From: naga@jtown.Eng.Sun.COM (Ashok Nagarajan)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.indian
Subject: Re: BJP
Date: 21 Jan 1993 21:10:40 GMT
Organization: Sun Microsystems Inc., Mountain View, CA
NNTP-Posting-Host: jtown
Summary: ssss

In article <PICARDO.93Jan21120911@cthulhu.ces.cwru.edu>, picardo@cthulhu.ces.cwru.edu (Leslie Picardo) writes:
> 
> 
> In article naga@jtown.Eng.Sun.COM (Ashok Nagarajan) offers us this
> insightful political commentary:
> 
>  > With a new US govt in place whose main objective is to prevent the
>  > spread of Islamic fundamentalism following the collapse of the cold war ....
> 
>       The main US foreign policy objectives in the Middle East are
>       to ensure the flow of oil into the world market and to maintain low
>       oil prices which is critical to the economies of the west.
> 
>      ( BTW the current media cliches are - 
>      "the collapse of the soviet union" / "the end of the cold war". )



     Thanks for pointing it out. I can't help feeling a whole lot "educated" now.
     I "appreciate" it very much.


>       
> 
>  > recogize the fact that Israel is an important ally in that area. Stop 
>  > worrying about how other muslim nations would feel about this when they 
>  > don't really give a hoot to India.
> 
>      1] There are a few million Indians who have jobs in the Middle
>         East (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Iraq). These jobs
>         range from 
>         a) unskilled labor - nannies, sanitation workers, security guards etc 
>         b) skilled   labor - welders, fitters, electricians,construction crew, 
>                              plant operators, hotel managers etc
>         c) technical labor - mechanical, civil, process engineers, medical 
>                              personnel, accountants, bank employees. 
>         Most of the people in categories a) and b) would be unemployed in 
>         India due to the scarcity of jobs. The salaries that are sent home by 
>         these people are a  valuable source of foreign exchange to India.
>         The economies of states like Kerela have benefitted from Indians 
>         who have returned and continue to return from these countries.
>           
>         And Indians are not the only ones who compete for these jobs.



       Egypt's ties with Israel hasn't prevented it from being in the labour pool
       of these countries. Why do you think there might be a different set of rules
       in the case of India? Also, we have a major problem if a India's foreign
       policy should be dictated by these empty threats.



>    
>       2] Indian construction companies like Walchandnagar, L&T compete for 
>          contracts in the Gulf region worth crores of rupees. There
>          are lucrative contracts to be made in the oil and chemical process 
>          industry. There is trade in food, textiles, jewellery which 
>          contributes to the Indian economy. 
> 
>          And Indian companies face competition from the Koreans, U.S, Britian,
>          France, Germany ..... 



          All these countries have good relations with Israel too. That hasn't 
        prevented them from doing business in the gulf.

       Moreover, these gulf countries represent a miniscule population of less
       than 20 million. If Indian companies are dependent on such a tiny population
       to get their business going, there is no hope for these companies. So much
       for the Indian companies to go global.  

>          
>       3] Oil imports remain a significant drain on the Indian foreign 
>          exchange reserves. Any jump in oil prices will seriously affect 
>          the Indian economy (as happened during the Gulf war). 
>          Oil is important for our fertilizer, plastic, textile and 
>          transport industry.
> 
>          And Israel has no oil.

     The price increase during the gulf war was due to both Kuwait and Iraq not
     selling any oil. 

       There has been an oil glut for the last ten years or so. OPEC's power
    is crumbling and they have only themselves to be blamed for it. Sure, they
   wielded a lot more power during the seventies and were able to control the
   growth of the world economy. Not anymore. US, Japan, etc have learnt to make 
   efficient use of oil. The consumption of oil is about the same in the US as it
   was 20 years back just as the production of oil has gone up in the gulf. This slack
   has been sold to countries like India where demand is going up.

    
   The former Soviet Union are getting into the oil business in a big way with a lot of help 
    from the western oil companies. Look out for more oil glut and declining influence
   of the OPEC. OPEC seem to have a hard time trying to enforce discipline within its
   own ranks even right now. Watch out for more problems to OPEC in the next few years once
   the former Soviet Union countries start pumping more oil. A few OPEC members are
   already dropping out it.
   
    
     The price increase during the gulf war was due to both Kuwait and Iraq not
     selling any oil. Since India was getting most of its oil from Iraq, hence 
     the price increase. India should move from too much dependence on these
     gulf countries for its oil by finding alternate sources ( former Soviet Union,
     NIgeria, Venezuela, Mexico, etc and more local drilling).

> 
> 
>       Any Indian leadership which can lay claim to understanding 
>       "the pulse of the nation" should be aware of these stark 
>       economic realities. One hopes that religious ideology does 
>       not become an obstacle to economic prosperity. 
>       "Kicking butt" makes no sense when it is your own butt 
>       that you are kicking.

     I can't agree with you on this anymore. But by the same token, I definitely
     don't want India be held ransom by these tiny countires either. Sure, in the short
     run we might have to face some obstacles if we deviated from
     our present policy of "kicked around" by these countries. I have a hard time 
     believing that India's prosperity is tied to "serving" such a tiny population
     of 20 million. If that is so, we have a major problem. Also, these gulf countries 
     find the Indians suitable for their "slave driving" mentality that serve their purpose. 
     Where else can they find better "slaves" other than in the Indian sub-continent?
     There was so much talk in Kuwait following the gulf war that they were going to kick 
     out all Indians for India's nuetrality during the war. I am yet to see that happen.


     I find it hard as to why BJP's ideology should be stressed and not some of its
     pragmatic economic and defence policies. Rao's economic liberalization program was
     possible partly due to BJP's support. So much for the liberal economic policy 
     now that he has gone back to appeasing the communists and one can forget about 
     economic prosperity. It appears that you prefer India to continue on this path 
     of doom and be essentially dictated by these gulf countries and continue to be weak
     so that it can  be taken over by them one fine morning. 

      
> 
> 
>  > Finally, which Indian party do you think is capable of making all 
>  > this a reality?. You guessed it right.
>  >			      IT'S BJP
>  
> 
>    
>  
> 
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> Leslie Picardo
> 
> The difference between philosophy and religion: If you have an argument
> over philosophy, you get red in the face. Over theology you throw bombs.
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------