Climate change

This such a broad topic it will be difficult to debate, but we'll have a go at it. It is certainly an issue that deserves attention, so it's a good topic. I agree with the contention that global warming exists. The earth has been warming at the rate of about 0.19 deg/decade since the end of the Little Ice Age in the early 1800s, well before human-produced CO2 could have been the cause. Climate change is the norm. The prior Medieval Warm Period, when Greenland was declared green, was about as warm as the present. Before that, the Holocene Optimum, about 3-5000 years ago was not only warmer than now, it was warmer than the dire global warming predictions forecast. [2a] Polar bears survived. I deny the contention that human-produced CO2 is a significant factor, although I allow that it may be a marginal contributor. The alleged scientific consensus is not meaningful, because the the consensus is largely determined by non-scientists and by scientists whose expertise is outside of fields relevant to climatology. The IPCC conclusions are determined by a dozen or so political zealots who write the conclusions and then force the scientists in charge of individual chapters to rewrite to support the conclusion the elite has reached. Only about 30% of the IPCC are scientists, the rest are government bureaucrats. The IPCC report is not subject to peer review and the scientists who contribute are not allowed to vote on whether it is reflects the consensus view or not. http://nzclimatescience.net... http://thewashingtonpest.blogspot.com... The professional societies operate in much the same fashion. The AAAS has only a few climate scientists, and the endorsement of climate change is done by the political elite, not by the climate scientists. Not too many years ago, the consensus of relevant mental health professionals was that homosexuality was a form of mental illness, and the learned societies officially endorsed that view. It was wrong. Similarly, the Steady State Theory of the universe was once the strong consensus view; that consensus didn't last. Recently, DOE Secretary Stephen Chu was asked by a Democrat if it was possible if global warming could possibly be "a hoax." Of course it isn't a hoax, because the people who believe in it are sincere. Chu himself endorses CO2 theory. Nonetheless, Chu was properly circumspect. He said (paraphrasing), "In science we most honor the dissenters who disprove the consensus." The highly publicized consensus in 1970 was that the earth was on the brink of a new ice age. The best estimates of the level of consensus I've seen are from Patrick Michaels, who worked on the IPCC reports, which can be combined with limited polling data. it's probably about 40% pro-CO2, 30% anti, and the rest "maybe." CO2 is a greenhouse gas, as Pro supposes. So if CO2 increases, say, 10%, then we ought to get something like 10% warming, right? No, that is not the way it works. A little bit of the CO2 in the atmosphere causes a relatively large amount of global warming, but as more is added the relative effect decreases dramatically. A straightforward physical model of the CO2 in the atmosphere shows that the increases in CO2 in the twentieth century would have a negligible direct effect on climate. To make the increases in CO2 have a significant effect, there has to be a multiplier that somehow magnifies the effect. There are many candidates for such a multiplier. For example, if somehow average cloud cover where reduced by a mere 2%, we would expect as much global warming as has been observed. It's no problem for guys with computers and hundreds of variables to tweak them to make the answer come out any way they want it to. The test as to whether they have it right is whether the models accurately predict what is observed. They do not. http://www.drroyspencer.com... There was a spike in temperatures in the mid to late 1990's. The models predicted a continual exponential rise in temperature. El Nino went away and temperatures subsided. Temperatures for the past decade have been about stable. If anything, they have decreased. http://www.drroyspencer.com... Atmospheric particulates were modeled to cause temperatures to decrease from 1930 to 1970, but that is no longer available to explain why temperatures are not increasing. Perhaps most telling, CO2 theory makes a strong prediction about the relative temperature rise in the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere and from pole to pole. The observations show the predictions to be wrong. [1a] Past climate change was probably due to solar activity, because there was insignificant human-produced CO2. Observations of the last few hundred years show solar effects correlate well with climate change. Unfortunately, solar activity turns out to need a multiplier just like CO2 theory. One explanation is that cosmic rays cause increased cloud formation, and the small changes in cloud formation produce the climate effects. This theory is not established, but there is a major test being conducted by CERN. Pro points to a feedback effect from CO2 being released from the ocean as the ocean is heated. This puts more CO2 in the air, which in turn causes more heating. The regenerative effect is such that once global warming starts, the world is guaranteed to end. But actually, there have been many instances of warming greater than the present, and the world did not end. The climate reversed and became colder despite the high CO2 levels. That means that whatever the contribution of CO2 to warming, there was something far greater that controlled climate, driving temperatures down despite CO2's best efforts to keep them up. The likely culprit is the Sun dominating climate. CO2 levels lag the rise and fall of temperatures by about 800 years. That implies that if multiplying effects of CO2 were significant, the earth could not have had temperature significant temperature changes in less than 800 years. Think in terms of an auto that has a 80 second lag in the accelerator. You floor the accelerator, and 80 seconds later you are up to 25 mph. With that kind of car, it isn't possible to get to 50 in just a few seconds. However, there are instances of dramatic climate change in around 50 years. The theory is therefore wrong. The Arctic Ice cap appears and disappears in roughly 60 year cycles. http://www.drroyspencer.com... The 60 year cycles track solar activity. Ships sailed across the Arctic Ocean in 1939, the last time the ice disappeared. Last winter was one of the coldest Arctic winters on record, with about a third of the ice refreezing. It appears the cycle has peaked and it heading colder. There is no sound evidence that weather is getting more violent due to global warming. [1c] In the last IPCC report, the executive committee demanded that the scientist in charge of the section on hurricanes attribute increase in hurricane activity to global warming. He refused and resigned in protest. http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu... The scientific evidence now points to solar activity as the cause of present global warming as well as past global warming. There are multiple solar effects, including direct solar irradiance, cosmic ray effect induced by changes in the Sun's magnetosphere, and long term variations in the earth tilt and orbit. There are seven or more solar cycles that correlate well with past and present climate change. CO2 theory claims that CO2 now dominates climate, but in fact temperatures have been stable for a decade despite CO2 rise. 1. Michaels, P. J., Shattered Consensus (a) p246-51 2. Singer, F, et al, Unstoppable Global Warming (a) p 66 (b) p 137 ff (c) p201-12