Before revision:  When early agents decrease their acceptance thresholds due to pessimism, later learners will become more surprised by the lack of positive reversals in their predecessors' histories, leading to even more pessimistic inferences and even lower acceptance thresholds -- a positive-feedback loop . Agents who are additionally uncertain about the distribution's variance believe in fictitious variation (exaggerated variance) to an extent depending on the severity of data censoring . When payoffs are convex in the draws (e.g. managers can hire previously rejected interviewees), variance uncertainty provides another channel of positive feedback between past and future thresholds .
After revision:  When early agents decrease their acceptance thresholds due to pessimism, later learners will become more surprised by the lack of positive reversals in their predecessors' histories, leading to even more pessimistic inferences and even lower acceptance thresholds -- a positive-feedback loop . Agents who are additionally uncertain about the distribution's variance believe in fictitious variation (exaggerated variance) to an extent depending on the severity of data censoring .