[104-10165-10084.pdf — page 23]
# Intelligence Information ReportThis material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espionage Laws, Title 18, U.S.C. Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-LCOUNTRY HondurasREPORT NO. 00-B-321/14313-70SUBJECT Interest of Lopez in Second Term/Decline in Influence of Zuniga/Lack of Support for Candidacy ofFernandezDATE DISTR. 2 JUNNO. PAGES 1REFERENCES CIRL LA1-70(2356)DATE OF INFO. May 70 and earlierPLACE & DATE ACQ. BY SOURCE Honduras/May 70 and earlierTHIS IS UNEVALUATED INFORMATIONSOURCE Naturalized US citizen who has worked and lived in Honduras for a number of years. He has numerous social contacts and business connections with officials of the government, the armed forces and the business community.[This report was developed by an Army representative assigned to the office of preparation.]1.  President Oswaldo Lopez Arellano is interested in a second term. This opinion is based on a growing consensus among Congressmen, Honduran business leaders and the military that Lopez desires to remain in office for another term. The thinking in these Honduran circles is that the lack of disclaimers by Lopez is, in itself, a strong indication of his "continuismo" plans. Approximately ten days ago Herman Pascua, manager of the National Railroad, headquartered in San Pedro Sula, had a discussion with the President during which Pascua passed the remark that he would like to remain with the railroad as long as Lopez remained in office. Lopez made no specific rejoinder to this but Pascua left the President's office with the distinct impression that Lopez would run for reelection.2.  Lopez would probably be reelected with relative ease. The opposition Liberal Party is divided internally and lacks both an effective candidate and the capital necessary to offer a serious challenge.3.  The power and influence of Ricardo Zuniga has declined drastically in recent months. This is not due to any specific act but more to a growing realization by President Lopez of Zuniga's dishonesty, ambition for power and his inability to get along with some government officials and prominent military officers. President Lopez was particularly dismayed at Zuniga's handling of Honduran propaganda during the recent Honduran/El Salvadoran border war. Lopez allegedly felt that the invective against El Salvador often mirrored the type used by Cuban Communism.4.  Miguel Andonie Fernandez, a self-appointed presidential candidate, is an honest, sincere and well respected man. There is a small group of roughly ten Arab and Jewish businessmen in San Pedro Sula known as the "economic mafia" because they control so much of Honduran business activity. This group has taken note of the candidacy of Fernandez and has been impressed by his honesty and sincerity. They will not support him however, because they feel he lacks the political experience and popular base for a successful campaign.- end -U YESC-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-LS YESCONTROLLED DISSEMNO DISSEM ABROADThe dissemination of this document is limited to civilian employees and active duty military personnel within the intelligence components of the USIB member agencies, and to those senior officials of the member agencies who must act upon the information. However, unless specifically controlled in accordance with paragraph 8 of DCID 1/7, it may be released to those components of the departments and agencies of the U. S. Government directly participating in the production of National Intelligence. IT SHALL NOT BE DISSEMINATED TO CONTRACTORS. It shall not be disseminated to organizations or personnel, including consultants, under a contractual relationship to the U.S. Government without the written permission of the originator.