title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump claimed in October 2017 he would eliminate the federal debt over eight years, even though it was $19 trillion at the time. However, the annual deficit (debt addition) in 2018 was nearly $800 billion, about 60% higher than the CBO forecast of $500 billion when Trump took office. The CBO January 2019 forecast for the 2018–2027 debt addition is now 40% higher, at $13.0 trillion rather than $9.4 trillion when Trump was inaugurated. Other forecasts place the debt addition over a decade at $16 trillion, bringing the total to around $35 trillion. Rather than a debt to GDP ratio in 2028 of 89% had Obama's policies continued, CBO now estimates this figure at 107%, assuming Trump's tax cuts for individuals are extended past 2025.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump sought to present his economic policies as successful in encouraging businesses to invest in new facilities and create jobs. In this effort, he took credit on several occasions for business investments that began before he became president.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump repeatedly claimed that China or Chinese exporters were bearing the burden of his tariffs, not Americans, a claim PolitiFact rated as "false". Studies indicate U.S. consumers and purchasers of imports are bearing the cost and that tariffs are essentially a regressive tax. For example, CBO reported in January 2020 that: "Tariffs are expected to reduce the level of [U.S.] real GDP by roughly 0.5 percent and raise consumer prices by 0.5 percent in 2020. As a result, tariffs are also projected to reduce average real household income by $1,277 (in 2019 dollars) in 2020." While Trump has argued that tariffs would reduce the trade deficit, it expanded to a record dollar level in 2018.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump repeatedly claimed that the U.S. had a $500 billion annual trade deficit with China before his presidency; the actual deficit never reached $400 billion prior to his presidency.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: The following table illustrates some of the key economic variables in the last three years of the Obama Administration (2014–2016) and the first three years of the Trump Administration (2017–2019). Trump often claimed the economy was doing better than it was when he was elected.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: President Trump repeatedly and falsely said he inherited his administration's family separation policy from Obama, his predecessor. In November 2018, Trump said, "President Obama separated children from families, and all I did was take the same law, and then I softened the law." In April 2019, Trump said, "President Obama separated children. They had child separation; I was the one that changed it." In June 2019, Trump said, "President Obama had a separation policy. I didn't have it. He had it. I brought the families together. I'm the one that put them together... I inherited separation, and I changed the plan". Trump's assertion was false because the Obama administration had no policy systematically separating migrant families, while "zero tolerance" was not instituted until April 2018. PolitiFact quoted immigration experts saying that under the Obama administration families were detained and released together and separations rarely happened.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In July 2019, during a speech addressing youth at Turning Point USA Teen Student Action Summit in Washington, "The Washington Post" reported that, while criticizing the Mueller investigation, Trump falsely claimed Article Two of the United States Constitution ensures, "I have the right to do whatever I want as president". The "Post" clarified that "Article II grants the president 'executive power'. It does not indicate the president has total power".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: As Hurricane Dorian approached the Atlantic coast in late August 2019, Trump presented himself as closely monitoring the situation, tweeting extensively about it as "The New York Times" reported he was "assuming the role of meteorologist in chief". On September 1, Trump tweeted that Alabama, among other states, "will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated" by Dorian. By that time, no weather forecaster was predicting Dorian would impact Alabama and the eight National Hurricane Center forecast updates over the preceding 24 hours showed Dorian steering well away from Alabama and moving up the Atlantic coast. The Birmingham, Alabama office of the National Weather Service (NWS) contradicted Trump 20 minutes later, tweeting that Alabama "will NOT see any impacts from Dorian." After ABC News White House reporter Jonathan Karl reported the correction, Trump tweeted it was "Such a phony hurricane report by lightweight reporter


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On September 4, in the Oval Office, Trump displayed a modified version of an August 29 diagram by the National Hurricane Center of the projected track of Dorian. The modification was done with a black marker and extended the cone of uncertainty of the hurricane's possible path into southern Alabama. Modifying official government weather forecasts is illegal in the United States. A White House official later told "The Washington Post" Trump had altered the diagram with a Sharpie marker. Trump said he did not know how the map came to be modified and defended his claims, saying he had "a better map" with models that "in all cases [showed] Alabama was hit". Later on September 4, Trump tweeted a map by the South Florida Water Management District dated August 28 showing numerous projected paths of Dorian; Trump falsely asserted "almost all models" showed Dorian approaching Alabama. A note on the map stated it was "superseded" by National Hurricane Center publications and that it was to be discarded if there were any discrepancies.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On September 5, after Fox News correspondent John Roberts reported about the story live from the White House, Trump summoned him to the Oval Office. Roberts later characterized Trump as "just looking for acknowledgment that he was not wrong for saying that at some point, Alabama was at risk—even if the situation had changed by the time he issued the tweet".<ref name="Tapper9/5/2019"></ref> Later that day, Trump's Homeland Security Advisor Peter Brown issued a statement asserting Trump had been provided a graphic on September 1 showing tropical storm force winds touching the southeastern corner of Alabama; a White House source told CNN that Trump had personally instructed Brown to issue the statement.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On September 6, at Trump's direction, acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney told Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross to order acting NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs to fix the contradiction by Birmingham NWS, and Ross threatened to fire top NOAA officials if he did not. NOAA then tweeted a statement by an unnamed spokesman disavowing the Birmingham NWS tweet, asserting "the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama," adding that the Birmingham tweet "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time". The president of the NWS Employees Organization responded, "the hard-working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent out by NOAA management tonight". Former senior NOAA executives were also sharply critical. That evening, Trump tweeted a video of a CNN hurricane forecast from the Wednesday before his Sunday tweet in which the forecaster mentioned Alabama could be affected by Dorian—with the video altered to show "Alabama" being repeated several times; the video ended with a CNN logo careening off a road and bursting into flames. Trump continued to insist he was correct through September 7, asserting "The Fake News Media was fixated" on the matter and tweeting forecast maps from at least two days before his original Sunday tweet, as the media dubbed the episode "Sharpiegate". Numerous commentators expressed bafflement that Trump chose to continue insisting he was correct about what might otherwise have passed as a relatively minor gaffe.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On September 9, NWS director Louis Uccellini said the Birmingham NWS had not tweeted in response to Trump's tweet, but rather in response to numerous phone calls and social media contacts their office had received in response to Trump's tweet. "Only later, when the retweets and politically based comments started coming to their office, did they learn the sources of this information," he said.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On September 16, 2019, Trump tweeted that "the fake news" was incorrectly reporting that he was willing to meet with Iran with no pre-conditions. Trump had said in July 2018 and June 2019 that he was willing to meet with Iran with no pre-conditions, and secretary of state Mike Pompeo and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed this to be Trump's position during a White House press briefing five days before Trump's tweet.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump and some of his supporters allege that Obama and his administration conspired to politically surveil Trump's presidential campaign and presidential transition through inappropriate investigations by the Department of Justice, the United States Intelligence Community, and the United States Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. Trump nicknamed the series of events, which he called a major scandal, Obamagate. Trump's critics called it an unfounded conspiracy theory.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On May 10, 2020—one day after former president Barack Obama criticized the Trump administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic—Trump posted a one-word tweet: "OBAMAGATE!" On May 11, Philip Rucker of "The Washington Post" asked Trump what crime former president Barack Obama committed. Trump's reply was: "Obamagate. It's been going on for a long time ... from before I even got elected and it's a disgrace that it happened... Some terrible things happened and it should never be allowed to happen in our country again." When Rucker again asked what the crime was, Trump said: "You know what the crime is. The crime is very obvious to everybody. All you have to do is read the newspapers, except yours." On May 15, Trump tweeted that Obamagate was the "greatest political scandal in the history of the United States". This was the third time Trump claimed to be suffering from a scandal of such magnitude, after previously giving Spygate and the Russia investigation similar labels. Also on May 15, Trump linked Obamagate to the "persecution" of Michael Flynn, and a missing 302 form.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump called for Congress to summon Obama to testify about "the biggest political crime". Senator Lindsey Graham, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said that he did not expect to summon Obama, but would summon other Obama administration officials. Meanwhile, Attorney General William Barr stated that he did not "expect" Obama to be investigated of a crime. Some of Trump's allies have suggested that the "crime" involved the FBI launching an investigation into incoming national security advisor Michael Flynn, or possibly the "unmasking" by outgoing Obama officials to find out the name of a person who was reported in intelligence briefings to be conversing with the Russian ambassador.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a May 2020 op-ed at the news website RealClearPolitics, Charles Lipson, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Chicago analyzed the content of "Obamagate". He claimed that the concept refers to three intertwined scandals: (1) The Obama administration conducted mass surveillance through the NSA; (2) the Obama administration used surveillance against Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, and (3) the Obama administration did not transfer power seamlessly to the new Trump administration. Lipson further claimed that "these abuses didn't simply follow each other; their targets, goals, and principal players overlapped. Taken together, they represent some of the gravest violations of constitutional norms and legal protections in American history".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: The AP in May 2020 addressed Obamagate in a fact check, stating that there was "no evidence" of Trump's suggestion that "the disclosure of Flynn's name as part of legal U.S. surveillance of foreign targets was criminal and motivated by partisan politics." AP stated that there is not only "nothing illegal about unmasking," but also that the unmasking of Flynn was approved using the National Security Agency's "standard process." Unmasking is allowed if officials feel that it is needed to understand the collected intelligence. AP further pointed out that the Trump administration was conducting even more unmasking than the Obama administration in the final year of Obama's presidency. In May 2020, attorney general Bill Barr appointed federal prosecutor John Bash to examine unmasking conducted by the Obama administration. The inquiry concluded in October with no findings of substantive wrongdoing. By October 2020, the complex "Obamagate" narrative served as an evolution and rebranding of the "Spygate" conspiracy.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump repeatedly advocated a baseless conspiracy theory suggesting that television host Joe Scarborough was involved in the 2001 death of a staffer who worked for Scarborough while the latter was a member of Congress. Trump labeled the woman's death an unsolved "cold case" in one of multiple tweets and called on his followers to continue to "keep digging" and to "use forensic geniuses" to find out more about the death. Scarborough's wife and "Morning Joe" co-host Mika Brzezinski called the president a "cruel, sick, disgusting person" for his tweets and urged Twitter to remove Trump's tweets. Scarborough called Trump's tweet "unspeakably cruel".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Lori Klausutis was a constituent services coordinator in one of Scarborough's congressional offices in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. Klausutis was found dead on the floor near her desk in that office on July 19, 2001. An autopsy by Medical Examiner Dr. Michael Berkland revealed a previously undiagnosed heart-valve irregularity, floppy mitral valve disease, that caused a cardiac arrhythmia that in turn halted her heart, stopped her breathing, and caused the 28-year-old to lose consciousness, fall, and hit her head on the edge of a desk. Klausutis' cause of death was determined at the time of death to be due to natural causes, and local authorities have never attempted to re-investigate because there was no evidence of an alternative explanation for her death. Scarborough was in Washington, D.C. at the time of her death in Florida.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In May 2020, Klausutis's widower, Timothy Klausutis, called for the removal of Trump's tweets. He wrote a letter to Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter, saying: "I'm asking you to intervene in this instance because the President of the United States has taken something that does not belong to him—the memory of my dead wife—and perverted it for perceived political gain". Twitter refused to take down Trump's false tweets, and the White House Press Secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, only stated that her heart was with the family. Twitter stated that statements by the President, even false ones, are newsworthy.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In 2020, Trump claimed multiple times that he or his administration had "done more for the black community than any president," in some cases compared to all presidents, and in other cases to all presidents "since Abraham Lincoln" (who abolished slavery in the United States). Prominent historians instead pointed to Lyndon B. Johnson as the president who did most for the black community since Lincoln, for his Civil Rights Act of 1964 and his Voting Rights Act of 1965. The historians also highlighted that the presidencies of Harry Truman, Ulysses S. Grant, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama had done much for the black community. Trump's own achievements were dismissed as minor, while Trump was faulted for racially divisive rhetoric and attacks on voting rights.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: After Trump took office in 2017, he routinely tweeted an approval rating between 94% and 98% in the Republican Party without citing a source. Trump tweeted these approval ratings almost weekly, with a percentage around 96%. For example, a tweet from June 16, 2020, by Trump says "96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you!" Another tweet from August 23, 2019, says "94% Approval Rating within the Republican Party. Thank you!" Trump's approval rating in the Republican Party was found to be around 88% in a Fox News poll, 90% in a Gallup poll and 79% in an AP-NORC poll but there is no evidence to support his tweets of the approval ratings around 96%.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In 2019, Trump falsely accused Ilhan Omar of praising al-Qaeda, describing remarks Omar made in 2013 about how one of her college professors acted when he discussed al-Qaeda. In 2021, Trump stated without evidence that Omar married her brother, committed "large-scale immigration and election fraud", and wished "death to Israel".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump denied responsibility for his administration's disbanding of the US Pandemic Response Team headed by Rear Adm. R. Timothy Ziemer in 2018.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump made various false, misleading, or inaccurate statements related to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as "We have it under control. It's going to be just fine" (January 22, 2020); "Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away" (February 10), and "Anybody that wants a test can get a test" (March 6). Trump also repeatedly claimed that the pandemic would "go away", even as the number of daily new cases rose.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On February 24, Trump tweeted: "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA," and the next day Trump said, "I think that whole situation will start working out. We're very close to a vaccine," when none was known to be near production.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In late February, the Trump Administration stated that the outbreak containment was "close to airtight" and that the virus is only as deadly as the seasonal flu. Including that, the administration also stated that the outbreak was "contained" in early March even as the number of U.S. cases continued to increase, regardless of being publicly challenged.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: While on Fox News, Trump contradicted the World Health Organization (WHO) estimate that the global mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is 3.4%, saying. "Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number—and this is just my hunch—but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it's very mild, they'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor. You never hear about those people," and said his "hunch" is that the real figure is "way under 1%". Trump also speculated that "thousands or hundreds of thousands" of people might have recovered "by, you know, sitting around and even going to work—some of them go to work but they get better," contradicting medical advice to slow disease transmission. On March 17, Trump stated, "I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Anthony Fauci, director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explained in a "Science" interview that before COVID-19 press conferences, the task force presents its consensus to Trump "and somebody writes a speech. Then (Trump) gets up and "ad libs" on his speech". Fauci explained that afterwards, the task force told him to "be careful about this and don't say that," adding "I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time."


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump made 33 false claims about the coronavirus crisis in the first two weeks of March, per a CNN analysis. Trump made various other incorrect COVID-19 related statements. One false claim was that the United States had the highest rate per capita of COVID-19 testing, which it did not at the time, compared to South Korea, Italy, and Germany. Trump's misrepresentations often attempt to paint the federal coronavirus response in an excessively positive light, such as claiming that hospitals "even in the really hot spots" were "really thrilled" with the level of medical supplies, when in fact hospitals nationwide were concerned about shortages of medications, personal protective equipment, and ventilators.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: An NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll conducted from April 13–15, 900 registered voters, found that 36% of Americans trusted Trump for information on COVID-19, and 52% distrusted him for that information.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On April 14, Trump said that he had "total" authority to reopen states, then said the next day that state governors had to make their own decision on when to reopen.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On April 16, Trump said "Our experts say the curve has flattened, and the peak in new cases is behind us." Trump added that "Nationwide, more than 850 counties, or nearly 30 percent of our country, have reported no new cases in the last seven days." The 30 percent of the counties in the country represented 6 percent of the population. Cases were added in counties where 94 percent of the population lived.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On April 28, while discussing his own response to the pandemic, Trump falsely suggested that in late February, Dr. Anthony Fauci had said that the American COVID-19 outbreak was "no problem" and was "going to blow over". Contrary to Trump's claims, Fauci had said in a February 29 interview that "now the risk is still low, but this could change ... You've got to watch out because although the risk is low now ... when you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread ... this could be a major outbreak." Also on February 29, Fauci had stressed during a press conference that "we want to underscore that this is an evolving situation".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On May 19, Trump tweeted a statement claiming that the World Health Organization had consistently ignored credible reports of the virus spreading in Wuhan in December 2019, including reports from "The Lancet". "The Lancet" rejected Trump's claims, saying "The Lancet published no report in December, 2019, referring to a virus or outbreak in Wuhan or anywhere else in China. The first reports the journal published were on January 24, 2020". "The Lancet" also wrote that the allegations that Trump made against the WHO were "serious and damaging to efforts to strengthen international cooperation to control this pandemic". "The Lancet" also said that "It is essential that any review of the global response is based on a factually accurate account of what took place in December and January".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On June 20, at a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, Trump suggested that America should slow down testing. In response to the high number of tests, he said that "When you do testing to that extent, you're going to find more people, you're going to find more cases, so I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down, please.'" White House officials claimed that Trump was only joking. In an interview, Trump said that while he never gave an order to slow down testing, he claimed that if the United States slowed down the testing, they would look like they're doing better. "I wouldn't do that," he said, "but I will say this: We do so much more than other countries it makes us, in a way, look bad but actually we're doing the right thing." At the time, the percentage of positive cases in the United States was over two times higher than recommended by the World Health Organization.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On July 4, 2020, Trump falsely stated that "99 percent" of COVID-19 cases are "totally harmless". In the same speech, Trump contradicted several public health experts by saying that the U.S. will "likely have a therapeutic and/or vaccine solution long before the end of the year". FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn declined to state whether Trump's "99 percent" statement was accurate or to say how many cases are harmless. In March, the World Health Organization estimated 15% of COVID-19 cases become severe and 5% become critical.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: As the U.S. COVID-19 daily new case count increased from about 20,000 on June 9 to over 50,000 by July 7, Trump repeatedly insisted that the case increase was a function of increased COVID-19 testing. Trump's claims were contradicted by the facts that states having increased case counts as well as those having decreased case counts had increased testing, that the positive test rate increased in all ten states with the largest case increases, and that case rate increases consistently exceeded testing rate increases in states with the most new cases.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On August 5, 2020, Trump asserted that children should go back to school and learn in an in-person setting. He said, "If you look at children, children are almost, I would almost say definitely, but almost immune from this disease. So few. Hard to believe. I don't know how you feel about it but they have much stronger immune systems than we do somehow for this. They don't have a problem." According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, children account for about 7.3% of COVID-19 cases. A study reported in "Science Magazine" showed that "children under age 14 are between one-third and one-half as likely as adults to contract the virus." Facebook took action against President Trump's claim that children are "almost immune," removing a video of him making this claim that was posted on his official Facebook account. Twitter took action against a similar tweet made by Trump's campaign, stating that the account would be restricted from tweeting until the tweet was removed. The Trump campaign account removed the tweet later that day.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump noted New Zealand's success in dealing with COVID-19 while referring on August 18, 2020, to a "big surge in New Zealand"—on a day when New Zealand had 13 new reported cases of infection, a cumulative total of 1,643 COVID-19 cases and a cumulative total of 22 COVID-19-related deaths, with no new COVID-19-related deaths reported since late May 2020. Local commentators in New Zealand called Trump's terminology into question—Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters noted: "The American people can work out that what we have for a whole day, they have every 22 seconds of the day [...]."


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a series of eighteen interviews from December 5, 2019, to July 21, 2020, between Donald Trump and Bob Woodward, Trump admitted that he deceived the public about the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. On February 7, he told Woodward, "This is deadly stuff. You just breathe the air and that's how it's passed. And so that's a very tricky one. That's a very delicate one. It's also more deadly than even your strenuous flu." On March 19, he said in another interview, "I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic." Many audio recordings of these interviews were released on September 9, 2020.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In 2014, a bipartisan initiative for veterans' healthcare, led by Senators Bernie Sanders and John McCain, was signed into law by President Barack Obama. The Veterans Choice program enables eligible veterans to receive government funding for healthcare provided outside the VA system. In 2018, Trump signed the VA MISSION Act to expand the eligibility criteria. Over the next two years, Trump falsely claimed over 150 times that he had created the Veterans Choice program itself. When reporter Paula Reid questioned him about this in August 2020, noting that he repeatedly made a "false statement" in taking credit for the program, Trump abruptly walked out of the news conference.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a speech given at Al Asad Airbase to US military personnel on Christmas 2018, Trump boasted that the military had not gotten a raise in ten years, and that he would be giving them a raise of over 10 percent. In fact, American military personnel received a pay hike of at least one percent for the past 30 years, got a 2.4 percent pay increase in 2018, and would receive a 2.6 percent pay increase for 2019.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On January 3, 2020, Trump stated in a speech "Last night, at my direction, the United States military successfully executed a flawless precision strike that killed the number-one terrorist anywhere in the world, Qasem Soleimani." Trump's act of changing the reasons for killing Soleimani were questioned and analyzed by fact-checkers, and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper contradicted Trump's claim that the Iranians were planning to attack four embassies.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: President Trump repeatedly made false, misleading or baseless claims in his criticism of voting by mail in the United States. This included claims that other countries would print "millions of mail-in ballots", claims that "80 million unsolicited ballots" were being sent to Americans, and claims that Nevada's presidential election process was "100% rigged". Another claim was alleging massive voter fraud. In September 2020, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, who was appointed by Trump, testified under oath that the FBI had "not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it's by mail or otherwise".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: During his 2020 presidential campaign, Trump claimed his opponent Joe Biden would "destroy" Americans' "protections for pre-existing conditions", while Trump's administration has said the entire Affordable Care Act, which created such protections, should be struck down.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On November 4, Trump delivered a speech inside the White House falsely claiming he had already won the 2020 presidential election. He made numerous false and misleading statements to support his belief that vote counting should stop and that he should be confirmed as the winner. After Joe Biden was declared the winner of the election, Trump repeatedly and falsely claimed Biden had won through ballot fraud against him. He repeated and tweeted false and misleading claims about vote counting, Dominion Voting Systems, poll watchers, alleged voting irregularities, and more. During the two-month transition period to the Biden administration, according to a "Huffington Post" count of his false claims, Trump said the election was rigged (he made this claim 68 times), stolen (35 times), determined by fraudulent or miscounted votes (250 times), and affected by malfunctioning voting machines (45 times).


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Following the election, Trump continued to claim he had won it and that it was a rigged election. Anthony Scaramucci, a longtime Trump associate who was briefly White House communications director before breaking with Trump, said in July 2022 that the former president knew the election had not been stolen. Scaramucci said that during the 2016 campaign Trump had asked him and others why people didn't realize he was playacting and 'full of it' at least half the time, "so he knows that this is all a lie." Nearly two years after the election, Trump persisted in the false claim. For example, on August 29, 2022, he demanded on Truth Social that the nation "declare the rightful winner or ... have a new Election, immediately!”


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In October 2022, a U.S. District Court Judge ruled that Trump and allies participated in a "knowing misrepresentation of voter fraud numbers in Georgia when seeking to overturn the election results in federal court". Specifically, the judge wrote that "President Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public". The judge also found that related emails "are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of a conspiracy to defraud the United States" that the crime-fraud exemption voids Trump's lawyer's claim of attorney–client privilege.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: During the January 6, 2021, attack, minutes after Mike Pence had been rushed off the Senate floor, Trump tweeted that "Mike Pence didn't have the courage" to refuse to certify the election results, implying Pence had the Constitutional power to do so—a claim dismissed by the federal judges in the final two of 62 election-related lawsuits.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a January 7, 2021, White House video, Trump claimed, falsely, that he had "immediately deployed the National Guard and federal law enforcement to secure the building and expel the intruders".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Among outtakes for the January 7 video that were shown on July 21, 2022, by the House Select Committee, Trump remarked, "I don’t want to say the election's over. I just want to say Congress has certified the results without saying the election’s over, OK?"


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In late March 2021, Trump said the rioters "were ushered in by the police" and "They showed up just to show support", which is false in view of the 140 assaults on police officers in hours-long battles involving police engaging in hand-to-hand combat to try to keep rioters out of the building.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: At a July 7, 2021, news conference, Trump claimed "the person that shot Ashli Babbitt right through the head, just boom. There was no reason for that"; in fact, Babbitt was shot in the shoulder as she tried to enter an area of the Capitol used to evacuate lawmakers and was within sight of lawmakers being evacuated.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a July 11, 2021, interview on Fox News, Trump called the events of January 6 a "lovefest" and said that it was "not right" that the rioters were "currently incarcerated"—conflicting with his January 7 statement telling rioters, "You will pay."


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In an interview that aired on December 1, 2021, Trump said "hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people" had gathered to hear him speak on the day of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, saying "I think it was the largest crowd I’ve ever spoken before"; the Associated Press reported it as "several thousand." Investigators estimated that "more than 2,000 people" entered the Capitol.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On December 10, 2021, Trump told Fox News that the attack was "a protest" and that "the insurrection took place on November 3" (election day), while in fact about 140 police officers were assaulted and the peaceful transfer of power was violently interrupted in an attack that involved thousands of alleged crimes, and the election wasn't rigged or fraudulent. Trump also said to Fox News of his January 6 speech that "if you look at my words and what I said in the speech, they were extremely calming, actually", while in fact his speech proclaimed that "we fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore."


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On December 21, 2021, Trump made a statement calling the attack a "completely unarmed protest". Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson subsequently testified before the House January 6 committee that the Secret Service had warned Trump on January 6 that protestors were carrying weapons, but that Trump demanded that the magnetometers—used to detect metallic weapons—be disabled, so that more supporters would fill the rally space.<ref name="Mayorquin_6/28/2022"></ref> When warned, Trump is said to have angrily responded:


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: The Department of Justice said that some protestors were armed with guns, stun guns, knives, batons, baseball bats, axes, and chemical sprays. The Department of Justice said in a January 2022 official statement that over 75 people had been charged with entering a restricted area with "a dangerous or deadly weapon".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a February 5, 2022 rally, Trump said that if he runs again in 2024, "we will treat those people from January 6 fairly... And if it requires pardons, we will give them pardons. Because they are being treated so unfairly"—the claim of unfairness being unsupported by evidence. Trump's claim echoed his September 16, 2021, written statement that "Our hearts and minds are with the people being persecuted so unfairly relating to the January 6th protest concerning the Rigged Presidential Election".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Before the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election took place, Trump claimed without evidence that the election was "probably rigged" and stated, "Does anybody really believe the California recall election isn't rigged?" After polls closed, he stated there was "rigged voting".


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In reference to a New York policy that allows race to be a consideration when dispensing oral antiviral treatments, Trump distorted this policy during a rally by claiming white people don't get the vaccine and "have to go to the back of the line" for COVID-19 care.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In a new iteration of the Spygate conspiracy theory, in February 2022, Trump falsely claimed Hillary Clinton spied on him during the Russia investigation.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Following a Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling declaring ballot drop boxes illegal, Trump claimed this ruling retroactively applies to the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin. He also suggested he was the legitimate winner of that election.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump has published false, misleading, unsubstantiated, and contradictory claims about the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Among his many statements, Trump suggested, without evidence, that President Biden played a role in the search, the FBI planted evidence, the search was unnecessary, and the classified documents in his possession were already declassified. He stated that as a US president, he was not required to follow the prescribed legal process, but could simply declassify them just "by thinking about it",<ref name="Thompson_8/16/2022"></ref> and “because you’re sending it, to Mar-a-Lago or wherever you’re sending it... it’s declassified. I declassified everything.”


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On November 10, 2022, Trump alleged that Democrats had perpetrated "ballot theft" four years earlier in the Florida gubernatorial election. He claimed that, as President, he had intervened to support Republican candidate Ron DeSantis over his Democratic rival Andrew Gillum. "I sent in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys," Trump claimed, when it seemed that DeSantis had been "running out of the votes necessary to win.” Trump said he had thereby “fixed” the DeSantis campaign. Gillum filed in court to demand further information from Trump, as it sounded like an admission of wrongdoing; meanwhile, Florida's Broward County elections office denied that any such thing had happened during the 2018 election.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: On November 15, 2022, almost two years in advance of the 2024 election, Trump announced his candidacy for a second term as president. His announcement speech at Mar-a-Lago was "full of exaggerated and false talking points" and at least "20 false and misleading claims", uttering the first inaccurate claim "about two minutes in and a few minutes later, tick(ing) off at least four hyperbolic claims about his own accomplishments". "The New York Times" Fact Check stated that "Mr. Trump repeated many familiar exaggerations about his own achievements, reiterated misleading attacks on political opponents and made dire assessments that were at odds with reality."


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump's first inaccurate claim, about two minutes in, was that his administration "built the greatest economy in the history of the world", a claim that was inaccurate even for recent American history. Trump wrongly claimed Americans surrendered $85 billion worth of military equipment to the Taliban in the Afghanistan withdrawal; the Defense Department estimate was $7.1 billion, some which was rendered inoperable before the withdrawal. Trump claimed that his administration "filled up" the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but that under Biden it has been "virtually drained"; in fact, the reserve was not "virtually drained" under Biden, and it actually contained less when Trump left office than when he took office. He falsely claimed that climate scientists "say the ocean will rise 1/8 of an inch over the next 200 to 300 years"; NOAA estimated average sea level rise along the U.S. coastline will be 10-12 inches in the next 30 years.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Speaking of border crossings by undocumented aliens, he said "I believe it's 10 million people coming in, not three or four million people", a claim for which there is no empirical basis. Likewise, his claim that the U.S.-Mexico border had been "erased" since Biden was sworn in, was also baseless. Trump falsely heralded completion of his border wall; in fact, the vast majority of the "new" barriers reinforced or replaced existing structures, and only about 47 miles were new primary barriers along the 1,900-mile border.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: Trump said "I’ve gone decades, decades without a war, the first president to do it for that long a period"; however, he presided over U.S. involvement in wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and was commander-in-chief for dozens of U.S. airstrikes. He claimed that when he began his term the U.S. had jet fighters that were 48 years old (and) bombers that were 60 years old – but not anymore"; in fact, the military continues to use B-52 bombers that are being outfitted with new Rolls-Royce engines to prolong their life even further. Trump was wrong in claiming that the U.S. takes longer than "any" country to count votes, belied by longer times in Indonesia (more than a month in 2019), Afghanistan (five months after a September 2019 vote), and Bosnia (weeks in fall 2022).


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: A March 2020 Kaiser Family Foundation poll estimated that 19% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans trusted Trump to provide reliable information on COVID-19.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: A May 2020 SRSS poll for CNN concluded that 36% of people in the U.S. trusted Trump on information about the COVID-19 outbreak. Only 4% of Democrats trusted that information from Trump, compared to 84% of Republicans.


title: Veracity of statements by Donald Trump

text: In April 2022, Trump stated at a rally in Selma, North Carolina: "I think I'm the most honest human being, perhaps, that God ever created," prompting laughter from the crowd.


title: Survival analysis

text: Survival analysis is a branch of statistics for analyzing the expected duration of time until one event occurs, such as death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. This topic is called reliability theory or reliability analysis in engineering, duration analysis or duration modelling in economics, and event history analysis in sociology. Survival analysis attempts to answer certain questions, such as what is the proportion of a population which will survive past a certain time? Of those that survive, at what rate will they die or fail? Can multiple causes of death or failure be taken into account? How do particular circumstances or characteristics increase or decrease the probability of survival?


title: Survival analysis

text: To answer such questions, it is necessary to define "lifetime". In the case of biological survival, death is unambiguous, but for mechanical reliability, failure may not be well-defined, for there may well be mechanical systems in which failure is partial, a matter of degree, or not otherwise localized in time. Even in biological problems, some events (for example, heart attack or other organ failure) may have the same ambiguity. The theory outlined below assumes well-defined events at specific times; other cases may be better treated by models which explicitly account for ambiguous events.


title: Survival analysis

text: More generally, survival analysis involves the modelling of time to event data; in this context, death or failure is considered an "event" in the survival analysis literature – traditionally only a single event occurs for each subject, after which the organism or mechanism is dead or broken. "Recurring event" or "repeated event" models relax that assumption. The study of recurring events is relevant in systems reliability, and in many areas of social sciences and medical research.


title: Survival analysis

text: This example uses the Acute Myelogenous Leukemia survival data set "aml" from the "survival" package in R. The data set is from Miller (1997) and the question is whether the standard course of chemotherapy should be extended ('maintained') for additional cycles.


title: Survival analysis

text: The last observation (11), at 161 weeks, is censored. Censoring indicates that the patient did not have an event (no recurrence of aml cancer). Another subject, observation 3, was censored at 13 weeks (indicated by status=0). This subject was in the study for only 13 weeks, and the aml cancer did not recur during those 13 weeks. It is possible that this patient was enrolled near the end of the study, so that they could be observed for only 13 weeks. It is also possible that the patient was enrolled early in the study, but was lost to follow up or withdrew from the study. The table shows that other subjects were censored at 16, 28, and 45 weeks (observations 17, 6, and9 with status=0). The remaining subjects all experienced events (recurrence of aml cancer) while in the study. The question of interest is whether recurrence occurs later in maintained patients than in non-maintained patients.


title: Survival analysis

text: The survival function "S"("t"), is the probability that a subject survives longer than time "t". "S"("t") is theoretically a smooth curve, but it is usually estimated using the Kaplan–Meier (KM) curve. The graph shows the KM plot for the aml data and can be interpreted as follows:


title: Survival analysis

text: A life table summarizes survival data in terms of the number of events and the proportion surviving at each event time point. The life table for the aml data, created using the Rsoftware, is shown.


title: Survival analysis

text: The life table summarizes the events and the proportion surviving at each event time point. The columns in the life table have the following interpretation:


title: Survival analysis

text: The log-rank test compares the survival times of two or more groups. This example uses a log-rank test for a difference in survival in the maintained versus non-maintained treatment groups in the aml data. The graph shows KM plots for the aml data broken out by treatment group, which is indicated by the variable "x" in the data.


title: Survival analysis

text: The null hypothesis for a log-rank test is that the groups have the same survival. The expected number of subjects surviving at each time point in each is adjusted for the number of subjects at risk in the groups at each event time. The log-rank test determines if the observed number of events in each group is significantly different from the expected number. The formal test is based on a chi-squared statistic. When the log-rank statistic is large, it is evidence for a difference in the survival times between the groups. The log-rank statistic approximately has a chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom, and the p-value is calculated using the chi-squared distribution.


title: Survival analysis

text: For the example data, the log-rank test for difference in survival gives a p-value of p=0.0653, indicating that the treatment groups do not differ significantly in survival, assuming an alpha level of 0.05. The sample size of 23 subjects is modest, so there is little power to detect differences between the treatment groups. The chi-squared test is based on asymptotic approximation, so the p-value should be regarded with caution for small sample sizes.


title: Survival analysis

text: Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests are most useful when the predictor variable is categorical (e.g., drug vs. placebo), or takes a small number of values (e.g., drug doses 0, 20, 50, and 100 mg/day) that can be treated as categorical. The log-rank test and KM curves don't work easily with quantitative predictors such as gene expression, white blood count, or age. For quantitative predictor variables, an alternative method is Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Cox PH models work also with categorical predictor variables, which are encoded as {0,1} indicator or dummy variables. The log-rank test is a special case of a Cox PH analysis, and can be performed using Cox PH software.


title: Survival analysis

text: Data are in the R package ISwR. The Cox proportional hazards regression usingR gives the results shown in the box.


title: Survival analysis

text: The summary output also gives upper and lower 95% confidence intervals for the hazard ratio: lower 95% bound = 1.15; upper 95% bound = 3.26.


title: Survival analysis

text: Finally, the output gives p-values for three alternative tests for overall significance of the model:


title: Survival analysis

text: These three tests are asymptotically equivalent. For large enough N, they will give similar results. For small N, they may differ somewhat. The last row, "Score (logrank) test" is the result for the log-rank test, with p=0.011, the same result as the log-rank test, because the log-rank test is a special case of a Cox PH regression. The Likelihood ratio test has better behavior for small sample sizes, so it is generally preferred.


title: Survival analysis

text: The Cox model extends the log-rank test by allowing the inclusion of additional covariates. This example use the melanoma data set where the predictor variables include a continuous covariate, the thickness of the tumor (variable name = "thick").


title: Survival analysis

text: In the histograms, the thickness values don't look normally distributed. Regression models, including the Cox model, generally give more reliable results with normally-distributed variables. For this example use a log transform. The log of the thickness of the tumor looks to be more normally distributed, so the Cox models will use log thickness. The Cox PH analysis gives the results in the box.


title: Survival analysis

text: The p-value for all three overall tests (likelihood, Wald, and score) are significant, indicating that the model is significant. The p-value for log(thick) is 6.9e-07, with a hazard ratio HR = exp(coef) = 2.18, indicating a strong relationship between the thickness of the tumor and increased risk of death.


title: Survival analysis

text: By contrast, the p-value for sex is now p=0.088. The hazard ratio HR = exp(coef) = 1.58, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.934 to 2.68. Because the confidence interval for HR includes 1, these results indicate that sex makes a smaller contribution to the difference in the HR after controlling for the thickness of the tumor, and only trend toward significance. Examination of graphs of log(thickness) by sex and a t-test of log(thickness) by sex both indicate that there is a significant difference between men and women in the thickness of the tumor when they first see the clinician.


title: Survival analysis

text: The Cox model assumes that the hazards are proportional. The proportional hazard assumption may be tested using the Rfunction cox.zph(). A p-value is less than 0.05 indicates that the hazards are not proportional. For the melanoma data, p=0.222, indicating that the hazards are, at least approximately, proportional. Additional tests and graphs for examining a Cox model are described in the textbooks cited.


title: Survival analysis

text: The Cox PH regression model is a linear model. It is similar to linear regression and logistic regression. Specifically, these methods assume that a single line, curve, plane, or surface is sufficient to separate groups (alive, dead) or to estimate a quantitative response (survival time).


title: Survival analysis

text: In some cases alternative partitions give more accurate classification or quantitative estimates. One set of alternative methods are tree-structured survival models, including survival random forests. Tree-structured survival models may give more accurate predictions than Cox models. Examining both types of models for a given data set is a reasonable strategy.


title: Survival analysis

text: This example of a survival tree analysis uses the Rpackage "rpart". The example is based on 146 stageC prostate cancer patients in the data set stagec in rpart. Rpart and the stagec example are described in Atkinson and Therneau (1997), which is also distributed as a vignette of the rpart package.


title: Survival analysis

text: Each branch in the tree indicates a split on the value of a variable. For example, the root of the tree splits subjects with grade < 2.5 versus subjects with grade 2.5 or greater. The terminal nodes indicate the number of subjects in the node, the number of subjects who have events, and the relative event rate compared to the root. In the node on the far left, the values 1/33 indicate that one of the 33 subjects in the node had an event, and that the relative event rate is 0.122. In the node on the far right bottom, the values 11/15 indicate that 11 of 15 subjects in the node had an event, and the relative event rate is 2.7.


title: Survival analysis

text: An alternative to building a single survival tree is to build many survival trees, where each tree is constructed using a sample of the data, and average the trees to predict survival. This is the method underlying the survival random forest models. Survival random forest analysis is available in the Rpackage "randomForestSRC".


title: Survival analysis

text: The randomForestSRC package includes an example survival random forest analysis using the data set pbc. This data is from the Mayo Clinic Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC) trial of the liver conducted between 1974 and 1984. In the example, the random forest survival model gives more accurate predictions of survival than the Cox PH model. The prediction errors are estimated by bootstrap re-sampling.


title: Survival analysis

text: The object of primary interest is the survival function, conventionally denoted "S", which is defined as


title: Survival analysis

text: where "t" is some time, "T" is a random variable denoting the time of death, and "Pr" stands for probability. That is, the survival function is the probability that the time of death is later than some specified time "t".


title: Survival analysis

text: The survival function is also called the "survivor function" or "survivorship function" in problems of biological survival, and the "reliability function" in mechanical survival problems. In the latter case, the reliability function is denoted "R"("t").


title: Survival analysis

text: Usually one assumes "S"(0) = 1, although it could be less than 1if there is the possibility of immediate death or failure.


title: Survival analysis

text: The survival function must be non-increasing: "S"("u") ≤ "S"("t") if "u" ≥ "t". This property follows directly because "T">"u" implies "T">"t". This reflects the notion that survival to a later age is possible only if all younger ages are attained. Given this property, the lifetime distribution function and event density ("F" and "f" below) are well-defined.


title: Survival analysis

text: The survival function is usually assumed to approach zero as age increases without bound (i.e., "S"("t") → 0 as "t" → ∞), although the limit could be greater than zero if eternal life is possible. For instance, we could apply survival analysis to a mixture of stable and unstable carbon isotopes; unstable isotopes would decay sooner or later, but the stable isotopes would last indefinitely.


title: Survival analysis

text: The lifetime distribution function, conventionally denoted "F", is defined as the complement of the survival function,


title: Survival analysis

text: If "F" is differentiable then the derivative, which is the density function of the lifetime distribution, is conventionally denoted "f",


title: Survival analysis

text: The function "f" is sometimes called the event density; it is the rate of death or failure events per unit time.


title: Survival analysis

text: The survival function can be expressed in terms of probability distribution and probability density functions


title: Survival analysis

text: In other fields, such as statistical physics, the survival event density function is known as the first passage time density.


title: Survival analysis

text: The hazard function, conventionally denoted formula_6 or formula_7, is defined as the event rate at time formula_8 conditional on survival until time formula_8 or later (that is, formula_10). Suppose that an item has survived for a time formula_8 and we desire the probability that it will not survive for an additional time formula_12:


title: Survival analysis

text: Force of mortality is a synonym of "hazard function" which is used particularly in demography and actuarial science, where it is denoted by formula_14. The term "hazard rate" is another synonym.


title: Survival analysis

text: The force of mortality is also called the force of failure. It is the probability density function of the distribution of mortality.


title: Survival analysis

text: In actuarial science, the hazard rate is the rate of death for lives aged formula_16. For a life aged formula_16, the force of mortality formula_8 years later is the force of mortality for a formula_19–year old. The hazard rate is also called the failure rate. Hazard rate and failure rate are names used in reliability theory.


title: Survival analysis

text: In fact, the hazard rate is usually more informative about the underlying mechanism of failure than the other representations of a lifetime distribution.


title: Survival analysis

text: The hazard function must be non-negative, formula_23, and its integral over formula_24 must be infinite, but is not otherwise constrained; it may be increasing or decreasing, non-monotonic, or discontinuous. An example is the bathtub curve hazard function, which is large for small values of formula_8, decreasing to some minimum, and thereafter increasing again; this can model the property of some mechanical systems to either fail soon after operation, or much later, as the system ages.


title: Survival analysis

text: The hazard function can alternatively be represented in terms of the cumulative hazard function, conventionally denoted formula_26 or formula_27:


title: Survival analysis

text: From the definition of formula_32, we see that it increases without bound as "t" tends to infinity (assuming that formula_33 tends to zero). This implies that formula_34 must not decrease too quickly, since, by definition, the cumulative hazard has to diverge. For example, formula_35 is not the hazard function of any survival distribution, because its integral converges to 1.


title: Survival analysis

text: The survival function formula_33, the cumulative hazard function formula_32, the density formula_38, the hazard function formula_34, and the lifetime distribution function formula_40 are related through


title: Survival analysis

text: Future lifetime at a given time formula_42 is the time remaining until death, given survival to age formula_42. Thus, it is formula_44 in the present notation. The expected future lifetime is the expected value of future lifetime. The probability of death at or before age formula_45, given survival until age formula_42, is just


title: Survival analysis

text: In reliability problems, the expected lifetime is called the "mean time to failure", and the expected future lifetime is called the "mean residual lifetime".


title: Survival analysis

text: As the probability of an individual surviving until age "t" or later is "S"("t"), by definition, the expected number of survivors at age "t" out of an initial population of "n" newborns is "n" × "S"("t"), assuming the same survival function for all individuals. Thus the expected proportion of survivors is "S"("t").


title: Survival analysis

text: If the survival of different individuals is independent, the number of survivors at age "t" has a binomial distribution with parameters "n" and "S"("t"), and the variance of the proportion of survivors is "S"("t") × (1-"S"("t"))/"n".


title: Survival analysis

text: The age at which a specified proportion of survivors remain can be found by solving the equation "S"("t") = "q" for "t", where "q" is the quantile in question. Typically one is interested in the median lifetime, for which "q" = 1/2, or other quantiles such as "q" = 0.90 or "q" = 0.99.


title: Survival analysis

text: Censoring is a form of missing data problem in which time to event is not observed for reasons such as termination of study before all recruited subjects have shown the event of interest or the subject has left the study prior to experiencing an event. Censoring is common in survival analysis.


title: Survival analysis

text: If only the lower limit "l" for the true event time "T" is known such that "T" > "l", this is called "right censoring". Right censoring will occur, for example, for those subjects whose birth date is known but who are still alive when they are lost to follow-up or when the study ends. We generally encounter right-censored data.


title: Survival analysis

text: If the event of interest has already happened before the subject is included in the study but it is not known when it occurred, the data is said to be "left-censored". When it can only be said that the event happened between two observations or examinations, this is "interval censoring".


title: Survival analysis

text: Left censoring occurs for example when a permanent tooth has already emerged prior to the start of a dental study that aims to estimate its emergence distribution. In the same study, an emergence time is interval-censored when the permanent tooth is present in the mouth at the current examination but not yet at the previous examination. Interval censoring often occurs in HIV/AIDS studies. Indeed, time to HIV seroconversion can be determined only by a laboratory assessment which is usually initiated after a visit to the physician. Then one can only conclude that HIV seroconversion has happened between two examinations. The same is true for the diagnosis of AIDS, which is based on clinical symptoms and needs to be confirmed by a medical examination.


title: Survival analysis

text: It may also happen that subjects with a lifetime less than some threshold may not be observed at all: this is called "truncation". Note that truncation is different from left censoring, since for a left censored datum, we know the subject exists, but for a truncated datum, we may be completely unaware of the subject. Truncation is also common. In a so-called "delayed entry" study, subjects are not observed at all until they have reached a certain age. For example, people may not be observed until they have reached the age to enter school. Any deceased subjects in the pre-school age group would be unknown. Left-truncated data are common in actuarial work for life insurance and pensions.


title: Survival analysis

text: Left-censored data can occur when a person's survival time becomes incomplete on the left side of the follow-up period for the person. For example, in an epidemiological example, we may monitor a patient for an infectious disorder starting from the time when he or she is tested positive for the infection. Although we may know the right-hand side of the duration of interest, we may never know the exact time of exposure to the infectious agent.


title: Survival analysis

text: Survival models can be usefully viewed as ordinary regression models in which the response variable is time. However, computing the likelihood function (needed for fitting parameters or making other kinds of inferences) is complicated by the censoring. The likelihood function for a survival model, in the presence of censored data, is formulated as follows. By definition the likelihood function is the conditional probability of the data given the parameters of the model.


title: Survival analysis

text: It is customary to assume that the data are independent given the parameters. Then the likelihood function is the product of the likelihood of each datum. It is convenient to partition the data into four categories: uncensored, left censored, right censored, and interval censored. These are denoted "unc.", "l.c.", "r.c.", and "i.c." in the equation below.


title: Survival analysis

text: For an interval censored datum, such that the age at death is known to be less than formula_58 and greater than formula_59, we have


title: Survival analysis

text: An important application where interval-censored data arises is current status data, where an event formula_61 is known not to have occurred before an observation time and to have occurred before the next observation time.


title: Survival analysis

text: The Kaplan–Meier estimator can be used to estimate the survival function. The Nelson–Aalen estimator can be used to provide a non-parametric estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function.


title: Survival analysis

text: has examples of survival analyses using SAS, R, and other packages. The textbooks by Brostrom, Dalgaard


title: Joanna Hogg

text: Joanna Hogg (born 20 March 1960) is a British film director and screenwriter. She made her directorial and screenwriting feature film debut in 2007 with "Unrelated" followed by "Archipelago" (2010) and "Exhibition" (2013). Two of her films, "The Souvenir" (2019) and "The Souvenir Part II" (2021), topped the "Sight & Sound" annual poll for best film in their respective years, receiving nominations at the British Independent Film Awards, the Independent Spirit Awards and at the Berlin International Film Festival.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: After leaving school in the late 1970s, Hogg worked as a photographer and began to make experimental super-8 films after borrowing a camera from Derek Jarman, who became an early mentor after a chance meeting in Patisserie Valerie in Soho. One of these, a film about a kinetic sculpture by artist Ron Haselden, won her a place to study direction at the National Film and Television School. In 1986, her graduation piece called "Caprice" starred Tilda Swinton. On graduation, Hogg directed several music videos for artists such as Alison Moyet, and won her first television commission writing and directing a programme segment for Janet Street Porter's Channel Four series "Network 7", "Flesh + Blood". In the 1990s, Hogg directed episodes of "London Bridge", "Casualty" and "London's Burning". She also directed the "EastEnders" special "EastEnders: Dot's Story" (2003).


title: Joanna Hogg

text: Hogg has said, "I wanted to make a film doing everything I was told not to do in television". She shot her first feature, "Unrelated" (2007), in Tuscany. It tells the story of a childless woman, Anna (Kathryn Worth), of around forty who goes on holiday to Italy with her friend Verena (Mary Roscoe) and her teenage family. Over the course of the holiday, tensions emerge as Anna spends less time with the 'grown-ups' and is drawn towards the teenage crowd and the attractions of Verena's teenage nephew (Tom Hiddleston). The film received critical acclaim, premiering at the London Film Festival in 2007 and winning the FIPRESCI International Critics Award. It also won the Guardian First Film Award in 2008 and the Evening Standard British Film Awards 'Most Promising Newcomer' Award in 2009, as well as being nominated for their Best Film Award and earning Hogg a nomination for the London Film Critics' Circle 'Breakthrough Filmmaker' Award in 2009.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: Her second film, "Archipelago", shot on the island of Tresco had its UK premiere at the 2010 London Film Festival, where it was nominated in the Best Film category. It was released in the UK on 4 March 2011 by Artificial Eye. Her third film "Exhibition" starred musician Viv Albertine and artist Liam Gillick and also featured Hogg's long-time collaborator Tom Hiddleston. The film premiered at the Locarno Film Festival in 2013. Peter Bradshaw writing in "The Guardian" hailed it as 'a masterful cinematic enigma' awarding it the full five stars.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: In the A24 podcast episode "A Bigger Canvas", Martin Scorsese has a conversation with Hogg where it is revealed that he saw her film "Archipelago" and reached out to her wanting to collaborate with her. He served as an executive producer for her next film, "The Souvenir" (2019). The film premiered in the Sundance Film Festival. It was released in the United States on 17 May 2019 by A24 and in the United Kingdom on 30 August 2019 by Curzon Artificial Eye. The title refers to the painting of the same name by Jean-Honoré Fragonard and Hogg's personal life, with the performance of Honor Swinton Byrne, Tom Burke and Tilda Swinton. The film was nominated in several film awards cerimony and festivals, including the Berlin International Film Festival, the British Independent Film Awards and the Independent Spirit Awards.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: The sequel, "The Souvenir Part II," had its premier at Cannes Film Festival in July 2021, receiving critical acclaim, with nominations at the British Independent Film Awards, the Gotham Awards and at the London Film Critics' Circle.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: Hogg's newest film, "The Eternal Daughter", is a mystery-drama film starring Tilda Swinton. The film is set to premier at the 2022 Venice Film Festival.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: In 2015 Hogg directed Harold Pinter's unproduced film screenplay adaptation of the short story by Karen Blixen "The Dreaming Child" for Radio 4, adapting the screenplay with producer Laurence Bowen. It starred Lydia Leonard, who worked with Hogg on "Archipelago" and Bertie Carvel.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: In October 2015 Hogg co-curated the retrospective exhibition of film maker Chantal Akerman's installation work, "Chantal Akerman NOW", at the Ambika P3 Gallery. This was the culmination of a two-year-long retrospective of Akerman's work she had programmed with Adam Roberts, with whom she founded the cinema collective A Nos Amours in 2011. The collective is "dedicated to programming over-looked, under-exposed or especially potent cinema". In an interview, Hogg said that 'A new generation is growing up who actually don't know the work of directors like Tarkovsky', as a major motivation behind establishing the collective.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: Hogg's style is influenced by European and Asian directors such as Eric Rohmer and Yasujirō Ozu, using extended takes and minimal camera movement. She takes the unusual approach of casting a mixture of actors and non-professional actors in her films, such as the landscape painter Christopher Baker in "Archipelago". Her depiction of unarguably middle-class characters has prompted some commentators to see her work as spearheading a new type of social realism in British film.


title: Joanna Hogg

text: In an interview with Vogue in 2021, Hogg mentioned women directors Chloe Zhao and Mia Hansen-Løve as two friends and inspirations for her productions.


title: Raj Ghat and associated memorials

text: Raj Ghat is a memorial dedicated to Mahatma Gandhi in Delhi, India. Originally it was the name of a historic ghat of Old Delhi (Shahjahanabad). Close to it, and east of Daryaganj was "Raj Ghat Gate" of the walled city, opening at "Raj Ghat" to the west bank of the Yamuna River. Later the memorial area was also called "Raj Ghat". It is a black marble platform that marks the spot of Mahatma Gandhi's cremation, "Antyeshti" (last rites) on 31 January 1948, a day after his assassination. It is left open to the sky while an eternal flame burns at one end. Located on Delhi's Ring Road, officially known as Mahatma Gandhi Road, a stone footpath flanked by lawns leads to the walled enclosure that houses the memorial. The materials used in the memorial, especially in the recesses, raise a few questions about the nature of Gandhian architecture in India. There is a difference between the architecture of Rajghat and a Gandhian low-cost housing architecture. Unlike the hard material faces of some portions of Rajghat, a Gandhian low-cost housing architecture has a decidedly perishable character. In this sense the event of the construction of the Rajghat Memorial belongs within a more hard-modernist Gandhian architectural history in India, distinctly removed from a Gandhian low-cost architectural history of perishable materials.


title: Raj Ghat and associated memorials

text: Raj Ghat loosely translates to "Royal Steps" (with "royal" alluding to the importance of the place and "steps" referencing the bank of the Yamuna River). Several other "samadhis" or cremation spots of other famous leaders can be found in the vicinity of Raj Ghat. The landscaping and planting of these memorials was performed by Alick Percy-Lancaster, the last Englishman to hold the post of Superintendent of Horticultural Operations, Government of India.


title: Raj Ghat and associated memorials

text: Jawaharlal Nehru's samadhi is to the north of the Raj Ghat and is known as the "Shantivan" meaning the "garden of peace". Adjacent to Nehru's memorial is "Ekta Sthal", the site where Zail Singh, 7th President of India, was cremated with full state honours in 2005.


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: Janet Norton Lee Auchincloss, previously Bouvier, (December 3, 1907 – July 22, 1989) was an American socialite. She was the mother of the former First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy and Lee Radziwill.


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: Janet Norton Lee was born on December 3, 1907, in Manhattan, New York City. She was the middle daughter of James Thomas Aloysius Lee (1877–1968), a lawyer and real estate developer, and Margaret A. Merritt (1880–1943). Although she made differing claims about her genealogy including she was “from the Maryland Lees”, both her parents were of Irish Catholic descent. She had two sisters; Marion Merritt Lee (1904–1947), who married John J. Ryan Jr., and Margaret Winifred Lee (1910–1991), who married Franklin D'Olier.


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: Janet graduated from Miss Spence's School and attended Sweet Briar and Barnard Colleges. She was a member of the Barnard College class of 1929 but records show that she did not graduate. She was a three-time winner of the hunter championship at the National Horse Show.


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: She served as a board member of the Newport Historical Society and the Redwood Library. She was also the honorary director of the Robert E. Lee Memorial Association in Stratford, Virginia.


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: Janet was married three times. In 1928, she married her first husband, John Vernou Bouvier III (1891–1957). He was the son of Major John Vernou Bouvier Jr. (1866–1948), a successful attorney, and Maude Frances Sergeant (1870–1940). He was also the brother of Edith Bouvier Beale (1895–1977), later known as the subject of the documentary film, "Grey Gardens". Together, they were the parents of two daughters:


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: Mr. Bouvier's womanizing and drinking led to a separation in 1936, a brief reconciliation for a few months in 1937, and then a divorce in 1940.


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: In 1942, she married her second husband, Hugh Dudley Auchincloss Jr., an attorney and Standard Oil heir; becoming his third wife. Together, they had two children:


title: Janet Lee Bouvier

text: Hugh Auchincloss died in 1976. In 1979, she married for a third time, to her childhood friend Bingham Willing "Booch" Morris (1906–1996). Jacqueline served as her witness. Morris, a widower, was a retired investment banker who lived in Southampton, New York, a graduate of St. George's School and Harvard, where he was a member of the Iroquois and Hasty Pudding Clubs, and was the son of Violet Lee (née Willing) Morris and John Boucher Morris of Baltimore. His late wife, Mary (née Rawlins) Morris, was a bridesmaid at Janet's first wedding. They separated in 1981, but remained married until her death from complications arising from Alzheimer's disease in 1989.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool () is a seaside and port town in County Durham, England. It is the largest settlement and administrative centre of the Borough of Hartlepool. With an estimated population of 90,123, it is the second-largest settlement in County Durham.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool is locally administrated by Hartlepool Borough Council, a unitary authority which also administrates outlying villages of Seaton Carew, Greatham, Hart Village, Dalton Piercy and Elwick.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool was founded in the 7th century, around the monastery of Hartlepool Abbey. The village grew in the Middle Ages and its harbour served as the official port of the County Palatine of Durham. After a railway link from the north was established from the South Durham coal fields, an additional link from the south, in 1835, together with a new port, resulted in further expansion, with the new town of West Hartlepool.


title: Hartlepool

text: Industrialisation in northern England and the start of a shipbuilding industry in the later part of the 19th century caused Hartlepool to be a target for the Imperial German Navy at the beginning of the First World War. A bombardment of 1,150 shells on 16 December 1914 resulted in the death of 117 people. A severe decline in heavy industries and shipbuilding following the Second World War caused periods of high unemployment until the 1990s when major investment projects and the redevelopment of the docks area into a marina saw a rise in the town's prospects.


title: Hartlepool

text: The place name derives from Old English "heort" ("hart"), referring to stags seen, and "pōl" (pool), a pool of drinking water which they were known to use. Records of the place-name from early sources confirm this:


title: Hartlepool

text: The 8th Century Northumbrian chronicler Bede referred to the spot on which today's town is sited upon as "the place where deer come to drink", and in this period the Headland was named by the Angles as "Heruteu" ("Stag Island"). At the beginning of the 11th Century the name had evolved into "Herterpol", and after the Norman Conquest the name of the village sited there evolved in Middle English as: Hart-le-pool ("The Pool of the Stags"). Archaeological evidence has been found below the current high tide mark that indicates that an ancient post-glacial forest by the sea existed in the area during this period.


title: Hartlepool

text: Following the end of Roman rule in its province of Britannia in the early 5th century, the northeastern coast was raided by the Angles from across the North Sea in Scandinavia. They subsequently began crossing the North Sea and settled in the area, creating the Kingdom of Northumbria in sub-Roman Britain. Hartlepool began as an Anglian settlement, and a town developed in the 7th century sited around Hartlepool Abbey, which had been founded in 640 by the Irish Christian priest Saint Aidan upon a headland overlooking a natural harbour and the North Sea. The monastery became powerful under St Hilda, who served as its abbess from 649 to 657. The Abbey fell into decline with the loss of Northumbrian power in the early 8th century, and it was probably destroyed during a sea raid by Vikings on Hartlepool in the 9th century. In March 2000, the archaeological investigation television programme "Time Team" located the foundations of the lost monastery in the grounds of St Hilda's Church.


title: Hartlepool

text: During the Norman Conquest, the De Brus family gained over-lordship of the land surrounding Hartlepool. William the Conqueror subsequently ordered the construction of Durham Castle, and the villages under their rule were mentioned in records in 1153 when Robert de Brus, 1st Lord of Annandale became Lord of Hartness. The town's first charter was received before 1185, for which it gained its first mayor, an annual two-week fair and a weekly market.


title: Hartlepool

text: By the Middle Ages Hartlepool was growing into an important (though still small) market town, one of the reasons for its escalating wealth being that its harbour was serving now as the official port of the County Palatine of Durham. The main industry of the town at this time was fishing, and Hartlepool in this period established itself as one of the primary ports upon England's Eastern coast.


title: Hartlepool

text: In 1306, Robert the Bruce was crowned King of Scotland, and became the last Lord of Hartness. Angered, King Edward I confiscated the title to Hartlepool, and began to improve the town's military defences in expectation of war. In 1315, before they were completed, a Scottish army under Sir James Douglas attacked, captured and looted the town.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool was once again militarily occupied by a Scottish incursion, this time in alliance with the Parliamentary Army during the English Civil War, which after 18 months was relieved by an English Parliamentarian garrison.


title: Hartlepool

text: In 1795 Hartlepool artillery emplacements and defences were constructed in the town as a defensive measure against the threat of French attack from seaborne Napoleonic forces. During the Crimean War two coastal batteries were constructed close together in the town to guard against the threat of seaborne attacks from the Imperial Russian Navy, they were entitled the "Lighthouse Battery" (1855) and the "Heugh Battery" (1859).


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool in the 18th Century became known as a town with medicinal springs, particularly the Chalybeate Spa near the Westgate. The poet Thomas Gray visited the town in July 1765 to "take the waters", and wrote to his friend William Mason:


title: Hartlepool

text: By the early nineteenth century, Hartlepool was still a small town of around 900 people, with a declining port. In 1823 the council and Board of Trade decided that the town needed new industry, so the decision was made to propose a new railway to make Hartlepool a coal port, shipping out minerals from the Durham coalfield. It was in this endeavour that Isambard Kingdom Brunel visited the town in December 1831, and wrote: "A curiously isolated old fishing town – a remarkably fine race of men. Went to the top of the church tower for a view."


title: Hartlepool

text: But the plan was faced by local competition from new docks. to the north, the Marquis of Londonderry had approved the creation of the new Seaham Harbour (opened 31 July 1831), while to the south the Clarence Railway connected Stockton-on-Tees and Billingham to a new port at Port Clarence (opened 1833). Further south again, in 1831 the Stockton and Darlington Railway had extended into the new port of Middlesbrough.


title: Hartlepool

text: The council agreed the formation of the Hartlepool Dock and Railway Company (HD&RCo) to extend the existing port by developing new docks, and link to both local collieries and the developing railway network in the south. In 1833, it was agreed that Christopher Tennant of Yarm establish the HD&RCo, having previously opened the Clarence Railway (CR). Tennant's plan was that the HD&RCo would fund the creation of a new railway, the Stockton and Hartlepool Railway, which would take over the loss-making CR and extended it north to the new dock, thereby linking to the Durham coalfield.


title: Hartlepool

text: After Tennant died, in 1839, the running of the HD&RCo was taken over by Stockton-on-Tees solicitor, Ralph Ward Jackson. But Jackson became frustrated at the planning restrictions placed on the old Hartlepool dock and surrounding area for access, so bought land which was mainly sand dunes to the south-west, and established West Hartlepool. Because Jackson was so successful at shipping coal from West Hartlepool through his West Hartlepool Dock and Railway Company and, as technology developed, ships grew in size and scale, the new town would eventually dwarf the old town.


title: Hartlepool

text: The West Hartlepool Harbour and Dock opened on 1 June 1847. On 1 June 1852 the Jackson Dock opened on the same day that a railway opened connecting West Hartlepool to Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool. This allowed the shipping of coal and wool products eastwards, and the shipping of fresh fish and raw fleeces westwards, enabling another growth spurt in the town. This in turn resulted in the opening of the Swainson Dock on 3 June 1856, named after Ward Jackson's father-in-law. In 1878 the William Gray & Co shipyard in West Hartlepool achieved the distinction of launching the largest tonnage of any shipyard in the world, a feat to be repeated on a number of occasions. By 1881, old Hartlepool's population had grown from 993 to 12,361, but West Hartlepool had a population of 28,000.


title: Hartlepool

text: Ward Jackson helped to plan the layout of West Hartlepool and was responsible for the first public buildings. He was also involved in the education and the welfare of the inhabitants. In the end, he was a victim of his own ambition to promote the town: accusations of shady financial dealings, and years of legal battles, left him in near-poverty. He spent the last few years of his life in London, far away from the town he had created.


title: Hartlepool

text: The area became heavily industrialised with an ironworks (established 1838) and shipyards in the docks (established in the 1870s). By 1913, no fewer than 43 ship-owning companies were located in the town, with responsibility for 236 ships. This made it a key target for Germany in the First World War. One of the first German offensives against Britain was a raid and bombardment on the by Imperial German Navy on the morning of 16 December 1914,


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool was hit with a total of 1150 shells, killing 117 people. Two coastal defence batteries at Hartlepool returned fire, launching 143 shells, and damaging three German ships: SMS "Seydlitz", SMS "Moltke" and SMS "Blücher". The Hartlepool engagement lasted roughly 50 minutes, and the coastal artillery defence was supported by the Royal Navy in the form of four destroyers, two light cruisers and a submarine, none of which had any significant impact on the German attackers.


title: Hartlepool

text: Private Theophilus Jones of the 18th Battalion Durham Light Infantry, who fell as a result of this bombardment, is sometimes described as the first military casualty on British soil by enemy fire. This event (the death of the first soldiers on British soil) is commemorated by the 1921 Redheugh Gardens War Memorial together with a plaque unveiled on the same day (seven years and one day after the East Coast Raid) at the spot on the Headland (the memorial by Philip Bennison illustrates four soldiers on one of four cartouches and the plaque, donated by a member of the public, refers to the 'first soldier' but gives no name). A living history group, the Hartlepool Military Heritage Memorial Society, portray men of that unit for educational and memorial purposes.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepudlians voluntarily subscribed more money per head to the war effort than any other town in Britain.


title: Hartlepool

text: On 4 January 1922, a fire starting in a timber yard left 80 people homeless and caused over £1,000,000 pounds of damage. Hartlepool suffered badly in the Great Depression of the 1930s and endured high unemployment.


title: Hartlepool

text: Unemployment decreased during the Second World War, with shipbuilding and steel-making industries enjoying a renaissance. Most of its output for the war effort were "Empire Ships". German bombers raided the town 43 times, though, compared to the previous war, civilian losses were lighter with 26 deaths recorded by Hartlepool Municipal Borough and 49 by West Hartlepool Borough. During the Second World War, RAF Greatham (also known as RAF West Hartlepool) was located on the South British Steel Corporation Works.


title: Hartlepool

text: In 1891 the two towns had a combined population of 64,000. By 1900 the two Hartlepools were, together, one of the three busiest ports in England.


title: Hartlepool

text: The modern town represents a joining of "Old Hartlepool", locally known as the "Headland", and West Hartlepool. As already mentioned, what was West Hartlepool became the larger town and both were formally unified in 1967. Today the term "West Hartlepool" is rarely heard outside the context of sport, but one of the town's Rugby Union teams still retains the name.


title: Hartlepool

text: The name of the town's professional football club reflected both boroughs; when it was formed in 1908, following the success of West Hartlepool in winning the FA Amateur Cup in 1905, it was called "Hartlepools United" in the hope of attracting support from both towns. When the boroughs combined in 1967 the club renamed itself "Hartlepool" before re-renaming itself Hartlepool United in the 1970s. Many fans of the club still refer to the team as "Pools"


title: Hartlepool

text: After the war, industry went into a severe decline. "Blanchland", the last ship to be constructed in Hartlepool, left the slips in 1961. In 1967, Betty James wrote how "if I had the luck to live anywhere in the North East [of England]...I would live near Hartlepool. If I had the luck". There was a boost to the retail sector in 1970 when Middleton Grange Shopping Centre was opened by Princess Anne, with over 130 new shops including Marks & Spencer and Woolworths.


title: Hartlepool

text: Before the shopping centre was opened, the old town centre was located around Lynn Street, but most of the shops and the market had moved to a new shopping centre by 1974. Most of Lynn Street had by then been demolished to make way for a new housing estate. Only the north end of the street remains, now called Lynn Street North. This is where the Hartlepool Borough Council depot was based (alongside the Focus DIY store) until it moved to the marina in August 2006.


title: Hartlepool

text: In 1977, the British Steel Corporation announced the closure of its Hartlepool steelworks with the loss of 1500 jobs. In the 1980s the area was afflicted with extremely high levels of unemployment, at its peak consisting of 30 per cent of the town's working-age population, the highest in the United Kingdom. 630 jobs at British Steel were lost in 1983, and a total of 10,000 jobs were lost from the town in the economic de-industrialization of England's former Northern manufacturing heartlands. Between 1983 and 1999 the town lacked a cinema and areas of it became afflicted with the societal hallmarks of endemic economic poverty: urban decay, high crime levels, drug and alcohol dependency being prevalent.


title: Hartlepool

text: Docks near the centre were redeveloped and reopened, by Queen Elizabeth II, in 1993 as a marina with the accompanying National Museum of the Royal Navy opened in 1994, then known as the Hartlepool Historic Quay.


title: Hartlepool

text: A development corporation is under consultation until August 2022 to organise projects, with the town's fund given to the town and other funds. Plans would be (if the corporation is formed) focused on the railway station, waterfront (including the Royal Navy Museum and a new leisure centre) and Church Street. Northern School of Art also has funds for a TV and film studios.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool was traditionally administered as a part of the County Palatine of Durham until 1850 when Old Hartlepool i.e. the Headland was incorporated as a municipal borough with its headquarters, Hartlepool Borough Hall, completed in 1866.


title: Hartlepool

text: In 1887 West Hartlepool was also incorporated as a municipal borough, with its own headquarters, West Hartlepool Town Hall, completed in 1897. In 1902 West Hartlepool was incorporated as a county borough in its own right, remaining non-administratively in County Durham. The old Hartlepool Borough Council amalgamated with West Hartlepool Borough Council to form a combined authority in 1967.


title: Hartlepool

text: In 1974, the combined council was merged into Cleveland, which appointed its own Lord Lieutenant. The 1996 Banham Review, disbanded Cleveland county and gave unitary authority status to its four districts, Hartlepool borough and part of Stockton-on-Tees borough became a part of non-administrative County Durham under the Lieutenancies Act 1997. Since the 2010s, Hartlepool is also part of the Tees Valley region, a mayor for the region was elected in 2016. Although the former districts and boroughs of Durham now form the unitary authority of County Durham. This means that County Durham now has four unitary authorities.


title: Hartlepool

text: After boundary changes introduced in 2019, Hartlepool is now divided into 12 electoral wards, each of which elects three councillors who make up the 36 councillors of the Borough Council.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool is represented in the House of Commons by one Member of Parliament. The current MP for the Hartlepool constituency is Jill Mortimer of the Conservative Party. She was elected at the 2021 Hartlepool by-election with 51.9% of the vote.


title: Hartlepool

text: Mandelson, the MP between 1992 and 2004, resigned to take up a role in the European Commission. On 13 October 2008 he was created "Baron Mandelson of Foy and Hartlepool" following his appointment as Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform in the British Government.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool falls within the jurisdiction of Cleveland Fire Brigade and Cleveland Police. Before 1974, it was under the jurisdiction of the Durham Constabulary and Durham Fire Brigade. Hartlepool has two fire stations: a full-time station at Stranton and a retained station on the Headland.


title: Hartlepool

text: Nearby smaller towns include: Seaham (); Sedgefield (); Billingham () and Peterlee (). Beyond the far side of the Tees Bay, on the other side of the River Tees, the distant monument on Eston Nab can be seen on clear days.


title: Hartlepool

text: Hartlepool's economy has historically been linked with the maritime industry, something which is still at the heart of local business. Hartlepool Dock is owned and run by PD Ports. Engineering related jobs employ around 1700 people. Tata Steel Europe employ around 350 people in the manufacture of steel tubes, predominantly for the oil industry. South of the town on the banks of the Tees, Able UK operates the Teesside Environmental Reclamation and Recycling Centre (TERRC), a large scale marine recycling facility and dry dock. Adjacent to the east of TERRC is the Hartlepool nuclear power station, an advanced gas-cooled reactor (AGR) type nuclear power plant opened in the 1980s. It is the single largest employer in the town, employing 1 per cent of the town's working age people.


title: Hartlepool

text: The chemicals industry is important to the local economy. Companies include Huntsman Corporation, who produce titanium dioxide for use in paints, Omya, Baker Hughes and Frutarom.


title: Hartlepool

text: Tourism was worth £48 million to the town in 2009; this figure excludes the impact of the Tall Ships 2010. Hartlepool's historic links to the maritime industry are centred on the Maritime Experience, and the supporting exhibits PS "Wingfield Castle" and HMS "Trincomalee".


title: Hartlepool

text: Camerons Brewery was founded in 1852 and currently employs around 145 people. It is one of the largest breweries in the UK. Following a series of take-overs, it came under the control of the Castle Eden Brewery in 2001 who merged the two breweries, closing down the Castle Eden plant. It brews a range of cask and bottled beers, including "Strongarm", a 4% abv bitter. The brewery is heavily engaged in contract brewing such beers as Kronenbourg 1664, John Smith's and Foster's.


title: Hartlepool

text: Orchid Drinks of Hartlepool were formed in 1992 after a management buy out of the soft drinks arm of Camerons. They manufactured Purdey's and Amé. Following a £67 million takeover by Britvic, the site was closed down in 2009.


title: Hartlepool

text: Middleton Grange Shopping Centre is the main shopping location. 2800 people are employed in retail. The ten major retail companies in the town are Tesco, Morrisons, Asda, Next, Argos, Marks & Spencer, Aldi, Boots and Matalan. Aside from the local sports clubs, other local entertainment venues include a VUE Cinema and Mecca Bingo.


title: Hartlepool

text: Companies that have moved operations to the town for the offshore wind farm include Siemens and Van Oord.