Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking
Journal: Edinburgh University Press eBooks
Year: 2022

This book provides the first assessment of the performance of estimative intelligence by three leading European polities during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise of Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intel