From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1992 22:34:11 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 314, 11/09/92
10.7 FLUX=132.4  90-AVG=124        SSN=117      BKI=2254 5433  BAI=024
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=3.6E+04  PKI=2376 6443  PAI=042
  BOU-DEV=012,019,111,069,082,042,021,033   DEV-AVG=048 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.8   @ 0034UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 2047UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.0
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1820UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1305UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1905UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55433NT @ 0641UT   BOUTF-MIN=55360NT @ 0838UT  BOUTF-AVG=55407NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+139NT@ 2302UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-060NT@ 1246UT  G7-AVG=+068,+047,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+162NT@ 2303UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-052NT@ 0627UT  G6-AVG=+085,-006,+045
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,140;SESC:135,140,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/020,020,020
    KFCST=1113 3111 2225 5222  27DAY-AP=013,016   27DAY-KP=3222 3443 3333 3235
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7330 (S08W36) PRO-
       DUCED MOST OF TODAY'S LIMITED FLARE ACTIVITY INCLUDING THE LAR-
       GEST EVENT: A C2/SF AT 1732Z. THIS GROUP IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
       SOME DECAY AND SIMPLIFICATION. REGION 7335 (S18E21) GREW DURING
       THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED A SIMPLE DELTA IN THE TRAILING PORTION
       OF THE REGION. THE GROUP NEVERTHELESS REMAINS STABLE AND ESSEN-
       TIALLY QUIET. REGION 7334 (N12E19) DEVELOPED SLOWLY DURING THE
       PERIOD BUT WAS STABLE. SURGING ACTIVITY AND AN ACTIVE PROMINENCE
       WERE OBSERVED ON EAST LIMB AT ABOUT S04. THE REMAINDER OF THE
       DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.

            SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
       LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 7330 AND 7335 POSE A FAIR THREAT FOR
       AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT SOME TIME OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

            THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
       AN INITIALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FIELD PICKED UP TO MINOR STORM
       LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDES AND MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM AT HIGH LATI-
       TUDES AROUND 0730Z. THIS ENHANCED PERIOD OF ACTIVITY CARRIED
       THROUGH WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
       AT DAY'S END MID-LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AND HIGH
       LATITUDES WERE AT MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS.

            GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
       EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
       ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES OVER
       THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE PERSISTS.
       CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED
       DUE TO RECURRENT EFFECTS.

            EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV

                             CLASS M    40/40/40
                             CLASS X    05/05/05
                             PROTON     05/05/05
                             PCAF       GREEN

            GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV

                        A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                20/35/35
                        MINOR STORM           10/15/15
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

                        B.  HIGH LATITUDES
                        ACTIVE                20/35/35
                        MINOR STORM           10/15/15
                        MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7330  S08W36  266  0450 DKO  09  018 BETA-GAMMA
7332  S24W92  322  0060 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7333  N09W26  256  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7334  N12E19  211  0210 DAO  09  016 BETA
7335  S18E22  208  0430 DKO  08  014 BETA-DELTA
7336  N07W45  275  0020 CRO  04  007 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 NOVEMBER TO 12 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7315 N06   130
7314 N16   109
7327 N08   105


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
66   N11W72 N11W82 N24W82 N24W82  319  ISO   POS   005 10830A
67   N35E55 N33E50 N42E28 N43E51  195  ISO   POS   006 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **