AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
248 PM MDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
CURRENTLY...DRY LINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD TO THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH             
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS EAST OF THE                 
MOUNTAINS. DEEP MIXING BEGINNING TO CRANK UP WIND SPEEDS MANY                   
AREAS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AT 20Z.                                        
TONIGHT...LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC BOTH KEEP THE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY                 
STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH THIS                    
EVENING. NEITHER NAM OR GFS BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP THIS EVENING OVER              
THE PLAINS...BUT LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT OVER              
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH              
SUBTLE DRY LINE BULGE AND LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. COUPLE                  
MESONET OBS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN WESTERN KS HINT AT THIS AS                   
WELL...WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS              
IN PLACE ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE                      
POTENTIAL...THOUGH IN THE END WONDER IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN AS                 
UPPER LOW MAY BE TOO FAR WEST AND CONVERGENCE TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME              
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION. FARTHER WEST...COULD SEE A FEW -SHSN             
BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INITIAL                
SURGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST. DOUBT WE`LL SEE                
MUCH PRECIP INITIALLY AS VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE TIME TO                  
MOISTEN.                                                                        
SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH BROAD AREA OF               
UPWARD MOTION MOVING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. DRYLINE NEVER APPEARS              
TO MAKE MUCH OF PUSH WESTWARD IN THE MORNING...AND BY AFTERNOON AXIS            
OF DEEP INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE KS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. KEPT THE                 
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR EAST...ALONG WITH A MENTION OF                
SEVERE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS 50 PLUS KNOTS AND CAPES WELL OVER 1000                 
J/KG. ELSEWHERE...SUSPECT MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIP...AS LOW              
LEVEL AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND STRONG S-SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS            
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN                  
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TO LOW CHANCES...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED              
IF MANY AREAS ALONG I-25 STAYED DRY. ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FIRE             
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STRONG                
WINDS ALOFT...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS LACK THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V             
PROFILE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYERS.                  
OVERALL...FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NEEDED ONLY MINOR                      
ADJUSTMENTS.  --PETERSEN                                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SAT NITE THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT EVENING AND ESPECIALLY               
   MONDAY...                                                                    
...A WET MONDAY NITE AND TUESDAY...(HEAVY WET SNOW FOR N EL PASO                
   COUNTY?)...                                                                  
CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORT WAVE              
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE S CALIF AS I WRITE WILL BE THE WEATHER                 
MAKER EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THIS WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF                  
ROTATING CONVECTION TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS BORDER BY                
OOZ SUNDAY. THE QUESTION IS NOT WILL CONVECTION FORM...BUT WHERE                
AND HOW FAST WILL IT MOVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION                   
MAY BE OUT OF CO BY 00Z SUNDAY...BUT ITS BEST TO KEEP THE MENTION               
OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING.                 
ALL PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW...INCLUDIGN SUFFICIENT                 
SHEAR AND CAPE...SO WHEN STORMS GO UP...THEY WILL ROTATE. SPC                   
ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS WITH A STRONGLY               
WORDED MOD RISK (AND ASSOCIATED DAY 2 HIGH PROBABILITIES) JUST EAST             
OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                     
AFTER THIS SYSTEM GOES BY...A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOMS FOR MONDAY. AT              
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ALL OF THE E CO PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE                 
GUN AS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD              
STRENGTHING SE FLOW AT THE SFC. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER                 
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SIMULATIONS                 
SHOW THAT SUFFICIENT CAPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH INCREASING              
FORCING...SO I ANTICIPATE QUITE A FEW SUPERCELLS...SOME                         
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO GET WOUND UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT              
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SE CO INTO NW KS. WRAPAROUND PRECIP WILL DEVELOP            
BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND IT WILL GET WET ACROSS THE E                   
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DVD. WE MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH A               
SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. HEAVY WET SNOW              
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. ITS STILL TOO EARLY              
TO KNOW IF THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION INDICATES IT              
IS A POSSIBILITY.                                                               
FOR THE MTNS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF                
OPPURTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW                 
MTNS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODERATE SW FLOW ALONG WITH               
FAVORABEL LAPSE RATES MOVE OVER THIS REGION.                                    
BY LATE TUE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. NEXT WX              
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN               
COOLER AIR AND JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHTER PRECIP. /HODANISH                  
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
324 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES TONIGHT.                           
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A 90KT JET AT H3 MOVING AROUND THE             
BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AT H5, HEIGHT FALLS OF +70M WERE FOUND JUST             
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AT FLAGSTAFF, AZ WITH +150M HEIGHT RISES ACROSS              
WEST CENTRAL CA. STRONG S/WV SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. ACROSS                
HIGH PLAINS, +8C TEMPERATURES AT H7 DOMINATED. MOISTURE POOL OF +10C            
AT H85 WAS STREAMING ACROSS WESTERN TX/EASTERN NM AND MOVING                    
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KS. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING MOISTURE                
POOLING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND ALONG THE DRYLINE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST            
CO SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NM.                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INITIALLY WILL BE START OF CONVECTION TODAY               
INTO TONIGHT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE              
STORMS AGAIN MONDAY.                                                            
NAM/RUC INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH 12Z UPPER AIR DATA. NAM/RUC ALSO           
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON H85 MOISTURE THIS AM. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WERE ALL               
VERY SIMILAR IN TROF POSITION BUT LACKING SOME MOISTURE PROFILE AS              
NAM. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM/RUC FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                         
EXPECT TO SEE STORM INITIATION FURTHER WEST AFTER 21Z TODAY. LIS ARE            
ALREADY FALLING INTO THE -1C TO -5C RANGE WITH BULK OF CWA FALLING TO           
AT LEAST -4C BY 00Z SUN. SBCAPE ALSO INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON                
WELL OVER 1200 J/KG. MUCAPE VIA CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE WAS               
+1000J/KG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0C/KM. 0-1KM HELICITY IS              
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +100M2/S2 WITH 0-3KM IN EXCESS OF 200M2/S2              
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 21Z TODAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS             
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 60S ACROSS CENTRAL TX CONTINUING TO            
ADVECT NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S ACROSS CWA BY EVENING. AS                
STRONG UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FA, STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.              
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER               
00Z SUN. 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO                      
+200M2/S2, ESPECIALLY AROUND AND EAST OF A DIGHTON TO GARDEN CITY TO            
LIBERAL LINE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW                  
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION, PRECIPTABLE WATER              
VALUES EXCEED 1" FROM LAKIN TO ULYSSES TO HUGOTON AND EAST AFTER 00Z            
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FINALLY ENTERS FA BY 06Z ACROSS THE WEST WHILE               
FURTHER EAST, PW VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ALL OF THE               
ABOVE IN MIND, IT APPEARS THAT EARLY ON, BULK OF ACTIVITY, IN THE               
FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, WILL BE WEST NEAR DRYLINE/SURFACE                  
FRONT. AS EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,                    
PORTIONS OF CWA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW                      
TORNADOES. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, STORMS WILL                  
EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE THREAT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS            
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS                  
FURTHER EAST ACROSS FA.                                                         
AS SURFACE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTH CENTRAL              
NE BY 18Z SUN, PRECIP WILL ALSO MOVE OUT OF FA. DO NOT ANY PRECIP               
ACROSS WESTERN FA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND BULK OF PRECIP ENDING EAST              
BY 12Z SUN. CURRENT FORECAST HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER 12Z SUN             
ACROSS NORTHERN FA AND CONSIDERING EXPECTED SPEED OF SYSTEM, THIS               
APPEARS REASONABLE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN FA SHOULD             
MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS FA              
AND H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE WEST WITH            
COOLER READING NEAR THE DEPARTING STORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL             
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S GIVEN DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 40S.                        
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS TO CREATE SEVERE              
CONCERN. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER             
THE ROCKIES. CURRENT INDICATION ARE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE             
LOWER 60S PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS VERY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING            
MOISTURE (+60 DEWPOINTS), INSTABILITY (HIGH CAPE, LIS, HELICITY,                
ETC.) AND LIFT (LEADING SHORTWAVE) APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE             
AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY, SEVERE THREAT IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.              
WILL BACK OFF OF POPS STARTING AT 18Z AND START THEM INSTEAD AT 21Z             
MON. OTHER CHANGE PLANNED FOR THIS PERIOD IS HIGH TEMPERATURES.                 
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER GIVEN H85                    
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C WEST AND 14C EAST.                                  
IN ADDITION, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL              
200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING.                                                      
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD ARE PREDICTING THE IMPACTS OF TWO               
MORE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM SYTEMS ONTO MY CWA.                            
WEATHER-CLIMATE SITUATION REMAINS VERY COMPLEX MEANING THERE ARE                
INTERACTIONS INVOLVING MULTIPLE TIME AND SPACE-SCALE SIGNALS.  FOR              
OUR PURPOSES THESE INCLUDE: 1) LOCAL SST AND EXTRATROPICALLY FORCED             
ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM INDONESIA INTO THE SOUTH            
PACIFIC, AND 2) A DYNAMICAL SIGNAL STRUGGLING TO GET BETTER                     
ORGANIZED FROM THE EQUATORAL ATLANTIC INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN.                    
ANOMALOUS ZONAL MEAN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS                   
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATMOSPHERES AS               
ANOMALOUS TWIN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS               
THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.  MONITORING TOOLS INCLUDING A PHASE SPACE               
PLOT OF THE NORMALIZED TENDENCY OF RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR                 
MOMENTUM AND RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM AVAILABLE FROM               
ESRL/PSD INDICATE THE GLOBAL CIRCULATION REMAINS IN GSDM STAGE 4.               
SHOULD THE DYNAMICAL SIGNAL DISCUSSED ABOVE LEAD TO A MJO, PERHAPS              
AN EVOLUTION TO GSDM STAGE 1 WILL OCCUR LATER WEEK 2 OR WEEK 3.                 
REGIONALLY, WE STILL DO HAVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC EQUATORIAL WESTERLY             
WIND ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.  THESE WESTERLIES, INTERACTING            
WITH A BAROCLINIC WAVE PACKET COMING OFF OF EAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH             
PACIFIC CONVECTION, WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE NORTH                 
PACIFIC JET BY WEEK 2.  AHEAD OF ALL THIS, AND AS ALREADY SEEN ON               
FULL DISK SATELLITE IMAGERY, TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE             
USA WEEK 1.  WE MAY SEE SOME RESPITE FROM THIS ACTIVE REGIME WEEK 2             
BEFORE MORE STORMS ON THE PLAINS AFTERWARDS.                                    
FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, I PREFER THE SLOWER MODEL              
SOLUTIONS SUCH THE DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE              
ESRL/PSD ENSEMBLE.  SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOWS THROUGH THE ROCKIES                 
COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ARE MORE PROBABLE DURING GSDM STAGE 4.  I            
JUST STOPPED SHORT OF GOING LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER,            
TOMORROW I NOT ONLY MAY DO THAT (LATER SHIFTS MAY ALSO CONSIDER),               
BUT ALSO INSERT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR             
THIS PERIOD.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WILL NOT BE              
AN ISSUE FOR THIS NEXT STORM.  WEDNESDAY MAY BE A DAY WITH STRONG               
NORTH WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS.  I LEFT THE MAXES ALONE; HOWEVER,                 
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.  THURSDAY WILL BE A BREAK              
WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                     
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
FOR NOW I WENT WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY 30 PERCENT POPS; HOWEVER, I MAY             
ALSO RAISE THOSE TOMORROW.  I LEFT TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMATOLOGY              
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER RAISING MAXES               
AND MINS FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY.                                                   
OUR WEEK 2 FORECAST (APRIL 29TH - MAY 5TH) WILL READ NEAR NORMAL FOR            
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC FOR PEOPLE              
WHO DO NOT WANT MORE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MY CWA HAS BEEN IMPROVING ALLOWING MVFR CIGS            
TO PERSIST DESPITE STRONG MIXING WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.               
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING PER SPC SHOWS OUR DEWPOINT AT 850MB TO BE 10.9C            
MEANING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER.  I MAINTAINED THE            
MVFR CIGS TO ABOUT 21Z.  ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                
INITIATE ALONG A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE                    
COLORADO BORDER AFTER 21Z, AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A MCS AFTER 00Z.                
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF             
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES UNTIL THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A                
CLUSTER.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IMPACTING GCK BY AROUND 00Z             
AND THEN INTO HYS BY ABOUT 03Z.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY              
FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AROUND GCK               
AND DDC.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  53  72  48  76 / 100  10   0  40                                           
GCK  51  72  46  75 / 100  10   0  40                                           
EHA  49  74  47  80 / 100   0   0  40                                           
LBL  51  73  48  79 / 100   0   0  40                                           
HYS  53  70  45  73 /  90  40   0  40                                           
P28  57  75  52  78 /  90  10   0  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-                  
043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN30/23/23                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
556 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH MID CLOUDS THINNING AND RADAR SHOWING ACTIVITY OFF TO THE FAR              
NORTH...WILL BE DOING A FORECAST UPDATE TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS                
MORNING.  LATEST RUC STILL SHOWING SOME QPF POTENTIAL BUT IT WOULD              
HAVE HAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH            
THE NIGHT.  06Z NAM HAD SOME SPOTTY QPF FOR THE AM BUT FURTHER WEST             
OF CWA.  LATEST WATER VAPOR NOT GIVING ANY SIGNS FOR UPPER SUPPORT              
OVER CWA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
PF                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
455 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING            
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FOR THE WEEKEND...CONCERNS ARE HOW FAST            
THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.  BEYOND THE            
WEEKEND HAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.           
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING SEVERAL LOBES OF               
UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND COMING INTO THE WEST                    
COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLIDING SLOWLY             
SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE PATTERN HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS               
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA                
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN A                 
CHANNEL OF 50 DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID 50             
DEWPOINTS ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  SURFACE                
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  IN THE CORE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE AND WITH THE AID OF THE TAIL END OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA...AND WARM                      
ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST              
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THURSDAY EVENING...MOVING TO THE                
NORTHEAST.  ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL CLOUD              
BAND LINGERS.  THE EVENING RUC MODEL SHOWED SOME QPF POTENTIAL OVER             
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND THE 00Z NAM HAD                
SOME SPOTTY QPF AS WELL...AND WITH THE MID CLOUDS AROUND...LEFT SOME            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHCENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS                  
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY AND PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  WITH THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE               
WAY OF CAP AND IN THE VICINITY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HAVE LEFT              
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS A COUNTY OR SO              
FURTHER EAST.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH WINDS AND                    
INCREASING CLOUDS HELPING KEEP READINGS MILD.                                   
MODELS STILL SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW FOR THE            
WEEKEND WEATHER.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER              
THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING IT WINDY WHILE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH AND             
WESTWARD.  UPPER DYNAMICS AND FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE             
FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY                
MOVING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT.  NAM IS MUCH SLOWER IN PUSHING THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST AND FOR NOW FAVORING THE BIT MORE                    
PROGRESSIVE GFS AS SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACTS AS             
KICKER WHEN IT DIVES SOUTH.  INCREASED THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA              
INTO THE "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY NIGHT....THEN SPREAD            
THAT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE             
WESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS                      
SATURDAY.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS...LOWS                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN MILD...IN THE MIDDLE 50S.                                  
ON SUNDAY...UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ON THE GFS...THE               
NAM A BIT SLOWER.  AGAIN GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SOME                 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SATURDAY NIGHT                
CONVECTION. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE            
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  HAVE COMPROMISED ON GFS/NAM MOVEMENT THUS LEFT            
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY EVENING...THE GFS WOULD HAVE PRECIP             
EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z MON.                                                    
ONLY SOME MINOR BLENDING CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY                
NIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.  NEXT WAVE                  
ENTERS THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOMES A SLOW MOVER IN THE SOUTHERN                 
STREAM GIVING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY               
INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE             
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY              
AND THURSDAY...LOWS MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PF                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
455 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING            
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FOR THE WEEKEND...CONCERNS ARE HOW FAST            
THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.  BEYOND THE            
WEEKEND HAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.           
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING SEVERAL LOBES OF               
UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND COMING INTO THE WEST                    
COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLIDING SLOWLY             
SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE PATTERN HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS               
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA                
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN A                 
CHANNEL OF 50 DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID 50             
DEWPOINTS ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  SURFACE                
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  IN THE CORE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE AND WITH THE AID OF THE TAIL END OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA...AND WARM                      
ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST              
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THURSDAY EVENING...MOVING TO THE                
NORTHEAST.  ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL CLOUD              
BAND LINGERS.  THE EVENING RUC MODEL SHOWED SOME QPF POTENTIAL OVER             
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND THE 00Z NAM HAD                
SOME SPOTTY QPF AS WELL...AND WITH THE MID CLOUDS AROUND...LEFT SOME            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHCENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS                  
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY AND PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  WITH THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE               
WAY OF CAP AND IN THE VICINITY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HAVE LEFT              
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS A COUNTY OR SO              
FURTHER EAST.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH WINDS AND                    
INCREASING CLOUDS HELPING KEEP READINGS MILD.                                   
MODELS STILL SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW FOR THE            
WEEKEND WEATHER.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER              
THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING IT WINDY WHILE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH AND             
WESTWARD.  UPPER DYNAMICS AND FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE             
FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY                
MOVING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT.  NAM IS MUCH SLOWER IN PUSHING THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST AND FOR NOW FAVORING THE BIT MORE                    
PROGRESSIVE GFS AS SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACTS AS             
KICKER WHEN IT DIVES SOUTH.  INCREASED THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA              
INTO THE "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY NIGHT....THEN SPREAD            
THAT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE             
WESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS                      
SATURDAY.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS...LOWS                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN MILD...IN THE MIDDLE 50S.                                  
ON SUNDAY...UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ON THE GFS...THE               
NAM A BIT SLOWER.  AGAIN GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SOME                 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SATURDAY NIGHT                
CONVECTION. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE            
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  HAVE COMPROMISED ON GFS/NAM MOVEMENT THUS LEFT            
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY EVENING...THE GFS WOULD HAVE PRECIP             
EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z MON.                                                    
ONLY SOME MINOR BLENDING CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY                
NIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.  NEXT WAVE                  
ENTERS THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOMES A SLOW MOVER IN THE SOUTHERN                 
STREAM GIVING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY               
INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE             
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY              
AND THURSDAY...LOWS MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PF                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                   
POTENTIAL TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS AN OUTBREAK IS                       
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL                 
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                        
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)                                                
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                  
BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES                
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY                 
SHOULD BE NEAR SW ARIZONA. STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM THROUGH              
LATE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS                
WILL INITIALLY DAMPEN THE STANDARD DIURNAL CURVE BUT SHOULDNT                   
EFFECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 70S.                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED                  
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A               
SURFACE TROUGH. EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH VARIES BETWEEN THE                 
NAM/GFS/RUC13 SO SOMEWHAT BROADBRUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
NOW. SOME STRATUS RETURNS TO THE AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT ANY ACTIVITY                 
THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE OR                  
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ANY PRECIP THAT                      
DEVELOPS SHOULD HAVE QUICKLY MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.                       
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THOSE               
COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE CO/KS BORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
AS UPPER LOW REACHES CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE                
GFS AT THIS POINT FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS AS USED HPC QPF.                
WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALL               
MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER                 
LOW ATOP THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER.               
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF              
THE CO/KS BORDER. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN A THREAT AS                    
STORMS REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75.                 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND                
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW. WILL                 
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY                   
WINDS DEVELOP AND GROUND SATURATED FROM THE EXPECTED RECENT RAINS.              
OTHER FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER                  
WHICH BY 12Z MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR SOUTHWEST UTAH...DIVING                      
SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE               
PRECIP MOVES OUT FASTER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT WARMER                 
THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF ITS SLOWER THEN WILL NEED TO TREND                  
DOWNWARD.                                                                       
.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)                                                    
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. VFR CLEAR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF             
A STRAY PATCH OF CIRRUS. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AT DET AND            
DTW...WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS WELL FROM LAKE                   
BREEZES FROM LAKE ERIE AND ST. CLAIR. BY SUNDAY MORNING...STRONGER              
GRADIENT BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SSW WIND TO INCREASE             
TO 12 TO 17 KNOTS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1030 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR GRIDS EDITS. THOSE MINOR EDITS             
WERE TO BRING MORE LAKE BREEZE IN THE WIND GRIDS...AND LOWER THE DEW            
POINTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. RUC SURFACE WINDS WERE MUCH BETTER            
THAN NAM IN REGARD TO THE LAKE BREEZE. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO            
PUSH IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES TODAY GIVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE               
REGION AND THE LAND/LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THEN THE DEW POINTS            
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 30 NOW THAT WE HAVE              
STARTED TO MIX THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH               
MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN 12Z SOUNDING AND WEAK SURFACE WIND.                       
TEMPS IN GENERAL RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS. 12Z             
SOUNDING MIXING TO 750 MB...WHICH WE DID YESTERDAY...WOULD YIELD                
ABOUT 74.  ALL OF THIS RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.                     
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE ONLY VARIATION ON THE THEME OF IDEAL WEATHER IN SE MICHIGAN                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE             
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO                  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE             
ABOUT A CATEGORY OVER YESTERDAY, MEANING MID 70S OVER SE LOWER AWAY             
FROM THE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE                
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WE WILL TAILOR HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IN                 
THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LAKE BREEZE. THE               
MOST DRAMATIC ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE            
UPPER 50S WILL BE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE              
DAY.                                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INCREASE              
THE GRADIENT OVER SE MICHIGAN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MUCH OF AN                   
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS STRONG DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE              
NIGHT. THE RESULTING SLOW RETURN IN SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP                  
DEW POINT IN THE UPPER 30S AND ALLOW ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT BEING SAID, EVEN A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING            
KEEPS READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                   
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM              
INTO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST                         
GRADIENT...LEADING TO MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT                  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 80              
DEGREES TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES REGION.                                           
EVEN SO...NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO THE RH                 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 25 PERCENT. 00Z NAM/GFS INDICATING                
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AFTER SUBTRACTING               
OUT THE MOIST LOW LEVEL BIAS OF THE MODELS (UP TO 10 DEGREES AS                 
OBSERVED YESTERDAY)...STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEW              
POINTS BELOW 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT RH`S AT OR              
BELOW 25 PERCENT. IT LOOKS TO REAL CLOSE CALL AND WOULD NOT TOTALLY             
RULE OUT A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED OVER MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW               
COUNTIES HOWEVER.                                                               
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHERN              
CALIFORNIA TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.                  
INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AND SUPPORT JUST A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                          
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY MONDAY                         
EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE                  
OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PER 00Z                
EUROPEAN.                                                                       
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE SLIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY                   
EVENING WILL CAUSE 850-700 MB FGEN TO INCREASE ALONG WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER                              
MICHIGAN...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE              
OHIO BORDER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE              
OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS EVEN INDICATING THE                  
SHOWALTER INDEX GOING NEGATIVE NEAR THE BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED A               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS WELL.                           
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON                   
WEDNESDAY AND TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE             
HURON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...RBP                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BT/RBP                                                             
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1032 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR GRIDS EDITS. THOSE MINOR EDITS             
WERE TO BRING MORE LAKE BREEZE IN THE WIND GRIDS...AND LOWER THE DEW            
POINTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. RUC SURFACE WINDS WERE MUCH BETTER            
THAN NAM IN REGARD TO THE LAKE BREEZE. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO            
PUSH IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES TODAY GIVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE               
REGION AND THE LAND/LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THEN THE DEW POINTS            
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 30 NOW THAT WE HAVE              
STARTED TO MIX THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH               
MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN 12Z SOUNDING AND WEAK SURFACE WIND.                       
TEMPS IN GENERAL RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS. 12Z             
SOUNDING MIXING TO 750 MB...WHICH WE DID YESTERDAY...WOULD YIELD                
ABOUT 74.  ALL OF THIS RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 647 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE ONLY VARIATION ON THE THEME OF IDEAL WEATHER IN SE MICHIGAN                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE             
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO                  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE             
ABOUT A CATEGORY OVER YESTERDAY, MEANING MID 70S OVER SE LOWER AWAY             
FROM THE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE                
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WE WILL TAILOR HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IN                 
THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LAKE BREEZE. THE               
MOST DRAMATIC ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE            
UPPER 50S WILL BE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE              
DAY.                                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INCREASE              
THE GRADIENT OVER SE MICHIGAN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MUCH OF AN                   
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS STRONG DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE              
NIGHT. THE RESULTING SLOW RETURN IN SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP                  
DEW POINT IN THE UPPER 30S AND ALLOW ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT BEING SAID, EVEN A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING            
KEEPS READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                   
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM              
INTO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST                         
GRADIENT...LEADING TO MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT                  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 80              
DEGREES TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES REGION.                                           
EVEN SO...NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO THE RH                 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 25 PERCENT. 00Z NAM/GFS INDICATING                
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AFTER SUBTRACTING               
OUT THE MOIST LOW LEVEL BIAS OF THE MODELS (UP TO 10 DEGREES AS                 
OBSERVED YESTERDAY)...STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEW              
POINTS BELOW 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT RH`S AT OR              
BELOW 25 PERCENT. IT LOOKS TO REAL CLOSE CALL AND WOULD NOT TOTALLY             
RULE OUT A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED OVER MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW               
COUNTIES HOWEVER.                                                               
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHERN              
CALIFORNIA TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.                  
INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AND SUPPORT JUST A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                          
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY MONDAY                         
EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE                  
OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PER 00Z                
EUROPEAN.                                                                       
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE SLIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY                   
EVENING WILL CAUSE 850-700 MB FGEN TO INCREASE ALONG WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER                              
MICHIGAN...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE              
OHIO BORDER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE              
OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS EVEN INDICATING THE                  
SHOWALTER INDEX GOING NEGATIVE NEAR THE BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED A               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS WELL.                           
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON                   
WEDNESDAY AND TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE             
HURON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.                            
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR AVIATION                
INTERESTS TODAY BUT LOSE ITS GRIP A BIT TONIGHT WHILE SLIDING                   
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY              
THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A STRAY PATCH OF CUMULUS OR PATCH OF                 
CIRRUS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY                       
COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BT                                                                   
SHORT TERM...BT/RBP                                                             
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG CENTERED              
OVER THE GRT LKS BTWN TROFS IN THE WRN ATLANTIC AND OVER THE W. SFC             
HI CENTER OVER LWR MI AND DRY/STABLE AIRMASS (PWAT 0.40 INCH E TO               
0.60 INCH W) SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS BRINGING A TRANQUIL NGT TO THE            
FA. CLOSEST PCPN IS SOME SHRA/ TSRA MOVING THRU WRN MN WHERE PAIR OF            
SHRTWVS NOTED BY RUC ANALYSIS MOVING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE              
WRN FLANK OF UPR RDG INTERACTING WITH HIER H85 DWPTS/LLJ AXIS/MORE              
SGNFT MSTR CNVGC/AXIS OF H7-5 LAPSE RATE AOA 8C/KM. HI CLD BLOWING              
DOWNSTREAM FM THIS CLUSTER OF CNVCTN MOVING TOWARD WRN LK SUP. A                
MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED OVER SRN CA MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THE WRN            
TROF. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY INTO SUN WL BE FIRE WX. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO            
PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION BTWN SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN CA               
AND THE OTHER NOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                          
FOR TDAY...NAM F0 APPEARS TO HAVE VERY GOOD HANDLE ON SHRTWV                    
STRUCTURE/STABILITY/MSTR OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPR LKS...SO WL FOLLOW             
ITS GUIDANCE. THIS MODEL SHOWS UPR RDG REMAINING PRETTY MUCH IN                 
PLACE TDAY DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGER HGT FALLS OVER THE WRN PLAINS                 
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SYS LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW. SFC HI                 
CENTER PROGGED TO DRIFT S TO NEAR CLE BY 00Z...WITH STRENGTHING SLY             
FLOW (H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 30KT BY 00Z SUN) BTWN THIS HI AND FALLING            
PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN. SHARP RDG FCST TO DEFLECT WEAKER              
SHRTWVS NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS MORE NNE VS E...SO NAM FCST              
SHRA STAYING TO THE W SEEMS RSNBL. GFS ALSO IS DRY. WL HOWEVER                  
MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER WRN LK SUP CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER                     
RETURNING H85 DWPTS/KINX  THRU MN AND WHERE SOME DEEP LYR H85-3                 
QVECTOR CNVGC NOTED. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD OVER             
THE W WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO THE E DEEPER INTO DRIER AIRMASS. MIXING             
TO H8 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS RISING TO ARND 73 OVER THE             
W...WITH DWPT ARND 40 (RH 30 PCT). AIRMASS WL REMAIN DRIER OVER THE             
E BUT TEMPS WL BE LOWER DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WL ISSUE WILDFIRE                    
POTENTIAL STATEMENT TO STRESS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS.                 
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW PROGGED TO REACH KS BY               
12Z SUN WHILE SYS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO APRCH LK WINNIPEG.              
GUIDANCE SHOWS UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING E A TAD...BUT GFS/NAM INDICATE             
ALL OF LAND FA WL REMAIN DRY WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING A CAPPED WARM              
SECTOR. WL INCLUDE CHC SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN/NRN LK SUP AS SHRTWS                  
MOVING ARND RDG AXIS PASS NW OF THE FA AND INTERACT WITH AXIS OF                
HIER H85 DWPT CLOSER TO EDGE OF CAP. GFS/NAM FCST H925 WINDS ARND               
40KT ON WRN FLANK OF SFC HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SO LOOK              
FOR RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE MORE               
CLR OVER THE SCNTRL AND E. MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM                  
IWD-P59-MQT-P53 WL NOT FALL BLO 50. GOING FCST LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD               
HANDLE ON PATTERN OF LO TEMPS...BUT BUMPED UP EXPECTED TEMPS IN                 
DOWNSLOPE AREAS TOWARD HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                                  
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD                
INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z MON AND WEAKENING AS SYS MOVES AWAY FM            
LARGER SCALE WRN TROF. MEANWHILE...OTHER SHRTWV MOVING ACRS SRN CAN             
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. AS SHRTWVS CLOSE IN            
ON THE FA AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ARRIVING IN THE AFTN...              
MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING OVER THE NW ERODING BTWN 18Z-24Z.               
GFS IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE AT MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AND                 
GENERATING QPF OVER THE W. CONSIDERING THE DRY AND CAPPED ANTECEDENT            
AIRMASS AND THE VERY LATE ARRIVAL OF THE MORE SGNFT DYNAMICS WITH               
THE SHRTWV PAIR REMAINING OUT OF PHASE...PREFER THE SLOWER NAM. THIS            
MODEL GENERATES ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT IWD BEFORE 00Z              
MON. THE UKMET IS ALSO SLOWER TO SATURATE THE AIR OVER THE FAR W AS             
WELL. LARGE SCALE ACYC H85 FLOW FCST AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX...             
SO PCPN IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SFC FNT ACCOMPANYING THE                
ONTARIO SHRTWV PASSES AND FAIRLY SHARP H85-7 FGEN ARRIVES SUN                   
EVNG...WL KEEP THE LAND FA DRY ON SUN. FARTHER E...PCPN ON SUN IS A             
NON ISSUE WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALL DAY. MIXING TO H825 OR SO ON              
NAM FCST SDNGS IN THE WARM SECTOR SUG HI TEMPS WL APRCH 80 AWAY FM              
THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SINCE RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING WL              
ALSO TAP DRIER LYR FCST ARND H85...DWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE                 
MID-UPR 30S IN THE AFTN OVER THE E AND DROP THE RH TOWARD 25 PCT IN             
AREAS THAT ESCAPE SGNFT COOLING DOWNWIND OF LK MI.                              
SFC LO/LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING UP FM THE UPR MS              
VALLEY PROGGED TO REACH THE SRN ZNS BY 12Z MON WHILE SFC COLD FNT               
ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV MOVING ACRS ONTARIO REACHES THE CNTRL ZNS PER               
PREFERRED NAM/UKMET. PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED GOING FCST OF LIKELY                
POPS ADVANCING W-E WITH THESE FEATURES. SINCE MODELS CONSISTENTLY               
SHOW PAIR OF SHRTWVS REMAINING OUT OF PHASE...SUSPECT ACCOMPANYING              
SHRA WL NOT BE TOO HEAVY WITH FAIRLY HEALTHY H85-7 FGEN BEHIND NRN              
BRANCH COLD FNT TENDING TO STAY FARTHER N. FCST SDNGS SHOW RATHER               
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES...SO CALLED PCPN LIKELY -SHRA WITH JUST A              
CHC T.                                                                          
SINCE EVEN THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET BRING MUCH DRIER E INTO THE FA ON               
MON AFTN...CUT POPS W-E FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. GFS SHOWS NEXT               
SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SW FARTHER N TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST ON TUE            
WITH SOME LGT QPF OVER THE SRN TIER. UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO                  
BETTER AGREEMENT...FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/CNDN MODELS...            
WHICH SHOW THIS SYS/HIER RH REMAINING FARTHER S. SO NO CHGS MADE TO             
DRY TUE FCST.                                                                   
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE                  
HUDSON BAY HI PRES RDG SANDWICHED BTWN RDG OFF THE E COAST AND                  
ANOTHER OVER THE PAC NW. QUIET NITE OVER THE FA WITH HI PRES RDG                
AXIS AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB/01Z TAMDAR             
SDNG FM SAW DOMINATING. SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS ROTATING                  
ALMOST DUE N ON THE ERN FLANK OF NW TROF...SO ASSOCIATED MID/HI CLD             
MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EWD THRU MN E TOWARD THE UPR LKS WITH SE              
TRAJECTORIES MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS AT INL AS WELL. JUST A BIT HIER            
RH NOTED ON THE 00Z INL SDNG AT THE TOP OF THE PBL...BUT ASSOCIATED             
DIURNAL CU DSPTD SOON AFT SUNSET. ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHRTWV                    
DROPPING THRU WRN TROF TOWARD THE SW CONUS.                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO SAT ARE TEMPS/FIRE WX ISSUES WITH DRY RDG               
PROGGED TO REMAIN DOMINANT. AS RDG BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND             
SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SW CONUS LIFTS TO THE NE...FOCUS WL                
SHIFT TOWARD TIMING ARRIVAL OF ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN.                             
EXPECT ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVER THE FA TDAY UNDER SFC RDG. CENTER OF              
SFC HI PRES PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE CNTRL GRT LKS UNDER RISING UPR            
HGTS...SO LLVL FLOW WL SHIFT TO MORE SLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN              
ZNS. WITH REDUCED LK MODERATION AND H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO 6C             
OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT HI TEMPS OVER THE WCNTRL INTERIOR TO             
REACH APRCH 70 PER MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS. OTHER THAN               
SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME HI CLD OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH NRN                  
PLAINS TROF LIFTING N INTO CAN...SKIES WL BE SUNNY. MIXING TO H8 WL             
ALLOW SFC DWPTS TO FALL TOWARD 32 IN THE AFTN...WITH MIN RH FALLING             
TOWARD 25 PCT. RELATIVELY LGT WINDS WL KEEP OVERALL FIRE WX                     
SITUATION FM BECMG TOO CRITICAL.                                                
UPR RDG FCST TO DOMINATE AGAIN TNGT...SO EXPECT A QUIET PD WITH                 
MOCLR SKIES AGAIN. HI PRES CENTER FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR DTX BY 12Z               
SAT...SO RETURN SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS HIER THAN THIS MRNG WITH              
H925 WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. EXPECT THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR            
SCNTRL AND E.                                                                   
SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE SW CONUS FCST TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE             
OF WRN TROF AND LIFT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. WITH FALLING PRES IN               
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYS AND SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING SLOWLY TO               
THE E...PRES GRADIENT/SSW FLOW FCST TO INCRS OVER THE UPR LKS DURING            
THE DAY. OPTED TO REMOVE PCPN OVER THE LAND FA ON SAT GIVEN STRENGTH            
OF RDG/ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...BUT TENDED TO KEEP LO CHC POPS OVER             
WRN LK SUP AS GFS/UKMET/ECMWF HINT AT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING            
OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG TO THE NW AND INTERACTING WITH LLVL MSTR                
RETURN. MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE            
INTO THE LO 70S AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY            
THE GFS SHOW QUITE A BIT MORE LLVL MSTR RETURNING OVER THE W...WITH             
MIXING TO H8 INDICATING DWPTS WOULD FALL OFF TO ONLY 40 TO 45. THE              
NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL MSTR RETURN...AND MIXING TO H8               
WOULD ALLOW THE DWPT TO FALL TO ONLY ABOUT 37 (RH CLOSE TO 25                   
PERCENT). TEND TO PREFER THE DRIER NAM IDEA AT THIS POINT                       
CONSIDERING THE SLOWER EXPECTED BREAKDOWN OF THE RDG IN PRESENT HI              
AMPLITUDE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF INCRSG WINDS...MIXING OF FAIRLY               
DRY AIR...AND TEMPS REACHING AOA 70 AT A FEW PLACES WL PUSH OVERALL             
FIRE WX PARAMETERS TO NEAR CRITICAL LVLS.                                       
GFS/NAM SHOW H925 SW WINDS REACHING 35 TO 40 KTS SAT NGT IN A CAPPED            
WARM SECTOR...SO EXPECT A RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.              
READINGS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM P53-MQT-P59-IWD MAY NOT DROP BLO             
50. RESTRICTED POPS ON SAT TO OVER LK SUP CONSIDERING CAPPED FCST               
SDNGS IN WARM SECTOR. SUN WL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH STRONG SW FLOW             
CONTINUING AHEAD OF SHRTWV SLOWLY LIFTING NE. CONSIDERING EXPECTED              
SLOWER APRCH OF SHRTWV AND MORE SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH H85 TEMPS                 
APRCHG 15C...GOING FCST HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S AWAY FM LK MI            
MODERATION LOOK ON TRACK. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED THE UKMET/NAM            
SOLNS MORE THAN THE GFS. THESE MODELS HINT AT MORE LLVL MSTR AND SFC            
DWPTS IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RH IN THE 25 TO              
30 PCT RANGE. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET/CNDN MODELS ON                
FCST PROGRESSION OF SYS LIFTING OUT OF THE SW...SO CUT POPS SUN NGT.            
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
304 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED TODAY ALONG A THERMAL AXIS                  
FROM THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE TWIN PORTS...AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-35               
CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE TSTMS BECAME LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE                      
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SW LL FLOW ALLOWED FOR THE STORMS TO                  
MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE NNE AT 40 TO 45 KT. ALTHOUGH NO WIND                   
DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH THE FAST MOVING STORMS...PLENTY OF HALF                
INCH HAIL ACCOMPANIED THESE CELLS. THE THERMAL RIDGE HAS DRIFTED                
ABOUT 30 MILES EAST FROM THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ALONG A LINE                   
FROM BAYFIELD TO RICE LAKE...AND INTO THE ERN TWIN CITIES METRO.                
THE RUC ALSO SHOWS THIS REGION IS CO-LOCATED WITH A NARROW AREA                 
OF MAX ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE.              
THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL                
CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ALONG THE THERMAL RIDGE IN NW WIS THIS                     
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.                                             
FORECAST FOCUS TURNING TO THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS ON SUNDAY AS               
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION.              
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN                 
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A              
50 KT SW LLJ ENTERS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY             
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY            
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN WRN AND NRN MN. MINOR CHANGES TO POPS                    
OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH NAM/GFS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE                  
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE MAX QPF OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS                   
STRONGER AND DEEPENS THE SFC FRONT INTO A 998 LOW IN NC MN BY SUNDAY            
MORNING. DUE TO THE POOR HANDLING OF THE LINE OF STORMS                         
TODAY...SIGNIFICANT FURTHER SE THAN MODELS DEPICTED...DECREASED                 
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS PLACEMENT OF THE QPF OVERNIGHT.                        
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NW MN SUNDAY                      
MORNING...DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS BEHIND IT. MUCH            
DRIER AIR AND CAA WILL FILTER INTO NW MN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
EXTEND OF THE DRY AIR IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS AND             
NAM ARE BRINING IT FURTHER SE INTO THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS            
DRY AIR WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA TO SEE             
ANY STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO                    
TRENDING WITH A FASTER FROPA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS             
TO REFLECT THEES TRENDS.                                                        
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY              
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASS LAKE...TO HIBBING...AND INTO THE            
MN ARROWHEAD. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WI AND             
INTO SW MN...WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.             
MUCAPE VALUES SUNDAY AFTN/EVEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1000             
AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM                
100-200 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR               
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. REFER TO THE THE DAY TWO SPC OUTLOOK             
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                                                            
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR FA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME                 
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY               
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY               
AND MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL               
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED              
FOR NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM FROM CANADA.                                                             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  47  64  41  57 /  30  70  70  10                                           
INL  49  62  37  49 /  70  60  10  10                                           
BRD  55  65  43  62 /  40  70  70  10                                           
HYR  55  71  44  60 /  10  60  80  10                                           
ASX  53  70  42  57 /  10  70  70  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
915 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED EAST WHILE THE                  
STORM TRACK TO THE NNE. THE LINE OF STRUMS EXTENDS FROM                         
ELY...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR                
INTO THE TWIN CITES. RUC 925MB WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE                
ARE UPWARDS OF 30KT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A NOSE OF MAX H850 TEMPS              
AND WAA FEEDING INTO THE LINE OF STORMS. AT 9 AM...SMALL HAIL OF                
1/4 INCH WAS REPORTED IN HINCKLEY.                                              
INCREASED THE LIKELY TSTM POPS FURTHER EAST THIS MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...REMNANTS OF                  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS...HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO                  
AFFECT OUR WRN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS HAVE               
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS...BUT THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN                
FAIRLY MODEST. WE EXPECT THESE LINE OF STORMS TO SLOWLY SPREAD TO               
THE EAST...HOWEVER IT IS MOST LIKELY THEY WILL NOT REACH THE TWIN               
PORTS DUE TO DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL                 
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AND THE                   
NORTHERN HALF OF SAINT LOUIS COUNTY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM                     
FORECAST PRECIP IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW                 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.                
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP                 
AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT WRN AND NRN MINNESOTA WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED              
WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED. THIS FRONT ALONG                  
WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST                 
CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR                  
CWA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THERE                 
WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MUCAPE VALUES                   
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500            
J/KG...WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 100-200                 
J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ISOLATED              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                                           
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY                      
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS OUR ERN              
ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE               
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRYING                   
TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH                
COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA.                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  63  49  63  41 /  60  30  70  70                                           
INL  67  50  62  37 /  60  60  70  70                                           
BRD  73  54  65  43 /  60  40  70  50                                           
HYR  74  54  71  44 /  10  10  40  70                                           
ASX  73  53  70  42 /  10  10  40  70                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
620 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS AT MID AFTERNOON OVER NE SD IN ZONE                               
OF STRONG 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION...700-500MB LAPSE RATES                   
AROUND 7 DEG C/KM ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHERLY                 
LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR                
50 KNOTS TONIGHT WHILE PROGRESSING INTO NW MN. A SURGE IN THE 305K              
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IS SEEN ON THE GFS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN              
THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST LI`S ALSO GO              
NEGATIVE WITH TIME AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE              
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF                    
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER               
THE NORTHWEST CWA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE FA IS                       
DRY...QUITE BREEZY AND VERY WARM. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING                  
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A                    
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NE THROUGH NW MN               
INTO SUNDAY. HENCE...THE FOCUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE               
OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN CREEPING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS THE                
UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP. THIS PLACES EASTERN                
MN AND WESTERN WI IN THE HOT SEAT FOR A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER                
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF                 
SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SHOWERS TO END OVER EASTERN MN               
BY MONDAY MORNING AND OVER WEST CENTRAL WI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.                 
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING OUR WAY                
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS ENSEMBLE FOCUSES              
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN ON SOUTHWARD                
AND CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ATTM. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN               
THE WEEK WITH A COOL FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. HIGH               
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY PUSHED UP SOME MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER               
70S FROM MSP ON EAST AND SOUTH. RAISED LOWS AS WELL SATURDAY NIGHT              
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. LOWS/HIGHS NEXT WEEK CLOSE TO HPC                
VALUES WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD            
/MVFR CATEGORY/ DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT INTO                   
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PER PROGGED RUC/NAM 900MB              
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS...AFOREMENTIONED MVFR CONDITIONS               
ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK AT AXN...WHILE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD              
EXPERIENCE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY ALSO SEE                  
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SNEAK INTO AXN/STC/RWF OVERNIGHT ON THE                  
NOSE OF A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF                   
THUNDER FOR AXN WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHER. MODERATE TO STRONG                 
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT VEERING                   
TOWARD TRUE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS                
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/RAH                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
430 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THIS                
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT DOMINATE OVER OUR REGION.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIRLY                    
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW SPINNING               
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A RATHER LARGE RIDGE OVER THE MS                   
VALLEY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR CWA               
THIS WEEKEND AND DEFLECT THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE                
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE                   
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER             
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING             
FROM EASTERLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS A                  
RESULT. PLENTY OF INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD                
COVER. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND                 
SUNDAY FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT US FROM REACHING AFTERNOON            
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES            
WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. WITH                 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...SUNDAY MORNING             
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 50S AT             
MOST SITES. /22/                                                                
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)... GENERALLY                  
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
TUESDAY PERIODS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT                  
INFLUENCE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. A DISTURBANCE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH            
OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS               
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST OF MY BORDERS...AND THEN DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY            
SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH             
EARLY MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP TO GET INTO THE REGION                
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WESTERN ZONES WILL             
BRING A LITTLE MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...ALL            
THOSE LOOKING FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE DAYS FOR A MORE             
PROMISING DISTURBANCE SET TO SWING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH               
THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS              
SYSTEM...TRYING TO DAMPEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES OUR                    
LONGITUDE. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL RUN KEEPS THE                  
SYSTEM MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI            
VALLEYS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION A               
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW I`M LEANING ON THE                
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE            
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS GENERALLY HAD MORE SKILL IN THE                 
LONG-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST LATELY. THOSE LOOKING TO AVOID               
DROUGHT SHOULD WISH FOR A GOOD SOAKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND                     
HOPEFULLY WE CAN AVOID SEVERE WEATHER. I AM STILL GOING TO LEAVE THE            
HWO CLEAR WITH REGARDS TO THE THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PRESENT TIME                  
CONSIDERING QUESTION MARKS RELATING TO MOISTURE RETURN (AND                     
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY) AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. THOSE                   
UNCERTAINTIES SHOULD BE RESOLVED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                          
MODELS (SPECIFICALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN)              
DEVIATE EVEN MORE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE GFS               
SUGGESTS ANOTHER RATHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MARCH ACROSS THE                
REGION AROUND SATURDAY...ACTIVATING THE BAROCLINIC ZONES LEFT IN THE            
WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY`S SYSTEM. THE END RESULT WOULD BE ANOTHER            
GOOD SHOT AT RAIN FOLLOWED BY A COOL SHOT. AT THE OTHER END OF THE              
SPECTRUM...THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT PHASE THIS DISTURBANCE LIKE              
THE GFS...INSTEAD LEAVING IT ABANDONED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION.             
THAT SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE US WARM AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT                
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL COULD NOT BE RULED              
OUT GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A MEANDERING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.             
BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THE            
PAST FEW DAYS AND VARIOUS OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HELPING            
TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES MUCH. STILL HAVE TO HEDGE TOWARD THE EURO                
RIGHT NOW THOUGH...MAINLY BECAUSE ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG            
RANGE HAS BEEN SUPERIOR.                                                        
SO...AFTER A COOLER THAN AVERAGE APRIL THUS FAR WE CAN ANTICIPATE               
TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST             
OF THE MONTH. THAT EQUATES TO LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO                
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES. THAT                 
SAID...THE EURO MODEL DOES SUGGEST A BIT OF COOLING BEHIND THE                  
COMING FRONT NEXT THURSDAY...BUT ANY SUB-80 DEGREE WEATHER WILL                 
PROBABLY NOT LAST TOO LONG. GIVEN MY MENTIONED DISAGREEMENTS WITH               
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT I DEVIATED                
FROM GFS POP AND TEMP GUIDANCE A BIT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FOR                 
TEMPS...I GENERALLY WENT 1 TO 2 DEGREE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR                 
HIGHS (ESPECIALLY EAST) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR LOW TEMPS I               
CUT GUIDANCE A TOUCH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS DUE TO DRY AIR IN                 
PLACE...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE I FEEL A                 
LITTLE COOL AIR MAY WORK SOUTH INTO THE ARKLAMISS IN THE WAKE OF THE            
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS FOR POPS...GFS GUIDANCE GENERATES SOME SPURIOUS             
LOOKING POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY MINOR                 
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING LARGER DISTURBANCE. FEELING            
IS THAT GENERALLY STABLE AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN OUR AREA WILL NOT                
SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FORCING. DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT             
POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT SINCE MOISTURE COULD GET                  
SOMEWHAT DEEPER BY THAT TIME THERE. WENT WITH GFS POPS FOR                      
WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPED THEM SOME 10 TO 15 POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN             
MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE. PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT I             
TRIMMED BACK POPS SOME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE            
HEDGING TOWARD THE EURO MODEL THAT I MENTIONED ABOVE. /BB/                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WAS BEING            
REPORTED AT KTVR THIS MORNING...BUT ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR                 
CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUN. SOME SPOTTY MVFR            
CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE 10-13Z               
SUNDAY. /22/                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       80  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   2                                  
MERIDIAN      78  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     81  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   6                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  53  81  54 /   0   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       79  55  79  59 /   0   0   0   3                                  
GREENVILLE    80  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   9                                  
GREENWOOD     80  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   8                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM:22                                                                   
LONG TERM: 50                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HANDFUL               
OF AWOS/ASOS STATIONS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AS OF PUBLISHING                
TIME BUT EXPECT MORE SITES TO REACH CRITERIA LATE THIS                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPIRATION TIME ON WIND ADVISORY AT               
7 PM MAY BE A FEW HOURS TOO EARLY...HOWEVER WILL JUST KEEP IT AS                
IS AND IF OBS ARE EXCEEDING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...NEXT SHIFT CAN              
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE HEADLINE.                                              
FOCUS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE COLD CORE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER             
FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT WILL MOVE NEWD OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE OVER                
THE TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SFC               
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTERED OVR SERN CO WITH STRONG              
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
EXTENDING NEWD FM THE SFC LOW THRU FAR SWRN NEB AND INTO NCTNRL NEB             
AND CNTRL SD. MID TO UPPER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS COVER MUCH OF THE                  
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS FAR EAST AS WRN IA. CONVECTION              
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                    
EVENING AND ALSO ALONG THE NEWD EXTENDING BOUNDARY...ONCE STRONG                
CAP EVIDENT ON LBF 18Z SOUNDING WEAKENS. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES                 
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TO KEEP                      
CONVECTION ONGOING AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EWD. QUESTION REMAINS AT HOW              
FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL REACH IF IT INDEED BOWS OUT AS FORECAST. SREF      
SPAGHETTI PLOTS AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING                    
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SPREADS INTO ERN NEB LATE TONIGHT. NOT                      
EXPECTING ANY SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY SOME REMNANT                     
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PASSING ON THROUGH.                                  
BY 12Z SUN...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG            
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN SECTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY VERTICALLY STACKED       
AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NWRN KS WITH 500MB COLD CORE LOW LAGGING                
SLIGHTLY BEHIND. 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONCEPTUAL              
MODEL AND HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO IT. SEVERE WEATHER                      
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FROM BASICALLY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS MUCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE                 
MORNING HOURS...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND       
BULK SHEER VALUES FORECAST AROUND 40-50KTS. ALSO...WITH -20C                    
500MB LOW CORE SLIDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY AFTERNOON...CANNOT               
RULE OUT MINI SUPERCELL EVENT FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON              
HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS               
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NRN IA BY 03Z.                                                
MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SHORTWAVE                       
RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE AREA. UPSTREAM...LEE             
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS               
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS KANSAS              
AND INTO SRN NEB LATE IN THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A                
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP FEED ELEVATED CONVECTION                
ACROSS KANSAS AND SPREAD IT NWD AS 850MB FRONT SLIDES NWD INTO NEB              
OVERNIGHT. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WL MOVE INTO WRN KS LATE MONDAY               
NIGHT AND ACROSS KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY LEAVING 850MB                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BISECT THE AREA THRU TUESDAY. SFC FNT ALSO                  
NUDGES INTO FAR SERN CORNER OF NEB ON TUESDAY. EXPECT CONVECTION                
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE               
LOW AND SO HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO JUST RAIN SHOWERS AS REGION                
LIES IN DEFORMATION AREA. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES COMING TO A CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE            
A MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY LATE NEXT FRIDAY OR                   
SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE POP IN FOR THIS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-          
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090.                               
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
322 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION LIFTING NWD ACROSS NORTHERN                      
NEBRASKA HAD WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS NWRN CWA EARLY THIS                    
MORNING WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE N OF THE CWA BY 12Z. THUS              
WILL RUN A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING ACTIVITY               
AT 07Z WAS 60 KTS PLUS ON AVAILABLE NEBRASKA PROFILERS...ALTHOUGH               
WINDS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN                
BY THIS EVENING. SINCE 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT                    
STRONGER THAN YDA...WHICH SAW A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVSRY                 
CRITERIA...STRONG MIXING AGAIN TODAY SHOULD BRING EVEN STRONGER                 
WINDS. THUS...ISSUED A WIND ADVSRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL BUT FAR               
SERN ZONES WHERE WINDS WERE JUST A BIT LIGHTER TILL 00Z. WITH LOW               
LVL JET CRANKING UP AGAIN TNGT...ADVSRY MAY NEED EXTENDING A BIT                
INTO THE EVENING IF SFC DOESN/T COOL ENOUGH PROVIDING A WEAK                    
INVERSION. ALSO RAISED MOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MILD START               
AND BASED HOW WARM IT GOT YDA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO AGAIN FIRE                  
THIS AFTN NEAR DRY-LINE WRN NEBRASKA WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO                  
SHIFT FARTHER EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS SPREAD LIKELYS OVER                  
WRN 2/3RDS IN 06Z-12Z PD. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED OR MIXED LAYER                 
CAPE MODEST/WEAK BY 12Z SUN...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG AND                  
UPPER DYNAMICS DECENT AS UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS WRN KS               
BY THEN. THUS SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY               
MORNING WRN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER EAST SUNDAY MORNING.                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW STARTING TO TURN EWD NEAR                  
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS OF 08Z...PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN 00Z GFS               
BASED ON LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION. HOW FAST UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT                
STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN A BIT                  
SLOWER THAN AMERICAN MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A                     
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH COULD ALLOW READINGS SUNDAY TO                 
REACH OR EXCEED 70 AS FAR NW A LNK TO OMA LINE WITH STRONG TO                   
SEVERE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING...IF IT EVEN SUBSIDES...IN THE AFTN              
NEAR AND EAST OF THE MO RIVER. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EWD                 
THOUGH BY EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN THROUGH MON AFTN.              
DID INCREASE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS                 
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH NEXT UPPER LOW LIFTING A WARM                
FRONT TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN ZONES. NOTICED 00Z ECMWF AND                 
GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND IF                
THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED LOWERING/DROPPED IN WED               
NGT/THU PD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. MADE LITTLE/NO TEMP CHANGES TO                  
MONDAY AND BEYOND.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-                
     088>090.                                                                   
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHERMOK                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
258 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA IN COMBINATION WITH LATEST            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A STRONG WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST            
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE            
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN              
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE                
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE AREA.  CURRENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE            
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE REGION              
OF COLORADO WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT IS SHOWN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH               
INTO THE DAKOTAS WHICH HAS TRIGGERED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER              
THAT AREA.  MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE ACROSS THE AREA IS A LARGE DECK OF             
STRATUS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN OK ACROSS CENTRAL SECTION OF KANSAS            
AND NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS STRATUS HAS CREATED A DECENT              
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO TONIGHT IS IF ANY CONVECTION               
COULD POTENTIAL FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING              
BOUNDARY.  QUICK EXAMINATION OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE            
SIGN OF DEEPER CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP WITH RUC LOW LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND CIN VALUES STILL INDICATING A STRONG CAP.  AN                   
ISOLATED CHANCE MAY STILL EXIST NORTH OF A BEAVER CITY TO GREELEY               
LINE...BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER REMAINING             
AREA.                                                                           
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE ACROSS THE            
PLAINS AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A DRYLINE EAST INTO THE HIGH               
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH STRONG TO SEVERE                  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS              
WILL LEAVE MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA FAR               
ENOUGH EAST ON SATURDAY THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL                
SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY DISCRETE                  
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY                   
EVENING WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN               
EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND LINE SEGMENT MOTION POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS 40               
KTS...CONCERNED WESTERN HALF OF CWA MIGHT SEE NASTY BOWING SEGMENTS             
WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD            
START TO FADE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM               
AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS MAY SET            
THE STAGE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  NOT                  
CONCERNED WITH FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME                
NUISANCE ISSUES.                                                                
.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL             
BE WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED               
WITH ANOTHER WAVE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING            
OUT OF THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END SOMETIME ON                 
SUNDAY. EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE AN END TO THE                       
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION              
WILL END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ONCE THE            
LOW MOVES OUT THE MOISTURE DECREASES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THAT IT              
WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.               
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY. AS             
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THE SOUTH WINDS              
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. THEN AS THE FIRST WAVES            
START TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS             
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA                 
MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE                  
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA.             
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY                
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FAR               
ENOUGH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH               
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT HARDER TO             
WARM AS MUCH SO HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT BY FRIDAY WITH                    
PRECIPITATION GONE AND SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM             
UP AGAIN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
314 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HOW FAST                
UPPER LOW STILL DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WRN CA COAST EJECTS                     
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN TIMING AND POSSIBLE                 
STORM STRUCTURE. OPERATIONAL MODEL SELECTION SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE              
AS 00Z NAM LACKED CANADIAN UA DATA...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS                   
CRITICAL WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM...AND GFS WAS FASTER THAN OTHER                    
OPERATIONAL MODELS PLUS ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STLT SHOWED LEAD UPPER LOW LIFTING              
INTO NERN MT/NWRN ND VCNTY WITH A SHEARED VORT LOBE EXTDG INTO                  
NERN NEBR. POSSIBLY ASSOCD WITH LOBE...ISOLD CONVECTION HAS                     
DEVELOPED IN CLOUD FIELD NW OF LNK/OMA SINCE 0630Z AIDED BY 850                 
MB THETA E ADVCTN. LATEST RUC SHIFTS THIS ADVCTN NWRD THRU 18Z AS               
850 MB WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. OTHER CLOUD ELEMENTS                 
APPEARED CELLULAR IN NATURE VIA STLT OVR WRN IA AND WSW OF LNK.                 
THUS WILL CARRY SMALL POPS MOST ZONES THIS MORNING. APPEARS CLOUDS              
SHOULD DISPT ENOUGH THIS AFTN TO ALLOW MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB AND                
GUIDANCE/PREV FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. LEFT IN SMALL AFTN POPS FAR                 
SW. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS ACTIVITY THERE...BUT IT WL BE              
ON ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS AS MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING NWRD               
TWD SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY/DRYLINE THAT WL BE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT                 
NWD ACRS WRN NEBRASKA. FOR TNGT...AS LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS AND                
VEERS A BIT OVERNIGHT...850 MB THETA E ADVCTN DVLPS OVR FCST AREA.              
THUS LEFT IN SMALL POPS ALL BUT FAR SERN ZONES EVEN THOUGH NO                   
OTHER APPARENT FOCUS.                                                           
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW                  
APPROACHES. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS/WINDS. FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY KEPT              
FORECAST BASED ON A SLOWER EJECTION OF TROUGH/LOW SINCE IT WAS                  
BACKED BY 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THUS                    
DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SAT NGT ERN ZONES AS SAT AFTN/EVENING                   
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS SHOULD TEND TO MOVE MORE N THAN E.                        
HOWEVER...PCPN CHCS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW OR                   
OPENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. ATTM APPEARS SYSTEM                  
WILL BE COMING ACROSS JUST SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEATING                
ERN ZONES ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT BOTH NEAR TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM               
AND ALONG TRAILING CDFNT.                                                       
MADE LTL CHANGES TO REST OF FORECAST. MONDAY APPEARS DRY IN                     
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LIFT A WARM FRONT                 
INTO SRN ZONES IF LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE RIGHT. THUS IF THAT TREND                
CONTINUES ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME AREAS         
ON TUESDAY. WED/THU ARE DEPENDANT ON WHETHER UPPER LOW CUTS OFF                 
TO OUR S OR LIFTS AND STALLS OVER US. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO                 
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHERMOK                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
232 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH GOING AS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE             
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CORE            
ENTERING CWFA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE                     
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTICALLY AND            
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. LOOK FOR A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN                 
TOWARDS SUNSET ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RESIDUAL              
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS FAR                     
NORTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON DRY LINE ACTION. WILL HOLD SERVE ON               
THE WIND ADVISORY AND LET IT GO THROUGH 8 PM. SIERRA BLANCA AND AN              
OBSERVER HAS ALREADY VERIFIED THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN LINCOLN                  
COUNTY HOWEVER WINDS HAVE ABATED SOMEWHAT THERE. SUSPECT ANOTHER                
BURST WITH THE BL/700MB WIND FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL LET THAT                   
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WILL BE LIMITED. A COUPLE OF OTHER OBSERVATION                
SITES TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO HIT HIGH WIND              
WITH THE FROPA BUT NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE. CONVECTIVE SHOWER                    
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MUDDLE UP ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING                  
SPEEDS. PRETTY MUCH CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POP PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT            
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DYING DOWN BETWEEN 6 TO 8 PM. ALL ACTIVITY            
DISSIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER            
THE DEPARTING LOW ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT.                 
EVENING SHIFT CAN RELOOK AT THAT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH                        
PRECIPITATION ENDS UP FALLING. LASTLY...SEVERE WEATHER MOST PROBABLE            
ACROSS UNION COUNTY AS DRY LINE MIXES EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE             
NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MSLP SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS               
BUT THREAT WILL BE QUICK TO END EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY             
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRUCKS NORTHEASTWARD. WATCH WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST.                               
SUNDAY WILL BE AN IN BETWEEN DAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES               
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR HIGHER                 
CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST AREAS             
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS BOTH PERIODS                      
ACCORDINGLY. ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE                      
ARTIFICIALLY HIGH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.                
BOTH NAM AND GFS PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SYSTEM                
TRACK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED UP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY. DIDNT REALLY ADJUST THE POP OR WX FIELD            
ALL THAT MUCH AS INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD. CERTAINLY SOME DRY              
SLOT CONSIDERATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES A                
PROBLEM FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BOTH DAYS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  30  69  44  60 /   0   0   5  30              
GALLUP..........................  23  66  38  59 /   0   0   0  30              
GRANTS..........................  25  68  36  63 /   0   0   0  20              
GLENWOOD........................  37  78  45  73 /   0   0   0   5              
CHAMA...........................  16  56  33  50 /  20   0   5  30              
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  67  34  63 /   0   0   0  20              
RED RIVER.......................  22  52  34  49 /  20   0   0  20              
TAOS............................  23  65  35  62 /  10   0   0  20              
SANTA FE........................  26  68  35  65 /   5   0   0  10              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  70  41  67 /   0   0   0  10              
ESPANOLA........................  32  73  43  70 /   0   0   0  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  39  73  50  72 /   5   0   0  10              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  40  75  50  73 /   5   0   0  10              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  36  72  47  70 /   5   0   0  10              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  39  74  49  71 /   5   0   0  10              
SOCORRO.........................  41  76  51  76 /   0   0   0  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  32  68  44  68 /   5   0   0  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  34  69  48  69 /   0   0   0  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  38  71  53  73 /   0   0   0   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  39  63  50  63 /   0   0   0   5              
RATON...........................  30  71  37  70 /  10   0   0  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  33  69  41  66 /   0   0   0   5              
ROY.............................  39  72  50  72 /   5   0   0   5              
CLAYTON.........................  40  74  47  77 /  20   0   0   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  43  77  52  79 /   5   0   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  42  78  49  82 /  10   0   0   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  79  49  82 /   5   0   0   5              
CLOVIS..........................  43  78  53  80 /   5   0   0   5              
PORTALES........................  41  79  52  82 /   5   0   0   5              
ROSWELL.........................  44  81  53  84 /   5   0   0   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...            
NMZ004>007-009>013-015-018>021-026.                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES...NMZ016-017.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
120 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /200600Z-210600Z/...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR OR                
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES. FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS                    
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY HEALTHY AND DEWPOINTS HAVE                
TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LGT/VAR WINDS                    
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING                  
AROUND 10KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH              
TO 5KTS OR LESS ONCE AGAIN. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY GOOD FLYING              
WEATHER IS IN STORE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 209 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
TAKING THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NORTH            
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND PUSHING IT EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE              
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BLOCK WILL FLATTEN. WE WILL REMAIN EAST              
OF THE MID LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH               
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. MINOR AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED BY SOME WEAK MID LEVEL                      
IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SFC RIDGE                  
NEARING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE               
WELL /10F/ ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.               
THIS EVENING...THE RUC AND NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF                  
ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z                  
TONIGHT. NAM/RUC RH PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF MID                   
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY IMPACTING OUR                 
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE                       
EVENING...CAN`T SEE THIS WAVE DOING ANYTHING MORE THAN DELAYING                 
THE TRANSITION FROM PCLOUDY TO MCLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
AFTER THIS WAVE DEPARTS...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY                      
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB. MODELS BRING A                   
PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING            
FOR A WONDERFUL DAY. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY WITH A STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GOOD MIXING TO 850 WILL TAP ANY WINDS IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE GRADIENT                   
WON`T BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SO NOTHING MORE THAN 20-25MPH                
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. T850 RANGES FROM +4-6C IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH              
WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE L/MID 60S...AND WE`LL LEAN TOWARDS THE                  
WARMER END BASED ON HOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP WITH              
THE TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS WE WILL FINALLY GET A              
CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE U20S/L30S               
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                                                             
TONIGHT...MODELS DROP THE DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY WITH OVER-LAND                      
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM OBS FROM OUR CANADIAN NEIGHBORS AND                
EVEN THOSE OVER NEW ENGLAND INDICATE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE                
TEENS. THINK THIS STRONG LLEVEL DRYING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                      
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL NICELY                       
TONIGHT...PROBABLY COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL                   
GENERALLY FOLLOW MET GUIDANCE. THESE DRY READINGS...ALONG WITH A                
LITTLE BIT OF WIND SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING A PROBLEM.                        
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. RH                  
PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING IN                 
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY/MSUNNY AND              
WITH T850 BETWEEN 5-6C HIGHS AROUND U60S TO AROUND 70 LOOK GOOD.                
ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING IS AGAIN EXPECTED...WEAKER GRADIENTS WILL                  
LESSEN THE WINDS EVEN MORE...15MPH OR LESS EVEN IN GUSTS. LLEVEL                
RHS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY                   
LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES TAKE MORE OF A TRACK OVER THE LAKES.                    
THIS INCREASED LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS SATURDAY                   
NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY JUST ABOVE                
FREEZING RATHER THAN AT/JUST BELOW.                                             
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY ON                     
SUNDAY AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. ALTHOUGH WELL                 
NORTH OF THE CWA...SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY FILTER IN FROM               
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE DAY WILL STILL TURN OUT MSUNNY. WITH T850              
REACHING 6-7C...U60S/L70S ARE LIKELY FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA.                  
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AS THE CREST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE                 
MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY MILD WEATHER.               
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS.                                        
AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE                
ENOUGH...SO THAT DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN                
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                     
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
BAINBRIDGE AND CONKLIN STILL THE PRIMARY SITES OF CONCERN WITH                  
CONKLIN JUST ABOVE FS AND BAINBRIDGE VERY NEAR IT. RIVERS CONTINUE              
TO BE FED BY SNOWMELT...BUT THIS WILL COME TO AN END SOON. WAVERLY              
ALSO FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO FS TOMORROW. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AS               
THE ARE ATTM...BUT EXPECT RIVERS TO BEGIN TO FALL ESPECIALLY AS WE              
MOVE INTO TOMORROW AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS LOST AND WE SEE AN              
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. AGAIN...ONLY VERY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1007 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY                    
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THE AREA OF STORMS ON CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER                
WHICH SHOWS AN MCV IS QUICKLY SHRINKING IN SIZE AND WEAKENING                   
MORE THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT. HAVE DECREASED PROBABILITY OF STORMS                
TO CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT REGION UNTIL NOON AND MOST OF EAST                
PORTION TIL 3PM.                                                                
TWO SHORTWAVES OF CONCERN: ONE CURRENTLY AT SOUTHWEST CORNER OF                 
ND WHICH IS KEEPING THE REMAINING SHOWERS GOING AHEAD OF IT...AND               
ANOTHER NEAR CO/NE/KS STATE JUNCTION. THE FIRST WILL TARGET                     
NORTHEAST ND AND THE LATTER FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST (INTO RED RIVER              
VALLEY). AN EARLY EXTRAPOLATIVE APPROACH PLACES THE SHORTWAVES                  
INTO THE CWA MUCH LATER THAN RUC INDICATES BUT IS MORE IN LINE                  
WITH CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES. BUT AM NOT                  
SURE OF THE TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD TO DESTABILIZE                
ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ANYWAY.                                               
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GRIDS OR ZONES AND WILL BE KEEPING WATCH                
FOR SIGNATURES IN SATELLITE AND OBS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                
     MORNING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.                                            
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                
     MORNING FOR MNZ003-029.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
350 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...INITIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST SD                    
HAS SLACKENED A BIT BUT ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST                  
ND. THEY ARE MOVING NORTH ON THE NOSE OF 850 MB JET AND BRINGING                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH IT AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.             
HOWEVER THE JET CORE IS ONLY 35-40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO RUC AND AREA              
PROFILERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MUCH                 
EARLY THIS EVENING. RUC SHOWS THE JET STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS BY              
06Z SOUTH OF WAHPETON BUT 850 MB CAPE IS NORTH OF GFK BY THEN.                  
STILL...THIS ABR REPORTED ALMOST A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR                
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND.                
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SAT REMAINS THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE                
MID/UPPER 50S ON SAT AND THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MAY LIMIT               
SURFACE BASED STORMS A BIT. THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED              
WITH 1.25 INCH OR SO OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BUT A TRAINING LINE OF               
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MORE. LEANED ON HPC AND NAM QPF MOST BUT 3 DAY               
QPF ENDED UP BEING SIMILAR TO HPC. NAM PICKED UP ITS PROGRESSION                
TO MATCH GFS WHILE BACKING OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS...SO FAVORED                
NAM OVERALL.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)                                                          
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN PAC OCEAN...AROUND 48N 148W...                  
IS PROGGED TO GENERATE A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL HIT SHORE AROUND                  
SUNDAY IN NRN CA. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL ROCKIES             
AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS MID NEXT WEEK.                                  
CURRENT PROGS SHOW MAIN ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF CWA. WHEREAS PREVIOUS              
RUNS SHOWED A BAND OF H700 FRONTOGENESIS FORCING JUST SOUTH                     
OF THE CWA...THREAT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. THUS               
I REMOVED RAIN SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR LATE MON                 
NIGHT/EARLY TUE.                                                                
NEXT EVENT OF INTEREST IS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHERE                
12Z GFS IS BRINGING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA AND MT/ND.           
LATEST GFS RUN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SFC RIDGE OVR              
ERN MN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVE SHOWS            
UP BEST ON ECMWF H700-H850 RH PROG. ECMWF MOVES WAVE INTO CWA FRIDAY            
MORNING. HPC BLEND SHOWING 70 PERCENT ECMWF SOLUTION...THUS BRING               
PRECIP INTO CWA ON FRI MORNING.                                                 
.AVIATION                                                                       
VFR CONDS EARLY IN TAF AND TWEB PERIODS. HOWEVER...AS MOIST AIR                 
CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH...THREAT OF CONVECTION                
INCREASES. WORST THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF KFAR WHERE SPC HAS ISSUED              
A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH. EXPECT CIGS TO GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE                 
OF TSTMS...AND LOWERING TO 2000 TO 3000 FEET BY MIDNIGHT.                       
NAM12 SHOWING A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM             
SW OF KBIS TO NE OF KDVL...WITH SFC TROF JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS               
BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY...TWEB ROUTE FROM KBIS TO KFAR SHOULD SEE                
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
329 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                     
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WERE PRIMARILY IN REFINING TEMPERATURES.                  
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN              
CONUS...WITH CLOSEST RADAR ECHOES OF NOTE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.               
ANOTHER WARM/DRY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT              
SE...MOVING OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTN. RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS                
THIS AFTN...AND WARM/DRY RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS L/M 80S            
EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR MOST OF CWA...TO AROUND 80 AT IMMEDIATE COAST             
AND OVER EASTERN SHORE.                                                         
EXPECTING SEA BREEZE TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE OVER COASTAL PLAIN THIS               
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN AGAINST IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH VRY LGT SYNOPTIC              
WNDS THIS AFTN. HV MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS             
TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MID TO LT AFTERNOON IVOF                    
ORF/CPK/NCZ102.                                                                 
USED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN...AND TRENDED TOWARDS             
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH LTL/ANY DISCERNIBLE CLOUD COVER            
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NGT.                                        
ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH M/U 80S LOOKING                   
POSSIBLE FOR PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA (L/M 80S AT COAST) WITH                    
ROBUST RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY AFTN.                                              
WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. CLOUDS                  
SLOWLY INCREASE BY MONDAY NGT/ERY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER                 
MAKER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN EXTENDED WAS IN TIMING AND DETERMINING PCPN                
CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                   
STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WL REMAIN NORTH            
OF THE AREA....GENERALLY REMAINING ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND           
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA AND EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VLY. 00Z/APR22               
GFS DOES BRING BACKDOOR FRONTAL BNDRY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAM.             
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT                
THIS SOLN ATTM. FOR NOW...WL PUSH FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR NORTHERN            
COUNTIES...RESULTING IN MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY...AND                    
REMAINING WITHIN WARM SECTOR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WL            
INCREASE CLD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
RIC-WAL AND NORTH FOR TUES NGT/WED. FUTURE SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO                 
ADJUST THIS AS NECESSARY. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT                  
MEAGER AVAILABLE PCPN (PW VALUES REMAIN UNDERWHELMING) AND LACK OF              
ANY VIABLE CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO BOLSTER BELIEF THAT ANY PCPN THAT            
DOES THREATEN THE AREA WL BE LGT AND VERY SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE.              
FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. AGREE WITH GOING FORECAST THAT A             
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD EXIST BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN          
CWA...WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND SCTD SHRAS HOLDING TEMPS BACK               
A BIT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER              
THAN MEX VALUES GIVEN LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY OF LATE.                         
NEXT...AND MORE LKLY PCPN THREAT COMES WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI. LOW PRESSURE WL DEVELOP OVER THE MO VLY BY                 
THU...TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE              
CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA.                      
NONETHELESS...CONTINUING THE GOING CHC (30) POP FOR SHRAS/TSTMS AS              
H5 TROF PUSHES THROUGH ERY FRIDAY INTO FRI AFTN LKS GOOD.                       
DRIER WX MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WK HIGH              
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WL LEAVE FRIDAY NGT AND                  
SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                          
VFR THRU PRD. WNDS BELOW 10 KTS. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLDS XPCTD.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO FLAGS THRU MON AS HIGH PRS MOVES OFFSHORE. WNDS AOB 15 KTS.                  
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL. DATA                     
SUGGESTS OUR TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SPIKE IN SW WNDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
ERLY TUE...BUT WILL HOLD WNDS TO ARND 15 KT ATTM. BKDR FRNT NOW                 
PROGGED TO ENTER NRN HALF OF MARINE AREA LATE TUE...TURNING WNDS                
INTO A E-SE DRCTN TUE NITE. FRNT THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK N AS A               
WRM FRNT WED...RESULTING IN SW WNDS ONCE AGAIN.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOW RH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. UTILIZED RUC/LOCAL WRF MODIFIED SOUNDING               
AND TRENDED RH/DEWPOINT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...GIVEN POOR MODEL                  
PERFORMANCE ON TD OF LATE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH DRYING FUELS...LGT               
WNDS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONSIDERABLY. EVEN               
STILL.. WL AGAIN MENTION DRY COND IN FWF...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON ANY               
STATEMENTS ATTM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MONTEFUSCO                                                         
LONG TERM...MONTEFUSCO                                                          
AVIATION...RUSNAK                                                               
MARINE...RUSNAK                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER...MONTEFUSCO                                                       
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE              
GRT LKS BTWN LARGER SCALE TROFS OVER THE W AND IN THE WRN ATLANTIC.             
CWA DOMINATED BY SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND            
LO PRES TROF STRETCHING FM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MN ON THE ERN FLANK            
OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH 00Z GRB/MPX/APX SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY AND                   
CAPPED...A FEW SHRA/TSRA NOTED OVER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO              
ERN LK SUP WHERE SHRTWV RUC SHOWS MOVING THRU NRN MN/ADJOINING                  
ONTARIO IS INTERACTING WITH H85 WARM FNT ON THE NRN EDGE OF MID LVL             
CAPPING MARKED BY H7 TEMP ARND 2C. SKIES MOCLR TO THE S OF WARM FNT             
DESPITE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG ABV H7 WARM            
NOSE/CAP. MORE WDSPRD CNVCTN HAS BROKEN OUT AS FAR E AS WRN MN ALG              
WARM FNT IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.            
OTHER SHRTWVS ROTATING WITHIN WRN TROF ARE LOCATED OVER SRN                     
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST.                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND DISPOSITION OF ONGOING CNVCTN              
FM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO ERN LK SUP AND FIRE WX ISSUES. FOCUS FOR               
TNGT/MON SHIFTS TO SHRA/TSRA CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW LIFTING            
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.                                                         
FOR EARLY THIS MRNG...RUC SHOWS SHRTWV HELPING TO INITIATE CNVCTN               
ALG H85 WARM FNT MOVING ENE THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. MODEL SHOWS               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND WAD LINGERING OVER ERN             
LK SUP UNTIL ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE SYS IS PROGGED TO MOVE CLOSER TO                
JAMES BAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED             
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD WRN LK SUP BY 12Z. SO                
EXPECT CNVCTN OVER NE LK SUP TO DIMINISH BY FCST ISSUANCE...BUT WL              
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCT TSRA OVER WRN LK SUP THIS MRNG. THIS NEXT               
SHRTWV FCST TO SLIDE NE INTO ONTARIO AS WELL BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF               
DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER SHRTWV FCST TO REACH             
IA BY 00Z MON ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE             
MID LVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED THRU MOST OF THE DAY TO KEEP             
LAND FA DRY EVEN THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WL PERSIST OVER WRN LK SUP ON             
EDGE OF CAP AND CLOSER TO APRCHG COOL FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW            
IN SASKATCHEWAN. BULK OF MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF OVER THE FAR              
WRN ZNS BY 00Z MON JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FNT. CONSIDERING DRY            
NATURE OF LLVLS TO THE SW (MIXING TO H8 ON 00Z MPX SDNG WOULD YIELD             
SFC DWPT ARND 40...DVN SDNG IS EVEN DRIER) AS WELL AS ACYC H85 FLOW             
IN ADVANCE OF FNT...THINK GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AT               
SPITTING OUT PCPN EVEN OVER THE FAR W BEFORE 00Z AND COLD FROPA...              
ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH MODELS PUSH SFC DWPTS INTO THE LOW 50S AT IWD             
BY 00Z. BUT SINCE GOING FCST HAS CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W AFT 21Z AND            
MODELS GENERATE SOME QPF...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS FM CMX-IWD. AS               
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MIXING TO H8-825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD             
SUPPORT HI TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE AWAY FM THE MODERATING                   
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM MPX/DVN SDNGS...MODELS              
LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE AT RETURNING LLVL MSTR AND PUSHING DWPTS AOA 50.            
IF DWPTS ARE 40 E TO 48 W...EXPECT RH TO DROP AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT             
AGAIN. WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY (NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SHOW                 
MIXED LYR WINDS INCRSG TO 25 TO 35 KT)... FIRE WX PARAMETERS WL                 
APRCH CRITICAL LVLS AGAIN TDAY.                                                 
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON FCST OF HANDLING OF SHRTWV IN IA AT               
00Z MON...WITH GFS SHOWING SHRTWV MOVING TO JUST S OF GRB AT 12 MON             
WHILE NAM HOLDS SHRTWV BACK OVER NW IL. WITH SUPPORT FM THE MOST                
CONSISTENT 00Z UKMET (WHICH IS NCEP FVRD MODEL)...WL FOLLOW THE MORE            
SIMILAR GFS SCENARIO. MEANWHILE... GFS/UKMET FCST SHRTWV IN                     
SASKATCHEWAN THIS PAST EVNG TO MOVE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ACCOMPANYING            
SFC COLD FNT MOVING TO ABOUT P53-MNM BY 12Z MON. SINCE THESE SHRTWVS            
ARE FCST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THRU THE NGT...GFS SHOWS TWO STRIPES            
OF HEAVIER PCPN. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OVER THE WRN ZNS DURING THE              
NGT DUE TO MORE SGNFT UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET SUPPORTING ONTARIO             
SHRTWV AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FGEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SFC FNT.               
GFS SHOWS THESE DYNAMICS TENDING TO SHIFT MORE NE DURING THE                    
NGT...SO ITS HEAVIER QPF DOES NOT SPREAD E. THE UKMET ON THE OTHER              
HAND INDICATES THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/FGEN WL SPREAD FARTHER E...SO IT            
DRAGS HEAVIER PCPN INTO THE CNTRL ZNS BY 12Z.  THE GFS ALSO FCSTS AN            
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS THE SCNTRL ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV                   
PASSAGE THRU WI AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE.                 
CONCERNING SVR THREAT...OLD DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAD MUCH OF THE            
W HALF OF THE FA IN SLGT RISK. THINK BEST CHC OF SVR TSRA WOULD BE              
IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FROPA OVER THE             
W WHEN FCST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KT WOULD BE BETTER PHASED WITH              
LOWER SSI FCST IN THE -2C TO -3C RANGE/STEEPER SFC-H8 LAPSE RATES               
THAT WOULD ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC.             
HOWEVER... MODIFIED GFS FCS SDNG FOR IWD AT 00Z FOR SFC T/TD 73/50              
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY GFS YIELDS            
MO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. ALTHOUGH WBZ FCST            
AT A FVRBL 9.5K FT...FCST MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE A                     
DIFFICULT TIME SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL. FCST LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROGGED            
TO DIMINISH SGNFTLY AFT 06Z...SO ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH                 
OVERNGT AS THE FNT PUSHES E. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NEW DAY1                    
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NO LONGER SHOWS THE FA IN THE SLGT RISK.                     
SINCE NCEP INDICATES THE GFS BECOMES TOO FAST ON MON...TENDED TO                
FOLLOW THE UKMET FCST FOR FCST PREPARATION. AS PAIR OF SHRTWVS MOVE             
TO THE E...MODEL FCSTS COLD FROPA AT ERY BY 15Z...WITH LINGERING                
DEEP MSTR/SHARP H85-7 FGEN CLEARING THAT POINT BY 18Z. WL KEEP                  
LINGERING HIER POPS OVER THE E HALF IN THE MRNG WITH POPS TO THE W              
DIMINISHING W-E AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA. SINCE               
UKMET IS SLOW TO LOWER H85 DWPT (SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS)...SUSPECT             
THERE WL BE A GOOD AMT OF SC IN THE AFTN OVER AREAS INLAND FM THE               
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE                 
LATER IN THE DAY...SO EXPECT CLRG OF THE SC LATER WITH LOWERING SUN             
ANGLE. MON WL TURN OUT MUCH COOLER WITH UKMET SHOWING H85 TEMP                  
LOWERING TO 2 TO 4C BY 00Z TUE.                                                 
QUIET AND COOLER WX LOOKS ON TAP MON NGT THRU MOST OF THE REST OF               
THE WEEK AS CNDN HI PRES BLDS FM THE NW TERRITORIES INTO ONTARIO.               
NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD CA LOOKS LIKE IT WL REMAIN WELL TO THE            
S AS IT MOVES E. JUST MINOR CHGS TO MESH BETTER WITH SURROUNDING                
OFFICES MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                     
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
134 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...STRONG...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE WILL MAINTAIN VFR              
CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIN HIGH CIRRUS (DEBRIS FROM                
SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN) WILL                
PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL            
WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE            
THE SURFACE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AWAY FROM             
THE REGION. HOWEVER...STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE                 
WINDS FROM REACHING GROUND LEVEL UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE                
TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW UNITED STATES CURRENTLY WILL TRACK            
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE             
TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SAT APR 21                                      
LATEST RUC AND SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE            
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  TO THE WEST...A BROAD               
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT             
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT LOW NORTH OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG.  DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER ON TODAY ACROSS                
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVE STARTED PUSHING INTO THE AREA             
WITH THE MQT RADAR JUST SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY RETURNS OVER CENTRAL               
LAKE SUPERIOR (EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE) AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF            
LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE            
AXIS.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING REVOLVE               
AROUND THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS...THEN LOW TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.            
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.  HAVE                     
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE                
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING OVERHEAD.  HAVE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE OF A              
SPRINKLE ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY AND THE SOO DUE TO THESE SPOTTY                   
SHOWERS...JUST FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  ONE SHOWER TO THE EAST OF MQT            
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME BEEFIER RETURNS AT 3.5KFT THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO              
REACH THE GROUND DESPITE THE DRY AIR PRESENT (RUC ANALYZED 900-700MB            
RH 25-30 PCT). PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN LATE OVERNIGHT AS            
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS SE SLIDE.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON              
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN KICK IN AND KEEP OUR                       
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS.                  
STILL BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE COLD SPOTS AND AREAS                 
ACROSS NE LOWER (WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LAST) WILL                
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BUT FOR THE REMAINING AREAS...LOWS WILL FALL            
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.                                                   
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT APR 21                                   
A HUDSON BAY HIGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST SO THAT THE                  
RETURN FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING. THE OMEGA BLOCK AT 500 MB IS                    
BREAKING DOWN SO THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT                  
LAKES. TO THE WEST OF THAT, THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE             
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND WIND FOR SUNDAY.                                  
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO PICK UP, BUT WITH THE SFC INVERSION            
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW            
10 MPH. WITH THE STRONG INVERSION AND LOWER SFC WINDS, THE HUMIDITY             
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR WITH THE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW              
HIGH CLOUDS SO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COOL THINGS A BIT, BUT              
IT WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE SOUTH WIND STAYS UP ALL            
NIGHT.                                                                          
SUNDAY...AS THE SUN PEEKS OVER THE HORIZON, THE TEMPERATURES WILL               
BEGIN TO ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SEVERAL LOWER 80S                  
THROWN IN. THE MET AND MAV NUMBERS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN PLN              
AND GLR TO THE LOWER 80S IN GOV, WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE LAKE                   
SHORES. 950 MB WINDS ON BOTH MODELS ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS                  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED            
AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THE AVIATION SITES. FACTORING IN THE 20FT WIND               
LEVEL AND THE 10 MIN AVG OF THE RAWS SITES WOULD EXPECT THAT EVEN IF            
15 MPH ISN`T SUSTAINED, THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 MPH. THIS            
IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE`RE NOT GOING TO JUST MIX THROUGH 950 OR              
850 MB, BUT PROBABLY THROUGH 750 MB LIKE YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP              
KEEP THE SFC RH DOWN AS THE 850 MB RH IS EXPECT TO BE <10% ON THE               
NAM AND <25% ON THE GFS. WITH THE SW FLOW THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES               
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +14C WHICH WHEN MIXED OUT WOULD BRING IN              
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SO, HOWEVER YOU CUT IT, IT            
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE AFTERNOON.                    
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE              
GREAT LAKES IN THE EVENING...AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ROOKIES                 
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXTENDED MODELS BRING THE SYS INTO               
THE WRN LAKES BTW 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...THE UPPER                 
RIDGING PATTERN ALSO BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION...AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND                  
TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE             
WRN LAKES AROUND 12Z MONDAY. 850/500 MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVR              
THE LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER LVL                     
FEATURES. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST            
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER WRN LWR AND EAST            
UPPER WHERE MSTR INCREASES FIRST. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY            
IN THE 50S...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW.              
MONDAY...SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER THE LAKES DURING THE DAY...EXITING            
INTO LAKE HURON AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES OVER             
THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING LATE             
AFTN. 850/500 MB RH QUICKLY BEGINS TO DRY OUT OVER THE WRN LAKES AFT            
18Z MONDAY...DROPPING FROM AROUND 80 PCT IN THE MORNING TO ARND 40              
PCT BY 21Z. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FCST AREA THRU THE                
MORNING. IN THE AFTN...WILL DROP POPS TO CHC OVER THE WRN CWA WHILE             
MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. WILL                 
MENTION DRY CONDS MONDAY NIGHT ACRS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AS SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACRS THE REGION AND UPPER ZONAL FLOW                  
PERSISTS. 850/500 MB RH SHOWING DRYING TO AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT            
INTO TUESDAY. WILL MENTION AFTN HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE              
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND                  
CALMING WINDS...SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.                    
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND 500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE               
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER 850MB AIR WILL FILTER BACK OVER THE              
STATE DURING THE DAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM ARND 10C MONDAY TO             
AROUND +1C TUESDAY AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTN HIGHS IN THE 50S ACRS THE            
FCST AREA. OVERALL WILL MENTION DRY CONDS DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND                
850/500 RH AROUND 40 PCT. HOWEVER EXPECT AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT DUE TO             
850 AND 500 MB COLD POOLS ALOFT AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES.                      
SUBSIDENCE CONDS PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE WILL MENTION DRY             
CONDS INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                           
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC RIDGING AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO               
THURSDAY. WILL MENTION DRY CONDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.            
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES            
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...               
MODEL BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL                   
FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING                
OVER THE SRN ROOKIES WED...AND WILL BEGIN PUSHING NORTH EARLY                   
THURSDAY MOVING TOWARD IND/ILL BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER MODELS DO HANDLE THE               
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO            
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF PUSHES THE SFC FEATURE FASTER TOWARD THE                
EAST COAST. AT UPPER LVLS...MODELS ARE DISORGANIZED WITH THE 500 MB             
TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY...MOVING            
INTO THE ERN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY                  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS BEING BROKEN DOWN TO FAST THURSDAY...WHILE                
MODELS KEEP THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. OVERALL THOUGHT              
IS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF                 
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY               
AFTN. OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE SLOWLY              
BACK INTO THE STATE FRIDAY...SO WILL MENTION DRY CONDS INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                 
SATURDAY...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST                   
AREA...AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES...WHILE AN            
UPPER TOUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS FRIDAY                      
NIGHT...AND INTO THE WRN LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                    
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
       RED FLAG WARNING...ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER...SUNDAY                        
AFTERNOON                 AND EARLY EVENING.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
129 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND REFRESH                 
GRIDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST SHORT TERM...AS BEST                  
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE OVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FAR                  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE                  
TREND OF LATEST RUC 13 AND 4 KM WRF REFLECTIVITY TRENDS SHOW                    
WEAKENING TREND AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND                 
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
REMNANTS OF MORNING CONVECTION HAVE PRETTY MUCH LIFTED OUT OF AREA              
WITH ONE AREA OF REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E TWIN CITIES METRO             
INTO W WI.  THESE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF AREA BY 6 PM.  GOOD              
MIXING IN S MN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.  WILL               
LEAVE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SC MN UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.  MAIN                 
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE IN WC MN WHERE AXIS OF                  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. BY 06Z RATHER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE            
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COMES INTO PLAY PROVIDING A               
GOOD LIFTING MECHANIZM.  CONTINUED TO CARRY A POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN            
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER PUSH            
OF WARM ADVECTION.  STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO               
AREA INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROF WITH PWATS OVER 1.25              
INCH. FEEL THAT MAIN WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL                
PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME HAIL WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED            
STRONG FORCING KEEPING AREA MAINLY CLOUDY.  VERY MILD TEMPERATURES              
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS             
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  LEFT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR SOUTHERN                
AREAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN SHOULD LIMIT              
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION.                                        
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING OR BLUE                          
EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-REDWOOD-                                  
STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
430 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY              
DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT                   
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT                  
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST MONDAY WHILE RIDGING WEST               
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR SE TO S LOW                
LEVEL FLOW AND SERVE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER              
OUR REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS               
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS                
JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. ALSO NOTED WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW MOVING                
OVER SW KANSAS. THIS LOW WILL BE DEFLECTED TO THE NE AS THE UPPER               
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TODAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE             
SEEN STREAMING EAST TOWARD OUR DELTA REGION FROM THE CONVECTION                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO             
OUR AREA AND WILL DO LITTLE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING OUT               
NEAR 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THE TRAILING COLD               
FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA NEAR THE OZARKS.                    
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED IN              
OUR AREA...MODELS CONTINUE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE                 
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING A POSSIBLY A FEW                  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE WEST. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE TRIMMED THIS             
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BUT THE UKMET/GFS/NAM/NGM ALL GENERATE SOME LIGHT            
QPF IN OUR WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AND WL NOT IGNORE. BY MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE LOW TO            
MID 60S WITH PWS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WL                   
ACTUALLY BE STRENGTHENING SOME FROM THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE               
THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS                        
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DAYTIME HEATING WL WEAKEN THE            
EXISTING CAP AND RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW                  
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR             
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER                
MONDAY HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.            
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS AS WELL. IT WILL STILL BE WARM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT              
AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN. /22/                                                   
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)... FORECAST IS A                
LITTLE TRICKIER FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY             
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. PAST FEW FORECASTS WERE CONFIDENT WITH              
ENTIRELY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD WHILE WE WAIT FOR AN ORGANIZED            
SYSTEM TO BRING THE REGION SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY                   
WEDNESDAY. NOW MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE ARKLAMISS COULD SPARK               
SOME SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO) TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.              
MAV/MEX POPS STILL CUT SOME FOR THESE PERIODS OWING TO PROBABLE                 
THERMAL CAPPING ISSUES...BUT A LITTLE PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT                
BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST AR AND                     
NORTHEAST LA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT             
TO BE FRAUGHT WITH BOUTS OF NIGHT TIME LOWER CLOUDS AND DAYTIME                 
CUMULUS...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH               
WARMER WITH LOWS PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 60 TO 65 WITH HIGHS 80 TO               
85. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK DECENT IN THAT REGARD.                              
BY WEDNESDAY A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HEAD                  
TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT            
MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT                    
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALTHOUGH               
THE "QUALITY" OF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. SHOULD STILL            
BE ENOUGH JUICE AROUND TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS (MOST CONCENTRATED WEST) BY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERIC              
FORCING INCREASES. PROGGED VALUES OF WIND SHEAR MEET THRESHOLDS FOR             
ORGANIZING STORMS INTO SEVERE MODES...BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE                
SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE OPTIMUM FOR THE GENERATION OF SEVERE                    
WEATHER. TAME LAPSE RATES WILL EQUATE TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST             
(1000 TO 1500 JOULES) AND SHEAR COULD BE A LITTLE MUCH FOR                      
STRUGGLING UPDRAFTS TO "KEEP UP WITH". THESE "CONS" FOR WIDESPREAD              
SEVERE WEATHER ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW...BUT            
THERE STILL ARE SOME POSSIBILITIES OF INTENSE CONVECTION BEING                  
AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE                    
AREA...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. AS FOR POPS...GUIDANCE CAME            
IN WITH MAINLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
AND I FOUND ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INCREASE 10 TO 15 POINTS IN NORTHWEST            
ZONES WEDNESDAY AND 10 POINTS NEARLY AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                  
EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (WHICH IS                  
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE) WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER             
60S...WHICH IS AGAIN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.                                      
ANNOYING MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST             
GFS RUN HAS TRENDED COMPLETELY TO THE PREVIOUS EURO IDEA OF A STRONG            
FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE EURO MODEL HAS               
BACKED OFF FROM THIS IDEA SOME. THE TREND OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS             
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ERRATIC GFS...SO I HEDGED OUR FORECAST            
TOWARD THE FORMER MODEL. THAT HEDGING BASICALLY ENTAILS GOING WARMER            
THAN MEX GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE THE FRONT WILL            
LIKELY HANG UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOWS TO               
DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR MOST LOCALES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT               
THEN TREND SLOWLY BACK UPWARDS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT                    
MEANDERS BACK NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 70S NORTHERN                
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S                 
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
MODELS ARE REALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO                            
ANOTHER...WEAKER...DISTURBANCE THAT MAY SLOWLY HEAD IN OUR DIRECTION            
NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL            
BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN GFS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN             
SOME WITH THIS RUN IN TERMS OF POPS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT            
OF NEXT WEEKEND`S FORECAST FOR NOW. /BB/                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS 3-5SM                
WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 14Z THIS                  
MORNING. WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT             
IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS ARE                  
EXPECTED IN THE DELTA TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL                
AFTER 15Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SW TONIGHT REACHING MOST OF THE WESTERN            
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW                
500FT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MEI AND GTR WHERE CEILINGS AROUND 1KFT            
CAN BE EXPECTED. /22/                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       81  60  79  63 /   0   5   7   6                                  
MERIDIAN      80  57  80  60 /   0   5   6   6                                  
VICKSBURG     81  62  79  63 /   0   7  15   8                                  
HATTIESBURG   80  59  81  63 /   0   4   8   4                                  
NATCHEZ       80  62  79  65 /   0   5  15   7                                  
GREENVILLE    81  62  79  65 /   0  12  15  12                                  
GREENWOOD     80  61  79  64 /   0   8  15  12                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM:22                                                                   
LONG TERM: 50                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
325 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED QUIET... GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE... DRY AND               
WARM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING OVERHEAD. APART FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN              
THE 80-84 RANGE TODAY... OF NOTE WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL DOWN THROUGH THE            
30S THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLE LOWER. SEE FIRE WEATHER                      
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 46-51...              
BUT OUTLYING RURAL AREAS MAY SEE COOLER READINGS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON... INTRODUCING                   
STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND                  
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS MORNING`S MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS             
TROUGH HELPS TAMP DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... A BIT MORE PROFOUND ON THE NAM THAN THE GFS.            
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO OUR WSW NOSES TOWARD WESTERN NC... AND               
MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ZIPPING ACROSS VA MONDAY                   
NIGHT... HOWEVER THE WESTERLY-SHIFTING 850 MB WINDS SHOULD LIMIT                
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE LIFT IS TO OUR                   
NORTH... SO WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT INCREASING            
CLOUDS NW TO SE. HIGHS 80-84 MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY LOWS 53-56. THEN             
ON TUESDAY... THE FRONT BECOMES W-E ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE IN THE               
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH... ABOUT 150% OF              
NORMAL... AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING OVER 500 J/KG            
FAVORS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING            
DESPITE A WARM POCKET IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGHS 80-83... WITH LOWS               
TUESDAY NIGHT 55-60 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR              
EVENING STORM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT             
THE GFS/ECMWF ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE TAIL               
END OF ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DRAGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.               
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH... ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. THIS WAVE               
DAMPENS AS IT HEADS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NC             
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND REALLY LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH                     
FRIDAY... SO MUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS... WHICH REMAIN ABOVE                
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... SHOW NO RESPONSE THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE            
SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT WANES CONSIDERABLY... SO QPF MAY BE SORELY               
LIMITED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS... BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THEREAFTER WITH THE              
CONSISTENT GFS SHOWING A DRY COLUMN AND STABILIZING MID LEVELS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE UPPER               
70S TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.             
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH MORNING. -GIH                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...RAPID EVENING COOLING OVER               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AT            
THE TIME...RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-TO-IFR FOG AT KFAY AND            
KRWI.  EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS                 
HIGHER...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO            
RESULT IN A LIGHT...BUT OBSERVED...WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AROUND             
06Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ROSE AT KRWI.  DEW POINTS ARE               
HIGHEST TOWARD THE EAST AND HAVE PROVIDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
MVFR...LIGHT FOG AT KRWI...BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.             
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN                
800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL            
MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI             
VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.  THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A            
LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH                 
LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH            
SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY AND RETURNING            
TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED FIRES BURNING IN              
HARNETT... CUMBERLAND... AND HOKE COUNTIES... AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES PLUMMETED TO 16-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON... MUCH LOWER THAN              
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED. WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY               
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY                
WHEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE... WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR               
MASS... ANOTHER STEEP DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED              
TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS                    
GUIDANCE VALUES... CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS ONE GETS WHEN THE LOWEST 100            
MB ON THE MORNING RUC SOUNDING IS MIXED. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD             
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RECOVERY INTO THE              
30-40% RANGE TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FIRE                 
CONCERN WITH W TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND FAIRLY             
LIGHT ALOFT... GIVEN THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE DOWN TO             
ABOUT 3-5%... THESE DRY RH VALUES WILL NOT HELP THIS SITUATION.                 
EXPECT MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY UP TO 8000 FT. -GIH/DJF                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
230 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL/FLOOD HEADLINES AND             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD SO WILL USE BLEND FOR             
FORECAST.                                                                       
CURRENT WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT SE HALF OF             
FA SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SD. RUC AND GFS WEAKEN AND SHIFT LOW LEVEL            
JET FLOW MORE WESTERLY AND WARM ADVECTION ALSO SHIFTS EAST SO DO NOT            
EXPECT ANY WEST/NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF CURRENT PCPN BAND. WILL                  
MONITOR FOR T TRENDS AND LIKELY MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OVER FAR EAST                
DURING AM. WITH THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE UNDER CONVECTION AT             
> 2.5 INCHES...CONVECTION WEAKENING UPSTREAM AND ABOVE TRENDS FEEL              
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL               
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO CANCEL ONGOING WATCH. FOR REMAINDER OF FA COLUMN             
DRIES TODAY REFLECTED BY CLEARING OVER CENTRAL WESTERN ND. THERE IS             
AN AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SASK HOWEVER TIMING WOULD NOT BRING IT IN              
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SOLAR                   
SOMEWHAT BUT WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TOWARDS WARMER NAM/NGM                     
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS GFS SHOWING MORE CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED.               
FARTHER EAST MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SO COOLER GUIDANCE ACCEPTED.             
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AS REGION COMES UNDER                       
INCREASINGLY SPLIT MID LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION SHUTS DOWN MONDAY             
HOWEVER WITH COOLER COLUMN AND INTEGRATED RH FIELDS INDICATING SOME             
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO NUMERICAL                       
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AS SOUTHERN                  
STREAM UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER FAR SOUTH              
CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL             
TROUGH PASSAGE.                                                                 
NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST LATE IN WORK WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN POP                   
MENTION FOR THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN WARMING COLUMN SHOULD                 
BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS WITHIN CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM              
FAR SE ND INTO WESTERN MN SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS PCPN BAND                 
SHIFTS EAST. REMAINDER OF FA SHOULD BE VFR TODAY WITH SOME ISOLD                
MORNING BR ON BACK EDGE OF CURRENT PCPN SHIELD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
330 AM PDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST               
CALIFORNIA TODAY THUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS              
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION                      
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EARLY                     
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
06Z NAM AND RUC MODEL DATA INDICATES RAPID DRYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON          
ALONG THE COAST THUS EXPECTING CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF             
DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THIS            
MORNING MAY BE THE CABOOSE OF THIS WINTER/SPRING`S RAIN TRAIN...AS              
LONG TERM FORECAST MODELS DEPICT A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN                
SHAPING AS WE HEAD INTO MAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER            
THE WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE PACNW LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO                
ONLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE ORCA BORDER OR POSSIBLE                       
DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD             
IN OVER THE WEST ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH 583 DM 500 MB            
HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY NEXT SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST THIS             
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING                   
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY               
VFR ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR EARLY              
THIS MORNING AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING              
SKIES CAN BE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  MAB                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THIS                     
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THUS            
THE GOING PACKAGE WILL REFLECT RELATIVELY SUBDUED CONDITIONS WITH NO            
ADVISORIES.  LONGER PERIOD W SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY               
MONDAY WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLY WARRANTING SMALL                   
CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.  MAB                                                  
NOTE...CDIP BUOY 46212 REMAINS OUT OF COMMISSION WITH NO ESTIMATED              
DATE OF REDEPLOYMENT. MAB                                                       
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
958 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOW RIDGING OVER                
THE REGION WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER                
THE CENTRAL PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY LIFTING NEWD. AT SFC...HIGH                
PRES HAS SHIFTED SE WITH A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE S HALF OF              
ZONES SO WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY OUT              
OF THE E AND SE. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY                 
SINCE YESTERDAY AND A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LITTLE                  
LOWER AROUND 850 MB. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION              
TO GENERATE A HEALTHY CU FIELD LATER IN THE DAY.                                
AS FAR AS THE WILD FIRE IN WARE COUNTY...SMOKE PLUME THIS MORNING               
IS ORIENTED SW-NE PER VIS IMAGERY PRESUMABLY DUE TO BACKED FLOW                 
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPED. DEEPER ELY FLOW TODAY AS                 
NOTED IN SOUNDING AND SLOW VEERING OF WINDS WILL ADVECT THE SMOKE               
TO THE W AND THEN NW. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND                    
WINDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS                  
FROM MID 70S COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BENIGN WX PATTERN AND SCT                
CU MAINLY AT NE FL TAF SITES. BRIEF CIGS POSSIBLE DUE SHOULD BE                 
VFR ALL DAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BASED ON BUOY REPORTS AND GUIDANCE WILL LET THE ADVISORY              
EXPIRE AT OR BEFORE 11 AM. SEAS FROM 41012 ARE AROUND 5 FT AND 3-4              
FT IN OUR SE GA WATERS. MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN SCEC IN NEAR SHORE             
WATERS AND GO WITH 3-5 FT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...A CHALLENGING FIRE WX FORECAST AGAIN WITH MARGINAL              
RED FLAG FOR FL ZONES. BASED ON RECOMPUTED RH VALUES...RED FLAG                 
WARNING IN OUR FL ZONES COULD BE EXPANDED BUT AM HESITANT TO DO                 
THIS BASED ON YESTERDAY`S EVENT WHERE DEWPOINTS DID NOT DROP AS                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY                
OVER SE GA. BASED ON COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND MOS                    
GUIDANCE SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE TO GET 4 HOURS LOW RH DURATION IN A                
FEW SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THEREFORE WILL         
LIKELY ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING BEFORE NOON.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  81  49  83  52 /   0   0   0  10                                           
SSI  73  60  75  61 /   0   0   0   0                                           
JAX  77  52  81  54 /   0   0   0  10                                           
SGJ  75  57  78  59 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GNV  81  50  84  54 /   0   0   0  10                                           
OCF  82  50  83  53 /   0   0   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-            
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.                         
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     APPLING-BACON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS.                                           
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS               
     MORNING FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM             
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/MCALLISTER                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER TOPEKA KS                                                      
1008 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS                
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AT MID MORNING. WINDS HAVE                  
INCREASED RAPIDLY IN THIS AREA AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND                  
ADVISORY WEST TO ABILENE AND NORTHEAST TO HOLTON FOR TODAY.                     
THE UPPER LOW WAS NEAR KHLC WITH DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL                
KANSAS. THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HAYS THIS MORNING AND NEW RUC MOVES            
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY LINE                
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH                
BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AS UPPER LOW MOVE                    
NORTHEAST AND ERODES MID LEVEL CAP. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE              
NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.              
WE WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z RAOB BALLOON TODAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO. A DRY INTRUSION AT 850-600MB WAS                    
PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KS. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE SLOWLY ADVANCE                
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS.                                                    
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS LIFT THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN              
NE AND WESTERN IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE              
THE CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS                 
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN              
KS THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE GET SOME INSOLATION THIS                               
AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING WILL CAUSE THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE              
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN                 
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO CAP THUS                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON               
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                   
DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                    
SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO ROTATE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY              
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE                
HAIL. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN SOUTH TO              
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED                  
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY CAUSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT             
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES             
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT            
ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IF            
WE HOLD ON TO THE CLOUD COVER THE INSTABILITY WILL BE REDUCED WHICH             
COULD KEEP MANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATES SHOULD              
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE AFTERNOON                 
SUNSHINE. 850MB WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE FORECASTED TO             
BE 40 TO 45 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. IF SKIES CLEAR THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO 850MB AND THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR PARCEL             
WILL MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY SURFACE            
WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TO INCREASE AT OR                
ABOVE 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE             
I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                    
HERINGTON TO ALMA TO TOPEKA TO OSKALOOSA LINE.                                  
THIS EVENING THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE                       
CWA...BRINGING AN END TO ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. I KEPT 20 POPS               
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR               
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND              
DECREASE IN SPEED BELOW 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP              
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
WE`LL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ON MONDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR            
ADVECTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID             
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                                    
THE NEXT 5H TROUGH LOOKS VERY INTENSE OFF THE OR AND CA COAST.                  
THIS 5H TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON                
MONDAY. A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO               
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DEEPER              
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO                  
WESTERN KS. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING              
MOIST AXIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS               
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                           
ON TUESDAY THE INTENSE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE                   
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWARD INTO              
NORTH TEXAS. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING                
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC                      
FRONT/DRYLINE. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE SCATTERED             
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS/SQUALL                
LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.               
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WHEN THEY MOVE                
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING                  
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS               
MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH              
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.                                            
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE             
CWA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE                  
COOLER WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...ALSO COLDER AIR            
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE PACIFIC                
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING WITH                
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S....WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.                                                   
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON                          
THURSDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 60S. FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER AS A 5H RIDGE MOVES EAST                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID              
70S                                                                             
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARDS            
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA. THE CURRENT EXTENDED RANGE               
FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH              
700 PM CDT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO              
HOLTON LINE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
639 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE                     
TERMINALS WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 080 TO 100 RANGE. KHYS MAY                 
SEE A PERIOD OF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY TODAY,                      
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. THE MAIN STORY             
WILL BE THE WIND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS               
THIS MORNING MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDS                 
WILL VEER AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND WILL              
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME                  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS END ACROSS SOUTHWEST          
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY           
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                                                            
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE           
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WAS             
LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE              
MCS THAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE SEVERE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE                 
EVENING HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNDER THE                   
UPPER SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF STORMS WAS PIVOTING OUT INTO WEST                    
CENTRAL KANSAS.                                                                 
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST                  
THIS MORNING BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW               
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A TIME...SIMILAR              
TO WHAT IS FORECAST BY THE RUC. HAVE REORIENTED POPS IN THAT AREA               
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. AFTER THAT TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE                   
LOWER LEVELS MIXING OUT TO AROUND 700 MB WITH A SMALL POSITIVE                  
AREA. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD               
POOL ALOFT MOVES OUT. DOUBT IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT                    
PRECIP WITH THESE SHOWERS SO THE SILENT POPS IN PLACE OUGHT TO                  
HANDLE IT.                                                                      
ON MONDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF                
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH                  
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                
MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS              
BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS                    
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON                 
EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE, THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES              
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE            
CWA WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING. HAVE                 
REORIENTED POPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS.                
THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW               
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IT.                                                        
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF              
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO AFFECT               
THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE               
FROM THE UKMET/GFS, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS             
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN KS ON TUESDAY.               
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS              
DURING THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF IT OVER MAINLY            
MY EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL             
MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF MY CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE WRAP               
AROUND PRECIP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN                 
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER              
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END              
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM WESTERN KS. DID NOT PULL             
POPS COMPLETELY AS THE UKMET STILL HAS THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH                 
CENTRAL KS ON WEDNESDAY. THE POP/WX GRIDS WERE TWEAKED TO FOLLOW                
ALONG WITH THE FORECAST REASONING.                                              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK            
BUT THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ALL KEEP THE                  
SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND NORTH OF KANSAS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER            
FOR MY CWA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF US ON FRIDAY AND ALL THE                 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WILL THEREFORE BACK OFF            
TO SILENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.                                              
ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.             
I TRENDED COOLER IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE COOL AIR ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. ON WEDNESDAY, 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT              
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S OVER THE EAST AND 60S IN THE WEST WITH COOL               
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED FOLLOWING THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  72  47  74  55 /  10   0  30  50                                           
GCK  72  45  74  54 /  10   0  30  40                                           
EHA  74  44  77  54 /  10   0  20  30                                           
LBL  74  46  76  56 /   0   0  30  40                                           
HYS  69  45  72  55 /  30   0  30  50                                           
P28  74  51  76  60 /  10   0  40  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/27/27                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1059 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG              
SFC-850MB THETA-E AXIS...AND ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W AR NWD INTO MO TO THE PARENT CLOSED LOW                 
NOW ENTERING E NE. BOTH THE NEW RUC AND 12Z NAM INITILIZED TOO FAR              
W WITH THESE FEATURES...THUS HAVE SPED UP POPS FOR SW AR AND                    
REMOVED AFTERNOON MENTION. DID UP POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE FAR N              
SW AR COUNTIES PER RADAR TRENDS...AND ASSUMPTION THAT TROUGH AXIS               
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PARENT LOW.               
PLENTIFUL SFC-850MB MOISTURE NOTED ALONG THE S EXTENT OF THE                    
THETA-E RIDGE OVER E TX/W LA...WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH                        
ADDITIONAL GULF INFLOW...BUT MAY GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY MID/LATE                  
AFTERNOON. ALREADY NEARING LAKE WIND ADV. CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN               
E TX...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING MAY LIMIT                          
MIXING/POTENTIAL TO ONLY A SMALL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                    
OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS IN FORECAST MAX TEMPS               
BASED ON 15Z OBS...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.                                   
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT             
TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT BY 18Z. VSBYS...RESTRICTED BY HAZE IN THE            
3 TO 5 MILE RANGE IN MANY AREAS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO P6SM AS BRISK              
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS MIX AIR FROM ALOFT. ISOLATED TSTMS                
WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND            
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONLY TERMINALS TO HAVE ANY SHOWER OR TSTM                   
ACTIVITY WITIN 25 MILES AFT 18Z TAF ISSUE WOULD BE TXK AND ELD...               
AND MAYBE SHV...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION.                                  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...BUT LOOK            
FOR A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 23/07Z AND                 
OCCASIONAL BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 23/10Z AND 23/14Z.                  
TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS...WILL BE               
LFK. SHV MAY REPEAT IFR CIGS.  CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR AFT 23/16Z.               
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 12 TO 16 KT SUSTAINED                     
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY 23/01Z.              
WINDS NOT AS STRONG MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED. /14/         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  82  63  84  65 /  10  10  10  20                                           
MLU  81  61  82  64 /   0   0  10  10                                           
DEQ  78  59  82  63 /  20  20  10  20                                           
TXK  79  64  81  66 /  20  20  10  20                                           
ELD  81  61  82  63 /  10  10  10  20                                           
TYR  80  64  81  66 /  10  10  10  20                                           
GGG  81  63  82  66 /  10  10  10  20                                           
LFK  81  64  83  67 /   0  10  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/14                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
FEW UPDATES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE HI PRES IN                   
PLACE THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ANOTHER QUIET WARM SPRING DAY                 
TODAY. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT SO SURE DW PTS                
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY TODAY AS YESTERDAY IN SW FLOW. KEPT DW               
PTS ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE THRU THIS EVENING. ZFPAKQ ALREADY OUT.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                      
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WERE PRIMARILY IN REFINING TEMPERATURES.                  
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN              
CONUS...WITH CLOSEST RADAR ECHOES OF NOTE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.               
ANOTHER WARM/DRY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT              
SE...MOVING OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTN. RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS                
THIS AFTN...AND WARM/DRY RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS L/M 80S            
EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR MOST OF CWA...TO AROUND 80 AT IMMEDIATE COAST             
AND OVER EASTERN SHORE.                                                         
EXPECTING SEA BREEZE TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE OVER COASTAL PLAIN THIS               
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN AGAINST IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH VRY LGT SYNOPTIC              
WNDS THIS AFTN. HV MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS             
TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MID TO LT AFTERNOON IVOF                    
ORF/CPK/NCZ102.                                                                 
USED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN...AND TRENDED TOWARDS             
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH LTL/ANY DISCERNIBLE CLOUD COVER            
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NGT.                                        
ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH M/U 80S LOOKING                   
POSSIBLE FOR PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA (L/M 80S AT COAST) WITH                    
ROBUST RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY AFTN.                                              
WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. CLOUDS                  
SLOWLY INCREASE BY MONDAY NGT/ERY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER                 
MAKER.                                                                          
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN EXTENDED WAS IN TIMING AND DETERMINING PCPN                
CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                   
STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WL REMAIN NORTH            
OF THE AREA....GENERALLY REMAINING ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND           
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA AND EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VLY. 00Z/APR22               
GFS DOES BRING BACKDOOR FRONTAL BNDRY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAM.             
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT                
THIS SOLN ATTM. FOR NOW...WL PUSH FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR NORTHERN            
COUNTIES...RESULTING IN MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY...AND                    
REMAINING WITHIN WARM SECTOR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WL            
INCREASE CLD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
RIC-WAL AND NORTH FOR TUES NGT/WED. FUTURE SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO                 
ADJUST THIS AS NECESSARY. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT                  
MEAGER AVAILABLE PCPN (PW VALUES REMAIN UNDERWHELMING) AND LACK OF              
ANY VIABLE CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO BOLSTER BELIEF THAT ANY PCPN THAT            
DOES THREATEN THE AREA WL BE LGT AND VERY SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE.              
FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. AGREE WITH GOING FORECAST THAT A             
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD EXIST BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN          
CWA...WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND SCTD SHRAS HOLDING TEMPS BACK               
A BIT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER              
THAN MEX VALUES GIVEN LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY OF LATE.                         
NEXT...AND MORE LKLY PCPN THREAT COMES WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI. LOW PRESSURE WL DEVELOP OVER THE MO VLY BY                 
THU...TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE              
CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA.                      
NONETHELESS...CONTINUING THE GOING CHC (30) POP FOR SHRAS/TSTMS AS              
H5 TROF PUSHES THROUGH ERY FRIDAY INTO FRI AFTN LKS GOOD.                       
DRIER WX MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WK HIGH              
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WL LEAVE FRIDAY NGT AND                  
SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
VFR THRU PRD. WNDS BELOW 10 KTS. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLDS XPCTD.                    
MARINE...                                                                       
NO FLAGS THRU MON AS HIGH PRS MOVES OFFSHORE. WNDS AOB 15 KTS.                  
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL. DATA                     
SUGGESTS OUR TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SPIKE IN SW WNDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
ERLY TUE...BUT WILL HOLD WNDS TO ARND 15 KT ATTM. BKDR FRNT NOW                 
PROGGED TO ENTER NRN HALF OF MARINE AREA LATE TUE...TURNING WNDS                
INTO A E-SE DRCTN TUE NITE. FRNT THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK N AS A               
WRM FRNT WED...RESULTING IN SW WNDS ONCE AGAIN.                                 
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
LOW RH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. UTILIZED RUC/LOCAL WRF MODIFIED SOUNDING               
AND TRENDED RH/DEWPOINT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...GIVEN POOR MODEL                  
PERFORMANCE ON TD OF LATE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH DRYING FUELS...LGT               
WNDS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONSIDERABLY. EVEN               
STILL.. WL AGAIN MENTION DRY COND IN FWF...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON ANY               
STATEMENTS ATTM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMF                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1119 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAD TO UPDATE ONCE AGAIN TO INCREASE TEMPS EVEN HIGHER. AT 11                   
AM...READINGS AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND                  
LOWER 70S...ALREADY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS/MAV GUIDANCE. IN                    
CREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER              
70S THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT 60S                
WILL PREVAIL.                                                                   
THIS INCREASED HEATING AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THIS                 
MORNING WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT               
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODEL                         
CAPE/INSTABILITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO WARMER SFC TEMPS                
THAN FCST...STALLED FRONT...AND POOR HANDLING OF YESTERDAY AND                  
LAST NIGHTS DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT RUC/NAM ARE UNDERESTIMATING                    
INSTABILITY/CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINT                         
DEPRESSIONS IN NW WIS ARE INCREASING AND RANGE 20 TO 25 DEGREE                  
SPREADS. ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL                
BE THE MAIN THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPS...AND MORNING POPS TODAY.                   
CURRENT ASOS/RAWS OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC CYCLONE              
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A NEWRD EXTENDING FRONT POSITIONED                 
THROUGH SW MN...NE INTO NC MN. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CLOUD                
DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FOUND AHEAD OF IT. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM               
NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA TODAY. INCREASED        
MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES IN WI ZONES WHERE THEY WILL SEE                   
PLENTY OF SUN BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. TEMPS AT 9 AM              
IN NW WIS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.                                   
ALTHOUGH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DEFINED BY THE SPC WAS SHIFTED                    
SOUTH AND OUT OF THE DLH CWA...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND CAN STILL                  
EXPECT TO SEE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A FEW WILL                 
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. EARLY MORNING ACCUS SEEN NW                
OF DULUTH IMPLIES THERE IS INSTABILITY TO TAP LATER TODAY AS THE                
FRONT APPROACHES.                                                               
ATTM...THE FAVORED TIME FRAME AND LOCATION FOR STORM                            
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF               
THE SFC FRONT. A STRONG SW MEAN WIND WILL RESULT IN NE TRACKING                 
STORMS...ALL SHIFTING TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE TSTMS                
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING              
INTO HEAVY RAIN IN NW WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA CONTINUE                
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER               
THERE IS MORE RAIN APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES              
THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE                     
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN                   
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND IN                 
TURN INCREASED SENSIBLE HEATING WHICH SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE               
ATMOSPHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING              
TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM               
100 TO 200 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION IS NOT SIGNIFICANT BY ANY                    
MEANS...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INITIATED                
BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY              
AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE LARGE SCALE                  
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS            
THE MIDWEST.                                                                    
THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OVER NWRN WI BY EARLY THIS                        
EVENING...THEN EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE               
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND COOLING FROM THE                                  
PRECIP...INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY                             
TONIGHT...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE                 
WEATHER. BY MONDAY MORNING...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER               
ACROSS NWRN WI AS THE FORCING MOVES WELL TO THE EAST...AND HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE                
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS              
FOR THE NORTHLAND.                                                              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  73  41  57  36 /  60  60  10  10                                           
INL  61  36  56  30 /  50  10  10  10                                           
BRD  71  41  60  37 /  70  50  10  10                                           
HYR  76  46  62  35 /  40  70  20  10                                           
ASX  74  44  57  35 /  50  70  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
935 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE              
SC AND WESTERN NC. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE MID 50S TO                 
LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. THE 12Z GSO                  
SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.33 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS OF               
25-30F AS LOW AS 925-950 MB.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS IN             
THE LOWER 80S AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC              
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND TO THE S/SE BY EVENING.               
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND            
WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE              
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BETWEEN 15-17Z OR SO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN                   
SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND THIS AFTERNOON OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE            
LOWER 30S. THIS WILL YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20% DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-12 MPH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT               
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BEING ATTAINED               
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...VERY DRY RH VALUES COMBINED WITH MIXING              
HEIGHTS OF UP TO 8000 FT WILL LIKELY CREATE ADVERSE CONDITIONS                  
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING. -VINCENT                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 640 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
BASED ON TRENDS EVIDENT IN THE NEW 06Z NAM/GFS OF A STOUT AND                   
GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE MONDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND                 
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 30 MPH... HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT                   
PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW. SEE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS BELOW. -GIH                                                    
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY                   
COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF               
THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.             
THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW                 
POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE             
AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...                 
VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY TODAY AND RETURNING TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST             
LATE...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. -DJF                                            
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
BASED ON THESE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... THE              
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION FOR NEAR-CRITICAL              
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. RH IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AT              
30-35% MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR FIRE WEATHER                
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF RH                  
FORECASTS BEGIN TO TREND LOWER.                                                 
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR TODAY`S FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. -GIH                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED QUIET... GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE... DRY AND               
WARM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING OVERHEAD. APART FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN              
THE 80-84 RANGE TODAY... OF NOTE WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL DOWN THROUGH THE            
30S THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLE LOWER. SEE FIRE WEATHER                      
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 46-51...              
BUT OUTLYING RURAL AREAS MAY SEE COOLER READINGS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON... INTRODUCING                   
STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND                  
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS MORNING`S MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS             
TROUGH HELPS TAMP DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... A BIT MORE PROFOUND ON THE NAM THAN THE GFS.            
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO OUR WSW NOSES TOWARD WESTERN NC... AND               
MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ZIPPING ACROSS VA MONDAY                   
NIGHT... HOWEVER THE WESTERLY-SHIFTING 850 MB WINDS SHOULD LIMIT                
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE LIFT IS TO OUR                   
NORTH... SO WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT INCREASING            
CLOUDS NW TO SE. HIGHS 80-84 MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY LOWS 53-56. THEN             
ON TUESDAY... THE FRONT BECOMES W-E ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE IN THE               
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH... ABOUT 150% OF              
NORMAL... AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING OVER 500 J/KG            
FAVORS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING            
DESPITE A WARM POCKET IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGHS 80-83... WITH LOWS               
TUESDAY NIGHT 55-60 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH                   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR              
EVENING STORM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT             
THE GFS/ECMWF ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE TAIL               
END OF ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DRAGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.               
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH... ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. THIS WAVE               
DAMPENS AS IT HEADS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NC             
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND REALLY LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH                     
FRIDAY... SO MUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES... WHICH REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... SHOW NO RESPONSE THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE            
SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT WANES CONSIDERABLY... SO QPF MAY BE SORELY               
LIMITED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS... BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THEREAFTER WITH THE              
CONSISTENT GFS SHOWING A DRY COLUMN AND STABILIZING MID LEVELS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE UPPER               
70S TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.             
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH MORNING. -GIH                      
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...RAPID EVENING COOLING OVER               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AT            
THE TIME...RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-TO-IFR FOG AT KFAY AND            
KRWI.  EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS                 
HIGHER...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO            
RESULT IN A LIGHT...BUT OBSERVED...WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AROUND             
06Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ROSE AT KRWI.  DEW POINTS ARE               
HIGHEST TOWARD THE EAST AND HAVE PROVIDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
MVFR...LIGHT FOG AT KRWI...BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.             
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN                
800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL            
MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI             
VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.  THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A            
LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH                 
LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH            
SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY AND RETURNING            
TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE. -DJF                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED FIRES BURNING IN              
HARNETT... CUMBERLAND... AND HOKE COUNTIES... AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES PLUMMETED TO 16-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON... MUCH LOWER THAN              
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED. WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY               
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY                
WHEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE... WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR               
MASS... ANOTHER STEEP DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED              
TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS                    
GUIDANCE VALUES... CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS ONE GETS WHEN THE LOWEST 100            
MB ON THE MORNING RUC SOUNDING IS MIXED. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD             
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RECOVERY INTO THE              
30-40% RANGE TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FIRE                 
CONCERN WITH W TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND FAIRLY             
LIGHT ALOFT... GIVEN THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE DOWN TO             
ABOUT 3-5%... THESE DRY RH VALUES WILL NOT HELP THIS SITUATION.                 
EXPECT MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY UP TO 8000 FT. -GIH/DJF                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
640 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
BASED ON TRENDS EVIDENT IN THE NEW 06Z NAM/GFS OF A STOUT AND                   
GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE MONDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND                 
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 30 MPH... HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT                   
PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW. SEE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS BELOW. -GIH                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY                   
COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF               
THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.             
THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW                 
POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE             
AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...                 
VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY TODAY AND RETURNING TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST             
LATE...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. -DJF                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
BASED ON THESE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... THE              
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION FOR NEAR-CRITICAL              
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. RH IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AT              
30-35% MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR FIRE WEATHER                
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF RH                  
FORECASTS BEGIN TO TREND LOWER.                                                 
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR TODAY`S FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. -GIH                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED QUIET... GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE... DRY AND               
WARM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING OVERHEAD. APART FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN              
THE 80-84 RANGE TODAY... OF NOTE WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL DOWN THROUGH THE            
30S THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLE LOWER. SEE FIRE WEATHER                      
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 46-51...              
BUT OUTLYING RURAL AREAS MAY SEE COOLER READINGS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON... INTRODUCING                   
STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND                  
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS MORNING`S MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS             
TROUGH HELPS TAMP DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... A BIT MORE PROFOUND ON THE NAM THAN THE GFS.            
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO OUR WSW NOSES TOWARD WESTERN NC... AND               
MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ZIPPING ACROSS VA MONDAY                   
NIGHT... HOWEVER THE WESTERLY-SHIFTING 850 MB WINDS SHOULD LIMIT                
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE LIFT IS TO OUR                   
NORTH... SO WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT INCREASING            
CLOUDS NW TO SE. HIGHS 80-84 MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY LOWS 53-56. THEN             
ON TUESDAY... THE FRONT BECOMES W-E ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE IN THE               
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH... ABOUT 150% OF              
NORMAL... AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING OVER 500 J/KG            
FAVORS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING            
DESPITE A WARM POCKET IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGHS 80-83... WITH LOWS               
TUESDAY NIGHT 55-60 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH                   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR              
EVENING STORM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT             
THE GFS/ECMWF ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE TAIL               
END OF ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DRAGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.               
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH... ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. THIS WAVE               
DAMPENS AS IT HEADS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NC             
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND REALLY LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH                     
FRIDAY... SO MUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES... WHICH REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... SHOW NO RESPONSE THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE            
SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT WANES CONSIDERABLY... SO QPF MAY BE SORELY               
LIMITED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS... BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THEREAFTER WITH THE              
CONSISTENT GFS SHOWING A DRY COLUMN AND STABILIZING MID LEVELS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE UPPER               
70S TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.             
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH MORNING. -GIH                      
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...RAPID EVENING COOLING OVER               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AT            
THE TIME...RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-TO-IFR FOG AT KFAY AND            
KRWI.  EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS                 
HIGHER...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO            
RESULT IN A LIGHT...BUT OBSERVED...WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AROUND             
06Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ROSE AT KRWI.  DEW POINTS ARE               
HIGHEST TOWARD THE EAST AND HAVE PROVIDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
MVFR...LIGHT FOG AT KRWI...BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.             
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN                
800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL            
MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI             
VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.  THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A            
LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH                 
LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH            
SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY AND RETURNING            
TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE. -DJF                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED FIRES BURNING IN              
HARNETT... CUMBERLAND... AND HOKE COUNTIES... AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES PLUMMETED TO 16-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON... MUCH LOWER THAN              
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED. WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY               
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY                
WHEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE... WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR               
MASS... ANOTHER STEEP DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED              
TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS                    
GUIDANCE VALUES... CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS ONE GETS WHEN THE LOWEST 100            
MB ON THE MORNING RUC SOUNDING IS MIXED. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD             
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RECOVERY INTO THE              
30-40% RANGE TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FIRE                 
CONCERN WITH W TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND FAIRLY             
LIGHT ALOFT... GIVEN THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE DOWN TO             
ABOUT 3-5%... THESE DRY RH VALUES WILL NOT HELP THIS SITUATION.                 
EXPECT MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY UP TO 8000 FT. -GIH/DJF                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD                                                        
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
431 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND TIMING THE               
ENDING OF PCPN MON.                                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE              
LIFTING NE THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA. AT THE             
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER ERN NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT            
TRANSITIONING TO COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TOWARD KDLH AND CYQT. WITH             
FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE SPREADING NE...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING                  
QUICKLY NE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...AS                
EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED THIS AFTN              
GENERALLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SFC DWPTS WERE SLOW TO FALL              
THRU EARLY AFTN...BUT ONCE MIXING BECAME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO TAP               
THE DRY AIR ALOFT INDICATED BY 12Z KGRB SOUNDING AND TAMDAR                     
SOUNDINGS AT KSAW...DWPTS STARTED TO FALL. IN ADDITION...TEMPS HAVE             
RISEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS...RH HAS DROPPED WELL              
DOWN INTO THE 20S. GUSTY WINDS ARE INCREASING THE CRITICAL FIRE                 
WX CONDITIONS.                                                                  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD FRONT              
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...REACHING THE W DURING THE                 
EVENING AND EXITING THE E AROUND 12Z. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE                  
WEAKENING AND THERE IS ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...EXPECT                  
FORCING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS DECENT SHRA COVERAGE ALONG/BEHIND             
SHARP COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONG            
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR WIDEPSREAD PCPN. AS FOR SVR THREAT...            
0-3KM MUCAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR              
IS SUFFICIENT (30-40KT) FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...LACK OF CAPE SUGGEST            
LITTLE/NO SVR THREAT. ON LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A               
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS SHARP WIND SHIFT               
CROSSES THE LAKE. NAM HAS 950MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40KT OVER THE E             
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND RUC13 SHOWS SFC WINDS JUST SHY OF GALES.              
ALTHOUGH PROFILE DOES NOT BECOME UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE...LOW-LEVEL             
CAA IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP TO 30KT FOR NOW.                 
INHERITED FCST LOOKED FINE FOR TIMING ENDING OF SHRA FROM W TO E MON            
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWING. LOWERED               
TEMPS A BIT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE AS A STIFF N TO NW                
WIND IS EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.                                   
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER              
ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN                    
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...ACROSS THE BORDER AND INTO TRI-STATE                
REGION.  WITH THIS STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD IT WILL REMAIN                  
DIFFICULT FOR THE ALREADY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL                  
KANSAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND INFLUENCE OUR                  
ONGOING DRY WEATHER.  UNLIKE OUR BRIEF GLIMPSE OF SUMMER LIKE                   
TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR                     
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S                
SOUTH.                                                                          
AT 500MB THE 00Z CANADIAN RUN FOR THIS NEXT LOW TO CROSS THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS...WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT            
SYSTEM SITTING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS ALSO IS A STRIKING                 
COMPARISON TO THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH            
THE GFS HAVING GONE BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND CONSENSUS                
BACKING THIS UP...WILL DISCARD THE 00Z CANADIAN.  THIS WILL CONTINUE            
TO MEAN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER PENINSULA. AT THIS                  
TIME...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY 50 OR SO MILES TO THE SOUTH OF                  
MENOMINEE.                                                                      
AS FOR CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME                    
FIGURING OUT WHERE TO PLACE THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW OVER THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST RUNS HAVE PLACED IT              
ABOUT 500 MILES FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OVER THE BAJA REGION INSTEAD            
OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THE 06Z GFS SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE             
MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH ITS 00Z RUN MORE OF A COMPROMISE                
BETWEEN THE MORE EASTWARD 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. GENERALLY                 
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 (THURSDAY THROUGH                    
SUNDAY)...WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS              
ENS MEAN.  SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS TO LOWER POPS             
SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR DRY               
FORECAST IN PLACE.  AFTER THAT...HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW               
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE OVER THE               
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION                 
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH            
THE SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SUNDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING MIZ004-005-010>012 UNTIL 8 PM EDT TODAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (SHORT TERM)                                                            
KF (LONG TERM)                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE              
LIFTING NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA. CLOSER             
TO HOME...DRY AIRMASS COVERS MUCH OF WI/UPPER MI PER EARLY MORNING              
TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW AND 12Z KGRB SOUNDING. AMOUNT OF DRY AIR              
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN RAISES FIRE WX CONCERNS AS MIXING TO 800MB ON             
KGRB SOUNDING WOULD BRING SFC DWPTS DOWN TO THE MID 30S. WITH HIGHS             
NEARING 80F...RH WOULD FALL TO NEAR 20PCT. HOWEVER...ITS TOUGH TO               
DETERMINE IF DWPTS WILL FALL THAT FAR AS THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT                
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST (NOTE THE MOIST PROFILE ON             
12Z KMPX SOUNDING). APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE AS                 
SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF IT SHOULD HELP                    
MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR OVER ERN WI INTO MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.               
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20MPH...TEMPS RISING TO 75-80F OVER MUCH             
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER AND RH DROPPING TOWARD 25PCT...IT WILL BE A              
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY...ESPECIALLY BTWN L`ANSE/MARQUETTE AND IRON                
RIVER/MENOMINEE. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF ESCANABA            
MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE LWR 50S WITH A STIFF WIND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.             
OVER THE FAR W...SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT NEAR APPROACHING COLD                 
FRONT MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE...RESULTING IN A SHARP              
TEMP DROP NEAR THE LAKE LATE IN THE AFTN.                                       
AS FOR PCPN...TRIMMED BACK EWD PROGRESS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER             
MI LATE THIS AFTN BASED ON THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. AS COLD FRONT             
OVER NE MN MOVES INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A              
NICE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TO ACT UPON...               
RESULTING IN DECENT PCPN COVERAGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE              
GRT LKS BTWN LARGER SCALE TROFS OVER THE W AND IN THE WRN ATLANTIC.             
CWA DOMINATED BY SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND            
LO PRES TROF STRETCHING FM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MN ON THE ERN FLANK            
OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH 00Z GRB/MPX/APX SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY AND                   
CAPPED...A FEW SHRA/TSRA NOTED OVER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO              
ERN LK SUP WHERE SHRTWV RUC SHOWS MOVING THRU NRN MN/ADJOINING                  
ONTARIO IS INTERACTING WITH H85 WARM FNT ON THE NRN EDGE OF MID LVL             
CAPPING MARKED BY H7 TEMP ARND 2C. SKIES MOCLR TO THE S OF WARM FNT             
DESPITE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG ABV H7 WARM            
NOSE/CAP. MORE WDSPRD CNVCTN HAS BROKEN OUT AS FAR E AS WRN MN ALG              
WARM FNT IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.            
OTHER SHRTWVS ROTATING WITHIN WRN TROF ARE LOCATED OVER SRN                     
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST.                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND DISPOSITION OF ONGOING CNVCTN              
FM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO ERN LK SUP AND FIRE WX ISSUES. FOCUS FOR               
TNGT/MON SHIFTS TO SHRA/TSRA CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW LIFTING            
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.                                                         
FOR EARLY THIS MRNG...RUC SHOWS SHRTWV HELPING TO INITIATE CNVCTN               
ALG H85 WARM FNT MOVING ENE THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. MODEL SHOWS               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND WAD LINGERING OVER ERN             
LK SUP UNTIL ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE SYS IS PROGGED TO MOVE CLOSER TO                
JAMES BAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED             
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD WRN LK SUP BY 12Z. SO                
EXPECT CNVCTN OVER NE LK SUP TO DIMINISH BY FCST ISSUANCE...BUT WL              
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCT TSRA OVER WRN LK SUP THIS MRNG. THIS NEXT               
SHRTWV FCST TO SLIDE NE INTO ONTARIO AS WELL BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF               
DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER SHRTWV FCST TO REACH             
IA BY 00Z MON ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE             
MID LVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED THRU MOST OF THE DAY TO KEEP             
LAND FA DRY EVEN THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WL PERSIST OVER WRN LK SUP ON             
EDGE OF CAP AND CLOSER TO APRCHG COOL FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW            
IN SASKATCHEWAN. BULK OF MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF OVER THE FAR              
WRN ZNS BY 00Z MON JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FNT. CONSIDERING DRY            
NATURE OF LLVLS TO THE SW (MIXING TO H8 ON 00Z MPX SDNG WOULD YIELD             
SFC DWPT ARND 40...DVN SDNG IS EVEN DRIER) AS WELL AS ACYC H85 FLOW             
IN ADVANCE OF FNT...THINK GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AT               
SPITTING OUT PCPN EVEN OVER THE FAR W BEFORE 00Z AND COLD FROPA...              
ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH MODELS PUSH SFC DWPTS INTO THE LOW 50S AT IWD             
BY 00Z. BUT SINCE GOING FCST HAS CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W AFT 21Z AND            
MODELS GENERATE SOME QPF...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS FM CMX-IWD. AS               
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MIXING TO H8-825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD             
SUPPORT HI TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE AWAY FM THE MODERATING                   
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM MPX/DVN SDNGS...MODELS              
LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE AT RETURNING LLVL MSTR AND PUSHING DWPTS AOA 50.            
IF DWPTS ARE 40 E TO 48 W...EXPECT RH TO DROP AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT             
AGAIN. WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY (NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SHOW                 
MIXED LYR WINDS INCRSG TO 25 TO 35 KT)... FIRE WX PARAMETERS WL                 
APRCH CRITICAL LVLS AGAIN TDAY.                                                 
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON FCST OF HANDLING OF SHRTWV IN IA AT               
00Z MON...WITH GFS SHOWING SHRTWV MOVING TO JUST S OF GRB AT 12 MON             
WHILE NAM HOLDS SHRTWV BACK OVER NW IL. WITH SUPPORT FM THE MOST                
CONSISTENT 00Z UKMET (WHICH IS NCEP FVRD MODEL)...WL FOLLOW THE MORE            
SIMILAR GFS SCENARIO. MEANWHILE... GFS/UKMET FCST SHRTWV IN                     
SASKATCHEWAN THIS PAST EVNG TO MOVE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ACCOMPANYING            
SFC COLD FNT MOVING TO ABOUT P53-MNM BY 12Z MON. SINCE THESE SHRTWVS            
ARE FCST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THRU THE NGT...GFS SHOWS TWO STRIPES            
OF HEAVIER PCPN. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OVER THE WRN ZNS DURING THE              
NGT DUE TO MORE SGNFT UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET SUPPORTING ONTARIO             
SHRTWV AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FGEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SFC FNT.               
GFS SHOWS THESE DYNAMICS TENDING TO SHIFT MORE NE DURING THE                    
NGT...SO ITS HEAVIER QPF DOES NOT SPREAD E. THE UKMET ON THE OTHER              
HAND INDICATES THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/FGEN WL SPREAD FARTHER E...SO IT            
DRAGS HEAVIER PCPN INTO THE CNTRL ZNS BY 12Z.  THE GFS ALSO FCSTS AN            
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS THE SCNTRL ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV                   
PASSAGE THRU WI AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE.                 
CONCERNING SVR THREAT...OLD DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAD MUCH OF THE            
W HALF OF THE FA IN SLGT RISK. THINK BEST CHC OF SVR TSRA WOULD BE              
IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FROPA OVER THE             
W WHEN FCST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KT WOULD BE BETTER PHASED WITH              
LOWER SSI FCST IN THE -2C TO -3C RANGE/STEEPER SFC-H8 LAPSE RATES               
THAT WOULD ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC.             
HOWEVER... MODIFIED GFS FCS SDNG FOR IWD AT 00Z FOR SFC T/TD 73/50              
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY GFS YIELDS            
MO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. ALTHOUGH WBZ FCST            
AT A FVRBL 9.5K FT...FCST MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE A                     
DIFFICULT TIME SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL. FCST LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROGGED            
TO DIMINISH SGNFTLY AFT 06Z...SO ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH                 
OVERNGT AS THE FNT PUSHES E. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NEW DAY1                    
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NO LONGER SHOWS THE FA IN THE SLGT RISK.                     
SINCE NCEP INDICATES THE GFS BECOMES TOO FAST ON MON...TENDED TO                
FOLLOW THE UKMET FCST FOR FCST PREPARATION. AS PAIR OF SHRTWVS MOVE             
TO THE E...MODEL FCSTS COLD FROPA AT ERY BY 15Z...WITH LINGERING                
DEEP MSTR/SHARP H85-7 FGEN CLEARING THAT POINT BY 18Z. WL KEEP                  
LINGERING HIER POPS OVER THE E HALF IN THE MRNG WITH POPS TO THE W              
DIMINISHING W-E AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA. SINCE               
UKMET IS SLOW TO LOWER H85 DWPT (SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS)...SUSPECT             
THERE WL BE A GOOD AMT OF SC IN THE AFTN OVER AREAS INLAND FM THE               
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE                 
LATER IN THE DAY...SO EXPECT CLRG OF THE SC LATER WITH LOWERING SUN             
ANGLE. MON WL TURN OUT MUCH COOLER WITH UKMET SHOWING H85 TEMP                  
LOWERING TO 2 TO 4C BY 00Z TUE.                                                 
QUIET AND COOLER WX LOOKS ON TAP MON NGT THRU MOST OF THE REST OF               
THE WEEK AS CNDN HI PRES BLDS FM THE NW TERRITORIES INTO ONTARIO.               
NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD CA LOOKS LIKE IT WL REMAIN WELL TO THE            
S AS IT MOVES E. JUST MINOR CHGS TO MESH BETTER WITH SURROUNDING                
OFFICES MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                     
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING MIZ004-005-010>012 UNTIL 8 PM EDT TODAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
253 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
18Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN                               
NE. SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM OVER                  
LAKE SUPERIOR...THROUGH SE MINNESOTA...AND INTO ERN NE... WITH                  
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON MN SIDE OF CWA.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT-WED)                                                     
FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT ON PRECIPITATION ENDING IN ERN HALF OF                   
CWA. 12Z NAM SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING OUT                 
OF SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WHILE RUC80                 
HOLDING ON UNTIL THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. TENDING TOWARDS RUC                 
SOLUTION AND KEEPING PRECIP IN UNTIL 06Z...WITH GENERALLY AROUND                
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH QPF...HOWEVER EXTREME SE CORNER COULD SEE AROUND           
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                          
NEXT FOCUS ON A WEAK WAVE CLIPPING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE                  
CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WEAK...MID               
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA TUE                     
MORNING...AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA ON                
TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO BRING WEAK QPFS INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH                
DAKOTA...HOWEVER A SFC RIDGE IS PRGOGGED TO EXTEND DOWN FROM NRN                
MANITOBA ...AND NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY LAYER BELOW 6000 FEET. EXPECT                    
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA SHOWERS AT MOST AT THIS TIME.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TOWARDS WEAK            
ZONAL. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL ON A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ON             
THU WITH LIGHT HIT AND MISS PRECIP...OTHERWISE DRY AT LEAST TIL LATE            
SAT. LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY IS A BIGGER QUESTION AS 12Z GFS AND ECMWF             
DISAGREE WIDELY OVER AMPLIFYING ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH...AGAIN INTO              
MB AND LOW POPS ARE APPLICABLE FARTHER SOUTH. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE            
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THIS WEEK AS FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED              
TO AMPLIFY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. HIGH SOIL MOISTURE                         
AT FAR/BJI WILL BE OFF SET BY DRY ADVECTION AND A CONTINUING VERY               
LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. SO NO LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/GV                                                                     
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
244 PM PDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON              
MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. THE QUIET               
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION               
ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS                     
APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.              
COMPARING 21Z VAD WIND PROFILER DATA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER FROM                
KOTX AND KPDT ALSO SHOWS THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE THAT HAS HELPED               
PRODUCE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON                   
TODAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE IS NOT STRONG DYNAMICALLY...BUT WITH A               
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST                                
ADIABATIC...LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE                 
RUC AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHALLOW FEATURE EXISTS...BUT DOESN`T              
EXACTLY HAVE THE SMALL SCALE RESOLUTION PEGGED. BOTH MODELS                     
GRADUALLY MINOR THIS CIRCULATION OUT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...SO A                 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AND                  
PERHAPS A SHIFT OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SOUTHWARD AS THE                      
CIRCULATION IS ABSORBED BE THE LARGER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE                
GREAT BASIN. THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT VERY              
EFFICIENTLY SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE LIGHT                  
TONIGHT. AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST WITH THE BIGGER UPPER                
TROUGH...REDEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN STRATUS IS PROBABLE IN THE                     
SPOKANE...PULLMAN...AND LEWISTON AREAS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL               
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HINDER OUR WARM UP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND                 
FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON. LOW TO MID 60S ARE WHAT WE EXPECT FOR THE               
SPOKANE AND PULLMAN AREAS TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS COULD BE A BIT                   
WARMER OR A BIT COOLER DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE STRATUS                   
TOMORROW.                                                                       
TUESDAY...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECASTING               
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING OUT OF                
THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY                     
IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES...BUT THE COLD FRONT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO                   
SIGNIFICANT STRETCHING. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES CENTRAL AND               
EASTERN WASHINGTON...THE LOWLANDS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH               
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG                 
THE EAST SLOPES AND INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH LOW CHANCES                  
(30-40 PERCENT) FOR THE SPOKANE...PULLMAN...AND LEWISTON AREAS                  
TUESDAY EVENING. /GKOCH                                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS TODAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN                       
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT AGAIN HAVING INITIALIZATION                     
PROBLEMS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT MAY HAVE A BEARING ON THE                 
EVENTUAL FORECAST EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z                 
GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZED THE SPRAWLING 500 MB LOW THERE MUCH MORE              
ACCURATELY THAN THE BULK OF THE GEFS MEMBERS AND THE GEFS                       
MEAN...SO FORECAST WILL TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL 12Z                
GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTED THE LAST                 
SEVERAL DAYS BY GUIDANCE SHOULD HOLD TRUE...THOUGH A FEW TIMING                 
DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE                 
GFS AND ECMWF WHICH TEND TO BE THE BETTER PERFORMING MEDIUM RANGE               
MODELS.                                                                         
THE BASIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE                  
NEARLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO              
AROUND -26C AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AT OR BELOW                    
ZERO...WESTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15KTS INDICATED BY GFS AND                 
NAM SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY EAST TIME INTERACTING WITH TOPOGRAPHY TO               
CAUSE UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GFS                 
AND NAM SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH              
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE RIDGES AND OVER THE NORTHEAST                   
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. HAVE ALSO ADDED                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WEST PLAINS AND PALOUSE GIVEN THE                  
MORE GENTLE UPSLOPE FROM LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WITH GENERAL FLOW                 
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO POP WITH THE LOW                  
LEVEL INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS.                                          
CONDITIONS QUICKLY QUIET DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBDUED               
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START TO              
REBOUND SOME...BUT THE WINDOW WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION IS NOT                 
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH THE 12Z RUNS TODAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE               
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE CASCADES WITH               
GOOD Q-CONVERGENCE BELOW 500 MB CROSSING THE NORTHERN 3/4THS OF                 
THE CWA AND GFS INDICATING PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC OMEGAS IN THE                 
295 TO 305K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING                   
DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY BELOW 10 MB ON STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY                     
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 300K. MODELS FAIL TO HAVE WARM FRONT                      
TRAVERSE AREA ENOUGH WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY TO GET US FULLY INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...AND AS A RESULT BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES ARE                   
BASICALLY NIL WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN FACT THE FORECAST WILL                      
BASICALLY JUST MENTION STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON MAINLY                       
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF SOME COLDER MID-LEVEL              
AIR SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UPSLOPE                  
FLOW PERSISTING BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY...HAVE ADDED THE                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERY POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG                
LAPSE RATES AND WIND FLOW.                                                      
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT                           
WEEK...MODELS OTHER THAN THE DGEX REALLY START TO CRANK HEIGHTS UP              
OVER THE CWA. THE DGEX SOLUTION DOES INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING IN               
AS WELL...BUT IN A MUCH MORE SUBDUED FASHION THAN THE GFS AND                   
ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN GLOBAL ONLY GOES OUT              
144 HRS...BUT CANADIAN GEM ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT A FAIR AMOUNT OF                
RIDGING BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN SEF               
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. FOR THE                  
MOMENT DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND                      
ECMWF...THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE               
SLOWED DOWN ABOUT ONE DAY FROM THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY...BUT IT                  
SEEMS BY SUNDAY AND DEFINITELY MONDAY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD BE IN               
FOR A STRONG WARMING TREND. /FRIES                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z IN              
THE SPOKANE VICINITY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AREAS OF RAIN. IFR                 
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS             
AFTERNOON BRING SLOW IMPROVEMENTS. A RETURN OF STRATUS IS LIKELY                
OVERNIGHT. TIMING ITS REDEVELOPMENT IS TOUGH SINCE THE MODELS                   
FORECAST LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL FLOW TO EITHER SUGGEST UPSLOPE                  
ENHANCEMENT OR DOWNSLOPE EROSION OF LOW CLOUD. THUS THE INTRODUCTION            
OF MVFR STRATUS AROUND 12Z IS NOT AN OVERLY CONFIDENT FORECAST.                 
/GKOCH                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        40  63  42  65  41  55 /  30  10   0  20  40  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  40  63  42  65  41  56 /  20  10  10  20  50  20                 
PULLMAN        38  60  43  64  41  55 /  40  10  10  20  50  20                 
LEWISTON       46  65  44  70  47  59 /  40  10  10  10  40  10                 
COLVILLE       38  67  42  65  37  54 /  20  10   0  40  30  20                 
SANDPOINT      39  65  40  64  43  54 /  20  20  10  20  50  20                 
KELLOGG        39  61  40  63  41  54 /  30  20  10  20  50  30                 
MOSES LAKE     42  70  44  67  42  62 /  20   0  10  20  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      45  70  46  66  44  61 /  10   0  10  20  10  10                 
OMAK           39  70  42  65  37  60 /  10   0  10  30  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa