Annex A

Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough Payment by Results pilot

Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin

28 January 2016 Annex A

Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough Payment by Results pilot

Background

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published “Breaking the Cycle: Effective Punishment, Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders” in December 2010. This Green Paper included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series of initial ‘payment by results’ (PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements by delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost.

The MoJ currently has a prison based PbR pilot operating in HMP Peterborough, which began on 9 September 2010. There was also a PbR pilot operating in HMP Doncaster, which started in October 2011 and closed at the end of 2014.

The final results for the Peterborough pilot will be based on a 12 month re-conviction measure which counts offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

Given the high level of public interest in relation to the reforms set out in the MoJ publication “Transforming Rehabilitation – a strategy for reform”, the MoJ began publishing Peterborough pilot interim re-conviction figures for cohort 1 from June 2013 and interim figures for cohort 2 from July 2014. These were the earliest opportunities that MoJ statisticians judged the number of offenders being reported on to be large enough to provide robust interim figures.

The cohort 1 results of the Peterborough pilot were published on 7 August 2014. As a consequence of the necessary time lag for measuring re-convictions, final results for cohort 2 will be available in summer 2016.

For the Doncaster pilot, results for cohort 1 were published in August 2014 and results for cohort 2 were published in July 2015.

These figures are updated in this dedicated annex to each edition of the MoJ’s quarterly Proven Re-offending Statistics bulletin.

Methodology

Offenders enter the PbR pilots after their first eligible release from the prison within the cohort period. Cohort 2 contains all eligible offenders released between 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014.

The prison pilots use a 12 month re-conviction measure which differs from the National Statistics proven re-offending measure. The key difference is that re-convictions only count offences for which the offender was convicted at court, whereas the National

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1 [www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-results-for-cohorts-1-payment-by-results-prison-pilots](http://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-results-for-cohorts-1-payment-by-results-prison-pilots) 2 [www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-pilot-cohort-2-hmp-doncaster-results](http://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-pilot-cohort-2-hmp-doncaster-results) Statistics proven re-offending measure also includes out of court disposals (cautions). However, the time periods used for both measures are the same – offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the proven re-offending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further six month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

The Peterborough pilot includes offenders released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months only.

Additionally, there are a number of other differences between the pilot and the National Statistics proven re-offending measure in terms of which offenders are counted within the cohort. These differences were set out in the PbR pilot contract; see Table A1 in the Appendix for more details.

**Final (outcome) re-conviction measures for the prison pilot**

The outcome measure is the frequency of re-conviction events(^3) (based on offences committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court within those 12 months or a further 6 month period). This is often referred to as a frequency measure. Success of each cohort will be determined by comparison with a control group (of comparable offenders from across the country).

**Interim re-conviction measures for the Peterborough pilot**

In publishing these interim figures, MoJ aims to give the most useful figures for as much of each cohort as possible at a given point in time.

Initially, this is done by providing figures based on re-conviction periods half the length of those used for the final results, for an increasing proportion of each cohort. These cover offences committed in the six months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those six months or in a further three month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).

Subsequently, when the data become available, we provide figures based on the full re-conviction period used for the final results; covering offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further six month period, again for an increasing proportion of the cohort.

These figures are updated on a quarterly basis. See Table A3 in the Appendix for a timeline of the publication of these figures.

The interim figures for Peterborough in this bulletin correspond to 12 month re-conviction figures. They cover offenders released in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period.

**Interpreting interim re-conviction figures**

The interim re-conviction figures presented here give an indication of progress for the second cohort of the Peterborough pilot to date. However, care should be taken when interpreting these interim figures for the following reasons:

(^3) If an offender is re-convicted of multiple offences on one sentencing occasion, this counts as one re-conviction event. • Success for the pilot cohort will be determined based on comparison with a control group of comparable offenders from across the country, which is not available for these interim figures.

• The current interim measure is only based on offenders from the first 21 months (88%) of the complete cohort period of 24 months.

Users should therefore be aware that the figures presented provide our best assessment of change at this point in time. The final results will be available in summer 2016.

Interim figures

The cohort 2 figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month re-conviction figures for offenders released from Peterborough in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period.

Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of similar offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the frequency of re-conviction events is 10.0% lower for the Peterborough cohort 2 than for the control group, or 7.5% lower across Peterborough cohort 1 and cohort 2 combined. It is not possible to replicate that comparison for these interim figures. Instead, in order to provide some context for the Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster.

Table 1 and Figure 1: Peterborough (and national equivalent) interim 12 month re-conviction figures for offenders released in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period

| Discharge period | Peterborough | National local prisons | |------------------|--------------|------------------------| | | Cohort size | Re-conviction rate | Frequency of re-conviction events per 100 offenders | Cohort size | Re-conviction rate | Frequency of re-conviction events per 100 offenders | | July07-Mar09 | 1,143 | 55.6% | 153 | 36,076 | 56.3% | 143 | | July08-Mar10 | 1,106 | 53.9% | 156 | 37,244 | 54.8% | 142 | | July09-Mar11 | 963 | 52.2% | 150 | 35,213 | 55.0% | 151 | | July10-Mar12 | 893 | 52.7% | 143 | 33,969 | 55.3% | 156 | | July11-Mar13 | 922 | 50.7% | 136 | 33,612 | 54.3% | 157 | | July12-Mar14 | 902 | 51.7% | 151 | 31,352 | 55.2% | 161 |

4 Since HMP Peterborough is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex B in the Definitions and Measurement document for a definition of local prison.

5 Since a PbR pilot was also ongoing in HMP Doncaster during the cohort period. Table 1 shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 2 July 2012 and 31 March 2014 (the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period), there were an average of 151 re-conviction events per 100 offenders. This shows a decrease of 3.1%(^6) compared to an average of 156 re-conviction events per 100 offenders released from Peterborough between July 2008 and March 2010(^7).

Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 13.4%(^8) from 142 to 161 re-conviction events per 100 offenders.

These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in time (see the section *Interpreting interim re-conviction figures*). The final results will be available in summer 2016.

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(^6) Due to a rounding effect (151 \\div 156 = 3.1%) drop.

(^7) July 2008 to March 2010 is used for comparison as it is the most recent period that does not overlap with the pilot cohort 1 period.

(^8) Due to a rounding effect (161 \\div 142 = 13.4%) rise. Appendix to Annex A

Table A1: Comparison of Peterborough PbR re-conviction and National Statistics proven re-offending measures

| The cohort | National Statistics measure of proven re-offending (for any prison) | Peterborough PbR prison pilot re-conviction measures | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | | All offenders who were discharged from custody, over a 12 month period, regardless of sentence length. Excludes those in prison for breach | Male offenders aged 18 or over discharged from Peterborough prison between 9 September 2010 and 1 July 2012 (cohort 1) or 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014 (cohort 2), after serving sentences of less than 12 months. Differences from National Statistics:\
• Excludes those who serve the whole of their custodial sentence on remand\
• Excludes foreign national offenders recorded as having been deported on release from prison\
• Includes those in prison for breach |

| The period to measure re-convictions/re-offending | 12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be proven (through conviction at court or a caution) | 12 months for offences to occur and a further 6 months for offences to be re-convicted\
Note: excludes cautions |

| The headline measure | Proportion of offenders who commit one or more proven re-offences | Frequency of re-conviction events |

| What counts | Offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and proven by conviction at court or a caution either in those 12 months or in a further 6 months | Any re-conviction event (sentencing occasion) relating to offences committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 months\
Note: excludes cautions | OGRS score data

Re-offending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example offenders with a large number of previous convictions are more likely to re-offend than those with fewer previous convictions, and changes in re-conviction rates over time can be related to changes in the mix of offenders being worked with rather than a real change in the level of their re-offending.

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)(^9) is a predictor of re-offending based on age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors known to be associated with the likelihood of re-offending. OGRS scores range from 0 to 1, with a lower score representing a lower likelihood of re-offending. The scores can be used to compare the relative likelihood of re-offending either over time or between different groups of offenders, with a higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less likely to re-offend. For example, if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this means that Offender Group A are less likely to re-offend.

Table A2 shows the average OGRS scores for each of the offender groups that are measured in table 1 above. These include offenders released from Peterborough prison as well as those for the equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are approximate because a small portion of offenders from each group are not included due to some data being unavailable.

**Table A2: Peterborough (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for offenders released in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period**

| Discharge period | Average OGRS score | |------------------|--------------------| | | Peterborough | National | | July07-Mar09 | 0.51 | 0.53 | | July08-Mar10 | 0.51 | 0.53 | | July09-Mar11 | 0.49 | 0.53 | | July10-Mar12 | 0.49 | 0.53 | | July11-Mar13 | 0.50 | 0.53 | | July12-Mar14 | 0.50 | 0.53 |

(^9) For more details on OGRS see Ministry of Justice Research Summary 7/09 OGRS 3: the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale at: www.webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110201125714/http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/offender-assessment-system.htm Table A3: Timeline for publication of re-conviction figures

| Prison | April 2016 | |-------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Peterborough | 12 month re-conviction figures for the entire cohort 2 (a 24 month cohort) |

Table A4: Other information on the pilot

| Prison | Start date of pilot | Number of eligible participants for Cohort 1 | Number of eligible participants to date for Cohort 2 | |-------------------------------|---------------------|---------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Peterborough Social Impact Bond (SIB) | 9 September 2010 | 1,034<sup>10</sup> | 997<sup>11</sup> |

<sup>10</sup> Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 9 September 2010 to 1 July 2012.

<sup>11</sup> Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 2 July 2012 to 1 July 2014. This is the entire Peterborough pilot cohort 2 period, but the figure is provisional at this stage and subject to revision. Contact points

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

Tel: 020 3334 3536

Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to:

Nick Mavron Ministry of Justice Justice Statistics Analytical Services 7th Floor 102 Petty France London SW1H 9AJ Tel: 020 3334 3972

General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed to: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

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