Before revision:  Yet, due to the exponential nature of epidemics growth, this simplification can  lead to inaccurate predictions and/or risk evaluation , thus begging the question: how large is the  impact of this simplification on predictions and risk estimates? How can this variability be percolated in the projections for the pandemics so as to provide a more accurate uncertainty quantification ?
After revision:  Yet, due to the exponential nature of epidemics growth, this simplification can lead to inaccurate predictions and/or risk evaluation , thus begging the question: how large is the impact of this averaging remains an open question: how can this intrinsic variability be percolated in the projections for the pandemics so as to provide a more accurate uncertainty quantification ?