Divergent trajectories of Arctic change: Implications for future socio-economic patterns
Journal: AMBIO
Year: 2024

Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts' expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 20