From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 November
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 1992 07:52:07 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 NOVEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 NOVEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 317, 11/12/92
10.7 FLUX=127.4  90-AVG=124        SSN=122      BKI=2423 3223  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=2.3E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2323 3333  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=013,046,011,038,024,019,012,034   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.0   @ 0049UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 1315UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0010UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1325UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1615UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55432NT @ 0409UT   BOUTF-MIN=55397NT @ 1834UT  BOUTF-AVG=55418NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1839UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 2308UT  G7-AVG=+085,+030,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 2044UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-018NT@ 0201UT  G6-AVG=+102,-010,+030
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,125,130;SESC:125,125,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,018,015
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=021,015   27DAY-KP=5543 3223 3344 3332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1305-1511UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7337 (N06E53)
       produced the largest flare of the day, a C1/SF at 12/0049Z.
       This region has grown since yesterday. Regions 7330 (S08W77),
       7334 (N13W23), and 7335 (S17W17) are all slowly decaying.
       New Region 7339 (S17E11) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. C-class flares are possible in Regions 7330, 7334, 7335,
       and 7337.

            Old Region 7321 (S25,LO=070) is due to return over the
       next 72 hours and may elevate levels of activity at that time.
       This region was responsible for two major X-class proton flares
       as it approached and departed the west limb two weeks ago.  It
       likely has diminished in size and complexity since then, but
       could still be capable of producing M-class flare activity.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
       to storm conditions occurred at some high latitude stations.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are
       possible at high latitudes on the second day.

            Event probabilities 13 nov-15 nov

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 nov-15 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/40
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next 72
       hours.  Good propagation should dominate over the low and
       middle latitudes, while high and polar latitude paths should
       experience mostly fair propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7330  S08W77  267  0090 DAO  08  005 BETA
7334  N13W22  212  0120 CAO  11  018 BETA
7335  S17W17  207  0470 DKO  10  018 BETA
7336  N07W93  283  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7337  N07E54  136  0130 CAO  04  005 BETA
7338  N05W40  230  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7339  S17E11  179  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7333  N09W65  255                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 NOVEMBER TO 15 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7316 S10   098
7321 S25   070


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 NOVEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 NOVEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
67   N31E13 N30E09 N40W13 N48E10  198  ISO   POS   012 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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