China is a serious, long term threat to American strategic interests.

I thank CON for a substantive argument, and I applaud his thirst for knowledge on this topic. However, while CON presents an excellent synopsis of China's current position in the world, there is scant historical depth in CON's synopsis. I will demonstrate that the history is extremely important in ascertaining the nature of China's ascendancy in the near and long term.I will present my case utilizing a hegemonic framework in an order of increasing importance - cultural, economic, political - vis a vis the US.For most historical references, I will use encyclopedia.com [1] utilizing the following format: (key word [source]). When the key word is absent, it denotes that it is the same as the word used in my argument.Hegemony and RealismThis framework has several core assumptions [2]:1) The international realm is anarchic2) States are the primary actors3) States cannot be certain of the intentions of other states4) All states have an offensive capacity5) States are rational and have survival as the primary goalUnder this framework, states can never be sure if another state will in some way do harm to each other. Therefore, the best way to minimize harm is to eliminate the potential for harm, usually through hegemony [1]. Hegemony involves dominance through whatever means are available. This will to dominate is inevitable, and is a given in my framework. The only real question is whether or not China will actually be able to usurp in a non-trivial fashion US dominance.The US currently has a near-global hegemony. The following map illustrates the point succinctly: (source: http://tinyurl.com...)- The US has permanent occupying forces in most European countries, and these European countries in turn have troops in Africa. One can draw a distinct border that comprises the US hegemony - only Russia and China, and maybe South America, are outside of this border. Iran looks ripe for the taking. India was a former British colony, and we have occupying troops in Britain.- US culture enjoys an unparalleled global audience - most large-budget Hollywood movies earn more overseas than they do in the US proper. - Economically, we are the largest economy in the world. The dollar is the reserve currency of choice. Wall Street's reach knows no bounds. - Politically, we are a key member in nearly every major international organization, and the UN, IMF, and World Bank are headquartered in the US.All I need to demonstrate in order to win this debate is that China poses a strong possibility of a non-trivial weakening of the US's hegemonic position - i.e., the "serious threat". I will argue that not only is this happening as we speak, but that this will continue for the foreseeable future, including the "long term" of several decades outward.Cultural HegemonyThis is probably the easiest to demonstrate. China's cultural impact easily threatens the weak vestiges of America's cultural hegemony in East/SE Asia, and potentially Central Asia and the Middle East.C1) Confucianism [1] is prevalent in SE Asia, Korea, and Japan. Former prime minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew is (in)famous for citing Confucian traditions as to how and why it has become successful, in direct contradistinction to Western traditions [3]. Qufu, the Confucian "holy site", is in China. Confucius was Chinese. The implications for US hegemony in Confucianist countries are self-evident - Confucianist countries would naturally gravitate towards each other, with China as the dominant and founding entity.C2) Buddhism [1] is much stronger in China than in India, its country of origin, much like how Christianity is much stronger in Europe than in Israel. Most Buddhist countries in East/SE Asia share more characteristics with Chinese culture than Indian culture because of the strong Buddhist traditions embraced by China. Regarding implications for US hegemony, see C1 above. This minimizes the impact of CON's arguments regarding Tibet, a Buddhist theocracy. This also strengthens ties between China and India, the world's two most populous countries.C3) Taoism [1] is also a homegrown Chinese religion prevalent in East Asia, particularly Japan and Korea [4]. For implications to US hegemony, see C1.C4) China also has Islamic traditions spanning centuries; up to one-tenth of China's population may be considered Muslim (Islam [1]). One of the most famous admirals in Chinese history was Hui Muslim (Cheng Ho [1]). One of the oldest mosques in the world is in China, built by a companion of Mohammad himself, Sa`d ibn Abi Waqqas. [5] This has enormous implications as to how China could spread cultural influence globally outside of its traditional sphere of influence in East Asia.The US presence in Islamic countries is tenuous at best. If China were to fully embrace Islam for whatever reason, the potential for a near-permanent Middle-East/Central Asia/China alliance becomes much more pronounced. This is easily possible - over 100 years of constant civil strife, culminated in the cultural cleansing we call the Cultural Revolution (look at second tab, [1]), has essentially left the Chinese devoid of spirituality - they are ripe for embracing a universal religion like Christianity or Islam. By embracing Islam, a religion with which it already has tradition and familiarity, China easily can become a "serious threat" to the US in that it may find easy partners in states like Iraq and Saudi Arabia that, while hosting US troops, have been antagonistic to the US presence. The US has no credible cultural counter to this. We fear Arabs in our midst in hushed whispers, and the POTUS's middle name is considered unspeakable.Islam is currently the world's second most populous religion, not including China [6]. Add China into this, and you get the real possibility of a global Islamic cultural resurgence.C5) Unlike the West, which has a monopolistic religious tradition under the banner of Christianity, China and its neighbors has a syncretic tradition (syncretic [1]); the religiosity of Taoism and Buddhism and the philosophy of Confucianism merge to form a complex moral and ethical tradition shared by many in the region. This syncretic tradition is capable of accommodating external traditions like Buddhism and potentially Islam without social upheaval. Even without considering Islam, China's pre-existing, shared syncretic traditions dramatically lessens the impact of Japanese, Korean, and SE Asian antagonism against China.C6) China is already threatening US hegemony culturally and economically in countries with which China shares cultural aspects. As illustrated above, China tends to dominate in these cultural aspects. With a growing economy and a reassertion of its cultural traditions post-Cultural Revolution that may possibly further incorporate Islam into its syncretic traditions, the US hegemonic presence will become further threatened in these regions. This is a multi-millennial, long-term trend, one that has experienced a noticeable depression since China's contact with the West, and one that has reasserted its original expansionistic trajectory since Mao's ascension.C7) CON's points about domestic instability are way overblown; CON has fallen victim to intellectualist propaganda on this subject. The Chinese overwhelmingly identify themselves as ethnically Han [7], not "coastal" versus "inland". CON's claim that Mao was a result of regional differences is false - from 1911-1950 China waged de facto civil war. This conflict and the causes of it precede Mao and are irrelevant to regionalism. I will expound on this later.---Next round, I will present China's global challenge in economic and political contexts. I reserve the right to further rebut CON's other round #2 points later, so please do not consider them drops. Thank you.[1] http://www.encyclopedia.com...[2] http://tinyurl.com...[3] http://tinyurl.com... [4] http://tinyurl.com...[5] http://tinyurl.com... [6] http://tinyurl.com...[7] http://tinyurl.com...