The potential epidemic trajectory in the absence of interventions by assuming B~200 ha {1 is shown in Fig. 5a . The resulting cumulative attack rate (i.e., the percentage of symptomatic cases in the population at the end of the epidemic) was estimated to be 73.4% of the population (95% CI 57.8%-81.5%, see also Fig. 5b) . Results do not change much by varying B (B = 50 ha {1 : 74%, 95% CI 55.3%-81.6%, see also Fig. S6 ; B = 100 ha {1 : 73:9%, 95% CI 55.8%-81.5%; B = 150 ha {1 : 75%, 95% CI 57.3%-81.3%). Much lower prevalence values have been estimated in La Reunion Island and in Mayotte, namely 38.2% and 37.2% respectively. However, these estimates are hardly comparable with our model predictions as these territories have benefited from high resource allocation to mitigate the epidemic [19] .