From: mam@jcnpc.cmhnet.org (Mike A. McAngus)
Subject: Re: Challenge to Agnostics
Organization: Homebrew Virtual Reality Labs
X-Newsreader: TIN [version 1.1 PL6]
Date: Wed, 23 Dec 1992 02:55:07 GMT

The One and Only (jcopelan@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu) wrote:
: In article <ednclark.724898160@kraken> ednclark@kraken.itc.gu.edu.au (Jeffrey
 Clark) writes:
: >
: >Yes, knowledge is never absolute, it just has a probability of truth to the
: >owner of the knowledge. I am 100% sure of my own existence, and that other
: >than that and this beleif no other thing can be 100% certain. Just for the
: >record here is a run-down of my continuum:
: >
: >Prob.   Beleif
: >
: >100     My own Existence
: >100     Nothing else is 100% certain
: >99.9999 I have sight, hearing, smell, touch and taste available.
: >99.999  That my senses reasonably accurately relate to me the environment
: >99.999  The existence of my body, friends, car, house, and everywhere I've
: >        been. Insert theory of probability and theory of gravity here.
: >99.99   That Adolf Hitler existed, New York exists, and other things I see
: >        in reliable texts and communication mediums. You could probably
: >  insert the theory of evolution about here.
: >99.9    That St Paul existed, William shakespeare and those things which are
: >  pretty well accepted but minor bits of doubt hang if only due to
: >  long periods of time between now and then.
: >99      The existence of Jesus.
: >50      That Jesus did actually think he was the son of a god, and did most
: >        of the things attributed in the bible.
: >0.0001  That Jesus did any form of miracle, such as walk on water, resurrect
: >        Lazarus, or turn water into wine etc etc.
: >0.0001  That there is some form of deity that magically can do amazing
: >        things that we should worry about (ie either worship or defend
: >  against).
: >10^-10  That the judeo-christian God exists, and that Jesus is the way to
: >        heaven, and that a God would give a shit what we think of
: >  hime/her/they/it.
: >
:
: What about black holes, atoms, gravity, quarks?
:

I think it's unfair to require Jeff to assign probabilities to everything in 
the world.

: What is your basis for assigning 100% probability to the statement that
: nothing else is 100% certain?

He did say these were his beliefs.  If they are his then he has the right to 
assign the values with which he is most comfortable.  For instance, I assign a 
probability of only 40% to the existence of Jesus.

:
: At what point does a probability become so close to 100% or 0% as to be of
: no real or practical difference? For example:
:
: What is the difference between the world we live in and a world without God?
:
: or
:
: What is the difference between the world we live in and a world with black
: holes?

The difference between the world we live in and a world with black holes is 
infinite in my opinion, because the world we live in could not exist anywhere 
near a black hole without an amazing advance in technology
-- 
Mike McAngus 			 | Let the raucous sleigh bells ringle   
(mam@jcnpc.cmhnet.org)		 | Hail our dear old fried Chris Kringle |Tom
The Truth is still the Truth	 | Driving his reindeer across the sky   |Lehrer
Even if you choose to ignore it. | Don't stand underneath when they fly by. 
Xref: sparky alt.atheism:24825 talk.religion.misc:25016