From: fester@island.COM (Mike Fester)
Subject: Re: The Northern Islands
Organization: /usr/local/rn/organization
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 15:22:57 GMT

In article <3985@fcs280s.ncifcrf.gov> masuda@fcs280b.ncifcrf.gov (Michiaki Masuda) writes:
>In article <1992Sep23.143645.19298@acuson.com> miklg@acuson.com (Michael Goldman ) writes:
>.....

>>       and many are starting to prefer
>>	returning to the old Stalinist ways.

>   I wonder if so many Russian citizens are really feeling like going back to
>the "good old days."

People will give up an awful lot in return for relative security. Unfortunate,
but true.

>>       In particular, the
>>	Army (the ones with the NUCLEAR WEAPONS) is unhappy with
>>	much of Yeltsin's efforts.  The G7 countries, except for
>>	Japan, are particularly interested in supporting Yeltsin
>>	to avoid a neo-Stalinist backlash and a return to the old
>>	balance of terror and arms race.
>
>   The Army might be unhappy with Yeltsin whatever he does. They might be 
>unhappy because they are not in power. They might be unhappy because efforts
>towards the peaceful era could make them and their nuclear treasure less
>valuable. As you suggested, a (monetary and political) support to Yeltsin 
>might be helpful for him to take strong measures against Stalinists. However,
>it could result in increased hostility and tension between Stalinists and
>Yeltsin. In addition, people who cannot get along with Yeltsin might
>start to feel antipathy against his supporters, which might end up with
>another arms race. 

Russia does not have the economic might to start another arms race. However, 
they DO have the nuclear weapons to remain a very dangerous power in unstable
hands.

>   I agree that humanitarian aids for starving Russian citizens and
>a financial support to jump-start and stabilize their economy are
>something appreciable. However, if it becomes too political, it could be
>a two-edged sword.
>
>>       That the Japanese govt
>>	is yeilding to a few provincial nationalists over some
>>	stupid rocks at the risk of scuttling Yeltsin, bringing
>>	in some Stalin-clone and reviving the threat of NUCLEAR
>>	WAR pleases no one outside Japan.
>
>   A few provincial nationalists who had not been able to even bring flowers
>to their grandparents' tombs on the stupid rocks? A few provincial nationalists 
>who went too close to the stupid rocks by a tiny fishing boat and detained 
>for unreasonably long period? I don't think that the northern islands issue 
>is just a local interest. It's my impression that many Japanese are informed 
>of this issue and more or less interested in it.

It has been my impression that many Japanese are almost completely unaware of
the events surrounding the Soviet-Japanese relations in WWII. I have yet to
meet any Japanese who was aware of the Japanese attacks on Soviet positions
along the Manchurian border. Most of the Japanese I have talked with seem to
become a little less certain of their moral claim to those islands when they
find out about it.
   
As for visiting graves, that hardly relevant now, as the Russians are allowing
that rather freely.
   
>   In order to be diplomatic, it is sometimes important to please, entertain,
>and go along with others even by sacrificing one's own justifiable sentiment.
>In this sense, the Japanese government may not be diplomatic enough.
>However, accusing someone of not giving up or suspending a legitimate claim
>would not be so diplomatic, either.

Surely, the point of this whole debate is how "legitimate" that claim is.

>   True. And I personally think that Japan should consider some sort of 
>significant financial support to Russia soon.
>
>>	Barring any dramatic change in tectonic plate movements
>>	Japan and Russia are going to be neighbors for a loonngg
>>	time.  I would have thought Japan might have adopted the
>>	attitude of "Hey Boris! Here's some money! We'll talk about
>>	the islands when you get back on your feet!"  Such a
>>	magnanimous attitude might have served Japan very well
>>	in the future, including in getting the islands.
>
>   Boris might have been able to hear the words after a tough negotiation.
>Did he just chicken out? Or is it taking long for him to learn how to say,
>"Thank you" in Japanese?

"Thank you" for what?

>>	There was some talk here about Japan's role as "World 
>>	Leader."  If Japanese foreign policy is based on the idea
>>	that (stupid rocks) is more important than (peace and
>>	demilitarization) then we can forget the World Leader
>>	role.

>   Japan would be flattered to hear this. If the dispute over what
>you call "stupid rocks" is such a critical factor for the peace and
>demilitarization, Japan might be able to control the world even without
>being one of the World Leaders.

It is difficult to see how Japan can be flattered by this. Japanese money can
certainly help Russia. Japanese intransigence helps no one, not even themselves,
unless of course, Japan stands to gain by a LESS stable nuclear power in the
region.

Mike
-- 
Disclaimer - I'm only doing what the little voices tell me to do.