From: dean@vexcel.com (dean alaska)
Subject: Re: ZERO Nuclear impact (was: Is car pooling for real? etc)
Organization: VEXCEL Corporation, Boulder, CO
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1992 15:04:23 GMT

In article <1992Jul22.221535.11132@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU> crb7q@kelvin.seas.Virginia.EDU (Cameron Randale Bass) writes:
>In article <1992Jul22.210930.18559@vexcel.com> dean@vexcel.com (dean alaska) writes:
>>In article <1992Jul22.200320.7520@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU> crb7q@kelvin.seas.Virginia.EDU (Cameron Randale Bass) writes:
>>>
>>>    Agreed completely.  And for around $25,000, I could do just that.
>>>    Fortunately, power does not cost me anywhere near as much as the
>>>    amortization and maintenence costs (even for all the machines that 
>>>    my wife and I rely on to work as well as our household appliances).
>>>
>>>    And my subdivision does not allow windmills ...
>>>
>>But a utility could install these more cheaply than they could a
>>huge new coal or nuclear plant.
>
>    If they could, they would.  After all they're in it for the money.
>    I notice that Luz went belly up;  PV is much worse.

There is a lot of inertia in utilities.  Engineers like to build what
they know, and most aren't familiar with these technologies.  Another
problem is rating formulas required by PUCs usually use cost
comparisons that don't take long-term savings of renewables into
account.  This actually prevents utilities from investing more
dollars at the start for long-term savings.
>
>>>     If one assumes market efficiency, there is always a sacrifice 
>>>     in cutting electricity usage.  
>>
>>The upfront capital costs will be paid for with the savings.  Such
>>efficiency strategies could be used to prevent the need for new
>>capacity until PV is ready.  PG&E in CA plans to meet 75% of its
>>new capacity requirements over the next decade or two with efficiency
>>and the other 25% with renewables.
>
>     Then I suspect that economic growth will not be concentrated
>     in PG&E-space.
>
This statement indicates that you are not so open-minded as your
"Show me" statement belows indicates.  Why do you doubt their planning?
I would point out that CA utilities use increased efficiency to generate
"negawatts" during the 80's and had a very strong economy.

>>>     I have absolutely no fear of sustainables, just a fear of being
>>>     led down the garden path by the incorrect economic assumptions
>>>     of advocates.
>>>
>>>     Show me a renewable system that competes economically with 
>>>     the service I get from Virginia Power, and I'll switch tomorrow.
>>>     (Oh by the way, I'm not going to rewire all of my capital goods
>>>     in anticipation).
>>>
>>Hybrid solar thermal plants (they use some natural gas, too) are creating
>>100's of MW for the grid at about $.085/kwh now.  PV may not be ready for
>>utility scale usage now, but it may be by the time many coal plants are
>>retired.
>
>     In Virginia?  You must be joking.  As far as 'may be' goes, we
>     can never rely on guesses like this for something as critical as 
>     power generation.

Solar can be used in the east, though not as economically as in the
southwest.  Renewables will work best if they can be placed in the
most appropriate environment and their power distributed over the
grid to other areas.  I don't know if the grid has the capacity for this,
but I assume it could be enhanced if necessary.
>
>     Of course, if you are talking about Luz, they went belly up.  Not the
>     most promising example for other power producers to follow, though
>     it was a noble effort.

Market conditions are not good for independent producers of renewables
like LUZ, as described in the January issue of Solar Today.  Nevertheless,
the technology has survived even if the company didn't.  Luz served as
an inovator in an industry that is lacking in innovation.
>
>                                 dale bass
>--
>C. R. Bass                                           crb7q@virginia.edu
>Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
>University of Virginia
>Charlottesville, Virginia                            (804) 924-7926


-- 

		dingo in boulder	(dean@vexcel.com)
Newsgroups: sci.environment,sci.geo.meteorology,sci.skeptic