Stock Market is a Random Walk

My opponent states, "I will argue that the market must be random in the sense that it cannot be predictable on a quantum level because of the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle." =========================================================== The Uncertainty Principal is Non-Deterministic, but that does not mean it is completely random: First it is important to understand that the Uncertainty Principal has nothing to do with Randomness, all though the lay public interprets it that way. Quantum Mechanics is non-deterministic and this is probably where the confusion lies in that some may believe that non-deterministic is synonymous with random (it is not). We find the wave function (Psi) and using the Schrodinger wave equation, we look at time evolution of the wave function. A wave packet of a single electron spreads out over time and therefore the uncertainty equation holds quite well. The best that Quantum Mechanics can give is the probability of the event happening, which certainly is NOT completely Random. ======================================================== The Quantum Level becomes indistinguishable from the classical system with scale: My opponent explains measurements at the Quantum level, however when we increase the size and slow the speed - we eventually reach a size and speed in which the initial momentum p (t=0) and position x(t=0). We have now moved from the Quantum level to the Classical level (the world that we experience). In physics, the correspondence principle states that the behavior of systems described by a theory of quantum mechanics reproduces classical physics in the limit of large quantum numbers. As the number of discrete states in the quantum-mechanical system becomes very large, the system becomes indistinguishable from the classical system and the classical system IS deterministic. ============================================= Classical Mechanics are deterministic: Newtonian Physics (Classical Mechanics) IS deterministic. When momentum p(t=0) and position x(t=0) along with the forces acting on an object of mass will determine with absolute accuracy the position and momentum of the object at any time later (t>0). An example is ballistics, which uses Classical (Newton) Mechanics, IS deterministic. We use mass, velocity, wind, gravity, and other variables to determine accuracy of a bullet to its target. No doubt that the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle still applies on the quantum level as electrons in the actual bullet flying through the air are moving in a non-deterministic manner, but that uncertainty principal does not affect the accuracy (level of measurement in the classical world – our world) at the scale needed to produce the results. ============================================== My opponents logic fails at the Classical Level: Using my opponents logic, "Therefore, on a quantum level, I argue that the [bullet] is in fact unpredictable. Because the quantum level is the fundamental level of the physical world, I argue that all other levels of description can be reduced to a quantum level. And therefore, I argue that the [bullet] is unpredictable on all levels." In our "world" we experience 99.9999% Classical effects, not quantum effects. That doesn't mean that quantum effects are not in play, they just are not a factor on a larger scale of measurement. Quantum mechanics does not determine the bullets accuracy any more than it can be used to determine randomness of the stock market. =================================== Classical Scale and the world we live in: The 4 areas of physics are divided based on speed and size. Classical Physics / Quantum Mechanics / Special Realitivity / Quantum Electro Dynamics QED. We experience (in our observable world) "Classical Physics" - it is the slowest and largest scale of the 4 areas, it is the observable. My opponent argues that everything can be reduced to the quantum level, that is true when we break everything down to single discrete states and at that level it becomes non-deterministic (not random). However, as we scale back up – the number of discrete states become large and indistinguishable from the classical system and the classical system IS deterministic. The scale that we (humans) operate, observe, measure, and interact with is at the Classical Mechanical Level. The stock market, bullets, cars, sports, planes, and almost everything we experience is measured in the classical level. This doesn't mean the quantum level doesn't have any effect, but that effect is discrete – like the electrons moving non-deterministically in the bullet. When the bullet is fired it will hit and damage its target. No doubt before, during, and after the bullet has been fired the uncertainty principal continues to operate, but at that quantum level – which did not determine the accuracy or the damage the bullet caused. The accuracy and damage are determined by Classical Mechanics. ============================================== My opponent failed to prove the market is completely random: Vote Con, as my opponent has failed to prove the market is completely random - as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle -while non-deterministic is not completely random and only applies on the sub-electron level. I further proved that as the number of discrete states becomes larger, the system becomes indistinguishable from the classical system. And the classical system is deterministic as easily demonstrated by ballistics. It would be unwise to argue with the man with the pointy end of the gun that is aimed at your head, that the bullet's accuracy is random because of the uncertainly principal at the quantum level.