Resolved: The Iranian Nuclear Deal is a "mistake."

As per say the rules, I will focus on rebuttals this round. R1: Iranian supports international terrorism Sanctions Relief and Unfreezing Iranian Assets The framework does lift a multitude of sanctions, and it does unfreeze many overseas Iranian assets foreign financial systems. However, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has said that “Iran will receive approximately $55 billion in sanctions relief once the nuclear deal is implemented” [1]. The governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Valiollah Seif, was more conservative when he argued, “Though the total amount of foreign reserves is $107 billion, only $26 billion will be usable” [2]. The false estimates fail to account that Iran has to pay for international and domestic loans. For instance, $22 billion in Iranian funds are locked in China, and it “will stay in Chinese savings accounts until the loan and financing facilities are repaid.” Furthermore, Iran’s demand for domestic investment is northward of $500 billion, which far exceeds the windfall from the deal [1] [2]. Would Iran fund Terrorist Proxies? Iran has the possibility of using its windfall on opposition terrorist groups. Will Iran though? Consider the fact that Syria’s Assad government is slowly crumbling, as shown by its territorial losses below [4]. Iran could use its wealth to support Bashar al-Assad, but it would be “throwing their money away” when Iran desperately needs it. Here are the basic possibilities for Iran’s government Invest in oil and gas production (requires ~$100 billion) Invest in domestic infrastructure and production (~$500 billion) [1] Cutting the budget deficit (~$19 billion) [7] Funding terrorist proxies in Syria, Lebanon Western diplomats have argued that Iran will likely use its windfall to “create jobs and revive the country’s dilapidated oil and gas fields” [5]. After all, Iran’s government is highly pressured to improve the economy, and Iran is even facing shortages for oil and gas. The CIA has reaffirmed this, saying “Iran is unlikely to spend most of its post-sanctions funds on militants” [6]. Also promising, Iran’s President Rouhani has “instructed officials to use [funds] for infrastructure projects and to promote domestic industries” [2]. Bottom Line Iran could use its windfall to fund militant groups. But given Iran’s appalling economic health and political instability, it seems much more likely that Iran will use its windfall to improve the lives of its own citizens. R2: Iran’s Threat to the U.S. A Threat to the U.S. Homeland? Israeli Prime Minister is simply trying to stoke people’s fears about Iran. He is mistaken. As Defense Analyst Ben Moores has said: “The Iranian military capability is very weak. They have no real air force. Their navy is relatively weak… the ballistic missile program is ‘inflated’ ” [9]. Furthermore, Iran’s military is seriously outranked compared to our regional partners. Saudi Arabia’s weapon procurement exceeded Iran’s by over a factor of 14 just last year [9]. This isn’t even counting Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, and other nations that are aligned with us. Furthermore, the following graphic illustrates what restrictions stay in place under the Iran deal. And if Iran were to ever threaten our national security, they would be wiped off the map. Here is Iran compared to U.S. military bases in the region. “The nuclear deal makes the U.S. have to protect Iran if it gets attacked by Israel” I couldn’t find any evidence of this. The best I found was that if Israel attacks Iran, the U.S. would probably go to the U.N. to stop the attacks through a binding resolution [10]. R3: Iran is close to getting the bomb “Iran is now able to inspect their own facilities” This AP claim was based on a draft of the agreement. That is why, hours later, AP “substantially altered” the information. [12] Iran can collect some information at the Parchin site. However, “IAEA staff will monitor Iranian personnel as they inspect the Parchin nuclear site.” [11] The Parchin facility has been dormant for 13 years, is disabled, and according to the United Nations, has “no nuclear production on the site” [12]. If the Iranians were to utilize any uranium, centrifuges, conversion technology, or uranium processing, any and all of these signs would alarm the IAEA which is continually monitoring these and other signals. “Iran already has a large amount of enrichment capability” Pro is right that Iran has plenty of enriched uranium and advanced technology. This reality simply highlights the importance of this treaty. This treaty will place new restrictions on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and it will mandate that Iran will export the vast majority of its nuclear stockpile, centrifuges, and nuclear infrastructure to the IAEA. This includes all uranium that is enriched beyond 3.67%. “They could build a new nuclear facility” Iran could build a new nuclear facility, if it managed to take the following steps Obtain uranium (through the two mines) Acquire advanced conversion technology Acquire uranium enrichment technology Build nuclear reactors However, the IAEA continuously monitors all these aspects of the deal. This is why if Iran cheats, “the likelihood of getting caught is near 100 percent” according to nonproliferation expert Aaron Stein [13]. As previously mentioned, the IAEA must inspect and approve any imports that could have any possibility of becoming components of Iran’s nuclear program (products with ‘possible military dimensions’ or PMD). Also, building a new facility would violate the treaty and the snapback provision would kick into play [3]. “Iran won’t keep its promise… Iran is free to do what they please” If Iran violates a part of this treaty, the dispute goes through the dispute resolution process. One of the final steps of the dispute resolution process is when the issue goes to the U.N. Security Council. Here is the thing. If the issue goes to the U.N. Security Council… which it will if it isn’t resolved earlier… the issue will have to be resolved through a binding resolution. If China or Russia do anything to prevent a (U.S.) resolution (i.e. nothing happens), all sanctions automatically come back into force after a month [16]. Thus Iran would be back where it started. All the sanctions will still be in effect, but it will have given up 97% of its nuclear stockpile, 2/3rds of its centrifuges, and for what? “Iran could enrich up only under 20%, then it was you could enrich to 20% for research purposes.” This claim simply isn’t true! The State Department has said that the highest level of uranium enrichment is 3.67% [14]. R4: Cheap Oil is beneficial for the U.S. The influx of cheaper crude oil has translated to lower costs for U.S. consumers. On an annual basis, it will increase the real income of the average American household by approximately 3% [15]. This “oil dividend” has benefited the American economy. Allowing Iran to join the international economy will provide cheaper oil. This will benefit U.S. consumers and the economy at large. Firms will have lower input costs. Only oil producers will suffer, but this is simply the consequence of supply and demand readjusting to prices. R5: A “Middle Ground” Between Israel and Iran Israel has nuclear weapons [8], and Iran was willing to take any cost to develop their own. No degree of international isolation, no bleeding from its economy, no threat to its survival would convince it otherwise. Even the modest development on Iran’s side irritated Israel, but the pact reaches a middle ground of sorts. Iran is allowed to have peaceful nuclear energy, while Israel retains its nuclear arsenal. In the absence of this pact, Iran would have nuclear weapons and this could provoke disastrous consequences for region. R6: Renegotiating the Deal Pro says that we can simply renegotiate the deal. This isn’t feasible. As the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has said, “The Iran nuclear deal has been championed by the president of the United States, every one of America’s European friends and countless other countries around the world. If Congress rejects the deal… we will lose political capital.” The deal has been agreed to by the United Kingdom, Russia, China, France, and multiple other nations. We can’t simply fail the deal and start over. Iran is very close to obtaining a nuclear weapon, and if we fail the agreement, we will be handing it to them. [1] (http://tinyurl.com...) [2] (http://tinyurl.com...) [3] (http://tinyurl.com...) [4] (http://tinyurl.com...) [5] (http://tinyurl.com...) [6] (http://tinyurl.com...) [7] The World Factbook. Version 7.02. Electronic Application. 2014. [8] (http://tinyurl.com...) [9] (http://tinyurl.com...) [10] (http://tinyurl.com...) [11] (http://tinyurl.com...) [12] (http://tinyurl.com...) [13] (http://tinyurl.com...) [14] (http://tinyurl.com...) [15] (http://tinyurl.com...) [16] (http://tinyurl.com...) [17] (http://tinyurl.com...)