From: trevore@vast.unsw.edu.au (Trevor Elbourne (Supr. Hell) BE)
Subject: Re: Avert Armageddon [Macedonia]
Organization: University of New South Wales
X-Newsreader: Tin 1.1 PL4
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1992 12:59:12 GMT


sachz@montebello.ecom.unimelb.EDU.AU (SAS) writes:
: 
: AVERT ARMAGEDDON
: 3 - 6 December 1992 - The European
: 
:    The consequences of Europe if the civil war in the Balkans
: spreads to the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia will make even
: the horrors of Sarajevo pale into insignificance. The fighting has
: been kept, until now, within the frontiers of what was Yugoslavia.
: But, should Macedonia erupt, the conflict would almost certainly
: suck in Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey. It would be
: brutal: much more blood would be shed, many more cities destroyed
: and hatred reinforced for generations.
: 
	Greece has pledged that it will support Skopjia Economicaly,
militarily. On all counts. In Thsalonika there were a million
greeks that protested about the missuse of the name Makedonia by
skopjia, in Athens 1.5 million. 90% + support the goverment even ask for
more. Greece has been succesful till now in preventing the missuse
of the name and the symbols, as well as the other purposses. Whatever
is decided in the near future Grece and Skopjia will have to live togethre.
It will be stupid to have Greece as enemies. Healthy econic relationships
can only be with Greece. All others, Albania, Serbia even Bulgaria wants 
pieces. turkey want to use them for their cause.


:    A wider war can be averted if the international community ends
: the political and economic no-man's-land status which has left
: Macedonia so vulnerable to meddling by other powers. The clearest
: guarantee for Macedonia would be recognition, backed by the
: stationing of UN forces in the former Yugoslav republic.
: 

	No that will be creating a now pressure point that the Skopjiens will have to live with. they worry about the Albaniens, The Serbs, The Bulgariens
inveading them. Blocking out Greece is too stupid. For the rest of their 
existance they will be asking for help from the united nations.


:    This support should be conditional on formal guarantees from
: Macedonia's President Gligorov that he has no territorial ambitions
: in northern Greece.
	Let alone the other non official proof of territorial ambitions
what the hell does the flag mean. As a western diplomat pointed out. The 
choice of flag was suicide.

: He must also grant equal rights to the Albanian
: minority, who fear suppression by the Slav majority; failure to do
: this could spark off yet another ethnic conflict.
: 
:    There is no time to delay. Macedonia - an unintended casualty of
: punitive  sanctions taken against Serbia - faces collapse. Its
: instability is a recruiting ground for the extremists.
: 
:    Consequently, the UN must take the initiative from the EC, which
: is powerless so long as Greece sticks to its policy of vetoing
: recognition until Macedonia changes its name. EC leaders were unwise
: to endorse this view at the Lisbon summit. But Britain and France,
: as permanent members of the UN Security Council, are under no
: obligation to protect a narrow Greek national interest. Their vote
: should be governed by the wider international need to prevent war in
: Macedonia.
: 

	The national intrest of Greece is above all for Greece. Britain
and France might have a double standard wen going to the UN like that.
Klinton pledged to support the Greek side. Although 1 veto is needed
I am not sure anyone is prepered although I hope one will.


:    Greece deserves some understanding. Names of countries are a
: sensitive matter, raising deep and genuinely-felt passions. There is
: real fear that a Macedonia called just that will inevitably, have
: territorial ambitions in the Greek province of the same name. But this
: argument is not sustainable. It is hard to believe that, Greece is
: really frightened of a defeat by a land-locked mini-state. Even if
: it were true that Macedonia had territorial ambitions, a name
: change is unlikely to make any difference.
: 

	The name was created for that very reason. Skopjia as a puppet
for stronger nations is the fear. Only a couple of days ago the CIA cheif
pesented a couple of senarios were the whole of the Balcans will catch on 
fire including Skopia, Greece anTurkey. the other day a Turk official
announced that Greece is endangouring teritories of it's own by not
allowing recognition of "Makedonia". 


:    The best way to resolve this dispute is for Greek and Macedonian
: leaders to meet, negotiate and compromise. Greece has a sensible
: government, which could surely accept a name along the line
: discussed earlier this year such as "The Macedonian Republic of
: Skopje". 
	Oh sorry we can't fit that name on this little paque. We will
have to cut it down to "The Makedonian Republ (Chop)
:But if Greece maintains its position despite growing
: international impatience, its views will have to be set to one side.
: The spread of the civil war beyond Yugoslav borders is a development
: no government can afford to allow.
: 
: 
	yet the weekest will suffer the most. I can tell you now that
if war brakes out. Albania will take it's bit Serbia it's own and Bulgaria 
the rest. Greece does not want any piece. They wouldn't want minorities and 
refugees. If Turkey get's in the act all hell will brake loose.
--

	Don't be Stupid SAS. If I were Skopjia I'd go for Republic of
Skopjia. (And call the country internaly "Makedonia") The same way
for example there is Greece and Ellada internaly. And then call 
Greece to pay up for all it's promices. ie Economic support and military.
Get the EC, the UN to follow through on theirs. They will be
the crossroad to Europe. Thessalonica in the Biggest port in the area.
All trade will pass through them to go to x_soviet union and Europe.
They will be a little Switserland. There current alternative is
going against Greece and getting nothing. Greece will close borders
and that's the best they can hope. War with them in the centre of the storm
will put them in none existance. The have been the spark of war before.
Now they all will make sure that they wont be there again. It's your
choice. Don't make it one of ego.
	George




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