Competition, Procurement and Learning-By-Doing in the Space Launch Industry
Journal: National Bureau of Economic Research
Year: 2026

We estimate a dynamic model of the U.S. space launch industry.The model allows past launches to improve rocket reliability and lower launch costs.It also allows the government to make forwardlooking procurement choices.We use the model to analyze policy-relevant issues in the recent history of the industry: the 2006 United Launch Alliance "merger-to-monopoly" and the effects of efficiencies in the form of learning synergies; innovations, such as SpaceX's Falcon 9 and ULA's recent introduction of