where r describes the growth rate of the epidemic and is calculated at 0.19 in this scenario and q 1 and q 2 are set to 0.4 and 0.9, respectively and represent the reporting fractions at the start and end of the epidemic. Again the multinomial distribution with q t , as calculated from the logistic function, is used to assign the missing cases to days of the epidemic. Figure 4 illustrates the simulated outbreaks.