From: trif@bike.rad.washington.edu (To Run In Fear)
Subject: Re: Election Results 11/3/92
Organization: University of Washington, Seattle WA
	<Bx6CAM.AxI@ns1.nodak.edu> <1992Nov4.103501.23471@Princeton.EDU>
	<1992Nov4.161559.16095@mdd.comm.mot.com>
	<1992Nov4.193901.14303@m.cs.uiuc.edu>
	<TRIF.92Nov5034615@bike.rad.washington.edu> <adams.720979002@spssig>
	<1992Nov5.182822.5967@aio.jsc.nasa.gov>
Distribution: na
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 1992 08:34:09 GMT

In article <1992Nov5.182822.5967@aio.jsc.nasa.gov> walker@superboy.jsc.nasa.gov (Doug Walker) writes:
   In article <adams.720979002@spssig>, adams@spss.com (Steve Adams) writes:
   |> trif@bike.rad.washington.edu (To Run In Fear) writes:
   |> 
   |> >Bill Clinton -- Democrat          43,713,885
   |> >George Bush -- Republican         38,150,812
   |> >Ross Perot -- Independent         19,228,530
   |> >Andre Marrou -- Libertarian          234,413 <----- This is a disaster...
   |> >Bo Gritz -- Populist                  95,640
   |> >Lenora Fulani -- New Alliance         70,810
   |> >John Hagelin -- Natural Law           31,408
   |> >Howard Phillips -- Wash. Taxpayers    29,677
   |> >Lyndon LaRouche -- Independent        25,063
   |> >Ron Daniels -- Independent            24,997
   |> 
   |> I had hoped better for Marrou.  He was hurt by Perot and the close race
   |> between Bush and Clinton.  But to get only .2% of the vote...ouch.
   |> 

   Marrou was hurt BAD by Perot.  Perot likely got 99% of the protest
   vote.

It appears that this is false, at least in Washington state.  I have appended
to the end of this posting the vote totals reported as of November 4th for
Washington state races in which Libertarians were involved.  In the statewide
races, the Libertarians consistently garnered about 50,000 to 70,000 votes
regardless of the presence or absence of other 3rd party or independent
candidates in the same race.  In fact, in the Lt. Governor's race, Isenberg
got his 66,000 in spite of the ultimate protest vote candidate, Absolutely
Nobody, being on the same ballot.  Analysis of the votes garnered by other
3rd party or independent candidates shows that their vote totals are highly
variable, in contrast to the consistent totals for Libertarian candidates
in statewide races.  Votes for Libertarian candidates do not appear to be
largely protest votes.  The only logical reason for Marrou's extremely poor
6,000 votes from Washington state is that people who normally vote Libertarian
defected in the Presidential race to vote for one of the big three, for 
whatever reasons they might have.  I suspect they defected to Perot, or else
the Libertarians never would have garnered the nearly million that they got
in '88.  But I don't think that it is true that 3/4 of the Libertarian vote
is a protest vote (in Washington anyway) based on how statewide Libertarian
candidates did in their races.

Please note that I am not a member of any political party.  I am a person
who has a perverse interest in third party movements and their effects on
elections.

President of the United States -- Washington state totals
  Clinton -- Democrat		830,832 (44%)
  Bush -- Republican		589,545 (32%)
  Perot -- Independent		448,657 (24%)
  Marrou -- Libertarian		  6,203 (0%)
  Gritz -- Populist		  3,903 (0%)
  Hagelin -- Natural Law	  2,025 (0%)
  Phillips -- Wash. Taxpayers	  1,807 (0%)
  Fulani -- New Alliance	  1,493 (0%)
  Daniels -- Independent	    692 (0%)
  LaRouche -- Indpendent	    656 (0%)
  Warren -- Socialist Workers	    438 (0%)

Lt. Governor -- Washington state
  Pritchard -- Republican	898,690 (49%)
  Kelley -- Democrat		745,944 (41%)
  Nobody -- Independent		130,114 (7%)
  Isenberg -- Libertarian	 66,337 (4%)

Land Commissioner -- Washington state
  Belcher -- Democrat		961,449 (53%)
  Anderson -- Republican	801,396 (44%)
  McCord -- Libertarian		 66,130 (4%)

State Auditor -- Washington state
  Sonntag -- Democrat		900,653 (51%)
  Reed -- Republican		794,888 (45%)
  Rathjen -- Libertarian	 79,533 (4%)

Secretary of State -- Washington state
  Munro -- Republican		1,013,416 (55%)
  Dixon -- Democrat		  762,299 (42%)
  Willey -- Libertarian		   58,131 (3%)

State legislature 9th district House Position 1
  Sheahan -- Republican		18,295 (51%)
  Walker -- Democrat		16,007 (45%)
  Gearhart -- Libertarian	 1,334 (4%)

State legislature 17th district House Position 2
  Myers -- Democrat		23,183 (58%)
  Lucia -- Republican		15,272 (38%)
  Becker -- Libertarian		 1,579 (4%)

State legislature 27th district Senate
  Wojahn -- Democrat		23,469 (87%)
  Blachly -- Libertarian	 3,605 (13%)

State legislature 27th district House Position 2
  Wang -- Democrat		22,785 (84%)
  Shepard -- Libertarian	 4,355 (16%)

State legislature 48th district House Position 1
  Reams -- Republican		24,275 (59%)
  Tilley -- Democrat		12,833 (31%)
  Isenberg -- Libertarian	 2,199 (5%)
  Hedegard -- Independent	 1,571 (4%)

Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections,alt.politics.perot