Duruo/forecastbench-single_question huggingface dataset:
Question: Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?
Background: *The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.

The most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years. 

As of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's "[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)" nor Patrick Rothfuss's "[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.

Who will publish first?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?
Background: Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.

Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.

Both Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.

This question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?
Background: Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):

>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?
Background: Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.

After the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.

The Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.

[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),

> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.

> ...

> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?
Background: Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a "phantom genre."

The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.

(EN ESPAÑOL:)

***¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?***

España tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».

El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the next James Bond be female?
Background: James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.

It is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:

* ["I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there," - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/)
* ["The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/)

However, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?
Background: In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.

The Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.

Are we on a road to a Star Trek Future?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?
Background: Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:

> Just wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?


As part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked "Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?". The answer given was "No".
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6" (or higher) before 2030?
Background: [Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. 

Whilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised "beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!". We interpret that to mean 2030.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?
Background: The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Among the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as "fireballers" or "flamethrowers"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.

Recent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb), [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).

For perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and  Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).

Moreover, there has been an "epidemic" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?
Background: Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-currently-interested-in-coming-to-nascar/) [for many years](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/a30351017/next-gen-what-we-know-about-nascars-new-car/) that a new manufacturer will join the series, [or that Dodge will return](https://twitter.com/A_S12/status/1579650835084369921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579650835084369921%7Ctwgr%5E7833c022a2de9318836a1b21aca8b43ff232c7de%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportscasting.com%2Fdodge-reportedly-has-cooled-on-nascar-return-but-does-it-matter%2F).
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?
Background: Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Background: 
    
    
    
    
    
    Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-clinches-nomination-national-election-third-term/" target="_blank">CBS</a>). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/5/21/venezuelas-maduro-wins-presidential-vote-boycotted-by-opposition" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/20/americas/venezuela-elections/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/could-be-last-shot-restore-democracy-venezuela" target="_blank">CSIS</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-repression-maduro-machado-35d063ba9ba3e08399c02cb572d78e5b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). If re-elected, Maduro’s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (<a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-02-07/venezuelas-ruling-party-is-preparing-this-years-electoral-calendar-to-win-the-presidency-by-hook-or-by-crook.html" target="_blank">El País</a>).
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.</div>
  
  
  
  
  
  
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Background: The chief of Myanmar’s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e" target="_blank">AP News</a>). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-02/myanmar-census-will-increase-surveillance-of-junta-opponents/102923250" target="_blank">ABC Australia</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading: </b></div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election" target="_blank">Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election</a> (Center for Strategic and International Studies) </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/census-10242023154556.html" target="_blank">Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls</a> (Radio Free Asia)</li>
</ul><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.</div><div><br></div>
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0
Question: Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Background: In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/" target="_blank">CBS</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-signs-law-allows-2-more-terms-d9acdada71b75c3daeafb389782fed4b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/putin-and-russias-future" target="_blank">Wilson Center</a>). 
    
  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:  </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.</div>
Source: infer
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0