Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, July 2014 to June 2015

Main points

This bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution in the period July 2014 to June 2015. This bulletin and associated tables and data tools present the proportion of offenders who reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, demographics, individual prisons, probation area, local authorities and youth offending teams.

The overall proven reoffending rate was 25.0%.

There is a 0.9 percentage point decrease in the overall proven reoffending rate compared to the previous 12 months and a 2.2 percentage point decrease since 2004. However, the rate has remained fairly flat, fluctuating between 25% and 27% since 2004.

Adult offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 24.0%.

The adult proven reoffending rate is down 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and 1.4 percentage points since 2004. The adult reoffending rate has remained fairly flat since 2004, fluctuating between 24% and 25%.

Juvenile offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 38.0%.

The juvenile reoffending rate has increased by 4.4 percentage points since 2004. However, the size of the cohort has fallen by around 77% over the same period. The rate has remained broadly the same as 12 months earlier.

Adults released from custody had a proven reoffending rate of 44.1%.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 44.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and 4.5 percentage points since 2004.

Latest figures are provided with comparisons to July 2013 to June 2014, and 2004 in order to highlight long-term trends. For full and detailed commentary please refer to the annual publication. For technical details and how proven reoffending is measured please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.

We are changing how our quarterly bulletins look, and would welcome any feedback to commentary.champions@justice.gsi.gov.uk

For other feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at Statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk How is proven reoffending measured?

A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period that leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the diagram below.

An offender enters the cohort if they are released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court or received a reprimand or warning in the period July 2014 to June 2015.

For further detail on how proven reoffending is measured, please see the guide to proven reoffending statistics.

1. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders

25.0% of offenders in the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

In July 2014 to June 2015 around 471,000 adult and juvenile offenders were cautioned(^1), received a non-custodial conviction at court or released from custody. Around 118,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This gives an overall proven reoffending rate of 25.0%. This rate has remained fairly stable since 2004, fluctuating between 25% and 27%.

Figure 1: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven re-offence, 2004 to June 2015 (Source: Table A1)

The latest overall proven reoffending rate represents a small decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 2.2 percentage points since 2004.

Around 384,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year follow-up period, with those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.25 reoffences each.

In the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort, 82% were male and 18% were female, a split that has changed little since 2004. Male offenders reoffended at a higher rate of 26.5% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 18.5%. Both rates have remained broadly stable since 2004.

Less than 1% of all proven reoffences committed over the one year follow-up period were indictable only(^2). This is compared to 1.16% in 2004 – its highest level over the period.

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(^1) Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles.

(^2) Indictable-only offences cover the most serious offences that must be tried at the Crown court; these ‘indictable-only’ offences include murder, manslaughter, rape and robbery. 2. Adult offenders

24.0% of adult offenders in the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

Adult offenders accounted for 93% (around 437,000) of the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort and juvenile offenders account for 7% (around 35,000). Around 105,000 of all adult offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year, giving a proven reoffending rate of 24.0%.

Figure 2: Proportion of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by number of previous offences, July 2014 to June 2015 (Source: Table A5a)

The latest adult reoffending rate represents a small decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 1.4 percentage points since 2004. This rate has been fairly flat since 2004 fluctuating between 24.0% and 25.4%.

Around 340,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.24 reoffences each.

Generally, offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven reoffending than those with fewer previous offences. In the cohort, the proven reoffending rates for adults ranged from 7.4% for offenders with no previous offences to 44.3% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences represented just under a third of all adult offenders in the cohort, but committed over two thirds of all adult proven reoffences.

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3 A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. This means that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in Offender Management Statistics Quarterly and Criminal Justice Statistics. Please refer to the Guide for proven reoffending statistics for further information. 3. Juvenile offenders

38.0% of juvenile offenders in the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort reoffended within one year

Around 35,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort and around 13,000 of them committed a reoffence. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 38.0%, which is broadly the same as the previous 12 months and an increase of 4.4 percentage points since 2004. However, the cohort has fallen by around 77% since 2004.

Figure 3: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by age, 2004 and July 2014 to June 2015 (Source: Table A3)

Around 44,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.35 reoffences each. Juvenile offenders with 11 or more previous offences have a higher reoffending rate than those with no previous offences –73.4% compared to 25.0%.

The highest reoffending rate by age group is 39.7%, for offenders aged 10 to 14. However, the number of offenders in this age group has fallen by around 85% since 2004. The reoffending rate for this age group overtook offenders aged 15 to 17 in 2013/14, who previously had a consistently higher reoffending rate but are now second highest. Figure 3 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with increasing age.

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4 Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old. 4. Index disposal - adults

Adults released from custody had a proven reoffending rate of 44.1%

The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their index offence. For the Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, this is defined as custody, court order, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge, or caution.

Figure 4: Proportion of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven reoffence, by custodial sentence length, 2004 to June 2015 (Source: Table C2a)

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence Order) was 31.4%, a fall of 5.9 percentage points since 2004, and a fall of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody between July 2014 and June 2015 was 44.1%. This represents a fall of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 4.5 percentage points since 2004. Since 2004, the overall rate for those released from custody has remained relatively stable at around 44% to 50%.

The rate for those released from short sentences has been consistently higher compared to those released from longer sentences. Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months reoffended at a rate of 59.3%, compared to 31.5% for those who served determinate sentences of 12 months or more. The trends for those released from short and long sentences have both remained broadly flat since 2005 and are consistent with the overall trend.

Proven reoffending rates by index disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further information see the annual October publication and the guide to proven reoffending statistics. 5. Index disposal – juveniles

Juvenile offenders given a reprimand, warning of youth caution

The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 31.0%, which is broadly the same as the previous year and an increase of 5.1 percentage points since 2004. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and replaced with youth cautions.

Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A Youth Caution may be given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to prosecute.

Figure 5: Proportion of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, 2004 to June 2015 (Source: Table C1b)

Juvenile offenders released from custody

Between July 2014 and June 2015 around 900 juvenile offenders were released from custody and around 600 of these (69.4%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This represents a fall of 6.0 percentage points since 2004, but an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months. 6. Index Offences

In the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest reoffending rate at 42.0%.

The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the index offence. In the July 2014 to June 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest proven reoffending rate of 42.0%. The second highest reoffending rate for adult offenders was for those with an index offence of ‘Robbery’ with a rate of 31.7%.

Figure 6: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, July 2014 to June 2015 (Source: Table A4a/b)

Those with the lowest rate had an index offence of ‘Fraud’ and reoffended at a rate of 9.2%. Additionally, with a fall of 9.6 percentage points, the ‘Fraud’ index offence category saw the largest decrease between 2004 and June 2015. In contrast, the largest increase of 5.8 percentage points over the same period occurred for those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ with a reoffending rate of 28.8%.

In the juvenile cohort those with an index offence of ‘Robbery’ had the highest proven reoffending rate at 43.9%, closely followed by those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ at 43.4%. Those with the lowest rate had a ‘Sexual’ index offence and reoffended at a rate of 15.5%. The ‘Summary motoring’ index offence category, had the largest decrease between 2004 and July 2014 to June 2015 with a fall of 7.7 percentage points to a reoffending rate of 33.4%. The largest increase of 11.1 percentage points over the same period occurred for those with an index offence of ‘Theft’. Further information

Accompanying files As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

- A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how proven reoffending is measured, and the data sources used.
- A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin.
- A number of data tools which provide proven reoffending data by demographics, offender history, individual prison and probation area and geography.

Impact of further education on prisoner outcomes - planned for publication: 27 July 2017 We plan to publish results from linking Individual Learner Records (ILR) to offender information from the Police National Computer (PNC) as part of the next quarterly National Statistics on reoffending on 27 July 2017.

MoJ and the former BIS (now part of DfE) reached an agreement which enabled further education data from the ILR to be linked to offender information from the PNC, with the express intention to understand the impact of further education on reoffending. This report will focus on offenders with an immediate custodial sentence who have taken at least one further education learning activity during their prison sentence and were released in 2010. Their proven one-year reoffending outcomes will be compared to peers who had not taken further education during prison. This report also utilises linked data from DWP and HMRC to examine the relationships between employment and benefit status before and after prison, further education in prison and reoffending.

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All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.

It is the Ministry of Justice’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected for National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored. Contact Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

Tel: 020 3334 3536 Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical Services division of the Ministry of Justice:

Nick Mavron, Head of Prison, Probation, Reoffending and PbR Statistics Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ Email: Statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: July 2017 URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

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