From: sehari@iastate.edu (Babak Sehari)
Subject: Re: Windows 3.1 launch
Originator: sehari@du139-201.cc.iastate.edu
Organization: Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.
Date: Wed, 8 Apr 1992 19:01:32 GMT

In <1992Apr07.134105.6281@highlite.uucp> burgoyne@highlite.uucp (J. Robert Burgoyne) writes:

>In article <ktuoamINNaui@alhena.usc.edu> ajayshah@alhena.usc.edu (Ajay Shah) writes:
>>barbon_m@eis.dofasco.ca writes:
>>
>>>> I was thinking this might be a good short term play since they are expected
>>>> to ship over 1 million of these things within a week of lauch. How does the
>>>> company rate otherwise (ie. debt load etc...)?
>>
>>Actually don't count on it.
>>Surveys show that roughly 1 in 6 people who purchased windows 3
>>actually boots his computer with it.  The marketing guys did a
>>terrific job of whipping up media hysteria at the last launch.
>>Presumably many buyers will be wiser the second time around.
>>
>>That gives us a remarkably low penetration of windows into the PC
>>market, contrary to what is commonly talked of.  There are roughly 50
>>million PCs in the world, roughly 10 million purchased windows, and
>>roughly 1 million is booting windows.
>>
>Let's not just bash MS without some facts here. In 1991, $5.7E9 worth of
>software was sold, an increase of about 25% over 1990. MS had more than
>$1.5E9 of that total, an increase also of about 25%. Sales of Windows
>applications (Total $ figure not available) were up 196% over 1990.
>The above are from the Software Publisher's Association, quoted in the
>3/27/92 WSJ, Page B3 and from MS's annual report.

>Now, companies whose annual growth is >20% have very high stock prices,
>and MS is no exception. But look at past performance. 

>	April 1990	$55.00
>	June  1990	$87.00

>After adjustment for a 3 for 2 split,

>	April 1992	$180.00

>What, you mean I could have tripled my money in 2 years with Microsoft?
>Yes, and what's to say you can't do it again? Growth in the PC software
>market is hardly declining, and if people can tell me why it is, I would
>like to know.

>Robert

However, I believe MS did not gain all that popularity by it's own virtue.  MS
gained most it's  popularity by closely cooperating with IBM.  As, most of 
you know IBM came out with the original PC. 

Now, with IBM beating MS and other more innovative companies such as Borland,
Digital Research (DRDOS), and even to some extent ATT's Unix are 
competing for the same piece of pie, I do not think MS could continue to 
increase revenue with the same peace as before.  AS a result, it just 
need only one quarter of not meeting the speculator's demand, i.e. it's 
earning growth does not match the wall street's expected earning
growth, to lose most of it's exaggerated value.

Now, do not misunderstand me, I am not saying it won't be a profitable company.
What I am saying is the earning GROWTH might not match the previous years.

On the same note, IBM might surprise all the wise kids this time with better
performance.  Unlike MS, which is in favor now, IBM is out of favor. 
Eventhough, the price is not still right, but when and if it hits to low  
60's or high 50's, it is the stock to have, at least for short term. Off 
course, the assumption is interest  rates stay the same or go lower.

                        With highest regards,
                             Babak   Sehari.

From: sjb@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM (Stuart Bobb)
Date: Fri, 10 Apr 1992 14:56:04 GMT
Subject: Re: JW Gant: EuroDisney. Anyone heard of them?
Organization: Hewlett-Packard, Fort Collins, CO, USA