Figure 2A | hFwe-Lose biomarker expression is more abundant in nasopharyngeal swab probes from older adults. hFwe-Lose expression was analyzed by RT-qPCR in 283 nasopharyngeal swab samples taken from patients with age between 1 and 96 years, taken at the very beginning of the disease (the earliest contact with physician, before the disease progression). The vertical axis represents relative hFwe-Lose expression normalized to the mean of non-hospitalized patients. Colors depict the outcome groups: non-hospitalized (gray, n = 85), hospitalized (blue, n = 177) and deceased (red, n = 21). The shape of data points reflects the cohorts: circles for the training cohort (n = 203) and triangles for the validation cohort (n = 80). The lines show the fitted curves of an asymptotic model with the same asymptotic value but different rate constants per group (see Materials and Methods). Due to the comparatively low number of deceased patients in the dataset (n = 21), the curve for this group reflects the asymptotic value. Hospitalized and deceased patients show a positive correlation of hFwe-Lose expression and age with a larger rate constant for the hospitalized patients. (R2= 0.65) The p-value (< 0.001) indicates that the blue curve (for hospitalized patients) grows faster with age, compared to the gray curve for non-hospitalized patients). B | hFwe-Lose expression is elevated in nasopharyngeal swab probes from patients with comorbidities. Box plots illustrate an increased relative expression of hFwe-Lose in nasopharyngeal swabs of patients with diabetes (n = 129), COPD (n = 20), obesity (BMI > 30; n = 152), cardiomyopathy ("CM", n = 19), heart failure ("HF", n = 35), hypertension ("HT", n = 121), chronic kidney disease ("CKD", n = 60) versus disease-free patients (n = 96). Two-sided Student's t-tests were performed (compared to disease-free patients), and p-values are presented on the plot. The vertical axis represents relative hFwe-Lose expression normalized to the mean of non-hospitalized patients. The color refers to the COVID-19 disease outcome: gray for not hospitalised, blue for hospitalised and red for deceased patients. The shape of data points reflects the cohorts: circles for the training cohort (n = 203) and triangles for the validation cohort (n = 80). The central band shows the median, the box indicates the interquartile range, the whiskers extend to the most extreme points within the 1.5-fold distance of the interquartile range above and below the box. C | An age- and sex-adjusted statistical model suggests hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease to have the highest impact on hFwe-Lose expression. A linear regression model was created to account the patient's age upon analysis of hFwe-Lose expression in relation to comorbidity status. "Other comorbidity" refers to a cumulative effect of diseases or conditions, not directly associated with COVID-19 (cancer, Down syndrome, solid organ transplant, sickle cell disease, bone marrow transplant). The plot illustrates the effect of selected comorbidities (horizontal axis) on relative hFwe-Lose expression (vertical axis). The p-values of the respective linear models for all significant comorbidities are presented on the plot. The error bars represent the 95% confidence interval. D | Elevated hFwe-Lose expression in the nasal swab samples associates with patients' condition severity and respective medical treatment. Box plots illustrate an increased expression of hFwe-Lose in nasal swabs of patients, who were hospitalized within 14 days of disease progression (n = 177), admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) (n = 34), underwent intubation (n = 58), had respiratory rate greater than 30 (GT30) (n = 76), had blood oxygenation level (SpO2) less than 94% (n = 147), and who died within 30 days of disease progression (n = 21) versus patients without respective conditions. Pairwise two-sided Student's t-tests were performed (compared to patients without respective conditions), and p-values are presented on the plot. The vertical axis represents hFwe-Lose expression normalized to the mean of non-hospitalized patients. The color refers to the COVID-19 disease outcome: gray for not hospitalised, blue for hospitalised and red for deceased patients. The shape of data points reflects the cohorts: circles for the training cohort (n = 203) and triangles for the validation cohort (n = 80). The central band shows the median, the box indicates the interquartile range, the whiskers extend to the most extreme points within the 1.5-fold distance of the interquartile range above and below the box. E |Elevated hFwe-Lose expression in nasal swab associates with patients' disease outcome. Box plot emphasizes an increased expression of hFwe-Lose in nasal swabs of patients, who were hospitalized within 14 days of disease progression (n = 177), and who died within 30 days of disease progression (n = 21) versus patients without respective conditions. Two-sided Student's t-tests were performed (compared to non-hospitalised patients), and p-values are presented on the plot. The vertical axis represents hFwe-Lose expression normalized to the mean of non-hospitalized patients. The color refers to the COVID-19 disease outcome: gray for not hospitalised, blue for hospitalised and red for deceased patients. The shape of data points reflects the cohorts: circles for the training cohort (n = 203) and triangles for the validation cohort (n = 80). The central band shows the median, the box indicates the interquartile range, the whiskers extend to the most extreme points within the 1.5-fold distance of the interquartile range above and below the box. F | The logistic model predicts probability of hospitalization based on hFwe-Lose expression in nasal swab samples. This model predicts a >50% chance of hospitalisation for people (otherwise still healthy, not yet infected with COVID-19), who have a hFwe-Lose expression in their nasal swab samples >1.82 than the mean of non-hospitalized patients. p-value of the logistic model < 0.001. The gray area shows the 95% confidence band.