From: sip1@ellis.uchicago.edu (Timothy F. Sipples)
Subject: OS/2 Future Trends and Directions
Followup-To: comp.os.os2.advocacy
Reply-To: sip1@midway.uchicago.edu
Organization: Dept. of Econ., Univ. of Chicago
Date: Sat, 26 Sep 1992 01:28:11 GMT
Status: RO

Today IBM Chicago held its monthly OS/2 User's Group meeting.  This
month's meeting was devoted, in large part, to a presentation by two
OS/2 experts from Austin (mainly delivered by Don Crabtree).

I thought I'd post a report on that meeting and what these two
presented.  Disclaimers: these aren't official IBM pronouncements, all
information is subject to change, etc., etc.  A lot was covered, so
I'm bound to make some mistakes.  Also, I am only familiar with half
the acronyms, so bear with me.  :-)

Multimedia was largely glossed over in this presentation (since it
will be the exclusive focus of an upcoming meeting), so I do not
mention anything about MMPM/2 and other multimedia topics here.

As of approximately two weeks ago, 1.4 million copies of OS/2 2.0 had
left the factories, excluding internal copies, copies supplied to
ISVs, promotional copies, and electronically delivered copies.  IBM
estimates that one million OS/2 2.0 users are now out there.

Among notable products, WordPerfect 6.0 for OS/2 is set for an early
first quarter 1993 release if all goes well.  Hopes are still alive
for a year end release, but the date could slip.

A 32-bit Novell NetWare Server for OS/2 2.0 is expected at about the
same time.

The Developer's CD-ROM is now available.  It contains full online
programming and redbook documentation, Book Reader/2, beta versions of
development tools (Workframe/2), OS/2 2.01 (beta, i.e. the Win-OS/2
3.1 update, etc.), LAN Server 3.0 beta, TCP/IP beta, C++ beta, and
much more.  The cost is approximately $30.  I'll post details on how
to obtain this CD-ROM in the near future in comp.os.os2.programmer.
This product is part of the "new IBM," you might say: six weeks from
conception to delivery.  (Left unsaid was that it was a response to
Microsoft's NT CD-ROM.  It was also a one-up on them; these are beta,
not "pre-beta" tools, there's a lot more on there in many ways, and it
comes at a third the price.)  IBM expects they'll have a second CD-ROM
release in mid October -- a quick follow-on indeed.

Now, where is OS/2 headed?

By year end the following enhancements will be in place [meaning some
will obviously be delivered well before December 31]:

** LAN Server 3.0.  It will contain multiprocessing (asymmetric) and
peer-to-peer features, among other things.
** 32-bit graphics engine. (*)
** SuperVGA drivers ("...representing 80 to 90 percent of the
marketplace...") (*)
** Reduced memory requirements.  A standalone OS/2 2.0 station which
now requires 4.5 MB will be trimmed by one megabyte to 3.5 MB, i.e.
OS/2 2.0 will really fit in 4 MB. (*)
** Improved performance (in addition to the RAM diet). (*)
** Windows enhancements (i.e. Win-OS/2 3.1 with TrueType, multimedia
extensions, bitmaps, and applets). (*)
** Systems management enhancements.  Specifically, remote network
installation and remote network maintenance will be improved and will
include more than LAN Server networks.
** LAN transport enhancements (i.e. NTS/2).  NTS/2 contains additional
protocol stacks (Appletalk (!), NetBIOS/BEUI, IPX, DECNet, OSI, SNA, etc.)
All you need is a NDIS driver to run the whole show.  NTS/2 can be
ordered separately and will be included at no extra charge in such
products as LAN Server, TCP/IP (presumably), and other network-related
add-ons.
** First DCE toolkit.  Programmers will be able to take advantage of
DCE/RPC.

The (*) items will be delivered widely, electronically (through such
facilities as Internet ftp), as free updates.  (Systems management
enhancements will be enabled in the base product, but they aren't
useful without a network requester and a server.)

In 1993 ("OS/2 2.x"):

** Win32/Win32s API compatibility.  This was a surprise, frankly.  But
it was there on the overhead transparency.

[Just to editorialize, this could cut both ways.  On the one hand OS/2
is essentially remaining a superset of Windows "forever," i.e. if you
have OS/2 you can always run more.  Meaning it is more attractive for
consumers.  On the other hand you might ask whether developers should
write for the OS/2 API.  But, then again, developers don't dictate OS
markets, consumers do.  If OS/2 is more popular, and, other things
being equal, OS/2 users prefer native OS/2 applications over Win32
applications, then developers with native OS/2 versions will have an
advantage.  What would be truly bizarre (devious?) is if IBM
implemented the Win32 API before Microsoft did, which is certainly
possible with these new, modern OSes given that the API is rigidly
defined.  BUT I DIGRESS.]

** Security.  B2 level features will be incorporated; C2 certifiable.
Read on.
** Network thresholds enabled.  Several customers expressed the need
for reducing network traffic, and IBM is introducing this facility
where you can, for example, set a spool threshold such that output for
the printer won't cross the network until enough bytes have been
spooled.  At least, that's what I think they meant.
** Distributed PM and X client.  Meaning your PM applications can
execute on another machine across the network and display on your
local machine, even a machine running X.  (The reverse is already
possible with Unix workstations, i.e. an X program executing on a Unix
workstation can display on the OS/2 PC with TCP/IP plus the X server.)
I should note at this point that the presenters pointed out that DOS
will live into the late 90s, and that they plan on offering a version
of the Workplace Shell for DOS.  A WPS equipped DOS workstation could
also participate in this fashion, with Distributed/PM, which would
make a lot of 8088 and 80286 machines more useful.  They admitted,
however, that the performance would be less than stellar, simply
because these machines are slow.  But they would be put to good use.
** Pen/PM, i.e. support for pen input devices and paradigms.
** "Generic Client" support, meaning that network requesters from
multiple vendors will ship in one package, and you just select which
one(s) you want on installation.  This package will be open to all
network suppliers.

In 1993 to 1994 ("OS/2 3.x"):

** DCE/RPC.  This offering will solidify and expand across all IBM
platforms in this time frame.
** POSIX compliance.
** C2 certification granted.  (It takes approximately 12 months, and
software is certified in combination with hardware.)
** Symmetric multiprocessing (SMP).
** Portability, based on the OSF/Mach 3.0 kernel.

IBM should have a demonstration at Comdex/Fall of OS/2 running atop
the OSF/Mach 3.0 kernel, a parallel database demonstration, and more.

[The presenter noted that the OSF/Mach 3.0 kernel has advantages over
the NT kernel, specifically, as an example, in I/O handling.]

The missions given to Taligent and Kaleida were also discussed.  In a
nutshell, Taligent's mission is to borrow from the best of both IBM
and Apple, create standards and enhancements, and license back
technologies to the parent companies.  Since IBM and Apple together
control over 50% of the market in personal computers, they hope to
promulgate standards more effectively in tandem.  OS/2 and AIX will
continue to evolve (as will DOS, for that matter, with the
aforementioned WPS version).  (It was left unsaid, but OS/2 will be
the "mainstream" operating system while AIX will be targeted at
markets where something more than POSIX compliance is demanded; I
suspect there will be a lot of "cross polination" here, but that the
two OS tracks will merge only as fast as the market dictates.)
Taligent may itself offer its own operating system in the distant (in
industry terms) future, but it was characterized as more of a niche,
high end product rather than as a mass market item.

Kaleida's mission is similar, namely to choose the best technologies
from the parent companies, to standardize and enhance them, and to
license them back to the parents (and promulgate them throughout the
industry).  However, it was admitted that Kaleida's mission will be
much more difficult.

Incidently, the naming of Pink was explained.  When IBM and Apple met,
the Apple representatives brought several 3x5 index cards, with
components of their key technologies written on each card.  These
cards were tacked onto a bulletin board and were used in the
negotiations.  The cards describing features found in OBS (Object
Based System, the Apple follow-on to Macintosh System 7) were pink.
OBS was then referred to as Pink, and the name stuck.  Pink is but one
set of technologies from which Taligent will draw in creating a new
set of standards for a new, object-oriented operating system.

I've been to a couple of these Chicago meetings now, and this meeting
had its share of chuckles (mainly arising out of questions from the
audience).  For example, one person asked whether "reduced
requirements" meant that OS/2 2.0 would now operate on 80286 machines.
(Answer: no, OS/2 1.3 remains the 80286 OS/2 offering.)  Another asked
whether 8088 and 80286 machines could be hooked up to AS/400
minicomputers to "boost" its processing power (by tying the machines
together with DCE/RPC).  (Answer: not really.)  IBM customers, to some
degree, remain a conservative, traditional group.  Which is terrific,
in some respects.  But when was the 80386 introduced?  1985?  Those
8088 machines just can't be obsolete.  :-)

Bundling was discussed.  According to the presenter, OS/2 2.0 is now
bundled with all IBM 386SX or better PS/2s, some PS/1s, and select
Dell systems.  (On other Dell systems it will be preloaded at the
customer's request.)  IBM is currently negotiating with nine other
vendors who wish to bundle OS/2 2.0 with their systems.  Also, hard
drive manufacturers have approached IBM with interest in selling hard
drives with OS/2 2.0 preloaded.  The presenter also expects you'll see
software bundling (e.g. systems bundled with, say, OS/2 2.0 and Lotus
1-2-3/G).

So, that's where OS/2 is heading, in summary, according to the
presentation.

Please follow up to comp.os.os2.advocacy.

-- 
Timothy F. Sipples      | The OS/2 FREQ. ASKED QUESTIONS LIST is avail. from
sip1@ellis.uchicago.edu | 128.123.35.151, anonymous ftp, in /pub/os2/all/faq.
Dept. of Econ., Univ.   | Or from LISTSERV@BLEKUL11.BITNET (send "HELP").
of Chicago, 60637       | Family Values Means a Job


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