Historical analogies as markers of decisions: an LLM-assisted analysis in foreign policy
Journal: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
Year: 2026

Historical analogies recur in leaders’ discourse during crises as policymakers rely on familiar frameworks to navigate complex foreign-policy decisions and to create a sense of continuity amid unprecedented challenges. To date, scholars have typically treated such analogies either as cognitive “cozy” frames that simplify choice under pressure or as rhetorical devices that legitimate action. This article advances a third perspective: historical analogies as markers of emerging choices. It asks wh