London’s Political Climate

Tony Travers LSE Mayoral election: 1\\textsuperscript{st} preference votes – 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012

| | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | |------------------|------|------|------|------| | Livingstone | 39 | 37 | 37 | 40 | | Norris/Johnson | 27 | 29 | 43 | 44 | | Kramer/Hughes/Paddick | 12 | 15 | 10 | 4 | | Greens | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 | | UKIP | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | | BNP | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | | Sioban Benita | | | | 3.8 | GLA elections: Assembly seats won – 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012

| | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | |-------|------|------|------|------| | Con | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | | Lab | 9 | 7 | 8 | 12 | | LD | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | | Green | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | UKIP | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | BNP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | GLA elections: Assembly ‘list’ vote share – 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012

| | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | |-------|------|------|------|------| | Con | 29 | 29 | 35 | 32 | | Lab | 30 | 25 | 28 | 41 | | LD | 15 | 17 | 11 | 6.8 | | Green | 11 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.5 | | UKIP | 2.1 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 | | BNP | 2.9 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | | Oth | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4.9 | Johnson/Livingstone vs Con/Lab – vote share 2008 and 2012

| | % | % | | |------------------|----|----|---| | Johnson | 43 | 44 | +1| | Conservatives | 35 | 32 | -3| | Johnson ‘lead’ | 8 | 12 | +4| | Livingstone | 37 | 40 | +3| | Labour | 28 | 41 | +13| | Livingstone ‘lead’| 9 | -1 | -10| ‘Swing’ Con to Lab – 2008 to 2012

Mayoral: 1%

Assembly: 8%

England: 14%

‘Ken’ effect, or Labour doing worse in London?

## Vote share

- Assembly list and borough

| Year | Con LB | Con Ass | Lab LB | Lab Ass | LD LB | LD Ass | Max | Min | |------|--------|---------|--------|---------|-------|--------|-----|-----| | 2002 | 34 | 31 | 34 | 25 | 20 | 18 | 60 | 31 | | 2004 | 31 | 35 | 25 | 28 | 18 | 20 | 53 | 25 | | 2006 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 53 | 25 | | 2008 | 37 | 32 | 28 | 33 | 14 | 22 | 53 | 25 | | 2010 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 41 | 22 | 7 | 53 | 25 | | 2012 | 32 | 60 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 60 | 4 |

(1968) (1971) (1982) (2004)

Conservative vote is resilient over time Labour vote is also resilient over time Lib Dem vote in 2012 was its worst-ever in any LB or Assembly elections London: “a Labour city”?

Conservatives - General Election vote share (%)

| Year | London | UK | London ‘lead’ | |------|--------|-----|---------------| | 1979 | 46.0 | 43.9| 2.1 | | 1983 | 43.9 | 42.4| 1.5 | | 1987 | 46.5 | 42.2| 4.3 | | 1992 | 45.3 | 41.9| 3.4 | | 1997 | 31.2 | 30.7| 0.5 | | 2001 | 30.5 | 31.7| -1.5 | | 2005 | 31.9 | 32.3| -0.4 | | 2010 | 34.5 | 36.1| -1.6 | London: “a Labour city”?

| Year | London | UK | London ‘lead’ | |------|--------|------|---------------| | 1979 | 39.6 | 36.9 | 2.7 | | 1983 | 29.9 | 27.6 | 2.3 | | 1987 | 31.5 | 30.8 | 0.7 | | 1992 | 37.1 | 34.4 | 2.7 | | 1997 | 49.5 | 43.2 | 6.3 | | 2001 | 47.3 | 40.7 | 6.6 | | 2005 | 38.9 | 35.3 | 3.6 | | 2010 | 36.6 | 29.0 | 7.6 |

## Greater London Council/Greater London Authority elections

| Year | GLC/Mayor winner | Following General Election winner | |------|------------------|----------------------------------| | 1964 | Lab | Lab | | 1967 | Con | Con | | 1970 | Con | Con | | 1973 | Lab | Lab | | 1977 | Con | Con | | 1981 | Lab | Con | | 2000 | Ind (Lab) | Lab | | 2004 | Lab | Lab | | 2008 | Con | Con (minority) | | 2012 | Con | ? | London’s Political Climate

Tony Travers LSE