transaction and commercial issues in many of our businesses.
These skills are a valuable resource as we monitor regulatory and tariff schemes to determine our capital budgeting needs and integrate acquisitions.
The Company expects to realize cost reduction and performance improvement benefits in both earnings and cash flows; however, there can be no assurance that the reductions and improvements will continue and our inability to sustain the reductions and improvements may result in less than expected earnings and cash flows in 2004 and beyond.
Asset Sales During 2003, we continued the initiative to sell all or part of certain of the Company’s subsidiaries.
This initiative was designed to decrease the Company’s dependence on access to capital markets and improve the strength of our balance sheet by reducing financial leverage and improving liquidity.
The following chart details the asset sales that were closed during 2003.
## Table 0 ##
The Company continues to evaluate its portfolio and business performance and may decide to dispose of additional businesses in the future.
However given the improvements in our liquidity there will be a lower emphasis placed on asset sales in the future for purposes of improving liquidity and strengthening the balance sheet.
For any sales that happen in the future, there can be no guarantee that the proceeds from such sale transactions will cover the entire investment in the subsidiaries.
Depending on which businesses are eventually sold, the entire or partial sale of any business may change the current financial characteristics of the Company’s portfolio and results of operations.
Furthermore future sales may impact the amount of recurring earnings and cash flows the Company would expect to achieve.
Subsidiary Restructuring During 2003, we completed and initiated restructuring transactions for several of our South American businesses.
The efforts are focused on improving the businesses long-term prospects for generating acceptable returns on invested capital or extending short-term debt maturities.
Businesses impacted include Eletropaulo, Tiete, Uruguaiana and Sul in Brazil and Gener in Chile.
Brazil Eletropaulo.
AES has owned an interest in Eletropaulo since April 1998, when the company was privatized.
In February 2002 AES acquired a controlling interest in the business and as a consequence started to consolidate it.
AES financed a significant portion of the acquisition of Eletropaulo, including both common and preferred shares, through loans and deferred purchase price financing arrangements provided by the Brazilian National Development Bank—(‘‘BNDES’’), and its wholly-owned subsidiary, BNDES Participa?c?
oes S. A.
(‘‘BNDESPAR’’), to AES’s subsidiaries, AES Elpa S. A.
(‘‘AES Elpa’’) and AES Transgas Empreendimentos, S. A.
(‘‘AES Transgas’’).
Research and development expense in 2015 increased by $284 million compared to 2014 primarily due to higher 777X spending at Commercial Airplanes which more than offset lower spending at BDS.
Research and development expense in 2014 decreased by $24 million compared to 2013.
In 2014, Commercial Airplanes spending increased on 777X, 787-10 and 737 MAX, partially offset by lower spending on the 787-9.
Backlog Our backlog at December 31 was as follows:
## Table 1 ##
Contractual backlog of unfilled orders excludes purchase options, announced orders for which definitive contracts have not been executed, and unobligated U. S.  and non-U.
S.  government contract funding.
The decrease in contractual backlog at December 31, 2015 compared with December 31, 2014 was primarily due to deliveries in excess of net orders.
The increase in contractual backlog at December 31, 2014 compared with December 31, 2013 was primarily due to commercial airplane orders and reclassifications from unobligated backlog related to incremental funding.
The increase was partially offset by commercial airplane deliveries and revenues recognized on awarded contracts.
Unobligated backlog includes U. S.  and non-U.
S.  government definitive contracts for which funding has not been authorized.
The decreases in unobligated backlog in 2015 and 2014 were primarily due to reclassifications to contractual backlog related to incremental funding for BDS contracts, partially offset by contract awards.
Additional Considerations KC-46A Tanker In 2011, we were awarded a contract from the U. S.  Air Force (USAF) to design, develop, manufacture and deliver four next generation aerial refueling tankers.
The KC-46A Tanker is a derivative of our 767 commercial aircraft.
This Engineering, Manufacturing and Development (EMD) contract is a fixed-price incentive fee contract valued at $4.9 billion and involves highly complex designs and systems integration.
We have also begun work on low rate initial production (LRIP) aircraft for the USAF.
The USAF is expected to authorize two low rate initial production lots in 2016 for a total of 19 aircraft, subject to satisfactory progress being made on the EMD contract.
In second quarter 2014, we recorded a reach-forward loss of $425 million on the EMD contract.
In second quarter 2015, we recorded an additional reach-forward loss of $835 million.
$513 million of this loss was recorded at our Commercial Airplanes segment and the remaining $322 million was recorded in our BMA segment.
The $835 million loss includes $670 million related to the EMD contract and $165 million related to LRIP aircraft.
The reach-forward loss on the EMD contract was driven primarily by design changes required in the aircraft fuels and aerial refueling systems which were identified as we prepared for and conducted ground and flight testing.
Other costs include additional qualification and certification testing as well as investments that will enable us to meet our delivery commitments in 2017.
The reach-forward
Incurred Losses and LAE.
The following table presents the incurred losses and LAE for the Specialty Underwriting segment for the periods indicated.
## Table 2 ##
Incurred losses and LAE increased by 24.8% to $203.9 million in 2010 compared to $163.4 million in 2009, due to an increase in net premiums earned coupled with an increase in the loss ratio.
Current year attritional losses increased $32.7 million (2.5 points) as a result of losses on the offshore oil rig in the Gulf and higher expected loss ratios in A&H and surety lines of business.
In addition, prior years’ attritional losses increased $8.1 million (3.2 points) due to unfavorable reserve development on select specialty classes of business in 2010 compared to favorable reserve development in 2009.
Incurred losses and LAE decreased by 1.5% to $163.4 million for 2009 compared to $165.9 million in 2008, primarily as a result of a decrease in catastrophe losses on the marine book of business, period over period.
Partially offsetting this decrease were the proportionally higher current year attritional losses on the marine business in addition to less favorable reserve development on prior years’ attritional losses on most of the Specialty Underwriting lines.
Segment Expenses.
Commission and brokerage decreased 4.1% to $69.6 million in 2010 compared to $72.6 million in 2009.
This decrease was primarily due to changes in the mix of business, with a higher level of excess of loss marine business and primary A&H business in 2010, both of which carry lower commission ratios.
Lower contingent commissions on the surety and aviation books of business, driven by changes in the expected profitability of this business also favorably impacted the commission ratio.
Segment other underwriting expenses decreased slightly to $8.6 million in 2010 compared to $8.7 million in 2009.
Commission and brokerage increased 2.5% to $72.6 million in 2009 compared to $70.8 million in 2008 as commissions increased on the A&H business.
Segment other underwriting expenses for 2009 increased slightly to $8.7 million compared to $8.1 million for 2008

<table><tr><td>Project Name</td><td>Date Completed</td><td>Sales Proceeds (in millions)</td><td>Location</td></tr><tr><td>CILCORP/Medina Valley</td><td>January 2003</td><td>$495</td><td>United States</td></tr><tr><td>AES Ecogen/AES Mt. Stuart</td><td>January 2003</td><td>$59</td><td>Australia</td></tr><tr><td>Mountainview</td><td>March 2003</td><td>$30</td><td>United States</td></tr><tr><td>Kelvin</td><td>March 2003</td><td>$29</td><td>South Africa</td></tr><tr><td>Songas</td><td>April 2003</td><td>$94</td><td>Tanzania</td></tr><tr><td>AES Barry Limited</td><td>July 2003</td><td>£40/$62</td><td>United Kingdom</td></tr><tr><td>AES Haripur Private Ltd/AES Meghnaghat Ltd</td><td>December 2003</td><td>$145</td><td>Bangladesh</td></tr><tr><td>AES MtKvari/AES Khrami/AES Telasi</td><td>August 2003</td><td>$23</td><td>Republic of Georgia</td></tr><tr><td>Medway Power Limited/AES Medway Operations Limited</td><td>November 2003</td><td>£47/$78</td><td>United Kingdom</td></tr><tr><td>AES Oasis Limited</td><td>December 2003</td><td>$150</td><td>Pakistan/Oman</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>(Dollars in millions)</td><td>2015</td><td>2014</td><td>2013</td></tr><tr><td>Contractual Backlog:</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Commercial Airplanes</td><td>$431,408</td><td>$440,118</td><td>$372,980</td></tr><tr><td>Defense, Space & Security:</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Boeing Military Aircraft</td><td>20,019</td><td>21,119</td><td>23,580</td></tr><tr><td>Network & Space Systems</td><td>7,368</td><td>8,935</td><td>9,832</td></tr><tr><td>Global Services & Support</td><td>17,800</td><td>16,920</td><td>16,269</td></tr><tr><td>Total Defense, Space & Security</td><td>45,187</td><td>46,974</td><td>49,681</td></tr><tr><td>Total contractual backlog</td><td>$476,595</td><td>$487,092</td><td>$422,661</td></tr><tr><td>Unobligated backlog</td><td>$12,704</td><td>$15,299</td><td>$18,267</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td></td><td colspan="8">Years Ended December 31,</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>(Dollars in millions)</td><td>Current Year</td><td colspan="2">Ratio %/ Pt Change</td><td>Prior Years</td><td colspan="2">Ratio %/ Pt Change</td><td>Total Incurred</td><td colspan="2">Ratio %/ Pt Change</td></tr><tr><td>2010</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Attritional</td><td>$192.7</td><td>70.7%</td><td></td><td>$4.5</td><td>1.7%</td><td></td><td>$197.2</td><td>72.4%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Catastrophes</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2%</td><td></td><td>6.2</td><td>2.3%</td><td></td><td>6.7</td><td>2.5%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Total segment</td><td>$193.2</td><td>70.9%</td><td></td><td>$10.7</td><td>4.0%</td><td></td><td>$203.9</td><td>74.9%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2009</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Attritional</td><td>$160.0</td><td>68.2%</td><td></td><td>$-3.6</td><td>-1.5%</td><td></td><td>$156.4</td><td>66.7%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Catastrophes</td><td>-</td><td>0.0%</td><td></td><td>7.0</td><td>3.0%</td><td></td><td>7.0</td><td>3.0%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Total segment</td><td>$160.0</td><td>68.2%</td><td></td><td>$3.4</td><td>1.4%</td><td></td><td>$163.4</td><td>69.7%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2008</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Attritional</td><td>$150.8</td><td>59.9%</td><td></td><td>$-7.5</td><td>-3.0%</td><td></td><td>$143.3</td><td>56.9%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Catastrophes</td><td>17.5</td><td>7.0%</td><td></td><td>5.1</td><td>2.0%</td><td></td><td>22.6</td><td>9.0%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Total segment</td><td>$168.3</td><td>66.9%</td><td></td><td>$-2.5</td><td>-1.0%</td><td></td><td>$165.9</td><td>65.9%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Variance 2010/2009</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Attritional</td><td>$32.7</td><td>2.5</td><td>pts</td><td>$8.1</td><td>3.2</td><td>pts</td><td>$40.8</td><td>5.7</td><td>pts</td></tr><tr><td>Catastrophes</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td><td>pts</td><td>-0.8</td><td>-0.7</td><td>pts</td><td>-0.3</td><td>-0.5</td><td>pts</td></tr><tr><td>Total segment</td><td>$33.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>pts</td><td>$7.3</td><td>2.6</td><td>pts</td><td>$40.5</td><td>5.2</td><td>pts</td></tr><tr><td>Variance 2009/2008</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Attritional</td><td>$9.2</td><td>8.3</td><td>pts</td><td>$3.9</td><td>1.5</td><td>pts</td><td>$13.1</td><td>9.8</td><td>pts</td></tr><tr><td>Catastrophes</td><td>-17.5</td><td>-7.0</td><td>pts</td><td>1.9</td><td>1.0</td><td>pts</td><td>-15.6</td><td>-6.0</td><td>pts</td></tr><tr><td>Total segment</td><td>$-8.3</td><td>1.3</td><td>pts</td><td>$5.8</td><td>2.4</td><td>pts</td><td>$-2.5</td><td>3.8</td><td>pts</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2">(Some amounts may not reconcile due to rounding.)</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table>

Question: What will Attritional for Total Incurred reach in 2011 if it continues to grow at its current rate? (in million)