Before revision:  In this perspective, instead of considering a single, fixed R, we model the reproductive number as a distribution sampled from a simple Bayesian hierarchical model . Using our fitted model, we then simulate the spread of the epidemic as well as the impact of different social distancing strategies, and highlight the strong impact of this added variability on the reported results.
After revision:  In this paper, we propose to study this question through a Bayesian perspective, creating a bridge between the agent-based and compartmental approaches commonly used in the literature. After deriving a Bayesian model that captures at scale the heterogeneity of a population and environmental conditions, we simulate the spread of the epidemic as well as the impact of different social distancing strategies, and highlight the strong impact of this added variability on the reported results.