From: dons@is.ussprint.com (Don Stadler)
Newsgroups: sci.econ
Subject: Re: Free Trade (was Re: article on and Japan)
Date: 3 Nov 92 17:52:50 GMT
Distribution: usa
Organization: US Sprint-IS

>>Just look at the tough time *all* college grads are having finding jobs
>>today.  I graduated in a recessionary period 10 years ago, which supposedly
>>was *much* worse than the one we have today.  It was easy to find a job
>>then, compared to today.  We are seeing examples *today* of our trade
>>policy's short sightedness.

Grads today have it pretty hard. Harder than I did (1982 grad)? I think not.
I was in the rust belt. It took me a year to find *professional* employment.

At the same time, I picked up job-hunting skills and self-confidence which 
has given me a permanent advantage in the job market. Many current grads
will learn the same lessons I did.

>Look.  2/3 of all engineers and scientists in the US have been working
>to support the Cold War.  IS IT ANY WONDER THAT WE ARE FALLING BEHIND
>IN SOME AREAS OF CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY?

.....

>>Unfortunately, millions of Americans are also now forced to have both
>>husband and wife work to keep up a living standard that used to take
>>only one spouse to earn.  You may be able to afford that imported VCR
>>and car, but it now takes 2 people to afford that.  That is a real step
>>back, and showing our living standard is falling.

Forced? No. Accept your parent's standard of living. You, too will be able
to live on one income. You'll have to live in an 1100 square foot apartment
or tract house (costs 40 - 60 K). One car, bought used. One TV, possibly
B+W. No microwave. You get the picture! Actually, you can probably do better
than your parents did on one income!

The real budget busters are large houses (2000 - 3000 sq ft.), fancy new
cars, and expensive vacations. You don't *need* these!
 
>If you think it is bad now, imagine paying off the $4 trillion debt
>we just ran up.  The Cold War cost us $10 trillion (1989 dollars),
>while Germany and Japan were investing in consumer tech.  We need
>to convert to a peace economy as soon as possible.  When we do,
>we will be able to compete with anyone.  In the meantime, a lot of
>people are inconvenienced.  I have many friends at Lockheed who are
>preparing for early retirement.

We *are* competing with *anyone*! Right now! American auto's are competitive.
So is our computer industry! We hold ~73% of the world's software market. 
Far East companies hold major market share in some of the underlying technologies,
such as active matrix displays (Japan), and DRAMS. But they have been unable
to translate this advantage into market share. Sony withdrew it's News 
workstation last year because it couldn't make headway against Sun and H/P,
with their 11 month product life cycles! 

Peter Drucker notes that 2/3 of the trade deficit resulted from the collapse
of our Latin American trading partners finances, NOT from increased Japanese
imports! Given that we HAVE improved our export orientation, the economic
recovery in Central and South America bids fair to help us eliminate the
trade deficit in the medium term, and perhaps even run a surplus!
 
>>You make the assertion that the TV business is a small part of the
>>US economy.  Today, it is.  BUT, years ago it was quite big.  We allowed
>>it to slowly die over the years.  From the header in your post, you 
>>appear to be part of the defense industry (just an educated guess).  
>>At the rate we're going, there won't be any US taxpayers rich enough 
>>to support that big defense industry.  That means YOU will be out of
>>a job too.  That is a crummy way to find out how serious this dumping
>>and unfair trade issue is. :-(

The TV business is a MUCH smaller segment of the WORLD economy than it was. 
The big Japanese electronics companies (Sony, JVC, Matsushita, etc) are just
beginning to find out what it's like to deal with a saturated market! The
Chinese will eat their lunch before all is done!
 
>Buck up.  Broaden your skills.  Get flexible.  Dont go crying
>to the govt--all they do is make it worse.
 
Excellent advice! I cannot understand all the whining I hear in this country.
We have been making it and will continue to do so. 


Don Stadler