From: "bill dehaan" <bill.dehaan@canrem.com>
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Subject: sales numbers
Date: 18 Aug 92 13:46:36 EST
Reply-To: "bill dehaan" <bill.dehaan@canrem.com>
Distribution: comp
Organization: Canada Remote Systems

In message <1992Aug12.213036.41122@h.edu>, Stacy John Behrens writes:

SJB>In article <1992Aug8.2712.3391#dosgate>, bill.dehaan@canrem.com (bill dehaan

BDH>                                                         Windows
BDH>aquired 4 million users in 26 months, while OS/2 2.0 got 1 million in 4
BDH>months.  Which one is doing better with the public?

BDH>[hand up]

BDH>Over here! Over here! I know, I know.

BDH>4,000,000 > 1,000,000

BDH>And here we thought it was a trick question. :-)

SJB>It would be a trick question if the answer were that simple.  Unfortunately,

Obviously, my sarcasm was  a little too subtle  here. In fact, OS/2  has
done reasonably well, if not overly well, with the public at large.  But
it hasn't begun to scratch the surface of the Windows juggernaught, yet.

SJB>it isn't.  If the fact that Windows has a larger user base at this time, is
SJB>only one factor in the decision.  You must also weigh growth potential of th
SJB>market, growth rate, intensity of competition, and a number of other factors

Agreed. Do far, the  only thing OS/2 has  going is its growth  rate. And
even that  doesn't mean  much, given  that it  has only  been out  for 4
months. It remains to be seen if it has any staying power.

SJB>This doesn't necissarily mean that you ignore Windows, but the OS/2 market h
SJB>some very attractive points in its favor.  OS/2 has far greater growth
SJB>potential than Windows.  It also is growing at a faster rate.  Perhaps most
SJB>important, the Windows market is the hot competition market right now.  If I
SJB>were looking to break into or dominate a market, Windows would not be my fir
SJB>choice.  The competition is really intense.  OS/2 currently provides a much
SJB>tamer market then Windows, and this provides oppourtunities that just don't
SJB>exist with Windows.  Simply saying 4 million is greater than 1 million is a
SJB>grossly oversimplified view of the market.

Sure. And so is comparing one million  in sales of a new system to  four
million in sales of an existing  system. Windows sold in a vacuum.  OS/2
sold with a major competitor. But technical merit isn't the sole  factor
here, nor is marketing, nor is applications support. It's a  combination
of all that, and more. Remember that OS/2 v1.0 sales were very good  out
of the starting  gate, as well.  And look what  happened to it.  I'm not
saying that 2.0  is a like  product, nor do  I think it  will suffer the
same fate.  But to  presume that  it will  dominate the  market is  very
premature at this point, I'd think.

BDH>I'd rather sell  the most apps,  period. The Windows  base is undeniably
BDH>larger than the OS/2 market, and I expect it will remain so for quite  a
BDH>time to come. Now where the NT market sits, I don't know.

SJB>There is a very good chance that in many application areas, you will sell le
SJB>apps in Windows than in OS/2.  Shear number of users does not dictate how we

Undoubtably.  OS/2  is  a  far  better  market  for communications, data
collection,  and  other  real-time  environments,  for  one  thing.  The
question is  whether OS/2  will own  enough of  those niche markets, and
whether those niches will be too esoteric to matter.

SJB>your application will sell.  Look at MicroSoft for example.  Their DOS based
SJB>word processor was pretty good as DOS word processors went, but the dominant
SJB>leader was WordPerfect.  MS sold a lot of word processing packages, but the
SJB>only platform on which they dominated word processors on until very recently
SJB>was the Macintosh.  It was a smaller overall market, but I would be willing
SJB>lay odds that it brought in more money for MS than their equivelant DOS
SJB>product because they didn't have as difficult a time competing and fighting
SJB>against a stubborn user base.  The situation was similair for Windows.  They

True.

SJB>were able to be among the first to the Windows market with their word
SJB>processor and several other packages, and they now dominate that market.  OS
SJB>is a new market with a lot of potential.  I think many companies would
SJB>sacrifice a little on the bottom line next quarter in order to gain a
SJB>significant chunk of what looks to be a highly profitable market in the not
SJB>too distant future.  The biggest markets are not always the most profitable,
SJB>and sometimes not profitable at all.  What matters is the number sold, not t
SJB>number of theoretical potential buyers and market size is not the only facto
SJB>involved in that.

I agree. But I still want to see it happen before I believe it.

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