Before revision:  Empirical study is performed on a ten-year guarantee loan record from commercial banks. We find that often hundreds or thousands of enterprises back each other and constitute a sparse complex network. We study the risk of various structures of loan guarantee network, and observe the high correlation between defaults with centrality, and with the communities of the network. In particular , our quantitative risk evaluation model shows promising prediction performance on real-world data, which can be useful to both regulators and stakeholders.
After revision:  Empirical study is performed on a ten-year guarantee loan record from a major commercial bank. The results show that our proposed method outperforms conventional credit risk methods in terms of AUC. In summary , our quantitative risk evaluation model shows promising prediction performance on real-world data, which can be useful to both regulators and stakeholders.