RESOLVED: The phrase "Equal Opportunity" refers to probability, not possibility.

Con puts forward a good argument that shows why possibility should be accepted in the definition of Equal Opportunity (EO). However this debate is not about which word should be used in the definition the words individually, but rather what the phrase refers to.Take for example, take the phrase Pro life. While Pro, and life have definitions of their own, and combined together form a definition that would include someone who is against capital punishment and euthanasia, the phrase only refers to an individual’s position on abortion(1). Therefore simply combining definitions is not the best method to understand what the phrase itself truly means. Understanding Possibility and Probability Before we can determine whether EO refers to Probability or Possibility we must first understand the difference between the two words as it relates to the resolution. First allow me to repeat Cons simplified explanations of what each word means: “probability is the chance that something may happen, whereas possibility is the potential of something to happen.” We both agree that probability is the chance that something may happen. However Cons definition of possibility lacks an important element which seems to cause him to misinterpret it. Here is the full definition: Possibility: (a future prospect or potential) "this room has great possibilities" Not to allege that Con was being deceitful, but the underlined example is important. This shows clearly that possibility refers to a potential, not the potential. For example notice that “possibilities” as written in the definition is plural, because there are many of them. One possibility for the room is that it could be painted blue, another is that it could be painted red, etc… All of these possibilities together form the potential. This is an important distinction because possibility in the singular form refers to something that either exists or it doesn’t. More on that later. Moving on, let’s continue by analyzing how these words work in context. As an example, consider someone asks you the following question: Is there a probability that it will rain today? This question doesn’t really make sense. Beginning the question with “Is there a…” indicates that this is a yes or no question regarding its existence. Probability does not fit into this type of question because probability always exists. The chances of anything happening is a probability, even if that chance is zero. Now consider the following example: There is a strong probability that it will rain today. This sentence fits in with perfectly with probability because it is not a yes or no, but simply indicating a certain level of chance in which probability is described as “strong” indicating a high percentage or ratio. Now let’s compare this by using Possibility to the same two examples: Is there a possibility that it will rain today? This makes perfect sense because possibility either exists or it doesn’t, therefore a yes or no answer to this question is valid. There is a strong possibility that it will rain today. Now this is where it get’s interesting. Although possibility either exists or it doesn’t, using the word “strong” to describe it is still valid. What is interesting about this example is that in the last sentence the word possibility was described as “strong”, forming a phrase that refers to probability. Ie: the probability that it will rain. Applying Equal Opportunity to Possibility / Probability According to Cons definition, Opportunity is: a possibility, due to a favorable quantity of circumstances. Notice how possibility in this definition is simply the result of favorable circumstances. In other words these circumstances are not part of the possibility, they are simply what caused it to exist. Therefore the circumstances can not be used to measure the possibility, which is exactly what Cons argument does. However even if we accept the argument that the quantity of favorable circumstances which lead to the possibility can be utilized to describe it, then there would have to be a significance in doing this. For example; if an individual has 1 favorable circumstance that leads to a possibility, then the possibility exists. If another individual has 2 favorable circumstances that lead to the very same possibility, the possibility still exists just the same. However according to Cons application of this definition, the individual with 2 favorable circumstances has a greater opportunity then the individual who only has one. The significance to doing this is that by using the number of favorable circumstances we are now creating a metric to measure the opportunity. If opportunity refers to possibility then no metric would apply because possibility simply exists. However by measuring it we now cross into the definition of probability, the same way that using “strong” to describe possibility did earlier. To take a closer look at this let’s use the following analogy. Suppose the freshman baseball team is playing a game against the varsity team. The game is now in the 5th inning and the score is 2-2. At this point, both teams would have an equal opportunity to win the game because the circumstances at this point are equal. Now suppose the Freshman score 4 runs in the top of the ninth making the score 6-2. In this scenario the freshman team now has a great opportunity to win, because they have two favorable circumstances; (1) they are up by 4 runs, and (2) it is late in the game so the varsity team will only have one inning left to catch up. In this scenario the freshman team clearly has a better opportunity to win at this point. When looking at this scenario it is easy to see how EO does not apply to possibility. If it did, then saying that the freshman team had a better opportunity to win going into the bottom of the ninth inning would be false, because both teams still had a possibility to win (this BTW was essentially Cons argument in his last debate). Clearly however, the statement is not false. The freshman team does have a better opportunity at that point because the favorable circumstances for them made the probability of winning in their favor. Conclusion Con provides a good argument which shows that the word possibility can be properly utilized in the definition of EO, however that is not what this debate is about. This is about how the phrase should be applied. It is clear to see why EO does not refer to possibility, because possibility can not be measured. If it simply exists for two different people it would be meaningless to refer to it as equal. (1) http://www.merriam-webster.com...