Mitt Romney Has a Good Chance of Winning

My ArgumentsObama's WeaknessesPresident Barack Obama has many weaknesses from his presidency. Let's look at all of them.1. The Economy - For most voters, the economy of the last four years has been the worst in their lifetimes. The economy is stagnant and it is unclear if it will get better or worse. Obama wants to avoid the economy as part of his campaign because Mitt Romney is focusing mainly on it. Romney wants to convince the voters that the economy is terrible and that his talent in business can help save the economy. If Obama were to focus on the economy he would have to argue against Romney and that would be more difficult [1].2. His Failed Presidency - Much of Obama's liberal agenda (cap and trade, tax increases on the rich, etc.) was proposed, but failed to pass. This disappointed voters on the left while alienating voters on the right [1].3. Obamacare - President Obama's most important acheivement has went down as incredibly unpopular (currently the latest Rasmussen poll shows 52% favor its repeal and 42% oppose it). It was upheld as constitutional, but mainly because it is a tax [1,2].4. Its Not 2008 - The eloquence and novelty that gave Obama his win in 2008 has largely been sapped by time [1].Romney's StrengthsFormer Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has many strengths to take on Obama's weaknesses.1. The Economy - Realizing the economy is likely the most important issue to the voters, Romney has focused his campaign there rather than anything else. Romney also has a long career in business which help people get attracted to him and know that he can fix the economy [1].2. He Looks Like A President - Romney looks and sounds like a president. He seems well aware of all issues. Off course Obama looks presidencial (he is the president) so the important thing is that Romney looks presidential enough to take Obama on [1].3. A Well-Organized Campaign - Its obvious that Obama will have a good campaign, so the important thing for the opponent is that he has an important one take on the president. Romney does have a good and experienced campaign [1].4. A Good Debater - Understanding the importance of debates, Romney is experienced in debating others. The last time Obama debated with anyone was four years ago, thus he is not as experienced in debating as Romney [1].5. He is a Mormon - While Obama will likely have the black community at his back, Romney will have the Mormon one, this will help him in western swing states [1].The PollsThe current poll average shows Romney winning with a slight lead. This poll average is by Elephant Watcher, the most reliable website to predict the election. Unlike Intrade which looks at the Real Clear Politics poll average, Elephant Watcher is more accurate. RCP does not understand the difference between registered voters polls and likely voters polls [10].Likely voters polls ask voters if they intend to vote, but also ask other questions to determine if they are likely to turn out. Registered voters polls do not. This means that registered voters polls are inaccurate. They sometimes give one candidate an unfair advantage because a certain amount of their voters may not turn out. Eventually, all pollsters will abandon the registered voters polls and switch to likely voters polls to make their polls more accurate. This is true. As examples look at the 2004 presidential election. Early it looked like a zig-zag race, but eventually as they went to likely voters polls, Bush gained a clear lead. The same can be said for 2008 [4,5,6].To fix this error, Elephant Watcher has given Romney an extra 3 percentage points in any registered voters polls (for example if the poll was Obama 48 and Romney 46, Romney will get an extra 3 percentage points making it Obama 48 and Romney 49) [3]. DebatesIt is expected for Romney to do good in the debates because Obama has not debated since 2008 against the Republican candidate John McCain and the other Democratic candidates who tried to get the nomination from him. Let's look at some recent debates. 1980 - Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter in the debates and he won by 9 percentage points. Before the debate, Carter was leading. They were decisive in the election [7,8].1984 - Walter Mondale defeated Reagan in the debates, but he lost by 18 percentage points. The debates apparently had no impact [7,8]. 1988 - George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis really debated to a draw. Dukakis made a series gaffe in one. The debates may have extended Bush's lead and he won by 7 percentage points [7,8].1992 - Bill Clinton defeated Incumbent George H.W. Bush in the debates. Third party candidate Ross Perot also did well in the debates, but not as good as Clinton. Clinton won by 5.5 percentage points over Bush. Ross Perot got 19% of the popular votes. The debates had a huge impact and likely handed Clinton the victory [7,8].1996 - Bill Clinton defeated challenger Bob Dole in the debates. The debates probably did nothing, but extended Clinton's victory [7,8].2000 - George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the debates (particularly the "town hall" debate, in which Gore exhibited bizarre behavior), and won the election despite losing the popular vote by half a point. Before the debates, Gore was ahead and after them Bush was ahead [7,8]. 2004 - John Kerry defeated Bush in the first debate. Kerry was trailing by around 10 percentage points before the debate and after them he lost by 3.5 points in the election. Bush may have recovered in the second and third debates, but Kerry gained a huge advantage by winning the first one [7,8].2008 - Obama defeated McCain in the debates and won the election by 7 percentage points. The debates extended Obama's lead [7,8].This shows that incumbents have done a bad job at debates and the only exception is Bill Clinton against Bob Dole. With the race so close, Obama might lose the debate and give Romney the edge. Evidence is on my side.These are my arguments to why Romney has over a 50% chance of winning. The Elephant Watcher average has Romney winning with a 62% chance to win vs. Obama's 38% chance to win [9].1. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...2. http://www.rasmussenreports.com...3. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...4. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com...6. http://www.realclearpolitics.com...7. http://www.gallup.com...8. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...9. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...10. http://www.realclearpolitics.com...