X-From_: tgray  Wed Sep  9 17:41:43 1992
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.biosph-l
Date:         Wed, 9 Sep 1992 17:41:51 PDT
Reply-To:     Tom Gray <tgray@IGC.APC.ORG>
Comments:     Resent-From: Tom Gray <tgray@igc.apc.org>
Comments:     Originally-From: Tom Gray <tgray@igc.apc.org>
From:         Tom Gray <tgray@IGC.APC.ORG>
Subject:      --Warming Threat to Economy

/* Written  5:28 pm  Sep  9, 1992 by tgray in cdp:en.energy */
/* ---------- "--Warming Threat to Economy" ---------- */
IIE STUDY SEES LONG-TERM
DANGERS IN GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming from carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases"
poses a serious long-term threat to the U.S. and global economies,
according to a recent report from the Institute for International
Economics (IIE), a Washington, DC-based group.

According to IIE's William Cline, global warming by a predicted 2.5
degrees Celsius (C) by the year 2050 will reduce U.S. gross
domestic product (GDP) by about one percent, or $60 billion.
However, Cline noted, global warming is cumulative and irreversible
and is projected to reach 5.7 degrees C by the year 2100 and 10-18
degrees C by 2300.  The impact of the latter figure would be a drop
of six to 20 percent of GDP.

Based on these figures, Cline said, a longer time frame should be
used in considering the consequences and costs of the greenhouse
effect.

The study proposed a two-phased approach to curb warming.  The
first phase would include:

(1) an international treaty to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions
at 1990 levels by the year 2000, as several industrial countries
have already pledged;

(2) a steadily increasing carbon tax, which would reach $40/ton by
2000; and

(3) removal of all existing subsidies which encourage carbon
emissions, such as subsidies for coal and electricity use.

If the current scientific consensus is confirmed by the end of the
decade, Cline said, a second phase should begin, that would include
higher and more uniform carbon taxes or a carbon dioxide emissions
trading system (see "CO2 Emissions Trading May Be Wave of Future,
Experts Believe," Wind Energy Weekly #498, May 11, 1992, p. 4).  An
agreement similar to the 1987 Montreal protocol on
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which provides for economic sanctions
against countries who fail to abide by agreed-upon limits for CFC
production, would also be part of the second phase.

===============================

The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has authorized me to offer
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*******************************************************************
Tom Gray                                 EcoNet/PeaceNet: tgray@igc
Internet/Bitnet: tgray@igc.apc.org    UUCP: uunet!pyramid!cdp!tgray