According to the German National Pandemic Preparedness Plan [9] , the total population is divided in age classes, each of which is subdivided into individuals of low and high risk ( Table 2) . Transmission between these age classes is based on a contact matrix (Table 3) which is scaled such that the model with standard parameter values yields a given basic reproduction number R0. Values for the R0 associated with an influenza strain with pandemic potential are suggested to lie between 2 and 3 [10] . This value is higher than the effective reproduction number which has been estimated to be slightly lower than 2 [11, 12] . As a standard parameter, we use R0 = 2.5 which means that cases infect on average 2.5 individuals if everybody is susceptible and if no interventions are performed.