From: S_TITZ@iravcl.ira.uka.de (Olaf Titz)
Subject: Re: Shock wave rider
Followup-To: rec.arts.sf.written
Summary: Critical light on Brunner's predictions
Keywords: predictions, shockwave rider
Organization: Fachschaft Informatik, Uni Karlsruhe
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 1992 15:42:42 GMT
X-News-Reader: VMS NEWS 1.23

[I think this is best suited for rec.arts.sf.written - followups
redirected] 

In <1992Sep15.115913.17578@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU> lfoard@Turing.ORG
writes in response to a thread concerning Nostradamus' alleged
prediction of the downfall of Communism:

>  It would be interesting to compare astrological, etc. predictions with
>  those of decent science fiction. I recently read Shock wave rider written
>  in 1974, it refered to events that happened between 1974 and 1992, however
>  they where close enough to the truth that I kept forgeting it was written
>  before they happened.

(ObAstrology: Taken for words, Nostradamus' 'predictions' are simply
crap. Taken for interpretation, you can interpret anything *into*
them.)

Now let me play the Devil's Advocate against you and Brunner.

>  For example:
>   The disarmament treaty of 1989 ends the cold war in the book...

\sarcasm
And you have always thought, are thinking and will be always thinking
that the cold war is a Law of Nature and its been ending a technical
impossibility? That Lenin-style Communism will rule half of the world
for at least the next two hundred years? That a disarmament treaty
contradicts the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics?
\endsarcasm

Sure, I have always thought that the cold war has to be put to an end.
Not tomorrow perhaps (if you asked me in 1986) but that it will happen
sometimes, for sure. (An aside: think of German re-unification [an
un-beautiful word :-)] and how many times it has been 'proven'
impossible. All those worst-case predictors have been plain wrong
based on underestimating the power of a revolution which *is* possible
now and will be possible as long as there are thinking human beings.)

Maybe Brunner was influenced by the flower-power-age-of-aquarius-hippie
thinking that the age of eternal peace was close to come, in 1974. A
possibility, too.

>   Fetal tissue transplants are an issue.

An issue have they been back in the 70's, given that scientists could
imagine the possibility. Nothing has been *discovered* between 1974
and 1992 that makes it possible where it hasn't been possible before.
(Note: Discovered, not invented. That a kidney transplant could be
possible could have been written by Jules Verne, or perhaps earlier.
It has been made possible by the *invention* of anti-rejection drugs.)
Blood transfusions could NOT be imagined in the Middle Ages, not
knowing about the blood circulation.
Stories about, say, personal computers by E.A.Poe [I know he did not
write SF but is an excellent author and I take him as an example of
19th century writing] would be a different issue (best with detailed
technical descriptions - Brunner is somewhat vague when it comes to
the fine points of technology.)

>   Laser printers now exist (did they in 1974?)

The technology behind laser printers is Xerox photocopying, invented
in the 1930's and come into widespread use during 60's/70's, combined
with a straightforward scheme for generating pictures with a laser
beam. (Dot matrix printers have long been around.) BUT concerning
60's/70's style SF writing it isn't hard to imagine that one could
invent the notion of 'laser printers' just from scratch without
precise technical imagination of how it works. (Everything equipped
with a laser sounds good. Companies sell LED matrix printers without
an actual laser beam as 'LED laser printers'.)

>   The net in the book sounds very much like the internet of today. 

It has already been pointed out (I can't remember where) that the ARPA
project which laid the ground for Internet actually preceded /The
Shockwave Rider/, but I doubt if Brunner knew about it. But given the
60's predictions of the future widespread use of computers, combined
with the most advanced and easily imaginable applications of then,
i.e. databases for Government authorities and banks, it is not hard to
conclude a big computer system spread across the country with access
from everywhere (to the extent described in the book that is NOT yet
achieved).

Altera pars audiatur: It is not exactly a big computer-utility style
mainframe that gets hacked in the novel but a big network consisting
of smaller machines, which achieves its effect only by cooperating
(this is important as the power of the network is not exactly just the
power of the machines added.) The motion towards small machines (are
there real personal computers? I don't remember) and more important,
networks is clearly stated. (But, I know, there *have* been the first
desktop PC-predecessors in 1974.)

>   etc.

Just to take another example of something *not* yet being invented: 

That dance where the dancers generate the music themselves (supposedly
via a computer controlling the noise equipment). As far as I know, no
such thing exists by mid-1992. But surely we all can imagine that
someone in the near future is able to build such a device.

And for an even more drastic prediction: SURELY there will be a major
earthquake in California SOMETIMES in the future...

>  Now compare this to the psychics who wrote back in 1974...

Now enough for the Brunner-bashing (do not misunderstand me, I like
the book!!).
Has anyone to add comments?

MfG,
        Olaf
-- 
    o     Olaf Titz - comp.sc.student - univ of karlsruhe - germany
 _ /<_    s_titz@iravcl.ira.uka.de - uknf@dkauni2.bitnet - praetorius@irc
(_)>(_)   +49-721-60439 - did i forget something?
OS/360 devotes 26 bytes of the permanently resident date-turnover routine
 to the proper handling of Dec.31 on leap years. That might have been
 left to the operator. - Fred Brooks (1975)