Reference number : GC-2017-Q1-02012, amendment number : , agreement type : G, recipient legal name : Fabry, Frédéric (McGill University)|Fabry, Frédéric (Université McGill), recipient country : CA, recipient province : nan, recipient city : Quebec|Québec, recipient postal code : nan, program name english : Discovery Grants Program - Individual, program name french : Programme de subventions à la découverte - individuelles, program purpose english : While weather forecasting in general is showing steady progress, the timeliness and quality of warnings for severe and damaging weather has not markedly improved in the past decade. This occurs even though the tools and approaches used (forecasting models, computers, etc) have become more sophisticated. We hence believe this lack of progress is due to the fact that the current state of the atmosphere, necessary to make any forecast, is not correctly assessed. If this is the case, then we need to perform more research work on how to better measure the atmosphere in conditions when and where severe weather can occur, as well as on how to improve how the measurements are being used to provide information to weather forecasting tools. Since storm formation and evolution is critically dependent on temperature and humidity patterns, and since those are poorly measured over large areas with existing instruments, particularly in cloudy or stormy conditions, it is on this task that we will put most of our efforts. 
 
To advance this task over the next five years, we will undertake a multi-pronged research effort. Namely, we will: 
 
- Improve the information obtained from existing instruments: Our focus will be on continuing the development of a radar-based technique to obtain information of the humidity of air close to the surface that generally feed storms; 
 
- Test a new instrument: We will evaluate the measurements obtained by a new prototype instrument developed here and designed to get information on temperature and humidity in the lower atmosphere over large areas; 
 
- Revise current approaches to use measurements to initialize forecast models: We will develop new ideas on how to better assimilate or take advantage of the information coming from measurements to obtain a more accurate and complete description of the state of the atmosphere. Specifically, we want to devise new ways to take the information we have about the present and the past and better infer the state of the atmosphere that caused them with a focus on retrieving information most relevant to its future state. 
 
In parallel, we will continue the development of a simple yet effective approach to forecast precipitation by using the time evolution of radar echoes of precipitation to determine what these will do in the future. 
 
This research will be primarily performed by undergraduate and graduate students under my supervision. Our hope is that, in combination, all these lines of inquiry will help eliminate the main obstacle to better forecasts of damaging weather such as floods, hail, and tornadoes., program purpose french : While weather forecasting in general is showing steady progress, the timeliness and quality of warnings for severe and damaging weather has not markedly improved in the past decade. This occurs even though the tools and approaches used (forecasting models, computers, etc) have become more sophisticated. We hence believe this lack of progress is due to the fact that the current state of the atmosphere, necessary to make any forecast, is not correctly assessed. If this is the case, then we need to perform more research work on how to better measure the atmosphere in conditions when and where severe weather can occur, as well as on how to improve how the measurements are being used to provide information to weather forecasting tools. Since storm formation and evolution is critically dependent on temperature and humidity patterns, and since those are poorly measured over large areas with existing instruments, particularly in cloudy or stormy conditions, it is on this task that we will put most of our efforts. 
 
To advance this task over the next five years, we will undertake a multi-pronged research effort. Namely, we will: 
 
- Improve the information obtained from existing instruments: Our focus will be on continuing the development of a radar-based technique to obtain information of the humidity of air close to the surface that generally feed storms; 
 
- Test a new instrument: We will evaluate the measurements obtained by a new prototype instrument developed here and designed to get information on temperature and humidity in the lower atmosphere over large areas; 
 
- Revise current approaches to use measurements to initialize forecast models: We will develop new ideas on how to better assimilate or take advantage of the information coming from measurements to obtain a more accurate and complete description of the state of the atmosphere. Specifically, we want to devise new ways to take the information we have about the present and the past and better infer the state of the atmosphere that caused them with a focus on retrieving information most relevant to its future state. 
 
In parallel, we will continue the development of a simple yet effective approach to forecast precipitation by using the time evolution of radar echoes of precipitation to determine what these will do in the future. 
 
This research will be primarily performed by undergraduate and graduate students under my supervision. Our hope is that, in combination, all these lines of inquiry will help eliminate the main obstacle to better forecasts of damaging weather such as floods, hail, and tornadoes., agreement title english : Bridging the gaps between data collection and prediction at thunderstorm scales, agreement title french : Bridging the gaps between data collection and prediction at thunderstorm scales, agreement number : RGPIN, agreement value : 110000.0, agreement start date : 2017-05-10, agreement end date : nan, description english : nan, description french : nan, expected results english : nan, expected results french : nan, additional information english : Grant or Award spanning more than one fiscal year. (2017-2018 to 2022-2023), additional information french : Subvention ou bourse octroyée s'appliquant à plus d'un exercice financier. (2017-2018 à 2022-2023), owner organization : nserc-crsng, owner organization title : Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada | Conseil de recherches en sciences naturelles et en génie du Canada