## Official Statistics

Annex A 
Interim reconviction figures for Peterborough Payment by Results pilot Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin 28 April 2016 

## Annex A Interim Reconviction Figures For Peterborough Payment By Results Pilot Background

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published "Breaking the Cycle: Effective Punishment, Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders" in December 2010. This Green Paper included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series of initial 'payment by results' (PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements by delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost. The MoJ carried out two prison based PbR pilots in HMP Doncaster and HMP Peterborough. The PbR pilot operating in HMP Peterborough began on 9 September 2010 and results for cohort 1 of this pilot were determined by an independent assessor and published on 
7 August 20141. The final set of results for cohort 2 will also be determined by an independent assessor and will be published in the summer of 2016. A methodology report for assessing the impact of the pilot will be published alongside the final results for cohort 2. The PbR pilot that operated in HMP Doncaster started in October 2011 and closed at the end of 2014. Results for cohort 1 were published in August 20141 and results for cohort 2 were published in July 20152. This report presents the final set of interim results for the pilot in HMP Peterborough. The results are based on a 12 month reconviction measure which counts offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further six month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). 

Methodology Offenders entered the PbR pilot after their first eligible release from Peterborough prison within the cohort period. Cohort 2 contains all eligible offenders released between 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014. The prison pilots used a 12 month reconviction measure which differs from the National Statistics proven reoffending measure. The key difference is that reconvictions only count offences for which the offender was convicted at court, whereas the National Statistics proven reoffending measure also includes out of court disposals (cautions). The time periods, however, used for both measures are the same - offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the proven reoffending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further six month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). 

The Peterborough pilot included male offenders aged 18 or over released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months only. There are a number of other differences between the pilot and the National Statistics proven reoffending measure in terms of which offenders are counted within the cohort. These differences are set out in Table A1 of the *Appendix*. 

 
Final (outcome) reconviction measures for the prison pilot The outcome measure is the frequency of reconviction events3 (based on offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court within those 12 months or a further six month period). This is often referred to as a frequency measure. As with cohort 1, success of cohort 2 will be determined by comparison with a control group (of comparable offenders from across the country). Results for cohort 2 will be available in the summer of 2016 and will be determined by an independent assessor. Users should, therefore, be aware that the figures presented here provide our best assessment of change at this point in time. 

Interim figures The cohort 2 figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month reconviction figures for all eligible offenders released from Peterborough in the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period. These are the full measurement periods, but they do not constitute the final results on which the outcome for cohort 2 will be assessed. Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of similar offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the frequency of reconviction events is 10.0% lower for the Peterborough cohort 2 than for the control group, or 7.5% lower across Peterborough cohort 1 and cohort 2 combined. It is not possible to replicate that comparison for these interim figures. Instead, in order to provide some context for the Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local4 
prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster5. 

| Peterborough   | National local prisons   |
|----------------|--------------------------|
| Discharge      |                          |
| period         |                          |
| Cohort         |                          |
| size           |                          |
| Reconviction   |                          |
| rate           |                          |
| Frequency of   |                          |
| reconviction   |                          |
| events per 100 |                          |
| offenders      |                          |
| Cohort         |                          |
| size           |                          |
| Reconviction   |                          |
| rate           |                          |
| Frequency of   |                          |
| reconviction   |                          |
| events per     |                          |
| 100 offenders  |                          |
| July07-July09  | 1,282                    |
| 38,592         |                          |
| 55.5%          |                          |
| 140            |                          |
| July08-July10  | 1,212                    |
| 40,027         |                          |
| 54.3%          |                          |
| 141            |                          |
| July09-July11  | 1,055                    |
| 38,579         |                          |
| 54.4%          |                          |
| 148            |                          |
| July10-July12  | 1,043                    |
| 38,062         |                          |
| 54.7%          |                          |
| 153            |                          |
| July11-July13  |                          |
| 1,028          |                          |
| 50.4%          |                          |
| 137            | 38,198                   |
| 54.1%          |                          |
| 155            |                          |
| July12-July14  | 997                      |
| 51.6%          |                          |
| 149            |                          |
| 36,170         |                          |
| 55.1%          |                          |
| 160            |                          |

 Table 1 shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 2 July 2012 and 
1 July 2014 (the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period), there were an average of 149 
reconviction events per 100 offenders. This shows a decrease of 2.5%6 compared to an average of 153 reconviction events per 100 offenders released from Peterborough between July 2008 and July 20107. 

 
Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 13.8%8 from 141 to 160 reconviction events per 100 offenders. 

These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in time. The final results will be available in the summer of 2016. 

## Appendix To Annex A Table A1: Comparison Of Peterborough Pbr Reconviction And National Statistics Proven Reoffending Measures

|                               |
|-------------------------------|
| of proven reoffending (for    |
| any prison)                   |
| The cohort                    |
| All offenders who were        |
| released from custody, over a |
| 12 month period, regardless   |
| of sentence length. Excludes  |
| those in prison for breach    |
| The period to measure         |
| reconvictions/reoffending     |
| 12 months for offences to     |
| occur and a further six       |
| months for offences to be     |
| proven (through conviction at |
| court or a caution)           |
| The headline measure          |
| Proportion of offenders who   |
| commit one or more proven     |
| reoffences                    |
| What counts                   |
| Offences committed in the 12  |
| months following release from |
| prison, and proven by         |
| conviction at court or a      |
| caution either in those 12    |
| months or in a further six    |
| months                        |
Peterborough PbR prison pilot reconviction measures 
Male offenders aged 18 or over released from Peterborough prison between 9 September 2010 and 1 July 2012 (cohort 1) or 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014 
(cohort 2), after serving 
sentences of less than 12 months. Differences from National Statistics:  
Excludes those who serve 
the whole of their custodial sentence on remand 
 
Excludes foreign national 
offenders recorded as having been deported on release from prison 
 
Includes those in prison for 
breach 
 
12 months for offences to occur and a further six months for offences to be reconvicted Note: excludes cautions Frequency of reconviction events 
Any reconviction event (sentencing occasion) relating to offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further six months Note: excludes cautions 

## Ogrs Score Data

Reoffending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example offenders with a large number of previous convictions are more likely to reoffend than those with fewer previous convictions, and changes in reconviction rates over time can be related to changes in the mix of offenders being worked with rather than a real change in the level of their reoffending. 

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)9 is a predictor of reoffending based on age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors known to be associated with the likelihood of reoffending. OGRS scores range from 0 to 1, with a lower score representing a lower likelihood of reoffending. The scores can be used to compare the relative likelihood of reoffending either over time or between different groups of offenders, with a higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less likely to reoffend. For example, if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this means that Offender Group A are less likely to reoffend. Table A2 shows the average OGRS scores for each of the offender groups that are measured in table 1 above. These include offenders released from Peterborough prison as well as those for the equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are approximate because a small portion of offenders from each group are not included due to some data being unavailable. 

offenders released during the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period 
 

Average OGRS score
Discharge period
Peterborough
National
July07-July09
0.49
0.51
July08-July10
0.49
0.51
July09-July11
0.49
0.51
July10-July12
0.48
0.51
July11-July13
0.49
0.51
July12-July14
0.50
0.52
 

## 

| Prison           | Start date of    |
|------------------|------------------|
| pilot            |                  |
| Number of        |                  |
| eligible         |                  |
| participants for |                  |
| Cohort 1         |                  |
| Number of        |                  |
| eligible         |                  |
| participants for |                  |
| Cohort 2         |                  |
| 9 September      |                  |
| 2010             |                  |
| 1,034            |                  |
| 10               |                  |
|                  | 997              |
| 11               |                  |
|                  | Peterborough     |
| Social Impact    |                  |
| Bond (SIB)       |                  |

## Contact Points

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office: Tel: 020 3334 3536 
Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to: 
Nick Mavron Ministry of Justice Justice Statistics Analytical Services 7th Floor 102 Petty France London SW1H 9AJ Tel: 020 3334 3972 General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed to: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk General information about the official statistics system of the United Kingdom is available from http://statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/uk-statistical-system. Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk. 

## © Crown Copyright 2015

This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: 
psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk.