From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 31 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 3 Jan 1993 08:36:16 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                31 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 366, 12/31/92
10.7 FLUX=129.7  90-AVG=139        SSN=081      BKI=2134 3211  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B4.6     FLU1=5.2E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1134 3211  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=010,009,028,041,027,015,008,005   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=01:018
 XRAY-MAX= M2.6   @ 0222UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.9   @ 0905UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1540UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2340UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1925UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1545UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1908UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 2133UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-017NT@ 0902UT  G7-AVG=+084,+029,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1901UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 0031UT  G6-AVG=+102,-002,+036
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,115;SESC:115,115,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,015
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=011,008   27DAY-KP=2333 3222 3332 1211
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.6/SN@0222UTC;**SWEEP:II=1@0222UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7376 (N16W91)
       produced the largest flare of the past day, an M2/SN at 31/
       0222Z. This region is now at the west limb. Region 7379 (S12W51)
       also produced an interesting flare. It was an LDE peaking at
       C6 at 31/1941Z and was associated with a disappearing filament
       near S05W49. New Region 7386 (S04E84) was numbered. It is the
       return of old Region 7362, which produced a few C-class flares
       last rotation.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. C-class flares are possible in Regions 7379 and 7386. The
       likelihood of M-class flares should diminish with the exit of
       Region 7376.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled for the most part.
       Active to storm conditions were observed at many stations from
       31/0900-1500Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 01 jan-03 jan

                             Class M    10/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 jan-03 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next 72
       hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7376  N16W91  355  0100 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7378  N13W77  341  0030 HAS  01  001 ALPHA
7379  S12W52  316  0070 DAO  04  005 BETA
7381  N05W53  317  0110 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7383  S04W59  323  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7384  N04W82  346  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7386  S04E84  180  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7382  S18W29  293                    PLAGE
II. REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 JANUARY TO 03 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7360 S19   164
7364 N08   139
7363 S08   136


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
31/B0220             A0235       N17W80   RSP    M2.6   29  1
31/B1915             A1932       S05W49   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS

**  End of Daily Report  **
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