From: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu (Rich Winkel)
Subject: U.S. MAY PROVOKE IRAQ
Followup-To: alt.activism.d
Originator: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu
Organization: PACH
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 1992 19:09:49 GMT

/** mideast.action: 28.0 **/
** Topic: -> U.S. TO PROVOKE IRAQ MONDAY <- **
** Written  9:10 am  Aug 16, 1992 by sfreedkin in cdp:mideast.action **
(As printed as the lead story on Page 1 of the Santa Barbara (CA) News-Press,
Sunday, August 16, 1992 -- I have added items in [square brackets] and the
footnote about time zones)

U.S. PLANS SHOWDOWN IN BAGHDAD

By Patrick E. Tyler
The New York Times

    HOUSTON -- The United States and its allies have decided to provoke a
confrontation with Iraq on Monday morning* over the right to inspect Baghdad's
most closely guarded ministry buildings, American officials familiar with
administration planning said on Saturday.
    The plan could lead to renewed bombing in Baghdad in coming days and the
evacuation of U.N. personnel in Iraq.  Some U.S. government officials said
that the timing appeared calculated to give President Bush a boost during
the Republican National Convention, which begins on Monday, and could
damage the credibility of the United Nations, which is carrying out weapons
inspections in the name of the 15-member [U.N.] Security Council.
    After a series of interagency meetings in Washington last week, and
consultations with British, French, and U.N. officials, Bush and his
national security advisor, Brent Scowcroft, approved a plan on Thursday
calling for U.N. inspectors now in Baghdad to demand access to Baghdad's
Ministry of Military Industrialization, government officials said.  The
chief of the U.N. special commission that supervises the inspections, Rolf
Ekeus, was said to have left for Bahrain, where inspection teams are based.
    This ministry, which was not bombed during the Persian Gulf War,
supervised Iraq's once-secret program to develop weapons of mass destruc-
tion under the management of President Saddam Hussein's son-in-law, Hussein
Kamel Hassan.
    If Iraqi officials bar inspectors from the building, as they have
threatened to do to protect Iraqi national security and sovereignty,
American carrier-based aircraft would bomb the building in short order, the
officials said, in a demonstration of American resolve that would have an
inescapable impact on the political gathering here [the Republican National
Convention in Houston].
    But the action would not necessarily end there.  After an attack on
the Military Industrialization Ministry, the United Nations would demand
access to Iraq's Ministry of Defense, the heart of its national security
apparatus, which was relocated to the Ministry of Petroleum building after
the 1991 allied bombardment of the capital destroyed the original structure.
    Again, any refusal by Iraqi officials to allow access to this
building would lead to its destruction by U.S. aircraft, officials said,
adding that the confrontation and bombing could continue through a list of
nine targets.
    Other U.S. officials said the Defense and Military Industrialization
Ministries were selected not because American intelligence has identified
specific documents hidden there, but because these buildings are so
important to Hussein's overall survival that he is certain to refuse access.
    One official complained that "we are going to stage an incident" that
relates less to the importance of any documents that might be found in the
targeted buildings than to the conviction that the steps will provoke a
confrontation that will serve as the pretext for military action and "to
help get the president re-elected."
    "That is unbelievable -- that is total trash," Bush campaign political
director Mary Matalin said in response.
    Defense Secretary Dick Cheney said there had been no change in policy
regarding Iraq and that the allegation that Bush would hit Hussein in such
a way for political gain was a "goofy charge."
    "We aren't doing anything that we haven't been doing for the last two
years in terms of insisting that Saddam Hussein comply with U.N. resolu-
tions," Cheney told reporters in Seattle.
    "As long as he complies with those resolutions, then everything's
going to be fine," Cheney added.  "If he fails to comply with those resolu-
tions, clearly we have the capability, should it be required, to compel him
to comply."
    Bush appeared to be calculating he has a strong mandate from the allies
to confront Iraq's broad challenge to U.N. authority this summer as well as
a political green light from his Democratic challenger, Gov. Bill Clinton
of Arkansas, to take a tougher line against Hussein.
    Initially, Bush has selected a set of military options that pose the
least risk to American military forces, though the loss or capture of any
American pilots could deal Bush a damaging political blow.
    And, though more risky steps might have to be considered if Bush
exhausts a target list and finds Hussein still defiant, he can also hope
that the humiliation of renewed bombing will embolden internal Iraqi
dissidents who staged an unsuccessful coup against Hussein in late June.
    The Bush administration telegraphed its planning last week when a
senior official, speaking in a background session with reporters, said U.N.
inspectors would demand access to Iraqi ministry buildings "within the
proximite future."
    One reporter was encouraged beforehand to ask the senior briefer about
planning against Iraq, and the official replied that if the Iraqi leader
"decides we can't inspect certain places" U.S. military forces in the region
"can respond sharply."
    "I think it might be useful to demonstrate that he had to obey the
United Nations sanctions," the senior policymaker told the reporters, but
declined to provide further details.  In subsequent days, other officials,
troubled by the rush with which the White House asked the State Department
and the Pentagon to prepare for simultaneous relief and military operations
in Somalia and Iraq during the Republican convention, provided additional
details about the planned sequence of confrontation and the primary
targets.
    
    -- This story includes reports from The Associated Press.

________________
*The article did not clarify what "Monday morning" means.  8 a.m. Monday
Baghdad time is midnight Monday morning Eastern time.

POSTED BY:

-- Steve Freedkin (igc:sfreedkin)
   Executive Director
   Peace Resource Center of Santa Barbara
   13 W. Figueroa St.
   Santa Barbara, CA  93101-3103   USA
   tel. (805) 965-8583
   fax  (805) 962-6227
   Mon.-Sat. noon-5 Pacific time

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