Before revision:  Through a simple approach that borrows ideas from epidemiology, we show how to combine a compartmental model of disease spreading with public polling data to forecast gubernatorial, senatorial, and presidential elections at the state level. Our results for the 2012 and 2016 U.S. races are largely in agreement with those of popular forecasters, and we use our new model to explore how subjective choices about uncertainty impact results.
After revision:  Through a simple approach that borrows ideas from epidemiology, and we use polling data from United States elections to determine its parameters. Surprisingly, our general model performs as well as popular forecasters for the 2012 and 2016 U.S. races are largely in agreement with those of popular forecasters, and we use our new model to explore how subjective choices about uncertainty impact results.