From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: sci.space.news
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 October
Date: 6 Oct 92 06:37:40 GMT
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov


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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               05 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 279, 10/05/92
10.7 FLUX=130.0  90-AVG=122        SSN=205      BKI=1111 1211  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B4.2     FLU1=2.3E+06  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=1211 2221  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=005,009,005,007,008,017,008,009   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=01:013
 XRAY-MAX= M2.0   @ 0931UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 0339UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1115UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1320UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= -2.7DB @ 0935UT     PCA-MIN= -3.6DB @ 2035UT    PCA-AVG= -2.9DB
BOUTF-MAX=55431NT @ 1344UT   BOUTF-MIN=55416NT @ 2019UT  BOUTF-AVG=55424NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+099NT@ 1524UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 0352UT  G7-AVG=+082,+037,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 0756UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-020NT@ 1524UT  G6-AVG=+092,-014,+024
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,130;SESC:135,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2332 2223 2332 2223  27DAY-AP=020,087   27DAY-KP=3454 4322 5768 7444
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.0@0931;**MINFLR:M1.4/SN@1522,N11E33(7305);
          **SWEEP:IV=3@1516UTC;**TENFLR:150SFU@1516UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was moderate.  An optically uncorrelated M2.0 x-ray flare
was observed at 09:31 UT.  The source may have been departed Region 7293
(S09E97).  A second class M1.4/SN tenflare was observed in Region 7305
(N11E33) at 15:22 UT.  This event was accompanied by a strong Type IV sweep
and a 150 sfu tenflare, both at 15:16 UT.  It may prove to be somewhat
geoeffective on 07 or 08 October.  It had a fairly long-decay x-ray
signature.

     Region 7303 (S12E05) grew very significantly over the last 24 hours from
a small CSO group of only 30 millionths to a DKI group of 240 millionths.
Already, this region has formed a fairly decent magnetic delta configuration
on the east side of the central spot complex with the trailer spots of
opposite polarity.  Tight gradients are developing in the delta.  The system
is becoming better organized for producing potentially energetic activity.
Additional growth could spawn an isolated major flare from this region.

     No new regions were numbered.

     Solar activity is expected to continue low to moderate.  There is a
fairly good possibility for additional minor M-class flares from Regions 7303
and/or 7305.  Region 7303 has increased sufficiently in magnetic complexity
to be considered a possible threat for an isolated major flare.

     The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours.  The field
should continue mostly quiet to mildly unsettled over the next 48 hours.
There is a chance todays minor M1.4/SN tenflare could enhance levels of
activity on 07 or 08 October to unsettled or mildly active levels.

     HF propagation conditions have been normal over all regions.  Conditions
are expected to continue normal over the next 48 to 72 hours.  A moderate
risk exists for minor signal degradation (fading and absorption) over the
middle and low latitude daylit signal paths due to solar flare activity.
Short wave fadeout activity has been observed in conjunction with recent
minor M-class flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7294  S12W73  044  0200 HHX  03  001 ALPHA
7295  N13W54  025  0040 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7296  N07W52  023  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7298  N17W17  348  0020 BXO  05  006 BETA
7299  N13W01  332  0000 AXX  01  003 ALPHA
7300  N13E20  311  0050 CSO  07  013 BETA
7301  S16W01  332  0040 DRO  08  013 BETA
7302  S15W38  009  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7303  S13E04  327  0240 DKI  08  016 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7304  N03W21  352  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7305  N12E29  302  0110 DAO  06  015 BETA
7306  S07E51  280  0020 BXO  06  008 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 OCTOBER TO 08 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7280 S12   222


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0913 0931 0956              M2.0
 1319 1323 1330              B7.3        260
 1509 1522 1601 7305  N11E33 M1.4  SN    240 150       IV
 1540 1543 1545                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
05/ 1509     1522     1601       N11E33   LDE    M1.4   52     3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
59   N07E29 S03E19 S02E02 N15E10  325  ISO   POS   008 10830A
60   N27E40 N12E37 N22E28 N32E32  299  ISO   POS   004 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **