From: yamauchi@ces.cwru.edu (Brian Yamauchi)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc,alt.politics.elections,alt.politics.bush,alt.politics.libertarian
Subject: Republican Civil War (was Re: Sixteen more years)
Date: 12 Oct 92 18:38:45
Organization: Case Western Reserve University
Distribution: world
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In-reply-to: matt@physics.berkeley.edu's message of 12 Oct 92 10:39:00

In article <MATT.92Oct12103900@physics.berkeley.edu> matt@physics.berkeley.edu (Matt Austern) writes:

>Look at the Republican National Convention; the Republican party is
>very close to tearing itself apart.  The various wings of the party
>(the small-government folks, the moderates, the anti-communist
>neoconservatives, the far-right religious groups) have essentially no
>commonality, and no trust for each other.  The only thing holding the
>Republican coalition together is that the party keeps winning
>elections; once that glue is removed, it will be very hard to keep the
>party from fragmenting.

If Bush wins the election, I expect to see business as usual in '96
election, with the GOP nominating another moderate conservative like
Bush with few if any defining principles (e.g. Baker, Dole).

If Bush loses this election -- especially if he loses big, consider
the effect on the various groups mentioned above:

The Moderates:  Lose credibility.  Bush was a moderate before he was
nominated, and this has forever associated him with the centrist wing
in Republican minds.  Even when he spouts ultraconservative rhetoric,
he doesn't seem to believe it.

The Anti-Communists:  Are already largely irrelevant.  Who do they
have left to fight?  Cuba?  China?  Albania?

This sets the stage for a major power struggle between the Social
Conservatives (Pat Buchanan, Jesse Helms, Jerry Fallwell) and the
Economic Conservatives (Jack Kemp, Milton Friedman, William Weld).
How this conflict is resolved could determine the political landscape
for the next decade or two.  I can think of a number of potential
outcomes:

1) The Economic Conservatives win.

If a Clinton administration provides widespread prosperity over the
next four years, then the Democrats are likely to hold the White House
anyway.  If, as I think is more likely, the economic recovery remains
weak (or even reverses), then I think a Kemp/Weld '96 campaign has a
very good chance of retaking the Presidency with an economic plan
based on *real* measures to cut spending and revitalize the economy
through free market initiatives (as opposed to Reagan/Bush
borrow-and-spend economics).

2) The Social Conservatives win.

Again, if the Days of Wine and Roses return by 1996, the Democrats
will likely hold onto the White House.  If not, I can imagine a number
of possible outcomes:

2a) The economic conservatives grimace and bear it, remaining within
the GOP and casting their votes for Buchanan/Bennett in '96.  In that
case, I think there is good chance of an extremely conservative
president being elected, if he can *effectively* use issues such as
"welfare mothers" and "family values" to focus voter discontentment
and anger against the Democrats and their beneficiaries.  

(Bush fails when using these tactics, at least partly because he is
unconvincing and uninspiring.  Buchanan, on the other hand, is a
*much* more effective speaker who *does* believe in what he is saying,
and may be able to make these charges stick.)

I consider the concept of President Patrick Buchanan more than a
little unappealing, but social conservatives may disagree...

2b) The economic conservatives defect to the Democratic Party.  This
would likely give the Democrats long-term control of both the Congress
and the White House.  Before liberals get too excited, though, they
should remember that a large influx of ex-Republicans into their party
will shift the center of the party substantially to the right (at
least on economic issues).  In this case, I would expect to see
Democrats such as Paul Tsongas or Bill Bradley in the White House --
and unrepentant left-liberals such as Harkin and Simon left out in the
cold...

2c) The economic conservatives decide to either form their own party
or defect to the Libertarian Party.  If this occurs, it will
permanently alter the American political landscape.  An economically
conservative, socially liberal party will likely attract some voters
(e.g.  pro-choice businesswomen, minority small-business owners,
entertainment executives, etc.) from the the Democratic Party as well.

If this new party (call it the Libertarian Party) attracts enough
voters from both parties, it may well supplant the Republican Party.
In this case, the two-party system may remain intact, but with the
Democrats and the Libertarians as the major parties and the
Republicans relegated to minor party status.

If the new party fails to attract sufficient voters, it may end up
fading into obscurity, leaving the American voters faced with the
choice of voting for economically liberal Democrats or socially
conservative Republicans for a long time to come.

If the new party attracts enough voters to reach relative parity with
the other parties, but not enough to eclipse either, then this will
result in a radically different political environment.  With three
major parties, we will have a de facto pseudo-parliamentary system
where coalitions will need to be built (either on long-term or an
issue-by-issue basis).  Suppose the Congressional breakdown is 1/3
GOP, 1/3 DP, and 1/3 LP.  One can imagine a GOP-LP coalition
supporting free market initiatives and a DP-LP coalition protecting
civil liberties.  (On the other hand, one can also imagine a GOP-DP
coalition attempting to perpetuate the status quo.)

In any case, it should be interesting to see what happens...
--
_______________________________________________________________________________

Brian Yamauchi			Case Western Reserve University
yamauchi@alpha.ces.cwru.edu	Department of Computer Engineering and Science
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