Russian Forecasting and Pre-emption: The Prelude to the Invasion of Ukraine
Journal: Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies
Year: 2025

This article draws on the available Russian unclassified military academic literature to offer an account of the Russian threat perception, and the countermeasures instituted in response, that led to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. While perhaps surprising to many, Russian threat perception in the period from the late 2000s to 2022 focused on a perceived threat of hybrid warfare from the West. From a Russian perspective, the &ldquo;Arab Spring&rdquo; and &ldquo;color revolutions&rdquo; in the post