Before revision: To forecast political elections , popular pollsters and forecasters gather polls and combine information from them with fundamental data such as historical trends, the national economy, and incumbency. This process is complicated, and it includes many subjective choices (e. g., when identifying likely voters, estimating turnout, and quantifying other sources of uncertainty), leading to forecasts that differ between sources even when they use the same underlying polling data. With the goal of shedding light on election forecasts (using the United States as an example), we develop a theory for forecasting elections from the perspective of dynamical systems.
After revision: To forecast political elections , we develop a theory for forecasting elections from the perspective of dynamical systems.