Counterfactual coercion: Could harsher sanctions against Russia have prevented the worst?
Journal: Research Square
Year: 2023

Abstract Recent studies show that properly designed economic sanctions can force the target to refrain from violating international norms. However, policy-makers are not enabled to integrate this finding in their ex ante assessments whether more intensive coercive measures could prevent military coups, human rights violations, or a war of aggression such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this article, we address this shortcoming of the conflict forecasting literature and introduce counterfa