From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1992 11:07:18 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 346, 12/11/92
10.7 FLUX=164.4  90-AVG=133        SSN=190      BKI=4122 2222  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B6.2     FLU1=9.1E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3111 2222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=040,007,011,012,013,015,013,015   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.4   @ 1451UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.3   @ 0437UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2010UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2125UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2245UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1330UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55431NT @ 0229UT   BOUTF-MIN=55398NT @ 1848UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1711UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 1047UT  G7-AVG=+081,+027,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1945UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-015NT@ 0234UT  G6-AVG=+097,-006,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:170,175,175;SESC:170,175,175 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 3322 2223 3322  27DAY-AP=008,013   27DAY-KP=2223 3222 3222 4433
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
       occurred, all of which originated from either Region 7360
       (S17E05) or Region 7362 (S04W10). Both Regions showed gradual
       growth during the period. Newly assigned Region 7366 (S12E56)
       displayed gradual growth as well, but produced no flares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7360 and 7362 are expected to produce
       C-class subflares. Both Regions also pose a slight threat for
       producing an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled during the first two days
       declining slightly to quiet to unsettled levels during the
       final day. However, isolated periods of active conditions may
       occur at high latitudes, particularly during local nighttimes.

            Event probabilities 12 dec-14 dec

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 dec-14 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal throughout the
       last 24 hours.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next two to three days.  No significant changes are expected.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S17W37  205  0070 CAO  06  004 BETA
7360  S17E05  163  0300 EAI  11  037 BETA
7362  S04W10  178  0440 EKI  11  046 BETA
7363  S07E32  136  0200 DAO  09  013 BETA
7364  N10E29  139  0070 CSO  04  004 BETA
7365  S21W29  197  0020 BXO  07  010 BETA
7366  S12E57  111  0050 CAO  05  006 BETA
7359  S28W50  218                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 DECEMBER TO 14 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7347 S06   072
7345 S23   057
7346 S08   053


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/ 1042     1102     1136                LDE    C1.2   54


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
76   N03E72 S05E57 N14E47 N14E47  115  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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