Minimum Wage should not increase to $15.

A note before beginning. Romanii made a mistake in his last round. His last source was supposed to be source 8: https://www.fas.org...I ask the voters not to hold this against my opponent. The reason for this being that I forgot to link my last two sources in R2, but was able to fix it because we reset the debate. Romanii did not recieve that fortune.R1: Unemployment.Romanii claims to have sources as well. However, he does nothing to specifically refute mine, or give the readers any reason to prefer his over mine. I must note that I used so many sources because it seems inappropriate to rely too much on meta-studies, which is the equilivant of saying "60+ sources defend me" without actually doing the work myself. It is my job to analyze my sources.Several flaws in J. Schmitt arise when being reviewed. The first is semantical in nature. The study claims 0.01% isn't large enough to matter ("little to none" impact), but that's 150,000 employees. The second error rests in how the study claims little impact, but assumes the impact is split across the whole population. The impact actually hits mostly only the MW workers. To explain, if the negative elasticity is only -0.1, this is "little to none," until you consider that 2.6% of all workers are MW (1). This means that almost half of all MW employment would disappear, as they would be the target of the negative elasticity. Neumark tends to focus on the elasticity of teenagers or MW workers only.We will return to this in the third flaw. The third flaw is in the conclusion, where they dismiss all other studies to focus only on two by pro-MW researchers.Perhaps the worst part of the study is that it doesn't aim to prove there is no impact. It asks why there is "little" impact. The study implies a much larger unemployment impact, but explains that the impact is softened by a number of business-side reactions, including prices increases and a reduction of higher wage incomes. Both of which are major negatives. The studies then explains that the tactics help companies avoid moderate incomes in MW. Keep that pinned for future reference.Card and Krueger's study, while well known, is incredibly flawed. The study focuses only on a singular industry. A study done by S. Hoffman and D. Trace (2) reviewed the same cases, taking into account a number of other industries and variables. They found that workers in Pennsylvania suffered more than workers in New Jersey. The CATO institution did a review of Krueger's book. They claimed that Krueger's methodology was flawed, as they based their results on a "before and after" style of review (where they called 400 restaurants before the MW increase, and then called again after), as opposed to conventional cross-examination and time-based studies (3). Krueger himself even stated that "I want to emphasize that my comments should not be interpreted as support for the position that increasing the MW is sound public policy" -Krueger, 1993 (3).The conclusion of Doucouliagos's study isn't that there is little to no impact, but that there is too much selection bias. The paper even claims that one of the biggest conclusions they came to was that there might be major negative impacts on employment, but that the white noise often found in economics, and selection bias, makes finding the answer hard. One of my studies, conducted by the CBO, took into account Doucouliago's study, and found a negative impact. When criticized by the White House, the CBO pointed to Doucouliago's study showing selection bias, and claimed that they reviewed all studies showing little to no effect on employment, and came to a lower impact estimate that still led to incredible dismemployment (4). According to a 2013 study, Nuemark took into account new economic science from Doucouliago's study, spatial heterogeneity and an updated evaluation of studies, and found that there is still a consensus in research that MW increases hurts employment (5).Much of the rest of Con's refutation is that the elasticity effect doesn't exist. He bases this on the logic that companies don't hire more because they can afford to (despite each of his own sources using the elasticity system). That logic doesn't follow... They do hire more when they can afford it (expansion and corporate growth). However, assume they don't, this doesn't mean they don't hire less as costs increase. I do not buy more food than I need when food prices go down, but I do buy less when it goes up. Con's only strength here is that employer's need the number of employees they have. Except it is wrong. Automation eliminates this claim. Most studies disproving this reviews the immediate effects of MW, and found no automation. This ignores basic praxeology. Automation is like buying a new car. When gas prices go up, you don't just buy a hybrid to match on the dot. However, after the costs double, it does speed up the rate at which you buy one (6). In fact, ThinkProgress also agrees that MW leads to more automation (although they see it as good.)(7) In fact, in 2011, McDonald's hired 64,000 Americans, but in Europe (with it's higher MWs), they replaced workers with 7,000 self-serve computers. They intend to do much the same in the US as well (8). Japan even has a restaurant where much of the work is automated by machines, and the workers act less like employees, and more like an assembly line (9).Con's next case relates to a study by Krueger countering Neumark's case. However, Neumark reviewed Krueger's study. He posted a response to the counter study in 1993 (10). They found most of Krueger's arguments uncompelling, but evaluated new evidence to account for the criticisms anyways. He found that the results still led to disemployment effects.Returning to the pinned note from earlier... A major issue with Con's sources is that they evaluate the absolute effect from increased MW, as opposed to relative effects. To explain, based on Con's studies, all increases in MW lead to X. This isn't true, as the effects from a $0.50 increase will be different than a $7.75 increase. So different, in fact, that a $0.50 wage increase could be good, and a $2.00 increase be bad. Many of my own studies account for this by measuring effects per percent wage increase. This allows them to find little effect from a $0.50 increase, but large effects elsewhere. Just because Krueger found no effect from a $0.90 increase (which was refuted) doesn't mean this situation remains the same under a $7.75 increase.R2: GDP Growth Con criticizes my chart comparing MW increases to GDP growth, as it uses nominal MW. However, I picked this stat for a reason. I wanted to show that when the Government specifically forces a raise in wages, it leads to a decrease in GDP growth. Natural wage increases via purchasing power and dollar strength are different from forced increases in wage. The difference between the two means you can't evaluate what happens during a government-enforced MW increase based on what happens during an inflation-based increase. As the value of $7.25 comes to equal $8.00 through monetary strength, the value of each purchase and dollar earned equally increases to pay for the cost. That being said, higher wages correlate with higher GDP growth, not because they lead to higher wages, but because higher growth is seen when dollar strength increases (as the amount of money stays the same in the economy, but it's PPP increases, therefore the economy looks bigger and is bigger.) Con's case is refuted through a simple understanding of the economy. If MW decreased, its because monetary value decreased, which would reflect in less GDP growth.Con makes an incorrect claim about my cases. I did NOT say two MW increases led to economic growth. Just that two didn't lead to less growth. One led to a bumpy economic situation in the mid 1990's, and the first one (in the 1940's) didn't lead to economic growth. The end of World War II did. That being said, pro is wrong to claim both took place before 1968. Even if they both did, his claim doesn't stand as 3 other increases took place before 1968 as well, and led to less growth. So in reality, 3 of the 4 increases before 1968 led to less GDP growth, and the fourth didn't lead to growth. Refuting Con's claim.Even then, Con's claim makes no sense. If MW values were decreasing, increasing it should lead to more economic growth. Con also misrepresents my first chart. I charted PPP MW to Average Earnings and showed that average wages increased as MW value went down. I will repost the chart here: P5: Inefficiency and Alternatives.Con dropped my case on the inefficiency of the MW, and the alternatives. My case stands that the demographics of MW makes it ineffictive. I have proven, unchallenged by Pro, that MW does not decrease poverty, and that it does not increase the wages of impoverishes families. However, increasing the EITC and CTC does decrease poverty, and is efficient and well targeted.Con has also dropped arguments on Corporate Tax Cuts, Increased Consumption, and Increased Productivity.Another inefficiency (as opposed to making a new P6 case), is turn over. Pro lists less turn over as a good thing. This isn't true. Turn over is what pushes employees up the latter. Replacing a $7.50 job for an $8.00 job and so on. Less turn over among MW earners mean less workers moving up the latter, away from MW. However, turn over for higher wage earners increases, as someone prior earning $14.00 for hard labor may accept a $15.00 job that is twice as easy as their own (which hurts teenagers who are as experienced.) This creates higher negative turn over among high wage jobs and less positive turn over in low wage jobs.Conclusion:The Resolution is affirmed. Minimum Wage increases do not reduce poverty or benefit the economy. It will have negative effects. Whereas the EITC is accurate and effective at helping the poor.Minimum Wage should not be increased to $15 an hour.Sources: http://pasted.co...