Before revision:  We apply our approach to understand drastic differences in COVID-19 infection and fatality counts ( observed between Hubei (Wuhan) and other Mainland China provinces ), which we explain through interplay of transmissibility and effective protectiondifferences. That is, we obtain a negative feedback (also commonly encountered in systems biology) between transmissibility and effects of social distancing, with Hubei being an outlier with both large transmissibility and lower social distancing effects. While Case Fatality Rate is significantly larger for Hubei, we find that Infection Fatality Rates (IFRs) are much more uniform/consistent across all the provinces. Even for Wuhan, our inferred Infection Attack Rate is much below the herd immunity threshold, raising a major reemission risk .
After revision:  We apply our approach to understand drastic differences in COVID-19 infection and fatality counts ( observed between Hubei (Wuhan) and other Mainland China provinces . We find that these unintuitive data may be explained through an interplay of differences in transmissibility, effective protection, and detection efficiencies between Hubei and other provinces. More generally, our results demonstrate that regional differences may drastically shape infection outbursts .