From: dubie@tnpubs.enet.dec.com ("I, Dubious: TAY2-2/M7, DTN 227-3709  08-Oct-1992 1852")
Subject: The Millenium Project
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 92 16:28:30 PDT
X-Received: by usenet.pa.dec.com; id AA03458; Thu, 8 Oct 92 16:28:33 -0700
X-Received: by enet-gw.pa.dec.com; id AA15465; Thu, 8 Oct 92 16:28:28 -0700
X-Received: from tnpubs.enet; by decwrl.enet; Thu, 8 Oct 92 16:28:30 PDT
X-To: banpln@tnpubs.enet.dec.com
X-Cc: dubie@tnpubs.enet.dec.com
X-Apparently-To: alt.education.bangkok.planning.usenet

I realize this is a bit early, but this conference has engendered
some interest.
The following is a note from one of my former instructors, Jerry 
Glenn, in the online M.A. program in Media Studies at the New School for Social
Research. Comments welcome.

Bill Dubie, Moderator


Dear Bill,  in your conference on strategic planning you asked for questions:
what are the best examples of effective use of futures research in
strategic planning?  The United Nations University is doing a feasibility
study of a major effort on futures research and would be inerested in what
you gather from such a question.  Here's some general background on the
project:
 
THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT

     The United Nations University, an autonomous organ of the UN, which can
focus intellectual resources on world problems as a global, decentralized,
non-degree granting, post-graduate research institution is examining the
feasibility of organizing futures research to continuously up-date and improve
humanity's thinking about the future and make that thinking available through
a variety of media for public education and feedback.

     In collaboration with the Smithsonian Institution, The Futures Group, and
the EPA, the UNU is linking futurists, scholars, and institutions around the
world to create an international information system of forecasts, key
questions, lessons from history, and potential futures research agendas.
Called the "Millennium Project," it will also evaluate futures research
methodology and the potential for setting standards, along with integrating
forecasts to describe potential futures, and propose policy choices.
 
 
         (Turn the page for goal, objectives, and domains of the study)

                   THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT
 
 
The decade ahead allows us the opportunity to conduct innovative research and
analysis on the images and reality of the possibilities of the 21st century.
A thoughtful look at the future, especially in a era of exceptional
transition, can make a significant contribution to an understanding of the
human condition.
 
Many of the studies that will be generated about the future at the turn of the
millennium are likely to be ad hoc and hastily prepared, responding to the
pressures of the moment.  We believe a more careful, thorough, and research-
based process to produce a body of integrated futures research, along with a
system for its evolution and dissemination through a variety of media can
dramatically improve this situation.
 
The UNU, in collaboration with the Smithsonian Institution and The Futures
Group, is currently exploring the feasibil-ity of organizing futures research.
We call it the "Millennium Project,"  a global, long-range and multidisci-
plinary effort to anticipate, describe, and assess emerging trends and
potential events and conditions of the 21st century, and develop policy and
programmatic responses to shape a more positive future.
 
The US EPA is funding the international computer linkages as the first US
Government support of the UNU.  We expect the feasibility study to take
approximately ten months costing $229,000 and the Millennium Project to take
approximately eight years costing $1-3 million per year.  Pending the results
of the feasibility study, several large corporations have indicated the
likelihood of our securing annual contributions of $25,000 each from 50 to 100
corporations.  We also expect some government support, as the UNU has raised
over $200 million for our programs thus far.  UNESCO has expressed interest in
adding funds for the Millennium Project in it next funding cycle beginning in
1994.
 
Our study will examine the feasibility of the following objectives of the
Millennium Project: (1) Build a permanent system to link scholars and
institutions around the world as a "UNU Forum on the Future;"  (2)  Describe
the direction, velocity, and scope of global changes and the likely future
state of peoples and societies, incorporating forecasts of the effects of
science and technology, demographics, economics, conflicts, and environmental
change on the future conditions of humankind; (3)  Examine the
appropriateness, validity, and reliability of the several methodologies of
futures research, advancing the best possible methodologies and conceptual
frameworks for dealing with particular domains and particular regions of the
world, and to the extent possible establish a set of standards for futures
research; (4)  Synthesize data and interpretations in several domains of
change, human action, and policy; analyze what is known of historical patterns
and change; and identify plausible alternative futures;  (5)  Identify policy
choices for building a more positive future; and (6) Conduct substantial
public education, dissemination, and social marketing in order to increase
public awareness of the stakes in anticipating and influencing change..
Synthesize data and interpretations in several domains of change, human action,
and policy; analyze what is known of historical patterns and change;
and identify plausible alternative futures;

All the best, Jerry Glenn

William Dubie
dubie@tnpubs.enet.dec.com
Digital Equipment Corporation,
Littleton, Mass.

Standard disclaimer: These views don't necessarily
reflect those of Digital Equipment Corporation.

Newsgroups: alt.education.bangkok.planning