From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Managing in the AL
Date: 23 Aug 92 14:18:03 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853

In article <22AUG199217433832@zeus.tamu.edu> enw2049@zeus.tamu.edu (WALKE, ERIK N) writes:
>In article <1992Aug22.042305.21911@cs.cornell.edu>, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes...
>> 
>>AL managers have one *big* decision to make that NL managers don't.
>>When do you pull your star pitcher and go to the bullpen in a close
>>game?  In the NL, almost all pitching switches are dictated by
>>situation (score, inning, and when the pitcher comes to bat).
>
>       This seemingly innocuous statement just ain't correct.  As you 
>       make quite clear in the succeeding lines, you mistakenly think
>       that the strategic moves required in the NL (line-up changes, 
>       double switches, etc.) are the dominant factors in the decsion
>       when and how to remove a pitcher.  That is INCORRECT.

Oh?  Then why is it so easy to predict when an NL manager will pull a
pitcher?  AL managers are difficult to predict unless you know the
team well.  But it's possible to tell what the NL manager will do 90%
of the time.  (Okay, so I don't always know *who* he will use to pinch
hit with, or who will be taken out in the double switch.  But the
timing is obvious.)

>       Do you actually think that NL managers 
>       pull a starter who's pitching well simply because that pitcher
>       is due to bat third in the next inning?

Of course not!  That isn't what I said, and that isn't what I meant.
If a pitcher is pitching well, is still strong, and has the lead, he
will usually be allowed to hit for himself.  If the game is tied or
his team is down by a run, or he is over 100 pitchers, he will
*usually* be pulled for a pinch hitter.

BTW, a pitcher is less likely to be pulled if he is due to bat third
than if he is due to lead off.  If there are two outs with the team
down 2-1 when the pitcher comes to the plate in the top of the
seventh, he *probably* won't be pulled.  But if that pitcher were
leading off in that same situation...

>       Double-swithches, line-up changes and all the rest are the 
>       EFFECT, not the CAUSE, of a pitcher's removal.
>
>       I must admit that cases do arise where a pitcher who has per-
>       formed well is still removed for a pinch-hitter.

And that is my point.  In fact that *often* happens.  Which is why NL
managers are so predictable.  Either I am a strategic genius, or there
isn't a hell of a lot of strategy in the NL about when to pull the
pitcher.

>       If any ML managers actually do this, they're stupider than they
>       appear.  Some pitchers run out of gas long before 100 pitches,
>       some are still throwing gas at 125.

You are picking nits.  *ALL* pitchers have (or should have) pitch
limits.  Whether that limit is 90 pitches or 120 is irrelevant.

>       Might I politely suggest that you watch a few more NL games, 
>       then.  Not only might you learn a few of the players, you 
>       might see some of the strategies of which you are so critical.

I watch more than enough, thank you.  I know the stars reasonably
well.  I just don't know much about the Shane Turners, John Marzanos,
Tim Naehrings, and Steve Freys of the league.  (I usually know who
they are and who they play for, but that's about it.)  And I wasn't
criticizing the strategy.  Just noting that it is quite predictable.

>       Ok, Ok, point taken.  There is way too much of the damn concrete
>       in the NL.  But any AL fan who criticizes artificial turf has 
>       to remember one thing:  METRODOME, METRODOME, METRODOME .       

Hey, I don't usually watch games played in the Twinkiedome, Skydome,
or Kingdome either.  And I've been known to turn from a Red Sox game
to a Yankees game simply because the Sox were playing in KC.  (An
*outdoor* stadium with turf is even more of an abomination.)

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
Ob. woof: Clemens is the best pitcher ever!	tedward@cs.cornell.edu