From: wft@math.canterbury.ac.nz (Bill Taylor)
Subject: South Africa, Australia, New Zealand.
Organization: Department of Mathematics, University of Canterbury
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1992 04:42:16 GMT

South Africa
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Well, at last the long-considered question of just how good they are seems
to have been comprehensively answered. Opinion has been steadily accumulating
that their long isolation had had a severe effect, and now it has proven to
be so. Before their Northern tour began, I had suggested that they may be
4th best in the world now, behind England by a silvery thread.

Well it now appears that the thread was a fairly sturdy piece of rope !

I think the one-test-each result against France, and the 33-16 drubbing by
England are both reasonably indicative of the true situation.  Perhaps England
were a little flattered by the score, but *only* a little, if at all; based
on what I saw of the game. Indeed the only real "flattery" that has occurred
since S.A. rejoined the international circuit, was in their game against the
All Blacks. There they were well and truly beaten by a big margin, but a
combination of AB tiredness, easing-off due to a certain result, and a *very*
long injury-time, allowed the boks to squeak home with a respectable-looking
loss. Subsequent events have proved how woefully inadequate this assessment was.

It is clear, I think, that S.A. are nowhere near the 3rd best (i.e. England).
Indeed, I think they would lose to Scotland right now; and might have a tough
time with Ireland or Wales, even, (though they would win these). So it
seems their placing is FIFTH EQUAL; alongside France, (after Scotland).

Why have they declined so ? It is not due to lack of commitment or talent,
obviously. The depth of their talent is still unrivalled, except perhaps by
New Zealand.  It is obviously their techniques and tactics that are deficient;
and these are more due to inadequacy of coaches rather than players.

Specifically; much has been said, all true, about their poor forward play
technique. Not just in line-outs, (oh my, they'll just *have* to stop that
lifting, or they'll cut their own throats); but also in loose play, as the
possession advantage figures clearly show from Bruce Beadle's helpful post.
But I would like to highlight another facet of their play which has received
far less attention, but is equally culpable.

That is, in their back play from set pieces. In all their internationals, as
in their Currie cup matches that I've seen, the backs rely *almost entirely*
on chip-kicks and chases to go for tries. The number of running attempts at
breakthroughs has been very small, (and almost entirely ineffective). It is sad
to see how a once dynamic national pattern has faded away into this dreary
predictability. In this respect they lag streets behind France, Australia,
New Zealand, and even England. The decisive and penetrating running game
that all these other countries are capable of is nowhere to be seen on the
South African scene.

IMHO this is one of the most urgent matters for their coaching staff to tackle.

Australia & New Zealand
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So at last we come to the matter of the top two teams in the world. Another
flame war is bursting out over whether Oz is really number one, and if so by
how much. Can we say one thing outright - as far as I'm aware no-one, not
even the most one-eyed Kiwi supporter has ever suggested, from the world cup
till now, that they are not the best. The only question is by how much.

These shouting matches are pretty silly, but hey!, when has that ever stopped
us before ?

>I saw the first two games, and it would have been fairly unjust if NZ
>had won either of them.

This is plain crazy ! Australia had the run of the luck there, as I posted at
great length at the time. Both games were as close as they could be, both in
scores *and* in opportunities. Only the 3rd game, (close as the score also
was), was a clear-cut result in favour of the winner.   I, and many others,
made these points at some length when these events took place. Of course
we're only one-eyed kiwi supporters; but dare I say that some of us produce
more well-informed and thoughtful commentary than many others on the net ?

>>and the Aussies were too polite to crow.

This comment has already been suitably flamed...

>A great example of an oxymoron, if ever I heard one!

....though perhaps it's going a little far to call them oxen or morons.  ;-)
The fact that the Aussies didn't crow shows clearly that they had precious
little to crow about !

>If I make so bold, I think the Australian side that won the World Cup
>was by far the best side in the world.

Agreed; and I think that their respective results against S.A. confirmed that
they are still better than NZ; but that the gap has narrowed enormously, as the
Bledisloe matches indicated. But, as Bruce Beadle most tellingly continues...

>I would venture to suggest that Australia does not
>posess anywhere near the strength in depth of, say, New Zealand.

...and this is indeed the heart of the matter. This crop of injuries has been
----------------------. devastating. Though they will still probably win
                      | against Wales, it is, as someone said, significant
          \           | that people can raise the possibility of an upset
           \          | without being laughed out of court.   Wales, indeed !
           \\         |
            \\        | New Zealand has suffered injury problems just as
             )`--')   | great on recent tours, but they have never left the
            <  o /    | seeming disarray that we've got here. No satisfactory
             `\  /    | rearrangements on the spot; and no suitable replacements
              / /     | in sight.
         /_,, ~~      |         BEWARE OZ; 1993 Bledisloe will be your Waterloo !
        /   )         |=======================================================
        |  /          |
       /  _>    <-------- Bill Taylor         wft@math.canterbury.ac.nz
      /  /            |
     /   |            |=======================================================
    |    /            |
    \___/             |Of COURSE you're entitled to your own opinions,
      o               |            just keep them to yourself.
                      |=======================================================