sou · GRB380d1 · 2004-01-01 00:00:00 — Here, we refer to such aspects as whether ERDD measures are being applied to the right sectors (in subject terms and in terms of research, development and demonstration) and with the right balance between sectors. The ERDD Commission has opted to engage in analysis at a relatively broad level, and has not aspired to examine in detail activities in the individual research programmes and projects included in the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme. Within the framework of the programme, highly valuable and useful work is being done, and relevant skills and abilities are also being established. A substantial proportion of energy researchers consider that their research findings have commercial potential. However, the project leaders engaged in ERDD projects often do not expect results to be realised until five or ten years have passed. This underlines the fact that it is essential to have the right expectations and not believe that a certain quantity of resources devoted to ERDD can rapidly bring about system restructuring. Allocation among research, development and demonstration and between technology sectors One basic purpose of providing support for ERDD is to help new and more efficient energy technology to reach the market. Close, collaboration between the research community and the business sector is therefore important. In terms of their distribution among research, development and demonstration, the Commission believes that activities in the programme have a relatively close connection with the business sector. For example, more than 50 per cent of the projects in the programme are headed by representatives of industry, and more than 70 per cent consist in applied research, development or demonstration. Moreover, experience of collaborating with the business sector is just as extensive among energy researchers as in other technical and scientific research fields. The Commission has found that there are problems of frag- mentation in the activities conducted within the framework of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme. efficient resource use would, according to the Commission, be attainable if ERDD inputs were concentrated in fewer sectors than today. At the same time, both the results of ERDD and the restructuring of the energy system entail very long-term processes. Accordingly, it may be difficult to determine at present which technologies are best in the long term. Even if the programme is concentrated, there is therefore reason to maintain a relatively high degree of flexibility in the central governments measures. Given these considerations, the Commission believes that it would be appropriate to divide the measures more clearly into two categories: Sectors where retaining a minimal national capacity, e.g. sufficient skills to be able to assimilate interesting ideas, may be enough. Sectors where , from a strategic perspective, should provide more substantial inputs, in both research and industrial terms. The sectors given priority should be those where (i) we have, or may be expected to establish, comparative advantages and critical mass in generating knowledge, (ii) we have or may be expected to establish functioning industrial clusters and (iii) we have the potential for national competitive advantages, and (iv)sectors that can make a contribution to the attainment of energy-policy objectives. The sectors must also be chosen on the basis of the overall strategies adopted for the restructuring of the energy system. The Commission proposes that the be assigned to investigate how a clearer programme focus should, in practical terms, be achieved. This assignment should include analysing the detailed content of priority criteria; which sectors should be given priority; who is best able to set priorities, etc. The detailed aspects of measures to be taken in individual technological sectors should as far as possible, in the Commissions view, be entrusted to public agencies. These considerations should, strictly speaking, have the purpose of the programme (contributing to the restructuring of the energy system) as their premise, and not a priori be confined to certain individual technologies. Instead, it should be possible for all the conceivable alternatives (including those that are not currently included in the ERDD programme) to be evaluated in relation to one another in terms of their capacity to contribute to energy-system restructuring. The 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme emphasises applied research and the need for ideas thereby generated to culminate, through collaboration with the business sector in development and demonstration inputs, in commercially viable technologies on a The degree of commercialisation of activities conducted in the programme is, however, relatively low, at least with respect to alternative energy production. In part, this has structural causes. For example, in the energy sector major investments, in which any return is far ahead in time, are often involved. Moreover, the Governments ambitions to introduce new energy technology are not always supported by market forces. If the state continues to seek to restructure the energy system by concentrating on ERDD whose results are ultimately to culminate in practical applications and reach a market, it is reasonable for the state to assume special responsibility for supporting commercialisation of the ideas, products etc that emerge. In its report, the Commission discusses several conceivable measures aimed at promoting commercialisa- tion: The Commission proposes that it should be emphasised more clearly in the assignment that this agency is to take into account the benefits of ERDD on the market. One implication of this is that planning of commercialisation measures should be included in the Agencys assessments of ERDD projects. In addition, there may be reason to entrust the with responsibility for ensuring that the projects considered to have commercial potential are also given sufficient support to put their marketability to the test. role would then be primarily to promote the commercialisation process and serve as a link to other actors. should thus not establish a major in-house organisation for this task but, rather, use external skills as far as possible. The question of whether giving the Agency this responsibility is appropriate should be analysed further. The Commission proposes that the be assigned, in consultation with the () and , to perform this analysis. If it proves appropriate to give the this responsibility, it should be possible for funds included in the long-term programme to be used for this purpose. The central government should be able to make more use of private investors willingness to contribute venture capital. The Commission has encountered some interest among private investors in establishing a venture-capital fund in the energy sector. However, political adoption of market measures is probably required to induce private investors to contribute. This could be done, for example, by the central government providing a certain portion of the funds capital. Quality and relevance of ERDD Quality refers, in this case, to how well activities are performed, i.e. broadly speaking scientific quality. Relevance, on the other hand, is a matter of the usefulness of activities. Since activities in the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme were largely conceived as being ultimately convertible into commercially viable technologies on a market, relevance in this case is very much a matter of how the activities benefit the business sector. Previous evaluations of parts of the programme indicate that the scientific quality of the programmes and projects financed to date is, in general, high. On the other hand, these evaluations show that the relevance of activities is somewhat less convincing. However, as stated above, the ERDD Commission considers that activities within the scope of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme have relatively close links with the business sector and may therefore be reasonably assumed to have a relatively high degree of relevance. Indications of this are the energy researchers own above- mentioned experience of collaboration with the business sector and their view of the commercial potential of the projects. All in all, the Commission considers that activities within the framework of the Programme are of reasonable quality and relevance. The present-day organisation of ERDD (by which we mean the in which activities are organised at universities and colleges, the forms in which collaboration with the business sector takes place, etc) exhibits no fundamental defects. But for the purpose of establishing critical masses in the R&D fields that are relevant, efforts should nonetheless be made, in the Commissions opinion, to bring about an organisational concentration of activities conducted within the scope of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme. One starting point should be that the R&D resources should be concentrated to a higher degree in places where the research community and the business sector can interact easily. One form of collaboration that appears to function well and, in the Com- missions opinion, is worth engaging in further, is . However, the question of whether further efforts regarding should focus on the five centres that already exist in the energy sector, or whether new centres should be started in other areas of the energy sector, should be kept open. should be given the task of deciding on the nature of further measures relating to in the energy sector. is too small a country to have critical masses in very many ERDD sectors. should, instead, work for an effective division of labour between different countries, with the premise that ERDD measures should be applied where the comparative advantages are largest. The Commission considers that the ERDD programme should afford opportunities to establish, with suitable partner countries, bilateral and multilateral joint projects in research, development and demonstration. The Commission therefore proposes assigning the to survey the strengths and weaknesses of various potential partner countries. In a future ERDD programme and its management, changes in international environment such as the Programme should be taken into account. Regarding the duration of the programme, the Commissions impression is that the relatively long term of the present programme (seven years) has been favourable. One advantage is that it appears to have generated better planning scope and continuity in activities. The Commission considers that a future programme, too, should run for relatively many years. However, the Commission believes that there should be scope for reviewing the programme, its orientation, etc after half the term and that the should then analyse and report to the Government on the results of the programme. One option might be to let the programme cover two three-year periods with a mid-term evaluation, i.e. a total of six years. The Commission has not sought to define exactly the scale in monetary terms of a forthcoming programme. The present-day level is probably reasonable, on the whole. In the Commissions opinion, an overview of the three ordinances and appropriations governing the financing of ERDD should be carried out for the purpose of introducing a collective appropriation. This could bring about greater flexibility in the administration of the programme. This overview must take into account such issues as whether combining the various types of project in one appropriation is compatible with EU state-aid regulations. Administration of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme The four agencies administration of the programme appears to have largely worked well, although there is room for improvement in such aspects as inter-agency coordination. Given that the Commission considers that ERDD measures should be concentrated in fewer sectors, the Commission nonetheless considers that the impact of the programme could be greater if, for the administration of state ERDD measures, a single arena were created and relevant sectorial knowledge and analytical capacity concentrated therein. This is because giving an agency full responsibility should afford the best scope for assigning priorities between different sectors. The Commission therefore proposes making the solely responsible for the entire ERDD programme. Are the objectives of the programme being fulfilled? In assessing the results attained within the framework of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme, the Commission has taken as its primary starting point the objectives that were explicitly defined for the programme, the overall aims of energy research and the objectives in the official appropriation document that relate to the intrinsic scientific quality and relevance of the research. Altogether, these objectives mean that ERDD should: Reduce the costs of energy technology, and introduce new energy technology based on renewable types of energy. During the next 10–15 years, bring about a substantial increase in electricity and heat production from renewable energy sources, and develop commercially profitable technology for boosting energy efficiency. Accumulate scientific and technical knowledge and skills in higher education institutions and the business sector for development and the restructuring of the energy system. Help to create stable preconditions for a competitive business sector and for revitalisation and development of Swedish industry. Contribute to more extensive energy, environmental and climate cooperation in the Baltic region. Ensure that the intrinsic scientific value of research is high and that the measures taken are relevant. Given the wording of these objectives, the Commission considers that they may be largely said to have been fulfilled. Activities in the programme may thus be said to be of reasonable quality and relevance, while it is also justifiable to assert that ERDD, within the scope of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme, has helped to: (i)lower the costs of, and introduce, new energy technology based on renewable types of energy (ii)establish scientific and technical knowledge and skills in higher education institutions and in the business sector (iii)create stable preconditions for a competitive business sector and for revitalisation and development of Swedish industry (iv)expand joint efforts regarding energy, the environment and climate in the Baltic region. On the other hand, within the framework of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme, ERDD has not to any large extent contributed to scope during the next 10 15 years, [to] bring about a substantial increase in electricity and heat production from renewable energy sources, and develop commercially profitable technology for boosting energy efficiency. However, the objectives are generally worded in an imprecise (contribute to etc) and difficult to follow up. The Government should take the initiative in creating better scope for following up and evaluating the results from ERDD measures. Both the objectives themselves and the follow-up systems should, for example, be developed. Summary assessment of ERDD measures and their management As described by the Commission, work on ERDD within the scope of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme may be summarised as follows: The orientation of ERDD appears, broadly speaking, reasonable. Nonetheless, there are problems in the form, for example, of fragmentation and insufficient focus on commercialisation. The quality and relevance of ERDD appear, overall, to be reasonable. However, there is some doubt regarding relevance, especially concerning the capacity of ERDD to result in commercialisation. The organisation of ERDD shows no fundamental defects, although the Commission considers that there should be greater organisational concentration of R&D resources in order to establish critical masses to a larger extent in the R&D sectors that are relevant. The impact of the programme would, in the Commissions estimation, be greater if a single arena for administration of state ERDD measures were created. Simultaneously, regarding the administration of the programme, it should be pointed out that much of the work carried out by the four public agencies responsible appears to be going well. The objectives that are primarily relevant to an assessment of the results of the programme may be said to have been largely fulfilled. However, they are worded imprecisely and hard to follow up. The conclusion of this evaluation is that the ERDD Commission does not see any need to make any fundamental change in the scale of state ERDD measures. For the input resources to have a greater impact, however, the Commission thinks that improvements in ERDD and its management are attainable. Nevertheless, it should be possible for these improvements to take place mainly within the framework of the existing ERDD system. With the proposals put forward here, the Commission believes that ERDD should henceforth make a growing contribution to restructuring. between ERDD and other instruments important It is essential for ERDD measures to be harmonised with other instruments used to achieve restructuring of the energy system. Overall, this is a matter of the need for ERDD to be designed to fit in with instruments that shape the general framework conditions for enterprise and participants conduct, such as various types of taxes, charges or contributions, and support. In addition, it is a matter of the need to harmonise ERDD measures oriented towards the long term with the more short-term measures to stimulate restructuring. There may possibly also be reasons to integrate more instruments in a long-term ERDD programme. The Commission proposes that the be assigned to analyse, first, whether broadening the programme could possibly make the resources allocated by the state to these activities more effective, and, secondly, the specific in which such integration should take place in such cases. The Commissions views on general preconditions for restructuring Considering that ERDD, in the Commissions opinion, cannot constitute the primary driving force for the restructuring of the energy system, the Commission has also sought to identify and express its view of what in a broader perspective than ERDD more comprehensive restructuring of the energy system may require. Since the Commissions assignment was, above all, a matter of analysing the ERDD conducted within the scope of the 1997 Long-Term Energy Programme, the analysis and proposals in this part of the report are general in nature. What does restructuring of the energy system mean? Restructuring entails altering the existing composition of an energy system so that it is composed differently. Under the current energy policy, the energy system must be made sustainable in the long term. This may be said to involve balancing ecological, economic, social and cultural aspects, now and in the future, and enhancing equality in the distribution of resources. Four especially relevant dimensions of sustainability are identifiable: (1) ecological sustainability, (2) secure supply, (3) competitive energy prices and (4) opportunities for development and revitalisation of the business sector. Attempting to define the exact final stage at which the energy system, once and for all, would attain sustainability is pointless, since all energy use has repercussions on the environment, the economy, society and culture, and there is also dynamic interaction among these aspects. Nevertheless, the ERDD Commission interprets the situation that is desirable in the long term as being one in which energy needs in the various sectors of society are entirely met by production forms that are sustainable in climatic terms.2 However, to reach this point we have a very long way to go. An energy system based entirely on renewable types of energy cannot, in the Commissions view, be expected to become a reality even over the next 50 years, for reasons that include the following: In the present-day situation and probably for some years to come the renewable alternative energy sources that must be introduced in order to make the restructuring feasible are often not competitive, and/or not available on the large scale required if the entire energy system is to be restructured. The energy system is relatively resistant to change (although this varies from one part of the system to another). The scope for state intervention and the central governments power to command the restructuring has diminished, owing to such developments as deregulation of the electricity and gas markets; increased technical integration of, for example, the electricity system in a European structure; EU membership and other internationalisation; and new regulations governing competition. 2 Other environmental-quality objectives must also be taken into account. What measures does comprehensive restructuring require? Two requirements are particularly important to the success of a strategy for long-term restructuring. First, the Governments restructuring ambitions and the preconditions applying to the restructuring must be credible and they must therefore, as far as possible, be made sustainable over time. Secondly, a number of measures must be implemented in the near future, with a long-term objective that is well-defined and familiar as the starting point. , we pinpoint some measures of this kind that could constitute a first step in the right direction. Vision that clearly identifies restructuring as a national challenge In the Commissions estimation, for purposeful and credible restructuring work to be feasible, there must first be a clearly formulated overall vision of what the restructuring and an energy system that is sustainable in the long term should entail. A vision is not a practical action programme. But with a vision as the point of departure, it should be easier to develop a more detailed short-term strategy for the restructuring of the energy system. We wish to emphasise that one of the main purposes of a vision and the work that formulating it involves should be to create, establish and inject life into long-term thinking in the restructuring work. As a basis for defining the vision, wide-ranging analytical work should be initiated concerning the most probable development scenario(s) for the energy system. In this kind of analysis, which the might be the appropriate agency to direct, it is essential to get a broad variety of actors involved. The short-term strategy for restructuring must be so open as to enable measures to be flexibly adapted to changes in the international environment and any technological breakthroughs etc that take place in the short term, although the long-term restructuring objective should remain unchanged. A Swedish strategy for restructuring must also take into consideration the fact that the conditions of our energy policy are shaped largely and increasingly in international collaboration, especially at level. Swedish restructuring work in the years ahead will increasingly need to take place in cooperation with other countries. This applies both to energy enterprises and to companies engaged in technological development. This makes it difficult to deviate too far from the surrounding world. The restructuring work must therefore include a Northern European perspective as well. As the Commission sees it, it is vital for further work to restructure the energy system to be imbued with a positive, proactive force for change, and for this also to be reflected in the proposed vision. The ambition should be for restructuring to be perceived as an opportunity of boosting growth, developing the Swedish business sector and improving Swedish competitiveness, instead of as a reluctant retreat from the present-day energy system.