It is unlikely that any extraterrestrials have ever visited earth.

:) The Argument Itself Pro's burden of proof is steeper than it may first appear. He must actually show it's very likely that any visiting ETs would live nearby and very unlikely that there are any ETs nearby capable of visiting our planet. When you combine premises that indicate uncertainty--such as with the words "probably" or "unlikely"--that uncertainty is compounded in the conclusion. 1. If any extraterrestrials have ever visited earth, then they probably they live within 50 light years of earth.2. It is unlikely that any extraterrestrials capable of traveling to earth live within 50 light of earth.3. Therefore, it is unlikely that any extraterrestrials have ever visited earth. The problem with uncertainty becomes clear when you try to quantify these terms-- 1a. A nearby ET visitor is more likely (51%)1b. A faraway ET visitor is more likely (49%)2a. Nearby ET visitors don't exist (51%)2b. Nearby ET visitors do exist (49%) If it's only 49% likely ET visitors would come from far away and 24% likely nearby ET visitors exist, it's folly to conclude that it's unlikely we've been visited, even if you agree 51% with both of his premises. 49% + 24% adds up to something much greater than 49%! In fact, according to probability theory, you must agree roughly 71% with each of Pro's premises, to judge his conclusion likely to be sound. (71% x 71% = 50%). The First Premise: If any extraterrestrials have ever visited earth, then they probably live within 50 light years of earth. > The closest star to earth is about 4.2 light years away. . it would be quite the undertaking for anybody to travel even to one nearby. I accept light speed as a limitation on communication, and some fraction of light speed between 0.30 and 0.90 as a limitation on travel speeds (using technologies such as nuclear pulse, fusion, or antimatter[1]. As such, that trip would take 5 to 15 years. > Given that there are hundreds of billions of stars in the galaxy, the odds are against anybody just luckily running into the earth. This claim is unsubstantiated. First, the density of life in our university is unknown--there could be any number of homeworlds, races, planets, moons, asteroids, outposts, or ships. Second, a space-faring race could and likely would extend its reach using machines and remote sensors. Third, it would be hubris to claim we were the first to develop space flight; other races may have begun their search for life hundreds of millions of years ago. > It is far more likely that if anybody comes to the earth, it is because they already know the earth is has intelligent life on it. Aliens don't need to know that life on Earth exists to make the trip worthwhile; it's enough to know that the possibility of intelligent life exceeds a certain threshold. Alien races more advanced than us will be able to make strong educated guesses about which stars orbiting the galactic center, and which planets orbiting those stars, are likely to support the evolution of intelligent life. For example, the presence of liquid water may be a strong indicator, and that's only possible for planets within certain orbits. > Earth produced the first radio communication in the 1890's. That means the farthest any intelligent signal could've traveled from earth so far is only 110 light years away. Supposing some civilization 110 light years away is just now receiving those signals. .. Even if aliens were to passively await a radio signal from us rather than actively investigating planets likely to contain life, the alien civilization as a whole needn't know we exist in order for our race to have been visited by some aliens. For example, the alien civilization might be 500 light years away, a sensor in an asteroid belt detected our transmission, and a patrol ship 20 light years away came to investigate. Finally, it's possible all life on this planet or mammalian life or human life was seeded or mutated by an alien race. Such a race would know precisely where we are. The Second Premise: It is unlikely that any extraterrestrials capable of traveling to earth live within 50 light of earth. > But if there were civilizations within 50 light years who had radiotechnology long before us, then SETI would've found them. That is factually incorrect. First, aliens may have had radiotechnology long before us, but stopped using it over 50 years ago. Second, SETI scans a subset of radio communications. "Virtually all radio SETI experiments have looked for. . narrow-band signals. If E. T. is a decent (or at least competent) engineer, he'll use narrow-band signals as beacons to get our attention. [2]" Thus, a more accurate statement would be, "If there were civilizations within 50 light years who still use radiotechnology and wanted to be found, we'd have found them by now! " Of course, an alien race would be entirely justified in wanting encounters with other aliens to be on their own terms. They may be hiding their signals in ambient noise (wide band, steganography), shielding them (as the atmosphere sometimes does), or directing them (a dish antenna aims signals in one direction), amongst other options. Simpler yet, they may be using a different electromagnetic wavelength. Alternatively, their homeworld may be too far away for us to detect, but their scout ships or drones or sensors may be close enough that they can listen to us. Conclusion My opponent has the burden of proof to convince you each of his premises are 71% certain, and I have poked quite a few holes in each of his premises. Sources [1] . http://en.wikipedia.org... [2] . http://www.seti.org...