If I may butt in here (I'd use kizzle's talk page or the /smoke/exit polls talk page, but commenting here is closer to the relevant discussion.) ...  I think what Ryan's trying to say is something that I am in agreement with: it's a subtlety, it doesn't make your point any weaker.  Yes, exit polls are used as an indicator of fraud, and yes, the more an exit poll is skewed the higher the probability (and most probable degree of severity) of fraud.  None of this is being disputed.  What is being acknowledged, is that this is statistics, and, as such, cannot, by definition, imply logical neccessity.  Logical neccessity would require probabilities exactly equal (infinitely close doesn't count) to either 1 or 0.  Absent such probability measures (which can't really be called probability measures anymore), phrases such as "absolutely certain" or "can only be", etc. are mathematically false.  Any person competent in statistics and/or probabilty would be turned off by the use of such a phrase, and rightly so.  18:27, 2005 Feb 26 (UTC)