From: tzung@cbnewsf.cb.att.com (tzung-i.lin)
Subject: From Russia's MiG-29 sale to Taiwan's fighter needs (LONG)
Organization: AT&T
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1992 20:32:38 GMT



		-- From Russia's Attempt to Sell MiG-29s 
			to the Needs of Taiwan's Fighter Airplane --

A recent report from Aviation Week and Space Technology (8/3/92) claiming
that Russia is trying to sell 50 MiG-29s, formerly ordered by Iraq,
to Taiwan.  Not yet confirmed or denied by both Russia and Taiwan,
this "rumor" (from the reliable, authoritative American aviation
magazine) which surfaced just during the French's Mirage 2000 negotiation 
with Taiwan and Bush administration's statement about reconsidering
selling F-16 to Taiwan presents some interesting questions: 

	1. What is the meaning behind all these events?
	2. What fighters really fits Taiwan's air defense need?
	3. Where should Taiwan go from here?

First of all, I'm glad Russia has this intention and hope our government
can make the most out of this move.  Before we look into these
questions I listed above, let me introduce these aircrafts.

** The Hardware

Mirage 2000-5

	is an export version of French air force's touting success
Mirage 2000 series family.  It's a twin engine, delta wing 
air superiority/long range interception/interdiction/low-altitude penetration,
to put it simple, it's an all purpose fighter.  Equipped with Matra's MICA
(equivalent to US's AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range AAM) or Super 530D
(equivalent to US AIM-7M) and Magic R550 AAM (equ. to US AIM-9L), 
it can take on any in-service air-superiority fighters of the world
for interception or dog-fight.  With terrain-flying radar and ASMP
nuclear ASM, it's a long-range penetration bomber to destroy
airfield, radar posts and heavy armor concentrations.  
Mirage 2000 is among the few fighters in service today that 
utilizes fly-by-wire technology (which is the key element why
delta-winged fighter can still exist nowadays) The development
takes a long time due to the delay of M88 engine and RDM radar.
The high development cost plus the limited market (only 4 (?) countries
operate Mirage 2000) makes the fly-away cost of a single Mirage 2000
to be almost double as that of a F-16 A/B.  In other words, French
is desperate is selling some to maintain their production lines.
Mirage 2000-5 is equipped with simpler radar and avionics for export purpose.
The future replacement is Rafale, a new delta wing fighter.

F-16

	Need I say more? :-) I believe you've watched its performance
in the Gulf war.  However, I suspect what Bush trying to sell is
its older model F-16 A/B, not the latest, much better model F-16 C/D.
Bush administration announced that they would re-consider selling 
F-16 to Taiwan during a election tour in Texas where a F-16 production
line is facing shut down in the near future.  The production line
most likely produces F-16C/D.  But this does not indicate it's
C/D we are getting. (see arguments below)  In short, F-16A/B has
been out for almost 20 years now while C/D are the latest with
enhanced radar system, medium range AAM capability and better engine.
The future replacement is YF-22.

MiG-29

	The latest and the best fighter from MiG line.  While the older
MiGs are often a laughing target in the Western pilots, the latest
fighter/bombers from the former USSR is nothing but a laughing matter.
Surprised many NATO test pilots who flew MiG-29 in various airshow
in Western Europe, MiG-29 has been praised by many to be the most
agile fighter in service!  It joins the SU-27 as the two most
advanced fighter/bomber coming out from the USSR.
(note: Though there is MiG-31 in service in USSR, but it's actually
a modified MiG-25 with longer range and look-down, shoot-down capability,
the airframe design is inferior to MiG-29)  Actually MiG-29 looks like
a smaller F-15 in appearance.  No replacements project known yet.
(but you can bet on it that there is a MiG-33 in design board)

** Taiwan's Situation

	Well, what can I say? Sigh.  We got 200+ F-5E/F which
is suitable for dog-fight and 60+ F-104 for all-weather interception.
They all need replacements.  HOWEVER, for the past 10 years or so,
no one is willing to sell us anything.  Thus the IDF project with
help from General Dynamic for the airframe design (basically a hybrid
of F-16A's main frame and YF-17's twin engine and wing design
with intakes similar to French Rafale's side-mounted intakes).
The Golden Dragon Radar which is to be used on IDF is supposedly a
smaller version of APG-69 (?), the one used on F-16A. (according to
Jane's book)  The main flaw of IDF project lies on the engine.
The TFE-1042 is a derivation from TFE-731 (AT-3's engine).
Current combined thrust (twin engine) is 16,000 lb. which is less
than a single F-16A engine, 25,000 lb.  With weight in the same
class of F-16A, the engine is way too inferior to support a performance
of F-16A class.  The future plan is thinking to boost the TFE1042
engine to 24,000 combined and even further to 36,000 lb.
(I guess the later would be the rumored ADF project)  However,
even if the 24,000lb thrust IDF is at par the F-16A performance,
there is at least 5-10 years gap before the mass production begins.
It is during this gap (and the possibility that IDF really is no
match for F-16A even with its new 24,000 lb. engines) that we need
some new fighters to phase out F-104 and F-5s.  Especially the
all-weather interceptor.  To my knowledge, F5E/F are no night fighters.
(unless ROCAF did upgrade their radar and avionics)

Based on the assumption that the threat for Taiwan comes from the North
(you know whom I mean) and the fact that Taiwan has a limited air fields
which are subject to attacks in the first wave of air war, 
what Taiwan needs (IMHO) are two type of aircrafts : one is a long-range
penetration bomber like Mirage 2000N (N stands for Nuclear) which
can carry precision ammunition to destroy enemy's airfield to disrupt
their invading flow; another is an interceptor/air superiority fighter
to first shoot down as many as possible by medium range active homing
AAMs (like AIM-7M, MICA or AMRAAM), then engaging in dog-fights with
the surviving invading force.  Both require a short take-off and landing.
To support them, we need good searching radars (ground and airborne),
good active radar-homing medium range AAM, terrain flying system
and smart ammunition for airfield attack. (Yes, I know, I'm asking too
much ...)

** What do all these events mean?

Well, how about that the "rumor" of MiG-29 deal is created by
F-16 supporters (based on the fact the Russia high official just
visited Taiwan) to pressure Bush to sell F-16s. :-) A joke? well
there might be some truth to it ... you could never tell :-)

O.K., Seriously speaking:

1. Russia's intention put us in a buyer's market, we now have Mirage 2000-5
F-16 A/B and MiG-29 export to choose from, this will put us in a 
very good-looking position when bargaining the final deal.
We can thus pushing either the US to sell us more advanced F-16 C/D
or ask France to include MICA, Matra Super 530D medium AAM with 
upgraded avionics, radars.

2. When Bush says reconsidering the sale of F-16 to Taiwan,  everyone
knows it's only a political smoke.  Just like his famous "Read my lips:
NO NEW TAX!" line, it's only said to please the voters, after he got
his presidential seat, the F-16 sale might (with high probability)
be suspended again.  Besides, I really doubt that Bush will sell
the advanced F-16 C/D version (the ones used in Persian War),
my guess is that even if he really means to sell F-16, he would clean out
the old F-16A/B which serves in the reserved air force and sell them
to Taiwan, then use Texas plant to produce F-16 C/D for their own use.
This satisfies both the voters, congressman and the principle not
to sell high-tech or "offensive" weapons to Taiwan.  
Even if we got the F-16 A/B, these are almost 15 years old now.
After the transfer and training, we would have a batch of almost
retired old tech airplanes which in a few years would need upgrades
or replacements and so on.  Anyway, I don't trust Bush.
(If we use Bush as a symbol, then to "Bush it" becomes #%=*&$?# ... :-)

3. If my second point is true, then in between an export version 
of MiG-29 (with simpler radar and avionics) and the 15 years old
F-16A/B (also with old model of radar with no true capability
of medium AAM), I personally would go for MiG-29 since according
to a test flight by the NATO pilots, the MiG-29 is amazingly agile
and high power.  And a MiG-29 is sold (I guess, between 10 millions to
12 millions, a F-16A/B probably goes for 15-20 millions.  
I believe a hard-cash-hungered Russia will be a better one to deal
with when we talk about the upgrades and the sale price than the Bush.

** Trade-offs: Which one fits our need? 

Among the three choices, the Mirage 2000 obviously has the best
potential to fulfill the need (long-range penetrator/interceptor)
especially if we can include the 530D or MICA AAM in the deal.
Mirage 2000 maybe the best all-around fighter we can get.
The shortcoming of Mirage is its price and maintenance.

MiG-29 probably is the next best choice for its superior performance
and price.  With a desperate Russia, we might even get some of
the latest AAMs from them.  The bad point about MiG-29 will be
the unstable Russia political status.  This in turns means
a severe problem on maintenance and logistic supports.
However, if China and Taiwan are unified, we have the same system :-)
JUST KIDDING!!!

F-16 A/B will be the last choice because of its uncertainty (of Bush)
and America's attitude not providing us advanced weapons.
Otherwise from long term view, it's good for the logistic supports.

But reality is far apart from ideal case.  There are many other
factors affecting the final outcome of this deal: politics,
maintenance, deal package price, timeline and other minor factors.

*** Conclusion: Where should Taiwan go from here?

So, all these events mean a good chance for Taiwan to upgrade
its air defense power.  But it really depends on how Taiwan bargain
their way around.  It also depends on how much Taiwan trust Bush's
promise.  If Taiwan is naive and wants to wait for F-16 (which
eventually may not come true), then we could lose the Mirage 2000 deal
and eventually get 20 year old F-16A/B.

As for MiG-29 deal, one thing that I do fear for is that our
government will let this chance go away.  Three mentality stands 
in the way: (1) Some old guards still think Russia is an enemy/rival
(2) They don't regard MiGs to be good fighters. (WRONG!!)
(3) They are afraid CCP might use this as an excuse to invade Taiwan.

If Taiwan is not stupid in endless waiting for F-16, I think Taiwan's
best move is to negotiate a good deal from France and possibly with
backup deal from Russia.  In French part, the number, the price and
the weapon system will be the key issues to deal with, also with
certain assembly capability.  One future point is if IDF/ADF project
is going no where, why not take this opportunity to talk with France
to invest money on their Rafale project to boost the development
of the next generation fighter?  In a difficult time like this,
as long as France is willing to, I believe it's a better deal than
the McDonald's.  With French's intention to sell Mirage 2000 and
with the post-USSR political chaos, i would try to convince France
with this bargain, maybe together with Mirage 2000 deal.  While in
the mean time, keeps talk with Russia open as a fall back plan.

If we really can buy some real stuff, then the US is not blind nor stupid, 
the F-16 C/D deal will become more reality than dream and smoke.
So the best move is to ignore the F-16 deal, and concentrate
on French/Russia deals.  As it moves along, we might get
the F-16 C/D or even the F-18 in a surprise ending.

Tzung-I