From: Andrew.Probert@f20.n772.z3.fidonet.org (Andrew Probert)
Newsgroups: k12.ed.business
Subject: Educational finance
Date: Sat, 02 Jan 93 01:02:06 PDT
Organization: FidoNet node 3:772/20 - IBM NZ Ltd Gate, Auckland

Hi, again, Paul. This message is of interest. I am afraid I really am
rather ignorant of how futures exchanges work. However they look
fascinating ( as long as you don't have toomuch to lose on them). Do you
specialise in the analysis of the impact of the world economy on the
futures exchanges around the world?

Also you said

CH=8>      The relative weakness of Taiwan's equity market reflects the
CH=8>      uncertainty of the outcome of the legislative elections in
CH=8>      Taiwan on Saturday. Most of the aging legislators chosen 45
CH=8>      years ago in elections throughout China were forced to retire
CH=8>      last December. The new Legislative Yuan will be younger and
CH=8>      more assertive. It will increase pressure on the executive
CH=8>      branch on various policy issues. Moreover, the ruling
CH=8>      Kuomintang is no longer as unified as it once was. The status
CH=8>      of a strongman leader with a one-party state and a compliant
CH=8>      legislature is at risk.

Do you have any political views on what the Taiwanese governments
policies should  be?   It seems to me that while the government still
claims to be the rightful government for the whole of China, Taiwan is
in grave danger from an expansionist Chinese republic. This is because,
to be safe Taiwan must make it clear in world eyes that it is an
entirely separate country from the Chinese mainland. The attitude of the
Taiwanese government makes it difficulat for foreign powers to give
Taiwan full recognition as a unique state separate from China.
Do you have any business links or family links within southern China?

You also said

CH=8>      Clinton's economic stimulus uncertain
CH=8>      The futures market this week reflects the uncertainty whether
CH=8>      Mr. Bill Clinton will adopt an economic stimulus after he is
CH=8>      inaugurated as the new U.S. president on Jan. 20.

Yes I agree. It looks like Cklinton will be walking a tightrope between
properly restoring the US economy and dealing with the deficit, and
satisfying the wishes of the liberal electorate which constitutes such a
large part of his voting support. This will lead to uncertainty until
Clinton works out exactly what it is he wishes to do and what exactly it
is that he will have to do.

Finally , you said

CH=8>      The U.S.  economy may be expanding modestly, even adding some
CH=8>      jobs by the small and medium-sized companies, but big companies
CH=8>      are continuing to cut.  A survey of more than 800 companies by
CH=8>      the American Management Association found that one in four --
CH=8>      like GM, IBM and Sears, Roebuck & Co.  -- is planning work
CH=8>      force reductions by the middle of 1993.  This is the highest
CH=8>      level since the research group began its survey six years ago.

Yes , these are years of large changes, especially in the computing
industry. One wonders if IBM will be able to make the transition that
will be required if it is to survive. It looks however like Apple is
going down the right road with its PDAs.
I would like to say here that the New Zealand economy is actually
beginning to pick up again, if it is of interest to you. The growth is
occurring especially in the South Island cities, such as Christchurch,
where a number of small innovative businesses have set up shop and are
doing really well. The great Economic Reform that  Roger Douglas
instituted is beginning to bear fruit. The real danger is now that our
present government has become obsessed with tinkering with the economy
to institute rapid and poorly thought out reforms. It has become
politically trendy to be a reformer. This is dangerous, since what the
economy really needs right now is to be left alone. This is what most
businessmen are calling for. The time for rapid reform is over, the
economy should now be left to grow into its new framework. With a little
bit of confidence and no new world economic disasters I reckon that our
economy could really begin to boom in the next few years.

Anyway, I'll be eagerly awaiting your next reply.
Till then,
Bye,
     Andrew
___
 * SLMR 2.0 * We all live in a yellow subroutine.


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