From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1992 07:55:40 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              28 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 272, 09/28/92
10.7 FLUX=116.7  90-AVG=124        SSN=088      BKI=1222 3323  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=1123 4334  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=005,016,019,018,054,029,017,038   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.7   @ 0928UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.0   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0005UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2250UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1905UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 1125UT   BOUTF-MIN=55404NT @ 1800UT  BOUTF-AVG=55423NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+157NT@ 1809UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 1843UT  G7-AVG=+083,+033,+016
GOES6-MAX=P:+155NT@ 1746UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-036NT@ 1725UT  G6-AVG=+098,-021,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,115;SESC:115,115,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,025/015,035,045
    KFCST=2233 3322 3333 3445  27DAY-AP=003,014   27DAY-KP=1000 1221 2113 3443
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWCH;*MAGPAUSE
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was very low today.  The largest flare of the day was a
class B9.7 event at 09:28 UT.  Very little additional activity was observed.

     Region 7293 (S06W03) has become a little more interesting over the last
24 hours.  Minor growth was noted in this region.  As well, magnetic analysis
of the region shows a weak delta configuration in the trailer spot complex.
The group has been categorized as a type beta-gamma-delta magnetic group and
is capable of C-class flares.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity should continue low to very low.  Region 7293 has the
greatest potential for producing minor C-class flare activity.  The group
still appears to be too simple to support more energetic M-class events.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled today.  Active to minor
storm conditions were observed over the higher latitudes late in the UT day.
Major to severe storming has been observed just prior to the release of this
report.  A minor to major geomagnetic storm may materialize over the next 12
hours.  This activity is thought to be related to a well placed coronal hole.
Similar storm conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 to 48
hours.

     A middle latitude auroral activity warning and a low latitude auroral
activity watch have been issued and will remain valid for the next 48 to 72
hours (until approximately 19:00 UT on 01 October).  Conditions are favorable
for observing auroral activity over the middle latitude regions. The
equatorward position of the auroral oval was measured to lie very near
a geographic position of 115W48N at 06:00 UT.  Strong levels of auroral
activity have been reported all over the northern to north-central U.S.
states and all of the Canadian provinces.  More details will be provided
tommorrow.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions, but began
to show signs of deteriorating as the day progressed.  Major to severe
geomagnetic and auroral storm activity is expected to produce occasionally
useless propagation over the polar and high latitude regions.  All signals
passing near or through the auroral zone are expected to be heavily disturbed
for the next 24 to 48 hours.  No significant improvements are expected until
after approximately 01 October.

     VHF operators should be aware of the increased potential for periods of
VHF backscatter openings on frequencies possibly in excess of 100 MHz.
Please send any reports of observed backscatter to: COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7289  S09W40  104  0170 CAO  05  006 BETA
7291  S06W71  135  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7293  S06W03  067  0170 EAO  11  010 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7294  S11E17  047  0260 HHX  03  001 ALPHA
7295  N13E41  023  0140 CSO  03  002 BETA
7296  N06E42  022  0090 CSO  04  007 BETA
7288  S16W87  151                    PLAGE
7292  N20W04  068                    PLAGE
7297  S16W18  082                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 SEPTEMBER TO 01 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7281 N12   321
7282 S18   294


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
56   S11W01 S25W13 N05W24 N10W04  083  ISO   POS   020 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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