Before revision:  We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods . As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high relevance for assessing the relative performance of a wide variety of methods.
After revision:  We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high relevance for assessing the relative performance of a wide variety of methods.