Before revision:  At the time of writing  , the number of fatalities in Italy is expected to be 6000, and the crisis ends before April 15  , 2020.
After revision:  At the time of writing , the number of fatalities in Italy is expected to be 6000, and the crisis ends before April 15 , 2020. In this new version, we discuss what changed in the two weeks which passed since then. The trend changed drastically on March 17, 2020, when the Italian health system reached its capacity limit. Without this limit, probably 3500 more people would have died. Instead, due to the limitations, 17.000 people are expected to die now, which is a five-fold increase. The predicted end of the crisis now shifted to May 8 , 2020.