From: peterd@bunyip.com (Peter Deutsch)
Newsgroups: can.politics
Subject: Re: Independence is already in process
Date: 28 Jul 92 06:37:58 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: McGill University

In article <ph3.711667956@unixg.ubc.ca> ph3@unixg.ubc.ca (Michael Hamilton  
(phys 306)) writes:
> In <BrFpvz.5n4@ireq.hydro.qc.ca> beaurega@ireq.hydro.qc.ca (Denis Beauregard)  
writes:
> 
> >What would be your opinion (all netters) if learning that the independence
> >(or considering Quebec as a different country than Canada) is already
> >in process?
> 
> >I heard recently that most large Canada-wide companies are now preparing
> >a separate Quebec branch.  They take care of that to minimize effect
> >of independence.  So, if we all do that, that is, if Canada accepts as
> >a not only theoretical concept the independence or sovereignty (or  
sovereignty-
> >association, or whatever you call it), but something becoming, then the
> >process will be easier, less costly on both sides, and will generate
> >much less harm.  

This is not the point I wanted to respond to, but I can't help a passing 
comment on this particular piece of wishful thinking. In this case I believe
M. Beauregard is "dreaming in technicolor", as we say here in Quebec.

The acrimony and ill-feeling that will accompany separation when it happens
is going to certainly cause people to do stupid things on both sides. Couple
this with the economic disruptions due to large numbers of well-educated
Quebecers (of both official languages) packing up and you've a pretty bleak
economic forcast for a number of years. You read it here, first, folks.

Accept that you are choosing separation for emotional, not economic grounds.
Once you have done so, admit that there will be a price to honour
your emotional decision. At that point, if you still want separation,
go for it. Just let's stop pretending that TROC will behave in a 
"rational, Anglo-Saxon" way in response. They're going to squeal like
stuck pigs, then find any number of little and not so little
ways to exact a measure of revenge. It's human nature we're dealing with
here. 

If you want to know what it will be like, wander down to your
local courthouse and watch the divorcing couples arguing over china figurines
that are worth maybe $10 while $100 an hour lawyers on both sides broker
the deal. That's the kind of rationality that will be acted out for the
next two years, as both sides argue about a proper distribution formula
while the bond ratings for both sides continue to plumment.


> >I then propose as next debates : instead of why Quebec should not secede,
> >how will CSQ and Quebec be the best prepared to "survive" Quebec secession.
> >How the language dynamics will change if for example anglos in Quebec
> >accept the idea of learning French (for those who are still present and
> >are not yet Anglo/Franco bilingual).  And since most francos hors quebec
> >are already bilingual, to what extend will they suffer (i.e. will CSQ
> >try to avenge from Quebec secession because Quebec break that "too great
> >country to be destroy", or will they accept for both better position a
> >less harmful position of tolerance (i.e. even without Quebec, CSQ second
> >language is French).
> 
> It seems that more and more people are talking about an easy separation, and
> talking about, as here, a method to do it. Well, one thing that built Canada
> was the phrase, Sea to (shining) Sea. Putting a hole in the middle will, I
> think, make people re-examine Canada and their province's involvement in it.
> It's not economic, it's cultural. As it stands, I have more in common with
> someone from Seattle or Portland than somone from Trana or San' Jahn's. More
> people from BC cross the Canada-US border per year than the BC-Alberta, but
> the BC-Alta line is longer. There is no easy way to do this; separation is
> a slippery slope. Canada is not capable of surviving without Quebec. If we
> could, we would have shaken hands and parted long ago.

Actually, having said my piece on the short term effects of separation on
Quebec, I would submit that both Quebec and Canada can and will survive the
divorce. Canada, especially Anglo Canada is fundamentally different from the
U.S.  You can seen this in their acceptance of authority and the need for 
government, in their not just acceptance, but desire for social programs such 
as welfare and universal medical care, in their sense of community and 
acceptance of such "liberal" issues as gun control, abortion choice, etc.
I don't think you have to define an anglo-Canadian in terms of his "not
American" status to realise that they really are _not_ Americans
and just don't want to be. I don't know many that would willingly become one,
either.

Whenever I hear francophones argue that anglos need them to help them define
their existance as being "not American" I shudder that the two solitudes
could have such a poor perception of each other. Of course, as someone 
married to a francophone and working in anglo Quebec, while being
exposed to large amounts of both anglo-Canadian and U.S. media, it's a
wonder to me that we haven't dug canals to crisscross the entire continent
so the various groups don't have to share a single continent, given
how little anglo-Canada seems to know or understand about francophone
Canada. Talk about talking and not listening!

So TROC (or is the policitally correct abbreviation now ROC? CSQ? :-) will
continue as a separate country, albeit on demised in size, economic 
influence and clout on the world stage. Still, I would expect that Canada
will still have a significant role to play in such venues as the U.N.,
with Canadian troops still playing an active role in peacekeeping missions.
After all, this is a role invented by a Canadian Prime Minister (Lester Person)
and given that it suits the anglo mentality of "good government" I expect
it will continue.

Quebec will, I believe, suffer a fairly permanent decline in its
power and influence, since it will no longer be able to leverage its influence 
in Ottawa to its advantage, and the I suspect it will succumb to "branch 
plant-itis" in which large scale manufacturing will move out and only 
specialized industries needed in the much smaller French market will survive.
In many respects that's being going on for years, and I expect separation
will accelerate this trend. Still, we wont go back to making fire by
rubbing sticks together. There are enough people here, and enough
natural resources, that the country will get by. 

Of course, as a small country with a different language sandwiched between 
relatively hostile or at best indifferent neighbors, it will find itself still 
spending a _lot_ of time pointing out why it just afford to be any nicer to its
minorities while pleading with the U.S. to lift whatever particular onerous
trade barrier it has chosen to enforce this month. Softwood lumber? Hah, you
ain't seen nothing yet.

We _will_ see cornflakes boxes in French only (a delicious irony, if you'll 
pardon the pun) since it actually doesn't really cost all that much to make up, 
print and then stack the packaging machines with the needed cardboard blanks
at the factory in upstate New York or Ohio, or whereever it will come in from.

What you'll see is less money in people's pockets to buy such  goods with, 
since in at least some areas Quebec will find itself in a trade war with TROC 
(for example, I will go _right_ out on a limb here and predict that Quebec will 
loose its dominant position in the Canadian dairy industry! :-)

In the long run the pressure on French speakers to adapt to the U.S. to allow
them to play the economic game with a disgruntled former partner in Canada
and the basically benign 800 pound gorilla to the South will see far more
pressure on francophones to "speak White" than anything the francophone 
community sees now. Still, this wont help the much reduced anglophone 
population, devastated by a surge of emigration (ie outflow of people) among 
their youth.

The aging remainder will have less and less influence as their minimal
value as a barginning chip in the endless Quebec-ROC rows evaporates
completely. Coupled with a final Canadian decision to revoke the
passports of anyone who chose to remain in Quebec after separation (a
decision that will probably be fought to the Supreme Court, but eventually 
upheld, given the real possibility that the entire Constitution will be 
rewritten during the final dash to a new government, and a clause enabling the 
government to do it will be inserted by a thoughtful Newfoundland negotiator).

Yup, and you want to know the worst part of the whole sad, sorry spectacle?
People like me, the relatively not so old, well educated, bilingual, productive
members of society will try it out, and if it really does start to go down
the tubes we'll probably just pack up and leave in large numbers since
we'll be able to do it. We'll leave the two halves of a broken country and 
emigrate to Australia, or Silicon Valley, or maybe France (booming in a 
revitalized and united Europe). We'll decide that it wasn't quite what we had 
in mind when we voted "Yes" this time, just to get it over with, and we'll take 
our loss on the house (given that you'll be able to pick up a nice three 
bedroom place in the West island for about $50,000 at least a certain number
of government functionaries will still be able to afford the mortgage
payments). Of course, we'll have to have a good accountant to get our money out 
of the new country once the monetary controls are put into place to control the 
flight of capital, but hey it's been done before, and it'll be done again.

Do I sound gloomy? I don't mean to overdo it, but I think this entire country
is sleepwalking down the train tracks, with the 1:05 express barrelling
down the tracks right at us. I just wish for ten minutes the separatists would 
be honest with themselves. If they could do that, I'd probably willing call for
independence myself just to let them try it out for a while. After
all, I still have my U.S. and Australian passports and _my_
family's future is not going to be entirely tied up in getting it
right the first time. I do feel sorry for those poor souls who don't have
such a safety net, since if I'm ever close to right in my gloomy vision
this will be one pisspoor country in the next couple of years.

Unfortunately,I'm on of the legion of people who JUST DON'T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT 
IT ANY MORE!!!!!! I say lets get it over with, and start rebuilding. This 
senseless squabbling is sapping the lifeblood from the entire nation. It's time 
to get it over with....


Thanks, I feel better now. You poor misguided souls can go back to calling each 
other names and ignoring each other's postings again. I'm going home to bed...


			- peterd