GOP will win in November

1) Turnout You miss the argument. The midterms were an actual election between the two parties. So, when the dems received more votes, they won. This isn't analogous to the primaries. How many voters turn out now has no correlation to the general election. We saw this in 2000. The democratic primaries had larger turnouts and Republicans won. Campaign finance is also not reflective of a winning campaign. Huckabee is notoriously being outspent 30-1 (or something outrageous), but managed to win Iowa. Also, funding can be relfective of organzational support and wealth. Democratics are typically supported by organizations like unions and PAC's more so than Republicans. Also, there are more registered wealthy democrats than republicans (hard to believe). "The study also found that Republicans raised more than Democrats from individuals who contributed small and medium amounts of money during the 2002 election cycle, but Democrats far outpaced Republicans among deep-pocketed givers." http://www.opensecrets.org... This shows that fundraising is not indicative of votes, but rather, how many rich people and organizations you have in your corner. This could also be indicative of the animosity between Democratic candidates. Since they are running against each other, Dem contributors see the differences between their own camps as more divided than Republicans do. For example, a Yankees fan is more likely to take interest when they are playing the Red Sox and the rivalry is higher. The fact that the rivalry between the Dems is high is unquestionable. You are merely assuming that Dem voters will overcome their differences. Of course the candidates aren't going to admit the rivalry. Throughout Nevada today, Obama and Clinton supporters got into screaming matches at one another. I don't think you need a better example of heated rivalry. Even if the Dems are closer on the issues (which is debatable), this doesn't change the fued between the camps. Personality is just as important as policy in this campaign. 3) Change You miss the argument here. The republicans are telling voters that Dems are going to bring change...bad change. Change is a hot word right now, and the Republicans are spinning it against the Democrats. As people are becoming more and more pleased with their outlook, Democrats look worse and worse. 4) Iraq Americans think the surge is working. December was the lowest fatality count in years, the Iraqi government is making political progress (as I pointed out) and the dissentiment about the war from Americans is falling by the wayside. Why do you think the economy has become the hot issue as of late? Less and less people are feeling ill towards the war and this favors the Republicans. Bush approval rating, though low, is rising, as is good will toward the war. 5) Economy You talk about the deficit. This has long-term repercussions, which don't bear weight on November. Every economic analyst says we are going to see a recovery this summer. The Democrats are preaching pessimism in the hopes that people will doubt this. The deficit doesn't immediately effect the economy. Even if the deficit is rising, the economy can do well in the coming months. The dollar is bottoming out, and beginning to recover. All this bodes well for the Republicans. Economic populism favors the democrats? Since when? The Republicans message of lower taxes and fiscla responsibility has always been their ace in the hole. I would say people like lower taxes. Also, the economic stimulus package just introduced is aimed at low income Americans. This reflects well on the Republicans and will see a rise in support for the Republicans on the economy. 5) Candidates It was a blanket statement because it applies to all of them. The Democrats are less experienced and worse campaigners in general. We saw this in past elections where Bush Sr. overcame a 12 piont deficit to beat Dukakis, his son did the same to Gore. My point is, every election that the Democrats "should have won", with the exception of 1996, has come up red. This is due, in large part, to the republicans campaigning abilities and nomination of winning candidates. This is obvious this year as each of the Democrats flaws are more glaring. The republicans are not perfect, but the Democrats have some big leaks in the ship as far as candidates are concerned. In short, general sentiment from voters about their satisfaction with the status quo is on the rise. The next nine months has a positive outlook. This will help Republicans overcome Bush's low approval rating. The focus on issues is helping the Republicans. The animosity between the Democratic frontrunners is apparent and will cost them once they nominate a candidate. Once this happens, the republicans are great campaigners and have more winnable candidates. All of these things mean the GOP will win the general election, despite their current underdog status.