ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC COST OF WAR, UKRAINE (2014-2023): SYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD
Journal: Economy of Ukraine
Year: 2025

This study applies the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to measure Ukraine’s economic output loss caused by the Russo-Ukrainian War since 2014. We create a “synthetic Ukraine” from a weighted mix of 18 regional peer countries using GDP per capita (PPP) data from 1996 to 2023. The weights for each donor country are calibrated so that the SCM accurately replicates Ukraine’s pre-2014 GDP trend from 1996 to 2013 (before the war). These pre-war weights are then applied to estimate the synthetic control