Overshoot ( population ) - wikipedia Overshoot ( population ) This article needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. ( June 2015 ) In population dynamics and population ecology, overshoot occurs when a population temporarily exceeds the long term carrying capacity of its environment. The environment usually has mechanisms in place to prevent overshoot. For example, plants are only able to regenerate and regrow a few times after being consumed before completely dying off. The consequence of overshoot is called a collapse, a crash or a die - off in which there is a decline in population density. The entire sequence or trajectory undergone by the population and its environment together is often termed ' overshoot - and - collapse '. Overshoot can occur due to lag effects. Reproduction rates may remain high relative to the death rate. Entire ecosystems may be severely affected and sometimes reduced to less - complex states due to prolonged overshoot. The eradication of disease can trigger overshoot when a population suddenly exceeds the land 's carrying capacity. An example of this occurred on the Horn of Africa when smallpox was eliminated. A region that had supported around 1 million pastoralists for centuries was suddenly expected to support 14 million people. The result was overgrazing, which led to soil erosion. Contents 1 Humans 2 Measuring human overshoot 3 Overshoot Index of various countries 4 See also 5 References 6 Further reading Humans Main article : Human overpopulation An attempt to apply this concept to human experience is Overshoot : The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, by William R. Catton, Jr., which updates the 1974 book, The Limits to Growth. The Club of Rome study The Limits to Growth used a computer model which was based on overshoot and collapse. The Limits to Growth simulation showed in several scenarios how overshoot could happen based on an assumption of hard limits to resources, but did not deal with questions of substitution of limited resources with renewable resources. Depending on your world view, some believe, including Catton, that the Earth 's population has already overshot its carrying capacity, by both overpopulation and overconsumption. This may include doomers and those within various degrowth movements. An alternative view is cornucopian including those who believe matter and energy will be obtained from beyond Earth. Measuring human overshoot This section does not cite any sources. Please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. ( June 2013 ) Globally, we can measure how much the human economy demands against what the biosphere can renew. One accounting approach is the ecological footprint. Footprint accounting measures the demand on biocapacity, i.e., area of biologically productive land and water required to produce the ecological services ( including resource regeneration and waste absorption ) for a given population. Biocapacity encompasses the biologically productive capacity of all of the planet 's surface areas -- cropland, grazing land, forest, fresh water etc. Footprint accounts include non-renewable resources like fossil fuels and other minerals in as far as their use puts a demand on biocapacity. Some demands are difficult to measure and are not included in the accounts -- hence the results tend to underestimate dependency. Ecological footprint and biocapacity are measured in global hectares ( hectares with world average biological productivity ). Thus increased productivity would reduce dependency ; while increased population or consumption per head would increase it. The percentage of an area 's footprint supported from its renewable resources shows its overall resource dependence within or above its areas ' regeneration rate. A percentage over 100 percent indicates local overuse or net dependence on ecosystems elsewhere. Similarly, the percentage of an area 's population supported from its renewable resources is its sustainable population at current consumption levels with current technology ; the remaining percentage is its overshoot population. A country 's biocapacity deficit increases as either their population or their per capita consumption grows ; and faster if both grow. Overshoot index of various countries A detailed list of countries and their main figures to compute the Overshoot ( overpopulation ) index has been computed by The Optimum Population Trust. All source data is from The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010, based on 2007 figures, produced by the Global Footprint Network. Countries with populations of under one million have been omitted. Global Footprint Network 's data are largely from UN sources ; their methodology is still admittedly imprecise, but is subject to continuous refinement. See also Environment portal Ecology portal Green Revolution Malthusian catastrophe Population cycle Earth Overshoot Day References Jump up ^ schreef, Nathan Surendran ( 2014 - 12 - 01 ). `` Humans in ecological overshoot : Collapse now to avoid a larger catastrophe ''. The Seneca Effect. Retrieved 2017 - 05 - 16. Jump up ^ Schmitz, Oswald J. ( 2013 ). Ecology and Ecosystem Conservation. Island Press. p. 51. ISBN 1597265985. Retrieved 2 August 2016. Jump up ^ Howes, Michael ( 2011 ). `` Development and Ethical Sustainability ''. In Newman, Julie. Green Ethics and Philosophy : An A-to - Z Guide Volume 8 of The SAGE Reference Series on Green Society : Toward a Sustainable Future - Series Editor : Paul Robbins. SAGE Publications. p. 114. ISBN 1452266220. Retrieved 2 August 2016. Jump up ^ Debora MacKenzie ( 10 October 2011 ). `` Low - key projects keep Horn of Africa famine at bay ''. NewScientist. Reed Business Information. Retrieved 11 October 2011. Jump up ^ William R. Catton, Jr. ( 1980 ). Overshoot : The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. University of Illinois Press. ISBN 9780252008184. Jump up ^ Meadows, Donella ; Jørgen Randers, & Dennis Meadows ( 2004 ). Limits to growth : The 30 - year update. White River Junction, VT : Chelsea Green Publishing Company. p. 337. ISBN 1 - 931498 - 51 - 2. CS1 maint : Multiple names : authors list ( link ) Jump up ^ Sharpe, M.E. ( 2015 ). Economic Abundance : An Introduction. M.E. Sharpe,. p. 67. ISBN 0765628082. Retrieved 2 August 2016. Jump up ^ Ryerson, W.F. ( 2010 ), `` Population, The Multiplier of Everything Else '', in McKibben, D, The Post Carbon Reader : Managing the 21st Centery Sustainability Crisis, Watershed Media, ISBN 978 - 0 - 9709500 - 6 - 2 Jump up ^ Brown, L.R. ( 2011 ). World on the Edge. Earth Policy Institute. Norton. ISBN 978 - 0 - 393 - 08029 - 2. Jump up ^ Mathis Wackernagel, Niels B. Schulz, Diana Deumling, Alejandro Callejas Linares, Martin Jenkins, Valerie Kapos, Chad Monfreda, Jonathan Loh, Norman Myers Richard Norgaard and Jørgen Rander ( May 16, 2002 ). Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Retrieved 2 August 2016. Jump up ^ Global Footprint Network. Retrieved 6 August 2016. Jump up ^ Methodology and Sources. Global Footprint Network. Retrieved 6 August 2016. Jump up ^ Optimum Population Trust ( 10 April 2012 ). `` New index highlights most overpopulated countries ''. Overshoot Index. Optimum Population Trust. Retrieved 10 April 2012. Further reading The Population Bomb, by Paul R. Ehrlich Human impact on the environment General Anthropocene Environmental issues List of issues Human impact Impact assessment Planetary boundaries Causes Agriculture fishing irrigation meat production palm oil Energy industry biofuels biodiesel coal electricity generation nuclear power oil shale petroleum reservoirs wind power Genetic pollution Industrialization Land use Manufacturing cleaning agents concrete plastics nanotechnology paint paper pesticides pharmaceuticals and personal care Mining Overdrafting Overfishing Overgrazing Overexploitation Overpopulation Particulates Pollution Quarrying Reservoirs Tourism Transport aviation roads shipping Urbanization urban sprawl war Effects Biodiversity threats Biodiversity loss Climate change Global warming Runaway climate change Coral reefs Deforestation Defaunation Desertification Ecocide Erosion Environmental degradation Freshwater cycle Habitat destruction Holocene extinction Nitrogen cycle Land degradation Land surface effects on climate Loss of green belts Phosphorus cycle Ocean acidification Ozone depletion Resource depletion Water degradation Water scarcity Mitigation Birth control Cleaner production Climate change mitigation Climate engineering Ecological engineering Environmental engineering Environmental mitigation Industrial ecology Mitigation banking Organic farming Reforestation urban Restoration ecology Sustainable consumption Waste minimization Commons by country assessment mitigation Global human population Major topics Biocapacity Optimum population Overpopulation Malthusian catastrophe Population Population ethics Population momentum Sustainable development Women 's reproductive rights Zero population growth Biological and related topics Family planning Pledge two or fewer Human population planning One - child policy Two - child policy Population biology Population decline Population density Physiological density Population dynamics Population growth Population model Population pyramid Projections of population growth Human impact on the environment Deforestation Desalination Desertification Environmental impact of agriculture of aviation of biodiesel of concrete of electricity generation of the energy industry of fishing of irrigation of mining of off - roading of oil shale industry of palm oil of paper of the petroleum industry of reservoirs of shipping of war Industrialisation Land degradation Land reclamation Overconsumption Pollution Quarrying Urbanization Loss of green belts Urban sprawl Waste Water scarcity Overdrafting Population ecology Carrying capacity Deep ecology Earth 's energy budget Food security Habitat destruction I = P × A × T Malthusian growth model Overshoot ( population ) World energy consumption World energy resources World3 model Literature A Modest Proposal Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc. An Essay on the Principle of Population `` How Much Land Does a Man Need ? '' Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth Population Control : Real Costs, Illusory Benefits The Limits to Growth The Population Bomb The Skeptical Environmentalist The Ultimate Resource Publications Population and Environment Population and Development Review Lists Population and housing censuses by country Metropolitan areas by population Population milestone babies Events and organizations 7 Billion Actions International Conference on Population and Development Population Action International Population Connection Population Matters Population Research Institute United Nations Population Fund Voluntary Human Extinction Movement World Population Day World Population Foundation Related topics Classic Maya collapse Fertility and intelligence Green Revolution Holocene extinction Migration Commons Human overpopulation Human activities with impact on the environment Human migration Retrieved from `` https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Overshoot_(population)&oldid=799421448 '' Categories : Population ecology Ecology terminology Human overpopulation Environmental social science concepts Hidden categories : CS1 maint : Multiple names : authors list Articles needing additional references from June 2015 All articles needing additional references All articles with unsourced statements Articles with unsourced statements from July 2011 Articles needing additional references from June 2013 Talk Contents About Wikipedia Add links This page was last edited on 7 September 2017, at 16 : 46. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution - ShareAlike License ; additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Wikipedia ® is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-profit organization. About Wikipedia

Question: when does a dieback or population crash occur
Answer: when a population temporarily exceeds the long term carrying capacity of its environment