From: mjones@fenway.aix.kingston.ibm.com (Mike Jones)
Subject: Re: Conservative Values (Re: New group proposal:  alt.conservative.forum)
Date: Wed, 06 Jan 93 23:54:47 GMT
Organization: IBM T. J. Watson Research
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mykes@shell.portal.com (mike myke schwartz) writes:
: Russ Anderson (rja@mahogany126.cray.com) wrote:
: : In <C02Mws.CtK@unix.portal.com>, mykes@shell.portal.com (mike myke schwartz) writes:
: : > Mike Jones (mjones@fenway.aix.kingston.ibm.com) wrote:
: : > : mykes@shell.portal.com (mike myke schwartz) writes:
: : > : :                                        The most successful governmental
: : > : : economic policies in this century, known as trickle-down, were a Kemp/Reagan
: : > : : implementation.  Reagan's terms not only produced enormous prosperity and
: : > : : growth, but year after year the debt and defecit as a percentage of
: : > : : GDP _decreased_ (source: Milton Friedman, interviewd on Wall Street Week).
: : > :
: : > : This claim is so vague as to be meaningless. It is true that you can pick
: : > : starting and ending points to illustrate this fact, but there's no independent
: : > : reason to pick those points. If you take "the 80's" (1980-1989), or "the
: : > : Reagan years (1980-1988), that isn't a true statement. (I'll welcome FACTS
: : > : to prove me wrong, because I don't have the numbers handy.) The growth was
: : > : largely fueled by massive increases in public and private debt, which has
: : > : been very much responsible for the mess we're in now.
: : >
: : > I did not video tape Wall Street Week, nor do I have a transcript of it.
: : > The best of my recollection is what I wrote.  I apologize for saying that
: : > the DEBT decreased.  But the defecit did indeed decrease.  Since you ask
: : > me to do your research for you, I will provide you with the data, as found
: : > in my 1992 Universal Almanac.  All dollar figures are in BILLIONS.
: : >
: : > 1980 GNP 2732.0, defecit = 73.8, %GNP = .0270
: : > 1985 GNP 4014.9, defecit = 212.3, %GNP = .0529
: : > 1987 GNP 4536.7, defecit = 148.0, %GNP = .0327
: : > 1988 GNP 4864.3, defecit = 155.1, %GNP = .0319
: : > 1989 GNP 5200.8, defecit = 152.0, %GNP = .0292
: : 
: : Mike, unless you plan on arguing that .0270 > .0292, you just disproved your
: : own assertion.
: : 
: : The deficit as a percentage of GNP was higher at the end of the 1980's than
: : it was at the start of the 1980's.
: : 
: 
: Russ, the assertion was made that the defecit DID not decrease at all,
: as %GNP, and someone questioned Milton Friedman's claim that it did.  It did.
: In fact, the consistent yearly decrease from 85-89 was deliberate and
: healthy.

In fact, my assertion (left in the mass above) was that there is no
meaningful way to claim this. Yes, you can pick two points and show a
decline, but why did you pick those points? The 85-89 (or sometimes -90)
points are often chosen by Reaganista True Believers, but I've always been
puzzled by why they seem to be able to swallow the idea that it took four
years for Reagan to turn around what they claim were Carter problems (with
the help of a Republican senate, no less!), but no time at all for that
noted socialist George Bush to make hash out of the goodness which flowed
from the pen of Saint Ron.

: The assertion that defecit spending is the cause of any problems is false.
: Tell that to people who buy homes with mortgages of (at least) 4x their
: gross earnings.  The assertion that defecit spending every year is bad is
: also false.  If, yearly, you get a $100/month pay raise ($1200/year), you
: do indeed have the ability to pay $100/month on new debt costs.

The assertion that deficit spending is the cause of no problems is equally
false. Neither has been made here recently.

   Mike Jones  |  AIX/ESA Development  |  mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com

As a professional humorist, I often get letters from readers who are
interested in the basic nature of humor.  "What kind of a sick perverted
disgusting person are you," these letters typically ask, "that you make jokes
about setting fire to a goat?" ...
	- Dave Barry, "Why Humor is Funny"