From: bill.dehaan@canrem.com (bill dehaan)
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Subject: nt, an assessment
Date: 22 Jul 92 02:42:50 GMT
Reply-To: "bill dehaan" <bill.dehaan@canrem.com>
Distribution: comp
Organization: Canada Remote Systems

In article <mumble>, Stephen Dawson writes:

SD>The impact that Windows/NT will have in the market place does not
SD>seem to have been properly analysed.

Overanalysed? Yes. Properly analysed? No.

SD>As I write this, I am sure that OS/2 2.0 sales have passed the 1
SD>million mark and show no signs of slowing down. What are the chances
SD>that Windows/NT will sell 1 million copies?

Pretty damn good, from what I can see. I have already seen 50,000 orders
already being allocated in one company I do work for.

SD>Can we expect at least 1 in 10 Windows users to move to NT? Will

The  average  user?  No.  Development/MIS/"power"  user? Probably. NT is
targeting  the  same   type  of  user   that  OS/2  is:   same  hardware
requirements,  same  functions  (mostly).  If  you  can run OS/2 on your
machine, you can run Windows/NT, and vice versa.

SD>Microsoft offer an upgrade price of less than $100? I doubt it, and

I expect that they will. They  will probably also have OS/2 and  Windows
3.1 upgrade offers galore. They did  it with 3.0, they did it  with 3.1,
why wouldn't they do it with NT? Sure, they will up the price later, but
coming out of the starting blocks, expect to see it pretty cheap.

SD>that means very few will upgrade, since those still using Windows in
SD>1993 will be fairly happy with it, and will be more likely to wait
SD>for Windows 4.0.

Possibly. Depends upon what 4.0 is, and when it comes out.

SD>Where will new users come from? There are three sources. Existing
SD>users of SQL Server on OS/2 1.3 seem to be almost a sure thing,
SD>unless Sybase releases their product for OS/2 2.0. In that case many
SD>will stay with OS/2. If SQL Server is only available on NT, then all
SD>10,000 users can be expected to move to NT quickly.

I'll take this as a given.

SD>Another source may be users coming from the UNIX platform. Already
SD>some have switched to OS/2. I suspect this is an application
SD>dependent question, and here is where NT is at a disadvantage. Users

I expect that it is application  founded as well. But you think  that NT
has a DISadvantage? OEMs are tripping over themselves to be "NT  ready";
MS has been speaking with companies about drivers a YEAR before the ship
date (as opposed to IBM's almost  casual response a month AFTER ship  to
see if anyone wanted drivers),  and companies like Borland have  already
reached alpha and even beta level with development products.

SD>will move from UNIX to OS/2 because the OS costs $100, instead of
SD>$1,000. There is plenty of time for apps to move, and well written
SD>UNIX code should move to OS/2 quite easily. NT seems to be priced at

I agree.

SD>$400-500 and will offer a much smaller incentive to UNIX users. This
SD>will be samll change.

Eh. I'd take this on a case by case basis.

SD>The third source will be downsizers. For those moving from the mini
SD>NT seems a good product to evaluate. Those in DEC shops will give NT
SD>a hard look because of the Alpha platform, and the likelihood of DEC
SD>financial trouble continuing. (Aside: Olsen is gone, and DEC's loss
SD>for 1991-92 will exceed $1 billion when announced next week.)

I didn't know how  much DEC was hurting;  that sounds like a  lot. But I
expect every MIS shop in the country will evaluate NT; and unlike  OS/2,
which has a  reputation as a  fiasco since 1987,  the name "Windows"  is
golden to the consumer. Hell, NT has almost NOTHING to do with  Windows,
but MS isn't stupid enough to throw away the golden goose, here.

SD>How many units do we have? Perhaps 100,000.

I'd say a LOT higher. I  know about 75 contractors in the  Toronto area.
Even though OS/2 is available (here,  now, today), I'd say only five  of
us use it  or are interested  in it. About  50 are waiting  for NT (many
went  down  to  SF  last  week  for  the NT seminar), and the others are
sitting  on  the  fence.  A  small  sampling,  to be sure, but still, it
indicates that the undercurrent of interest in NT is very strong.

The other groups you've  ignored are those people  who will be doing  NT
work  because  of  the  features  OS/2  lacks: security, Posix, etc. And
anybody currently doing Windows development will take a look at NT;  how
many more is that? More than a few.

SD>Microsoft has a problem in positioning NT. No longer is anyone
SD>seriously comparing Windows 3.1 to OS/2 2.0. The expensive marketing
SD>that Microsoft staged at the recent NT show indicates their degree
SD>of concern.

It shows their COMMITMENT. Microsoft  is taking NT very seriously.  They
are  being  more  open  with  NT  material  now  than  IBM  is with OS/2
information ("June CSD?").  No argument that  OS/2 has lit  a fire under
their butt, but I wouldn't exactly call them running scared.

SD>But NT was supposed to be the super server. Can MS convince the
SD>market to downsize NT, without destroying the Windows market? It is
SD>a high stakes game they are playing.

Yes, it is. And they've got a lot of experience playing it.

SD>NT will not be ready on time. It is far to complex, and the problems
SD>are starting to be reported in the media. According to Spencer in PC
SD>Week the NT API is missing a volume control for sound. Hmmmmm....

And OS/2 is  missing the capability  to back itself  up. Keep things  in
perspective.

SD>Further MS seems to be backing off full 32 support for Windows. But,
SD>as Charles Petzold demonstrated convincingly in a recent article in
SD>MSJ, 32 bit code is essential for good performance.

NT will be 32 bit windows. What you're thinking of is NT programs  being
able to  run on  Win32s, which  they seem  to have  dropped. And  as for
performance, even the NT alpha  we have, with debugging code  galore, is
still snappier than OS/2's sluggish response.

SD>It is my view that Gates is going to pull a "Ken Olsen" with
SD>Windows/NT.

Doubt it, but we'll see.

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Deus Ex Machina                   | Internet:   bill.dehaan@rose.com
Software Consulting and Gator Pit | I'm a brain in a vat. What about you?
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