From: HADCRJAM@admin.uh.edu (MILLER, JIMMY A.)
Subject: Re: FOCA: And I quote.....
Organization: University of Houston Administrative Computing
Date: Fri, 21 Aug 1992 13:20:10 GMT
X-News-Reader: VMS NEWS 1.20

In <1992Aug20.212437.17478@watson.ibm.com> Larry writes:

> In  <1992Aug20.190712.18672@menudo.uh.edu>  HADCRJAM@admin.uh.edu (MILLER, JIMMY A.) writes:
> >
> > > In article <1992Aug18.194600.15777@ncsu.edu> dsholtsi@csl36h.csl.ncsu.edu (Dou
> > > > In article <1992Aug18.143553.466@cbnewsj.cb.att.com>
> > > > decay@cbnewsj.cb.att.com (dean.kaflowitz) writes:
> > > >
> > > > >dsh@zeus.csc.ncsu.edu (Doug Holtsinger) writes:
> > > > >>garvin+@cs.cmu.edu (Susan Garvin) writes:
> > > > >>>john@anasazi.com writes:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >>> That's *less* than 1%.
> > > >
> > > > >> The annual number of abortions performed at 21 weeks and after tends
> > > > >> to number in the thousands.  Percentages always make the numbers look
> > > > >> smaller than people might realize.  That's because there are millions
> > > > >> of abortions performed every year.
> >
> >   About 1.3% of abortions took place at >21 weeks of gestation in women over
> > 18 yrs of age (1988).  Given about 1.3 million abortions in 1988, that's over
> > 13,000 abortions post 21 weeks.
> >
> >   The 1.3% figure is based on data collected from 11 states.
> >
> > --Centers for Disease Control Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, July 1991
> > --Vital Statistics of the US, 1988. Vol. II-- Mortality.
> > --all figures are for 1988
> 
> Your numbers are a bit off.  First, it's not clear why you're limiting it to
> women over 18; 26% of those obtaining abortion in 1988 were teenagers
> (11 - 19).  (I realize that there's an overlap in the ages, but these are
> the stats I have - also for 1988.)

  The data stated that it was limited to women over 18.  I felt obliged to
include that qualification.

>  Your 1.3 percent is based on 11 states;
> the numbers I'm giving are based on the entire country.

  That's why I included that notification, in case somebody had better figures.
Actually I was sure SOMEBODY would. :-)

> >   A bit much for those 3 doctors someone else mentioned, unless a LOT of
> > abortions occur between 21 and 24 weeks,
> 
> Bingo.  Give that man a cee-gar.  :-)
> 
> (Actually, that's a lot *of those occurring after 21 weeks*, which is less
> than 1% of the total to begin with.)
> 
> Information from the Alan Guttmacher Institute:
> 
> 89% of abortions take place in the first trimester of pregnancy.
> 
> 50% of the 1.6 million abortions each year take place at 8 weeks or less
> from the last time the woman menstruated (LMP); 27% at 9-10 weeks LMP; and
> 12% at 11-12 weeks LMP.  6% of abortions take place at 13-15 weeks LMP;
> 4% at 16-20 weeks LMP; and less than 1% at 21 weeks LMP or more (0.6%).
> 
> About 100 or 0.01% of abortions take place after 24 weeks.
> 
> One study found that of 78 reported abortions past 24 weeks of
> pregnancy, 75 were classified incorrectly and were actually in utero
> fetal deaths or occurred at earlier gestation, and two of the three
> correctly classified abortions were for anencephaly.
> 
> (End of quotes)
> 
> Adding up the above figures, we see
> 50%   at 8 weeks or less,      (fractional percentage unknown for these)
> 77%   at 10 weeks or less,       "
> 89%   at 12 weeks or less,       "
> 95%   at 15 weeks or less,       "
> 99.4% at 20 weeks or less.     (by subtracting 0.6 from 100)
> 
> I apologize for this interjection of facts; we now return you to
> your regularly scheduled flame-fest.  :-)
> Larry Margolis, MARGOLI@YKTVMV (Bitnet), margoli@watson.IBM.com (Internet)

  Hey, I was trying!  Hmmm, but you're right, I made an error.  Since one of
the reports did not include <18 data, that would skew the guesstimations I
made based on the 1.3 million total abortions figure I had.  I shall go over
the stuff again and see if I can reconcile that.

  And what year were your figures for?  That might explain some of the dis-
crepancy as well (besides the 11 states bit--one wonders why the gov. does
this sort of thing--I have no way of telling if the sample is statistically
valid).

semper fi,

Jammer Jim Miller 
Texas A&M University '89 and '91
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Xref: sparky talk.abortion:31703 alt.politics.bush:1573 co.politics:1335