From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- NL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 1992 18:01:02 GMT



                  NL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                 (through games of Tuesday, August 11)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maddux         CHI   13.9   5.2  0.726   14  9   2.35   37.4   4.09
Tewksbury      STL   12.4   4.5  0.734   10  5   2.18   33.9   3.69
Drabek         PIT   12.4   7.1  0.636    9  9   2.67   26.2   2.45
Swift          SFG    9.2   4.5  0.672    8  3   2.40   20.6   2.25
Glavine        ATL   11.7   7.0  0.625   17  3   3.01   21.3   2.36
Smoltz         ATL   12.5   7.8  0.614   14  7   3.09   21.0   2.33
Morgan         CHI   10.4   6.4  0.620   10  5   3.10   18.6   1.92
Swindell       CIN   10.7   6.7  0.614   10  5   3.04   18.6   1.94
Schilling      PHI    8.0   4.8  0.625    8  5   2.95   14.0   1.49
Avery          ATL   10.7   7.6  0.584    9  8   3.30   15.7   1.47
Martinez,D     MON   10.1   7.3  0.581   12 10   3.30   12.6   1.28
Barnes         MON    4.5   1.7  0.724    4  3   2.02   12.6   1.41
Fernandez      NYM    9.2   6.5  0.584    9  9   2.98   13.0   1.21
Leibrandt      ATL    8.7   6.0  0.589    9  4   3.63    7.2   1.30
Hurst,B        SDP   11.0   8.3  0.568   12  6   3.40    9.7   1.20
Cone           NYM   10.7   8.3  0.562   13  5   3.21   10.8   1.10
Hill           MON    9.6   7.4  0.566   13  5   3.36   11.0   1.05
Portugal       HOU    6.1   3.9  0.611    5  3   2.80   10.8   1.01
Rijo           CIN    8.1   6.1  0.570    9  8   3.33   11.0   0.80
Smith,Z        PIT    8.6   6.7  0.562    8  7   3.45    6.9   0.97



Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Henry,B        HOU    5.9  10.2  0.366    3  8   4.91  -16.6  -1.98
Wilson,T       SFG    5.6   9.9  0.364    7 11   4.97  -17.6  -2.00
Young,A        NYM    2.8   6.3  0.307    1  7   5.79  -17.8  -1.69
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8  0.358    1 13   4.95  -10.5  -1.65
Gooden         NYM    5.4   8.6  0.386    6  9   4.42  -10.3  -1.57
Hershiser      LAD    6.8   9.9  0.406    8 10   4.73  -16.7  -1.63
Bowen          HOU    0.1   3.0  0.037    0  4  14.14  -16.8  -1.40
Blair          HOU    0.2   3.0  0.064    0  4  10.31  -13.8  -1.34
Ojeda          LAD    5.9   8.6  0.408    6  5   4.40   -9.4  -1.33
Cormier        STL    5.7   8.3  0.407    3  9   5.06  -12.7  -1.33



Luckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Glavine        ATL   11.6   7.0    17  3    9.4
Lefferts       SDP    7.1   8.8    12  7    6.7
Hill           MON    9.6   7.4    13  5    5.8
Cone           NYM   10.6   8.3    13  5    5.8
Burkett        SFG    7.4   9.0     9  6    4.6
Seminara       SDP    3.6   4.9     6  3    4.3
Ojeda          LAD    5.3   8.6     6  5    4.3
Black          SFG    6.5   6.3     9  5    3.8
Tomlin         PIT    8.4   7.9    11  7    3.5
Gardner        MON    7.5   8.0    11  8    3.5



Unluckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8     1 13   -8.5
Drabek         PIT   12.4   7.1     9  9   -5.3
Jackson,D      C/P    7.5   8.6     5 10   -3.9
Maddux         CHI   13.9   5.2    14  9   -3.7
Gross          LAD    6.0   8.4     5 11   -3.6
Whitehurst     NYM    1.7   2.2     0  4   -3.4
Cormier        STL    5.6   8.3     3  9   -3.3
Schourek       NYM    4.3   4.1     2  5   -3.2
Clark,M        STL    4.0   5.0     2  6   -3.0
Harnisch       HOU    7.4   9.4     4  9   -3.0



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL     49.5   32.7   0.602   48.3   54  26   3.21   3.02   8.39
CHI     44.3   33.1   0.573   42.2   40  38   3.48   3.22   5.27
PIT     43.4   36.8   0.541   41.4   37  36   3.56   3.60   3.13
MON     42.8   36.4   0.540   41.1   51  39   3.57   3.53   3.09
STL     40.5   38.9   0.510   39.6   30  39   3.92   3.85   0.68
CIN     39.1   37.8   0.508   37.7   41  37   3.91   3.77   0.44
NYM     39.8   39.9   0.499   38.4   35  42   3.74   3.95  -0.13
SDP     38.5   42.9   0.473   37.0   43  38   4.13   4.20  -2.18
SFG     36.5   42.7   0.461   35.2   35  40   4.26   4.43  -2.94
LAD     36.1   45.1   0.444   35.0   37  46   4.21   4.43  -4.62
PHI     35.2   46.3   0.432   34.0   31  44   4.62   4.48  -5.33
HOU     32.3   46.8   0.408   31.0   22  44   4.68   4.87  -7.05
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NL     478.0  479.3   0.499  460.9  456 469   3.93   3.93  -1.23


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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