From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: J. Gonzales All-time HR King
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1992 05:43:44 GMT

In <BuC3Ly.IFA@news.cso.uiuc.edu> mab50312@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu (Mark A. Blickhan) writes:

>Those numbers are very incorrect because Gonzalez won't walk JUST 50 time
>per year.  Like McGwire and F.Thomas (not Gorman), the pitchers would put
>him on base.  However,  Gonzalez might have too much support batting 
>behind him now,  but who will in the future cannot be determined.

>I would estimate about 100 - 120 walks per season (with as many plate
>appearances that you give), and HRs should go down by (70 fewer AB/ 10 HRper
>AB) = 7 HR per year .  Over 15 seasons, that's 105 HR.

Excuse me?  There's a minor problem with this.  To walk, you need to
take pitches.  (A fact which seems to have escaped most Cubs.)  Great
hitter does NOT equate to getting lots of walks.  Not even great power
hitter.  Or how do you explain:

Andre Dawson (never more than 44 walks in any season, INCLUDING his 49
	HR year, when he got just 32)
Joe Carter (most: 49)
Don Mattingly (most: 56, the year he drove in 145 runs)
Kirby Puckett (57)
Ruben Sierra (56)
George Bell (43)
Matt Williams (33)
Pete Incaviglia (55)
Albert Belle (42)
Bo Jackson (44)

Slightly better: Glenn Davis (69), Dave Parker (67), Jose Canseco (78)

In addition, the opposite is true; many hitters that don't scare anyone
(Brett Butler, Ozzie Smith, Chuck Knoblauch, Lance Blankenship, Darren 
Daulton and Brady Anderson prior to this year) walk frequently.  

>BIG DISCREPANCY!

The flaw in your argument is your claim that the pitchers are "just
putting" McGwire and Thomas on base.  Nothing could be further from the
truth.  McGwire and Thomas have to work to get those walks. (And
McGriff, and Bonds...)

Furthermore, your numerical claim is absurd, too.  Walking 100-120 times
per year?  Among active players, here's EVERY 100 walk season:

Wade Boggs (4 times), Barry Bonds (2 times), George Brett, Brett Butler, Jack
Clark (4 times), Will Clark, Alvin Davis, Brian Downing, Dwight Evans (3
times), Von Hayes (2 times), Rickey Henderson (4 times), Fred McGriff (2 
times), Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Eddie Murray, Willie Randolph, Cal
Ripken, Kevin Seitzer, Mickey Tettleton (3 times), and the net.god
himself, Frank Thomas (2 times).

And, of course, Shawon Dunston, 9 times.  :)

[There might be one or two I missed, including some of this years, but
this is reasonably complete.]

I find it hard to believe that a player who has never walked more than 42
times in the majors is going to start walking over 100 times consistently 
when none of these players, including several who are future HOFers, did it
more than 4 times.  Think of all the great players who aren't on this
list, like Winfield and Yount, or who are only on once, like Brett and
Murray.

Just because the mediots say that walks are a sign of respect, don't
believe them.  Walks are a sign of selectivity.  Intentional walks are a
sign of respect, but they amount to less than 10% of total walks.

>Mark Blickhan   ---   Go Lions,,,  Go Angels 

--------
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1992 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Brady Anderson 1992 AL MVP
Hi, I'm back, & ready to kill the next person who misspells Ripken as Ripkin.
-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1992 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Brady Anderson 1992 AL MVP
Hi, I'm back, & ready to kill the next person who misspells Ripken as Ripkin.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball