From: aws@iti.org (Allen W. Sherzer)
Subject: Re: Stupid Shut Cost arguements (was Re: Terminal Velocity of DCX?
Organization: Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow
Date: Sat, 26 Dec 1992 19:56:23 GMT

In article <23DEC199220375318@judy.uh.edu> wingo%cspara.decnet@Fedex.Msfc.Nasa.gov writes:

>>The fact remains however that we did spend $34 billion to develop Shuttle...

>The numbers that I have seen from the Congressional budget office are 8.8
>billion dollars in 1974 dollars. Are you saying that we have had 400 percent
>inflation from 74 to 86?

400% is only two doublings which would be about right given 70's inflation.
I also have no idea what the CBO included or didn't include in the estimate.


>No what I said was that only if you included every single item that could
>possibly related to *any* US manned space program, would you get a number
>greater than 500 million dollars. This is what Pike did. 

Ah but Pike, doing what you describe above, came to a figure of about
$750M per flight. You are distorting what Pike said.

The $500M per flight is confirmed by NASA AND the Aldridge Commission. What
is it that you know which they don't?

>A great portion
>of these costs would be there no matter what system it is that is flying

Then charge them accordingly.

>men in space. This includes maintaining the test stands at Marshall and at
>Stennis and at Edwards and at Simi valley where the RL-10's are tested.

Since all RL-10 variants in the past 10 years have been paid for with
private funds, I'm sure they paid for their use of test facilities.

>This also includes the hangers at 501 Bolsa Avenue
>in Huntington Beach (McDonnell Douglas Space Systems Plant) where the
>DC would be built.

DC is being developed by SDIO, not NASA. It wouldn't have shown up in
Pike's analysis. Please be honest Dennis.

>>I just looked up the exact numbers. At 10 flights per year (roughly 80%
>>the US MLV market) a DC-1 should (if it works) cost $2700 per pound. This
>>is a third the cost of Shuttle and about 25% less than existing expendables.
>>If flight rate goes to 12 a year then costs drop to about $2300 per pound.
>>This assumes a $3B (twice McD's estimate) DDT&E cost over 10 years.

>Allen did you include the $9.9 billion dollar (1960 dollar) cost of the 
>development of the Titan? 

Did Boeing amortize the development costs of the MD-11 as part of the 767?
Your question has about the same level of meaning.

>Creative accounting does wonders when you sin by omission. As for some earlier
>commets of your about the shuttle being at maximum flight rate, it is obvious
>that NASA can launch one per month. 

I have stated my criteria before. When they can do it for two years then
I'll accept it.

>Also for your comment that the Shuttle can't handle more than 50 launches, I
>would love to hear your references for that.

Since I didn't say that I can't give you a reference.

  Allen

-- 
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Allen W. Sherzer | "A great man is one who does nothing but leaves        |
|  aws@iti.org     |  nothing undone"                                       |
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