We obtained parameter estimates and equal-tailed 95% credible intervals from the marginal posterior distributions of the fitted parameters. For the basic model for instance we estimated the relative cattle susceptibility, S c , two infectivity parameters (I c (t);I c and I s (t);I s for all t) and two kernel parameters (c(t);c post ;c pre ;c and a(t);a post ;a pre ;a for all t).