From: cshi@cs.ulowell.edu (Chunde Shi)
Subject: Re: China(was More than 50% support TI)
Organization: University of Massachusetts at Lowell Computer Science
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1993 03:12:33 GMT

In article <liqiang.726187604@kramden> liqiang@kramden.nyu.edu (Li) writes:
>nlu@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu) writes:
>
>>In article <C0C2n9.Lq@ulowell.ulowell.edu> cshi@cs.ulowell.edu (Chunde Shi) writes:
>
>>>One of my major was economic geography. Please trust me on those, they are
>>>facts and  can be easily verified. Unfortunately I do not have figure handy.
>>>If you realy have doubt and curious enough, any extensive geography book or
>>>economic statistics book will help.
>
>
>A good reference would be "The Statistical Yearbook of China". It is published
>yearly by China's National Statistical Bureau and should be retained in the
>reference section of every business school's library. This book contains
>official data of all facets of the mainland's economy and is oft-quoted
>by economists. I assume one can find other countries' yearbooks for comparisons.
>
>As far as my memory can serve me, the total yearly grain output of the mainland
>is a little over 810 billion jin (1 lb = .918 jin) - check the most recent
>yearbook for more digits. This figure has been claimed by the mainland
>gvmnt for yrs to be No. 1 in the world and I have not heard of any disputes 
>on that - what the hell, we have a population 5 times as big as that of the
>US.
>
>The greatest achievement of the mainland's economy has been feeding
>22% of world's population with only 7% of world's cultivable lands. Thus
>it is not a surprise that China's grain output per unit land is way higher
>than most countries (esp the US and Canada where mechanization is
>prevalent and does not ensure high yield per unit land - since they
>have a surplus amount of land). This is achieved by intensive farming
>and double(or even triple)-harvesting but I disagree with Chunde Shi that
>double-harvesting demonstrates the fertility of China's land. Many people 
>have argued that double-harvesting does harm to land's fertility and I think
>while American and Canadian farmers can practise double-harvesting, they have
>never thought about it.
>
>
>>Then please explain why there were so many famines in Chinese history.  You
>>mentioned "lack of records" in the west, but that is definitely false.  There
>>have always been extensive historical records of history since Greco-Roman
>>times in western Europe.
>
>>It cannot be just the effect of warfare, since there was as much, if not more,
>>warfare during historical times in western Europe than in China.  Technological
>>deficiencies?  No, until the Ming Dynasty at least the Chinese were more
>>advanced in farm technology.
>
>
>Isn't it true that the most notorious famines occurred during periods of 
>turmoil? Even if the Chinese lands may not be as fertile (let's take into
>account the climate factor here) as the Ukrainian Plains,
>this factor alone cannot cause a ubiguitous famine. The truth is
>ancient Chinese wars were exceedingly destructive (maybe Western European
>wars were no less destructive, but that's irrelavent here).
>
>For example, right before the An-Shi Turmoil in Tang Dynasty, Chang'an and
>Luo'yang (and just anywhere else in China proper) were very rich but after the 
>8-year turmoil, the total population dropped from 55 million to 8 million
>and residents (including many officials) of the two capitals were wearing 
>paper instead of clothes!
>
>A counter-example is the early Tang era. Li Shimin took the throne in
>626. In 627, there was a terrible disaster in Central China caused by swarms of
>locusts(?) and in the following year, there was the flooding. During these yrs,
>Li Shimin was able to execute excellent political management (Tang was
>small then but practically at peace) and avoid a nationwide famine. In 629, the
>harvest was tremendous (eventually) and the country went on to survive
>and became a regional power.
>
>My point is most ancient Chinese famines were caused by warfare. Advance
>farming tech (mentioned by Nelson Lu) and good political management in
>peaceful times can well offset the possible non-productivity of the Chinese
>soil - that is, if you can argue about it at all. Usu the gvmnt stores
>surplus food during peaceful times to provide against military actions
>and unfavorable harvests. At war times, however, with no gvnmt support,
>a single natural disaster can hit the country real bad. 
>
>Remember the Great Leap Forward in 1958 and the then prevalent movements
>nationwide of free food, drinks, etc? This was not a communist invention.
>Exactly the same thing happened in Sui Dynasty. When Sui was at her climax,
>Yang Guang, the 2nd emperor, used to set up restaurants from Luo'yang all
>the way to Chang'an to offer free(!) foods and drinks to passers-by. It is
>ironic that only a few years later, starving rebels were hunting him down
>all around the country.
>
>
>>From what I've seen, famines in Chinese history mostly came from wars and/or
>>natural disasters, but natural disasters must still be accounted for while
>>calculating the fertility of the lands.  For example, how many floods the
>>extent of the recent one in China have you seen, in our lifetime, in the
>>United States or Europe?  The Yellow River itself is a natural disaster always
>>waiting to happen.
>
>
>Agreed. Natural disasters should be accounted for.
>
>I suspect the Yellow River was a well-behaved river in ancient times. The
>current flood peril has been due to unrelenting destruction of the trees that
>used to forest the now Huangtu Plateau, isn't that so? Thus the fact
>that the US and Europe have seen fewer and less severe floods is due
>to their extensive forestry which China traditionally (not now unfortunately)
>also enjoyed.
Yellow plateau started defrosetation after Dang Dunasty.
Europe did not have as warm climate during summer time. approprate temeratture
is major factor in food production.
Yellow river has  been much better managed after 1949.
>
>
>>This is *not* a glorification of western farming.  If it were, I would be
>>saying that western farms are more productive *despite* being less fertile,
>>which is not the case.  Until you can come up with the data, I won't believe
>>that the Northern China Plains are more fertile than the Great Plains or the
>>Ukrainian Plains.
>
>With the continued practice of intensive farming, the fertility of
>not just the Northern China Plains but plains of the whole China could
>become more doubtful. 
It has been mentained by organic fetilizer.
>
>- Li, Qiang