A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

In this, the final round, I'm going to briefly re-cap my arguments and show you why you should believe that a bird in the hand is indeed worth more than two in the bush. In the first plane, I provided several sources which defined the meaning of this proverb in it's proper cultural context. My opponent did not challenge these definitions, and they are to be taken as authoritative. I next provided the math, showing in most cases it is actually better to keep what you have, since in most cases giving it up to try for something supposedly greater yields little or no reward. There is a definite risk, and my logic shows that in the majority of cases it does NOT pay off, especially as the odds grow larger than 1 in 2.My opponent has not challenged the logic I provided R2, instead confining her arguments to the value of the birds in the bush and, in R3, the odds of gaining them. I addressed the value of the other birds already; for example, in R3 I showed by my lottery argument that even when the payoff is millions of times larger than what you pay, the odds can be too long to make it a worthwhile risk. Her assertions that the proverb demands a 1:2 ratio of value for the birds (in R2) or that they are necessarily at least equal (R3) do not match up with reality; I already admitted that the value of the other birds may indeed be much larger than the one you have, but that in most cases we cannot tell for certain until we have them. At this point in the debate, the only two points that my opponent is seriously disputing are whether we can know the value of the birds in the bush beforehand, and the value of taking the risk in the first place. This last comes the closest to actually disputing the logic I provided R2, but does so by an indirect and fuzzy way, poking at my statement about the odds along the way. Taking them in order:Value of Birds:My opponent states, "We can use our own judgment to know the value of something to come," and then gives the example of a job interview. I do not deny that we can do a certain amount of research before taking risks; it is common sense to find out what you can about a situation before you commit to it. Before commitment, though, our information is necessarily limited. When you interview for a job, you have a limited amount of time to observe the work environment and the other employees. Oftentimes, the person hiring you will not be your supervisor; the hours you are quoted in the interview may not be fixed; aggressive union dues and similar fees may reduce your quoted income; and you rarely if ever get the chance to meet your co-workers and gain any sort of substantive information about the personalities you will be working with. No company will advertise the fact that their lockers are raided by kleptomaniacs, that the cafeteria food is horribly overpriced and nutritionally worthless, and that the office staff are the most malicious gossips west of the Mississippi. The fact is, you cannot know this about your prospective job until after you change jobs.Here is a list of other things that you cannot really know the true value of before you commit:- A spouse. Anyone who thinks they really know their spouse before the honeymoon ends is deluded. Giving up your current spouse for someone you just met is insane.- A child. In this case, the up-front costs are fairly easy to determine (under normal circumstance, that is), but the life-time costs are impossible to know. Whether they will become a doctor who makes you proud or a sociopath who murders you in your sleep cannot be determined at birth or conception.- Stock in a company. Even blue-chip companies have gone under without warning; you can do all the calculations you want, but no-one really knows how much a share will be worth in a week.- Sex. Your partner's skill, the diseases you might catch, the chance of being observed, the possibility that your partner may reveal embarrassing secrets about you later on, the possibility of being raped, the potential to become pregnant; there are many imponderables about copulation, few of which can be researched at all beforehand. The first time with anyone is fraught with risks that you cannot adequately judge.- Hiring a sitter/maid/repairman. You are bringing a stranger into your home, often without the benefit of references; and sometimes even those are fabricated. It is impossible to know that these people will not kidnap your children or rob you blind. We trust the odds that they won't, but we cannot know for sure.Many of life's situations are unknowable before hand. In many, if not most cases, you cannot know the true value of the birds in the bush before committing.Value of Risk (and odds of gaining):My opponent's only response to my arguments about the odds:"In fact, when a person gives up everything they have to pursue something, the odds are highly in their favor that they will gain that thing... When a person sets their mind on something and believes that they will gain it, it becomes their reality."This certainly does not match my personal experiences, nor does it match the overwhelming evidence of history. History is full of people who single-mindedly pursued some goal, only to fail in the end. Examples:- Alexander the Great (hoped to establish a lasting empire across the known world; after his untimely death, his wife and son were murdered and the empire fragmented amongst his generals).- Hannibal (Spent his life trying to conquer Rome; got very close, but was frustrated in his hopes by a critical and divided government back home in Carthage. Was called home, and lost the crucial battle defending Carthage).- Hitler (Attempted to establish a 1000 year German empire. Committed suicide to prevent capture by the Soviet army).- Nicolai Tesla (His life's work and dream of wireless transmission of power died in the fight with Edison).One could write books on the number of people who have had their dreams shattered and life work ruined; and I'm sure people have. The point is clear: You don't always get what you want, no matter how much you want it. Most of the "positive thinking" spiel is complete nonsense; in this case, promoted by a website who touts themselves as "the online source for books, articles and guidance on self improvement, positive thinking, motivation, spiritual growth and meditation." Con's source for this point, SuccessConciousness.com, is hardly a credible authority on this issue. There is no reason, therefore, to believe that the odds of gain are at all favorable. There is very good reason to believe, given the difficulty of succeeding in life, that the odds are usually distinctly unfavorable.I hardly have to address this last point. My opponent would have us believe that if you lose something, you can always gain it back; that there are unlimited job opportunities available; and that homelessness isn't that bad, after all. This hardly needs to be stated to be refuted. I, and I hope everyone who reads this debate, understand that job opportunities are very limited indeed; that many things (like money, relationships, trust, valuables, time, health, etc.) may be lost permanently through bad decisions; and that even if homelessness isn't QUITE as terrible as the popular conception has it, it's still much worse than having a home. Risking the bird in the hand can have drastic consequences sometimes.Conclusion:The point of this proverb is that one must be careful which risks to take. When you already have a good situation, it is usually a bad idea to drop it in the hope of gaining a better, especially when you don't know what the new situation will be like or if you can even attain it.Based on logic, common sense, and the witness of History, it is clear that a bird in the hand truly is worth two in the bush.I thank my opponent for a challenging and engrossing debate, and wish her the best in her future debates.-C.