From: sandoval@stsci.edu
Subject: Re: Statheads and park effects
Organization: Space Telescope Science Institute
Distribution: na
Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1992 19:22:21 GMT

In article <1992Dec21.165907.10019@cs.cornell.edu>, tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>>And Boggs?  Don't be surprised if he hits 20 HRs.  He is (I think)
>>>an intelligent enough hitter to learn to pull the ball.
>>
>>I hate to say this, Valentine, but bullschott.  Wade Boggs is 35 years
>>old with a bad back.  Other than the rabbit-ball year, where he hit 24
>>home runs, he has never hit more than 8 home runs in a year.  
>>
>>His career high on the road (again, except for 1987) is 5 home runs.
>>
>>If he were that intelligent, and if intelligence were all that mattered,
>>rather than home run ability, he would have pulled the ball on the road
>>during his career and hit a few more home runs.
> 
> A good argument, *EXCEPT* I don't believe ballplayers can effectively
> alter their swing from game to game.  As anybody can tell you, Boggs
> pushed the ball to left field exactly the same whether at home or on
> the road.  He would very rarely pull the ball at all; when he did so,
> it would frequently go for a long HR.
> 
> But Boggs has no reason to keep that swing.  In fact, he has a strong
> incentive to entirely retool it.  He's not particularly weak...  If he
> *does* switch to a pull stroke, I think he will suddenly discover a
> "talent for hitting HRs".
> 
> Let me use an example from slow-pitch softball.  (No, I can't hit
> anything as small as a baseball...  I can't even hit a softball if
> thrown hard...  But I think the results apply.)  I use a swing very
> much like Boggs'.  As I am right handed, this results in my dumping
> the ball reliably in front of the right fielder (or at least
> over/through the second baseman, who is usually the weakest fielder).
> I can bat well over .500 with that swing, but almost never get an
> extra base hit.
> 
> On occasion, opposing teams have picked up on this and shifted the
> defense in that direction.  This usually involves moving the tenth
> fielder from short left to short right field, as well as moving the
> infielders over a bit.  I will then pull the ball down the line, often
> getting it past the outfielder for a triple or HR.  (We don't play
> with fences, so a line drive can go a long way...  And don't ask me
> what I would do if an opposing team put players *both* on the line
> *and* in short right field.  Those are the only two spots I know how
> to hit.)
> 
> Why can't Boggs do the same?  He has (or had) enough power to hit the
> Wall on the fly.  If he pulls the ball, that should *easily* be enough
> power to get it into the short porch in Yankee Stadium.
> 
>>I say Boggs won't hit more than 10 home runs next year, either.
> 
> And he won't, unless he radically changes his swing.  But he might...
> 
> -Valentine

   Well, this may not mean much, but I was at the All-Star game this last
year at The Murph.  You know who was hitting balls consistantly into the seats
in right during BP?  Boggs.  And I mean, they were shots.  They were going
at least 5 rows up, which is a poke in The Murph.

   If Boggs wants to increase his HR production, I don't see why he can't.  The
question is, does he want to?

      John