From: roger@crux.Princeton.EDU (Roger Lustig)
Subject: Re: Bonds "choke"?
Originator: news@nimaster
Reply-To: roger@astro.princeton.edu (Roger Lustig)
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1992 02:19:39 GMT

In article <1992Sep30.230048.27480@odin.corp.sgi.com> kubey@sgi.com (Ken Kubey) writes:
>In article <1992Sep30.210044.18881@adobe.com> snichols@adobe.com (Sherri Nichols) writes:
>>In article <1992Sep30.200436.5092@odin.corp.sgi.com> kubey@sgi.com (Ken Kubey) writes:
>>>>Come back when you can *define* choke.

>>>I don't think it's easy to put into numbers and statistics.
>>>If you really want me to, I'll make and attempt to put it into that form
>>>and will post it.  

>>Please do.

>I guess you need a good laugh :-)   Okay...

>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>Note: all of the values below are just rough guesses on my part
>      and may not reflect reality.  This is just to give all you
>      statistically minded folks an idea of how to define clutch/choke.

Translation: how Ken Kubey feels the pressure in watching the game is
how players perceive it when playing it.  

I dunno.

>Importance of a game:

>Average Regular Season Game:          1
>RS Game in a close race:              5

Wheeee!  If they'da borne down a little more in the average games,
it wouldn't *be* so close.  Are you sure players don't feel the
heat in April?

[rest deleted]

>Importance of a plate appearance:

>Runners on                       Outs
>3rd 2nd 1st              0         1         2
>-------------------------------------------------
>000                      3         2         1
>001                      6         6         4
>010                     10        20        40
>100                     30        50        40
>011                     40        50        60
>101                     50        60        50
>110                     50        60        80
>111                     40        80       100

Yeah, right.  Getting on base isn't as important as hitting with
men on.  The old RBI nonsense in its pure form.  Sorry, we're not 
convinced.  Coming through in those low-pressure, "low-importance"
situations, day after day, is what makes a winner.  Not just coming
thorough in those mysterious "clutch" situations that happen to pop
up like magic.  

MAKING those situations happen with great frequency is how games are
won.  

>Inning Multipliers:
>-------------------
>7th inning, close game - multiply by  2
>8th inning, close game - multiply by  5
>9th inning, close game - multiply by 10
>Extra Innings          - multiply by  8

Ah, I see.  A run scored in the first inning isn't as important as a 
run scored in the ninth.  Abner Doubleday must be turning in his
grave.  

Once more: the MOST IMPORTANT runs are the runs scored in the FIRST 
inning.  The one that gives your pitcher a comfortable lead.  The 
one that allows the manager to do all kinds of neat things.

>Bonus Multipliers:
>------------------
>Batter ties the game   - multiply by number of runs down
>Batter breaks a tie    - multiply by number of runs ahead
>Batter puts trailing team ahead - multiply by number of runs down * 2
>Batter wins the game for trailing team - multiply by # of runs down * 4

Why not just wire your pulse rate to the Importance-O-Meter and skip all
this nonsense?  This has nothing to do with how baseball is played,
as examination of how players perform in these situations will tell you.

It has everything to do with how you feel while WATCHING a game.  That's
not the same thing.  And projecting your emotions onto a ballplayer's
performance is pointless, imho.

>Examples:
>2 out bases empty single, 4th inning, no race   =  1 clutch point
>2 out, 9th inning Grand Slam to win WS Game 7 4-3 = 2000 * 100 * 10 * 12
>  which comes out to 24,000,000 clutch points (the best possible)
>Kirk Gibson's HR off Eck: 200 * 4 * 10 * 4 = 32,000 clutch points
>Chambliss' HR for NY vs. KC: 800 * 4 * 10 * 4 = 128,000 clutch points

Exactly.  These are Ken Kubey THrill Points.  

>To calculate a player's Choke Index:
>  Calculate the player's Expected Cluch Points Index:
>    Add up the value of all of his at-bats in the Series and multiply
>    by his regular season OPS.
>  Calculate the player's Total Clutch Points for the Series.

>Choke index = Expected Clutch Points Index / Total Clutch Points


Result: ALL players choke, because post-season stats are generally a little
lower than in the regular season.  Ba-bing.

Roger

Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball