From: "IAAYROS@MVS.oac.ucla.edu" <IAAYROS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU>
Subject:      Posibility of a practical bill to get positive response
Reply-To: "IAAYROS@MVS.oac.ucla.edu" <IAAYROS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU>
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 12:23:00 GMT
Comments: To: china-nt <china-nt@UGA.CC.UGA.EDU>

> Date:    Sun, 8 Nov 1992 09:35:38 -0500
> Sender:  "China-Net (The Coordination Network for IFCSS)"
> From:    "(Xiaowen Li)" <lix@CRSA.BU.EDU>
> Subject: Re: Let's do some homework before next CMFN appeares in US congress
>
> Basically I agree on the subject line.
>
> Kevin gave a very good example of mis-calculating others bottom line.
> Khroschoff thought USA would not take the risk of a nuclear war and would
> swallow his missle base in Cuba, this resulted in his face-losing and
> finally out-from-power. This should have been the least dissactrous
> result humanbeing can obtain from such a miscalculation.
>
> Other examples include Hitler's miscalculation about British' response
> for his invasion to Poland (well, he did right in early cases). McArthur's
> miscaluclation on China's response to his too-far march.

     Though the analogies between the pro-CMFN faction of CSS and
Hitler/Khroschoff are not very good, I agree that a thoughtful estimation
is one of the key issues of current debate about a likely CMFN bill next
spring in the US Congress.

     Definitely there is risk that CG will not swallow a CMFN containing
too harsh conditions and, most importantly, threatening their power. After
all, those who ordered the PLA's tanks and machine guns to the TAM are still
in or around the CG, though some are out of the new power core and some
are terminally ill.

     But I still support the approach of IFCSS lobbying a CMFN bill to
press CG to improve HR situation in China, at least the situation for
the dissident prisoners such as Ren Wangting, Liu Gang, Xiao Bin...
The reason is that I believe there is quite posibility that a pratical
bill can be worked out and the other party will response to it positively.
In other words, the risk level of US cutting off China's complete MFN
previlege is very low while the benifit for the people suffered by
current HR situation is very substantial.

     After the latest CCP's national congress, a series of analytical
articles published on several Hong Kong-based pro-democracy magzines.  All
the authors are chinese, not American "advisors".  Most of them shuttled
between Bejing and Hong Kong year-round and even got detained when
stealing top CCP secrets such as Mr. Jiang's political report.  The basic
predition of these articles are that the new leader group has less
hardline color and more eager to push further forward a market-oriented
economy reform while still unwilling to make substantial progress in human
right area (but some relaxing on film and literature signaled).

     After the US 92 election, the Democratic party dominated US congress is
no longer facing a Republic president.  So, the legislation of next CMFN
bill wll have much less partisan emotion involved.  Hopefully a set of
pratical and not too harsh condition could be worked out to ensure the
face of Li Peng's government while making him gave in somewhere in the HR
area.  The role of Congresswomen Pelosi played in the new President's camp
will give IFCSS a very good channel to start with.  I thank John's posting
on this info and think this is an evidence that we should not rejuct
advices from sources other than us CSS.

     In the latest CND news, Paul Cheung, president of the Hong Kong General
Chamber of Commerce, said the following about what they are going to do:

  "I think we need to mount an all-out lobbying effort, not only in
  Washington, but talk to Beijing to get the Chinese leadership to
  understand more how the U.S. political system works," Chueng said.  "This
  time it's for real.  (China) no longer will have President Bush backing
  them on non-conditional renewal (of MFN)."

So, we will have a big, and influential, team of "alliance" from HK business
circle working from a quite differnt front to help improve HR situation in
China. But this could happen ONLY when a "real" CMFN is seen at the horison.

Kevin
Newsgroups: talk.politics.china