From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1993 07:01:01 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                26 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 026, 01/26/93
10.7 FLUX=106.5  90-AVG=137        SSN=060      BKI=4444 4332  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=4444 4332  PAI=019
  BOU-DEV=055,046,068,057,050,031,021,015   DEV-AVG=042 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.7   @ 2348UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.6   @ 0415UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.7
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2000UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +2.3DB @ 1755UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0845UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55419NT @ 0329UT   BOUTF-MIN=55387NT @ 1959UT  BOUTF-AVG=55405NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+100NT@ 2036UT   GOES7-MIN=E:-034NT@ 0119UT  G7-AVG=+064,+030,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1647UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-009NT@ 0116UT  G6-AVG=+080,+007,+046
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,115,120;SESC:110,115,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,015,015
    KFCST=3335 6222 2222 4522  27DAY-AP=042,010   27DAY-KP=5565 5533 2323 3211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred
       during the past day. A fifteen degree section of filament,
       centered near S45W00, disappeared sometime between 25/2300Z
       and 26/1100Z. This eruption was not observed optically.
       Operators of the Yohkoh soft x-ray telescope report a possible
       post-eruption signature of bright cusp-shaped structures.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low. A general trend towards increased activity is expected
       over the next few days as new regions rotate into view at the
       southeast limb.

            The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at middle
       latitudes and active to storm at high latitudes. The most
       disturbed periods occurred from 26/0900-1500Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 27 jan-29 jan

                             Class M    01/01/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 jan-29 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/40/35
                        Minor Storm           20/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/15
                        Minor Storm           45/35/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/20

            HF propagation conditions began the day below normal over
       the polar, high, and upper middle latitudes due to enhanced
       levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  The lower middle
       and low latitude paths remained near-normal throughout the
       period.  Conditions are expected to slowly improve over the
       next 72 hours to near-normal.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7403  N15W76  358  0150 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7406  S13W26  308  0070 CSO  06  003 BETA
7407  S07E07  275  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7408  N09W91  013  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7409  N18W35  317  0010 BXO  05  003 BETA
7410  S20W28  310                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 JANUARY TO 29 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7386 S05   183
7394 S16   178


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
26/B1136             A1421       N02E27   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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