Between wars and words: how international conflict shapes discourse of non-belligerent political leaders
Journal: Working Paper Series
Year: 2026

Does the outbreak of a major international war change political discourse? Drawing on theories of political communication and elite cueing, identity salience, and threat perception, we hypothesize that the outbreak of a war of aggression by a major power increases the use of nationalist rhetoric by heads of government in other, non-belligerent, states. To test this hypothesis, we analyse over 10,000 tweets by heads of government from 130 countries before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine