From: stlin@stevelin.Eng.Sun.COM (Steven Lin)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: Rumor: U.S. Selling Nuke Sub to Taiwan?
Date: 8 Jan 1993 20:16:25 GMT
Organization: Sun
NNTP-Posting-Host: stevelin

In article <ROTEN.93Jan8130511@cuba.gsfc.nasa.gov>  (Charles Roten) writes:
>In article <1ig3ihINNe0u@zygote.hsc.usc.edu> (James Ou) writes: 
>
>>>Why is Tiawan after all these weapons for?  A naval blockade would do
>>>the job.
>>To prevent a possible naval blockade. :-)
>
>The odds of a successful cross-Strait invasion by the PLA are slim-to-zero.  
>
I hate to say something against Charles, but his lack of understanding of
the position of ROC and the sistuation of Taiwan Strait make me to.

In recent years, due to the US in favor of CCP to limit the arm sale to
Taiwan and also force the other countries to ban arm sales to Taiwan
that make Taiwan like a shabby old man. Taiwan has to buy retired F-104
to take parts to maintain limit AF capacity. This is more likely watching
a starving man dying without help. The US claims ROC as an old friend.
Is that a human way to treat a friend?

The ROC has done various efforts to preserve the AF capacity, which includes
staying in low profile to avoid conflict with Japan in Diao-yu-tai incident.
To prevent the air bomb from CCP to damage the AF, ROC has completed the
Chia-shan plan that allows many air planes hiding in the mountains.

ROC hasn't worried much of CCP invasion. So far the CCP has no such a 
capability, if the CCP has the CCP may have done the invasion.

People should know better that the trade is the number one business of ROC.
A naval blockdade will creat high risk in Taiwan Strait, so the commerical
vessels from all trade partners will not stop at Taiwan ports to prevent
the high risk of being sunk by the CCP submarines. That in turn will kill
the trade of Taiwan, and finally kills the economy of Taiwan.

The CCP is possible to launch a long range missile to attack if all means
make Taiwan impossible to compromise. The last, after the ROCAF has been
disabled, the CCP may launch a large scale of invasion with all possible
fishing boats and naval ships. Thus, the ROC needs to maintain air strong
to discourage the CCP make such an attack.

>I have described the problems of the PLAAF with aircraft quality and 
>training before.  And the PLAAF is the _KEY_ here.  Granted, the present 
>immaturity of the PLA in combined-arms operational methods would be a 
>crippling handicap even given a mature PLAAF, but without that, the 
>invasion barges would not even make it across the Strait.  
>
>I have read, in this and other forums, of the strategy of a naval 
>blockade.  But in a time when one fighter jock with a smart bomb and an 
>attitude can convert a blockading vessel into scrap metal on the _bottom_ 
>of the Strait, don't you think the PLAAF had better have _control_ of the 
>skies above the Strait first ???  
>
>I have also read about the new Kuznetsov-class carrier, the Varyag, that 
>the PRC will be getting, from the Ukraine, I believe.  Plus enough 
>navalized SU-27s for her flight deck.  But one carrier does not a modern 
>navy make.  There are two additional hurdles to be surmounted before the 
>PRC has a _REAL_ carrier it can _USE_.  First, the carrier must have a 
>crew _well_ trained in carrier deck operations.  And that is one of the 
>most complex missions a naval crew can face.  It is going to take as 
>much as a decade before the bugs are worked out.  Second, any modern 
>carrier needs a battle group to protect it from missile boats and hostile 
>aircraft.  The PRC bought just the carrier, and not a small fleet.  And 
>they won't even be taking delivery for another 4 years, from what I've 
>read.  
>
>Folks, when considering the cross-Strait military balance, remember the 
>balance across the English Channel in July of 1940.  The Lufwaffe had 
>2800 aircraft to the British 700.  The quality of both Lufwaffe planes 
>and Lufwaffe pilots fully measured up to what the British had .. _NOT_ 
>the case across the Taiwan Strait.  The British army was in a shambles 
>after Dunkirk .. they were drilling farmers with shotguns for lack of 
>men and equipment !  The Wehrmacht, however was at the peak of its power 
>and proficiency, and had just overrun most of Euorope with new 
>operational methods the British were not to fully master even by war's 
>end.  
>