Organization: Central Michigan University
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.seasia-l
Date:         Thu, 1 Oct 1992 10:23:55 EDT
From:         Elliott Parker <3ZLUFUR@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
Subject:      TH: Chuan Govt: analysis

=======================  Forwarded  Message  ===========================
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 92 01:49:45+0700
From: yongyuth@ipied.tu.ac.th (Yongyuth Pahirah)

Chuan I: An analysis

The Nation Sept 30 edition

  The Chuan I Cabinet faces the unenviable task of projecting a credible image
  of politicians capable of running the show, the Political Desk comments.

  The Chuan I Cabinet, formally appointed yesterday, is ready to run the
  country under a popular prime minister who will adopt a new management style
  of finding consensus in making decision and handling crisis.

  The management style may fit the atmoshere of democracy following a break by
  the Feb 23 military coup last year, the one-year rule by the Anand I
  Cabinet, the tumultunous short spell under former premier Gen Suchinda
  Kraprayoon and a stop-gap period under the Anand II Cabinet.

  But the ``consensus-first approach'' will be put to severe tests by the
  problems left over from the past government, the Executive Decree on Amnesty
  for the May legal offenders and in particular the Anand's executive decree
  to reform the judiciary system.

  The more difficult task for Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai, the first common
man to take the helm after two decades of devoted political career, is how to
handle his own partners in the five-party coalition government, especially the
Palang Dharma Party led by Maj Gen Chamlong Srimuang and the New Aspiration
Party of Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. The two political leaders consider
themselves no less qualified for the top executive post and the election
victory by Chuan's Democrat Party left bitter taste in the ir mouths for what
they could consider to be a  ``stolen victory''.

  The circumstances and Chuan's own personality led to the prediction that the
  management style would be adopted by the prime minister, by nature a
  politically experienced man knowing how to make compromises while not
  failing the public confidence.

  The new government is one of elected politicians, being formed with little,
  if any, influence from the military. The elected ministers are thus tend to
  appease voters and bow under pressure groups.

  Another reason is the mere fact of life that this is a coalition comprising
  five parties and their cohesion would be crucial in keeping the Chuan I
  government in its safe seat.

  The prime minister's ability to resolve conflicts through compromises was
  well proven during the jittery haggling for Cabinet posts among the key
  partners. The clear example is the defence portfolios, which was a major
  bone of contention among the partners. Chuan finally found a ``virtually
  neutral'' professional officer acceptable to New Aspiration and Palang
  Dharma, Gen Vijit Sukmark, appointed ARmed Forces chief of staff for the the
  annual reshuffle effective Oct 1.

  AFter his Cabinet reported to the House of Representatives tomorrow and is
  granted an audience by His Majesty the King for a traditional oath taking
  ceremony Saturday afternoon, the prime minister will have to face off two
  potentially explosive issues, the Executive Decree on Amnesty and the
  Executive Decree on judiciary reforms, which would be taken up in the House
  following the delivery of the government's policy statement, expected next
  Thursday.

  The Executive Decree for a universal amnesty to all involved in the May
  unrest is expected to be rejected by the new House but the amnesty has taken
  effects and cannot be undone. However, legal experts are still divided
  whether the military officers who were purged for their roles in the
  suppression could still face criminal action.

  The results of the official inquiry recently released by the outgoing Anand
  government, however, provided a basis to comfort the prime minister. If the
  matter is revived to bring the ``culprits'' to punishment, then chamlong
  would also be vulnerable to action. The government's report blames both
  sides for the tragedy.

  The tougher challenge is probably the uproar by a powerful faction of
  dissident judges led by Pramarn Chansue against the executive decree which
  upset the balance of power previously in his favour in the former Judiciary
  Commission.

   BEfore the decree was issued, the commission comprised eight elected and
   four who are given the seats for their offices. The composition changed
   drastically to six elected in the expanded body of 28 members.

  The Democrats plan to find a new consensus for a new legislation to govern
  the judiciary branch. But critics fear that any decision will always please
  one side while irking the other.

  A weak point in the Chuan Cabinet is the hold of the justice post by a SAP
  MP, Suwit Khunkitti. Any decision by the Chuan government in favour of one
  particular faction with close links to politicians could come under
  criticism as a move to help clear ``unusually rich politicians'', including
  SAP leader Montri Pongpanitch, from the political stigma put on them as a
  result of the Feb 23 coup.

  The rejection by chamlong of the communications and transport portfolios and
  his decision to ``coach'' the Palang Dharma ministers from outside has also
  touched off speculation that Chamlong would be waiting to rock the boat by
  staging a withdrawal from the coalition if that would win popularity for his
  party.

  But Chamlong's secret weapon is his popularity which declined to a certain
  degree. Such a withdrawal will thus work only if the Chuan government makes
  a blunder that would turn off the public. How much it would work would also
  depend on Chuan's popularity by that time.

  chamlong's decision, however, may not be as deep as it was read by some.
  After all he was trapped by his own pre-election vow not to accet a Cabinet
  post. The move might simply be an act of defending himself from possible
  attacks by political foes.

  A real impact on Chamlong's move to stay outside as the party miniters'
  coach would probably be on the decision making process in the Cabinet if
  Palang Dharma ministers always need greenlight or consensus from their coach
  for their differences to be resolved. This could delay the decision making
  of the Chuan administration.

  After a honeymoon period, NAP leader Gen Chavalit, who is holding the
  powerful post as interior minister, may also be tempted by the prospect of
  breaking away to form a new government with the opposition bloc mainly
  comprising chat Pattana and Chat thai.

  But should he opted for it, he would face a high risks of NAP replaced by an
  opposition party waiting for the windfall and ending up in the opposition
  corner.  Chuan's leverage is stronger than any potential challenger because
  of the Democrat hold of the top legislative post. House speaker Marut
  Bunnag, a Demorat deputy leader, will play crucial roles if a new nomination
  to the prime ministerial post has to be made before the four-year term of
  the house expires.

  For now there is no way of knowing how long the honeymoon period will last
  for much would largely depend on how the prime minister would go about in
  resolving conflicts.

  But the greater responsibility of the new administration and the prime
  minister in particular is not the government's stability. Rather it is the
  public faith in politicians, which would be crucial in deciding whether
  demoracy at work now would be finally established on a firm ground.

  In this context, the Chuan I Cabinet cannot afford to repeat the past
  mistakes made by the Chatichai administration. The public doubts that
  politicians tend to abuse their powers and corrupt must be dispelled.

  The politicians must also show to the public that they place national
  interests over personal and party interests. Reports on the haggling for
  Cabinet posts have already done damage to their image, slight though it may
  seem now.

  The second crucial mission after strengthening stability for the political
  system is for the Chuan government to prove that it can perform well,
  particularly after the impressive achievements left behind by the Anand
  governments.

  One strength of his Cabinet is the ministers' desire to decentralize
  development to the rural areas, bridging the gap between the capital and the
  rest of the country.

  The presence of three former leading bankers, Deputy Prime Minister Amnuay
  Viravan, Deputy Prime Minister Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi and Finance Minister
  Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda is a positive sign of cooperation between elected
  politicians and the private sector to help run the country effectively.
  Former technocrat Dr Savit Bhotiwihok's appointment as PM's Office minister
  also reinforced the positive image.

  But a crucial element of successful policy implementation will be teamwork
  among the economic ministers who come from different places.  chuan's
  ability to understand the complicated economic issues and his political
  acumen to coordinate their works would also be important factors.

  Apart from setting good examples, the Chuan government also has the
  important task of increasing public participation in the political rules and
  take measures to restructure the outdated administrative system as well as
  strengthening measures to reduce vote buying in future elections.