From: jmk@cbnews.cb.att.com (joseph.m.knapp)
Subject: Re: A guess at the electoral votes (was Re: Some state polls)
Organization: AT&T
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1992 20:01:59 GMT
Keywords: electoral college, electoral votes, poll, polls, states

king@cogsci.ucsd.EDU (Jonathan King) writes:
>
>But, hey: let's try to be systematic.  As of 9/9/92, this is how I
>conservatively see the race ending up in November.  (States listed in
>approximate order of strength for both candidates.)
>
>CLINTON LOCKS		CLINTON ADVANTAGE
>
>State	EVs		State	EVs
>
>AR	 6		CA	54	; the biggie
>DC	 3		IA	 7
>WV	 5		WA	11
>HI	 4		OR	 7
>MN	10		TN	11
>WI	11		VT	 3
>RI	 4
>MA	12
>MD	10
>NY	33
>
>Total	98		Total	93
>
>GRAND CLINTON TOTAL	191		; note that this is just Dukakis
>					; in 1988 plus CA, VT, AR, and TN
>
>
>BUSH LOCKS		BUSH ADVANTAGE
>
>State	EVs		State	EVs
>
>UT	 5		ME	 4		
>ID	 4		NH	 4
>AK	 3		VA	13
>SC	 8		NE	 5
>MS	 7		KS	 8
>MT	 3		AZ	 8	; a loss here could be death
>WY	 3		TX	32	; a loss here is almost instant death
>IN	12		FL	25
>ND	 3		NJ	15
>SD	 3		NM	 5	; I've heard of problems in NM (!)
>AL	 7		LA	 9	; same here in LA
>NV	 4		NC	14	; NC is worth more EVs than before
>			DE	 3
>
>Total	62		Total	145
>
>GRAND BUSH TOTAL	207
>
>
>SWING STATES
>
>LEAN CLINTON		LEAN BUSH	
>
>State	EVs		State	EVs
>
>MO	11		OK	 8	; MO may be stronger for Clinton
>CT	 8		CO	 8	; CO is overlooked as a swing state
>PA	23		GA	13	; both PA and GA are very important
>IL	22		OH	21	; IL may be stronger for Clinton
>MI	18		KY	 8	; KY reports early...stomaches flutter?
>					
>Total	82		Total	58
>
>
>CLINTON LOCK PLUS ADVANTAGE PLUS LEAN	273
>
>BUSH LOCK PLUS ADVANTAGE PLUS LEAN	265
>
>
>Comments?


For comparison purposes, here is the current electoral situation as 
proclaimed by a map in the New York Times, 9/6/92:

 Republican leaning states:

        Dukakis
         1988     electoral    cum.
 st    plurality    votes      votes
 ==    =========  =========    =====
 UT      -34.8          5          5
 ID      -26.6          4          9
 NH      -26.5          4         13
 AK      -24.3          3         16
 SC      -24.1          8         24
 WY      -22.8          3         27
 FL      -22.5         25         52
 NV      -21.6          4         56
 AZ      -21.5          8         64
 NE      -21.1          5         69
 MS      -21.0          7         76
 VA      -20.7         13         89
 GA      -20.4         13        102
 IN      -20.3         12        114
 AL      -19.5          9        123
 OK      -16.8          8        131
 KS      -13.5          6        137
 ND      -13.2          3        140
 TX      -12.7         32        172
 SD       -6.4          3        175
 
 
 Democratic leaning states:

        Dukakis
         1988     electoral    cum.
 st    plurality    votes      votes
 ==    =========  =========    =====
 DC       70.5          3          3
 RI       11.8          4          7
 IA       10.3          7         14
 HI        9.6          4         18
 MA        8.0         12         30
 MN        7.1         10         40
 OR        4.8          7         47
 NY        4.1         33         80
 WV        4.8          5         85
 WI        3.6         11         96
 WA        1.6         11        107
 MD       -2.9         10        117
 PA       -2.3         23        140
 IL       -2.1         22        162
 CA       -3.6         54        216
 AR      -14.4          6        222
 TN      -16.4         11        233
 
 
 
 Toss-up states:

        Dukakis
          1988    electoral    cum.
 st    plurality    votes      votes
 ==    =========  =========    =====
 VT       -3.6          3          3
 MO       -4.0         11         14
 NM       -5.0          5         19
 CT       -5.2          8         27
 MT       -6.0          3         30
 CO       -7.9          8         38
 MI       -8.0         18         56
 LA      -10.4          9         65
 OH      -10.9         21         86
 ME      -11.5          4         90
 KY      -11.7          8         98
 DE      -12.5          3        101
 NJ      -13.8         15        116
 NC      -16.3         14        130


Assuming that the NYT leaning category is equivalent to your advantage+lock
categories combined, and their toss-up equals your swing category, the 
differences with your assessment are:

                    jking                 NYT
                    =================     ===============
VT                  Clinton advantage     toss-up
MT                  Bush lock             toss-up
ME NJ NM LA NC DE   Bush advantage        toss-up
PA IL               swing                 Clinton leaning
OK GA               swing                 Bush leaning

---
Joe Knapp     jmk@cbvox.att.com
Xref: sparky alt.politics.elections:12633 alt.activism:16047 talk.politics.misc:44207