Mankind Is Not the Main Cause of Global Warming

I have decided to amend my debate structure a bit to fit the purpose of this debate. This round, I will post arguments for a natural cause. In the next round, I will post arguments against an anthropogenic cause. And in the final round, I will consider the most important material from both cases. The Sun The sun is the source for all the heat that the Earth receives. It is only natural to expect that fluctuations in the climate can be determined by the amount of solar activity. Unfortunately, the solar connection to climate Is not very well understood. However, there is a number of separate pieces of evidence, both direct and indirect, that indicate that the sun is the only cause of climate change on Earth. A graph of total solar irradiance is shown below: [1] The low periods (the first one being the Maunder minimum and the second one being the Dalton minimum) correspond to documented colder periods in human history. In fact, the time of the Maunder minimum corresponded to the little ice age, when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. [2] The correlation between solar activity and climate continued into the 20th century, and continues to this day. There are a number of methods to measure solar activity, the best one arguably being solar cycle length. Between raw solar activity (solar irradiance) and temperature, temperature lags about 7.5-10 years behind solar irradiance because of the heat capacity of the oceans. A better representation of the sun/temperature correlation is the length of the solar cycle. "This new parameter not only indicated a remarkably high correlation coefficient between solar activity and temperature (on the order of 0.95), but it also eliminated the problem of the 7-year lag encountered by Reid. "[3] Here is a graph showing solar cycle length against temperature: [4] The correlation between the two is striking. There is obviously correlation. Like I said before, what is not well understood is the method of causation between the two. However, we can be certain that the sun has an obvious effect on the climate, and this is shown wonderfully above. The effect of solar activity is amplified through cosmic rays. Experiments have shown that cosmic rays increase cloud cover, that increased cloud cover lowers global temperature, and that solar activity reduces the amount of cosmic rays that strike the Earth. An experiment at CERN shows the first hypothesis: “Scientists found that when shielding was removed and natural cosmic rays allowed to hit the chamber, cloud seeding increased dramatically, and it increased substantially again when additional artificial cosmic rays were added. ” Experiments in the atmosphere further confirm this: “Preliminary results show that these faux cosmic rays indeed have an effect on the atmosphere: When high energy protons stream in, production of nanometer-sized particles in the atmosphere increases by more than ten times. ”[5][6] It is commonly accepted that greater amounts of clouds lower global temperature, because they block some of the solar radiation. Indeed, over the past couple of decades, cloud cover has decreased. [7] As for the final hypothesis that solar activity is correlated with cosmic rays, it is known that cosmic rays come from space, and that higher solar activity means that the sun has a stronger magnetic field, and that this stronger magnetic field deflects more of the cosmic rays reaching Earth. “Over the period between 1975 and 1989, he found cosmic rays decreased by 1.2 percent annually, amplifying the sun's change in irradiance about four-fold. ”[8] This graph shows both the inverse correlation between cosmic rays and low clouds and solar activity: [9] The effect of solar activity on the climate can be partially explained by the role of ocean currents. “This [solar activity] is the single most important cause [of ocean currents and their temperatures]. The Sun provides the bulk of the energy which drives the circulation of water in the oceans, either directly or indirectly (through winds). The uneven distribution of solar energy across the globe (highest at the equator, decreasing towards the poles) produces an uneven heating of water in the ocean. ”[12] The r^2 correlation between ocean current anomalies and temperature is 0.83, which is considered a good correlation, and considering ocean current's dependence on the solar cycle (which is rather similar to the 27-year solar cycle, I might add), this proves yet another piece of evidence linking solar activity with the climate. [13] Here is a graph showing ocean current anomalies compared with temperature: [13] Another piece of evidence in favor of a solar cause to global warming is an analysis of other bodies in the solar system, for if the Earth is warming, shouldn't the other bodies in the solar system also be warming? “In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun. ”[10] This is not just an isolated incident. Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Io, Europa, Ganymede, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Trition, and Pluto have all shown signs that they are warming (if I have space in my round 4 argument, I'll elaborate on this). [11] “If the Scafetta and West analysis used the uncontaminated satellite data since 1980, the results would show that the Sun has contributed at least 75% of the global warming of the last century. ” And this is just a minimum estimate. If this is true (which it seems like it is considering the arguments above), the debate has already been decided. The 1500-Year Cycle In addition to cycles of interglacials and ice ages, there seems to be a 1500-year climate cycle, where the climate goes from a period of warmer temperature, to a period of colder temperature, and back again to a period of warmer temperature, the entire process taking 1500 years to repeat. Where do these cycles come from? There's no 1500 year solar cycle. However, there are 87 and 210 solar cycles, and superimposing the two cycles produces the 1500 year cycle. [14] This graph shows the most recent 1500-year cycle: Many of the previous warmings (the Minoan warming, Roman warming, and Medieval warming), were as warm, if not warmer than the current climate. This, combined with the correlation evidence between solar activity and the climate, indicates that the current episode of global warming is nothing more than another cycle of the 1500-year cycle. There are numerous pieces of evidence for each of these warmings, as well as illustrations of the cycle. One such piece of evidence is, “The scientists found evidence that on average, every 1,470 years, plus or minus 500 years, cold, ice-bearing waters, which today circulate around southern Greenland, pushed as far south as Great Britain. ”[8] There seems to be a full cycle of up-down-up temperatures of the climate every 1470 years. And this goes as far back as at least 1 million years ago. Currently, we are in an upswing of temperatures, just coming off of the Little Ice Age, the peak to be in a few hundred years, making the peak-to-peak difference between today's global warming and the Medieval Warm Period a little less than 1500 years. So today's Global Warming is a natural, cyclical occurrence. Conclusion Global warming is caused by an increase in solar activity. There is both correlation and causation between solar activity and global temperature. The sun's effects on cosmic rays amplify the correlation, and the ocean current's cycles and correlation with temperature back up the idea. This hypothesis is backed up further by evidence that other bodies in the solar system are warming. The climate of the Earth fluctuates in 1500-year cycles, that correspond to a superposition of solar cycles. The Sun has been more active in the last 100 years than in the last 500, and this is exemplified in the fact that we are going through a warm period. There's perfectly good reason to suppose that the current warming, similar to all the other previous warmings in magnitude and initial conditions (solar activity) was caused by the sun. In the next round, I will present arguments against an anthropogenic cause to global warming. Sources [1]: . http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov...[2]: . http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...[3]: . http://www.colby.edu...[4]: . http://paulmacrae.com...[5]: . http://www.forbes.com...[6]: . http://www.popsci.com...[7]: . http://wattsupwiththat.com...[8]: Singer, S. Fred, and Dennis T. Avery: "Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years. "[9]: . http://climatereview.net...[10]: . http://news.nationalgeographic.com...[11]: . http://prof77.wordpress.com...[12]: . http://essayweb.net...[13]: . http://wattsupwiththat.com...[14]: . http://www.nature.com...