== Mathematical analysis thought experiment is fallacious == 

 The thought experiment involving balls in a bowl is fallacious (ironic since it supposed to be exposing a fallacy).  Drawing a white ball actually does give you good reason to believe the ball is wood, since it is (Bayesian) evidence that there are not a large majority of red (plastic) balls in the bowl. Anyone who wants to revert this edit, please provide source/reference for this thought experiment, which is currently un-attributed.