From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 10:36:10 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)

     A new reporting format has been implemented which will replace the
     synoptical section of these daily activity summaries.  HF propagation
     information will be temporarily excluded from the reports until a
     suitable reporting system is established.  These changes have been
     implemented to increase the efficiency and improve the reliability of
     the reports.  These changes will also improve the regularity of
     delivery of these reports and help eliminate delays.

     The activity summaries for 07 through 09 November will be made
     available over the next 24 hours.  We apologize for the inconvenience
     this change-over may have caused in delaying the receipt of these
     reports.  Full regular service should return by 10 or 11 November.


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 311, 11/06/92
10.7 FLUX=132.9  90-AVG=124        SSN=116      BKI=1233 4322  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B4.3     FLU1=3.2E+06  FLU10=5.6E+05  PKI=1133 4332  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=008,010,036,020,046,023,012,014   DEV-AVG=021 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 1055UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.6   @ 1142UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2050UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 2150UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +1.4DB @ 1335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1620UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55427NT @ 0100UT   BOUTF-MIN=55405NT @ 1832UT  BOUTF-AVG=55417NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+092NT@ 1911UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-024NT@ 0740UT  G7-AVG=+068,+036,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1914UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-017NT@ 0054UT  G6-AVG=+085,-003,+034
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,140;SESC:135,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/020,015,015
    KFCST=1114 4100 0004 4000  27DAY-AP=009,016   27DAY-KP=1133 3223 2214 4443
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**PROTN10:ENDED@0010UTC;**245STRM:0907-2107UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. MOST OF TODAY'S LOW LEVEL
       FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FROM REGION 7334 (N13E60), A SMALL GROWING
       DAO SPOT GROUP. TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT WAS A C1/SF FLARE AT
       1055Z. REGION 7330 (S08E03) CONTINUES AS THE LARGEST GROUP ON
       THE DISK AT 450 MILLIONTHS AND SHOWS MODEST MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
       NEVERTHELESS THE REGION COULD ONLY MUSTER A COUPLE SUBFLARES
       DURING THE PERIOD. OBSERVATIONS ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB (AROUND
       S20) IN X-RAYS AND IN CALCIUM XV INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE
       OCCURING BEHIND THE LIMB.

            SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
       MOSTLY LOW, BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
       SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 7330 SHOWS THE MOST
       POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN M-CLASS EVENT. BACKGROUND LEVELS
       ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE INFERRED ACTIVE REGION
       BEHIND THE EAST LIMB ROTATES INTO VIEW.

            THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A
       PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS WITH HIGH LATITUDE MINOR STORM
       LEVELS OCCURRED FROM 1200-1500Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
       PROTON EVENT WHICH BEGAN ON 30 OCTOBER ENDED TODAY AT
       0010UT.

            GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
       EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IS-
       OLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
       CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED
       LEVELS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.

            EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV

                             CLASS M    25/25/25
                             CLASS X    05/05/05
                             PROTON     05/05/05
                             PCAF       GREEN

            GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV

                        A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                20/20/20
                        MINOR STORM           10/10/10
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
                        B.  HIGH LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                25/15/15
                        MINOR STORM           15/10/10
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7325  S16W65  334  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7326  S06W74  343  0150 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7330  S08E03  266  0450 EKI  11  038 BETA-GAMMA
7332  S22W54  323  0140 ESO  11  003 BETA
7334  N13E59  210  0190 DAO  09  007 BETA
7335  S17E63  206  0330 DAO  09  005 BETA
7324  N16W81  350                    PLAGE
7329  S16W27  296                    PLAGE
7333  N06E17  252                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 NOVEMBER TO 09 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7311 S17   168


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0910 0910 0910                          150
 0916 0917 0920                          110
 1727 1731 1733                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
66   N08W28 N08W28 N22W45 N27W34  318  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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