Before revision:  Assuming an ICU rate of 5 \%, a time lag of 5 days and an average stay of 14 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data  and is in accord with independent estimates.
After revision:  Assuming an ICU rate of 5 \%, a time lag of 5 days and an average stay of 14 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data , for Lombardy and Madrid the ICU rate was higher (18\% and 15\%) and the time lag (0 and is in accord with independent estimates.