From: harling@miki.pictel.com (Dan Harling)
Subject: Survey impartiality (was Re: Profits to Japan?)
Organization: PictureTel Corporation
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 1992 14:29:26 GMT

In article <2AF94D2A.3410@telly.on.ca> evan@telly.on.ca (Evan Leibovitch) writes:
>For years Consumer Reports has done surveys of owners to determine
>reliability and owner satisfacion. Do you think there's a mystique
>about Japanese cars that causes their owners to report fewer problems?

Frankly, yes.  This is not as unbelievable as it sounds.  A very
thought-provoking discussion on this subject took place in the
rec.autos hierarchy several months ago.  In case you missed it, here is
a recap (as I remember it):

At one time, the fact that Japanese cars are better than cars produced
by U.S. manufacturers (hereafter ethnocentrically refered to as
"American cars") was (arguably) true, when Japanese manufacturers first
started manufacturing cars for the U.S. market, just in time for the
rising oil prices of the early '70s.  While the earliest examples were
berated for quality and durability problems, the newly competing
Japanese manufacturers were in a position to retool as necessary to
improve their designs, and did so.

Meanwhile, the American manufacturers did not respond quickly enough,
and the size-down took place over several years.  Their approach was to
improve existing designs for better fuel efficiency, because they had
too much invested to throw everything out and start afresh.  In the
process, quality and durability suffered, and the market responded
accordingly.  American cars have had the reputation of being "inferior"
to Japanese cars ever since.

Someone raised the question, "Why do people think that Japanese cars
are better than comparable American cars, when (IMHO) they are not?"
This led to speculation as to why, even though American manufacturers
are now producing models that are as small, as inexpensive, and as
fuel-efficient as their Japanese counterparts, if not more so.

One good suggestion was that expectation breeds results.  The scientist
takes what he thinks are the "important" measurements in the lab, and
ignores others.  He does not note the color of the room, or what he ate
for lunch that day, if he is making astronomical observations.  Even if
these factors did have an effect on his observations, since he does not
expect them to, he does not write them down.  Likewise, studies show
that people are more likely to find examples of backmasking in music,
if they are told specifically to look for backmasking.  Those who are
just asked to listen to a song backwards are less likely to notice
anything out of the ordinary.

The point is not that problems with a car are all figments of its
owner's mind, but that one's *reaction* upon discovering a problem
depends on one's expectations:

	If you are told repeatedly (for 20 years) that American cars
	are junk, and you buy one anyway and then discover a problem,
	you conclude that the accusation is true; that American cars
	*are* junk.  When surveyed, such an owner will likely be able
	to recite in detail every problem that he has had with the
	car, however minor.

	If you are told repeatedly (for 20 years) that Japanese cars
	are very good, and you buy one and discover a problem, you
	conclude that your car must be an exception, and tend to
	downplay the problem as an anomaly.  When surveyed, such an
	owner will report generally favorable results, unless the car
	turned out to be an utter disaster.

In this way, it is quite conceivable that opinion polls like those
taken by Consumer Reports could be *highly* affected by prior
expectations on the part of car owners, which are in turn highly
influenced by prevailing popular opinions.  Since the claim that
Japanese cars are better than American cars is both popular and
long-lived, this would tend to be the dominant factor in an opinion
poll.

Note that I am citing this like of reasoning from memory, since the
articles in question are long gone from my system.  Critiques and
flames are welcome, but please don't direct them at the messenger,
whether or not he really does believe the message.
____________________________________________________________________________
Daniel A. Harling                        (harling@pictel.com)
PictureTel Corp.             Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of
Peabody, MA  01960                 PictureTel, but they ought to be!
Newsgroups: rec.autos