HDTenEightyP/NetNews huggingface dataset:
From: thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu (T. Scott Thompson)
Subject: Re: inflation indicators?
Reply-To: thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu
Organization: Economics Department, University of Minnesota
Date: Fri, 9 Oct 1992 13:52:15 GMT

aslt@acad2.alaska.edu writes:

>What are opinions on the most accurate inflation measure?  I imagine 
>it would be regional, maybe?  And where could one download historical
>data for that measure?

1.  There is no such thing as a unique, "best" inflation measure.
Most indices use the current cost of purchasing some fixed collection
of goods and services.  The problems with this approach are:

(a) Not everyone consumes the same basket of goods and services.  So
an index based on one basket overestimates changes in the cost of
living for some while underestimating it for others.

(b) An index based on a fixed basket cannot take into account the
substitutability of various commodities.  As relative prices change,
households and firms change the mix of goods that they purchase in
order to minimize the adverse affects of the price changes.  Since
these substitutions are highly idiosyncratic, there is no way that a
single, aggregate statistic can capture what is going on for all
households at once.

2.  Your idea about regional indices being better than national ones
is correct in one sense: the more disaggregated your data the less
severe will be the problems mentioned in (1.).  On the other hand,
since price data is collected by sampling methods there is likely to
be far more measurement error and sampling variation in the regional
and local statistics than there is in the national statistics.  (The
government does not release some of the highly localized survey data
that it collects precisely because it does not think that it is very
reliable.)

3.  I don't know about any economic data bases available for free
access by computer.  Maybe someone else can help you here.  The big
forecasting companies (DRI, WEFA, etc.) maintain large online
databases of economic data, but charge many $$$ for access.  Most
university libraries have pretty good government documents centers,
however.  Some of the national economic data series are becoming
available on CD-ROM, and these are sometimes accessible through
libraries.

--
T. Scott Thompson              email:  thompson@atlas.socsci.umn.edu
Department of Economics        phone:  (612) 625-0119
University of Minnesota        fax:    (612) 624-0209
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca (Ken Mcdonald)
Subject: Why the recent MicroSoft runup?
Organization: CSS, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada
Distribution: na
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1992 07:49:43 GMT


Is there a concrete reason for the recent small runup in the
price of MicroSoft stock?  Just a few weeks ago, the market seemed
to be indicating it thought the stock was fairly or slightly
overvalued at a bit over 78, and with recent news (delay in Windows
NT, resource requirements of NT, rumours of an antitrust suit),
I would've thought the stock would've been likely to move down.
But, as of Monday, it closed at 81.75.

Just curious,
Ken McDonald
mcdonald@cs.sfu.ca
From: toml@voodoo.boeing.com (Tom Locke)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Advice needed: Financial Intelligence mag.
Date: 9 Oct 92 15:25:00 GMT
Organization: Boeing Graphics project, Bellevue WA

Hi netters,

Does anyone know anything the Financial Intelligence report
by Richard Young?  Is it worth $99/year, 12-month subscription?
I have no idea how credential Richard Young is, but according
to the report, his financial advices regularly appears in the 
Forbes and Business Weekly magazines.

Any opinion is greatly appreciated.

Thanks
-- 
Tom Locke                         Work: (206) 865-6568
Boeing Computer Services        E-mail: toml@voodoo.boeing.com 
P.O. Box 24346  M/S 7K-20           or: uunet!bcstec!voodoo!toml
Seattle, WA  98124-0346
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: pub@riscee.pko.dec.com (Publius)
Subject: Banking surprise    (Re: investing for November elections)
Organization: Digital Equipment Corporation, Maynard MA
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1992 13:37:56 GMT

In article <8190128@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM> rauchfuss@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM (Brian Rauchfuss) writes:
>
>These banking surprise rumors seem strange ...

It's not really a surprise.  It is expected.  The new guideline
on when to close down a troubled bank, which is much tougher than
the current guideline, is scheduled to take effect in December.
It is estimated that about 10% of the banks will not be able to
meet the new requirement.

Regards,
-- 
-- Publius
Disclaimer: These opinions are mine, all mine, mine alone.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: dwang@ADS.COM (David Wang)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Income & Wealth
Date: 13 Oct 92 22:24:13 GMT
Organization: Advanced Decision Systems, Mtn. View, CA (415)960-7300

In article <1992Oct12.233845.20297@spectra.com> ohumukin@spectra.com (Kawika Ohumukini) writes:
>
>	The constant shift from quantity to quality causes purchasing.
>
Huh?  If you can't afford it, don't buy, regardless of quality.  I
mean a Mercedes is obviously better engineered than say a Hundyai,
but if you can't pay for Mercedes don't buy it.  And if you go
bankrupt while buying toys you can't afford, then you deserve to
pay the consequence.


>>High consumer debt is a DIRECT result of people buying the garbage
>>from TV ads.
>
>	Maybe, I think that it is more attributable to lack of
>	education on how to manage money.  Ask 10 people if they
>	understand how compound interest works and what it means
>	in 1,5,10,20 years.  You may be amazed at how many people
>	have no idea how it works.
>
But the ads from TV are constantly urging people to buy....  

>>Another point : why should people that save and create wealth
>>  be penalized ?  where is the old virtue of individual 
>>  responsibility ?  If someone spend beyond his/her mean, it
>>  is an individual problem.  Government has no role in bailing
>>  out irresponsible individual behaviors.
>
>	They should be penalized because by saving they are affectively
>	taking the wealth of the economy out of the cycle.
>
I hope you are just joking.  Take your view to the extreme, say no one
save anything, where is the capital for investment going to come from?
Can't have capitalism w/o the capital.  Can't do R&D or build new
factories for new widgets w/o capital.  Savings create capital which 
allow the creation of new wealth and invention of new technology.  
Giving your previous postings, I'd think you understand the importance
of capital formation and savings in creating new technology and new 
wealth!

I think over a short time horizon, savings instead of consumption may
depress the economy, but long term, it is better for society to have 
more savings ==> lower interest rate, more $$ for new ventures,
...etc.
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: edwardz@ecs.comm.mot.com (Edward Zhong)
Subject: buying a house is to choose a life style
Organization: trunking_fixed
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1992 21:59:23 GMT

i agree that buying a house is to choose a life style rather than an investment.

in most of the area the rent roughly equeals to the house misc expenses. most 
of people borrow from bank to buy house to seek a house appreciation which
always lower than the mortgage rate. however, the tax break on the mortgage 
interest hopes a little to break even.

a property tax of 2.5% is normal. i don't count it for additional taxes break,
because it is normally equeal to (or then less than) the standard tax examptions.
(the standard examption for a married couple was 5300 in 91). the house insurance
is about .5%; the util bill (gas + electric) is about 1%; water and sewer .5%; and
the maintenance fee 1% per year. the house misc expenses sum up to 5.5% a year.
just remain you that the house misc expenses will rise just as fast as the rent 
and the house value.

in my area (nw of chicago), the average house price is about 150,000. so 5.5% of
it will be 8250 or 687.5/month. you can easily find a two-bed and two-bath apt
here with all utililty covered.

how about 100,000 house (it is very hard to find a single family house at this 
price, you might end up with a townhouse with 150 association fee)? 5.5% of 
100,000 will be 5500 or 450/month. it is also true that it is very hard to find 
an apt with this little money, but the saved 150 association fee will help out.

you buy a house for a better living style by sacrifice the flexiablity. (you
can't liquidate a house very quickly). you rent for good flexiablity but a
less comfortable living style. the loadlord makes the hard money for take care
of all the hassles.

conclusion, you take a risk for an investment which may have better than inflation
returns. or you work (pay of your labor and brain) for a reward. (to remodel your
house or do a software contract or be a landlord to take care midnight tenent calls.)

please feel free to comment.

p.s. sorry for my poor english writing.
-- 
=================================================================================
Ed Zhong, Motorola Inc. (LMPS)      |  my money works for me;
edwardz@ecs.comm.mot.com            |  i work to make my money work for me.
From: tjochem+@CS.CMU.EDU (Todd Jochem)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: 20th Century---the real story
Date: 12 Oct 92 15:01:33 GMT
Article-I.D.: cs.Bw0KEs.Ho1.1
Distribution: misc
Organization: Carnegie Mellon University


      
> In fact, 20th Century ranks 25th out of 25 as
> an overall fund family and only 4th for Growth funds (according to
> Money Magazine 8/92).

Was 20th Century really RANKED 25th out 25?? My interpretation of that article
was that because 20th Century's global stock fund was so new, Money didn't give
it a ranking. This in turn messed up their overall fund family score. I belive
Money
From: jm0i@ns1.cc.lehigh.edu (JOSEPH ALOYSIUS MCVEIGH)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: GM to file for chapter 11 Bankruptcy (at least that's the rum
Date: 14 Oct 92 03:17:43 GMT
Organization: Lehigh University

mikeq@freddy.CNA.TEK.COM (Mike Quigley) writes:

>The truth is, the BIG 3 are dinosaurs propped up by government intervention
>and protection (i.e., Corporate Socialism).
>GM may be too big for a debt-ridden government to cover forever.
>Its bankruptcy may be tied to the ``December Surprise''
>expected right after the election.
>
>Let's see what rises out of the ashes.

We hasten to add that the skids are being super-greased by the UAW's commando
strikes against GM. Even though it's been two months, I still can't believe
that "organized" labor would strike a parts facility - and halt production at
the Saturn plant, the GM life preserver - and idle 6,000 workers in order to
preserve 240 jobs.....for the next eighteen months, tops. Mind-boggling.
-- 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joseph Aloysius McVeigh | "The biggest danger is not doing it right...you only
   jm0i@.Lehigh.edu     |  get so many shots with the cream pie."
       "N.I.N.A."       |              - Doug Watts, Former Reagan Ad Director
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: neil@calvin.ksu.ksu.edu (Neil Erdwien)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: The cream of the garbage
Date: 8 Oct 1992 23:03:48 GMT
Organization: Kansas State University
NNTP-Posting-Host: calvin.ksu.ksu.edu
Keywords: Short selling

In article <2340@gandalf.intel.com> chedley@carthago.intel.com (CHEDLEY_AOURIRI) writes:
>If you know of other good shorts, please post.

How about McAfee & Associates, an IPO from earlier this week?  They make
shareware Virus protection software for MS-DOS.  I have a hard time believing
that a shareware company can significantly grow earnings over time.

--
Neil Erdwien
Kansas State University
neil@ksuvm.ksu.edu
From: GCTHORNE@idbsu.idbsu.edu (Broward Horne)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re:  Income & Wealth & Extreme Density
Date: 9 Oct 92 00:17:46 GMT
Article-I.D.: inet-gw-.9210082329.AA23228
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       Chris dude writes about how the Japanese *didn't* pull out
   of U.S. banks after all.  In past tense.

       I'm not talking in past tense here.

       Jesus Christ.  Norbert was right.

       Here, do some reading.  " The Economist ".   From mid August
   until NOW.

       Is there any way, that you can imagine, that Japanese banks and
   industries, much less its taxpayers, can survive a bank bailout of
   500 to 800 billion dollars?  That works out to somewhere around
   10 to 20K PER TAXPAYER!  Christ, their average taxpayer is already
   smoked, with an average debt to income ratio of 120%.
From: rauchfuss@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM (Brian Rauchfuss)
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1992 19:11:15 GMT
Subject: Re: investing for November elections
Organization: Hewlett-Packard, Fort Collins, CO, USA
Newsgroups: misc.invest

In misc.invest, bakken@cs.arizona.edu (Dave Bakken) writes:

> This is one I like, because I think that a Clinton administration
> will make our national debt go out of sight and I do wonder about
> the banking surprise rumors.

These banking surprise rumors seem strange; banks that survived the initial
real estate crash are raking in money from the high yield curve, bank profits
have been going up.  It seems that if a troubled bank has made it this far, it
would not die, but get better.

BDR
From: rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: another stock market crash? '29 wasn't a surprise.
Date: 15 Oct 92 12:53:45 GMT
Reply-To: rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305)
Distribution: na
Organization: Cookson, Peirce & Co., Pittsburgh, PA

In article <1992Oct11.132757.14609@techbook.com> szabo@techbook.com (Nick Szabo) writes:
>
>From what I understand, the market crashed in 1929 when it became
>apparent that the Smoot-Hawley tarriff was going to pass.  A worldwide
>shrinkage in international trade was anticipated (correctly).
>
That's the current theory.  However, don't overlook the US's attempt to
help support the British pound in the prior years.  This inflation
caused the boom which had to end when the money ran out. (We were still
on the gold standard then).  Smoot-Hawley provided the trigger.
-- 
Bob Peirce, Pittsburgh, PA         rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us         412-471-5320
venetia@investor.pgh.pa.us [NeXT Mail]  !uunet.uu.net!pitt!investor!rbp [UUCP]
Xref: sparky misc.invest:12537 soc.culture.usa:7756
From: bradley@novell.com (Brad Soe)
Newsgroups: misc.invest,soc.culture.usa
Subject: Re: GM to file for chapter 11 Bankruptcy (at least that's the rumor!)
Date: 13 Oct 92 17:10:05 GMT
Organization: Novell Inc., San Jose, Califonia

In article <1992Oct9.104010.1729@falcon.aamrl.wpafb.af.mil> bkottmann@falcon.aamrl.wpafb.af.mil (Brett Kottmann) writes:
>	That's the rumor.  GM suppliers have been calling all over trying to
>find out if it is true.  Looking at their debt picture, one wonders.  I think
>another government bailout would come first, but one never knows what Clinton
>will say next :).  (I've conceded the election to the Slickster.)
>
>	In any event, GM looks very bad.  I'd sell ASAP, or sell short, or buy
>an option to sell.
>
>	Just my $0.02.

Where did you hear such a rumor? You should read this weeks Barrons,
they have a very bullish article about the big 3. I am sure they would
have mentioned a troubled GM. They mentioned that next year there will
be a big turn around in earnings for all three. 

Brad

Brad Soe
bradley@novell.com
From: GCTHORNE@idbsu.idbsu.edu (Broward Horne)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: December Surprise
Date: 15 Oct 92 15:03:35 GMT
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From: demon@desire.wright.edu (Stupendous Man)
Newsgroups: misc.invest,talk.politics.misc
Subject: Re: December Surprise
Date: 14 Oct 92 21:46:47 EST
Followup-To: misc.invest,talk.politics.misc
Organization: Demonic Possesions, Inc.


> No matter who gets elected, your taxes WILL skyrocket, and your standard
> of living WILL go down.

>        Actually they will just stick it directly on the debt.  You won't see
>it but your kids will.

>Brett

        I almost feel sorry for you, Brett.

        " You won't see it  but your kids will "

        I really think you should investigate the situation with
   our government deficit.  I give them maybe one more year.  Perhaps
   two.  I'm planning to vote for Clinton now, because he just plain
   *won't* be able to spend any more.  I'd rather have a bumbler in
   office when it all goes, than Mr. New World Order.

          I expect we'll have some kind of government announcement before
   Christmas 93.
From: samaddar@siemens.com (Sumitro Samaddar)
Newsgroups: misc.invest
Subject: Re: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Renting vs. Owning
Date: 15 Oct 92 21:28:37 GMT
Reply-To: samaddar@siemens.com
Distribution: misc

I haven't seen many of the earlier postings. Please excuse if I'm
repeating points already made.

mitch@giesy.mitch.b17a.ingr.com (Mitch Giesy) writes:

>           A home is an appreciably asset. A [constantly increasing]
>           portion of a monthly mortgage payment goes toward the
>           owner's equity in the home. This is an investment. What is
>           the amount of a rent check that accumulates for the renter? Zero.

This is the standard argument of real estate agents. But, the mortgage payment
has 2 components, principal and interest. Where is the accumulated amount
paid towards this interset component? Down the drain. Just like the rent.
So, rent is basically paying an interest on the house without paying any
component towards principal. As you point out later, a renter could basically
invest this "component towards principal" anywhere else and make capital
gains just like on the house. eg; s/he could invest this component on stocks
and make comparable capital gains. One could use returns from this investment
to reduce rent payments till they gradually vanish.

So what is the catch? Catch is that Uncle Sam subsidizes these investments
towards a home by giving tax deductions on the interest component. IMHO,
there shouldn't be any tax deductions on home mortgages. A person is not
doing the nation any favor by buying a house. He is only doing himself a
favor. Why should he get tax deductions for that? Giving tax deductions
on homes diverts capital away from more productive investments, encourages
suburbs, long commutes, etc. etc.

But anyway, as long as the tax deduction is there, people will buy houses
as investment. Unless, with the U.S. in economic decline, home values don't
appreciate as much as in the past.

Sumitro
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: schnepf@myria.cs.umn.edu (James A. Schnepf)
Subject: Re: Inheritance exemption to be reduced to $200K??!!
Organization: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, CSci dept.
Distribution: usa
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1992 14:36:38 GMT

In article <1992Oct7.114749.12572@investor.pgh.pa.us> rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:
>In article <1992Oct1.222231.25689@cbnewsh.cb.att.com> geopi@cbnewsh.cb.att.com (george.p.cotsonas) writes:
>>In article <1992Sep25.151942.9246@microsoft.com>, philco@microsoft.com (Phillip Cooper) writes:
>>> 
>>> In any event, I surely hope you are not counting on any benefits from
>>> the FICA you are now paying.  It won't be there when you retire. Period.
>>
>>Anybody ever sued the government about this abominable chicanery?
>>
>>I'm sick of this tax being masqueraded as "social security",
>
>To the best of my knowledge nobody has ever claimed it WASN'T a tax.

LOTS of people think/claim it is not a tax. Why else can the
government get by with the EXTREME regressive aspect of FICA? IF I am
at the lower end of the income spectrum (including under the poverty
line) I pay in 7.5%, but if I am mister big bucks, the % is << !

In addition, if I happen to work for the Federal government, I don't
have to pay in at all since I have a separate retirement fund I pay
into (After all, it wouldn't be fair for me to pay into two retirement
funds would it?). 



>Therefore, there has never been an obligation to pay it back.  It has
>just been the "good faith" [fear] of our politicians that has kept it
>from being added to the general pool of funds to be thrown down the
>rathole.  Note that this good faith is beginning to slip with respect
>to the "highway trust fund", another tax pool over which the pols are
>salivating.

Sorry, it's too late. It already has been put into the pool. What do
you think our annual deficit would be if the Feds didn't apply the SS
surplus to the budget numbers? Closer to $600B instead of the $400B
currently claimed (an absurd number as it is!. OH-oh, we just went
another $600,000 in the hole in the minute that I took writing this.)


>-- 
>Bob Peirce, Pittsburgh, PA         rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us         412-471-5320
>venetia@investor.pgh.pa.us [NeXT Mail]  !uunet.uu.net!pitt!investor!rbp [UUCP]


Jim Schnepf
schnepf@cs.umn.edu
Newsgroups: misc.invest
From: ohumukin@spectra.com (Kawika Ohumukini)
Subject: Re: Re: Game over ( was Income & Wealth & Bankruptcy
Organization: Spectragraphics Corporation
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 92 15:51:15 GMT

In article <8190135@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM> rauchfuss@hpfcso.FC.HP.COM (Brian Rauchfuss) writes:
>In misc.invest, ohumukin@spectra.com (Kawika Ohumukini) writes:
>
>(talking about people who save money)
>
>> 	They should be penalized because by saving they are affectively
>> 	taking the wealth of the economy out of the cycle.
>> 
>> 	Kawika 
>
>Quite the opposite, people who save usually put the money in the bank (who loan
>it out), or into bonds or stocks.  The money can then be put to use in capital
>improvements.  A country with a high saving rate (such as Japan) will have a
>lower cost of capital and be able to make more investments in the future.
>
>BDR

	Again I wasn't clear, check a previous post where I attempted
	to correct, I was speaking of those who "stuff the mattress".

	Kawika 
Newsgroups: misc.invest