Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Background: 
    <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/microsoft-research-asia/overview/" target="_blank">Microsoft Research Lab Asia</a> (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was moving some of its top AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research lab in Vancouver that would be organizationally aligned with MSR Asia (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d21d2f85-7531-4536-bcce-8ca38620fe55" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). This followed a decision in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, the stripped-down version of the LinkedIn app that remained in China after LinkedIn decided to pull out of the country in 2021 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/linkedin-cut-716-jobs-phase-out-china-local-jobs-app-2023-05-09/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). However, Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has denied claims that Microsoft is planning to close their lab in China saying, “There has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/technology/microsoft-china-ai-lab.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>).
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as "Yes" if Microsoft announces in a press release, statement by Microsoft executives, or other official communication that it is closing Microsoft Research Asia or moving the research lab to another country. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024, but the closure or relocation does not need to be effected by that date. The relocation of some MSR Asia staff without the closing of offices or cessation of operations in China will not be sufficient for resolution.</div><div><br></div>
  
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Background: 
    
    <p>Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/life-sparking-gas-strengthens-evidence-that-enceladus-a-moon-of-saturn-could-be-habitable-180983445/" target="_blank">Smithsonian Magazine</a>). To be considered “potentially habitable”, a planet must be up to 2.5 times the size of the Earth or up to 10 times Earth’s mass and orbit the right distance from its star for liquid water to possibly be present (<a href="https://phl.upr.edu/hwc" target="_blank">Planetary Habitability Laboratory</a>).
    
  </p><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>As of 1 February 2024, the <a href="https://phl.upr.edu/hwc" target="_blank">Habitable Worlds Catalog</a> identified 69 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets, with five of them added to the list in 2023. This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the Habitable Worlds Catalog adds 5 or more new potentially habitable worlds to the list (i.e., the sum of their conservative and optimistic samples) discovered on or before 31 December 2024. To allow for planets discovered late in the year to be added to the catalog, this question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025.</div>
  
  
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.7
Superforecaster forecast: 0.7
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Background: 
    
    
    Market capitalization (or “market cap”) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company’s shares on the open market (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/market-cap" target="_blank">Fidelity</a>). A global ranking of companies by market capitalization is available on <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a>. 
    
  <div><br></div><div>Nvidia has become an essential player in artificial intelligence, as the technologies the company produces underpin many of the major advancements and applications of AI (<a href="https://www.plus500.com/en/instruments/nvda/nvidia-artificial-intelligence-contributions~2" target="_blank">Plus500</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2023/03/29/why-nvidia-matters-for-the-future-of-ai/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). The demand for AI chips has skyrocketed Nvidia’s value in recent months, leading it to briefly become the world’s largest company by market cap in June 2024, before falling back to third behind Microsoft and Apple (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/03/nvidia-just-became-the-largest-company-on-the-stoc/" target="_blank">The Motley Fool</a>). </div><div><br></div><div>Many expect the value of Nvidia to continue to rise, with some predicting market caps as high as $5 trillion by 2026 or $10 trillion by 2030 (<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/19/prediction-nvidia-five-trillion-generative-ai/" target="_blank">The Motley Fool</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2024/06/07/prediction-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). However, others have suggested that we may be in an AI bubble and that its costs and unclear value could cause Nvidia’s value to fall back to earth (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nvidia-investors-can-learn-from-the-roaring-1920s-and-the-radio-bubble-206aaf79" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stocks-bubble-james-ferguson-intel-cisco-chatgpt-2024-7" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved by comparing market capitalizations on <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a> on 31 May 2025. Note that 31 May 2025 is a Saturday, so market caps will be based on the end-of-day stock prices on 30 May 2025.</div>
  
  
  
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Ohio in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will a Democrat win Washington US Senate Election?
Background: United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senatorial elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Washington US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: [Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.45
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Washington DC Presidential Election?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate from neither the Democratic nor Republican parties wins the popular vote in Washington DC in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.9
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a Democrat win Vermont Governor Election?
Background: United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Gubernatorial elections are presently scheduled for 11 states and 2 territories.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.35
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: [Single Market] Will Joe Rogan win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Rogan wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.6
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Note: An update may be made to this market to allow for early expiration if the candidate is definitively no longer in contention for the presidency.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Massachusetts Presidential Election?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate from neither the Democratic nor Republican parties wins the popular vote in Massachusetts in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.95
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will TOSHI reach $1b first?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if TOSHI (https://dexscreener.com/base/0x4b0aaf3ebb163dd45f663b38b6d93f6093ebc2d3) reaches $1b FDV before all other cat memecoins. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is April 7, 2024, 12:00 AM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply. 

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?
Background: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.

If there is a rate cut at any time within 2024, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: TikTok sale announced before August?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by ByteDance or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of TikTok.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ByteDance. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will POPCAT reach $1b first?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if POPCAT (https://dexscreener.com/solana/frhb8l7y9qq41qzxyltc2nw8an1rjfllxrf2x9rwllmo) reaches $1b FDV before all other cat memecoins. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is April 7, 2024, 12:00 AM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply. 

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.99
Superforecaster forecast: 1
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?
Background: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 1 cut of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 1 rate cut by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 2 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will another cat memecoin reach $1b first?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a cat memecoin other than HOBBES, Keycat, POPCAT, Shark Cat, MEW, and TOSHI reaches $1b before they do. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is April 7, 2024, 12:00 AM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply. 

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.

If no cat memecoin reaches $1b between Apr 7 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes", and all other markets in the group will resolve to "No."
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.75
Superforecaster forecast: 0.6
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between Feb 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $20-25b one day after launch?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Eigenlayer's token is between $20,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $25,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Eigenlayer doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Russian nuke in space in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between May 29, 12:00 PM ET and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on August 31, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours.

This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by North Korea, South Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between May 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Is John McAfee alive?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0