From: yarvin@cs.yale.edu (Norman Yarvin)
Newsgroups: alt.current-events.somalia
Subject: Re: U.S. Is Not Going to War in Somalia for any Good Reasons
Date: 14 Dec 1992 22:01:54 -0500
Organization: Yale Computer Science Department
NNTP-Posting-Host: cathy.na.cs.yale.edu

egl1@cunixf.cc.columbia.edu (Elizabeth G. Levy) writes:
>yarvin@cs.yale.edu (Norman Yarvin) writes
>>There are factions in Somalia.  What do you think those "warlords" are?
>>There are about seven groups, each of which has several thousand armed men,
>>with personal weapons and in some cases armored personnel carriers and
>>artillery.  I would imagine none of these forces has thorough discipline, but
>>still there are leaders who are clearly in control.
>
>But I think the important question is the discipline of these troops. Will
>they lay down their arms if their leaders tell them to?  My impression so
>far has been that of free lancers and bandits.  Certainly, each warlord
>would have a core group of loyal troops (or else they would not be
>warlords), but what portion of their forces are only under nominal
>control?

The following is a quote of a posting to sci.military, which should clarify
that somewhat.  Since the groups are organized along clan lines, I find it 
plausible that the soldiers would obey orders from the clan leader.

|Newsgroups: sci.military
|From: Mike Schmitt <shuksan!major@bcstec.ca.boeing.com>
|
|  (From Army Times, Dec 1992):
|
|According to the Army Times, these are the factions and rival clans and
|general geographic area of their operations:
|
|1.  Somali National Movement
|    Leader:     Abdul Rahman Tur, in alliance with a committee of clan elders.
|    Manpower:   6,000 (in 1988)
|    Equipment:  Smaller militias in north have armored vehicles, artillery,
|                anti-aircraft guns, light arms.
|    Clan:       Isaak
|    AO:         Northwestern Somalia
|
|
|2.  Somali Salvation Democratic Front
|    Leader:     Colonel Yusuf
|    Manpower:   Several thousand armed men.
|    Equipment:  Some armored vehicles, anti-aircraft guns, maybe some
|                artillery, light arms.
|    Clan:       Majretain
|    AO:         Northern Somalia
|
|
|3.  Aideed Faction, United Somali Congress
|    Leader:     General Mohammed Farah Aideed
|    Manpoer:    About 10,000 armed men
|    Equipment:  Some armored vehicles, artillery, anti-aircraft guns, light
|                arms.
|    Clan:       Hawiye (Habar Gadir subclan)
|    AO:         Central Somalia (west of Mogadishu)
|
|
|4.  Ali Mahdi Faction, United Somali Congress
|    Leader:     "Interim President" Ali Mahdi Muhammad
|    Manpower:   5,000 or less armed men
|    Equipment:  A few armored vehicles, anti-aircraft guns, light arms, maybe
|                some artillery
|    Clan:       Hawiye (abgal subclan)
|    AO:         Capital city of Mogadishu
|
|
|5.  Somali National Front
|    Leader:     General Mohamed Said Hersi Morgan
|    Manpower:   A few thousand armed men
|    Equipment:  Several dozen armored vehicles, probably at least a dozen
|                artillery pieces, anti-aircraft guns, light arms.
|    Clan:       Marehan
|    AO:         Southwest Somalia
|
|
|6.  Somali Patriotic Movement
|    Leader:     Colonel Omar Jess
|    Manpower:   A few thousand armed men
|    Equipment:  Some armored vehicles and other heavy weapons
|    Clan:       Ogadeni
|    AO:         Southeast Somalia

------

>>(It might seem that arming the Bosnians would not be a major operation.  But
>>if we were to supply weapons we would also have to supply a constant stream
>>of ammunition and spare parts.  If we stopped the flow they would be in the
>>position of the Nationalist Chinese army or the South Vietnamese army.  We
>>would also have to make sure we were not giving them weapons that would
>>enable them to be the aggressor; this would take some very dangerous
>>intelligence work, for we certainly could not trust their own figures.)
>
>Actually, the present situation has been an arms boycott for both Serbs
>and Bosnians.  I'm arguing for a lifting of the boycott on the Bosnian
>side.

I may be mistaken, but I think the only way anything can get to the Bosnians
now is through an airlift.  Which is within our capacity.

You are right that just sending weapons need not be a major operation.  But
it also might not work.  Serbia is a larger country than Bosnia.  I would
think the Serbians can field a larger force.  Furthermore the war seems to
have degenerated into a static affair, with two Bosnian enclaves remaining
under siege.  The Bosnians were defeated by the Serbs in open warfare, but
when their fighters became packed together (relatively speaking) in these
two areas, and could entrench, they started being able to hold off the
Serbs.

Presumably we could give the Bosnians enough aid so that they could assume
the offensive.  But then we would have a great difficulty limiting that
offensive, especially if they wanted to trick us, and stockpiled ammunition
without telling us.

> Also, the Bosnians would have more incentive to fight than the
>Kuomintang or the ARVN.  In the latter cases, the wars were ambiguous.
>Vietnam was a war of national independence.  China, similarly, was a civil
>war. In the case of the Bosnians, they are defending their own homes
>against foreign aggressors ("we're fighting you 'cause you're here"). A
>more analogous situation may be Afganistan.

Ambiguous?  Communist rule is devastating; many conquests by a foreign
aggressor have been far less injurious to the invaded country than a
communist revolution.  Even today there are boat people fleeing communist
Vietnam.

Granted, these particular foreign aggressors are very brutal -- they have
recently been communists too -- but in both Vietnam and China, there were
plenty of people who hated the revolutionaries just as much as the Bosnians
hate the Serbs.

--
Norman Yarvin						yarvin@cs.yale.edu
 "American politics is, and has always been, a mere struggle between rival
  gangs of looters and exploiters." -- H. L. Mencken
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