From: casper@vxcrna.cern.ch (CASPER,DAVI./PPE)
Subject: Re: Third Reich Glitch???????
News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41    
Organization: European Organization for Nuclear Research, CERN
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1992 14:05:00 GMT

In article <1992Aug12.140804.3393@desire.wright.edu>, demon@desire.wright.edu (Stupendous Man) writes...


[ query concerning Allied invasion of Portugal in Third Reich, suggesting it is
a game-winning strategy for the Allies ]

[ I more or less pooh-poohed the idea ... ]

>	Amateurs! :)

Ahem.  Man, I labored through the dark days of the First Edition... I don't have
to stand for this!

>	When you invade Portugal, send a 5-6 north to secure a port or two. 
>Spain pretty much always uses the cluster defense.  Otherwise invade Spain and
>take out Madrid.

Actually, after pushing around some pieces last night, I have found several
Spanish set-ups which give the Allies no chance at a 2-1 on Madrid in the first
turn they declare war.  And this is assuming the entire British and American
force pools are available, and both airborne are in Gibraltar.  If the German
takes the sensible precaution of putting an armor unit on the Franco-Spanish
border when he sees the whole Allied army, navy, and air force head south, the
Spaniards can even make it tough to take one of the northern ports.

So, either you invade Portugal only and attack Spain the next turn, or you
settle for a two turn (at least) Spanish campaign and allow the Germans to
intervene.

>> you will not have a lot of air available because of lack of bases and the
>> distance from England.

>	Lisbon, Gibraltar, a northern port or two.

Lisbon can hold 1 unit, or two if you have an airbase unbuilt.  Airbases can't
be SRed into Portugal.  Supply difficulties for the airbase in Lisbon may also
arise (more below).  Gibraltar is not in range of Madrid.  If you have already
invaded Spain the turn before to get that northern port, then you will face
Axis air as well.

>>  On the turn after invading Portugal, you will have at most 5 ground
>> units and perhaps one air unit. This is not enough to overrun Spain.

> Another invasion, plus the smart player already has a Spanish port
> plus Gibraltar.  Usually the Bealerics also.

Again, if you attack Spain on the same turn as Portugal, you will probably not
conquer it.  If you do Portugal alone, then you can probably get Spain on the
next turn, but it will take a lot of units.  Any units which leave the
bridgehead can be put out of supply by putting the Spanish armor in Vigo. 
Since they exploited, they will still be able to move, but not exploit, the
following turn.  Unless the Allies commit every armor unit, Spain might still
survive if the Allies are even a little careless.  And now you have spent two
turns. 

>	Germany usually isn't in a position to intervene meaningfully.  The
>more troops they pour in, the bigger bag to trap with an invasion in France to
>cut them off.

You have made two mistakes which are common in doing 3R analysis...assuming
your opponent will do what you want, and assuming your army can be everywhere
at once.  On one hand, this push into Spain is supposed to be fatal for
Germany, on the other hand you postulate he will do nothing to oppose it.  And
you have the entire Allied army invading Spain one turn and then landing in
France the next.  A halfway commitment (leaving enough forces behind to mount a 
serious invasion of France) is not likely to be much more successful, and then
you will be paying for offensives on two fronts.

>> When you fianlly do manage to take out Spain, what have you really achieved? 

>	25 BRPs.  Taken out axis hopes of Spanish minor ally.  You have land
>forces on the continent in strength.

30 actually, minus the 10 for the DoW and 60 for two offensives each by Britain
and America (which I suppose you might have spent anyway), minus losses.  By
this stage in the game, I don't think the Spanish minor ally is a real concern
either.  Yes, you have land forces on the continent in strength, but they were
closer to Berlin when they were in England. 

>	German defense of France is considerably easier with a protected (i.e.
>neutral) Spanish border.  In addition, with more areas to cover the German
>defenses are eithe weakened in other parts of France or on the eastern front. 
>A good thing either way.  (Unless Russia is a separate player :)

Actually, if the Allies get ashore (in France) in force, I find the Germans
have to pretty much abandon the Western half of France anyhow.  The front
becomes too long and too prone to being cut off.  The Spanish border is pretty
irrelevant then.  On the other hand the Pyrenees make a good place to delay the
Allies for a turn or two.  All these one or two turn delays add up.

>	By demonstrating your willingness to take out neutrals, the axis player
>must now watch previously safe areas.  If you invaded Spain, what about Turkey? 
>Yugoslavia?  Etc.

If you are in a position to take out Spain and do it, you will probably get
Turkey as a minor ally without invading it.  An Allied invasion of Turkey is
pretty stupid, if you ask me.  Its about the only place you can attack which
is farther from Berlin than Portugal too...  A German who thinks Yugoslavia is
safe without being defended is a fool.  

>	Even if you simply leave 3-4s on the border and sit on Spain you are
>forcing the German player to defend southern France.  Hopefully he tromps all
>over Vichy in the process, negating any possible Vichy activation.

If you waste two or more turns worth of activity by most of your army just to
accomplish this, it seems like a gift to the Germans.  With all their shore
bombardment, air, paratroops, and armor, I just don't find getting ashore
somewhere and staying ashore is such a problem, for the Allies, once you have
assembled the forces.

Again, at this stage, Vichy activation is pretty unlikely, too.  More likely,
you will have to go through them and end up giving their units to the Krauts.

>> The sole [example where this strategy might be worth it]
>> exceptions might be if Russia and/or Britain are out of the war and the 
>> Germans have a vast number of units in France.

>	That's precisely the situation where I would NOT invade Iberia.  Much
>better to invade Africa in that scenario.

Well, we don't seem to agree on much, do we?  If Russia is out of the war and
you have to invade Africa to get things going in the Med, I would say it is
time to concede.  What good does invading Africa do?  Ditto if Britain is out
of the war.  In that case, you need a Western front port, and an area to build
up in.  The Iberian cul-de-sac seems ideal. 

>> If you are really determined to go through Spain, I'd recommend DoWing Spain
>> and Portugal on the same turn, and hitting Spain from all three directions at
>> once (Gibraltar, the Med, and Portugal), without giving the Germans a chance to
>> react.  With both Allied airborne in Gibraltar and every Allied armor committed,
>> it might fall in one turn.  If it did, you could then SR up to the (presumably
>> ungarrisoned) French border the same turn.  Even then, you are a long way from
>> your objective.

>	Now you're getting the picture.  Portugal falls no matter what.  The
>armor always races for Madrid.

But as I say, in this case you take a big 1-1 on Madrid if the Spanish set-up
properly, or else face a longer campaign.

I will admit that doing Iberia on a double turn could be a good idea, however.



Dave

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