Analysis of Gender as a Factor associated with Custodial Sentences for Breach of a Court order

Kathryn Hopkins, Miriam Light, and Jorgen Lovbakke, Ministry of Justice Analytical Services

Aim The aim of this analysis was to investigate whether gender is associated with being sentenced to custody for breach of a court order, independently of offence type, criminal history and other factors.

Approach This analysis used an extract from the Police National Computer (PNC) recording the sentence (disposal) given to all offenders convicted or cautioned for breach between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2011 plus their previous criminal history (38,041 offenders). The analysis looks specifically at sentences given for breach of a court order (community order, conditional discharge, and suspended sentence order). Where an offender had more than one breach in 2011, only the first sentence for breach is included in this analysis.

Logistic regression models were built using the PNC data to explore whether any independent associations were observed between main (index) offence type, criminal history, gender, age, nationality, ethnicity, and being sentenced to immediate custody. These models cannot account for all factors which were used in making sentencing decisions: for example there is no record of all aggravating and mitigating circumstances which were taken into account by the sentencing court, including the plea (guilty or not guilty), which is known to affect sentencing (MOJ, 2010). However, this approach shows which factors (out of all factors in the model) were independently associated with being sentenced to prison, and can highlight where further exploration may be warranted.

Results Of the 38,041 offenders included in the PNC extract, 5,526 were female (15% of the cohort) and 32,515 were male (85% of the cohort). The number and type of court order which was breached is shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Type of court order which was breached (first breach only) in England and Wales, 2011.

| Breach offence | No. | % | |--------------------------------|------|----| | Breach of a community order | 22,154 | 58 | | Breach of conditional discharge| 8,539 | 22 | | Breach of suspended sentence order | 7,348 | 19 | | **Total** | **38,041** | **100** |

Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

1 The sample was restricted to offenders where the offence that had been breached was the main (index) offence at the time of sentencing. Table 2 shows the sentences received by these offenders for the breach of a court order, by gender. The most frequent sentence for all offenders was ‘other’ (42%), followed by ‘new court order’ (37%), then ‘immediate custody’ (14%). ‘Other’ sentences included: order revoked; order varied; bound over; order to continue; order amended; no action on breach; and order extended. This suggests that the most common sentence for breach of a court order was a modification to the original order.

Fourteen per cent of offenders (n= 5,173) received an immediate custodial sentence for breach of the court order. Female offenders were less likely to receive immediate custody following a breach of a court order (9%, n = 497) than male offenders (14%, n = 4,676), although this was not adjusted for the type of index offence, criminal history, or other factors.

Fines, fully suspended sentences, and conditional and absolute discharges made up fewer than 10% of sentences received.

Table 2. Sentences received for breaching a court order, (first breach offence only) in England and Wales, 2011, by gender.

| Gender | Female | Male | Total | |--------|--------|------|-------| | Sentence | n | % | n | % | N | % | | Absolute discharge | 2 | \<0.1 | 20 | 0.1 | 22 | 0.1 | | Conditional discharge | 60 | 1.1 | 193 | 0.6 | 253 | 0.7 | | Fully suspended | 189 | 3.4 | 1,043 | 3.2 | 1,232 | 3.2 | | Fine | 225 | 4.1 | 1,114 | 3.4 | 1,339 | 3.5 | | Immediate custody | 497 | 9.0 | 4,676 | 14.4 | 5,173 | 13.6 | | Community sentence | 2,010 | 36.4 | 12,107 | 37.2 | 14,117 | 37.1 | | Other | 2,543 | 46.0 | 13,362 | 41.1 | 15,905 | 41.8 | | Total | 5,526 | 100 | 32,515 | 100 | 38,041 | 100 |

Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Table 3 shows the number and percentage of offenders that received an immediate custodial sentence by the type of court order breached. Offenders on suspended sentences were the most likely to receive a custodial sentence, with over half (54%) of this group being sentenced to custody. Community orders were the least likely to receive an immediate custodial sentence (2.5% were sentenced to custody), followed by offenders who had breached a conditional discharge (7.5% were sentenced to custody).

Table 3. Percentage of offenders sentenced to immediate custody for breach of a court order, (first breach offence only), in England and Wales, 2011 by type of court order breached.

| Breach offence | Number sentenced to custody | Total breaching court order | % sentenced to custody | |----------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------| | Breach of community order | 550 | 22,154 | 2.5 | | Breach of conditional discharge | 638 | 8,539 | 7.5 | | Breach of suspended sentence order | 3,985 | 7,348 | 54.2 | | Total sentenced to custody | 5,173 | 38,041 | 13.6 | The main (index) offence which resulted in the court order which was then breached is shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Main (index) offence committed by those who received a court order and later breached the court order

| Index offence | No. | % | |----------------------------------------------------|------|----| | Violence against the person | 3,111| 8 | | Sexual offences | 166 | \<1 | | Burglary | 1,936| 5 | | Robbery | 258 | \<1 | | Theft and handling stolen goods | 10,484| 28 | | Fraud and forgery | 1,091| 3 | | Criminal damage | 557 | 1 | | Drug offences | 3,522| 9 | | Other indictable(^3) offences | 2,163| 6 | | Indictable motoring offences | 225 | \<1 | | Summary offences excluding motoring | 12,400| 33 | | Summary motoring offences | 2,128| 6 | | **Total** | **38,041**| **100** |

*Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding*

The most frequently recorded main (index) offence (for which a court order was received and later breached) was Summary offences excluding motoring(^4) (33%), followed by Theft and handling stolen goods (28%). Less than one per cent of offenders who had breached a court order had an index offence for either Sexual offences, Robbery, or Indictable motoring offences.

Offenders breaching a court order were recorded as having an average (median(^5)) of 11 previous cautions and convictions each. Female offenders who breached a court order had fewer previous cautions and convictions recorded than male offenders (median of 10 compared with 12).

**Logistic regression model**

To test for independent associations with being sentenced to custody for breach of a court order, gender, age, ethnicity, previous criminal history, index offence type, breach offence type, and previous breaches were entered together into a logistic regression model(^6) with ‘sentenced to immediate custody’ (or not) as the outcome. Ethnicity was grouped into two categories (white: 84(^7) and Black, Asian, or Minority Ethnic (BAME): 16(^8) of the sample, respectively).

Results from the model are shown in Annex A. A summary follows:

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(^2) Offence types are ordered by the standard PNC variable offence class.

(^3) An indictable offence is a serious offence which can only be tried in the Crown Court (and not a Magistrates’ Court).

(^4) A Summary Offence is a less serious offence that is heard in a Magistrates’ Court (such as minor criminal damage or being drunk and disorderly).

(^5) Arithmetic mean 18.33 (SD 23.13), min 1.0, max 365.0.

(^6) Area Under the Curve (AUC) for test sample = 0.888 (95% CI: 0.881 - 0.894, p < 0.01).

(^7) n=31,855

(^8) n=6,186 Gender The odds of male offenders receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order were approximately 73% higher than the odds of female offenders receiving the same.

Age Each increasing year of age was independently associated with a less than 1% decrease in the odds of receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order.

Ethnicity The odds of BAME offenders receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order were approximately 39% higher than the odds of White offenders receiving the same.

Previous convictions and cautions The odds of receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order increased by approximately 1% for each previous conviction or caution recorded.

Main (index) offence The index offence type (which first resulted in a court order) was a predictor of receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order, with Theft and handling stolen goods, Burglary, and Robbery most likely to result in a custodial sentence for breach.

Type of court order breached Type of court order breached was a good predictor of custodial sentence with offenders who breached a suspended sentence order associated with an approximate 50 times higher odds of being sentenced to custody than offenders who breached a community order. Offenders who breached a conditional discharge were associated with approximately three times the odds of being sentenced to custody, compared with offenders who breached a community order.

Previous breaches Previous breaches were independently associated with receiving a custodial sentence, particularly breaches of the same court order (where the court order was imposed before 2011, the offender may have breached the sentence once or more before the breach offence in 2011 which is included in this study): an approximate 15% higher odds of receiving a custodial sentence was associated with each breach offence. Each breach of previous court orders was associated with an approximate 2% increase in the odds of receiving a custodial sentence.

Summary Male offenders were more likely to be sentenced to immediate custody for breaching a court order: the odds of male offenders receiving a custodial sentence was 73% higher than for female offenders.

A number of other factors were found to be predictive of custodial sentencing for breach offences: age; ethnicity; criminal history; index (main) offence type; type of court order breached; and number of previous breaches.

The differences in custodial sentencing rates may be due to factors which were not taken into account in the models. Sentencing outcomes may depend on a wide range of other factors, e.g. family responsibilities, mental health issues, and opportunities for diversion from custody. Annex A: Logistic regression model: sentenced to immediate custody for breach of a court order.

Logistic regression model (sentenced to custody or not) coefficient (B) standard error (S.E.) significance level, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Reference categories are labelled with (ref).

| Factor | B | S.E. | Sig. | OR | 95% CI Lower | 95% CI Upper | |--------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------|--------------| | Gender | | | | | | | | Female (ref) | n/a | n/a | \<0.01 | n/a | n/a | n/a | | Male | .547 | .061 | \<0.01 | 1.728 | 1.533 | 1.949 | | Age | | | | | | | | Age at index offence | -.007 | .002 | \<0.01 | .993 | .990 | .997 | | Ethnicity | | | | | | | | White (ref) | n/a | n/a | \<0.01 | n/a | n/a | n/a | | BAME | .332 | .049 | \<0.01 | 1.393 | 1.266 | 1.534 | | Previous convictions and cautions | | | | | | | | Number of previous convictions or cautions | .008 | .001 | \<0.01 | 1.008 | 1.006 | 1.010 | | Index offence (which resulted in a court order, which was later breached) | | | | | | | | Violence against the person (ref) | n/a | n/a | \<0.01 | n/a | n/a | n/a | | Sexual offences | -.246 | .296 | .406 | .782 | .438 | 1.397 | | Burglary | .542 | .092 | \<0.01 | 1.719 | 1.436 | 2.058 | | Robbery | .488 | .212 | .022 | 1.628 | 1.074 | 2.468 | | Theft and handling stolen goods | .668 | .070 | \<0.01 | 1.951 | 1.701 | 2.239 | | Fraud and forgery | .250 | .129 | .052 | 1.284 | .998 | 1.653 | | Criminal damage | .195 | .183 | .289 | 1.215 | .848 | 1.741 | | Drug offences | -.238 | .089 | .007 | .788 | .662 | .938 | | Other indictable offences | -.073 | .096 | .447 | .929 | .769 | 1.123 | | Indictable motoring offences | -.080 | .191 | .674 | .923 | .634 | 1.343 | | Summary offences excluding motoring | .000 | .069 | .995 | 1.000 | .874 | 1.145 | | Summary motoring offences | .121 | .098 | .214 | 1.129 | .932 | 1.367 | | Type of breach offence | | | | | | | | Breach of a community order (ref) | n/a | n/a | \<0.01 | n/a | n/a | n/a | | Breach of a conditional discharge | 1.149 | .062 | \<0.01 | 3.154 | 2.791 | 3.564 | | Breach of a suspended sentence order | 3.881 | .052 | \<0.01 | 48.473| 43.804 | 53.640 | | Previous breaches | | | | | | | | Number of breaches since index offence | .139 | .028 | \<0.01 | 1.149 | 1.087 | 1.215 | | Number of breaches before the index offence | .021 | .006 | \<0.01 | 1.021 | 1.010 | 1.033 | | (Constant) | n/a | | \<0.01 | .011 | n/a | n/a |

The odds ratio can be interpreted as the independent association of each factor in the model with the outcome (sentenced to immediate custody), whilst controlling for all other factors in the model. A significance level of less than 0.05 shows whether the factor was significantly associated with immediate custody (compared with the absence of the factor, or with the reference category). An odds ratio greater than one (1.0), for those factors which were significantly associated with immediate custody, demonstrates an independent association with increased odds of immediate custody, and an odds ratio less than one demonstrates an independent association with decreased odds of immediate custody.