It's probable that the God exists

Pro has the assertive position, thus carries the Burden of Proof. As such, Con should win Arguments if the resolution is not affirmed. I'm using this round to submit my own case and will address Pro's, next round. This'll give Pro a round to bolster his case/address mine.Argument from Human NatureDriven to Seek ExplanationHumans are strongly pattern-seeking, as the recognition of consistency in the world enables us to make predictions and achieve repetitive success in activities, which was especially vital in primitive times (e.g. seasonal patterns) [1]. This is an intrinsic aspect of our cognitive abilities that allow us to successfully navigate the world, which forms a strong type of learning (Associative) which entails conditioning response(s) to stimuli [2]. We are so strongly biased that we routinely see patterns even when they aren't there (i.e. Apophenia) [3].The Need for Cognitive Closure describes the general desire for full closure on a subject while expressing aversion towards an ambiguous state [4]. A study suggested that a need for closure may foster closed belief systems because openness to conflicting information might threaten a state of closure. Hence, need for closure and dogmatism appear to be conceptually related [5]. This drive compels one to seek out explanations and we frequently respond to uncertainty by fabricating plausible explanations. What's more, we hold on to these invented explanations as having intrinsic value of their own, and we don't like to let them go [6].Forming an ExplanationWe have a deep-rooted mindset for cause-and-effect; when coupled with imagination and the strong need for an explanation, we end up accepting irrational answers to avoid having no answer at all. This commonly takes the form of superstition and results in the invention of causal explanations for observed events, which is Magical Thinking [7]. This is plainly obvious in the way people have their lucky hats and believe spilling the salt will being back luck, and is strongly attributable to religious beliefs, such as miracles.When it comes to evaluation, cognitive theory of decision making supports the hypothesis that there are two independent processes involved in decision making. The first process is based on gut instinct, while the second utilizes logical reasoning to make decisions. A study showed that people who relied more on their intuitive decision-making were more inclined to believe in religion, and those who tend to solve problems more analytically also tended to be religious disbelievers [8].Preservation of ExplanationAnother common phenomenon, Belief Perseverance, describes the human tendency to retain a belief despite strong evidence to the contrary or when the very basis of it is shown to be unreliable [9,10]. Further, the Primacy Effect reflects the tendency to consider explanations and evidence that are encountered first with greater merit [11]. This is plainly evident in the importance we place in first impressions, which is applicable because children are often subject to religious explanations first, which roots-in this bias.Humans are social beings and are innately biased towards that which will benefit social cohesiveness. This often entails the setting aside of individual reasoning and adopting the beliefs of the majority, which is a powerful phenomenon, Conformity [12]. A study found that about a third of the participants who were placed in this situation went along and conformed to the clearly incorrect majority, and only a quarter didn't conform [13]. This is given an obvious error, so it's quite reasonable to assume a much higher rate in terms of belief in God, where there really is no clear evidence to the contrary.Another potent factor is Authority, which greatly influences the beliefs and actions of individuals and is demonstrated in the famous Milgram Obedience Experiment [14,15]. This indicates that religious individuals who are perceived as authorities, be it parent or pastor, can largely shape the beliefs of others, even if those beliefs are erroneous.Cognitive BiasesConfirmation Bias is the most prevalent of biases, and reflects a tendency to seek out evidence to affirm currently held beliefs while disregarding evidence to the contrary [16]. This is often used to affirm the existence of God through observations like prayer, while ignoring studies which found that it doesn't work [17,18]. This bias causes one to automatically interpret scripture (especially prophetic) in the most favorable way, as well. Due to character limitation, I can't detail the array of relevant, powerful biases, but a few are: Backfire Effect, Bandwagon Effect, Just-World Bias, and Selective Perception [19].Human ReligiosityThe majority of humans believe in God. Countless religious of incredible variance have risen and fallen throughout history, and in primitive times, religion was indistinguishable from mythology [20], and religion emerged as a formalization of the mythology. The monotheistic notion of Christianity is said to have emerged from a polytheistic ancestry, so this religion has evolved much over time [21]. Currently, there are 19 major religious groups (270 subgroups), and about 34,000 denominations of Christianity, alone [22]. This attests to the great inaccuracy of our ability to perceive the truth of the matter if it is the case that a God actually exist, and the general lack of falsifiability renders attempts to discern who is correct futile. To presume the truth in the existence of some god based on the popularity would be an Appeal to Popularity fallacy [23], rendering such a conclusion invalid.Occam's RazorThis principle states that one shouldn't make more assumptions than the minimum needed. It underlies all scientific modelling and theory building. It admonishes us to choose from a set of otherwise equivalent models of a given phenomenon the simplest one [24].ConclusionSetting aside numerous other factors (e.g. desire for justice, hypersensitivity to observation, flawed memory/intuition) and given just of few of the strong tendencies towards misunderstanding the world around us, we should utilize Occam's Razor: it's much less presumptuous to hypothesize that the belief in God in the result of our own flawed and biased perceptions and reasoning rather than to add to it the strong assumption that some god actually exists, as well. Until there's direct evidence for a god's existence, it's an assumption. Therefore, the existence of God is improbable, and more likely a manifestation of our psychological nature.Sources[1] http://www.patterns.psychologytribe.com...[2] http://education.seattlepi.com...[3] https://www.psychologytoday.com...[4] http://psychologydictionary.org...[5] http://tinyurl.com...[6] http://www.newyorker.com... [7] https://www.psychologytoday.com...[8] https://www.psychologytoday.com...[9] http://psychologydictionary.org...[10] http://tinyurl.com...[11] http://psychologydictionary.org...[12] https://www.psychologytoday.com...[13] http://www.simplypsychology.org...[14] http://www.simplypsychology.org...[15] http://www.simplypsychology.org...[16] https://www.psychologytoday.com...[17] http://web.med.harvard.edu...[18] https://en.wikipedia.org...[19] https://en.wikipedia.org... [20] http://www.ancient.eu...[21] http://www.patheos.com...[22] http://www.religioustolerance.org...[23] http://tinyurl.com...[24] http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be...