Before revision:  Our counterfactual experiments indicate that removing all policies would have lead to 30 to 200 times more additional cases by late May. Removing only the non-essential businesses closures (while maintaining  restrictions on movie theaters and restaurants) would have increased the weekly growth rate of cases between -0.02 and 0.06 and would have lead to -10\% to 40\% more cases by late May.
After revision:  Our counterfactual experiments indicate that removing all policies would have lead to 30 to 55 percent less deaths nationally by the end of May, which roughly translates into 17 to 55 thousand saved lives. Our estimates imply that removing non-essential businesses closures (while maintaining restrictions on movie theaters and restaurants) would have increased the weekly growth rate of cases between -0.02 and 0.06 and would have lead to -10\% to 40\% more cases by late May.