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# SECRETReport Not HKH-1477, Page 2Date 6 May 1957not accomplished anything, they will be more amenable to suggestions to prepare for the elections in 1958.4. GARCIA Barcena feels that the Ortodoxo Party has only about a 25 per cent chance of winning a Presidential election -- not because it could not command enough votes, but because the current regime of terrorism would not dare permit an opposition party to come into power. They have gone too far on the road to government by assassination, imprisonment, and robbery to give up their power, he said. Nevertheless, in his opinion there is no alternative to an election. He feels that, even if the Ortodoxos cannot elect a President, they may elect a number of Senators and Representatives in Congress. He will propose that Ramon BARQUIN be run as a candidate for the Senate even if BARQUIN is still in prison at the time of the elections. He did not believe that there were any legal obstacles.5. Regarding Fidel CASTRO Rus, he said that CASTRO was an impetuous and perhaps even an irresponsible leader, but one who could not be ignored in any new government because to the youth of the country he represents an ideal and for this reason no stable government could be formed without him. He said he differed with CASTRO on the matter of military principles. He does not believe that CASTRO will be able to attract any significant defections or support from the Army. He said that CASTRO originally believed that, if he could only establish a beachhead in Oriente, show strength in that area, whilst at the same time show the Army that he had supporters in Habana by agitating here, he would be able to find support in the Army itself, particularly in Camp Columbia. This was CASTRO's big mistake, according to GARCIA Bárcena. Since CASTRO cannot take Camp Columbia, he is isolated. GARCIA Barcena did not believe that CASTRO was ultra-nationalistic but that apparently some of his followers were from the tone of some of the propaganda of the 26th of July Movement. GARCIA Bárcena, because of his previous influence among Cuban youth, apparently sees himself as the person to offset or balance the impulsiveness of CASTRO if his group ever comes to power.Field CommentsRafacl GARCIA Bárcena was one of the founders of the Partido del Pueblo Cubano (Ortodoxo) but separated from it because of differences of opinion with the leaders Roberto AGRANONTS and Jose PARDO Llada. He had been a University professor and instructor of military psychology at the Cabaña Fortress and at one time had considerable following among Cuban youth and many friends in the Cuban Army. In Ar11 1953 he was sentenced to three years' imprisonment for conspiracy against the BATISTA Government but was released by amnesty in June 1954. Since then he has refrained from revolutionary activities and has been occupied with writing mildly anti-Government articles for various publications and maintaining contact with the principal leaders of the opposition parties.. In a forthcoming article to appear in Bohemia, he will exhort the youth of Cuba to give up their violent revolutionary activities and to seek power through elections in 1958.SECRET