Trump's Reelection

Thanks to Nd2 for the debate. I'll now present my case. I. The Unpopularity ProblemA. Comparison to Previous Reelection FailuresSince the beginning of modern polling, only 3 Presidents who stood for reelection failed to prevail in their reelection bids. Those presidents are Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and GHW Bush. Understanding how Trump is faring a year in compared to these Presidents may give us a decent indication of whether he is likely to endure their fate. The average difference between Trump's net approval rating and the net approval rating of these three Presidents is 49.3 points. In other words, Trump is 49.3 points less popular (at this point in their presidencies) than the last three presidents who lost reelection [1]. B. Trump is Historically UnpopularIn fact, Trump's net approval ratings on year in have never matched or exceeded those of any of the last 12 presidents [1]. It is not hyperbole to say that Trump is historically unpopular. His approval rating has never risen above 47.8% and has spent more time below 40% than above it. On the flip side, Trump's disapproval rating has been over 50% for 11 consecutive months. None of the last 12 presidents ended their first years in office with net negative approval ratings. In other words, since 1945, no President ever reached the levels of deep unpopularity that Trump has during their first year in office [1]. C. Trump has Hemorrhaged SupportAnd the thing is, Trump didn't just start out low, he has spent most of the last year on a downward polling trend. He is actively losing support as time goes on. From his high point earlier this year until now, Trump has hemorrhaged 8.3 percentage points in his approval rating [1]. Given that his highest approval rating (47.8%) is similar to his electoral performance in 2016 (46.1%), if we assume that even just half of the voters in that 8.3% choose to vote for another candidate come 2020, Trump is almost certain to lose, capturing only about 42% of the vote. D. The Special ElectionsMoreover, actual election results are confirming that the Republicans are in a bad place right now. The various special elections held in 2017 showed that Democrats were outperforming districts' partisan leans by an average of 16%. A partisan lean the way in which a district would be expected to vote "in a neutral environment (i. e. an environment in which a Democratic and Republican presidential candidate would tie 50-50 nationally). " [2]II. MiscellaneousA. Shifting Views of TrumpVoters are finding Trump to be less and less moderate. "Since before Trump took office, YouGov has been asking voters to place Trump on an ideological scale from 'very liberal' to 'very conservative. ' Compared to a four-week average in the lead-up to Trump"s inauguration, the most recent four-week average finds far fewer voters saying he is moderate or liberal and far more saying he is conservative. " [3] This is significant, since Trump cast himself as an atypical Republican who could reach across both sides of the aisle to forge lasting deals. As the image of him as a moderate deal-maker erodes, he will probably lose the moderates and independents who voted for him in the hopes that he could bridge the partisan divide. B. Things Aren't Getting Better for TrumpIt seems unlikely Trump's position will improve going forward. Mueller's investigation seems to be destined to carry on through 2018 and maybe beyond (as the talking heads on CNN never cease to remind us). Moreover, to state the obvious, Trump is exceedingly gaffe prone. From mis-tweeting about FISA to calling African nations sh*thole countries, it seems that Trump is unable to stop himself from engaging in political self-harm. His irascible nature make him few allies within his administration, and it's clear GOP congressional leadership is becoming increasingly disenchanted with him. From Paul Ryan having to put out fires after the FISA and CR tweets to McConnell publicly admitting he has no idea where the President is on immigration reform, it seems like Trump's credibility (or what little he had) in DC is crumbling beneath him. Trump's presidency is floundering in any number of ways, and his missteps, faux pas, and crass behavior consistantly distract from whatever "good" news his administration could've been touting instead. III. Trump Barely Won in 2016Putting aside, for the moment, the fact that Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, let's focus on what got him the Presidency: the electoral college. On the face of it, the 306-232 skew in Trump's favor seems impressive, but, in point of fact, it was only barely cobbled together. [5]A. Democratic Pathways to Electoral College VictoryBefore I launch into an analysis of how flimsy Trump's win actual was, let's first assess the possible avenues for victory for a democratic challenger to Trump. Assuming that all the states that voted for Clinton vote for the democrat in 2020, a democrat would need only 269 votes to win. Why is that? Assuming a tied electoral college (269-269), the Constitution provides that the House of Representatives will decide the outcome of the election. Since all signs point to the House being in democratic control moving forward, it's logical to assume that they would vote to select the Democratic candidate. A democrat could reach or exceed the 269 threshold by winning (1) PA, MI, and ME's 2nd Congressional District (ME2); (2) PA, MI, and WI; (3) FL and any one of the following: PA, MI, or WI. These are the most likely pathways, though there are outside chances of winning with AZ or NC and some combination of the others. Even more remotely but still plausible: winning with OH or IA. [4]B. Trump's Flimsy Electoral College CoalitionSo, back to Trump's "flimsy" win. Why do I say it was flimsy, and why does that matter? Well, it was flimsy because Trump barely won the states that got him elected, and that matters because these states should therefore not be hard to flip. Let's take a look at some results [5] one-by-one:ME2: Trump won this delegate by some 37,000 votes out of some 350,000 cast. About 28,000 votes were votes cast for Johnson, Stein, or McMullin--votes which were probably cast out of mutual disgust for both Clinton and Trump. It is highly plausible that a less odious Democrat could win a lot of those disgruntled voters; if Trump sheds any voters, as he probably will, or if his voters stay at home, then this delegate could easily go to the Democrat. FL: This is a similar situation to ME2. Trump won in FL by about 100,000 votes, but the votes for third parties numbered around 300,000. A democrat has a viable path to victory there by winning some of these third party voters back and by either convincing Trump voters to switch their vote or to stay at home on election day. MI: Trump won MI by just 10,704 votes. PA: Trump won PA by just 44,292 votes. WI: Trump won WI by only 22,784 votes. In each one of these states, more than 3 million votes were cast. And, in each one of these states, Jill Stein won more votes than the total number of votes separating Trump and Clinton; Stein falls on the left, so the natural alternative for her voters would be the Democrat. So it's again likely that a more likable Democrat could not only woo back voters who fled to third parties, but could capitalize on Trump's historic unpopularity to steal voters away from him. AZ: Trump won AZ by about 91,000 votes out of 2.3 million cast. NC: Trump won NC by about 173,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million cast. Both AZ and NC are trending blue, and NC has a Democratic governor. As demographic shifts continue to push these states closer to the Democratic camp, they will be even more in-play by 2020 then they were for 2016. In truth, Trump won the election by a meager 77,780 votes. That number represents his combined margin of victory for MI, WI, and PA--the states that won him the election. Out of 13.6 million votes cast in those states, that number represents just 0.57%. [5] All a Democrat needs to do to win in these states is to convince enough Trump voters to stay home or to switch their votes, and maybe coax a few third-party voters to vote for them, and they would probably win these states and the Presidency. B. The Enthusiasm GapIt is political gospel that general elections tend to favor Democrats. But even setting that aside, the Democrats have enthusiasm on their side, and that will help power them to victory. Trump's "strong disapproval rating. .. is now 47.4 percent, up from 44.1 percent on May 23. And Trump"s strong approval rating is just 20.4 percent, down a tick from 21.4 percent in May. " [6] Strong (dis)approval numbers are important indicators of enthusiasm, because they give insight into how excited or committed a voter is about/to their candidate. The fact that more people revile Trump than love him suggests, as the Special Election results seem to confirm, that the enthusiasm lies on the Democrat's side. This could seriously hurt Trump, particularly when his margins of victory in key states were so razor thin last cycle. Unenthusiastic voters are more likely to just not vote at all, and if Trump's voters stay at home, the Democrat will likely prevail. IV. ConclusionSo, what are the key takeaways here? Trump is historically unpopular, and his unpopularity is going to handicap him moving forward. Democrats are energized, and well-positioned to beat Trump in states Trump only barely won in the first place. And the political situation for Trump is only deteriorating. In short, Trump is more likely than not to lose his reelection bid. V. Sources1 - . https://tinyurl.com...2 - . https://tinyurl.com...3 - . https://tinyurl.com...4 - . https://www.270towin.com...5 - . https://en.wikipedia.org...6 - . https://tinyurl.com...Thanks.