Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?
Background: The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).

In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and "at the jockey's discretion" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).

A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for "overuse of the whip" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).

The Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy "would not be surprised" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.

Racing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). 

[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have "minimal impact", whipping has been a "vital tool of the sport since its inception" and whipping allows for a horse to be "fully tested".
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?
Background: Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:

> Just wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?


As part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked "Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?". The answer given was "No".
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Background: In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/" target="_blank">CBS</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-signs-law-allows-2-more-terms-d9acdada71b75c3daeafb389782fed4b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/putin-and-russias-future" target="_blank">Wilson Center</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.</div>
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Background: The chief of Myanmar’s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e" target="_blank">AP News</a>). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-02/myanmar-census-will-increase-surveillance-of-junta-opponents/102923250" target="_blank">ABC Australia</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading: </b></div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election" target="_blank">Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election</a> (Center for Strategic and International Studies) </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/census-10242023154556.html" target="_blank">Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls</a> (Radio Free Asia)</li>
</ul><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.</div><div><br></div>
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.01
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Background: 
    The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA”, or “Iran nuclear deal”) is an agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council–China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States–plus Germany) that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">CFR</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div>After the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, Iran breached multiple limits set by the agreement (<a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/restoring-jcpoas-nuclear-limits" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds force, prompted Iran to further reduce compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/05/793814276/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-limitations-in-wake-of-soleimani-killing" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/05/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-killing-soleimani-094197" target="_blank">Politico</a>). While Iran has not officially withdrawn from the JCPOA, it has stopped the implementation of its nuclear-related commitments and significantly limited monitoring of its nuclear-related facilities (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/06/gov2023-24.pdf" target="_blank">IAEA GOV/2023/24</a>). The United States and Iran had been in discussions to restore both parties to full compliance with the deal, but negotiations appear to have stalled (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/what-exactly-happened-to-the-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-says-no-nuclear-deal-on-table-with-iran/7158920.html" target="_blank">VOA</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div> This question will be resolved using news media reports and announcements from the Iranian government that Iran is withdrawing from the JCPOA. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024 and indicate that Iran is leaving the JCPOA, not just ignoring limits or commitments under the deal. Leaving the JCPOA as part of signing a new nuclear deal with countries party to the JCPOA will <b>not</b> count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
  
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Background: 
    
    
    
    
    Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-clinches-nomination-national-election-third-term/" target="_blank">CBS</a>). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/5/21/venezuelas-maduro-wins-presidential-vote-boycotted-by-opposition" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/20/americas/venezuela-elections/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/could-be-last-shot-restore-democracy-venezuela" target="_blank">CSIS</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-repression-maduro-machado-35d063ba9ba3e08399c02cb572d78e5b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). If re-elected, Maduro’s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (<a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-02-07/venezuelas-ruling-party-is-preparing-this-years-electoral-calendar-to-win-the-presidency-by-hook-or-by-crook.html" target="_blank">El País</a>).
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless he voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President before 11 January 2025, even if he is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.</div>
  
  
  
  
  
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.55
Superforecaster forecast: 0.91
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Background: 
    The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen" target="_blank">CFR</a>). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military coalition, while the Houthi movement has close ties to Iran and Hezbollah (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/yemen-crisis" target="_blank">CFR</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-are-the-houthis-and-why-are-we-at-war-with-them/" target="_blank">Brookings</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div>In April 2022, the United Nations negotiated a ceasefire between the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/world/middleeast/yemen-cease-fire.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>). The ceasefire was originally intended to last two months, but was extended twice before being allowed to lapse in October 2022 (<a href="https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/can-the-third-time-be-the-charm-for-yemen-6125/" target="_blank">IPS Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-houthis-after-the-yemeni-cease-fire/" target="_blank">Brookings</a>). Following Hamas’ October 2023 attack, there are now concerns that the war between Hamas and Israel could push the Houthis closer to Iran and away from a new ceasefire agreement with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen (<a href="https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/why-hamas-israel-war-can-be-a-turning-point-for-yemens-houthis-149895" target="_blank">ISPI</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using credible, open source reports that Yemen and the Houthi movement have signed a ceasefire. For the question to resolve “yes”, the ceasefire must be signed on or before 31 December 2024, last at least six months, and still be in effect on 31 December 2024. If a ceasefire is agreed upon, this question will be resolved either on 1 January 2025 or six months after the agreement is reached, whichever is later. A ceasefire originally intended to last less than six months but is extended to last longer than six months and lasts through the end of 2024 will still count towards resolution. </div><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/iran-influence-vnsa" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Influence%20on%20VNSAs" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
  
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.2
Superforecaster forecast: 0.02
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Background: 
    
    
    
    
    <p>Nuclear weapons require 90% or higher enriched uranium (<a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/uranium-enrichment-for-peace-or-for-weapons/" target="_blank">Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation</a>). Iran promised to curtail uranium enrichment to less than 4% as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”), but it stepped back from these commitments in retaliation for attacks on Iranian leaders and the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/03/timeline-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-program-2018" target="_blank">U.S. Institute of Peace</a>). Following the U.S.' withdrawal, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran remained participants in the JCPOA. </p><p>Although Iran has increasingly limited monitoring and verification of its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to report on its JCPOA commitments (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-iran-restricts-iaea-access-main-enrichment-plant-after-attack-2021-07-01/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/10/un-agency-iran-nuclear-probe-00066350" target="_blank">Politico</a>). In February of 2023, it reported that it had found particles containing up to 83.7% enriched uranium (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/03/gov2023-8.pdf" target="_blank">IAEA</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753" target="_blank">NBC</a>).
    
  </p><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>The question will be resolved based on IAEA reports about Iran’s nuclear program, which are posted <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran/iaea-and-iran-iaea-board-reports" target="_blank">here</a>. The IAEA report must indicate that the IAEA found uranium particles containing 90% or more U-235 at an Iranian nuclear facility.  </div><p></p><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0
Superforecaster forecast: 0.02
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Background: 
    A cyberattack disrupted services at around 70 percent of Iran’s fuel stations in mid-December 2023 (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/18/iran-says-cyberattack-disrupts-petrol-stations-across-country" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). A group linked to Israel called Predatory Sparrow has publicly taken credit for the disruption. Israel and Iran have a long history of cyberattacks between them, resulting in tension that could be aggravated by the Israel-Palestine conflict (<a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-cybersecurity/2023/10/16/how-irans-ominous-threats-could-take-on-cyber-life-00121679" target="_blank">Politico</a>). Predatory Sparrow previously took credit for a similar cyberattack in 2021, but the Iranian government blamed an unnamed “state actor” (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-59062907" target="_blank">BBC</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as "Yes" if before 1 March 2025, the Iranian government, Iranian state media, or other reputable sources report that Iran has been affected by cyber attack targeting critical infrastructure or if the group that makes such an attack publicly takes credit for it. The <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105806" target="_blank">U.S. GAO</a> identified the following sectors as critical infrastructure that could be vulnerable to cyberattacks:</div><div><br></div><ul>
<li>Chemical</li>
<li>Commercial facilities</li>
<li>Communications</li>
<li>Critical manufacturing</li>
<li>Dams</li>
<li>Defense industrial base</li>
<li>Emergency services</li>
<li>Energy</li>
<li>Financial services</li>
<li>Food and agriculture</li>
<li>Government facilities</li>
<li>Healthcare and public health</li>
<li>Information technology</li>
<li>Nuclear reactors, materials, and waste</li>
<li>Transportation systems</li>
<li>Water and wastewater systems</li>
</ul>
  
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.6
Superforecaster forecast: 0.68
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Background: 
    
    
  
    Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Network World</a>, <a href="https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world’s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards Open RAN efforts in the past (<a href="https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says" target="_blank">Light Reading</a>, <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/" target="_blank">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support Open RAN were forthcoming (<a href="https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/" target="_blank">Telecom TV</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Huawei sells or announces a commercial Open RAN equipment offering before 1 January 2027. Announcements about research plans or trials of Open RAN equipment will not count.</div>
  
  
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Background: 
    
    
    The <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/about" target="_blank">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program" target="_blank">O-RAN Certificate</a> from one of O-RAN’s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230817436719/en/O-RAN-ALLIANCE-Welcomes-Four-New-OTICs-In-North-America" target="_blank">Business Wire</a>). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.<br><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using the <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program" target="_blank">O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue</a>. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:</div><ul>
<li>“Date of issued certificate” must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31</li>
<li>“Type” must be “Certificate”</li>
<li>“OTIC name” must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list" target="_blank">here</a>
</li>
</ul><div>In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the “Date of issued certificate” listed in the catalog.</div><div><br></div>
  
  
  
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.7
Superforecaster forecast: 0.56
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0