From: tloughin@IASTATE.EDU (Thomas M Loughin)
Subject: Re: Astros Contenders?
Reply-To: tloughin@IASTATE.EDU (Thomas M Loughin)
Organization: Iowa State University
Distribution: na
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 1993 17:02:39 GMT

In article <t91r#lr@lynx.unm.edu>, kbos@carina.unm.edu (K. Mitchell Bose)
writes:
> In article <1993Jan8.225345.14654@micom.com> jscott@micom.com (James Scott)
writes:
> >From: niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma)
> >
> >paula@koufax.cv.hp.com (Paul Andresen) writes:
> >
> >> Despite these losers, the Astros should still win 90 ball games this
> >
> >niguma@ug.cs.dal.ca (Gordon Niguma) responds:
> >
> >>> What? ... They also have the Plexiglass principle workings against
> >>> them; teams that change records dramatically tend to go the opposite
> >>> year in the next meaning the Astros are likely to slide back down.
> >
> >hmmm.  most recently proved by atlanta going worst to first and then
> >the next year collapsing its way back into the world series.
> >
> >james
> >
> And most recently refuted by the domination of the American League by the 
> Orioles in the 1990 season after their dramatic improvement and the doormat
> status of the Oakland A's after their 19 game slide in 1991.  
> 
> Of course, Atlanta did slip backwards.  They lost in 7 in 1991; in 5 in 1992.
:)
> 
> Tendencies are just that: tendencies.  The 1914 Braves improved over 30 games
to
> win the World Series; they slipped a little every year.  The 1950 Phillies
made
> the World Series; the "Whiz Kids" slipped to 23.5 back in 1951.  The 1961
Reds
> improved by 25 games or so, but slipped to fifth by 1963.  The 1967 BoSox
went
> from sixth to first, but had to rebuild in '75.  The Miracle Mets won in
1969,
> but finished about ten out for the next three years.  The '84 Cubs.  And
these
> are just the extremes.  That Atlanta avoided the tendency to slip is a nice
> tribute to them as a team, but it doesn't wipe out the fate of most sudden
leaps
> in the standings or win column.
> 
> If it worked 100% of the time, we'd call it a rule.  :)
> 
Nicely said, Kurt.  As a statistician, I get irritated by constantly dealing 
with people who "disprove" things by presenting an exception or two.  As if the
fact that my grandfather lived to be 95 despite smoking 2-3 packs a day proves 
without a doubt that there's no relationship between smoking and heatlh.

Flip a special coin a hundred times.  Watch 99 heads come up.  Argue that no 
trend exists by taking that one tail and getting it a good PR agent.  

Steve Jeltz hit two home runs in a game once.  (I'll stop and let that sink 
in...)  People were bright enough to believe the TREND of his weak hitting,
rather than the EXCEPTION of his sudden power surge.  

Atlanta's "exception" was hardly even that.  They were building to be a 
powerhouse years before the 90/91 flip-flop came around.  That all the talent 
seemed to develop at once might be a coincidence, or it might have been 
planned.  The simple fact was that the PUBLIC might not have expected it, 
but the informed baseball world wan't a bit surprised.
> 
> -- 
> Kurt Bose (as in Daisy, not Rose) * kbos@carina.unm.edu * Walks: not that
sexy.
> "Halt!  Based on conclusive dental evidence that truly bites, I arrest you 
>  hereby for the murdering of the dead Belzic Tascar.  I am obliged to warn you
>  that my weapons are registered as offensive fronds!!"- R.M.Allen, "Monkey
See"

Climbing down off of my soapbox to get a drink of water.
-Tom
From: boell@hpcc01.corp.hp.com (Donald P Boell)
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 17:39:01 GMT
Subject: Re: Lists: The Best Players In Baseeball
Organization: the HP Corporate notes server