Before revision:  The model provides baseline estimates of the number of death registrations expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, and comparing the baselines to actual counts of recently registered deaths reveals the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020.
After revision:  The model provides baseline rates of death registrations expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, and comparing the baselines to actual counts of recently registered deaths reveals the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020.