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Date:         Wed, 11 Nov 1992 02:14:14 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Bosnia and Macedonia, (#790)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
              christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu, 76701.103@compuserve.com

Russia-

Russia announced today, NPR reported, that it was sending more troops
into Ingushetia today, after a report yesterday indicated that over
11,000 troops are already in Ossetia. 200 at the least have been
reported killed in the brawl between Ossetia and Ingushetia, the
latter bitter condemning Russian involvement in the conflict,
claiming the Russians are helping the Ossetians.

Both NPR and BBC today reported on Yeltsin's visit to London, where
he claimed "military adventurists" and elements of "the right wing"
WERE plotting to overthrow the Yeltsin government. He made it clear
he WOULD use emergency powers to rule the country by Presidential
decree if he was forced to. In his "ringing speech" (BBC) to the
Parliament Gorbachev never addressed, Yeltsin is reported as saying
he would defend the rights of the 25 million Russians now minorities
in the other nations of the CIS, and "condemned efforts to make
Russians 2nd class citizens," a pointed remark directed at the Balts.
He had halted Russian troop withdrawals on the grounds that the
Russian minorities in the 3 Baltic states were being treated badly by
the respective Baltic governments just before leaving for London.

NPR reported this morning that now more than 400 rubles equalled one
dollar, though an exact figure wasn't named.

Bosnia-

Two convoys carry roughly 6000 refugees, one headed to Belgrade and
one to Split, in Croatia, both were bogged down. Buses failed to come
for the Belgrade-bound refugees, and bus drivers were reported as
stating that they would not drive because they had assurances from
the various militias that they would be allowed to return (and
apparently not much assurance that naught would happen to them going
TO Belgrade. Meanwhile, the other convoy, some 14 buses strong, made
it 18 miles out of Sarajevo, and was halted by Serb irregulars.

Once again, a truce has been signed by all sides, to go into effect
midnight tonight local time. Once again, the Serbs suggested a plan
to divide Bosnia. Once again, the Moslems refused. It was stated on
the BBC that Croatia controlled 25% of Bosnia, the Serbs 70%, all
that the Moslems controlled was "a few towns," including, apparently,
Sarajevo.

Macedonia-

Albania formally protested the killing of 4 Albanians in disturbances
this past weekend, I think in Skopje, the capital city. Several
others were arrested. Macedonian leaders again called for
international recognition of their country (now recognized, as I
recall, by only 15, including Russia) because of the rising ethnic
tensions, and apparent military interest by Greece, Bulgaria, Albania
and Turkey (who became the first NATO power to do an arms deal with
the Russians yesterday - $75 million in copters and Russian tanks, I
think).


The situation in Russia is VERY hard to read. I heard that Jeffrey
Sachs of Harvard is quite disappointed in the Russian recovery
effort, Khasbulatov and a deputy Prime Minister are publicly at each
other's throats, with the latter accusing Parliamentary Speaker
Khasbulatov of "disrupting the country," and endangering Russia's
future. There appear a great many factions, it's hard to see how
many, and they are all headed in different directions. The military
is unsettled, stretched thin, with troops in the Baltics, Dushanbe,
eastern Moldova, north Ossetia, Abkhazia, Ingushetia, and in various
border areas, while groups like Pamyat raid newspapers hostile to
them, hyperinflation and rapidly rising prices are occurring, plus
the  ruble plunging now to over 400 to the dollar. A complicated
mosaic, and the upcoming Congress of People's Deputies on 1 December
may be the event that cracks the mosaic drastically.

Also, the continued Serb interference with legitimate refugee efforts
is more evidence of "criminal behavior" in another nation, and
further buttresses a quietly growing belief that serious war crimes
have happened in Bosnia. Winter is nigh upon Sarajevo, why mistreat
folks trying to flee both winter AND a brutal six month's siege
nobody seems capable of stopping.

But, Russia and its various entanglements and potential problems
presents even a greater risk if it were to come unglued, OR move
towards "dictatorship." Such choices the world, the Russians and the
Bosnians get to have, eh? VMS