From: vhs@rhein-main.de (Volker Herminghaus-Shirai)
Subject: Re: A rosy forecast for 93
Reply-To: vhs@rhein-main.de
Date: Sat, 2 Jan 93 20:13:19 GMT

In article <Jan01.223703.26806@yuma.ACNS.ColoState.EDU>  
randall@redfish.atmos.colostate.edu (Dave Randall) writes:
> An optimistic forecast for 93

indeed ;-)

> Here is a rosy view of how NeXT will fare in 1993. Note: I have no inside  
> information; the predictions below are based on an imaginative reading of  
> netnews and the media. There is at least some (apparent) basis for each item.
> 
> 1. Faster 040 machines are introduced early in the year. Prices on slabs are  
> cut. An inexpensive color upgrade for the cube is announced, and it becomes  
> clear that the cube has a future. ND officially dies, though.

Could be right except for the cheap_color and ND_death part.

> 2. NeXTSTEP 486 is released almost on time, and is advertised extravagantly,

Agree.

> by NeXT standards. An introductory promotion is announced.

Agree.

> Jerry Pournelle
> reviews  NeXTSTEP 486 in his Byte column. Media coverage is broad and very
> enthusiastic.

Wrong. Media are "sponsored" by M$, Sun, IBM, etc. Also, most rags prefer
to pamper and stroke their DOS-based readership a la "...but taking into
account the vast amount of incredibly great Microsoft apps and the higher
raw SCSI transfer rate, MS-DOS still wins by far over Solaris and NeXTSTEP."

> NeXTSTEP 486 is promoted as the "high-end" PC software with snob appeal -- a  
> Lexus 400SC to Microsoft's Taurus (NT).

Wrong. It's clearly a NeXTcedes SL vs. a tuned Lada (Lose 3.1) or its
successor, the brand new 3-wheel-drive, 7 cylinder, overhead crapshaft
OddBall 2000NT (doors, seats & dashboard compatible with Ford Model T)

> 3. A NeXT-Cannon luggable (brief-case sized) machine is announced, with a  
> large, high-resolution color LCD screen that wows the industry. 

Based on which processor? Anyway, as far as I've heard Canon (not Cannon :-)
is working on a different display technology, superior to LCD. Color.

> 4. The NRW turns out to be based on multiple HP PA-RISC chips. Upgrades are  
> available for at least some of the existing machines.

Both very likely IMHO.

> NeXTSTEP is also made  
> available for use on HP 700 series workstations. HP thus takes advantage of  
the  
> opportunity that IBM threw away. The NeXT - HP deal is widely hailed as a  
> marriage of the best software and the best hardware available. 

Can't believe it. HP wouldn't want the hassle of introducing a new
incompatible OS on their machines. Besides, they would have to compete
against and work together with each other at the same time. For PA-RISC
based NeXTSTEP machines, that is.

> 5. A port of NeXTSTEP to SPARC is announced, and reaches the market late in  
the  
> year. Sales are brisk. Further ports are planned (SGI, PowerPC).

Not delivery this year, I'm sure. NeXT has too few people for that.

> 6. NeXTSTEP 486 achieves sales of 250,000 units in 1993, mostly to business  
and  
> government.

Yup, and they could append another '0' if they sold the developer's version
for $500 (too many royalties I'm afraid, though)

> 7. NeXT's revenues reach $350 million for 1993. An IPO is planned for early  
> 1994.

Will we ever know how much NeXT earns? It's still Steve's private pocket.

--
Volker Herminghaus-Shirai (vhs@qb.rhein-main.de)

Looks good on the outside, but -
	intel inside