From: mdo@socrates.umd.edu ("Mike T. Do")
Subject: [NEWS] BUSH EXPECTED TO RELAX, NOT LIFT, VIET EMBARGO
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Date: 19 Nov 92 17:56:41 GMT

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By Warren Strobel
The Washington Times (11/19/92)

     President Bush will soon make new gestures toward Vietnam in return for
its help in accounting for missing Americans but is unlikely to lift the
economic embargo, U.S. officials and other source said.
     The lame-duck Bush administration is badly divided over how to respond to
Vietnam's initiative, which analysts believe is timed to secure an end to the
embargo before Bill Clinton's inauguration.
     Wrapping up a visit to Hanoi yesterday, Sen. John Kerry delivered a letter
from Mr. Bush to Vietnamese President Le Duc Anh in which he promised to
improve relations with Vietnam.  It was the first direct communication between
the leaders of the two countries in almost two decades.
     The Massachusetts Democrat, who heads a special committee investigating
the fate of missing U.S. servicemen, urged Mr. Bush to act even before the
Senate panel issues its final report at year's end.
     "This cannot be a one-way street.  It should not be.  And I think it would
be inappropriate for the United States not to reciprocate," mr. Kerry said at a
news conference in Hanoi.
     Vietnam has dramatically accelerated cooperation with U.S. investigators
in recent weeks, opening once-secret military archives detailing the deaths of
American soldiers and holding some personal effects.
     Mr. Bush's letter said such coopeeration will bring the two countries
closer together, U.S. officials said.  But they said it did not promise
specific action from the U.S. side.
     The officials and other sources who follow U.S.-Vietnamese affairs
predicted the president will respond, for now, with small steps that would ease
but not nullify the embargo.
     Such steps, taken from an April 1991 U.S. "road map" for normalizing U.S.-
Vietnamese relations could include:
   * Allowing U.S. firms to sign contracts that would go into force when the
embargo is lifted.
   * Permitting U.S. companies to open offices in Vietnam, hire staff and
conduct studies for future projects.
   *Helping Vietnam to elminate its arrears to the Internation Monetary Fund
and ending opposition to IMF and World Bank loans to Hanoi.
    Any action is likely to come after Mr. Kerry and two other senators returns
to the United States this weekend and confer with the White House.
    Sen. Robert Smith, vice chairman of the Senate committee, predicted there
will be a gradual warming of relations, which he opposes.
    "My sense is there's probably going to be a move...along the normalization
process," said the New Hampshire Republican, who did not accompany the other
senators to Hanoi.  "I think it's regrettable this  is going to happen."
     Mark Van Fleet, director of Asia Pacific affairs at the U.S. Chamber of
Commerce, said:  "I don't think we're going to have a dramatic lifting of the
embargo.  The outgoing administration is unlikely to take bold action like that
without close consulation with the incoming folks.
     U.S. businessmen are eager to have the embargo lifted so they can have
conduct operations on an equal footing with other countries, which already are
contributing to southern Vietnam's fast growing economy.
     Japan's decision this month to break ranks with Washington and provide
$380 million in aid to Vietnam - its first since 1978 - has further weakened theembargo's usefulness.
     If that happens and the United States does not drop the embargo, "that's
the worst of all possible worlds for U.S. business," because Americans will be
squeezed out of IMF-funded projects, Mr. Van Fleet said.
     But the Bush administration remains cautious, wanting to ensure that the
new data provided by Vietnam actually help resovle the fate of missing
servicemen.
     Mr. Smith said a cache of 4,800 photographs of killed or imprisoned U.S.
servicemen that Vietnam provided last month is not "as critical and as important
as I thought it was originally."
     "There's all sorts of pratfalls," one said.
     The administration's divisiveness on the issue also may hamper action.
     Most State Department officials favor lifting the embargo; the Pentatgon
opposes such a move.
     The National Security Council staff, which also has been opposed, is
thought to have a softer view now.
     "There is an opportunity here," one policy-maker said, "but it is far
from certain that anything is going to happen."



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