Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Trump impose large tariffs in first year?
Background: Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. 

If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. 

If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.

See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum  
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
Background: This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market: > I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: > 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans > 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art > 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech > 4. A technological singularity, obviously > 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm

Nov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025? → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
Background: Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Background: Twitter threads

https://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602

https://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241

https://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136

First tweet of last thread: "Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects".

Name of the paper "Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996

Resolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. "Conclusive" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.

Resolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.

Resolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.

I won't trade in this market for objectivity.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?
Background: Born December 7, 1928
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Background: See:

https://lifeview.com

https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection

Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions. 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will any of the four main characters of Severance die in season 2?
Background: Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving

Death between season 1 and 2 also counts, assuming season 2 takes place after 1.

Specifically medical death (brain death, no heartbeat, etc). 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Background: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

I won't bet in this market.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?
Background: Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent "alive" counts.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?
Background: Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?
Background: I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Background: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?
Background: Legal troubles generally refer to situations where an individual or entity faces legal challenges or actions due to alleged violations of laws or regulations. This can encompass a variety of scenarios, including:

1. Criminal Charges

2. Civil Lawsuits

3. Regulatory Actions

4. Investigations

5. Legal Notices and Cease-and-Desist Letters

6. Arbitration and Mediation

In each of these scenarios, the individual or entity typically needs to engage with the legal system, which can involve hiring legal representation, responding to legal actions, appearing in court, or complying with legal decisions and judgments.

Will resolve by the end of 2024 based on information available from credible news sources. 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Background: This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.

It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.

Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Ukrainian victory" or "Ukrainian victory with territorial losses".

Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the "result" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.

The closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
Background: Will resolve to YES, if at any point before the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces control majority of Crimea territory

resolution source: Institute for the Study of War, https://www.understandingwar.org/
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Background: If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.

Market open until it happens 

See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?
Background: Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets.

See also:

[markets]
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?
Background: (Inspired by 2004’s “I, Robot” starring Will Smith.)

Will something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035?

For the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie—the “uprising” can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a “yes.” 

Essentially:

1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks

2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area

3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week)

4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours

5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. 

Examples:

5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners’ short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity’s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation).

5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners’ short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories.

5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners’ short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity’s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output).

Any of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a “yes.”

Movie for context:

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
Background: 2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
Background: Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
Background: This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. 

The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.

The question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.

This question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected "designer babies" be born in China?
Background: [A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence.  Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
Background: There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?
Background: The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.

While COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)

There are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:

* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)

* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)

* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)

* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)

* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)

* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)

The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
Background: Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. 

Should Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?
Background: Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.

Ethiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an "existential question". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.

Ethiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0