From: spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Morris: more fuel for this debate
Date: 10 Oct 92 05:10:49 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: Boo!

In <1992Oct8.233955.240@terminator.cc.umich.edu> sweda@css.itd.umich.edu (Sean Sweda) writes:

>In article <1992Oct7.155250.2575@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:
>>In article <6928@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave) writes:
>>
>>So, you're saying that jack doesn't look like much worse than Abbott despite
>>Abbott's 1.3 lower ERA?
>>
>>
>>Someone should have told that to Stewart last year: he had great run support.
>>Also, Jose Rijo had outstanding run support, the league's best ERA and still
>>managed to win precisely half his starts. (ERA 2.51, RS/9 5.1)
>>

>However, Rijo's record could be explained by the fact that he was on a
>pitch count for the last 2/3 of the season.  Now if your run support stat
>is: Runs Scored by the pitcher's team in his starts / starts by pitcher,
>it could be that the Reds failed to score until after Rijo was yanked
>(which was usually after 6 or 7 innings, I should know cuz I had him on
>one of my BJFB teams).

>If on the other hand your run support stat only gives Rijo credit for
>the runs scored while he was pitching, then his W-L record becomes more
>curious...

Well, I don't think its particularly curious - either his bullpen blew
some games, or the run support was erratic, etc. Getting credit for 15
wins, 6 losses, and 9 no-decisions seems perfectly reasonable given the
fact that Rijo doesn't pitch many complete games.  Also, if i recall
correctly, Rijo allowed an awful lot of unearned runs.  

Does anybody know the average number of no-decisions pitchers with 30+
 starts usually "earn"?

But anyway, to answer your question - the run support number being used
is from Elias, which seems to measure run support in games the pitcher
pitches - not while the pitcher pitches.  However, STATS uses run support
only for the innings which occurred while the pitcher was still in the game,
and Rijo's run support was actually higher by that measurement, 5.64 per 9.

I've never really figured out which was more useful.  I would guess
the STATS figure is more pertinent, but it probably helps to know
both.

The problem with run support is the same as one of the problems with ERA -
its an average, and there are very few data points which go into making
that average.   A low run support figure probably means low run support,
but a hhigh run support figure isn't as clear - its always possible that
a few games with mucho run scoring makes the run support "artificially
high."  Of course, the same thing can happen with an ERA, such as David
Wells' this year.  This is a problem which, I think, the Support-Neutral
Won-Loss Records that Michael Wolverton posts here helps solve to a large
extent.  Of course, we still don't know that erraticness is a trait among
pitchers, and if it is it'll be more obvious that we have to look beyond
the runs allowed average.  (Someone else pointed out here that the value/
non-value of erraticness depends on the erraticness of run support, but I
strongly suspect - though I could be wrong - that erraticness in an offense
isn't a reliable trait.)

I would be nice, though, if we could get a run support figure which measures
the extra marginal utility of each run.

Greg  
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball