From: CMSgt Mike Bergman <bergman@afnews.pa.af.mil>
Subject: Terrorism On Rise
Organization: Hq Air Force News Agency/SCC
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 1992 18:44:41 GMT


From CMSgt Mike Bergman <bergman@afnews.pa.af.mil>

Terrorism: It's on the Rise

By Master Sgt. Linda S. Lee, USA
American Forces Information Service

     Terrorism isn't a conventional war where you fight a known
enemy on a battlefield, said James Locher III.
     The most difficult aspect of DoD's war against terrorism is
the fact that "the front for terrorism is everywhere," said Locher,
assistant secretary of defense for special operations and
low-intensity conflict.  It's difficult to defend against a bomb on
a passenger plane, kidnappings, hijackings and random shootings, he
said.
     In a keynote address to about 150 anti-terrorism experts at a
DoD worldwide conference at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., Locher said
America is particularly vulnerable to international terrorism.
     "Given America's global military, economic and cultural
presence, and the burning hatred and resentment many terrorist
groups harbor toward the United States, it seems likely that
American citizens abroad will continue to be their targets," he
said.
     An attack on U.S. citizens offers terrorists publicity and
international attention, Locher added during an interview.  "We
give terrorism a lot of attention and media coverage.  And that's
what the terrorist is looking for -- support of his cause."
     With over 400,000 service members, their families and defense
contractors living and working overseas, DoD's people become very
visible and easy targets for terrorists.  For instance, all seven
Americans killed by terrorists overseas last year were associated
with the Defense Department.
     Though terrorism incidents were less than expected during the
Persian Gulf war time frame, terrorism actually jumped 22 percent
in 1991.  Current indications show terrorism is again on the rise,
said Locher, pointing to the Israeli Embassy bombing in Buenos
Aires and warfare in Yugoslavia.
     "Changes in the international security environment suggest
increased danger from terrorism," he said.  These changes include
the breakup of the Soviet Union, the success of Operations Desert
Shield and Desert Storm, the drawdown of U.S. forces and readily
available weapons of mass destruction.
     The collapse of the Soviet Union disrupted the bipolar world
order of the past 45 years.  Without the restraining influence the
Soviet Union exerted, Locher said, vacuums developed.
     "Forces have been released which are increasing instability in
many regions, especially in the developing world.  These include
ethnic-religious grievances, faltering economies, unfavorable
demographic trends, and environmental degradation and disease," he
said.
     These are the types of problems that breed terrorists and
their supporters, Locher said.  The ongoing rivalries in several
former Soviet republics are prime examples of national terrorism.
There is a constant danger that the violence will spread across
territorial borders.
     In addition, with the breakup of the Soviet Union, numerous
international terrorist groups lost a government patron that had
provided financing, training, sanctuary and other types of support.
To keep operating, these groups must find support elsewhere.  The
world's current upheavals may make it easy for them to find new
sponsors, he said.
     Secondly, Persian Gulf operations demonstrated the military
superiority of the United States and its allies.  The coalition
defeated the Iraqis on the battlefield, said Locher, but that
didn't help the war against terrorism.  In fact, the gulf victory
may result in more terrorist acts over the next few years, he
warned.
     "We cannot rely on future adversaries to repeat Saddam
Hussein's mistakes in engaging on a field of conflict," he said.
"Terrorism has traditionally been the weapon of choice for
movements and states that lack the resources to wage war at the
conventional level."
     The worldwide drawdown of U.S. forces and the defense budget
are other changes that could lead to more terrorist activities.  As
the United States withdraws its troops from overseas and dollars
become scarcer, "the challenges of the force mission will increase.
Our force protection assets are likely to be spread more thinly,"
said Locher.
     As the drawdown continues, the U.S. military will become more
of a continental U.S.-based force, said Locher.  Instead of using
forces stationed in trouble spots around the globe, DoD will have
to rely more on stateside rapid deployment units.
     Units deploying from the United States will have less in-place
protection than those units stationed in the overseas area.  Also,
they won't be familiar with the local area and the people, making
it difficult to do the job, he said.
     "Peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance operations in
unstable regions are some of the missions that are likely to grow
in importance and pose potentially greater exposure to terrorist
threats," said Locher.
     Many countries facing economic hardships are turning to
weapons sales for quick money, he said.  Terrorist organizations
can find much of what they want at affordable prices on the open
market.
     Locher doesn't believe terrorist groups will develop a nuclear
weapon in the near future because of the cost and complexity.  He
does fear, however, the possibility of an attack by terrorists on
a nuclear site or weapons in transit.
     "Chemical and biological agents are another very real and more
likely danger," said Locher.   With only a basic knowledge of
chemistry and the use of a laboratory, a terrorist could create
extremely potent weapons.  Or state sponsors of terrorism could
make chemical or biological weapons available to terrorists, he
added.
     "Terrorism and the terrorist aren't going away.  They have a
long reach," said Locher.  "They're changing how they do business,
and we have to be ready for it."


More Terrorism, More Lethality In Tomorrow's Cards

By Master Sgt. Linda S. Lee, USA
American Forces Information Service

     Terrorism works because it's cheap, effective and a great
equalizer in altering the balance of power, said a top DoD
terrorism expert.
     "I am convinced states and groups increasingly will resort to
terrorist attack and complementary forms of political warfare,
because conventional aggression is likely to prove too costly,"
said Peter Probst.  The Persian Gulf conflict showed the punishment
such aggressors risk from the United States and its allies, he
remarked.
     Probst works in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict.  He
recently spoke to about 150 anti-terrorist experts at a DoD
worldwide conference at Fort Leavenworth, Kan.
     Take the easy availability of mass destruction weapons and
technology, said Probst, and the possibility of more attacks -- and
deaths and injuries -- increases dramatically.
     "The potential for such operations has been discussed and
generally dismissed because we believed terrorists were able to
achieve their objectives through the tried-and-true tactics of
bombings, kidnappings, skyjackings and so forth," he said.
     Not so any more, Probst continued.  Terrorists are finding
that it's no longer so easy to keep their agendas center stage in
the world's media.  Governments that paid ransoms or agreed to
provide safe havens and operational bases for the terrorists are
increasingly saying no.  Skyjackings and hostage barricade
operations also have lost their allure, he said, as governments
develop strategies to counter the attacks.
     Terrorist attacks have lost their shock value.  "The public
even is becoming enured to run-of-the-mill terrorist bombings and
other forms of attacks," he said.  To ensure the public remains
attentive, he added, terrorists may be more than ever prepared to
resort to mass casualty operations.
     Such operations are well within the current capabilities of
most terrorist groups or their state sponsors, he said.  For
example, some biological and chemical agents "can be brewed in a
home laboratory of no greater sophistication than those found in
the average American high school."  Terrorist states, he continued,
can produce virulent strains, such as pulmonary anthrax and
botulinin toxin, two biological agents that promise almost a 100
percent kill rate.
     Many former Soviet republics possess the materiels and talent
to make biological, chemical and nuclear weapons.  Probst fears
they or elements they do not control might sell such materiel to
countries or groups that would.
     "Also, there is a surfeit of scientific talent whose families
need to eat, and there are many buyers looking to develop
capabilities for mass destruction in order to ensure their roles as
regional or world powers," he observed.
     Probst believes the ethnic and religious rivalries unleashed
after the fall of Soviet Union will impact on the nature and course
of international terrorism.  He cited Yugoslavia as a case in
point.  Extremist elements have targeted German and Austrian
interests and European officials who are engaged in relief
activities in Bosnia and other parts of the former Yugoslav
republic.
     "I would not be surprised if extremists seriously considered
mounting a mass-casualty operation against the U.N. humanitarian
effort," he said.  He suggested such an operation could be carried
out by military personnel trained in partisan warfare or by outside
terrorist groups with links to the ethnic extremists.
     And although the ongoing internal strife and bloodshed in the
former Soviet republics grabs media coverage, the rabid fanaticism
and ethnic hatred in the Middle East shouldn't be ignored or
forgotten, he said.  Nothing has changed in the Middle East.  The
same fundamental religious groups and leaders are in power, tribal
and ethnic divisions are increasing, military and political power
are held by a few, and, in some areas, genocidal military campaigns
are being carried out against minorities.
     In some parts of the Middle East, and now in Yugoslavia,
"extremist leaders, through force of arms and intimidation, seek to
impose racial, cultural or religious purity that can destabilize
whole regions," said Probst.  This results in mass migrations,
famine, conflict, and economic and political chaos.
     In some ways, the world is a safer place with the passing of
the Cold War, he said.  But in other ways, it is infinitely more
complex.  "There are ethno-political forces that possess much of
the technology of that Cold War era, but lack the sophistication
and restraint demonstrated by the two super powers," Probst said.
     Besides defining problems and working out strategies, he said,
"we must develop new perspectives and tools to defend against those
who would exploit primal fears and anxieties, and would use modern
technologies as a means to settle historic vendettas."


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