Press conference exchange between JAMES POLITI and Fed Chair Jerome Powell:

user: Chair Powell—thanks Chair Powell Your economic projections today forecast 7 percent growth in 2022 unemployment at 4½ percent and core inflation of 3 percent If those conditions are achieved by the end of the year would that constitute substantial further progress in your mind? And more broadly when you look at the median forecast for interest rates in 2023 showing not one but two interest rate increases at the time is this kind of—can you describe the tone of the—of the discussion in the Committee? And are we really moving towards sort of a post-pandemic stance? Is there greater confidence that the recovery will be a full recovery sooner than expected?

assistant: On your first question, the judgment of when we have arrived at substantial further progress is one that the Committee will make. And it would not be appropriate for me to lay out particular numbers that do or do not—that do or do not qualify. That is—that is, you know, the process that we’re beginning now at the next meeting. We will begin, meeting by meeting, to, to assess that progress and talk about what we—what we think we’re seeing and, and just do all of the things that you do to clarify your thinking around the process of deciding whether and how to adjust the pace and composition of asset purchases. In terms of the, the, the two hikes—so let me say a couple things first of all, not for the first time, about the—about the dot plot. These are, of course, individual projections. They’re not a Committee forecast, they’re not a plan. And we did not actually have a discussion of whether liftoff is appropriate at any particular year, because discussing liftoff now would be— would be highly premature, wouldn’t make any sense. If you look at the transcripts from five years ago, you’ll see that sometimes people mention their rate path in their interventions. Often they don’t. And the last thing to say is, the dots are not a great forecaster of, of future rate moves. And that’s not because—it’s just because it’s so highly uncertain. There is no great forecaster of, of future dots. So, so dots to be taken with a—with a big, big grain of salt. However, so let me talk about this, this, this meeting. The Committee spelled out, as you know, in our FOMC statements the conditions that it expects to see before an adjustment in the target range is made. And it’s outcome based, it’s not time based. And, as I mentioned, it’s labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent. In the projections, it gives some sense of how participants see the economy evolving in their most likely case. And, honestly, the main message I would take away from the SEP is that participants—many, many participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee’s forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated. And that would be a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals. So the other thing I’ll say is, rate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee. The focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. But in terms of our tools, it’s about asset purchases. That’s what we’re thinking about. Liftoff is, is well into the future. The conditions for liftoff—we’re very far from maximum employment, for example. It’s, it’s a consideration for the future. So the near-term thing is really—the real near-term discussion, discussion that will begin is really about the, the path of asset purchases. And, as I mentioned, we had a discussion about that today and expect to, in future meetings, continue to think about our progress.