The US vs China (war game debate)

Character space limitations cannot accommodate all of the good reasons for the US to avoid launching a nuclear first strike against China. Obvious reasons, such as Congressional obstruction, public outrage, international interference and public appeals for mercy from the Chinese people directly will play an important role. It is tempting to suspect that our massive nuclear arsenal allows the US the ability to simply press a button, and flush an enemy away into a nuclear holocaust. However, it must be remembered that China shares this ability, even if it exists on a smaller scale than the US might possess. This is because there are “diminishing returns” on nuclear weaponry; there are no good reasons to re-bomb a sterilized wasteland. It is unlikely that an American first strike would eliminate completely and simultaneously the Chinese capacity to launch a retaliatory strike. Nuclear submarines, unknown missile silos, and mobile launch platforms that are not destroyed can cause apocalyptic destruction in the US. Moreover, even the silos that are destroyed by an American attack may be able to launch any number of missiles towards the US before they are destroyed, thanks to Chinese early warning systems. Even a small number of Chinese nuclear missiles in the US would become render the US a toxic wasteland. The American population has become increasingly urban since the 1950’s. [1] Over 82% of Americans live in or near large cities. If only these areas are destroyed with nuclear missiles, then the United States would be effectively wiped out, while China with its massive population, would continue to exist. America has severe limits on the number of nuclear weapons that it can use against China, without also killing millions of residents outside of China’s borders, or triggering a retaliatory strike from Russia. China has no such limits. Although America has more nuclear weapons than the PRC, most of these weapons cannot be used in a hypothetical Total War scenario with China. The US cannot launch nuclear strikes against all parts of China due to over-border spillover of the nuclear destruction. Essentially, only the regions in the Western center of the Chinese map are available for nuclear targeting; even an accurate strike near the Russian Federation border, will be seen as a nuclear attack on Russia itself, since it would inevitably cause mass casualties within that nation as well as China. Attacking these border regions would require a de-facto declaration of war against Russia, Tibet, Mongolia, Thailand and/or India. These border areas are where I am positioning all of my mobile launch nuclear missile equipment. This leaves America with 2 delivery options. First, long range bombers that can use only international airspace to fly into Chinese territory. However, these bombers cannot realistically travel across the Pacific Ocean, into Chinese airspace, and accurately deliver nuclear weapons onto hardened Chinese DF-5A missile silos in large enough quantities to destroy them. Although stealth bombers may be able to carry a sizable nuclear payload into China, they cannot launch the weapons simultaneously, and wipe out all Chinese DF-5A silos. Such an attempt would leave America vulnerable to a ruinous Chinese Counter attack. The second and best option that the US has to disable these DF-5A silos is with the American Trident submarines. A small number of fewer than a dozen of these submarines could simultaneously launch several hundred nuclear weapons that could reach into the Hunan region of China where most of the DF-5A silos are thought to be located It is likely that America would need to maintain conventional military options in the event of a Sino-US war. Most of these options will no longer be available after a nuclear strike, and Troop elements may be needed for domestic recovery following the Chinese counterstrike, and cannot enter battlefields within China that may be contaminated by nuclear radiation. American troops will be needed in the US, and will have limited offensive capabilities, due to the mass casualties in the US. Considering these challenges to America’s launching a nuclear first strike, the Chinese destruction of the entire American population is assured. Even if the Chinese are killed in far greater numbers, and even if China is also destroyed. There is no scenario that can reasonably assure the American decision makers that America will not be annihilated by the Chinese counterstrike. There are no good reasons to think that the counter strike will not occur. These facts remove completely any possibility that America would win a nuclear war with a near-equal such as China. Such a conflict would be a “tie,” in which both sides are erased as important nations. No matter how much damage is done by one side against the other, a full scale nuclear war would eliminate any abilities by both nations to conduct any meaningful actions outside of domestic recovery and rebuilding. The images below are illustrative of the deterrent effects of nuclear arsenals. http://www.debate.org...This image demonstrates how the Chinese mainland "hides" behind the Russian Federation for all but the longest range American ICBM arsenal. Forward projection of nuclear weaponry is mid-to-short range missiles, and cannot penetrate into Hunan Province. These mountains are thought to be home to the many hardened Chinese launch silos. The US cannot launch the midwest silos at any target without triggering an automatic Russian detection and response. http://www.debate.org...This is an image of an actual American nuclear missile silo. It can be fond on Google Earth or Google Maps at: 47.853731,-102.126966 . This photo shows the small size of the silo area, and provides a better understanding of how difficult they are to identify and destroy. http://www.debate.org...This image details the expected fallout of an American massive assault on Hunan province. The mountains in this region will "pool" much of the nuclear damage, but winds and altitude of the airbursts will change the impact somewhat. Most of my mobile nuclear arsenal is positioned near the border with the Russian Federation. If the US targets civilian areas instead of degrading the PRCs nuclear launch facilities, then more of the nuclear arsenal will be available for counterstrike. http://www.debate.org...China cannot destroy the hardened US Silos. Instead strategy will focus on removing the American ability to continue to wage war by erasing the US population. The image above illustrates the expected effects of a nuclear strike of a single Chinese DF-5A missile in New York and Los Angeles. Fires, starvation, radioactive contamination, etc will increse the lethality of all nuclear strikes. However, these effects will be less harmful to the more dispersed Chinese population than the American urban centers. http://www.debate.org... The images above and below describe the fallout patterns following a nuclear counterstrike on the US from China. http://www.debate.org... [2]Conclusion: If the US decides to resort to nuclear war instead of conventional Total War against China, victory is impossible due to the inability of the US to prevent a catastrophic Chinese counterstrike. The best that can be hoped for is mutual extinction. Added to this are the extreme challenges that would accompany the successful implementation of such a decision. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org... [2] http://www.nukestrat.com...