From: houle@nmt.edu (Paul Houle)
Newsgroups: sci.energy
Subject: Re: Re: Running out of oil ->NEVER<-
Date: 21 Aug 92 15:38:04 GMT
Article-I.D.: nmt.1992Aug21.153804.10022
Organization: New Mexico Tech

In article <580004@hplred.HP.COM> curry@hplred.HP.COM (Bo Curry) writes:

>Purged of drivel, the argument seems to be:
>
> 1. Fact 
>    It was widely believed in the late 1970's that there would be fundamental
>    physical limitations on the density of RAM chips.
>
> 2. Alleged fact
>    That limit was estimated (by many?) to be about 256K.
>
> 3. Fact
>    The actual limit on RAM density is more than 2 orders of magnitude
>    higher than 256K.
>
> Conclusion
>    Recoverable oil will last forever.
>
>Is it just me, or do there seem to be some steps missing in this argument?

	This is a classic argument.  It's certainly true that technological
progress has broken through perceived limits.  At one point it was believed
that a person couldn't travel faster than 60 mph;  the air resistance or
somesuch would crush them.  It was also believed that no aircraft could
break the speed of sound.  Going to the moon was science fiction in the
1920's.  In 1969 it became a fact.

	Yet,  we can also find examples of technologies that didn't live
up to expectations.  One example of this is the speed of travel.  Around
1960,  one graph that was popularized by Buckminister Fuller and others
show the speed of transport increasing exponentially through time...  Starts
out with a man on foot,  then a man on a horse,  a train,  a car,  aircraft,
spacecraft,  and all that stuff.  One problem is that if we extrapolate
this graph into the future,  it crosses the speed of light sometime around
2020.  We have every reason to believe this is an absolute physical barrier
(my own conception of it is that in the real geometry of nature,  the
phrase "faster than light" is ill-formed).  Beyond this,  little progress
has been made in speed of aircraft and spacecraft since then.  Buckminister
Fuller's view of the future was based on his reaction to the rapid
progress of aviation technology between the 40's and the 60's that
was triggered by WWII and the cold war.  He believed that aviation was going
to become so fast,  so inexpensive and so safe that it would be practical
to have homes delivered in pieces by helicopter.

	As we all know,  the advances made in aviation from 1970-1990 have
been relatively subtle.  Larger and more economical passenger transports that
are more fuel efficient.  Better avionics.  A person like Bucky who is
living today would be more likely to be impressed by the incredible
progress of computer technology (And every time I read ~Computer Shopper~,
which is about twice a year,  I get a bad case of future shock) and would
be likely to extrapolate it along an exponential,  whereas a logisitics
curve or a variant would be more appropriate.

	Both aviation and microelectronics technology have benefited from
what Bucky called ephermalization,  which is a process where an increase
of resource efficiency leads to higher speed,  lower costs and better
performance,  which is why we saw quick advances in them.

	One can't map this argument with any certainty to another field
like oil.  The guy could be right;  maybe we might find a way to make oil
at $1/bbl from oil shale.  It's also very possible that he could be wrong.


-- 
Newsgroups: sci.energy,sci.environment