Before revision:  We use transfer learning to extract visual semantics  as concepts, scenes, and objects, which allows us to interpret and explain the trained model and predictions. The study is based in one million posts extracted from Instagram. We approach the problem of popularity prediction as a ranking problem, where we predict the log-normalised number of likes. Through our ablation study design, we can suggest models that outperform a previous state-of-the-art black-box method for multi-modal popularity prediction on Instagram .
After revision:  We use transfer learning to extract visual semantics as concepts, scenes, and objects, allowing a new level of scrutiny in an extensive, explainable ablation study. We inform feature selection towards a robust and scalable model, but also illustrate feature interactions, offering new directions for further inquiry in computational social science. Our strongest models inform a lower limit to population-based predictability of popularity on Instagram. The models are immediately applicable to social media monitoring and influencer identification .