From: rogue@anableps.berkeley.edu (Brett Glass)
Newsgroups: ba.singles
Subject: Re: Fun facts to know and tell
Followup-To: alt.test
Date: 8 Oct 1992 07:46:12 GMT
Organization: University of California, Berkeley
Distribution: ba
Reply-To: rogue@well.sf.ca.us
NNTP-Posting-Host: anableps.berkeley.edu

In article <1992Oct7.154810.2075@netcom.com> slf@netcom.com (Sharon Fisher) writes:

>And Marvin is awarded the Brett Glass "Using Statistics To Prove It's
>Not My Fault I Don't Have A Girlfriend" award for 1992.  Let's give
>him a big hand, folks.

And Sharon Fisher is awarded the Rush Limbaugh award for irresponsible,
hateful reporting and misrepresenting people's views to large groups behind
their backs. Stand up and take a bow, Sharon.

What I actually said, more than three years ago, was that census data
points to strong preferences on the part of both men and women for
partners of particular ages. (Both men and women strongly preferred
that there be an age difference between 2 and 5 years, with the man
older than the woman.) Therefore, men who were born in 1958 and 1959
-- just before the per capita birth rated dropped by 20 percent in one
year -- had a smaller pool of potential partners in their usual target
age group. In other words, due to this one-time glitch, I could expect
to find fewer potential partners in this age range.  This reflected my
experience.

I went on to state that, given these statistics, I was most likely to
find a partner in one of two ways: by venturing outside the usual age
range or by waiting for a desirable partner in that age range to
become available due to a breakup or divorce. This was, in fact,
precisely what happened. After a long period during which no viable
opportunities presented themselves, a dark-haired woman wandered into
a coffee/video party I was co-hosting at a local science fiction
convention. We were instantly (and very strongly) attracted to one
another, and -- to my surprise and delight -- spent most of the
evening exchanging long, passionate kisses. In between those kisses,
she told me that -- yes -- she was in the final stages of a divorce,
and I had met her on the very first night she had ventured out to
socialize again. A good thing, too, because such a wonderful potential
partner would not have remained unattached for long.

In short, the statistics were useful: they helped me to size up the
situation and take the most appropriate action. They would not have
helped, however, if I did not use the RIGHT statistics -- or if I'd
drawn the wrong conclusion. The numbers which Marvin Raab quotes in
an earlier message in this thread are not useful for predicting the
number of potential partners available to him. Because they're not
broken out by age, they fail to show the unique dip in the birth
rate that's responsible for the dearth of partners for many men
in their early 30's. 

You are, of course, welcome to accept or reject my conclusions as you
will. But bear in mind that, at least for this sample of one, they
were right on the money.  If you have comments or other views to share
about what I've said above, by all means respond via e-mail. (I no
longer participate in this newsgroup, mainly due to cruel, hurtful
remarks like Sharon's.)  Ironically, it was my SO -- who occasionally
scans newsgroups -- who caught that comment; otherwise, this malicious
"behind the back" remark might have gone unanswered.

Best of luck to you all in your individual quests for fulfilling and
lasting relationships! I've finally found what I think is a very good
one, and I can only hope (as we all must) that it will endure for a
very long time.

--Brett Glass

-- 
"Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet.
 Then all things are at risk. It is as when a conflagration has
 broken out in a great city, and no man knows what is safe, or
 where it will end."                   -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
Newsgroups: ba.singles