Before revision:  Assuming an ICU rate of 5 \%, a time lag of 5 days and an average stay of 14 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data  and is in accord with independent estimates.
After revision:  Assuming an ICU rate of 5 \%, a time lag of 5 days and an average stay of 12 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data and is in accord with independent estimates.