From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 27 Dec 1992 00:34:45 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                25 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 360, 12/25/92
10.7 FLUX=136.2  90-AVG=139        SSN=120      BKI=0011 1211  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B3.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=0011 1210  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=000,004,005,008,008,013,009,005   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.5   @ 0147UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 2056UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1850UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1120UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 1432UT   BOUTF-MIN=55393NT @ 1900UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+105NT@ 1832UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0815UT  G7-AVG=+082,+029,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1833UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 2312UT  G6-AVG=+101,-003,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,125;SESC:130,125,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,025,015/030,030,020
    KFCST=4455 6443 4455 6443  27DAY-AP=005,004   27DAY-KP=1122 1122 1112 2110
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Just one C-class event occurred,
       that a C2.5/1B flare at 0147Z from still decaying Region 7374
       (S09W18). Background x-ray fluxes are now at levels reminiscent
       of solar minimum. Certainly the most interesting occurrence of
       the day was the disappearance of an approx. 40 degree-long
       filament/prominence from the southeast limb at the start of the
       day.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet at all latitudes. The
       expected passage of a coronal mass ejection related to the
       filament disappearance of 22 December has yet to occur.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to minor storm levels the next two
       days due to effects from two recent filament disappearances,
       on 22 and 23 december. The east limb event of earlier today is
       not likely to have any effect.

            Event probabilities 26 dec-28 dec

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 dec-28 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/40
                        Minor Storm           50/50/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/30
                        Minor Storm           30/30/50
                        Major-Severe Storm    35/35/15


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7370  S09W64  047  0040 CSO  04  002 BETA
7372  S12W35  018  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7374  S09W18  001  0180 DAO  08  023 BETA
7378  N12W00  343  0050 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7379  S11E27  316  0060 HAX  01  001 ALPHA
7381  N06E30  313  0100 DAO  07  016 BETA
7382  S16E47  296  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7369  S07W74  057                    PLAGE
7376  N17W06  349                    PLAGE
7380  S17W84  067                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 DECEMBER TO 28 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
25/B0006             A0704       S35E55   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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