Species Distribution Modeling of Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758) Under Current and Future Climates, with a Special Focus on Latvia and Ukraine
Journal: Climate
Year: 2024

This study assesses the impact of climate change on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus, which transmits Lyme disease, a growing public health concern. Utilizing ensemble models from the R package ‘flexsdm’ and climate data from WorldClim, ENVIREM, and CliMond, we project habitat suitability changes for the focus species. The models, validated against Lyme disease incidence rates, predict a 1.5-fold increase in suitable habitats in Latvia, contrasted with a 4.5-fold decrease in suitable habitats