Before revision:   We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter in this model that accounts for the effects of confinement measures.
After revision:  This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease. We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter in this model that accounts for the effects of confinement measures.