From: "IAAYROS@MVS.oac.ucla.edu" <IAAYROS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU>
Subject:      Let's do some homework before next CMFN appeares in US congress
Reply-To: "IAAYROS@MVS.oac.ucla.edu" <IAAYROS@MVS.OAC.UCLA.EDU>
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Sun, 8 Nov 1992 13:51:00 GMT
Comments: To: china-nt <china-nt@UGA.CC.UGA.EDU>

> >Again, it should be pointed out that China will not lose MFN.  Only
> >the products from state-owned companies will lose the tariff benefit.
>
> Yes, but that is only "Yi Xiang Qin Yuan". Nobody is sure what will be
> the response from the other side and final consequence. Many tragedies
> in this world, occured because one side did not know the other's bottom
> line.

Almost all American people, both Democratic and Republic, are proud of
JF Kennedy, then President during the Cuba crisis against USSR, for his
couragious decision and action taken for the "interest of America".

Was he "sure what will be the response from the other side and final
consequence"? I believe the answer is no. As a matter of fact, high rank
USSR military leaders had pressed Kroschoff very hard to take a hard and
even confrontational attitude/measure toward the US.

What happened later?  JFK did what he considered necessary and earned his
role in the US history.  Did he "Yi Xiang Qin Yuan" and win just by luck?
I don't think so. He and his administration must have done a lot homework,
in addition to the willingness of taking risk for their interest and value.

JFK is a great stateman, at least to the "America's interest".  He had
been willing to take challenge and even personal risk to serve "America's
interest" until he was physically assasinated.

Since CMFN is not a natural science project which usually can be explored
in a lab and even be repeated under controled situation, so, let's neither
"Yi Xiang Qin Yuan" nor just asserting others being "Yi Xiang Qin Yuan".
Instead, try to analyze the risk level or probability of CG's response.

1. The latest version of the CMFN bill only affects products by state-owned
   companies. Then, how many percentage of the import from China is by this
   section of its economy?

2. Based on that percentage, how likely CG will retaliate rather than give in?

3. Based on CCP's new Political Bureau's power balance between the forces of
   command-economy and market-economy, how likely CG will try to go around --
   transfer more state-owned companies to private format or joint venture,
   and does it in faster pace, so that they can continue to earn prescious
   foreign exchange without escalate a trade war with US?

3. The Sino-US trade agreement reached at eleventh hour, why CG gave in? How
   important is US support for CG to obtain its official status in the GATT
   where Taiwan is catching up?

4. How could the CG actually swallow the Chinese Student Protection bill
   and the selling of the F16 fighters to Taiwan without call back its
   ambassador, i.e., lowering its diplomatic tie with US?

5. If CG considers releasing those activive political prisioners such as
   Wang Juntao, Liu Gang,... is a face losing and will cause unstable
   political situation, then, is it possible to make a deal like the excile
   of Prof. Fang Lizi. This way we can at least rescue some political
   prisoners who are in poor health condition.

Questions like these need to be explored or contemplated for the next
possible CMFN lobby.  I wonder if IFCSS can ask advices from some
professional institutes such as the law firm that offerd excellent help
to CSS on the S1216 lobby.

Kevin
Newsgroups: talk.politics.china