Projet CAFE (Horizon 2020, appel à projets 2018)
Action : Doctoral Networks
Panel : Environment and Geosciences
Statut du projet : CLOSED

Climate extremes such as heat waves or tropical storms have huge social and economic impact. The forecasting of such extreme events at the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to 3 months) is challenging. Since the atmosphere and the ocean are coupled systems of enormous complexity, in order to advance sub-seasonal predictability of extreme events, it is crucial to train a new kind of interdisciplinary top-level researchers. CAFE research is structured in three WP: Atmospheric and oceanic processes, Extreme events and Tools for predictability, and brings together an interdisciplinary team of scientists. Objectives: Study of the relation between RWPs and the large scale environment, and the resulting limit of predictability; Statistical characterization of MJO events, dependence on climatic factors, and simple modelling to evaluate predictability; Development of diagnosis tools for identification and tracking of the MJO, blocking, waves and oceanic structures; Analysis of climatic changes in weather patterns and their relation with new climatic phenomena and extreme events in Europe; Estimation of probabilities for severe damages due to extreme events associated to ENSO; Validation of the hypothesis of cascades of extreme events and effects of a non-stationary climate; Estimation of exceedance probabilities for intensity of severe atmospheric events, including windstorms and hurricanes; Assessment of the response of extreme weather events for different levels of stabilized global warming and comparison with their response to internal modes of climate variability; Development of a procedure to improve the predictability of the onset of monsoon; Advanced statistical analysis of dynamic associations between SSS and extreme precipitation events; Study of predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns over the Mediterranean connected to extreme weather; Systematic quantification of the predictability potential of a SWG of analogues of atmospheric circulation.

Mots clés : sub seasonal predictability, extreme events statistics, time series analysis, coherent structures, weather patterns

Participants :
- TU Bergakademie Freiberg (Allemagne) — Partner, beneficiary, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 252788.4 €
- Servei meterologic de catalunya (Espagne) — Partner, organization partner, Organismes publics (hors enseignement & recherche), subvention : 0.0 €
- Leibniz Association (Allemagne) — Partner, beneficiary, Recherche, subvention : 252788.4 €
- Université de Toulouse (France) — Partner, organization partner, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 0.0 €
- University of the Republic (Uruguay) — Partner, beneficiary, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 237837.96 €
- Max Planck Society (Allemagne) — Partner, beneficiary, Recherche, subvention : 252788.4 €
- Predictia intelligent data solutions sl (Espagne) — Partner, organization partner, Organismes privés (hors enseignement), subvention : 0.0 €
- Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (France) — Partner, organization partner, Recherche, subvention : 0.0 €
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (Allemagne) — Partner, organization partner, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 0.0 €
- TU Dresden (Allemagne) — Partner, organization partner, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 0.0 €
- Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (Espagne) — Partner, beneficiary, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 250904.88 €
- Spanish National Research Council (Espagne) — Partner, beneficiary, Recherche, subvention : 250904.88 €
- Suez aria technologies (France) — Partner, beneficiary, Organismes privés (hors enseignement), subvention : 274802.04 €
- Météo-France (France) — Partner, beneficiary, Recherche, subvention : 274802.04 €
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Royaume-Uni) — Partner, beneficiary, Recherche, subvention : 606345.12 €
- Munchener ruckversicherungs-gesellschaft ag (Allemagne) — Partner, organization partner, Organismes privés (hors enseignement), subvention : 0.0 €
- Autonomous University of Barcelona (Espagne) — Partner, organization partner, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 0.0 €
- Universitat de les Illes Balears (Espagne) — Partner, organization partner, Enseignement supérieur ou secondaire, subvention : 0.0 €
- CERCA Institution (Espagne) — Coordinator, beneficiary, Recherche, subvention : 501809.76 €
- Guy carpenter (Royaume-Uni) — Partner, organization partner, Organismes privés (hors enseignement), subvention : 0.0 €