Before revision: Many epidemiological models predict high morbidity levels based on an epidemic's fast initial spread rate . However, most epidemics with a rapid early rise die out before affecting a significant fraction of the population .
After revision: Many epidemiological models predict high morbidity levels based on an epidemic's fast initial spread rate often fail to predict the true scale of that epidemic. Most epidemics with a rapid early rise die out before affecting a significant fraction of the population .