Andrew Luck should win the Offensive Rookie of the Year for the 2012 season

=== PRO'S CASE === 1) Usage Pro is suggesting that because Luck is asked to do more, however this stat is incomplete. Luck has more passing plays because Indy runs more plays [1]. This year, Indy ran 1126 plays, with Luck passing 627 times and running 62 times [2] for a total of 61% of the plays were done through Luck. Compared to Washington, which only ran 986 plays (and only 902 in the 15 games that RG3 played in) [1]. RG3 passed 393 time and ran 120 times [3] for a total of 57% of the time. The difference in the amount that each team relied on their rookie QB is insignificant. 2) Division strength. My opponent seems to be confused as to which team had the easier run. As I previously pointed out in this thread [4] the opponents that each of the three teams faced has shown that Indy has had be far an easier schedule. Their opponents had a combined record of 95 - 130, while Washington faced 111 - 113 - 1 and Seattle faced 113 - 109 - 3. It is indisputable that Indy had a cake walk, yet Seattle achieved the same 11 - 5 record with a much harder schedule and Washington went 10 - 6 in a division that has 3 potential playoff caliber teams (and went 5 - 1 in that division). 3) Injury risk First thing to note with this, is that it has no bearing on who the best rookie is, only about their risk to the future. On those grounds alone, this can be completely dismissed. However, it should be worth noting that not only is it a red herring for this debate, it is completely inaccurate. While RG3 and Wilson do present injury risks because of their running ability, it is faulty to exclude Luck from this as well. RG3 was #2 in terms of rushing attempts by a QB, Wilson was #3 and Luck was tied at #5 [5]. He is clearly a rushing QB, who still ran half as many times as RG3, so if you say that RG3 will only last a few years, Luck will last only a few longer by the same logic. 4) Correcting some misleading stats My opponent mentions that Ballard is 21st in rushing yards, however he is excluding that Indy runs a 2 RB offense where Brown is carrying the ball 1/3 of the time (his 108 carries to Ballard's 211) [6], if considering them as 1 rather than 2, we see that they would be ranked 10th in total yards. === CON'S CASE === This award is about individual performance. How well did a player perform. This is made clear by Cam Newton winning the award hands down last year, despite his team having a losing record. We will address the players stats and be consitently referring to sources [2][3][7] (they will not be re-sourced every time they are used, most stats will come from the splits section or the stats section). 1) Luck's getting worse with time. Luck's numbers are not too good to begin with, but when you compare his first 8 games to his last 8 games, we see his numbers getting worse. In his first 8 games, he completed 56.5% of his passes (not very good, but okay), while in the last 8 games, that completion rate fell to 51.2. His passing attempts dropped, his average per attempt dropped, he threw more picks, his QBR dropped, his rushes went up while his yards per carry dropped. This is in sharp contrast to say Wilson, who had a mammoth second half of the season. His QBR jumped from 82.4 to 120.3. His completion rate jumped from 61.4 to 67.2 and he threw 16 TDs to only 2 Ints. Griffin, likewise, got better with time, his QBR jumpped from 97.3 to 109.0, while his completion % did drop a little, his yards per pass jumped significantly and he also had 12 TDs to only 2 Ints in the second half. 2) Performance when losing If we stop to look at how each QB performs when they are losing the game, we see the same story. Luck just doesn't perform well. When losing, he is only completing 52.0% of passes, and is throwing as many picks as TDs (14 INT to 15 TDs) giving him a dismal QBR of only 74.1. On the flip side, RG3 is completing 63.5% with 8 TDs to only 1 INT with a QBR of 99.4. Wilson is likewise, completing 61.5% with 12 TDs to 5 INTs with a 99.2 QBR. If we narrow it down to how they perform when down by only a single possession, RG3 runs away with it. When losing by 1-8 points, Luck is still only completing 53.5%, though his QBR jumps to 80.0 (that is sadly pretty high for him). However, RG3 is completing 69.2%, getting 8.2 yards per rush, has 7 TDs to 1 INT, and a QBR of 114.8 (placing him as one of the best QBs to have in that situation). 3) Performance on 3rd down Another key stat is how players do on 3rd down. On 3rd downs, Luck is only completing 51.2% of the time with a QBR of 75.5 and still throwing almost as many INTs as TDs (6 to 7). On the flip side once again, RG3 is completing 59.0%, has 7 TDs to only 1 INT and is averaging 10.9 yards per carry with a QBR of 93.9. 4) Going deep One important key for any QB is the ability to present a deep threat to stretch out the defense and create holes underneath. If a QB can't create that deep risk, that will hurt him for the short ball. If we look at passes thrown more than 20 yards, the difference can be sickening. Luck has made 83 attempts and only completed 26 for a completion rate of 31.3%, meanwhile RG3 has made 33 attempts and completed 15 for 45.5%, about 50% better than Luck's. Luck has thrown 8 TDs and 6 INTs on those 83 attempts, while RG3 has an astounding 7 TDs and no picks at all for his deep ball passes. Luck's QBR on deep attempts is only 72.9 while RG3 holds a 131.6 heads and shoulders above nearly everyone else in the league. Just as a fun comparison, Aaron Rodgers only made 48 deep pass attempts, completed 39.6% for 10 TDs and 2 INTs with a QBR of 109.3, and if we look at Rodger's record setting 2011 year, he went 30 for 57 for 13 TDs and 1 INT for a QBR of 130.2. From these we can see that Luck has not really done very well and benefited from an easy schedule and a good deal of luck (lol). With that, I pass this back to my opponent. [1] . http://www.teamrankings.com... [2] . http://espn.go.com... [3] . http://espn.go.com... [4] . http://www.debate.org... [5] . http://espn.go.com... [6] . http://espn.go.com... [7] . http://espn.go.com...