HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: warren@cbnewsh.cb.att.com (warren.a.montgomery)
Subject: Do past strategies work on future markets?
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: usa
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 14:49:01 GMT

Many people cite data like "investing in the 10% of the market
with the lowest P/Es earned 3% more than the market as a whole
over the past 30 years" in support of specific theories of stock
market investing.  I wonder, though, whether changes in nature of
how moodern stock investments are managed make any trend of more
than 5 years past useless for future predictions.  Specific
factors that would seem to me to be significantly different are:

Proportion of stock being "Actively Managed" (traded by funds,
pension accounts, or managed individual investor accounts, rather
than being bought and held by small investors or pension funds
that don't actively follow the market or trade).  What proportion
of the overall market is in "actively professionally managed"
accounts?  is this really higher than in the past?

Availability of information/swiftness of trading.  Go back far
enough, and most investors found out about news a week after it
happened and couldn't act on it without another long delay.
Today, news and trades happen in seconds.

Extensive use of futures.  Again I would imagine that this is at
an all time high.

It has been widely recognized that these factors increase
volatility.  They also, however would seem to change the
effectiveness of any strategy, since most strategies for achieving
capital gains basically boil down to knowing and acting on
something before everyone else does, then profiting from the rise
in price that occurs when laate comers try to buy in.  Now, for
any of those time tested strategies, there are 50 mutual funds and
hundreds of other institutional investors following it and able to
buy in sooner and in larger quantity than you probably can.  Comments?

-- 

	Warren Montgomery
	att!iexist!warren
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: acheng@ncsa.uiuc.edu (Albert Cheng)
Subject: Re: CD vs US Savings Bonds
Originator: acheng@shalom.ncsa.uiuc.edu
Organization: Nat'l Ctr for Supercomp App (NCSA) @ University of Illinois
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 17:17:36 GMT


In article <tan.726765405@aries>, tan@aries.scs.uiuc.edu (Lian Tan) writes:
>Could someone tell me what are the disadvantages of US EE Bonds compared
>to short term (6 mo. or 1 yr.) CD's. Any and all opinions are welcome.

For now, EE bonds rate (5.03%) beats short term CD (4%).  You can cash
in EE bonds after 6 months; so there is no disadvantage currently.  The
interest can be deferred (or taxed now) until you cash the bonds.

One mild disadvantage is: EE bonds interest is accured by month.  So,
whether you purchase on the 1st day or the last day of the month, it
accurs interest the same when you redeem it.  Likewise, whether you
redeem it on the 1st or the last day of the month, same amount of
interest.  In theory, you should purchase it the last day of the month
and redeem it the first day of the month.  You just have to change your
mentality about it.

Another problem: after 30 months, the interest accurs every 6 months.
E.g. if you cash in your bonds before the month 37, you lose all
interest since month 30.

You can buy and redeem your EE bonds in many banks with no fee.  Oh,
another annoyance, if you redeem more than a thousand at a time, the
bank won't give you the money.  It checks identification and sends the
bonds to Uncle Sam who will send you the money later.  Of course I
don't see why you can't just visit all banks in your town, cashing
$1000 bonds each visit.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: tatrob@b30.ingr.com (Brian Tatro)
Subject: Dynagen Inc.
Organization: Intergraph
Date: Tue, 5 Jan 1993 17:02:07 GMT

Hi everybody,

	I have some stock in Dynagen (ticker: dygn) and it seems to be going 
up and down at least a dollar over the last half year. Anybody have info on 
this company? 

	Thanks in advance


email: brian@trans2.b30.ingr.com
From: jxs18@po.CWRU.Edu (Jerry Sy)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Morningstar
Date: 5 Jan 1993 17:26:21 GMT
Organization: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (USA)
Reply-To: jxs18@po.CWRU.Edu (Jerry Sy)
NNTP-Posting-Host: hela.ins.cwru.edu


I have read nothing but good comments about Morningstar here in
misc.invest.  and I have no doubt that it does a good job.

but should one be concerned because the fund review you are reading
can be up to 2 months  (actually 18-20 weeks old) old ? and a lot of
things could have happened during that time ?

although past (3 mo,6 mo, 1 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr and 10 yr) performance records
are a good basis for selecting funds, I still think Wealth w/o Risk has
a good point in mentioning that don't just let past performace infulence
your choice, base it on what is going on now.  For example, a fund
might still be earning money according to Morningstar's review 2 months
ago, but it could be losing money now and hence might be better to wait
a little bit, or find another fund.

I posted a question recently about Compuserve's Fundwatch service but did
not get any response.  I read in the Compuserve manual that the data gets
updated every month but I wanted to get a confirmation or expereinces from
other netters here if that is the case, because I do not want to pay
about $28 per hour to get a review for a fund if it is old.  It does give
similar information as Morningstar (alpha, beta, etc, total returns, yield,
etc ).

any comments appreciated.
jerry

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: naz@mickey-csdl.jsc.nasa.gov (Nazareth Bedrossian)
Subject: Re: OutBack SteakHouse (OSSI)
Followup-To: misc.invest
Organization: Draper Lab - Houston
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 18:17:23 GMT

In article <1993Jan12.162528.12882@mlb.semi.harris.com>,
gbrooksh@comanche.ess.harris.com (Greg Brookshire) wrote:
> 
> The three Outback Steakhouse restaurants that I know of (melbourne, FL,
> atlanta, and northern VA) are packed all of the time!  I understand that
> the institutions are already heavily invested in this stock.  Does this
> mean that it is too late to get in, or should that not be a concern?
> 
> Comments?
> 
Add one more to your list. The one in south Houston (Clear Lake/NASA JSC
area) is ALWAYS packed. I regularly drive by it and the parking lot is
always overflowing (you know it because traffic slows down in that area). I
would also be interested in comments about this stock. If I am not mistaken
it has already doubled last year.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: temiraso@vela.acs.oakland.edu (thomas e mirasol)
Subject: Re: Borland
Organization: Oakland University, Rochester MI.
Distribution: usa
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 1993 03:03:11 GMT

In article <-f!3drp@rpi.edu> sood@moon.ral.rpi.edu (Deepak Sood) writes:
>Hello,
>
>   Does anybody have an idea why Borland is trading so low these
>days? It has been losing constantly and I believe that the high
>last year was around 80. Is it a good buy?
>
>Thanks,
>Deepak.

I looked at borland back in March when it was still priced at around
$80.  It was highly priced (over priced I would say) because of the
good product cycle the company had.  In 1991, the company had brought
out 10 new/upgraded products which led to increased revenues.  After
the company acquired Ashton Tate (DBase), prospects looked even better
for the company.  In the software industry, it is very important to keep
on introducing new products and upgrades, especially software that runs
under Windows.  Borland, unfortunately, has not delivered Windows
versions of its popular products (Quattro, Paradox, DBase IV) on time
an in this industry, its also important to try and bring out your
product first.  The result was lower revenues for the year which was
below expectations.  This affected the company's stock price.

Comments welcome.

-Tom M.
From: etpeters@dal.mobil.com (E. T. Peterson(Eric))
Subject: Re: US vs Foreign stock markets
Organization: Mobil Exploration & Producing Technical Center(MEPTEC), Dallas. 
Distribution: usa
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 19:30:50 GMT

In article <1iqfugINN6no@network.ucsd.edu>, mbk@lyapunov.ucsd.edu (Matt Kennel) writes:
|> 
|> What are the net's thoughts in investing in USA vs. foreign stock markets.
|> 
|> Say you wish to pick a stock-market fund, of the growth type.
|> 
|> Has the US market already discounted the recovery?   Is it time to
|> move into Europe?  Or even Japan?  
|> 
|> Any recommendations for noload funds for these purposes.

Keep in mind that the foreign stock market is not the only thing you need
to analyse.  The currency exchange rate is also a big factor.  For example,
in the last 6 months the Swiss Franc has fallen over 15% relative to the 
US$.  So if you had invested in a "Swiss mutual fund", the Swiss stocks
would need to have risen over 15% for you to just break even.

On the other hand if the $ drops a lot, you can make money in the foreign
stocks even if they drop a little.

*********************************************************************
Eric Peterson                  The sooner you fall behind,
Research Geophysicist          the more time you'll have to catch up!
(214) 951-3251
etpeters@.dal.mobil.com
*********************************************************************
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: amjad@vtopus.cs.vt.edu (Amjad Daoud)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: investing $20
Date: 9 Jan 93 04:42:33 GMT
Reply-To: amjad@vtopus.cs.vt.edu (Amjad Daoud)
Organization: Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University


You can buy 1000,000 shares at no par value in one starting company.
If you need a list of such companies please send a check of
$19.95 to . Well I send you the address if you are interested.

Please note that you still can buy 1000,000 shares for the $0.05.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: kpm@hpuerca.atl.hp.com (Kaushik Mehta)
Subject: ?s on BONDS
Summary: Misc. ?s on Municipal Bond
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 21:05:21 GMT
Organization: Hewlett-Packard NARC Atlanta
Keywords: BONDS

Yesterday, I received a list of Municipal Bonds offered in the State of GA
(Georgia). One of the bond had a yield of 4.5% and I was not sure how it
was calculated. Perhaps, somehow who is very familiar with BONDS can 
enlighten me in this matter.

RATING   PAR       ITEM      COUPON    MATURITY    YIELD   PRICE    CUSIP
------   ---       ----      ------    --------    -----   -----    -----

Aaa/AAA   40   Cobb Co W&S    9.5      07/01/1996   4.5    117.770   190828RU4


Say if I bought a $10,000 BOND today. Its maturity is in 14 months (07/01/1996)
The Coupon Rate is 9.5%, which I believe will be distributed quaterly.
ie. $950.00 will be given every 3 months. So in 14 months it will be $13,300
Say, if I donot sell my bond before the maturity date then at the time of
redemption, I will be getting the PAR value of $40.00
So I made $13,300 + $40 = $13,340

For my $10,000 initial investment, I made $3,340 which gives me a yield 
of 3.34 %

Am I calculating this incorrectly or the listing is presenting an incorrect
value ?

Thanks for the input.


Kaushik Mehta
email: kpm@hpuerca.atl.hp.com

Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: kizior@rtsg.mot.com (Paul Kizior)
Subject: Re: Mortgage or retirement
Organization: Motorola Inc., Cellular Infrastructure Group
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 14:57:47 GMT

I've looked at everyone's comparison of 15 yr. and 30 yr. mortgages.
The main point that everyone is MISSING is that if you get a 30 yr. 
mortgage and put some money in an IRA or other tax-free account, 
EVERYONE is assuming that you will stay in that house for the entire
30 yrs. !!!!  Granted, some people will but the majority will not.
If you get a 30 yr. mortgage and stay only, say, 5-7 yrs., the amount
you paid on the principle is very small.  Then you buy another house
and pay closing costs and maybe a higher rate and (magically) you find
yourself owing (on principal) possibly as much (or more) as you did 5-7 yrs.
ago. This is a VERY important point!  When calculations and comparisons
are done, keep in mind how long you realistically will stay in that
house.

I'm sure everyone knows that the first years of a 30 yr. loan most of 
the money paid is interest.  You are not reducing your principal debt.
That is why banks LOVE to give 30 yr. loans!!!  They KNOW they will 
make lots of money on the majority of the people.  
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: temiraso@vela.acs.oakland.edu (thomas e mirasol)
Subject: Re: Misc.Invest sentiment
Organization: Oakland University, Rochester MI.
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 04:13:08 GMT

In article <6chi03BSc8am00@amdahl.uts.amdahl.com> fierro@uts.amdahl.com (Doug Fierro) writes:
>In article <1993Jan10.005418.22005@leland.Stanford.EDU> bohnert@leland.Stanford.EDU (matthew bohnert) writes:
>>Having read misc.invest for several years, I would like to add my
>>two cents worth on a sentiment indicator. 
>>
>>IMHO, the number of new posts that involve ...`I'm new to investing,
>>how do I get started in the stock market', or `...I'd think I'd like
>>to trade stocks for the first time, how do I open an account...', etc., etc., 
>>is hitting an all-time high in recent weeks.  I'm not trying to insult or 
>>offend anyone, but many contrarians see the flood of newcomers to the market 
>>as an indicator of peaks.  Perhaps just one more log on the fire, I guess.
>>
>>Of course, I could be wrong.
>>
>
>  Could be attributed to a lot of things:
>
>  1) more people have net access now than a year or two ago.
>
>  2) interest rates on investments in which the principal is not
>     at risk basically suck, and as more CDs come due, more people
>     might want to find alternative investment possibilities that
>     pay more than 3-4% a year (and willing to take the associated
>     risk along with that decision).
>
>  3) More people in the technological industries are coming into
>     money that they did not have to play with in the past- a
>     possible indicator that the recession is/was not as harsh

>     on the people in those industries?  (since the net is not
>     a real representative of the U.S. population, it's hard to
>     say on this one).
>
>  4) People don't know what the hell a FAQ list is :-)
>
>   etc..
>   etc..
>
>  Doug
>-- 

Here's my two cents worth:

1.  This may just be an affirmation that baby boomers are now more aware
    and concerned about their future and their children's future and
    are are now starting to think about investing for it.

    Just today, Comerica Bank in Michigan announced the acquisition  of
    First of Michigan, a brokerage firm.  Just recently, the same bank
    merged with Manufacturer's Bank (also of MI).  Radio reports said
    that the bank foresees a boom in investments by  BBs.



Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: shital@tss.com (Shital Anagol)
Subject: Re: Managing Your Money (was Re: Quicken & Investments)
Reply-To: shital@tss.com (Shital Anagol)
Organization: Teknekron Software Systems. Inc.
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 01:48:31 GMT

I heard that using Quicken we can import stock price information from a file that is generated from downloading the stock prices from Prodigy.
Is this possible with Managing Your Money (MYM)?   I know we can get stock quotes in MYM through Compuserv or Dow Jones etc..  But we already
have Prodigy and don't want to spend extra on other services.

Please reply to my email address below.

Thanks in advance.
-- 

*****************************************************************
*     Shital G. Anagol			Email:	shital@tss.com	*
*     Teknekron Software Systems.	Tel:	(415) 325-1025	*
*****************************************************************
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Cyclical Stocks
From: gary@cdthq.UUCP (Gary Heston)
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 93 07:22:07 CST
Organization: Garys' Home for Obsolete Computers

klur@cbnewsb.cb.att.com (david.s.klur) writes:

> I'm interested in investing in cyclical stocks and trying to
> ride the "waves" - what is the term for this kind of investing?

"Market timing". A good way to make a small fortune in the stock 
market, presuming you have a large one to start with.

> Anyway, are there any publications which identify cyclical
> stocks (newsletters, etc)?

That's what *most* of the newsletters do.

Gary Heston, at home....
gary@cdthq.uucp
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: lib@cbnews.cb.att.com (Lib)
Subject: Re: have to use tax 1040 form?
Organization: AT&T
Distribution: usa
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 13:13:43 GMT

In article <1993Jan8.021824.18337@tandem.com> pearson_steven@tandem.com (Steven R. Pearson) writes:
>In article <3JAN199311480186@csa2.lbl.gov>, schindler@csa2.lbl.gov (AARON SCHINDLER) writes:
>> 
>> In article <1hvmq9INN3ga@CASPER.NA.CS.YALE.EDU>, chang-mark-yan-ming@cs.yale.edu (Mark Yan-Ming Chang) writes...
>> 
>> >The tax instructions say one needs to use form 1040 if one has capital gains.
>> >I guess this includes capital gains from mutual funds. True?
>
>However, if your capital gains are only from capital gain distributions from funds
>(as opposed to sales of fund shares), then you don't have to fill out the Schedule D
>(there's a line one the front/income side of the 1040 for that).  Gotta find
>some small solace at tax time...

  
One further question. This year I bought mutual funds for the first
time. Have capital gains from distributions but neither gains nor
losses from mutual fund sales. I also have gains and losses from stock sales.
  
I know the gains/losses from stocks go on schedule D. In this case
where I have both stock and mutual fund gains do the mutual fund
gains also go on schedule D or on that line you mentioned on the
front of 1040? If they go on the front of 1040 what happens to my
$3000 worth of gains that I can offset with losses? I assume my gains
from distributions can be offset by losses. True? Untrue? That happens on
Schedule D. If I put my mutual gains on the front of 1040 can I
offset them with losses? Seems to me in this case everything would
have to go on schedule D. (I realize in the case you mentioned there
were only mutual fund gains but what about my case?)
  
Any input will be appreciated.

Newsgroups: misc.invest,misc.taxes
From: acheng@ncsa.uiuc.edu (Albert Cheng)
Subject: Re: Losing lottery tickets
Originator: acheng@shalom.ncsa.uiuc.edu
Organization: Nat'l Ctr for Supercomp App (NCSA) @ University of Illinois
Distribution: usa
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 16:41:31 GMT
Keywords: investment?


In article <1993Jan6.143519.6752@porthos.cc.bellcore.com>, keith@iscp.bellcore.com (Keith Hawkins) writes:
>
>
>On a related issue:
>
>When are lottery tickets deductible??  Do you have to
>have winnings first??  (This is what I assume.)
>
>In other words, if I played $100 worth of lottery
>tickets which didn't win a penny, would I be able
>to claim the $100 as a capital loss??   
>
>I would assume that I couldn't unless one of the
>tickets paid off say $1000 and I could then
>say that my gain is really $900 because I can
>deduct the cost of realizing my $1000 gain.
>
>Is this how the IRS sees it??  Anyone know for sure?

Yes, you can deduct loss on schedule A on line 25 (misc. deductions)
but gambling loss deduction cannot exceed gain which must be included
in income.  Check your 1040 instruction for detail.
From: jimo@cisco.com (Jim Oneil)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Insider trading laws.
Date: 6 Jan 1993 06:43:56 GMT
Organization: cisco Systems, Incorporated
Distribution: usa
NNTP-Posting-Host: stout.cisco.com

Insider trading is not usually applied to all employees.  Primarily
the individuals affected are those at a high enough level of the
company to know enough of the details of the financial condition
of the company on a timely basis.

That aside, it is important to note that if an individual with 
enough information about sales or shipments on a normal basis 
made trades at "interesting" points in time.  Most individuals
in these situations are advised of the issues by their managers.
In unusual circumstances other individuals might be looked at.

Most employees can find out alot through unofficial channels.  This
doesn't mean that you can short the stock a week before an announcement
of lower sales/earnings etc. without concern.  And you never want to 
make your first sale or short just before such an event would occur.

Most companies I've worked for establish a "window" for appropriate 
stock transactions.  The window starts after the quarterly earnings 
are announced and ends about a month later, before the next quarter
results are really known.  The windows apply primarily to management
or key individuals, but are recommended to everyone.

Obviously these are my opinions and I can't speak for cisco on these
matters.

-Jimo


In article <1993Jan4.231740.29699@lgc.com>, thiru@lgc.com (Thiru Bollam) writes:
|> 	I'm trying to find out if employees of the company, they are working
|> 	for, are forbidden from selling/buying shares of the same company 
|> 	during specified period every quarter? What type of employees are
|> 	covered under insider trading laws?
|> 
|> 	Thanks in advance.
|> 
|> Thiru
 
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: ask@cbnews.cb.att.com (Arthur S. Kamlet)
Subject: Re: Need advice to lower taxes
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories,  Columbus, Ohio
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 23:59:45 GMT

In article <C0HqFE.53z@news.cso.uiuc.edu> acheng@ncsa.uiuc.edu (Albert Cheng) writes:
>
>In article <16262@auspex-gw.auspex.com>, daryl@bovill.auspex.com (Daryl Starr) writes:
>>Is there anyway to shelter capital gains for stocks?
>>
>>For instance. Is there a way to generate losses quickly for a given year which
>>will reduce the net gain for the same year?
>
>1) Near year end, buy shares of mutual funds that have realized capital
>loss to be distributed.  When the funds x-div (distribute the loss),
>you have a bunch of paper loss to offset your current gain.  Of course,
>you should not blindly buy a loser fund.  You should buy into funds you
>think that have hit the bottom and on the way up.

Interesting.

Except I don't know of any mutual funds which distribute losses.  If
anything, the tax effect of the  losses are retained, and carried
forward.  This means if next year that fund has a spectacularly
large amount of capital gains, those gains can be offset by carried
forward losses.  Same thing you can do on your personal return.


Do you know of a fund which distributes losses?  How would this
work?
-- 
Art Kamlet  a_s_kamlet@att.com  AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
From: lv0e+@andrew.cmu.edu (Lisa Laverne Vaughan)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: < $5000:don't buy stock?
Date: 5 Jan 93 04:28:42 GMT
Article-I.D.: andrew.kfGNgOa00WB=MLDEw=
Organization: Psychology, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA

I've just recently discovered the need to have to manage my money (gee, what
a concept).  So I've been speaking with a financial planner who's advice it
is hard for me to judge since I have no real experience in stocks and mutual
funds.  

I have set as a goal for my $$$$ to amass as much principal (or
something that can be converted to principal) within the next 2 years so that
I can use the interest to subsidize the considerably smaller income I will
have in 2 years (i.e. I'm taking time off in 2 years).

She's guiding me strongly into mutual funds with an equity portfolio, or
junk bonds.  I suggested investing some of my $$$$ into hi-tech stocks
(Apple, Claris, MicroSoft) and her reply was that $5000, even $10000 was
just too little of a sum to invest in stocks, even in stocks that currently
pay a decent dividend.

could someone please explain her comment to me???? thankx, ...lisa
Newsgroups: misc.invest