From: tut@cairo.Eng.Sun.COM (Bill "Bill" Tuthill)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: another stock market crash? '29 wasn't a surprise.
Date: 5 Oct 1992 18:36:56 GMT
Organization: Sun Microsystems Inc., Mountain View, CA
Distribution: na
NNTP-Posting-Host: cairo

pvonk@scott.skidmore.edu (Pierre VonKaenel) writes:
> 
> Correct me if I'm wrong, but.... although the '29 crash included a big
> one day drop, wasn't the market generally going down for a year before
> that day, and didn't a lot of investors see the writing on the wall
> and get out in time?  

Kinda, but not for a year.  The DJIA made a high in August of 1929, just
as in 1987.  Most investors did not see the writing on the wall, except for
that perennial wise-guy Bernard Baruch, who got out of the market in 1928
and is still out!!!  Here's something from my archives.


Notes from October 1929 WSJ, by Barry Schein

Sat 9/21           455.59 -4.61
London Stock slump story.  Talk of bear raid, selling pressure,
maybe due to London.  Headline: Stock Boom Helps Tax Revenue Rise.

Tue 9/24           451.56 -3.81
Stocks Irregular.  General Selling Movement.

Wed 9/25           442.44 -9.12
Stock Leaders Sag in Wave of Liquidation; 863 issues dealt in on
exchange.  What might be characterised as a mystery decline
developed on the Stock Exchange.  It was called a mystery decline
because of the sudden and unexplained turn from strength to
weakness, and because no one appeared capable of offering a
plausible excuse for the liquidation.

Thu 9/26            441.72 -.72
Toppling Market Rallied by Bankers.  Unlimited buying orders send
stocks upwards after break of 5 to 15 points; much of losses
regained.  Nervous and jumpy because of the recessions of the
last few days and because of the wild rumors about brokerage firm
failures - all of them untrue - flying about the street.

Fri 9/27           448.18 +6.46
Bank of England raises discount rate from 51/2 to 61/2 % to
conserve gold.  Stocks recover.  Everywhere the discussion
appeared to centre on when will the bull movement be resumed?

Sat 9/28          436.43 -11.75
Stocks were driven down at a furious rate yesterday; almost the
entire stock exchange lost yielding to the most aggressive
selling pressure in weeks.  Many Wall Street brokers expressed
the opinion last night that the distress selling...was about
complete.

Tue 10/1           435.19 -4.91
Renewed decline in stocks; with a partial recovery.

Wed 10/2           431.13 -4.06
Pressure of stocks in the market caused another break yesterday
which carried down prices of many shares.

Tue 10/8           432.85 +7.89
Recovery in Stocks Continues.

Thu 10/24         384.10 -30.97
In the most sweeping and far-reaching decline of the year, and
one which was made on a tremendous volume of liquidation, the
market crumbled yesterday afternoon.

Fri 10/25         371.91 -12.19
WORST STOCK CRASH STEMMED BY BANKS; 12,894,6500 SHARE DAY SWAMPS
MARKET; LEADERS CONFER FIND CONDITIONS SOUND.
Wall Street optimistic after stormy day.  The opinion of brokers
was unanimous that the selling had got out of hand not because of
any inherent weakness in the market but because the public had
become alarmed...  Severe disturbances in the Stock Market are
nothing new in the American experience. The pendulum swings
wildly and it would seem as though the long expected break should
bring about equilibrium. [interview with some mucky-muck.]
Five of the country's most influential bankers hurried to the
office of J.P. Morgan & Co and, after a brief conference, gave
out word that they believe the market smash has been caused by
technical rather than fundamental considerations and that many
sound stocks are selling too low.

Sat 10/26           372.65 +.75
Stocks Gain as Market is Steadied; Bankers Pledge Continued
Support.  Hoover says business basis is sound.  Officials are
Optimistic.  Public Returns to Stock Market.
Realty Man Missing After Stock Crash - Wife says Germansky was
seen last near exchange tearing ticker tape to bits.
Depression-Proof Stocks - One enterprising Broadway house went to
the trouble yesterday of preparing a formidable list of
depression-proof stocks.

Mon 10/28       (after weekend)
Ready for today's trading.  Opinion rules that market is already
well-settled.

Tue 10/29         318.29 -49.12
STOCK PRICES SLUMP $14,000,000,000 IN NATIONWIDE STAMPEDE TO
UNLOAD.  Bankers to Support Market Today.  Huge Funds Expected In
Market Today for Bargain Buying.

Wed 10/30         275.26 -43.03
STOCKS COLLAPSE IN 16,410,030 SHARE DAY BUT RALLY AT CLOSE;
CHEERS BROKERS; BANKERS OPTIMISTIC, TO CONTINUE AID.  Bankers
believe liquidation has run its course and advise purchases.
Time to buy stock says Raskob; sees only temporary effect on
business.  Prudent investors are now buying stocks in huge
quantities and will profit handsomely when the hysteria is over.

Thu 10/31        (data missing)
Stocks Mount Strong All-Day Rally.  Rockefeller Buying Heartens
Market; 2-day closing ordered to ease strain.  The authorized
statement of John D. Rockefeller yesterday said that he and his
son believe that there is nothing in the business situation to
warrant destruction of values which has taken place during the
past week and that they are buying.  Headline: Returned
Confidence; Storm Weathered.

Fri 11/1          327.12 +20.91
STOCKS UP AGAIN IN FLOOD OF BUYING; DISCOUNT RATE CUT HERE AND IN
LONDON.  Rush to buy Nationwide.  Nationwide buying orders flood
into the market.  Bankers and Brokers Encouraged by Up-swing.
Brokers see end to state of hysteria.  Business will be suspended
today and tomorrow on the security exchanges.  Headline: The
Recovery Continues.

Sat 11/2        (market closed)
Brokers clear up tangles of record Wall Street week; expect
orderly market.  Headline: Favorable View Dominant.

Tue 11/5          305.03 -22.09
Stocks Sag 2 to 17 Points in day of orderly selling.  Very Strong
Bond Market.

Thu 11/7          267.79 -37.24
Stocks off 5 to 66 Points as Heavy Selling Goes on; Break is Laid
to Closing of Distress Accounts.  Yesterday's stock market was
exceedingly disturbing.

Fri 11/8           275.74 +7.95
Stocks up 3 to 34 points after break at opening.  Wall Street
More Cheerful.  Officials Believe Era of Easy Money Definitely
Within Sight Now.  General Recovery in Stocks.

Sat 11/9           277.82 -2.92 Trading Back to Normal.
Rosenwald discounts stock market drop: Comparatively few persons
are affected he says.  Lensdale finds business sound.
Girl Pianist Lost Million in Stocks - Was Trading on Margin.
Lou Gehrig, Yankee Star, will become a stock broker with the
reopening of business Monday morning.

Tues 11/12        253.14 -19.68
Stocks Break Again in New Rush to Sell, Steel at Year's Low.
SLUMP MYSTIFIES BROKERS - they see no factors to justify it.

Wed 11/13         237.13 -16.01
STOCKS SINK TO NEW LOWS - SELLING PUZZLES WALL STREET.  Thomas
Mann Wins Nobel Prize.  As one bargain hunter remarked, stocks
were never so easy to buy as yesterday.

Thu 11/14         233.58 -13.55
CUT IN INCOME TAX PROMISED AS PROOF OF GOVT'S BELIEF IN BUSINESS.
Stocks decline under heavier selling.  Hoover takes definite
action to reassure nation on general trade outlook.  COMMITS
SUICIDE OVER STOCK LOSSES - R.M. Searle, Rochester Utility man,
said to have dropped nearly all his fortune.  Bankers heartened
over stock situation.  Robust Rally Due.

Fri 11/15         245.46 +11.88
Returning Confidence.  Extra Dividend by GM - "...proof that the
industries of this country are on a sound basis...

Sat 11/16         261.88 +16.42
HOOVER CALLS LEADERS OF NATION TO CONFER ON WAYS TO SPUR
BUSINESS; STOCKS UP.  The Recovery Continues.

Tue 11/19          259.35 -2.53
Wall Street Views Situation as Satisfactory...  Stock Market
Quiet with Prices Sagging.

Newsgroups: misc.invest