From: chill@walt.UUCP (Curtis Hill)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.basketball.college
Subject: Carolina Preview, Part I (long)
Date: 29 Sep 92 20:50:30 GMT




[After you're finished (sometime next summer) feel free to direct any
additional Carolina questions or comments on this small book you might have
to me via email.  I'll get back to you with whatever I know or can find out
about any questions and I'll diligently (cough) read the commentary.]

For ease of reading, here are the main sections:

o Introduction
o Last Season
   - Wrong/Right Last Season
   - Coaching
   - Returning Players
   - Last Season's Stats
   - New Players
o This Season
   - Offense
   - Defense
   - Strategies
   - Intangibles
   - Schedule
o Post-Season Potential
o General Commentary


--------------------------------------------------


Carolina 92-93:  An (Over)Extensive Look 
----------------------------------------------
Copyright 1992
Curtis Hill


In 1990, Dean Smith signed what was considered by many to be the greatest
recruiting class in history.  It might have been, until Steve Fisher signed
2 NBA players and 3 college guys to play for Michigan the next year.
Clearly, the skill level of the five Carolina players wasn't as high
as Michigan's (most notably Webber and Rose), plus Michigan's Fab 5 had
the opportunity to play an entire season.  Carolina's Fab 5 had to wait in 
the wings their first year and support a core unit that made its way to
the Final 4.

At the end of the 90-91 season, Clifford Rozier transferred to Louisville
so he could pursue his collegiate career at a university that wouldn't make
him play defense, leaving the Carolina frontcourt either quick and short or
slow and tall.  Clifford's transfer surely affected the performance of the
91-92 team and its style of play.  The biggest effect was that Pat Sullivan
was forced into too many minutes a year too soon.  With Clifford on the team,
Lynch would have gotten most of Pat's minutes at the wing, sharing with Reese.

However, overall, the biggest problems with the 91-92 team were an overreliance
on Hubert Davis, an overreliance on youth, and the inability to hit medium
to long range jumpers.


What Was Wrong Last Year?
-------------------------

Many of the strengths of the 91-92 Carolina team turned out to be some of its
most devastating weaknesses as well.  The largest and most dangerous of these
two-edged swords was the offensive firepower of Hubert Davis.  Hubert had one
of the most outstanding offensive years of any Carolina player ever, shooting
42.9% from the three point area, being the first player in 6 years to average
over 20 pts per game; the first guard since Jordan in 1982-83.  His 21.4 ppg
average was the highest ppg for a season since Charlie Scott averaged over
22 ppg for each of his three years from 68-70 (including 27.1 as a senior).
(Phil Ford probably would have averaged over 22 ppg if the three point shot
had existed in the 1970's.)  Hubert did this while being very consistent, only
having really one bad game (@ UVa) up until the ACC Tournament and the NCAA's,
when an injured ankle affected his shooting.  However, these excellent shooting
performances, which bailed Carolina out of a couple of tough games early, led
to the team becoming too dependent on Hubert.  No other player really developed
a consistent outside shot outside of 10 feet, although occasionally Reese,
Phelps, or Sullivan would knock down a few threes.  At crucial times, the team
looked for Hubert to score. Of course, so did the opposition.  This usually
led to a scrambled offensive effort with Hubert getting off an off-balance
shot, someone else shooting a bad shot, or a turnover.

There was no real answer to the overreliance on youth.  The good players
on this team were young.  Five sophomores, one freshman, two juniors and
one senior got the lion's share of the minutes last season.  Plus, the
sophomores really hadn't had a year's worth of game experience, as they
played behind a solid starting five their first year.  There were many problems
with playing this young lineup, including offensive inconsistency, inconsistent
fast breaks, poor decision making, and spurts of poor defense.  However, on the
plus side, this young team did not quit, played hard, and learned from their
mistakes.

An inability to hit medium to long range jumpers was another big problem
for this team.  All season, no one really had to worry about hitting the
outside shot, because Hubert was there.  This really wasn't too important as
far as three point shooting went; Carolina could have done better with no
consistent three point threat other than Davis.  However, the key here is
that no one really developed that consistent 12-15 footer that was always
there with the defenses Carolina faced.  Lynch, who had been pretty good
from about the foul line the year before, lost his shot.  Reese and Rodl
never really pulled up too much from that area and Phelps didn't shoot a
good percentage from there all year.  If you'll remember the 1990-91 team,
Fox would shoot from the outside while Hubert would often hit that foul line
jumper.  The only other players on last year's squad who could hit this shot
were Cherry (no place to play) and Williams, who just wasn't ready to play the
point for long stretches, especially defensively.  Not much of a plus side to
this problem except that it is so bad last season, it can only get better
this year.


What Was Right Last Year?
-------------------------

Now that we've discussed the biggest troubles faced by the 91-92 team,
let's go on to the good points.  At times, this team played suffocating
defense, and excepting a few notable occasions, the team played good
defense all season.  Having to play a young team last year means that these
players will be well-seasoned for the upcoming campaign.  Several players
showed marked improvement as the season went on, most notably Reese and
Montross.  Kevin Salvadori tailed off late, but has made great strides in
the last year.  It is also easy to see in which areas (shooting, running the
break, etc.) this team needs to improve in order to become better.


How Was the Coaching?
---------------------

Overall, I thought Coach Smith did a good job with this team.  I thought
they would get to the Sweet 16 and, with a bit of luck, to the Final 8.
They ended up finishing in the Sweet 16, losing a hard-fought game to Ohio
State.  Smith let the young players play, even when they did make mistakes.
He worked at trying to give players confidence and letting them show their
skills in games.  Probably Smith's finest moment in this department was letting
Reese take the last shot versus Wake Forest at Chapel Hill, which led to Brian
hitting the game winning shot.

There were a couple of things that Coach Smith did that I did not agree with,
and one thing I wish he would have done.  First, he stayed with the trapping
defense too long.  He finally gave up on it toward the end of the season,
but this team did not have the quickness or experience to execute the trap
effectively.  It's hard to trap in college basketball nowadays, since many of
the guards see it regularly in high school ball.  Secondly, I wish he would
have let Donald play just a few more minutes per game for Derrick.  I know
Donald didn't play defense as well, but if the defense slips and leaves Donald
open, you've had a real good chance at a three.  Finally, I do wish Dean would
introduce a sixth offense to the Carolina package.  Either a big man screening
up high (like State used 2 years ago) or an aggressive screening game outside
(like Miami of Ohio used in the tournament) for a three-point shot oriented
offense.  I think adding one of these offenses, and going with three guards,
would have opened things up quite a bit.


Who's Back?
-----------

Scott Cherry
6'4" 175 lb Senior

Scott tried too hard during the beginning of last season with Williams
on the team and ended up not playing well all season.  He lost his confidence
for most of the year and never really played much after the early part of
the schedule.  Scott just doesn't have the quickness or skills to even backup
Phelps.  He also tended to get flustered on the court and make mistakes.
However, Scott is a good shooter and understands the game well.  Scott also
plays defense well, too.  Scott will get some time early this year, and will
probably end up seeing a bit more playing time overall than you might expect
during the year.

Area to improve: ballhandling, court presence

George Lynch
6'7" 220 lb Senior

George has improved during his previous three years at Carolina, he just
hasn't improved in the areas he really needs to.  George is in great
condition, strong, and lightning quick.  He's a better rebounder, stronger,
and has more stamina now than he was when he came to UNC, and he doesn't make
as many dumb fouls (although it's still more than he should).  However, George
must develop a consistent 15 foot jumper.  Improving his ballhandling skills
would be a plus, too.  George will never find the kind of success in college
and the NBA he is capable of without developing these skills.  If George 
wants to get much more than spot time at the wing this year, he must handle
the ball better and shoot better.  I'd also like to see George make better
decisions on the break, especially getting the ball to a guard early.

Summer rumor: George has been working hard on his ballhandling and shooting.

Areas to improve: needs consistent jumper, better ballhandling, fast break
judgements

Henrik Rodl
6'6" 200 lb Senior

Played really well near the end of the season.  Henrik did a really good job,
usually, backing up Phelps at the point.  Henrik needs to be a bit more
aggressive shooting the open three, although he needs to be wide open because
he uses a slow set shot.  Henrik's a bit slow to play point all the time; a bit
slow to play shooting guard full-time; a bit slow to play the wing full-time.
He can sub effectively at each position, though.  Additionally, Henrik can
pass well, usually doesn't make mistakes, and can play stifling defense on
all but the quickest (Cassell-like) opponents.  I sincerely hope Dean plans
to use Rodl as a 6th man this year.  Not starting, but coming in early in
the game, especially if Phelps, Reese, or Williams has a bad start.

It will be interesting to see how Henrik plays during the Olympics and how
the Olympic qualifying and competition help his confidence and game.

[Henrik played very well for the German Olympic team.  In the games I watched,
the Germans played better defense and ran a smoother offense with Henrik in
the game.  Henrik was one of the few Germans who had a clue about how to
play defense.  His ballhandling seems to have improved over the summer.
Henrik still isn't looking for his shot, though.  However, it's hard to
make that judgement just by watching his play with the German squad.]

Areas to improve: taking the open shot, ballhandling (left hand)

Matt Wenstrom
7' 255 lb Senior

Matt showed remarkable improvement during his short stints last season.  He's
much less stiff and has a better shot.  Still tends to foul whenever the
ball gets near him on defense, but he's not as bad as he used to be (He used
to get a foul every time the opponent brought the ball across the mid-court
line).  Has shown signs of being an excellent passer.  Matt needs to improve
his defense down low and get more consistent on the offensive end.  Could play
more than people think as a backup to Montross.  Matt could end up having
a Mark Eaton-esque (not All-Star, but from an unknown benchrider to decent
player) career in the NBA if he continues to improve.  I think he's nearly
as good as most of the stiff NBA centers playing today [see Kleine, Joe,
Kite, Greg, and Koncak, Joe].  OK, maybe that's a stretch.  Europe or
Australia do seem more likely post-graduation destinations for Matt.  I do
think he's a bit better than most give him credit for, solely because he
just doesn't get to play.  Some folks don't like his attitude (surly and
rough in games), which I can understand.  Could stand a better haircut.

Summer activity:  Playing lots of pickup games.

Areas to improve: post moves, foot work, avoiding dumb fouls

Eric Montross
7' 275 lb Junior

Eric really blossomed in the NCAA tournament last year.  He carried UNC
versus Miami of Ohio and became the team leader during the Ohio State
game.  He's an incredible competitor and has a strong body.  He's finally
starting to grasp and use the skills being taught to him by Dean and the
coaching staff.  Eric's keeping the ball up when he gets it in the blocks
and learning not to make as many stupid fouls on defense.  Another move or
two down low and a consistent 15 foot shot should move Eric to All-American
status. I don't know if that will all happen this year, though.  He needs to
get that jump-hook going consistently and the confidence to carry the team
anytime it needs it.

Summer rumor: Eric's put on 10 pounds and is now playing at 275.  Yikes.
Worked against the Dream Team(tm) before the Olympics.

Areas to improve: more inside moves, avoid dumb fouls (especially sticking
out his leg instead of moving his body), hit open jumpers (er, shots.  He
shouldn't jump while shooting.)

Derrick Phelps
6'4" 180 lb Junior 

Derrick was probably the most frustrating player to watch all season.
He'd do a lot of things very well, then do a few dumb things.  Derrick is
basically missing two things from his game.  The first is a consistent
jump shot.  Derrick really needs to start sticking the open jumper
from 12 feet out to the 3 point line.  The second thing is consistency
in running the fast break.  Early in the year, Derrick ran the break to
perfection; late in the year he did not.  I don't think the entire blame
should fall on Derrick, because the team as a whole didn't finish or execute
breaks very well.  However, things would have been better if he had been more
consistent.  Derrick plays exceptional defense and has excellent ballhandling
and passing skills.  When he's in the flow, he makes world-class passes that
shows excellent court-vision and court-sense.  A solid jumper would make
Derrick a very dangerous point man.

Summer rumor: Derrick's been working on his defense but not on his shot.
This is somewhat distressing, but his defense should be outstanding.
[And one doesn't work on shooting skills during pickup games, especially
ones with Reid, Perkins, Daugherty, etc.  You give them the rock. So who
knows what the real story is on his shooting.]

Areas to improve:  shooting, decisions on break

Brian Reese
6'6" 215 lb. Junior

The most physically gifted player on the team, Brian is ever so close to
breaking loose and playing consistent, outstanding basketball.  There are
flashes of brilliance:  Brian driving through a host of defenders and soaring
for a dunk; Brian making an exceptional pass to a teammate; Brian hammering
down an alley-oop pass.  As great as his potential is, Brian still needs alot
of polishing.  He has a good, but not consistent, jump shot; his ballhandling
could be much better; he sometimes doesn't make the best decisions on the
court; he sometimes gets lost on defense; he sometimes tries shots that are
too difficult; he needs to continue improving his stamina.  However, these are
six areas that Brian can improve on by hard work.  Brian is staying in Chapel
Hill this summer to work on his game instead of going back to NYC like he did
last summer.  Brian admitted this hurt his game, as he played street ball
instead of working on the basics.  I think he'll show significant improvement
in a variety of areas this year.  Brian has an exercise-induced asthma
condition which he's working hard to overcome.

Summer rumor:  working hard on stamina and playing pickup

Areas to improve: stamina, ballhandling, shooting, making good decisions

Kevin Salvadori
7'1" 230 lb. Junior

Kevin has improved the most, from his first year at UNC to the present,
of any player since Chilcutt. Actually, his improvement has been more 
dramatic than Pete's.  You may have to go back to Warren Martin to find
this kind of improvement.  It's rather hard to believe how skinny,
unskilled, and awkward Kevin was during his redshirt year.  Kevin shoots
well for a big man and is an excellent shot blocker.  He needs to become
more aggressive rebounding and get stronger to handle the pounding inside.
Kevin also needs to get some more inside moves, as folks have caught on to
his lone move, the baseline fallaway.  Kevin could become very, very good
by the time he leaves UNC.  Excellent NBA potential, especially if he weighs
between 240-260 lbs by that time.

Summer rumor: Kevin is now up to 230 lbs., which is about 10 lbs heavier than
last season.   That's a good, solid base.  Also working on his stamina to
help combat his asthma (the same condition as Reese).

Areas to improve: strength, aggressiveness, stamina 

Pat Sullivan
6'8" 220 lb Junior

Pat suffered last season from being inexperienced, unconfident, and
playing out of position.  Pat's just not quite quick enough to play
the wing 20 minutes a game like he was asked to early in the year and
his defensive fundamentals weren't quite good enough to cover-up the
lack of quickness.  Pat shows some nice things on the floor at times.
He's a good passer, very good at tapping in rebounds, and hustles all
the time.  He also has a good shot, when he chooses to shoot it.  However,
he combines these good things with some bad qualities.  He often does
the wrong thing on the court, or looks like he's confused and then
does something bad.  For having good hands to tap the ball in, sometimes
he looks like he has butterfingers (ala Chilcutt before his senior year).
I think Pat will play with more confidence this year, as he really wasn't
quite ready for the minutes he got last season.  I believe his skills will
improve over the summer and he'll be given the opportunity to contribute to
the team.  I think he can contribute more at the power forward spot rather
than on the wing.  I hope Dean thinks so, too.

Summer rumor:  Pat's playing pick-up twice a day and has improved his shot
to 3 point range.

Areas to improve: confidence, defensive footwork, ballhandling

Donald Williams
6'3"  185 lb  Sophomore

Donald did not get much of a chance to play last year, and what minutes
he got were at point guard.  Donald was a shooting guard (scoring machine)
in high school and was not very comfortable playing the point for Carolina.
I personally thought he did a fine job, given his experience coming in.  He
ran the team better, most of the time, than Kenny Harris did the season
before.  If anything, Donald was too tentative in shooting the ball, looking
to pass when he had an open shot.  This season, Donald will essentially be
given the starting shooting guard spot and he will start (or play most of the
minutes, if Rodl starts) unless he really plays poorly in practice or is
injured.  Donald is a scorer, but also athletic and a good defender.  He has
the ability to hit jumpers from well outside three-point distance, he can
drive by you and stick the jumper, and he can take it to the hole.  Donald
handles the ball well and is very quick, with an excellent attitude to boot.
I look for Donald to have a surprising, for what most people expect, season.
He may not be Hubert Davis yet, but he'll be something to watch.

Summer rumor: playing well in pickup games and in the Raleigh summer league.
Shooting the ball well.

Areas to improve:  ballhandling, defensive skills

Last Season's Stats
-------------------
(Note:  I would have rather had this broken down with per minute averages,
but the UNC SID office didn't have this information.)

                 Field Goals  Free Throws
         Games   M-A   Pct    M-A   Pct   Reb  Avg   A  TO   S  PF-D   Pts  Avg
Burgess   13     0-4    0.0   1-4   25.0    7  0.5   3   2   4   5-0     1  0.1
Cherry    15     3-19  15.8   4-9   44.4   15  1.0   8   8   1  10-0    11  0.7
Davis     33   241-474 50.8 140-169 82.8   76  2.3  52  45  42  42-0   707 21.4
Lynch     33   192-356 53.9  74-114 64.9  291  8.8  86  77  66 105-6   459 13.9
Montross  31   140-244 57.4  68-109 62.4  218  7.0  18  47  17 112-4   348 11.2
Phelps    33   106-265 40.0  74-104 71.2  115  3.5 207 111  78  75-2   303  9.2
Reese     32   120-245 49.0  59-76  77.6  125  3.9  70  81  15  45-1   315  9.8
Rodl      33    39-73  53.4  15-27  55.6   49  1.5  84  38  27  45-1   101  3.1
Salvadori 33    73-134 54.5  49-66  74.2  121  3.7  11  32   6  72-1   195  5.9
Smith     11     4-9   44.4   2-2  100.0   10  0.9   2   8   0   3-0    10  0.9
Stephenson 8     3-3  100.0   0-0    0.0    1  0.1   0   3   1   0-0     6  0.8
Sullivan  32    63-133 47.4  38-47  80.9   91  2.8  45  54  19  51-0   171  5.3
Wenstrom  30    29-52  55.8   6-12  50.0   40  1.3  12  10   3  21-0    64  2.1
Williams  29    26-69  37.7   4-7   57.1   19  0.7  18  17   4  12-0    65  2.2

Team
UNC       33 1039-2080 50.0 534-746 71.6 1264 38.3 616 538 283 598-15 2756 83.5 
Opp       33  909-2093 43.4 444-630 70.5 1119 33.9 526 566 252 614-19 2494 75.6

Three Point Shooting - Davis 85-198(42.9),Phelps 17-60(28.3),Reese 16-51(31.4),
Williams 9-31(29.0),Rodl 8-23(34.8),Sullivan 7-30(23.3),Cherry 1-6(16.7),
Lynch 1-8(12.5).

Blocked Shots - Salvadori 63; Montross 30; Phelps, Lynch 10; Davis 7; Rodl 6;
Sullivan 5; Wenstrom, Reese 4; Williams, Cherry, Stevenson 1.

Charged Drawn - Phelps 39; Lynch 15; Sullivan, Reese 12; Rodl 9;
Davis, Montross 8; Salvadori 6; Williams 2; Wenstrom, Burgess 1.

Quick note -- using projected minutes, Carolina is close to having 5 double
figure scorers (Williams projects to around 14 ppg).  It will be interesting
to see how many Carolina players can average in double figures scoring next
year.  "The more the merrier" is very true in this case.




Curtis Hill
star3!walt!chill@mcnc.org