From: jack@freezer.cns.udel.edu (Jack Seltzer)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling
Subject: Re: Playing Double-up in roulette
Date: 11 Nov 92 17:47:20 GMT
Article-I.D.: news.BxKC2w.8yu
Reply-To: jack@freezer.cns.udel.edu
Organization: University of Delaware

In article 1dqeueINN3ap@agate.berkeley.edu, jacob@ocf.berkeley.edu (Jacob Jin) writes:
> In article <dbarber.721441839@crash.cts.com> dbarber@crash.cts.com (David C. Barber) writes:
> >Given a minimum bet of $2 (tell me if this is out of line to expect
> >these table limits) and a table limit of $500, is playing double-up
> >on the even money bets at roulette a slow way to make say $50-$100/hour,
> >or a quick trip to disaster.  Assume that my bankroll will let me make
> >the $256 bets if necessary.
> >
> >Who has done the study on all the possible combinations of win/lose
> >and how one comes' out from it.
> >
> >Also, do the LV casinos ever ask you to leave, or close the table
> >just after you've lost your $128 bet for the sake of "getting" a double
> >up player?
> >
> >Thanks.
> >
> >
> >Without change,                         *David Barber*
> >   nothing can ever get better.            @}-->----
> >
> >UUCP: ucsd!crash!dbarber
> >INET: dbarber@crash.cts.com
> 
> 
> You seem to have a pretty good grasp on the basics of winning roulette, but
> there are a lot of as-of-yet unpublished techniques that are
> essential to money-making play which you may or may not be
> aware. First of all, the Martingale(the "doubling-up" method
> you refer to) is a powerful tool whose profit potential has
> escaped most computer analysis. The casinos are not willing to wait

Is this a joke?  This is a joke, right?  You guys are kidding, right?
Well, just in case you're not kidding...just in case.....

There is no betting scheme that can change the over all odds of 
a game of chance.  Blackjack players who count cards win because
they weight their bets, betting more when they have the advantage 
and less (or not at all) when they don't.  The reason this is possible, is
because the advantage does change in bj, a game where there is sampling
without replacement.  Craps and roulette have a negative advantage
for the player.  This advantage is the same every single roll of the 
dice or spin of the roulette wheel. While the method of doubling up
your bet after losses will win for relatively long periods of time, sooner
or later, this play will end up in the big loss, canceling out all of 
the previous wins and putting the player in the loss column.  You don't 
need a simulation to prove this, but if you do simulate it, you will find
that this is the case.  It is amazing how many players simply choose
to ignore this fact.  I've talked to some.  An aquantance of mine 
would respond with something like.."Yeh, I know what the math says, BUT, 
just suppose, etc., etc., etc."

The best line of this is ...

> First of all, the Martingale(the "doubling-up" method
> you refer to) is a powerful tool whose profit potential has
> escaped most computer analysis.

It has been analyzed to death!  While the Martingale player has
a very small change of being an overall winner as time goes on, 
the probability is large that he will be a loser!  

Why do you think that casinos will not allow bj players to 
bring strategy cards with count numbers on them to the table, 
but will allow roulette players to do all the calculations their
heart desires?  They don't care, because they know their losers
no matter what they do.  

If you want to play roulette for fun using a martingale or not, 
enjoy yourself.  But if you think you've got the answer to wealth
forget it.