Before revision:  This paper shows that behavioral signatures in mobile phone data predict loan default, using call records matched to loan outcomes . In a middle income South American country, individuals in the highest quintile of risk by our measure are 2.8 times more likely to default than those in the lowest quintile. On our sample of individuals with (thin) financial histories, our method  outperforms models using credit bureau information, both within time and when tested on a different time period.
After revision:  This paper shows that behavioral signatures in mobile phone data predict loan default, using call records matched to repayment outcomes for credit extended by a South American telecom. On a sample of individuals with (thin) financial histories, our method outperforms models using credit bureau information, both within time and when tested on a different time period.