From: "D-P Deng (O-516-282-2197,~{5K6,F=~})" <deng@BUNNY.RHIC.BNL.GOV>
Subject:      FWD: CMFN and abortion right---- the politics of bluffing
Reply-To: "D-P Deng (O-516-282-2197,~{5K6,F=~})" <deng@BUNNY.RHIC.BNL.GOV>
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1992 23:29:37 GMT
Comments: To: china-nt@uga.cc.uga.edu

Please direct all your responses to the author. Thank you.


------- Forwarded Message

From: Eddie Cheng <echeng@phys.psu.edu>
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 92 14:49:35 EST

=============================================

                CMFN and abortion right
                        ------- the politics of bluffing

        Abortion right has not been a hot issue in American politics
until the feminism movement achieved the "Roe vs. Wade" in the 70s.
Although the moral conservatives and religious forces had been tough
on abortion issue before that, most mainstream politicians did not
care and were not so bothered by it.

        Not until "Roe vs. Wade" secured the abortion right.

        And it happened about the same time the Republican party was
in deep trouble following the Watergate scandel and a Democratic
party domination appearing on the horizon.  Republicans were in a
desperate mode to find a course uniting their fragmented pieces
and dividing the opponents.  Hence came the resurgence of religeous
right-wing, the birth of "Moral Majority", and the conspiracy of
abortion right issue.

        The stratege of using abortion right issue is based on the
politics of bluffing.  It works with the existing situation that
abortion right is legally secured but vulnerable to moral attacks.
Under such circumstance, politicians can safely waving the "pro-life"
flags and condemning abortion rights without bearing the risk to
live up to its consequence.  (This is reflected by the "blobber"
VP Quayle had when asked about his own daughter's hypothetical
abortion decision.)

        It worked dramatically for a decade or so.  It reboosted the
moral of the Republican party and successfully splitted Democrats
and their supporters with its seemingly tremendous moral power.
Suddenly abortion became a default question for each and every
politican or even public figure who dares to seek any position or
influence.  It is a sword that can only hurt the opponent but not
oneself.

        However, with its bluffing nature, it backfired when it
approaches its edge of succedding.  After 12 years of Republican
rule and consistent conservative Supreme Court appointees, "Roe vs.
Wade" came under serious risk this year.  Anti-abortion right can
no longer be a bluffing, but a realistic possibility.  If Roe is
to be overturned, Quayle would have lost his escape clause to answer
the hypothetical question.

        Under this new circumstance, Democratics are reunited (and
silented their own faction like Governor Casey) and Republicans and
their supporters become deeply splitted.  Moral slogans have now to
give way to reality check.  Right now, Republican right wing is
meeting in DC while moderate Republican governors are meeting in
Wisconsin.  A war between the two over the abortion issue is immenient.

                                ****            ****            ****

        China's CMFN is a similar conspiracy of bluffing politics.
It could work only when everyone knows that it would not become a
reality.  In fact, it worked very well against both CG and Bush with
Bush's assured veto.  After three years of bluffing, however, it is
now also reaching its moment of truth.



         Eddie

------- End of Forwarded Message
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