HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Subject: Re: Samuelson (was Re: Yeah... ANOTHER variance vs expectancy posting.)
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1992 19:24:47 GMT

In article <1992Jul22.225703.19123@fid.morgan.com> sethb@fid.morgan.com (Seth Breidbart) writes:
>In article <1992Jul17.201334.26393@kronos.arc.nasa.gov>
>hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall) writes:
>
>>It is not the case that a Kelly bettor would *ever* do
>>worse than any other kind of bettor in the limit; at some number of bets
>>it *always* surpasses any other betting function and keeps on going.
>
>That isn't true, and I can prove it.

Not fair to keep shooting, I already surrendered.

>You will bet Kelly.  I will bet Kelly +$.01.  If we win, I'm 1 cent
>ahead of you; I'll bet Kelly thereafter, and stay ahead of you.  If we
>lose, I'm 1 cent behind you, so I'll bet Kelly(my bankroll + 1 cent) +
>2 cents this time.  Again, if we win, I'm 1 cent ahead of you.  If we
>lose, I'll continue the same strategy.

I'm well aware of this little trick.

>Now, if the strategy were to be "specify a fraction of your bankroll
>as a function of the odds on the bets available" then my strategy
>wouldn't be allowed.

As I pointed out in several articles, if not that particular one, this
is one of my/Kelly's assumptions.  We don't have anything proven about
strategies, such as martingales, that violate this assumption.

-- 
Michael Hall            \ I'm sorry sir, but you can no longer play coupons
NASA Ames Research Center\ in our casino.  Feel free to play slots, craps,
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \ blackjack, or any other game.  But no coupons.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: sethb@fid.morgan.com (Seth Breidbart)
Subject: Re: Samuelson (was Re: Yeah... ANOTHER variance vs expectancy posting.)
Organization: my opinions only
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 23:44:17 GMT

In article <1992Jul18.040919.7030@kronos.arc.nasa.gov>
hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall) writes:
>In article <1992Jul18.014137.15149@leland.Stanford.EDU> zwiebel@leland.Stanford.EDU (Jeffrey Zwiebel) writes:
>>In article <1992Jul17.201334.26393@kronos.arc.nasa.gov> hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall) writes:


>In his classic paper, Dr. Kelly writes "At every bet [a Kelly bettor]
>maximizes the expected value of the logarithm of his capital.  The reason
>has nothing to do with the value function which he attached to his money,
>but merely with the fact that it is the logarithm which is additive in
>repeated bets and to which the law of large numbers applies... [W]e have...
>shown that our gambler's capital will surpass, with probability one, that
>of any gambler apportioning his money differently from ours but still in
>a fixed way for each received symbol, independent of time or past events."

As I said, if you put a high enough value on bragging rights, Kelly
wins over all admissible strategies.

>>As Samuelson writes in his
>>monosyllabic paper on this topic (this was at least the 3rd paper he
>>wrote on this):
>>
>>"Know that life is not a game with net stake of one when you beat your twin,
>>and with net stake of naught when you do not.  A win of ten is not the same
>>as a win of two. ... How much you win by counts.  How much you lose by counts.

Samuelson says that the value of bragging rights isn't infinite.

>Does the difference between Kelly and Samuelson boil down to the
>difference between an infinite number of trials and a finite number of
>trials?

No, it boils down to the value of bragging rights.

>  I think so.  You seem to say that the difference is caused by
>the utility function, but Kelly says that the reason his approach is
>"optimal" under his assumptions has "nothing to do with the value
>function [i.e., utility]".  You require the number of trials to be
>finite *and* the utility function to be nonlogarithmic for Kelly betting
>to be nonoptimal, right?

No, the number of trials need not be finite, but then it depends on
how you take the limit.  With probability 1, Kelly has more money
eventually; however, for any time T, the bet-it-all strategy has a
higher expected value, and the difference grows rapidly as T
increases.

Seth		sethb@fid.morgan.com
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Subject: Re: Head Up Hold'em
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 21:44:26 GMT

In article <JACOBS.92Jul29130454@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:
>
>You are one of two final players in a Texas Hold'em tournament,
>playing no-limit.  You pick up your cards and see two black kings.
>You bet your whole stack, and your opponent calls.  You both turn
>your cards face up, and your opponent reveals two red aces.  As your
>life flashes before your very eyes, your opponent begins to speak.
>"Looks like I've got a substantial edge, but I'm going to be a sport
>and let you change your hand, if you want to, to any other hand that
>doesn't use either of my cards or the ace of spades.  If you decide
>to change your hand, we'll pull your two chosen cards out of the deck
>and shuffle the other 48 cards before dealing out the five board cards
>to determine the winner".
>
>Should you change your hand?

Yes.  Clearly any pocket pair lower than kings has a higher chance at
a straight (except 2's).  Middle pocket pairs have more possible straights,
and the kings have lost half of the aces they need for one of their two
possible straights.

>If so, what two cards do you choose to maximize the probability of
>beating the aces?

Er, harder question.  78 suited black?  You have three things going
for you: the two pair draw, the straight draw, and the flush draw
(well, and the trip draw, the house draw and the straight flush draw,
but those are probably negligible).  A hand like 89 suited would be
drawing dead to the straight for a board of TQJK, and 78 avoids this
fate.

Thank God you didn't ask what is the probability that this hand would
be the aces.

Am I right?

-- 
Michael Hall            \ The Jelly criterion says, to a first approximation,
NASA Ames Research Center\ to spread proportional to your peanut butter and
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \ your bread.  It is the optimal way to make a PBJ.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: goedde@ellipse.mps.ohio-state.edu (Chris Goedde)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Head Up Hold'em
Date: 31 Jul 1992 10:41:22 -0400
Organization: Department of Mathematics, The Ohio State University
NNTP-Posting-Host: ellipse.mps.ohio-state.edu

In article <1992Jul31.005520.7891@PA.dec.com> ed@pa.dec.com writes:
>> I agree with Michael that 7-8 of clubs or spades is best.
>
>I could buy this argument, but I suggested AC KC so as to reduce the
>chance of the opponent making trip aces, hence also reducing the chance of
>them making a boat.  I haven't attempted to analize if this is worth more
>than the better straight draw of keeping 7-8 suited black.

Another problem with AC KC is that it eliminates your chances
of making a winning two pair.

chris
goedde@shape.mps.ohio-state.edu
From: kathy@oasys.dt.navy.mil (Kathy Smith)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: AC: Best BJ rules
Date: 24 Jul 92 15:34:00 GMT
Article-I.D.: oasys.22745
Reply-To: kathy@oasys.dt.navy.mil (Kathy Smith)
Organization: Carderock Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center

In rec.gambling, garay@sapir.lap.upenn.edu (John Garay) writes:
>The best place for BJ I have found in AC are at the Claridge and Trump Plaza.
>At the Claridge, they have a special promotion where different combinations
>of cards pay extra:   7,7,7 any suit pays 3:2
>                      5 card 21 pays 2:1
>                      6,7,8 (different Suits?) pays 3:1
>                      Ace of Hearts with Queen of hearts pays 2:1
>                      DAS, Resplit up to total of 3 hands
>                      Resplit Aces
>                      DOA, Late Surrender
>                      6 deck shoe, sometimes 5$ minimum
                       ^
I think this game is 8 decks.  I was there in June and all the tables that
played it were 8 decks. 

>Plus, with their CompCard, They send CompChecks based upon your avg. bet.
>
>I personally prefer Claridge.  The people there are friendly (and NO, it's
>not because I give them my money.  Au contraire.)

I agree about the Clariage!  The rooms are very nice, I have stayed there
twice.    

Kathy M. Smith             David Taylor Model Basin, Carderock Division 
OASYS/Micro Support        Bethesda, Maryland U.S.A. 
Trandes Corporation        Code 3533
kathy@oasys.dt.navy.mil    301-227-4901
From: hebo@hp850.mbari.org (Bob Herlien)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Want Location of Unusual Games in LV
Date: 29 Jul 92 20:55:21 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

In article <1992Jul29.152754.18648@aio.jsc.nasa.gov> hack@arabia.uucp (Edmund Hack) writes:

>Fast Action Hold'Em (where?) **
>** Does anyone have a set of rules for this?

I just played this at Harvey's this weekend.  It was invented at Harvey's
at Tahoe (I think by the poker room manager, Bee Estes, but I'm not sure).
As far as I know, they have not licensed it to any other casino (they've
copyrighted or patented it, I'm not sure which).

Despite the name, this is a table game, and is played in the pits that 
include blackjack and Pai-Gow poker.  Rules, as far as I can remember
(someone correct me if I'm wrong):

Eight decks, ~80% penetration (if it matters).  Bet before the deal, as in
BJ.  Each player and the dealer gets 4 cards, face down.  Four of a kind
is a natural winner, paid immediately at some odds (3-1? I'm not sure).
Otherwise, you choose two cards to retain and two to discard.  Alternatively,
you can "double" by playing all four cards, arranged as two hands of two, 
and placing another bet equal to your first one on the second hand.
You may ask the dealer how the house would play a hand, as you can at
pai-gow poker, and he/she will help you.

When the players are done arranging their hands, the dealer picks up the
discards and arranges his/her hand.  Then s/he deals five cards in the
middle, and the hands are settled as in hold-em poker (almost).  "Almost",
because there are some special hands that occur due to multiple decks.
The only one I ran into (there may or may not be more, I don't know), is
that a flush with a pair (e.g., KK952 of diamonds) beats a full house.
I don't like this rule, so you can guess who had this hand.  Wins/losses
are at even money.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Bob Herlien
MBARI (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute)
hebo@mbari.org
"Limit congressmen to two terms.  One in office.  One in jail."
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: adam@research.nj.nec.com (Adam Porter)
Subject: Rules of the Games
Originator: adam@acapella
Reply-To: adam@research.nj.nec.com
Organization: NEC Research Institute
Date: Tue, 28 Jul 92 21:27:21 GMT


Is there somewhere I could read the rules of all the casino games
online?  An ftp site would be great, or if someone has a big list of
rules, please send email.  Thanks!

-- 
--								-Adam
=====================================================================
Adam Porter:Assistant SysAdmin, NEC Research Institute (609) 951-2568
4 Independence Way  Princeton,NJ 08540       adam@research.nj.nec.com
From: kimnach@lims02.lerc.nasa.gov (GREG KIMNACH)
Subject: Re: Lotto 6/49 Analysis - Ontario
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: NASA Lewis Research Center
Distribution: na
Date: 29 Jul 1992 09:36 EST  

In article <1992Jul28.193737.23555@isrc.sandia.gov>, smlacke@isrc.sandia.gov (Scott M Lackey) writes...
>From article <Bs3w79.7L8@ecf.toronto.edu>, by ricegm@ecf.toronto.edu (George Matthew Rice):
>> In article <1992Jul27.223555.14651@isrc.sandia.gov> smlacke@isrc.sandia.gov (Scott M Lackey) writes:
>>>  data after the fact.  Example: Take all of the lotteries and 
>>>  look for significant occurances of any number in any single
>>>  one of them.  Then determine the odds of that particular
>>>  number coming up in a single lottery.  The odds will probable
>>>  be thousands to one at least.  This would sound great to the
>> 
>> Actually the odds of a number a number being chosen in 6/49
>> is 1 in 49 :-?
>Lines deleted
>> Matthew
> 
>	Looking at my original posting, it wasn't clear what I was trying
>to say.  If you look around for a lottery in which any number ( not
>any specific number) has come up an inordinate number of times, you
>will surely find many instances. To then calculate the odds of that
>number coming up that many times (or more) in that lottery will give
>you a very small probability.  This is far from proving that the
>odds of the lottery being random are this small.  
> 
>Scott Lackey.
> 

A couple of years ago we went to the Ohio Lottery offices to get a print-
out of all the Super Lotto numbers that were drawn.  We found that the 
distribution of the numbers was uniform--as expected--and that any such 
gimmick to pick a set of "best numbers" is absolutely absurd.  Except for 
the people collecting money from such software and book sales!

Greg
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Another version:
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: jason@dcs.umd.edu (Jason Steinhorn)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: LV in August
Date: 22 Jul 92 15:34:20 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: University of Maryland, College Park


I'm leaving for LV in about 2 weeks and was interested in any current playing
conditions, meal bargains, or anything else worth mentioning to a first time
LV goer...

Where is the best cheap food?  Where are coupons found for table games?

I'll be staying the GN and the Frontier during the trip; any other 
rec.gamblers going to be out there anytime from the 4th to the 12th of
August?

Jason
jason@dcs.umd.edu
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: stantz@sgi.com (Mark Stantz)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Look, Ma , one hand!
Date: 28 Jul 92 16:52:22 GMT
Article-I.D.: odin.1992Jul28.165222.15822
Organization: Silicon Graphics, Inc.

In article <1992Jul28.032851.2774@ultra.com> howard@ultra.com writes:
>1.  What's your favorite position, err, I mean spot, when playing craps
>    and why?

	Where you can see down the dress of the hot babe when she's shooting.
Why?  Hey, the house has an advantage; I want all the entertainment I can get.

>2.  What are some great tactics to irritate the "help" when they're being
>    total jerks?  (admittedly, it won't last long :)

	Throw the dice so that they knock over the tall stacks of chips they
keep handy to pay people off with.  They really hate that.

	Quote the true odds and compare them to the actual payoffs when
the stickman goes through his patter trying to sell people on the prop bets.

>3.  BJ'ers have PRESTO!, what should us craps players adopt to identify
>    other rec.gamblers at the table?

	I dunno...

	-mfs
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: EGG9EJS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU (Eric J. Splaver)
Subject: Re: Signalling your partner to the count
Reply-To: eric@hup.ucla.edu
Date: 30 Jul 92 23:13:58 PDT

In article <1992Jul30.200931.786@miavx3.mid.muohio.edu>, on 31 Jul 92 01:09:31 GMT,
jfeldhouse@miavx3.mid.muohio.edu (Jim Feldhouse) writes:

>
>Kind of related to my last question, but different.
>Lets say you are playing blackjack with your girlfriend
>(could be boyfriend, SO, whatever).
>
>Your other hasn't yet mastered counting,  but they have
>Basic Strategy under their belts.  Meanwhile, your counting
>the cards as you sit next to each other.
>
>How do you think signalling your partner to raise there bet
>in favorable situations would work out?  N squeezes bet N
>times normal amount, maybe.  Anyone ever try something like this?
>
>Raising you bets together would probably be a dead give away
>to something fishy, but who knows, maybe if one of you is
>an extremly attractive female distracting the chauvinistic pit
>boss it wouldn't be noticed.
>
>Perhaps the counter could bet level and just have his partner
>(hopefully the less suspicous looking) change there bets.
>
>wut ya think?
>jim
>
Maybe I've been lucky, but I have regularly played with a partner whose
bets have increased along with mine, and we've experienced only mild
heat.  He'll keep an exact insurance count, or an over/under count and
I'll count the cards.  I follow his lead for insurance, or side betting
and he follows mine for betting size.  He'll have to play basic
strategy since he doesn't know the true count and can't adjust his
strategy accordingly.  He can adjust borderline situations (eg 16v10)
since he has a general sense of the count being slightly or severly
positive.  We also regularly enjoy spreads of 1-10 and higher.

I think the liklihood of discovery by the pit is somewhat exagerated,
and IMHO if your not getting 75% penetration and spreading at least
1 to 8, your lucky to stay even.

We have a small bankroll (usually less than $1000) and play almost
exclusively in southern Nevada, so perhaps it's tougher elsewhere.

We've had our share of losses but in playing together over the last
seven years we're comfortably ahead.

My suggestion is to work together and don't be so concerned about the
pit that you give up the tiny advantage you work so hard to attain.

Eric J. Splaver
eric@hup.ucla.edu
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: elliott@aero.org (Kenneth B. Elliott III)
Subject: Re: Strategy variations at the LV Club
Organization: The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, CA
	<JACOBS.92Jul22113850@cells.cs.utah.edu>
	<1992Jul22.185205.19515@cbnewsl.cb.att.com>
Distribution: usa
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 23:08:52 GMT


[jacko@cbnewsl.cb.att.com (Jacko)] writes:

>Tropworld and a few others are offering bonuses for 7-7-7, 6-7-8, and
>5 card 21.

When I was in Vegas last weekend (16th), Tropocana was offering 3:1
for 7-7-7 on Thursdays only.  Didn't come up once during my 4 hours of
play there for anyone at any table I was at.  I didn't split sevens
twice when I "should" have hoping to catch a third one, but no luck.
They also have 5x odds on craps on Thursdays, but since the lowest
minimum table is $5, that's a little too rich for a low roller like
me.

KBEIII

--

Ken Elliott III                  The Aerospace Corp.
elliott@aero.org                 P.O. Box 92957
(310) 336-8166                   Los Angeles, CA 90009

                                 
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: gopstein@helix.bms.com (Rich Gopstein)
Subject: Computers in casinos
Organization: Bristol-Myers Squibb PRI
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 22:25:18 GMT

In article <1992Jul29.062615.5731@redbrick.com> jfr@redbrick.com (Jon Rosen) writes:
>
>  The final problem is that under LV law, the use of a computer
>  in a gaming roon is illegal (5 yrs in jail).  
>
>  Jon Rosen

What is the legality of computer use in AC?



-- 
Rich Gopstein

gopstein@bms.com
rutgers!bms.com!gopstein
From: mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Head Up Hold'em
Date: 30 Jul 92 05:29:14 GMT
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest)

In article <JACOBS.92Jul29130454@cells.cs.utah.edu> jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes:

>You are one of two final players in a Texas Hold'em tournament,
>playing no-limit.  You pick up your cards and see two black kings.
>You bet your whole stack, and your opponent calls.  You both turn
>your cards face up, and your opponent reveals two red aces.  As your
>life flashes before your very eyes, your opponent begins to speak.
>"Looks like I've got a substantial edge, but I'm going to be a sport
>and let you change your hand, if you want to, to any other hand that
>doesn't use either of my cards or the ace of spades.  If you decide
>to change your hand, we'll pull your two chosen cards out of the deck
>and shuffle the other 48 cards before dealing out the five board cards
>to determine the winner".
>
>Should you change your hand?
>
>If so, what two cards do you choose to maximize the probability of
>beating the aces?

Seems that you've gotta give yourself the most chances at improvement
without helping out the aces.  Tossing the KS for the AC (assuming he'd
even let you throw just one card, which wasn't in the original deal) is 
a lousy move, as you've boxed in one end of your sstraight.

So toss both kings (forget you're giving the opponent a better chance
at a straight) and go for a middle-position feather.  5-6, 6-7, 7-8
or 8-9 of a matched black suit seem like the best way to go (which
is still pretty iffy).

-- 
Michael Zimmers                                    |  Home:  408 996 1984
SoftHelp                                           |  Work:  408 996 1965
Software Solutions for Open Systems                |  Data:  408 996 1974
From: erwin@bend.ucsd.edu (Sean Erwin)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Hampton Beach?
Date: 23 Jul 1992 15:10:04 GMT
Organization: Linguistics Department, UCSD
NNTP-Posting-Host: bend.ucsd.edu

Now that I am in the Boston area, I am hearing a lot of mention on the radio,
etc, about the Hampton Beach casino in New Hampshire.  What is this place?
What games are offered?  Any info would be appreciated...

---Sean

-- 
"I believe in the rights of people to own firearms....  Private guns makes
every person equal, no matter what/who he/she is."	---Lu Gang, post-
doctoral student in Physics at the University of Iowa, who shot and killed two
of his professors, a rival post-doc, two staff, and then himself in 1991.
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
From: jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs)
Subject: Re: New Video Poker Machine
In-reply-to: sethb@fid.morgan.com's message of Fri, 24 Jul 1992 22:49:05 GMT
Organization: University of Utah CS Dept
	<JACOBS.92Jul21114210@cells.cs.utah.edu>
	<1992Jul24.224905.9282@fid.morgan.com>
Date: 26 Jul 92 18:00:07

In article <1992Jul24.224905.9282@fid.morgan.com> sethb@fid.morgan.com (Seth Breidbart) writes:
[quick/dirty analysis of "double card" deleted]

>Quicker analysis: Would they have this machine if it gave the player
>[an anvantage]

By that reasoning, why would they offer 9/6 machines that give the player
a 99.5% return, when they could offer 8/5 machines with a 97.8% return
instead?
--
Steve Jacobs  ({bellcore,hplabs,uunet}!utah-cs!jacobs, jacobs@cs.utah.edu)
"Never try to teach a pig to sing.  It wastes your time and annoys the pig."
From: hallyb@globbo.enet.dec.com (John Hallyburton)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Does this group have an FAQ list?
Summary: FAQ and push-the-quarters machine deserve each other?
Keywords: nivnel -- bprybg
Date: 21 Jul 92 16:41:42 GMT
Organization: Twin Peaks Municipal Software Works


jacobs@cs.utah.edu (Steven R Jacobs) writes...
> 
>[...] (Note for old-timers: no, I still haven't
>updated the FAQ, but I don't really have much new input...)

Perhaps someone with more experience should write up a FAQ entry on those
quarter-pushing machines that have been discussed recently.

These machines must come in different versions.  I recall seeing one that
had a chute (note the spelling, guys) front and center.  Any money going off
the ledge down that chute stayed in the machine, and was so labeled.  You had
to push coins off the left or right side (not edge) to collect.

These things are a riot to watch, but a rip-off to play.  Until the recent
posting I had not heard of anyone who actually made money off them.

  John

p.s., the guys who recommended going to Virginia City.  I agree, you can have a
fun time going there, but just have your expectations set:  a lot of tourist-
traps, plus some worthwhile places.  Not the other way around.
--
						"The Smart Money was on Goliath"
						John Hallyburton 43 55'N 71 45'W
Newsgroups: rec.gambling