Empirically Testing Predictions of an Attrition Warfare Model for the War in Ukraine
Year: 2023

The goal of this study is to empirically test hypotheses about wars of attrition by evaluating their predictions for the conflict in the Ukraine. Evaluation will occur after the war is over and authoritative data sources become available for analysis.This pre-registration document presents two quantitative hypotheses that make opposite predictions about the course of the War in Ukraine: (1) the Economic Power hypothesis, which predicts a win for Ukraine and (2) the Casualties Rates hypothesis, w