From: fester@island.COM (Mike Fester)
Subject: Re: The Northern Islands
Organization: /usr/local/rn/organization
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1992 14:49:50 GMT

In article <4007@fcs280s.ncifcrf.gov> masuda@fcs280b.ncifcrf.gov (Michiaki Masuda) writes:
>In article <1992Sep28.152257.2783@island.COM> fester@island.COM (Mike Fester) writes:

>>Russia does not have the economic might to start another arms race. However, 
>>they DO have the nuclear weapons to remain a very dangerous power in unstable
>>hands.
>
>     I still don't see the scenario how the Japanese money or giving up
>the islands would make the hands stable. Is Yeltsin going to conciliate
>them with money?

The money is needed to improve infrastructure, update factories, farming 
methods, pay off foreign debt, develop resources, etc, in short all the things
needed to establish a working (and most likely), stable economy. Lack of this,
and people may decide that a military gov't might be better. 

>>It has been my impression that many Japanese are almost completely unaware of
>>the events surrounding the Soviet-Japanese relations in WWII. I have yet to
>>meet any Japanese who was aware of the Japanese attacks on Soviet positions
>>along the Manchurian border. Most of the Japanese I have talked with seem to
>>become a little less certain of their moral claim to those islands when they
>>find out about it.

>   This is a good back-up for showing that at least most of the Japanese that
>Fester-san talked with knew about the islands issue. Or were they all 
>"provincial nationalists"?

??? So basically, how well-informed ARE the Japanese about the pre-1940
skirmishes? HOw much did you learn about it in high school or college?

>>>However, accusing someone of not giving up or suspending a legitimate claim
>>>would not be so diplomatic, either.
>
>>Surely, the point of this whole debate is how "legitimate" that claim is.
>
>   Then, how does this sound?
>Accusing someone of not giving up a claim before examining its legitimacy
>would not be diplomatic, either.

Depends. Mexico can "claim" Texas if they like. We (and Texas) are unlikely to
give the claim much credence. 

In any event, Japan can certainly get the islands back if she wants. She'll 
just have to pay for them (or wait a LONG time).

>>>   Boris might have been able to hear the words after a tough negotiation.
>>>Did he just chicken out? Or is it taking long for him to learn how to say,
>>>"Thank you" in Japanese?

>>"Thank you" for what?

>     A cup of nice green tea, of course 8-).
>     What was he gonna come to Japan for?

Money.

>>It is difficult to see how Japan can be flattered by this.
>
>   No one ever has given a sh*t about the Northern Islands dispute between
>Japan and Russia. For example, I don't think that there have been many 
>Americans who were aware of this issue until recently. The issue has been
>just one of trivia happening at the end of the world. Only after USSR collapsed,
>people seem to have started to talk about how much Japan could contribute to 
>the world peace relating the islands issue to it. Wouldn't it make Japan feel
>like, "Gee, I didn't know that I'm so influential"?

Actually, it hasn't been that big of a deal to THEM (Japan) until just recently.
Not surprising, then, that no one else cared much about it. 

>> Japanese money can
>>certainly help Russia. Japanese intransigence helps no one, not even themselves,
>>unless of course, Japan stands to gain by a LESS stable nuclear power in the
>>region.

>     As I already mentioned, I have no objection to Japane's financial aid to
>Russia. I'm saying that intermingling two issues - money and islands - might
>not be the way to go either for Russia or Japan. If the "Japanese
>intransigence" is useless or even obnoxious, how could the obstinate attitude
>of the Russian government, which was typically demonstrated by the 
>cancellation of Yeltsin's visit, be helpful?

They know they've always got something Japan wants. It can be used at any time
do get some concession, or do generate other forms of income (leasing fishing
rights, casino construction, etc). If they give the islands back, with nothing
in return, they've lost a bargainning chip. If they get back on their feet
without Japan's help, they can be magnanimous and give up the islands gratis.
If any sort of hostilities break out in the region, the islands make nice
bases. 


Mike
-- 
Disclaimer - I'm only doing what the little voices tell me to do.