(Phantom's 99th Percent) Intervention in Iran

I look forward to an exciting and thought-provoking debate! :) C1: Iran, An Existential Threat [1] [2] [3] Opponents to direct action often cite the argument that Iran is a peaceful nation and hasn't gone to war in hundreds of years, clearly ignoring the fact that Iran has supported terrorist organizations since the inception of the Islamic Republic and also ignoring the pertinent fact that Iran has a radically different type of government now than it has had in the past, but this will be addressed later. The important fact here in this contention is the fact that Iran is a threat to U.S. and Israeli national security and has shown signs of increasingly belligerent tendencies First, according to the AEI Critical Threats Project the NYPD has monitored, recorded and verified multiple Iranian reconnaissance units documenting vital areas in New York City. The troubling aspect about this is this is not a new phenomenon, but rather over the course of this decade Iran has systematically and incrementally been increasing its reconnaissance missions within the United States especially in key areas like New York City and Washington DC. Silber writes, "Over the last six months, our analysts have studied terrorist plots with a plausible nexus to Iran that have been attempted or carried out in Azerbaijan, India, Georgia, Thailand, as well as here in Washington. What we have learned has heightened our concerns. Disconcertingly, these plots demonstrate that Iran and/or Hezbollah remain committed to striking against Israeli and Western targets. Further complicating the task of law enforcement is the diversity of methods evidence by these plots, including differences in the profile of perpetrators, types of explosives used, delivery method, and tradecraft." This evidence indicates an ever growing amount of suspicious activity on the part of the Iranians: one includes the detention of Iranians photographing vital aspects of the Brooklyn Bridge (2008) and members of an Iranian delegation who were detained for photographing, blueprinting, and mapping the structural integrity of the Wall Street Helipad (2010). Second, Iran was the instigator of an assassination attempt on U.S. soil coupled with various terror attacks against key targets. ABC news writes, "FBI and DEA agents have disrupted a plot to commit a "significant terrorist act in the United States" tied to Iran. The officials said the plot included the assassination of the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States, Adel Al-Jubeir, with a bomb and subsequent bomb attacks on the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Washington, D.C. Bombings of the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Buenos Aires, Argentina, were also discussed, according to the U.S. officials." C2: Iran and Terrorism [4] [5] A strawman argument against intervention is that Iran is incapable at this time to create a functioning warhead and ballistic missile needed to strike Israel. I will refute the capability fact later, but for now let us focus on why its a strawman argument. Iran's modus operendi when it comes to military operations is to use proxy agents usually under the direction of the Revolutionary Guard. Iran uses terrorist groups to infiltrate and create harm in various countries throughout the world. Thus, the issue is not over whether Iran can create a fully functioning warhead capable of striking Israel, but rather the issue is Iran giving graded nuclear material to terrorists. First, Al Qaeda. According to the Critical Threats Project, â€œFirst, the operability of the [Iranian Al Qaeda] network confirms that the Iranian regime is directly facilitating al Qaeda activity in the region, including coordinating with al Qaeda's representative in Iran to arrange the release of al Qaeda members from detention.ï¿½ This arrangement, in place since 2005, further demonstrates the Iranian regime's willingness to discount the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide if it can help inflict harm on American security and interests. Second, the network's ties to multiple enemy groups illustrate the syndicate-like nature of al Qaeda's presence in Iran. Al Qaeda's core leadership in Pakistan, al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Taliban are all connected to the Khalil network according to Treasury. Recent American and coalition operations in Afghanistan corroborate the existence of other al Qaeda-affiliated networks inside Iran. An Iran-based al Qaeda network led by Ezedin Abdel Aziz Khalil funnels Gulf money and personnel for al Qaeda from Iran to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. The network, operates under an agreement between al Qaeda and the Iranian regime." Second, Hezbollah. According to the CTP Iran and Hezbollah are politically and militarily connected, and Hezbollah is a proxy agent of Iran. CTP offers evidence: Dual Lebanese-American citizen Hor Akl was sentenced to 6 years in prison by a U.S. court for attempting to smuggle $200,000 to Hezbollah. Akl previously pled guilty to conspiracy to provide material support to a group designated as a foreign terrorist organization, money laundering, perjury and bankruptcy fraud.. Iran is shipping arms to Hezbollah via modified passenger. Representatives of the House Foreign Affairs Committee expressed concern about funds raised for Hezbollah through Lebanese expatriates in Latin America. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Daniel Glaser, however, noted that â€œthe most significant donor to Hezbollah is Iran. All other forms of Hezbollah fund raising pale in comparison to the funds that Hezbollah gets from Iran. Iran is the chief financial supporter of Hezbollah and Hezbollah survives on Iranian support." C3: Timeframe [6] CTP writes, "Iran can acquire weapons-grade uranium for one weapon by mid-August 2012 under currently-announced plans for expanding enrichment. This scenario is somewhat likely. Iran will acquire enough 19.75% low-enriched uranium by June 1, 2012 to be within 2.5 months of producing weapons-grade uranium for one 15 kiloton bomb."ï¿½ C4: Regional Arms Race [7] The Guardian writes, A senior Saudi Arabian diplomat and member of the ruling royal family has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict in the Middle East if Iran comes close to developing a nuclear weapon.Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to Washington, warned senior Nato military officials that the existence of such a device˜would compel Saudi Arabia to pursue policies which could lead to untold and possibly dramatic consequences. 'We cannot live in a situation where Iran has nuclear weapons and we don't. It's as simple as that,' the official said. 'If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, that will be unacceptable to us and we will have to follow suit.'" [1] http://www.criticalthreats.org...... [2] http://homeland.house.gov...... [3] http://abcnews.go.com...... [4] http://www.irantracker.org...... [5] http://www.irantracker.org...... [6] http://www.irantracker.org...... [7] http://www.guardian.co.uk......