And I wish I could explain to you the difference between unconditional and conditional.  Heptalogos and I had a long discussion about this (involving very similar tables) a while ago.  Have you read it?  It's at Talk:Monty Hall problem/Archive 15#Responses (starting at about where the first table shows up).  Does talking about the number of samples help at all?  If we're talking about 300 samples, the unconditional solutions are always talking about all 300 - while the conditional solutions are talking about only half (the half where the host opens door 3).