We assume that even in the absence of specific case investigations, the presence of smallpox symptoms will prompt patients to be diagnosed; we assume, however, a higher diagnosis rate for all forms of ordinary smallpox than for the severe flat and hemorrhagic forms, or for the mildest form. We assume that once an individual is diagnosed, their household and workplace contacts are investigated and detected with some probability; we assume that a high fraction (such as 95%) of household contacts are assumed to be traceable (see below). We assume that the fraction of workplace/social contacts that are traceable is less than the fraction of household contacts that are traceable; we assume that no casual contacts are traceable.