From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (K. Mitchell Bose)
Subject: Re: joe carter and others
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 92 01:31:09 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
Distribution: rec

In article <1992Dec13.161023.24184@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca> maynard@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (Roger Maynard) writes:
>In <5d_rmt=@lynx.unm.edu> kbos@lacerta.unm.edu (K. Mitchell Bose) writes:
>
>>'Sfunny, we can model the sum of those component parts pretty damned 
>>effectively.  But then, I forgot, you're "not entirely familiar" with RC/27,
>
>Why has it never occurred to you that what you are modelling is not baseball
>but an incomplete perception of what baseball really is?  If you really truly
>think you have figured it out why aren't you down in Vegas making yourself
>a rich man?

Ya gotta have money to make money, bub...as a matter of fact, though, I did, in
fact, make about $200 on the Blue Jays' victory this year.  Once one starts
betting on games, of course, one isn't even talking about sabermetrics anymore,
but psychology (what's the public perception of talent, rather than what the
talent really is?)

As for what we're "modelling", I'm always out to improve the model, by factoring
in "incomplete" data.  But the model works well now.  Statistically speaking,
the Cubbies will find it a struggle to score more than about 600 runs next
year (give or take about a run a week).  Intuitively, the Cubs offense sucks.

>
>>As one AL executive said, "Toronto got rid of some problem players, but they
>>picked up Joe Carter and Devon White, who are two of the most selfish players
>>in the game."
>
>>A reporter wrote that, on December 24, 1990.  I give that the same amount of
>>credibility I give the reports of Henderson's "moodiness".
>
>Reporter?  Is Marty York of the Globe and Mail actually a reporter?  I have
>heard him called lots of other names but never that.  This is the only instance
>I have ever seen where White and Carter have been described as selfish. 
>Henderson has been described as such time and time again.  (maybe you could
>compile statistics on who is reportedly the most selfish player in the game.)
>
Naah, that's an "intangible".

As for Marty York, he might be a French pastry.  Is he the guy who writes the 
Gant for Borders and Baerga for Gruber rumors?  If so, he's a chowderhead.

>>That's okay; all this talk I hear about Roberto Alomar being a great second
>>baseman appears dubious when he ranks in the middle of the pack for second
>>basemen...
>
>That is because you cannot understand what you see with your own eyes.  You
>have abstracted yourself right out of reality pal.  If you cannot tell 
>whether a player is any good without consulting statistics (that only 
>measure part of a players contribution to winning) I don't see how you
>could possibly enjoy watching a game at any but the most simplistic rah-
>rah level.

Thanks for removing the previous paragraph, Rog; you bring the term "out of 
context" to new heights.  May Dick Young raise a statue in your honor...

People keep telling me Jose Lind is a great fielder, but boy, I can't see it.
He made an error in one of three games I watched.  But then those morons turned
around and gave him the Gold Glove!  {sarcasm alert}

As a matter of fact, (no numbers here) I think he plays a couple of steps too
shallow, from what I've seen.  I think you'd see the numbers agree with the 
public perception of his play if he played deeper, like Ripken at SS.  Robbie
has to have better lateral movement than Cal, and unless he has a rag for an
arm, which he doesn't _appear_ to, he should be able to afford to play deeper,
especially on turf.

There, that's an _observation_, based on the twenty or so Blue Jay games I've
seen.  And, it may be untrue...he might just be playing shallower than other
2Bs in the games I watch.

Here, however, is the standard argument against relying on personal observation
to judge quality.  "Very few people see a wide enough sample of fielders, or 
fielding chances for a lot of fielders, to form anything but the sketchiest 
of impressions regarding the comparative quality of fielders."

Honest truth...the best defensive shortstop I've ever _seen_ for more than 
fifty games in person was Jose Offerman.  He looked better than Ripken did.
Now, who's the better shortstop defensively?  Granted, Offerman had the worst
year (by far) of his career with the glove, but even the mediots have come
around to the idea that Ripken was excellent defensively even though he doesn't
look flashy out there.  A bit late, perhaps, but...

I read comments a few months ago stating that it was a travesty of justice that
Carney Lansford wasn't being given consideration for a Gold Glove.  Now, watch
a game and see Lansford's "stop, drop, and roll" approach to defense.  Do the
numbers lie?

The formulae are compatible with public perception all over.  Jose Lind and
Robby Thompson are near the top; Steve Sax, Kurt Stillwell, and Delino DeShields
are near the bottom.   Why does it work for them and not Robbie?

You really want to discuss it?  Discuss it with Sherri.  The fact is, Roberto
Alomar does not catch as many balls as Jose Lind.  And it isn't close.  That's
just a counting stat, like home runs.  Or aren't home runs a good indicator of
power?

>
>>What about paying another 750,000 and getting Barry Bonds?  Oh, sorry, he's 
>>"not a team player".  
>
>Bond's contract was what?  43 million?  Carter's was around 20.
>
For half as long.  And Bonds is younger.  And Bonds is better.

>>Jesse Barfield is out there, and if he passes a team physical, could probably
>>be had for one eighth of Carter's salary.  At most.  Even if he posts a line
>>like .235/.290/.400, that's not much worse than Carter, and they would still
>
>You are assuming that "the line" measures a player's contribution.  It doesn't.

Ah, the old "Alfredo Griffin was a great player" defense.

>Barfield sucks bigtime.  Comparing him to Carter shows us all just how flawed
>your system is.

He's got some power, and knows how to take a walk.  He also had a great arm.
As I said, "if he's healthy".  He hasn't been.  Besides, for half a million,
what's the risk?  Take that money and make Maddux an offer he can't refuse...
 
>
>>have the money to make an offer to Maddux instead of Stewart.  As much as
>>Maddux liked Atlanta, I'm sure that he would also like being the ace of the
>>World Champion staff.  
>
>I don't think there is any doubt that next year Maddux will be the ace of the
>WS winning staff.

Maybe in your mind...I don't think the Braves will do it.

And ya wanna know something?

ALL THE STATS SAY THEY WILL!!!  I'M A GUT FEELING KINDA GUY!!!!

>
>>Hell, protect Nigel Wilson instead of Turner Ward, sign Joe Orsulak for a 
>>year or two, and in two years, you've got a player who's going to do the exact
>>same damn thing as Carter, but is a decade younger, and five or six million
>>dollars a year cheaper.
>>Then again, there's always this thing called a "trade".
>
>Sure.  Let's dismantle a World Series winning team and gamble that in a few
>years some of our youngsters can duplicate what we already have right now. 

Worked for the Branch Rickey Cardinals...
Part of what made the A's repeat is the fact that Alderson didn't stand pat.

Only three of the players who were starters in the A's 1988 division title were
starters in 1992.

In 1989, the Twins speeded the "dismantling" of their 1987 core by trading
Frank Viola for, among other people, Tapani and Aguilera.  These two were 
important cogs in the 1991 championship.

>Never mind the fact that some fans actually *enjoy* watching Carter and
>White and their teammates perform.  The fans, that is, who enjoy watching the
>game more than they enjoy tabulating statistics.

Might I suggest Madonna in left, then?  Lots of people enjoy seeing her perform,
too.

I wonder what the correlation between attendance of winning teams is with
attendance of "entertaining" teams.  Of course, you don't; that would require
"statistics".

-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) * kbos@carina.unm.edu * Walks: not that sexy.
"Halt!  Based on conclusive dental evidence that truly bites, I arrest you 
 hereby for the murdering of the dead Belzic Tascar.  I am obliged to warn you 
 that my weapons are registered as offensive fronds!!"- R.M.Allen, "Monkey See"