School Organisation Strategy What is a school organisation strategy?

- Strategic plan outlining how school places are organised across the borough, including school roll projections.

- The School Organisation Strategy isn’t statutory or compulsory – it’s a sensible and practical way to make sure that we have the right amount of school places now and for the future.

- Ensure there is a school place for every child that needs one - means regardless of residence we have a duty to provide a primary or secondary school place as required.

- Linking Growth and Development and changes in demography to needs. GLA, SRP and surplus places

- Greater London Authority (GLA) datasets include - population: households: ethnicity: economic activity: sets are updated annually, incorporating the latest data from Office for National Statistics (ONS) and other sources as it becomes available.

- We subscribe to GLA Demography – to generate our School Roll Projections (SRP).

- The replacement method is used to forecast the number of children anticipated in each age (year) group over time. 4 year olds are Reception class, 5 year olds Y1 and so on at primary. 11 year olds will be Y7 at secondary.

### Replacement method

| Year | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----| | 2005 | 2.146 | 2.036 | 2.085 | 2.054 | 2.057 | 2.114 | 2.076 | | 2006 | 2.408 | 2.146 | 2.054 | 2.096 | 2.043 | 2.055 | 2.110 | | 2007 | 2.531 | 2.432 | 2.141 | 2.061 | 2.097 | 2.054 | 2.100 | | 2008 | 2.367 | 2.517 | 2.415 | 2.155 | 2.071 | 2.054 | 2.076 |

### Zero Development Population

| Year | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----| | 2005 | 2.478 | 2.447 | 2.391 | 2.490 | 2.494 | 2.421 | 2.382 | | 2006 | 2.633 | 2.453 | 2.423 | 2.369 | 2.458 | 2.465 | 2.391 | | 2007 | 2.731 | 2.605 | 2.442 | 2.404 | 2.352 | 2.438 | 2.439 | | 2008 | 2.732 | 2.680 | 2.567 | 2.408 | 2.363 | 2.319 | 2.394 |

### New catchment ratios

| Year | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----| | 2005 | 0.866 | 0.832 | 0.872 | 0.872 | 0.872 | 0.873 | 0.871 | | 2006 | 0.915 | 0.875 | 0.848 | 0.885 | 0.891 | 0.843 | 0.861 | | 2007 | 0.927 | 0.934 | 0.877 | 0.857 | 0.891 | 0.843 | 0.861 | | 2008 | 0.867 | 0.939 | 0.941 | 0.895 | 0.861 | 0.893 | 0.858 |

### Applying new catchment ratios to population

| Year | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----| | 2005 | 2.146 | 2.036 | 2.085 | 2.054 | 2.057 | 2.114 | 2.076 | | 2006 | 2.408 | 2.146 | 2.054 | 2.096 | 2.043 | 2.055 | 2.110 | | 2007 | 2.531 | 2.432 | 2.141 | 2.061 | 2.097 | 2.054 | 2.100 | | 2008 | 2.367 | 2.517 | 2.415 | 2.155 | 2.071 | 2.054 | 2.076 |

**Zero Development Populations assumes that there are no new housing developments added.**

**2006 Catchment Ratio**

[ \\frac{2146}{2453} = 0.875 ]

**2006 Population Projection**

87.5% of 2453 School roll projections

• About 18 months ago the GLA noticed irregularities with their projection model for SRP.

• A miscalculation in the ONS mid year estimates for internal migration (population movement across London boroughs) meant their internal migration model was counting inward internal migration but not counting outward internal migration.

• This miscalculation skewed the GLA projections which were passed on to us in our SRP. Primary school roll projections

| Year | School Places | SRP | Difference PAN minus SRP | |------|---------------|------|--------------------------| | 2019 | 3,915 | 3,347| 568 (17.0% surplus) | | 2020 | 4,035 | 3,379| 656 (19.4% surplus) | | 2021 | 4,125 | 3,435| 690 (20.1% surplus) | | 2022 | 4,215 | 3,473| 742 (21.4% surplus) | | 2023 | 4,245 | 3,543| 702 (19.8% surplus) |

| Year | School Places | SRP | Difference PAN minus SRP | |------|---------------|------|--------------------------| | 2019 | 7,876 | 6,324| 1,552 (24.5% surplus) | | 2020 | 7,951 | 6,254| 1,697 (27.1% surplus) | | 2021 | 7,966 | 6,187| 1,779 (28.8% surplus) | | 2022 | 7,966 | 6,142| 1,824 (29.7% surplus) | | 2023 | 7,966 | 6,119| 1,827 (30.2% surplus) | Secondary school roll projections

| Year | School Places | SRP | Difference School Places minus SRP | |------|---------------|------|-----------------------------------| | 2019 | 8,019 | 7,173| 846 (11.8% surplus) | | 2020 | 8,022 | 7,270| 752 (10.3% surplus) | | 2021 | 8,025 | 7,356| 669 (9.1% surplus) | | 2022 | 8,025 | 7,476| 549 (7.3% surplus) | | 2023 | 8,025 | 7,546| 479 (6.3% surplus) | School Financial Viability

LBHF School Budget and Funding 3-year Falling Roll Scenario

Hammersmith & Fulham Council Emerging themes and recommendations

1. Address primary surplus, reduce PAN, collaborative approaches.
2. Secondary provision nurtures and develops education based relationships - Industrial Strategy.
3. Revive and restore the unique appeal of local schools.
4. Federation and collaboration approaches.
5. Use school organisation strategy evidence base to respond to planning proposals.
6. Further work on Special Educational Need and Disabilities (SEND) and Alternative Provision (AP) place planning linked to need.
7. Balance between provision in specialist schools, special units within mainstream schools and mainstream institutions.
8. Use future Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) to invest in school buildings and regeneration of school estate through development.