Before revision:  We  develop a heuristic that can mitigate the loss of information that sets in , when parameters are estimated first and then the valuation is performed , by directly calculating the valuation using the historical time series.
After revision:  We run numerical simulations to demonstrate the practical applicability of these models. These models are part of one of the least explored yet profit laden areas of modern investment management. We develop a heuristic that can mitigate the loss of information that sets in , when parameters are estimated first and then the valuation is performed , by directly calculating the valuation using the historical time series.