The GOP will likely nominate a candidate with little to no major public office experience

Early polls 4 years ago Rick Perry had a 15 point lead in the polls around this same time. Meanwhile Ruck Perry was at 3% in the polls and carried 11 states. Going back 8 years ago, Mayor Giuliani was at 32% while Fred Thompson was at 26%. At the time the winner of the nomination John McCain was written off by almost everybody. The same year in the Democratic primary Hillary Clinton was leading now president Barack Obama 44% to 23%. What we can learn from this is that polls are meaningless. (All numbers are accurate and from the following source http://www.msnbc.com... ) The following chart by Chris Wlezian shows how well polls predict presidential candidates, tracking several major polls since 1956. With 0 indicating no predictive power and 1 indicating perfect predicting power. http://themonkeycage.org... http://themonkeycage.org... As you can see polls this far out are at close to zero in terms of predictability. The party Decides According to the Washington post; "(The) Party"s most powerful insiders and financiers have begun a behind-the-scenes campaign to draft....Jeb Bush into the 2016... race" "....most of 2012 GOP nominee....Romney"s major donors are reaching out to Bush and his confidants........to meet, according to interviews with 30 senior Republicans. One bundler estimated that the "vast majority" of Romney"s top 100 donors would back Bush." http://www.washingtonpost.com... Political scientists have known for a while that the party has major influence in who wins the nomination. A 2008 book by the name "Party Decides" has researched this by watching who the political elites back and finding ways to observe what's known as the invisible primary. The book/research concludes Candidates cannot win without endorsements by the party elite. Something the current GOP from runners do not have. According to political analyst Nate Cohn; "No factor has proved more important to a candidate"s chances than the loyalty of party elites. These elites are.....members of a broadly defined party apparatus: the operatives who sign up for the campaign, the donors who contribute money, the interest group leaders and elected officials who give endorsements and bestow credibility, or withhold it. When candidates hold an overwhelming advantage among party elites,they win" "The invisible primary leaders usually lead in fund-raising, often by a wide margin. They rack up more endorsements than their opponents, often more than all of their opponents combined. Few question whether they"re acceptable candidates, even if some harbor doubts: The candidates agree with, or accede to, the party"s consensus on the most important policy issues." http://mobile.nytimes.com... "For past candidates, elite support has been necessary, and unified party opposition has been fatal. Without elite support, an ordinary candidate can"t build a top campaign or raise big money or draw major attention from traditional media. Party opposition is even worse. It ensures a chorus of influential critics in the media and a well-funded opponent with endless resources for advertisements to echo the attacks. Grass-roots support and super PACs can help compensate for a lack of broad support, but they probably can"t overcome broad opposition. The voice of the elites is too strong and influential." http://mobile.nytimes.com... Conclusion In short, polls are useless, and the party elite choose the candidate, not the people. This means endorsements, and campaign contributors are better early indicators of who wins elections than early polls. My opponent has already went through great lengths to show how the current 3 candidates are outsiders of the GOP machine. These early polls are more about name recognition than anything else. Everybody knows who Trump and Ben Carson are. Fiorina benefited greatly from Trumps insults to her being big news. Once people start to know the other candidates and the political elite have spoken, these candidates will drop off the face of the Earth. In the next round I'll explain why my opponent has missed the pulse of the Republican Party by buying into the media hype, and himself being an outsider. In the mean time, good luck to you in your arguments Mr. Bench.