From: greg@perry.berkeley.edu (Greg Anderson)
Newsgroups: ca.earthquakes
Subject: Re: fax
Date: 28 Jul 1992 16:48:53 GMT
Organization: UC Berkeley
Distribution: ca
NNTP-Posting-Host: andy.berkeley.edu

Explicity at the beginning, again:

	The opinions stated in this post are
*mine*, and *mine* alone.  I don't presume
to speak for anyone but me.

In article <1992Jul27.232145.16052@oracle.us.oracle.com> rchilder@us.oracle.com (Richard Childers) writes:
>hauk@s24.es.llnl.gov (Terri Hauk  423-7332) writes:
>
>> What exactly *is* the data that he is gathering?
>
>Ask him. Politely.
>
>> What is its source?
>
>Heaven.
>

Mr. Childers --

I assume that you are being ironic here.  If not,
please explain this.  Heaven?  How is this data
transmitted from Heaven?  Where is the proof that
this happened as you say?  All I say is *prove* it.

>> How does he *know* it's some sort of earthquake pre-cursor signal ?
>
>Spirits told him.

Once again, are you being ironic, or serious?  If
you're serious, once again I say:  where is the 
proof that this communication took place?  *Prove*
that it happened.  (And "I say it happened, therefore
it happened" is *not* proof)
>
>> How does he get directions from a single receiver (no triangulation)?
>
>How do you know he isn't ? ( Jeez. )

How do *you* know he *is*?  (Jeez.)  

We are not the ones making the claims that Mr. Coles
is making.  Therefore, we don't have to prove anything.
He does.  It is *his* duty as an "investigator" to 
*prove* that his predictions have validity.  It is *not*
our duty to *disprove* their validity.  
>
>I did provide references, and if the reception he gets here is anything like
>the reception he gets from the USGS ( which my dad works for, and which I
>know has internal politics, like any large organization ), I'm not surprised
>that he treats them with a degree of mistrust.
>

What reception has he received here, Mr. Childers?  We have not been
impolite or disrespectful in any way.  We have simply tried to apply
the same standard of proof to Mr. Coles' claims that we would apply to
anyone else's.  Let us see his data and equipment -- *full* disclosure
(to use the analogy I used last time, let him give us a recipe, not
just a list of ingredients with no proportions and no cooking tech-
niques) -- and let us repeat his experiments.  If we get similar
results, fine.  If not, fine.

Also, as Richard Ottolini pointed out, it's important to see if
Mr. Coles' success rate is significantly better than random date
guessing.  I submit that he has not proven this (at least not to
my satisfaction), and that if he wants to be taken seriously, he
needs to prove this, too. 


Overall, the point is that nobody here has been impolite or incorrect
in our demand for more information from Mr. Coles.  We would love it
if somebody came up with a reliable short-term earthquake prediction
method.  We scientists don't like death or injury or property damage
anymore than anyone else.  We'd *love* to be able to give people more
short-term predictions.  And it doesn't matter (at least to me) if 
that precursor (if there is one) is discovered by a non-scientist.

However, Mr. Coles has not demonstrated (at least not to my satisfaction,
and I would bet not to the satisfaction of a lot of other CA seismologists)
that he *has* discovered a reliable precursor.  If he does manage
to prove that he *has* discovered a reliable short-term prediction
method, then I will be among the first to shake his hand.  Until 
he *does* prove it, however, I'm still unconvinced.

Mr. Childers, you seem convinced that Mr. Coles is correct.  Fine --
I don't take issue with the fact that you are convinced.  In fact,
I invite you to try to convince me.  So, if you have any scientific
proof, rather than simple criticisms of the scientific method,
show it to me.  Make your case.  If you manage to convince me, I
will gladly publicly state the fact that you have managed to do so.

______________________________________________________________________
Greg Anderson
UCB Seismographic Stations
greg@perry.berkeley.edu