From: steinly@topaz.ucsc.edu (Steinn Sigurdsson)
Newsgroups: sci.environment
Subject: Re: Population growth and cultural destruction (Re: Nasty ...)
Date: 11 Dec 92 10:42:07
Organization: Lick Observatory/UCO
	<STEINLY.92Dec10134815@topaz.ucsc.edu>
	<1992Dec11.174941.2844@vexcel.com>
NNTP-Posting-Host: topaz.ucsc.edu
In-reply-to: dean@vexcel.com's message of 11 Dec 92 17:49:41 GMT

In article <1992Dec11.174941.2844@vexcel.com> dean@vexcel.com (Dean Alaska) writes:


   In article <STEINLY.92Dec10134815@topaz.ucsc.edu> steinly@topaz.ucsc.edu (Steinn Sigurdsson) writes:
   >In article <1992Dec10.184439.8324@vexcel.com> dean@vexcel.com (Dean Alaska) writes:

   >   >Steinn Sigurdsson says:

   >   >>The problem is what happens to these stable cultures when you tell
   >   >>them about sepsis. If they adopt modern health care - to any extent -
   >   >>even only smallpox vaccinations, then the life expectancy goes up
   >   >>and infant mortality down. Now, even if they had some stabilising
   >   >>mechanism to balance death&birth rates before, it is usually adjusted
   >   >>for high infant death rates and therefore doesn't need to be efficient
   >   >>in reducing conception. It is far from clear that such cultural
   >   >>mechanisms could be stretched to reduce the conception rate low enough
   >   >>to hold the population stable...

   >   Such cultural mechanisms never get the opportunity to "stretch" to this
   >   task because they are destroyed as part of the whole process.  It is
   >   unclear, and certainly unproven, that they couldn't deal with the
   >   population problems in cultures that are modernizing.  The paragraph

   >True, but it is also the case that the cultural mechanisms break when
   >they fail to stretch, and some of the cultural disruption may be
   >caused by the sudden population surge and demographic shift rather
   >than be the effect. I don't know how much each factor contributes,
   >it is certainly possible to envision cases in which either is
   >dominant.
   >	For an example of birth/death rates and population shifts
   >driving cultural changes because they forced the demographics
   >beyond the cultural stretch limits I would suggest western
   >Europe 1200-1500 AD.

   The situations I have been describing are where the modernization is
   brought from the outside.  The dynamics in western Europe would likely
   be much different since it was home-grown - and also much slower.  I

Just to note, the period I mentioned actually saw several major
transitions, arguable the most significant took place in about
30 years and was due to external causes - the Black Death.

   don't doubt that the specifics vary for different cultures.  I would
   certainly agree that cultural mechanisms break when they fail to
   stretch but do we need to stretch them so much?  For example, 
 
 ...

   >   above implies that health care is the primary factor in population
   >   growth in such societies.  I challenged this earlier and listed some
   >   other factors that contribute to the problem.  If health care is just
   >   one component of the problem, then the removal of other culturally
   >   destructive practices that accompany "modernization" would certainly
   >   help alleviate population problems.  
   >
   >Maybe; if the current cultural mechanisms are intrinisically incapable
   >of coping with the magnitude of physical changes forced by technology and economic
   >development, trying to stretch the old culture may simply prolong the
   >agony. The alternative of course is to withhold the technology and
   >economics, but few people are willing to do so, medical technology in
   >particular, which is why I focused on that as a driving force.
   >(Note: medical technology does not refer to CAT scans or heart
   >transplants but simple points like vaccinations, septic theory,
   >rehydration therapy for diarrhea and theory of infection...)

   This is the common false dichotomy, IMO.  The choice between complete
   cold turkey development or complete withholding of all advances.  There

It is a false dichotomy, I have a habit of using extreme examples
to illustrate the range of choices and consequences thereof.

   are organizations that are bringing in health care and appropriate
   technologies that help the people and soften the transtitions.  
   Appropriate technology, a much maligned phrase, simply refers to
   technologies that fit into the local ecology and can reasonably be
   operated and maintained by local people without a huge dependence on
   outside expertise and energy, which is difficult to get reliably
   given hard currency conditions in the developing world.  Such

I agree with this approach, although it should be noted that the
"appropriateness" of a technology tends to be rather variable
in hindsight :-(
I do rather resent the "bringing in" appropriate technology concept,
it is an approach that IMHO has done far more harm than good,
coming from a society that industrialised almost entirely in my
lifetime, I am of the opinion that the best choices should be
made by the people themselves, not outside organizations, up to
and including allowing people to make their own mistakes and recover
from them.

 ...

   In a sense, we get back to the same issues of rate-of-change and rates of
   adaptability that are central to so many ecological issues.  These
   developments occurred much more slowly in Europe, and the people had
   more time to adapt.  Also, the development happened in an evolutionary
   way that fit the local conditions.  I would still challenge, on
   sustainability grounds, whether development, called "progress" in the
   west, is following an optimum path for us.  But it is not being
   imposed from the outside.

I think you underestimate the rates of change in the European 
example I used - think of it as punctuated equilibrium changes ;-)
some of the changes were certainly not evolutionary or slow.

*  Steinn Sigurdsson   			Lick Observatory      	*
*  steinly@lick.ucsc.edu		"standard disclaimer"  	*
*  I know people whose idea of fun				*
*  Is throwing stones in the river in the afternoon sun		*
*  Oh let me be as free as them					*
*  				- BB 1986			*