From: Human Rights Coordinator <hrcoord@igc.apc.org>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.mexican
Date: 14 Aug 92 11:47 PDT
Subject: Mexico Emerging as Latin Dragon
Nf-ID: #N:cdp:1545800049:000:6401
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!hrcoord    Aug 14 11:47:00 1992


From: Human Rights Coordinator <hrcoord>
Subject: Mexico Emerging as Latin Dragon

/* Written 11:15 am  Aug 11, 1992 by pacificnews in cdp:pacnews.sample */

COPYRIGHT PACIFIC NEWS SERVICE
450 Mission Street,  Room 506
San Francisco, CA 94105
415-243-4364



NEWS ANALYSIS -- 880 WORDS

MEXICO EMERGING AS "LATIN DRAGON" 
EDITOR'S NOTE: Whether or not the controversial North American 
Free Trade Agreement is ratified, Mexico is in the throes of one of the 
biggest economic transformations taking place anywhere in the world. 
Already some Asian observers are eying it as a new "Latin Dragon" 
whose growth may pose a danger to the economic powerhouses of the 
Pacific Rim. PNS associate editor Walter Truett Anderson reports from 
Mexico City.

BY WALTER TRUETT ANDERSON, PACIFIC NEWS SERVICE

MEXICO CITY -- Although most Americans haven't yet noticed, one of 
the biggest revolutions yet in Latin America's history is going in 
Mexico -- without a gun being fired.

This revolution is economic, and its main objective is to bring Mexico 
fully into the global economy. The ratification of the North American 
Free Trade Agreement will give this revolution a great boost, but 
NAFTA is not the whole story: economist President Carlos Salinas de 
Gortari has already taken his country far along a new, and probably 
irreversible, path of change. 

His policies have broken Mexico loose from its long-standing 
protectionist and collectivist tradition. In the past few years it joined 
the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, slashed import tariffs that 
had run as high as 100 percent, eased restrictions on foreign ownership, 
and sold off hundreds of government-owned businesses. In a 
privatization binge the equal of anything in Eastern Europe, Salinas 
has disposed of the state-owned telephone company, heavy industries, 
banks, insurance companies, food distributors, airlines. Mobilizing 
social forces to check inflation, the government negotiated wage and 
price stabilization pacts with representatives of labor, agriculture and 
business.

Statistics tell some of the story, and for the most part the numbers look 
good: Inflation, which was running over 100 percent in 1987 and 1988, 
is down under 20 percent. The government is now preparing to lop 
three zeros off the shattered but now stable peso, and unveil a new 
peso that will be worth (at current rates) around three to the dollar 
instead of three thousand. U.S. investment has doubled since 1985, and 
U.S. exports to Mexico have nearly doubled as Mexican consumers 
snap up American goods, from fast foods to auto parts. Mexico, at the 
same time, is exporting more manufactured goods to America and 
elsewhere.

Clearly the boom hasn't reached everyone: in terms of real buying 
power the minimum wage has declined, and millions of Mexicans are 
living in abject poverty. But the evidence of a real recovery is 
overwhelming: Probably the most-quoted statistic is that for the past 
three years Mexico's economy has grown faster than its population.

One of the most striking -- and important -- facets of Mexico's current 
modernization push is the emphasis on the environment.   The 
rhetoric of "ecologia" is now a central part of the public dialogue. 
Environmental organizations have proliferated. No day goes by 
without environmental stories in the newspapers, environmental 
speeches by the politicians. The government has, in a time of general 
budget tightening, vastly increased its spending on environmental 
protection, and has stepped up enforcement of environmental laws 
and regulations.

Changes of attitude, even changes in public policy, don't immediately 
translate into breathable and drinkable results -- the levels of air and 
water pollution in Mexico are among the highest in the world. But if 
Mexico can industrialize and "go green" at the same time, it will tell 
the world a lot about the possibilities of making the "sustainable 
development" slogan a reality.

The economic recovery is also precarious: Any number of things -- a 
deepening global recession, a resumption of high inflation -- could 
send the country into another tailspin. Then, too, there's the question 
of whether Mexico can open up its economy without opening up its 
political system as well. Although the country's dominant political 
organization, the Institutional Party of the Revolution, is now 
threatened from both the right and the left, and has lost its dominance 
in some parts of Mexico, it still holds a death grip on the federal 
government. 

 If the North American Free Trade Agreement is completed and 
ratified, it could reinforce that grip even further. President Salinas has 
been energetically buying popularity with highly-publicized public 
works programs financed by the proceeds of privatization, and some of 
his detractors fear that, wrapped in the success of his economic 
programs, he may try to have the constitution amended so he can run 
for a second six-year term.

At the same time, as Mexico finds itself in an ever closer economic, 
political and social union with the United States and Canada, more 
attention will be paid to Mexico and undoubtedly there will be new 
pressures on Mexico -- from its North American partners and from the 
global economy -- to become a genuine democracy.

All this points toward Mexico becoming a different kind of country, in 
a different kind of world. It is leaving the family of undeveloped Third 
World countries for the smaller circle of industrial powers, and 
threatening to become a competitor in international markets. An 
article in the Far Eastern Economic Review referred to Mexico as an 
emerging "Latin Dragon" whose growth may pose a danger to the 
economic powerhouses of Asia. As it becomes a global economic 
player, it is also assuming a new role of leadership in Latin America.

To those who cling to the old notion of Mexico as the land where 
nothing gets done -- or gets done right -- it seems almost unthinkable 
that the country could be on the verge of assuming such a role. It is as 
surprising as the thought was a few decades ago that Japan -- that 
shattered little country where they made all those tacky products -- 
could ever become one of the world's richest and most powerful 
nations. But if one country that we thought we knew could surprise us, 
so can another.

(08111992)	**** END ****	 COPYRIGHT PNS


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