From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- AL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 17:30:54 GMT

                  AL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
               (through games of Sunday, September 27,
              missing last Friday's Seattle/Texas game)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Mussina        BAL   16.5   7.5  0.687   17  5   2.64   45.2   4.43
Clemens        BOS   17.4   8.6  0.669   18 11   2.92   42.9   4.26
Appier         KCR   15.1   6.6  0.695   15  8   2.55   42.6   4.03
Eldred         MIL    7.5   1.5  0.838   10  1   1.36   29.2   2.97
Nagy           CLE   15.3   9.4  0.620   16 10   3.28   30.5   2.83
Guzman,Ju      TOR   12.3   6.7  0.650   15  5   2.92   26.5   2.66
Abbott         CAL   13.4   8.0  0.626    7 15   3.01   29.4   2.55
McDowell       CHI   15.2  10.1  0.600   20  9   3.31   28.9   2.36
Smiley         MIN   15.2  10.4  0.595   15  9   3.57   25.8   2.48
Navarro        MIL   15.2  10.6  0.588   17 11   3.63   20.4   2.24
Perez,M        NYY   14.3  10.4  0.578   12 16   3.45   24.7   1.67
Erickson       MIN   13.0   9.3  0.584   13 11   3.62   21.7   1.89
Fleming        SEA   14.3  10.5  0.575   16 10   3.88   16.5   1.75
Bosio          MIL   14.1  10.4  0.575   16  5   3.72   17.1   1.77
Viola          BOS   14.7  11.3  0.566   12 12   3.89   15.9   1.75
Wegman         MIL   14.7  11.4  0.564   12 14   3.65   21.1   1.69
Brown,K        TEX   15.1  11.8  0.562   20 10   3.85   16.2   1.56
Welch          OAK    7.9   5.0  0.615   11  6   3.14   13.2   1.27
Key            TOR   12.6  10.1  0.555   12 13   3.63   14.8   1.13
Tapani         MIN   12.9  11.2  0.537   16 11   4.16   10.4   1.00



Bottom 10 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong      CLE    5.2  11.4  0.314    3 15   6.37  -28.1  -3.05
Terrell        DET    2.9   7.6  0.275    3  6   6.98  -24.1  -2.32
Milacki        BAL    4.3   8.9  0.326    6  7   6.19  -20.0  -2.10
Slusarski      OAK    2.5   6.9  0.266    5  5   6.25  -18.6  -2.04
Wells          TOR    3.4   7.0  0.324    6  7   7.70  -30.0  -1.90
McCaskill      CHI    9.6  13.2  0.420   11 12   4.89  -11.7  -1.69
Stieb          TOR    3.3   6.9  0.321    3  6   5.92  -15.1  -1.69
Sanderson      NYY    9.8  13.2  0.426   12 10   5.24  -18.1  -1.68
Hanson         SEA    9.0  12.4  0.420    7 17   5.53  -17.2  -1.63
Aldred         DET    2.4   5.8  0.292    2  6   6.99  -17.7  -1.57



Luckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Morris         TOR   12.8  12.7    20  6   13.9
Bosio          MIL   14.0  10.4    16  5    7.4
Brown,K        TEX   15.1  11.8    20 10    6.7
Darling        OAK   10.9  12.4    15 10    6.5
Hibbard        CHI    8.1  11.2    10  7    6.1
Moore          OAK   11.0  14.0    15 12    6.1
McDowell       CHI   15.2  10.1    20  9    6.0
Sanderson      NYY    9.7  13.2    12 10    5.5
Guzman,Ju      TOR   11.8   6.7    15  5    4.8
Wickman        NYY    2.2   2.8     5  1    4.7



Unluckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         CAL   13.1   8.0     7 15  -13.1
Perez,M        NYY   13.9  10.4    12 16   -7.5
Hanson         SEA    8.9  12.4     7 17   -6.5
Armstrong      CLE    5.2  11.4     3 15   -5.8
Wegman         MIL   14.7  11.4    12 14   -5.3
Ryan           TEX    9.3   8.8     5  9   -4.5
Reed           KCR    4.2   5.9     1  7   -4.2
Valera         CAL   10.3   9.1     7 10   -4.1
Gardiner       BOS    4.5   6.7     2  8   -3.8
Chiamparino    TEX    1.4   0.7     0  3   -3.7



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL     63.6   52.3   0.549   61.8   66  49   3.90   3.89   5.82
MIN     59.9   52.3   0.534   58.5   63  49   4.14   3.92   4.00
BOS     60.1   54.0   0.527   58.3   49  61   4.16   4.02   3.32
CAL     59.0   57.3   0.507   57.5   46  66   4.14   4.24   0.82
BAL     57.1   56.0   0.505   55.5   62  56   4.29   4.29   1.12
KCR     53.7   53.9   0.499   51.0   48  56   4.42   4.43   0.09
TOR     57.3   59.5   0.490   55.9   72  53   4.46   4.60  -1.51
TEX     63.5   67.6   0.484   62.4   66  71   4.50   4.45  -1.77
CHI     54.3   60.6   0.473   53.2   59  51   4.45   4.48  -2.67
NYY     51.0   60.8   0.456   49.9   49  62   4.76   4.78  -4.89
OAK     51.1   61.5   0.454   48.8   65  51   4.55   4.87  -5.18
SEA     50.8   63.1   0.446   49.1   46  69   5.16   4.94  -5.70
CLE     49.6   62.2   0.443   48.2   43  64   5.14   5.05  -6.03
DET     44.4   66.2   0.401   42.6   51  59   5.28   5.43 -10.32
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AL     775.1  827.3   0.484  752.9  785 817   4.51   4.51 -22.89


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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