We analyzed the model in three ways. First, we selected a Latin Hypercube sample [44] [45] [46] of parameters chosen uniformly from the parameter ranges given in Appendix 2 [see additional file 2] , and simulated the transmission and control of smallpox to determine which parameters were most important for contact tracing and ring vaccination to be effective. Second, we used the same Latin Hypercube Sample of input parameters, but assumed that all disease control efforts were inactive. We used these parameters to simulate smallpox transmission, but then iteratively selected transmission parameters so that (1) between 1% and 10% of new infections resulted from casual (random) transmission, and (2) each index case resulted in between two and five secondary cases (thought to be plausible for historic smallpox; [8] suggest three secondary cases). For each of the resulting smallpox parameter sets using 100 stochastic simulations per set, we determined the daily ring vaccination/case tracking capacity needed to contain all simulated smallpox epidemics (i.e., keep the total number of cases below 500 within 250 days). Third and finally, we chose parameter values to yield an moderately large smallpox epidemic (with each index case causing approximately six secondary cases), and present illustrative scenarios for ring vaccination. These scenarios are intended to complement the simulations which were calibrated to historic smallpox, since the characteristics of smallpox that may be used in a deliberate release are not known. It is important to realize that in our model, the case finding time determines the fraction of contacts that will become infected, and that our model parameters have been chosen to yield quite rapid transmission to close contacts; in reality, much transmission of natural smallpox occurred through "sickbed" routes which would not occur in a modern setting [47] , so that in this sense our model errs considerably on the side of caution and pessimism.