From: mj03@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (MINHO JO)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.korean
Subject: %%%%%%  T H E   L O S E R,   DJ    (Also, To: Mr. Han-jung Kim)
Date: 31 Dec 92 23:30:49 GMT
Organization: Lehigh University

In article <1992Dec30.093103.24047@news.duc.auburn.edu>, kim@magneto.physics.aub
urn.edu (Han-jung Kim) writes:



This is also in respond to the previous message of Mr Han-Jung Kim.


>I am the man who asked somebody to analyse the reason why DJ was defeated
>first time. And Mr. ByungTae Lee has posted his analysis about my
>question.



Sorry I erased rest of your post.

Basically,  I for sure admit YS's win.   But I have different viepoints from

the Byungtea's analysis in postelection analysis.    The main point of

Byungtae'sanalysis was superficial to me,  for instant,  DJ and Minju didn't

have scientific and analytical approaches for the election and they have

limited political structures,  and so on.    At least,  his analysis was

practical and pinpointing to me.


        My simple analysis is as following:

              1.  Reginonalism (Jyuk-Gamjung) spoiled Korean people's
                  right choice.


                  As we can see,  Honam and Kyoungsang people supported

                  their hometown-rooted candidate relentless, respectively.

                  On the other hand,  DJ had the best chance last time

                  in his life.   The TK people do not like YS that much.

                  The TK people holded a casting vote in the last election.

                  They were a sort of swing voters.  But a decisive event

                  occured right before the election day.  It is the Pusan

                  Gigwanjang Meeting.   It is beleived that it affected

                  the election dramatically.   It mainly influenced TK

                  and PK (Pusan and Kyungnam).   At the begining, the Pusan

                  scandal made a negative impact on YS in TK.   According

                  to many polls results,  DJ led YS by 1 or 2 % at that time.

                  Many of swing votors in TK and PK decided to vote for

                  Jooyung Jung.   However,  TK and PK swing votors came to

                  feel risky, i.e.,  DJ could win.   In addition,  Kim

                  Gi-Choon's Gyyuk-Gamjung comments in the meeting triggered

                  to make specially TK and PK solid for YS just a day before

                  the election day.   We can check, by the polls conducted

                  a day before the elction day,  if the drastic changes of

                  the TK votors's mind were true or not.   The significant

                  notice was that not a small number of votors but a huge

                  number of votors went to YS.   The cool and wise political

                  analysists in Korea agree with the Pusan scandal in favor

                  of YS at the end.   But many of Korean nwes papers are

                  reluctant to say about that.   They are still used to

                  the attitude under the authorative regime (military

                  regime).   They don't want to make YS upset.  On the

                  other hand,  there is a interesting story.   The presidential

                  elect,  YS visited the archibishop, Kim Soo-Whan a couple

                  of days  ago.   The archibishop,  asked YS, "Did the

                  Pusan Gigwanjang Meeting let you win,  didn't it ?".

                  Of course,  YS was trying to agree with Kim Soo-Whan.


                  Judgement is up to you.   This is just my subjective opnion.




        2.Minju Dang made mistake by cooperating with Jungook YeunHap.


                 This event was another negative point against DJ.

                 Many of the conservative and middle class people changed

                 their minds by DJ's decision to coorperte with Jungook

                 Yeunhap for the election.   They were in a little bit

                 favor of DJ,  not of YS before announcing the cooperation

                 news.   I would say they are the conservative and middle

                 class with favorite of a little bit changes, instead of

                 radical changes.   This evidence can be shown in the

                 results of Seoul.   DJ didn't win in Seoul by a big

                 margin.  He just won in seoul by a smaller margin than

                 expected.





  Conclusions:

       Those are main reasons of DJ's lose based on my own anaysis.

       Of course,  there are many other reasons whch were not decisive.

       In this stage,  the game is over and so,  we need not stick around

       to the results.   But,  it is worth analyzing correctly and in depth

       why DJ lost it in order for the young generation politicians to prepare

       for the next battle.   I welcome any objections and different analysis

       from SCK frieds,  including Mr. Han-Jung Kim.





       I  hope that YS does a good in the future.  However,  I don't
       think everything that YS has to overcome is simple.   It is my
       current interest too how he bulds Shin Hangook,  cures Hangook Byung
       soves South-North Unification,  and more urgently solves Jiyuk Gam Jung.

       Another interesting thing is who is going to be and should be the
       next opposition leader,  possibly next president.



                  Minho Jo,  Lehigh University
                  Compuetr Integrated Manufacturing Lab.,
                  Industrial Engineering Department
                  Mj03@Lehigh.edu


                  My career goal is to achieve  "Warm-hearted Human Integrated
                  Society".