title: Peak oil

text: Numerous predictions of the timing of peak oil have been made over the past century before being falsified by subsequent growth in the rate of petroleum extraction. M. King Hubbert is often credited with introducing the notion in a 1956 paper which presented a formal theory and predicted U.S. extraction to peak between 1965 and 1971. Hubbert's original predictions for world peak oil production proved premature and, , forecasts of the year of peak oil range from 2019 to 2040. These predictions are dependent on future economic trends, technological developments, and efforts by societies and governments to moderate climate change.


title: Peak oil

text: Predictions of future oil production made in 2007 and 2009 stated either that the peak had already occurred, that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur soon. A decade later world oil production rose to hit a new high in 2018, as developments in extraction technology enabled an expansion of U.S. tight oil production. Following a collapse in oil demand at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a number of organizations have put forward predictions of a peak in the next 10 to 15 years.


title: Peak oil

text: The idea that the rate of oil production would peak and irreversibly decline is an old one. In 1919, David White, chief geologist of the United States Geological Survey, wrote of US petroleum: "... the peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years." In 1953, Eugene Ayers, a researcher for Gulf Oil, projected that if US ultimate recoverable oil reserves were 100 billion barrels, then production in the US would peak no later than 1960. If ultimate recoverable were to be as high as 200 billion barrels, which he warned was wishful thinking, US peak production would come no later than 1970. Likewise for the world, he projected a peak somewhere between 1985 (one trillion barrels ultimate recoverable) and 2000 (two trillion barrels recoverable). Ayers made his projections without a mathematical model. He wrote: "But if the curve is made to look reasonable, it is quite possible to adapt mathematical expressions to it and to determine, in this way, the peak dates corresponding to various ultimate recoverable reserve numbers"


title: Peak oil

text: By observing past discoveries and production levels, and predicting future discovery trends, the geoscientist M. King Hubbert used statistical modelling in 1956 to predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1971. This prediction appeared accurate for a time however during 2018 daily production of oil in the United States was exceeding daily production in 1970, the year that was previously the peak. Hubbert used a semi-logistical curved model (sometimes incorrectly compared to a normal distribution). He assumed the production rate of a limited resource would follow a roughly symmetrical distribution. Depending on the limits of exploitability and market pressures, the rise or decline of resource production over time might be sharper or more stable, appear more linear or curved. That model and its variants are now called Hubbert peak theory; they have been used to describe and predict the peak and decline of production from regions, countries, and multinational areas. The same theory has also been applied to other limited-resource production.


title: Peak oil

text: More recently, the term "peak oil" was popularized by Colin Campbell and Kjell Aleklett in 2002 when they helped form the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). In his publications, Hubbert used the term "peak production rate" and "peak in the rate of discoveries".


title: Peak oil

text: In a 2006 analysis of Hubbert theory, it was noted that uncertainty in real world oil production amounts and confusion in definitions increases the uncertainty in general of production predictions. By comparing the fit of various other models, it was found that Hubbert's methods yielded the closest fit overall but none of the models were very accurate. In 1956 Hubbert himself recommended using "a family of possible production curves" when predicting a production peak and decline curve.


title: Peak oil

text: The report noted that Hubbert had used the logistic curve because it was mathematically convenient, not because he believed it to be literally correct. The study observed that in most cases the asymmetric exponential model provided a better fit (as in the case of Seneca cliff model), and that peaks tended to occur well before half the oil had been produced, with the result that in nearly all cases, the post-peak decline was more gradual than the increase leading up to the peak.


title: Peak oil

text: The demand side of peak oil over time is concerned with the total quantity of oil that the global market would choose to consume at any given market price. The hypothesis that peak oil would be driven by a reduction in the availability of easily extractable oil implies that prices will increase over time to match demand with a declining supply. By contrast, developments since 2010 have given rise to the idea of demand-driven peak oil. The central idea is that, in response to technological developments and pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, demand for oil at any given price will decline. In this context, the development of electric vehicles creates the possibility that the primary use of oil, transportation, will diminish in importance over time.


title: Peak oil

text: After growing steadily until around 2006, oil demand has fluctuated, falling during recession periods, and then recovering, but at slower growth rates than in the past. Oil demand fell sharply during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, with global demand for oil dropping from 100 million barrels a day in 2019 to 90 million in 2020. The drop in demand is not expected to recover until at least 2022, and British Petroleum predicts that oil demand will never recover to pre-pandemic levels due to increased proliferation of electric vehicles and stronger action on climate change. Developments in 2021 at Exxon, Chevron and Shell also lent further credence to the idea that peak oil had happened in 2019.


title: Peak oil

text: Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial. In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 71% of the oil used in the United States in 2013. and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of peak oil.


title: Peak oil

text: Although demand growth is highest in the developing world, the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from per day. China, by comparison, increased consumption from per day in the same time frame. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that gasoline usage in the United States may have peaked in 2007, in part because of increasing interest in and mandates for use of biofuels and energy efficiency.


title: Peak oil

text: As countries develop, industry and higher living standards drive up energy use, oil usage being a major component. Thriving economies, such as China and India, are quickly becoming large oil consumers. For example, China surpassed the United States as the world's largest crude oil importer in 2015. Oil consumption growth is expected to continue; however, not at previous rates, as China's economic growth is predicted to decrease from the high rates of the early part of the 21st century. India's oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2005 levels by 2020, rising to per day.


title: Peak oil

text: Another significant factor affecting petroleum demand has been human population growth. The United States Census Bureau predicts that world population in 2030 will be almost double that of 1980. Oil production per capita peaked in 1979 at 5.5 barrels/year but then declined to fluctuate around 4.5 barrels/year since. In this regard, the decreasing population growth rate since the 1970s has somewhat ameliorated the per capita decline.


title: Peak oil

text: Some analysts argue that the cost of oil has a profound effect on economic growth due to its pivotal role in the extraction of resources and the processing, manufacturing, and transportation of goods. As the industrial effort to extract new unconventional oil sources increases, this has a compounding negative effect on all sectors of the economy, leading to economic stagnation or even eventual contraction. Such a scenario would result in an inability for national economies to pay high oil prices, leading to declining demand and a price collapse.


title: Peak oil

text: Oil may come from conventional or unconventional sources. The terms are not strictly defined, and vary within the literature as definitions based on new technologies tend to change over time. As a result, different oil forecasting studies have included different classes of liquid fuels. Some use the terms "conventional" oil for what is included in the model, and "unconventional" oil for classes excluded.


title: Peak oil

text: In 1956, Hubbert confined his peak oil prediction to that crude oil "producible by methods now in use." By 1962, however, his analyses included future improvements in exploration and production. All of Hubbert's analyses of peak oil specifically excluded oil manufactured from oil shale or mined from oil sands. A 2013 study predicting an early peak excluded deepwater oil, tight oil, oil with API gravity less than 17.5, and oil close to the poles, such as that on the North Slope of Alaska, all of which it defined as non-conventional. Some commonly used definitions for conventional and unconventional oil are detailed below.


title: Peak oil

text: Conventional oil is extracted on land and offshore using "standard" (i.e., in common use before 2000) techniques, and can be categorized as light, medium, heavy, or extra heavy in grade. The exact definitions of these grades vary depending on the region from which the oil came.


title: Peak oil

text: Light oil flows naturally to the surface or can be extracted by simply pumping it out of the ground. Heavy refers to oil that has higher density and therefore lower API gravity. It does not flow easily, and its consistency is similar to that of molasses. While some of it can be produced using conventional techniques, recovery rates are better using unconventional methods.


title: Peak oil

text: According to the International Energy Agency, production of conventional crude oil (as then defined) peaked in 2006, with an all-time maximum of 70 million barrels per day.


title: Peak oil

text: The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in the 1960s at around (Gb)/year. According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), the rate of discovery has been falling steadily since. Less than 10 Gb/yr of oil were discovered each year between 2002 and 2007. According to a 2010 Reuters article, the annual rate of discovery of new fields has remained remarkably constant at 15–20 Gb/yr.


title: Peak oil

text: But despite the fall-off in new field discoveries, and record-high production rates, the reported proved reserves of crude oil remaining in the ground in 2014, which totaled 1,490 billion barrels, not counting Canadian heavy oil sands, were more than quadruple the 1965 proved reserves of 354 billion barrels. A researcher for the U.S. Energy Information Administration has pointed out that after the first wave of discoveries in an area, most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields.


title: Peak oil

text: A report by the UK Energy Research Centre noted that "discovery" is often used ambiguously, and explained the seeming contradiction between falling discovery rates since the 1960s and increasing reserves by the phenomenon of reserve growth. The report noted that increased reserves within a field may be discovered or developed by new technology years or decades after the original discovery. But because of the practice of "backdating", any new reserves within a field, even those to be discovered decades after the field discovery, are attributed to the year of initial field discovery, creating an illusion that discovery is not keeping pace with production.


title: Peak oil

text: Total possible conventional crude oil reserves include crude oil with 90% certainty of being technically able to be produced from reservoirs (through a wellbore using primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary methods); all crude with a 50% probability of being produced in the future (probable); and discovered reserves that have a 10% possibility of being produced in the future (possible). Reserve estimates based on these are referred to as 1P, proven (at least 90% probability); 2P, proven and probable (at least 50% probability); and 3P, proven, probable and possible (at least 10% probability), respectively. This does not include liquids extracted from mined solids or gasses (oil sands, oil shale, gas-to-liquid processes, or coal-to-liquid processes).


title: Peak oil

text: Hubbert's 1956 peak projection for the United States depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, but starting in his 1962 publication, he concluded that ultimate oil recovery was an output of his mathematical analysis, rather than an assumption. He regarded his peak oil calculation as independent of reserve estimates.


title: Peak oil

text: Many current 2P calculations predict reserves to be between 1150 and 1350 Gb, but some authors have written that because of misinformation, withheld information, and misleading reserve calculations, 2P reserves are likely nearer to 850–900 Gb. The Energy Watch Group wrote that actual reserves peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries, that apparent increases in reserves since then are illusory, and concluded (in 2007): "Probably the world oil production has peaked already, but we cannot be sure yet."


title: Peak oil

text: Sadad Al Husseini estimated that of the world's of proven reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources.


title: Peak oil

text: One difficulty in forecasting the date of peak oil is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as "proven". In many major producing countries, the majority of reserves claims have not been subject to outside audit or examination. Several worrying signs concerning the depletion of proven reserves emerged in about 2004. This was best exemplified by the 2004 scandal surrounding the "evaporation" of 20% of Shell's reserves.


title: Peak oil

text: For the most part, proven reserves are stated by the oil companies, the producer states and the consumer states. All three have reasons to overstate their proven reserves: oil companies may look to increase their potential worth; producer countries gain a stronger international stature; and governments of consumer countries may seek a means to foster sentiments of security and stability within their economies and among consumers.


title: Peak oil

text: Major discrepancies arise from accuracy issues with the self-reported numbers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Besides the possibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons (during periods of no substantial discoveries), over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production. Analysts have suggested that OPEC member nations have economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves, as the OPEC quota system allows greater output for countries with greater reserves.


title: Peak oil

text: Kuwait, for example, was reported in the January 2006 issue of "Petroleum Intelligence Weekly" to have only in reserve, of which only 24 were fully proven. This report was based on the leak of a confidential document from Kuwait and has not been formally denied by the Kuwaiti authorities. This leaked document is from 2001, but excludes revisions or discoveries made since then. Additionally, the reported of oil burned off by Iraqi soldiers in the First Persian Gulf War are conspicuously missing from Kuwait's figures.


title: Peak oil

text: On the other hand, investigative journalist Greg Palast argues that oil companies have an interest in making oil look more rare than it is, to justify higher prices. This view is contested by ecological journalist Richard Heinberg. Other analysts argue that oil producing countries understate the extent of their reserves to drive up the price.


title: Peak oil

text: The EUR reported by the 2000 USGS survey of has been criticized for assuming a discovery trend over the next twenty years that would reverse the observed trend of the past 40 years. Their 95% confidence EUR of assumed that discovery levels would stay steady, despite the fact that new-field discovery rates have declined since the 1960s. That trend of falling discoveries has continued in the ten years since the USGS made their assumption. The 2000 USGS is also criticized for other assumptions, as well as assuming 2030 production rates inconsistent with projected reserves.


title: Peak oil

text: As conventional oil becomes less available, it can be replaced with production of liquids from unconventional sources such as tight oil, oil sands, ultra-heavy oils, gas-to-liquid technologies, coal-to-liquid technologies, biofuel technologies, and shale oil. In the 2007 and subsequent International Energy Outlook editions, the word "Oil" was replaced with "Liquids" in the chart of world energy consumption. In 2009 biofuels was included in "Liquids" instead of in "Renewables". The inclusion of natural gas liquids, a bi-product of natural gas extraction, in "Liquids" has been criticized as it is mostly a chemical feedstock which is generally not used as transport fuel.


title: Peak oil

text: Reserve estimates are based on profitability, which depends on both oil price and cost of production. Hence, unconventional sources such as heavy crude oil, oil sands, and oil shale may be included as new techniques reduce the cost of extraction. With rule changes by the SEC, oil companies can now book them as proven reserves after opening a strip mine or thermal facility for extraction. These unconventional sources are more labor and resource intensive to produce, however, requiring extra energy to refine, resulting in higher production costs and up to three times more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel (or barrel equivalent) on a "well to tank" basis or 10 to 45% more on a "well to wheels" basis, which includes the carbon emitted from combustion of the final product.


title: Peak oil

text: While the energy used, resources needed, and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources have traditionally been prohibitively high, major unconventional oil sources being considered for large-scale production are the extra heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela, the Athabasca Oil Sands in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the oil shale of the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming in the United States. Energy companies such as Syncrude and Suncor have been extracting bitumen for decades but production has increased greatly in recent years with the development of steam-assisted gravity drainage and other extraction technologies.


title: Peak oil

text: Chuck Masters of the USGS estimates that, "Taken together, these resource occurrences, in the Western Hemisphere, are approximately equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East." Authorities familiar with the resources believe that the world's ultimate reserves of unconventional oil are several times as large as those of conventional oil and will be highly profitable for companies as a result of higher prices in the 21st century. In October 2009, the USGS updated the Orinoco tar sands (Venezuela) recoverable "mean value" to , with a 90% chance of being within the range of 380-, making this area "one of the world's largest recoverable oil accumulations".


title: Peak oil

text: Despite the large quantities of oil available in non-conventional sources, Matthew Simmons argued in 2005 that limitations on production prevent them from becoming an effective substitute for conventional crude oil. Simmons stated "these are high energy intensity projects that can never reach high volumes" to offset significant losses from other sources. Another study claims that even under highly optimistic assumptions, "Canada's oil sands will not prevent peak oil", although production could reach by 2030 in a "crash program" development effort.


title: Peak oil

text: Moreover, oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as sulfur and heavy metals that are energy-intensive to extract and can leave tailings, ponds containing hydrocarbon sludge, in some cases. The same applies to much of the Middle East's undeveloped conventional oil reserves, much of which is heavy, viscous, and contaminated with sulfur and metals to the point of being unusable. However, high oil prices make these sources more financially appealing. A study by Wood Mackenzie suggests that by the early 2020s all the world's extra oil supply is likely to come from unconventional sources.


title: Peak oil

text: The point in time when peak global oil production occurs defines peak oil. Some believe that the increasing industrial effort to extract oil will have a negative effect on global economic growth, leading to demand contraction and a price collapse, thereby causing production decline as some unconventional sources become uneconomical. Some believe that the peak may be to some extent led by declining demand as new technologies and improving efficiency shift energy usage away from oil.


title: Peak oil

text: Worldwide oil discoveries have been less than annual production since 1980. World population has grown faster than oil production. Because of this, oil production "per capita" peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973–1979).


title: Peak oil

text: The increasing investment in harder-to-reach oil as of 2005 was said to signal oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil. While it is widely believed that increased oil prices spur an increase in production, an increased number of oil industry insiders believed in 2008 that even with higher prices, oil production was unlikely to increase significantly. Among the reasons cited were both geological factors as well as "above ground" factors that are likely to see oil production plateau.


title: Peak oil

text: A 2008 "Journal of Energy Security" analysis of the energy return on drilling effort (energy returned on energy invested, also referred to as EROEI) in the United States concluded that there was extremely limited potential to increase production of both gas and (especially) oil. By looking at the historical response of production to variation in drilling effort, the analysis showed very little increase of production attributable to increased drilling. This was because of diminishing returns with increasing drilling effort: as drilling effort increased, the energy obtained per active drill rig in the past had been reduced according to a severely diminishing power law. The study concluded that even an enormous increase of drilling effort was unlikely to significantly increase oil and gas production in a mature petroleum region such as the United States. However, contrary to the study's conclusion, since the analysis was published in 2008, US production of crude oil has more than doubled, increasing 119%, and production of dry natural gas has increased 51% (2018 compared to 2008).


title: Peak oil

text: The previous assumption of inevitable declining volumes of oil and gas produced per unit of effort is contrary to recent experience in the US. In the United States, as of 2017, there has been an ongoing decade-long increase in the productivity of oil and gas drilling in all the major tight oil and gas plays. The US Energy Information Administration reports, for instance, that in the Bakken Shale production area of North Dakota, the volume of oil produced per day of drilling rig time in January 2017 was 4 times the oil volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January 2012, and nearly 10 times the oil volume per day of ten years previous, in January 2007. In the Marcellus gas region of the northeast, The volume of gas produced per day of drilling time in January 2017 was 3 times the gas volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January 2012, and 28 times the gas volume per day of drilling ten years previous, in January 2007.


title: Peak oil

text: New research estimates that the energy required to produce all petroleum liquids (not including transportation, refining and distribution) represents today the equivalent of 16% of this same production and by 2050, an amount equivalent to half of the gross energy production will be required. For gases, the energy needed for production is estimated to be equivalent to 7% of the gross energy produced today, and 24% for 2050.


title: Peak oil

text: Average yearly gains in global supply from 1987 to 2005 were (1.7%). In 2005, the IEA predicted that 2030 production rates would reach , but this number was gradually reduced to . A 2008 analysis of IEA predictions questioned several underlying assumptions and claimed that a 2030 production level of (comprising of crude oil and of both non-conventional oil and natural gas liquids) was more realistic than the IEA numbers. More recently, the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 indicated no production peak out to 2040. However, this required a future Brent crude oil price of $US144/bbl (2013 dollars) "as growing demand leads to the development of more costly resources".


title: Peak oil

text: In a 2013 study of 733 giant oil fields, only 32% of the ultimately recoverable oil, condensate and gas remained. Ghawar, which is the largest oil field in the world and responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia's oil production over the last 50 years, was in decline before 2009. The world's second largest oil field, the Burgan Field in Kuwait, entered decline in November 2005.


title: Peak oil

text: Mexico announced that production from its giant Cantarell Field began to decline in March 2006, reportedly at a rate of 13% per year. Also in 2006, Saudi Aramco Senior Vice President Abdullah Saif estimated that its existing fields were declining at a rate of 5% to 12% per year. According to a study of the largest 811 oilfields conducted in early 2008 by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the average rate of field decline is 4.5% per year. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas agreed with their decline rates, but considered the rate of new fields coming online overly optimistic. The IEA stated in November 2008 that an analysis of 800 oilfields showed the decline in oil production to be 6.7% a year for fields past their peak, and that this would grow to 8.6% in 2030. A more rapid annual rate of decline of 5.1% in 800 of the world's largest oil fields weighted for production over their whole lives was reported by the International Energy Agency in their World Energy Outlook 2008. The 2013 study of 733 giant fields mentioned previously had an average decline rate 3.83% which was described as "conservative." The United States' oil production peaked in February 2020, at about 18,826,000 barrels per day.


title: Peak oil

text: Entities such as governments or cartels can reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply through nationalizing oil, cutting back on production, limiting drilling rights, imposing taxes, etc. International sanctions, corruption, and military conflicts can also reduce supply.


title: Peak oil

text: Another factor affecting global oil supply is the nationalization of oil reserves by producing nations. The nationalization of oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize oil production and withhold exports. Kate Dourian, Platts' Middle East editor, points out that while estimates of oil reserves may vary, politics have now entered the equation of oil supply. "Some countries are becoming off limits. Major oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves."


title: Peak oil

text: According to consulting firm PFC Energy, only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow companies like ExxonMobil free rein. Fully 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, with the rest in countries such as Russia and Venezuela, where access by Western European and North American companies is difficult. The PFC study implies political factors are limiting capacity increases in Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Russia. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion, but because of a self-imposed cap, unlike the other countries. As a result of not having access to countries amenable to oil exploration, ExxonMobil is not making nearly the investment in finding new oil that it did in 1981.


title: Peak oil

text: OPEC is an alliance among 14 diverse oil-producing countries (as of January 2019: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela) to manage the supply of oil. OPEC's power was consolidated in the 1960s and 1970s as various countries nationalized their oil holdings, and wrested decision-making away from the "Seven Sisters" (Anglo-Iranian, Socony, Royal Dutch Shell, Gulf, Esso, Texaco, Socal), and created their own oil companies to control the oil. OPEC often tries to influence prices by restricting production. It does this by allocating each member country a quota for production. Members agree to keep prices high by producing at lower levels than they otherwise would. There is no way to enforce adherence to the quota, so each member has an individual incentive to "cheat" the cartel.


title: Peak oil

text: Commodities trader Raymond Learsy, author of "Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel", contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that oil is a much more finite resource than it is. To back his argument, he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration. He also believes that peak oil analysts have conspired with OPEC and the oil companies to create a "fabricated drama of peak oil" to drive up oil prices and profits; oil had risen to a little over $30/barrel at that time. A counter-argument was given in the Huffington Post after he and Steve Andrews, co-founder of ASPO, debated on CNBC in June 2007.


title: Peak oil

text: After the millennium, global oil extraction was characterized by sequences of years with relatively stable extraction figures (75 mio. barrel/d 2000–2002, 82-83 mio. barrel/d 2005–2010, 92-95 mio. barrel/d 2015–2019) and two episodes of 9-10% growth in between. 2019's production of 94.961 mio. barrel/d (34.7 bio. barrel/a, 5.5 mio. m/a) surpassed 2018 by just 0.1% and was ranked as a candidate for peak oil, as production fell by 7% in 2020 to only partially rebound in 2021 and (expected) in 2022.


title: Peak oil

text: In 1962, Hubbert predicted that world oil production would peak at a rate of 12.5 billion barrels per year, around the year 2000. In 1974, Hubbert predicted that peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue". Those predictions proved incorrect. A number of industry leaders and analysts believe that world oil production will peak between 2015 and 2030, with a significant chance that the peak will occur before 2020. They consider dates after 2030 implausible. By comparison, a 2014 analysis of production and reserve data predicted a peak in oil production about 2035. Determining a more specific range is difficult due to the lack of certainty over the actual size of world oil reserves. Unconventional oil is not currently predicted to meet the expected shortfall even in a best-case scenario. For unconventional oil to fill the gap without "potentially serious impacts on the global economy", oil production would have to remain stable after its peak, until 2035 at the earliest.


title: Peak oil

text: Papers published since 2010 have been relatively pessimistic. A 2010 Kuwait University study predicted production would peak in 2014. A 2010 Oxford University study predicted that production would peak before 2015, but its projection of a change soon "... from a demand-led market to a supply constrained market ..." was incorrect. A 2014 validation of a significant 2004 study in the journal "Energy" proposed that it is likely that conventional oil production peaked, according to various definitions, between 2005 and 2011. A set of models published in a 2014 Ph.D. thesis predicted that a 2012 peak would be followed by a drop in oil prices, which in some scenarios could turn into a rapid rise in prices thereafter. According to energy blogger Ron Patterson, the peak of world oil production was probably around 2010.


title: Peak oil

text: Major oil companies hit peak production in 2005. Several sources in 2006 and 2007 predicted that worldwide production was at or past its maximum. However, in 2013 OPEC's figures showed that world crude oil production and remaining proven reserves were at record highs. According to Matthew Simmons, former Chairman of Simmons & Company International and author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy", "peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late."


title: Peak oil

text: The wide use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution, allowing humans to participate in takedown, or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that when oil production decreases, human culture and modern technological society will be forced to change drastically. The impact of peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives.


title: Peak oil

text: In 2005, the United States Department of Energy published a report titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management". Known as the Hirsch report, it stated, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." Some of the information was updated in 2007.


title: Peak oil

text: The oil price historically was comparatively low until the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 oil crisis when it increased more than tenfold during that six-year timeframe. Even though the oil price dropped significantly in the following years, it has never come back to the previous levels. Oil price began to increase again during the 2000s until it hit historical heights of $143 per barrel (2007 inflation adjusted dollars) on 30 June 2008. As these prices were well above those that caused the 1973 and 1979 energy crises, they contributed to fears of an economic recession similar to that of the early 1980s.


title: Peak oil

text: It is generally agreed that the main reason for the price spike in 2005–2008 was strong demand pressure. For example, global consumption of oil rose from in 2004 to 31 billion in 2005. The consumption rates were far above new discoveries in the period, which had fallen to only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves in new accumulations in 2004.


title: Peak oil

text: Oil price increases were partially fueled by reports that petroleum production is at or near full capacity. In June 2005, OPEC stated that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year. From 2007 to 2008, the decline in the U.S. dollar against other significant currencies was also considered as a significant reason for the oil price increases, as the dollar lost approximately 14% of its value against the Euro from May 2007 to May 2008.


title: Peak oil

text: Besides supply and demand pressures, at times security related factors may have contributed to increases in prices, including the War on Terror, missile launches in North Korea, the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon, nuclear brinkmanship between the U.S. and Iran, and reports from the U.S. Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves.


title: Peak oil

text: More recently, between 2011 and 2014 the price of crude oil was relatively stable, fluctuating around $US 100 per barrel. It dropped sharply in late 2014 to below $US70 where it remained for most of 2015. In early 2016 it traded at a low of $US27. The price drop has been attributed to both oversupply and reduced demand as a result of the slowing global economy, OPEC reluctance to concede market share, and a stronger US dollar. These factors may be exacerbated by a combination of monetary policy and the increased debt of oil producers, who may increase production to maintain liquidity.


title: Peak oil

text: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in oil prices declining from approximately 60 dollars a barrel to 20 between January and April 2020 and market prices briefly becoming negative. On 22 April 2020, the North Dakota's crude oil spot prices were for Williston Sweet $-46.75 and Williston Sour $-51.31 (oilprice charts).


title: Peak oil

text: While the WTI was traded $6.46. WTI futures lowest price was above $-37 per barrel on 20 April 2020. In 2021, the record-high energy prices were driven by a global surge in demand as the world quit the economic recession caused by COVID-19, particularly due to strong energy demand in Asia. The price of oil was about $80 by October 2021, the highest since 2014.


title: Peak oil

text: In the past, sudden increases in the price of oil have led to economic recessions, such as the 1973 and 1979 energy crises. The effect the increased price of oil has on an economy is known as a price shock. In many European countries, which have high taxes on fuels, such price shocks could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise. This method of softening price shocks is less useful in countries with much lower gas taxes, such as the United States. A baseline scenario for a recent IMF paper found oil production growing at 0.8% (as opposed to a historical average of 1.8%) would result in a small reduction in economic growth of 0.2–0.4%.


title: Peak oil

text: Researchers at the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum found that the economy can adjust to steady, gradual increases in the price of crude better than wild lurches.


title: Peak oil

text: Some economists predict that a substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources, such as coal or liquefied natural gas. This substitution can be only temporary, as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well.


title: Peak oil

text: Prior to the run-up in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada, and other countries. This trend has been reversing because of sustained high prices of fuel. The September 2005 sales data for all vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased. Hybrid and diesel vehicles are also gaining in popularity.


title: Peak oil

text: EIA published Household Vehicles Energy Use: Latest Data and Trends in Nov 2005 illustrating the steady increase in disposable income and $20–30 per barrel price of oil in 2004. The report notes "The average household spent $1,520 on fuel purchases for transport." According to CNBC that expense climbed to $4,155 in 2011.


title: Peak oil

text: In 2008, a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States, and that record energy prices would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices. The total miles driven in the U.S. peaked in 2006.


title: Peak oil

text: The Export Land Model states that after peak oil petroleum exporting countries will be forced to reduce their exports more quickly than their production decreases because of internal demand growth. Countries that rely on imported petroleum will therefore be affected earlier and more dramatically than exporting countries. Mexico is already in this situation. Internal consumption grew by 5.9% in 2006 in the five biggest exporting countries, and their exports declined by over 3%. It was estimated that by 2010 internal demand would decrease worldwide exports by .


title: Peak oil

text: Canadian economist Jeff Rubin has stated that high oil prices are likely to result in increased consumption in developed countries through partial manufacturing de-globalisation of trade. Manufacturing production would move closer to the end consumer to minimise transportation network costs, and therefore a demand decoupling from gross domestic product would occur. Higher oil prices would lead to increased freighting costs and consequently, the manufacturing industry would move back to the developed countries since freight costs would outweigh the current economic wage advantage of developing countries. Economic research carried out by the International Monetary Fund puts overall price elasticity of demand for oil at −0.025 short-term and −0.093 long term.


title: Peak oil

text: Since supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern agriculture techniques, a fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented famine in the coming decades.


title: Peak oil

text: The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is ammonia production (for fertilizer) via the Haber process, which is essential to high-yielding intensive agriculture. The specific fossil fuel input to fertilizer production is primarily natural gas, to provide hydrogen via steam reforming. Given sufficient supplies of renewable electricity, hydrogen can be generated without fossil fuels using methods such as electrolysis. For example, the Vemork hydroelectric plant in Norway used its surplus electricity output to generate renewable ammonia from 1911 to 1971.


title: Peak oil

text: Iceland currently generates ammonia using the electrical output from its hydroelectric and geothermal power plants, because Iceland has those resources in abundance while having no domestic hydrocarbon resources, and a high cost for importing natural gas.


title: Peak oil

text: A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement designed around universal personal automobile use. Commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that the suburbs' reliance on the automobile is an unsustainable living arrangement. Peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to use other forms of transportation such as bicycles or electric vehicles. Additional options include remote work, moving to rural areas, or moving to higher density areas, where walking and public transportation are more viable options. In the latter two cases, suburbs may become the "slums of the future." The issue of petroleum supply and demand is also a concern for growing cities in developing countries (where urban areas are expected to absorb most of the world's projected 2.3 billion population increase by 2050). Stressing the energy component of future development plans is seen as an important goal.


title: Peak oil

text: Rising oil prices, if they occur, would also affect the cost of food, heating, and electricity. A high amount of stress would then be put on current middle to low income families as economies contract from the decline in excess funds, decreasing employment rates. The Hirsch/US DoE Report concludes that "without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide."


title: Peak oil

text: Methods that have been suggested for mitigating these urban and suburban issues include the use of non-petroleum vehicles such as electric cars, battery electric vehicles, transit-oriented development, carfree cities, bicycles, new trains, new pedestrianism, smart growth, shared space, urban consolidation, urban villages, and New Urbanism.


title: Peak oil

text: An extensive 2009 report on the effects of compact development by the United States National Research Council of the Academy of Sciences, commissioned by the United States Congress, stated six main findings. First, that compact development is likely to reduce "Vehicle Miles Traveled" (VMT) throughout the country. Second, that doubling residential density in a given area could reduce VMT by as much as 25% if coupled with measures such as increased employment density and improved public transportation. Third, that higher density, mixed-use developments would produce both direct reductions in emissions (from less driving), and indirect reductions (such as from lower amounts of materials used per housing unit, higher efficiency climate control, longer vehicle lifespans, and higher efficiency delivery of goods and services). Fourth, that although short-term reductions in energy use and emissions would be modest, that these reductions would become more significant over time. Fifth, that a major obstacle to more compact development in the United States is political resistance from local zoning regulators, which would hamper efforts by state and regional governments to participate in land-use planning. Sixth, the committee agreed that changes in development that would alter driving patterns and building efficiency would have various secondary costs and benefits that are difficult to quantify. The report recommends that policies supporting compact development (and especially its ability to reduce driving, energy use, and emissions) should be encouraged.


title: Peak oil

text: An economic theory that has been proposed as a remedy is the introduction of a steady state economy. Such a system could include a tax shifting from income to depleting natural resources (and pollution), as well as the limitation of advertising that stimulates demand and population growth. It could also include the institution of policies that move away from globalization and toward localization to conserve energy resources, provide local jobs, and maintain local decision-making authority. Zoning policies could be adjusted to promote resource conservation and eliminate sprawl.


title: Peak oil

text: Since aviation relies mainly on jet fuels derived from crude oil, commercial aviation has been predicted to go into decline with the global oil production.


title: Peak oil

text: To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives, at least ten to twenty years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time. This was similar to a plan proposed for Sweden that same year. Such mitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of unconventional oil. The timing of mitigation responses is critical. Premature initiation would be undesirable, but if initiated too late could be more costly and have more negative economic consequences.


title: Peak oil

text: Global annual crude oil production (including shale oil, oil sands, lease condensate and gas plant condensate but excluding liquid fuels from other sources such as natural gas liquids, biomass and derivatives of coal and natural gas) increased from in 2008 to per day in 2018 with a marginal annual growth rate of 1%. Many developed countries are already able to reduce the petro products consumption derived from crude oil. Crude oil consumption in oil exporting countries (OPEC and non OPEC countries), China and India has increased in last decade. The two major consumers, China (second globally) and India (third globally), are taking many steps not to increase their crude oil consumption by encouraging the renewable energy options. These are the clear cut signs that peak oil production due to declining crude oil consumption (not due to declining availability) is imminent in next few years mandated by alternate cheaper energy means/sources. During the year 2020, the crude oil consumption would decrease from earlier year due to COVID-19 pandemic.


title: Peak oil

text: Permaculture sees peak oil as holding tremendous potential for positive change, assuming countries act with foresight. The rebuilding of local food networks, energy production, and the general implementation of "energy descent culture" are argued to be ethical responses to the acknowledgment of finite fossil resources. Majorca is an island currently diversifying its energy supply from fossil fuels to alternative sources and looking back at traditional construction and permaculture methods.


title: Peak oil

text: The Transition Towns movement, started in Totnes, Devon and spread internationally by "The Transition Handbook" (Rob Hopkins) and Transition Network, sees the restructuring of society for more local resilience and ecological stewardship as a natural response to the combination of peak oil and climate change.


title: Peak oil

text: The theory of peak oil is controversial and became an issue of political debate in the US and Europe in the mid-2000s. Critics argued that newly found oil reserves forestalled a peak oil event. Some argued that oil production from new oil reserves and existing fields will continue to increase at a rate that outpaces demand, until alternate energy sources for current fossil fuel dependence are found. In 2015, analysts in the petroleum and financial industries claimed that the "age of oil" had already reached a new stage where the excess supply that appeared in late 2014 may continue.


title: Peak oil

text: A consensus was emerging that parties to an international agreement would introduce measures to constrain the combustion of hydrocarbons in an effort to limit global temperature rise to the nominal 2 °C that scientists predicted would limit environmental harm to tolerable levels.


title: Peak oil

text: Another argument against the peak oil theory is reduced demand from various options and technologies substituting oil. US federal funding to develop algae fuels increased since 2000 due to rising fuel prices. Many other projects are being funded in


title: Peak oil

text: Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere and private companies are entering the field.


title: Peak oil

text: John Hofmeister, president of Royal Dutch Shell's US operations, while agreeing that conventional oil production would soon start to decline, criticized the analysis of peak oil theory by Matthew Simmons for being "overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter and OPEC swing producer." Hofmeister pointed to the large reserves at the US outer continental shelf, which held an estimated of oil and natural gas. However, only 15% of those reserves were currently exploitable, a good part of that off the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.


title: Peak oil

text: Hofmeister also pointed to unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada, where Shell was active. The Canadian oil sands—a natural combination of sand, water, and oil found largely in Alberta and Saskatchewan—are believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil. Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, in the form of oil shale. Environmentalists argue that major environmental, social, and economic obstacles would make extracting oil from these areas excessively difficult. Hofmeister argued that if oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another , oil and gas prices would not be as high as they were in the late 2000s. He thought in 2008 that high energy prices would cause social unrest similar to the 1992 Rodney King riots.


title: Peak oil

text: Rühl argued that the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" factors such as the availability of staff, expertise, technology, investment security, funds, and global warming, and that the oil question was about price and not the physical availability.


title: Peak oil

text: In 2008, Daniel Yergin of CERA suggest that a recent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry, not of complete exhaustion of resources or an apocalyptic shock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives. Yergin went on to say, "This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil. Each time-whether it was the 'gasoline famine' at the end of WWI or the 'permanent shortage' of the 1970s-technology and the opening of new frontier areas have banished the spectre of decline. There's no reason to think that technology is finished this time."


title: Peak oil

text: In 2006, Clive Mather, CEO of Shell Canada, said the Earth's supply of bitumen hydrocarbons was "almost infinite", referring to hydrocarbons in oil sands.


title: Peak oil

text: In 2006 attorney and mechanical engineer Peter W. Huber asserted that the world was just running out of "cheap oil", explaining that as oil prices rise, unconventional sources become economically viable. He predicted that, "[t]he tar sands of Alberta alone contain enough hydrocarbon to fuel the entire planet for over 100 years."


title: Peak oil

text: Environmental journalist George Monbiot responded to a 2012 report by Leonardo Maugeri by suggesting that there is more than enough oil (from unconventional sources) to "deep-fry" the world with climate change. Stephen Sorrell, senior lecturer Science and Technology Policy Research, Sussex Energy Group, and lead author of the UKERC Global Oil Depletion report, and Christophe McGlade, doctoral researcher at the UCL Energy Institute have criticized Maugeri's assumptions about decline rates.


title: Peak oil

text: The original bell curve concept of Hubbel related to individual fields or areas of extraction. Hubbel identified a slower decline of depletion, which depends on the geological properties primarily, in comparison to a steeper increase in extraction volumes. The latter, which follows investment, sets in when an area had been discovered and extraction became economically viable, and a steep increase may also result from the implementation of specific infrastructure needed to "open up" an area, e.g. a pipeline. On a global level, the increase was more gradual than for individual fields, but that does not necessarily imply that the global decline will also be just as gradual.


title: Peak oil

text: In the first decade of the twenty-first century, primarily in the United States, widespread beliefs in the imminence of peak oil led to the formation of a large subculture of "peakists" who transformed their lives in response to their belief in and expectation of supply-driven (i.e. resource-constrained) peak oil. They met at national and regional conferences. They also discussed and planned for life after oil, long before this became a regular topic of discussion in regards to climate change.


title: Peak oil

text: Researchers estimate that at the peak of this subculture there were over 100,000 hard-core "peakists" in the United States. The popularity of this subculture started to diminish around 2013, as a dramatic peak did not arrive, and as "unconventional" fossil fuels (such as tar sands and natural gas via hydrofracking) seemed to pick up the slack in the context of declines in "conventional" petroleum.


title: Peak oil

text: The decline of the interest in peak oil predated empirical evidence that peak oil had not happened at the time forecast by Campbell.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The AMC Gremlin (also American Motors Gremlin) is a subcompact automobile introduced in 1970, manufactured and marketed in a single, two-door body style (1970–1978) by American Motors Corporation (AMC), as well as in Mexico (1974–1983) by AMC's Vehículos Automotores Mexicanos (VAM) subsidiary.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Using a shortened Hornet platform and bodywork with a pronounced kammback tail, the Gremlin was classified as an economy car and competed with the Chevrolet Vega and Ford Pinto, as well as imported cars including the Volkswagen Beetle and Toyota Corolla. The small domestic automaker marketed the Gremlin as "the first American-built import."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin reached a total production of 671,475 over a single generation. It was superseded by a restyled and revised variant, the AMC Spirit produced from 1979 through 1983. This was long after the retirement of the Ford Pinto that suffered from stories about exploding gas tanks, as well as the Chevrolet Vega with its rusting bodies and durability problems with its aluminum engine.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The idea for the Gremlin began in 1966 when design chief at American Motors, Dick Teague, and stylist Bob Nixon discussed the possibility of a shortened version of AMC's compact car. On an airline flight, Teague's solution, which he said he sketched on an air sickness bag, was to truncate the tail of a Javelin. Bob Nixon joined AMC as a 23-year-old and did the first formal design sketches in 1967 for the car that was to be the Gremlin.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Ford and General Motors were to launch new subcompact cars for 1971, but AMC did not have the financial resources to compete with an entirely new design. Teague's idea of using the pony car Javelin resulted in the AMX-GT concept, first shown at the New York International Auto Show in April 1968. This version did not go into production, but the AMX name was used from 1968 through 1970 on a shortened, two-seat sports car built from the Javelin.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Instead, Bob Nixon, AMC's future Chief of Design, designed the new subcompact based on the automaker's Hornet model, a compact car. The design reduced the wheelbase from and the overall length from , making the Gremlin two inches (50 mm) longer than the Volkswagen Beetle and shorter than the Ford Pinto and Chevrolet Vega.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Capitalizing on AMC's advantage as a small car producer, the Gremlin was introduced on April 1, 1970. The April 6, 1970, cover of "Newsweek" magazine featured a red Gremlin for its article, "Detroit Fights Back: The Gremlin". The car was available as a "base" two-passenger version with no rear seat and a fixed rear window, at a suggested retail price of $1,879, and as a four-seat hatchback with an opening rear window, at $1,959 (US$ in dollars).


title: AMC Gremlin

text: From the front of the car to the B-pillars, the Gremlin was essentially the same as the AMC Hornet. Although it was only fractionally longer than the contemporary Volkswagen Beetle, "Time" said the length of its hood over the front-mounted engine made "the difference seem considerably more", adding that the car "resembles a sawed-off station wagon, with a long, low hood and swept-up rear, and is faintly reminiscent of the original Studebaker Avanti." As with the Volkswagen, the Gremlin's styling set it apart from other cars. "Time" said, "like some other cars of less than standard size, the back seat is designed for small children only." The Gremlin's wider stance gave it "a stable, quiet and relatively comfortable ride—for the two front passengers”, for whom, by small-car standards, there was more than average interior width, seat room, and legroom. The six cubic feet of luggage space behind the back seat was less than in the rear-engined Volkswagen Beetle, but with the seat folded the cargo area tripled to .


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The upright design of the tail, which enlarged interior space, was aerodynamically efficient. Later, European and Japanese manufacturers similarly created different body styles on one compact car chassis by extending or curtailing the trunk (e.g. Volkswagen's Jetta and Golf models).


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Designed and named by Teague to look either "cute or controversial - depending on one's viewpoint ... for many, it seemed perfect for the free-thinking early 1970s." American Motors executives apparently felt confident enough to not worry that the Gremlin name might have negative connotations. "Time" magazine noted two definitions for gremlin: "Defined by Webster's as 'a small gnome held to be responsible for malfunction of equipment.' American Motors' definition: 'a pal to its friends and an ogre to its enemies.'" The car's cartoon-inspired mascot was marketed for product differentiation and was intended to be memorable to consumers. The Gremlin's hatchback design was also needed to make the car stand out in the competitive marketplace, and according to Teague: "Nobody would have paid it any attention if it had looked like one of the Big Three" automobiles.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: AMC promoted the Gremlin as "America's first subcompact". This description overlooks the Nash Metropolitan and the earlier Crosley. The Metropolitan—a subcompact-sized captive import, American-conceived and American-designed for the American market, and built in the UK with a British engine—has a claim to be "America's first subcompact."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: AMC marketed the Gremlin as "cute and different," a strategy successful in attracting more than 60 percent of purchasers under the age of 35.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin debuted in April 1970 with AMC's I6, a seven main bearing design which produced as standard equipment, with AMC's I6 - producing - as an option. AMC said the Gremlin offered "the best gas mileage of any production car made in America". According to the auto editors of "Consumer Guide", it had "an unusually long option list for the era" so owners could have luxury and conveniences typically found in more expensive cars, and these options "came with a much higher profit margin" for the automaker.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: As the first of the new domestic subcompact cars, "the Gremlin has been the most talked-about car since its introduction." Sales for the abbreviated model year were 25,300.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: "Popular Science" assigned its editor to the equivalent of one year of driving by conducting a cross-country road test of a brand new Gremlin, and reported after driving it "without a single problem is an enviable record" and that "we were all impressed with the quality of this vehicle." A nationwide survey based on owners driving their 1970 AMC Gremlins over conducted by "Popular Mechanics" concluded that the unique styling attracted many buyers, but economy topped their likes.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: For the 1971 model year the "X" appearance/equipment trim package was introduced as a $300 option on the 4-passenger model and "proved extremely popular." It included body side tape stripes, body color front fascia, slotted road wheels with D70x14 Goodyear Polyglas tires, blackout grille insert, bucket seats, and "X" decals.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The 2-passenger Gremlin version entered into its second and final season. The I6 engine that was optional for 1970 became standard, while a longer-stroke version became the option. Compression ratios dropped from 8.5:1 to 8:1 for 1971, resulting in (gross) from the and (gross) from the


title: AMC Gremlin

text: 1971 Gremlin prices increased slightly (up by $20 to $1,899 for the base model), and sales for this first full model year rose to 53,480.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: All Gremlins received a new body-colored front fascia treatment for 1972. Among many other changes was an available V8 engine. It was "the muscle car formula of stuffing a big motor in a small car." Engine ratings were downgraded to more accurate Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) net hp figures, bringing the engine to , the to and the 304 V8 to . Even with the lower engine output ratings across the industry, "the V8 Gremlin was a poor-man's Corvette, able to spin its rear tires at will and outrun some larger, more expensive pony cars" and it was "the only real performance car available under $2,200."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The base two-seater model was discontinued, having sold 3,017 units in 18 months. Gremlins also switched from non-synchronized 1st gear manual transmissions to full synchromesh, and the Borg-Warner-sourced automatic transmission was replaced by the Chrysler-designed TorqueFlite. Other minor technical upgrades improved the car's reliability and durability. The Gremlin X package continued to be popular, while optional features now included an AM/FM radio, fabric sunroof, tilt steering wheel, inside hood release, trailer towing package for up to with a Class 1 hitch, as well as manual or power-assisted front disk brakes.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: American Motors introduced the automobile industry's first 12-month or bumper-to-bumper warranty, called the "Buyer Protection Plan". Its foundation was an emphasis on quality and durability, improved production by reducing the number of models and increasing the level of standard equipment. The new warranty included an innovative promise to customers that AMC would repair anything wrong with the car (except for tires). Owners were provided with a toll-free number to the company, as well as a free loaner car if a warranty repair took overnight. Numerous production and product improvements would result in fewer warranty claims, better public relations, and greater customer satisfaction and loyalty.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: For the 1973 model year, AMC strengthened bumpers able to withstand a impact in the front and a impact in the rear, without any damage to the engine, lights, and safety equipment according to new mandates by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Optional was a Levi's interior trim package, which included spun nylon upholstery made to look like denim (fire safety regulations prohibited the use of real cotton denim). Details included removable map pockets, burnished copper denim rivets, and red Levi's logo tabs. Rear-seat legroom was increased. The X package received a new tape-striping pattern that kicked up over the Gremlin's rear-wheel flares.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Sales improved to 122,844 units, nearly 30% more than in 1972. A 1973 Gremlin purchased by "Consumer Reports" was top-rated in a group of six subcompact models tested for the June issue. That car had relatively few sample defects and proved reliable over a long-term test.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Arab Oil Embargo of October 1973 came just as the 1974 model year began. AMC improved the Gremlin's back seat. A deeper front fascia made the car appear longer. A larger front bumper was mounted on self-restoring telescoping gas and oil cylinders. Unlike most other designs, the Gremlin did not use a filler panel between the bumper and body. A stronger rear bumper was set lower—front and rear passenger car bumpers were now required by NHTSA to have uniform heights, take angle impacts, and sustain impacts with no damage. The rear fascia was modified slightly to blend with the design changes. The Gremlin X stripe pattern was given a "hockey stick" look for 1974: the stripes followed the window line as it tapered aft, and swept up now to include four diagonal lines on the wide C-pillar. A new typeface for nameplates was used by AMC for 1974, including on the Gremlin. With the car's 1974 model year extended into November to delay the need to install catalytic converters required by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2004 regulations starting with 1975 models, AMC sold 171,128 1974 Gremlins, an increase of nearly 40% over 1973 and 130% over 1971.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Changes for the 1975 model year Gremlins included standard electronic ignition developed by Prestolite. All U.S. market Gremlins featured catalytic converters that required the use of unleaded regular-grade fuel. "Unleaded Fuel Only" warnings were placed by the fuel filler and on the fuel gauge. Gremlins with I6 engines and manual transmissions gained a new option, the electrically operated overdrive from Laycock de Normanville. The 0.714:1 "J-type" unit was controlled by a pushbutton at the end of the turn signal stalk. When turned on, the unit engaged automatically at speeds above and dropped out at . An accelerator pedal kick-down switch provided faster passing when needed. Steel-belted radial tires were now standard on Gremlins with the X package.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: American Motors was promoting its economical models covered by the comprehensive "Buyer Protection Plan" warranty, as well as preparing for the launch of the Pacer The automaker was planning to spend half of the entire 1975 advertising budget on the new Pacer. Marketing for the Gremlin included tie-ins with a "Home Value Days" supplement designed to promote 18,500 hardware stores in "Popular Science" and "The Reader's Digest" as well as with Colgate-Palmolive's campaign using Willie Mays to "Help Young America" in "Jet" and "Ebony".


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The U.S. subcompacts were compared to the new, front-wheel-drive Volkswagen Rabbit that replaced the aging Beetle. "Popular Science" road tests showed the Gremlin to be the fastest and quietest of all, but had the lowest fuel efficiency with an average EPA rating of , compared to the Chevrolet Vega's , Ford Pinto's , and the Rabbit's . The Gremlin had an I6 engine and a three-speed transmission (in contrast to the I4 engines and four-speed transmissions in the other cars) and weighed over more than the VW Rabbit.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Struggling under stagflation and an , all the domestic subcompact cars' sales slumped compared to the industry's record-breaking 1973 model year. In total, AMC sold 56,011 Gremlins in the (albeit shortened) 1975 model year, a 67% drop. The success of the innovative Pacer launched in mid-February 1975 "severely cut" the sales of both the Gremlin and Hornet models.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Changes were greater for 1976. Oval headlight bezels replaced the previous circular items. The grille shape became a stretched hexagon and included in its insert two opposing loops stacked atop each other and housing new rounded parking/turn signal lights. Front fenders were taller, with a slight finned effect. A new "Custom" trim line debuted, featuring a striped interior trim called "Potomac", as well as a spare tire cover and other minor details. The A models were given another new striping scheme: the hockey stick-style stripe of the previous year adding a secondary extension that ran from the door handle straight back. The X package was now available only on Custom models. Due to flagging sales, the V8 engine option (now downgraded to ) was cancelled at midyear, after only 826 installations. (A total of 40,994 Gremlins were equipped with the V8 engine from 1972 until 1976.) A 4-speed manual transmission was made available at midyear. Sales tapered slightly to 52,941 - a decline of 5.5%. The 3-speed manual transmission also had the option of an electric overdrive when in third gear. Overdrive operation was by a push-button on the turn signal stalk. There may have been 600 to 700 of these built.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: 1977 changes included redesigned sheet metal for the first time in the Gremlin's now 8-year history: revised hood, shorter front fenders, new bumpers, taller glass tailgate, enlarged taillights, and rear license plate now covering the fuel filler. The front end was shortened by four inches (102 mm) with all-new sheet metal and a crosshatch grille insert. Parking lights reverted to rectangular, and headlights were recessed into square bezels with rounded corners. The new hood had a small "power bulge" at the front. The base model now included carpeting, as well as rocker panel and wheel lip moldings. The "Custom" model was available with a list price of $2,998. The X package returned as a $189 option, with a new striping pattern that ran straight back from the front fenders and crested upward over the rear wheels. Front disc brakes became standard.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: At the start of the model year, the Gremlin was available with either the standard or optional six-cylinder engines. Both had increased power from updated cylinder heads and two-barrel carburetors. In addition, AMC offered a carbureted four-cylinder engine: a Volkswagen/Audi inline-four, also used in fuel-injected form in the Porsche 924. It gave better fuel economy but less power than the standard six-cylinder engines, and reduced the Gremlin's weight by , allowing it to achieve an EPA rating of in the city, and on the highway. It was reserved for the Custom version of the Gremlin because the expense of acquiring the rights to the engine meant that AMC could not afford to make it standard equipment. Of 46,171 Gremlins built for 1977 (13% less than in 1976), 7,558 had the new 2.0 L engine.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: In its final year of 1978, the Gremlin received a number of changes, but customers on a tighter budget could still get a standard six-cylinder base model Gremlin for under US$3,400. A new "Custom" model featured either the four- or six-cylinder engine with a standard four-speed manual transmission and new vinyl bucket seats, wheel lip moldings, and other trim upgrades. Inside the Gremlin there was a revised instrument panel borrowed from the then-new 1978 Concord. The dashboard had high-level ventilation HVAC, radio switchgear within easier reach, and a flat, full-width top. The X's tape striping pattern was revised to match the 1978 Concord Sport package design, with the stripe at the lower body side and curving over the wheel lip.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: At mid-season, a GT package became available with a front spoiler and flared wheel openings as on the 1978 AMX. The GT added an aluminum overlay to the instrument panel, was powered by the I6 as standard, and had a unique striping scheme: a wide tape stripe, outlined by a narrow one, ran back from the front fenders and widened aft of the rear quarter windows. The package also included body-color fender flares and front air dam, as well as body-color bumpers, all of which combined to give the GT a modern, aggressive look. Fewer than 3,000 Gremlin GTs were built.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin's body shape had not changed appreciably in its nine years of production, and other more advanced subcompacts, lighter in weight, with more doors, better interiors, and front-wheel drive, had appeared on the market. Gremlin sales for the final year fell 52% to 22,104 units. By the time production ceased, a total of 671,475 Gremlins had been built.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The updated AMC Spirit replaced the Gremlin for the 1979 model year, basically "a Gremlin with conventional styling ... Lovable, sturdy cars are hard to kill."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin was faster than other subcompacts of the time. "Motor Trend" magazine recorded zero to 60 mph (0 to 97 km/h) in 12.6 seconds with the engine. The Ford Pinto and the VW Beetle were in the 18-second range. Fuel economy was to with the small six, compared with the 35-plus mpg economy of the VW Beetle.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Although front-heaviness was generally thought to compromise the handling, Tom McCahill wrote in "Mechanix Illustrated" that the Gremlin was "fast and easy", with a comparatively stiff ride because of the shortened rear springs. He ran a 232-engined Gremlin with automatic transmission from zero to 60 mph (0 to 97 km/h) in 11.9 seconds, saw on the Daytona Speedway straightaway, and summarized: "On a dollar for dollar basis, I rate the Gremlin the best American buy of the year".


title: AMC Gremlin

text: "Automobile Quarterly"s article "A Critical Look at the 1973 American Cars" summarized that the basic "Gremlin offers outstanding performance for an economy car and excellent fuel mileage."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: When "Popular Mechanics" magazine tested the car with the Audi four-cylinder engine introduced in 1977, they said its acceleration with a four-speed manual felt "amazingly strong", with 0-60 mph and quarter-mile times one second slower than with the 232 cubic inch straight-six (16 vs. 15, and 21 vs. 20 seconds respectively). The smaller engine produced EPA mileage of highway and city.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin's body was heavier and stronger than its domestic or imported rivals. The engines were also more powerful than the Gremlin's main domestic and imported competition. The powertrains were smoother and more reliable, and the car had fewer recalls. Its chief import rival was the Volkswagen Beetle, which did not handle as well and got similar gas mileage from about 40% of the Gremlin's horsepower. The same overall size as the Gremlin, it was packaged marginally better. Gremlin designer Richard Teague commented in "Motor Trend" that to compare the Beetle (whose basic design originated in the late 1930s) to the Gremlin in profile and body design was like "comparing a Ford GT40 to the Hindenburg".


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin holds the "distinction of offering one of the widest engine ranges of all time—from two liters to five liters."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Randall AMC dealership in Mesa, Arizona, received AMC's endorsement to build V8 powered Gremlins. The cars started out as 304 cubic inch V8 models from the factory and after Randall's modifications would run 13.90 seconds at 103- in the quarter mile, for $2,995 (US$ in dollars). Known as the Randall 401-XR (X for Gremlin X, R for Randall), a total of twenty cars were built for the street and one for the strip during 1972, 1973, and 1974. In 2012, the Randalls built a 22nd Continuation Plum 1974 Gremlin 401XR, originally intending to build a few, but built only one. "Car Craft" magazine tested one with some modifications and achieved in 12.22 seconds while still remaining a "totally streetable, daily-driver". In 1972, "Super Stock" magazine had a "Special Gremlin" issue. One of the many venues where Randall's 1972 Gremlin 401XR Super Stock drag car was at the 1972 Winter Nationals.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The AMC Gremlin saw action on numerous auto racing venues, including endurance, as well as oval and road racing. Due to their inherent inexpensiveness, strength, and simplicity to modify them for higher performance, many AMC Gremlins were used in drag racing.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: In the International Motor Sports Association (IMSA) RS series for compact sedans, Raleigh, North Carolina's "Team Highball", run by Amos Johnson and Bunny Johnson, was the AMC factory-backed team, with Amos Johnson, Whit Diggett, and later, Dennis Shaw driving. The torque of their 6-cylinder Gremlins gave a big advantage on the faster tracks like the Daytona International Speedway, where they were often more than a match for the BMW 2002, Alfa Romeo GTV, Datsun 510, Ford Pinto, Mercury Capri, and Opel Manta. Johnson was the series 1973 co-champion, while independent driver George Alderman took the 1974 title.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Starting in 1970, Wally Booth headed AMC's Pro Stock drag racing efforts. He and other drivers campaigned Gremlins painted in the hash red, white, and blue pattern that AMC had adopted as its corporate race livery. Dick Arons built the engines. The team "transformed the brand's staid grocery-getter reputation from the ground up into that of a genuine performance powerhouse". Wally Booth "was one of the Edelbrock crew's favorite racers".


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The rule changes for the 1972 Pro Stock season opened drag racing for smaller cars fitted with small-block engines and AMC was committed to fielding the Gremlin. The first car Booth built was a Gremlin body-in-white, but it was wrecked in a towing accident. In preparation for the 1973 racing season, Booth built a tube chassis Gremlin with the former Penske Racing fabricator, Ron Fournier, but switched to a Hornet body Pro Stock body after realizing that the Gremlin's aerodynamics were limiting top speed during testing at the Milan Dragway in Michigan.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The automaker's involvement in drag racing led to coordination in the development of the Gremlin 401XR. Grant and Mike Randall owners of Randall Rambler/AMC, built a 1972 Gremlin 401XR Drag Car, that they raced at the ARHA Winter Nationals 1972. The Randalls also wrote a high-Performance AMC Engine Tuning guide as well as the "Randall Rambler & Jeep Speed Bible."


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Three factory Pro-Stock 1972 Gremlin drag racers were campaigned around the nation. One was driven by Rich LaMont and sponsored by radio station 99 WIBG in Philadelphia, PA. This car has been restored with a AMC V8 with 4-speed manual transmission and it still runs the quarter-mile at around 8.75 seconds achieving over .


title: AMC Gremlin

text: At the 2006 World Power Wheelstanding Championships (not a race, but a "wheelie" contest), Brian Ambrosini's specially modified 1974 Gremlin took second place. The car gets all four of its wheels off the ground by its modified AMC V8 producing and achieving average quarter-mile e.t. in the low 8s with a trap speed of around .


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The body of the Gremlin was widely used by NASCAR paved and dirt modified stock car teams in the northeastern U.S. and elsewhere from the 1970s to the early 1990s. It was believed that Gremlin's long roof with its rear kick-up provided aerodynamic advantages over the more commonly used Pinto and Vega bodies. Lenny Podbielski was "a major player in late 1970s Speedbowl action" and the Gremlin-bodied machines he raced were "some of the prettiest cars of the era".


title: AMC Gremlin

text: American Motors built an assembly plant in Brampton, Ontario in 1961 for production of motor vehicles for the Canadian market as well as for the United States. The plant built and offered almost all AMC vehicles through the 1960s, allowing AMC to take advantage of the Canada–United States Automotive Products Agreement established between the two countries in 1965. By 1969 production at the Brampton Assembly had grown to such a size that AMC had the plant producing vehicles for the eastern half of the American continent while Kenosha produced vehicles for the western half of the continent. The plant ceased building the Ambassador after 1968 and imported the Javelin and later Matador from the United States but continued to build the Gremlin and Hornet throughout the 1970s.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: With Canada moving to the Metric system during the 1970s, late model Gremlins were built with their speedometers reading in kilometers per hour.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Vehiculos Automotores Mexicanos (VAM) manufactured Gremlins in Mexico under license and partial ownership (38% equity share) by AMC. Although the Gremlin was introduced to the U.S. and Canadian markets in 1970, VAM continued assembling its version of the Hornet still bearing the name Rambler American as its smallest, least expensive car until 1974. The fact that VAM already had three lines of products (the top limit permitted by legislation) from 1968 through 1973 made it impossible for the Gremlin to be offered. It was until the discontinuation of the Javelin line in 1973 that free space was available for Gremlin production, making 1974 its year of debut.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The 1974 Gremlin was the third VAM car not to bear the Rambler name since the 1968 Javelin and the 1972 Classic (Matador in the U.S.) models. Moreover, the Mexican market continued to use the Gremlin model name for VAM's version of the AMC Spirit sedan from 1979 through 1983, several years after the Gremlin nameplate was withdrawn in the U.S. market.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The VAM cars had trim, interiors, and model names that differed from the equivalent AMC-made models. All engines built by VAM were of AMC design, modified to deal with Mexico's lower octane gasoline and higher altitudes. The VAM Gremlin was the only car line of its time not to be available with VAM's version of AMC's I6, due to the economy market segment focus of the cars. This is exactly the opposite case as the AMC Gremlin, which was offered with the option of a 304 V8. The three-speed manual transmission with overdrive, the four-speed manual transmission, the V8 and Audi four-cylinder engines were never available. Trim levels and versions like the two-seater, the Levis Gremlin, the Gremlin Custom, and the Gremlin GT were also never available.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The introductory 1974 Gremlins became unique by incorporating the front clip of the 1974 U.S. AMC Hornet models. VAM never attempted to hide the relationship between the two models, which never harmed the sales or image of either model and was favored by the public. The launch of the Gremlin in Mexico also meant the resurrection of the I6 engine that was discontinued in 1972. The engine was practically the same as in its final year except for a slightly lower compression ratio (8.3:1 instead of 8.5:1). The advertised output was still the same at 145 gross horsepower at 4,400 revolutions per minute and was restricted to one-barrel carburetors. In contrast, since 1973 all VAM-based Hornets had the six as the standard and only engine. VAM Gremlins were basic economy cars with a full synchromesh manual 3-speed transmission, heavy-duty clutch, manual four-wheel drum brakes, manual steering, front sway bar, 3.31:1 rear gear ratio, rigid four-bladed cooling fan, collapsible steering column with anti-theft lock, base steering wheel, side marker and hazard lights, column-mounted shifters only, two-tone padded dashboard with silver-colored front surfaces, electric wipers and washers, monaural AM radio, cigarette lighter, front and rear ashtrays, locking glovebox, folding bench seats, two-point front seatbelts, flip-open rear side vents, roof rack, full carpeting with driver's side rubber mat, padded sun visors, sound-insulating cardboard-type headliner, dual coat hooks and round dome light. Factory options for 1974 included a column-mounted automatic transmission, power steering, power drum brakes, heater, parcel shelf, light group, remote-controlled driver and passenger side outside mirrors, sports steering wheel, bright molding package, wheel trim rings, and heavy-duty cooling. All VAM Gremlins used AMC's three-pod instrument cluster from the domestic-built Hornet with a blank in the third gauge position from the factory, which could be equipped with a universal tachometer or clock as dealership options. The introductory year production was 2,137.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The 1975 Gremlin models were upgraded, and along with the improvements to the larger car lines VAM took 9% of the Mexican market. VAM Gremlin interiors now featured individual folding front seats with low backs and new door panels, the "two-tone" dashboard with silver-painted front surfaces was replaced by a color-keyed unit, and a new fuel economy gauge was standard on the third space of the instrument cluster. Manual front disk brakes and electronic ignition were among the mechanical upgrades, while the compression ratio of the engine was dropped to 7.6:1. Both transmissions now came only with a floor-mounted shifter. VAM Gremlins ordered with automatic transmissions now included a heater and power steering at no charge. The exterior featured a variation of AMC's "hockey stick" side decal and a new design for headlight bezels, grille, and parking lights at the front end that AMC originally developed for its Hornet models. Production doubled to over 4,200 VAM Gremlins.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin X version was added in 1976 as a separate model rather than an optional package. The X models included VAM's larger I6, a 6000 RPM tachometer, sports steering wheel, 7.00X14 radial tires, Hurst linkage with T-shaped shifter for the manual transmissions, courtesy lights under the parcel shelf, heater, power steering, tinted windshield, bright molding package (drip rails, wheel arches, rocker panels), wheel trim rings, and an in-house two-color rally stripe that was unique to the Mexican market. The 1976 VAM Gremlin X also came with an interior featuring the "Navajo" pattern cloth upholstery that was optional on AMC's Pacer DL models built for the Canadian and U.S. markets. The base VAM Gremlin now also included luxurious seating with a center armrest that was never available in the U.S. models. Due to the debut of the Gremlin X and its sportier focus, the base Gremlin switched back to the standard column-mounted shifters for either transmission, but keeping the individual seat configuration. Both versions included revised gauges with a 160 km/h speedometer, new side panel designs, longer folding sun visors, and a styled round dome light lens. Sales for 1976 increased to over 6,000 units.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Starting with the 1977 models, all VAM Gremlins were powered by the I6 regardless of trim level. The exterior featured the shorter new front end clip and rear end treatment as did the U.S. models. The 1977 Gremlin X model included a new digital tachometer and three-point retractable seatbelts, as well as new in-house VAM designs for the seats. The sporty side decal was slightly revised. The seatbelts on the base Gremlin were also changed to three-point units, which were fixed and lacked retractable mechanisms. The option list was expanded with the possibility of ordering a factory air conditioning system for the first time in the VAM line, which was available only in the X model. The previously optional dealership-offered universal air conditioning system remained available for the base model. The VAM Gremlin X (along with the 1977-1979 American ECD, Concord DL four-door equivalent) would be the only VAM car with the 258 I6 engines to be available with a factory air conditioning system, as all other VAM models with it would be units. Around 6,800 VAM Gremlins were sold during 1977.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Only a few changes were made to the 1978 VAM Gremlin. The dashboard design was from the new U.S. market Concord being restricted to the unit with black surfaces only (no wood imitation or brushed aluminum versions). For the Gremlin X, there was a new VAM logo on the steering wheel horn button, smaller pointy volcano hubcaps with bright exposed lug nuts, and a new full-length bodyside decal incorporated the "Gremlin X" logo on the rear quarter panel. The sporty model also got the set of four bumper guards as standard equipment. The base model got another set of new hubcaps with exposed lug nuts, but with a flat top instead. Production fell just below 6,000 VAM Gremlins.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: VAM Gremlins used the updated body design of the U.S. and Canadian market AMC Spirit two-door sedan, as well as VAM versions of the Spirit Liftback, called the American GT and the Rally AMX. At the time, cars in Mexico took longer to be perceived as outdated than in the US and since the VAM Gremlin came to the public until 1974 instead of 1970, it was still relatively fresh among the Mexican buyers. Aside from this, the model kept a positive image throughout its whole run. It exceeded VAM's sales expectations in its first years. The company originally considered it a temporary low-volume model that would eventually be replaced by the upcoming Pacer model. In the end, the Gremlin stood and became VAM's all-time second best-selling line after the American. For these reasons VAM decided to keep the Gremlin name for the upcoming Spirit sedan model, being a testament to the very favorable image VAM cars in general held in Mexico. This was the third time a case like this happened within the company with Rebel and Matador models keeping the name Rambler Classic and the Hornet the Rambler American name.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: AMC exported a fully built Gremlin to its Australian partner, Australian Motor Industries (AMI) of Port Melbourne, Victoria in 1970 for evaluation purposes. (AMI assembled and marketed other AMC models since 1961.) The evaluation model was painted in AMC's "Big Bad Orange" and was converted from left-hand drive to right-hand drive by Sydney Toyota dealer Bill Buckle Pty Ltd. The car featured AMC's six-cylinder engine and a three-speed manual transmission. The car was presented at the 1970 Sydney Motor Show to gauge interest and test the market.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The car was featured on the front cover of the November 1970 issue of Australia's top motoring magazine, "Wheels" magazine. The magazine's review pointed to the likelihood that the "local content" requirements would force the price up to that of the high-priced, Australian-assembled Hornet, and probably price the car out of the market.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: For marketing purposes, it was branded as a "Rambler Gremlin" in keeping with the use of the Rambler marque for all AMC vehicles sold in Australia despite that Rambler as a brand was retired in the United States at the end of the 1969 model year. However, no Gremlin models were put into production in Australia.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: American Motors vehicles were exported to the United Kingdom during the 1960s and 1970s and sold by Rambler Motors (A.M.C.) Ltd in London with dealers in London, Yorks, Kent, and Worcester. While earlier models such as the Rambler Classic, Rebel, Ambassador, and Matador had been exported as completed factory right-hand-drive vehicles, only left-hand-drive Gremlins were exported to the United Kingdom. A U.K company called C.T. Wooler, in Andover, Hampshire had been in the business for a long time converting LHD cars to RHD and entered into an agreement with AMC to convert AMC vehicles. C.T Wooler converted Gremlins as well as AMC Pacers and Jeeps.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Between 1972 and 1974, Hurst Performance marketed "a highway safety vehicle" for emergency services, as well as a compact alternative to trucks for motorsport race tracks. The "Hurst Rescue System 1" was based on the AMC Gremlin and designed to quickly assist vehicle extrication of crash victims. The vehicle came with the "Hurst Rescue Tool", commonly known as "The Jaws of Life", winch, stretcher, as well as firefighting and first aid supplies. The vehicle also included push bumpers and a 25-gallon water tank. The price for this fully equipped rescue vehicle was between $11,000 to $13,000.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: A 1975 Gremlin was used as an experimental police vehicle by the Houston Police Department's Traffic Bureau, but this did not result in fleet orders.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Gremlin proved a popular testbed for experiments with alternative fuels. Many universities converted them to run on natural gas, hydrogen, and electric power.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: In 1972 University of California, Los Angeles researchers won a nationwide Urban Vehicle Design Competition when they modified a 1972 AMC Gremlin to run on hydrogen. The lessons learned are still useful today. The engine was a converted Ford V8 noted for its volumetric efficiency. Lacking sophisticated electronics and injection systems, the carburetor was a modified propane unit and the "thermos"-type hydrogen tank gave the Gremlin a range of . Tests indicated that the car would not only meet the scheduled 1976 vehicle United States emission standards, but also actually emit slightly cleaner air than it took in. As part of the 1972 Urban Vehicle Design Competition, UCLA engineering students also enlarged the side glass area above the rear wheels for improved visibility, designed a roll cage which projected through the Gremlin's roof to double as a roof rack, and designed 5 MPH bumpers with an environmentally-friendly energy-absorbing popcorn core, covered with a recycled-tire tread surface. In 1984, UCLA's first hydrogen-powered car was sold for one dollar to the William F. Harrah Automobile Museum in Reno, Nevada. In 2010, the car was available on an auction site.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Other experiments used AMC Gremlins. To evaluate non-petroleum fuel and measure mechanical wear under mostly short city driving, a 1970 Gremlin with AMC's engine operated successfully on methanol for ten years and .


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The broadest range of fuel tests were conducted by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) labs in Bartlesville, Oklahoma. Engineers estimated the performance and fuel economy of 1977 Gremlin Xs operating on ordinary gasoline, a variety of wide boiling range fuels (naphtha, kerosene, etc.), as well as two alcohols, ethanol and methanol.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: The Electric Fuel Propulsion Company (EFP) of Ferndale, Michigan, produced a number of electric cars including the AMC Gremlin based, two-passenger X-144. Introduced in 1973 it featured a direct current motor fueled by a 144-volt cobalt-lead storage batteries designed to reduce the formation of harmful gases during recharging, as well as a regular 12-volt battery to operate the cars lights, horn, and heater blower. Performance was claimed to be similar to a base gasoline Gremlin, including a top speed of , but with a calculated lower cost per mile for the X-144 over five years and of use.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Inventor "Cotton" Whatley of Wichita Falls, Texas, offered an unknown number of modified electric Gremlins for sale through various dealerships between 1973 and 1978. Whatley's Gremlin Electric had a top speed of and a maximum range of .


title: AMC Gremlin

text: Engineers at Coleman Products Corporation in Coleman, Wisconsin, created a non-drivable plexiglas Gremlin as a demonstrator of the placement and function of electrical wiring harnesses.


title: AMC Gremlin

text: In 1972 AMC developed a prototype "Gremlin Voyager" with a slide out rear panel called "Grem-Bin". The car was a production Gremlin with a proposed "shelf" design to make cargo loading easier.