From: nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson)
Subject: Re: "American Ideals" (was: AMERICA IN DECLINE)
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1992 14:10:02 GMT
Organization: Hewlett-Packard Corporation, Chelmsford, MA

In article <1992Jul29.221540.25625@oakhill.sps.mot.com> pjm@anegada.sps.mot.com (Patrick J. McGuinness) writes:
>In article <Bs45yB.FLx@apollo.hp.com> nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson) writes:

>>>I *will*. I further predict that China will democratize within
>>>the next 20 years.
>>
>>  Give me your address and I'll buy you the dinner of your choice at
>>  the restaurant of your choice if Russia and Poland both are capitalistic
>>  and democratic in 10 years, and did not slip into a military dictatorship
>>  in the interim.
>
>As long as short-term crises like aborted coups (France '58 or USSR '91)
>don't count as slipping into military dictatorship, I'm game.

 Aborted (USSR '91, etc) is OK, successful (Peru '92) cancels the deal.  

>The Russian Tea Room in NYC would be apropos. :-)

 Sounds good to me;  10 years ought to just give us enough time to make 
 a reservation, too.                        


>>(I'll define "capitalist" as 51% or more of GDP generated
>>  by private companies.  By this definition Sweden, the UK, Singapore, Japan,
>>  and the US are all capitalist.  And I'll define "democratic" as having
>>  the active, legal, participation of two or more political parties, both
>>  of whom having representatives in the national legislative body.   I
>>  know these are caricature definitions but they'll do for dinner  8-)  )
>
>Fair enough, but your caricature regarding two-parties does make the
>LDP-dominated Japan and PRI-dominated Mexico suspect.

  I'm not familiar with Mexico, but the in Japan the opposition parties
  do have nontrivial representation in the Diet, so that's OK with me;
  there's no sense in which it appears to be illegal to not be a member
  of the ruling party or anything like that.  

  My rationale for this bet is as follows:  I'm quite pessimistic about
  the future of eastern Europe so I *hope* to be wrong.  Besides if the 
  region does go back to their old totalitarian ways this will probably 
  result in another arms race which will cost me far more in taxes than 
  than the few hundred dollars that even an expensive restaurant would 
  cost.


>P.S.
>I'll see your bet and raise you one ... I'm willing to bet on continued
>development of China, specifically south China, in the form of 
>buying, say, some Hong Kong Telecom stock.
>Care to short the same stock, in anticipation of a communist crackdown
>in 1997?

  Can you short foreign stock?  I do have a margin account at Schwab
  that I set up specifically to do shorts but I haven't made
  much us of it since ordinarily when you do a short you're in effect
  betting against the management of the company, i.e., they're doing
  their level best to prove the short investor wrong.
                                                     
  BTW, on the subject of Hong Kong:   We were discussing immigration
  a while back on the net with me taking the "free immigration"
  position.  Hong Kong represents a good illustration - - - 

  It is apparent that the Communists in China are still up to their
  old tricks.  A recent book was published and widely reviewed by 
  a victim of their prison labor system who made it to Hong Kong.
  He detailed the tortures, forced labor and hideous conditions he
  suffered under.  It is widely documented that China still uses
  prison labor (essentially slave labor) to compete in world com-
  mercial markets   The Wall Street Journal has run several articles
  on this in recent weeks. 

  Yet this is the regime that will take over Hong Kong soon.

  1.)  Hong Kong is a prosperous, free society which will soon
  come under the rule of one of the most putrid, totalitarian
  dictatorships remaining on the face of the earth.   It's a deal
  cut between Her Majesty's government and the Communists, with
  scarce concern for what the people of Hong Kong want.  This sort
  of manipulation of planetary real estate like pieces on a chess
  board might have been acceptable during the heyday of 19th century 
  imperialism, but I'm appalled that no one else is appalled about
  it in the 1990's.

  2.)  Hong Kong is currently home to some of the most hard-working, 
  talented, productive people in the world today, and is a bastion
  of capitalist values, self-reliance, and industriousness.  These
  people will soon be living in a Communist nation.  We should not
  only welcome any of them who want to come here, but US companies,
  chambers of commerce and the State Department ought to open up
  a recruiting office in Hong Kong to try to *encourage* them to
  come here!   It would be a shot in the arm for the US economy --
  they would bring ideas, drive, talent, ambition, etc to our shores
  when we really need it.  


---peter

  
  



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