Mitt Romney Has a Good Chance of Winning

My Refutations1. The Economy - It seems the people know that Bain Capitol is not the main issue in the economy. In fact, Obama's attacks on Bain have not done much and no one has gained. The first time Obama launched the ads he received attacks from some prominent Democrats. These attacks might backfire again. My first video explains this (note: this is only explained in the opener). Furthermore, Romney still holds a small lead in the latest Rasmussen polls. There has also been a drop in Obama's job approval. 44% now disapprove of his handeling of the economy while 39% approve. That is down 5 points from April. For the first time since January, more voters now think the economy is getting worse. No doubt this will decline Obama's popularity. Finally, my opponent points out the wealth of Romney. However, this fails because several presidents have been wealthy and were still elected by the people. George Washington is still one of the most wealthy presidents in our country's history. So to was John F. Kennedy, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush. These presidents have all been elected, no matter their wealth [1,2]. So Romney gains over a 50% advantage in the economy.2. He Looks Presidential - It is true that both Obama and Romney seem presidential, but that means that for Romney, he does not have the disadvantage from not being presidential. Romney seems well aware of the issues and intelligent. Other candidates like Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry did not have such advantage in the race for nomination (Bachmann was seen by the liberal media as a laughing stock and Perry made serious gaffes in the debates). Romney has not done as much so he does not have a disadvantage here. Thus, Obama does not gain an over 50% advantage in the election in terms of being presidential.3. A Well-Organized Campaign - First off, my opponent's first argument is that Romney does not have a good campaign because he was always at second place in the campaign, yet he battled 10 other candidates (Bachmann, Cain, Perry, Huntsman, Paul, Johnson, Pawlenty, Santorum, Gingrich, Roemer) to get that second spot early in the race and that is a feat right there. The main reason many of these candidates blew up was that they were not as good as Romney in the debates. He significantly defeated Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum mainly at the debates. So Romney is a good candidate. Also, the point of this argument is just the campaign itself and how organized and funded it is. Both of us cannot deny that both Obama's and Romney's campaign are organized and funded well. So no one gains over 50% from this. 4. A Good Debater - There will be no doubt that there will be some time put into Romney's policies during the debates. However, the most significant "weakness" of Romney's policies is supposedly Romneycare and that it is the "same" as Obamacare. This is false. There are several differences between Obamacare and Romneycare. So much for "policy reversals." Then my opponent goes on to say that Obama will be prepped before the debates, yet there is where that list of past debates comes in. I am sure every incumbent has been prepped in the debates, yet the only incumbent to win one was Bill Clinton against Bob Dole. Incumbents do bad because the last time they really had a debate was when they debated against their opponent in the debate for them to be elected. Obama and past incumbents have not really debated since that and are thus at a disadvantage. Romney has over a 50% advantage in the debates. 5. He is a Mormon - My opponent has somewhat conceded that it is too close to call in terms of religion and race. The reason why Romney has an advantage here is because the people in his religion will vote for him. Blacks largely voted for Obama in 2008, yet they may less after seeing his dissapointing presidency. Thus Romney gets the large Mormon vote and more black votes. Romney has over a 50% advantage here. 6. The Polls - My opponent's first argument is simply the name of the website. Yet the reason why it is called Elephant Watcher is because of the 2012 race for nomination. It followed the Republican nomination which is why it is called Elephant Watcher. There was no real race for nomination for the Democrats, so it made sense to follow the Republican race only, thus it got its name Elephant Watcher. Furthermore, it was correct in predicting the 2008 race for nomination as Romney one. There calculations predicted Romney would win. My opponent then states that it is mathematically false. This is wrong. First off, the race has just started and Romney seems to have the advantage, thus it makes sense that Romney is winning in the calculations. The calculations simply represent that Romney will likely win the race as of now, it does recalculate. Elephant Watcher predicts past the polls. Finally, all my opponent did was attack my source rather than the facts that the polls and Real Clear Politics average is simply wrong. I can bring up more sources, showing that the current poll average includes a lot of registered voters polls and that the most accurate are likely voters polls and thus the average at RCP is inaccurate and the one at Elephant Watcher is more accurate [4,5,6].7. Obama's Weaknesses - First off, my opponent states that my arguments are essentially false. Let's look at them. The first was on the economy. I have stated already that many people may find this economy at the worst state in their lives and I can prove it from the previous sources I have provided. My opponent then admits that he wished Obama had done more. This actually helps my argument that people on the left were dissapointed while people on the right were alienated. I am personally on the right and I feel alienated by Obama's agenda. So there is the second argument. Thirdly, I have state that Obamacare has done down as incredily unpopular and I have proved this through the Rasmussen polls, but in fact the grand majority of polls show that Obamacare is tremendously unpopular. Never has Obamacare gained a lead or a huge lead in the majority of the polls, it is obvious that most people are against it [1,7,8]. 1. http://decoded.nationaljournal.com...2. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...3. http://spectator.org...4. http://www.elephantwatcher.com...5. http://www.breitbart.com...6. http://race42012.com...7. http://www.rasmussenreports.com...8. http://www.realclearpolitics.com...http://www.youtube.com...