Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?
Background: Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?
Background: (Inspired by 2004’s “I, Robot” starring Will Smith.)

Will something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035?

For the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie—the “uprising” can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a “yes.” 

Essentially:

1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks

2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area

3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week)

4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours

5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. 

Examples:

5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners’ short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity’s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation).

5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners’ short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories.

5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners’ short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity’s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output).

Any of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a “yes.”

Movie for context:

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Background: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Background: This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.

This question is answered "No" if there is:

no military conflict between the two parties

a limited military conflict without triggering a major war

On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.

"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one

The year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to “ensure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027”, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, “intelligentised” warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a “new milestone”. “If realised, the PLA’s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,” it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson’s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.

[...]
One person familiar with the administration’s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.

https://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?
Background: "Direct combat operations" means a sustained combat effort; special operations don't count.

Will resolve at end of current conflict, or extend if conflict doesn't end by time of closure.

Will resolve if confirmed by reliable media source (Reuters, BBC, the AP, etc.)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?
Background: I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?
Background: Legal troubles generally refer to situations where an individual or entity faces legal challenges or actions due to alleged violations of laws or regulations. This can encompass a variety of scenarios, including:

1. Criminal Charges

2. Civil Lawsuits

3. Regulatory Actions

4. Investigations

5. Legal Notices and Cease-and-Desist Letters

6. Arbitration and Mediation

In each of these scenarios, the individual or entity typically needs to engage with the legal system, which can involve hiring legal representation, responding to legal actions, appearing in court, or complying with legal decisions and judgments.

Will resolve by the end of 2024 based on information available from credible news sources. 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Drake be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2028?
Background: Must be charged indicted and found guilty of at least one crime even if it is not the original one he is charged with

@/strutheo/will-drake-be-formally-charged-with 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will OpenAI be the target and victim of a major cyber attack in 2024?
Background: Includes major DDOS attacks.

Resolves YES if:

Before January 1, 2025: Evidence emerges that OpenAI was the intended target and victim of a successful and significant cyber attack. "Successful" and "significant" as determined by relevant authorities and general consensus. DDOS attacks only count if they successfully create a near total outage that lasts for at least 12 hours. Market will resolve when relevant authorities have reached conclusions on any evidence that emerged before 2025.

Resolves NO otherwise.

I will not be participating in this market.

Edit 01/01/2024: Added "and victim" to title to align with description and resolution criteria.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
Background: 2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.8
Superforecaster forecast: 0.96
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
Background: Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.4
Superforecaster forecast: 0.24
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine?
Background: It also counts as YES if an event is moved to a venue other than the Seine river ahead of time because of water quality concerns.

Background:

Seine River events scrapped again, renewing doubts over Paris Olympics plan

Paris Olympics promises Seine clean-up after pollution spoils triathlon | Financial Times
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.2
Superforecaster forecast: 0.35
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
Background: This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. 

The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.

The question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.

This question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.
Source: manifold
Public human forecast: 0.4
Superforecaster forecast: 0.61
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?
Background: The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into clinical psychology is seen as a promising advancement that could revolutionize diagnostic accuracy and efficiency. This question explores whether, by December 31, 2028, the use of AI tools will be recognized as best practice in the field of clinical psychology. The potential for AI to improve healthcare outcomes is a subject of significant interest and research.

Relevant links:

<https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/centaurs-and-cyborgs-on-the-jagged?utm_source=profile&amp;utm_medium=reader2>

<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37423238/>

<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37353693/>

<https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10132410/>
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.41
Superforecaster forecast: 0.15
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
Background: [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects.  However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.

Semaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.

Oral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?
Background: <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. 

However, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.

Scientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.

Hortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),

> “Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology," Dodo says. "In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S."
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.43
Superforecaster forecast: 0.3
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.8
Superforecaster forecast: 0.15
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?
Background: As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indicate transmission between mammals](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals).

In October 2022, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 occurred in farmed mink in Spain. A January 19 2023 paper indicates the strain had evolved mutations associated with infecting mammalian cells. The strain appeared to have [high transmissibility between mink](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001 ).

There is also recent evidence of possible transmission [between seals](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread).

This raises concerns of H5Nx strains capable of human-to-human transmission with an R0 above 1, which could cause a pandemic.

Recent zoonotic viruses with respiratory transmission have generally been controlled before reaching 10,000 cases (eg SARS-1 and MERS) or reached uncontrolled worldwide spread with over 500,000 cases (eg Covid-19 and 2009 H1N1 swine flu).
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
Background: *Related Questions on Metaculus:*

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)

* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)

* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)

* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)

----

As stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):

>"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
Background: [New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. 


We ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange [conditional on New START being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) or conditional it not being renewed/replaced in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of "third variables" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Background: According to the ISW: 

> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent

[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.

[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)

> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a "huge mobilization reserve" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.
> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.

As of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).


Related Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.3
Superforecaster forecast: 0.05
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
Background: In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:

In 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.

In January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?
Background: Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the  Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.  

China and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. 

For further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0