From: sug6@benedict.uchicago.edu (Patrick Sugent)
Subject: Re: jobs, again
Reply-To: sug6@amber.uchicago.edu
Organization: University of Chicago
Date: Thu, 19 Nov 1992 23:16:17 GMT

nelson_p@apollo.hp.com (Peter Nelson) writes:
>jfh@reef.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky - an innocent bystander) writes:
>>Personally, I would advise college freshman to major in some computer
>>related field (like me.)
>
> I hope it's not too late for him to reconsider his major:  Total
> employment by computer professionals in the US has dropped in
> *each* of the last 4 years (i.e., since BEFORE the recession began)
> and overall more jobs have been lost in the computer industry than
> in the auto industry during the same time (source: EE Times).   Right 
> now THE ONLY source that I've found projecting even *modest* growth
> in computer-related jobs is Megan Barkume of the BLS (a *government*
> agency, for Mr. Hranicky's information), and Barkume made the same
> projection five years ago and we saw how that turned out!
>
   Mr. Nelson, I strongly suspect that Mr. Hranicky means something
different by "computer related" field than you do.   According to
my information (from the Labor department), your statistics are only
true for what is technically the "computer industry".   Since January
of 1989 the "computer industry" has lost about 154,000 jobs.  This is
more than the auto industry (as you say).  However, in 1991 (when
it lost 15,000 jobs) most of the job loss was in administration,
marketing, and support personnel.

  These losses have a great deal to do with the move away from expensive
mainframe computers.

  However, here's the rub, the two most rapidly growing areas for 
computer specialist are not even related to the "computer industry" (from
which you are getting your information).  Computer programmers and
systems analysts work in a variety of fields from financial services to 
manufacturing and are not counted as part of the "computer industry". People
educated in computer science currently face unemployment rates of less 
than 2.5% nationwide.  The Labor department estimates 56% growth in 
computer programmers by 2005 and 80% growth in systems analysts in the same
time frame.  This is 829,000 systems analysts and 565,000 computer programmers
by 2005.  You may take this estimates with as much salt as you like, but
_current_ growth rates for these fields are high.  Even that _Fortune_ article 
you recommended to me predicts high growth rates in this field.

  I really think you are confusing the issue by using what is technically
classified as the "computer industry" to reflect the outlook for all
"computer related" jobs as a layman would think of them.

  BTW, given the number of times we have gone around on this and the fact
that you have a clear competitive advantage over me in terms of endurance
posting :-) , I'll not be responding unless you put forth "new" information.
Please don't take this as rude, just a desire to stop repeating myself.


Pat


-- 
Patrick Sugent				E-mail me if you really want  
sug6@amber.uchicago.edu 		a response.  My USENET reading
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Organization: Heinz School, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA