Before revision:  We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology. We then consider entry into the Pandemic Recession, again tracking the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs. ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely , but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May.
After revision:  We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing widely , but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May.