The Big One: Understanding Risk in an Uncertain World.
Journal: Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University)
Year: 2025

In today’s unstable nuclear multipolar world, issuing threats —both physical and verbal—has become central feature of strategic interactions between nuclear-armed states. "In a nuclear world filled with noise, policymakers often struggle to discern which threats are real and require urgent attention, and which are merely posturing or signaling." This thesis develops and explores a risk-based framework that might help policy makers gain much needed clarity. The framework is applied in this thesis