Proven Re-offending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin October 2009 to September 2010, England and Wales 
 
Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin 24 July 2012 

## Contents

 
Introduction ......................................................................................................3 
 
Executive summary..........................................................................................7 List of quarterly tables....................................................................................20 
Annex A: Payment by results.........................................................................23 
 
Annex B: How the measure of proven re-offending has changed and the effect 
of these changes............................................................................................25 
 
Annex C: Glossary of terms ...........................................................................42 Explanatory notes ..........................................................................................49 
 
Contact points................................................................................................50 

## Introduction

The Proven Re-offending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin provides key statistics on proven re-offending in England and Wales. It gives proven re-offending figures for offenders, who were released from custody, received a noncustodial conviction at court, received a caution, reprimand, warning or tested positive for opiates or cocaine between October 2009 and September 2010. Proven re-offending is defined as any offence committed in a one year followup period and receiving a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within a further six month waiting period. This is referred to as a proven re-offence. This is the fourth quarterly bulletin in a new series. This series merges six previous measures of re-offending which were split across many publications into a single coherent overview of proven re-offending for the first time. It is a significant step forward for measuring re-offending as for the first time users can: 

 obtain figures for the total number of proven re-offenders in an area 
and for the total number of offences they commit in a year; 
 
 see proven re-offending rates for adults, juveniles, drug-misusing and 
prolific offenders measured on a consistent basis both nationally and locally; and 
 
 measure individual prison and probation level re-offending on a 
consistent basis. 
 This quarterly bulletin presents the proportion of offenders who re-offend (proven re-offending rate) and the number of proven re-offences those offenders commit by age group, gender, ethnicity, criminal history and offence type. Also included are proven re-offending rates for serious proven reoffending, different types of offenders (e.g. adult, juvenile, drug-misusing and prolific and other priority offenders); different types of sentence; and by individual prison, probation trust and youth offending team. Latest figures are provided with comparisons to the previous 12 months (October 2008 to September 2009) and the year 2000 in order to highlight long-term trends; 2000 is the earliest year for which proven re-offending data exist on a comparable basis. The full set of results is provided separately in Excel tables at: 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/proven-re-offending The accompanying 'Definitions and Measurement' document, which is available at the same link, provides more detailed information. 

Measuring proven re-offending There is no agreed international standard for measuring and reporting reoffending. An offender's journey through the criminal justice system can be a complex one; offenders can appear on numerous occasions. Measuring true re-offending is difficult. Official records are taken from either the police or courts, but they will underestimate the true level of re-offending because only a proportion of crime is detected and not all crimes are recorded on one central system. Furthermore, other methods for measuring reoffending, such as self report studies, are likely to be unreliable. Therefore, this report aims to measure proven re-offending. 

Since re-offending is now measured on a consistent basis across all groups, it is possible to tailor analysis of re-offending to meet specific requirements. This quarterly bulletin and the accompanying 'Early estimates of proven reoffending' present measures on four different levels to meet users' needs: 

 The headline measure - this is the main measure of re-offending and is 
presented for different demographic groups and by offence. To provide 
this **overview of proven re-offending**, offenders are tracked and their proven re-offending behaviour is recorded, taking the **first event**1 in the 
relevant period as the start point and subsequent events as proven reoffences. 
 
 A headline measure where the first event is related to criminal justice 
and offender management - this provides a realistic and relevant view 
of proven re-offending by disposal (sentence type), prison and 
probation trust. Offenders are tracked and their proven re-offending 
behaviour is recorded **within** each disposal (caution, court order, 
discharge from prison, etc.) or operational unit (prison or probation 
trust) taking the first event **within** each as the start point and 
subsequent events as re-offences. 
 
 Early estimates of proven re-offending - these use shorter follow-up 
and waiting periods, but otherwise measure re-offending in exactly the same way as the headline measure. This is intended to provide offender managers with an earlier indication of proven re-offending trends so they can adjust or build on offender management operational policy. 
 
 A re-conviction measure for use by payment by results - this is the 
measure used in the prison pilots since court convictions are more closely associated with costs to the criminal justice system. For more details, please refer to Annex A. 
For a more detailed explanation, please see the accompanying 'Definitions and Measurement' document at: 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/proven-re-offending 
 
Consultation This quarterly bulletin has been developed in response to a consultation in late 2010 and early 2011 by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) on "Improvements to Ministry of Justice Statistics". The main points from the consultation that affect this publication can be found in Annex B. 

Users The contents of this bulletin will be of interest to Government policy makers, the agencies responsible for offender management at both national and local levels, providers, practitioners and others who want to understand more about proven re-offending. 

In particular there are two MoJ impact indicators2 which will be monitored using results from this bulletin: 

 Adult and juvenile re-offending - the percentage of adult and juvenile 
offenders who re-offend, measured quarterly by local authority. 
 
 The percentage of adults released from custody who re-offend, 
measured annually by prison. 
 Government policy makers also use these statistics to develop, monitor and evaluate key elements of its policies including those on payments by results, legal aid, sentencing guidelines and drug and alcohol policies. Offender management agencies use these statistics to gain a local understanding of the criminal justice system, understand performance and to highlight best practice. Key agencies include: the National Offender Management Service, the Youth Justice Board, private and voluntary sector providers of prison and probation services and local authorities. As proven re-offending is related to the characteristics of offenders, the actual rate of proven re-offending will depend, in part, on the characteristics of offenders coming into the system. This actual rate provides users with sufficient information on what the level of re-offending is (e.g. in their local area) and how it is changing over time. This bulletin also presents an adjusted proven re-offending rate to control for differences in the composition of the offender group which can be used by those who want to understand how changes in types of offenders coming through the justice system drives reoffending. 

                                                 
This is the fourth bulletin in a new series of publications produced in response to a consultation. The MoJ has addressed the main issues from the consultation. Furthermore, the 2012 Compendium of re-offending statistics and analysis, which was published by the MoJ on 12 July 2012, includes additional analyses on proven re-offending rates using two, five and nine year follow-up periods. It also presents individual Probation Trust proven reoffending rates for offenders released from prison on licence. These results are available at: 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/compendium-of-reoffendingstatistics-and-analysis This bulletin is published alongside two inter-related bulletins:  
 

 
Offender Management Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, January to 
March 2012: provides key statistics relating to offenders who are in 
prison or under Probation Service supervision. It covers flows into these services (receptions into prison or probation starts) and flows out (discharges from prison or probation terminations) as well as the caseload of both services at specific points in time.  
 
 
Safety in Custody Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, January to March 
2012: provides statistics on death, self harm and assault incidents 
whilst in prison custody.  
 Taken together, these publications present users with a more coherent overview of offender management, re-offending among both adults and young people and the safety of offenders whilst in prison custody. 

If you have any feedback, questions or requests for further information about this statistical bulletin, please direct them to the appropriate contact given at the end of this report. 

## Executive Summary

This report provides key statistics on proven re-offending in England and Wales. It gives proven re-offending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, received a caution, reprimand, warning or tested positive for opiates or cocaine between October 2009 and September 2010. Proven re-offending is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period and receiving a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up. Following this one year period, a further six month waiting period is allowed for cases to progress through the courts. 

In the 12 months ending September 2010, around 660,000 offenders3 were cautioned4, convicted (excluding immediate custodial sentences) or released from custody5. Around 170,000 of these offenders committed a proven reoffence within a year. This gives a one-year proven re-offending rate of 26.5 per cent, which represents no change when compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 1.3 percentage points since 2000 (Table 1). These re-offenders committed an average of 2.85 re-offences each. In total, this represents around 500,000 re-offences of which 80.3 per cent were committed by adults and 19.7 per cent were committed by juveniles (Table 1). 

 54.5 per cent (around 270,000) were committed by re-offenders with 11 
or more previous offences (Table 6c). 
 
 0.7 per cent (around 3,200) were serious violent/sexual proven reoffences (Table 8). 
 
 5.2 per cent (around 26,000) were committed by re-offenders on the 
Prolific and other Priority Offender Programme (PPO) (Table 16). 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/proven-re-offending. This means that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in the Offender Management Quarterly Statistics Bulletin available at www.justice.gov.uk/publications/statistics-and-data/prisons-and-probation/oms-quarterly.htm. 

and the Criminal Justice Statistics report available at www.justice.gov.uk/publications/statistics-and-data/criminal-justice/criminal-justicestatistics.htm 
4 Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles 
5 Also includes those who tested positive for opiates or cocaine Key trends in proven re-offending 
 
Adult offenders 
 
Around 560,000 adult offenders3 were cautioned4, convicted or released from custody5 between October 2009 and September 2010. Just under 140,000 of them committed a re-offence. This gives a proven re-offending rate of 25.1 per cent, which represents a slight fall of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 1.1 percentage points since 2000 (Table 1). However, compared to 2000, the offenders in October 2009 to September 2010 had characteristics which meant they were more likely to re-offend. This means that, after controlling for offender characteristics, the decrease was larger at 3.2 percentage points (Table 1). The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 2.85, a rise of 1.2 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 16.1 per cent compared to 2000 (Table 1). Looking at specific groups within the cohort: 

 The proven re-offending rate for those released from custody was 47.9 
per cent, a rise of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous 12 
months and a fall of 1.5 percentage points since 2000. The average 
number of re-offences committed per re-offender for this group was 
4.10, an increase of 1.6 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 12.3 per cent since 2000 (Table 18a). 
 
 The proven re-offending rate for those starting a court order 
(Community Order or Suspended Sentence Order) was 34.0 per cent, 
down 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and 
down 3.9 percentage points since 2000. The average number of reoffences per re-offender was 3.16, up 1.7 per cent compared to the 
previous 12 months and down 18.3 per cent since 2000 (Table 18a). 
 
 The proven re-offending rate for drug-misusing offenders (all offenders 
who are given drug orders as part of their sentence or test positive for 
opiates upon arrest) was 57.3 per cent, up 2.3 percentage points 
compared to the previous 12 months (Table 15). 
 
Juvenile offenders 
 
Around 100,000 juvenile offenders3 were cautioned4, convicted or released from custody5 between October 2009 and September 2010. Around 34,000 of them committed a re-offence. This gives a proven re-offending rate of 34.8 per cent. This represents an increase in the rate of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a rise of 1.1 percentage points since 2000 (Table 1). 

However, users should be aware that the cohort has changed considerably over the period since 2000 and is 29.2 per cent smaller than in 2000 and is comprised of offenders whose characteristics mean they are more likely to reoffend than those in the 2000 cohort. In order to account for this, we can control for changes in offender characteristics to give a more consistent view of changes over time. After controlling for these changes, the proven reoffending rate has actually decreased by 1.7 percentage points since 2000 (Table 1). The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 2.85, an increase of 3.8 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 14.3 per cent since 2000 (Table 1). 

12 month period and 2000 
 

2000
12 months 
ending 
September 
2009
Percentage change
2000 to 12 months
ending
September 20101
Percentage change
12 months ending September 
2009 to 12 months ending 
September 20101 
12 months 
ending 
September 
2010
All offenders
Proportion of offenders who re-offend (%)
27.9
26.5
26.5
-1.3pp ↓
0.0pp ↓
Average number of re-offences per re-offender
3.37
2.80
2.85
-15.6% ↓
1.8% ↑
Proportion of offenders who re-offend - Adjusted to baseline2 (%)
25.5
27.1
27.0
-
-
Average number of re-offences per offender
0.94
0.74
0.75
-19.7% ↓
1.9% ↑
Number of re-offences
579,770
523,497
495,670
-14.5% ↓
-5.3% ↓
Number of re-offenders
171,935
187,206
174,172
1.3% ↑
-7.0% ↓
Number of offenders in cohort
617,024
706,981
656,819
6.4% ↑
-7.1% ↓
Adult offenders
Proportion of offenders who re-offend (%)
26.2
25.1
25.1
-1.1pp ↓
-0.1pp ↓
Average number of re-offences per re-offender
3.39
2.81
2.85
-16.1% ↓
1.2% ↑
Proportion of offenders who re-offend - Adjusted to baseline2 (%)
23.6
25.7
25.6
-
-
Average number of re-offences per offender
0.89
0.71
0.71
-19.6% ↓
0.9% ↑
Number of re-offences
423,989
409,055
398,110
-6.1% ↓
-2.7% ↓
Number of re-offenders
125,023
145,467
139,891
11.9% ↑
-3.8% ↓
Number of offenders in cohort
477,698
578,776
558,223
16.9% ↑
-3.6% ↓
Juvenile offenders
Proportion of offenders who re-offend (%)
33.7
32.6
34.8
1.1pp ↑
2.2pp ↑
Average number of re-offences per re-offender
3.32
2.74
2.85
-14.3% ↓
3.8% ↑
Proportion of offenders who re-offend - Adjusted to baseline2 (%)
32.0
33.3
34.8
-
-
Average number of re-offences per offender
1.12
0.89
0.99
-11.5% ↓
10.8% ↑
Number of re-offences
155,781
114,442
97,560
-37.4% ↓
-14.8% ↓
Number of re-offenders
46,912
41,739
34,281
-26.9% ↓
-17.9% ↓
Number of offenders in cohort
139,326
128,205
98,596
-29.2% ↓
-23.1% ↓

1. pp = percentage point and percentage changes may not add up due to rounding of raw figures 2. See the definitions and measurement paper for an explanation on how to use and interpret the baseline rate

## Groups With The Biggest Changes In The Proven Re-Offending Rate Since 2000 Biggest Reductions:

 Adult females (a fall of 2.3 percentage points) (Table 2).  21 to 24 year olds (a fall of 3.0 percentage points) (Table 3).  Adults with seven to 10 previous offences (a fall of 3.1 percentage 
points) (Table 6a).  Juveniles with seven to 10 previous offences (a fall of 4.8 percentage 
points) (Table 6b).  Adults who received Court Orders (a fall 3.9 percentage points) (Table 
18a). 
 Adults who received custodial sentences of one to four years (a fall of 
7.1 percentage points) (Table 19).  Juveniles who received a custodial sentence (a fall of 6.8 percentage 
points) (Table 18b). 

## Biggest Increases:

 45 to 49 year olds (a rise of 4.0 percentage points) (Table 3).  Adults who received custodial sentences of less than 12 months (a rise 
of 3.1 percentage points) (Table 19). 
 
 Juveniles who received a community penalty (a rise of 5.6 percentage 
points) (Table 18b). 
 
All offenders Proven re-offending by age Between October 2009 and September 2010, as in previous years, 15 to 17 year olds had the highest proven re-offending rate at 35.9 per cent. The proven re-offending rate falls with increasing age (after those aged 15 to 17) 
as shown in Figure E1 (Table 3). Compared to 2000, the proven re-offending rate for the 12 months ending September 2010 rose for 10 to 14 year olds and for those aged 30 and over, but fell for offenders aged 15 to 29 (Table 3). The largest decrease in the average number of re-offences per re-offender was among those aged 21 to 24, which fell from 3.61 in 2000 to 2.73 in the 12 
months ending September 2010 (a fall of 24.4 per cent) (Table 3). 

 
Proven re-offending by criminal history Offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven re-offending and this is true for both adults and juveniles. The proven re-offending rates range from 11.4 per cent for offenders with no previous offences to 47.9 per cent for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Compared to 2000, the largest decrease in the proven re-offending rate for the 12 months ending September 2010 was among offenders who had one to two previous offences (a fall of 4.2 percentage points) (Table 6c). 

Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences represented 28.0 per cent of all adult offenders in October 2009 to September 2010. Around 73,000 
offenders in this group committed 63.2 per cent of all adult proven re-offences (Table 6a). For juveniles, there were around 5,000 offenders with 11 or more previous offences and they had a proven re-offending rate of 77.8 per cent. This group make up only 5.4 per cent of juvenile offenders, but committed almost a fifth (19.1 per cent) of all juvenile proven re-offences (around 19,000) (Table 6b). 

Proven re-offending by index offence The offence that leads to an offender being included in the relevant year is called the index offence. In October 2009 to September 2010, as in most previous years, domestic burglary had the highest proven re-offending rate at 48.4 per cent, and sexual (child) offences the lowest at 9.9 per cent. The largest decrease between 2000 and October 2009 to September 2010 in the proven re-offending rate was for soliciting prostitution with a decrease of 19.9 
percentage points, followed by motoring offences with a decrease of 11.6 
percentage points (Table 5c). 

Adult proven re-offending In October 2009 to September 2010, there were around 560,000 adult offenders3. Just under 140,000 of these offenders were proven to have committed a re-offence within a year. This gives a one year proven reoffending rate of 25.1 per cent, down slightly from the previous 12 months by 
0.1 percentage points (Table 1). These re-offenders committed an average of 2.85 re-offences, up from 2.81 in the previous 12 months (Table 1). Overall there has been a 1.1 percentage point decrease in the proven reoffending rate since 2000 (from 26.2 to 25.1 per cent). However, compared to 
2000, the offenders in October 2009 to September 2010 had characteristics which meant they were more likely to re-offend. This means that, after controlling for offender characteristics, the decrease was larger at 3.2 percentage points (Table 1). 

1. Data are not available for 2001 due to a problem with archived data on Court Orders 2. Quarterly data are only available from July 2005 onwards
1. Data are not available for 2001 due to a problem with archived data on Court Orders 2. Quarterly data are only available from July 2005 onwards Proven re-offending rates for adult offenders discharged from prison or commencing a court order Between October 2009 and September 2010, around 190,000 adult offenders3 were discharged from prison or commenced a court order. Just under 69,000 of these offenders were proven to have committed a re-offence within a year. This gives a one year proven re-offending rate of 36.0 per cent. The average number of proven re-offences committed by these re-offenders was 3.32. Overall there was a 4.9 percentage point decrease (from 40.9 to 36.0 per cent) in the proven re-offending rate between 2000 and the 12 months ending September 2010 and a 19.7 per cent decrease (from 4.13 to 3.32) in the average number of proven re-offences per re-offender. 

Proven re-offending rates for adults discharged from prison 
 
Between October 2009 and September 2010, around 56,000 adult offenders3 
were discharged from prison. Around 27,000 of these (47.9 per cent) were proven to have committed a re-offence within a year. These offenders committed around 110,000 proven re-offences, an average of 4.10 each (Table 18a). More than half (54.6 per cent) of adult offenders discharged from prison were released from a sentence of less than 12 months. These offenders had a one year proven re-offending rate of 57.3 per cent, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from 2000 (54.3 per cent) (Table 19). 

12 months ending September 20101,2 

2. Quarterly data are only available from July 2005 onwards Adult proven re-offending rates by individual prison Among prisons which discharged 30 or more offenders between October 2009 
and September 2010, proven re-offending rates varied considerably from 18.1 per cent to 80.2 per cent for offenders with a sentence of less than 12 months and from 2.6 per cent to 77.3 per cent for offenders with a sentence of 12 
months or more. A large part of this variability reflects the mix of offenders who are held in different prisons and, therefore, comparisons between prisons should not be made using these raw re-offending rates (Tables 22a and 22b). To account for this variability in the mix of prisoners, a model has been developed to help explain if re-offending rates are affected by the specific prison they are discharged from or if the rate of re-offending reflects the mix of offenders. For example, a group of prisoners with a high number of previous offences is more likely to re-offend than a group with a low number of previous offences. Among prisons discharging offenders serving sentences of less than 12 
months, two prisons (Kirkham and Sudbury) had significantly lower proven reoffending rates than expected and one (Wetherby) had significantly higher (Table 22a). Among prisons discharging offenders serving sentences of 12 months or more, three prisons had significantly lower proven re-offending rates (Askham Grange, East Sutton Park and Kirklevington Grange) than expected and one (Hindley) had significantly higher (Table 22b). 

Proven re-offending for adults commencing a court order Between October 2009 and September 2010, around 110,000 adult offenders3 started a community order. Around 38,000 of these (35.4 per cent) 
committed a proven re-offence within a year. These proven re-offenders committed around 120,000 proven re-offences, an average of 3.23 each. 

Similarly, of the 39,000 adult offenders starting a suspended sentence order, 30.2 per cent committed a proven re-offence within a year, with an average of 2.92 proven re-offences each (Tables 20 and 21). 

Proven re-offending rates by probation trust Offenders given a court order are managed by the probation service which comprises 35 probation trusts. Proven re-offending rates for these offenders are presented by probation trust in Table 24. This takes the first court order commencement from within each probation trust as the start point for measuring re-offending and subsequent events as proven re-offences. Proven re-offending rates varied considerably between probation trusts from 
27.8 per cent to 44.3 per cent. A large part of this variability reflects the mix of offenders who are given a court order and, therefore, comparisons between probation trusts should not be made using these raw re-offending rates (Table 24). 

For probation trusts an adjusted proven re-offending rate to control for differences in the composition of the offender group in each trust has been developed from the national model. Four probation trusts showed significantly lower proven re-offending rates than expected. These were Gloucestershire, Staffordshire and West Midlands, Thames Valley and Warwickshire. Two 
(Lancashire and Nottinghamshire) showed significantly higher proven reoffending rates than expected (Table 24). Re-offending rates by index disposal (sentence type) should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. The 
'Compendium of Re-offending Statistics and Analysis 2011' compares like for like offenders which enables a more reliable comparison of proven reoffending rates between offenders receiving different sentences. The key results from the Compendium were: 

 Those sentenced to one to two years in custody had lower re-offending 
rates than those given sentences of less than 12 months - the 
difference was 4.4 percentage points in 2008. 
 
 Custodial sentences of less than 12 months were less effective at 
reducing re-offending than both community orders and suspended 
sentence orders - between five and nine percentage points in 2008. 
 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/compendium-of-reoffendingstatistics-and-analysis Juvenile proven re-offending Between October 2009 and September 2010, there were around 100,000 
juvenile offenders3. Around 34,000 of these offenders were proven to have committed a re-offence within a year. This gives a one year proven reoffending rate of 34.8 per cent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from 32.6 
per cent in the previous 12 months (Table 1). These re-offenders committed an average of 2.85 re-offences, an increase from 2.74 in the previous 12 months (Table 1). However, the number of juvenile proven offenders has decreased by 29.2 per cent since 2000 (Table 1). This is in line with the pattern of first time entrants to the criminal justice system where the number of young people receiving their first reprimand, warning or conviction has also decreased. More information on first time entrants for both adults and juveniles can be found in the 'Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly Bulletin' at: www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/criminal-justice/criminal-justice-statistics 
 
Overall there has been a 1.1 percentage point increase in the proven reoffending rate of juveniles since 2000 (from 33.7 to 34.8 per cent). However, compared to 2000, the characteristics of juvenile offenders in the year ending September 2010 meant that they were more likely to re-offend. Therefore, after controlling for offender characteristics, the re-offending rate actually decreased by 1.7 percentage points (Table 1). 

Among Youth Offending Teams (YOTs), proven re-offending rates varied considerably from 22.2 per cent to 49.7 per cent. A large part of this variability reflects the mix of offenders who are managed by different YOTs and, therefore, comparisons between YOTs should not be made using these raw re-offending rates (Table 17). 

More information on youth criminal statistics is available at: 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/youth-justice Trends in proven re-offending across the country Map 1 shows proven re-offending rates by upper-tier local authority. This chart is not controlled for the characteristics of offenders and is designed for users to gain an understanding of what the level of proven re-offending is within their area and how it is changing over time. When comparing between local authorities, the differences may be due to: 

 Different types of offenders; areas where the offenders have high 
numbers of previous offences are likely to have higher proven reoffending rates. 
 
 Police activity; areas with high police detection rates are likely to have 
higher proven re-offending rates. 
 
 Age profile of offenders in the area; areas with a younger population 
are likely to have higher proven re-offending rates. 
 When comparing proven re-offending over time within local authorities, any significant changes in these factors may affect the comparison. Between October 2009 and September 2010, very few local authorities showed substantial change compared to the previous 12 months. For local authorities with more than 100 offenders, the largest decrease was seen in The Vale of Glamorgan (down 3.7 percentage points) and the largest increase was in Monmouthshire (up 5.4 percentage points) (Table 13c). 

Prolific and other priority offenders The Prolific and other Priority Offender Programme (PPO) aims to use a multiagency approach to focus on a very small, but hard-core group of prolific/persistent offenders who commit a disproportionate amount of crime. 

Please refer to the 'Definitions and Measurement' document for more detail: 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/proven-re-offending 
 
Just over 7,300 offenders3 (adult and juvenile) were on the PPO scheme at some point between October 2009 and September 2010. Of these, just under 5,600 committed a proven re-offence within a year (76.5 per cent). These reoffenders represented 0.9 per cent of all offenders, but were responsible for 
5.2 per cent of all proven re-offences committed by all offenders (Table 16). Compared to the previous 12 months, the proportion of PPO offenders who committed a proven re-offence increased by 0.7 percentage points. This compares to an overall decrease of 0.5 percentage points since the scheme began in 2005 (Table 16). 

Drug-misusing offenders The Drug Interventions Programme (DIP) was introduced in April 2003 with the aim of developing and integrating measures for directing adult drugmisusing offenders into drug treatment and reducing offending behaviour. There are a number of ways offenders can be identified as drug-misusers. Please refer to the 'Definitions and Measurement' document for more detail: 
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/proven-re-offending 
 
Around 46,000 adult offenders3 were identified as drug-misusers at some point between October 2009 and September 2010. Of these, around 26,000 committed a proven re-offence within a year (57.3 per cent). These reoffenders represented 4.7 percent of all adult offenders, but were responsible for 26.4 per cent of all proven re-offences committed by adult offenders (Table 15). Compared to the previous 12 months, the proportion of drug-misusing offenders who committed a proven re-offence has increased by 2.3 percentage points. Since 2005, there has been a decrease of 8.0 percentage points, although most of this change occurred between 2005 and 2006 when there was a large expansion in the drug intervention programme (Table 15). 

## List Of Quarterly Tables

Proven re-offending - overview 
 
Table 1   
Summary proven re-offending data, by adults and juveniles  
 
 
2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 2   
Proven re-offending data, by gender, 2000, 2002 to September 
 
 
2010 
 
Table 3   
Proven re-offending data, by age, 2000, 2002 to September  
 
 
2010 
 
Table 4a   
Adult proven re-offending data, by ethnicity, 2000, 2002 to  
 
 
September 2010 
 
Table 4b   
Juvenile proven re-offending data, by ethnicity, 2000, 2002 to 
 
 
September 2010 
 
Table 4c   
Adult and juvenile proven re-offending data, by ethnicity, 2000, 
 
 
2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 5a   
Adult proven re-offending data, by index offence, 2000, 2002 to 
 
 
September 2010 
 
Table 5b   
Juvenile proven re-offending data, by index offence, 2000, 2002 
 
 
to September 2010 
 
Table 5c   
Adult and juvenile proven re-offending data, by index offence, 
 
 
2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 6a   
Adult proven re-offending data, by number of previous offences, 
 
 
2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 6b   
Juvenile proven re-offending data, by number of previous  
 
 
offences, 2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 6c   
Adult and juvenile proven re-offending data, by number of  
 
 
previous offences, 2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 7a   
Adult proven re-offending data, by number of previous custodial 
 
 
sentences, 2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 7b   
Juvenile proven re-offending data, by number of previous  
 
 
custodial sentences, 2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 8   
Serious proven re-offending data, 2000, 2002 to September  
 
 
2010 
-----------------Tables 9 to12 are published annually in October---------------- 
 
Table 13a   Proven re-offending of adult offenders, by upper-tier local  
 
 
authority, 2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 13b   Proven re-offending of juvenile offenders, by upper-tier local  
 
 
authority, 2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 13c   Proven re-offending of adult and juvenile offenders, by upper-tier 
 
 
local authority, 2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 14a   Proven re-offending of adult offenders, by lower-tier local  
 
 
authority, 2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 14b   Proven re-offending of juvenile offenders, by lower-tier local  
 
 
authority, 2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 14c   Proven re-offending of adult and juvenile offenders, by lower-tier 
 
 
local authority, 2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 15   
Proven re-offending of adult drug-misusing offenders, by Drug 
 
 
Action Team, 2004 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 16   
Proven re-offending of adult and juvenile prolific and other  
 
 
priority offenders, by upper-tier local authority, 2005 to  
 
 
September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Table 17   
Juvenile proven re-offending data, by Youth Offending Team 
 
 
2005 to September 2010 rolling quarters 
 
Proven re-offending by index disposal, probation trust and prison 
 
Table 18a   Adult proven re-offending data, by index disposal, 2000, 2002 to 
 
 
September 2010 
 
Table 18b   Juvenile proven re-offending data, by index disposal, 2000,  
 
 
2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 19   
Adult proven re-offending data, by custodial sentence length, 
 
 
2000, 2002 to September 2010 
 
Table 20   
Adult proven re-offending data, by most frequently-used  
 
 
combinations of requirements for offenders starting Community 
 
 
Orders, 2005 to September 2010 
 
Table 21   
Adult proven re-offending data, by most frequently-used  
 
 
combinations of requirements for offenders starting Suspended 
 
 
Sentence Orders, 2005 to September 2010 
 
Table 22a   Proven re-offending of adult offenders given sentences of less 
 
 
than 12 months, by individual prison, based on first discharge 
 
 
from each prison, 2007 to September 2010 
 
Table 22b   Proven re-offending of adult offenders given sentences of 12 
 
 
months or more, by individual prison, based on first discharge 
 
 
from each prison, 2007 to September 2010 
 
Table 23   
Juvenile proven re-offending data, by individual prison, based on 
 
 
first discharge from each prison, 2007 to September 2010 
 
Table 24   
Adult proven re-offending data by probation trust based on first 
 
 
commencement from each trust, 2005 to September 2010 

## Annex A

Payment by results 
 
Background 
 
The "Breaking the Cycle" Green Paper6 outlined the MoJ's commitment to commission at least six 'payment by results' (PbR) projects covering a significant proportion of the offender population. 

The MoJ intends to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements, delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost. In order to achieve this, the MoJ will pilot 'payment by results' at a number of prisons and local areas to test the concept and measure the results. The statistical "outcome" that MoJ is interested in is whether the PbR pilots can drive a real reduction in the proportion of offenders who are re-convicted (the re-conviction rate) in the 12 months following release from prison or from commencing a court order. 

 
Prison results 
 
The re-conviction rate used for the PbR pilot prisons presented below differs from the National Statistics re-offending measure. It measures the proportion of offenders who are convicted at court in the 12 months following release from prison with a further six months to allow for cases to progress through the courts. It excludes those who receive an out-of-court disposal only. This is because, for PbR purposes, we want to measure a change in the proportion of offenders who are convicted at court as court convictions are more closely associated with costs to the Criminal Justice System. Offenders are counted in the cohort if they are discharged from the prison at any time during the cohort period. The measure excludes those who serve the whole of their custodial sentence on remand as well as the usual National Statistics exclusions as explained in the 'Definitions and Measurement' document7. 

 
Table A1 below will be included in the Proven Re-offending Quarterly Bulletin each quarter and will show, for each pilot prison or area that uses the reconviction rate as its outcome measure, the baseline re-conviction rate, the target re-conviction rate8 and the outcome re-conviction rate. The only prison pilot included in Table A1, at present, is HMP Doncaster, but this will be updated on an ongoing basis as new pilots begin and outturn results become available. 

 
                                                 

## Conviction Rates

| Prison / Area     | Start date of            |
|-------------------|--------------------------|
| pilot             |                          |
| Target re-        |                          |
| conviction rate   |                          |
| Baseline re-      |                          |
| conviction rate   |                          |
| (Jan to Dec       |                          |
| 2009)             |                          |
| (Oct 2011 to      |                          |
| Sept 2012)        |                          |
| Outcome re-       |                          |
| conviction rate   |                          |
| (Oct 2011 to Sept |                          |
| 2012)             |                          |
| HMP Doncaster     | 1 October                |
| 2011              |                          |
| 58.2%             | 53.2% To be published in |
| 2014              |                          |

 
Number of eligible offenders in Payment by results pilots As part of the Department's Business Plan (2011-2015), the Ministry of Justice is committed to publishing quarterly data on the number of pilot rehabilitation schemes established and the number of participants, subject to commercial confidentiality and Office for National Statistics guidance. 

Table A2: Payment by results pilots commenced  
 
Prison / Area Start date of pilot Length of pilot Number of eligible participants to date 

| 9 September 2010    | Six years    |   864 |
|---------------------|--------------|-------|
| 10                  |              |       |
| Peterborough Social |              |       |
| Impact Bond (SIB)   |              |       |
| 9                   |              |       |
|                     |              |       |
| 1 October 2011      | Four years   |   914 |
| 11                  |              |       |
| HMP Doncaster       |              |       |

 There is a Justice Reinvestment PbR pilot across five London boroughs and Greater Manchester, which use a different outcome measure, namely a reduction in demand on the Criminal Justice System. The results will be published separately. PbR pilots for offenders managed by the Probation Service are likely to begin in early 2013. When these are underway Table A1 will be updated to reflect these new PbR areas. 

## Annex B

How the measure of proven re-offending has changed and the effect of these changes 
 
Background The MoJ launched a statistical consultation on improvements to the transparency and accessibility of our information in 2010 and a response to the consultation was published in March 201112. One aspect of the consultation was the measurement of proven re-offending. Prior to the consultation there were six different measures of proven reoffending: 

 National adult proven re-offending; 
 
 Local adult proven re-offending; 
 
 National youth proven re-offending; 
 
 Local youth proven re-offending; 
 
 Prolific and other priority offending (PPO); and 
 
 Drug-misusing proven offending. The new approach to measuring proven re-offending integrates these 
approaches into a single framework. This allows users to: 
 
 form a clear picture of proven re-offending at national and local levels; 
 
 compare adult and youth results, and enable other work on transition 
between the youth and adult criminal justice systems; 
 
 understand how results for different offender groups (such as those 
managed by the prison and probation services, those under the PPO schemes, drug-misusing offenders, first time entrants, etc.) fit in to the 
overall picture on proven re-offending; and 
 
 continue to analyse proven re-offending behaviour for particular types 
of offender. 
 
Comparing trends in re-offending Table B1 shows the proportion of offenders with a proven re-offence/reconviction using the new measure of re-offending and the previous measures of adult re-conviction and juvenile re-offending. Comparisons we make use cohorts up to 2009. Re-offending rates are lower using the new measure than using the previous measure. The differences are as follows: 

 For adult and juvenile offenders the new measure is based on all 
offenders released from custody, receiving a non-custodial conviction 
at court, a caution, reprimand, warning or tested positive for opiates or 
cocaine over a 12 month period, but the previous measures only 
included offenders released from custody or commencing a court order in the first three months of the year. Using a three month sample overrepresents prolific offenders in comparison to a full year's worth of data. 
 
 For adults the new measure counts all offenders including those who 
received a caution, fine or discharge, where the previous adult measure only included those who commenced a court order or who were discharged from custody. 
 
 For adult offenders, the new measure is a measure of proven reoffending (which counts offences proven through a court conviction or a caution) whereas the previous measure is a measure of re-conviction (which only counts offences proven through a court conviction). 
 As a result, re-offending rates are 14.4 percentage points lower for adults and rates for juveniles are 4.1 percentage points lower using the new measure. However, the re-offending rates are similar for adults given a court order or who received a custodial sentence, including those given a sentence of less than 12 months. Rates are between 1.0 and 2.6 percentage points lower using the new measure. 

Table B1: Re-offending using the new and previous measures, 2009 
 

|                                                    |   New measure  |   Previous measure(s) |
|----------------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------------------|
| Adults                                             |           24.9 |                  39.3 |
| Juveniles                                          |           32.8 |                  36.9 |
| Adults given a court order                         |           34.5 |                  35.5 |
| Adults given a custodial sentence                  |           46.8 |                  48.5 |
| Adults given a custodial sentence of less than 12m |           56.8 |                  59.4 |
|                                                    |                |                       |

 Figure B1 shows re-offending rates for adult offenders between 2000 and 2009 using the new and previous measure. For 2009, 24.9 per cent of adult offenders have a proven re-offence within 12 months using the new measure compared to 39.3 per cent using the previous re-conviction measure. However, trends for adult offenders are similar using the two measures. The proportion of offenders with a proven re-offence/reconviction rose between 2000 and 2002, fell between 2002 and 2006, rose between 2006 and 2008, and fell between 2008 and 2009 using both measures. 

 
The overall reduction in re-offending is smaller using the new measure (1.2 
percentage points between 2000 and 2009 and 0.5 percentage points between 2008 and 2009) than using the previous measure (3.7 percentage points between 2000 and 2009 and 0.8 percentage points between 2008 and 
2009). Figure B2 shows re-offending rates for juvenile offenders between 2000 and 
2009 using the new and previous measure. In 2009, 32.8 per cent of young offenders re-offended within 12 months using the new measure compared to 36.9 per cent using the previous measure. The reduction in re-offending is smaller using the new measure (0.9 percentage points between 2000 and 2009 and 0.1 percentage points between 2008 and 2009) than using the previous measure (3.3 percentage points between 2000 and 2009 and 0.4 percentage points between 2008 and 2009). Overall, the trends are broadly similar. 

Trends in proven re-offending/re-conviction rates for adult custodial offenders are similar using the new and previous measures. The proportion of offenders given a custodial sentence of less than 12 months who re-offended rose between 2000 and 2009 using both measures (by 2.6 percentage points using the new measure and 1.4 percentage points using the previous measure). The proportion of offenders given any custodial sentence who re-offended fell between 2000 and 2009 using both measures (by 2.6 percentage points using the new measure and 2.9 percentage points using the previous measure). 

 
The change in methodology The following sections provide detail regarding the change in methodology between the methods in measuring re-offending and how those changes impact on the data. The table below provides a comparison of the previous methodologies with the new approach.

Comparison of previous and new measures of proven re-offending 
Previous measures of re-offending 
New measure of   
re-offending 
 
National adult 
re-conviction 
Local adult reoffending 
National youth reoffending 
The cohort 
Offenders aged 18+ discharged from custody or commencing court orders under probation supervision 
between January 
to March 
Offenders aged 18+ on the probation caseload at the end of each calendar 
quarter 
Offenders aged 10- 17 discharged from custody, receiving a court conviction or receiving a caution/reprimand or final warning between 
January and March 
The follow-up period to measure reoffending 
12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be proved 
3 months for offences to occur and a further 3 months for offences to be proved 
12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be proved 
Local youth reoffending 
Prolific and other Priority Offending (PPO) 
Drug-misusing offending 
Offenders aged 10-17 discharged from custody, receiving a court conviction or receiving a 
caution/reprimand or final warning 
between January and March 
All offenders identified as being on the PPO scheme as at 1 April 
All Class A drug offenders identified through positive drug tests on arrest, OASyS or drug 
requirement as 
part of a court order, CJIT identification, or identification on prison release between January and March 
All offenders who received a caution/reprimand or warning, were convicted at court (other than custody), were discharged 
from custody, or 
tested positive for cocaine or opiates on arrest over a 12 month period. 
12 months for offences to occur and a further 3 months for offences to be proved 
12 months for offences to occur and a further 3 months for offences to be proved 
12 months for offences to occur and a further 3 months for offences to be proved 
12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be proved 
The headline 
measure 
Frequency of reoffending (the number of proven 
re-offences per 100 offenders) 
Proportion of offenders reoffending, 
compared to the rate that would be expected based on the offender characteristics 
Frequency of reoffending (the number of proven reoffences per 100 offenders) 
What counts as a proven reoffence 
Offences committed within the follow-up 
period which 
were proved by a court conviction either within the follow-up period or in a further six months 
Offences committed within the 
follow-up 
period which were proved by a court conviction or caution either within the follow-up period or in a further three months 
Offences committed within the follow-up period which were 
proved by a court 
conviction or reprimand or final warning either within the follow-up period or in a further six months 
Frequency of reoffending (the number of proven 
re-offences per 100 offenders) 
Number of further offences compared to number in 
previous year, against the reduction that would be expected given time on the PPO scheme 
Number of further offences compared to 
what would be expected based on their previous offending history 
Proportion of offenders reoffending 
We also include information on the frequency of reoffending and information on the predicted rate based on offender characteristics 
Offences committed within the follow-up 
period which 
were proved by a court conviction or reprimand or final warning either within the follow-up period or in a further three months 
Offences committed within the follow-up period 
which were proved 
by a court conviction or caution either within the follow-up period or in a further three months. Breach offences that lead to substantive recorded convictions are included 
Offences committed within the 
follow-up period 
which were proved by a court conviction either within the follow-up period or in a further three months 
Offences committed within the follow-up period which were 
proved by a court 
conviction or caution/reprimand or warning either within the follow-up period or in a further six months 


Use of a 
predicted rate 
A predicted rate of re-offending 
was included for the proportion of offenders expected to reoffend based on their characteristics 
A predicted rate of re-offending 
was included for the proportion of offenders expected to reoffend based on their characteristics 
A predicted rate of re-offending was 
included for the proportion of offenders expected to re-offend based on their characteristics 
No predicted rate 
Evidence on the 
link between time 
on the PPO scheme and expected reductions in further offending were used to assess reductions in number of offences compared to the previous year
A predicted rate of re-offending 
was included for the proportion of offenders expected to reoffend based on their previous criminal history 
A predicted rate of re-offending is 
included for the proportion of offenders expected to re-offend based on their characteristics 
 
Logistic regression is used 
Response surface methodology was used 
Logistic regression was used 
Logistic regression was used 
Logistic regression was used 
Data source 
Police National Computer 
Police National Computer 
Police National Computer 
Youth Offending Teams data 
Police National Computer 
Police National Computer 
Police National Computer 
Geographic breakdown 
None 
Region, 
Probation area, Local Authority 
None 
Youth Offending 
Team level 
Police Force and Local Authority level 
Drug Action team and Local Authority level 
Upper and lower tier local authority areas for all offenders. Other breakdowns for specific categories of offender. 

 
The effect of the changes 
 
Adults Differences in methodology are reflected in different results. Table B3 shows the impact on reported rates of adult re-conviction/re-offending. The table breaks down the changes between the previous measure and the new measure to identify the different effects of the changes in methodology. 

Previous1 measure: reconvictions (prison and 
probation offenders only), 
first quarter of the year
Previous measure: reconvictions (prison and 
probation offenders only), 
whole year
New measure: reoffending (prison and 
probation offenders only), 
whole year
New measure: proven reoffending (all offenders), 
whole year
Proportion 
2000
43.0
40.0
40.9
26.2
2002
45.5
42.0
43.0
27.6
2003
45.4
41.5
42.4
26.9
2004
42.9
38.6
39.8
25.5
2005
41.2
36.6
38.4
24.9
2006
38.6
35.6
37.6
24.6
2007
39.0
35.9
37.9
24.8
2008
40.1
36.1
37.9
25.4
2009
39.3
34.7
36.2
24.9
Frequency (average per offender)
2000
1.85
1.66
1.69
0.89
2002
2.13
1.84
1.87
0.99
2003
2.05
1.73
1.76
0.93
2004
1.81
1.51
1.54
0.83
2005
1.66
1.36
1.40
0.77
2006
1.44
1.26
1.31
0.73
2007
1.47
1.27
1.32
0.73
2008
1.55
1.27
1.31
0.75
2009
1.41
1.15
1.18
0.70
Frequency of re-offenders (average per re-offender)
2000
4.30
4.15
4.13
3.39
2002
4.68
4.39
4.36
3.59
2003
4.52
4.18
4.15
3.44
2004
4.23
3.91
3.87
3.27
2005
4.03
3.70
3.65
3.10
2006
3.73
3.54
3.48
2.95
2007
3.78
3.53
3.48
2.94
2008
3.88
3.51
3.46
2.93
2009
3.57
3.31
3.27
2.80
Number of offenders
2000
42,734
148,052
148,052
477,698
2002
43,247
157,243
157,243
495,664
2003
44,095
159,686
159,686
520,660
2004
46,532
163,775
163,775
512,600
2005
43,429
170,021
170,021
532,045
2006
50,281
181,726
181,726
571,458
2007
50,085
190,418
190,418
595,020
2008
53,718
197,035
197,035
589,948
2009
56,616
200,077
200,077
576,255

1. Based on the national adult re-convictions publication (March 2011) Among adult offenders in 2009, the previous national measure (the first column) shows that 39.3 per cent of adult offenders were re-convicted within a year based on a sample of 56,616 offenders. 

 
The second column shows the re-conviction rates from the previous measure looking at offenders who were released from custody or commenced a court order, but at any point during the year. The inclusion of offenders from a full 12 month period means the results are calculated using the full proven offender population rather than a sample - this ensures we do not overrepresent prolific offenders in the cohort, which is a problem in using a January to March sample as in the previous adult re-conviction measure. This leads to a lower proportion of re-convicted offenders (between three and five percentage points, e.g. 34.7 per cent compared to 39.3 per cent in 2009). The change to a full year also increases the number of offenders, to 200,077 
in 200913. 

 
The third column shows the proven re-offending rates from the new measure, but still based only on those offenders who were released from custody or commenced a court order at any point during the year. Proven re-offending includes offences which result in a caution in addition to those resulting in a conviction at court. The proportion of offenders who were proven to re-offend is between one and two percentage points higher than for those who were reconvicted (36.2 per cent compared to 34.7 per cent in 2009). There is little difference at this stage because we are still only considering offenders who already have a prison or a court order. The fourth column shows the re-offending rates from the new measure looking at all adult offenders who received a caution, a conviction at court, discharged from custody, or tested positive for cocaine or opiates. The inclusion of these offenders increases the numbers considerably. In 2009, the previous adult measure tracks the re-offending behaviour of 56,616 offenders; 
the new measure tracks 576,255 offenders. The inclusion of offenders who received less severe disposals and are generally less prolific in nature reduces the proportion who re-offend by around 11 to 16 percentage points 
(36.2 per cent compared to 24.9 per cent in 2009). 

Change over time Compared to the previous measure, the reduction over time in the proportion of offenders who re-offend is much lower using the new measure. Using the previous measure, between 2000 and 2009, the proportion of offenders who were re-convicted fell 3.7 percentage points (from 43.0 to 39.3 per cent). Using the new measure, the proportion of offenders who committed a proven re-offence fell 1.2 percentage points (from 26.2 to 24.9 per cent). 

## Juveniles The Only Change Between The Previous Measure And The New Measure Of Reoffending Among Young People Is The Move From A One Quarter Sample To Including All Young Offenders Over The Period Of A Year.

Previous measure1             
proven re-offending
New measure proven reoffending 
Proportion 
2000
40.2
33.7
2002
38.5
33.4
2003
39.0
34.3
2004
38.6
33.6
2005
38.4
33.6
2006
38.7
33.9
2007
37.5
32.5
2008
37.3
32.9
2009
36.9
32.8
Frequency (average per offender)
2000
1.51
1.12
2002
1.42
1.10
2003
1.42
1.09
2004
1.32
1.03
2005
1.25
0.98
2006
1.23
0.97
2007
1.16
0.90
2008
1.14
0.91
2009
1.10
0.90
Frequency of re-offenders (average per re-offender)
2000
3.77
3.32
2002
3.69
3.29
2003
3.63
3.19
2004
3.43
3.06
2005
3.26
2.91
2006
3.18
2.86
2007
3.08
2.77
2008
3.06
2.75
2009
2.99
2.75
Number of offenders
2000
41,176
139,326
2002
40,753
136,401
2003
40,297
138,379
2004
44,153
149,452
2005
45,337
163,545
2006
48,938
171,061
2007
52,544
171,454
2008
44,837
145,579
2009
37,472
121,107

 As for adults, using the whole year reduces the proportion of offenders who re-offended because we do not over-represent prolific offenders in the cohort, which is a problem in using a January to March sample. Table B4 shows the reduction is between four and seven percentage points. For 2009, with the previous measure, 36.9 per cent commit a proven re-offence within one year; 
with the new measure, 32.8 per cent do so. The new measure, which is based on offenders from a 12 month period, includes over three times as many offenders as the existing measure. 

Change over time Compared to the previous measure, the reduction in the proportion of offenders who re-offend between 2000 and 2009 is much lower using the new measure. Using the previous measure, between 2000 and 2009, the proportion of offenders who were proven to re-offend fell 3.3 percentage points (from 40.2 
to 36.9 per cent). Using the new measure, the proportion of offenders who committed a proven re-offence fell 0.9 percentage points (from 33.7 to 32.8 
per cent). 

 
Drug-misusing offenders Published results for drug-misusing offenders on the previous measure covered 2008 and 2009; results using the new measure cover from 2004 
onwards. The previous measure: 

 Includes offenders who have been identified in the first quarter of the 
year, whereas the new measure includes offenders from any point during the year. 
 
 Includes all drug-misusing offenders irrespective of the date of proven 
offence, whereas the new measure includes identified drug-misusing 
offenders who have received a caution, been convicted at court, been discharged from custody, or tested positive for cocaine or opiates on 
arrest during a 12 month period. 
 
 Counts re-offences that were proven through a court conviction, 
whereas the new measure counts re-offences that were proven by a court conviction or caution. 
 As for adult and juvenile offenders, using the whole year to identify offenders reduces the proportion of offenders who re-offend, because we do not overrepresent prolific offenders in the cohort, which is a problem in using a January to March sample. Table B5 shows the impact on reported rates of reoffending/re-conviction by drug-misusing offenders. 

Previous measure1 proven reconviction
New measure of proven reoffending 
Proportion 
2004
67.3
2005
65.3
2006
58.6
2007
57.2
2008
61.0
56.4
2009
57.0
54.7
Frequency (average per offender)
2004
3.20
2005
2.94
2006
2.37
2007
2.34
2008
2.6
2.29
2009
2.2
2.10
Frequency of re-offenders (average per re-offender)
2004
4.75
2005
4.51
2006
4.03
2007
4.09
2008
4.3
4.06
2009
3.9
3.84
Number of offenders
2004
20,652
2005
29,112
2006
44,597
2007
54,474
2008
20,934
59,039
2009
20,109
53,109

1. Based on the national drug-misusing offenders publication (December 2010) 
 
Table B5 shows that the proportion of offenders who commit a proven reoffence is between two and five percentage points lower using the new measure (57.0 per cent using the previous measure compared to 54.7 per cent using the new measure). The new measure, which follows offenders over a 12 month period, includes between two and three times as many offenders as the existing measure. 

Prolific and other priority offenders 
 
Published results for prolific and other priority offenders (PPOs) on the previous measure presented the frequency of proven re-offending for all PPOs; results using the new measure cover the proportion of offenders proven to re-offend, and the frequency of proven re-offending for all offenders and for re-offenders from 2005 onwards. 

The previous measure: 

 Includes offenders who have been identified in the first quarter of the 
year, whereas the new measure includes offenders from any point during the year. However, PPOs are generally on the PPO programme 
for a sustained period of time so this only has a moderate impact on numbers of offenders included. 
 
 Includes all identified PPOs, whereas the new measure includes 
identified PPOs who have tested positive for cocaine or opiates, 
received a caution, been convicted at court, or been discharged from custody during a 12 month period. 
 
 Counts re-offences that are proven through a court conviction or 
caution and also includes breach offences that lead to substantive recorded convictions. The new measure only includes re-offences proven through a court conviction or caution. 

## Table B6 Shows The Impact On Reported Rates Of Proven Re-Offending By Ppos And On Numbers Of Offenders Included In The Measure. 2005 To 2009

Previous  measure1 proven reoffending
New measure of proven reoffending 
Proportion 
2005
77.0
2006
75.7
2007
75.8
2008
77.2
2009
56.0
75.1
Frequency (average per offender)
2005
4.01
2006
3.83
2007
3.80
2008
2.6
3.80
2009
2.4
3.49
Frequency of re-offenders (average per re-offender)
2005
5.21
2006
5.06
2007
5.01
2008
4.93
2009
4.3
4.65
Number of offenders
2005
8,555
2006
8,239
2007
8,309
2008
10,771
8,607
2009
10,635
8,156
1. Based on the national Prolific and other Priority Offenders publication (March 2010)

 
 
The average number of proven re-offences committed by PPOs in 2009 is lower for the previous measure than for the new measure in 2008 (2.4 reoffences per offender using the previous measure, but 3.49 using the new). The previous measure includes PPOs who have not been proven guilty of an offence or been discharged from custody in the 12 month period when the reoffending cohort is formed. This type of offender is likely to have a lower level of re-offending. These differences may help to explain: 

 why the frequency of re-offending is lower for the previous measure 
than for the new measure in 2009 (2.4 re-offences per offender using 
the previous measure, but 3.49 using the new); and 
 
 why the previous measure includes nearly 2,500 more PPOs in 2009 
than does the new measure. 

## Local Adult Re-Offending The Most Similar Results For The New Measure Of Re-Offending And The Existing Local Measure Of Adult Re-Offending Are The Early Estimates Of Re-Offending Of Offenders Given A Court Order. Like The Existing Measure Of Local Adult Reoffending, The Early Estimates Of Offenders Given A Court Order:

 measure re-offending over three months; 
 
 only measures offenders under probation supervision; 
 
 provides results by probation trust; and 
 
 compares actual re-offending rates with a predicted re-offending rate. 
 There remain significant differences between the early estimates and the existing local adult measure of re-offending, including: 

 The existing local adult measure includes offenders on licence - the 
early estimates include offenders commencing court orders only; 
 
 The existing local adult measure uses a 'snapshot' approach. This 
means offenders are counted if they are on the caseload at certain times in the year. Offenders who are on the caseload for a short period 
of time may not get counted with the existing measure. The early 
estimates count every offender who commences a court order; 
 
 Because the existing local adult measure uses a 'snapshot' approach 
some offenders may get counted up to four times if they are on the 
caseload for over 12 months. The early estimates count every offender once; 
 The existing local adult measure measures the re-offending of 
offenders at any point during the court order - the early estimates 
measure re-offending in the first three months after an offender commenced a court order; and 
 
 The predicted score for the existing local adult measure was derived 
from analysis of 2007 re-offending data and the prediction for the early estimates was derived from analysis of 2008 re-offending data. 
 These differences explain why the re-offending rate is higher with the early estimates of re-offending by offenders commencing a court order than with the existing measure of local adult re-offending: 

 offenders on licence have lower rates of re-offending than those 
commencing a court order; and 
 
 offenders serving a court order have lower rates of re-offending the 
longer they are on that court order. 
 However, the prediction for the early estimates has been tailored specifically to the relevant group of offenders. 

Local youth re-offending The previous measure of youth re-offending used data that Youth Offending Teams (YOT) collected themselves from their local police and courts. The measure was used as management information and was never published or put into the public domain. The new measure uses data from the Police National Computer (PNC). Internal analysis and discussion with stakeholders has highlighted a number of differences between the two data sources: 

 The PNC includes a number of offenders who have received a 
reprimand or final warning which do not always appear on the YOT 
systems. As a result, there are more youth offenders and a higher overall youth re-offending rate using the new measure than using the previous local youth re-offending measure. 
 
 The PNC includes more comprehensive data on re-offending as adults 
by offenders who originally offended as youths. 
 
 Using PNC data reduces the data-collection burden on YOT and local 
police forces. 
 
 PNC data measures re-offending on recordable offences and YOT data 
measures re-offending on all offences. Offences which are not recordable include speeding offences, parking offences and other minor motoring offences. As a result, YOT data is more comprehensive for motoring re-offences. 
 
 
 The new measure allocates offenders to a locality using their home 
address data from the PNC; the previous local youth measure allocated offenders using offender management data. As a result, Looked After Children (LAC) who are in foster care, or in a children's 
home, or in a boarding school or live with another adult known to 
children's services, maybe allocated to a different YOT under the previous youth measure than the new measure. 
 
 For their re-offending to be included in the new measure, administrative 
data on young people in custody and secure accommodation has to be 
matched to the PNC. Some cases are not successfully matched. This 
process was not required for these offenders to be included in the previous local youth measure. As a result, YOT data can be more 
comprehensive regarding custodial offenders or those in secure accommodation. 
 
 Using PNC data provides an external measure of youth re-offending, 
which makes it an appropriate data-source to support any future 
policies which tie local funding to re-offending performance. 
 
 Using PNC data allows local youth re-offending to be measured on the 
same basis as national youth re-offending and adult re-offending, permitting adult and youth re-offending to be measured on a like-forlike basis and a more comprehensive picture of re-offending to be 
formed. Work is underway to fully quantify the extent of these differences. 

## Annex C

Glossary of terms 
 
Re-offending terms 
 
Cohort - this is the group of individuals whose re-offending is measured. 

 
Index offence - the index offence is the proven offence that leads to an offender being included in the cohort. 

 
Index disposal - the index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their index offence. 

Start point (also known as the index date) - this is the set point in time from when re-offences are measured. 

Follow-up period - this is the length of time proven re-offending is measured over. 

Waiting period - this is the additional time beyond the follow-up period to allow for offences committed towards the end of the follow-up period to be proved by a court conviction, caution, reprimand or final warning. 

 
Adjusted to baseline - proven re-offending is related to the characteristics of offenders which means that any overall rate of proven re-offending will depend, in part, on the characteristics of offenders coming into the system 
(just as the examination pass rate of a school will be related to the characteristics of its pupils).  We use a modelling technique to produce a baseline figure adjusted to match the characteristics of the cohort we are comparing. Please refer to the 'Definitions and Measurement' document for more detail at www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/proven-re-offending. 

 
Re-conviction - where an offender is convicted at court for an offence committed within a set follow-up period and convicted within either the followup period or waiting period. 

Proven re-offence - where an offender is convicted at court or receives some other form of criminal justice sanction for an offence committed within a set follow-up period and disposed of within either the follow-up period or waiting period. 

Cohort used in the Proven Re-offending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin - 
the proven re-offending cohort consists of all offenders discharged from custody, otherwise sanctioned at court, receiving a caution, reprimand or warning or tested positive for opiates or cocaine in each year. This cohort's criminal history is collated and criminal behaviour is tracked over the following one year. Any offence committed in this one-year period which is proven by a court conviction or out-of-court disposal (either in the one-year period, or in a further six months waiting period) counts as a proven re-offence. 

 
Cohort used in the Local Adult Re-offending Quarterly Bulletin - the local adult re-offending measure takes a snapshot of all offenders, aged 18 or over, who are under probation supervision at the end of a quarter, and combines four such snapshots together. This cohort's criminal history is collated and criminal behaviour is tracked over the following three months. Any offence committed in this three month period which is proven by a court conviction or out-of-court disposal (either in the three month period, or in a further three months waiting period) counts as a proven re-offence. The latest available publication is the Local Adult Re-offending: 1 October 2010 - 30 September 
2011, England and Wales; Ministry of Justice, February 2011. 

www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/reoffending/local-adult-reoffending 
 
Disposal (sentence type) 
 
Fine - a financial penalty imposed following conviction. 

 
Court orders - court orders include community sentences, community orders and suspended sentence orders supervised by the Probation Service. They do not include any pre or post release supervision. 

Criminal Justice Act 2003 (CJA03) - for offences committed on or after 4 
April 2005, the new community order replaced all existing community sentences for adults. The Act also introduced a new suspended sentence order for offences which pass the custody threshold. It also changed the release arrangements for prisoners. See Appendix A of Offender Management Caseload Statistics 2009 for more information. 

Community order - for offences committed on or after 4 April 2005, the new community order introduced under the CJA 2003 replaced all existing community sentences for those aged 18 years and over. This term refers to all court orders except suspended sentence orders and deferred sentences which may have a custodial component to the sentence. The court must add at least one (but could potentially add all 12) requirements depending on the offences and the offender. The requirements are: 

 unpaid work (formerly community service/community punishment) - a 
requirement to complete between 40 and 300 hours' unpaid work; 
 
 activity - for example, to attend basic skills classes; 
 
 programme - there are several designed to reduce the prospects of reoffending; 
 
 prohibited activity - a requirement not do so something that is likely to 
lead to further offence or nuisance; 
 curfew - which is electronically monitored; 
 
 exclusion - this is not used frequently as there is no reliable electronic 
monitoring yet available; 
 
 residence - requirement to reside only where approved by probation 
officer; 
 
 mental health treatment (requires offender's consent); 
 
 drug rehabilitation (requires offender's consent); 
 
 alcohol treatment (requires offender's consent); 
 
 supervision - meetings with probation officer to address 
needs/offending behaviour; and 
 
 attendance centre - between a minimum of 12 hours and a maximum 
of 36 in total which includes three hours of activity. Typically, the more serious the offence and the more extensive the offender's needs, the more requirements there will be. Most orders will comprise of one or two requirements, but there are packages of several requirements available where required. The court tailors the order as appropriate and is guided by the Probation Service through a pre-sentence report. 
Suspended sentence order (SSO) - the CJA 2003 introduced a new 
suspended sentence order which is made up of the same requirements as a community order and, in the absence of breach is served wholly in the community supervised by the Probation Service. It consists of an 'operational 
period' (the time for which the custodial sentence is suspended) and a 'supervision period' (the time during which any requirements take effect). Both 
may be between six months and two years and the 'supervision period' 
cannot be longer than the 'operational period', although it may be shorter. 
Failure to comply with the requirements of the order or commission of another 
offence will almost certainly result in a custodial sentence. 
Pre CJA03 Court Orders - Community sentences 
 
Community punishment order (CPO) - the offender is required to 
undertake unpaid community work. 
Community rehabilitation order (CRO) - a community sentence which may 
have additional requirements such as residence, probation centre attendance or treatment for drug, alcohol or mental health problems. 
Community punishment and rehabilitation order (CPRO) - a community 
sentence consisting of probation supervision alongside community punishment, with additional conditions like those of a community rehabilitation order. 
Drug treatment and testing order (DTTO) - a community sentence targeted at offenders with drug-misuse problems. 

Custody - the offender is awarded a sentence to be served in prison or a Young Offenders Institute (YOI). If the offender is given a sentence of 12 
months or over, or is aged under 22 on release, the offender is supervised by the Probation Service on release. It is important to note that the sentence lengths and youth disposals awarded will be longer than the time served in custody. For more information please refer to Appendix A of Offender Management Caseload Statistics 2009. 

Short sentences (under 12 months) - those sentenced to under 12 months 
(made under the Criminal Justice Act 1991) spend the first half of their sentence in prison and are then released and considered 'at risk' for the remaining period. This means they are under no positive obligations and do not report to the Probation Service, but if they commit a further imprisonable offence during the 'at risk' period, they can be made to serve the remainder of the sentence in addition to the punishment for the new offence. The exception to this is those aged 18 to 20 who have a minimum of three month's supervision on release. 

Sentences of 12 months or over - the CJA03 created a distinction between standard determinate sentences and public protection sentences. Offenders sentenced to a standard determinate sentence serve the first half in prison and the second half in the community on licence. 

Youth disposal (sentence type) 
 
Reprimand or warning - a reprimand is a formal verbal warning given by a police officer to a juvenile offender who admits they are guilty for a minor first offence. A final warning is similar to a reprimand, but can be used for either the first or second offence, and includes an assessment of the juvenile to determine the causes of their offending behaviour and a programme of activities is designed to address them. 

First-tier penalties 
 
Discharge - a juvenile offender is given an absolute discharge when they admit guilt, or are found guilty, with no further action taken. An offender given a conditional discharge also receives no immediate punishment, but is given a set period during which, if they commit a further offence, they can be brought back to court and re-sentenced. 

Fine - the size of the fine depends on the offence committed and the offender's financial circumstances. In the case of juveniles under 16, the fine is the responsibility of the offender's parent or carer. 

Referral order - this is given to juveniles pleading guilty and for whom it is their first time at court (unless the offence is so serious it merits a custodial sentence or it is of a relatively minor nature). The offender is required to attend a Youth Offender Panel to agree a contract, aimed to repair the harm caused by the offence and address the causes of the offending behaviour. 

 
Reparation order - the offender is required to repair the harm caused by their offence either directly to the victim or indirectly to the community. 

 
Prison categories 
 
Category B and category C **prisons** hold sentenced prisoners of their respective categories, including life sentenced prisoners. The regime focuses on programmes that address offending behaviour and provide education, vocational training and purposeful work for prisoners who will normally spend several years in one prison. 

 
High security prisons hold category A and B prisoners. Category A 
prisoners are managed by a process of dispersal, and these prisons also hold a proportion of category B prisoners for whom they provide a similar regime to a category B prison. The category B prisoners held in a High Security Prison are not necessarily any more dangerous or difficult to manage than those in category B prisons. 

Female prisons, as the name implies, hold female prisoners. Because of the smaller numbers, they are not divided into the same number of categories although there are variations in security levels. 

Local prisons serve the courts in the area. Historically their main function was to hold un-convicted and un-sentenced prisoners and, once a prisoner had been sentenced, to allocate them on to a category B, C or D prison as appropriate to serve their sentence. However, pressure on places means that many shorter term prisoners serve their entire sentence in a local prison, while longer term prisoners also complete some offending behaviour and training programmes there before moving on to lower security conditions. All local prisons operate to category B security standards. 

 
Open prisons have much lower levels of physical security and only hold category D prisoners. Many prisoners in open prisons will be allowed to go out of the prison on a daily basis to take part in voluntary or paid work in the community in preparation for their approaching release. 

Prisoner categories These categories are based on a combination of the type of crime committed, the length of sentence, the likelihood of escape, and the danger to the public if they did escape. The four categories are: 
Category A prisoners are those whose escape would be highly dangerous to the public or national security. 

Category B prisoners are those who do not require maximum security, but for whom escape needs to be made very difficult. 

Category C prisoners are those who cannot be trusted in open conditions, but who are unlikely to try to escape. 

Category D prisoners are those who can be reasonably trusted not to try to escape and are given the privilege of an open prison. 

 
Miscellaneous terms 
 
Drug-misusing offenders There are four ways a drug-misusing offender can be identified: 

 Individuals who have tested positive for heroin or crack/cocaine 
following an arrest or charge for 'trigger' offences (largely acquisitive 
crime offences) as part of the Drug Interventions Programme (DIP) are included as adult proven offenders. 
 
 Any offender that received an OASys assessment whilst on licence or 
on a community sentence and are either recorded as being subject to a current Drug Treatment and Testing Order (DTTO) or Drug 
Rehabilitation Requirement (DRR), or are assessed as having a criminogenic drug need. 
 
 Any offender identified as requiring further drug interventions by 
Counselling, Assessment, Referral, Advice, Throughcare (CARAT) 
teams in prison, and now being released into the community. 
 
 Any offender identified by local Criminal Justice Integrated Teams 
(CJITs) as requiring further intervention for their drug use and offending 
as part of DIP. 
 
National Probation Service - the National Probation Service generally deals with those aged 18 years and over. (Those under 18 are mostly dealt with by Youth Offending Teams, answering to the Youth Justice Board.) They are responsible for supervising offenders who are given community sentences and suspended sentence orders by the courts, as well as offenders given custodial sentences, both pre and post their release. 

Police National Computer - the Police National Computer (PNC) is the police's administrative IT system used by all police forces in England and Wales and managed by the National Policing Improvement Agency. As with any large scale recording system the PNC is subject to possible errors with data entry and processing. The MoJ maintains a database based on weekly extracts of selected data from the PNC in order to compile statistics and conduct research on re-offending and criminal histories. The PNC largely covers recordable offences - these are all indictable and triable-either-way offences plus many of the more serious summary offences. All figures derived from the MoJ's PNC database, and in particular those for the most recent months, are likely to be revised as more information is recorded by the police. 

 
Prolific and other priority offenders - the Prolific and other Priority Offenders Programme (PPO) aims to use a multi-agency approach to focus on a very small, but hard core group of prolific/persistent offenders who commit disproportionate amounts of crime and cause disproportionate harm to their local communities. The identification of a PPO is undertaken at a local level involving police, local authorities, prison and probation services and youth offending teams. The factors that influence the decision of whether an offender is included in the PPO programme are: 

 the nature and volume of crimes they commit; 
 
 the nature and volume of other harm they cause; and 
 
 the detrimental impact they have on their community. 
 
Recordable offences - recordable offences are those that the police are required to record on the PNC. They include all offences for which a custodial sentence can be given plus a range of other offences defined as recordable in legislation. They exclude a range of less serious summary offences, for example television licence evasion, driving without insurance, speeding and vehicle tax offences. 

Indictable and summary offences - summary offences are triable only by a magistrates' court. This group includes motoring offences, common assault and criminal damage up to £5,000. More serious offences are classed either as triable-either-way (these can be tried either at the Crown Court or at a magistrates' court and include criminal damage where the value is £5,000 or greater, theft and burglary) or indictable-only (the most serious offences that must be tried at the Crown Court; these 'indictable-only' offences include murder, manslaughter, rape and robbery). The term indictable offences is used to refer to all triable-either-way and 'indictable-only' offences. 

Offence group - a split of offences into 21 separate groups. A more detailed split of the 10 indictable offence groups (violence against the person, sexual offences, burglary, robbery, theft and handling and stolen goods, fraud and forgery, criminal damage, drug offences, other indictable offences (excluding motoring), indictable motoring) and the two summary offence groups (summary non-motoring and summary motoring offence types). 

## Explanatory Notes

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics: 

 meet identified user needs; 
 
 are well explained and readily accessible; 
 
 are produced according to sound methods, and 
 
 are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest. 
 Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed. The statistics in this bulletin relate to re-offending data in England and Wales. 

This is the fourth set of quarterly re-offending statistics to be published by the MoJ, subsuming a number of previous publications including: adult reconvictions, juvenile re-offending, drug-misusing offenders and prolific and other priority offenders. 

Symbols used 
 

| ..     | Not available                                          |
|--------|--------------------------------------------------------|
| 0      | Nil or less than half the final digit shown            |
| -      | Not applicable                                         |
| *      | One or both of the comparison figures are less than 30 |
| (p)    | Provisional data                                       |
|        |                                                        |

## Contact Points

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office: Tel: 020 3334 3536 Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to: 
Jo Peacock Ministry of Justice Justice Statistics Analytical Services 7th Floor 102 Petty France London SW1H 9AJ Tel: 020 3334 3737 General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be emailed to: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk General information about the official statistics system of the United Kingdom is available from www.statistics.gov.uk