From: mark.savey@cccbbs.UUCP (Mark Savey) 
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: HORSE RACING
Date: 9 Apr 92 11:29:00 GMT
Distribution: world
Organization: Cincinnati Computer Connection BBS - Cincinnati, OH - 513-752-8248
Reply-To: mark.savey@cccbbs.UUCP (Mark Savey) 

SR>Newsgroups: rec.gambling
SR>From: D1SAR@AKRONVM.UAKRON.EDU (Steve Rimar)
SR>Subject: Horse racing
SR>Message-ID: <167C2A03A.D1SAR@AKRONVM.UAKRON.EDU>
SR>Date: Tue, 7 Apr 1992 16:23:37 GMT
SR>I have two questions for the handicapiers out there.
SR>1. What are some of your methods for selecting and betting the ponies.
      Too long to get into...read books by Mitchell, Ziemba, Quirin, etc.
SR>2. What is doseage and how is it calculated and used?
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GAMBLER'S MATE: Thoroughbred Edition - DOSAGE MASTER v2
Copyright (c) 1991 by Mark E. Savey

Excerpts from my shareware program - DOSAGE MASTER v2's documentation:

  "Dosage is a system that attempts to predict the distance potential
of horses based on certain important sires in the first four generations
of their pedigrees.  These important sires are called Chefs-De-Race,
which is french for "chiefs of the breed".  These chefs are divided into
five aptitudinal categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and
Professional.  The categories correspond to a range of distance potentials
from Brilliant (highest speed, lowest stamina and early maturation) to
Professional (lowest speed, highest stamina and late maturation).  Classic
represents the "ideal" balance of speed, stamina and maturation.  Many
chefs are assigned to two categories.  They are assigned them because of
the success of their progenies in the specified categories.  Their "POINTS"
are split evenly between those two categories....
    a)  DOSAGE PROFILE - is figured by identifying all Chef-de-Race sires
  within a horse's four generation pedigree.  If a Chef-de-Race sire is
  found in the 1st generation, he is assigned 16 pts, 8 pts if in the 2nd,
  4 pts if in the 3rd, and 2 pts if found in the 4th generation.  There is
  always a 16 point total possible with each generation of sires.  Each
  sire becomes less important the further back he is in the pedigree, but
  the number of sires increases to compensate this.  Remember, if a sire
  shares two categories, the associated points are divided equally between
  the applicable aptitudinal categories.
    The DOSAGE PROFILE (DP) for Unbridled (1990 KY Derby winner) is
  11-3-10-0-12 (see page 12 for Unbridled's profile screen).  His DP would
  read: 11 Brilliant pts, 3 Intermediate pts, 10 Classic pts, 0 Solid pts
  and 12 Professional pts.

    b)  DOSAGE INDEX (DI) - the value derived from a calculation with the
  Dosage Profile values.  The calculation is as follows:
     (Sum of: Brilliant + Intermediate + (1/2 Classic points))
     --------------------------------------------------------- divided by
      (Sum of:  (1/2 Classic) + Solid + Professional points)

    The DI calculation for Unbridled would be as follows:
  (11 + 3 + (1/2 of 10))                   11 + 3 + 5
  ---------------------- divided by     =  ---------- = 1.12
  ((1/2 of 10) + 0 + 12)                    5 + 12
       
    Unbridled's DI of 1.12 (see end of page 11 for calculation) was well
  under the 4.00 Dosage Index limit.  He had tons of stamina to sustain
  his driving Kentucky Derby finish winning by 3 1/2 lengths, as his 12
  Professional points would indicate.

    c)  Center of Distribution (CD) - a speed versus stamina scale.
  Values can be positive (more speed than stamina) or negative (more
  stamina than speed).  A CD of zero represents the ideal value of stamina
  vs speed (Classic category). The calculation is as follows:
  ((2 x Brilliant) + Intermediate - Solid - (2 x Professional points)
  -------------------------------------------------------------------
                Total of all points in Dosage Profile

    The CD calculation for Unbridled would be as follows:
  ((2 x 11) + 3 - 0 - (2 x 12)                  22 + 3 - 24
  ---------------------------- divided by    =  ----------- = 0.03
      11 + 3 + 10 + 0 + 12                          36

    Unbridled's CD of 0.03 (listed above) was well under the 1.25 Center
  of Distribution limit.  He's almost ideal (speed vs stamina), with the
  slightest lean to speed, but close enough to be called Classic!  Look:
  -2.00 (Professional)..........0 (Classic).............2.00 (Brilliant)

    Below is Unbridled's profile screen which contains the DP, DI and CD:

UNBRIDLED             BRILLIANT / INTERMEDIATE / CLASSIC / SOLID / PROFESSIONAL
1st Gen. Sire (16 pts)
 FAPPIANO
2nd Gen. Sire (8 pts)
 MR. PROSPECTOR           4                         4
 LE FABULEUX                                                            8
3rd Gen. Sire (4 pts)
 RAISE A NATIVE           4
 DR. FAGER
 WILD RISK                                                              4
 IN REALITY               2                         2
4th Gen. Sire (2 pts)
 NATIVE DANCER                        1             1
 NASHUA                               1             1
 ROUGH N'TUMBLE
 CORRELATION
 RIALTO
 VERSO II
 INTENTIONALLY            1           1

(Continued in the next message)
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 . DeLuxe. 1.21 #8865 . GAMBLER'S MATE: Thoroughbred Edition- GM-THORO.ZIP
                                                                                               
Newsgroups: rec.gambling