Climate Change Is Not an Imminent Danger

Right, last round my sources had a problem, but I’ve reposted them in the comments section.I thank my opponent for the fantastic debate, and may the best arguments win.C1: Public HealthFirst, I’d like to note that Pro hasn’t addressed my points about dengue fever or yellow fever.To argue that infections decrease in warming periods misses the fact that over the past century or so we’ve made significant strides in treatments for tropical diseases such as malaria, as well as in fighting mosquito outbreaks[cite]. My argument is that all things being equal, an increase in temperature results in an increase in the spread of mosquito-born diseases. The fact that malaria can survive outside of the tropics is rather incidental to whether or not it is more virulent in the tropics. Pro concludes that since malaria rates have decreased over time, and it has happened outside the tropics, malaria would not be affected by global warming.The problem with this is that malaria rates (and pretty much every other tropical disease rate) responds to whatever’s forcing it, just like climate. Keep your temperature steady and leave standing water everywhere and you get more malaria. Kill mosquitos and keep everything else constant and malaria rates drop.We know that malaria is more virulent in warmer areas[1]. Therefore, as the world warms, we either are faced with an increase in malaria cases or have to expand our public health infrastructure to prevent them from occurring in the first place. The first can result in an increase in deaths, the second would have to be very well planned to avoid all deaths and would still result in economic damages. Ergo, we can conclude that a warming world presents risk.As far as heat deaths, this data may be true for the UK and Germany, but it is not necessarily true universally. Many low-income areas are in hot areas rather than cold ones, so quite conceivably that could cause there to still be a net increase in fatalities.C2: Sea Level RiseI don’t argue for an apocalypse where the ocean rises twenty feet.First I’d like to note that Tuvalu has an average elevation of about six feet above sea level. The highest point is fifteen feet[2]. So it doesn’t necessarily take much to cause damage. Also, there are waves, and tides, so even if a given area would still be above average sea level, that doesn’t mean it won’t get water damage.Secondly, sea level rise isn’t going to be constant everywhere. This is due to a variety of factors, such as the gravitational pull of the Earth being slightly different in different locations, temperature variations, and tectonic plates[3].Unfortunately for Tuvalu, it sits in what is probably the most unfortunate location a bunch of low-level coral atolls could[4]. Sea level in Tuvalu rises about three times as fast as in other locations[5].About 2.8 inches could matter quite a bit for an island that’s about six feet above sea level when one accounts for the fact that for them it could quite possibly be more in the range of 8 inches.This same reasoning can be applied to other locations. Brazil is close to an area that has a higher sea level[6].As to Pro’s claim that sea level is falling, the only thing that his source says that supports that is that the level fell slightly in one specific area in Western Canada, by .5 mm. That is hardly a global sea level drop, and satellite data confirms that sea level is rising[7].C3: Ocean AcidificationThat same paper cited concedes that calcification would be adversely impacted. As calcifying organisms are an essential part of the food chain, this doesn’t do much to dismiss my claim that ocean acidification poses a risk.In relation to the claim that increased carbon dioxide could be beneficial to shells, experiments with increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in seawater where shells are growing refute that. Shell dissolution is far more affected than shell calcification[8], in any event.While it’s true that pH isn’t fixed in the ocean, that doesn’t mean that shifting the whole range of pH values downwards, towards the more acidic end of the scale, would necessarily be acceptable. If I’m adapted to survive climates of 10-20 degrees Celsius, and it shifts upwards two or three degrees, I’m experiencing significant environmental stress. Since a drop in pH of one (say, from four to three) is a tenfold increase, since pH is a logarithmic scale, the problem with pH is even bigger.C4: Cloud ForestsIt’s true that Lawton’s paper shows that deforestation is having a significant effect on the cloud forests. It would be a mistake, however, to conclude from this that global warming has no effect. Modeling has demonstrated that increases in carbon dioxide would indeed affect the cloud forests[9]. Obviously deforestation has an effect to, as does general land use, but it can’t be gathered from the fact that damage to the cloud forests is caused by multiple factors that global warming has no effect.It is true that precipitation, in some regions, increases due to global warming. And it’s true that worse droughts have happened in the past. However, I must ask my opponent: Would you prefer a severe drought that is less severe than a massive drought that caused widespread damage, or would you prefer no drought at all? As Pro’s own source points out, droughts that are accompanied by warmer temperatures impact the environment more.Furthermore, global warming alters air circulation patterns, causing the distribution of moisture to change[11]. Even if all else remains equal, certain parts are going to get drier and other parts will get wetter--which has the potential for negative consequences, as noted in my source. For instance, recent droughts in the Sahel are expected to increase in severity due to global warming.Conclusion:I’ve demonstrated that the evidence points towards global warming not being due to the Sun—while I haven’t demonstrated that humans caused global warming, I don’t really need to. Given that the equations that are the current scientific consensus about how to predict warming match up with real observations, we can reasonably conclude that they are correct.Meanwhile, I’ve shown that any economic or health benefits from a warming world would be far outweighed by the costs—ocean acidification, sea level rise, loss of cloud forests, increase in heat stroke deaths, and spread of several virulent diseases. books.google.com/books?id=FhfuV22JZ_sC&pg=PA30#v=onepage&q&f=false http://en.wikipedia.org... http://www.sciencedirect.com... http://www.skepticalscience.com... http://www.sciencedirect.com... http://www.skepticalscience.com... http://www.skepticalscience.com... http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov... https://www.geo.umass.edu... http://uanews.org... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com...