Before revision:  Assuming an ICU rate of 5 \%, a time lag of 5 days and an average stay of 14 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data  and is in accord with independent estimates. Our model is then used to predict future ICU load assuming  a continued exponential phase with varying growth rates (0-15\%) .
After revision:  Assuming an ICU rate of 5 \%, a time lag of 5 days and an average stay of 14 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data and 3 days) and the average stay (4 and 8 days) in ICU shorter. The region-specific models are then used to predict future ICU load assuming a continued exponential phase with varying growth rates (0-15\%) .