I still haven't found what I'm looking for: Predicting security-related incidents and conflict fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia data
Year: 2025

Conflict forecasting has seen two recent developments: a shift to predicting continuous variables and a debate about the value of structural and procedural variables. This paper contributes to these efforts and proposes the category of salience variables in the form of Google Trends and Wikipedia data. Internet searches can be precursors of conflict intensity as a result of e.g. an increase in protests, violent behavior, or public announcements. Data are readily and openly available, updated in