The UK or rUK is not going to leave the EU.

Despite the legislative activity an EU referendum is still not an immediate prospect. Legislation as it stands only calls for a referendum in the event of treaty change, which would itself take years to negotiate. The private members bill currently progressing through the Commons is likely to be butchered in the Lords and David Cameron's promise of a 2017 referendum relies on a Conservative victory in 2015. Such a victory may not happen, despite Labour's soft poll lead the natural bias of the current boundaries make an outright Conservative victory a very remote prospect.[1] Even if a referendum does get held the out supporters would then have to win it. Although polls for a prospective EU membership referendum tend to show those who favour the exit leading this cannot be taken as necessarily meaning that it is likely to happen. Polls change, the AV referendum saw numbers initially favourable to AV swing round to a decisive victory against AV over the course of the campaign.[2] There are a number of reasons why this is likely in an in/out EU referendum. A vote to leave the EU is in fact rather unlikely because of the full weight of the establishment in the staying in camp. Businesses tend to favour staying in because [quote=John Cridland, Director General of the CBI] being a member of a reformed EU is the best way to preserve market access[3] [/quote]. The CBI released a report that said that each UK household was £3,000 better off due to EU membership.[4] That is a lot of money and if opinions on the EU are anything like those on Scottish independence it is a killer argument. 56% of scots would favour independence if it would make them £500 better off but only 22% would still be in favour of independence if it would make them £500 worse off.[5] If similar swings were to occur in an EU referendum Britain would not be leaving the EU. Furthermore, the referendum is likely only to occur after a renegotiation which is bound to bring something, enough for the (presumably Conservative) Prime minister to recommend a vote to stay in, the result would be support for the EU across all three main parties, plus the nationalist parties as well. A renegotiation sufficient for a conservative PM to recommend staying in also has an interesting effect upon polled voting intentions by almost exactly reversing them. A YouGov poll (May 2013) found that while under the current terms 47% would vote to leave and only 30% to stay but after renegotiation 32% would vote to leave and 45% to stay.[6] [1]    Mylles, Richard, ‘The chances of an EU referendum in the next parliament are wildly overstated’, New Statesman, 18 July 2013, http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/chances-eu-referendum-next-parliament-are-wildly-overstated    [2]    UKPollingReport, ‘Alternative Vote’, accessed 4 November 2013, http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/av-referendum [3]    Cridland, John, ‘Leaving Europe would be bad for British business’, The Guardian, 17 May 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/17/business-better-off-staying-in-europe [4]    CBI, ‘In with reform or out with no influence – CBI chief makes case for EU membership’, 4 November 2013, http://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/2013/11/in-with-reform-our-out-with-no-influence-cbi-chief-makes-case-for-eu-membership/    [5]    ICM, ‘Scottish Independence Poll – September 2013’, 18 September 2013, http://www.icmresearch.com/scottish-independence-poll-september-2013 [6]    YouGov, ‘YouGov / Sunday Times Survey Results’, 10 May 2013, http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf p.15.