Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, April 2014 to March 2015

Main points

This bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution in the period April 2014 to March 2015. This bulletin and associated tables and data tools present the proportion of offenders who reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, demographics, individual prisons, probation area, local authorities and youth offending teams.

The overall proven reoffending rate was 25.3%.

There is a 0.9 percentage point decrease in the overall proven reoffending rate compared to the previous 12 months and a 2.0 percentage point decrease since 2004. However, the rate has remained fairly flat, fluctuating between 25% and 27% since 2004.

Adult offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 24.3%.

The adult proven reoffending rate is down 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and 1.2 percentage points since 2004. The adult reoffending rate has remained fairly flat since 2004, fluctuating around 25%.

Juvenile offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 37.9%.

The juvenile reoffending rate has increased by 4.3 percentage points since 2004. However, the size of the cohort has fallen by around 76% over the same period. The rate has remained broadly the same as 12 months earlier.

Adults released from custody had a proven reoffending rate of 44.7%.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 44.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and 3.9 percentage points since 2004.

Latest figures are provided with comparisons to April 2013 to March 2014, and 2004 in order to highlight long-term trends. For full and detailed commentary please refer to the annual publication, and for technical details and how proven reoffending is measured to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.

We are changing how our quarterly bulletins look, and would welcome any feedback to commentary.champions@justice.gsi.gov.uk

For other feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at Statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk How is proven reoffending measured?

A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period that leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the diagram below.

An offender enters the cohort if they are released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court or received a reprimand or warning in the period April 2014 to March 2015.

For further detail on how proven reoffending is measured, please see the guide to proven reoffending statistics.

1. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders

25.3% of offenders in the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

In April 2014 to March 2015 around 477,000 adult and juvenile offenders were cautioned(^1), received a non-custodial conviction at court or released from custody. Around 121,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This gives an overall proven reoffending rate of 25.3%. This rate has remained fairly stable since 2004, fluctuating between 25% and 27%.

Figure 1: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven re-offence, 2004 to March 2015 (Source: Table A1)

The latest overall proven reoffending rate represents a small decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 2.0 percentage points since 2004. Around 390,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year follow-up period, with those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.23 reoffences each.

In the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort, 82% were male and 18% were female, a split that has changed little since 2004. Male offenders reoffended at a higher rate of 26.8% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 18.7%. Both rates have remained broadly stable since 2004.

Less than 1% of all proven reoffences committed over the one year follow-up period were indictable only(^2). This is compared to 1.16% in 2004 – its highest level over the 10 years.

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(^1) Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles.

(^2) Indictable-only offences cover the most serious offences that must be tried at the Crown court; these ‘indictable-only’ offences include murder, manslaughter, rape and robbery. 2. Adult offenders

24.3% of adult offenders in the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort reoffended within a year

Adult offenders accounted for 92% (around 440,000) of the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort and juvenile offenders account for 8% (around 36,000). Around 107,000 of all adult offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year, giving a proven reoffending rate of 24.3%.

Figure 2: Proportion of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by number of previous offences, April 2014 to March 2015 (Source: A5a)

The latest adult reoffending rate represents a small decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 1.2 percentage points since 2004. This rate has been fairly flat since 2004 fluctuating between 24.3% and 25.4%.

Around 345,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.22 reoffences each.

Generally, offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven reoffending than those with fewer previous offences. In the cohort, the proven reoffending rates for adults ranged from 7.5% for offenders with no previous offences to 44.7% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous offences represented just under a third of all adult offenders in the cohort, but committed over two thirds of all adult proven reoffences.

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3 A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. This means that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in Offender Management Statistics Quarterly and Criminal Justice Statistics. Please refer to the Guide for proven reoffending statistics for further information. 3. Juvenile offenders

37.9% of juvenile offenders in the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort reoffended within one year

Around 36,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort and around 14,000 of them committed a reoffence. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 37.9%, which is broadly the same as the previous 12 months and an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2004. However, the cohort has fallen by around 76% since 2004, a trend also seen in Criminal Justice Statistics.

Figure 3: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by age, 2004 and April 2014-March 2015 (Source: Table A3)

Around 45,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.30 reoffences each. Juvenile offenders with 11 or more previous offences have a higher reoffending rate than those with no previous offences –74.5% compared to 24.6%.

The highest reoffending rate by age group is 39.0%, for offenders aged 10 to 14. However, the number of offenders in this age group has fallen by around 84% since 2004. The reoffending rate for this age group overtook offenders aged 15 to 17 in 2013/14, who previously had a consistently higher reoffending rate but are now second highest. Figure 3 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with increasing age.

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4 Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old.

5 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-system-statistics-quarterly-june-2016 4. Index disposal - adults

Adults released from custody had a proven reoffending rate of 44.7%

The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their index offence. For the Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, this is defined as custody, court order, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge, or caution.

Figure 4: Proportion of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven reoffence, by custodial sentence length, 2004 to March 2015 (Source: Table C2a)

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence Order) was 32.0%, a fall of 5.4 percentage points since 2004, and a fall of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody between April 2014 and March 2015 was 44.7%. This represents a fall of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 3.9 percentage points since 2004. Since 2004, the overall rate for those released from custody has remained relatively stable at around 45% to 49%. The rate for those released from short sentences has been consistently higher compared to those released from longer sentences. Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months reoffended at a rate of 59.7%, compared to 32.2% for those who served determinate sentences of 12 months or more. The trends for those released from short and long sentences have both remained broadly flat since 2005 and are consistent with the overall trend.

Proven reoffending rates by index disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further information see the annual October publication and the guide to proven reoffending statistics. 5. Index disposal – juveniles

Juvenile offenders given a reprimand, warning or youth caution

The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 30.7%, which is broadly the same as the previous year and an increase of 4.8 percentage points since 2004. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and replaced with youth cautions.

Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A Youth Caution may be given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to prosecute.

Figure 5: Proportion of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, 2004 to March 2015 (Source: Table C1b)

Juvenile offenders released from custody

Between April 2014 and March 2015 around 1,000 juvenile offenders were released from custody and around 700 of these (68.7%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This represents a fall of 6.8 percentage points since 2004, but an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months. 6. Index Offences

In the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest reoffending rate at 42.2%.

The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the index offence. In the April 2014 to March 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest proven reoffending rate of 42.2%. The second highest reoffending rate for adult offenders was for those with an index offence of ‘Robbery’ with a rate of 32.7%.

Figure 6: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, April 2014 to March 2015 (Source: Table A4a/b)

Those with the lowest rate had an index offence of ‘Fraud’ and reoffended at a rate of 9.6%. Additionally, with a fall of 9.3 percentage points, the ‘Fraud’ index offence category saw the largest decrease between 2004 and March 2015. In contrast, the largest increase of 6.0 percentage points over the same period occurred for those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ with a reoffending rate of 29.0%.

In the juvenile cohort those with an index offence of ‘Robbery’ had the highest proven reoffending rate at 44.2%, closely followed by those with an index offence of ‘Theft’ at 43.2%. Those with the lowest rate had a ‘Sexual’ index offence and reoffended at a rate of 14.4%. The ‘Summary motoring’ index offence category, had the largest decrease between 2004 and April 2014 to March 2015 with a fall of 8.9 percentage points to a reoffending rate of 32.2%. The largest increase of 11.6 percentage points over the same period occurred for those with an index offence of ‘Theft’. Further information

Accompanying files As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

- A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how proven reoffending is measured, and the data sources used.
- A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin.
- A number of data tools which provide proven reoffending data by demographics, offender history, individual prison and probation area and geography.

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Contact Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

Tel: 020 3334 3536 Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical Services division of the Ministry of Justice:

Nick Mavron, Head of Prison, Probation, Reoffending and PbR Statistics Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ Email: Statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: April 2017

URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

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