Before revision: The number of infections and the number of fatalities in the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemics follows a remarkably regular trend. Since the end of January , the ratio of fatalities per infection is about 2\% and remarkably stable. The increase appears to be roughly exponential , but with an e-folding time that gradually increases from just two days at the end of January to about ten days by February 9. Here we show that, since January 20 , the number of fatalities and infections increases quadratically and not exponentially, as widely believed.
After revision: The number of infections and the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 , the number of fatalities and infections increases quadratically and not exponentially, as widely believed.