From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: rec.radio.info
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 January
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1993 02:18:16 -0700
Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                24 JANUARY, 1993

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 024, 01/24/93
10.7 FLUX=105    90-AVG=139        SSN=077      BKI=1124 2221  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=2.9E+05  FLU10=9.1E+03  PKI=1224 2222  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=005,009,012,050,013,018,019,008   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.0   @ 0518UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1359UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1850UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1715UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0750UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55418NT @ 2332UT   BOUTF-MIN=55381NT @ 1903UT  BOUTF-AVG=55407NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+118NT@ 2031UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-008NT@ 0919UT  G7-AVG=+075,+026,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1832UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 1903UT  G6-AVG=+094,+002,+038
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/013,020,025
    KFCST=0002 3000 1111 3222  27DAY-AP=005,029   27DAY-KP=0011 0123 2032 5555
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on
       the disk were generally quiet and stable. Region 7406 (S14E03)
       showed some growth in its trailers. Two new regions emerged on
       the disk today: 7408 (N12W66) and 7409 (N17W09). A small fila-
       ment near N08W10 disappeared sometime between 23/2156Z and
       24/1630Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A brief dis-
       turbance occurred from 0900-1200Z which caused active con-
       ditions at middle latitudes and active to major storm levels
       at high latitudes. Middle latitudes returned to quiet for
       the remainder of the period and high latitudes were quiet
       to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.
       Activity is expected to pick up gradually sometime on day
       two and is expected to reach active levels by the third day
       day. The increase is forecast because of a favorably positioned
       coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 25 jan-27 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 jan-27 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/20/25
                        Minor Storm           05/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/25/30
                        Minor Storm           05/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal to below normal
       today.  A period of active to major storming between 09:00 UT
       and 18:00 UT produced poor to very poor propagation over many
       high latitude paths.  Effects were noticed well into the middle
       latitude regions near the night-sectors during the disturbed
       periods, but began subsiding after approximately 15:00 UT.
       Conditions are expected to vary from near-normal over the
       middle latitude paths to below normal over the middle to polar
       latitude paths for the next 72 hours.  Propagation will become
       increasingly less stable on 26 and 27 January due to an
       anticipated coronal hole disturbance which proved to be mildly
       geoeffective on the previous rotation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7401  S11W70  018  0010 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7403  N14W50  358  0150 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7406  S14E03  305  0080 CSO  07  007 BETA
7407  S06E33  275  0010 HRX  01  002 ALPHA
7408  N12W66  014  0010 BXO  04  002 BETA
7409  N17W09  317  0010 BXO  05  003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 JANUARY TO 27 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7394 S16   178
7386 S05   183


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
24/B2038             A2109       N13W75   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
82   S37W12 S40W13 S15W40 S01W32  346  ISO   POS   017 10830A
83   N21E08 S04W08 N09W25 N33W06  327  ISO   POS   022 10830A
84   S32E55 S40E44 S26E16 S21E29  284  ISO   NEG   021 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **