From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 1992 21:55:58 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 321, 11/16/92
10.7 FLUX=136.7  90-AVG=124        SSN=142      BKI=3232 1222  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B7.5     FLU1=4.9E+05  FLU10=9.2E+03  PKI=3122 2222  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=028,010,021,017,008,013,013,018   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.1   @ 1744UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.3   @ 0006UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2030UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1845UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1640UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 0304UT   BOUTF-MIN=55394NT @ 1920UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1953UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 0003UT  G7-AVG=+076,+031,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 2046UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-017NT@ 0250UT  G6-AVG=+093,-008,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,155,155;SESC:145,150,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,007/010,010,010
    KFCST=2222 3222 2222 3222  27DAY-AP=009,006   27DAY-KP=4311 2212 1221 1223
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0709-0803UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. New Region 7345 (S23E72)
       produced several subflares two of which reached C-class. This
       Region is the return of old 7321 which was responsible for high
       levels of activity last rotation. A loop prominence system
       occurred in the Region midway through the period. An active
       surge Region was observed on the east limb near S03 during the
       second half of the period. The surging extended to 0.02 Solar
       radii. No significant changes were observed in the remaining
       Regions.  Intense Ca XV limb emissions were observed in
       conjunction with the return of this old region.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7345 is expected to produce C-class
       flares and may produce isolated M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 17 nov-19 nov

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 nov-19 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/05/05
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected over the next three days.
       Propagation should continue normal over all regions.  There is
       a chance of daytime SWF activity due to minor solar flares from
       new Region 7345.  Some of the observed SWFs could be rather
       long in duration should minor M-class flares erupt.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7334  N12W78  215  0040 CRO  06  003 BETA
7335  S18W68  205  0340 EKO  11  006 BETA
7337  N07E01  136  0070 CAO  05  006 BETA
7340  S09E32  105  0020 BXO  08  007 BETA
7341  S16W24  161  0010 BXO  03  005 BETA
7342  S07E08  129  0050 CAO  05  012 BETA
7344  S14E53  084  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7345  S23E73  064  0240 EAO  13  009 BETA
7346  S04E79  058  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7339  S18W42  179                    PLAGE
7343  N11E25  112                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 NOVEMBER TO 19 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7319 S06   045
7323 S15   016


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
16/ 0636     0855     1108                LDE    C1.8  272
16/ 1332     1428     1508                LDE    C2.9   96
16/B1907             A2210       S04E08   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
67   N42W37 N28W46 N42W62 N47W56  196  ISO   POS   008 10830A
68   N15E47 S10E24 N01E09 N18E43  115  ISO   POS   015 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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