Before revision:  When to implement the strictest measure is also of interest. A dynamic prediction model is proposed and a simple tool is developed for policy makers to compare different containment strategies. As an example, a region with population 2.8 million and 200 initial infectious cases is considered assuming a 4\% mortality rate .
After revision:  We consider how an effective treatment of the disease can affect the dynamics in a pandemic scenario. For illustration we consider a region with population 2.8 million and 200 initial infectious cases is considered assuming a 4\% mortality rate .