Assuming homogeneous mixing, no social distancing, s(0)Z31.2% and R 0 Z1.76, using equation (4.5), we would expect an attack rate of 58.8%-much greater than the 36.6% observed. Assuming that the number of deaths is directly proportional to the attack rate, the reduction indicates that DZ260 per 100 000 lives were possibly saved as a result of social distancing.