Economic Sanctions and The Sanctions Paradox: A Post-Sample Validation of Daniel Drezner’s Conflict Expectations Model
Journal: Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)
Year: 2013

Abstract: Daniel Drezner’s 1999 book The Sanctions Paradox used case studies from the former Soviet Union in the 1990s to test his game-theoretic model—the Conflict Expectations Model--of sanctions behavior. The model purports to help predict whether or not a “sender” will resort to economic sanctions to extract concessions from a “target” and whether the target will concede or resist. The model explained quite well the amount of concessions demanded by Russia in the 1990s and the degree of comp