From: mcbean@vax.oxford.ac.uk
Newsgroups: rec.sport.cricket
Subject: Re: Ranking the international sides
Date: 21 Jan 93 20:26:36 GMT
Organization: Oxford University VAX 6620

In article <1jj97eINNk9p@ford.ee.up.ac.za>, barnard@ford.ee.up.ac.za (Etienne Barnard) writes:
> In the past couple of weeks a number of posters have indicated
> possible rankings of the test-playing nations in tests and
> limited-over internationals. Such a ranking will often not be wholly
> satisfactory, because of the differences in playing conditions in
> different countries. I think it is more useful to distinguish between
> home and away "rankings".

Very interesting.  I think two points for an away win, 1.5 for a home win/away
draw, and 1 for a home draw would be rather interesting for tests.  Similarly
two points for a neutral ODI win (WSC, WC etc) three for an away and 1.5 for a
home win might give it a realistic weighting.

> 
> One way of doing so is to list, for every pair of countries, which
> should be expected to win playing at home and away, respectively.
> Below I have compiled a matrix containing my judgements on these
> matters. I have tried to go by recent matches that have actually been
> played but
> (a) when the most recent results seem like an aberration to me, I have
> not stuck to them (e.g. some of Australia's losses in the WC; NZ
> losing to SL in SL with a weakened side);
> (b) when no matches have been played recently, but the outcome seems
> rather certain, I have included my "prediction" (e.g WI vs. SA in SA);
> (c) I have marked a "?" when I do not know the recent results or when
> recent results have been ambivalent, and I do not know of good reasons
> to prefer the one or the other side to win;
> (d) ZIM is not included in the list, to conserve bandwidth.
> 
> This matrix can clearly be converted to a simple ranking by adding, for
> each side, the number of contests it is "expeced to win"; in my
> ratings, this would make WI #1 in both categories (which is probably
> a reasonable conclusion, going by recent form in Australia).

I would rank England as the best OD side, but perhaps I have been seeing to
much of them.  Interesting fact, Aus is the only country to have beaten the WI
in a one-day series in the WI.

> 
> (a) TEST MATCHES
>                            Home team
>       AUS   ENG   IND   NZ    PAK   SA    SL    WI    
>       --------------------------------------------
> AUS   x     AUS   ?     ?     ?     ?     AUS   WI
> ENG   AUS   x     ?     ENG   ?     ?     ENG   WI
> IND   AUS   ENG   x     NZ    PAK   SA    ?     WI
> NZ    AUS   ENG   ?     x     PAK   ?     ?     WI
> PAK   AUS   PAK   ?     PAK   x     PAK   PAK   ?
> SA    AUS   ENG   ?     ?     PAK   x     ?     WI
> SL    AUS   ?     IND   NZ    PAK   ?     x     WI
> WI    AUS   ?     WI    WI    ?     WI    WI    x

This makes for grim reading.  It is clear that there are three bands in test
cricket.  The first is Australia/West Indies followed a bit behind by Pakistan. 
Reason is that Pakistan have yet in recent times to record a victory against
either, and also includes a defeat by Aus.

England is alone in the second band, not good enough to live comfortably with
the big boys (weak bowling attack), but better than the rest.

The final band consists of NZ, SL, IND, SA and ZIM, although probably ZIM
should be given a band all their own.  It must be galling for IND and NZ to be
included with the new boys to test matches, and their supporters have my
sympathy.

> 
> (b) ODI's
>                            Home team
>       AUS   ENG   IND   NZ    PAK   SA    SL    WI    
>       --------------------------------------------
> AUS   x     ?     ?     NZ    PAK   ?     SL    WI
> ENG   AUS   x     ?     ENG   ?     ENG   ENG   WI
> IND   AUS   ENG   x     NZ    PAK   SA    ?     WI
> NZ    AUS   ENG   ?     x     PAK   ?     ?     WI
> PAK   AUS   ENG   ?     PAK   x     PAK   PAK   ?
> SA    AUS   ENG   IND   NZ    PAK   x     SL    WI
> SL    AUS   ?     IND   NZ    PAK   ?     x     WI
> WI    WI    ENG   WI    WI    ?     WI    WI    x

I think you could have safely tipped Aus to beat India and SA at home.  Also WI
have won their last ODI series in PAK.  I am tempted to say that based on
results Pakistan, like India before them were outside chances who peaked at the
right time in the World Cup.

McBean