The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework: implication for Ukraine
Journal: Graduate Institute Geneva Institutional Repository (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)
Year: 2024

Using data for the Ukrainian economy, we applied and adapted the growth-at-risk (GaR) framework to examine the association between financial conditions, credit and sectors' activity, and external conditions and the probability distribution of GDP growth in Ukraine. We applied CSA and PCA approaches to construct indices of these partitions. We further derived GDP growth distributions and explored their behavior under different scenarios. Results from the model with PCA indices suggest that the re