From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Da Cubs (formerly Re: Cubs Win!^3)
Date: 17 Apr 92 06:19:50 GMT
Organization: Princeton University
Originator: news@ernie.Princeton.EDU

In article <1992Apr16.181448.960@lmpsbbs.mot.com> stanm@comm.mot.com writes:

Watch the line length, please.

>I'll remember the next time I try to put out facts to be prepared for the 
>flambeau.
>Another Wrigley Field thought comes to mind: Doesn't it appear strange that 
>former
>Cubs pitchers seem to do well after they've left Chicago, and that really 
>good pitchers fall flat on their faces when they don Cubs pinstripes? 
>Mike Morgan's performance last night vs Pirates is an example. Over the last 
>decade or so, guys like Rick Reuschel, Scott Sanderson, Dennis Eckersley, 
>Craig Lefferts, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter (though that's stretching a bit) and 
>so forth have hit career marks when they left the Cubs. Likewise, Danny 
>Jackson, Dave Smith, and, outside of 1984, Rick Sutcliffe have had 
>mediocre seasons in terms of W-L. 

Not especially.  A pitcher's W-L is determined half by how well he
pitches and half by run support.  Because of the Wrigley factor, the
Cubs have consistently overrated their offense.  Therefore, these
pitchers get relatively little run support, and thus end up with
mediocre W-L records.

Meanwhile, many of their pitchers do quite well, but their numbers don't
LOOK good, because Wrigley inflates their ERAs.

Bill James called this the devil theory of park effects.  That is, a
team in a hitters park (Wrigley,Fenway,the Launching Pad) will overrate their 
offense, not improving it when they should, and underrate their pitching.
Meanwhile, a team in a pitchers park (Shea,Oakland,Chavez) will consistently 
overrate their pitchers and underrate their offenses.

Incidentally, some of your examples are a little weak:
-- Reuschel, Lee Smith and Lefferts (in his one season), performed quite well 
	for the Cubs.
-- Sanderson pitched okay at times, with injury problems.  Eckersley also
	pitched well most of the time.
-- Morgan has ALWAYS sucked; *one* good year in Chavez doesn't prove very much.
-- Danny Jackson's problems involved being injury prone, something the Cubs
	should have realized before they signed him.
-- Dave Smith?  A 36 year old pitcher going from the Astrodome to Wrigley?
	Of *course* he didn't do well.
-- Sutcliffe went 18-10 in '87 and 16-11 in '89. NOT just one good year. 

>I hope leaving Three Rivers will help the Cubs. It seems that PGH is the 
>ultimate pit for them lately. 2-15 or so since 1990? I'm going to like the 
>STL series. Maddux vs Olivares Friday, with Castillo and Jackson to follow. 
>We should take two out of three, unless Jackson turns in another strong 
>performance or the defense plays like it did Tuesday night.

Probably because the Pirates have been an excellent team since 1990?

>It's games like last night which make me thankful that the ESPN exists to 
>take away local coverage WED nights. 

>--Stan "Stick a fork in 'im, he's done" Macasieb (stanm@comm.mot.com)

-- 
David M. Nieporent              |ALEast 92: 1.Baltimore 2.Boston 3.Toronto
niepornt@phoenix.princeton.edu  |4. Detroit 5.Milwaukee 6.NY 8.Cleveland
"Baseball stathead, and card-carrying member of the ACLU.  And proud of it."