From: barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us (Mr Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS: ZIMBABWE: BUSINESS WARY OF EARLY TR
Originator: barnhart@gagme
Organization: Evanston, Illinois
Date: Fri, 28 Aug 1992 22:55:30 GMT

Area: Latin America
Reference: Trade & Finance; Disarmament & Peace
Title: ZIMBABWE: BUSINESS WARY OF EARLY TROOP PULLOUT FROM MOZAMBIQUE


an inter press service feature

by jide adebayo

harare, aug 21 (ips)-- zimbabwean business friday welcomed the
dawning of peace in mozambique but are wary of a quick
withdrawal of an estimated 12,000 zimbabwean troops currently
guarding trade routes in the neighbouring country.

''most traders want the army to stay. the (rome) peace
accords will simply not bring about what some people hope for'',
john deary, past president of the confederation of zimbabwe
industries (czi) told ips.

deary is a top executive of london-based conglomerate
lohnrho, whose chief executive 'tiny' rowlands has been
intimately involved in the mozambican peace talks earlier this
month.

''as long as people in mozambique are displaced and
unemployed, i have a feeling we could be in for some very
difficult times ahead'', deary added.

he anticipated sporadic bandit attacks until the population
was disarmed and arms caches unearthed.

described by the world bank as one of the world's poorest
nations, six million of mozambique's 15.7 million people have
beeen displaced by the 17-year-old civil war.

but a more optimistic david zausmer, managing director of the
beira corridor group (bcg), cited a surge in both local and
international business confidence as a likely immediate windfall
from a ceasefire in mozambique.

massive premium insurance rates currently demanded by traders
in london and elsewhere for shipping through war-torn mozambique
would fall, he said.

''this will aggregate into greater national savings for the
country'', said zausmer whose bcg is an organisation of
zimbabwean businessmen monitoring regional transport links.

beira, some 600 kilometres from land-locked zimbabwe is the
country's gate-way to sea. its increased utilisation, including
goods train shuttles at night into the interior, currently
restricted to daylight operations, would generate greater
capital for the region. (more/ips)


zimbabwe: businessmen (2)

at present, risk averse business people prefer the more
distant, 2,000 km route to the south african port of durban,
weighing down heavily the competitiveness of zimbabwean exports.

zimbabwean president robert mugabe, a key mediator at the
peace talks between mozambican president joachim chissano and
rebel leader afonso dhlakama in rome has already hinted at a
troop pull-out, but has provided no date.

''the ceasefire agreement will offer us an opportunity of
reviewing the deployment of our troops along the beira and
limpopo corridors'', mugabe told a defence forces day
celebration last week.

zimbabwean troops first moved into mozambique in the early
1980s for joint military operations with mozambican government
troops against the rebels of the mozambique national resistance
(renamo).

apart from the the strategic transport considerations, and
the threat of a hostile renamo in power across the border, close
ties exist between mugabe's ruling party and the mozambican
government which hosted his wing of the liberation movement
throughout the 1970s until zimbabwean independence in 1980.

last year, the zimbabwean troops were confined to the rail
and road trade route -- beira and limpopo corridors -- after the
signing of a partial ceasefire agreement. international monitors
have been stationed in mozambique to verify compliance by both
renamo and the zimbabwean troops.

but the defence costs incured in mozambique, estimated at
more than one million dollars a day, has sparked controversy
particularly now that the country has embarked on a world bank
and international monetary fund sponsored economic structural
adjustment programme.

the harare-based southern african research and documentation
centre (sadrc) has estimated the bill for the mozambique
operation to have reached 1.8 billion dollars between 1982 and
1989.

opposition groups and some ruling party backbenchers have
repeatedly called for the troops to be pulled out, describing it
as an unnecessary burden on the taxpayers.

mugabe said as much when he told the defence forces
celebrations that the deployment was ''a large drain on our
national resources, particularly at a time we are restructuring
our economy to make it more productive and raise the standard of
living of our people''.

but if peace remains elusive in mozambique, the strategic
consideration of access to the sea, may force zimbabwe to
reconsider its military withdrawl. (end/ips/ja/oa/92)




-- 
Mr. Aaron Barnhart@gagme.chi.il.us -- posting from Evanston, Illinois
Newsgroups: soc.culture.african,sanet.talk.politics,apc.reg.safrica