This House Would Recognize That The NDP Should Lose the 2009 Nova Scotia Election

I accept the terms he has defined, and will base my arguments around them. I present the House with these arguments in favour of the motion: Argument #1: Darrell Dexter is not strong enough of a leader. Darrell Dexter has lead the NDP through two elections (2003 and 2006), but has yet to successfully unseat the Tories, despite having two unpopular leaders at the helm of the government. The NDP has been lead by Dexter for 8 years, . As well, the latest polls have shown that Dexter is almost neck-in-neck with PC leader Rodney McDonald. (28% to 27%). . http://www.cra.ca... Liberal leader Stephen McNeil is also taking up over 20% of the leadership polls, and has done considerably well outside of Halifax, where the Tories formally reigned. Dexter's support is mostly in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) and other urban areas, but as I will explain in my next argument, this is not enough to win him the election. Argument #2: NDP support is concentrated in Halifax and other urban areas, which due to other mitigating factors, is not enough to win the election. Before I make my argument, I present to the House these facts: The population of Nova Scotia is 913,462 total, and in total 52 seats. Out of the total, 474,929 (52.0%) live in the largest urban areas (Halifax and Cape Breton), together they have 27 seats. Halifax has a population of 372,679, and 18 seats. Cape Breton has a population of 102,250, and 9 seats. Rural Nova Scotia has 438,533 or 48%, and 25 seats. . http://www.citypopulation.de... I would like to point out to my colleague that the NDP does indeed have a majority of the seats in Halifax currently, and is doing well in Halifax. But as I submitted, Halifax only has 18 seats, so even if the NDP did win every single seat in Halifax, they would not have enough to win the government. I would also like to point out that the NDP will most likely not win every seat in Halifax, as there is several PC and Liberal strongholds within the city, and that there is a few seats that are too close to call. It is therefore unlikely the NDP will win every seat in Halifax. The NDP also hold few seats outside of Halifax/Cape Breton. There are 5 seats in total outside of urban areas, and out of those five, only two seats are not too-close-to-call. It is therefore unlikely that the NDP can claim those seats outright. As well, the Tories take the majority of votes in the rural areas, though they are also in contention with the Liberals in several areas, including the Annapolis Valley. The NDP receives its lowest votes in these areas. This now brings me to Cape Breton. As polls have indicated, the Liberals receive the greatest support in Cape Breton (36%). Therefore, it is safe to assume that the Liberals are the preferred party in Cape Breton, and will take more seats than the NDP. Here are my sources for these statistics: . http://en.wikipedia.org... - Seat totals, distribution of votes . http://www.cra.ca... - Current poll numbers. My conclusion is that renewed support for the Liberals in Cape Breton, continued support for the Tories in Rural Nova Scotia and seat constraints will help deny the NDP a government. This of course, can all be thrown up in the air as party preference will switch back and forth. While leadership is a major part of this theme, I will explain why the NDP will not gain enough votes due to party politics. Argument #3: The NDP are at a significant disadvantage in Nova Scotia and in party politics. Nova Scotians have elected for years two parties; the Liberals and the Tories. Both parties promote center-to-center-right fiscal responsibility. Even with this past election, they have chosen this path. They have also shown it with their choice during federal elections, as the federal Liberals hold the most seats in the province, followed closely by the Conservatives and one former Tory independent, and only two NDP members. It is clear that even during the time when the Liberals were at their lowest, with the NDP gaining at their expense everywhere else in the country, Nova Scotia remained Liberal, and majority center-to-center-right. Why I mention this is because I wish to make a point about the party politics. Unlike the Western prairie provinces, Nova Scotia is not a mostly agrarian, social-democratically-inclined province. Neither does Nova Scotia have the same situations with their parties as either British Columbia or Ontario, two other provinces that elected NDP premiers. From party inclinations throughout its history and at the federal level, the NDP is at a significant disadvantage in Nova Scotia to the Liberals and Tories. As well, the popularity of federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and the rise of the Liberals in Nova Scotia at the expense of the Tories will present a major challenge to the NDP. It is also a fact that when the Liberals rise, the NDP are the ones to feel the pinch, due to the status of the Liberals as a centrist party. I will present my first example of this: Manitoba General Election, 1988: . http://en.wikipedia.org... This was the fall of the NDP in the 80's in Manitoba after the succeeding governments of NDP Premiers. As you can see, many, many NDP voters fled to the Liberals due to party dissatisfaction. My point in this example is due to the fact that before the 1988 election, the Liberals held one, and only one, seat. The Liberals are the clear party of choice for people who do not wish to vote NDP out of dissatisfaction or fear of their platform. This is my second example: Alberta General Election, 1993: . http://en.wikipedia.org... From this example, it is clear that with moderate-to-strong support for a party leader in certain ridings and districts, the Liberals are able to overtake the NDP. The NDP before were the official opposition in Alberta. I would also like to note that Alberta is about as possibly conservative as you can get in this country. But, because the Liberals are a party of the center, they will take votes from both the NDP and Tories. The NDP are therefore at a disadvantage. With these arguments and further elaborations upon them or my opponent's arguments, I present to the House the conclusion that the NDP shall not win the 2009 Nova Scotia General Election.