(Using a 1000 day window produces slightly smaller containment estimates; for 3 out of 1000 parameter set choices, this difference was greater than 0.06; the maximum difference seen was 0.23; the mean absolute difference was 0.0029; in only one case out of 1000 did we see containment in all 100 cases for the 250-day window, but not in all 100 cases for the 1000-day window).