From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: Reardon to Braves
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Tue, 1 Sep 1992 03:50:12 GMT

In article <1992Sep1.020531.2551@athena.mit.edu> jfc@athena.mit.edu (John F Carr) writes:
>
>Reardon is gone and local reporters seem convinced Clark is going.  That
>leaves Boggs, Hatcher, Pena, and Brunansky.
>
>I don't know how much Hatcher is making, or how long his contract is for, so
>I won't comment on him.

All four are free agents this year.  Hatcher is making $1.6 million
this year, and will probably want over $2 million.

>I don't think Brunansky is overpriced.  The Red Sox should extend his
>contract even if he doesn't have enough plate appearances to require it.

You would pay Bruno the $3.2 million his contract calls for?  This for
the guy who hit .338/.419 two years ago and .303/.390 last year?  Ugh.
His 1992 performance may be worth that much, but it seems unlikely
that he will repeat it.  His career totals are a boring .328/.437.
*NOT* worth $3 million.

>Boggs is going to have a hard time starting a free agent bidding war with
>this season's performance.  The Red Sox should attempt to sign him to a 2-3
>year, medium priced contract like they did last spring.  If he demands $5
>million per year for 4 years, then let him go.

Agreed.  But I think he *will* get a big contract from some stupid (or
desperate) GM.  Right now, I would be willing to go for a $12 million
three year deal.  No higher.  And I don't think there's any chance
that they will be able to get him for that.

>I'm not sure whether Pena should be replaced.  Maybe the next month will
>tell.  His offense is now near the team average, after a poor first half.

No, his offense is still well below the team average.  Pena is hitting
.287/.301.  The team averages are .321/.345.  And in any case, I would
recommend cutting any player hitting for only a .660 OPS.  I certainly
wouldn't pay them $3 million.  I would love to have Pena back to help
Wedge through his rookie season.  But I wouldn't offer him more than
$2 million for that.  And as with Boggs, he isn't going to stay for
that little money.

>Remember that each of Quintana, Gray, Burks, and Greenwell would have added
>a few wins had they been healthy and able to play.  You have to assume that
>some of them will play next year, so next year's team should do better even
>if it doesn't import any star players.

Quintana and Gray may never play again.  Burks now has *three* chronic
problems, two with his back.  I'd say that makes for a seriously
questionable future.  Greenwell might return...

Hope?  I'd look to Plantier, Vaughn, Cooper, Wedge, and Valentin.  I
hope for significant contributions from all of them next year.
Certainly improvements over this year can be expected.  Wedge and
Valentin should easily outhit Pena and Rivera.  While Plantier has
nowhere to go but up after this season.  And Vaughn is improving.  The
team *could* contend without any major additions.  But I'd feel much
happier about their chances if McGwire's bat were anchoring the
lineup.

Cheers,
-Valentine

-- 
Clemens may not win his 4th CY, but he still rules!	tedward@cs.cornell.edu
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball