Status of the NTEM 7.0 dataset

On 28th July 2016 a new version of TEMPRO and NTEM dataset (version 7.0) was published.

This was an important and long-awaited update of the NTEM datasets which was previously revised in 2011 (version 6.2) and contained a number of important improvements:

- The use of 2011 Census data instead of the 2001 Census used in version 6.2.
- The use of recent population, household and employment projections, as well as the more up-to-date dwellings trajectories for local authorities.
- Incorporation of the latest evidence on trends in driving licence holding.
- Updated assumptions about trip rates based on recent National Travel Survey (NTS) evidence, which is a significant update as the last NTEM datasets used trip rates derived from 1988-1996 NTS data.

Full details can be found in the NTEM Planning Data Guidance version 7 published in TEMPRO website.

Since the release, some localised issues have been identified with the NTEM7.0 dataset which arose from the use of incorrect data in the model. These issues occurred in the processing of input data for employment and dwellings for a small but significant number of local authorities. The local authorities which are known to be materially affected by these issues are listed in table 1.

The application of revised input assumptions will affect the projections for all local authorities but in the vast majority of cases these changes are unlikely to be material. However, our preliminary testing suggests that in a small number of cases there may be a significant impact on other local authorities. These are listed in table 2.

We are currently working through these issues, conducting further checks and are considering the most appropriate format for an addendum to NTEM7.0 when our review is complete. Based on the current progress, we anticipate that an addendum could be formally issued in January 2017 (the Department will issue an update of this timescale in December).

It is the Department’s view that until the addendum is released NTEM7.0 continues to provide the most up-to-date dataset for use in transport business cases and a robust basis for developing forecasts in the vast majority of cases. However, NTEM users are advised to take particular care when applying the dataset in the affected area. Promoters of schemes in the affected areas should contact the Department if they have queries or concerns regarding the NTEM7.0 dataset and require further advice in relation to their business cases. | Region | Local Authority | Affected input | |-------------------------|--------------------------|-------------------------| | South East | Crawley | Dwellings | | East Midlands | Daventry | Dwellings | | Scotland | Glasgow City | Dwellings | | East Midlands | Lincoln | Dwellings | | East of England | Mid Suffolk | Dwellings | | Yorkshire & the Humber | North East Lincolnshire | Dwellings | | East Midlands | North Kesteven | Dwellings | | South West | North Somerset | Dwellings | | East Midlands | North West Leicestershire| Dwellings | | East Midlands | Northampton | Dwellings | | South West | Poole | Dwellings | | South East | Rother | Dwellings | | Scotland | Shetland Islands | Dwellings | | Scotland | South Lanarkshire | Dwellings | | East of England | South Norfolk | Dwellings | | East Midlands | South Northamptonshire | Dwellings | | South East | South Oxfordshire | Dwellings | | London | Southwark | Dwellings | | West Midlands | Telford and Wrekin | Dwellings | | Scotland | West Dunbartonshire | Dwellings | | East Midlands | West Lindsey | Dwellings | | West Midlands | Wolverhampton | Dwellings | | South West | North Devon | Dwellings & employment | | South West | Torridge | Dwellings & employment | | South West | West Dorset | Dwellings & employment | | South West | Wiltshire | Dwellings & employment | | West Midlands | Wychavon | Dwellings & employment | | South East | Chiltern | Employment | | North East | County Durham | Employment | | Scotland | Dumfries and Galloway | Employment | | South West | Forest of Dean | Employment | | West Midlands | Malvern Hills | Employment | | South West | Mid Devon | Employment | | South West | North Dorset | Employment | | Scotland | Orkney Islands | Employment | | Scotland | Scottish Borders | Employment | | Region | Local Authority | Employment | |-----------------|----------------------------------|------------| | West Midlands | Herefordshire, County of | | | South West | South Somerset | | | West Midlands | Wyre Forest | |