From: steven@unipalm.co.uk (Steven Vincent)
Subject: Re: WAR IN BOSNIA!!!!
Organization: Unipalm Ltd., 216 Cambridge Science Park, Cambridge CB4 4WA, UK
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1992 09:22:16 GMT

harp@netcom.com (Gregory O. Harp) writes:
>>This is probably the biggest foreign-policy mistake we could make. Bosnia
>>is an extremely dangerous region and sending US troops can only result in
>>a great deal of American bloodshed. 

>This is true.  If we were to send ground forces into Bosnia, we would
>stand to lose a great number of soldiers.  However, from what I heard
>on CNN today (Dec. 17), the only military action that we've pledged to
>the U.N. is airborne.

>That is, at minimum we would be enforcing the no-fly zone by
>intercepting and possibly destroying Serbian fixed-wing aircraft
>flying over Bosnia.  At maximum, we'd be using smart bombs and
>anti-radiation missles to take out various targets.

This is what has Britain and several other (but not all) European
countries worried. If the USN starts shooting at the Serbs then the
Serbs are going to start shooting at the UN troops on the ground. 
That means the British, Canadian an Ukrainian troops. (The French as
well but they are for heavier action). Now I personnally think that
military action is neccessary and that it should be done as a WEU
operation without US involvement. I recognise that this will involve
a commitment far beyond the Gulf operation and at best will reduce things
to the level of Northern Ireland. i.e. we will have to go in and fight
a war lasting several years and will end up with a segregated population
and a long term terrorist problem. Sure European military power can go
in and occupy the Towns and villages in a matter of weeks but the Serbs
and several other groups will just take to the hills and it will take
a long time to reduce there stocks to a managable level.
 
>>3) United States involvement in an area that has been historically explosive
>>(remember World War One?) can only feed tensions in the region and stir Anti-
>>American sentiment in the area. 

Very True.

>Leave the situation alone and you practically guarantee widespread
>war.  This sort of non-involvement sentiment is what allowed WWI and
>WWII to happen.

Possible but there have been lots of civil wars in the Balkans, only one
let to a world war. We have two choices, War of Enforcement by the UN or
a quarantine order which allows those on the ground to sort things out
in their own (Bloody) way. Anything inbetween just increases the third party
costs and prolongs the agony. In particular Air-Strikes would just up the
ante and make the current UN policy unworkable.
  Of course with the Arab world allready breaking sanctions to supply
the Muslems and threatening to do more while certain cash starved nations
with large military surplus stocks supply the already well equiped Serbs
the situation can only get worse.

>>In the meantime, we should all pray for peace in Bosnia before it becomes
>>more of a mess than before.

Prayer: (verb) the act of soothing a guilty conscience while doing nothing.


>President-Elect Clinton mentioned today Serbia's opportunity to avoid
>U.S. action against them.  They must take advantage of their upcoming
>elections to bring a non-agressive goverment to power.  The Bosnian
>leaders are anxious for peace, or so they say.

What the Bosnian leaders want is not the issue since the elections are
for the Serbs!!! In fact it looks like the Serbs have voted for militancy,
real or rigged that is what the poles are showing now so the situation
will get worse still.

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Of course it is easy to right the problems of the world from here.

Steven Vincent				steven@unipalm.co.uk
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,alt.rush-limbaugh,alt.politics.bush