Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
Background: As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:

* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) caused widespread fuel shortages in the eastern United States. The attack, which was carried out by a group called DarkSide, forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down its operations for several days.

* In August 2022, a ransomware attack took down [many different parts of England's National Health Service](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/11/nhs-ransomware-attack-what-happened-and-how-bad-is-it) that led to system outages for several weeks.

* In Oct 2022, a DDOS attack [took down several US airline websites](https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/), and was attributed to Killnet, a pro-Russian hacker group.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.03
Superforecaster forecast: 0
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Background: A [tsunami](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tsunami.html) is a wave or series of waves generated by the displacement of water from an energetic event such as an earthquake. Tsunamis can be enormously destructive and cause mass casualty events; the deadliest documented tsunami, in the Indian Ocean on 26 December, 2004, killed more than 200,000 people.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.08
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?
Background: Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.

[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.

Note: I am using "DNA data", "genomics data", "genetic data" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?
Background: [According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone)
>The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). 

Most recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2.  Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. 

See also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?
Background: Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human health, and vegetation productivity. Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation. Its impact on climate change over [20 years is 86 times greater than CO2 and over a 100-year period it is 28 times greater](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane). Reducing methane emissions can have positive effects on the climate, crop yields, and human health. According to the [Climate & Clean Air Coalition](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane): 

> Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown as a result of human activities related to agriculture, including rice cultivation and ruminant livestock; coal mining; oil and gas production and distribution; biomass burning; and municipal waste landfilling. Emissions are projected to continue to increase by 2030 unless immediate action is taken.

> Emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector could be reduced by over 65% by preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution, recovering and using gas at the production stage, and by pre-mine degasification and recovery of methane during coal mining.

This potential reduction of emissions by increases of efficiency is highlighted by a [report by the IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview), claiming that “[i]f all countries were to perform as well as Norway, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%”. The most efficient country is Norway, which emits almost 0 kg of methane per GJ compared to Russia’s 0.29. 

Below is the data from 2022 [IEA report](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) on methane emissions from the energy sector by sector and year. For the year 2021, the total methane emissions from the energy sector were 135.2 Mt

| Year | Oil (Mt)| Natural gas (Mt)| Coal (Mt)| Bioenergy (Mt)| Total (Mt)|
| ---- | --- | -----------| ---- | --------- | ----- |
| 2000 | 43.9| 22.3       | 23.9 | 9.7       | 99.8  |
| 2005 | 47.9| 26.3       | 31.9 | 10.1      | 116.2 |
| 2010 | 46.4| 29.8       | 39.7 | 10.4      | 126.3 |
| 2015 | 46.5| 33.9       | 42.7 | 10.1      | 133.2 |
| 2019 | 45.9| 39.7       | 43.4 | 9.1       | 138.1 |
| 2020 | 41.2| 38.5       | 41.9 | 9.1       | 130.7 |
| 2021 | 42.9| 39.6       | 43.6 | 9.1       | **135.2** |

Against the backdrop of projected total emissions increase until 2030, understanding the trajectory of global methane emissions remains crucial due to its potential to reduce emissions without sacrificing energy output and the significant impact of methane emissions on climate change.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?
Background: Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the *Fusarium* clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as *the* banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).

However, it appears [another *Fusarium* rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. 

There are efforts under way to deal with *Fusarium*, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Bayer cease selling all Roundup products, or substantially reformulate all Roundup products in the United States before 2040?
Background: Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. [Glyphosate](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/glyphosate) is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup is the isopropylamine salt of glyphosate. Another ingredient of Roundup is the surfactant POEA (polyethoxylated tallow amine).

Some [studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6322310/
) and legal cases have suggested a link between glyphosate and [harmful health effects](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5515989/
), such as cancer, while others claim its safety at approved usage levels. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently considers glyphosate safe when used correctly, but public concern and ongoing research may influence future assessments and policy decisions.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?
Background: [According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.

[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)

This question asks a simpler and less strict question than [its companion](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10176/stringent-anti-solar-geo-engng-pact-by-2026/); whether there will be *any* pact against solar geoengineering, even if it doesn't meet the [full 5 core commitments and measures](https://www.solargeoeng.org/non-use-agreement/) of the proposed Agreement.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
Background: On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fourth prediction,

> In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 1
Superforecaster forecast: 0.19
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?
Background: The Internet Archive maintains a digital lending library that lends out [digital copies of books it has in its physical possession](https://archive.org/details/inlibrary), such that one physical copy corresponds to one digital copy for lending.

During the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial lockdowns in 2020, the Internet Archive expanded digital lending to allow an unlimited number of copies. This decision led to a [lawsuit filed by several publishers](https://www.eff.org/cases/hachette-v-internet-archive) against the Internet Archive, alleging copyright violation. In March 2023, a lower court [ruled against](https://file770.com/judge-decides-against-internet-archive/) the Internet Archive, although they plan to [continue fighting the case](http://blog.archive.org/2023/03/25/the-fight-continues/).

A judgment against the Internet Archive could be devastating, as it is a free website funded by donations and may lose a significant amount of money to the publishing houses seeking damages. Furthermore, publishers seem to oppose the [entire operation of the Internet Archive](https://www.techdirt.com/2022/10/24/as-big-book-publishers-look-to-kill-the-internet-archive-it-introduces-democracys-library/), from its public domain work to its Wayback Machine, which is the largest archive of the Internet in existence.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?
Background: The [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.claymath.org/) in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the institute.

As of now, only one of these problems, the [Poincaré Conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium/poincare-conjecture/), has been solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003. The remaining six problems: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Riemann Hypothesis, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap, and P vs NP , still remain unsolved.

This question asks whether an AI system will be credit to have solved one of these remaining six Millennium Prize Problems by the end of June 2025.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.05
Superforecaster forecast: 0.03
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?
Background: > As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)

In a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:

> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow "quite a lot of individual customization" and "that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable," because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.

> "If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds," Altman tells Axios. "But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools."

> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, "It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important."
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.05
Superforecaster forecast: 0.01
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.65
Superforecaster forecast: 0.09
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?
Background: [Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).

He [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.95
Superforecaster forecast: 0.4
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
Background: The [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).

If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.

Below is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.**
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1d3Hg&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe>
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?
Background: GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire.  

Andrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. 

Despite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. 

The market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). 

Sky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to "reach" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing.
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.5
Superforecaster forecast: 0.95
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
Background: In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:

>Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:

> >"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0
Question: Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?
Background: The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.

Below is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe>
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 1
Question: Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033  will be < 2.0?
Background: **The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/08/indian_fertilit.html) and was made August 30, 2012 with economist John Nye, with odds of 2:1 favoring Caplan.**

Caplan writes:

>I think that bad economic policy, not “overpopulation,” is India’s main economic problem.  But whatever you think about the social effects of population growth, it’s clear that Indian fertility is sharply declining.  I expect this rapid decline to continue, but my colleague John Nye isn’t convinced.  As a result, we’ve agreed to the following bet:

>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0,

>John owes me $200.

>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ≥2.0,

>I owe John $100.

>We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.

>Hopefully I’ll lose!
Source: metaculus
Public human forecast: 0.9
Superforecaster forecast: 1
Resolved outcome (1 = Yes, 0 = No): 0