From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- AL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1992 21:05:19 GMT

                  AL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
               (through games of Tuesday, September 8,
           missing a couple of last week's games in Anaheim)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Clemens        BOS   16.8   6.7  0.716   18  8   2.49   49.9   4.89
Appier         KCR   15.0   6.4  0.700   15  7   2.53   42.6   4.04
Guzman,Ju      TOR   11.4   4.8  0.702   13  3   2.45   31.2   3.11
Mussina        BAL   12.9   6.9  0.654   13  5   2.90   31.2   3.00
Nagy           CLE   13.9   8.6  0.616   13 10   3.32   27.0   2.56
Fleming        SEA   13.4   8.5  0.611   15  7   3.56   21.2   2.34
McDowell       CHI   13.8   9.0  0.604   20  7   3.28   26.6   2.20
Eldred         MIL    5.5   1.0  0.846    7  1   1.30   21.4   2.18
Brown,K        TEX   14.3  10.0  0.590   19  8   3.57   22.1   2.05
Viola          BOS   13.7   9.3  0.595   11 11   3.62   20.3   2.19
Perez,M        NYY   13.2   9.1  0.591   12 13   3.36   24.5   1.78
Abbott         CAL   11.0   7.0  0.612    6 12   3.13   22.3   1.91
Smiley         MIN   13.0   9.2  0.586   14  7   3.71   19.4   1.93
Navarro        MIL   13.2   9.7  0.578   14 11   3.76   14.7   1.72
Welch          OAK    6.9   4.2  0.619   10  5   3.02   13.3   1.18
Erickson       MIN   11.3   8.7  0.566   11 10   3.76   16.4   1.35
Wegman         MIL   12.7  10.4  0.550   12 12   3.78   15.3   1.18
Gubicza        KCR    7.2   5.6  0.564    7  6   3.80    7.2   0.75
Bosio          MIL   11.4  10.0  0.532   13  5   4.13    5.9   0.63
Key            TOR   11.0   9.7  0.532    9 13   3.81    9.6   0.63



Bottom 10 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong      CLE    4.7  11.2  0.298    3 15   6.58  -29.5  -3.16
Terrell        DET    1.9   6.5  0.222    1  6   8.01  -24.6  -2.27
Milacki        BAL    4.3   8.9  0.326    6  7   6.19  -20.0  -2.10
Slusarski      OAK    2.5   6.9  0.266    5  5   6.25  -18.6  -2.04
Finley         CAL    7.5  11.5  0.394    4 12   4.97  -12.9  -1.92
Wells          TOR    3.4   7.0  0.324    6  7   7.70  -30.0  -1.90
Stieb          TOR    3.3   6.9  0.321    3  6   5.92  -15.1  -1.69
Aldred         DET    2.4   5.8  0.292    2  6   6.99  -17.7  -1.57
Otto           CLE    3.9   7.2  0.354    5  9   6.75  -19.6  -1.57
Hesketh        BOS    6.3   9.3  0.405    5  9   5.39  -11.5  -1.39



Luckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Morris         TOR   11.0  11.5    18  5   13.5
McDowell       CHI   13.7   9.0    20  7    8.3
Bosio          MIL   11.3  10.0    13  5    6.7
Brown,K        TEX   14.3  10.0    19  8    6.6
Hibbard        CHI    7.9  10.0    10  6    6.1
Darling        OAK    9.2  11.3    12  9    5.1
Sanderson      NYY    9.7  11.7    12  9    5.0
Slusarski      OAK    2.3   6.9     5  5    4.6
Moore          OAK   10.4  12.5    13 11    4.1
Leiter         DET    3.6   5.7     5  3    4.1



Unluckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         CAL   10.7   7.0     6 12   -9.7
Armstrong      CLE    4.7  11.2     3 15   -5.5
Hanson         SEA    8.7  11.3     7 15   -5.4
Key            TOR   11.0   9.7     9 13   -5.3
Perez,M        NYY   12.9   9.1    12 13   -4.7
Viola          BOS   13.5   9.3    11 11   -4.2
Valera         CAL    9.0   8.1     6  9   -3.9
Gardiner       BOS    3.8   6.0     2  8   -3.9
Finley         CAL    7.3  11.5     4 12   -3.8
Ryan           TEX    8.2   8.6     5  9   -3.6



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS     54.7   45.5   0.546   53.1   46  51   3.95   3.82   4.75
MIL     53.9   48.8   0.525   52.5   56  47   4.15   4.14   2.65
MIN     52.1   48.4   0.518   50.7   56  43   4.32   4.09   2.14
BAL     49.3   50.1   0.496   47.8   55  48   4.35   4.35   0.04
KCR     47.1   49.3   0.488   44.5   42  50   4.52   4.53  -0.91
CHI     49.5   51.8   0.489   48.5   54  44   4.31   4.34  -0.83
CAL     49.6   52.2   0.488   48.2   42  57   4.35   4.46  -1.19
TEX     58.6   62.3   0.485   57.6   61  64   4.49   4.45  -1.60
TOR     49.2   54.4   0.475   47.8   61  47   4.63   4.78  -2.75
NYY     45.9   53.4   0.463   44.9   45  54   4.68   4.69  -3.80
CLE     44.4   54.6   0.448   43.5   39  59   5.06   4.97  -4.69
SEA     45.8   56.2   0.449   44.2   43  59   5.17   4.95  -4.74
OAK     45.0   55.9   0.446   43.4   56  46   4.62   4.94  -5.28
DET     39.2   58.1   0.403   37.5   44  53   5.29   5.45  -8.94
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AL     684.2  740.8   0.480  664.2  700 722   4.55   4.55 -25.14


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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