Effects of Oil Shocks on the Trade Balance of Azerbaijan: Evidence from the TVP-VAR Model
Journal: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Year: 2025

This study examines the effect of oil shocks on Azerbaijan’s trade balance using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, drawing on monthly data from December 1994 to November 2024. The results indicate that the negative effects of oil production shocks on Azerbaijan’s trade balance exhibit considerable variation over time and that these adverse impacts become statistically significant in the post-COVID-19 period, indicating a heightened sensitivity of the trade balance t