The Brightening Sky and the Bug's Advance: Unraveling the Drivers of Oxycarenus lavaterae Range Expansion
Year: 2025

Analyzing the Lime Seed Bug's (Oxycarenus lavaterae) European range expansion, optimized Maxent models and comprehensive occurrence data (2007-2025) reveal a swift northward and eastward spread, with a distinct "rapid expansion" phase starting in 2017. Key drivers include minimum and maximum temperatures, and importantly, downward shortwave radiation (DSR). Increased DSR, linked to "global brightening" from reduced air pollution since the 1990s, provides crucial thermal benefits. This enables th