Annex A

Interim reconviction figures for Peterborough Payment by Results pilot

Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin

28 April 2016 Annex A

Interim reconviction figures for Peterborough Payment by Results pilot

Background

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published “Breaking the Cycle: Effective Punishment, Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders” in December 2010. This Green Paper included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series of initial ‘payment by results’ (PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements by delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost.

The MoJ carried out two prison based PbR pilots in HMP Doncaster and HMP Peterborough.

The PbR pilot operating in HMP Peterborough began on 9 September 2010 and results for cohort 1 of this pilot were determined by an independent assessor and published on 7 August 2014. The final set of results for cohort 2 will also be determined by an independent assessor and will be published in the summer of 2016. A methodology report for assessing the impact of the pilot will be published alongside the final results for cohort 2.

The PbR pilot that operated in HMP Doncaster started in October 2011 and closed at the end of 2014. Results for cohort 1 were published in August 2014 and results for cohort 2 were published in July 2015.

This report presents the final set of interim results for the pilot in HMP Peterborough. The results are based on a 12 month reconviction measure which counts offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further six month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

Methodology

Offenders entered the PbR pilot after their first eligible release from Peterborough prison within the cohort period. Cohort 2 contains all eligible offenders released between 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014.

The prison pilots used a 12 month reconviction measure which differs from the National Statistics proven reoffending measure. The key difference is that reconvictions only count offences for which the offender was convicted at court, whereas the National Statistics proven reoffending measure also includes out of court disposals (cautions). The time periods, however, used for both measures are the same – offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the proven reoffending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further six month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

1 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-results-for-cohorts-1-payment-by-results-prison-pilots 2 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-pilot-cohort-2-hmp-doncaster-results The Peterborough pilot included male offenders aged 18 or over released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months only.

There are a number of other differences between the pilot and the National Statistics proven reoffending measure in terms of which offenders are counted within the cohort. These differences are set out in Table A1 of the Appendix.

**Final (outcome) reconviction measures for the prison pilot**

The outcome measure is the frequency of reconviction events(^3) (based on offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court within those 12 months or a further six month period). This is often referred to as a frequency measure. As with cohort 1, success of cohort 2 will be determined by comparison with a control group (of comparable offenders from across the country). Results for cohort 2 will be available in the summer of 2016 and will be determined by an independent assessor.

Users should, therefore, be aware that the figures presented here provide our best assessment of change at this point in time.

**Interim figures**

The cohort 2 figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month reconviction figures for all eligible offenders released from Peterborough in the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period. These are the full measurement periods, but they do not constitute the final results on which the outcome for cohort 2 will be assessed.

Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of similar offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the frequency of reconviction events is 10.0% lower for the Peterborough cohort 2 than for the control group, or 7.5% lower across Peterborough cohort 1 and cohort 2 combined. It is not possible to replicate that comparison for these interim figures. Instead, in order to provide some context for the Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local(^4) prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster(^5).

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(^3) If an offender is convicted of multiple offences on one sentencing occasion, this counts as one reconviction event.

(^4) Since HMP Peterborough is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex B in the Definitions and Measurement document for a definition of a local prison.

(^5) Since a PbR pilot was also ongoing in HMP Doncaster during the cohort period. Table 1 and Figure 1: Peterborough (and national equivalent) interim 12 month reconviction figures for offenders released during the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period

| Discharge period | Peterborough | National local prisons | |------------------|--------------|------------------------| | | Cohort size | Reconviction rate | Frequency of reconviction events per 100 offenders | Cohort size | Reconviction rate | Frequency of reconviction events per 100 offenders | | July07-July09 | 1,282 | 55.5% | 152 | 38,592 | 55.5% | 140 | | July08-July10 | 1,212 | 53.3% | 153 | 40,027 | 54.3% | 141 | | July09-July11 | 1,055 | 52.0% | 149 | 38,579 | 54.4% | 148 | | July10-July12 | 1,043 | 51.6% | 137 | 38,062 | 54.7% | 153 | | July11-July13 | 1,028 | 50.4% | 137 | 38,198 | 54.1% | 155 | | July12-July14 | 997 | 51.6% | 149 | 36,170 | 55.1% | 160 |

Table 1 shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014 (the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period), there were an average of 149 reconviction events per 100 offenders. This shows a decrease of 2.5%(^6) compared to an average of 153 reconviction events per 100 offenders released from Peterborough between July 2008 and July 2010(^7).

Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 13.8%(^8) from 141 to 160 reconviction events per 100 offenders.

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(^6) Due to a rounding effect (149 \\div 153 = 2.5%) drop.

(^7) July 2008 to July 2010 is used for comparison as it is the most recent period that does not overlap with the pilot cohort 1 period.

(^8) Due to a rounding effect (160 \\div 141 = 13.8%) rise. These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in time. The final results will be available in the summer of 2016.

## Appendix to Annex A

### Table A1: Comparison of Peterborough PbR reconviction and National Statistics proven reoffending measures

| National Statistics measure of proven reoffending (for any prison) | Peterborough PbR prison pilot reconviction measures | |---------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | **The cohort** | Male offenders aged 18 or over released from Peterborough prison between 9 September 2010 and 1 July 2012 (cohort 1) or 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014 (cohort 2), after serving sentences of less than 12 months. Differences from National Statistics:

- Excludes those who serve the whole of their custodial sentence on remand
- Excludes foreign national offenders recorded as having been deported on release from prison
- Includes those in prison for breach | | All offenders who were released from custody, over a 12 month period, regardless of sentence length. Excludes those in prison for breach | | | **The period to measure reconvictions/reoffending** | 12 months for offences to occur and a further six months for offences to be proven (through conviction at court or a caution) | | 12 months for offences to occur and a further six months for offences to be proven (through conviction at court or a caution) | 12 months for offences to occur and a further six months for offences to be reconvicted\
  Note: excludes cautions | | **The headline measure** | Proportion of offenders who commit one or more proven reoffences | | Proportion of offenders who commit one or more proven reoffences | Frequency of reconviction events | | **What counts** | Offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and proven by conviction at court or a caution either in those 12 months or in a further six months | | Offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and proven by conviction at court or a caution either in those 12 months or in a further six months | Any reconviction event (sentencing occasion) relating to offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further six months\
  Note: excludes cautions | OGRS score data

Reoffending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example offenders with a large number of previous convictions are more likely to reoffend than those with fewer previous convictions, and changes in reconviction rates over time can be related to changes in the mix of offenders being worked with rather than a real change in the level of their reoffending.

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)(^9) is a predictor of reoffending based on age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors known to be associated with the likelihood of reoffending. OGRS scores range from 0 to 1, with a lower score representing a lower likelihood of reoffending. The scores can be used to compare the relative likelihood of reoffending either over time or between different groups of offenders, with a higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less likely to reoffend. For example, if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this means that Offender Group A are less likely to reoffend.

Table A2 shows the average OGRS scores for each of the offender groups that are measured in table 1 above. These include offenders released from Peterborough prison as well as those for the equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are approximate because a small portion of offenders from each group are not included due to some data being unavailable.

Table A2: Peterborough (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for offenders released during the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period

| Discharge period | Average OGRS score | |------------------|--------------------| | | Peterborough | National | | July07-July09 | 0.49 | 0.51 | | July08-July10 | 0.49 | 0.51 | | July09-July11 | 0.49 | 0.51 | | July10-July12 | 0.48 | 0.51 | | July11-July13 | 0.49 | 0.51 | | July12-July14 | 0.50 | 0.52 |

Table A3: Other information on the pilot

| Prison | Start date of pilot | Number of eligible participants for Cohort 1 | Number of eligible participants for Cohort 2 | |-------------------------------|---------------------|---------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | Peterborough Social Impact Bond (SIB) | 9 September 2010 | 1,034(^{10}) | 997(^{11}) |

(^9) For more details on OGRS see Ministry of Justice Research Summary 7/09 OGRS 3: the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale at: webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110201125714/http:/www.justice.gov.uk/publications/offender-assessment-system.htm

(^{10}) Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 9 September 2010 to 1 July 2012.

(^{11}) Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 2 July 2012 to 1 July 2014. Contact points

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