HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: bgoffe@seq.uncwil.edu (Bill Goffe)
Subject: Re: network resources for economists
Organization: Univ. of North Carolina @ Wilmington
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 19:27:15 GMT

As to the earlier suggestion to put working papers online from
departments, let me add that NBER working papers should be included
as well.

Online data would be quite interesting as well. Perhaps something
like an expanded version of the BLS' (?) Electronic Bulletin Board
available via gopher at the Univ. of Michigan (una.hh.lib.umich.edu)?
The possibilities are endless here, but unfortunately money isn't.
At any rate, a list of data available online would be quite useful.
Jim Love (don't have email address handy) would have good info on
this point.

Bill Goffe
bgoffe@seq.uncwil.edu
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: dprjdg@inetg1.ARCO.COM (John Grasham)
Subject: Surviving Hyper-Inflation
Organization: ARCO Oil and Gas Company
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 15:52:02 GMT

Just finished reading the book "Bankruptcy 1995" written by a man
named Figgie who was a (reluctant) member of the Grace Commission.
He was reluctant to participate in the commission until he became
convinced of the ominous aspects of the National Debt and the
servicing costs of same.

In the book, he predicts that around 1995-96, the interest on the
debt (including all "off-budget" items which must nevertheless
receive debt-service) will exceed revenues.  Then he projects:

1. Unwillingness by investors to loan money to the government

2. Government forced to monetize the debt

3. Hyper-Inflation

What do you think of this scenario?  Possible?  Unlikely?

I myself am more interested in how to survive personally in a
hyper-inflationary period.  What to do?  Convert all currency
and equivalents into (more) stable foreign currencies?  Convert
currency into hard assets?  What about servicing loans?  Wait
and pay them off with cheaper dollars?  I would be interested
in your ideas.  Thanks.

John G.
From: rs69@cunixb.cc.columbia.edu (Rong Shen)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: college student screwed up in life, need some advice on stock trading
Date: 6 Jan 93 03:03:44 GMT
Followup-To: -------> poster
Organization: Columbia University

Hi Experts:

	I had been studying physics in my freshman year, computer
science in my sophomore year, and now, in my junior year, I am doing
biology. What am I going to do in the future? Well, I know I am going
to fall off the cliff of science.

	Being financially independent is always an enticing idea to
me. This morning (1/5/93), I realized that I did not want to do
research all my life, and at the same time, the idea of investment in
stock or gold market, a brilliant inspiration which I had while I was
in the 10th grade in high school, flashed across my mind, and I
decided to start stretching my intellect into an unexplored territory.

	Dear experts, at your convenience, would you please recommend
a few books on stock trading, on how to sail with the wind of the
market, and how to get started?

	Thank you very, very much. May good luck be with you, always.

Rong Shen, rs69@cunixb.cc.columbia.edu
From: jfh@reef.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: GM Plant Closures and Economic Problems
Date: 12 Jan 93 02:22:14 GMT
Organization: Univ. of Florida CIS Dept.

In article <58506@dime.cs.umass.edu> yodaiken@chelm.cs.umass.edu (victor yodaiken) writes:

>>You can attribute these to the National Banking Act of 1860. This 
>>legislation centralized reserves in a few banks in NYC, creating a 
>>quasi-central bank. These banks could then influence the money supply
>>much greater than would have been possible had true free competition 
>>had been in place.
>
>Well, it sounds like your golden era of the stable dollar was a mighty
>short time -- a couple of years from the end of the eighteenth century and
>then up to 1860, minus, I suppose the years when the economy was affected
>by such government actions as the MExican war or the Lousiana purchase.

The dollar kept its value very well during this period, but the 
National Banking Act caused the boom bust cycle. Inflation doesn't
necessarily have to cause the price rise, if production and trade
are growing faster, but inflation can still lead to the same disruptions--

What happens is the free money that now enters the economy causes consumers
to spend more than normal, and causing business to expand more than
normal. After the inflation is done, these over-expanded sections of the 
economy are now deemed no longer necessary by the public, and these
sections go under. This is the cause of the recession. 

>>I believe one of the most stable banking experiments in history was
>>the Scottish free banking system--there were no legal tender laws, no
>>reserve requirements, no government monopoly on the money supply.
>>A very sound banking system was established, much to the envy of the
>>neighboring British, and it was based on a de facto gold standard. It 
>>finally crumbled after legislation was passed regulating the industry,
>>I believe.
>
>Was Scotland an independent nation at the time of this experiment?
>I doubt it.

I am not sure. What difference does it make?

>Why do I get the feeling that yoou have already made up your mind about
>what works and what doesn't and are just snatching random historical
>straws to keep your theory afloat?

Sorry, the evidence is there. The CPI jumps when large amounts of currency
are introduced into the economy. The price jumps of inflation can be hidden
for *a while* by a productive economy, but the recession is bound to come.

Jim Hranicky (jfh@reef.cis.ufl.edu)

Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: hamachi@adobe.com (Gordon Hamachi)
Subject: Re: Surviving Hyper-Inflation
Organization: Adobe Systems Incorporated
Distribution: usa
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 22:15:28 GMT

John Grasham writes
> Just finished reading the book "Bankruptcy 1995" written by a man
> named Figgie who was a (reluctant) member of the Grace Commission.
> 
> In the book, he predicts that around 1995-96, the interest on the
> debt (including all "off-budget" items which must nevertheless
> receive debt-service) will exceed revenues.

I read the book and it scares the hell out of me.

One nice thing about "Bankruptcy 1995" is that it contains a "Debt Buster's"  
guide to action.  It suggests all sorts of measures, such as writing or calling  
representatives, organizing petition drives and letter-writing campaigns.  The  
book includes addresses and phone numbers for the President and Congress.   
There are even some guidelines for staging media events.

As a first step, I wrote to my Senators, to:
    tell them this is the most important issue now facing our country
    warn that we are headed for economic collapse
    ask what they intend to do about it
    urge them to support fiscal responsibility

I recommend that you do the same.  Invest 29 cents in your nation's future.
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: janm@syma.sussex.ac.uk (Jan Metzger)
Subject: Artifical Intellegence
Keywords: computers
Organization: University of Sussex
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1993 17:07:27 GMT

I am interested in any work being done were Artifical Intellegence and
economics are combined.  I would be extremely gratefull if you could tell me
about any work that you know is being done and how I can obtain information
about it.

Thank you,

Jan Metzger

University of Sussex

janm@uk.ac.susx.syma
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: cmk@athena.mit.edu (Charles M Kozierok)
Subject: Re: Surviving Hyper-Inflation
Organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Distribution: usa
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 15:32:08 GMT

In article <1993Jan12.013500.5339@adobe.com> hamachi@adobe.com (Gordon Hamachi) writes:
>Gordon Hamachi writes
>> I read the book and it scares the hell out of me.

same here.

>
>Figgie's "Bankruptcy 1995" still scares the hell out of me, but for an  
>alternative view, see Business Week, January 11, 1993, p. 14.
>
>The reviewer says:
>
>        His predictions of economic ruin are, frankly, silly.  If the deficit
>    goes unchecked, he anticipates a currency collapse, widespread bank
>    failures, massive layoffs, cuts in Social Security benefits, and
>    hyperinflation.

i'll have to read the article. but on the surface, having somebody
in a big mag like BW say "p'shah" is hardly surprising.
>
>        I would like to make Figgie a little wager.  I will bet him a year's
>    pay that by 1995, the annual deficit will still be in the neighborhood of
                                               ^^^^^

still? it was over $250B in '91, and will be over $300B in '92.

>    $150 billion to $200 billion, and even so, our currency will be strong,
>    inflation will be quite modest, and the U.S. economy will be, overall,
>    healthier than it is today.

Gordon -- does the reviewer actually have anything to back up his claims?
if the above are the highlights of the article, it suggests not. does
he explain why Figgie's claims are "silly" or why he is making his
"wager"?

--
charles
From: bgoffe@seq.uncwil.edu (Bill Goffe)
Subject: Re: GDP and GNP 
Organization: Univ. of North Carolina @ Wilmington
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 22:37:58 GMT

beers@theory.TC.Cornell.EDU (Jim Beers) writes:

>I have an elementary question, 

>What is the difference between GDP and GNP?
>Why is everyone talking about GDP these days, rather then GNP.

GDP is the value of all output in a country (even if it is produced
by a foreign firm in the U.S., say), while GNP (for the U.S.) is the
value of output by U.S. firms. Thus, it includes output by U.S. firms 
outside the U.S. and does not include output by non-U.S. firms in the
U.S. Thus, GDP better measures what is happening in the U.S.

The change from GNP to GNP just recently occured in the U.S. I could
be wrong here, but I think that the U.S. is among the last to do so.
GDP if pretty much used around the world.

Bill Goffe
From: Hal.Varian@umich.edu
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: Declining Intro Enrolments
Date: 12 Jan 1993 14:35:54 GMT
Organization: University of Michigan - College of Literature, Science, and TheArts
Distribution: world
Reply-To: Hal.Varian@umich.edu
NNTP-Posting-Host: alfred.econ.lsa.umich.edu

In article <DDFr-110193133204@law-mac-3.uchicago.edu> DDFr@Midway.UChicago.Edu  
(David Friedman) writes:

> In article <1hl507INNoaq@terminator.rs.itd.umich.edu>, Hal.Varian@umich.edu
> discusses his views on teaching economics in the context of his textbook
> and classes. 

> One of the problems in teaching economics is that the students think they
> already know it. The subject is all around them, and many of our technical
> terms are words, such as "efficiency," whose meaning they think they know.
> So a student goes along for a month "translating" the logical structure he
> is being taught into a much fuzzier form along the lines of what he already
> knows and only discovers that he is missing something when he fails the
> midterm.

 > One solution to this I like is to get strongly counterintuitive results.
> When you reach a conclusion the student knows is wrong (one of my favorites
> is the argument showing that legalized polygeny benefits women but not
> necessarily men, and vice versa for legalized polyandry) he suddenly has to
> pay attention.

This is a very good idea; I do it too.  On page 11 of my undergrad text I argue  
that turning 100 apartments into 100 condominiums has no effect on the rent
for the remaining apartments.  Most students find this surprising.  There are  
many, many more examples like this in my book.  (And in David Friedman's book,  
too, I hasten to add.) 
 
> So far as computer programs, I think it is possible to do much more than
> automated testing. 

I also agree strongly.  I've been doing a lot with symbolic math packages  
lately.  For example, I wrote 25 Mathematica Notebooks to accompany my graduate  
textbook which are posted on MathSource.  [To use MathSource, send e-mail to
mathsource@wri.com with the message "help intro".  You might also send another
e-mail with the line "find economics" to find the Notebook I posted.]
I also have edited a book called "Economic and Financial Modeling with
Mathematica", TELOS/Springer-Verlag, 1993, ISBN 0-387-97882-8. This book  
contains a lot of research-oriented examples that are, I think, very  
stimulating.

These are example of the use of computers at the graduate and postgraduate  
level.  But I think that there are many promising applications at the undergrad  
level as well.  For example, I'm now translating several workbook problems into  
Mathematica format and I'm going to try using these in the classroom next time  
I teach the course.
--
Hal.Varian@umich.edu    Hal Varian
voice: 313-764-2364     Dept of Economics
fax:   313-764-2364     Univ of Michigan
                        Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: whg@inel.gov (Bill Gray)
Subject: Re: "Death of America"
Organization: Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 93 01:06:30 GMT

In article <thompson.726422768@daphne.socsci.umn.edu>, thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu (T. Scott Thompson) writes:
|> kwee@oracle.uucp (Karl Wee) writes:
|> 
|> >I didn't mean to say your analysis is invalid.  I meant to say that discussing
|> >narrow escape scenarios when everything is about to collapse and when there's
|> >still time to save ourselves in a more certain fashion is a little irrelevant.
|> 
|> What is the "scientific" basis for the hypothesis that "everything is
|> about to collapse"?  Is there a "scientifically" rigorous basis for
|> your concern, or is this merely a linear extrapolation of current
|> trends?
|> ...

I have it on very good authority (Yogi Berra,  no less) that "prediction is
hard,  especially when it's about the future."  Computer scientists have less
excuse than Economists.  How often do programming projects,  which are by
definition of finite compass,  and ususally of bounded complexity utterly
fail to work out as predicted?   We computer nerds should be humble in the
face of the predictive power of Economics.

========== long legal disclaimer follows, press n to skip ===========

Neither the United States Government or the Idaho National Engineering
Laboratory or any of their employees, makes any warranty, whatsoever,
implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility regarding any
information, disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe
privately owned rights.  No specific reference constitutes or implies
endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States
Government or the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory.  The views and
opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the
United States Government or the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory,
and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: rja@mahogany126.cray.com (Russ Anderson)
Subject: Re: Inflation
Originator: rja@mahogany126
Organization: The 1991 World Champion Minnesota Twins!
Date: 6 Jan 93 13:40:27 CST


In article <1id49fINNsok@darkstar.UCSC.EDU>, david@cats.ucsc.edu (David Wright) writes:
> In article <1993Jan5.152354.16686@hemlock.cray.com> rja@mahogany126.cray.com (Russ Anderson) writes:
> |In article <38124@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu|, jfh@beach.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky) writes:
> 
> |From "Free to Choose" by Milton & Rose Friedman, p257:
> |
> |  You can see why John Maynard Keynes, in discussing the inflations after
> |  World War I, wrote: "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning 
> |  the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.  The process
> |  engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction,
> |  and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
> |  (John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace",(1920) p 236)
> |
> || I personally prefer the Austrian school of Economics as espoused by
> || von Mises, von Hayek, Henry Hazlitt, Murray Rothbard, George Reisman,
> || etc.
> |
> |I don't see how their views differ with Keynes.  Could you elaborate?
> 
> Keynes would later recant his conventional views of economics that
> appear in his earlier works.

"recant"?  Please provide a quote or reference of Keynes recanting his 
earlier works (esp re inflation).

>                               Worse yet, what has come to be thought of
> as Keynesianism is a total disregard to inflation and believing in a
> inflation/unemployment tradeoff: that is, you can get permanent rising
> output from inflating the money supply and rising prices.

1) I hope we agree that Keynes did not believe in "a total disregard to 
   inflation [... and] permanent rising  output from inflating the money 
   supply and rising prices."

2) While there are certainly many distortions of Keynes views (by both
   those that agree and disagree with "Keynesianism"), I hope that in
   this forum we deal with Keynes actual beliefs instead of perpetuating 
   the distortions of his beliefs.

-- 
Russ Anderson    |  Disclaimer: Any statements are my own and do not reflect
------------------              upon my employer or anyone else.  (c) 1992
EX-Twins' Jack Morris, 10 innings pitched, 0 runs (World Series MVP!)
From: yodaiken@chelm.cs.umass.edu (victor yodaiken)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: GM Plant Closures and Economic Problems
Date: 9 Jan 93 17:19:21 GMT
Organization: University of Massachusetts, Amherst

In article <38173@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu> jfh@beach.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky) writes:
>In article <58128@dime.cs.umass.edu> yodaiken@chelm.cs.umass.edu (victor yodaiken) writes:
>
>>>Let's here it for the Fed--our dollar has lost >95% of its purchasing
>>>power since then. Hooray.
>>
>>How do you account for the numerous boom/bust cycles that predated
>>the Federal reserve?
>>
>
>You can attribute these to the National Banking Act of 1860. This 
>legislation centralized reserves in a few banks in NYC, creating a 
>quasi-central bank. These banks could then influence the money supply
>much greater than would have been possible had true free competition 
>had been in place.

Well, it sounds like your golden era of the stable dollar was a mighty
short time -- a couple of years from the end of the eighteenth century and
then up to 1860, minus, I suppose the years when the economy was affected
by such government actions as the MExican war or the Lousiana purchase.

>I believe one of the most stable banking experiments in history was
>the Scottish free banking system--there were no legal tender laws, no
>reserve requirements, no government monopoly on the money supply.
>A very sound banking system was established, much to the envy of the
>neighboring British, and it was based on a de facto gold standard. It 
>finally crumbled after legislation was passed regulating the industry,
>I believe.

Was Scotland an independent nation at the time of this experiment?
I doubt it.

Why do I get the feeling that yoou have already made up your mind about
what works and what doesn't and are just snatching random historical
straws to keep your theory afloat?

-- 


yodaiken@chelm.cs.umass.edu

Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: ai428@yfn.ysu.edu (Daniel Schiffer)
Subject: Beta/Volitility
Organization: Youngstown State University/Youngstown Free-Net
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 01:50:37 GMT


Does any one no a formaula that can be used to derive volitility, as used
in a Black-Sholes formula from the beta of a stock?
Dan Schiffer
From: mkohlhaa@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (mike)
Subject: Re: Surviving Hyper-Inflation
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 20:11:15 GMT

In article <1993Jan7.155202.28783@Arco.COM> dprjdg@inetg1.ARCO.COM (John Grasham) writes:

[Stuff deleted]

>I myself am more interested in how to survive personally in a
>hyper-inflationary period.  What to do?  Convert all currency
>and equivalents into (more) stable foreign currencies?  Convert
>currency into hard assets?  What about servicing loans?  Wait
>and pay them off with cheaper dollars?  I would be interested
>in your ideas.  Thanks.
>
>John G.

In some countries of South/Central America where hyper-inflation is a way
of life, residents have developed some pretty interesting strategies to
combat inflation.  Many residents will take any spare money that they have
and immediately buy a couple of clay bricks.  They then take these bricks
home and pile them in their side yard.  When the pile of bricks is 
appropriately large, the owner will build an addition onto his house.

I also recently had an opportunity to talk to a woman from Moscow.  She said
that the Russians are dealing with inflation by using American dollars and/or
Vodka as the prefered method of payment.

I guess that it's important to keep in mind that the whole idea of a currency
is to be more convenient than the barter system.  I suppose that if
a currency system were to explode, the barter system would be a default
replacement.

-- 
					-- Mike
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| If the above information is incorrect, then I don't even speak for myself.  |
|      mkohlhaa@silver.ucs.indiana.edu | mkohlhaa@amber.ucs.indiana.edu       |
Newsgroups: sci.econ
From: canright@convex.com (Robert Canright)
Subject: Re: "Death of America"
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1993 17:27:09 GMT
Organization: Engineering, CONVEX Computer Corp., Richardson, Tx., USA
X-Disclaimer: This message was written by a user at CONVEX Computer
              Corp. The opinions expressed are those of the user and
              not necessarily those of CONVEX.

In <thompson.726422768@daphne.socsci.umn.edu> thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu (T. Scott Thompson) writes:

>>This is the
>>philosophical underpinning of all sciences and engineering.  Unfortunately,
>>economics tends to ignore it.

>I disagree that conservatism is the "philosophical underpinning" of
>all science.  Were Galileo or Copernicus's new models of the solar
>system conservative?  How about Einstein's relativity theories?
>Major advances in science have often occured through radical breaks
>with the accepted wisdom, even when the new ideas went against the
>"common sense" of their time.

Galileo & Copernicus are not representative of average science.  Average
science resists breakthroughs.  This is why Thomas Kuhn wrote "The 
Structure of Scientific Revolutions" back in the 60's.  The buzzword
"paradigm" has infiltrated the business community by way of consultants
& authors, but the basic concepts from Kuhn's book still have a way to go,
based on Thompson's comments.

Disagree with me.  Disagree with the original poster (postee?).  But read
Kuhn and then reconsider your position that science is not a conservative
profession.

You are right that engineers are more conservative than scientists, but I
can add a qualification to that:  Although the average engineer hates new
ideas, he loves new gadgets!  (I classify software as a gadget too.)

Bob Canright