FXUS04 KWBC 141839
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
238 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 15/0000 UTC THRU JUL 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

WITH NO 12Z ETA..GFS AND NGM AVBL..DUE TO PLANNED
OUTAGE..USED A BLEND OF 06Z GUIDANCE AND WHAT I COULD USE FM
THE MM5..CANADIAN AND UKMET MDLS FOR THIS FCST.   AS A
RESULT..MADE VRY LTL CHG TO PREVIOUS QPF.

...NERN STATES...

UNSEASONABLY STG VORTEX VCNTY OF LK ERIE ATTM WL KEEP THINGS
UNSTABLE AND WET MUCH OF NY STATE INTO NEW ENG THIS PD..AS IT
TURNS MORE EWD TNGT AND THEN NEWD TO NR SRN QUEBEC PROV BY
THU EVE.  COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND HGT FALLS WL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CNVCTN THIS REGION..WITH THE MM5 QPF NOT THAT DIFF
FM 06Z ETA AND GFS.  XPC LRG SWATH OF GTR THAN 0.50 INCH RNFN
AMTS..WITH SOME ISOLD GTR THAN 1 INCH TOTALS NRN NY STATE.

...SWRN STATES...

THE MM5..LIKE THE 06Z MDLS..IS TAKING THE WELL DEFINED S/WV
NOW W OF THE BIG BEND WNWWD INTO SWRN AZ BY THE END OF THIS
PD..WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT MOVS UNDERNEATH STG ROCKIES
RDG.   MSTR IS ALREADY VRY HI IN AZ THIS MRNG..AS PER PWS
APCHG 2 INCHES..SO XPC ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED AND LCLY
HVY CNVCTN MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF AZ THIS PD..AIDED BY LRG
SCALE LIFT FM THE S/WV AND THE HI MSTR AVBLTY.   THE MM5
ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF THIS AREA COMPARED TO THE 06Z
MDLS..AND AT LEAST LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION.   XPC RATHER
WIDESPREAD GTR THAN 0.50 INCH RNFL AMTS..WITH SOME LCL TOTALS
GTR THAN 1 INCH..ESP ACRS SRN AZ.

...SERN STATES...

COMBO OF UPR DIVG ON SRN END OF THE ERN U.S. MID/UPR LVL
TROF..FNTL CNVGNC AND POOLING OF HI PWS VCNTY OF THE
FNT..SHLD ALL SUPPORT RATHER ORGANIZED CNVCTN..ESP THU
AFTN..FM CNTRL/SRN GA AND AL INTO NRN FL AND THE FL PNHNDL.  
THE 06Z ETA QPF SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST WITH AT LEAST
SOME MODEST RNFL AMTS..WHILE THE 06Z GFS AND MM5 LOOKED
UNDERDONE.   XPC AT LEAST SOME 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMTS GIVEN
HI MSTR AVBLTY AND ANTICIPATED SLO CELL MOVEMENT.

...NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT/MEXICO...

SOME LESSENING OF MSTR OVR THE TIER 1 AREA AS BLAS CONTS TO
WKN/LIFT NWWD AWAY FM MEXICO SHLD RESULT IN MAINLY AFTN/EVE
CNVCTN THIS REGION..WITH LIGHTER RNFL AMTS AS COMPARED TO
PAST SVRL DAYS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 224065 240075 256087 271099 277104 281107 284112 289121 
      292126 295129 313141 323148 327149 333150 339150 342150 
      346146 350142 355140 365134 372135 379134 388130 398127 
      408129 414131 417133 418135 419138 425136 463131 466113 
      471104 472100 471096 468092 459083 426047 421044 420040 
      424037 428036 438040 447043 458049 466051 470050 473047 
      475039 475028 480015 480007 476003 471001 465000 460998 
      458997 456993 454988 449983 431969 412957 395946 392944 
      387943 382941 378941 377945 376950 377954 380959 390968 
      393971 397978 399985 398994 396005 391015 389020 384024 
      374029 370030 366033 358044 352054 353065 351070 347072 
      341068 324078 320079 314078 304075 294069 285065 250048 
      238040 228032 
 0.01 493793 499768 506731 504707 500686 488663 466651 449655 
      408672 361701 297756 275780 267784 261784 255784 248785 
      243790 244799 242805 244812 252820 259825 268831 272833 
      275837 282851 285860 287868 290884 291894 293902 296909 
      301914 305916 311914 318910 322908 328907 334912 339920 
      347930 355933 356929 353924 356916 360910 359896 355873 
      353860 349841 348837 348827 348822 350815 352802 354795 
      358789 363784 366779 370774 378767 384762 392758 397756 
      406755 409758 407765 405771 404774 400776 395778 391783 
      386787 382792 377805 375814 379816 385814 393814 398816 
      404820 413825 417826 422829 426832 433834 445836 451837 
      457841 461840 465837 471832 476830 479825 483817 488810 
      490804 493793 
 0.01 544183 541177 537170 531163 526157 517154 509156 505160 
      502167 501173 501177 501185 503189 508193 515200 519206 
      524213 529221 534227 
 0.01 519006 517995 514981 510970 506962 502956 496950 486939 
      479936 471934 464929 461924 455915 450907 442892 437883 
      432879 428878 424879 417884 414893 415904 416911 417916 
      419923 421929 424934 425939 428941 435956 441963 448969 
      454971 460973 478973 481976 483979 488987 497004 501011 
      505017 508019 512019 516016 519006 
 0.01 346168 347165 345161 342158 340157 337157 334157 331157 
      328156 326157 324158 323161 324165 325165 327167 330168 
      333168 336169 338170 341170 344169 346168 
 0.25 487699 485691 482683 476673 473669 470668 466667 462669 
      432702 427704 423704 414703 411703 406705 402709 398714 
      391723 384729 381733 380737 382741 386742 393744 401741 
      407740 410741 417744 419751 420759 419768 413788 412793 
      413797 414805 417810 423815 430816 439818 447821 453825 
      461826 466824 472820 474816 475809 479787 489744 490731 
      490718 487699 
 0.25 359750 357750 355752 352754 351755 350755 348759 347761 
      346762 345766 344766 343770 343772 344774 347774 350773 
      352770 353769 354766 354764 355761 356760 357758 359754 
      359750 
 0.25 407061 408056 407053 405049 400038 397036 392038 386043 
      383047 382050 383054 386058 382061 379065 375067 373068 
      373072 376075 378080 384080 390081 392082 395079 400072 
      405064 407061 
 0.25 325807 323799 320795 313796 307798 285801 275802 270803 
      269807 266809 266812 268815 276818 286822 289825 293831 
      295836 298843 298856 298868 298874 300881 302887 306893 
      309892 311887 313881 316876 318871 323868 327857 328845 
      328830 326818 325807 
 0.25 306118 321131 328134 332137 336137 339132 341129 345121 
      346118 348109 348096 343092 336092 332099 327099 321097 
      313095 307094 300094 297096 297101 298107 302114 306118 
 0.25 267075 266074 266072 265069 264067 263066 261064 260063 
      258062 256060 254060 253059 252060 250063 252066 253068 
      253069 256072 258075 261077 262078 264078 265078 266075 
      267075 
 0.50 474690 472686 470684 463684 459687 455693 451700 446707 
      440712 436714 429715 423714 417714 415714 412717 414722 
      418726 419732 419738 425746 427755 428765 428769 425773 
      422777 420785 420793 421799 423802 428802 436801 442803 
      446805 457812 464813 467812 469797 477765 479754 479745 
      477728 476708 476702 474691 474690 
 0.50 399061 401057 400053 398049 395048 392048 390050 392053 
      392054 394057 392060 392061 391064 392065 395065 396064 
      398062 399061 
 0.50 312855 317842 319835 319826 314814 308812 305817 307826 
      305856 303861 306864 312855 
 0.50 316119 325128 329130 333128 334122 332114 324107 316102 
      310103 308107 311111 313114 316119 
 1.00 466768 465755 461745 453744 446747 442753 444759 449766 
      452766 458778 461778 465772 466768  
 
5$$