From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 December
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 25 Dec 1992 09:07:58 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                24 DECEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 359, 12/24/92
10.7 FLUX=136.3  90-AVG=139        SSN=127      BKI=0223 2231  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=9.0E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=0223 2231  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,017,011,024,015,013,027,006   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.9   @ 1301UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 1959UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2240UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1600UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1930UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1525UT   BOUTF-MIN=55391NT @ 1906UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+096NT@ 1902UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 1035UT  G7-AVG=+075,+029,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1902UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-011NT@ 0146UT  G6-AVG=+108,-006,+021
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,125;SESC:130,125,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,025/018,035,040
    KFCST=1123 4455 4455 6443  27DAY-AP=004,005   27DAY-KP=2112 2211 1122 1122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0708-1359UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7374 (S09W06)
       continued to decay, while the other spotted Regions were
       dull. An interesting quiescent prominence is now visible,
       perched on the southeast limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly quiet for another 12-18 hours.
       Day's end should bring the onset of a disturbance spawned by
       the disappearance of a large filament early on 22 Dec. Another
       filament disappearance, this on 23 Dec., should prolong this
       active to minor storm activity through the end of the period.

            Event probabilities 25 dec-27 dec

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 dec-27 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/30
                        Minor Storm           40/50/50
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           50/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/35/35

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Conditions are expected to deteriorate on 26 December
       and remain below normal through about 28 December.  Propagation
       will be least stable over the high and polar latitude paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7370  S09W51  048  0070 CSO  04  006 BETA
7372  S12W21  018  0010 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7374  S09W05  002  0250 DAI  08  027 BETA
7376  N17E07  350  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7378  N12E14  343  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7379  S11E41  316  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7381  N07E44  313  0040 DAO  05  007 BETA
7382  S15E59  298  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7369  S07W61  058                    PLAGE
7380  S17W71  068                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 DECEMBER TO 27 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


**  End of Daily Report  **
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