From: sloan@cis.uab.edu (Kenneth Sloan)
Newsgroups: rec.games.chess
Subject: Re: 50 out of 100?
Date: 16 Apr 92 22:49:11 GMT
Organization: CIS, University of Alabama at Birmingham

In article <1992Apr16.213719.14563@cs.brown.edu> jhc@iris.UUCP (James H. Coombs) writes:
>... So, I was trying to get at
>the idea that the rating system does not help us predict the outcome of
>individual games.  Or, better, it tells us that A has a 1/4 chance of
>beating B in the game they are about to start.  It does not mean that A
>WILL lose to B. And it does not tell us that A WILL lose to B UNLESS A
>plays in a special better-beater style.

You have promulgated a straw man that no one else believes.  Glad as we
are that you don't believe this - why in the world do you think it is
something to be disproven?


>  Now there's an issue that I
>have not seen in books.  What if A varies his behavior because of
>knowledge of the probabilities?  Coins don't do that.

Ah - but game players do.  Perhaps some Game Theory would be in order.

>Which is? 

(roughly) "The Rating of Chessplayers" Arpad Elo.  USCF probably still
carries it.  After you read it, Louis Blair will tell you what's wrong
with it.

>... Is it really worth a read?

I think so.

>  I feel that I have a novice's
>understanding of the rating system to go along with my novice's
>understanding of chess.  What will I get out of this book?

An appreciation of what your rating does, and does not, mean.  Besides -
you've said many times that you just love to learn from books. 

>
>Another anecdote.  I won 1/2 point from 3 games with 1700-1800 players
>last weekend.

Rather more than your rating indicates you *should* have, eh?
Congratulations on your 14xx Performance Rating. 

>...I
>picked up some points, but otherwise I find no ratings significance in
>this. 

Why not?  You performed above the rating system's expectations for you.
So, to save face, the rating system raises it's expectations.  Not too
quickly, mind you - you might disappoint next weekend, and the rating
system doesn't want to look *too* foolish of impetuous.  Keep this up
and you'll crack 1100 RealSoonNow!

Since we're swapping ratings successes - I must report that I now have
firm anecdotal evidence that playing at Queen odds against children is
guaranteed to improve your (well, my) game).  I haven't played OTB in
quite awhile, and expected my rustiness to put another dent in my
10-year low rating of 1777.  Huzzah, by round 3 I was 2.5 - 0.5 (against
1900-2000 competition) and playing on board 1 against a local master.
I absorbed my lesson, but still went home with about 50 brand new rating
points.  

I can hardly wait until my 8yr old's rating cracks 1200 so that we can
play in the same tournaments for a change.  Driving to Boaz and beyond
has been cutting into my activity.

Keep playing, Mr. Coombs - but please....ignore your rating for awhile;
it just diverts energy from more important things in life.



-- 
Kenneth Sloan                   Computer and Information Sciences
sloan@cis.uab.edu               University of Alabama at Birmingham
(205) 934-2213                  115A Campbell Hall, UAB Station 
(205) 934-5473 FAX              Birmingham, AL 35294-1170