From: eggertj@moses.atc.ll.mit.edu (Jim Eggert x6127 g41)
Subject: Re: WHERE DO THE "palestinians" COME FROM?
Reply-To: eggertj@atc.ll.mit.edu
Organization: MIT Lincoln Lab - Group 41
	<1993Jan7.223725.29938@bony1.bony.com>
	<EGGERTJ.93Jan10011532@moses.atc.ll.mit.edu>
	<1993Jan12.014454.5141@bony1.bony.com>
Date: 12 Jan 93 11:39:37

In article <1993Jan12.014454.5141@bony1.bony.com> jake@bony1.bony.com (Jake Livni) writes:
>   >You see, Israel is not outnumbered by an order of magnitude in either
>   >defense budgets or in standing army size (1978 figures).
>
>   An order of magnitude doesn't mean 10.00000 : 1.00000, but that is a
>   scientific argument.  Assuming your numbers to accurately reflect the
>   situation, Israel is still outnumbered by 5:1 and 8:1, just in these 
>   2 measures alone, not to mention aircraft and tanks.

Like hell.  An order of magnitude means a factor of 10:1.  Period.

If you don't trust the numbers I posted (admittedly they were from
1978), then please post your own.  I didn't mention aircraft and tanks
because I didn't have the figures handy.  If you do, please post them.

>   >Also, Israel does not
>   >rely on a standing army for her defense, so the 165,000 number is a
>   >gross underestimate of Israel's real army.
>
>   Thanks for helping the gentle readers understand the extreme handicap
>   Israel experiences in trying to run a modern economy while
>   simultaneously defending itself from "the invading hordes" surrounding 
>   it.  As some of our Arab posters have noted, if there are 3,000,000
>   Jews in Israel, then there are 3,000,000 enemy soldiers to kill.

It also means that Israel's army doesn't number 165,000, but probably
something closer to 1,000,000.  Then the 8:1 ratio of Arab:Israeli
standing armies becomes a 1.3:1 ratio of Arab:Israeli mobilized armies.

>   Thus, Israel might be expected to be overrun by an assault from a single
>   Arab country in four days, not the single day it took Kuwait to give
>   up the ghost.  Yet, Israel has withstood much larger forces for much
>   longer - and won.  Perhaps the Israelis know what they are doing in
>   managing their defenses.

This argument is full of it.  The ratio of armies would be 14:1 in the
case of Iraq:Kuwait, but 1:3 (taking the 1,000,000 mobilized figure
for the Israeli army) for the worst case of a single Arab nation
attacking Israel, that of Egypt:Israel.  (In this case, one would
expect that not only would the attack be repulsed, but a counterattack
could result in significant loss of Egyptian territory.  This in fact
did happen, resulting in the loss of the Sinai.)  Of course, Egypt and
Israel are at peace, so even this case is now nonsense.  Take the
worst realistic assumption, that Syria attacks Israel without warning,
(somehow going through Lebanon, I guess), then the ratio of soldiers
would be 1.36:1 Syria:Israel, even if Syria could move its whole army
to the battle theater.  This simply would not be enough to provide
victory for the Syrians even if the two sides were similarly equipped
and trained, which they aren't.

It is clear that the Israeli military is indeed extremely competent,
perhaps the best in the world.  But the numbers indicate that its foes
just aren't as powerful as you would have us believe.  Certainly not
an order of magnitude more numerous or better funded than Israel.

--
=Jim  eggertj@atc.ll.mit.edu (Jim Eggert)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.arabic