From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Subject: Re: Betting Strategies
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1992 19:28:03 GMT

In article <jason.20@dcs.umd.edu> jason@dcs.umd.edu (Jason Steinhorn) writes:
>
>I have a question concerning optimal vs. non-optimal betting strategies for
>single deck play.  I'll be making my first trip to LV next week, and am quite
>concerned with being marked as a counter due to an optimal betting strategy,
>even if it is only a 1-4 spread.  Will I get the deck cut in half if I try
>playing 1-4 optimal?  Will this generally be noticed quickly?

You can often get away with it.  A good act and a lazy eye in the sky
(or some suboptimal play early on to get yourself "established") would
help a lot.  But I think maybe you are being too paranoid.  If you never
get hit with counter-countermeasures or a barring, you'll never know just
how much you can get away with.  You might go easy on the best casinos,
but show no mercy at places you could care less if you ever returned.

>What about 
>most dealers -- will they take it upon themselves to cut back penetration if
>they spot a counter?

Some dealers, especially FAD's (Female Asian Dealers) cut back on
penetration, some dealers extort for tips in exchange for even better
conditions, some dealers have no chance of even spotting a counter.
For this reason, it is important to shop around for a good dealer.
In general, the dealers are on your side (because they want you to win
so they will get tips), or at least so they say.

>Is it recommended to use any cover betting, or to use
>non-optimal betting -- for example, never more than double your bet after a
>win, or more than decrease by 50% after a loss?

Yes.  However, plunging your bet down to one unit from your max bet is
probably okay.  You'll never see a critter run over to count down
the discards when you do that.

Two cover suggestions:  First, always bet a random amount off the top
(especially in a head-on game where you can afford it).  Second, if
the count goes way up on the first round of a near head-on game while
a critter is watching closely, on *occasion* you might not increase
your bet for the second round (hell, you might want to decrease it).
Or conversely, on occasion you might increase your bet if the count
went down on the first round. Critters aren't very good at counting, but
they can sure tell if the count went up or down on the first round.
I know there are many rec.gamblers who think this is crazy or at least
hypocritical of someone who espouses Kelly criterion mathematical type
stuff.  However, if you can do just one thing to convince them you're
not a counter early on, you'll have heat-free play for the rest of your
session (unless you start making a killing.)  The effect of one
suboptimal bet will be washed out (nearly) by the hundreds of optimal
bets thereafter, and you wouldn't have gotten away with those optimal
bets otherwise.

>How about an optimal 1-3
>spread?  Or 1-2?  Are either of these recommended?

A 1-2 isn't very profitable, but a 1-3 is acceptable.  On the one hand,
tripling your bet is kinda blatent, and you might want to avoid it, but
on the other hand if you don't increase your bet again when the count
keeps going up, you'll really confuse the pit critters (as opposed to
1->2->3 which gives away a lot more information.)  The optimal 1-3
spread actually never bets 2 units for a given true count level, at
least for Hi-Opt I.

>If it means anything, I'm
>playing Uston APC, and plan to play high enough minimums to get head-on and
>two player play...

Well, you've got a great system for that sort of small spread on a near
head-on game, but with a small spread you cannot afford to make mistakes,
and mistakes will be very likely for a Uston APC counter playing single
deck for the first time.

-- 
Michael Hall            \ The Jelly criterion says, to a first approximation,
NASA Ames Research Center\ to spread proportional to your peanut butter and
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \ your bread.  It is the optimal way to make a PBJ.