Wind power is unlikely to be economical within ten years

This topic was very time-intensive as were the collection of data and calculations. I will focus on California. I contend that if Wind Energy becomes practical in California, there is a high likelihood that it will be practical across the United States. My opponent is free to argue this point. To be fair, I will assume that all wind used in California must be generated in California and may not be imported from other states. 1) Total electricity costs and projectionsAccording to the California Public Utilities Commission, consumption is growing at a rate of two percent annually [2]. The total retail sales of electricity is about 260,000 GWh in 2009 [3]. At this rate CA's total electricity requirement will be 330,000 GWh by 2021. The average retail price is 13.24 cents per kWh [3]. With a 2.5% rate of inflation which is the standard rate of inflation for electricity prices [4], the overall cost of electricity will be 17.81 cents per kWh in 2021. 2) Wind Costs:(a) Capital cost of building and installing the wind power generatorsTo meet the requirement of 333,000 GWh per year by 2021, we need to find out how many wind farms must be installed. California produced 5840 GWh of electricity from wind power in 2009 which is 2.9% of the state's total net generation of about 204,000 GWh[5]. I will assume that in 2021, 50% of energy generation will be from wind and 50% from all other sources, and then show that wind will be competitive with all other sources. To meet the requirement for electricity, a total of 165,000 GWh must be produced from wind in 2021 at the rate of 17.81 cents per kWh while still being profitable to the power plant. The cost of a commercial scale wind turbine starts at $1.2 million per MW [6]. The total number of hours in a year is 365*24 = 8760. So, $1.2 million gets 8.7 GWh. In order to generate 165,000 GWh of electricity, we need $22.75 billion to build the necessary wind farms. Now assuming that wind power only works at its peak capacity 40% of the time, the actual amount of investment rises to $56.87 billion. (b) Transmission costsI agree with my opponent that transmission costs often neglected must be taken into account. The unit cost of wind transmission is about $300/kW [7]. This becomes $300 per 8760kWh assuming maximum capacity 100% of the time with there being 24*365 = 8760 hours in a year. At 40% capacity it becomes $300 per 3504kWh. The cost for 165,000 GWh can then be calculated as $14.12 billion. This is assuming that wind only blows at maximum capacity 40% of the time and the power lines can only be used at 40% capacity. (c) Backup costsIt is true that wind energy requires backup. I will assume that wind can be used to maximum capacity 40% of the time. As stated earlier, I will also assume that in 2021, 50% of energy generation will be from wind and 50% from all other sources. This leaves about 10% or 33,000 GWh of electricity production that must be added to the cost of wind energy. At the rate of 17.81c per kWh, this would cost an additional 5.87 billion for the 33,000 GWh. (d) Additional costsI won't take legal costs into consideration because it is just as likely if not more likely and environmentalists will try to sue non-renewable sources of energy as opposed to renewable sources like wind. Land costs are variable, and differ based on the location. I will assume a uniform cost of 10% of the total capital costs. If my opponent disagrees, he is free to point out exactly how much cost we should take into consideration. This will be $5.6 billion. TOTAL economic viabilityThe total costs are $56.87 billion for building and installing, $14.12 billion for transmission, $5.87 billion for backup costs and $5.6 billion for land costs. The initial cost would be $76.5 billion in start up costs adding up the costs for building, land, and transmission. Transmission is added here because most of the transmission cost for wind is due to building the infrastructure necessary. Once the infrastructure is in place, the actual costs of transmission would be much lower. The total estimated costs per year would be $5.87 billion for backup costs. If electricity produced from wind is sold at 17.81c per kWh and 165,000 GWh of electricity is sold, the total revenue to the industry in 2021 will be $29.4 billion. Since additional costs are required for backup, the net profit can be estimated to be about $23.53 billion per year. The initial investment can be recouped in as little as 3.25 years. It can be seen that wind energy is a very economical solution to producing electricity and can certainly be competitive with conventional sources of electricity. Not only will the government invest in it, but so will private corporations due to the profits that wind energy can bring them. Sources[1] . http://bit.ly...[2] . http://www.cpuc.ca.gov...[3] . http://www.eia.gov...[4] . http://www.entergy.com...[5] . http://www.eia.gov...[6] . http://www.windustry.org...[7] . http://eetd.lbl.gov...