Assuming that the epidemiologic and virologic characteristics are similar to the epidemic in Mexico allowed us to use the values as described by Fraser [11] . They found the ''most likely'' basic reproductive number was 1.58, range 1.34 to 2.04, and estimated a generation time of 1.91 days (95% confidence interval 1.3-2.71). They distinguished children (,15 years of age) and adults (. = 15 years of age) and found that children were 2.06 (95% confidence interval 1.60-3.31) as susceptible as adults. The assortativity of mixing between children and adults was estimated as 0.5 (95% confidence interval 0.00-0.72) -an assortativity of 0 corresponds to a completely random mixing, whereas 1 corresponds to fully assortative groups. Finally, they found that 86% (95% confidence interval 69%-100%) of the infected persons become symptomatic. We considered three different scenarios of R0, namely R0 equal to 1.34, 1.58 or 2.04 and used the point estimates for all other parameters. The model does not incorporate assumptions about the severity of disease or how severity might alter infectiousness.