From: sunder@altair.crhc.uiuc.edu (Srinivas Sunder)
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections
Subject: Re: WSJ on Current State Breakdown
Date: 23 Aug 1992 21:35:40 GMT
Organization: Center for Reliable and High-Performance Computing, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: altair.crhc.uiuc.edu

In article <1992Aug22.161606.4519@midway.uchicago.edu>, sug6@usite-next.uchicago.edu (Patrick Sugent) writes:
|> 
|> 
|>   This was a little clip from Friday's Wall Street Journal.  
|> 
|> Pat
|> 
|> 
|> "At the Starting Gate"
|> 
|>   This is The Wall Street Journal's current analysis of November's
|> likely Electoral College results, state by state.  It presumes the
|> race will be close, with the winner topping the loser by no more
|> than three of four percentage points in the popular vote.  The analysis
|> reflects the calculations of the Bush and Clinton targeting strategists
|> and of independent analyst Charles Cook, as well as reporting by the
|> Journal.  Each state is followed by its number of electoral votes; to
|> win a candidate must get 270 votes.
|> 
|>      Bush States				Clinton States
|> 
|>      Texas		32			California	54
|>      Florida		25			New York	33
|>      New Jersey		15			Pennsylvania	23
|>      North Carolina	14			Massachusetts	12
|>      Georgia		13			Washington	11
|>      Virginia		13			Wisconsin	11
|>      Indiana		12			Tennessee	11
|>      Alabama		 9			Maryland	10
|>      Oklahoma		 8			Minnesota	10
|>      South Carolina	 8			Iowa		 7
|>      Arizona		 8			Oregon		 7
|>      Mississippi	 7			Arkansas	 6
|>      Kansas		 6			West Virginia	 5
|>      Utah		 5			Hawaii		 4
|>      Nebraska		 5			Rhode Island	 4
|>      Maine		 4			D.C.		 3 
|>      New Hampshire	 4                      Total          211
|>      Idaho		 4
|>      Nevada		 4
|>      Alaska		 3
|>      Wyoming		 3
|>      Delaware	 	 3
|>      North Dakota	 3
|>      Total             208
|> 
|> 
|>      Toss-Up States
|> 
|>      Illinois		22
|>      Ohio		21
|>      Michigan		18
|>      Missouri		11
|>      Louisiana		 9
|>      Connecticut	 8
|>      Kentucky		 8
|>      Colorado		 8
|>      New Mexico		 5
|>      Montana	 	 3
|>      South Dakota	 3
|>      Vermont	 	 3
|>      Total	       119
|> 

I think it is wishful thinking to include Illinois as a toss-up state.
Illinois is going Democrat, even if it is going to take a 105% turnout
in Chicago to do it (and it won't be necessary). The Clinton campaign 
AND the Carol Moseley Braun campaign have hooked up in a tag-team
strategy where the latter runson the former's coattails in downstate
Illinois where Clinton is popular because of the fact that many here 
hail from Missouri and Arkansas; and for Clinton to run on Braun's
coattails in the Chicago area, where a huge black and woman turnout
for her will add to Clinton's vote-totals. Add to that the fact that
Rich Daley (the Democratic Mayor of Chicago) perceives Braun as a 
potential threat to HIM, and the 105% thing might just come true. 
I expect Bush to get creamed here. He'll do better to concentrate `
on Pa., Mi., Wi. and Oh.

|> Patrick Sugent

-- 
Srinivas Sunder                                         sunder@crhc.uiuc.edu

If my employer shares these views, I'd be most surprised.
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