From: cshi@cs.ulowell.edu (Chunde Shi)
Subject: Re: More distortation by Westerners and facts
Organization: University of Massachusetts at Lowell Computer Science
Date: Tue, 7 Apr 1992 03:12:19 GMT

In article <1992Mar30.145525.18345@daffy.cs.wisc.edu> kniaz@cat5.cs.wisc.edu (Joel Kniaz) writes:
>In article <1992Mar30.034035.1465@ulowell.ulowell.edu> cshi@cs.ulowell.edu (Chunde Shi) writes:
>>1. Distortion:
>>    China's ICBM is not accurate and is too slow to avoid being shut down by
>>     antimissle missle.
>>   Fact:
>>      I remember that China declared an area in sorth pacific, 30 killometers
>>       in radius as missle landing site to warn commercial ships avoid the arrea      before the ICBM testing. given the safety ratio nomally for a bridage is
>>      3(the missle should be higher). the Chinese millitart should have 
>>      confidence of accuracy of the missle at least 10 killometers. To hit a
>>       city with nuke war head, how much more accurate do you want than that? 
>>       ICBM is ballastic missle, to beat the gravity by speed only it should be
>>      faster than cruise missle(like Tumahawk used in Gulf war), cruise missle
>>      has wings for lifting. cruise missles important part of USA's missle
>>      weapenary, Chinese ICBM should not have speed vulnerability. 
>
>	It's true that a missile with an accuracy of only 10 kilometers 
>	could get close enough to destroy a city, but that would be merely 
>	a strategic weapon and not of tactical value in the sense that it 
>	would have zero ability to prevent the launch of weapons by the 
>	other side.   In order to prevent a nuclear response, a weapon 
>	must be able to land within very close proximity to the more
>	hardened targets: missile silos, command bunkers, etc,. 
Given the experience of Gulf War, during which as soon as the War Started all
the fixed site Iraw missles were nocked off, but despite the absolute U.S. air
control over Iraq sky, the mobile missles were very effective in avoiding being
attacked, People will emphasis on mobile misiles(on truck, on trains, on subs)
and mobile command bunkers, not even to say future U.S. enemy's sky may not
easy to being controlled as that of Iraq's.
>
>	Cruise missiles also have the advantage of being virtually undetectable
>	before they have reached their target areas,  increasing greatly the 
>	effectiveness of their smaller warheads.
>
>>1. Distortation:
>>     China-Vietname clash in 1979, Vietname represaled Chinese troops.
>>   Fact: Chinese troops suffered havy casulties at the beginning of the War, 
>>     because massive Chinese sodiers because easy targets for those Vietnamese 
>>     soldiers hide behind well built garrisons in mountainous area, Chinese
>>    tanks could not function well. Chinese millitary changed technique of using     small groups of Army to dig out Vietmese in tunnels, or blast
>>   the hill to flat with artillary before trying to take the hill. Finally took
>>    last garrison Lian Shan, between Liang Shan and Hanoi are flat plain region
>>    Chinese tanks could roll over to Vietname capital much easier than digging
>>    out those Vietmese in the mountains before. Chinese retreat because (1)
>>    fear of Soviet strike from back; (2) Chinese has show Vietnamese Hanoi is 
>>    not protected.  
>
>	I think the key here is that the Chinese were intelligent enough
>	(unlike some other world powers) to get the hell out of Vietnam
Chinese millitary did not have the intention to get deep into Vietname.(actully
40 kilometers inside border of Vietname). there were 400 thousand Chinese troopsalong the border, half of them went into Vietname and another half stayed on 
China side of border for unexpected reenforement. Vietname had 1 million troops.If Chinese millitary's target was to take Vietname,(Given the ratio of 3:1,
3 is needed to attack 1 for conventional war fare), more troops should been sent.
Stationed on Vietnamese side of border were not boder guids. they were battle
harded, equiped with best of Chinese light Wapenary available at the time(
because of Vietname War). U.S. millitary did not have much experience on
high mountain fighting. South Vietname are relatively flat comparing to North
vietname closing to border. Tanks could not roll, artillary is hard to drag up
to high mountains. Vietname at the time had dug in(rocky mountains). Both sides
had to depend on light Wapenaries to fight which Chinese side did not have much
advantage. Think about how frustrated of Soviets in Afghnnistan where rabels
had much lower numbers, without protection bushs, trees, fought a tough
in hight mountains with Soviets.
>	and to avoid a war of attrition.  It's obvious, both historically
>	and strategically, that the defense of Vietnam was not based on 
>	holding the industrial or population centers: the Chinese could 
>	have occupied the cities for a time, but their losses to Vietnamese
>	irregular forces would have eventually become prohibitive. The U.S.,
>	also, could easily have declared victory and withdrawn.
>
>>2. Distaotation:
>>     Mao had hard time domestically at  the end of 1960s, he started to
>>     seek border conflict with Soviet to turn attension away.
>>   Fact:
>>     I read before, an american wrote that China and Soviet accuse each side
>>     initiated border clash, the clash spot were mostly have a major road on
>>     Soviet side, indicating Soviet picked the fight.
>
>	I'm not sure I see how this shows that the Soviets 'picked the fight.'
If I pick a fight, as did in the case of Nazy Germany and ex soviet with Japan
and Nazy's, I will pick place where I have most advantage over enemy, one 
advatage is transportation, especially for brief, limitted border clask, I can 
contrate absolute supority over enemy at short time, even enemy found the move,
 it will be hard for them to contrate counter strengh in short peiod of time. 
Even if the clash expanded It will be easier for my side to reenforce than enemy
side. So one of the important consideration of selecting a stike spot will
be road on my side and not on enemy side. 
>
>    ____________________________________________________________________
>   (__________________________________________________________________(@)
>    / "Lo, Though I walk through the valley in the shadow of death,    /
>    \    I fear not!                                                   \
>    /  For I am the biggest son-of-a-bitch in the valley."             /
>    \__________________________________________________________________\
>    / My favorite expression:          __i                             /
>    \                         yI(L)b(a)ll e[Mu]                        \
>    ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
>    \ Joel Kniaz   kniaz@garfield.cs.wisc.edu  kniaz@jomby.cs.wisc.edu \
>    /__________________________________________________________________/
>   (_________________________________________________________________(@)


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