doesn't hurt much) is worth the draft
pick that he costs.  No, I don't think so.

At *best*, that makes Reynolds an average 2bman.  Ick.

Reynolds has no (useful) speed -- his basestealing is breakeven at best.
His switch-hitting isn't going to do any more for him than it's already
done.  More fundamentally, 32 year old players who have never been very
good don't rebound.

Compare these AVAILABLE people, on the other hand, and tell me if you're
still happy:

Player/projection/age
Jeff Treadway: 277/323/387.  (30)
Randy Ready:   241/362/371   (33)
Wally Backman: 260/353/397   (33)
Juan Samuel:   250/311/391   (32)
Rene Gonzales: 235/317/300   (31)  

>	But, again, the most important thing is --HE'S NOT BILLY!!!!!
>	Unfortunately, I feel that this may be a "shut up the fans" move-
>intended to keep the fans believing that the organization is doing something
>to improve the team.  Reynolds will be an improvement over Bill, but only
>because Bill was so damn awful.  The O's still are mumbling about going into
>next season with The Adventures of Chito Martinez and his sidekick Luis
>Mercedes, who could combine to form the worst defensive platoon in the history
>of the game... (did Reimer and Incaviglia ever play together??? :-)).  
>Remember Roland, Reynolds is a good start, but repeat after me--Ruben Sierra--
>Ruben Sierra--Ruben Sierra.  Good.

Why?  First of all, I don't think Chito is that bad at all.  Certainly 
Mercedes looks like Luis Polonia in the outfield, but Martinez seems
decent to me, though I'd love to see what DA has to say.  (I wouldn't
put much weight on one year Range Factors, but Sierra was near the
bottom, and Martinez was near the top in the AL last year.)

Secondly, I know I'm going to be ridiculed for saying so, but why would 
you really rather have Ruben Sierra than Chito Martinez?  I don't think 
he's much better.

In fact, looking at James's projections, neither does he:
Ruben:  289/344/474
Chito:  252/330/463

They are actually the same age, 27.  Certainly Ruben looks a little
better, and his upside potential is much greater than Chito Martinez's,
but is he worth the four or five million more?  I don't think so.  Basically,
Ruben Sierra is pretty overrated.  I'd rather see the money spent on Mark 
McGwire.  Or Barry Bonds.  (Oh well.  Damn.  Maybe Bob Lurie will cancel
his contract again though.  I can always hope.)

On the other hand, it's worse than what you're saying; the platoon is
more likely to be Martinez/Mercedes/Segui.  Ouch.  Just what the Orioles
needed.  A first baseman who hits like a middle infielder playing the
outfield.

As long as we don't get Harold Baines, who the Orioles were also
interested in at one time, though. 
-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Is it too early to start making predictions for 1993?
niepornt@phoenix.    | Probably, but that never stopped me before.
   princeton.edu     | ALE: Baltimore ALW: Chicago NLE: Montreal NLW: Atlanta
Baltimore Orioles 93 | AL MVP: Cal Ripken  AL Cy Young: Mike Mussina
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball