As for the undertaken interventions, breeding sites and eggs were removed on August 23 2007, larvicides were used on August 23 (effect lasting 30 days), and adulticides were used from August 23 to August 25 2007. Through model simulations, we evaluated the effects of strategies mimicking the timing of the actual interventions undertaken in Italy. As for the effects in terms of reduction of breeding sites, eggs, larvae and adults, likely values Figure 5 . Baseline simulations and reference interventions. a Average daily number of symptomatic notified cases as predicted by the model in the absence of interventions (baseline scenario, blue line, scale on the left) and 95% CI (grey area) by assuming B~200 ha {1 , compared to the actual daily number of symptomatic notified cases (black points). Red line represents the overall average daily number of symptomatic cases as predicted by the model. Green line represents the average density of mosquitoes (scale on the right). b Histogram of the cumulative number of symptomatic cases as predicted by the model in the absence of interventions. c and d As a and b respectively but for assuming an intervention resulting in the following reductions: 40% as for breeding sites and eggs, 90% as for larvae and 95% as for adults (reference scenario). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018860.g005