From: lwang@esk.compserv.utas.edu.au ()
Subject: Shen Tong and Chinese Politics
Originator: lwang@esk
Organization: University of Tasmania at Launceston
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 92 02:58:20 GMT

	Seng Tong has been arrested. It is sad for his family, friends and
relations. But, as far as democracy in china is concerned, a new chapter has 
been revealed and so has a new era.
	I don't have any confidence in CCP in respect of political reform. 
I think that it will be politically naive to believe that a political reform 
which has been monoploized by a single party will be guided onto a democratic 
track. My point is you cannot rule out the part of the political dissidents 
in a democracy-oriented political reform. Therefore, you have to have Wang 
Jun tao, Wei Jing Shen, or Seng Tong.
	You might want to talk about the timing, strategy and consequence
of this sort of action. However, so far I have not found any big holes in 
Seng Tong's action in terms of timing and strategy.
	In the past two years, it seems to me that the democratic movement 
in china has lost its initiative. Seng Tong's action certainly will help.
	Regarding the timing, Seng Tong's timing is by and large correct.
In every politically developing nation, there is a pattern regarding the
political dissidents movemnet. In the early stage, the dissidents would be
ruthlessly murdered like what happened in China in 50's and 60's. Then it
came to a stage that the ruthless and massive murder was getting less, but
the prominent dissidents would be heavily sentenced like what happened to
Wei Jing Shen. Then come to an era when the dissidents normally will have a
relatively "short" sentence (I have to admit that it is not very
short sometimes), thanks to the very nature of the poltical development and
increasing international access, following and pressure, NOT because of any
leniency from the authority.
	 As loog as it is "short", it won't do much harm but help to the
political activitist as far as his or her political career is concerned.
For the country, when these people are out of jail, they are the
people with political credit. They wll be regarded as the genuine democratic 
fighters. When people looking for their political leadership. They are the 
likely option.
	The strategy of Seng Tong is also good. You have to remember that
a democracy-oriented political development is characterised by the
fighting for a "politically-living space" by the political dissidents. 
Since the process is a fairly-balanced one, the strategy is important. If you 
push too far, you might ruin the whole process like the students did in 1989 
even they are morally right. But at the same time, it will not help at all if 
you are doing nothing. Therefore, the dissidents should stand somewhere near the
boundary. The moderate demand by Seng Tong, to set up a legally registered 
foundation in Beijing, is just on the boundary. So far so good.
	I think that Seng Tong's action is a signal that we finally have got 
a mature political dissident force in China. The new era has been arriving
in China inevitably. I believe that Seng Tong will have many followers in
the years to come. The democratic process in China has been put on track
again.
	Chinese people are always very lucky. They have been lucky in the
economic sense thanks to Deng XiaoPing and Zhao ZiYang. Knowingly or
not, they are politically lucky because of Wang Jun Tao, Wei
jingShen and, very recently, Seng Tong. Seng Tong's action has a particular
significance for the CSS oversea. Because of Seng Tong, you will unlikely be
lost out in terms of the potential political interest in future China.
	I am not suggesting that every CSS should copy Seng Tong. Different
people should play differant roles. It is good for a nation, if it has some
people having political interests and ambitions. But it will be harmful if you
have too many such kind of persons. It is nothing wrong that the people
with poltical ambition and/or interests come up to take risk. They would become the
leaders and you would benefit. The whole China will benefit from Seng Tongs'
actions. Particularly, those people who claim they are not interested in
politics and/or only concerning a "pure" economic reform in China will
benefit most.
	At last, it wasn't a showdown. The people behind bar would not
survive without a strong, humanitarian and supporting international
society. Therefore, it is the time to active the international attention and
official protests.       
	
	

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