From: Jinghong Li <jli@AMSC01.ENGR.UDAYTON.EDU>
Subject:      MFN - Clinton Could Get Tough On China And Keep Ties
Reply-To: Jinghong Li <jli@AMSC01.ENGR.UDAYTON.EDU>
Organization: Indiana University
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 1992 14:12:07 GMT
Comments: To: CHINA-NT@uga.cc.uga.edu, cgsa@fuzzy.umd.edu,
              council@venus.physics.emory.edu

FWD without consent - from csf@uu4.psi.com
------------------------------------------

 Date: Mon, 16 Nov 92 21:45:25 PST
 From: kemnitz@multisys.com (Greg Kemnitz)
 Subject: Clinton Could Get Tough On China And Keep Ties
 To: csf@uu4.psi.com


    Clinton Could Get Tough On China And Keep Ties

    By Gerald F. Seib

   WASHINGTON -(AP-DJ)--The foreign policy cognoscenti
sense a calamity looming for President-elect Clinton: He
carries out his pledge to get tougher with China on human
rights, the Chinese recoil in anger, flourishing U.S.-China
trade ties unravel and China begins making big trouble for
the U.S. on the world stage.
   But the conventional wisdom just might turn out to be
wrong, Tuesday's Wall Street Journal reports.
   There's growing optimism among some analysts that if
Clinton capitalizes on his advantages, he might be able to
exact changes in Beijing's behavior without disrupting
America's increasingly important economic and strategic
relationship with China.
   It's deeply important to Clinton that this more
optimistic scenario unfold, because China can create immense
problems for him on issues ranging from trade to arms
control. What's more, other Asian nations, particularly
Japan, will be watching Clinton's handling of U.S.-China
relations nervously.
   Japan has decided to move toward a warmer relationship
with Beijing and doesn't want that to cause friction with
the U.S. should Washington move in the opposite direction.
Moreover, Asians worry that a souring of U.S. ties could
prompt China to curtail its cooperation on sensitive issues
such as restraining North Korea's nuclear ambitions and lead
the nervous Chinese leadership to act more aggressively in
general.

Clinton/China -2: Will Be Working With Democratic Congress

   One advantage any U.S. president would enjoy is that
China also values its growing economic relationship with the
U.S. and presumably doesn't want to see it disrupted. But
beyond that, Clinton has two other distinct assets as he
approaches the tricky U.S. relationship with China.
   First, because Clinton's rhetoric on China has been
consistently tough, Beijing is likely to take seriously
threats to scale back China's trade benefits unless it
improves its human rights record. Under President Bush, who
openly advertised his personal desire to see ties with China
preserved, the Chinese government appeared to assume that it
would be able to keep trade benefits regardless of its
performance on human rights.
   The second advantage Clinton will enjoy will be a
Congress of his own party, which is bound to trust his
handling of the China relationship more than it did Bush's.
Over the last three years, Congress has been on a crusade to
pass legislation that would end China's most favored nation,
or MFN, trade status unless it improves its human rights
performance and cooperates more in restraining arms sales
and smoothing out trade disputes. Bush has always vetoed
those bills.
   Even with Bush in office, though, lawmakers have been
increasingly inclined to write such legislation in a way
that would give the president flexibility in deciding when
China's human rights performance was bad enough to actually
begin curbing trade privileges. Now, because his party will
be in control of Congress and his credibility in standing up
to China presumably higher, Clinton should be able to
persuade lawmakers to give him at least as much flexibility
as they offered Bush, and probably a measure more.
Newsgroups: talk.politics.china