Before revision:  A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on COVID-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that infections were in decline before UK lockdown , and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a short time later.
After revision:  A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on COVID-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that infections were in decline before full UK lockdown (24 March 2020) , and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a short time later.