From: crs@stein.u.washington.edu (Cliff Slaughterbeck)
Subject: Re: FSU, A&M, and schedules
Organization: University of Washington, Seattle
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 1992 18:22:10 GMT

HADCRJAM@admin.uh.edu (MILLER, JIMMY A.) writes:
>
>  What with all the talk about schedules and stuff, I thought I'd toss
>some coals on the fire with a little research.
>
>  FSU has faced 10 opponents.  The won/loss of those opponents is 54-46-1.
>  A&M has faced 10 opponents.  The won/loss of those oppenents is 41-58-0.
>
>The winning % of FSU opponents is 54%  A&M's is 41%.

Sigh.  Both FSU and TAMU are members of a conference.  Please note that at
the end of the season, the cumulative conference average is always exactly
50%.  Every year.  Comparing overall winning percentage of opponents is not
sufficient to differentiate teams.  You also need to compare relative strength
of those conferences and their winning percentages outside of conference.
Here, for example is the ACC.  Note that the out of conference record of
the cumulative ACC is 18-5-1, a .771 winning percentage.  The ACC still has
four out of conference games left.

				ACC
                                 W L T Pts OP  W L T Pts OP
x-Fla. St.                      8  0 0 288 122   9  1 0 374 148
N.C. St.                        5  2 0 163 120   8  2 1 283 170
N.Carolina                      4  3 0 159 165   7  3 0 237 188
Wake For.                       4  3 0 140 163   7  3 0 213 183
Ga. Tech                        4  4 0 156 205   5  5 0 220 255
Virginia                        4  4 0 214 184   6  4 0 300 191
Clemson                         3  5 0 170 176   5  5 0 248 189
Maryland                        2  6 0 199 248   3  8 0 292 365
Duke                            0  7 0 138 244   2  8 0 237 312

Now here are FSU's non conference games.  Of course, they haven't played 
Florida yet.  Of the two opponents they have played, the combined record
is 11-8-0, or .579 winning percentage.  This will go up, of course, when
they face Florida.

                                W  L  T  Pts  OP
Tulane                         2   8  0  134  325
Miami (Fla.)                   9   0  0  277  100
Florida                        7   2  0  202  180

Now let's look at TAMU's schedule.  Here is the overall SWC.  Note that the
out of conference mark is 16-14-1, a .532 winning percentage.  The SWC still
has 2 out of conference games left.

                            SOUTHWEST
		                   Conference      All Games
                                W  L T Pts OP    W  L T Pts OP
Texas A&M                       5  0 0 152  76  10  0 0 278 145
Texas                           4  1 0 161 129   6  3 0 259 227
Rice                            4  2 0 155 117   5  4 0 233 178
Baylor                          3  3 0 180 139   5  5 0 303 243
Texas Tech                      3  3 0 159 167   4  6 0 243 297
SMU                             2  5 0 128 217   4  6 0 188 257
Houston                         1  4 0 156 199   3  6 0 282 308
TCU                             1  5 0 138 185   2  7 1 185 282

And here are TAMU's out of conference foes.  Their combined record is
20-31-0, a .392 winning percentage.

                                W  L  T  Pts  OP
LSU                            1   8  0  145  219
Missouri                       2   8  0  192  252
Stanford                       8   3  0  255  172
Tulsa                          4   6  0  231  265
Louisville                     5   6  0  214  243


Thus, FSU clearly wins the battle of schedule strength with TAMU.  At this
point in the season, TAMU has only beaten two clubs with winning records,
Stanford and Rice.  Both gave them a good tussle, and Rice is in danger
of falling below .500.  They still have to face the Longhorns on Thanksgiving.
FSU, on the other hand has beaten 4 teams with winning records, and lost
a close game with a fifth, Miami.  In addition, they still have to play
Florida.

The argument isn't about whether or not TAMU's schedule compares strongly
enough with FSU, as it clearly does not.  The argument is about what 
defines a better team.  Is it (a) Winning all of your games, no matter
who you face, or (b)  Winning almost everyone of your games, while facing
extremely stiff competition.

The polls have no set guidelines for how a person should vote, and an
argument can be made for either (a) or (b).  That, in my mind, is the
problem with the polls.

****************************************************************************
Cliff Slaughterbeck           * 
Dept. of Physics, FM-15       *   Hey Matt!  The diffusion pump is full of
University of Washington      *   water again!
Seattle, WA 98195             *
****************************************************************************
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college