Before revision:  A theoretical model of technological change and turnover is presented, intended as a methodological paradigm shift from widely used conventional modelling approaches such as cost optimisation. It follows the tradition of evolutionary economics and evolutionary game theory, using ecological population growth dynamics to represent the evolution of technology populations in the marketplace, with substitutions taking place at the level of the decision-maker.
After revision:  Many, if not most, contemporary modelling approaches for future technology pathways overlook most aspects of transitions theory, for instance dimensions of investor choices, dynamic rates of diffusion and the profile of transitions. A significant body of literature however exists that demonstrates how transitions follow S-shaped diffusion curves or Lotka-Volterra systems of equations. This framework is used ex-post since timescales can only be reliably obtained in cases where the transitions have already occurred, precluding its use for studying cases of interest where nascent innovations in protective niches await favourable conditions for their diffusion. Scaling parameters of transitions can in principle be derived from industrial dynamics, technology turnover rates and technology characteristics. In this context, this paper presents a theory framework for calculating the decision-maker.