Before revision:  ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely , but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May. The trajectory of the nascent recovery, however, is highly uncertain -- particularly as COVID-19 spreads in the South and West -- and could be revised or eliminated as new data arrive .
After revision:  ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely , but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. We show, moreover, that the daily real activity path was extremely highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 spreads in the South and West -- and could be revised or eliminated as new data arrive .