## On**London**   2010

Author:
John Hollis GLA Intelligence Unit City Hall Queen's Walk More London SE1 2AA London intelligence@london.gov.uk 020 7983 4658 Follow us on Twitter at: http://www. twitter.com/GLAIntelligence This report is available on the London Datastore at: http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/applications/ focus-london-population-and-migration Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database rights 2010. ISSN 1479-7879

## Populationand**Migration** Introduction

London is the United Kingdom's only city 
region. Its population of 7.75 million is 12.5 
per cent of the UK population living on just 
0.6 per cent of the land area. The average 
population density is over 4,900 persons per 
square kilometre, this is ten times that of the 
second most densely populated region, the 
North West. London is second to the South East 
in terms of the size of its population, which 
is larger than that of Scotland and Northern 
Ireland combined (Table 1).
Between 2001 and 2009 London's population 
grew by over 430 thousand, more than any 
other region, accounting for over 16 per cent of 
the UK increase. Only the East and East Midlands 
regions grew more rapidly than London's 5.9 
per cent over the eight years (Table 2).

## Populationand**Migration** Table 1: Mid-Year Population Estimates, Table 2: Increase In Mid-Year Population 2009

|                        |           | 	        |        Estimates, 2001-2009   |
|------------------------|-----------|--------|-------------------------------|
| Number                 | %         | Number | %                             |
| South East             | 8,435,700 | 13.7   |                               |
| London                 | 431,200   | 5.9    |                               |
| London                 | 7,753,600 | 12.5   |                               |
| South East             | 412,300   | 5.1    |                               |
| North West             | 6,897,900 | 11.2   | East                          |
| East                   | 5,766,600 | 9.3    | South West                    |
| West Midlands          | 5,431,100 | 8.8    | Yorkshire & the Humber        |
| Yorkshire & the Humber | 5,258,100 | 8.5    | East Midlands                 |
| South West             | 5,231,200 | 8.5    | West Midlands                 |
| Scotland               | 5,194,000 | 8.4    | Scotland                      |
| East Midlands          | 4,451,200 | 7.2    | North West                    |
| Wales                  | 2,999,300 | 4.9    | Northern Ireland              |
| North East             | 2,584,300 | 4.2    | Wales                         |
| Northern Ireland       | 1,788,900 | 2.9    | North East                    |

            Source: Office for National Statistics, mid-year estimates.

## Executive Summary

>	
The mid-2009 estimate of London's population showed that there were 	
	
7,753,600 residents accounting for 12.5% of total UK population.
>	
Between 2001 and 2009 London's population increased by 431,200 people 	
	
accounting for over 16% of the UK increase.
>	
Natural change accounted for 510,000 new Londoners over the 2001-2009 	
	
period.
>	
Between 2001-2009 London attracted 1,380,000 migrants from Overseas
	
and 1,460,000 from the rest of the UK. Of those leaving London 
	
2,100,000 went to the rest of the UK and only 820,000 went Overseas.
 
>	
The net inflow from Overseas was 560,000 thousand and the net loss to the 
	
rest of the UK was 640,000.
>	
In 2008-09 natural change led to 78,000 more Londoners compared to only
	
8,000 due to migration.
>	
In 2008 55% of births in London were to women born outside the UK.
>	
Four of the top five inter-regional flows in the UK are to or from

## Populationand**Migration**

	
London.
>	
In 2001-02 of all inter-regional flows London only had a net inflow from the
	
North East. In 2008-09 London had net gains from all regions except for East, 
	
South East and South West. 
>	
The only age group with a net inflow to London from the rest of the UK is the
	
20-29 age group.
>	
Since 2001 London has seen its share of total immigration to the UK fall from 
	
around 37 to 28 per cent.
>	
The number of immigrants coming to the UK from the Twelve EU Accession
	
countries and obtaining a National Insurance Number increased from 	 	
	
11,300 in 2002/03 to	74,400 in 2008/09. In the same time span the
	
number of asylum seekers fell from 37,700 to 8,900.
>	
Between 2011 and 2031 London's population is projected to increase by 	
	
13% and reach 8,828,800 people. 
4

## Population Age Structure

Since  2001 the growth in London's population has been concentrated in two age ranges; 0-6 and 37-52 (Chart 1). There has been a significant rise in the annual number of births since 2001 that accounts for the increase amongst the very young. The increase in the older range is mainly an artefact of the ageing of the large number of residents aged 29-44 in 2001, many of whom had been part of the large British birth cohorts of the 1960s. There has been a noticeable decline in the number of children aged seven to 16, also reflecting past trends in births and the tendency for families with younger children to move away from London. The young age structure of London with a very noticeable peak of population around the late 20s and early 30s is in marked contrast to the age structure of the UK as a whole. 

There are relatively few people in the UK at age 32 - 
reflecting the lowest recent birth numbers recorded in 1977 - yet this is one of the largest cohorts resident in London (Chart 2, p.6). Beyond age 45 London has relatively fewer residents at all ages, particularly so from the late 50s. The average age of a Londoner is 37 compared with 40 for the UK as a whole. There is an even larger difference comparing median ages (that is the age where half the population is older and half younger) with London at 34 and the UK at 39.

Half of Londoners are 34 or younger while the equivalent age for the United Kingdom is 39.

London's age structure is a legacy of the migration 
changes that have occurred over the last few decades 
with young migrants arriving in the capital while more 
mature workers with families and persons around 
retirement age leave.  The age structure also influences 
the annual numbers of events and the statistical
measures of 
fertility and 
mortality. 
This is 
discussed 
in later 
sections. 

The mid-2009 populations of the London boroughs are 
shown with broad age groupings in the Annex (Table 16, 
p.25). Newham had proportionally nearly twice the child 
population of Westminster while Havering had more than 
twice the retirement age population of Tower Hamlets. 
The main working ages as a whole were distributed 
more evenly ranging from Havering with just over 60 per 
cent to Westminster with over 74 per cent. However the 
age structures within this broad grouping also showed 
distinct borough characteristics with a younger profile 
in inner London boroughs.

## Components Of Change

Natural change accounted for an increase of 510,000 in London's population over the 
2001-2009 period.

When separating out the main components of 
London's recent population increase, in purely numerical 
terms, it is natural change (births 
less deaths) that has had the 
major influence (Chart 3, p.7). 
Not only has natural change 
accounted for a 510 thousand 
increase over the eight years, it 
has increased its contribution 
year-on-year from 47 thousand 
in 2001-02 to 78 thousand in 
2008-09. This change is a combination of a 23 thousand 
(22 per cent) increase in births and a reduction of eight 
thousand deaths. In recent years London has contributed 
a substantial share of natural change in the UK. In 
2008-09 this was 36 per cent, compared with its 12.5 
per cent share of the UK population. London's share has 
declined in recent years as the numbers of births have 
increased in all parts of the UK.

In the last eight years London's overall net migration has been a loss of over 80 thousand, but this single statistic not only obscures the huge volumes of inflows and outflows 

but also the balance between 
migrants within the UK and 
those to and from Overseas. In 
this period the average annual 
inflow to London has been 356 
thousand, with 366 thousand 
persons leaving. This means 
that on average 4.7 per cent of 

London's residents lived elsewhere a year earlier.
Between 2001 and 2009 London attracted 1.38 million 
migrants from Overseas and 1.46 million from the rest of 
the UK. Of those leaving London 2.10 million went to the 
rest of the UK and only 820 thousand went Overseas. The 
net inflow from Overseas was 560 thousand and the net 
loss to the rest of the UK was 640 thousand. 

In the last two years the inflow from Overseas has 
fallen to the lowest levels in the decade while the, 
more volatile, outflow has increased. In 2008-09 the 
net international inflow was less than half of its level in 
2001-02. The net loss from London to the rest of the UK 
was also at a recent low level in 2008-09 as a result of a 
sharp drop in the outflow from London and the inflow 
reaching record levels. The annual net loss is at less than 
a third of its level in 2002-04 and is less than half of the 
level in 2007-08. The recent changes in migration flows 
are discussed in more detail on page 10.
All boroughs had more births than deaths in 2008-
09 and in the majority natural change had an higher 
absolute impact on overall population change than net 
migration (Table 3, p.8). The eight exceptions include 
only two - Kensington & Chelsea and Newham - where 
a net migration loss exceeded the natural increase. 

As would be expected from the migration flows for 
London, the majority of boroughs - 18 - gain population 
from international flows and lose through internal flows.
However eight boroughs gain from both internal and 
international flows while three - Kensington & Chelsea, 
Lambeth and Southwark - have been estimated to have 
lost to both. Overall only two boroughs are estimated to 
have lost population in 2008-09 - Kensington & Chelsea 
and Newham. Since 2001 the populations of all boroughs 
have been estimated to have increased except for Brent 
and Newham. 

In 2008-09 natural change had an 

overall higher impact on London's 
                                  

population than migration.

|                        | Natural Change   | Migration   |
|------------------------|------------------|-------------|
| Internal (UK)          | International    | Total       |
| Total                  | Population       |             |
| Population             |                  |             |
| In                     | Out              | Net         |
| mid-2008               | mid-2009         |             |
| Births Deaths          | Net              |             |
| Change                 |                  |             |
| City of London         |                  |             |
| 11.3                   | 0.1              | 0.0         |
| Barking and Dagenham   |                  |             |
| 171.5                  | 3.7              | 1.4         |
| Barnet                 |                  |             |
| 338.1                  | 5.2              | 2.4         |
| Bexley                 |                  |             |
| 225.0                  | 2.9              | 2.0         |
| Brent                  |                  |             |
| 254.5                  | 5.0              | 1.6         |
| Bromley                |                  |             |
| 308.0                  | 4.0              | 2.6         |
| Camden                 |                  |             |
| 226.5                  | 3.1              | 1.1         |
| Croydon                |                  |             |
| 341.2                  | 5.2              | 2.5         |
| Ealing                 |                  |             |
| 312.1                  | 5.5              | 1.9         |
| Enfield                |                  |             |
| 289.0                  | 4.9              | 2.1         |
| Greenwich              |                  |             |
| 223.7                  | 4.4              | 1.7         |
| Hackney                |                  |             |
| 212.8                  | 4.4              | 1.1         |
| Hammersmith and Fulham |                  |             |
| 168.6                  | 2.7              | 0.9         |
| Haringey               |                  |             |
| 225.3                  | 4.2              | 1.1         |
| Harrow                 |                  |             |
| 225.4                  | 3.3              | 1.4         |
| Havering               |                  |             |
| 232.3                  | 2.7              | 2.2         |
| Hillingdon             |                  |             |
| 258.1                  | 4.1              | 1.9         |
| Hounslow               |                  |             |
| 230.2                  | 4.2              | 1.4         |
| Islington              |                  |             |
| 188.5                  | 2.9              | 1.1         |
| Kensington and Chelsea |                  |             |
| 171.1                  | 2.2              | 0.8         |
| Kingston upon Thames   |                  |             |
| 164.6                  | 2.3              | 1.0         |
| Lambeth                |                  |             |
| 281.4                  | 4.8              | 1.6         |
| Lewisham               |                  |             |
| 262.0                  | 4.8              | 1.7         |
| Merton                 |                  |             |
| 202.8                  | 3.4              | 1.2         |
| Newham                 |                  |             |
| 242.4                  | 5.9              | 1.4         |
| Redbridge              |                  |             |
| 263.8                  | 4.1              | 1.8         |
| Richmond upon Thames   |                  |             |
| 187.2                  | 2.8              | 1.1         |
| Southwark              |                  |             |
| 283.0                  | 5.0              | 1.5         |
| Sutton                 |                  |             |
| 189.5                  | 2.7              | 1.4         |
| Tower Hamlets          |                  |             |
| 226.8                  | 4.2              | 1.1         |
| Waltham Forest         |                  |             |
| 221.4                  | 4.5              | 1.5         |
| Wandsworth             |                  |             |
| 283.7                  | 5.3              | 1.6         |
| Westminster            |                  |             |
| 246.6                  | 2.9              | 1.1         |
| London                 |                  |             |
| 7,668.3                | 127.7            | 49.3        |

## Fertility And Mortality

As discussed above natural change is the biggest driver of London's total population change, and it plays a significant part in UK population growth. 

Looking first at fertility, in 2008-09 London contributed 
16.2 per cent of all UK births, however its recent fertility profile is little different to that of the UK (Table 4).  The simplest reference measure for fertility is the crude birth rate - births per thousand resident population. By this measure fertility in London was much higher than in the UK (16.7 compared with 12.9 in 2008). A more subtle measure is the general fertility rate (GFR) - births per thousand resident women aged 15-44.  Even here London is ahead of the UK at 69 compared to 63. However, it is age–specific fertility rates (ASFR) and the total fertility rate (TFR - the estimated lifetime births per woman based on current age-specific rates) that reveal the underlying differences between London and the UK. London exhibits age-specific fertility rates a little lower than the UK at ages below 35 but much higher rates for older women, however the total fertility rates of the two areas are extremely close (1.95 for London and 1.96 for the UK).

## Table 4: Fertility Measures, United Kingdom And London, 1991 And 2008

|                      |        | 1991   | 2008   |
|----------------------|--------|--------|--------|
| UK                   | London | UK     | London |
| <20                  | 33     | 29     | 26     |
| 20-24                | 89     | 69     | 74     |
| 25-29                | 120    | 97     | 108    |
| 30-34                | 87     | 96     | 113    |
| 35-39                | 32     | 47     | 58     |
| 40+                  | 5      | 10     | 12     |
| 64                   | 64     | 63     | 69     |
| Fertility Rate       |        |        |        |
| 1                    |        |        |        |
| Total Fertility Rate |        |        |        |
| 2                    |        |        |        |
| 1.82                 | 1.72   | 1.96   | 1.95   |
| Crude Birth Rate     |        |        |        |
| 3                    |        |        |        |
| 13.8                 | 15.5   | 12.9   | 16.7   |
| Total Births (000s)  | 792.3  | 105.8  | 794.4  |

1 Births per thousand resident women aged 15-44.

2 Estimated lifetime births per woman based on current age-specific rates. 3 Births per thousand resident population.

The total number of births in London reflects not just the high proportion of women aged 15-44, but also the Age-specific fertility rates in London are lower than the UK at ages below 35 but much greater for women above that age. 

distribution 
of those 
women in 
the ages of 
the highest 
fertility, the 
late 20s and 
early 30s.  

It is interesting to compare fertility measures for 1991 
with 2008 as there were almost the same numbers of 
births, just over 790 thousand, in the UK in each year. 
However in London births rose from 106 thousand to 128 
thousand. Both the crude birth rates and general fertility 
rates are higher in London, but in London the rates have 
risen while in the UK they have fallen. The age-specific 
fertility rates show a consistent change with the highest 
rates being at 30-34, rather than 25-29, increases at the 
older age groups and declines amongst the younger. 
At the ages where fertility declined, the UK rates fell 
more rapidly than London, while at ages where fertility 
has increased the UK rates rose faster than London. In 
London the greatest contribution to fertility is now being 
made by women aged over 30, but in the UK as a whole 
the greatest contribution is still being made by those 
below 30. The summation of these measures is the TFR. 
In London it has increased from 1.72 to 1.95, while in the 
UK the rise has been less rapid from 1.82 to 1.96. These 
apparent paradoxes in the fertility measures reflect the 
separate changes in the age structures of London and 
the UK - London has become more extreme with the 
proportion of women aged 15-44, and especially 25-34, 
increasing compared with relative declines in the UK.

A major contributor to the increased numbers of 
young women in London is international migration. 
This is reflected in the birth statistics for 2008 (Chart 
4, p.10) when nearly 55 per cent of births in London 
were to women born outside the UK. On this measure 
London was the highest region and the only one to have 
more than the England & Wales average of 24 per cent. 
Of all local authorities only Slough has a higher level 
than London - 56 per cent - but 15 individual London 
boroughs had higher proportions than Slough, led by 
Newham and Brent at over 70 per cent. London had 41 
per cent of all births to women born outside the UK that 
occurred in England & Wales. This compared to just 11 
per cent of births to UK-born women. In London most 
of the 'non-UK' births were to women from Africa (21 
thousand) and Asia (20 thousand). 

## Chart 4: Live Births By Birthplace Of Mother, London, 2008, Thousands

Note:  The 'European Union - new countries' constitutes the twelve countries which have joined the European Union since 2004. The 'European Union - old 15' comprises of fifteen member states which joined before 2004.

      Source: Office for National Statistics

01
1-4
5-15
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
SMR2
Males
     UK
5.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.8
3.2
8.8
22.7
62.2
162.6
100
-
     London
4.7
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.6
1.4
3.5
9.3
22.5
57.0
144.5
93
-
Females
     UK
4.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.1
2.1
5.7
14.6
45.0
146.6
100
-
     London
3.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.9
2.1
5.1
13.6
40.6
133.6
91
-
All
     UK
4.7
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.5
2.6
7.2
18.4
52.3
151.6
100
9.4
     London
4.3
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.5
1.1
2.8
7.1
17.7
47.5
137.3
92
6.6

           1 Deaths of infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births. 2 Standardised mortality rate (SMR) is the ratio of observed deaths to those expected by applying a standard death rate to the area's population. 3 Crude death rate.

While in London the young age 
structure leads to a relatively high 
number of births the reverse is true for 
deaths (Table 5). London's crude death 
rate in 2008 was only 6.6 (per thousand 
resident population) compared with 
9.4 for the United Kingdom. The most 
straightforward way of measuring 
relative mortality between areas is 
the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 
which 
  compares 
     actual 
        recorded 

deaths in an area to the number that 
would have occurred if the standard 
(in this case, UK) age-specific mortality 
rates applied in each locality. For 
London the SMR is 92, implying that 
age-specific mortality rates are on 
average 8 per cent lower than for the 
UK as a whole. In 2008 London only had 
higher mortality rates for males at ages 
45-64 and for females at 1-4 and 45-54. 
Over age 65, where mortality rates 
are highest, London has significantly 
better survivorship.

 

CDR3
UK=100

## Migration

The importance of migration in shaping London's population should not be underestimated even if the combined net impact of UK and international migration has, in recent years, generally been negative. London is the hub for migration flows into and within the UK. This section will show the importance of London as the main focus of international migration to the UK as well as a magnet for students and young workers from the rest of the UK. London then becomes the main source of family and retirement migrants to the rest of the UK.

## Internal Migration

This section considers migration within the UK 
at country and English regional level. The main source of data on long term trends of inter-regional migration is people re-registering with general practitioners (GPs). To partly overcome problems of late re-registration of young adults, ONS has recently added an analysis of moving students to enhance internal migration in the annual mid-year estimate change analysis - see p.6. However, here the GP reregistrations are considered independently based on the annualised tabulations available each quarter. 

1.   London to South East: 84k
2.   South East to London: 57k
3.   London to East: 54k
4.   South East to South West: 39k
5.   East to London: 32k 6.   South West to South East: 32k
7.   East to South East: 27k 8.   South East to East: 24k
9.   London to South West: 19k
10. North West to Yorks & Humber: 19k

The 2001 Census showed that over two-thirds of 
moves in the UK were of less than 10 kilometres 
therefore it is not surprising that inter-regional 
moves between the UK's only city-region and its two 
neighbours, the East and South East, should be four 
of the top five inter-regional flows (Figure 1). In excess 
of two million Londoners live in boroughs that have 
boundaries with each of these regions; therefore 
many short distance radial moves away from the 
centre of London will have destinations in the 
adjacent regions (Chart 5). Inter-regional migration 
is largely concentrated in the greater South East with 
the nine largest flows having at least one of London, 
the East or South East as an origin or destination and 
all six flows between the three regions being in the 
top ten. 

	
            and English Regions, selected years, thousands of people

|                          |       |       |       |       |       | 2001-02   | 2006-07   | Year to Dec. 2009   |
|--------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------|-----------|---------------------|
| In                       | Out   | Net   | In    | Out   | Net   | In        | Out       | Net                 |
| United Kingdom           | 156.0 | 254.2 | -98.2 | 167.0 | 248.4 | -81.4     | 178.1     | 216.2               |
| England                  | 142.4 | 238.6 | -96.2 | 154.5 | 234.5 | -80.0     | 164.7     | 203.9               |
| North East               | 4.7   | 4.5   | 0.2   | 4.8   | 3.9   | 0.9       | 5.3       | 3.5                 |
| North West               | 12.3  | 13.0  | -0.7  | 12.2  | 11.9  | 0.3       | 13.7      | 11.3                |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 9.9   | 10.6  | -0.7  | 10.8  | 9.8   | 1.0       | 12.5      | 8.9                 |
| East Midlands            | 10.1  | 14.7  | -4.6  | 11.4  | 12.4  | -1.0      | 12.2      | 11.8                |
| West Midlands            | 11.4  | 12.8  | -1.4  | 12.3  | 12.1  | 0.2       | 14.3      | 11.7                |
| East                     | 28.4  | 65.1  | -36.7 | 30.8  | 64.9  | -34.1     | 31.9      | 53.7                |
| South East               | 50.6  | 93.9  | -43.3 | 55.9  | 97.1  | -41.2     | 57.4      | 82.6                |
| South West               | 15.0  | 24.1  | -9.1  | 16.3  | 22.4  | -6.1      | 17.9      | 19.4                |
| Wales                    | 4.9   | 5.8   | -0.9  | 5.0   | 5.3   | -0.3      | 5.5       | 4.7                 |
| Scotland                 | 7.3   | 7.8   | -0.5  | 6.2   | 6.9   | -0.7      | 6.6       | 6.3                 |
| Northern Ireland         | 1.4   | 2.0   | -0.6  | 1.3   | 1.8   | -0.5      | 1.3       | 1.3                 |

      Source:  Office for National Statistics
   Source:  National Health Service Central Register

The changing migration flows to and from London 
since 2001-02 are illustrated in Table 6 (p.12). Nearly all of 
the highest flows to London have occurred in the latest 
period, while, with the exception of the South East, all of 
the greatest outflows occurred at the earliest period. In 
2001-02 London only had a net inflow from the North 
East but in the year to December 2009 London had net 
gains from all regions except the East, South East and 
South West. However, the small gains are swamped by 
the losses to the South East (25 thousand) and East (22 
thousand). Overall London's net loss was 38 thousand. 
The net loss from London has not traditionally been 
this low (Chart 6, p.12) Current levels are the lowest 
for twenty years and the net loss was as high as 116 
thousand as recently as 2004. 

The most significant changes have taken place 
over between June 2007 and December 2009. The 
outflow from London has fallen by over 13 per 
cent while the inflow increased by 7 per cent to 
reach new record levels since GP registrations were 
used to estimated internal migration in the 1980s 
(Table 7). The recent changes have their roots in the 
period of economic uncertainty. In the UK as a whole, 
inter-regional moves declined by 6 per cent between 
the years ending June 2007 and December 2009. Most 
people leaving London for other parts of the UK are 

        Source: National Health Service Central Register

|   	            |        selected flows between June 2007    |
|------------|--------------------------------------------|
|            | and December 2009, percentages             |
| To:        |                                            |
| East       | London                                     |
| From:      |                                            |
| East       | 3.6                                        |
| London     | -17.3                                      |
| South East | -7.3                                       |
| Rest of UK | -3.3                                       |
| Total      | -9.7                                       |

 Source:  Office for National Statistics

moving into owner occupation. The increased difficulty 
in obtaining a mortgage has limited the ability of many 
families to leave London. At the same time there has been 
an increase in participation in higher education and the 
London job market for young workers has not been as 
affected as much as other parts of the country, hence the 
only inter-regional flows that have increased over the last 
two years have been those with destinations in London. 
Most of the people moving to London are young and 
will look for accommodation in the expanding private 
renting sector. 

      Source:  National Health Service Central Register
     Source:  National Health Service Central Register The only age group with a net inflow to London from the rest of the UK is the 20-29  age group.

The impacts of the recent changes in migration are 
illustrated by the net flows between London and the 
East, the South East and the Rest of UK since 2001 (Chart 
7, p.13). The net losses from London to the East and 
the South East both peaked in 2004 and were both flat 
between 2005 and the end of 2008. After which they fell 
dramatically to around half of the 2004 values by mid-
2009. On the other hand London's relationship with 
the Rest of the UK has completely turned around. From 
losses of 30 thousand in 2004 there has been a decline in 
almost every subsequent quarter leading to a net inflow 
to London in the year ending September 2008 and a net 
flow to London of 11 thousand in the year to September 
2009. 

children as well as all ages between 15 and 39. The 
largest net losses are seen at 0-4, 15-19 and 30-44.
Comparing the latest flows by age, with those in the 
year to September 2007 (Chart 9, p.14) shows that the 
increased inflows are, proportionally, fairly evenly spread 
at all ages below 55, with reductions in the relatively 
small flows at higher ages. Although overall there was a 
reduction in 
the outflow 
there were 
some 
increases 
in the late 
teens and
early twenties, possibly as a result of more Londoners 
going to university outside London. The greatest 
proportional reductions in the outflow are at ages around 
and above retirement. Although the retirement moves 
away from London are relatively small, 23 thousand 
persons aged over 55 compared to 31 thousand at ages 

The inflow to London is dominated by people aged 
20-29, the only ages at which there is also a net inflow 
(Chart 8, p.14). Few school-age children and people over 
50 move to London. The age-profile of the outflow is 
less extreme having a significant number of pre-school 

## Table 8: Internal Migration, The Three Largest Inter-Regional Flows From Each Region Of Origin, Year To December 2009, Thousands

|                                                           |             |           | Largest     | 2nd Largest    | 3rd Largest    | Average    |
|-----------------------------------------------------------|-------------|-----------|-------------|----------------|----------------|------------|
| Region of                                                 | Flow        | Region of | Flow        | Region of      | Flow           | Top 3 Flow |
| Region of Origin                                          | Destination | (000s)    | Destination | (000s)         | Destination    | (000s)     |
| London                                                    |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| S East                                                    | 83.6        | East      | 53.7        | S West         | 19.4           | 52.2       |
| South East                                                |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| London                                                    | 56.9        | S West    | 39.1        | East           | 24.1           | 40.0       |
| East                                                      |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| London                                                    | 31.9        | S East    | 26.7        | E Mids         | 15.6           | 24.7       |
| South West                                                |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| S East                                                    | 31.8        | London    | 17.9        | W Mids         | 11.4           | 20.4       |
| East Midlands                                             |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| Yorks & H                                                 | 15.7        | W Mids    | 14.0        | S East         | 13.5           | 14.4       |
| West Midlands                                             |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| E Mids                                                    | 15.5        | S West    | 14.4        | London         | 14.3           | 14.7       |
| Yorkshire & the Humber                                    |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| N West                                                    | 18.0        | E Mids    | 17.2        | London         | 12.5           | 15.9       |
| North West                                                |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| Yorks & H                                                 | 18.6        | London    | 13.7        | W Mids         | 11.4           | 14.6       |
| North East                                                |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| Yorks & H                                                 | 9.1         | N West    | 5.8         | London         | 5.3            | 6.7        |
| Wales                                                     |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| S West                                                    | 9.4         | N West    | 8.3         | W Mids         | 7.2            | 8.3        |
| Scotland                                                  |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| London                                                    | 6.6         | N West    | 5.9         | S East         | 5.6            | 6.0        |
| Northern Ireland                                          |             |           |             |                |                |            |
| N West                                                    | 2.2         | Scotland  | 2.1         | London         | 1.3            | 1.9        |
| Grey background flows are between non-contiguous regions. |             |           |             |                |                |            |

25-29, this group includes people who realise some of the capital locked up in their London properties to part-fund their retirement. The length and depth of the economic downturn may mean that for some of these people the move away from London will never happen. This would have knock-on effects on the NHS and London borough social services in future years, when there is already expected to be a significant growth in London's elderly population.

Migration changes at the pre-school ages (0-4) have 
recently contributed to exacerbating the impact of the 
rise in births since 2001 on the education services of 
London boroughs. The absolute decline in the outflow, 
even with a rising population of under-5s, coupled with 
the increase in the inflow has reduced the expected net 
outflow from London of children aged 0 to 4. Therefore 
reception class places have been oversubscribed in 
several boroughs and most boroughs are catering for 
more children than were expected. The ONS mid-year 
estimates show that between 2005 and 2009 the number 
of 4-year olds in London rose by nearly 15 thousand, 
while the number of births in London which gave rise to 
these cohorts had increased by just over 10 thousand. 

with the flows from London to the South East, East 
and South West. It then picks out the three main 
destinations of flows from those three regions. This 
brings in two additional regions, the East Midlands and 
the West Midlands. The East Midlands brings in Yorkshire 
and the Humber, which then adds the North West to the 
cascade. This successive process fails to show any strong 
links with the North East nor with Wales, Scotland and 
Northern Ireland. At successive stages of the cascade 
the average of the three largest flows also declines, from 
over 50 thousand from London to two thousand from, 
small and geographically isolated, Northern Ireland. 
The populations of the North East, Wales and Northern 
Ireland are significantly lower than those of Scotland and 
the other regions, therefore outflows from these areas are 
expected to be lower. Flows between non-contiguous 
regions are indicated by a grey background. London is 
one of the three most popular destinations for seven of 
the nine regions with which it does not share a boundary, 
the exceptions being the East Midlands and Wales. The 
only other non-contiguous flows illustrated are those 
from London to the South West and from Scotland to 
the South East. London is a favoured destination for nine 
of the eleven other regions/countries. The next most 
favoured destinations, with five, are the South East and 
the North West, which has land boundaries with Wales, 
Scotland and three English regions as well as being the 
closest part of England to Northern Ireland.

## International Migration

Since 2001, the share of immigrants coming to the UK 
and choosing London fell from 
37 per cent to 28 per cent. 

There are several definitions of international migration. 
Long-term migrants intend to stay in the UK (or leave 
the UK) for at least a year. People meeting this standard 
United Nations definition are 
included in the ONS estimates 
of the resident population. 
People, who intend to stay (or 
leave) the UK for less than a 
year are described as short-term 
migrants. These moves are not 
included in resident population 
estimates. ONS has experimentally estimated short-term 
migrant flows for England and Wales on the basis of stays 
of 1-12 months and 3-12 months, with some analysis of 
purpose of stay. ONS has also issued local authority level 
estimates relating to 2006-07 for consultation purposes.

Estimates of international migration are drawn from a number of sources, the principal of which is the International Passenger Survey (IPS), which has recently been improved to concentrate more on migrants, as opposed to tourism, and now, with the inclusion of the Republic of Ireland, includes moves with all countries outside the UK. At the regional level IPS immigrant estimates are distributed using data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). IPS emigrant estimates are distributed by a modelling process. Other sources are UK Borders Agency administrative data on asylum seekers and estimates of switchers, that is persons whose 

actual length of stay (either in 
or outside the UK) is different 
from their original intentions. 
These three sources together 
are combined to create the 
ONS estimates of Long-term 
International Migration (LTIM). 
There are also administrative 

data sets that are useful as indicators of international 
migration. Of these, National Insurance and National 
Health Service data are considered below.
The latest estimates of Long-term International 
Migration relating to London are shown in Chart 3 (p.7). 
These are from the recently revised mid-year estimates 
series. ONS data in the LTIM series are available in both 
calendar year and mid-year to mid-year formats, but 
have not yet been revised to match the flows used in 
the mid-year estimates. The main difference is in the 
distribution of emigrants, but Charts 10 (p.16) and 11 
adequately illustrate the main trends of change through 
the decade. Since 2001 London has seen its share of total 
immigration to the UK fall from around 37 per cent to 
28 per cent. The data on emigration are more difficult to 

## Table 9: National Insurance Registrations

	
           by Citizens of the Twelve EU Accession 	
	
           Countries, UK and London,
	
           2002/03 to 2008/09, thousands

|         |   London |    UK |   London as % of UK |
|---------|----------|-------|---------------------|
| 2002/03 |     11.3 |  17.7 |                64.2 |
| 2003/04 |     18.8 |  28.7 |                65.5 |
| 2004/05 |     38   | 116.8 |                32.5 |
| 2005/06 |     63.7 | 276.7 |                23   |
| 2006/07 |     68.9 | 317.5 |                21.7 |
| 2007/08 |     87.7 | 332.4 |                26.4 |
| 2008/09 |     74.4 | 257   |                28.9 |

       Source:  Department for Work and Pensions

collect and estimate, therefore there are less clear trends, 
but London's share of emigration has also fallen, though 
not as fast, from around 31 per cent to 26 per cent. In 
2006 and 2006-07 London's share of emigration was 
estimated to have exceeded its share of immigration, 
which meant that London's share of the net inflow to the 
UK plummeted from 42 per cent in 2005-06 to 28 per 
cent in 2006. More recently London's share of the UK net 
flow has been around 31 per cent, but of a significantly 
reduced total.

There are a number of indicators based on 
administrative sources that give additional evidence 
about international flows into the UK. However none 
such exist for emigration. Charts 12 and 13 (both p.19) 

    Table 10: Asylum Seekers (from the mid-year
             	             estimate change analyses), England 
             and London, 2001-02 to 2008-09,
	
             thousands

|         | London   |   England |   London as % of England |
|---------|----------|-----------|--------------------------|
| 2001-02 | 43.4     |      85.1 |                     51   |
| 2002-03 | X        |      37.7 |                     76.4 |
| 2003-04 | X        |      18.6 |                     39.8 |
| 2004-05 | X        |      12.4 |                     28.2 |
| 2005-06 | X        |       9.1 |                     21.7 |
| 2006-07 | X        |       8.1 |                     20.1 |
| 2007-08 | X        |       8.1 |                     21.7 |
| 2008-09 | X        |       8.9 |                     24.9 |

       Source:  Office for National Statistics

compare inflows based on the mid-year estimates, 
National Insurance Numbers (NINos) issued to foreign 
nationals, and new registrations from overseas to 
the National Health Service, referred to as Flag 4s. 
ONS is currently using the NINos and Flag 4s in its 

modelling of the distribution of international inflows 
to local authorities within regions - but not at regional 
level. Hence there is independence between the 
three sources, but it must be borne in mind that there 
are inconsistencies in the definitions that are being 
used. NINos are frequently issued several years after 
the person's arrival in the UK. The NHS requires three 
months residence before registration. Neither source 
distinguishes between potential long-term (more than a 
year) and short-term UK residence intentions, which is a 
key definitional issue for the ONS LTIM estimates used in 
the mid-year estimates.   

In terms of numbers of arrivals the NINos show the huge 
rise in labour migration to London after the eight Eastern 
European countries (the A8) were admitted to the EU in 
May 2004. Up to mid-2009 new NINos in London had 
plateaued, but nationally new registrations have fallen 
from the 2007-08 peak, partly as a consequence of the 
reduced demand for labour in the recession. The Flag 
4s have continued to rise in London and are broadly 
at the same level as the Mid-year Estimates/Long-term 
International Migration. Nationally Flag 4s have fallen 
from a peak in 2007-08. In terms of the proportion of the 
inflows to England that are accounted for by London, 
until 2006-07 all three data sources show a declining 
share coming to London. Flag 4s are very similar to the 
Mid-year Estimates/Long-term International Migration 
but London is having a considerably higher share of 
NINo registrations. This could be a function of short-term 
labour migration and/or registration at a first address 
before moving out of London. The proportions of both 
NINos and Flag 4s in London have increased in the latest 
periods. This may also be due to recession effects with 
reduced demand for labour being seen more outside 
London.

The impact of all twelve EU accession countries, 
including Cyprus and Malta in 2004 and Bulgaria and 
Romania in 2007, on NINo registrations is shown in 
Table 9. Numbers rose much more rapidly outside 
London after 2004 and the proportion coming to London 
fell from 65 per cent to 22 per cent in 2006/07. With total 
numbers stabilising in 2007/08 and then falling, the 
proportion coming to London in 2008/09 has increased 
to 29 per cent. 
ONS has recently issued provisional national estimates 
based on the IPS showing that in the year to the end 

          Source:  Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions and National Health Service
      Source:  Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions and National Health Service

of September 2009 there was the first recorded net 
emigration of A8 citizens since the time of accession. 
This was largely as the result of a decline of long-term 
immigrants from 100 thousand in the year to September 
2008 to just 45 thousand.

Asylum seeker applications have fallen considerably 
since the late 1990s. Table 10 (p.18) shows the estimated 
numbers coming to London as shown in the ONS 
mid-year estimate change analyses. The total flow has 
declined as has London's share of the England total. The 
only other data on asylum that identifies London relates 
to those receiving some kind of support. In March 
2010 the Home Office registered 2,775 asylum seekers 
receiving subsistence support in London and 1,225 
receiving accommodation, out of UK totals of 4,015 and 
22,735 respectively. 

The only available short-term migration (STM) estimates for London were published by ONS as 'consultation' statistics in 2009. They relate to inflows in 2006-07 of between 1 and 12 months stay and indicate that London had 60 thousand STM workers, 35 per cent of the England total, and 420 thousand other STMs, 37 per cent of England. Nationally, the majority of the arrivals were having either extended visits with family and friends (40 per cent) or were on holiday (16 per cent). Only 13 per cent came to work.

## Table 11: Population Turnover, 2008-09, Thousands, Rates

| Turnover (000s)          | Turnover      |
|--------------------------|---------------|
| Rate per                 |               |
| Internal                 |               |
| 1000                     |               |
| (UK)                     | International |
| North East               | 89.3          |
| North West               | 227.5         |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 210.8         |
| East Midlands            | 221.6         |
| West Midlands            | 211.4         |
| East                     | 275.2         |
| London                   | 442.4         |
| South East               | 435.4         |
| South West               | 253.3         |
| Wales                    | 111.5         |

## Turnover And Churn

The turnover of population in an area due to migration 
flows of people into and out of the area can have a 
significant impact on public services, for example 
the numbers of 
children 
     joining 

In 2008-2009 more than 

new 
         schools 

700,000 people moved into 

or out of London.

during the school 
year, the numbers 
of 
      households 

reregistering with local authorities for council tax and 
the numbers of people changing general practitioners 
(Table 11). Using the internal and international flows from 
the mid-year estimate change analysis for 2008-09 it is 
possible to compare turnover rates at the regional level. 
It is estimated that over 700 thousand people moved 
across the London boundary, although this total would 
double-count any people who moved both into and 
away from London in the same year. The rate of 93 per 
thousand resident population compares with 68 in the 
next highest region - the South East and 44 - the lowest - 
in the North West. These figures also mean that 47 in every 
thousand residents in London lived outside London a 
year earlier.

Turnover rates for lower tier local authorities are 
relatively higher (Table 12, p.21) since the calculations 
also incorporate moves between authorities in the same 
region. The highest local authority turnover rates  in 
2008-09 were recorded in Cambridge (335) and Oxford 
(310) with a number of other areas outside London with 

Inflow
Rate per 
Outflow
Rate per 
1000
1000

large student populations also having 
high turnover. London boroughs had 
rates between 82 (Havering) and 273 
(Islington). Most inner boroughs had 
rates in excess of 200 while the only 
other authority outside London above 
200 was Manchester. The highest inflow 
rate in London was 140 per thousand in 
Islington and the highest outflow was 
138 for Hammersmith & Fulham. Both 
these rates were only exceeded by 
Cambridge and Oxford. 

Moves within each area are called 
internal churn. Internal churn plus 
turnover gives overall churn which is a 
measure of all people who have either 
moved in or out or within the area. The 
internal churn is based on statistics 
from the 2001 Census to account 

| Turnover (000s)        | Turnover      | Inflow     | Outflow    | Internal   |   Churn |
|------------------------|---------------|------------|------------|------------|---------|
| Rate                   | Rate          | Rate       | Churn Rate | Rate       |         |
| (per 1000)             | (per 1000)    | (per 1000) | (per 1000) | (per 1000) |         |
| Internal (UK)          | International | Total      |            |            |         |
| City of London         | 1.7           | 1.3        | 3.0        | 264        |     138 |
| Barking and Dagenham   | 21.8          | 3.7        | 25.6       | 147        |      79 |
| Barnet                 | 40.8          | 10.1       | 51.0       | 150        |      78 |
| Bexley                 | 19.7          | 1.6        | 21.3       | 95         |      47 |
| Brent                  | 39.1          | 10.5       | 49.6       | 194        |      92 |
| Bromley                | 28.5          | 2.7        | 31.2       | 101        |      52 |
| Camden                 | 43.6          | 17.0       | 60.6       | 265        |     138 |
| Croydon                | 37.8          | 7.4        | 45.2       | 132        |      65 |
| Ealing                 | 44.7          | 14.8       | 59.5       | 189        |      96 |
| Enfield                | 34.8          | 4.2        | 39.0       | 135        |      66 |
| Greenwich              | 32.4          | 7.6        | 40.1       | 178        |      89 |
| Hackney                | 36.8          | 6.5        | 43.3       | 202        |     101 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 34.5          | 11.3       | 45.8       | 271        |     133 |
| 321                    |               |            |            |            |         |
| Haringey               | 40.6          | 7.3        | 47.9       | 212        |     100 |
| Harrow                 | 28.5          | 5.4        | 33.9       | 150        |      77 |
| Havering               | 18.0          | 1.2        | 19.2       | 82         |      44 |
| Hillingdon             | 30.8          | 5.3        | 36.2       | 139        |      74 |
| Hounslow               | 33.2          | 10.7       | 43.9       | 189        |      97 |
| Islington              | 42.0          | 9.8        | 51.8       | 273        |     140 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 23.4          | 13.9       | 37.2       | 218        |     102 |
| Kingston upon Thames   | 24.5          | 4.9        | 29.4       | 177        |      91 |
| Lambeth                | 57.8          | 12.4       | 70.2       | 249        |     122 |
| Lewisham               | 41.2          | 6.4        | 47.6       | 181        |      89 |
| Merton                 | 30.1          | 8.7        | 38.8       | 190        |      98 |
| Newham                 | 40.0          | 8.7        | 48.7       | 201        |      89 |
| Redbridge              | 33.6          | 6.0        | 39.6       | 149        |      77 |
| Richmond upon Thames   | 25.8          | 5.2        | 31.0       | 165        |      82 |
| Southwark              | 49.6          | 10.7       | 60.3       | 212        |     104 |
| 45                     | 257           |            |            |            |         |
| Sutton                 | 19.3          | 2.2        | 21.5       | 113        |      60 |
| Tower Hamlets          | 39.6          | 13.5       | 53.1       | 230        |     125 |
| Waltham Forest         | 30.4          | 8.3        | 38.7       | 174        |      87 |
| Wandsworth             | 59.3          | 14.4       | 73.8       | 259        |     128 |
| Westminster            | 40.8          | 19.1       | 59.9       | 241        |     123 |

       Source:  Office for National Statistics, mid-year estimates

for the 350 thousand persons who moved in 2000-01 
without changing their borough of residence. Internal 
churn rates varied from 36 per thousand in Havering and 
Redbridge to 61 per thousand in Wandsworth. 
The overall churn rates varied in 2008-09 from 119 
per thousand in Havering to 321 in Hammersmith 
& Fulham. The sum of internal churn and the 
inflow rate is the proportion of the population 
of a borough that lived elsewhere a year ago, 
for London the median value of the boroughs is 
140 per thousand, but this rises to almost 190 in 
Wandsworth.

## Demographic Projections

Source:  Greater London Authority, 2009 Round of Demographic Projections As part of the preparation for the draft replacement London Plan the GLA prepared demographic projections for London boroughs. These included population by age, gender and ethnicity, households by age, gender and marital status of the household representative (as well as by five types of household), and economically active residents by age and gender. These have been converted to ward level population projections by age and gender. GLA projections differ from ONS subnational population projections and the associated CLG household projections, as the GLA uses actual and planned housing development as the lead indicator of population change since 2001. ONS relies on using recent trends in the 

## Table 13: Summary Of Demographic Projections For The London Plan, 2006 To 2031, Thousands

|                        | 2006    | 2011    | 2016    | 2021    | 2026    | 2031    |
|------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| Married Couples        | 1,037.2 | 964.2   | 909.3   | 869.5   | 840.1   | 833.9   |
| Cohabiting Couples     | 333.1   | 400.3   | 455.8   | 503.3   | 547.4   | 584.3   |
| Lone Parents           | 317.7   | 347.8   | 375.4   | 395.5   | 410.7   | 425.1   |
| Other (2+ Adults)      | 340.0   | 357.7   | 378.7   | 399.8   | 420.9   | 440.8   |
| One-person             | 1,146.5 | 1,252.7 | 1,370.5 | 1,488.4 | 1,604.3 | 1,706.2 |
| Total Households       | 3,174.5 | 3,322.8 | 3,489.6 | 3,656.5 | 3,823.4 | 3,990.3 |
| Household Population   | 7,434.1 | 7,713.7 | 7,983.1 | 8,242.7 | 8,493.6 | 8,729.7 |
| Average Household Size | 2.34    | 2.32    | 2.29    | 2.25    | 2.22    | 2.19    |
| Communal Population    | 92.8    | 93.1    | 93.3    | 94.1    | 96.1    | 99.1    |
| Total Population       | 7,526.9 | 7,806.8 | 8,076.4 | 8,336.9 | 8,589.7 | 8,828.8 |
| Economically Active    | 3,902.0 | 4,071.2 | 4,231.2 | 4,372.6 | 4,493.0 | 4,593.0 |

estimated local migration levels constrained to national 
assumptions about international flows. Table 13 shows 
the main results of the GLA projection, which between 
2011 and 2031 is based on the London Plan borough 
housing targets amounting to an average of 33,400 new 
homes per year. Table 14 (p.23) shows the main results 
for the boroughs.
Between 2011 and 2031 London's population is 

projected to increase by 1.02 

million persons, equivalent to 13 

per cent. Households are expected 
to increase by 667 thousand, or 
20 per cent. The difference in the 
rates of change is a reflection of 
the 6 per cent decline in average 
household size from 2.32 to 2.19.

The 
   structure 
        of 
          household 

change is dominated by the 450 
thousand increase in one-person 
households that accounts for 68 
per cent of the total household 
growth.

The resident labour force has 
been projected using borough 
level 
   age-specific 
           economic 

activity rates which are based on 
the 2001 Census and improved 
according 
            to 
                 ONS 
                         national 

projections until 2020. The rates 
are then held constant. Between 

## Table 14: Summary Of Demographic Projections For The London Plan, London Boroughs,

2011 and 2031, thousands
| 2011                   | 2031           |
|------------------------|----------------|
| Econonomically         | Econonomically |
| Population             | Households     |
| City of London         | 9.7            |
| Barking and Dagenham   | 177.8          |
| Barnet                 | 330.6          |
| Bexley                 | 217.4          |
| Brent                  | 279.6          |
| Bromley                | 302.4          |
| Camden                 | 210.9          |
| Croydon                | 342.9          |
| Ealing                 | 319.5          |
| Enfield                | 294.2          |
| Greenwich              | 238.1          |
| Hackney                | 231.5          |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 180.6          |
| Haringey               | 237.2          |
| Harrow                 | 220.7          |
| Havering               | 231.6          |
| Hillingdon             | 261.8          |
| Hounslow               | 237.2          |
| 128.4                  |                |
| Islington              | 208.8          |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 169.9          |
| Kingston upon Thames   | 155.3          |
| Lambeth                | 300.2          |
| Lewisham               | 272.7          |
| Merton                 | 198.7          |
| Newham                 | 267.9          |
| Redbridge              | 258.8          |
| Richmond upon Thames   | 186.4          |
| Southwark              | 285.5          |
| Sutton                 | 185.9          |
| Tower Hamlets          | 248.7          |
| Waltham Forest         | 229.4          |
| Wandsworth             | 297.5          |
| Westminster            | 217.2          |
| London                 | 7,806.8        |

       Source:  Greater London Authority 2009, Round of Demographic Projections

2011 and 2031 there is a 520 thousand increase in the 
resident labour force aged 16-74, equivalent to 13 per 
cent. The female contribution to the labour force rises 
by over 310 thousand and is 60 per cent of the total 
growth.

Between 2011 and 2031 the growth in population 
is seen at most age groups (Chart 14, p.22). The only 
exception is the under-5s, which reflects the downward 
revision in national fertility assumptions. The changes 
demonstrate both a distinct ageing pattern, particularly 
with an increase of over 400 thousand persons between 
45 and 64 as well as a significant increase in the child 
population, with 115 thousand more children of school 
age (4-15). The elderly population is projected to grow 
particularly fast. The over 65s are projected to increase 
by 34 per cent, or nearly 300 thousand, to reach 1.17 
million by 2031. The over 90s are expected to almost 
double to 96 thousand. 

Table 15 compares the London Plan projection for 
London with the latest ONS and CLG projections 
of population and households. The London Plan 
projections followed the trend in the original series of 
ONS mid-year estimates that were superseded in May 
2010; therefore the results for 2011 are quite close to the 
ONS/CLG 2006-based projections. The upward revisions 
to the mid-year estimates informed the ONS 2008-based 
projections so the starting population and the migration 
trajectory were both higher. Overall the change in the 
London Plan projection is a little less than the ONS/
CLG 2006-based figures but somewhat lower than the 
ONS 2008-based projections, which have not yet been 
converted to households by CLG. Although the London 
Plan projections followed ONS mid-year estimate trends 
for London this was not done for each borough, hence 
the borough projections for 2011 are in several instances 
quite different to the ONS mid-year estimates for 2009 
shown in Table 16 (p.25).

## Table 15: Comparison Of Population And Household Projections For London, 2011 And 2031, Thousands

| 2011                                         | 2031       |
|----------------------------------------------|------------|
| Percentage Change                            |            |
| Population                                   | Households |
| Greater London Authority, London Plan        | 7,807      |
| Office for National Statistics/              |            |
| Communities and Local Government, 2006-based |            |
| 7,817                                        | 3,337      |
| Office for National Statistics, 2008-based   | 7,868      |

       Sources:  Greater London Authority, 2009 Round of Demographic Projections.

Percentage of Total
16-
16-
Retirement 
Retirement 
Retirement 
Retirement 
Total
0-15
Age1
Age+
0-15
Age1
Age+
City of London
11.5
0.8
9.3
1.4
7.0
80.9
12.2
Barking and Dagenham
175.6
43.4
108.6
23.6
24.7
61.8
13.4
Barnet
343.1
69.5
217.5
56.1
20.3
63.4
16.4
Bexley
225.9
45.3
137.8
42.8
20.1
61.0
18.9
Brent
255.5
51.5
166.0
38.0
20.2
65.0
14.9
Bromley
310.2
60.7
188.8
60.7
19.6
60.9
19.6
Camden
231.2
35.5
170.5
25.3
15.4
73.7
10.9
Croydon
342.8
71.1
218.6
53.1
20.7
63.8
15.5
Ealing
316.6
60.5
214.3
41.9
19.1
67.7
13.2
Enfield
291.2
63.1
182.7
45.5
21.7
62.7
15.6
Greenwich
226.1
48.0
147.8
30.4
21.2
65.4
13.4
Hackney
216.0
46.8
147.4
21.8
21.7
68.2
10.1
Hammersmith and Fulham
169.7
28.6
120.5
20.7
16.9
71.0
12.2
Haringey
225.5
44.3
155.7
25.5
19.6
69.0
11.3
Harrow
228.1
43.8
146.6
37.7
19.2
64.3
16.5
Havering
234.1
44.3
141.4
48.5
18.9
60.4
20.7
Hillingdon
262.5
53.4
168.5
40.6
20.3
64.2
15.5
Hounslow
234.2
45.3
159.6
29.4
19.3
68.1
12.6
Islington
191.8
30.4
141.3
20.1
15.8
73.7
10.5
Kensington and Chelsea
169.9
27.4
113.8
28.7
16.1
67.0
16.9
Kingston upon Thames
166.7
29.8
113.1
23.8
17.9
67.8
14.3
Lambeth
283.3
49.0
207.0
27.3
17.3
73.1
9.6
Lewisham
264.5
52.6
182.2
29.7
19.9
68.9
11.2
Merton
206.4
37.9
140.2
28.4
18.4
67.9
13.8
Newham
241.2
59.9
157.7
23.6
24.8
65.4
9.8
Redbridge
267.7
57.6
170.9
39.2
21.5
63.8
14.6
Richmond upon Thames
189.0
37.0
122.8
29.1
19.6
65.0
15.4
Southwark
285.6
50.0
205.9
29.7
17.5
72.1
10.4
Sutton
192.2
38.3
122.2
31.7
19.9
63.6
16.5
Tower Hamlets
234.8
45.8
170.0
19.1
19.5
72.4
8.1
Waltham Forest
224.3
48.9
147.2
28.2
21.8
65.6
12.6
Wandsworth
286.6
46.8
208.3
31.5
16.3
72.7
11.0
Westminster
249.4
31.7
185.7
32.0
12.7
74.5
12.8
London
7,753.6
1,498.7
5,189.8
1,065.0
19.3
66.9
13.7

1Retirement Age is taken as 60 for females and 65 for males.

       Source:  Office for National Statistics, mid-year estimates

## Notes

Mid-year estimates 
(Tables 1, 2, 3, 16, and Chart 3)  
The estimated resident population of an area includes all people who usually live there, whatever their nationality. People arriving into an area from outside the UK are only included in the population estimates if their total stay in the UK is 12 months or more. Visitors and shortterm migrants (those who enter the UK for less than 12 months) are not included. Similarly, people who leave the UK are only excluded from the population estimates if they remain outside the UK for 12 months or more. This is consistent with the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant. Members of UK and non-UK armed forces stationed in the UK are included in the population and UK forces stationed outside the UK are excluded. Students are taken to be resident at their term time address. 'Other changes' includes changes in population due to changes in the number of armed forces (both non-UK and UK) and their dependants resident in the UK. In calculating the international migration component of the population estimates, ONS uses the United Nations recommended definition of an international longterm migrant (someone who changes their country of residence for at least 12 months). This component does not include short-term migrants and visitors. The other component of population change is 'Natural Change' - the number of births less the number of deaths.

Total Fertility Rate
(Table 4)
Age-specific birth rates for the United Kingdom have been calculated from all births registered in the UK, i.e. including births to mothers usually resident outside the UK apart from those to the non-residents of Northern Ireland, which are excluded. Data relate to year of occurrence in England and Wales, and year of registration in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of live children that a woman would bear if the female population experienced the Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFRs) of the calendar year in question throughout their childbearing life-span.

Standardised mortality ratio
(Table 5) The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) compares overall mortality in a region with that for the UK. The ratio expresses the actual number of deaths in a region as a percentage of the hypothetical number that would have occurred if the region's population had experienced the sex/age-specific rates of the UK that year.

Inter-regional migration
(Figure 1, Table 6, 7, 8, Chart 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9)
Estimates for internal population movements are 
based on the movement of NHS doctors' patients 
between former Health Authorities (HAs) in England 
and Wales and Area Health Boards (AHBs) in Scotland 
and Northern Ireland. The figures provide a detailed 
indicator of population movement within the UK. 
However, they should not be regarded as a perfect 
measure of migration as there is variation in the delay 
between a person moving and registering with a new 
doctor. Additionally, some moves may not result in a re-
registration, i.e. individuals may migrate again before 
registering with a doctor. Conversely, there may be 
others who move and re-register several times in a year. 
Not everyone registers with a doctor so their movement 
will not be recorded.

International migration
(Chart 3, 10, 11, 12, 13)

The richest source of information on international 
migrants comes from the International Passenger Survey 
(IPS), which is a sample survey of passengers arriving 
at, and departing from, the main United Kingdom air 
and sea ports and Channel Tunnel. This survey provides 
migration estimates based on respondents' intended 
length of stay in the UK or abroad and excludes most 
persons seeking asylum and some dependents of such 
asylum seekers. More can be found about the IPS from 
the following link: www.statistics.gov.uk/ssd/surveys/
international_passenger_survey.asp .

Population Turnover Rate
(Table 11, 12)

To help users who wish to compare different areas the 
migration estimates are converted into rates using the 
average population estimates of 2001 and mid-year 
2007. An inflow rate of 141 therefore means that for 
every 1,000 people estimated to be living in the area at 
the end of the year, 141 people lived outside the area, 
one year previously. The rates include international 
migrants (people moving to or from the UK).