Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Background: 
    
    
    Market capitalization (or “market cap”) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company’s shares on the open market (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/market-cap" target="_blank">Fidelity</a>). A global ranking of companies by market capitalization is available on <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a>. 
    
  <div><br></div><div>Nvidia has become an essential player in artificial intelligence, as the technologies the company produces underpin many of the major advancements and applications of AI (<a href="https://www.plus500.com/en/instruments/nvda/nvidia-artificial-intelligence-contributions~2" target="_blank">Plus500</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2023/03/29/why-nvidia-matters-for-the-future-of-ai/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). The demand for AI chips has skyrocketed Nvidia’s value in recent months, leading it to briefly become the world’s largest company by market cap in June 2024, before falling back to third behind Microsoft and Apple (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/03/nvidia-just-became-the-largest-company-on-the-stoc/" target="_blank">The Motley Fool</a>). </div><div><br></div><div>Many expect the value of Nvidia to continue to rise, with some predicting market caps as high as $5 trillion by 2026 or $10 trillion by 2030 (<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/19/prediction-nvidia-five-trillion-generative-ai/" target="_blank">The Motley Fool</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2024/06/07/prediction-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). However, others have suggested that we may be in an AI bubble and that its costs and unclear value could cause Nvidia’s value to fall back to earth (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nvidia-investors-can-learn-from-the-roaring-1920s-and-the-radio-bubble-206aaf79" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stocks-bubble-james-ferguson-intel-cisco-chatgpt-2024-7" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved by comparing market capitalizations on <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a> on 31 May 2025. Note that 31 May 2025 is a Saturday, so market caps will be based on the end-of-day stock prices on 30 May 2025.</div>
  
  
  
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: No Ethereum all time high in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) never reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?
Background: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 6 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,868.00 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price of 15,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. ETH only hit 10k on other exchanges but 15k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Tether Insolvent in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Fed rate hike in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between April 25 and December 18, 2024's Fed meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December 18 meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Milady has a higher floor price than Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) for at least 1 continuous hour between May 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Blur's chart for each NFT, specifically the red line for 1d sales, for the dates within this market's range (Milady: https://blur.io/eth/collection/milady, BAYC: https://blur.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub). If Blur becomes unavailable or ceases to report figures, another credible source may be used.

Note: If the 1 hour long period starts at e.g. December 31, 2024 11:20 PM ET it will still count for this market.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Background: This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for bitcoin BTC-USD between 1 Jan '24 00:00 and 31 Dec '24 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of 100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD "High" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

To see the "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value "H" at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Coinbase (e.g. BTC only hit 75k on other exchanges but 100k on Coinbase), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
Background: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Solana ETF approved in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Solana ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between Feb 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if FTX begins customer reimbursements in Q4 2024 (between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If customer reimbursements begin before the start of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", customer reimbursements must actually begin; mere announcements that payouts will begin within this market's timeframe will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FTX and the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?
Background: This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

This market's timeframe spans from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive).

If, according to the resolution source, $USDC has a greater market cap than $USDT for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDC is equal to or lower than that of $USDT for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the December 31 market cap data is available.

Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps.

If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of 250,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. BTC only hit 100k on other exchanges but 250k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Doge ETF approved in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024?
Background: This is a market on whether the market capitalization of Ethena's $USDe will surpass that of Circle's $USDC within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethena-usde/historical_data and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

This market's timeframe spans from April 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive).

If, according to the resolution source, $USDe has a greater market cap than $USDC for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDe is equal to or lower than that of $USDC for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the December 31 market cap data is available.

Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps.

If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rege-Jean Page is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Inside Out 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cosmo Jarvis is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Joker: Folie à Deux' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Henry Cavill is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if an actor other than Aaron Johnson, Henry Cavil, Damson Idris, James Norton, Rege-Jean Page, Cosmo Jarvis, or Tom Hardy is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If no new James Bond actor is announced by the resolution date this market will also resolve to "Yes". Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 1
Question: James Norton announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if James Norton is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Deadpool 3' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Dune: Part 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. 

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aaron Taylor-Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: polymarket
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0