From: aghao@sersun2.essex.ac.uk
Newsgroups: rec.autos.sport
Subject: That incident in Australia :-)
Date: 11 Nov 92 12:17:29 GMT
Reply-To: aghao@sersun2.essex.ac.uk ()
Organization: University of Essex, Colchester, UK

Greetings.

I have been rather silent (and busy!) lately, and have read with great interest
all the postings about the crash on Sunday.  I had seen the incident on TV
on Sunday afternoon, but only in isolation.  This morning, I watched the whole
thing from the start, and now have a better perspective.  This is what I think
(for what its worth!).

The incident occurred at the end of lap 19.  Let us go back a few laps to the
end of lap 17.  Mansell was slowly easing away from Ayrton, and had opened a 
2 second gap.  It is useful to observe (if you have a tape) the behaviour of 
both Nigel and Ayrton's cars as they approach the final hairpin.  At the end of 
the main straight, there is a series of 3 left turns, followed by a right kink. 
On the approach to, and through, this kink, the drivers have their foot down.  
Sometime after this kink, they have to brake for the final corner, and the 
braking point is thus after the apex of the kink.

On laps 17 and 18, Mansell, who was ahead, would brake after the apex of the 
corner, as would Senna.  However, at the start of lap 19, Mansell ran into 
trouble in the shape of Larini's Ferrari, and another couple of cars.  Clearly,
for the next half a lap, it was going to be well nigh on impossible to get past
the back-markers, and that gave Senna the opportunity to erase that 2 second 
gap.  Thus, at the end of the Brabham straight, Senna was right on the Williams'
tail again.

Now things started to happen quickly.  Ayrton was keen to get ahead of the
Williams if he could (obviously), and was climbing all over Mansell through the
series of three left turns after the main straight.  You may notice that 
Mansell entered at least one of these turns particularly slowly (the 90deg 
left), in order to put of Senna.  To some extent this worked, because as they
approached the right kink, Mansell had a bit of clear air between them.  
Remember, too, that they had only overtaken the Ferrari, and had another couple 
of cars yet to be dispatched.

To my eye (ie IMHO! :-), Mansell didn't start decelerating until after the 
apex of the right kink, simply because the gap between them started closing
after the apex.  I also think that Ayrton was perhaps planning to take a run at
the Williams into the final turn, and stayed off his brakes later, hoping to
dart up the inside and force Nigel wide for the lead.  However, Mansell stayed
in the centre of the track, and (it seemed to me) braked slightly earlier than 
before for the turn.  Some people have said that he braked 20m earlier than 
usual, but it seems to me that that is hardly possible, because he would have 
probably speared off the track if he braked 20m later on that lap compared to 
previous ones.  In any case, had Mansell not been there, the speed with which 
Senna was approaching the final hairpin makes me very much doubt HE would have 
safely negotiated it either! Whatever the reason, Senna started slowing later 
than Nigel did, and found it impossible to stop in time.  

This view is perhaps supported by the fact that the McLaren's left front wheel 
was removed on impact.  If Senna was moving over to the right, and then had to
stand on the brakes suddenly, his car would slide in the way it did.  
Conversely, if he had locked up before turning the wheel, he would have carried
straight on, flat spotted his tyres, and buried his nosecone in the Williams
gearbox.

Personally, I viewed it as nothing more than a racing incident, but one that 
was entirely Ayrton's fault, albeit non-deliberately.  To support my argument, 
let's go back to Japan 91.  Berger stormed off into the distance, while Senna 
kept Mansell bottled up by driving extremely slowly through the turns, and 
flying down the straights.  A few races later, Monaco 92.  Senna kept Mansell 
behind for three laps in a thrilling dice, by employing the same tactics.  
Riccardo Patrese meted out the same treatment to Schumacher in that race. In 
these two incidents, no contact was made, though the Williams was probably the 
faster package on the day.  This was an analogous situation, and as I see it, 
the facts of the matter are that Senna was trying extremely hard, and made a 
mistake.  I don't know what's so hard about admitting that.  To err is human, 
and I for was was happy that neither of them were seriously injured.  Let's cut 
this blinkered "my man is better than your man and can do no wrong" shit, and 
stick to the facts.

Anyway, a good season has now come to an end, and we can look forward to 1993
and hope for even more competitive racing (not hard!) and wider interest, with
new, better prepared teams, new drivers, Andretti in a McLaren, and maybe 
sometime soon, Unser Jr in perhaps a Benetton or a Williams.  Plus, of course,
Mansell in IndyCars.  My occassional interest in that series will be greatly
increased now, and I'm sure I speak for many others.  Similarly, US interest
in F1 will be on the up primarily due to Andretti, and that can only be for the 
good of our sport.  Have a good closed season, everyone, and here's to a better
1993!

Cheers,

	Obi.

===============================================================================
    .-----,   .           !    Obi Aghanya
   /     /   /        @   !    Fault Tolerant Systems Research Group
  /     /   /----,   /    !    Dept. of Comp. Sci, University of Essex
 /     /   /    /   /     !    Colchester  CO4 3SQ,  UK
(_____'   (____'   (__    !    EMAIL : aghao@essex.ac.uk
       (Waterloo in '92 - for Ayrton! :-) [Told you so! :-)]