From: kbanaian@bernard.pitzer.claremont.edu (King Banaian)
Subject: Re: Please help me understand Patton $'s
Organization: Pitzer College
Distribution: na
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1993 20:19:04 GMT

In article <1jp13nINNb8b@alnitak.usc.edu> wlee@alnitak.usc.edu (Wing Lee) writes:
>I also have problems understanding Patton's methods.  In the March 1993
>issue of Fantasy Baseball Magazine, Patton writes:
> 
>   "I look at [Fred] McGriff's five-year salary scan -- $29, $31,
>    $35, $31 and $40 -- and some little voice, be it inspired or
>    foolish, tells me this year he's going to earn $42.  That's the
>    key.  The stats are really irrelevant.  But the software [Patton $
>    On Disk], supplies the stats, based on what it knows about
>    McGriff in the past, on the number of at bats he is going to
>    have in 1993 (which I decide), and on the 1993 N.L. hitters formulas
>    that I've already programmed it with".
>
Y'know, I was in B. Dalton when the shipment of FB arrived, and I made them 
open it up and sell me one.  I went to the coffee shop, opened up, and this 
was about the first quote I saw.  And I'm with this poster -- I don't get it.

>The stats Patton's software projects, based on the expected 1993 value,
>for Fred McGriff are .302 Avg, 52 HR, 129 RBI, 4 SB.
>
>I have a few problems with this:
>
>  a) Patton takes dollar values and creates stats based on them.  This
>     is the reverse of what everyone I know is doing.  They take
>     stats and create values from them.
>
But we do have to make sure at the end that we end up with values equating 
to the total amount of dollars in the league.  He does say elsewhere that 
he guessed as well the totals for each league.  OTOH, the method is useful 
because it takes the subjective evaluation of all fantasy players, as 
expressed by the price they are willing to pay, and decodes it back into 
stats.  Many stock market analysts would approve of this methodology.  I 
mean, what is going to be harder to forecast, McGriff's home run totals or 
his fantasy price?

>  b) Patton's projected dollar values are subjective.  Based on what I
>     read in the article, there is no logical basis for assigning $42 to 
>     Fred McGriff.  
> 
I don't think we can know that without looking at his forecasts of other 
first sackers.  Wanna bet there's a regression equation in there somewhere?

>  c) McGriff's projected stats are not (IMHO) realistic.  McGriff's
>     homerun totals for the last 3 years are 35 (TOR), 31, 35 and his
>     batting averages are .300 (TOR), .278, and .286.  He's 29 years
>     old and unless he hits a lot of homeruns when he visits Colorado
>     or expansion really dilutes pitching quality, I don't see how he 
>     can approach 52 homeruns and a .302 batting average.
>
What Patton is saying, I think (and like I said, I don't think I know what 
he's saying, I'm just trying to give a charitable interpretation), is that 
this is what fantasy owners would expect him to do, given they are willing 
to pay $42 for him.  My suggestion would be for you to sit with his 
software, put in your expected price, and see what Patton says he'd hit for 
a price like that.  (Can you do that with his software?)

Having said that, I should tell you I will not be purchasing any of his 
products.