From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 1992 10:18:20 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                28 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 363, 12/28/92
10.7 FLUX=127.2  90-AVG=139        SSN=112      BKI=2032 5454  BAI=022
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=7.3E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2032 5555  PAI=029
  BOU-DEV=015,004,026,015,104,062,083,054   DEV-AVG=045 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.3   @ 0651UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.1   @ 0351UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0820UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2040UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1055UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55418NT @ 2354UT   BOUTF-MIN=55357NT @ 1754UT  BOUTF-AVG=55401NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+139NT@ 1843UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-037NT@ 1259UT  G7-AVG=+072,+022,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+163NT@ 1845UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-027NT@ 2226UT  G6-AVG=+091,-003,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,125;SESC:130,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2224 3111 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=015,009   27DAY-KP=3344 3322 3333 2221
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0655UTC;**SWEEP:IV=1@0659UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7376 (N15W47), a
       small (30 millionths) CRO group, produced today's only flare:
       a C2.3/1B at 0651Z. The event was accompanied by weak Type II
       and Type IV sweeps. The largest group on the disk, 7381
       (N05W10), continued to show steady growth today but was stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic ranged from quiet to storm levels. Conditions
       bounced from quiet to active from the beginning of the period
       through 1200Z. Since 1200Z mid-latitudes have been at active
       to minor storm levels and high-latitudes fluctuated from minor
       to severe storm levels. The most likely source for this distur-
       bance  is a  filament that  erupted from  disk center  on 22
       December.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled. The current disturbance is
       expected to subside some time in the next 12 hours.

            Event probabilities 29 dec-31 dec

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 dec-31 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions deteriorated over the last 24 hours to
       slightly below normal.  Minor signal degradation has occurred over the
       high and polar latitude paths in the form of enhanced fading and
       multipath activity due to increased levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity.  Conditions are expected to continue below normal over the
       next 24 hours and should affect the middle to polar latitude paths
       (with greatest emphasis on the high and polar latitude paths).  Some
       improvements are expected on 30 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7374  S11W57  001  0120 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7376  N15W48  352  0040 DAO  04  007 BETA
7378  N11W38  342  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7379  S10W12  316  0060 CSO  04  005 BETA
7381  N04W10  314  0240 DSO  10  018 BETA
7383  S05W12  316  0020 CRO  05  009 BETA
7385  S23W56  360  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7372  S12W76  020                    PLAGE
7382  S18E10  294                    PLAGE
7384  N02W40  344                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 DECEMBER TO 31 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7362 S06   176
7355 S19   203


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0640 0651 0702 7376  N14W40 C2.5  1B               II/IV


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
28/B0655             A0659       N14W40   RSP    C2.5   22  1  1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **
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