Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, January 2016 to March 2016

Main points

This bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution in the period January to March 2016. The proven reoffending methodology changed in October 2017. For more information about the changes see the October 2017 publication.

The overall proven reoffending rate was 29.6%

The overall proven reoffending rate has remained unchanged from the previous quarter (a 0.02 percentage point increase) and has decreased by around 2 percentage points since 2005. Over time the rate has fluctuated around 29% to 32%.

Adult offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 28.7%

The adult proven reoffending rate has remained unchanged from the previous quarter (a 0.01 percentage change increase) and has decreased by up to 1 percentage point since 2005. The rate has remained broadly flat over time, fluctuating between 28% and 31%.

Juvenile offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 42.3%

The juvenile reoffending rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter and around 4-5 percentage points since 2005. However, the size of the cohort has fallen by around 80% since 2005.

Adults released from custody or court orders had a proven reoffending rate of 37.4%

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody or court orders was 37.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and around 4-5 percentage points from 2005.

This bulletin, associated tables and data tools present the proportion of offenders who reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, demographics, individual prisons, probation area, local authorities and youth offending teams. For technical details please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.

For any feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at Statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk How is proven reoffending measured?

An offender enters the cohort if they were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court or received a reprimand or warning in a three month period: January to March 2016. It is important to note that this is not comparable to proven reoffending publications prior to October 2017, which reported on a 12 month cohort.

A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period that leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the diagram below.

Users should be cautious when making any comparison between cohorts before and after October 2015. This is because there is a change in data source from October 2015 onwards. In addition, users should be cautious when comparing the 3 monthly cohorts to one another (e.g. January to March 2016 to October to December 2015) – as due to the smaller cohort size, the measure is likely to be more variable than the previous 12 month cohort measure of reoffending.

For further details on this, and how proven reoffending is measured, please see the guide to proven reoffending statistics and ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and the effect of these changes’.

1. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders

29.6% of offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within a year

In January to March 2016 around 128,000 adult and juvenile offenders were cautioned(^1), received a non-custodial conviction at court or were released from custody. Around 38,000 of these offenders committed a proven reoffence within a year. This gives an overall proven reoffending rate of 29.6%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Over time the overall proven reoffending rate has fluctuated between 29% to 32%.

Figure 1: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, April 2005 to March 2016(^2) (Source: Table A1)

The proven reoffending rate for the 2015/16 annual cohort was 29.5%, slightly down from 2014/15.(^3)

Around 146,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year follow-up period, with those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.87 reoffences each. The average number of reoffences per reoffender has gradually increased since 2009 and is the highest since 2005.

In the January to March 2016 cohort, 83% were male and 17% were female, with the proportion of males in the cohort slightly higher than in 2005. Male offenders reoffended at a higher rate of 30.8% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 23.7%. Both rates have remained broadly stable since 2005.

(^1) Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles.

(^2) Data in the chart is based on financial years, therefore Q1= April-June, Q2 = July-September, Q3 = October-December and Q4 = January-March.

(^3) The 2015/16 annual cohort is based on two different data sources. Users should be careful when comparing to previous years. 2. Adult offenders

28.7% of adult offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within a year

Adult offenders accounted for 93% (around 119,000) of the January to March 2016 cohort and juvenile offenders accounted for 7% (around 9,000). Around 34,000 of all adult offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year, giving a proven reoffending rate of 28.7%. This is unchanged since last quarter.

Figure 2: Proportion of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by number of previous offences, January to March 2016 (Source: Table A5a)

The change in data source in October 2015 means users should remain cautious when comparing the latest quarter with results from quarters before October 2015. However, the adult reoffending rate has remained broadly flat since 2005, fluctuating between 28% and 31%. The proven reoffending rate for the 2016/16 annual adult cohort was 28.5%, down slightly from the previous year.

Around 132,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended in the January to March 2016 cohort committed on average 3.87 reoffences each. This has been increasing since July to September 2009.

Offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven reoffending than those with fewer previous offences. In the cohort, the proven reoffending rates for adults ranged from 7.3% for offenders with no previous offences to 49.9% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences made up 38% of all adult offenders in the cohort, but committed over 75% of all adult proven reoffences.

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4 A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. This means that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in Offender Management Statistics Quarterly and Criminal Justice Statistics. Please refer to the guide to proven reoffending statistics for further information. 3. Adjusted reoffending rates

When controlling for offender characteristics 28.4% of adult offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within a year

Adjusted proven reoffending rates for adults are calculated using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS4/G). OGRS4 is based on a well-established, peer reviewed methodology for assessing and representing reoffending risk. The raw rates have been adjusted to the 2011 calendar year, in line with the Payment by Result statistics.

Figure 3: The average OGRS scores (2011 adjusted) and the adjusted proven reoffending rate for adults, April 2005 to March 2016 (Source: Table A1)

Between 2005 and 2011 the average OGRS score increased, but since 2011 it has remained broadly flat. This indicates that between 2005 and 2011 the cohort had an increasing propensity to reoffend, but since 2011 this has since levelled off. As a result the raw reoffending rate for adults are adjusted upwards between 2005 and 2010 reflecting the cohort having a greater propensity to reoffend.

Following 2011 the raw rates and the adjusted rates have tracked each other more closely. For example, the raw reoffending rate for adults for the January to March 2016 period was 28.7%, but the adjusted rate was 28.4%.

This suggests that while raw reoffending rates have remained broadly flat since 2005 the adjusted rates have shown a decreasing trend to reflect the greater propensity to reoffend of cohorts over this time.

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*www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449357/research-analysis-offender-assessment-system.pdf* 4. Juvenile offenders

42.3% of juvenile offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within one year

Around 9,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in the January to March 2016 cohort and around 4,000 of them committed a reoffence. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 42.3%. While this is up 0.5 percentage points since last quarter, the new reoffending measure is likely to be more variable from quarter to quarter due to the smaller size of the cohorts.

Since 2005, the reoffending rate has increased by around 4-5 percentage points, but the size of the cohort has fallen by around 80% over the same period.

Figure 4: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by age, January to March 2016 (Source: Table A3)

The proven reoffending rate for the 2015/16 annual cohort for juveniles was 42.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points from 2014/15.

Around 15,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.86 reoffences each. Juvenile offenders with 11 or more previous offences had a higher reoffending rate than those with no previous offences – 76.7% compared to 23.6%.

Offenders aged 10 to 14 had the highest reoffending rate of any age group, with a reoffending rate of 43.1%. However, the number of offenders in this age group has fallen by around 87% since 2005. The reoffending rate for this age group overtook offenders aged 15 to 17 in 2013/14, who previously had a consistently higher reoffending rate but are now second highest. Figure 4 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with increasing age.

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6 Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old.

7 The Youth Justice Board statistical publication uses the annual cohort data to report on juvenile offending. 5. Index disposal(^a) - adults

Adults released from custody or starting court orders had a proven reoffending rate of 37.4%.

The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their index offence. For Proven Reoffending Statistics this is defined as caution, court order, custody, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge.

Figure 5: Proportion of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven reoffence, by custodial sentence length, April 2005 to March 2016 (Source: Table C2a)

For adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence Order) the proven reoffending rate was 33.4%. The rate for this group has declined since 2005 by around 4-5 percentage points.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 48.7%. The effect of changing data source in October 2015 is particularly noticeable among offenders discharged from custodial sentences of less than 12 months. This might be connected to the introduction of statutory supervision for this group. Investigation is ongoing, as more data becomes available.

The rate for those released from short sentences (less than 12 months) has been consistently higher compared to those released from longer sentences. Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months reoffended at a rate of 64.6%, compared to 29.9% for those who served determinate sentences of 12 months or more. The proven reoffending rate trend for adults released from custodial sentences of 12 months or more has been decreasing since 2010.

(^a) Proven reoffending rates by index disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further information see Annex D of the October 2016 publication (page 41) and the guide to proven reoffending statistics. 6. Index disposal – juveniles

Juvenile offenders given youth cautions had a proven reoffending rate of 29.8%

The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 29.8%. This has remained broadly flat since 2013, but has increased by around 2-3 percentage points since 2005. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and replaced with youth cautions.

Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A Youth Caution may be given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to prosecute.

Figure 6: Proportion of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, April 2005 to March 2016 (Source: Table C1b)

Between January and March 2016, 194 juvenile offenders were released from custody and 136 of these (70.1%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This represents a fall of approximately 4-6 percentage points since 2005 and an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. However, as previously noted, there is likely to be more variation with the new reoffending measure, from one quarter to another, due to the reduced size of the cohort. 7. Index offences

In the January to March 2016 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest reoffending rate at 50.8%.

The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the index offence. In the January to March 2016 adult cohort, offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest proven reoffending rate of 50.8%. The second highest reoffending rate for adult offenders was for those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ with a rate of 36.2%.

Figure 7: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, January to March 2016 (Source: Table A4a/b)

With the exception of index offences recorded as ‘Other’, those with the lowest rate of reoffending in the adult cohort had an index offence of ‘Fraud’ – reoffending at a rate of 11.4%. Additionally, the ‘Fraud’ index offence category saw the largest decrease and those with an index offence of ‘Violence against the Person’ saw the biggest increase since 2005.

In the juvenile cohort those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ had the highest proven reoffending rate at 51.9%, closely followed by those with an index offence of ‘Robbery’ at 49.3%. Those with the lowest rate had a ‘Sexual’ index offence (with the exception of the ‘Other’ index offence category) and reoffended at a rate of 14.6%. Further information

Accompanying files As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

- A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how proven reoffending is measured, and the data sources used.
- A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin.
- A number of data tools which provide proven reoffending data by demographics, offender history, individual prisons (available from January 2005 – September 2015) and probation area and geography.

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Contact Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

Tel: 020 3334 3536 Email: newsdesk@justice.gov.uk

Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical Services division of the Ministry of Justice:

Nick Mavron, Head of Prison, Probation, Reoffending and PbR Statistics Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ Email: Statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk

Next update: April 2018 URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

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