Question: Why predicting human behavior is challenging?
Evidence: While the demand for physical and manual labor is gradually declining, there is a growing need for a workforce with soft skills. Which soft skill do you think would be the most valuable in your daily life? According to an article in Forbes BIBREF0 , 70% of employed Americans agree that public speaking skills are critical to their success at work. Yet, it is one of the most dreaded acts. Many people rate the fear of public speaking even higher than the fear of death BIBREF1 . To alleviate the situation, several automated systems are now available that can quantify behavioral data for participants to reflect on BIBREF2 . Predicting the viewers' ratings from the speech transcripts would enable these systems to generate feedback on the potential audience behavior.
Predicting human behavior, however, is challenging due to its huge variability and the way the variables interact with each other. Running Randomized Control Trials (RCT) to decouple each variable is not always feasible and also expensive. It is possible to collect a large amount of observational data due to the advent of content sharing platforms such as YouTube, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC), or ted.com. However, the uncontrolled variables in the observational dataset always keep a possibility of incorporating the effects of the “data bias” into the prediction model. Recently, the problems of using biased datasets are becoming apparent. BIBREF3 showed that the error rates in the commercial face-detectors for the dark-skinned females are 43 times higher than the light-skinned males due to the bias in the training dataset. The unfortunate incident of Google's photo app tagging African-American people as “Gorilla” BIBREF4 also highlights the severity of this issue.
We address the data bias issue as much as possible by carefully analyzing the relationships of different variables in the data generating process. We use a Causal Diagram BIBREF5 , BIBREF6 to analyze and remove the effects of the data bias (e.g., the speakers' reputations, popularity gained by publicity, etc.) in our prediction model. In order to make the prediction model less biased to the speakers' race and gender, we confine our analysis to the transcripts only. Besides, we normalize the ratings to remove the effects of the unwanted variables such as the speakers' reputations, publicity, contemporary hot topics, etc.
For our analysis, we curate an observational dataset of public speech transcripts and other meta-data collected from the ted.com website. This website contains a large collection of high-quality public speeches that are freely available to watch, share, rate, and comment on. Every day, numerous people watch and annotate their perceptions about the talks. Our dataset contains 2231 public speech transcripts and over 5 million ratings from the spontaneous viewers of the talks. The viewers annotate each talk by 14 different labels—Beautiful, Confusing, Courageous, Fascinating, Funny, Informative, Ingenious, Inspiring, Jaw-Dropping, Long-winded, Obnoxious, OK, Persuasive, and Unconvincing.
We use two neural network architectures in the prediction task. In the first architecture, we use LSTM BIBREF7 for a sequential input of the words within the sentences of the transcripts. In the second architecture, we use TreeLSTM BIBREF8 to represent the input sentences in the form of a dependency tree. Our experiments show that the dependency tree-based model can predict the TED talk ratings with slightly higher performance (average F-score 0.77) than the word sequence model (average F-score 0.76). To the best of our knowledge, this is the best performance in the literature on predicting the TED talk ratings. We compare the performances of these two models with a baseline of classical machine learning techniques using hand-engineered features. We find that the neural networks largely outperform the classical methods. We believe this gain in performance is achieved by the networks' ability to capture better the natural relationship of the words (as compared to the hand engineered feature selection approach in the baseline methods) and the correlations among different rating labels.
Predicting human behavior, however, is challenging due to its huge variability and the way the variables interact with each other.
Answer: Predicting human behavior, however, is challenging due to its huge variability and the way the variables interact with each other.