Before revision:  We go on to show that the use of this proposed metric, even when included with consumer survey data, helps improve model performance significantly. This metric, in combination with consumer survey data, S P 500 returns, and the yield curve, produces forecasts that significantly outperform models of higher complexity, containing traditional economic indicators .
After revision:  We go on to show that the P 500 returns, and the yield curve, produces forecasts that significantly outperform models of higher complexity, containing traditional economic indicators .