Mitt Romney Has a Good Chance of Winning

I will start by reversing Pros order, as this debate is about Mitt Romney specifically, and I feel that President Obama should not be a primary argument. I will discuss Mr. Obama briefly at the end. Romney's Strengths and Weaknesses1. The Economy. Although Pro does correctly point out that under the incumbent, the economy has been largely stagnant, Mr. Romney's handling of his most relevant skill set seem to have been inept at best. He has allowed his opponent to set the narrative on his tenure at Bain Capitol, and has further managed to directly contradict his own SEC filings from the relevant period, stating that he did nothing as a $100,000 dollar per year as Chairman/ CEO/ majority shareholder. After that, the best attempt at spin was to have surrogates argue that Mr. Romney had “retroactively retired” from his corporation. [1.1] [1.2] In light of his noted difficulties with seeming out of touch and elitist, this is one of those horrible explanations that is useless even if true. 2. He Looks Like A President- This, I am sorry to say seems to be a rather silly argument. Pro himself had admitted that Obama also looks presidential, which at most leaves Mr. Romney completely neutral. More likely, being able to use the paraphernalia of the office would cause Mr. Obama to have a slight edge here. (At this point, I also feel I should express my disappointment with Pro's arguments in general, in that they are a direct paste from his source elephantwatcher.com. Unless 1Historygenius is the author of Elephant Watcher, I will have to ask that he at least use proper quotes if he wont reword his arguments). 3. A Well-Organized Campaign- This argument I simply disagree with, as those of us who kept up with last years season of “Survivor: GOP” [ 3.1] videos [3.2], [3.3] can readily attest, Mr. Romney was the de facto No. Two for nearly the entire season, and only was able to clinch the GOP nomination after the other candidate had spectacularly gone down in flames. That strategy will not work against an incumbent most notable for being as unflappable as a Vulcan [3.4] [3.5] as Mr. Romney has stumbled badly every month for the entire past year. In fact, at this time of this writing he is currently in the process of turning a non issue of previous tax returns into an arson attack on his own image. Now I will admit easily enough that Mr. Romney has a well financed and professional campaign, but it also unfortunately has Mr Romney. 4. A Good Debater- Pro is correct that Mr. Romney is probably as good a debater as Mr. Obama, in a general sense. However his generally stiff appearance, coupled with truly epic policy reversals may stand strongly against him in any particular debate that his opponent doesn't pratfall or fall asleep in the middle of. Given the fact that Mr. Obama is likely to have several practice debate to sharpen his skills, that is unlikely. Also, Pros discussion of past debates seems to be irrelevant, as like dice, debates have no 'memory'. It is possible for a dramatic moment in a debate to influence the campaign, but it may had no affect at all. 5. He is a Mormon - This could have... an affect. What affect this will be is completely unknown. I feel that as preferable a country that has simply no concern about about Mr. Romney s Mormonism or Mr. Obama' s race would be, that is not the country that will be going to the polls in November. Further, it is likely that a significant fraction of voters that an Evangelical GOP candidate could rely on to vote against Obama' s color, will have a problem voting for Romney's religion[5.1] [5.2]. My opinion on this is that its too close to call. 6. About the Polls: Pros statement that his primary source, Elephant Watcher is “the most reliable website to predict the election” is a statement staggeringly at odds with the site itself. Firstly, the site is not a polling site, it is a political blog- and one with a clear slant starting in the title itself. Second it has no list of methodology any where. Third and last, it is mathematically false- as one of Pros own references [6.1] makes clear and this page [6.2] makes embarrassingly obvious (was that supposed to be a polling chart or a modern interpretation of the French Flag?). 7. As I said I will provide one paragraph in rely to Pro's subject of “Obama’s Weaknesses”. The first three arguments are essentially the same, which can be titled from the second one, “His Failed Presidency”. Those arguments are essentially false, although I freely confess that I wish he had done more myself. As President, Mr. Obama was subject to an insurgency by the Congressional GOP, and was hamstrung in every project he attempted. Nevertheless, he has several accomplishments he can point to- ranging from rescuing the automotive industry to killing Bin Laden. Most directly, he can claim accurately that the health care plan is better named ObamNEYCare [7.1] [7.2], as the only difference in Mr. Romney plan is to actually include penalties for the hated mandate. Also Pros reference for the plans unpopularity actually show it to be statistically tied. [1.1] http://www.cnn.com... [1.2] http://www.thedailyshow.com... [3.1] http://dailybuzznation.com... [3.2] http://www.youtube.com... [3.3] http://www.youtube.com... [3.4] http://www.fanboy.com... [3.5] http://www.washingtonpost.com... [5.1] http://www.patheos.com... [5.2] http://www.politicususa.com... [6.1] http://www.elephantwatcher.com... [6.1] http://www.elephantwatcher.com... [7.1] http://www.nationalreview.com... [7.2] http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...