From: ceb@dbrus.Unify.Com (Caroline E. Bryan)
Subject: Re: Poll shows GOP convention giving Bush a bounce
Organization: /usr/lib/news/organization
Date: Fri, 21 Aug 92 20:29:54 GMT

In article <20AUG199220061757@gergo.tamu.edu> dave@gergo.tamu.edu (Dave Martin) writes:
>In article <l981hbINNg3b@roundup.crhc.uiuc.edu>, sunder@altair.crhc.uiuc.edu (Srinivas Sunder) writes...
>>        The Chronicle/Hotline poll of 2,000 registered voters shows Bush's
>>favorable rating increased as the convention progressed, from 41 percent
>>to 45 percent, while his unfavorable rating dropped from 51 percent to
>>46 percent.
>
>Yes, but if I'm not mistaken, the poll was only of registered voters in the
>Houston area, where the convention is currently taking place. That doesn't
>count as an indicator of increased support nationwide. 

This morning's NPR report said that several polls were done earlier today
(no, that doesn't mean they were rousting people out of bed at 4 AM, that
means I must be writing from the West Coast or farther west) showed that ...

Oh, let me give this the proper build-up.  After the Dem convention, Clinton
quickly pulled ahead of Bush 20 to 30+% in the polls.  The Republicans
claimed that this was ALL post-convention bounce, and that when they had
*their* convention, the numbers would reverse, i.e., that Bush would pull
ahead of Clinton by 20 to 30+%.  The Dems claimed that not all of it was
post-convention bounce and that after the Republican convention, Clinton
would still be ahead of Bush by 10-15%.  (The long-memoried might remember
a post about this; it was from me.)

Now we have the proof of the pudding.  The polls done this morning show that
Bush's numbers have indeed improved, just like *both* parties predicted.
But Bush is not ahead of Clinton by 20 to 30% like the Republicans predicted;
Bush is not ahead by 2 to 3%; Bush is not ahead by 0.002 to 0.003%.  Clinton
is ahead, still, and by 9 to 11%, depending on the poll.  This is the low
end of what the Democratic party predicted, but it's still in the ballpark.

Yesterday afternoon NPR discussed several methods used over the years to try
to predict the winner of our presidential races, both "scientific" and silly
(one was that in all but 2 races, the taller man won; it was pointed out that
while Bush is 6'2", Clinton is 6'2 1/2").  One method, NPR said, has been
shown to be accurate within 1 percentage point to predict the percentage of
the popular vote an incumbent gets.  Every president since the first time
polls were used to gauge his approval rating over the length of his term in
office received the same percentage of the popular vote, *within 1%*, as his
average approval rating over his entire previous term.  The reporter gave
several examples including Reagan's 2nd election and Jimmy Carter's losing
percentage; then pointed out that Bush's average approval rating over his
term, including the 92% approval rating just after Desert Storm, is 40%.  Of
course there are a few more months to go, but the reporter even pointed out
that his then current approval rating is < 40%, so Bush has to get real pop-
ular real fast if the method is a true predictor of the vote.

Local news:  the Yolo County (CA) Democratic campaign office has seen Repub-
licans coming in every day starting this past Tuesday, disgusted with the
speeches they've heard at their convention, asking what Clinton's plans
*really* are and re-registering to vote as Democrats.  This is really some-
thing considering that Yolo County (I've been told) is traditionally Repub-
lican.


Carrie		ceb@rechenau.unify.com	x6244
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