Forecasting Political Risks: Modern Models and their Efficiency in the Conditions of “Black Swans”
Journal: European Political and Law Discourse
Year: 2025

The article is devoted to a critical analysis of modern methods for forecasting political risks and their ability to adapt to conditions of high uncertainty, particularly to the emergence of "black swan" events.The aim of the study is to identify the limitations of traditional quantitative and qualitative models of political risk analysis and to systematize the latest approaches aimed at enhancing the resilience of political and socio-economic systems.The methodology is based on a systems approa