From: djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson)
Subject: Re: RP/PA for AL and NL (More bogus RP stats)
Organization: University of Waterloo
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 1992 14:28:34 GMT

In article <3388@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:
>In article <Brp3LH.LEo@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.waterloo.edu (David Johnson) writes:
>>
>>If you are looking for a good denominator how about total team runs.  This
>>will show the players value to the team.  
>
>!?  What makes you say that?
>
>>You may want to factor in the
>>number of games played for the player by taking the games played divided
>>by 162 * teams runs scored.  Thus the players value to his team would be
>>
>>         Players value = RP/((GP/162)*teams runs scored)
>
>What does this tell you?  Check out the current RBI leader (whoever it is)
>on the California Angels, and compute this for him.  Now, check out Mark
>McGwire.  What have you learned?
>
>>This stat is better for comparing players on different teams than RP but
>>it still has some dependence on the players hitting around the player being 
>>evaluated.   
>
>No, it's *worse* than RP because now it depends on the whole lineup, rather
>than just the players around this player.
>
>>But since good hitters tend to be bunched around other good 
>           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>>hitters in the line up the good hitters will be evaluated equally with 
>>other good hitters and the poorer hitters will be evaluated equally with 
>>the other poorer hitters.
>
>Who are the "good hitters bunched around" Barry Bonds?  Are they really just
>like the hitters bunched around Gary Sheffield, for purposes of comparison?
>
>But let's get back to the original premise.  Why do you think that "% of team
>runs driven in" tells you anything useful about a player?  Two identical 
>players with identical stats in identical situations could still look very
>different using this measure--all it takes is for one of them to have the
>bottom of the Astros order in his lineup, and the other the bottom of the
>Tigers' order.  How is this an individual measure?  When the noise is larger
>than the signal, it's time to look elsewhere for measures.
>
This stat shows the players value to the team.  If Joe Carter played for
California he will not likely get as much of an opportunity to drive in
runs and will be driven in less as well but dividing it by the teams total
runs this factors in the whole teams inability to drive in runs.  Lets put
Carter on a lousy offensive team and he gets 90 RBI hits .280 30 HR and 
scores 50 runs.  Does this make him a worse player than if he had 105 RBI
and 65 runs scored with 30 HR and .280 average on a good hitting team.  Lets
say the first team scored 600 runs and the second team scored 750.

     Team #1 - RC = 110
               Players Value =  110/600 = 0.183
     Team #2 - RC = 140
               Players Value =  140/750 = 0.186

This shows that the players are closer to being equal which is what it should
be since one is on a bad team and one is on a good team.

About the good players being bunched together, most teams arrange their lineup
so they can get the most of the players abilities.  Less productive hitters
are at the bottom of the lineup, faster players with good on base percentage
are at the top of the order so the can be hit in by the power hitters in the
3-4-5 slots of the batting order.  This means that players are inserted into
the lineup where they can best use their abilities and isn't this what we
really want to compare players with.

>
>
>-- 
>   David Tate   | "When tomatoes last in the bullpen bloom'd,
> dtate@unix.cis |  And the great star early troop'd to the showers in the night
>    .pitt.edu   |  I mourned, and yet shall mourn with ever-returning spring."
>   IE, U. Pitt  | 	--Walt "Lefty" Whitman

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