Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin July 2013 to June 2014, England and Wales Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin 28 April 2016 

## Contents

Introduction ................................................................................. 
3 
Key findings 
................................................................................. 
5 
Main report 
................................................................................... 
7 
Overall - adult and juvenile offenders .........................................7 Males and Females 
....................................................................8 
Age ............................................................................................9 Index offence 
............................................................................ 
10 
Previous offences 
..................................................................... 
11 
Index disposal (sentence) type 
................................................. 
12 
Comparing the effectiveness of sentences 
............................... 
14 
Measuring proven reoffending 
................................................. 
17 
Contact points ........................................................................... 
19 
 

## Introduction

This quarterly bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders who were released from custody, received a noncustodial conviction at court, or received a caution in the period July 2013 to June 2014. It presents the proportion of offenders who reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, demographics, individual prisons, probation trusts, local authorities and youth offending teams. 

How is proven reoffending measured? 

A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year followup period that leads to a court conviction or caution in the one year follow-up or within a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the diagram below. 

enters cohort

| 01-Jul-13   | 31-Jan-14   | 30-Jun-14   | 31-Jan-15   | 31-Jul-15   | 31-Jan-16   |
|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|

An offender enters cohort if they are released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution in the period July 2013 to June 2014. Latest figures are provided with comparisons to July 2012 to June 2013, and the calendar year 2003 in order to highlight long-term trends. The full set of results is published separately in a set of Excel tables which provide headline Proven Reoffending statistics, and data tools which provide more detailed breakdowns. 

Annex A the final interim re-conviction estimates from the Peterborough Payment by Results pilots is published separately alongside this bulletin. 

 
Public consultation In October 2015, we published a public consultation on proposals to change the presentation of the data in reoffending statistics produced from October 2017. These changes will be the direct consequence of reforms made to the probation services through introducing the Offender Rehabilitation Act in February 2015. We have published a response to this consultation alongside this bulletin. 

 
Publication of National Probation Service Community Rehabilitation Companies and proven reoffending rates Probation Trusts ceased to exist on 1 June 2014, and were replaced with the National Probation Service (NPS) and 21 Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRC). On 1 February 2015, new providers took ownership of, and began running, the 21 Community Rehabilitation Companies. This publication in April covers the period from July 2013 to June 2014. It has a probation trust breakdown for the 11 months that these entities were operational. The July publication will provide proven reoffending rates by regions for offenders starting a court order and managed by NPS or CRCs in the period from June 2014 to September 2014. 

Early estimates Alongside the current proven reoffending tables, early estimates of proven reoffending for young offenders by Youth Offending Team (YOT) are published as management information. This provides an earlier indication of proven reoffending trends for young offenders. Under changes to the proven reoffending measure as announced in the accompanying consultation response. This measure is no longer relevant for future reporting, and therefore this will be the last set of early estimates in the series. It will, however, be replaced by an interim reoffending measure in the future, further details on the interim measure can be found in the consultation response. If you have any feedback, questions or requests for further information about this statistical bulletin, please direct them to statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk. 

## Key Findings

Overall - adult and juvenile offenders In July 2013 to June 2014 around 504,000 adult and juvenile offenders1 were cautioned, received a non-custodial conviction at court or released from custody. Around 131,000 of these offenders committed a proven reoffence within a year. This gives an overall proven reoffending rate of 26.0%; this rate has remained fairly stable, fluctuating between around 26% and 28% since 2003. Around 410,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year followup period, with those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.13 reoffences each. This is an increase of 2.8% compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 7.3% since 2003. The highest reoffending rate by age group is 39.1%, for offenders aged 10 to 14, the number of offenders in this cohort has fallen by around 81% since 2003. The reoffending rate for offenders aged 15 to 17 is second highest, at 37.4%. Less than 1% of all proven reoffences committed over the one year follow-up period were serious violent or sexual offences with very little change since 2003. 

Adult offenders Adult offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 24.9%, representing a small decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 2 percentage points since 2003, this rate has been fairly flat since 2003 fluctuating between around 24% and 27%. Around 361,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.13 reoffences each. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences have a higher reoffending rate than those with no previous offences - 46.1% compared to 7.8%. In the July 2013 to June 2014 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of 'Theft' had the highest proven reoffending rate of 42.7%. Those with the lowest rate had an index offence of 'Fraud' and reoffended at a rate of 10.4%. 

 
Adult offenders starting a court order The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence Order) was 33.6%, a fall of 6.3 percentage points since 2003, and a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months. Adult offenders released from custody The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody in July 2013 to June 2014 was 45.6%. This represents a fall of 5.9 percentage points since 2003 and a small increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months. Since 2004, the overall rate for those released from custody has remained relatively stable at around 45% to 50%; 
The rate for those released from short sentences has been consistently higher compared to those released from longer sentences. Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months reoffended at a rate of 59.7%, compared to 33.6% for those who served determinate sentences of 12 months or more. The trends for those released from short and long sentences have both remained broadly flat since 2005 and are consistent with the overall trend. 

Juvenile offenders Around 41,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in July 2013 to June 2014 and around 15,000 of them committed a reoffence. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 37.8%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous 12 months and an increase of 3.6 percentage points since 2003, the cohort has fallen by around 70.4% since 2003. Around 49,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.14 reoffences each, the similar to adults. Juvenile offenders with 11 or more previous offences have a higher reoffending rate than those with no previous offences - 73.6% compared to 24.5%. 

Juvenile offenders (disposal type) 
The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution, reprimand or warning was 30.7% an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous year and 5.2 percentage points from 2003. 

 
Around 1,200 juvenile offenders were released from custody in July 2013 to June 2014; their proven reoffending rate was 67.7%. In spite of the increase in the overall juvenile reoffending rate, the reoffending rate for juveniles released from custody continues to fall with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 7.1 percentage points since 2003. 

## Main Report

Overall - adult and juvenile offenders *(Table A1)* Adult offenders accounted for 92% (around 463,000) of the July 2013 to June 2014 offender cohort, and juvenile offenders accounted for 8% (around 41,000). A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. 

 
 
Around 115,000 of all **adult offenders** were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 24.9% which represents a small decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. Since 2003, there has been little change in this rate, as illustrated in Figure 1. Over this time it has ranged from around 24% to 27% and since 2004 it has remained steady at around 25%. 

The proven reoffending rate for **juvenile offenders** is higher, and in the last 
12 months it has increased from 36.6% for the year ending June 2013 to 37.8% for the year ending June 2014. While the juvenile reoffending rate has seen an increase of 3.6 percentage points since 2003, the cohort has fallen by around 70%. The average number of previous offences per juvenile offender was 2.53 in July 2013 to June 2014 and 1.83 in 2003. 

 

## 

Males and Females **(Table A2)** In the July 2013 to June 2014 cohort, 82% were male and 18% were female - a split that has changed little since 2003. Male offenders from the July 2013 
to June 2014 cohort reoffended at a higher rate of 27.5% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 19.1%. Both rates have remained broadly stable since 2003 (Figure 2). Between 2003 and July 2013 to June 2014, the proven reoffending rate for male and female offenders decreased by 2.5 and 2.4 percentage points respectively. 

A summary report was published by Ministry of Justice in November 2014 which related to the experience of women in the criminal justice system.

Age *(Table A3)* The highest reoffending rate by age group is 39.1%, for offenders aged 10 to 14, this cohort has fallen by around 81% since 2003. The age group with the second highest reoffending rate was for those offenders aged 15 to 17, at 37.4%. Figure 3 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with increasing age. Since 2003 the distribution of proven reoffending by age group has changed. Compared to 2003, the proven reoffending rate has increased for 10 to 17 year olds and for those aged 35 and over, but has fallen for offenders aged 18 to 34.  
 
Index offence *(Table A4a,b)* The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the index offence. In the July 2013 to June 2014 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of 'Theft' had the highest proven reoffending rate of 42.7%. This was followed by those with an index offence of 'Robbery' with a rate of 36.4%. Those with the lowest rate had an index offence of 'Fraud' and reoffended at a rate of 10.4%. Additionally, with a fall of 10.8 
percentage points, the 'Fraud' index offence category saw the largest decrease between 2003 and July 2013 to June 2014. In contrast, the largest increase of 6.7 percentage points over the same period occurred for those with an index offence of 'Public Order' with a reoffending rate of 30.0%. In the July 2013 to June 2014 cohort, juvenile offenders with an index offence of 'Miscellaneous crimes against society'2 had the highest proven reoffending rate of 45.2%. Those with the lowest rate had a 'sexual' index offence and reoffended at a rate of 12.4%. The 'Summary Motoring' index offence category had the largest decrease between 2003 and July 2013 to June 2014 with a fall of 17.3 percentage points. The largest increase over the same period occurred for those with an index offence of 'Theft', up by 9.4 percentage points. 

                                                 
2 Miscellaneous crimes against society comprises a variety of offences. The largest volume offences include: handling stolen goods, threat to commit criminal damage and perverting the course of justice. 

 
Previous offences *(Table A5a, b)* Generally, offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven reoffending than those with fewer previous offences and this is true for both adults and juveniles. In the July 2013 to June 2014 cohort, for adults, the proven reoffending rates ranged from 7.8% for offenders with no previous offences to 46.1% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. For juveniles these figures were 24.5% and 73.6% respectively. Between 2003 and July 2013 to June 2014 the proven reoffending rate for adults who had committed 11 or more previous offences decreased by 5.5 percentage points. For juveniles who had committed 11 or more previous offences, and over the same period, the proven reoffending rate decreased by 8.7 percentage points. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences represented just under a third of all adult offenders in the July 2013 to June 2014 cohort, but committed more than two thirds of all adult proven reoffences. For juvenile offenders this group made up only 6% of all juvenile offenders, but committed just over a sixth (17%) of all juvenile proven reoffences. 

Index disposal (sentence) type *(Table C1a, b)* The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their index offence. For the Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, this is defined as custody, court order, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge, or caution. 

Adult offenders released from custody or commencing a court order Between July 2013 and June 2014, around 171,000 adult offenders were released from custody or commenced a court order. Around 60,000 of these offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 35.2%. Between 2003 and 2005 this rate fell by 4.1 percentage points and since 2005, it has fallen by 3.2 percentage points. 

Adult offenders commencing a court order Between July 2013 and June 2014, around 123,000 adult offenders started a court order and around 41,000 of these (33.6%) committed a proven reoffence within a year. This represents a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months, and a fall of 6.3 percentage points since 2003. The Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 introduced Suspended Sentence Orders (SSOs) without requirements attached. Offenders sentenced to such SSOs are not supervised by the Probation Service. There have been increasing numbers of such orders given since they were introduced in December 2012. The reoffending rate for these SSOs without requirements is 36.3%. The reoffending rate for SSOs with requirements is 30.1%. 

These figures should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of different types of SSOs, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. Please refer to the chapter 'Comparing the effectiveness of sentences' on page 17 for more details. 

Adult offenders released from custody Between July 2013 and June 2014, around 57,000 adult offenders were released from custody and around 26,000 of these (45.6%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. The rate has decreased by 5.9 percentage points since 2003, and has increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 45.6% since the same period 12 months ago. Just under half of the adult offenders released from custody in July 2013 to June 2014 were released from a custodial sentence of less than 12 months. These offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 59.7% compared to 33.6% for those who served sentences of 12 months or more. The rate for those released from short sentences has been consistently higher compared to those released from long sentences, as shown in Figure 6. However, the reoffending rate for those released from sentences of more than 10 years saw an increase between year ending June 2009 and 2012, and now stands at 16.5%.  
 
 
Juvenile offenders given a reprimand, warning or youth caution (Table C1b) 
 
The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 30.7% an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous year and 5.2 
percentage points from 2003. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and replaced with youth cautions. Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A youth caution may be given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to prosecute. 

Juvenile offenders released from custody *(Table C1b)* The reoffending rate for juveniles released from custody continues to fall. In July 2013 to June 2014 around 1,200 juvenile offenders were released from custody and around 800 of these (67.7%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This represents a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and fall of 7.1 percentage points since 2003. Data are rounded to the nearest 1,000; except for indeterminate sentences which are rounded to the nearest 100. 

 
Comparing the effectiveness of sentences Proven reoffending rates by index disposal (sentence type) should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. The 'The impact of short custodial sentences, Community Orders and Suspended Sentence Orders on reoffending' compares like for like offenders which enables a more reliable comparison of proven reoffending rates between offenders receiving different sentences. Short-term custody (less than 12 months in prison, without supervision on release) for the 2008 to 2011 cohorts was consistently associated with higher rates of proven reoffending than community orders and suspended sentence orders ('court orders'). 

Over a one year follow-up period, a higher proportion of people reoffended having been sentenced to short term custody than other, similar people given: 

 a community order, of 3 percentage points higher; 
 
 a suspended sentence order, of 7 percentage points higher. 
Short term custody was associated with up to one more reoffence per person on average than both community and suspended sentence orders. In the '2013 Compendium of Reoffending Statistics and Analysis', noncustodial sentences were also compared: 

 Suspended sentence orders had a lower reoffending rate than 
community orders (3.2 percentage points for 2010); 
 
 Community orders had a higher reoffending rate than fines, though the 
difference was small (0.9 percentage points in 2010); 
 
 Conditional discharges had a lower reoffending rate than: Community 
orders (5.1 percentage points for 2010); and Fines (5.5 percentage points for 2010). 


Adult offenders by individual prison (Prison/youth secure accommodation/probation trust data tool) 
Among prisons that released 30 or more offenders in July 2013 to June 2014, proven reoffending rates varied considerably from 10.9% to 78.7% for offenders with a sentence of less than 12 months and from 1.2% to 56.9% for offenders with a sentence of 12 months or more. A large part of this variability reflects the mix of offenders who are held in different prisons and, therefore, comparisons between prisons should not be made using these raw reoffending rates. 

 
Adult offenders by probation trust (Prison/youth secure accommodation/probation trust data tool) This publication covers the period from July 2013 to June 2014. It has a probation trust breakdown, but not an NPS/CRC breakdown, as it only covers one month of these organisations being operational. Proven reoffending rates for these offenders are presented by probation trust in the Prison/youth secure accommodation/probation trust data tool. This takes the first court order from within each probation trust as the start point for measuring reoffending and subsequent events as proven reoffences. Proven reoffending rates varied considerably between probation trusts from 29% to 43.6%. A large part of this variability reflects the mix of offenders who are given a court order and, therefore, comparisons between probation trusts should not be made using these raw reoffending rates. 


## Measuring Proven Reoffending

There is no agreed international standard for measuring and reporting reoffending. An offender's journey through the criminal justice system can be a complex one; offenders can appear on numerous occasions. Measuring true reoffending is complex. Official records are taken from either the police or courts, but they will underestimate the true level of reoffending because only a proportion of crime is reported and/or detected and not all crimes are recorded on one central system. Furthermore, other methods for measuring reoffending, such as self-report studies, which do not identify the offender, are likely to be unreliable. Therefore, this report aims to estimate proven reoffending for a specified group of offenders using data mainly from the Police National Computer. Since this report measures reoffending on a consistent basis across all groups, it is possible to tailor analysis of reoffending to meet specific requirements. 

The headline measure This is the overall measure of reoffending and is presented for different demographic groups and by offence. To provide this overview of proven reoffending, offenders are tracked and their proven reoffending behaviour is recorded, taking the **first event**3 in the **relevant period** as the start point and subsequent events as proven reoffences. Users should refer to tables A1 to A6, B1 to B4 and the proven reoffending overview data tool for these statistics. 

Index disposal In this measure offenders are tracked and their proven reoffending behaviour is recorded **within** each disposal (caution, court order, release from custody, etc.) Users should refer to tables C1 to C2b for these statistics and the proven reoffending by index disposal data tool for these statistics. 

 
Prison/Probation Trust In this measure offenders are tracked and their proven reoffending behaviour is recorded **within** each operational unit (prison or probation trust) taking the first event **within** each as the start point and subsequent events as reoffences. 

Probation Trusts ceased to exist on 1 June 2014, and were replaced with the National Probation Service and 21 Community Rehabilitation Companies. However, since the reporting period for this bulletin covers July 2013 to June 2014, we have continued to publish statistics at Probation Trust level in the accompanying tables. 

                                                 
Early estimates An early estimate of proven reoffending for young offenders– this uses a shorter follow-up and waiting period, but otherwise measures reoffending in exactly the same way as the headline measure. This provides an earlier indication of proven reoffending trends for young offenders and is published as management information alongside the accompanying proven reoffending tables. 

Reconviction measure - Payment by results A reconviction measure for use by payment by results pilots - this is the measure used in the prison pilots at HMP Peterborough and HMP Doncaster which measures court convictions. For more details, please refer to Annex A. 

For a more detailed explanation, please see the accompanying 'Definitions and Measurement' document. 

Consultation This quarterly bulletin was developed in response to a consultation in late 2010 and early 2011 by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) on "Improvements to Ministry of Justice Statistics". 

Users The contents of this bulletin will be of interest to Government policy makers, the agencies responsible for offender management at both national and local levels, providers, practitioners and others who want to understand more about proven reoffending. In particular there are two MoJ impact indicators which will be monitored using results from this bulletin: 

 Adult and juvenile reoffending - the percentage of adult and juvenile 
offenders who reoffend. 
 
 The percentage of adults released from custody who reoffend. 
 Government policy makers also use these statistics to develop, monitor and evaluate key elements of its policies including those on payments by results, legal aid and sentencing guidelines. Offender management agencies use these statistics to gain a local understanding of the criminal justice system, understand performance and to highlight best practice. Key agencies include: the National Offender Management Service, the Youth Justice Board, private and voluntary sector providers of prison and probation services and local authorities. 


## Contact Points

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office: Tel: 020 3334 3536 Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to: 
Nick Mavron Ministry of Justice Justice Statistics Analytical Services 7th Floor 102 Petty France London SW1H 9AJ General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed to: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk General information about the official statistics system of the United Kingdom is available from http://statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/ukstatistical-system Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk. 

## © Crown Copyright 2015

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