From: news@cc.swarthmore.edu (USENET News System)
Subject: YUGOWAR: WHAT IS GOING ON?
Originator: vuksan@ginger
Organization: Swarthmore College
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 01:25:53 GMT

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The following text has been written by:
Ivo Skoric, 103 St Marks pl, New York, NY 10009, USA
telephone:(212) 995-5601 e-mail: iskoric@igc.apc.org
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@1 YUGOWAR: WHAT IS GOING ON?
 
Anybody remembers summer 1991? It was then that combat air force
was used against civilian population first time in Europe since the
end of the WW II. The western press described that as a skirmish.
The skirmish happened just a day after U.S. State Secretary James
Baker (the 3rd) gave the green light to Yugoslav federal army to
"protect Yugoslav constitution." In a year and a half "The
Skirmish" developed in the bloodiest war in modern history.
 
However, although the ugly bunch of European and American
diplomatic sleaze constantly complains that "nothing could be done,
nothing can be done (and nothing shall be done)", this war could
be stopped hundred times already. Unfortunately, as this war
develops as a malignant cancer, it is more difficult to do
something now as the war progressed to later stages.
Still, the development is a predictable one, and with a certain
death at the end if we leave it as it is.
 
This war has four stages. First two we already saw, third is in
playing now, and fourth is to be frightened of in the nearest
future. First stage was Slovenia, second stage was parts of
Croatia, third stage is Bosnia and Herzegovina, and fourth (final)
stage is a region that includes parts of south-west Serbia, north
Montenegro, Kosovo province, Macedonia and other interested parties
(eventually Albania, and less likely Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria).
As the war progresses from stage to stage it consumes more
territory, more force and kills more people. Also, it becomes more
complex.
 
FIRST STAGE
In Slovenia for example, we had the clearest possible situation:
on one side there was lightly armed Slovenian Territorial Defense
fighting for secession of Slovenia from Yugoslavia; on the other
side was heavily armed 4th largest European military force - the
Yugoslav Army, trying to prevent Slovenia from secession. It was
very clear who is a good guy and who is not, and bad guys just
left. World powers played a lip service to the "skirmish", and
eventually convinced Yugoslav Army to go doing dirty job somewhere
else where the conflict would involve more players and, therefore,
be easier to railroad through diplomacy as too obscure to deal
with.
 
SECOND STAGE
In Croatia there was a third player involved: ethnic Serbs. They
wanted to secede from Croatia if Croatia secedes from Yugoslavia.
So, Croatian forces fighting for independence appeared to be both
the victims and the victimizers. The west was purring. Suddenly the
rebels with kalashnikovs were presented on the same terms as the
totalitarian military regime that held the country in an iron grip
for more than 40 years. We were terrorized by history and by who-
has-a-right-to-what - while a very real contemporary horror
happened un-noticed by "free" western press. It was very convenient
to present the situation as confusing as possible in the western
media. Doing nothing became a virtue. British and French are
historically known how easy they dispose of some other country's
territory. Hitler just cried how Germans are endangered in the
Czechoslovakian Sudet region, and British and French just signed
that he had a right to occupy the region. Themselves imperialists,
they always admired imperialist-upstarts like Hitler or Milosevic.
 
THIRD STAGE
In Bosnia there was a fourth player involved: muslim Slavs. The
west cunningly destroyed the truth that the most of Bosnian Croats,
Serbs and muslim Slavs want to live together in a multi-ethnic
multi-cultural Bosnian state. Purposefully, British and American
peace-makers (Carrington and Vance, both with hands till shoulders
in American military-industrial complex that is well connected to
the Yugoslav Army) gave the equal political significance to the
nationalist Croats who wanted to secede from Bosnia backed by
Croatian Army and to the nationalist Serbs who wanted to secede
from Bosnia backed by Yugoslav Army and to the Bosnian legitimate
government. Bosnian legitimate government, although it comprises
Serbs, Croats and muslim Slavs, was for the occasion, also on
purpose, reduced to a representative of muslim Slavs. The televised
picture of unspeakable horrors in Bosnia was therefore successfully
obscured by an unresolvable tri-lateral conflict situation story.
Again, conveniently for the do-nothing West. We got the picture
that muslim Slavs wanted to establish a muslim fundamentalist state
in Bosnia backed by Iran's mujahedeen, and that Serbs and Croats
naturally wanted to secede. On the other hand we witnessed Croats
and muslim Slavs together fighting Serbs, but, also, Croats
fighting muslim Slavs, and Serbs fighting muslim Slavs. Although,
muslim Slavs were clearly recognized as a victims, it was widely
understood that their victimization is partially their guilt, too.
So, this time the West did not only assume the do-nothing position
just observing the slaughter of innocent people, as they did in
Croatia, but they consciously scape-goated muslim Slavs and
destroyed Bosnia. This is also nothing new for American, British
and French foreign policy. They refused to believe that Hitler is
prosecuting jews till the later time in the WW II. At a lot of
occasions they made it clear that jews might be as well guilty
themselves for what Germans were doing to him. As late as 1938. the
U.S. Coast Guard returned the ship full of jewish refugees back to
Germany.
 
FOURTH STAGE
When the war exhaust itself in Bosnia, as it did in Croatia and
Slovenia, it will assume even larger territory and last for longer
period of time in the South of former Yugoslavia. It is to be
expected that a fair amount of Serbian units in Bosnia will move
to muslim populated areas of Serbia (Sandzak) and Montenegro
(around Plevlja the war already almost broke out a month ago).
There is just a question of time when the 'ethnic cleansers' will
realize that while they are cleansing Bosnia from muslims, their
mainland Serbia is home of about 2.5 million muslims - the same
amount as in Bosnia before the war. The war will move closer to
Kosovo, and Kosovo is a box of TNT. It needs just a spark to
finally explode. The war on Kosovo will inevitably drive hundreds
of thousands Albanian refugees from Kosovo to Macedonia. Macedonia
is currently governed by unusually young and smart government which
stability is all but uncertain. There is a big (one third?)
Albanian minority in Macedonia, and a big popular resentment
towards them among Macedonians. The largest parliamentarian party
is very nationalist and might take over the government using the
popular unrest caused by the flood of Albanian refugees. We will
observe a unique situation in history of warfare: enemy of our
enemy is not necessarily our friend. So, Macedonians, although in
near-war with Serbs, will fight Albanians who flee Serbian ethnic
cleansing. They will definitely return able-bodied male Albanians
back to Kosova, as Croatian government today returns able-bodied
male muslim Slavs back to Bosnia. If Albania enters the war, it
will be against the weaker of two enemies - Macedonians. Greece
will help Serbia to squeeze Albanians from Kosovo to Macedonia, so
to weaken Macedonia. Bulgaria will help Macedonia to fight
Albanians and protect themselves of Serbs. Turkey will stand behind
Albanians and muslim Slavs, but against Serbs and Macedonians. The
war will be far more bloodier than the war in Bosnia. I expect
Yugoslav Army to show all its might in this "mother of all wars".
Milosevic will eventually present this war as a defensive war,
because it will happen partially on Serbian territory. Yugoslav
Army may draft all Serbian conscripts to fight.

Newsgroups: soc.culture.yugoslavia