From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Astros Contenders?
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Distribution: na
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 1993 09:42:42 GMT

In <1993Jan7.135620.16322@cs.tulane.edu> eebonar@sn01.sncc.lsu.edu writes:
>In <C0Gurv.84H@cs.dal.ca>, niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma) writes...
>>In <Jan.6.22.37.20.1993.23150@pilot.njin.net> gajarsky@pilot.njin.net (Bob Gajarsky - Hobokenite) writes:

>> You do make decent points and perhaps I was harsh. I did think about park 
>>factors but the OBP's posted by Anthony makes him clearly below average.
>>Cedeno was awful as you agree.

Though Cedeno was awful in 92, in 1991 he actually looked decent
(243/270/418)  Park adjust, and note that he was 21 at the time he did
that, and he doesn't look bad.

The problem is his strikeout/walk numbers.  When someone has a ratio
*that* bad, I find it hard to believe he'll continue to hit.  
(1991: 74-9,  1992: 71-14)

>	I think you were too harsh on more then just Anthony and Cedano.
>Taubensee and Gonzalez are both young and have shown the ability to walk
>(an important part of showning ability to improve in my opinion).  Neither
>one of them was good last year but I'd expect that both of them can post
>OBA's of over .310 (and Gonzo should be able to give a decent slugging 
>average also).

Gonzalez is another person who had a much better 1991.  In 91, he was
254/320/433, and in 92, he did 243/289/385.   Again, those 1991 numbers,
when park adjusted and when you note that he was 23, don't look bad.

Taubensee, on the other hand?  Blech.  He did post a 402 OBP in Tuscon
in 74 ABs in 92, but really, what ability to walk?  His next highest was
a 377 in 287 AB at Colorado Springs, one of the best places to hit around.

He is young, so I guess there's a chance for him, but I'm not optimistic.
Actually, now that I look, I should change that to "optimistic in the
near future."  He hasn't played that much minor league ball -- he jumped
from A to AAA with only 127 ABs in AA, and then from their to the majors
with just 361 ABs in AAA.

>> The main point was that if you look at the Astros team you don't see a whole
>>lot that makes you think they can win 90 games as one poster stated. I think
>>people are looking at the Astros and saying "Hey they won 81 games last year.
>>Swindell and Drabek add 7-8 wins and expansion adds a few more". The factor
>>of expansion and the new pitchers may add those extra wins as could the   
>>improvement of their young players. But there are other very strong factors
>>which are pushing them backwards also. I think 85 W's is more than fair but
>>when I look at their players I think sub-.500. I'd pencil them in at 81 myself
>>but I'll give them 85 for the benefit of the doubt. Maybe I'm an idiot for
>>doing so.

>	I normally don't really add up wins but I'd have to say that they
>should reach around 90.  They should have won 75 last year.  Adding two
>good-great pitchers and dropping two of the worst 5 pitchers in the NL should
>be worth 10 wins.  Anthony, Gonzalez, Taubensee and whomever they play at
>shortstop should be worth a combined 5 wins more then last year j.  Caminiti
>will not be as good as last year but Bagwell should be able to make up the
>difference.

I don't think Anthony/Gonzalez/Taubensee/Uribe are going to be worth 50
runs more than last year's crew.  They're also losing Incaviglia, who
had a very decent year.

>	They can't contend.  I expect them third or fourth depending on how
>well LA does.  Atlanta and Cincinati are well ahead of them.  LA and San
>Diego are tied with Houston in the middle somewhere.  San Fran and the 
>Rockies are left to the bottom.

There's no way in hell that LA is near San Diego at this point, unless
Strawberry and Davis both bounce back to their best seasons and don't
get hurt and Tim Wallach *does* get hurt.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Is it too early to start making predictions for 1993?
niepornt@phoenix.    | Probably, but that never stopped me before.
   princeton.edu     | ALE: Baltimore ALW: Chicago NLE: Montreal NLW: Atlanta
Baltimore Orioles 93 | AL MVP: Cal Ripken  AL Cy Young: Mike Mussina
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball