From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 August
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 19 Aug 1992 02:49:44 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               18 AUGUST, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 AUGUST
----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 231, 08/18/92
10.7 FLUX=129.6  90-AVG=126        SSN=102      BKI=0121 2121  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B3.9     FLU1=3.2E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2112 2222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,007,010,009,010,007,012,007   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.3   @ 0002UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.4   @ 1810UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0435UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2230UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1450UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2130UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55261NT @ 1118UT   BOUTF-MIN=55219NT @ 1718UT  BOUTF-AVG=55248NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+136NT@ 1910UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+001NT@ 0138UT  G7-AVG=+093,+039,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+147NT@ 2045UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-007NT@ 1535UT  G6-AVG=+103,+003,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,127,124;SESC:130,125,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=2224 4112 2224 4112  27DAY-AP=046,019   27DAY-KP=2366 6353 4433 2333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-2153UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity remained low.  The largest flare of the day was a class
C4.3 x-ray event at 00:02 UT.  Region 7260 (N17W11) was responsible for most
of the activity today.  Weak B-class subflare activity continued to be
observed rather frequently throughout the day.

     Region 7260 continued to grow in area and is now 1040 millionths in area
(or approximately 3,120 million square kilometers) in an EKO optical
configuration.  The group still posesses a fairly small delta configuration.
The structure of the group has not changed significantly over the last 24
hours and is expected to continue to produce mostly small C-class flares.
There is a slight chance the region could spawn an isolated M-class flare
over the next several days.

     Regions 7262 (N17W70) and 7264 (N16E32) stabilized in growth and were
relatively dormant.

     Other activity of interest included the disappearance of two
filaments.  The most impressive eruption occurred near N45W15 sometime
early in the UT day.  This filament spanned approximately 30 degrees.  There
is a slight chance this eruption could become geoeffective near 21 August.
The other filament was centered near N01W53 and was not as large as the
first.

     No new regions were numbered today.

     Solar activity is expected to be mostly low.  The possibility of an
isolated M-class flare from Region 7260 still exists.  This is the only
region visible with a reasonable potential for M-class flare activity.

     The geomagnetic field remained mostly quiet throughout the day.  The
field should be mostly unsettled to quiet over the next 24 to 72 hours.
There is a slight chance todays large filament disappearance could enhance
levels of geomagnetic activity to unsettled or mildly active levels near 21
August.

     HF propagation conditions remained normal over all regions.  No
significant changes are expected.  Near-normal propagation should prevail for
the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7256  S15W63  308  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7260  N17W11  256  1040 EKO  14  045 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7262  N17W70  315  0070 DAO  10  007 BETA
7264  N16E32  213  0040 CSO  07  009 BETA
7261  S23W63  308                    PLAGE
7263  N15W59  304                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 AUGUST TO 21 AUGUST
NMBR LAT    LO
7238 S20   145
7252 S16   129
7241 N14   120


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 AUGUST
-----------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1300 1300 1301                          240
 1325 1329 1334 7260  N18W07 C1.8  SF    130
 1401 1401 1402                          440
 1949 1954 1958 7260  N18W11 B9.7  SF    320


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/A1500Z         18/B0200Z      N45W15   DSF
18/B1704Z            A2358Z      N01W53   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **