From: josh@cbnewsh.cb.att.com (joshua.h.rosenbluth)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: More on Cecil Fielder
Date: 4 Sep 92 20:19:52 GMT
Distribution: na
Organization: AT&T

We all know that Cecil Fielder knocks in a whole bunch more runs than Runs
Created estimates him to be worth.  And while I know Runs Created is a
much more accurate way of measuring worth than RBIs, I found myself believing
that Runs Created underestimates Cecil's run contribution because:

         He bats in that part of the lineup where slugging is relatively more
         important than getting on base, so that if you would replace him
         with someone with the same Runs Created but a much higher OBA and
         lower SA, the Tigers would score fewer runs.

I then did some analysis and found that the Tigers wouldn't have scored less
runs, and discovered some interesting things along the way.

Read on if you want to see the details.

1)  Consider these two hitters:

               AB   H   2B   3B   HR   BB   BA   OBA   SA   RC   OUTS
1991 Fielder   624  163 25   0    44   78   .261 .347  .513 110  461
Whosis         581  174 25   2    10   121  .299 .420  .401  98  407

Fielder and Whosis create runs at the same rate per out, but Whosis is
an "on-base" guy, Fielder, a "slugging" guy.  In what situations would
you want Fielder up.  When would you want Whosis.  To answer that I used
Pete Palmer's expected runs table (Page 153, *The Hidden Game of Baseball*),
for each of the 24 base-out situations (ranging from no one on and no one out
to bases loaded and two out).  For each base-out situation, I then computed
the increase (decrease) in expected runs from a single, double, triple,
home run, walk and out.  For simplicity, I assumed a single always scores
a man from second, a double always scores a man from first, and a single
has a slightly better than 50/50 chance of moving a man from first to third.
I multiplied these expected value changes by the probability of getting a
single, double, etc., for Fielder and Whosis.  The result is that Fielder is
at least 0.02 runs/plate appearance better than Whosis in only *2* of the
situations, both with 2 outs:  No one on base and man on first only.  Whosis
does better in *14* situations:  0 outs with anybody on base, 1 out with a
man on third or at least 2 guys on base, and 2 outs with men on 2nd and
3rd or bases full.  The other 8 situations were neutral.

At first I thought something was very wrong.  Shouldn't the two players have
the same overall runs?  But then I found the probability of being in each
situation from the July 1987 issue of *Sabermetric Review*, and the 2
situations in which Fielder has the advantage comprise 20% of the plate
appearances, while the 14 situations that favor Whosis comprise 19%.

What is amazing is that while subjectively I thought that the slugger would
have the advantage when men are on base, that is not true.  The slugger
gains an advantage as the number of outs goes up (getting on 1B with two
outs doesn't do much good), and with no one on base or men on first only
(a single will do just fine with men on second or third).  Cecil had a few
more chances with men in scoring position than the average guy, so the
Tigers would have done just fine with Whosis.

The most intriguing thing of all is that Whosis is more valuable in so
many more situations.  Being an OBA guy gives you much greater flexibility,
and is yet more reinforcement of Bill James' theory that OBA is more
important than SA (Sorry Cecil).

Josh Rosenbluth (attmail!jrosenbluth)

P.S.

The two-minute Fielder vs Thomas 1991 analysis.

Cecil had a 12 HR (44-32) advantage.  Thomas got on 1B, 2B or 3B an extra 87
times which we'd expect an extra 25 runs from equal guys batting behind
them.  Cecil knocked in an extra 12 teammates, but had 17 more PAs with men
(how many, I have no idea) in scoring position.  We'll call that a push.
Thomas used 80 fewer outs which gives his team about 13 more runs.  So far
its Thomas: 25+13-12 by 26 runs.  Plus there is probably another 10 runs
for Frank from moving runners from 1B to 2B or 3B from all of his extra
singles and walks (none of which are counted in Runs or RBIs).
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball