The USFG should substantially increase its military capability in Southeast Asia

1) The U.S. military must balance a growing threat from China The Obama Administration policy of a “pivot to Asia” continues the policies of the Clinton and Bush Administrations to redeploy forces from Europe to the East Asia. The collapse of the Soviet Union removed the threat of invasion of Europe, while at the same time the rise of China as a major power brought about the change. The emergence of North Korea as a nuclear power has added to the urgency. a) China is rapidly expanding its military China is spending huge sums expanding their military power. [1. http://tinyurl.com......] The Chinese military strategy has two objectives. “China has effectively split ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] into two groups – the countries with South China Sea claims that are engaged in disputes with China over the boundaries of territorial waters, and the landlocked countries that share land borders with China and in some cases are fast becoming Chinese client states.” [2. http://tinyurl.com......] b) China’s aggressive behavior threatens global stability- multiple flashpoints for conflict China has long wanted to take over democratic Taiwan. Taiwan defense officials warn, “China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan by 2020 as it gains military strength and develops technology to prevent allies such as the U.S. from coming to the island’s aid, the Taiwanese defense ministry said." [3. http://tinyurl.com......] China has claimed airspace rights to the disputed Senkaku Islands. [4. http://tinyurl.com......] To show U.S. and Japanese resolve, the U.S. is responding with joint carrier group exercises and a B-52 overflight. China seized Tibet after WWII, and it now maintains North Korea as an unstable client state. North Korea has evolved as major threat to South Korea and Japan. The North Koreans periodically shoot missiles over Japan. [5. http://tinyurl.com......] The Japanese have warned they may shoot down overflying missiles. "The North's Korean Central News Agency said that such a 'provocative' intervention would see Tokyo - an enormous conurbation of 30 million people - 'consumed in nuclear flames'. .. 'Japan is always in the cross-hairs of our revolutionary army and if Japan makes a slightest move, the spark of war will touch Japan first,' KCNA said in a commentary." [6.http://tinyurl.com......] Dictators like North Korea's commonly start military incursions to solidify the public behind their rule. (For example, Argentina invading the Falkland Islands.) As a nuclear power, North Korea uses extortion and is developing a long range missile capability to reach the U.S. [7. http://tinyurl.com......] China could reign in economically-dependent North Korea, but thus far the Chinese have refused to do so. c) U.S. interests require re-balancing power now If the US fails to provide a convincing deterrent to China and North Korea, it could set off a nuclear arms race in Southeast Asia. It is in the US interest to minimize the spread of nuclear weapons, because the more nuclear powers in the world the greater the chance of a country's leader indulging in adventurism under the belief that all attack is deterred. The Obama Administration “pivot to Asia” was to begin with the establishment of a base with 2500 marines in northern Australia. Preoccupation with the Middle East, the military sequester, and the President's need to attend to the budget crisis has stalled action so far. China has used the delay to aggressively increase its influence. [9.http://tinyurl.com......] Nations in the region want the balance of power maintained between the U.S. and china so that they can develop peaceful and open trade relations with both sides. The U.S. similarly benefits from free trade with countries of the region. The re balancing of U.S. military power has substantial bipartisan support. [8. http://tinyurl.com......] It should begin immediately. 2) Non-state Security: Piracy and Terrorism a) Piracy is on the rise in Asian shipping routes, most notably in the Strait of Malacca. Historically, Southeast Asia has been a breeding ground for terrorist cells such as Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah, which have threatened attacks on oil tankers [10]. In November 2013, the second hijacking of an oil tanker in the period of one month dramatically drew attention to the piracy problem in Southeast Asia [13]. Even as local authorities work to secure certain areas, piracy shifts to area of lower security presence. [14] b) The Strait of Malacca is a vital international shipping lane, carrying 40% of global shipping. The strait is crucial to Asia’s energy supply- up to 80% of China’s and 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the strait. The strait is also a key naval lane for U.S. sea power. [10] Piracy imposes a high cost on international trade due to rerouting and insurance premiums- a conservative estimate puts the cost at $12 billion [15]. A terrorist attack could have even larger economic impacts by inflating the cost of international security measures and disrupting global trade in the immediate aftermath of an attack. c) Naval power is key to deterring and stopping in-progress piracy. Increased presence of naval power has proven effective in fighting piracy around the horn of Africa. [11] d) The U.S. is uniquely situated to manage international cooperation in responding to the threat of non-state actors. Small regional actors have proved unable to effectively coordinate due to territorial disputes and fears of power imbalance [10]. China is perceived as a bully by southeastern Asia and so lacks the diplomatic credibility to manage multinational security initiatives [12]. [10] http://blogs.reuters.com... [11] http://www.icc-ccs.org... [12] http://thediplomat.com... [13] http://www.themalaymailonline.com... [14] http://www.forbes.com... [15] http://www.voanews.com... 3) Disaster Response a) U.S. military is key to international disaster response and aid during crisis. By their very nature, natural disasters disrupt local infrastructure for rapid response to major crises. Additionally, many countries in Southeast Asia lack the means and expertise to coordinate efficient disaster response programs. The U.S. military proved indispensable in responding to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines- transporting hundreds of tons of supplies, moving thousands of aid workers, and airlifting thousands to safety. [16] Rapid disaster response also prevents the spread of infectious disease and collapse of civil order. [16] http://thehill.com... b) U.S. Disaster Response capabilities have proven reliable so far but are threatened by sequestration and budget cuts. [17] A strong U.S. presence in Southeast Asia ensures U.S. response capability does not deteriorate. [17] http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com... c) Disaster Response boosts U.S. Soft Power and draws countries to closer military partnerships with the U.S. The Response to Haiyan has underscored the need for closer ties between theU.S. and Philippines [18]. Historically disaster response has helped build U.S. partnerships, as it did after the 2010 Pakistan earthquake [16]. [18] http://www.voanews.com... d) Regional power in Southeast Asia have proven unable or unwilling to take up the challenges of disaster response. China sent no troops and little aid in response to Haiyan and has shown a similar lack of response in the past [16].