Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade
Journal: IMF Working Paper
Year: 2023

Are we really witnessing the death of globalization? A multitude of shocks over the past three years has unsettled the conventional wisdom on economic integration and fueled widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Using an extensive dataset with more than 4 million observations, I develop an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows among 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948-2021 and find that the much-debated geopolitical alignment between countries has contradi