Before revision:  Using our age-stratified compartmental model and carefully curated epidemiological data from Germany and Europe, we study different scenarios for the long-term containment of COVID-19 in Europe, ranging from i) immediate release of measures and re-implementing NPIs only if risking a hospital overflow, to ii) driving case-numbers further down to profit from the additional stability gained by test-trace-isolate (TTI) measures. We found that in all scenarios restrictions can be lifted steadily -- at the pace of vaccination . Differences in restriction levels are only of short duration: If restrictions are lifted faster than the pace of vaccination , more freedom is gained only transiently until full intensive care units require installing restrictions again.
After revision:  Using our age-stratified model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified at which pace European countries can lift restrictions without overwhelming their health-care systems. The analysed scenarios range from immediately lifting restriction (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers until test-trace-and-isolate programs facilitate control. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease in the average age of ICU patients and deaths by about seven years. The pace of vaccination , more freedom is gained only transiently until full intensive care units require installing restrictions again.