USGF should substantially reduce its military presence in Kuwait, Afghanistan, South Korea, Turkey

Thank you for the challenge. For clarification, I assume we're using this resolution for debate: Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially reduce its military and/or police presence in one or more of the following: South Korea, Japan, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey. INHERENCY A. 90 useless B61 bombs remain without any deterrent or defense effect. . http://www.thebulletin.org... Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. S. tactical nuclear weapons. .. But as the Cold War waned, so, too, did the weapons' strategic value. .. However, no permanent nuclear-capable U. S. fighter wing is based at Incirlik, and. .. Today, Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs. .. is reportedly not certified for NATO nuclear missions. .. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days. .. a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched THUS THE PLAN: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE ITS MILITARY PRESENCE BY REMOVING ITS TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM TURKEY. -I reserve the right to clarify. ADVANTAGE ONE - PROLIFERATION A. Sub-point – NPT Credibility 1. It's on the brink – the global order is threatened by multiple scenarios for proliferation. Now is the key time to strengthen international regimes. . http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu... The global nuclear order today could be as fragile as the global financial order was two years ago. .. We are approaching a point at which the erosion of the nonproliferation regime could become irreversible and result in a cascade of proliferation. .. and the three most urgent challenges to it are North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan. .. The collapse of the existing nuclear order would constitute just such a change -- and the consequences would make nuclear terrorism and nuclear war so imminent that prudent statesmen must do everything feasible to prevent. 2. Removing TNWs from Turkey solves NPT credibility. . http://www.active-nonviolence.org... The strongest argument for the removal of US tactical nuclear weapons. .. is the threatened collapse of the NPT. .. US nuclear weapons. .. violates the spirit, and probably also the letter. .. nothing in the NPT [says] that the treaty would not hold under all circumstances. .. If. .. Obama. .. wishes to save the NPT - a logical first step would be to remove US tactical nuclear weapons. 3. NPT collapse causes proliferation –conflicts will escalate to nuclear use and great power wars Muller 2008 (Harold, Director of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt in Germany and a professor of IR @ Frankfurt U, The Future of Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World, Spring, The Washington Quarterly • 31:2 pp. 63–75) The NPT is the cornerstone of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. .. there is now the strong impression that the NPT's. .. is dead. .. With the bargain shattered, the iron law of armament would apply: the most powerful weapon of an era is inevitably either had by none or by all. The present state of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. .. seems to be a dangerous precondition for rampant proliferation. .. Regional conflicts could escalate to the nuclear level. The optimistic expectation of a universal law according to which nuclear deterrence prevents all wars15 rests on scant historical evidence and is dangerously naive. Nuclear uses in one part of the world could trigger "catalytic war" between greater powers, drawing them into smaller regional conflicts, particularly if tensions are high. .. the more states that possess nuclear weapons and related facilities, the more points of access are available to terrorists. B. Sub-point – Preemption 1. The existence of TNWs in Turkey independently encourage preemptive strikes against NATO and deck Turkey's ability to mediate conflict in the region. . http://www.atlantic-community.org... There is a rising sentiment amongst the population for the removal of US nuclear weapons from Turkish territory. .. Turkey's location has added an element of. .. risk. .. such as Iran and Syria. .. stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey might provoke a pre-emptive strike upon NATO bases. .. the difficulty of explaining the continued presence. .. to Muslim and Arab neighbors. .. undermine Turkey's clear diplomatic objectives to act as a mediator within the region. Turkey has a unique opportunity to play a positive role in promoting non-proliferation. Ending nuclear sharing and fully complying with the NPT would act as a powerful example to neighboring states and strengthen Turkey's legitimacy. 2. TNWs encourage a use it or lose it mentality, risking nuclear war. www. icnnd. org/latest/research/Perkovich_Deterrence. pdf Such forward deployed weapons could provide incentives (or pressure) for an adversary to strike these weapons early in a conflict. .. The U. S. .. . could correspondingly feel pressure to use these weapons rather than risk losing them. This would simultaneously exacerbate crisis instability and. .. weaken deterrence of escalation. The greater the incentives to target such nuclear weapons and/or to use them rather than lose them, the greater the risks of nuclear conflict. .. removal of. .. nuclear weapons could contribute to broader improvements in security relations, including arms control and confidence- building measures. .. 3. That causes global nuclear war. Utgoff 02 (Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses. , Survival, vol. 44, no. 2, Summer 2002, pp. 85–102 "Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions") Widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear weapons, and that such shoot-outs will have a substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction possible. .. Unless nuclear proliferation is stopped, we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American Wild West. .. With. .. nuclear ‘six-shooters'. .. we will all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations. SOLVENCY 1. The plan must happen now, failure to do so in the next 12 months will lead to the destruction of the nonproliferation regime . http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu... The next 12 months could be pivotal in determining whether [the nonproliferation regime] will be strengthened or will slowly dissolve. .. The international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the U. S. -led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout. 2. Withdrawing TNWs from Turkey would play a key role in non-proliferation. Mï¿½tzenich, Vankrunklesven, Kolesnikov '08 (Dr. Rolf Mï¿½tzenich MdB, Patrik Vankrunklesven, Sergei Kolesnikov, "Time to remove tactical nuclear weapons from Europe? ," PNND Notes, Vol. 3) Turkey has a unique opportunity to play a positive role in promoting non-proliferation. Ending nuclear sharing and fully complying with the NPT would act as a powerful example to neighboring states and strengthen Turkey's legitimacy. Moreover, efforts by the Turkish government to play a leading role in the elimination of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction would receive overwhelming public support.