From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 August
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 16 Aug 1992 06:52:02 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               15 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 228, 08/15/92
10.7 FLUX=130.5  90-AVG=125        SSN=122      BKI=2231 1023  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B3.6     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2241 2233  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=014,014,039,009,008,004,019,031   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 1735UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.2   @ 2103UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.1
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 2305UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0350UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0705UT     PCA-MIN= -1.0DB @ 2325UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55266NT @ 1339UT   BOUTF-MIN=55217NT @ 1712UT  BOUTF-AVG=55249NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+111NT@ 2102UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-015NT@ 0659UT  G7-AVG=+077,+043,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 2102UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 1245UT  G6-AVG=+088,+006,+030
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,125,120;SESC:125,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/010,015,030
    KFCST=3332 2222 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=004,008   27DAY-KP=1101 1221 2201 3332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity remained low over the last 24 hours.  Very little flare
activity was observed today.  The largest event was a class C1.1/SF event at
17:35 UT from Region 7262 (N17W31).  All of the other weak events remained
below C-class levels.

     Region 7260 (N16E28) is the largest spot group visible and has remained
relatively quiet over the last 24 hours.  Structurally, the group is stable
and is expected to remain fairly quiet barring new growth or flux emergence.
Perhaps most impressive is the size of the large leader spot, which is
approximately 500 millionths in size.  This is large enough to spot with the
protected naked eye.

     Region 7261 (S24W22) stabilized today and decayed slightly.

     New Region 7264 (N14E69) rotated into view today as a small C-type spot
group of little significance.

     Solar activity is expected to be low to very low.  Regions 7260 and 7262
are capable of producing C-class flare activity.  The potential for M-class
flares from Region 7260 has diminished.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the last 24 hours.  A
recurrent coronal hole may begin enhancing levels of activity on 17 and
particularly 18 August.  The last rotation of this feature produced strong
minor planetary storm activity, but may have been enhanced by other factors.
If the disturbance materializes, middle latitudes could see periods of minor
geomagnetic storming on 18 August.  High latitudes could see more frequent
minor storm periods on 18 August.  The disturbance should begin to wane on 19
or 20 August if it arrives on 17 or 18 August.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  No significant
changes are expected over the next 48 hours.  On 18 August, northerly middle
to polar latitude signal paths could become degraded with increased levels of
fading, signal absorption, and multipath effects.  This disturbance is not
expected to be as strong as the one that was observed on the last solar
rotation.  High and polar latitude paths should see fair propagation until 18
August, when conditions could become poor to very poor.  Middle latitudes
should retain good propagation until 18 August, when conditions could become
good to fair.  Low latitudes should see good propagation throughout the next
72 hours, with a possible slight enhancement in night and morning sector
signal instabilities on 18 August.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7256  S15W27  312  0030 HSX  02  003 ALPHA
7260  N16E29  256  0820 EKI  15  032 BETA
7261  S24W22  307  0030 CRO  07  014 BETA
7262  N17W31  316  0010 BXO  07  007 BETA
7263  N16W20  305  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7264  N14E69  216  0040 CSO  04  003 BETA
7259  S11W51  336                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 AUGUST TO 18 AUGUST
7247 N07   168


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1421 1421 1421                          110
 1543 1546 1549                          130
 2315 2315 2315                          130
 2341 2341 2341                          350


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   N25W03 N07W25 N10W26 N30W04  309  ISO   UKN   004 10830A
49   S32E34 S37E33 S22E14 S08E18  268  ISO   NEG   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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