From: irvine@uxh.cso.uiuc.edu (Brent Irvine)
Subject: Re: SOMALIA INVASION?
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1992 13:37:28 GMT

In article <schoinas.724331063@cs.wisc.edu> schoinas@fox.cs.wisc.edu (Yannis Schoinas) writes:
>irvine@uxh.cso.uiuc.edu (Brent Irvine) writes:
>
>>In article <schoinas.724303369@cs.wisc.edu> schoinas@fox.cs.wisc.edu (Yannis Schoinas) writes:
>>>irvine@uxh.cso.uiuc.edu (Brent Irvine) writes:
>
>>>Any opinions on how long the USA troops are going to stay in Somalia
>>>in order to secure the supply lines? One year? Two years? 10 years?
>>Well according to George Bush, they will stay until the supply lines
>>are secure, then be replaced by UN peacekeepers.  It is estimated to
>>take 1-2 months to get the supply lines established and being in the
>>process of replacing US with UN troops when Clinton assumes office.
>Yes, a definite plan. I only hope it is realistic also. What I doubt 
>is how useful it will be in the long run.

We can only hope that it helps in starting the chain of events that
culminates in the end of anarchy for the region...

>
>>>Any particular scheme to stop the 'warlord menace'? What will happen
>>>when the troops leave Somalia?
>>The UN troops will remain in Somalia until a new government can be formed
>>and reestablish peace in the region.
>Don't you think this will take a few years?

It could, but by then the 28,000 US troops will have gone home, being
replaced by UN troops.

>>I think for the time being, however, responding to the gangs with maximum 
>>possible force is the current plan.  And trying to come to a peace accord
>>between factions and form a government in the meantime.
>How stable that government do you think it will be? And for how long?

I have no idea, it could be very stable or not, it all depends on what
happens in the mean time.

>>>Anyway, the problem is that a guerillas don't walk around with a sign
>>>saying: 'Hi, I am going to kill you'. And it doesn't take much for the
>>>situation to explode. And then the question becomes how many of these
>>>28000 you are willing to sacrifice in Somalia. 10,100,1000,10000. 
>>>Choose a number.
>>My, how ominous that sounds.  I doubt it will be the bloodbath you
>>imply - this is not VietNam or even Iraq.  This is more like cleaning
>>up East LA:  A bunch of gangs, order broken down, and
>>trying to give the population at large some relief, and order.
>Sure it's not going to be Vietnam or Iraq. How about Lebanon? 
>I remember from that cable of the US ambassadator in Kenya sth like:
>"If you liked Beirut, you will love Mogantishu."

In the complete dissolution of government, the rise of warlords, and
anarchy, yes.

>>I doubt the situation is as explosive as you imply.  The population at
>>large is NOT going to rise up against the US.  The warlords have so
>>ravaged the population that they were starving, then the same warlords
>>stole all the relief aid distributed, causing further hardship.  Then
>>the US and UN decided 'enough is enough' and went in with the goal of
>>making sure no more aid is lost to these gangs.  I DOUBT that will piss
>>anyone but the warlords off, and their training and weaponry is as such
>>that they will not present a united front (remember that they were fighting
>>EACH OTHER, not an outside force), and the few stands they take will be
>>with trucks with .50cal machineguns on them - no contest.  Also remeber
>>that some of the more powerful warlords have sided with the UN as well
>>(and I know they have their own adjenda, but are iuntelligent enough to
>>work WITH the UN rather than against it).
>I didn't say anything about the population rising against the US.
>But it doesn't take much to have an explosive situation in your
>hands. You are still forgeting that we are not talking about a 
>direct confrontation but rather of a hit-and-run situation. For
>example, a kid just comes close to the troops and throws a grenade
>or someone shoots a US/UN post during the night. 

We should hope since the mission is not one of conquest (Somalia will
still be Somalia, fate determined by its people) or disruptive of its
sovereignty [despite noticeable lack of government], such a threat
will not rear its ugly head.  The next few days/weeks will tell though.

>I guess time will tell. Not having much faith in the qualities of
>the human species, I tend to be quite pessimistic. 

I am just a bit more optimistic than you, but we are not terribly far
apart.

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