From: russ@pmafire.inel.gov (Russ Brown)
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 92 19:10:12 GMT
Organization: WINCO
Subject: Re: A/C Magnetic Fields and Cancer (II)
Summary: 
Followup-To: 
Organization: WINCO
Keywords: 

In article <Bz2z4o.FBz@techbook.com> kim@techbook.com (Kim Larsen) writes:
>As I was saying before I so rudely interrupted myself:
>
>In the New Yorker article on the link between magnetic fields from high-power
>lines and cancer, the writer says that utility companies used to say, "If
>such a link exists, why hasn't there been an increase in childhood cancer
>to accompany the increase in electrical usage in the past 30 years?"  In fact,
>as the National Cancer Institute pointed out in June, 1991, in recent years,
>childhood leukemia has increased almost 11 percent and childhood brain
>cancer more than 30 percent.  
>
>In addition, several recent studies have shown a higher-than-expected rate
>of breast cancer in men exposed to electromagnetic fields (telephone linemen,
>electricians, etc.).
>
>Although the EPA study has come under criticism, the article makes a pretty
>convincing case that this criticism has come from mainly from utility
>companies and their friends.
>
What is the reference for the NCI (June, 1991) statement?

Childhood leukemia data published by NCI provides the following
perspectives.

Acute-lymphocytic leukemia mortality (From NIH Publication 91-2789,
1991).  Note that almost all childhood leukemia is ALL.

Year     Age-adjusted Incidence Rate (Age: 0-14)

1973       2.4
1974       3.4
1975       2.3
1976       2.9
1977       3.1
1978       3.2
1979       2.9
1980       3.0
1981       3.4
1982       3.2
1983       3.1
1984       3.3
1985       3.5
1986       3.4
1987       3.2
1988       3.2 
     
This does not seem suggestive of a major trend.  11% changes would
appear to be within the range of historical variations.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Mortality Data for all Leukemia Types (Age: 0-19) (NCI Developmental Program)

5-yr period   AAR (U.S.)

1953-57        3.42
1958-62        3.54
1963-67        3.34
1968-72        2.83
1973-77        2.22
1978-82        1.78
1983-87        1.44

Childhood leukemia mortality has decreased over the last 40 years
because of advances in treatment while incidence has not changed a great
deal.  Attribution of any changes that have been observed to a single
cause is a leap of faith or, perhaps, predilection.  Having an "answer"
and searching for facts to support the answer is a task better left to lawyers.

Note that total childhood cancer incidence has increased by 4.1% over
the 1973-88 period... but there may be lots of reasons, none of which
are known.

The highest childhood leukemia mortality rates in the nation of the past 40
years have been observed in Nebraska, New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. 
The Nebraska excess is fairly general, while that in NY, MA, and NJ appears
to be more urban.  

Washington, D.C. (with caveat for smaller population) has a 55% excess
over the last 40 years; highly significant, p<0.001.

Note also the the Brodeur articles in the New Yorker were masterpieces
of wretched excess, even worse than some peer-reviewed articles in JAMA.