Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will a New York sports team win a championship by the end of the 2025 sports season?
Background: This market will resolve YES if one of the following major New York metropolitan area-based teams wins their respective championship by the conclusion of the 2025 NFL season (Latest Feb 9, 2026 – Super Bowl 60)

New York Mets –  World Series 

New York Yankees – World Series

New York Giants – Super Bowl

New York Jets – Super Bowl 

New York Red Bulls – MLS Cup or Leagues Cup

New York City FC – MLS Cup or Leagues Cup

New York Nets – NBA Final

New York Knicks – NBA Final

New York Rangers – Stanley Cup

New York Islanders – Stanley Cup

The two New York football teams, although not physically based in the NY Metropolitan area, will be considered New York teams for the purpose of the market. 

Other small-market teams, such as the WNBA's NY Liberty, MLR New York Rugby, or NLL Lacrosse will not be counted.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Manchester City win the 2024/25 Premier League?
Background: Will resolve based on the Premier League's official announcement of which team is the winner of the 2024/25 season.

https://www.premierleague.com/
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will an SEC school win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship?
Background: SEC refers to the Southeastern Conference, CFP is the Division I FBS College Football Playoff.

The teams include Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?
Background: Top-10 players to be determined by https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings, or other official rankings list.

A "televised match" consists of either a conventional TV broadcast or a youtube video with over 100k views.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Joel Embiid finish his career with 2 or more regular season MVPs?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be a "low scorigami" before 2030?
Background: In the original scorigami video, Jon Bois also coins the term "low scorigami", to describe a scorigami where both teams score 15 points or fewer. He then showcases the most recent case of low scorigami at the time, a 2011 49ers-Bengals game that ended 13-8. Since the video was published in 2016, while there have been many new scorigami, there have been no low scorigami. With only one low scorigami in the entire 2010s, will this decade see even a single instance of it?

This market resolves YES if an NFL game ends with a final score that has never occurred before in which both teams score 15 points or fewer before January 1st, 2030. I will use https://nflscorigami.com/ for resolution, or another reliable source if the site no longer exists.

 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
Background: This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: 

(1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.

(2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.

Criteria and clarifications. 

If Carlsen competes in a tournament or tournaments which are qualification events for a candidates tournament, then that does not count as competing for the world championship. For example, if winning first place in the Sinquefield Cup earns the winner a spot in the candidates tournament, then participating in the Sinquefield Cup does not count as competing for the world championship. But if Carlsen wins first place at the Sinquefield Cup and opts to participate in the candidates tournament, then this question will resolve as YES. The Sinquefield Cup does not count as a world championship competition because its chief reason for existing is not to serve as a WCC selection event.

The official World Classical Chess Championship is the WCC contest administered by FIDE (or FIDE's successor if it should cease to exist as the main governing body of international chess competitions). Under these terms, Fischer's last match against Spassky and Kasparov's championships after the Kasparov-Short competition do not count as FIDE Classical World Chess Championships. 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC?
Background: The 2024 F1 season kicks off this week - the first race is the Bahrain Grand Prix on Saturday 2nd March.

This will be Lewis Hamilton's last season with Mercedes as he has announced that he will be leaving for Ferrari next year. Will he beat his teammate George Russell in the drivers' championship in their final season together?

Notes:

This market will go by the official WDC rankings. If the two drivers are tied on points, WDC positions are decided on countback (ie. most wins is used as a tiebreaker, then most second places, etc).

If one of the two drivers withdraws, moves team during the season, leaves the sport or misses races for any reason at all, the market will still resolve as normal to the driver who is ahead in the WDC.

The market will resolve early if one driver is so far ahead that the other driver can't beat them even if they get maximum points for the rest of the season.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the Philadelphia 76ers or Philadelphia Eagles win a championship by 2028?
Background: Market will resolve YES if the Eagles or 76ers win a championship by 2028, will resolve N/A if both teams relocate to another city for whatever reason.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?
Background: Abandoned in this case will mean:

Explicitly cancelled 

Shelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction 

Scaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)

I will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?
Background: Linked to this Kalshi question:

If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?
Background: Recently, MrBeast got into some heat for a few things, including the content in this vid and this vid 

Legal offenses can be divided into three main categories under the North Carolina justice system: infractions, misdemeanors, and felonies. Infractions are non-criminal (will NOT resolve YES with non-criminal infraction alone), or petty offenses, while misdemeanors and felonies are the two main types of criminal offenses.

If MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) is charged and convicted, found guilty, for any crime (misdemeanor or felony or criminal infraction) by any state in the US, before the end of 2026, then this market resolves YES. 

Otherwise this market will resolve NO on Dec 31st, 2026.

also, if he’s mid trial during the deadline with no criminal conviction yet this will resolve NO even if he gets convicted in that particular trial after the deadline (which will be 11:59pm ET)

Comment any questions or news you have! 💙
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)
Background: Resolves 50% if neither happens by the end of 2030
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Manifold add tabs (like the US Elections one) for other important elections this year?
Background: Resolves Yes if Manifold does add a tab for another election (Indian, Russian, etc...). Resolves No if Manifold never adds anything after the US elections tab.

(Will resolve Yes at any time in the year if it does happen but No at the end of the year).
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?
Background: The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission.

Will this happen in 2024?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?
Background: If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.

This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe Biden has left office or finished his first presidential term, even if he gets re-elected for a second term.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Background: EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune?
Background: Denis Villeneuve’s last two films have been Dune (2021) and Dune: Part Two (2024). Will his next film be set in the Dune-iverse?

This will Resolve once there is a film with a release date (day and year) with Denis Villeneuve attached to direct. If it is unclear if the film is related to Dune, this may stay open until he or the studio clarifies. If Denis says he’s doing a fully secret project, this market will stay open until this the film’s Dune-relatedness is clear (potentially up until the release of the film).

Even if the film is later scrapped, or another film is released first, this market will not re-resolve. This market will extend as needed.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year?
Background: This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before December 31st, 2024 at 11:59PM PST. A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal trailer would qualify, but something such as a social media posting showing a visual of the system and its name would resolve to YES as well.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)
Background: For context, see this tweet.

Within the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.

If you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com

See also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs 

I think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.

Resolution

‌
A few separate possibilities to resolution here

1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.

The phrasing will be something along the lines of "Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?", with options "Agree" and "Disagree".

If "Agree" has ≥80% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.

2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at ≥80% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES 

3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if ≥80% "Agree" on the suggested name.

4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.

5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.


Feel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.
I will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' become the highest-grossing movie of all time?
Background: 'Avatar: The Way of Water' (2022) is the second instalment of the Avatar film series directed by James Cameron.

This is a market on whether 'Avatar: The Way of Water' will become the highest-grossing movie of all time, worldwide.

[image]The BoxOfficeMojo stats will be used to resolve this market, available at: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/ww_top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW&ref_=bo_cso_ac

This is the current (January 9, 2023) list of Top 10 highest-grossing movies:

[image]this market will resolve to YES as soon as Avatar: The Way of Water hits the #1 box office spot

this market will resolve to NO, if Avatar: The Way of Water does not hit the box office record before December 31 2025.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?
Background: Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esports#Olympic_Games_recognition

Can be either winter or summer olympics

@/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the-5a91bcfb8700 

@/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will GTA VI get delayed again?
Background: GTA
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Grimes come out of retirement in 2024?
Background: On the evening of December 29, 2023, Grimes posted, "My friends are convincing me to come out of retirement this year." Assuming she meant "this coming year" and not in the final days of 2023, will this happen?


I propose to resolve on the following criteria: 

The market will resolve as YES if Grimes releases a new album or EP before December 31, 2024. The release must be officially announced by Grimes and be available on major streaming platforms or physical formats.

The market will resolve as YES if Grimes performs live as Grimes (distinct from a DJ set or guest feature) in a tour that begins before December 31, 2024. For the purposes of this market, a "tour" means at least 5 performances across different cities, OR anything that is officially called a tour by Grimes. The performances must be officially announced by Grimes or the event organizers and be open to the public.

The market will resolve as NO otherwise.

I am open to recommendations (from Grimes or any interested parties) on the details of the resolution criteria. 

Related market:


(https://manifold.markets/embed/Clark/if-grimes-comes-out-of-retirement-i)


Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?
Background: Resolves YES if an AI can gain a perfect score of 1600 on an SAT under standard conditions before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will we get AGI before 2027?
Background: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027

Here are markets with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 

Related markets:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 

Other questions for 2027:

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-14d109820be6 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313 

@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1 

Other points of reference for AGI:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio 

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid 
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?
Background: Resolves YES if there are more then 2,000 active daily users in January 2025 (monthly average). 

At its core, the question asks whether this social network will die after the hype has passed (like Clubhouse did) or if it will at least maintain the same level of interest as it has now, 2 weeks after it was featured in the New York Times magazine. 

[image]
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?
Background: This question is based on a study suggesting the potential presence of the Meissner effect in copper-substituted lead apatite near room temperature. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if firm, peer-reviewed evidence or independent/laboratory verification confirming this is published by December 31, 2024.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999

https://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1742566608554627227
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
Background: I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Background: I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?
Background: [This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?
Background: Resolves according to this poll

(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenWatts/does-elon-musk-deserve-100-billion)
Take the total vote on "No", divided by the total number of voters on the market, to compute the % voted on "No".

Market Resolves Yes if the % voted on "No" is larger than 70% at the end of 2024
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
Background: If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?
Background: Here's the video: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY
Source: manifold
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0