From: mjp@austin.ibm.com (Michael Phelps)
Subject: violent crime in America
Originator: mjp@bwa.kgn.ibm.com
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 92 16:01:30 GMT
Reply-To: mjp@vnet.ibm.com (Michael J. Phelps)
Organization: IBM Kingston NY


 I saw this on the UPI news wire stuff.. comments are prefaced by '(mjp)'.  It
is pretty interesting, as much for the statistical overview as for a couple of
statements.


	WASHINGTON (UPI) -- The United States remains one of the most violent
countries in the industrialized world and greater efforts are needed to
stem the carnage, a National Academy of Sciences report concluded
Thursday.
	In the report ``Understanding and Preventing Violence,'' a 19-member
expert panel assembled by the academy's National Research Council
recommended a wide range of new research to help understand the roots of
violence.
	``The panel found that a substantial knowledge base exists regarding
some aspects of violent events and behaviors and that certain areas of
knowledge are expanding rapidly,'' the report said.
	``However, we were frustrated to realize that it was still not
possible to link these fields of knowledge together in a manner that
would provide a strong theoretical base on which to build prevention and
intervention programs.''
	Among the report's findings:
	--In 1990, more than 23,000 Americans were homicide victims.
	--Nearly one-third of the 19 million crimes reported in 1990 involved
violence, with the most common crime being an assault.
	--U.S. homicide rates ``far exceed'' those in any other industrialized
nation and the rates of other violent crimes in the United States are
among the world's highest.
	--The U.S. homicide rate peaked in the 1930s, fell for the next 30
years and began to increase again in 1973. The rate peaked again between
1979 and 1981 before declining until 1984 and 1985. The current rate is
now at about its 1980 level.

(mjp) If this is true, then it certainly seems like rather strong evidence that
(mjp) gun control -- specifically the gun control enacted in 1968 -- has had
(mjp) little to no effect on the homocide rate.  It would appear that the 
(mjp) homicide rate was falling before '68, continued to fall after '68, then
(mjp) rose/fell/rose again.  

	--While the homicide rate is actually lower today than during earlier
          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
periods of history, the increased population means the total number of
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

(mjp) Could anyone elaborate on this with some numbers and years?  This also
(mjp) seems to contradict what much of the goverment wants us to believe.

deaths ``are high by historical standards.''
	--Minorities are more likely that whites to be victims of violent
crimes, with blacks being 41 percent and Hispanics 32 percent more
likely than whites to be victimized.
	--Young men are the most common perpetrators of violent crimes,
representing 89 percent of all those arrested.
	--Contrary to public perceptions, ``serial murderers'' are responsible
for only about 1 percent or 2 percnt of homicides.
	--While average prison time served per violent crime roughly tripled
between 1975 and 1989, reported levels of serious violent crime did not
decrease.

(mjp) My understanding is that the federal criminal justice system has been 
(mjp) better at keeping violent offenders in jail, the states cjs aren't keeping
(mjp) up their end.

	--About 6 percent of violence victims are attacked by members of their
own family.

(mjp) We can use this number to help reinforce the incorrect use of the 
(mjp) "acquaintance crime" statistic that HCI and others love to throw around.
(mjp) -- 94% of the time, perpetrators of violence were not family members.

	Among the panel's recommendations were:
	--Funding for research should be increased above the $20.2 million
spent for violence research and intervention in 1989.
	--More research should be conducted into the underlying causes of
violence, including whether there are any biological factors that
predispose an individual to violence.
	--Specifically, researchers should study children over time to try to
determine why some children exhibit patterns of aggressive behavior at
early ages and why only a small proportion go on to commit violent
crimes.
	--Studies should be conducted to determine which places, routine
activities and situations could be modified to prevent violence.
	--Police activity should be studied to determine what best reduces
violence, including the role of firearms and drugs in violent events.

(mjp) perhaps they should also examine the role of firearms in nonviolent events?

(mjp) all in all, this seems like a good piece of ammunition (pardon the pun) for
(mjp) letters.  My reading of this says that:

(mjp)  * The goverment's own statistics show that the homicide rate is not tied
(mjp)    to gun control.  

(mjp)  * The homicide rate is lower than it has been during earlier periods of
(mjp)    history.

(mjp)  * The much beloved HCI "family violence" issue is a hoax.

What do youall think?
-- 
Michael Phelps, (external) mjp@vnet.ibm.com ..
                (internal) mjp@bwa.kgn.ibm.com .. mjp at kgnvmy         
 (and last but not least a disclaimer)  These opinions are mine..