From: geoffb@coos.dartmouth.edu (Geoff Bronner)
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections,dartmouth.politics
Subject: Re: Tsongas` chances
Date: 9 Apr 92 17:59:46 GMT
Reply-To: geoffb@Dartmouth.EDU
Organization: Amos Tuck School

In <1992Apr6.153804.29968@news.larc.nasa.gov> luis@icase.edu (Luis Gomes) writes:

>This weekend the press was full of hints and innuendi coming from the
>Tsongas campaign about the possibility of his re-entering the race,
>presumably if Clinton is embarassed badly by Brown in New York. Could
>some of the more seasoned campaign observers care to speculate on his
>chances should that happen, or there is no point in hoping and I can go
>back to sleep for another 4 years?

A 'seasoned' campaign observer I am not, but hey I have an opinion :-)

I missed the noon news but a co-worker told me that Tsongas did hold a
press conference about coming back into the race. I also saw a post in
another newsgroup about some sort of condition he placed on his return
that required some sort of endorsement from the democratic powers that be.

New York was suprise for me. I expected Brown to do a lot better than he
did. In the end Tsongas isn't coming back because Brown embarrassed
Clinton but because Tsongas embarrassed Brown. I think the reason Brown
may have done so badly is because he and Tsongas are still splitting up
the anti-Clinton vote. 

Lets play the 'what if' game now.
What if the Democrats realize that Clinton is tarnished goods and allow
Tsongas to save enough face to get back into the race? If this happened
Tsongas would probably do well enough to push Brown out of all hope for a
nomination. But I really don't think he could catch up with Clinton unless
he got an overwhelming number of super delegates and managed to deadlock
the convention.
To be honest, I'm not sure if he is still trying for a win in '92 or
laying the groundwork for an 'I told you so' campaign in '96. Either way
his chances for the nomination (IMO) aren't that great. If he gets enough
clout put together he might get offered a Veep position or maybe a cabinet
post type of offer but I hope and pray that Tsongas has more pride than
George Bush did in 1980.
If Tsongas loses the nomination and Clinton wins I expect Clinton to lose
horribly and then we get to suffer for 4 more years.

But, WHAT IF Tsongas won the nomination? Asking for an answer to this
question goes beyond mere speculation. Doubling the 'what if' factor
approaches a margin or error greater than 42 (which is, of course, the
meaning of life).

With the Democratic party behind him Tsongas would be able to do what he
did in NH. Get the message out. It seems that once he manages to get his
ideas into someone's head he does pretty well at getting support. His
biggest problem in the last few states he officially ran in was that the
message got buried in a sea of backstabbing and disinformation.
If he had the money that would go with a democratic nomination he might be
able to get to enough people to beat George Bush. I think it would be a
BIG long shot but I still know where my vote would go.
At the very least Tsongas v. Bush might be a close race which would take
away Bush's '88 'landslide' arrogance.

But we are basically f***ed for another 4 years as I see it.

-Geoff
--
geoffb@Dartmouth.EDU  -  Computing Support Consultant, Tuck School of Business
"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not
 be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."
		- United States Constitution, Amendment IX.
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections