From: chill@walt.UUCP (Curtis Hill)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.basketball.college
Subject: Carolina Preview, Part II (still long)
Date: 29 Sep 92 20:51:37 GMT



Who's New?
----------

And now a quick word from what I've heard and seen about the new players
coming in this season.  One important thing to note is that, barring injury,
none of these players really have to contribute this season.  It would be
nice if Calabria or Davis could spell Phelps at the point for a few minutes
each game, but this isn't absolutely necessary.


Dante Calabria  6-5 192 G Beaver Falls, PA
27.6 ppg  8.0 rpg 3.4 spg 4.3 apg   Gibbons Rank: 42

A three point specialist who, allegedly, can play defense and handle the
ball.  Not supposed to be really quick.  Could be a Bob Sura-like player;
his size and skills are very similar.  Probably won't contribute too much 
this season, unless he spends some time playing backup point.

Additional comment:  In the Dapper Dan, Dante was very team-oriented and made
some really nice passes.  Sort of the Jon Barry-type, but without an idiotic
agent yet.[KD]

Ed Geth  6-9 240  PF  Norfolk, VA
14.2 ppg 17.3 rpg 2.3 spg  6.0 bpg   Gibbons Rank: 88

Raw talent who hasn't been playing for very long (four years, I think).
Put up phenomenal rebounding stats playing in the Norfolk area last 
season, yet was only voted 2nd team All-City.  I think this was a direct
result of his decision to go to Carolina more than how he played.  Lately,
I've heard he's not very quick, but if you average over 17 rebounds a
game in the Norfolk area, you've got to have some athletic skill.  Will
be brought along slowly, as his offensive skills allegedly are very weak.
Probably won't contribute much except garbage time this season.  Probably
more raw than Chilcutt, but more athletically skilled than Salvadori,
coming in.  Some concern whether he is an ACC caliber player. A chance he'll
be redshirted.

Larry Davis  6-3  175  PG  Fork Union, VA (via South Carolina)
15.0 ppg  7.2 rpg  5.0 apg   Gibbons Rank: In Prep School

Larry Davis.  Some hail him as the next Phil Ford; I think people are looking
for too much from this sleeper from South Carolina (via Fork Union Academy).
Larry averaged 44 pts per game in the smallest South Carolina high school 
classification as a senior.  However, he only shot 37% from the three point
line, and I understand many of his baskets resulted from driving to the
basket.  He supposedly has improved his three point shooting at Fork Union,
but since they don't keep that stat there, it's hard to say.  He was also
just learning to play the point at Fork Union, so I don't know how well he
does that, either.  Will contend with Calabria for the few minutes per
game Phelps doesn't play point.  Playing a year at Fork Union plus the
discipline he learned there (it's a military prep school) might give him
an edge over Calabria early.

Summer rumor: (Fall really) - Larry claims he's going to contribute this year.
I wonder if Dean knows this :)

Serge Zwikker 7-3  230  C   Potomac, MD (via The Netherlands)
21.5 ppg 12.0 rpg 5.5 bpg   Gibbons Rank: 34

The Power Serge.  A 7'+ monster from the Netherlands who looks like Lurch
from the Addams Family when he has a bad haircut.  Shoots the ball
exceptionally well for a big man (80%+ from the free throw line) and passes
well.  Doesn't have a lot of inside moves, though.  Serge is a bit slow and
a bit uncoordinated.  Learning to run correctly and how to use his feet on
offense and defense should help him a lot.  Needs to get stronger in his
upper body and increase his stamina.  Will likely be redshirted, which will
be perfect for Serge, as he'll be able to work on getting stronger, increasing
his stamina, and generally improving his game versus the three other Carolina
big men without worrying about game pressure.


What About This Season?
-----------------------


What does the 92-93 season hold for the Tar Heels?  Firstly, the squad 
should improve, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
The players will be older, one hopes wiser, and should have improved skills.
Secondly, they should also be more comfortable with each other.  Thirdly,
a strong schedule should both challenge the team and give them a good idea
of where they stand at any given time with the rest of the country.  Finally,
the absence of Hubert Davis could be a surprising blessing in disguise.


The Defense
-----------

The Carolina team should be stronger both offensively and defensively next
season.  This applies to individual players and to the team as a whole.
The defense was the strongest aspect of of Carolina's game last season,
and one would not expect this season's team to backslide.  Everyone
but Hubert returns, and the combination of Williams and Rodl means there
won't be a dropoff at that position.  The rest of the team should understand
better where the defensive lapses were last year and be able to work to
correct the flaws.  Plus, each player's one-on-one skills should improve
over the summer, which will enhance the team defense.


The Offense
-----------

The offensive side of the game is still a question mark.  There is the
glaring absence of Hubert Davis and the team's inability to hit medium and
long range jumpers.  This allowed teams last season to cover Hubert and pack
the rest of their defense back and force Carolina to shoot or attempt risky
inside lobs.  I believe that Donald Williams will be able to step in and
provide many of the skills that Hubert gave to the team, including a good
outside shot and the ability to drive and shoot.  However, it would be unwise
to expect him to perform at Hubert's exceptional senior season level.  This
fact could be the key to Carolina's success this season, as Donald will not
be considered the "go-to" guy that Hubert was, meaning that other players will
be expected to score, will look to score, and, in the best case, actually
score.  Without Hubert to go to so often and so consistently, the other players
should begin to look for their shots more, and the ones that succeed will
raise their confidence level and continue to improve.  Surprisingly, the
worst-case scenario might be that Donald comes in and does do as well as
Hubert, meaning the team will still look for one player to score too much
of the time.  I do expect Montross and Reese to become better scorers this
season, leading to a more consistent and effective Carolina offense.  However,
if this team shoots from the outside of 10 feet like everyone but Hubert did
last season, it could be a long, long year for UNC.


Playing As A Team
-----------------

Last season was the first time this team really got to play together for
long stretches.  During the summer after their freshman year, Phelps didn't
play much due to the rehabilitation of his knee, Reese went back to NYC, and
the team didn't have the same drive to work hard every day as a team as they
did the season before.  Rice and Fox really pushed everyone to work hard the
previous summer in scrimmages and conditioning, allowing the team to get more
comfortable with each other and ready for the upcoming season.  The freshmen
missed this experience, and no one stepped up and drove them during their first
summer.  Certainly each worked on their games, but they didn't get together as
a team.  With everyone healthy and staying in Chapel Hill this summer, a
strong desire to get better as a team, and adding the experience of the
previous season, this team should function more smoothly as a team, especially
on the offensive end, where they really need it.

We've discussed the offensive and defensive possibilities for UNC next season,
but let's be explicit about the specific strengths and weaknesses of this
year's squad.


What Are The Team Strengths?
----------------------------

The obvious strengths of this Carolina team are height, defense, experience,
and depth.  This is a tall team, with 3 seven-footers, although it's sometimes
considered small with Lynch at the power forward slot.  The defense is very
good, especially if they can keep teams from getting the ball inside too easily
or giving up too many open three-pointers.  This is becoming a very experienced
team.  This season, two seniors, five juniors, and one sophomore should get
the bulk of the time.  One hopes this maturity will pay off during the 
season.  Finally, this is a deep team.  The players on the bench aren't as
good as the starting eight, but the team won't be devastated if one of them
has to play for a stretch.


What Are The Team Weaknesses?
-----------------------------

The weaknesses of this team are very apparent: poor perimeter shooting,
poor execution of the fast break, a lack of a fluid big man, and depth
at the point guard position.  Last year's team was abysmal from 10 feet
and out, and things must improve for Carolina to have a great season.
The team ran the break terribly last season, resulting in a few games being
lost or closer than necessary because of the points not scored on break
opportunities.  The Ohio State game is an excellent example of this, as
Carolina could have been up by well over 10 points at the half, instead of
the five point cushion they ended up with.  Eric Montross is a fine center,
but he's not going to be confused with Shaquille O'Neal in a footrace anytime
soon.  UNC's big men have to get better at defensive positioning and the rest
of the team at denying the interior pass to keep from getting chewed up
inside by teams.  The NC State game at Chapel Hill was a prime example of
what can happen when these goals are not achieved.  Finally, the lack of depth
at the point is not as devastating as some of our local sportswriters like to
make it out to be.  The real problem is that playing Derrick 38 minutes a
night just isn't going to cut it. He'll wear down in individual games; he'll
wear down over the season.   Rodl can play the point for stretches, but he's
unable to defend quick point guards and has trouble with pressing defenses due
to his lesser ballhandling skills.  It would be nice if Larry Davis or Dante
Calabria (or Donald) prove to be able to handle the point for 4-5 minutes a
game, getting Derrick some rest that will keep him fresh for the entire year.

A Quick Word on "Quickness"
---------------------------

While the 92-93 edition of the Carolina basketball team will not be mistaken 
for the Lakers' "Showtime" of the early and mid 80's, this is not a slow team.
The quartet of [Phelps|Williams|Reese|Lynch] stack up against any other
four 1-4 players in the ACC, including FSU.  The team does become slow
if Rodl is playing guard and Sullivan the wing.  However, if Sullivan can
play power forward this season, Carolina should be quicker overall.  Other
than the lumbering presence of Montross, the starters should hold up fine.
There will be mismatches, and if Rodl, Sullivan, and Montross are on the floor
at the same time, you'll think you're watching a video of grass growing. But
it is a mistake to call this team, as a whole, unquick.


Strategies To Maximize The Team's Potential
-------------------------------------------

Now that I've listed the strengths and weaknesses of the team, offensively,
defensively, and overall, what might Coach Smith (or in this case, me) do
to maximize this team's potential?


Offensive Strategies
--------------------

Offensively, the key is diversity.  This team cannot be a one-horse show,
whether the horse is Montross, Reese, or Williams.  Each player must 
develop as an offensive threat to keep opponents from pulling the kind of
sagging defensive maneuvers used last season.  Certainly each player has
one or more skills to develop, the key being, of course, that more than one
actually has to do it.  I think I would work really hard on the motion
offense, with Montross and Lynch working in a high-low game.  If either
(or both!) could develop a consistent shot from the foul-line area, this
offensive strategy could be very effective.  Moving the opposing center out
to the foul-line would allow Reese, Williams, Rodl, and Phelps to penetrate
more easily if given the opportunity.

Another option presented by the Carolina system is the 'T' game, which
can be used as a single, double, or triple post game.  As a triple post,
it looks remarkable like the "Triangle" offense of the Chicago Bulls.
Why?  Because it is.  Dean derived the triple post T game from Tex Winter
(Chicago assistant, then Kansas State coach) over 20 years ago and it's been
used by Carolina teams ever since.  This system, which allows Carolina to use
two big men comfortably, might be used more this year, too.  It provides
excellent opportunity for the inside game, as well as providing open three
pointers for guards.

It is vitally important that both the inside and outside game develop this
year.  For each step either game makes, it will help the other, since a
stronger inside game will open the outside game up more and vice-versa.
When the open shots are there, they must be knocked down.  When the shooter
is covered, the big man inside must get the ball.

I think Williams and Montross could work very effectively in a two-man game
situation, and I would not be surprised if these two work that quite a bit
this year.

An interesting option this year might be using Lynch more on the wing.  He
certainly needs to learn the position if he ever wants to play in the
NBA.  There might be a need for this some this year against teams with the
really big wing players.  Reese isn't big enough to defend in the post, so
putting Sullivan or Salvadori at power forward and Lynch on the wing for some
minutes would be a nice option.  The problem was when this was tried last
year, the offense went to pieces.  I think this option will be tried, but if 
George is not producing or a threat offensively at this position, we'll be
back to Sullivan playing wing.

Finally, I hope these guys catch on to the basic motion offense soon.  This
group of players has had a really hard time running this offense well, and
it's just so important to run it well to have a great team.  Dean even said
last year that the younger players were still having trouble with this
offense, and that he didn't mean Donald.  This offense must be run effectively
this season.



Defensive Options
-----------------

On the defensive side of the ball, only a tune-up is in order.  Carolina had
a couple of rough games when the other team was burying lots of threes and a
couple of rough games when the other team was dumping the ball inside at will
and scoring easy baskets.  This is where the fine tuning must take place.

The most impressive aspect of the Carolina defense last season was the
seamless switching that went on in the man-to-man defense.  Right after
the European trip, the team began playing excellent man-to-man defense. When
there was a screen, the defense switched men and it was really hard to notice
that the switch had even occurred.

We can concentrate on a couple of games when the defense did not work
that well.  The first is the Notre Dame game.  Part of the problem was the
team mailed this one in and got their butts kicked.  However, another
problem was that LaPhonso Ellis kept getting open underneath.  George sometimes
has trouble guarding that kind of player (6-9, big and quick), especially if
he doesn't work his hardest.  There's really not much UNC can do about this
in a man-to-man defense this year, except to work a lot harder and to
concentrate one denying the ball.  If Derrick Phelps improves more defensively,
his pressure on the point man should disrupt many offenses.

The second game was the second NC State game.  The perimeter defense on the
three point shooters was poor, and when they were covered, the defenders
weren't working to keep the ball out of the post, where Kevin Thompson
got the ball in great position time and time again.  This team must learn
to remember who they're playing, what threats are on the floor, and to
play sound defense all the time.

Other nagging problems, which happened in the second State game as well as
some others, included a lack of a killer instinct and not hustling hard
enough (or appearing not to hustle hard enough) to get rebounds and loose
balls.

This season, Carolina must play more zone; work on the match-up version of
the point zone.  Play man-to-man only with certain lineups ore against teams
that present good matchups.  For example, playing
[Phelps|Rodl|Reese|Lynch|Montross] against FSU's 
[Ward|Cassell|Sura|Edwards|Dobard] man-to-man should be avoided.  Certainly
a zone anchored by Montross and Salvadori is a good idea; putting a quick team
outside (as was done toward the end of the season), even if they're a bit
short, is OK, as long as there's beef in the middle.

Now I'm not advocating abandoning the man-to-man defense.  And I even think
Carolina can trap a bit more this year (not like early season last year,
but more than was happening at the end) because the players will understand
the defenses better.  Some of Carolina's problems trapping were caused by
a slow team, but many were caused by guys forgetting their assignments and
leaving the opposition with easy dunks after breaking the press.  That's
why Hubert was playing back during the press at the end of the year.

I think Carolina should play 30-40% zone defense this year.  Less earlier
and more later to keep teams from seeing it too much.  And mix up a 2-3,
1-3-1, and 3-2 with the point zone to add some variety.  The zone must be
used whenever the coaching staff finds a weakness that the opposing team can
exploit to breakdown the man-to-man.  However, a fine line must be walked,
as the man-to-man must be used as much as possible, especially early in the
year. The limits of this team's man-to-man capabilities, depending on which
lineup is playing, must be determined early and under game conditions.



Curtis Hill
star3!walt!chill@mcnc.org