From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1992 18:50:40 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                13 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 348, 12/13/92
10.7 FLUX=173    90-AVG=134        SSN=184      BKI=2412 2211  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B6.2     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=2312 2221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=***,***,006,011,010,***,***,006   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.6   @ 0853UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.1   @ 2221UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2315UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1055UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2245UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1425UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1415UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 1909UT  BOUTF-AVG=55411NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1818UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+007NT@ 1245UT  G7-AVG=+095,+027,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1817UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 2359UT  G6-AVG=+113,-005,+036
 FLUXFCST=STD:175,175,175;SESC:175,175,175 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 3322 2223 3222  27DAY-AP=007,006   27DAY-KP=3122 2222 2321 2221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0114-0333UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
       occurred, most of which came from Region 7366 (S12E31). This
       Region showed no significant changes in size or structure. The
       same was true for Region 7362 (S06W36). Bright surging was seen
       on the east limb near S23. The surging extended to .20 radii and
       was probably associated with the return of old Region 7345 which
       produced low to moderate activity during its last rotation. No
       new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7362 and 7366 are expected to produce
       C-class subflares. Both regions also pose a slight threat for
       isolated M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet at middle latitudes. The high
       latitude field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
       with brief intervals of active levels possible early in the
       period.

            Event probabilities 14 dec-16 dec

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 dec-16 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are anticipated for the next three days
       (through 16 December inclusive).  Good to very good propagation
       is expected over the equatorial to middle latitude paths.  High
       and polar latitude paths should see mostly fair to occasionally
       good propagation during this period.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S19W62  203  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7360  S19W22  163  0370 EAO  13  034 BETA
7362  S06W36  177  0530 EKI  11  028 BETA
7363  S08E06  135  0110 DAO  10  013 BETA
7364  N09E03  138  0050 CSO  04  002 BETA
7365  S23W51  192  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7366  S12E32  109  0060 CAO  07  011 BETA
7367  S18W35  176  0010 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7368  S34E51  090  0010 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 DECEMBER TO 16 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1305 1321 1326 7366  S11E38 C2.0  SF    360
 1332 1332 1332                          400


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/ 0808     0853     0938                LDE    C5.6   90


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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