From: pgf@srl01.cacs.usl.edu ("Phil G. Fraering")
Subject: Another in the continuing Golden Oldies series
X-Added: Forwarded by Space Digest
Organization: [via International Space University]
Original-Sender: isu@VACATION.VENARI.CS.CMU.EDU
Distribution: sci
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1992 21:42:20 GMT

Here's another. Commentary to follow, article begins here:"

	The discussion about private business getting into the space
business in a serious way DOES belong here, because it falls into the
scope of SPACE digest (I feel), and there hasn't been much traffic on
this list recently anyway (things need to be livened up around here).

        To wit:

        While opening space to non-governmental use has potential
dangers, (one can see cost-cutting on safety hardware for a priviate
shuttle, leading to a launch pad explosion or reentry burnup), leaving
it exclusivly in the hands of the government (especially the military)
makes it a political hostage.

        Let me advance another scenario that can happen if the
bureaucratic hold on space is not broken:

        1983 - Furthur budget cuts for NASA cause cancellation of fourth
               Shuttle orbiter. Funds for completion of Discovery (the
               third orbiter) are in doubt. The Air Force steps in and
               pays for the third and fourth orbiters. Congress readily
               approves this "national defense" expenditure.

        1984 - Increased doubts about Shuttle availability and
               reliability (due to trimmed operational funds) lead
               potential customers to use expendable vechiles instead
               (Ariadane for example), cutting income from cargo loads.

        1985 - The Congress wonders why the Shuttle is in such red ink
               and declares "The taxpayers of America cannot afford to 
               subsidize this money-losing boondoggle". NASA gives some 
               under-booked shuttle flights to the Air Force.

        1987 - Shuttle use has fully replaced expendable rockets for the
               military. Since the military is continually launching new
               spy satellites, plus testing particle-beam weapons,
               Vandenberg AFB is keeping busy while Cape Canerveral is 
               winding down.

        1988 - The Shuttle is declared "too vital for national defense
               to be used for other things", since the military now
               leans heavily on it (and they have the bucks to
               do so), so NASA is reduced to buying cargo bay space from
               the Air Force to do science.

        I admit for this pessimistic scenario to take place, a lot of
things have to go wrong in the next year or two. I neither expect nor
desire these things to happen. However, if space remains, as it is now,
exclusively in the hands of the government, this CAN happen, and there
will be no failsafe against it.

        A solution is to open up space to private speculation (with
proper licensing and [gasp] regulations). In the interim, the money for
the R&D must continue to flow from the taxpayers to build the basic
technology for space industrialization (the Shuttle).

        Alright, folks.... let's see those brickbats fly!
-------

Phil here again: what do we know from here in the future?
Basically, the shuttle has turned out to be an expensive
waste of money that Proxmire couldn't even conceive of,
and we can't even get rid of the danged thing if that's
what it took to save the space program.

I mean in terms of having a space program that does something,
not just spend money...

-- 
Phil Fraering
"...drag them, kicking and screaming, into the Century of the Fruitbat."
<<- Terry Pratchett, _Reaper Man_
Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.astro,alt.sci.planetary