From: bell@beethoven.cs.unc.edu (Andrew Bell)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc
Subject: Re: Drug Legalization.  Was: College Was: Perot
Date: 8 Apr 92 19:44:38 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

In article <1992Apr7.171124.21483@kpc.com> emmett@kpc.com (Emmett Kilgariff) writes:
>In article <rq8f0INN1kn@matt.ksu.ksu.edu> strat@matt.ksu.ksu.edu (Steve Davis) writes:
>>The reason why the illegality of drugs causes drug violences include 1)
>	[basically sound arguments, deleted for brevity]

>	This resoning is somewhat utopian. Here is my resoning: 1) Following
>the lessons of prohibition, the price would drop, and organized crime would 
>find something else to do.

Organized crime was already doing it.  Legalizing alcohol took away a huge
source of revenue,  thus reducing the incentive for people to join up.
Most criminal or violent people aren't inherently criminal or violent;
they are pushed towards it by social pressures,  of which the financial
incentive is a large part.

In Durham,  a city right near me,  they're worried about Jamaican drug
gangs.  Would those gangs be here if the drug profits weren't?  I think
not.

>Remember- when prohibition ended, alcoholism doubled!

I have seen no evidence for this,  and the gov'ts statistical evidence
indicates quite the opposite.  (Full table and citation included at the
end of this article.)

Deaths from alcoholism (acute and chronic) and cirrhosis:
(per 100,000 population)
				Alcoholism      Cirrhosis*      Total
Last 10 years of Prohibition:	34.3/10 = 3.43  85.1/10 = 8.51  11.94
The next 10 years:		22.1/10 = 2.21  87.1/10 = 8.71  10.92

Alcoholism-related deaths went down substantially.  Cirrhosis deaths
increased slightly.

>2) the quality of drugs would improve, but abuse and addiction 
>would increase (look at cigarettes and alcohol) and non-violent deaths
>would increase.

Non-violent deaths decreased.  What do you want me to "look at alcohol
and cigarettes" for?

>3) Mafia bottleggers found something else to do after
>prohibition ended, getting into gambling, politics, and other areas, they
>won't just dissapear, but they will be less powerful & probably less 
>dangerous.

Ok,  you accept the above already.  Sounds to me like this would be a
major plus...

   -Andrew Bell

bell@cs.unc.edu

----------

Deaths from alcoholism (acute and chronic) and cirrhosis:
(per 100,000 population)

Average deaths:

                Alcoholism      Cirrhosis*      Total
1924-1933**     34.3/10 = 3.43  85.1/10 = 8.51  11.94
1934-1943       22.1/10 = 2.21  87.1/10 = 8.71  10.92

*Alcohol abuse is not the primary causitive factor for Cirrhosis in
 a substantial percentage of cases.

**   I start in 1924 because organized crime took a little while to get up
     to speed,  and thus for the first couple of years of Prohibition,  it
     was mildly successful.


Year    Alcoholism Deaths       Cirrhosis Deaths*
----
1918            2.7                     11.7
1919            1.6                      9.8
1920**          1.0                      8.9
1921            1.8                      9.2
1922            2.6                      9.2
1923            3.2                      8.8
1924            3.1                      8.9
1925            3.6                      8.7
1926            3.9                      8.6
1927            4.0                      8.8
1928            4.0                      8.8
1929            3.7                      8.3
1930            3.5                      8.3
1931            3.3                      8.4
1932            2.5                      8.0
1933***         2.6                      8.3
1934            2.9                      8.4
1935            2.6                      8.5
1936            2.9                      8.8
1937            2.6                      8.9
1938            2.0                      8.6
1939            1.9                      8.5
1940            1.9                      8.6
1941            1.8                      8.8
1942            1.9                      9.1
1943            1.6                      8.9

*    Cirrhosis deaths are adjusted for the age distribution of the population
     by the authors of the second document mentioned below
**   Prohibition begins
***  Prohibition ends,  December 5th,  1933

[Statistics taken from "Vital Statistic Rates in the United States 1940-1960",
published by the National Center for Health Statistics,  a division of the
Department of Health,  Education,  and Welfare ;  and from "U.S. Alcohol
Epidemiologic Data Reference Manual,  Volume 2:  Liver Cirrhosis
Mortality in the U.S."  published by the National Institute for Alcohol Abuse
[NIAA],  Rockville,  MD.]
Xref: sparky talk.politics.misc:17998 talk.environment:1436 alt.activism:7634 rec.nude:2145