From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Statheads and park effects
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1992 16:59:07 GMT

In article <1992Dec21.070721.21021@Princeton.EDU> niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent) writes:
>In article <1992Dec21.034950.20545@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>I doubt Reed will hit fewer than 30 doubles next year, unless he
>>totally sucks like he did in 1992.  He got some doubles off of the
>>wall, but most of his doubles were down-the-line shots that are
>>doubles in any park.  He's primarily a line-drive hitter, and so
>>should gain some advantage from the large turf parks in the NL.
>
>Well, Bill James once said that he hits similar numbers of doubles at
>home and on the road, but that was over a two year period or something.
>I don't have 1992 splits, but from 1987-1991, his numbers
>
>Home: 90 2bs, 1085 ABs  (8.29%)
>Road: 63 2bs, 1023 ABs  (6.16%)

That's about what I would have guessed.  My prediction of 30 doubles
still stands...

>>And Boggs?  Don't be surprised if he hits 20 HRs.  He is (I think)
>>an intelligent enough hitter to learn to pull the ball.
>
>I hate to say this, Valentine, but bullschott.  Wade Boggs is 35 years
>old with a bad back.  Other than the rabbit-ball year, where he hit 24
>home runs, he has never hit more than 8 home runs in a year.  
>
>His career high on the road (again, except for 1987) is 5 home runs.
>
>If he were that intelligent, and if intelligence were all that mattered,
>rather than home run ability, he would have pulled the ball on the road
>during his career and hit a few more home runs.

A good argument, *EXCEPT* I don't believe ballplayers can effectively
alter their swing from game to game.  As anybody can tell you, Boggs
pushed the ball to left field exactly the same whether at home or on
the road.  He would very rarely pull the ball at all; when he did so,
it would frequently go for a long HR.

But Boggs has no reason to keep that swing.  In fact, he has a strong
incentive to entirely retool it.  He's not particularly weak...  If he
*does* switch to a pull stroke, I think he will suddenly discover a
"talent for hitting HRs".

>But having a bad back?

Is his back that bad?  I don't think so...

>Don Mattingly was a good hitter, and I'm sure
>he's intelligent too.  And he had a lot more power than Wade Boggs.
>But since he hurt his back, he hasn't hit more than 14 home runs in a 
>season.

Your argument is circular.  "Boggs doesn't have power because he has
never hit HRs.  Boggs won't hit HRs because he doesn't have power."
This would be a fine argument, except that you are ignoring the fact
that baseball is more than those recorded numbers.

Let me use an example from slow-pitch softball.  (No, I can't hit
anything as small as a baseball...  I can't even hit a softball if
thrown hard...  But I think the results apply.)  I use a swing very
much like Boggs'.  As I am right handed, this results in my dumping
the ball reliably in front of the right fielder (or at least
over/through the second baseman, who is usually the weakest fielder).
I can bat well over .500 with that swing, but almost never get an
extra base hit.

On occasion, opposing teams have picked up on this and shifted the
defense in that direction.  This usually involves moving the tenth
fielder from short left to short right field, as well as moving the
infielders over a bit.  I will then pull the ball down the line, often
getting it past the outfielder for a triple or HR.  (We don't play
with fences, so a line drive can go a long way...  And don't ask me
what I would do if an opposing team put players *both* on the line
*and* in short right field.  Those are the only two spots I know how
to hit.)

Why can't Boggs do the same?  He has (or had) enough power to hit the
Wall on the fly.  If he pulls the ball, that should *easily* be enough
power to get it into the short porch in Yankee Stadium.

>I say Boggs won't hit more than 10 home runs next year, either.

And he won't, unless he radically changes his swing.  But he might...

-Valentine
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