Before revision:  We find that our model provides a surprisingly good fit to the currently-available data . It predicts that the disease will run its full course over six to seven months , starting from the date on which the world URLanisation provided the first ' Situation report' (21 January 2020 - day 1).
After revision:  We find that our model provides a surprisingly good fit to the currently-available data , which exhibits a cross-over from exponential to power-law growth, as lock-down measures begin to take effect. Before these measures, our model predicts exponential growth from day 30 to 69 , starting from the date on which the world URLanisation provided the first ' Situation report' (21 January 2020 - day 1).