Solar Electic Power

This is going to be broken into 3 parts. 1) The suggested solar power system and its initial costs 2) What one would have if one decided not to get solar and just invest the money and buy electricity from the grid 3) What one would have if one decided to invest in this solar system (lol) I will try to be as short as possible because 8,000 is going to be way too little for everything, but, oh well. 1)The Suggested System I strongly advocate being independent and being able to do things yourself to save money (such as learn to fix your own car, build your own computer, etc), so naturally, I would strongly advocate installing your own panels and such. I would argue that the difficulty is not so great that the average person cannot do it, as they do offer kits that come with step-by-step instructions. However, I also fully understand that many are not comfortable with working on new things, especially on their roofs. So I will present the numbers if you install yourself as well as having contractors do it. First, cost of material. We have the solar panels, the inverter, and the batteries. You can buy a boat load of accessories that make it look prettier, but that is optional and so not a requirement. First, we need to know how much energy we need. Our location receives an average of 4.5 sun hours a day (this takes clouds and everything into effect), but in winter, we drop to 3.5 (while summer is up to 5.5). Since a cloudy day in winter means we'll be getting only half energy with 3.5 sun hours, we need to make sure that even on those days, we reach 34.65 kWh (average daily use, by Roy's numbers in his R1). This comes to 19.8 kW system, which will cost $29,017.72 in solar panels [1][2]. It should also be noted that these solar panels come with a 25 year power output warranty. This means that they are guaranteed to provide energy for at least 25 years. If they wear down and start providing less, they will be replaced under warranty. While they will likely last more than 25 years, we will use 25 years as our estimated end point (since everything breaks 2 weeks after warranty anyway). We also see that we will want at least 20 kWh to power the home through the nights, however, I've opted for a slightly larger, 36 kWh battery system so that the solar panels have plenty of time to deal with cleaning every once in a while (that will give a little over 24 hours of energy, while covering for the nights without de-charging too much). These will cost $4,872.00 [3]. These have a 10 year estimated life (7 year warranty), we will assume 2 replacements needed over the course, at 9 years and 18 years. Since I do not know what batteries will cost that far in the future, I will go with today's prices (advanced tech will likely drive prices down, but inflation will drive it back up, so who knows). Our inverter needs to be able to both charge batteries, as well as feed back into the grid. I have selected this inverter for $1,911.34 [4]. It claims to increase battery life by up to 10 years, but we'll ignore this claim as there is no guarantee for it, so it is merely a sales pitch (in my mind). This provides 3,600 VA, well above the average, though I don't know what the average peak usage is (sources vary too greatly). If my opponent would like, I can select a larger one (it will only add 1% to the cost, so it is really marginal when compared to the panels and labor). This allows us to sell our extra electricity back into the grid, however, it should be noted that you sell electricity at wholesale value (about 40% of market value) [5]. This brings the total of our system (with a 9.68% sales tax, national average) to $39,266.60 for this 19.8 kW system. We must now look at labor (while I believe that people should be able to do this themselves, we need to understand that not everyone can). Most contractors will quote you for the total job about $7 - $8 per Watt. It is not possible to get an exact number because it varies depending upon your house, angle of your roof and many other factors. We'll just assume the middle of $7.50 per Watt. Kits come complete at about $5.50 per Watt (and most contractors use pre-done kits). This means that the labor comes in at about $2.00 per W, so a 19.8 kW will have about $39,600 in labor costs alone. This will bring our total up to $78,866.60 with labor. This covers all initial costs, now, we can move to long term costs and benefits. 2)Take the money and run This section will cover if you take that $78,866.60, put it in a utility bond (as suggested by my opponent) and buy their electricity from the grid. While they have a number of options, we should stipulate that they need to choose a safe investment. First thing to consider is that electricity gets more expensive every year. Over the last 8 years, we've seen an average growth of 4.6% (from 8.00 cents in Jan 2003, to 10.99 cents in Jan 2011 [6], look at the excel sheet for historic prices). This puts your yearly electric bill from $1,403.54 this year, to $4,130.34 in 25 years. If we take the $78,866.60, and pull from it only to pay for the electricity, we find that after 5 years, the balance is $86,934.44, after 10, $97,304.37, after 20, $117,112.10, and after 25 years, $124,921.20. This is the golden number to beat. Interestingly, the investment will peak at 28 years at $126,998.10 before electricity costs overcome it (and it will be gone by the 43 year). Of course, if we go with you doing the labor yourself, at 25 years this option will be at $16,148.87 and will dry out at 29 years (this makes the life of the solar panels extremely important). With this, there is no equipment to buy, nor maintain, nor any labor associated that one must take care of. It is all factored into your costs at the meter. 3) Invest in my system I do not have the space to outline in depth what my system will cost, and so will only make some brief points and go into it further in R3. This will also allow my opponent the opportunity to verify the costs of not investing in solar as well as checking out the initial costs of my plan. Here are a list of things I will be going into next round. a) Solar panels increase the value of the home. This will raise both home owner's insurance and property taxes, however, it will also count as a non-liquidable asset. b) Electricity can be sold back at the wholesale rate, which we will count as 40% of the retail rate (grows at 4.6% a year). c) Cleaning of the panels to be done 6 times a year (once every 6 months, and wiping off snow, but the winter cleaning can be done during a snow removal) d) Snow removal and basic cleaning does not need to be professionally done, nor does it take a lot of time. While safety can be a concern, it is no more dangerous than climbing a ladder to clean gutters, which a large number of high school kids looking for beer money will do (besides, kids are durable). e) Batteries are maintenance free for their warranty and without maintenance are still expected to live 10 years (I'm still going with 9 for my calculations). While doing maintenance will extend their life, we've already accepted the 10 year life (though they claim 12 and above). I will have to pass this to my opponent now. [1] . http://www.affordable-solar.com... [2] . http://www.affordable-solar.com... [3] . http://www.affordable-solar.com... [4] . http://www.affordable-solar.com... [5] . http://www.bloomberg.com... [6] . http://www.eia.gov...