From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 April
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 6 Apr 1992 07:56:15 GMT

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                  DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                05 APRIL, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 APRIL
---------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 096, 04/05/92
10.7 FLUX=154.4  90-AVG=200        SSN=087      BKI=2122 3324  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=C1.0     FLU1=7.5E+04  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3223 3234  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=015,009,012,015,026,020,013,044   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.9   @ 1700UT    XRAY-MIN= B7.9   @ 2246UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0320UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2340UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -1.0DB @ 2105UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55282NT @ 0954UT   BOUTF-MIN=55242NT @ 1831UT  BOUTF-AVG=55270NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 2000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-039NT@ 1026UT  G7-AVG=+078,+048,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 2143UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-023NT@ 1951UT  G6-AVG=+091,+010,+030
 FLUXFCST=STD:155,160,160;SESC:155,155,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,012,010/012,012,010
    KFCST=2333 3322 2333 3322  27DAY-AP=014,016   27DAY-KP=3223 3433 3323 3334
 WARNINGS=*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  Region 7123 (S06E29) was responsible for
several long-duration low-level C-class flares today.  A minor amount of
penumbral decay was observed in the trailer spot complex.  The rest of the
region appears to be fairly stable.

     New Region 7125 (S15E76) has produced strong surging as it crossed the
east limb today.  Soft x-ray imagery from the Yohkoh satellite apparently
shows that this region has a bright core with extensive faint loop structures
nearby.  White-light analysis shows this region to have several moderately
sized leader spots, although it is still much too near to the limb to discern
any great detail.  Magnetic analysis will be possible over the next couple of
days as the region rotates away from the limb and more fully into view.
Low-level C-class x-ray fluctuations and surging parallel to the limb have
also been observed from this region since it first appeared.  This area was
previously composed of three small and insignificant spot groups on the last
solar rotation.  This region is C-class capable and may also be capable of an
isolated M-class event.  More will be known when the region rotates more
fully into view over the next 24 to 48 hours.

     New Region 7126 (S17W75) was also numbered today.

     Solar activity is expected to continue low.  Regions 7123, 7124 (N13W59)
and 7125 are capable of producing C-class flare activity.  There is also a
slight chance Regions 7123 and/or 7125 may also spawn an isolated minor
M-class flare over the next several days.  The primary region of interest
continues to be Region 7123.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A few episodes of active
to minor storm conditions were observed over the high latitudes between
approximately 12:00 UT and 18:00 UT, although nothing significant was
reported with this activity.  The cause of this activity may have been
related to a well placed solar coronal hole.  Just prior to the release of
this report, episodes of minor to major geomagnetic storming have
materialized.  This activity may only be temporary in nature.  If so, a
return to generally unsettled to mildly active conditions may be observed
through the majority of the UT day of 06 April.  Periods of minor geomagnetic
storming may continue to be observed over the middle and particularly the
high latitude regions.

     Auroral activity has been fairly dormant over the last 24 hours.  The
Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH has been extended and is now valid
until 18Z on 07 April.  Unless conditions warrant, the watch will expire at
that time.  Just prior to release of this report, auroral activity increased
substantially and migrated notably equatorward over the last several hours.
This burst of activity may only be temporary, but is sufficient to warrant
the extended Watch for the middle latitude regions during this unstable
period.  If activity continues at currently observed levels, southern
Australian and New Zealand regions together with northern European regions
and portions of Great Britain may be able to observe some weak activity. No
significant storming is anticipated.  Most of this activity appears to be
substorm related and should be sporadic and temporary in nature.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  Conditions
became degraded just prior to the release of this report over the middle and
high latitude regions.  Notable increases in auroral flutter, noise, and
absorption have been observed over the last several hours over many middle
and high latitude signal paths.  Conditions are expected remain somewhat
unstable, ranging from near-normal to periodically below normal over the next
24 hours.  Low and equatorial signal paths should remain near normal with
good to very good propagation conditions.  Middle latitudes are expected to
observe good propagation conditions during the local daylight hours, and good
to sporadically fair conditions during the local night sectors.  High
latitudes should observe mostly fair to poor conditions.


**  End of Daily Update  **
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