A nuclear attack will likely take place on US soil in the next ten years

We already know your propensity to lie about such things, given that you are 20 years old and claim to have 40 years of experience in the nuclear industry. You are hardly, therefore, a credible source.~ And when did I say I have spent 40 years on the nuclear industry? If I'd have uranium/plutonium and a decent set of instructions, I could easily build a nuclear weapon. ~Which is why it doesn't predict the likelihood of anything. And keep in mind it's still insufficient evidence, given the lack of precedent.~ As I said, likelihood is NOT always based on numbers, but sometimes evidence. ~Since when does the president have exclusive factual control over all nuclear buttons? Legal control maybe, but all it takes is ONE criminal fanatic somewhere around NORAD. As I've said, the religious right plays a prominent ideological role in the US military, and the religious right are quite susceptible to the impression that third world war = Apocalypse = Jesus comes down from heaven and lifts up the faithful. Al Qaeda didn't get where it is without learning what kind of people it hates.~ Only the president has the codes needed to launch the nuclear arsenal. Without them, it is impossible for anyone to do anything with America's nukes. ~Ipse dixet. "Reasonable doubt" does not refer to a specific probability. Probability indeed solely has meaning in terms of numbers, the term "Likely" unless clarified when set forth means any number over 50% may refer to the chance of something occurred.~ In this case, "likely" is based on evidence. I'm sure that someone could calculate the probability, but I can't. ~By the way, the top rated review for Barnaby's book on amazon.com says specifically that it is not a manual for bomb producers.~ Actually, there are two top rated reviews. One says it is accurate and the other one says it's not. Since I've never read it, I suggest you flip a coin and place your bets. Let me summarize my case. Question: How easy would it be for terrorists get uranium/plutonium or a warhead into America? Answer: Very easy. If they would ship it via air cargo using UPS, FedEx or UPSP, there would be almost a 100% chance it would get through unnoticed because the companies I mentioned are not inspected. If they would ship it via sea cargo, there would be a 95% chance it would get through unnoticed because less than 5% of sea cargo coming into US is inspected. It they would bring it from, let's say, Mexico or Canada, it would still be very easy to get it through unnoticed because only a few border guards have instruments to detect radiation and even fewer know how to use them. Question: Okay, it is easy to get a warhead or uranium/plutonium into America. But where would they hide the uranium or plutonium? Answer: Easy. To make a nuclear device that has power equal to those detonated in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, you only need: 1) Six 12-ounce cans filled with uranium 2) A coconut filled with plutonium If the unlikely happened and by some twist of fate the packages would be inspected, no one would really suspect a six-pack of Coke or a coconut, right? Question: I understand. It would be very easy to get the materials for building a nuclear bomb over to USA. But how would they build it? Answer: They could go to www.amazon.com and buy a book called "How to build a nuclear weapon and other weapons of mass destruction" for around 5 bucks. After a week or so they would have detailed instructions for building a nuke, and since they have the material... Question: But how would they detonate it...? Answer: They could rent a car and throw the nuclear device on the back seat or the trunk. Optionally they could just make a "suitcase bomb", walk downtown, press a button, and voila. Conclusion: It is extremely easy to smuggle uranium/plutonium to USA without anyone noticing. It would also be very easy to build a nuclear device after smuggling uranium into America. It would also be extremely easy to detonate the bomb in the middle of a large city. ~Evidently you know nothing about Islam. Iran and Al Qaeda have some diplomacy, but they don't get along well-- Iran is a Shia theocracy, Al Qaeda is Sunni. They are unlikely to cooperate on something as important as a nuclear weapon, especially given that Iran would in fact then be subject to MAD doctrine, except of course that they have a low capacity for manufacturing such things, so it's more like "Their assured destruction for our one problem."~ Well, I'm sure there are hundreds of different terrorist organizations out there that are Shia. And how could the nuke ever be traced back to Iran? Terrorist organizations don't have a return address.