Redefining Defence Expenditures in B9 Countries:A Risk-Based Model for Rational Allocation under Foreign Threat Scenarios
Journal: Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Year: 2025

The article proposes a risk-based model for rational defence expenditure in NATO’s Bucharest Nine (B9) countries that integrates socioeconomic variables and challenges the 2 %-of-GDP benchmark. It contends that optimal funding should reflect both national wealth and the probability and expected consequences of a foreign attack. Applying a quantitative model spanning 2001–2024, with emphasis on the post-2014 environment after Russia’s seizure of Crimea, the authors correlate actual spending with