From: marky@engin.umich.edu (Mark Anthony Young)
Subject: Re: I was going to vote yes, BUT NOW ....
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 92 17:49:45 EDT
Organization: University of Michigan Engineering, Ann Arbor

knight@mrco.carleton.ca (Alan Knight) writes:
>In <+N8-tVA@engin.umich.edu> marky@engin.umich.edu (Mark Anthony Young) writes:
>>You're right.  I should learn to take more care how I say things.  I have
>>presented in other postings evidence that leads me to believe that Quebec
>>might well fall to 20% of Canada's population by the middle of the next
>>century.  I actually got a range of estimates from 19.1 to 23.3, with a 
>>median of 20.5 percent.  My calc'ns for 2011 range from 22.7 to 24.6 with 
>>a median of 23.5 percent, so I'm still in the ballpark at 20 years.
>
>How do you get these ranges? What are the different trends you are
>extrapolating. Also, your medians seem to differ significantly from a
>simple average. Is there a reason for that?
>
I've posted these numbers before, but here they are again:

2041 predictions
----------------

Year    BCpct    QCpct
----    -----    -----
1871    28.97    19.30  3
1881    29.63    19.26  2
1891    25.97    20.29  6
1901    22.67    20.96
1911    18.98    22.90
1921    19.11    23.31
1931    18.96    22.62
1941    19.57    21.21
1951    18.50    20.67  7
1961    19.06    19.58  4
1971    17.94    19.09  1
1981    16.31    19.77  5

What we are looking at is the percent each province would have in 2041 if
they (and Canada as a whole) grew at the same rate from 1991-2041 as from
the base year (first column) to 1991.  It's pretty simple-minded, but it
was the best I had.  The numbers at the end are running up from the smallest
to the largest -- the median is the average of 6 and 7 -- 20.48 percent.
The overall average is 20.75 percent.

For comparison, here is the 2011 data (you said you heard 24.3%):

2011 predictions
----------------
Year    BCpct    QCpct
----    -----    -----
1871    17.47    23.19  4
1881    17.65    23.20  5
1891    16.62    23.50  7
1901    15.65    23.67
1911    14.50    24.40
1921    14.54    24.58
1931    14.49    24.28
1941    14.69    23.69
1951    14.35    23.42  6
1961    14.54    22.94  2
1971    14.18    22.69  1
1981    13.63    22.98  3

Qc:  Mean = 23.54,  median = 23.46

And here is the 1941 to 1991 prediction:

1991 predictions
----------------
Year    BCpct    QCpct
----    -----    -----
1871    24.85    22.67
1881    27.13    22.33
1891    22.05    24.08
1901    17.17    25.22
1911    10.89    30.46
1921    10.72    34.09
1931     9.46    35.42

Qc:  Mean = 27.75,  median = 25.22  (actual value = 25.26)
BC:  Mean = 17.47,  median = 17.17  (actual value = 12.02)
(While BC is five points out, its estimates do have a sd of 6.76 --
that's what I meant when I said the Quebec estimate was a fluke.)

>>It's sort of like Russian Roulette:  you've got five empty chambers, so
>>everything will likely be fine; still, there is that one chance in six....
>
> Personally, if the house of commons becomes seriously distorted I
>think Quebec will be under a lot of pressure to give up the 25% limit,
>which it will most likely use as a bargaining chip to get some other
>means of protecting its culture. 

Absolutely.  And what do you suppose it will ask for in return for its
extra twenty seats in the House?  Keep in mind that Ontario, BC and Alberta
will be under-represented by even more than that, so they'll really want
this change.  The "gun-to-their-head" allusion I made above is sounding
more and more apt to me.

> I guess we disagree over whether the possibility of all Canadian
>provinces but Quebec being at ~95% of rep-by-pop in 50 years if some
>projections hold is really comparable to a 1 in 6 chance of shooting
>oneself in the head.  Of course I come from a province which is
>perpetually under-represented anyway.
>
Perpetually under-represented by about two to eight seats.  Not nice, but
not twenty, either.  Under this new deal Ontario stands a not bad chance
of ending up twenty seats short.

...mark young
Xref: sparky soc.culture.canada:7498 can.politics:8433