title: 2014 Indian general election

text: "Bloomberg" highlighted India's slowing economy amidst a record high current account deficit and a falling rupee in summer 2013. It pointed out a lack of infrastructure investment and a government increasingly likely to give subsidies that the national finances cannot afford just before the election. Other points it mentioned were stagnant policymaking and an inefficient bureaucracy. The economy was the main issue in the campaign. The lack of a clear mandate as a result of the election could lead to an increase in the price of gold in the country. Modi also brought up the issue of farmer suicides that resulted from high debt and poor yield on their crops. Former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha criticised the incumbent Chidambaram in saying that he had a "habit that he will get a strong economy, and he will ruin it before he leaves... Shri Chidambaram will be remembered in history as a spoiler, as someone who specialises in sub-five per cent growth rate, for his hubris, arrogance".


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The price of onions, a staple in Indian cuisine, faced a dramatic increase. In the lead up to the election, consumer price inflation increased more than expected while, paradoxically, industrial production fell by more than expected, causing a dilemma amid slowing growth. The price of salt was also indicative of general food inflation.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: During the UPA-2 government, a number of scams came to public attention, deteriorating the image of the government among the common man. These scams included coal scam, 2G spectrum case, AgustaWestland Chopper scam and CWG scam.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Celebrity candidates from non-political spheres were nominated in the election. These included: Raj Babbar (INC), Bhaichung Bhutia (AITC), Biswajit Chatterjee (AITC), Sandhya Roy (AITC), Smriti Irani (BJP), Jaaved Jaaferi (AAP), Prakash Jha (JD(U)), Mohammad Kaif (INC), Kamaal Rashid Khan (SP), Vinod Khanna (BJP), Ravi Kishan (INC), Kirron Kher (BJP), Bappi Lahiri (BJP), Hema Malini (BJP), Mahesh Manjrekar (MNS), Bhagwant Mann (AAP), Nandan Nilekani (INC), Gul Panag (AAP), Jaya Prada (RLD), Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore (BJP), Paresh Rawal (BJP), Rakhi Sawant (RAP), Indranil Sen (AITC), Moon Moon Sen (AITC), Vijay Kumar Singh (BJP), Shatrughan Sinha (BJP), P. C. Sorcar Jr. (BJP), Babul Supriyo (BJP), Manoj Tiwari (BJP), Innocent Vincent (LDF-IND), Nagma (INC), Dev (AITC), and Siddhanta Mahapatra, (BJD).


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The constituents of the National Democratic Alliance and the seats they contested and won are shown at the right in the table:


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The NDA garnered an overwhelming number of 336 seats in this election. This has propelled it to form the government in the country.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was chosen to lead the Bharatiya Janata Party's campaign after a party conclave in Goa. This came amid controversy as L. K. Advani opposed the decision and resigned from his party posts, only to later rescind his resignation. Murli Manohar Joshi and Sushma Swaraj were part of the team for the campaign. Rajnath Singh, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani were the mentors for the BJP's campaign. A 12-member committee, led by Modi, was appointed at the Goa conclave which included M. Venkaiah Naidu, Nitin Gadkari, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh and Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Modi contested the election from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh and Vadodara in Gujarat. In Varanasi, the sizeable Muslim minority population was viewed by the media as an important voter target and the BJP's minority cell leader Salim Mohommad took part in campaigning. Advani wanted to contest from Bhopal but later agreed to contest again from his incumbent seat Gandhinagar. He also rejected a proposal to be appointed to the Rajya Sabha in favour of running in the election. Advani was given the Gandhinagar seat because Modi wanted him to contest from Gujarat, according to Rajnath Singh.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The BJP released its manifesto on 7 April 2014. The party promised to set up a Price Stabilization Fund and to evolve a single 'National Agriculture Market' to check price rise and go for e-Governance, policy-driven governance and simplification of the tax regime to prevent corruption. It wanted to encourage labour-intensive manufacturing, focus on traditional employment bases of agriculture, the upgrade of infrastructure and housing and self-employment opportunities for job creation. Harnessing satellite technology; setting up National Optical-Fibre Network up to the village level; Diamond Quadrilateral project – of High Speed Train network were among several other things that the party promised.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Himachal Pradesh BJP attacked the UPA's "one rank, one pension" scheme as an "election stunt," according to the convenor of the BJP's ex-servicemen cell, Brigadier (Retired) Lal Chand Jaswal. The move followed the BJP raising the issue in the previous years and Modi's announcement at an ex-servicemen's rally at Rewari on 15 September 2013 and at Sujanpur on 17 February. Modi also criticised the INC and Rahul Gandhi for giving a ticket to former Maharashtra Chief Minister Ashok Chavan despite his indictment in the Adarsh Housing Society scam in Mumbai. He further criticised Gandhi's comments about his governance of Gujarat at rally in Bijapur. At a rally in Gurgaon, Haryana, part of the wider National Capital Region, Modi said: "People gave ruling Congress 60 years, I just need 60 months to prove that the BJP is the best option for India" and alleged that the INC was protecting Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Sonia Gandhi, after he was said to have "sold farmers land" and made money. "Robert Vadra's empty bank account was credited with $8.30m (Rs 500 million) in just three months. BJP wants answers". He also criticised the INC's Nandan Nilekani as he had "squandered crores of rupees in giving a unique identity (Aadhaar) to millions of people, which even the Supreme Court questioned, as it did not address the security concerns".


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Amongst the social media, individuals came up with satirical takes on sports, movies (in Hindi and English) and songs, amongst other things, in support of the BJP campaign slogan that were premised on ""Aab ki baar, Modi sarkar"" ([This time, [we will have a] Modi government]). Modi was noted for focusing, in his rallies across the country, on the 23 million first-time come-of-age voters. By the last day of campaigning on 10 May, Narendra Modi had undertaken the largest mass outreach in India's electoral history by travelling about 300,000 km for 437 public meetings in 25 states and 1350 innovative 3D rallies according to the BJP.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: In regards to foreign relations of India, Modi in a rally in Arunachal Pradesh, a state which borders China with a history of border disputes, swore to protect the country and criticised "Chinese expansionism". He also highlighted the importance of diplomats discussing issues like trade facilitation and promoting Indian business abroad.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Lok Janshakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan announced on 30 January that the LJP, RJD and INC will jointly contest the election from Bihar's constituencies. He later announced on 27 February that he will instead join the NDA. LJP contested polls with the BJP and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) on 40 seats with 30 seats for BJP, three seats for RLSP and seven seats for LJP. LJP and RLSP won all the seats allotted to them with BJP winning 22 seats. The election was seen by many BJP leaders as a show of strength after fallout with JD(U). After the election results, Nitish Kumar was forced to resign from the post of Chief Minister after being marginalized to just 2 seats.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), led by Tamil film actor Vijayakanth joined the NDA on 26 February.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: On 10 April, while campaigning in Telangana, Jayaprakash Narayan of the Lok Satta Party stated that while his party had a few differences of opinion with the BJP manifesto, they had decided to support the NDA in the "national interest". On the other hand, Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan contested from the Malkajgiri. Malkajgiri had eligible voters in the election making it the largest parliamentary constituency of the country in terms of number of voters.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Swabhimani Paksha (SWP) a political party of Swabhimani Shetkari Saghtana (SSS) joined the Shiv Sena-BJP-Republican Party of India (A) alliance in February. The SSS, which represents the interests of farmers in western Maharashtra was offered two seats – Madha in Solapur, where NCP leader Sharad Pawar sits, and Hathkanangale, the seat of SSS leader Raju Shetti. Shetti also sought Baramati but this was rejected by the Shiv Sena and BJP, who decided to leave a seat each from their quotas of 22 and 26 to accommodate SSS. Rashtriya Samaj Paksha also joined the alliance in January. In addition to the aforementioned four parties that were contesting from Maharashtra, RSP was also in the alliance.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The constituents of the United Progressive Alliance and the seats they contested and won are shown at the right in the table:


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: This election turned out to be an unprecedented disaster for the UPA as they garnered the lowest number of seats in their history.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: In March, the INC, RJD and NCP announced that they would jointly contest in Bihar. The INC contested 12 seats, NCP fought on 1 seat and the RJD, being a regional party, would seek the rest of 27 seats.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Indian National Congress had announced, on the fourth anniversary of the second United Progressive Alliance government, that its campaign for the election would be led by incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, INC chairperson Sonia Gandhi and general secretary Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi was appointed to head a six-member committee to formulate and implement alliances, the party manifesto and general publicity for the election.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: In response to sagging opinion poll numbers for the general election, the INC sought to fast-track a decision on separating Telangana from Andhra Pradesh, create a coalition government with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Jharkhand, sought to take credit for the Food Security Bill and passing Land Acquisition Bill.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that he would not return to his role should the INC get a majority or plurality. Rahul Gandhi told "Dainik Bhaskar" that he was "ready to take charge" of any responsibility the party gave him and he added that: "My focus for India is a long term vision, where all Indians are treated with equality, respect and are given equal opportunities." At the party meeting it was decided not to name a prime ministerial candidate amid fears it would turn the election into a presidential one. This was criticised by the BJP. Gandhi would instead lead the party's campaign. He also called the election a turning point. Sonia Gandhi then said that the party will face upcoming challenges and the election with a "lot of determination;" she added that the election would be a battle for India. "Divisive forces are stretching social fabric to breaking point. Opposition's way is to spread disharmony. There's a face hidden behind the mask of compassion."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: In January, in an interview, Gandhi admitted that some Congress members may have been involved in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and further stated that Modi's government was responsible for pushing the 2002 riots while the Congress government in 1984 tried to stop the anti Sikh riots. Fellow UPA member, Praful Patel said that the 2002 matter should be put to rest. As Gandhi was reported to have sought an early declaration of the party's candidates, the INC was scheduled to hold its first meeting of the central election committee on 13 February to finalise all their candidates by the end of the month. Similarly, the screening committees for several unnamed part of the country had already occurred so as to shortlist the candidates. On 8 March, its list of 194 candidates was announced, including 35% of candidates that were below the age of 50 years. The INC was reported to be concerned by the possibility of a reduced mandate in Gandhi's seat of Amethi (Lok Sabha constituency) amidst an unusual challenge by his high-profile competitor, the BJP's Smriti Irani. It even led to his mother, Sonia, campaigning there for the first time in 10 years.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The INC dismissed the opinion polls pointing to a NDA plurality as misleading and partisan. In its manifesto the party promised "inclusive growth" and that it would initiate a raft of welfare schemes, including a right to healthcare for all and pensions for the aged and disabled. Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi's INC campaigning included scheduled stops in Odisha and, on 20 April, in Maharashtra prior to the third phase. Rahul Gandhi claimed in a rally in Chhattisgarh that Modi would "divide the nation into pieces, and make people fight against each other."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: During the election, former prime ministerial aide Sanjaya Baru published "The Accidental Prime Minister: The Making and Unmaking of Manmohan Singh" in which he criticised Singh as not being fully in charge of his government in having to compete with the dynastic INC leader, Sonia Gandhi, for influence within his own cabinet. Singh's office retorted in saying it is "smacks of fiction and coloured views of a former adviser." After Baru said "it is no secret that Sonia Gandhi was the super prime minister," Priyanka Vadra replied "I think Manmohan Singh ji is the super PM."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Minister for New and Renewable Energy and Jammu & Kashmir National Conference chairman Farooq Abdullah, controversially, told a rally in Srinagar that in regards to Modi becoming prime minister "if it happens then Kashmir will not remain a part of India. I say it publicly. Kashmiris will not accept a communal person". He added before going to a scheduled rally in Magam that "those who vote for Modi should drown themselves in sea".


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) was in alliance with the INC in the states of Bihar, Goa, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav said of the BJP's ruling chances that "Modi and Advani can never become the prime minister in their lifetime. Secular forces in this country would never allow the saffron outfit to come to power". In relation to the INC's Rahul Gandhi he said that Gandhi wants to bring change to the country; he added in relation to Digvijay Singh that he was a "good man".


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) contested polls in alliance with INC and RJD in Jharkhand. JMM and INC contested in four and ten seats each, respectively. JMM leader Shibu Soren will run from Dumka, while the other three party's seats could come from Rajmahal, Giridih and the purpose-built city of Jamshedpur.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Communist Party of India (Marxist) declared their campaign slogan as "Reject Congress, Defeat BJP." On 3 April, the party published its fourth list of candidates for a total of 94 candidates.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), formed in 2012, contested 432 seats and won 4 seats. The party's manifesto focused on anti-corruption measures. Earlier in 2013, the party had made an impressive electoral debut by winning the second highest number of seats in the Delhi Legislative Assembly elections. After forming a short-lived minority government in Delhi, AAP was seen as a major challenger to the other political parties. However, the party lost deposits on 413 seats, surpassing the record of Doordarshi Party, which had lost deposit on 321 seats in 1991. AAP's leader Arvind Kejriwal unsuccessfully contested against the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi from Varanasi. Its spokesperson Prashant Bhushan argued that AAP's national debut performance was better than that of the winning party BJP in its first national elections in 1984.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) opted not to join any alliance and contested all seats in the state of Tamil Nadu and the union territory of Puducherry on its own. Party General Secretary J. Jayalalithaa told a March rally that she would modernise the armed forces by enhancing their capabilities so that they were on par with the superpowers. In saying so, she criticised the UPA's governance, including its economic, diplomatic, and defence policies, adding that the modernization of the armed forces was hindered by the steady curtailment of its funding. The party won an unprecedented 37 out of the 40 parliamentary constituencies it contested and emerged as the third largest party in the 16th Lok Sabha of the Indian Parliament. It was a massive victory that no other regional political party had ever achieved in the history of general elections.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: On 21 March, the All India Forward Bloc released its first list of candidates that covered 38 seats in West Bengal, Maharashtra, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Jharkhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Odisha, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Delhi. According to the party's Secretary Debabrata Biswas the main objective of the party was "to strengthen and unite the Left, democratic and secular forces to achieve an alternative policy for reconstruction of the country." In West Bengal the party contested the election as part of the Left Front. To defend the two West Bengal seats that it won in 2009, the party decided to field incumbent MP Narahari Mahato in the Purulia seat and a new candidate in the Cooch Behar seat.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: On 19 March, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati declared that the party would contest the election on its own and fielded candidates in all 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati was confident that the BSP would seek a mandate to form a government with support of secular parties. The party secured the third highest vote share in the Country and yet did not win a single seat.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: At a press conference held on 10 March, General Secretary of the party Dipankar Bhattacharya said his party would field 85 candidates in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Punjab, Jharkhand and Puducherry.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) opted not to join an UPA pre-poll alliance and contested all seats in Tamil Nadu with its own regional alliance. Party leader Karunanidhi announced Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) with local parties like VCK, MMK, IUML and Puthiya Tamizhagam. DMK was not able to secure even a single seat throughout the country.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The media speculated that Modi still had a chance of gaining in Bihar at the expense of Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal. Whilst the BJP were in coalition with JD(U), Modi was not allowed to speak at rallies in the party by mutual understanding and was only allowed for special events such as a funeral or party conclave, even Modi's flood relief aid to Bihar was termed communal. Bihar was seen as test case for Modi's popularity if the BJP could increase its tally at the expense of the JD(U). There was also speculation that Lalu Prasad Yadav could make a relative comeback after the 2010 provincial election if he is not convicted over the fodder scam. It also suggested that this would be an eager race as it could determine if Kumar's decision to leave the NDA in June 2013 was prudent and if he has any national political scope left; while for Modi it would give crucial seats to the BJP and be able to attract potential allies as Bihar is largely based on caste politics. In January 2014, Kumar referred to Gandhi's stand against corruption as a "farce" after hearing of a meeting between Gandhi and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav despite Yadav being out on bail, after being convicted in the fodder scam. He termed their alliance as "natural" and stated that them coming together was no surprise.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) announced its first list of seven candidates. Six of them contested against candidates of Shiv Sena. The party, however, also supported Modi's prime ministerial candidature. The move read as an implicit acceptance of the BJP's Nitin Gadkari's call not to contest against the NDA and to support its own candidates.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Nav Bharat Democratic stepped into the political arena with 9 candidates spread across Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. The party was established by RK Misra.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav claimed that the Third Front government will be formed in the center with the help of his party. To counter the "Modi-effect" on other constituencies near Varanasi, Yadav decided to contest from Azamgarh and Mainpuri. The party decided not to field any candidates against the INC's Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi from Rai Bariely and Amethi, respectively, in response to the INC's decision not to field any candidates against Mulayam Singh Yadav and Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri and Kannauj, respectively.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: On 10 March, the Sikkim Democratic Front declared that its incumbent MP, Prem Das Rai, would run for re-election. The party also released a list of 32 candidates for the 2014 Sikkim Legislative Assembly election that will be held simultaneously with the election.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: All India Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee declared that the party would contest all 42 seats in West Bengal by itself, making this the first occurrence of the party contesting a general election in West Bengal without an alliance with either of the two largest parties, BJP and INC. Banerjee told a rally in Cooch Behar district, near the international border with Bangladesh, that she would take up the issue of the border enclaves upon ascertaining the views of the local people living in the adversely possessed areas. She further noted that she had opposed the central government's agreement in 2011 over the Teesta treaty of water-sharing between the two countries on the grounds of receding waters affecting drinking water availability.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress Party fielded candidates across Andhra Pradesh (Rayalaseema & Coastal Andhra) and some districts of Telangana. The party fielded several bureaucrats, businessmen and relatives of politicians for Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh (Rayalaseema & Coastal Andhra), including D. Kishore Rao, the former secretary of the Gujarat Human Rights Commission. In a statement in March, Reddy stated that he would ally himself with whoever would win the election.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The constituents of the Third Front and the seats they contested and won are shown at the right in the table:


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Fourteen political parties including the Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India, Revolutionary Socialist Party, All India Forward Bloc, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, Biju Janata Dal, Nationalist Congress Party, Janata Dal, Naga People's Front, Sikkim Democratic Front, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh participated in a convention of the parties not in alliance with the NDA nor UPA, which was held on 30 October 2013. On 5 February 11 parties announced that they would work as one bloc on a "common agenda" in parliament. These included the CPI(M), CPI, RSP, AIFB, Samajwadi Party, JD(U), AIADMK, AGP, JVM, JD(S) and BJD. However, there was speculation that the AGP and BJD were still in preparatory talks to re-join the NDA. A consensus on a prime ministerial candidate, however, was not achieved. But, they contested against each other in many contituencies.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Though CPI(M) has sought to build what it terms a "secular and democratic alternative" to the INC and BJP, general secretary Prakash Karat discarded the notion that these moves would result in a Third Front electoral alliance. He also suggested a possible Third Front would only emerge after the election.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Opinion polls generally showed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to be the front runner in the election with the emergence of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) as the single largest party.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The Election Commission of India banned the publication of all exit polls starting 48 hours before Phase 1 of the election until the end of Phase 9. This was intended to prevent exit polls from earlier phases affecting voter decisions in later phases. The ban ended after the close of Phase 9 voting at 6:30pm IST on 12 May 2014.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: During the course of the campaign, several controversies arose with parties being accused by one another and the Election Commission of India of violating Election Commission of India's Model Code of Conduct that is in force during the election.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: In the run-up to the election the media in India was criticised for its establishment ties between family owners and political parties. It caused self-censorship and editorial dismissals at certain media outlets.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: "India Today" temporarily suspended its CVoter opinion poll in late February after a News Express sting operation suggesting Polling Agencies like Ipsos and CVoter fudged the numbers to show BJP candidate Narendra Modi in the lead. However, with the final results matching the Modi landslide projected by the polls; the unsubstantiated charges were proved to be politically motivated. The 2014 elections confirmed the accuracy of the Election Polling in India.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: In total there were 1.4 million electronic voting machines in 930,000 voting centres. The voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) system which enables EVM to record each vote cast by generating the EVM slip, was introduced in 8 constituencies of Lucknow, Gandhinagar, Bangalore South, Chennai Central, Jadavpur, Raipur, Patna Sahib and Mizoram as a pilot project. Also, Braille ballot sheets for the blind were arranged at polling stations. The scale of the election required 1.1 million of civil servants and 5.5 million civilian employees to handle the election. It was the first election that had the "none of the above" option and allowed Non-Resident Indians to vote; though only in India. Security was increased during the election, particularly as the Communist Party of India (Maoist) (CPI (Maoist)) called for a boycott of the election. On 12 April, even though there was no voting this day, a vehicle in Chhattisgarh hit a CPI (Maoist) landmine resulting in the deaths of two bus drivers and five election officials, with four more injured, while travelling from Kutru to Bijapur in preparation for the fifth phase of voting. On the same day, within an hour, they also ambushed a vehicle resulting in the deaths of five paramilitary soldiers in the Darbha forest. The election was the longest and the most expensive general election in the history of the country, with the Election Commission of India estimating that the election did cost the exchequer 3500 crore (577 million), excluding the expenses incurred for security and by the individual political parties. Parties were expected to spend 30,500 crore (5 billion) in the election, according to the Centre for Media Studies. This was three times the amount spent in the previous election in 2009, and was then the world's second highest after the 7 billion spent on the 2012 US presidential election.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The election reportedly boosted the hospitality sector as, according to ASSOCHAM, tourist arrivals from the countries such as the US, UK, France, Singapore and the U.A.E. have gone up by 10–15 percent, while the movement of domestic tourists jumped by 62%.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Turnout was 75% in Assam and 84% in Tripura. Assam's INC Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said that "there is no Narendra Modi magic in Assam. The Congress has been winning every form of elections since


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: 2001 in Assam, and we are going to repeat the performance this time." Additionally, the borders with Bangladesh and Bhutan were closed for security reasons.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The turnouts were recorded at 82.5% in Nagaland, 71% in Arunachal Pradesh, 66% in Meghalaya and 70% in Manipur. Mizoram's voting was deferred to 11 April, where the turnout was 60%.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: About 110 million of people were eligible to vote for 91 seats. The turnout was 76% in Kerala, 64% in Delhi, 55.98% in Madhya Pradesh, 54.13% in Maharashtra, 65% in Uttar Pradesh and 66.29% in Jammu. Kerala and Chandigarh set new voter turnout records. A higher proportion of eligible electors voted in 2014 than in 2009.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Voter turnout set new records or were near record levels with 75% in Goa, 75% in Assam, 81.8% in Tripura and 80.97% in Sikkim (including the 2014 Sikkim Legislative Assembly election). West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee nearly cancelled the polls in her region after initially refusing to changes to the appointments of civil service departments, but was forced to constitutionally do so.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The largest voting day involved nearly 200 million eligible voters, 1,769 candidates for 121 seat. The voting turnout in Uttar Pradesh was 62%, West Bengal was 80%, over 70% in Odisha, 69% in Jammu and Kashmir, 54% in Madhya Pradesh and 62% in Jharkhand. Manipur had 74% and Maharashtra had a 61.7% turnout. In Karnataka, the average voting was up on 65% against 58% in the previous election, though urban voters were lower. In Chhattisgarh, the voter turnout was 63.44% compared to 57.6% in 2009, while Rajasthan recorded a 63.25% voter turnout, compared to 48.09% in 2009. In Bihar's seven constituencies, the turnout was 56%, compared to 39% in 2009. In one of six constituencies from Jammu and Kashmir, Udhampur, the turnout of 70% was significantly higher than the 2009 figure of 45%. Overall across India, the turnout on the day was over 65% and nearly all constituencies had a higher voter turnout than 2009.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The second largest voting day entailed 180 million eligible voters across 201,735 voting centres to elect 117 members of parliament from 2,098 candidates. Tamil Nadu set a new voter turnout record for Lok Sabha elections with 73%, while West Bengal experienced the highest voter turnout for the day at 82%. As compared to that, urban centres such as Mumbai and Chennai saw lower voter turnouts, but bettered their figures from previous years. Mumbai witnessed a 53% turnout, compared to 41% in 2009. The rural areas of Maharashtra saw over 60% turnout, Madhya Pradesh had 64%, Uttar Pradesh had over 60%, Chhattisgarh had about 66%, Assam had over 70%, Bihar has about 60%, Jharkhand had 63.4%, Rajasthan had about 60% and Pudhucherry had about 82%. One of six constituencies from Jammu and Kashmir, Anantnag, had the lowest turnout of 28%, after a boycott call by separatists, an attack on 22 April that killed three people, and with thousands of Kashmiri Pandits protesting in the afternoon that their names were missing from the electoral roll. As with previous phases, the overall voter turnout for the day was higher than 2009. In both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the turnout was about 9% higher, while Uttar Pradesh saw a 13% increase.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The 7th phase of voting entailed about 140 million eligible voters to elect 89 members of parliament from 1,295 candidates in 7 states and 2 Union Territories. Punjab set a new record in its voter turnout for general elections with 73%. Gujarat saw the highest jump in voter turnout for the day with 62% turnout compared to 48% turnout in 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The nine constituencies in West Bengal reported over 81% turnout. Uttar Pradesh witnessed 57% turnout compared to 48% in 2009, while Bihar saw 60% compared to 52% in 2009. One of six constituencies from Jammu and Kashmir, eligible to vote in this phase, had the lowest turnout for the day at 26% compared to 25.55% in 2009, after a boycott call by separatists. Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh, which will become India's new state on 2 June 2014, saw nearly 72% turnout to elect Lok Sabha members as well as its first state government. The aggregate turnout so far in the first 7 phases for 438 parliamentary seats has been 66.20%, significantly more than 57.41% figure in 2009 general elections.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The 8th phase saw voting for 64 Lok Sabha seats in 7 states with 897 candidates competing. Along with the general elections, polls were also held for the first Legislative Assembly of Andhra Pradesh excluding Telangana region. The voter turnout was high, with West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh each setting their respective general election voter turnout records. West Bengal recorded 81% polling compared to 78% for 2009. Andhra Pradesh recorded nearly 76% voter turnout. Himachal Pradesh saw about 66% turnout compared to 58% for 2009. Uttarakhand also set a new voter turnout record with 62% compared to 53% in 2009. The 2 constituencies of Jammu & Kashmir that voted witnessed a 49.9% turnout, while constituencies of Bihar saw 58% compared to 45% in 2009. Uttar Pradesh experienced a 55.5% turnout compared to 43.4% in 2009.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The 9th and last phase of voting entailed over 90 million eligible voters to elect 41 members of parliament from 606 candidates in 3 states. The 6 seats in Bihar saw a voter turnout of 58%, compared to 46% in 2009. Uttar Pradesh's 18 constituencies witnessed a 55.3% turnout, compared to 46.6% in 2009. In West Bengal, the 17 constituencies that voted, saw a turnout of about 80% compared to 82% in 2009.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The 2014 general elections, according to the Election Commission of India, recorded a cumulative total of 66.38% voter turnout, or 551.3 million out of 814 million eligible people casting their vote, according to provisional figures. The 2014 turnout surpassed India's previous highest voter turnout record of 64% in 1984 general elections. The voter turnout in 2009 general elections was 58.19%, while 2004 general elections saw a voter turnout of 56.98%. The 2014 general elections entailed 8,202 candidates competing for 543 seats.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Many locations required re-polling for various reasons. There was re-polling on 9 polling stations in Orissa on 25 April. The Election Commission ordered re-polls in 52 polling booths (30 in Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, 11 in Uttar Pradesh and 11 in West Bengal) because of complaints of booth capturing, rigging, violence or as demanded by the locals. The re-poll was held on 13 May. In Uttar Pradesh, re-polls were held in 3 polling booths in Muzaffarnagar, 7 in Ferozabad and 1 in Badaun. Re-polling also occurred on 14 May in Arunachal Pradesh and on 15 May in the states of Nagaland and Haryana. The Left parties and BJP alleged mass rigging and booth capturing by Trinamool Congress at thousands of polling stations in West Bengal. AAP demanded re-polling in 108 booths.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Congress demanded re-polling at 1,344 polling stations in Nagaland. Re-polling was done in two polling stations in Tamil Nadu on 10 May and in 3 polling stations in Andhra Pradesh(Rayalaseema & Coastal Andhra) on 13 May. In Bihar, there was re-polling on 2 polling stations of Sitamarhi on 11 May and 3 polling stations in Muzaffarnagar went to re-polling on 13 May. On 15 May, there was re-polling in one booth in Tamil Nadu, and at 5 booths in West Bengal, Bihar, Nagaland. It was reported that not a single voter turned up for a re-poll at 5 polling stations in Nagaland on 15 May. On 12 May, the Bombay High court declined to order supplementary polling for voters in Maharashtra whose names were missing from the electoral rolls. There were speculated to be as many as 100,000 voters missing from the electoral roll in Pune and as many as 200,000 missing from electoral roll in Mumbai.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The BJP secured 39% support from first time voters, while Congress received 19% of the first time votes. The NDA won 39 of 74 seats where Muslim voters make up between 21 and 95% of the total electorate. The BJP won all 16 seats in Uttar Pradesh. It also secured 5 out of 9 such seats in Bihar. Analyst Saeed Naqvi believes that Amit Shah managed to convince Dalits and OBC voters to elect the BJP as "Muslim appeasers in an atmosphere of perpetual communal tension".


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The BJP won all 26 seats in Gujarat, marking the first time a single party won all seats in the state. The previous record was held by the Congress which won 25 of the 26 seats in the 1984 general election. The assembly segment-wise result of Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh shows that the BJP was number one in 328 seats, while the ruling SP led in just 42. Congress was ahead in 15, BSP 9 and Apna Dal 9. In 2012, SP had formed government by winning 224 assembly seats. BSP had won 80, BJP 47, Congress 28 and Apna Dal one.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Similarly, in Maharashtra BJP-Shiva Sena alliance has got a lead in 246 assembly segments out of the total 288. By securing seven of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, BJP remained ahead on 52 assembly segments in the state. Its ally HJC could not win any of the Lok Sabha seats it contested, but its candidates remained ahead in seven assembly segments. BJP contested 8 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, leaving two constituencies for its alliance partner HJC. BJP candidates remained ahead in all 27 assembly segments of Ambala, Karnal and Faridabad parliamentary constituencies. BJP won all seats except Rohtak where its candidate Om Prakash Dhankar lost to Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda's son and sitting MP Deepender Hooda.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: About one-third of all winners had at least one pending criminal case against them, with some having serious criminal cases. A candidate with criminal case(s) had 13% chance of winning the election, whereas a candidate with a clean record had only 5% chance of winning. (Here, chance of winning = .)


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Out of the 542 members analysed, 443 (82%) have total assets of or more. In the 15th Lok Sabha, out of 521 members analysed, 300 (58%) members had assets of or more. The average assets per member are (in 2009, this figure was ).


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The country's economic indicators were performing well in advance of the result in expectation of a BJP win, on the perception that Modi is business-friendly. The benchmark BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty indices hit record highs and the Indian rupee strengthened following months of poor performance. On the result day, as early vote counts gave the BJP a majority lead, the Sensex reached a record high of 25,375.63 points. It ended the day at a new closing high of 24,121.74. The Nifty reached a record high of 7,563.50, before ending the day at a new closing high of 7,203. The Indian rupee rose to an 11-month high of 58.62 against the US dollar and closed at 58.79. Deutsche Bank revised its December 2014 target for the Sensex to 28,000, and Macquarie revised its 12-month target for the Nifty to 8,400 from 7,200. Edelweiss set its December 2014 targets for the Sensex and Nifty at 29,000 and 9,000 respectively.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: "India Times" suggested that the election was watched in Pakistan with Modi being the less popular candidate than AAP's Kejriwal. Comparisons were made between the latter and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's Imran Khan. Analysts suggested a high turnout would favour the BJP as it indicates an increase in participation of urban voters who are the party's traditional vote bank. Others have suggested however, that this could indicate an increase in voting amongst the 150 million Muslims that generally support the INC. Varghese K George, the political editor of "The Hindu" said that both readings rely on too many assumptions but that the only reading so far was the BJP was "doing well [and] Modi is managing to make some connection with voters and the Congress is doing pretty badly."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: When it became clear that the BJP would win the election, Narendra Modi tweeted, "India has won! "Bharat ki Vijay". "Ache din ane wale hai" (good days are ahead)." This tweet instantly became India's most retweeted Twitter post. Manmohan Singh congratulated Modi by telephone. Congress President Sonia Gandhi accepted the defeat and congratulated the new government saying, "I congratulate the next government. I take full responsibility for the loss of Congress." Rahul Gandhi also did the same saying, "The new government has been given a mandate by the people. As Congress Vice President I hold myself responsible. The Congress party has done badly."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Rajnikanth congratulated Narendra Modi on Twitter for his "historic win". The actor also congratulated Jayalalithaa for her party's performance in the election. Tamil actor Dhanush also tweeted congratulations to Modi. Several Bollywood celebrities including Subhash Ghai, Vishal Dadalani, Lata Mangeshkar, Ranvir Shorey, Vivek Oberoi, Baba Sehgal, Shekhar Kapur, Arshad Warsi, Preity Zinta, Arjun Rampal, Farhan Akhtar, Karan Johar, Sangeeth Sivan, Kabir Bedi, Anupam Kher, Madhur Bhandarkar, Atul Kasbekar and Pritish Nandy tweeted congratulations to Modi and the BJP for their victory.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Narendra Modi responded to each tweet from world leaders thanking them for their support. The media reported the order in which Modi responded to the tweets, and noted that Barack Obama was the last to receive a reply from him. "The New York Times" observed that "the order in which he thanked them and one notable omission, later rectified, was more interesting than the content of the tweets themselves." The paper further stated, "The silence underscored what will be uncomfortable diplomatic theater in the weeks and months to come. The United States refused to issue Mr. Modi a visa in 2005 as a response to his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. As Mr. Modi's star rose in the past year, American leaders reached out, but a thaw on Mr. Modi's side has been almost imperceptible." State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki said, "I think our relationship between the United States and India is so strong and enduring we won't worry about the Twitter rank order". John Kerry reiterated the United States' willingness to work with the new government as well as the importance of India-US relations on 20 May. He also added that he was looking forward to returning to India soon and "echo President Obama's invitation to Prime Minister Modi to visit the United States at the earliest opportunity." "The Times of India" noted that the first leader to receive a tweet from Modi was David Cameron. The United Kingdom was among the first countries to end a US-led diplomatic boycott of Modi. "Mint" stated that Modi's "more expansive responses" were to the leaders of Japan and Russia. According to former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh, "It is natural that Modi feels affinity with some leaders who are strong leaders, proudly nationalistic, trying to fix the economy with firm measures."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Prior to the announcement of the result, "The Washington Post" highlighted "...2014 will be the biggest year in the history of democracy, with more people than ever before going to the polls to decide their own fate...this really looks to be one of the most fascinating political events this year, and not just because of its scale...It's a fascinating moment in democracy, and one that shouldn't be ignored". "The New York Times" added that "the sheer size of the electorate makes this election the largest ever in the world and an inspiring celebration of universal adult suffrage," but also wrote "lurking behind the feel-good spectacle is the reality that India's elections are awash in illegal cash, serious violence and dirty tricks." "Bloomberg Businessweek" wrote of the election that the "process is awesome in its complexity, and the campaigns have given rise to robust debate...But here's something else not to miss: It’s all pretty damn colorful." It highlighted five reasons that make the election interesting: Kejriwal's effect, Modi's wife; exit polls are barred but betting on the future prime minister was not and Modi was in the lead; "vote buying" through cash, alcohol or other means; and 3D campaigning. It also predicted better relations with Japan at the expense of relations with China under Modi, and asked whether a redefinition of India's nuclear weapons program would result from the elections.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: An editorial in the "China Daily", the Chinese government's official English-language newspaper, compared Modi's "preoccupation with development" with China's "own experiences and development philosophy", and argued that this had "inspired unprecedented optimism here over our South Asian neighbour's growth potential". The paper also argued that "western rhetoric" which stated that both countries were "destined to stand against each other" had been proven wrong by the fact that India and China had "by and large, managed their differences well over the decades". It also welcomed Modi's invitation to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his swearing-in ceremony.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The 14th Dalai Lama sent a letter congratulating Modi for the BJP's "decisive victory". The Dalai Lama expressed hope that just as Modi had brought development and prosperity to Gujarat, India would continue to "flourish and prosper" under his leadership.


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: The American Jewish Committee (AJC) congratulated Narendra Modi, and expressed hope that his leadership would further strengthen India's relations with the US and Israel. Director of AJC's Asia Pacific Institute (API) Shira Loewenberg stated, "We look forward to working with Modi and the new government to further strengthen and deepen India's extensive relations with the United States and Israel. BJP has long been a friend to Israel and the Jewish people."


title: 2014 Indian general election

text: Manmohan Singh tendered his resignation to President Pranab Mukherjee on 17 May. He continued as caretaker Prime Minister, at the request of the President, until 26 May 2014, when Narendra Modi and his cabinet were sworn to office.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models and their associated estimation procedures (such as the "variation" among and between groups) used to analyze the differences among means. ANOVA was developed by the statistician Ronald Fisher. ANOVA is based on the law of total variance, where the observed variance in a particular variable is partitioned into components attributable to different sources of variation. In its simplest form, ANOVA provides a statistical test of whether two or more population means are equal, and therefore generalizes the "t"-test beyond two means. In other words, the ANOVA is used to test the difference between two or more means.


title: Analysis of variance

text: While the analysis of variance reached fruition in the 20th century, antecedents extend centuries into the past according to Stigler. These include hypothesis testing, the partitioning of sums of squares, experimental techniques and the additive model. Laplace was performing hypothesis testing in the 1770s. Around 1800, Laplace and Gauss developed the least-squares method for combining observations, which improved upon methods then used in astronomy and geodesy. It also initiated much study of the contributions to sums of squares. Laplace knew how to estimate a variance from a residual (rather than a total) sum of squares. By 1827, Laplace was using least squares methods to address ANOVA problems regarding measurements of atmospheric tides. Before 1800, astronomers had isolated observational errors resulting


title: Analysis of variance

text: from reaction times (the "personal equation") and had developed methods of reducing the errors. The experimental methods used in the study of the personal equation were later accepted by the emerging field of psychology which developed strong (full factorial) experimental methods to which randomization and blinding were soon added. An eloquent non-mathematical explanation of the additive effects model was available in 1885.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Ronald Fisher introduced the term variance and proposed its formal analysis in a 1918 article "The Correlation Between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance". His first application of the analysis of variance was published in 1921. Analysis of variance became widely known after being included in Fisher's 1925 book "Statistical Methods for Research Workers".


title: Analysis of variance

text: Randomization models were developed by several researchers. The first was published in Polish by Jerzy Neyman in 1923.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The analysis of variance can be used to describe otherwise complex relations among variables. A dog show provides an example. A dog show is not a random sampling of the breed: it is typically limited to dogs that are adult, pure-bred, and exemplary. A histogram of dog weights from a show might plausibly be rather complex, like the yellow-orange distribution shown in the illustrations. Suppose we wanted to predict the weight of a dog based on a certain set of characteristics of each dog. One way to do that is to "explain" the distribution of weights by dividing the dog population into groups based on those characteristics. A successful grouping will split dogs such that (a) each group has a low variance of dog weights (meaning the group is relatively homogeneous) and (b) the mean of each group is distinct (if two groups have the same mean, then it isn't reasonable to conclude that the groups are, in fact, separate in any meaningful way).


title: Analysis of variance

text: In the illustrations to the right, groups are identified as "X", "X", etc. In the first illustration, the dogs are divided according to the product (interaction) of two binary groupings: young vs old, and short-haired vs long-haired (e.g., group 1 is young, short-haired dogs, group 2 is young, long-haired dogs, etc.). Since the distributions of dog weight within each of the groups (shown in blue) has a relatively large variance, and since the means are very similar across groups, grouping dogs by these characteristics does not produce an effective way to explain the variation in dog weights: knowing which group a dog is in doesn't allow us to predict its weight much better than simply knowing the dog is in a dog show. Thus, this grouping fails to explain the variation in the overall distribution (yellow-orange).


title: Analysis of variance

text: An attempt to explain the weight distribution by grouping dogs as "pet vs working breed" and "less athletic vs more athletic" would probably be somewhat more successful (fair fit). The heaviest show dogs are likely to be big, strong, working breeds, while breeds kept as pets tend to be smaller and thus lighter. As shown by the second illustration, the distributions have variances that are considerably smaller than in the first case, and the means are more distinguishable. However, the significant overlap of distributions, for example, means that we cannot distinguish "X" and "X" reliably. Grouping dogs according to a coin flip might produce distributions that look similar.


title: Analysis of variance

text: An attempt to explain weight by breed is likely to produce a very good fit. All Chihuahuas are light and all St Bernards are heavy. The difference in weights between Setters and Pointers does not justify separate breeds. The analysis of variance provides the formal tools to justify these intuitive judgments. A common use of the method is the analysis of experimental data or the development of models. The method has some advantages over correlation: not all of the data must be numeric and one result of the method is a judgment in the confidence in an explanatory relationship.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The fixed-effects model (class I) of analysis of variance applies to situations in which the experimenter applies one or more treatments to the subjects of the experiment to see whether the response variable values change. This allows the experimenter to estimate the ranges of response variable values that the treatment would generate in the population as a whole.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Random-effects model (class II) is used when the treatments are not fixed. This occurs when the various factor levels are sampled from a larger population. Because the levels themselves are random variables, some assumptions and the method of contrasting the treatments (a multi-variable generalization of simple differences) differ from the fixed-effects model.


title: Analysis of variance

text: A mixed-effects model (class III) contains experimental factors of both fixed and random-effects types, with appropriately different interpretations and analysis for the two types.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Teaching experiments could be performed by a college or university department to find a good introductory textbook, with each text considered a treatment. The fixed-effects model would compare a list of candidate texts. The random-effects model would determine whether important differences exist among a list of randomly selected texts. The mixed-effects model would compare the (fixed) incumbent texts to randomly selected alternatives.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Defining fixed and random effects has proven elusive, with competing definitions arguably leading toward a linguistic quagmire.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The analysis of variance has been studied from several approaches, the most common of which uses a linear model that relates the response to the treatments and blocks. Note that the model is linear in parameters but may be nonlinear across factor levels. Interpretation is easy when data is balanced across factors but much deeper understanding is needed for unbalanced data.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The analysis of variance can be presented in terms of a linear model, which makes the following assumptions about the probability distribution of the responses:


title: Analysis of variance

text: The separate assumptions of the textbook model imply that the errors are independently, identically, and normally distributed for fixed effects models, that is, that the errors (formula_1) are independent and


title: Analysis of variance

text: In a randomized controlled experiment, the treatments are randomly assigned to experimental units, following the experimental protocol. This randomization is objective and declared before the experiment is carried out. The objective random-assignment is used to test the significance of the null hypothesis, following the ideas of C. S. Peirce and Ronald Fisher. This design-based analysis was discussed and developed by Francis J. Anscombe at Rothamsted Experimental Station and by Oscar Kempthorne at Iowa State University. Kempthorne and his students make an assumption of "unit treatment additivity", which is discussed in the books of Kempthorne and David R. Cox.


title: Analysis of variance

text: In its simplest form, the assumption of unit-treatment additivity states that the observed response formula_3 from experimental unit formula_4 when receiving treatment formula_5 can be written as the sum of the unit's response formula_6 and the treatment-effect formula_7, that is


title: Analysis of variance

text: The assumption of unit-treatment additivity implies that, for every treatment formula_5, the formula_5th treatment has exactly the same effect formula_11 on every experiment unit.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The assumption of unit treatment additivity usually cannot be directly falsified, according to Cox and Kempthorne. However, many "consequences" of treatment-unit additivity can be falsified. For a randomized experiment, the assumption of unit-treatment additivity "implies" that the variance is constant for all treatments. Therefore, by contraposition, a necessary condition for unit-treatment additivity is that the variance is constant.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The use of unit treatment additivity and randomization is similar to the design-based inference that is standard in finite-population survey sampling.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Kempthorne uses the randomization-distribution and the assumption of "unit treatment additivity" to produce a "derived linear model", very similar to the textbook model discussed previously. The test statistics of this derived linear model are closely approximated by the test statistics of an appropriate normal linear model, according to approximation theorems and simulation studies. However, there are differences. For example, the randomization-based analysis results in a small but (strictly) negative correlation between the observations. In the randomization-based analysis, there is "no assumption" of a "normal" distribution and certainly "no assumption" of "independence". On the contrary, "the observations are dependent"!


title: Analysis of variance

text: The randomization-based analysis has the disadvantage that its exposition involves tedious algebra and extensive time. Since the randomization-based analysis is complicated and is closely approximated by the approach using a normal linear model, most teachers emphasize the normal linear model approach. Few statisticians object to model-based analysis of balanced randomized experiments.


title: Analysis of variance

text: However, when applied to data from non-randomized experiments or observational studies, model-based analysis lacks the warrant of randomization. For observational data, the derivation of confidence intervals must use "subjective" models, as emphasized by Ronald Fisher and his followers. In practice, the estimates of treatment-effects from observational studies generally are often inconsistent. In practice, "statistical models" and observational data are useful for suggesting hypotheses that should be treated very cautiously by the public.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The normal-model based ANOVA analysis assumes the independence, normality, and homogeneity of variances of the residuals. The randomization-based analysis assumes only the homogeneity of the variances of the residuals (as a consequence of unit-treatment additivity) and uses the randomization procedure of the experiment. Both these analyses require homoscedasticity, as an assumption for the normal-model analysis and as a consequence of randomization and additivity for the randomization-based analysis.


title: Analysis of variance

text: However, studies of processes that change variances rather than means (called dispersion effects) have been successfully conducted using ANOVA. There are "no" necessary assumptions for ANOVA in its full generality, but the "F"-test used for ANOVA hypothesis testing has assumptions and practical


title: Analysis of variance

text: Problems which do not satisfy the assumptions of ANOVA can often be transformed to satisfy the assumptions.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The property of unit-treatment additivity is not invariant under a "change of scale", so statisticians often use transformations to achieve unit-treatment additivity. If the response variable is expected to follow a parametric family of probability distributions, then the statistician may specify (in the protocol for the experiment or observational study) that the responses be transformed to stabilize the variance. Also, a statistician may specify that logarithmic transforms be applied to the responses, which are believed to follow a multiplicative model.


title: Analysis of variance

text: According to Cauchy's functional equation theorem, the logarithm is the only continuous transformation that transforms real multiplication to addition.


title: Analysis of variance

text: ANOVA is used in the analysis of comparative experiments, those in which only the difference in outcomes is of interest. The statistical significance of the experiment is determined by a ratio of two variances. This ratio is independent of several possible alterations to the experimental observations: Adding a constant to all observations does not alter significance. Multiplying all observations by a constant does not alter significance. So ANOVA statistical significance result is independent of constant bias and scaling errors as well as the units used in expressing observations. In the era of mechanical calculation it was common to subtract a constant from all observations (when equivalent to dropping leading digits) to simplify data entry. This is an example of data coding.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The calculations of ANOVA can be characterized as computing a number of means and variances, dividing two variances and comparing the ratio to a handbook value to determine statistical significance. Calculating a treatment effect is then trivial: "the effect of any treatment is estimated by taking the difference between the mean of the observations which receive the treatment and the general mean".


title: Analysis of variance

text: ANOVA uses traditional standardized terminology. The definitional equation of sample variance is formula_12, where the divisor is called the degrees of freedom (DF), the summation is called


title: Analysis of variance

text: the sum of squares (SS), the result is called the mean square (MS) and the squared terms are deviations from the sample mean. ANOVA estimates 3 sample variances: a total variance based on all the observation deviations from the grand mean, an error variance based on all the observation deviations from their appropriate treatment means, and a treatment variance. The treatment variance is based on the deviations of treatment means from the grand mean, the result being multiplied by the number of observations in each treatment to account for the difference between the variance of observations and the variance of means.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The fundamental technique is a partitioning of the total sum of squares "SS" into components related to the effects used in the model. For example, the model for a simplified ANOVA with one type of treatment at different levels.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The number of degrees of freedom "DF" can be partitioned in a similar way: one of these components (that for error) specifies a chi-squared distribution which describes the associated sum of squares, while the same is true for "treatments" if there is no treatment effect.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The "F"-test is used for comparing the factors of the total deviation. For example, in one-way, or single-factor ANOVA, statistical significance is tested for by comparing the F test statistic


title: Analysis of variance

text: where "MS" is mean square, formula_17 is the number of treatments and formula_18 is the total number of cases


title: Analysis of variance

text: to the "F"-distribution with formula_19, formula_20 degrees of freedom. Using the "F"-distribution is a natural candidate because the test statistic is the ratio of two scaled sums of squares each of which follows a scaled chi-squared distribution.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The expected value of F is formula_21 (where formula_22 is the treatment sample size) which is 1 for no treatment effect. As values of F increase above 1, the evidence is increasingly inconsistent with the null hypothesis. Two apparent experimental methods of increasing F are increasing the sample size and reducing the error variance by tight experimental controls.


title: Analysis of variance

text: There are two methods of concluding the ANOVA hypothesis test, both of which produce the same result:


title: Analysis of variance

text: The ANOVA "F"-test is known to be nearly optimal in the sense of minimizing false negative errors for a fixed rate of false positive errors (i.e. maximizing power for a fixed significance level). For example, to test the hypothesis that various medical treatments have exactly the same effect, the "F"-test's "p"-values closely approximate the permutation test's p-values: The approximation is particularly close when the design is balanced. Such permutation tests characterize tests with maximum power against all alternative hypotheses, as observed by Rosenbaum. The ANOVA "F"-test (of the null-hypothesis that all treatments have exactly the same effect) is recommended as a practical test, because of its robustness against many alternative distributions.


title: Analysis of variance

text: ANOVA consists of separable parts; partitioning sources of variance and hypothesis testing can be used individually. ANOVA is used to support other statistical tools. Regression is first used to fit more complex models to data, then ANOVA is used to compare models with the objective of selecting simple(r) models that adequately describe the data. "Such models could be fit without any reference to ANOVA, but ANOVA tools could then be used to make some sense of the fitted models, and to test hypotheses about batches of coefficients." "[W]e think of the analysis of variance as a way of understanding and structuring multilevel models—not as an alternative to regression but as a tool for summarizing complex high-dimensional inferences ..."


title: Analysis of variance

text: The simplest experiment suitable for ANOVA analysis is the completely randomized experiment with a single factor. More complex experiments with a single factor involve constraints on randomization and include completely randomized blocks and Latin squares (and variants: Graeco-Latin squares, etc.). The more complex experiments share many of the complexities of multiple factors. A relatively complete discussion of the analysis (models, data summaries, ANOVA table) of the completely randomized experiment is available.


title: Analysis of variance

text: There are some alternatives to conventional one-way analysis of variance, e.g.: Welch's heteroscedastic F test, Welch's heteroscedastic F test with trimmed means and Winsorized variances, Brown-Forsythe test, Alexander-Govern test, James second order test and Kruskal-Wallis test, available in onewaytests R


title: Analysis of variance

text: That is, we envision an additive model that says every data point can be represented by summing three quantities: the true mean, averaged over all factor levels being investigated, plus an incremental component associated with the particular column (factor level), plus a final component associated with everything else affecting that specific data value.


title: Analysis of variance

text: ANOVA generalizes to the study of the effects of multiple factors. When the experiment includes observations at all combinations of levels of each factor, it is termed factorial. Factorial experiments are more efficient than a series of single factor experiments and the efficiency grows as the number of factors increases. Consequently, factorial designs are heavily used.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The use of ANOVA to study the effects of multiple factors has a complication. In a 3-way ANOVA with factors x, y and z, the ANOVA model includes terms for the main effects (x, y, z) and terms for interactions (xy, xz, yz, xyz).


title: Analysis of variance

text: All terms require hypothesis tests. The proliferation of interaction terms increases the risk that some hypothesis test will produce a false positive by chance. Fortunately, experience says that high order interactions are rare.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The ability to detect interactions is a major advantage of multiple factor ANOVA. Testing one factor at a time hides interactions, but produces apparently inconsistent experimental results.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Caution is advised when encountering interactions; Test interaction terms first and expand the analysis beyond ANOVA if interactions are found. Texts vary in their recommendations regarding the continuation of the ANOVA procedure after encountering an interaction. Interactions complicate the interpretation of experimental data. Neither the calculations of significance nor the estimated treatment effects can be taken at face value. "A significant interaction will often mask the significance of main effects." Graphical methods are recommended to enhance understanding. Regression is often useful. A lengthy discussion of interactions is available in Cox (1958). Some interactions can be removed (by transformations) while others cannot.


title: Analysis of variance

text: A variety of techniques are used with multiple factor ANOVA to reduce expense. One technique used in factorial designs is to minimize replication (possibly no replication with support of analytical trickery) and to combine groups when effects are found to be statistically (or practically) insignificant. An experiment with many insignificant factors may collapse into one with a few factors supported by many replications.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Some analysis is required in support of the "design" of the experiment while other analysis is performed after changes in the factors are formally found to produce statistically significant changes in the responses. Because experimentation is iterative, the results of one experiment alter plans for following experiments.


title: Analysis of variance

text: In the design of an experiment, the number of experimental units is planned to satisfy the goals of the experiment. Experimentation is often sequential.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Early experiments are often designed to provide mean-unbiased estimates of treatment effects and of experimental error. Later experiments are often designed to test a hypothesis that a treatment effect has an important magnitude; in this case, the number of experimental units is chosen so that the experiment is within budget and has adequate power, among other goals.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Reporting sample size analysis is generally required in psychology. "Provide information on sample size and the process that led to sample size decisions." The analysis, which is written in the experimental protocol before the experiment is conducted, is examined in grant applications and administrative review boards.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Besides the power analysis, there are less formal methods for selecting the number of experimental units. These include graphical methods based on limiting the probability of false negative errors, graphical methods based on an expected variation increase (above the residuals) and methods based on achieving a desired confidence interval.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Power analysis is often applied in the context of ANOVA in order to assess the probability of successfully rejecting the null hypothesis if we assume a certain ANOVA design, effect size in the population, sample size and significance level. Power analysis can assist in study design by determining what sample size would be required in order to have a reasonable chance of rejecting the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Several standardized measures of effect have been proposed for ANOVA to summarize the strength of the association between a predictor(s) and the dependent variable or the overall standardized difference of the complete model. Standardized effect-size estimates facilitate comparison of findings across studies and disciplines. However, while standardized effect sizes are commonly used in much of the professional literature, a non-standardized measure of effect size that has immediately "meaningful" units may be preferable for reporting purposes.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Sometimes tests are conducted to determine whether the assumptions of ANOVA appear to be violated. Residuals are examined or analyzed to confirm homoscedasticity and gross normality. Residuals should have the appearance of (zero mean normal distribution) noise when plotted as a function of anything including time and


title: Analysis of variance

text: A statistically significant effect in ANOVA is often followed by additional tests. This can be done in order to assess which groups are different from which other groups or to test various other focused hypotheses. Follow-up tests are often distinguished in terms of whether they are "planned" (a priori) or "post hoc." Planned tests are determined before looking at the data, and post hoc tests are conceived only after looking at the data (though the term "post hoc" is inconsistently used).


title: Analysis of variance

text: The follow-up tests may be "simple" pairwise comparisons of individual group means or may be "compound" comparisons (e.g., comparing the mean pooling across groups A, B and C to the mean of group D). Comparisons can also look at tests of trend, such as linear and quadratic relationships, when the independent variable involves ordered levels. Often the follow-up tests incorporate a method of adjusting for the multiple comparisons problem.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Follow-up tests to identify which specific groups, variables, or factors have statistically different means include the Tukey's range test, and Duncan's new multiple range test. In turn, these tests are often followed with a Compact Letter Display (CLD) methodology in order to render the output of the mentioned tests more transparent to a non-statistician audience.


title: Analysis of variance

text: There are several types of ANOVA. Many statisticians base ANOVA on the design of the experiment, especially on the protocol that specifies the random assignment of treatments to subjects; the protocol's description of the assignment mechanism should include a specification of the structure of the treatments and of any blocking. It is also common to apply ANOVA to observational data using an appropriate statistical model.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Balanced experiments (those with an equal sample size for each treatment) are relatively easy to interpret; unbalanced experiments offer more complexity. For single-factor (one-way) ANOVA, the adjustment for unbalanced data is easy, but the unbalanced analysis lacks both robustness and power. For more complex designs the lack of balance leads to further complications. "The orthogonality property of main effects and interactions present in balanced data does not carry over to the unbalanced case. This means that the usual analysis of variance techniques do not apply. Consequently, the analysis of unbalanced factorials is much more difficult than that for balanced designs." In the general case, "The analysis of variance can also be applied to unbalanced data, but then the sums of squares, mean squares, and "F"-ratios will depend on the order in which the sources of variation are considered."


title: Analysis of variance

text: ANOVA is (in part) a test of statistical significance. The American Psychological Association (and many other organisations) holds the view that simply reporting statistical significance is insufficient and that reporting confidence bounds is preferred.


title: Analysis of variance

text: ANOVA is considered to be a special case of linear regression which in turn is a special case of the general linear model. All consider the observations to be the sum of a model (fit) and a residual (error) to be minimized.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The Kruskal–Wallis test and the Friedman test are nonparametric tests, which do not rely on an assumption of normality.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Linearly re-order the data so that formula_25-th observation is associated with a response formula_26 and factors formula_27 where formula_28 denotes the different factors and formula_29 is the total number of factors. In one-way ANOVA formula_30 and in two-way ANOVA formula_31. Furthermore, we assume the formula_32-th factor has formula_33 levels, namely formula_34. Now, we can one-hot encode the factors into the formula_35 dimensional vector formula_36.


title: Analysis of variance

text: The one-hot encoding function formula_37 is defined such that the formula_4-th entry of formula_39 is


title: Analysis of variance

text: The vector formula_36 is the concatenation of all of the above vectors for all formula_32. Thus, formula_43. In order to obtain a fully general formula_29-way interaction ANOVA we must also concatenate every additional interaction term in the vector formula_36 and then add an intercept term. Let that vector be formula_46.


title: Analysis of variance

text: With this notation in place, we now have the exact connection with linear regression. We simply regress response formula_26 against the vector formula_46. However, there is a concern about identifiability. In order to overcome such issues we assume that the sum of the parameters within each set of interactions is equal to zero. From here, one can use "F"-statistics or other methods to determine the relevance of the individual factors.


title: Analysis of variance

text: We can consider the 2-way interaction example where we assume that the first factor has 2 levels and the second factor has 3 levels.


title: Analysis of variance

text: Define formula_49 if formula_50 and formula_51 if formula_52, i.e. formula_53 is the one-hot encoding of the first factor and formula_32 is the one-hot encoding of the second factor.


title: Fields Medal

text: The Fields Medal is a prize awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The name of the award honours the Canadian mathematician John Charles Fields.


title: Fields Medal

text: The Fields Medal is regarded as one of the highest honors a mathematician can receive, and has been described as the Nobel Prize of Mathematics, although there are several major differences, including frequency of award, number of awards, age limits, monetary value, and award criteria. According to the annual Academic Excellence Survey by ARWU, the Fields Medal is consistently regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide, and in another reputation survey conducted by IREG in 2013–14, the Fields Medal came closely after the Abel Prize as the second most prestigious international award in mathematics.


title: Fields Medal

text: The prize includes a monetary award which, since 2006, has been 15,000. Fields was instrumental in establishing the award, designing the medal himself, and funding the monetary component, though he died before it was established and his plan was overseen by John Lighton Synge.


title: Fields Medal

text: The medal was first awarded in 1936 to Finnish mathematician Lars Ahlfors and American mathematician Jesse Douglas, and it has been awarded every four years since 1950. Its purpose is to give recognition and support to younger mathematical researchers who have made major contributions. In 2014, the Iranian mathematician Maryam Mirzakhani became the first female Fields Medallist. In all, 64 people have been awarded the Fields Medal.


title: Fields Medal

text: The medal is often awarded in August, but the most recent group of Fields Medalists received their awards on 5 July 2022 in an online event which was live-streamed from Helsinki, Finland. It was originally meant to be held in Saint Petersburg, Russia, but was moved following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.


title: Fields Medal

text: The Fields Medal has for a long time been regarded as the most prestigious award in the field of mathematics and is often described as the Nobel Prize of Mathematics. Unlike the Nobel Prize, the Fields Medal is only awarded every four years. The Fields Medal also has an age limit: a recipient must be under age 40 on 1 January of the year in which the medal is awarded. The under-40 rule is based on Fields's desire that "while it was in recognition of work already done, it was at the same time intended to be an encouragement for further achievement on the part of the recipients and a stimulus to renewed effort on the part of others." Moreover, an individual can only be awarded one Fields Medal; winners are ineligible to be awarded future medals.


title: Fields Medal

text: First awarded in 1936, 64 people have won the medal as of 2022. With the exception of two PhD holders in Physics (Edward Witten and Martin Hairer), only people with a PhD in mathematics have won the medal.


title: Fields Medal

text: In certain years, the Fields medalists have been officially cited for particular mathematical achievements, while in other years such specificities have not been given. However, in every year that the medal has been awarded, noted mathematicians have lectured at the International Congress of Mathematicians on each medalist's body of work. In the following table, official citations are quoted when possible (namely for the years 1958, 1998, and every year since 2006). For the other years through 1986, summaries of the ICM lectures, as written by Donald Albers, Gerald L. Alexanderson, and Constance Reid, are quoted. In the remaining years (1990, 1994, and 2002), part of the text of the ICM lecture itself has been quoted.


title: Fields Medal

text: The medal was first awarded in 1936 to the Finnish mathematician Lars Ahlfors and the American mathematician Jesse Douglas, and it has been awarded every four years since 1950. Its purpose is to give recognition and support to younger mathematical researchers who have made major contributions.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 1954, Jean-Pierre Serre became the youngest winner of the Fields Medal, at 27. He retains this distinction.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 1966, Alexander Grothendieck boycotted the ICM, held in Moscow, to protest Soviet military actions taking place in Eastern Europe. Léon Motchane, founder and director of the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques, attended and accepted Grothendieck's Fields Medal on his behalf.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 1970, Sergei Novikov, because of restrictions placed on him by the Soviet government, was unable to travel to the congress in Nice to receive his medal.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 1978, Grigory Margulis, because of restrictions placed on him by the Soviet government, was unable to travel to the congress in Helsinki to receive his medal. The award was accepted on his behalf by Jacques Tits, who said in his address: "I cannot but express my deep disappointment—no doubt shared by many people here—in the absence of Margulis from this ceremony. In view of the symbolic meaning of this city of Helsinki, I had indeed grounds to hope that I would have a chance at last to meet a mathematician whom I know only through his work and for whom I have the greatest respect and admiration."


title: Fields Medal

text: In 1982, the congress was due to be held in Warsaw but had to be rescheduled to the next year, because of martial law introduced in Poland on 13 December 1981. The awards were announced at the ninth General Assembly of the IMU earlier in the year and awarded at the 1983 Warsaw congress.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 1998, at the ICM, Andrew Wiles was presented by the chair of the Fields Medal Committee, Yuri I. Manin, with the first-ever IMU silver plaque in recognition of his proof of Fermat's Last Theorem. Don Zagier referred to the plaque as a "quantized Fields Medal". Accounts of this award frequently make reference that at the time of the award Wiles was over the age limit for the Fields medal. Although Wiles was slightly over the age limit in 1994, he was thought to be a favorite to win the medal; however, a gap (later resolved by Taylor and Wiles) in the proof was found in 1993.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 2006, Grigori Perelman, who proved the Poincaré conjecture, refused his Fields Medal and did not attend the congress.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 2014, Maryam Mirzakhani became the first Iranian as well as the first woman to win the Fields Medal, and Artur Avila became the first South American and Manjul Bhargava became the first person of Indian origin to do so.


title: Fields Medal

text: In 2022, Maryna Viazovska became the first Ukrainian to win the Fields Medal, and June Huh became the first person of Korean origin to do so.


title: Fields Medal

text: The medal was designed by Canadian sculptor R. Tait McKenzie. It is made of 14KT gold, has a diameter of 63.5mm, and weighs 169g.


title: Fields Medal

text: Translation: "Mathematicians gathered from the entire world have awarded [understood but not written: 'this prize'] for outstanding writings."


title: Fields Medal

text: In the background, there is the representation of Archimedes' tomb, with the carving illustrating his theorem On the Sphere and Cylinder, behind an olive branch. (This is the mathematical result of which Archimedes was reportedly most proud: Given a sphere and a circumscribed cylinder of the same height and diameter, the ratio between their volumes is equal to .)


title: Fields Medal

text: The Fields Medal has had two female recipients, Maryam Mirzakhani from Iran in 2014, and Maryna Viazovska from Ukraine in 2022.


title: Fields Medal

text: The Fields Medal gained some recognition in popular culture due to references in the 1997 film, "Good Will Hunting". In the movie, Gerald Lambeau (Stellan Skarsgård) is an MIT professor who won the award prior to the events of the story. Throughout the film, references made to the award are meant to convey its prestige in the field.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Operation Downfall was the proposed Allied plan for the invasion of the Japanese home islands near the end of World War II. The planned operation was canceled when Japan surrendered following the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Soviet declaration of war, and the invasion of Manchuria. The operation had two parts: Operation Olympic and Operation Coronet. Set to begin in November 1945, Operation Olympic was intended to capture the southern third of the southernmost main Japanese island, Kyūshū, with the recently captured island of Okinawa to be used as a staging area. In early 1946 would come Operation Coronet, the planned invasion of the Kantō Plain, near Tokyo, on the main Japanese island of Honshu. Airbases on Kyūshū captured in Operation Olympic would allow land-based air support for Operation Coronet. If Downfall had taken place, it would have been the largest amphibious operation in history, surpassing D-Day.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Japan's geography made this invasion plan quite obvious to the Japanese as well; they were able to accurately predict the Allied invasion plans and thus adjust their defensive plan, Operation Ketsugō, accordingly. The Japanese planned an all-out defense of Kyūshū, with little left in reserve for any subsequent defense operations. Casualty predictions varied widely, but were extremely high. Depending on the degree to which Japanese civilians would have resisted the invasion, estimates ran up into the millions for Allied casualties.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Responsibility for the planning of Operation Downfall fell to American commanders Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz, General of the Army Douglas MacArthur and the Joint Chiefs of Staff—Fleet Admirals Ernest King and William D. Leahy, and Generals of the Army George Marshall and Hap Arnold (the latter being the commander of the U.S. Army Air Forces).


title: Operation Downfall

text: At the time, the development of the atomic bomb was a very closely guarded secret (not even then-Vice President Harry Truman knew of its existence until he became President), known only to a few top officials outside the Manhattan Project, and the initial planning for the invasion of Japan did not take its existence into consideration. Once the atomic bomb became available, General Marshall envisioned using it to support the invasion if sufficient numbers could be produced in time.


title: Operation Downfall

text: The Pacific War was not under a single Allied commander-in-chief (C-in-C). Allied command was divided into regions: by 1945, for example, Chester Nimitz was the Allied C-in-C Pacific Ocean Areas, while Douglas MacArthur was Supreme Allied Commander, South West Pacific Area, and Admiral Louis Mountbatten was the Supreme Allied Commander, South East Asia Command. A unified command was deemed necessary for an invasion of Japan. Interservice rivalry over who it should be (the United States Navy wanted Nimitz, but the United States Army wanted MacArthur) was so serious that it threatened to derail planning. Ultimately, the Navy partially conceded, and MacArthur was to be given total command of all forces if circumstances made it necessary.


title: Operation Downfall

text: The primary considerations that the planners had to deal with were time and casualties—how they could force Japan's surrender as quickly as possible with as few Allied casualties as possible. Prior to the First Quebec Conference, a joint CanadianBritishAmerican planning team produced a plan ("Appreciation and Plan for the Defeat of Japan") which did not call for an invasion of the Japanese Home Islands until 1947–48. The American Joint Chiefs of Staff believed that prolonging the war to such an extent was dangerous for national morale. Instead, at the Quebec conference, the Combined Chiefs of Staff agreed that Japan should be forced to surrender not more than one year after Germany's surrender.


title: Operation Downfall

text: The United States Navy urged the use of a blockade and airpower to bring about Japan's capitulation. They proposed operations to capture airbases in nearby Shanghai, China, and Korea, which would give the United States Army Air Forces a series of forward airbases from which to bombard Japan into submission. The Army, on the other hand, argued that such a strategy could "prolong the war indefinitely" and expend lives needlessly, and therefore that an invasion was necessary. They supported mounting a large-scale thrust directly against the Japanese homeland, with none of the side operations that the Navy had suggested. Ultimately, the Army's viewpoint prevailed.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Physically, Japan made an imposing target, distant from other landmasses and with very few beaches geographically suitable for sea-borne invasion. Only Kyūshū (the southernmost island of Japan) and the beaches of the Kantō Plain (both southwest and southeast of Tokyo) were realistic invasion zones. The Allies decided to launch a two-stage invasion. Operation Olympic would attack southern Kyūshū. Airbases would be established, which would give cover for Operation Coronet, the attack on Tokyo Bay.


title: Operation Downfall

text: While the geography of Japan was known, the U.S. military planners had to estimate the defending forces that they would face. Based on intelligence available early in 1945, their assumptions included the following:


title: Operation Downfall

text: Operation Olympic, the invasion of Kyūshū, was to begin on "X-Day", which was scheduled for 1 November 1945. The combined Allied naval armada would have been the largest ever assembled, including 42 aircraft carriers, 24 battleships, and 400 destroyers and destroyer escorts. Fourteen U.S. divisions and a "division-equivalent" (two regimental combat teams) were scheduled to take part in the initial landings. Using Okinawa as a staging base, the objective would have been to seize the southern portion of Kyūshū. This area would then be used as a further staging point to attack Honshu in Operation Coronet.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Olympic was also to include a deception plan, known as Operation Pastel. Pastel was designed to convince the Japanese that the Joint Chiefs had rejected the notion of a direct invasion and instead were going to attempt to encircle and bombard Japan. This would require capturing bases in Formosa, along the Chinese coast, and in the Yellow Sea area.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Tactical air support was to be the responsibility of the Fifth, Seventh, and Thirteenth Air Forces. These were responsible for attacking Japanese airfields and transportation arteries on Kyushu and Southern Honshu (e.g. the Kanmon Tunnel) and for gaining and maintaining air superiority over the beaches. The task of strategic bombing fell on the United States Strategic Air Forces in the Pacific (USASTAF)—a formation which comprised the Eighth and Twentieth air forces, as well as the British Tiger Force. USASTAF and Tiger Force were to remain active through Operation Coronet. The Twentieth Air Force was to have continued its role as the main Allied strategic bomber force used against the Japanese home islands, operating from airfields in the Mariana Islands. Following the end of the war in Europe in May 1945, plans were also made to transfer some of the heavy bomber groups of the veteran Eighth Air Force to airbases on Okinawa to conduct strategic bombing raids in coordination with the Twentieth. The Eighth was to upgrade their B-17 Flying Fortresses and B-24 Liberators to B-29 Superfortresses (the group received its first B-29 on 8 August 1945).


title: Operation Downfall

text: Before the main invasion, the offshore islands of Tanegashima, Yakushima, and the Koshikijima Islands were to be taken, starting on X-5. The invasion of Okinawa had demonstrated the value of establishing secure anchorages close at hand, for ships not needed off the landing beaches and for ships damaged by air attack.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Kyūshū was to be invaded by the Sixth United States Army at three points: Miyazaki, Ariake, and Kushikino. If a clock were drawn on a map of Kyūshū, these points would roughly correspond to 4, 5, and 7 o'clock, respectively. The 35 landing beaches were all named for automobiles: Austin, Buick, Cadillac, and so on through to Stutz, Winton, and Zephyr. With one corps assigned to each landing, the invasion planners assumed that the Americans would outnumber the Japanese by roughly three to one. In early 1945, Miyazaki was virtually undefended, while Ariake, with its good nearby harbor, was heavily defended.


title: Operation Downfall

text: The invasion was not intended to conquer the entire island, just the southernmost third of it, as indicated by the dashed line on the map labeled "general limit of northern advance". Southern Kyūshū would offer a staging ground and a valuable airbase for Operation Coronet.


title: Operation Downfall

text: After the name Operation Olympic was compromised by being sent out in unsecured code, the name Operation Majestic was adopted.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Operation Coronet, the invasion of Honshu at the Kantō Plain south of the capital, was to begin on "Y-Day", which was tentatively scheduled for 1 March 1946. Coronet would have been even larger than Olympic, with up to 45 U.S. divisions assigned for both the initial landing and follow-up. (The Overlord invasion of Normandy, by comparison, deployed 12 divisions in the initial landings.) In the initial stage, the First Army would have invaded at Kujūkuri Beach, on the Bōsō Peninsula, while the Eighth Army invaded at Hiratsuka, on Sagami Bay; these armies would have comprised 25 divisions between them. Later, a follow-up force of up to 20 additional U.S. divisions and up to 5 or more British Commonwealth divisions would have landed as reinforcements. The Allied forces would then have driven north and inland, encircling Tokyo and pressing on toward Nagano.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Olympic was to be mounted with resources already present in the Pacific, including the British Pacific Fleet, a Commonwealth formation that included at least eighteen aircraft carriers (providing 25% of the Allied air power) and four battleships.


title: Operation Downfall

text: Tiger Force, a joint Commonwealth long-range heavy bomber unit, was to be transferred from RAF, RAAF, RCAF and RNZAF units and personnel serving with RAF Bomber Command in Europe. In 1944, early planning proposed a force of 500–1,000 aircraft, including units dedicated to aerial refueling. Planning was later scaled back to 22 squadrons and, by the time the war ended, to 10 squadrons: between 120 and 150 Avro Lancasters/Lincolns, operating out of airbases on Okinawa. Tiger Force was to have included the elite 617 Squadron, also known as "The Dambusters", which carried out specialist bombing operations.