Debate.org version 3 will more likely than not be up and running by the time this debate concludes.

"Keep in mind, he must DEMONSTRATE that the probability is 50% or lower, yet all he is doing is providing criticisms on my arguments, but even through attacking my arguments, it doesn't bring us to the conclusion that it is indeed 50% or lower, hence, why I dictated that he needed some defense." The burden of proof falls upon my opponent. Firstly, I argue that the arguments of my opponent are invalid. Assuming that they are, I already win, with rebuttals against each claim of my opponent. However, it only makes my case stronger for me to have a defense, which I extrapolated mainly in my previous round. See defense section at the bottom of this round. "Furthermore, the purpose of "more likely than not" is that I acknowledge that I cannot provided conclusive evidence, but evidence that can demonstrate that my position (which is that V3 will be up) is likely true. CON's constant demand for conclusive evidence not only ignores the resolution, but my original request concerning the "intended debate" as well." To the contrary, my opponent must prove that it is certainly true that the probability of debate.org version 3.0 being up and running by the conclusion of this debate is at least 51%. It does not suffice to say that it is most likely that my opponent is correct. Either my opponent proves to be correct (in that debate.org version 3.0 to be up and running by the conclusion of this debate), or does not prove to be correct. Even if it is most likely that my opponent is correct, that does not make it certain for my opponent to indeed be correct. Again, the intended debate is subjective. I plan/have planned to argue against the resolution itself, according to what I have reasonably implied from it. The resolution either is proven to be true (i.e. that there is a 51% chance of it to be up and running), which would go in favor of my opponent, or the resolution is not proven to be true (i.e. that there is not necessarily a 51% chance of it being up and running), which would go in favor of me. In the Round 4 of my opponent, PRO claims to have to merely show that it is more likely that it will be more likely than not for it to be up and running. However, my opponent must instead prove that it is certainly more likely than not for it to be up and running. Essentially, my opponent either proves the resolution, or does not. Thus far, my opponent has failed to. "Regarding faith, faith would mean that I was intentionally making that claim without any intention of providing evidence." See previous round for my definition of faith for this debate. That which has no direct evidence, but is still believed, is considered to be faith. It has no proof. As shown in the resolution, my opponent has asserted that debate.org version 3.0 would more likely than not (51%) be up and running by the conclusion of this debate. I have validly rebutted against each bit of evidence presented to me, thus meaning the claim of my opponent is a matter of faith. Regarding the webmaster, whoever it is does not necessarily hold truth all of the time. The webmaster has the potential for fallibility. Projecting the probability to be precisely at least 51% because merely the webmaster says so is fallacious. "But credibility does boost likelihood (the purpose of this debate) of being correct. Not only that, but credible sources are sources which are correct MOST of the time." Though credibility might boost likelihood, who is to say what type of boost this might be? For example, it might be from 36% likely to 37% likely. Such, therefore, does not mean the event is MOST likely (more than 50%) to occur, but rather MORE likely to occur. Next, my opponent is seemingly claiming the webmaster to be this credible source. Can my opponent prove that, not only is this a credible source, but also that the webmaster is correct most of the time? If my opponent cannot, how is this to suffice as evidence? "Progression increases probability of completion…concludes that sooner is more likely than later." Again, the same applies. The likelihood may boost from 15% to 16%, for example, over the course of progression. This by no means concludes that event is more likely to occur merely because of potential progress made on it. "However, we know the project began, know the percentage has been increasing (as conceded by CON) and know that the webmaster is correct (51% or more) most of the time. Ergo, this would show that the percentage of completion was 51% or more." Again, the percentage may have been increasing, but not necessarily by what would be considered drastic. It could have been an extremely diminutive increase. As well, how is it known in this debate that the webmaster is correct most of the time? Ergo, my opponent has proven nothing favorable thus far. As well, my opponent must prove that it is certain that it is more likely than not (51%) that it will be up and running by the conclusion of this debate. "Potential/probability is based on observable evidence and changes depending on the evidence which is observed and taken into consideration." Next, my opponent has yet to prove that the evidence, the credibility of the webmaster, is indeed supportive evidence to verify the resolution. As well, with the burden of proof falling upon my opponent, it is the responsibility of my opponent to prove the resolution to indeed be true. Evidence that is not conclusive in proving the resolution for my opponent would not suffice to give my opponent the win. "But the side with the strongest evidence is the side with the strongest argument and the side with the strongest argument is the side which wins the debate." The side with the strongest argument, arguably, would not win the debate. This is dependent, however, of what my opponent means by "strongest." "I wanted to know what made this debate different from any other." When talking about this debate, I was not necessarily excluding other specific debates. "He is saying that he can reasonably show based on inductive reasoning that the resolution is false, thus, I challenge him to do this. At no point in this debate has he attempted to do this." See defense section at the bottom of this round. "I agree that there was subjectivity to SOME extent (incidentally, I also insinuated that deductive reasoning relies on inductive reasoning)." Deductive reasoning does not necessarily have to rely of inductive reasoning. For example: All apples are fruit. Some apples are red. Therefore some fruits are red. Inductive reasoning is not entirely subjective, but still is to an extent. DEFENSE: Given that inductive reasoning, in this debate, can lead to three separate potential conclusions: It might more likely than not be up sooner rather than later (perhaps because the webmaster said so). It might more likely than not be even longer (perhaps because it has taken this far since it was supposed to be up). Because both of the above could be true, but there is no current reason for one to quantitatively outweigh the other, there is a theoretical 50% chance for a given above option to be true (i.e. that it might be up sooner, or it might be up later). Thus, this option entails that it is unknown. The point is, inductive reasoning, itself, is what my defense relies on. Because inductive reasoning has given so many options for what could be potential, it is far too subjective to definitely say one is more right than another. There is not enough conclusive evidence to suffice. In order for my opponent to win, the latter two of the potential options must be invalidated. The potential for the former is not at least 51%, theoretically. Another point – 50.1%, for example, is also more likely than not. However, my opponent must prove the probability to be at least 51%. And what is this version 3 being spoken of? That ought to suffice for Round 4.