Question: Does the methodology in this paper perform better than a random classifier?
Evidence: We performed classification experiments using a basic off-the-shelf classifier, namely Logistic Regression (LR) with L2 penalty; this also allows us to compare results with our baseline. We applied a standardization of the features and we used the default configuration for parameters as described in scikit-learn package BIBREF33. We also tested other classifiers (such as K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines and Random Forest) but we omit results as they give comparable performances. We remark that our goal is to show that a very simple machine learning framework, with no parameter tuning and optimization, allows for accurate results with our network-based approach.
We used the following evaluation metrics to assess the performances of different classifiers (TP=true positives, FP=false positives, FN=false negatives):
Precision = $\frac{TP}{TP+FP}$, the ability of a classifier not to label as positive a negative sample.
Recall = $\frac{TP}{TP+FN}$, the ability of a classifier to retrieve all positive samples.
F1-score = $2 \frac{\mbox{Precision} \cdot \mbox{Recall}}{\mbox{Precision} + \mbox{Recall}}$, the harmonic average of Precision and Recall.
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC); the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve BIBREF34, which plots the TP rate versus the FP rate, shows the ability of a classifier to discriminate positive samples from negative ones as its threshold is varied; the AUROC value is in the range $[0, 1]$, with the random baseline classifier holding AUROC$=0.5$ and the ideal perfect classifier AUROC$=1$; thus larger AUROC values (and steeper ROCs) correspond to better classifiers.
In particular we computed so-called macro average–simple unweighted mean–of these metrics evaluated considering both labels (disinformation and mainstream). We employed stratified shuffle split cross validation (with 10 folds) to evaluate performances.
Finally, we partitioned networks according to the total number of unique users involved in the sharing, i.e. the number of nodes in the aggregated network represented with a single-layer representation considering together all layers and also pure tweets. A breakdown of both datasets according to size class (and political biases for the US scenario) is provided in Table 1 and Table 2.
In Table 3 we first provide classification performances on the US dataset for the LR classifier evaluated on the size class described in Table 1. We can observe that in all instances our methodology performs better than a random classifier (50% AUROC), with AUROC values above 85% in all cases.
For what concerns political biases, as the classes of mainstream and disinformation networks are not balanced (e.g., 1,292 mainstream and 4,149 disinformation networks with right bias) we employ a Balanced Random Forest with default parameters (as provided in imblearn Python package BIBREF35). In order to test the robustness of our methodology, we trained only on left-biased networks or right-biased networks and tested on the entire set of sources (relative to the US dataset); we provide a comparison of AUROC values for both biases in Figure 4. We can notice that our multi-layer approach still entails significant results, thus showing that it can accurately distinguish mainstream news from disinformation regardless of the political bias. We further corroborated this result with additional classification experiments, that show similar performances, in which we excluded from the training/test set two specific sources (one at a time and both at the same time) that outweigh the others in terms of data samples–respectively "breitbart.com" for right-biased sources and "politicususa.com" for left-biased ones.
We performed classification experiments on the Italian dataset using the LR classifier and different size classes (we excluded $[1000, +\infty )$ which is empty); we show results for different evaluation metrics in Table 3. We can see that despite the limited number of samples (one order of magnitude smaller than the US dataset) the performances are overall in accordance with the US scenario. As shown in Table 4, we obtain results which are much better than our baseline in all size classes (see Table 4):
In the US dataset our multi-layer methodology performs much better in all size classes except for large networks ($[1000, +\infty )$ size class), reaching up to 13% improvement on smaller networks ($[0, 100)$ size class);
In the IT dataset our multi-layer methodology outperforms the baseline in all size classes, with the maximum performance gain (20%) on medium networks ($[100, 1000)$ size class); the baseline generally reaches bad performances compared to the US scenario.
Overall, our performances are comparable with those achieved by two state-of-the-art deep learning models for "fake news" detection BIBREF9BIBREF36.
In order to understand the impact of each layer on the performances of classifiers, we performed additional experiments considering separately each layer (we ignored T and U features relative to pure tweets). In Table 5 we show metrics for each layer and all size classes, computed with a 10-fold stratified shuffle split cross validation, evaluated on the US dataset; in Figure 5 we show AUROC values for each layer compared with the general multi-layer approach. We can notice that both Q and M layers alone capture adequately the discrepancies of the two distinct news domains in the United States as they obtain good results with AUROC values in the range 75%-86%; these are comparable with those of the multi-layer approach which, nevertheless, outperforms them across all size classes.
We obtained similar performances for the Italian dataset, as the M layer obtains comparable performances w.r.t multi-layer approach with AUROC values in the range 72%-82%. We do not show these results for sake of conciseness.
We further investigated the importance of each feature by performing a $\chi ^2$ test, with 10-fold stratified shuffle split cross validation, considering the entire range of network sizes $[0, +\infty )$. We show the Top-5 most discriminative features for each country in Table 6.
We can notice the exact same set of features (with different relative orderings in the Top-3) in both countries; these correspond to two global network propertie–LWCC, which indicates the size of the largest cascade in the layer, and SCC, which correlates with the size of the network–associated to the same set of layers (Quotes, Retweets and Mentions).
We further performed a $\chi ^2$ test to highlight the most discriminative features in the M layer of both countries, which performed equally well in the classification task as previously highlighted; also in this case we focused on the entire range of network sizes $[0, +\infty )$. Interestingly, we discovered exactly the same set of Top-3 features in both countries, namely LWCC, SCC and DWCC (which indicates the depth of the largest cascade in the layer).
An inspection of the distributions of all aforementioned features revealed that disinformation news exhibit on average larger values than mainstream news.
We can qualitatively sum up these results as follows:
Sharing patterns in the two news domains exhibit discrepancies which might be country-independent and due to the content that is being shared.
Interactions in disinformation sharing cascades tends to be broader and deeper than in mainstream news, as widely reported in the literature BIBREF8BIBREF2BIBREF7.
Users likely make a different usage of mentions when sharing news belonging to the two domains, consequently shaping different sharing patterns.
Similar to BIBREF9, we carried out additional experiments to answer the following question: how long do we need to observe a news spreading on Twitter in order to accurately classify it as disinformation or mainstream?
With this goal, we built several versions of our original dataset of multi-layer networks by considering in turn the following lifetimes: 1 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, 1 day, 2 days, 3 days and 7 days; for each case, we computed the global network properties of the corresponding network and evaluated the LR classifier with 10-fold cross validation, separately for each lifetime (and considering always the entire set of networks). We show corresponding AUROC values for both US and IT datasets in Figure 6.
We can see that in both countries news diffusion networks can be accurately classified after just a few hours of spreading, with AUROC values which are larger than 80% after only 6 hours of diffusion. These results are very promising and suggest that articles pertaining to the two news domains exhibit discrepancies in their sharing patterns that can be timely exploited in order to rapidly detect misleading items from factual information.
We can observe that in all instances our methodology performs better than a random classifier (50% AUROC), with AUROC values above 85% in all cases.
Answer: Yes, it does.