The Elo System Should be Changed in DDO

This is an important topic for DDO. I see some people thinking like my opponent here. In this debate, I will show that the problems usually thought as being caused by the DDO Elo system, have other reasons. The Burden of ProofBecause Pro is the one making the claim that "The DDO Elo system should be changed somehow", he is the one with the burden of proof. The Elo systemThe Elo system is a rating system created by Arpad Elo in the 50's to rate Chess players. The rating works making predictions of the result of a game based on the ratings of each player, and giving new ratings based on the results compared to the prediction. A simplification of the system would be: the player with more Elo is predicted to win a match, and the one with less Elo is predicted to lose. The system then tries to adjust the new results for future predictions. The new ratings depend on the other players. How does it work? The first things that need to be calculated are the predictions. Each player has a prediction (Expected score) that can be calculated with these formulas: [1] : Rating of A. : Rating of B. After the expected scores are calculated, they need to be compared to the actual results that are 1 if there is a win, 1/2 if there is a tie and a 0 if there is a lose. If the prediction "matches the actual result", the adjust will be minimal (few points won, few points lost) but if it didn't match the actual result, the change is considerable. In other words, the lower rated player win a lot of points and the higher rated players, loses a lot of them. The match is never perfect, so they will always create changes in the ratings. We take the difference between the expected result and the actual result and multiply it with a constant "K". Then add the result to the old rating to get the new rating. Something like this: This constant may be different for DDO compared to the one used in chess. This last one usually being 16, and sometimes 32. The changes of the constant don't produce the problems presented by Pro in this debate and changing the constant, or any part of the algorithm is not going to solve the problems. So in summary, we make predictions of the match (implying that the ratings are accurate). Then we adjust the ratings so they become more precise. If we were wrong in the predictions, the adjustment is considerable. The DDO Elo systemVariations of the system are used in other games and competitions. DDO uses a variation of the system, but because we can't see the code or formula, we can only make guesses about it. There is few things we can know. The important one for this debate is that the DDO Elo system is the rating system. Changing the system means that the code that contains the algorithm of the system should be changed. Anything that it's not part of the rating system is not part of this debate. The reason a lot of times the problems are thought to be caused by the rating system is because people see the "Elo ranking" in the profiles, and think that everything is controlled by the rating system. RebuttalsNow that we understand how the Elo system work and that the variation of DDO works in a similar way, I can present the rebuttals.1. It doesn't stop noob snipersThis is true. The Elo system doesn't stop noob snipers. But no rating system is going to stop noob snipers. This is because every system will treat you as noob the first time you debate. Here Pro makes a claim: That noob snipers gain tons of Elo but the only evidence of that claim is the final Elo of the players. Remember that the prediction depends on the ratings of the 2 players in the match. If "the noobs" start with 2000 Elo, every match that a noob sniper wins will give him less Elo. In other words, the Elo system doesn't stop noob snipers but makes noob sniping less relevant with more matches. It would not surprise me if the Elo system was introduced in the site to discourage noob snipers. Other problem with Pro's argument is that he is implying that only the Elo of the two players presented as "noob snipers" is not accurate. Maybe Pro's Elo isn't accurate either. Maybe he deserves more Elo. That would give the comparison more sense.2. It does not accurately display your debating skillsThis is also true, but again, this is not problem with the rating system. The Elo rating system, and I'm sure it happens with the DDO variation too, has been tested over the history and it is one of the most accurate rating systems in history [2]. It is used in chess tournaments, some sports like baseball, and even videogames. This is because there is no order in matches. Everyone debates everyone, which is not bad, it's just doesn't help accuracy. ArgumentsI will present my arguments now with some solutions to try to solve Pro's presented problems.1. The Elo rating system is accurateAs I stated in my last rebuttal, the Elo rating system is accepted as one of the most accurate rating systems in history [2] and is used in a lot of games and even movies. The picture I posted in my first round is from the movie "The Social Network" that tells the story of the creation of Facebook. In the image you can see the formula for predicting scores (the formula is wrong in the movie) which was used in a site that existed before Facebook. [3]. http://www.youtube.com...2. Pro needs to propose a new system Or at least the changes that would improve the system and solve the problemsThe resolution here is about a change on the DDO Elo system, but the system is not big. It's just an algorithm that predicts and controls the ratings. What does it need to be changed? And why that change is going to some the problem? This was not explained in Pro's round and the point I'm placing this in 'Arguments" instead of "Rebuttals" is because I don't think he can find it. Every problem that he will find, is going to be shared with other rating systems.3. Possible SolutionThis is my proposed solution for the problems. a. A matchmaking systemThe problems can be solved with a matchmaking system. This is problematic (ironic) because debates tend to last days and the resolutions should be picked after the matching is done. This is a usual solution in games because of time and everything you need to play is already there. But it doesn't need to be automatic, just place limits to the possible matches. b. Non rated debatesThis will create the illusion of importance on the rating and debaters are not going to do "rap battles" all the time. One could create debates and choose if the debate is rated or not. Or maybe having the rated debates only in tournaments. Having a tournament only rating can be also a solution of showing a more accurate rating because you can't avoid other participants. This would also reduce the problems with people not willing to debate low rated debaters and people dodging high rated debaters. c. Don't let the noobs debate! Having 2 different groups of debates, new members should have the option of having non rated debates only, until they reach a considerable amount of debates (maybe 5 or 10). This way, "noobs" debate each other until they are prepared or have enough experience to debate "non-noobs". And "non noobs" will debate other "non noobs" avoiding noob snipers to an extent. d. Don't count forfeituresForfeitures are a problem. If we don't use the Elo rating system when there is an automatic forfeiture, it will not grant unnecessary points. -------------------------------------------------------------This is a solution that would need a couple of changes, but everything is made inside of this "non automatic matchmaking system". Nothing on this solution changes the Elo system. Thanks. Vote CON. Sources1. . http://www.glicko.net...2. . http://www.glicko.net...3. The algorithm scene - The Social Network