From: marky@engin.umich.edu (Mark Anthony Young)
Subject: Re: I was going to vote yes, BUT NOW ....
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 92 23:35:09 EDT
Organization: University of Michigan Engineering, Ann Arbor

beaurega@ireq.hydro.qc.ca (Denis Beauregard) writes:
>The new 18 MP will bias with what % compared to the 18 missing MP
>in the current HoC?
>
>Moreover, the _eventual_ 20 seats will compensate the previous bias
>francophones suffered for years.   [...]

Quebec does not need twenty seats to compensate it for its previous under-
representation.  It has never really suffered very much from the small
perturbations we've seen in previous Houses.  Giving Quebec 18 MPs does
not mean that it was 18 seats under-represented before.  Because there
are forty-two new seats being added to the HoC, and Quebec has about 25%
of the population, Quebec's share goes up by ten or eleven seats.  Thus
Quebec is only benefitting by seven or eight seats (still considerable).

The first two tables below show Quebec's position after the 1971 and 1981 
census redistributions (carried out in the middle of each decade).

1971    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
Nfld       7        522         7         0
PEI        4        112         1        +3
NS        11        789        10        +1
NB        10        635         8        +2
Que       74      6 028        74         0
Ont       88      7 703        94        -6
Man       13        988        12        +1
Sask      13        926        11        +2
Alta      19      1 628        20        -1
BC        23      2 185        27        -4
YT         1         18         0        +1
NWT        1         35         0        +1
-------------------------------------
Can      264     21 568       264

1981    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
Nfld       7        568         7         0
PEI        4        123         2        +2
NS        11        847        10        +1
NB        10        696         8        +2
Que       75      6 438        78        -3
Ont       99      8 625       105        -6
Man       14      1 026        12        +2
Sask      14        968        12        +2
Alta      26      2 238        27        -1
BC        32      2 745        33        -1
YT         1         23         0        +1
NWT        2         46         1        +1
-------------------------------------
Can      295     24 343       295

Quebec is at par in the first distribution, and only under-represented by
three seats in the second.  Ontario is short six seats in both cases.  BC was
short by four seats in the 1971 distribution -- worse than Quebec's showing in
either case.

The next table gives the distribution of the House under the next election, as
called for by the Cha'town accord.

1991    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
Nfld       7        568         7         0
PEI        4        130         2        +2
NS        11        900        11         0
NB        10        624         8        +2
Que       93      6 896        86        +7
Ont      117     10 085       125        -8
Man       14      1 092        13        +1
Sask      14        989        12        +2
Alta      28      2 546        31        -3
BC        36      3 282        41        -5
YT         1         28         0        +1
NWT        2         58         1        +1
-------------------------------------
Can      337     27 297       337

Quebec is suddenly over-represented by seven seats.  Quebec is the sole 
beneficiary of the additional seats (all other provinces are the same or worse 
as they were before).  

Quebec's over-representation is not as bad as it sounds, tho', because this
distribution will likely only be used once.  After the '96 census, there will
be another (special) redistribution.

The next table gives Tom Box's estimates for the post-96 House.  He used the
1991 population figures together with the rules given in the Cha'town accord
to come up with these estimates. The Cha'town accord calls for the '96 figures
to be used, but we obviously don't have those yet.

1996    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
Nfld       8        568         7        +1
PEI        4        130         2        +2
NS        12        900        12         0
NB        10        624         8        +2
Que       93      6 896        91        +2
Ont      126     10 085       133        -7
Man       15      1 092        14        +1
Sask      14        989        13        +1
Alta      32      2 546        34        -2
BC        41      3 282        43        -2
YT         1         28         0        +1
NWT        2         58         1        +1
-------------------------------------
Can      358     27 297       358

Because of the redistribution, Quebec's over-representation is down to a more
reasonable two seats.  Ontario, BC and Alberta are the only under-represented
provinces.  Ontario's seven seat deficit is larger than anything in the '71
or '81 Houses.

Now if this were the end of it, I would have no problem with the HoC.  Quebec
could go on being over-represented by two seats indefinitely without causing
me any distress.  But Quebec's 25% guarantee gets in the way.  I have posted
figures before to support my contention that by the middle of the next
century, Quebec will have only about twenty percent of Canada's population.

Here is how that chart might look in 2041.  These numbers are based on the
growth in each province since 1971.  Taking a longer base leads to larger
populations, a shorter base to smaller, but the percent of total population is
fairly constant over many bases.

2041    Seats   Population  RepByPop    Gain
----    -----   ----------  --------    ----
Nfld       6        702         5        +1
PEI        4        189         1        +3
NS        10      1 251         9        +1
NB        10      1 005         7        +3
Que       95      9 653        70       +25
Ont      124     19 780       143       -19
Man       10      1 402        10         0
Sask      10      1 166         8        +2
Alta      49      7 787        56        -7
BC        57      9 075        66        -9
YT         1         85         1         0
NWT        2        205         2         0
-------------------------------------
Can      378     52 300       378

I calculated these numbers as follows:

    a) Start with the 1996 size House (358 seats).
    b) Reserve 25% of the seats for Quebec (leaves 268 seats).
    c) Reserve three seats for the territories (leaves 265 seats).
    d) Distribute these seats to the nine remaining provinces according to 
       population.
    e) Raise the representation of any province that does not meet its fixed 
       floor (this gets all the Atlantic provinces).
    f) Raise the representation of any province that has less seats than a 
       smaller province (this gets Manitoba and Saskatchewan).
    g) Raise Quebec's representation until it meets the 25% floor.

Note that this House is so small that seven provinces are running up against
their minimums.  However, making the House any larger would only make Quebec's
over-representation (already over twenty seats) worse.  (If we put the rising
floor constraint back in, Quebec could be over-represented by thirty-three
seats!)

So, I hope it is obvious to all that the proposed 25% floor is way out of
proportion to any deviations from rep-by-pop that we've seen in the past.

...mark young