Aliens

From a mathematics standpoint it would be impossible to discern any pattern that would favor the probability of other life anywhere outside of earth without at least 1 other known instance to correlate to. It takes 2 points to make the beginnings of any trend, and as it stands there is only one. We seem to favor the idea that there could be life like ours by looking for like circumstances to our own planet, but that idea is a futile one when it comes down to the numbers. Out of the vanishingly small area we are able to sample (that being our immediate surrounding galaxy's and only those that happen to have been emitting light long enough to be intercepted by our planet in the also vanishingly small time frame we've been able to even record such signals) we have only noted a small percentage of planets with similar conditions to our own. An astronomy article from The Guardian (all links posted below) states there to currently be 2 Billion of them in the Milky Way. Out of a total planet count estimate coming in at at least 100 billion planets. Note also that this is stated as a minimum ... every billion thy are off by only decreases this earth like planet ratio. For this argument ill low ball it by several billion and just call it at 100 billion. We are down to a 1 in 50 billion chance now ... that a planet even has earthlike properties in this solar system. On top of that if you take into account how many earthlike planets that we are close enough to to know that they do not have life on them (and for the sake of the arguement we want to count ourselves which still seems flawed to me) that number is far far lower. On top of that, consider the fact that we have several instances even in our known time frame of life forms becoming extinct. To not count the fact that, of that <1 in 50 billion chance, an alien species might only exist for mere seconds and its planet never again render another life form seems very likely to me. The chance that they would ever achieve space flight is a daunting number. The chance that they would have the same drive to want to explore space at all could be equally as impossible. In the numbers game of being able to travel light years from our original planet, that numerator is still a 0 ... you can't even count us as an example for that probability to occur. I guess my base point in all this is that you can only make extremely (and i cant over stress how extremely) small probabilities if you only have one numerator and your capability to explore grows exponentially and has rendered nothing. Second that you cant make any sound prediction for a second, third, or fourth occurrence on record to relate them. To say we can expect to discover another life form or them to discover us is as unfounded as seeing but one wave and labeling it a tidal change that is sure to come around again and again. You only have one instance of it. And at that you have no idea what even created that instance in the first place. The wave from my example could have been started by anything. Whats to say given 1 data point that there will assuredly be another occurrence? If you had some better understanding of the phenomena you're observing that would allow you to associate some cycle to your instance (in the way you would find a tangent to something moving in an arc) you're golden. But with 1 instance we simply do not have that. If you wanted to compare maybe that our universe expands then collapses and re expands again to a point where an instance like us exists again ... by our numbers that would be an absolute certainty. But for 2 to exist at the same time is impossible to prove and can only be conceived through an overwhelmingly small chance through emperical probability that would have to use ourselves as a sample to even work. No open survey of people I know of that is in any way asking to be legitimate ever uses themselves as part of the sample. http://www.theguardian.com... https://web.archive.org...