From: kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt Bose "of Biscayzee")
Subject: Re: roy NL
Date: Wed, 09 Sep 92 01:11:26 GMT
Organization: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
Distribution: na

In article <1992Sep8.225538.3328@leland.Stanford.EDU> claudius@leland.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>In article <fxrnz6q@lynx.unm.edu> kbos@carina.unm.edu (Kurt Bose "of Biscayzee") writes:
>
>>And by yours, Nelson, Scott Cooper should have won the MVP award last year.
>
>Kurt, it is unfair to compare a player who played 14 of 162 games (8.6%) to
>someone who played 91 of 128 games (71.1%).
a
Yes, I knew when I posted it that it was the extreme case, but I trust the point
is made, no?  That there is a point at which Cooper's 16 RC/27 is worth less
than Karros's 4.5 RC/27.  By the same token, there is a point at which Karros'
4.5 RC/27 is worth more than Sanders' 5.00 RC/27.  The fact that the numbers
are where they are obscures that, but my position is that Karros is better when
he's playing than Alou or Sanders is when he's on the bench.

>a point.  I disagree that Karros has been a drain on the Dodger team.  Who the 
>>hell do you suggest?  I'll ask you this:  which is the farther dropoff:
replacing Alou with Matt Stairs or John Vanderwal, replacing Reggie Sanders with
>Dave Martinez, or replacing Eric Karros with Brian Traxler or (god forbid) Todd
>Benzinger?  The key flaw in your system is by assuming that average players are
>
>Hmmm.  Not that I agree with this model, but replacing Sanders with Martinez,
>you lose 37 points of OBP and 149 points of SLG.
>
>If you replace Karros with Benzinger, you lose 23 points of OBP and 124 points
>of SLG. :-)
>
OK, I'm using older stats, I guess, since I came up with a drop of 47 pts OBP
and 138 pts of SLG.  :)  I still stand behind the statement that it's worse
to replace Karros with Benzinger (or Traxler!!!) than it is to replace Sanders
with Martinez.

>
>Well, last year, they could have traded Murray and started Karros and not lost
>anything.  But that's not the point.  We have to look at what Karros would do
>for *any* team and what Sanders would do for *any* team to evaluate them
>fairly.  If we get extreme with your system, you can claim that Gary DiSarcina,
>since the Angels don't have another shortstop, is a valuable player.


Wanna know something, if the Angels are that desperate for a SS, then heck, 
yeah, he is valuable to them.  But that's just as silly.  There are players not
even in baseball who can get a .470 OPS, so there's no way DisCarsina is that
valuable.  (Yes, I butchered it.  Just like a Dodger infielder does to a 
grounder to the left side...)  But the fact is, you can't just compare them to
an "average".  I don't accept that you can tell me "Los Angeles would be better
if they played someone else" unless you tell me who they'll replace that person
with.  Replacement level, as mentioned below, is a better measure, but 
replacement level, and relative value, is much different for the Mariners at
second base than it is for the Phillies at second base.

>>That said, I am concerned with Karros' ability to get on base.  But I'm no less 
>>concerned about Reggie Sanders' fragility or Felipe Alou's ability to keep
>>Moises in the lineup (is Moises being platooned?  Karros would have higher stats
>>if he didn't bat against all righties...)
>
>This is one strike against Moises, although it is not as huge as you suggested.
>Up to this Saturday, of Karros' 115 starts, he started 64 against RHP (55.7%).
>By comparision, Alou started 38 of 71 starts vs. RHP (53.5%), and Sanders
>started 42 of 62 starts vs. RHP (67.7%).  If platoon advantage were a concern,
>you'd actually have to give Sanders more credit than Karros.

I found the reason for the supposed difference in games played between Alou and
Sanders and Karros.  When I was number crunching, I looked for a gauge of 
playing time better than at bats (which are weighted towards out-eaters) and
games played (which is biased towards defensive replacements) and decided on 
DefInnings/9, to estimate games played.  Since I was crunching numbers on the
computer, it just took the McWeekly numbers and converted them, but it failed
to take into account the defensive innings for Sanders in left.  It doesn't
completely close the gap, but it puts the gap into the realm of error.

>>
>>How about calculating total RC/27, and multiplying by PA somehow?  Or games?
Yes, there are biases inherent in that measure, and I'm aware of them, but there
>>must be some kind of a tradeoff in terms of playing time versus production.
>>
>>At what point do you trade off between a world-beating part-timer and a steady
>>but unspectactular regular?  Unless both sides can agree on a solution, you're
>>going to have fights about this, and you're both just yelling hot air.
>
>I believe Palmer and Thorn used something like "replacement level," which is
>lower than average.

Well, that isn't quite what I was asking.  I'll put it another way.  Is 100% 
of a player 70% of the time better or worse than 70% of that player for 162
games?  How do we find the correct value tradeoff between talent level and
durability (or dependability or whatever)?  

>>
>>Frankly, I think the stability Karros has given the Dodgers at first (and the
>>fact that Benzinger sucks lava rocks) is enough to set Karros above the part
>time player Alou.  Sanders' problem is similar in that while he's been a better
>>player when he's played, right now (AFAIK) he's got a punctured lung or some
>>such.  The point is, he's hurt, and he's always been hurting.  That counts 
>>against him.  It has to.  Still, I won't argue against him for ROY the way I
would Alou.  Alou isn't particularly special. But my vote goes to Karros, though
>>I admit that's mostly because I know that he will walk in his career.
>
>But you lose more if you replace Sanders with Martinez than if you replace
>Karros with Benzinger, if you use that argument.

Again, not at the time this paper's dated.  :)

I've said before that I wouldn't argue if Sanders won the ROY.  I will argue the
choice of Alou as ROY.  But to claim that Karros is _costing_ his team games is
silly.  When we argued about Murray, there was clearly a better choice in
Magadan.  With Karros, there's not that kind of an option.  What criterion is
used to determine ROY, anyway?  Best numbers?  Leadership?  Value to team? IQ?

-- 
Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) *  kbos@carina.unm.edu * Make outs, not walks!
Keeper of the R.S.BB FAQ, and Junior Stathead {tm} * OK, so I AM the AntiChrist.
Be kind...don't disillusion the RBI-lovers. * Net.Agent, "Doublin" David Rossing
Less widely published as Noel Steere; less likely to rampage than Gary Huckabay.
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball