Organization: University of Illinois at Chicago
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1993 11:28:08 CST
From: <U15231@uicvm.uic.edu>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.bosna-herzgvna
Subject: Vance and Powell




VANCE AND POWELL: PEACE PLEAS AND OLYMPIAN CAUTION BLOCK NEEDED
ACTION
(Foreign Affairs)
bl
By LESLIE H. GELB
c.1993 N.Y. Times News Service

   Two men whose views must be respected stand in the way of
lessening the bloodshed in Bosnia: Cyrus Vance, the heroic U.N.
diplomat, who negotiates tirelessly for a peace settlement; and
Gen. Colin Powell, the brilliant warrior, who argues relentlessly
against U.S. and allied military intervention.
   Peace among Serbs, Croats and Muslims will almost certainly be
impossible for generations, perhaps longer. The hatreds surpass all
reason.
   What is possible is to create a balance of power, and perhaps a
cease-fire, to contain the war's worst horrors. Even that will be
unattainable unless outside forces and aid are brought in to
redress Serbian dominance.
   I hope I'm wrong about the prospects for peace. Vance is highly
experienced, and he is on the scene. He deserves time to play out
his hand  to divide Bosnia into autonomous provinces loosely
linked to a central government. But not much more time.
   Time is not on Vance's side. Winter's coffin is already encasing
ex-Yugoslavia. Tens of thousands more will soon die or join more
than a million of their countrymen and women as refugees. The peace
process cannot just drift on, becoming an excuse for not taking
decisive military action.
   Nor is history on the Vance side. The peoples of this tragic
land have not been arguing for centuries simply about who among
them should govern, but over who among them will live. Any hope of
burying this hatred vanished in the last nine months of war.
Neighbors killing and raping their neighbors by the thousands will
be neither forgotten nor forgiven.
   Revenge and fear of revenge will preclude anything resembling a
peace agreement or even a viable cease-fire. The only kind of
agreement that might work and last would have to be based on
wrenching geographical separation. The three ethnic groups would
need to be moved into separate enclaves or left in carefully mixed
safe havens.
   But no political settlement, cease-fire or mere slowing of the
slaughter, is feasible until outside powers put the Serbs in check.
And there is no chance of that until the kinds of arguments raised
by General Powell are convincingly met.
   Powell, like many of his counterparts in Europe, argues for all
or nothing. Either use whatever force is necessary to bring the
adversary to his knees or stay out militarily.
   What does it mean to do nothing in this case? It means standing
by while millions are displaced and tens of thousands freeze and
are shot  thus abandoning civilized norms and self-respect.
   It means faking serious efforts to help the Muslims, thus
fanning cynicism and undermining faith in democratic leadership. It
means emboldening the Serbs to turn against other neighbors in
Kosovo and Macedonia, with greater risk of a general Balkan war. It
means unsettling Germany with more refugees.
   Plainly, doing virtually nothing or continuing the present
policy of simply feeding victims while they die makes no sense. But
if doing ``all'' would lead to an open-ended, Vietnam-like
quagmire, that makes no sense either.
   For months now, it has been clear that the issue boils down to
this: Can the West intervene militarily in ways that will not lead
to endless and inconclusive escalation? I believe the answer is yes
and here's how:
   First, Western leaders must be honest with their people about
the stakes and the risks of inaction, and clear about their limited
goals and strictly limited means.
   Second, Western or certainly U.S. military involvement should be
restricted to air power. Either the Serbs accept a full cease-fire
or NATO aircraft attack Serbian military targets in Bosnia and
Serbia.
   Third, and this is critical, the Muslims and Croats themselves
must supply the necessary ground troops. NATO should arm them
appropriately and amply.
   Fourth, these troops should concentrate on protecting safe
havens. And NATO should provide food and shelter for the havens
immediately.
   This plan for getting in does not guarantee a way out. It does
offer a way to reduce the slaughter and limit the West's military
role.
   Bosnians cannot wait for Vance's illusory peace. Nor can the
West suffer Powell's Olympian caution. Every action carries risks.
Inaction is the most risky  and the least conscionable.

 NYT-01-09-93 1430EST