From: geppo@spot.wustl.edu (Giuseppe Bianchi)
Subject: Re: Secure(?) 3 NT
Organization: Washington University, St. Louis MO
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 1992 16:57:02 GMT

In article <1992Nov4.200102.25424@ugle.unit.no> Dag.Ostvang@avh.unit.no (Dag stvang) writes:
>
>
>At IMPs, neither side vulnerable, you are dealer and open 1 NT which
>partner lifts to 3 NT. The heart jack is led, and you consider the
>following play problem:
>
>
>                             Dummy
>
>                             S A 6 5 4
>                             H Q T
>                             D Q 7 2
>                             C K 6 5 3
>
>
>                             You
>
>                             S K J 8
>                             H A K 7 3
>                             D J 5
>                             C A J 9 4.
>
>
>You take the heart queen, and cash the heart ten, everybody following. You   
>do not think it likely that LHO has a 5-card suit, given the lead.
>If so, what is your line of play?
>
>                                          Dag Ostvang


After looking at the given answers, I realized that all those lines (also the
one proposed by myself)  are not _secure_!! 
In particular all those lines fail to handle the 4-1 club split.

This is the reason (suppose to play small club to the 9):

after small club to the 9, return in heart for the A, cashing the second
heart (while pitching a club and a spade, or two spades),
small club to the K discovering the 4-1 split, and club for the ace, the
end of play is the following (supposing to pitch a club and a spade):

A x x
-
Q x x
-


K J x
-
J x
J

So, playing J of clubs for the Q of LHO, we MUST pitch a spade and thus
LHO can find the KILLING return in spades! I'll gain my trick with the
J of spades, but now the A of spades is blocked and I'll have to move diamonds
for the down 1 (against the perfect defense discards).

And if I cash the spade A before playing club? It doesn't work too: LHO
return in diamond for RHO who cross in spades!

After a while I found the (almost) 100% line

- Small club to the A,
- AK of hearts (finding the 4-3 or 3-4 distribution; if LHO shows up 
  immediately showing a lead from Jx I stop after cashing the A), pitching
  two spades.
- small club ducked (if LHO follows)!

I win: 
   - against the C 3-2 and 2-3, of course;
   - against the C 4-1 LHO is endplayed, and with the (best defense) return 
     in spades for my J in hand, I play spades for the A, A of clubs and 
     clubs!! LHO can decide if to give me the king of spade or play diamond
     giving me the Q in dummy (if the hearts were 2-5 i don't have to pitch
     the second spade, thus my spade A is not blocked).
   - against the C 1-4 or 0-5 I win with the K and move a small club 
     toward my J

and against the C 5-0? In this case I have to hope that the leader started
with 3 or less hearts (practically sure, after the lead). 
The play should be C->A, cash only 1 top heart (if you cash 2 hearts 
you have the same problems specified before), and club ducked.

This line loses only against the 5-2 heart split, that is VERY unlikely after
the lead, and, as said, the H4-3 C5-0, very unlikely too. 
(BTW: after the discovery of a 5-2 heart split, there are a LOT of other
chances to make the contract (club 3-2, 2-3 or 1-4, finesse of spade ..).

I _WAS_ missing something! The deal was much more interesting of what it
seemed!

BTW: of course all those considerations are valid in IMP: at MP this line
GUARANTEES the bottom, given a LOT of possibilities to score an overtrick.


Giuseppe.