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Date:         Wed, 27 Jan 1993 08:33:07 -0600
From:         "VALENTINE M. SMITH" <CDELL@UMKCVAX1.BITNET>
Subject:      CIS, Russia, Croatia, Bosnia, and ..., (#807)
Comments: To: val-l@ucf1vm.bitnet, jwales@iubvm.bitnet, olsenj@stolaf.edu,
          kousen@rayleigh.res.utc.com, klur@maristb.bitnet,
          srdjan%cathy@kri.fer.yu, christic@igc.org, blank@physics.ucla.edu,
          76701.103@compuserve.com

Bad lungs, car being stolen, writing a draft statement for HistNet
over the weekend, preparing for the class I begin teaching this
coming Saturday, and filling out grad school applications has taken
far too much time this past week, so I've been quiet on this front
dealing with all that stuff. I warn you, this may be somewhat
lengthy.

CIS-

The CIS summit in Minsk on the 22nd apparently solved some things,
but left as many or matters unresolved. Of the ten (who else besides
Georgia isn't in this "orbit?" Azerbaijan?), seven signed a "draft
charter" for a CIS of the future. Turkmenstan, Moldova, and Ukraine
refused to sign, reportedly stating that they had no desire to become
part of another Soviet Union. However, at least Ukraine's Kravchuk
was reported to have said that Ukraine intended to be a part of the
CIS despite its not signing the proposed charter. Turkmenstan's
representative reportedly stated that to sign and/or abide the
charter would only serve "to restore central control" avoer the
constiuent parts of the CIS. It appears that the seven (or ten) did
agree to an internal currency system run by the Russian central bank,
with Russia controlling 50% of the assets. The "CIS states" agreed to
meet again "in the spring" at Yerevan, the capital of Armenia.

Russia-

Russia sounded warnings that the UN had better condemn Croatia for
its cviolence in Krajina as it had condemned Serbia, Russia's
historical ally in the "old" Yugoslavia.

Today it was announced that 12 of the "putsch plotters" would be
placed on trial for treason against the old Soviet Union on 14 April,
and it was announced that the defendents would be released from
custody until the trial under pledges to remain in Moscow. As they
had been in prison over a year and several were "elderly;" it was
apparently felt that being out of custody would help the twelve
better prepare for their trial at the Russian Supreme Court than
might occur were they to stay imprisoned. The report said that
Mikhail Gorbachev would "probably" be a witness against the men.

Last night, Thomas Pickering, currently US Ambassador to India, and
former Ambassador to the UN, was named Ambassador to Russia. He will
work with or under Strobe Talbot, Amassador at Large to the CIS
states.

Croatia-

On Friday, Croatia attacked Serbs in Krajina, reportedly to capture a
bridge to link north Croatia with south, open a route to the
Adriatic, and to break the one year hold on a third of the country by
the Serbs. Troops strength in the foray wildly varied, from 6,000 to
40,000, along with tanks and heavy artillery. It was said yesterday
that President Tudjman is under great pressure to react against the
Serb "occupation," or lose "local elections" scheduled in the next
few weeks. At several points through today, Tudjman "declared the
fighting over," only to have "independent reports" state that as late
as today, a "heavy artillery barrage" was being fired at the Serbs.
Serbs in Belgrade clain 500 civilians and 300 hundred odd militiamen
had been killed in the fighting, now at six days old despite Croatian
assertions to the contrary. Belgrade has warned on several occasions
that may intervene; it was reported that recruiting was already going
on in Serbia, and some reports have stated that Serb "volunteers" are
already fighting in Krajina.

As mentioned, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia V. Churkin called for
international sanctions against Croatia, and a cessation of fighting.
Meanwhile, France stated it was sending a carrier to the region after
two French soldiers in a UN contingent were killed in a crossfire.
More UN soldiers are reported this morning to be trapped in the
Krajina while opposing forces slug it out.

In Vukovar on Friday, it was announced that a mass grave had been
found. At the time of the Serbo-Croat "war" of 1991, 175 patients
from a hospital had been marched off by Serbs, and never seen again.
Sources claim that perhaps 200 bodies are in this grave.

Lord Owen said yesterday that Croatia had "illegally" rearmed this
past year (despite the embargo), and that this renewed outbreak of
fighting between Croat and Serb was an example of what would happen
if arms buying were "legal," as Izetbegovic and the Bosnians have
been demanding. However, Owen stated that fighting was "not likely to
spread."  Both Owen and Vance welcomed a UN resolution condemning
Croatia's aggression into UN-"protected" "pink zones."

Bosnia/Croatia-

Yesterday, it was reported that Croats and Bosnians are fighting hard
with heavy weaponry against each other in three villages near
Sarajevo, while yesterday saw heavy artillery fire directed at
battered Sarajevo, the worst in several weeks. Reports this morning
indicate that this artillery and mortar fire are continuing, much of
in the vicinity of UN headquarters in the city.

Peace talks in Geneva have been focussing on the boundaries of the
ten proposed provinces, apparently rather heatedly; but the
negotiations continue.

Romania/Bulgaria-

The US warned both Romania and Bulgaria not to break the Yugoslav
embargo after an incident where a barge captain from one of these two
countries was caught headed for Serbia, arrested, let go again after
promising to leave the area, and when observed heading towards
Serbia, the captain reportedly threatened to dump or burn his fuel in
the Danube if someone attempts to arrest him again.


The Croatian fighting threatens to disturb the fragile negotiations
in Geneva over Bosnia, and calls from the right-wing nationalists in
Serbia demand military action against Croatia quickly. Milosevic is
downplaying this latest outbreak of fighting, choosing in a recent
speech to focus on "fighting crime, economic development, and peace."
He reportedly did not mention the fighting in Croatia at all. As
Yeltsin begins a three day visit to India today, it would appear that
he leaves behind him a dubious state of affairs with the CIS. Some
would say the CIS is tottering on dead feet; it would appear, as has
been said many times in recent months, that the CIS IS in a less
unified position every week. I continue to believe the CIS will be
"dead" by summer or early fall. It's constiuent parts may be
healthier for it. THe "unified currency" proposal may also be why
Ukraine chose not to sign the charter, while at least part of Moldova
still appears to be inclined to rejoin Romania. Europe remains
unsettled, it would seem this state of affairs will continue for some
time. VMS
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