From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1992 07:41:06 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               13 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 287, 10/13/92
10.7 FLUX=108.7  90-AVG=118        SSN=070      BKI=3322 3442  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B4.9     FLU1=4.1E+05  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=3222 3443  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=031,021,012,011,022,042,061,017   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C7.1   @ 2021UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 0058UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2105UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2340UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= -2.9DB @ 0515UT     PCA-MIN= -3.8DB @ 1235UT    PCA-AVG= -3.2DB
BOUTF-MAX=55428NT @ 1234UT   BOUTF-MIN=55384NT @ 2026UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+153NT@ 1646UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-001NT@ 2359UT  G7-AVG=+087,+036,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+149NT@ 1723UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-031NT@ 1723UT  G6-AVG=+096,-015,+027
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,110;SESC:110,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,010/015,025,020
    KFCST=3213 2111 1113 2111  27DAY-AP=011,076   27DAY-KP=2342 2332 5677 5455
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@1615UTC;**SWEEP:IV=2@1609UTC;**245STRM:1544-1551UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued low.  However, several interesting flares were
observed today that lacked definite optical correlations.  The first was a
long-duration class C5.0 event at 16:14 UT.  This flare was accompanied by
moderate Type II and IV sweeps.  A second more significant (in terms of
x-rays) long-duration class C7.1 flare was observed at 20:21 UT.  No sweeps
were reported in conjunction with this latter flare, although it was
significantly longer in both x-ray rise and decay times than the earlier C5
flare.  Surging and observations of flare loops were reported on the
northeast limb near N18, suggesting the source of this activity may lie
behind the east limb.  The responsible region should rotate into view in the
next day or two.

     Region 7306 (S08W59) continued to decay and simplifiy throughout the
day.  The region also became increasingly dormant and is not expected to
contribute anything more energetic than small C-class flares.

     Three new regions were numbered today:  Regions 7309 (S16W25), 7310
(N09E53), and 7311 (S17E60).

     Solar activity is expected to continue mostly low.  There is an
increasing possibility for M-class flare activity from the region just beyond
the northeast limb.  Todays mid to high-level C-class flares and their
characteristics suggest the group should be M-class capable when it rotates
into view.  There are no regions due to rotate onto the disk near this
position.  Additionally, there have not yet been any reports of abnormal Ca
XV emissions from this area of the limb.  The region will be monitored
closely over the next several days.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled until approximately
15:00 UT.  At that time, a mild enhancement was observed that continued
through most of the day.  The source of this weak disturbance may have been
related to the C8 flare with Type II sweep of 11 October.  The field is
expected to continue mostly quiet to unsettled for most of 14 October.  An
increase to active levels (with possible minor storm periods) is possible on
15 October due to a well placed coronal hole.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  High
latitude paths continued to observe slightly below-normal propagation with
moderate night-sector signal instabilities.  Conditions are expected to
remain near-normal over the low and middle latitude paths throughout 14
October.  Slight degradation is expected on 15 October in response to
anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic activity.  No significant
disturbances are expected at this time.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7306  S08W59  285  0060 CAO  05  009 BETA
7307  S18W14  240  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7309  S16W25  251  0010 CRO  04  002 BETA
7310  N09E53  173  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7311  S17E60  166  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7300  N14W83  309                    PLAGE
7308  N09W46  272                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 OCTOBER TO 16 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7291 S05   132
7289 S10   104


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1600 1614 1630              C5.0        300 86     II/IV


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/B1615             A1642                RSP    C5.0   30  2  2
13/ 1859     2021     2103                LDE    C7.1  124


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
61   N37E19 N35E06 N48E05 N50E08  219  ISO   POS   003 10830A
62   N37E51 N26E36 N35E28 N37E51  195  ISO   POS   003 10830A

NOTE: The southern polar coronal hole has an extension to S28 presently at
      the central meridian as inferred by Helium 10830A observations.

**  End of Daily Report  **