Before revision:  We show that the logarithmic trading price process is a renewal reward process, and that, under a suitable scaling, this renewal reward process converges to a standard Brownian motion \to \to0 . Finally, we develop a GBM asymptotic model for trading prices, and derive a simple and effective prediction formula . We illustrate the effectiveness of the prediction methods with an example using real stock price data.
After revision:  We show that the logarithmic trading price process is a renewal reward process, and that, under a suitable scaling, this renewal reward process converges to a standard Brownian motion \to \to0 . Finally, we develop a GBM asymptotic model for trading prices, and derive a simple and effective prediction formula for trading prices, and illustrate the effectiveness of the prediction methods with an example using real stock price data.