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I agree with George Profulis, a respected local meterologist. New Jersey is hit by a Category 1 or 2 storm directly (landfall) about once every 100 years (last in 1903, putting us 6 years overdue), and by a Category 3 or 4 landfalling storm every 200 years (last 1821, 188 years ago, coming due soon). Major storms passing within 50 miles off our coast ('38, '44, Donna, Belle, Gloria) causing a "direct hit" are far more common, and can be just as damaging and deadly. I would say that a repeat of '44 today, would cause Katrina-like damage in the Northeast. New Jersey might be small, but it is also the most densely populated state in the nation. Many of the homes, especially those along the shore, are only a few feet apart.  A good storm surge like seen in '44 would devastate 100 miles of prime real estate that is far more valuable per square mile then that along the Gulf Coast. Also, strong storms passing to our west (Gale of 1878, Tropical Storm David in 1979) can put N.J. in a storm's right front quadrant, the most vicious part of the cyclone