From: jaskew@spam.maths.adelaide.edu.au (Joseph Askew)
Subject: Re: Expansionist China
Followup-To: sci.military
Summary: China is no real threat
Organization: Statistics, Pure & Applied Mathematics, University of Adelaide
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1992 14:37:11 GMT


From jaskew@spam.maths.adelaide.edu.au (Joseph Askew)


In article <BuDFCG.G8K@lawday.DaytonOH.NCR.COM> spencer@swanee.ee.uwa.oz.au (Greg Spencer) writes:
>
>From spencer@swanee.ee.uwa.oz.au (Greg Spencer)
>
>Reading the local papers here in Australia I am getting the feeling that
>the region is becomming more and more unstable. Tiawan has just bought a
>how pile of F-16`s china is buying heaps of Russian military equipment
>including fighters aircraft carriers etc etc.  Also the is a land dispute
>over some small island between china Taiwan and Indinesia.  China has
>allready stationed troops on them and claiming ownership and the dispute
>could quite easily esculate!

Just for the record the dispute is over the Spratly islands which are claimed
as a whole or in part by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philipines and
Brunei. As far as I know Indonesia has no claim at the moment but it wouldn't
if I am just unaware of it. As to the Islands themselves 'island' is a bit of
a joke, they are coral reefs and sand bars that have no useful purpose at all
except for the *possibility* that oil lies under them. China has recently
signed a deal with a US company to drill exploratory wells in the region.
China has some soldiers on the islands as does Malaysia and the Philipines.
The islands are so small though that the Chinese are having to bring in sand
and concrete to build up the islands so that they can put a platoon or two on
them. Vietnam and China fought a very brief war once with the Vietnamese 'navy'
getting blown out of the water. They are not likely to try again at the moment.

>The problem is that if it did, it would
>involve just about all the counties in this region leaving Australia just
>south of a major War zone.

There will not be a major war in this region. The fun thing about naval wars
is that they are over pretty darn quick. The Chinese navy would easily outclass
anything anyone except Taiwan could put into the water - battle over in a week.
The technological difference between a Second rate Naval power and a Third rate
one is just huge nowadays and there would be no chance to put up much of a
fight.

>The question is, if this did happen would
>china stop at indinesia or would they want to visit the almost completly
>undefened Australia.  And if so, what would the U.S. of A do about it?

The Chinese do not have the military land ability to invade Vietnam as they
found to their cost in 1979. The Vietnamese army has probably been worn out
a bit by the lack of Soviet replacement parts but it is unrealistic to expect
the PLA to fight all the way through Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia to
reach Indonesia especially when Indonesia is not involved in any way. Nor
would the US be happy about the defeat of several of its major allies and
besides the golden rule of Chinese Military history has always been never
invade Vietnam. It is sort of like invading Russia, every time its been tried
they have been beaten and bitterly regreted it. And don't forget the trouble
the US had in Vietnam and the British in Malaysia, you think the Chinese could
cope better?

>We have allready seen that relations between us and the US can be strained
>just because it's election time in the states - would they be willing
>to defened an alied country like Australia whose only real asset is a
>bunch of realy freindly people, during an election?

Hey we are this huge airbase and communication centre. The US still needs
some friends in the region.

The only conflict the Chinese are likely to get involved in is with Taiwan.
Especially if the Taiwanese vote for independence some time in the near future.
The Chinese in Beijing and Taipei have made threatening noises about this and
the Mainland may deliever on this threat if pressed.

Of course there is the on going dispute with Russia. The amount of land the
Chinese claim from them is about equal in size to two thirds of China and
with the collapse of the Government there they maybe tempted to do a little
border readjusting. It isn't a Communist scheme either, go over and read
talk.politics.chinese and ask them what they think about the USSR and the
lands that have been taken. It would be *very* popular (if they won)


Joseph Askew
jaskew@spam.maths,adelaide.edu.au


Newsgroups: sci.military