From: mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro
Subject: Re: Dexter Carter
Date: 4 Oct 92 01:32:50 GMT
Article-I.D.: netcom.1992Oct4.013250.1976
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest)

In article <ccj=03mj9bja00@amdahl.uts.amdahl.com> ronnie@uts.amdahl.com (Ronnie Townsend) writes:

>You 49er fans have never forgiven Dexter for being a number one draft pick 
>have you? 

Not as long as the Niners are claiming an era of (relative) austerity,
and the Midget's pulling down #1 pick bucks, no.

>Dexter will do just fine as a situation back and kick returner for 
>the Niners. That's what they drafted him for. 

Oh?  Then why was he listed as their #1 RB last season?  Doesn't sound
like a situation back to me.  Another minor correction:  he was drafted
in part to run back kickoffs *and punts* but was so fumble-prone that
they relieved him of punt duty.

>Neither Watters nor Lee have his hands or his speed. 

Funny you'd mention hands; the Midget's are pure stone.  As for speed,
what good is it if you're subject to arm-tackling by the opposing
punter?

>Remember too that Lee sat the Bench behind Carter for a year at FSU. 

Well, wasn't he two years behind him as well?

>Dexter Carter can play ball. He is not big enough to be an every 
>down back in the NFL and I don't think anybody except maybe Seifert ever 
>expected him to be. 

He's not big enough to be any kind of RB.  Carter's strength (his only
strength that I'm aware of) is his ability to really rip a run that 
other backs can't make into a big play.  The run vs. KC late in the game
last year is an excellent example.  The problem is that:

1) Unless you're a psychic, you've got no idea when that will happen,
2) It isn't ever going to happen very often,
and
3) When it doesn't happen, you've got his patented 1-2 yard gain.

Dexter Carter, in fact, is a showcase example of why the popular YPC
statistic is so badly flawed.  By using the *mean*, rather than the
*median*, his occasional 50 yard scamper greatly distorts the futility
of his 18 for 38 performance ignoring the one big gain.

I strongly suspect that he'd be toward the bottom of the league's starting
RBs in terms of median YPC.  (I don't have the raw statistical data to
back this up, but if someone does, they can send it to me and I'll take
a stab at it.)  And this is the real value of a RB:  the ability to
consistently grind out 3-5 yards, someone upon whom you can rely when
it's 3rd and 3 or such.

Having given this some thought, however, it's a bit more evident to me
why the Oilies might be interested in this kind of player.  Their
offensive scheme is consummate big-play oriented, and Carter might have
been yet another arrow in the quiver.  That he can't give them what most
teams need in a RB is irrelevant.

That being said, however, the Niners hardly need a player.  Their WR corps
and Young at QB give them more than enough big-play opportunities as it is.
I wish the Niners have made the trade.

>Remember that the last time the 49ers made the playoffs, 
>Dexter Carter was their leading rusher! 

And has less to do with their regular-season success than any NFC playoff
team's starting RB in the past 20 years.

>You guys amaze me in your inability to see the value of certain players in 
>certain roles.  [...]

Relax, Ronnie; we know we're going to end up in Football Hell for 
speaking ill of a former Nole.  And if you were as objective on this
subject as I've seen you be on others, you'd admit that it's nearly
impossible to devise a play-calling scheme for which the benefits of
a big-play back would outweigh the drawbacks to an underweight, fumble-
prone runner.  The Oilies have such a scheme in place (which might
explain partly their lack of postseason success); the Niners thankfully
do not.

-- 
Michael Zimmers                                    |  Home:  408 996 1984
SoftHelp                                           |  Work:  408 996 1965
Software Solutions for Open Systems                |  Data:  408 996 1974
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.pro