From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 7 Sep 1992 10:23:06 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              06 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 250, 09/06/92
10.7 FLUX=139.2  90-AVG=124        SSN=078      BKI=4442 2333  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=C1.2     FLU1=1.9E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3442 3233  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=045,068,069,016,017,026,037,038   DEV-AVG=039 NT     SWF=12:191
 XRAY-MAX= X1.7   @ 1852UT    XRAY-MIN= B9.0   @ 0014UT   XRAY-AVG= C8.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 0605UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1910UT     PCA-MIN= -2.7DB @ 1855UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55448NT @ 0203UT   BOUTF-MIN=55380NT @ 1854UT  BOUTF-AVG=55426NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+105NT@ 1840UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-007NT@ 0543UT  G7-AVG=+079,+045,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1916UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-026NT@ 1754UT  G6-AVG=+091,-018,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:145,145,150;SESC:145,145,150 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/015,020,015
    KFCST=3334 3333 3344 4322  27DAY-AP=010,012   27DAY-KP=3223 3232 2333 2333
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0/1N@0203;**MINFLR:M1.1/SF@0238;**MINFLR:M2.4/2N@0519;
          **MINFLR:M1.3/1F@0702;**MINFLR:M3.3/1N@0907;**MINFLR:M4.0/1N@1158;
          **MINFLR:M1.4/1N@1313;**MINFLR:M1.1/SF@1524;**MINFLR:M1.1/SN@1714;
          **MAJFLR:X1.7/2B@1852,S11W41(7270),1841-1852-2000;
          **MAJFLR:X1.3/1N@2059,S11W46(7270),2048-2059-2114;
          **TENFLR:420SFU@1843,DUR=5;**MINFLR:M1.3@2339UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became high today.  Region 7270 (S09W43) has become
exceptionally active over the last 24 to 36 hours, producing two major
X-class flares and ten additional minor M-class flares, all within the last
24 hours period.  Most of the flares have not been associated with
particularly strong radio bursts or sweep frequency events.  The largest
major flare of the day was a class X1.7/2B tenflare at 18:52 UT.  This event
had the highest integrated x-ray flux, near 0.24 joules per square meter and
was associated with a moderate to strong ionospheric short wave fadeout over
sunlit paths.  However, all of the flares observed today lacked any sweep
frequency events.

     A second major flare erupted out of this group shortly after the X1.7/2B
event.  This second flare attained a class X1.3/2B level at 20:59 UT, but
was more impulsive than the first major flare.  An associated tenflare
measured 210 sfu as compared to 420 sfu for the X1.7/2B flare.

     Region 7270 is continuing to grow and develop.  A beta-gamma-delta
configuration persists in this group.  This region is expected to continue
very volatile.  Minor and major flare activity is expected from this region.

     Other activity of interest included surging on the northeast limb near
N19.  This is likely associated with the anticipated return of old Region
7260, which was responsible for seven M-class flares during the last
rotation.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity will continue high over the next 24 hours, and moderate
to high for the following day or two.  Region 7270 is expected to continue to
produce frequent energetic flares as it crosses the western solar hemisphere.
There is a distinct possibility for proton flare activity from this region
prior to its departure.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active today.  Conditions
are subsiding from the recent days of geomagnetic storm activity that was
attributed to a well placed coronal hole.  Activity is expected to be mostly
unsettled to active over the next 72 hours.  There is a chance for active to
minor storm level conditions on 08 September due to the recent flurry of
minor and major flares from Region 7270.

     HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal over most regions
today.  MUFs remain below normal by approximately 10 to 25 percent, although
signal qualities have improved over the last 24 hours.  Conditions are
expected to improve further on 07 September.  Thereafter, conditions could
become degraded once again due to anticipated disturbances from the recent
minor and major flares.  The high levels of solar activity observed over the
last 24 hours are expected to continue and should produce corresponding
periods of moderate to occasionally strong short wave fadeouts over the low
and middle latitude sunlit signal paths.

     Operators should be aware of the increased threat for proton and
associated polar cap absorption activity.  Should a proton flare erupt, polar
paths signals could become substantially absorbed and degraded.  There is
a moderate threat for a proton flare from Region 7270 prior to its departure
of the west limb.  OMEGA navigation users should remain alert for the
development of signal errors due to proton-induced ionospheric activity until
after this active solar region departs the west limb in another four to five
days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7270  S10W43  037  0490 EKC  14  041 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7274  N06W22  016  0010 BXO  04  006 BETA
7275  S09W71  065  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7273  S16W42  036                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 SEPTEMBER TO 09 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7260 N16   255


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0028 0044 0056 7270  S08W32 C3.1  SF    340 44
 0106 0106 0111 7270  S10W31       SF    230
 0155 0203 0211 7270  S10W32 M1.0  1N    260 57
 0223 0238 0255 7270  S09W37 M1.1  SF
 0344 0345 0345                          360
 0408 0424 0433              C4.2        170 29
 0513 0519 0530 7270  S09W39 M2.4  2N    260 73
 0651 0702 0716 7270  S13W32 M1.3  1F    910 42
 0717 0740 0812 7270  S10W36       SN    430
 0900 0907 0929 7270  S11W38 M3.3  1N        52
 1145 1158 1245 7270  S11W42 M4.0  1N   2000 84
 1229 1229 1231                          450
 1246 1250 1253                          530
 1304 1313 1327 7270  S13W40 M1.4  1N        38
 1456 1524 1538 7270  S09W40 M1.1  SF    150
 1710 1714 1737 7270  S11W41 M1.1  SN    170
 1841 1852 2000 7270  S11W41 X1.7  2B    260 420
 2048 2059 2114 7270  S11W46 X1.3  1N     78 210
 2335 2339 2343              M1.3        370


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/ 1145     1158     1245       S11W42   LDE    M4.0   60
06/B1426             A1658       N11W36   DSF
06/ 1841     1852     2000       S11W41   LDE    X1.7   79


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
52   N18W53 S09W57 N02W84 N19W59  065  ISO   POS   011 10830A
53   N06E47 N05E45 N08E32 N15E42  317  ISO   POS   003 10830A
54   N20E66 N15E56 N22E47 N23E47  114  ISO   POS   001 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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