Wet Grass Is Evidence Of Rain

Wet grass is not evidence of rain, because: 1. it can rain and the grass can remain dry 2. evidence of a category is not evidence of a particular item in the category 3. a touchdown is not evidence of a touchdown pass Rain is a meteorological event that requires falling moisture condensed from the atmosphere. Sure, one result of rain is that grass may be wet, but one result of rain is that grass may not be wet. It's called Virga. http://glossary.ametsoc.org... Virga is a meteorological event where condensed moisture falls from the atmosphere and evaporates before it hits the ground, thus never making the ground wet. So another result of rain is grass not covered in liquid...dry grass Would you say that dry grass is evidence of rain? No? Then you shouldn't think that wet grass is evidence of rain, simply because wet grass is one result of rain. As shown, one result of rain (virga) is dry grass, and we wouldn't ever say that dry grass is evidence of rain...would we? Even so, just because a result is a possibility of a particular cause, does not mean the result's occurrence is evidence of that particular cause. Evidence, per the definitions given, indicates a proposition to likely be true. Wet grass indicates a category of "wet grass causes" to likely be true. In "wet grass causes," one could find: 1. sprinklers 2. spilled water 3. urine 4. melted snow 5. pool water overflow 6. rain Wet, per the definitions given, means covered in any liquid, so the category for "wet grass causes" could be greatly expanded by oil, gasoline, various acids, salt water, etc... But let's stick with only these six possible "wet grass causes." If we take wet grass as evidence of the category "wet grass causes", we must say that this evidence, per the definition, makes this category likely true. Since wet grass is not evidence of rain, just a category including rain, all possible causes of wet grass are equally likely without further evidence. So let's divide 100% of this likelihood, derived from the evidence (wet grass), among all of the particular items in the category of "wet grass causes" 1. sprinkler 16.66% 2. spilled water 16.66% 3. urine 16.66% 4. melted snow 16.66% 5. pool water overflow 16.66% 6. rain 16.66% So you see, only naming 6 possible "wet grass causes," rain is then 16.6% likely as the cause. See how many more "wet grass causes" you can add to the category, and watch the likelihood of rain decrease. If evidence shows things to likely be true, then why does wet grass only yield less than a 16% chance of rain to be the cause of the wet grass? That's because wet grass is evidence of a category of causes, not evidence of a particular cause. Think of it this way. Is a touchdown evidence of a touchdown pass? No, because there are other causes of touchdowns besides a touchdown pass. A touchdown is evidence of a category of "touchdown causes" Sure, one result of a touchdown pass is in fact a touchdown, but just knowing that a touchdown was scored, indicates no particular type of touchdown. Touchdown Causes 1. touchdown pass 2. touchdown run 3. fumble recovery for a touchdown 4. kick return for a touchdown 5. punt return for a touchdown 6. interception for a touchdown So let's say there were a touchdown scored! Then the evidence of this touchdown points to... ONE of the six touchdown causes, each with a 16.6% chance of being likely the cause. None of them are individually likely at 16.6%, so a touchdown cannot be evidence of a particular cause if it only yields a 16.6% likelihood for each cause. I'll ask Pro: 1. Is dry grass evidence of rain? 2. Is evidence only for a category therefore a likelihood for a particular item in that category? 3. Is a touchdown evidence of a touchdown pass?