From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 August
Date: 14 Aug 92 04:22:18 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               13 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 226, 08/13/92
10.7 FLUX=128.9  90-AVG=125        SSN=079      BKI=0111 1422  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=7.4E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2122 3333  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=002,005,008,009,008,044,010,017   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 0417UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.2   @ 1559UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.1
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1725UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0135UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1515UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2340UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55269NT @ 2356UT   BOUTF-MIN=55214NT @ 1734UT  BOUTF-AVG=55247NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1925UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 1330UT  G7-AVG=+080,+037,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1925UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-008NT@ 0732UT  G6-AVG=+091,+004,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,110;SESC:115,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=3332 2222 3332 2222  27DAY-AP=008,005   27DAY-KP=3301 2222 1211 1221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0103-0718UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.  Very little C-class
activity was observed.  The largest flare of the day was a class C1.6 event
at 04:17 UT.  An optically uncorrelated, long-duration C1.5 x-ray flare was
observed at 08:05 UT.  This event had the highest integrated x-ray flux of
the flares observed.

     Region 7260 (N16E52) remained fairly stable in size and structure today.
It is presently 920 millionths in size in an EKI optical configuration.
Magnetic analysis shows a possible weak delta configuration in the central
area of this spot complex.  Perhaps more significantly is an area of modest
shear near a kink in the U-shaped neutral line just to the east of the large
leader spot, which becomes north-south in direction on the eastern side of
the large leader spot.  Line-of-sight magnetic gradients are strongest near
the north-south oriented neutral line.  This region is capable of isolated
M-class flares.

     Region 7248 (S13W76) is approaching the east limb in a fairly dormant
state.  Occasional C-class flare activity is expected from this group.  A
slight chance also exists for an isolated M-class flare.

     Filament disappearances were noted on the east limb near S41 and S35
between 02:08 UT on 12 August and 15:02 UT on 13 August.

     Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.  Region 7260 is the
primary region of interest and is M-class capable.

     The geomagnetic field was generally quiet until 15:15 UT when a sudden
magnetic impulse was observed over some ground-based stations.  The SI was
well defined by geosynchronous magnetometers.  Conditions became mostly
unsettled over the middle latitudes with periods of active to minor storming
between 13:00 UT and 17:00 UT.  The field is expected to be mostly unsettled
over the next 24 hours with a few active periods possible over the higher
latitude regions.  Generally quiet conditions are expected on 15 and 16
August.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  No
significant changes are expected.  High latitude signal paths may see
occasional minor signal degradation during the local night and early morning
hours on 14 August.  Middle and low latitude signal paths should see
near-normal propagation throughout the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7248  S13W76  027  0330 DKO  08  009 BETA
7256  S16W00  311  0060 DSO  06  009 BETA
7260  N16E52  259  0920 EKI  12  016 BETA
7261  S23E04  307  0020 CRO  04  005 BETA
7251  S18W77  028                    PLAGE
7254  N05W65  016                    PLAGE
7255  S10W63  014                    PLAGE
7259  S11W25  336                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 AUGUST TO 16 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7243 N12   215


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0057 0057 0057                          110
 0116 0122 0126 7248  S14W63 B5.8  SF    130
 0206 0206 0206                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
12/A0208           13/B1502     S41E85     DSF
12/A0208           13/B1502     S35E90     DSF
13/ 0630     0805      0849                LDE   C1.5  139


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   N22E34 N08E10 N10E06 N28E30  294  ISO   POS   005   XRAY


**  End of Daily Report  **