From: Tom Gray <tgray@igc.apc.org>
Newsgroups: talk.environment
Date: 01 Sep 92 11:31 PDT
Subject: Re: Population Growth and the Bet that 
Nf-ID: #R:1992Aug20.164348.27858@vexcel.co:1266189026:cdp:1483100115:000:6457
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!tgray    Sep  1 11:31:00 1992


/* Written  8:16 am  Aug 22, 1992 by goodwork in cdp:population */
Thanks to Dean and John for this discussion.  

I was offered a chance to participate in the second bet Dean presents,
last spring.  Like Dean, not being given to wagering, and being given to
a balance of activism and observation, I devised my own response, which I
present below. 

By the way, the figures those wagering against Simon collected are quite
impressive in showing association of high population growth with human
"illfare".  If I can get them on disc I'll upload them on another occa-
sion.  Those figures in themselves don't show me there is causation --
other evidence, such as the material in the IPS stories Tom has been
posting in the igc:population conference, is what convinces me of that. 
Let's remember that THE CAUSATION SEEMS TO FLOW BOTH WAYS, that poverty
and desperation seem also to promote reproduction, and that relief of
poverty seems also to lead to reduced population growth figures.  

I invite comment on my connection of social justice, anti-racism,
women's freedom, and resistance to militarism with reproduction rates.  
____________________________

Joseph Maizlish
11622 Missouri Av.
Los Angeles, CA 90025
(310) 473-9732

May 25, 1992

Dear Carol Benson Holst, Barry Shanley, and Julian Simon,

I have received and considered the April 29 invitation by C. Holst and B.
Shanley to respond to the challenge by J. Simon on his contention
concerning population growth and human welfare.  I want to describe my
response for your possible enjoyment or comment (and so that you may
consider its possible effects on the outcome of your wager!).  My
additional agenda is to ask all of us to consider what we may do during
this decade to affect human and planetary welfare.  

I am choosing a 'sure thing' and INVESTING my $100 by donating to several
organizations whose work affects the indicators of population and human
welfare you have selected.  My hope is that my donation will affect both
population growth and the chosen indicators, resulting in $100 worth of
progress.  

I'm investing the $100 as follows:

$20 TO THE MINISTRY FOR POPULATION CONCERNS, working for interfaith
population issue awareness and action in the U.S. and support of such
work elsewhere.  Due to the relatively earth-impactful U.S. consumption
patterns and international involvements, growth in U.S. population has
great worldwide effects.  Director Holst may in her judgement use the
donation directly or through sharing with other groups.  
POSSIBLE EFFECT OF THIS DONATION ON YOUR BET:  Though the U.S. is unlike-
ly to be one of the five with the highest population growth rates in the
decade, any reduction of growth in the U.S. will likely make things more
liveable and improve the welfare indicators in other lands, regardless
of their population changes.  This may tend to favor Simon.  Of course
success of MPC's calls for U.S. aid to population work elsewhere will
tend to reduce population growth generally.  If this success goes too far
it will confound the bet entirely (written with the keyboard equivalent
of tongue in cheek)!

$20 TO THE UNITED NATIONS FUND FOR POPULATION ACTIVITIES, for support of
non-coercive population programs throughout the world.  
POSSIBLE EFFECT: This may also tend to confound your bet by making it
hard for you to find countries which had population growth between the
years 1990 and 2000, but it will probably take more than my $20 to
achieve that!  

$20 TO THE WOMEN FOR WAGES FOR HOUSEWORK AND INTERNATIONAL BLACK WOMEN
FOR WAGES FOR HOUSEWORK CAMPAIGNS.  As their titles DO NOT suggest, these
groups work for the counting of unwaged work around the world in
productivity measures (such as Gross Domestic Product).  This work is
mostly household and agricultural work done overwhelmingly by women. 
The groups also call for social/ technological support for that work. 
The organizers assert that such recognition and support will contribute
to women's ability to make choices, including reproductive choices, tend
to revision of the male-female power balance, assist women in winning
access to and time for a variety of satisfying life activities of which
child-bearing and rearing will be only one, and will result in their
making reproductive choices based on what they sense their living
situations and environments can reasonably bear.  
POSSIBLE EFFECT: This will tend to reduce population growth and improve
the chosen human welfare indicators.

$20 TO THE NATIONAL WAR TAX RESISTANCE COORDINATING COMMITTEE (U.S.). 
This organization supports open peaceable refusal of federal taxes in
the U.S. as direct refusal of aid to warfare, its preparations, and the
exploitative systems supported by militaries and military aid (the group
is allied internationally as well).  Amelioration of the skewed afflu-
ence-poverty system and its destructive effects on welfare, and efforts
to replace enforced exploitation with consensual forms may require open,
peaceable, and sometimes illegal actions -- in case entrenched privilege
does not give way lightly (and it doesn't seem to be!).
POSSIBLE EFFECTS: Less international and domestic institutionalized
robbery everywhere will make more secure the lives of the presently
impoverished, probably reducing their perceived need for security-based
reproduction, and will reduce the damage to the environment (and human
welfare) by consumption levels associated with affluence.  Less killing
due to reduced warfare will reduce that form of population reduction and
reduce direct welfare destruction, but also end war-induced compensatory
reproduction.  Resources freed from military use will in a disarmed world
assist welfare indicators.  

$20 TO THE ARTISTS' COALITION IN RESPONSE TO THE LOS ANGELES CRISIS: This
project may seem a far reach for our subject matter.  The group is publi-
shing a book of written and pictorial works and a recording of musical
work, to present a wide selection of local L.A. artist responses.  One
goal is to make real the images of selves and others across all lines of
class, race, etc.  The struggle for community, one which ultimately must
include the whole of the planet beyond our species, connects the project
to the goals which I am guessing Holst, Shanley, Simon and I share.

Thanks for raising your challenge.  I look forward to looking backward
with you in 2002, and to working with you in the meantime.  

Sincerely, 


Joseph Maizlish