From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank)
Subject: Re: Astros Contenders?
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago
Distribution: na
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 05:46:29 GMT

Short answer: no.  The Braves should win 105, and the Stros won't be close
to that.

In article <C0Go42.5s4@cs.dal.ca> niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma) writes:
>>Despite these losers, the Astros should still win 90 ball games this
>					 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> What? Extremely unlikely... last year the Astros were very fortunate to play
>at the level they did (they were 81-81). They were outscored by 60 runs last
>year meaning that 75-87 was the record they should have had. (Teams that are
>outscored usually have losing records). 

Yeah, but Ryne Bowen's 33 innings was more than half of that difference,
and Shane Reynolds's 25 innings was much of the rest of it.  Bowen made
an average hitter look better than Barry Bonds and a LH hitter look like
Ted Williams.  Pitching in the Dome in the NL, he gave up twice as many
HR as Jim Acker.  That's how bad he was.  

The Astros got blown out a lot, which hurt their differentials, but that's
because their pitching staff was so shallow -- that'll change this year.

>They also have the Plexiglass principle
>working against them; teams that change records dramatically tend to go the 
>opposite year in the next meaning the Astros are likely to slide back down.
>  Houston has a LOT of holes which are covered by young players. Of course,
>young players is the way to go...not with the Kevin Basses and Jose Uribe's 
>of the world. Among there young talent who is really close to being a star
>player? Bagwell, definitely. Biggio's good too but his D's got bad reports and
>he's not a kid anymore. Finley's OK but no Andy Van Slyke. Remeber, I just
>discussed there three BEST position players.

That's a fair assessment.  The offense is a bit below average, and is made
to look worse by the Dome.

>So is the pitching really that good? No. I don't think Atlanta could win with
>these position players. 

Sure they could.  I wouldn't trade the Astros position players for the
Braves position players but the difference isn't that great.  Yeah,
Caminiti played above his head last year -- but so did Pendleton.  Bagwell
and Biggio are both much better than the right side of the Braves infield.
OK, the Stros lose quite a bit when you stack up outfields, but consider
the difference between the best and worst hitters parks, and it's not all
that bad.

>  Drabeck and Swindell are great pitchers. But there starting rotation is thin
>after these guys and Harnish and the bullpen are unlikely at best to perform
>last years performance.
>  The Astros may contend with 85 Wins but there roster leaves you wondering why
>everyone's so high on them.

They have a nucleus now.  It's nowhere near enough (though they'd make it
close if they were in the NL East), but they look to gain four or five wins
from expansion and six or eight from Drabek and Swindell.  The Plexiglass
principle will cost 'em a few games (though Bagwell and Harnisch will 
improve under the PP), but that's still an expectation of 85+ wins.

It's exciting because it's literally a team that's been built from scratch.
In 1991, people were, in the preseason, talking about a team that would lose
110 games.
-- 
ted frank                     | thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu 
standard disclaimers          | void where prohibited
the university of chicago law school, chicago, illinois 60637
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