From: CDELL@VAX1.UMKC.EDU ("VALENTINE M. SMITH")
Newsgroups: talk.politics.soviet
Subject: "On the First Anniversary of the Attempted Putsch in Moscow"
              (#758)
Date: 19 Aug 92 05:29:11 GMT
Reply-To: "talk.politics.soviet via ListServ" <TPS-L@indycms.iupui.edu>

"On the First Anniversary of the Attempted Putsch in Moscow"

One year ago this night, at 2339 my time, I reported a CNN report to
my list that Mikhail Gorbachev had been deposed. From that simple
report, came a raft of change. Gorbachev was restored as "Soviet
President," only to be be bloodlessly deposed by the dissolution of
the XUSSR that summer and fall, the creation of the Commonwealth of
Independent States in Minsk later in 1991, and he resigned on the
Western Christmas Day.

In one year, the whole world has chaged. Damned fool American
politicians, including the US President trumpet that the US "won" the
Cold War, despite the fact that many of our problems - a large
chronic "underclass," a crumbling infrastructure, declining education
and rising crime, drugs, disease and infant mortality problems - are
also those of Russia, and many of the other states formed in the wake
of the failed "putsch."

Now there are 15 states instead of the alleged monolith that existed
before. Most of us still have not digested the "coup attempt" a year
later, because its ripples are still surging across the political
landscape of Europe.

Within those states remains struggles over smaller-group autonomy
(how much fragmentation can be stood?), most notably in Azerbaijan,
the Tajik/Uzbek "struggle" (receiving minute coverage here), Moldova
and in Russia itself, most notably with the Tatars, Yakuts, and
Chechen peoples.

The "deposition" and restoration of Gorbachev ironically signalled
his end as a political leader, and the rise of Boris Yeltsin.
However, though Yeltsin has grown into the job of Russia's President,
severe differences remain between he, the reformers of his
government like Gaidar, and the not-necesaarily loyal to "this
Russia" opposition of men like Rutskoi, Volsky, and now private
citizen Gorbachev, still dragging his feet, still wanting reform to
"slow down."

At the time of the "putsch," I recall being shocked that a so-called
"super-power"would have a coup attempt ala South America, thinking
such reports were more like likely from Lima, Buenos Aires or
Santiago than from Moscow. But, there were the tanks, there was the
"emergency committee," with Yanayev and his shaking hands, and Pugo,
looking almost impudent on that stage.

Within days, Gorb was back in Moscow, being overshadowed by Russia's
first elected President in a thousand years, Yeltsin, Pugo (and his
wife) were dead by their own hands, and the rest of the
"conspirators" - Yanayev, Pavlov, Yazov, Kryuchkov, Baklanov,
Tizyakov, Starodubtsev, and Lukanyov - were jailed, still are
awaiting trial "sometime this winter."

A year later, most of the forces unleashed by the "putsch" are still
warring for the direction of Russia, and some of the former states of
the XUSSR. The "CIS" is a fragile entity, perhaps doomed to be
replaced by the Nazerbayev notion of a "confederation" of the core
republics - Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Armenia,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - allowing Turkmenstan, now getting massive
aid from Turkey; Moldova, some portion of which may rejoin to
Romania; Ukraine, already chaffing at the bit; and Azerbaijan, also
reaching towards Turkey and Iran to "leave the fold. Georgia is
already "gone," having never joined the "CIS," but also struggling
with a problem - Ossetia - that has them fatefully inter-twined with
Russia, and another - Abkhazia - that is a microcosm of Russia's
struggles with the Tatars and the Chechen, to name but a couple.

The "right" has legitimacy, and the Gaidar "government" is being
pressed hard about the "shock" nature of their reforms. The military
is riddled with "political commissar" types, and the KGB is still
quite alive, though masked well from prying eyes as to what it is
really doing.

The "putsch" shocked the world, and it remains the signal event of my
life, dwarfing the Korean War, the rise and fall of "THE Wall,"
Vietnam, or any of the other incredible events of the past forty
years. In its wake, the "USSR" perished. The future, a year later, is
still as unclear as it was that startling momemt when the world
discovered Gorbachev had been ousted, and all the other stunning
momemts since. As former Soviet Ambassador Hartwell said at the time,
"the genie has been let out of the bottle," and the putsch leaders
were so hard-pressed to put it back in again that they broke the
bottle. Now, the container of that old genie has still to be formed,
and the future is as cloudy, if not cloudier, than that fateful night
a year ago. VMS