From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: MLB Standings and Scores for Mon, Jul 27th, 1992
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1992 19:49:41 GMT

In article <1992Jul28.183101.116@uwm.edu> paul@csd4.csd.uwm.edu (Paul R Krueger) writes:
>In article <1992Jul28.162536.6999@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>[The Orioles]
>>bullpen is one of the best in the majors, of course.
>
>  Don't forget about Milwaukee's pen! Orosco and Plesac are decent lefties,
>  and Austin and Fetters have been great setup men with 2.52 and 0.72 ERAs
>  respectively. Henry with a sub 3.00 ERA and 20 saves is a good closer.

I realize that.  The O's have Mills (1.81 ERA, dominating pitcher),
Frohwirth (unhittable *and* a workhorse, 2.05 ERA), and Olson (2.41
ERA) to close the games.  Not to mention stealing Clements from SD
for free.  Note that Frohwirth has pitched almost as many innings
as Austin and Fetters combined!

I would take the O's bullpen ahead of the Brewers.  Not that the
Brewers have a *bad* bullpen..

>>The pitching may not be as good as the Blue Jays, but the offense is
>>IMHO better.  Don't count the O's out yet.
>^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>  If so, not much. Any lineup with White, Alomar, Carter, Winfield, Gruber
>  (if he ever breaks out of his slump), and Olerud isn't TOO bad.

Huh?  Olerud is the third best offensive player on the team!  Carter
is overrated, and White/Gruber suck!  (They would feel right at
home with the Red Sox.  :-)

>  I always thought that about Morris also, when I just finally realized
>  that he's a winner. If Toronto scores 3, he'll give up 2. If they score
>  8 he'll give up 7.

Obviously you haven't read anything I've written.  I could repeat the
studies, if I felt like wasting a couple hours.  But you wouldn't read
them then either.  So why should I bother?

A summary...

Let A be the RA of a pitcher, S be the offense averaged by his teams
over the years, and W be the winning percentage of the pitcher.  We
expect W ~ S^2/(A^2 + S^2).

Out of curiosity, I tried this with Morris.  I took his career RA
through 1991, averaged the R/G of his offenses over that period, and
compared it to his actual winning percentage.

If Morris has pitched like that over his career, his winning
percentage would be *higher* than predicted.  If he pitches normally,
his WP would be roughly equal to what was predicted.  If he has been
anti-clutch (like some accuse DeLeon of being), his WP would be lower
than predicted.

And I found that his WP was almost exactly *equal* to what was
predicted.  Now we have a dozen years of data on Morris that indicate
that he has not been a clutch pitcher in the past (or at least it
hasn't shown up in his win totals).  We have three alternatives:

1) He has been clutch all along, but was very unlucky for 12 years.
2) He didn't used to be clutch, but suddenly acquired that talent.
3) He has gotten exceptionally lucky this year.

I vote for (3).

Besides, your statement contains temporal inaccuracies.  You say "his
team scores 3 runs and he gives up 2".  Actually, he has dug himself a
hole in the early innings of most of his starts.  After that, he has
pitched decently.  But it is better described as "he gives up 4 runs
and his team scores 5".  Which is great, if the team can come back
like that.  But it is not an example of good pitching.  Good pitchers
*hold* leads, they don't *blow* them.  And Morris has blown a ton of
leads already this year.  Given up the go-ahead run 12 times through
the middle of June.  And so forth...  Credit the ability of the Blue
Jays offense to come back for his small number of losses.  If they hit
equally well for Guzman, Key and Wells, they would have a 900 run
season and win 120 games.

>  We've got a guy named Chris Bosio on our team who is
>  not a winner (at least not yet). He'll often fold at the end of a close
>  game. If Milwaukee scores 4, he gives up 5. If we're shutout, he pitches
>  a beautiful three hitter, but one of the hits is a solo shot by Felix
>  Fermin in the eighth inning.

Wanna know how many of Morris' wins came *after* he left the game?
Morris pitches into the seventh, down by two, his team scores three,
and he is pulled before he gets a chance to blow it again...

>  It's funny how a team with so many "old" players can by far and away
>  lead the AL in stolen bases. I think other than Yount, Molitor and
>  Gantner the Brewers are fairly young, and in the cases of Yount and Molitor
>  I'm not worried about them falling apart down the stretch. 

Seitzer isn't young.  Neither is Surhoff.  Their starting pitching is
somewhat rickety, though they aren't necessarily old.  But the key to
the Brewers offense is Molitor.  Molitor has been *very* injury prone
over his career.  Playing DH may help, but many of his injuries have
come from his aggressive baserunning (which he still practices).  I'm
not saying that he *will* get injured.  But if you give me odds, I'll
take the bet.

>  As for the Eldred-Rhodes thing,
>  only time will tell, but I think Eldred will do just fine.

Eldred has a quality major league career ahead of him.  But there is
no guarantee that the "quality" will start *now*.  In fact, that's
rather unlikely given the history of similar prospects in the majors.
Though for this year, he only needs to be successful once around the
league...

>  Overall,
>  it's a solid team that has a penchant for winning tight games, a very big
>  plus in anyone's book.                    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Are you sure about this one?  Do you have any numbers to back this up?

Cheers,
-Valentine
-- 
If Plantier goes, I go!				tedward@cs.cornell.edu