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Date:         Fri, 28 Aug 1992 13:14:37 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Georgia, Czecho-Slovakia, Bosnia and ..., (#763)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.BITNET, jwales@iubvm.BITNET, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com,
              christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
              76701.103@compuserve.com

Russia-

A Tupalov 134 crashed late last night, with 75 passengers and a crew
of 7, reportedly smashing into a two story building in a heavy fog.
The incident occurred east of Moscow, while all 82 on the plane were
killed.

RFE/RL reports today that the exchange rate for the ruble on Moscow
Interbank Currency Exchange dropped from 168.1 rubles to the dollar
to 205 rubles to the dollar on 27 August. Considering the 1992
inflation rate (reckoned between 800-2000% by various people), the
ruble is considered "relatively stable."

Georgia-

Boris Yeltsin called for a ceasefire in thwe Abkhazia fighting
yesterday, and denounced the "several hundred Russian volunteers" who
have joined the Abkhaz in fighting the Georgians. He also announced a
tightening of borders to ensure other fighters from Russia do NOT get
into the region. 40 were reported killed in yesterday's fighting.
Abkhazia presents several conflicting problems. Abkhazia is populated
by three times as many Georgians as Abkhazis (reportedly 20% of the
total Abkhazia population, presumably the rest are Russians- which
reportedly number 20,000). Next week, it was announced yesterday
(according to NPR), there is to be a meeting with Yeltsin,
Shevardnadze, and "separatist leaders." (No word on whether that
includes the Abkhaz Parliamentary leader Aedzinba).

Azerbaijan-

A ceasefire has reportedly been agreed to in the enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh, according to both NPR and RFE/RL, for sixty days,
though there is no enforcement mechanism in place to make it stick.


Czecho-Slovakia-

Yesterday, it was announced that Meciar and Klaus met for eight
hours, and agreed on a separation of the two states by 1 January,
1993. They will have two separate currencies, defense will have to be
worked out, and that 3/5 of the Federal parliament will have to
approve the breakup. The 74 year old federation's two members have
not announced what their new names might be, though I'd think
Slovakia will remain Slovakia.

Germany-

Yesterday, a fifth day of rioting in Rostok occurred. Over 300 people
have now been arrested. The hostility towards "foreign workers" -
primarily Vietnamese and Romanian Gypsies in this case - in Germany
is incredibly intense. The report on NPR stated that over 700
"anti-foreign" incidents have occurred throughout Germany in just
1992. Chancellor Kohl decried the violence in no uncertain terms.

Bosnia-

The peace talks in London lurched to a close yesterday, with an
announcement that further talks will occur "next week" in Geneva.
Karadzic, the Serbian leader from Bosnia, reportedly agreed to UN
supervision of heavy weapons, allowing refugees to return home,
closing the detention camps "as soon as possible," lifting the siege
of Sarajevo, and returning 20% of "conquered" territory back to
Bosnia. All parties allegedly agreed to recognize Bosnia as a
sovereign state. But, the fighting in Sarajevo continues, with
another 10 killed in fighting overnight. US Acting Scretary of State
Eagleburger said that all Bosnian territory has to be restored to
Bosnia, (and called the struggle between the warring parties "a
cancer in the heart of Europe") while British Prime Minister Major
stated that West has to keep up the pressure so as to ensure a
cessation of the fighting. The Serbs and Croats reportedly favor
partition of Bosnia (the "cantonization" idea), while the Muslims
adamantly oppose partition.


All the negotiations and ceasefires in eastern Europe and the "CIS
states" are heartening, but this observer remains skeptical about
their long term effacy. I do not believe peace will come in either
Bosnia or Abkhaz until the "demands"/desires of the Bosnian Muslims
and the Abkhaz minorities are fairly dealt with, along with the
desires and aspirations of the Serbs and Croats in Bosnia, and the
Georgians and Russians in Abkhazia. I do not believe peace is
forthcoming in the near future. One hopes that such peace CAN occur
if people will genuinely work in that direction. That remains to be
seen - actions in either case will speak MUCH more than words. VMS
Comments: Gated by NETNEWS@AUVM.AMERICAN.EDU