From: karl@ddsw1.mcs.com (Karl Denninger)
Newsgroups: comp.unix.pc-clone.32bit,biz.sco.general,comp.unix.sys5.r3,comp.unix.sysv386
Subject: Re: PC Unix/Xenix vendors
Date: 24 Jan 93 17:25:24 GMT
Organization: MCSNet, Chicago, IL

In article <ADAMS.93Jan23013219@PDV2.pdv2.fmr.maschinenbau.th-darmstadt.de> adams@pdv2.fmr.maschinenbau.th-darmstadt.de (Adams) writes:
>In article <2B6010B6.14DF3@tct.com> chip@tct.com (Chip Salzenberg) writes:
>
>>   According to karl@ddsw1.mcs.com (Karl Denninger):
>>   >I suspect that the Intel Unix systems may be doomed.
>
>>   Not a chance.  The NT, OS/2, and MS-DOS markets will continue to push
>>   the PC clone architecture QUICKLY toward better bang/buck ratios.  Sun
>>   can't amortize SPARC development costs like the PC clone makers can.
>
>Why? Chip development was done by Cypress, Logitec, TI, NEC or Fujitsu
>[unsure] etc., but outside of SUN. SUN told them just secifications.
>Period.
>
>Indeed SPARC processors do not tend to be more expensive than 486DXs,
> price driven by monopoly of Intel. Have a look at the
>microSPARC by TI, which has a CPU, FPU and all glue logic,
>including DRAM controller and SBUS interface, put on _ONE_ chip.

Correct.  This is the reason I suspect the INTEL architecture is in trouble
over the long run.  Certainly, they have the installed base now.  But these
"installed" systems do not play well together, they're unstable (ask any DOS
user) and to get away from that is just too damn expensive.

The real problem so far has been that to get a "real" computer was a $10k
proposition.  Now, with the Sparc Classic, it isn't any longer.  Consider
that the clone makers will go gunning for Sun's bacon here, and I bet we 
see $2500 Sparc compatibles within 6 months.

Note that the compatibles have <always> come with an operating system too.

Now just HOW is the Intel machine going to compete with <this> in that
marketplace?

Pentium isn't an answer if it is a monopoly chip.  If Intel insists on
having all the marbles they may find themselves with none of them.  Pentium
will be fast, yes.  But a multiprocessor Sparc-based system will be
available by that release date <on your desktop> which will make Pentium
look like small potatoes, and will likely be cheaper as well.  Certainly the
Sparc people can compete price-wise.

That's my prediction for 1993 (if Intel ships in '93 ;-).

As the world goes away from DOS to other choices the chip becomes less
important.  Even NT will (supposedly) run on other platforms.  The <intent>,
if you remember, was to run on the MIPS R4000 (before MIPS got bought; who
knows what SGI will do with this)

>>  and there's no
>>   reason to think it won't continue to do so.
>At least here in Europe, one can prove, that workstations based
>on PC will be tremedously more expensive than one based on SPARC.
>Please glance through ct12/92, ct1/93, ct2/93 and iX1/93
>all published by Heisse Verlag, Hannover, FRG.
>
>Do not forget, that clone makers start to focus on SPARC meanwhile.

They're already doing so in the states, and soon INTEL machines are going to
be at a serious price/performance disadvantage.  Oh certainly, the Sparc 1
processor has terrible integer performance compared to an i486/DX266.  But
the TI Viking does not, and <that> is current technology for the Sparc world!

When it comes to floating point the PC systems just don't stand up against
<any> of the workstation processors.  Ask anyone doing serious engineering 
work.  Their chip of choice right now is the HP PA-RISC "snake" but many of
them will take Sparc10s if they must.

>Window NT is targeted to processors like Mips R3000/R4000 and
>DEC/alpha. Next versions of OS/2 will be based on a mciro kernel,
>and IBM sees OS/2 just as one step into distributed computing (DCE) 
>and propose their PowerRisc therefor.

Which is also too expensive and too unbundled, not to mention that AIX is
too unstable and odd to be a standard.

>All arguments above need not be taken as arguments, though 
>they are too many and too strong hints to ignore.

Yep.

--
Karl Denninger (karl@ddsw1.MCS.COM, <well-connected>!ddsw1!karl)
Data Line: [+1 312 248-0900]
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