From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 July
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1992 03:29:03 GMT

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                  DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                29 JULY, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 JULY
--------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 211, 07/29/92
10.7 FLUX=098.1  90-AVG=125        SSN=073      BKI=1221 1101  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=7.6E+04  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1221 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=008,016,016,007,006,007,004,009   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.4   @ 2312UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 0120UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1310UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2250UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1735UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1945UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55247NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55202NT @ 1741UT  BOUTF-AVG=55228NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+106NT@ 2100UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+001NT@ 0424UT  G7-AVG=+083,+042,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 2206UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-009NT@ 1256UT  G6-AVG=+096,+004,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,105;SESC:100,100,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2234 1233 2234 2233  27DAY-AP=020,008   27DAY-KP=3554 2223 2231 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became low.  There were three primary C-class flares
today, all of which were fairly long in duration.  Two were from the west
limb near N17 and one was from Region 7242 (N18E44).  The west limb events
belonged to either Region 7232 or 7236.  The most impressive event was a C1.1
flare near 18:53 UT that was followed by a long-duration (4 to 5 hour) x-ray
enhancement that maxed at a class C1.4 level at 23:12 UT.  This event was
not associated with any significant radio activity.

     Regions 7238 (S20E05) and 7242 remained fairly stable and insignificant.
All of the other regions also remained stable and quiet.

     Solar activity is expected to continue generally low over the next 24
hours.  There is a chance levels of activity may increase slightly on 31 July
and 01 August as old Region 7220 (S13) returns to the southeast limb.  This
region was responsible for six correlated M-class flares and one X-class
event.  A possible seventh M-class flare is thought to have originated from
this region when it was about one half of a day behind the west limb. It is
due to appear on the east limb early in the UT day of 01 August.  This spot
complex was in the process of decaying as it departed the west limb and is
not expected to return in a very volatile configuration.  However, background
x-ray levels are expected to become slightly enhanced, possibly in tandem
with a minor increase in C-class flare activity.  No major activity is
expected with the return of this region.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours.  No significant
changes are expected.  Generally quiet to unsettled conditions should persist
throughout the next 24 to 72 hours.

     Auroral activity stabilized and became dormant early in the UT day.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  Similar
conditions are expected over the next 72 hours.  High and polar latitudes
should observe mostly fair to occasionally good propagation, while low and
middle latitude paths are expected to enjoy good propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7238  S20E05  144  0160 CSO  09  005 BETA
7240  S13W48  197  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7241  N15E30  119  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7242  N18E44  105  0150 CAO  06  003 BETA
7243  N12W66  215  0020 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7244  N17E56  093  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7239  S13W75  224                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 JULY TO 01 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7231 N03   041
7220 S13   030


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 JULY
---------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0528 0529 0529                          120
 2306 2307 2308                          250


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 JULY
-------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
29/ 1755     1808     1839                LDE    C1.2   43


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA  OBSN
                       NO HOLES VISIBLE


**  End of Daily Report  **