Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024?
Background: Currently (28.II.23), presidential elections in Russia are scheduled to be held on 17th of March, 2024.

This market will be resolved to:

YES -- if on 31st of December, 2024, 23:59 UTC Vladimir V. Putin is considered (by other russian officials) to be the President (more generally -- head of state) of Russian Federation.

NO -- the conditions in YES are met for a person other than Vladimir V. Putin.

N/A -- any other outcome 


Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?
Background: The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission.

Will this happen in 2024?
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.2
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024?
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.55
Superforecaster forecast: 0.5
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of August 2024?
Background: Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on August 31, 2024

Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to:

Technological singularity

Spontaneous combustion

Transmutation into a higher state of existence.

If there are any other circumstances that might resolve this No you are curious about feel free to ask in the comments.

Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service

Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year

Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday

April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead

Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |


Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will sports betting be legal in California and Texas by 2030?
Background: Must be able to place both an in-person and online sports bet legally in each state on January 1, 2030.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.27
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: 👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
Background: Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong. 

Does not impact profit rankings

Permanently open market, will not resolve.

Other Approval Ratings:

@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating 

@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb 

@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-d7689b01293f 

@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-da311ac4ea95 
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.3
Superforecaster forecast: 0.42
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
Background: Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Taylor Swift release Reputation (Taylor's Version) before the end of 2024?
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.5
Superforecaster forecast: 0.8
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the upcoming Minecraft movie get over a 6.0 on IMDB?
Background: 6.1 or above, in other words.

7.0 or above:

https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-g

6.5 or above:

https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-g-677bcc0666ba
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2030?
Background: Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esports#Olympic_Games_recognition

Can be either winter or summer olympics

@/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the-a9f2d028e827 

@/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the 
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.5
Superforecaster forecast: 0.03
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the next Agent 007 (after "No Time To Die") be black?
Background: With Daniel Craig saying goodbye to his role as James Bond, many fans of 007 are asking for changes for the franchise, so it can stay relevant in current times. One of such changes might have to do with who plays the British secret agent in future films of the franchise.

If 007 is confirmed to be played by a black actor or actress in the first 007 movie to be released after "No Time To Die", this market will be resolved as "Yes".


Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Doors of Stone, the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicle by Patrick Rothfuss, be released before 2025?
Background: The Kingkiller Chronicle is a fantasy trilogy by the American writer Patrick Rothfuss. The first two books, The Name of the Wind and The Wise Man's Fear, were released in 2007 and 2011. The books released in the series have sold over 10 million copies.

The trilogy's third installment has been long awaited, and many fans feel disillusioned after waiting for >11 years. 

This question resolves positively on the book's actual release date when it is available in stores and online shops. A pre-order date doesn't count.

Resolves to NO if the book is not released before January 1st, 2025. 
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.02
Superforecaster forecast: 0.03
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will an LLM co/author a NYT Bestseller in the next year?
Background: Appearing in the credits or acknowledgements (e.g. "written with loving support from my dear wife, GPT-4") is sufficient.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will an artificial intelligence system play a major artistic role in the 2024 Olympic opening ceremonies?
Background: Olympic ceremonies have often featured technologies in ways that have never been used at major events.  Augmented reality, drone swarms, and stadium floor projections are examples of breakthrough ways that technology was used artistically.  Will AI be featured in a similar role this July?

This market will resolve to YES if an artificial intelligence system is featured in a major artistic role during the 2024 Olympic opening cermonies.

The software must not be a rules-based determinstic system

The software must be actually featured in a noteworthy role during the ceremony, rather than just mentioned in passing or used off-camera

The software must be used artistically, not solely to serve a utilitarian purpose

The software must be LIVE, not in a prerecorded video

The software must be operating on its own, free from human control

Examples of YES resolutions:

Humanoid robots carry the Olympic flag under the Eiffel Tower

A segment is dedicated to French technology, narrated live by Mixtral 8x7B

An LLM serves as the DJ

Self-driving cars roar into the area where the torch will be lit and drive around the athletes

Insufficient examples:

A model produces closed captions for viewers (not artistic)

A self-driving car drives a dignitary to an event (not featured in the ceremony)

A video of robots juggling is played (not live)

A robot operated by a joystick outraces an Olympic champion (not autonomous)

Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.  It resolves to N/A if the ceremony is not held by August 31, 2024.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.2
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Background: I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
Background: I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2025?
Background: Resolution according to the "Usage share of all browsers" table in this wikipedia entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers

Related market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-157ad71d2da0)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will most Apple customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?
Background: Resolves YES if more than 50% of all customers who regularly use Apple technology report currently owning and using a device with visionOS at any point before January 1st, 2030. This market resolves according to official verified Apple user data, or if unavailable the most reliable media reporting and consumer reports. If visionOS changes name or is replaced or accompanied by another Apple VR operating system, all Apple VR systems count towards the 50% requirement.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?
Background: Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is a cofounder of a new company, with at least $500 million in funding, that declares it will attempt to train foundation models, aim to create AGI and compete with OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic. 

Note that the company must declare it intends to train SOTA AI models or otherwise be explicitly aiming to create AGI - a generic AI company would not count. 

(Getting this up fast, will clarify exact conditions as needed, suggestions welcome.)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025?
Background: Will an organization or government fund a project that construct an AI containment zone where we can safely create AGI and possibly Superintelligence? Some theorize that we can use AGI to independently generate candidate alignment procedures which we could verify safe using a combination of top scientists and the other AGIs in containment. 

https://chriscanal.substack.com/p/the-omega-protocol-another-manhattan

[link preview]
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Apple’s next iPhone (2024) include an on-device LLM “ChatBot”?
Background: I've seen rumors that Apple might be working on local on-device LLMs for iPhones. I wonder if this is true. The market will resolve "yes" if Apple's new device features an on-device conversational LLM. It would suffice if the LLM is a combination of on-device and cloud-based processing.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.9
Superforecaster forecast: 0.97
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.15
Superforecaster forecast: 0.1
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Ding Liren repeat as World Chess Champion?
Background: Yes if he successfully defends his title

No if he does not
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.3
Superforecaster forecast: 0.55
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?
Background: Resolves yes if Man City are found guilty of the charges AND receive any ONE of the following sporting punishments in the original verdict or worse (ignoring appeals):

A 20-point deduction in the same season (Juventus and Everton each got a 10 point deduction)

Stripped of any of their prior Premier League titles 

Suspension of their top players for at least 6 months

Relegation of any kind

Ban/expulsion from the Premier League for at least 6 months

I will extend the deadline as needed.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the U.S. win the gold medal in the Men's Basketball at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
Background: Not the 3x3 basketball, the regular basketball. 
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.83
Superforecaster forecast: 0.9
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Rafael Nadal win another Grand Slam before his retirement?
Background: Start date: Feb 7, end date: Rafa retires.

Will he win a GS again? 

I hope he does. Will update the close date if required.

If Rafa retires and comes out of retirement to win a GS, that doesnt count.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.03
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Lionel Messi retire before the end of 2024?
Background: Argentina skipper Lionel Messi denied rumours of his retirement post the World Cup win against France, saying he wishes to keep playing for his country.

(https://sportstar.thehindu.com/football/fifa-world-cup/news/messi-argentina-no-plan-to-retire-arg-vs-fra-world-cup-final-qatar-wc-2022/article66279720.ece#:~:text=for%20his%20country.-,Argentina%20skipper%20Lionel%20Messi%20denied%20rumours%20of%20his%20retirement%20post,TyC%20Sports%20after%20the%20match.)
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.025
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Sergio Perez finish 2nd or higher in the Drivers Championship?
Background: [THIS IS FOR THE 2024 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP]

Resolves YES if Sergio Perez finishes in 2nd place or wins the World Drivers Championship in 2024, either by season end, or when his position becomes mathematically impossible to challenge.

If Sergio Perez is replaced mid-season/retires or is otherwise no longer a driver on the grid the market will continue, using his final points in the standings prior to his leaving for the market.

If Perez never starts the 2024 season (eg. retires between 2023 season end, and the first 2024 race) the market will resolve N/A. As soon as Perez participates in a Grand Prix practice session, the market will count his participation in the season.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.05
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?
Background: [This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?
Background: Here's the video: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.6
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?
Background: Resolves according to this poll

(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenWatts/does-elon-musk-deserve-100-billion)
Take the total vote on "No", divided by the total number of voters on the market, to compute the % voted on "No".

Market Resolves Yes if the % voted on "No" is larger than 70% at the end of 2024
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.8
Superforecaster forecast: 0.5
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Background: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Update 2023-12-06:
I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:


This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
Background: Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Binance collapse before the end of 2024?
Background: Below are some examples (but by no means exhaustive) that would qualify as collapse:

No withdrawals for 14 days

BNB market cap below $1B (unless it is phased out as planned by the company) for >14 days

Files for bankruptcy
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
Background: Clarification:

Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$275 ($275.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.

For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
Background: If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will any of the four main characters of Severance die in season 2?
Background: Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving

Death between season 1 and 2 also counts, assuming season 2 takes place after 1.

Specifically medical death (brain death, no heartbeat, etc). 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Background: See:

https://lifeview.com

https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection

Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions. 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?
Background: Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent "alive" counts.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Background: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

I won't bet in this market.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?
Background: Born December 7, 1928
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Background: Twitter threads

https://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602

https://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241

https://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136

First tweet of last thread: "Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects".

Name of the paper "Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996

Resolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. "Conclusive" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.

Resolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.

Resolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.

I won't trade in this market for objectivity.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0