From: nguyen@turing.scs.carleton.ca (H.H. Nguyen)
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.seasia-l
Subject: Re: Recognition of Vietnam
Date: 29 Sep 92 10:46:38 GMT
Organization: Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada

In article <9209260603.AA16776@coombs.anu.edu.au> cat@COOMBS.ANU.EDU.AU writes:

... deleted stuffs ....
>
>On two recent visits, my eighth and ninth since 1981, I met Viet Kieu
>(Overseas Vietnamese) from the United States in Hanoi who were negotiating
>business deals. Indeed in November 1991 I stayed at the Nha Khac Ban Viet
>Kieu Trung Uong (the Party's Guest House for Overseas Vietnamese). I met
>information science specialists from France as well as former members of
>the Thieu regime resident in California negotiating construction contracts.
>In July-August this year I met many more Viet Kieu in Ho Chi Minh city,
>including a group from Australia, also doing business. Qantas Airlines now
>has a direct flight (9 hours) from Sydney to Saigon and it is full of
>Overseas Vietnamese. Australia's Telecom makes a profit routing calls from
>Vietnam to America via Australia. You can freely buy the Asian Wall Street
>Journal (Dow Jones) and International Herald Tribune in Hanoi and on the
>streets of Saigon. VOA, the BBC, Radio Australia etc. all come in loud and
>clear and are not jammed.
>
>Australian Government officials consider the US embargo the greatest single
>obstacle to the full integration of Vietnam into the Asia-Pacific
>community. The end of the embargo would have two immediate effects: it
>would permit investment in infrastructure projects and permit US oil
>companies to invest in off-shore oil exploration. The Vietnamese government
>expects little else. Australia has restored direct bilateral aid to
>Vietnam, suspended since Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia. France, Italy, the
>United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Finland - and others -
>all provide aid to Vietnam. Japan is about to step out of the line drawn by
>Washington.
>

.... deleted stuffs ...
>their discussions with Vietnamese officials. Do they have any effect? Well
>the mercenary Vo Dai Ton, who attempted to violently overthrow the Hanoi
     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

	
	Could you back this statement up with some evidence please ?
I mean, I would like to know who hired this so-called mercenary or where he 
received the money from, if these information existed.

	While the monetary objectives of Mr Vo Dai Ton's infiltration 
into Vietnam are highly questionable, the profit-driven objectives of
foreign businessmen in Vietnam are clearly beyond reasonable doubts. This is 
clear to me even in this Prof. C.A. Thayer's posting. 

	Until further evidences are shown, it seems to me that this is a
typical case of false defamation or repeating what the Hanoi authorities
have uttered previously.

	Regards,
	H.H. Nguyen 




>government (I use this language specifically to indicate he does not
>qualify for prisoner of conscience status) was released after having been
>caught trying to inflitrate the country. He is now back in Australia
>denouncing the communist regime. French intervention brought the release
>from house detention of writer and radical critic Duong Thu Huong.
>Recently, a very senior Minister in the Australian government brought the
>cased of the United Buddhist Church and detention of several Venerable
>Monks to the attention of Hanoi. I don't often agree with President Bush,
>but he argues that the lines of communication must be kept open with China
>if the US is to have any influence. Why not the same logic for Vietnam?
>
>There are pragmatic grounds for the US to recognize Vietnam and establish
>diplomatic relations. Firstly, as the Woodcock Mission (sent by President
>Jimmy Carter) reported in the mid-1970s, the US would make more progress in
>clearing up the MIA quesiton by having an Embassy on the spot, equipped
>with vehicles and other tools of the trade and trained specialists, than by
>not having a permanent presence. Secondly, US business interests are being
>cut out as an increasing number of countries begin to sign contracts and do
>deals with Vietnam. Vietnam appears to be holding some off-shore oil leases
>for US companies, but this won't be the case forever. Finally, while
>Vietnam is economically weak, isolated, and cut off from military support
>from the former Soviet Union, it is falling prey to Chinese expansionism in
>the Gulf of Tonkin and the Spratly Islands. It is in America's interests to
>see China push itself into the region and upset the prevailing balance? The
>US has declared it has no interest in this matter. Ask Manila, Kuala
>Lumpur, Jakarta and Bangkok. They want the US to remain and normalize
>relations with Vietnam. I think regional stability would be made more
>secure if Vietnam were permitted to develop closer relations with regional
>states and not be hobbled by a continued aid/trade embargo. I would also
>like to see the pro-China lobby in Vietnam stymied, East Asian socialism is
>not dead (China, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos). I have a forthcoming article
>on this entitled, 'Comrade Plus Brother: Sino-Vietnamese Relations' to
>appear in the next issue of Pacific Review (London).
>
>As for the recent e-mail flurry of instant judgments about the stability of
>the Hanoi regime, I don't know even where to begin. I spent July-August in
>Vietnam - Hanoi, Quang Nam-Da Nang, Thua Thien-Hue and Ho Chi Minh City
>observing the recent elections of deputies to the National Assembly. I find
>predictions about the imminent collapse of the Hano regime exaggerated.
>There is little evidence of substantial opposition to the regime or any
>credible alternatives basd in Vietnam. Anti-Communist Overseas Vietnamese
>may disagree but I feelthey are sadly mislead bytheir own propaganda.
>Vietnam is still an authoritarian system, but the number of contacts that
>Vietnamese-speaking outsiders now have provides information unavailable
>several years ago. Vietnamese returning from Vietnam  provide little
>evidence to support the prediction that the regime will collapse as its
>fraternal allies did in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.
>
>Again, to engage in self-promotion, I suggest a commissioned piece I wrote
>for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore entitled, 'The
>Challenges Facing Vietnamese Communism' which was published in their annual
>yearbook, Southeast Asian Affairs 1992. I demonstrated that socio-political
>change is accompanying economic development and that these forces have
>forced the Communist Party to retreat bit by bit from everyday life.
>Indeed, the salience of ideology is in decline and Communist Youth Union
>membership has fallen sharply. Between the status quo and total collapse
>there are other possible outcomes of this process, the regime may take
>steps to transform itself and 'get by with a little help from its friends.'
>
>Cheers,
>
>Carl
>
>
>
>
>
>
>Carlyle A. Thayer
>Associate Professor & Visiting Fellow
>Dept. of Political and Social Change
>Research School of Pacific Studies
>The Australian National University
>GPO Box 4
>Canberra, ACT 2601 Australia
>
>Phone: 0011 61 6 249 4453 office; 0011 61 6 251 1849 home
>Fax 0011 61 6 257 1893 office; 0011 61 6 251 3749 home
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