From: mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers)
Subject: Re: AFC TEAMS STINK
Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services  (408 241-9760 guest) 
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 1992 19:08:35 GMT

In article <26485@optima.cs.arizona.edu> curtis@optima.UUCP (Curtis E. Dyreson) writes:

>From article <1992Nov15.060705.17498@netcom.com>, by mzimmers@netcom.com (Michael Zimmers):

>> Some coincidence.  Eight in a row, most in a blowout.

>Consider, for a moment the strings "NNNNNNNN" and "NANANNAA".
>Choosing from a random collection of strings of length 8 over
>the alphabet {N,A}, what is the probability of choosing each
>of the above strings?  Exactly the same.  Yes, it is a mere 
>coincidence.

That is a terrible application of statistics.  Rather than explain
why you're so out of bounds, I'll hope for the moment you're joking.
If you're serious, I'll re-enter the fray.

>> In some cases, that is true.  In many others, it is false.

>Show me the many others over the past 8 years.  Let's look at the
>NFC championship games (from memory so my facts may be off, here's your cue
>Ed)

Mine is from memory as well.

>Clear blowouts: `84 49ers, 

The championship was 23-0.  The Big Dance was 38-16.  Almost the 
same margin.

`85 Bears, 

Don't remember the scores, but both games were wipes.

>`86 Giants, 

I'm pretty sure the NFC championship was less of a smear than the SB.

>`89 49ers, 

Both of the Niners' NFC games were closer than the Big Dance.

>`91 Redskins

One-sided all the way.

>Close Games: `87 Redskins, `90 Giants

But one-sided in the SB.

>Not sure: `88 49ers

This is the only data point that countermands a notion of NFC superiority.
The Niners ripped Minnesota and LA, then bumbled around in the Big Party
until Montana led them on The Drive.

So what does this tell us?  That in general, the NFC playoffs are at
least as even as the Big Dance.  From this I construe that there are
typically two or three teams as good as, and at least one team better than,
the best that the AFC can offer.

>> is going to assert that the two conferences are comparable, than less 
>> is to be expected from the NFC also-rans than from the AFC champ.  

>Why?  In most of the last 8 years, there has been one great team in the NFL, 
>not 2.  The problem here is with your expectations.

I look at this a bit differently.  In most of the past 11 years, one NFC
team stands above all other NFL teams.  [I think you agree with this.]
In addition, the SB dominance of that teams, relative to the dominance
in their conference playoffs, suggests that there is at least one other
(and possibly more) NFC team as good as, or better than, the best of the
AFC.

That meets my definition of NFC dominance.  Perhaps not yours.

I'd be less stubborn on this note if there had been considerable doubt
as to whether the AFC had been sending its best each year.  But as near
as I can remember, with the possible exception of '85, the AFC representative
in the Big Dance has been their best and their brightest.  And they
still get routinely stomped.
-- 
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