Before revision:  Individuals in the highest quartile of risk by our measure are 7.4 times more likely to default than those in the lowest quartile. The method is predictive for both individuals with financial histories, and those without, who cannot be scored using traditional methods. We benchmark performance on our sample of individuals with (thin) financial histories : our method performs no worse than models using credit bureau information  .
After revision:  Individuals in the highest quartile of risk by our measure are 7.4 times more likely to default than those in the lowest quintile. On our sample of individuals with (thin) financial histories : our method performs no worse than models using credit bureau information .