From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 August
Date: 22 Aug 92 18:35:17 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               21 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 234, 08/21/92
10.7 FLUX=124.9  90-AVG=125        SSN=085      BKI=2213 3321  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B7.5     FLU1=1.0E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2213 3332  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=012,015,008,029,035,025,017,008   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=03:021
 XRAY-MAX= M1.9   @ 1200UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.0   @ 2305UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1330UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2330UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1850UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 2115UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55258NT @ 1014UT   BOUTF-MIN=55195NT @ 1641UT  BOUTF-AVG=55243NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+148NT@ 1737UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-008NT@ 1139UT  G7-AVG=+094,+041,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+148NT@ 1758UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 1756UT  G6-AVG=+103,-001,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,110;SESC:120,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,015,015
    KFCST=2224 5222 2224 3221  27DAY-AP=012,007   27DAY-KP=3222 3432 3312 2222
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.3/1B@0018;**MINFLR:M1.0/1F@1110;**MINFLR:M1.9/1N@1200;
          **SWEEP:II=2@0848UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity continued moderate.  Three additional M-class flares were
observed from Region 7260 (N16W51).  The largest of these was an M1.9/1N
flare at 12:00 UT.  A C6.6/SF flare also from Region 7260 was responsible for
a moderate Type II sweep near 08:48 UT.  Most of these flares were associated
with weak radio bursts.

     Region 7260 became a little more stable today.  Flare activity decreased
in frequency and overall magnitude, and there are signs of minor decay in the
group.  Despite these changes, the region remains very capable of producing
M-class flare activity.  The potential for more energetic major levels
activity are diminishing somewhat, although a slight risk still exists.  The
delta configuration still exists in the trailer spot complex.

     Aside from Region 7260, there are only two other small regions visible
that have been relatively dormant over the last several days.  Neither of
these regions are capable of producing anything more energetic than weak B
and/or C-class flares.

     No new regions were assigned today.

     Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.  Region 7260 is the
only region with a significant potential for producing strong C and/or minor
M-class flares.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.  The field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active over the next 24 to 72 hours.  Weak
disturbances possibly launched by the recent minor flare activity could
produce periods of active to minor storm level activity, particularly over
the higher latitudes.  A very large Fe XIV coronal hole with an equatorward
extent down to approximately N30 is on the central meridian today.  Although
this hole is not clearly defined in He 10830A imagery, it may periodically
enhance levels of geomagnetic activity due to grazing effects.

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions.  Daylit
signal paths are still at risk for experiencing occasional short wave
fadeouts due to minor solar flare activity.  Most of the observed SWFs have
remained less than one hour in length and have affected frequencies only as
high as about 15 MHz.  Similar conditions are expected to continue.  Night
sector propagation could become less stable over the next 72 hours due to
possible minor solar disturbances attributed to the recent minor flare
activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7260  N16W51  256  1360 EKC  15  051 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7264  N17W07  212  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7265  S18E39  166  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 AUGUST TO 24 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7242 N16   103


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0013 0018 0032 7260  N18W34 M1.3  1B    340 26     III
 0840 0848 0854 7260  N18W46 C6.6  SF    230 56     II
 1056 1110 1131 7260  N14W40 M1.0  1F
 1153 1200 1225 7260  N16W43 M1.9  1N


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
21/B0855             A0859       N18W46   RSP    C6.6   13  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **