From: fierkelab@bchm.biochem.duke.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Klesko/Arizona League
Date: 6 Jan 93 17:57:14 GMT
Organization: Biochemistry

In article <1993Jan5.214942.21541@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU>
drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David Robert Walker) writes:
>In article <1icbnkINNa7t@menudo.uh.edu> chee1l5@Jane.UH.EDU writes:
>>
>>I read that Ryan Klesko was playing this winter... 
>>
>>I wasn't familiar with this winter league, is it new? Too new for MLE's ?
>>
> From the 1991 stats, the competetive level is about the same as the
>Northwest League or the New York-Penn league.
>
>But since the offense is higher in the Arz. league, the deflation of
>offensive statistics would be a little higher. A .330 EQA was needed
>to equal an average major league hitter; that is roughly what edgar
>Martinez had with the Mariners this past year. And that's just to
>break even.
>
>The problem for MLEs isn't the age of the league, but the play level.
>James' MLEs are only used for AAA and AA; the Arizona league is low A
>level. 
>
>If you have the full stat line for him and the league I'll run it
>through my MLE code. The lines you give sound consistent with his
>career minor league totals.
>
>Clay D.
>

Clay, are you sure you're thinking about the right league?  Given the number of
AA and AAA players in the Arizona FALL league, it would be my opinion that the
level of play in this league would be at least AA, probably closer to AAA. 
After all, it was designed to give prospects an option for winter ball that
didn't involve leaving the country.  You're right about the Arizona Summer
league, though, since it's a rookie league.

And yes, us Brave-type fans are hoping that Klesko is ready soon, so we can
REPLACE Bream and TRADE Hunter!  If/when Klesko is ready, he won't be a sub. 
Bream's bat is beginning to resemble that of the later-day Keith Hernandez's. 
He might be a good occasional player/LH pinch-hitter/clubhouse
presence/defensive substitute, but the longer he starts for the Braves, the
greater the liability.  As for Brian Hunter, he's an all-or-nothing hitter who
has yet to show that he can hit RH pitching.  As for his fielding, OK for a
converted outfielder, but nothing to brag about.  If the NL goes to the DH
though (God forbid!), then the Braves will be ready!

IMHO, in the toughest division in Baseball, the Braves will either make a move
at 1st base soon or risk a second-place finish.  If they think Klesko is ready,
they'll start him opening day, or at least platoon him with Hunter  (actually,
now that I think about it, the platoon is more likely, because Cox is a
platooning fool ;).  If they don't, then look for either a) Hunter to start
against RH pitching more often, to see if he deserves to be a platoon player,
or b)  some other solution, maybe involving Dave Justice as a part-time first
baseman.  After all, until Deion Sanders goes off to play football, the Braves
have a surplus of outfielders.  Either way, I think Sid will be even more of a
part-time player next year.  The Braves, like the Expos, are (I hope) too smart
an organization to stay with aging players as starters just because of past
heroics.  (See all those posts about the Wallach Deal)  Now, can someone tell
me why we signed Bill Pecota?


Eric Roush			Deck us all with Boston Charlie
fierkelab@			Walla Walla Wash and Kalamazoo!
bchm.biochem.duke.edu	Nora's freezin' on the Trolley,
				Swaller Dollar Cauliflower Alla-ga-Roo!

				Walt Kelley
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball