From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1992 18:52:51 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                22 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 327, 11/22/92
10.7 FLUX=166    90-AVG=127        SSN=107      BKI=0123 3333  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B8.6     FLU1=1.7E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1124 4333  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=004,006,019,031,023,031,025,029   DEV-AVG=021 NT     SWF=02:006
 XRAY-MAX= M1.6   @ 2310UT    XRAY-MIN= B7.3   @ 0139UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0610UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1645UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 2000UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 0845UT   BOUTF-MIN=55381NT @ 1936UT  BOUTF-AVG=55411NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1851UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-018NT@ 1228UT  G7-AVG=+064,+025,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1850UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-031NT@ 0852UT  G6-AVG=+082,-006,+027
 FLUXFCST=STD:165,160,160;SESC:165,160,160 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,025,020/025,025,015
    KFCST=3335 5334 3335 5334  27DAY-AP=009,025   27DAY-KP=2232 2233 4435 4432
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.4@1307UTC;**MINFLR:M1.6/2N@2310UTC,N11E76(7348)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate due to an uncorrelated
       M1 X-ray event at 22/1307UT.  The largest flare of the day
       originated from new Region 7348 (N13E76) at 23:10 UT and was
       rated a class M1.6/2N flare.  Both of these M-class flares were
       rather impulsive.  The remainder of today's activity consisted
       of small C-class and subfaint flares. Regions 7345 (S24W04) and
       7346 (S07E06) continued to show decay but are still the largest
       Regions on the disk.  The only other new region assigned today
       was Region 7347 (S07W11).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7345 and 7346 still have the best
       flare potential. Region 7347 has shown explosive development
       and is expected to continue to develop.  New Region 7348 also
       has the potential to produce additional isolated minor M-class
       flares.  This region is still too near to the limb to discern
       any significant detail, but it does contain at least one large
       H-type spot.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations saw a
       period of minor to major storming around midday.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the entire period
       due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 23 nov-25 nov

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 nov-25 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/30
                        Minor Storm           25/25/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/10/10

            HF propagation conditions began to show signs of
       deterioration as the day progressed.  Levels of geomagnetic
       activity have begun increasing as the coronal hole moves into a
       favorable geoeffective position.  Conditions are expected to
       continue below normal over most regions for the next 48 hours.
       High and polar latitude paths will suffer the heaviest
       degradation.  Daylit paths may see some brief SWF episodes due
       to minor solar flares.  Gradual improvements are expected after
       25 November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7342  S08W78  136  0050 CSO  06  005 BETA
7345  S24W04  062  0200 ESO  14  018 BETA
7346  S07E06  052  0470 EHO  14  023 BETA
7347  S07W11  069  0030 CAO  05  010 BETA
7348  N13E76  342  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7337  N07W80  138                    PLAGE
7340  S06W49  107                    PLAGE
7343  N08W59  117                    PLAGE
7344  S15W27  085                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 NOVEMBER TO 25 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7332 S22   323


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1137 1141 1144 7348  N12E81 C3.3  SN    290
 1301 1307 1310              M1.4       8000
 1446 1446 1447                          130
 2008 2008 2009                          280
 2306 2310 2315 7348  N11E76 M1.6  2N     57 72



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
68   N05W28 N01W51 N05W53 N18W30  104  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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