From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 October
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1992 04:47:24 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               01 OCTOBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 275, 10/01/92
10.7 FLUX=117.9  90-AVG=123        SSN=120      BKI=4544 3231  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=3.4E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=4644 3232  PAI=023
  BOU-DEV=053,118,057,059,027,015,023,005   DEV-AVG=044 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.4   @ 2311UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 1705UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.0
NEUTN-MAX= -001%  @ 2350UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
  PCA-MAX= -3.3DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -3.3DB @ 2350UT    PCA-AVG= -3.3DB
BOUTF-MAX=55445NT @ 0347UT   BOUTF-MIN=55389NT @ 0536UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+087NT@ 2021UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-001NT@ 0837UT  G7-AVG=+070,+047,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+101NT@ 0526UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-029NT@ 1621UT  G6-AVG=+080,-018,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,125,135;SESC:120,125,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,030,020/025,035,025
    KFCST=4445 5433 4455 5444  27DAY-AP=035,027   27DAY-KP=4455 5335 5554 3234
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity remained low over the last 24 hours.  There were three
C-class flares today.  The largest of these was a class C2.4 event at 23:11
UT.  Region 7298 (N17E35) produced a class C1.1/SF flare at 16:33 UT that was
accompanied by a 910 sfu radio burst at 245 MHz.

     Region 7298 more than doubled in area and spot count today, to 130
millionths in a DAI optical configuration.  The group is capable of C-class
flare activity.

     Region 7293 (S06W45) continued to slowly decay and simplify.  The weak
magnetic delta configuration that was evident in the group over the last
several days was lost over the last 24 hours.  It is presently a beta-gamma
group.

     New Region 7300 (N12E73) rotated into view today around the east limb as
an apparently simple BXO type spot group.

     Solar activity should continue low.  C-class activity is expected
primarily from Region 7298.  Nothing more energetic is expected at this time.

     The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active today.  Periods of
minor storm activity was observed over the middle latitudes during the local
night hours.  High latitudes experienced active to major storming during the
night-sectors.  This activity is likely attributed to a well placed coronal
hole.  The field is expected to continue at active to minor storm levels over
the next 72 hours.  Activity could peak on or near 02 or 03 October if the
large filament disappearance noted on 29 September becomes geoeffective.

     The middle latitude auroral activity watch has been extended through
19:00 UT on 04 October.  Conditions may become favorable for observations of
auroral activity over the northern tier of the U.S. states on 02 or 03
October (UT days).

     HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low and some middle
latitude regions.  Central to northerly middle latitude paths generally
observed below-normal propagation.  MUFs remained depressed by approximately
20 percent, although conditions have improved over the last 24 hours.
Night-sector propagation will continue to be the least stable period.
Conditions may deteriorate on 02 or 03 October if the filament-related
disturbance noted above materializes.  High and polar latitudes should suffer
the worst propagation.  No significant improvements are expected until 04 or
05 October.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7289  S09W78  102  0080 HAX  02  003 ALPHA
7293  S06W45  069  0080 DAO  10  008 BETA-GAMMA
7294  S10W22  046  0230 CHO  04  004 BETA
7295  N15W00  024  0120 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7296  N08E03  021  0050 DAO  03  008 BETA
7298  N17E35  349  0130 DAI  07  013 BETA
7299  N13E49  335  0030 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7300  N12E73  311  0010 BXO  06  002 BETA
7292  N20W43  067                    PLAGE
7297  S16W57  081                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 OCTOBER TO 04 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7282 S18   294
7276 N16   261


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER
------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0154 0154 0155                          190
 0802 0803 0807                          210
 1341 1349 1353 7298  N17E44 B4.8  SF    170
 1628 1633 1637 7298  N17E43 C1.1  SF    910


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
01/ 2100     2155     2228                LDE    B5.9   88


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
56   S18W40 S22W44 N04W65 N07W47  083  ISO   POS   016 10830A
58   S17W18 S20W19 S17W26 S17W26  044  ISO   POS   002 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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