From: tobac@ub-tky.UBSPD.CO.JP (Bach Frederic)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.japan
Subject: Sumo - Hatsu Basho (Preview)
Date: 11 Jan 93 06:21:24 GMT
Organization: UBS Phillips & Drew INT'L Ltd. TOKYO, JAPAN

Oozumo fan no mina-san, shinnen akemashite, omedetou gozaimasu.
Kotoshi-mo, douzo yoroshiku onegai itashimasu.

This year sounds quite promising for sumo. In the spot light, we have
several wrestlers who have won one (Kotonishiki) or two (Takahanada,
Akebono, Konishiki) in recent tournaments, as well as promising
new talents (Daishoho, Musashimaru). The issues at stake are Yokozuna
promotion for Akebono, and maybe (big maybe) for Konishiki, and, in 
a first stage, Ozeki promotion for Taka and Koto, and maybe for
Musashimaru.

Akebono : although he is still young and has not yet had two consecutive
10+ records in makunouchi, a reason many use to refute promotion to
Yokozuna now, I think he should get promoted this year. The best for him 
would probably be to not try to win the yusho this time, but go for
11-12 wins. This would relieve him of pressure, and by winning two tourneys
later in the year, ensure promotion due to record plus consistency. If he 
manages to hold his weight at 200 kg or less, the qualities that are
obviously present should easily lift him to the top rank.

Takahanada : He also obviously has the qualities, at least to make it to
Ozeki in the next three tourneys. He is my favorite for the New Year
Basho, and if he did win, would be promoted. I then expect him to have a 
1 year lull where he will concentrate on refining his skills before going for
Yokozuna. After all he is only twenty.

Kotonishiki : My alternate favorite for this tourney. He has strength, speeed
and a lot of heart, has already won one Yusho. With the right conditions,
should make it to Ozeki by the end of the year. His morphology is similar
to Hokutoumi's, but he would have to work a lot more to reach the former
Yokozuna's power and weight. 80% he makes it to Ozeki this year, but 90%
he doesn't make it to Yokozuna, and 60% he never makes it to the top.

Musashimaru : he has shown incredible strength and agility for a 160 kg+
wrestler, the way he spins around and evades when in a difficult position
is quite amazing. His problem seems more psychological than anything, and
maturity should catch up with his talent. I am not sure he can make it to
Ozeki this year, let's give it 60%, but I give him better chances than
Kotonishiki to ever make it to Yokozuna, maybe 70%.

Daishoho : He suddenly gained confidence towards the end of last year and
has now reached sanyaku. Will he break the ex-collegiate sumo jinx that has
prevented many of his predecessors to reach ozeki or higher? A point in
his favor is his slow pace towards the top which enables the wrestler
to acquire maturity, skill and accumulate experience as he goes. I believe
he feels more comfortable this way, and I only give him 40% to reach
Ozeki this year, but 75% to do it by the end of next year. 50% to reach
Yokozuna.

Konishiki : he seems glued in the perennial Ozeki spot now since it was
vacated by Hokutenyu. I believe he can hold on to the rank for a good three
years at least, with probably one more run at Yokozuna where I give him
only 30% chance of succeeding. His drawbacks are lack of confidence, weight
(could easily lose 50 kg) and injuries, that could all improve in parallel.
Still currently the most experienced wrestler at the top.

This message is now a little too long. If people are interested, I can 
manage a betting tournament for this year. Propose one name for the winner
of each tournament of the year. 3 points if you get it right, 1 point if
your guy is runner up. Two restrictions : send me your email before the
Wednesday 8:00 am JST (or fax if your mail bounces : +81-3-3597-8366,
attn : Fred BACH), and you can't have the same sequence as me (since I'm
posting it in front of everybody) :

Hatsu Basho : Takahanada
Osaka Basho : Akebono
Natsu Basho : Akebono
Nagoya Basho: Takahanada
Aki Basho   : Kotonishiki
Kyushu Basho: Akebono.

Second betting tourney : for the top six wrestlers, give the number of wins
for the current tourney. 4 points if you are on target, 2 points if he scores
one more, 1 point if he scores one less (it easier to lose one than win one).
Again, you can't use my sequence, and your bet should get in by Wednesday
morning.

Akebono		: 12
Konishiki	: 10
Takahanada	: 13
Kotonishiki	: 10
Musashimaru	:  9
Daishoho	:  8

Now that this mail has grown, I've decided to put the results in a 
separate entry.
-- 
    __  _    
** ||_ /_| **   Fred "I'll be" Bach      (kddlab!ubspd.co.jp!tobac@uunet.uu.net)
** || /__| **   [Je suis athee, Dieu merci.]          Tel. 813-3597-1595