From: mark.savey@cccbbs.UUCP (Mark Savey) 
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: SPORTS BETTING
Date: 9 Apr 92 16:13:00 GMT
Distribution: world
Organization: Cincinnati Computer Connection BBS - Cincinnati, OH - 513-752-8248
Reply-To: mark.savey@cccbbs.UUCP (Mark Savey) 

DB>From: boll@CS.ColoState.EDU (dave boll)
DB>Newsgroups: rec.gambling
DB>Subject: Sports betting
DB>Message-ID: <1992Apr06.213511.64224@yuma.acns.colostate.edu>
DB>Date: 6 Apr 92 21:35:11 GMT
DB>  Re: NFL picks
DB>  At the request of >1 person, I will not be posting my picks to the net
DB>  this fall. But, I will be e-mailing them to a few rec.gambling readers.
   Hi David,
      I would also like to be added to your list.  If you don't mind.

DB>  In fact, my first program that broke 60% on new games used only two
DB>  pieces of data (given the two teams)...
       In my GAMBLER'S MATE: Football Edition's System 2, I use only the
       final score and schedule to determine winners.  I keep two years
       of final scores files.  Team A vs Team B - for the 1st 7 weeks of
       action, my program grabs last years stats and adds to the new year
       ...does some comparisons adds home team factor (constant figured
       from last 10 years of data) and gens a score.  On week 8, I use
       the current year's data exclusively...

       My system 3 is alot more sophisticated (less plays, more files).
       My program weighs and regresses finding Team B's last opponent,
       whether it won, lost or tied (call variant) and how many wins the
       opponent had in its last 16.  Uses (wins*variant) and then adds 
       this up for the last 16 opponents.  This is done for both teams.
       Only a line is generated, no final score (less plays).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
** To Matthew:
   I did a bit of long needed digging, based on the questions that you
   asked, and was pleasantly surprised concerning my picks.  Since 1989,
   the System 2 and System 3 records are as follows (ties excluded):
         System 2:
         1991: Sys 2 = 59-42   Best Bets: 34-18   Top Pick: 12-5
         1990: Sys 2 = 60-43   Best Bets: 29-24   Top Pick: 11-9
         1989: Sys 2 = 55-43   Best Bets: 30-19   Top Pick: 12-4
         -------------------------------------------------------------
         TOTAL Sys 2= 174-128  57.6% |BBs:93-61  60.4% |TP: 35-18  66%

         System 3:
         1991: Sys 3 = 27-09   Best Bets: 21-09   Top Pick: 13-3
         1990: Sys 3 = 18-15   Best Bets: 16-13   Top Pick:  9-5
         1989: Sys 3 = 18-15   Best Bets: 18-14   Top Pick:  8-7
         -------------------------------------------------------------
         TOTAL Sys 3=  63-39  61.8%  |BBs:55-36  60.4% |TP: 30-15  75%

In calculating common plays since 1989, where System 2 and 3 choose the
same team, the record is as follows:
   1989:  6 times, 4-2
   1990:  8 times, 2-6
   1991: 10 times, 9-1 (saw this one developing early last year!)
   -------------------
   TOTAL 24 times 15-9  62.5%  COMMON PLAYS

In calculating the OVERALL plays since 1989, I had previously neglected
to figured out CONFLICTING picks, as one would not play both teams,
you'd always lose the 10% vig.  They are as follows:
   1989:  9 conflicting, System 3 was 5-4
   1990:  6 conflicting, System 3 was 4-2
   1991: 10 conflicting, System 3 was 7-3
   --------------------------------------
   TOTAL 25 conflicting, System 3 is 16-9  64% | CONFLICTING PLAYS

System 2 is more aggressive (more picks) than System 3.  System 3 must
be using a more practical, or less variable method (uses more historic
data) to be at a 64% advantage when head-to-head with System 2.  Anyway,
the OVERALL record of GAMBLER'S MATE: Football Edition from 1989 through
end of year 1991 is:
   System 2: TOTAL = 174-128  57.6%
     minus conflicts   9- 16
     -----------------------               OVERALL RECORD
                     165-112  60%          --------------
                                           Sys 2  165-112
   System 3: TOTAL =  63-39  61.8%         Sys 3   47- 30
     minus conflicts  16- 9                --------------
     -----------------------               *TOTAL 212-142  (59.887%)
                      47-30  61%               60%!!!

Anyway, here are the stats of my GAMBLER"S MATE: Football Edition since
1989 through end of year 1991, to the best of my knowledge.  Please
interpret/comment on this, should you see anything developing.  I will
soon be breaking down the Picks for both System 2 and 3 as Home Fav,
Home Dog, Road Fav and Road Dog to see if each System's criteria somehow
identifies something real good or bad in this categories when it chooses
them as PLAYS.  Comments?  Thanks...

Take care,

Mark E. Savey
GAMBLER'S MATE software - "Only systems that win!!"                    .
Endorsed by Mike Caro, the "Mad Genius" of Gambling!                   .
Winning for THIRD straight year!                                       .
@ INTERNET: cccbbs!mark.savey@uceng.uc.edu or 74716.1720@CompuServe.com
                             ^-------|------------------^              .
                                   should be the "at" sign (shift-2)   .
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 . DeLuxe. 1.21 #8865 . GAMBLER'S MATE: Football Edition 1992 ask for it!
                                                                                                                            
Newsgroups: rec.gambling