Before revision:  We qualitatively discuss some conditions, beyond the scope of simple models, under which a lockdown might increase or decrease the epidemic's final toll in the real world. We conclude that SEIR models and their generalizations provide no reliable quantitative evidence that the Indian lockdown has averted any deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic.
After revision:  We qualitatively discuss some conditions, beyond the scope of simple models, under which a lockdown might increase or decrease the epidemic's final toll . Given the significance of these effects in India, and the limitations of currently available data, we conclude that simple epidemiological models cannot be used to reliably quantify the impact of the Indian lockdown on fatalities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.