Statistical Notice and Consultation – Part 3 Changes to Offender Management Statistics Quarterly and Annual editions

29 January 2015 Introduction

At the start of 2014 a programme of work began to review each chapter of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) and Annual publication to ensure it continues to meet users’ needs. The April 2014 and July 2014 OMSQ publications have been accompanied by a series of statistical notice and consultation documents.

Previous consultations have reviewed the chapters of OMSQ relating to prison population, receptions and releases. In this consultation we have focussed on proposing changes to the tables in the licence recalls chapter; in particular, looking at what will be beneficial to users given the changes made by the Transforming Rehabilitation Programme.

As part of the Government’s Transforming Rehabilitation Programme:

- On 1 June 2014 Probation Trusts were replaced by the National Probation Service (NPS), which manages high-risk offenders across seven divisions, and 21 new Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs), who manage medium and low-risk offenders. This means either the NPS or CRCs can make recommendations to the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) for offenders to be recalled while on licence.

- Offenders who have been given an immediate custodial sentence of more than one day to less than 12 months will continue to be released from custody at the half way point of their sentence (or earlier with Home Detention Curfew), but will now serve the remaining half of their sentence with licence conditions.

- Offenders serving a custodial sentence of more than one day to less than two years will now also be supervised following the end of their licence period. The post-sentence supervision period will be the difference between twelve months, and the amount of time the offender spends on licence in the community, so that an offender spends twelve months in total under licence and post-sentence supervision. When an offender is serving the post-sentence supervision period, recall must be authorised through the courts.

Taking into consideration these changes occurring through the Transforming Rehabilitation Programme and part of the wider review of each chapter of OMSQ to ensure it continues to meet users’ needs, a complete review of the licence recalls tables has been undertaken. The review has looked at reorganising the existing licence recalls tables as well as providing tables that show further breakdowns of what is already published. The tables aim to provide data on the impact of the Transforming Rehabilitation Programme on the number of offenders recalled while on licence or under post-sentence supervision in a way that is clear and accessible to users.

This consultation is therefore accompanied by a proposed set of licence recalls tables. These tables demonstrate how we propose to present these statistics in the future. This gives users with an opportunity to comment on the proposed tables and see how these compare to the current format. In this edition of OMSQ, we recommend that users continue to refer to the current published licence tables, the proposed tables are provisional and their purpose is for consultation only.

The proposed tables have been designed to be more consistent with the other statistics published in OMSQ. This supports the harmonisation of tables and therefore provides a more comprehensive set of statistics for users. Whilst the vast majority of information has been retained, we have proposed to discontinue some information which does not contribute to providing a more informative set of statistics for our users.

Currently, offenders serving a sentence of twelve months and over are, in most cases, released from prison automatically at the half way point of their sentence, under licensed supervision to the NPS or CRCs. Such offenders are subject to a set of standard licence conditions; requiring them to report regularly to the NPS or CRCs, live at an approved address, and to be of good behaviour.

A key element of public protection is that offenders released on licence are effectively supervised in the community and swiftly recalled to custody if they commit further offences or their behaviour gives cause for concern. Offenders are advised on release that that they are liable to be recalled to custody immediately by Public Protection Casework Section in the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) if the NPS or CRCs supervising body reports the offender as having breached the conditions of their licence. Offenders serving sentences of 12 months or over can receive a Fixed Term Recall (recalled for 28 days) or a standard recall (recalled until the end of their sentence).

As set out earlier, statutory supervision and rehabilitation will be extended to all offenders sentenced to less than 12 months in custody. Under the new legislation (the Offender Rehabilitation Act) an offender released from a less than 12 month sentence who breaches their licence conditions can receive a Fixed Term Recall (recalled for 14 days) or a standard recall (recalled until the end of their sentence).

To show the effects of this new legislation the proposed tables include a sentence length split for:

- Less than 12 months;
- 12 months or more (excluding indeterminate sentences); and
- Indeterminate sentences.

The less than 12 months category in the tables will be populated once the Offender Rehabilitation Act has been enacted. As the Transforming Rehabilitation Programme progresses we will continue to review the tables in response to user need.

After reviewing the proposals in this document, users are encouraged to contact Ann-Marie Jordan at statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk with their feedback on this statistical series and these proposed changes.

Comments are requested by 19 March 2015.

After reviewing user feedback from this consultation a new set of licence recalls tables will be published in the next edition of OMSQ on 30 April 2015, and the current set of licence recalls tables will be discontinued. The changes made through user consultation to the proposed tables will be documented in a similar notice to this.

Additionally, we welcome user views on the existing commentary, tables, and content in OMSQ. Should any immediate changes to OMSQ be made that necessitate pre-announcement in advance of the publication, the document will be released ahead of the publication. Proposed changes for future editions of OMSQ

Licence recalls data

The information held centrally by the Public Protection Casework Section in NOMS records:

- The number of offenders recalled in the latest quarter (and whether or not they have returned to custody).
- The total number of offenders who were recalled since January 1984 and have not yet been returned to custody.

Figure 1 provides a summary of the key statistics that can be published from the centrally held licence recalls data. Figure 1 - Total number of offenders recalled, returned and not returned to custody

Recall period

Jan-Mar 2014

30-Jun-2014

Apr-Jun 2014

30-Sep-2014

(A) Total recalled from April 1999 to end of recall period 173,013

(B) Recalled in period 4,216

(C) Total recalled from April 1999 to end of recall period 177,229

(E) Returned 4,111

(G) Returned to custody 4,181

(H) Total returned to custody since April 1999 176,183

(F) Returned 70

(K) Not returned 105

(J) Not returned to custody 941

(L) Total not returned to custody since April 1999 1,046

(I) Total not returned to custody since April 1999 1,011

(M) Recalled from January 1984 to March 1999 10,000

(N) Not returned 19

(P) Not returned 18

(O) Total not returned to custody since January 1984 1,030

(Q) Total not returned to custody since January 1984 1,064 Number of offenders recalled to custody (A) From April 1999 to March 2014, 173,013 of those released on licence were recalled to custody for breaching the conditions of their licence. This includes offenders recalled from licence for determinate sentences, indeterminate sentences for public protection (IPPs), life sentences and those recalled from Home Detention Curfew. This number does not include those recalled during the period January 1984 to March 1999 as this figure is approximate. (B) Between April to June 2014 a further 4,216 offenders were recalled to custody. (C) Therefore, the total number of offenders recalled to custody from April 1999 to June 2014 was 177,229.

Number of offenders returned to custody (D) By 30 June 2014, 172,002 of those recalled from April 1999 to March 2014 were returned to custody. The figures for those returned to custody include people who have died or been deported by the UK Borders Agency as prior to 2007 this information was not collected separately. (E) By 30 September 2014, 4,111 of those recalled from April to June 2014 were returned to custody. (F) Between July to September 2014, 70 offenders whose recall date was prior to April 2014 were returned to custody. This is the number returned in the latest period but recalled prior to the start of the recall period. (G) Adding (E) and (F) together brings the total number of offenders returned to custody in the period to 4,181. (H) Therefore, looking at (D) and (G) we can see that 176,183 of those recalled from April 1999 to June 2014 were returned to custody by 30 September 2014.

Number of offenders not returned to custody (I) As at 30 June 2014, 1,011 of those recalled from April 1999 to March 2014 were not returned to custody. (J) From (F) we can see that 70 offenders of the 1,011 from (I) were returned to custody by 30 September 2014. This leaves 941 offenders who were recalled from April 1999 to March 2014 and were not returned to custody by 30 September 2014. (K) As at 30 September 2014, 105 of those recalled from April to June 2014 were not returned to custody. (L) Therefore, looking at (J) and (K) we can see that 1,046 of those recalled from April 1999 to June 2014 had not returned to custody by 30 September 2014.

Number of offenders recalled to custody (M) Between January 1984 to March 1999 an estimated 10,000 offenders were recalled to custody.

Number of offenders not returned to custody (N) As at 30 June 2014, 19 of those recalled from January 1984 to March 1999 were not returned to custody. This includes those offenders believed to be dead or living outside of the UK but who have not been confirmed as dead or deported. (O) Adding (I) and (N) together brings the total number of offenders not returned to custody of those recalled from January 1984 to March 1999 to 1,030 as at 30 June 2014. (P) As at 30 September 2014, 18 of those recalled from January 1984 to March 1999 were not returned to custody. (Q) Therefore, looking at (P) and (L) we can see that as at 30 September 2014, a total of 1,064 of those recalled from January 1984 to March 1999 were not returned to custody. Proposed licence recalls tables

This section explains how each of the proposed licence recalls tables relate to the tables currently published and the additional breakdowns of licence recalls data that we propose to publish. Whilst the vast majority of information has been retained, we will explain why we propose to discontinue some information.

Proposed Table 5.1 This table provides the data in figure 1 for the last five quarters. It provides statistics on the total number of offenders recalled and returned to custody since April 1999 (C and H in figure 1) from current tables 5.1 and 5.2 and the number of offenders not returned to custody since January 1984 (Q in figure 1) from current table 5.3 for the last five quarters.

It also shows the activity that occurs within a quarter from current table 5.4; the number of offenders recalled in the latest quarter (B in figure 1) and how many of those have returned to custody (E in figure 1) and not returned to custody in the latest period (K in figure 1).

Current table 5.1 shows the number of offenders recalled annually since April 1999 and how many of these offenders have returned to custody or not returned to custody by the end of the latest period. This means that each quarter the number returned and not returned are revised for the annual data from April 1999. We propose to discontinue the revisions of those returned and not returned to custody, so that a quarterly time series of licence recalls can be provided in proposed table 5.1.

For proposed table 5.1 the annual time series of licence recalls since April 1999 from current table 5.1 has been removed. It is proposed that annual tables could include this longer time series of annual licence recalls. Similarly, we propose to discontinue the longer time series on the number of offenders not returned to custody from current table 5.3. It is proposed that annual tables could include a time series from 30 June 2011 on the number of offenders not returned to custody.

Proposed Table 5.2 This table is a quarterly time series of the number of offenders recalled in a quarter (B in figure 1) and corresponds to the recall section of current table 5.4; IPP and life sentence categories have been merged to provide indeterminate sentences.

As part of the Government’s Transforming Rehabilitation programme, Probation Trusts were replaced by CRCs and the NPS on 1 June 2014. This table allows users to additionally see the supervising body (Probation Trust, NPS or CRC) and sentence length of the offender at time of recall.

Current table 5.10 on the number of offenders recalled in the latest quarter from the January to March publication has now been discontinued as it is no longer possible to provide data by Probation Trust. Statistics on the total number of offenders recalled in the latest quarter by supervising body (NPS or CRC) will be provided in proposed table 5.2. Additionally, the primary purpose of the OMSQ is to provide data on offenders rather than agencies, we therefore propose to discontinue performance against timescales by agency from this table.

Proposed Table 5.3a and 5.3b Proposed table 5.3a is a quarterly time series of the number of offenders returned to custody who were recalled in the last quarter (E in figure 1) and corresponds to the returned to custody section of current table 5.4; IPP and life sentence categories have been merged to provide indeterminate sentences.

Proposed table 5.3b shows the percentage of those returned within the latest period after recall in the last quarter. Both of these tables show the supervising body (Probation Trusts, NPS or CRCs) and sentence length of the offender at time of recall.

**Proposed Table 5.4a and 5.4b** Proposed table 5.4a is a quarterly time series of the number of offenders not returned to custody who were recalled in the last quarter (K in figure 1) and corresponds to the not returned to custody section of current table 5.4; IPP and life sentence categories have been merged to provide indeterminate sentences.

Proposed table 5.4b shows the percentage of those returned within the latest period after recall in the last quarter. Both of these tables show the supervising body (Probation Trusts, NPS or CRCs) and sentence length of the offender at time of recall.

**Proposed Table 5.5** This table provides reorganised statistics from current table 5.7 and shows the length of time between recall and return to custody for offenders recalled in a quarter (B in figure 1). The proposed table additionally provides the offenders’ sentence type and whether the processing of their recall was carried out under standard or emergency procedures.

The length of time has now been categorised by how many offenders were returned within the target time, how many were returned after the target time and how many have not been returned by the end of the latest period.

Offenders are returned in target time if the end-to-end process takes less than 74 hours for emergency process recalls and less than 144 hours (6 days) for standard process recalls. There is an emergency process for all indeterminate recalls. This is the timescale used to monitor end-to-end performance.

The primary purpose of the OMSQ is to provide data on offenders rather than agencies, we therefore propose to discontinue table 5.9 on performance against timescales by agency.

**Proposed Table 5.6** Current table 5.6 from the January to March publication has now been discontinued as it is no longer possible to provide data by Probation Trust. Our intention is to provide statistics on the total number of offenders not returned to custody following recall since January 1984 (Q in figure 1) by supervising body (NPS or CRC) in proposed table 5.6. This table will additionally show the sentence length of the offender at time of recall.

**Proposed Table 5.7** This table shows the total number of offenders not returned to custody following recall since January 1984 (Q in figure 1) by length of time since recall. It is the same as current table 5.5, but with a further breakdown of supervising body (Probation Trust, NPS or CRC).

**Proposed Table 5.8** This is the same as table 5.5 in the current publication. It shows the total number of offenders not returned to custody following recall since January 1984 by the index offence for which they were they were originally sentenced, due to continued user demand for this table it will be included without change. Further considerations

In developing this set of proposed tables, there are three further areas where user views are particularly welcome:

- Until now licence recalls have been published as part of the OMSQ publication and there has not been a set of annual tables for licence recalls. We could produce annual tables that would mirror the quarterly tables but present licence recalls data as an annual time series.

- To improve consistency with other chapters of OMSQ, we could expand the proposed quarterly licence recalls to include variables on protected characteristics such as sex and age group.

- Proposed table 5.7 includes those who have not returned to custody and their length of time since recall was more than 5 years. We could extend this table to include those who have not returned to custody and their length of time since recall was 5 years to 10 years and more than 10 years.

Subject to the feedback received from our users we will include these changes when the proposed licence recalls are introduced with the publication on 30 April 2015. Changes made in this edition of OMSQ

Probation tables

As part of the Government’s Transforming Rehabilitation programme, Probation Trusts were replaced by Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs) and the National Probation Service (NPS) on 1 June 2014. This edition of OMSQ reports on the period July to September 2014, the first full period of these new arrangements.

It is no longer possible to present data broken down by Probation Trust. Therefore:

- Table 4.5 shows, as it did for the previous quarter, starts of court orders at NPS Divisional level, not region and trust as formerly.

- Table 4.10 now shows caseload by NPS Division and CRC.

Probation CSVs have been reinstated in this edition of OMSQ. Probation starts and terminations CSVs are now published at NPS Divisional level and probation caseload statistics CSVs are published by NPS Division and CRC. Potential changes in other future editions of OMSQ

In the next edition of Offender Management Statistics Quarterly and Annual published on 30 April 2015, changes to annual prison receptions and releases that were consulted on in July 2014 will be implemented.

As part of the OMSQ publication a set of dataset CSVs have been published to provide Offender Management Statistics at a more granular level of geography (Prisons and NPS Divisions / CRCs) than the tables which are published at England and Wales level. In the next edition of OMSQ the datasets CSV files issued as part of the publication will be reviewed. We encourage users to contact Ann-Marie Jordan with their views on the existing dataset CSV files at statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk.

During 2015, as a result of improvements to IT, the administrative data source used to produce statistics on the prison population is expected to change. In the longer term, this should mean that more detailed information about the prison population should be available for inclusion in this statistical series. In the short term, there are likely to be differences between the new and current data source that will need to be quantified and explained. We are currently undertaking work to check the data quality of the new data source. Our intention is to publish data from the new data source alongside the current data source as at 30 June 2015 in the July edition of OMSQ.

Subject to this change being made successfully, we will be looking to change the administrative data sources for other prison data in order to improve the coverage and content of these statistical series. As with the prison population, there are likely to be differences between new and old data sources that will need to be quantified and explained.

As a result of data source changes, there may be some changes to the classifications used in these statistics. Where possible, we will invite users’ views as to what these new classifications should be. As a minimum, we will announce any changes to classifications used in these statistics as far in advance of their use as possible, and update associated information on data quality and sources. Annex A - Licence Recalls tables

Information on where data from the current licence recall tables can be found in the proposed tables is summarised in the table below.

The ‘Current tables’ column gives the number and description of the tables that is currently published in this edition of OMSQ. The ‘Proposed tables’ column describes where data in the current tables can be found in the proposed licence recalls tables that have been published alongside this consultation.

| Current Tables | Proposed tables | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Table 5.1:** Summary of licence recalls 1 January 1984 to 30 September 2014 and returns to custody by 31 December 2014 | **Proposed table 5.1.** Summary retained. Annual breakdown of recalls since April 1999 removed for quarterly tables. | | **Table 5.2:** Summary of licence recalls to 30 September 2014 and returns to custody by 31 December 2014 | **Proposed table 5.1** Summary retained. | | **Table 5.3:** Summary of number of offenders not returned to custody, as at 31 December 2011 to 31 December 2014 | **Proposed table 5.1** Five quarters only. The long time series is discontinued for quarterly tables. | | **Table 5.4:** Number of offenders recalled from determinate and indeterminate sentences, by custody status | **Proposed table 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4** IPP and life sentences categories have been merged to give indeterminate sentences. | | **Table 5.5:** Number of offenders recalled and not returned to custody by quarter, by offence | **Proposed table 5.8** No changes. | | **Table 5.6:** Number of offenders recalled by 30 September 2014 and not returned to custody by 31 December 2014, by Probation Trust | **Discontinued** Probation Trust breakdown now not possible. **Proposed table 5.6** will show the number of offenders not recalled. | | **Table 5.7:** Length of time between recall and return to custody for recalled offenders | **Proposed table 5.4** Timescales reported revised. | | **Table 5.8:** Length of time since recall for those not returned to custody | **Proposed table 5.7** | | **Table 5.9:** Performance against timescales for licence recalls returned to custody by agency | **Discontinued** Condensed information on timescales can be found in **proposed table 5.4.** | | **Table 5.10:** Performance against timescales for licence recalls returned to custody by 31 December 2014 by agency, by Probation Trust | Probation Trust breakdown now not possible. | Contacts

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:

Tel: 020 3334 3536 Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries, including feedback, about these statistics and associated changes should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical Services division of the Ministry of Justice:

Ann-Marie Jordan Statistician Ministry of Justice 7th Floor 102 Petty France London SW1H 9AJ Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed to: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

General information about the official statistics system of the UK is available from: http://www.statistics.gov.uk

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