From: kbos@lacerta.unm.edu (K. Mitchell Bose)
Subject: Re: joe carter and others
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 92 15:02:15 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
Distribution: rec

In article <1992Dec12.4235.52095@dosgate> "michael berger" <michael.berger@canrem.com> writes:
>I address this comment to all those devotees of statistical analysis of
>baseball who continually malign joe carter and his signing by the
>toronto blue jays.  I have read many messages which say joe carter is
>not half the player rickey henderson is and other disparaging comments.

Well, yes, that's because Joe Carter is to Rickey Henderson as Nell Carter is
to Dave Henderson.  But I digress...

>
>Now these comments may be true and rickey henderson is undoubtably
>blessed with much talent, however I see a problem with these analyses.
>Rickey Henderson is perhaps the most self-centered miserable baseball
>player in history. 

And perhaps he's a sensitive individual who has to put up with a harping media
hell bent on turning on anyone who doesn't suck into a three ring circus
so that the media has an easy time selling air time, or newspapers, or 
whatever type of "reporting" they represent.  The term is "hatchet job", and
it's a time honored tradition of sportswriters everywhere.  At least, it's a
tradition of those who sportswriters who don't have the talent to be writers
who write about sports...

 I took great enjoyment watching him screw up on
>numerous occasions in the ALCS.

Er...would this be the 1989 MVP Series, or the marginally worse 1990 Series?
I assume it's the 1992 Series, but define "numerous"...what exactly is that
number?  One?  Two?  Which times were they?  

  People have said that a team of nine
>Hendersons would outscore nine Carters by some large margin using
>something called RC/27 with which I am not entirely familiar.

Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with it, then, before you malign it.
We mock what we do not understand.  But in case you don't "get it", let me
say it plainly.

Joe Carter is not as good a player as Rickey Henderson because his game is
deficient in several respects, and he lacks several crucial skills that 
Henderson does not.  To wit:  My ex-girlfriend gets to first base more often
than Joe Carter does.  

  Anyone
>who believes this is missing a key truth about teams and all
>organizations.  Their performance is rarely equal to the sum of their
>component parts.

'Sfunny, we can model the sum of those component parts pretty damned 
effectively.  But then, I forgot, you're "not entirely familiar" with RC/27,
which is probably the grade level stuff that got many people started in 
statistical analysis in the first place.  (I'm guessing that the first place
most people started hearing about "sabermetrics" was in the Baseball Abstract.)

  The concept of team chemistry has been the difference
>between the Blue Jay teams of 1992 vs <1991.

Well, thank you for telling me.  I thought that it was things like playing
Mookie Wilson in 1990, playing against that screwup Rickey Henderson in 1989,
giving Jim Clancy 31 starts in 1988, and losing Tony Fernandez and Ernie Whitt 
at the end of 1987.  But no, now I'm told that it's because we have four year 
olds playing the game.  Ah...

  Nine Hendersons would not
>score all those runs because the whole clubhouse would be at eachothers'
>throats, chiefly because only one of them could bat leadoff.

Well, if that's the chief reason they're fighting, then we'll just rotate them
in and out of the #1 hole.  (Y'know, they're only guaranteed one time leading
off...)

>
>While I may be exaggerating, my central point is that some players like
>Joe Carter contribute with more than just run production.

As one AL executive said, "Toronto got rid of some problem players, but they
picked up Joe Carter and Devon White, who are two of the most selfish players
in the game."

A reporter wrote that, on December 24, 1990.  I give that the same amount of
credibility I give the reports of Henderson's "moodiness".

  What is Devon
>White's value to the pitching staff's confidence beyond the number of
>errors he makes?

Well, the pitching staff improved by about 60 runs, which coincidentally is
how much they gained from having Jimmy Key pitch healthy and replacing John
Cerutti with Juan Guzman in the rotation.  Oh, and the pitching was the worst 
it's been since 1986.  Yes, it was better in the rabbit ball year.

  And those statistics about range appear dubious
>considering Roberto Alomar seems to rank at the bottom for second
>basemen.
>
That's okay; all this talk I hear about Roberto Alomar being a great second
baseman appears dubious when he ranks in the middle of the pack for second
basemen...


>If you really believe the Jays should not have resigned Carter, name
>their alternative for replacing his production on the team.  Sierra was
>the only run-producing outfielder left and his attitude rivals
>Henderson's.
>
What about paying another 750,000 and getting Barry Bonds?  Oh, sorry, he's 
"not a team player".  
Jesse Barfield is out there, and if he passes a team physical, could probably
be had for one eighth of Carter's salary.  At most.  Even if he posts a line
like .235/.290/.400, that's not much worse than Carter, and they would still
have the money to make an offer to Maddux instead of Stewart.  As much as
Maddux liked Atlanta, I'm sure that he would also like being the ace of the
World Champion staff.  
Hell, protect Nigel Wilson instead of Turner Ward, sign Joe Orsulak for a 
year or two, and in two years, you've got a player who's going to do the exact
same damn thing as Carter, but is a decade younger, and five or six million
dollars a year cheaper.
Then again, there's always this thing called a "trade".

>To all those Brewer fans, I will just add that it (the total dismantling
>of your team) could not have happened to a nicer group of people.  Why,
>when you were solidly in contention, were you not selling out your
>stadium.

There wasn't a chance of seeing wild sex in a hotel room in center field.

>
>Just my $0.02 worth.
>
Which reminds me... how much IS the exchange rate now?


-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) * kbos@carina.unm.edu * Walks: not that sexy.
"Halt!  Based on conclusive dental evidence that truly bites, I arrest you 
 hereby for the murdering of the dead Belzic Tascar.  I am obliged to warn you 
 that my weapons are registered as offensive fronds!!"- R.M.Allen, "Monkey See"