Death Penalty

Thanks for accepting King.Anyone who is aware of my presence on this site is likely to have seen my numerous debates on the Death Penalty. In all of them before now, I have been Con. Some nagging doubts lead me to do further research. After having done so, I could no longer support the Death Penalty. Without further ado, why I changed my mind:PRICEOne of my big talking points has always been the amount of money it costs to pursue the Death Penalty compared to the costs of pursuing life without parole. I always used statistics from the state of California, without considering the big picture. In California, executions are quite expensive, $184M more (than life without parole) per executed prisoner[1]. So I always used that one without considering that the price for California may be abnormal. Well it turns out that the Death Penalty is generally a lot cheaper than that. Some examples:Kansas. A research study of prices for capital punishment in the state of Kansas revealed some pretty small numbers. The cost of having a Death Penalty trial is a little under $.5M, and the cost of death row housing is roughly $50,000[2]. I admit that these prices are higher than life without parole circumstances, but this is to put things in perspective when you look at the California statistic. Maryland. In Maryland, Death Penalty cases cost $3M[2]. The study focused on 162 Death Penalty cases, and the study concludes that they amounted to an extra $186M spent[2]. Again, this is about perspective. Look at California. It takes one of their cases to almost equal 162 of Maryland's cases. Nevada, Clark County. Here the extra price is very low. There are 80 Death Penalty cases pending there, and they are estimated to cost $15M total. Clark County would have to execute slews of people before they ever racked up the expense that California does with one person.Indiana. Here the median Death Penalty case costs $.45M[2]. Far less than that of California.North Carolina. "The most comprehensive death penalty study in the country found that the death penalty costs North Carolina $2.16 million more per execution than the a non-death penalty murder case with a sentence of life imprisonment ."[2]I hope I have made my point. The monstrous numbers we see in California are not truly representative of the average Death Penalty cost. As these states have shown, you can administer the Death Penalty without creating a black hole for money. As I will show next, this price is worth it, as it has the ability to save lives. DETERRENCEIn all of my previous debates, I have claimed that there is no existing data that the Death Penalty prevents further death. I have also used some statistics to claim that the Death Penalty actually incurs more crime. I will now refute both of those ideas.First I will present my affirming statistic, and then I will refute the negating statistic.A 26 year study has revealed that for every year someone is executed, there are 74 less murders the following year[3]. If you're saying it could be a coincidence, here's my answer:"It is possible that this correlated relationship could be mere coincidence, so we did a regression analysis on the 26-year relationship. The association was significant at the .00005 level, which meant the odds against the pattern being simply a random happening are about 18,000 to one."[3]The 18,000 to 1 statistic is very important. It shows that this statistic is extremely reliable, and has shown itself to repeat constantly over the 26 years the study was done. So what statistic rises up in opposition of this? A statistic that claims that states with the Death Penalty have on average, a higher murder rate than states without[4]. While I do not deny this fact, I deny the idea that there is a direct correlation here that supports Con. Why?Consistency. First, let's examine the trends for my affirming statistic and this statistic. In the affirming stat, there is a .00005 association in the regression analysis. What does analysis regression mean? Basically it just means, 'how close the dots were to the line that represents the average'. (Note: just example of analysis regression, not actually related to affirming statistic)So in this study, all those dots were extremely close to 74 in every incidence of execution, hence the long odds that this could be mere coincidence. Now, look at the statistic that attempts to negate deterrence. We can see that in 1991, there was only a 7% difference between murder rates. Then look at its highest point, 46%, in 2005. Finally, examine the most recent available year, 2012, 18% difference. The reason I bring your attention to this is because we need to decide which study we can trust more. Do you want a study that has barely wavered in its findings over 26 years, or one that has seen a 39% difference in its findings in less time? Which is more likely to be a coincidence? Variables. Further, when you examine overall crime rates in different states, you can see they are affected by a lot more variables than just whether or not there is a Death Penalty in place. 3 of the 4 states with the lowest homicide rate in America do not implement the Death Penalty[5]. Now of course supporters of banning the Death Penalty would jump at this correlative statistic and say that clearly they are more peaceful without a Death Penalty. However, there are several variables one should consider. First, all four of those states (and this is gonna sound bad but bare with me) have very low black populations. The highest being 4%[6]. Why is that significant? Because violent crimes are 7x more likely to be committed by a black person than a white person, and areas with higher levels of black people and Hispanic people have higher violent crime rates[7][8]. So race is one thing to consider when you look at overall state murder rates. Second, the weather. It has been well established that the hotter it is, the more crime there will be[9]. And, we can see moderate correlation between hot states, high murder rate states, and Death Penalty states. Note that down in the South, where it is hotter, we can see more dark red, and even one (that'd be Louisiana) brown. Now I know weather and race are just two of many variables that factor into occurrences of murder. The point I'm making here is that a state's murder rate is based off of very large variables, and to assume that having a Death Penalty somehow should create or fix problems with murder rates is silly. This statistic provides very weak correlation, furthering the thought that we should side with my affirming statistic. Uniformity. One thing to note is that the affirming statistic is true almost 100% of the time, this being evidence by the .00005 association. But with the negating statistic, there are many states that violate their insinuation that non-Death Penalty states are safer places. I encourage you to follow the link and see for yourself, but just for example, Michigan has the fourth highest murder rate in the US, yet they're not a Death Penalty state[5]. The state with the lower murder rate, New Hampshire, actually allows the Death Penalty[5]. If you put these states and their statistics on a line of regression, I highly doubt you'd get a number like .00005. CONCLUSIONI have shown that the $184M price the opposition often shows next to the Death Penalty is ultimately misleading and unrepresentative of the normal costs of the Death Penalty. The costs are usually far less expensive than those seen in California. I hope I have shown all of you that the affirming statistic is far more reliable than the negating statistic. The affirming statistic represents a very 'cause-effect' relationship between executions and less murders, with a deviation from the average 74 fewer murders per execution of only .0005%. The statistic that attempts to negate Death Penalty deterrence is a very correlative, most likely coincidental statistic. The conclusions drawn from this stat by the opposition is drastically reduced in validity thanks to the lack of consistency in the trend itself, the many variables that can make a state more dangerous than another without the help of the Death Penalty, and the lack of uniformity in results on a state by state basis. Looking at the cost and the deterrent capabilities, I hope the voters can see that the extra money is worth it, because lives will be saved. Thank you for reading.Sources:[1] http://www.deathpenalty.org...[2] http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org...[3] http://deathpenalty.procon.org...[4] http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org...[5] http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org...[6] http://www.us-places.com...[7] http://www.amren.com...[8] http://colorofcrime.com...[9] http://www.beartoothnbc.com...