From: spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Subject: Re: A few comments about the Indians so far
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 1992 16:56:44 GMT
Organization: A Slightly Warmer Place Than Dave Kirsch's Winter Wonderland

In <1992Apr14.103427.2543@otago.ac.nz> guilford@otago.ac.nz writes:

>In article <1992Apr13.052332.12671@panix.com>, spira@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira) writes:

>> In <1992Apr13.110504.2528@otago.ac.nz> guilford@otago.ac.nz writes:

>>>Jefferson is three years younger.  Jefferson has been hurt the last
>>>two years.  Jefferson had a very good year in 1989 in Chattanooga, a
>>>pitcher's park.  I don't see any possible basis for this "MUCH" conclusion.

>>Chattanooga is a slight pitchers' park in a hitters' league. His MLE for 1989,
>> his only real full season recently, is .257/.303/.387. Certainly good numbers
>>for a 21 year old, but not quite eye popping stuff when you consider the fact 
>> that he's a first baseman.

>A quibble: he didn't turn 21 until after the season.  Also, I thought
>Chattanooga was more of a pitcher's park.  Jefferson's `89 compares
>pretty favorably with Alvin Davis's `83....

Okay about his age; his birthday was during the major league but not the minor
league season.  From the data I've seen on Chattanooga, it is a pitchers park
relative to the average league park, but its not really an extreme pitchers'
park even in that respect, and the team does play in a hitters' league.  

[Aside 1 - If anybody has better data on Chattanooga, please forward it into
play.  I only have one year of park factors and my impressions of MLEs to go
on]  

[Silly aside - is it pitchers park, pitcher's park, or pitchers' park.  This
has been driving me up the wall, and I can't figure it out.]

>> STATS projections for the two aren't that close. Sorrento projects to a .278/
>> .366/.493; Jefferson projects to a .267/.314/.381.  These projections are
>>totally unfair to Jefferson, of course- Sorrento is projected in the Metrodome
>> while Jefferson is projected in last year's Municipal.

>My confidence in STATS ability to project a player with Jefferson's
>(limited) record is not very high.  

>>But based on Jefferson's career so far, I don't think my expected 75 point OPS
>> difference for this year is unfair at all.

>It may not be unfair, but it's ludicrous.  It's a number out of thin air.
>The Sorrento prediction is tough enough, but at least he's a mature player
>who's been playing full time.  The Jefferson prediction has to be really
>tough.  Then to compare them.  Maybe 75 points is a good "best guess,"
>maybe it isn't, but then maybe the likelihood that it (or anything else)
>is a "good guess" is not that high.

Why is making a prediction based on 1073 plate appearances the same as
making a prediction based on "thin air"?  Yes, its possible that Jefferson's
injuries the last few years have disguised his progress.  But its not like
I'm making a prediction here based on 250 AA plate appearances, as I've seen
others do.  We've seen STATS' projections work well with a lot less data than
we have on Jefferson (see Jeff Bagwell).  We know that MLEs are basically as
useful major league stats in projecting the future (except perhaps for the
walk column).  And as far as Sorrento's projection goes, we have 1726 plate
appearances of data, which is more than we really need.

Obviously, there are some holes in Jefferson's career which make the
projection a little more shaky than Sorrento's.  And yes, the early
twenties are a period when a hitter can still have great periods of growth,
and so its possible that Jefferson has grown has a hitter in ways that have
been invisible to us because of his lack of playing time.  But the projection
is far from ludicrous; its based on a lot of data which in most cases has
proved to be reliable.

Greg  
-- 
  spira@panix.com       "The one-O delivery to Fisk.  He swings.  Long drive,  
 cmcl2!panix!spira      left field!  If it stays fair, it's gone!  Home Run!"  
158-17 Riverside Dr.                     Ned Martin, 10/22/75   
Whitestone NY 11357          (Insert your favorite baseball moment here) 
Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball