From: fierro@uts.amdahl.com (Doug Fierro)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro
Subject: Re: NFL_1992 Scoreboard: Predictions for Week 11 and Results
Date: 20 Nov 92 19:45:11 GMT
Distribution: world,local
Organization: Amdahl Corporation, Sunnyvale CA

In article <1992Nov16.230924.1@violet.ccit.arizona.edu> f67700241@violet.ccit.arizona.edu (Greg Franklin) writes:
>Here are the results of the computer program's predictions for Week 11.
>The program picked 7 of 14 games correctly, a so-so total, but two of
>its more remarkable picks were NE-Ind and Buf-Mia.
>===

  Kinda late with week11 stuff, but what the heck...


>        
>                     Week #11 Game Predictions
>
>
	incorrect; close		incorrect; notclose

>       Phoenix        _17   26          L.A. Rams      _27   16
>
>     @ Atlanta        _20   23        @ Dallas         _23   28
>
>
	incorrect; notclose		incorrect; close

>
>       Philadelphia   _24   25          Houston        _17   22
>
>     @ Green Bay      _27   10        @ Minnesota      _13   27
>
>
	correct; notclose		incorrect; close

>
>       New Orleans    _20   19          Chicago        _17   30
>
>     @ San Francisco  _21   28        @ Tampa Bay      _20   21
>
>
	correct; close			incorrect; notclose

>
>       San Diego      _14   21          N.Y. Giants    _13   24
>
>     @ Cleveland      _13   17        @ Denver         _27   21
>
>
	correct; close			incorrect; notclose

>
>       New England    _37   17          Washington     _16   22
>
>     @ Indianapolis   _34   15        @ Kansas City    _35   18
>
>
	correct; notclose		correct; close

>
>       Seattle        __3   11          Buffalo        _26   30
>
>     @ L.A. Raiders   _20   19        @ Miami          _20   24
>
>
	correct; close			correct; close

>
>       Cincinnati     _14   21          Detroit        _14   18
>
>     @ N.Y. Jets      _17   23        @ Pittsburgh     _17   23
>-- 
>Greg "Mockingbird" Franklin      Interviewer: "Sir, how do you spell relief?"
>f67700241@ccit.arizona.edu               Dan: "R-O-L-A-I-D-S-E."

total games: 14
total correct: 7
total incorrect: 7
total of close predictions: 8
total of correct predictions that were close: 5
total of incorrect predictions that were close: 3

 (close is defined as less than 7 points between the predicted point
  spread and the actual point spread)

 Not, bad, considering another prediction program I analyzed.  I think
you have to take close predictions into account when evaluating a
prediction program, but the number of correct games predicted will always
outweigh the importance of the closeness of the predictions.  Your method
did better than the one below both in total number of correct predictions
and total number of close predictions.  It is also better to have close
predictions for correct picks than close predictions for incorrect picks.
Again, your method won out in this category as well over the one below.  
(I'm not picking on the guy's predictions below, just analyzing both sets of 
predictions).  I'm not sure how much I would weigh these different categories-
it depends on if you are betting big $$$ or not :-)

>>This is in response to Mr. Koontz's football prediction algorithm.
>>We have decided to develop our own since his is so ridiculous.
>>
>>This letter is to let all the football fans out there know that we
>>have developed an algorithm called "The Four-Horsemen" Algorithm.  We have
>>just updated all pertinent information about the professional teams and
>>below is a list of our predictions.  This is our first set of predictions
>>and we will be 'tweaking' it as necessary.
>>
>>This algorithm takes these (and many other proprietary factors) into effect :
>>
>>Note : Not in order of importance.
>>
>>* home field
>>* injuries
>>* weather
>>* any personal 'strifes' in players lives
>>* performance of other pro teams in area (ex: for Steelers, performance of
>>  Penguins)
>>* performance throughout year
>>* heavy consideration for last weeks performance
>>* Personal bias  ;)
>>* Biorhythm of starting QB (mathematically calculated)
>>  Many more.  These are just a few examples.
>>
>>Now for the predictions :

			(close is less than 7 points difference from
			 predicted and actual point spread between both teams)

Monday : Buffalo 28	correct; close
         Miami   26

Denver 27		correct; not close
Giants 24

Chicago	  17		incorrect; close
Tampa Bay 14

Seattle	      7		correct; close
L.A. Raiders 24

L.A. Rams 10		incorrect; wayoff
Dallas    35

New Orleans 27		incorrect; close
S.F. 49ers  21

San Diego 10		incorrect; not close
Cleveland 20

Phoenix 10		incorrect; not close
Atlanta 21

New England   9		incorrect; close
Indy         15

Philadelphia 17		incorrect; way off
Green Bay     3

Houston    24		incorrect; close
Minnesota  27

Detroit    21
Pittsburgh 31		correct, not close

Cincinnati 13
N.Y. Jets  14		correct; close

Washington  14
Kansas City 17		correct; not close


Total games: 14
total correct: 6
total incorrect: 8
total of close predictions: 7
total of correct predictions that were close: 3
total of incorrect predictions that were close: 4


>>This was posted for a friend.  Flames and responses should be sent to:
>>
>>curfman@cards.com

-- 
                                                     Doug Fierro
                                      |\             UTS System Software
  O                         __________|_\______      CASE tools development
  \_.______________________| * * * * * * * * */      fierro@uts.amdahl.com
 __\____                   |=================/       (408)746-7102
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Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro