Mankind Is the Main Cause of Global Warming

I. The Sun My opponent is misrepresenting the evidence when he says that solar activity has dropped while temperatures have increased. As this article explains: "The cycles in the late 20th [century] were short, ~10 years, and high compared to the long term average of ~40 SSN. The minima between them were short too. So although they did reduce in absolute amplitude after the '50s, they made up for it by kicking out more energy more of the time. "[1][2] Here is a graph showing sunspot activity over the last 1000 years: [3] Notice how sunspots were more numerous during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), less numerous during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and another "hockey stick" forms at the start of the 20th century. What a coincidence. A better way to look at the solar influence on climate is to look at a new statistic. Between raw solar activity (solar irradiance) and temperature, temperature lags about 7.5-10 years behind solar irradiance because of the heat capacity of the oceans. A better representation of the sun/temperature correlation is the length of the solar cycle. "This new parameter not only indicated a remarkably high correlation coefficient between solar activity and temperature (on the order of 0.95), but it also eliminated the problem of the 7-year lag encountered by Reid. "[4][5][6] This is a close-up of the above graph: [6] Notice how solar activity falls around 1990, which, after 7.5-10 years (1999 to be exact) is manifested in a slight temperature drop. Further, here is a graph showing solar irradiance itself compared to temperature: [9] While here is temperature compared with sunspot cycle length: [10] The correlation coefficent increases from 0.57 to 0.95, which are both greater than CO2's correlation of 0.44 (0 is no correlation, 1 is total correlation). When looking at all of how the sun affects the climate: "For example, the authors of a paper by NASA's JPL remark '. .. has compared the minimum aa [index of geomagnetic activity] values with the Earth's surface temperature record and found a correlation of 0.95 between the two data sets starting in 1885. The solar irradiance [solar activity] proxy developed from the aa minima continues to track the Earth's surface temperature until the present. '"[7][8] In other words, using the better formulation produces an almost perfect correlation between solar activity and temperature. "If the Scafetta and West analysis used the uncontaminated satellite data since 1980, the results would show that the Sun has contributed at least 75% of the global warming of the last century. ""In particular, a quasi-60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied . .. The existence of a natural 60-year cyclical modulation of the global surface temperature induced by astronomical mechanisms, by alone, would imply that at least 60 to 70% of the warming observed since 1970 has been naturally induced. "[6][11][12] II. Extraterrestrial Bodies While yes, that particular study focused on the south pole of Mars, the whole planet is indeed warming: "A recent study shows that Mars is warming four times faster than the Earth. Mars is warming due to increased Sun activity, which increases dust storms. The study's authors led by Lori Fenton, a planetary scientist at NASA, says the dust makes the atmosphere absorb more heat causing a positive feedback. Surface air temperatures on Mars increased by 0.65 C (1.17 F) from the 1970s to the 1990s. "[6] Here is a list of just some of the solar system's reactions to increased solar activity: Sun - Recent Activity Highest in 8000 Years [meaning it's not just the 11-year cycle] and magnetic field has decreased in size by 25% 300% increase in galactic dust entering solar system Mercury - magnetosphere experiencing significant increases Venus - 2500% Increase in Green Glow Mars - Rapid Appearance of Clouds, Ozone and Up to 50% Erosion of Ice Features in one year alone Jupiter - Plasma Torus increasing and Jupiter's Disappearance of White Ovals since 1997, recent increase in storms Io - "observing same changes -" 200% Increase in Density of Plasma Torus and Ionosphere 1000% Higher Europa - Much Brighter Than Expected Ganymede - 200% brighter Saturn's - Plasma Torus 1000% Denser andAurora First Seen in polar regions in recent years Uranus - featureless in 1996, now exhibiting huge storms since 1999 and markedly brighter in 2004 than in 1999 Neptune - 40% Brighter, Near Infrared Range 1996 - 2002 Triton - Severe atmospheric changes, warming Pluto - 300% increase in atmospheric pressure. [13] In addition, here is hard evidence that the moon is warming: [14]Further, this shows the comparison between the Sun's, the Earth's, and Neptune's activity: [6] It is clear that not only is Neptune warming, it is doing so in the same fashion as the Earth's temperature and the Sun's activity, indicating a correlation between the events that is not caused by CO2III. Other Arguments First, my opponent claims that tropospheric temperatures have not decreased. "However, since January 2002, the temperatures have been declining at 0.16 C/decade for UAH and 0.24 C/decade for the RSS data. " This graph shows two analyses of Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) satellite temperature measurement data (which is very reliable, compared to surface thermometers) of the troposphere over the tropics from 20 degrees North to 20 degrees South: [6] Second, my opponent claims that the oceans aren't cooling. However, "Two separate studies through NASA confirm that since 2003, the world's oceans have been losing heat. "[15] Also, the PDO graph in R2 confirms this, as the PDO is going into a cool cycle. Third, my opponent claims that the hockey stick is reliable. I touched on this more in R3, but I will add this: "They used a computer model to draw the graph from the data, but two Canadians [Ross McKitrick and Stephen McIntyre] later found that the model almost always drew hockey-sticks even if they fed in random, electronic "red noise" because it used a faulty algorithm. " The MBH 1998 report was never properly peer reviewed before the IPCC used it in their publications. "[6][16]Conclusion The AGW theory makes several incorrect predictions, and the Earth's warming correlates with solar actiivty, not CO2. Sources . http://tny.cz...;