DeepNLP/NIPS-2020-Accepted-Papers huggingface dataset:
Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting
Authors: Sercan Arik, Chun-Liang Li, Jinsung Yoon, Rajarishi Sinha, Arkady Epshteyn, Long  Le, Vikas Menon, Shashank Singh, Leyou Zhang, Martin Nikoltchev, Yash Sonthalia, Hootan Nakhost, Elli Kanal, Tomas Pfister

Abstract: We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling (e.g., SEIR) to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions.  Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts compared to the alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights.
Off-policy Policy Evaluation For Sequential Decisions Under Unobserved Confounding
Authors: Hongseok Namkoong, Ramtin Keramati, Steve Yadlowsky, Emma Brunskill

Abstract: When observed decisions depend only on observed features, off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) methods for sequential decision problems can estimate the performance of evaluation policies before deploying them. However, this assumption is frequently violated due to unobserved confounders, unrecorded variables that impact both the decisions and their outcomes. We assess robustness of OPE methods under unobserved confounding by developing worst-case bounds on the performance of an evaluation policy. When unobserved confounders can affect every decision in an episode, we demonstrate that even small amounts of per-decision confounding can heavily bias OPE methods. Fortunately, in a number of important settings found in healthcare, policy-making, and technology, unobserved confounders may directly affect only one of the many decisions made, and influence future decisions/rewards only through the directly affected decision. Under this less pessimistic model of one-decision confounding, we propose an efficient loss-minimization-based procedure for computing worst-case bounds, and prove its statistical consistency. On simulated healthcare examples---management of sepsis and interventions for autistic children---where this is a reasonable model, we demonstrate that our method invalidates non-robust results and provides meaningful certificates of robustness, allowing reliable selection of policies under unobserved confounding.
Modern Hopfield Networks and Attention for Immune Repertoire Classification
Authors: Michael Widrich, Bernhard Schäfl, Milena Pavlović, Hubert Ramsauer, Lukas Gruber, Markus Holzleitner, Johannes Brandstetter, Geir Kjetil Sandve, Victor Greiff, Sepp Hochreiter, Günter Klambauer

Abstract: A central mechanism in machine learning is to identify, store, and recognize patterns. How to learn, access, and retrieve such patterns is crucial in Hopfield networks and the more recent transformer architectures. We show that the attention mechanism of transformer architectures is actually the update rule of modern Hopfield networks that can store exponentially many patterns. We exploit this high storage capacity of modern Hopfield networks to solve a challenging multiple instance learning (MIL) problem in computational biology: immune repertoire classification. In immune repertoire classification, a vast number of immune receptors are used to predict the immune status of an individual. This constitutes a MIL problem with an unprecedentedly massive number of instances, two orders of magnitude larger than currently considered problems, and with an extremely low witness rate. Accurate and interpretable machine learning methods solving this problem could pave the way towards new vaccines and therapies, which is currently a very relevant research topic intensified by the COVID-19 crisis. In this work, we present our novel method DeepRC that integrates transformer-like attention, or equivalently modern Hopfield networks, into deep learning architectures for massive MIL such as immune repertoire classification. We demonstrate that DeepRC outperforms all other methods with respect to predictive performance on large-scale experiments including simulated and real-world virus infection data and enables the extraction of sequence motifs that are connected to a given disease class. Source code and datasets: https://github.com/ml-jku/DeepRC
One Ring to Rule Them All: Certifiably Robust Geometric Perception with Outliers
Authors: Heng Yang, Luca Carlone

Abstract: We propose the first general and practical framework to design certifiable algorithms for robust geometric perception in the presence of a large amount of outliers. We investigate the use of a truncated least squares (TLS) cost function, which is known to be robust to outliers, but leads to hard, nonconvex, and nonsmooth optimization problems. Our first contribution is to show that –for a broad class of geometric perception problems– TLS estimation can be reformulated as an optimization over the ring of polynomials and Lasserre’s hierarchy of convex moment relaxations is empirically tight at the minimum relaxation order (i.e., certifiably obtains the global minimum of the nonconvex TLS problem). Our second contribution is to exploit the structural sparsity of the objective and constraint polynomials and leverage basis reduction to significantly reduce the size of the semidefinite program (SDP) resulting from the moment relaxation, without compromising its tightness. Our third contribution is to develop scalable dual optimality certifiers from the lens of sums-of-squares (SOS) relaxation, that can compute the suboptimality gap and possibly certify global optimality of any candidate solution (e.g., returned by fast heuristics such as RANSAC or graduated non-convexity). Our dual certifiers leverage Douglas-Rachford Splitting to solve a convex feasibility SDP. Numerical experiments across different perception problems, including single rotation averaging, shape alignment, 3D point cloud and mesh registration, and high-integrity satellite pose estimation, demonstrate the tightness of our relaxations, the correctness of the certification, and the scalability of the proposed dual certifiers to large problems, beyond the reach of current SDP solvers.
Task-Robust Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning
Authors: Liam Collins, Aryan Mokhtari, Sanjay Shakkottai

Abstract: Meta-learning methods have shown an impressive ability to train models that rapidly learn new tasks. However, these methods only aim to perform well in expectation over tasks coming from some particular distribution that is typically equivalent across meta-training and meta-testing, rather than considering worst-case task performance. In this work we introduce the notion of ``task-robustness'' by reformulating the popular Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) objective \citep{finn2017model} such that the goal is to minimize the maximum loss over the observed meta-training tasks. The solution to this novel formulation is task-robust in the sense that it places equal importance on even the most difficult and/or rare tasks. This also means that it performs well over all distributions of the observed tasks, making it robust to shifts in the task distribution between meta-training and meta-testing. We present an algorithm to solve the proposed min-max problem, and show that it converges to an $\epsilon$-accurate point at the optimal rate of $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^2)$ in the convex setting and to an $(\epsilon, \delta)$-stationary point at the rate of $\mathcal{O}(\max\{1/\epsilon^5, 1/\delta^5\})$ in nonconvex settings. We also provide an upper bound on the new task generalization error that captures the advantage of minimizing the worst-case task loss, and demonstrate this advantage in sinusoid regression and image classification experiments.
R-learning in actor-critic model offers a biologically relevant mechanism for sequential decision-making
Authors: Sergey Shuvaev, Sarah Starosta, Duda Kvitsiani, Adam Kepecs, Alexei Koulakov

Abstract: In real-world settings, we repeatedly decide whether to pursue better conditions or to keep things unchanged. Examples include time investment, employment, entertainment preferences etc. How do we make such decisions? To address this question, the field of behavioral ecology has developed foraging paradigms – the model settings in which human and non-human subjects decided when to leave depleting food resources. Foraging theory, represented by the marginal value theorem (MVT), provided accurate average-case stay-or-leave rules consistent with behaviors of subjects towards depleting resources. Yet, the algorithms underlying individual choices and ways to learn such algorithms remained unclear. In this work, we build interpretable deep actor-critic models to show that R-learning – a reinforcement learning (RL) approach balancing short-term and long-term rewards – is consistent with the way real-life agents may learn making stay-or-leave decisions. Specifically we show that deep R-learning predicts choice patterns consistent with behavior of mice in foraging tasks; its TD error, the training signal in our model, correlates with dopamine activity of ventral tegmental area (VTA) neurons in the brain. Our theoretical and experimental results show that deep R-learning agents leave depleting reward resources when reward intake rates fall below their exponential averages over past trials. This individual-case decision rule, learned within RL and matching the MVT on average, bridges the gap between these major approaches to sequential decision-making. We further argue that our proposed decision rule, resulting from R-learning and consistent with animals’ behavior, is Bayes optimal in dynamic real-world environments. Overall, our work links available sequential decision-making theories including the MVT, RL, and Bayesian approaches to propose the learning mechanism and an optimal decision rule for sequential stay-or-leave choices in natural environments.
Revisiting Frank-Wolfe for Polytopes: Strict Complementarity and Sparsity
Authors: Dan Garber

Abstract: In recent years it was proved that simple modifications of the classical Frank-Wolfe algorithm (aka conditional gradient algorithm) for smooth convex minimization over convex and compact polytopes, converge with linear rate, assuming the objective function has the quadratic growth property. However, the rate of these methods depends explicitly on the dimension of the problem which cannot explain their empirical success for large scale problems. In this paper we first demonstrate that already for very simple problems and even when the optimal solution lies on a low-dimensional face of the polytope, such dependence on the dimension cannot be avoided in worst case. We then revisit the addition of a strict complementarity assumption already considered in Wolfe's classical book \cite{Wolfe1970}, and prove that under this condition, the Frank-Wolfe method with away-steps and line-search converges linearly with rate that depends explicitly only on the dimension of the optimal face, hence providing a significant improvement in case the optimal solution is sparse. We motivate this strict complementarity condition by proving that it implies sparsity-robustness of optimal solutions to noise.
Fast Convergence of Langevin Dynamics on Manifold: Geodesics meet Log-Sobolev
Authors: Xiao Wang, Qi Lei, Ioannis Panageas

Abstract: Sampling is a fundamental and arguably very important task with numerous applications in Machine Learning. One approach to sample from a high dimensional distribution $e^{-f}$ for some function $f$ is the Langevin Algorithm (LA). Recently, there has been a lot of progress in showing fast convergence of LA even in cases where $f$ is non-convex, notably \cite{VW19}, \cite{MoritaRisteski} in which the former paper focuses on functions $f$ defined in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and the latter paper focuses on functions with symmetries (like matrix completion type objectives) with manifold structure. Our work generalizes the results of \cite{VW19} where $f$ is defined on a manifold $M$ rather than $\mathbb{R}^n$. From technical point of view, we show that KL decreases in a geometric rate whenever the distribution $e^{-f}$ satisfies a log-Sobolev inequality on $M$.
Tensor Completion Made Practical
Authors: Allen Liu, Ankur Moitra

Abstract: Tensor completion is a natural higher-order generalization of matrix completion where the goal is to recover a low-rank tensor from sparse observations of its entries. Existing algorithms are either heuristic without provable guarantees, based on solving large semidefinite programs which are impractical to run, or make strong assumptions such as requiring the factors to be nearly orthogonal.  In this paper we introduce a new variant of alternating minimization, which in turn is inspired by understanding how the progress measures that guide convergence of alternating minimization in the matrix setting need to be adapted to the tensor setting. We show strong provable guarantees, including showing that our algorithm converges linearly to the true tensors even when the factors are highly correlated and can be implemented in nearly linear time. Moreover our algorithm is also highly practical and we show that we can complete third order tensors with a thousand dimensions from observing a tiny fraction of its entries. In contrast, and somewhat surprisingly, we show that the standard version of alternating minimization, without our new twist, can converge at a drastically slower rate in practice.
Optimization and Generalization Analysis of Transduction through Gradient Boosting and Application to Multi-scale Graph Neural Networks
Authors: Kenta Oono, Taiji Suzuki

Abstract: It is known that the current graph neural networks (GNNs) are difficult to make themselves deep due to the problem known as over-smoothing. Multi-scale GNNs are a promising approach for mitigating the over-smoothing problem. However, there is little explanation of why it works empirically from the viewpoint of learning theory. In this study, we derive the optimization and generalization guarantees of transductive learning algorithms that include multi-scale GNNs. Using the boosting theory, we prove the convergence of the training error under weak learning-type conditions. By combining it with generalization gap bounds in terms of transductive Rademacher complexity, we show that a test error bound of a specific type of multi-scale GNNs that decreases corresponding to the number of node aggregations under some conditions. Our results offer theoretical explanations for the effectiveness of the multi-scale structure against the over-smoothing problem. We apply boosting algorithms to the training of multi-scale GNNs for real-world node prediction tasks. We confirm that its performance is comparable to existing GNNs, and the practical behaviors are consistent with theoretical observations. Code is available at https://github.com/delta2323/GB-GNN.
Content Provider Dynamics and Coordination in Recommendation Ecosystems
Authors: Omer Ben-Porat, Itay Rosenberg, Moshe Tennenholtz

Abstract: Recommendation Systems like YouTube are vibrant ecosystems with two types of users: Content consumers (those who watch videos) and content providers (those who create videos). While the computational task of recommending relevant content is largely solved, designing a system that guarantees high social welfare for \textit{all} stakeholders is still in its infancy. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of content creation using a game-theoretic lens. Employing a stylized model that was recently suggested by other works, we show that the dynamics will always converge to a pure Nash Equilibrium (PNE), but the convergence rate can be exponential. We complement the analysis by proposing an efficient PNE computation algorithm via a  combinatorial optimization problem that is of independent interest.
Almost Surely Stable Deep Dynamics
Authors: Nathan Lawrence, Philip Loewen, Michael Forbes, Johan Backstrom, Bhushan Gopaluni

Abstract: We introduce a method for learning provably stable deep neural network based dynamic models from observed data. Specifically, we consider discrete-time stochastic dynamic models, as they are of particular interest in practical applications such as estimation and control. However, these aspects exacerbate the challenge of guaranteeing stability. Our method works by embedding a Lyapunov neural network into the dynamic model, thereby inherently satisfying the stability criterion. To this end, we propose two approaches and apply them in both the deterministic and stochastic settings: one exploits convexity of the Lyapunov function, while the other enforces stability through an implicit output layer. We demonstrate the utility of each approach through numerical examples.
Experimental design for MRI by greedy policy search
Authors: Tim Bakker, Herke van Hoof, Max Welling

Abstract: In today’s clinical practice, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is routinely accelerated through subsampling of the associated Fourier domain. Currently, the construction of these subsampling strategies - known as experimental design - relies primarily on heuristics. We propose to learn experimental design strategies for accelerated MRI with policy gradient methods. Unexpectedly, our experiments show that a simple greedy approximation of the objective leads to solutions nearly on-par with the more general non-greedy approach. We offer a partial explanation for this phenomenon rooted in greater variance in the non-greedy objective's gradient estimates, and experimentally verify that this variance hampers non-greedy models in adapting their policies to individual MR images. We empirically show that this adaptivity is key to improving subsampling designs.
Expert-Supervised Reinforcement Learning for Offline Policy Learning and Evaluation
Authors: Aaron Sonabend, Junwei Lu, Leo Anthony Celi, Tianxi Cai, Peter Szolovits

Abstract: Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a promising approach for learning optimal
policies in environments where direct exploration is expensive or unfeasible. However, the adoption of such policies in practice is often challenging, as they are hard
to interpret within the application context, and lack measures of uncertainty for the
learned policy value and its decisions. To overcome these issues, we propose an
Expert-Supervised RL (ESRL) framework which uses uncertainty quantification
for offline policy learning. In particular, we have three contributions: 1) the method
can learn safe and optimal policies through hypothesis testing, 2) ESRL allows for
different levels of risk averse implementations tailored to the application context,
and finally, 3) we propose a way to interpret ESRL’s policy at every state through
posterior distributions, and use this framework to compute off-policy value function
posteriors. We provide theoretical guarantees for our estimators and regret bounds
consistent with Posterior Sampling for RL (PSRL). Sample efficiency of ESRL
is independent of the chosen risk aversion threshold and quality of the behavior
policy.
ColdGANs: Taming Language GANs with Cautious Sampling Strategies
Authors: Thomas Scialom, Paul-Alexis Dray, Sylvain Lamprier, Benjamin Piwowarski, Jacopo Staiano

Abstract: We report experimental results obtained on three tasks: unconditional text generation, question generation, and abstractive summarization. For the first time, to the best of our knowledge, the proposed language GANs compare favorably to MLE, and obtain improvements over the state-of-the-art on the considered tasks.
Hedging in games: Faster convergence of external and swap regrets
Authors: Xi Chen, Binghui Peng

Abstract: We consider the setting where players run the Hedge algorithm or its optimistic variant \cite{syrgkanis2015fast} to play an n-action game repeatedly for T rounds.
1) For two-player games, we show that the regret of optimistic Hedge decays at \tilde{O}( 1/T ^{5/6} ), improving the previous bound O(1/T^{3/4}) by \cite{syrgkanis2015fast}.
2) In contrast, we show that the convergence rate of vanilla Hedge is no better than \tilde{\Omega}(1/ \sqrt{T})}, addressing an open question posted in \cite{syrgkanis2015fast}.
For general m-player games, we show that the swap regret of each player decays at rate \tilde{O}(m^{1/2} (n/T)^{3/4}) when they combine optimistic Hedge with the classical external-to-internal reduction of Blum and Mansour \cite{blum2007external}. The algorithm can also be modified to achieve the same rate against itself and a rate of \tilde{O}(\sqrt{n/T}) against adversaries. Via standard connections, our upper bounds also imply faster convergence to coarse correlated equilibria in two-player games and to correlated equilibria in multiplayer games.
The Origins and Prevalence of Texture Bias in Convolutional Neural Networks
Authors: Katherine Hermann, Ting Chen, Simon Kornblith

Abstract: Recent work has indicated that, unlike humans, ImageNet-trained CNNs tend to classify images by texture rather than by shape. How pervasive is this bias, and where does it come from? We find that, when trained on datasets of images with conflicting shape and texture, CNNs learn to classify by shape at least as easily as by texture. What factors, then, produce the texture bias in CNNs trained on ImageNet? Different unsupervised training objectives and different architectures have small but significant and largely independent effects on the level of texture bias. However, all objectives and architectures still lead to models that make texture-based classification decisions a majority of the time, even if shape information is decodable from their hidden representations. The effect of data augmentation is much larger. By taking less aggressive random crops at training time and applying simple, naturalistic augmentation (color distortion, noise, and blur), we train models that classify ambiguous images by shape a majority of the time, and outperform baselines on out-of-distribution test sets. Our results indicate that apparent differences in the way humans and ImageNet-trained CNNs process images may arise not primarily from differences in their internal workings, but from differences in the data that they see.
Time-Reversal Symmetric ODE Network
Authors: In Huh, Eunho Yang, Sung Ju Hwang, Jinwoo Shin

Abstract: Time-reversal symmetry, which requires that the dynamics of a system should not change with the reversal of time axis, is a fundamental property that frequently holds in classical and quantum mechanics. In this paper, we propose a novel loss function that measures how well our ordinary differential equation (ODE) networks comply with this time-reversal symmetry; it is formally defined by the discrepancy in the time evolutions of ODE networks between forward and backward dynamics. Then, we design a new framework, which we name as Time-Reversal Symmetric ODE Networks (TRS-ODENs), that can learn the dynamics of physical systems more sample-efficiently by learning with the proposed loss function. We evaluate TRS-ODENs on several classical dynamics, and find they can learn the desired time evolution from observed noisy and complex trajectories. We also show that, even for systems that do not possess the full time-reversal symmetry, TRS-ODENs can achieve better predictive performances over baselines.