Before revision:  Two way fixed-effects regression estimates suggest that orders were associated with a 3.9 percentage point (95\% CI 1.2 to 6.6 ) reduction in the growth rate after one week and an 6.9 percentage point (2.4 to 11.5 ) reduction after two weeks . By day 27 the reduction (22.6 percentage points, 14.8 to 30.5) had surpassed the growth at the peak, indicating that growth had turned negative and the number of new daily infections was beginning to decline. A hypothetical national stay-at-home order issued on March 13 , 2020 when a national emergency was declared might have reduced cumulative infections by 63.3\%, and might have helped to reverse exponential growth in the disease by April 10.
After revision:  Two way fixed-effects regression estimates suggest that orders were associated with a 3.9 percentage point (95\% CI 1.2 to 6.6 ) reduction in the growth rate after one week and an 6.9 percentage point (2.4 to 11.5 ) reduction after two weeks , 2020 when a national emergency was declared might have reduced cumulative infections by 63.3\%, and might have helped to reverse exponential growth in the disease by April 10.