For the interventions and parameter variations considered, the cumulative number of outpatients ranges from a few thousand to over twenty thousand (see inset in Figure  6 ). Among the four parameters, R 0 is the strongest predictor of the number of outpatients (analysis not shown) as it strongly determines how quickly antivirals become exhausted. In two out of 1,000 simulations the randomly chosen parameter combinations involved values for R 0 around 1.8 which led to very minor outbreaks given the intervention scheme. The cumulative number of outpatients escalates when antiviral stockpiles become exhausted while the proportion of susceptibles is still large enough to allow for further propagation of infectives. In this case, the epidemic curve proceeds with a second wave or a plateau.