Nuclear war as a predictable surprise
Journal: Global Policy
Year: 2022

Abstract Like asteroids, hundred‐year floods and pandemic disease, thermonuclear war is a low‐frequency, high‐impact threat. In the long run, catastrophe is inevitable if nothing is done − yet each successive government and generation may fail to address it. Drawing on risk perception research, this paper argues that psychological biases cause the threat of nuclear war to receive less attention than it deserves. Nuclear deterrence is, moreover, a ‘front‐loaded good’: its benefits accrue dispropo