A creator/creators probably exists

Pro must review the criteria and definitions of the debate which he himself set up.It seems that Pro has essentially forfeited the debate. He is left with asserting that the probability of a creator is 50/50, which is bare assertion based on a conceptual misunderstanding of probability theory and the notion of probability in the most basic sense. Reviewing the title of the debate and the very first round, Pro challenged me to a debate where he took on the BoP in order to prove that the odds of a creator existing is strictly greater than 50%. Asserting that the probability is 50% is then a concession and a forfeiture. Is the probability distribution of any binary decision with unknown outcome 50/50? In round 3 I gave a brief outline of the difference between frequentist and Bayesianist interpretation and usage of probabilities. I recommend the Pro and any readers that they familiarize themselves with this distinction because it is extremely useful for understanding what is really meant by probability, probability estimates, and related concepts. Pro’s response leaves me with the impression that he did not bother to read through the round or has not understood most of it. Pro has failed to understand that the probability distribution of any binary decision with unknown outcome is not 50/50 by default. I did say in the previous round that if he wanted to make use of that as a Bayesian prior, then he is justified in saying that since there is no evidence for or against a God, then he is purely agnostic and his a priori belief about the probability of a creator 50%. However, this is distinct from the actual probability. Let me illustrate with an example: Suppose we have a biased coin with a 60% chance of landing heads, but we are unaware of this bias. What Pro is saying is that since we don’t know anything about the coin, the probability is 50% heads. However, the actual probability is not 50% heads. What Pro is describing is his belief about the probability that this is heads (this is mathematically valid in Bayesian inference, but statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists are usually careful to distinguish between the probability space of events and our usage of beliefs about the probability spaces of events in inference). The odds of heads is still 60%, and this can be determined by conducting multiple trials as in the frequentist method or by a simple application of Bayes Theorem. However, under no conditions is it correct to say that the probability of heads is 50% for the reason that we don’t know any better yet. Under all methods of estimating probabilities, the probability of heads is still unknown. This may seem like a pedantic point, as most technical points do to non-experts in a field (the reason for this is an entirely different topic of discussion which is interesting in its own right). However, it is important in the following way: this debate is about the probability of there being a creator – not about Pro’s belief about the probability that there is a creator. Nowhere has Pro indicated that we are debating whether or not he believes the probability of a creator is greater than 50% (which wouldn’t make for much of a debate topic), and Pro’s naïve conclusion that the probability of a creator is 50% suggests that he has so far not understood the distinction between the probability of something and his belief about the probability of something. Conclusion: Pro seems to have dropped all arguments and simply asserted that the probability of God is 50% because it can’t be proven or disproven either way. This is of course an absurd position considering all of the absurd binary states we can imagine and apparently arbitrarily ascribe a 50/50 probability over (remember, you cannot prove nor disprove that I implanted you with false memories, so it’s 50/50). I do hope that Pro recalls that he must show that the probability of a creator or creators is greater than 50%, according to his own rules of the debate. Arguing, albeit unsuccessfully, that the probability is 50% would be arguing in my favour. I would prefer that Pro argue his own side of the debate. Finally, Pro states that my lack of agreement with his 50/50 odds of a creator implies that I have a poor understanding of probability. The “if you don’t agree with me then you don’t know what you’re talking about” argument is not typically an effective debate tactic. However, if Pro wants to make this point, then I would ask that he substantiate that claim and point out my errors specifically. Probability theory and mathematical statistics being the core theoretical foundation of my research, I would very much appreciate any new knowledge Pro can bestow on to me and especially any corrections of misunderstandings I may have.