From: ptaylor@airfarce.Canada.Sun.COM (Peter Taylor - Sun Toronto )
Subject: Re: AFL tipping '93
Reply-To: ptaylor@airfarce.Canada.Sun.COM
Organization: Sun Microsystems
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1992 13:26:15 GMT


justin@tasman.cc.utas.edu.au (Justin Ridge) writes:
> 
> ADMINISTRIVIA:
> * As mentioned last week, if you would like to be notified of next years
>   Tipping Competition via Email before Round 1 '93 (so that you are 'in'
>   from the beginning), please include a line stating this with your tips...
>   something like "please add me to the notification list" is eloquently
>   sufficient. :-)  I have already added those who requested this last week.
> 
> SUGGESTIONS FOR NEXT YEAR:
> When you read the above line, you may have thought "oh no, why does he
> bother?"  Well, the answer is quite simple: this competition stays alive for
> two basic reasons -- first and foremost, there is a demand for it, and
> secondly, I enjoy doing it :)  Clearly, if the competition changes in a way
> that people are not happy with, less people will participate and hence the
> demand is not being met, which means the competition has gone backwards rather
> than improving.
> So here is the opportunity to make any comments [perhaps you want to see less
> rubbish from me :)] while they are still fresh in your mind rather than wait
> until next year and think "bah, this competition is no good any more".
> 
> A number of people have already suggested various improvements.  Some are
> quite minor ones that I think everyone will agree with -- for example, that
> in the case of two people having equal percentage, the person who has tipped
> in a larger number of games takes precedence -- so to conserve space they are
> not all listed here.
> 
> Other suggestions are:
> * That the software be adapted to recognise more team names (e.g. "St.Kilda",
>   "St. Kilda" and "Saint Kilda" rather than just the first of these).
> * That State of Origin matches etc. be included as bonuses.
> * That participants have the option of some alias appearing in the results
>   lists rather than their Email addresses.
> 
> And finally, one MAJOR one (which actually comes from me):
> 
> You may have observed from the cumulative totals that of the 74 people on the
> main list, 64 are bunched within a single 10% range (62-72%).  This means that
> a LOT of people are managing to tip 4-5 out of 7 games per week, and separating
> them on the basis of 0.1% becomes a little meaningless.  Mainly as a result of
> this observation, I set about thinking of some modifications to the system...
> 
> I propose that we have a "weighted" tipping competition next year.  This would
> work as follows:  Rather than see a simple list of matches in the form
> 
> Round 1 1993 (fictional)
> ------------------------
> Geelong    v. Brisbane
> North Melb v. Richmond
> 
> as is presently the case, there would also be an "anticipated" winning margin
> where a result is predicted, i.e.
> 
> Round 1 1993 (fictional)
> ------------------------
> Geelong    v. Brisbane    -- Geelong    by 50 points
> North Melb v. Richmond    -- North Melb by 16 points
> 
> Rather than simply pick the winner, the participant's new task would be to
> PREDICT WHICH TEAM WILL PERFORM BETTER THAN THE ANTICIPATED RESULT.  Thus, in
> the above examples:
> 
> * GEELONG  is correct answer if - Geelong win by 50 points plus
>                                   (as they have done better than predicted)
> * BRISBANE is correct answer if - Brisbane win the match
>                                 - Geelong win by less than 50 points
>                                   (as Brisbane have done better than expected).
> 
> * N.MELB   is correct answer if - N.Melb win by 16 points plus
>                                   (as they have done better than predicted)
> * RICHMOND is correct answer if - Richmond win the match
>                                 - N.Melb win by less than 16 points
>                                   (as Richmond have done better than expected).
> 
> I can think of two advantages and disadvantages of this system over the
> presend one:
> 1) It spreads out the cumulative totals list, which at present is very
>    cluttered, a bit more.
> 2) A big advantage is that it adds a great deal of interest to games that
>    would otherwise be thrashings.  For example, if Geelong were to play
>    Brisbane, it is likely that 95%+ would tip Geelong.  However, if a 50
>    point winning margin to Geelong was anticipated as above, people would
>    have to think a lot harder before making the prediction
> 
> 3) Perhaps the biggest disadvantage is that the alternative system is more
>    complicated than the present one.  After all, the weighted system requires
>    a bit of understanding whereas simply choosing the winner of the game is
>    an infinitely more simple concept.
>    However, I believe that the changes do not increase the complexity all
>    THAT much and are in fact a good compromise between keeping the comp
>    interesting and retaining simplicity so that everyone can join in.
> 4) The other disadvantage is that whilst people can find rosters easily in
>    the paper if they miss them on the newsgroups, the "weighted" roster will
>    appear only on the network.  I don't think this affects many people... it
>    seems to me that most people have fairly stable access to the network.
>    If this presents a difficulty, it is always possible to mail the roster
>    via Email each week.
> 
> There may be others...
> 
> Please feel free to respond to me (justin@tasman.cc...) and let me know your
> opinion on this proposal (remember it is ONLY a proposal) and any additional
> remarks you might have.
> I apologise for the length of this post, however it is important that things
> are sorted out before next year, and for this reason it will be repeated
> next week.

Up here in the other hemisphere, we call that a "Point-Spread" system.
It's used in many NFL football pools (like the one in this office :^}
as an equalizer and it *does* generate interest in even the acknowledged
blowouts......for example we might all agree that Washington will trample
Tampa Bay  but can T.Bay keep difference down to 2 touchdowns?  On their 
home field?  OR....can Brisbane keep their loss to Geelong under 100 points?

There are "oddsmakers", most of whom are based in Las Vegas, who set "the
spreads" for a given weeks game at after the prior week's games are done.
Does anyone do the same in Oz?

By all means use pointspreads.  It can make *every* game a tough pick,
and should spread the players' results all over the map.

						Cheers! PKT
___________________________________________________________________________
Peter K. Taylor				phone:	(416) 477 - 6745  ext. 2302
Sun Microsystems of Canada, Inc.	fax:	(416) 477 - 9423
100 Renfrew Dr.
Markham, ON	
L3T 5B8
	

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