From: alanf@tekig6.PEN.TEK.COM (Alan M Feuerbacher)
Newsgroups: talk.origins,talk.religion.misc
Subject: Re: Dawkins/_The Selfish Gene_ quote
Summary: more watchtower misquotes
Date: 19 Aug 92 10:17:25 GMT
Followup-To: talk.origins
Organization: Tektronix, Inc., Beaverton,  OR.

Like many evangelical groups that claim the "end is near", the
Watchtower Society claims there has been a tremendous increase
in earthquake frequency since 1914.  A perusal of the actual data
shows this claim to be nonsense, but they have managed to misuse
statistics to conform to their views.  Sometimes this seems to be
a result of perennially poor scholarship; other times it seems more
like deliberate deception.

I'll give one example of each.

1.  The _Awake!_ magazine of Feb. 22, 1977 said:  "Interestingly, for
a period of 1,059 years (856 to 1914 C.E.) [C.E. => B.C.], reliable
sources list only 24 major earthquakes, with 1,972,952 fatalities.
But compare that with the accompanying partial list citing 43
instances of earthquakes, in which 1,579,209 persons died during just
the 62 years from 1915 to 1976 C.E....  The dramatic upsurge in
earthquake activity since 1914 helps to prove that we are now living
in the time of Jesus' presence."

The fact is that reliable sources list thousands of destructive
earthquakes for this period.  The U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake
Data Base System, available on CD ROM, shows that the 20th century is
pretty much the same as any other in terms of frequency of quakes.
Many other sources show the same for both the frequency and the
number of deaths caused per year.

In 1978 the Watchtower Society began using a "neutral" source to prove
its contentions about earthquakes.  A close look at this source provides
an interesting lesson in the art of "proving" by quotations.

The October 8, 1978 issue of the Italian journal _Il Piccolo_ stated:
"Our generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity,
as statistics show.  In fact, during a period of 1,059 years (from 856
to 1914) reliable sources list only 24 major earthquakes causing
1,973,000 deaths.  However, if we compare this figure to the partially
complete list of recent disasters, we find that 1,600,000 persons have
died in only 63 years, as a result of 43 earthquakes which occurred
from 1915 to 1978.  The dramatic increase further goes to emphasize
another accepted fact - our generation is an unfortunate one in many
ways. (Quoted from _The Watchtower_ magazine, May 15, 1983, p. 6)

A comparison of this statement with the above shows that the Italian
journal was quoting virtually word-for-word from the 1977 _Awake!_
magazine article, without attributing the quotation.  A few numbers
were rounded off and the origin date of 1977 was changed to 1978,
but that's about it.

The problem with this is that the Watchtower Society used the Italian
journal quotation at least ten times in various publications through
1985 to "prove" its contention about earthquakes.  Very nice, the
Watchtower Society quoting its own magazine _Awake!_ via _Il Piccolo_.

Here is one instance where _Awake!_ quotes itself this way.  The Oct. 8,
1980 issue said, p. 20-1: "Has the frequency of earthquakes really
increased?  The Italian magazine _Il Piccolo_ observed:  `Our
generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity, as
statistics show.'  And then it produced figures for the past thousand
years to prove it."

With this sort of scholarship as a base, any reader of Watchtower
publications should ask if this Society is deserving of his or her
confidence.


2. Earthquakes are a random phenomenon, of course, so that there will
be random statistical variations in the number of them in any given
time period.  The _Watchtower_ magazine of May 15, 1983, p. 6, said:

"Some seismologists believe that the earth is now in an active
earthquake period.  For example, Professor Keiiti Aki of the
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology speaks of `the apparent surge in intensity
and frequency of major earthquakes during the last one hundred
years,' though stating that the period from 1500 through 1700 was
as active."

The impression given is that this seismologist is using `apparent
surge' in the sense of `obvious surge', but that is not his intent.
His full statement was:

"The apparent surge in intensity and frequency of major earthquakes
during the last one hundred years is, in all probability, due to
improved recording of earthquakes and the increased vulnerability of
human society to earthquake damage.  The main reason is the well
established plate tectonics which indicates a very steady fault motion
over the past many millions of years.

"A measure of earthquake strength more objective than casualty is the
Richter scale.  It is in general difficult to assign the Richter scale
to earthquakes more than 100 years ago.  An attempt, however, has been
made in China, where historical records are kept in better shape than
in other regions.  Enclosed figure shows the Richter scale (M) of
earthquakes in China during the period of about 2000 years.  The past
100 years are certainly active, but there have been periods as active
as that, for example, from 1500 to 1700."

Clearly the professor is talking about a `seeming surge', due to
better reporting, etc.  His true position is that there has been no
increase at all in earthquake activity in our century, and that the
seismicity of the earth has been stationary for thousands of years.
In private letters to one author he stated:

"I feel strongly that the seismicity has been stationary for thousands
of years.  I was trying to convince Jehovah's Witnesses about the
stationarity of the seismicity, using the data obtained in China for
the period 1500 through 1700, but they put only weak emphasis in the
published statement."  "It is clear that they quoted the part they
wanted, eliminating my main message."

Oviously the Watchtower Society quoted the professor in a way that
misrepresented his true statement and views.  Other recent news 
postings show similar distortions of fact.