From: sjb5@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (STACY JOHN BEHRENS)
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Subject: Re: sales numbers
Date: 12 Aug 92 21:30:36 GMT
Organization: Lehigh University

In article <1992Aug8.2712.3391@dosgate>, bill.dehaan@canrem.com (bill dehaan) wr
ites:
>DAB>In message <1992Aug2.165021.845@usenet.ins.cwru.edu>, Douglas A. Bell write
s
>
>DAB>                                                         Windows
>DAB>aquired 4 million users in 26 months, while OS/2 2.0 got 1 million in 4
>DAB>months.  Which one is doing better with the public?
>
>[hand up]
>
>Over here! Over here! I know, I know.
>
>4,000,000 > 1,000,000
>
>And here we thought it was a trick question. :-)

It would be a trick question if the answer were that simple.  Unfortunately,
it isn't.  If the fact that Windows has a larger user base at this time, is
only one factor in the decision.  You must also weigh growth potential of the
market, growth rate, intensity of competition, and a number of other factors.
This doesn't necissarily mean that you ignore Windows, but the OS/2 market has
some very attractive points in its favor.  OS/2 has far greater growth
potential than Windows.  It also is growing at a faster rate.  Perhaps most
important, the Windows market is the hot competition market right now.  If I
were looking to break into or dominate a market, Windows would not be my first
choice.  The competition is really intense.  OS/2 currently provides a much
tamer market then Windows, and this provides oppourtunities that just don't
exist with Windows.  Simply saying 4 million is greater than 1 million is a
grossly oversimplified view of the market.

>
>DAB>A lot of the windows packages were bundled with systems.  The os/2
>DAB>purchases are cases where people put effort into spending money.
>DAB>Would you rather try to sell apps to people who were given the operating
>DAB>enviroment, or to 1 million people who have all ready showed a willingness
>DAB>to pay for software?
>
>I'd rather sell  the most apps,  period. The Windows  base is undeniably
>larger than the OS/2 market, and I expect it will remain so for quite  a
>time to come. Now where the NT market sits, I don't know.

There is a very good chance that in many application areas, you will sell less
apps in Windows than in OS/2.  Shear number of users does not dictate how well
your application will sell.  Look at MicroSoft for example.  Their DOS based
word processor was pretty good as DOS word processors went, but the dominant
leader was WordPerfect.  MS sold a lot of word processing packages, but the
only platform on which they dominated word processors on until very recently
was the Macintosh.  It was a smaller overall market, but I would be willing to
lay odds that it brought in more money for MS than their equivelant DOS
product because they didn't have as difficult a time competing and fighting
against a stubborn user base.  The situation was similair for Windows.  They
were able to be among the first to the Windows market with their word
processor and several other packages, and they now dominate that market.  OS/2
is a new market with a lot of potential.  I think many companies would
sacrifice a little on the bottom line next quarter in order to gain a
significant chunk of what looks to be a highly profitable market in the not
too distant future.  The biggest markets are not always the most profitable,
and sometimes not profitable at all.  What matters is the number sold, not the
number of theoretical potential buyers and market size is not the only factor
involved in that.
>
>----------------------------------+-----------------------------------------
>Deus Ex Machina                   | Internet:   bill.dehaan@rose.com
>Software Consulting and Gator Pit | I'm a brain in a vat. What about you?
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                                                    Stacy John Behrens
                                                    *===)-------------