sou · GLB3132d1 · 1998-01-01 00:00:00 — For broiler chickens the average improvement of feed efficiency was about (Thomke and Elwinger, 1997a) which is similar to the figure arrived at in the extensive compilation undertaken by Kronseder (1993). In terms of improved digestibility and feed efficiency a fair estimate of the improvement by enzyme supplementation for young pigs and poultry according to the literature reviewed above would be approximately . Calculating with an average digestibility of organic matter in cereal-based diets for these animal species of , one arrives at a decrease in animal nutrient voidings by . Fuller (1992) recently redefined probiotic as a live microbial feed supplement that beneficially affects the host animal by improving its intestinal microbial balance. The probiotic concept is generally based on a viable micro-organism culture with capacity to adhere to structures in the intestine. In selecting microbial strains with probiotic potentials, their genetic stability and intestinal colonising capacity as well as their stabilising properties are of main concern. The efficacy of administrating probiotics seems to be dependent on a number of conditions, e.g. the physiological or health status of the animal, environmental factors such as feed regimen and microbial load. Beneficial effects are more often observed in neonatal animals and in weaners than in older animals. In evaluating the great number of reports on the efficacy of probiotic organisms and substances in poultry, (1992) points out a number of factors hampering a critical appraisal. The vast majority of results on the efficacy of probiotics in poultry is reported as abstracts with essential information lacking, e.g. on the identity of strains used and on experimental design. The implantation in the gastrointestinal tract of the strains used is rarely assessed. The microbiological results in nutrition-oriented papers are often poorly interpreted. A further comment is that in a number of reports in which performance and health could be improved by probiotics, the general conditions seem to have been poor and non-representative with respect to production level and morbidity. Moreover, (1992) in his review considers that some of the interpretations of the results are obviously over- optimistic and arise mainly from a naive and uncritical acceptance of the data or speculations by previous workers. According to the review by (1995), there are a number of commercial preparations available that have been successfully used in the prophylaxis of #LOSTRIDIUM and 3ALMONELLA infections in poultry. Abu-Ruwaida and co-workers (1995) confirmed the potential of this method Mode of action and effects The prophylactic treatment of salmonellosis is based on the principle of early of an adult intestinal microflora in the young bird by supplying a suspension of anaerobic cultures of intestinal material, thereby competitively excluding pathogenic organisms. However, criteria on which to select micro-organisms for protective purposes are lacking at present and will remain so until more is known about factors influencing salmonella colonisation at the cellular level and the protective mechanism(s) involved (, 1995). Swedish experimental results when using the probiotic Broilact® have been promising, with a significantly lowered mortality and lowered caecal counts of # PERFRINGENS (Elwinger ET AL , 1992). Supplementing feed with enzymatic preparations may improve the digestive capacity, particularly in young animals. Enzyme additives affect the physical properties of ingested polysaccharides. Some probiotics have been demonstrated to improve piglet performance and health. The efficacy of probiotics is difficult to evaluate in many instances, since experimental details are poorly presented. research is needed both on enzymes and probiotics and their mode of action. 3.5Addendum: A benefit cost analysis of reintroduction of in . If antibacterial feed additives () were to be used in the Swedish production of pork, egg and broilers (poultry meat) the expected direct savings in the production costs would be between . However, these estimates do not regard externalities such as the impact on demand for these animal products, nor the costs of increased antibiotic resistance both in veterinary and human medicine. The economic impact of on the Community level should be scrutinised, having regard to all relevant factors and externalities including (a) the results of the reform, (b) the costs of increased antibiotic resistance, (c) the dynamic effects for the industry within the Community, and (d) the smaller distortions of the world market due to subsidised exports from the EU. Previous studies have not accounted for the increased opening of the EU internal market to the world market due to the Mode of action and effects /WTO agreement and the increased fickleness of the consumers with regard to the perceived safety of the food of animal origin. The gains from lower export restitutions and increased import levies could be used to compensate farmers if were not to be used as feed additives. In the final analysis one should, moreover, also consider the danger of losing the consumer confidence in the safety of meat and eggs for which the continued use of could be a risk factor. This benefit cost analysis will examine the monetary impact for Swedish farmers, if were to be used in the pork and poultry sector. The estimates presented were derived from the budget sheets from Sciences extension service (SLU- Kontakt, 1996) and the budget sheets were adopted to capture the variation of estimates concerning the effects of under Swedish conditions. The results were presented as estimated savings in production costs in SEK per kg produced meat or eggs, and also as the estimated monetary gain for the whole segment of the industry. Since is a member of the EU, the market prices could be assumed to be with regard to the putative use of . In consequence, decreased production costs would benefit the Swedish agricultural industry as such. The distribution of benefits between the primary producers, and the industry was not possible to estimate, and was not within the purview of this report. Another uncertainty was the consumer response if were to be used in pig and poultry production. The assumption both in the report (1993) and the De Crane and Viane report (1992), that the consumer will only respond to price changes, seems to be contradicted by the BSE experience within the EU and also by the scrapie experience in . In both cases considerable drops in the consumption of meat occurred. There is a risk of damaging the Swedish consumer confidence if were to be used in Swedish animal production. This should not be ignored. This report presents the models based on the budget sheets for the pig industry, for the egg production and finally for the poultry meat production. Moreover, the De Crane and Viane (1992) report is elaborated on to show an alternative analysis of the impact of on the Community level with the egg market as an example. This is because the agreement resulted in a downward slope of prices within the EU and this exogenous downward pressure on prices was ignored by the same report. Mode of action and effects 3.5.3Gains if were to be used in and (1996) indicated that the costs for were approximately per kg feed for the pig sector, and the same estimate was also used in the poultry sector. The same authors noted that by using , one should be able to use cheaper feed ingredients, thus lowering the net costs of . However, they provided no estimate of this cost reduction. All budget sheets were simulated 1000 times using @ Risk (.) to capture the uncertainties with regard to the effect on growth and feed conversions if were to be used in Swedish pig and poultry production. The results of the study appear in table 3.V, while the more detailed results for each kind of production appear in tables 3.VI - 3.IX. The detailed budget sheets used for the estimation of the putative benefits appear in , tables 1-4. The savings on the supply side is around of the production costs. However, this benefit must in the final analysis be weighed against the possibility of disturbances on the demand side due to adverse consumer reactions and externalities such as the costs of the increased antibiotic resistance both for animals and humans. Based on the experience from the last 10 years of not using , the Swedish pig and poultry meat market could be foreseen to experience disturbances on the demand side if were to be used. Possible gains at the supply side if were to be used in the Swedish pork and poultry industry 4ABELL 6 -¶JLIGA VINSTER P¥ LEVERANT¶RSSIDAN OM !&4 ¥TER B¶RJADE ATT ANV¤NDAS I SVENSK FL¤SK OCH SLAKTKYCKLINGPRODUKTION #OST OF !&! If consumers confidence in the safety of e.g. pig and poultry meat diminishes, then the consequences tend to result in decreased demand. Recent experiences suggest that a drop in demand of should be Mode of action and effects Given a price elasticity of -0.5, this could indicate a decrease in the market price of 20 to . Recent similar experiences include the drop in beef prices and increased market management expenses due to BSE and its impact on the demand for beef within the EU during the 90s, and also the diminished demand for mutton due to the fear of scrapie transmission to humans in during 1996. The following assumptions concerning the effects of in piglets were made: the number of sows in amounts to 237 355 in 1995 according to the official yearbook of agricultural statistics (SCB, 1997). However, not all piglets from these sows should be foreseen to receive . Exemptions include e.g. elite breeding herds and organic farming. It was assumed that the offsprings of around 230 000 sows were candidates to receive . Earlier estimates of an increase in piglet mortality of after the prohibition of in 1986 (and Lundeheim, 1994) had to be adjusted to the present Swedish situation (see chapter 2). It was assumed that would lead to a decrease in piglet mortality by , based on the calculations by Wierup (1996). To incorporate all relevant information on feed efficacy and piglet growth weighted approaches were used in which was set as the minimum. Feed efficacy was assumed to improve on average by . The estimated effect on feed efficiency (FEFAC according to , 1993) for Danish piglets was , while the average effect on feed efficiency within the EU was according . Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect of feed efficiency of if were to be used under current Swedish conditions, and the upper estimate given in the same report was . The average of these estimates was used. Piglet growth was assumed to improve on average by . The estimated growth (FEFAC according to , 1993) for Danish piglets was and the average effect within the EU was . Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect on growth of around if were to be used under the current Swedish conditions, and the upper estimate given in the same report was . The average of these estimates was used. Veterinary and therapeutic costs was assumed to be reduced by per piglet, if was introduced (and , 1996). Table 3.VI: The results of 1000 simulations if were to be used in Swedish piglet production, mean value, with the 5th-95th percentile range in parentheses Mode of action and effects 4ABELL 6) 2ESULTATET AV SIMULERINGAR AV EFFEKTEN OM !&4 ¥TER B¶RJADE ANV¤NDAS I SVENSK SVINPRODUKTION MEDELV¤RDE MED E E PERCENTILEN INOM PARENTES #OST OF !&! production costs (%) (million SEK) The expected benefit cost ratio was 11 (mean value of simulations) while the minimum benefit/cost ratio was 5.6, the maximum was 15.9 and the 5th to 95th percentile range was 7.2-14.7. In other words, under these assumptions the use of in piglet production should produce a benefit for the piglet producing part of the pork industry of around 43 million SEK. The distribution of the benefits within the industry was not possible to predict. It was assumed that around 3.5 million slaughter pigs would receive . According to the official year book of agricultural statistics (SCB, 1997) the number of pigs slaughtered in was 3.7 million in 1995. However, not all herds would use in their pig production. Moreover, it was assumed that if were to be used in piglet production (production of pigs of live weight), this would not interfere with the market for piglets and the piglet price which the pig farmers faced. No effect was foreseen on mortality by using in the slaughter pig production stage. To incorporate all relevant information on feed efficiency and growth, weighted approaches were used in which was set as the minimum. Feed efficacy was assumed to improve by, on average, . The estimated effect for Danish slaughter pigs was and the average effect within the EU was according to (1993). Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect of feed efficiency of , and an upper estimate of . The average of these estimates was used. The results of 1000 simulations of the effect of in the slaughter pig production, the values are represented as mean values (5th-95th percentile) Mode of action and effects 4ABELL 6)) 2ESULTATET AV SIMULERINGAR AV EFFEKTEN OM !&4 ¥TER B¶RJADE ANV¤NDAS I SVENSK SLAKTSVINPRODUKTION MEDELV¤RDE E E PERCENTILEN SEK per kg pig meat production costs (%) (million SEK) Growth was assumed to improve by on average . The estimate on growth for Danish slaughter pigs was and the average effect within EU was (, 1993). Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect on growth of , with an upper estimate of the effect of . The average of these estimates was used. The expected benefit/cost ratio was 3 (mean value of simulations) while the minimum benefit/cost ratio was 0.58 with a maximum of 5.6 and a 5th to 95th percentile range of 1.5-4.4. In other words if examining only the production stage, the use of would have a net benefit in most cases. However, in a few scenarios () one would expect a negative benefit in the production stage. The impact on the demand side and possible externalities such as the costs for increased resistance to antibiotics were not assessed. A brief comment on the results Gains of such magnitude, around , for piglet and slaughter pig production could be questioned based on the variations in piglet prices in and . If the only difference were the usage of , then the Swedish piglet could be foreseen to be more expensive than its Danish counterpart. However, the market prices have varied significantly and according to the agricultural paper Land, , 1997, the Swedish piglets were more expensive than their Danish counterparts, while last according to Land, , 1996, the Swedish piglets were less expensive than their Danish counterparts. Mode of action and effects No effect on the mortality of laying hens due to the use of was foreseen, and the improvements in feed efficiency and laying performance were assumed to be in addition to the use of digestive enzymes and coccidiostats in the feed. To incorporate all relevant information on feed efficiency and laying performance weighted approaches were used in which was set as the minimum. Feed efficacy was assumed to improve by on average . The estimate by the food industry for Danish layers was and the average effect within EU was (, 1993). Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect on feed efficiency of using Zn-bacitracin. The average of these estimates was used. Laying performance was assumed to improve by on average . The estimate by the food industry for Danish laying hens was and the average effect within EU was (, 1993). Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect on laying performance of , using Zn-bacitracin. The average of these estimates was used. Table 3.VIII: The results of 1000 simulations of the effect of in the consumer egg production, the values are represented as mean values (5th- 95th percentile) 4ABELL 6))) 2ESULTATET AV SIMULERINGAR AV EFFEKTEN OM !&4 ¥TER B¶RJADE ANV¤NDAS I SVENSK ¤GGPRODUKTION MEDELV¤RDE E E PERCENTILEN #OSTS OF ANTIBIOTICS SEK/kg egg SEK/100 hens costs (%) (million SEK) Mode of action and effects The expected benefit/cost ratio was 2.3 (mean value of simulations) while the minimum benefit/cost ratio was 0.37. The maximum was 4.4 and the 5th to 95th percentile range was 1.1-3.5. In other words, if examining only the production stage the use of would have a net benefit in most cases. However, in some scenarios, 4 out of 100 egg producing farms, one would expect a negative benefit in the production stage. The impact on the demand side and possible externalities such as the costs for increased resistance to antibiotics were not assessed in this analysis. 3.5.6Production of poultry meat (broilers) No effect of on the mortality of broilers was foreseen. The effect of on feed efficacy was assumed to be in addition to the use of digestive enzymes and coccidiostats. To incorporate all relevant information on feed efficiency and growth promotion, weighted approaches were used in which were set as the minimum. Feed efficacy was assumed to improve by on average . The estimate by the food industry for Danish layers was and the average effect within the EU was (1993). Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an improved feed efficiency of between , while the upper estimate according to same authors was . Growth performance was assumed to improve by on average . The estimate by the food industry for Danish broilers was and the average effect within EU was (, 1993). Thomke and Elwinger (1997b) indicated an effect on growth performance of , using Zn-bacitracin in 1976, while the usage of in general would indicate an effect of while the upper estimate for the effect on growth was according to the same authors. The expected benefit/cost ratio was 3.2 (mean value of simulations) while the minimum benefit/cost ratio was negative and the maximum was 9.4, and the 5th to 95th percentile range was 0.4-7.0. In other words, if examining only the production stage the use of would have a net benefit in most cases. However, in some scenarios, 18 out of 100 farms, one would expect a negative result. The impact on the demand side and possible externalities Mode of action and effects such as the costs of increased resistance to antibiotics were not assessed in this analysis. The results of 1000 simulations of the effect of in the poultry meat production, the values are represented as mean values (5th-95th percentile) 4ABELL )8 2ESULTATET AV SIMULERINGAR AV EFFEKTEN OM !&4 ¥TER B¶RJADE ANV¤NDAS I SVENSK SLAKKYCKLINGPRODUKTION MEDELV¤RDE E E PERCENTILEN #OSTS OF ANTIBIOTICS SEK/ kg meat (-0.02-0.19) SEK/ batch of (-28000-173000) production costs (%) (-0.4-2.7) (million SEK) (-2.5-15) 3.5.7A brief comment on an earlier report In the following, a brief comment on the report by De Crane and Viaene (1992) dealing with the economic effects of performance enhancers in food animal production will be given. Two issues are elaborated here i. the impact on the market of the withdrawal of performance enhancers and ii. the impact of the GATT-WTO regime and reform of the common agricultural policy (CAP). An alternative point of view is presented, in which the adaptation will fully be on the supply side, since prices are presumed to be and unchanged regardless of whether are permitted or not within the EU. This assumption is based on the agreement for agriculture and the CAP reform, where the previous variable import levies and export restitutions are fixed and thereafter shall be reduced annually. Moreover, the market shall be opened for a small, but increasing share of imported animal products including meat and eggs. , there will be a downward pressure on the prices during the next years. The De Crane and Viaene report (1992) mentions these effects in an appendix, but does not account for them in the substantive analysis. Mode of action and effects The removal of will result in an upward shift in the supply curve, initially it is here assumed as a parallel shift of the curve. This means that for the same price a smaller quantity will be supplied, or that a higher price is required for the same quantity to be supplied. In the long run, dynamic effects will dominate, and possibly change the slope of the supply curve. Notice that the producer surplus change is estimated as the increase in production cost times the decrease of the amount supplied, in the case of being prohibited. The impact on the market of the withdrawal of The report has examined the impact for each country and we will elaborate this for the egg market within the EU. The price elasticity of demand is assumed to be -0.5 and the price elasticity of supply is assumed to be 0.5. &OR EGGS the impact would be an increase in production costs of , which would result in an increase of market price of , which would result in a decrease in supply of 5300 (of 4.466 million ) while demand would also decrease 5200 (of 4.439 million ). This would increase the need for export by 100 to 27700 , and a drop in economic surplus of 28.7 million ECU, i.e., the market seems to be broadly in balance. #OMMENTS: In other words, the impact of the use of in addition to the use of coccidiostats and digestive enzymes would be hard to detect at the market level. Moreover, due to the CAP and reform, an increase in prices is unlikely. The effect of increased production costs would thus be a decrease of supply, i.e., a shift of the supply curve, meaning less surplus export and less subsidies paid (, 1988). If the market price was kept unchanged, how much would the supply drop due to the cost increase? If one could use the supply elasticity 0.5, i.e. % change in quantity/ % change in price, which is derived from the aggregate cost function as an estimate for the response to an increase in production costs, the supply would drop by roughly * 0.5 which is , or approximately 53000 , i.e., the surplus situation would change to an import situation, with 25300 of eggs in net import. If one assumed an import levy/export restitution of or 90 ECU/tonne, this would lead to a savings at the community level of 53000 times 90 ECU/ tonne or 4.8 million ECU. In this case the consumer surplus would be unchanged, while the producer surplus would decrease by 4.4 million times 10 ECU/tonne or 44 million ECU. A net loss of 39 million ECU could be foreseen, if the prices were assumed unchanged or for the producers. In other words using De Crane and Vianes (1992) assumptions, not using in egg production would have insignificant impact on the economics of egg production within the EU. This does not account for the possible costs of Mode of action and effects a loss of consumer confidence, for which the continued use of is a risk factor. Economic studies of the use of has often arrived at positive conclusions for the use of . Nevertheless the assumptions underlying the studies, in particular about the ignorant consumer, are probably too restrictive and at variance with the experience in the beef market regarding BSE. one could question whether the results are of any significant relevance for future decisions concerning . Mode of action and effects 3 (USSEINI - AND "ANAT ) - , 1995. Salmonella exclusion in broiler chicks by the competitive action of adult gut microflora. !LLEN $ , 3TRAW " % -ENGELING 7 , $ !LLAIRE 3 AND 4AYLOR $ * EDS , 1992. $ISEASES OF 3WINE 7th ed. , Ames , .. !NONYMOUS, 1980. Carbadox vs lincomycin in swine dysentery control. -ODERN 6ETERINARY 0RACTICE 152-153. "ARROW 0 ! 0ROBIOTICS FOR CHICKENS In: Probiotics - the scientific basis. "ERTSCHINGER ( 5 , 1976. Chemotherapeutic efficacy of olaquindox in experimental coli diarrhoea and enterotoxaemia in piglets. 3CHWEIZER !RCHIV FUR 4IERHEILKUNDE "IEHL , -ANSFIELD - -EYER 2 7OODS ' AND 3TURM 2 , 1984. lincomycin and carbadox in the control of swine dysentery in commingled feeder pigs. )N PROCEEDINGS OF TH )063 #ONGRESS .