FXUS04 KWBC 092041
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
441 PM EDT FRI APR 09 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 11/0000 UTC THRU APR 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
SRN PLAINS/DEEP SOUTH...
THE MAIN ATTRACTION THIS PD IS A FRONTAL BNDRY MOVG SEWD THRU THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. INITIALLY...PCPN SHOULD REMAIN NR
THE H8 BNDRY AND IN THE COMMA HEAD ACRS ERN OK AND AR BEFORE
CONVECTION GETS GOING CLOSER TO THE SFC BNDRY AND INVERTED TROF
LATER TDA AS IT MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD PROPOGATE E TO ESEWD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH BEFORE FADING AROUND 15Z SAT. DURING SAT PM...THE NRN FRINGE
OF THE OLD PCPN AREA LIMPS EWD TWDS NRN GA. A SECOND WAVE FORMS
DOWN IN TX IN A REGION OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AT THE TAIL OF AN
H2 JET...AN AREA ALSO CLOSE TO THE LRQ OF A SECOND STRONGER JET
STREAK. KEPT CLOSE TO OUR PREV MANUAL PROGS AND THE ETA AS THEY
STILL SEEM TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE MASS FIELDS OF THE ETA AND GFS.

CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...
COMMA HEAD PCPN IN COMBINATION W/UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
0.50 TO 0.75 INCH PCPN FROM SERN CO WHICH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EWD
ALG THE OK/KS BORDER INTO SWRN MO.

SRN FL...
A WEAK CDFNT/TROF IS SETTLING INTO SRN FL AT THIS TIME. INCREASING
TEMP CONTRAST ALG THE BNDRY AS WELL AS HIGH PWS AND THE RRQ OF
THE H2 JET ALOFT SHOULD SET OFF CONVECTION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
MAINLY ACRS BROWARD COUNTY S OF LK OKEECHOBEE. EXTREMELY
LOCALIZED AMTS OF 2 INCHES WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE SOMEWHERE IN
VCNTY OF  FORT LAUDERDALE...MARGATE...OR CORAL SPRINGS.


DAY 2...

IN THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...  THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN
THE ETA WITH THE SHORT WAVE DIGGING SWD THRU THE REGION.  THE
UKMET SUPPORTS THE GFS... SO HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE GFS PCPN
FORECAST... WHICH INCLUDES MDT TO LCLY HVY AMOUNTS IN NM.

FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...
SOUTHEASTERN... AND GULF STATES...    A BAND OF MDT TO HVY RAINS
IS
EXPECTED.  THE GFS AND ETA HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES OF NOTE.  THE
GFS TROF DEVELOPING IN THE N CENTRAL STATES IS DEEPER IN THE GFS
THAN IN THE ETA.  THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGEST A
COMPROMISE IN THIS REGARD.  HAVE GONE ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE
WAY TOWARDS THE GFS... WHICH INFLUENCES THE POSITION OF THE RAIN
BAND IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.... TENDING TO PULL IT MORE TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND WEST.  HAVE COMPROMISED IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH QPF.  MEANWHILE... AS FOR THE MAX AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND... 
THE ETA AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO NUMBER AND SPEED OF
ENEWD MOVING VORT MAXES.  THE GFS OVERPRODUCES THESE
FEEDBACK IMPULSES... AND TENDS TO MOVE THEM TOO QUICKLY. 
THEREFORE... HAVE SLOWED ADVANCE OF HEAVIEST RAINS A BIT IN THE
GULF STATES... AND HAVE IGNORED AMOUNTS REACHING EWD ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF AL AND GA.

IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... AS NOTED ABOVE... GOING ABOUT TWO THIRDS
OF THE WAY TOWARDS MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SLOWER UPPER
CIRCULATION CENTER FORECAST BY THE GFS.  THIS RESULTS IN MORE
LIGHT PCPN THAN FORECAST BY THE ETA IN THIS AREA.

ROTH/LINDNER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 472711 472705 470700 464698 458698 454700 448704 442710 
      440715 439721 439730 436736 432742 431748 432753 433758 
      437764 441759 447753 450748 452739 453734 458728 464723 
      468719 472711 
 0.01 511918 511906 510899 508893 503887 498885 492884 488885 
      484889 480891 476890 477884 477875 475865 473858 469851 
      465850 462853 460856 459861 461881 460883 456883 451881 
      444879 438879 432883 428888 426896 428905 430911 435917 
      444925 449927 453929 457929 466927 472921 476923 478926 
      482931 489934 493941 496947 501953 505953 509947 510940 
      511930 511918 
 0.01 448101 448096 447093 442088 438084 433076 426060 424056 
      422052 420044 417036 415025 413004 411984 410972 408961 
      406954 404946 402934 401923 400913 399905 396895 392888 
      390876 388866 383848 380836 381827 384815 388801 388796 
      383796 384792 389786 388782 386782 375795 370800 366803 
      362803 354795 342791 335789 328790 328793 330797 333801 
      342814 347818 350819 352823 344836 341843 335846 330846 
      326850 323856 322863 318879 313905 309920 305933 298945 
      292958 287970 284981 281984 277984 275985 275989 279995 
      280999 279009 281016 286023 290027 297027 301027 307023 
      311017 316003 319999 324992 332988 338988 342990 344992 
      345001 345011 345020 346029 349038 348041 341043 334042 
      325041 318038 314037 310037 305041 305046 306050 308056 
      312063 316068 322072 324075 326079 325089 322089 320087 
      315084 313089 311097 312114 315121 317121 320118 328112 
      332112 336120 339126 344130 347132 350131 358127 360120 
      360117 357114 352101 354096 356094 361091 364088 368088 
      372090 373093 376099 379101 391094 395095 401094 400102 
      397104 395109 391114 391117 393116 397117 404120 414121 
      418120 420119 426112 432110 438111 443108 448101 
 0.25 413060 410054 405049 401047 397047 390045 384039 380033 
      377029 374022 373012 373004 375993 377985 379978 383971 
      386964 389957 391950 392940 392929 390917 387911 382906 
      376902 371897 367892 363883 360875 358864 355855 352851 
      350851 344855 340861 337866 334873 330888 325903 321916 
      316928 308941 296967 292978 289985 289990 289995 300001 
      305005 310000 316990 320985 326979 332975 339973 345973 
      351975 355980 355991 354011 354017 355028 357037 359044 
      360048 359053 360059 361062 367067 372073 375080 377083 
      380084 384085 387083 395081 401078 408073 412066 413060 
 0.50 404061 404057 401056 395058 391058 388061 386064 384068 
      381067 379064 375062 369060 368063 369066 375072 381074 
      385074 388076 392075 399072 398068 404062 404061 
 0.50 384940 384930 381923 377918 372913 367911 363906 359900 
      356892 352874 351865 348864 345867 342872 339878 335891 
      330902 327914 323927 322942 322951 320957 316969 313981 
      317979 320977 326972 330971 337968 343965 353957 363950 
      368951 372957 374957 376955 380949 384940 
 0.50 381050 381045 378040 375036 373032 371029 368022 366011 
      367004 368001 368993 363994 360001 359015 360024 361030 
      363034 365040 368043 375050 378052 381050 
 0.50 310958 309957 306958 306959 303960 302962 301964 300966 
      299969 298970 297973 296976 296979 297981 300979 302975 
      304972 305971 306968 307966 308965 309961 310958 
 1.00 356928 356919 355910 352903 348899 344894 341892 338897 
      336901 333915 331927 331934 329941 326952 325957 325959 
      328958 333963 337962 340960 348952 351948 353943 356930 
      356928 
 1.50 352922 351915 350908 348905 343906 340914 338923 334933 
      332941 331947 333951 339949 338953 337956 340956 345950 
      349942 351936 351933 352922 
 2.00 347923 347920 346916 345915 344917 343919 342921 341924 
      340925 340928 339930 338932 337936 337937 340936 341935 
      342933 343931 344929 346927 346925 347923  
 
24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 505863 503846 501841 497838 491841 487847 484858 482868 
      480887 480892 478889 474880 471867 467861 463861 457864 
      451868 445868 440872 433881 429888 427897 426905 427913 
      430920 434927 436930 439931 441930 442925 442918 443913 
      446905 448902 452900 459895 461893 465892 466898 469905 
      469910 466914 463920 463927 466931 474931 480927 484925 
      488925 493922 498916 503907 505899 506887 506877 505863 
 0.01 442701 438692 435683 432678 427674 422672 416674 408677 
      402682 391692 384699 375708 369716 364724 359732 351749 
      346758 341765 335773 331780 325790 321800 318807 315812 
      309821 297835 291843 287851 283861 281869 279878 277888 
      276895 273904 270921 269934 270945 269954 268959 263969 
      261976 258986 259993 261999 264008 270026 285034 290040 
      295047 299055 301059 302062 300065 299069 301075 305084 
      310086 316085 319084 321086 323092 329102 331105 336108 
      342109 344107 346104 346100 348094 351090 359093 366092 
      375089 385089 390087 392083 397081 402083 409088 421095 
      424098 424106 426109 429109 435108 440112 448112 455112 
      461111 470107 470100 472091 473084 478082 486077 492070 
      493063 490059 482053 474049 465044 455040 447035 439036 
      435035 427027 423022 417019 413019 410021 408028 404042 
      399050 395053 394053 389050 387045 380039 377033 377028 
      387015 393011 404008 415010 419011 423009 425003 425998 
      424994 419984 415978 410973 405972 398973 389994 377007 
      371014 368016 362017 355017 351016 344012 337005 331005 
      326007 319011 314011 309010 309006 310002 313997 316996 
      320991 323985 323979 324972 327965 326962 328958 330954 
      333950 337940 339936 339931 339920 341908 343900 346891 
      351883 359878 361875 367872 372872 373876 371888 366899 
      356922 353932 351939 353942 357943 362941 370937 377930 
      384922 394907 403891 405888 410885 413882 418879 435861 
      437855 438846 436839 432838 429841 420848 416853 413852 
      410836 410831 410825 411814 414804 416799 420795 425787 
      430767 440747 444734 445721 443707 442701 
 0.25 421707 419704 414699 410699 406700 400705 393711 382724 
      371737 358754 348767 340780 337788 335793 335800 333804 
      329812 321826 315838 310852 306859 301868 293880 290887 
      289895 287909 283947 280960 277969 275976 274985 275992 
      277996 280004 283007 286008 293005 297000 307990 332930 
      335908 339893 341885 345878 352866 357859 364850 371847 
      377845 383841 387834 390827 395819 399812 404801 408793 
      410785 413777 415769 419752 422737 423727 422714 421707 
 0.25 450080 452076 451072 450071 447069 444069 444072 447076 
      450080 450080 
 0.25 373068 371058 368050 358037 352031 346028 338025 334026 
      330028 324033 318036 311042 311047 313049 318057 323062 
      329068 331075 335084 339084 342082 349078 355074 362068 
      369068 373068 
 0.50 415724 414717 411713 407712 402715 389727 369748 362756 
      357764 348778 345784 341790 340797 339804 337812 332820 
      328826 326832 324839 323846 322854 319861 316868 312876 
      306880 302886 299891 297898 296905 297915 298921 298925 
      294933 291939 290946 288953 287963 286969 283973 280981 
      280987 281993 285999 291999 296996 301991 304986 306981 
      309972 312964 316957 320953 324948 327941 328934 329925 
      330916 333907 337891 342877 347867 350858 355849 358843 
      364838 376829 385816 410757 413746 414737 415724 
 0.50 357061 358056 357051 353044 349041 341039 335036 329039 
      325045 325051 326055 330059 335064 338067 338072 340074 
      344074 350071 354065 357061 
 1.00 404740 404735 402731 399730 394733 392735 385743 377752 
      367768 357785 352793 351803 350809 352815 352818 355816 
      362810 364806 365801 366791 367787 372782 380778 383778 
      388774 388769 391765 396757 399752 401747 404740 
 1.00 341865 341861 339857 333857 326866 317883 316889 317896 
      315907 309925 308932 305936 301943 296954 295960 298966 
      303967 306964 311956 318949 324942 326928 327918 333896 
      338876 341865 
 1.00 294986 292984 289984 288987 288990 290993 292989 293989 
      294986 
 1.50 337870 337865 335862 330865 325874 321880 320886 321890 
      321894 320899 316910 313921 313928 316925 319926 321929 
      323925 323919 325915 327908 328903 332891 330881 336871 
      337870 
 1.50 321939 320933 319933 314936 312938 307942 304946 302949 
      300953 298957 300963 304962 306960 308956 311953 313950 
      316947 320943 321939 
 2.00 334871 335867 332867 331868 330870 325877 327878 331874 
      333871 334871 
 2.00 328897 328893 326891 323895 321899 320903 318908 316913 
      315917 317920 320919 322915 324911 326907 328900 328897 
 2.00 315944 315943 312942 310944 309945 307946 305949 302952 
      302953 301956 303957 306955 308952 310950 312948 313946 
      315944 315944 
 3.00 325901 325898 324897 324898 322901 322902 321906 320906 
      320909 321912 324908 325905 325902 325901  
 
$$