From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:GHANA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -- WILL RAWLINGS WIN?
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 02:01:42 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Africa, west
Title: GHANA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -- WILL RAWLINGS WIN?


an inter press service feature

by ruby ofori

accra, nov 2 (ips) -- charisma and dynamism may not see ghana's
jerry rawlings through tuesday's presidential election.

the darling of the international monetary fund (imf) is
tipped to lose the first multiparty elections in 13 years if
they are free and fair, predict political pundits here.

challengers to the 45-year-old rawlings are a lucklustre
bunch, including history prof albert adu-boahen, former u.n.
peacekeeping commander in lebanon, gen emmanuel erskine,
millionaire businessperson kwabena darko and former president
hilla limann.

after a decade of well-meaning dictatorship that began as a
socialist experiment and ended as the model of world bank
structural adjustment in africa, ghanaians ''just want a
change'', says private newspaper owner, kofi coomson.

others like jake obetsebi-lamptey, head of the opposition
national patriotic party (npp) publicity campaign, believes most
of the 8.2 million voters will revert to their traditional
two-party habits.

since independence from britain in 1957 ghanaians have either
been supporters of the socialist convention people's party (cpp)
founded by the first president, kwame nkrumah, or the rightwing
united party (up).

the up has now metamorphosed into the npp under adu-boahen's
leadership. having overcome divisions and what obetsebi-lamptey
terms ''our tendency for self-immolation'', it will gain 52
percent of the presidential votes, he predicts.

two newspaper polls are more generous giving the npp 57
and 58 percent. 'the mirror', a state-owned weekly, also
suggests the npp is the stronger of the two main contenders. the
other main contender is rawling's national democratic congress
(ndc).

the fiery pilot's increasing isolation from former advisers
have made him more dependent on wife nana konadu and the head of
the '31 december movement', cecilia korenteng. they are not
keeping him properly informed of his real chances, say insiders.

the women's '31 december movement' is named after the day
(dec. 31, 1981) when rawlings staged his second coup against the
civilian government of hilla limann. (more/ips)


ghana: presidential (2)

during its decade in power the pndc resorted to heavy-handed
-- and later innovative -- attempts to break ghana's two-party
stranglehold.

first, the pndc banned political parties, jailed their
leaders and set up a local government system of representatives
elected on non-party platforms.

these efforts failed when donor pressure intensified
following events in eastern europe and pro-human rights
activists at home grew more assertive in their demands for a
return to multiparty politics.

the government has allegedly sponsored a number of old
politicians to split up the cpp ranks into the national
convention party (ncp), the national independence party, the
people's heritage and people's national party.

the ncp is now in formal alliance with rawlings' ndc. having
divided the cpp, rawlings could embrace their dissillusioned
supporters under his alliance with the ncp.

but the npp resisted factionalism, recalling its defeat in
the last elections in 1979 when the up split. to remain unified,
the npp even went as far as making its ambitious presidential
aspirants swear an oath to abide by the congress choice of
leader.

although he faces a strong opposition, rawlings' supporters
say he will win by capturing two thirds of the old cpp vote and
a third of the traditional npp electorate.

obetsebi-lamptey is confident, however, that ghana is about
to replay the 1979 elections. he concedes rawlings will win a
substantial albeit insufficient proportion of the votes.

a second ballot is highly likely if neither of the two main
contenders achieves a majority 51 percent. in this scenario,
adu boahen's pact with limann may ensure his win.

on the other hand, say rawlings supporters, nkrumahaist
voters may choose rawlings rather than have anything to do with
their decades-old enemies.

anything is possible nov 3. the rural voters -- the bulk of
the electorate -- may swing heavily in rawlings' favour for his
down-to-earth populism.

the question tuesday will be whether the ''third force''
which rawlings represents, will make a credible showing or
whether voters will revert to regionalism, tribalism and the
entrenched political affiliations of families which go back
into the mists of time. (end/ips/ro/oa/apc/92)