From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 January
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 09:12:30 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 006, 01/06/93
10.7 FLUX=131    90-AVG=139        SSN=126      BKI=3432 2222  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B2.7     FLU1=2.7E+06  FLU10=9.9E+03  PKI=3333 3222  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=039,044,026,016,019,012,019,010   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.7   @ 0025UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ 0753UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1425UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1315UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0955UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55427NT @ 0213UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 1824UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1831UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 1117UT  G7-AVG=+079,+029,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1830UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 2216UT  G6-AVG=+096,-001,+039
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,145;SESC:135,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/012,012,015
    KFCST=2233 3322 2233 3322  27DAY-AP=015,011   27DAY-KP=3233 4332 1224 2433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0502-1004UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class subflares
       occurred. Minor spot development occurred in regions 7386
       (S05E01) and 7387 (S24E05). New Region 7395 (N11E72) was
       assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7386 and 7387 may produce isolated C-class flares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. A brief period of minor storming was
       observed at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Active levels are possible
       during the final day of the period due to coronal hole
       effects.

            Event probabilities 07 jan-09 jan

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 jan-09 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/45
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next 48 hours.  On 09 January, effects from a recurrent coronal
       hole could produce minor signal degradations concentrated over
       the high and polar latitudes during the local night sectors.
       Some instabilities are expected to creep into the upper middle
       latitudes as well during the local night hours.  Otherwise,
       propagation should continue near-normal over all regions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S05E02  183  0290 CKO  06  012 BETA
7387  S24E04  181  0150 DAO  08  012 BETA
7388  S07W85  270  0130 DAO  09  007 BETA
7391  S10E51  134  0080 DSO  10  005 BETA
7393  S18W11  196  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7394  S17E08  177  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7395  N11E72  113  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7396  S12E41  144  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7389  S17E22  163                    PLAGE
7390  N12W74  259                    PLAGE
7392  N14W06  191                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 JANUARY TO 09 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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