The model parameters describing transmissibility and clinical severity were chosen based on data from the 2009-H1N1 pandemic, with a basic reproduction number of 1.32 [23] [24] . Under the parameter values chosen (see Table S1 and [22] ), in a population with sufficient resources (i.e. when there are no shortages of oseltamivir, hospital beds, or ventilators), the scenario predicts an overall attack rate of 35.6%, a clinical attack rate of 24.9%, a peak prevalence (of symptomatic cases) of 0.94%, and a case fatality rate of 0.018%. In the absence of any resources, the case fatality rate is substantially higher at 0.029%, while attack rates and peak prevalence remain very similar.