From: vinsight@netcom.com (Chan T. Vninsight)
Subject: An Outlook For 1992
Originator: daemon@media.mit.edu
Reply-To: vinsight@netcom.com
Organization: N/A
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 1992 07:44:41 GMT


editorial
An OUTLOOK FOR 1992
(Vietnam Insight January 1992)

The political scene of our fast changing world has become a breathtaking 
roller-coaster ride during the past few years.  Events toward the end of 
1991 indicate more spectacular changes are underway.

With the death of the Soviet Union and the severe economic crisis facing
the people there, it is hoped that the leaders of the newly independent
nations will be able to pull their countries out of the current economic
quagmire and stabilize the political situation. Leaders of the free
world have indicated that they will not let the democratic revolution
there fail. Aid is already on its way to help the people get through the
hard winter.

The United Nations has been extremely busy brokering peace in many parts
of the world. At the center of attention is the Cambodian settlement.
Toward the end of 1991, this fragile peace process in Cambodia was
progressing and hostages of many countries were released. Superpowers of
the Cold War era, which were often defined by their military and nuclear
strength, have been replaced by new ones of economic power. New economic
commonwealths were born. Former adversaries have begun entering economic
treaties. There is finally hope for a lasting peace in our troubled
world.

Against this backdrop, the United States' moves toward normalization of
relations with Vietnam are understandable, if not entirely correct. The
pace of normalization as indicated by Washington is to parallel the
peace progress in Cambodia and the resolution of the American servicemen
missing in action in Vietnam.  With free elections in Cambodia planned
for 1993 and the White House preoccupied with its own 1992 presidential
election, full normalization between the two countries is not expected
until 1993 at the earliest (IF things go as expected). But the prospects
for the lifting of the US embargo against Vietnam, whether completely or
partially, and of increased traffic between the two countries in 1992
are quite real.

The removal of US economic sanctions will certainly please, first and
foremost, the Vietnamese Communist leadership. It is crucial to the
Hanoi regime's plans to save its own neck. The regime hopes foreign
investments, aid and loans, which have been obstructed by the US
embargo, will start to pour in to salvage its bankrupt economy. Despite
the fact that continued mismanagement of these funds will not improve
the country's economy in the long run, Hanoi hopes it will temporarily
creates optimism and save the system from imminent collapse.

From the viewpoint of American business, 1992 will be a breakthrough
with the lifting of the US embargo opening the door to "lucrative"
business opportunities in Vietnam.  After years fighting the US policy,
they will finally have a chance to do business in Vietnam.  American
businessmen will be in for a rude shock when they realize that Vietnam's
true potential can never be tapped under the current communist system.

For the US government, the move is used as a carrot to resolve the
Cambodian conflict and the emotional POW/MIA issue.  Its other, lower
priority short term goals are probably to relieve pressure from American
businesses wanting to adventure in the Vietnam market, playing along
with the international reconciliation theme, and proving that the United
States has overcome its Vietnam War complex.

The Vietnamese people have mixed feeling about all this. While they
certainly welcome the return of American friends as a symbol of freedom
and prosperity, they also refuse to accept any hint of diplomatic
acceptance of and cooperation with the current communist leadership. For
this only means the end of hope for democratic changes in Vietnam. The
fact that China remains one of the most oppressive state on earth after
over a decade of open door policies towards the West is a frightening
example of what normalized relations with Vietnam might "accomplish".

Like neighboring Cambodia, Vietnam has been struggling for years for
freedom and happiness. Under world supervision, the Cambodian people's
aspirations are finally coming true. As the United Nations and
countries of the free world eagerly lend a hand to the peace process
there, it is sad, extremely sad indeed, to see that Vietnam remains an
island of tyranny in the "New World Order".  The issue of freedom and
human rights for the Vietnamese people is never addressed in the
normalization process.

It is hope that there must be more noble and subtle reason for the US
government wanting to return to Vietnam. It had entered that tiny
nation for a noble cause and left it in defeat, not militarily but
psychologically and morally. It probably now wants to come back not only
to fix the psychological scar, for economic gains (if any), and other
political or diplomatic binding, but also to finish its moral obligation
to those that have sacrificed for the American upholding value: liberty.

Toward this goal, the US government will maintain its economic and
diplomatic leverages to push forward democratization in Vietnam. And the
prospect of lifting the embargo will not occur until Hanoi reinstates
the rights of the Vietnamese people.

-- 
Vietnam Insight (vinsight@netcom.com)
Chan Tran, editor
Newsgroups: soc.culture.vietnamese