From: fusco@ucsu.Colorado.EDU (Andrew Fusco)
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections
Subject: Re: A guess at the electoral votes (was Re: Some state polls)
Keywords: electoral college, electoral votes, poll, polls, states
Date: 9 Sep 92 18:18:31 GMT
Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder

king@cogsci.ucsd.EDU (Jonathan King) writes:

>CLINTON LOCKS		CLINTON ADVANTAGE

>State	EVs		State	EVs

>AR	 6		CA	54	; the biggie
>DC	 3		IA	 7
>WV	 5		WA	11
>HI	 4		OR	 7
>MN	10		TN	11
>WI	11		VT	 3
>RI	 4
>MA	12
>MD	10
>NY	33

>Total	98		Total	93

>GRAND CLINTON TOTAL	191		; note that this is just Dukakis
>					; in 1988 plus CA, VT, AR, and TN

This makes perfect sense to me. Regional politics haven't changed much in
the past 4 years, so Dukakis states will certainly be Clinton states. I'd
look to TN as a state that eventually will slide back to Bush. Bush won by
a 12 pt. margin here last time, and Gore, after all, is only the VP candidate.

Although I think these states will probably go to Clinton, I'd like to see
some polling data from NY, MA and RI. Without a Northeastern candidate like
Dukakis, who won MA by a rather embarrassing 7 pts, perhaps the races there
may be closer than expected. If Bush is lagging by only 10 or less in any of
them currently, then the races there may be close.

>BUSH LOCKS		BUSH ADVANTAGE

>State	EVs		State	EVs

>UT	 5		ME	 4		
>ID	 4		NH	 4
>AK	 3		VA	13
>SC	 8		NE	 5
>MS	 7		KS	 8
>MT	 3		AZ	 8	; a loss here could be death
>WY	 3		TX	32	; a loss here is almost instant death
>IN	12		FL	25
>ND	 3		NJ	15
>SD	 3		NM	 5	; I've heard of problems in NM (!)
>AL	 7		LA	 9	; same here in LA
>NV	 4		NC	14	; NC is worth more EVs than before
>			DE	 3

>Total	62		Total	145

>GRAND BUSH TOTAL	207

I agree here, except for a few exceptions. Working with the Dukakis numbers,
I see that Dukakis lost MT, SD by only 6 pts, and NM by only 4pts! I'd
expect NM to be a Clinton state, and MT and SD to be only leaning Bush. On
the other hand, I think FL is surely a Republican state, as will be TX.

>SWING STATES

>LEAN CLINTON		LEAN BUSH	

>State	EVs		State	EVs

>MO	11		OK	 8	; MO may be stronger for Clinton
>CT	 8		CO	 8	; CO is overlooked as a swing state
>PA	23		GA	13	; both PA and GA are very important
>IL	22		OH	21	; IL may be stronger for Clinton
>MI	18		KY	 8	; KY reports early...stomaches flutter?
>					
>Total	82		Total	58

The important part right here: I wouldn't worry about OK, KY, GA. They are
certainly Bush states. I'd also put CT on the other side as well. But then,
I'd say IL is most certainly a Clinton state this year. This leaves 5 states
to decide the entire election: MO, PA, MI, CO, OH.

This makes 250 EV for Bush, 
           207 EV for Clinton, with 
            81 EV undecided.

OK. My guess is that CO and MI will both go to Bush narrowly, by 3-4% margins.
    PA will probably go to Clinton, as will MO, with equally thin margins.
    That leaves OH, which gave Bush an 11 pt. victory last time. This will
    go to Bush as well. That makes my prediction as of today:

    Bush:    297 votes
    Clinton: 241 votes

I'd like comments as well, but I'd really enjoy seeing poll results from
certain states, including MO, IL, PA, MI, OH, NY, MA, RI, NJ and CT.

-ACF
Newsgroups: alt.politics.elections