Early estimates of proven reoffending January to December 2010, England and Wales

Published 27 October 2011 Early estimates of proven re-offending: results from 2010

Early estimates of proven re-offending use shorter follow-up and waiting periods. This is intended to provide offender managers feedback on the proven re-offending trends of offenders they are working with in time for them to adjust or build on offender management operational policy.

Proven re-offending for these early estimates is measured in exactly the same way as for the headline proven re-offending measure except that the follow-up period and waiting period are both three months each. Therefore the early estimates provide 3 month proven re-offending rates (rather than the headline one year proven re-offending rate). Please see the definitions and measurements document for more information www.justice.gov.uk/publications/statistics-and-data/reoffending

Early estimates are presented for four particular offender groups who are subject to specific offender management arrangements. These are:

- offenders managed by the probation service,
- Prolific and other Priority Offenders (PPO) who are managed by a partnership of local front-line services,
- drug-misusing offenders who are managed by Drug Action Teams (DAT),
- young offenders who are managed by Youth Offending Teams (YOT).

Key Results

Probation trusts

Early estimates of proven re-offending ranged from 10.1 per cent to 19.7 per cent in the 35 probation trusts. Overall, 15 had lower early estimates of proven re-offending in 2010 than 2009, 20 had higher while none remained the same.

Compared with the predicted rate of re-offending, two trusts had significantly lower rates of re-offending than expected. These were Gloucestershire and Staffordshire and West Midlands. Three trusts had significantly higher rates of re-offending than expected. These were Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and West Mercia. Figure 1 shows trusts' re-offending rates compared to the predicted rate, by the expected number of re-offenders. Figure 1: Funnel plot showing changes in re-offending at the probation trust level Prolific and other Priority Offenders (PPO) Early estimates of proven re-offending ranged from 7.1 per cent to 100.0 per cent in the 173 local authorities with PPO offenders in 2010. PPO's in 37 local authorities showed lower early estimates of proven re-offending in 2010 than in 2009 and PPO's in 42 showed higher.

Drug misusing offenders Early estimates of proven re-offending ranged from 6.1 per cent to 66.7 per cent. Overall, 41 DATs had lower proven re-offending rates in 2010 than 2009 and 123 had higher.

Young offenders Early estimates of proven re-offending ranged from 2.3 per cent to 24.2 per cent. Overall, 48 YOTs showed lower proven re-offending rates in 2010 than 2009 and 109 showed higher.

List of quarterly tables

Table 1 Early estimates of proven adult re-offending by probation trust based on first commencement from each trust, 2009 – 2010

Table 2 Early estimates of proven re-offending of Prolific and other Priority Offenders by upper tier local authority, 2009 – 2010

Table 3 Early estimates of proven re-offending of drug-misusing offenders by Drug Action Team, 2009 - 2010

Table 4 Early estimates of proven juvenile re-offending, by Youth Offending Team, 2009 - 2010