for asymptomatic cases in For x = 1, contagiousness is equally high in all stages; for x = 0, only the first stage is contagious; for 0 <x < 1, the contagiousness decreases in a geometric procession. We make the simplifying assumption that contagiousness does not change during the late incubation period for cases in stage k = n -l,..,n of the incubation period.