From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 1992 04:29:00 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              15 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 259, 09/15/92
10.7 FLUX=120.2  90-AVG=124        SSN=098      BKI=2333 2211  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B3.8     FLU1=7.6E+05  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=3333 2221  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=017,028,037,023,010,017,008,008   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.6   @ 0201UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 0041UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.8
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 2030UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1500UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1300UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 2350UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55433NT @ 0043UT   BOUTF-MIN=55430NT @ 0033UT  BOUTF-AVG=55431NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+095NT@ 0007UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0042UT  G7-AVG=+091,+031,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 0001UT   GOES6-MIN=E:+001NT@ 0043UT  G6-AVG=+108,+002,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,110,110;SESC:115,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2134 3111 2124 3221  27DAY-AP=006,024   27DAY-KP=1121 2223 3645 3222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity persisted at low levels for the last 24 hours.  The
largest flare of the day was a class C2.6/SF flare from Region 7281 (N11W89)
at 02:01 UT.

     Region 7276 (N16W26) continued to decay and simplify during the day.
Region 7282 (S18W59) was stable in terms of growth.

     A filament disappeared between 23:34 Ut on 14 September and 16:19 UT on
15 September and was located near N17W04.  There is only a slight chance this
eruption could be geoeffective.

     Two minor regions were numbered today.  Region 7283 rotated around the
east limb as a simple H-type spot and was located at S15E70 at 24:00 UT.  New
Region 7284 (N09E10) was born on the disk today as a simple BXO type spot
group.

     Solar activity is expected to continue low.  None of the regions
presently visible appear to be capable of anything more energetic than small
C-class flares.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet today.  A few unsettled to active
periods were reported over the higher latitude regions between 09:00 UT and
15:00 UT.  No significant changes are expected in the stability of the field
over the next 72 hours.

     HF propagation conditions were generally normal over all regions.
Similar conditions should persist over the next 72 hours.  No influential
disturbances are anticipated.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7276  N16W26  261  0070 DSO  08  017 BETA
7280  S13E12  223  0060 CSO  03  006 BETA
7281  N11W89  324  0060 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7282  S18W59  294  0120 DAO  10  006 BETA
7283  S15E70  165  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7284  N09E10  225  0020 BXO  02  006 BETA
7277  S11W63  298                    PLAGE
7278  N11W70  305                    PLAGE
7279  S02W17  252                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 SEPTEMBER TO 18 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7267 N02   119


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
15/ 0334     0348     0436                LDE    B9.5   62
14/ 2334     ////  15/1619      N17W04    DSF     14


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **

DUE TO A SYSTEM MALFUNCTION DURING A MAIL TRANSFER PERIOD ON 13 SEPTEMBER,
THE DAILY SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER MAY NOT HAVE MADE IT OUT.  IT IS BEING
RESENT BELOW IN ORDER TO FILL ANY GAPS IN DATA THAT MAY EXIST.

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              13 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 257, 09/13/92
10.7 FLUX=127.3  90-AVG=124        SSN=109      BKI=1112 1022  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B2.9     FLU1=4.5E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2222 2233  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=009,006,008,010,008,004,012,011   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.6   @ 0308UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.3   @ 0150UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2115UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1635UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2155UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55441NT @ 1339UT   BOUTF-MIN=55406NT @ 1717UT  BOUTF-AVG=55429NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+150NT@ 2003UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0411UT  G7-AVG=+101,+037,+013
GOES6-MAX=P:+157NT@ 2001UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 0736UT  G6-AVG=+113,-002,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,127;SESC:125,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2223 4211 1233 4111  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=1111 1221 2112 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low.  A few C-class flares were observed today,
mostly from Region 7276 (N14E01).  This remains the largest and most active
spot group visible and retains a weak delta magnetic configuration.  C-class
flares remain possible from this region with a persisting possibility of a
minor M-class event over the next 3 to 5 days.

     Region 7282 (S18W32) experienced fairly rapid growth today, increasing
from 20 millionths to 120 millionths over the last 24 hours.  Spot counts
doubled in this region.  The group is presently a DAO type group in a bipolar
configuration.  Additional growth could prompt isolated C-class flares.  This
region was responsible for the jump in the 10.7 cm solar radio flux to 127
from yesterdays value of 117.

     No new regions were assigned today.

     Solar activity should continue mostly low.  There is a small chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Region 7276.  C-class flares are possible in
Region 7282.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet today with a few unsettled
periods mixed in.  Conditions are expected to be generally quiet to unsettled
over the next 72 hours.

     HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal over the middle and
low latitude signal paths.  High and polar latitude paths remained slightly
below normal, but are steadily improving to near-normal.  Conditions are
expected to become near-normal over all regions during the next 48 hours.
MUFs have remained depressed by approximately 25 percent below seasonal
normals and are gradually improving.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7276  N14E01  261  0180 EAI  11  036 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7279  S02E09  253  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7280  S13E43  219  0110 CSO  09  003 BETA
7281  N12W59  321  0030 CSO  06  005 BETA
7282  S18W32  294  0120 DAO  07  012 BETA
7277  S11W37  299                    PLAGE
7278  N11W44  306                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 SEPTEMBER TO 16 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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