RESOLVED: driverless cars will be the norm within the next 20 years

Introduction:This debate is not over the benefits of autonomous cars, but over the period of time in which it will take them to become the standard (or "norm") on the road. First I shall refute Pro's arguments for the many weaknesses it possesses, then I shall present my own limited case about the theorized technology.Rebuttals:"Driverless cars ... Legal in California, Colorado, and Nevada"This information is misrepresented by the word "driverless." The fact of the law in question, is exciting new safety features and a type of autopilot are allowed to be tested, but by law (at least in California and Nevada) a human driver is required behind the wheel at all times [1]."Driverless cars have been tested for millions of driver miles"Unwarranted assumption (that would be a request to provide a source). At least a few months ago the research indicated a mere tenth of this figure, with a only a hundredth done without human intervention "So far, the cars have have racked up more than 300,000 driving miles, and 50,000 of those miles were without any intervention from the human drivers, Google says" [1]. On to pro's predictions, numbering shall remain to keep my points organized to his.1. "Insurance Companies... will decrease and then eliminate coverage for people driven cars."No. Insurance companies are greedy. They would not willingly surrender such a large revenue stream.2. "The advantage of a driverless long haul truck that move from destination to destination safely, without stopping or rest breaks are compelling."Trucks break, they need someone with mechanical know-how. Plus consider that even modern GPS systems guide people into rivers, and other dangers [2]. 3. "As the number of cars on the road increases, traffic jams become a thing of the past as every car on the road proceeds at the same speed and at a safe distance..."That really isn't how it works, more cars on the road cause traffic delays as the roads are unable to handle the volume.Consider what happens to the two car length distance suggested, when rush hour hits? Imagine an early driverless car (competing with normal cars) attempting to maintain proper two car lengths in front of itself at all times, and slowing down each time someone cuts in front of it (since it's the perfect driver, and that is what the driving manual indicates we should be doing). This annoyance suffered by anyone relying on one, would create customer dissatisfaction, thus delaying the full embrace of the technology.4. "The hardware of driving becomes internalized under the hood. Without driver preferences, horsepower will become irrelevant..."If this section is in reference to greater than the twenty years suggested by the resolution, it is irrelevant. Otherwise...Shall we apply this line of reasoning to current cars? Since the speed limit everywhere in the U.S. is less than 100mph, there is no reason for any normal civilian car to be able to go faster than 100mph. Has this logic taken hold in car manufacture given the last 20 years? No, Americans still love to buy sports cars. Have we increased investment in schools to improve the reasoning of the next generation of voters? Also no. Argument:There have been many breakthrough safety innovations for cars, that have failed to catch on to become standard. They all raise the price of cars, and people skip them. Not all new cars have power steering for example. Not all have turn signals on their side-mirrors, no matter how awesome and simple a feature it is. Heck they even continue to let men drive, even when we're a proved greater danger on the road to women [3].Consumer demand is what decides what becomes standard, simple buying power. Many people who live in the city, still love four-wheel drive on their trucks, even if the odds of ever putting it to use are low. During the recent fuel shortages, oversize gas-guzzlers still sell (in the cities no less). Until the minds of people buying cars change, the landscape of the road will not either.Now the median age of a car on the road is 11.4 years [4], if this trend continues unchanged (it's currently on the rise) it means that unless the new technology becomes all car dealers sell within 8.6 years, there will not be enough time for it to catch up to the numbers pro predicted.Conclusion:While it is a hopeful future, it is not the near future.Sources:[1] http://www.cnn.com...[2] http://www.ranker.com...[3] http://www.cbsnews.com...[4] http://www.huffingtonpost.com...