From: drm@stimpy.com (Don McGregor)
Newsgroups: alt.desert-storm
Subject: Re: Iraqis attempt to kill UN inspectors
Date: 1 Sep 92 00:33:09 GMT
Reply-To: drm@stimpy.com
Organization: ESL, a TRW Subsidiary

In article 5160@cas.org, jac54@cas.org () writes:
>>>Fearless prediction: The US and allies bomb Baghdad and selected
>>>RG targets, and announce that Saddam must go.  Revolts in the
>
>	Forty days and forty nights of hard rain didn't change his mind,
>	another couple of dozen sorties won't do it either.
>
I was thinking more along the lines of killing him, not changing his mind.

According to Scowcroft (US NSC advisor) on one of the Sunday talk
shows, the Iraqis have moved a couple divisions out of garrision in the
last few days.  The US expects that Saddam wants to move against
the shiites in the south again, where a low-level revolt is still going
on.  The Iraqi government said that the "no-fly zone" would be 
resisted "on all levels."  To me that suggests a low-level campaign
of harrassment and intimindation against convienient targets, like the
UN inspectors, who returned to Baghdad today.

The US and allies have penned in Saddam pretty tightly; apparently he
feels that he must respond if he is to maintain control of Iraq outside
of the palace grounds.  The problem is, all his responses are likely
to cause the allies to tee off on him.

 >
>>I don't buy it Don. There appears to be a great reluctance to go back to
>>bombing Bagdahd for what-ever reasons.

Yeah, they're reluctant.  They'd prefer that the whole problem just go
away until after the election.  I don't think it can be swept under the
rug for much longer, though; Hussien's actions are likely to bring things
to a head and force a response, whether the allies want to or not.
The alternative (giving Saddam a free hand in Iraq to subvert the
ceasefire agreement) is likely to be even more unacceptable.
>
>	Agreed, the only people capable of killing SH are the allied
>	air forces and SH would have to be killed before any revolts
>	would be able to succeed.   

Killing him outright via bombing is a fairly low-probability event, due to the
problems in finding him, and then in putting enough ordanance in the right
spot.  Imagine knowing that he's at 1060 W. Palace Way.  An F-117
drops a laser bomb onto the house, but Saddam is in the sunken torture
chamber gouging a few eyes out, and only gets wounded.

His personal security IS good, but again, if there's a perception that
he's a dead man, and that whomever kills him first gets to be ruler, the
life insurance premiums start to go up.  To achieve that the US needs to
make a commitment to ousting him. That's both the most likely way to
succede and the most risky from the US standpoint; if it doesn't work,
we need to go in and hunt him down.  
  >
>	Unfortunately, there is no Iraqi government in exile to take
>	over.  The only thing that could be done would be a UN or
>	Arab League mandate to administer the country until the people
>	were "re-educated" and a stable government that will respect
>	the rights of the people is VOTED IN.

The Iraqi political opposition has been dead or out of the country for decades, so they
have no base of support.  The US tried to patch up an alliance of sorts among
the oppostion groups several months ago, but probably the best that could be
hoped for would be  a loose confederation of the constituent parts of iraq.

A democratic Iraq is largely a pipe dream, IMHO.  There's no democratic
tradition at all there, and installing one would take years.

 The support for Saddam outside of the ruling circle (which is bound to him
by blood and mutual guilt) is very low.  After the Gulf war, a couple reporters
said that Saddam was being refered to as a "triple devil", and that the only
critisism of the US was that it didn't finish him off.  Recall the Iraqi 
soldiers surrendering to Italian reporters, then breaking out into a 
spontaneous chant of "Tscheorge Busch."

---
Don McGregor | "That which does not overflow my swap file 
drm@esl.com  | makes me stronger." 
Newsgroups: alt.desert-storm