Reducing the spread of COVID-19

We want to keep the R number below 1.0. R is the average number of additional people infected by each infected person.

0.25% Average proportion of the community in England 4 May - 17 May that had COVID-19

61,000 Estimated number of new COVID-19 infections in the community per week in England

137,000 Number of people in the community in England 4 May - 17 May who had COVID-19

Infection survey (England)

0.7 - 1.0 Current R (UK)

If R is above 1.0 the number of people infected will grow

R = 3.0

R = 1.0

Source: COVID-19 Infection Survey, Office for National Statistics. Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. Further details on data sources can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurvey/pilot/england21may2020 Testing and new cases (UK)

Testing Some people are tested more than once.

140,497 tests as of 22 May 3,231,921 tests in total

Confirmed cases Only includes cases tested positive. There are more cases than confirmed here.

3,287 cases confirmed as of 22 May 254,195 cases confirmed in total

Source: NHS England and devolved administrations. Further details on data sources can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences Data from Hospitals

Estimated admissions with COVID-19 (England)

- 713 on 20 May
- Down from 788 on 13 May

Of mechanical ventilator beds occupied with COVID-19 patients (UK)

- 13% on 21 May
- Down from 17% on 14 May

Source: NHS England and devolved administrations. Further details on data sources can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences People in Hospital with COVID-19 (UK)

9,307 people are in hospital with COVID-19, down from 10,781 this time last week.

Source: NHS England and devolved administrations. Further details on data sources can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences Daily COVID-19 deaths confirmed with a positive test (UK)

The numbers presented here from the Department for Health and Social Care relate to deaths where COVID-19 was confirmed with a positive test.

On 22 May DHSC reported

351 Daily COVID-19 deaths confirmed with a positive test

36,393 Total COVID-19 deaths confirmed with a positive test

Weekly registered deaths from the Office for National Statistics include cases where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate but was not confirmed with a test. On 8th May, ONS reported 41,020 cumulative registered deaths from COVID-19. This was 9,779 more than the DHSC figure for the same date.

Source: DHSC, sourced from NHSE, PHE, devolved administrations. Further details on data sources can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences Social distancing (Great Britain)

Opinions and Lifestyle Survey 14 May to 17 May 2020

90% of adults avoided contact with vulnerable people

97% of adults said they had tried to stay at least 2 metres away from other people when outside their home

86% of adults left their home. The most common reasons were shopping for basic necessities and for exercise

41% of employed adults worked from home compared to around 12% last year

Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, Office for National Statistics. Further details on data sources can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences Reducing the Spread of Covid-19

COVID-19 Infection Survey (England): The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is initially conducting a pilot survey with 10,000 households in England. The sample size is currently increasing to this level. All individuals aged two years and over in sampled households were invited to provide samples for testing. This means approximately 25,000 people will be involved in the pilot study. Following completion of the pilot survey, the full survey will expand the size of the sample over the next 12 months and look to cover people across all four UK nations. This study addresses an important clinical priority: finding out how many people across the UK have a COVID-19 infection at a given point in time, or at least test positive for it, either with or without symptoms; how many new cases have occurred in a given time period; and how many people are ever likely to have had the infection. It will also enable estimates of the rate of transmission of the infection, often referred to as ‘R’. ONS have published further information on the strengths and limitations of the estimates. All estimates are subject to uncertainty, given that a sample is only part of the wider population. The 95% confidence intervals are calculated so that, if we were to repeat this study many times, with many different samples of households, then 95% of the time the confidence intervals would contain the true value that we are seeking to estimate. The estimated new COVID-19 infections per week is based on results of people tested throughout the study period, which began 26 April.

Current R (UK): R is not usually a useful measure on its own and needs to be considered alongside the number of new cases. R is the average number of secondary cases directly generated by an individual case. The R number does not estimate how many people are currently infected. R is estimated from multiple data sources, including ICU/hospital admissions, ONS/CQC death figures, behavioural contact surveys, and others.

Testing and new cases (UK) Tests: The number of tests includes; (i) tests processed through our labs, and (ii) tests sent to individuals at home or to satellite testing locations. Cases: Cases are reported when lab tests are completed. This may be a few days after initial testing. Chart date corresponds to the date tests were reported as of the 24 hours before 9am that day. Only includes cases tested positive. There are more cases than confirmed here.

Data from hospitals Estimated daily admissions with COVID-19 (England): England data captures people admitted to hospital who already had a confirmed COVID-19 status at point of admission, and adds those who tested positive in the previous 24 hours whilst in hospital. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are assumed to have been admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis. Annex: Statistical notes

Data from hospitals (cont.)

Ventilator beds with COVID-19 patients (UK): Reporting on bed capacity has shifted from critical care bed capacity to ventilator bed capacity, which is a clearer indicator of our ability to care for COVID-19 patients. Overall percentage of Mechanical Ventilation beds that are occupied by COVID patients, by nation. This measure includes both Nightingale hospitals and Dragon's Heart/Ysbyty Calon y Ddraig field hospital. The trends in this graph are impacted by both reserved and devolved policies. For Wales, mechanical ventilator beds and critical care beds are identical. For Scotland, mechanical ventilator beds and critical care beds are identical. Scottish figures include a small number of patients who are not on mechanical ventilation. For England, the denominator is the number of beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation. The numerator is the number of COVID patients in beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation. For Northern Ireland, the denominator is the number of beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation, based on its current maximum surge capacity. The numerator is the number of COVID patients in beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation. On 22 May Northern Ireland's spare mechanical ventilation beds figures were revised.

People in hospital with COVID-19 (UK) Community hospitals are included in figures for Wales from 23 April onwards. England and Scottish data includes ‘confirmed’ cases, Northern Ireland and Welsh data includes ‘confirmed’ and ‘suspected’ cases. Due to the way Northern Ireland report, the UK figure is calculated by taking the most recent day for Great Britain plus the previous day for Northern Ireland. National data may not be directly comparable as data about COVID-19 patients in hospitals is collected differently across nations.

Daily COVID-19 deaths confirmed with a positive test (UK) Figures on deaths relate to those who have tested positive for COVID-19. The 7-day rolling average (mean) of daily deaths is plotted on the last day of each seven day period. UK deaths are reported when paperwork is filed, rather than time of death. Deaths are reported in the 24 hours up to 5pm on the previous day.

Social distancing Opinions and Lifestyle survey: Information on the survey can be found here. Guidance on staying at home varies in England, Scotland and Wales. Results in this weekly bulletin are presented for Great Britain only. Employed adults are those employed or self-employed; doing casual work for payment; or doing unpaid/voluntary work in the previous week. The 2019 estimate of people working from home is taken from the Annual Population Survey, and is not directly comparable to the Opinions and Lifestyle survey estimate.