From: jlohrmann@igc.org
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections
Subject: A Perot Scenario
Date: 21 Jul 92 03:40:00 GMT
Nf-ID: #N:cdp:1640500016:000:5647
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!jlohrmann    Jul 20 20:40:00 1992


From: <jlohrmann>
Subject: A Perot Scenario

From: bjmccall@cco.caltech.edu (Benjamin John McCall)
Subject: Perot: Will he re-enter??

Well, it seems that discussion about Perot is far from over, so I guess
this list shouldn't be dead after all.  The following convinced me to send
out another mailing - it's so bizarre it seems it might be true!

Ben

===========================================================================
From: bruce@pages.com (Bruce Henderson)
Subject: PEROT DROPS OUT, a possible twist
Cc: bwebster@pages.com, wdc@apple.com,


Like most Perot supporters, I am saddened by Mr. Perot's choice not to seek the  
presidency, I am also very puzzled why this most patriotic person would fold  
like a house of cards.  I have been puzziling over motivations, and I think I  
have a story to explain his withdraw and possible re-entry at a later time.   
This story is purely hypothetical, and if this is not the intention of the  
Perot campaign, it could certainly serve as a blueprint for latter re-entry.

Phase 1

When Ross Perot decided to enter the race for the presidency, he touched a  
nerve in the american public.  The ordinary political process involves the  
elite of the two long standing parties choosing a candidate and then attempting  
to wow the American public into backing them.  Instead, Perot challenged the  
public to "force him" to run.  The one thing that americans love is a  
challenge.  So the people got organized and the petitions got signed and Perot  
became a overnight sensation.  Not because he was he ran slick adds, but  
because his entire campaign was billed as "the will of the people".  As any  
advertiser can tell you, the most powerful sales tool is word of mouth.  If you  
can get people to sell their friends on an idea, it can spread like wildfire,  
which is precisely the Perot phenomenon.  So in the early days, his popularity  
skyrocketed, not because he addressed the issues that the media thought that he  
should, but because he had mobilized the will of a small but significant  
fraction of the American people.  His entire campaign revolved around highly  
dedicated and highly motivated volunteers who were almost fanatical in their  
devotion to Perot and his bid for the White House.  These are what are often  
referred to by the media as the "Core" Perot supporters.

Phase 2

Ross Perot decides that the American people (or at least 33%+) want him to run.   
So he decides to pull out all the stops and organize a real campaign.  He hires  
Ed Rollins and Hamilton Jordan (SP?) in a political coup de etat.  These two  
men are seasoned professionals, with a long and glorious history of political  
campaigning.  The face of the Perot campaign begins to change.  He is now on  
the fall ballot on at least 1/2 the states in the union.  Advertising  
consultants are retained and a series of professional looking, political  
looking ads are created.  The Dallas headquarters begins replacing volunteers  
in key positions with professional political personnel.  This alienates some of  
Perot's "Core" supporters.  About this time the press and the Republican begin  
the personal attacks on Mr, Perot.  Ross Perot is a very private man, not used  
to the ugly mud slinging that is common on the campaign train, and the personal  
anguish he must have felt over this is probably great.

His popularity is declining in the polls, as opposition research begins to  
succeed in re-defining his character to the American people.  


About this time, Perot decides that his campaign is beginning to turn into its  
own political machine, and that it is becoming that which he is against.  As he  
attempts to keep the feel of the campaign very much "from the will of the  
common man", he causes friction with his two managers, who want to run a  
professional campaign.  Over frustration, Ed Rollins resigns.

Phase 3.

Put yourself in Ross Perot's place.
=======================================================
Your liabilities:
You have alienated the base of your support.
You are the target of constant attack.
The Democrats appear to be getting their act together, using many of the ideas  
that you first raised

Your assets:
You have an army in the millions of loyal supporters, some of whom seem to buy  
the Democratic window dressing at the convention.
=======================================================

Right now you army is no longer challenged.  They have done their job by  
getting you on the ballot and they have nothing to do.  No longer united by a  
common cause and a clear task at hand, many are wondering if Perot is really  
the right choice.

An idle army is a terrible thing.

If you stay in the race, you continue to get knocked about, and you will  
probably never be able to get elected.

But what happens if you withdraw:
You might just be able to get back on track, here's how:
If you withdraw, you buy yourself the time to get your positions together  
without having to doge pots shots by the press and the other parts.  As a  
matter of fact, the other parties will start praising you in an attempt to win  
your supporters over to their ticket.

Give the American public time to look at Clinton and Bush again, let the get  
fed up and disgusted again.  When they give up, they will say "crap! we need an  
outsider, we need Ross Perot!".  Once again you will see a ground swell (maybe  
sometime in September) to bring Ross Perot into the campaign whether he like it  
or not.  But this time he will have prepared himself top do battle while the  
heat is off.

Perhaps Ross is only trying to buy us a little time.

Bruce
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections