From: nyikos@math.scarolina.edu (Peter Nyikos)
Subject: Re: FETAL AGE ESTIMATES (with apology to LM about LMP)
Organization: USC  Department of Computer Science
Date: 25 Jan 93 20:46:55 GMT

In <1993Jan22.232424.25467@watson.ibm.com> margoli@watson.ibm.com (Larry Margolis) writes:

>In <nyikos.727646212@milo.math.scarolina.edu> nyikos@math.scarolina.edu (Peter Nyikos) writes:
>>In <1993Jan20.040358.22975@watson.ibm.com> margoli@watson.ibm.com (Larry Margolis) writes:
>>>In <nyikos.727467367@milo.math.scarolina.edu> nyikos@math.scarolina.edu (Peter Nyikos) writes:
>>>>In <1993Jan19.054345.22273@watson.ibm.com> margoli@watson.ibm.com (Larry Margolis) writes:
>[excess atributions deleted]
>>
>>Oops! Looks like my eye glossed over the  LMP in ...>>>LMP both
>>now and in previous
>>posts.  My apologies to Larry, who is *not* full of it in this instance,
>>but was correct in stating that vengeanc@...  was full of it in this
>>instance.  I stated otherwise, due to these glosses and/or lapses of
>>memory.
>>
>>>No, your general posting style is uncivil - you're the one that started
>>>with the nicknames, not me; you throw in gratuitous insults in posts
>>>where I'm not even involved; you lie about me; etc.
				^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
You were the one who started being uncivil to me, by horning in on a 
delicate negotiation with Sarah McCabe in re her fisting offer, ending
by hurling at me the contemptuous phrase, "Up yours."

>>Present what you take to be evidence of this, or retract this claim.
>>
>>I admit I have made bad judgments of you, Larry [see above instance]
>>but they were all in good faith.

>I could dig into my archives and see what I've saved, but you include an
>example in this post:

>>>>You have behaved dishonestly towards him, Larry.

>You didn't say I was wrong, you said I was behaving in a dishonest manner,
>which implies a willful perversion of truth.  The suggestion that I was
>wrong is, as you've admitted, wrong.  The imputation of malicious motive
>is a lie.

I made the statement in good faith, on the basis of a simple misreading of
the evidence.  That is not the same thing as a lie.

>>One little nagging point: could you tell me where I can look up these
>>stats myself?  I want to make sure the expression LMP was used.

>The following:
># 50% of the 1.6 million abortions each year take place at 8 weeks or less
># from the last time the woman menstruated (LMP); 27% at 9-10 weeks LMP; and
># 12% at 11-12 weeks LMP.  6% of abortions take place at 13-15 weeks LMP;
># 4% at 16-20 weeks LMP; and less than 1% at 21 weeks LMP or more (0.6%).

>is a direct quote from "Facts in Brief / Abortion in the United States",
>published by The Alan Guttmacher Institute.  I'm the one who typed it in
>originally, and I just double-checked it against the paper.  If you
>doubt my word, you can write them and ask for a copy:
>   111 Fifth Avenue
>   New York NY   10003
>   212-254-5656

>   2010 Massachusetts Avenue NW
>   Washington DC   20036
>   202-296-4012

>Or, I'd be willing to mail or fax you a photocopy of my copy.

I'll see if it's available in the library.  Thank you.

>>>>No, Larry, there are ways of estimating fetal age besides the woman's
>>>>word, and if you don't know that, your knowledge of abortion is truly
>>>>Lilliputian.
>>
>>>That's estimating gestational age, not estimating time since LMP.
>>
>>I wonder whether "gestational age" refers to time since implantation.

>My dictionary refers to time since conception, but I admit that I don't
>know if this is the same definition the medical references use.  (An
>interesting question, but unrelated to the above, since LMP is what
>was used in the statistics given, not gestational age.)

Nowadays conception is taken to be synonymous with implantation.

"Conception is the implantation of the blastocyst.  It is not synonymous
with fertilization."  E. Hughes, ed. _OB & GYN Terminology_, Philadelphia,
F. A. Davis, 1972. 

>>it is customary to say that pregnancy starts with implantation, not
>>fertilization.

>Actually, I think it's more customary to refer to when the sex act took
>place, rather than to either implantation *or* fertilization.  ("Do you know
>when you got pregnant?"  "It was the night we went on the hay ride.")

Seems like there is a little inconsistency in the preceding few paragraphs.

>>>>>As you pointed out, according to a number of dictionaries (which appears
>>>>>to reflect common usage), fetushood starts at the end of the third month.
>>>>
>>>>You still have not answered my question of what these lexicographers
>>>>think the intermediate entity (end of 8th week to beginning of 3rd month)
>>>>is called.

>I just noticed *when* the question was asked.  Since you are pointing out a
>failure to answer, perhaps you care to respond now?

Who, me?  I asked the question.  I thought you knew how attributions work:

>In article <1992Sep18.035549.29291@watson.ibm.com> I wrote:
>#In  <nyikos.716755739@milo.math.scarolina.edu>  nyikos@math.scarolina.edu writes:
>#> Just what do these lexicographers think the intermediate (8 weeks to
>#> 3 months) entity is *usu* called?
>#
>#Does this relate in any way to the definition of "atheist", or are you
>#attempting to change the subject?  I would speculate that you're doing the
>#latter because you realize that you blew it.
>#
>#(Note that when I *do* speculate, I label it properly.  :-)

Note that you are not answering the question.  You are ducking it.

>> The discussion of who's right and who's wrong is
>>>in regards to the erroneous claim that the majority of what is aborted
>>>is in the fetal stage (a claim which *you* made).  As I stated above:
>>
>>I did not make the claim.

>If I say you did, it's a pretty good bet that you did.  In the future, you
>might want to hedge by saying that you don't *remember* saying it.

Simmonds made the claim.  I was just making comments about the internal
logic of the claim.  I have no idea what the true stats are.  For that
matter, neither does anyone else.

>Did you not write the following, with the subject line "Nyikos and the one
>bad apple theory of forced pregnancy."?
>In <nyikos.725150678@milo.math.scarolina.edu> nyikos@math.scarolina.edu
>   (Peter Nyikos) writes:
>#Meanwhile, 1,600,000 unborn children, most of them already in the
>#fetus stage, are aborted each year in the USA alone.

>Is this another example of "Down the Nyikos memory hole"?  :-)

No, it's an example of assuming one meant age since fertilization instead
of LMP.  Remember, I was criticized by several people for bringing up
LMP last August or September, when everyone supposedly means age since
fertilization.  Since you read everything in talk.abortion (at least
that is what you claim) why didn't you correct these bozos?

>>I merely shed doubt on the correctness of yours.  As I do below.
>[...]
>>In fact, Hern writes in _Abortion Practice_, copyright 1984:
>>
>>	Correlation between the sonographic estimate of fetal age
>>	and the measured result is 0.97...whereas correlation with
>>	the last menstrual period is only 0.62 at best and the correlation
>>	with the physician's estimate is 0.87.  [pp. 209-210]

>I don't see the point, here.  LMP is Last Menstrual Period; it's obviously
>a way of *bracketing* when conception occurred, not pinpointing it exactly.
>Steven Matheson took this into account when doing his calculations.

But part of the issue is how often the woman's recollection of LMP is  
valid.

>>How am I doing in this post, by your reckoning?

>Better, although your statement "I hold [that your love of wordplay and
>mindgames is inexorably making a fundamentally dishonest person out of you]
>in abeyance, pending further evidence." contains an implication that I have
>a tendancy towards dishonesty, which is not true.

That remains to be seen.

>>>Are you suggesting that a sizable percentage of women don't know when
>>>their LMP was?
>>
>>Seems like Warren Hern does that above.

>That doesn't answer the question.  First, saying that using an estimation
>with a month's leeway doesn't correlate well with something that attempts to
>pinpoint the exact age says nothing about whether the woman's statement of
>when the *reference point* for the first estimation occurred is accurate.

A month's leeway makes hash out of all claims that most abortions occur
in the embryonic stage.

>Second, the question was whether *you* are suggesting that, not Warren Hern.

I was, based on sources like Hern and *Anders v. Floyd*.

Newsgroups: talk.abortion