From: nicolson@odie.ee.wits.ac.za (James Nicolson)
Subject: Re: A question for ANC supporters (re: Bisho)
Organization: Wits Electrical Engineering (Novell Users).
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 08:25:26 GMT

In article <1992Sep14.115604.17596@hippo.ru.ac.za> ccfj@hippo.ru.ac.za (F. Jacot Guillarmod) writes:

>In <nicolson.35@odie.ee.wits.ac.za> nicolson@odie.ee.wits.ac.za (James Nicolson) writes:

>>Without the help of hindsight, it would have required a great deal of 
>>cynacism on the part of the local activists to believe that what they were 
>>doing did not have a strong chance of succeeding. Hindsight, however, shows 
>>that they were desperately wrong.

>Hindsight has nothing to do with it.  Well before the event, just about
>everyone in sight was telling them they were playing with fire - if you
>have an unstable, threatened dictator on the receiving end of mass
>action, the consequences are easy enough to predict.  Not to excuse, but
>to predict.

Hindsight has a lot to do with it. The people who were raving about _playing 
with fire_ are the same people who do this every time the ANC launches a 
campaign (the commercial press and the state). The point is (which you 
failed to answer from my previous posting) that the ANC had every 
reason to believe (based on passed experience) that Gqozo's troops were no 
really loyal to him -- not to the point of firing on people with whom they 
sympathised. I agree fully that because of the deaths the whole thing must 
now be seriously questioned (with hindsight). The truth is, however, that 
the ANC knew better than anyone (especially the commercial press) what the 
situation was like, and they decided to go ahead after making it perfectly 
clear that they planned to march to Bisho. This event could have taken place 
without conflict and it would have disappeared along with all the other 
apocalyptic predictions that bedevil anything the ANC does. It is much to 
easy to simply say 'we all knew it was going to happen'.

The ANC was also responding to very strong feelings from its local 
supporters. People have commented that without the ANC's nod of approval, 
the march would have gone ahead but that the ANC imposed discipline on the 
march. I don't agree fully with this - without the ANC's approval, the 
massacre may not have occured for the simple reason that the massacre was a 
calculated attempt to discredit the ANC by the SA military. This is the only 
possible way of looking at the events -- to say that it was the response of 
a dictator pushed against the wall ignores what actually happened. The 
massacre was planned and promoted by elements in the SA military. To say 
that the ANC should have taken this into account is what I meant above by '
cynacisim'. Without this element, it is not far fetched to believ, before 
the march, that it had every hope of being peaceful.

>>Also, any idea that the ANC wanted a massacre is absurd. The organisers 
>>genuinely believed that they would be able to reach bisho.

>This is probably the crux of the issue.  Reach Bisho and do what?  If
>you can go half way to answering this, you may have some sort of
>explanation for the course of events.

The plan was well known - hold a `people's assembly' in the streets. There 
were no plans to violently overthrow the government (this would have been 
ludicrous, but it takes the SABC to make people believe it). The march was 
never intended to be anything but a peaceful and powerful expression of the 
discontent with Gqozo, which, it was hoped, would be part of creating 
sufficient pressure for the SA govt to take over control of Ciskei. (If the 
ANC violently overthrew Gqozo, they would be stuck administering a state 
whose existence they do not even acknowledge). The type of propaganda that 
surrounds the ANC's activities really is a sad indictment on the people who 
believe it, and a credit to the ANC, that with so little access to the 
media, it survives this onslaught.

>>I think of all the people involved the ANC is the most shocked. It seems 
>>that ANC activists are the only large group which feels the true shock and 
>>despair at what happened.

>That's unfair.  Large numbers of people were and are shocked.  Unless
>what you're trying to say is that ANC supporters are especially shocked
>for two reasons (1) because mass action didn't work, and (2) their
>supporters got killed.  Many other people are shocked because people
>got killed in a predictable and possibly avoidable confrontation.

Maybe in Grahamstown things are different. Around here, everyone is 
also shocked, but there are different levels of shock: What is happening to 
the country? What a barbaric action? Why are people playing political games 
with people's lives? These are all valid reactions. What I was saying,
however, is that the sense of mourning among ANC supporters, and black 
people in general, simply for the loss of human life is overwhelming when 
compared to the detached response of a lot of other people.

------------
James Nicolson, Department of Electrical Engineering
University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa