HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: odd questions
Date: 28 Sep 92 20:23:31 GMT
Organization: Department of Industrial Engineering

Thus spake TW.N82@isumvs.iastate.edu (BOB.PEDERSEN):

>1)  Andre Dawson got his 2500th hit in a game that threatened to be
>a rainout.  Would his hit have counted if the game had been called
>before it became official?

No.

>2) Is there a single published source with all the game scores for a
>season?  (i don't mean different issues of sporting news, eg, bu t
>-one volume_)

No.  The closest thing I can think of would be the archived stuff being
posted at wuarchive.wust.edu.  I'm not sure if they do box scores or not,
nor how long archived material stays around.

(You did mean box scores, right, and not just "Minnesota 5, Toronto 2"?)

>3) Can switch hitters or switch pitchers (I have heard of at least
>one) change during an at bat?

Yes, and yes.  The pitcher first selects a hand with which to throw, then
the batter is given a choice of side of the plate.  The pitcher may not
switch back until after the pitch, at which point the batter is again given
the option to choose, and so forth...

(I'm not positive on this one.  If a pitcher opted not to wear a glove, or
 had an ambidextrous glove, he could conceivably start his windup with an
 equal probability (in the batter's eyes) of hurling with either hand.  I
 don't think this is a practical worry, but I don't know what the rules have
 to say, either...)

-- 
       David Tate        |"Out of the dugout endlessly swinging,
 dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu | Out of the manager's throat, the sound fundamentals,
 Prof. of Story Problems | Out of the six-month season..."            
 Member ORSA, TIMS, SABR | 	Walt "Lefty" Whitman
From: hbrooks@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu (Harold_Brooks)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: AL Rookie of Year Award?
Date: 30 Sep 92 16:28:20 GMT
Article-I.D.: news.BvEGFB.J16
Organization: NSSL

In article <1acj2oINNl7k@uwm.edu> paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger) writes:
>In article <1992Sep30.031636.10796@midway.uchicago.edu> thf2@midway.uchicago.edu writes:
>>Do you mean to say that the Brewers would be 40-120 without their baserunning?
>
>    No, but 72-90 wouldn't be out of the question.
>
>>>    directly, but indirectly there have been several. And if you take all of
>>>    Milwaukee's offensive attributes and keep them the same except for the
>>>    baserunning part, and trade that for Boston's baserunning ability, then
>>>    yeah, I think they'd be about 20 games worse.
>>
>>You're saying, then, in effect, that the Brewers are *worse* than the
>>Red Sox, except for the fact that they're better baserunners.  (Milwaukee's
>>19.5 games ahead of the Sox.)
>
>     No, I'm saying that if you leave all of Milwaukee's stats the same,
>     (HR, BA, etc) and substitute Rivera for Listach, Clark for Molitor,
>     etc., when running the bases, Milwaukee's performance would be much
>     worse to the tune of about 20 games. 
>
>>Do you really think that baserunning is the *only* difference between
>>Milwaukee and Boston?)
>
>    No, I think batting average and plenty of other things factor into
>    it. I wasn't proposing a team-for-team trade at any place other than
>    the basepaths.

You're contradicting yourself.  You give the Brewers' baserunning credit
for more games than the difference between them and Boston and then say
that they aren't a worse team without the baserunning.  Those two
statements don't make sense next to each other.  Could you please recon-
cile them for us?  If there are more differences than the baserunning
and baserunning is worth 20 games, then why aren't the Brewers a lot
further ahead of the Red Sox?

Harold
-- 
Harold Brooks                    hbrooks@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu
National Severe Storms Laboratory/CIMMS (Norman, OK)
Cal Ripken   April-August   .248 BA  .354 SLG  .328 OBA
Cal Ripken (1 Sep.-29 Sep.) .245 BA  .340 SLG  .279 OBA
From: fhs@email.sp.unisys.com (Fred Sobottka)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Gary Sheffield
Date: 24 Sep 1992 13:07:17 -0500
Organization: Paramax -  Eagan, MN

Who did the Brewers get in the Sheffield trade anyway??
From: gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: the mother of all statistical analyses.
Date: 2 Oct 92 06:03:13 GMT
Organization: Somewhere in Hoboken

yes.

STATS, inc.  that company that has the bill james stuff, has them.

i believe they'll also sell them, but it costs lotsa bucks.

but, being a student at notre dame, i'm sure you have that much money.

- bob gaj
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: steph@cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson)
Subject: Re: AL Rookie of Year Award?
Organization: University of Illinois, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Urbana, IL
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 21:51:12 GMT

In <1992Sep25.050240.2328@panix.com> spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira) writes:

>But the basic "problem" with Lofton is this: the best centerfielder in
>baseball probably isn't worth as much defensively as the worst defensive
>shortstop.  

This seems too strong to me.  If we can use the concept of "replacement
level defense" for a moment, I would suspect the worst defensive shortstop
in the league would convert *less* plays into outs than his replacement
would, and is hurting his team defensively.  The best centerfielder in baseball
converts *more* plays into outs than his replacement would, and his helping
his team defensively.  So the best centerfielder would be far more valuable
defensively than the worst shortstop.

Considering the greater amount of chances, it is entirely possible that an
average (and presumably above replacement level) shortstop is more valuable
than the best centerfielder.  This may be the case with Listach & Lofton.

Thought to ponder:  if Frank Thomas (with existing range, arm, and glovework)
were placed at shortstop, would he really be more valuable defensively than
Wally Joyner or Mark McGwire?
--
Dale J. Stephenson |*| (steph@cs.uiuc.edu) |*| Baseball fanatic

  "It is considered good to look wise, especially when not 
   overburdened with information" -- J. Golden Kimball
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: roger@crux.Princeton.EDU (Roger Lustig)
Subject: Re: Lead off walks....
Originator: news@nimaster
Reply-To: roger@astro.princeton.edu (Roger Lustig)
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 22:06:40 GMT

In article <1992Sep30.153621.1287@ccsvax.sfasu.edu> z_copeab@ccsvax.sfasu.edu writes:
>In article <1992Sep30.155207.5089@adobe.com>, snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols) writes:
>> In article <lcifu4INNh9c@cronkite> andy@misha.Central.Sun.COM writes:
>>>Watching the Sox/Twins game last night,  Hawk & Wimpy (the Sox Commentators/homers)
>>>made a comment that a leadoff walk tends to score more often than say a leadoff
>>>hit. Probably not as often as a leadoff homerun... :-)
>>>
>>>I assume that their comment was statistically baseless,  except for the 
>>>inning where the leadoff walk happend to score in this game, however,
>>>does a stat hound out in net.land have any info on this ?  
>> 
>> Effect of first event in inning, both leagues, 1984-1991
>> 
>> Leadoff		Prob of >= 1 run	Avg. number of runs
>> -------------------------------------------------------------
>> single		.428			.855
>> walk			.432			.865
>> error			.441			.867
>> out			.156			.255
>> other			.742		       1.215

>	Okay, time for bad-but-possible-explaination-time:

>	The avergae pitcher gives up a hit an inning. If a pitcher gives up a
>single to lead off the inning, there is a good chance there won't be another 
>hit that inning. 

WAAAAAAAUGH!

"To avoid terrorist attacks, carry a bomb in your suitcase.  After all,
the odds of a bomb are a million to one, so the odds of TWO bombs on the
same plane must be a TRILLION to one."

Nope, sorry.  It doesn't work like that.  A pitcher gives up one hit
for every three outs, right?  

So, how many outs does the pitcher have left after that leadoff hit?

And howcome league batting averages RISE with men on base?  If your
balancing effect existed, they'd have to fall.

>OTOH, if the pitcher leads off yeilding a walk, the batting 
>team still has that hit they are likely to pick up later in the inning. Since

They still have it either way.  The pitcher still has to face as many
batters (barring a DP).

>it is slightly easier to score a run with a hit than without, a walked leadoff
>man will score slightly more often. 

Do we know this?  Or is the observed .004 difference merely noise?  (Hint:
probably the latter.)

>A leadoff hitter reaching on an error has
>basically just given his team (or rather, the fielder has) an extra out to play
>with, so is even more likely to score.

Huh?  An error means you get four outs that inning?  First I'd heard of
it.

Actually, if there IS something to explain, I'd explain it by pointing
to the high position in the batting order of those who walk: they have
hitters behind them.  Maybe.   As for errors, reaching on a leadoff error
often has to do with speed.  It's something that Vince Coleman, for instance,
used to do a lot.  And Vince on first is more likely to score than some
other guys on first.

But remember: there's no point explaining something that's probably
just noise anyway.

Roger
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: franjion@spot.Colorado.EDU (John Franjione)
Subject: Re: McCaskill v. McDowell
Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder
Distribution: na
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 18:11:45 GMT

thf2@quads.uchicago.edu (Citecheck Hell) writes:

>In article <1992Sep29.175611.9964@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU> drw3l@delmarva.evsc.Virginia.EDU (David "I already have a middle name" Walker) writes:
>>Compare Jack McDowell to his teammate Kirk McCaskill.

[stuff deleted]

>Dr. Tate has pointed out that, while there might not be such a thing
>as clutch hitting, there almost certainly is "clutch" pitching.  Pitchers

Could this argument for clutch pitching be presented, please?

>are affected by having runners on, some more so than others.  I can
>all but guarantee you that McCaskill pitches much worse with runners
>on base than McDowell, but probably better (if not much better) with
>the bases empty.

>Realize, too, that for batters, OBA and SA are just ways of getting to
>what we're interested in--runs.  In the case of pitchers, we already have
>that information in ERA, so it's less important to extract backwards.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

>Also, there might be some luck involved...

This is the big question.  Stathead types will look at batting stats
and determine that "team X has scored more runs than they should have,
given their raw stats", and reason, correctly in my opinion, that the
team was lucky.  The reasoning is often extended, again correctly IMO,
that Team X should not expect such luck next year, and are perhaps due
for a worse season.

However, I've never seen, except for one of the BJAbstracts (1986?),
anyone consider the "luck" factor on defense.  No one ever looks at
the expected runs allowed (derived from, say, RC) for a team and
compare it to the actual runs allowed, and base conclusions on this.
More often, I am told that computing RC allowed is not so important,
because we have what we need in ERA and RA (as Ted Frank states
above).

If a team allows less runs than would be predicted by their opponents
offensive stats, is this due to a real ability, or to luck?  Ted seems
to be implying that this is due to real ability ("clutch pitching").
If this were true, does this imply that the reason a team underperforms
on offense is because they have faced an unusually large number of
clutch pitchers?

I haven't done a study myself, but based on the clutch/choke
hitting discussions here on the net, I would think that there is
neither clutch pitching nor clutch hitting.

John Franjione
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: rickert@NeXTwork.Rose-Hulman.Edu (John H. Rickert)
Subject: running <-> errors?
Organization: Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 20:21:36 GMT


I stand corrected (and amazed 8-O)

	In a recent post someone (Paul R. Krueger?) claimed 
that the Brewers running game was causing their opponents to 
make lots of throwing errors.
	I looked this up in TSN and found that the Brewers 
had committed the 2nd fewest errors (82), but their opponents
had committed the second most errors (131).
	Running this down further I decided to see what the 
'correlation coefficient' between SB attempts and 
opponents errors is. 
For the AL in '92 the correlation was +.58 
(without Mil. it was +.43)
	I repeated the calculations for AL and NL '91,
but left those at home. The correlation was about +.2-+.3.
So there does seem to be a slight correlation.

I still don't think it translates into 20 wins.

john rickert
rickert@nextwork.rose-hulman.edu
Go Brewers!
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: dbc@tc.fluke.COM (Dan Carson)
Subject: Re: Bonds "choke"?
Organization: John Fluke Mfg. Co., Inc., Everett, WA
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1992 19:07:14 GMT

In article <48202@shamash.cdc.com> jblixt@mips.COM (jon blixt) writes:
>First of all, I'm not saying Barry Bonds choked.
>
>I do, however, have a fairly simple question.
>
>Is there such a thing called choking and does it occur?

This question has been argued repeatedly.  There are two answers:

1) "Of course there is, and if you don't agree, you've never played the game!"

2) "Nope, if you don't agree, you haven't looked at the numbers!"

These answers are both right.  Choking exists, but it goes away as you play
more, to the point that it isn't measurable at the major league level.
(Or at least no one on the net has been able to measure it.)  The same can be
said of streak hitting.  There, now we don't have to discuss it for months
on end again, okay?

Dan Carson
John Fluke Mfg.
Everett, WA
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: Morris: more fuel for this debate
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Distribution: na
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 92 19:22:00 GMT

In article <1992Oct6.144116.1656@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>
>Well, Jim Abbott, with 2.77 ERA (~1.3 Lower than Jack's) went 7 - 15! So, if
>we assume that the PyT is a reasonable predictor, he doesn't look much worse
>for the Angels than Abbott!

4 additional losses is a lot.

In addition, I was assuming he would get the same number of decisions that he
got in Toronto.  The Angels bullpen blew a few for the Abbmeister.

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: the wet dreams of a yankee fan...
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1992 13:18:02 GMT

In article <92279.204207RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes:
>yanks in '93, babe.  all the way.
>
>dave cone, brien taylor, sam militelo, sounds like a pretty awesome top
>three.  wickman might not be too bad either, and sanderson is an adequate
>fifth.

What about Melido Perez?  Besides, Brien Taylor isn't ready yet.  You
can write him in for '94 or '95, but not '93.

>the outfield cranks.  roberto kelly, danny tartabull, bernie williams,
>gerald williams... (one of 'em dh, obviously).

I'm still not sold on Gerald Williams.  Let's see how he does after
pitchers learn that he'll swing at anything.  Has he had a major
league walk yet?

>bam bam at third.  hopefully the management will realize that charlie hayes
>just plain bites.

Not likely.  Current rumors have Meulens playing in Colorado next
year.  Hayes put up decent triple-crown stats this year, and played
solid defense.

>and of course, frank howard is by far the coolest hitting coach imaginable.
>i don't know how good he is at his job, but the guy is just so cool.

:-)

>yanks in five over whatever nl team shows up at the world series.

Not with what you described so far.  But if you add Barry Bonds to the
mix?  Maybe.

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
Make outs, not walks!					tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Clemens four Cy Young!
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: A dumb question
Organization: DSG, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 92 15:12:16 GMT

In article <1992Oct6.131023.19992@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>
>Will LaRussa be starting Weiss in the playoffs?  It seems that he
>would have equally good defense with Bordick/Browne as with
>Weiss/Bordick (Weiss has reportedly lost a step), and Browne certainly
>has had the better bat this year!

But Lance Blankenship has had an even better bat...

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (claudius@leland.stanford.edu)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: TW.N82@isumvs.iastate.edu (BOB.PEDERSEN)
Subject: odd questions
Organization: Iowa State University, Ames IA
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 16:29:21 GMT

SOME OBSCURE QUESTIONS, WITH TYPOS

I'm getting to the point whe re the people around me are not able
to answer all my baseball questions:

1)  Andre Dawson got his 2500th hit in a game that threatened to be
a rainout.  Would his hit have counted if the game had been called
before it became official?

2) Is there a single published source with all the game scores for a
season?  (i don't mean different issues of sporting news, eg, bu t
-one volume_)

3) Can switch hitters or switch pitchers (I have heard of at least
one) change during an at bat?

--
Bob Pedersen
Recent graduate and flunkie, Iowa State University
Future Library Science student, University of Iowa
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Citecheck Hell)
Subject: Re: AL ROY - Cal Eldred?
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 05:20:07 GMT

In article <joeb.717873107@cserver> joeb@cserver.plexus.com (Joe Brotz) writes:
>The debate the last few weeks over the AL Rookie of the Year has 
>centered on Pat Listach and Kenny Lofton, who are of course deserving
>candidates. 
>
>How about Cal Eldred? Currently he's 11-1, ~1.5 ERA, and
>has a 10 game winning streak. Without a doubt, the basic argument 
>against Eldred is that he's put up his numbers for only half a year
>(he was called up right after the All-Star break). 

Well, let's be fair.  Let's take the other half season and fill it
with stats from a player called Replacement Value.

Replacement Value	 5-7	5.00 ERA
Cal Eldred		11-1	1.50 ERA
----
Total			16-8	3.25 ERA*

(actually that ERA would probably be lower--R.V. wouldn't have
stayed in for as many innings per start at Eldred did.)

Is a 16-8, 3.25 ERA pitcher better than Listach or Lofton?  My vote
is "Yep."  For one thing, it's "rookie of the year," not "most valuable
rookie."

>So the big question is this, How much time do you have
>to put in to be a legitimate contender? 

Didn't Horner win one year with only 90 games?  I vaguely recall
McCovey winning with a sensational half-season when he put up
Plantier-style numbers.
-- 
           .. . . .  .  .   .    .     .     .    .   .  .  . . . ..
          ted frank | thf2@midway.uchicago.edu | standard disclaimers
         the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: How silly can the mediots get?
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 07:20:55 GMT

Yes, from the same people who brought you the 40/40 club, and the 
300/30/50 club, comes Brady Anderson's "AL record", as reported by
clari.sport.baseball:

Brady Anderson is the first American Leaguer to hit 20 HR, drive in 75
runs, and steal 50 bases in the same season.

(In case you cared, he's the 8th player in major league history to do this.)

BTW, Rickey Henderson's "best" years by these standards:

1985: 24/72/80
1986: 28/74/87  Missed it by *that* much.
1990: 28/61/65

Bonds did it once, in 1990.  33/114/52.
Eric Davis, 1987 (37/100/50)
Ryne Sandberg, 1985 (26/83/54)

and, of course,
Alfredo Griffin, 1986 (4/51/33)   :-)

These are the only seasons by active players that I can find.

This has got to be one of the most meaningless compilations ever, but it
is sort of interesting -- it's really tough to achieve these numbers.
If you've got that much speed, you're usually batting #1, which makes it
hard to drive in runs.  If you've got that much power, you're in the
middle of the lineup, where stealing isn't usually an option. 

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1993 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Roland Hemond: SIGN BARRY BONDS!!!!!!!!
Vote Clinton/Gore '92.   Four more months!
From: genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Morris Season begins Wednesday
Date: 6 Oct 92 16:05:28 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: Department of Industrial Engineering

Thus spake brea9430@mach1.wlu.ca (breadner kenneth cecil joseph u):

>Ah, here we go again. Are you trying to say that A pitcher who went 21-6 on
>the year had a "minimal contribution"? Geez, how many wins do you need to
>really help your team?

Ah, here we go again.  Are you trying to say that Morris, all by himself with
no help, won 21 games and lost six?  That *would* be impressive, I agree.

What is it with W/L records, anyway?  The idea of assigning one player a "win"
or "loss" makes hockey's plus/minus system look like rocket science.  A pitcher
contributes precisely to the extent that he makes his team MORE LIKELY to win,
because he can't control > 50% of what goes into winning.  If his team scores
gobs of runs and plays great defense, he doesn't have to do much at all to
get credited with 21 "W"s.  What he mostly has to do is pitch tons of innings,
which Morris does/did, and for which I give him the credit he is due.  I'd
take him on my staff, sure, but I wouldn't delude myself about which of my
players did the most to put "W"s in the box score next to Morris's name.

-- 
       David Tate        |"Out of the dugout endlessly swinging,
 dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu | Out of the manager's throat, the sound fundamentals,
 Prof. of Story Problems | Out of the six-month season..."            
 Member ORSA, TIMS, SABR | 	Walt "Lefty" Whitman
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball