"It is no more likely that the tenth marble will be blue than it is that it will be red."

I. For the Black Swan problem, if a European were presented with a cage of ten swans, and the first nine that flew were all identical and white, it would be very logical for him to assume that the last one is white. The chance of the last one actually being black is far below 50/50. The generalization does not prove that all swans are white; however, given that most swans seen are white, the chance of a given swan being white is greater than the chance of that swan being black. This fact still seems apparent today, given that there are more white swans than black swans. Let me use another analogy with right-handed people and left-handed people. Ten people are in a tent. Nine of them walk out. They are all right-handed. What is the dominant hand of the final person? Given that nine out of nine so far are right-handed, right-handed people most likely dominate left-handed people in the population. So far, you don't even know that left-handed people exist in this place. As common statistics and the given nine right-handed people would conclude, the final person is most likely right-handed. My opponent would perhaps argue that the last person might be the sole left-handed person, to represent the 10% of the left-handed population, assuming that such a population even exists. However, this would be the fallacy of assuming that a sample is a perfect portion of a whole. It would be considerably easy to randomly get ten right-handed people; as opposed to getting the first nine people as right-handed, while the one person staying in the tent is left-handed. The chance of the former, assuming a 9:1 ratio of right-handed people to left-handed people, is 0.9^10 (0.34867844); while the chance of the final person being left-handed is 0.9^9*0.1 (0.038742049). My opponent makes the error of assuming that I argue in terms of the absolute, not of the likely. II. I will concede that we do not know the quantity of marbles in existence; we only know that the bag maker had access to blue marbles. III. My opponent claims that she has proven that red marbles exist. However, in the land that this man is in, red marbles might be unheard of. We have proof that blue marbles exist only because the man has seen blue marbles himself. The bag was not proof of the existence of blue marbles in the man's area, but rather evidence that people often group similarly-colored marbles together. IV. My opponent again switches from a true statement on absolutes to a false statement on probability. The fact that the tenth's marble is not guaranteed to be blue does not mean that the marble is equally likely blue as red. So far, all arguments on DDO originally appear to be in either black or blue/purple font (hyperlinks) on this computer. I theorize that when I post this argument, it will appear black. However, I cannot prove that the argument will appear black. According to my opponent, because I cannot prove that my argument will appear black, it is just as likely to be red, neon green, fuchsia, pink, or invisible as it is likely to be black. Common sense tells me that this is not the case, and that it is almost guaranteed that my argument will appear black. If the color black is supposed to be as rare as the other colors, and the others greatly outnumber the color black, the chance of my argument being black, according to my opponent, is extremely slim. Therefore, I propose an avatar bet to my opponent that on most people's computers, my argument for Round 4 will appear to be the same color as all previous arguments in this debate. Two weeks. If my opponent is so sure that this chance is slim, she will probably accept. Additionally, I cannot prove that my table will not shoot five feet into the air at any given time. Therefore, should I always assume that there is a 50% chance that the table will shoot five feet into the air, avoiding the table altogether? No. This would be the thinking of a madman. V-VI. My opponent claims that the tenth marble might be red for a type of game. I agree that I cannot rule out this suggestion. However, I can state that this is less likely than it is that this is just a bag of blue marbles, packaged to be delivered to one person together. Let's give myself horrible odds here, and say that there's only a 30% chance that the marbles were organized by color in the bag, and a 70% chance that the bag is for a game with nine blue marbles and one marble of another color. This other color could still be yellow, green, multi-colored, invisible, red, pink, neon green, sky blue, black, white, etc. Going by my opponent's concession that all of these results are equally likely, that leaves only a 7% chance of the final marble being red, and I haven't even listed a tenth of the colors yet! The basic fact that the color red cannot be advanced ahead of the other colors means that it cannot hope to compete with the color blue, the only color of marble that has been witnessed so far. VII. My opponent agrees that if the red marble were in the bag, it would most likely come out of the bag by now. Given that what would be expected of the red marble has not occurred, this cannot help the case of the red marble at all. It has not shown itself nine times out of ten, so there's really not much trust we can put in the red marble that it actually exists. This probability problem does not exist if the final marble is actually blue. VIII. My opponent claims that it is impossible for me to know that the maker of the marble bag only had access to blue marbles. However, I merely need the acknowledgement that there is a chance that the bag maker only had access to blue marbles, which my opponent apparently concedes. If this chance is true, then we know that the final marble cannot be red, although it could still easily be blue. This slight boost in the chance of the final marble being blue clearly puts it ahead of the color red. In conclusion, the fact that the first nine marbles were blue clearly supports the idea that the final marble will be blue. The color blue is an established color of marble, while red must first compete with yellow, green, purple, invisible, orange, and numerous others for being the unmentioned color.