Beyond the Binary: A New Typology for Evaluating Warning Success and Failure in Strategic Surprise
Journal: International Studies Review
Year: 2025

Abstract Why do some intelligence warning processes succeed in anticipating surprise while others fail? This article challenges the binary perspective on warning success and warning failure prevalent in extant analyses, which it contends ignores the complexity of warning processes and their outcomes. Its main thesis is that warning success rather exists on a spectrum of outcomes from full success to complete failure. To support this argument, this article introduces a novel, multidimensional typ