Rethinking change in Japan's security policy: punctuated equilibrium theory and Japan's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Year: 2024

Change in Japanese foreign and security policy has long been characterized as “incremental”. However, Japan’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine provides an opportunity to reconsider this paradigm. In the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea, then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzō chose not to put Crimea on the agenda, prioritizing instead relations with Russia. However, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio responded to the 2022 invasion by increasing ties with NATO, promising to double Japan’s