From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 September
Apparently-To: sci-space-news@ames.arc.nasa.gov
Followup-To: sci.space
Organization: University of Lethbridge
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1992 02:57:41 GMT

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                              03 SEPTEMBER, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 247, 09/03/92
10.7 FLUX=107.0  90-AVG=124        SSN=081      BKI=3675 5434  BAI=050
BGND-XRAY=B2.0     FLU1=1.8E+06  FLU10=1.7E+04  PKI=3676 5444  PAI=053
  BOU-DEV=036,143,248,113,077,041,039,044   DEV-AVG=092 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 2350UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 0513UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0415UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1910UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1420UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1510UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55445NT @ 2345UT   BOUTF-MIN=55371NT @ 1648UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+142NT@ 0803UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-068NT@ 0847UT  G7-AVG=+074,+062,+003
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 0853UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-033NT@ 1523UT  G6-AVG=+084,-006,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:108,108,105;SESC:105,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=035,035,018/025,015,015
    KFCST=3445 4444 4344 4443  27DAY-AP=043,022   27DAY-KP=3347 7443 2455 3333
 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**MAJSTRM;**SWEEP:II=2@0931-0934UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@1442-1453UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became low today.  A class C1.3 flare erupted at 23:50
UT.  All of the other flares remained below C-class levels.

     Region 7272 (S12W66) continued to grow in size throughout the day.  A
strong arch filament system has developed in this region.  Additional growth
is expected with C-class flare activity more probable from this group over
the next 24 to 72 hours.

     Two Type II sweep frequency events were observed today.  The first was
observed at 09:31 UT.  The second occurred at 14:42 UT.  Both events were
rated as moderate in intensity and fairly brief in duration.  There were no
optical or x-ray correlations with this activity.

     Two new regions were numbered today:  Regions 7273 (S17W02) and 7274
(N08E18) were both born on-disk.  There are now a total of four spotted
regions.  Of these, Regions 7272 and 7270 have the greatest potential for
weak C-class flare activity.  Region 7270 has been stable over the last 24
hours.

     Solar activity is expected to be low.  C-class flare activity is
possible from Region 7272.

     The geomagnetic field became disturbed today and ranged from active to
severe storm levels.  Minor to major storming commenced near 06:00 UT and
peaked at severe storm levels (K-index of 7) at 09:00 UT for a brief
interval.  Conditions then levelled out at active to minor storm levels for
the remainder of the day.  A well placed coronal hole is the likely source of
this disturbance.  The field is expected to continue at active to minor storm
levels over the next 24 to 48 hours.  Periods of major storming will remain
possible over the high and some middle latitude regions.

     Auroral activity became significantly enhanced.  Preliminary reports
indicate activity was visible well south of Laramie Wyoming (41 N), possibly
extending into the 35 N latitude range.  Although rather weak and diffuse at
these latitudes, the activity was apparently periodically luminous enough to
be spotted under dark skies.  Other reports of sporadically strong activity
were received throughout much of the southern Canadian provinces.  The Middle
Latitude Auroral Activity Watch has been upgraded to a Warning and will
remain valid until 19:00 UT on 05 September when it will either be updated or
allowed to expire.  Conditions are expected to remain sporadically favorable
for middle latitude observations of auroral activity throughout the next 24
to 48 hours.

     HF propagation conditions varied from well below normal to well above
normal.  The onset of the geomagnetic storming coincided with a significant
enhancement in oblique propagation over many regions.  Perhaps most notable
was significant enhancement on frequencies up to approximately 20 MHz in the
Australian region.  Reception of strong Medium Wave signals from North
America were also reported at the time of these signal enhancements over the
Australian region.  These conditions appear to have been isolated to
night-sector signal paths.  The negative phase of the storm activity was
observed later in the UT day.  Polar and high latitude signal paths became
significantly degraded to nearly useless between 12:00 UT and 18:00 UT.
Minor improvements were observed during the last six hours of the UT day,
although significant degradation continues to affect the polar and high
latitude regions.  Middle latitude signal paths have suffered moderate signal
degradation, while low latitudes have experienced minor signal degradation
and are only slightly below normal.  Conditions are expected to continue
moderately degraded over most regions.  Moderate to strong fading,
absorption, and multipathing will affect most signals.  As well, MUFs will be
reduced by as much as 30 to 40 percent below normal for the next 24 to 48
hours.  Notable improvements are not expected until 06 September for middle
latitudes and 07 September for the higher latitude signal paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7270  S09W01  035  0100 CAO  10  021 BETA
7272  S12W66  100  0180 DAO  09  016 BETA
7273  S17W02  036  0010 AXX  01  003 ALPHA
7274  N08E18  016  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7267  N03W85  119
7271  S09W12  046
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 SEPTEMBER TO 06 SEPTEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 SEPTEMBER
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0325 0326 0326                          740
 0931      0934                                     II
 1442      1453                                     II
 2041 2041 2041                          190


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 SEPTEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
03/B0931             A0934                RSP               2
03/B1442             A1453                RSP               2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
52   N14W13 S07W40 N05W49 N25W19  065  ISO   POS   020 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **
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