Separate analysis of the effect of CCM1 and CCM2. In the example above 55% (6 of 11 days; 10% case detection rate) or 40% (20 of 50 days; 30% case detection rate) of the delay, respectively, is already achieved through CCM1 alone ( Table 2) . Table 1 . Characteristics of the baseline scenario without preventive interventions under the assumption that each day 5 cases were imported to Germany. This holds similarly in the scenario of the exponentially growing number imported cases -of course under the assumption that already in the beginning the surveillance system detects a percentage of the imported cases. Effect of R0. All of the above calculations are very sensitive to the value of R0. If R0 is as low as 1.34 it is much easier to delay the peak. If it is high, such as 2.0 or more, and the number of imported cases is at least 5 per day, then the effect of CCM1 and CCM2 can delay the peak at most by 8 weeks (57 days; Table 2 ), but only when case detection rate is high (50%).