From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: WARNING: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 17:15:33 GMT

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                     POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                           ISSUED: 17:00 UT, 22 JULY

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    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  22 - 23 July
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  22 - 24 July

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR TO MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  24 TO 36 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6 - 7

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  LOW
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  MOSTLY GOOD ON 22-23 JULY

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD TO POOR ON 22-23 JULY

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO FAIR

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  35%

SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:  Well-placed solar coronal hole.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 05 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 20 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
        MINOR STORM : 50 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 25 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : N/A        ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR


PREDICTED PLANETARY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FOR 22-23 JULY
-------------------------------------------------------

PEAK PLANETARY (24-HOUR) A-INDEX: 50 - 55 (MAJOR STORM) NEAR 23/06:00 UT

PRELIMINARY STD PREDICTED 24-HOUR K-INDICES:
             22 JULY                          23 JULY
            ---------                        ---------
            2366 6544  A-INDEX: 45           4565 5433  A-INDEX: 38
            **** *
where "*" denotes observed values.  Those unmarked denote forecasted values.


PREDICTED MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FOR 22-23 JULY
-------------------------------------------------------------

PEAK MID-LAT (24-HOUR) A-INDEX: 30 - 35 (MINOR STORM) NEAR 23/09:00 UT

PRELIMINARY STD PREDICTED 24-HOUR K-INDICES:
             22 JULY                          23 JULY
            ---------                        ---------
            3345 5443  A-INDEX: 28           4554 4332  A-INDEX: 26
            **** *                           **** *
where "*" denotes observed values.  Those unmarked denote forecasted values.


**  End of Warning  **