From: nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson)
Subject: Re: jobs, again
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1992 12:15:33 GMT
Organization: Hewlett-Packard Corporation, Chelmsford, MA

In article <37651@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu> jfh@reef.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky) writes:
>>>  I have repeatedly asked various people who think I'm
>>>  being too pessimistic to name the areas or industries
>>>  where they anticipate growth in good-quality jobs.
>>>  What would you advise a college freshman to major in
>>>  today?   What would you advise a laid-off autoworker
>>>  to seek training in?
>>>
>>>  Invariably, answer came there none.
>
>>I would agree 100%. I recommend re-reading E. F. Schumacher's 1973 classic,
>>"Small is Beautiful" to see how thoroughly ignored he has been and how our
>>failure to see the error of our economic policy has brought us to the state
>
>Corporations are leaving because of high taxes and regulations here in 
>the US.

  Perhaps Mr. Hranicky would care to document this?   While I certainly
  don't disagree that our tax and regulatory environment is nothing
  to brag about, I think Mr. Hranicky would have a hard time actually 
  showing a causal relationship between job losses to overseas com-
  petitors and these factors.  Most of the big US companies that are 
  downsizing are doing so all over -- HP's *worldwide* workforce is
  lower, as is that of many other companies.   You just plain *don't
  need* so many people to do what was once done.  Toyota can build 
  a car with half as many people as Ford can.    And in case Mr. Hranicky
  doesn't read the papers, the current economic downturn is *worldwide*.

  So while I also would like to see lower taxes and fewer regulations, 
  I think the issues are much more fundamental than that.


>On the subject of where someone should find a job, consider this:
>
>If the economy were allowed to flourish without the government pulling 
>massive amounts of capital from it, or passing stupid laws like the minimum
>wage law, or giving unions the power to push up nominal wage rates,
>there would be plenty of jobs for those who needed them.

  Evidence?   


> Also, where did all the workers displaced from the horse-and-buggy
> industries find more jobs?

 In new industries that employed lots of workers (e.g., autos).  We have
 lots of new industries today -- there are industries today that didn't
 exist *at all* a decade of two ago.  But they're not very labor intensive.

> The jobs would be out there is we had a free market.

 This sounds like religious faith to.

 
>Personally, I would advise college freshman to major in some computer
>related field (like me.)

 I hope it's not too late for him to reconsider his major:  Total
 employment by computer professionals in the US has dropped in
 *each* of the last 4 years (i.e., since BEFORE the recession began)
 and overall more jobs have been lost in the computer industry than
 in the auto industry during the same time (source: EE Times).   Right 
 now THE ONLY source that I've found projecting even *modest* growth
 in computer-related jobs is Megan Barkume of the BLS (a *government*
 agency, for Mr. Hranicky's information), and Barkume made the same
 projection five years ago and we saw how that turned out!

 So my question still stands:  what happened to all you net.optimists?


---peter








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