From: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Michael Wolverton)
Subject: Support-Neutral W/L Report -- NL
Originator: mjw@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1992 21:01:55 GMT

                  NL Support-Neutral Win/Loss Report
               (through games of Tuesday, September 8)

           (key to abbreviations at bottom of this message)


Top 20 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maddux         CHI   16.9   6.4  0.726   16 11   2.29   46.7   5.03
Tewksbury      STL   14.4   6.1  0.700   14  5   2.38   36.5   3.85
Morgan         CHI   13.8   7.7  0.643   14  6   2.90   28.5   2.94
Swindell       CIN   12.6   7.1  0.638   12  5   2.86   24.9   2.64
Swift          SFG   10.4   5.1  0.671    9  3   2.36   23.9   2.52
Smoltz         ATL   14.6   9.7  0.601   15 10   3.26   21.1   2.42
Schilling      PHI   10.7   5.8  0.648   10  7   2.79   21.4   2.34
Glavine        ATL   13.6   8.8  0.607   19  6   3.19   21.2   2.42
Drabek         PIT   14.0   9.4  0.599   12 10   2.96   23.7   2.13
Martinez,D     MON   12.4   8.6  0.591   15 11   3.22   17.2   1.76
Rijo           CIN   11.1   7.3  0.603   11  9   3.07   19.3   1.60
Hill           MON   11.7   8.3  0.586   15  7   3.17   16.8   1.67
Fernandez      NYM   11.2   8.1  0.581   12  9   2.96   16.6   1.43
Portugal       HOU    6.1   3.9  0.611    5  3   2.80   10.8   1.01
Barnes         MON    5.7   3.6  0.614    6  5   3.02    8.6   1.12
Leibrandt      ATL   10.5   8.6  0.551   11  6   3.96    3.7   1.03
Hurst,B        SDP   12.0  10.3  0.538   14  7   3.68    4.7   0.74
Wakefield      PIT    4.0   2.4  0.627    5  1   2.70    8.1   0.84
Bielecki       ATL    4.8   3.4  0.586    2  4   3.18    7.8   0.73
Cone           NYM   11.3  10.0  0.532   13  7   3.43    6.8   0.57



Bottom 10 NL Starters (ranked by SNW - SNL):

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct    W  L    RA     APR   SNVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Wilson,T       SFG    7.0  11.2  0.386    8 14   4.79  -17.9  -1.99
Martinez,R     LAD    7.2  11.2  0.391    8 11   4.90  -20.4  -1.96
Young,A        NYM    2.8   6.3  0.307    1  7   5.79  -17.8  -1.69
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8  0.358    1 13   4.95  -10.5  -1.65
Henry,B        HOU    8.4  11.6  0.419    6  9   4.40  -11.6  -1.47
Hammond        CIN    6.7   9.9  0.405    7 10   4.64   -8.2  -1.44
Hershiser      LAD    8.6  11.6  0.425    9 12   4.46  -14.8  -1.58
Ojeda          LAD    7.4  10.3  0.417    6  7   4.42  -11.7  -1.48
Gooden         NYM    7.7  10.7  0.420    8 12   4.23   -9.8  -1.53
Bowen          HOU    0.1   3.0  0.037    0  4  14.14  -16.8  -1.40



Luckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Glavine        ATL   13.4   8.8    19  6    8.3
Lefferts       SDP    8.4  10.4    13  9    6.0
Seminara       SDP    3.8   5.4     7  3    5.6
Hurst,B        SDP   11.9  10.3    14  7    5.4
Cone           NYM   11.2  10.0    13  7    4.8
Hill           MON   11.6   8.3    15  7    4.6
Burkett        SFG    8.8  11.2    11  9    4.3
Tomlin         PIT   10.4   9.6    13  8    4.2
Osborne        STL    8.3   9.2     9  6    3.8
Gardner        MON    8.5  10.2    11  9    3.7



Unluckiest 10 NL Starters (ranked by (W - E(W)) + (E(L) - L)):

Pitcher       Team    E(W)  E(L)    W  L   Diff.
------------------------------------------------
Abbott         PHI    4.3   7.8     1 13   -8.5
Gross          LAD    8.4   9.7     6 13   -5.7
Maddux         CHI   16.9   6.4    16 11   -5.5
Clark,M        STL    5.2   6.4     3  9   -4.8
Candiotti      LAD    9.7   8.8     9 12   -4.0
Kile           HOU    4.9   7.3     3  9   -3.6
Cormier        STL    8.5   9.1     6 10   -3.4
Whitehurst     NYM    2.3   2.9     1  5   -3.4
Castillo       CHI    9.5   8.6     8 10   -2.8
Drabek         PIT   14.0   9.4    12 10   -2.6



Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team     SNW    SNL   SNPct.  E(W)    W   L    RA   AdjRA   SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CHI     55.5   39.4   0.585   53.2   51  46   3.35   3.11   7.71
ATL     58.3   43.3   0.574   56.7   63  35   3.47   3.26   7.52
MON     51.7   44.0   0.540   49.7   60  47   3.59   3.54   3.87
PIT     52.7   46.5   0.532   50.5   50  41   3.61   3.66   3.05
STL     50.4   45.9   0.524   49.4   42  45   3.79   3.72   2.04
CIN     48.0   47.7   0.502   46.4   50  47   3.96   3.82   0.00
NYM     47.1   50.3   0.483   45.4   44  50   3.85   4.07  -1.81
SDP     45.4   52.7   0.463   43.7   50  47   4.25   4.32  -3.79
LAD     45.2   54.5   0.453   44.0   41  59   4.14   4.36  -4.88
SFG     43.1   53.0   0.449   41.4   40  53   4.37   4.55  -4.80
HOU     42.1   54.5   0.436   40.7   36  51   4.44   4.62  -6.14
PHI     42.5   55.5   0.434   40.9   37  55   4.59   4.46  -6.21
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NL     582.1  587.2   0.498  562.0  564 576   3.94   3.94  -3.43


============================================================================
Definition of terms:

SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins,
   assuming he had league-average support.
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the
   pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over
   what a league-average pitcher would be worth.

The above three stats are calculated for each start, using innings
pitched and runs allowed plus the league's single-inning scoring
distribution, combined with simple probability theory.  They are
park-adjusted.


SNPct -- SNW / (SNW+SNL)
W, L -- The pitcher's actual wins and losses
RA -- runs allowed per 9 innings
AdjRA -- park-adjusted RA
APR = Adjusted Pitchers Runs -- Runs prevented by the pitcher which a
   league-average pitcher would've allowed.  Same as Thorn and Palmer's
   stat except uses runs instead of earned runs.
E(W) = Expected Wins -- for each game, 0 if the pitcher pitched fewer
   than 5 innings, and SNW otherwise.  (This is *true* expected wins)
E(L) = Expected Losses -- same as SNL

Comments and questions welcome.
============================================================================
-- 
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Michael Wolverton                       "Is that clear?"
mjw@cs.stanford.edu                     "No, but it's consistent!"
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