From: el0g+@andrew.cmu.edu (Erik Lauer)
Newsgroups: rec.games.board
Subject: Re: A&A: Allied guide to crushing Germany
Date: 6 Oct 92 11:43:49 GMT
	<#_fpy8f@lynx.unm.edu>
Organization: Doctoral student, Mathematics, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA


 emullins@triton.unm.edu (Eric Mullins) writes:

>In defence of the Allied Guide to Crushing Germany, I feel compelled to
>nmention that the opinions that follow are my own, and not necessarily
>those of the original author, Tim Hsu.
>
>Erik Lauer <el0g+@andrew.cmu.edu> writes:
>><USA 1st move.>
>><1) Destroy the remains of the German navy.
>><2) Move 3P to E. or W. US
>><2) Build 1C, 2TT, and put them in E. US.
>>The carrier is a waste of resources.  By now you would not need it.
>
>See Below.
>
>><Russian 2nd move.
>><1) Attack E. Europe with all the inf, 2T, and 2P.
>><2) Build 9 inf in Karelia.
>>
>>Could be bad if germans took the caucuses the first turn, you would lose
>>Russia.  If not, then there should be a lot of stuff in E. Europ
>>(everything that can reach, including the aa gun, and 2 inf  or 1 tank
>>from Finland).  By starting such a poor battle, you may just give the
>>axis a resonable chance of winning.
>
>Well, what exactly do you have Germany doing?  In the discussion below,
>I'll assume you did:
>
>1:attacked Caucuses with the land units from Ukraine.

Yuck!  I would not send that much.  The comment on attacking the
Caucuses would mean a small amount attacks, though I think it is better
not to send any units there the first turn.

>2:attacked E. Europe with the infantry from Germany and a couple tanks
>  from somewhere.  Note, it's awful to use all your tanks since every
 > unit remaining will be destroyed by the Russians next turn.
Well, in fact I send every unit that can get there (including 2 inf from
Finland) there, including an AA gun.  If the Russians can destroy all
this, I probably lose, but this should give me (If I remember the setup
correctly) 2 inf from Finland, 3 inf from Ukraine, 6 inf from Germany
(13 inf) +  7 tanks and an AA gun.  The Russians should have 16 inf, 2
fighters 2 tanks to attack with.  Normally I send 2 inf to Africa as you
say, but if you save a tank I can not (though you have given me a
slightly better luck shot at having you not take Eastern Europe in the
first place, this is a desperate game for the axis).  You would be
attacking 20 2's with 16 1's and 4 3's (plus I have the bonus chance of
hitting with my AA).  You probably lose (20 2's vs. 28 1's has an
extremely slight favor to the Germans, and your units have the same
firepower but fewer hits than the 28 infs).  If you take this battle, it
is favoring the axis, with a lot of stuff on the line.  Even somewhat
below average luck could give the game away.
>3:destroyed all the naval units near you.  I'm not going to go into
>  the details; but I'll even be generous and let kill every enemy
>  boat, and incur no losses in the plane department.
Well you don't have to be that generous, I don't attack the lone British
BB the first turn (assuming you did something productive with the
Russian fleet the first turn).  However I agree this is not really worth
going into here.
>4:used the inf in S. Europe to attack africa
>5:land 4 fighters, and bomber in W. Europe
>6:consolidate land units in Germany, save 2 inf in W. Europe.
No, I consolidate the in E. Europe.  Obviously you would just crush it
easily otherwise.
>7:build 2 inf S. Europe, 8 inf Germany.
Sure, maybe 1 tank instead.
>On the next Russian turn, he does:
>1:attacks Caucuses with 4 inf, and two tanks blitz-krieg through ukraine
>2:attacks E. Europe with X inf and 2 planes.  X is the minimum
 > number necessary to take the area.  I plan for leaving 3 units left
>  with average luck, that way, with poor luck, I'm still ok.
>3:build 9 inf in Karaelia, land fighters there.

>if this isn't what you wanted to do, sorry. You gave me nothing
>to go by.
I know it was a stupid post.  I was in a shitty mood, your plan is not
that bad, but I have never seen the Germans give up Eastern Europe, so
that would not occur to me.  I have even seen the Germans use their
transport the first turn to go the other way to help here (it is
horrible for production, but the given scenario is so desperate,
attacking the one Caucuses inf with 1 inf, 1 bb shot and hoping to roll
well against the inf there has been done - 1 tank (transported) one inf
(mainland) plus bb shot has a very good chance of winning, and taking
the Caucuses really take a few Russian units away from a potential
attack on Eastern Europe the second turn.  I think it is clear that if
the Germans lose Eastern Europe they are in big trouble (ok if you are
playing with tech rolls maybe the axis can play that route).

>On the next Russian turn, he does:
>1:attacks Caucuses with 4 inf, and two tanks blitz-krieg through ukraine
Well I don't normally go there, but I know some people who do.
>2:attacks E. Europe with X inf and 2 planes.  X is the minimum
>  number necessary to take the area.  I plan for leaving 3 units left
>  with average luck, that way, with poor luck, I'm still ok.
X is greater than the total number available.  If this were feasible it
would be a great plan.  Owning Eastern Europ leads to a simple allied
victory.
>3:build 9 inf in Karaelia, land fighters there.
>><British 2nd move.
>><1) Put 1P onto the US carrier.
>><2) Build 1C, 4TT, and inf (will be 2-3).
>>Wow, you really are into wasting lots of money on carriers!  One loaded
>>carrier an lots of transports is plenty (the germans can throw their air
>>force away to kill some transports, but the exchange in cost is poor,
>>and the Germans lose by trading money with the allies).
>
>It's called being thorough.  Against 1C, 2P, 4TT, Germany can if lucky
>kill all the transports and loose only a couple of planes (by retreating).
>If this happens, all the Allied efforts have been for naught, so more
>naval strength is required to offset one slim chance the Axis may have.
Well, normally I would be content to have one carrier, and build an
excess of transports for my current unit instead (I will be able to use
them soon enough).  An axis attack on a carrier, 2 planes, 8 TT (2 US, 6
British) to get me very low on TT without huge air losses would require
quite a bit more luck than having a huge victory on your E. Europe
counterattack.
>><USA 2nd move.
>><1) Move all naval units and transport as many land units as possible to
>><   Britain.  Move 2P onto the UK carrier, and 1P onto the US carrier.
 Shuffle
>><   inf and tanks to E. Canada.
>><2) Build 2TT, and inf in E. US.
>>Well, after going through all the effort to make your navy safe, you
>>build two transports, and allow them to be attacked by planes!
>
>>This is one of my quibbles with the plan, and why I recommend that Germany
>>land its bomber in W. Europe.  Normally, I just build 10 inf here and
>wait to build the transports next turn, after the bomber is forced to
>land somewhere else.  I'm not going to go into why.. If you try the
>sceneario, you'll see why.

Well, having a large allied transport fleet here is common, and I agree
with your assertion it can not stay there.  If US has no transports at
its coasts, I do not see why you commit your self to having 10 inf (who
knows what bizzare moves the germans will make).  You could just save
you money for next turn.  Of course if any Western fleet got around,
that would make your transports safe, making this whole thing moot.  But
this is just the stuff that is always done.

>><Russian 3rd move: repeat Russian 2nd move.
>>Stupider still, you have no tanks, may have already lost a plane, and
>>are attacking more inf with fewer inf.  Seems like this is a program to
>>lose the entire game!
>
>more inf with fewer inf?  Please explain how Germany has more inf than
>Russia at this point.  Also, in the above Russia/German conflict,
>Russia still has two unopposed tanks in caucusses.
Well, the Germans are building more inf (with E. Europe in trouble, they
should not send inf to Africa), plus it is my contention you are likely
to lose your first battle.  After that the Germans can land their air
force there (since they can't keep it in W Europe any more, the allies
can crush that place).

>Again, your not supporting your claims.  I have done this battle
>repeatedly, and Russia does have a substantial force.  Usually,
>it's about the same strenght as the German force.  What you may
>be missing is the fact that both Russia and Germany have the
>same need to re-capture E. Europe.  Whether or not the battle
>is lousy economywise is irrelevent, because both sides have to
>make the same "lousy" battle as you call it.

Again I am sorry, yesterday was a shitty day.  Do you want me to
simulate the battle of your 16 inf 2 tanks 2 fighters vs aa gun 13 inf 7
armor? (perhaps someone else already has a simulator handy - If not I
could write one using dynamic programming and get the algebraic
results).  I can tell you in a 1's attack 2's battle, a ratio of sqrt(2)
is required to make a perfectly even battle (if you want to see why,
assume a ratio of sqrt(2) peices, and average results for one round -
the next round will have the exact same ration but fewer peices).  It is
a lousy battle for the allies because they should win the game even with
somewhat poor luck, and here they don't even get good results with
average rolls.  I was (without thinking) assuming the German player
would count out enough troops to hold E. Europe as long as he could.

...[talk about Eastern Eruop being much more important thab Ukraine]

>><If this Japanese force turns out to be larger than you had expected, putting
>><most of the RAF on Moscow, along with the Russian inf and aircraft should
>><keep the Japanese from progressing.
>>With the $ the axis earn under this plan, the small amount of support
>>you give the Russians (you spend so much on planes and carriers instead
>>of more inf and transports), the way you throw away Russian inf, Russia
>>will be dead very soon.
>
>Bologna.  Russia isn't in any danger until Germany is Jailed to
>one territory--Germany.  At that time, the units shift to Moscow
>to thwart any Japaneese offensive.

Well, I think there is a miscommunication here.  I still think your plan
does not work against what I think is the normal German plan (pile
enough in E. Europe so it won't go down, or everything if that has a
decent chance but is still not quite enough).  If you do it against the
normal hoard in E. Europe, I think you will lose the turn 2 battle, and
a turn 3 battle would be absurd.

Normal play makes Russia never be in any danger (other than getting
seriously outrolled -- normal allied plans count on axis outrolling them
since the game is so easy if you don't roll poorly).
>-- 
>   Eric Mullins			Internet: emullins@triton.unm.edu
>Mars the God of War		Bitnet:   emullins@unmb.bitnet

Erik
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