## Over The Last Two Weeks Uk Case-Rates Have Doubled

Source: http://coronavirus.data.gov.uk https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences
*Data for Wales includes confirmed and suspected COVID-19 patients in acute hospitals only. Data for Scotland up to 22 December, for England up to 26 December, and for Northern Ireland up to 28 December. Definitions vary across the devolved administrations. See statistical notes for more information.

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-pressconferences

## The Estimated Number Of People Testing Positive For Covid-19 In The Community In England Has Continued To Increase

Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey These estimates refer to infections reported in the community in private households. These estimates exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

## The Percentage Testing Positive For The New Variant Is Increasing In Every Region In England

Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey These estimates refer to infections reported in the community in private households. They exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

## Local Restriction Tiers In England, From Thursday 31 December

Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/full-list-of-local-restriction-tiers-by-area and Office for National Statistics mid-2019 population estimates https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

## Statistical Notes

Case-rates: Case rates are the total number of people with a positive COVID-19 virus test result per 100,000 population, by specimen date, for the rolling seven-day periods ending on the date shown in the given areas. People going into hospital with COVID-19, UK: England data includes people admitted to hospital who have COVID-19 when they are admitted, plus people who tested positive in the previous 24 hours while in hospital. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are assumed to have been admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis. Scotland data includes patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days before being admitted to hospital, on the day they were admitted or when they were in hospital. Wales data includes confirmed and suspected cases, and is the number of admissions to the hospital in the previous 24 hour period up to 9am. The status of COVID/non-COVID is as at the time of reporting not when the person was admitted. Northern Ireland data includes suspected and confirmed COVID-19 admissions by the date people were admitted. Estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England: We provide 95% credible intervals because the figures are based on a model from a sample of people. A credible interval is calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval. The estimates refer to infections reported in the community in private households. These estimates exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. To improve stability in our modelling while maintaining relative timeliness of our estimates, we are reporting our official estimates based on the midpoint of the reference week. This week, the reference day for positivity rates is Sunday 20 December 2020. For further information, contact infection.survey.analysis@ons.gov.uk. Estimated number of people testing positive for the new COVID-19 variant in regions of England: This analysis was produced by Sarah Walker at the University of Oxford and looks at the prevalence of the new variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) across the UK. Swabs are tested for three genes present in the coronavirus: N protein, S protein and ORF1ab. Each swab can have any one, any two or all three genes detected. Positives are those where one or more of these genes is detected in the swab other than tests that are only positive on the S-gene, which is not considered a reliable indicator of the virus if found on its own. The new variant of COVID-19 has genetic changes in the S-gene. This means the S-gene is no longer detected in the current test, and cases that would have previously been positive on all three genes are now positive only on the ORF1ab and the N-gene (not the S-gene). There are also other reasons why a swab may be positive for only these two genes, including lower viral load in the sample, which is why we have always seen a small percentage of this type of positive result. Absence of the S-gene appears to have become a reliable indicator of the new variation in COVID-19 from mid-November, based on the higher levels of virus in these type of positives after this date. Prior to that, the data should not be read as being an indicator of the variant.

## Statistical Notes

Population by tier: Estimates of population by tier in England. Population data is taken from the Office for National Statistics mid-2019 population estimates. Further information and data UK - COVID-19 in the UK; for further information contact coronavirus-tracker@phe.gov.uk Welsh Government - NHS activity and capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic Scottish Government - COVID-19 daily data for Scotland Northern Ireland - COVID-19 statistics