Abstract: From 85 papers describing IQCODE, we included three papers, representing data from 626 individuals. Of this total, 22% (N = 135/626) were excluded because of prevalent dementia. There was substantial attrition; 47% (N = 295) of the study population received reference standard assessment at first follow-up (three to six months) and 28% (N = 174) received reference standard assessment at final follow-up (one to three years). Prevalence of dementia ranged from 12% to 26% at first follow-up and 16% to 35% at final follow-up. The three studies were considered to be too heterogenous to combine, so we did not perform meta-analyses to describe summary estimates of interest. Included patients were poststroke (two papers) and hip fracture (one paper). The IQCODE was used at three thresholds of positivity (higher than 3.0, higher than 3.12 and higher than 3.3) to predict those at risk of a future diagnosis of dementia. Using a cut-off of 3.0, IQCODE had a sensitivity of 0.75 (95%CI 0.51 to 0.91) and a specificity of 0.46 (95%CI 0.34 to 0.59) at one year following stroke. Using a cut-off of 3.12, the IQCODE had a sensitivity of 0.80 (95%CI 0.44 to 0.97) and specificity of 0.53 (95C%CI 0.41 to 0.65) for the clinical diagnosis of dementia at six months after hip fracture. Using a cut-off of 3.3, the IQCODE had a sensitivity of 0.84 (95%CI 0.68 to 0.94) and a specificity of 0.87 (95%CI 0.76 to 0.94) for the clinical diagnosis of dementia at one year after stroke. In generaI, the IQCODE was sensitive for identification of those who would develop dementia, but lacked specificity. Methods for both excluding prevalent dementia at baseline and assessing for the development of dementia were varied, and had the potential to introduce bias. Included studies were heterogenous, recruited from specialist settings, and had potential biases. The studies identified did not allow us to make specific recommendations on the use of the IQCODE for the future diagnosis of dementia in clinical practice. The included studies highlighted the challenges of delayed verification dementia research, with issues around prevalent dementia assessment, loss to follow-up over time, and test non-completion potentially limiting the studies. Future research should recognise these issues and have explicit protocols for dealing with them.

Plain-language summary: We found three relevant studies, all of which were carried out in specific hospital settings. Two papers only included patients with acute stroke, and the other included those who had sustained a hip fracture. The papers differed in many other ways, so we we were unable to estimate a summary of their combined results. In general, a 'positive' IQCODE picked up patients who would go on to develop dementia (good sensitivity), but mislabelled a number who did not develop dementia (poor specificity). We cannot make recommendations for current practice, based on the studies we reviewed. The included studies demonstrated some of the challenges of research that follows people at risk of dementia over time. Not all the studies had a robust method of ensuring that none of the included participants had dementia at the start of the study, and that only new cases were identified. Similarly, many of the participants included at the start of the study were not available for re-assessment, due to death or other illness. The review was performed by a team based in research centres in the UK (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Oxford). We had no external funding specific to this study, and we have no conflicts of interest that may have influenced our assessment of the research data.