From: gdb15@grebe.cl.cam.ac.uk (Guy Barry)
Subject: Re: Northern Ireland
Reply-To: gdb15@cl.cam.ac.uk
Organization: U of Cambridge Computer Lab, UK
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 19:43:52 GMT

In article <92352.1201362893684@QUCDN.QueensU.CA> Andy <2893684@QUCDN.QueensU.CA> writes:
>In article <1992Dec16.093100.24119@dcs.qmw.ac.uk>, mmh@cs.qmw.ac.uk (Matthew
>Huntbach) says:

>>4 out of the 17 constituencies return Nationalist MPs, Newry &
>>Armagh, Down South, Belfast West and Foyle (delicately named to
>>avoid the (London)Derry issue, though the neighbouring
>>constituency covering the county but excluding the city is
>>called Londonderry East, unlike Foyle it's predominantly
>>Protestant). There may be a fifth, but I can't recall it now.

No, you were right to say four.

>>Two other constituencies, Mid-Ulster and Fermanagh & South
>>Tyrone, have Nationalist/Republican majorities, but return
>>Unionist MPs because the Nationalist/Republican vote is split
>>between the SDLP and Sinn Fein parties, whereas the Unionist
>>parties stand a single candidate. 

Small correction: the combined SDLP/Sinn Fein vote in Fermanagh &
South Tyrone was actually slightly *less* than the Unionist vote.
(The UUs got 48.8%, SDLP 23.2%, Sinn Fein 22.9%, and other parties
5.1% between them.)  In Mid-Ulster the SDLP and Sinn Fein together got
nearly half the vote (DUP 42.3%, SDLP 31.0%, Sinn Fein 18.7%, others
7.9%).

>>The British government has
>>introduced proportional representation in district and European
>>Parliament elections to avoid this sort of split and ensure
>>fair representation for all, but wouldn't do this for
>>Westminster elections becuase this might encourage those (like
>>myself) who want to introduce it for all Westminster elections.

I wonder how it manages to get away with having two different
systems for European elections then?

>So four constituencies elect Nationalist MPs and a fifth has a Nationalist/
>Republican majority, meaning less than a third of the province has local
>Nationalist/Republican majorities. Are these areas contiguous with either
>the Sea, the Republic of Ireland or constituencies that meet these two
>conditions and if so, would it not make sense to allow these areas to vote
>on joining the Republic? 

The constituencies of Foyle, Mid-Ulster, Fermanagh & South Tyrone,
Newry & Armagh and Down South are all contiguous with the Republic,
so in theory the boundary could be redrawn to include them.  This is
not possible for Belfast West, which is a Nationalist enclave surrounded
by Unionist-dominated areas.

But I think redrawing the boundary would be a political impossibility;
it would anger not only those Unionists who found themselves joining the
Republic against their will, but also those in the Republican camp
who felt the change didn't go far enough.  If anything it might
intensify the Republicans' resolve to reclaim the rest of Northern Ireland.




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Guy Barry, University of Cambridge | Phone: +44 (0)223 334757 
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