A creator/creators probably exists

The main disagreements during this debate were over the claim that we should assume a priori that the probability of a god is 50%, that god vs. random chance is a valid dichotomy, and that the probability of life arising without a god has been shown to be extremely small. I will summarize my rebuttals to all of Pro’s main points and expand where necessary. The probability of a creator should be assumed to be 50/50 a priori. Strangely, Pro accuses me of arguing that probability depends on personal bias when that is exactly what I have been objecting to throughout the debate. Pro does not realize that his assertion that the probability of god is 50% if we assume no information is actually a belief statement about a probability based entirely on personal bias. I explained in round 3 why it is logically invalid to assume a probability distribution and then refer to it as the true probability distribution of a set of outcomes. The main reason is that there is no mathematically valid way of computing a probability or probability distribution when there is no data, according to everything that is known in probability theory and statistics. However, I did spend a significant number of characters explaining to Pro how he could potentially salvage his invalid premise. The use of a Bayesian prior allows for a mathematically valid way of defining formalizing one’s belief about a probability distribution and then conducting inference using that belief and updating that belief towards the true probability distribution given evidence. Pro has seemingly ignored the entirety of this rebuttal and has instead chosen to repeat his assertion and claim that I am ignorant of probability theory. It should be obvious to the reader that Pro has not met his BoP with respect to the question of whether the probability of a creator should be assumed 50% a priori. The probability of life arising by chance (and the false dichotomy therein) Pro ends his final round relying entirely on a set of contradictory and arbitrary assertions vaguely related to the creationist’s blog post on the probability of life arising by chance, which he cited in round 3 First I will reiterate that this assertion is founded on a false dichotomy. Pro has not responded to my case in round 2 that this is a false dichotomy that does not serve his side of the debate unless he can demonstrate that the only alternative to a creator of life is random chance. I offered two alternative possibilities, undirected determinism and stochastic processes (which can be thought of as chaotic partially deterministic processes based on random variables, but are themselves, not random in the sense that Pro is using or in the way random is defined mathematically). To be clear, if one studies any field of natural science, then they will see that there are zero scientific models of the emergence of natural phenomena that involve a creator, and there are zero scientific models of the emergence of natural phenomena that are based on pure random chance. Therefore it stands to reason that science is largely based on alternative options (namely the ones which I have offered) to the ones proposed in Pro’s dichotomy. Therefore every scientific model of natural processes refutes Pro’s dichotomy. Pro goes on to state some probabilities for the two options in the false dichotomy he proposes. As far as I can tell, these are completely arbitrary numbers (even contradicting the only source of this probability Pro cites). For the time being, let’s take both of pros arbitrary probabilities as true. We quickly find a contradiction. The total probability of a set of options cannot be greater than 1, so if one of two mutually exclusive options has a probability of 1, then the other option cannot have a probability of more than 0 by definition. Pro’s stated probabilities sum to greater than 1, so we must no longer be talking about probabilities at all, or even beliefs about probabilities. Pro makes the same mistake with the assumption of 1/2 probability as well, where his total “probability” distribution sums to 1.5. Finally, I will expand on why the calculation of the probability of life coming about without a creator in the blog post Pro cited in round 3 is incorrect and mathematically unsound: 1) It assumes that the type of life found on Earth is the only possible kind of life when in fact there are plausible theoretical models of other kinds of life which may be possible in the universe (e.g. methane-based life). 2) The calculation assumes that we know all of the necessary conditions for life and that we know the probabilities of meeting this conditions in the universe. In fact, the conditions necessary for life and their probabilities are unknown, and the blogger does nothing to justify these (for example, how does the blogger know that the probability of finding the right quantity of silicic acid in planet’s oceans is exactly 10% if we don’t know the distribution of silicic acid on planets in the universe (we don’t have that level of technology) and if we don’t even know what level of silicic acid is required for extraterrestrial life?). 3) The calculation assumes that each of these conditions are mutually statistically independent. That is, there is no relationship between any of these conditions. So, for example, when the blogger says that the probability of the correct timing of peak star formation for the universe is 20% (it is curious how he knows this – perhaps direct revelation from God?) and the probability for correct timing of peak star formation for the galaxy is also 20%, his calculation assumes that these two things are unrelated. It is quite clear that the timing of star formation of the universe and in the galaxy are related. In a second example, the blogger says the probability of the correct (again, how does he know what is correct for all life in the universe) amount of C02 in the atmosphere is 1%, the probability of the correct amount of oxygen is 1%, yet the probability of the correct ratio of oxygen to C02 in the atmosphere is 10%. Again, his calculation assumes these are all unrelated to each other. Is it logically possible that the amount of oxygen and C02 in the atmosphere are unrelated to the ratio of oxygen and C02? Remember that oxygen is in C02. The blogger makes similar illogical assumptions about the composition of the planet’s crust, about the solar system, etc. 4) Just as an interesting note: the blogger says this is a “probability estimate for attaining the necessary characteristics for a life support body”. However, one of the characteristics is the position and mass of Jupiter relative to Earth (which apparently has a 1% probability). I didn’t realize life on planets in other galaxies depended on Earth and Jupiter. Mathematically speaking, the probability of a set of conditions being met simultaneously is the first term in the following equation, and it is calculated by the middle product of terms, which is greater than or equal to the simpler product on the right side. The second and last formulae are equal only when statistical independence is true, which is what the blogger assumed. Since it is quite obvious this assumption is invalid, then we know with certainty that even if he somehow got all of the factors and probabilities correct by guessing them, that he is underestimating the probability. Conclusion: Simply put, Pro has not made any strong argument, all of his assumptions and assertions were refuted, and he did not attempt to argue against any of my rebuttals. Pro has not met his BoP. A final remark, Pro has also implicitly conceded that his “proof” (example of a sharpened and hardened wooden stick) that purposeful creation is more likely than non-purposeful creation has been refuted. Pro also does not address the refutation of his claim that more complex objects more strongly indicate a creator.