We cannot statistically compare the two sets of models in Table 1 and Table 2 , as the data used are different for the two cases. However, the parameter estimates from the best-fitting models of each table are largely consistent. Each post-23 rd February estimated value from the best-fit model in Table 1 is included in the corresponding pre-31 st March 95% credible interval of the best fit model in Table 2 (and vice-versa).