Macroeconomic shocks, political stability and public policy: Determinants of tourism arrivals in Peru (2003-2023)
Journal: Investigaciones Turísticas
Year: 2026

Following the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, an augmented Vector Autoregression (VAR) model was estimated to conduct Granger non-causality tests. This paper explores how macroeconomic volatility—driven by oil prices, exchange rate fluctuations, political instability, and inflation—and public tourism policies, including PROMPERÚ’s promotional campaigns and COPESCO infrastructure projects, influenced international tourist arrivals to Peru (2003–2023). The results show that oil prices and exchange rate f