sou · H8B34 · 2020-01-29 00:00:00 — This opportunity brings valuable flexibility, increasing the likeli- hood of meeting the target level despite the risks of loss of units in the LULCF sector, for example due to disturbances in the form of storms, insect infestation and fires, or in bio-CCS due to unpredicted obstacles. The volume of annually generated supplementary measures will be built up gradually from 2021 to the target level of 2030 as a mini- mum. The volume is likely to increase gradually rather than linearly, because many of the measures proposed in the action plan have stepped rather than linear effects. Direction and possibility space up to 2045 The direction is for to achieve supplementary measures equivalent to at least 10.7 million of carbon dioxide per year by 2045. There are to be opportunities to increase that level after Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions 2045 should this be needed. The volume of annually generated sup- plementary measures should be built up gradually from 2030 to the target level of 2045 as a minimum. It is not appropriate to propose a detailed distribution between different types of supplementary measures in 2045 at this point because future trends in the cost of measures, alternative technologies and surrounding changes cannot be predicted. Locking in distribu- tion based on the knowledge we have today therefore risks making the effect of supplementary measures as tools in climate policy more expensive and less effective. However, it is possible to produce an argument regarding the possibility space in 2045 with intervals for the different types of measure, given the direction up to 2030 and the content of the action plan (table 2). Future control stations for the supplementary measures should be used to judge where in the possibility space it is desirable to end up and to steer development in that direction. 1Refers to proposed supplementary measures in this strategy. 2In a world that is in transition in line with the temperature goal of the Agreement, the prices of verified emission reductions in other countries are not judged to differ markedly compared with the costs of carrying out measures for negative emissions in . Up to 2045, additional measures in the LULUCF sector may come about and be included as supplementary measures in addition to the areas in which the inquiry proposes instruments, e.g. additional mea- sures in agriculture, measures on land and the use of biochar as a carbon sink. The effect on the carbon sink due to measures on land, e.g. increased protection of or measures to increase growth, is hard to assess because the effect on the carbon sink depends on both how growth develops and on the market’s demand for raw material, which affects the total harvesting level. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions needed of how the additional contribution from different measures on land is to be calculated and counted if they are included as supplementary measures. One particular measure may negatively affect opportunities for implementing other measures locally, while at the same time the measures may also supplement each other in a broader sense. Action plan to achieve the purpose of the strategy and the targets for supplementary measures The action plan seeks to fulfil the purpose of the strategy and attain the proposed targets for supplementary measures through a detailed policy in line with the direction up to 2030. The proposed policy must also make it possible to achieve supplementary measures equiv- alent to 10.7 million of carbon dioxide per year in 2045 and thereafter. The Government and the Parliament need to create sufficient incentives for supplementary measures to ensure that these are carried out to the desired extent. Under today’s climate policy there are largely no incentives for measures that bring about increased re- moval of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. are there any instruments that give market actors incentives to contribute towards funding supplementary measures as an alternative to mitigating their own emissions. The action plan is divided into five sections. The first section is about creating fundamental, general conditions for supplementary measures irrespective of the type of measure. This is followed, in order, by sections on increased carbon sinks and reduced emissions in the LULUCF sector, bio-CCS, other technologies for negative emissions and, to conclude, verified emission reductions in other countries. All sections comprise two parts – firstly a descriptive element about the most important prerequisites and assessments in the area, followed by proposed measures set out in bullet point form. The action plan should be implemented as swiftly as possible. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Create the underlying conditions for developing supplementary measures Underlying conditions and assessment Supplementary measures often involve investment-intensive pro- jects that will run for a long time. For such projects to come about, the field of measures needs to be characterised by stable terms and conditions and clear targets with the aim of reducing the project risks for actors involved. A politically backed quantitative target for supplementary measures by 2045 facilitates long-term planning and long-term action for potential project owners. One target on the path towards supplementary measures by 2030 helps to create trust that the long-term target will be realised. Supplementary measures are a tool for attaining the climate goals in the climate policy framework. Targets set and determined for sup- plementary measures would mainly be aimed at attaining the climate goals and should thus be ranked equally with the climate goals. The field of supplementary measures needs to be constantly eval- uated and developed in the same way as other parts of climate policy. Work to evaluate and develop the supplementary measures should be carried out integrated with, and within the framework of, the system on climate policy applied in general, in line with the climate policy framework. Calculation, reporting and verification of negative emissions need to be developed to enable and the EU to follow up the cli- mate targets and report negative emissions of greenhouse gases in a transparent . currently lacks a system for gathering data and calculat- ing and reporting negative emissions to monitor national goals apart from existing reporting in the LULUCF sector. This should be addressed. The international reporting guidelines and climate reporting tables need to be expanded to enable transparent reporting of negative emis- sions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. For example, there are no guidelines for estimating how much carbon dioxide is bound in concrete, which means that there is no category for reporting such data in the climate reporting tables. are today’s reporting guidelines unequivocal. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions has an opportunity to, and should, report data on nega- tive emissions in the annual Swedish climate report to the EU and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, even if this information cannot be reported in the tables provided. That stated above regarding data collection and reporting also applies to carbon capture and utilisation (CCU). The following measures should be taken: targets for supplementary measures •The Parliament should confirm the targets for supplementary measures proposed in, and which form the starting point for, this strategy. The targets should be ranked as subordinate to the na- tional climate goals and therefore not constitute intermediate objectives within the environmental quality objective system. Implement control stations for supplementary measures •The climate policy action plans that the Government must sub- mit to the Parliament every four years should set out how work on the supplementary measures is progressing. These control stations should also report whether any new type(s) of measure will be able to be counted as supplementary measures. Further- more, the climate policy action plans should contain proposals for steering development in the field of supplementary measures in the desired direction. •The Government should base the control stations for supplemen- tary measures on data from relevant agencies. The Government should therefore task the with compiling such data in partnership with the , , as part of the ’s existing mandate to produce data for the climate policy action plans. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions •The climate reporting that the Government annually presents to the Parliament as an appendix to the budget bill should account for how work on the supplementary measures is progressing. The report should also include how all types of supplementary mea- sures have been developed over time. The Government should task the with com- piling data for the report in partnership with the agencies con- cerned. Develop comprehensive and transparent reporting of supplementary measures •The should be given the task to create a system for collecting data, and for calculating and reporting negative emissions for following up supplementary measures and the national climate goals. The system should en- negative emissions of greenhouse gases, including cap- ture, transport and storage of biogenic and atmospheric carbon dioxide, utilisation of biochar as a carbon sink, and CCU. Follow- ing up emissions and uptake in the LULUCF sector is already covered by existing systems but these need to be developed further to identify the effect of proposed measures in the sector. This part of the mandate should be carried out in consultation with . •Monitoring verified emission reductions through investments in other countries should be carried out in collaboration between the and the Swedish Environmental Pro- tection Agency. •Sweden should work to see that the EU creates transparent sys- tems for reporting negative emissions of greenhouse gases. The reporting should distinguish between short-term and long-term or permanent carbon storage. •The should be given the task to produce a proposal for how, when and in what form information about negative emissions is to be reported interna- tionally and to the EU. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions •Sweden should work to ensure that the international reporting guidelines with associated methodology guidelines and the tables used in climate reporting are developed within the process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Agreement such that negative emissions can be reported appro- priately and transparently. Increased carbon sink in and land Underlying conditions for measures in the LULUCF sector Underlying conditions for measures in the LULUCF sector vary to a very great extent between different countries. In , just under 70 percent of the land area comprises land (28 million hectares), which can be compared with the global average of just over 20 percent. This creates an opportunity for measures that may have a relatively major impact on the carbon sink in the , and on the as a resource for renewable raw materials. Compared with other countries of the same size, the amount of agricultural land in is relatively small (less than 3.5 million hectares of arable and grazing land according to ’s climate reporting). At the same time, there is also scope to create underlying conditions for higher carbon sequestration on such land through measures that may provide several additional values without affecting the domestic supply of food and other products. The biogenic carbon flows found in the LULUCF sector differ considerably from fossil carbon flows in that they are volatile, can flow in both directions and are part of a circular flow. An uptake of carbon stored in biomass at one occasion may contribute emissions at a later stage when the carbon is released, e.g. when biomass is burned or naturally decomposed. The carbon flows in the sector are also highly influenced by natural factors, but human activity is of major significance on forested and agricultural land. There are several potential measures in the LULUCF sector capable of increasing carbon sequestration and reducing greenhouse gas emissions respectively, but the effect of the measures on total greenhouse gas emissions – when in time the effect is achieved and how long-lasting it is – varies hugely due to the inherent inertia of the biological systems affected. This means that certain measures Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions should be put in place early in order to achieve a real effect on carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, 2040, 2045 and thereafter, while other measures can be carried out on an ongoing basis since they have a more direct impact on emissions. One diffi- culty is distinguishing which measures can also provide a long-last- ing effect on the carbon stock into the future. Measures to increase the carbon sink and reduce emissions in the LULUCF sector that produce additional values and meet other objectives, e.g. preserving biodiversity and reducing nutrient leach- ing, should be prioritised. Measures that contribute towards several values and objectives are generally judged to be more lasting than measures that solely help to increase the carbon sink, because in such cases there are more drivers capable of ensuring that the measures are retained. The inquiry’s proposed measures in the LULUCF sector The proposed policies mainly concern measures on agricultural land and agricultural land taken out of production, where agricultural land means arable land and all forms of grazing. On agricultural land, the proposed policies have been judged to lead to an increase in the use of catch crops and cover crops on 400,000 hectares and agro- forestry on 50,000 hectares. The proposed policies are also judged to lead to that 40,000 hectares of agricultural land taken out of produc- tion will be used for energy crop cultivation (e.g. Salix and Poplar) and that 100,000 hectares will be used for afforestation, while ap- proximately 50,000 hectares of land in a later stage of natural over- growth should be managed to promote growth. The assessment of the effects of the measures is based on that they are implemented gradually such that the full area is attained in 2030, apart from car- bon-capture crops, where the full area will be attained in 2040. The inquiry also proposes policies that create incentives so 100,000 hectares of land and 10,000 hectares of former agri- cultural land on peatland previously drained for farming and forestry, may be gradually re-wetted up to 2040. With all proposed measures, it is important that the underlying conditions for attaining other environmental objectives and the objectives of the Strategy are not impeded but rather strengthened. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Provided that the measures above come about in the next ten years, they are judged in combination to be able to contribute to reducing emissions of just over one million of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2030 and almost three million of carbon diox- ide equivalents in 2045. Re-wetting and catch crop initiatives are the most important for these estimated effects. The estimate of available land area is based on land use trends in the agriculture sector today and how land use may change. The future demand for land to produce food and other products is hard to assess, however, and may change rapidly, which means that measures that block agricultural land for other use over a long period have been included to a lesser extent than would be possible if the entire available potential were to be included. The measures in terms of catch crops, cover crops and agro- forestry are judged to be able to be integrated with existing land use without it being affected to any major extent. Energy crop cultiva- tion and afforestation mainly concern measures on land that has already been taken out of production but also involve land that may be taken out of production in the future to a certain extent. Re-wet- ting covers land where forestry is conducted to a limited extent, often former arable land. Land where farming is carried out or has recently been carried out may also be considered for re-wet- ting. Measures to the extent proposed by the inquiry cover less than 1 percent of the total land area used for forestry and slightly more than 14 percent of agricultural land. Regionally, however, the pro- portion may be greater as, for example, the majority (over 80 per- cent) of the approximately 230,000 hectares of agricultural land taken out of production in the past 20 years and that may be available for afforestation is found in and . This is also where the most suitable land for re-wetting is found (land and agricultural land). Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Instruments to increase the carbon sink To put in place measures that lead to enhanced carbon sequestration on existing agricultural land and agricultural land no longer used for food or feed production, advice in agriculture and forestry needs to be stepped up at the same time as making sufficient funding available for these measures in upcoming Rural Development Programmes and in some cases through additional national financing programmes. It is also important that existing funding for other measures that increase or maintain the carbon stocks in agricultural land, e.g. for ley that currently covers large areas, is retained in future programme periods of the Rural Development Programme. In the long term, mea- sures on agricultural land that is proposed to be counted as supple- mentary measures can be broadened such that other crops that are beneficial for carbon sequestration are also included. Adding biochar for long-term carbon sequestration with simultaneous soil improve- ment could also be included. Outreach activity, effective advice and increased opportunities for financial support are needed to initiate extensive re-wetting of drained peatland. Funding that currently exists in the Rural Devel- opment Programme and in the wetlands initiative for creating or restoring wetlands must be supplemented. In general, the measures proposed to increase carbon sequestra- tion and reduce emissions in the LULUCF sector are cost-effective because they usually result in several other environmental benefits in addition to increased carbon sequestration and lower greenhouse gas emissions. For example, catch crops produce a reduction in nu- trient leaching, while re-wetting benefits biodiversity. The under- lying conditions for measures, and thus also the costs, vary con- siderably within the sector, and some measures, e.g. afforestation, may also bring an income for the landowner. Examples of costs of measures include the cost of re-wetting, which comes in at between and per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent de- pending on the land concerned, and the cost of catch crops and cover crops, where the cost comes in at between and per tonne of carbon dioxide. No simultaneous benefits have been valued in this case. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Other measures to strengthen and preserve the carbon sink There is also potential to increase the carbon sink on land through measures that increase growth and management mea- sures that also prioritise other environmental values and by exempt- ing larger areas of productive land from production to attain other environmental objectives such as the environmental quality objective Sustainable . In a national perspective, the total effect on the ’s carbon balance from growth-increasing measures and measures that in- crease the protection of will mainly be determined by how harvesting develops in relation to total growth. The harvesting level in turn depends on demand for Swedish raw material. In- creased demand for raw material in may also lead to more harvesting in another country if this demand cannot be met with Swedish raw material. Another opportunity to increase carbon sequestration is to in- crease production and use of long-lived wood products, e.g. by in- creasing the use of wood in . Increased use of long-lived wood products also leads to reduced fossil emissions in that they can replace more fossil-intensive alternatives. Permanently changing land use from land and arable land to settlement can lead to major emissions of greenhouse gases and lost carbon sinks. The effect on emissions and carbon sinks can be reduced either by development being steered to land where the impact on the greenhouse balance is lower or through limiting the area developed each year. There is also a great need to safeguard the existing carbon stocks already sequestered in biomass and in land, in the light of ongoing climate change bringing increasing risks of damage of various types, e.g. storms, drought, insect infestation, root rot and fires. There is a need to increase knowledge of different types of damage to boost preparedness in the event of outbreaks. Besides the climate-related damage referred to, there is also a major need to reduce the damage from grazing wild animals in the . This damage has a negative impact on carbon sequestration, production and biodiversity, and also leads to major eco- nomic losses in forestry. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Knowledge is good but can be improved Knowledge about the proposed measures and of the impact of these measures on the greenhouse gas balance is already good. For several of the measures, however, it is essential that preparatory work is conducted by the agencies concerned to identify which measures should be carried out on which land so as not to negatively impact on other environmental objectives. For example, this involves devel- oping recommendations on where it is appropriate to increase bushes and trees on agricultural land, and on where afforestation is appro- priate and which varieties of tree should be used. Several of the proposed measures already exist today in the por- tion of agriculture eligible for financial support. In conjunction with producing the new Rural Development Programme, however, com- pensation for these measures needs to be reviewed at the same time as developing support schemes for measures that are not currently included. Forms of support for measures that do not naturally fall within the Rural Development Programme, or where the support is not sufficient today, should also be developed. The Government should therefore commission several agencies to contribute expertise and further develop work in their respective areas. An important element in terms of supplementary measures in general and supplementary measures in the LULUCF sector in par- ticular is developing reporting and monitoring systems so as to enable evaluation of the impact of proposed measures and instruments. Such a system should complement existing systems for reporting green- house gas emissions to the EU and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. High quality requirements for the contribution from the LULUCF sector Increased removal or reduced emissions from supplementary mea- sures in the LULUCF sector must be calculated and reported under Regulation 2018/841 of Parliament and the Council (the LULUCF Regulation). It should be possible to count supplementary measures in the LULUCF sector towards the national climate goals as the additional Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions effect of each individual measure proposed here, compared with the situation had the measure not been carried out, provided that the additional effect on removal and emissions can be estimated in a reli- able .