From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1992 05:34:14 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              08 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 252, 09/08/92
10.7 FLUX=128.9  90-AVG=124        SSN=063      BKI=4453 3222  BAI=019
BGND-XRAY=B8.0     FLU1=3.5E+06  FLU10=2.0E+04  PKI=3454 4322  PAI=020
  BOU-DEV=055,060,105,020,038,018,010,015   DEV-AVG=040 NT     SWF=03:072
 XRAY-MAX= M2.6   @ 1208UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.8   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= C3.0
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2320UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1855UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1620UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 1215UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55450NT @ 0048UT   BOUTF-MIN=55400NT @ 1711UT  BOUTF-AVG=55423NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+095NT@ 1102UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-033NT@ 0751UT  G7-AVG=+067,+047,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 0755UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-018NT@ 1804UT  G6-AVG=+078,-009,+034
 FLUXFCST=STD:124,118,115;SESC:125,125,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/015,015,015
    KFCST=3344 5333 3334 5322  27DAY-AP=010,010   27DAY-KP=3333 3222 2122 3333
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/SN@0900;**MINFLR:M2.6/SN@1208;**MINFLR:M1.2/SF@1928;
          **SWEEP:II=1@1213UTC;**SWEEP:IV=3@1204UTC;
          **TENFLR:160SFU@1205UTC,DUR=8MIN
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity was moderate today.  Region 7270 (S11W72) showed
additional signs of stabilization during the day.  Flare output was less
frequent, but was still fairly active.  Of the three M-class flares observed
today, Region 7270 was responsible for two: an M1.5/SN flare at 09:00 UT and
an M1.2/SF flare at 19:28 UT.  Both of these events were long in duration
with slow rise and decay times.  The other M-class flare originated from
Region 7276 (N16E66) and attained a class M2.6/SN level at 12:08 UT.  This
latter flare was associated with a weak Type II sweep at 12:13 UT and a
strong Type IV sweep at 12:04 UT.  X-rays from this event were somewhat
impulsive.

     New Region 7277 (S11E31) was numbered today.

     Solar activity should continue mostly moderate, although the threat for
an additional major flare from Region 7270 will exist until after it rotates
beyond the west limb on 10 September.  We will continue to see possible major
flaring in the form of uncorrelated x-rays for a day or two thereafter.
Region 7276 is expected to produce occasional isolated M-class flare
activity.  There is also a chance this region may also support an isolated
major flare over the next 3 to 5 days.  Proton enhancements in the near-Earth
space environment from activity in Region 7270 will remain possible over the
next 72 hours.

     The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Brief minor storming was observed near 09:00 UT.  The generally unsettled to
active state of the field over the last several days has not been clearly
identified with a particular solar source.  The field is expected to become
generally active to minor storm over the next 24 to 48 hours in response to
the recent major flaring observed from Region 7270.  Periods of minor to
major storming will be possible, particularly over the higher latitude
regions if disturbances arrive.

     There is a chance levels of auroral activity could become enhanced
sufficiently to be observed over the middle latitude regions if the
interplanetary disturbances arrive over the next 24 to 48 hours.  Lunar phase
(near 80 percent illumination) will inhibit attempts to view activity.

     HF propagation conditions were generally near-normal to below-normal
today over most regions.  MUFs were generally depressed by about 20 to 30
percent.  Conditions could become further degraded over the next 24 hours if
the anticipated interplanetary disturbances from the recent major flares
arrive.  High and polar latitude signal paths could see poor to very poor
propagation.  Middle latitude paths are expected to have generally good to
fair propagation with occasional poor periods during the local night and
early morning hours.  Low and equatorial signal paths should see mostly good
propagation throughout the period.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7270  S11W72  040  0460 EKI  14  019 BETA-DELTA
7276  N16E66  262  0310 DAO  08  012 BETA
7277  S11E31  297  0000 BXO  04  002 BETA
7274  N05W50  018                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 SEPTEMBER TO 11 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0801 0900 0946 7270  S11W63 M1.5  SN
 1204 1208 1227 7276  N15E68 M2.6  SN    320 160    II/IV
 1816 1928 2017 7270  S10W66 M1.2  SF


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
08/ 0801     0900     0946       S11W63   LDE    M1.5  105
08/B1213             A1217       N15E68   RSP    M2.6   23  1  3
08/ 1816     1928     2017       S10W66   LDE    M1.2  121


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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