PREDICT Act

Summary: Prevention and Deterrence of International Conflict Act of 1999 - Establishes the Task Force on Regional Threats to International Security.  Directs the Task Force to develop and execute plans, in cooperation with foreign allied governments when appropriate, for: (1) the active mediation of the United States to foster negotiations between or among foreign governments engaged in civil, ethnic, or geographic conflicts that increase the risk of the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction; (2) trade, economic reform, and investment programs of the United States to promote the market-based development of such countries to reduce incentives for the acquisition of such weapons; and (3) a revised and integrated network that gathers, analyzes, and transmits vital data to the President in advance of policy decisions related to such weapons.  Terminates the Task Force on October 1, 2001.

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

    This Act may be cited as the ``Prevention and Deterrence of 
International Conflict Act of 1999 (PREDICT)''.

SEC. 2. FINDINGS.

    Congress makes the following findings:
            (1) On August 24, 1997, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of 
        Staff assured Congress in writing that the acquisition of an 
        intercontinental ballistic missile capability by a rogue nation 
        without the detection of the United States intelligence 
        community would be an ``unlikely event''.
            (2) The United States intelligence community did not detect 
        the August 31, 1998 launching of an intercontinental multistage 
        rocket by the Government of the People's Democratic Republic of 
        Korea.
            (3) On May 11, 1998 and May 13, 1998, the Government of 
        India broke a 24-year voluntary moratorium by conducting 5 
        underground nuclear tests.
            (4) The Secretary of Defense predicted thereafter that 
        these tests by the Government of India could induce other 
        nations to obtain nuclear weapons technologies.
            (5) On May 28, 1998, the Government of Pakistan announced 
        that for the first time, it had conducted 5 underground nuclear 
        tests and acknowledged ongoing efforts to place nuclear 
        warheads on missiles capable of striking any target in India.
            (6) The Director of Central Intelligence has accepted the 
        June 2, 1998, findings of an independent investigation 
        revealing that the Central Intelligence Agency lacked adequate 
        analytical capabilities to detect the explosions in India 
        despite satellite-generated evidence to the contrary and 
        repeated declarations by representatives of the Government of 
        India of an intent to improve India's nuclear arsenal.
            (7) Written assessments by the United States Air Force and 
        the Central Intelligence Agency conflicted on the issue of 
        whether the May 10, 1996 transmission to the Government of 
        China of a private industry report exploring the potential 
        causes of an earlier rocket crash contained information that 
        may advance the capabilities of China to launch missiles 
        equipped with nuclear warheads.
            (8) The President did not receive or review the Air Force 
        assessment prior to his February 18, 1998, approval of a 
        license for the export of a commercial satellite to China.
            (9) A March 11, 1998, report by the National Air 
        Intelligence Center concluded that Chinese strategic missiles 
        equipped with nuclear warheads pose a threat to the United 
        States.

SEC. 3. ESTABLISHMENT AND COMPOSITION OF THE TASK FORCE.

    (a) Establishment.--Not later than 60 days after the date of 
enactment of this Act, the President shall establish the Task Force on 
Regional Threats to International Security (in this Act referred to as 
the ``Task Force'').
    (b) Composition.--The Task Force shall consist of--
            (1) one official of the Department of State, who shall be 
        appointed by the Secretary of State;
            (2) one official of the Department of Defense, who shall be 
        appointed by the Secretary of Defense;
            (3) one official of the Department of Commerce, who shall 
        be appointed by the Secretary of Commerce;
            (4) one official each of any appropriate United States 
        agency (as defined in section 551(1) of title 5, United States 
        Code) designated by the President, who shall be appointed by 
        the head of the agency; and
            (5) one official each of any appropriate agency, entity, or 
        component of the intelligence community (as defined in section 
        3 of the National Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. 401a)) 
        designated by the President, who shall be appointed by the 
        agency, entity, or component, as the case may be.

SEC. 4. DUTIES OF THE TASK FORCE.

    (a) In General.--Under the direction of the President, the Task 
Force shall develop and execute plans, in cooperation with foreign 
allied governments when appropriate, for--
            (1) the active mediation of the United States to foster 
        negotiations between or among foreign governments engaged in 
        civil, ethnic, or geographic conflicts that increase the risk 
        of the acquisition, testing, or the deployment of weapons of 
        mass destruction;
            (2) trade, economic reform, and investment programs of the 
        United States to promote the market-based development of the 
        countries described in paragraph (1) to reduce incentives for 
        the acquisition or use of such weapons; and
            (3) a revised and integrated intelligence network that 
        gathers, analyzes, and transmits all vital data to the 
        President in advance of policy decisions related to such 
        weapons.
    (b) Reports.--Beginning 6 months after the date of enactment of 
this Act, and every 6 months thereafter, the Task Force shall submit a 
report to Congress on the progress made during the preceding 6 months 
in carrying out its responsibilities pursuant to paragraphs (1), (2), 
and (3) of subsection (a).

SEC. 5. TERMINATION OF TASK FORCE AUTHORITY.

    The Task Force shall terminate on October 1, 2001.