The Ferguson models have primarily been used to consider the spread and control of pandemic influenza, examining its potential spread from an initial source in South-East Asia [32] and its spread in mainland USA and Great Britain [33] . The models of South-East Asia were primarily based on Thailand, and included demographic information and satellite-based spatial measures of population density. It focused on containment by the targeted use of antiviral drugs and suggested that as long as the reproductive ratio (R 0 ) of a novel strain was below 1.8, it could be contained by the rapid use of targeted antivirals and social distancing. However, such a strategy could require a stockpile of around 3 million antiviral doses. The models based on the USA and Great Britain, considered a wider range of control measures, including school closures, household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs, and vaccination, and predicted the likely impact of different policies.