From: trh@jack.sns.com (Al Trh)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.turkish
Subject: 1993... TURKISH YEAR? (Le Figaro, 2 Jan 93, H. C. D'ENCAUSSE) (fwd)
Date: 26 Jan 1993 08:39:13 -0600
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 1993... TURKISH YEAR?

 - Helene Carrera D'ENCAUSSE

 Might  the   disappearence  of  communism  give   way  to  bloody
 conflicts?  From  the Caucasus  to  the  Romanian border  and  in
 particular in ex-Yugoslavia, it  seems that the disintegration of
 Soviet power  has created  an international vacuum  and disrupted
 harmony between  states and  nations which threatens  human lives
 and peace which has been maintained in Europe since 1945.

 But new  year brings not only  a world in decomposition.  The new
 actors and the poles of  international organisation have now said
 they  can play  a decisive  role in  the present  border. Turkey,
 Central Asia and Black Sea deserve special attention in ragard to
 recent involvement and future plans.

 For centuries the Ottoman and  Russian empires, two great powers,
 were in opposition for influence  and control in Central Asia and
 the Black Sea region. Today Russia has only a part of its empire,
 almost cut off  from the Black Sea because  the Crimea, conquered
 by  Catherine II,  was given  to  Ukraine in  1954, Russia  finds
 itself  once more  facing Turkey.  This is  no longer  the former
 powerful Ottoman  Empire; it is  a country in  rapid development,
 making political progress towards democracy and in the economy.

 Barrier against Iran

 For years Turkey has dreamed of  entering the EC which opened its
 doors to Greece, another great  rival. Slighted by Europe, Turkey
 is on the  way to becoming a great regional  power developing her
 influence in Central Asia and the Black Sea.

 The ex-Soviet Central Asian states, most of whose inhabitants are
 Turkish-speaking and Sunni, turned towards  Turkey as soon as the
 USSR broke  up. Responsible  Turks did not  care to  remember how
 their  country was  coveted by  the Central  Asian states  at the
 begining of the century: with the Young Turk Movement, then after
 1918 with  the western-looking  Mustafa Kemal,  Turkey symbolised
 the possibility  of modernity  and national independence  for all
 Islamic countries. At  the dawn of 1993 Turkey is  regarded as by
 all the  Central Asian states,  with the exception  of Kazakhstan
 which is more  reserved in its views, as a  model brother country
 which could bar Iranian attempts to expand.

 Turkish  influence  in Central  Asia  is,  to a  certain  extent,
 encouraged by the USA as a barrier to Iranian expansion.

 No  doubt Turkey  has considered  the  cost of  her influence  in
 Central  Asia.  Development  of   the  region  requires  enormous
 investments, and because of political instability and many ethnic
 and boundary disputes, the legacy of the Soviet system, gives for
 the  time being  only contingent  help. But  careful, as  she is,
 Turkey shows  nevertheless that she  has a  role to play,  a role
 which  Russia,   also  worried  by  Iranian   designs,  does  not
 discourage.

 At present it is the Black Sea which is at the centre of Ankara's
 efforts to influence  tomorrow's world. In December  1990, a year
 before  the  end of  the  Soviet  Empire,  a Black  Sea  Economic
 Cooperation  zone was  founded  in Ankara  on  the initiative  of
 Turkey. On  10 December 1992,  a year  after the collapse  of the
 Soviet  Empire, a  conference  of foreign  ministers  of the  new
 states was  held in Antalya. It  went unnoticed by the  world but
 the perspectives were set out there.

 First,  it   gave  reality  to  a   geopolotical  group  formerly
 non-existent; states bordering the Black Sea - Bulgaria, Georgia,
 Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine and those countries -Albania,
 Armenia,  Azerbaijan,  Greece  and Moldova  without  a  coastline
 included with the goodwill of the true border states.

 Agreement with Russia

 Second  and  no less  remarkable  than  the conference,  was  the
 cohabitation in the organization of  states at war or in dispute:
 Armenians  and Azeris,  Romanians  and  Moldovians, Russians  and
 Ukrainians temporarily buried the hatchet and thought only how to
 work together around the sea which could symbolise peace for all.
 In addition,  the countries ready  to enter the  conflagration as
 soon as Serbia  attacks Kosovo and Macedonia  - Albania, Bulgaria
 and Greece - were able to  express their fears in Antalya. Turkey
 besides, had  a good opportunity  to argue that the  paralysis of
 the international  community in the  face of Serb policy  made it
 necessary  for  new forms  of  dialogue.  And agreement  for  the
 permanent secretariat of the Black  Sea community to be in Turkey
 was proof that  her call was not  in vain. But most of  all it is
 the new harmony between Ankara and Moscow which is interesting.

 The  seperation  of  Russia  and  Ukraine,  the  Crimea  and  the
 hostility  of Ukraine  towards  Russia excludes  Moscow from  the
 Black Sea. Russia has lost her  large ports and has at the moment
 no  means to  renovate  Novorossik, the  only possible  remaining
 port.

 It was Turkey,  the old rival, which decide to  bring Russia into
 the project  and make her  the great  power partner of  the Black
 Sea. By doing  this Turkey wants to avoid the  many perils allied
 to the  regional role  she intends  to assume.  Disarming Russian
 suspicions in  advance of the  progress of her  power, preserving
 the posibility  of operating more  actively in Central  Asia when
 she  can  or wishes,  and  above  all, preventing  Russo-Ukranian
 disputes from engulfing the region.

 Humiliated by  the Ukraine which  takes pleasure in  pointing out
 that Russia no longer has a part to play in the Black Sea, thanks
 to  Turkish efforts,  Russia  has found  a  legitimate place  and
 gained a semblance  of the international influence  which she has
 lost everywhere else.

 In Antalya, Turkey  endeavoured at all levels to  close the pages
 of  the  1945 world,  to  oppose  the organization  of  east-west
 antagonism which  is a  source of instability,  and be  among the
 first  elements  of a  multipolar  world  where the  intermediate
 powers will have  the role of mediator  and 'orchestra conductor'
 in new international affairs.

 LE FIGARO, 2 January 1993
             _
 |-| /-\ |_ |_| |< {"Turkey is a regional power"
                     French President F. Mitterrand}