The distribution of total cost associated with the adaptive intervention simulations (Figure 7) is essentially equivalent to the distribution of costs achieved under static intervention with perfect information (Figure 5 ), indicating that even the short period of data collection prior to action produces parameter estimates that are sufficient for accurate prediction of the disease dynamics. Figure 10 shows the final posterior distributions on the four model parameters estimated from the data during one simulation of the epidemic under adaptive management. True values are indicated with a circle, mean values are indicated with an 'x', and the central 95% region of each distribution is shaded. The prior densities of each parameter for the same interval are shown in red. As mentioned above, the inference model is misspecified relative to the model being used to simulate the epidemic, in that the inference model includes a mortality parameter (m, see Methods), even though no deaths were observed in the simulated outbreaks. By coupling the policy calculations with an inference framework, the effect of such model misspecification appears to be reduced.