From: genetic+@pitt.edu (Dr. Dave)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Still more on Don Mattingly
Date: 5 Nov 92 17:35:15 GMT
Organization: Department of Industrial Engineering

Raph Kasper wrote an admirably calm and rational defense of Don Mattingly's
defense, and some aspects of his offense.  I don't agree with some of his
points, but I'll try to maintain the pleasant, collegial tone he has set.

Thus spake kasper@sscvx1.ssc.gov:

>all manner of range factor and defensive average numbers seem to miss many of
>the important aspects of fielding for a first baseman.  

Anticipating the discussion to follow, I'll concede the scooped throws and
pickoff plays up front.  Unless Sherri Nichols has access to data I don't
know about, nobody is tracking this in a constructive way.  I'd love to be
corrected if I'm wrong about this.

>Those who say that Mattingly is an "average" fielder, or not a good fielder,
>have clearly not been watching him.  

I think we would argue, rather, that watching him isn't going to tell you
enough.  In particular, it won't tell you how he compares with other first
basemen; there's no way to get a contrast by only watching Mattingly.  This
is a prime reason why managers and players are bad potential Gold Glove 
voters: they don't see enough of opposing players over the course of a season
to make good eyeball judgements.  To the Atlanta Braves, Jose Lind probably
looks average.

>Go to a game and watch how quickly,
>smoothly, effortlessly he fields ground balls.  Watch how he invariably picks
>up the ball in perfect position to make throws to second, when necessary, or
>first and watch how unerringly accurate those throws are.  

All of this is nice (and, as a fan of the game, I *enjoy* watching Mattingly
field his position, because he *is* exceptionally fluid and graceful), but if
it doesn't translate into converting batted balls into outs at a higher rate
then it isn't helping the team, and isn't making him a "better fielder".  The
real question is whether Mattingly's grace and fluidity is allowing him to
make more successful plays than other first basemen make.  Does he field more
balls?  Does he have a higher assist rate?  I love his fundamentals, but if
his perfect positioning and accurate arm aren't gunning down a larger fraction
of lead runners than McGwire's lesser fundamentals and arm, then why should
Don get "style points"?

All of the pure counts that we can make show that Don converts batted balls
into outs at almost exactly the league average rate, in a league that has a
number of less-than-stellar fielding first basemen in it.  It sure looks to 
me like Don's outstanding fundamentals and positioning and such are allowing
him to remain tolerable defensively despite his back condition.  I find that
amazing, and give him tons of credit for managing it.  But it doesn't make 
his relative performance any higher.

As I said above, I also concede that Mattingly is an exceptional receiver of
throws.  I don't have any good way to measure that, but I simply can't imagine
that the number of bad throws saved by Mattingly that wouldn't be saved by
McGwire is even close to high enough to account for the number of ground balls
turned into outs by McGwire that get by Don.  Again, if someone can show me
reasonable evidence hinting that I'm wrong, I'll recant.

>One point on Mattingly's hitting.  It his true that he rarely walks and that
>this holds down his OBP.  But I think it is wrong to attribute this to
>"impatience."  It is difficult for players who almost always make contact with
>the ball to walk a lot because they tend to get the ball in play early in the
>count.  (This is a testable proposition - has any one examined this?) 

I can make a _prima_facie_ case that this can't be the explanation:  Wade
Boggs.  Boggs has the highest contact rate in the majors.  Every year (except
1992 :-( ) you hear about how Wade Boggs has only swung and missed 9 times all
year, or some such.  And yet he walks 100 times a year, regular as clockwork.

Again, thanks for the laid back article.  I hope I've followed your lead; if
not, any stridency was unintentional.

-- 
       David Tate        |"Out of the dugout endlessly swinging,
 dtate@unix.cis.pitt.edu | Out of the manager's throat, the sound fundamentals,
 Prof. of Story Problems | Out of the six-month season..."            
 Member ORSA, TIMS, SABR | 	Walt "Lefty" Whitman