From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 31 Dec 1992 09:17:38 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                30 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 365, 12/30/92
10.7 FLUX=125.7  90-AVG=139        SSN=084      BKI=2323 3211  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B3.8     FLU1=2.5E+05  FLU10=9.4E+03  PKI=2323 3211  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=015,027,013,025,023,010,009,005   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.2   @ 0939UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.1   @ 0459UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0235UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0725UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1950UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 1421UT   BOUTF-MIN=55397NT @ 1919UT  BOUTF-AVG=55411NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1907UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-006NT@ 0949UT  G7-AVG=+077,+033,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1859UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 2355UT  G6-AVG=+095,-000,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,115;SESC:120,115,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=0003 5000 0003 5000  27DAY-AP=012,011   27DAY-KP=2423 3322 2333 3222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0255;**SWEEP:II=1@2131UTC;**SWEEP:II=1@0837UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7376 (N15W77) pro-
       duced all of today's flare activity. The largest event was a
       C5.2/SF at 0939Z. Two smaller flares were accompanied by weak
       Type II sweeps: a C1/SF at 0248Z and a C2/SF at 0825Z. This
       group continues to show growth and bright plage but seems to
       have a fairly simple magnetic structure. Region 7381 (N04W39)
       continued to decay and was stable. Surge activity was reported
       on east limb at about S12.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Solar background and activity levels are expected to
       decline with the departure of Region 7376 from west limb on
       1 January.

       CAMPAIGN NOTICE:

            Word from Antarctica is that HIREGS is prepared and ready
       to launch as soon as 0600UT on 31 Dec.  The only impediment to
       launch now is surface winds.  This campaign begins following
       successful launch and ascent of HIREGS.  Observatories who wish
       to begin taking background data may do so.  Adequate target
       regions are sparse.  Region 7376 (N15W78 at 31/0000UT) is
       producing occasional C-class flares and should be considered as
       the primary target region at this time.  The limb near SE10
       continues to exhibit optical surging but no spots are visible
       yet.  This area is the secondary target.  A campaign action
       notice will be issued when the actual launch time is known.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Some
       brief active periods were observed at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 31 dec-02 jan

                             Class M    10/10/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 dec-02 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions improved over all regions today.
       High latitude paths transiting the auroral zones continued to
       experience minor signal degradation, but have improved steadily
       over the last 24 hours.  Conditions should become near-normal
       over all regions during the next 24 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7374  S09W88  006  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7376  N15W78  356  0190 DAO  08  005 BETA
7378  N11W65  343  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7379  S11W39  317  0060 CAO  04  005 BETA
7381  N04W39  317  0170 CAO  08  011 BETA
7383  S05W44  322  0010 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7382  S18W16  294                    PLAGE
7384  N02W66  344                    PLAGE
7385  S23W83  001                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 DECEMBER TO 02 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7362 S06   176
7360 S19   164


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0240 0248 0253 7376  N14W63 C1.6  SF               II
 0817 0825 0830 7376  N14W66 C2.8  SF               II
 2105 2129 2149              C2.7                   II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
30/B0251             A0258       N14W63   RSP    C1.6   13  2
30/B0826             A0837       N14W66   RSP    C2.8   13  1
30/B2131          31/A0000                RSP    C2.7   44  1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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