Residential mobility and the realignment of electoral politics in established democracies (RESPOL)

Framework: Horizon Europe — Excellent Science
Programme: European Research Council (ERC)
Theme: European research council
Destination: Starting grants
Action type: ERC actions
Panel: Institutions, Governance and Legal Systems
Panel description: Political science, international relations, law
Countries involved: Germany
Call: ERC STARTING GRANTS (ERC-2024-STG, 2024)
Start date: 2025-10-01
End date: 2030-09-30
Duration (months): 60.0
Total project cost (EUR): 1442383.75
EU funding (EUR): 1442383.75
Participants: 1
Project status: SIGNED

Polarization over cultural issues and the rise of the populist radical right indicate a fundamental realignment of electoral politics in established democracies around a new political cleavage characterized by an antagonism between parochial and cosmopolitan values. RESPOL introduces residential mobility as a fundamental determinant of these developments. In advancing a novel research agenda on residential mobility, the project also integrates and provides new perspectives on existing research. Residential mobility exceeds the volume of international migration, on which much research on the rise of the radical right focuses, by a factor of three. Although its significance is recognized in demography and psychology, residential mobility has yet to be widely recognized in political science. Psychological research considers residential mobility an essential driver of cultural change and has shown how mobile communities foster individualism and tolerance through frequent interactions with strangers. In contrast, immobile communities promote stability and stronger social ties but intensify perceptions of in-group and out-group differences. The relevance of these observations has been highlighted in the wake of `Brexit,' framed by some as a confrontation between rooted `somewheres' and mobile `anywheres,' but the political impact of residential mobility lacks systematic study. Drawing on research in psychology and social capital theory, the project will develop a comprehensive theoretical account of how residential mobility affects political attitudes and behavior to explain electoral realignment in established democracies. The project will use innovative combinations of cross- and sub-national data on residential mobility and political outcomes to systematically test its theoretical propositions at the individual and aggregate levels. In doing so, RESPOL promises to significantly advance our understanding of the evolution of political conflict in electoral democracies. We postpone the start of the project until after 30 September 2025. In this case there would be no ambiguity about my engagement by Chemnitz University of Technology. Regarding the groundbreaking nature of the project: As outlined in my proposal, to date there are only three journal publications in demography/geography and one journalistic book on the potential influence of residential mobility on political opinions or voting choices, none of which are able to provide the causal evidence that my project aims to provide. I am not aware of any new publications that have come out since I submitted my proposal. As outlined in my proposal, I am only aware of two unpublished working papers on the political effects of residential mobility, one of which I co-authored. The author of the other working paper seems to be more interested in the effects of residential mobility on civic and political engagement than on political attitudes and voting or electoral realignment more broadly. As for the specifics of my research proposal, nothing in the research design requires that the project begin at any particular point in time. The proposal calls for unique survey work to be conducted in Germany, Sweden, and the United States. Given the 5-year duration of the project and the maximum 4-year term lengths for national legislatures and/or executive branches in Germany, Sweden, and the U.S., I am guaranteed to be able to cover at least one national election per country case study with a unique survey, regardless of the start date of the project. In summary, I am optimistic that a later start date would not negatively impact the groundbreaking nature of the project.