From: roger@crux.Princeton.EDU (Roger Lustig)
Subject: Re: Times on Base: all-time records and Frank Thomas
Originator: news@nimaster
Reply-To: roger@astro.princeton.edu (Roger Lustig)
Organization: Princeton University
Distribution: usa
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1992 19:21:19 GMT

In article <BuBoxL.IuA@usenet.ucs.indiana.edu> rstimets@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (robert and stimets) writes:
>In article <BuA3o5.8Bn@news.cso.uiuc.edu> jhg8680@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu (Jon  Hamkins) writes:
>>rstimets@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (robert and stimets) writes:
>>
>>>In article <5592@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
>>>>Thus spake chee1l5@jetson.uh.edu (Sam Lane):
>>>>>In article <5580@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP>, genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
>>>>Fielders' choice is different.  FC's usually occur when the fielder could have
>>>>put you out with a routine play, but instead chose to put out some other runner
>>>>with an equally routine play.  It's worse than an ordinary out, in that an
>>>>ordinary out at least might advance other runners ahead of you.  It is totally
>>>>unlike reaching on an error, and really is due to circumstances beyond the
>>>>batter's control.
>>>>
>>>But in certain circumstances that FC can be big.  If the batter (Jeff Branson)
>>>is hitting with one out in the bottom of the ninth, runners at first and
>>>third, and he grounds up the middle, just beating the relay to avoid the
>>>double play, while (Paul O'Neill) dashes home for the winning run...
>>
>>Yes, in that case, you do help your team.  In fact, you even slightly
>>help the number of expected runs in the inning.  Reposting Sherri's
>>data from May, here's the list of expected runs in various situations:
>>
>>                  Outs
>>Runners       0     1    2
>>None        .454  .249 .095
>>1st         .783  .478 .209
>>2nd        1.068  .699 .348
>>3rd        1.277  .897 .382
>>1st,2nd    1.380  .888 .457
>>1st,3rd    1.639 1.088 .494
>>2nd,3rd    1.946 1.371 .661
>>Full       2.254 1.546 .798
>>
>Wow! I hadn't seen this list before (it must have been in some Fielder thread).
>There are some surprising things going on here, in particular expected runs 
>increases by loading the bases in all cases as opposed to runners on second and
>third.  This doesn't seem right since only a walk or hit-batsman  will score
>a run in the bases loaded case as opposed to the 2nd and 3rd case, but then 
>either of these just proceeds to load the bases.  With two out, then, an outfield single 
>scores as many runs in either case, while a chopper towards second will more likely score
>a run with first base open, and more likely end the inning otherwise.

With any number of outs, a homer or triple scores an extra run, and a 
double usually does, too.  That'swhere the difference of .13 to .31 runs
comes from.  The force-out/dp possibility keeps the numbers low with
one out.

(I've seen 3-run singles, too -- *without* a throw.  I saw Pete Rose
hit one on 6/21/86 vs. the Mets, I believe. Or maybe it was in May.  In
any case, Gooden.)

>So I ask, where does this info come from?  

Good question.  Glib answer: Palmer and Thorn, _The Hidden Game of
Baseball_, table VIII-1.  The infamous "Table 8-1" that Palmer then
proceeds to abuse.  (This does not detract from its value.)

>Does this study covers years of baseball?

It's based on a computer simulation of all games played in 1961-1977.

(This immediately suggests a slight flaw: the SB game is underrepresented. 
Also, the pitchers' years of 1963-68 and 1971-73 are overrepresented.  But
these are nitpicks, imho.)

>If so, why do managers intentionally walk batters?  It would seem to be universally
>counter-productive.  I guess in a close game it wouldn't matter that a team will
>likely score 2.254 runs as opposed to 1.946.  The chance of the batter hitting 
>directly to a drawn in first or third or to the pitcher (best case) is worth it to
>put the batter on.

a) You're right; it's often a bad play.  

b) However, this table doesn't always apply.  In some cases, one needs
a table that gives p(score at least one run).  IBB can increase the 
chance of getting out of the inning unscathed, even though E(runs)
increases.

Roger

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