Before revision:   We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter in this model that accounts for the effects of confinement measures. We do not calibrate our models parameters, but we estimate all of them based on a clear hierarchical procedure of squared error minimization. The estimated parameters of the ratio between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, the proportion of infected individuals that die and the usual epidemiological parameters have a great match with the ones provided by the literature. Our final models provide precise forecasts of the number of infected individuals. We use these models to discuss different scenarios of public policies.
After revision:  We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter in this model that accounts for the effects of social distancing measures. Short and