GOP will win in November

I wasn't aware that my rhetoric was so unclear. I thought it was obvious that I was stating a claim. I claim that the GOP will win. Obviously, I can not predict the future and was merely stating this in the most convenient terms. It seems kind of frivolous to point this out. So, I will admit, for the purposes of satisfying your animosity on the subject, that I can not KNOW that they will win. That said, I'll address your points on the topic itself. 1) Primary turnout The fact that Democratic voters have turned out in higher numbers bears no weight on the general election. The primaries thus far have take place in 'blue' states for one, leading to a higher number of Democratic voters in general. Second, this simply proves that Democratic voters have a heightened animosity between candidates and voters feel it necessary to attempt to ensure their candidate gets as much support as possible. Additionally, history proves this is not a problem. Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans in primaries in the previous elections and the Republicans won the general. These points prove there is no correlation between primary turnout and general election results. 2) Unified Democrats Quite the opposite is true actually. The most bitter political divide is between Clinton and Obama supporters. This is evident in the media, on the campaign trail and is evidenced by one of my points above. One of the reasons more Dems have come out is because their is such animosity between the two Dem camps. The volatility in Republican support can simply be attributed to the greater number of competitive candidates. With double the number of candidates there is double the number of political camps. However, the divisions between the Republican camps are not nearly as bitter or alienating. Come nomination, we will see a far greater number of dissatisied Democrats than Republicans. 3) Change The Democrats are seen as the party of change, but the Republicans have a great counter-strategy to this. Recently, Republican candidates have started to campaign for change as well. Most notably, Giuliani campaigns that Democrats will bring change...bad change. In the general election, Republicans will point this out to voters, overcoming this voter frustration and bringing the focus back to the issues. Additional Reasons 4) Hot Issues Months ago things looked dark for the right. Now, as the troop surge shows undeniable success and improvement in Iraq, the economy and social issues begin to take center stage again. As voters become increasingly pleased with the situation in Iraq, the Republican party looks better and better. This is true of the economy as well. There has been a lot of recession talk lately, but just today, Bernanke issued a statement that said the economy will begin to rise during the summer and fall. We know this is probable because Washington just introduced an economic stimulus plan that will reduce the effective of the housing bubble and return growth to the economy. As the issues look better and better, Republicans follow suit. 5) Candidates The Democratic candidates are unable to win the general. Granted, they are polling better now, but, each has several weaknesses and inexperience that will crush them during the general. Despite what the polls show, Republicans simply campaign better and move the vote more. The last decade proves this. So, Republicans will PROBABLY win because their camps are less divided, the campaign better, things are looking up, Americans are optimistic, and the Democrats motivated base and campaign for change will be overcome.