From: geoff@zswamp.UUCP (Geoffrey Welsh)
Newsgroups: alt.bbs,comp.dcom.modems
Subject: Re: RE-USRobotics SysOp deal
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 92 13:59:41 EDT
Organization: Izot's Swamp

brad@clarinet.com (Brad Templeton) writes:

> I do not think that the 16.8K HST will catch on.  In fact, I am not
> even sure about the 2,000 byte/second SuperPEP.

   Your analysis is right on the money for objective measurements, but you 
forget the emotional factor.

   Recently a column in PC Magazine (yes, I'll admit that I read it - but I'm 
not paying for the subscription!) noted the similarities between today's 
computers and the automobiles in the past: people crave bigger, more powerful 
- even if they don't need the extra space or power.

   The same is certainly true of modems.  Many of the buyers of high speed 
modems are BBS operators who live by the chant, "My modem's faster than 
yours".  Economic justification is not their primary concern and, with Mom & 
Pop financing the operation, selling off the 14400 bps modems to pick up the 
latest 16800 bps modems is just another brightly coloured ribbon to hang on 
the system.

   As USRobotics has shown, putting a proprietary modem in a few BBSes starts 
a domino effect, whereby the BBSes that connect to those will also need to 
match its capabilities for connectivity reasons, as will the other BBSes in 
the region for competetive reasons, and the users who can afford to upgrade 
will jump on it because they can get 'more' out of the system (more bytes 
downloaded in the time allotted, mainly).

   I see the 16.8 kbps USR HST spreading in the BBS world, especially in 
FidoNet.  I see the WorldBlazer appearing around the UUCP world.  Any company 
who hints that they're considering a faster-than-V.32bis extension is 
inundated by questions as to when it'll be out.

> But who is going to get excited about a 16.8K non-standard modem when you
> can get a 14.4k standard one?  It's just not worth the hassle.

   Solution: buy a dual standard modem and cover both bases.

> Twice as fast just doesn't sound as exciting as 6 times as fast.

   Exciting?  No.  Then again, I have said for a long time that computer shows 
are not as exciting as they were years ago because today's computers are only 
bigger, faster versions of what was available yesterday.

   That didn't stop mass migration from 1200 bps to 2400, did it, even though 
the jump from 300 to 1200 was a much more "exciting" 300% increase?

> It will have a tougher time catching on as non-standard.  Oh, people will
> buy it, but they will not swamp to it.   And before they can, digital
> connections, switched-56 or isdn, should get cheap.

   Many buyers of high speed dialup modems are not even in a position to 
consider switched-56 mostly because of cost (remember, they often don't really 
*need* 9600+ bps in the first place), but also because they expect to be able 
to connect to any one of many places with their dialups.

   Jim Mercer (jim@lsuc.on.ca) noted that ISDN will probably some undesirable 
attributes, like a 'per kilopacket' charge that resembles current X.25 
charging rates.  While that may make ISDN great for downloading a file with a 
protocol like ZMODEM, it makes it undesirable for interactive use and for many 
TCP/IP type transactions.

   I suspect that analog modems will be here through the turn of the century, 
and that there will always be flocks of people who'll dive for proprietary 
modulation protocols because they're a bit faster.

   We know that Telebit, USRobotics, and Hayes succeeded in capturing niche 
markets, though all eventually had to introduce dual standard modems to hold 
on to them.  Microcom's V.29-based modems with MNP6 seem to have gotten 
nowhere, and Compucom Corporation made a large dent in a short time with their 
Speedmodem... before going out of business.  The question is, who will succeed 
in the next few years?  Will it be those who offer faster proprietary 
modulations before V.fast is ready, or those who jump the gun on V.fast, as 
USR did with V.32bis? 

Geoffrey Welsh, 7 Strath Humber Court, Islington, Ontario, M9A 4C8 Canada
geoff@zswamp.uucp, [xenitec.on.ca|m2xenix.psg.com]!zswamp!geoff (416)258-8467
         Coincidentally, most people who fight for "fairness" would be
         significantly better off under the system they call "fair"...
Newsgroups: alt.bbs