Forecasting Human Trajectory from Scene History
Authors: Mancheng Meng, Ziyan Wu, Terrence Chen, Xiran Cai, Xiang Zhou, Fan Yang, Dinggang Shen

Predicting the future trajectory of a person remains a challenging problem, due to randomness and subjectivity. However, the moving patterns of human in constrained scenario typically conform to a limited number of regularities to a certain extent, because of the scenario restrictions (\eg, floor plan, roads and obstacles) and person-person or person-object interactivity. Thus, an individual person in this scenario should follow one of the regularities as well. In other words, a person's subsequent trajectory has likely been traveled by others. Based on this hypothesis, we propose to forecast a person's future trajectory by learning from the implicit scene regularities. We call the regularities, inherently derived from the past dynamics of the people and the environment in the scene,  \emph{scene history}. We categorize scene history information into two types: historical group trajectories and individual-surroundings interaction. To exploit these information for trajectory prediction, we propose a novel framework Scene History Excavating Network (SHENet), where the scene history is leveraged in a simple yet effective approach. In particular, we design two components, the group trajectory bank module to extract representative group trajectories as the candidate for future path, and the cross-modal interaction module to model the interaction between individual past trajectory and its surroundings for trajectory refinement, respectively.  In addition, to mitigate the uncertainty in the evaluation, caused by the aforementioned randomness and subjectivity, we propose to include smoothness into evaluation metrics. We conduct extensive evaluations to validate the efficacy of proposed framework on ETH, UCY, as well as a new, challenging benchmark dataset PAV, demonstrating superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.