Prompt Global Strike

Investing in CPGS seems like a no brainer at first glance. Why would any country NOT want to invest in a weapon system that provides more options for responding to global threats? But the question at hand is not whether CPGS is a good weapon system - there is no doubt it would be fearsome once developed. Rather, this is a question of whether the U.S. should invest in such a weapon, and decisions about investing are based on risk versus reward. Very simply, if the potential rewards outweigh the potential risks, then we should invest in CPGS. However, if the possible risks outweigh the rewards, then we should not invest. I submit that the risks of this system far outweigh the potential rewards for the following reasons: 1) Triggering nuclear war: As Pro has already noted, the principle fear of CPGS is that it could trigger a nuclear war. The whole point of this system is "to attack anywhere in the world on short notice" with conventional, intercontinental ballistic missiles based in the U.S. [1]. It is probable that such a launch will be misinterpreted as a nuclear attack and thus trigger an instant retaliation by countries such as Russia or China. Pro has suggested some ways to mitigate such misunderstandings, and I will save my response to those for the rebuttal round. Suffice it to say that, even with every possible mitigation in place, the risk can never be eliminated. China or Russia could never be totally sure such a missile was not intended for them, especially since many of the current prototypes are designed to change course in mid air. They could also never be sure the missile was conventional rather than nuclear. Furthermore, a CPGS designed to strike in under an hour does not give rival nations sufficient time to decide on how to react. In less than 60 minutes a nation would have to decide whether it was under attack, whether that attack was conventional or nuclear, and whether to retaliate. Such an alarming situation would undoubtedly cause panic, which leads to panicked decision making. Using this weapon would put other countries in a bad position. The research paper cited by Pro says it best: "when nations might have incomplete information about the nature of an attack and too little time to gather more information and plan an appropriate response. Faced with these circumstances, a nation who was not an intended target, such as Russia, might choose to respond quickly, rather than to wait for more information." It is no exaggeration to say that CPGS might speed us to our own extinction. 2) When would we ever use this? This entire system is designed for some notional scenario where the U.S. needs to attack almost instantly at great distances to begin some unforeseen conflict. Although not impossible, such a scenario would be very rare and unique, and current U.S. weapons technology could still respond to it. Because of this, the paper cited by Pro goes so far as to call CPGS a "niche" weapon [2]. Given, there may be some reward in having a "niche" weapon in rare scenarios, but when that reward comes at the cost of many billions of dollars, it's not worth it. There is hardly a scenario imaginable that current U.S. weaponry and force postures could not respond to, albeit with a slightly slower deployment time (by a few hours or a few days). But slower is not necessarily bad, which brings me to my next point... 3) An instant response is not always smart - Hasty decision making yielding instant results is not always a good thing when we're talking about ballistic missiles. Yet this is precisely what CPGS seeks to enable. Yes, it may take a few extra hours or a few extra days to use long range bombers or maneuver carrier groups into position, but that is good. The decision to start a war SHOULD take a few days, or, at least, a few hours. No government should have the power to push a button and end 1000's of lives in under 60 minutes. Leaders need a few hours and days to debate, decide, plan, and gather intelligence. Employing CPGS actually seems a bit silly - because although the missiles may strike key targets in under an hour, it would still take several days to insert troops onto the battlefield. It would accomplish little more than alerting the enemy to our intentions, and giving them a few days to recover and prepare before the main wave to arrive. Pro may counter that no ground troops are needed, CPGS would wipe the enemy out in one fell swoop. But history shows that rarely works. We need look no further than the air campaign against ISIS - where massive precision bombing without significant ground troop pressure is having very little effect. 4) Where does the intelligence come from? - Obviously, the CPGS targets would be selected based on intelligence. But it is difficult to develop and analyze the necessary intelligence within the time it takes to make CPGS useful (less than an hour). Think about it - how do you react to an unforeseen conflict, identify, analyze, and confirm targets, and launch within an hour? It's absurd. It promotes panicked, hasty intelligence gathering which is a recipe for disaster. Even assuming that it might work a few times, imagine the cost when it doesn't work - bad, hastily gathered intel leading to the launch of an ICBM that hits the wrong target and kills hundreds of civilians.... all while potentially starting WWIII. A few dead terrorists (who could be killed by many other means) are not worth it. The risk far outweighs the reward. 5) $$$$ - Now we get into the literal cost. According to my rough calculation of the funding history outlined in Pro's source, the DoD has spent upwards of $1.5 billion on this program between 2003-2015 and STILL has no viable prototype. There have been some successes, such as the Army's AHW model, but each test still yields serious problems. It's impossible to predict how much more money will be needed to develop a reliable weapon. In addition, we have not even factored in the annual costs of maintaining this system once it's fielded to keep it ready to deploy at a moment's notice. These are astronomical numbers, and all in the name of pursuing a "niche" weapon. This is money the DoD desperately needs allocated elsewhere. Once again, the costs far outweigh the benefits. In summary, I'm willing to admit that CPGS might work a few times in very rare scenarios. But the cost of having it go wrong are unacceptable. This system encourages hasty intelligence gathering, instant decision making, billions of dollars, and may place our nuclear armed rivals in situations where they have to decide between life and death in less than 60 minutes. We already have weapon systems that can respond globally, they just take a few hours or days to deploy, and that's often a good thing. The costs of CPGS far outweigh the benefits, therefore, we should not invest in it. [1] https://www.fas.org... [2] Ibid.