Reference number : GC-2017-Q3-00476, amendment number : , agreement type : G, recipient legal name : Davies, Evan (University of Alberta), recipient country : CA, recipient province : nan, recipient city : Alberta, recipient postal code : nan, program name english : Engage Grants for universities, program name french : Subventions d'engagement partenarial pour les universités, program purpose english : For half a century, the 100-year flood hazard zone (FHZ) has been enshrined in culture and law as a planning_x000D_
tool to limit the growth of flood risk. This FHZ can be seen as a flood risk reduction tool with two main_x000D_
components: 1) spatial extents; and 2) flood rules. While flood rules vary (flood proofing requirements, use_x000D_
restrictions, insurance regulations, and so on), many jurisdictions in the US and Canada use a single flood_x000D_
probability to map the spatial extents. Generally, a 1% probability or 100-yr return period has been selected for_x000D_
this as a compromise between revenue generating land-uses and flood exposure. We seek to explore the effect_x000D_
of this arbitrary return period, and ask: how does the 100-yr FHZ affect flood risk?_x000D_
To answer this question, we will compare the expected lifetime flood damage of different FHZ flood_x000D_
probabilities. First, we will simulate stochastic flooding on an evolving city-scape in reaction to flood proofing_x000D_
requirements for reconstructions within the FHZ. Then, assuming flood rules tied to a redefined FHZ would_x000D_
only apply to reconstruction, we will focus on temporal and spatial dynamics of reconstruction decisions, the_x000D_
accompanying reduction in vulnerability, and the scaled-up effect of these actions on the total expected flood_x000D_
damage in monetary terms for a city._x000D_
This proposed study leverages the flood risk assessments conducted by IBI Group for the City of Calgary_x000D_
following the 2013 Southern Alberta Floods, which informed decisions by projecting the existing risk forward._x000D_
In partnership with IBI, the proposed study will take the next step: investigating how flood risk may change_x000D_
over time in a dynamic city and how this can be minimized. This novel application of agent-based modelling_x000D_
will provide an additional tool for decision makers to navigate the uncertainty of flood risk in a dynamic city., program purpose french : For half a century, the 100-year flood hazard zone (FHZ) has been enshrined in culture and law as a planning_x000D_
tool to limit the growth of flood risk. This FHZ can be seen as a flood risk reduction tool with two main_x000D_
components: 1) spatial extents; and 2) flood rules. While flood rules vary (flood proofing requirements, use_x000D_
restrictions, insurance regulations, and so on), many jurisdictions in the US and Canada use a single flood_x000D_
probability to map the spatial extents. Generally, a 1% probability or 100-yr return period has been selected for_x000D_
this as a compromise between revenue generating land-uses and flood exposure. We seek to explore the effect_x000D_
of this arbitrary return period, and ask: how does the 100-yr FHZ affect flood risk?_x000D_
To answer this question, we will compare the expected lifetime flood damage of different FHZ flood_x000D_
probabilities. First, we will simulate stochastic flooding on an evolving city-scape in reaction to flood proofing_x000D_
requirements for reconstructions within the FHZ. Then, assuming flood rules tied to a redefined FHZ would_x000D_
only apply to reconstruction, we will focus on temporal and spatial dynamics of reconstruction decisions, the_x000D_
accompanying reduction in vulnerability, and the scaled-up effect of these actions on the total expected flood_x000D_
damage in monetary terms for a city._x000D_
This proposed study leverages the flood risk assessments conducted by IBI Group for the City of Calgary_x000D_
following the 2013 Southern Alberta Floods, which informed decisions by projecting the existing risk forward._x000D_
In partnership with IBI, the proposed study will take the next step: investigating how flood risk may change_x000D_
over time in a dynamic city and how this can be minimized. This novel application of agent-based modelling_x000D_
will provide an additional tool for decision makers to navigate the uncertainty of flood risk in a dynamic city., agreement title english : Arbitrary Flood Hazard Zones: Dialing-in the 100-yr Paradigm, agreement title french : Arbitrary Flood Hazard Zones: Dialing-in the 100-yr Paradigm, agreement number : EGP, agreement value : 24995.0, agreement start date : 2017-10-18, agreement end date : nan, description english : nan, description french : nan, expected results english : nan, expected results french : nan, additional information english : Grant or Award spanning more than one fiscal year (2017-2018 to 2018-2019)., additional information french : Subvention ou bourse octroyée s'appliquant à plus d'un exercice financier (2017-2018 à 2018-2019)., owner organization : nserc-crsng, owner organization title : Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada | Conseil de recherches en sciences naturelles et en génie du Canada