Resolved: The Iranian Nuclear Deal is a "mistake."

Thank you lannan13 for your arguments. I will lay out my arguments in favor of deal. But I'll start with a humorous picture as well: C1: Degrades Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Capabilities The agreement accomplishes the following: Reduces Iran’s installed centrifuges by two-thirds Nuclear weapons have fissile material that is derived from uranium, which is enriched through installed centrifuges. The deal slashes Iran’s centrifuges by 2/3rds. Limits Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67% Iran will have the nuclear infrastructure that allows them to produce peaceful nuclear energy. Iran WILL NOT be able to produce weapons-grade uranium or plutonium. Iran will be unable to produce a nuclear weapon. Annihilates 97% of Iran’s nuclear stockpile Iran will be allowed to keep 300kg of its 10,000kg stockpile of low-enriched uranium. [1] This nuclear stockpile will only function with nuclear power plants. It cannot become weapons-grade. Limits Iran’s uranium enrichment “Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility… which Tehran may use to produce low-enriched uranium.” [1] [2] It will be under constant monitoring by the IAEA [2]. The facility will exclusively utilize IR-1 centrifuges (the most rudimentary). So Iran will be able to enrich uranium at a single location, and this uranium will only function with nuclear power plants. C2: Heavy Enforcement Provisions Inspections and Oversight The IAEA - an international organization - “will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities” [1]. Furthermore, the IAEA will be able to inspect “all parts of Iran’s nuclear supply chain” [3]. The IAEA will be able to investigate [2] [3]: The two uranium mines in Iran The single uranium enrichment facility at Natanz The two repurposed heavy water reactors at Arak and Fordow Every single centrifuge in Iran Every centrifuge production facility Every uranium ore processing mill Every import that could become nuclear-related equipment (all PMD materials need IAEA pre-approval) Every suspicious site in Iran On top of all of this, Iran will become a part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran from developing or acquiring nuclear weapons and places IAEA safeguards on any nuclear infrastructure [1]. Snapback Mechanism If Iran somehow manages to cheat on the deal, all of the U.N. Security Council sanctions will snapback into place [1]. Implementation Iran does not benefit from the treaty until the IAEA “has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps.” [2] If there is a disagreement, treaty participants initially go through a "dispute resolution process", and if disagreements cannot be resolved, the sanctions are reinstated. C3: Economic Opportunities Energy Iran will eventually be able to contribute upwards of 800,000 barrels of oil each day to the global energy market [4]. This will spur downward pressure on crude oil prices, and consequently American consumers will significantly benefit from cheaper fuel and gas. Trade Global trade will be able to expand as Iran becomes more integrated with the global economy. Greater opportunities for selling products abroad and importing cheaper goods at home will help strengthen nations around the globe. The expansion of trade will help strengthen nations such as our E.U. partners. In our interconnected world, the higher economic performance in areas such as Europe and Asia will allow the U.S. economy to grow faster as well. C4: Benefits to the Iranian People Windflow to Iran’s Economy The Iranians will have an expected $100 billion windfall as a result of lifting the international sanctions. This will help the people of Iran, who are currently in a state of stagnation and depravity. According to The World Factbook, unemployment is about 23%, the inflation rate is 42%, industrial capacity is contracting by over 5% each year, and the nation has been in recession since 2012. Furthermore, there is widespread corruption and product shortages. Emigration has led to skill shortages. [4] Half of Iranians “lack adequate money for food, shelter” [11]. Will Iran funnel this cash to their proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere? The CIA has predicted that “Iran is unlikely to spend most of its post-sanctions funds on militants” [5] Iran is currently restless, which ushered in the election of President Ruhani in 2013. Their government would likely use its funds to help its own people. Furthermore, “U.S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.” [1] Iran's Government Today Iran currently has a theocratic republic. There have been gross human rights violations, such as the killing of dissidents and civilians. Political prisoners have been tortured and killed. Those who are juvenile offenders, curse the Prophet, or engage in any LGBT relations are subject to death. [7] [8] Indeed, the Human Rights Watch (an NGO) concluded that “Iran’s human rights record has deteriorated markedly” within the last decade or so. [6] Increased International Engagement Clearly, Iran ought to reform its economic, political, and judicial institutions. But it is unlikely to do this on its own. Its people are oppressed, and the government is using its oppression to preclude reform as long as it can. Political scientist Ian Bremmer wrote in his book The J Curve that there is a relationship between a country’s openness and its stability. The idea is that oppressive governments can increase stability by reducing political and social rights. [9] If Iran becomes open to global commerce and engagement, if Iran benefits from Western investment and soft power, “the likelihood that over a longer period of time the Iranian government opens a little and maybe a lot is much greater.” [10] If we can place pressure on the Iranian government to reform its institutions – not give them a blank check through isolation – it would help the Iranian people and pressure a hostile government to change. C5: The Best Option on the Table We have to consider this situation from a realist perspective. There are clearly two paths the United States can take forward (excluding war). One option is to agree to this comprehensive framework. The second option is the reject the treaty. Option 1: Accepting the Iran Deal The benefits listed above will come into play. Iran will have a clearly capped level of uranium enrichment, which is only 1/25th of the level needed to produce a nuclear weapon. The IAEA will have the full ability to inspect all “possible military dimensions” (PMD) of Iran’s nuclear activities. We will have full knowledge of every part of Iran’s nuclear supply chain. If Iran happens to try and cheat, it will take them about a year to produce a nuclear weapon. To quote nuclear nonproliferation expert Aaron Stein: “The likelihood of [Iran] getting caught is near 100 percent… it makes the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon in the next 25 years extremely remote.” [12] The Iranians will also be forced to have greater engagement with the world, which will pressure its population to demand structural reforms. Option 2: Rejecting the Iran Deal Iran will continue to enrich weapons-grade plutonium. Iran will be able to produce dozens of nuclear weapons, with zero limitations whatsoever. Iran will be allowed to have unlimited centrifuges, and they will be allowed to import materials that could be incorporated into their nuclear program. The status quo has the dangerous possibility of igniting a regional nuclear arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The deal prevents Iran from getting any nuclear weapons, the status quo does not. Iran will also have a blank check to blame the U.S. and Israel for its suffering. Conclusion The Iranian nuclear deal will prevent the Iranians from producing or acquiring a nuclear weapon. It caps enrichment at 1/25th the level of what is needed to produce a nuclear weapon. It cuts their stockpile of enriched uranium by 97%. It reduces their centrifuges by two-thirds and they can only be the rudimentary category – i.e. are the most basic. Furthermore, the IAEA has full access to Iran’s entire supply chain. If they violate these and other conditions, all the sanctions “snap back” into place. The status quo is to allow Iran to have unlimited uranium enrichment, the ability to produce multiple nuclear weapons, and no limitations on its nuclear infrastructure. Sources: [1] http://tinyurl.com... [2] http://tinyurl.com... [3] http://tinyurl.com... [4] The World Factbook. Version 7.02. Electronic Application. 2014. [5] http://tinyurl.com... [6] http://tinyurl.com... [7] http://tinyurl.com... [8] http://tinyurl.com... [9] The J Curve. Ian Bremmer. 2006. Print. [10] http://tinyurl.com... [11] http://tinyurl.com... [12] http://tinyurl.com...