Before revision: We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology.
After revision: We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. We track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology.