Scenario b was motivated by the possibility that individuals with severe forms of smallpox may be more difficult to diagnose, and thus remain infectious in the community longer (despite the much greater degree of illness of such patients), or that such patients may be more infectious. In this particular case, quadrupling the mean diagnosis time led to one additional replication out of 100 in which containment was not achieved (2/100, compared to the baseline of 1/100). However, we assumed that community awareness of smallpox leads to the same relative rate of increased diagnosis among severe cases as for ordinary cases, and that the most severe forms are relatively rare. In addition to the scenario shown in the figure, we also replicated the same 1000 "calibrated" simulations, assuming that in each case 40 contact tracings per day are possible and that the diagnosis time for severe cases was four times that of ordinary cases. Finally, we repeated each "calibrated" scenario 100 times assuming long diagnosis times for severe cases, and not making this assumption, and found that the difference in the decontainment fraction was not large (results not shown).