Each of the three scenarios returns the same value of s min (this is a mathematical consequence of our methods), corresponding to a reduction in the infectious contact rate of 38% during the first wave (table 2) . During the second wave, the maximum estimated reduction in the infectious contact rate was less (24%). Interestingly, the second wave was perceived as being more severe than the first, so the difference between these values may be attributable to the public health policy of encouraging social distancing during the first wave. Alternatively, the difference could be explained by the exceptionally heavy rain that fell nearly throughout the month of May (following the first wave), thus discouraging people from getting out and circulating in the wider population (McCracken & Curson 2003) .