From: ndallen@r-node.gts.org (Nigel Allen)
Subject: Independent Petroleum Association Report Predicts Positive Outlook for 1993
Organization: Echo Beach, Toronto
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1992 23:19:46 GMT

Here is a press release from the Independent Petroleum
Association of America.

 Independent Petroleum Association Report Predicts Positive Outlook
for 1993
 To: Business Desk, Energy Writer
 Contact: Judy Leon or Jamie Bowers of the Independent Petroleum
          Association of America, 202-857-4722

   WASHINGTON, Nov. 12 -- The Independent Petroleum
Association of America's supply and demand committee released its
1992-93 supply and demand forecast predicting an upturn in economic
trends.
   "The domestic industry is poised for a healthy turnaround,"
said IPAA Vice-President of Economics Deborah Rowell. "This is
one of the most upbeat short-run forecasts the committee has
issued since the early 1980s."
   On the macroeconomic side, the committee foresees real economic
activity increasing by 2.7 percent in 1993, with inflation
remaining significantly below the standards of the past decade.
The group also predicted that unemployment has peaked, and will
decline next year.
   "There are still some problems on the extraction side," said
Rowell, "But hopefully if the positive economic trends continue the
drilling and production sectors will follow."
   Among the committee findings highlighted in the report:
   -- Improvement in the economy and an expected return to normal
weather patterns should lead to an increase in U.S. natural gas
consumption by nearly 4 percent both this year and in 1993.  The
projected 1992 level of nearly 20 Tcf would be the highest since
1979.
   -- Domestic natural gas production is forecast to rise to meet
the projected demand, but at slower rates.
   -- Natural gas imports, mainly from Canada, are expected to
continue rising to fill the supply gap.
   -- U.S. oil demand has reversed its two-year decline and should
increase slightly in 1992 and 1993.  But domestic crude oil
production will continue dropping; reaching 7 million barrels per
day in 1993 -- the lowest level in 30 years.
   All in all, the committee agreed that the market fundamentals
are strong and that next year should bring the long-awaited
industry turnaround.
  At its meeting on Oct. 28, 1992, the IPAA Supply and Demand
Committee reached the following conclusions concerning the level
and mix of overall energy use and their impact on the domestic
economy and the U.S. oil and natural gas industry for 1992 and
1993:

   -- Natural gas consumption is expected to rise by 3.7 percent in
1992, assuming normal weather for the fourth quarter of the year.
This level of nearly 20 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) would be the
highest since 1979.  With higher levels of economic activity and
assumed normal weather in 1993, natural gas consumption is projected
to increase by 3.9 percent next year to 20.7 Tcf.
   -- Natural gas production will rise to meet the projected
increase in demand, albeit at slower rates.  Domestic natural
gas output is anticipated to average 18.2 Tcf this year,
up 1.6 percent from 1991.  This should be followed by a 2.4
percent gain in 1993, with total production averaging 18.7 Tcf.
   -- U.S. natural gas imports, mostly from Canada, are expected to
reach a record high of 2 Tcf this year, which accounts for
approximately 10 percent of total U.S. gas consumption.  For 1993,
total natural gas imports are projected to average about 2.2 Tcf, an
8 percent increase from the expected 1992 level.
   -- Crude oil production is forecast to drop by 3.6 percent to
7.2 million barrels per day (MM b/d) in 1992.  There should
be an additional decline by 2.5 percent to 7 MM b/d in 1993,
reaching the lowest level in 30 years.
   -- A resumption in oil demand growth is anticipated in the future,
leading to increases in petroleum imports of 1.0 percent for 1992 and
5.1 percent for 1993.  Total oil imports are forecast to reach
7.7 MM b/d in 1992, which would comprise 46 percent of domestic
demand.  The committee expects total imports to exceed 8.0 MM
b/d in 1993, with the import dependency ratio climbing to
47 percent.
   -- U.S. petroleum demand is expected to reverse its two-year
downward trend, with respective growth rates in 1992 and 1993 of
1.2 percent and 1.1 percent.
   -- Domestic energy demand will rise by 2.1 percent in 1993, after
growing 1.4 percent in 1992.  The main factors are: 1) a somewhat
more rapid pace to the economic recovery, and 2) the expectation of a
return to normal weather.
   -- The U.S. economy is expected to grow at less than a 3 percent
annual rate until the spring of 1993.  However, inflation is expected
to average only 2.6 percent this year, rising to 3.1 percent in 1993,
as measured by the GDP price deflator.
 -30-
Newsgroups: sci.energy