From: jb00@lehigh.edu (JOSE ANTONIO BASTO)
Newsgroups: misc.activism.progressive
Subject: E. Timor: The Political Problem
Date: 20 Jan 93 22:30:46 GMT
Followup-To: alt.activism.d
Organization: Lehigh University
Originator: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu

II.12 - Helping to analyse the political problem of East Timor

 A synopsis of the presentation by CDPM (Committee
for the Rights of the Maubere People).

************
section 13

PART-II

2nd SEMINAR ON EAST TIMOR, PORTO UNIVERSITY, PORTUGAL, 1990

"EAST-TIMOR, LAND OF HOPE"

II - EAST TIMOR, INDONESIA, AUSTRALIA AND THE WORLD
GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: PROSPECTS FOR EVOLUTION
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 The problem of East Timor and its international positioning has
changed substantially with the dismantling of political and
military blocks and with the generalized turning back of one-
party regimes.

 Taking this into consideration we can present some major
conceptions:

"a) New regional powers are about to emerge thanks to the
turning back of the two superpowers regarding the spheres of
intervention and influence. Japan is expected to become the new
'boss' of South East Asia.

 "(...) The transformation of regional alliances, like the current
warming up of relations (even in the military field) between
Australia and Indonesia, might be an indicator of unexpected
changes, like the new role for Japan in that region.

 "With his decisive regional role in the future, Japan (as well as
the Japanese public opinion) ought to become a most privileged
diplomatic target.

"b) (...) The reduction of global conflicts weakens the position
and the support of the big powers to their 'regional cops'.
Dictatorships, of which Indonesia is a big scale example, who
were located in strategically important regions, supported
directly or indirectly by those two superpowers are losing their
relevance. These countries who have had a history of repeated
human rights' abuses and other over their people are being left
out in the cold.

 "On a long-term basis it is well documented that the relationship
between states is better guaranteed by those where some form of
popular plebiscite and support has created national consensus.
This is one of the reasons why the superpowers, USSR and USA as
of lately have tried to build up alternative power alliances in
such allied countries.

"c) (...) With the dismantling of political blocks, the non-
alignment movement loses its 'raison d'e^tre'. East meets West
and the confrontation between the developed North and the
underdeveloped South is aggravated.

"d) (...) With the re-emergence of nationalist movements and
the depoliticization of conflicts, cases like the East Timorese one
will be withdrawn within itself instead of falling into oblivion.
This is because it is based upon deep roots ranging from ethnical,
linguistic, religious or otherwise nationalistic factors, instead of
political or ideological influences from the major powers.

 The presentation from CDPM goes on to consider that:
"notwithstanding the political stability, the causes for crisis
remain unabated," and are even on the brink of deterioration
because "the central power is delegated to an old and aging man
(...), the President (71 years old), supported by the military
and his replacement can open a Pandora box between political
factions.

 "In the meantime the internal restructuring of the economy will
intensify the pressures (...). The Indonesian economy is highly
conditioned by its monopolies and concession grants, depending
upon a close union between the military in power and the private
and public sectors (...)

 "Apart from internal reasons, and mainly because of external
pressures from foreign credit organizations, namely Japan,
Indonesia is witnessing and will proceed with a market
deregulation and the lifting of trade barriers. Major
consequences of this process will be a bigger foreign investment
with its implicit access to decision-making areas, the weakening
of economic, thus political, importance of the military elite
structure in power, with all potential risks of internal
confrontation and an uprising of an urban technocracy mixed
with private financiers."

 Apart from this the pro-democracy movements, the human rights
campaigners and the ecologists who sponsor the changes are
rapidly becoming more and more influential in Indonesia.

 CDPM draws its attention to the incoherence of the administering
power based upon its dependency on the external affairs interests'
and pressures' from its natural and traditional allies.


 To end this presentation CDPM suggests a strategy of negotiable
diplomacy, mass media and a firm " support, financially and
politically to the nationalist movements, in order to exercise the
right of the East Timorese to self determination and to implement
it in what is expected to be a long term decision (five years
plus.)".
-- 
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