THB: Extraterrestrial life exists

Con has presented arguments in R1, contrary the rules outlined in R1. Hence, I have not read their R1 comments, and neither should voters (or voters should disregard Con's R1 comments if they have already read them). This conversation should be considered a probabilistic argument; I cannot prove 100% that extraterrestrial life exists, but nor can Con prove that it does not. However, I will attempt to argue that it is overwhelmingly more likely that extraterrestrial life does exist than that it does not. I will do so by producing a lower bound (i.e, an underestimate) for the probability of life existing. There are at least 10^22 (100,000,000,000,000,000,000) stars in the universe (See source 1). The universe is over 13 billion years (see source 2) old. Now, let's assume that it takes 1 year for anything to happen, and only 1 thing can happen in a given solar system at any given time. This would mean that the number of things that have happened are (10^22)*(13*10^6) ~ 10^29. This is a severe underestimate, but we've shown that at least 10^29 things have happened in the universe since its beginning. Let p = the probability of life being created by any single event. We can demonstrate that life is overwhelmingly likely to exist by calculating what the odds of a given event creating life would have to be in order for the probability of life existing to be as high as it not. i.e.: (1-p)^(10^29) = 0.5 Rearranging gives: p= 1-(0.5^(1/(10^29))) ~10^-30 (See source 3) Now remember, p is the probability that life is created by any given event, and we have shown that it would have to be less likely than 10^-30 for the chances of life existing to be less than or equal to the chances of it not existing. This is equivalent to winning the lottery four times consecutively, when buying a single ticket each time- life-creating events would have to be extremely uncommon for life to not exist somewhere else in the universe, and all of this is underestimating the chances of extraterrestrial life (and thus overestimating the chances of it not existing). Another way of thinking of this is to imagine the chances of life existing are, say, one in one million million million. That would make the probability of life existing: 1-((1-(10^-18))^(10^29)) = 1 to a ridiculously high precision (See source 6). Another way to think of the result is that the probability of life *NOT* existing somewhere else in the universe if we make the above assumptions is: ~10^(-43429448191) (see source 7) This is equivalent to winning the lottery 5428681024 times consecutively, when buying a single ticket each time (see source 8). So, the chances of extraterrestrial life NOT existing if we make the above assumptions are 5428681024 to 1: a ridiculously small amount. In a single sentence: The universe is so extremely large and has existed for such an extremely long time, that the probability of extraterrestrial life is so extremely high it is difficult to comprehend. Sources: [1}: "With this simple calculation you get something like 10^22 to 10^24 stars in the Universe." http://www.esa.int... [2]: "In 2012, WMAP estimated the age of the universe to be 13.772 billion years, with an uncertainty of 59 million years." https://www.google.co.uk... [3]: https://www.wolframalpha.com...-(0.5%5E(1%2F(10%5E29))) [4]: "1 in 13,983,816." https://www.google.co.uk... [5]: "7.15112384e-8" https://www.google.co.uk... [6]: https://www.wolframalpha.com...-((1-(10%5E-18))%5E(10%5E29)) [7}: https://www.wolframalpha.com...=((1-(10%5E-18))%5E(10%5E29)) [8]: https://www.google.co.uk...