Prospect Theory, Groupthink, and Amplified Frames of Loss: Making Sense of Russia's Decision to Invade Ukraine
Journal: Foreign Policy Analysis
Year: 2025

Abstract Russia's invasion of Ukraine entails extreme political risks for the Kremlin. The article explores how the decision to invade Ukraine, taken by Putin and his core group of advisers, can be explained. Focusing on psychological approaches to foreign policy, the article integrates prospect theory and groupthink perspectives. The argument is that groupthink tends to amplify risk-taking frames in the domain of loss, making frame reversal unlikely. The case study first traces indications of h