Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.

If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Australian rapper and model Iggy Azalea is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.

This market will resolve to "No" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 16 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: James Norton announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if James Norton is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.8
Superforecaster forecast: 0.07
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Deadpool 3' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Damson Idris is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.05
Superforecaster forecast: 0.02
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend?
Background: This is a market on how much 'Deadpool & Wolverine' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 26 - July 28) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Deadpool & Wolverine' (2024) grosses between $110,000,000 (inclusive) and $130,000,000 (exclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo numbers under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend?
Background: This is a market on how much 'Deadpool & Wolverine' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 26 - July 28) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Deadpool & Wolverine' (2024) grosses between $130,000,000 (inclusive) and $150,000,000 (exclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo numbers under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Dune: Part 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tom Hardy is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Joker: Folie à Deux' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: No Eigenlayer token launch in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eigenlayer does not launch a token between April 3, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Eigenlayer team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.02
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.5
Superforecaster forecast: 0.126
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.25
Superforecaster forecast: 0.46
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are definitively proven between October 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are NOT definitively proven in 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

This market may not resolve to 'Yes' until December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET has passed and Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is not definitively proven.

The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets.. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.95
Superforecaster forecast: 1
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Eigenlayer's token is less than $10,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Eigenlayer doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Tesla Robotaxi unveiling delayed?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla's unveiling of Robotaxi is delayed until after August 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve immediately upon the announcement of a delay.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk and their official representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.78
Superforecaster forecast: 1
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Sony doesn't release Playstation 5 Pro in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sony does not officially release the PlayStation 5 Pro in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Sony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Background: This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name between 21 and 25 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names between 21 and 25 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.8
Superforecaster forecast: 0.37
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.75
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Background: This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name fewer than 16 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names fewer than 16 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If 16 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "No" immediately. 

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.05
Superforecaster forecast: 0.25
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Background: This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name more than 25 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names more than 25 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.3
Superforecaster forecast: 0.25
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Background: This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name between 16 and 20 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names between 16 and 20 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If 21 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.75
Superforecaster forecast: 0.17
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Belichick head coach the Eagles in the 2024-25 NFL season?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Belichick is announced as head coach for the Philadelphia Eagles before any other NFL team in the 2024-25 NFL season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Bill Belichick is announced as head coach for any other NFL team or doesn't sign to head coach at all in the 2024-25 NFL season by the start of the first game of the regular season, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL, any signing NFL team, and/or Bill Belichick and his official representative(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Public human forecast: 0.03
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Belichick head coach the Chargers in the 2024-25 NFL season?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Belichick is announced as head coach for the Los Angeles Chargers before any other NFL team in the 2024-25 NFL season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Bill Belichick is announced as head coach for any other NFL team or doesn't sign to head coach at all in the 2024-25 NFL season by the start of the first game of the regular season, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL, any signing NFL team, and/or Bill Belichick and his official representative(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0