From: houle@nmt.edu (Paul Houle)
Subject: Re: Running out of oil  ->NEVER<-
Organization: New Mexico Tech
Date: Wed, 19 Aug 1992 15:19:52 GMT

In article <1992Aug19.062844.6646@techbook.com> szabo@techbook.com (Nick Szabo) writes:
>
>Correct as far as it goes, but you're looking at the cup half-empty.  Another
>factor is that the cost of extracting oil, and the cost of other forms
>of energy, goes down as extraction methods improve.  The cost history of
>oil -- it is near its all-time low price -- demonstrates that the technology 
>is improving faster than the  oilfield quality is dropping.  Some of that 
>other technology has or will drop in price even faster, to the point
>where it replaces oil in whole or in part.  I suspect we will still be
>using oil for petrochemicals well into the 22nd century, replacing it
>with natural gas and various forms of nuclear power for most of our
>other energy needs.  We will never completely run out of oil.

	This is probably more or less correct;  Yet I do not think that
improving technology will always be able to outrace the depletion of oil
resources.  How long it takes before sustainable sources become more economic
than fossil sources is a question that is difficult to answer,  since it
will be shaped by both forseeable and unforseeable technical advances,
changes in geopolitics and patterns of energy use.  Sustainable energy
sources are already competitive in some niches;  PV technology for powering
facilities far away from power lines and solar hot water heaters.

	So far as the reserves of petroleum in tar sands and oil shales,  I
must admit that these are a resource that I don't really want to see tapped.
The only practical way that's been advanced for extracting them is large-
scale surface mining,  with all the ecological disruption that comes with
it.  I could probably accept surface mining of some tar sand deposits,  but
there are plenty of places with oil shales (such as the deposits in Utah)
that I would fight to defend.

>Instead of squabbling about which forms of energy will replace oil, I 
>suggest we concentrate instead on enabling technologies for energy 
>production, storage and conservation that are generic across a wide 
>spectrum of methods: superconductors, high-strength materials, MHD 
>generators, frictionless bearings, flywheels, etc.  For example, 
>how can we improve on the bulky AA batteries we use for portable 
>electronics?  Surely it possible to pack more energvy into less 
>volume with very-long-life rechargeables, mini-flywheels, etc.  These
>avenues of attack could prove much more fruitful than the well-trod
>ground of grand solutions for the "energy crisis."

	Yes,  I'd agree with this.  Using energy more efficiently is an
excellent option,  regardless of where the energy comes from.  Advances in
energy storage would apply quite directly to electric vehicles for one thing,
which would allow us more flexibility in how we power them.  Even if we
powered them by burning fossil fuels in a conventional thermal plant,  we can
still see a net increase of efficiency and reduction of pollution.  We also
could power them by biomass cogeneration,  PV,  solar thermal,  hydroelectric,
geothermal,  SPSS,  or nuclear power.


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