Concealed carry laws help reduce violent crime

- Clarification -Many terms may be used in this debate. One of them may be the term ‘shall issue’ laws. Shall issue laws are a form of liberalized concealed carry law. They generally mean if you meet the criteria of the law—including but not limited to—being 21 years of age or not having a violent criminal record, you will obtain this law. If you pass training and pass all requirements, you obtain the law.This is in contrast to may issue, meaning if you pass all of the requirements, you still may not be licensed as you need a ‘good reason’.No issue is self-explanatory. Concealed carry is banned, and you will never be issued a concealed carry permit. BOP I would argue both sides should be given equal burden of proofs. Although I am affirmative, CON is now against the status quo. Nearly all states have passed shall issue laws, and a few (Alaska, Arizona, Wyoming, Arkansas, Vermont) have no restrictions [8]. Therefore, I have a burden to prove that concealed carry laws do reduce crime, and CON must prove they either have no discernable effect or increase crime.C1) Deterrence theoryThis will provide theoretical reasons as to why concealed carry laws would decrease crime.Deterrence theory began in the 1960s under the groundbreaking research by now deceased economist Gary Becker. His work in the field of criminology is almost unmatched. His theory is now known as deterrence theory. The theory holds criminals are rational actors and will act rationally towards incentives and punishments. Indeed, Becker finds many criminals are in crime solely for payment: money. But others see the emotional thrill overweighs the costs of punishment. Essentially, criminals react to different forgings. If there is increased threat to them, they back down and are less likely to commit criminal acts [1].This applies to concealed carry in a fairly obvious manner. If citizens are able to arm themselves, this increases the cost to the criminal. Citizens may now react violently towards criminal actors, either ending in a failed attack or even death. Armed citizens also could increase the chances which criminals are caught. Therefore, concealed carry laws significantly increase the risk of committing various crimes. Based on Becker’s theory, we should see a decrease in violent crime if people are now allowed to arm themselves.And concealed carry holds more of a deterrent than open carry. Open carry can and does deter criminals. However, it also means if you are a criminal you know who to avoid. This means either you will attack at a different place, or merely murder the carrier and then harm the defenseless masses. Concealed carry means the criminal is unaware as to who is armed. The criminal does not know when a civilian has the capacity to end his life. The criminal does not know who to attack first. The criminal is the one who will be taken by surprise. Although open carry does reduce crime, concealed carry is one of the strongest deterrence methods a civilian can possess.C2) How firearms affect crime ratesFirearms have two effects on crime. First, they can increase crime. They do this by arming criminals. This can empower them to commit more crime or make the severity of their crimes more severe. However, firearms can also reduce crime. Arming citizens will both deter crime but also reduce the impact of crime. Defensive gun uses, for example, would reduce the impact of the crime, even though the crime is still attempted. The question is which effect is more important. Overall, firearms have been demonstrated to have little effect on crime, and gun control is largely ineffective. Gun control primarily affects law abiding citizens, meaning they even have the potential to increase crime [2].So why is this relevant? Obviously, laws which give firearms primarily to law abiding citizens will reduce crime. Concealed carry laws chiefly arm law abiding citizens. This means the second effect—the crime reducing effect—is amplified by concealed carry laws.C3) Empirical research on right to carry lawsWhat does the empirical literature reveal to us as to how concealed carry laws affect crime rates?The research begins with two scholars, John Lott and David Mustard. Their study took into account every single country in the United States. Their study found concealed carry laws would save the economy 6.2 billion dollars each year due to reduced crime impacts. Murder fell 7.7%, rape fell 5.3%, aggravated assault fell 7.01%, and robbery fell 2.2% [3].John Lott’s work received criticism—which I am sure my opponent will mention. Regardless, the study received much praise, including from award winning criminologist Gary Kleck. Lott’s study was the first to utilize the entire country. Before him, studies would focus on small non-geographically representative areas. They studies every shall issue law passed between 1977 and 1992. Lott’s study attempted to control for many factors other than merely changes in shall issue laws in order to obtain the true effects—previous research did not. The study was also the first to focus on all types of crime, whereas studies before focused only on homicide. Although Kleck remained fairly skeptical of the studies conclusions, he noted the study proved concealed carry laws did not increase crime. He also conceded the study was the best designed study of publication to date [4].There has been a few literature reviews on the topic. A recent one by John Lott in the Maryland Law Review summarizes the recent literature. Little research was found as to whether or not concealed carry laws increase accidental death rates. Of the evidence currently in existence, there seems to be no relationship between concealed carry laws and accidental deaths or suicides. There have been a total of 29 studies published by economists and criminologists on the issue. Of those, 18 supported the idea concealed carry laws reduced crime, 10 claimed no effect, and only one found an increase in crime. There are 5 different methods which have concluded concealed carry laws reduce crime. Authors of different political views have contributed to the idea that concealed carry laws reduce violent crime. If you extend the meta-analysis to include non-refereed studies, there are 21 studies which claim concealed carry laws reduce crime, 11 which claim no effect, and 3 claiming an increase. 60% of the literature, therefore, supports my position. Of the ones which claim increased crime, they have been found to be severely flawed. Ironically, they accuse Lott’s work of having coding errors. However, it was on a paper which he was not an author, and the coding errors did not affect the results. The ironic part is that their work is now notorious for coding errors, including having the same county in the dataset multiple times. Scholars have failed to reproduce their work, meaning it is highly unlikely these laws increase crime. The research claiming no effect also often makes errors—such as truncation bias—and when the errors are accounted for, they also find no increase in crime. Lott concludes, “the consensus is the same: right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime.” [5][6].Some research even indicated concealed carry laws reduce police deaths. Before a law, states have a slightly higher chance of police deaths via shooting. After shall issue laws are passed, there is a slightly lower chance of being murdered if you are a police officer. Allowing law-abiding citizens to carry firearms does not endanger police officers—in fact, it may even protect them [7].Conclusion Research on general firearms tells us one thing: Guns can both increase and decrease crime. Concealed carry laws primarily arm citizens, indicating the decreasing crime effects would become amplified. This means there should be large decreases in crime after shall-issue laws are passed. Research on general crime also gives credence to the idea. Criminals are rational actors and respond to incentives and costs. Concealed carry laws increases the cost for criminals, meaning they would be more hesitant in attacking citizens who may be armed. And research on concealed carry laws themselves almost unanimously argue these laws reduce crime. Unless my opponent really refutes C3, he loses the debate.[1] http://www.nber.org...[2] http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu...[3] http://www.law.uchicago.edu...[4] Gary Kleck. Targeting Guns, pp 371-372.[5] http://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu...[6] John Lott. More guns Less Crime (2010).[7] http://papers.ssrn.com...[8] http://upload.wikimedia.org...