From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 1993 07:00:54 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                25 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 025, 01/25/93
10.7 FLUX=105.8  90-AVG=138        SSN=075      BKI=0013 5443  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=6.5E+05  FLU10=9.5E+03  PKI=1123 6443  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=004,004,009,026,098,055,046,026   DEV-AVG=033 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.6   @ 0746UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 1901UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1400UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2330UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2355UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55418NT @ 1120UT   BOUTF-MIN=55371NT @ 1943UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1949UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-025NT@ 1341UT  G7-AVG=+084,+024,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+153NT@ 1726UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-016NT@ 1951UT  G6-AVG=+104,-002,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,110;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/025,020,015
    KFCST=3335 6333 3335 6333  27DAY-AP=029,042   27DAY-KP=2032 5555 5565 5533
 WARNINGS=*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7408 (N10W76)
       produced a few optical subflares but all of them had x-ray
       output which was less than C level. Other regions were quiet.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet until about 25/1030Z. At that
       time the field gradually became disturbed with active to storm
       conditions observed at all locations. Severe storm conditions
       occurred at some high latitude stations from 25/1200-1500Z.
       The source of this disturbance is not certain although a coronal
       hole is a likely candidate.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active throughout the forecast
       period. Isolated storm conditions are possible.

            A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch is being issued
       for the next 48 to 72 hours (through 19Z on 27 January
       inclusive).  The anticipated coronal disturbance could elevate
       levels of auroral activity sufficiently to be observed over
       some middle latitude locations.  Areas north of the U.S./Canada
       border are more likely to observe this activity than parts
       further south.  Lunar phase will not significantly inhibit
       attempts to view this activity.

            Event probabilities 26 jan-28 jan

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 jan-28 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/45/30
                        Minor Storm           30/25/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/25/30
                        Minor Storm           45/45/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    30/20/15

            HF propagation destabilized over most regions during the
       last 24 hours.  All regions except the lower latitudes have
       experienced periods of below normal propagation.  Lower
       latitudes have seen near-normal propagation throughout the
       period.  Conditions are expected to deteriorate further over
       the next 24 hours, with a very gradual improvement expected
       thereafter for the next several days.  Night-sector propagation
       is expected to be least-stable with possibly frequent periods
       of fading, absorption, and multipath activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7403  N14W63  358  0140 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7406  S15W11  306  0060 CSO  05  004 BETA
7407  S07E20  275  0020 HRX  01  003 ALPHA
7408  N10W76  011  0010 BXO  04  002 BETA
7409  N17W23  318  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7410  S20W15  310  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7401  S11W83  018                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 JANUARY TO 28 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7386 S05   183
7394 S16   178


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
82   S35W31 S39W33 S02W59 S02W59  348  ISO   POS   018 10830A
83   N26W09 N01W21 N22W48 N37W28  333  ISO   POS   025 10830A
84   S35E39 S40E37 S29E05 S25E26  284  ISO   NEG   015 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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