From: oberland@vax.sonoma.edu
Newsgroups: rec.games.board
Subject: Re: A&A - I think I found it!!!!
Date: 14 Dec 92 12:03:02 GMT
 <sf_Euk600VB=Q4z0VC@andrew.cmu.edu><1992Dec12.223920.1@vax.sonoma.edu> <cf=5Gku00VB=8=8Uwy@andrew.cmu.edu>
Organization: Sonoma State University

In article <cf=5Gku00VB=8=8Uwy@andrew.cmu.edu>, Erik Lauer <el0g+@andrew.cmu.edu> writes:
>>Gheezhus!
>>Lessee...
>>I ran a program(thanks, BARRY!)that simulates combat accurately.
>>
>>results:
>>17i in Russia, no flak hit:(all results +-2%, Mutual kill is considered
> a "win"
>>for my purposes)  76% I win
>>17, 1 hit(avg) 52%
>>18, N:51
>>18, 1:35
>>19, N:32
>>19, 1:30
>>
>>There.  The results do not lie.  For you as Russia to keep me from
> pasting you,
>>you HAVE to put 18i or more in Karelia.
>>Problem is:  I then coast into Caucasus, and revert to my original plan.
> 
> Yes, but the whole time I was saying that Russia puts 19inf, 3 tanks, 2
> planes in Karelia.  The results show that I was correct in thinking that
> Germany does not take most of the time (if you count mutual as a win,
> remember this leave Britain free to use its airforce to wipe out your
> fleet, land the fighters in Karelia, and Russia builds there too (moving
> the AA gun out since you have no planes).

JUST hold on a minute.... I find it wierd to see your lack of being able to
follow my thinking, but here goes again....
 
>>IF Russia figures that I will go defensive, it is not uncommon for them to buy
>>ONE tank or possibly two.
>>The odds for me taking it with a total of 21A+I is fairly good.  At the very
>>LEAST, I will fry them down to about 1 fighter or two.
>>So, they have a choice: buy a tank, and be forced to leave 1piece in Caucasus,
>>OR forget about attacking me, and have me spread out.
>>Their buying *ONE* tank reduces them to placing 7 units, so at MOST 18 units
>>could be placed, leaving Caucasus OPEN.(BADDDD option)
>>So, 17 units if they buy a tank.
>>(this is where I got the 17 figure, btw)
> 
> Well OK I guess it is not uncommon for you to play bad allied players
> then.  Building tanks makes it more likely that Germany will take
> Karelia the first turn.  The 4 tanks and 2 fighters are enough to back
> up their inf for now.

BAD play?  I have SHOWN that they have a bad choice to make.  Attack vs
defense.  IF they think that I will attack, then they buy defense.  The reverse
holds true.  My plan is to do the OPPOSITE of wehat they prepare for, thereby
forcing them into a worst-case battle.
They build i, I spread out and force them to go on the offensive, without extra
tanks.
They build a, I kill Karelia

****THEY MOVE _BEFORE_ I DO****
How in the hell are they going to read my mind and know if I will be defensive
or offensive?

The last game I played, and most I have played, they have left 2i or built
an armor and had 18i in Karelia(the best option to counter my plans).
The result, no matter what they do, is that they are toast by turn two.

>>If they buy two tanks, assuming I will do my first plan, then I can turn them
>>into bean-dip(:) )
> 
> Exactly.  Why would they do this?

Guess they are going to tanke me over with infantry?  WHat if I go defensive?
3a and 2f is crap to attack with, and the 3a are dead on my counter-attacks.
Hm.. 2f for turn 3.  Not good.

Even IF I attack the 19i plan, they are left with too little to even take
ukraine or caucasus back, unless UK takes Caucasus at heavy losses)
-will explain later-
 
>>Seems like a good plan, as they loose ground either way.
>>plan 1:send 6 or more pieces into each area.  Transport 2i into Norway
> as well,
>>IF I wish(not too important, though).  Wait for their attack.
>>plan 2:send it all into Karelia
> 
> Plan 1:  Which 6 units go to the caucuses?  Unless you transport there
> (is that what you do with it the first turn?)  3 of the units are tanks
> waiting for Russian counter attack.  If you tell me which units are
> where, I could tell you what I think Russians should attack where.  I
> doubt the Russians will be attacking Norway the second turn anyway (they
> should wait for the allies to crush it while the Russians fight the
> other units).

Coming up at end of post
 
>>IF they have 20 2's in Karelai or less, fry it.
>>IF they have more, use plan one
>>simple, and effective.
>>
>>They can't tell what I will do, and so, they stand to loose unless they guess
>>EXACTLY right, and can read my mind.
> 
> Sure.  I am saying that as the Russians I would have 22 2's, and 2 4's
> there + 1 tank in Russia.  What do you put where?

As I said, coming up. Look, I win no matter what.  So 2f and maybe 1 or 2i
survive(if I am unlucky)-SOME invasion force they have, eh?
and I have 9 a and 6i waiting to kill those off.  MUTUAL DESTRUCTION IS
ACCEPTABLE for Germany.

>>About the UK taking it back, GET REAL.
>>The armor in range HAVE to go to India to save it, or you can kiss Asia
>>goodbye.
>>NOTHING else can reach, unless they want to blow their attack on their first
>>turn in asia by sending the fighter.
>>SEND that one fighter to me!  I enjoy 1-2 I vs that fighter and infantry!
>>looks like the UK has a NASTY choice to make... >:)         
>>I kill ONE piece, and they choose to loose the I or the F.  No I=no territory
>>taken back! No F=India is toast! Send it all, and loose India anyway!
> 
> In your previous plan you stated you where attacking Caucuses with 1
> armor and a bb, where did the 2 inf come from? 1 fighter and an inf vs.
> 1 2 probably don't lose anything.  If the Germans threw everything into
> Karelia and did not take it, I would lose the fighter if it causes me to
> take.  I immediately recoup 3$ of the 9 difference, keep Germany from
> having an immediate threat on Russia (allowing far more units to be
> placed in Karelia).  Plus, if Germany sends everything to Karelia again,
> I might just hold this place from them.

This depends if I send 2i OR 1a in(I CAN do either!)
IF I do my first plan, there is too much to even bother with.
TAKING Caucasus is a bonus, but not necessarry.  I am ONLY interested in
kitting them HARRRRD for 3 turns, possibly 4 , and letting Japan coast in.
If I fry myself on them, that is acceptable.  I can do so much attrition that
UK and US have to waste resources propping up Russia.

ALSO, my previous statement is TRUE. they loose the i or the f.  loose the i
and Caucasus is still mine!  That i is CRUCIAL to India's defense!  Get rid of
it, and I will GLADLY take India over as Japan!  UK has to play damage-control.
Loose the F, and they don't have a prayer in Asia.
 
>>Joe
>>P.S. the "dice of Joe" do not exist.  YOU try putting 19i in Karelia and
>>see how well you are off when I send 6-8 into Caucasus and fortify myself
>>everywhere else!
> 
> OK, just tell me what you put where, and I will tell you where the
> Russians attack and what they use.  I am sure that last time you said
> there was not a good way for the Russians to counterattack.  None of the
> Russian plans you mentioned worked, but mine crushed the German units,
> at favorable attrition and bonus production.  I am dubius of your new
> plan, I would think that 8 units in Caucasus means German tanks get
> crushed.  If you are sending 8 units there anyway (including a fair
> number of tanks), the Russian's leaving 3 units instead of 1 means the
> Russians lose 2 more units, and maybe kill 1 German unit in return. 
> This seems to hurt the Russians.

As they say, hindsight is 20-20.  I will run my program and see what I need to
kill your crappy infantry stack off.  btw, you CANNOT attack more than 3
places.
UK/US cannot take Norway the first turn.  Period!
So, I will tell you what I place where, but remember, you will have your Allied
plans with hours to mull over them, and they will all be messed up due to
your rescue attempts.  I can easily keep you from attacking Germany until turn
4 or 5.
 
>>My plan hurts Russia very badly, and has a fair chance of killing their
>>fighters, which NEVER get replaced.  Without those fighters, EVEN if the UK
>>sends in theirs, turn two is a pushover(10i,2f vs 6i,8a).  I stand to wipe
>>out the allied air-force at the worst.
>>turn 3 is even worse, with 7-8 a coming in.
> 
> As far as I can see your plan is to not attack Russia if they stack up
> in Karelia (I have never seen the Russians do anything else when they
> can not attack the first turn).  So I don't think your plan has any
> chance of whipping out the Russian fighters the first turn.

Statisitcs SHOW that they have an average 2f in Karelia, and maybe 1 or 2a.
This is not enough to survive my next attack!  UK has to send fighters in
JUST to save Russia's butt!  I can keep up armor for 4 attacks.
One or two remaining infantry will not keep Japan from backstabbing Russia.
(You DID send something to reinforce your backside?-oops! It ALL went into
Karelia for two turns!)
Japan also cleans up fleeing units(even at the cost of their fighters) that are
trying to get to Karelia.
Japan also bombs.

ONE NOTE: where the hell does that flak go?  You said it was moved out.  This
seems like wishful thinking.  UNless you move the one in Russia, you are out of
luck.  looks like that flak is Japan's(the one`e that WAS in Russia)
Takiing it to Caucasus would mean that UK took it back at the loss of India.

 
>>Killing those fighters, and forcing the UK to send in ITS fighters is
>>well worth the risk fi there is 18i in Karelia.  I stand to loose, but not
>>by much.  I should at least take out everything BUT those fighters.
>>
>>But, this is not new to many players.  WHAT IS NEW is having Japan play
>>"clean-up" for me, and keep Russia from reinforcing itself(or the UK)from
>>the East.  I have seen games where Russia guesses wrong, and dies by turn 3 or
>>4!  IF they guess right, they still(!) loose badly, and are due to loose from 
>>Japan two turns earlier(round 6 or 7).
>>Looks like Germany HAS delayed the Allies long enough!
>>:)
> 
> Yes but you now say you won't attack.  Your previous plan left one unit
> in the Caucuses, which the British just take back so the Japanese are
> unable to help you.  I have seen games where Russia rolls horribly and
> dies on turn 2, I do not see much guessing  the game(other than guessing
> how the dice will be rolled).  Is there much guessing in chess (other
> than what hand hold the white pawn)?

I EXPLAINED.  They LOOSE India!  They cannot afford takng back Karelia, which I
have 2 a and 2i in Range to take right back!  
THey would be stupid to take it back.  Remember...  you have to TAKE it back.
if it is blank, it is still mine! 


you forget!  THEY GO BEFORE I DO!  I HAVE THE OPTION OF WHAT TO DO!
There is no guess-work!  At worst, they are crippled, at best, they loose
on turn 2 or 3. Seems like an acceptable risk!
You confuse me with tyour logic that unless I have a 100% chance of creaming
you, then I shouldn't take the chance!  Leaving Russia with NO pieces other
than 2f is great! they cannot even take Ukraine, which has NOTHING in it!


Joe
P.S. Due to the length of this psot, I will submit my two plans in their
entirety shortly. KEEP IN MIND THAT EACH PLAN HAS SEVERAL VIARIANTS(small ones)
I will attempt to EVEN add those.

AFTER you do your plan, I will then rebutt with apan's, and we shall see how
you survive a full round or two, with every country playing.
(we will play a game, but not with dice, but with probabilities)

Does this sound acceptable?  I would like to show you whait looks like after one
round(the state of the world).

IF I had more time, we could play a game.  I guarantee I would if not win, I
would make life very nasty for you.  
P.S.S. This is the same two plans that were used when the Axis won at the last
con I played.  My plan of mauling Karelia was favored.  Axis won the last
game in the tourney, no less!(no attack option used)
:)
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