From: liaohen@cbnews.cb.att.com (Heng-Hsin Liao)
Subject: Second thought to the election
Organization: AT&T Bell Lab
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1992 19:15:50 GMT


A summary to the election
-------------------------

Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
-----------	------	------	------	-----------
votes %		 60.16	  1.91	 31.86	  6.07
---------------------------------------------------
elected seats	 79	  1	 37	  8
%		 63.20	  0.80	 29.60	  6.40
---------------------------------------------------
overall rep.	 19	  0	 11	  -
%		 63.33	  0.00	 36.67	  -
---------------------------------------------------
overseas rep.	  4	  0	  2	  -
%		 66.67	  0.00	 33.33
---------------------------------------------------
total seats	102	  1	 50	  8
%		 63.35	  0.62	 31.06	  4.97

Note:
1) All KMT and DPP electeds belong to their own political parties
   for a more clear picture. (both backed and elected independently)

2) Chen, Cheh-Nan is counted as an independent elected. (already
   expelled by KMT)

3) Because of (1)(2), the vote %'s are different from the government
   official data.

4) "Other" includes CSD and other minor parties.

Detail Statistics
-----------------

Taipei County (K,D,K)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 65.78	  0.93	 27.59	  5.70
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	 11	  0	  4	  1

Yilan County (I,K,-)
------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 49.42	  -	 14.36	 36.22
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  -	  0	  1

Taoyuan County (K,D,D)
--------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 60.93	  0.97	 37.61	  0.48
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  4	  0	  3	  0

Hsinchu County (D,K,-)
--------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 54.07	  7.72	 38.22	  -
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  0	  1	  -

Miaoli County (K,K,K)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 74.44	  0.84	 23.04	  1.69
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  3	  0	  0	  0

Taichung County (K,D,K)
---------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 74.15	  0.92	 24.81	  0.12
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  6	  0	  1	  0

Nantou County (D,K,I)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 39.89	  0.60	 39.36	 20.15
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  0	  1	  1

Changhwa County (D,D,K)
---------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 69.17	  0.46	 29.19	  1.18
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  5	  0	  2	  0

Yunlin County (D,O,K)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 58.00	 18.41	 20.21	  3.37
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  2	  1	  1	  0

Chiayi County (D,K,K)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 57.61	  -	 22.85	 19.53
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  2	  -	  1	  0

Tainan County (D,K,D)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 60.46	  0.76	 38.58	  0.20
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  3	  0	  2	  0

Kaohsiong County (D,D,K)
----------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 53.03	  0.33	 38.92	  7.72
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  3	  0	  2	  1

Pingtong County (D,K,D)
---------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 54.94	  0.22	 34.93	  9.91
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  3	  0	  2	  0

Taitong County (K,-,-)
--------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 67.12	  0.87	 31.53	  0.48
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  0	  0	  0

Hwalien County (K,K,-)
--------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 77.46	  0.58	 21.72	  0.25
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  2	  0	  0	  0

Penghu County (K,-,-)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 89.54	  -	 10.46	  -
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  -	  0	  -

Keelung City (K,D,-)
------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 57.96	  2.64	 39.40	  -
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  0	  1	  -

Hsinchu City (D,K,-)
------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 60.59	  0.87	 32.59	  5.96
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  0	  1	  0

Taichung City (K,K,D)
-------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 56.27	  3.95	 39.42	  0.47
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  2	  0	  2	  0

Chiayi City (D,-,-)
-----------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 49.91	  -	 50.09	  -
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  0	  -	  1	  -

Tainan City (D,K,D)
-----------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 52.73	  0.89	 38.20	  8.18
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  2	  0	  2	  0

Taipei City (North) (K,D,D)
-------------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 58.11	  0.37	 40.17	  1.35
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  6	  0	  3	  0

Taipei City (South) (D,D,K)
-------------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 53.55	  0.64	 31.39	 14.42
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  4	  0	  3	  2

Kaohsiong City (North) (D,K,K)
----------------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 49.22	  0.72	 40.03	 10.02
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  3	  0	  2	  1

Kaohsiong City (South) (D,K,D)
----------------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 47.43	 11.75	 31.46	  9.36
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  4	  0	  2	  0

Chinmen County (K,-,-)
--------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 97.29	  -	  2.71	  -
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  -	  0	  -

Matzu County (K,-,-)
------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		100.00	  -	  -	  -
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  -	  -	  -

Aborigins (Plain) (K,K,K)
-----------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 92.61	  -	  -	  7.39
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  1	  -	  -	  0

Aborigins (Mountain) (K,K,I)
--------------------
	Categories	KMT	Other	DPP	Independent
	----------	------	------	------	-----------
	votes %		 77.43	  -	  5.90	 16.67
	-----------	------	------	------	-----------
	elected seats	  2	  -	  0	  1

Note:
1) All KMT and DPP electeds belong to their own political parties
   for a more clear picture. (both backed and elected independently)

2) Chen, Cheh-Nan of Kaohsiong City (South) is counted as an
   independent elected. (already expelled by KMT)

3) Because of (1)(2), the vote %'s are different from the government
   official data.

4) "Other" includes CSD and other minor parties.

5) Three alphabets after county/city denote the political attribute
   of the three electeds with the hightest votes.

Personal observations
---------------------
1) This is an old problem. Taipei/Kaohsiong Cities have a higher
   seats/populations ratio than other counties/cities. It's not the
   right way.

2) The famous "Hwang, Fu-Hsing" gets all its supportees elected. It
   is not a very good sign to KMT because it is prone to emphasizing
   the originality issue and it's non-compromising attitude to TI
   and/or "One Taiwan, one China". One good example happened in Taoyuan
   County. It refused to share some of its votes with other KMT
   nominees. The result is that its supportee won the highest vote
   in Taoyuan which, if properly managed, is enough to get two other
   KMTers elected. DPP, instead, won 3 seats out of 7.

3) A "Wai-Sheng Ren group" is emerging which consists "Hwang, Fu-Hsing",
   "Neo-KMT Front" (also a big winner in this election) and possibly
   "Hwa-Lung Group". It has about 15-20% of total votes and about
   20-25% of total seats. This, together with the original
   "Non-mainstream", is going to be a major threat to President Li's
   "Mainstream".

4) Why Chao, Shao-Kan won 235,000 votes? He does have good reputation.
   Let's have a look from another viewpoint. Taipei County has 20%
   Wai-Sheng Ren. There are more than 1.3 million votes in Taipei County
   and just a few Wai-Sheng Ren electee this time. I think this is one
   of the major factors.

5) DPP is capable of challenging 3 seats each in Kaohsiong(North,South),
   Kaohsiong County and 4 seats in Taipei City (North).

Heng-Hsin

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