From: barrett@cloudgen1.gatech.edu (James Barrett)
Subject: BLACK: Fox interview transcript
Organization: Georgia Tech College of Computing
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1992 00:54:34 GMT


             Bush Adviser Plays Down Poll Results

    From Tuesday-morning edition of Fox Morning News:
    BRIAN WILSON: Joining us now to talk about the
 president's drop in the polls and his options for bouncing
 back is Charlie Black, senior advisor to the Bush-Quayle
 campaign. Thanks for being here this morning.
    CHARLES BLACK: Thank you, Brian.
    Q: Let's ask you the big question that's on everybody's
 mind right now, about Secretary Baker. When will he come
 back to the campaign? 
    BLACK: Well, I don't know what Secretary Baker's going to
 do. The only 2 people qualified to decide that are President
 Bush and Secretary Baker and they haven't said anything yet
 so I suppose we'll know soon.
    Q: Well surely, as a senior advisor, you're privy to some
 of the inside conversations. I mean, it's been leaked all
 over the place that he's coming back. You won't confirm that
 for us this morning?
    BLACK: There are an awful lot of people speculating but 
 unless either the president or Secretary Baker or one of the
 people to tell you what's going on, then whoever tells you
 doesn't know. But they're very capable of deciding and
 they'll let us know when they're ready.
    Q: Well, just give us a hint. Would you wave us off of
 that?
    BLACK: I don't have any idea. I won't be surprised either
 way. I'd be very delighted to have the chance to work with
 Jim Baker again but we already have a good team of people in
 both the White House and the campaign, so the president's 
 going to have a good team on the field either way.
    Q: All right, now let's talk about these polls. I know
 that you always expect, after the Democratic Convention, the
 Democrats to get a bounce. First it was 17 % and it just
 continues to climb and climb and climb. I guess the question
 I have is are you worried?
    BLACK: Well, we're not worried. This is the traditional
 summer ritual of presidential campaigns. The Democrats have
 their convention in July; they monopolize the news and get
 good publicity for a week or 2 and they get a big lead. We 
 come back in August and have our convention. We dominate the
 news; we get favorable publicity and we wipe out their lead.
 And usually we go into the fall, into Labor Day, in a pretty
 close competitive race. I think that's what's going to
 happen this time.
    Q: Well, I'm familiar with the phenomenon of after the
 conventions but this seems to be a little larger. After all,
 it's the largest post-convention bounce since 1968, we're
 told.
    BLACK: Well, I'm not sure about that. Now, it seems to me 
 like Jimmy Carter had a 33 point lead coming out of his
 convention and he won by 2 points, about a point and a half
 in the end, so it could well be that Governor Clinton didn't
 reach a high enough point to be able to ride out this lead.
    But no, I think most observers in both parties would tell
 you this is going to be a very close, very competitive race
 in the fall. We're delighted that we now have a 2-way race,
 that we'll be able to present a clear contrast on the
 issues, 2 very distinct agendas to the American people--
 President Bush's conservative reform agenda and Governor 
 Clinton tax and spend agenda.
    Q: About Perot, he got out at kind of an interesting
 time. He got out at a time when Democrats were in the
 forefront of the news, they were at the convention, and a
 lot of those Perot people apparently said well, I kind of
 like what he's saying today and they kind of switched their
 allegiance.
    What the timing significant? Did it hurt you more than
 you expected?
    BLACK: Well, I don't think it hurts us in the long run. I 
 think his departure at that time did probably enhance the
 Clinton bounce from the convention, but all of that means
 that the Perot voters have decided to take a 2d look at Bill
 Clinton for a while. Between now and November, they're going
 to get a 3d, 4th, 5th, maybe even a 6th look. When they see
 where he stands on the issues and how dismal his record is,
 I don't think they'll stay there. They'll be back with
 President Bush.
    Q: Your hope is that there's a great deal of volatility
 in these numbers, that people are still not locked in. 
    BLACK: There's no doubt about that. A lot of the polls
 that have been taken this summer, up to 2-3ds of the people
 said they haven't made a final, definite decision about who
 they're going to support, and that's much more volatile than
 we usually see and indicates we're going to have some late
 decisions and that the closing 2 or 3 weeks of the campaign
 will be the most important time.
    Q: President Bush is just now starting to go on the
 offensive. For the most part he's been sitting back, trying 
 to look presidential, kind of a Rose Garden strategy, if you
 will, and he says he's really going to buckle down after the
 convention in August.
    Do you expect, because of these numbers, that he'll go on
 the attack a little sooner?
    BLACK: Oh, I don't think he'll go on the attack. He's
 going to step up his campaign activity a little bit in the
 next 3 weeks but he really will become a full-time candidate
 after our convention and the American people know from
 experience that when George Bush becomes a candidate, joins 
 the fight, that he is an excellent candidate and he will
 provide them with a great race and he'll come charging from
 behind in the same fashion that he did last time to win this
 race.
    Q: Al Gore. Were you surprised at the pick and how does
 that change your strategy?
    BLACK: I was a little surprised, for 2 reasons. It
 obviously got Governor Clinton nothing geographically, and
 he's been trying to portray this moderate image. He went and
 picked one of the most liberal guys in the US Senate. I 
 mean, for symbolic purposes he might as well have put
 Senator Kennedy on the ticket. It completes a move to the
 left that Bill Clinton's been engaged in since about April.
    Q: Let me try one more time. Any big announcements due
 out today?
    BLACK: Oh, not today. Listen, I don't know what the
 president and secretary of state are up to, but they'll let
 you know on their own time table.
    Q: All right, Charles Black, thanks for being here with
 us. 


---------------------OS/2 v2.0 -- It's heeeeerrrreee!!!!!-----------------------
James C. Barrett (barrett@cc.gatech.edu)| "I'm speechless...               
Georgia Tech College of Computing       |      I am without speech." - George
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc,alt.politics.clinton