From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- AL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 1992 18:26:57 GMT


                  AL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                 (through games of Tuesday, August 11)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Appier         KCR   12.8   5.1  0.715   13  4   2.43   38.0   3.65
Clemens        BOS   13.1   5.4  0.706   13  7   2.55   38.6   3.71
Guzman,Ju      TOR   10.9   4.4  0.712   12  3   2.41   29.9   3.04
Nagy           CLE   12.3   6.1  0.669   12  7   2.86   31.5   3.04
Mussina        BAL   11.2   5.8  0.659   11  5   2.90   26.7   2.65
Navarro        MIL   11.5   7.4  0.607   12  8   3.54   17.1   1.93
Fleming        SEA   10.7   7.1  0.603   12  5   3.65   15.8   1.74
Viola          BOS   11.3   7.6  0.597   10  8   3.54   18.6   1.85
Smiley         MIN   10.7   7.4  0.593   12  6   3.65   17.0   1.74
Krueger        MIN   10.0   7.1  0.585   10  3   3.77   13.0   1.37
Wegman         MIL   11.2   8.4  0.573   10  9   3.64   15.8   1.46
McDowell       CHI   10.4   7.7  0.574   15  6   3.57   15.4   1.18
Abbott         CAL    8.8   6.1  0.589    4 11   3.30   15.6   1.29
Welch          OAK    6.9   4.2  0.619   10  5   3.02   13.3   1.18
Brown,K        TEX   10.8   8.6  0.558   15  7   3.83   12.3   1.07
Gullickson     DET    9.7   7.6  0.560   13  7   3.62   11.9   1.02
Erickson       MIN    8.8   6.8  0.564    8  8   3.77   12.6   0.98
Bosio          MIL    9.6   7.9  0.551   10  5   4.07    5.8   0.87
Gubicza        KCR    7.2   5.6  0.564    7  6   3.80    7.2   0.75
Perez,M        NYY    9.6   8.4  0.533    9 12   3.81   11.0   0.42



Bottom 10 AL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong      CLE    4.2   9.7  0.302    2 13   6.55  -25.6  -2.68
Milacki        BAL    3.6   8.8  0.291    5  7   6.63  -22.9  -2.36
Terrell        DET    1.6   6.1  0.211    1  5   8.42  -24.4  -2.20
Slusarski      OAK    2.3   6.6  0.257    5  4   6.45  -18.9  -2.02
Stieb          TOR    3.3   6.9  0.321    3  6   5.92  -15.1  -1.69
Aldred         DET    2.4   5.8  0.292    2  6   6.99  -17.7  -1.57
Stottlemyre    TOR    5.6   8.8  0.387    7  7   5.84  -21.0  -1.67
Kamieniecki    NYY    5.1   8.2  0.385    2  9   5.10   -9.5  -1.45
King           DET    1.6   4.5  0.266    2  4   7.51  -14.3  -1.30
Bones          MIL    5.9   8.7  0.402    6  9   5.42  -13.0  -1.27



Luckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Morris         TOR    8.4  10.3    14  5   10.9
McDowell       CHI   10.4   7.7    15  6    6.4
Brown,K        TEX   10.8   8.6    15  7    5.8
Tapani         MIN    8.8   8.4    13  7    5.7
Slusarski      OAK    2.1   6.6     5  4    5.5
McDonald       BAL    8.5   9.2    11  7    4.7
Moore          OAK    7.9  10.4    11  9    4.5
Stewart        OAK    6.6   8.8     8  6    4.2
Gullickson     DET    9.5   7.6    13  7    4.2
Krueger        MIN    9.9   7.1    10  3    4.2



Unluckiest 10 AL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         CAL    8.5   6.1     4 11   -9.4
Hanson         SEA    8.7  10.1     7 15   -6.6
Armstrong      CLE    4.2   9.7     2 13   -5.5
Valera         CAL    7.8   6.9     5  9   -4.9
Kamieniecki    NYY    5.1   8.2     2  9   -3.9
Gardiner       BOS    3.8   6.0     2  8   -3.9
Perez,M        NYY    9.3   8.4     9 12   -3.8
Hough          CHI    7.8   7.1     5  8   -3.8
Mesa           B/C    4.5   6.5     4  9   -3.0
Key            TOR    8.4   7.8     7  9   -2.5



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN     44.1   37.2   0.543   43.3   50  31   4.07   3.86   3.52
BOS     43.4   37.1   0.539   42.2   36  42   3.98   3.85   3.35
MIL     43.2   39.9   0.520   41.9   42  38   4.24   4.23   1.77
CAL     41.8   42.8   0.494   40.4   34  48   4.29   4.40  -0.37
KCR     39.7   40.7   0.494   37.8   37  39   4.48   4.49  -0.36
BAL     40.6   41.6   0.494   39.3   46  39   4.38   4.38  -0.14
TEX     40.8   42.9   0.487   40.0   42  38   4.45   4.41  -0.91
CHI     39.7   43.1   0.479   39.0   41  35   4.41   4.44  -1.53
TOR     40.0   44.0   0.476   39.1   48  36   4.53   4.67  -2.16
CLE     36.9   44.5   0.453   36.1   32  49   5.03   4.94  -3.51
OAK     36.9   46.4   0.443   35.6   50  37   4.70   5.03  -4.69
NYY     35.1   44.9   0.439   34.2   32  46   4.94   4.96  -4.88
SEA     37.2   47.5   0.439   35.9   34  54   5.28   5.05  -4.77
DET     31.1   49.6   0.385   29.6   36  44   5.54   5.70  -8.65
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AL     550.5  602.1   0.478  534.4  560 576   4.58   4.58 -23.31


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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