From: mcmath@csb1.nlm.nih.gov (Chuck Totally Hair McMath)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Tanana
Date: 23 Dec 92 13:38:09 GMT
Followup-To: rec.sport.baseball
Distribution: na
Organization: MSD

In article <1992Dec23.002809.28303@midway.uchicago.edu>,
thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank) wrote:
> 
> In article <mcmath-221292154718@mcmathmac.nlm.nih.gov> mcmath@csb1.nlm.nih.gov (Chuck Totally Hair McMath) writes:
> >The line for Tanana:
> >
> >PITCHERS        W  L   ERA   G GS CG GF SH SV   INN   H   R  ER HR  BB  SO
> >TANANA,F       13 11  4.39  32 31  3  0  0  0 186.2 188 102  91 22  90  91
> >
> >~200 IP.  Sure, if you want to give a guy like this 200 IP, I'm sure he'd
> >gladly accept the gift.  The only problem is that there are about 100 other
> >people you could choose, including some who are in AAA and would be cheaper
> >(don't know what Tanana's signed for, but it's not the ML minimum, I'll
> >bet).  
> 
> Are there really that many out there?  Even after expansion?  Certainly
> enough teams had trouble finding them.  The Orioles would've loved to
> have Tanana instead of Milacki.  Tanana would've been a #3 starter on
> the Indians staff.  The Tigers had enough trouble *with* Tanana on their
> staff finding such pitchers.  
> 
> I certainly wouldn't build a staff around Tanana, but if you're looking
> for someone to give you 30 starts, 180 innings and about a 4 ERA, as 
> Tanana has done for 13 years fairly regularly even after he blew his arm
> out in 1979, you could do worse.  Frank Tanana is precisely the guy you
> *want* to *sign*, rather than trade two prospects for.  
> 

	Maybe I was too harsh on Frank.  Ok, ok, he deserves a job.

	Let me rephrase the argument, then.  Don't you think you could find 3
pitchers on each AAA farm team who could be counted on to put up similar
numbers (+ or - a std deviation)?  Granted, the Mets just couldn't pick up
any of these guys, so I was exaggerating.  So maybe I overestimated the
talent pool.  

But why would the Mets, who unarguably will be out of it in 93, want to
give 200 IP to Tanana, when you could use those innings to find out if some
of that AAA talent is legit?  And, I'd expect that any pitcher from AAA who
would be promoted to the ML would be cheaper than Tanana, so you'd save
money.  If worst came to worst, promote some career minor leaguer, give him
a shot, and see if he comes thru.  If so, you're ahead.  If not, you
*still* finish 5th or 6th, and who gives a flying farkle?

	While it's true you *might* end up with someone who's a lot worse than
Tanana, you also might end up with someone who's better.  Tanana's a known
quantity; the question is, is he a quantity you want, or can you do better?

	Of course, being in a pitcher's park, Tanana will probably post something
like a 3.75 ERA and the Mets will point to him being a stabilizing factor. 
Of course, the team OPS will also be .650, so he'll finish 12-15.

	The only reason to sign and pitch Tanana would be to prove that "we have a
committment to winning, and we value the leadership of someone like Frank."
 In other words, your typical GM bullshott (love that word!).

chuck


|- chuck mcmath - mcmath@csb1.nlm.nih.gov - MSD, Inc. --------------|
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|- Bethesda, MD 20894 - Mbr Society of Astral Projectionists (SAP) -|
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