Question: Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Background: 
    
    
    
    
    
    
    On 24 November 2023, a four-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-11-24-2023-172256dd593189f7b37f7c62f4739c6b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). This deal was later extended until 1 December 2023 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67542209" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-776021" target="_blank">Jerusalem Post</a>).<div><br></div><div>On 19 June 2008, Israel and Hamas agreed to a six-month ceasefire that lasted until six Hamas militants were killed in an IDF operation in November that year (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20mideast.html?" target="_blank">New York Times</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>For this question to be resolved as “Yes”, Israel and Hamas must, before 1 December 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza, and the agreement must be in effect continuously for 30 days. </div><div><br></div><div>If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement. If there is a violation of the agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, but the violence stops and both sides return to the agreement, the count will be restarted and the question will be resolved 30 days from the date both parties return to the agreement, provided there are no further interruptions. Attacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.</div><div><br></div><div>If an agreement is signed before 1 December 2024, but does not go into effect until or after 1 December 2024, the question will be resolved as “Yes” if the ceasefire goes into effect and remains in effect for at least 30 days. Otherwise, the question will be resolved as “No”.</div><div><br></div><div>If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this <b>will</b> be considered "an agreed-upon pause" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect. A one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party <b>will</b> <b>not</b> be considered "an agreed-upon pause" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution. </div><div><br></div>
  
  <div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/iran-influence-vnsa" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Influence%20on%20VNSAs" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
  
  
  
  
  
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.4
Superforecaster forecast: 0.25
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0