Before revision:  As such, the efficacy of the measures that are currently being taken to contain the coronavirus should be carefully weighed against their impact on the world economy.abstract 
After revision:  As such, the efficacy of the measures that are currently being taken to contain the coronavirus should be carefully weighed against their impact on the world economy.abstract 24\% of the global population, i.e. about 1.83 billion people, taking approximately 86 million lives. Unless drastic new interventions become possible, the global number of new cases is predicted to peak on day 129 (about the middle of May 2020), with an estimated 65 million new cases per day. Since our simple model fits the available global data so well, we suggest that the measures being taken so far to contain the pandemic may be ineffective in curbing the global spread of the virus. As such, the efficacy of these measures should be more carefully weighed against their impact on the world economy.