From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.african
Subject: IPS:GHANA: INSTABILITY FEARED TO FOLLOW PERESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Date: 7 Nov 92 17:38:31 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Title: GHANA: INSTABILITY FEARED TO FOLLOW PERESIDENTIAL ELECTION


an inter press service feature

by obinna anyadike

accra, oct 31 (ips) -- after 11-years of authoritarian rule by
flt lt jerry rawlings, there is increasing concern that ghana's
nov. 3 presidential election will be followed by instability.

the anxiety is best expressed by the business community of
this west african nation of 15 million people that became
independent from britain in 1957.

''we are all very nervous'', says reginald laryea, a young
executive of one of ghana's leading public relations and
marketing firms.

''everything is on hold. there will be no new big projects
initiated for a year at least until the dust settles'', adds
laryea.

importers are hording goods, foreign investors are preferring
to wait and see and nobody is sure what effect the election will
have on the exchange rate.

at the heart of the problem is rawlings himself. a populist,
45-year-old charismatic politician who has staged two
''corrective'' coups, he engenders either fierce loyalty or
loathing among ghanaians.

''if he doesn't win, this country will see a lot of
destabilisation from him and his supporters'', believes osu
lan-johnson, a lecturer at the university of ghana, legon.

''he would take defeat rather bitterly. it would be the
ultimate test of his lip service of being a democrat'',
lan-johnson told ips.

but, according to dan ansah, managing editor of the
opposition newspaper 'the voice': ''rawlings, not being an
incumbent, will be nothing.

''we saw it in 1979 after the handover (to the civilian
regime of dr hilla liman) when he (rawlings) was driving on
his own through the streets''.

it is generaly accepted that without rawlings his national
democratic congress (ndc) party would fall apart. it draws much
of its following from the traditional socialist movement in
ghanaian politics of first president kwame nkrumah, and its
supporters would gravitate toward the parties claiming that
mantle. (more/ips)


ghana: instability (2)

defeated, rawlings would not even have a seat in the
assembly. but he would still have a voice, and be a sizeable
thorn in the flesh of a new government.

the grassroots structures he has created could also offer
some resistance. a committee for the defence of the revolution
(cdr) exists in every ghanaian village.

the women's 'december 31 movement' -- named after the date of
rawlings' second coup in 1981 -- remains strong, and concern has
been expressed over the potential threat of his elite 400-strong
pretorian guard commandos.

''any prospective government will have this at the background
and take immediate steps to dismantle these organisations'',
says laryea.

''it would be welcomed by the majority of ghanaians. the
(cdrs) have never been seen as saviours but oppressors. there
has to be a super purge of the security apparatus'', adds
laryea.

rawlings's chief rival, prof adu boehen, leader of the new
patriotic party (npp), repeatedly states that if he wins he will
not condone victimisation or revenge against rawlings by persons
who have suffered under his regime's repression.

rawlings is accused of a number of serious human rights
violations: a general reign of terror marked the early years
of his ''revolution'', the execution of senior government
officials and heads of state, and the murder of three high court
judges.

while a few civil suits may be allowed, there probably will
not be an official probe of rawlings and his government until
after the first two years of an npp administration, says ansah.

rawlings, by his own admission, is an unwilling democrat. but
any attempt to put the lid back on multipartyism and roll back
the voiiferous -- and at times scandalous -- private media would
be resisted.

apart from a rawlings' victory immediately being confronted
by allegations of rigging by the oposition, a western diplomat
here says ''if there is any backtracking on human rights it
would be taken very seriously by the donors''.

but his real test, it is widely believed, could come from the
military despite a recent large pay rise.

a number of disgruntled former colleagues -- some members of
the original group of young turks who seized power but who were
subsequently sidelined -- still exist. ''rawlings is the
country's and military's problem child'', ansah says.
(end/ips/oa/apc/92)