Question: Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Background: Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Network World</a>, <a href="https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world’s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards open RAN efforts in the past (<a href="https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says" target="_blank">Light Reading</a>, <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/" target="_blank">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support open RAN were forthcoming (<a href="https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/" target="_blank">Telecom TV</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div>The <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/about" target="_blank">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization made up of mobile network operators, vendors, and academic and research institutions that is working to move the industry towards open RAN architecture. Huawei is not a member of O-RAN, despite the fact that rival telecom equipment manufacturers Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE, as well as China’s major mobile network operators are all members of the Alliance (<a href="https://www.o-ran.org/membership" target="_blank">O-RAN Membership</a>). Some view O-RAN as a U.S.-backed effort to tackle Huawei’s dominance in the industry but others have noted that Chinese influence within O-RAN may scupper these efforts (<a href="https://www.gizchina.com/2024/03/19/breaking-down-operation-o-ran-how-the-us-aims-to-level-the-playing-field-against-huawei/" target="_blank">GizChina</a>, <a href="https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220113PD207/5g-o-ran-china-telecom-service_-infrastructure.html" target="_blank">DigiTimes</a>, <a href="https://ecipe.org/blog/chinas-participation-o-ran/" target="_blank">ECIPE</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments. Examples of past announcements of other organizations collaborating with O-RAN include O-RAN’s collaborations with <a href="https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-and-o-ran-alliance-broaden-cooperative-efforts/" target="_blank">ATIS</a>, <a href="https://www.smallcellforum.org/press-releases/scf-and-oran-alliance/" target="_blank">SCF</a>, and the <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200225005180/en/The-O-RAN-Alliance-and-the-Telecom-Infra-Project-TIP-Reach-New-Level-of-Collaboration-for-Open-Radio-Access-Networks" target="_blank">Telecom Infra Project</a>. Statements by Huawei that they intend to explore open RAN projects unrelated to the O-RAN Alliance will not count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div>
Source: infer
Public human forecast: 0.2
Superforecaster forecast: 0.135
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0