[104-10221-10004.pdf — page 43]
CONFIDENTIAL/NO FOREIGN DISSEN-2-2.  Victor Rico Galan and his associates can expect neither sympathy nor help from the Popular Socialist Party (PPS - Partido Popular Socialista). Although no official decision has yet been made by the Party, PPS leaders who have commented unofficially on the matter have said that for the moment the Party will no doubt stay completely outside the whole affair, thus proving its total lack of interest in this type of revolutionary activity. It is of course possible that PPS Secretary General Vicente Lombardo Toledano will seize the opportunity to issue a statement condemning the entire affair as Trotskyist, criminal, and utopian. Lombardo may decide to use this opportunity to strike back at the National Liberation Movement (MLN - Movimiento de Liberacion Nacional) and others who have attacked him.3.  Among leaders of both the PPS and the General Union of Workers and Peasants of Mexico (UGOCM - Union General de Obreros y Campesinos de Mexico), there is a certain skepticism about the truth of the matter as it has been presented in the press. It is probably true that arms and materials for manufacturing explosives were confiscated. It is probably true that indoctrination sessions on political and revolutionary matters probably were held in the houses where the arrests were made. And probably the group did have some kind of plan for action. But, it is simply not true that there was the slightest danger of immediate and formidable rebellion from Rico Galan and his friends.4.  This latter conclusion is based on the fact that Rico Galan is no guerrilla leader. He is an aggressive intellectual, a radical, but he is not in jail for what he has done but for his ideas. As for Raul Ugalde Alvarez, named with Rico Galan as one of the leaders of the group, he has the reputation of being fuzzy-minded, a leftist adventurer and certainly neither brave nor dedicated. Further, and Rico Galan is well aware of this, popular support is essential to the success of rebellion. None exists. The peasants are divided. The workers are controlled by the Government, and the middle-class is content with the way things are. Also, there is the formidable precedent of Government action against any kind of rebellion, trade union, armed, and particularly any sort of activity which is Cuban-connected. The Government has always moved with energy, speed, and efficiency to combat such threats as, for example, during the Railway Workers Strike of 1959. Several leaders of that strike are still in jail and likely to remain there. Another example is the september 1965 attack on a military camp at Ciudad Madera, Chihuahua. While the Government did not feel that his incident posed any real threat to it, it did not want the bad international publicity, so vigilance was increased, activities of would-be guerrillas were blocked, some were bought off with money, others with promises and the matter was promptly and efficiently controlled.5.  There no doubt is a degree of truth to police charges, but the melodramatic, almost childish character given to the Rico Galan movement, the lack of any proven connection between the movement and leftist/Communist organizations, Rico Galan's open and well-known connections with Guatemalan guerrilla leaders and his public support of the Cuban revolution, make it very hard to discount the suspicion that this is simply a Government maneuver. Also, while the police no doubt did confiscate arms and other materials, the suspicion exists that the police have inflated their role in order to make themselves look good both to the President and to public opinion.CONFIDENTIAL/NO FOREIGN DISSEN