From: nlu@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Nelson Lu)
Subject: Re: Looking Back From 2992 - The disastrous 21st century
Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University.
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 1993 04:04:31 GMT

In article <C0M5Er.7s9@world.std.com> afung@world.std.com (Albert K Fung) writes:

>1. In the history of human civilization, there has been a lot of cultures. 
>   Quite a few were very distinguish, but not many ascended to the position of 
>   dominance.

True, but only trivially, IMO.  Since dominant cultures have been so rare, it
is not surprising, statistically, to see that the few rare dominant cultures
soon decline out of dominance, never to regain "dominance," due to the inherent
difficulty in the definition that you gave for a dominant culture.  But I am
not sure that this definition of dominance is that useful, since it pretty
much limited "dominance" to ancient cultures.
>
>2. I do recognize that ups and downs are an inseparable part of a culture. 
>   However all great cultures seem to share a common characteristic - at 
>   certain point in time they rise to the zenith of their power and influence
>   and then suddenly and inexplicably, they descend to the abyss, never to 
>   return to the pinnacle of their prowess.

However, they can also return to a point of respectability; for example,
one can argue that France had the zenith of its power and influence during the
lifetime of Napolean Bonaparte, and then, suddenly, with the fall of Napolean,
descend to the "abyss" (the forced restoration of the Bourbon monarchy), and
it, indeed, never returned to the pinnacle of their prowess.  But you seem to
imply more than that, that great cultures would fall and just fall apart.  In
France's case, it has rebounded quite nicely, although, obviously, it does not
dominate European politics.

>I think the Bronze Age Hellenic civilization, epitomized by the Mycenaeans, 
>was not a dominant culture, despite the Homeric glorification. It was an
>Aegean power at best.

I think this definition is arbitrary, as seen below...

>I consider this period the ascend of the Hellenic civilization. Alexander 
>of Mecedonea was the one who brought it to its zenith. It remained a world 
>power for several hundred years until its demise.

And, by our standards, the empire of Alexander the Great was "a middle-eastern
power at best."  It certainly had no influence on China or the American
continents, and it even had very little influence to its west and north.
(Pyrrhus, the King of Epirus, a relative of Alexander, did try to (and failed)
to conquer Rome and Carthage, but that was not Alexander's effort, nor did it
succeed.)

>
>>The European example is also enlightening.  Recall that the Carolingian 
>>mini-renaissance was blotted out by pressure from the Vikings.  Once that 
>>had passed, the lights began to come back on in Europe.  

>This was just the normal ups and downs towards the final ascend.

Which was?  Again, I think this is a bit arbitrary.

To bring this article back to relevance in the newsgroups posted, I offer these
points:

1.	Al seems to indicate that the cultures can have only one pinnacle
	point, and away from that, the decline is inevitable, and the culture
	would never recover from it.  In the Chinese example, I don't think
	that was true.  One can perhaps say that the Eastern Han Dynasty
	achieved one pinnacle for Chinese power, immediately following the
	defeat of the Northern Hsiung-nu by Do4 Hsien4, as the Hsiung-nu (at
	least the Southern Hsiung-nu) and the Western Territories (the city-
	states in modern-day Sinkiang) were brought under Han authority.
	Then, suddenly, due to corruption within and due to poor strategy with
	fighting with the Chion1 in modern-day Kansu and Chinhai, Eastern Han
	collapsed, leading into the Three Kingdoms period and then the short
	unification under the Chin Dynasty, which soon fell apart as well,
	leaving a dark age of warfare as never seen on Chinese soil perviously,
	a mess that would not be settled until some three centuries later
	under the Sui Dynasty.  Under the subsequent Tang Dynasty, the process
	is reversed; and China reached another pinnacle during the reigns of
	Li Shih-min through Li Long-chi, interrupted by the reign of terror
	during the brief Chou Dynasty, established by Wu Jao, and the
	ineffective reign of her son Li Shien.

2.	Nevertheless, a contrary example to Al's argument hasn't happened
	ever since the loss of central power, starting with the An1-She3 wars,
	by the Tang imperial government, causing an eventual collapse of the
	regime itself, and eventually a subsequent reunification under Sung
	Dynasty did not bring China back into anywhere close to the pinnacle
	of glory during the early Tang; yet, I don't believe that the process
	was irreversible.  The power of the early Ming was certainly great, and
	one can only imagine the potential that the dynasty would have had if
	it had an emperor the caliber of Li Shi-Minh as its founder, instead of
	the tyrant Ju Yuen2-Chang1.  That power is well demonstrated in the
	voyages of Cheng4 He2.  And one can certainly argue, although not on
	all that strong basis, that the Ching Dynasty, although the ruling
	family was of Manchurian origin, nevertheless brought China to a
	pinnacle, as far as the sphere of influence, which extended from
	Korea to modern-day CIS central Asia, and from southern Siberia to
	the Indo-China peninsula, bringing even Tibet and Mongolia, which
	were never quite subjugated by even the Tang, into more-or-less direct
	central control.

3.	The rise and fall of the Soviet Union might indeed fit well with Al's
	model, as it appears that Russia, even if it rebounds to prosperity,
	will never come anywhere close to the international prestige that the
	former Soviet Union held in its full glory, since World War II.
	And it is hard to see China, with its inherent problems, including the
	population size, become a dominant power again, particularly with the
	emergence of the Japanese economic power, along with hints of a
	military resurgence, but China can nevertheless rebound to be as
	strong in position as the rebounded Japan and Germany.