From: sdr57@cas.org ()
Subject: Re: Mike Royko Column
Organization: Chemical Abstracts Service, Columbus, Ohio
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 19:13:46 GMT

In article <1a7i0hINNii9@agate.berkeley.edu> bks@alfa.berkeley.edu (Bradley K. Sherman) writes:
>Mike Royko writes in the _Chicago Tribute_:
>
>        There was this squib of a news story that came  over  the
>    wires  the  other  day. It wasn't much longer than a baseball
>    box score or an interview with a rock  star  about  his  next
>    tour. It said:
>        ``Boston (AP) -- The death rate among Iraqi children rose
>    dramatically  in  the  months after the gulf war, largely be-
>    cause of an outbreak of diarrhea caused by disabled water and
>    sewage systems, researchers reported today.
>        ``In the first seven months of 1991,  about  46,900  more
>    children  died  than would have been expected, according to a
>    study in the New England Journal of Medicine.
>        ``It said the death rate for children under 5 was  triple
>    that before the war.
>        ``The study was conducted by Dr. Alberto Ascherio of  the
>    Harvard  School  of  Public Health and other researchers from
>    the United States, England, New Guinea  and  Jordan.  It  was
>    paid for by the United Nations Children's Fund.
>        ``The researchers said they worked independently  of  the
>    Iraqi government.''

Comparisons of death toll deleted

>        But what we don't see is described in the full report  by
>    the doctors who made this study:
>        ``The destruction of the supply of electric power at  the
>    beginning  of  the war, with the subsequent disruption of the
>    electricity-dependent water and sewage systems, was  probably
>    responsible  for  the  reported epidemics of gastrointestinal
>    and other infections.
>        ``These epidemics were worsened by the  reduced  accessi-
>    bility  of  health  services  and  decreased ability to treat
>    severely ill children.''
>        In other words, we don't see those invisible  but  deadly
>    killers  in the water or the children screaming because their
>    stomachs hurt and their fevers are raging. And we  don't  see
>    them weaken, fade, then die.
>        But who would want to see a downer like that, anyway?
>        In a classic understatement, the doctors concluded: ``War
>    is  never  good  for  health.  But the full effect of war and
>    economic sanctions on morbidity and mortality is difficult to
>    assess,  and  the  number  of  civilian casualties caused in-
>    directly is likely to be underestimated.
>        ``... During the gulf war, it was suggested that by using
>    high-  precision  weapons  with strategic targets, the Allied
>    forces were producing only limited damage to the civilian po-
>    pulation.
>        ``The results of our study contradict this claim and con-
>    firm  that  the  casualties  of  war  extend far beyond those
>    caused directly by warfare.''
>        Forty-six thousand nine hundred kids. Give or take a  few
>    tots.
>        So what color ribbon do we wear for that triumph?

No one said war was pleasant - especially for the losers.
In fact, it is generally agreed that war is hell.
But...
The study also doesn't break out how many casualties Mr. Husseins
refusals to comply with the UN resolutions caused by delaying
the rebuilding of the infrastructure. Nor does it compare
the collateral deaths in this conflict with those of other
conflicts because, according to an interview on NPR with
one of the authors of the study, no one has done such a study
before. It thus seems possible that, horrifying as the
numbers are, they are less than would have been the case without
the use of PGM. I presume that the author of the original post
doesn't mean to suggest that we should not try to avoid inflicting
direct casualties on the civilian population simply because there
will be indirect casualties.

******************************************************************************
Renegade academician. They're a dangerous breed when they go feral,
academics are...a chemist, too.
		    -(James P. Blaylock in "Lord Kelvin's Machine")

My organization hasn't agreed with any of my opinions so far, and
I doubt they'll start now.

Stanley "Ya nee speon" Roberts

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