Death Penalty

[Response to R2] Thanks, Pro, again for the response. DETERRENCE “According to an irrefutable 26 year study, each execution prevents an average of 74 murders the following year” This is entirely false. Deterrence is a dubious point at best and most scholars disagree that the death penalty deters any more than long-term imprisonment. Pro’s study ignores other crime patterns and non-DP states Adler and Summers' claim is that when executions increase, murders decrease, and vice versa. One major problem with their study is that crime rates, during the period that drives the results according to Professor Ronald Allen [1], were falling dramatically across the nation and not just for homicide. This means 1) crime was falling for states that didn't use the death penalty, which completely destroys the theory that crime was falling because of the death penalty, and 2) the correlation could also be applied to burglary, robbery, assault, and other crimes that the death penalty could not, with any plausibility, have a deterrent effect on. In the a criminology journal, Michael Radelet, calls this an “astonishingly simple study” [2]. The authors based their conclusion solely on the observation between homicides and executions. No additional control variables were used and major factors such as drug use, possession of firearms, alternative punishment, or arrest rates for homicides were not considered. They also did not study whether states that execute prisoners had more or less murders compared to states that which do not (it wouldn't have supported their agenda). The study is based on statistics misuse and flawed methodology Gebhard Kirchgassner, a professor of economics, writes an article that exposes the statistical maneuvering employed in the study Pro presents [4]. He demonstrates that the OLS regression, that Pro mentioned, is insufficient “according to any standard of conventional econometric techniques”. In recent years, intense debate has gone on regarding the issue of econometric methodology and its appropriate applications in regards to the death penalty argument. The WSJ study is one such violation of this methodology. Kirchgassner takes the data and methodology that they used and demonstrates “how easy it is to produce contradictory results”. The equation they use seems to indicate a high estimated correlation between residuals. However, "further examination of the residuals indicates second order autocorrelation. Thus, even if the true relation would be a simple bivariate one, the significance of the estimated parameters would be highly dubious". Taking this into account, a second order Cochrane-Orcutt transformation can be performed (depicted in the article). The second equation is far more reliable "according to all statistical criteria"..."However, the estimated coefficient of the number of executions is much smaller and no longer statistically significant at any conventional significance level”. In other words, the “74 lives saved” figure completely disappears. Kirchgassner was even able to produce a negative exponent (meaning an increase in homicide) using their data and methodology. Moreover, he discovered sub periods where the same approach would have proved a positive correlation between executions and homicide rates--as high as 82 additional homicides. The author produces numerous examples. “Thus, we find again the situation that, taking the autocorrelation of the residuals into account, we get two rather different results with equally plausible specifications which are hardly distinguishable according to statistical criteria.” Expert consensus In 2008, a survey was conducted on members of the prestigious Fellow in the American Society of Criminology. 88.2% of the experts do not believe that the death penalty is a deterrent. 74.7% say that research refutes the claim that death-penalty states have lower homicide rates than neighboring states without the death-penalty. In fact, death-penalty states had 42% higher homicide rates than non-death penalty states in 2007.[2] Also, in a 1995 national survey, two-thirds of nearly 400 police chiefs and county sheriffs responded that they did not believe the death penalty significantly lowered the number of murders [2]. “Overall, it is clear that however measured, fewer than 10% of the polled experts believe the deterrence effect of the death penalty is stronger than that of long-term imprisonment”[2] Studies A study was conducted a few years ago (more recent than Pro’s study) by the prestigious (and less bias as the Wall Street Journal) National Research Council of the National Academies [6]. The study covered over three decades of research and concluded that there were three fundamental flaws in current studies on deterrence: 1. “The studies do not factor in the effects of noncapital punishments that may also be imposed. 2. The studies use incomplete or implausible models of potential murderers’ perceptions of and response to the use of capital punishment. 3. Estimates of the effect of capital punishment are based on statistical models that make assumptions that are not credible.” The conclusion of the study was that research is not informative about the effect of capital punishment on homicide rates and, therefore, should not be used to inform policy judgements. There have been a vast amount of studies regarding capital punishment and deterrence such as the 10 mentioned between 2004 and 2012 here [7]. The only thing we can gather from all these studies is that the effect of capital punishment on homicide rates can’t be established, as the mentioned article concludes. There are, however, reasons why the death penalty might have very little deterrence or no deterrence at all. The first reason is the consensus of experts against deterrence. The second is presented below. The mind of the criminal For the death penalty to deter, criminals need to actively weigh the thought of execution to their potential crime. This is problematic; one, because executions happen so little in America and are applied so arbitrary that no one would believe they had much chance of receiving the death penalty. Also, murders are largely committed in the heat of passion, or under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or because they are mentally ill--little thought is given to the possible consequences. Those murderers in the minority, who plan the crime in advance, are counting on not being caught; they expect to avoid punishment altogether.[3] GROWING FOCUS ON PROPER JUSTICE According to Pro’s own figure, we could be executing nearly 3 innocents out of every 100 based upon known doubts. In other words the figure is already high and would be higher if we knew about other cases, but the case closes after execution so its very difficult to continue old cases. So the figures is likely higher than 3%. Moreover, 144 people sentenced to death have been found innocent and released since 1973 [8], which further exposes the fallibility in sentencing. While they corrected their mistake, nearly sending 144 people wrongly to their deaths is indefensible. “The National Registry of Exonerations has recorded a 22.2% rise in exonerations from 1989 to 2013” Which can be explained largely by the increase of overall incarceration. Much more people are being sent to jail now than in the past. The figure was mostly stable from the 1920s onward, until 1980 when it starting increasing rapidly. The sharpest incline is from roughly 1988-2000 (Pro’s figure is 1989-2013). National population growth cannot explain it as there has been a 500% increase in prison population in the past 30 years from 2012. Pro’s percentage does not take that into account. The chart is based on exonerations per year. It is only natural that, as more people are going to jail more people are getting exonerated.[5] While incarceration levels dropped in 2010 and exonerations were high last year, this is by no means evidence to support Pro’s case since he would be taking three minor years as evidence that the justice system is on the track towards eliminating the wrongful-execution problem. There are ups in down in the charts and a very strong correlation is needed to prove causation, so Pro can’t use these figures. That would be a more blatant misuse of statistics than was used in the deterrence argument. “Exonerations are also rising for those on death row” Same problem: execution rates were higher in the latter period than the former according to Pro’s source. If we changed the number to exonerations per convicted, it would be insignificant. “Working harder...Catching more mistakes” A 1 year increase in productivity is not adequate evidence that this will lead to the elimination of the problem of executing innocents. What’s needed is a continued increase in efficiency, which is not established by looking at one year. Moreover, there’s nothing to suggest that this will lapse by next year or a decade from now. Hard work doesn’t run at a constant upwards trend. There are lapses and surges. Who’s to say this isn’t just a temporary surge? No new techniques were presented and Pro’s own source says DNA testing was used even less. Moreover, the risk is not only that an innocent is executed, but also that the responsibility of the perpetrator is miscalculated. The jury can be correct that the accused is guilty of the crime while at the same time miscalculating his motives and degree of responsibility. Thus, wrongly executing a guilty--but not that guilty--person is still worrisome. Conclusion Pro’s arguments are unsound in a number of ways but both are deeply flawed mathematically, thus, it’s virtually unquestionable that they don’t hold up since they’re based on flawed methodology and a misuse of statistics. Sources [1] http://tinyurl.com... [2] http://tinyurl.com... [3] http://tinyurl.com... [4] http://tinyurl.com... [5] http://tinyurl.com... [6] http://tinyurl.com... [7] http://tinyurl.com... [8] http://tinyurl.com...