Opponent picks topic.

==c1: Size of the Universe== The size of the universe is billions (if not infinite) of light years across. Scientist estimates suggest that there are about 1e+12 galaxies in the observable universe alone. Per each galaxy, there are 1e+11.5 stars. This means the amount of stars in the universe are estimated be about 1e+22 to 1e+24, which is out of our normal number zone. Now, we must look at which stars have Earth-like planets. An official Observatory station puts the amount of stars with an earth-sized planet in the life zone at about 20%.That article is absurdly wrong. Estimates range from 1 - 3%. Some do go up to 15%, but 20% is a VERY HIGH estimate.http://news.softpedia.com...http://www.dailygalaxy.com... This means about 2e+23 planets are in the habitable zone of life in the universe. Take Kepler 22, for example [3]. It is in a spot where it is not too hot nor too cold for life to exist and weather can happen. If there is 2e+23 planets in the KNOWN universe alone that can contain life, there must be higher than a 90% chance that life has existed or is existing. If my opponent states that it has to be "Homo Sapien," then there is still a higher than 90% chance that an intelligent bipedal creature has, at one point, existed. In fact, we recently found a new planet that may have a "100% chance of life:" "The chances for life on this planet are 100 percent," Steven Vogt, a UC professor of astronomy and astrophysics says. "I have almost no doubt about it." ==c2: Adding the stats==Now, let's say that out of the 2e+23 planets that can contain life, 0.5% of it evolves. How can you simply assume 0.5% evolves? For it to evolve, there needs to be a spark such as a plant. Something can not come from nothing. For example, would a planet which can SUSTAIN live have DEFINITELY 0.5% chance of evolving life? The percentage could be as small as 0%. 0.000000000000001% is a better estimate.Note this is the lowest estimate (estimates range from just above 0% to 100%.) Now, we have 1e+22 planets with evolving life on it. Now, if just 0.000001% of this life turns out to be intelligent, we have about 1e+15 planets with intelligent life. If just 0.0000000001% of this life can communicate, we have about 10,000 planets with communicating life. Note this is one of the lowest possible scenarios.With the lowest possible scenarios still coming out as over 90% chance of intelligent, communicating life existing, I feel as if I have met my BoP. The math I used is shown below:1e+24 planets in universe(1e+24)(.20) (20% of planets similar to Earth and can contain life)= 2e+23.(2e+23)(0.05) (0.5% of life evolves)= 1e+22.(1e+22)(0.0000001) (the percent chance that life turns out to be intelligent) = 1e+15.(1e+15)(0.00000000001) (the percent chance that this life will communicate) = 10,000.Thus, we end up with 10,000 planets with species that are smart and have the ability to communicate.Adding my updated stats together, there is less than 0.9 planets.ARGUMENTS All arguments for extraterrestrial life existing is very vague. There is nearly no evidence to support the claim, especially that more than 90% chance of extraterrestrial life existing. So what do we know? We only know roughly how many stars exist. We cannot be close to certain how many can sustain life and the chance of communicating and intelligent life existing. The only main piece of information we have is Earth, which isn't even sufficient evidence. Clearer fossil data is clearly needed. Would you bet $1000000000 that there is a 90% chance of extraterrestrial life existing? Of course not, sufficient evidence is not available. On the other hand if you would be much safer if you bet $1000000000 that extraterrestrial life will not exist, given the 10%, at most 20% loss chance. [1][1] http://physicsworld.com...;Thank you.