From: thietaniemi@cc.helsinki.fi
Newsgroups: soc.culture.soviet,talk.politics.soviet
Subject: UPCOMING ESTONIAN ELECTIONS
Date: 7 Sep 92 19:22:57 GMT
Organization: University of Helsinki


UPCOMING ESTONIAN ELECTIONS


Against ignorance, for the Estonian democracy:
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SOME ELEMENTARY DATA ABOUT UPCOMING ESTONIAN ELECTIONS
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THE BASICS
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- The first presidential and parliamentary elections in Estonia
will take place 20-09-1992 according to the new constitution
approved in the referendum by the Estonian citizens in the end
of June.

- Only the citizens of the Estonian republic are entitled to
participate in the elections. Only 5000 non-citizens applied
for the citizenship. However, they are not yet declared as
citizens and on account of that, they can't vote in these first
elections. Only a tiny part of the Russian-speaking population,
mainly the descendandts of former citizens of the republic of
Estonia (1918-1940), are allowed to cast their votes in these
elections.

- There are 101 seats in the Estonian parliament (Riigikogu).

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RIGHT, CENTER, LEFT?
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First, the political parties in Estonia can be divided into
three groups: I use traditional grouping right-centrist-left.
Still, the grouping employed here differs in some respects from
the grouping adapted by, say, the Europarliament.

"Left" refers here to all kinds of post-communist groupings and
movements, partly to the nomenclatura and managers, a category
that is lacking any parallel in other northern European states.

The right-wing parties represent more or less the conservative
views adopted by the European conservative parties.

Estonian "centrists" resemble most of the "leftists" in nothern
European countries: all kinds of social-democratic and social-
liberal parties belong to this group.

The most important parties running are:
(The characterizations inside quotation marks are my own and,
thus, very subjective.)

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The right wing parties:
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THE FATHERLAND UNION (Isamaa)
"The Concervatives, CDU"

ESTONIAN NATIONAL INDEPENDENCY PARTY (ERSP)
"ERSP represents the most radical right wing in Estonia and co-
operates with the Congress of Estonia, the most radical part of
which, named "The Restitution" demanded the approval of the old
Estonian constitution (from the thirties) and thus were the only
group that set itself against the new constitution. (If there
are some people, that tend to "stop the clock" in Estonia, they
could be most easily be found in the ranks of this party.)"

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The centrist parties:
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PEOPLE'S FRONT (Rahvarinne)
"The former "People's front" was the main initiator of the
peaceful national resurrection, "the singing revolution" in
1988. But as the most national fronts have done, also this
movement has split into various directions. The most signifizant
party remaining under the banner of People's front is Edgar
Savisaar's (the former prime minister) People's centrist party,
that could be labelled social-liberal. Savisaar stresses the
necessity of reconciliation with the Russian-speaking
population, pleads for some kind of special economic status for
the Narva region and for extending the voting rights to the non-
citizens. Savisaar's party is claimed to be the only party with
some trust from the side of the Russian-speaking population."

The MODERATES (Moodukad)
"They consist of the Social-liberal and the Social democratic
Party (which is participating the Socialist International). The
differences between the moderates and peoplesfrontists are more
of personal nature, with the exception that the moderates 
stress less poignantly the theme of reconcialiation of
nationalities."

The ROYALISTS (Kuninkriiglased)
"The only royalists in deeply republican Estonia, mainly
populists, partly jokers. A spin-off of the People's front: if
the party manages to gain some seats, it is supposed to back the
centrists."

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The left wing:
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SECURE HOME (Kindel kodu)
"Post-communist managers, devoid of any ideology. They prefer to
call themselves "economic specialists" and claim to represent
to continuity and know-how. They are for "moderate" and "social"
economic reform."

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Some other observations:
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- There are also other petite parties running, but they are not
assumed to obtain 5 percent of ballot required.
- A minor "communist party" still exists, but it consists of
some diehards who do not have a chance to acquire even 1 per
cent of votes, as it is widely supposed.
- No party of any significance could be labelled "fascist" or
"extreme right" if we make use of typical European criteria.
- Since the bulk of Russian-speaking population is not allowed
to vote, there will be no support for Inter-movement, either.


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SOME POLL FIGURES ABOUT THE PARTIES SUPPORT FROM THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS:
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                    03.09       04.09       06.09(prediction*)

FATHERLAND               25          18       20-22
ERSP                    5-7           9          10
PEOPLE'S FRONT           15          14       22-25
MODERATES               5-7           7          13
ROYALISTS               5-7           ?           ?
SECURE HOME             5-7           9          10

(*a prediction made by social historian Rein Ruutsoo from the
Estonian Academy of Science, Tallin - of course a subjective
one!)
Note that there is still a great number of undecided voters and
a great amount of smaller parties, whose votes will be "lost"
(like The Greens).


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SOME OUTSTANDING ESTONIAN POLITICIANS (PRIME MINISTER
CANDIDATES)
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FATHERLAND        Mart Laar, Paul-Erik Rummo
ERSP              Tunne Kelam
PEOPLE'S FRONT    Edgar Savisaar, Rein Veidemann
MODERATES         Marju Lauristin
SECURE HOME       Vaino Va"ljas



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THE MOST LIKELY CABINET COALITIONS:
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It is very probable, that no one of the above mentioned
groupings (right/center/left) can obtain an absolute majority in
the parliament.

Thefore the most likely outcome will be a coalition government:
most likely the right wing (with less than 40 per cent of the
ballot) with some other parties, perhaps the moderates, since
the right wing is very reluctant to form a coalition government
with Edgar Savisaar.

Savisaar could form the government with centrists and -
perhaps - with the left - if the Estonians form a cabinet that
is backed by a majority in parliament.

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THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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According to the Estonian constitution, the presidential powers
are limited. To put a long story short, the Estonians will be
electing a president more like  "a Havel" than "a Mitterrand".

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THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
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FATHERLAND         LENNART MERI (The former foreign minister of
Estonia, the contemporary Estonian ambassador in Helsinki)

ERSP               LAGLE PAREK (I would call HER a full-time
dissident, lacks wide popular support)

PEOPLE'S FRONT     REIN TAAGEPERA (Professor of history in
California, the deacon of the faculty of social sciences in the
university of Tartu)

MODERATES          none

ROYALISTS          none

SECURE HOME        ARNOLD RU"U"TEL (The acting president of the
republic since 1982, initially nominated to his post by
Andropov. Still, Ru"u"tel has a good reputation and enjoys a
wide popular personal support.)

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SOME POLL FIGURES FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM PREVIOUS
WEEKS (Percentages)
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          26.08.          04.09.

MERI         31              29
PAREK         6               ?
TAAGEPERA    12               ?
RU"U"TEL     43              30


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THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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According to the constitution, the president of Estonia will be
elected by the members of parliament. However, in these first
elections the people may also vote for the presidential
candidates.

If no one of the candidates has aqcuired at least 50 per cent of
the ballot, the parliament may decide between two most supported
candidates.

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THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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The only candidate that might get more than a half of votes in
the first round is Ru"u"tel.

If that is not the case, the parliament will without doubt elect
his opponent.

The most propable president is Lennart Meri (if he can get away
with the gossip concerning his father's alleged past as KGB-
agent). If not, it's a tie between Parek and Taagepera (who
didn't initially plan to get elected, but hold a campaign
against Ru"u"tel, which he has called "Andropov's candidate").

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Please correct my data when necessary!
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the observer:

Tapani Hietaniemi, University of Helsinki
Newsgroups: soc.culture.soviet