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Date:         Tue, 18 Aug 1992 23:31:55 -0500
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Bosnia, Hungary,
              Romania and ...(#757)
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              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com,
              christic@igc.org, 76701.103@compuserve.com,
              politics@ohstvma.BITNET, mideur-l@ubvm.BITNET

Russia-

On the eve of the anniversary of the coup, which I hope to write an
essay on yet this night, Yeltsin Presidential advisor Sergei
Stankevich was interviewed on NPR tonight. He stated that the
"attempted putsch" (which is what the reporter said is THE term in
Russia for the aborted coup of last August) "acted in a way" that
reflected a response to "quite popular ideas." He stated that the
people want "guarantees" about getting rid of crime and getting land,
with government wielding "a hard hand against crime," though it was
impossible to "impose solutions." With prices up 10-20%, and wages
not rising, "the people have no idea where things are headed."

Mikhail Gorbachev was reported by RFE/RL as having said he "most
closely favors" the ideas of the Civic Union, headed by
Vice-President Rutskoi, and of Arkady Volsky, head of the newly
created Industrial Lobby. Both organizations favor a much slower pace
of reforms. He also endorsed the "principle of confederation"
proposed by Kazakh President Nazerbayev recently, oddly echoing (with
more territory) parts of the plan for a "new Russia" proposed in
Solzhenitsyn's _Rebuilding Russia, Reflections and Tentative
Proposals, which I just finished reading for the first time
yesterday.

Ukraine-

RFE/RL reported today that Ukraine will begin dismantling weapons as
per the CFE treaty between 18 August and 18 September. One wag (my
term-VMS) was reported as suggesting that these weapons be converted
to peacetime use, though I'm not sure what peacetime use tanks,
artillery and small arms have save to further swell the enormous
illicit wapons trade in Europe and elsewhere.

Georgia-

Eduard Shevardnadze sent 3000 troops to Abkhaz, apparently forced the
resignation of the Parliamentary Chairman there, Vladislav Ardzinda
(thanks to RFE/RL for his name), according to late reports on NPR. A
Defense Council is to replace whatever structure Abkhaz had before.

Kazakhstan-

General Victor Dubynin, chief of the Russian General Staff, arrived
here for talks on the transferrance of strategic nuclear weapons,
RFE/RL reported today. The report also said that there is talk of
reusing the nuclear test site at Semipalatinsk as a scientif
institute, but at present, "funds are lacking."

The Baltics-

The Nordic Council today was to accept the three Baltic nations as
members. The Council, according to an RFE/RL report today, urged
Russian troop withdrawal from the region, saying a "rapid and
positive solution" to the troop's situation would "contribute to the
stability of the whole region."

Hungary-

RFE/RL reported that roughly 1000 ex-Soviet soldiers are still in the
country, mostly illegally, and many are "involved in criminal
activities." They are reported primarily involved in illegal arms
sales to Poland, Romania, and the states of the XUSSR.

Romania-

The Foreign Minister, Natase, warned Hungary, on the verge of holding
a pan-Hungarian "congress" in Budapest, about inciting trouble over
Transylvania, stating that such incitement would "damage bilateral
relations," RFE/RL reported today.

Bosnia-

It was reported on NPR today that the Europa Hotel in Sarajevo,
shelled yesterday to the point of being set on fire, is the only
place that a large chunk (maybe 800) of the 1500 refugees that fled
had to return there to stay, gutted out or not. The death toll in
that incident has risen to five.

1000 Serbian women and children began evacuation from Belgrade today,
though at last report, I do not know if they made to Serbian lines.
Their ultimate destination is Belgrade. One was reported on NPR as
saying that she could not sympathize with the Serbs in Bosnia for
having unleashed the fighting.

NPR reported relief flights to Sarajevo were suspended and the
Sarajevo airport closed because a British Hercules plane was fired at
by 20mm cannon.

RFE/RL also reported that agreememt had been reached "in principle"
on UN supervision of Serb heavy weapons positions, and that the
"Serbian republics" in Bosnia and Croatia were talking of merging
under a common defense, a "unified state" of some kind. At present,
Serbs are reported to hold 1/3 of Croatia (formed into the "republic
of Krajina") and 60-70% of Bosnia.


The map of Europe and the XSU is still being formed, the governments
and directions of the next century are still being chosen. Russia is
still struggling towards what it might become in the new days of
"post-Cold War." "Yugoslavia's" smash-up still has to be decided in
terms of what will emerge from all this "civil war." How Serbia is
dealt with, and how the "Serbian question" in terms of their
occupation by force of so much Croatian and Bosnian territory will be
a major test of the UN, CSCE and EC, in addition to the challenge of
how to decide such bitter disputes as Macedonia and Kosovo promise to
be.

Once again, an all-European "reordering" conference would appear to
be in order. All nations, and would-be nations, having a genuine part
in deciding what and whom will constitute the "nations." This would
have to include peoples some would prefer NOT to have such a voice -
such as Tatarstan, Trans-Dniester, Crimea, Yakuts (which has another
name, I cannot recall it), Transylvania, Macedonia, Kosovo,
Vojvodina, Slovakia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Chechen-Ingushetia, Abkhaz,
Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ossetia, to name the ones I've heard discussed
the most often these past few months.

I guess I feel at this juncture that if these "ethnic or religious
self-determination" drives are all crushed or ruled out by force, as
has apparently occurred in Abkhazia today, that the seeds of DEEP
trouble are being sown. The whirlwind of destruction those seeds of
discontent will spawn seems a high price for a "new peace," if one
could even be accomplished in such a climate. I will agree that the
Cold War is over, but no one wins until genuine peace is restored,
and we look forward to trade, growth and development instead of
reverting back to nationalism, and ethnic wars like the First and
Second Balkan wars of the pre-World War I era. All idealism aside,
just as a matter of practicality, peace and cooperation make one
hell of a lot more sense than what we are beholding today in too much
of the XUSSR and "Yugoslavia."  VMS
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