Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine? Why Did Hamas Attack Israel? Answers Suggested by Economic Models of Dictatorship and Terrorism
Journal: The Economists Voice
Year: 2025

Abstract In this paper I use rational economic models to explain the origins of two recent wars, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 and the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023. In both cases the literature has prominently featured two different kinds of motivations for the attacks, one offensive and one defensive. Did Russia invade Ukraine because it was afraid that Ukraine was getting too strong and too close to NATO and Russia was weakened by this? Or did it invade because Putin thought that