From: timr@sco.COM (Tim Ruckle)
Subject: Re: 49er/Bills
Organization: The Gifted and the Damned
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 05:36:41 GMT
Summary: Great game--hats off to the Bills
Keywords: Offense, oFfense, ofFense, offEnse, offeNse, offenSe, offensE


Va negvpyr <1992Sep14.003242.1493@enterprise.rdd.lmsc.lockheed.com>
marshall@force.ssd.lmsc.lockheed.com jevgrf:
} In probably the most entertaining game of the day...

Well, others may not appreciate this kind of shootout, but for my money
this was a great game.  Put two of the most potent offenses in the game
on the field and it's no wonder the defenses are going to look relatively
poor.

} the Buffalo Bills' offense outlasted the 49ers' offense, winning the
} game 34-31 after converting a late 3rd-and-16/4th-and-4 situation into
} a first down and then scoring on Thurman Thomas's 11-yard TD run up the
} middle on the next play.

(both 49er safeties blitzing on the play, BTW...was that intentional?)

} The 49ers' repeated failures to stop the Bills on third down
} (and on fourth down) were the key to the game.

I'll have to disagree here Bob.  The Bills repeatedly failed to stop the
Niners as well, so I'd call this factor a draw...

} The other key was Mike Cofer's continuing impersonation of a field goal
} kicker. He missed an easy 33-yarder, made a 24-yarder by the skin of his
} teeth (the kick hit the upright and bounced through), and then with a chance
} to send the game into overtime with less than a minute left he missed
} a 47-yarder wide right.

Yup, Cofer is going to be the pariah for Niners fans.  It doesn't take much
for kickers to fall from grace (recall his NFL point leading performance of
'89 (136) when he converted 17 straight, or the pressure kicks to win three
in '90).  But confidence is critical for a kicker, and Cofer don't seem to
got none o' that no more.

Perhaps Seifert elected to try for a tie partly to get some of that back for
him.  Well, he lost that gamble.  And he (Seifert) lost the game.  I think
that was a key screwup...

} The 49ers built a 24-13 halftime lead, only to see the Bills score
} two touchdowns in a row on their first two possessions of the second
} half (meanwhile the 49ers were busy fumbling away their first two
} possessions; both fumbles were due to excellent plays on behalf of
} Buffalo, though).

Okay, maybe another key.  Watters is doing great.  Rathman is doing great.
But the Niners feel compelled to use Henderson, who's handled the ball 11
times and fumbled three of those in two games.  If it ain't broke, don't
fix it--leave Rathman in there as the lone Fullback, even if he's not as
quick as Henderson (or go with Watters back there--sorry Keith, but you
just don't look like an NFL caliber runner to me...).

Then, with Rice knocked out, your third (Sherrard) and fourth-string (Turner)
wide-receivers are tearing them up.  So if your starting tight end is knocked
out, your try a pass to your blocking one, right?  Wrong.  Williams kills the
drive with a fumble.  I wonder how much Metzelaars performance influenced the
Niners (or was it Young?) into thinking they had to get it to their TE...

} Buffalo then played giveaway on their next two possessions, and the 49ers
} were able to come back and take a 31-27 lead in the fourth quarter on a
} 56-yard TD pass to John Taylor on third down and 22 to go. Then the 49ers
} were driving deep in Buffalo territory late in the game when Young made a
} truly awful pass that was intercepted by Nate Odoms. The Bills promptly
} drove down the field for the winning score, and that was that.

Yup, you could call this another key play.  The Niners might have put the
game away with another TD, and Sherrard was open.  But the turnovers were
a draw as well--each team trading 2 fumble recoveries and an interception.

} Both offenses moved at will; I'll really be interested to see the
} third-down conversion numbers.

49ers 8 of 13 (61.5%) and Bills 6 of 12 (50.0%).  Both teams converted
on their only 4th down attempts.

} There were no punts in the game,

This has never, *ever* happened in the entire (73-year) history of the NFL.
Each team had third downs in their own territory 4 times, but converted on
every one.  (there've been only seven NFL games in which there was only one
punt, the last in '89 when the Bears had the only punt against the Packers)

} and there were five field goal attempts, so there were at least five
} missed third down tries. Plus the Bills' 3rd-and-16 play late in the
} game. Plus a 3rd-and-1 for the Giants on which they fumbled. So I'd
} guess there were maybe only 9 or 10 missed third down opportunities
} in the entire game, a very low number.

The stats say there were 11... (now how come a field goal, particularly
one that's made, is a "missed" third down?  cuz you had the "opportunity"?)

} The 49ers piled up 598 yards of offense, and the Bills had 488 yards, 
} for a total of 1086 yards, the fourth highest total in NFL history.

Okay, here's a "what if" that occured in my alternate Niner-fan universe:
with about a minute left, the 49ers convert a 4th-and-9 from the Bills
29 on a crossing pattern to Odessa Turner.  On 1st-and-10 from the 18,
the Bills blitz and sack a scrambling Young on the 22.  But Young lines
'em up fast and gives it to Watters on a draw, who dances into the endzone
for a touchdown.  Cofer Kick.  Niners lead 38-34.

Niners squib kick and the Bills start on their own 37 with 10 seconds
remaining.  Lofton catches one over the middle for 19 yards to the
49er 44.  Bills Time out.  On the next play Harris buries Kelly and
his pass to Beebe goes incomplete (Harris walks back to the line casually,
picking his nose with an extended index finger...).  On the last play of
the game, Kelly unloads it for a Hail Mary into the endzone, and rookie
Dana Hall (after receiving smelling salts on the sideline) puts a vicious
hit on Reed to knock the ball loose.  Game over.

Another NFL record set: 1134 yards of offense in one game, breaking the
Rams vs. Yankees record from '55.  Oh yes, and the Niners win it. ;^)

} Young was 26-37 for 449 yards, and Kelly had only slightly lower numbers.

Kelly was 22 of 33 for 403 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT--almost identical...
(Last QB with that kind of performance was Moon, who threw for 527 yards
against KC in '90)

Deja vu all over again?  In '85, Young led the Express (USFL) to a 33-13
lead in their season-opener, only to see Kelly bring back the Houston
Gamblers by scoring 20 points in nine minutes--that day Kelly had 575
yards passing, and Young over 400.

Some random stats:
The Niners had not lost a game to an AFC East team for almost a decade--
when in '83 the Dolphins beat 'em by 3 (again) 20-17.  The 49ers had
won 10 straight against that division, including the last two games
against the Bills (23-10 in '83 & 21-10 in '89).  The Niners have lost
12 games in Seifert's 3+ seasons as head coach, but only one by more
than a touchdown.  (I believe that was one of the few times the 49ers
scored more than 30 points and still lost the game in a number of years...)

} Ricky Watters had another decent game, gaining about 80 yards on the
} ground and catching a few passes, too.

16 carries for 83 yards, 4 catches for 22.  Rathman had 5 carries for 20
yards and 1 TD.

} Jerry Rice was knocked out of the game in the first quarter with a
} concussion, but it's hard to say that this cost the 49ers the game.

I didn't get to see this, since the network was busy letting me watch
the Raiders lose in OT.  (if only I'd been rooting for Cofer he would
have made that first kick, dammit... ;^)

} Mike Sherrard filled in very ably, as did Odessa Turner. Rice returned 
} to the sidelines but did not return to the playing field. I didn't hear
} any further reports, but I suspect he will be able to play next week.

He's listed as "probable", along with Dana Hall (also a concussion),
David Whitmore (bruised shin), and Marc Logan (also bruised shin).
Starting TE Brent Jones is "doubtful" because of a strained hamstring.
Not good, since the Niners have only one other healthy one (Jamie
Williams).

} Not surprisingly, Jim Kelly picked the 49ers secondary apart. Kelly
} calls his own plays, many of them audibles. He would go up to the
} line, take a look at the 49ers' alignment, and you could hear the wheels
} spinning in his head - "Ah, OK, I'll take advantage of that...".
} He really made the 49ers look bad, espeically Merton Hanks, who had
} an abyssmal day trying to cover Andre Reed (although Hanks did have one
} key interception). Dana Hall also looked pretty bad (again). I would have
} to say that Don Griffin looked pretty good, though.

The 49ers began the game by trading in saftey Whitmore for a cornerback
to cover the three wide receivers of the Bills.  Later they went with
a full-time nickle, with both Whitmore and Merton Hanks in there.  The
Niners had planned to have linebacker Michael Walter make the defensive
calls (instead of Hall) but once they went with the nickle Walter was
out.  Hall is definitely the weak link in the secondary at this point.
I'm still willing to cut the rookie some slack, but it is certainly quite
painful to watch.  

} The pass rush was non-existent. I think Tim Harris' name only came up 
} one time, and that was on the second touchdown pass to Metzelaars where
} Harris somehow ended up covering him in the end zone. And I don't remember
} Dennis Brown's name being mentioned once.

I grant you the pressure seemed non-existant, even though the Niners had
3 sacks (Johnson 1-10, Holt 1-7, & Carter 1-5) to the Bills' 1 (Hansen 1-10).
But Young came back two plays later to hit Taylor for 54 yards.  The 49ers
won this (marginal) contest.

The Niner offensive line did very well.  (I mean, Smith couldn't even hurdle
right tackle Wallace ;^)  In fact, Smith did not make a single tackle.  And
Bennet got only three himself (though one forced a fumble).  Switching 'em
around didn't help--they couldn't get past the Niner line.

The critique of the 49er secondary should be tempered by these two things:
the quality of the Bills offense, and the lack of help from the defensive
line.  I think this is definitely their sore spot, but not as bad as this
debacle would indicate.

} Fortunately the 49ers only have to face one more quarterback this year
} who has the talent to pick apart the 49ers' secondary the way Kelly did
} (Dan Marino). The secondary obviously does not have the talent to cope
} with a quarterback with Kelly's skill, but with the 49ers' ability to
} put points on the board I think they will be able to hold their own
} against the more mediocre QBs they will be facing.

They should get a break for a few weeks.  But don't discount the Falcons,
who they play on October 18th (and again November 9th).  Hopefully Dana
Hall, like Rice in his rookie year, will come together in the second half
of the season...

Now, how many secondaries have coped with Kelly and the Bills receiver's
skill?  The Super Bowl champs last year?  Sure.  KC, New England, Detroit?
I dunno for sure.  The 49ers secondary is their Number One problem right
now.  But I don't think their talent, albeit inexperienced talent, is all
that bad.  If you're expecting Pro-Bowlers, then maybe so--otherwise I think
they can put up a respectable showing (but like almost anybody else, will
get burned against some of the best folks the league has to offer...).

} So, all in all a great game that had to be soured a little by a somewhat
} anti-climactic finish (no one likes to see a game like this decided by
} a missed field goal). As for its effect on the 49ers, at least it was
} not a division game or even a conference game.

I'm going to say this one more time, since it really is bugging me--why the
hell, on 4th-and-9, when you've been averaging 8.8 yards per play, do you go
for a 47-yard FG (that's perhaps 20 yards out of Cofer's range...)?  I just
don't get it.  Perhaps I'm still lost in the revelry of the Montana comebacks
with Walsh on the sidelines, but I can't help but second-guess Seifert on
this one.  If the Bills defense had held 'em on fourth, then fine.  I would
have been disappointed but accepting.  At least Norwood's kick was for the
win...

} Positive signs for 49ers : Steve Young, Ricky Watters, Tom Rathman, 
}      Don Griffin, kickoff return coverage, Mike Shanahan, next
}      nine games against Saints (twice), Rams (twice), Falcons (twice),
}      Jets, Patriots, and Cardinals.

Other positives: Sherrard and Turner & the offensive line.

} Negative signs for 49ers : Mike Cofer, secondary, Mike Cofer, pass rush,
}      Mike Cofer, Dana Hall, Mike Cofer, Merton Hanks

Other negatives: injury to Jones, Henderson's fumbles, unproven punter.
And Rice out early (despite the good showing of others) and that last
damn drive (Seiferts fault, or Shanahan's?)...

Finally, I'm not so sure the Saints and Falcons will be pushovers.  If
we go 4-2 in the division I'll be satisfied.

-timr

PS:

} On an issue not related to the game, Joe Montana had more surgery
} performed on his elbow Saturday. It was a 45-minute operation which was
} supposed to relieve some pressure that was causing him pain. Supposedly
} it was "no big deal", and should not affect the plans to have Joe come
} off of IR in the fifth week, but it's just another indication to me 
} that it's all over for Joe.

I still think that the reports of Montana's death are greatly exaggerated.
Still, it does smack of fans getting jerk'd around like last year's offical
mumblings regarding Joe's condition.  As one SF jounalist put it:

  Last Saturday's minor elbow operation, the 49ers insist, was routine.
  Elective.  Optional.  Kind of like a shoe shine.
  *Honey, is there anything good on TV?  No?  Maybe I'll go over to the
  hospital and have some elbow surgery.*

Team othropedist Dr. Dillingham said it was unrelated to to the tendon
problem.  The doctors were convinced that it would not impact his rehab
schedule.  He's on IR for two more weeks anyways.  He'll be back soon.
It was entirely Joe's decision.  Blah blah blah.

I'll be satisfied when he comes off the bench for one of his patented
come_from_behind victories in the fourth quarter. (preferably against
the Bills in January... %^)

Otherwise he'll probably end up with the Raiders next year.  Or as a
relief pitcher for the A's.

On second thought, let's teach the poor bastard how to kick field goals...

--
Life is a black, sucking, vortex of anguish and despair, filled with brief
moments of false hope and empty joy, all the while dragging you inevitably
closer to final, absolute, and eternal death.''            --Homer Simpson
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro