Before revision:  In this perspective, instead of considering a single R_0, we consider a distribution of reproductive numbers R and devise a simple Bayesian hierarchical model that builds upon current methods for estimating the R to integrate its heterogeneity. We then simulate the spread of the epidemic , and the impact of different social distancing strategies using a probabilistic framework that models hospital occupancy.
After revision:  In this perspective, instead of considering a single R_0, we consider a distribution of reproductive numbers R and devise a simple Bayesian hierarchical model . Using our fitted model, we then simulate the spread of the epidemic , and the impact of different social distancing strategies using a probabilistic framework that models hospital occupancy.