From: dnash@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu (Dave Nash)
Newsgroups: sci.astro
Subject: Earthquakes (was Re: THE TRUE CAUSE ...)
Date: 16 Oct 92 19:16:15 GMT
Organization: University of Illinois at Urbana

In article <1992Oct16.105838.4892@desire.wright.edu> jbatka@desire.wright.edu writes:
>ON Geologists (and seismologists) ability to predict earthquakes:
>On Browning:
>
>My interpretation of what Browning's prediction was that he was not
>a crackpot (and neither was his theory).

[ideas about planetary alignments and earthquakes deleted]

Two things.
First, Browning did not consider alignments of ALL the planets.  You may be
getting Browning mixed up with the jokers who came up with the "Jupiter Effect"
nonsenso about ten years ago. Browning looked mostly at tidal effects
caused by the Sun and the Moon.  He picked December 1990 for a New Madrid
quake because on one day in December there were *exceptionally* high tides.
(his prediction was for that day, which I can't remember off hand.)

Second, there's no evidence for any of his claims.  Geologists have looked
at thousands of earthquakes for any correlations with tides and similar
phenomena, and found zilch.  Browning was hardly the first to come up with
this idea.

I dunno if Browning is a complete crackpot (he apparently wasn't a net.head
like us, so I don't have any postings to run through the sci.physics
crackpot index ;-), since his theory was at least plausible, and certainly 
testable.  It has been tested, thouroughly, and disproved.  'Nuff said.

                                          Geologists and Seismologists
>have predicted that sometime within the next 10-20 years a major 
>(8+ Reichter scale) earthquake would happen on the new madrid fault.

Please point us to said geologists and seismologists.

My understanding (I'm neither geologist nor seismologist) is that the New 
Madrid fault lets off a real whanger (nice technical term, n'est ce pas?) 
every 4-5 hundred years or so.  Since the fault put out 3 quakes of M>8 within 
the  last two centuries, there's little worry that somehting similar will hap-
pen soon. (OF course it *might*, but that's an entirely different issue, and
in any case the consensus is that's it's unlikely.)
What has been more worrisome is the prospect of something like a M=6 or
so in the not-too-distant future.  Earthquake-resistant construction 
being almost non-existent in these parts, this is a matter of real 
concern (just look at what that mag. 5.9 quake did to Cairo...) 

Shortly after the Browning looniness, I conferred with a professor of geology
about the current "State of the art" in earthquake prediction.  The answer
was very straightforward: competent seismologists would not honestly make
any estimates of earthquake probabilities -- let alone real "predictions" --
except in certain extremely well-studied fault zones (in the US, this is
largely confined to the San Andreas and perhaps a few others).
Even then, they're limited to probability estimates.  Furthermore, only in
a few areas would estimates be given for as short a time as 10-20 years
with *any* confidence.   

So, once more:  please give references to the gelogists and the 
seismologists who claim that the New Madrid region *would* (your word) 
experience a shock larger than M=8 in the next 10-20 years.

>planetary alignment would increase the probability of it occuring
>on that day.  BTW, I am aware that all of the other planetary stresses
>combined are negligable compared to the sun and moon (it's been a while
>but I think venus is next at about 1/1000 that of the sun).

See my remarks above on planetary alignments.  Not only did Browning not say
anything about them (excluding the Moon and the Sun, that is), 
geologists have already shown the absence of any effect
from the *Moon*, so why would Venus or any other planet have any effect,
with less than 1/1000th of the tidal forces?  1/1000 of nothing is a
pretty small amount.


>   Jim Batka  | Always remember ...                        | Buckaroo
>   Modemman   |    No matter where you go, there you are!  |   Bonzai




-- 
David Nash                  | Gradual Student, Chemistry
                            | University of Illinois (Urbana)
(dnash@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu)    | This .sig is made of 100% recycled electrons.
(nash@aries.scs.uiuc.edu)   | No binary trees were killed to make it.