From: 91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (roger maynard)
Subject: Re: Value of Stats
Organization: Dept. of Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, ON
Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1992 21:01:27 GMT

In <3811@blue.cis.pitt.edu.UUCP> dtate+@pitt.edu (David M Tate) writes:

>In article <1992Jul27.155847.9929@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca> 91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca (roger maynard) writes:

>RC/27 measures rate of production; RC measures total production.  Since this
>discussion was originally about who is the *better* player, and by how much,

"Better" as defined in the original discussion was the player who had
contributed the most to his team's success.

>Greg used RC/27 as the natural measure, since it doesn't penalize or reward
>a player for factors beyond his control, like how much playing time he gets.

As several other netters have pointed out RC/27 does penalize or reward the
full-time player against the platoon player.  And this is the case here.

>You seemed to be saying that the two were "comparable".  They aren't.  Greg
>said that Puckett's statistics were closer to those of Luis Salazar than they
>are to Barry Bonds.  He was right, whether you're talking rate of production
>or total production.
>
>If we use each player's batting average, OBP, and SLG to estimate the
>difference they would make in team run-scoring over the course of a season
>on an average team, and then adjust for actual playing time, we get what's
>called a "marginal lineup value" (MLV).  The units are "team runs above what
>an average offensive player would have produced".  If we then add in stolen
>base runs (at 0.3 runs per SB-2CS), we get an estimate of total offensive
>contribution to the team run-scoring effort, above or below average.  For
>1991, the relevant numbers are:

>       Bonds:          48.6 + 5.1 = 53.7 marginal runs
>       Puckett:        25.2 + 0.3 = 25.5 marginal runs
>       Salazar:         4.5 - 1.8 =  2.7 marginal runs

Go one step further and tell me what percentage of each team's total offensive
production each player made.  That is the issue here.

>Greg's original claim, that Puckett's stats are closer to Salazar's than they
>are to Bonds's, still holds true when you look at total contribution over the
>season.  Had Salazar played full-time, it would be even closer.

Well then show us the percentage of the teams offensive production that each
each player ACTUALLY MADE!  Furthermore I suggest that the number of players
whose MLV lies between Salazar and Puckett is FAR greater than the number of 
players between Bonds and Puckett.  Bonds had outstanding stats and Puckett 
had very good stats.  They are both among the elite.  Salazar is totally 
average.

>Now, if you think that Barry Bonds's attitude costs his teams more than the
>difference between Kirby Puckett last year and Luis Salazar last year, you're
>welcome to believe that.  I see no reason to agree with you, though.

No, I am saying that the sum of Bond's "attitude" + individual performance
COULD be less that the sum of Puckett's "attitude" + individual performance
when looked at as a percentage of team production as a whole.  We have no 
sure way of knowing.  I could care less about Salazar and I do not understand 
why he is even a part of this discussion.

>>The only time
>>comparing RC27, for the purpose of determining total offensive contribution,
>>is really useful is when the players have roughly equivalent total RC's.

>But we were originally talking about who was better, not about "total offensive
>contribution".  RC/27 is relevant (although I prefer other measures) any time

No we weren't.  We were talking about which player was best as defined by:
"who contributes the most to his team's quest for the WC."  Perhaps there 
has been a misunderstanding.

>>And
>>Puckett and Salazar don't.  Not even close.  And I don't even know why I have
>>to tell you this.
 
>You have to tell me because you changed the subject, from "who is the better
>player" to "who produced more total offense last season".

Maybe somebody changed the subject but I am sure it wasn't me.

rm


-- 
roger maynard                    
91287041@ramsey.cs.laurentian.ca
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball