From: banarji@unixg.ubc.ca (Ajai Banarji)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.indian
Subject: India's place in the world economy
Date: 25 Dec 1992 02:20:22 GMT
Organization: University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada
Distribution: na
NNTP-Posting-Host: unixg.ubc.ca

		India's place in the world economy

  With all this talk of India becoming another "Tiger", it is worth looking
at India's present position in the world economy.
  The figures below are taken from the December "Report on Business" published
by the Globe & Mail with inputs from the Economist. It presumably takes
into account recent changes, particularly in the Soviet bloc countries.
  Below is a list of all countries with a Gross Domestic Product of over
US$100 billion. It is arranged in descending order of GDP. Population and
per capita GDP are also given.

Rank	Country		  GDP	  Population     Per capita GDP
			(billion   (million)       (USD)
			  USD)

 1	USA		5670		251		22520
 2	Japan		4000		125		32018
 3	Germany		1950		 80		24120
 4	France		1360		 56		23900
 5	Italy		1170		 60		20200
 6	UK		1000		 57		17300
 7	Canada		 588		 27		21710
 8	Spain		 540		 40		13000
 9	China		 475	       1190		  399
10	Brazil		 393		159		 2466
11	Mexico		 382		 91		 4186
12	South Korea	 354		 44		 8040
13	Netherlands	 330		 15		21400
14	Australia	 308		 17		17320
15	Argentina	 273		 33		 8142
16	Sweden		 260		  8		29600
17	Taiwan		 241		 21		11500
18 --> 	India		 236		878		  269
19	Belgium		 225		 10		22600
20	Austria		 190		  7		23800
21	Denmark		 145		  5		28200
22	Indonesia	 140		189		  740
23	Russia		 137		149		  929
24	South Africa	 123		 37		 3312
25	Saudi Arabia	 122		 16		 7463
26	Norway		 120		  4		28200
27	Hong Kong	 111		  5		18800
28	Finland		 105		  5		21000

  As you can see, India has the 18th largest economy sandwiched in between
Taiwan and Belgium. India has the second highest population and the lowest
per capita GDP.
  Interestingly, Russia now has a GDP much lower than India's.
  This survey did not cover our neighbours. From other sources I saw that
Pakistan's GDP is around 40 billion, Bangladesh around 20 while Nepal and
Sri Lanka are around 5-10.		
  If India's per capita GDP rose to the same level as China, the GDP
would be about 350 billion (similar to South Korea). If it came up to
Indonesia's level it would be about 650 billion (and we could replace
Canada in the G-7 :-)
  However, the recent political developments seem to have ensured that
for all practical purposes there will be no major changes in the economy.
  Forget foreign investment-who will invest in a country where large-scale
violence can start any time. (No American or Japanese or European investor willbe interested in hearing your long explanations about how important it was to  demolish the Babri Masjid. He will just throw his files on India into the
waste-paper basket and never look there again.) 
  Forget about scrapping the inefficient public sector-the government's new 
allies the Left Front will never allow it. (Particularly as many of the doomed enterprises are in Bengal while others have strong leftist unions.) 
  Forget the economy altogether as the BJP will see to it that all the         government's attention will be concentrated on mandirs and masjids.
  Finally, the bureaucracy, which was dreading the liberalization of the
economy because of its loss of importance, will succeed in doing its best to   stall any further reforms the government wants to implement. 
  And the traditional big businessmen don't want liberalization either, since  they will have to start doing some work instead of relying on manipulation of  licences and permits. 
  It is clear that the three pillars of the ruling elite (the netas, the babus
and the banias) are all happy to see that no further economic liberalization 
takes place. So everyone is happy to let things continue as before.
  Goodbye, Manmohan Singh. Goodbye, reforms.