From: pmc@world.std.com (Patrick M Chase)
Subject: Re: Probability & Statistics
Organization: The World Public Access UNIX, Brookline, MA
Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1992 17:02:22 GMT

In article <1992Jul24.101549.27662@dartvax.dartmouth.edu> Frederick.A.Ringwald@dartmouth.edu (Frederick A. Ringwald) writes:
>You often hear that the Dead have never repeated a set. How does anyone
>know? Has anyone ever checked?

Yes. As best as anyone can. The records are only as correct as we can make 'em.
I'm still amazed we even have a clue as to what tunes were played at "Joe's Bar
and Grill" in '68.

>What do you think the chances are of them ever repeating a set?

I'd think it's pretty good. I remember some first sets in 1990 that were pretty
close to duplicates. Ask Eric Simon to run some stats for you.

>I'm not so sure about arguing that if they did, some fans would notice.
>Anyone can make a mistake, after all, for any number of reasons, plus
>the band has played a fair number of sets.

It would be noticed. But I don't suppose anyone would really mind unless they
were consecutive shows. And the odds of that happening are pretty slim. I
doubt that the Dead are very conscious of it beyond each tour or run.

>Let's not count individual notes - which cause huge variations in the
>case of Dark Star alone - just song titles, as if this weren't
>fuzzily-defined enough already. (Does anyone really know when the Other
>One starts? Does the band?) Some songs are played more often than
>others, so a really good model for predicting the chances of repeating
>a set (the probability problem) would assign differing statistical
>weights to each song. Checking to see if the band has ever repeated a
>set (the statistics problem) might be easier, provided a text file of
>setlists for all sets ever played, with all song titles consistently
>written.
>
>Most interestingly, how does the band know? If they are on the verge of
>repeating a set, does someone chime in, "no, we played that set in
>1974"? Or is their repertoire so large they never get close?

They just do it. The fact that they no longer do St. Stephen and Alligator
and Hard To Handle and scores of other tunes reduces the chances of a repeat.
It's not like they think about it, I'm sure. There's always new tunes and
old tunes are always dropping out and sometimes coming back.

That's one of the reasons I collect tapes; every year has a distinctive flavor
or taste to it - the musicians, the attitudes, the tunes, the sound. You can't
mistake a second set 1973 show for a 1992 second set. Or even a 1982 set. Hmm,
even a 1972 set. Repeated sets are impossible if you look at it this way.

But to look at it from a really strict viewpoint, a Dark Star is a Dark Star
regardless of how it's played and when it starts. The Dead and their fans
know what Other One is - whether or not it's the entire suite or just the
Bobby part we hear alot now. So Other One (or "That's It For The Other One")
is written into history. A simple algorithm will identify any repeats. Forget
the tonal inuendos and varibles. It's a spectrum - you can only get productive
with this kind of question when you quantize the event into musical snippets
called songs - and you name them too. String out the song titles and you've
got a list. Look for duplicates there. You can't do it any other way. If you
wanted to, I imagine you'd have to narrow your search to Scarlet jams or
something - not the whole dang spectrum. It's like asking if any of the days
of your life are duplicated.

Hey Eric  -  Why not run that doo-dad program you've got there and see what
the closest duplicate sets are. Now *I'm* curious too...
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