From: sysmgr@king.eng.umd.edu (Doug Mohney)
Subject: Re: Justification for the Space Program
Date: Tue, 22 Dec 92 19:23:37 GMT
Organization: Computer Aided Design Lab, U. of Maryland College Park
Distribution: usa, world
Reply-To: sysmgr@king.eng.umd.edu

In article <1h7lceINNgtf@transfer.stratus.com>, det@phlan.sw.stratus.com (David Toland) writes:
>In article <1992Dec22.160234.21852@eng.umd.edu> sysmgr@king.eng.umd.edu writes:
>
>>We WILL end up off-planet. However, this process will be a series of small
>>evolutionary steps, rather than Absolutely-Positively-Overnight URGENCY
>>which Dennis insists IS necessary. 
>>
>>Let's cut the crap here, and speak frankly. IF we needed to run out to the
>>Great Beyond to save our butts, we COULD do it. 
>
>Do you *really* believe this?  If we had 12 months notice, we could
>remove enough people for a self-sustaining colony to another body,
>even the moon, before a comet-earth collision?

If we had 12 months notice, we'd nuke the friggin' comet to little pieces. 
And have time left over to enjoy the cosmic fireworks.

Of course, the astronomers won't be too happy with the disruption, but you
can't keep everyone happy :-)

I can give you three examples of what we CAN do if we NEED to do it:

	1) From basic physics to a nuclear weapon in under 5 years

		(Manhattan Project, United States, $1 billion est. cost)

	2) "To land a man on the moon, and return him ... safely to the earth"

		Apollo. And this was working on a budget which had to fight
		with Great Society programs and the Vietnam war expenditures.

	3) The elimination of smallpox from the face of the earth.

		Many nations, a shoestring budget, fighting various
		social and political battles. 

Anything which collectively threatened the safety of the planet would result
in a collective response. 

Start a war or declare any other "real" emergency and see what happens when you
let people get the job down.

>>We don't NEED to do it. And we can do a whole hell of a lot more in improving
>>the quality of life for all mankind in our own backyards before we step up and
>>off the planet. 
>
>Do you have 20-20 premonition?  I'm not going to claim that we have 50
>years, no more and no less, or lose the chance forever.  But there are
>large chunks of matter flying through the solar system.  Not all of them
>have been mapped yet.  And from time to time, big pieces do hit other
>big pieces, including the earth.  It could be a million years or more
>until we get hit by one large enough to send civilization back to cave
>dwellers or worse, or it could happen next year.  Our sun could produce
>a major killing flare, or a star in this section of the galaxy may have
>already gone supernova,and we're just waiting for the wavefront.

You could also get into a major pileup on the highway and die tomorrow!!!

If the sun or some other star goes supernova, we're screwed regardless, no
matter how hard we try. It's called "Unwinnable scenario." You're supposed to
yell "The sky is falling!!!" after you say that.

>Now we could sit on our collective butts and wait for a crisis (maybe
>even create one ourselves), or we could struggle to spread our species
>far enough that no one disaster will eliminate us.  I for one dislike
>gambling, and the stakes in this case are terrifying.  The sooner
>we start, the better our chances.

You left out the phrase "Cosmic Jihad" cuz that's what it sounds like. A
religious belief which ain't going to get the job done for Joe Six-pack to
support you.

>I also maintain that a working space program would introduce new
>technologies and generally stimulate a lackluster economy, to the
>benefit of all.

I maintain that we could get a lot more research done if we killed the
super-dooper collider in Texas and put the $8-10 billion into basic research
grants into materials science, biotechnology, superconducters, and alternate
energy sources. To the benefit of all. 

*yawn* Next zealot? 

                    I have talked to Ehud, and lived.
  -- >                  SYSMGR@CADLAB.ENG.UMD.EDU                        < --
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