Abstract: Three randomised controlled trials and one quasi-randomised controlled trial were included. These involved a total of 292 participants with ankle fractures. All studies were at high risk of bias from lack of blinding. Additionally, loss to follow-up or inappropriate exclusion of participants put two trials at high risk of attrition bias. The trials used different and incompatible outcome measures for assessing function and pain. Only limited meta-analysis was possible for early treatment failure, some adverse events and radiological signs of arthritis. One trial, following up 92 of 111 randomised participants, found no statistically significant differences between surgery and conservative treatment in patient-reported symptoms (self assessed ankle "troubles": 11/43 versus 14/49; risk ratio (RR) 0.90, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.76) or walking difficulties at seven years follow-up. One trial, reporting data for 31 of 43 randomised participants, found a statistically significantly better mean Olerud score in the surgically treated group but no difference between the two groups in pain scores after a mean follow-up of 27 months. A third trial, reporting data for 49 of 96 randomised participants at 3.5 years follow-up, reported no difference between the two groups in a non-validated clinical score. Early treatment failure, generally reflecting the failure of closed reduction (criteria not reported in two trials) probably or explicitly leading to surgery in patients allocated conservative treatment, was significantly higher in the conservative treatment group (2/116 versus 19/129; RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.54). Otherwise, there were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in any of the reported complications. Pooled results from two trials of participants with radiological signs of osteoarthritis at averages of 3.5 and 7.0 years follow-up showed no between-group differences (44/66 versus 50/75; RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.31). There is currently insufficient evidence to conclude whether surgical or conservative treatment produces superior long-term outcomes for ankle fractures in adults. The identification of several ongoing randomised trials means that better evidence to inform this question is likely to be available in future.

Plain-language summary: This review included four trials, involving a total of 292 participants. All four trials had flawed methods that could affect the reliability of their findings. No data could be pooled for long-term measures of function or pain. The largest trial found no evidence of differences between surgery and conservative treatment in patient-reported symptoms or walking difficulties at seven years follow-up. The second trial found better results for the surgical group for function but not pain at 27 months, while the third trial reported no difference between the two groups in clinical outcome at 3.5 years. In all four trials, there were some patients in the conservative treatment group who were treated surgically because the repositioning of the fractured bone was judged unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were no significant differences between the two groups in any of the reported complications nor in radiological signs of osteoarthritis. Overall, there was not enough reliable evidence to draw conclusions about whether surgery or conservative treatment is more appropriate for treating broken ankles in adults.