From: nateh@quake.sylmar.ca.us (Nate Hawthorn)
Subject: predictions
Organization: Quake Public Access
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1992 18:37:31 GMT

Posts about Mr. Coles...
 
>> What exactly *is* the data that he is gathering?
 
and so on....
 
I saw that someone said he is NOT releasing his data, but he does seem
to tell us one is comming? (Sept 11?)..
 
So why doesnt he simply put together a list of his predictions for
the last year or whatever and then show the events that seem to match
up.
 
I would assume that he would have a way of verifying that he made these
predictions *before* the events, like telling a friend to write it down
or something (this is simple).
 
My data on my system logs to a computer, so I can even look back (actually I 
*have* to look back because I let it run for days at a time anyway) and then 
match it up with USGS data I get to see what I "predicted".
 
What's interesting is that so far I am getting about 11 hours "warning"
on aftershocks and I am no where near the shocks (well, within 100 miles or 
so). But atleast my data is recorded. I never expected this thing to
do what it's doing so this is getting really interesting...
 
Now, here's the problem...
 
I am just starting this, so I don't have data for the last year, and
because I don't have much data my "theory" can be proven to work
very easily. THe more data I have the more likely my theory will get
thrown in the trash!
 
Also, I really do not want to release my "method" to the public yet
because I don't want some university using it and then inviting the
news media over to see what they are doing and acting like they
"thought" of it. I really hate that!!
 
That's why I think Mr. Coles is holding back, there's too many people
out there that seem to know how to make $$ on this stuff but have little
knowledge on how to make it all work.
 
But, I don't think it would be too hard for Mr. Coles to give you a
report on what he has predicted before.
 
Another problem...
 
Maybe Mr. Coles only has his devices set up on the San Andreas and that's
all he can afford at this time, so we will have to wait till the "big one"
to see if his system works?
 
I have enough parts to place  3 of my units around here, (and keep the
one at home too) so two are going on the san andreas and one *may*
go up to parker if I am allowed. BUt I do not have a "budget" or "grant"
so my efforts are limited by my pocket book.
 
I don't know if any of you have actually tried all this yourself, but
think about the time that you don't have to even go to lunch!!
 
I had to develop software to log all this data, and the computer board
had to be all CMOS (to run on battery remotely) and then I have to make
a program to read my data in "chart" format so that I can see what my
data correlates to.
 
And there are no programs available off the shelf that can do any of this
properly.
 
SO before you go laughing at this guy just because he's keeping all
his efforts "secret", just remember how much effort he put into his
work. It's not easy, and you must sacrfice something in order to do it,
sometimes I don't eat for a long time trying to get this stuff to work!
 
I am now working on making some way to get my data to come in over 
radio (I go out and dig up the unit and get the logged data and then
bury it again!) and some way to make my solar cells work and not get
ripped off!
 
Also the USGS data "event times" never seem to be quite right, I wish
we could E-Mail them with correct times so that they could correct
them so I don't have to sit here and fiddle around. And some type
of "binary" data file format would be nice so that it's all
computer readable too??
 
OK, I'm getting off the subject....
 
There's a book out called "and they laughed", it shows lots of inventions 
out there that are really popular now, but when the guy's created them 
people laughed at them! (like Petroleum Jelly)
 
I will be releasing my data as soon as I get enough, I don't think I will be 
releasing my "method" for a while. THe data can stand on it's own, if it 
shows the correlations correctly then it doesn't matter what I am using to 
get the data or what "theory" people may have as to why the thing works
(like why does a magnet stick to my fridge? who cares, it just does!)
 
It seems to me that big universities are too into figuring ways to get
"funding" and I can see then taking this and making a "profit" on it and 
that just doesn't wash in my book!
 
(the above is my opinion and I am entitled to it even if the government 
doesn't think so!)
 
Nate...