From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: AL Rookie of Year Award?
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1992 05:21:08 GMT

In <1992Sep30.024740.13320@panix.com> spira@panix.com (Greg Spira) writes:
>In article <steph.717806198@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu> steph@cs.uiuc.edu (Dale Stephenson) writes:
>>In <1992Sep29.043819.9110@panix.com> Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira:
>>>In <steph.717717072@pegasus.cs.uiuc.edu> (Dale Stephenson) writes:

>>>My argument may be a bit strong, but I don't think its more than that.  I
>>>would definitely think that, say, 24 of the current major league shortstops
>>>would be worth more than the best defensive centerfielder.  Let's take
>>>real life examples.  Does Jeff Blauser, a horrendous defensive shortstop,
>>>have more defensive value than Devon White?

>>If we replaced Blauser with any other shortstop the Braves have, the Brave
>>would give up less hits.  So his net value to the Braves defensively is
>>negative.  Of course, the Braves would make less hits as well.  Normalizing
>>for position, Blauser's offense is almost on a par with Terry Pendleton.

>Okay, but forget offensive value.  Neither of us is interested in that
>right now.  What we're interested in is whether Jeff Blauser's defense
>is more valuable than Devon White's because of the extra difficulty of
>the shortstop position.  Now, I think we both agree that Devon White
>is a much, much, much better centerfielder than Blauser is a shortstop.
>Yes, any other shortstop the Braves would put out there would be more
>valuable defensively.  But I don't think that means Blauser has negative
>defensive value, because you can't compare him just to other shortstops.
>You have to measure his defense in terms of all fielders.

True, but on the other hand, you could argue the exact opposite.
Because a shortstop is more important than a centerfielder, a poor
shortstop hurts the team *more* than a poor centerfielder.

You seem to be arguing that: 
	defensive value = (defensive ability) * (positional value)
There's nothing wrong with that.  But if that defensive ability is
negative, then the defensive value is negative, too.

>Now, I have no way of measuring this, and I presume you don't either.
>We're both just theorizing, really, without any real evidence available.
>If anyone has anyway to measure what we're talking about, speak up now.

>[Aside - Has anyone noticed that McWeekly's idiotic TAG system rates Frank
>Thomas as one of the five most valuable DEFENSIVE players in baseball]

Don't get me started on TAG ratings.  Barry Bonds somehow manages to
miss the top *10* in the league in value, while Eddie "ANY cleanup hitter can 
get 90 RBIs" Murray is FOURTH (!).  Don Mattingly is 6th, while Mark McGwire
isn't on the list.

>To move to an easier example, would you agree that the worst shortstop
>is worth more than the best first baseman? Or a DH?

No.  Just as a player can have a negative value on offense, they can
also have a negative value on defense.  If your scenario *were* true,
then no team would ever put a light-hitting middle infielder on the team.
Because ANYONE could be "the worst shortstop," including Frank Thomas.

>>Blauser has less defensive value to the Braves than does Otis Nixon
>>(especially if Deion isn't available).  However he's more valuable 
>>offensively than Otis.

>What I'm saying, obviously, is that the ability to play shortstop for a
>major league team has a value in and of itself.  Only after you establish
>that value do you add on more value based on exactly how good at that
>position he is.

Only if you play it well.  Otherwise this makes no more sense than
saying the ability to get plate appearances has offensive value in and of 
itself.

>>>Interestingly, White was sent to the minors after posting numbers that
>>>would probably be acceptable for almost any shortstop but were not
>>>acceptable for the best centerfielder.

>>If we're going to normalize offensive numbers by position, why not normalize
>>defensive numbers?

>Well, we should normalize defensive numbers by position.  That's precisely
>what I'm arguing for.  A bad effort at shortstop should be normalized to
>make it worth more than a good effort in centerfield.

Why would you possibly want to rank things this way?  While an average
shortstop might be worth more than a good centerfielder, why would a bad
shortstop be?

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Orioles 1993 World Series Champions
niepornt@phoenix.    | Mike Mussina 1992 AL Cy Young Winner
   princeton.edu     | Roland Hemond: SIGN BARRY BONDS!!!!!!!!
Vote Clinton/Gore '92.   Four more months!	  
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