Prompt Global Strike

== Rebuttals == 1. Pro admits that risking nuclear war is a chief concern, yet says these risk can be avoided. They mention things like new START treaties, international inspections of CPGS sites, and developing new trajectories that avoid contested airspace. These things might help, but they will not eliminate the risk of misinterpretation. Treaties can be broken, and according to Pro's source, Russia has already expressed grave concerns about the CPGS program under the New START treaty [1]. International inspections would do little more than ensure that CPGS weapons were non-nuclear at the moment of inspection. Nothing would prevent the U.S. from quickly swapping conventional warheads with nuclear ones between inspections, and a cautious Russian defense strategy would surely suspect such a move. If a CPGS launches without warning 2 months after the last inspection, China is back to square one - is it nuclear, or conventional? From China's perspective, it would be reckless to assume that America "probably" didn't switch the warheads. Finally, new trajectories would do little to calm fears. A CPGS missile is designed to change course in mid-flight if needed, so a calculated trajectory means almost nothing. Furthermore, this mitigation requires that other nations will assume that "conventional" trajectories indicate conventional warheads. This is asking our nuclear armed rivals to place a great deal of trust in the U.S., which prudence dictates they remain cautions of. Pro says there has always been a risk of nuclear war since 1945, and we got through the Cold War just fine. But the difference is, we got through the Cold War by never actually launching any missiles. CPGS is designed to be launched - multiple times, without warning. The world has never had to react to a real-life ICBM launch, and the potential for panic is very high. The bottom line is this: All the mitigations in the world go out the window once a missile is in the air. CPGS is designed to strike almost instantly without warning. This deprives rival nations the time to assess the threat and select a response. They will have to choose between trusting the U.S. or playing it safe, and playing it safe is always the best bet. An instant strike mandates an instant response, and we may not like the outcome. The risks outweigh the rewards. 2. Killing terrorists - Pro says CPGS would be a great weapon for killing terrorist leaders. Maybe so, but I contest that killing a terrorist in Yemen with a U.S. based ICBM is like killing an ant with a jackhammer - it's unnecessary. Drones are already doing a great job delivering small payload precision strikes against time sensitive targets. Any range limitations or time delays in drone platforms can be overcome by further investment in this already effective technology. Funneling that investment into a multi-billion dollar experimental weapon called CPGS is unnecessary and impractical. We already have a technology that works, it would be silly to switch to something completely different. Pro cites missing Bin Laden in a Tomahawk strike "by some hours" as justification for developing CPGS. But misses would still happen with CPGS - misses will always happen no matter which weapon you use. This is because at the end of the day, the enemy gets a vote too, the enemy can be unpredictable and evade detection, and he will try to do so at every turn. One easy evasion is to hide in cities (which terrorists already do). The U.S. would never launch an ICBM into a city just to kill one terrorist - the collateral damage would be catastrophic. So my question remains - when would we ever use CPGS? 3. Strategic paralysis - Pro says CPGS is great for disabling a nation's centers of gravity and forcing an enemy to negotiate without using ground troops. That is a fantasy that, I fear, military commanders will continue to dream about until the end of time. There has never been a single war since the invention of airborne weapons where a nation was forced to the negotiating table through air power alone. Not WWI, not WWII, not Korea, not Vietnam, not Kosovo, and no, not even Desert Storm. Destruction from the air, even very heavy destruction, always plays a supplementary role to ground forces. In war after war, enemies prove remarkably resistant to infrastructure bombing. Any nation that can be brought to its knees with air power alone would never attack the U.S. in the first place - that would be a truly foolish endeavor. 4. $$$ - Pro says CPGS is less expensive than maneuvering US ground troops. That may be true, but we must keep in mind that CPGS would be an expense in ADDITION to already existing ground forces, not IN PLACE of them. The US would never say, "well, we have CPGS now, time to cut the Army and Marines in half." To the contrary - the very nature of the asymmetric warfare that Pro cites demands that we maintain, and even expand, our global military presence. CPGS would be an added expense to an already overstretched defense budget, and an unnecessary one at that. 5. OODA loops and hasty decision making - Pro says essentially that the faster we are, the better we are. They actually use the term "blitzkrieg" in describing CPGS. I wish to point out however, that blitzkrieg often produces serious strategic problems after gaining initial tactical success, as the Germans found out many times in WWII. Pro cites Boyd's "OODA Loop" as necessary for gaining advantage in combat. OODA stands for "Observe, Orient, Decide, Act." No one would doubt that making fast decisions is essential in war - but that speed is only helpful up to a certain point. It takes time to observe, orient, decide, and act, and when you go through the OODA loop too fast you begin to make mistakes. Under 60 minutes is too fast to correctly observe, orient, decide, and act intelligently to an intercontinental ballistic missile. Mistakes will undoubtedly be made which could be catastrophic. Boyd advocated quick decision making, he did not advocate instant decision making. I once again propose that taking a few hours or days to progress through the OODA loop with existing technology is much preferred to the CPGS alternative. 6. Intelligence through drones - Pro answers my question of "where would the intelligence come from?" with drones. To this I simply say - exactly! Drones would certainly be used to observe potential CPGS targets. But, the obvious question is then: if a drone is in range to observe a CPGS target, why not just use the drone? Like killing the ant with the jackhammer, CPGS is an unnecessary redundancy, and one that introduces unacceptable risk onto the world stage. == Conclusion == In closing, I have no doubt that CPGS would be a fearsome and lethal weapon. But the risks associated with those rewards are too great. The threats CPGS is designed to counter can already be countered with current technology. It's an unnecessary weapon that costs billions of dollars and pushes the Doomsday Clock ever closer to midnight. I say, do not invest. [1] https://www.fas.org...