From: Chrys Pelegris <chrysp@zooid.guild.org>
Subject: Stalemate in Cyprus
X-To: ALL
Organization: The Zoo of Ids
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1992 19:03:20 GMT

                  Stalemate tests patience of UN chief
                            Nicosia, Cyprus

                            by: John Bierman
                    Sunday, Nov 15/92 - Toronto Star

    As the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus celebrates its
9th birthday today, Cyprus remains more firmly divided than at any time since
1974 when a mainland Turkish invasion split the island along ethnic lines.
    Leaders of the hostile communities - the Greeks' George Vassiliou and the
Turks' Rauf Denktash - are just back from two weeks of abortive face-to-face
talks under the chairmanship of UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali in Ne
York.  Analysts and diplomats say the last best chance in years for a settlement
has been lost.
     The breakdown of the negotiations is seen as a further blow to UN
credibility following a string of other setbacks:  the unravelling of its peace
initiatives in Cambodia and Angola; the "too little, too late" verdict on its
relief mission to starving Somalia; and the failure of its attempts to avert the
savage civil war in Bosnia.
     The failure to make progress may also be the last straw leading to Canadian
withdrawal from UNFICYP, the 2,100-strong UN peacekeeping force to which Ottawa
has contributed troops without break since 1964.
     Canada is already reducing its 575-man contingent by 61 before the end of
the year.  And as the talks floundered last week, External Affairs Minister
Barbara McDougall gave clear warning of a total pullout some time next year.
"We've been there for 28 years," she said.  "We do not intend to stay very much
longer."
     Other cuts have already put UNFICYP's future effectiveness at risk.
Exasperated by the lack of progress toward a settlement, Denmark, Austria and
Britain are to withdraw hundreds of troops by the end of the year.
     If Canada and Austria carry out their threat of total withdrawal, UNFICYP's
role will be reduced in effect to that of an observer group.  With no other
nations willing to step into the breach, UNFICYP would clearly be unable to
patrol and snuff out incidents along the 160-kilometre (100-mile) buffer zone
separating the 13,000-strong Greek Cypriot National Guard from the estimated
40,000 mainland troops and their local defence force allies on the Turkish side.
     A "set of ideas" formulated by Boutros-Ghali on the basis for the New York
talks had called for the establishment of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation
"with a single sovereignty and international personality."
     On the territorial issue, Denktash rejected altogether the formula proposed
by Boutros-Ghali and reluctantly accepted by Vassiliou.  This called for the
Turkish side, representing under 20 per cent of the total population, to reduce
the present size of its zone from 37 per cent to just over 28 per cent of the
land area.
     Denktash also balked at Boutros-Ghali's proposal that all refugees of the
1974 invasion - 160,000 of them ethnic Greeks - should have the right to go home
He argued that there was no room in the Turkish sector for all the Greeks who
might choose to return.
     On the Greek side, Vassiliou had accepted the UN ideas as a basis for
negotiation, but only in the teeth of fierce opposition from within his own
community.  Political parties of both left and right have joined forces to
denounce the proposals.
     Before leaving New York for home, Vassiliou blamed Denktash for the failure
of the talks.  It remained to be seen whether Boutros-Ghali would also pin the
blame on Denktash.  His report on the matter is expected some time next week.
     But some analysts say the UN chief is under pressure from the West's three
permanent Security Council members - the United States, Britain and France - to
hold back from open criticism on Denktash.  By implication, the blame would
extend to Ankara, which pumps $200 million a year into the Turkish Cypriot mini-
state and is the only government to recognize it.
     But with the end of the Cold War, during which Turkey enjoyed Western
favour as a bulwark against communism, Turkey has assumed a role almost as
important to Western interests:  a bulwark against Islamic fundamentalism.
     As well, Turkey plays a vital role in the West's strategy to bring down
Iraq's Saddam Hussein.  US, British and French warplanes fly from the Turkish
airbase at Incirlik to protect Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq from Saddam's
forces.
     So although a recent Security Council resolution on Cyprus said that the
status quo is "not acceptable," most observers believe it is just what the
outcome will be.
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 * SLMR 2.1a * Macedonia = Greece