Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?
Background: [Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_(Honduras)) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. 

The project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.

According to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.

Próspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.

Predict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?
Background: "Deepfakes" or "Deep fakes" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.

In May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam cryptocurrency went viral on social media, to which Elon [replied on Twitter "Yikes. Def not me."](https://decrypt.co/101365/deepfake-video-elon-musk-crypto-scam-goes-viral).  In June 2022, [Google banned deepfake-generate AI from its Colab tool](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/2328459/?guccounter=1). In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).

As of May 2023, no major political scandal has erupted due to a particular deepfake successfully convincing a large block of voters that a politician did or said something they didn't actually do.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.35
Superforecaster forecast: 0.1
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025?
Background: As of May 2024, it has been almost 20 years since the 9/11 Commission [recommended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_ID_Act) federal standards for identification, which resulted in the enactment of the controversial REAL ID Act in 2005. According to the 9/11 Commission's [report](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pdf) on page 390:

>At many entry points to vulnerable facilities, including gates for boarding aircraft, sources of identification are the last opportunity to ensure that people are who they say they are and to check
whether they are terrorists.

On the other hand, opponents such as security expert Bruce Schneier [have argued](https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2007/03/real-id_costs_and_be.html) that REAL ID imposes significant costs for little benefit, as well as introducing new vulnerabilities. The Electronic Frontier Foundation [has said](https://www.eff.org/issues/real-id) that REAL ID:

>. . . requires a vast national database linking all of the ID records together. Once the IDs and database are in place their uses will inevitably expand to facilitate a wide range of surveillance activities.

Full implementation of the law has been slow, with some states such as Maine, South Carolina and Pennsylvania [refusing to comply](https://iapp.org/news/a/why-some-states-wont-comply-with-real-id-requirements/). Originally set for May 11, 2008, full implementation of REAL ID was at first delayed to December 31, 2009 and then has had a series of delays after that. Finally on December 5, 2022, DHS [announced](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2022/12/05/dhs-announces-extension-real-id-full-enforcement-deadline) the latest extension, of 24 months, for the 50 US states to bring their driver's licenses and ID cards into compliance with the Act.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the US and the EU (or one of its member states) cut diplomatic ties before 2051?
Background: The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the [EU parliament liaison office in Washington](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedstates/en/eu-us-relations) phrases it:

> Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to 1953. The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. The EU and U.S. are the biggest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade, play the leading roles in international political relations, and whatever one says matters a great deal, not only to the other, but to much of the rest of the world.

A strong diplomatic transatlantic relationship between the EU and the US has the potential to shape much of the global balance of power, as it has during the early 21st century. Similarly, a deteriorating of this relationship brings with it substantial geopolitical risks in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world. 

One severe risk of a breakdown of transatlantic relations is the cutting of diplomatic ties. Diplomatic ties are typically cut in response to serious diplomatic transgressions or in cases of war, such as when the US severed diplomatic relations with Germany in [1917](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2212362) or in the ongoing relationships with [Iran and Syria](https://www.sporcle.com/blog/2019/09/what-countries-have-no-diplomatic-relations-with-the-us/).
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.4
Superforecaster forecast: 0.015
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?
Background: [A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. 

Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" with "Leave," and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with "Remain." The "Leave" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.

However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for "Remain."](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)

The fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.09
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?
Background: *Related Question on Metaculus:*

* [Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison before June 30, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/) *[closed]*

----

Former US President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has been involved in a large number of [lawsuits and legal investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump), either personally or in connection to his businesses.  As President, Trump was investigated by the US Department of Justice in the [Mueller Investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%932019)).  Trump was impeached (but not convicted) by US congress twice, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump) and later [in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump).  Trump's involvement in the January 6 2021 [attack on the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_States_Capitol_attack) is the subject of [an investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Select_Committee_on_the_January_6_Attack) in the US House which is ongoing as of April 2022.

Trump has publicly expressed his intention of running for president in 2024 multiple times, [saying in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), "You had a president that always put America first [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before."
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?
Background: The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.

Franchises that already are at the number 2: "Half Life 2", "Portal 2",
"Left 4 Dead 2", "Team Fortress 2" and "Dota 2".
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?
Background: American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.

[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:

>In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.

>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: "Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now." In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still "several years from finishing" the volume.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.5
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?
Background: [Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?
Background: Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.

Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.

Both Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.

This question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
Background: On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,

> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.

For this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,

> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler "Who" did "What" to "Whom", to "Why" and "How" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?
Background: *The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.

The most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years. 

As of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's "[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)" nor Patrick Rothfuss's "[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.

Who will publish first?
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.6
Superforecaster forecast: 0.4
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?
Background: Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):

>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?
Background: The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.

At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).

The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?

*Related questions*

* [How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)
* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.9
Superforecaster forecast: 0.71
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?
Background: [As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be a Super Bowl 100 before 2076?
Background: The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the [most watched television programs in American history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#United_States), all since 2011.

The most recent Super Bowl was #58, and while it seems like this media juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down, things may change over the decades. The 100th Super Bowl would be played, assuming no schedule changes, in 2067, but many things might change in the next 43 years. On-field safety might be the wedge that kills the popularity of the NFL, or new players may not be good enough to command media attention, or maybe it quietly fades in popularity with no real cause.

Will there be a 100th Super Bowl?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Andy Carlile's 7:10 BTG Nürburgring Nordschleife motorcycle laptime be beaten before 2030?
Background: [Video of 7:10 lap](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc9cGasgsA)

The Nürburgring Nordschleife is a historic racing track in Germany, famous for its length (19.1 km in BTG configuration) and difficulty. The track features over 150 corners, 1000 feet of elevation change, and few modern safety features, such as runoff area. It is well known among motorsports enthusiasts and is used by automakers for testing. For part of the year the track is open to road legal vehicles driven by the general public--so-called "Touristenfahren." Andy Carlile (sometimes spelled Carlisle) is known for setting the fastest motorcycle lap time on this track in BTG configuration in 2012, clocking in at 7:10 on a road-legal Yamaha YZF-R1. This record has stood for over 11 years as of early 2024. BTG is short for bridge-to-gantry, the partial track configuration used during Touristenfahren, which omits part of the main straight.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.3
Superforecaster forecast: 0.26
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0