To estimate the reproduction number during periods B and D (RðBÞ andRðDÞ, respectively), we took the maximum of the smoothed estimate of R(t). Our estimate of the final reproduction number (RðFÞ) was the mean of the daily estimates during period F, weighted by the number of deaths on that day. By substituting equation (4.4) into equation (4.1) and solving for s(0) after setting s(B)Zs(F)Z1, we obtain a relationship between s(0) and a along with the reproduction numbers during periods B and F and the associated cumulative number of per capita deaths,