From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1992 23:31:13 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               02 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 276, 10/02/92
10.7 FLUX=119.4  90-AVG=123        SSN=151      BKI=4223 2321  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=5.5E+05  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=3223 3311  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=056,015,014,023,015,027,010,007   DEV-AVG=020 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= M1.4   @ 0751UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 0313UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1900UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2105UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= -0.9DB @ 1700UT     PCA-MIN= -4.1DB @ 0035UT    PCA-AVG= -3.2DB
BOUTF-MAX=55427NT @ 0058UT   BOUTF-MIN=55403NT @ 1726UT  BOUTF-AVG=55419NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+086NT@ 2023UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-012NT@ 0946UT  G7-AVG=+071,+043,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+095NT@ 0752UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-031NT@ 1758UT  G6-AVG=+081,-011,+024
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,130,135;SESC:125,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=3333 3333 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=027,017   27DAY-KP=5554 3234 3442 3233
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH;*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.4/1N@0754UTC,S17E48(7301)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became moderate today.  A single class M1.4/1N flare was
observed in new Region 7301 (S16E38).  This region was also responsible for
three smaller C-class flares.  It may be capable of producing additional
minor M-class flares.

     Three regions were numbered today:  Regions 7301, 7302 (S12E08) and 7303
(S12E47).

     Solar activity will continue low to moderate.  M-class flare activity is
still capable of producing minor M-class flare activity.  Almost all of the
flares from this region have been associated with long-decay x-ray
signatures.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Generally active
conditions were observed over the high latitudes after approximately 12:00
UT.  Similar conditions are expected to persist with mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions for the next 72 hours over the middle latitudes and
occasionally active conditions over the high latitudes.

     HF propagation conditions have been near-normal over the low and middle
latitudes.  High and polar latitude signal paths have seen below-normal
propagation.  Similar conditions should persist for the next 24 hours.  Mild
improvements will be possible on 04 and 05 October.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7293  S07W58  069  0050 CAO  08  004 BETA-GAMMA
7294  S11W33  044  0270 CHO  05  004 BETA
7295  N15W10  021  0120 CSO  11  006 BETA
7296  N06W10  021  0020 CRO  04  006 BETA
7298  N17E22  349  0100 CAO  07  012 BETA
7299  N13E39  332  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7300  N12E63  308  0070 CSO  11  006 BETA
7301  S16E38  333  0040 CSO  05  008 BETA
7302  S12E08  003  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7303  S12E47  324  0000 BXO  05  002 BETA
7292  N20W56  067                    PLAGE
7297  S16W70  081                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 OCTOBER TO 05 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7276 N16   261


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0747 0751 0754 7301  S17E48 M1.4  1N    110 29


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
56   S15W46 S20W50 N03W81 N05W81  083  ISO   POS   015 10830A
58   S18W34 S19W37 S15W41 S14W36  050  ISO   POS   001 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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