From: nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson)
Subject: Re: Death of America 3
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1992 15:11:36 GMT
Organization: Hewlett-Packard Corporation, Chelmsford, MA

In article <1gr1liINNdh1@usenet.INS.CWRU.Edu> an030@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Broward Horne) writes:
>
>In a previous article, nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson) says:
>
>>In article <1go0t1INNd2c@usenet.INS.CWRU.Edu> an030@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Broward Horne) writes:
>>
>>>
>>>      Ah.  *my* comment.  You misinterpret.  I don't believe eliminating
>>>    the Federal government will fix the problem.  I believe it is TIME
>>>    to eliminate it regardless.  Patriotism != Federal Government.
>>
>>   But this is an even *bigger* faith-based presumption.  No nontrivial
>>   sized modern society or economy has ever existed without a strong
>>   central government (which is what I presume you mean by "eliminate
>
>
>      I mean "eliminate the Federal government".  It's coming anyway.

  The idea that you can predict such things is an even BIGGER 
  faith-based presumption!


>>   the federal government".  please correct me if you really meant
>>   Honestly I don't know why the posters to this thread have suddenly
>>   become so apocalyptic.   I work in the computer business: my company
>>   (HP) and all those around me are downsizing. DEC, IBM, Apple,
>>   Compaq, Data General, etc etc have all announced massive layoffs.
>
>
>    Look, you JUSTIFY my statement about the Federal government with
>    your examples here.  

  I do??!  How so?   Companies have big layoffs and this means the 
  federal government is on the way out??   Get real.  Companies have 
  had big layoffs forever.   I would not have wanted to be in the 
  blacksmith industry when methods were discovered to mass-produce
  precision metal parts.   Or the buggy-whip industry when cars 
  came along.  Or the US TV industry when the Japanese started 
  selling TV's in the US using radical design concepts like 
  printed circuit boards and transistors.    What's happening
  in the computer industry reflects the usual technological and
  market shifts that occur all the time -- it has nothing to 
  do with big government.


>    And, speaking for myself, I haven't "suddenly " become apocalyptic.     
>     I been watching the whole show since 1987, and I'm about a 95%
>    confidence level that the times I grew up in, ar going away forever.
>
>    Here:
>
>    1987 - The greatest NYSE crash ever.

  "Ever"?    Then how come the market is higher today than it was
  then?   That crash was a paper crash -- it didn't reflect any 
  sudden change in the fundamentals.  Look, you're posting from a
  .edu site so I assume you're young.   I've probably been investing 
  since before you were born.   The "crash" of '87 was nothing.


>    And since:
>
>       Berlin Wall.  Collapse of Russia.  Death camps in Bosnia.  Collapse
>       of Japanese Market.  Collapse of Italian market.  Desert Storm. 
>     Somalia.  Bejing.

   Yeah, "news".   Like the Yom-Kippur War, Vietnam, the riots in 
   Detroit and Watts, Idi Amin in Uganda, Biafra, the wars between 
   India and Pakistan, the Left Bank riots, the Cuban Missile Crisis,
   Britain devaluing the pound, etc, etc.    You must have just fallen
   off a turnip truck!      
   
>  A "recession" that defies understanding.  

   In one sense, *all* recessions defy understanding, since there's
   not exactly a science of economics.  But on the other hand there
   seems to be broad agreement on certain things: everybody had a
   debt party in the 1980's: the levels of government+corporate+private
   debt were 103% of GDP by 1990 (source: Economist), and this happened
   to coincide with major structural changes (see anything Lester
   Thurow has written recently).   So a recession is no big surprise.

>     Riots across the United States.  Riots in Japan.  Riots in Mexico.
>     Racist riots in Germany.  Riots in France and Ireland.

   There have always been riots.  These riots are nothing compared
   to some riots the world has seen.

>  Belfast.

   Belfast?   This has been simmering for years!   What does this have 
   to do with anything?!


>     A government deficit of truly unbelievable size. 

  Well noted by everyone, but there are plenty of historical examples
  of US and other governments running even bigger deficits as a %
  of GDP and living to tell about it.


>      Are you aware of just how atypical 1945 to 1992 was?  

  EVERYTHING after the Industrial Revolution was "atypical"!!  
  Do you have any idea how atypical 1820-1850 was?   Or 1860-
  1880?   And so on.  We live in a time a constant change.  Deal
  with it.


>      Is any of this getting through?
>
>      Hello!?

  Get a grip.


---peter




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