From: golchowy@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca (Gerald Olchowy)
Subject: Re: The next federal election 
Organization: University of Toronto Chemistry Department
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 19:27:48 GMT

In article <1993Jan11.053256.5885@mdivax1.uucp> robinson@mdd.comm.mot.com (Jim Robinson) writes:
>A number of people have expressed a desire for a minority government.
>Whereas I would agree that a minority situation might be more likely to
>keep a government honest in a certain respect, it also seems to me that it
>could be the worst of all possible worlds. As I see it, with a minority
>government, not only will the government be shoveling handouts to its
>friends as is the usual case, but in addition the party that is keeping the
>government in power will also be able to direct various forms of pork to
>its supporters - thus, we see more than the usual amount of pork barreling.
>As well, it will be almost impossible for a minority government to make
>many of the hard decisions that will have to be made this decade.  For
>example: Would a minority government be able to close a sizable number of
>military bases? Would a minority government be able to pull the plug on
>Hibernia? It's a new world out there, and I have doubts that a minority
>government would have the ability to lead us into it. I suspect that a
>minority government would simply do as little as possible to rock the boat.
>

It is not as if the minority government would last very long...it won't
have time to be an extremely bad government.  What we need is a real
policy debate and a new set of leaders to engage in that policy debate,
so in the second election which would follow relatively soon after,
Canadians could make an enlightened decision about the direction they
want the country to take, and not burden the country with an incompetent
leader like Chretien for 5 years at such a crucial time in our history.

In the meantime, we would also see Clinton struggle and fail to get
much done in the States, which would bring a heavy dose of realism to
Canadian politics.

>On a separate topic, a number of people have also expressed the belief that
>the BQ will elect a large number of Quebec MPs. Well, on CTV's Question
>Period today (Sunday, Jan 10) Craig Oliver had on  3 political reporters.
>One of them was Don Braid (Calgary Herald, I believe), one was from the
>Globe and Mail (somebody Coyne), and a third who I did not recognize and
>cannot remember the name of. All three said the same thing wrt the BQ;
>namely that the high degree of support that that party is now enjoying
>will evaporate on election day as Quebecers repeat the pattern they have
>exhibited on past occasions and vote for the party that they think will be
>able to provide the most positive results for Quebec, i.e., the party that
>will form the government.  And since the BQ not only has no chance of
>forming the government, but also is unlikely to have any influence in a
>minority government, the BQ will not receive Quebec's vote to any great
>extent. I thought that this was a convincing argument, but it should be
>noted that all three reporters were from CHQ and thus could be guilty of
>not correctly reading the mood in La Belle Province.

This is the big unknown...will Quebecois vote for Chretien? 

The establishment media were also predicting an easy YES ratification
of a constitutional agreement reached by the first ministers.    

Gerald