From: laws@ai.sri.com (Kenneth I. Laws)
Newsgroups: comp.ai
Subject: Re: AI Winter Refugees
Date: 27 Aug 92 07:21:00 GMT
Followup-To: comp.ai
Organization: Computists International
In-reply-to: vere@netcom.com's message of 25 Aug 92 03:47:35 GMT

> From Steven Vere:
> Countervaling views  are welcome, but please be prepared to explain
> the following phenomena: near-zero employment opportunities advertised
> in AI Magazine and similar forums; near-zero recruiting at recent AAAI
> conferences; major  declines   in  attendance at AAAI   over the  past
> several years.

Hi, Steve!

I second comments by Roberto Desimone, and stand in awe
of Bill Park's essay.  My own take on this is that we don't
have an AI Winter.  The original AI Winter, after the Lighthill
report, shut down AI research in most of the UK (and drove
Prolog researchers to the U.S.)  When AI sprang back to life,
there was a "gold rush" of schools, corporations, military
services, and individuals trying to enter the field early.

What we have now is merely a shakeout, or perhaps even the
beginnings of a steady state.  NSF's AI budget, although small,
continues to increase.  There have been no massive cuts at
ONR, AFOSR, or NASA, so far as I know.  The famous pioneers,
or publishing scientists, of a decade ago are mostly still
employed (and calling each other AAAI Fellows).  AI journals
and books are published at an incredible rate, and there are
too many conferences, workshops, and symposia for us to even
read the calendar notices.  Universities everywhere now have
AI professors and turn out AI-interested graduates in great
numbers.  (That wasn't true ten years ago.)  AI tools are
easily available -- your choice: public domain (by FTP or
CD ROM), shareware, or commerically supported.  Applications
conferences are hot, and are well reported in the press.  PBS
just showed a series on computers and AI, and AI stories are
common in newspapers and business magazines.  This is not an
AI Winter.  It feels more like late Spring.

So why aren't there jobs?  Well, the recession is certainly
a factor.  So is the defense drawdown.  (Defense R&D is predicted
to be little effected, but even so the industry is waiting for
new fiscal-year money.)  DARPA cut back in neural-network
research (although other agencies took up the slack); perhaps
there have been other government cutbacks that I haven't tracked.
There is certainly more emphasis on near-term results, but I'm
not sure that has reduced total R&D spending.

The real change has been in corporate AI.  First, we've exceeded
the three-year time frame that new labs were permitted.  Second,
we've already sold to anyone who was interested in buying.  And
third, business has learned that it doesn't need what we're
selling.  Companies are desperate for competitive advantage and
survival, and only a few financial company see AI as offering
immediate payback comparable to other management options.

What we have here is a simple case of oversupply.  We have
produced more graduates and more consultants than the saturated
market can support.  Those who are employed are hanging on
tight, so there are no job openings due to churning.  Consultants
and tools are plentiful, so new job slots can be filled with
cheap labor -- recent graduates, or even AI wannabees -- and an
occasional training session or consulting contract.  A few more
slots will open up as new vertical applications are attempted,
but that happens less often than labs close down or jobs are
eliminated.

One begins to appreciate the genius of the American Medical
Association in limiting the number of U.S. doctors.

I'm afraid we're going to have to live with it.  If jobs are
attractive, supply will be plentiful and wages for most will
be low.  The laws of economics are the same for AI researchers
as for athletes, actors, artists, professors, and librarians.

					-- Ken
--

Dr. Kenneth I. Laws, (415) 493-7390, laws@ai.sri.com.
Moderator of the Computists International AI/IS/CS mutual-aid association.
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Newsgroups: comp.ai