From: niepornt@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (David Marc Nieporent)
Subject: Re: Tigers in 93? (Was: Re: Brewers in 93?)
Originator: news@nimaster
Organization: Princeton University
Date: Mon, 16 Nov 1992 15:54:22 GMT

In <1992Nov15.234823.24198@netcom.com> arrow@netcom.com (Les Arrow) writes:
>In article <1992Nov15.144224.4578@cs.wayne.edu> dfl@math.wayne.edu (David Frohardt-Lane) writes:

>>>--> The difference between the Brewers and the Tigers is the Brewers aren't
>>>    expected to do anything to improve their team this offseason. Meanwhile
>>>    the Tigers with new money will almost certainly be looking for free agent
>>>    pitchers. They're my choice in the Greg Maddux sweepstakes. So, 

>>Don't count on it.  There's been a lot of talk about Bosio, Swindell and
>>Smiley, but not much about getting Greg Maddux.  

>Well, that's what speculation is all about. If they signed two out of the
>three you mention, they'd still be much better off than I can ever remember.

Two out of three would bump them up from pathetic pitching to below
average pitching.  It would certainly be an improvment, but they'd still
need to dig up three other starters.  Is Gullickson one?  Why?  That
still leaves 2 more.

I think they were *lucky* this year; I think their pitching wasn't as
good as it looked.  I mean, their best starter was Doherty, who had a
3.88 ERA, allowed *131* hits in 116 innings, and struck out a grand
total of 37 batters (vs 25 walks.)

>>They will not "suddenly stop producing runs", but since most of their
>>regulars are over 29, they will probably decline considerably.  Especially
>>if Whitaker isn't re-signed.

>I don't see how you can justify that statement. They scored a lot of runs
>last year. Are you telling me that in 6 months, they suddenly are going to
>appear with canes. The fact is that with most players, declines in
>production are steady. They will still have one of the best offenses in the
>league, next year.

Going down fast.  Everyone is a year older, and this is an old team
already. Whitaker, Phillips, Deer, and Tettleton, their best players,
are all on the wrong side of 30.

Out of their other players, Livingstone and Cuyler are worthless
offesnively, and that might be being generous.

Fryman is a quality player, and he's just 24.

Fielder is dropping like a rock.  His 3 year trends:
HR 	SLG	OBP	OPS
51	.592	.377	969
44	.513	.347	860
35	.458	.325	783

And who's their DH?

>>>>Cecil Fielder?  Can he decline *again*?  He's not much above average at
>>>>this point.  And their outfield isn't anything special.

>>>--> Yeah. Maybe he'll only get 120 RBIs next year.

>>Yeah, and eat up 500 outs.  

>Rickey Henderson, in his MVP season, ate up 457 outs. Anyone who can drive
>in 120 runs and hit 40 HRs could play on my team.

I'll be surprised if Fielder ever hits 40 HRs again, unless he moves to
Fulton or Wrigley or something.  And anyone *can* drive in 120 runs in
that lineup with that many at bats.

As for Rickey, this is sort of odd.  What is this, Reaganomics math?  He
had 489 ABs - 159 hits = 330 outs, + 10 cs + 2 sf = 342 outs.  Oh yeah,
plus 13 GIDP.

Fielder, on the other hand, has eaten over 475 outs each of the last two
years.  Even in his *good* year, in 1990, he still ate almost 450 outs.

-- 
David M. Nieporent   | Mike Mussina 1993 AL Cy Young Winner
niepornt@phoenix.    |------------------------------------ 
   princeton.edu     | "I still believe in a place called Hope."
Clinton/Gore '92.  Don't stop thinking about tomorrow.