Utility-based predictions of military escalation: Why experts forecasted Russia would not invade Ukraine
Journal: Contemporary Security Policy
Year: 2023

When Russia amassed troops in the winter of 2021-2022, many analysts deemed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine unlikely.Surveying the expert literature, we establish that these arguments largely relied on utility-based reasoning: Analysts thought an invasion was improbable, as it would foreseeably entail massive costs for Russia, its people, and its regime.We show that this regnant expert opinion had not sufficiently accounted for the Russian regime's tendencies to increasingly accept risks, coup