1984 vs The Hunger Games

First, let's examine some important similarities that 1984 and The Hunger Games have in common.1) Ruling minority.In both Oceania and Panem, there is a pyramidal hierarchy. In Oceania, there is Big Brother and the Inner Party at the top, the Outer Party or middle class after that, and the Proles, which make up 85% of the population. In Panem there is President Snow and his top officials, followed by the residents of the Capitol, followed by the residents of the first few districts who live in moderately better conditions than the others, and finally the remaining districts.2) Diverted majority.In both Oceania, the Outer Party and the Proles are diverted by alcohol, pornography and the constant state of war and promise of victory. In Panem, the Districts are diverted by similar forms of entertainment from the Capitol, and the constant state of intra-national conflict provided by the Games.3) Perpetual conflict.Oceania is in a state of perpetual war with two other superpowers, Eurasia and Eastasia, who have similar ideologies and with whom Oceania has a tacit agreement to always keep the war going, both to divert the masses and to channel labor and resources. Panem again has the inter-District conflict of the Games.4) Thought control.Oceania changes history, social values, even language itself in order to control the thoughts of its subjects. Panem's form of thought control is more limited; it involves promoting certain social values, and a simple ruthlessness against anyone who opposes the Capitol. This is relatively little compared to Oceania, but it is false to say that the Districts are controlled only through hard labor.Pro makes a point here, by the way, that Orwell's book was designed to parallel Nazi Germany. This is not true. While parallels certainly exist between Oceania and Nazi Germany, Orwell was far more concerned with Stalinist Russia.[1]5) Limited micro-control.Oceania and Panem mostly do not interfere with the daily lives of most of their populations. Oceania only tries to "cure" the members of the Outer Party, which it views as the greatest threat to the ruling elite. Panem also focuses most of its corrective efforts on those who pose the largest threat -- specifically, the victors of the Games. When Haymitch wins the 50th Annual Games, for instance, he does so in a way that the government does not approve of, and as punishment they kill his loved ones, leaving him a hapless drunk with little will to live. This is what Pro means by "broken will," and as the character of Haymitch shows, it would have proved effective if not for a combination of circumstance (Katniss Everdeen going through the games) and external pressure (District 13 plotting the Capitol's overthrow).Now let us examine some important differences:1) Technology versus Sociology.The society as depicted in 1984 cannot possibly come about in the sense that the year 1984 has come and gone, but we can disregard this as a triviality, perhaps -- after all, the narrator admits uncertainty about the date. But what we cannot ignore are technological anachronisms. Most significantly, Orwell did not have the foresight to anticipate computers. All monitoring via two-way telescreens would have done by sheer human labor. Given the nuanced art of facial expressions and giveaways, the need for 24-hour surveillance and the limited attention span of humans, Isaac Asimov estimated that five people would be needed to constantly watch one person without the aid of computers.[2] And, of course, the watchers themselves would have to be watched, and so on. This makes the "slow massaging" of the common man that Pro refers to a remarkable feat of sheer sociology, rather than technology.Panem, meanwhile, lives in a futuristic society, although relatively few of its citizens benefit from the advanced technology. The Capitol uses technology for defense, to control the Games, and to keep the residents of the Districts physically in line. Yet this technology is almost never used for micro-managing the thoughts of those who pose the greatest threats; instead, brute force is commonly used. Sociology is not as far advanced in Panem as in Oceania, perhaps because in the history of Panem there has not been as much need for it.2) Types of distraction.In Oceania, when the telescreens are not displaying war news, it is all Party propaganda, all the time -- and, indeed, the former can be considered a subset of the latter. The entertainment in Panem is more subtle: it takes the common entertainment of today's "reality shows" to a new level, which can only be a logical extension of what is happening today. We know from experience that we are drawn to this form of entertainment, where alliances are made and broken, where morality is of necessity discarded, and where the only object is to be the last one standing.3) Other societies.The only reason Oceania is able to work is that there are two other superstates, Eurasia and Eastasia, with nearly identical ideologies. These three states have a tacit consent to fight one another, and to do so only in the "disputed zone," a place where no state holds territory and thus where no one will actually lose anything. Without this particular system, Oceania could not work.Panem, by contrast, stands alone. Other than District 13, with which it has only a tacit agreement to leave one another alone, there are no external factions in the world of Panem, no indication that any other nation or community even survived the apocalyptic events of the past.Having laid all of that out, here are a few reasons why I think a society like Panem is more likely to come about than a society like Oceania:A) While micro-sociological control might be more effective than macro-sociological, technological and/or militaristic control, the latter is more likely to come about than the former, simply because the infrastructure for the latter already exists. War may be more difficult and costly, as Pro points out, but we already know how to do it, whereas there is no evidence that we can turn a Winston Smith into a gin-soaked Big Brother lover. Put simply, there is no need to create an Oceania when we can create a Panem.B) The precedent of intra-competitional reality TV has already been set, and its ability to influence, is common knowledge. Panem relies heavily on it in at least one important aspect, while Oceania disregards it.C) While it is unlikely that any dystopian society in the future would stand alone, as does Panem, it is even more unlikely that such a society would be created at the same time as other such dystopian superstates, and would come to a tacit agreement of perpetual war in designated zones, which is a state of affairs upon which Oceania relies heavily. D) Much more likely than any of the above is that a dystopia would share a world with other, freer societies. Countries like China and North Korea have shown how an isolationist policy can maintain their own particular brands of dystopia, but even so, technology is making it more likely, as time goes on, that the people in these dystopias will be exposed to ideas from our own societies. Indeed, the "Arab Spring" last year was largely the result of the rise of social media. Oceania depends on the sort of informational isolation that the technology of 1948, the year in which the book was written, could provide. Such isolation is now, or will be in a few decades, impossible. Panem, meanwhile, having no outside factions with which to war other than District 13, has concentrated much more on internal, physical security. Such security did not prevent Panem's downfall against the rebellion of the Districts in the end, but imagine how much quicker the rebellion would have been if Panem had relied less on that and more on sociology.I contend, then, that Panem is more likely to arise than Oceania.[1] Asimov, I., "Review of 1984" (1980), available at http://www.newworker.org...[2] Ibid.