From: paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger)
Subject: Re: MLB Standings and Scores for Mon, Jul 27th, 1992
Organization: Computing Services Division, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1992 18:31:01 GMT

In article <1992Jul28.162536.6999@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>In article <Bs3szC.3Ks@undergrad.math.waterloo.edu> djohnson@cayley.uwaterloo.ca (David Johnson) writes:
>>
>>Up here we are not worried about Baltimore.  We think that they will play what
>>they should play over the rest of the season.  About .500.
>
>Hm.  I thought that they were doing a pretty good job of outscoring
>their opponents (despite a stupid lineup).  No?  Do you honestly
>expect that to change?
>
>Their offense is strong, and will be stronger when Hoiles returns and
>Cal starts hitting.  Their pitching (which has been moderately
>dreadful) has been overhauled.  Mussina is great, McDonald is better
>than he looks right now, and Rhodes...  Ah!  He may be the Guzman of
>1992.  Young pitchers don't always pan out, but if you have to bet on
>one, bet on him!  He has always had good K and H/IP numbers, and has
>(hopefully) brought his BB numbers down to an acceptable level.  Their
>bullpen is one of the best in the majors, of course.

  Don't forget about Milwaukee's pen! Orosco and Plesac are decent lefties,
  and Austin and Fetters have been great setup men with 2.52 and 0.72 ERAs
  respectively. Henry with a sub 3.00 ERA and 20 saves is a good closer.


>The pitching may not be as good as the Blue Jays, but the offense is
>IMHO better.  Don't count the O's out yet.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  If so, not much. Any lineup with White, Alomar, Carter, Winfield, Gruber
  (if he ever breaks out of his slump), and Olerud isn't TOO bad.

>>Also if the Jays do what many expected at the beggining
>>of the season (100 wins) no team in the east has a chance.
>
>I'd be willing to bet that they don't!  Besides, if the Dodgers and
>Mets did what "many expected", the NL divisions would be clinched by
>now.
>
>>The Jays are much better than a .592 team.
>
>Hah!  Their offense is only about average, and they need every bit of
>it to cover the runs Morris gives up.  Guzman is great, while Key and
>Wells are quality pitchers.  But the Jays have had serious problems
>finding #4 and #5 starters.
>
>Morris is not going to win 20 games this year.  People say that
>Morris' ERA is deceptive.  I already addressed that question in a
>start-by-start analysis of this season.  He has gotten exceptional run
>support *and* has gotten very lucky.  I also analyzed his career
>through 1991, comparing his ERA, winning percentage, and the average
>offense of the teams he played for.  I found that they were
>essentially perfectly matched.  Over his career, Morris has not had
>more wins than you would expect from his ERA and the offenses behind
>him.  Therefore I expect that in the second half of *this* year, he
>will be a sub-.500 pitcher.

  I always thought that about Morris also, when I just finally realized
  that he's a winner. If Toronto scores 3, he'll give up 2. If they score
  8 he'll give up 7. We've got a guy named Chris Bosio on our team who is
  not a winner (at least not yet). He'll often fold at the end of a close
  game. If Milwaukee scores 4, he gives up 5. If we're shutout, he pitches
  a beautiful three hitter, but one of the hits is a solo shot by Felix
  Fermin in the eighth inning.

>As for Milwaukee?  They have a quality team.  But with so many old
>players, can they hang together down the stretch?  And Eldred simply
>doesn't compare to Rhodes.  I'm not sure how the Brewers have won as
>much as they have.  And I certainly don't see how they are going to
>manage to do any better than they already are.

  It's funny how a team with so many "old" players can by far and away
  lead the AL in stolen bases. I think other than Yount, Molitor and
  Gantner the Brewers are fairly young, and in the cases of Yount and Molitor
  I'm not worried about them falling apart down the stretch. 
  As for the Eldred-Rhodes thing,
  only time will tell, but I think Eldred will do just fine.

  The Brewers are winning because they have a good manager, a good mix of
  veterans, rookies and mid-career players, an excellent baserunning team
  that can manufacture runs, and a solid, improving pitching staff. Overall,
  it's a solid team that has a penchant for winning tight games, a very big
  plus in anyone's book.

  --Salty

>Cheers,
>-Valentine
>-- 
>If Plantier goes, I go!				tedward@cs.cornell.edu