From: sunder@altair.crhc.uiuc.edu (Srinivas Sunder)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc,alt.politics.elections,alt.politics.bush,alt.politics.clinton
Subject: Poll bounce for Bush???
Followup-To: talk.politics.misc, alt.politics.elections
Date: 21 Aug 1992 16:35:31 GMT
Organization: Center for Reliable and High-Performance Computing, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Distribution: world
NNTP-Posting-Host: altair.crhc.uiuc.edu

Posted w/o permisiion of UPI/ClariNet. I hope I don't get sued (a good
reason to vote for Dan Quayle??). He hates the liars... oops, lawyers.

**************************************************************************

	HOUSTON (UPI) -- Two polls show the Republican National Convention
gave President Bush the ``bounce'' he was looking for, chipping away at
Democrat Bill Clinton's pre-convention lead.
	But a third poll, conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News,
showed Thursday that Clinton had a commanding 25 percentage point lead
over Bush -- 57 percent to 32 percent.
	The Post-ABC poll of 721 registered voters was taken Aug. 14-18,
before the GOP Convention really got under way, showcasing former
President Ronald Reagan, first lady Barbara Bush and other Republican
stars.
	But polls taken during the convention tell a different story.
	A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll of 801 registered voters, conducted at
the conclusion of the GOP convention, but before the president's
acceptance speech, showed Clinton with a preference margin of 51 percent
to Bush's 39 percent. A similar survey before the convention showed
Clinton with 56 percent and Bush with 37 percent.
	The Houston Chronicle/Hotline Poll, conducted Saturday through
Wednesday by GOP pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Democratic
pollster Celinda Lake of Greenburg-Lake, showed Clinton leading Bush by
only 5 points -- 48 percent to 43 percent.
	A CBS News poll showed Clinton leading Bush 51 percent to 40 percent,
a deep cut in the 18-point margin that the Democrat held last week.
	Doug Bailey, publisher of the non-partisan Hotline Poll, said the key
to the poll results is not so much the size of the gap, but the trend in
the direction toward Bush.
	``The trend says we're heading for a dead-even race,'' he said.
	Goeas, agreed, saying ``We're now acknowledging from both sides,
we're looking at an extremely close race.''
	He said the numbers show that the convention through Wednesday has
been a success for Bush, with the president consolidating his Republican
base.
	``Bush has shown a 10 percent gain in the number of voters who
strongly support him, primarily among Republicans and in the South and
south central regions,'' Goeas said. ``The Republican vote has come home
in a very big way. I think we have to view that there is a bump at the
convention from looking at the data.
	``The difference between a good convention and a great convention now
lies in George Bush's hands and his ability to deliver a strong economic
message.''
	The Chronicle/Hotline poll of 2,000 registered voters shows Bush's
favorable rating increased as the convention progressed, from 41 percent
to 45 percent, while his unfavorable rating dropped from 51 percent to
46 percent.
	Clinton's favorable rating dropped from 56 percent to 52 percent,
while his unfavorable rating increased from 30 percent to 34 percent.
	Texas billionaire Ross Perot, who dropped out of the race last month
but hinted at ways Wednesday that he may get back in, was favored by
only 1 percent of the respondents.
	CBS said its poll of 1,204 registered voters showed that while
opinions on Bush have changed little, negative opinions about Clinton
have risen, apparently because of the GOP focus on family values.
	Much of the narrowing of Clinton's lead since last week is due to
movement among voters under 45, Catholics and in the Midwest and South --
the ``heartland'' areas that the convention has been targeting. There
was little change in preference among older voters and voters in the
Northwest and the West, CBS said.
	The poll also showed that the GOP argument to ``clean house'' by
electing more Republicans to Congress has had no impact. Last week, the
Democrats had a 10-point edge in the hypothetical election to the U.S.
House -- a margin they retained this week.

-- 
Srinivas Sunder                                         sunder@crhc.uiuc.edu

If my employer shares these views, I'd be most surprised.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Xref: sparky talk.politics.misc:40255 talk.politics.guns:19392