From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 16 Nov 1992 09:08:21 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 320, 11/15/92
10.7 FLUX=127    90-AVG=124        SSN=113      BKI=2211 4333  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B4.6     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3222 4433  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=015,016,008,007,042,031,021,034   DEV-AVG=021 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.5   @ 0846UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.1   @ 0019UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1615UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1410UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1610UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1515UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 0538UT   BOUTF-MIN=55392NT @ 1950UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1909UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 2359UT  G7-AVG=+075,+028,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1909UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-027NT@ 0535UT  G6-AVG=+093,-009,+025
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,140;SESC:130,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=011,009   27DAY-KP=4222 3322 4311 2212
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Several small C-class
       flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The largest was a C5
       at 15/0846Z. None of these flares were observed optically. Plage
       at the east limb is preceding the return of Region 7321 (S25,
       l-70). So far, this returning area is less active than when it
       left two weeks ago. New Region 7344 (S14E68) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Activity may increase with the return of Region 7321.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at most locations.
       Active to storm conditions were observed from 15/1200-2100Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 16 nov-18 nov

                             Class M    10/20/40
                             Class X    01/01/05
                             Proton     01/01/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 nov-18 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/30
                        Minor Storm           20/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude regions today, and slightly below normal
       over the high and polar latitudes.  Enhanced levels of
       geomagnetic activity between 12:00 UT and approximately 18:00
       UT degraded propagation over the high and polar latitude paths.
       Increased fading and multipathing accompanied this activity.
       Minor improvement was noted by the end of the UT day.
       Conditions should be near-normal over all regions for the next
       72 hours (through 18 November inclusive).  The possibility for
       SWF activity over daylit paths will increase as old Region 7321
       returns to the east limb.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7334  N13W64  214  0050 CSO  08  003 BETA
7335  S18W54  204  0350 EHO  13  005 BETA
7337  N08E14  136  0080 HAX  04  006 ALPHA
7339  S18W29  179  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7340  S08E46  104  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7341  S16W11  161  0010 BXO  05  007 BETA
7342  S07E22  128  0010 BXO  05  006 BETA
7344  S14E68  082  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7338  N05W79  229                    PLAGE
7343  N11E38  112                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 NOVEMBER TO 18 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7321 S25   070
7319 S11   047


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
67   N40W23 N30W28 N40W48 N47W33  196  ISO   POS   006 10830A
68   N10E57 S10E37 N00E27 N20E57  115  ISO   POS   012 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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