## London'S Political Climate

Tony Travers LSE 

## Mayoral Election: 1St Preference Votes - 2000, 2004, 2008 And 2012

|                                           |     |     |     |                |
|-------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-----|----------------|
| 2000         2004        2008        2012 |     |     |     |                |
|                                           |     |     |     |                |
| Livingstone                               |     |     | 39  | 37             |
|                                           |     |     |     |                |
| Norris/Johnson                            |     | 27  | 29  | 43             |
|                                           |     |     |     |                |
| Kramer/Hughes/Paddick                     | 12  | 15  | 10  | 4              |
|                                           |     |     |     |                |
| Greens                                    |     |     |     | 2.2            |
| UKIP                                      |     |     |     | 1.0            |
| BNP                                       |     |     |     | 2.0            |
| Sioban Benita                             |     |     |     |                |

# Gla Elections: Assembly Seats Won - 2000, 2004, 2008 And 2012


              2000                         2004                        2008 

| Con     | 9    |     | 9    |         11    |     | 9    |
|---------|------|-----|------|---------------|-----|------|
| Lab     | 9    |     | 7    |               | 8   | 12   |
| LD      |      | 4   |      | 5             |     | 3    |
| Green   | 3    |     | 2    |               | 2   |      |
| UKIP    | 0    |     | 2    |               | 0   |      |
| BNP     | 0    |     | 0    |               | 1   |      |

## Gla Elections: Assembly 'List' Vote Share - 2000, 2004, 2008 And 2012

|          |     |     |     |     |     |          2000                          2004                          2008    |                2012    |
|----------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|
| Con      | 29  |     | 29  |     | 35  |                                                                              | 32                     |
| Lab      | 30  |     | 25  |     | 28  |                                                                              | 41                     |
| LD       | 15  |     | 17  |     | 11  |                                                                              | 6.8                    |
|          |     |     |     |     |     |                                                                              |                        |
| Green 11 |     | 8.6 |     | 8.4 |     | 8.5                                                                          |                        |
| UKIP     | 2.1 |     | 8.4 |     | 1.9 |                                                                              | 4.5                    |
| BNP      | 2.9 |     | 4.8 |     | 5.4 |                                                                              | 2.1                    |
| Oth      | 10  |     | 7   |     | 10  |                                                                              | 4.9                    |
|          |     |     |     |     |     |                                                                              |                        |

## Johnson/Livingstone Vs Con/Lab - Vote Share 2008 And 2012

|                    |     |     |     |     | %    |  %    |
|--------------------|-----|-----|-----|-----|------|-------|
| Johnson            |     |     |     | 43  | 44   | +1    |
| Conservatives      |     |     | 35  | 32  | -3   |       |
| Johnson 'lead'     |     |     | 8   | 12  | +4   |       |
|                    |     |     |     |     |      |       |
|                    |     |     |     |     |      |       |
| Livingstone        |     |     | 37  | 40  | +3   |       |
| Labour             |     |     |     | 28  | 41   | +13   |
| Livingstone 'lead' |     | 9   | -1  | -10 |      |       |
|                    |     |     |     |     |      |       |

## 'Swing' Con To Lab - 2008 To 2012



Mayoral:  
   1%  


Assembly:  
   8%  


England:  
 14% 
 
'Ken' effect, or Labour doing worse in London? 

## Vote Share - Assembly List And Borough

          2002             2004            2006            2008            2010             2012            Max              Min     
                      LB 
Ass 
LB                 Ass                LB                 Ass Con 
34 
31 
35 
37 
32 
32 
60 
31

           (1968)      (2004) 
 
Lab 
34 
25 
28 
28 
33 
41 
53 
25

           (1971)      (2004)


LD  
20 
18 
20 
14 
22 
  7 
25 
 4

           (1982)     (1971) 

             

 Conservative vote is resilient over time Labour vote is also resilient over time Lib Dem vote in 2012 was its worst-ever in any LB or Assembly elections 

## London: "A Labour City"? Conservatives   - General Election Vote Share (%)

|                                                                                           |     |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|
| London                                    UK                                London 'lead' |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1979                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1983                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1987                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1992                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1997                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 2001                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 2005                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 2010                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
|                                                                                           |     |

## London: "A Labour City"? Labour   - General Election Vote Share (%)

|                                                                                           |     |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|
| London                                    UK                                London 'lead' |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1979                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1983                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1987                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1992                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 1997                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 2001                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 2005                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
| 2010                                                                                      |     |
|                                                                                           |     |
|                                                                                           |     |

## Greater London Council/Greater London Authority Elections

 
                     GLC/Mayor winner           Following General Election winner 

| 1964     | Lab       |     |     | Lab            |
|----------|-----------|-----|-----|----------------|
| 1967     | Con       |     |     | Con            |
| 1970     | Con       |     |     | Con            |
| 1973     | Lab       |     |     | Lab            |
| 1977     | Con       |     |     | Con            |
| 1981     | Lab       |     |     | Con            |
| 2000     | Ind (Lab) |     | Lab |                |
| 2004     | Lab       |     |     | Lab            |
| 2008     | Con       |     |     | Con (minority) |
| 2012     | Con       |     |     | ?              |
|          |           |     |     |                |

## London'S Political Climate

Tony Travers LSE