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Date:         Thu, 23 Jul 1992 18:16:00 CST
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      Russia, Bosnia, and "Slovakia," (#743)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.BITNET, jwales@iubvm.BITNET, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
              shlyakhter@huhepl.harvard.edu, kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com,
              christic@igc.org, 76701.103@compuserve.com

Russia-

Today, it was reported that Russia and Chile are almost to the end of
negotiations to deport Erich Honecker back to Germany to face 49
counts of manslaughter. The counts represent roughly 25% of those
killed trying to escape past the Berlin Wall, which Honecker was in
charge of building. He also was the originator of the shoot-to-kill
order that cost 200+ individuals their lives. The 79 year Honecker
could be in Germany's hands as early as the weekend, NPR reported
this evening.

Yesterday, it was reported that Russia and Ukraine traded "insults"
and charges about the frigate from the Black sea fleet whose
predominantly Ukranian crew mutinied and ran the vessel into the port
of Odessa, hotly pursued by several ships under firm Russian control.
Ukraine's top naval official denounced the mutiny, but indicated that
Ukraine will NOT give up the ship. The Russian fleet commander
threatened yesterday to seize the entire fleet, and place it under
the Russian flag.

4 pieces in RFE/RL today indicate economic troubles to come for
Russia, and then a vaguely ominous note. First, Prime Minister Gaidar
predicts a 1000-1600% inflation rate over the course of 1992.
Secondly, Vice-President Rutskou predicted a 27% drop in agricultural
output this year, and that it would take 6 years for agriculture to
"recover" (to what standard, one might ask!). Thirdly, oil exports
are estimated to drop $1 billion this year. Fourthly, the ruble rate
against the dollar jumped to 151.1 to the dollar, a 10% loss in
value. Then, the story by Alexander Rahr that I think is ominous.

Everything about this fellow Sergei Stankevich has become more and
more ominous. I recall saying a year ago that I saw Stankevitch as a
rising star in the Russian leadership firmament. I was right, but he
has shifted quite far to the right. Rahr's report states that
Stankevitcxh reportedly told Russian journalists that "reform will be
slowed down," and that a firm control will placed on the reform
process. He reportedly stateed that Russia will "follow its own
customs and traditions" in reforming, no loger following Western
direction in reforming. He stated again, as he was reported to have
done last week, that Russia would again "become a great power." I
think it is ominous in light of the anti-press moves, the coup
rumors, the threat to dismiss the Western-oriented Foreign Minister
Kozyrev and replace him with the increasingly more conservative
Stankovitch, the economic problems, and a restless military smarting
under charges of corruption and illegal arms selling.

US Ambassador to Russia testified to Congress yesterday that more aid
had to flow to Russia soon. He reported that President Yeltsin was
"starting to have problems," and that prices had risen 15-20% overall
this year.

Also, with no date given as to when this will happen, Solzhenitsyn's
wife Nataliya stated that her husband will "soon return to Russia."

Bosnia-

The city of Goradze, reported the "last city in eastern Bosnia
holding out," appealed to the world for relief from the relentless
siege by Serbian forces. Mortar, artillery and small arms fire had
three suburbs of Sarajevo "trapped" yesterday, reportedly the
heaviest fighting in three weeks. Also yesterday, a one hour, fifteen
minute attack on Canadian positions at the airport, with no
peacekeeepers reported wounded or killed. 20 were killed and 50
wounded in the past 24 hours in Goradze, NPR reported tonight. Last
night, NPR reported "at least" 7500 deaths have occurred in Bosnia
since their declaration of independence in February. It is estimated
that 10,000 refugees a day are coming out of Bosnia, though with half
of Europe's borders closed to them, it is difficult to discern where
they are going.

"Slovakia"-

The former Slovak Communist party, now called the Party of the
Democratic Left, plans to nominate Alexander Dubcek for President of
the country when the post is created next month, RFE/RL reported
today.


It would appear that a new chapter in the ongoing saga of Russia's
transformation is about to be written, one suspects by summer's end.
The chapter may be bloody, it appears that it will chronicle a sharp
shift right by a chunk of the government, and one also suspects more
fragmentation, in and out of the government, as the year progresses.
All reports indicate that Yeltsin is firmly in place, I remain in
doubt, though very much in the minority amongst Russia-watchers I'm
aware of. I guess we'll know soon enough, yes? VMS
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