From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1992 18:20:10 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 326, 11/21/92
10.7 FLUX=161    90-AVG=126        SSN=113      BKI=5420 1100  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B6.3     FLU1=1.2E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4320 0011  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=000,050,012,003,006,005,004,004   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.0   @ 0713UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.6   @ 0914UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1530UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2110UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1410UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1620UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 1928UT   BOUTF-MIN=55390NT @ 1931UT  BOUTF-AVG=55419NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+098NT@ 1902UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0913UT  G7-AVG=+064,+033,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 2154UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-023NT@ 0226UT  G6-AVG=+082,-007,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:155,150,145;SESC:155,150,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,025/015,025,025
    KFCST=3333 3333 3445 4334  27DAY-AP=005,009   27DAY-KP=2010 2121 2232 2233
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0346-0357UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only two C-class flares
       were noted today, the largest of which was a C5.0/SF at 21/0713UT
       in Region 7341 (S14W88) as it neared the west limb. The
       second C-class flare was uncorrelated. Regions 7345 (S24E09)
       and 7346 (S08E20) both experienced decay but remain the most
       interesting Regions on the disk. Both regions displayed only
       isolated sub-flares.  A moderate Type II sweep was observed
       at 03:46UT, but was not well correlated with anything optical
       or in x-rays.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7345 and 7346 have the best potential for C-class
       flares and a small chance for an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. A short period of minor storm
       levels was experienced at mid-latitudes at 21/0300UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 12 hours, then
       unsettled to active for the remainder of the period because
       of a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 22 nov-24 nov

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 nov-24 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/45
                        Minor Storm           10/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/35/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are expected to persist for the next 24
       hours.  Gradual deterioration in propagation stability is
       expected on 23 and 24 November when a well placed coronal hole
       begins to enhance levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity
       over the high and polar latitudes.  Minor equatorward migration
       of the auroral oval may affect some northerly middle latitude
       paths as well, particularly during the local night sectors.
       High and polar latitudes should see mostly fair to poor
       propagation on 23 and 24 November.  Middle latitude paths
       should observe mostly good to fair propagation, while low
       latitude paths should continue to see good propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7337  N07W67  138  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7341  S14W88  159  0090 HAX  04  002 ALPHA
7342  S08W61  132  0050 CSO  06  008 BETA
7345  S24E09  062  0250 EAO  15  026 BETA
7346  S07E20  051  0530 EKO  13  025 BETA
7340  S06W36  107                    PLAGE
7343  N08W46  117                    PLAGE
7344  S15W14  085                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 NOVEMBER TO 24 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7325 S16   334
7332 S22   323


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0154 0154 0155                         1500
 0346      0357                                     II
 1426 1432 1434              C1.9       1400
 1813 1817 1831 ////  S17E19       SF    130



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
21/ 0346              0357                RSP               2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
68   N03W20 N00W24 N03W37 N21W20  106  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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