Before revision:  We apply the picking winners framework to the problem of choosing a portfolio of startups to invest in. This is a relevant problem due to recent policy changes in the United States which have greatly expanded the market for startup investment. We develop a novel model for the success of a startup company based on Brownian motion first passage times. We fit this model to a large amount of data on startup company founders, investors, and performance. Our model provides some qualitative insights to the features of successful startup companies.
After revision:  We apply the picking winners framework to the problem of choosing a portfolio of startup companies.