==Hubbert peak== 
 Hi Taxman. I just read your comments on the Hubberts Curve page. You were right on with your comment about USGS comments not taking growth into acount. I spent several years during and after the energy crisis of the late 70’s working in the field of energy conservation consulting with a firm called Claude Terry and Associates. We did a lot of work with building owners and managers but also helped several state governments craft energy conservation policy for the built environment.  
 
 One of the things that I learned is tied in with Kuntzler’s assertions that world oil has peaked. At the time I did not know the name of the theory but had seen the underlying math and it is really irrefutable. The math is based on the same theory that drives compounding interest.   
 
 When demand is growing at a constant rate of growth the required amount of the item in demand will double in a given period of time. And then that amount will double again in that same period of time. And then that amount will double again in that same period of time, and so on. The growth of the supply has to be logarithmic in order to keep up with the demand. This is why conservation is so important. It is actually a source of fuel. For every gallon of gas that we ‘put off’ using now through conservation we will have up to the equivalent energy of 4 or 5 gallons in the future. 
 
 American energy consumption (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, wood, etc.) had generally followed an eight percent rate of increase between 1900 and 1974. This meant that the amount of those commodities doubled every 10 years for 70 plus years. In other words, the US used more oil in each succeeding 10 year period than it had used in all previous history. American oil production peaked in 1974 and the growth in demand hit the inability to produce more and we had a contraction. For the next twenty years or so we recovered by combining stringent conservation programs with global exploration (and exploitation). Growth in demand dropped to around 1.5 percent. This gave us a huge space in which to maneuver because the doubling period for a 1.5% growth rate is around 45 years.  
 
 Now our growth rate is back up around 4 to 5 % and, more importantly, world demand growth is up around 7 to 8%. The implication of this is that the world will use more oil in the next 10 years than it has in all previous history.  
 
 In my opinion this is the most significant issue in the world today. I suspect that some of the more intelligent of the oilmen who are running our country today also understand the theory and its implications for the future. They give lip service to an hydrogen economy but refuse to promote conservation as a policy, they will not subsidize full scale development of the hydrogen economy and have implied that conservation, along with improving air quality, will destroy the economy. In my recollection the opposite is true. Uncontrolled growth of demand wrecked the economy along with the energy crisis of 1974. The economy boomed and grew tremendously along with the great improvements in conservation and air quality that took place after 1974.  
 
 So why is the government hiding the truth? 

 Keep up the good work. 

 RMMLA 
 

 :Thanks for you (long) comment. I moved it down for chronological consistency. What you have said seems to be true, though I don't know the growth numbers specifically, they sound about right. Why are they hiding the truth? My guess is it is because the truth hurts, and if people knew how quickly we may really run out, there may be economic disruptions now. Politicians prefer negative results to occur after they are out of office. There is also the small possibility of finding more reserves that we know now, so if they are wrong about when it will run out, that would look really bad. In the end I think no govt employee really wants to take the heat in saying we're going to run out sooner rather than later. This is all just speculation since it's so hard to find the real numbers in this case. By the way, why not stick around here and get a user name? ) -