::1 - Correct, but there is no evindence Hubberts article was a wild guess. In fact, ALL figures and analyses in the oil industry are more or less guesstimates. The science comes into how far off the guesstimates really are.  

 ::2 - It is also totally irrelevant to peak oil theory. Peak oil theory is about world-wide, macroscopic peak of production in history and the implied consequences. EROEI is about common sense, regardless of peak oil theory. 

 ::3 - That is an assumption. Current news shows that your assumption does not result in facts. The facts are that Exxonmobil, ChevronTexaco, BP and Shell all know there is not much more oil to be found. That is why BP and Shell have diversified into renewables and hydrogen years ago, instead of searching for more oil or building more refineries. More refineries will simply not translate into more gasoline, just in wasted money. Your assumption is based on market economic ideology, and not on geological facts. 

 ::4 Correct. But your assumption that US oil production has peaked because it became cheaper to import oil is not based on facts. Facts are that Saudi production only really ramped up after the 1973 oil crisis. At that time US oil production had already clearly peaked. Also, US oil production didn't improve at all when imported oil became more expensive than US produced oil. The facts are there, and they fly right in the face of your reasoning. Elementary, my dear Watson.