From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- NL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Wed, 26 Aug 1992 16:27:19 GMT

                  NL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
                 (through games of Tuesday, August 25)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maddux         CHI   15.4   5.5  0.737   15  9   2.24   43.3   4.72
Tewksbury      STL   13.3   5.1  0.724   12  5   2.25   35.6   3.85
Smoltz         ATL   13.8   8.1  0.630   14  8   2.98   25.2   2.82
Swindell       CIN   12.6   7.1  0.638   12  5   2.86   24.9   2.64
Drabek         PIT   13.2   7.8  0.626   10  9   2.72   27.2   2.43
Swift          SFG   10.4   5.1  0.671    9  3   2.36   23.9   2.52
Glavine        ATL   13.1   7.9  0.625   19  4   3.03   23.5   2.62
Morgan         CHI   12.1   7.1  0.631   12  6   2.98   23.6   2.37
Schilling      PHI    9.8   5.4  0.647    9  6   2.79   19.6   2.14
Martinez,D     MON   11.2   7.6  0.596   13 10   3.17   16.3   1.69
Avery          ATL   11.4   8.5  0.572   10  8   3.40   15.1   1.34
Leibrandt      ATL    9.9   7.0  0.584   10  5   3.62    8.5   1.44
Fernandez      NYM   10.2   7.6  0.575   11  9   3.00   14.4   1.22
Rijo           CIN    9.5   6.8  0.581   10  9   3.25   14.0   1.09
Barnes         MON    5.0   2.4  0.674    4  4   2.37   12.2   1.34
Hill           MON   10.5   8.0  0.566   13  7   3.35   12.2   1.16
Portugal       HOU    6.1   3.9  0.611    5  3   2.80   10.8   1.01
Hurst,B        SDP   11.5   9.3  0.551   13  7   3.56    7.0   0.97
Nabholz        MON    9.2   7.8  0.542    9  9   3.53    8.2   0.66
Bielecki       ATL    4.8   3.4  0.586    2  4   3.18    7.8   0.73



Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Wilson,T       SFG    6.6  11.1  0.373    8 13   4.89  -18.7  -2.13
Martinez,R     LAD    7.2  11.2  0.391    8 11   4.90  -20.4  -1.96
Young,A        NYM    2.8   6.3  0.307    1  7   5.79  -17.8  -1.69
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8  0.358    1 13   4.95  -10.5  -1.65
Gooden         NYM    6.3   9.8  0.393    7 11   4.41  -11.6  -1.73
Henry,B        HOU    7.2  10.6  0.407    4  9   4.54  -12.5  -1.51
Bowen          HOU    0.1   3.0  0.037    0  4  14.14  -16.8  -1.40
Hershiser      LAD    7.9  10.8  0.424    9 10   4.45  -13.8  -1.45
Hammond        CIN    5.9   8.6  0.405    7  8   4.65   -7.3  -1.25
Blair          HOU    0.2   3.0  0.064    0  4  10.31  -13.8  -1.34



Luckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Glavine        ATL   13.0   7.9    19  4    9.9
Burkett        SFG    8.1   9.8    11  6    6.7
Lefferts       SDP    7.6   9.7    12  8    6.0
Cone           NYM   11.2  10.0    13  7    4.8
Black          SFG    7.2   7.8    10  6    4.6
Seminara       SDP    3.6   4.9     6  3    4.3
Tomlin         PIT    9.3   9.3    12  8    4.0
Ojeda          LAD    6.1   9.0     6  5    4.0
Hurst,B        SDP   11.4   9.3    13  7    3.9
Hill           MON   10.4   8.0    13  7    3.6



Unluckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8     1 13   -8.5
Gross          LAD    7.6   9.1     6 12   -4.5
Drabek         PIT   13.2   7.8    10  9   -4.3
Schourek       NYM    4.5   4.5     2  6   -4.0
Clark,M        STL    4.3   5.4     2  7   -3.9
Maddux         CHI   15.4   5.5    15  9   -3.9
Cormier        STL    6.9   9.1     4 10   -3.8
Kile           HOU    4.1   6.5     2  8   -3.6
Whitehurst     NYM    1.7   2.2     0  4   -3.4
Castillo       CHI    8.5   8.4     7 10   -3.2



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL     55.1   36.2   0.603   53.8   59  29   3.21   3.02   9.34
CHI     49.5   36.7   0.574   47.2   46  42   3.44   3.18   5.97
MON     47.7   39.2   0.549   46.0   54  43   3.49   3.44   4.25
PIT     47.3   42.7   0.526   45.2   42  40   3.67   3.72   2.17
STL     45.2   42.0   0.519   44.3   35  42   3.86   3.79   1.33
CIN     43.8   42.3   0.508   42.2   47  41   3.91   3.77   0.54
NYM     42.6   44.1   0.491   41.3   38  47   3.79   4.00  -0.91
SDP     41.8   47.7   0.467   40.2   46  43   4.19   4.25  -2.95
SFG     40.2   48.0   0.456   38.7   40  45   4.28   4.45  -3.70
LAD     41.4   50.0   0.453   40.3   40  51   4.11   4.32  -4.33
PHI     38.5   51.2   0.429   37.3   34  49   4.64   4.51  -5.99
HOU     37.1   50.2   0.425   35.7   27  48   4.59   4.77  -6.58
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NL     530.3  530.3   0.500  512.2  508 520   3.92   3.92  -0.87


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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