From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1992 10:23:51 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 347, 12/12/92
10.7 FLUX=165.6  90-AVG=134        SSN=179      BKI=2101 2221  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B5.2     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2001 2222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=018,006,006,005,012,012,010,-5506   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.6   @ 1552UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.6   @ 1740UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2145UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2050UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2305UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1510UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 0257UT   BOUTF-MIN=55396NT @ 1847UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1834UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+006NT@ 1007UT  G7-AVG=+089,+026,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+151NT@ 1834UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 2237UT  G6-AVG=+105,-007,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:170,170,175;SESC:170,170,175 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,007,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2233 3322 2223 3322  27DAY-AP=013,007   27DAY-KP=3222 4433 3122 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:2202-2346UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. A few small C-class subflares
       occurred. Gradual growth continued in Regions 7362 (S05W23) and
       7366 (S12E44). In contrast, Region 7360 (S17W10) showed minor
       decay. No new regions were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7362, 7363 (S08E18), and 7366 are expected
       to produce C-class subflares. Region 7362 also provides a
       slight chance for an M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Brief periods of
       active conditions are possible at high latitudes during the
       first half of the period.

            Event probabilities 13 dec-15 dec

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 dec-15 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/10
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  No changes are expected for the next 72 hours
       (through 15 December inclusive).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S18W50  205  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7360  S18W09  164  0390 EAO  12  033 BETA
7362  S06W23  178  0580 EKI  11  041 BETA
7363  S08E19  136  0140 DAO  09  014 BETA
7364  N09E16  139  0060 CSO  04  004 BETA
7365  S21W43  198  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7366  S12E44  111  0090 DAO  06  014 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 DECEMBER TO 15 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7345 S23   057
7346 S08   053


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 2356 2356 2356                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
12/B0950             A2238       N24E80   DSF
12/B0950             A2238       N36E55   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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