Global warming is mostly anthropogenic

Global Warming is measured from 1978, not 1870Pro, says: "the Earth has warmed approximately .8ºC since 1870 (1). I allege that at least 75%, or .6º, of this warming was caused by CO2. We can evaluate the truth of this statement by determining the transient climate sensitivity value which would be required to produce .6ºC of warming."Where did "since 1870" come from? If warming is judged from the Middle Ages (the Medieval Warm Period), when anthropogenic CO2 production started to be significant, then there has been little or no global warming. If we start measuring from the Little Ice Age (ending in the early 1800s) then there is gradual warming as Pro suggests. The earth cooled from the 1930s through the 1970s, so there are lots of choice in that period to pick a time as a basis for global warming to agree with many theories. The amount of global warming or cooling depends completely upon the time period selected."[In] Loehle's insightful paper. His analyses also reveal a long-term linear cooling trend of 0.25°C per thousand years since the peak of the interglacial warm period that occurred some 7000 years ago, which result is essentially identical to the mean value of this trend that was derived from seven prior assessments of its magnitude and five prior climate reconstructions. In addition, Loehle's analyses reveal the existence of the Medieval Warm Period of 800-1200 AD, which is shown to have been significantly warmer than the portion of the Modern Warm Period we have so far experienced, as well as the existence of the Little Ice Age of 1500-1850 AD, which is shown to have been the coldest period of the entire 3000-year record." http://www.co2science.org...If one starts measuring warming from around the end of the coldest point n the past 3000 ears, a warming trend is inevitable. That doesn't mean the warming is due to CO2, even though it is consistent with a CO2 theory.Since Pro didn't say in the challenge, we should be obliged to assume the common meaning of the global warming period, which is the dramatic warming from 1977 to around 2000, when the warming stalled. That period is entirely the grounds for claiming a climate crisis. Pro's reference to the climate survey, which Pro claims is dominated by experts, says the time of interest is the second half of the twentieth century, which recites the common understanding of the context of anthropogenic global warming. The bogus global warming hockey stick, presented in the 2000 IPCC report, purported to show that there had been no change in climate in the thousand years preceding the 1970s. http://www.technologyreview.com... Pro picked the dates that agree with her theory. However, her analysis is wrong in any case. Lindzen gave the figure for CO2 warming assuming "all other things equal." That means that the result would occur if there is nothing that either amplifies or diminishes the effect of CO2. That's an interesting number, but it is not a claim that nothing else is going on. Therefore, Pro would have to at minimum prove that there were no positive or negative feedback mechanisms. She provided no such evidence. Crisis advocates say there are very strong positive mechanisms, while skeptics say there are probably negative mechanisms. Temperature cooled from 1870 to about 1910, then warmed sharply to the 1930s, then cooled to the 70s, then warmed to about 2000, then stabilized and now are cooling. That erratic behavior is inconsistent with a claim that all other things are equal.One of the first books by skeptics, Michael's "The Satanic Gases", http://www.cato.org... pointed to the gradual climate warming trend since the end of the little ice age, and used that to argue against anything unusual happening with CO2. Temperature Profile of the AtmosphereI agree that cooling in the stratosphere and warming of the troposphere is consistent with increased greenhouse gases. The question is what green house gas? CO2 crisis advocates do not claim that CO2 is the direct cause. They say that CO2 increases water vapor, and that water vapor is responsible for the temperature profile. I cited data that suggests that natural variations in methane might be the green house gas at work. An theory that has increased water vapor, such certain cloud theories, are also consistent.Being "consistent with" does not mean "causes." A famous example is that increased ice cream consumption correlates with increased murder rates. That doesn't verify a theory that ice cream causes murder. Hot weather is the culprit in that case. The atmospheric temperature profile is consistent with many theories. Climate Model Predictions Pro argues that "However, climate models which are constrained by observational evidence indicate that we would actually see between 1.5º and 2.8ºC of warming." Tracking down Pro's reference 4, it depends upon work published in 2006. Publication delays and the availability of data implies that the "observational evidence" on which the conclusion is based was probably concluded around 2003. I established in previous round that the lower 5% error bound on the climate model predictions from around 2000 were falsified by observations from the whole decade. The lower bounds that had only a 5% chance of being wrong were found to be wrong on the low side. Still, we are making progress in the debate. With Pro's claim that climate sensitivity is low, we agree that there is no CO2 induced climate crisis. In particular, that refutes the stand that that the alleged experts take in denouncing skeptics. Pro also does not dispute my claim that the CO2-high-sensitivity models are certainly wrong, because they predicted dramatic increases since 2000, when deceases have been observed. Once one understands that the debate is about the temperature rise from 1978 to about 2000, that effectively concedes the debate.The Survey of Alleged ExpertsPro agrees that at least 35% of climate scientists are unconvinced.The idea of the survey is that the true experts among climate scientist are the ones who publish the most in some undisclosed list of journals selected by climate crisis advocates. The Climategate scandal revealed that CO2 crisis advocates put top priority on preventing skeptics from being published. http://www.masterresource.org... A 2008 Conference of skeptics recounted seemingly endless cases of skeptics being denied publication by controlling CO2-crisis advocates. http://epw.senate.gov...A similar methodology applied in the Middle Ages would have identified all the real experts as supporting the theory that the earth is the enter of the solar system, dissenting publication being rare. One improvement over the Middle Ages is that dissenters now can publish in journals not controlled or accepted as valid by the ruling elite, and they can also publish in independent books and on-line. Note that Einstein only submitted one of his 300 papers to peer review. http://abhishek-tiwari.com... He would presently not be classified as an expert according to the methodology used. Moreover, skeptics place strong emphasis on reconstructing past climate variations, on assessing the impact of climate change, and on assessing solar influence on climate. Crisis advocates do not count any of that as climate science. The famous "Hockey Stick" falsely made the Medieval Warm Period disappear. Climate reconstruction refuted that. It's easy to get government funding for trivial topics somehow related to global warming, but no such funding is available for dissenters. The survey only proves that politics rules in climate science.