DDO Olympics: Science

Thanks to Con for an informative argument. I agree with many of the points presented but I will press a few points for being to pessimistic with respect to the possibility of many forms of life. I disagree that I have made this debate semantic. My section on human intelligence being varied may press the spirit of the debate but I do not expect it to have a strong impact in and of itself. My version of the resolution was quite literal. Semantics I disagree with Con’s usage of the word many and agree that this is pushing a semantic argument. This is a colloquial term and in no context would refer to 10^24 and there is no reason to compare the number of intelligent forms of life with the number of planets. If I say that there are many planets in the known universe that would not in any way communicate the vast incomprehensible number to anyone not aware of the figure. There are clearly many intelligent life forms of life on earth and those who study the issue agree that there are likely many forms of intelligent extraterrestrial life as well. The google definition elaborates adding several synonyms of many: “a large number of. "many people agreed with her" synonyms: numerous, a great/good deal of, a lot of, plenty of, countless, innumerable, scores of, crowds of, droves of, an army of, a horde of, a multitude of, a multiplicity of, multitudinous, multiple, untold; More.” Any synonym can be applied to the large amount of life both on earth and predicted in the rest of the universe. I strongly disagree that intelligence requires language but language can definitely indicate a complex intelligence. No standard definition of intelligence requires a language and, as I pointed out, Con’s cited source to argue for the need of a language acknowledges that dolphins, chimpanzees and bonobos are intelligent [15]. The indication that language is a requirement only indicates what form of intelligent life scientists are looking for. Without advanced communication and technology the search is pointless simply because space is too vast to search without some kind of emitted signal released by technology. For the most part, I concede Con’s point. Intelligent life is not common in the sense that it is a very large number when compared to the number of planets and there is no reason to suspect that this was implied by the resolution. I have set a range for the number of planets that contain life anywhere from 1.25*10^16 to 4*10^18 which are small in comparison to the number of planets or the atoms in a glass of water. Why should the magnitude of life be compared against planets vastly different from earth? The vast empty vacuum of space and the scorching surface of stars are also hostile to life. Does this mean that there cannot be many forms of intelligent life because the majority of the volume of the universe cannot support life? No, there is no reason to compare the vast numerous forms of intelligent life with the hostile universe and conclude there cannot be many because there is a vastly larger void empty of life. There are many people on earth. This is in no way disproven when you realize there are more insects in a square mile than there are people in the United States [16] or that the vast majority of other animals are in fact insects. Con is objecting to two variables in the drake equation. To clarify here is a list of the factors that are multiplied to estimate the number of planets in our galaxy that are capable of interstellar communication: • N is the number of currently active, communicative civilizations in our galaxy. • R is the rate at which stars form in our galaxy. • fp is the fraction of stars with planets. • ne is the number of planets that can potentially host life, per star that has planets. • fl is the fraction of the above that actually do develop life of any kind. • fi is the fraction of the above that develop intelligent life. • fc is the fraction of the above that develop the capacity for interstellar communication. • L is the length of time that such communicative civilizations are active. Leading to the equation to estimate the number of planets with interstellar communication. N = R*fp*ne*fl*ny*fi*fc*L In the previous round I substituted L for a conservative estimate of the amount of time that many forms of intelligent life have existed here on earth (200 million years). I also multiplied by the total number of estimated galaxies. Con has argued that large portion of galaxies cannot support life. Even if only 5% of each galaxy can this does not diminish the mind-boggling figures noticeably enough to affect the resolution. Con has also argued that ne, the number of planets per star with planets, is low. How low? I have used a range from 1-2 to establish a range but suppose the number is closer to 0.01-0.02. This only reduces the estimated number of intelligent life forms by two orders of magnitude. Further, Con has argued that fl, fi and fc are quite small meaning the fraction of planets that will develop life, intelligent life and interstellar communication are low. Notice I did not initially omit the fraction of planets that will develop interstellar communication keeping the estimate range of intelligent life low since this is not necessary to demonstrate intelligence. The probability of life forming initially may be quite high since life first formed very quickly on earth. Con essentially argues that since we do not understand the mechanisms the formation of life is unlikely. The fact remains that intelligent life exploded in vast variety on the sole planet we can observe that has the ideal conditions for DNA based life [19]. The simplest forms of animals have some level of intelligence There are around 1.2 million non-insect species of animal currently living on earth [16,18]. 99.9% of animals have gone extinct [17] and life has been varied since the Cambrian explosion around 542 million years ago. Animals all demonstrate some level of learning, problem solving and an ability to adjust to new situations i.e. some level of intelligence. As I mentioned, I did not initially omit one key fraction from the drake equation: the fraction of planets that develop interstellar communication. This is clearly a sign of a complex intelligence on par with humans and this is the form of life that scientists currently would be capable of identifying from a distance. Omitting this term, as it is not a requirement for intelligent life, and multiplying by the number of intelligent species currently residing on earth and we have a range of 1.5*10^24 to 4.8*10^25 forms of intelligent life in the universe. 100,000 could easily be characterized as being ‘many.’ The lowest estimates are a full18 orders of magnitude above this figure and the resolution is satisfied. Let’s take a worst-case scenario where the fraction of life that forms interstellar communication is omitted and the number of current intelligent species on earth is taken into account. Since Con has challenged ne, fl and fi I will assume drastically low values for these far lower than anyone is suggesting multiplying the low estimates for these values by 0.0001. in this case: R = 5, fp = .05, ne = 0.0001, fl = 0.00005 and fi = 0.000001 and again multiplying by the time frame of intelligent life’s existence on earth, the number of intelligent species and the estimated number of galaxies in the Universe and we are still left with 1.5*10^11 forms of intelligent life. There are many forms of intelligent life on earth and, in all likelihood, the universe is teaming with extraterrestrial life as well. [15] http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu... [16] http://insectzoo.msstate.edu... [17] http://en.wikipedia.org... [18] http://www.sciencedaily.com... [19] http://en.wikipedia.org...