Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick, <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> (Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia
Journal: bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Year: 2024

Abstract This study assesses the impact of climate change on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks, that is transmitting Lyme disease, a growing public health concern. Utilizing ensemble models from the R package flexsdm and climate data from WorldClim, ENVIREM, and CliMond, we project habitat suitability changes for the focus species. The models, validated against Lyme disease incidence rates, predicted a 1.5-fold increase in suitable habitats in Latvia opposite to a 4.5-fold decrease in sui