Before revision:  Models are needed to understand the implications of possible relaxation options for these measures.We report such models, together with corresponding parameter estimation techniques and prediction outcomes, borrowing insights from another domain; namely, information cascades. Our models assume that the containment of the virus into isolated locales is no longer possible. Instead, we explore options that reduce the rate of spread. We predict COVID-19 contagion trends in different geographic regions under a "what if " scenario to understand the effects of potential policy decisions on regional trends.
After revision:  Models are needed to understand the impact of manipulating the availability of social interaction venues (e.g., schools, workplaces, and retail establishments) on virus spread. We introduce a model, inspired by social networks research, that answers the above question. Our model compartmentalizes interaction venues into categories we call mixing domains, enabling one to predict COVID-19 contagion trends in different geographic regions under a "what if " scenario to understand the effects of potential policy decisions on regional trends.