That An Ebola Epidemic in the U.S Is very Unlikely.

If it is OK with my opponent, I request to change the BoP of me to <50%, and his to >50%. Read Zaradi's comment for explanation. If he wants, we can refute in R4 also. Forward onto the debate.Overview Ebola is a disease that kills up to 90% of those infected. There are five strains, and the one in the West Africa is the Zaire Strain. The symptoms of Ebola include headache, vomiting, diarrhea, and bleeding. However, this disease will not spread in America.P1. Disease SpreadIa. It is widely known, and proven, that Ebola only spreads through bodily fluids of an infected person who is already showing symptoms [1]. That significantly increases the disease efficiency in poor and illiterate places, such as Africa, where people are not properly warned about how Ebola spreads. Ebola is spreading in Africa quickly because many Africans perform burial rituals, where other members of the family kiss and hug the corpse, spreading the disease. People who can not read do not know not to touch or help a sick person, which means bodily fluids infect the person handling the victim [2]. Ib. America is a much more literate and richer country, meaning people are aware as to how Ebola spreads and not to touch an infected person. Furthermore, American people are much more likely to isolate themselves if he/she thinks that they have Ebola, as he/she will know the symptoms of Ebola and if they were or are at risk of Ebola. Many Africans, however, do not know. Thus, it is very logical to believe that the U.S will not suffer any higher than 3 million people infected. Ic. The conclusion here is that America is a much more developed country, and Ebola is not known to thrive in countries like ours. We have guidelines set, many Americans are aware of Ebola, and we know when and how to seek medical help. Our doctors are far more advanced, and we have a greater amount of hospitals with better equipment than Africa does.P2. We Have Guidelines in PlaceIIa. My second point is that we have many guidelines set in case Ebola should start spreading in the U.S. One is that we can easily trace contacts [3] to quickly isolate people who are at risk of Ebola. By isolating people who are at risk for Ebola, we significantly lower the risk of people catching Ebola. We have already put this plan into action in the U.S, and so far it is a success, as we have quarantined 4 people and are watching 100 others, successfully eliminating them from spreading the disease [4] (if they have it.) Thus far, there have been no new cases reported.IIb. The CDC has been issuing guidelines for hospitals, aircraft, and medical personnel to try and stop any possible spread of the virus [5]. We have trained many people to respond and quickly stop any given Ebola outbreak, without infecting themselves. This expands my point that awareness is higher in America then in Africa by a wide margin. For an example, I will use the Dallas case. From Sept. 28th on, every guideline was carefully followed. Thomas Eric Duncan was quickly isolated from the other hospital patients, while the CDC and others tracked down 100 people who Duncan had been in contact with [6]. The 100 people who were exposed are having their temperatures taken twice a day, and are ordered to stay home. This means, unless there is a huge error, Ebola in the U.S is not going to happen.IIc. The CDC is also limiting air travel to and from the countries most heavily affected [7]. Though Ebola has only infected <10,000 people, we are already considering banning air travel to and from Liberia. We are also increasing screening at U.S airports to decrease the chance of Ebola coming to another country. P3. By ExampleIIIa. Nigeria stopped it. When a person collapsed at an airport in Nigeria, an Ebola "epidemic" began... except Nigeria stopped it and it only infected 20 people [8]. The outbreak in Nigeria is considered to be over. Nigeria is a far less developed country then America, with less healthcare and not as organized society [9]. If they could stop the outbreak at just 12 people, it is logical to think that the U.S could stop it at under 3 million. In fact, I'd go as far as to say it is almost a certainty that the U.S would stop the outbreak in like fashion before in infects 3 million people.IIIb. What's more important is that U.S now has an example and knows how to stop it, through Nigeria. As we have more healthcare clinics, better materials, and more doctors, we should be able to do what Nigeria did, either more than once and/or better. The two areas affected by Ebola (Lagos and Rivers) were quickly cleaned up by the governors of the respected areas, which we do have (governor for every state). Nigeria sets an example for us to work in terms of mostly governors, and example we can easily follow.P4. It's not like other diseasesIVa. Ebola is not like other diseases. It can only spread through bodily fluids of an infected patient [1] and even then, the patient must be exhibiting symptoms. Ebola is not like the Spanish Flu, the closest thing to a "pandemic" the post industrial era has ever seen. The Spanish Flu is transmissible via air before a patient shows symptoms [10] as it attached itself into the respiratory syndrome. This means it spread out of control as a person did not know how they got infected and the government could not trace where and who is at risk, meaning the virus was free to roam the streets. Even then, it did not wipe out the world.IVb. Smallpox is like Ebola (kind of) except that Smallpox is transmissible by coughing [11]. Though the people in the past did not have the medical wiseness and research we have today, we were still able to eradicate it without it destroying the U.S. Like the Spanish Flu, Smallpox was not traceable and people could not be knowingly and easily quarantined like they can with Ebola.IVc. There's a similarity in all of the "pandemic" diseases: they are all spread by air and can not easily be traced like Ebola can. You will say that Ebola can mutate. However, the chance is "very low." I have shown that Ebola really would need to be an airborne virus to cause an epidemic, but the chances are very low (my BoP exactly) the Ebola will become airborne [12]. Thus, it won't spread, as I have shown in the four points above."Very, very rarely does it completely change the way it's transmitted," Fauci said. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________That will conclude my argument! I wish my opponent luck in his argument. I also urge him to respond to my requested changes to the debate format. Sources are as followed:[1] http://news.yahoo.com...[2] http://allafrica.com...[3] http://www.shreveporttimes.com...[4] http://www.usatoday.com...[5] http://www.cdc.gov...[6] http://www.cnn.com...[7] http://wwwnc.cdc.gov...[8] http://tribune.com.ng...[9] http://www.who.int...[10] http://www.sciencedaily.com...[11] http://healthvermont.gov...[12] http://www.huffingtonpost.com...