Before revision:  A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on COVID-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that  infections were in decline before full UK lockdown (24 March 2020), and that  infections in Sweden started to decline only a day or two later.
After revision:  A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on first wave Covid-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that infections were in decline before full UK lockdown (24 March 2020), and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a day or two later.