Expecting the Unexpected
Journal: Eldorado - Repository of the TU Dortmund (TU Dortmund University)
Year: 2020

The phenomenon of economic uncertainty has attracted considerable attention in recent years. New indicators have been introduced aiming at measuring uncertainty and its potential economic consequences. Still, the Corona pandemic has hit the world economy virtually out of the blue. In this paper, we argue that, while it is clear that true uncertainty, by definition, cannot be forecasted, better early warning systems could be built. To further this goal, we propose a new taxonomy of economic uncer