Independence would give Scotland clout where it matters

Scotland has more influence in Brussels as part of the UK than it could have as an independent state. The UN is a useless liberal project, much like the League of Nations before it. It has little influence and power, especially considering the emergence of China, India and Brazil as world players, and the increasing role of the EU in world markets. Even so the UK is in the Security council, Scotland if independent will not have that luxury. How do you know Scotland will be admitted to the EU straight way? The UK is one of the main players, along with France and Germany, and they could easily use their influence to block your membership. Due to the protectionism the EU utilizes Scottish markets would suffer. To add to the above, info from http://calumjc.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/is-scotland-better-off-in-or-out-of-uk.html: Another topic which has stirred up much debate is whether or not Scotland would remain as a member of the European Union (EU), should it separate from the UK. Nationalists say yes. Unionists say no. Who is right? In short, there is no clear answer. The important thing to remember here is that in international politics and international law, context is everything. At present there is no act which states categorically that if a devolved part of an EU member state separates and forms a separate entity it must then reapply to join the EU. As a result, this question has sparked debate among many experts and politicians. Let's take a look at the evidence. In December 2007 the Deputy First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon said: "It is the very clear view of the SNP and of the Government that Scotland would automatically be a member of the European Union upon independence. There is very clear legal opinion that backs up that position. I don't think the legal position, therefore, is in any doubt." The French advocate Maitre Xavier de Roux explains (page 5): "Scotland is part of the Common Market territory by virtue of the United Kingdom's accession to the Treaty of Rome and by application of the Treaty of Union 1707. If the Treaty of Union was revoked and if Scotland recovered its international sovereignty, it would be accepted within the Common Market without any formality." Others do not share this viewpoint. In a 2000 research paper published in the International and Comparative Law Quarterly Jounral, Dr Matthew Happold, then Research Officer at the British Institution of International and Comparative Law argued: "Were Scotland to gain independence, it would be the rump UK, not Scotland, that would inherit membership of the EU. Scotland's subsequent route to UK membership could well be a tortuous one. The SNP's use of the phrase "independence in Europe" seeks to persuade the Scottish electorate that it can have its cake and eat it; that Scotland can have both the benefits of independence and the security of membership of the European Union. However, like many political slogans, the phrase misleads. The real situation is that Scotland might end up with all the insecurities of independence and none of the benefits of EU membership. In a 2001 research paper for the Constitution Unit, Jo Merkens, a constitutional law expert at the London School of Economics and Political Science, argued: "The SNP claims that an independent Scotland would automatically succeed to the United Kingdom's treaty rights and obligations, including membership of the European Union. However, there is no automatic right to membership of the European Union. Continued membership would only be possible with the approval of all Member States." In October 2006, the historian Michael Fry said: "The prevailing opinion in Brussels, as I understand it, is that the continuing UK would inherit membership of the EU on the present basis. Scotland would not be treated as a successor country, and so would have to renegotiate its membership. In principle this appears to present no great problem, since the SNP (assuming it formed the first government of an independent Scotland) is committed to membership. But there could well be some thorny problems, such as the Common Fisheries Policy. In any event, the exact position is unclear because no similar case has yet arisen." In January 2007, Lorand Bartels, a then lecturer in International Economic Law at Edinburgh University, said: "Both as a matter of international law and as a matter of EU law, Scotland would have to negotiate its accession to the EU as a new member state. This process may be relatively unproblematic, given that Scotland already applies EU law, but it is unlikely to be entirely 'seamless'. At the very least there would be likely to be an obligation to adopt the euro." In September 2007 the EU Fisheries Commissioner Joe Borg said: "On the issue concerning Scotland's independence, that's not my competence to assess or to evaluate but if, for one moment, we were to assume that Scotland gained independence and therefore is eligible as a new member state for the European Union, I would see that, legally speaking, the continuation of the membership would remain with the rest of the UK - less Scotland. And, therefore, Scotland, as a newly independent state, would have to apply for membership." In December 2007, the then Minister of State for Europe, Jim Murphy, said: "But the truth is that if they were to succeed in wrenching Scotland out of the UK, Scotland's position within the EU would certainly not be secure and neither would the 285,000 Scottish jobs that depend on Scotland's EU membership. The UK is the EU member state and would continue to be so......Despite what the SNP claims, the weight of legal opinion suggests that, far from automatic membership, an independent Scotland would find itself outside the EU and needing to apply to regain membership. It means Scotland joining the queue of countries for entry which could cause not just delays, but massive uncertainty." In July 2008 Robert Hazell, Professor of British Politics and Government & Director of the Constituiton Unit at University College London said: "Scotland would have to re-apply for membership of the EU. Renewed membership is not guaranteed. The reaction to Kosovo's claim to independence suggests that EU member states like Spain might block Scotland's application, for fear of encouraging similar claims from the Basque country and Catalonia." In September 2008 Lord Kerr, a former British ambassador to the US and former head of the Diplomatic Service said: "If Scotland was to become independent, it would have to leave the EU and reapply to get back in. People in Scotland love to believe it isn't true, but getting back in would not be easy. I'm not saying it wouldn't happen, but it would not be easy. Scotland would have to overcome the objections of countries like Spain which doesn't want Catalonia to go the same way.In all probability, the Scots would get in but they would be out for quite a time before they got back." More recently, in October 2011 Simon Johnson, the Scottish Political Editor at the Telegraph, reports: "Lawyers have told Coalition ministers that Scotland is only an EU member by virtue of being part of the United Kingdom and would lose this status following separation. An independent Scotland would then have to join the EU as a new accession state, a process that could take up to three years, meaning the UK’s derogation from the single currency would not apply. According to the official legal advice, Mr Salmond would then have to obtain his own opt-out from the euro but this “might not be easy to negotiate” with the existing members." The article later notes: "Joe Borg, a former European fisheries commissioner, has more recently said new membership would be required." In November 2011, Arabella Thorp and Gavin Thompson, researchers in the International Affairs and Defence Section and the Economic Policy and Statistics Section of the House of Commons Library Research, pointed out that in 2004 the European Commission commented on the possibility of a region becoming independent in response to a question from Welsh MEP Eluned Morgan. The European Commission's reponse was: "The European Communities and the European Union have been established by the relevant treaties among the Member States. The treaties apply to the Member States (Article 299 of the EC Treaty). When a part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of the state, e.g. because that territory becomes an independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory. In other words, a newly independent region would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the Union and the treaties would, from the day of its independence, not apply anymore on its territory. Under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, any European State which respects the principles set out in Article 6(1) of the Treaty on European Union may apply to become a member of the Union. An application of this type requires, if the application is accepted by the Council acting unanimously, a negotiation on an agreement between the Applicant State and the Member States on the conditions of admission and the adjustments to the treaties which such admission entails. This agreement is subject to ratifcation by all Member States and the Applicant State." In November 2011 Jo Merkens argued on his blog: "An independent Scotland will not automatically join the European Union, but will have to apply." In January 2012 he further highlighted his point when he told the New York Times: "The U.K. minus Scotland would be the continuing state and would continue with its current treaty obligations. Scotland would have to apply as a new applicant state. It is 100 percent clear under EU law, although the Scottish nationalists have never accepted fully this. Changes to arrangements within the EU require a treaty change and the fact of having a new member state requires a treaty amendment. Accession to the EU requires unanimity among the existing member states." In February 2012, Nicholas Tsagourias, Professor of International Law and Security at Glasgow University wrote in the Scotsman: "Would an independent Scotland’s membership of the United Nations and European Union be automatic, or require a new application? In my view, Scotland is not entitled to automatic membership." Finally, in March 2012, Lord Kerr said: "The Scots would leave the European Union when they left the union of the (British) island and they would need to apply. To some extent, that would be a matter of form. The problem is that when you are applying all the existing member states need to say yes, every one. That gives them an opportunity, if they want, to be obstructive." So although there is no clear answer to what would happen to Scotland's EU membership post-separation, it is obvious that the weight of legal opinion does indicate that Scotland would indeed have to reapply. That being the case the new agreement must be ratified by each member state, according to its constitutional requirements, as indicated by Lord Kerr and Jo Merkens above. So why is this a problem for the SNP? Firstly, under new laws, new member states of the EU are expected to join the euro. This would not necessarily happen instantly, but Scotland would by law have to make a commitment. Romania and Bulgaria who joined in 2007, for example, are obliged to adopt the euro once the required criteria has been met. Therefore, should a separate Scotland apply to join the EU, it would also be applying to join the single currency. This is confirmed by Andrew Hughes-Hallet, a professor at St. Andrews University, a member of the First Minister’s Council of Economic Advisers: "First, all new members of the EU are required to join the euro eventually, and it is not clear there are grounds to argue that Scotland has the right to inherit the UK’s current euro opt-out." In the same article, Jo Merkens says: "It would not be Scotland’s choice. They can’t say they want to be a member of the EU and not the euro." At present, the UK (and Denmark) currently have a special status which allows them to decide when (and if) they wish to adopt the euro as their currency, which was set out in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. There is no guarantee that this special status would pass to a separate Scotland, which would no longer be part of the UK. Another issue for Scotland is that it would need to negotiate the EU budget. It would have to do this with less voting power than Greece. In the 1980s Margaret Thatcher secured a UK rebate because it was being forced to provide disproportionately high net contributions, despite the fact it was at the time one of the EU's poorest member states. The Commons Library report quoted earlier argues that a separate Scotland would lose out on this rebate and end up paying more per head to the EU than it does at present. It points out that in 2008-09 Scotland contributed £16 per person to the EU budget, but without the rebate it would have been £92. Being in the EU also offers Scotland many trade benefits, the main one being the free market. Any disruption to EU membership could have a devastating impact on many Scottish industries, such as the financial services sector, which is depedent on free movement of capital and labour for success. Moreover, millions of pounds in subsidies and grants would be lost if Scotland left the EU. Between 2007-2013 the European Fisheries Fund has made £44 million available to assist with capital investment in fishing industries, and the EU has also provided millions in subsidies to Scottish farmers over the last number of years. In 2011 the EU also provided an £18 million grant for renewable energy projects in Orkney, Shetland and Caithness, and in February 2012 the Highlands and Islands received a further £5.3 million from the EU to invest in projects designed to support people who are struggling to find employment. EU funds have also helped redevelop Dalmarnock rail station to enhance transportation links with Glasgow in time for the Commonwealth Games in 2014. The point here is that there are clear economic benefits to Scotland being in the EU. Should Scotland leave the UK, and hence the EU, it would lose out on these funds until such times as it were allowed back in - but the exact terms of that new membership may not benefit Scotland in the way it does today, and reapplying to the EU could take years of negoitation. Alex Salmond has actually taken legal advice on Scotland's position with the EU post separation, and yet he is refusing to publish this information. As the Spectator reports: "Opposition leaders tried again in the chamber today, demanding that Salmond publish the legal advice he had received on the issue. Again he refused." One can only wonder why this might be.