WAR DEBATE: Russian Federation (Pro) vs. China (Con)

"The Chinese begin copying the S 400 systems so generously sold by their Russian counterparts..." To copy the design and begin producing such a machine would not be a process in the matter of days. Weeks at the least would go by before such a thing could actually be put into production. In regards to the HQ-9s, my opponent mentioned that they are naval and therefore would be fired from a ship. It should be noted that their range is only 200 km, so even if the ships were right by Huludao (closest Chinese shore city to Harbin, where the spearhead of the Russian force is located), the city would be way out of range of these missiles. Therefore, the Tu-160 can still function quite freely without fear of anti-air missile attacks. They are at risk only from jets, but as I mentioned earlier, Tu-160 squadrons are supported by Russian jets, so bomber losses wouldn't be too heavy from those. However the S-300 and S-400 systems may indeed pose a problem for the bombers, whose activity is decreased due to the risk. My opponent mentions that the artillery positions were fortified, though I'm a bit confused as to how an artillery position could be fortified in days to the degree of being immune to air-to-ground missiles. May 27: Khabarosk continues receiving reinforcements, airport there being fortified with anti-air missile systems and infantry. Harbin continues being fortified defensively, reinforcements (mostly tanks and artillery) flowing in from Khabarosk. Chinese forces in Kamchatka are ignored. Russia cuts off gas supply to China (cancelling the recent $400 billion contract). Russia also cuts off oil shipments to China, which is another heavy blow considering that Russia is currently China's biggest oil supplier. http://www.reuters.com... http://www.theguardian.com... May 28: Khabarosk continues receiving reinforcements, mostly tanks, AFVs and artillery pieces. Harbin defense-operation continues, trenches being built, artillery being setup and anti-air missile systems being calibrated and hidden. May 29: Chinese fleet moving to Vladivostok is detected. Khabarosk fortifications complete. This is critical because it's essentially the only link between the Russian attacking forces and the Russian mainland. The city is defended heavily. The Russian S-400 and S-300 anti-air systems are being transported here now as well, as it's relatively safe area. At this, about half of Russia's supply of T-90 tanks is located at Khabarosk, and the other half in Harbin. The garrison at Harbin (about 150% of what it was upon arrival) starts preparing for an offensive towards Changchun. This force will be called the Harbin group. May 30: Massive Chinese force of 100,000 marines located, but their size was significantly underestimated. The Harbin group continues preparing for an offensive as reinforcements continue flowing in. The Khabarosk garrison puts artillery and infantry on the shores Amur river coming from the North, making landing from the river into the city very difficult. June 1: Russians are indeed surprised by attack on Sakhalin, but there is no significant response. Because there were not many Russian forces on the island, an attempt to break the blockade is not made. Instructions were given to the soldiers to escape the island via ship if possible, but the blockade was quite thorough and most soldiers ended up fighting and dying. The defense of Khabarosk (now very aware of the significant threat on the East) begins re-coordinating the defense of the city to be prepared for an attack from the East, South-East as well as continuing fortifying the Amur river entrance into the city. The Harbin group starts moving once more. The core of this attack group is its massive armored unit composed of T-90s and older Soviet AFVs that allow for quick and safe transport. The group starts moving towards Changchun, meeting relatively insignificant resistance along the way as defenses haven't been prepared here. The group uses major roads and highways to increase efficiency and speed of transport. June 5: Yesterday Sakhalin fell and came under virtually total Chinese control. The Tu-160 bombers (the several that are left) carry out bombing runs once or twice a day on the island, taking advantage of the fact that the Chinese haven't yet had time to transport serious anti-air equipment to the area. June 6: The Harbin group arrives at Changchun. Tu-160 bomber runs are continued, focusing on the coastal harbors to slow down Chinese transportation. Wasting no time at all, the Harbin group moves onward, towards Beijing. The group takes the route through Tongliao, Chifeng, Chengde and then to Beijing. Along this road, the group leaves behind artillery and infantry to create a ring around Shenyang and the areas surrounding it, making it very difficult for any supply or civilian transportation to occur to and from the city. Also blocking in any military forces located there. The group is currently halfway between Harbin and Tongliao. The supply line (mostly trucks and AFVs) extends to keep up with the advancing Harbin group. Seeing the very real threat from Sakhalin, the Khabarosk garrison is commanded to send less troops down to Harbin and keep more in the city itself. June 7: The Harbin group arrives at Tongliao, set up some defensive positions as a part of the ring to enclose Shenyang and then continues moving onward. The Chinese forces "begin with naval artillery along the entire front- destroying much of the railways and Russian Artillery stationed" and then stop, realizing all of their rounds are falling short because the distance from Khabarosk to the coast is around 100 miles. Never is bombed but again, there is little response from the Russian side, as this is not a critical point worth defending. Decreased oil and gas supply to China starts taking its toll, government has to re-coordinate where and how the resources are spent. Khabarosk stops sending troops and equipment to Harbin for fear of Chinese assault. Harbin garrison (now very weak because the main forces have moved on) digs trenches and continues use of defensive perimeter set up by the Harbin group that's now at Tongliao. June 8: The Harbin group is now about halfway between Tongliao and Chifeng, continuing the "containment ring" around the Shenyang area. The Khabarosk garrison continues sending ammunition to the Harbin group through Harbin and Changchun, but keeps the incoming tanks, AFVs, artillery and infantry for itself, anxiously awaiting the coming onslaught that's bound to happen sooner or later. June 9: Aggressive Chinese assault is made on the Russian coast around the Amur river. Not many forces were located there so the Chinese take over the coast-line very quickly indeed. Khabarosk garrison becomes aware of this. The Harbin force arrives at Chifeng, almost completing the ring around Shenyang. The force stops its advance and prepares defensive positions in Chifeng because since Khabarosk is no longer sending supplies, the advance cannot continue without risk of flanking and failure. The Harbin group starts fortifying Chifeng and waits for Khabarosk to continue sending resources. June 11: The assault is finally made on Khabarosk. The Chinese forces are slowed down significantly for several reasons. It's virtually impossible to continue advance along the Amur river due to this being one of the focal points of the defense. The massive artillery force set up at the city fires on the advancing and encamped Chinese forces, destroying equipment, men and morale. June 12: Not sure how 30 amphibious vehicles could be the spearhead of an attack on a city with over a hundred tanks, hundreds of artillery pieces and tens of thousands of soldiers. The defense of Khabarosk continues. Heavy losses occur on both sides, but it is indeed the Chinese that must attack a position that has been being reinforced and fortified for over half a month now. June 13: Supplies continue to be flown into Khabarosk and allow the defensive force here to remain solid. The Russians begin to run low on ammunition due to the massive amount of Chinese forces at the gates, as well as the transport of munitions to the Harbin group earlier. June 14: The Russian forces are pushed back several blocks into the city, but the airport remains under Russian control, as well as the majority of the city. Outflanking of Harbin doesn't yet occur as such an infantry and ground based assault on Khabarosk couldn't have succeeded considering the amount of fortification that has been done. The next part of my opponent's round was a bit confusing. Reason being, he just started fortifying cities and areas that have long since been taken over (he waited too long to complete this step). Also, of course it is up to judges and voters to judge, but it seems virtually impossible the the Chinese force took over the massive, defending Khabarosk garrison in two days. Therefore his plans of moving South from Khabarosk cannot yet be executed. He mentions that China begins looking for new oil suppliers, but there will still be a gap where there is a shortage of oil (hard to replace so much so quickly). June 18: Vladivostok is under Chinese control, though not sure how realistic it is for the city to start producing stuff for Chinese military, don't think it has the factories. June 20: Assault on Khabarosk having temporarily slowed, the supply line from the city to the Harbin group continues. June 25: Having received further reinforcements, the Harbin group (now at Chifeng) pushes onward towards Chengde, essentially completing the ring around Shenyang. June 27: Russian forces arrive at Chengde. Through this entire path, there has been resistance to Harbin group but little (no defense prepared by Chinese). Chengde is being fortified by Russians and continues receiving forces for Harbin group.