2016 UK GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, PROVISIONAL FIGURES

Statistical Release: National Statistics

30 March 2017

## Contents

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 3 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 5 2016 annual provisional emissions results .............................................................................. 7 Energy Supply ......................................................................................................................... 10 Residential ............................................................................................................................. 12 Transport ................................................................................................................................. 13 Business ................................................................................................................................ 13 Industrial process .................................................................................................................. 14 Public sector .......................................................................................................................... 14 Agriculture; waste management; and land use, land use change and forestry .................. 14 Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type .................................................................................... 15 2016 temperature adjusted provisional emissions results by sector .................................... 17 Additional Information ............................................................................................................. 19 Coverage of emissions reporting ......................................................................................... 19 Basis of the provisional emissions estimates ...................................................................... 19 Quarterly totals ...................................................................................................................... 20 Temperature adjustment ....................................................................................................... 20 Revisions to the quarterly provisional emissions estimates .............................................. 20 Future updates to emissions estimates ................................................................................. 21 Further information .............................................................................................................. 21 Background notes .................................................................................................................. 21 Executive Summary

This publication provides the latest estimates of 1990-2016 UK greenhouse gas emissions which are presented in carbon dioxide equivalent units throughout this statistical release.

Key findings

The provisional emissions figures rely on estimates of carbon dioxide emissions based on UK energy statistics. In 2016, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were provisionally estimated to be 374.1 million tonnes (Mt), 7.4 per cent lower than the 2015 figure of 403.8 Mt. Carbon dioxide (CO$\_2$) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for over 81 per cent of total UK greenhouse gas emissions.

This decrease in emissions was mainly caused by:

- Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions in the energy supply sector, down 18.7 per cent (25.4 MtCO$\_2$e) driven by a large decrease in power station emissions due to a change in the fuel mix for electricity generation, with less use of coal (as a result of reduced capacity and conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and increased use of gas.
- A decrease of 10.3 per cent (7.1 MtCO$\_2$e) in the business sector, driven by a reduction in emissions from manufactured solid fuels, following the closure of SSI steelworks at Redcar in September 2015.

Total carbon dioxide emissions on a temperature adjusted basis for 2016 were 378.2 Mt, 1.0 per cent higher than actual emissions. This reflects the fact that temperatures in 2016 were slightly higher than the long term average.

The sectoral breakdowns for provisional emissions are based on the source of the emissions. Emissions related to electricity generation are therefore attributed to power stations, the source of these emissions, rather than homes and businesses where electricity is used. Executive Summary

Figure 1: Summary of key findings

2016 UK greenhouse gas emissions provisionally estimated to decrease from 2015

Reduction in emissions mainly due to decrease in the use of coal for electricity generation

2015-2016 % change 1990-2016 % change

Energy supply 19% 54% Industrial process 13% 46% Business 10% 45% Transport 1% 1% Residential 4% 15% Public 5% 37%

Total Greenhouse Gas emissions 466 MtCO₂e Carbon dioxide emissions 374 MtCO₂e

2016 temperature adjusted greenhouse gas emissions were higher than actual emissions

Higher temperature adjusted emissions reflects the fact that temperatures in 2016 were slightly warmer than the long term average

2015 annual average temperature warmer than long term average by 0.4°C 2016 annual average temperature warmer than long term average by 0.4°C

Temperature adjusted emissions estimates remove the effect of external temperatures Figures are annual totals including the preceding 4 quarters.

The energy supply sector experienced the largest reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2015 to 2016

Reduction in energy supply CO₂ emissions driven by change in fuel mix for electricity generation in 2016, with less use of coal and more use of nuclear and renewables Introduction

This publication provides provisional annual and quarterly estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions by source sector for 2016. This publication also provides an estimate of temperature adjusted emissions, which give an idea of overall trends in emissions without fluctuations due to changes in external temperature.

Data for 1990-2015 are consistent with the annual emissions presented in the National Statistics publication ‘2015 Final UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions statistics’. Data for 2016 emissions are provisional and are calculated based on UK energy statistics.

The provisional estimates of carbon dioxide emissions are based on provisional inland energy consumption statistics, which are being published at the same time in DECC’s quarterly Energy Trends publication. Estimates of non-CO₂ gases are based on a simple approach which assumes that emissions of non-CO₂ gases in 2016 will be the same as emissions in 2015, and that these emissions will be spread evenly over the year.

Quarterly emissions estimates are presented as a moving annual total up to a particular quarter. For example when quarterly emissions are presented as up to quarter 4, 2016, this represent an annual total comprising the latest quarter (quarter 4 2016) and the preceding 3 quarters (quarters 1, 2 and 3 of 2016). Presenting the data in this way has some advantages over presenting data for single quarters, since seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out and long term trends highlighted. Data on emissions in individual quarters are available in the Excel spread sheet data tables published alongside this publication.

There are uncertainties associated with all estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. Although for any given year considerable uncertainties may surround the emissions estimates for a pollutant, it is important to note that trends over time are likely to be much more reliable. It is also important to note that the provisional 2016 estimates are subject to a greater range of uncertainty than the final figures for earlier years. For more information on uncertainties see the annex published alongside the 2015 Final UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions statistics. For the purposes of reporting, greenhouse gas emissions are allocated into sectors as follows:

- Energy supply
- Business
- Transport
- Public
- Residential
- Agriculture
- Industrial process
- Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- Waste management

These high-level sectors are made up of a number of more detailed sectors, which follow the definitions set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and which are used in international reporting tables which are submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) every year.

The provisional estimates are not used for any formal reporting of how the UK is performing against its emissions reduction targets, as this requires final estimates based on the UK’s greenhouse gas inventory. However, these statistics give policy makers and other users an initial steer as to the trend in emissions between 2015 and 2016, which helps them to form an initial assessment of the extent to which the UK is on track to meet targets. For information on UK emissions targets and progress towards them, see the 2015 Final UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions statistics.

More information about the underlying methodology for the quarterly emissions statistics can be found in the accompanying methodology document.

Note that all 2016 greenhouse gas emissions and energy statistics figures in this statistics release are provisional and subject to change. The annual provisional emissions estimates will be subject to revision when the final estimates are published in February 2018; however, they provide an early indication of emissions in the most recent full calendar year. The majority of provisional estimates in the past have been within 2 per cent of the final figures. 2016 annual provisional emissions results

In 2016, an estimated 30 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions were from the energy supply sector, 32 per cent from transport, 16 per cent from business and 18 per cent from the residential sector.

Between 2015 and 2016, provisional estimates indicate that carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 7.4 per cent (29.8 million tonnes (Mt)). Emissions in the energy supply sector decreased by 18.7 per cent (25.4 Mt), driven by a change in the fuel mix for electricity generation, with less use of coal (as a result of reduced capacity and conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and increased use of gas. Business sector emissions decreased by 10.0 per cent (7.1 Mt) due to a reduction in the use of manufactured solid fuels following the closure of SSI steelworks at Redcar in September 2015. Emissions increased by 4.5 per cent (2.8 Mt) in the residential sector due to an increase in the use of natural gas for space heating, and there was also a small increase of 0.9 per cent in emissions from the transport sector.

Since 1990, UK carbon dioxide emissions have decreased by 37 per cent. This decrease has resulted mainly from changes in the mix of fuels being used for electricity generation, including the growth of renewables, together with greater efficiency resulting from improvements in technology and a decline in the relative importance of energy intensive industries. Overall energy consumption is provisionally estimated to have decreased by around 10 per cent since 1990 (although it increased up to 2001 and has decreased since then). If this figure is adjusted to allow for the effect of temperature, energy consumption has fallen by around 13 per cent between 1990 and 2016. Table 1: UK Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2016, headline results

UK, 1990-2016

| | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 (p) | |----------------------|------|------|------|------|------|------|----------| | Energy supply | | | | | | | | | from power stations | 242.1| 210.0| 203.3| 218.7| 196.6| 136.4| 110.9 | | other Energy supply | 202.9| 162.7| 158.0| 172.7| 156.9| 102.9| 77.9 | | Business | 111.6| 108.7| 108.8| 96.9 | 78.4 | 68.6 | 61.5 | | Transport | 119.2| 119.4| 124.5| 128.8| 119.0| 118.8| 119.8 | | Public | 13.4 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 8.5 | | Residential | 78.4 | 79.7 | 85.6 | 82.5 | 84.5 | 63.4 | 66.3 | | Agriculture | 7.0 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | | Industrial process | 19.4 | 17.7 | 17.0 | 16.4 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 10.6 | | Waste management | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | | LULUCF | 3.2 | 0.6 | -1.8 | -5.2 | -7.5 | -8.9 | -8.9 | | Total CO₂ | 595.7| 557.5| 555.7| 555.2| 496.7| 403.8| 374.1 | | Other greenhouse gases| 203.3| 191.0| 154.1| 130.6| 109.2| 91.9 | 91.9 | | **Total greenhouse gases** | **799.0** | **748.5** | **709.7** | **685.8** | **605.9** | **495.7** | **466.0** |

Source: Table 1, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables

Notes:

1. (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.
2. Provisional 2016 CO₂ emissions for the agriculture, waste and LULUCF sectors are assumed to be the same as 2015 estimates as unlike other CO₂ estimates these cannot be estimated from energy statistics.
3. The entire time series is revised each year to take account of methodological improvements in the UK emissions inventory.
4. Emissions are presented as carbon dioxide equivalent in line with international reporting and carbon trading. To convert carbon dioxide into carbon equivalents, divide figures by 44/12.
5. Figures shown do not include any adjustment for the effect of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which was introduced in 2005.
6. Totals for CO₂ emissions, energy supply and total greenhouse gases may not sum due to rounding.
7. Estimates of non-CO₂ gases are based on a simple approach which assumes that emissions of non-CO₂ gases in 2016 will be the same as emissions in 2015. Both the non-adjusted and the temperature corrected series show a general decreasing trend since 2009. On a temperature adjusted basis, emissions remained relatively flat during the period between early 2010 and 2012, while non-adjusted emissions were much more variable during this period, showing that much of the fluctuation in the non-adjusted series can be attributed to changes in energy use due to varying external temperatures. In particular, Q4 2010 was 2.4 degrees (Celsius) lower than the long term average, while temperatures in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 were 0.5 and 1.8 degrees (Celsius) lower than the long term average.

During 2013, 2014 and 2015 both temperature adjusted and non-adjusted emissions have fallen. Energy Supply

The energy supply sector was the largest contributor to the decrease in carbon dioxide emissions between 2015 and 2016. Carbon dioxide emissions from this sector were provisionally estimated to be 110.9 Mt in 2016, a decrease of 19 per cent (25.4 Mt) compared to 2015.

Since 2015 emissions from power stations have decreased by 24 per cent, largely due to changes to the fuel mix used at power stations for electricity generation. In particular there was a 59 per cent decrease in coal use for generation (as a result of reduced capacity and conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and an increase in use of gas. In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from power stations, at 77.9 Mt, accounted for a fifth of all carbon dioxide emissions.

Looking at longer term trends, carbon dioxide emissions from the energy supply sector were estimated to be around 54 per cent lower in 2016 than they were in 1990. This decrease has resulted mainly from changes in the mix of fuels being used for electricity generation, including fuel switching from coal to gas and the growth of renewables, together with greater efficiency resulting from improvements in technology.

There has been an overall decline in the use of coal at power stations over the period (particularly during the 1990s), accompanied by an overall increase in the use of gas, which has a lower carbon content. Coal use in generation is estimated to have reduced by 85 per cent between 1990 and 2016.

Overall, emissions from electricity generation have decreased by 62 per cent since 1990, despite final consumption of electricity being provisionally estimated to be around 13 per cent higher in 2016 than in 1990 (although it peaked in 2005 and has decreased since then). Figure 3: Fuel mix for UK electricity generation, UK, 1990-2016, (Million tonnes of oil equivalent)

Source: Table 5.1.1, Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) 1970-2015 and Table 5.1 Energy Trends: March 2017 Excel data tables

Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.

Figure 4: Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation, UK, 1990-2016, (MtCO₂)

Source: Tables 1 & 2, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables

Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional. Residential

In 2016, the residential sector, with emissions of 66.3 Mt, accounted for 18 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. Between 2015 and 2016 there was a 4.5 per cent (2.8 Mt) increase in emissions from this sector. Whilst the average temperature for both years was similar the months of November and December were both over 3 degrees Celsius cooler on average when compared to the same months in 2015 which has contributed to an increase in the use of natural gas for space heating.

The main source of emissions from this sector is the use of natural gas for heating and cooking. Since 2004 there has been a general downward trend in emissions, although 2010 and 2012 were exceptions to this, due to the particularly cold weather experienced in 2010 and warm weather in 2011. In 2016, emissions from this sector were 15 per cent lower than in 1990.

It should be noted that emissions from this sector do not include those related to domestic electricity consumption, as these emissions are included in the energy supply sector. Transport

In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector, at 119.8 Mt, accounted for 32 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. Between 2015 and 2016, transport emissions increased by 0.9 per cent (1.0 Mt). Provisional motor vehicle traffic estimates show that vehicle kilometres travelled increased in 2016(^1) resulting in a higher use of fuel.

Emissions from this sector are similar to 1990 levels. Road transport is the most significant source of emissions in this sector, in particular passenger cars. Emissions from passenger cars have decreased since the early 2000s due to lower petrol consumption outweighing an increase in diesel consumption(^2) and, more recently, improvements in fuel efficiency of both petrol and diesel cars(^3). However, this decrease has been partially offset by an increase in emissions from light goods vehicles.

It should be noted that these estimates do not include emissions from international aviation and shipping; domestic aviation and shipping, however, are included.

Business

Carbon dioxide emissions from the business sector, at 61.5 Mt, accounted for around 16 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions in 2016. This was 10.3 per cent (7.1 Mt) lower than in 2015, largely due to a reduction the use of manufactured solid fuels following the closure of SSI steelworks at Redcar in September 2015.

There has been a 45 per cent decrease in business sector emissions since 1990. Most of this decrease came between 2001 and 2009, with a significant drop in 2009 likely driven by economic factors. The main driver of the overall decrease in emissions since 1990 is a reduction in emissions from industrial combustion (including iron and steel).

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(^1) Provisional Road Traffic estimates, Great Britain: January 2015 to December 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-road-traffic-estimates-great-britain-january-2015-to-december-2015

(^2) Transport Statistics Great Britain, Energy and environment (TSGB03), Table TSGB0301 (ENV0101) Petroleum consumption by transport mode and fuel type: United Kingdom, 2000-2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-statistics-great-britain-2016

(^3) Transport Statistics Great Britain, Energy and environment (TSGB03), Table TSGB0301 (ENV0103) Average new car fuel consumption: Great Britain 1997-2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tsgb03 Industrial process

In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from the industrial process sector were estimated to be 10.6 Mt, a decrease of 13.0 per cent (1.5 Mt) compared with 2015. Between 1990 and 2016, emissions from this sector are estimated to have decreased by around 46 per cent driven by a reduction in emissions from cement production due to lower manufacturing output from this sector.

Public sector

Carbon dioxide emissions from the public sector, at 8.5 Mt, were estimated to have increased by about 5.2 per cent (0.4 Mt) from 2015 emissions. This has been largely driven by an increase in the use of gas for space heating as a result of 2016 being a cooler year than 2015. Between 1990 and 2016, emissions from this sector are estimated to have decreased by around 37 per cent.

Agriculture; waste management; and land use, land use change and forestry

Updated emissions estimates for these sectors are not yet available for 2016, so for these statistics, emissions from these sectors are assumed to be the same as they were in 2015(^4).

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(^4) Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/final-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics The amount of carbon dioxide released by the consumption of one unit of energy depends on the type of fuel consumed. For example, since coal has a higher carbon content than gas, more carbon dioxide emissions result from burning one unit of coal than from one unit of gas.

Emissions per unit of electricity supplied by major power producers from fossil fuels are estimated to have been around 440 tonnes of carbon dioxide per gigawatt hour (GWh) overall in 2016; within this, emissions from electricity generated from coal (880 tonnes of carbon dioxide per GWh electricity supplied) were over two times higher than for electricity supplied by gas (330 tonnes of carbon dioxide per GWh). For all sources of electricity (including nuclear, renewables and autogeneration), the average amount of carbon dioxide emitted in 2016 amounted to around 220 tonnes per GWh of electricity supplied.

In 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, including fuel used for generating electricity, were estimated at 365.9 Mt. This was 8 per cent lower than the 2015 figure of 395.6 Mt. The biggest change in emissions was from the use of coal, down 39.3 Mt (54 per cent) from 72.7 Mt in 2015 to 33.4 Mt in 2016. This largely resulted from a change in the fuel mix for electricity generation, with less use of coal (as a result of reduced capacity and conversion of a unit at Drax to biomass) and increased use of gas.

Over the period 1990 to 2016, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels decreased by 36 per cent. Over the same period, overall primary consumption of fossil fuels has dropped by around 20 per cent. The relatively higher decrease in emissions can be attributed to an increase in the use of gas accompanied by a decrease in the use of coal and other solid fuels; carbon dioxide emissions from gas as a proportion of all carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels has increased from 24 per cent in 1990 to 48 per cent in 2016, whilst emissions from coal as a proportion of all fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions has decreased from 37 per cent to 9 per cent over the same period. The proportion of carbon dioxide emissions from oil has remained relatively stable over the period at around a third of emissions.

### Table 2: UK Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel

UK, 1990-2016

| | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 (p) | |----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------| | Gas | 145.9 | 188.5 | 241.5 | 235.4 | 228.4 | 171.8 | 181.4 | | Oil | 191.6 | 179.6 | 168.1 | 170.2 | 150.7 | 143.8 | 144.6 | | Coal | 219.2 | 152.0 | 117.0 | 124.9 | 100.9 | 72.7 | 33.4 | | Other solid fuels | 14.1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 6.5 | | Non-fuel | 24.9 | 24.0 | 17.6 | 14.6 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | | **Total** | 595.7 | 557.5 | 555.7 | 555.2 | 496.7 | 403.8 | 374.1 |

Source: Table 2, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables

Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional.

### Figure 6: Carbon dioxide emissions by fossil fuels, UK, 1990-2016, (MtCO₂)

Source: Table 2, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables

Note: (p) 2016 estimates are provisional. 2016 temperature adjusted provisional emissions results by sector

A temperature adjustment has been applied to the quarterly CO₂ emissions, in order to estimate what the overall trend of emissions would have been without the impact of external temperatures. Table 3 compares temperature adjusted and unadjusted quarterly CO₂ emissions by sector.

Table 3: Actual and temperature adjusted Carbon dioxide emissions by sector UK, Year to Q4 2016

| Sector | Total CO₂ emissions | Temperature adjusted CO₂ emissions | Difference (MtCO₂) | Difference (%) | |-----------------|---------------------|-----------------------------------|--------------------|----------------| | Energy supply | 110.9 | 112.2 | 1.2 | 1.1% | | Business | 61.5 | 62.1 | 0.6 | 1.0% | | Transport | 119.8 | 119.8 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | Public | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 2.0% | | Residential | 66.3 | 68.4 | 2.1 | 3.2% | | Other | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | **Total CO₂** | **374.1** | **378.2** | **4.1** | **1.1%** |

Source: Tables 3 & 4, Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics 1990-2016 Excel data tables

Note: 1. Figures for “Total CO₂” and “Difference” may be different to the sum of those presented in the table due to rounding.

The sectors most influenced by temperature are residential and energy supply. With respect to the residential sector in particular, if temperatures increase there is a decrease in demand for space heating, resulting in a decrease in emissions. The reverse is true if temperatures decrease.

Figures 7 and 8 below show the trend for these two sectors. Temperature adjusted emissions from the energy supply sector show a similar trend to non-adjusted emissions. In the residential sector, the difference between actual and temperature adjusted emissions is much more noticeable than in other sectors, reflecting the fact that this is the sector in which energy consumption and emissions are most sensitive to external temperatures. On a temperature adjusted basis, residential emissions have remained relatively flat since 2009, while the trend for non-adjusted emissions is much more variable over the same time period. Temperature adjusted emissions in the residential sector have decreased by around 6 per cent compared to the year to Q1 2009, while non-adjusted emissions have decreased by around 18 per cent over the same period. Additional Information

Coverage of emissions reporting

The basket of greenhouse gases covered by these statistics is based on that covered by the Kyoto Protocol, and consists of seven gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride. The last four gases are collectively referred to as fluorinated gases or F gases. In accordance with international reporting and carbon trading protocols, each of these gases is weighted by its global warming potential (GWP), so that total greenhouse gas emissions can be reported on a consistent basis. The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gas emissions are then presented in carbon dioxide equivalent units.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is reported in terms of net emissions, which means total emissions from burning fuel minus total removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by carbon sinks. Carbon sinks are incorporated within the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, which covers afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and forest management. They are defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as "any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere".

Unless otherwise stated, any figures included in this release represent emissions from within the UK and excludes its Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man) and overseas territories. Figures are expressed in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e).

Basis of the provisional emissions estimates

The estimates of carbon dioxide emissions have been produced based on provisional inland energy consumption statistics which are published in DECC’s quarterly Energy Trends publication.

Carbon dioxide accounts for the majority of UK greenhouse gas emissions (82 per cent in 2015). However, in order to give an indication of what the latest provisional carbon dioxide emissions estimates imply for the total, we need to also produce an estimate of emissions of the remaining non-CO₂ gases. Estimates of non-CO₂ gases are based on a simple approach which assumes that emissions of non-CO₂ gases in 2016 will be the same as emissions in 2015, and that these emissions will be spread evenly over the year. Quarterly totals

In order to remove the seasonality in the data so that a trend in emissions over time can be observed, quarterly emissions are reported as annual totals, covering the stated quarter plus the preceding three quarters. When data becomes available for each new quarter, the estimates for the latest quarter are added to the total, while at the same time the estimates for the same quarter from the previous year are removed from the series. This procedure serves to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlights long term trends, and can be used to show the underlying trend each quarter. Emissions estimates for each individual quarter are reported in the data tables accompanying this publication.

Temperature adjustment

Carbon dioxide emissions are indirectly influenced by external temperatures. During the winter months, emissions are generally higher than in summer months, due to higher demand for fuel for space heating. During a particularly cold winter for example, it is likely that more fuel will be burnt for domestic or commercial use than during an average winter, and therefore emissions will be higher due to the additional fuel consumption.

Temperature adjusted quarterly emissions estimates therefore remove the effect of external temperatures. In a particularly cold winter quarter, for example, this will result in temperature adjusted emissions being lower than actual emissions, reflecting the lower fuel consumption which would have occurred if temperatures had been at average levels (based on the 30 year period 1981-2010). The temperature adjustment to emissions has been applied for the months from September to April inclusive; in any given calendar year, it will therefore be applied in the period from January to April, and then again from September to December. Temperature adjustment is determined by the average number of heating degree days in each quarter. This information can be found in Energy Trends.

Further details of how quarterly emissions have been estimated and of the methodology underlying the temperature adjusted estimates can be found alongside this statistical release in a separate methodology summary.

Revisions to the quarterly provisional emissions estimates

It should be noted that the quarterly emissions time series may be revised annually reflect any revisions made to either the underlying energy data or to the UK greenhouse gas inventory. Emissions from 2009-2015 are consistent with final UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics from 1990-2015. Emissions estimates for 2016 are provisional and are based on UK energy statistics. More information on the timing of revisions to the underlying data can be found in the methodology summary. Future updates to emissions estimates

Final estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions for 2016 will be published as National Statistics on 6th February 2018. These estimates will be based on the UK’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 2016.

Provisional estimates help us to understand the latest trend in emissions, and will provide an early indication of this trend ahead of the final annual figures being available from our greenhouse gas emissions inventory. We recommend that users look at this trend rather than any absolute figures.

It is important to note that these figures are based on provisional energy data and are subject to change. The sectoral breakdown is given mainly for information, and is included in the publication for completeness, but sectoral estimates are more uncertain than the total.

Further information

Further information on UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics, including Excel tables with additional data on UK emissions, can be found on the Gov.uk website at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-statistics

The latest UK energy statistics, including revisions to earlier years’ data, can be found in the Energy Trends quarterly bulletin produced by BEIS. Any enquiries about the Energy Trends report should be sent to energyefficiency.stats@beis.gov.uk.

Background notes

1. A full set of data tables can be accessed via the Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics pages of the Gov.uk website.
2. The background quality report provides a summary of quality issues relating to statistics on UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
3. The latest UK energy statistics, including revisions to earlier years’ data, can be found in the 2016 Digest of UK Energy Statistics.
4. Detailed UK temperature data can be found on both the Met Office website and the Weather Statistics section of the Gov.uk website.
5. When emissions are measured on this basis, UK emissions account for less than 2 per cent of the global total, based on a range of estimates produced by the UN, the IEA, the World Resources Institute and the EIA, amongst others.