Stock Market is a Random Walk

My opponent has attempted to use Quantum Mechanics (QM), in particular the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle (HUP), to demonstrate "that everything -- EVERYTHING -- is completely random." Much to my chagrin, my opponent has misconstrued what many agree to be the greatest scientific achievement of the 20th century - namely, the Quantum Theory. At this stage it becomes important to remember that science is concerned only with observable things and that we can observe an object only by letting it interact with some outside influence, e.g. light. An act of observation is thus necessarily accompanied by some disturbance of the object observed. We may define an object to be big when the disturbance accompanying our observation of it may be neglected (example the lack of sub-atomic particles effects used in ballistics) and small when the disturbance cannot be neglected. It is usually assumed that, by being careful, we may cut down the disturbance accompanying our observation to any desired extent. The concepts of big and small are then purely relative (as my opponent asserts) and refer to the gentleness of our means of observation as well as to the object being described. This is simply not true according to Heisenberg and Quantum Theory. In order to give absolute meaning to size, such as is required for any theory of the ultimate structure of matter, we have to assume that there is a limit to the fineness of our powers of observation and the smallness of the accompanying disturbance – a limit which is inherent in the nature of things and can never be surpassed by improved technique or increased skill on the part of the observer. If the object under observation is such that the unavoidable limiting disturbance is negligible, then the object is big in the absolute sense and we may apply Classical Mechanics (CM) to it. If, on the other hand, the limiting disturbance is not negligible, then the object is small in the absolute sense and we require QM for dealing with it. THIS IS THE PROFOUND MEANING OF HEISENBERG'S UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE! At the most fundamental level the uncertainty principle has nothing to do with randomness. Therefore, there are absolute regimes where QM is accurate and others where CM is accurate. This is a key point, which my opponent fails to recognize. A scientific theory is only as good as its ability to predict the outcome of repeatable experiments to the desired degree of accuracy. Both theories, QM and CM, have acceptable levels of accuracy in their own regimes. In addition to the position-momentum HUP misconstrued by my opponent's assertions, there exists an energy-time uncertainty principle, which states that delta (E) x delta (t) is greater than or equal to Planck's constant divided by 4 pi. Notice that this relation is in the exact form of the position-momentum HUP, where delta stands for the standard deviation of the variable in question. The meaning of the energy-time uncertainty relation is exactly the same (with different variables of course). Let me now move from the qualitative to the quantitative analysis of HUP to shed more light (pun intended) on the different regimes of QM and CM. I believe that the following problem concisely illustrates all of the concepts that I have illuminated on thus far. Problem 1.15b of Quantum Mechanics, Concepts and Applications, by Nouredine Zettili (2001, John Wiley & Sons, LTD), states the following: Calculate the times required for the wave packets of a 25 eV electron with an initial width of 1 micron, and a 100 g object of size 1 cm moving at a speed of 50 m/s to spread to 10 mm and 10 cm, respectively. Discuss the results obtained. I will not bore you with the mathematics, but I will give you the quantitative results given in the book. The time required for the electron to spread to 10 mm is t = 0.17 milliseconds, and the time required for the object to spread to 10 cm is t = 1.9 x 10^30 seconds. "The result shows that the size of the electron's wave packet grows in a matter of 0.17 milliseconds from 1 micron to 10 millimeters, a very large spread in a very short time. As for [the 100 g object], it shows that the object has to be constantly in motion for about 1.9 x 10^30 seconds for its wave packet to grow from 1 cm to 10 cm, a small spread for such an absurdly large time; this time is absurd because it is much larger than the age of the universe, which is about 4.7 x 10^17 seconds. We see that the spread of macroscopic objects becomes appreciable only if the motion lasts for a long, long time. However, the spread of microscopic objects is fast and large." The electron's properties described above are typical for a microscopic, atomic event; thus, QM and HUP are necessary for accuracy. On the other hand, for a macroscopic particle about the size, weight, and speed of a bullet, the spread becomes appreciable only after absurdly long times; times that are much longer than the lifetime of the universe itself. Thus, it is obvious that for macroscopic objects HUP and QM have negligible effects in realistic time and length scales that humans observe. Because the quantum mechanical effects on the "bullet" are negligible, CM is sufficient for accuracy. In order to win this debate the opponent must be able to defend that the market is strictly a random event. The opponent must support a random walk hypothesis that the market prices are completely random. The market is not predictive at any level or degree. 1.Vote Con: I have shown that my opponent's assertion that HUP implies randomness is simply false. HUP refers to the inability (not the limit) to measure with COMPLETE accuracy. Because we are not able to measure something with an EXACT degree of accuracy to the sub-atomic level does not mean "that everything -- EVERYTHING -- is completely random." 2.Vote Con: I have shown that CM is valid in the macroscopic regime, and thusly, in the length and time scales that we experience in 99.99% of our everyday lives. CM's accuracy in the macroscopic regime is seen in the prediction of ballistics, the engineering of autos, planes, and rockets, watch making, etc. 3.Vote Con: The semantic argument alone that if ""that everything -- EVERYTHING -- is completely random" we would not even be having this debate, for it would be completely random for him to stumble onto this website, randomly type in his password, and then randomly type a coherent reply. This alone shows that CM offers enough accuracy in the macroscopic regime for computers and communication to function. 4.Vote Con: As my opponent is stuck in a paradoxical circle, as he uses QM and HUP to show that everything is random, and thus CM is inaccurate. However, CM is used to build the tools needed to observe QM and HUP, and if CM is inaccurate, then the tools to observe QM and HUP are inaccurate, which means any theories derived from QM and HUP are inaccurate and thus my opponent fails. 5.Vote Con: As my opponent has not shown that the stock market exists solely in the QM regime thus making CM invalid as a method of observing and/or measuring. 6.Vote Con: Heisenberg did NOT use Random Walk to derive or postulate HUP. PDF in QM is NOT random walk, but rather the modulus of the wave function squared. 7.Vote Randomly: If you actually believe that everything is completely random.