From: hyder@cs.utexas.edu (Syed Irfan Hyder)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.pakistan
Subject: Analysis: Present Politcal Scene in Pakistan
Date: 27 Jan 1993 12:49:27 -0600
Organization: CS Dept, University of Texas at Austin
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: pageboy.cs.utexas.edu

Four major events have occurred in recent months.

1: Failure of BB's much trumpeted long march.
2: Black mail by USA: Pakistan will be branded  a terrorist state, 
			unless it proves its  innocence.
3: BB's acceptance of chaimpersonship of "foreign relations committee".
4: GIK tries to strengthen his bid for reelction by supporting NS in
	his annual address. (GIK's term for presidency expires in late 93).

In the backdrop of the changes occurring internationally, the
four events point to two forces shaping the political scene in Pakistan.
One is the politicking by GIK to retain his presidency, and second
is the wheeling and dealing by the ambassador of
USA who is the current Viceroy of Pakistan , to secure USA's interests.

*  GIK was afraid that when his term expires in late 93 there will be no reason
   for NS to  reelect him. He had to cook up a reason.

*  First, by de-stablizing NS govt,
   and then by stabilizing it, GIK decided to give an ample  reason
   He wanted to win NS camp's  favors and, thus,   secure his
   nomination for the 1993 reelection.

*  There must have been an understanding that
   BB's long march will create a situation that will allow GIK to
   to dissolve NS's govt. Note that all the GIK's diehard loyalists came
   together with BB during the long march like Kausar Niazi, and Jatoi.

*: GIK gave a signal to BB probably through the mediator Viceroy
   US interests were in a win-win situation. Any kind
   of destablizing of pakistan's fragile democracy is in its good interests.
   Note its track record in other muslim countries. A ML would have
   been much more commendable (See appendix).
   
*  NS  read the game, and did as expected. The result was the massive
   police effort that caused the march to fizzle out. Clearly disrupting 
   all BB's plans for success (PMship, release of her husband, removal
   of the cases).

*  However, given the BB's "jao baba Jao" campaign of last year agains
   GIK, GIK could not have taken the risk of letting BB assume the
   government and then discarding him, inspite of all the promises.
   He double crossed BB, by not dissolving NS's govt. Probably she
   didn't meet the criteria of creating enough law-order situation.
   Thus, he  endeared himself in the NS camp during the annual 
   address by giving a clean bill of health to NS's govt.

*  BB now had realized the game of being used as a pawn by GIK.
   Spurred on by USA, she finally realized that the only way to
   get rid of GIK and the eighth amendment was to cooperate with
   NS. Note NS had been as afraid of the amendment as BB. But was
   shrewed enough not to let off steam like the way BB did during her
   premiership and lost it consequently.

*  This coming together of the liberal pro-USA forces with NS industrialiast
   groups now gives USA a combined front to the religious lobby who is
   not willing to compromise on  the Nuclear issue. Note both NS and
   BB are in favor of rolling back to the program. Rumors are that it
   had already been rolled back to 1989 level.

Unexplained event:

* Sudden death of Asif Nawaz: It is a well know fact in the medical community
   that there are drugs that can be injected via darts that can bring about
   a sudden cardiac arrest (can find the reference to the journal and article)
   May be Asif Nawaz refused to impose a ML or categorically refused
   to compromise on the nuclear issue and, thus, had to go! Note on his 
   return from USA he once boasted that I am the only COAS who has returned
   from USA without selling off Pakistan's interests!!!