From: schinder@leprss.gsfc.nasa.gov (Paul J. Schinder)
Subject: Re: traffic rules (was: Hints on commuting by bike?)
Reply-To: schinder@leprss.gsfc.nasa.gov
Organization: Goddard Space Flight Center
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 1992 00:09:09 GMT

In <1SEP199216330749@xenon.arc.nasa.gov> laforce@xenon.arc.nasa.gov (Soren LaForce) writes:

>In article <schinder.715365481@leprss.gsfc.nasa.gov>, schinder@leprss.gsfc.nasa.gov writes...
>>In <1SEP199208502942@xenon.arc.nasa.gov> laforce@xenon.arc.nasa.gov (Soren LaForce) writes:
>> 
>>>In article <12hnx0_.tomk@netcom.com>, tomk@netcom.com (Thomas H. Kunich) writes...
>> 
>>>> 
>>>>Furthermore, there were on the order of 850 fatalities each year
>>>>from bicycle accidents vs. the 50,000 per year in auto accidents.
>> 
>>>Same comment.  Normalize the numbers to miles driven.  You list 
>>>about 60 times more auto fatalities per year than bicycle fatalities.
>>>Considering that there are probably much more than 60 times the number
>>>of auto miles driven (and more relevently, much more than 60 times
>>>the number of auto hours driven) the bike satistics don't look too good.
>> 
>>I wouldn't be so sure if I were you.  The average car in the US is
>>used for around 10000 miles a year.  If the average bike goes only 200
>>miles it's within a factor of 50.  In my childhood I was a fan of
>>speedometers, so I know I easily rode 200 miles per year then.  A few
>>miles a day over the course of a summer will do it. (Of course, this
>>year I rode about 5000, within a factor of two of my car milage.) My
>>vague recollection is (anyone out there with a copy of Forester's book
>>at hand?) that the per mile risk of driving and bicycling is about the
>>same (which would mean bicycling is safer per hour).

>Paul, you have some good points, but...

>First, my own experiences do NOT agree with that, do yours?

Which experience do you mean?  As you say, 60 times more people are
killed while driving than while riding (anyone know what the injury
ratio is?).  I thought you were saying that because more than 60 times
more miles are done in cars than on bikes, bicycling is less safe.  I
don't think you can reasonably say that about the mileage without
further proof, based on my experience as a child bicyclist, where I
put on about 1/50th of the average motor vehicle milage per year.
Based on vague recollections of what I've read in cycling magazines
and browsing Forester's book, the risk per mile is about the same
whether riding or driving.

As an adult, even now in the last month when my driving has enormously
gone up and I'm driving 400 miles per week, I spend about as much time
on the roads on a bike as in the car.  My time in the car is
objectively less safe.  Almost all my driving miles are done at night
(prime drunk time), and only about three quarters on limited access
highways.  I bicycle during daylight, and of course remain as visible
as possible.

(Incidentally, for those who were involved in the "bike path" debate
in sci.environment a month ago, I've been keeping track of "delay
minutes" since I started driving frequently.  So far motor vehicles
have caused me about 1 hour delay, chiefly from traffic backups behind
car-car collisions.  Zero minutes delay have been due to cyclists.)

>Second, 15,000 miles per driver per year is closer (certainly in 
>california).  AND, pretty much everyone drives a car, not even close to 
>everyone rides a bike (unfortuneately).  I mean, if you don't ride a bike,
>you'll never be killed on one.

But most Americans have ridden a bike on the roads at some point in
their lives.

>> 
>>>I ride bikes.  I drive cars.  Both populations have lots of idiots.
>>>I do not fear for my life anywhere near as often in the car.  
>> 
>>But maybe you should.  Irrational fears are tough to lose, but may not
>>be warranted by facts.

>Yeah, but I like to reserve my worrying for the rational fears!  Anyway,
>since when is fearing for ones life irrational?  I'm not talking about
>a constant condition, just when some jerk is looking one way and driving
>the other.  And I happen to be where he's driving.

It's not, but your fear should be as great in the car as on the bike,
since your risk is about the same.  That steel armor that you feel
protects you may become a coffin instead.  If some jerk is looking one
way and driving another (that seemed to be common problem in
California during the year I live there), he might take you out in
your car, too.  If nothing else, you're a bigger target in the car.

>The facts are that most car drivers see other cars, but may or may not
>see pedistrians, bikes, motorcycles, horses, etc.

Don't blame the victims for the shortcomings of motorists.  *I* have
no problem seeing peds, bikes, motorcycles, etc., when I'm driving.
Based on my experience, most car drivers don't have a problem seeing
me when I'm riding.  Some go out of their way to let me know they see
me with their noisemakers.  If there are motorists are callous enough
not to bother to look for peds, bikes, motorcycles, etc., then they
(those individual motorists) should be removed from the roads
permanently.

>> 
>>Paul J. Schinder
>>NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
>>schinder@leprss.gsfc.nasa.gov



>--Soren            laforce@xenon.arc.nasa.gov
--
--------
Paul J. Schinder
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
schinder@leprss.gsfc.nasa.gov
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.soc