From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 07:56:21 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 316, 11/11/92
10.7 FLUX=134.8  90-AVG=124        SSN=110      BKI=3544 3323  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B2.8     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3544 4323  PAI=021
  BOU-DEV=029,078,054,051,030,030,015,023   DEV-AVG=038 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.8   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.4
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 2350UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 0020UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1250UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1655UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55436NT @ 0347UT   BOUTF-MIN=55403NT @ 1933UT  BOUTF-AVG=55420NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1842UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0812UT  G7-AVG=+083,+032,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1834UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-033NT@ 0719UT  G6-AVG=+100,-010,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,140;SESC:135,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=031,021   27DAY-KP=5545 4334 5543 3223
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0426-0745UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
       day was a C2/1F at 10/2352Z in Region 7334 (N13W08). Region
       7335 (S17W03) also produced a few subflares but none of them
       had significant X-ray output. Region 7335 is currently the
       largest sunspot group on the disk but appears to be slowly
       decaying. Region 7330 (S09W62) was quiet during the past day.
       New Region 7338 (N06W25) emerged on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Region 7330, 7334,
       or 7335.

            The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at middle
       latitudes and unsettled to storm levels at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled at middle latitudes and
       unsettled to active at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 12 nov-14 nov

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 nov-14 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/40
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Conditions were mildly degraded over some high and
       polar latitude paths due to sporadic minor geomagnetic storm
       activity that occurred early in the UT day.  Propagation is
       expected to continue near-normal over all regions for the next
       three days (through 14 November inclusive), with greater
       improvements expected on 13 and 14 November over the higher
       latitude paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7330  S09W62  265  0230 DAO  09  010 BETA
7334  N13W08  211  0160 CAO  11  012 BETA
7335  S17W03  206  0490 EKI  11  021 BETA-GAMMA
7336  N06W75  278  0060 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7337  N08E66  137  0120 HSX  03  002 ALPHA
7338  N06W25  228  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7333  N09W52  255                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 NOVEMBER TO 14 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7314 N16   109
7327 N08   105
7316 S10   098


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
67   N39E27 N25E25 N40E02 N48E27  195  ISO   POS   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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