From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 August
Date: 23 Aug 92 19:17:08 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               22 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 235, 08/22/92
10.7 FLUX=121.6  90-AVG=125        SSN=064      BKI=1132 3335  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B4.5     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2233 5435  PAI=022
  BOU-DEV=009,009,025,019,033,025,029,076   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.2   @ 1453UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.0   @ 0043UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.8
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2225UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1240UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1610UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1445UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55255NT @ 1002UT   BOUTF-MIN=55193NT @ 0056UT  BOUTF-AVG=55251NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+195NT@ 2205UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-103NT@ 2132UT  G7-AVG=+094,+047,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+218NT@ 2349UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-115NT@ 2301UT  G6-AVG=+093,+005,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,110,105;SESC:115,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=2224 3221 2224 3221  27DAY-AP=007,010   27DAY-KP=3312 2222 3122 2333
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*PROTON;*FORBUSH;*MAGPAUSE
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1325-1349UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity remained low, although numerous frequent C-class flares
were observed from Region 7260 (N16W63).  The largest flare of the day was a
class C6.2/SF event at 14:53 UT.

     Region 7260 remains large in spatial extent, at near 1070 millionths in
an EKC configuration.  However, it has decayed and simplified over the last
48 hours and lost its delta configuration over the last 24 hours.  Further
simplification is expected in tandem with additional frequent B and C-class
subflare activity.  An isolated M-class flare is still remotely possible, but
is growing increasingly unlikely.  Major flare activity is not expected from
this group.

     No new regions were assigned.  Aside from Region 7260, nothing of
interest is visible.  The only other regions visible are Regions 7264
(N13W24) and 7265 (S19E27) which are small, simple, and lifeless.

     Solar activity is expected to be mostly low.  There is a lingering
possibility for another minor M-class flare before Region 7260 rotates behind
the west limb.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled over the last 24
hours.  Minor to major storming has developed early in the UT day of 23
August.  A Forbush decrease began at 01:00 UT on 23 August and continues in
progress at the time of this writing.  Minor to major storming is expected
to continue for the next 12 to 18 hours and should end later this UT day.
More details will be dicussed in the daily report for 23 August (tommorrow).

     A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning has been issued early in the
UT day of 23 August.  Conditions are rapidly becoming favorable for middle
latitude sightings of auroral activity.  Reports of visible activity as far
south as Maine have been received early in the UT day.  A preliminary
assessment of the observed levels of activity will be made available in the
daily report for 23 August.  The auroral activity warning for the middle
latitudes will remain active until 18:00 UT on 23 August.  It will either be
updated or allowed to expire at that time.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  Conditions are
expected to become moderately to strongly degraded from the middle to polar
latitude paths due to the geomagnetic storming which is being observed.
Signals passing through these regions can expect strong fading and flutter,
multipathing, and occasional strong signal absorption.  Middle latitudes
should see some improvements early on 24 August, while high and polar
latitude paths should begin to improve by 25 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7260  N16W63  255  1070 EKC  14  032 BETA-GAMMA
7264  N13W24  216  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7265  S19E27  165  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 AUGUST TO 25 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7245 S07   064
7257 S20   063


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
22/ 0149     0153     0227                LDE    B9.6   38
22/B1352             A1404       N11W15   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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