Concealed Carry Laws Decrease Violent Crime

Table of Content 1. Introduction 2. Research in Support of Con"s Argument & Evidence Against Pro"s Argument (a) Paper 1: National Council Council on "More Guns, Less Crime. " (b) Paper 2: More Guns, Less Crime Fails Again: The Latest Evidence for 1977-2006 (c) Paper 3: NBER Working Paper Series 3. Rationale Behind the Numbers 4. Alternative Explanations of "The basis of the argument" Graph 5. Conclusion 6. References 1. Introduction The debate on the impact of Concealed Carry Laws (hereinafter CCW) on national criminal rate is far from over. About a decade ago, Prof. John Lott, in his book "More Gus, Less Crime", suggested that CCW may be directly responsible for the dramatic fall in crime. Since its issue, the book has drew a range of criticisms. In 2005, the National Research Council (NRC) offered a critical evaluation of the "More Guns, Less Crime" hypothesis and 17 of 18 NRC panels members concluded that the existing research was inadequate to conclude that CCW increased or decreased crime. [1] In their 2009 paper, Prof. Ian Ayres and Prof. John J. Donohue III suggested that CCW may lead to increase in criminal rate six of seven measured categories. [2] Furthermore, in a 2012 paper, Prof. Abhay Aneja, Prof. John J. Donohue III, and Prof. Alexandria Zhang concluded that CCW may increase lead to an increasing rate in aggravated assault. 2. Research in Support of Con"s Argument & Evidence Against Pro"s Argument (a) National Research Council on "More Guns, Less Crime. " In a 2005 report, National Research Council (NRC) offered an evaluation of the "More Guns, Less Crime" hypothesis. 17 of 18 NRC panel members were not convinced by the research. They concluded that there was no existing credible research that could conclude CCW increased or decreased crime. [1] (b) More Guns, Less Crime Fails Again: The Latest Evidence for 1977-2006 In their 2009 paper, Prof. Ayres and Prof. Donohue suggests that CCW may actually increase crime in six of seven measured categories (Murder, Rape, Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Auto Theft, Burglary, and Larceny). The research reveals that CCW is associated with increase in Aggravated Assault (+2.64%) while also leads to a decrease in Auto Theft (-1.78%). [2] Prof. Ayres and Prof. Donohue contend that "even if one accepts the facial findings substantially higher aggravated assaults and somewhat lower auto thefts, this would be a bad tradeoff since aggravated assault is much more socially costly than auto theft. In any event, this is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the more guns, less crime hypothesis. "[2] (c) NBER Working Paper Series In a more recently published paper (August 2012), Prof. Aneja, Prof. Donohue, and Prof. Zhang evaluate the NRC evidence and conclude that the most consistent, albeit not uniform finding to emerge for the research is that aggravated assault rises when CCW is adopted. The researchers, in addition, suggests that for every other crime category, there is little or no indication of any consistent CCW impact on crime. [1] 3. Rationale Behind the Numbers (a) Even by using the same data set, it appears that researchers may reach vastly different conclusions. The widespread disagreements underscore the complexity of the problem, and perhaps even raise the concerns whether the use of mathematical methods in describing social policy is a sound approach. In determining the relationships between CCW and criminal rate, researchers must decide, according to their own judgments, what kind of control variables should be included; should country level data or state level date be used; what kind of statistical model should be adopted; and how much time after passage of law is enough to determine its effect. [3] The lack of a general consensus may undermine the credibility of research by introducing an increasing number of uncertainties. (b) In addition to the aforementioned concerns about the role of the statistical analysis in social science study, there are several ways to explain the correlation between CCW and increase in crime. CCW may provide law-abiding citizens with the opportunity to carry guns in some public places for the purpose of self-protection; it may also keep potential criminals from being caught and detained by the police given the fact that guns can be legally carried in public. CCW may be proved to be futile or perhaps even encourage the crime in the city where the majority of criminal activity is gang and drug related. It may be one of the reasons behind the increase in murder in Chicago (up 25% from 2011). [4] A false sense of security could be generated by carrying the concealed weapon. The false sense of security may therefore promote law-abiding citizens to engage in a more offensive and provocative behavior when they face any potential danger, thereby leading to an escalating confrontation with criminals. 4. Alternative Explanations of "The basis of the argument" Graph Reversed relationship: It is conceivable that the decrease in crime leads to the increase in passage of CCW. Other factors that may affect the outcome: (a) Increase in general income level over the past several decades (b) Increase in the level of education (c) Increase in the incarceration rate (d) Increase in the presence of police force (e) Decrease in the state population (f) Decrease in the population density (g) State trends (h) Unexpected/Sporadic events such as crack cocaine in 1980s and 1990s (i) Shift in demographic composition: age, race and/or gender 5. Conclusion Determining the exact relationship between CCW and criminal rates is a demanding task. Given the richness of the data (over 30 years), it would not be surprised that any reference can be drawn from it. A variety of confounding factors such as the incarceration rate and the presence of police force may further complicate the already difficult problem. In no way, however, Prof. Lott"s research is conclusive and Prof. Ayres and Prof. Donohue"s study, by using the same data, reach a complete opposite conclusion. More researches are therefore needed to confirm the causal relationship. Thus, in conclusion, it is premature to conclude that CCW may decrease violent crime. Thank you 6. References [1]. . http://www.nber.org... [2]. . http://works.bepress.com... [3]. . http://www.thefreelibrary.com... [4]. . http://www.usatoday.com...