From: carl@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU (Carl J Lydick)
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
Subject: Re: Rifkin (Was: Vegetarian reason)
Date: 16 Jun 92 03:31:23 GMT
Reply-To: carl@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU
Organization: HST Wide Field/Planetary Camera

In article <altar.708625825@sfu.ca>, altar@beaufort.sfu.ca (Ted Wayn Altar) writes:
>=============================================================
>|   OBSERVED-TO-EXPECTED CORONARY HEART DISEASE MORTALITY   |
>|                     ADVENTIST MEN                         |
>|                                                           |
>|  Total Vegetarians                14%                     |
>|  Lacto-Ovo-Vegetarians            39%                     |
>|  Meat Users                       56%                     |
>|                                                           |
>=============================================================
>Note that even the SDA meat users have a lower than expected
>mortality which can be accounted for in large part by the fact
>that even meat eating SDA's eat less meat then North Americans 
>in general.

As usual, totally useless statistics are provided.  So the vegetarians have a
lower mortality rate due to coronary heart disease than do the non-vegetarians.
A possibility that these statistics provide no insight into is that the
vegetarians are simply dying of other causes before they have a chance to die
of coronary heart disease.  Life expectancy figures would have been more useful
here.

>To take another example, consider the RELATIVE risk of breast
>cancer among Japanese woman (from a paper by Hirayama cited in
>John Scharffenberg's "Problems with Meat", 1989) 
>
>=================================================================
>|                 RELATIVE RISK OF BREAST CANCER                |
>|                                                               |
>|                              Meat       Eggs    Butter/cheese |
>|  less than once per week      1.0        1.0        1.0       |
>|  2-4 times per week           2.55       1.91       3.23      |
>|  almost daily                 3.83       2.86       2.10      |
>=================================================================
>
>Such results again affirm the general rule that less is better 
>and none is likely best.

Again, the statistics cited tell us nothing.

>=================================================================
>|           Meat Use and Ovary Cancer Death Rates:              |
>|                                                               |
>|  Lacto-ovo-vegetarian Adventists                15.9/100,000  |
>|  Adventists using meat 1-3 times per week       18.0/100,000  |
>|  General population                             24.0/100,000  |
>|                                                               |
>=================================================================

And again, the statistics presented without necessary context are useless.  If
your understanding of what you're reporting is in any way indicative of the
rigor of the studies you're summarizing, there's no reason to attach any
significance at all to the studies.
>   +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>   +                                                               +
>   +     RELATIVE PERCENTAGE OF LIFE STYLE FACTORS CONTRIBUTING    +
>   + TO A DECREASED LIFE EXPECTANCY FROM ATHEROSCLEROSIS & CANCER  +
>   +                                                               +
>   +           Tobacco                                 25%         +
>   +                                                               +
>   +           Meat                                    25%         +
>   +                                                               +
>   +           diary Products                          15%         +
>   +           eggs, high fat                                      +
>   +           foods                                               +
>   +                                                               +
>   +           Obesity                                 10%         +
>   +                                                               +
>   +           Lack of Exercise                        10%         +
>   +                                                               +
>   +           Stress, refined sugars,                 15%         +
>   +           other factors                                       +
>   +                                                               +
>   +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

>The above chart is useful in providing one estimate of the relative
>contribution of life style factors for an increased risk for
>atherosclerosis and cancer.

Sure, it is.  But without a hell of a lot more information, that chart tells us
absolutely nothing important.  I don't especially care WHAT I die of.  I'd be
far more concerned about WHEN I die.  If, as I proposed above, the figures
you're giving happen to mask the fact that vegetarians die of other causes
earlier than do the non-vegetarians, then the prescriptive conclusions to be
drawn from the studies are reversed.

>In particular, Scharffenberg employed epidemiological data educed from some
>vegetarian populations (e.g., Seventh Day Adventists).  It turns out from
>Scharffenberg's data that the best diet for human beings in terms of health
>and longevity is vegetarian.  In general, vegetarians live about 6 years
>longer than their meat eating counterparts (i.e., meat-eating Seventh Day
>Adventists).  If we select as our comparison group only those Seventh Day
>Adventists who still eat meat AND who do not smoke, it turns out that their
>total vegetarian counterparts still out live them by 3 years.

OK, this is getting us somewhere.  What other factors did the study control
for?  Vegetarianism is one of the religious tenets (or damned close to it) for
SDAs.  One would expect that those who were a member of the church and NOT
vegetarians would differ in other ways from those who adhered more closely to
the church's tenets.  Was this accounted for in the study?

>Hence, even
>when we use a somewhat CONSERVATIVE comparison group (remember, not all
>SDA's are vegetarian but on the whole they would still eat less
>meat then the average North American) and thereby control for known life
>style hazards like smoking, VEGETARIANS STILL LIVE LONGER (ABOUT 3 YEARS)
>THAN EVEN MODERATE MEAT EATERS, meat eaters who otherwise share essentially
>the same life style.

Are you SURE they share essentially the same lifestyle?  They differ in one
fairly important way, why do you assume that belonging to the church means that
they're the same in all other ways?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carl J Lydick | INTERnet: CARL@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU | NSI/HEPnet: SOL1::CARL

Disclaimer:  Hey, I understand VAXen and VMS.  That's what I get paid for.  My
understanding of astronomy is purely at the amateur level (or below).  So
unless what I'm saying is directly related to VAX/VMS, don't hold me or my
organization responsible for it.  If it IS related to VAX/VMS, you can try to
hold me responsible for it, but my organization had nothing to do with it.


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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic