From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1992 00:23:32 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 353, 12/18/92
10.7 FLUX=149.8  90-AVG=136        SSN=157      BKI=2111 1121  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B6.2     FLU1=1.1E+05  FLU10=9.5E+03  PKI=2112 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=012,006,008,009,21057,006,012,21536   DEV-AVG=-2861 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.5   @ 0443UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.8   @ 2224UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0840UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0450UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0905UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1315UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 0318UT   BOUTF-MIN=55398NT @ 1815UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+099NT@ 1849UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0908UT  G7-AVG=+074,+037,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1847UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 0113UT  G6-AVG=+092,-002,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,155,165;SESC:150,155,165 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3443 3334 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=008,014   27DAY-KP=4320 0011 1124 4333
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only a couple of minor,
       uncorrelated C-class events were observed. Regions 7371
       (S09W50) and 7363 (S08W60) saw only a subfaint flare each. All
       regions were stable or decaying slowly. Regions 7373 (N05W06)
       and 7374 (S08E73) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7371 and new Region 7374 have the best potential
       for C-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the first part of the
       forecast period because of a well positioned coronal hole.
       The field is expected to become mostly unsettled by the end
       of the period.

            Event probabilities 19 dec-21 dec

                             Class M    15/20/25
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 dec-21 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/15
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/20/20
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected for the next three days.
       Minor signal instabilities are expected to persist over the
       high and polar latitude paths during the local night sectors.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7360  S17W90  166  0060 CAO  05  003 BETA
7363  S08W60  136  0040 CSO  06  005 BETA
7364  N08W63  139  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7368  S32W15  091  0040 CSO  09  011 BETA
7369  S07E18  058  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7370  S08E27  049  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7371  S10W50  126  0140 DAO  08  016 BETA
7372  S11E59  017  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7373  N05W06  082  0010 BXO  02  003 BETA
7374  S08E73  003  0150 CAO  06  007 BETA
7366  S09W32  108                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 DECEMBER TO 21 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7348 N11   341
7352 N19   341
7350 S20   337
7356 S13   318
7361 S16   308


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
76   S04W17 S05W27 S00W40 N11W23  113  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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