From: ems@michael.apple.com (E. Michael Smith)
Newsgroups: sci.energy
Subject: Re: Running out of oil  ->THIS DECADE<-
Date: 18 Aug 92 20:38:29 GMT
Organization: Apple Computer Inc, Cupertino, CA

In article <1992Aug18.023813.28004@usenet.ins.cwru.edu> bl713@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Lev Tarasov) writes:
>
>I am not in the mood to get into a debate on global warming, but

Fine.  I've no desire to debate something that can't be proved either.

>I will refer you to Nature which publishes the scientific studies
>in the area (one of the may or june issues had a series of articles).

And there will continue to be articles on both sides for a while 
more to come.  I'll believe it when I see it...

>But global warming does not mean that it is going to be warmer 
>everywhere. 

Right.  And the most recent data suggest that it is going to be
warmer mostly at night and mostly in the colder places.  Sounds
fine to me...

>As for the use it or it just sits there unused attitude with respect 
>to fossil reserves, how do we know what all the future uses of 
>fossils fuels will be? Certain plastics might be only manufacturable
>from crude. 

Might me, but are not.  Look, you can turn any organic chemical
you have into any organic chemical you want with enough reagents, energy
and time.  I will catagorically state that there is and will never
be any plastic that can ONLY be made from crude.  Cheaper, yes, only, no.

>If all the external costs of fossil usage were included 
>in the price, then the economic system would encourage the develop-
>ment of alternatives at a more appropriate time. 

A minor quible, the alternatives are already 'developed', they just
need to be implimented.  You can go out today and by conversions to 
run you vehicle on {electricity, CNG, Propane, Methanol, Ethanol, etc.}
off the shelf.  You can add solar heat and electricity to your 
house today, off the shelf.  

A second quible:  While I'm as great an advocate of Adam Smith's
'Invisible Hand' as the next guy, not all things need to be driven
via the pricing structure.  In California TODAY we are converting
our automotive fleet to alternative fuels.  Via a simple law that
requires a given degree of cleanness in the vehicle fleet.  A similar
process exists for non-vehicle emissions.  You pollute, you fix it
to spec or you pay (or sometimes both).

>However, the hidden
>subsidies distort the economic incentives, and as such I expect
>serious social dislocations will occur when major shortages force
>a conversion.

Excuse me?  Are we back on the 'major shortages' thread again?  WHAT
shortages?  Who is going to cause them?  How?  Even the forcing of
stringent clean air standards won't cause a wholesale conversion
away from fossil fuels.  It WILL cause an advance of the USE of
the EXISTING technologies for things like scrubbers, combined
cycle generators with gassification, fuel cells, etc.

Not all things are subject to chaos and catastrophy.  Some things
do go through gradual evolution.  And, after the 1970's embargo
experience, we are very well prepared to deal with any disruptions
that might happen again.  (Everything from the US Strategic Petroleum
Reserve, to the utilities that can now convert from oil to NG and
back easily having done it before, to my continued ownership of an
old diesel truck that can eat anything just in case I need to...)

>The expressed continuous growth or die attitude seems appropriate
>for cancerous tissue, but not for an economic system dependent 
>on a functioning ecology.

Sirrah, you mis-represent my statements badly!  I did NOT say 
'continuous growth or die' i said continuous technological advance
or suffer.  

One can have continuous technological advance with stable 
or decreasing population (and, in fact, the best form
of 'birth control' seems to be a technological society!).  
My position is more akin to that of an evolving ecology.  Stable
numbers, but increasing inteligence with each generation.

-- 

E. Michael Smith  ems@apple.COM

'Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has
 genius, power and magic in it.'  -  Goethe

I am not responsible nor is anyone else.  Everything is disclaimed.
Xref: sparky sci.energy:3977 sci.environment:10649