From: spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: What's really going to happen with baseball...
Date: 11 Sep 92 00:20:51 GMT
Organization: Boo!

In <wall-100992165240@elvis.swarthmore.edu> wall@cc.swarthmore.edu (Matthew Wall) writes:

>My predictions for what's going to happen in the next few years:

>1. The owners will threaten a lockout next spring but not follow through
>because of the economic necessities of getting the expansion franchises
>going.

I don't think its going to get to the point of threatening, because I
don't think the owners are going to{choose to re-open the basic agreement
this reason.  One of the reasons will be the new franchises, but the
current chaos and the fact that 1993 is the last year of the CBS
contract will be the main reasons.  Also, many owners are hoping that
the market will push salaries down this winter.

>2. a new, gutless, powerless commissioner on the CEO model will be hired in
>the best interests of the owners.

While I think this is true, I also think there's an exagerration here.  Is
David Stern "gutless"?  Was Pete Rozelle "gutless"?  Also, while the
commissioner's office has always been said to represent the players and
fans as well as the owners, no one has ever had any say in electing the
Commissioner except the owners.  I would argue that most commissioners
represented the owners and no one but the owners - Bowie Kuhn and Peter
Ueberroth, for example.  For better or worse, Fay Vincent seemed to believe
that he had to represent more than just the owners.  But he was the exception,
not the rule.  And what the owners are doing is ensuring that there are no
more exceptions.

>3. the owners will stage a lockout in the spring of '94 when the Basic
>Agreement expires.

>4. There will be no baseball for many months in '94.

I think this is a long way off, and will depend on what happens with regard
to the salary structure between now and then.

>5. The owners will capitulate because
[explanation deleted]

Basically agree - the owners have far more to lose in the long run.

The situation is this - the players will never agree to a cap or
anything of that nature unless the owners agree to share revenue
more among themselves first.  Don Fehr and the Players Association
know full well that the players will lose out in any such agreement
if the playing field among the owners isn't more level.

>6. Realignment will be quashed and we'll see Chicago and St.Pete play in
>the West for 20 years.

I suspect that a more major realignment will occurr before the year 2000.

>7. The owners will kill the passive audience for baseball and settle for a
>TV contract 1/3 the size of the current one in '94-'96.

I think we're exagerrating just a bit here.  I could see the contract being
1/3 lower, but not a third of.  The contracts are not heading back to '70s
levels.

>8. MLB attendance will drop in '95 for the first time since the early 70s.

Are you sure it hasn't dropped this year?


Greg 
-- 
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