I wasn't concerned about the specific "incident" involved in the exchange.  It was the statement that the uw-templates aren't severity warnings, they are counts.  In the end, we may be saying the same thing.  I also usually start out with a level-1 or level-2.  But if I see a pattern of vandalism over time, either from existing warnings on the talk page or by taking a look at the user contributions, or if the substance of the edits is particularly egregious, I'll jump to a level-3 or maybe even a level-4 (at which point I go to AIV).  But a user might get a few level-1 or -2 warnings before getting a level-3 warning.  I guess that's why I took issue with SMcCandlish conceptualizing the numbers in the templates as "counts of warnings in the last week."  I don't see it as a linear first warning, second warning, third warning, progression.