Victory or frozen conflict? Assessing the feasibility of Ukraine’s victory-oriented strategy to conflict termination
Journal: European Journal of International Security
Year: 2026

Abstract Can Ukraine avoid a frozen conflict with Russia, and could it have done so with more Western aid and victory in the war? Drawing on the Klosek et al. (2021) dataset of frozen conflicts, the paper outlines five criteria that are necessary to bring a frozen conflict to a military end. Two counterfactual scenarios explore whether increased or accelerated Western aid could have enabled Ukraine to meet these criteria. The analysis concludes that even with substantial Western assistance, Ukra