Annex A Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough and Doncaster Payment by Results pilots

Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin

30 January 2014 Annex A

Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough and Doncaster Payment by Results pilots

Background

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published “Breaking the Cycle: Effective Punishment, Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders” in December 2010. This Green Paper included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series of initial ‘payment by results’ (PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements by delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost.

The MoJ currently has two prison based PbR pilots operating in HMP Peterborough and HMP Doncaster. The Peterborough pilot began on 9 September 2010 and the Doncaster pilot on 1 October 2011.

There are a number of differences in the design of the two pilots to enable different PbR approaches to be tested. These differences (as set out below in the methodology section and also in Table A1 of the Appendix) mean that the interim figures for the two pilots cannot be directly compared.

The final results for both pilots will be based on a 12 month re-conviction measure which counts offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). As a consequence of this necessary time lag, final results will not be available until summer 2014 (for cohort 1 of both pilots, with final results for subsequent cohorts to follow in later years).

However, given the high level of public interest in relation to the reforms set out in the MoJ publication “Transforming Rehabilitation – a strategy for reform”, the MoJ began publishing interim re-conviction figures for both of these pilots from June 2013. This was the earliest opportunity after MoJ statisticians judged the number of offenders being reported on to be large enough to provide robust interim figures.

These figures are updated in this dedicated annex to each edition of the MoJ’s quarterly Proven Re-offending Statistics bulletin.

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1 A cohort is the group of offenders included in the pilot, and for whom the reduction in re-convictions will be measured. See Table A1 in the Appendix for more details on which offenders are included in the cohorts. Methodology

Offenders enter the PbR pilots after their first eligible release from the prison within the cohort period. For Peterborough, cohort 1 closed at the end of the month in which the 1000th eligible offender was released. For the purposes of this statistical bulletin, cohort 1 is all eligible offenders released between 9 September 2010 and 1 July 2012. For Doncaster, cohort 1 includes all eligible offenders released from 1 October 2011 to 30 September 2012.

Both PbR prison pilots use a 12 month re-conviction measure which differs from the National Statistics proven re-offending measure. The key difference is that re-convictions only count offences for which the offender was convicted at court, whereas the National Statistics proven re-offending measure also includes out of court disposals (cautions). However, the time periods used for both measures are the same – offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the proven re-offending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further 6 month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

There are a number of differences in the design of the two pilots to enable different PbR approaches to be tested. The Peterborough pilot includes offenders released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months, whereas the Doncaster pilot includes all offenders released from custody regardless of sentence length. Although both pilots will be assessed using a 12 month re-conviction measure, the exact measures used are different in the two pilots (see the next section, Final re-conviction measures, for more details).

Additionally, there are a number of other differences between the pilots and the National Statistics proven re-offending measure in terms of which offenders are counted within the cohort. These differences were set out in the PbR contracts; see Table A1 in the Appendix for more details.

Final (outcome) re-conviction measures for the prison pilots

For Peterborough prison the outcome measure is the frequency of re-conviction events(^2) (based on offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court within those 12 months or a further 6 month period). This is often referred to as a frequency measure. Success of each Peterborough cohort will be determined by comparison with a control group (of comparable offenders from across the country), and the results will be published separately.

For Doncaster prison the outcome measure is the proportion of offenders who commit one or more offences in the 12 months following release from prison and are convicted at court in those 12 months or in a further 6 months.

(^2) If an offender is re-convicted of multiple offences on one sentencing occasion, this counts as one re-conviction event. This is often referred to as a binary measure. Success will be determined by comparison with the re-conviction rate in the baseline year of 2009.

**Interim re-conviction measures for the prison pilots**

In publishing these interim figures MoJ aims to give the most useful figures for as much of each cohort as possible at each point in time.

Initially, this is done by providing figures based on periods half the length of those that will be used for the final results, for an increasing proportion of each cohort. These cover offences committed in the 6 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 6 months or in a further 3 month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

Subsequently, when the data become available, we provide figures based on the full period used for the final results: covering offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 month period, again for an increasing proportion of the cohort.

These figures are updated on a quarterly basis. See Table A3 in the Appendix for a timeline of the publication of these results.

The figures for Peterborough in this bulletin are 12 month re-conviction figures. They cover offenders released in the first 19 months of the cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 22 months).

For Doncaster, the figures presented here show 12 month re-conviction rates for the first time. They cover offenders released in the first 6 months of the cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 12 months).

**Interpreting interim re-conviction figures**

The interim re-conviction figures presented in this statistical bulletin give an indication of progress in the pilots to date. However, care should be taken when interpreting these interim figures for the following reasons:

- Figures for both pilots are based on incomplete cohorts;
- For the Peterborough pilot, success will be determined based on comparison with a control group of comparable offenders from across the country, which is not available for these interim results;

Users should therefore be aware that the figures presented provide our best assessment of change at this point in time. The final results will be available in summer 2014. Results

Peterborough

The interim figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month re-conviction figures for offenders released from Peterborough in the first 19 months of the cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 22 months). For comparison, we have provided equivalent figures for the five years prior to the pilots(^3).

Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of similar offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the frequency of re-conviction events is 10% lower for the Peterborough cohort than for the control group. It is not possible to replicate that comparison for these interim figures. Instead, in order to provide some context for the Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local(^4) prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster.

(^3) Figures for Sep09-Jun11 overlap with the pilot cohort 1 period itself; therefore they should not be used as a baseline for comparison. They have been included in the published figures for transparency.

(^4) Since HMP Peterborough is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex D for a definition of local prison. Table 1 and Figure 1: Peterborough (and national equivalent) interim re-conviction figures using a partial (19 month) cohort and a 12 month re-conviction period

| Discharge Period | No. of offenders | Re-conviction Rate | Frequency of re-conviction events per 100 offenders | No. of offenders | Re-conviction Rate | Frequency of re-conviction events per 100 offenders | |------------------|------------------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------|------------------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | Sep05-Mar07 | 724 | 56.2% | 143 | 29,358 | 56.5% | 133 | | Sep06-Mar08 | 868 | 56.6% | 154 | 29,373 | 57.0% | 142 | | Sep07-Mar09 | 1,030 | 55.9% | 153 | 32,329 | 56.9% | 146 | | Sep08-Mar10 | 980 | 54.8% | 163 | 32,756 | 55.3% | 146 | | Sep09-Mar11 | 845 | 52.9% | 151 | 30,525 | 55.8% | 155 | | Sep10-Mar12 | 844 | 53.1% | 148 | 29,798 | 55.7% | 160 |

Table 1 above shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 9 September 2010 and 31 March 2012 (the first 19 months of cohort 1), there were an average of 148 re-conviction events per 100 offenders. This compares to an average of 163 re-conviction events per 100 offenders released from Peterborough between September 2008 and March 2010; a fall of 9%.

Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 10% from 146 to 160 re-conviction events per 100 offenders.

These interim figures show a fall in the frequency of re-conviction events at Peterborough while nationally there has been a substantial rise which is our best assessment of change at this point in time (see the section Interpreting interim re-conviction figures). The final results will be available in summer 2014. Doncaster

The interim figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month re-conviction figures for offenders released from Doncaster in the first 6 months of the cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 12 months). For comparison, we have provided equivalent figures for the five years prior to the pilot and equivalent national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local(^5) prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster.

Success of the Doncaster pilot will be measured against a baseline of calendar year 2009, with the target met if the re-conviction rate for cohort 1 is 5 percentage points lower than it was in 2009.

Table 2 and Figure 2: Doncaster (and national equivalent) interim 12-month re-conviction figures for offenders released in the first 6 months of the cohort 1 period

| Discharge Period | Doncaster | National | |------------------|-----------|----------| | | No. of offenders | Re-conviction Rate | No. of offenders | Re-conviction Rate | | Oct06-Mar07 | 739 | 59.7% | 12,585 | 56.9% | | Oct07-Mar08 | 636 | 63.7% | 13,868 | 58.0% | | Oct08-Mar09 | 669 | 60.1% | 14,324 | 57.0% | | Oct09-Mar10 | 718 | 57.7% | 14,184 | 55.6% | | Oct10-Mar11 | 675 | 53.8% | 13,712 | 56.1% | | Oct11-Mar12 | 719 | 53.8% | 13,903 | 54.1% |

(^5) Since HMP Doncaster is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex D for a definition of local prison. Table 2 above shows a 12 month re-conviction rate of 53.8% for offenders released from Doncaster between October 2011 and March 2012 (the first 6 months of cohort 1).

This compares to 60.1% for offenders released between October 2008 and March 2009 (a fall of 6.3 percentage points), and 57.7% for those released between October 2009 and March 2010 (a fall of 3.8 percentage points). We have compared to these figures as they are the closest comparable periods to the baseline period of calendar year 2009.

Nationally the equivalent figures show a re-conviction rate of 54.1% for offenders released between October 2011 and March 2012. This represents a fall of 2.9 percentage points compared with offenders released between October 2008 and March 2009 (57.0%) and a fall of 1.5 percentage points compared with those released from October 2009 to March 2010 (55.6%).

These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in time (see the section *Interpreting interim re-conviction figures*). The final results will be available in summer 2014.

## Appendix

### Table A1: Comparison of PbR re-conviction and National Statistics proven re-offending measures

| National Statistics measure of proven re-offending (for any prison) | PbR prison pilot re-conviction measures | Doncaster (cohort 1) | |---|---|---| | **The cohort** | Male offenders aged 18 or over discharged from Peterborough prison between 9 September 2010 and 1 July 2012 after serving sentences of less than 12 months. Differences from National Statistics:

- Excludes those who serve the whole of their custodial sentence on remand
- Excludes foreign national offenders recorded as having been deported on release from prison
- Includes those in prison for breach | Male offenders aged 18 or over discharged from Doncaster prison between 1 October 2011 and 30 September 2012 regardless of sentence length. Differences from National Statistics:
- Excludes those who serve the whole of their custodial sentence on remand
- Excludes foreign national offenders recorded as having been deported on release from prison | | **The period to measure re-convictions/re-offending** | 12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be proven (through conviction at court or a caution) | 12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be re-convicted\
  Note: excludes cautions | 12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be re-convicted\
  Note: excludes cautions | | **The headline measure** | Proportion of offenders who commit one or more proven re-offences | Frequency of re-conviction events | Proportion of offenders re-convicted of one or more offences | | **What counts** | Offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and proven by conviction at court or a caution either in those 12 months or in a further 6 months | Any re-conviction event (sentencing occasion) relating to offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 months\
  Note: excludes cautions | Offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 months\
  Note: excludes cautions | OGRS score data

Re-offending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example offenders with a large number of previous convictions are more likely to re-offend than those with fewer previous convictions, and changes in re-conviction rates over time can be related to changes in the mix of offenders being worked with rather than a real change in the level of their re-offending.

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)(^6) is a predictor of re-offending based on age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors known to be associated with the likelihood of re-offending. OGRS scores range from 0 to 1, with a lower score representing a lower likelihood of re-offending. The scores can be used to compare the relative likelihood of re-offending either over time or between different groups of offenders, with a higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less likely to re-offend. For example if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this means that Offender Group A are less likely to re-offend.

Tables A2a and A2b show the average OGRS scores for each of the offender groups that are measured in the tables above. These include offenders released from Peterborough and Doncaster prisons as well as those for the equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are approximate because a small minority of offenders from each group are not included due to some data being unavailable.

Table A2a: Peterborough (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for offenders released in the first 19 months of the cohort 1 period

| Discharge Period | Average OGRS score | |------------------|--------------------| | | Peterborough | National | | Sep05-Mar07 | 0.50 | 0.53 | | Sep06-Mar08 | 0.50 | 0.53 | | Sep07-Mar09 | 0.50 | 0.52 | | Sep08-Mar10 | 0.50 | 0.52 | | Sep09-Mar11 | 0.48 | 0.52 | | Sep10-Mar12 | 0.49 | 0.52 |

(^6) For more details on OGRS see Ministry of Justice Research Summary 7/09 OGRS 3: the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale at: webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110201125714/http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/offender-assessment-system.htm Table A2b: Doncaster (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for offenders released in the first 6 months of the cohort 1 period

| Discharge Period | Doncaster | National | |------------------|-----------|----------| | Oct06-Mar07 | 0.56 | 0.54 | | Oct07-Mar08 | 0.59 | 0.53 | | Oct08-Mar09 | 0.58 | 0.53 | | Oct09-Mar10 | 0.56 | 0.52 | | Oct10-Mar11 | 0.57 | 0.52 | | Oct11-Mar12 | 0.54 | 0.52 |

Table A3: Timeline for publication of interim re-conviction figures

| | April 2014 | July 2014 | |------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Peterborough | 12 month re-conviction figures for entire cohort 1 (a 22 month cohort) | | | Doncaster | 12 month re-conviction figures for 9 months of cohort 1 | 12 month re-conviction results for entire cohort 1 (a 12 month cohort) |

Table A4: Other information on the pilots

| Prison / Area | Start date of pilot | Length of pilot | Number of eligible participants for Cohort 1 | Number of eligible participants to date for Cohort 2 | |--------------------------------|---------------------|-----------------|---------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Peterborough Social Impact Bond (SIB) | 9 September 2010 | Six years | 1,034<sup>7</sup> | 660<sup>8</sup> | | HMP Doncaster | 1 October 2011 | Four years | 1,472<sup>9</sup> | 1,230<sup>10</sup> |

<sup>7</sup> Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 9 September 2010 to 1 July 2012. <sup>8</sup> Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 2 July 2012 to 30 September 2013. <sup>9</sup> Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 1 October 2011 to 30 September 2012. <sup>10</sup> Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 1 October 2012 to 30 September 2013. This is the entire Doncaster pilot cohort 2 period, but the figure is provisional at this stage and subject to revision. Contact points

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

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Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

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Mike Elkins Ministry of Justice Justice Statistics Analytical Services 7th Floor 102 Petty France London SW1H 9AJ Tel: 020 3334 2946

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