Before revision:  The time at which the  number of infected individuals  starts decreasing cannot be reliably calculated before it is actually attained . A standard SIR model with confinement shows that infection spread is inhibited only above a threshold . Confinement induces a slow-down in the expansion phase that does not guarantee an eventual control of the epidemic.
After revision:  The time at which the number of infected individuals starts decreasing cannot be reliably calculated before it is actually attained ; neither can the end of the epidemic after the turning point. An SIR model with confinement shows that infection spread is inhibited only above a threshold . Confinement induces a slow-down in the expansion phase that does not guarantee an eventual control of the epidemic.