Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Taylor Swift is engaged to be married between February 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Taylor Swift or her official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will another movie gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows any movie other than 'Deadpool 3', 'Joker: Folie à Deux', 'Dune: Part 2', 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga', 'Despicable Me 4', or 'Inside Out 2' as the film with the highest total gross for the year 2024 once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about movies' domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward the movies' gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Damson Idris is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first decision made by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit results in the reduction of the damages awarded to E. Jean Carroll, totaling $83.3 million in her defamation lawsuit against Donald J. Trump, “E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump” (22-cv-10016), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only the first decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit regarding the reduction of the $83.3 million judgment will be considered for the resolution of this market. Subsequent appeals, including those to the Supreme Court, will not affect this market's resolution.

If the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's first decision results in a new trial, settlement, or any other outcome that does not directly reduce the $83.3 million judgment, this market will resolve to "No".

The market will resolve to "No" if the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit does not issue its first decision regarding the appeal by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the official ruling or documents from the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from March 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Canada federal election in 2024?
Background: The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, however federal elections have been called early numerous times in Canada's history, most recently in 2021.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: TikTok banned in the US in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Supreme Court vacancy in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between April 7 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will America ban Zyn in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government bans Zyn nicotine pouches from sale or purchase within the US by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?
Background: If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Biden pardon SBF?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried (SBF) receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: OpenSea token in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenSea announces a token by December 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET, or to "No" otherwise.

"Announces a token by December 31" means they confirm by December 31 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.

The resolution source is OpenSea (https://opensea.io/blog/, https://twitter.com/opensea, etc.).
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: GPT-5 not announced in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

This market may not resolve to "Yes" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Meissner effect claimed in the paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999 is replicated by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of the replication(s). This market may only resolve once a definitive consensus is reached.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are definitively proven between October 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that OpenAI has reached a settlement with the New York Times over copyright infringement issues by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are NOT definitively proven in 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

This market may not resolve to 'Yes' until December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET has passed and Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is not definitively proven.

The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets.. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 16 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Australian rapper and model Iggy Azalea is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.

This market will resolve to "No" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Ansem criminal charges in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ansem (@blknoiz06) is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.

This market will resolve to "No" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Is John McAfee alive?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by North Korea, South Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Russian nuke in space in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Bird flu pandemic in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0