Global Crude Oil Prices: A Blessing, a Curse, or a Crisis-Driven Force? A New Analysis for Turkey
Journal: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Year: 2025

This paper examines the relationship between global crude oil price volatility (COP) and industrial production (IP) in Turkey, using monthly data from 1986:02 to 2023:12 and applying the time-varying Granger causality (TV-GC) analysis. The empirical results indicate that the causal relationship is highly dynamic, changing over time rather than remaining constant. Specifically, while the FE window results primarily detects causality at the beginning and end of the sample period, the RO and RE win