Question: Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
Background: Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) 

One of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores.  It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media.  In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2
) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.

Israel has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases.  Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family.  The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox.  Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.

Israel had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/).  It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).

Judaism is generally bioethically permissive.  Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo.  Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research.  Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life.  Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four.  [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.
Source: metaculus
Resolved outcome (1 = yes, 0 = no): 0