From: trh@jack.sns.com (Al Trh)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.turkish
Subject: TRH News 2
Date: 3 Oct 1992 04:42:43 -0500
Organization: UTexas Mail-to-News Gateway
Reply-To: Turkish Cultural Program List <TRKNWS-L%USCVM.BitNet@pucc.PRINCETON.EDU>
NNTP-Posting-Host: cs.utexas.edu

TRH News Part 2

    TURKS AND KURDS WEIGH UP ODDS ON MILITARY COUP
    ISTANBUL (SEPT. 28) - Twice before toppled from power by
his own army, Turkish Prime Minister Sulyman Demirel shrugs
off persistent speculation that a third coup is imminent
under cover of continuing violence in the Kurdish areas of
southeast Turkey.
    "You must not over-emphasize the rumors," Demirel told
journalists yesterday. "I feel ashamed to face such
gossiping in a democratic country." He was careful to
repudiate talk of a split between his government and the
army.
    "There is not such thing as 'a military authority,'" he
said. "The only authority in Turkey is the government." But
the army has intervened three times since the founding of
Turkey's modern parliamentary democracy in 1950 --in 1960
and twice to topple a Demirel government, in 1971 and 1980.
    In 1980 the civil violence between right and left
factions was the justification if not the reason for the
coup. In 1992 Turkey's southeastern provinces are torn by
fighting between government forces and the Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK).
    Officially the conflict has this year claimed the lives
of over 360 of the security forces and 962 PKK guerrillas.
The civilian cost is high -- the murder of 74-year-old
Kurdish intellectual, journalist and politician Musa Anter
last week was the 180th civilian killing in the eight year
war. There have been over 200 assassinations by unknown
death squads and a number of sabotage bombings in Istanbul,
adding to the atmosphere of tension.
    However the main motive for the 1980 coup -- a general
economic crisis -- is less evident in increasingly affluent
Turkey.
    Economic analyst Mustafa Sonmez, chief of the research
department of the Progressive Workers Trade Union
Confederation (DISK) said the coup was a reaction to out of
date economic policy. "The main thing was the bottleneck in
hard currency and never ending strikes. Besides, foreign
capital investments were hindered by countless bureaucratic
procedures."
    But in the 12 years since most controls on domestic and
foreign capital investments have been eliminated, initially
under military pressure and later civilian governments, in a
bid to integrate Turkey with the world economy.
    "No problems for growth arise from these obstacles any
more, (problems) which could lead the business community to
encourage a military takeover as it did in 1980," he says.
    Kemal Nebioglu, chairperson of DISK adds: "Furthermore,
during military rule, employers have gained the maximum
possible legislative authority over their employees.
    "They (the employers) themselves even could not imagine
the extent of their gains. Therefore they have no need to
encourage a military takeover in order to cut down workers'
advantages."
    But even the coup leaders' "pretext" of imminent civil
war in 1980 does not exist now, even allowing for the
conflict in the southeast, says Nebioglu.
    "The only pretext for a coup d'etat could be the
prevailing unrest in the Kurdish provinces. But that would
only inflame the disturbances rather than suppressing it,"
says Gani Mujde, a 34- year-old political cartoonist.
    "In 1980 they exploited people's fears for their lives -
- now they are feeding fears of the dismemberment of the
country. But this is not enough for the people to side with
the military.
    "Therefore they are provoking terror to force the people
to call them to power " said.
    The theory was recently taken up by an editorial in the
Daily Zaman newspaper, known for its Islamicist sympathies;
it regarded the recent escalation in terrorist attacks in
Istanbul as suspicious.
    Nearly every major event of terrorism coincides with a
meeting of Turkey's national security council, and none of
Istanbul blasts caused any casualties, it noted. Based on
this the paper theorized that the whole campaign was being
manipulated by the government and "society is forcibly being
drawn to the opinion that nothing but a military alternative
exists for strong government."
    However Ramazan Ulek, a pro-Kurd intellectual and one of
the publishers of the daily paper Ozgur Gundem still
believes the speculation of an imminent coup as "something
crazy."
    "Turkey is already under 'military rule,' accomplished
by the coup of 1980 and still remains intact," he said. "The
government has also left the solution in Kurdistan to the
army itself. The army is bound by no laws and no political
obstacles.
    Ulek -- who has lost his top columnist, Musa Anter, and
three reporters to assassins in the last eight months --
believes that fear of a civil war is being exploited by the
armed forces to silence public discontent with the army's
tactics and human rights abuses in the southeast.
    "The army has already driven the government out of
control," he says, "and is utilizing all kind of illegal
means. They need no coup to go on like that."
    Ulek further theorized that President Turgut Ozal -- no
friend of Demirel's --had his own plans. "Ozal will provoke
a coup among the junior officers, quell them easily and then
take power with pledges for the rights for Kurds," he
speculates. "The same technique as Yeltsin used in Russia."
    However many ordinary people, comparing the peace and
comfort in the west with the repression and unrest in the
southeast are increasingly in favor of negotiation, not
military intervention.
    "A coup would be of no use to stop the violence in the
southeast," says Muge Gelen, a 34-year-old civil servant in
Istanbul. "They (the military) already have all the power in
their hands. They do everything.
    "Yet the strife in the southeast is going on for eight
years -- if a coup was needed why did not they do it before?
The only solution is not a coup but to negotiate with Apo
(PKK chief Abdullah Ocalan)."
    The collapse of the USSR means that the army can no
longer defend a coup --either at home or abroad -- as
"defense against Soviet expansionism." Furthermore a coup
would only further taint Turkey's European reputation --
particular on human rights issues.
    "A coup needs foreign support, and in today's world no
great power will support a military takeover," says Melda
Yesilova, a 23-year- old secretary.

    FIGHTING BETWEEN TURKISH FORCES, KURDISH REBELS
REPORTEDLY LEAVES 100 DEAD
    ANKARA (SEPT. 29) - About 100 people were reported
killed Tuesday in heavy fighting between Turkish security
forces and guerrilla fighters of the Kurdish Workers' Party
(PKK) in eastern and southeastern Turkey.
    The majority died in rebel attacks on three army posts
which began in the early morning hours near Semdinli, in
Hakkari province along the Turkish-Iraqi border. Security
forces in Diyarbakir said 53 PKK guerrillas, 23 soldiers and
five village guardsmen loyal to the government were killed.
    In Ankara, Interior Minister Izmet Sezgin said between
300 and 400 rebels armed with rocket launchers, flame
throwers, machine guns and bombs had penetrated into Turkey
from Iraqi territory to attack the army posts.
    Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel had earlier refused to
comment in detail on reports of heavy fighting between the
Turkish military and Kurdish guerrillas. He merely said he
was aware of the incident.
    According to further official reports, a mother and
seven children were killed by Kurdish separatists late
Monday in a mountain village in Van province. Village guards
called in to help killed two PKK guerrillas.
    Ten people were killed in attacks on two other mountain
villages late Monday, including three village guards, a
child and five women.

    AZERBAIJAN AND TURKEY WARN LACK OF WESTERN AID MAY OPEN
DOOR TO IRAN
    BAKU, AZERBAIJAN (SEPT. 29) - Azerbaijan and Turkey are
warning that a Western failure to support efforts by former
Soviet Muslim republics to establish democracy and free-
market economies could lead to an Iranian-inspired Islamic
fundamentalist backlash in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
    "We need democracy, we are struggling for it. But there
are such strong reactionary forces against us so that if the
West does not help us, democracy (in Azerbaijan) could be
toppled," says President Abul Fez Elchibey, hinting that
Iran is trying to take advantage of Baku's economic crisis
worsened by its four-year-old war against neighboring
Armenia.
    Large numbers of Azeris mill around in an Iranian
bookshop in downtown Baku featuring huge portraits of
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his successor Ayatollah Ali
Sayed Khamenei.
    The bookshop offers religious texts, including the
radical writings of Iranian philosopher Ali Shariati and
volumes filled with documents found during the 1979
occupation of the U.S. embassy in Teheran.
    Azeris pride themselves on being an enlightened Muslim
nation, the first to move from Arabic to Latin script until
the Soviet Union earlier this century stipulated the use of
Cyrillic.
    They also note that men and women, contrary to many
Islamic societies, enjoy full equality in Azerbaijan.
"Feminism in the Islamic world began in Azerbaijan," says
Ralph Asadov of the Center for Strategic Studies and a staff
aide to parliament's foreign relations committee.
    At the same time should you scratch beneath the surface
of many Azeris by asking if they want the country fully
integrated into Europe rather than Central Asia and the
Middle East, they complain that they are being ignored by
the West because they are Muslims.
    "We were treated second rate when we were part of the
Soviet Union. Now the West simply doesn't care and looks the
other way. Only because we are Muslims. If this continues
and there is no end to the war, we will have no choice but
to turn to the fundamentalists for help," says a senior
Elchibey aide.
    Turkish diplomats argue that their efforts to match
Iranian and also Saudi efforts to penetrate the Caucasus and
Central Asia, represents the West's only serious investment
in the region.
    "If Turkey were not doing certain things on its own, I
don't think that Western aid would be available on time.
Iran is incredibly aggressive and Russia won't be able to
fill the vacuum for a while," one diplomat said.
    Accusing Iran of using threats and blackmail to shape
domestic events in various Caucasian and Central Asian
nations, another diplomat said: "Azerbaijan is always scared
of Iran, its a power to reckon with, it can destroy the
ethnic identity of the (estimated 20 million Azeris in
Iranian) southern Azerbaijan."
    According to the diplomats, during a visit to Teheran in
March, former Azeri President Ayaz Mutalibov was warned by
Iranian President Hashemi Ali Akbar Rafsanjani against
moving into the Turkish sphere of influence.
    They said that a few months later when Mutalibov was
under siege from Elchibey's Popular Front, Iranian money and
intelligence was put at the former Communist President's
disposal while pro-Iranian groups hit the streets to give
him support.
    "We want stability in the Caucasus. We are worried that
problems in the Caucasus will drag Turkey in physically and
threaten our backyard. That's why we provide assistance to
anybody, including Iran," one of the Turkish diplomats said.
    Turkish efforts are also said to be designed to prevent
right-wing Turkish groups like the Grey Wolves of Turkesh
from gaining influence in the region. Turkesh enjoys great
popularity in Azerbaijan, according to Thomas Goltz, a
Western writer and scholar who specializes in Turkey, the
Caucasus, and Central Asia.
    But, said a Turkish diplomat: "The republics are coming
to us. They ask for credits, trade, training facilities. We
are suddenly filling the vacuum left behind by the demise of
the Soviet Union.
    "We are doing things the Russians used to do. Last week
I had the cartographers here. They used to send their people
for free to Moscow for training. Now Moscow is demanding
$5,000 per student per year. In Turkey its for a free."
    Officials estimate that 10,000 students from the
Caucasus and Central Asia will this year attend Turkish
schools and universities. In six former Soviet republics,
the entry exams were similar to those in Turkey itself. From
Azerbaijan alone, 900 high school and 900 university
students were reportedly selected.
    "It's beyond logic, its stupid. It would have been
better to select 100 good students. But its a very
aggressive program initiated by Prime Minister Suleyman
Demirel. Azerbaijan was ready to send 200 students, but when
Demirel was here he said: "Send me 2,000'."

    RUSSIA TO TAKE LEAD IN WORSENING ETHNIC CONFLICTS
    MOSCOW (SEPT. 29) - Russian involvement in controlling
the outbreak of conflicts in the volatile Caucasian region
is increasing as the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) fumbles for a peacekeeping solution.
    After last year proclaiming their independence, the ex-
Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are back
in the Russian sphere of influence with Moscow once again
playing a key role in resolving their crises.
    A CIS summit is to be held in the Kyrghyz capital of
Bishkek on Oct. 9, and the gathering will continue
discussions on the cr}ation of a joint peacekeeping force
and the conditions for its dispatch.
    This item has also been on the group's agenda at its
previous meetings --without a decision being taken. But with
the internecine conflict escalating sharply in the Central
Asian Republic of Tajikistan, Russia is likely to take a
firmer line.
    Already Moscow has stationed peacekeepers in Armenia and
Azerbaijan -- albeit under the logistical cover of the CIS.
    It is "high time" to stop the fighting between Armenia
and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-
Karabakh, said Russian Defense Minister General Pavel
Grachev, in a statement on Russian television last night.
    Hopes for an end to the four-and-a-half years of
fighting over the mountainous region are now being pinned on
a Russian initiative. If it fails, Grachev has warned of
United Nations intervention.
    The first group of Russian observers who are travelling
to the disputed region  arrived in the Azerbaijani capital
of Baku today. The group is to monitor an agreed upon two-
month ceasefire which took effect on Sept. 25, although Baku
has accused Yerevan of breaking the truce.
    However, Lieutenant-General Leonid Ivashov, secretary of
the council of CIS defense ministers, today told the Russian
Itar-Tass news agency in Moscow that Armenia and Azerbaijan
were indeed taking steps to guarantee the implementation of
a ceasefire.
    In all, 50 Russian officials protected by Russian
troops, will monitor the truce. None of the previous
ceasefire agreements have been kept. Belarus, Georgia,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine are also expected to contribute to
the contingent of peacekeeping observers.

    ONE TIME SECRET PARTY FINDING PUBLIC FACE IN ARMENIA
    YEREVAN (SEPT. 29) - Its leaders often refuse to reveal
their party affiliation; the government claims it is a front
for the KGB and its Russian successor; critics charge that
its adventurism endangers the very existence of the Armenian
state.
    Yet the party in question -- Dashnaktsutiun (Armenian
Revolutionary Federation) stands a reasonable chance of
returning to power -- 72 years after it governed a briefly
independent Armenia between 1918 and 1920 and four years
after it returned to a country just seceded from the
disintegrating Soviet Union.
    And with a planned (Sept. 26) ceasefire in the four year
conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in doubt, the party's role in
formulating policy and fomenting nationalist resistance is
crucial.
    Founded in 1890 as a socialist party with a radical
nationalist program and forced into exile after the
incorporation of eastern Armenia into the Soviet Union, the
opposition Dashnaktsutiun are seen as Armenia's most popular
political force.
    Publisher of the country's most glossy and largest
newspapers, Dashnaktsutiun, according to recent opinion
polls enjoys 37 percent support compared to Armenian
President Levon Ter Petrossian's ruling All Armenian
National Movement.
    Concerned about the strength of the party which enjoys
substantial funding from wealthy Armenians abroad, Ter
Petrossian moved in July to prevent the party from holding
its first congress in Armenia since the beginning of the
century by expelling its leader Hrair Markian on the grounds
that he was a Lebanese national, a KGB agent and an
undesirable alien.
    "That move not only violated democracy but also the
human and national rights of the Armenians," said Ruben
Hovesepian, the Dashnak leader within Armenia. "We offered
from the outset to cooperate with Ter Petrossian -- it is
his fault that it did not come about. But even now we are
willing to cooperate."
    A new generation politician who rose to power on a wave
of nationalist cries to reunify Armenia and the disputed
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh -- an Armenian dominated
territory inside Azerbaijan -- Ter Petrossian's fears are
real.
    Only history will tell just how crucial Dashnaktsutiun's
role was in fomenting the four year old war with Azerbaijan
-- a war that it is incapable of winning and which could
devastate it economically.
    But four years after reestablishing itself on Armenian
territory Dashnaktsutiun has yet to shed the traditional
"underground" mentality of the movement in exile and
transform itself into a conventional party within a nation
state.
    Nagorno-Karabakh Supreme Soviet president Artur
Makrtchian made history in February 1988 when under his
leadership the council called for Nagorno-Karabakh to be
united with Armenia. Within days Azerbaijanis were attacking
Armenians in Baku while Armenians in Yerevan staged massive
street demonstrations. Hostilities between the two began
within months.
    An official of the former Soviet regime, Makrtchian's
true Dashnak political allegiance only came to light after
his death in mysterious circumstances last April.
Dashnaktsutiun made up the initial core of Armenian
resistance to Azeri attempts to regain control over the
enclave, but prefer not to advertise this.
    "It doesn't matter which party started the national
liberation movement," says Hovesepian. "That is not
important here. It doesn't matter to Dashnaktsutiun what
party is in power."
    With Markian as undisputed leader Dashnaktsutiun is led
by a seven man bureau headquartered in Greece. Despite its
history as the leaders of the 1918 republic and defenders of
Karabakh, it still caters to the diaspora's "west Armenians"
-- descendants of the refugees from the genocidal Turkish
attacks of 1915 -- and the "east Armenians" those who are
emerging from 70 years of Soviet rule.
    Its call for Turkish acknowledgement of the genocide --
Turkey denies that 1.5 million Armenians were killed by
Turkish forces in 1915 -- and its demand for the return to
Armenia of large areas of eastern Turkey that were formerly
dominated by Armenian populations, have a emotive appeal to
many Armenians.
    But despite this the Dashnaktsutiun is still viewed by
Armenians as a diaspora movement.
    "Dashnak's image gained from their support for
Karabakh.," said Artasher Enim, a representative of Canada's
Armenian population. "It has kept it going."
    But he said that thought the party was now the only real
alternative to the present Armenian regime is Dashnak, they
were not ready to take power. "It will happen when they
(Dashnak) become more local in a few years."