sou · H8B34 · 2020-01-29 00:00:00 — Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 85 percent re- quires ceasing practically all use of fossil fuel in society at the same time as emissions from industrial processes reach levels close to zero, partly by phasing out the use of fossil inputs and by applying CCS technology in industries such as cement production, where fossil carbon emissions cannot otherwise be avoided. The efficiency of the use of energy and materials must be hugely improved, and emissions from electricity supply need to reach zero-levels while electricity use increases in industry and the transport sector. The greenhouse gas emissions that remain once emissions have been reduced by 85 percent are mainly methane and nitrous oxide Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions emissions from several disparate sources in society, e.g. from incin- eration of biofuels, waste water treatment plants, digestion for bio- gas production and emissions from agriculture. Based on today’s knowledge and technology, these remaining emissions are judged to be very difficult and expensive to eliminate entirely. The largest remaining greenhouse gas emissions in 2045 are expected to be found in the agricultural sector. Agricultural green- house gas emissions largely come about as the result of biological processes, and emissions are typically spread across a very large area, making them hard to control and capture. It is true that emissions may be reduced per produced unit of food or agricultural product and by prioritising the production of products with low associated emissions, but emissions cannot be eradicated entirely. Given today’s knowledge and technology, cannot attain zero emissions as long as agriculture continues to exist. can therefore not attain the national climate goal of net zero emissions by 2045 at the latest through emission mitigation alone. The conclusion therefore is that supplementary measures are needed to compensate for emissions that cannot be entirely elimi- nated with today’s knowledge and technology. Investment in the field of supplementary measures, in parallel with technological devel- opment and a transformation of society to reduce emissions, will mean is not dependent on highly uncertain future leaps in technology to attain the goal of net zero emissions by 2045 and will simultaneously pave the way for achieving net negative emissions thereafter. Supplementary measures are needed to go beyond net zero According to the climate policy framework, is to have net emissions that are lower than zero once the net zero target has been achieved by 2045 at the latest, i.e. net negative emissions. Net nega- tive emissions will only be possible if supplementary measures are used and deducted from remaining emissions. The framework does not specify how far below zero Swedish net emissions must be after 2045. Provided that future national climate goals continue to be determined on a scientific basis, and taking global into account, it is, however, likely that Swedish climate Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions goals after 2045 will need to be considerably lower than net zero. In order to attain such goals, a considerable volume of supplementary measures will be needed. According to the IPCC, unless global emissions plummet rapidly in the immediate future, considerable net negative emissions will also be needed at global level after 2050 to meet the temperature goal set out in the Agreement, and this situation will prevail for a long time to come. The earlier that major reductions in emissions and negative emissions come about, the lower the need for negative net emissions will be in the second half of the century to compensate for exceeding the carbon budget for , but even in such a devel- opment scenario, global net emissions would need to be below zero. Therefore, it is likely that will have national climate goals that are considerably lower than net zero from the second half of this century onwards and for a foreseeable period thereafter. Thus, in the long term, the volume of Swedish supplementary measures will probably need to remain at a high level for a long time. Supplementary measures can increase cost efficiency in both the short and the long term If the national climate goals on the path towards net zero emissions are to be met without adding in supplementary measures, the cost of achieving the goals will rise. The supplementary measures proposed in this strategy are estimated to be associated with considerably lower costs for measures in 2030 than, for example, emission miti- gation through further increased use of biofuels over and above what can be demanded to attain the climate target for the transport sector. Also, the cost of measures in the field of biofuels to achieve the climate goal for the transport sector is judged to be higher than the cost of the proposed supplementary measures. However, this is of no practical significance, since the way the goals are designed means that the transport goal must be met without factoring in supplemen- tary measures. The cost of achieving the Swedish net zero emission goal by 2045 at the latest purely through emission mitigation is judged to widely exceed the cost of achieving the goal by also factoring in supplemen- tary measures, because the former requires major interventions regard- ing the extent of agricultural production in , among other Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions The measures that may come to be necessary for achieving the net zero climate target without supplementary measures also risk leading to higher emissions in other countries, e.g. through increased imports of agricultural products, which would seriously reduce the overall actual climate benefit. The opportunity to meet more stringent climate goals We are constantly adding to our knowledge on climate change. IPCC’s most recent reports from 2018 and 2019 show that global net emissions need to fall extremely rapidly in the immediate decades, through emission mitigation and increased removal, if the tem- perature goal of the Agreement is to be achieved. The research results also show that even now, at a temperature increase of about a degree compared with preindustrial levels, the effects of a changed climate are more extensive than was previously predicted. It is feasible that the national climate goals will need to be tight- ened up to continue to be in line with the goal of the Agree- ment and ’s ambition to be a trailblazer in the area of climate change. If society in is successfully transformed to attain very low greenhouse gas emissions, supplementary measures may make it possible to respond to tougher climate goals at national or European level. Principles for how the volume of supplementary measures should be built up The same climate effect must be attained as for emission mitigation in In line with the climate policy framework, the climate effect of sup- plementary measures must be comparable with the climate effect of emission mitigation in . In other words, when supplementary measures are used to attain the climate goals, this must not mean lowering ambitions in terms of climate effect. This is a very impor- tant starting point for the strategy, which, inter alia, means that it is proposed that only negative emissions (removal of greenhouse gases) and reduced emissions in the land use, land use change and forestry Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions sector (LULUCF sector) which follow from the effect of measures in this strategy are able to be counted as supplementary measures. Accounted net removals and emission reductions in the LULUCF sector which would have occurred even in the absence of these measures should not be able to be counted towards the climate goals as supplementary measures, because this could lead to a lower mitiga- tion effect in total compared with emission mitigation in . The above interpretation is in line with the IPCC’s definition of negative emissions, which states that these arise through planned human activity, e.g. in addition to the removal that would otherwise have taken place naturally in the carbon cycle. For supplementary measures to be comparable with emission mitigation in , the climate effect must also be comparable over time. When supplementary measures are used to attain any of the climate goals in the national climate policy framework, they must be used and allocated such that they compensate for a higher emis- sion level over time – not only for the specific target year. If supple- mentary measures were only to be used such that they compensate for a higher emission level in a specific target year, their climate effect would not be comparable with the climate effect of emission reduc- tions in . The supplementary measures used must lower the cost of attaining the climate goals Supplementary measures must be capable of helping to attain the climate goals in a cost-effective that is also effective in terms of the socio economy. In selecting which supplementary measures should be carried out, cost-effectiveness in the short and the long term are elements that should be factored in. The analysis should also consider risks, the permanence of carbon storage, signif- icant ancillary benefits and negative effects. The instruments applied to achieve the supplementary measures also need to be designed such that they are cost-effective and effec- tive in terms of the national economy. One component in this is to avoid carbon leakage, i.e. production and associated greenhouse gas emissions moving from to other areas where the production costs are lower as a result of a less ambitious climate policy. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Spreading the risks should be a guiding principle The different types of supplementary measures are all associated with uncertainty and risks in their implementation. These risks mean that it is highly likely that several of the projects initiated as supple- mentary measures will fail to deliver negative emissions or emission reductions according to plan. It is also possible that a whole category of supplementary mea- sures will prove to be a difficult path. This might be the case, for example, if a market for trading verified emission reductions would not come into being internationally, or if geological storage sites for Swedish carbon dioxide would not become accessible. Changes in EU regulations may mean that what can be counted as a supplementary measure today will not automatically be able to be counted as such tomorrow. This is particularly true if the scope of the EU’s main legal provisions in the climate field are changed in terms of emission sources and sinks or accounting rules. Several of these legal provisions do not extend further than . The type of risks naturally varies between the different supple- mentary measures. The effects of proposed and other potential mea- sures in the LULUCF sector depend, among other things, on how quickly they can be brought about and how incentives to carry out the measures are affected by other factors, e.g. the market’s demand for different products from agriculture and forestry. There are also risks associated with different forms of natural disturbances, some with a link to how the climate develops, which may limit the outcomes of the measures taken. For bio-CCS, commercial risks are likely to be the major threat to project implementation but there are also technical, legal and political risks or obstacles that may delay or halt bio-CCS projects, even if the proposals of the inquiry seek to reduce these. The Agreement’s rulebook for trade in mitigation outcomes between countries has still not been finally negotiated. This is one of several factors that mean that it is likely to take a number of years before it is possible for to carry out verified emission reduc- tions in other countries in a way that firstly ensures that the efforts lead to measures over and above those that would have been taken in the host countries in any case, and secondly does not lead to double counting of the emission mitigation attained. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions Other technical measures for removal of greenhouse gases are at an early stage of development and are untested on a larger scale. At the moment, there is also a lack of a system or common regulations to report and account for negative emissions using such technologies. Given the risks inherent in supplementary measures in all areas, it would be unwise to focus on only one type of supplementary mea- sure. Spreading the risk should therefore, at least initially, be a guid- ing principle for how the volume of supplementary measures is to be built up over time. In the long term, it may become clear that one or more types of supplementary measures should be prioritised over others. Action today means room for manoeuvre tomorrow The supplementary measures are generally characterised by high complexity and long lead times. No high-quality supplementary mea- sures can be carried out without being preceded by extensive planning and preparation work. How long the time lag is between a decision on a measure until the result of the measure can start to be taken into account in climate accounting differs markedly, however, between different supplementary measures. For most of the measures in the LULUCF area, further analyses are needed of where different measures can suitably be carried out, but these analyses should not be so extensive that they prevent the measures from being implemented within a year or two. Once mea- sures are in place, it takes different amounts of time before the full effect is attained. A measure such as re-wetting drained peatland will reduce emissions relatively quickly, while the full effect of afforesta- tion measures will only be attained after several decades. Bio-CCS projects are associated with long lead times. Pilot- studies permit processes and setting up installations to capture, trans- port and store carbon dioxide will take several years in total for each individual project. The lead times for implementing measures in other countries that can be judged to be additional, contribute towards sustainable devel- opment and to raising the level of ambition globally, will probably be relatively long, particularly in the introductory phase. Under the Agreement, all parties have their own national climate plans Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions that will gradually need to be made stricter. Limiting emissions in a country that has also adopted its own climate plan and introduced national instruments for emission mitigation in the climate field therefore requires collaboration between the parties involved, partly to identify how implementing measures will not make it more diffi- cult for the host country to meet its targets or to raise its own ambitions. to the long lead times from decision to result for several of the supplementary measures, it is necessary to act in the immediate future so as not to shrink future room for manoeuvre on climate policy. If, for example, bio-CCS is to be able to play a significant role in climate policy in 2045, the first plants need to be taken into operation in the 2020s, which demands immediate action on the part of the State. The same timescale applies to certain measures in the LULUCF sector. It is thus important that an investment in supplementary mea- sures is introduced without delay so that it is possible to fully benefit from the opportunities and the room for manoeuvre that the supple- mentary measures bring. Stable terms and objectives attract project owners Most supplementary measures involve projects that will run for a long time, often decades. Projects in the LULUCF sector can also result in a landowner being unable to farm a specific area in the same way as before. Decisions to implement such projects are not made lightly. Projects can also be associated with major investments. This is always the case with bio-CCS, for example. In order to attract appropriate project owners, the area of supple- mentary measures should therefore be characterised by stable terms and conditions and clear targets. This aids predictability and reduces the risk for potential project owners. Stable terms and conditions mean that the direction of gover- nance should not change radically over time. Instruments can and should be gradually developed, but, in other words, this should take place in a way that does not dramatically alter the underlying condi- tions for the actors affected. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions The volume of supplementary measures should be built up gradually Swedish actors’ experience of several types of supplementary mea- sures is limited. Experience is often limited internationally too. This is the case with bio-CCS, for example, and biochar. Technologies and measures where experience is limited today can be assumed to be in a phase in which the learning curve is steep and where development towards greater effectiveness and lower costs may be rapid once experience has increased. Gradually up the volume of supplementary measures means experiences from early projects in and abroad can help to lower the cost and increase the efficiency of subsequent projects. Swedish projects provide relevant experience for the underlying conditions that apply here; equivalent experience cannot usually be fully obtained by studying projects abroad. If the volume of supplementary measures is built up gradually, certain types of measures can be prioritised ahead of others on the basis of evaluations of early initiatives before volumes have reached high levels. Development towards technology-neutral governance The supplementary measures that are feasible today differ wildly in character and find themselves in different phases of technological maturity. The costs of some of them may be thought to fall faster when the experience of measures increases compared with other supplementary measures where the cost scenario is more stable. There are also major differences in the quantitative potential differ- ent supplementary measures have and thus what role they can play in a long-term climate transition. In the short term, there are therefore grounds to apply technol- ogy-specific governance that permits different instruments and pric- ing for different types of supplementary measure. This creates oppor- tunities for measures and technologies that are currently associated with relatively high costs, compared with other options, to contribute to a cost-effective climate policy when experiences of the measures increase, and the costs fall. In the long term, governance of supplementary measures should be developed towards technology neutrality. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions maturity and experience of supplementary measures have increased, technology-neutral governance facilitates good cost-effectiveness. In the long term, too, it is likely that there will be new technological solutions in early stages of development that may need to be the object of specific development-support initiatives. Technology-neutral governance needs to consider the fact that the end product of different supplementary measures differs. For example, there is a major difference between carbon dioxide which is permanently and irreversibly stored (e.g. through bio-CCS) and carbon dioxide that is stored for the long term but where this is temporary or reversible (e.g. through afforestation), even if both can be counted as negative emissions. This difference can justify differ- entiated compensation for negative emissions. In addition to development towards technology-neutral gover- nance, a move towards geographically neutral governance that does not take national boundaries into account may ultimately become relevant in the longer term. There is no ceiling for the volume of supplementary measures The climate policy framework contains rules that limit the volumes from supplementary measures that may be counted towards the climate goals. On the other hand, there is no limit on the volume actually created. This strategy contains targets for the volume of supplementary measures expressed as minimum levels. In the future, however, it may prove to be the case that higher levels are needed or desirable. The proposals in the action plan seek to clear the minimum levels but they also create underlying conditions for going further in the long term where necessary and generating a larger volume of supple- mentary measures. with the development of the EU’s climate policy The EU’s climate policy is developing rapidly. At the end of 2019 the EU Heads of State, except for one , backed the goal of a climate-neutral EU by 2050. from the Commission on from the same period Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions contains a wide-ranging roadmap for work in the coming years to- wards a tougher environment and climate policy for sustainable economic growth in Europe. Negative emissions are part of Commission’s long-term climate strategy, but actual gover- nance in this area is absent at EU level, except for the LULUCF sector. It is likely that a European policy for negative emissions of greenhouse gases will eventually be developed. It can also be noted that international climate measures are not included in the proposals drawn up so far. Formally tightening up the EU’s climate target or organised vol- untary overperformance compared with the goals of Member States with high ambitions, would probably hasten the development of EU-wide governance of negative emissions. The Swedish supplementary measures need to be planned, de- fined, carried out and managed so that they can work well with the EU’s regulations, now and in the future. Direction of supplementary measures up to 2030 and possibility space up to 2045 The volume of supplementary measures should be built up in line with the proposed targets for supplementary measures and princi- ples above. The impact assessment presented in section 20 forms a basis for this strategy and its action plan together with the con- clusions and assessments made in the other sections of the report. Direction up to 2030 Up to 2030 the direction should be towards creating supplementary measures equivalent to at least 3.7 million of carbon dioxide per year with a rough distribution between the main types of mea- sures set out in table 1 below. The direction may need to be modified in conjunction with the control stations proposed to reflect experi- ence won and external developments. Summary: Strategy for negative greenhouse gas emissions 1Equivalent to the entire effect of proposed supplementary measures compared with the measures not being carried out. 2Inclusive use of biochar as a carbon sink, which, however, is not judged to result in any major boost by 2030. The total volume of verified emission reductions in other countries should amount to a total of at least 20 million of carbon diox- ide equivalents in the 2020s. Of this, 0.7 million are calcu- lated as supplementary measures in the specific year 2030 in line with the direction above. The remaining volume is calculated partly as supplementary measures for the period 2021–2029 as the quantity of supplementary measures must be built up gradually, and partly as results-based climate financing. If any of the other types of supplementary measures fail to deliver in line with the direction, the gap can be compensated for by a larger proportion of verified emission reductions in other countries being counted as a supplementary measure instead of as climate financing.