From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning
Date: 6 Oct 92 06:49:57 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                     POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

                         ISSUED: 06:00 UT, 06 OCTOBER

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PRIMARY CANDIDATE FOR HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY : REGION 7303 (S13E04@06/00Z)

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   ESTIMATED POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY OVER NEXT 7 DAYS   |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| DAYS |   C5.0   |   M1.0   |   M5.0   |   X1.0   |   X5.0   |   >X12.0   |
|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------|
|1(+) G|   85 %   |   50 %   |   30 %   |   10 %   |   01 %   |     0 %    |
|3(+)PG|   90 %   |   80 %   |   40 %   |   20 %   |   03 %   |     0 %    |
|5( )P |   90 %   |   85 %   |   45 %   |   25 %   |   03 %   |     1 %    |
|7(-)P |   90 %   |   85 %   |   45 %   |   25 %   |   05 %   |     1 %    |
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAYS = Number of days (from present) into the future (1, 3, 5 and 7 days).
(+)  = Primary candidate region expected to GROW and DEVELOP.
( )  = Primary candidate region expected to STABILIZE or remain STABLE.
(-)  = Primary candidate region expected to DECAY and SIMPLIFY.
(x)P = Possible proton and/or PCA threat. (x) may be one of (+), (-), or ( ).
(x)G = If a favorable major flare develops, a moderate to high probability
       exists that the event may be geoeffective.
xx % = Probability of activity equalling or exceeding the given x-ray class
       sometime over the next number of DAYS.
WLT  = Data not applicable due to the West Limb Transit of the target region.

The above chart should be used as a guide only.  It represents anticipated
levels of activity based on current projections of region development.
Actual conditions may, of course, differ from these projections.


SYNOPSIS:

     Region 7303 (S13E04) has undergone very rapid growth and development
over the last 24 hours.  It has increased in size by over 210 millionths (to
240 millionths) and is continuing to develop.  A delta configuration has
already formed on the east side of the central spot complex and is flanked on
the immediate east and west sides by opposite polarity flux.  Gradients are
tightening on the east side of this spot complex within the delta. Expansion
and further development of the leader or central spot complex could result in
several deltas forming in the region over the next 24 to 72 hours. The region
is increasing in temperature and appears to be elevating background xray
levels.

     Although further growth and development may be necessary before major
energetic events erupt from this region, a persisting level of growth could
result in rapid destabilization and the production of major levels of
activity earlier than might otherwise be expected.  For this reason, a
potential major solar flare warning is being issued.

     The location of this spot complex is favorable for producing geophysical
impacts, should influential activity materialize.  The threat for proton
flares is presently relatively small, but may become a factor over the next 3
to 5 days if growth continues and destabilization occurs.

     This warning will remain active until further notice.


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Newsgroups: sci.space.news