Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, October 2015 to December 2015

Main points This bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution in the period October to December 2015. This is the first publication of proven reoffending statistics based on the new methodology, as announced in ‘Response to consultation on changes to proven reoffending statistics’ in April 2016 and previous publications. The main changes to the methodology are:

- **Changing to a three month cohort** instead of the previous 12 month cohort. The publication reports on offenders who are released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution within a three month period, for all measures of reoffending, including for juveniles.

- Production of **adjusted reoffending rates** for adults (alongside the raw rates), using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS4/G) to take account of the influence that differences in offender mix can have on the binary reoffending rates.

- A change from **calendar year to financial year for annual figures**. Annual figures are formed by taking a weighted average of the four preceding 3 month offender cohorts. Figures for the 2015/16 financial year will be published in January 2018.

In addition the **data source** used to compile the statistics has changed from October 2015 following probation services reforms. For more information on the impact of these changes please see ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and the effect of these changes’.

This bulletin, associated tables and data tools present the proportion of offenders who reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, demographics, individual prisons, probation area, local authorities and youth offending teams. For technical details and more information on how the measurement of proven reoffending has changed please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics. This bulletin also contains the number of Serious Further offences (Annex A).

For any feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at Statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk How is proven reoffending measured?

An offender enters the cohort if they are released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court or received a reprimand or warning in a three month period: **October 2015 to December 2015**. It is important to note that this is not comparable to previous proven reoffending publications which reported on a 12 month cohort.

A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period that leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the diagram below.

The change from 12 month offender cohorts to 3 month offender cohorts' results in a greater proportion of prolific offenders and therefore an increase in the reoffending rate of around 4-5 percentage points for both adults and juveniles. The change in data source in October 2015 also introduces potential variability. Therefore users should be cautious when making any comparison between the October to December 2015 cohort and earlier cohorts. For further details on this, and how proven reoffending is measured, please see the guide to proven reoffending statistics and ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and the effect of these changes’.

1. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders

29.6% of offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

In October to December 2015 around 130,000 adult and juvenile offenders were cautioned(^1), received a non-custodial conviction at court or released from custody. Around 39,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This gives an overall proven reoffending rate of 29.6%.

Over time the overall proven reoffending rate has fluctuated around 29% to 32%.

Figure 1: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven re-offence, April 2005 to December 2015(^2) (Source: Table A1)

Around 148,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year follow-up period, with those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.83 reoffences each. The average number of reoffences per reoffender has gradually increased since 2009 and is the highest since 2005.

In the October to December 2015 cohort, 83% were male and 17% were female, a split that has changed little since 2005. Male offenders reoffended at a higher rate of 30.9% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 23.4%. Both rates have remained broadly stable since 2005.

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(^1) Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles.

(^2) Data in the chart is based on financial years, therefore Q1= April-June, Q2 = July-September, Q3 = October-December and Q4 = January-March. 2. Adult offenders

28.7% of adult offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

Adult offenders accounted for 93% (around 121,000) of the October to December 2015 cohort and juvenile offenders accounted for 7% (around 9,000). Around 35,000 of all adult offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year, giving a proven reoffending rate of 28.7%.

Figure 2: Proportion of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by number of previous offences, October to December 2015 (Source: Table A5a)

As noted previously there is a change in data source in October 2015 and therefore users should remain cautious when comparing the latest quarter with results from previous quarters. However, the adult reoffending rate has remained broadly flat since 2005 fluctuating between 28% and 31%.

Around 132,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.82 reoffences each.

Generally, offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven reoffending than those with fewer previous offences. In the cohort, the proven reoffending rates for adults ranged from 7.3% for offenders with no previous offences to 50.0% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences made up 38% of all adult offenders in the cohort, but committed over 75% of all adult proven reoffences.

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3 A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. This means that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in Offender Management Statistics Quarterly and Criminal Justice Statistics. Please refer to the guide to proven reoffending statistics for further information. 3. Adjusted reoffending rates

When controlling for offender characteristics 28.4% of adult offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

For the first time adjusted proven reoffending rates for adults are published, using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS4/G). OGRS4 is based on a well-established, peer reviewed methodology for assessing and representing reoffending risk. The raw rates have been adjusted to the 2011 calendar year, in line with the Payment by Result statistics.

Figure 3: The average OGRS scores (2011 adjusted) and the adjusted proven reoffending rate for adults, April 2005 to December 2015 (Source: Table A1)

Between 2005 and 2011 the average OGRS score increased, but since 2011 it has remained broadly flat. This indicates that between 2005 and 2011 the cohort had an increasing propensity to reoffend, but since 2011 this has since levelled off. As a result the raw reoffending rate for adults are adjusted upwards between 2005 and 2011 reflecting the cohort having a greater propensity to reoffend.

Since 2011 the raw rates and the adjusted rates have tracked each other more closely. For example, the raw reoffending rate for adults for the October to December 2015 period was 28.7%, but the adjusted rate was 28.4%.

This suggests that while raw reoffending rates have remained broadly flat since 2005 the adjusted rates have shown a decreasing trend to reflect the greater propensity to reoffend of cohorts over this time.

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4 www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449357/research-analysis-offender-assessment-system.pdf 4. Juvenile offenders

41.8% of juvenile offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within one year

Around 9,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in the October to December 2015 cohort and around 4,000 of them committed a reoffence. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 41.8%.

Since 2005, the reoffending rate has increased by around 3-4 percentage points, but the size of the cohort has fallen by around 80% over the same period.

Figure 4: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by age, October to December 2015 (Source: Table A3)

Around 15,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.88 reoffences each, the highest rate since 2005. Juvenile offenders with 11 or more previous offences had a higher reoffending rate than those with no previous offences –77.1% compared to 24.1%.

Offenders aged 10 to 14 had the highest reoffending rate of any age group, with a reoffending rate of 42.3%. However, the number of offenders in this age group has fallen by around 85% since 2005. The reoffending rate for this age group overtook offenders aged 15 to 17 in 2013/14, who previously had a consistently higher reoffending rate but are now second highest. Figure 4 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with increasing age.

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5 Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old. 5. Index disposal(^6) - adults

Adults released from custody or starting court orders had a proven reoffending rate of 38.1%.

The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their index offence. For Proven Reoffending Statistics this is defined as custody, court order, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge, or caution.

Figure 5: Proportion of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven reoffence, by custodial sentence length, April 2005 to December 2015 (Source: Table C2a)

For adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence Order) the proven reoffending rate was 33.9%. The rate for this group has declined since 2005 by around 3-5 percentage points.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 49.2%. The effect of changing data source in October 2015 is concentrated among offenders discharged from custody, particularly among the less than 12 months custodial sentence length group. This might be connected to the introduction of statutory supervision for this group and further investigation is ongoing.

The rate for those released from short sentences has been consistently higher compared to those released from longer sentences. Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months reoffended at a rate of 65.5%, compared to 29.9% for those who served determinate sentences of 12 months or more. The trend for adults released from custodial sentences of 12 months or more has been decreasing since 2010.

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(^6) Proven reoffending rates by index disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further information see Annex D of the October 2016 publication (page 41) and the guide to proven reoffending statistics. 6. Index disposal – juveniles

Juvenile offenders given youth caution had a proven reoffending rate of 30.4%

The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 30.4%. This has remained broadly flat since 2013, but has increased by around 3-4 percentage points since 2005. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and replaced with youth cautions.

Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A Youth Caution may be given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to prosecute.

Figure 6: Proportion of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, April 2005 to December 2015 (Source: Table C1b)

Between October and December 2015, 231 juvenile offenders were released from custody and 150 of these (64.9%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This represents a fall of approximately 9-11 percentage points since 2005. 7. Index offences

In the October to December 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest reoffending rate at 50.8%

The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the index offence. In the October to December 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest proven reoffending rate of 50.8%. The second highest reoffending rate for adult offenders was for those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ with a rate of 36.2%.

Figure 7: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, October 2015 to December 2015 (Source: Table A4a/b)

With the exception of index offences recorded as ‘Other’, those with the lowest rate of reoffending in the adult cohort had an index offence of ‘Fraud’ – reoffending at a rate of 11.4%. Additionally, the ‘Fraud’ index offence category saw the largest decrease and those with an index offence of ‘Violence against the Person’ saw the biggest increase since 2005.

In the juvenile cohort those with an index offence of ‘Miscellaneous Crimes Against Society’ had the highest proven reoffending rate at 54.2%, closely followed by those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ at 50.0%. Those with the lowest rate had a ‘Sexual’ index offence and reoffended at a rate of 11.5%. 8. Annex A: Serious Further Offences

This section provides management information on the total number of Serious Further Offences (SFOs) as collected from the SFO Review Process. This is an update to the information that was published in the annual proven reoffending publication, which was published on 27 October 2016 and covered the period 2014/15.

Since 1 December 2008, an SFO review will be triggered when an offender is charged with an offence listed in Schedule 15a to the Criminal Justice Act 2003, alleged to have been committed within the probation supervision period or within 28 working days of the supervision period terminating.

Mandatory SFO reviews are triggered in the following circumstances:

- any eligible offender who has been charged with one of the most serious SFOs – murder, manslaughter, other offence causing death, rape, assault by penetration or a sexual offence against a child under 13 years (including attempted offences); and,

- any eligible offender who has been charged with another offence on the SFO list and is or has been assessed as high/very high risk of serious harm during their current supervision period or has not been subject to a risk assessment during that period.

A review may be carried out on a discretionary basis in the following circumstances:

- Any eligible offender who has been charged with an offence, irrespective of whether that offence is a qualifying offence, and the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) and the supervising probation provider have identified public-interest reasons for conducting a review.

Users should refer to the ‘2012 Compendium of Reoffending Statistics and Analysis’ for further definitions of the terms used in this notice, and for commentary to help interpret these.

Care must be taken when interpreting the figures in 2015/16, as a number of cases where offenders have been charged with a qualifying SFO have not concluded their course through the judicial system.

The table in this statistical notice provides the numbers of SFO notifications under the Probation SFO Review Process which resulted in a conviction for a serious further offence between 2010/11 and 2015/16. The table reflects the number of offenders who received an SFO notification up to 2015/16 and who were subsequently convicted of an SFO, up to 15 September 2017. Some offenders are eventually convicted of offences lesser than the offences with which they were charged and which triggered the SFO notification. Table 1: SFO notifications received under the HMPPS SFO Review Process which resulted in a conviction for England and Wales, 2010/11 to 2015/16.

| Type of Offence | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/2016 | |-----------------------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------| | Murder | 50 | 67 | 50 | 59 | 43 | 36 | | Attempted Murder | 12 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 20 | | Manslaughter | 18 | 15 | 16 | 23 | 12 | 15 | | Rape/assault by penetration | 103 | 76 | 90 | 80 | 89 | 88 | | Arson with Intent to endanger life | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | | Kidnapping/Abduction/False imprisonment | 2 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 7 | | Attempted Kidnapping/Abduction | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Other serious sexual or violent offences(^8) | 67 | 60 | 74 | 69 | 65 | 69 | | **All SFO convictions** | 260 | 253 | 269 | 275 | 253 | 244 | | Offences which did not meet the SFO criteria(^9) | 66 | 55 | 65 | 71 | 84 | 67 | | **All Convictions** | 326 | 308 | 334 | 346 | 337 | 311 |

(^7) Provisional figures subject to change as outstanding cases are completed.

(^8) Any other serious violent or sexual offence which carries a maximum custodial penalty of more than 10 years.

(^9) Offenders who had been charged with an offence which met the SFO criteria, but were convicted of a less serious offence. Further information

Accompanying files As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

- A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how proven reoffending is measured, and the data sources used.
- A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin.
- A number of data tools which provide proven reoffending data by demographics, offender history, individual prisons (available from January 2005 – September 2015) and probation area and geography.

The impact of community-based drug and alcohol treatment on re-offending This experimental statistical report contains initial findings from a project that has linked data from the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System (NDTMS) held by Public Health England (PHE) with data on offenders held by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).

The aim of this report is to improve the evidence base of the links between community-based treatment for substance misuse and changes in reoffending. This report contains initial findings from analysing the final matched dataset to support policy development and is intended to demonstrate the potential utility in linking treatment and offending data.

This is joint publication from Public Health England (PHE) and the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).

National Statistics status National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value.

All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.

It is the Ministry of Justice’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected for National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored. Contact Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

Tel: 020 3334 3536 Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical Services division of the Ministry of Justice:

Nick Mavron, Head of Prison, Probation, Reoffending and PbR Statistics Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ Email: Statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: January 2018 URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

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