== Definition in Lede Needs Revision == 

 The lede defines hindsight bias as follows: 

 ::Hindsight bias . . . is the inclination to see events that have already occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place. 

 By that definition, a person exhibiting hindsight bias as to event A would affirm the following statement: 

 ::Before event A occurred, it was not as predictable as it is now.  Now that it has occurred, it is more predictable. 

 That of course is nonsense, and is not an expression of hindsight bias.  As I understand the concept, a person exhibiting hindsight bias will affirm the following statement after event A has occurred: 

 ::I could have predicted that A would happen; 

 whereas, in fact, before the occurrence of A the person had no basis on which to predict whether or not A would happen.   

 For example, on a certain day, when Mary has no way of knowing what is about to happen to John, John gets hit by a bus.  Upon learning of the event, Mary feels certain that she might have predicted, almost predicted, or did indeed predict, John's accident.  She does not believe that John's accident is more predictable now that it's happened than it was before it happened, as the definition currently given suggests. 

 Somebody familiar with the literature on hindsight bias should revise the lede. 

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