From: grimoire@byron.u.washington.edu (John Greer)
Subject: Re: Singin' Those Apocalypse Blues
Keywords: gloom doom magic survival
Organization: University of Washington, Seattle
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 22:47:11 GMT


Okay, here's the material on survival on a group level.  (For those of you 
who just tuned in, there was a post on some ideas for individual training
and preparedness a few weeks ago; if you missed it, and care, e-mail me.)

For the sake of the discussion I'm going to assume, as before, a breakdown
of civilization accelerating to crisis level over the next couple of
decades, driven by resource depletion, social and economic instabilities,
and all the other factors that Ladislas and Lupo have been discussing in
their last couple of (excellent) posts.  I'm also going to assume, obviously,
that the thing is actually going to happen -- which, since I'm still waiting
for that dratted Instant Omniscience Kit I sent for, is still just an
assumption...

I'll deal with economics first, then violence, then magic, then getting 
things under way.

a) in order to make it your group is going to have to have sources of food
and other resources in its control that will meet its needs for the
indefinite future.  That doesn't mean huge stockpiles -- it means having 
the necessary skills to create those resources out of naturally occurring
raw materials.  Farming is an obvious example.  You'll want some stored
food, in case the processes of collapse involve changes in the weather
patterns sufficient to wreck your crops a couple of years running, but
beyond that you're going to want to concentrate on learning how to produce
food, not just living off an irreplaceable backlog.

I'm not sure why, but a lot of survivalist types seem to miss this point.
I've met plenty of people who are feverishly storing freeze-dried foods,
and plenty of others who are planning on living off the (already severely
stressed!) natural ecosystems of their retreat area.  Both of those are
variants on the same sort of consumerist thinking that played such a big 
role in getting us into the present mess.

Generally, skills will do you more good than stockpiles.  The more you 
know how to do, the more likely you are to make it.

There is a catch, though.  Note the reference to "naturally occurring
raw materials" above.  You can't assume that there will be any significant
sources of the things you need beyond what the local geology, etc., will
provide you.  Scavenging may sound like a good idea, and there will no 
doubt be a great deal of it going on, but it seems to me that this is a
dead end.  Where are you when the spare parts run out?  If you're heavily
dependent on the technology in question, where you are is dead.

This puts a limit on the level of technology that's going to be able to be
saved.  If you can't make the device in question from scratch, you'll
probably want to do without it.  This is flexible to a certain extent,
depending on group size; as the number of members grows larger, economies 
of scale make it possible for certain members to be able to set aside
more of their time for the specialized work involved in making the more
complex technologies.  With a group of, say, fifty adults, there's room
for a fair amount of specialization.  On the other hand, if you want to
preserve computer technology (of the present type, that is -- a difference
engine might be a little easier), plan on a group the size of a middling
city-state, and find a geographical area rich in the right rare metals...

After a while -- the time involved will depend on local factors -- your
group will probably find itself as part of an emerging postcollapse
culture.  (Unless things get much worse than I'm expecting, in which case
your group may _be_ the emerging postcollapse culture...)  You'll need
something to trade with your neighbors, and if you choose it right you'll
end up being able to draw on a much broader resource base.  My advice?
Learn to brew really good beer.  You'll probably end up worshipped as gods.

One other thing.  You can work hard, or you can work smart.  The second is
a lot easier.  Decide what skills you'll need, and get them as soon as 
possible -- and practice.

b) in order to make it your group is going to have to hold on to the
resources it produces in the face of organized violence.  One of the
scavenger lifestyles that will no doubt emerge is that of pillager.  The
more you have and the better off you are, the better of a target you'll
be.

There are two kinds of obstacles to put in the way of such folks: passive
defenses, and active ones.  The passive kind gave Europe all that 
picturesque architecture.  Barring artillery, these things work, and work
well.  Someone in your group ought to look up the details of castle design,
and draw up plans based on the size and resources of your group, and on the
location you're planning on using.

This latter is, or can be, a passive defense all by itself.  There are 
good reasons why so many monasteries, Western and Eastern alike, are in
isolated mountain areas.  If you're hard to get to, pillagers may decide
it's not worth the trouble.  If you're really isolated, they may never even 
find out you exist -- but don't count on that.

Active defenses involve things like guns.  Here and now, especially, they
involve guns.  (Though there's still a definite place for martial arts
training in this picture.)  Here too, you need to beware of the scavenger
mentality, and avoid the example of the survivalists who spend more money
than I see in a decade getting enough modern high-tech weapons for a panzer
division.  Again:  if you can't make it or repair it with resources on
hand, it won't be there in a few years...and an Armalite makes a pretty
expensive paperweight.

Fortunately, it's possible to make decent guns using low-tech tools. (The
weaponry used in the Civil War gives some idea of the possibilities.)  One
of the volumes of the _Foxfire_ series -- #5? -- has a big section on
gunsmithing, and your local black-powder club ought to be able to put you
onto other resources.  But someone, or better yet several someones, should
learn and practice the appropriate skills, before they're needed.

One more thing here too.  Get some books on small-unit infantry tactics
and guerrilla operations.  No need to go about reinventing this particular
wheel...

Another thing.  As conditions settle down, and things begin to coalesce,
consider helping your neighbors get it together for mutual defense.  If
everyone in your region is armed and cooperating, problems from petty 
tyrants and so on will be much easier to handle.

c) in traditional cultures people tend to use magic in any situation where
the technology they have available isn't enough to make the outcome certain.
No one casts spells to help in gathering witchetty grubs; kangaroo hunting
is another matter.  Anthropologists, snottily, tend to insist that thiss
means magic is just a way to handle anxiety, but they're a superstitious 
lot... ;)  My own experience with magic makes me think that magical methods
are unpredictable in their effect, but sometimes tweak circumstances in ways
that astonish me; they're not to be relied on, but they have their uses...
especially in circumstances where there's nothing else you can rely on.

If the collapse happens, we're all going to be in a situation where the
things we've relied on all our lives aren't going to be there.  If your
group has done a lot of magic, individually and together, there will be
that extra edge.  Enough of an edge?  Who knows?  Still, I'd rather have
it to hand.

If your group has experience doing group rituals and the like together, it
may find doing other things together a little easier.  This might be a
good argument for survival planning on the part of magical lodges , covens,
and so on.

d) I'd originally intended to put all kinds of suggestions here about getting
organized, locating, and so on, but that's dependent on so many unpredictable
factors it would be a waste of bandwidth to spend time on them.  Besides, 
the likelihood of someone making it will be higher if everyone's using a
different approach...

The one thing I think needs saying is that your group needs a cover -- and
not a religious one.   Publicly, be something innocuous.  Join an almost-
dead lodge of some dilapidated fraternal order, revive it, and then have
some of the members buy and donate to the lodge a chunk of wilderness
property to serve as a lodge campsite.  (I know of people who are doing 
something not too far from this.)  Start a nonprofit to do research on 
organic agriculture, and have it buy farmland in some out-of-the-way area
as an experimental farm.  (I know of people who are doing something close
to this as well.)  The possibilities are endless.  Just _don't_ be anything
that Joe or Jane Redneck will confuse with the devil-worshipping child-
murdering strange-sexual-acts-practicing secular atheist Satanist humanist
Neo-Pagan wacko (did I leave out drug-pushing?  Drug-pushing, too) cults
they hear about every Sunday from the ignorant fool behind the local pulpit.
It would be nice if we could just say, "Hi!  We're a bunch of magicians 
from (YOUR TRADITION HERE!) and our strange rites will improve the 
fertility of your soil!"...but that's the breaks.

Comments are of course welcome,

-- John Michael Greer
   grimoire@u.washington.edu


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