Newsgroups: rec.games.board
Subject: Re: A&A - I think I found it!!!!
From: oberland@vax.sonoma.edu
Date: 12 Dec 92 22:39:20 -0800
Organization: Sonoma State University

In article <sf_Euk600VB=Q4z0VC@andrew.cmu.edu>, Erik Lauer <el0g+@andrew.cmu.edu> writes:
> I must be misremebering the map or intial set up:
> 
>>Misc: 1a from Lybia to Caucasus with BS
>>JAPAN'S turn:(the real key!)send a fighter to Caucasus(It reaches) send
>>bomber to hit that armor if it can(usually, it is within range-assume not)
> 
> Doesn't Britian have an inf in Iraq, an Armor in Egypt, and a fighter in
> india to take the Caucasus back with?  This would leave Germany with
> nothing adjacent to Russia by Japan's turn (since they allies now hold
> Karelia and Caucuses).  As I see it unless you took Karelia you are
> about to die.  If you barely took (losing your planes) and Britain takes
> it back, and sinks your tiny Baltic fleet you are still in a lot of
> trouble.

Gheezhus!
Lessee...
I ran a program(thanks, JOSH!)that simulates combat accurately.

results:
17i in Russia, no flak hit:(all results +-2%, Mutual kill is considered a "win"
for my purposes)  76% I win
17, 1 hit(avg) 52%
18, N:51
18, 1:35
19, N:32
19, 1:30

There.  The results do not lie.  For you as Russia to keep me from pasting you,
you HAVE to put 18i or more in Karelia.
Problem is:  I then coast into Caucasus, and revert to my original plan.

IF Russia figures that I will go defensive, it is not uncommon for them to buy
ONE tank or possibly two.
The odds for me taking it with a total of 21A+I is fairly good.  At the very
LEAST, I will fry them down to about 1 fighter or two.
So, they have a choice: buy a tank, and be forced to leave 1piece in Caucasus,
OR forget about attacking me, and have me spread out.
Their buying *ONE* tank reduces them to placing 7 units, so at MOST 18 units
could be placed, leaving Caucasus OPEN.(BADDDD option)
So, 17 units if they buy a tank.
(this is where I got the 17 figure, btw)

If they buy two tanks, assuming I will do my first plan, then I can turn them
into bean-dip(:) )

Seems like a good plan, as they loose ground either way.
plan 1:send 6 or more pieces into each area.  Transport 2i into Norway as well,
IF I wish(not too important, though).  Wait for their attack.
plan 2:send it all into Karelia

IF they have 20 2's in Karelai or less, fry it.
IF they have more, use plan one
simple, and effective.

They can't tell what I will do, and so, they stand to loose unless they guess
EXACTLY right, and can read my mind.

About the UK taking it back, GET REAL.
The armor in range HAVE to go to India to save it, or you can kiss Asia
goodbye.
NOTHING else can reach, unless they want to blow their attack on their first
turn in asia by sending the fighter.
SEND that one fighter to me!  I enjoy 1-2 I vs that fighter and infantry!
looks like the UK has a NASTY choice to make... >:)         
I kill ONE piece, and they choose to loose the I or the F.  No I=no territory
taken back! No F=India is toast! Send it all, and loose India anyway!

Joe
P.S. the "dice of Joe" do not exist.  YOU try putting 19i in Karelia and
see how well you are off when I send 6-8 into Caucasus and fortify myself
everywhere else!

My plan hurts Russia very badly, and has a fair chance of killing their
fighters, which NEVER get replaced.  Without those fighters, EVEN if the UK
sends in theirs, turn two is a pushover(10i,2f vs 6i,8a).  I stand to wipe
out the allied air-force at the worst.
turn 3 is even worse, with 7-8 a coming in.

Killing those fighters, and forcing the UK to send in ITS fighters is
well worth the risk fi there is 18i in Karelia.  I stand to loose, but not
by much.  I should at least take out everything BUT those fighters.

But, this is not new to many players.  WHAT IS NEW is having Japan play
"clean-up" for me, and keep Russia from reinforcing itself(or the UK)from
the East.  I have seen games where Russia guesses wrong, and dies by turn 3 or
4!  IF they guess right, they still(!) loose badly, and are due to loose from 
Japan two turns earlier(round 6 or 7).
Looks like Germany HAS delayed the Allies long enough!
:)
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