From: vinsight@netcom.com (Chan T. Vninsight)
Subject: Is Peaceful Revolution Possible In Vietnam?
Originator: daemon@media.mit.edu
Reply-To: vinsight@netcom.com
Organization: N/A
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 1992 08:09:50 GMT


IS A PEACEFUL REVOLUTION POSSIBLE IN VIETNAM?

The failed coup d'etat in the Soviet Union and its political
consequences in that part of the world has been cause for great concern
in the remaining communist countries. In Vietnam, the aftershocks could
be felt from the Mekong Delta to remote areas of the North.

Information from Vietnam indicates that Hanoi's paranoia has reached a
new degree of mistrust, but this time directed at its own security
personnel. In the Hau-Giang area of the Mekong Delta, where anti-regime
feeling is at all time high, public security agents are no longer
allowed to carry firearms, only knives instead. In many other areas,
they are armed with unloaded guns. It is too risky, in Hanoi's eyes, to
arm a militia force whose loyalty is questionable.

Rumors of a coup d'etat are rampant. Many well placed government
officials and party members started selling their properties and
collecting wealth in preparation for a major change.  Rightly or
wrongly, this has exacerbated the instability and fed growing fears
among the party rank-and-file.

Party members fear for their safety should the Hanoi regime be toppled.
Moreover, the Communist Party leadership is actively fanning fears among
it's members that the people will put the old saying about "an eye for
an eye and a tooth for a tooth" into action in the form of lynchings,
witch hunts and mob revenge. For only fear, the dreadful fear of the
people's revenge, could make these faithless members cling to and defend
a dying and bankrupt regime like the one in Hanoi.

Even worse, these fears are perfectly understandable.  The Vietnamese
Communist Party's record is a shameful one indeed: sixteen years of
brutal rule over the South and thirty six years in the North, countless
"blood debts" exacted from Vietnamese of all walks of life, two million
of boat refugees with hundreds of thousands dead at sea, the whole
nation down the drain and awash in an ocean of misery, and innumerable
other atrocities, both large and small, committed over the decades.
With a record like that, Communist Party members cannot help but wonder
what would happen to them if the regime were to fall.

While it is understandable that those who commit atrocities should
expect the same in return, the collapse of the Communist system in other
parts of the world has thus far shown to be virtually bloodless.

In terms of the havoc wrecked on their nation by the communist system,
the Soviet people have at least as much reason to hate communism as
their Vietnamese counterparts.  With more than 30 million people
murdered in Stalinist purges, millions persecuted by the KGB or sent to
the Gulag, and an economy bankrupted by 72 years of mismanagement, in
some ways the Soviets have suffered even more under communism than the
Vietnamese.

Until recently, people were still convinced that the Soviet Union would
undergo a violent and bloody transformation like an exploding supernova
when the Communist system comes to an end. The world watched with great
relief as the August events unfolded with minimum bloodshed, showing
that neither the Soviet army nor the people were interested in violence.
They seemed to be too occupied with making it to the future without
creating the same hell they have tried to escape. There was no desire on
the part of the army to shoot at its own people nor for the people to
take revenge and cause further damage to their already ruined country.
The few killings that did take place seem to have resulted from panic on
the part of young soldiers.
 
Similar peaceful changeover in Vietnam is very likely.

After decades of war and suffering, the Vietnamese people, including the
majority of party members, are disgusted with the endless violence and
atrocities. They are looking forward to the future and want to put the
past behind them. Moreover, the people have seen that except for the
stubborn, power-hunger leadership, the rest of the party members and
cadres are more victims than the culprits of the system, many were lured
or forced to join the party out of love for the nation during the
independence war against the French and during the Vietnam War. Only in
the spirit of reconciliation and unity could the country be restored to
peace, prosperity and happiness. With this recognition, even the Hanoi
leadership would be forgiven if, and only if, they make changes soon
enough to avert a rebellion of catastrophic proportions.

The peaceful revolutions in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union have
taught the Vietnamese Communist members much of the democratization
process. It is indeed can be painless and should not be feared, in
contrast to all the bloody communist revolutions in the past, as long as
party members let go of their fear of the people and quickly support the
popular will. Their efforts toward building a democratic nation now
would redeem their past mistakes, for the governing philosophy in
Vietnam is "misdeeds can be forgiven with good services." Another
important factor is the sooner Hanoi lifts the lid from the simmering
political situation, the better the chances to transform peacefully
toward democracy.

It is also in every Vietnamese' interest to save national energy and
resource for the rebuilding of Vietnam after communism.

-- 
Vietnam Insight (vinsight@netcom.com)
Chan Tran, editor