From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1992 18:28:03 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              07 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 251, 09/07/92
10.7 FLUX=131.7  90-AVG=124        SSN=063      BKI=3435 4333  BAI=022
BGND-XRAY=C1.7     FLU1=2.8E+06  FLU10=1.6E+04  PKI=2435 4333  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=032,059,028,084,046,025,020,024   DEV-AVG=039 NT     SWF=09:197
 XRAY-MAX= M7.1   @ 0637UT    XRAY-MIN= B9.7   @ 1631UT   XRAY-AVG= C6.2
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2330UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1320UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1820UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55446NT @ 0336UT   BOUTF-MIN=55388NT @ 1715UT  BOUTF-AVG=55425NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+685NT@ 2204UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-018NT@ 1009UT  G7-AVG=+074,+044,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+106NT@ 0851UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-025NT@ 1558UT  G6-AVG=+086,-013,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,145,135;SESC:140,145,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/020,015,015
    KFCST=3344 4333 3333 4333  27DAY-AP=012,010   27DAY-KP=2333 2333 3333 3222
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M7.1/2B,S09W43(7270),0628-0637-0642;**MINFLR:M3.6@0354UTC;
          **MAJFLR:M5.7/2B,S10W53(7270),1925-1941-1955;**MINFLR:M1.2@0859UTC;
          **MINFLR:M3.8@1311;**MINFLR:M3.0@2111;**MINFLR:M2.9@2306;
          **245STRM:0650-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued at high levels over the last 24 hours.  Region
7270 (S10W58) was responsible for an additional two major M-class flares,
four minor M-class events, and four C-class flares.  The largest of these was
an M7.1/2B flare at 06:37 UT.  This was followed later in the day by a major
class M5.7/2B flare at 19:41 UT.  None of these flares were associated with
notable radio bursts and all lacked Type II or IV sweeps.

     Region 7270 slowed in growth today and showed early signs of
stabilization in flare output.  Despite this, the group was able to produce a
prodigious amount of activity.  The region has retained its delta
configuration and is 690 millionths in area in an EKC optical configuration.
Additional minor and major M and/or X class flare activity is possible from
this group over the next 48 to 72 hours.  Activity may gradually become less
frequent by 10 September.  There is a continuing risk for possible proton
flaring from this region.  At the present time, no protons have been observed
in the near-Earth space environment.

     New Region 7276 (N15E77) was numbered today and represents the return of
old Region 7260.  This region heralded its arrival with an M1.1/SF flare at
00:09 UT with an associated bright surge out to 0.18 solar radii on the
northeast limb.  A class M3.0/1B flare followed from this region at 21:11 UT.
Limb observations show the group to be a DAO type spot group of more than 120
millionths.  However, limb proximity prevented an accurate determination of
the structure of this region.

     Solar activity is expected to continue moderate to high.  Major M and/or
X-class flaring remains possible from Region 7270.  An isolated proton flare
is also not out of the question. Isolated minor M-class events are expected
from Region 7276.  A slight risk also exists for a major flare from this
group.

     Geomagnetic activity was mostly unsettled to active.  Activity is
expected to continue mostly unsettled to active with possible minor storm
periods over the next 24 to 48 hours.  The possible arrival of interplanetary
disturbances from the recent major X-class flares could enhance activity.
However, these major events were not associated with particularly favorable
characteristics and hence are not expected to produce very significant
enhancements in geomagnetic activity, if any disturbances arrive at all.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.
Propagation over the daylit hemispheres was frequently disrupted by
absorption from minor and major solar flaring.  Short wave fadeouts (SWFs)
are expected to continue to degrade paths over the daylit hemispheres during
periods of minor and/or major solar flaring.  Possible enhancements in
geomagnetic and auroral activity associated with the recent major X-class
flares of 06 September could degrade propagation over the polar and high
latitude signal paths on 08 and/or 09 September.  Rather unstable conditions
are expected to persist through much of the next 3 to 5 days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7270  S10W57  038  0690 EKC  15  029 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7274  N05W37  018  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7276  N16E76  265  0120 DAO  05  003 BETA
7273  S16W55  036                    PLAGE
7275  S08W86  067                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 SEPTEMBER TO 10 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0001 0009 0011 7276  N12E90 M1.1  SF
 0335 0354 0407 7270  S10W49 M3.6  2B    300
 0412 0412 0412                          430
 0422 0422 0423                         3800
 0628 0637 0801 7270  S08W52 M7.1  2B    130 130
 0846 0859 0919 7270  S09W49 M1.2  SN    160
 1300 1311 1341 7270  S09W58 M3.8  SN        84
 1925 1941 2108 7270  S11W57 M5.7  2B    640 59
 2104 2111 2114 7276  N17E85 M3.0  1B        27
 2251 2252 2252                          260
 2257 2306 2321 7270  S10W59 M2.9  1B    630 86


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
07/ 0628     0637     0801       S08W52   LDE    M7.1   93
07/ 1300     1311     1341       S09W58   LDE    M3.8   41
07/ 1925     1941     2108       S11W57   LDE    M5.7  103


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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