From: zuhars@madrone.eecs.ucdavis.edu (Gary Death To Live Arms Huckabay)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: The value of speed (was Re: bonds in atlanta in 1993)
Date: 5 Nov 92 23:04:26 GMT
Organization: Pity That Stupidity Is'nt Painful, Inc.


Tom Eyford writes, along with Valentine and Erick Summers:

>You certainly have picked an extreme example; there aren't too many
>players in the majors who will have 300 non-playable balls in a season.
> Moreover, I don't care how many extra-base hits a player gets during
>the season, the vast majority of his hits are going to be singles
>(unless you are Rob Deer).  Singles don't drive in runners from first.

Vast majority?  Almost any true slugger probably runs close to 60% -
that's not a VAST majority by any means.  And then there's guys like
McGwire, Deer, etc.

>So sorry, the chances are *always* better for bringing runners home
>from second than first.  If they weren't, why do we see managers
>bunting runners over in the 9th innings of close games, even when the
>top of the order is batting?

Well, in most situations where sac bunts are used, it's because the
manager doesn't know what he's doing.  (Are you listening, Jim
Leyland?)  There are times when a sac bunt is a good idea, but, in
general, it's a losing strategy.

For proof, see the Table of Expected Runs.

>A major advantage of speed on the basepaths is not necessarily the
>steal itself; most often it is the *threat* of the steal that is so
>dangerous.  Rickey Henderson was the master at rattling pitchers into
>bad pitches, throwing errors, etc.  Sid Bream can't do that for you.

Rickey's a bad example because he's a legitimate power hitter, too.
Let's use, say, Otis Nixon.  Ok?

>Yes, but look at the Cardinals of the mid-80's.  Their power numbers
>were just as dismal (though their BA probably was a little higher) and
>they managed a few World Series appearances. 

They also walked like fiends.  Little ball was NOT the identifying
mark of the successful Cardinal clubs of the mid-80's - OBP was.
Walks.

>Granted, they are the same.  Now tell me what the difference is between
>a walk/stolen base and a double.  You may say that the double is a sure
>thing, but then there are the singles with runners thrown out at
>second, etc.  No one counts these stats.

Otis Nixon was thrown out stealing at least 18 times this year,
perhaps more, depending on whether or not he was picked off at first.
Do you HONESTLY think ANYONE in baseball (with the possible exception
of Tony Fernandez, who should be drugged) was thrown out 18 times
trying to stretch an extra base this year?  If so, lay off the
shrooms.

Caught Stealings are LETHAL.  Otis Nixon's baserunning value this year
(in terms of stolen bases) was virtually nothing, because he was
thrown out 18 times.  41 SB and 18 CS is worth about 1.5 runs over the
course of a season.  Dickie Thon was worth more on the basepaths this
year.  

>They may not be real life, but they are certainly the most effective
>way of predicting it.

They sure help.  I don't think Val claimed they didn't.  Must have
been that Erick fellow.

>Pitching around a hitter does nothing to his BA, unless he is foolish
>enough to swing at bad pitches.

Someone alert Terry Pendleton, Tony Gwynn, and the media.

>However, if you count his stolen bases, you can add about 41 'doubles'
>to that sugging average. (and 18 'out trying to stretch it into a
>double's.)  For a leadoff hitter, it amounts to approximately the same
>thing.

I've covered CSs above.

And it DOESN'T amount to the same thing.  At all.  18 Extra times on
base is worth quite a bit, even if we assume all the times Otis was
gunned were low-leverage situations.

>And he also put himself in scoring position an additional 41 times with
>those stolen bases.  Nobody's bats are big enough to discount that,
>especially not the Braves'.

And he KILLED innings, or at least mortally wounded them, 18 times.
The total benefit to the team is about 1.5 runs for this season.  As
Yogi would say, you could look it up.

>I disagree with you there; Bream is a dependable player with
>reasonable-to-good power (12 HR in a platoon situation is respectable
>at worst).  He certainly doesn't hurt the lineup.  None of the above
>can play first, excepting Klesko, and he's still just a prospect.

Klesko's ready.  He was ready last year.

>Nobody's offense is going to score 8 runs every ballgame. 
>Manufacturing runs is always going to be part of a winning baseball
>club.  Again, see mid-80's Cardinals, '88 Dodgers.

The '88 Dodgers offense sucked wind, didn't it?
And the Cardinal offenses you referred to scored runs because of their
OBP, not because of intentional offensive outs.

>Only slightly.  And once they are there, I wouldn't bet on Blauser
>making it to second on his own.

I also wouldn't count on Blauser to blow a chance for a big inning.
And when they're at the plate, I wouldn't count on Nixon to get home
on his own, or second on his own, or even first on his own.  Blauser
just might.

>When they are successful, they put a runner in scoring position when
>there was no such runner previously.  And in the process, you are
>making life hell on the pitcher. 

Speaking as a pitcher at a very high level, I disagree with you.  I
personally don't give a rat's ass if someone steals on me.  Just throw
strikes, and throw hard, and the run won't score.  It doesn't make my
life hell.

>Nobody worries about Blauser at first
>(and for very good reason).  'Most likely' [to drive you in from first]
>is a relative term; counting on the extra-base hit to get you runs is a
>stupid policy, I don't care who's at the plate hitting.

Stupid is making blanket claims without researching them.  Is it
stupid to send Otis Nixon with nobody out, two runs down, in the 8th
inning with Justice hitting?   And there are other ways to get runs
besides extra base hits, in terms of having a runner on first.  You
could (God forbid) get TWO hits, or a walk and a hit, or any number of
other things could happen.

But you won't get caught stealing.


-- 
*   Gary Huckabay    * "Bobby Valentine?  Bobby F$#%ing Valentine?  S%^t,  *
*  "Lower imbecile   *  Gary, *I* could manage the Mariners better than    *
*   tolerance than   *  him, and I don't even bring the baggage of Tom     *
*   Sherri Nichols." *  House with me.   Arrrgh." - A. Nonymous Netster.   *