From: spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: RC/27 for CFs
Date: 23 Jul 92 23:13:35 GMT
Organization: Heartburn City

In <9207231946.AA23187@sumac09.cray.com> jjd@TEAK.CRAY.COM (Jeff Drummond) writes:

>References: <1992Jul17.190453.27517@leland.Stanford.EDU> <1992Jul21.153228.1782@island.COM> <1992Jul21.223405.29801@leland.Stanford.EDU>


>In article <1992Jul21.223405.29801@leland.Stanford.EDU> claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>>Here are their numbers since '86, year by year.  ('86 was Bonilla's rookie
>>season).
>>		Bonilla			Puckett			Advantage
>>'86		.256/.352/.333		.288/.330/.385		Puckett
>>'87		.300/.351/.481		.328/.366/.537		Puckett
>>'88		.277/.366/.476		.356/.375/.545		Puckett
>>'89		.281/.358/.490		.339/.379/.465		Even?
>>'90		.280/.322/.518		.298/.365/.446		Bonilla (small)
>>'91		.301/.391/.492		.319/.352/.460		Bonilla (big)
>>
>>On a career basis entering this season (which Puckett is dominating), however,
>>Puckett and Bonilla are on about the same level (equal OBP, Bonilla with 6
>>points higher SLG), so your point is taken.  However, Puckett, as you can see,
>>has really been in slight declines since his excellent '88 season, but was
>>still considered a top offensive player even last year, when, by RC/27, he
>>was inferior to at least these players in the AL:  (Also, Puckett is 2 years
>>older)

>The 'Advantage' column didn't seem right to me, so I computed OBA*SLG and
>compared Puckett and Bonilla on that basis.  I also included this years
>numbers to date.

>		Bonilla			Puckett		OBA*SLG Advantage

>'86	.256/.352/.333/.117	.288/.330/.385/.127	Puckett (small)
>'87	.300/.351/.481/.169	.328/.366/.537/.197	Puckett (big)
>'88	.277/.366/.476/.174	.356/.375/.545/.204	Puckett (big)
>'89	.281/.358/.490/.175	.339/.379/.465/.176	Even
>'90	.280/.322/.518/.167	.298/.365/.446/.163	Even
>'91	.301/.391/.492/.192	.319/.352/.460/.162	Bonilla (big)
>'92	.264/.371/.434/.161	.318/.333/.530/.176	Puckett (small)

>Nelson's picture seemed to indicate Puckett in a steady decline and
>Bonilla steadily improving.  The inclusion of this years data seems
>to indicate not only a temporary stabilization for Puckett, but that
>Bonilla's 1992 numbers (to date) are more in line with his '87-'90
>numbers, and that his excellent 1991 season may have been a career year
>for him.

None of the numbers that anyone has shown here have been park-adjusted,
so I looked up RC/27 out park-adjusted totals for Bonilla and Puckett the
last few years.


             Puckett     Bonilla
1988          6.82        6.29 
1989          5.85        6.03
1990          5.35        6.17
1991          4.78        7.49

From these, I make two observations:

Bonilla's been a pretty good, but not great offensive player over the years.
Last year was probably a career year, and it would be surprising not to see
him return to the level of offensive productivity he displayed from '88-'90 
this year.  Which is essentially what he's done during the first half.

Puckett's been on a steady decline.  My guess is this season is more his
"last hurrah" - a great season which briefly interrupts his decline - than
a upwards swing in his career.

Greg 

[Stats from 1989 Baseball Abstracts, 1990-1992 Baseball Sabermetrics. I
think the stats were all done by STATS' computers] 
-- 
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