From: hallam@zeus02.desy.de (Phillip M. Hallam-Baker)
Subject: Re: A Perot Scenario
Reply-To: hallam@zeus02.desy.de
Organization: DESY ZEUS Central Data Acquisition
Date: Sat, 25 Jul 1992 20:57:01 GMT

In article <1640500016@igc.org>, jlohrmann@igc.org writes:

|>Like most Perot supporters, I am saddened by Mr. Perot's choice not to
|>seek the  
|>presidency, I am also very puzzled why this most patriotic person
|>would fold  
|>like a house of cards. 

He's a fraud.

|> I have been puzziling over motivations, 

Puzzle no more! you've been had, accept it.

|> and I think I  
|>have a story to explain his withdraw and possible re-entry at a later
|>time.   

Nope, he's dead meat.

|>This story is purely hypothetical, and if this is not the intention of the  
|>Perot campaign, it could certainly serve as a blueprint for latter re-entry.

Remember what happens after reentry? - splashdown! 

|>Phase 1
|>
|>When Ross Perot decided to enter the race for the presidency, he touched a  
|>nerve in the american public.  The ordinary political process involves the  
|>elite of the two long standing parties choosing a candidate and then
|>attempting  
|>to wow the American public into backing them.  Instead, Perot
|>challenged the  
|>public to "force him" to run. 

They failed.

|> The one thing that americans love is a  
|>challenge.

Nope, they love a fraudster, P.T. Barnum was quite popular you know.


|>Phase 2
|>
|>Ross Perot decides that the American people (or at least 33%+) want
|>him to run.   
|>So he decides to pull out all the stops and organize a real campaign. 
|>He hires  
|>Ed Rollins and Hamilton Jordan (SP?) in a political coup de etat. 
|>These two  
|>men are seasoned professionals, with a long and glorious history of
|>political  
|>campaigning.  The face of the Perot campaign begins to change.  He is
|>now on  
|>the fall ballot on at least 1/2 the states in the union.  Advertising 
|>|>consultants are retained and a series of professional looking,
|>political  
|>looking ads are created. 

Perot looks at his walet and finds that he's starting to spend money
awful fast.

|>Ross Perot is a very private man, not used  
|>to the ugly mud slinging that is common on the campaign train, and the
|>personal  
|>anguish he must have felt over this is probably great.

In which case he is entirely unsuited to being President.


|>His popularity is declining in the polls,

People start to find out what he stands for.

|> as opposition research begins to  
|>succeed in re-defining his character to the American people.  

Hang onm a sec, according to the book of Perot Opposition research is
all hunky dory, even using PIs to spy on the Prez.

|>Phase 3.
|>
|>Put yourself in Ross Perot's place.

OK, But I warn you that I could not live with such an obsene amount of
money, so I'll just donate 90% of it to a few good causes and get used
to the idea of living off the remaining $300,000,000.


|>=======================================================
|>Your liabilities:
|>You have alienated the base of your support.

Thay know you are a fraud

|>You are the target of constant attack.

Wellcome to politics. Hell do you think that Perot could stand a week
defending gun control in talk.politics.guns or poposing that
libertarianism is a crock of shit in talk.politics.misc? He's flakey.

|>The Democrats appear to be getting their act together, using many of
|>the ideas  
|>that you first raised

Ha ha ha. Perot has never raised an issue more concrete than `things are
in a mess, lets fix them'.

|>
|>Your assets:
|>You have an army in the millions of loyal supporters, 

Nope, that was before he turned chicken.

|>An idle army is a terrible thing.

Even worse is cases of desertion, especially by the commander!

|>If you stay in the race, you continue to get knocked about, and you will  
|>probably never be able to get elected.

He won't anyway.

|>If you withdraw, you buy yourself the time to get your positions together  
|>without having to doge pots shots by the press and the other parts.  

But you lose ALL your credibility in the process. Perot could not get
more than 2% of the vote now.

|>As a  
|>matter of fact, the other parties will start praising you in an
|>attempt to win  
|>your supporters over to their ticket.

They are praising the fact that Perot made a good decision by deciding
to quit after he realised that he was not up to the job. People realise
what Clinton & Bush really though of him. Also they didn't praise Perot,
they praised his supporters.

|>Give the American public time to look at Clinton and Bush again, let
|>the get  
|>fed up and disgusted again.  When they give up, they will say "crap!
|>we need an  
|>outsider, we need Ross Perot!".  Once again you will see a ground
|>swell (maybe  
|>sometime in September) to bring Ross Perot into the campaign whether
|>he like it  
|>or not.  But this time he will have prepared himself top do battle
|>while the  
|>heat is off.
|>
|>Perhaps Ross is only trying to buy us a little time.

Nope, the second comming ain't going to happen. The Church of the Risen
Perot and it's supporters now have less credibility than those of his
chum Nixon,


Phill Hallam-Baker
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections,alt.politics.clinton,alt.politics.bush