From: barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us (Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS: KENYA: TIME RUNNING OUT FOR FORD
Originator: barnhart@gagme
Organization: Gagme Public Access UNIX, Chicago, Illinois.
Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1992 13:58:28 GMT

Area: Africa, west
Title: KENYA: TIME RUNNING OUT FOR FORD


an inter press service feature

by pamphil h. kweyuh

nairobi, aug 19 (ips) -- the death of opposition forum for the
restoration of democracy (ford) interim vice chair, henry
masinde muliro, widely regarded as the ''voice of reason''
within ford may throw the party into further disarray.

muliro, one of the four presidential hopefuls in ford died of
a heart attack friday morning on his return from a three day
visit to london.

at the time of his death he was involved in a man-to-man
reconcilition mission within his party, which since mid july has
been wracked by internal division, with four candidates,
including himself, vying to represent ford in presidential
elections.

one section of the party led by party interim chair and
presidential hopeful jaramogi oginga odinga, wants the party's
presidential candidate elected by delegates, and has proceeded
with elections, since late july,

the other faction led by martin shikuku and kenneth matiba,
who have also announced their intentions to run for the
nomination, would like to see the election of the party
contender to stand against president daniel arap moi by
universal sufferage before the end of september.

''the division within ford is not permanent. it is a
temporary, largely democratic disagreement that can and is going
to be overcome,'' muliro had said while in london.

but at the peak of the disagreement that has pitted oginga
against his party secretary general shikuku, and matiba, muliro
had refused to join either camp.

according to muliro, oginga and matiba were both to blame for
being ''armed to the teeth and sparing nothing, including party
unity, for their ambitions''.

against this background, muliro was largely perceived as
a compromise candidate, who could draw support from both sides
and many believe his death is a great loss to ford.

''the party's future unity lay in the respect and support
that masinde had vis-avis the fact that he refused to join
camps. his motto, as we understood it was one kenya one ford,''
wasike wanjala, an accountant from muliro's cherengani electoral
constitutency told ips. (more/ips)


kenya: time (2)

''he was going to come out victorious in the party
presidential election because while he had the support of many
of his luhya ethnic group, he also drew wide non-ethnic support
from across the country,'' adds wanjala.

''in muliro, we had seen what ford stood for at the formation
time. in the factions, we saw an even uglier mask (copying the
politics of president) moi: ambition and people who believe,
against the people's wishes that they must lead,'' says janet
magotsi, a nairobi typist.

''they have failed to organise free and fair elections. yet
parliamentary, civic and presidential elections, will be
called by march, if moi is fair. will they be prepared? yes or
no time is running out for the opposition,''she adds.

fears abound that with a weakened opposition and moi
insisting that the kenyan constitution has no provision for a
coalition government, moi, who came to power in 1978 under
one-party rule, could be on his way back to state house for a
third term legitamised by a democratic poll.

''with no effective opposition, people are bound to
rejoin (his ruling party) kanu,'' says magotsi.

but despite the squabbles, some observers feel ford is not
yet as spent a force as it appears to be. at a recent news
conference, matiba said there was in fact only one ford and no
splinter existed.

''central, eastern, coast and western provinces are almost
certainly ford zones. the question is, if the party cannot
accomodate oginga, it may certainly lose nyanza province,''
says nairobi business man josiah njoroge.

a british diplomat who declined to be named believes ''the
shikuku-matiba duo appears strong enough to win the presidency,
even without oginga's support.''

according to the diplomat, poor turn out and the fact that
out of 44 (administrative) districts, less than 15 have held
anything close to party elections was a sure indicator of the
weaknesses of the oginga camp.

''but before matiba-shikuku come out forcefully, they must,
now join camps clearly and publicly as running mates,'' he
said. while matiba commands massive support among the ethnic
gikuyu, embu and meru of central and eastern provinces,
shikuku's support cuts across the country.

''but how will ford win with the new clause that the
president must win at least 25 percent of all votes in at least
five out of eight electoral provinces?. it may be wise, after
all for oginga to rejoin the winning ford,'' says njoroge.
(end/ips/phk/tvh/oa/92)


-- 
Aaron (Barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us) -- posting from Evanston, Illinois