From: barnhart@ddsw1.MCS.COM (Mr. Aaron Barnhart)
Subject: IPS:KENYA: ELECTIONS THREATEN TO PROVOKE CIVIL WAR
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1992 01:22:50 GMT
Organization: Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.

Copyright Inter Press Service 1992, all rights reserved.  Permission to re-
print within 7 days of original date only with permission from 'newsdesk'.

Area: Asia, eastern
Title: KENYA: ELECTIONS THREATEN TO PROVOKE CIVIL WAR


an inter press service feature

by james m. dorsey

kisii, kenya, dec 16 (ips) -- this month's general elections
threaten to throw kenya into a severe constitutional crisis and
protracted ethnic conflict that could disrupt the east african
country's social fabric, according to local observers.

amid mounting charges of government-inspired rigging of the
first multiparty elections since kenya got independence 29 years
ago, kenyans appear to be re-emphaisizing their tribal roots.

months of ethnic tensions that have erupted into violence
raise doubts whether concepts of democracy are widely understood
among the eight million voters preparing to go to the polls on
december 29.

western donors, including the united states, canada and the
european community, forced kenyan president daniel arap moi a
year ago to allow the formation of political parties in his
country, by making further development aid contingent on the
holding of free and fair elections.

the ambassadors of canada, denmark, germany, sweden and the
u.s. on dec. 12 demonstratively walked out of an independence
day rally in nairobi, attended by moi, charging that it had been
turned into a political gathering for the ruling kenya african
national union (kanu) rather than a national celebration.

''most kenyans don't want a multiparty system. they feared
there would be problems. the ethnic clashes were the first
result... thousands of people have been expelled from their
homes and their jobs ... we're not heading for a healthy
situation. this could result in civil war'', says catholic
bishop tiberius mugendi of kisii in western kenya.

''neither the government nor the opposition is prepared for
democracy. here is a situation where the government does not
believe in having an opposition as such'',  says george anyona,
leader of the opposition kenya social congress.

''here are opposition parties whose leadership does not
really believe or understand the philosophical argument for
opposition as a necessary ingredient of good governance, but see
it as an alternative power base. here is a situation in which
the population has never participated in governance'', he adds.

widespread government corruption as well as the favouring of
kanu's ethnic base, the kalenjin, a collection of smaller ethnic
groups, have turned many kenyans against the moi regime.
(more/ips)


kenya: elections (2)

''moi can say what he likes, it means nothing to the people
now. kenyans are surprised that kanu has become allergic to the
truth. i can tell you, the party is really not popular. if they
win, it will be only by election rigging'', mugendi says.

with the kenyan constitution silent on how to handle
stalemated elections, in which either no presidential candidate
wins the necessary majority or no party is capable of forming a
government on its own, kenya may be heading toward a
constitutional vacuum.

despite vows that it is committed to the holding of free and
fair elections, kanu is showing signs of concern that this
month's election result may not be to its liking.

backed by the government, kanu is employing tactics --
intimidation of opposition candidates, falsification of election
registration lists, dispersal of government funds on behalf of
kanu -- across the country which raise serious questions about
the honesty of the forthcoming polls.

commonwealth observers have called for an investigation of
the process of nomination of election candidates.

''people are afraid that their houses will be burnt (if moi
loses election). we fear there will be civil war here. the
kipsigis (ethnic group) will start a war'', zedekiah k. mwangi,
a democratic party official in the western town of kericho told
representatives of the washington-based international republican
institute (iri), in kenya to observe the elections.

fearing for their political life, moi and his party are
likely to resort to any methods to retain power. opposition
candidates have been prevented from holding rallies and harassed
in attempts to force them to withdraw their candidacies.

officials of ''youth for kanu '92'', a moi-inspired lobby,
make no bones about the amounts of government money they are
throwing into the campaign. the lobby's executive officer in
kericho district, david waitage, says he has dispersed five
million shillings (150,000 dollars) sponsoring sport clubs and
paying for people's hospital bills and school fees.

''it's just a campaign weapon. the vote is the payback'',
waitage says.

iri observers in eldoret discovered widespread registering of
kanu supporters as voters in more than one district. ''an
examination of the registers showed a clear effort to double
register kanu supporters across constituency lines'', said
edward stewart, iri's regional programme director.
(end/ips/jmd/ar/92)