sou · GPB32d1 · 2002-01-01 00:00:00 — to review the need for action to achieve greater efficiency in our use of natural resources and to assess the need for effi- ciency goals in this respect. to study and assess the connection between economic growth, the use of natural resources and environmental impact. The committees directive emphasises that assessment is to be based on the scrutiny and evaluation of estimates and assumptions made concerning, among other things, the Factor 10 concept. has viewed the scrutiny of the numerous concepts and measurement methods that have been developed as part of the dis- cussion on the management of natural resources as an important part of its assignment. This review has been performed in connec- tion with a discussion on market failures, which may justify state intervention concerning the management of natural resources. The committees point of departure has been that resource man- agement policies are aimed at achieving sustainable development in a global perspective. The discussion in the committee report osten- sibly covers matters relating to ecological sustainability. Resource efficiency can be defined as material and energy pro- ductivity. In other words, it is a measure of productivity similar to labour productivity (production per working hour) and aims to describe natural resource use per unit of production or final con- sumption. It is therefore basically a question of natural resource management – the production factor land in classic economic terminology, which includes factors such as clean air and water as well as assets, productive land and ecosystems. A lack of data however means that resource management has mostly to be described one step further along the production chain, by focusing on both the use of raw materials and different energy as well as emissions/discharges of waste products. Resource management problems and measurement methods The market economy displays shortcomings when it comes to the use of natural resources and the distribution of resources among generations. The most important problem lying closest to hand concerns renewable resources. In several respects, biological diver- sity is under threat due to overuse and emissions and valuable ge- netic data may therefore be lost. The risk of a sudden shortage of and other non-renewable resources may however be re- garded as rather low. If such a situation should occur, the price of such resources would rise, triggering adjustment mechanisms such as material recovery and substitution. In some cases, however, such as regarding fossil fuels, a reduction in use will be forced upon us at an earlier stage due to the risk of environmental impact. The structure of material and energy use is the determining fac- tor with regard to environmental impact and the possible exhaus- tion of resources. The contents of many products (concerning haz- ardous chemicals, for example) go relatively unchecked with regard to their components and the environmental impact they cause. Policy development in this area requires the accumulation of con- siderable knowledge, not least when it comes to the damage costs of different types of material use and the spread of waste products. Measurements of environmental impact are needed to be able to prioritise actions to improve the state of the environment and at the same time weigh up the pros and cons in relation to other goals in society. There are both advantages and disadvantages in aggre- gating the various effects and producing some kind of total meas- urement. One advantage might be that such measurements are both easy to communicate and unequivocal. The disadvantages are that a great deal of information is lost along the way and that the weighing-up process, which often includes value judgements, is left to experts. It is left up to the recipients (e.g. political decision- makers) to interpret more unprocessed measurements, such as the majority of indicators. Both total measurements, summarised in e.g. or monetary terms, and environmental and/or social indicators are among the measurements described and discussed in the committee report. It is the committees opinion that Factor 10 and other goal definitions and measurements that are based on a summation of natural resource use in physical terms do not make any significant contribution to the de- velopment of sustainable development policies. Concerning the monetary measurements such as the value of natural capital, environmentally adjusted GDP and national capital, the main problem is being able to obtain an accurate picture of the types of environmental damages caused for example by different types of emissions and attaching a relevant value to each of these. These measurements have the greatest potential for development. At the same time, the Inspectorates risk index proves that it is possible to assess different effects in terms of units other than just money in a meaningful way and that it is the weighting that is the key to developing an effective policy. Economic growth, resource use and environmental impact There are two forces that partly counteract each other concerning the environmental impact of economic growth; the increasing effi- ciency in the use of resources and growing end-user demand for products and services when incomes increase. Up to now, the vol- ume effect of rising incomes has been the stronger, i.e. resource- efficiency has been eaten up by increased consumption. The so-called environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis implies that environmental problems in different countries (e.g. emissions of substances that affect the environment) tend to increase up to a certain per capita income level and then decrease as income rises further. The studies described in the committee report do not offer any support in general for this hypothesis. However, connections resembling such a curve can be perceived in certain cases on a more detailed level, such as regarding sulphur emissions. There are two competing hypotheses concerning the connection between environmental policy and competitiveness. firstly, that a tightening of environmental require- ments/regulations in one country might lead to production being transferred to other countries with more relaxed re- quirements. secondly that tighter environmental requirements can strengthen a countrys competitiveness by stimulating innova- tion, accelerating the development of technology and efficient resource use. None of the empirical studies referred to have been able to lend any significant support to either of these hypotheses. It is consistently pointed out that the costs of environmental protection are generally too small compared to other costs to influence decisions about where investments are made and where production is located. It should be noted however that all these studies have had the currently applicable environmental requirements as their starting-point, when there are in practice no particularly significant differences between environmental requirements among countries. Raw material consumption per unit produced (end-user demand or value added at prices) in has decreased signifi- cantly since the middle of the 1950s, especially its use as input goods in business sector output. Considered over the whole pe- riod, this represents a reduction of approximately 50 per cent. At the same time, however, production volume in the business sector has more than tripled. This means that raw material use in 1996, calculated as absolute values (i.e. as fixed prices), was about 50 per cent higher than in 1957. In other words, the increase in material productivity has not been sufficient to neutralise the volume effect (the effect of growth on raw material use). When assessing the sustainability aspect, an important question is to what extent increased scarcity of raw materials – manifested in rising relative prices of raw materials – spurs on material efficiency and better material productivity. Looking at development in over the last forty years provides us with any an- swers to this question. The relative price of raw materials has, on average, actually fallen during the period. Comparing the periods 1957–1980 and 1980–1996 may support the claim that the relative price development has had a certain effect. During the first period (1957–1980), when the relative prices of raw materials increased, material productivity rose by nearly two per cent per year. After 1980, when the relative price of raw materials fell markedly, the equivalent rate of increase was only about one per cent per year. Changes in the composition of business sector output have been the dominant cause of increased material productivity. These changes have led to a shift towards the production of goods and services which are both labour-intensive and contain a high degree of knowledge. The most prominent trend concerning energy use in over the last 30 years has been the transition from oil to electricity use. The transport sector provides the exception, however, where energy supply is still dominated by products. The transition from oil to electricity, combined with the redis- tribution of energy production towards a greater proportion of nu- clear power, makes it difficult to measure and describe the total energy use trend unequivocally. Both changes mean that the degree of efficiency in the supply stage is dropping (conversion losses are on the increase). If we exclude the conversion losses associated with nuclear power production from our calculations, energy con- sumption in has basically remained unchanged between 1970 and 1998. If we include them, we can see an increase between 1970 and 1998 of 35 per cent. Energy productivity in industry has risen by 1,5 per cent per year. In the iron and steel industry, productivity has risen at a much faster rate than the average. Here, changes in product com- position towards a greater proportion of high-grade steel has helped to increase both energy and material productivity. Clearly the weakest development in energy productivity over the period in question has been in the transport sector, which includes transport effected by households. the last few decades, the trend has been for transports share of total energy use in – and obviously its even higher share of oil consumption and carbon dioxide emissions – to increase at a very rapid pace. A number of studies have been presented over the last few dec- ades, pointing to major potential energy savings being achievable through the more efficient use of energy by both companies and households. The claim has also been made that many energy-saving measures are never implemented despite them being economically profitable both for the individual and for society at large. As these assessments of potential savings have constituted the basis of en- ergy policy, it is important to scrutinise the methods and statistics on which they are founded. concludes that these assessments possess major shortcomings. Above all, there is a con- siderable lack of cost estimates and where such estimates exist, they are incomplete. Carbon dioxide emissions in are now about seven times what they were 100 years ago. On average, emissions have in- creased during the 20th century at the same rate as total production of goods and services. There are, however, major differences be- tween the various periods of the century. With the exception of a marked drop during the First and Second World Wars, the rate of increase has been reasonably even (about 2–3 per cent per year) between 1900 and 1960. From 1960 onwards, there was a dramatic rise of more than 150 per cent over a ten-year period, which repre- sents an annual increase of nearly ten per cent. The main reason for this was the dramatic expansion of private motoring, though in- dustrial emissions also went up considerably over the same period. During the 1980s, emissions decreased considerably in connection with the emergence of oil substitutes within industry, housing and the service sector. From the end of the 1980s onwards, carbon di- oxide emissions seem to have stabilised. The production of goods for export is now responsible for about 40 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions compared to 15–20 per cent prior to 1950. Developments in export trade over the last few decades have not led to carbon dioxide emissions being transferred from to other countries – indeed the opposite tends to be true. Thanks to our relatively clean industrial production, export trade also helps its trade partners to keep down their envi- ronmental impact which would otherwise be considerably more significant concerning sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide. Resource management in a forward-looking perspective has carried out model calculations regarding the connection between growth and natural resource use in a time per- spective up to the year 2030. Despite the many objections that can be raised against the method used to make such calculations, they still illustrate some important prerequisites for natural resource management and environmental policy over the next few decades. If we continue to pursue current environmental policy, for ex- ample when it comes to the tax rates for energy and emissions – the use of raw materials and energy as well as environmentally harmful emissions will in all likelihood rise considerably. We can- not expect a spontaneous downturn if policy remains unchanged. The possible occurrence of an environmental Kuznets curve should instead be seen as the result of peoples increased prefer- ences for the environment manifesting itself in more environment- promoting policies. A considerable tightening of environmental policy – for example carbon dioxide taxation – is required if we wish to achieve reduc- tions in fossil fuel use and environmentally harmful emissions in absolute terms over the next few decades. If such as change in pol- icy can be effected gradually and in cooperation with other coun- tries, it should not have any dramatic effects on business sector structure or households consumption capabilities. report also contains the results of two case studies on resource management and potential efficiency gains in the forestry and fisheries sectors. One conclusion is that extending the rotation period of land would improve the ca- pacity to absorb carbon dioxide and increase lichen growth. An in- creased proportion of deciduous trees would both have a positive effect on biological diversity and improve conditions for recreation in Swedish , especially those adjacent to urban areas. The other case study looks at the problems of resource manage- ment with regard to both the utilisation of fish stocks in general and fishing in in particular. The results shed light in par- ticular on those problems caused by the absence of defined property rights for the use of natural resources. The tendency towards over- fishing and the consequent loss of genetic material present a serious problem nationally and in particular globally. There is an obvious need for political intervention, primarily through the allocation of fishing quotas. The situation is made worse by many countries awarding sub- sidies to their fishermen. In 1998, the Swedish fishing industrys share of value added was only –7 million. On the other hand, the total value of caught for recreation is estimated at between and 50 million per year. As we consider the of the extinction of wild , there is also reason for us to contemplate the so- called existence and preservation value associated with wild . being prepared to pay about every year roughly equals the salmon-fishing industrys (sea fisheries) total contribu- tion to GDP. definitions and policy levers Swedish environmental policy has been gradually built up over the last 30–40 years. It consists of a complex system of measures af- fecting price, regulations and the provision of resources both on the state and the municipal levels. Environmental policy measures have been successful in many ar- eas. Emissions from major point-sources have been reduced con- siderably. The expansion of waste-water treatment plants has stemmed eutrophication in lakes and watercourses. air qual- ity has improved to a great extent, due to investment in district heating facilities and measures directed at vehicles and fuels, among The situation in regarding many types of envi- ronmental impact has improved over the last few decades, whereas it has continued to deteriorate globally. For example, total emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise relatively quickly on a global scale, but Swedish emission levels have been fairly stable over the last few years (and have decreased considerably in a 30-year perspective). Levels of certain toxic and eco-toxic chemicals are however rising both internationally and in . As part of its assignment to look at political aspects, the com- mittee has studied two policy areas in particular: eco-cycle adapta- tion policy and so-called environmentally harmful subsidies. Con- cerning eco-cycle adaptation policy, the committee agrees with the assessment made by the parliament auditors. that the environmental gains made as a result of the introduc- tion of producer responsibility need to be followed up in a better way, and that the basis of the Governments decisions on new recovery targets must be improved. The review of Swedish subsidies that have a harmful effect on the environment, carried out by the and the National Audit Office, should continue. The results should form the basis for reassessing the subsidies considering their possible negative effects on the environment. There may also be a need to look at the existence of environmentally harmful taxes. A main conclusion reached by the committee that is not appro- priate to set up explicit resource efficiency targets, neither con- cerning the economy as a whole, in specific areas, nor within indi- vidual industries. Both environmental impact and the possible ex- haustion of resources are determined by the extraction and disper- sion of natural resources in absolute terms. A reduction is there- fore just as valuable, whether it is achieved as a result of modified trends in consumption or by more resource-efficient and environ- mentally friendly technology. A fundamental task of environmental policy can be worded thus: to achieve a so-called internalisation of the costs of the environmental impact of production and consumption, so that companies and households that cause it have to bear the full socio-economic costs. In many areas, there are probably critical load limits, i.e. envi- ronmental damage increases dramatically when certain (accumula- tive) emission levels are reached. Together with the uncertainty surrounding the consequences of environmental damage, this pro- vides good grounds for the of quantitative targets (maximum limits) for emissions and spread of various substances. Implementing policies involving fees or charges may be an uncer- tain way of meeting such quantitative targets. Instead, some form of rationing or allocation of quotas may be necessary. In some cases, it will be a question of introducing a ban, for example con- cerning the use and spread of hazardous substances. In other cases, it is a question of allocating rights, e.g. fishing quotas or carbon dioxide emission rights. To achieve the goal at the least possible cost, it is important to make these rights transferable. The quantitative targets must be reviewed as new knowledge and information emerge on the costs of environmental damage and/or of combative measures. If taxes and fees are used as policy levers, their level must be constantly adapted so that total extraction or emissions fulfil the maximum requirements. Policy should therefore aim to further develop these levers, which aim to internalise the environmental costs of natural resource use and to achieve targets in absolute terms for the reduction of certain kinds of emissions. Such policy levers contribute not only to greater re- source efficiency (improved material and energy productivity) but also to other adjustments which reduce the demands of production and consumption on natural resources and their negative impact on the environment. They enable established goals to be achieved at the least possible socio-economic cost. They also provide the best possible prerequisites for achieving the requirement for sustainability, which not only covers the ecological dimension but also social and economic aspects. Utredningens uppdrag kan sammanfattas i följande fyra punkter: Att genomföra en översyn av behovet av åtgärder för en bättre hushållning med och effektivare användning av naturresurser, inkl. bl.a. energiråvaror, i syfte att nå en hållbar utveckling i ett globalt perspektiv. Att därvid studera och bedöma sambanden mellan ekonomisk tillväxt, naturresursförbrukning och miljöpåverkan. Att arbeta med utgångspunkt i en analys av vilken grad av resurseffektivisering som är önskvärd och möjlig på lång och kort sikt. Bedömningen skall göras utifrån en granskning och utvärdering av de beräkningar och antaganden som gjorts i fråga om bland annat faktor 10-begreppet. Att bedöma behovet av effektivitetsmål på nationell nivå . Om utredaren finner det lämpligt skall han föreslå sådana mål, och dessutom föreslå ytterligare åtgärder som kan aktualiseras för t.ex. kommuner, näringsliv och med- borgarna, om så bedöms nödvändigt för att uppnå dessa mål. En viktig utgångspunkt för utredningens arbete är således, att poli- tik för resurshushållning ytterst syftar till att åstadkomma en håll- bar utveckling i ett globalt perspektiv. Det finns många definitioner av hållbar utveckling. Den mest kända, som också valts som ut- gångspunkt i utredningens direktiv, har sitt ursprung i Brundtland- kommissionens rapport common future : En hållbar utveckling kan definieras som en utveckling som tillfreds- ställer dagens behov utan att äventyra framtida generationers möjlig- heter att tillfredsställa sina behov. Det inrymmer två nyckelbegrepp: begreppet behov, särskilt de grundläggande behoven hos världens fattiga måste ges högsta prioritet, och tanken att teknologinivå och samhällsorganisation utgör begränsning- arna av miljöns möjligheter att tillfredsställa nuvarande och kom- mande behov. Definitionen av hållbar utveckling är således starkt inriktad på frå- gor om välfärdens fördelning, mellan generationer men också inom generationer, mellan rika och fattiga. Denna dubbla fördelnings- problematik betonas också starkt vid användning av begrepp sådana som faktor 10. Den andra huvudpunkten ovan – samband mellan ekonomisk tillväxt, naturresursförbrukning och miljöpåverkan – skall enligt direktiven belysas såväl i ett historiskt perspektiv som genom fram- åtriktade beräkningar. De senare kan belysa vilken naturresursan- vändning och miljöpåverkan som kan antas bli resultatet av olika antaganden om framtida ekonomisk tillväxt och utveckling av ekoeffektivitet. När det gäller utvecklingen i är miljö- räkenskaper och materialflödesstatistik, som har utvecklats inom bl.a. , viktiga informationskällor. Utred- ningens diskussion av sådana samband (i betänkandets del 2) kommer till stor del att få formen av inventering av existerande dataunderlag på området. Andra viktiga källor är input-outputstati- stik, energistatistik och s.k. historiska nationalräkenskaper. En viktig deluppgift i anslutning till den tredje frågan ovan är att inventera och granska de många begrepp och mätmetoder, som har lanserats i diskussionen av resurseffektivisering och naturresurs- hushållning. Redan begreppen resurseffektivitet och resurseffekti- visering behöver preciseras, och den begreppsdiskussionen förs i nästa avsnitt. Innebörd och relevans av begreppen faktor 4 och faktor 10 och till dem knutna mätmetoder behandlas i del 1 av be- tänkandet, liksom andra begrepp och mått med anknytning till na- turresurshushållning.