From: cw@orion.uucp (C.W. Chung)
Subject: Re: American Poltices
Organization: Objectivity Inc.
Date: Tue, 25 Aug 92 22:32:14 GMT

    In article <1992Aug24.161125.13955@dsg.tandem.com> leung@DSG.Tandem.COM (Steven Leung) writes:
    >Since the TV has covered both parties' conventions in length, I
    >don't feel guity to chat politics here. Why didn't I do that in
    >soc.culture.usa? Well, because I felt that most of us, when
    >talking about American politics, are probably more concerned
    >about what it means to China, especially about democracy, etc.

    >* The #1 issue is economy. All candidates (from Bush to Clinton
    >  to Perot) say that they know what is the problem and have a
    >  plan to fix it. I don't know much about economy theory, but 
    >  I have fundamental doubts about the implicit assumption that
    >  the national economy is controllable. And even if someone really
    >  understand how the economy works and indeed has a solution,
    >  whether the solution will be accepted (by voters) is still a
    >  problem.

Well put.  I still remember from Economic 101 that there is such thing
called 'Econonmic Cycle'.  Nobody likes to have it, but nobody figure
out a way to get rid of it either.

What makes the matter worse is that there are so many ways the economy
could be measured: e.g. GNP growth, inflation, budget deficit, interest
rate, real interest rate (interest rate - inflation), unemployment, 
discomfort index (unemplyment+inflation), job growth, foreign exchange
strength, government spending, saving rate, tax rate, etc.  Optimizing 
one target often will have detrimental effect on the other target (e.g. 
could push up economy by more government spending at the risk of
increasing the budget deficit and inflation).

So even today when most people would say the economy is in shambles, the
following indicators are good: low interest rate, low inflation,
moderate discomfort index, lower tax rate.  Other indicators range
from medicore to bad: low (but not negative) GNP growth, high unemployment,
low job growth, very weak foreign exchange, still hugh government 
spending.

    >* The president controls the administration and the congress
    >  controls the legislation and they are separate. I felt that
    >  the situation of admin/legislation controlled by different
    >  parties IS the choice of the American people, simply 'coz
    >  they want the govt. spend money (Democrates are good on that)
    >  but don't want to pay for it (Republicans are good on that).
    >  Is there really a solution on this? (Maybe we can get a clue
    >  from the current CA budget crisis.)

People criticised Bush for breaking the 'no new tax' pledge.  Here in
California is a case that the Republican governor who do not want to raise
tax, and the Democrat Congress who do not want to have a deep cut in spending
(especially education).  This would have happen to US Federal Govt if
Bush did not compromise to get the budget passed, and he got flamed
for doing it.  Now Pete Wilson is also getting flamed for not doing it.
(I am glad that I am not in politics :)

Coming from HK and looking at what happen in Mainland, I have a healthy
skeptism towards big government.  We just could put all blame on the
government.  We'll got to put the matter in our own hands and tried
solving it.  Could you blame USGovt for the downfall of GM?  I prayed
not. I think GM has nobody to blame but its inept management. Likewise,
I am not crying for WANG or DEC or PRIME.  They have seen their best
time, and just mismanaged to stay competitive.  For all the noise
about the demise of American industries, there are many of them
staying very compeitive.  Even in California where unemployment is
high, many companies are still hiring.  You just don't hear good news
that often (perhaps the nature of media).

-cw-
_____________________________________________________________________________
C.W.Chung       Objectivity Inc.      Object-Oriented DBMS  Tel: 415/688-8023
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