From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 November
Date: 5 Nov 92 08:31:31 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              04 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 NOVEMBER
------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 309, 11/04/92
10.7 FLUX=142.8  90-AVG=124        SSN=119      BKI=1234 4423  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B5.5     FLU1=1.5E+07  FLU10=2.7E+06  PKI=2335 5524  PAI=027
  BOU-DEV=008,017,036,064,050,067,018,021   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.7   @ 1103UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.7   @ 1605UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.5
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 0650UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 2245UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.8DB @ 1345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2255UT    PCA-AVG= +0.3DB
BOUTF-MAX=55430NT @ 2346UT   BOUTF-MIN=55377NT @ 1532UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+098NT@ 1729UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-026NT@ 0845UT  G7-AVG=+063,+039,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+107NT@ 2203UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-017NT@ 0423UT  G6-AVG=+079,-004,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:128,124,120;SESC:145,140,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,015/020,015,020
    KFCST=2345 4222 2234 3333  27DAY-AP=009,021   27DAY-KP=3212 1233 2225 5443
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**PROTN10
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity remained low today.  C-class flare activity dominated.
New Region 7332 (S21W27) emerged very rapidly today, growing over 100 percent
larger than yesterday to 130 millionths.  An isolated M-class flare may be
supported by this region if growth continues.

     Region 7330 (S08E31) is also growing at a modest pace and is associated
with an increasing area of bright plage.  An isolated M-class flare may also
be possible from this region.

     Other activity of interest included an eruptive prominence on the
northeast limb near N28 at about 15:00 UT.

     Protons at greater than 10 MeV continued to gradually decay.  By the end
of the day, protons had fallen to approximately 15 pfu.  This proton event is
expected to end during the early part of 05 November.  Protons will remain
enhanced below the event threshold for at least several more days.  A return
to preflare background levels is unlikely to be observed for some time.

     New Region 7333 (N07E47) was numbered today in addition to Region 7332.

     Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.  M-class flaring may
be observed from either Region 7330 or 7332 over the next 72 hours.  Nothing
more energetic is expected at this time.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active today.  Periods of
minor geomagnetic storming were observed again, this time during the local
daylight hours.  The field is expected to continue mostly unsettled to active
over the next three days (through 07 November inclusive).

     HF propagation conditions improved markedly over the last 24 hours for
the high and polar latitude paths.  Transpolar propagation is now possible,
although signal qualities are still below normal due to minor enhanced levels
of geomagnetic activity.  Middle and low latitude paths were near-normal.
Similar conditions are expected to persist for the next three days.  Middle
and low latitude paths should see fair to good propagation, while high and
polar latitude paths should see fair to poor propagation with occasional
periods of very poor propagation during local geomagnetic and auroral
substorming. Most of the substorm activity is expected during the local
night sectors.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7323  S16W79  014  0130 DAO  06  003 BETA
7324  N16W55  350  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7325  S16W40  335  0050 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7326  S06W48  343  0170 HAX  03  002 ALPHA
7329  S16W01  296  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7330  S08E31  264  0380 EAO  11  018 BETA
7332  S21W27  322  0130 DAO  08  011 BETA
7333  N07E47  248  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7328  N17W48  343                    PLAGE
7331  N07W23  318                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 NOVEMBER TO 07 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7311 S17   168


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 NOVEMBER
-------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
04/ 0451     0500     0541                LDE    C2.4   50


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
66   N29E11 N10W22 N15W32 N33E06  311  ISO   POS   011 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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