Because of considerable uncertainty in the model parameters, we chose a collection of parameter values, and for each, estimated the containment probability (operationally defined as fewer than 500 total cases as a result of 10 index cases, within 250 days). We estimated this containment probability by simulating the smallpox epidemic 100 times for the same parameter values, and computing the frequency out of these 100 realizations for which fewer than 500 index cases resulted within 250 days.