From: weir@cbmvax.commodore.com (Robert Weir - Manuals)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball
Subject: Ex-Cub Factor
Date: 12 Oct 92 19:36:36 GMT
Reply-To: weir@cbmvax.UUCP (Robert Weir - Manuals)
Organization: Commodore Technology, West Chester, PA


I first learned of the Ex-Cub factor in an article which appeared
in "The Des Moines Register". 1983 maybe? The article was written by
Ron Berler of Evanston, Ill. 



RSW

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BE CAUTIOUS OF THE EX-CUB FACTOR

I have done some heartless things as a journalist. I have invaded
the privacy of grieving families. I have written critically of the
dead. But nothing had prepared me for the assignment I faced last 
October.

Tens of thousands of Chicagoans -- people from my hometown -- were 
spending millions on White Sox T-shirts, candy bars, record albums,
cookbooks (you must try Greg Luzinski's recipe for pasta salad), 
scalped tickets, and God knows what else, all in anticipation of
a World Series victory later that month.

And I had to tell them they were wasting their money, that the 
White Sox were doomed, that they were better off watching the Chicago
Bears on TV.

The Sox never reached the World Series. But rest assured that if they
had, they would have lost as ignominously as the Phillies, and for
the same reason -- both their rosters absolutely teemed with ex-Chicago
Cubs.

Clearly, the teams' executives had ignored the Ex-Cub Factor, the most
accurate method ever devised for predicting World Series winners. 
According to this virtually irrefutable theorem, one simply counts the
number of former Cubs on each World Series teams's roster. The team with
three or more ex-Cubs will lose. The White Sox had three (Dennis Lamp,
Dick Tidrow, Scott Fletcher), and so did the Phillies (Greg Gross, Ivan
DeJesus, Willie Hernandez). The champion Baltimore Orioles had none.

This formula has worked 11 of the 12 times it has been applicable since
1945, the last time the Cubs reached the World Series. That's 92 percent
accuracy, for those of you keeping score. Only the 1960 Pittsburgh
Pirates, with ex-Cubs Gene Baker, Smokey Burgess, and Don Hoak, have 
beaten the jinx.

The Ex-Cub Factor has won great respect among fans, but its acceptance
in baseball circles has been slow. Only Yankee owner George Steinbrenner
has recognized the theorem's wisdom. His 1981 team collapsed under
the weight of five ex-Cubs.

"Had I believed for one minute that my Cubs had done me in, I can assure
you I would have gotten rid of them immediately," he said in a phone
interview. "And if we get to the World Series next year and lose, I will
get rid of them."

Four clubs -- the Giants (ex-Cubs Mike Krukow, Manny Trillo, Scot Thompson),
the A's (Bill Caudill, Ray Burris, Dave Kingman), the Padres (Champ Summers,
Craig Lefferts, Carmelo Martinez) and the Phillies (Greg Gross, Bill
Campbell, Ivan DeJesus) -- have already eliminated themselves from
winning the 1984 World Series.

The Phillies are especially arrogant in their disregard for the Ex-Cub Factor.
Earlier this week, a reporter called club vice-president Tony Siegle, to
congratulate the Phillies for unloading reliever Hernandez and reducing their
ex-Cub count to a safe two. "What is this? A joke phone call?" demanded
Siegle. Within a day, the Phillies had acquired a new ex-Cub, Bill Campbell.
The timing made it seem almost a macho challange.

San Diego general manager Jack McKeon, on the other hand, reacted to the 
efficacy of the Ex-Cub Factor with alarm. He panicked upon learning that
his off-season trades for Summers, Lefferts, and Martinez negated
all the millions he had spend(t) for Goose Gossage. "You've got me worried,"
he admitted to a caller the other day. "We were going to play Martinez
against left Handers, but now I don't know. I might see if I can get rid of
one of those S.O.Bs in the next couple of weeks."

That won't be easy. There are already 35 ex-Cubs scattered around the major
leagues, and Cubs general manager Dallas Green has promised there will soon
be more. Caveat ex-Cubo. Let the bearer of ex-Cubs beware.

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