From: daniels@ih-nxt07.cso.uiuc.edu (Daniel Ray Sawyer)
Subject: Re: Back to actual politics
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 19 Nov 1992 18:48:54 GMT

In article <1992Nov14.044319.13007@leland.Stanford.EDU>  
arto@leland.Stanford.EDU (Artavazd Khachikian) writes:
 
> 	I would be very interested to discuss the actual politics
> in  the CIS countries, especially Russia, both internal and external.
> I wonder if there are any International Relations or Political Science
> students here who can enlighten us on that subject.

Ah, I am a Int'l Relations/PoliSci person but I don't follow Russian
politics that closely anymore.
 
> 	I am following the recent developments in the Moscow
> with concern. The activization of the political struggle between
> the Russian President and the Parliament may lead to further  
deterioration
> of the situation and, god forbid, instability in Russia. There was some
> talk on today`s Russian news about the declarations by the Armed Forces
> saying that they will not intervenve and will not take any  
unconstitutional
> steps in the struggle between the Parliament and the President.
> The very fact of declarations of this kind is alarming. December is 3  
weeks 
> away, and it looks like it is going to be a hot December.

Well, IMHO, Russia is going to the dogs in a big way.  Inflation will be
2,000 per cent this year and the Ruble is falling against the dollar in
the range of 400's Rubles to the dollar.
 
> 	The growing instability in the Northert Caucasus is another
> source of concern. Although some order was restored after the deployment
> of the Russian troops, Russian News reported today about some Chechen
> troops and tanks being moved to the border of Chechnia. Let us count:
> Georgia-Abkhazia, Georgia-Osetia, Ingushia-Osetia, Chechnia-Georgia,
> Chechnia-Russia, Russia-Georgia did we forget anybody - well, to say
> nothing about the good old Karabakh which is already old news for every  
one:
> so we have + Karabakh-Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan-Armenia,  
Armenia-Nakhichevan
> (so far the link ends here). The demarches of the Turkish Army on  
Armenian
> frontieres in the spring of this year were stopped by Russia. So far so  
good.

I think the small wars in the Caucasus will continue for years. Those
small countries have little hope of ever having a decent economy. Some
have oil, etc, but thats it.

[stuff about Russian Role deleted] 
 
> It is frightening
> to think what would happen if this December undermines the Russian 
> stance in the Caucasus, leaving it to the mercy of militant gangs.
> The real anarchy is still to come. We are not talking blown pipes.
> We are talking thousands of deaths, full stop in communications,
> chaos, hunger, war, hostages, terrorism, destabilization and  
desintegration.
> If it is not the case yet.

I thought this was the case.  As far as I know there is war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, etc.  Russia won't be able to accomplish much
unless they want to conquer the place. 
> 
> 	It would be interesting to hear a qualified opinion and
> receive information on this subject.

Democracy's days in Russia are numbered.  Yeltsin is not a real democrat
and that is not what Russia needs now.  Democracy and economic collapse
do NOT mix.  People don't give a damn about voting when they are starving
or being shot at, etc.  Either Yeltsin will assume the mantle of Russian
nationalism or someone else will.  The immediate need for Russia, IMHO,
is an authoritarian regime to create law and order.  Economic development
or recovery cannot occur in a state of anarchy.  Eventually, Russia may
have democracy, then again they may not.  There is nothing sacred about
a representative democracy.

Daniel at the University of Illinois    daniels@sumter.cso.uiuc.edu
Newsgroups: talk.politics.soviet,soc.culture.turkish,talk.politics.mideast