From: me@vikings.austin.ibm.com (Michael E)
Subject: Vouchers; erroneously labeled: State Income Tax
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1993 20:12:55 GMT
Distribution: tx
Organization: Tickling the ivories.
Keywords: statistics, lies

In article <1993Jan23.025458.9672@rpp386> jfh@rpp386.cactus.org (John F. Haugh II) writes:
>In article <C17z6J.1MHD@austin.ibm.com> me@vikings.austin.ibm.com (Michael E) writes:
>>Your "fact" does not address the problem.  
>Actually, your refutation is far more interesting than my factoid ...
Well I'm glad I can provide entertaining arguments. Maybe I should get
my own 10:30 pm talk show.... :)

>>First, the statistic applies to the current American schooling situation. 
>>The amount of students requesting entry into private schools will drop 
>>acceptance rates to unpopular levels under the voucher system. 
>Yes, that's true.  And it's true because people will flock, in greater
>numbers than before, to private schools.
Aye, they'll flock BUT most will not get their children accepted. Public schools
will eventually figure this out and realize the private sector cannot meet
the demand and will not get sufficient pressure to change- in fact they will
provide even less quality education.
Why will the private sector fail to meet demand?
o	They do not have the infrastructure like public schools.
o	They do not enjoy the innate connections with government.
o	They do not enjoy the cooperation of other schools. Public schools
	gain immense economies of scale over their private bretheren. Public
	schools organized into schools districts (or whatever cute terms your
	local area labels them) can greatly influence their external contacts
	such as textbook publishers because they represent entire regions- not
	merely a school.
o	Private sector curriculum varies widely. While parents in some areas
	can choose among a few private schools, many will find most private
	schools do not satisfy their list of important considerations. Yes
	I agree many will still choose a private school INITIALLY but they will
	begin to build greater misgivings as the voucher system destroys
	public and private education.
o	Private schools will dilute their teacher to student ratio and take
	other actions detrimental to quality education in order to try to meet
	supply. Not *every* private school will do this (disclaimer for the 
	anal crowd), but most will.
	Mass production means uncustomized education: private school voucher
	advocates will learn private schools teach well now because they teach
	so few.

Consider this: a public school bus picks up tens of kids. For every kid 
that opts for a private school with no bus, one additional vehicle uses up 
equipment, fuel, roads, and time (after all the school bus will run for the 
remaining children). Quite a number of enviromental and parental 
finance problems the voucher system creates...

>  Fixed quantity of something
>or other divided by large quantity of consumer means a smaller fraction
>of the consumers get the good or service.
Given that line of reasoning, the increase in demand means private schools
can charge even more, making most parents incapable of even applying to 
private schools. Worthless vouchers, eh? What then?

And if I were a public school administrator I would hike my prices to private
school levels (fewer kids => better classroom situation), and create a parental
nightmare: Parents who can't afford schooling at all! While we are at it, let
me put a cap on students admitted at my public school, and now we have parents
with no place to take there kids to learn!! How could this occur? Because
we want free enterprise, and it would violate our principles to force public
schools to accept all students and limit prices while exempting private schools
from these restrictions. Can you say "unfair business restrictions"? Can you
say "lawsuits"?

>>Second, the statistic does not mention how someone arrived at that figure. 
>>The following lists some questions any good debater or statistician would 
>>want answers to:
>>o	What population of schools did the researcher cover?
>>o	Does the figure represent an average? If so, which average (e.g.
>>	mean) did they use? What standard deviations did they come up with
>>	and why did they not list them?
Unanswered!
>>o	Do the population of schools inquired live in the same environment
>>	(e.g. same state laws, funding)?
Unanswered!
>>o	Where does the data come from? If from other sources (e.g. the schools
>>	themselves) then how reliable are they? How consistent do the 
>>	external sources collect their data? 
Unanswered!
>>o	Define applicants. Define accept.
Unanswered!
>>o	Where did you get the statistic?
Unanswered!
>
>At the 98% level there isn't much room for deviation.  Let's say that
>the standard deviation is 10%.  Oh wait, it can't be 10% because you
>can't have more than 100% acceptance and that would mean the data is
>so skewed towards 98% that the standard deviation would be about 1%
>anyhow.  Hmmm.
In a class on managing a political campaign braodcasted on C-SPAN, a speaker
noted that one of their polls gave a woman candidate 3% name recognition
with a 5% margin of error. Just a real life example. 

>Next is the school populations.  See rules about selecting valid
>statistical samples and the applicability of small samples to larger
>populations.
I know about this- kind of obvious since I brought up the issues, huh?
Provide the data- or do you wish to concede that your source
doesn't bother to mention it?

>Next is the sample area.  Actually, it was the worst possible population.
>Poor minorities.
Great! Talk about a small fraction of the population of American parents!
Furthermore, most reside in the inner cities: very applicable to suburban
and rural areas.

>  Presumably rich non-minorities get in at least as
>often as poor minorities.
"Presumably"- Didn't you mention the word "applicability" before?
No evidence, no truth.

>>Don't use stats unless you give the entire picture.
>Get a clue.
I AM trying to get a clue: Give a source, give data!
Better yet: multiple, verifiable sources.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" 
- Disraeli

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