Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
Background: Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.

There have been four previous questions of this type on Metaculus. Each of them resolved as “No.”

-	[Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3900/will-the-us-see-a-massive-riot-in-2020/) by Jgalt
-	[Will there be a major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6244/large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-early-2021/) by Jgalt
-	[Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/) by Matthew_Barnett
-	[Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4536/will-the-us-see-widespread-rioting-in-2020/) by juancambeiro
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
Background: *Related Questions on Metaculus:*

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

----

Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:

* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange 

* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)

For example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on "[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)". 

See [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?
Background: A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:
> 
- "SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019."
- "We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon"
- "Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way."
- "China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged"

However, while "all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident," the IC "remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19":
>
- "Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus"
- "One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology."
- "Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information"

The declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may "alter our evaluation of hypotheses" and that, in the past, the "identification of animal sources has taken years."
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
Background: *Related Question on Metaculus:*

* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/)

----

Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
Background: In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure.

As context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
Background: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident.  There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations.  See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.

On September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying

>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?
Background: Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.

The current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?
Background: In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition).  The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban.  The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?
Background: After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most [“consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization”.](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a [coup](https://www.businessinsider.com/military-coup-russia-likely-anger-grows-toward-putin-ex-aide-2023-1?r=US&IR=T) raised by many.

[Analysts](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) are [divided](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-political-regimes/) on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin’s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy.

> What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today. 

> Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again. 

How Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
Background: Holden Karnofsky, in [Nearcast-based "deployment problem" analysis](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZzg8NS7wBtqcwhoJ/nearcast-based-deployment-problem-analysis), suggests establishing an organization, which he calls  the IAIA: an organization, which could range from a private nonprofit to a treaty-backed international agency, that tracks transformative AI projects and takes actions to censure or shut down dangerous ones.

This IAIA organization would play a similar role to that which the [IAEA](https://www.iaea.org/) plays in nuclear weapons regulation. The IAEA enforces nuclear weapons restrictions through on-site inspections, monitoring, and analysis of environmental samples, as well as by providing technical assistance and promoting transparency.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?
Background: The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine.  [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
Background: A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804.  However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him.  Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.

We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change.  Article 3, section 1 states "judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?
Background: *Related Question on Metaculus:*

* [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/)

----

The [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion.  It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz).  The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.

The court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting.  The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_(1976)), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?
Background: Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?
Background: The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the "Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the "Fort Wayne Pistons" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the "Pistons" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.

[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?
Background: Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international agreements have been established to protect marine ecosystems and reduce pollution, their effectiveness is often limited by the lack of comprehensive and timely monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.

In recent years, the rapid advancement of space-based technologies, such as satellites and remote sensing instruments, has [shown the potential](https://www.saic.com/features/ocean-health-tracked-using-satellite-imagery) to revolutionize the field of oceanic surveillance. These tools promise real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.

The [UN High Seas Treaty](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137857#:~:text=The%20UN%27s%20193%20Member%20States,thirds%20of%20the%20planet%27s%20oceans.) is a [landmark legally binding marine biodiversity agreement](https://phys.org/news/2023-06-high-seas-treaty-ocean.html) that dictates use and protection of "The Area" aka the parts of the ocean that are not under sovereign jurisdiction. [Enforcing this treaty](https://www.groundstation.space/un-high-seas-treaty-will-need-satellite-enforcement/) will require methods of monitoring expansive swaths of ocean sustainably. 

This raises an intriguing question about the potential for effective use of satellite systems to reduce marine pollution and enforce the treaty. The answer could have profound implications for our collective ability to safeguard the planet's vital marine ecosystems.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0