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Date:         Fri, 8 Jan 1993 09:18:39 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      On Bosnia, and the Plight of Sarajevo, (#803)

On Bosnia, and the Plight of Sarajevo

The Bosnian peace talks in Geneva are in recess, with the Vance/Owen
plan being "consulted about" by R. Karadzic with unknown "others,"
presumably among them Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in
Belgrade.

As I understand the plan, which the Croats reportedly have signed
onto, and that Izetbegovic provisionally approved despite his
opposition to the "partitioning" of the country into 10 pieces, each
controlled by a "dominant" ethnic group, but all contained by a
single constitution and a single capital, Sarajevo. The third
component of the plan, besides the partitioning and the proposed
constitution, is a cessation of hostilities (though no specific idea
of where the various sides would "stop in place" seems to be on the
table).

Karadzic, in an interview yesterday, stated that the Serbs WERE
willing to give up some territory in Bosnia, but not all, and he
called the "rape camp" stories a vicious canard, a "lie against the
Serbs to make them look bad." He denied any Serb raping of anyone,
despite UN reports yesterday that perhaps as many as 20,000 Bosnian
Muslim women HAD been raped by Serbs, that the raping appeared
patently to be a matter of policy - a means of demoralizing Muslims,
and causing them to vacate areas the Serbs want, ie another means of
"ethnic cleansing," which Dr. Karadzic still denies is occurring.

Meanwhile, I heard an interview yesterday with Souvanna Phoa of the
UN High Commissioner for Refugees staff, who had just been in
Sarajevo. Her report was VERY bleak. All the trees in the city have
been cut down, Phoa said she had seen Sarajevo residents cutting down
the few remaining trees in cemetaries. She said ten people had frozen
to death in the two days she was there. No heat of any kind is in the
city, which was primarily electrically heated, but there is no
electricity. Whenever power lines are repaired, snipers try to kill
the repairers, or cut the lines immediately afterward. Despite the
terrible lack of food, blankets and stoves were coming in first, as
most of the city is enshrouded in snow and ice.

Phoa further reported that people have to walk "miles" to get water,
and that the amount that could be gotten was limited. There is no hot
water for surgeons in the hospitals to scrub up in. The main highway
into the city's bridges have been blown up, so icy mountain roads
have to be used to attempt to supply the city with food and fuel.
Every convoy passage into the city has to renegotiated with the
beseigers. The current goal of 270 tons of goods, including 100 tons
of wood a day, is to be increased to 400 tons a day, with priority on
fuel and blankets, with trucks going to other cities being diverted
to the Sarajevo run because of the city's incredibly critical need.

Phoa felt the "resolve IS weakening," that up to a year of no contact
with families, isolation, the freezing cold are all playing havoc on
the defender's morale. She said that when food comes in, the soldiers
get the most and the first, as fighting spirit still IS there despite
the daunting conditions.

Vance/Owens went to Belgrade and met with Milosevic, who stated that
he favored an immediate cessation of fighting, but did not say
whether he could or would rein in the various Serb irregulars. The
"president" of "rump Yugoslavia" warned Wednesday that Serbs had a
choice - military and political compromise and cessation of
hostilities, or face a "coalition" of the "greatest powers" attacking
them.

While there are other tragedies and hot spots on the planet - Iraq,
Somalia, Mozambique, Angola among them - the tragedy of Sarajevo is
incredibly grim. Though there is an alleged agreement for the Serbs
to withdraw twenty miles from the city, and for the UN to take over
Bosnian "heavy weapons," creating an "open city," it remains dubious
that such a plan is actually being effectuated.

Sarajevo will probably see several thousand people freeze to death in
coming weeks, especially with temperatures dropping as low as -18 F
in recent days. The peace talks resume on Sunday, with various
reports about whether the Serbs will accept the Vance/Owens plan.
Izetbegovic's tentative agreement to the partition may cause him a
loss of support from the more radical Muslims, who apparently believe
that ANY partition is basically giving the Serbs their ill-gotten
gains, though itt is said that the plan's "provinces" would preclude
the Serb "dream" of a separate Serbian state within Bosnia. Nothing
in this plan deals with the 35% occupation by Serbs of Croatia.

The situation continues to be a gross mess, and solutions are coming
painfully slowly. I have to wonder how long the 300-350,000 reported
residents of Sarajevo can hold out against both Serbs and the bitter
cold. VMS
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