Cover
VALUATION OF
ETHANOLTECHNOLOGIESLIMITED乙醇技术有限公司评估
[21 FEBRUARY2017]
[2017年 2月 21日]
DRAFT草案
Draft forDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation of Ethanol TechnologiesLimited乙醇技术有限公司估值
Contents目录
1.ExecutiveSummary经营综合报告 3
2.Introduction介绍 7
3. Backgroundto theBusiness业务背景 9
4.ValuationMethodology评估方法 12
5.EthanolPlantAssumptions乙醇工厂的假设 13
6. Ethtec BaseCaseAssumptionsEthtec基本情况的假设 17
7.DiscountRate贴现率 22
8.EnterpriseValue企业价值 24
9.ScenarioAnalysis方案分析 26
10. ScenarioOutputandConclusion方案产出和结论 29
11.ValuationSummary评估小结 31
Appendix1:Glossary附件1术语表 32
Appendix2: StandardsofValue附件2价值标准 33
Appendix3: LevelsofValue附件3价值水平 36
Appendix4:ValuationApproaches附件4评估方法 38
Appendix5:EthanolPlantProjections附件5乙醇工厂的预测 42
Appendix6:Ethanol/XylitolMixedPlantProjections附件6乙醇/木糖醇混合工厂的预测 44
Appendix7: Ethtec Projections-BaseCase附件7Ethtec预测-基本情况 46
Appendix8: Ethtec Projections-UpsideCase附件8Ethtec预测-上行情况 48
Appendix9: Ethtec Projections-LowCase附件9Ethtec预测-下行情况 50
Appendix10: Ethtec Projections-FailureCase附件10Ethtec预测-失败情况 52
Appendix11:DiscountRateFramework附件11贴现率框架 53
Appendix12: WeightedAverageCost ofCapital附件12加权平均资本成本 55
Appendix13:Disclaimers附件13免责声明 57
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估 Ethtec资产评估
1. ExecutiveSummary经营综合报告
1.1Background背景
Ethanol iswidelyaccepted asanimportant componentof theglobaldesire toreducedependenceon fossilfuels suchas petroleum fuels. Asa result ofsustainabilityissuesassociated withfirstgenerationbiofuels madefrom edibleagricultural feedstocks (“1G”), manycountries(suchas Australia, US, China, Brazil) are seeking technologyto move awayfromfood crop-based biofuelsandinto second generationethanolproduction(“2G”)whichusesnon-food crops (or partsof crops) and agricultural waste materialasfeedstocks.作为减少化石燃料（石油燃料）依赖的潜在替代品，乙醇在全球范围内受到广泛重点关注。因为第一代由食用农业原料（“1代”）制成的生物燃料存在可持续性问题，许多国家，如澳大利亚、美国、中国、巴西，正在寻求一种技术，抛弃以作物为基础的生物燃料，进入二代的乙醇产品（“2代”），该乙醇产品使用非农作物(或部分农作物)和农业废料作为原料。
Ethanol TechnologiesLimited ("Ethtec") is developingtechnology(the"Ethtec Process")
forsustainableproductionofethanol fromlignocellulosic (woodyand fibrous) materialsin significant volumes to meet fuel demand(the “Project”). Ifsuccessful,theProjectisanticipated toaddress
manyissuestypicallyassociatedwith2Gethanolproduction suchas:
乙醇技术有限公司（简称Ethtec）正在开发一种技术（Ethtec工艺），实现可持续地从木质纤维(木材和纤维)材料中大量生产乙醇，以满足燃料需求（“项目”）。若该技术成功，预计项目会解决许多与2代乙醇生产有关的典型问题，如：◆ Production of ethanol at a cost thatis competitive (without subsidy)withpetroleum fuelsderived from crude
oilafter paying areasonableprice forthefeedstock成本问题：在支付合理的原料费之后，在无任何补贴的情况下，乙醇生产成本可与来自原油的石油燃料的成本相媲美；
◆ Zero liquidwastewhich mayreducethe environmentalimpact of ethanol productionandenhance thenetreductionin greenhouse gasemissionobtained fromtheuse ofethanolasfuel零废液：可能降低乙醇生产对环境产生的影响，并且使用乙醇作为燃料，会大大减少温室气体的排放量；
◆ Compared withother proposed processes(whichtypicallyuseenzymesto releasethe structural sugars) theEthtec process willutiliseacid hydrolysistoreleasethe sugarsfromfeedstock which meanstheprocess is insensitivetothe type of feedstock utilisedand canacceptawidevarietyof feedstock inputs, includingmixedinputs.与其他拟议的工艺相比（通常用酶来分解结构糖），Ethtec工艺会利用酸解反应来释放原料中的糖，这就是说该工艺对使用的原料不敏感，并且能接受各种各样的原料，包括混合原料。
The Project includes four principlephases,of whichthe first twohave been successfullydemonstrated andinvolvedthe mostnovelaspectsofthetechnology. Phase 3and4involve processeswhichareexpected tohave significantlyless technical risk astheypertainto morewidelytestedtechniques,namely, fermentation of the sugarsto ethanol, ethanol recoveryandwaste treatment. Thework completedtodate couldbe commerciallyexploitedeitherthroughlicensingthe existing processesfor a number of end usesor alternativelylicensingprocessesthat Ethtecintendsto developunder Phases3and4.项目包含4个主要阶段，其中前两个阶段已获成功，并涉及技术中最不寻常的方面。阶段3和阶段4涉及一些工艺，期望这些工艺在涉及更广泛的成熟技术时，能少些技术风险，也即：糖酵成乙醇，乙醇回收和废物处理。到目前为止完成的工作可进行商业开发，要么可通过将下面有工艺授权给一些终端用户，或取代工艺授权，Ethtec意欲在阶段3和阶段4中自己开发。
1.2Scope范围
Ethtec is currentlyseekingadditional capital tofund thenext phase of developmentandisin preliminarynegotiationswith a thirdpartyinrespectof a potentialequityinvestment. Accordingly,weunderstand that an independent valuation of the Ethtec Businessis requiredbythedirectors of Ethtec inordertoassistinnegotiating theterms of the potentialinvestmentin Ethtec. Ethtec hastherefore requestedLeadenhall Corporate Advisory PtyLtd(“Leadenhall”)toprepare areportsetting out
ouropinionas tothe market valueofEthtecas at a currentdate.Ethtec当前正为下一阶段的研发寻求额外资金，并正与一个第三方就潜在的股权投资进行磋商。我们理解：为了有助于磋商该潜在股权投资的条款，Ethtec的董事们要求对Ethtec的业务进行一次独立评估。因此，Ethtec已要求Leadenhall企业咨询企业有限公司（Leadenhall）准备一份报告，载明就当前时间我方对Ethtec市值的意见。
1.3 Valuation approach andkeyassumptions评估方法和关键性假设
Due tothe earlystagenature of theProjectandthe widerangeofpotentialoutcomes, we haveutilised aprobability
weighted discounted cash flowapproach toassessthe market value oftheProject.由于项目早期阶段的属性及广泛的
不确定结果，我们应用了概率加权现金贴现的方法，来评估项目的市值。
We understand that the approach for commercialising the Project is not yet certainas anumber of models maybe
considered includinglicensing theintellectual property("IP")tothirdparties or creatingjoint ventures withother stakeholders
(suchas resourceowners,equipment manufacturers andoff-takeparticipants)to share intheeconomicsoftheplants.我们知道项目商业化的方法还未确定，因为考虑了许多模式，包括将知识产权(“IP”)授与第三方，或与其他利益相关者（如资源所有者、设备制造商和承购参与者）建立合资企业，分享工厂的经济效益。
Forthepurpose of our analysis,wedetermined thereturnsto Ethtecfrom commercialisationinthe formofaroyalty payment. In determininganappropriate royaltyrate wehave considered the cash flowsavailableand theprofitabilityofthe
underlyingplants/business toestimate anappropriate shareoftheeconomic profitsto Ethtecas the owner of the IP.
就我们的分析而言，我们确定了Ethtec以特许权使用费的形式进行商业化的回报。在确定合适的特许权使用费费率时，我们考虑了可用的现金流以及基础工厂/企业的盈利能力，从而恰当评估授权知识产权带给Ethtec的经济利润。
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
In applyingthisapproach wehave consideredthe followingscenarios:在应用这种方法时，我们考虑了以下方案:
BaseCase基本情况
The ethanolproductionvolumes assumedinthe base casereflectthepotentialdemand fromwithin Australia (includinga nationwide mandatefor use of ethanolinfuelblendsofupto10%)althoughit ispossible that thesevolumes couldbe generated througha combinationofdomesticand internationalplantcapacitywith Ethtecproviding thetechnical expertise andongoing researchto support thetechnology.
基本情况下的设定的乙醇产量反映了澳大利亚国内的潜在需求，包括全国范围内乙醇燃料的使用需求最高可达10%，虽然在Ethtec提供技术知识，并不断进行研究，以支持该技术的情况下，结合国内外产能，这些产量极可能实现的。
Ethtec havealso considered co-production of xylitol aspart oftheir earlystage commercialisation strategy. Xylitol represents anattractive market given thegrowing trendin alternative sweeteners, the current high costsofxylitol production and Ethtec'spotentiallylowercostsofproduction.Ethtec还考虑将木糖醇联合生产作为其早期商业化战略的一部分。考虑到日趋明朗化的趋势----木糖醇替代甜味剂、当前木糖醇生产的高成本以及 Ethtec潜在的低生产成本，木糖醇展示了一个有吸引力的市场。
This scenarioispremised ontheprojections presentedby Ethtec initsfunding applicationtothe AustralianRenewable EnergyAgency("ARENA"). Under this scenario,thefirst Ethtecplant will bea mixedethanol/xylitol co-productionplantand all subsequent Ethtec plantswillproduce onlyethanol(no co-products) withthenumberof plantslimited byan assumed levelof Australiandemandforethanolfuel. Ethtecwillthen drawa shareof profits fromeach of theseplants through aroyaltyon sales. We haveassessedareasonableroyaltytobe[6.0%]to[7.0%] based ontheprojected economics of an
ethanolplant.Thisroyaltyrepresentsan equitable sharing of the economicprofits betweenEthtec,resource
owners,equipment providers andproductoff-takeparticipants havingregard totheirrelative contribution.
该方案是基于Ethtec在其向澳大利亚可再生能源机构(ARENA)的资助申请中所提出的预测。在该方案中，Ethtec的首个工厂将会是一个乙醇/木糖醇联合生产工厂，并且Ethtec在此之后的所有工厂将只生产乙醇(无副产品)，而由于预估中澳大利亚对乙醇燃料的需求，这些工厂的数量是有限的。然后，Ethtec将通过销售专利使用费，从这些工厂中抽取一部分利润。基于一个乙醇工厂的经济预估，我们评估的合理的专利使用费为6.0%到7.0%。对于Ethtec、资源所有者、设备提供商和产品承购参与者（考虑其相应的出资）来首，
该专利使用费是他们之间对经济利润的公平分享。
UpsideCase上行情况
While thebase caseproductionvolumes areinline withthe potentialdomesticdemand,it isprobable that theEthtec Process willbe commercialised outsideof Australia toaddressthe significant demandfor2Gtechnologiesin jurisdictions such asUS, China andBrazil. Whilst no detailedanalysisofthelikelyprofileofanyinternational projectshas been made available
tous,basedondiscussions withEthtec management,wehave estimatedareasonable take-up of the technologyto
befourtimesthatof Australia over time.
虽然基本情况下的产量与潜在的国内需求相符，但Ethtec的工艺很有可能将在澳大利亚以外的地方进行商业化，以解决美国、中国和巴西等国对2代技术的巨大需求。虽然Ethtec管理层还未对任何国际项目的可能情况进行详细的分析，但我们估计，随着时间的推移，这项技术的应用将是澳大利亚国内的四倍。
In addition, Ethtec managementbelievethata cost-effectivexylitol productionprocess (such asthrough theEthtec
Process)willenableexpansion of thexylitol market andfuel further demandforxylitolasa sugar alternative. Wehave
therefore incorporatedinternational royaltiesfromutilisation of theEthtec Process anda royaltyon sales of xylitol from two plantsinto our upside case.
此外，Ethtec的管理层相信：一种具有成本效益的木糖醇生产工艺(如通过Ethtec工艺)将使木糖醇市场扩大，并进一加剧木糖醇作为糖替代品的需求。因此，我们已将使用Ethtec工艺的国际专利使用费以及两个工厂的木糖醇销售专利使用费结合到了我们的上涨情况中。
LowCase
The successful completionof Phases3and 4of theresearch anddevelopment oftheEthtecProcessincludes demonstrating particular levels of efficiencyat fermenting Ethtec sugarsolutionsto ethanolatcommercial scale aswell as demonstratingthe commercial advantagesina combinedethanolrecoveryandwastetreatmentprocess.Basedon the documentationprovided anddiscussions withEthtec management, should these processes proveless efficient than
envisaged,commercialisationoftheEthtecProcess would still beachievablebyincorporatingexisting thirdparty processes or technologyinto theEthtecProcessand / or through commercialising other productswhich could alsobe developed fromthe sameprocess. There aretherefore awiderange of potential outcomes, inthis instance, in termsofethanol /
xylitolproductionvolumes(which could stillaligntotheBase caseor UpsideCaseas per above) and/ or pricing and
volumesfrom commercialisationof otherproducts such asxylitolonly,bioplastics, etc. As wehave not specifically considered
other potentialproducts or marketsto commercialise theexistingtechnology(whichwould likelyhave alower addressable
market and / or margins),wehave thereforeimplicitlyreflected thispotential inour assessed royaltyrate. As such,for
thepurpose of this scenario,wehaveassumed productionvolumesatsimilar scaleto thebase case,albeit with higherplant
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
operating costsand implicitlylowerroyaltyrevenuesavailable toEthtec.A lowerroyaltyreturn of[2.0%] to[3.0%]has
beenapplied inthis scenarioreflecting thesefactors.
Ethtec工艺研发中，阶段3和阶段4的成功实施，包括证明在商业规模下，使用发酵的Ethtec糖溶液转化成特定浓度乙醇的效率，以及证明混合乙醇回收和废物处理过程中的商业优势。基于提供的文档以及与Ethtec管理层的讨论，得知这些过程应该比设想的效率更低，但通过现有的第三方工艺整个到Ethtec工艺中，以及/或通过商业化同一个工艺中的其它产品，Ethtec工艺的商业化仍然可实现。因此在此例中，存在很多潜在结果，比如从乙醇/木糖醇的产量(仍然可以对应到基本情况或上行情况中的每种情况)和/或定价，以及其它产品的商业化，如木糖醇，生物塑料等。因为我们没有特别考虑其他可能影响现有技术商业化（可能会有一个更低可寻址市场和/或利润率）的产品或市场，因此我们已在经评估的专利了费率中含蓄地反映了这点。所以就这个设想来说，尽管有更高的工厂运营成本，也暗暗地降低了Ethtec的版税收入，我们假设产量与基本情况相似。在反映这些因素的方案中，应用了较低版税收益率[2.0%]到[3.0%]。
FailureCase失败情况
The final scenariowhichwe haveincludedinouranalysisaccountsfor thefailure of theproject to reachaneconomically viable commercialisation stage.There couldbe variousfactors contributingtothis outcomeincluding technicalbarriers and alack of funding. Forthepurposeofthisanalysis, we haveassumedthattheproject is discontinuedat the endof2021 (theexpectedend point of the researchanddevelopmentproject) withno commercially-viableethanolproduction processes developed. However,giventhat the technologycouldbe commerciallyexploitedin its currentform,wehave applied alowprobabilitytothis scenario.
我们的分析中包含的最后一个方案，解释了项目为何没能达到经济上可行的商业化。可能会有各种因素导致这一结果，包括技术壁垒和资金短缺。就本分析而言，我们假定该项目在2021年年底（研发项目的预期终点）停止，同时不存在可行的商业化乙醇生产过程。然而，考虑到这项技术可以以目前的形式进行商业开发，我们在这个方案下使用了一个低概率。
Details of the underlyingassumptionsforeach scenarioare set out in Section9.
第9节列出了每个方案中设想的详细情况。
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
We haveassignedthe followingprobabilitiestoeach scenariobasedondiscussion withEthtec management and consideration of the relativerisks for eachscenario:在与Ethtec管理层讨论，并考虑每个方案的相对风险之后，我们为每个方案分配了如下概率：
||
|-|
|ProbabilityWeighting概率加权|
|Scenarios情况 Probability概率|
|BaseCase 50%|
|UpsideCase 20%|
|LowCase 25%|
|FailureCase失败 5%|

1.4 Outputs andcalculations产出和计算
The outputsfrom our analysisare set outbelow:我们的分析结果如下：
||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|
|Scenario Output ($'000)方案产出|||||
|Enterprise Value企业价值Scenarios方案 Evaluation评估 Probability概率|||||
|Low低 High高|||||
|Base case|♦|Mostlikelyoutcomegiventhelowremainingtechnical 50% 45,376 52,857|||
|基本情况||risks of the project, as advisedbyEthtec, and theinterest|||
|in theprojectshownbypotentialinvestors就如Ethtec的建议|||||
|一样，最有可能的结果是该项目的技术风险较低，并且潜在投资者表|||||
|现出对该项目的兴趣。|||||
||♦|The underlyingassumptionsinthis scenariogenerally|||
|||representreasonablylikelyor conservative|||
|||estimatesoffutureperformance本方案中的假设基本显示了对未来绩|||
|||效的合理可能评估或保守评估|||
|Upside case|♦|Given the significant ramp-upinforecast revenue under 20% 110,190 128,742|||
|上行情况||this scenarioandthe levelof uncertaintyinvolvedin|||
|||estimating take-up rates for two distinctproduction processes|||
|||(ethanolandxylitol) which are stillin development,wehaveassigned|||
|||this scenarioalow probabilityweighting考虑到在本方案下预测收入的大幅|||
|||增长以及不确定性的程度，涉及估计两种不同生产工艺（仍在开发中）的吸纳率|||
|||（乙醇和木糖醇），我们已给该方案分配了一个低概率加权。|||
||♦||||
|||In addition, xylitol is stilla relativelynewopportunityfor Ethtec|||
|||(comparedto ethanol) whichhas not been explored ingreat detail|||
|||In addition, xylitol is still a relatively new opportunity for Ethtec|||
|||(compared to ethanol) which has not been explored in great detail|||
|||此外，木糖醇虽然没有大规模开发（与乙醇相比），但对于Ethtec|||
|||仍是一个新机遇。|||
|Lowcase|♦|From discussionwithEthtec management, it isbelieved 25% 12,302 19,880|||
|下行情况||thatit is morelikelyforcommercial scale testingto|||
|||produce less-than-optimal production efficienciesthan for the|||
|||entireEthtec Processtobe considered commercially unfeasible. As|||
|||such, we considerthis scenariolesslikely than thebase case but|||
|||morelikelythanthefailure case基于与Ethtec管理的讨论，我们认为商业规|||
|||模测试的生产效率要低于整个Ethtec工艺的生产效率，Ethtec工艺在商业上被认|||
|||为是不可行的。因此，我们认为这种情况比基本情况更少，但比失败案例可能性|||
|||却更大。|||
|Failure case|♦|Given the current stageof theproject, the lowremaining 5% (6,530) (6,530)|||
|失败情况||technical risks, the ongoing ARENAfundingapplication|||
|||and interest from other investors,this scenario appearsto|||
|bereasonablyunlikely虑到项目当前阶段的现状、遗留的技术方面的低风险、|||||
|阿瑞娜（ARENA）正在审核的融资申请，以及其他投资者的利益，这个方案似乎|||||
|不太可能发生。下表格详细描述了每个所选的概率值以及每个方案评估值的假设。|||||
|||||47,475 56,821|
|Probabilityweightedvalue|||概率加权值||

DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
||||
|-|-|-|
|Assessedvalue($'000)估定价值($'000)|||
|Low||High|
|Probabilityweightedvalue概率|[47,475]|[56,821]|
|Assessedvalue估定价值加权值|[50,000]|[60,000]|

In selectingour assessedvaluation rangewehave considered theprobabilityweightingsaboveaswellas:在选择估定价值范围的时候，我们已经考虑了上面的概率权重，以及:
◆ The potentialforfurther developmentand commercialisationoftheDiesehol technology. This technologywouldallow ethanol tobeblendedwithdiesel fuelinvarying degreesforuseineither existingdiesel enginesor engineswith minor modifications.Wenote that this couldbe a sizable marketopportunitybut is subject to significant
uncertaintyinrespectofwhenor if thiswillbe commercialisedandthe modelfor doing so. Our
scenariosabovedonotincludeanyrevenue fromDiesohol进一步开发和商业化柴油乙醇技术的潜力。这种技术可以使乙醇任意与柴油混合，用于现有的柴油发动机或小幅改良发动机。我们注意到，这可能是一个相当大的市场基于机遇，但就何时或是否会商业化以及商业户模型方面仍有存在很不确定性。上述方案不含任何与柴油有关的收入。
◆ To theextenttheProject is successful, Ethtecwould likelybe adesirableacquisition target for a number of large corporations (suchasenergycompanies,equipment manufacturersor resource owners) that maybe willingtopaya strategic premiumgiven thepotential synergies that maybe availablebased onexistinginstalled capacityand/or
cheaperaccesstofeedstock若项目成功，Ethtec很可能成为一个令许多大公司（例如能源公司、设备制造商或资源所有者）满意的收购目标，这些大公司在有潜在的协同效应的情况下，愿意支付战略溢价，而协同效应在现有的装机容量和/或更便宜的原料渠道下，是可行的。
We notethat our assessed valuerangeis subject to anumber of upside anddownsiderisksasfollows:
我们注意到：我们的评估值范围受一些上行和下行风险的影响，比如:
|||
|-|-|
|Valuationsummary评估小结||
|Upside risks上行风险|Downside risks下行风险|
|◆ International opportunitycouldbe muchgreaterthan included|◆ International opportunityand xylitol markets are untested|
|inour assessment国家上的机会要比我们的评估中的多的多。|with limiteddiligence todate到目前为止，国际机会和木糖|
|◆ Assumptions adoptedforvaluationpurposein thebase case|醇市场尚未经过严格检验|
|includeanelementof conservatism在base case中用于评估的假设|◆ Impactof regulation (mayinclude import dutiesin|
||internationalmarkets)监管的影响(可能包括国际市场的进口|
|包含了保守因素||
||关税)|
|◆ Strategic purchaser maybe willingtopaya significantpremium||
||◆ Competitive responsefrom existing2Gtechnologies|
|toaccessthetechnologyis seentobe||
|superiortootheroptionsavailable战略性购买者可能愿意支付相当|ornewentrants现有2代技术或新进入市者的竞争响应|
|高的溢价，以获得这项我们认为优于其他的技术|◆ Substantial uncertaintyinrespectof accessing required|
|◆ Diesohol opportunityhas not been quantified柴油所带来的机遇还没|fundingtobuild assumedlevelof plants在获取所需资金从而|
|有被量化|建设设定水平的工厂方面存在重大不确定性|
||◆ Unproven marketingand distribution capability未经证实的营销能|

力和销售能力
1.5Leadenhallcontacts与伦敦肉类市场的联系
[Signature签字] [Signature签字]
DavePearson Richard Norris
Director Director
Dave.Pearson@leadenhall.com.au Richard.Norris@leadenhall.com.au
+61291991103 +61288236224
Unless otherwise stated, all financialdatais in Australiandollarsin$'000and subject torounding.
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
除另有约定外，一切财务数据都是以澳大利元$'000计，并四舍五入取整。
This report hasbeen preparedon thebasisof afinancial year endof 30 June("FY")
本报告中所涉财务年截止6月30日(“财年”)
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估 Ethtec资产评估
2. Introduction介绍
2.1Purpose愿景
Ethtec hasrequested Leadenhalltoprepare avaluation ofa100% controllinginterestof Ethtecas at a current date. We understand thisvaluationis requiredfor capital raisingpurposes. Itshouldnot be usedfor anyotherpurposeunless
Leadenhall hasprovided written consent. Weare not responsibleto Ethtec, oranyother third party, whetherfor our
negligence or otherwise, ifthereport is usedbyanyother partyorfor anyother purpose.
Ethtec已要求Leadenhall准备Ethtec100%控股利益的资产评估(截至当前日期)。我们理解：为筹集资金，这种资产评估是必需的。除非Leadenhall提供书面同意，否则该评估不得用于其他用途。若本报告被任何其他方或以任何其它目的使用，无论是否因我方疏忽或其他原因，我方对Ethtec或任何其他第三方不负任何责任。
2.2Scope范围
In accordancewithprofessional standard APES 225Valuation Services, thisreport has beenpreparedasa limited scope valuation engagement, whichis anengagement orassignment toperform avaluationand provideavaluationreportwhere the scopeofworkislimited or restricted. We considerthistobe alimited scopevaluation engagement because
thevaluationispremised aroundanumber ofsimplifyingassumptionsand/or limitationswhichare commonfor aproject /technologyat this stageofdevelopment. These includethe following:
依照专业标准APES225资产评估服务，本资产评估是按照一个有限资产评估约定编制的，而有限资产评估约定是一个执行资产评估并提供评估报告（其中工作范围是有限的或受限的）的约定或任务。我们认为这是一个有限范围的估值义务，因为评估的前提是围绕一系列的简化假设和/或限制，而这在当前开发阶段的项目/技术中是常见的。
◆ We havenotsought, nor are wequalified to, independentlyassess thelegal protectionandtechnical meritsof the technologyor available substitutes. Nothing has come to our attention based on our analysis of the independent assessments of the technology undertaken as part of the ARENA funding application which would cause us to doubt the proposed technical merits of theproject我们没有寻求，也没有资格，独立评估该技术或其它可用的替代技术的合法保护和技术优势。作为阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请的一部分，我们对该技术的独立评估进行了分析，没有什么能引起我们的注意，而该融资申请让我们对该项目的技术优点产生怀疑。
◆ We havenotassessedthe technicalissues to successful completion of the development ofEthtec'stechnology我们还未评估能成功完成Ethtec技术开发的技术问题
◆ We haveassumed that theapplication for ARENA funding issuccessful我们假定阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请成功◆ There areanumberof potentialavenues to commercialisethe technology. We havenot soughtto modelallpotential structures but insteadforthepurposeofour analysishave analysedarelativelysimplisticroyalty/ licensingmodel该技术商业化地途径很多。我们并没有试图对所有潜在的结构进行建模，但却为了验证，我们分析了一个相对简单的版税/许可模型。
◆ We haveonlyundertakena high-levelanalysisof the cash flowassumptionsandwehighlightthat small changesina numberof assumptions canhavea significant impacton thecalculatedoutcome我们只对现金流假设进行了高级分析，并强调一些假设中的小变化会对计算结果产生重大影响。
As aresult of these limitationsour opinionhasbeen expressedasawider range thanit wouldhave beenif additional
procedures hadbeen undertaken. Wehave agreedwithEthtec to make theserestrictionsin order tolimitthe costof the valuation exercise. Itispossiblethatif additionalanalysis wasundertaken our conclusion could changematerially.由于这些限制，我们的意见已被表示为更广泛的范围
|||
|-|-|
|Scope ofvaluation analysis||
|估值分析的范围||
||Levelofanalysis分析等级|
|Procedure步骤||
||None无 Limited有限的 Extensive大量的|
|Undertaken interviewswith management to understandthe business|/|
|为了了解业务，与管理层进行了面谈||

Independentassessmentofrelevanteconomies对相关经济进行了独立评估 /
|||
|-|-|
|Analysed public informationrelating tothe industry, customers and competitors|/|
|分析了与行业、客户和竞争对手相关的公共信息||

Preparedadetailedindustryanalysis准备了详细的行业分析 /
|||
|-|-|
|Assessed the company's servicesand market position评估公司的服务和市场地位|/|

Assessed the strengthofthe company'sintellectualproperty评估公司知识产权的实力 /
4957 Ethtec Valuation (draft) 21022017 Page 10 of
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
|||
|-|-|
|Assessed thetechnical challengesin developing commercial-scaletechnology|/|
|评估了发展商业规模技术的技术挑战||

Considered thepastandprojectedoperatingresults考虑过去以及所预测的营业成绩 /
|||
|-|-|
|Analysed current financial position分析了当前的财务状况|/|

Discussed andunderstoodassumptionson whichforecasts maybebased /
讨论并理解作为预测基础的假设
|||
|-|-|
|Independentlyassessed forecastassumptions独立评估了预测设想|/|

Tested arithmetic compilationofforecastbasedon statedassumptions /验证了基于上述设想预测的算法
|||
|-|-|
|Considered longer term growthprospects考虑了长期增长的前景|/|

Selected anappropriate valuationmethodology选择了合适的估值方法 /
|||
|-|-|
|Determined inputsandassumptions toprovidea valuation conclusion|/|

 Undertaken avaluation cross-checkusing alternative method(s) /
使用替代方法进行估值交叉核对
|||
|-|-|
|Confirmed the companyhasproper title tothe subjectbusinessandassets|/|

Verified dataand ratiosobtained frominformation providers /
验证信息提供者提供的数据和比率
|||
|-|-|
|Discussed aninitial draft reportto confirm factualaccuracy|/|
|对一份初步报告草案进行讨论，以确认事实的准确性||

4957 Ethtec Valuation (draft) 21022017 Page 11 of
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
We haverelied uponand/or considered thefollowinginformation providedbyEthtec:我方是基于或考虑了Ethtec提供的下述信息：
◆ Ethtec business case andapplicationto ARENA for funding
Ethtec用于阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资的商业案例和应用
◆ Feasibilitymodellingofethanol-onlyand ethanol/ xylitolrefineries adoptingthe EthtecProcess
纯乙醇和乙醇/木糖醇提炼厂（使用了Ethtec工艺）的可行性模型
◆ Netpresent value analysisof Ethtecbased onforecasts of future ethanolproduction usingthe EthtecProcessEthtec的净现值分析，基于使用了Ethtec工艺的未来乙醇生产预测
◆ Ethtec historicalaudited financial statementsforthefinancial yearsended30 June2014,2015and2016
Ethtec2014年，2015年，2016年（截止每年6月30日）的三年审计财务报告
◆ Ethtec information memorandum
Ethtec信息备忘录
2.3 Definitionofvalue价值定义
Marketvalueisdefinedas:市值定义如下：
"theprice, expressed intermsofcashequivalents,at which propertywould changehandsbetween ahypothetical willing andablebuyer and ahypotheticalwilling andable seller, actingat armslength inanopenandunrestricted market,
whenneither isundercompulsiontobuyor sell andwhenbothhavereasonable knowledgeof the relevantfacts."
“用现金等价物表示的价格，若存在购买意向和有能力的买家，以及酷游售卖意向的买家，当双方都不是强制购买或售卖且都对相关事实有合理了解之时，那么资产会在一个开放而不受限制的市场上在上述两者间以这样的价格易手。”
Source:InternationalGlossaryof Business ValuationTerms
料来源:国际商业估价术语表
Special valueisdefinedas theamount a specific purchaser iswillingtopayinexcessof marketvalue. Such specific purchasers maybewillingto payapremiumoverfair market valueas aresult of potential economiesof scale, reduction in competitionor othersynergiestheymayenjoyarisingfromthe acquisitionof the asset. Special valuehasnot been considered inthisanalysis.特殊价值被定义为特定购买者愿意支付超过市场价值的金额。由于潜在的规模经济、竞争减少或由于资产兼并而产生的其他协同效应，这些特定的购买者可能愿意支付高于公平市价的溢价。在此分析中没有考虑到特别价值。
2.4 Leveland premiseofvalue价值的水平和前提
There areanumber of levels at whichabusinessvalue canbedetermined, dependingon thelevelof controlandthe level of marketability. The different levelsof value arediscussedindetail in Appendix3. Aswe areassessing thevalueof100%of the sharesof Ethtec, thelevel of valueadopted isa control value. To theextent a minorityparcelofsharesis acquired,it maybe appropriateto applyadiscount tothepro-rata valuetoreflectthereducedlevel of controland / or liquidityapplicabletoa
minoritypositionin aprivate company.
业务价值的确定有很多水平，这取决于管理水平和市场化的程度。附录3详细讨论了不同水平的价值。当我们在评估Ethtec的全部股份价值时，所采用的价值水平是一个对对照值。在少数股份被收购的情况下，可适当地对按比例价值进行打折，以反映在私人公司中控制和/或流动性降低的少数股权。
The premiseof value referstoanassessmentof whether thevaluation of abusiness should bepremisedonthe assumption of agoing concernasopposedto aliquidationor break upassumption. In this casewehave determinedthata going concernbasis isthe mostappropriatefor Ethtec andthereforeadopted thegoing concern premiseof value.
价值前提指的是一个评估，评估企业的估值是否应以持续经营的假设为前提，而非相反的清算或破产假设为前提。在这种情况下，我们已确定持续经营的前提对Ethtec最为合适，因此采用了持续经营的价值前提。
4957 Ethtec Valuation (draft) 21022017 Page 12 of
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
3. Background to theBusiness业务背景
3.1Overview概况
Ethtec isanunlisted Australianpublic companyheadquarteredat Inghamin NorthQueensland. There are309
shareholders comprised mostlyof sugarcanefarmersandlandowners.
Ethtec是一家未上市的澳大利亚股份公司，总部位于昆士兰州北部的英格汉姆，有309名主要由甘蔗农和土地
所有者组成的股东。
Ethtec wasestablishedin2004 tofurther develop and commercialisenewtechnologydeveloped by ApaceResearch Limited ("Apace") for the productionof sugars,ligninandethanolfrom lignocellulosic materialsas wellasnewtechnology developed by Apacefor the productionof ethanol-dieselfuelblends andtheir usein dieselengines(the"ApaceDiesohol Technology").Ethtec创立于年，致力于进一步开发并商业化由Apace研究有限公司(“Apace”)开发的、用于从木质纤维素材料中生产糖、木质素和乙醇的新技术，以及该公司研发的、用于生产乙醇柴油混合燃料及将其用用户柴油发动机的新技术（Apace柴油乙醇混合燃料技术）。
3.2 Ethtec process andproductsEthtec工艺和产品
Ethanol乙醇
Ethanol isan establishedrenewabletransportfuelthat is usedin theformofethanol-petrolblends containingupto10% ethanol in conventionalpetrol engines, upto27% ethanolin adaptedpetrolengines andupto85%ethanolinflexible-fuel engines. Neat ethanolis usedasfuelin ethanolenginesandin some modernflexible-fuelengines.
乙醇是一种成熟的可再生运输用燃料，而运输用燃料通常是乙醇柴油混合液；对于传统汽油发动机，该混合液中的乙醇含量不超过10%，对于改装汽油发动机，燃料中的乙醇含量不超过27%，在两用燃料引擎中，乙醇含量不超过85%。
在乙醇发动机和一些现代的两用燃料发动机中，使用纯乙醇作为燃料。
Ethanol producedfromfood cropproducts suchas sugar cane juice,corn starchandwheatstarchisreferred toasfirstgeneration ethanol. However,thesefeedstocks are also usedfortheproduction of foodproducts andthe competitionitcreates with thefood market acts asa constraint on ethanolproduction fromthese feedstocks.
产自于甘蔗汁，玉米淀粉和小麦淀粉等粮食作物产品的乙醇，被称为一代乙醇。然而，这些原料也用于食品生产，因此这种乙醇生产方法与食品市场存在竞争，这样的竞争反过来限制了一代乙醇的生产。
Ethanol producedfromlignocellulosic or fibrous materials suchasagricultural crop residues, forestwastes and municipal green wasteisreferred toas second generationor cellulosicethanol.
产自于农业作物残渣、森林废物和城市绿色废物等木质纤维素的乙醇，被称为二代乙醇。
The majorityof cellulosicethanol productionprocessesrevolvearound developing methodsof steam and/ or acidpre- treatmentof the lignocellulosicfeedstock followedbytheuse of enzymes torelease the structural sugarsinto solution (known asenzymatic hydrolysis), therebymaking thembioavailablefora micro-organism toferment to ethanol. Major limitations ofthisapproach are:
大部分木制纤维素生产的乙醇身生产过程，围绕木质纤维素原料的蒸汽和/或酸预处理方法，然后使用酶将结构糖释放到溶液中（称为酶水解），从而使它们有生物可用性，以便微生物发酵，产生乙醇。这种方法的主要制约是:
◆ The required steamand / or acid pre-treatment processis expensiveintermsofboth capitaland operational costs从资金和运营成本方面考虑，所需的蒸汽和/或酸性预处理过程都很昂贵
◆ Enzymes arefeedstockspecific and cannot be usedon multipleormixedfeedstocks
酶只对原料有效，不能用于多种或混合饲料
◆ Enzymes are slowacting,requiringdaysto completereleaseof the structural sugars, resulting inlarge sizedholding vessels,alarge plant footprintandhigh capital cost
酶反应较慢，需要好几天才能完全释放结构糖，这会导致需要大型船舶，大型工厂（占地面积大）以及高成本。
◆ Incomplete pre-treatment and / or lowenzymeefficiencyresults inlowyields of sugars, which inturnresults inlow ethanol yields
不完全的预处理和/或低下的酶分解效率会导致底下的糖产量，从而影响乙醇产量
◆ Enzymes areexpensiveandare consumed ineachbatch, resultingin highoperational costs
酶价格昂贵，并且每一批都被消耗掉，这导致经营成本较高。
The EthtecProcessaims toovercomethe above-mentionedlimitationsbyusing concentrated sulphuric acidtorelease the
feedstock structural sugars(known asacidhydrolysis) in highyieldsina rapid continuousprocess. A continuous
chromatographysystemthen separates the sugarsfrom theacid, allowing theacidto berecycledand the sugarstobe
fermentedto ethanol.
Ethtec工艺旨在通过使用浓硫酸在快速连续的过程中释放高产量的原料结构糖(即酸水解)，从而克服上述限制。然后使用一种连续的色谱系统，将糖和酸分离，使酸被回收，糖被发酵成乙醇。
The useofacidhydrolysisallows for awide varietyof feedstock tobeutilised asinputs, including mixedfeedstockinputs,as theprocessdoes not dependon feedstock-specificenzymes. The EthtecProcessalso negatestheneed for pre-
treatmentofthe feedstock.
酸水解法允许多种原料作为投入使用，包括混合原料投入，因为这个过程不依赖于特定于原料的酶。Ethtec的过程也否定了对原料预处理的需要。
Based ondiscussionwith Ethtec, weunderstandthere arenoexisting commercial scaleplantsusinga similar process.在与Ethtec讨论后，我们了解到目前位置还未有任何商业规模的工厂使用类似工艺。
Currently, Australiahasan ethanol mandatein placeinNewSouth Walesandin Queensland. Ethtecbelievesthis mandate islikelyto beextendednationwide infuturedue totheincreasing globalfocuson ethanolasa clean, alternative fuel
(cellulosicethanolinparticular) and asethanolproductionprocessesbecome moreeconomical. This canbe observed fromthe implementationofsimilar policiesin countries such astheUnited States, Brazil andthroughoutEurope.TheUnited
StatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhasrecentlyapprovedE15(15% ethanol,85%unleaded petrol)for use
invehiclesbuiltafter 2001. In Brazil, flex-fuelvehicles (vehiclesthat can runonfuel blendswithvarying proportions of
ethanoland petrol) are common andE27is the minimum mandated ethanol-petrolblend.
目前，澳大利亚在新南威尔士州和昆士兰都有现行的乙醇强制执行授权。Ethtec认为：由于乙醇作为一种清洁的替代燃料(特别是木质纤维素乙醇)受到越来越多的全球关注，并且乙醇生产过程变得更加经济，因此这项授权在未来很可能在全国范围内推广。这点可从美国、巴西和整个欧洲等国家对类似政策的执行中看出。美国环境保护署最近批准了燃料E15(15%乙醇，85%无铅汽油)，用于2001年后建造的车辆中。在巴西，混合燃料汽车(可使用不同乙醇-汽油比例的混合燃料的汽车)很常见，E27是强制要求最低的乙醇-汽油混合燃料。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
Xylitol木糖醇
Xylitol isan alternativenatural sweetener found in small quantitiesin most fruits andvegetables.It has
theequivalentsweetness of sucrosewithapproximatelyonethird of the kilojoulesand canbe consumedbydiabetics as it is metabolised viaan insulin-independent pathway
木糖醇是一种可替代的天然甜味剂，在大多数水果和蔬菜中发现含有少量木糖醇。木糖醇的甜度相当于大约三分之一千焦的蔗糖，而且由于木糖醇是只通过胰岛素来代谢的，因此可被糖尿病人消耗掉。
The global market forxylitolwasestimated at 191,000tonnes in2016and isexpectedto increaseto 267,000 tonnesby 2022 drivenbyincreasinglyhealthand weight conscious consumers. Thelarge majorityof xylitolisproducedinChina and
isusedinvarious sectors suchas sugar-free chewinggum, toothpaste,pharmaceuticalsandpremiumnon-sugar
confectionaryproducts.
2016年，木糖醇的全球市场产量为19.1万吨，并且随着越来越多的消费者对于健康和体重关注，预计到2022年产量将增加到267000吨。绝大多数木糖醇产自中国，用于无糖口香糖、牙膏、药物及高档不含糖糖果等产品。
Xylitol is currentlyproducedexclusivelyfromeither corn cobs or thebarkfrom birchwoodtrees, both of whicharerichin xylose. After extracting thexylose,it ishydrogenated toform xylitolusing anexpensivenickel catalyst, resulting inahigh-
costproduction process.
木糖醇目前仅由玉米芯或桦木树树皮生产，因为它们都富含木糖。在提取木糖后，用一种昂贵的镍催化剂加氢形成木糖醇，这导致了高成本的生产工艺。
Amoreeconomicalwayknowntoproduce xylitolfromxylose isthroughfermentation. However, the majorbarrier tothis
approach hashistoricallybeen a sustainable supplyof axylose-rich sugarstream. Basedon Ethtec'sdata, the sugar stream producedfrom sugar cane bagasseisrichinxylitol whichhasthepotential toprovidethenecessaryhigh-volume
sugarstreamforcommercial-scaleproduction of xylitol.Furthermore, preliminarywork by Ethtec has shown that the
yeast,Candidatropicalis,can ferment theglucose and mannose componentsof theEthtec hydrolysateto ethanoland fermentthexylose component toxylitol.Thisprovidesa meansof co-production of ethanol andxylitol, and apossible
earlypathwayto commercialisationfor Ethtec.
发酵是从木糖中生产木糖醇的一种更经济的方法。然而，这种方法的一直以来都存在主要障碍，业绩素食受限于富含木糖的糖浆的可持续供应。Ethtec的数据表明，甘蔗蔗渣生产的糖浆富含木糖醇，可能为木糖醇的商业化规模生产提供必须的大量的糖流。此外，Ethtec的研究还表明：酵母和念珠菌可以将Ethtec水解液中的葡萄糖和甘醇成份酵化成乙醇，并将木糖成分酵化成木糖醇。这为乙醇和木糖醇的联合生产提供了一种手段，并为Ethtec的商业化提供了一个可能的早期途径。
Diesohol柴油乙醇混合燃料
Apace isalsointhe processof developinga newtechnologyfor the productionof ethanol-dieselfuel blendsandtheir use in dieselengines (“Diesohol”) which could alsorepresenta significant commercialisation opportunityfor Ethtec.
Ifsuccessful,thistechnologywouldallowethanoltobeblended withdieselfuelupto15%byvolume andbeused
interchangeablywithdieselfuelin existingdieselengines. Diesoholcontainingupto30% byvolume of ethanol couldbe used with minorengine modifications. Once commercialised, thistechnologywouldallowthese industriestodisplace
significantvolumesofdieselfuel usedin their operations. Somelimited trials/testinghave beenundertaken todatewith large industrialusers. Whilstthework undertakentodate ispromising,significant additional research, testingand
developmentwillberequired beforethe commercial merits canbeverified.
Apace还在开发一种用于生产乙醇柴油混合燃料(“乙醇柴油混合燃料”)及其在柴油发动机中使用的新技术，该技术也可为Ethtec的商业化带来重大机遇。若研发成功，乙醇与柴油按体积混合最高可达15%，而且在现有柴油发动机中可与柴油互换使用。乙醇含有高达30%的乙醇柴油混合燃料，可用于小型改良发动机。该技术一旦商业化，这些行业就会将其在运营中使用的大量柴油燃料替换成乙醇柴油混合燃料。目前针对大型工业用户已进行了一些有限的试验/测试。虽然迄今为止，所进行的工作都是前途光明的，但在验证商业价值之前，还需要进行大量的额外研究、测试和开发。
3.3DevelopmentStatus开发现状
The development oftheEthtecProcess isdividedinto four distinct phases witheach phase containingatleast one
componentof keynewtechnology. The first twophases involveddeveloping processestoliberate sugarsfromfeedstocks through acidhydrolysis,separatingtheacid fromthe sugarandrecyclingthe acidbyre-concentrating it andreturning it to the front end of theprocess.Thesephaseshave been completed successfullyandrepresent areas of development with higher technical risks relative to the following two phases due to dependence on the development of novel / new processes.Ethtec工艺开发分为四个不同阶段，每个阶段包含至少一个关键新技术的一个组成部分。前两个阶段包括：通过酸解将糖从原料中分离，将酸与糖分离，再将酸重新浓缩并再次适用到上工序末的开发工艺。这几个阶段已经成功实施，也揭示了与后
续阶段有关的、具有高技术风险的开发之处，因为后面的阶段依赖于新的/新工艺的发展。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
The researchinphases 3and4 relatetothe fermentingof sugars (releasedfromfeedstocksin theearlier parts of the
process)intoethanoland combining theethanolrecoveryprocesses withwasterecovery. Based ondiscussionwithDr Russell Reeves, technicalrisksinthesephasesare deemedtobelower as successinthese phasesisgenerallybased on the
efficiencyoftheprocess relative toexisting sugar-to-ethanolfermentation and ethanolrecovery/ waste
treatmentprocesses.Inaddition,fermentationofsugarsto alcoholisa well-understoodand commerciallytested process supported bya significantbodyofresearch. Should Ethtec'sresearchin thesephases produceless than satisfactoryresults, Ethtec would stillbe abletoutilise existingtechnologies / processesto achieve similar results,albeit with higher costs.阶段3和阶段4涉及糖（从前工序的原料中释放出来）转化成乙醇的酵化，并结合了乙醇的回收工艺。根据与RussellReeves博士的探讨，认为这两个阶段的技术风险较低，因为这两个阶段的成功往往是基于现有糖-乙醇酵化工艺以及乙醇回收/废物处理工艺的效率。此外，糖-乙醇酵化是一个易于理解并进行商业测试的工艺，该工艺由一个重要的研究机构作为支撑。若Ethtec在这两个阶段的研究成果不尽如人意，Ethtec仍然可以利用现有的技术/工艺实现类似结果，但这样做成本会更高。
In addition, theprocessesdeveloped inPhases1and 2arealsovaluable to sectorsother than ethanolasthehigh- volume sugar streamthatcanbeproduced usingtheseprocesseshas thepotentialto beutilisedin manyother industries such asbioplastics(a formof plasticwhich isderivedfrombiological substancesinsteadof petroleum andis biodegradable).
此外,阶段1和2中的开发工艺，也对非乙醇的步骤具有重要价值，因为使用这些工艺生产的高容量糖流也很有可能在许多其他行业中使用，如生物塑料（一种来自生物物质、具有生物降解性的塑料，用来代替石油)。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
3.4 Businessmodel商业模式
The Ethtec commercialisation strategy, both withinAustralia andinternationally,isnotyet agreed but mayincludeeither a licensing modeloractivelypursuingthe formationofconsortiathat comprise resourceowners,capitalinvestors, process equipment/technologysuppliers and product offtake organisations.
Ethtec在澳大利以及国际商的商业化进程目前还未议定，但可能包含一种许可模式，或积极寻求包括资源所有者、资本投资者、过程设备/技术供应商和产品分支机构在内的合作。
Ethtec's roleinthese ventureswillbe toprovidethe EthtecProcessincluding thetechnicalexpertise andongoing research and development to ensurethe technologycontinuesto beattheforefrontofitsfield.It is anticipatedthatprofits from these consortia willbeextracted by Ethtecthrough either alicensing approachor throughjointequityownership (enabling equitydistributions toEthtec)in theentities.
Ethtec在这些项目中的作用将是提供Ethtec工艺，包括专业知识和正在进行的研发，以确保这些技术一直保持行业领先水平。预期Ethtec将会通过颁发许可，或在这些实体中进行联合股权分配的方式来分配因上述合作方加入而获取的利润(使实体能给Ethtec股权分配)。
The commercialisationoftheEthtec Processwould generatepotentiallysignificantbenefitsforresourceowners bywayofvalue- adding biomassresources usedinthe process.As such, Ethtecexpects significant support and uptakeof the
EthtecProcessbycompanies/ individuals involvedin theforest, sugarcaneandotheragriculturalindustries,bothwithin Australia and internationally.
Ethtec工艺的商业化将会给资源所有者带来潜在的重大利益，因为商业化过程中所使用的生物质资源是增值的。因此，在澳大利亚国内以及国际上，Ethtec希望能得到与森林、甘蔗和其它农业产业相关的公司/个人的、对于Ethtec工艺的支持和理解，并参与到这些行业中去。
In addition, the EthtecProcess involvesnewand /ornovelapplicationsforparticular types of
processequipment.Accordingly,suppliersofthisequipmentarealso stakeholdersthatwillpotentiallyderive
significantbenefitsfrom commercialisation of the EthtecProcess bywayofanew,large-scale, applicationfortheir products and services.
此外，Ethtec工艺还会使用到新的/新颖的特殊工艺设备。因此，此类设备的供应商也是利益相关者，因为他们可通过部署新的、大规模的、产品和服务从Ethtec工艺商业化中获得明显收益。
Organisations involvedinthe downstreamvalue-adding, trading,wholesaleand/or retail supplyof (lignocellulosic)
sugars,ethanoland / or otherproductsproducedfrom (lignocellulosic) sugarsare also stakeholdersthatwillpotentially derive significantbenefits from commercialisation oftheEthtec Process.
参与下游增值、交易、批发和/或糖、乙醇和/或其它糖类产品(木质纤维素)零售供应(木质纤维素)的组织，也可能从Ethtec工艺的商业化过程中获得巨大的利益。
3.5 Apacerelationship与Apace的关系
Apace wasincorporatedin NewSouthWales in1979 asa non-profit company, limited byguarantee, toundertake research anddevelopment ofrenewableenergytechnologies. There areno shareholdersin Apace. Currently, thereare five membersof Apacewhoalso serveas directorsof Apace. TheyincludeDr RussellReeves andMr AndrewReeves who arealso
keypersonnelof Ethtec.TheMemorandumand Articlesof Associationof Apacerestrict Apace from making anydistributions toits members.
Apace于1979年在新南威尔士州成立，作为一家以担保为限的非营利性有限公司，负责研发可再生能源技术。Apace没有任何股东，并且Apace有5名成员，其中包括Ethtec的关键人物：拉塞尔·里夫斯博士和安德鲁·里维斯先生，这5名成员同时也担任Apace的董事。Apace的备忘录和章程限制了Apace对其成员的任何分配。
Apace either owns or hasexclusive intellectualpropertyrights tothetechnologyusedbyEthtec. Ethtechas aworld-wide exclusive licencefromApace tofurther develop and commercialisethe Apacetechnology(including theEthtecProcess).As part of this licensingarrangement, Ethtecisrequiredtopaya5%royaltyon salesto Apace onceEthtecbreachesa cumulative salesthreshold of 1.5 timesthe investedequitycapitalin Ethtec. In addition, once cumulative sales surpasses
7.5 timesthe equitycapital of Ethtec,theroyaltyrateis increasedto10%on salesabove that threshold.
Apace要么拥有Ethtec所使用的技术，要么具有该技术的独享知识产权。Ethtec获取了Apace的一个世界范围的独家授权，进一步开发Apace技术(包括Ethtec工艺)进行商业化。作为这一许可协议的一部分，一旦Ethtec的累计销售门槛超过1.5倍，Ethtec需要支付5%的版税。此外，一旦累计销售额超过了7.5倍的Ethtec股权资本，对于高于该阈值的销售额，版税税率提高到10%。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec资产评估
3.6 Capitalstructure and funding资本结构及融资
To date, Ethtec shareholdershave contributedatotalof$15.6 million tothe project($5 millionunderanOffer InformationStatementin2007,$6 millionunderaRightsIssueProspectusin2010,and$4.6 million under anInformation Memorandum in2012). Theseall occurredat anominal priceof[$1pershare].
到目前为止，Ethtec的股东已经为该项目出资了1，560万美元(在2007年的一份《发行信息披露》的声明中，有500万美元；2010年的《招股说明书》中600万美元的权利发行计划书；2012年的《资料备忘录》中有460万美元)。这些股票都是以名义价格计算(每股1美元)上。
In addition, Ethtec haspreviouslyreceivedtwo governmentgrants;$57,000awarded bythe NSWDepartment of State andRegionalDevelopment’sBusinessInvestment Programmein2008and$2.935 millionawardedbyAusIndustryunder theFederalGovernment’sClimate Ready Programmein2010.
此外，Ethtec曾获得过两笔政府资助，分别是由新南威尔士州国家和区域发展部于2008年颁发的57,000美元的商业投资项目，以及在2010年联邦政府气候准备方案下由AusIndustry拨划的2.935亿美元。
In order to continuewith thedevelopmentand commercialisation of the EthtecProcess, Ethtecis currentlypursuing
additional fundingwith anapplication to ARENAaswell as contemplating further capital raisingsfrompotentialinvestors.为了继续开发Ethtec工艺并进行商业化，Ethtec目前向阿瑞娜（ARENA）提出申请，寻求更多的资金，并考虑进一步向潜在的投资者筹集资本。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
4. Valuation Methodology资产评估方法
4.1 Available methodologies可用方法
There areanumber of approachesthat can beusedtovalueabusiness. Theseapproachesarediscussedindetailin Appendix4. The selectionof anappropriate methoddependson anumber of factors suchasthe natureof thebusiness being valued, thereturn ontheassets employedinthe business, thevaluation methodologiesusuallyapplied inthe sectorand
theavailabilityof the requiredinformation.
评估业务的方法多种多样，将在附录4中详细讨论。选择适当的方法取决于多个因素，例如被评估业务的性质、业务使用资产的回报率、该领域中的常规估评估方法，以及所需信息的可用性等。
4.2 Selectedmethodologies选择的方法
In selectingthe most appropriate methodologyto valueEthtec wehave considered:
在选择最合适的方法评估Ethtec时，我们考虑了以下几点：
◆ Ethtec isneither anassetbasedbusinessnor an investment holding company. It isalso considered tobeagoing concern,thusanassetapproachisnotlikelytobe the most appropriate
Ethtec既不是基于资产的商业，也不是一家投资控股公司。它也被认为是一个盈利企业，因此资产评估方法也不太可能是最合适的。
◆ Ethtec ispre-revenueandthereforeuse of the capitalisation of earningsapproach isnot possible
Ethtec是先期获益的，因此使用资本收益方法也是不可能的。
◆ We havebeenprovidedwith modelsinvolving projectionsof future salesvolumesand forecast revenuesand expenditure requiredto commercialise theEthtecProcess. These projections, whichwereprepared by Ethtec managementandtheir advisers, mayformareasonablebasisforaDCF analysis
我们已经获得了与未来销量预测有关的模型，并对 Ethtec工艺商业化所需的收入和产出进行了预估。上述销量预测是由Ethtec管理层及其顾问编写的，可以为DCF分析提供一个合理的基础。
◆ We arenotawareofanyindustryspecific valuation methodologies appropriatetoEthtec givenits
stageofdevelopment
我们并不知道对于Ethtec的开发阶段，存在那些特定的行业评估方法。
Accordingly,weare of theopinion that the most appropriate methodologytovalue Ethtecisthe DCF method witha
probabilityweightedassessmentof multiple likelyscenarios.
因此，我们认为最适合价值的方法是DCF方法，它可以对各种可能的方案进行概率加权评估。
4.3 Valuationprocess评估过程
As the commercialisation modelis currentlyuncertain, inapplying theDCF method,wehave:
由于商业化的模式目前还不确定，所以在使用DCF方法时，我们:
◆ Determined theeconomics of operatingan ethanolplant utilising theEthtecProcess basedonassumptions usedinthe ARENAfundingapplicationupside case(page13)基于阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请中的上升情况中的设想，确定经营一个采用Ethtec工艺生产乙醇的工厂的经济效益(第13页)
◆ Considered thepotential returnsto Ethtecin theformofanappropriate royaltyrate(page17)考虑到Ethtec可能因合适的版税率收到的回报（第13页）
◆ Assessed anappropriatediscount rate(page22)评估了适当的贴现率（第22页）
◆ Calculated theenterprisevalue for thebase case(page24)计算了基本情况下的企业价值（第22页）
◆ Considered potentialalternative scenarios, their respective probabilitiesandthe overallbusinessvalue (pages26to29)考虑了各种潜在替代方案，及其各自的概率和整体业务价值(第26至29页)
◆ Assessed thevalueof an Ethtecshare(page31)评估了Ethtec的每股价值(第31页)
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
5. EthanolPlantAssumptions
乙醇工厂的设想
5.1 Introduction
In order to developa set of cash flowprojections for Ethtec, we havefirstassessedtheforecasteconomicsofanethanol plantemployingthe EthtecProcess todeterminea reasonablereturn (inthe formof a royaltyorother profit distribution
arrangement)toestimate Ethtec'srevenue stream. From discussionswith management, ourlimitedindustryanalysisand reviewof existingplantmodelling/ projections providedbymanagement, we havedeveloped cash flowprojections based ontheassumptions set out below. Theseassumptionsare premisedontheassumptions utilisedinthe ARENA funding applicationandotherinformationprovidedbymanagement. We haveprimarilyrelied ontheinformation provided,including estimatesofethanolyield fromfeedstocks,andoperational and capital expenditurerequirements.We
haveonlyundertakenlimited analysisof keyindustry variables suchasethanol pricingandthefuelexcise.
为了开发一套针对Ethtec的现金流预测，我们首先评估了一个应用Ethtec工艺的乙醇工厂的预期经济，来确定合理的回报(以特许权使用费或其他利润分配的形式)来估计Ethtec的收入来源。基于与管理层的讨论、我们有限的行业分析以及对管理层提供的现有工厂建模/预测的回顾，我们根据下面的设想制定了现金流预测。这些设想的前提是：在阿瑞娜（ARENA）资金申请以及管理层提供的其他信息中采用的设想。我们主要依赖于所提供的信息，包括对饲料产乙醇的产量的估计，以及运营和资本支出的要求。我们仅对主要工业变量进行了有限分析，例如乙醇的定价和燃料税。
Referto Appendix5fordetailedforecasts basedon theseassumptions.
欲知这些设想进行详细的预测，请参见附录5。
5.2 Plantcapacityusage and productionvolume工厂产能利用率和产量
Capacityusageof an ethanolproduction plant from commencementof operationsis assumedtoincrease asfollows
based on current Ethtec modelling:
根据目前的Ethtec模型，估计乙醇生产工厂在商业化操作下的产能利用率将会有如下增加：
◆ Year1:50%oftotalplant capacity
第一年：工厂生产总能力的50%。
◆ Year2onwards:100%oftotalplant capacity
第二年及以后：工厂生产总能力的100%
This ramp-upprofile assumes sufficient ongoing demandfor ethanol after Year 2 to continueproducing at100% capacity which isnotunreasonablegiventhe growingdemand for alternativefuels (topetrol),theprovenviabilityof ethanolfor use inpetrolblends andtheblending of ethanolbeing increasinglygovernment-mandated, both in Australiaandglobally.
这个上升的利润是基于以下假设：假设在第2年之后存在足够的、不间断的乙醇需求，以使工厂继续全产能生产（但这是不合理的，因未要考虑替代燃料的需求不断增长）；并且乙醇在汽油中使用的可行性已证实，同时在澳大利亚和全球范围内乙醇混合技术受到越来越多的政府授权。
Forthepurposeof our analysis,wehaveassumedanethanol plant capacityof 60 million litres("ML") per annumwhich is theaverage ethanolnameplateplantcapacitysupportablebased ontheoutputof sugar cane bagassein
Australia.Sugarcanebagasseis likelytobe oneof the main feedstocksfor Ethtec Processethanolplants in Australiagiventhe availabilityof the resource, thehigh potentialyield andthe potentialfor value addto resourceowners.
就我们的分析而言，根据澳大利亚甘蔗蔗渣的产量计算而得的贴牌乙醇工厂的产能的均值，我们假设乙醇工厂的年产能为6000万升(“ML”)。考虑到资源的可用性，潜在的高产量以及对资源所有者潜在的增值，甘蔗渣很可能是Ethtec工艺在澳大利亚乙醇工厂的主要原料之一。
5.3 Ethanolprice乙醇的价格
We haveadoptedthe import parityprice ("IPP") of ethanolof115 centsperlitreasa proxyfor thewholesale
priceofethanol.ThisIPPhasbeendetermined bytheIndependent PricingandRegulatory Tribunal("IPART") in relationto wholesale ethanolpricingforpetrol-ethanolblendsinAustralia.[Wehavealso consideredpricesfor ethanol basedon terminal gateprices("TGP") forpetrolwhichwould imply higher prices than implied by theabove]
我们采用了乙醇的进口平价(IPP)115美分/升，作为乙醇的批发价。该IPP是由澳大利亚的与汽油乙醇混合定价有关的独立定价与监管仲裁庭（IPART）确定的。【我们还考虑了基于终端门槛价（TGP）的乙醇价格，因为基于终端门槛价（TGP）的价格要高于基于上述定价】。
We haveassumedanincrease inethanolpriceovertimebasedontheassumedinflationrateof2.0%per annum.
我们已根据假设的年通胀率2.0%，估计随着时间的推移乙醇价格会增加。
While wehaveadopted theabovepriceforour valuation, wealso notethat the selling pricewillbe closelyconnectedto the cost
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
offeedstock. This hasbeenevaluated byEthtec throughan analysisof profitabilitybasedon variationsinboth selling priceand feedstock cost. Asaresultof this analysis, Ethtec believethat an appropriatefeedstock cost wouldbeapproximately$50per drytonne(discussed inSection5.6below) whichrepresents avalueaddtoresourceowners given that the
majorityoffeedstockto theEthtec Processwould be considered waste material otherwise. As such,variations infeedstock costs willbe closelylinkedtoactual ethanol sellingprice andprofitabilityas awhole.
虽然我们已在我们的评估中使用了上述价格，但我们也注意到销售价格将与原料成本密切相关。Ethtec公司已对基于销售价格和原料成本的变化进行了盈利能力的分析，从而对其进行评估。上述分析的结果就是，Ethtec认为合适的原料成本约为50美元/干吨(将在下文5.6中讨论)；对这个价格对于资源所有者来说是一个附加值，因为大多数的原料都被认为是废物。因此，总地来说，原料成本的变化，会与实际的乙醇售价和盈利能力密切相关。
5.4Excise消费税
Until July2016, there hadbeenzero fuelexciseon ethanol. Under currentgovernment legislation, from July2016, a fuel excise istobeincrementallyapplied toethanolover afour yearperiodto July2020. This exciseisappliedbymultiplying the current fuel excisebythe ethanolexciserate. Theethanolexcise rate, expressedas apercentageofthefuel excise,is prescribedbythe ATO.
直到2016年7月，对乙醇还没有征收消费税。但根据目前的政府立法，将从2016年7月起对乙醇逐步征收 4年消费税，直至 2020年7。该消费税是通过将当前的燃油消费税乘以乙醇消费税来来征收的。在燃料消费税中，乙醇消费税是由ATO规定的。
The fuelexcisefortheperiodfromFebruary2017to July2017 is40.1 centsperlitrewiththeexcise beingindexedtothe
CPIbiannually(every1 Februaryand1 August).Wehaveadopted thisasourratefor that period (notingthat there isa
corresponding cost) andassumeda biannualincreaseinline withaninflationrate of2.0%per annum.
自2017年2月到6月的燃油消费税是40.1美分/升，并且该消费税与每年的CPI挂钩（每年的2月1日和8月1日）。我们把它当做那一时期的费率(注意到有相应的成本)，并假设每年的通货膨胀率为2.0%。
Given that the first Ethtec ethanolplantisnotexpectedto begin construction until2020,theethanol excisewill befully ramped-up bythe timethe first plantbeginsoperations.
考虑到首个Ethtec乙醇工厂预计到2020年才开始建设，因此到首个工厂开始运营时，会被征收完全的乙醇消费税。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
5.5Ethanolrevenue乙醇带来的收益
The aboveassumptionson productionvolume, ethanol priceandexcise result inthe followingrevenue profile(after deductingGSTpayable):上述对于乙醇产量，价格和消费税的假设，会产生以下收益(扣除消费税后)：
Revenue收益($'000)
100,000
90,000
5.6Costoffeedstock原料成本
As per the ARENAfundingapplication, feedstock costshavebeenassumed basedona cost per drytonne of$50.Ethtec haveassumedthatoneof the mainfeedstockswhich willbeused byfutureEthtec plantswillbe sugar cane bagasse.A priceof$50perdrytonnewouldrepresent a significant valueaddto sugarcaneresource ownersgiventhe majorityof bagasse is consideredto bewaste.
根据阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请，原料成本是基于50美元/干吨的成本。Ethtec假定将来Ethtec工厂使用的主要原料之一就是甘蔗渣。若大多数的甘蔗渣被认为是废物，那么50美元/干吨的价格对甘蔗资源所有者来说是一个重大的附加价值。
The maximumtheoreticalethanol yieldof sugarcanebagasseis 400Lper drytonneof feedstock. Ethtecbelievetheir process willbe capableofproducingethanolat70% of the maximumtheoreticalyield whichresultsin280L per drytonne offeedstock. This percentageyield ispremisedon boththe conversionefficiencyoffeedstockto sugar andthe fermentation efficiencyto ethanol currentlyachievedbyEthtecin their pilotplant. These assumptionsresultinannual feedstock
usageofapproximately214,286 drytonnes for a 60MLethanolplant.
理论上，甘蔗渣乙醇的最高产量为400L/每干吨原料。Ethtec认为理论上他们的工艺将能够产出的最大乙醇产量是上述产出的70%，也就是280L/每干吨原料。这一比例的产量是基于当前其工厂的原料转换率和乙醇发酵率的基础之上的。这些假设的结果是，对于一个60ML的乙醇工厂，其每年消耗的原料为214,286干吨。
Otherfeedstockswith potentiallysimilaryieldsto sugar canebagasse includewheatstubbleandradiatapine[sawdust].Ethtec also considers that boththese feedstocks couldreasonablybepurchasedata costof$50perdrytonne.
其它有甘蔗渣有类似产量的原料包括：麦茬和白松木[木屑]。Ethtec还认为这些原料都可以以50美元/干吨的价格合理购买。
5.7 Operatingexpenses经营支出
Perthe ARENA funding application, operatingexpenses areassumedon adollarsperlitrebasis. Ethtec havequantified this as34 centsper litre after takinginto considerationvarious studiesonthe economicsof enzymatic hydrolysisfor the production of cellulosic ethanolandthe expected efficiencyof theEthtec Processbycomparison. This costper litreis believed by Ethtec tobe a conservative estimateat this stage of the development project.
在阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请中，经营费用是以1美元/升计算的。在参考了各种关于纤维素乙醇生产的经济学研究，并比较了Ethtec工艺的预期效率之后，Ethtec已经将其具化为34美分/升。Ethtec认为在开发项目的这一阶段，每升乙醇的成本是保守估计。
We haveincludedan inflationaryincreasein operatingexpensesovertimebasedonthe assumedinflationrate of2.0%.
在假定的2.0%的通胀率基础上，我们已经包含了随时间推移而增长的通货膨胀。
5.8 Capitalexpenditure anddepreciation资本支出和折旧
The initialoutlayfor the construction of a 60MLEthtecProcess ethanolplanthasbeenestimated byEthtectobe$150 million.
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From discussionwithEthtec management, we understandthisto bean earlyand conservative estimateof the costbasedon conversationswithequipmentsuppliersandotherpotential suppliers/stakeholders. Each ethanolplant is expected tohave auseful lifeof 20 yearstranslating toanannual depreciationrate of5.0%.
据Ethtec估计，建立一个60ML的Ethtec工艺乙醇工厂的初始支出为1.5亿美元。在于Ethtec管理层沟通后，我们理解：基于与设备供应商及其他潜在供应商/利益相关者进行对话，这是一个早期的、保守的成本估计。每个乙醇工厂的使用寿命预期为20年，每年折旧率为5.0%。
We haveestimatedongoing capexbyassuminga maintainable levelof plant and equipment asapercentageofrevenue. Thisrepresents theexpectedlevelofplant andequipmentrequiredto sustaina givenlevelofrevenue. For the purpose of our analysis,wehaveassumed minimal capexintheinitial yearsof operationuntil theplant andequipmentdepreciates toa levelof75% of revenue. Basedonthese assumptions, depreciationwill remain stablefortheinitiallife oftheplant after which depreciationand capexwill be closelyaligned. This canbeobservedfrom the capexand depreciation profile below:
我们也已通过假设工厂和设备所处的一个可维持的水平是收入的百分比，从而估计了正在进行的资本支出。这显示为了维持给定的收益水平，工厂和设备的期望水平是什么。就我们的分析而言，在工厂和设备贬值为之前收益水平的75%之前，我们假定在经营的最初几年，工厂承担了最低限度的资本支出。基于这些假设，折旧将在工厂最初的运营中保持稳定，但在这之后，折旧和资本支出将会紧密地结合在一起。这可以从下面的资本支出和折旧关系看出:
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Capitalexpenditureanddepreciation($'000)
资本支出和折旧($'000)
80,000
70,000
Capital expenditure Depreciation资本支出折旧
5.9Debtfinancing举债筹资
Construction of the plant isexpected by Ethtectobe60%debtfundedon averagealthoughitislikelyto beinitiallylower.This resultsinyearlyrepaymentsofapproximately$8.5 million splitbetweenprincipaland interest repaymentsasfollows:预计Ethtec公司会承担60%的债务，虽然预期的债务融资要低得多。这会导致Ethtec每年支付如下约850万美元的本金和利息:
Financing($'000)融资
9,000
8,000
7,000
1raeY
2raeY
3raeY
4raeY
5raeY
6raeY
7raeY 8raeY
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71
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81
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91
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02
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22
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32
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42
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52
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Principal Interest本金利息
5.10Netprofitaftertax税后净利
Based onthe assumptionsabove,anEthtec ethanolplantwillgenerate thefollowing net profitafter taxbeforeany
potentialroyaltyto Ethtec:
基于上述假设，在Ethtec收到任何专利使用费之前，一个Ethtec乙醇工厂将产生以下税后净利润:
Netprofit净利润($'000)
25,000
20,000 1raeY
2raeY
3raeY
4raeY
5raeY
6raeY
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32
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52
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0
-5,000
-10,000
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7raeY
8raeY
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31
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51
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61
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71
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81
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Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
5.11 Free cashflows自由现金流量
Based onthe assumptionsabove, an ethanolplant will generatethefollowing net cashflows toequityholders beforeany potentialroyaltytoEthtec:基于上述假设，在Ethtec收到任何可能的专利费之前，一个乙醇工厂可能为持股者带来下述的净现金流量：
Freecashflows自由现金流量
($'000)
30,000
-30,000
-40,000
RefertoSection 6.4fortheanalysisofareasonable royaltyrate giventheabove cashflows andplant profitability.
参见下述6.4节，获知在假定上述现金流量和工厂盈利率的情况下，对合理的专利权使用费的分析。
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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
6. EthtecBaseCaseAssumptions Ethtec基本情况的假设
6.1Introduction介绍
Based ontheplantoperationassumptionsin Section5, wehave adoptedthefollowing assumptionsinorder to developa setof cash flowprojections for Ethtec.Whilst we havenotconducteddetailed analysisofeachoftheseassumptions,nothing has come to our attention which would lead us to conclude the assumptions, when taken as a whole, are notreasonable.
基于第5节中对工厂经营的假设，为了开发一套针对Ethtec的现金流预测，我们采用了下述的假设。虽然我们还未对这些假设进行详细分析，但当我们整体考量时，我们不会因某些能引导我们总结这些假设的原因，而认为这些假设是不合理的。
Referto Appendix7fordetailedforecasts basedontheseassumptions.预知基于这些假设的详细预估，请参见附件7. 6.2 Ethanolplants andvolume乙醇工厂和体积
Forthepurpose of thisanalysis,wehaveassumed thefirst Ethtec plant willbe a mixedethanol / xylitol co-production
plantandall subsequentplantswillbeethanol-onlyplants(no co-products). The mixedplant willhave anameplate ethanol production capacityof36MLper yearandaxylitol production capacityof18,857tonneswhereas eachethanol- onlyplant willhavean ethanolproduction capacityof60MLper year. The number of plantsassumed tobecome operational over the forecast periodhas beenbasedon theforecastsdetailed inthe ARENA fundingapplication withthe maximum number of plants being cappedat29. Thistotalnumberof plantsis basedonanticipatedethanol demandin Australia
assuminganationwide10% mandateforethanoluseinpetrol blendsandequates toapproximately1.75billion litres of ethanol. Ethtecexpects toreach thisnumberof plants by2032 withthefollowingramp-upprofile:就本分析而言，我们假定首个工厂将会是一个乙醇/木糖醇联合生产工厂，并且此后的所有工厂将只生产乙醇(无副产品)。混合工厂铭牌乙醇产能为36ML，木糖醇的产能为18,857吨。而每个只生产乙醇工厂的乙醇年产能为60ML。在预测期间，假定为可经营的工厂数量，是根据提交给阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请中详细预测而定的，但是工厂的最大数量不能超过29。工厂的数量取决于澳大利亚预期的乙醇需求，也就是假设在全澳范围内，在汽油中使用乙醇的比例为10%，就相当于大约有17.5亿升乙醇的需求。预计Ethtec将在2032年达到这一数量，同时具有如下增长概况:
Numberofplants工厂的数量
35
5
0
6.3 Ethanolandxylitolrevenue乙醇和木糖醇带来的收益
Forecastethanolrevenue attributableto Ethtecis afunctionoftheethanol pricingand exciseassumptions detailedin Section 5andthe plant andvolume assumptionsdescribedinSection 6.2above.
Ethtec应得收益的预测是乙醇定价和消费税假设的功能，这在第5节中详细给出；工厂和假设体积在上文6.2节中给出。
In addition, wehave assumedtheprice of xylitoltobe$2.50perkg. While currentxylitolpricesareapproximately$5.00 perkg, the costefficienciesofproducingxylitolusing theEthtecProcess arelikelyto beoneofthe maindrivers for the take-up of the processforxylitolproduction. Currently,thehigh priceofxylitolisa deterrent to its morewidespread usage asa sugar
alternative.
另外，我们假设木糖醇的价格是2.50美元/公斤。虽然目前木糖醇的价格大约是5美元/公斤，但是使用Ethtec工艺生产木糖醇的成本效率很可能是木糖醇生产过程的主要驱动因素之一。目前，木糖醇的高价格阻碍了它作为糖替代品的广泛使用。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Based on theseassumptions,thefollowing revenuesare expectedto beattributable toEthtec:
基于上述假设，Ethtec期望收到下述收益：
Attributablerevenue应计收益($'m)
3,000
2,500
0
6.4 RoyaltyrevenueforEthtecEthtec获得的专利使用费收益
Based onthe forecast plant profitabilityfor an ethanol-onlyplant, we haveassessed areasonableroyaltyratetobe between[6.0%]and[7.0%]ofsales. This combinedroyaltyraterepresentsapproximately[19%] to[22%] of the projected EBITfor an Ethtecethanol plantor[32%] to[37%] of cash flowsto equityfrom anethanol plant. We donotconsider this to bean
unreasonable share of theprofits / cash flowsfor Ethtecgiventhe importanceof Ethtec'sIPingeneratingthis
revenue.Wenotethisisalso broadlyinlinewiththe"25%rule".The"25%rule" isanindustryruleofthumbbasedon the concept thattheuser ofanintangibleassetwouldbewillingtopayapproximately25%of EBITtolicense anasset.We consider this representsan equitable sharing oftheeconomic profitsbetween Ethtec, resource owners, equipmentproviders and productoff-take participants.
基于对乙醇工厂盈利的预测，我们经评估，确定了合理的专利使用费的税率在6.0%和7.0%之间。这组专利使用费大约占到一个Ethtec乙醇工厂EBIT的19%，或是一个Ethtec乙醇工厂股权现金流量的32%到37%。我们不认为这个比例对于Ethtec的利润/现金流来说是不不合理的，因为考虑到Ethtec的IP在产生此类收入方面的重要性。我们注意到这种情况也大致符合25%规则。25%规则是一个基于经验的行业规则，而经验基于一个概念：即无形资产用户愿意支付大约25%的EBIT来获得某个资产。我们认为这展现了Ethtec、资源所有者、设备供应商和产品承购参与者之间对经济利润的公平分配。
A[6.0%] to[7.0%] royaltyrateon salesof both ethanoland xylitolwill alsoresult in a similarshareofprofitsfor Ethtec from a mixed ethanol/xylitolplant.
乙醇和木糖醇的专利使用费的费率为销售额的6.0%到7.0%，会导致Ethtec把混合乙醇/木糖醇的工厂的进行类似的利益分配。
[We havealsoassumeda$3 milliondollar upfrontlicensingfeefor everynewplant adoptingthe EthtecProcesswhichis in linewith theassumptions inthe ARENA fundingapplication.]
【对于采用了Ethtec工艺的每个新工厂，我们假设它们会收到300万美元的预付许可费，这与阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请中的假设一致。】
From discussionwith Ethtec management, Ethtec willlikelyenter intotechnical serviceagreements ("TSA") toprovide theirexpertiseduring the constructionphase of each plant (in conjunction withthe engineering, procurement and
construction contractors) as wellas ongoing consulting servicesaftercommencement ofplant operation.Thetermofeach TSA isexpected tobeapproximately10yearswithfees currentlyestimatedto be500,000per annum duringthe firstfiveyears of the arrangement and200,000 per annum for the followingfiveyears.
从与Ethtec管理层的讨论中可知，Ethtec将来可能会签订一份技术服务协议（TSA），以在每个工厂(与工程、采购及建筑承包商合作)的建设阶段提供专业知识，以及在工厂运作后继续提供咨询服务。每个TSA的期限预计是10年左右，目前估计前5年中每年的费用为50万美元，而在接下来的5年里每年的费用为20万美元。
These assumptionsproduce thefollowing revenue stream:
这些假设产生了以下收入流：
Royaltyrevenue专利使用费收益($'000)
180,000
160,000 7102 9102 1202 3202 5202 7202 9202 1302 3302 5302 7302 9302 1402
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
6.5 Grantincome andfunding补助性收入和融资
From the ARENA funding application, we understandthat Ethtechas budgetedforthefollowing contributionsto the
projectfrom severalinterestedparties:从阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请中，我们了解到：Ethtec为以下几个感兴趣的项目提供了以下的预算：
◆ ARENA:$11.85 million
阿瑞娜（ARENA）：1185万美元
◆ Universityof Newcastle ("UON"):$2.28 million
纽卡斯尔大学（UON）：228万美元
◆ NSWGovernment("NSWGov"):$6.30 million
新南威尔士州政府(“NSW政府”):630万美元
◆ Muswellbrook ShireCouncil("Muswellbrook"):$1.25 million
马瑟尔布鲁克郡议会(“Muswellbrook”):125万美元
Contributions fromthree of theabove parties(UON, NSWGovandMuswellbrook)[have beenconfirmed]withthe
ARENAcontributionbeing the subject ofanongoing application.Theform of thisfunding fromARENAis currently expected tobe mostly(if notexclusively) inthe formof equity.For thepurpose of our analysis,wehaveassumed that all ofthe ARENA funding willbereceivedas equityinvestmentswhile therest of the abovefundingwillbe receivedas (taxable)grant income over the next fiveyears.
来自上述3方(UON,NSWGovandMuswellbrook)的出资，[已被证实]与从阿瑞娜（ARENA）的出资，而这种出资是当前融资申请的目标。来阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资形式目前主要是股权形式（若非独占）。就我们的分析而言，我们假设所有的来自阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资都将作为股权投资的形式获得，而上述的其余融资都将未来五年内以(纳税)拨款收入的形式获得。
Wealsonotethatthereremains$8.32 millionworthoffundingtobe raisedbasedon budgetedexpenditureto completion of the development project in 2021. We have assumedthatthisfurther funding willbereceived inthe formofequityinvestments in Ethtec.
我们还注意：根据预算支出，要在2021年完成项目开发的话，目前仍有832万美元的资金需要筹集。我们假定这笔未来需要的资金Ethtec将以股权投资的形式收到。
6.6 RoyaltytoApaceApace收到的专利使用费
We understandthat Ethtecisrequired toachieve cumulative salesof1.5times itsinvestedequitycapitalbeforea5% royaltyon sales(overtheequitythreshold)becomespayableto Apace. Once cumulative salesof 7.5 timestheinvested
equitycapitalhave beenachieved, a royaltyof10% on salesbecomes effectivefor everydollar over thatthreshold. This results in thefollowing royaltypaymentprofile:我们了解到：在Apace收到基于5%的销售额(超过股本阀值)的专利使用费之前，要求Ethtec的累计销售额为其投资股本的1.5倍。一旦累计销售额达到其投资股本的7.5倍，对于超出的部分，要征收10%的特许权使用费。这就会产生下述专利使用费:
RoyaltytoApace($'000)Apace的专利使用费
18,000
16,000
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
6.7 Operatingexpenses经营支出
Baseoperatingexpensesof$2.5 million(before inflation) per annumare assumedfor the development periodfrom2017 to 2021asper the ARENA application. Operatingexpenses arethenassumedtoincreaseby20%overthebasefor
everynewplantadoptingthe EthtecProcess reflectingtheadditional costsincurred by Ethtec for sales and
marketing,negotiating and maintaining ongoingarrangements withlicenseesorconsortiumpartners andthe costsof further research anddevelopmenttorefineorimprovethe EthtecProcess.
根据阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请，从2017年到2021年，每年的基础运营费用为250万美元(在通货膨胀之前)。然后假设每个新工厂的经营费用增加20%，以反映Ethtec因销售和营销所产生的额外成本、与被许可方或财团协商并保持现有安排的费用，以及进一步研发的成本，以改进或精细化Ethtec工艺。
Operatingexpenses经营支出($'000)
30,000
25,000
6.8 Capitalexpenditure anddepreciation资本支出和折旧
Capital expenditureover thefive year developmentperiodto 2021hasbeenassumed basedonthebudgetedyearly
expenditures outlinedin the ARENA funding application. Asthe budgetedyearlyexpenditureisinclusive of both operating and capital costs, wehave deductedannualoperating costs(describedin Section6.7above)fromtotalyearly expenditure toarrive at an estimateoftheimplied annual capital expenditureforthat period.
根据阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请中概述的年度开支，我们假设了五年开发期间内的资本支出（到2021年）。由于预算年度支出包括经营成本和资本成本，我们已在总年度支出中扣除了年度经营成本(上文第6.7条所述)，以估算该期间的年度资本支出。
We havealsoassumed Ethtec's capitalassets are split between businessequipment and thepilot plant withusefullives of10yearsand 20yearsrespectively. Depreciationonthepilotplant isassumed tobeginafter 2021 oncedevelopmentofthe EthtecProcess iscomplete.我们还假设Ethtec的资本性资产分别用于由业务设备的10年投资和试验工厂的20年投资。
一旦Ethtec工艺的开发完成，预计从2021年之后试点工厂开始折旧。
We havethenestimated ongoing capitalexpenditurebyassuminga maintainablelevel of plant andequipmentasa
percentage of revenue. This representstheexpected levelof plantandequipment required to sustaina givenlevelofrevenue asongoingresearchanddevelopmentwillberequiredto maintain andenhancetheprocessovertime. For the purpose of our analysis,wehaveassumed minimal capexinthe initialyearsafterthedevelopment perioduntil theplantand equipment depreciatestoalevelof40%of revenue. Basedonthese assumptions, thefollowing capexand depreciation profiles areforecast:之后我们通过假设维持工厂和设备运营水平所需资金占收入的百分比，估算了持续的资本支出。这给出了维持给定水平的收益所需的工厂和设备水平，因为随着时间的推移，在一段时间内研发还会继续，工艺也还会加强。就我们的分析而言，我们假设了在研发阶段之后的最初几年间间，当工厂和设备的这就幅度达到了40%的时候的，最低资本支出。根据这些假设，预测存在以下资本支出和折旧情况:
Capitalexpenditureanddepreciation资本支出和折旧($'000)
14,000
12,000 7102
9102
1202
3202
5202
7202
9202
1302
3302
5302
7302
9302
1402
Capital expenditure Depreciation
资本支出折旧
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 20of59
7102
9102
1202
3202
5202
7202
9202
1302
3302
5302
7302
9302
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
6.9R&D tax incentive研发税收优惠
R&Dtaxincentiveshave beenassumedas apercentageof total operatingand capital expenditurebasedonamounts and proportions reportedin the auditedhistorical financial statements.
基于往年审计的财务报表中的数额和比例，我们假设研发税收优惠是总营运和资本支出的一定比例的百分比。
The currentR&Dtaxincentiveratesprescribed bythe ATOare:
目前，ATO提出的研发税收优惠税率为:
◆ A43.5%refundable taxoffset foreligibleentities withanaggregated turnoveroflessthan$20 millionper annum对于年总营业额低于2000万美元的实体，征收43.5%的可退还的税收补偿
◆ A38.5% non-refundabletaxoffset forallothereligibleentities
对所有其他符合条件的实体征收38.5%的不可退还税款
These ratesare applied against eligible expenditureto calculatethe taxoffset.
这些利率适用于符合条件的支出，以计算税收补偿。
Given theabove datapoints, we haveassumedanR&D taxincentive of40%oftotaloperatingand capitalexpenditure
foryearsinwhichrevenueislessthan$20 millionand35%of totaloperating and capitalexpenditureforyearsinwhich revenue ismorethan$20 million. Wehavealso assumedadecliningproportion of totalexpenditureiseligiblefor the incentive
toreflecttheincreasinglycommercialfocus of Ethtecovertime. The proportionofeligibleexpenditureis assumed
todecreaseby10% per annumafter 2021.
在给定上述数据的基础上，我们假定当收益不到2000万美元的几年间，研发税收优惠是总营运及资本支出的40%，而且收益超过了2000万美元的几年间，研发税收优惠是总营运及资本支出的35%。我们还假定：随着时间的推移，总支出的下降部分适用于反应了一些优惠，反映出Ethtec逐渐增长的商业重点。
6.10 Tax rate and taxlosses税率和税收损失
We haveassumed incometaxis payableat the Australian corporatetaxrateof30%.Wealsonote that Ethtechas
broughtforwardtaxlossesof$1,769,313 asof 30 June2016. The taxeffect oftheselossesis$504,254and hasbeen applied inour analysis.
我们假设：所得税是按澳大利亚公司税率的30%支付的。我们还注意到：截至2016年6月30日，Ethtec承担了
1,769,313美元的税收损失。这些税收损失的课税影响是504,254美元，并在我们的分析中也用到了。
6.11 Forecastperiod andterminalvalue预测周期和终端价值
We haveadopteda discreteforecast period of 26years witha continuing valueat the endof the forecast periodonthe basis of capitalising free cash flowsin perpetuity. Thediscrete forecast period takesinto account the cashflow projections provided tous by Ethtec,thelength ofthe development period,theexpected take-uprate for the Ethtec Process,theramp- up profileofthe companyand theexpected lifeofanethanolplant.
我们基于充分利用自由现金流的基础之上，采取了一个不连续的26年预测期，并且在预测期结束时的持续价值。离散预测期考虑到了由Ethtec提供给我们的现金流预测，开发周期的长度，Ethtec工艺的预期吸纳率，公司的发展状况，以及乙醇工厂的预期寿命。
6.12 Netcashflows净现金流量
Based onthe assumptionsabove, the followingfree cashflowsare forecast (presentedusingthelowerroyaltyrateof6.0%):基于以上假设，预测了下述自由现金流量(假设使用较低的专利使用费率6.0%)：
Freecashflows自由现金
流量($'000)
90,000
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
0
-10,000
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
7. DiscountRate贴现率
7.1Overview概述
The discount rate representstherisk-adjusted rateofreturnaninvestorwouldordinarilyexpect for an asset, givenits
specific riskprofile.It isused todiscount future cashflowsin relationtoan asset in order toarrive at avalue for the
asset.The discount rate compensatesan investor for:
鉴于个别风险预测，贴现率代表了投资者通常会对资产的预期期望的风险调整盈利率。为了实现某个字长的价值，风险调整盈利率被用来贴现与该资产有关的未来现金流。贴现率在下述方面补偿了投资者:
◆ The timevalueof money
货币的时间价值
◆ The relative riskinessoftheinvestment.
投资的相对风险
The calculationof adiscountrateisexplainedinAppendix11(page53).
附件11给出了贴现率的计算(第53页)中解释。
7.2 Assessmentofdiscountrates贴现率的评估
In determiningan appropriatediscountrate, wehave consideredthe relativeriskinessassociated withthe forecast cash flows andthe typicalratesofreturnrequiredbyinvestorsfor investments with similar risks as shownin thetablebelow:
在确定适当的贴现率的时候，对于具有类似风险的投资，我们考虑了投资者要求的、与预测现金流和典型回报率有关的相对风险，如下表所示:
|||||
|-|-|-|-|
|Discount||Eys贴现率调查||
|ratesurv||||
|Source来源||Final Stage最后阶段|Bridge/IPO|
|Stern Schoolof Business斯特恩商学院|1|35-50%|25-35%|
|HarvardBusinessSchool哈佛商学院|2|20-26%|16-23%|
|LondonBusinessSchool伦敦商学院|3|20-34%|17-23%|
|Manigartet alManigart等人|4|26-30%|n/a|
|Pepperdine University佩珀代因大学|5|21-31%|18-28%|

Sources:
1 Valuing Young,Start-up and Growth Companies:Estimation issuesand Valuation Challenges,Aswath Damodaran,Stern Schoolof Business,NewYorkUniversity,May2009
2 Insightsfromthe American Venture CapitalOrganisation,Harvard BusinessSchool,1991
3 Venture Capitalin the United Kingdom,The London BusinessSchool,April1994
4 Determinantsofrequired return in venture capitalinvestments:Afive countrystudy,Sophie Manigartetal,2002
5 Pepperdine Private CapitalMarketsProject:CapitalMarketsReport2016,Graziadio SchoolofBusinessand Management
来源
1.评价初期、创业和成长型企业:评估问题和评估挑战，AswathDamodaran，纽约大学斯特恩商学院，2009年5月。
2.美国风投组织的观察，哈佛商学院，1991年。
3.英国风投，伦敦商业学校，1994年4月。
4.风投资要求回报的决定因素:对五个国家的研究，索菲·马尼戈特等人,2002年；
5.佩珀代因私人资本市场项目:2016年资本市场报告，格拉齐亚迪奥经营管理学院。
One of theleading researchersintothe costof capitalforsmallprivate companiesis Dr. JohnK Paglia of Pepperdine
University. Dr. Paglia isone of thefounders of the PrivateCapitalMarkets Project publishes regular updates tothe
Private CapitalMarkets Report. The March2016 report contained thefollowing datapoints:
佩珀代因大学的John KPaglia博士是小私有企业资本成本的主要研究人员之一。Paglia博士是私人资本市场项目的创始人之一，定期更新私人资本市场的报告。2016年3月的报告包含以下数据点:
◆ Median discount rate for seed stage venture capitalinvestmentswas38%
种子期风险投资的中间贴现率为38%
◆ Median discount rate for startup stageventure capitalinvestmentswas33%
启动期风险投资的中间贴现率为33%
◆ Median discount rate for seed stage angelinvestmentswas35.5%
种子期天使投资的中间贴现率为35.5%
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
◆ Median discount rate for startup stageangel investmentswas35.5%
启动期天使投资的中间贴现率为35.5%
We notethat the abovediscount rates aretypicallyapplied toa single scenario andthereforeinclude risksassociated with downside scenarios andfailurewhich wehave attempted to consider using probabilityweightings.
我们注意到，上述贴现率通常适用于单个方案，因此包括与下行方案和失败相关的风险，此类失败指的是我们已经尝试考虑使用概率权重，但仍然失败了。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
7.3CAPMbuild-upCAPM积累
While theCAPMis better suited toassessingdiscountratesfor largercompaniesthanEthtec,wehaveused the model as a cross-checkto our assesseddiscount rates.
虽然CAPM更适合于评估大公司的贴现率，而不是评估Ethtec的的贴现率，我们已用该模型反复核对，以评估我们的贴现率。
||||
|-|-|-|
|Discount ratesummary贴现率小结|||
|Low低||High高|
|Risk freerate (R)无风险折现率f|2|2.7%|
|Equitybeta(β)权益贝塔|.1.00|1.10|
|Equitymarket riskpremium(EMRP)股市风险溢价|76.5%%|6.5%|
|Standard CAPMcost of equity标准CAPM的权益成本|9.2%|9.9%|
|Sizepremium(α )规模溢价size|7|8.0%|
|Specific riskpremium(α)具体风险溢价c|.3|3.0%|
|Assessedcost of equity(k )评估股权成本e|0.19.2%%|20.9%|
||0||
||%||
|Gearing (D/V)资金杠杆|10.0%|5.0%|
|Costof debt(K )举债成本d|7.5%|8.5%|
|Taxrate(t)税率|30.0%|30.0%|
|CalculatedWACC加权平均计算|17.8%|20.1%|
|SelectedWACC选择加权平均|18.0%|20.0%|

7.4 Conclusion结论
We believeEthtec is most similartoaventure capitalorangelinvestor startup fundingstage company. However, wenote thattheabove startuprates of returnoften includea significant premium toaccount forfailurerisk. Aswe areassessing the riskof failure separatelyinour scenarioanalysis andprobabilityweighting, we believealowerdiscountrateis more appropriate. As such,wehave assessedthe discountrate of20.0%.
我们认为：Ethtec与风险投资或天使投资创业融资阶段的公司最为相似。然而，我们注意到：上述创业公司的回报率通常包括了一个大额费用，用于应对失败的风险。当我们分别在方案分析和概率加权中评估失败风险时，我们认为较低的折扣率更合适。因此，我们评估贴现率为20.0%。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
8. Enterprise Value企业价值
8.1 Presentvalueofforecastperiod预测期的折现值
Using the cashflowprojectionsanddiscountratesdiscussedpreviouslywedeterminedan enterprisevaluefor Ethtec using thebase case cashflowsas follows(presentedusing thelower royaltyrateof6.0%):
使用之前讨论过的现金流预测和贴现率，我们通过下述基本案例的现金流（使用的专利使用费费率为6.0%），确定了Ethtec的企业价值：
Presentvalue折现值($'000)
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
The net presentvalueof these cashflowprojectionsis$41.1 millionto$47.7 million applyingadiscountrateof20.0%.
使用的贴现率为20.0%的情况下，这些现金流预测的净现值为4110万美元至4770万美元。
8.2Terminalvalue终值
We havedetermineda continuingvalueattheendof theforecast period onthebasisofcapitalisingfree cash flowsin
perpetuity.This isdetermined with thefollowing formula:
在充分利用自由现金流的基础之上，我们确定了在预测期结束时的续营价值。该价值可由以下公式决定的: 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 5202 6202 7202 8202 9202 0302 1302 2302 3302 4302 5302 6302 7302 8302 9302 0402 1402 2402
|||
|-|-|
|Formula公式 Components分量||
|V=CF /(γ-g)t t+l|V = thevalueattime'tt|
||CF = expected cashflowat time't+1' rt+1|
||= thediscount rate|
||g= the longtermgrowthrate|
||V =时间't时的值t|
||CF =时间't+1'是预期的现金流t+1|
||r = 贴现率|
||g= 长期增长率|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
This value must be discountedbackto itspresent value,asper the calculationbelow.
这个值必须按照下面计算方法，折现到现值。
We haveassumed that thegrowth infree cash flowswillapproximate our estimateofthe Australianlong-term nominal inflationrate(2.0%),implyingazero realgrowth ratefor the businesstoallowfor theuncertaintyinrespectof volumes and pricingover time.Thisresultsina terminalvalueasfollows:
我们假设自由现金流的增长可能会接近我们预估的澳大利亚长期名义通货膨胀率(2.0%)，这说明业务的实际增长率为零，以允许随着时间的推移存在数量和价格上的不确定性。这就导致如下终值：
|||||
|-|-|-|-|
|Terminal Value 终值($'000)||||
|Low低|||High高|
|Discount Rate贴现率||20.0%|20.0%|
|Long termgrowth rate长期增长率||2.0%|2.0%|
|Multiple盈利倍数|[A]|5.6x|5.6x|
|Unlevered free cash flow无杠杆自由现金流(t )0||78,389|94,247|
|Growth at long termgrowth rate长期增长率的增长||1,568|1,885|
|Unleveredfreecash flow无杠杆自由现金流(t )1|[B]|79,957|96,132|
|Terminalvalue终值|[AxB]|444,203|534,069|
|Discountfactor贴现因素||0.010|0.010|
|Presentvalueofterminal value终值的折现值||4,251|5,111|

8.3 Enterprisevalue企业价值
The base caseenterprise valuerangeof Ethtecis calculated inthetablebelow:
Ethtec的基础案例中的企业价值范围在以下表格中进行了计算:
||||
|-|-|-|
|Enterprise Value公司价值 ($'000)|||
|Low||High|
|NPVof cashflows 现金流的净现值|41,125|47,747|
|Terminalvalue终值|4,251|5,111|
|Enterprise Value公司价值|45,376|52,857|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
9. Scenario Analysis方案分析
9.1Introduction介绍
Given theearlystagenature of Ethtec andthe uncertaintiesinherentinforecasts of future operationsand cashflowsfor an entitywithno commercialtrackrecord (asis common for earlystage companies),wehaveevaluated other potential scenarios in conjunctionwith informationprovidedbymanagement. These scenariosare describedbelow.
考虑到Ethtec的早期特性，以及对一个无商业记录（对于还处于早期阶段的公司来说，这是很常见的）的实体的未来经营和现金流预测来说固有的不确定性，我们已经评估了与管理层提供的信息有关的其它可能方案。这些方案在下文进行详细描述。
9.2 Upsidecase上涨情况
The base case scenarioassumes productionvolumes arein linewithpotentialdomestic demand. Oneof theprobable avenues for commercialisation of the EthtecProcessincludes thepotential for theprocess tobe utilisedbyplants outside of Australia. Whilethere isalsopotential for Australian-produced ethanoltobe exportedoverseas(assuming
sufficientlocal supply),the costs of exportingalong withtariffs or exciseimposed byimporting countries mayprove
prohibitive. As such,we consider it more probablythat theprocess is simplyadoptedforusein secondgeneration ethanol plants internationally, likelyin conjunction withlocal partners.
基本情况中的的假定产量与潜在的国内需求相一致。Ethtec工艺的商业化的可能途径之一，包括该工艺在澳大利亚以外的工厂使用的可能性。尽管澳大利亚产乙醇也有出口到海外的可能(假设当地供应充足)，但是进口国家征收关税或消费税的成本可能过高。因此，我们认为：该工艺在国际上用于工厂生产二代乙醇的可能性要更大于，很可能与当地合作伙伴一起合作。
In addition, Ethtec managementbelievethata cost-effectivexylitol productionprocess (such asthrough theEthtec
Process)willenableexpansion of thexylitol market andfuel further demandforxylitolasa sugar alternative. Wehave therefore incorporatedinternational royaltiesfromutilisation of theEthtec Process anda royaltyon sales of xylitol from two plantsinto our upside case.
此外，Ethtec的管理层认为:一种合乎成本效益的木糖醇生产工艺（比如通过Ethtec工艺）能扩大木糖醇市场，进一步推动木糖醇作为糖的替代品。因此，我们已将使用Ethtec工艺的国际专利使用费以及两个工厂的木糖醇销售专利使用费结合到了我们的上涨情况中。
The followingisa summaryof theassumptions madeinrelation totheupside case:
以下是上涨情况中假设的摘要信息:
◆ The first two Ethtecplants areassumedto be mixed ethanol/xylitolplants with every plant after thatassumedtobe ethanol-onlyplantsdue touncertaintyinoverall marketsizeforxylitoland theabilityfor Ethtecto captureaproportion ofthat market. Each mixed plant hasa nameplateethanol production capacityof36MLand xylitol capacityof 18,857
tonnes.Theinitial capitaloutlayto construct a mixedethanol / xylitolplants isassumed tobe1.5 timesthe cost of a pure ethanolplant. Operating costsperlitreof ethanol producedare assumedtoremain the same. However,additional
operating costsof$1 per kgof xylitol producedareassumedto beincurred
前两个Ethtec工厂被设定为乙醇/木糖醇混合工厂，在这之后，由于木糖醇整个市场的不确定性，以及Ethtec为了占领一部分市场，这两个工厂被假定为纯乙醇工厂。每一个混合工厂的铭牌乙醇产能为36ML，木糖醇的产能为 18,857吨。
建立混合乙醇/木糖醇工厂的初始资本支出，假定为纯乙醇工厂成本的1.5倍。每升乙醇的生产成本被认为是不变的。但是，也认为每生产一千克木糖醇会产生额外经营成本。
◆ The first international EthtecProcess plant is assumedtobegin operations5 yearsafterthefirstoperationalplant in Australia.Theramp-up profileof international plantsis assumedtofollowa similar ramp-up profileto Australia. The maximum number of plants hasbeen capped at 116plantswhichis[fourtimes] theforecastmaximumnumber ofAustralian plantsin thebase case. Given that globalethanol productionin[2025] is forecast tobeapproximately[130]billion litres, 116 plantsproducingapproximately6.9billionlitres of ethanol stillrepresentsonly5% of global production
◆ All other baseassumptionsremainthe sameasthebase case
所有其他情况中的基本假设与基本情况中的保持一致
The aboveassumptions generatethe followingprojectedfree cashflows usingthelowerroyaltyrateof6.0%:
||
|-|
|在使用了较低的专利使用费费率6.0%，上述假设产生了下述预期自由现金流量：|
|Freecashflows自由现金流量($'000)350,000300,000250,0004957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 28of59|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
These cashflowprojections produceanenterprisevalue of$110.2 millionto$128.7 millionapplying adiscountrateof20.0%.基于这些现金流预测，在贴现率为20.0%的情况下，公司的企业价值为1.102亿美元至1.870亿美元。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
9.3 Lowcase
The successful completionof Phases3and 4of theresearch anddevelopment oftheEthtecProcessincludes demonstrating particular levels of efficiencyat fermenting Ethtec sugarsolutionsto ethanolatcommercial scale aswell as
demonstratingthe commercial advantagesina combinedethanolrecoveryandwastetreatmentprocess.Basedon the
documentationprovided anddiscussions withEthtec management, should theseprocesses proveless efficient than envisaged,commercialisationoftheEthtecProcess would still beachievablebyincorporatingexisting thirdparty processes or technologyinto theEthtecProcessand / or through commercialising other productswhich could alsobe developed fromthe sameprocess. There aretherefore awiderange of potential outcomes, inthis instance, in termsofethanol /
xylitolproductionvolumes(which could stillaligntothe Base caseor UpsideCase asper above) and/ or pricing andvolumes from commercialisationofother products such asxylitolonly,bioplastics, etc. As
wehavenotspecificallyconsideredotherpotentialproductsormarketsto commercialise
theexistingtechnology(whichwouldlikely have alower addressable market and/or margins),we
havethereforeimplicitlyreflected thispotentialin our assessed royaltyrate. As such,for thepurpose of this
scenario,wehaveassumed productionvolumesatsimilar scaleto thebase case,albeit with higher plant operating costsand implicitlylower royaltyrevenuesavailableto Ethtec. Alower royalty returnof[2.0%] to[3.0%]hasbeen appliedin this
scenarioreflecting thesefactors.
Ethtec工艺研发中，阶段3和阶段4的成功实施，包括证明在商业规模下，使用发酵的Ethtec糖溶液转化成特定浓度乙醇的效率，以及证明混合乙醇回收和废物处理过程中的商业优势。基于提供的文档以及与Ethtec管理层的讨论，得知这些过程应该比设想的效率更低，但通过现有的第三方工艺整个到Ethtec工艺中，以及/或通过商业化同一个工艺中的其它产品，Ethtec工艺的商业化仍然可实现。因此在此例中，存在很多潜在结果，比如从乙醇/木糖醇的产量(仍然可以对应到基本情况或上涨情况中的每种情况)和/或定价，以及其它产品的商业化，如木糖醇，生物塑料等。因为我们没有特别考虑其他可能影响现有技术商业化（可能会有一个更低可寻址市场和/或利润率）的产品或市场，因此我们已在经评估的专利费率中含蓄地反映了这点。所以就这个设想来说，尽管有更高的工厂运营成本，也暗暗地降低了Ethtec的版税收入，我们假设产量与基本情况相似。在反映这些因素的方案中，应用了较低的专利使用费费率[2.0%]到[3.0%]。
The aboveassumptions generatethe followingprojectedfree cashflows usingthelowerroyaltyrateof2.0%:
在使用较低专利使用费费率2.0%的情况下，上述假设会产生下述预期的自由现金流。
Freecashflows自由现
金流量($'000)
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
These cashflowprojections produceanenterprisevalue of$12.3 millionto$19.9 millionapplying a discountrateof20.0%.在贴现率为20.0%的情况下，基于这些现金流预测，企业价值估计为1,230万美元至1,990万美元。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
9.4 Failure case
The final scenariowhichwe haveincludedinouranalysisaccountsfor the failureof theprojecttoreach commercialisation stage. There couldbevarious factors contributingto thisoutcome includingtechnicalbarriers anda lack of funding.For thepurpose of thisanalysis,wehaveassumed that theprojectisdiscontinued attheend of 2021 (the expectedend point of the researchanddevelopmentproject) withno revenuegenerated. This assumptionresultsin the following cashflowprofile:我们的分析中所含的最后一个方案解释了该项目未能商业化的原因。导致这一结果的原因可能各种各样，包括技术壁垒和资金缺乏。就本分析而言，我们假定该项目在2021年年底（研发项目的预期终点）停产，同时没有任何收益。这样的假设会产生如下的现金流概况:
Freecashflows自由现
金流量($'000)
0
-4,000
The net presentvalueof these negative cashflowprojectionsisnegative$6.5 million applyingadiscountrateof20.0%.在贴现率为20.0%的情况下，这些负现金流的净现值是-650万美元。
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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
10. Scenario Outputand Conclusion方案的产出和结论
10.1Introduction介绍
In order todetermine anassessedvalue for Ethtec,wehave assignedthefourpossible scenariosoutlinedin Sections6 and 9aprobabilityweighting. Eachprobabilityweightinghasbeen selected in conjunctionwith discussionswith managementabout the likelihoodofeachoutcome.
为了确定Ethtec的评估值，我们已经为第6和9节中的四种可能方案进行了概率加权。每一个概率加权值的选择都与管理层对每个结果的可能性的讨论有关。
10.2 Scenariooutput方案产出
The followingtabledetails theassumptionsunderpinningeach selectedprobabilityvalue andtheassessedvalue of each scenario:下面的表格详细描述了基于每个所选概率值和每个方案评估值的假设:
|||||
|-|-|-|-|
|Scenario Output 方案产出($'000)||||
|Enterprise Value 企业价值Scenarios方案 Evaluation评估 Probability概率||||
|Low低 High高||||
|Base case|♦|Mostlikelyoutcomegiventhelowremainingtechnical risksof the 50% 45,376 52,857||
|||project,asadvised by Ethtec,andthe interest in theproject||
|shown bypotential investors就如Ethtec的建议一样，最有可能的结果是该项目||||
|的技术风险较低，并且潜在投资者表现出对该项目的兴趣。||||
||♦|The underlyingassumptionsinthis||
|||scenariogenerallyrepresentreasonablylikelyorconservativeestimates of||
|||future performance||
|Upside case|♦|本方案中，基本假设通常代表了对未来绩效的合理估计或保守估计。Given the significant ramp-upinforecast revenue under this 20% 110,190 128,742||
|||scenario andthe levelof uncertaintyinvolvedin estimatingtake-||
|||up ratesfortwodistinctproductionprocesses (ethanolandxylitol)||
|||which are stillindevelopment, we haveassignedthis scenarioa||
|||lowprobabilityweighting考虑到在本方案下预测收入的大幅增长以及不确定性的||
|||程度，涉及估计两种不同生产工艺（仍在开发中）的吸纳率（乙醇和木糖醇），我们已给该||
|||方案分配了一个低概率加权。||
|||In addition,xylitolis stilla relativelynewopportunityfor Ethtec (compared||
|||toethanol) whichhas not beenexplored in great detail||
|||此外，对Ethtec来说木糖醇还是一个相对较新的机遇(与乙醇相比)，也是一个还未详细探讨的机||
|||遇。||
|Lowcase|♦|From discussionwithEthtec management, itisbelievedthat it is 25% 12,302 19,880||
|||more likelyfor commercial scaletestingto produceless-than-||
|||optimal production efficienciesthan fortheentire EthtecProcess||
|||to be considered commerciallyunfeasible. As such,we consider||
|||this scenariolesslikelythan thebase casebutmorelikelythan||
|||the failure case基于与Ethtec管理的讨论，我们认为商业规模测试的生产||
|||效率要低于整个Ethtec工艺的生产效率，Ethtec工艺在商业上被认为是不可行的。因此，||
|||我们认为这种情况比基本情况更少，但比失败案例可能性却更大。||
|Failure case|♦|Given the current stageof the project, thelowremainingtechnical 5% (6,530) (6,530)||
|||risks,theongoing ARENA funding applicationand interest from||
|||otherinvestors, this scenario appearstobe reasonablyunlikely。||
|||考虑到项目当前阶段的现状、遗留的技术方面的低风险、阿瑞娜（ARENA）正在审核的融资申请，||
|||以及其他投资者的利益，这个方案似乎不太可能发生。下表格详细描述了每个所选的概率值以及||
|||每个方案评估值的假设。||
|Probabilityweightedvalue概率加权值|||47,475 56,821|

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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
10.3Conclusion结论
||||
|-|-|-|
|Assessedvalue估定价值($'000)|||
|Low低||High高|
|Probabilityweightedvalue概率加权值|[47,475]|[56,821]|
|Assessedvalue估定价值|[50,000]|[60,000]|

In selectingour assessedvaluation rangewehave considered theprobabilityweightingsabove aswellas:
在选择我们的评估范围时，我们不仅考虑了上述加权值，还考虑了以下几点：
◆ The potentialforfurther developmentand commercialisationoftheDiesehol technology. This technologywouldallow ethanol tobeblendedwithdiesel fuelinvarying degreesforuseineither existingdiesel enginesor engineswith minor modifications.Wenote that this couldbe a sizable marketopportunitybut is subject to significantuncertaintyin respectof whenor if this willbe commercialised andthe modelfor doing so. Ourscenariosabovedonot includeany revenue
fromDiesohol
进一步开发柴油乙醇技术并将其商业化的潜力。该技术可以使乙醇在不同程度上与柴油混合，用于现有的柴油发动机或小幅改良发动机。我们注意到，这可能是一个相当大的市场基于机遇，但就何时或是否会商业化以及商业户模型方面仍有存在很不确定性。上述方案不含任何与柴油有关的收入。
◆ To theextenttheProject is successful, Ethtecwould likelybe adesirableacquisition target for a number of large corporations (suchasenergycompanies,equipment manufacturersor resource owners) that maybe willingtopaya strategic premiumgiventhe potential synergiesthatmaybeavailable basedonexisting installed capacityand / or
cheaperaccessto feedstock
若项目成功，Ethtec很可能成为一个令许多大公司（例如能源公司、设备制造商或资源所有者）满意的收购目标，这些大公司在有潜在的协同效应的情况下，愿意支付战略溢价，而协同效应在现有的装机容量和/或更便宜的原料渠道下，是可行的。
10.4Sensitivityanalysis灵敏度分析
We haveperformeda sensitivityanalysisonthe base case scenario (assuminga midpoint royaltyrate of6.5%) to provide anindicationoftheimpact of changes in keyvariables ontheenterprisevalue of thebase case. Theresultsofthe
sensitivityanalysis aredisplayed inthe following chart:
为了说明关键变量变更对基本情况中企业价值的影响，我们针对基本情况进行了敏感性分析（假设专利使用费费率为6.5%）。敏感性分析结果如下图所示:
SensitivityAnalysis灵敏度分析($'m)
Ethanolplantcapacity乙醇工厂生产能力(+/- 15ML)
Ethanolprice乙醇价格(+/-10%)
Inflationrate通胀率(+/- 0.5pp)
Operatingexpenses经营支出(+/-10%)
Upfrontfees前期费用(+/-20%)
PPElevelsas% ofrevenue(30%to50%)PPE水平是收益的%
Technicalservicefees技术服务费(+/-20%)
R&D taxincentiverate研发税收优惠率(+/-20%)
Xylitolprice木糖醇价格(+/-20%)
Grantincome补助收入(+/-20%)
Ethanolexcise乙醇特许权(+/-10%)
ApaceroyaltyrateApace专利使用费费率(+/- 1pp)
Rate of declineinR&D eligible expenditure(+/-5%)
研发合格支出的下降率(+/-5%)
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
11. Valuation Summary
评估总结
Based onthepreceding analysis, wehaveassessed thevalueof an Ethtec shareasfollows:
根据前面的分析，我们评估了Ethtec每股股份的价值:
||||
|-|-|-|
|Enterprise value 企业价值|||
|($'000)|||
|Low低||High高|
|Enterprise value企业价值|50,000|60,000|
|Surplus assets盈余资产|-|-|
|Netdebt净债务|-|-|
|Equityvalue股权价值|50,000|60,000|
|Ordinarysharesonissue发行普通股('000)|16,042|16,042|
|Assessedvalueperordinaryshare每股普通股的估定价值|3.12|3.74|

Source:Leadenhallanalysis
来源：伦敦肉类市场分析
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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix1: Glossary附件 1术语表
|||
|-|-|
|Term术语 Description描述||
|Asset (Asset-Based) Approach|Ageneralwayof determining avalueindicationof abusiness, business|
|评估(资产)的方法|ownership interest, or securityusing oneor more methods basedonthevalue|
||ofthe assets net ofliabilities.使用一个或多个基于资产净值负债的方法，确定业|
||务、业务所有者权益或证券的一种普通方法。|
|Beta (β)|Ameasureofthe systematic,or marketriskofaparticularinvestment.一个系统的测|
||量，或特定投资的市场风险。|
|Capital Asset PricingModel(CAPM)|Awidelyused modelforestimatingthe cost ofequityofanentity.一种广泛使用的、|
|资本资产定价模型|估计实体资产成本的模型|
|Capitalisation of EarningMethod|Amethodwithinthe incomeapproachwherebyeconomicbenefitsfor a|
|资本化的方法|representativesingleperiodare converted tovaluethroughdivision bya|
||capitalisationrate.收入方法中的一种方法；借此方法，一个代表性的单期|
||经济效益按资本化率转换为价值。|
|CompanySpecificRiskPremium(α)c|Adjustments to the costof capital toaccountfor differences inrisk between|
|公司特定风险溢价|the subjectentityand comparableentities usedforestimatingthe cost|
||ofcapital.资本成本的调整，用来解释不同目标实体和类似实体之间风险的|
||差异，用于估计资本成本。|
|Control Premium控制权溢价|An amount or apercentage bywhichthepro ratavalueof a controlling|
||interestexceedsthepro ratavalueofanon-controllinginterestinabusiness|
||enterprise,to reflectthepowerofcontrol.反应控制力量的金额或百分比；借此，|
||某个企业中的控制利息的比例价值超过了非控制利息的比例价值。|
|DiscountforLackofMarketability|An amount orpercentagedeductedfrom thevalueof anownership interest to|
|缺乏市场流通性的贴现|reflectthe relative absence of marketability.|
||反应市场缺乏流通性的、从所有者权益的价值中扣除的金额或百分比。|
|Discount Rate贴现率|Arateofreturnused to convert a future monetarysuminto present value.用于将未|
||来货币和现值转换为现值的收益率。|
|Discounted CashFlowMethod|Amethodwithin theincomeapproach wherebythepresentvalueof future|
|贴现现金流方法|expected net cash flowsis calculated usinga discount rate.收入方法中的一种方|
||法；在使用某个贴现率的情况下，借此方法来计算未来预期净现金流的现值。|
|EBIT|Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.支付利息和税收之前的收益|
|EBITDA|Earnings Before Interest,Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation.支付利息和税|
||收、折旧及摊销之前的收益|
|Equity股权|The owner’sinterestinpropertyafter deduction ofall liabilities.在扣除所有负债|
||后，业主对财产的利息。|
|EquityMarket RiskPremium(EMRP)|The additional returnthatinvestorsexpectfroma diversifiedportfolio of equity|
||investments overtheexpected returnfrom riskfree assets.投资者期望从多元化的|
||股票投资组合中获得收益减去预期无风险资产的回报，得到的回报。|
|MinorityDiscount少数股权贴现|Adiscount forlackofcontrolapplicable toa minorityinterest.由于对少数股权利益缺|
||乏控制的折扣。|
|Net Present Value净现值|The value, as of a specified date, offuture cashinflows lessall cashoutflows|
||(including the costof investment)calculatedusing|
||anappropriatediscountrate.截止某个具体日期的、以适当的贴现率计算的、|
||比其他一切未来的现金流都少的价值(包括投资成本)。|
|Nominal名义|Includinginflation.包括通胀|
|Risk FreeRate(R)无风险贴现率f|The rateof return that investorswould requirefor holding ariskfree|
||investment.投资者持有无风险投资所需的回报率。|
|SizePremium(α)规模溢价s|The additionalreturnrequired duetothe greater riskassociated with smaller|
||companies.与较小公司有关的更大风险所要求的额外回报|
|Valuation Date估值日期|The specificpoint in timeasofwhichthevaluator's opinionof valueapplies.|
||估价师对价值的看法被采用的具体的时间点|
|Weighted AverageCostof Capital|The average cost ofcapitalfor abusiness basedonappropriateweightings|
|(WACC)加权平均资本成本|fordebtandequityfunding.基于适当的负债和股权融资权重的企业的平均资本成本|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix2: StandardsofValue
附件2：价值标准
Introduction介绍
The standardof value that wehaveapplied for thisopinionis fair market value. Fair market value isdefinedinthe
International Glossaryof BusinessValuation Termsas:
我们对这个观点所采用价值标准是公平市价。公平市价在国际商业估价术语表中定义如下:
“theprice, expressed intermsofcashequivalents,at which propertywould changehandsbetween ahypothetical willing andablebuyer and ahypotheticalwilling andable seller, actingat armslength inanopenandunrestricted market,
whenneither isundercompulsiontobuyor sell andwhenbothhave reasonable knowledgeof therelevantfacts.”
“用现金等价物表示的价格，若存在购买意向和有能力的买家，以及酷游售卖意向的买家，当双方都不是强制购买或售卖且都对相关事实有合理了解之时，那么资产会在一个开放而不受限制的市场上在上述两者间以这样的价格易手。” There arefour separate standardsof valuethatcanbeappliedwhen preparingavaluation. These standardsare
summarised belowandexplained indetailfurther down.
在准备估值时，有四个单独的价值标准可以应用。将在在下文总结并详细解释这些标准。
Fair value-canbe defineddifferentlydependingon the context of the valuation. TheInternational ValuationsStandards define fair value as"the estimated priceforthetransferof anassetor liability betweenidentified knowledgeableand
willingparties that reflects therespective interestsofthoseparties." This is somewhatdifferent to thedefinition usedfor financial reporting, which isdiscussed further below.
公允价值-根据估值不同背景，可以有不同的定义。国际估价标准将公允价值定义为：“一项财产的估算换手价格，或在已知、事实有清晰了解且有意愿的买卖双方之间、能反映当事人各自利益的责任。”该定义与用于财务报告中的公允价值定义有些不同，将在下面进一步讨论。
Marketvalue- is generallyusedfortaxationpurposesand referstothe pricenegotiatedin anunrestricted marketbetween a knowledgeableandwilling buyer and seller inan arm'slengthtransaction.
市价-一般是课税用，并且指的是在不受限制的市场上，对事实有清晰了解且有意愿的买卖双方之间所议定的价格。
Fairmarket value- is asdefinedaboveand isusuallyusedforvaluationswhereneither oftwodefinitionsareaboveare required tobe applied. We consider thedefinition of fairmarket valueto be consistentwithboththe AASB 13 definitionoffairvalueand thedefinition of marketvaluefortaxationpurposes.
公平市价-如上文定义的，并通常用于某些估价，也就是当要求不适用以上两种定义的情况下。我们认为：公平市价的定义是与AASB13中定义的公平价值以及税收目的而定义的市价是一致的。
Special Value - is onlyappliedwhen theasset isofparticular valueto a specificpurchaserbecauseof
advantagesofownership that would not beavailable toother buyers.
特别价值-只有当资产对于特定的买方具有特殊价值的时候才适用，而此类买方的购买原因是存在对其它买方不可用的所有权优势。
FinancialReporting财务报表
Australian AccountingStandard AASB 13 Fair ValueMeasurement was introducedinSeptember 2011 andappliesto entities includingthose requiredbytheCorporationsAct2001to preparefinancialreports.Theobjective of the standard was
todefineand setout a singleframework for measuringfair value. The concept offair valueisdefined in AASB 13as follows:澳大利亚会计标准AASB13公允价值计量于2011年9月出台，适用于众多实体去编制财务报表，包括《2001年公司法》要求的实体。该标准的目标是定义并建立一个衡量公允价值的单一框架。公允价值在AASB13中定义如下:
"Thepricethat would bereceivedto sell anassetorpaidtotransfer a liabilityinan
orderlytransactionbetweenmarketparticipants atthe measurementdate."
“在计量日，在市场参与者之间的一个有序交易中，资产出售或转让债务所支付的价格。”
Setout inthe tablebelowisadditional guidance onthe keyconceptsraisedinthe definitionof Fair Value providedin
AASB13.
下表列出AASB13中提供的公允价值定义中所提出的关键概念的附加指导。
|||
|-|-|
|Concept概念|Guidance指导|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
|||
|-|-|
|Market Driven市场驱动|◆ Hypothetical transaction between willingparties双方之间的假设交易|
||◆ Assume participantsare knowledgeable假定参与者获悉一切相关信息|
||◆ Neitherpartyanxious / distressed双方都不焦急/受损|
||◆ Entity’s abilityorintentionto sellis irrelevant实体的销售能力或意图是无关紧要的|
|Orderly Transaction有序交|◆ Assumes exposureto the market foraperiodbefore the measurementdateto|
|易|allowfor marketing activitiesthatarenecessary假设在测量日期之前，假设在市场|
||上进行一段时间的展示，以便进行必要的营销活动|
||◆ Notaforced transaction(ega forcedliquidation ordistress sale)非强制性交易(如强|
||制清算或紧急出售)|
|Measurement Date计量日|◆ On theday(no smoothingpermitted)当日(不允许平滑)|
||◆ Reflects prevailing market conditions反映了当时的市场条件|
|Exit Price出手价|◆ The pricereceivedor paidin cashterms以现金方式收取或支付的价格|
||◆ Value ontheday(duringvolatiletimes,increasedvolatilityinvalue)|
||当天的价值(在波动期间，价值波动加剧)|
||◆ Before transaction costs交易成本之前|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案讨论的目的
Valuation ofEthtecEthtec的资产评估
AASB13identifiesa number of determinants of value, which wesummarisebelow.AASB13确定了一些价值的决定因素，我们总结如下：
|||
|-|-|
|Determinant决定因素|Description描述|
|Characteristics特征|◆ Condition andlocation–include transport costs条件和位置——包括运输成本|
||◆ Restrictions on saleor use对销售或使用的限制|
||◆ Ignore characteristics ofentityholdingasset:忽略实体持有资产的特征:|
||- Agreements not to sellasset不出售资产协议|
||- Agreements forspecificuse that do not transferwithasset具有使用约束的非|
||资产转让协议|
|Principal Market主要市场|◆ Marketwith greatest volume具有最大体积的市场|
||◆ Marketentitynormallytransacts in, subjectto contraryevidence按照相反证据，市场|
||实体通常会在其中交易|
||◆ Adjustfortransportbut nottransaction costs调整运输方式，但不调整交易成本|
||◆ Ifno principal market,most advantageous market若不存在主要市场、最有益的市|
||场|
||◆ Mostadvantageous market maximises theamountreceived, aftertransport and|
||transactioncosts在运输和支付交易费用之后，最有力的市场将收到的金额最大|
||化，|
||◆ Some itemsrarelyifever bought / sold (in such casestake a‘hypothetical|
||marketparticipantperspective’)有些物品很少买或卖（在这些例子中，采|
|HighestandBest Use最大最佳用途|◆ “By假a 设ma市rk场et参pa与rti者cip的an观t通点过”市）场 参与者|
||◆ Physicallypossible, legallypermissibleand financiallyfeasible在法律上允许和在经|
||济上可行|
||◆ Currentusepresumedtobe highest andbest use当前使用假定的最大最佳用途|
||◆ Assets not used(e.g.helddefensively) still valuedbasedon highest andbest不使用|
||的资产(如防御)仍然以最高和最好的价值为基础|
||◆ Assume market participanthas complementaryassets假设市场参与者拥有互补的|
||资产|
||◆ Notrelevanttofinancial assets/liabilities与金融资产/负债无关|
|Valuation Techniques评估技巧|◆ Specific requirements(unless quotedpricein active market)具体要求(除非活跃市场|
||中报价)|
||◆ Marketapproach:市场方法|
||- Prices / ratios价格/比率|
||- Markettransactions市场交易|
||- Identical or similarassets/liabilities相同或相似的资产/负债|
||◆ Costapproach:成本方法|
||- Costto replacethe functionoftheasset取代资产功能的成本|
||◆ Income approach:收入方法|
||- Discounted cashflow贴现现金流|
||- Option pricing methods期权定价法|
|Assumptions假设|◆ Use assumptions marketparticipantswoulduse–noneed toidentifyspecific使用市|
||场参与者可能使用的假设—不用具体识别|
||◆ Maximise useof observableinputs最大限度地使用可观察投入|
||◆ Premiums anddiscounts:溢价和贴现：|
||- Exclude blockagediscounts折价|
||- Include marketabilitydiscount(if appropriate)包括市场折扣(若合适)|
||- Include controlpremium (asrelevant)包括控制权溢价(相关)|
||◆ Bid ask spread:买卖差价|
||- Use pricewithin spread most representative of fair value使用最代表公允价|
||值的价格|
||- Could use mid-market pricing可以使用中端市场定价|
||- More conservative – bidfor assets,askfor liabilities更保守的-对资产的出|
||价，要求负债|
|Transaction price maynot equalFair|◆ Related parties相关方|
|Value if thereare|◆ Forced seller被迫出售方|

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|||
|-|-|
|Valuation ofEthtec Ethtec的资产评估||
|交易价可能与公允价值不符（若有）|◆ Unit of account for transaction ≠ unit of account for reporting交易账户的单位≠报|
||告中的账户单位|
||◆ Transaction not in principal market.交易不是在主要市场中发生|
|Iftransaction at Fair Value若以公允价|◆ Unobservable inputs calibrated totransaction price不可见的投入，按照交易价格|
|值交易|校准|
||◆ Future reassessmentsreflect onlychangesinvalue未来的重新评估仅仅反映价值|
||的变化|
|LiabilityandEquity负债和权益|◆ Assume transfer(notextinguishment/settlement)假设转让(非偿清/交割)|
||◆ Considerprofit marginrequired toassumeliability考虑承担责任所需利润率|
||◆ Expected cost to anentitytofulfil maynot equal Fair Value实体要实现的预期成本|
||可能不等于公允价值|
||◆ Difference treated as profit /loss作为利润/损失的差额|
||◆ Assume credit risk remainsthe same beforeand after transfer假设信贷风险在转|
||移之前和之后都是一样的|

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||
|-|
|AASB13alsoestablishes ahierarchyof inputs todetermineFair Value. Theseinputs,set out in thetablebelowrange from|
|Level1 toLevel3. Wenote that underthisframework:|
|◆ Fairvalueisbasedonlowest level of inputsused|
|◆ Disclosures extendedto non-financialassetsand liabilitiesatfair value|

||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|
|Level||Description||Examples|
|Level1|Quoted pricein active market||◆ Marketpricesforidenticalassets||
||(unadjusted,fullyobservable)||◆ Acompany’s marketcapitalisation||
|Level2|Directlyor indirectlyobservable, butnot||◆ Interestrates||
||prices||◆ Creditspreads||
||||◆ Price per square metre||
||||◆ Valuation multiples||
|Level3|Unobservable inputs||◆ Forecastcashflows||
||||◆ Replacementcostestimates||

||
|-|
|Valuation forTaxation|
|The AustralianTaxOffice’s (“ATO”) publication ‘Market ValuationGuide for TaxPurposes’ includesatypical definitionofMarket|
|Valueusedbybusinessvaluersas:|

||
|-|
|“thepricethat wouldbenegotiated inanopen andunrestrictedmarketbetweena knowledgeable, willingbut notanxious buyer|
|anda knowledgeable, willingbutnotanxious seller acting at arm’s-length.”|

||
|-|
|This definitionhasbeenderivedfrom anumber of commonlawcaseswhichdiscussedtheordinarymeaningof|
|'marketvalue'andintroduced the concepts of:|
|◆ Willing but not|

anxiouspurchaser
◆ Hypothetical market(regardlessofintentionto
sell)
◆ Parties
beingfullyinformed
◆ Awareness of currentmarket
conditions
SpecialValue
特别价值
Special valueisreferredto astheamount a specificpurchaser iswillingto payinexcessofmarketvalue. Such specific purchasers maybewillingtopayapremiumover marketvalueasaresult ofpotentialeconomiesof scale, reduction in competition or other synergies theymayenjoyarisingfromtheacquisition of theasset. Specialvalue isdefinedbythe International Valuation Standards Councilas:
特殊价值指的是特定购买者愿意支付超过市场价值的金额。由于潜在的规模经济、竞争减少或由于资产兼并而产生的其他协同效应，这些特定的购买者可能愿意支付高于公平市价的溢价。国际估值标准委员会对特别价值的定义如下。
"An amount thatreflectsparticularattributesofanassetthat are onlyofvalueto a specialpurchaser."
“反映仅对特殊购买者具有价值的资产的特定特定的金额。”
The AustralianTaxOffice‘Market Valuation GuideforTaxPurposes’providesadditional guidancefor the concept ofSpecial Value:
澳大利亚税务办公室“税务市场估价指南”为特别价值的概念给出了补充：
"Itis sometimesargued that anasset has special valueto a particular buyer. Usually thisisnotrelevant inderivinga marketvalue. Wherethere is clear evidence that the special value is knownoravailabletothewidermarket, this would bereflected inan objective valuation of theasset."
“人们有时候还在争辩：资产对特定购买者具有特殊价值。通常这与衍生出的市场价值无关。如果有明确的证据表明特
殊价值是已知的，或者可以在更广泛的市场上使用，那么在资产的客观估值上就能反映出特殊价值。”
"However,evenwherethe seller knowsthat you valuetheitemina specialway,thisusuallyonly meansthat theitem will
sell(andthe market valuewillbe)at thehigher end of theusual market valuerange. On theother hand, iftwoor more
hypotheticalpurchaserswere assumedtoexist, bothhavinga special usefor the item, the special value maybe reflected in
themarketvalue."
“然而，即使卖方知道你以一种特殊的方式对该物品估值，这在通常也只是意味着该物品将以通常市场价值区间中的(市
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场价值)较高价格出售。另一方面，假设存在两个或两个以上的购买者，两者把该物品都用于特殊用途，其特殊价值可以反映在市场价值中。”
Special valuehasnot beenconsideredinthisvaluation.在这一估值中没有考虑到特殊价值。
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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix3:LevelsofValue
附件 3价值水平
Background背景
When valuinga companythere arevarious conceptuallevelsofvaluethat canbe determineddepending onthe method selected andtheassumptions applied. These levelsarehighlighted inthediagram below. It is important tobe awareofthe levelofvaluedeterminedbyanyvaluation techniqueandto ensurethatit is consistentwiththe subject of thevaluation.当对一个公司评估时，根据所选方法和应用的假设，可以确定不同的价值水平概念。下图重点显示了这些水平。意识到任何估值技术所决定的价值水平，并确保它与估值目标是一致的，这很重要的。
SpecialValue特殊价值 DCF(with synergies)
DFC(具有协同效应)
Synergybenefits协同效益
ControlValue对照价值 DCF;CFME (takeovermultiples);NetAssets
DCF;CFME（收购倍数；净资产）
Minority discount Control premium
少数股权贴现 对照溢价
LiquidMinorityValue流动 CFME(tradingmultiples)CFME（交易倍数）性少数股权价值
Discountforlackofmarketability缺
乏市场流通性的贴现
IlliquidMinorityvalue动性 DCF(usingprojecteddividends)
少数股权价值
DCF（使用预期股息）
The keydifferences betweentheselevels of valueare the controlpremium andthediscountfor lackof marketability. The opposite of a control premiumisa minoritydiscount (also known asadiscountfor lackof control).
这些价值水平之间的关键区别在于控制权溢价以及缺乏市场性的折扣。控制溢价权的对立面是少数折扣(也被称为缺乏控制折扣)。
Each of theselevels of valueandthe valuationtechniquesforderivingthemarediscussed below. It isalsopossibleto
determine thevalue at anyofthelevels bystartingatadifferent level of value andthenapplying therelevant discounts
and/orpremiumstoobtainthe requiredlevelof value. For example, an illiquid minorityvalue could bedeterminedby using adiscounted cash flowmethodto determinea control valueandthen deductinganappropriate minoritydiscountand
adiscountfor lack of marketability.
下面将讨论每个价值水平以及产生这些价值水平的评估技术。还可以从不同的值开始，再使用相关的折扣和/或一家来获得所需的价值水平，从而确定任何的价值水平。比如，通过使用贴现现金流方法确定一个对照值，然后扣除适当的少数股权贴现折和因缺乏市场性的贴现，来确定非流动性的少数股权的价值。
SpecialValue特别价值
The highest levelof value isreferredtoas special value. Thisis thevalueof a companytoaparticular purchaser, where thatpurchaser is abletoenjoybenefitsof owning the companythat arenotavailabletootherpotentialowners. Special value isnot typicallyobservedasabuyerwouldnot benefit its own shareholdersifit paidthefull amount of specialvalue in
atransaction. However,in contested takeover situations transactionsoften takeplace at a pricethatishigherthanthe stand- alone controlvalue, meaning thevalueofsome synergiesispaid bythebiddertothetarget's shareholders. The definitions of Fair Market Value specificallyexcludes anyspecialvalue.
最高水平的价值被称为特殊价值。特殊价值是一个公司给特定购买者的价值，在该价值下，购买者可以享受其它潜在所有者无法使用的公司利益。当买方在一笔交易中支付了全部的特殊价值后，买方不是自己的股东受益，这样通常不会观察到特殊价值。然而，在有争议的收购中，交易通常以高于独立控制价值的价格进行，这意味投标者向目标股东支付了一些协
同效应的价值。公平市场价值的定义不包括任何特殊价值。
Special value canbeestimatedusing adiscounted cashflowanalysis. Thisanalysiswouldinclude theexpected synergy
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benefits in the forecast cash flows.
特殊价值可通过使用贴现现金流分析来估算。该分析将包括预期现金流中的预期协同效益。
ControlValue对照值
The next level of valueis the stand-alone controlvalue. Thisrepresentsthe valueofthewholeofanentity,
withoutconsidering anypotential synergybenefits. Thebenefits of controllingan enterprisearediscussed further in
ControlPremiums. A control value canbedetermined usingoneof the followingapproaches:
下价值的一个水平是独立控制值。这代表了整个实体的价值，没有考虑任何潜在的协同效益。在控制保费方面，还讨论了控制企业的好处。控制值可以使用下属的一个方法确定:
◆ Discounted cashflow(using free cashflowtothebusiness ortoequity)贴现现金流量(将自由现金流应用到业务或股权中)◆ Capitalisation ofearnings, usingmultiplesforcomparabletransactions资本收益，利用进行可比交易的市盈率◆ Capitalisation of earnings,using multiplesderived fromfirstprinciples(analogousto adiscounted cashflow)资本收益，使用由第一条而来的市盈率(类似于贴现现金流)的资本收益
◆ Anet assetbasedapproach基于净资产的方法
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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Itispossible that transactionsinvolving comparableentities include someelementof payment forsynergies. Thususing multiples determinedbythis method mayprovideavaluation that ishigherthana stand-alone controlvalue. It is therefore necessaryto consider the natureof the buyer and thedetailsofthetransaction beforeaccepting a comparable transaction asevidence of a controlvalue.
涉及可比交易的实体很可能包含一些协同效应的因素。因此，使用该方法所确定的倍数可以提供高于独立控制值的估值。
Liquid MinorityValue流动的少数股权价值
This isthe mostfrequentlyobservedlevel of valueas it is consistentwith market trading onpublicexchanges. It canbe determined directlybytheapplication of the capitalisationof maintainable earnings, where the multiple usedis determined basedon marketpricesof comparable companies.
这是最常见的价值水平，因为就在公开交易而言，它与市场交易是一致的。它可由可维护性收益的资本化直接决定，其中使用的倍数是根据可比公司的市价决定的。
IlliquidMinorityValue非流动的少数股权价值
This representsa minorityholdingin aprivate company. Sucha stake can bedifficult to sellandoften offerslittleability to influencetheoperations of thebusiness. Thislevel of valueis mostlycommonlyestimated byreferenceto ahigher level of valueand theapplicationofdiscounts. However,it canbe estimateddirectlyeitherbyconsidering comparable transactions involving similar assets or theapplication of adiscounted cash flowanalysisbased on expected cashflows to the
minorityowner. In some casesthe shareholders'agreementcanrestrict the transfer and sale of shares tothird parties whichincreases theapplicablediscount.
这代表了一家私人公司的少数股权。这样的股份很难出售，而且通常对业务的影响乏力。通常通过参考较高的价值水平以及所用的折扣来估计这种价值水平。但是，它也可通过考虑到类似交易所涉及的类似资产，或基于少数股东预期现金流的贴现现金流分析来直接估算。在某些情况下，股东协议可限制将股份转让或出售给第三方，因为这会增加了可用的折扣。
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Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix4:Valuation Approaches
附件 4估值方法
Introduction介绍
In preparingthisreport we have considered severalvaluationapproaches and methods. These approachesand methods are consistentwith:
在编写本报告时，我们考虑了几种评估方法。这些方法与以下一致:
◆ Marketpractice
市价
◆ The methodsrecommendedbythe AustralianSecurities andInvestmentsCommission inRegulatory Guide111 contentofexpertreports
澳大利亚证券和投资委员会在监管指南111的专家报告中所建议的方法
◆ The International Valuation Standards
国际评估准则
◆ The InternationalGlossaryof Business ValuationTerms
国际商业估价术语表
Avaluationapproachis ageneralwayof determiningan estimateof valueofabusiness, business ownershipinterest,securityor intangibleasset. Withineach valuationapproachthere areanumberof specificvaluation methods, whichare specific waysto determinean estimateofvalue.
估值方法是确定企业价值、企业所有者权益、证券或无形资产的一般估值方法。在每种估值方法中，都有一些具体的估值方法，这些方法是确定估值的具体方法。
There arethreegeneralvaluationapproachesasfollows:评估方法主要有3个，如下：
Income Approach收入方法
Provides anindicationofvaluebyconvertingfuture cashflowstoa single capitalvalue. Examplesof anincome approach are:通过将未来的现金流转换为单一的资本值，从而提供的价值指示。收入方法的示例如下:
◆ The discounted cash flowmethod
现金流量贴现法
◆ The capitalisationofearnings method(using a multiplederived fromfirst principles)
收益法的资本化(使用来自第一个原则的倍数)
MarketApproach市场方法
Provides anindicationofvaluebycomparing the subject assetwithidenticalor similarassetsfor which priceinformation is available. The main examplesof the marketapproachare:
通过将资产与能使价格信息可用给的相同或类似资产进行比较，从而提供的价值指示。
◆ The guidelinepubliccompanymethod指导上市公司的方法
◆ The merger andacquisitionmethod并购方法
◆ Analysis ofrecenttrading近期交易分析
◆ Industryrules ofthumb行业经验法则
The first two methodsare anapplication of the capitalisationofearnings method.
前两种方法是收益法资本化的一个应用。
Asset/CostApproach资产/成本方法
Provides anindicationof value usingtheeconomicprinciple that abuyer will payno moreforanasset thanthe cost to obtain anassetof equal utility, whetherbypurchase or construction.
在获得（无论是购买还是建设）同等效用的资产时，买方将不再为资产支付超出成本的费用，基于这一经济原理所提供的一个价值指导。
Discounted Cash FlowMethod
现金流贴现
Description
描述
Ofthevarious methodsnoted above, the discounted cash flowmethodhas the strongesttheoretical standing. It is also widelyusedinpractice bycorporateacquirersand companyanalysts.The discounted cashflowmethod estimatesthe value of
abusiness bydiscountingexpectedfuture cashflowsto apresent valueusing anappropriatediscount rate. A discounted
cash flowvaluationrequires:
在上面提到的各种方法中，理论上现金流贴现法的地位最高。该方法也被企业收购和公司分析师广泛应用于实践中。贴现
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现金流法，通过将预期的未来现金流贴现给采用了合适贴现率的当前价值，从而估算企业价值。贴现现金流估值要求:◆ Aforecastof expected future cashflows预期未来现金流的预
测
◆ Anappropriatediscountrate恰当的贴现率
◆ Anestimateofterminalvalue终值的估计
Itisnecessaryto project cashflowsovera suitableperiod of time(generallyregarded asbeingatleast fiveyears) to arrive at thenetcashflowin eachperiod. For afinite lifeproject orasset thiswouldneed tobedone for thelife of the project. This canbea difficult exerciserequiring a significant numberof assumptions suchasrevenue growth, future margins,capital expenditurerequirements,working capital movements andtaxation.
很有必要计划一段适当的时间内(一般认为是至少5年)的现金流，以实现净现金流。对于有限生命周期的项目或资产，这需要在项目的生命周期内完成。这可能是一项苦难的活动，需要大量的假设，比如收入增长、未来利润率、资本支出要求、营运资本的流动以及税收。
The discount rateused representstherisk of achievingthe projectedfuture cash flowsandthe timevalueofmoney. The projected future cash flowsarethen valuedin current dayterms usingthe discount rate selected.
贴现率常用来表示实现预期未来现金流和货币时间价值的风险。然后基于当天的值，用所选的贴现率计算未来现金流。
Aterminalvaluereflects thevalueofcashflowsthatwillarisebeyond theexplicit forecastperiod. This is commonly estimated usingeithera constantgrowthassumptionora multiple of earnings(as describedundercapitalisationof future maintainable earningsbelow). Thisterminalvalue isthendiscounted to current daytermsandadded tothenet presentvalue of the forecast cash flowstoprovide anestimate for theoverall valueofthebusiness.
终值反映了超出明确预测周期的现金流量的价值。终值通常是用一个持续增长假设或多倍收益来估值的(正如下文未来可维护性收益所描述的那样)。然后将此终值贴现到当天值，并添加给预测现金流的净现值，从评估业务的总体值。
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The discounted cash flowmethodis often sensitiveto anumber ofkeyassumptions suchasrevenue growth, future
margins,capitalinvestment,terminalgrowth andthe discount rate. Alloftheseassumptions canbe highlysubjective
sometimes leadingtoa valuation conclusionpresented asarange that istoo widetobeuseful.
贴现现金流法通常对一些关键假设十分敏感，比如：收入增长，未来利润率，资本投资，终端增长和贴现率。所有这些假设都极可能高度主观，有时会导致估价结论范围太广泛为无法使用。
Use of thediscounted cashflowmethod贴现现金流方法的应用
Adiscounted cashflowapproach isusuallypreferredwhenvaluing:
贴现现金流方法通常是优先考虑的，当时评估以下:
◆ Earlystage companiesor projects
创业公司或早期项目；
◆ Limited lifeassets suchas a mineor toll concession
有限生命周期的项目，如矿山或过租地
◆ Companies where significantgrowthisexpected infuture cashflows
预测未来现金流显著增长的公司
◆ Projects withvolatile earnings
收益波动的项目
Itmayalsobe preferredif othermethodsarenotsuitable, for example if thereis alackofreliableevidenceto support a capitalisation of future maintainableearnings approach. However, itmaynotbeappropriate if:
当其它方法不适用的时候，通常也可选择该方法，比如在缺乏可靠的证据来支持未来可维护性收益资本化的方法时，就可使用贴现现金流方法。
◆ Reliable forecastsof cash flowarenotavailable and cannotbedetermined
现金流的可靠预测是没用的、无法确定的；
◆ There isaninadequatereturn oninvestment, inwhich case ahigher value maybe realisedbyliquidatingtheassets than through continuing thebusiness
存在投资回报不足的情况；这种情况下，清算资产而非继续经营的方式实现更高的价值。
Adiscounted cashflowapproachisnotrecommendedwhenassetsare expectedtoearn belowthe costof capital. Also,when valuinga minorityinterestina company, care needstobetaken if adiscounted cash flowbasedonearnings for the whole businessis prepared, asthe holder of a minorityinterest would not haveaccess to, orcontrolof, those cashflows.
当资产预期收益低于资本成本时，不建议采用贴现现金流方法。此外当评估一家公司的少数股权时，如果基于整个业务收益的贴现现金流已经到位，但少数权益持有者无法获得或控制这些现金流，则需要特别谨慎。
Capitalisation ofEarningsMethod收益资本化法
Description描述
The capitalisationofearnings methodis a commonlyused valuation methodologythat involvesdetermining afuture
maintainable earningsfigure for abusiness and multiplyingthatfigurebyanappropriate capitalisation multiple. This
methodologyisgenerallyconsidered a short formof adiscounted cash flow, wherea single representativeearnings figure is capitalised,rather thana streamofindividual cashflows beingdiscounted. The capitalisation of earnings
methodologyinvolves the determinationof:
收益资本化法是一种常用的估值方法，包括确定企业未来可维护性盈利的数据，并将该数字乘以一个适当的资本化倍数。
这种方法常被认为是贴现现金流的一种短期形式，在这种情况下，单一的有代表性的盈利数据是资本化的，而不是一股被贴现的个人现金流。收益方法的资本化包括确定:
◆ Aleveloffuture maintainableearnings
未来可维持收入的水平
◆ An appropriate capitalisation rateormultiple
一个恰当的资本额或倍数
Future maintainableearnings未来可维护的收益
Anyof thefollowing measuresof earnings can beused:
下述任何一项收入指标都可以被使用:
Revenue - mostlyusedforcompaniesthat donot make apositiveEBITDA orasa cross-checkofavaluation conclusion derived usinganothermethod.
收益-主要用于不构成积极EBITDA的公司，或是使用了另一种方法估从而的到估值结论的反复核对的公司。
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
EBITDA- mostappropriatewheredepreciation distortsearnings, forexampleina companythathasa
significantlevelofdepreciating assets but little ongoing capitalexpenditure requirement.
EBITDA–当贬值（折旧）扭曲收益时最合适的方法，比如对于一个具有显著折旧资产、却无持续资本支出需求的公司。
EBITA- in most casesEBITAwillbe more reliablethanEBITDAasit takes account ofthe capitalintensityof the business. EBITA-EBITA在大多数情况下要比EBITDA更可靠，因为它考虑了企业的资本密集度。
EBIT- whilst commonlyusedinpractice,multiplesof EBITA are usuallymorereliable astheyremovethe impact ofamortisation whichis anon-cash accountingentrythat doesnotreflect a needforfuture capital investment (unlike depreciation).
EBIT–EBITA倍数方法虽然实践中常常使用，但它通常更可靠，因为它没有分歧偿还的影响，而分歧偿还是一个非现金的会计入口，不反映未来资本投资的需求(不像折旧)。
NPAT- relevant in valuingbusinesseswhereinterestisa majorpart of theoverall earningsof thegroup (e.g. financial services businesses suchasbanks).
NPAT-在利益是集团整体盈利的主要部分(如银行等金融服务业务)的价值方面的相关。
Multiples of EBITDA, EBITAandEBITare commonlyusedtovalue wholebusinessesfor acquisition purposeswhere gearing isin the control of theacquirer. In contrast, NPAT(or P/E) multiples areoftenused for valuing minorityinterests in a companyas theinvestor hasno controlover thelevel of debt.
EBITDA、EBITA和EBIT的倍数通常被用来进行收购为目的的整个企业评估，即杠杆在收购方的控制下。相比之下，NPAT(或P /E)倍数通常被用来评估公司的少数股权，因为投资者对债务水平是无法控制的。
Anormalisedlevelof maintainable earningsneeds tobe determinedfor the selected earnings measure.Thisexcludes the impact of anygainsor lossesthatarenot expected torecur andallows for thefull year impact of anychanges(such as acquisitionsor disposals) made part waythrougha givenfinancialyear.
为了确定所选的收益指标，则需要确定可维护性收益的正常水平。这排除了未预料的、再次发生的任何收益或损失带来的影响，并考虑到在给定财年还未结束时，存在任何对全年产生影响的变化(如收购或资产处置)。
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Selectedmultiple选择的倍数
The multiple selected toapplyto maintainable earningsreflects expectationsaboutfuturegrowth,riskand thetimevalue ofmoneyallwrappedupin a singlenumber. Multiples can bederivedfromthree main sources.
所选的、适用于可维护性收益的倍数，反映了对未来增长、风险和金钱的时间价值的预期。倍数源自于三个主要来源。
◆ Using theguideline public companymethod,market multiplesare derivedfromthe
tradingpricesofstocksofcompanies that areengagedin the sameor similar lines of businessandthat are
activelytradedona freeandopen market,suchas the ASX
采用指导上市公司的方法，市场倍数来源于从事相同或类似业务的公司股票的交易价格，并在自由开放的市场上交易，比如ASX。
◆ The merger and acquisition methodis a methodwherebymultiplesare derivedfromtransactions of significant interests incompaniesengagedin the sameor similarlines of business.In Australiathisis oftenreferredtoas the comparable transactionmethodology
合并和收购方法是指通过从事相同或类似业务的公司的重大利益交易中衍生出的倍数而得到的一种方法。在澳大利亚，这通常指的是类似的交易方法。
◆ Itisalso possibletobuild a multiplefrom firstprinciplesbased onanappropriate discount rateand growthexpectations根据适当的贴现率和增长预期，还能从第一原则中生成一个倍数。
Itisimportanttouse the same earningsperiods(historical,current orforecast) forcalculating comparable multiples, as the periodusedfordeterminingfuture maintainable earnings. Forexample, a multiple basedonhistorical
earningsofcomparable companies should beappliedto historicalearningsofthe subject ofthevaluationand
nottoforecastearnings.
对于计算具有可比性的倍数来说，使用相同的收益周期(历史、当前或预测)是很重要的，因为这些周期是用来确定未来可维护性收益的。例如，一个基于可比公司的历史收益的倍数，应被应用于估值主体的历史收益，而不是用来预测收益。
Use of the capitalisationofearningsmethod收益资本化方法的使用
The capitalisationof earnings methodiswidelyusedinpractice. It is particularlyappropriateforvaluing companieswitha relativelystablehistorical earningspatternwhich isexpectedto continue. The methodisless appropriatefor valuing companies or assets if:
收益资本化方法在实践中应用广泛。尤为适用于估值相对稳定、具有相对稳定的历史收益模式的企业，同时预计这种模式还将持续下去。这种方法在评估公司或资产时不太合适，若：
◆ There areno(or veryfew) suitablelisted companyor transactionbenchmarksfor comparison
不存在(或很少)合适的上市公司或交易基准用于比较
◆ The asset hasa limitedlife
资产的寿命有限
◆ Future earningsor cash flowsareexpectedto bevolatile
预计未来收益或现金流会存在波动
◆ There arenegativeearnings or theearningsofabusinessare insufficient to justifya valueexceedingtheunderlying netassets
存在负面收益，或企业的收益不足以证明超过潜在净资产的价值。
◆ Working capitalrequirements arenot expected toremain stable
期望经营资本要求不是一成不变的
AssetorCostApproach资产或成本方法
The asset approachto valueisbased ontheassumptionthatthe current value of allassets (tangibleandintangible) less the current value of theliabilities shouldequate tothe currentvalueoftheentity. Specificallyan asset approachis defined asageneral wayof determininga valueindicationofabusiness, businessownership interest,or securityusing one or more methodsbased onthevalueoftheassetsnet ofliabilities. Whereasa cost approachisdefined asageneral wayof determininga valueindicationofanindividualassetbyquantifyingthe amount of moneyrequiredtoreplacethe future service capabilityofthat asset.
用于估值的资产方法是基于一种假设:即所有（有形的和无形）资产的现值减去负债现值应等于实体的现值。具体地来说，资产方法被定义为：通过使用基于资产净值负债的一种或多种方法，确定业务、业务所有权或安全性价值指标的一种普通方法。而成本方法被定义为：一种确定单个资产的价值指标的一般方法，是通过量化替换该资产未来服务功能所需的货币
数量来实现的。
Description描述
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
The asset basedvaluation methodsestimatethe valueof a companybasedon therealisablevalue of itsnetassets, less its liabilities. There areanumberof asset based methodsincluding:
基于资产的估值方法，是基于某个公司净资产的可变现价值来对该公司估值的，并非基于其负债。有许多基于资产的方估值法，包括:
◆ Orderlyrealization有序实现
◆ Forcedliquidation被迫清算
◆ Netassetsonagoingconcernbasis持续经营基础上的资产净值
◆ Replacementcost重置成本
◆ Reproductioncost再生产成本
The orderlyrealisation of assets methodestimatesFairMarket Value bydeterminingthe amount thatwouldbedistributed to shareholders, afterpayment ofallliabilities includingrealisation costsand taxation charges that arise,assumingthe
companyiswoundupin anorderlymanner. Theforcedliquidation methodis similar totheorderlyrealisationof assets method except theliquidation methodassumesthe assetsare sold ina shortertimeframe. Since winduporliquidationofthe
companymaynot be contemplated, these methodsintheirstrictest form maynotnecessarilybe appropriate. Thenetassets onagoing concernbasis method estimatestheFairMarket Valuesofthenet assetsofa companybutdoesnottake
accountofrealisation costs.
假设某个公司以有序的方式结束，有序实现的资产评估方法是在支付了所有的债务（包括实现成本以及产生的税费）之后，通过确定可能分配给股东的金额，来估计公平市值。强制清算方法与资产法的有序变现相似，但是清算方法是假设资产在较短的时间内出售的。由于公司破产或清算是不可预期的，因此在各自最严格的形式下，这些方法都可能不一定合适。持续经营基础之上的资产净值估计方法，是对某个公司的净资产的公平市值进行估算，但不考虑实现成本。
The asset / costapproachisgenerallyusedwhenthevalueofthebusiness’assetsexceeds thepresentvalueofthe cash flows expectedtobe derivedfromthe ongoingbusinessoperations,or thenature of thebusinessis toholdorinvest in assets.
Itisimportant to notethat the asset approach maystillbe therelevant approach evenifanasset is makinga profit.If anassetis making lessthanan economicrateofreturnandthere isnorealistic prospect of itmakingan economic returnin theforeseeable future, an asset/ costapproachwill bethe most appropriate method.
当业务资产的价值超过来自持续业务经营的现金流的现值，或者业务性质是持有该资产或对其投资时，一般会使用资产/成本方法。值得注意的是，即使资产正在盈利，资产方法仍可能是相关的方法。如果一项资产的回报率低于经济回报率，并且在可预见的未来，该资产没有实现经济回报的现实前景，那么资产/成本方法将是最合适的方法。
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Useof asset basedmethods基于资产的方法的应用
An asset-basedapproachis a suitablevaluation methodwhen:
基于资产的方法是一种合适的估值方法，当:
◆ An enterpriseisloss makingandis not expectedto becomeprofitableintheforeseeablefuture企业市场正在缩小，并且预期未来不会收益
◆ Assets areemployed profitablybutearnlessthan the costofcapital资产的使用是有利可图的，但比资本成本赚取的少◆ Asignificant portion of the company's assetsare composed of liquidassets or other investments (suchas
marketable securities and realestateinvestments)公司资产的很大一部分是由流动资产或其他投资(如有价证券和房地产投资)组成的
◆ Itisrelativelyeasyto enter theindustry(e.g. small machine shopsandretailestablishments)进入该行业相对比较容易(如小型机械商店和零售公司)
Assetbased methods arenotappropriateif:
基于资产的方法不适用于以下，若:
◆ The ownershipinterest being valuedisnota controllinginterest,hasnoabilityto causethe saleofthecompany’s assets andthe major holders arenot planningto sellthecompany’sassets
被评估的所有权益不是可控制权益，无法造成公司资产的出售，同时主要股东不打算出售公司的资产。
◆ Abusinesshas(orisexpectedto have) anadequate returnon capital,suchthat the valueof its futureincome stream exceeds thevalue ofitsassets企业(或预计将拥有)有充足的资本回报，从而使得其未来收入流的价值超过其资产价值 AnalysisofRecentTrading近期交易分析
The most recent sharetrading historyprovidesevidenceoftheFair Market Value of the sharesin a companywherethey are publiclytradedinan informedandliquid market.There shouldalsobe some similaritybetweenthe size of theparcel
ofsharesbeingvaluedandthose beingtraded. Whereacompany’s sharesarepubliclytraded thenan analysisof recenttrading prices should be considered, atleast asa cross-checktoothervaluation methods.
最新的股票交易为公司这部分股票的公允市值提供了证明，而这部分股票是在信息灵通的市场上公开交易的。正被估值的股票的规模与这些交易的股票规模之间应该存有某种相似性。若一家公司的股票被公开交易，那么就应该考虑分析近期的交易价格，至少将这种分析和其它估值方法一起进行交叉核对。
IndustrySpecific RulesofThumb行业特有经验法则
Industryspecificrules of thumbare usedin certain industries. These methodstypicallyinvolve a multipleofanoperating figure suchas eyeballsfor internetbusinesses, numbersofbedsfor hotels etc. These methodsaretypicallyfairlycrude and
thereforeusuallyonlyappropriateasa cross-checktoa valuationdeterminedusing analternative method.
行业特有经验法则被用于某些特定行业。这些方法通常涉及某个经营数值的倍数，如互联网企业的访客、酒店的床位数量等。这些方法通常相当粗糙，因此通常只适于作为另一种估值方法的替代方法，进行交叉检查。
Selecting an Appropriate Valuation Approach andMethod选择合适的估值方法和方法
The choiceof anappropriate valuationapproachand methodologyis subjective, anddepends on severalfactors suchas whethera methodologyisprescribed,thecompany’shistoricaland projectedfinancial performance, the stageofmaturity,the natureofthecompany’s operationsand theavailabilityofinformation. The selection of an appropriatevaluation method shouldbeguided bytheactual practicesadoptedbypotential acquirersof the companyinvolvedandthe informationavailable.选择合适的估值方法和方法是主观的，取决于许多因素，例如是否存在规定的方法，公司的历史和预期的财务业绩，成熟度的阶段、公司的业务性质以及信息的可用性。在选择适当的估值方法是，应基于公司潜在收购者所采取的实际操作和所提供的信息。
The followingflowchart provides guidanceon selecting theappropriate valuation method:
在选择合适的估值方法时，下面的流程图提供一些指导:
Y
Y
N
DraftforDiscussionPurposes草案用于讨论之目的
Have there been recenttransaction in theentity's shares /units?实体的股票/单位最近有交易吗?
Analysis of sharetrading股票交易分析
Does it make anadequate returnoncapital?它对资本是否有足够的回报？
Is it a finite life asset, orare earningshighlyvariable?它是一个有限生命资产？还是高收益变量?
Is it expected to make anadequate return in thenearfuture?在不久的将来，它会有足够的回报吗?
Discounted cashflow贴现现金流量
Are theresuitablecomparablebenchmarks?是否有合适的可比基准?
Discounted cashflow贴现现金流量
Netassets净资产
Capitalisation of earningsor discounted cashflow收益或贴现现金流的资本化
Discounted cashflow贴现现金流量
Source:Leadenhallanalysis
来源：Leadenhall分析
Selecting anappropriate valuation methodologydependsonthe natureofabusinessand itsprofitability.
Generally,Leadenhall preferstousea discounted cashflowmethod asit allowseach of the keyvaluation
driverstobeanalysed independentlyand considerationgiven astohowtheyinteract. Whatever methodis usedit is important touse a cross check to theextentpossible.
合适的估值方法的选择，取决于企业的性质和盈利能力。通常，Leadenhall倾向于使用贴现现金流的方法，因为该方法允许对每个关键估值驱动因素进行独立分析，并考虑它们之间的相互作用。无论采用何种方法，在可能的范围最好使用反复检查，这点很重要。
DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix5:EthanolPlantProjections
附件5：乙醇工厂的预测
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000|FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Capacityusage产能使用 %||0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|50%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|
|Production volume产量 ML||-|-|-|-|-|30|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|
|Ethanolprice (inc. inflation) 乙醇价格|1.1520|1.1750|1.1985|1.2225|1.2470|1.2719|1.2973|1.3233|1.3498|1.3767|1.4043|1.4324|1.4610|1.4902|1.5200|1.5504|1.5814|1.6131|1.6453|1.6782|1.7118|1.7460|1.7810|1.8166|1.8529|1.8900|1.9278|
|（含通胀）$/L||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|GST||(0.1068)|(0.1090)|(0.1111)|(0.1134)|(0.1156)|(0.1179)|(0.1203)|(0.1227)|(0.1252)|(0.1277)|(0.1302)|(0.1328)|(0.1355)|(0.1382)|(0.1409)|(0.1438)|(0.1466)|(0.1496)|(0.1526)|(0.1556)|(0.1587)|(0.1619)|(0.1651)|(0.1684)|(0.1718)|(0.1753)|
|Ethanolexcise乙醇消费税||(0.0264)|(0.0538)|(0.0823)|(0.1119)|(0.1427)|(0.1456)|(0.1485)|(0.1514)|(0.1545)|(0.1576)|(0.1607)|(0.1639)|(0.1672)|(0.1706)|(0.1740)|(0.1774)|(0.1810)|(0.1846)|(0.1883)|(0.1921)|(0.1959)|(0.1998)|(0.2038)|(0.2079)|(0.2121)|(0.2163)|
|Adjustedprice调整后价格||1.0419|1.0358|1.0291|1.0217|1.0136|1.0338|1.0545|1.0756|1.0971|1.1191|1.1414|1.1643|1.1875|1.2113|1.2355|1.2602|1.2854|1.3111|1.3374|1.3641|1.3914|1.4192|1.4476|1.4766|1.5061|1.5362|
|Ethanolrevenue乙醇带来的收益||-|-|-|-|-|31,015|63,271|64,536|65,827|67,143|68,486|69,856|71,253|72,678|74,132|75,614|77,126|78,669|80,242|81,847|83,484|85,154|86,857|88,594|90,366|92,173|
|Costofsales 销售成本||-|-|-|-|-|(6,033)|(12,307)|(12,553)|(12,805)|(13,061)|(13,322)|(13,588)|(13,860)|(14,137)|(14,420)|(14,708)|(15,003)|(15,303)|(15,609)|(15,921)|(16,239)|(16,564)|(16,895)|(17,233)|(17,578)|(17,929)|
|Gross profit 毛利||-|-|-|-|-|24,982|50,963|51,982|53,022|54,083|55,164|56,267|57,393|58,541|59,711|60,906|62,124|63,366|64,634|65,926|67,245|68,590|69,962|71,361|72,788|74,244|
|Grossmargin % 毛利率||0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|80.5%|
|Operating expenses经营成本(@$0.34||-|-|-|-|-|(11,487)|(23,433)|(23,902)|(24,380)|(24,867)|(25,365)|(25,872)|(26,390)|(26,917)|(27,456)|(28,005)|(28,565)|(29,136)|(29,719)|(30,313)|(30,920)|(31,538)|(32,169)|(32,812)|(33,468)|(34,138)|
|/L)||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Depreciation折旧||-|-|-|-|-|(7,500)|(7,542)|(7,585)|(7,629)|(7,674)|(7,720)|(7,766)|(7,814)|(7,862)|(7,912)|(7,962)|(8,014)|(8,066)|(8,120)|(8,467)|(8,951)|(9,460)|(9,996)|(10,559)|(11,152)|(4,276)|
|Totaloverheads总营业费||-|-|-|-|-|(18,987)|(30,975)|(31,487)|(32,009)|(32,542)|(33,085)|(33,639)|(34,204)|(34,780)|(35,368)|(35,967)|(36,579)|(37,203)|(37,839)|(38,781)|(39,871)|(40,998)|(42,164)|(43,371)|(44,621)|(38,414)|
|EBIT||-|-|-|-|-|5,995|19,988|20,495|21,013|21,541|22,080|22,629|23,189|23,761|24,344|24,938|25,545|26,164|26,795|27,145|27,374|27,592|27,797|27,989|28,167|35,830|
|EBITmargin EBIT利润||0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|19.3%|31.6%|31.8%|31.9%|32.1%|32.2%|32.4%|32.5%|32.7%|32.8%|33.0%|33.1%|33.3%|33.4%|33.2%|32.8%|32.4%|32.0%|31.6%|31.2%|38.9%|
|Interestexpense利息支出||-|-|-|(3,150)|(6,300)|(6,300)|(6,146)|(5,982)|(5,806)|(5,618)|(5,416)|(5,201)|(4,970)|(4,723)|(4,459)|(4,177)|(3,874)|(3,551)|(3,205)|(2,835)|(2,438)|(2,014)|(1,561)|(1,075)|(556)|-|
|Profitbefore tax税前利润||-|-|-|(3,150)|(6,300)|(305)|13,841|14,513|15,207|15,923|16,663|17,428|18,219|19,038|19,885|20,762|21,671|22,613|23,590|24,311|24,936|25,577|26,237|26,914|27,611|35,830|
|Notionaltax概念税收||-|-|-|-|-|-|(1,226)|(4,354)|(4,562)|(4,777)|(4,999)|(5,228)|(5,466)|(5,711)|(5,965)|(6,229)|(6,501)|(6,784)|(7,077)|(7,293)|(7,481)|(7,673)|(7,871)|(8,074)|(8,283)|(10,749)|
|Netprofitafter tax税后净利润||-|-|-|(3,150)|(6,300)|(305)|12,615|10,159|10,645|11,146|11,664|12,200|12,753|13,326|13,919|14,533|15,169|15,829|16,513|17,018|17,455|17,904|18,366|18,840|19,328|25,081|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000 FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Add:|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|附加|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||-|-|-|3,150|6,300|6,300|6,146|5,982|5,806|5,618|5,416|5,201|4,970|4,723|4,459|4,177|3,874|3,551|3,205|2,835|2,438|2,014|1,561|1,075|556|-|
|Interestexpense利息支出|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||-|-|-|-|-|5,995|18,762|16,141|16,451|16,764|17,081|17,400|17,724|18,050|18,378|18,710|19,044|19,380|19,718|19,852|19,893|19,919|19,926|19,915|19,884|25,081|
|Netoperatingprofitafter tax税后净营业利润|-|-|-|-|-|7,500|7,542|7,585|7,629|7,674|7,720|7,766|7,814|7,862|7,912|7,962|8,014|8,066|8,120|8,467|8,951|9,460|9,996|10,559|11,152|4,276|
||-|-|-|(75,000)|(75,000)|(845)|(862)|(879)|(896)|(914)|(933)|(951)|(970)|(990)|(1,009)|(1,030)|(1,050)|(1,071)|(6,950)|(9,671)|(10,179)|(10,712)|(11,273)|(11,862)|(12,481)|(5,632)|
|Depreciation and amortisation折旧和摊销|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||-|-|-|41,850|38,700|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|(8,495)|-|
|Capitalinvestment资本投资|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||-|-|-|(33,150)|(36,300)|4,155|16,947|14,352|14,688|15,028|15,372|15,720|16,072|16,427|16,786|17,147|17,512|17,880|12,392|10,153|10,170|10,171|10,154|10,117|10,060|23,725|
|Financing and repayments融资和还款|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Free cashflows自由现金流量|||||||||||||||||||||||||||

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix6:Ethanol/XylitolMixed PlantProjections
附件 6乙醇/木糖醇混合工厂的预测
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000|FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Capacityusage产能使用 %||0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|50%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|
|Ethanol乙醇||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Production volume产量 ML||-|-|-|-|-|18|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|36|
|Ethanolprice (inc. inflation) 乙醇价格（含通胀）$/L||1.1750|1.1985|1.2225|1.2470|1.2719|1.2973|1.3233|1.3498|1.3767|1.4043|1.4324|1.4610|1.4902|1.5200|1.5504|1.5814|1.6131|1.6453|1.6782|1.7118|1.7460|1.7810|1.8166|1.8529|1.8900|1.9278|
|GST $/L||(0.1068)|(0.1090)|(0.1111)|(0.1134)|(0.1156)|(0.1179)|(0.1203)|(0.1227)|(0.1252)|(0.1277)|(0.1302)|(0.1328)|(0.1355)|(0.1382)|(0.1409)|(0.1438)|(0.1466)|(0.1496)|(0.1526)|(0.1556)|(0.1587)|(0.1619)|(0.1651)|(0.1684)|(0.1718)|(0.1753)|
|Ethanolexcise乙醇消费税 $/L||(0.0264)|(0.0538)|(0.0823)|(0.1119)|(0.1427)|(0.1456)|(0.1485)|(0.1514)|(0.1545)|(0.1576)|(0.1607)|(0.1639)|(0.1672)|(0.1706)|(0.1740)|(0.1774)|(0.1810)|(0.1846)|(0.1883)|(0.1921)|(0.1959)|(0.1998)|(0.2038)|(0.2079)|(0.2121)|(0.2163)|
|Adjustedprice调整后价格 $/L||1.0419|1.0358|1.0291|1.0217|1.0136|1.0338|1.0545|1.0756|1.0971|1.1191|1.1414|1.1643|1.1875|1.2113|1.2355|1.2602|1.2854|1.3111|1.3374|1.3641|1.3914|1.4192|1.4476|1.4766|1.5061|1.5362|
|Ethanolrevenue乙醇带来的收益||-|-|-|-|-|18,609|37,962|38,722|39,496|40,286|41,092|41,913|42,752|43,607|44,479|45,368|46,276|47,201|48,145|49,108|50,090|51,092|52,114|53,156|54,220|55,304|
|Xylitol木糖醇||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Production volume产量 Tonnes||-|-|-|-|-|9,429|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|18,857|
|Xylitolprice (inc. inflation)木|$/kg|2.550|2.601|2.653|2.706|2.760|2.815|2.872|2.929|2.988|3.047|3.108|3.171|3.234|3.299|3.365|3.432|3.501|3.571|3.642|3.715|3.789|3.865|3.942|4.021|4.102|4.184|
|糖醇价格（含通胀）||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Xylitolrevenue木糖醇带来的收益||-|-|-|-|-|26,545|54,152|55,235|56,340|57,467|58,616|59,789|60,984|62,204|63,448|64,717|66,011|67,332|68,678|70,052|71,453|72,882|74,340|75,826|77,343|78,890|
|Totalrevenue总收益||-|-|-|-|-|45,154|92,115|93,957|95,836|97,753|99,708|101,702|103,736|105,811|107,927|110,086|112,287|114,533|116,824|119,160|121,543|123,974|126,454|128,983|131,562|134,194|
|Costofsales销售成本||-|-|-|-|-|(6,033)|(12,307)|(12,553)|(12,805)|(13,061)|(13,322)|(13,588)|(13,860)|(14,137)|(14,420)|(14,708)|(15,003)|(15,303)|(15,609)|(15,921)|(16,239)|(16,564)|(16,895)|(17,233)|(17,578)|(17,929)|
|Gross profit毛利||-|-|-|-|-|39,121|79,807|81,403|83,032|84,692|86,386|88,114|89,876|91,673|93,507|95,377|97,285|99,230|101,215|103,239|105,304|107,410|109,558|111,749|113,984|116,264|
|Grossmargin %毛利率||0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|86.6%|
|Operating expenses经营支出||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-Ethanol乙醇(@A$0.34 /L)||-|-|-|-|-|(6,892)|(14,060)|(14,341)|(14,628)|(14,920)|(15,219)|(15,523)|(15,834)|(16,150)|(16,473)|(16,803)|(17,139)|(17,482)|(17,831)|(18,188)|(18,552)|(18,923)|(19,301)|(19,687)|(20,081)|(20,483)|
|-Xylitol木糖醇(@A$1.00 /kg)||-|-|-|-|-|(10,618)|(21,661)|(22,094)|(22,536)|(22,987)|(23,446)|(23,915)|(24,394)|(24,882)|(25,379)|(25,887)|(26,405)|(26,933)|(27,471)|(28,021)|(28,581)|(29,153)|(29,736)|(30,331)|(30,937)|(31,556)|
|Depreciation折旧||-|-|-|-|-|(11,250)|(11,313)|(11,378)|(11,444)|(11,511)|(11,580)|(11,650)|(11,721)|(11,794)|(11,868)|(11,944)|(12,021)|(12,100)|(12,180)|(12,568)|(13,285)|(14,038)|(14,831)|(15,666)|(16,544)|(6,218)|
|Totaloverheads总营业费||-|-|-|-|-|(28,760)|(47,034)|(47,813)|(48,608)|(49,418)|(50,245)|(51,088)|(51,948)|(52,826)|(53,721)|(54,633)|(55,564)|(56,514)|(57,483)|(58,777)|(60,417)|(62,114)|(63,868)|(65,684)|(67,562)|(58,256)|
|EBIT||-|-|-|-|-|10,361|32,773|33,590|34,424|35,274|36,141|37,025|37,928|38,848|39,786|40,744|41,720|42,716|43,732|44,462|44,887|45,296|45,690|46,066|46,422|58,008|
|EBITmarginEBIT利润||0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|22.9%|35.6%|35.8%|35.9%|36.1%|36.2%|36.4%|36.6%|36.7%|36.9%|37.0%|37.2%|37.3%|37.4%|37.3%|36.9%|36.5%|36.1%|35.7%|35.3%|43.2%|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000 FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Interestexpense利息支出|-|-|-|(4,725)|(9,450)|(9,450)|(9,219)|(8,973)|(8,709)|(8,427)|(8,124)|(7,801)|(7,455)|(7,085)|(6,689)|(6,265)|(5,812)|(5,326)|(4,807)|(4,252)|(3,657)|(3,021)|(2,341)|(1,613)|(834)|-|
|Profitbefore tax税前利润|-|-|-|(4,725)|(9,450)|911|23,554|24,617|25,715|26,847|28,017|29,224|30,472|31,763|33,097|34,479|35,909|37,390|38,925|40,210|41,229|42,275|43,349|44,453|45,589|58,008|
|Notionaltax概念税|-|-|-|-|-|-|(3,087)|(7,385)|(7,714)|(8,054)|(8,405)|(8,767)|(9,142)|(9,529)|(9,929)|(10,344)|(10,773)|(11,217)|(11,678)|(12,063)|(12,369)|(12,682)|(13,005)|(13,336)|(13,677)|(17,402)|
|Netprofitafter tax税后净利润|-|-|-|(4,725)|(9,450)|911|20,467|17,232|18,000|18,793|19,612|20,457|21,331|22,234|23,168|24,135|25,136|26,173|27,248|28,147|28,860|29,592|30,344|31,117|31,912|40,605|
|Add:附加|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||-|-|-|4,725|9,450|9,450|9,219|8,973|8,709|8,427|8,124|7,801|7,455|7,085|6,689|6,265|5,812|5,326|4,807|4,252|3,657|3,021|2,341|1,613|834|-|
|Interestexpense利息支出|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||-|-|-|-|-|10,361|29,686|26,205|26,709|27,220|27,736|28,258|28,786|29,319|29,857|30,400|30,948|31,499|32,055|32,399|32,518|32,614|32,685|32,730|32,746|40,605|
|Netoperatingprofitafter tax 税后净经营收益|-|-|-|-|-|11,250|11,313|11,378|11,444|11,511|11,580|11,650|11,721|11,794|11,868|11,944|12,021|12,100|12,180|12,568|13,285|14,038|14,831|15,666|16,544|6,218|
|Depreciation and amortisation 折旧和摊销|-|-|-|(112,500)|(112,500)|(1,267)|(1,292)|(1,318)|(1,344)|(1,371)|(1,399)|(1,427)|(1,455)|(1,484)|(1,514)|(1,544)|(1,575)|(1,607)|(7,771)|(14,321)|(15,072)|(15,861)|(16,691)|(17,563)|(18,479)|(8,191)|
|Capitalinvestment资本投资|-|-|-|62,775|58,050|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|(12,743)|-|
|Financing and repayments融资和还款|-|-|-|(49,725)|(54,450)|7,601|26,964|23,522|24,066|24,616|25,174|25,738|26,308|26,885|27,468|28,056|28,650|29,249|23,721|17,904|17,987|18,048|18,083|18,090|18,068|38,632|
|Free cashflows自由现金流量|||||||||||||||||||||||||||

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix7:EthtecProjections-BaseCase
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000 FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Numberofplants工厂的数量|-|-|-|-|-|1|1|2|2|3|6|9|13|18|24|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|
|Equivalent60ML plants相当于60ML产量的工厂|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|0.50|1.00|1.50|3.50|6.50|10.00|14.50|20.00|25.50|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|
|Equivalentmixed 36ML Ethanolplants|-|-|-|-|-|0.50|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|
|Ethanol marketshare %乙醇市场份额|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|1.0%|2.1%|3.8%|5.5%|7.2%|14.0%|24.3%|36.3%|51.7%|70.6%|89.4%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|
|Growth %增长率|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|100.0%|83.3%|45.5%|31.3%|95.2%|73.2%|49.3%|42.5%|36.4%|26.7%|9.6%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|
|Ethanolrevenue乙醇收益 $'m|-|-|-|-|-|18.6|38.0|71.0|105.3|141.0|280.8|496.0|755.3|1,097.4|1,527.1|1,973.5|2,205.8|2,249.9|2,294.9|2,340.8|2,387.6|2,435.4|2,484.1|2,533.8|2,584.5|2,636.2|
|Xylitolrevenue 木糖醇收益 $'m|-|-|-|-|-|26.5|54.2|55.2|56.3|57.5|58.6|59.8|61.0|62.2|63.4|64.7|66.0|67.3|68.7|70.1|71.5|72.9|74.3|75.8|77.3|78.9|
|Royalty专利使用费|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-Ethanol乙醇(@6.0% ofsales)|-|-|-|-|-|1,117|2,278|4,259|6,319|8,460|16,848|29,759|45,317|65,846|91,627|118,412|132,349|134,996|137,696|140,450|143,259|146,124|149,046|152,027|155,068|158,169|
|-Xylitol木糖醇(@6.0% ofsales)|-|-|-|-|-|1,593|3,249|3,314|3,380|3,448|3,517|3,587|3,659|3,732|3,807|3,883|3,961|4,040|4,121|4,203|4,287|4,373|4,460|4,550|4,641|4,733|
|Upfront licensing fees前期许可费|-|-|-|-|3,000|-|3,000|-|3,000|9,000|9,000|12,000|15,000|18,000|15,000|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Technicalservice fees技术服务费|-|-|-|500|500|1,000|1,000|1,500|2,700|4,200|5,900|8,400|11,100|12,500|11,600|10,200|8,700|6,700|4,600|4,000|3,200|2,200|1,000|-|-|-|
|TotalEthtec revenueEthtec的总收益|-|-|-|500|3,500|3,709|9,527|9,073|15,400|25,108|35,265|53,746|75,076|100,078|122,033|132,495|145,010|145,736|146,417|148,653|150,746|152,697|154,507|156,577|159,708|162,903|
|Revenue growth % 收益增长|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|600.0%|6.0%|156.8%|-4.8%|69.7%|63.0%|40.5%|52.4%|39.7%|33.3%|21.9%|8.6%|9.4%|0.5%|0.5%|1.5%|1.4%|1.3%|1.2%|1.3%|2.0%|2.0%|
|Grant income资助收入|1,676|500|6,801|463|389|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Royaltyto ApaceApace的专利使用费|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|(680)|(1,763)|(2,687)|(3,754)|(8,249)|(12,203)|(13,249)|(14,501)|(14,574)|(14,642)|(14,865)|(15,075)|(15,270)|(15,451)|(15,658)|(15,971)|(16,290)|
|Operating expenses经营支出|(2,550)|(2,601)|(2,653)|(2,706)|(2,760)|(3,378)|(3,446)|(4,101)|(4,183)|(4,876)|(6,839)|(8,878)|(11,642)|(15,174)|(19,515)|(23,337)|(23,804)|(24,280)|(24,766)|(25,261)|(25,766)|(26,282)|(26,807)|(27,343)|(27,890)|(28,448)|
|EBITDA|(874)|(2,101)|4,148|(1,743)|1,129|331|6,081|4,973|11,217|19,552|26,663|42,181|59,680|76,656|90,315|95,908|106,705|106,882|107,009|108,526|109,905|111,145|112,249|113,576|115,847|118,164|
|EBITDAmargin %EBITDA利润率|n/a|n/a|n/a -|348.5%|32.3%|8.9%|63.8%|54.8%|72.8%|77.9%|75.6%|78.5%|79.5%|76.6%|74.0%|72.4%|73.6%|73.3%|73.1%|73.0%|72.9%|72.8%|72.6%|72.5%|72.5%|72.5%|
|Depreciation折旧|(6)|(8)|(8)|(20)|(22)|(1,620)|(1,638)|(1,651)|(1,670)|(1,689)|(1,709)|(1,727)|(1,748)|(2,168)|(2,780)|(3,363)|(3,744)|(4,186)|(4,411)|(4,648)|(4,927)|(5,218)|(5,520)|(5,827)|(6,151)|(4,916)|
|EBIT|(879)|(2,108)|4,140|(1,762)|1,108|(1,289)|4,443|3,321|9,547|17,863|24,954|40,453|57,932|74,488|87,534|92,545|102,960|102,696|102,598|103,879|104,978|105,928|106,729|107,749|109,696|113,248|
|EBITmargin %EBIT利润率|n/a|n/a|n/a -|352.4%|31.6%|-34.8%|46.6%|36.6%|62.0%|71.1%|70.8%|75.3%|77.2%|74.4%|71.7%|69.8%|71.0%|70.5%|70.1%|69.9%|69.6%|69.4%|69.1%|68.8%|68.7%|69.5%|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000|FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Notionaltax税收概念|(504)|-|(145)|(2,038)|(283)|(1,160)|(525)|(2,170)|(1,893)|(3,687)|(6,223)|(8,576)|(13,410)|(18,883)|(24,110)|(28,302)|(29,960)|(32,905)|(32,660)|(32,479)|(32,724)|(32,926)|(33,093)|(33,226)|(33,433)|(33,926)|(34,908)|
|R&D taxincentive研发税的优惠||1,796|1,181|5,603|1,914|1,508|1,347|1,237|1,306|1,199|1,089|1,347|1,555|3,042|3,708|3,793|3,392|3,218|2,558|2,358|2,220|2,045|1,884|1,736|1,607|1,502|1,327|
|Netoperatingprofitafter tax税后净利润||917|(1,072)|7,704|(131)|1,455|(468)|3,509|2,734|7,058|12,729|17,724|28,598|42,091|54,085|63,025|65,976|73,273|72,594|72,477|73,375|74,097|74,719|75,239|75,923|77,272|79,667|
|Depreciation and amortisation折旧和摊销||6|8|8|20|22|1,620|1,638|1,651|1,670|1,689|1,709|1,727|1,748|2,168|2,780|3,363|3,744|4,186|4,411|4,648|4,927|5,218|5,520|5,827|6,151|4,916|
|Capitalinvestment资本投资||(1,941)|(353)|(11,354)|(2,080)|(1,009)|(363)|(370)|(378)|(385)|(393)|(401)|(409)|(8,546)|(12,169)|(11,562)|(7,548)|(8,750)|(4,476)|(4,684)|(5,542)|(5,764)|(5,998)|(6,244)|(6,655)|(7,403)|(6,194)|
|Free cashflows自由现金流量||(1,018)|(1,416)|(3,641)|(2,191)|468|789|4,777|4,008|8,343|14,025|19,032|29,917|35,292|44,084|54,243|61,792|68,267|72,304|72,204|72,480|73,260|73,938|74,515|75,095|76,019|78,389|
|Partperiod factor部分时间因素||1||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Yearsto midpoint半年计年份||0.5|1.5|2.5|3.5|4.5|5.5|6.5|7.5|8.5|9.5|10.5|11.5|12.5|13.5|14.5|15.5|16.5|17.5|18.5|19.5|20.5|21.5|22.5|23.5|24.5|25.5|
|Discountfactor@20.0%||0.913|0.761|0.634|0.528|0.440|0.367|0.306|0.255|0.212|0.177|0.147|0.123|0.102|0.085|0.071|0.059|0.049|0.041|0.034|0.029|0.024|0.020|0.017|0.014|0.011|0.010|
|Presentvalue现值||(929)|(1,077)|(2,308)|(1,158)|206|290|1,460|1,021|1,771|2,481|2,806|3,676|3,613|3,761|3,857|3,661|3,371|2,975|2,476|2,071|1,744|1,467|1,232|1,035|873|750|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix8:EthtecProjections-UpsideCase
附件 8 Ethtec预测-上行情况
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000 FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Numberofplants工厂的数量|-|-|-|-|-|1|1|2|2|3|9|12|19|24|33|47|56|68|83|101|116|116|116|116|116|116|
|Equivalent60ML plants相当于60ML产量的工厂|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|0.50|4.00|8.50|13.50|19.50|26.50|38.00|49.50|60.00|73.50|90.00|106.50|114.00|114.00|114.00|114.00|114.00|
|Equivalentmixed 36ML Ethanolplants相当于|-|-|-|-|-|0.50|1.00|1.50|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|2.00|
|36ML产量的混合工厂|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Ethanol marketshare %乙醇市场份额|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.1%|0.1%|0.1%|0.3%|0.6%|0.9%|1.2%|1.7%|2.4%|3.0%|3.7%|4.5%|5.5%|6.5%|6.9%|6.9%|6.9%|6.9%|6.9%|
|Growth %增长率|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|100.0%|50.0%|33.3%|41.7%|205.9%|86.5%|51.5%|40.8%|33.8%|41.5%|29.3%|20.7%|22.1%|22.1%|18.1%|7.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|
|Ethanolrevenue乙醇收益 $'m|-|-|-|-|-|18.6|38.0|58.1|79.0|114.1|356.1|677.6|1,047.4|1,504.4|2,053.4|2,964.1|3,910.3|4,814.5|5,994.1|7,464.5|8,991.2|9,809.7|10,005.9|10,206.0|10,410.2|10,618.4|
|Xylitolrevenue木糖醇收益 $'m|-|-|-|-|-|26.5|54.2|82.9|112.7|114.9|117.2|119.6|122.0|124.4|126.9|129.4|132.0|134.7|137.4|140.1|142.9|145.8|148.7|151.7|154.7|157.8|
|Royalty专利使用费|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-Ethanol乙醇(@6.0% ofsales)|-|-|-|-|-|1,117|2,278|3,485|4,740|6,849|21,368|40,656|62,845|90,266|123,207|177,844|234,619|288,872|359,646|447,868|539,474|588,583|600,355|612,362|624,609|637,101|
|-Xylitol木糖醇(@6.0% ofsales)|-|-|-|-|-|1,593|3,249|4,971|6,761|6,896|7,034|7,175|7,318|7,464|7,614|7,766|7,921|8,080|8,241|8,406|8,574|8,746|8,921|9,099|9,281|9,467|
|Upfront licensing fees前期许可费|-|-|-|-|3,000|-|3,000|-|3,000|18,000|9,000|21,000|15,000|27,000|42,000|27,000|36,000|45,000|54,000|45,000|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Technicalservice fees技术服务费|-|-|-|500|500|1,000|1,000|1,500|4,200|5,700|8,900|11,400|15,600|20,600|24,200|27,900|33,900|40,000|42,100|38,800|33,800|28,300|21,100|13,800|12,000|9,600|
|TotalEthtec revenueEthtec的总收益|-|-|-|500|3,500|3,709|9,527|9,956|18,700|37,445|46,302|80,231|100,763|145,330|197,020|240,510|312,440|381,952|463,987|540,074|581,849|625,629|630,375|635,261|645,890|656,168|
|Revenue growth % 利润率|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|600.0%|6.0%|156.8%|4.5%|87.8%|100.2%|23.7%|73.3%|25.6%|44.2%|35.6%|22.1%|29.9%|22.2%|21.5%|16.4%|7.7%|7.5%|0.8%|0.8%|1.7%|1.6%|
|Grant income 资助收入|1,676|500|6,801|463|389|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Royaltyto ApaceApace的专利使用费|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|(1,506)|(2,315)|(4,012)|(7,265)|(14,533)|(19,702)|(24,051)|(31,244)|(38,195)|(46,399)|(54,007)|(58,185)|(62,563)|(63,038)|(63,526)|(64,589)|(65,617)|
|Operating expenses经营支出|(2,550)|(2,601)|(2,653)|(2,706)|(2,760)|(3,378)|(3,446)|(4,101)|(4,183)|(4,876)|(8,704)|(10,780)|(15,523)|(19,132)|(25,571)|(35,692)|(42,707)|(52,131)|(64,100)|(78,755)|(91,698)|(93,532)|(95,402)|(97,310)|(99,257)|(101,242)|
|EBITDA|(874)|(2,101)|4,148|(1,743)|1,129|331|6,081|5,855|14,518|31,063|35,283|65,439|77,974|111,665|151,747|180,767|238,489|291,626|353,489|407,311|431,966|469,534|471,935|474,424|482,044|489,309|
|EBITDAmargin %EBITDA利润|n/a|n/a|n/a -|348.5%|32.3%|8.9%|63.8%|58.8%|77.6%|83.0%|76.2%|81.6%|77.4%|76.8%|77.0%|75.2%|76.3%|76.4%|76.2%|75.4%|74.2%|75.0%|74.9%|74.7%|74.6%|74.6%|
|Depreciation折旧|(6)|(8)|(8)|(20)|(22)|(1,620)|(1,638)|(1,651)|(1,670)|(1,689)|(1,709)|(1,727)|(2,195)|(2,710)|(3,745)|(4,977)|(6,106)|(7,867)|(9,668)|(11,813)|(13,946)|(15,494)|(17,152)|(18,103)|(19,096)|(18,653)|
|EBIT|(879)|(2,108)|4,140|(1,762)|1,108|(1,289)|4,443|4,204|12,847|29,373|33,574|63,712|75,779|108,955|148,002|175,790|232,382|283,759|343,821|395,498|418,020|454,040|454,784|456,321|462,949|470,656|
|EBITmargin %EBIT利润|n/a|n/a|n/a -|352.4%|31.6%|-34.8%|46.6%|42.2%|68.7%|78.4%|72.5%|79.4%|75.2%|75.0%|75.1%|73.1%|74.4%|74.3%|74.1%|73.2%|71.8%|72.6%|72.1%|71.8%|71.7%|71.7%|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000|FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Notionaltax概念税收|(504)|-|(145)|(2,038)|(283)|(1,160)|(525)|(2,170)|(2,158)|(4,678)|(9,676)|(11,460)|(20,660)|(24,738)|(34,910)|(47,076)|(56,097)|(73,333)|(89,103)|######|######|######|(140,892)|(140,731)|(140,840)|(142,505)|(144,520)|
|R&D taxincentive研发税优惠||1,796|1,181|5,603|1,914|1,508|1,347|1,237|1,306|1,199|1,089|1,693|3,356|3,907|5,379|6,101|6,378|7,669|7,811|8,534|8,720|7,935|7,386|6,013|5,549|5,217|4,749|
|Netoperatingprofitafter tax税后净经营利润||917|(1,072)|7,704|(131)|1,455|(468)|3,509|3,352|9,369|20,786|23,807|46,408|54,948|79,424|107,028|126,071|166,718|202,467|244,809|280,704|295,452|320,535|320,065|321,030|325,661|330,885|
|Depreciation and amortisation折旧和摊销||6|8|8|20|22|1,620|1,638|1,651|1,670|1,689|1,709|1,727|2,195|2,710|3,745|4,977|6,106|7,867|9,668|11,813|13,946|15,494|17,152|18,103|19,096|18,653|
|Capitalinvestment资本投资||(1,941)|(353)|(11,354)|(2,080)|(1,009)|(363)|(370)|(378)|(385)|(393)|(401)|(9,269)|(10,408)|(20,536)|(24,420)|(22,373)|(34,878)|(35,672)|(42,482)|(42,248)|(30,656)|(33,006)|(19,050)|(20,057)|(23,347)|(22,764)|
|Free cashflows自由现金流量||(1,018)|(1,416)|(3,641)|(2,191)|468|789|4,777|4,626|10,654|22,083|25,116|38,866|46,735|61,597|86,352|108,674|137,947|174,662|211,995|250,269|278,742|303,023|318,167|319,076|321,409|326,774|
|Partperiod factor部分时间因素||1||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Yearsto midpoint半年计年||0.5|1.5|2.5|3.5|4.5|5.5|6.5|7.5|8.5|9.5|10.5|11.5|12.5|13.5|14.5|15.5|16.5|17.5|18.5|19.5|20.5|21.5|22.5|23.5|24.5|25.5|
|Discountfactor@20.0%贴现因素||0.913|0.761|0.634|0.528|0.440|0.367|0.306|0.255|0.212|0.177|0.147|0.123|0.102|0.085|0.071|0.059|0.049|0.041|0.034|0.029|0.024|0.020|0.017|0.014|0.011|0.010|
|Presentvalue现值||(929)|(1,077)|(2,308)|(1,158)|206|290|1,460|1,178|2,262|3,907|3,703|4,775|4,785|5,256|6,140|6,439|6,811|7,187|7,269|7,151|6,637|6,013|5,261|4,397|3,691|3,127|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix9:EthtecProjections-LowCase
附件 9 Ethtec预测-下行情况
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000 FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Numberofplants工厂数量|-|-|-|-|-|1|1|2|2|3|6|9|13|18|24|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|29|
|Equivalent60ML plants与60ML工厂产量相当|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|0.50|1.00|1.50|3.50|6.50|10.00|14.50|20.00|25.50|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|28.00|
|Equivalentmixed 36ML Ethanolplants|-|-|-|-|-|0.50|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|
|与36ML混合工厂产量相当|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Ethanol marketshare %乙醇的市场份额|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|1.0%|2.1%|3.8%|5.5%|7.2%|14.0%|24.3%|36.3%|51.7%|70.6%|89.4%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|98.0%|
|Growth % 增长率%|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|100.0%|83.3%|45.5%|31.3%|95.2%|73.2%|49.3%|42.5%|36.4%|26.7%|9.6%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|0.0%|
|Ethanolrevenue乙醇收益 $'m|-|-|-|-|-|18.6|38.0|71.0|105.3|141.0|280.8|496.0|755.3|1,097.4|1,527.1|1,973.5|2,205.8|2,249.9|2,294.9|2,340.8|2,387.6|2,435.4|2,484.1|2,533.8|2,584.5|2,636.2|
|Xylitolrevenue木糖醇收益 $'m|-|-|-|-|-|26.5|54.2|55.2|56.3|57.5|58.6|59.8|61.0|62.2|63.4|64.7|66.0|67.3|68.7|70.1|71.5|72.9|74.3|75.8|77.3|78.9|
|Royalty专利使用费|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-Ethanol乙醇(@2.0% ofsales)|-|-|-|-|-|372|759|1,420|2,106|2,820|5,616|9,920|15,106|21,949|30,542|39,471|44,116|44,999|45,899|46,817|47,753|48,708|49,682|50,676|51,689|52,723|
|-Ethanol乙醇(@2.0% ofsales)|-|-|-|-|-|531|1,083|1,105|1,127|1,149|1,172|1,196|1,220|1,244|1,269|1,294|1,320|1,347|1,374|1,401|1,429|1,458|1,487|1,517|1,547|1,578|
|Upfront licensing fees前期许可费|-|-|-|-|3,000|-|3,000|-|3,000|9,000|9,000|12,000|15,000|18,000|15,000|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Technicalservice fees技术服务费|-|-|-|500|500|1,000|1,000|1,500|2,700|4,200|5,900|8,400|11,100|12,500|11,600|10,200|8,700|6,700|4,600|4,000|3,200|2,200|1,000|-|-|-|
|TotalEthtec revenueEthtec总收益|-|-|-|500|3,500|1,903|5,842|4,024|8,933|17,169|21,688|31,515|42,425|53,693|58,411|50,965|54,137|53,045|51,872|52,218|52,382|52,366|52,169|52,192|53,236|54,301|
|Revenue growth % 收益增长率|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|600.0%|-45.6%|207.0%|-31.1%|122.0%|92.2%|26.3%|45.3%|34.6%|26.6%|8.8%|-12.7%|6.2%|-2.0%|-2.2%|0.7%|0.3%|0.0%|-0.4%|0.0%|2.0%|2.0%|
|Grant income资助收入|1,676|500|6,801|463|389|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Royaltyto ApaceApace收到的专利使用费|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|(517)|(1,576)|(2,121)|(2,685)|(2,921)|(4,272)|(5,414)|(5,305)|(5,187)|(5,222)|(5,238)|(5,237)|(5,217)|(5,219)|(5,324)|(5,430)|
|Operating expenses经营支出|(2,550)|(2,601)|(2,653)|(2,706)|(2,760)|(3,378)|(3,446)|(4,101)|(4,183)|(4,876)|(6,839)|(8,878)|(11,642)|(15,174)|(19,515)|(23,337)|(23,804)|(24,280)|(24,766)|(25,261)|(25,766)|(26,282)|(26,807)|(27,343)|(27,890)|(28,448)|
|EBITDA|(874)|(2,101)|4,148|(1,743)|1,129|(1,475)|2,396|(76)|4,750|12,293|14,332|21,062|28,662|35,834|35,975|23,355|24,919|23,461|21,919|21,735|21,377|20,847|20,145|19,630|20,022|20,423|
|EBITDAmargin %EBITDA利润|n/a|n/a|n/a -|348.5%|32.3%|-77.5%|41.0%|-1.9%|53.2%|71.6%|66.1%|66.8%|67.6%|66.7%|61.6%|45.8%|46.0%|44.2%|42.3%|41.6%|40.8%|39.8%|38.6%|37.6%|37.6%|37.6%|
|Depreciation折旧|(6)|(8)|(8)|(20)|(22)|(1,620)|(1,638)|(1,651)|(1,670)|(1,689)|(1,709)|(1,727)|(1,748)|(1,757)|(1,823)|(2,009)|(2,031)|(2,126)|(2,211)|(2,299)|(2,421)|(2,546)|(2,674)|(2,805)|(2,946)|(1,515)|
|EBIT|(879)|(2,108)|4,140|(1,762)|1,108|(3,095)|758|(1,728)|3,080|10,604|12,623|19,334|26,914|34,077|34,153|21,346|22,888|21,334|19,708|19,436|18,956|18,301|17,470|16,825|17,076|18,908|
|EBITmargin %EBIT利润率|n/a|n/a|n/a -|352.4%|31.6%|-162.6%|13.0%|-42.9%|34.5%|61.8%|58.2%|61.3%|63.4%|63.5%|58.5%|41.9%|42.3%|40.2%|38.0%|37.2%|36.2%|34.9%|33.5%|32.2%|32.1%|34.8%|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000|FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Notionaltax概念税收|(504)|-|(145)|(2,038)|(283)|(1,160)|-|(1,048)|(379)|(1,747)|(4,045)|(4,877)|(7,074)|(9,578)|(11,987)|(12,287)|(8,601)|(8,883)|(8,252)|(7,612)|(7,391)|(7,119)|(6,805)|(6,448)|(6,156)|(6,140)|(6,606)|
|R&D taxincentive研发税优惠||1,796|1,181|5,603|1,914|1,508|1,347|1,237|1,306|1,199|1,245|1,347|1,555|1,817|2,238|2,834|2,612|2,540|2,310|2,122|1,996|1,832|1,682|1,545|1,426|1,330|1,164|
|Netoperatingprofitafter tax税后净营业利润||917|(1,072)|7,704|(131)|1,455|(1,748)|946|(800)|2,532|7,804|9,093|13,815|19,153|24,328|24,700|15,357|16,544|15,393|14,218|14,041|13,669|13,178|12,567|12,095|12,266|13,465|
|Depreciation and amortisation折扣和摊销||6|8|8|20|22|1,620|1,638|1,651|1,670|1,689|1,709|1,727|1,748|1,757|1,823|2,009|2,031|2,126|2,211|2,299|2,421|2,546|2,674|2,805|2,946|1,515|
|Capitalinvestment资本投资||(1,941)|(353)|(11,354)|(2,080)|(1,009)|(363)|(370)|(378)|(385)|(393)|(401)|(409)|(417)|(1,334)|(3,710)|(443)|(1,888)|(1,690)|(1,742)|(2,437)|(2,487)|(2,540)|(2,596)|(2,814)|(3,363)|(1,941)|
|Free cashflows自由现金流||(1,018)|(1,416)|(3,641)|(2,191)|468|(492)|2,214|473|3,817|9,100|10,401|15,133|20,484|24,752|22,813|16,924|16,687|15,830|14,688|13,903|13,604|13,185|12,646|12,086|11,849|13,040|
|Partperiod factor部分期间因素||1||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Yearsto midpoint 半年计年||0.5|1.5|2.5|3.5|4.5|5.5|6.5|7.5|8.5|9.5|10.5|11.5|12.5|13.5|14.5|15.5|16.5|17.5|18.5|19.5|20.5|21.5|22.5|23.5|24.5|25.5|
|Discountfactor贴现因素@20.0%||0.913|0.761|0.634|0.528|0.440|0.367|0.306|0.255|0.212|0.177|0.147|0.123|0.102|0.085|0.071|0.059|0.049|0.041|0.034|0.029|0.024|0.020|0.017|0.014|0.011|0.010|
|Presentvalue现值||(929)|(1,077)|(2,308)|(1,158)|206|(180)|677|121|810|1,610|1,533|1,859|2,097|2,112|1,622|1,003|824|651|504|397|324|262|209|167|136|125|

DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix10:EthtecProjections-FailureCase
附件 10 Ethtec预测-失败情况
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|$'000|FY16|FY17f|FY18f|FY19f|FY20f|FY21f|FY22f|FY23f|FY24f|FY25f|FY26f|FY27f|FY28f|FY29f|FY30f|FY31f|FY32f|FY33f|FY34f|FY35f|FY36f|FY37f|FY38f|FY39f|FY40f|FY41f|FY42f|
|Grant income 资助收入||1,676|500|6,801|463|389|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Royaltyto Apace||-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Apace收到的专利使用费||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Operating expenses 经营支出||(2,550)|(2,601)|(2,653)|(2,706)|(2,760)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|EBITDA息税折旧摊销前利润||(874)|(2,101)|4,148|(2,243)|(2,371)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|EBITDAmargin %EBITDA盈余%||n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|
|Depreciation折旧||(6)|(8)|(8)|(20)|(22)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|EBIT||(879)|(2,108)|4,140|(2,262)|(2,392)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|EBITmargin %||n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|n/a|
|EBIT盈余%||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Notionaltax概念税收|(504)|-|(145)|(2,038)|(133)|(110)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|R&D taxincentive 研发税优惠||1,796|1,181|5,603|1,914|1,508|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Netoperatingprofitafter tax||917|(1,072)|7,704|(481)|(995)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|经营收益税后净值||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Depreciation and amortization||6|8|8|20|22|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|折旧及摊销||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Capitalinvestment资本投入||(1,941)|(353)|(11,354)|(2,080)|(1,009)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Free cashflows自由现金流量||(1,018)|(1,416)|(3,641)|(2,541)|(1,982)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|Partperiod factor部分时间因素||1||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Yearsto midpoint 半年计年||0.5|1.5|2.5|3.5|4.5|5.5|6.5|7.5|8.5|9.5|10.5|11.5|12.5|13.5|14.5|15.5|16.5|17.5|18.5|19.5|20.5|21.5|22.5|23.5|24.5|25.5|
|Discountfactor@20.0%||0.913|0.761|0.634|0.528|0.440|0.367|0.306|0.255|0.212|0.177|0.147|0.123|0.102|0.085|0.071|0.059|0.049|0.041|0.034|0.029|0.024|0.020|0.017|0.014|0.011|0.010|
|贴现率20%时的贴现因素||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Presentvalue现值||(929)|(1,077)|(2,308)|(1,343)|(873)|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix11:DiscountRateFramework
附件 11贴现率框架
Weighted AverageCostofCapital加权平均资本成本
WACCreflectsthe rateofreturnexpected for an asset, adjusted for its underlyingfunding structure, such asrelative
components of debtandequity. Itis calculated asfollows:
加权平均资本成本（WACC）反映了基于基本融资的结构调整后，资产的预期回报率，比如债务和股权的相关组成部分。
WACC计算方法如下：
||
|-|
|WACCFormula(Standard) WACC公式（标准）|
|WACC= [K x E/V] + [K x D/V x(1-t)]e d|
|Components组成WACC Weighted average costof capital加权平均资本成本D Marketvalueofdebt债务市值E Marketvalueofequity股权市值K Costof debt(pre-tax) whichis therateofreturnrequired bytheproviders of debt capitald债务成本（税前），是债务资本提供者要求的回报率K Costof equity(post-tax) which istherate of return requiredbythe providersofequitycapitale股权成本（税前），是股票资本提供者要求的回报率|

t Corporatetaxrate公司税率
V Marketvalueof business(whereV=D+E)业务市值（其中V=D+E）
CostofEquity股权成本
There areanumberof modelsavailable for estimatingthe cost of equityfor aninvestment. The most commonlyusedin practice istheCapital Asset PricingModel("CAPM"),whichwehave usedinthisreport.
在估计投资权益成本时，有许多模型可用。实践中最常用的是资本资产定价模型(CAPM)，我们在此报告中使用过。
The CAPMisbased ontheassumptionthatinvestorsrequirea premiumforinvestingin equitiesabovetheexpected return frominvesting inriskfree assets(suchas Australiangovernment bonds).
CAPM基于这样一个假设，即投资者要求投资于股票的溢价要高于投资于无风险资产(如澳大利亚政府债券)的预期回报。
||||
|-|-|-|
|CAPM FormulaCAPM公式|||
|K e= R f+ β(R m- R f) + α s+ αc|||
|Components组成|Assumptions假设||
|Ke|Costofequity股权成本|◆ Investors arerationaland riskaverse投资者是理性的，规避风险|
|Rf|Risk freerate无风险折现率|◆ Investors arewidelydiversified投资者大都是多种经营|
|β|Systematic risk不可避免风险|◆ There areno transaction costs (includingtaxation)无交易成本(包括税收)|
|Rm|Required returnfrom the market市场必要收入|◆ Investors canlendorborrowunlimitedamounts投资者可以无限制地放贷或借款|
|R m- Rf|EquityMarket RiskPremium股票市场的风险溢价|◆ Investors lendand borrowat the riskfreerate投资者以无风险折现率放款和借款|
|αs|Sizepremium规模溢价||
|αc|Companyspecificriskpremium公司特定风险溢价||

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
DiscountRateBasis贴现率的基础
In undertakingadiscounted cashflowanalysis it isnecessarytodecidehowtotreat a number of keyfactors, as discussed inthe followingtable:
在进行贴现现金流量分析时，按照下述表格，确定如何处理几个关键因素是很有必要的：
|||
|-|-|
|Issue事项 SelectedApproach所选方法||
|Debt债务|The impact ofdebt canbe takenintoaccountintwoways:可以从以下两方面考虑债务的影响:|
||◆ In the projected cashflows,byforecasting cash flowsto equityinvestors(i.e.after|
||deducting interest and debt repayments) and applyingthe cost of equity(k ) asthee|
||discountrate.在预期现金流中，通过预测股票投资者的现金流(即扣除利息并偿还债|
||务后)，并将权益成本(ke)作为贴现率。|
||◆ In thediscountrate, byforecasting cash flowsbefore financingand applyingthe|
||weighted average costof capital ("WACC") as thediscount rate.在贴现率中，在|
||融资前预测现金流量，并将资本加权平均成本 (“WACC”)作为贴现率。|
||In this casewe have chosento includetheimpactof debt in thediscount ratebecause|
||financing cashflows can reliablybe separated fromEthtec'soperating business. Thisis|
|Taxation税款|sCtaasnhd aflrodw psraancdtidcies cfooru nnot nra-ftiensa ncacinabl ebpurseinpeasresdeosn. apreor posttaxbasis. Posttaxisthe|
||generallypreferredapproach,whichwehave appliedtoEthtec.在这种情况下，我们选择将债务|
||影响包括在贴现率中，因为既可计算税前的现金流量和贴现率，也可计算税后现金流量和贴|
||现率。税后计算是我们常用的方法，并且已应用到了Ethtec中。|
||We notethataccounting standard AASB136Impairmentof Assetsrequiresimpairmenttesting|
||tobe undertakenwith apre taxdiscountrate. However, there are somedifficulties in usinga|
||pretaxdiscount rate, thus market practice isto undertakeimpairment testing using|
||aposttaxdiscount rate,but to disclosethe equivalent pretaxratein thefinancial statements.我们|
||注意到:会计标准AASB136要求在税前贴现率的情况下进行减值测试。但是，在应用税前贴|
||现率的时候存在一些困难，因此在市场实践中，是采用税后贴现率进行减值测试的，但在财|
||务报表中披露的是相应的税前税率。|
|Inflation通胀|Itispossible toundertakea discounted cash flowanalysiswith inflationeither included|
||(nominal)or excluded(real) fromthe projected cashflows. Whicheverapproachisapplied to the|
||cash flows mustalsobeapplied tothe discount rate.有可能进行一个贴现现金流分析，无论预|
||期现金流中包括(名义)通胀还是不包括（真实）通胀。任何适用于现金流的方法也必须适用于|
||贴现率。|
||In theabsence of hyper-inflationitisgenerallypreferabletoundertake adiscounted cash|
||flowanalysisona nominalbasis(includinginflation). Wehavetherefore appliedthis approach|
||to assessingdiscountratesfor Ethtec.在没有恶性通货膨胀的情况下，一般来说在名义基础|
||(包括通货膨胀)上进行贴现现金流分析是比较可取的。因此，我们采用这种方法来评估|
||Ethtec的贴现率。|

As aresult ofthese considerationswe haveuseda nominal, post taxWACCappliedtonominal,post taxcashflows available toboth equityand debt investors.
这些考量的结果是，对于股票和债券投资者可用的税后名义现金流，我们使用了税后名义上的WACC。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix12:Weighted AverageCostofCapital
附件 12加权平均资本成本
The WACCreflects therate of return expectedforanasset,adjustedforitsunderlying funding structure,suchasrelative components ofdebt and equity. Itis calculated asfollows:
加权平均资本成本（WACC）反映了基于基本融资的结构调整后，资产的预期回报率，比如债务和股权的相关组成部分。
WACC计算方法如下：
WACC=[KxE/V]+[KxD/Vx(1-t)]
e d
The WACCformulaincludes anestimateofthe cost of equity(Ke). Thereare anumber of models availablefor estimating the costof equityforaninvestment.The most commonlyusedin practiceisthe CapitalAssetpricingModel
("CAPM"),whichwehaveused inthisreport. The CAPMformulaisprovidedbelow:
WACC公式包括对股权成本（Ke）的估计。用于估计投资股本成本的模型很多。在实践中最常用的是资本资产定价模型(CAPM)，该模型曾在本报告中使用过。CAPM公式表示如下:
Ke=R+β(R -R)+α+α
f m f s c
The componentsof theWACCandKeare summarised inthetablebelow:
WACC及Ke的组成在下表中给出小结：
||||
|-|-|-|
|Component组成 Description描述|Low低|High高|
|The riskfreerate isestimatedbyreferencetothe yieldonten year AustralianR|||
||2.70%|2.70%|
|参考10年期的澳大利亚政府债券的收益之后，我们对无风险贴现率进行了估计。截至2017年2月10日，它是:|||
|Leadenhall hasexamined thebetaestimates of comparableindustries.Wehave|||
|selected thefollowing equitybetahaving regardtothe relativelyhighβ|1.00|1.10|
|riskinessofnature : Leadenhall研究了可比行业的beta估计。我们选择了下述具|||
|有天然高风险的股权beta：|||
|The Market Risk Premium(EMRP) reflects theexpected"additional return"over the|69..52%%|69..59%%|
|risk freerate for bearingthe additionalriskofinvestinginriskyassets(businesses).|||
|Leadenhall undertakesananalysisof EMRP implied bymarket pricesonthe ASXR - Rm f|||
|EMRPs appliedbyotherindustrypractitioners. As at December 2016 weadopted|||
|anEMRP for Australiaof6.5%.市场风险溢价(EMRP)反映了预期的基于无风险贴现率的“额外回报”，以承担对|7.0%|8.0%|
|风险资产(业务)投资的额外风险。至少每六个月Leadenhall就会对ASX的市场价格进行一次EMRP分析。该分析与其他|||
|行业从业人员的EMRPs审查一起进行的。截止2016年12月，我们对澳大利亚采用的EMRP为6.5%。|||
|Standard CAPMCost of Equity(Post-taxNominal)|||
|标准CAPM股权成本(税后名义)|||
|The sizepremium istheadditional returnthat investors requirefor the|||
|risksofinvesting in smallbusinesses. The sizepremium|||
||3.0%|3.0%|
|canbeobservedinearnings|||
|multiples of listed companies, withlarge companiestradingon higher multiplesαs|||
|measuring sizepremiumsin Australia.Inour experiencea sizepremiumof 7.0%to|||
|8.0% isreasonable for abusiness the size of Ethtec:规模溢价是投资者投资于小型企业所承担风险|||
|的额外回报。在上市公司的盈利倍数中可以观察到其规模溢价；大公司的盈利倍数比小公司要高，其他所有公司的市盈|||
|率都是平等的。在澳大利亚对规模溢价的研究有限。以我们的经验来看，对于规模如Ethtec的公司来说，合理的规模溢|||
||19.2%|20.9%|
|价在7.0%到8.0%。|||

Ifthereis a specificrisk differencein the subject companyrelativeto companies from which the
market data is drawn, an adjustment to the discount rate may be
appropriate. This difference may be due to an element of risk that neither the beta
factor nor the size premium fully account for. The 'specific risk' factor could also be
495n7e gEathtitveecV ifa liut awtieorne ( dcroanftc) l2u1d0e2d2 0th17a t the subject company was less risky than the Page 55of59
average comparable company. In selecting an appropriate alpha, we have
considered the risks associated with key person retention and customer and
supplier concentration risks as well as the lack of direct ownership of the underlying
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
from which the market data is drawn, an adjustment to the discount rate may be
appropriate. This difference may be due to an element of risk that neither the beta
factor nor the size premium fully account for. The 'specific risk' factor could also be
negative if it were concluded that the subject company was less risky than the
average comparable company. In selecting an appropriate alpha, we have
considered the risks associated with key person retention and customer and
supplier concentration risks as well as the lack of direct ownership of the underlying
IP. These risks have not been factored into our cash flow analysis or probability
weightings. We have therefore adopted a specific risk premium of:
规模溢价是投资者投资于小型企业所承担风险的额外回报。在上市公司的盈利倍数中可以观察到其规模溢价；大公司的盈利倍数比小公司要高，其他所有公司的市盈率都是平等的。在澳大利亚对规模溢价的研究有限。以我们的经验来看，对于规模如Ethtec的公司来说，合理的规模溢价在7.0%到8.0%。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
||||
|-|-|-|
|Component组件 Description描述|Low低|High高|
|E/Vrepresents theproportion of equityin the capital structure. The capital structure used toassess thediscountrate|||
|shouldbe basedon anefficientcapital structure,|||
|as opposedtothe actuallevelsofdebt andequityin thebusiness. An analysisofE/V|||
||90.0%|95.0%|
|coverhasbeenundertaken toassessan appropriate capital structure. Basedon this analysiswe have selected a capital|||
|structurewith equityof: E/V表示了资本结构中的股权占比。用于评估贴现率的资本结构应基于一个有效的资本结构，而|||
|非业务的实际债务水平和股权。为了评估一个资本结构是否恰当，我们对可比公司进行了分析，并对基于利息保障倍数|||
|的可用债务进行了评估。基于上述分析，我们选择了一个资本结构，它应占有股权为:|||
|D/Vrepresents theproportion of debtinthe capital structure. Bydefinition D/V plus|10.0%|5.0%|
|E/V E/Vmust equal one. We haveassessedD/Vfor Ethtecassuming limitedtangible assetbacking.D/V表示债务在资本结构中|||
|的占比。根据定义，D/V + E/V=1。在假设存在有限的有形资产支持下，我们对Ethtec的D/V进行了评估。|||
|K The cost ofdebt isan estimateoftheinterest rate requiredbylenderstothe business.It is relatedtothe sizeofthebusiness,|||
|the levelofgearingandtheriskiness of lending tothebusiness.Indetermining anappropriate costof debt we|||
|and theprevailingindicativelending ratesaspublishedbytheRBA. Basedonthis analysis wehave adopteda costof debt of:|||
|债务的成本是出借方对业务所要求的利率估计，与业务规模、杠杆水平及贷款对业务的风险有关。在确定适当的债务成|7.5%|8.5%|
|本时，我们已考虑了适用于企业当前债务的实际利率以及RBA公布的现行指示性贷款利率。基于此分析，我们接受了|||
|债务成本:|||
|Interestpaidon debt is generallydeductible.TheAustralian corporatetaxrateof30.0% has been adopted for this purpose债务t|||
|利息一般都是可扣除的。澳大利亚公司30.0%的公司税都是债务利息。|||
||30.0%|30.0%|
|WeightedAverageCostof Capital(Post-taxNominal) 加权平均资本成本(税后名义)|||
||6.6%|6.7%|
|SelectedWACC 选定的WACC|||
||18.0%|20.0%|

Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Appendix13:Disclaimers
附件 13免责声明
ResponsibilityandPurpose责任和目的
This report hasbeen preparedfor Ethtecforcapitalraisingpurposes.Leadenhallexpresslydisclaimsanyliabilityto Ethtec,or anyoneelse,whether for ournegligenceor otherwise,if thereportisusedbyanyother person or for anyother purpose.
本报告是为Ethtec筹集资金而作。若本报告被其他任何人或以任何其他用途使用，无论是因我们的疏忽或其他原因，Leadenhall明确表示不对Ethtec或其他任何人负有任何责任。
Neitherthewhole nor anypartof thisreport,nor anyreference thereto, maybe includedinorwithor attached toany
document(including electronically), circular,resolution, letteror statement,orreleasedexternallytoanyother party
withoutthe prior written consentof Leadenhall.
在无Leadenhall事先书面同意的情况下，本报告的全部或任何部分，或本报告所引用的任何参考，均不得包括或附于任何发送给第三方的文件(包括电子文本)、通知、决议、信件或声明中。
Reliance onInformation信息依赖性
In preparingthisreportwereliedonthe informationprovidedto usby Ethtecbeing completeandaccurateand wehave assumed it hasbeenprepared inaccordancewithapplicable AccountingStandardsandthe CorporationsAct 2001. We have not performed anaudit, reviewor financialdue diligenceonthe informationprovided. Draftsofourreport were issued to Ethtec management forconfirmation of factual accuracy.
在编撰本报告时，我们依据的是Ethtec提供给我们的准确完整的信息，且我们假定本报告已按照适用的会计准则和《2001年公司法》进行编写。我们未对所提供的信息进行审计、审查或财务尽职调查。我们所撰报告的草稿曾发给Ethtec的管理层，以确认事实的准确性。
ProspectiveFinancialInformation预期的财务信息
To the extent thatthisreportrefersto prospectivefinancial information, we have considered theprospective financial information andthebasis of theunderlying assumptions. Theprocedures involvedinLeadenhall's considerationof this information consistedoflimitedenquiries of Ethtec andEthtec personnel. These enquiriesdid not includeverification work nor constitutean audit or a reviewengagementin accordancewiththe Australian AuditingStandards,or anyother standards. Nothinghas cometo our attention asa result oftheseenquiries to suggestthat the financialprojectionsfor Ethtec whentaken asawhole,areunreasonable for thepurpose of thisreport.
当本报告在某种程度上指的是未来财务信息的情况下，我们考虑了潜在的财务信息以及基本假设的根据。Leadenhall对本信息的考量过程，包括对Ethtec和Ethtec人员的有限问询。此类问询不包括核实工作，也不构成澳大利亚审计标准或任何其他标准之下的审计或审查。但当我们整体考量时，我们不会因此类问询的任何结果，而认为就本报告而言，Ethtec的财务预测是不合理的。
We notethattheforecasts andprojections supplied tous are, bydefinition,basedupon assumptionsabouteventsand
circumstances thathavenotyet transpired. Actual results maybedifferentfrom theprospective financialinformation ofEthtec referredto inthis report andthe variation maybe material,sinceanticipatedevents frequentlydo not occur as expected. Accordinglywegive noassurancethatanyforecast results willbeachieved.
我们注意到：根据定义，提供给我们预测和推测是在尚未发生得有关事件和情况的假设之上的。因为预期事件经常不像预期那样发生，因此实际结果可能与本报告所提及的Ethtec的预期财务信息不同，并且变化可能是实质性的。所以我们不保证任何预测结果将会100%在现实中产生。
MarketConditions市场状况
Leadenhall's opinionisbased onprevailing market, economicandotherconditionsat the valuationdate. Conditions can change over relativelyshortperiodsof time. Anysubsequent changes inthese conditions couldimpactuponthe conclusion reachedin thisreport.
Leadenhall（伦敦肉类市场）的观点是基于评估当日的主导市场的、经济以及其他条件的。而这些条件在相对较短的时间内是会发生变化的。这些条件的任何后续变化都可能影响本报告所做出结论。
As avaluation isbased uponexpectationsoffutureresults it involves significantjudgement. Although we consider the assumptions usedandthe conclusionsreachedin thisreport arereasonable,other parties mayhavealternative expectations of the future, which mayresultindifferentvaluation conclusions.The conclusions reachedbyother parties
maybeoutsideLeadenhall's preferredrange.
由于评估是基于对未来结果的预期，因此它涉及重大的判断。虽然我们认为本报告中所使用的假设以及得出的结论是合理
的，但其他各方可能对未来有着不同的预期，因此这可能导致不同的评估结论。其他各方达成的结论有可能超出了
Leadenhall的首选范围。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Indemnities赔偿
In recognitionthatLeadenhall mayrelyon informationprovidedbyEthtecand itsofficers,employees,agents or advisors,Ethtec hasagreedthatit willnot make anyclaimagainst Leadenhall torecover anyloss or damagewhichitmaysuffer as aresultof that reliance andthat itwillindemnifyLeadenhallagainst anyliabilitythat arises out of Leadenhall's reliance onthe
informationprovidedbyEthtecand itsofficers, employees,agentsoradvisorsor the failurebyEthtecand its officers,
employees,agentsoradvisorsto provideLeadenhall withanymaterialinformation relatingto thisreport.
在认识到:Leadenhall（伦敦肉类市场）可能依靠Ethtec及其办公人员、雇员,代理或顾问提供的信息,Ethtec已同意：不会就任何因上述依赖性而引起的损失和损害向Leadenhall提起任何索赔；并且对于任何因Leadenhall相信Ethtec及其办公人员、雇员,代理或顾问提供的信息而引起的、Leadenhall所遭受的任何债务，或Ethtec及其办公人员、雇员,代理或顾问未能向Leadenhall提供事关本报告的重大信息而引起的责任，Ethtec将对Leadenhall作出补偿。
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of EthtecEthtec资产评估
Independence独立性
Leadenhall hasacted independentlyof Ethtec. Compensation payabletoLeadenhall isnotcontingent uponthe conclusion reachedin thisreport.
Leadenhall独立于Ethtec行使职能。对应支付给Leadenhall的补偿，本报告中得出的结论不起任何作用。
Qualifications资质
This reporthasbeenpreparedby:本报告是由以下人员编制：
◆ Dave Pearson, CA, CPA, CFA, CBV, MAppFin, Bcomm
◆ Richard Norris, BA(Hons), M.App.Fin,FCA,F.FINSIA
ProfessionalStandards专业标准
This report hasbeenpreparedin accordancewith APES 225Valuation Services, issuedbythe AccountingProcessional and EthicalStandards BoardLimited andthe InternationalValuations Standardsissued bythe InternationalValuation Standards Council.
本报告是根据会计学及道德标准委员会有限公司颁布的《APES225估价服务》以及国际评估准则理事会发布的《国际评估标准》编制的。
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