Mafia Debate: Behavioral Analysis On D1

== Intro ==There are objective differences between town and mafia. Town are uninformed; mafia are informed. Town scumhunt; mafia don't. Town push lynches on people they think are mafia; mafia know the alignment of those they push and defend. Town must lynch to win; mafia need not lynch anyone. These differences create "tells." Analyzing behavior allows the town to locate these "tells," which in turn allows town to find and lynch mafia.bossy's going to argue that tells cannot exist on D1. He'll argue that D1 behaviors aren't "objective information" and he'll argue that "tells" only exist after the town has "objective information." However, the town does have "objective informaton" on D1. That objective information is knowledge about the differences between town and mafia. Town know they must lynch mafia to win; they also know mafia need not lynch anyone. Or another example -- town knows that mafia knows everyone's alignment. This information is "objective information" that all townies possess at the start of every mafia game. This "objective information" is also all you need to find scum on D1. Even if it's not successful 100% of the time, it certainly increases the likelihood of a successful D1 lynch. Ultimately, the mafia cannot help but post from an informed perspective, and town cannot help but post from an uninformed perspective. Tells are unavoidable. Thus, even the best mafiosos are often caught via behavioral analysis on D1. This is not to say everyone can spot tells, but just becuase you can't spot tells doesn't mean they don't exist. The trick is developing the ability to spot them.== What does behavioral analysis on D1 look like? ==The following quote comes from a game on mafiascum that F-16 recommended I use for purposes of illustrating good behavioral analysis on D1. I edited a couple posts together for the sake of readability. The substance of the analysis remains unchanged. Baboon, the subject of the analysis, was a hydra who flipped mafia after being lynched on D2. However, the analysis itself is from D1."Baboon's certainty that I'm scum is excessively high for the gamestate/reasoning. Their reasoning was: OMGUS + reactive play + a belief that I stole their idea. That reasoning does not square with their certainty, which is a scum-tell because it shows that their read is fake. How much weight would you give each point? OMGUS? I'd give it none. It's not a scum-tell, and Baboon are experienced enough not to give it much if any weight. Reactive play? Arguably more weight than OMGUS but still, not much, because I tend to be a reactive player sometimes. Stealing their idea? Nothing scummy about it. Does the behavior show that my thought process was contrived? No. Does it show that my behaviors are contrived? No. Does it have any pro-scum effect? No. Does it have any scum motivation? No. I could go down the list of ways to connect a behavior to scum. But it doesn't have any of them. It's a purely null behavior. But Baboon never considered much deeper than surface-level. And the weight Baboon gives these behaviors simply doesn't square with their certainty. Which shows that their thought process is contrived." [1]The analysis works by focusing on a major difference between town and mafia: the mafia must fake scumreads because they know who the town are. The result is mafia sometimes reveal a discrepancy between their degree of certaity and their provided reasoning. Town never have a discrepancy between their degree of certainty and their provided reasoning, because their degree of certainty is always a product of their reasoning.Mafia cannot know what degree of certainty a read should have because they cannot evaluate their reasoning fron an uninformed perspective. That produces a "tell" based on "objective inforation," i.e. mafia will sometimes understate or overstate their degree of certainty vis-a-vis their reasoning. Town can use this fact to find scum on D1 by analyzing behaviors.== Why analyze behavior on D1? ==(1) The town should lynch on D1.I think bossy agrees, but to be safe, here's two simple reasons to lynch on D1. First, town cannot predict ahead-of-time if it'll get to MYLO or LYLO. If you no lynch and then end up at MYLO, the town's down a possible mislynch. To ensure we use every possible mislynch every game, town should lynch on D1. Ultimately, lynching on D1 gives the town more control over who ends up at LYLO.Second, D1 lynches provide tons of behavioral information, because it's when the informational disparity between town and scum is greatest. That means the informed/uninformed dichotomy is at its strongest on D1, which makes the D1 lynch a goldmine of behavioral information to analyze in retrospect, and even during D1 itself.(2) Analyzing behavior increases the success of D1 lynches. It's "possible" to find scum through behaviors alone. The quote above from the mafiascum game is an example of this. F-16's WhiteFlag Nightless game is the best example of that on this site. The game had no roles or theme. The players had to rely solely on behaviors. The town steamrolled the scum. [2] Towns that use behavioral analysis on D1 lynch with a higher percentage success on D1 than if they were to lynch randomly. That makes behavioral analysis a useful tool which increases town's chance of winning.Sources:[1] http://forum.mafiascum.net...[2] http://www.debate.org...