From: nss3@kimbark.uchicago.edu (Noel Steere)
Subject: Re: Simulation Games
Reply-To: nss3@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations
Date: Fri, 24 Jul 1992 09:20:17 GMT

In article <1992Jul24.000328.21961@leland.Stanford.EDU> claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>In article <1992Jul23.233531.12766@m.cs.uiuc.edu> silber@m.cs.uiuc.edu (Ami A. Silberman) writes:
>>
>>APBA doesn't handle it all that well, but their idea is basically correct.
>>I'm in a PTP league, and one of the things I've noticed is that we are all
>>very cognizant of extreme and inverse platoon differentials. In real life,
>>if you rate platoon differentials on a scale of -2, -1, 0, 1,..5 with
>>5 being extreme, and -2 being a fairly large inverse platoon differential,
>>and if we could assign players their ideal platoon differential (what they
>>would hit over, say, 5000PA) most hitters would end up with say, a 2, 
>>most switch hitters with a 1, and most pitchers with a 2. If you base it on
>>a given season, you'll get some 4s and 5s, some -2s and -1s. If you base it
>>on a players last three seasons, you'll still end up with some 3s and some
>>-1s or -2s, but nowhere nearly as many. You won't have Sid Fernandez in '91
>>being hell on righties etc. I wish that PTP would go to this system for
>>both hitters and pitchers, right now its often better to bring in a righty
>>pitcher (who may have pitched all of 30 innings) to face a lefty than any
>>of one's lefties (some of whom may have better overall stats) etc.
>>It may not be quite as "statistically valid", but a) the validity is
>>not evidenced if the players are used uncharacteristically, and b) in this
>>case is may be preferable to sacrifice statistical validity for the sake of
>>simulation and versimilitude.
>
>However, I feel that PTP handled the situation basically correct as well, by
>giving limitations to players who have small sample stats against a particular
>hand of pitchers.  For example, Harold Baines, who batted .301 vs. lefties
>with more power than vs. righties last season, was limited to 87 AB vs. LHP.
>This makes a hastle while bookkeeping, but allows more accurate simulation,
>IMO.  (BTW, I platoon Baines with Lonnie Smith, which is somewhat realistic.)

May as well add my voice to the fray, since it seems to be a league
meeting :-)

I think Ami's right.  PTP and Strat try to be accurate for the given
season instead of the players careers.  There was one year where Will
Clark crushed lefties but was dismal against righties.  This made him
almost worthless, since you're going to see at least twice as much RHP
than LHP (which is why I have Van Slyke, Kruk, and Daulton for next
year.  Dave Kirsch thinks I'd be better off with Brian McRae, Andres
Gallaraga, and Sandy Alomar, but what does he know anyway? :-).  If
the cards were fashioned on the players last 3 years, it would work
much better.

But the limitations that PTP uses aren't going to solve much.  They
make the player less valuable (whereas Strat simply neuters the
unrealistic side of the players card), but they're not going to give
you realistic results, since the starting point for the card is the
mean of what the player did that year, which means that there's an
equal chance that the player will have an even more ridiculous season
in the PTP league than he'll go down to a normal level.

As it stands now, I kind of think it's fun dealing with these bizzare
splits.  Where else would it make sense to have Alejandro Pena on the
mound and intentionally walk a right-handed batter to face Ken Griffey
Jr.?

Noel Steere                  |...of the Dave Rossing fan club
GM/Manager, New York Knights |Knights' Run Total: 467 Runs in 93 games
Internet Baseball League     |Projected Season Total: 813  Target: 1000!
nss3@midway.uchicago.edu     |HECTOR VILLANUEVA FOR PRESIDENT
                             |(Heck, the Cubs sure aren't using him!)


>===============================================================================
>GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
>Committee to Elect Johnny Ray as Angels Second Baseman
>Committee to Elect Mike Witt as Angels Ace
>Committee to Elect Cookie Rojas as Angels Manager
>===============================================================================
>Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)


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