The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: the case of Russia
Journal: Documentos de trabajo/Documento de trabajo - Banco de España, Servicio de Estudios
Year: 2022

We show how policy uncertainty and conflict-related shocks impact the dynamics of economic activity (GDP) in Russia. We use alternative indicators of “conflict”, relating to specific aspects of this general concept: geopolitical risk, social unrest, outbreaks of political violence and escalations into internal armed conflict. For policy uncertainty we employ the workhorse economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indicator. We use two distinct but complementary empirical approaches. The first is based o