From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: More of my predictions.  The NL this time.
Date: 6 Apr 92 18:50:39 GMT
Organization: Princeton University
Originator: news@ernie.Princeton.EDU


My EXCITING Predictions continued.  Here's the NL:  

NL East: New York/Pittsburgh/Montreal/St Louis/Chicago/Philadelphia

New York:  Yes, this team has holes.  Defense is one.  The bottom of the
	offense is another.  Elster/Pecota/Hundley are going to kill tons of
	rallies. And Randolph isn't likely to have that good a year again.
	Furthermore, Murray has had 2 bad years in the last 3.  Coleman isn't
	very good.  Having said all that, I think HoJo/Bonilla/Murray *will* 
	do a lot, and when they replace Pecota with Magadan, that will help.
	But their *real* strength is pitching.  Who else can boast pitchers
	like Cone, Saberhagen, Fernandez, and Gooden?  With Young, Schourek, 
	and Whitehurst available if necessary.

Pittsburgh: There's a big dropoff from Bonilla to Buechelle.  Merced had
	a year I don't think he can repeat.  Van Slyke has back problems, and
	Jeff King cannot justify a starting first base job.  Their pitching 
	is shakier with the trade of Smiley for Neagle, too.  They're still
	solid, but not quite good enough.

Montreal: Everyone laughs at them because their front office left and
	their stadium collapsed.  It's funny, all right, but it doesn't have
	much to do with how they'll play this year.  They'll be good.  They
	replace Galarraga with Barbarie, and Wallach will rebound some.
	Deshields will improve, too.  They've got Stairs waiting in the wings
	if necessary.  They've got solid young pitching to complement Martinez.
	If everyone clicked at once, they could challenge for the division.  
	I don't think this will happen, but they will be decent.

St Louis: Galarraga?  Why?  He can't hit, and that leaves Guerrero in left, 
	which he can't play.  Their pitching is weak with Magrane out.
	They're lucky the division contains the Phillies and Cubs.

Chicago: They could just as easily be 6th.  They've got *1* great hitter,
	Sandberg, and lots of low OBP people like Sosa and Dawson and Dunston.
	Grace had better rebound or he won't be worth playing; he does walk
	some but has no power.  (Who was it who said that they should have
	kept Palmeiro instead of him?)  If they'd play Villanueva, they'd do 
	better, but not enough for it to matter.  And their pitching? Who 
	else besides the Cubs would sign Mike Morgan?  Other than Maddux,
	McElroy, and Assenmacher, is there anyone here who can pitch?

Philadelphi: Boy, can we say low OBP.  After Dykstra and Kruk, this offense
	has nothing.  Chamberlain and Murphy munch on outs.  Several solid, but
	not star, pitchers, like Mulholland, Greene, DeJesus, and Abbott,
	would be enough if this team hit.  But it won't.

And, of course, the NL West:

Los Angeles/Atlanta/Cincinnati/San Diego/Houston/San Fransisco

Los Angeles: If Lasorda would play Hansen, it would help, but this is still
	a pretty good team.  Davis will help the offense a lot, of course.
	The pitching is subpar for LA, but still good.  If your #3 pitcher is
	Kevin Gross, you're in bad shape.  But if he's your #5 pitcher, it
	isn't so bad.  The bullpen is pretty strong with Seanez.

Atlanta: Pendleton will have a much worse year, of course.  A full year of 
	Justice would help.  The main problem?  How long will it take Bobby
	Cox to realize Otis Nixon can't hit?   If he's quick to replace him,
	Atlanta will be in much better shape.  Their pitching is REALLY strong,
	but can all their starters stay healthy again?  That's asking a lot.
	But it will be a close race again.

Cincinnati: Okay, so they have some good pitching.  Four very good starters, 
	and when your second choice for closer is Charlton, you're in good 
	shape.  Bip Roberts was a good pickup, but can O'Neill repeat his big
	year?  And can Roberts/Sanders/Martinez really make up for the loss of
	Eric Davis?  Not quite.

San Diego: Well, they have a 3bman and 2bman now, and the 3bman could even be
	really good.  They lost their leadoff hitter, though, and that outfield
	is still pretty lame after Gwynn.  Probably Santiago will be traded, 
	too.  Plus, there are too many health questions about their starting
	pitching, although if they are healthy, the top 3 are among the best 
	in the league (Hurst/Harris/Benes).  Myers is obviously a solid closer,
	too.

Houston: Tons of holes, and it's a young team, needing improvement.  But
	they do have lots of potential.  In a few years, this team will have a
	lot to offer.  But they've got to set up a pitching staff that doesn't
	include Doug Jones, first.  Anyway, they'll improve enough to be better 
	than San Francisco.  Or at least the Giants will collapse past them.
	Gee, and the Republicans look to be losers this year, too.  I guess 
	Houston is going to have to get used to that.

San Francisco: Okay, what is Al Rosen on?  Kevin Mitchell for 3 middle
	relievers???  They were in the bottom half of the league last year in
	offense, *with* Mitchell; without him, they aren't going to score ANY
	runs.  And the pitching?  Ha! Bill Swift is NOT a starter.  Everyone
	else is going to get hurt, & Wilson & Black have gotten started early.

-- 
David M. Nieporent              |ALEast 92: 1.Baltimore 2.Boston 3.Toronto
niepornt@phoenix.princeton.edu  |4. Detroit 5.Milwaukee 6.NY 8.Cleveland
"Baseball stathead, and card-carrying member of the ACLU.  And proud of it."