Before revision: We present a novel methodology in order to perform the epidemic risk assessment in terms of different factors which are useful to understand the different impact of an epidemic in different areas of a country. In particular we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.
After revision: We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area, and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and its vulnerability. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.