From: thf2@ellis.uchicago.edu (Ted Frank)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Date: 7 Apr 92 03:12:26 GMT
Reply-To: thf2@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago Computing Organizations

In article <1169@yetti.UUCP> darryl@cs.yorku.ca (Darryl Gamble) writes:
>In article <1992Apr5.164309.4694@cs.cornell.edu>, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>|> Of course, their offense is overrated too.  Position by position:
>|> Reed vs. White	White was better in his career year, but not by
>|> 			incredibly much.  It'll probably be pretty close.
>
>Oh yeah...let's see Jody has 13 HR's over the past three seasons, and 14 SB.
>White had 17 HR's and 33 steals last year alone.  Fairly big edge to Reed in
>average, but come on look at those numbers above.  Pretty close ? I think not.
>Edge to White and he plays great center field defense.

How does great center field defense help your offensive lineup?

Jody Reed had his worst season last year, and he still had a higher OBP
than White in his best season.  In 1988-1990, he outslugged White twice,
and just missed a third time.  He's consistently had an OBP sixty points
higher.  Edge Reed.

>|> Plantier vs. Carter	No contest.  Plantier will out-hit, out-slug, and
>|> 			out-walk Carter.  By approximately two and a half
>|> 			miles (or 150 points of OPS, whichever you prefer).
>
>I admit I really like Plantier.  And he could very well, out hit, slug and will
>definitely out walk Carter.  But Carter does drive in runs.  I know, I know...
>but let's make sure Plantier doesn't have a hole in his swing somewhere first,
>alright ?  Let's call this a wash for now.

Let's see, Plantier *might* have a hole in his swing, against someone nine
years older who *does* have a hole in his swing.  Sure, Carter drove in 108
runs, but he ate up 488 outs in the process.  Plantier drove in a third
as many runs while making well under a quarter of the outs.  Edge Plantier.

>|> Vaughn vs. Bell	Can't really call this one.  But if I had to, I'd
>|> 			give Vaughn the edge.  The power is the difference.
>|> 			They both hit for a reasonable BA, and Vaughn
>|> 			probably won't walk much more often.
>
>I don't think Derek Bell was given Minor League Player of the Year for nothing.
>I think this one is a edge for the Jays, and I'm not even that high on Bell.

Well, both Bell and Vaughn played in the International League in 1990-91,
so we can compare.

Bell, 228 G, 263 for 859, 35/17/20, 48 SB, 80 BB, 306/372/456.
Vaughn, 177 G, 178 for 620, 36/1/36, 5 SB, 104 BB, 287/397/523.

Vaughn walks more and has more power, while Bell has more speed and legs
out more singles.  I think Bell will have a better career in the long
run, but it's not unreasonable to say that Vaughn will outplay him this
year.  I'd give it 2-1 odds.

>|> Rivera vs. Borders	Slight edge to Borders, but not by much.
>
>Let's take a look at Rivera's numbers...20 HR's, 
>.247 avg. over past three years.
>Borders has batted .263 while hitting 23 homers.  
>I would have to call this even. 

Rivera had a better 1989 and 1991, but Borders had a much better 1990.
Rivera never walks, but Borders walks even less, negating the BA.
Borders has more potential on the upside for a better season, but
Rivera's more consistent[ly bad].  In short, Borders at his best is
much better than Rivera at his best, but Rivera at his worst is better
than Borders at his worst.  Okay, I'll stop beating a dead horse. Edge
to Borders.

>|> The Sox lineup has more power in practically *every* lineup position,
>|> and more OBP in *every* lineup position.  I don't even see it as being
>|> close.
>
>Well, when you say things like White and Reed are pretty close, I think your
>a little, shall we say, biased.  Perhaps looking through Red Sox coloured
>glasses ?  (Of course, almost everyone in this group knows your a Red Sox fan
>so that's expected.)  I think Boston does have as good an offense IN THE
>NUMBERS as the Jays, but there is one other very important thing.  The Red Sox
>are putting up there numbers in Fenway...on of the best hitters parks in the
>majors.  

And the Blue Jays are putting up their numbers in SkyDome, an even better
hitters park.  Between 1988 and 1991, White's only had one better season
than Reed (and he was still worse in OBP in all four), the only bias in
calling them close is a Toronto bias.

But about these stadiums:

Red Sox BA/HR/RBI, Home:	277/69/359	Road:	260/57/332
B Jays  BA/HR/RBI, Home:	269/75/340	Road:	246/58/309

Red Sox ERA,	Fenway:	3.91, Road: 4.14
Blue Jays ERA,  Sky Dome: 3.83, Road: 3.16.

Quick, which park favored hitters more?	
-- 
Ted Frank          + "A word is not a crystal, transparent and unchanged, it
1307 E 60 St, #109 +  is the skin of a living thought and may vary greatly in
U o' C Law Skool   +  color and content according to the circumstances and
Chi, IL 60637      +  the time in which it is used."  --  Holmes
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball