From: tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer)
Subject: Re: NL East analysis.k
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1992 15:18:42 GMT

In article <1992Dec17.000708.17351@cc.umontreal.ca> iacurtop@ERE.UMontreal.CA (Iacurto Paul) writes:
>
>So it looks like a thrre team race between the Mets, Expos and
>Cardinals. Cubs and Phillies will fight for fourth. Pirates will
>finish last.
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Is my ratings system accurate?
>Have I over estimated or under estimated certain players?

Any system which has the Mets contending is IMHO obviously flawed.
The Expos and Cardinals are reasonable picks to contend, but the
Mets???  I'd place them *behind* the Phillies.  The Mets have little
offense and no pitching.  How can they contend?  

Part of your problem may be with the stats you use.  I think the rest
is that your system tends to favor veterans over young players.  Have
you considered using the Bill James predictions for guys like Colbrunn
and Royer?  After all, stats from 31 AB isn't much to go by.  It would
be *very* unfair to give a player a bottom rating simply because he
only was called up in September.

>Ratings:
>1 - John Kruk       9.5 
>1 - Mark Grace      9.5 (tied for 1st)
>3 - Eddie Murray    8.0
>4 - Greg Colbrunn   6.5
>5 - Orlando Merced  6.5 (tied for 4th)
>6 - Stan Royer      5.0 

I'd be inclined to take Royer and Colbrunn over Merced based on youth.


>Ratings:
>1 - Ryne Sandberg      10
>2 - Delino Deshields    9
>3 - Geranimo Pena       8
>4 - Mikey Moorandini    6.5
>4 - Jeff King           6.5 (Morandini better avg, King more power)
>6 - Jeff Kent           5

Here the problem is a first-division/second-division thing.  Sandberg
and DeShields are simply *miles* better than their competition.  (Not
quite sure where Pena lies.)

>Ratings:
>1 - Tony Fernandez      8
>1 - Jay Bell            8
>1 - Ozzie Smith         8  (no clear winner among these three)
>4 - Wil Cordero         6
>4 - Shawn Dunston       6
>4 - Mariano Duncan      6  (no clear winner among these three)

Cordero might surprise here...  And I would drop Fernandez to a strict
third place.  Fernandez is one of those players who is overrated by
the basic stats.  He makes an incredible number of baserunning
blunders, which effectively destroys his value as a leadoff hitter.

>Ratings:
>1 - Dave Hollins        10
>2 - Howard Johnson       9
>3 - Todd Zeile           8
>4 - Steve Buchele        7
>5 - Tim Wallach          6
>6 - Kevin Young          5

Will the Expos really start Wallach?  If so, they deserve a clear
bottom at this position.  He has been one of the worst players in the
league for the past two years.  He slugs like a shortstop, hits for
average like a catcher, and walks like Andre Dawson.  But I thought
they were finally fed up with that?  I thought they were going to try
other alternatives?

>Ratings:
>1 - Darren Daulton      10
>2 - Laval./Slaught       9
>3 - Rick Wilkins         8
>4 - Tom Pagnozzi         7
>5 - Todd Hundley         6
>6 - Tim Laker            5

Again, while I agree that Laker sucks, I'm not convinced that he will
be anything more than a backup.  They acquired Tim Spehr from the
Royals, I believe, and don't they have a couple prospects too?  No
bets on who ends up with the job, but I doubt it will be Laker.

>Ratings:
>1 - Bernard Gilkey        10
>2 - Vince Coleman          9
>3 - Moises Alou            8
>4 - Derrick May            6.5
>4 - Chamb./Thomp.          6.5
>6 - Steve Martin           5

Hah!  Vince Coleman shouldn't even be ahead of Derrick May!  I know he
managed a .355 OBP last year, but that was a clear fluke.  And he
couldn't slug his way out of a wet paper bag!  I'd drop Coleman to
fifth place here...  Maybe third if he gets injured and the Mets play
Boston.

>Ratings:
>1 - Ray Lankford       10
>2 - Marquis Grissom     9
>3 - Andy Van Slyke      8
>4 - Lenny Dyksta        7  (more injury prone than Slyke)
>5 - Rick Wilkins        6
>6 - Ryan Thompson       5

I thought Wilkins played catcher?  Silly me...

>Ratings:
>1 - Larry Walker       10
>2 - Felix Jose          8.5
>2 - Bobby Bonilla       8.5
>4 - Candy Maldonado     7
>5 - Inca./Javier        6
>6 - Lloyd McClendon     5

I dunno about that.  I'd say Bonilla is a clear choice over Jose.  And
McClendon vs Incaviglia?  A tossup.

>Ratings:
>1 - Mike Morgan       8
>1 - Sid Fernandez     8
>1 - Dennis Martinez   8
>1 - Tim Wakefield     8
>1 - Bob Tewksbury     8
>6 - Terry Mulholland  5

Sid Fernandez does not deserve to be mentioned in the same breath with
the rest of these guys!  And I'm at least a little skeptical about
some of the others.  I'd rate Martinez first, Wakefield and Tewksbury
second, then Morgan/Fernandez, then Mulholland a distant sixth.

>Ratings:
>1 - Ken Hill         9.5
>1 - Curt Schilling   9.5
>3 - Dwight Gooden    8.0 
>4 - Jose Guzman      6.5
>4 - Randy Tomlin     6.5
>6 - Rheal Cormier    5.0

BARF!  Gooden is not better than Guzman *or* Tomlin.  And all three
are injury prone, so you can't give me that...

>Ratings:
>1 - Bret Saberhagen       10
>2 - Zane Smith             9
>3 - Ben Rivera             8
>4 - Chris Nabholz          6
>4 - Frank Castillo         6
>4 - Donovan Osborne        6

I think Nabholz can improve on this...

>Ratings:
>1 - Bob Walk        10
>2 - Pete Schourek    7
>2 - Greene/Jackson   7
>2 - Greg Hibbard     7
>5 - Mike Gardiner    5.5
>5 - Mark Clark       5.5

I was expecting Gardiner to be the #5 starter.  Isn't Bottenfield the
#4 guy?  And *he* is better than pretty much any of the above.  Except
perhaps Bob Walk.

>STARTING PITCHING TOTALS
>1 - Pirates          33.5
>2 - Mets             33
>3 - Phillies         29.5
>4 - Expos            29
>5 - Cubs             27.5
>6 - Cards            24.5

The Mets rate four points higher than the Expos, despite the fact that
the Expos finished with an ERA half a run lower last year, and the
Mets have lost their ace.  SOMETHING is wrong here.  Switch the two
and it might look right.

>Ratings:
>1 - Mel Rojas        10
>2 - Dan Pleasac       8
>2 - Mk Perez          8
>4 - Roger Mason       6
>4 - Mike Hartley      6
>4 - Terry Neagle      6

I think you overrate Plesac here...  He's not that good.  And Mason is
pretty bad.

>BULLPEN TOTALS:
>1 - Expos           18
>2 - Cards           17.5
>3 - Cubs            16
>4 - Mets            15.5
>5 - Pirates         12
>6 - Phillies        11

Hm.  Feels like the Mets belong lower.  They have Franco, but *NO*
middle relief.  The Expos have a solid pitching staff from top to
bottom.  They don't need to give significant PT to anybody worse than
Nabholz, except for Mike Gardiner (who will be better than last year,
IMHO).

>TEAM TOTALS:
>1 - Mets            107
>2 - Expos           106.5
>2 - Cards           106.5
>4 - Cubs            103.5
>5 - Phillies        102
>6 - Pirates          98.5

I'd place the Mets down by the Cubs.  I think that they are clearly a
second-division team.  And I wouldn't be shocked if they finished
sixth.

Cheers,
-Valentine
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball