A nuclear attack will likely take place on US soil in the next ten years

Thank you for your response :) ~"Actually, I'm very surpised that America has not been already attacked with nuclear power." In other words, your theory predicts they already should have, and they haven't, therefore, your theory is missing some data. :)~ Just because I'm surprised America hasn't been nuked doesn't mean I'm saying it won't be nuked in the next ten years. The latter is what I believe. ~Al Qaeda are, in case you haven't noticed, Muslims. Several members of the American religious right have proposed nuking Mecca in the event of a nuclear attack on US soil. The religious right is an ideological group with a significant amount of influence in the US military, there is a possibility for them to perform such a bombing in the chaos that would result from a nuclear attack. Al Qaeda would not want to be responsible for the bombing of their holy site, presumably, therefore, they do in fact have such a reason-- it may or may not be sufficient, though the difficulty of performing such an attack doesn't help make it look any more attractive.~ I deeply doubt that any intelligent being would nuke Mecca as a revenge. 1) It would initiate a third world war instantly, no questions asked. If Muslims were O-U-T-R-A-G-E-D by cartoons, think what this would do ;) 2) Since we now have a liberal majority in the Senate and we have a liberal president who is anti-war, I doubt that such action would be taken. ~You concede, then that the resolution is undemonstrable, since "Likely" is a reference to probability.~ Probability is not always based on numbers. The jury don't listen to numbers, but they analyze the evidence and decide whether or not the accused is guilty. In this case I'm basing my prediction on evidence, not mathematical calculations. ~Easy you have not demonstrated. Possible you have, but possible and likely are different things, and it's the burden of the latter's demonstration that is resting on you.~ Okay. Here we go (again.) Question: But how could nuclear bombs get into USA? Answer: There are many possible ways it could come here without anyone ever knowing. It could come in as sea cargo. Less than 5% of sea cargo coming into America are inspected. It could also come in as air cargo. FedEx, UPS and UPSP are not inspected! It could come in across borders. Only a few border guards have equipment to detect radioactive material and even fewer know how to use them! So, if it would come in as sea cargo there would be a 95% probability that it would never even be inspected. If it would come in here via FedEx, UPS or UPSP, it would never be inspected. That would make the probability of it NOT getting caught around 99-100%. In other words, there would only be around 1% chance that it would be found. Across the borders: This one's a little harder. However, I deeply doubt that every single border guard scans every single backpack etc for radioactive material such as uranium or plutonium. Possibility is harder to count, but getting the "package" through would be quite easy. ~Your oversimplifying sources notwithstanding, the best efforts of several significant countries have had difficulty with the task.~ Go to www.google.com and type in (without the quote marks) "how to build a nuclear bomb frank barnaby". The only thing that the countries struggle in getting nukes is: 1) Enriching uranium 2) Getting enough of plutonium/uranium If I'd have uranium and a decent set of instructions (which you can buy for around five bucks at www.amazon.com), I probably could build a nuclear bomb myself. All I need is plutonium/uranium and a set of instructions (for example "How to Build a Nuclear Bomb"). Or, as I said, when Iran is finished with its nukes, they could give a complete warhead over to Al Queda or someone else. As I said in my previous message, if Al Queda doesn't have the acces to nuclear material, they could just wait for a year or two for Iran to finish its nukes. Then a warhead could be smuggled into the US and detonated in, New York for example. Casualties would be in millions. The worst impact would probably be the terror, not the detonation itself. And If Al Queda were to detonate it at Washington, D.C., they would kill most of the goverment. "Cut off the head of the snake and the body dies."