From: Harel Barzilai <harelb@igc.apc.org>
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc
Date: 27 Sep 92 00:07 PDT
Subject: SALVADOREAN LEFT TIPPED TO WIN UPCO
Nf-ID: #N:cdp:1483600021:000:6006
Nf-From: cdp.UUCP!harelb    Sep 27 00:07:00 1992


/* Written  4:39 pm  Sep 25, 1992 by rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu in cdp:misc.activism. */
/* ---------- "SALVADOREAN LEFT TIPPED TO WIN UPCO" ---------- */
/** reg.elsalvador: 177.0 **/
** Topic: Salvadorean Left Tipped to Win Upc **
** Written 12:51 pm  Sep 25, 1992 by peg:jgutierrez in cdp:reg.elsalvador **
SALVADOREAN LEFT TIPPED TO WIN UPCOMING 1994 ELECTIONS

By Jose Gutierrez
Melbourne, Sept. 24, 1992. 

For the past 3 months the political situation in El Salvador
has been focused on the non-compliance with some points of the
peace accords by the Government of El Salvador (GOES) and, in
consequence, delays in their implementation by the Farabundo
Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN). 

One of the main causes of discontent has been the Land
Problem, which has affected mainly former FMLN combatants. The
Government accuses FMLN combatants of having illegally taken-
over their lands and it has supported land-owners to evict
peasant families by force. This has created tensions because
government's actions violate the peace accords, in which they
agreed that the State would legalise the Land Tenure System as
it was held at the time of signing the accords.

Another problem has been the non-dismantling of the Death
Squads which carry on a wave of murders against trade union
leaders. Now, some ultra-right wing groups have even attacked
members of the Armed Forces of El Salvador with the purpose of
creating confusion among the population and blame the FMLN for
it. 

The Cristiani Government claims that these crimes are being
carried out by elements of the ultra-right outside its
control, but the State has not been doing enough to uncover
and punish those responsible for violence. Cristiani still
claims that he doesn't know who these groups are. However,
being Chief of Intelligence, the President must know who is
behind the Death Squads. Rather, the President has adopted a
stance appearing naive in the face of a dirty war and
psychological warfare launched by the ultra-right against the
FMLN and the Popular Movement.

The ultra-right is determined to boycott the peace process.
They are reluctant to engage in a pure political struggle
because they fear an FMLN electoral victory in 1994, and,
consequently, the establishment of a democratic government
implementing an alternative type of economic model which will
eradicate oligarchic power once and for all from El Salvador.

In the meantime, GOES and FMLN negotiators were working hard
to renegotiate the global calendar of the Peace Accord's
implementation.

The FMLN had been concentrating on 3 points of the accords:
(1) legalisation of the FMLN as a political party, which took
effect August 1, 1992
(2) Establishment of the National Civilian Police, which
allows the participation of 20% of ex-END combatants.
(3) The implementation of programs to assist demobilised END 
combatants.

Whilst concentrating on 3 points of the peace accords set up
priorities, the FMLN needed to put more emphasis in the global
peace agreements and demand its full implementation.

The implementation of the peace accords is very important to
democratise and demilitarise the country. This will allow the
reconstruction of the economy and the free participation of
the left in the political process.

For the FMLN, political stability is very important in order
to wage a successful electoral campaign. The peace accords,
its compliance, the FMLN political platform and the different
forms of struggle are helping the FMLN to win over popular
support. The ultra-right knows this hence its efforts to
provoke unrest in the country.

There is a process of readjustment of forces within the
Salvadorean left. The Democratic Convergence (CD), the
National Revolutionary Movement (MNR), the Christian
Democratic Party (PDC), the Nationalist Democratic Union (UDN)
and the FMLN seem to be heading towards an electoral alliance
with the objective of defeating ARENA. The right, for its
part, is made up by the Party of National Conciliation (PCN),
the Authentic Christian Movement (MAC), the Nationalist
Republican Alliance (ARENA) and other small ultra-right wing
parties. Within the rightist camp, ARENA is the biggest party.
However, this rightist alliance would become a minority
compared with a broad unity of left wing organisations, which
apart from the political parties, is composed of many
grassroots social and political forces. All this readjustment
of political parties favours the FMLN in the upcoming 1994
elections.

The war has finally ended, but the struggle now takes on a
political dimension. The FMLN is trying to fully comply with
the peace accords, whilst the ultra-right is trying to boycott
them. The FMLN has successfully managed to avoid another war
with the ultra-right. But if the Cristiani Government leaves
no room for other options, the ultra-right persists with its
attacks against the FMLN, and there are no further agreements
to be reached then the FMLN does not rule out confrontation as
a necessary and legitimate option. But the FMLN knows well
that it would only benefit the right, so it is unlikely that
the FMLN will fall into the trap. The fact that the United
Nations is monitoring compliance with the peace accords, and
North America and the European Economic Community observe the
outcome of the peace process, pressures the Cristiani
Government not to pursue war and leaves the FMLN in the most
favourable position to engage in political struggle.

The ultra-right has only two cards left: (1) engaging in more
violence to boycott the peace accords; (2) going along with
the democratisation and demilitarisation process. Given this
political reality, no matter how hard they try, the ultra-
right is becoming more isolated and, worse, out of touch with
Salvadorean reality. Either way, the fact is that they are
doomed to electoral defeat. According to the latest Central
American University poll, popular support for the FMLN is
growing by the minute.
** End of text from cdp:reg.elsalvador **

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