Question: Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
Background: Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).

The United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85).  American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries.  The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups  like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). 
 [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of "changing a baby's characteristics" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/).  There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as "eugenics".  The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021.  Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.

[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence.  American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0