From: prem@prem.lbl.gov (xyz)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.indian
Subject: INDIA TODAY opinion Poll (Parts I and II)
Date: 12 Jan 1993 00:09:41 GMT
Organization: Human Genome Center at LBL
Distribution: world
Reply-To: y13rxb9@mp.cs.niu.edu
NNTP-Posting-Host: prem.lbl.gov

	Hi there folks,

	    I am posting this for a friend who does not have access to 
	posting on the net. I,  on the other hand, being Uncle Sam's minion, 
	and exercise the privilege frequently. Hey, it is just my way of 
	earning back my taxes.........

            Please address your responses/flames etc to y13rxb9@mp.cs.niu.edu

	Prem!
	prem@prem.lbl.gov

	    Anyway, here it is........
 
============================================================================  

      The Nationwide opinion polls conducted by INDIA TODAY - MARG has been
   reproduced here. This appeared in the Jan 15th issue of INDIA TODAY.
   
      ALL FIGURES ARE IN PERCENTAGE. Highlights are key statements picked out
   from the explanation given in INDIA TODAY for each poll option. Some 
   statements may be differently worded or shortened to save time and space.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
        IN the aftermath of the events in Ayodhya, INDIA TODAY
   commissioned MARG to conduct a nationwide opinion poll. To capture the
   current mood, more than 200 field workers from MARG travelled to 350
   locations spread across 35 parliamentary constituencies and interviewed
   12,592 registered voters between Dec 17th and 23rd.

        The poll findings are reported by PRANNOY ROY and MARG.

                           ELECTORAL POLL
                           --------------
                                1991            1992 
                              (Actual)*      (December forecast)
                               ---------------------------------
       Congress (I)              245             233
       BJP                       119             170
       Janata Dal                 55              35

        * includes by-election & Punjab results,figures are # of seats.

  Highlights :
          *  Cong (I) in an April 1992 poll was expected to win 290 seats.
          *  Major gains for BJP in the Hindi belt, especially UP.
          *  BJP would win less than 5 % of the seats in all Southern states.
          *  Earlier a predominantly urban party, BJP now has an equal share
             of the urban and rural vote.
          *  Women voters still prefer Cong (I).
          *  Brahmins are behind BJP, Kshatriyas & Vaishyas are split down 
             the middle. BC's, SC's & ST's predominantly support Cong (I)
             with one in five backing the National Front - Left combine.
          *  60 % of the Muslim voters are with Cong (I), rest with the
             National Front - Left combine.
          *  The non-BJP secular vote is sharply divided between the Cong(I)
             and the NF - Left combune. In UP for eg. with less than 40 % of
             the vote, the BJP could win over 80 % of the seats.


                        AYODHYA IS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR VOTERS.
                        -------------------------------------

     Major Issues          ALL INDIA       Cong(I)     BJP      Muslim
                                           voters     voters    voters
     -----------------------------------------------------------------
     Ayodhya/Communalism    | 43.7 |        39.0       52.6      55.6
                            |      |
     Inflation              | 25.3 |        26.9       21.1      18.6
                            |      |
     Unemployment           | 12.9 |        13.8       11.5      11.5
                            |      |
     Corruption             |  6.0 |         6.0        6.8       4.7
                            |      |
     Other                  |  9.1 |        11.8        5.1       7.5
                            |      |
     No Opinion             |  3.0 |         2.5        2.9       2.1

  Highlights :
          *  Today the recent events in Ayodhya are uppermost in voters minds,
             pushing the perennial factor, inflation to the second spot. The
             April 1992 poll showed Inflation as a 53 % factor - the number 
             one - and communalism a distant last at 11 %.
          *  Though Ayodhya tops the charts, inflation & unemployment add up
             to 38 % and are still strong factors.


                            DISSAPROVAL OF THE DEMOLITION
                            -----------------------------

                           Approve       Disapprove     No Opinion
                           ---------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA             | 39.3 |        | 52.6 |      |  8.1 |

     Cong(I) voters          26.9            65.1           8.0
     BJP voters              66.1            28.3           5.6

     Hindus                  43.5            47.7           8.8
     Muslims                 10.2            86.1           3.7

     North Zone              54.2            37.8           8.0
     South zone              16.7            70.8           12.5

  Highlights :
          *  Majority of respondents disapprove of the demolition, but the
             issue has truly divided the nation on political, religious and
             regional lines.
          *  Hindu views are fairly evenly divided. Muslims overwhelmingly
             disapprove. Interestingly about 10 % of the Muslims actually
             support the demolition.
          *  Strong disapproval in the South. The south statistics are closest
             to the Cong(I) voters disapproval, while north shows almost an
             equal affinity towards BJP voters feelings.


                      HOW COULD IT HAVE BEEN STOPPED ?
                      --------------------------------

                      UP Govt.       Taking       Preventing     Using
                      Dismissal     over site      assembly      force
                      ------------------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA         | 47.1 |      | 56.0 |       | 56.0 |     | 35.2 |

     Cong(I) voters      54.5          63.1           62.9         49.7
     BJP voters          32.9          43.9           44.0         22.4

     Hindus              43.9          54.0           53.4         32.1
     Muslims             72.5          70.5           76.6         59.9

     North zone          42.8          45.4           55.8         28.9
     South zone          56.2          65.3           60.4         44.8

  Highlights :
          *  Balance of opinion was that the Centre should have acquired
             the disputed land and tried to prevent the Kar sevaks from
             assembling at Ayodhya.
          *  All segments included, voters were opposed to any violence
             - lathi charges or firing - against the kar sevaks.


                        DID THE BJP BREAK THE LAW ?
                        ---------------------------

                        ALL INDIA      BJP voters    Muslims
                        ------------------------------------
     Yes                 | 52.9 |         34.1         74.3
     No                  | 29.6 |         54.0         12.8
     No opinion          | 17.5 |         11.9         12.9

  Highlights :
          *  Majority of voters say the BJP & the UP government broke the law.
          *  Even among BJP voters a third felt that their party and the state
             government had broken the law.


      * ALL FIGURES IN PERCENTAGE.


                            DECISION TO REBUILD MOSQUE
                            --------------------------

                           Approve       Disapprove     No Opinion
                           ---------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA             | 35.7 |        | 53.3 |      | 11.0 |

     Cong(I) voters          40.3            38.5          21.2 
     BJP voters              10.3            76.7          13.0 

     Hindus                  29.9            59.3          10.8
     Muslims                 78.3            11.6          10.1 

     North Zone              26.6            65.8           7.6 
     South zone              49.9            30.5          19.6

  Highlights :
          *  The decision to rebuild the mosque finds no favour with the
             electorate. The decision does have pockets of support - the
             Muslim voter & the southern voter.


                    APPROVAL FOR POST-DEMOLITION MEASURES
                    -------------------------------------

                      UP Govt.      Arrest of      Banning of     BJP Govt.
                      Dismissal     BJP leaders   organisations   dismissal
                      -----------------------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA         | 55.2 |      | 48.0 |       | 49.9 |       | 37.1 |

     Cong(I) voters      69.0          63.7           64.2           51.1
     BJP voters          29.4          17.5           22.8           11.8

     Muslims             85.3          84.4           80.9           76.7

     North zone          46.8          38.7           44.3           30.4
     South zone          70.6          70.9           69.3           50.6 

  Highlights :
          *  Voters supported the sacking of the UP govt, but clearly 
             condemned the dismissal of the BJP govts in other states.


                               WHAT SHOULD BE BUILT ?
                               ----------------------

                         Only      Temple &     Only    Temple &     No
                        Temple     Mosque      Mosque   Mosque     Opinion
                                   separate             together
                      -----------------------------------------------------
     ALL INDIA         | 22.0 |    | 22.1 |    | 7.5 |  | 36.9 |   | 13.5 |

     Cong(I) voters      13.7        17.3        8.9      48.0       12.1
     BJP voters          38.3        34.1        1.9      19.8        5.9

     Muslims              5.3         6.6       28.6      51.6        7.9 

     North zone          31.9        34.1        3.9      23.4        6.7
     South zone           8.9        13.7       13.0      46.7       17.7

  Highlights :
          *  To 37 % of the voters the most acceptable option was that the
             temple and the mosque be built side by side.
          *  The Govenments option of only a masjid at the site virtually
             finds no takers.
          *  The only-temple option finds great support in the north and among
             BJP backers, while Cong(I) voters, Muslims and the south prefer
             the 'unity' option.


                        WHO MAKES THE BEST PRIME MINISTER ?
                        -----------------------------------

                       ALL INDIA   BJP voters   Muslims   North   South
                       ------------------------------------------------
   P.V. Narasimha Rao   | 25.0 |     11.3        31.1     17.9    28.0
                        |      |
   A.B. Vajpayee        | 12.2 |     32.3         0.9     21.2     4.5
                        |      |
   V.P. Singh           |  8.2 |      2.3        21.7      9.2    11.1
                        |      |
   L.K. Advani          |  7.2 |     18.8         0.8     10.1     4.5
                        |      |
   Chandra Shekhar      |  1.9 |      1.4         0.8      3.0     1.0
                        |      |
   Sharad Pawar         |  1.9 |      1.5         1.2      0.3     1.1
                        |      |
   Arjun Singh          |  1.8 |      1.1         4.2      1.4     1.5
                        |      |
   Others               | 10.4 |      6.0         7.2     11.4     8.4
                        |      |
   No Opinion           | 31.4 |     25.3        32.1     25.5    39.9

  Highlights :
          *  The voters feel PVN is the best person to lead the nation - 
             he is backed by just a quarter of the electorate, with another
             one-third undecided.
          *  Among BJP voters Vajpayee is preferred by almost two-to-one over
             Advani.
          *  Muslim voters top two choices are PVN, whom the south prefers,
             and the Raja (V.P.Singh). 


Newsgroups: soc.culture.indian