HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: steve@cucbs.chem.columbia.edu (Steve Stuart)
Subject: self-fulfilling vs. self-destroying prophecies
Organization: Center for Biomolecular Simulation, Department of Chemistry,
	Columbia University
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 23:19:15 GMT


Here's a question that's been percolating in my brain for a while:

Someone (in the Random Walk thread) mentioned that technical analysis
has become a self-fulfilling prophecy - since so many people *believe*
in head-and-shoulders-tops, they all sell when they see one, and
presto, the price goes down.  Or everyone buys at an "obvious" bottom,
and presto, the price goes up.

Another argument that I've heard regarding various technical analysis
or correlation-type techniques is that anyone with a working system
would have to be crazy to publicize it.  Say you had noticed that the
market usually goes up on the 19th of every month.  So you start
buying on the 18th and selling on the 20th.  If you tell everyone your
idea, they'll *all* buy on the 19th, except for those who want to beat
the rush and buy on the 18th, etc.  Until the anomaly gets completely
washed out, and the only risk-free rise will have started far enough
back that you could do as well in T-bills.

When you boil these two arguments down, they seem to be saying:
(1) This system (tech. analysis) works because everyone believes it.
(2) This system works only because nobody knows about it.

So what's the difference?  It seems like each argument could (sort of)
be applied to the other case:  If *everyone* bought on the 18th, of
course the price would rise on the 19th - a self-fulfilling prophecy.
And if everyone knows about head-and-shoulders tops, why not start
selling selling on your way up the left arm, and wash out the entire
pattern?  (Yes, these arguments are flawed - see below)

The only difference I can see between these cases is the following:
if the "system" is of the form "Whenever X happens, the price will
rise/fall", you have a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The important point
seems to be that you can't predict X very well until it happens.  If,
on the other hand, your system takes the form "At some future time,
which this system specifies, the price will rise/fall," then you have
a self-destroying prophecy.  Here, the important point is that you can
see the event coming long ahead of time.

I'm not at all sure whether this difference ("signal predictability"?)
is the only important factor, or even if anything I've said is
correct.  So has anyone else wondered about this?  Or can anyone shed
any more light on the subject?






-- 
-Steve

echo "a'rfg cnf Crpv | har" | tr '[a-m][n-z] ' '[n-z][a-m]\012' | sort | tr "\012" " " ; echo " "
From: goykhman_a@apollo.hp.com (Alex Goykhman)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Any opinions on Borland?
Date: 6 Nov 92 17:40:01 GMT
Article-I.D.: apollo.BxB2Ep.6GC
Organization: Hewlett-Packard Company, Chelmsford, MA

In article <1992Nov5.205206.6561@cs.yale.edu> choo@cs.yale.edu (Young-il Choo) writes:
>Any opinions on how well Borland will do in the next year or two?  
>
>Their stock at 31 seems to be close to their recent low of 26 and far below
>their high of 86 not too long ago.  Any ideas on why the dramatic drop?  Is
>it just the economy or the influence of Microsoft?
>
>How are they doing with Paradox, dBase IV and Quatro Pro?  Will their sort-of
>alliance with WordPerfect ward off the domaination by the MS and Lotus?

    I think the market may be concerned with a price war that is about 
    to hit the PC software market.
-- 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: all opinions are mine.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: 13501TMC@MSU (Tim Casey)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: ***BUY HARKEN ENERGY (HEC) NOW!!!!!
Date: 11 Nov 92 15:52:14 GMT
Organization: Michigan State University


     Harken energy just received drilling rights off the island of Bahrain off
of the coast of Saudi Arabia. It is a relatively new company, but it has been a
round since the Gulf War. The Bass family of Texas has provided the funding for
the drilling of three wells only. The first well was dry, but the stock went
from $3 to $8 with huge volume traded during several weeks prior to drilling.
The stock dropped dramatically within one week after discovery that well #1 was
dry. They are due to drill again in eight weeks or less and anticipation is
expected to be the same. This is the unique situation this stock offers. Three
strikes and your'e out. The count is one and oh, and the batter could hit a
run.

     If you watch this one close, you'll be ok. My broker has been to Harken
conferences and has met the president. The stock is very low, so it can't fall
very far; PLUS it has just acuired an exclusive six month contract to drill in
natural gas rich Venezalia. Oh, I forgot to add, my broker has invested in this
stock and so has a great majority of his clients. I would not let this oppor-
tunity go. TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS ABOUT THIS AND LOOK IN TO THIS STOCK. /tmc
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: jli@bingham.utah.edu (Jianliang Li)
Subject: ~~~~~~~ LIST OF NO-LOAD MUTUALS (Phone No.) ~~~~~~~
Organization: University of Utah
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 92 18:54:13 GMT


	I am trying to find the phone numbers of some no-load mutual fund
companies.  Does anybody have a list of all the no-load mutual fund companies
(phone numbers)?  I would appreciate if you could post it or send a copy to
me?  Thanks in advance.


JLI
================================================================================
      	 	       ******* RULES OF LIFE ******* 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
	     RULE NO. 1:  YOUR BOSS IS ALWAYS RIGHT!
	     RULE NO. 2:  IF YOUR BOSS IS WRONG, GO TO RULE NO. 1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        JLI@MINES.UTAH.EDU (Jianliang Li)    PENN STATE '90  UTAH '2000
================================================================================


Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: fritz@fc.sde.hp.com (Gary Fritz)
Subject: Re: Boycott Colorado
Organization: HP SESD, Fort Collins, CO
X-Newsreader: TIN [version 1.1.4 PL6]
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 1992 22:36:05 GMT

You may be assured that there are many (though apparently not enough)
people in Colorado who are embarrassed, revolted, and disgusted by the
passage of Amendment 2.  I think your boycott is a good idea.  Maybe
it will create enough attention to let these apparent bigots know that
the rest of the world finds their conduct execrable.  Just make sure
that you make it VERY clear -- to the management, not to the clerk
on the phone -- why you are closing your account.  Write letters to
the Denver papers explaining why Colorado has lost your business.

By the way, there was an article in today's Denver paper that said
a doctor's organization had already cancelled their Denver convention
because of Amendment 2.  One of the ringleaders of "Colorado for Family
Values", the people responsible for Amendment 2, said this was "the
kind of intimidation the homosexuals like to use."  Ye gods.

Gary Fritz
A disgusted Colorado resident
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: pkrause@triton.unm.edu (Paul Krause CIRT)
Subject: Valuation rules for income property
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 92 21:37:12 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

Some jargon slipped into my posting on Real estate values so I thought I should
explain a few of my terms in more detail.

Income property is often valued at x times the gross, in my discussion I said
8 times gross was to high.  Gross here is the annual gross income from a 
property.  If you have a 10 unit building and each unit rents for $400 per
month then your gross is $48,000.00.  8 times that would be $384,000.  

I then used the slippery word "expenses" .

I should have said that with a larger property (to large to do all your own
work) all the costs except principal and interest will total up to about
45% of the annual gross income.  In the case above that would leave $26,400 
for debt service.  $2,200 per month at 10% on a 30 year loan will pay off
$250,000.  That is for a breakeven operation.  Your hope of profit depends
on Lowering the expenses (hard to do in my opinion), raising the rents,
and/or appreciation.  In the absence of rent raises why should there be any
appreciation?

Obviously you can change some of the assumptions and alter the exact dollar
amounts.  However, my point is that I see no reason why prices shouldn't 
fall until the property makes sense on an income basis.  I would love to
hear from people who can buy this kind of property at prices which will
produce a positive cash flow and a 10-15 year payout of the debt service.

Paul
 


Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: kevinn@kpc.com (Kevin Nguyen)
Subject: Legal Advise on Double Escrow Accounts Please
Organization: Kubota Pacific Computer Inc, Santa Clara, CA
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 00:54:48 GMT


Hi everyone,

There months ago I deposited $3000.00 into the Escrow account for the house I wanted to buy.  However, the loan did not approve by the leander due to my credit history.  The sellers sold this house to another buyer and it schedules to close next week.  However, the sellers still hold my $3000.00 in the Escrow account and the Escrow account due to close next week.  Is this legal?  What should I do in this case?  How do I get my money back.

Please use my E-mail address below.

Thanks in advance.

Kevinn
-- 

Kevin Nguyen				Kubota Pacific Computer Inc.
Internet E-mail kevinn@kpc.com		uucp E-mail kpc.com!kevinn
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: smierch@fun.com (Edward Smierciak)
Subject: PMI question
Reply-To: smierch@fun.com
Organization: Sun Microsystems, Inc.
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 92 21:09:25 GMT


I am buying a single family home in CT with 10% down.

I am considering considering financing the PMI (paying the entire premium
up front): approx. $5900 on a $180,000 property.  What are the benefits/disadvantages
of doing this as opposed to paying as I go.  Thanks.


Ed Smierciak
From: mike@brt.com (Mike Kirkish)
Subject: Refinance with same lender
Organization: BRT
X-Newsreader: Tin 1.1 PL5
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1992 18:29:56 GMT

Is it a mistake to refinance a home loan with the same lender
that holds the current mortgage? 

Here are the sad details:

About 2 months ago I chose to refinance my home loan with the
lender that holds my current loan, Source 1 Mortgage
Company, largely because their agent told me that they 
probably would not require a new appraisal. They also asked 
for much less paperwork than my local loan broker. I locked
in a very good rate for 45 days. A month ago, the refinance
was not yet approved so their agent told me over the phone that
she would extend the lock. Unfortunately, I didn't request that
she confirm that in writing. Now she claims that the loan was
held up because there was a missing "Deed of Reconveyance". 
Furthermore, my lock has expired but they would be happy to lock
me in at a rate that is 1/2 point higher. The title agent that
handled the original title 5 years ago told me that a missing
Deed of Reconveyance is a minor technicality and he has never heard
of a loan being held up for this reason. 

I realize that a mortgage company has every financial incentive to
discourage their customers from refinancing when rates are low. I
feel like I was suckered into this deal with the "no appraisal"
requirement which would save me about $500. Is there a rule of thumb
that it is wise to go with a new lender on a refinance? Is it 
feasible that a loan company would waive the appraisal requirement
on a refinance from an existing customer?

Thanks.
From: jms@vision.sarnoff.com (Jerry Shapiro x2420)
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
Subject: Re: PMI question
Date: 11 Nov 92 22:53:06 GMT
Reply-To: jms@vision.sarnoff.com
Organization: David Sarnoff Research Center

You're paying an extra $5900 to borrow an extra $18000!
 (The difference between 10 and 20%)
That's 33 non-deductable points in addition to the regular interest!

PMI is a ripoff, but I would never pay it up front. Also, 3.6% PMI
seems quite high for a 10% loan. Look for a second mortgage. If I
remember correctly, HFC (Household Finance) will give you a variable
rate second mortgage for 8 percent above prime, but the interest is
deductable. If you can pay back the 18K in less than a few years,
that's probably better than PMI.  Even if you have to borrow from
credit cards, its less interest.

Jerry Shapiro
From: kumar@raleng.mtc.com
Subject: Rental property as investment
Organization: Memorex Telex, Raleigh, N.C.
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 17:39:16 GMT

I am considering purchasing a condominium or single family home for rental
investment purposes. I already own a primary residence. I would like to hear
about the advantages and disadvantages. Thanks in advance.
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: macrakis@osf.org (Stavros Macrakis)
Subject: Re: Refinance with same lender
Organization: OSF Research Institute
Date: 13 Nov 92 12:20:40

In article <1992Nov13.010921.4702@meaddata.com> andyw@meaddata.com (Andy Welter) writes:

   if a morgage rate is below prevailing rates, who would buy the morgage 
   at face value? 

The original question was: "why would they issue a mortgage to you
when rates are low?"  Not "why would they issue a mortgage that is
lower than prevailing rates?"

	-s
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: pkrause@triton.unm.edu (Paul Krause CIRT)
Subject: Re: Real Estate News Summary, Part 126
Date: Thu, 05 Nov 92 16:36:28 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
Distribution: usa

In article <1992Nov4.193255.24579@adobe.com> hamachi@adobe.com (Gordon Hamachi) writes:
>Real Estate News Summary, Part 126, September, 1992
>
>990. Bay Area house sales fell 9.6% in August, for the 5th straight month. The
>     median price dropped 2.5% to $257,140.  Area sales fell 3.8% and prices
>     fell 2.7% from a year ago.  Statewide sales fell 10.4% and prices fell

I don't want to spread gloom and doom because, at least around ABQ, real 
estate remains a good a investment, but, I don't think the price changes
shown so far really reflect how bad things can get.  

Pagosa Springs, CO is a resort area in the SW part of the state.  In the early
1980's the economy there was going great with lots of out of state people 
building/buying second homes.  Then oil prices went down, the Texans stayed
home and things got real bad.  I personally know of a case where people bought
a condo in 1982 for $85,000.  When they had to sell it in 1987 they still owed
$65,000 and sold it for $29,000.  To save their credit they came out of 
pocket for the balance.  

I was in San Francisco last week and picked up some of the real estate papers.
I saw income property listed for 5.5 (handyman) to 8 times gross. Correct me
if I am wrong, but I don't know anyone who can keep operating expenses much
under 45% (count your time at market value).  That leaves at best 50-55% for
debt service.  If I apply the 8 times gross rule to my 4-plex here it should
be worth $140,000.  In reality, I would be lucky to get $90,000.  

In other words, I think prices in many places could drop a long way before 
their market value has a reasonable relationship to their income value.

Paul
From: bd670@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Russell I. Dyreng)
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
Subject: Re: PMI question
Date: 9 Nov 1992 20:11:39 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio (USA)
NNTP-Posting-Host: hela.ins.cwru.edu


smierch@fun.com (Edward Smierciak) writes:

>I am buying a single family home in CT with 10% down.
>
>I am considering considering financing the PMI (paying the 
>entire premium up front): approx. $5900 on a $180,000 property.
>What are the benefits/disadvantages of doing this as opposed to 
>paying as I go.  Thanks.
>
>
>Ed Smierciak

If given the choice, I would do the pay as I go method.  Let me 
tell you why.

1.  Time value of money.  I would much rather pay off an (IMHO)
unneeded expense with inflated future dollars than with my 1992
dollars.

2.  Early loan repayment or refinancing.  If I pay off the loan
early I no longer have to make a PMI payment.  You will probably
receive a refund for the unused portion of the premium, but as 
with the above reason, this time *you* will be the one to 
receive payment in inflated future year dollars.  In other words
the PMI company will have free use of your money for how ever 
many years the policy is to be in force.  A better approach 
would be to take the $5900, or however much is left after the 
initial payment, and stick it in a savings account, money market
fund, AMA, CD, or whatever.  Make the monthly payment from that
account, and YOU keep the interest instead of giving it away.

I hope that this helps.

Good luck.
-- 
Russ
bd670@cleveland.freenet.edu
Remember-any advice that I give you may be worth exactly what
you paid for it.
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: jvinson@xsoft.xerox.com (Jeffrey A Vinson)
Subject: Cabin for Sale - Pioneer, CA (Rt. 88)
Date: Mon, 9 Nov 1992 12:26:55 PST
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X-To: misc.invest.real-estate.usenet


************************************************************************

	LITTLE RED CABIN FOR SALE - Great getaway!!
			Pioneer, CA  (Rt 88)

* 12 years old,  2 BR/1 Bath, 900+ sq.ft.
* Great deck overlooking completely wooded lot
* 1 Acre total land; backs up to county land/forest; deer on property

* Well-insulated house, quality construction, double paned windows
* Pump for heat and cooling
* 2 cable jacks; 2 phone jacks
* 2 windows in each bedroom; 6 in living area
* Wood burning fire place insert (with fan)
* Full kitchen (AEK,  range, oven, D/W, disposal)
* County water; septic tank
* Laundry hookups
* Most *furniture* available for bid (beds, stereo, couches, etc.)

* 3 hours from bay area
* 2 miles off Route 88
* Quiet, peaceful dead-end street
* altitude: 3500 ft.
* Kirkwood 40 minutes away for great skiing (Iron Mt.- 30 mins)
* 18 hole golf course nearby; great restaurants
* Gold country nearby; wine tasting

Listed for $100K. For more information, contact Jeff Vinson
		  daytime phone:  415.813.7492 
		  email: JVinson.OSBU_North@Xerox.com or
		  vinson@migration.com
************************************************************************

Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: michael@fox.mentorg.com (Michael Brouhard)
Subject: REITs
Originator: michael@fox
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 1992 22:46:41 GMT
Organization: Mentor Graphics 
Keywords: 
Followup-To: 


I recently ran across a reference to an investment instrument
called a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).  I gather that it
is sort of a mutual fund for real estate investments.  Can anybody
provide a primer on REITs and/or recommendations?

Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate,misc.consumers
From: charleen@ADS.COM (Charleen Bunjiovianna)
Subject: Re: Is condo developer responsible for under-crediting?
Organization: The Original Estrogen-Crazed Lust Bunnies
Distribution: ba
Date: Mon, 9 Nov 1992 16:19:11 GMT

In article <1992Nov6.221724.7754@leland.Stanford.EDU> kmh@leland.Stanford.EDU (khanhmy hoang) writes:
>	I bought a new condo in September and have just received my county tax
>	bill. My first installment is supposed to also cover the months of July
>	and August when I wasn't the owner of the unit. At closing, the title
>	company credited me an amount to cover these 2 months for the developer.
>	Unfortunately, the amount was based on a previous year's tax bill and
>	was much lower than the actual tax I will have to pay for those 2
>	months.
>
>	I would like to know if the developer is required by law to make up the
>	difference and if not how should this be best handled.

No, the developer (or previous owner) is not required to make up the
difference.

As it said in the leaflet you should have gotten in your tax bill,
the county assessor is required to reassess the property at market value
when a change in ownership or completion of new construction occurs.
I agree that it seems unfair that you (and I, BTW; I bought a condo in
September, too) should have to pay the difference in tax for the portion
of the tax year in which we didn't own the property, but that's the way
it is.

Sounds like you've gotten your supplemental tax bill already (or the
county reassessed the property before sending out the regular tax bill).
I haven't gotten mine yet.

In addition, I got hit with a "special assessment" from the homeowners
association that was voted in by the homeowners some months *before* I
bought the unit.  I don't think I should have to pay that, either, but
that's still undetermined.

Charleen
--
What is it that makes a complete stranger dive into an icy river to save a
solid gold baby? Maybe we'll never know.
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
From: pkrause@triton.unm.edu (Paul Krause CIRT)
Subject: Re: Ceramic tile wall repairs
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 92 19:20:19 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

In article <74612@hydra.gatech.EDU> bob@comlab.gatech.edu (Bob Baggerman) writes:
>At the risk of turning this into "misc.invest.home-handy-man" the system I

I read that group too, but chose to post my question in misc.invest.real-estate
because I hoped (and got) answers that were more realistic in a rental 
situation.  

Paul
From: davel@booboo.SanDiego.NCR.COM (David Lord)
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate
Subject: Re: Clinton/Real Estate/Interest Rates
Date: 11 Nov 92 18:54:46 GMT
Reply-To: davel@booboo.SanDiego.NCR.COM (David Lord)
Distribution: usa
Organization: NCR Corporation, Rancho Bernardo

In article <1992Nov10.224637.23295@etnibsd.uucp> vsh@etnibsd.uucp (Steve Harris) writes:
>
>My prediction: look for mortgage rates to level off between 9 and 10%

Oh boy! Prediction time. Somebody should be keeping track of these.
Here's mine:

Morgage rates to stay below 8.5 at least through May (possible higher
spike in late November 92). Reasons:

	1) There is already too big a gap between inflation and morgages.

	2) Sharp jump in layoff between now and January. Something like
	   90% of CEO's were supporting Bush and so delayed layoffs til
	   after the election to give him a running shot (conjecture).
	   Layoffs will keep consummer confidence, house buying and
	   the ecconomy on it's knees. Reduced demand for morgages and
	   week economy should hold rates down in spite of jitters
	   about Clinton's plans.

As the economy starts to pick up next year expect a large drop in
stock prices, 300-400 points off the DOW. Reasons:

	1) Just ask yourself why stocks have climbed so much in the
	   last couple years when the ecconomy has been so bad. Small
	   investors have flocked to stocks because of low interest
	   rates. More than at anytime since 1930.
	   
	   Now notice how the market drops at the slightest jump
	   in GNP (or whatever they call it now). When Joe Average
	   sees savings account rates go up while stocks are going
	   down he's going to run for cover in a big way. That of
	   course is going to send the big institutional investors
	   running for cover as well. 

--
Dave Lord 
Newsgroups: misc.invest.real-estate