Midway = turning point 

In my view, if there WAS a turning point in the war on Japan, Midway has to be it. While the Japanese had been stopped at Coral Sea, they still had the initiative; they could still choose where and when to attack, and the allies had to react. But not after Midway! It was, after all, THEY that launched the Midway/Aleutians operation, and THEY that were then rocked back on their heels, and THEY that fled afterward. It was THEY that had lost 2/3 of their big, fast carriers (and the carrier was to the War in the Pacific what the ballistic missile was to the Cold War. Somewhere above someone argues that the remainder of the Japanese fleet was still a formidable force, but that is nonsense; all that force could do would be to sail out and get sunk by a carrier-equipped US NAvy)). Far from being "merely" a tactical victory, it changed the whole complexion of the war. 

Now, while they DID attempt some more offensive action (notably by trying to take Port Moresby, again, this time over land via the Kokoda Trail in the 2nd half of 1942), this was all relatively minor, designed to strengthen their DEFENSIVE positions not to conquer, and was  ultimately almost all unsuccessful. They never again tried the kind of massive, seaborne, combined arms operation that had swept them across most of the Pacific in a just a few months. Then just 2 months after Midway the US landed on Guadalcanal, and clearly the initiative was ours, and Japan was in defensive mode. Thus the Guadalcanal campaign can't be considered the actual turning point either - by then the US was clearly on the attack.

I don't think the argument that there is no turning point because Japan could never have ultimately 'won' the Pacific war works out either. Japanese planners DID know that they could not win a long war MILITARILY but that was not their plan. Strategically their plans went something like: 

1. Start the war from as superior a position as possible (hence Pearl Harbor)
2. Race across the Pacific, seizing resources and territory BEFORE the US could gear up for war.
3. Attain as defensible a position as possible (Hence the Kokoda Trail offensive and takeover of the Solomons) and DIG IN.
4. Let the US grind itself down against near impregnable fortresses. 
5.Win a favorable peace settlement when the US tires itself out throwing itself against their defenses.

But they failed at (1) when they didn't sink the US carriers at Pearl Harbor, and only 6 months later Midway signalled the early end of (2). By the failure to take Port Moresby, they also failed at part of (3). They had some hope to succeed at (5); when the bloody costs of both Tarawa and Buna-Gona became known, US public opinion was shaken. Even as late as 1945, many americans found the though of the casualties invading Japan would cost to be appalling.

So, MY conclusion is that Midway WAS *the* turning point in the Pacific. I realize this whole idea of a turning point is rather subjective, but I really think if there was one in the South Pacific, it has to be Midway.
 
Ferrocephalus (talk)