From: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Indians (was: Re: My picks, AL/NL East)
Date: 21 Dec 1992 15:47:48 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: sfh@po.CWRU.Edu (Steven F. Hubbard)
NNTP-Posting-Host: thor.ins.cwru.edu


In a previous article, cej0@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (CHARLES EDWARD JAMES) says:

>>As for Cleveland, I don't see it.  I know they've got all these great
>>prospects, but...  Alomar isn't anything special.  He wasn't in his
>>Rookie of the Year year, and he isn't going to be either.  Lofton is
>>okay, but not great, and I don't see him as improving on last year.
>>They haven't figured out which of their outfielders can play (Mark
>>Whiten) and which can't (Thomas Howard!, Glenallen Hill.)  I do like Belle
>>a lot, but his BA isn't going to improve because his temper did.
>>
>>And they think Bob Ojeda is their #2 starter.  'Nuff said.
>
>OK, Alomar (compared to Nokes) is something special.  There aren't too many
>other catchers in the AL better than Alomar (judgement still out on Jays
>catcher (forget name)).

   What do you base this on?  Defensively, you might be right -- he's
certainly one of the best along with Ivan Rodriguez.  If he can raise his
offense to the level of his rookie year he'll be very valuable.  The offense
isn't that spectacular, but his catching is.

>  Lofton is just starting to get into knowing the AL
>pitchers.  Watch him on a break from first.  He has the quickest move to
>second today.  He will steal about 80 (I will say at least 65 this year).

   Again, like Alomar, it looks like you're saying this based on one season.
He has a very quick jump, but I can't really say it's the best in the majors.
I doubt you can rightfully say that either without having seen Grissom, Sanders,
Nixon, maybe Gilkey, or Listach play every day.  If Lofton steals 80, it would
be amazing, but I think 60 is a much more realistic figure.  It's not just a 
matter of Lofton getting into knowing the AL pitchers.  The pitchers and 
catchers can also get to know him.  Why did Alex Cole suddenly lose his great
ability to steal bases?  It always looked like the defenses had him figured out.


>They have their outfield fairly set Belle in left (as long as he doesn't lag
>on D, if so Hill will play LF), Lofton in CF, and either Howard or Hill in RF.

   And Whiten plays where?  Howard and Hill simply don't have the arms to play 
right field.  Have you seen Hill play at all?  He's terrible.  He misjudges
fly balls and makes lollipop throws back to the infield.  Howard misjudges his
share as well, but Mike Hargrove maintains that Howard's the best defensive
OF on the team.  Even if that's true, Howard should NEVER bat second.  I
think his OBP was .303 last year.  Whiten has his share of problems too.  He
seems to be a little overconfident in his arm, and he tends to neglect his
cutoff man.  Even still, he's a decent right fielder, and he's only 25.  The
Tribe should give him at least one more year to see if he can improve his
offensive skills.


> Ojeda WON'T be the #2 starter.  At best the #3 or #4.  Nagy will be #1, Cook
> #2 and then maybe Mesa or Embree.  The Tribe will finish in the top 3, top 2
> if the pitching clicks.

   Okay.  I'm a big Indians fan, but this is simply wrong.  The team signed
Ojeda and Bieliecki presumably to keep Embree, Mliki, Ogea, Byrd, etc. in
the minor leagues for another season.  The rotation right now is Nagy, Ojeda
(the Indians have said he's #2 at this point), Mesa, Bieliecki, Cook/Scudder.
For the first time in years, this is a staff of actual major leaguers -- 
mediocre though they might be.

   The bullpen still has Olin, Lilliquist, Power, Plunck, and Wickander.  It's
hard to expect this group to play as well as they did in '92.  If they don't,
the team will be in trouble.

  For the Indians to contend, they need drastic immediate improvement from the
Whiten, Lewis, Thome, Alomar, and the starters (except Nagy of course).  I don't
that happening in '93.  85 wins is a reasonable goal, and with Toronto, 
Milwaukee, Baltimore, and New York around, 3rd place will be hard to come by.

SfH 



-- 
Steven F. Hubbard                ** "You can't squeeze water out of a rock
Case Western Reserve University  **      or a turnip, or whatever." 
Department of Physics            **  
Cleveland, OH 44106              **  -- John Madden