Before revision:  We develop a causal model that summarizes the economic process of inflation and estimate the effect of CBI on inflation with modern doubly robust effect estimation techniques.We incorporate a large amount of variables in our directed acyclic graph and overcome endogeneity issues of previous studies.Our approach includes machine learning algorithms which are tailored to the question of interest and reduce the chance of model misspecification .
After revision:  We develop a causal model that summarizes the economic process of inflation and estimate the effect of CBI on inflation with modern doubly robust effect estimators, i.e., longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimators. The estimation procedure incorporates machine learning algorithms which are tailored to the question of interest and reduce the chance of model misspecification .