From: hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall)
Subject: Re: How/Where to play DD in LV
Organization: NASA/ARC Information Sciences Division
Distribution: na
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1992 18:45:44 GMT

In article <1992Oct8.105731.603@fibers> mbuck@fibers (Michael D. Buck) writes:
>In article <1992Oct7.194417.19624@kronos.arc.nasa.gov>, hall@kronos.arc.nasa.gov (Michael Hall) writes:
>> In article <1992Oct7.140922.599@fibers> mbuck@fibers (Michael D. Buck) writes:
>> 
>>>In DD, to get a 1-8 or 1-16 spread without raising attention, you'd
>>>have to go progressively from 1->4->8->16, or something similar,
>>>right? (I'd think that even *that* sequence would warrant attention. 
>>>Or am I paranoid?)
>> 
>> Well, insert a 2 unit bet in there, 1->2->4->8->16, and it's a bit
>> better.
>
>That sequence takes 5 hands to complete.  In order to get that 16-unit
>bet out there when the true count is high, do you have to start upping the
>bet to 2 and 4 units when the true count isn't really high enough to 
>warrant those bets?  Another way to phrase what I'm asking is, if you
>wait until the count starts to go positive to bet that 2-unit bet, how
>much chance is there that the count will stay (or get) positive enough
>for the 16-unit bet to be warranted?  What if the true count stays at
>zero for several hands?  Do you stick with the 1-unit bet, or bounce
>between one and two for awhile to make it look good?  Is this question
>making any sense whatsoever?

Head-on, the true count will change relatively slowly (usually) in
double deck.  IMHO, you do usually have some time to maneuver, and if
you double your bet each time, then obviously you'll quickly catch
up to the proper bet.  I do know counters who increase their bet
early in the deck faster than the count dictates, in order to be
able to put out a max bet deep in the deck, but I don't recommend
this - except that if the rules are good (i.e., the off the
top expected value is near zero) you can get away with using 2 units
as your normal bet, dropping down to 1 unit if the count goes negative.
Having a 2 unit normal bet makes it likely they will regard your
8 or 16 unit bets as more like 4 or 8 unit bets.

One of my favorite cover plays when using a big spread is going from
1 unit to 2 units when the count went negative on the first round.
You could do this throughout the deck, but then I'd suggest doing it
just on the basis of the previous round - if the running count went
up slightly, decrease your bet by one unit, and if the running count
went down slightly, increase your bet by one unit.  And then double
or halve your bet later to readjust.  This will really confuse the critters.

>[In full table SD]
>> Because 50% of your bets are off the top, good rules are critically
>> important for a 2 rounds situation
>
>*How* good do you typically demand?  Obviously, Frontier rules (DOA,S17,DAS)
>are good.

Yes.  2 rounds of 6 at Frontier has almost the exact same return on
investment as 2 rounds of 7 at Circus (DOA, S17), by the way, assuming
you use strategy adjustments, of course.

>But, how about Excalibur (D9-10-11,S17,No DAS)?  Good enough?
>How about Downtown?  (DOA,H17,No DAS)

These are about the same, and are playable, but not as profitable
as the Frontier or Circus game.  2 rounds of 7 with DOA, H17, DAS
(a game formerly found at the former Bally's in Reno) is probably
nearly as good as the Frontier or Circus Game.

>Do little things like RSA at
>Horseshoe make enough of a difference on a full 2x7 SD table?

Nah.  Besides, Horseshoe doesn't have 7 spot tables, it has 6 spot tables.
I haven't specificly looked at 2 rounds of 6 spots with downtown rules,
but I'm pretty sure it would suck big time.

2 rounds of 7 with Northern Nevada rules (H17, D10/11, no DOA, no DAS)
is unplayable.

>How about this new 2:1 payoff
>for Red BJ's I'm hearing about at several LV casinos?

Figure out the basic strategy expectation for whatever game you're
interested in, and here's my intuitive summary of how good 2x6 or 2x7 is
for a card counter using strategy adjustments:

 >= 0.2%           2x6 good, 2x7 card counter heaven
    0.0%           2x6 okay, 2x7 good
   -0.2%           2x6 poor, 2x7 okay
 <=-0.4%           2x6  and  2x7 card counter hell

Usually, rules don't make that big a difference, but when half of
your bets are made with no information, the rules are paramount.

-- 
Michael Hall            \ If you don't get barred occasionally,
NASA Ames Research Center\ you're not playing aggressively enough.
hall@ptolemy.arc.nasa.gov \ - paraphrased from BJ Forum