From: desj@ccr-p.ida.org (David desJardins)
Newsgroups: rec.games.bridge
Subject: Re: No-trump indicates stopper, but--!
Date: 20 Aug 92 22:56:06 GMT
Organization: IDA Center for Communications Research, Princeton

Well, it looks like I have to admit defeat.  I disagree with many of
Alan's specific analyses, but I have to come to the same overall
conclusion.  Double simply works out better than pass.

Interestingly, the hands on which pass gained were all minor partscores
for E-W, going down.  I think that this means that the doubler is
overbidding.  It looks to me like there is a very good case for doubler
to pass 2 of a minor rather than raise.  (There was only one deal,
number 3, where raising a minor gained by getting to a good game, and
three deals, 1, 8, and 15, where it cost.)

Also interestingly, 1NT was pretty close to double.  Partly that is
because it didn't have the bad minor partscore results.  Not counting
those hands, the only significant difference between them was deal 2.

Anyway, a table of my results, and then the hands and analyses, follow.

                                        David desJardins

P.S. If possible, when you do a simulation like this, please post the
*exact* rules used to select the candidate hands.  Thanks.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hand    Pass    1NT     Double       Pass vs. Double    1NT vs. Double

  1     +100    +120    -200              +300              +320
  2     +150    +180    +630              -480              -450
  3      +50    +180    +600              -550              -420
  4          Flat board
  5          Flat board
  6      -80    +110    +110              -190
  7          Flat board
  8      +50     +90    -500              +550              +590
  9    +1370    +620   +1370                                -750
 10          Flat board
 11      -80     +90     +90              -170
 12     +600    +620    +620               -20
 13          Flat board
 14      +50    +110    +110               -60
 15     -140    -100    -100               -40
 16          Flat board
 17          Flat board
 18          Flat board
 19          Flat board
 20          Flat board
 21     -110     +90    +110              -220               -20
 22      +50    -110    -110              +160
 23      +50    +110    +130               -80               -20
 25     +100    +920    +920              -820
 26     -110    +110    +110              -220
 27     -100    +140    +140              -240

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 1.    T765432
       2
       76
AK     J82     Q98
J75            8643
AK53           JT84
KQT9   J       A7
       AKQT9
       Q92
       6543

Alan Jaffray <jaffray@sunkist.berkeley.edu> writes:
>Pass: +100
>1NT: +120
>Double: -50 (at 4D)

Actually 4D goes down two, for -200.  (You are vulnerable.)

 2.    J7642
       2
       T94
AK     J642    QT8
J75            Q963
AK53           Q76
KQT9   953     753
       AKT84
       J82
       A8

>Pass: +150 or so
>1NT: +180
>Double: +430

Agree.

 3.    T982
       T
       T6
AK     J86543  J743
J75            A3
AK53           J98742
KQT9   Q65     2
       KQ98642
       Q
       A7

>Pass: -80 (maybe +50)
>1NT: +180
>Double: +430

It looks to me like you should manage seven tricks against 1H.  Ace of
spades, king of spades, king of diamonds, king of clubs.  Now partner
wins the king of hearts with the ace, gives you a spade ruff, ruffs a
club, and gives you a trump promotion.

After double, I think you will play 5D +600, after (1H)-X-2D-3D-3S-5D.

 4.    J832
       9832
       74
AK     J74     QT9754
J75            4
AK53           Q8
KQT9   6       A832
       AKQT6
       JT962
       65

>Double seems to have a slight edge since you can
>tell partner you have 20 (!!) points immediately,
>and he will cooperate with slam tries.  Pass could
>work but partner, having stretched to balance, may
>be reluctant.  1NT is probably hopeless.

Some possible auctions:

(1H)-P-1S-2H-2S-3H-4C-4D-4H-4NT-5D-6C-P.
(1H)-1NT-4H-4NT-5D-5H-6S-P.
(1H)-X-2S-3H-4C-4D-4H-4NT-5D-6C-P.

It doesn't seem fair to me to penalize the auction which reaches 6S.
After all, it is just as likely that spades are 3-2 and clubs 4-1, and
in that case 6C would fail and 6S make.

I'm not going to count this board plus or minus for any call.

 5.    QJ7543
       4
       64
AK     8642    T8
J75            T96
AK53           QT92
KQT9   962     J753
       AKQ832
       J87
       A

>Pass: -110 if you pass after 1H-P-1S-P-2H
>      +110 if you double
>1NT: -50 if LHO passes
>     +110 if he bids
>Double: +110

Obviously you are going to double once the opponents bid hearts and
spades.  Note that the opponents are cold for 3S, and I'm not so sure
that they won't get there.  If N-S are playing weak jump shifts, North
might make one and then South will bid three.

I'm going to call this board flat as well, at either +110 or -140.

 6.    T643
       9
       JT9764
AK     65      Q9852
J75            832
AK53           82
KQT9   J7      432
       AKQT64
       Q
       AJ87

>Pass: -80
>1NT: -50 (at 2S)
>Double: -50 (at 2S)

2S makes two on this board, on any defense I can find.  Three hearts,
one club, and one trump.

 7.    976
       Q64
       T62
AK     A752    QJT8543
J75            2
AK53           J987
KQT9   2       4
       AKT983
       Q4
       J863

>Anything: +450

Actually +650.

 8.    T963
       4
       QJT72
AK     J43     752
J75            962
AK53           9864
KQT9   QJ84    A75
       AKQT83
       ---
       862

>Pass: -110
>1NT: +70
>Double: +70

1H-P-1S-P-2S-X-P-3D-3S, or 1H-P-1S-P-3S.  +50.  (Spade lead, three
rounds of clubs ending in East, diamond shift ruffed, spade, ace of
diamonds ruffed.  Now declarer can't draw trump to enjoy the hearts, so
has to lose a diamond or a spade.)

1H-1NT.  +90.  (How could you possibly score +70 after 1NT?)

1H-X-P-2D-2H-3D-X.  -500.

 9.    T954
       T86
       T92
AK     865     J8762
J75            ---
AK53           QJ874
KQT9   Q3      J42
       AKQ9432
       6
       A73

>Pass: -110 if partner passes
>      +420 or +920 if pard balances
>1NT: +200
>Double: +420 or +920

(1H)-P-1S-(3H)-4H-5D-6D.  +1370.

(1H)-1NT-2H-(3H)-4H-4S.  +620.  (Partner can't possibly figure out that
you have a good hand *without spades* for this auction.)

(1H)-X-1S-(3H)-X-4D-5D-6D.  +1370.

 10.   JT965
       86
       72
AK     J432    3
J75            T3
AK53           QJ984
KQT9   Q8742   A8765
       AKQ942
       T6
       ---

>Pass: -110
>1NT: +110? -50?
>Double: +110? -50?

Are we looking at the same hand?  +110 when we are cold for five?

1H-P-P-2D-2S-3S-4S-P-P-5D.  +600.

1H-1NT-P-2S-3S-5C.  +600.

1H-X-P-2D-2S-3D-3S-4D-4S-5D.  +600.

 11.   Q742
       T3
       QT87
AK     764     9853
J75            986
AK53           J62
KQT9   JT6     J82
       AKQ42
       94
       A53

>Pass: -80
>1NT: +70
>Double: +70

I still don't understand where these 70s are coming from.  1NT making
one for +90, after either 1NT or double followed by 1NT.

 12.   J842
       2
       J9864
AK     763     QT9765
J75            K64
AK53           T
KQT9   3       J82
       AQT983
       Q72
       A54

>Pass: +50
>1NT: +140
>Double: -50

(1H)-P-1S-2H-2S-3H-3NT.  +600.  (Here I think I will get the ace of
hearts lead.)

(1H)-1NT-2H-2S-3S-4S.  +420.  (But against this contract I think the ace
of hearts lead is quite unlikely.)

(1H)-X-2S-3H-3S-4H-4S.  +420.  (Ditto.)

 13.   T9832
       ---
       Q6
AK     865432  7654
J75            T9643
AK53           JT74
KQT9   QJ      ---
       AKQ82
       982
       AJ7

>Pass: +100 or +150
>1NT: +150
>Double: +150

Down three in 1H for +150 seems normal.  N-S might also manage to get to
clubs, in which case E-W will probably play diamonds for +130.

 14.   JT9864
       AT
       QT72
AK     8       732
J75            864
AK53           9
KQT9   Q5      J76432
       KQ932
       J864
       A5

>Pass: -90 (after 1S-P-2D)
>1NT: +110 (after 2S-P-P-X-P-3C)
>Double: +110 (after 2S-P-P-X-P-3C)

Pass: I expect 3D, +50, after the opponents bid 1H-1S-2D-3D.

Also, this is absolutely not a 2S bid after 1H-X.  The hand is too good
and the spades are too weak.  3C, +110, is still the likely result though.

 15.   J843
       9
       J97642
AK     53      T97
J75            632
AK53           QT8
KQT9   Q652    J764
       AKQT84
       ---
       A82

>Pass: -140
>1NT: -50
>Double: +110 (at 3C)

1NT is -100 vulnerable.

3C goes down, down, down.  King of hearts, ace of hearts, four of hearts
ruffed, diamond ruff, ace of clubs.  -100.

 16.   QJ762
       K83
       J64
AK     42      T985
J75            64
AK53           Q982
KQT9   43      853
       AQT92
       T7
       AJ76

>Pass: +50 (at 2H)
>1NT: +50 (at 2H)
>Double: +50 (at 2H)

Agree.

 17.   J6
       QT94
       9
AK     J86542  T9543
J75            2
AK53           QJT72
KQT9   Q872    73
       AK863
       864
       A

>??? Difficult to predict, but doubtful we'll buy it
>in any case.  Probably little difference.

Agree.

 18.   T65
       T842
       76
AK     J642    J87432
J75            A
AK53           J9842
KQT9   Q9      8
       KQ963
       QT
       A753

>Pass: +480
>1NT: +230 (maybe 480)
>Double: +480

All roads must lead to +680 on this hand.

 19.   J53
       T83
       Q762
AK     J74     QT987642
J75            94
AK53           JT8
KQT9   ---     ---
       AKQ62
       94
       A86532

>???  Who knows.  Probably +420 for all.

Agree, +620.

 20.   JT6
       92
       62
AK     876532  98432
J75            T83
AK53           QJ7
KQT9   Q75     AJ
       AKQ64
       T984
       4

>Pass: +50 (at 1H) or -50 (at 4S)
>1NT: -50
>Double: -50

All results -50.

 21.   Q953
       94
       Q98764
AK     7       8642
J75            Q8
AK53           JT
KQT9   JT7     J8653
       AKT632
       2
       A42

>Pass: -110
>1NT: +70
>Double: +70

(1H)-P-P.  -110.

(1H)-1NT-P.  +90.

(1H)-X-2C-P-3C.  +110.

 22.   J642
       KT3
       QT8
AK     J84     T973
J75            94
AK53           J764
KQT9   Q85     753
       AQ862
       92
       A62

>Pass: -110
>1NT: -110
>Double: -110

Strongly disagree.  After 1H or double, -110.  But if I pass I should
score +50.  What makes you think that declarer is going to guess right
in diamonds if I pass throughout?  Ace of spades, king of spades,
diamond to the jack, spade ruff, king of clubs.

 23.   JT872
       942
       Q2
AK     654     Q6543
J75            T3
AK53           T9876
KQT9   9       2
       AKQ86
       J4
       AJ873

>Pass: +50
>1NT: -50 (at 2S)
>Double: +110 (at 2D or 3D)

2S makes two, for +110.  And 3D makes four, for +130.

 24.   QJ964
       QT642
       4
AK     75      T832
J75            ---
AK53           QJT8762
KQT9   75      82
       AK983
       9
       AJ643

>Pass: +100 (at 4HX)
>1NT: +920
>Double: +920

Sigh.

 25.   QT42
       Q98
       9842
AK     54      97653
J75            3
AK53           JT6
KQT9   J8      7632
       AKT642
       Q7
       AJ8

>Pass: -110
>1NT: -50
>Double: +70 (? possibly -50 if they compete to 2H,
>             double, partner pulls to 2S)

1H-P-2H.  -110.

1H-1NT-P-2H-P-2S.  +110.  (Two spades, two heart ruffs, three diamonds,
one club.)

1H-X-2H-P-P-X-P-2S.  +110.

 26.   T843
       62
       972
AK     AJ62    QJ9762
J75            83
AK53           864
KQT9   5       73
       AKQT94
       QJT
       854

>Pass: -140
>1NT: +110
>Double: +110

My partner balances with this hand.  Of course, then I get to game.  I
probably won't make 4S, although I could if I guess the clubs.  Let's
say -100.

Certainly I am going to score +140 in the spade part-scores.
Newsgroups: rec.games.bridge