From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Tanana
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Distribution: na
Date: Sun, 3 Jan 1993 09:28:40 GMT

In article <1992Dec28.220207.15406@asd.com> scott@asd.com (Scott Barman) writes:
>In article <mcmath-231292082221@mcmathmac.nlm.nih.gov> mcmath@csb1.nlm.nih.gov (Chuck Totally Hair McMath) writes:

>>	Maybe I was too harsh on Frank.  Ok, ok, he deserves a job.

>My turn, since it was my posting that started this...

>>	Let me rephrase the argument, then.  Don't you think you could find 3
>>pitchers on each AAA farm team who could be counted on to put up similar
>>numbers (+ or - a std deviation)?  Granted, the Mets just couldn't pick up
>>any of these guys, so I was exaggerating.  So maybe I overestimated the
>>talent pool.  

>Overestimated?  Try over-exaggerated!

Why do you say this?  Is there a real reason to think that the bottom
X% of the major leagues is better than the top X% of the minor leagues?
I don't think so.  What is X?  Is it 10?  20?  I don't know offhand;
I'll have to get back to you on that.

In fact, I think that the top echelon of talent in AAA would probably be
average in the major leagues.  I think the major difference is that
there is a bigger dropoff from them to the rest of AAA than the
difference in the majors.  But I could put together a AAA all-star team
that would win 90+ games in the majors.

>>But why would the Mets, who unarguably will be out of it in 93, want to
>>give 200 IP to Tanana, when you could use those innings to find out if some
>>of that AAA talent is legit?

>What if they don't have AAA talent to see if he's legit?

Well, they're doing a good job of trading (or not protecting) their
minor league pitching talent, but I still find it hard to believe they don't 
have *anyone* in the minors who pitched for them last year.

Joe Vitko?  He doesn't look like much, but he might be.  Eric Hillman?
Mark Dewey?  Mark Draper (Is that his name?  The guy from the Yankees.)?

>>And, I'd expect that any pitcher from AAA who would be promoted to the 
>>ML would be cheaper than Tanana, so you'd save money.

>Money is one thing, being able to deliver is another.  If the choice is
>between a AAA pitcher who has proven nothing and a (relativly) cheap,
>one years stop-gap to see if the AAA pitcher is for real, why not go
>with the one year stop-gap?

Because, unless you're contending and you don't want to take *any*
gambles, what does that stop-gap get you?  Nothing at all.  In fact, at
Tanana's age, I doubt he's any less of a gamble than a AAA pitcher.

>Why not let him prove it in the majors?  What happens to a pitcher's
>psyche if you put him out there and he gets the hell beat out of him?

I have no idea, and neither do you.  Nor does anyone else in the world
except that specific individual pitcher.

Maybe it hurt Mike Morgan.  Maybe.  But it certainly didn't seem to
bother Tom Glavine.  Or Steve Avery.  Or Greg Maddux.  Just to name the 
first three that came to mind.

>You can keep telling him he is a marvelous pitcher all you want, but
>he's going to see high ERAs, short appearances, hear the crowd yelling
>(and New York crowds are very creative, just ask Jose Canseco!), and
>read the papers all saying what kind of stiff he is.  With all that, do
>you know what you get?  You get Julio Valera thinking that the Mets
>don't care about him and don't think he's really a good pitcher because
>they kept telling him how wonderful he is after getting pounded night
>after night by the National League, Mets fans, and media.  So he goes
>out and tries to do his imitation of the Goodyear Blimp which lowers his
>value and the Mets lose a good prospect because he is now traded for
>someone they (think they) need.  Valera will be a good pitcher,
>eventually, but not with the Mets after his "abuse" in 1991.

How do you know?  I mean, really.  Maybe he'll, (wait, I need to think
up some mediot bullschott cliche) "Be challenged by the fans attitude
and use it to motivate himself to make himself better."

Do you think it's better for a pitcher's psyche to be left in AAA and get
the message that the team doesn't really believe in him?  Is it better
for him to hear that he has something to prove when he's already doing
everything he can in AAA?  Again, I don't have any idea, and I doubt you 
do either.

Aren't you making an awfully hasty claim that Valera couldn't be
successful with the Mets based on *13* innings?  Yes, *13*.  That's it.
That's his so-called "getting pounded night after night by the National
League," his "abuse in 1991."

In 1992, BTW, he pitched 2 *scoreless* innings for them.  That's about
as relevant, really.

>>  If worst came to worst, promote some career minor leaguer, give him
>>a shot, and see if he comes thru.  If so, you're ahead.  If not, you
>>*still* finish 5th or 6th, and who gives a flying farkle?

>That's if you have the career minor leaguer.  You have to have someone
>to promote, first!

But since Tidewater had a pitching rotation, they obviously had someone
pitching for them.  Therefore, they have minor league pitchers.  

>>	While it's true you *might* end up with someone who's a lot worse than
>>Tanana, you also might end up with someone who's better.  Tanana's a known
>>quantity; the question is, is he a quantity you want, or can you do better?

>How do you know you can do better?  You have to have something to do
>better with.

Number one, he didn't say you *can* do better.  He asked: *Can* you do
better?  Number two, are you really saying the Mets have NO ONE in AAA?
Really?  I admit they dumped their best people, but still...

>>The only reason to sign and pitch Tanana would be to prove that "we have a
>>committment to winning, and we value the leadership of someone like Frank."
>> In other words, your typical GM bullshott (love that word!).

>Gee... if Harazin really said that you would sound real smart.  But as I
>originally posted, he was brought in to be the fifth starter.  He was
>not brought in for any "leadership."  They want 200 innings, not a
>clubhouse lawyer!

Big deal.  *I* can give them 200 innings, and I'll generously agree to
accept the major league minimum salary.  Then they can save money so
they can sign a David Cone instead of a Frank Tanana next time.

They don't want 200 innings.  Okay, maybe they do, but they shouldn't.
What they should want is 200 *GOOD* innings.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Is it too early to start making predictions for 1993?
niepornt@phoenix.    | Probably, but that never stopped me before.
   princeton.edu     | ALE: Baltimore ALW: Chicago NLE: Montreal NLW: Atlanta
Baltimore Orioles 93 | AL MVP: Cal Ripken  AL Cy Young: Mike Mussina
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