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Date:         Wed, 27 Jan 1993 20:28:32 PST
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Subject:      CHINA: Continuing population explos

/* Written 12:03 am  Jan 22, 1993 by newsdesk@igc.apc.org in igc:ips.englibrary
*/
/* ---------- "CHINA: Continuing population explos" ---------- */
Copyright Inter Press Service 1993, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Africa, southern
Title: CHINA: Continuing population explosion due to rural baby booms?


an inter press service feature

by rajiv chandra

hebei, china, jan 19 (ips) -- xin shi does not mind that the
sewing machine that earned his family a much-needed supplementary
income has been confiscated, as long as his desire to have a
grandson is fulfilled.

upon learning that xin's daughter-in-law was pregnant soon
after giving birth to a girl, the village chief ordered the
machine appropriated as penalty for violating china's one-child
policy.

but although xin says his family will have to do without the
machine since they do not have the 30 dollars needed to redeem
it,  he adds that ''we'd rather pay the price than not have
another child''. breaking into a smile, he says, ''i'd be very
happy to see a grandson.''

despite the strong-arm practices of local officials to ensure
one-child families, china's population is spiralling higher every
year.

while the one-child policy has had an impact in the cities,
many rural families like xin shi's still bear penalties, pay
bribes and circumvent regulations just to have two or more
children.

indeed, there seems to be a population explosion in the
countryside, where the desire to have a male child to continue
the family lineage and support elderly parents remains strong.

most farmers would rather pay the penalty and keep trying to
have a male heir, says a villager here in the north-eastern
province of hebei.

hebei, along with hunan and henan provinces, is regarded as
one of the strongest enforcers of the birth control policy. hebei
village chief ma yu hua says strict birth control vigilance has
reduced the province's birth rate by 15 percent in the last few
years.

but villagers have a different story to tell. they say it is
often possible to bribe officials to 'buy' a birth certificate
for a second or even a third child.

one woman here estimated that among 40 families in her farm
production unit, at least half had paid penalties of up to a
total of 400 dollars to have additional children. (more/ips)

china: continuing (2)

such stories are worrisome for the state family planning
commission, which is projecting a rise in the number of fertile
women in china from 300 million in 1993 to 350 million in the
year 2000.

that means 23 million newborn babies annually for the next
ten years, making the country's population -- already the world's
biggest -- over 1.6 billion by the middle of next century.

this is despite a marked decline in the country's total
fertility rate -- or the number of children an average woman
bears in her lifetime -- in the past two decades.

largely because of aggressive family planning programmes
supplemented by strong educational propaganda, china's total
fertility rate slid from 6.4 in 1965 to 2.5 in 1990.

but family planning officials in beijing now say the time has
come for a more flexible approach to their policies, although
they admit caution is needed.

''if we say we want to change the policy, then the farmers
would think we've loosened up and start having more children,''
says state family planning commission doctor huang baosham.

non-chinese observers also question beijing's readiness to
ease the one-child restriction. for the central government, which
is wrestling with the repercussions of growing regional autonomy
and greater economic freedom, rigid family planning regulations
remain a vital state-controlled mechanism.

''restrictions on people's movements and power on how many
children they can have form a part of rigid social controls of
the government,'' says a western economist in beijing.

and while provinces like guangdong and yunan are already
distancing themselves from beijing and shaping their own birth
control regulations, others are sticking to the national policy.

huang says, though, that sometimes ''leaders of local
government are overanxious to reach their target and (are) harsh.
the population problem is quite serious, but we have to use
proper ways''.

family planning officials now hope the economic reforms will
help ease china's population explosion. indeed, a japanese-funded
model project is being set up in booming southern jiangsu
province as a population control showcase.

the area was chosen due to a growth of rural enterprises that
has led to the women's increased status. this in turn has
resulted in lower child mortality and birth rates and a decreased
desire to have more than one child. (end/ips/pr/rc/pp/cb/93)
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