sou · H3B365 · 2015-08-04 00:00:00 — Plattformar för resurser ....................................................... Kampen tilltar mellan radikal förnyelse och traditionella Kostnadsjakt räcker inte i en föränderlig marknad ............ Etablerade marknader utmanas i grunden........................... Konkurrens från helt nya och oväntade aktörer................. Framtidens medielandskap, demokratin och den sociala Social sammanhållning och föreställd gemenskap ........................ Medier och social sammanhållning...................................... Förändrat medielandskap, förändrad mediekonsumtion ............. Allt mer fragmenterad nyhetskonsumtion ......................... Mekanismer bakom den ökade fragmenteringen.......................... Framtidens medielandskap och den sociala sammanhållningen .. Framtidsfolket – Modernitet och svensk nationell identitet – Det svenska sociala kontraktet....................................................... Den svenska modellen .......................................................... Marknad och välfärdsstat i harmoni .................................... Landet annorlunda – värderingar och institutioner ...................... Svenska värderingar enligt World Values Survey ................ Svenska folkets väg: från till Framtidsfolket.............. Svenska, fria bönder.............................................................. Gå din egen väg: Framåt ....................................................... Land ska med lag byggas ...................................................... Den nordiska familjen och äktenskapsmodellen ................ Familjepolitiska reformer utgår från individen ................... Det lutherska arvet ............................................................... Framtidsfolket: Ett land av ingenjörer ................................ I want to be alone: ensamhet och it, manicker kontra Framtidens digitala landskap och miljöer – .... Introduktion – Är framtiden redan här? Att spekulera om framtiden – eller hur gör man ”Disciplined imagination” – Ett försök till informerade Fyra aktuella trender – En utgångspunkt för framtidsanalys ....... Design för öppenhet ............................................................. Insamling, bearbetning och användning av massiva Ökad it och informationsintegration .................................. Utveckling av Internet of Things/sakernas internet .......... Fyra framväxande områden som konvergerar – landskap växer Ett exempel från dagens verklighet ............................................... Fyra områden med varsin balansakt att beakta för Design för öppenhet OCH skyddande av personlig Insamling, bearbetning och användning av massiva datamängder OCH betydelsen av att system bör kunna Ökad it och informationsintegration OCH slutna Utveckling av Internet of Things/Sakernas internet OCH att undvika utveckling mot en automatiserad Hur stimulera till en sund it-utveckling relaterat dessa fyra Stöd FoU-projekt med inriktning mot öppenhet.......... Granska kritiskt förslag till samkörningar av data ......... Stimulera utveckling för de digitala landskapens Stöd forskning och utveckling av ett sakernas internet som berikar våra liv, som gör oss delaktiga och Bortom fyra konverterande trender, vad händer just nu? Det it-politiska målet är tydligt – ska vara bäst i världen på att använda digitaliseringens möjligheter. Vi är också ett av världens mest framgångsrika länder på att använda it och de möjligheter digitaliseringens innebär och det har vi varit under . Många länder har intensifierat arbetet med att ta tillvara digitaliseringens potential, inte minst inom de offentliga verksamheterna, vilket innebär att position har försämrats. Hur kommer det sig att digitaliseringen är så viktig? Och varför är det så viktigt för att fortsatt arbeta mot målet att vara bäst i världen på att använda digitaliseringens möjligheter? Det beror på att vi befinner oss mitt i en transformation till ett helt nytt samhälle där digitaliseringen är katalysatorn, möjliggöraren och motorn. Digitaliseringen och användningen av ny teknik skapar radikalt förändrade förutsättningar för framtiden. Det är en omvälvande, och på många sätt omstörtande, förändring inom nästan alla områden i samhället. Den innebär att vi gör saker på nya sätt och framförallt att vi kan göra helt nya saker. Digitaliseringen förändrar grundläggande strukturer för företag och offentlig sektor, för arbetsliv och utbildning men också förutsättningarna för tillit och social sammanhållning i samhället förändras. Därmed handlar trans- formeringen genom digitaliseringen om samhällets viktigaste delar – tillväxt och hållbarhet, välfärd och demokrati. Teknisk utveckling har alltid varit nära sammanlänkad med samhällets utveckling. Tekniska framsteg förändrar samhällets eko- nomi, dvs. hur vi producerar de saker och tjänster vi behöver och vill ha. Därmed förändras också samhällets sociala strukturer och institutioner. Vårt sätt att tänka, våra idéer om vad vi är och vad vi kan göra påverkas i en ständig växelverkan mellan vad som är möj- ligt att tänka och göra och vad nya tekniska upp- täckter möjliggör. Den vetenskapliga revolutionen innebar att vår människosyn och världsbild ändrades vilket ledde fram till utvecklingen av ny teknik och ett helt nytt samhälle – det industrialiserade, kapitalistiska och demokratiska samhället. är det utvecklingen inom it – informations- teknologin – som omdanar oss och samhället. Denna utveckling kommer att fortsätta och digitaliseringen anses vara den enskilt största förändringsfaktorn åtminstone fram . Digitaliseringen fortgår tillsammans med ett antal andra starka pågående samhällstrender såsom ökad globalisering, starkare indi- vidualisering, större mångfald och pluralism, urbanisering etc. Dessa utvecklingstrender samspelar och driver varandra vilket leder till den allt snabbare samhällsutveckling vi befinner oss i. Vilket slags samhälle kommer vi se framför oss? Kommer det vara ett digitaliserat, hållbart samhälle där nyttjandeekonomin, dvs. där tillgång till nyttjande snarare än ägande, har en allt större bety- delse? Kommer det vara ett samhälle där vi arbetar mindre men välfärden är bättre än ? Eller är det ett samhälle där tillgången till resurser är mycket ojämnt fördelad, där ojämlikheten växer och vår integritet hotas? Regeringen har gett i uppdrag att genomföra en omvärldsanalys som belyser och lyfter fram vad som kan komma att påverka digitaliseringen i . I uppdraget ingår även att identifiera strategiska områden som bör beaktas i utveck- lingen av den framtida digitaliseringspolitiken. För att fortsätta att vara bäst i världen behöver vi lära av histo- rien, förstå utvecklingen vi befinner oss i och identifiera strategiska områden för framtiden. Hur kommer det sig att vi blivit så fram- gångsrika? Vad har haft betydelse för utvecklingen? Vad är det för förändringar som digitaliseringen innebär? Vad kan komma att påverka användning av digitaliseringens möjligheter fram- över? Den här antologin utgör ett kunskapsunderlag i vårt arbete. Ett antal forskare, sakkunniga och skribenter inom olika samhälls- områden har fått i uppdrag av att ge sin syn på vad som bidragit till att varit så framgångsrikt och framförallt vad som behöver beaktas för att vi ska fortsätta att vara det framöver. Antologin innehåller sexton texter som tillsam- mans ger en bild av transformationen, vilka möjligheter och utma- ningar vi står inför, vad vi behöver förhålla oss till och utveckla samt vad som kan komma att ha betydelse . Artiklarna i antologin belyser dessa breda frågor ur olika perspektiv och ger sammantaget en bild av vad som bör beaktas när det gäller användning av digitaliseringens möjligheter framöver. Digitalise- har inte tagit ställning till artiklarnas innehåll utan varje författare ansvarar för innehållet i sitt bidrag. Vår förhoppning är att antologin ska inspirera till tankar, samtal och att fler deltar i en bred debatt om den samhällsutveckling vi befinner oss i och hur vi tillsammans kan arbeta för att använda digitaliseringens möjligheter på bästa sätt. Det är nu vi har möjlig- het att ta tillvara på möjligheterna för att skapa det samhälle vi vill ha. Deconstructing the digital economy – progressing towards a holistic ICT- policy framework factors driving the digital economy Digitalisation has transformed business and society in the past 15 years. The world's Internet-connected population has grown from essentially zero in 1995 to 2 billion today.1 New Internet based businesses are born, such as the Internet based communica- tions company Skype or the music streaming service Spotify. How- ever, the transformation covers so much more than the traditional ICT-producing sector. The new technology transforms many exist- ing industries, including retailing, media, and entertainment. Along with many new opportunities, the digital economy has also brought some new threats. These include threats to businesses, such as breach of intellectual property and the security issues of connected devices, as well as threats to individuals, such as privacy concerns. Today, technological change is happening in a time span that is highly compressed compared to what has been the case before. New technologies develop and mature – but much faster and even more profoundly than in the past. The rapidly developing digital technologies – among them mobility, analytics and cloud storage and application services – enable unprecedented levels of connec- tivity for citizens as well as businesses worldwide. We have come to the point where the digital transformation encompasses collabora- 1 PEITZ & WALDFOGEL The Handbook of the Digital Economy. tion throughout the value chain covering co-development, co- creation, co-production, and co-distribution. Prospering in this new connected environment requires new capabilities that challenge established norms and blurs organizational boundaries. It will be critical to open up to external influences, expand partnerships and accelerate digital investments, the sooner, the better. To better understand the deepening impact of digital technologies in the economy describes the transformation like this: in 1967 Mr. the computer makes no decisions; it only out orders. It's a total moron, and therein lies its strength. It forces us to think, to set the criteria. The stupider the tool, the brighter the has to be. In 2015 the world is a very different place. There are numerous examples where software outperforms people. learning has leapt forward and the debate about computers as complements or substitutes for human labour has been renewed. Many of the jobs that had once seemed the sole province of humans – including those of pathologists, geologists, and law clerks – can now be performed by computers.2 So, what leadership actions will digital success? How will new technologies impact societies, organizations and industries? What can organizations and policy makers do today to be as com- petitive as possible? In particular, which priorities and actions can set the stage for a successful digital journey? To discuss future growth and competitiveness, monitoring, and understanding the role of ICTs in the broader economy is a priority. But, the digital economy is somewhat illusive. ’s concept of deconstruction we suggest that there is a de- constructive force “always already” at work within our description of the digital economy.3 Whenever you think you get close to the digital part of the economy do not be surprised if it slips away. It is as if a destructive force is somehow embedded, especially in the statistical evidence, thus also in our text. Following ’s suggestion on how to deconstruct we engage firms in memory work i.e. they describe how they do business digitally. Strategic principles for competing in the digital age, 2014a. IT transformation since the 1960s. , 84–85. 3DERRIDA, J. Of grammatology, , Press. further our understanding of the digital economy we need to keep on deconstructing the activities performed in the very firms that do digital business. ICT changes economies and societies – Swedish case study For quite some time has been at the forefront of digital transformation. The changes occur in government as well as in business. was an early adopter of broadband and has a large number of advanced users. The number of Internet users in increased from 90 percent of adults in 2005 to about 95 percent in 2013, reaching 100 percent among young people. Swedish users are getting more and more advanced. Statistics shows that in 2014 almost 5.4 million used some form of cloud service. Today it is mostly teenagers and young adults who listen to music or watch- ing films via streaming services, such as Spotify or Netflix. At the heart of Swedish society is a tradition of innovation that has facilitated the rapid adoption of new technologies. Citizens continuously adopt new behaviours to exploit connected devices and applications, encouraging entrepreneurs to experiment with new products and business models. The result is a fertile environ- ment for digital development and for securing prominent positions in global value chains. The transition towards a global digital economy changes the way firms around the world do business. In 2012, 77 percent of enterprises in the area had a website and 21 percent sold their products digitally. 80 percent of enterprises used e-government services.4 To understand the structural impact of ICTs and the changing nature of competition in the digital economy, it is important to consider the digitalisation journey that Swedish industry has em- barked on. However, the digital economy extends beyond busi- nesses as it also includes individuals and societies. This broader view encompasses new themes such as the rapid growth of social networks, e-government and user-created content. 4 Forthcoming book, Digital Economy Outlook . to a wide range of policy issues such as how ICT contributes to social outcomes. Although was an early adopter of broadband and has many advanced users, broadband is only a stepping stown towards growth, not necessarily a growth driver on its own. The ICT sector accounts for almost 50 percent of the productivity increase Investment in ICT goods and services is an important driver of growth. The increased importance of ICT in driving Swedish productivity growth, has in part overturned ’s paradox that “computers were found everywhere except the productivity statistics”.5 Following growth accounting method,6 new evidence shows that the contribution of the ICT-sector between 1995 and 2005 amounted to 32 percent of the total productivity growth. Contrary to ’s expectations for the future, and despite eco- nomic development fluctuations, the impact and importance of the digitalisation process has increased in the economy. Between the years 2006–2013 the ICT contribution to the economy has grown larger. During the same period the ICT-sector contributed 42 per- cent to the total productivity growth.7 Although many studies have found that IT actually plays an important role in productivity growth, it is also important to note that others have argued that IT contributes only a small share of the whole pie of a country’s productivity growth.8 Still, even though it is not evident in the statistical evidence, the really significant growth-potential becomes evident when the entire private sector reaps the benefits of the digitalisation process. All sectors invest in new technology but so far, almost exclusively the We’d better watch out. 6EDQUIST, H. Hur länge förblir IKT avgörande för svensk produktivitetsutveck- ling? Ekonomisk debatt, Vol 37. How digitalisation drives productivity and competitiveness in . 8SOLOW, R. Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312–320. THE DEMISE OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH: RESTATEMENT, REBUTTAL, AND REFLECTIONS. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES. ICT-sector is showing productivity gains. The new data demon- that it is the ICT-sector that displays these productivity gains during the period 1995–2013. The contribution from all other sectors is negligible.9 This ICT-sector generated productivity growth is geographically linked to , where the ICT-sector is mainly located. The calculations show that between 1995 and 2005 accounted for 50 percent of the productivity growth. A change occurs between 2006 and 2013 and the contribution for Upper and Eastern Central is now noticeable. A broader and deeper adoption of ICT technologies in non-ICT private and public sector is where the greatest future productivity potential exists for the Swedish economy to benefit from technol- ogy enabled economic growth. ICTs need to be implemented in business processes together with other assets to drive performance, and need to be analysed in the broader context of their contri- bution to aggregate jobs and economic performance. To this end, business and individual surveys on ICTs need to be reviewed regu- larly to take into account the role of ICTs, in particular broadband, as enablers of innovation and contributors to business performance and consumer welfare. Digital business across the economy The emergence and intensive utilization of ICT heavily affect the opportunities and efficiency of how firms produce and provide goods and services. The uptake of ICT throughout the economy has the potential to enhance productivity gains across industry sectors, even though statistical evidence fails to show that the relevance of ICT in the Swedish economy extends beyond the ICT sector. In addition, the ongoing digital transformation can extend market reach and reduce operational costs of companies. Further- more, it induces changes in business processes and provides oppor- tunities for setting up new businesses and jobs. 9 TILLVÄXTANALYS 2015. How digitalisation drives productivity and competitiveness in . A growing research literature addresses the rise of digital busi- ness across the economy. Three categories of change become visi- ble in the literature (Figure 1). First, there is a growing body of literature that analyse global trends, such as big data analytics and the Internet of Things.10 Beyond Internet firms, the rest of the ICT sector recognise smart and interconnected devices forming the Internet of Things as well as big data as a new business oppor- tunity. Some estimates suggest that the global market for “big data technology and services” will grow from billion in 2010 to Second, ICT enabled global production networks or so called global value chains have been greatly facilitated by rapid advances in ICT.12 The international dispersion of corporate activities requires coordination of their locations. Cheaper and more reliable ICT-enabled communication has decreased the cost of co-ordi- nating complex activities over long distances both within and between companies. Finally, in a short amount of time, the use of ICT has gone from concerning a few specialists to permeating entire firms.13 However, organizational complements are considered crucial to ICT’s influence on productivity, which are presently proven even to pin down with statistical evidence. An illustrative case of how ICT drives business performance can be essential when gov- ernments improve their identification of policy priorities in order to drive growth. 10BRYNJOLFSSON & MCAFEE 2014. The second age, Work, progess, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies, , , , , E., HAMMERBACHER, J. & , B. Competing through data: Three experts offer their game plans. , 36–47, BRYNJOLFSSON, E., HOFMANN, P. & , J. Cloud Computing and Electricity: Beyond the Utility Model. Communications of the ACM, 53, 32–34. Science, Technology and . 12IVARSSON, I. & ALVSTAM, C. Linkages and Supplier Upgrading in Global Value Chains: The Case of Swedish TNCs in Emerging Markets. Competition & Change, 13, 368–388, , I. & ALVSTAM, C. Upgrading in global value-chains: a case study of technology-learning among IKEA- suppliers in and Southeast . , 11, 731–752. 13ARH, T., BLAŽIČ, B. & DIMOVSKI, V. 2012. The impact of technology-enhanced organisational learning on business performance: An empirical study. Journal for Studies, 17, 369–383, KOWALKOWSKI, C., , D. & , H. ICT as a catalyst for service business orientation. , 28, 506–513, TAMBE, P., HITT, L. & BRYNJOLFSSON, E. : How External Information Practices Affect Innovation and Productivity. Management Science, 58, 843–859. Source: Tillväxtanalys, 2015OECD and Tillväxtanalys (2014a). It could be argued that success in the digital economy where com- petitors from all over the world can emerge seemingly overnight will require policymakers and business leaders to go back to the drawing board to identify and build capabilities in their spheres of influence. Value creation in digital businesses – Illustrative case studies Digitalisation has the potential to disrupt and transform even traditional sectors such as mining, transport, tourism and taxi services thereby boosting economic competitiveness and productivity growth. In manufacturing, companies are increasingly using sensors mounted on products, taking advantage of the Internet of Things. Sensor data is used to monitor and optimize the operations of, for example, a new truck and for after sales services including pre- ventive maintenance operations. Despite the focus on the ICT-producing sector by researchers relatively attention is given to the ICT-using sector. Current evidence confirms that the ICT-producing sector drives growth but fails to show how digitalisation drives growth throughout the economy. To explore how ICT influences the way firms outside the ICT-sector do business the for Growth Policy Analysis (Tillväxtanalys) conducted five illustrative case studies. The cases demonstrate the depth and complexity of the digital journey the companies have embarked on. In an attempt to extend our knowledge of how digitalisation impacts firms outside the ICT-sector the cases explore the follow- ing areas; a) the digitalisation of day-to-day operations, b) digi- talisation that enables participation in global value chains, and c) digital business opportunities based on big data and the Internet of Things (Table 1). Source: Tillväxtanalys (2015). A meta-analysis of the five cases supports the view that the digitali- sation journey has reached and now become a part of core business. During the interviews all informants describe how core business activities such as product development, production and marketing is undergoing re-structuring i.e. The digital economy is moving fast and the pressure to change is evident as the companies describe that it does not take long before old business models begin to fail. It seems that new digital business oppor- tunities force the companies to change to stay competitive. In addition, the companies make significant use of internally generated data from day-to-day operations as well as externally generated customer data. New technology offers new ways to communicate with which also makes the digital journey more customer-centric. The studied companies create an electronic relationship with either supplier or end-customer depending on whether it is a B-to-B or a B-to-C operation. tionship is then used to customise offers throughout the product lifecycle and generate new revenue streams as well as cutting costs. Although the cases are very heterogeneous and cover traditional industry as well as the service sector there are commonalities. Informants describe that their ICT investments offer substantial cost cutting potential. To some extent they have managed to cut costs already but most of the cost cutting benefits are yet to be realised. Evidence confirms that in recent years technologies that drive profit and enable cost reduction have become cheaper and more widely used. The companies’ digital journey shows the following similarities: