From: sheaffer@netcom.com (Robert Sheaffer)
Subject: Psychics' Predictions Fizzle For 1992
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)
Date: Sat, 2 Jan 1993 04:46:22 GMT



                                Bay Area Skeptics


                      PSYCHICS' PREDICTIONS FIZZLE FOR 1992


        President  Bush  was  not re-elected. Madonna did  not  become  a
        gospel  singer,  and  a UFO base was not  found  in  the  Mexican
        desert.  These were just a few of the many predictions  that  had
        been made for 1992 by famous "psychics", but were dead wrong,  as
        chronicled by the Bay Area Skeptics.

        At the end of each year, many well-known "psychics" issue predic-
        tions  for  the  year to come. Twelve months  later,  they  issue
        another  set of predictions, conveniently forgetting  those  made
        the  year before, which are always nearly 100% wrong. Each  year,
        however,  the Bay Area Skeptics dig up the predictions  made  the
        year before, to the embarrassment of those who made them.

        Many  of  the "psychic" predictions made are so vague that it  is
        impossible  to say if they came true or not: for  example,  Jeane
        Dixon's  prediction that Tracey Gold "faces perilous  periods  in
        July  and  October" [The Star, April 14, 1992] is  not  obviously
        true  or  false.  Many other "predictions"  involve  things  that
        happen  every year, or else are not difficult to guess,  such  as
        terrorist  incidents,  marital strife for Charles and  Diana,  or
        severe  winter storms. Many supposed "predictions"  simply  state
        that  ongoing events and trends will continue, such  as  economic
        uncertainty, or conflict in the Middle East. Some predictions did
        of  course come true, especially those that were  unspecific,  or
        not  at  all difficult to guess:  several  "psychics"   correctly
        predicted  that  a  hurricane would cause  major  destruction  in
        Florida  or  Cuba,  but not one was specific as to  the  date  or
        principal  location of the damage. Hurricanes occur,  of  course,
        every season in the Caribbean.  Significantly, not one prediction
        which was both specific and surprising came true.

        Other  supposed "predictions" are not really predictions at  all,
        but  are  actually disclosures of little-known events  which  are
        already  under  way, such as movie productions,  marriage  plans,
        business ventures, or developing scandals.  Because  questionable
        claims  of having made an amazing prediction are frequently  made
        in  the  wake of major news stories, the Bay Area  Skeptics  only
        evaluates predictions that were published or broadcast before the
        events they claimed to foretell.

        New  York  "psychic" Lou Wright predicted that  three  men  would
        unsuccessfully  attempt  to kidnap Candice Bergen in  Paris,  and
        Marlon Brando would be arrested for trying to bust his son out of
        jail [Natl. Enquirer, Jan. 2, 1992].

        Los Angeles "psychic" Maria Graciette predicted that a secret UFO
        base  would  be found deep in the Mexican  desert,  thousands  of
        years old, and that Vice-President Dan Quayle, attending a  World
        Series  game, would impulsively interfere with a  play  [National
        Enquirer, June 9, 1992].

        New York "psychic" John Monti predicted that "a massive hurricane
        will devastate Cuba and topple Castro's regime," that a huge AIDS
        epidemic  would "threaten to end professional  sports"  [National
        Enquirer,  Jan.  2, 1992], and that a  scientific  advance  would
        allow  women to delay menopause, allowing them to  have  children
        into their 60s [National Enquirer, June 9, 1992].

        The famous Washington, D.C. "psychic" Jeane Dixon, who supposedly
        has  a  "gift  of  prophecy", saw  that  Fidel  Castro  would  be
        overthrown, possibly resulting in Cuba becoming part of the U.S.,
        and  Virginia governor Douglas Wilder would gain  enough  support
        for   a  "vice-presidential  invitation".  President-elect   Bill
        Clinton,  however,  she  described as  "the  Democratic  shooting
        star,"  for whom "an organization of women will try to block  his
        path"  [The Star, Jan. 21, 1992]. President Bush's ratings  would
        climb, resulting in his reelection [The Star, July 7, 1992].  She
        also  predicted "a promising economic upturn in the spring,"  and
        that  "broccoli  will become the miracle vegetable of  the  '90s"
        [The Star, Jan. 21, 1992].

        Chicago "psychic" Irene Hughes predicted that Vanna White and her
        husband would purchase a "haunted" mansion in Beverly Hills, from
        which  they would flee in terror a week later.  Madonna's  career
        would  be  interrupted  by a "mystery  illness,"  but  she  would
        recover  after  having a religious vision, and  become  a  gospel
        singer [National Enquirer, June 9, 1992].

        New  York  "psychic" Laura Steele predicted  that  an  earthquake
        would  topple  the Gateway Arch in St. Louis,  and  that  William
        Kennedy  Smith would enter the priesthood to become a  missionary
        in Africa [National Enquirer, Jan. 2, 1992].

        Los  Angeles  "psychic" Judy Hevenly predicted that  George  Bush
        would  be re-elected "by a landslide," that Madonna would be  hit
        by  a  car  while jogging in New York's  Central  Park  [National
        Enquirer, Jan. 2, 1992], and that Gennifer Flowers would join the
        cast of a popular daytime soap opera [National Enquirer, June  9,
        1992].

        Another Southern California "psychic," Clarisa Bernhardt, who  is
        claimed  to  make "uncanny earthquake predictions,"  warned  that
        scientists   would  be  "shocked"  in  October  when   supposedly
        earthquake-proof  Florida is hit by a trembler, only weeks  after
        being  hit by "the worst hurricane in the state's  history."  The
        prediction  that  this  year's  hurricane  season  would  produce
        Florida's  worst destruction yet was correct, but the  earthquake
        prediction  was  dead wrong. Bernhardt also predicted  that  Joan
        Lunden  would  renew  her marriage vows on  her  TV  show,  "Good
        Morning America" [National Enquirer, June 9, 1992], that  Michael
        Jackson  would  lose his voice and quit singing,  and  that  Joan
        Rivers  would  be plagued by three  look-alikes  created  through
        "extensive plastic surgery" [National Enquirer, Jan. 2, 1992].

        Joan  Quigley  of San Francisco, White House  astrologer  to  the
        Reagans,  predicted  that  Bill Clinton would run  out  of  money
        toward the campaign's end, and that the total eclipse of the  sun
        on  June 30 will cause earthshaking events in  China  [Washington
        Post, April 18, 1992].

        Here  in  Northern  California,  the  date  of  that  devastating
        California  earthquake everybody keeps predicting was pegged  for
        Oct.  17,  the  third anniversary of the Loma  Prieta  quake,  by
        "psychic" Ernesto A. Moshe Montgomery, who claims an accuracy  of
        99 1/2 percent [San Jose Metro, Feb. 27, 1992].

        Based  on  the  continuing  failure of  the  "psychics"  to  make
        accurate predictions over the years, the Bay Area Skeptics  urges
        everyone  -  especially  the media -  to  exercise  some  healthy
        skepticism when "psychics" and other purveyors of the  paranormal
        make  extra-ordinary claims or predictions. Anyone  who  swallows
        the  "psychics'"  claims  year after year  without  checking  the
        record is setting a bad example for students and for the public.

        It is important to note that no "psychic" succeeded in predicting
        the  genuinely surprising news stories of 1992:  The  destructive
        fire  in Windsor Castle; the feud between  Vice-President  Quayle
        and  Murphy Brown; the surprising presidential campaign of   Ross
        Perot.  These major news stories were so totally unexpected  that
        someone  would  have  had  to  be  genuinely  "psychic"  to  have
        predicted  them twelve months ago! Given the sheer number of  so-
        called "psychics" out there, one would expect that if even one of
        them  were  genuine,  these  things  would  have  been  correctly
        predicted;  and  since they were not, it suggests that  all  such
        claims of "psychic powers" are without foundation.

        The Bay Area Skeptics is a group of people from all walks of life
        who support the critical examination of paranormal  claims,  such
        as  psychic  powers, UFOs, astrology, Bigfoot,  biorhythms,  etc.
        Similar skeptics' organizations are active in many other areas of
        the  country,  including New York, Colorado,  Georgia,  Illinois,
        Southern California, Arizona, Texas, and Ohio. The Committee  for
        the   Scientific  Investigation  of  Claims  of  the   Paranormal
        (CSICOP),  headquartered  in  Buffalo, NY,  is  an  international
        Skeptics'   organization,  made  up  of  many   famous   writers,
        scientists,  and investigators, such as Martin  Gardner,  Stephen
        Jay Gould, Carl Sagan, Philip J. Klass, and many others.  Similar
        skeptics'  groups  have also formed in  many  foreign  countries,
        including Australia, Canada, France, the United Kingdom,  Mexico,
        Japan, and India. These groups cooperate in making their findings
        available to other researchers, and to the public.

        For more information about the activities and publications of the
        Bay  Area Skeptics, you can call their recorded message  line  at
        510-LA TRUTH.
-- 
  
        Robert Sheaffer - Scepticus Maximus - sheaffer@netcom.com
  
 Past Chairman, The Bay Area Skeptics - for whom I speak only when authorized!


     "Mystical explanations are considered deep. The truth is that
      they are not even superficial."

                   - Friedrich Nietzsche    (The Gay Science: 126)
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