AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
408 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH.                              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A             
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ATTM.              
WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS                
NORTHERN WYOMING WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST               
ATTM. WYOMING WAVE SPREADING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                  
COLORADO WITH REGIONAL SATELLITE PICS INDICATING GENERALLY CLEAR                
SKIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE ATTM.                                          
TODAY...NORTHERN WYOMING SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS                
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE              
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS PAC NW              
WAVE AND 80+KT JET DIGS INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST              
COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. PASSING WYOMING WAVE ALLOWS FOR            
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING              
HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST                
WITH LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.              
LATEST NAM INDICATING DEW PTS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE              
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES GENERALLY            
LESS THAN 500J/KG WITH BEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST MTS.               
HAVE KEPT CURRENT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ALONG THE              
PALMER DVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT             
AND BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS...COULD SEE A               
FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MTS IF CONVECTION CAN                   
INITIATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO             
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 70S TO              
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE            
HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS.                                                
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WESTERN WYOMING SHORT WAVE               
MOVING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A SFC             
LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE                  
OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST NAM INDICATING COLD FRONT BACKDOORING ACROSS            
THE PALMER DVD AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS KEEPING THE              
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH NORTH               
AND EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH WAA AND LIFT ALONG BOUNDARY                  
SLIDING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS               
THE KANSAS BORDER...HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS             
THE PLAINS WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. NAM SOUNDINGS           
INDICATING ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WITH MU CAPES BETWEEN 500-1200               
J/KG AND BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS...COULD SEE            
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS              
WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. -MW                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...MAIN CONCERN IS COOL AIR EARLY IN PERIOD THEN RETURN TO SOME                 
   MONSOON MOISTURE DURING THE MIDWEEK...                                       
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST 06Z NAM SIMULATION HAS COLD FRONT                   
BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE                 
DOWN PAST THE CO/NM BORDER PRIOR TO NOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH                 
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.                   
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST                         
AREA...WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE PALMER DVD NOT GETTING OUT OF THE               
50S. AS FOR PRECIP...THERE MAY BE SOME EXITING TSRA DURING THE                  
12-15 UTC TIME FRAME OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...BUT AFTER THESE MOVE               
OUT I BELIEVE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE GOING TO BE RATHER QUITE                
LOW OVER THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE E                
SLOPES OF THE S MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PDS. ANY TSRA THAT               
DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE E ONTO THE MUCH COOLER              
AIR OVER THE ADJ PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO                 
CLOUDY OVER THE PLAINS ALL DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF OVC                    
CONDITIONS OVER THE S MTNS/ADJ PLAINS. AS FOR AREAS W OF THE S                  
MTNS...THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM.                         
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR                
SE SXNS OF THE SE CO PLAINS AS WAA DEVELOPS OVER THIS REGION. I                 
EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY LATE EVENING/EARLY               
MORNING HOURS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE SE INTO OK/KS. SOME              
OF THIS CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG (MAINLY HAIL).                               
EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/CLOUDS                
OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...SAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY OVER THE REGION                
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.                          
BY SUNDAY..WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.            
BY SUNDAY EVE WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. WE MAY               
ALSO SEE THINGS CLOUD UP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE E                   
PLAINS.                                                                         
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY            
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION.                  
BY TUESDAY INTO WED...BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATE MONSOON MSTR            
WILL BE ADVECTED UP FROM THE S BY A BROAD TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE             
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN TO BOTH THE MTNS              
AND PLAINS DURING THESE TWO DAYS. SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING WE WILL               
HAVE SOME BRISK FLOW ALOFT SO IF SUFFICIENT LLVL INSTABILITY IS IN              
PLACE...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A ORGANIZED STORMS ON THESE DAYS.                
/HODANISH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND                              
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE            
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15              
TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING SFC                    
PRESSURES ALONG WITH EASTERN MTS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO              
WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA EXPECTED            
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS                 
AND MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH                 
LATEST NAM INDICATING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING MVFR AND PATCHY IFR             
CIGS AND NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND I-25                    
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. -MW                                            
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE 06 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1000 MB LOW (THE                  
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV) CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND A HIGH                 
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA              
SHOWED VERY DRY MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC AIR EAST OF THE                          
APALACHICOLA/CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE               
FROM SOUTHERN MS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) THE 00 UTC MODEL RUNS FORECAST PLENTY OF               
WARM DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST                     
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE              
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA/CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAS THE CASE                      
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE BUT THE RELATIVE                   
HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED            
TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF HANNA FARTHER EAST WITH EACH RUN...AND OUR                
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR AREA              
FRIDAY AS IT PASSES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. HOWEVER...THE                         
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO FORECAST SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO SWEEP             
OVER OUR AREA FROM HANNA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE             
IN CS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A                
WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S.              
EAST COAST...AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE              
TO WARRANT AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE POPS.                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY) SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE SATURDAY                
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE                    
MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER DRY AIR FILLING IN ACROSS THE                
CWA FROM NW TO SE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK                    
FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN                
TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE                 
EASTERN STATES. THE GFS HAS IKE RECURVING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND               
THE ECMWF KEEPS IKE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND BEGINS TO                   
RECURVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THROUGH                
THIS PERIOD...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE                 
CWA WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE               
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH               
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.                 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY              
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN AND AROUND THE               
KPFN AND KDHN TERMINALS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A NOCTURNAL SURGE HAS                 
DEVELOPED...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE LAST NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE             
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS...AND FORECASTS THE                 
WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND               
SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  91  68  88  70  90 /  10  10  20  20  30                           
PANAMA CITY  88  73  87  74  87 /  20  10  20  20  30                           
DOTHAN       90  69  89  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  30                           
ALBANY       91  68  89  70  90 /   0  10  20  20  30                           
VALDOSTA     90  67  88  68  90 /   0  10  20  20  30                           
CROSS CITY   92  68  87  68  89 /  10  10  20  20  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GIBBS                                                      
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
142 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT WDLY SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SW OVER EAST COAST                  
THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER, THEY WILL MOVE FAST AND SO WILL NOT               
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TERMINALS OPERATION. WL INDICATE VCSH                
OVER ALL ERN TERMINALS, EXCEPT KTMB (SHWRS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE                
GETTING THAT FAR INLAND), BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.                
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR KAPF THROUGH 06Z FRI. SFC                  
WINDS WL REMAIN NE INCREASING IN SPEED OVER ALL TERMINALS BY MID                
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER EAST                 
COAST. WND DIRECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT AS HANNA               
MOVES NW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008/                         
UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY REVEALS ATLANTIC HIGH ACROSS THE                
SE STRETCHING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN HANNA FARTHER EAST              
TRACK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST COAST HAS RELAXED SOME              
MEANING SLIGHTLY LESS WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN SO                  
WILL DOWNGRADE SCA FOR BISCAYNE BAY TO A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE                   
CAUTION. EVEN WHEN THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC                  
WATERS AT THE PRESENT TIME IS BELOW SCA...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN                   
BLOWING FROM THE NE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW WHICH MEANS WAVE HEIGHTS                 
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND IF ANYTHING INCREASE SOME AS HANNA PASSES TO               
THE EAST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A SOME INCREASE IN THE              
WINDS. SO SCA WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE UNTIL HANNA PASSES THE AREA                
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.                                                        
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS HANNA PASSES BY, WINDS SHOULD                
INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TURN MORE FROM THE                 
NORTH AND THEN NW BY FRIDAY. WITH THAT, SWELLS SHOULD COME DOWN                 
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.              
THE STORM WILL BE MOVING BY CLOSE AND FAST ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN                 
COMPONENT OF THE WAVES WILL BE WIND WAVES. SWELLS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE           
TOO SHORT TO RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS AT THE COASTS. REGARDLESS                 
OF THIS, SURF SHOULD BE ROUGH ENOUGH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PALM               
BEACH COUNTY BEACHES AND MAY BE BROWARD TO RESULT IN MINOR BEACH                
EROSION AND CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. VERY MINOR                     
FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS WHERE ROADS ARE VERY CLOSE TO               
THE WATER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BUT GIVEN CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DO                
NOT RISE TO THE LEVEL OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY, DECIDED TO PUT OUT               
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME FOR COASTAL               
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. I THINK THIS IS THE PRUDENT THING              
TO DO GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE THIS, CAUTION IS ADVISED AND A              
HIGH SURF ADVISORY COULD STILL BE NEEDED SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008/                           
AVIATION...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                 
THE PERIOD, BUT BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY LATE ON THURSDAY                
AS HANNA MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS. ALSO, WINDS WILL                  
BECOME GUSTY DURING THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE               
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, BUT OVERALL                    
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW UNTIL HANNA MOVES CLOSER TO THE                  
NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. /TINGLER                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND RUC MODEL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS                  
INDICATE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-                     
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC                      
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TROPICAL                 
STORM HANNA OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. CONFLUENT FLOW IN                
THE MID-LEVELS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD               
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER                
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-24                       
HOURS...AND SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD                  
RAINFALL...AS PWAT VALUE ON THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMFL DROPPED                      
ABRUPTLY TO 1.54 INCHES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE FACTORS...WILL                 
INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR THE EAST COAST/ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS              
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL BE MORE                    
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED                     
SHOWERS.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...IN              
FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO                         
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV BECOME SHEARED AND                 
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIFTING              
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NORTHWARD...IN                       
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE               
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS INDICATED BY OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC...                 
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM              
HANNA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                   
EARLY FRIDAY...AS HANNA MAKES HER CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTH                     
FLORIDA. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS MOST               
OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BULK OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC                  
WATERS. HOWEVER...DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME                     
RANGE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW OUTER RAIN BANDS TO                
BE PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN LOW                   
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST                          
AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST...AND HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE                   
ATLANTIC WATERS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE                
COASTAL ZONES AND PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN ZONES FROM THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A                   
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLE                  
COASTAL FLOODING... MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON                   
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF                    
FWC/MAV/MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE                 
TREND OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST                 
COAST...GIVEN ANTICIPATION OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLEARING              
SKIES.                                                                          
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON BUILDING THE CENTRAL               
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SATURDAY                
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT               
IN A PERIOD OF BOTH PWATS AND POPS LOWER THAN CLIMO. TOWARD THE                 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL                  
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IKE...WHICH IS                    
FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...BASED ON LATEST                     
OFFICIAL TRACK FROM NHC. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME.                                 
MARINE...                                                                       
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM                   
HANNA ON THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK                  
FROM NHC MAINTAINS HANNA ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING ACROSS THE                  
BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...AND EXPECT                
WINDS TO RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND BACKING FROM                  
NORTHEAST- NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF HANNA                
REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN BY FRIDAY. A STRONG               
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL ALLOW SEAS TO                     
RAPIDLY BUILD...WITH PEAKS OF 14-16 FEET LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE ON                
THURSDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED BY NORTHEAST ORIENTED                  
SWELL GENERATED BY HANNA...BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK VALUES OF SWELL                
HEIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON A FORECAST TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE                  
EAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                       
SATURDAY...BUT DID EXTEND SCA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC               
WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. A VERY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL                  
CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR               
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SWIMMING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENT REGIME ALONG SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF TROPICAL                
STORM HANNA WILL FORCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE                     
45-50 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...ALONG WITH                  
WINDY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE. HOWEVER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS                
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  73 / 20 30 30 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  76  93  76 / 20 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            90  76  93  76 / 20 10 10 10                                   
NAPLES           92  73  89  73 / -  -  -  10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-              
     AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                             
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...54/BNB                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1011 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY REVEALS ATLANTIC HIGH ACROSS THE               
SE STRETCHING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN HANNA FARTHER EAST              
TRACK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST COAST HAS RELAXED SOME              
MEANING SLIGHTLY LESS WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN SO                  
WILL DOWNGRADE SCA FOR BISCAYNE BAY TO A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE                   
CAUTION. EVEN WHEN THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC                  
WATERS AT THE PRESENT TIME IS BELOW SCA...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN                   
BLOWING FROM THE NE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW WHICH MEANS WAVE HEIGHTS                 
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND IF ANYTHING INCREASE SOME AS HANNA PASSES TO               
THE EAST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A SOME INCREASE IN THE              
WINDS. SO SCA WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE UNTIL HANNA PASSES THE AREA                
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.                                                        
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS HANNA PASSES BY, WINDS SHOULD                
INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TURN MORE FROM THE                 
NORTH AND THEN NW BY FRIDAY. WITH THAT, SWELLS SHOULD COME DOWN                 
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.              
THE STORM WILL BE MOVING BY CLOSE AND FAST ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN                 
COMPONENT OF THE WAVES WILL BE WIND WAVES. SWELLS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE           
TOO SHORT TO RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS AT THE COASTS. REGARDLESS                 
OF THIS, SURF SHOULD BE ROUGH ENOUGH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PALM               
BEACH COUNTY BEACHES AND MAY BE BROWARD TO RESULT IN MINOR BEACH                
EROSION AND CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. VERY MINOR                     
FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS WHERE ROADS ARE VERY CLOSE TO               
THE WATER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BUT GIVEN CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DO                
NOT RISE TO THE LEVEL OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY, DECIDED TO PUT OUT               
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME FOR COASTAL               
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. I THINK THIS IS THE PRUDENT THING              
TO DO GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE THIS, CAUTION IS ADVISED AND A              
HIGH SURF ADVISORY COULD STILL BE NEEDED SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008/                          
AVIATION...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                 
THE PERIOD, BUT BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY LATE ON THURSDAY                
AS HANNA MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS. ALSO, WINDS WILL                  
BECOME GUSTY DURING THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE               
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, BUT OVERALL                    
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW UNTIL HANNA MOVES CLOSER TO THE                  
NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. /TINGLER                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND RUC MODEL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS                  
INDICATE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-                     
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC                      
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TROPICAL                 
STORM HANNA OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. CONFLUENT FLOW IN                
THE MID-LEVELS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD               
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER                
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-24                       
HOURS...AND SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD                  
RAINFALL...AS PWAT VALUE ON THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMFL DROPPED                      
ABRUPTLY TO 1.54 INCHES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE FACTORS...WILL                 
INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR THE EAST COAST/ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS              
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL BE MORE                    
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED                     
SHOWERS.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...IN              
FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO                         
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV BECOME SHEARED AND                 
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIFTING              
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NORTHWARD...IN                       
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE               
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS INDICATED BY OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC...                 
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM              
HANNA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                   
EARLY FRIDAY...AS HANNA MAKES HER CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTH                     
FLORIDA. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS MOST               
OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BULK OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC                  
WATERS. HOWEVER...DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME                     
RANGE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW OUTER RAIN BANDS TO                
BE PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN LOW                   
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST                          
AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST...AND HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE                   
ATLANTIC WATERS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE                
COASTAL ZONES AND PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN ZONES FROM THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A                   
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLE                  
COASTAL FLOODING... MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON                   
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF                    
FWC/MAV/MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE                 
TREND OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST                 
COAST...GIVEN ANTICIPATION OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLEARING              
SKIES.                                                                          
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON BUILDING THE CENTRAL               
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SATURDAY                
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT               
IN A PERIOD OF BOTH PWATS AND POPS LOWER THAN CLIMO. TOWARD THE                 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL                  
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IKE...WHICH IS                    
FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...BASED ON LATEST                     
OFFICIAL TRACK FROM NHC. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME.                                 
MARINE...                                                                       
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM                   
HANNA ON THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK                  
FROM NHC MAINTAINS HANNA ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING ACROSS THE                  
BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...AND EXPECT                
WINDS TO RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND BACKING FROM                  
NORTHEAST- NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF HANNA                
REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN BY FRIDAY. A STRONG               
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL ALLOW SEAS TO                     
RAPIDLY BUILD...WITH PEAKS OF 14-16 FEET LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE ON                
THURSDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED BY NORTHEAST ORIENTED                  
SWELL GENERATED BY HANNA...BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK VALUES OF SWELL                
HEIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON A FORECAST TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE                  
EAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                       
SATURDAY...BUT DID EXTEND SCA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC               
WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. A VERY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL                  
CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR               
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SWIMMING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENT REGIME ALONG SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF TROPICAL                
STORM HANNA WILL FORCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE                     
45-50 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...ALONG WITH                  
WINDY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE. HOWEVER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS                
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  80  89  74  90 / 20 20 30 30                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  76  93 / 20 20 20 20                                   
MIAMI            81  90  76  93 / 10 20 10 10                                   
NAPLES           77  92  73  89 / 10 -  -  -                                    
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-              
     AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                             
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...52/PS                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
804 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                
THE PERIOD, BUT BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY LATE ON THURSDAY                
AS HANNA MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS. ALSO, WINDS WILL                  
BECOME GUSTY DURING THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE               
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, BUT OVERALL                    
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW UNTIL HANNA MOVES CLOSER TO THE                  
NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. /TINGLER                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND RUC MODEL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS                  
INDICATE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-                     
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC                      
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TROPICAL                 
STORM HANNA OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. CONFLUENT FLOW IN                
THE MID-LEVELS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD               
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER                
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-24                       
HOURS...AND SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD                  
RAINFALL...AS PWAT VALUE ON THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMFL DROPPED                      
ABRUPTLY TO 1.54 INCHES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE FACTORS...WILL                 
INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR THE EAST COAST/ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS              
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL BE MORE                    
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED                     
SHOWERS.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...IN              
FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO                         
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV BECOME SHEARED AND                 
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIFTING              
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NORTHWARD...IN                       
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE               
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS INDICATED BY OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC...                 
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM              
HANNA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                   
EARLY FRIDAY...AS HANNA MAKES HER CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTH                     
FLORIDA. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS MOST               
OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BULK OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC                  
WATERS. HOWEVER...DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME                     
RANGE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW OUTER RAIN BANDS TO                
BE PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN LOW                   
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST                          
AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST...AND HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE                   
ATLANTIC WATERS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE                
COASTAL ZONES AND PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN ZONES FROM THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A                   
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLE                  
COASTAL FLOODING... MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON                   
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF                    
FWC/MAV/MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE                 
TREND OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST                 
COAST...GIVEN ANTICIPATION OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLEARING              
SKIES.                                                                          
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON BUILDING THE CENTRAL               
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SATURDAY                
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT               
IN A PERIOD OF BOTH PWATS AND POPS LOWER THAN CLIMO. TOWARD THE                 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL                  
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IKE...WHICH IS                    
FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...BASED ON LATEST                     
OFFICIAL TRACK FROM NHC. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME.                                 
MARINE...                                                                       
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM                   
HANNA ON THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK                  
FROM NHC MAINTAINS HANNA ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING ACROSS THE                  
BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...AND EXPECT                
WINDS TO RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND BACKING FROM                  
NORTHEAST- NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF HANNA                
REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN BY FRIDAY. A STRONG               
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL ALLOW SEAS TO                     
RAPIDLY BUILD...WITH PEAKS OF 14-16 FEET LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE ON                
THURSDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED BY NORTHEAST ORIENTED                  
SWELL GENERATED BY HANNA...BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK VALUES OF SWELL                
HEIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON A FORECAST TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE                  
EAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                       
SATURDAY...BUT DID EXTEND SCA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC               
WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. A VERY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL                  
CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR               
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SWIMMING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENT REGIME ALONG SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF TROPICAL                
STORM HANNA WILL FORCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE                     
45-50 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...ALONG WITH                  
WINDY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE. HOWEVER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS                
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  80  89  74  90 / 20 10 30 30                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  76  93 / 20 10 20 20                                   
MIAMI            81  90  76  93 / 10 10 10 10                                   
NAPLES           77  92  73  89 / 10 -  -  -                                    
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ630-AMZ650-              
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
358 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND RUC MODEL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS                  
INDICATE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-                     
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC                      
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TROPICAL                 
STORM HANNA OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. CONFLUENT FLOW IN                
THE MID-LEVELS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD               
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER                
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-24                       
HOURS...AND SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD                  
RAINFALL...AS PWAT VALUE ON THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMFL DROPPED                      
ABRUPTLY TO 1.54 INCHES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE FACTORS...WILL                 
INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR THE EAST COAST/ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS              
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL BE MORE                    
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED                     
SHOWERS.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...IN              
FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO                         
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV BECOME SHEARED AND                 
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIFTING              
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NORTHWARD...IN                       
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE               
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS INDICATED BY OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NHC...                 
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM              
HANNA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                   
EARLY FRIDAY...AS HANNA MAKES HER CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTH                     
FLORIDA. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS MOST               
OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BULK OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC                  
WATERS. HOWEVER...DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME                     
RANGE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW OUTER RAIN BANDS TO                
BE PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN LOW                   
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST                          
AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST...AND HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE                   
ATLANTIC WATERS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE                
COASTAL ZONES AND PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN ZONES FROM THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A                   
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLE                  
COASTAL FLOODING... MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON                   
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF                    
FWC/MAV/MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE                 
TREND OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST                 
COAST...GIVEN ANTICIPATION OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLEARING              
SKIES.                                                                          
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON BUILDING THE CENTRAL               
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SATURDAY                
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT               
IN A PERIOD OF BOTH PWATS AND POPS LOWER THAN CLIMO. TOWARD THE                 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL                  
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IKE...WHICH IS                    
FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...BASED ON LATEST                     
OFFICIAL TRACK FROM NHC. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM                   
HANNA ON THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK                  
FROM NHC MAINTAINS HANNA ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING ACROSS THE                  
BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...AND EXPECT                
WINDS TO RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND BACKING FROM                  
NORTHEAST- NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF HANNA                
REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN BY FRIDAY. A STRONG               
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL ALLOW SEAS TO                     
RAPIDLY BUILD...WITH PEAKS OF 14-16 FEET LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE ON                
THURSDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED BY NORTHEAST ORIENTED                  
SWELL GENERATED BY HANNA...BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK VALUES OF SWELL                
HEIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON A FORECAST TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE                  
EAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                       
SATURDAY...BUT DID EXTEND SCA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC               
WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. A VERY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL                  
CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR               
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SWIMMING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENT REGIME ALONG SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF TROPICAL                
STORM HANNA WILL FORCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE                     
45-50 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...ALONG WITH                  
WINDY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE. HOWEVER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS                
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  80  89  74  90 / 20 10 30 30                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  76  93 / 20 10 20 20                                   
MIAMI            81  90  76  93 / 10 10 10 10                                   
NAPLES           77  92  73  89 / 10 -  -  -                                    
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ630-AMZ650-              
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE 06 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 998 MB LOW CENTER (THE            
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV) NEAR TEXARKANA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE              
CAROLINAS WAS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH EAST WINDS. AN INCREASE IN THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS CAUSED AN UNEXPECTED              
SURGE IN THE EAST WINDS OVER OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS...SO SMALL                 
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR            
DATA SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV              
TO HUDSON BAY...AND TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE. ALTHOUGH CS CONTINUES TO            
STREAM OVER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...UPSTREAM RAOBS                        
(JACKSONVILLE FL) AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF DRY                
SINKING AIR IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE (UNDERNEATH THE CS OUTFLOW FROM              
GUSTAV) APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) STRONG DRYING/WARMING IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE             
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A BLEND OF              
THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AND RAW QPF FROM THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE             
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (THOUGH                  
SLIGHT) WILL BE AROUND CROSS CITY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST SEA             
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR (AS THE NORTH FL SEA BREEZE BUMPS UP              
AGAINST THE OPPOSING 1000-700 MB EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT). ANY                 
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND UNABLE TO REACH             
THE ICE GROWTH ZONE FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE             
NEAR AVERAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT                
FEEL A LITTLE MORE BEARABLE THAN THE DURING THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.             
THERE APPEARS TO BE A GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE            
IN TAKING HANNA FAR ENOUGH EAST OFF THE FL PENINSULA SO AS TO HAVE              
NO DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE WE               
WILL THROW IN SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW-END              
RAIN CHANCES...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES                  
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE STRUCTURE AND SIZE OF HANNA...IT             
MAY END UP BEING A WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THERE AS WELL.                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE TRACK GUIDANCE/OFFICIAL                     
FORECAST SHOW HANNA MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH               
CAROLINA/GEORGIA STATE LINE. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER               
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE                   
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OR RIGHT OF THIS                     
FORECAST TRACK WILL EITHER INCREASE OR DECREASE THESE CHANCES. THE              
ECMWF/NAM BOTH ARE THE TWO LEFT OUTLIERS. THE ECMWF SHOWS PLENTY                
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE                 
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HANNA CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA STATE                
LINE GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...HANNA WILL QUICKLY                  
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE NE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE                   
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES. THE CPS (CYCLONE PHASE SPACE) DIAGRAMS              
SHOW HANNA BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) AROUND THIS                  
TIME AND AS A DEEP COLD CORE SYSTEM COME EARLY NEXT WEEK.                       
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE                   
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OR THE TAIL END OF THE PREVIOUSLY             
MENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA AND DISSIPATE INTO THE START            
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL REMAIN ON THE                
TROPICS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS IKE APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS            
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...THE MODELS BEGIN            
TO SHOW QUITE LARGE DEVIATIONS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DRY AIRMASS                 
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF               
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO               
BROKEN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH                
OF THE 24 HR PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE LATEST RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL WITH A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NOCTURNAL            
WIND SURGE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT                  
FORECASTS WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME OF              
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER WIND SURGE LATE TONIGHT...SO            
WE WILL PLAY THE PERSISTENCE GAME AND FORECAST CAUTION LEVELS IN OUR            
COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL                
REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS...AND HANNA WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY                 
IMPACT ON OUR MARINE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY...AND                    
REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE WENT ON THE DRIER SIDE OF                  
GUIDANCE...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  91  69  91  69  88 /   0  10   0  10  20                           
PANAMA CITY  89  73  88  72  88 /  10  10  10   0  10                           
DOTHAN       90  69  89  68  89 /  10  10  10   0  10                           
ALBANY       90  67  90  68  90 /   0  10   0   0  20                           
VALDOSTA     90  67  90  69  85 /  10  10   0  10  30                           
CROSS CITY   91  69  91  69  86 /  20  10   0  10  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOURNIER/GIBBS/GIBBS                                                            
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
420 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                            
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND TS           
CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT UPPER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO                
MERGE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND QUICKLY            
ACCELERATE TO THE NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING.                   
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND                  
PROVIDE RATHER ROBUST LIFT. MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RATHER              
IMPRESSIVE MOMENTUM FIELDS...WHICH ARE CONFIRMED THUS FAR BY                    
PROFILER AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS. IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 60 KNOT H85 WINDS            
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL BIAS AND SHARP                  
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT OFFERED BY THIS SYSTEM. WITH 45 TO 50 KNOTS               
STILL PROGGED AT H92...STILL CONCERNED WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING                
WIND THREAT ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR...EMBEDDED IN A PREFRONTAL                  
TROUGH. AMPLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH                  
STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY RESEMBLES A DYNAMIC              
PATTERN SETUP WHERE A SQUALL LINE WOULD BE EXPECTED. DYNAMICS WITH              
SYSTEM ARE VERY AKIN TO A WINTER THIN LINE CONVECTIVE EVENT.                    
ALTHOUGH...MUCH MORE LL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WHICH WOULD HELP                  
ACCENTUATE PRECIP LOADING. ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS             
THE LACK OF A STRONG RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW...WHICH MOST LIKELY              
WOULD BE THE MISSING LINK IN SUPPORTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE                
SFC. THE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE GIVEN             
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND POOR SFC DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...STRONG              
DYNAMICS COULD OUTWEIGH POOR CAPE EFFECTS.                                      
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE NAM 12...AS IT HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND              
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSE TO SFC OBS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 310K LINES             
UP WELL WITH ONGOING PRECIP BANDS AND SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS FEATURE             
INTO THE EVENING. BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INTO THE REGION            
LATE THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE AREA. AS MENTIONED              
ABOVE...STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE...50 KNOT H5 SPEED MAX/H85 JET MAX             
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE LINE.                      
WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE                
LIGHTNING TO ONLY THE MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP                  
MIXED FAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION...BUT                
GIVEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING                      
WIND...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL                  
SOME CONCERN ON WHETHER THE LL INVERSION WOULD BE ABLE TO                       
COMPLETELY MIX OUT COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE GIVEN POOR                 
CAA AND BL FLOW...SOMETHING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW WOULD                   
LIKELY SUPPORT. HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY WITH HEAVIER CELLS               
WITH PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. GIVEN NAM THETA-E PROGS AND SFC                   
PRESSURE FALLS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF A               
SBN TO GUS LINE.                                                                
FRIDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. DRY NW FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW                 
STRATUS TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH SH THREAT ENDING FAR            
EAST. NW WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SO HAVE EXTENDED                   
THE SCA AND CFW INTO THE EVENING GIVEN FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS. LOOK              
FOR PERSISTENT CLOUDS IN THE EAST AS HANNA ADVANCES INTO SC/VA.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                 
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE PERIOD               
WITH SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH. TIMING AND PCPN                 
CHANCES WITH THESE WAVES ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.                       
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD ECMWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS. THIS IS IN GOOD            
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AND FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO                 
OVERALL FORECAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES BETWEEN MODELS WITH                
TIMING OF WAVE FOR LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND. INCREASING MID LEVEL                 
MOISTURE BUT LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP BEST PCPN CHANCES            
CONFINED TO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NEAR ACTUAL SURFACE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT BECOMES RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE SO CONFIDENCE              
LOW IN OVERALL WIDESPREAD NATURE OF PCPN. CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE             
POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE                    
TEMPERATURES. APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT                  
EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY AS DEPICTED BY ECMWF. FOLLOWED HPC LEAD AND            
NEIGHBORING OFFICES WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                
SEEM TO BE BULLISH WITH STRENGTH OF WAVES IN THESE LATER PERIODS AND            
TREND WEAKER WITH TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTAV REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DETRIMENTAL AVIATION                     
CONDITIONS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.               
LARGE AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE FA               
UNDER A LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. THIS RAIN SHIELD IS                       
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA BRINGING THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. HAVE TAILORED THIS TO             
SBN TAF...IN LINE WITH MOS AND RUC13 PROGS. AREAS OF REDUCED                    
STRATUS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE FOR A PERIOD OVER THE SE HALF OF            
THE FA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. EXPECTING SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY               
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN              
VISIBILITY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FA                       
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY              
EMBEDDED TS ALONG A SQUALL LINE. LARGE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY                 
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF SH...WITH 1 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE.               
HAVE WENT WITH A CB MENTION AT FWA AND SBN...BUT EXPECTING BEST                 
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND RESTRICTIONS TO BE AT FWA AND EAST...THIS                
INCLUDES LOWER VISIBILITY. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF TAFS UNTIL                    
BETTER TIMING AND TRACK ARE ASCERTAINED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
203 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTAV REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DETRIMENTAL AVIATION                     
CONDITIONS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.               
LARGE AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE FA               
UNDER A LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. THIS RAIN SHIELD IS                       
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA BRINGING THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. HAVE TAILORED THIS TO             
SBN TAF...IN LINE WITH MOS AND RUC13 PROGS. AREAS OF REDUCED                    
STRATUS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE FOR A PERIOD OVER THE SE HALF OF            
THE FA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. EXPECTING SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY               
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN              
VISIBILITY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FA                       
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY              
EMBEDDED TS ALONG A SQUALL LINE. LARGE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY                 
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF SH...WITH 1 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE.               
HAVE WENT WITH A CB MENTION AT FWA AND SBN...BUT EXPECTING BEST                 
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND RESTRICTIONS TO BE AT FWA AND EAST...THIS                
INCLUDES LOWER VISIBILITY. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF TAFS UNTIL                    
BETTER TIMING AND TRACK ARE ASCERTAINED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE...RAISING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD ESPECIALLY IN               
THE WEST. GUSTAV REMNANTS CONTINUING TO SHIFT NE...TAKING A TRACK               
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST MODELS ORIGINALLY HAVE PROGGED.             
THIS WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT RAIN TO INFILTRATE PART OF THE FA THIS               
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A CASSOPOLIS TO LOGANSPORT LINE. FARTHER               
EAST...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AN EAST WEST ORIENTED                       
BAND...SUPPORTED BY INCREASED LL SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER INCREASING                
LARGE SCALE LIFT...WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO THE FA SUPPORTING A SH/TS              
THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WHERE                
SOLAR INSOLATION IS ONGOING AS TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER                
80S.                                                                            
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR TODAY...TRENDING HEAVILY TO THE 12Z                     
NAM12. THIS MAINLY AFFECTS THE WEST WHERE HIGHS WERE CUT. EASTERN               
AREAS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE MID TO UPPER 80S.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MANY SOURCES OF MODEL CONTENTION THIS PD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT AND               
COMPLICATED FCST SCENARIO.                                                      
REMNANT SFC LOW CNTR ASSOCD/W GUSTAV NOW BECOMING ABSORBED INTO FNTL            
SYS ASSOCD/W STG UPSTREAM SW TROUGH ACRS SD THIS MORNING AND                    
BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD OUT OF AR WITH DOWNSTREAM PRES FALLS               
INTO NW IN SIGNALING RAPID BACKING OF THE LL FLW BEHIND YDA/S                   
SHALLOW FNTL INTRUSION. HWVR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER THIS             
MORNING QUITE POOR...CONFINED ACRS WRN IN...AND A FUNCTION OF AS YET            
FAIRLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. DILEMMA THIS MORNING LIES W/TRACK OF             
SFC WAVE AND PLACEMENT OF OLD SFC BNDRY FM YDA.                                 
OF GREAT INTEREST IS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTN NR REMNANT               
SFC BNDRY ESP IN LIGHT OF SIG LL SHEAR THAT DVLPS WITHIN MOIST/LOW              
LCL ENVIRONMENT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF SFC WAVE. CAVEAT OF              
COURSE LIES W/DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION GIVEN DEEPENING MSTR PLUME              
AND CLD DEBRIS STREAMING NEWD NOT TO MENTION STRATUS THAT HAD DVLPD             
WITHIN INCREASING LL EASTERLIES THIS MORNING. HWVR SYNOPTIC PICTURE             
.AS WAS THE CASE YDA...CERTAINLY SUGGESTS A REAL POTENTIAL THIS                 
AFTN/EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACRS NRN IN NORTHEAST OF SFC WAVE AND                 
PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD INTO NW OH. WILL WORD THREAT ACCORDINGLY IN               
HWO LATER THIS MORNING.                                                         
OTHERWISE MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TAP FOR AT LEAST                   
WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS GIVEN ALIGNING 00Z MODELS ON TRACK OF SFC WAVE               
THROUGH NW IN. DETAILS OF GFS/ECMWF CLOSE AND LARGELY BLENDED FOR               
GRIDDED DETAIL YET BOTH SEEM DEFICIENT TO SOME DEGREE W/FNTL                    
RAINBAND LATE TONIGHT AS SEEN DOWN ACRS THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LIKELY MENTION THROUGH              
NW OH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDN...SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS                 
EVENING GIVEN INTENSE LLJ DVLPMNT ALG FNTL ZONE AND SOMETHING ELSE              
TO WATCH FOR.                                                                   
BY FRI AM...SYS ALREADY INTO SRN ONT W/SFC BNDRY WELL INTO OH. DOUBT            
MUCH NEED TO HOLD POPS OUTSIDE MORNING PD IF EVEN THAT BUT GIVEN                
HELTER SKELTER MODEL SOLUTIONS LAST FEW DAYS WILL STICK W/SOME                  
MENTION YET AND IN ORDER TO FOSTER SOME CONSISTENCY AND                         
COLLABORATION W/NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL THOUGH DROP AFTN MENTION              
EXCEPT ACRS NW OH.                                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY                  
DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES              
THROUGH THE FLOW. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY               
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST TROF. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE             
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. TWEAKED RAIN            
CHANCES HIGHER GIVEN REASONABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL               
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY COOL BELOW                 
NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS SOME COOL CANADIAN AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.              
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST                
PERIOD. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR                 
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1200 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE RELEGATED POPS TO JUST S AND E OF DSM WITH EVENING UPDATE.  RUC            
305-310K ISENT SFCS KEEP BEST LIFT SE THIRD AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD               
KOTM.  WEAKER LIFT BUT STILL PERIODS OF SATURATION FARTHER TO THE N             
AND W BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT.  MODEL              
QPF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS...BUT HAVE BEEN OVERDONE                 
RECENTLY AS WELL.  SHORT TERM FORECASTS HAVE STARTED ADDING HEAVY               
RAIN WORDING FAR SE HOWEVER.  WCD STAYS AROUND 13KFT OVERNIGHT WITH             
PWS AROUND 1.75 AND STORM MOTION NO MORE THAN 15KTS.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FALL LIKE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND             
MAY BE SWEEPING THE LAST OF THE 70 DEWPOINTS FROM THE STATE UNTIL               
NEXT SPRING. GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH CURRENT            
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTHEAST             
TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST. BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD             
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH              
WITH RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI                
DEVELOPING. SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE LOW WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES              
AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15 KFT AND WEAK               
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WHICH CURRENTLY REMAINS               
BLOCKED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES                
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP                 
HIGHS UNSEASONABLY COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. GUSTAV              
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH                  
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HANNA APPROACHING FROM THE                             
SOUTHEAST...GUSTAV SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL              
ILLINOIS WITH THE RAIN AXIS CLIPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF              
IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY THOUGH                  
EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON               
THURSDAY. AREAS THAT HAVE PERSISTENT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE             
HELD IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCES PASSES THROUGH            
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER            
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF FALL LIKE AIR             
TO THE STATE. A FINAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                   
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY AND                
TUESDAY. HAVE GONE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING                
THIS PERIOD WITH MEX AND MEN VALUES BIASED TOWARDS WARMER CLIMO.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...03/06Z                                                              
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY OUT OF IOWA.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT             
HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETELY ELIMINATED...THE MENTION OF PRECIP AND                  
NON-VFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL SITES IN THE BODY OF TAF.               
PRECIP POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE                    
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...BUT THE NRN FRINGE OF GUSTAV REMNANTS WILL               
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCES GOING NEAR KOTM AND EVEN POSSIBLY KDSM                 
THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD.  THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS HOWEVER...SO RATHER              
THAN TRYING TO TIME THEM OR HAVING A PROLONGED PERIOD HAVE STARTED              
WITH VCSH AT KOTM AND LEFT KDSM DRY.  STRONGER BODY WORDING AND                 
POSSIBLY THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE PLACED AT KOTM WITH LATER ISSUANCES             
AS TIMING CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO NOT JUSTIFY            
ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...DONAVON                                                             
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FAB/BSS                                                   
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
148 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE FNT TAF SITE VICINITY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z.  IN THE                    
MEANTIME A SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN               
BORDER WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH AFTER 03Z. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION             
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW               
TRACK.                                                                          
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT                
TIGHTENS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE PASSING LOW.  HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL            
WIND SHEAR TO FNT/DET/DTW OVERNIGHT.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL              
SWING THROUGH THE DET/DTW SITES BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z WITH                         
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MVFR FOG AND IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS.  WILL HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE               
FAR WESTERN BORDERS AND LOWER THEM FURTHER EAST.  SURFACE LOW CENTER            
WHICH IS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV IS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH                 
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OH/IN.  12Z NAM IN LINE            
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF               
THE CWA.  THIS IS WHERE SHEARED OUT 500MB VORTICITY AND MID LEVEL               
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM                
GUSTAV.  SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY                      
THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT NUDGING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.                
THIS WILL KEEP MAIN PRECIP BAND BASICALLY IN THE SAME AREA WITH A               
EASTWARD EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY INTO            
THE THUMB REGION.  MOST OF THE DETROIT AREA ON SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY            
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR              
THUNDERSTORM WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE REMAINS OF `GUSTAV` NOW AS AN            
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS...WHILE AN ATTENDANT                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  DEEP                  
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL                       
CIRCULATION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD              
DEBRIS ALREADY BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN AREA OF                
SHOWERS EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF INDIANA.  IN                  
ADDITION...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER                   
RAINFALL MAINTAINING A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK...ESPECIALLY                       
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.                                               
REMNANTS OF `GUSTAV` WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE            
TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW              
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...APPROACHING              
THE OH/MI BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO IL.               
LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHEARING             
NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION.  THE PRESENCE OF THESE                 
LARGER SCALE FEATURES INDICATES FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO                   
JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE ADVECTION/MODEST ISENTROPIC ACCENT.  THE DEEPEST MOISTURE              
AXIS/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE              
AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND               
LOWEST ACROSS THE MONROE-DETROIT-PORT HURON CORRIDOR. CLOUD                     
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION WILL KEEP SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO A                   
MINIMUM...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE               
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB...SO WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER.                  
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE RESTRICTED TODAY BY THE                
PREDOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL NORTHEAST-EAST GRADIENT...WITH THE STRATUS              
LIKELY CUTTING INTO READINGS SOME DURING THE MORNING.  OVERALL...               
WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY (ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S SOUTH TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE                          
NORTH.                                                                          
LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                      
JOSTLING AMONGST THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SUITE CONTINUES IN                     
REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SET FOR TONIGHT. THIS ISN`T ALL                
THAT DISCONCERTING...SINCE THE OSCILLATORY SOLUTION BEHAVIOR                    
SUGGESTS A CONSENSUS. A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY..NOW                 
DIGGING THROUGH MONTANA...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK EJECTION TO               
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM FAR WEST              
CENTRAL INDIANA AT 00Z TONIGHT..THRU FNT/MBS...AND OFF THE TIP OF               
THE THUMB BY 12Z FRIDAY (COULD VERY WELL THEN SEE A SLIGHT DRIFT TO             
THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH LAKE HURON). HAVE                     
ACCOUNTED FOR THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT BY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF               
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/LAPEER/SANILAC COUNTIES IN THE CATEGORICAL POPS.             
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THE                       
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS BUFFER SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A WARM SECTOR DRY LAYER            
PERSISTING THROUGH 5KFT AGL. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR                       
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE NIGHTTIME            
PASSAGE AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A                    
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY (ONGOING AT 00Z) ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF             
THE SURFACE LOW WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES.                   
HOWEVER...NO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND                    
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAISED LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A              
BIT...GIVEN A MIXED COLUMN/WAA/CLOUDS 60S FOR MOST AREAS TO NEAR 70             
FOR THE METRO.                                                                  
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING...SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RAPID EXIT OF ANY            
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS A SATURATED            
PBL AND RESULTANT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY                
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH            
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST SYSTEM SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING                 
SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS. A SMALLER POCKET OF               
INSTABILITY RESIDES BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW             
FOR PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S.                        
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AND CARRIES OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG                
TERM WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGH ENERGY WESTERLY FLOW. TWO                   
SIZABLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                      
REGION...THE FIRST ON SUNDAY AND THE SECOND IN QUICK SUCCESSION                 
MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS TIMEFRAME HANDLED WELL WITH               
THE CONTINUED RAIN MENTION. HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF            
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONSISTENTLY CHECK IN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW                   
NORMAL.                                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER            
LAKE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES TODAY OVER THE FAVORED                   
LOCATIONS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY DOWN THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS              
AT PORT HURON.  WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY               
TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UPON THE APPROACH OF THE            
REMNANTS OF `GUSTAV`.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS               
CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS             
OVER 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF             
ALL MARINE AREAS INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND                    
FRIDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE HURON OPENWATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST             
BELOW GALE FORCE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  MORE FAVORABLE MARINE            
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4         
     PM FRIDAY.                                                                 
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......DRC                                                                
AVIATION.....DRC                                                                
SHORT TERM...MR                                                                 
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......MR                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
126 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT)...                                               
ISSUED NEW GRIDS AND ZFP TO INCORPORATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN MID DECK ALREADY OVERHEAD...AND HIGHER POPS                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGE COUNTIES.             
HAVE NOT GONE AS FAR AS THE 06Z GFS WITH PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY                  
MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR                
TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LVL TROF OVER SCNTRL              
CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
ERN CONUS. FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR UPR MI WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY              
FRI IS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CIRCULATING OVER ARKANSAS ATTM NOW LIFTING            
NORTH. 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN AXIS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS                
SUPPORTING EXPANSION OF RAIN INTO SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIN             
CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES.                           
TODAY...MODELS MAYBE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH REMNANTS OF                 
GUSTAV AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE...TRACKING SFC LOW THROUGH THUMB OF LWR              
MI BY 12Z. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING 800-600 MB                          
DEFORMATION/FGEN SUPPORT AS PCPN SPREADS NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND ERN             
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST PCPN EXPECTED FOR            
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI.                                                         
TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SE PORTION              
OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.               
PCPN AGAIN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN              
AND 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEFT OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING INTO            
NRN LOWER MI. MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL STAY OVER NRN               
LWR MI AND LAKE MI...BUT .50 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER             
SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES AND TAPER TO LOW CHC POPS OVER BARAGA AND IRON              
COUNTIES WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE FAR WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD.               
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST SHOULD END EARLY               
FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE              
REGION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
SHOULD BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY FRI AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF              
STILL INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF COULD BRING IN A             
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI             
NIGHT.                                                                          
SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING              
THROUGH THE UPR GREAT LAKES IN BASE OF BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP PCPN            
CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER             
IN THE DAYTIME AS MODELS STILL HAVE FCST SBCAPE VALUES OF A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG. .                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS               
THE INFLUENCE OF WHAT USE TO BE GUSTAV MOVE TO THE EAST.                        
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS OF THE HIGH MVFR                
VARIETY COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING                  
MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT FALLS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  AT SAW LOW             
END MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION                 
FALLS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CONTINUED               
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.  INCLUDED FOG AT SAW.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NE WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT STILL PERSIST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
THESE SHOULD COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS TODAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT WITH            
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE REMNANTS OF                
HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVING NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...NE                
WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 25 KT LATER TODAY            
AS GUSTAV APPROACHES. TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS MOVE NORTHEAST                  
ACROSS LOWER MI...THE NE WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH             
UNDER 20 KT...WHILE INCREASING TO 25 KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING                
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20 KT. A SURFACE IS              
EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO              
SAT...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA            
OR COLD FRONT IS PLANNED TO DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN.              
NORTH TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD                  
APPROACH 20 KT OR HIGHER...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS                  
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT AND TIMING.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS.  WILL HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE               
FAR WESTERN BORDERS AND LOWER THEM FURTHER EAST.  SURFACE LOW CENTER            
WHICH IS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV IS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH                 
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OH/IN.  12Z NAM IN LINE            
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF               
THE CWA.  THIS IS WHERE SHEARED OUT 500MB VORTICITY AND MID LEVEL               
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM                
GUSTAV.  SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY                      
THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT NUDGING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.                
THIS WILL KEEP MAIN PRECIP BAND BASICALLY IN THE SAME AREA WITH A               
EASTWARD EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY INTO            
THE THUMB REGION.  MOST OF THE DETROIT AREA ON SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY            
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR              
THUNDERSTORM WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS AT DTW/DET WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH             
MID MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.  VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A BROAD                  
CANOPY OF THICK HIGHER CLOUDINESS WILL THEN HOLD INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING HOURS FROM FNT SOUTHWARD.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN            
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM.  MBS WILL LIE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE                   
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS AT MARGINAL MVFR LEVELS WITH            
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  CONDITIONS WILL             
DETERIORATE INTO MVFR...AND POTENTIALLY IFR...BETWEEN 00-06Z AT ALL             
TERMINALS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS            
THE REGION.  WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT MBS AND              
FNT WITH A TEMPO GROUP...WHILE HOLDING OFF ON MENTIONING                        
THUNDERSTORMS YET AT THE DETROIT AIRPORTS WITH INSTABILITY RAPIDLY              
DECREASING BY THE TIME THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE REMAINS OF `GUSTAV` NOW AS AN            
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS...WHILE AN ATTENDANT                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  DEEP                  
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL                       
CIRCULATION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD              
DEBRIS ALREADY BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN AREA OF                
SHOWERS EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF INDIANA.  IN                  
ADDITION...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER                   
RAINFALL MAINTAINING A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK...ESPECIALLY                       
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.                                               
REMNANTS OF `GUSTAV` WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE            
TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW              
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...APPROACHING              
THE OH/MI BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO IL.               
LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHEARING             
NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION.  THE PRESENCE OF THESE                 
LARGER SCALE FEATURES INDICATES FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO                   
JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE ADVECTION/MODEST ISENTROPIC ACCENT.  THE DEEPEST MOISTURE              
AXIS/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE              
AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND               
LOWEST ACROSS THE MONROE-DETROIT-PORT HURON CORRIDOR. CLOUD                     
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION WILL KEEP SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO A                   
MINIMUM...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE               
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB...SO WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER.                  
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE RESTRICTED TODAY BY THE                
PREDOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL NORTHEAST-EAST GRADIENT...WITH THE STRATUS              
LIKELY CUTTING INTO READINGS SOME DURING THE MORNING.  OVERALL...               
WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY (ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S SOUTH TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE                          
NORTH.                                                                          
LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                      
JOSTLING AMONGST THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SUITE CONTINUES IN                     
REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SET FOR TONIGHT. THIS ISN`T ALL                
THAT DISCONCERTING...SINCE THE OSCILLATORY SOLUTION BEHAVIOR                    
SUGGESTS A CONSENSUS. A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY..NOW                 
DIGGING THROUGH MONTANA...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK EJECTION TO               
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM FAR WEST              
CENTRAL INDIANA AT 00Z TONIGHT..THRU FNT/MBS...AND OFF THE TIP OF               
THE THUMB BY 12Z FRIDAY (COULD VERY WELL THEN SEE A SLIGHT DRIFT TO             
THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH LAKE HURON). HAVE                     
ACCOUNTED FOR THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT BY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF               
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/LAPEER/SANILAC COUNTIES IN THE CATEGORICAL POPS.             
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THE                       
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS BUFFER SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A WARM SECTOR DRY LAYER            
PERSISTING THROUGH 5KFT AGL. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR                       
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE NIGHTTIME            
PASSAGE AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A                    
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY (ONGOING AT 00Z) ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF             
THE SURFACE LOW WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES.                   
HOWEVER...NO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND                    
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAISED LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A              
BIT...GIVEN A MIXED COLUMN/WAA/CLOUDS 60S FOR MOST AREAS TO NEAR 70             
FOR THE METRO.                                                                  
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING...SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RAPID EXIT OF ANY            
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS A SATURATED            
PBL AND RESULTANT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY                
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH            
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST SYSTEM SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING                 
SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS. A SMALLER POCKET OF               
INSTABILITY RESIDES BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW             
FOR PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S.                        
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AND CARRIES OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG                
TERM WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGH ENERGY WESTERLY FLOW. TWO                   
SIZABLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                      
REGION...THE FIRST ON SUNDAY AND THE SECOND IN QUICK SUCCESSION                 
MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS TIMEFRAME HANDLED WELL WITH               
THE CONTINUED RAIN MENTION. HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF            
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONSISTENTLY CHECK IN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW                   
NORMAL.                                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER            
LAKE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES TODAY OVER THE FAVORED                   
LOCATIONS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY DOWN THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS              
AT PORT HURON.  WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY               
TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UPON THE APPROACH OF THE            
REMNANTS OF `GUSTAV`.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS               
CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS             
OVER 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF             
ALL MARINE AREAS INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND                    
FRIDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE HURON OPENWATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST             
BELOW GALE FORCE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  MORE FAVORABLE MARINE            
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4         
     PM FRIDAY.                                                                 
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......DRC                                                                
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MR                                                                 
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......MR                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
952 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED NEW GRIDS AND ZFP TO INCORPORATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN MID DECK ALREADY OVERHEAD...AND HIGHER POPS                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGE COUNTIES.             
HAVE NOT GONE AS FAR AS THE 06Z GFS WITH PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY                  
MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR                
TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LVL TROF OVER SCNTRL              
CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
ERN CONUS. FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR UPR MI WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY              
FRI IS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CIRCULATING OVER ARKANSAS ATTM NOW LIFTING            
NORTH. 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN AXIS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS                
SUPPORTING EXPANSION OF RAIN INTO SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIN             
CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES.                           
TODAY...MODELS MAYBE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH REMNANTS OF                 
GUSTAV AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE...TRACKING SFC LOW THROUGH THUMB OF LWR              
MI BY 12Z. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING 800-600 MB                          
DEFORMATION/FGEN SUPPORT AS PCPN SPREADS NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND ERN             
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST PCPN EXPECTED FOR            
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI.                                                         
TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SE PORTION              
OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.               
PCPN AGAIN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN              
AND 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEFT OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING INTO            
NRN LOWER MI. MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL STAY OVER NRN               
LWR MI AND LAKE MI...BUT .50 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER             
SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES AND TAPER TO LOW CHC POPS OVER BARAGA AND IRON              
COUNTIES WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE FAR WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD.               
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST SHOULD END EARLY               
FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE              
REGION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
SHOULD BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY FRI AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF              
STILL INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF COULD BRING IN A             
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI             
NIGHT.                                                                          
SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING              
THROUGH THE UPR GREAT LAKES IN BASE OF BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP PCPN            
CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER             
IN THE DAYTIME AS MODELS STILL HAVE FCST SBCAPE VALUES OF A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG. .                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                 
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS OF THE HIGH MVFR                
VARIETY COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING                  
MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT FALLS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                         
AT KSAW...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD FORM BRIEFLY AT KSAW AS A COOL             
AIRMASS FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR UPSLOPES INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI.             
DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING               
WILL GET RID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...REMNANTS             
OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE LIFTING INTO LOWER MI. WRN            
FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BRUSH KSAW. IF SO...CONDITIONS WILL                   
DETERIORATE TO LOW END MVFR (POSSIBLE IFR) THIS EVENING. IF RAIN                
DOESN`T REACH KSAW...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR OR ONLY DROP             
TO UPPER END MVFR CIGS. THIS FCST CONTINUES TO REFLECT PESSIMISTIC              
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTN/EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD             
EXIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS A NE                
WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN IFR DECK. HOWEVER...IF THE RAIN DOES              
MATERIALIZE...LIFR CLOUD BASES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE                     
QUESTION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NE WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT STILL PERSIST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
THESE SHOULD COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS TODAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT WITH            
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE REMNANTS OF                
HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVING NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...NE                
WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 25 KT LATER TODAY            
AS GUSTAV APPROACHES. TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS MOVE NORTHEAST                  
ACROSS LOWER MI...THE NE WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH             
UNDER 20 KT...WHILE INCREASING TO 25 KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING                
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20 KT. A SURFACE IS              
EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO              
SAT...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA            
OR COLD FRONT IS PLANNED TO DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN.              
NORTH TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD                  
APPROACH 20 KT OR HIGHER...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS                  
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT AND TIMING.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/AJ                                                           
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
739 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LVL TROF OVER SCNTRL              
CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
ERN CONUS. FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR UPR MI WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY              
FRI IS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CIRCULATING OVER ARKANSAS ATTM NOW LIFTING            
NORTH. 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN AXIS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS                
SUPPORTING EXPANSION OF RAIN INTO SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIN             
CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES.                           
TODAY...MODELS MAYBE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH REMNANTS OF                 
GUSTAV AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE...TRACKING SFC LOW THROUGH THUMB OF LWR              
MI BY 12Z. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING 800-600 MB                          
DEFORMATION/FGEN SUPPORT AS PCPN SPREADS NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND ERN             
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST PCPN EXPECTED FOR            
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI.                                                         
TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SE PORTION              
OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.               
PCPN AGAIN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN              
AND 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEFT OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING INTO            
NRN LOWER MI. MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL STAY OVER NRN               
LWR MI AND LAKE MI...BUT .50 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER             
SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES AND TAPER TO LOW CHC POPS OVER BARAGA AND IRON              
COUNTIES WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE FAR WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD.               
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST SHOULD END EARLY               
FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE              
REGION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
SHOULD BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY FRI AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF              
STILL INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF COULD BRING IN A             
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI             
NIGHT.                                                                          
SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING              
THROUGH THE UPR GREAT LAKES IN BASE OF BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP PCPN            
CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER             
IN THE DAYTIME AS MODELS STILL HAVE FCST SBCAPE VALUES OF A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG. .                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                 
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS OF THE HIGH MVFR                
VARIETY COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING                  
MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT FALLS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                         
AT KSAW...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD FORM BRIEFLY AT KSAW AS A COOL             
AIRMASS FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR UPSLOPES INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI.             
DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING               
WILL GET RID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...REMNANTS             
OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE LIFTING INTO LOWER MI. WRN            
FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BRUSH KSAW. IF SO...CONDITIONS WILL                   
DETERIORATE TO LOW END MVFR (POSSIBLE IFR) THIS EVENING. IF RAIN                
DOESN`T REACH KSAW...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR OR ONLY DROP             
TO UPPER END MVFR CIGS. THIS FCST CONTINUES TO REFLECT PESSIMISTIC              
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTN/EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD             
EXIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS A NE                
WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN IFR DECK. HOWEVER...IF THE RAIN DOES              
MATERIALIZE...LIFR CLOUD BASES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE                     
QUESTION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NE WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT STILL PERSIST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
THESE SHOULD COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS TODAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT WITH            
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE REMNANTS OF                
HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVING NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...NE                
WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 25 KT LATER TODAY            
AS GUSTAV APPROACHES. TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS MOVE NORTHEAST                  
ACROSS LOWER MI...THE NE WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH             
UNDER 20 KT...WHILE INCREASING TO 25 KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING                
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20 KT. A SURFACE IS              
EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO              
SAT...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA            
OR COLD FRONT IS PLANNED TO DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN.              
NORTH TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD                  
APPROACH 20 KT OR HIGHER...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS                  
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT AND TIMING.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/AJ                                                           
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
709 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS AT DTW/DET WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH             
MID MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.  VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A BROAD                  
CANOPY OF THICK HIGHER CLOUDINESS WILL THEN HOLD INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING HOURS FROM FNT SOUTHWARD.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN            
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM.  MBS WILL LIE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE                   
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS AT MARGINAL MVFR LEVELS WITH            
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.  CONDITIONS WILL             
DETERIOTE INTO MVFR...AND POTENTIALLY IFR...BETWEEN 00-06Z AT ALL               
TERMINALS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS            
THE REGION.  WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT MBS AND              
FNT WITH A TEMPO GROUP...WHILE HOLDING OFF ON MENTIONING                        
THUNDERSTORMS YET AT THE DETROIT AIRPORTS WITH INSTABILITY RAPIDLY              
DECREASING BY THE TIME THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVES.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE REMAINS OF `GUSTAV` NOW AS AN            
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS...WHILE AN ATTENDANT                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  DEEP                  
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL                       
CIRCULATION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD              
DEBRIS ALREADY BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN AREA OF                
SHOWERS EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF INDIANA.  IN                  
ADDITION...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER                   
RAINFALL MAINTAINING A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK...ESPECIALLY                       
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.                                               
REMNANTS OF `GUSTAV` WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE            
TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW              
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...APPROACHING              
THE OH/MI BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO IL.               
LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHEARING             
NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION.  THE PRESENCE OF THESE                 
LARGER SCALE FEATURES INDICATES FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO                   
JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE ADVECTION/MODEST ISENTROPIC ACCENT.  THE DEEPEST MOISTURE              
AXIS/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE              
AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND               
LOWEST ACROSS THE MONROE-DETROIT-PORT HURON CORRIDOR. CLOUD                     
COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION WILL KEEP SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO A                   
MINIMUM...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE               
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB...SO WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER.                  
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE RESTRICTED TODAY BY THE                
PREDOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL NORTHEAST-EAST GRADIENT...WITH THE STRATUS              
LIKELY CUTTING INTO READINGS SOME DURING THE MORNING.  OVERALL...               
WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY (ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S SOUTH TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE                          
NORTH.                                                                          
LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                      
JOSTLING AMONGST THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SUITE CONTINUES IN                     
REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SET FOR TONIGHT. THIS ISN`T ALL                
THAT DISCONCERTING...SINCE THE OSCILLATORY SOLUTION BEHAVIOR                    
SUGGESTS A CONSENSUS. A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY..NOW                 
DIGGING THROUGH MONTANA...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK EJECTION TO               
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM FAR WEST              
CENTRAL INDIANA AT 00Z TONIGHT..THRU FNT/MBS...AND OFF THE TIP OF               
THE THUMB BY 12Z FRIDAY (COULD VERY WELL THEN SEE A SLIGHT DRIFT TO             
THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH LAKE HURON). HAVE                     
ACCOUNTED FOR THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT BY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF               
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/LAPEER/SANILAC COUNTIES IN THE CATEGORICAL POPS.             
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THE                       
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS BUFFER SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A WARM SECTOR DRY LAYER            
PERSISTING THROUGH 5KFT AGL. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR                       
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE NIGHTTIME            
PASSAGE AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A                    
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY (ONGOING AT 00Z) ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF             
THE SURFACE LOW WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES.                   
HOWEVER...NO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE DRY GROUND AND                    
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAISED LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A              
BIT...GIVEN A MIXED COLUMN/WAA/CLOUDS 60S FOR MOST AREAS TO NEAR 70             
FOR THE METRO.                                                                  
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING...SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RAPID EXIT OF ANY            
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS A SATURATED            
PBL AND RESULTANT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY                
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH            
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST SYSTEM SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING                 
SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS. A SMALLER POCKET OF               
INSTABILITY RESIDES BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW             
FOR PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S.                        
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AND CARRIES OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG                
TERM WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGH ENERGY WESTERLY FLOW. TWO                   
SIZABLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                      
REGION...THE FIRST ON SUNDAY AND THE SECOND IN QUICK SUCCESSION                 
MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS TIMEFRAME HANDLED WELL WITH               
THE CONTINUED RAIN MENTION. HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF            
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONSISTENTLY CHECK IN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW                   
NORMAL.                                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER            
LAKE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WAVES TODAY OVER THE FAVORED                   
LOCATIONS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY DOWN THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS              
AT PORT HURON.  WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY               
TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UPON THE APPROACH OF THE            
REMNANTS OF `GUSTAV`.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS               
CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS             
OVER 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF             
ALL MARINE AREAS INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND                    
FRIDAY.  WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE HURON OPENWATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST             
BELOW GALE FORCE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  MORE FAVORABLE MARINE            
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4         
     PM FRIDAY.                                                                 
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MR                                                                 
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......MR                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LVL TROF OVER SCNTRL              
CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
ERN CONUS. FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR UPR MI WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY              
FRI IS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV CIRCULATING OVER ARKANSAS ATTM NOW LIFTING            
NORTH. 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN AXIS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS                
SUPPORTING EXPANSION OF RAIN INTO SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIN             
CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES.                           
TODAY...MODELS MAYBE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH REMNANTS OF                 
GUSTAV AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE...TRACKING SFC LOW THROUGH THUMB OF LWR              
MI BY 12Z. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING 800-600 MB                          
DEFORMATION/FGEN SUPPORT AS PCPN SPREADS NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND ERN             
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST PCPN EXPECTED FOR            
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI.                                                         
TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT WIDEPSREAD RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SE PORTION              
OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.               
PCPN AGAIN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN              
AND 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEFT OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING INTO            
NRN LOWER MI. MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL STAY OVER NRN               
LWR MI AND LAKE MI...BUT .50 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER             
SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES AND TAPER TO LOW CHC POPS OVER BARAGA AND IRON              
COUNTIES WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE FAR WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD.               
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST SHOULD END EARLY               
FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE              
REGION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
SHOULD BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY FRI AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF              
STILL INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF COULD BRING IN A             
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI             
NIGHT.                                                                          
SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING              
THROUGH THE UPR GREAT LAKES IN BASE OF BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP PCPN            
CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER             
IN THE DAYTIME AS MODELS STILL HAVE FCST SBCAPE VALUES OF A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG. .                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                 
EARLY THIS MORNING...COOL AIRMASS FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND              
UPSLOPING INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT            
KSAW FOR A FEW HRS AROUND SUNRISE. REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE                    
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL THEN BE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
EVENING. WRN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY BRUSH KSAW. IF SO...                     
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LOW END MVFR (POSSIBLE IFR) THIS                 
EVENING. IF RAIN DOESN`T REACH KSAW...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN             
VFR OR ONLY DROP TO UPPER END MVFR CIGS. THIS FCST WILL REFLECT                 
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS WITH RAIN DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTN/EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NE WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT STILL PERSIST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
THESE SHOULD COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS TODAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT WITH            
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE REMANTS OF                 
HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVING NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...NE                
WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 25 KT LATER TODAY            
AS GUSTAV APPROACHES. TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS MOVE NORTHEAST                  
ACROSS LOWER MI...THE NE WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH             
UNDER 20 KT...WHILE INCREASING TO 25 KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING                
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20 KT. A SURFACE IS              
EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO              
SAT...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA            
OR COLD FRONT IS PLANNED TO DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN.              
NORTH TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD                  
APPROACH 20 KT OR HIGHER...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS                  
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT AND TIMING.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO THE               
NRN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV STILL CIRCULATING             
OVER THE TX/ARK BORDER WHILE TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS ORGANIZING                 
NORTH OF HAITI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY                
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH ERN UPR MI. CONVECTION                
FROM LAST EVENING ALONG THE FRONT HAS NOW EXITED EAST OF THE FCST               
AREA ALTHOUGH STRATUS CLOUDS LINGER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT              
EXTENDING FROM UPR MI BACK INTO NRN MN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BIG FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHC OF PCPN OVER THE FCST AREA           
LATE THU INTO FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT NORTH ALONG FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST.                                                
TODAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD OVER UPR GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE             
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO                
LOWER 70S ALONG LAKE MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE 4C-7C RANGE.              
SC DECK MAY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT LEAST INTO             
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THEN GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT WITH INCREASINGLY                  
ANTICYCLONIC DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST.                            
TONIGHT...MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL                
STAY NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE FCST AREA UNDER A GENERAL NE               
FLOW. MODEL SNDGS ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN              
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS TOWARD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE              
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS DECIDED TO                
REMOVE FOG AND FROST FROM THE FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BUMP             
UP TEMPS A DEGREE OF TWO. UPR 30S HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE               
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF THE WRN INTERIOR.                                     
THU...00Z GFS HAS NOW TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO CONSISTENT ECMWF                  
SOLN OF THE PAST FEW RUNS BRINGING REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NORTH ALONG               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST THU INTO THU NIGHT.                     
GENERALLY HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS A               
BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN SHIELD NORTH INTO DRIER AIRMASS ASSOC               
WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH. FARTHER WEST SOLN OF THE NAM APPEARS TO BE              
AN OUTLIER AND HAVE DISGARDED IT...ALTHOUGH IF RIDGING BECOMES MORE             
PROMINENT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF HANNA...A MORE WESTWARD                
SOLN MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THU WILL BE COOL                
AGAIN WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS              
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BROUGHT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO FAR               
SCNTRL ZONES WITH INCREASINGLY MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED             
ON 300K SFC.                                                                    
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS OVER ERN HALF OF                
FCST AREA THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFT NORTHEAST               
INTO SW LOWER MI BY 12Z FRI. PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER                
FAR ERN UPR MI TAPERING TO LOW CHC POPS OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES ON THE             
FRINGE OF BEST LIFT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SOME                  
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA FRI MORNING SO KEPT IN             
SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FROM              
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR/VFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES THANKS TO NW WINDS              
AND LL MOISTURE.  AFTER LOWER CLOUDS MIX OUT LATE THIS                          
AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REAPPEAR AGAIN...PARTICULARLY AT SAW.             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF MORE THAN SCT IS NEEDED.  AFTER 15Z...HIGH              
CLOUDS WILL THEN FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEST TO NW WINDS KICKED UP AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT               
MOVED ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS BTWN 20-30 KT. THESE                 
STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MRNG...THEN DIMINISH WEST             
TO EAST THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS BUILDS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 20 KT                
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU MRNG. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS              
EXPETED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH FRI...WHILE            
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI. NE WINDS BETWEEN THE               
TWO PRESSURE AREAS COULD APPROACH 20 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU            
EVNG AND ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI. AFTER FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE             
BACK DOWN TO UNDER 20 KT. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A LOW PRESSURE                
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. IF A              
LOW MOVES UP ALONG THIS TROUGH...THE N TO NE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR             
COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE SUN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
742 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO THE               
NRN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV STILL CIRCULATING             
OVER THE TX/ARK BORDER WHILE TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS ORGANIZING                 
NORTH OF HAITI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY                
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH ERN UPR MI. CONVECTION                
FROM LAST EVENING ALONG THE FRONT HAS NOW EXITED EAST OF THE FCST               
AREA ALTHOUGH STRATUS CLOUDS LINGER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT              
EXTENDING FROM UPR MI BACK INTO NRN MN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BIG FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHC OF PCPN OVER THE FCST AREA           
LATE THU INTO FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT NORTH ALONG FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST.                                                
TODAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD OVER UPR GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE             
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO                
LOWER 70S ALONG LAKE MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE 4C-7C RANGE.              
SC DECK MAY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT LEAST INTO             
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THEN GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT WITH INCREASINGLY                  
ANTICYCLONIC DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST.                            
TONIGHT...MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL                
STAY NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE FCST AREA UNDER A GENERAL NE               
FLOW. MODEL SNDGS ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN              
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS TOWARD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE              
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS DECIDED TO                
REMOVE FOG AND FROST FROM THE FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BUMP             
UP TEMPS A DEGREE OF TWO. UPR 30S HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE               
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF THE WRN INTERIOR.                                     
THU...00Z GFS HAS NOW TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO CONSISTENT ECMWF                  
SOLN OF THE PAST FEW RUNS BRINGING REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NORTH ALONG               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST THU INTO THU NIGHT.                     
GENERALLY HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS A               
BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN SHIELD NORTH INTO DRIER AIRMASS ASSOC               
WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH. FARTHER WEST SOLN OF THE NAM APPEARS TO BE              
AN OUTLIER AND HAVE DISGARDED IT...ALTHOUGH IF RIDGING BECOMES MORE             
PROMINENT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF HANNA...A MORE WESTWARD                
SOLN MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THU WILL BE COOL                
AGAIN WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS              
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BROUGHT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO FAR               
SCNTRL ZONES WITH INCREASINGLY MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED             
ON 300K SFC.                                                                    
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS OVER ERN HALF OF                
FCST AREA THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFT NORTHEAST               
INTO SW LOWER MI BY 12Z FRI. PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER                
FAR ERN UPR MI TAPERING TO LOW CHC POPS OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES ON THE             
FRINGE OF BEST LIFT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SOME                  
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA FRI MORNING SO KEPT IN             
SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FROM              
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
BATCH OF MVFR/VFR CIG CLOUDS OVER NRN MN...ASSOCIATED WITH TRAPPED              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DISAPPEAR AS THEY CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BUT THEN             
REAPPEAR OVER UPPER MI AND ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING BOTH TAF SITES.              
LOOK FOR MVFR/VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES THIS                
MRNG AS NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF             
NRN MN. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING CIGS TO VFR...AND               
LIKELY SCT OR CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT THROUGH THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT             
CMX WITH LAKE STABILIZATION AIDING IN THE PROCESS. TONIGHT...AM                 
UNCERTAIN IF LOW CLOUDS WILL REAPPEAR AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH A NE              
WIND DEVELOPING AND INLAND AREAS COOLING OFF. GREATEST CONCERN WOULD            
BE AT SAW SINCE NE WINDS UPSLOPE. FOR NOW HAVE HINTED AT THIS                   
POSSIBILITY WITH A SCT DECK...BUT LATER FCSTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH.               
OTHER CONCERN IS THE GUSTY WINDS AT CMX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN GUSTY THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTN...DUE TO FUNNELING FLOW AND               
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME. HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING IN LATE WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEST TO NW WINDS KICKED UP AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT               
MOVED ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS BTWN 20-30 KT. THESE                 
STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MRNG...THEN DIMINISH WEST             
TO EAST THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS BUILDS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 20 KT                
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU MRNG. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS              
EXPETED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH FRI...WHILE            
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI. NE WINDS BETWEEN THE               
TWO PRESSURE AREAS COULD APPROACH 20 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU            
EVNG AND ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI. AFTER FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE             
BACK DOWN TO UNDER 20 KT. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A LOW PRESSURE                
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. IF A              
LOW MOVES UP ALONG THIS TROUGH...THE N TO NE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR             
COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE SUN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
439 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO THE               
NRN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV STILL CIRCULATING             
OVER THE TX/ARK BORDER WHILE TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS ORGANIZING                 
NORTH OF HAITI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY                
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH ERN UPR MI. CONVECTION                
FROM LAST EVENING ALONG THE FRONT HAS NOW EXITED EAST OF THE FCST               
AREA ALTHOUGH STRATUS CLOUDS LINGER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT              
EXTENDING FROM UPR MI BACK INTO NRN MN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BIG FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHC OF PCPN OVER THE FCST AREA           
LATE THU INTO FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT NORTH ALONG FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST.                                                
TODAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD OVER UPR GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE             
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO                
LOWER 70S ALONG LAKE MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE 4C-7C RANGE.              
SC DECK MAY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT LEAST INTO             
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THEN GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT WITH INCREASINGLY                  
ANTICYCLONIC DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST.                            
TONIGHT...MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL                
STAY NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE FCST AREA UNDER A GENERAL NE               
FLOW. MODEL SNDGS ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN              
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF GUSTAV REMNANTS TOWARD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE              
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS DECIDED TO                
REMOVE FOG AND FROST FROM THE FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BUMP             
UP TEMPS A DEGREE OF TWO. UPR 30S HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE               
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF THE WRN INTERIOR.                                     
THU...00Z GFS HAS NOW TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO CONSISTENT ECMWF                  
SOLN OF THE PAST FEW RUNS BRINGING REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NORTH ALONG               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST THU INTO THU NIGHT.                     
GENERALLY HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS A               
BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN SHIELD NORTH INTO DRIER AIRMASS ASSOC               
WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH. FARTHER WEST SOLN OF THE NAM APPEARS TO BE              
AN OUTLIER AND HAVE DISGARDED IT...ALTHOUGH IF RIDGING BECOMES MORE             
PROMINENT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF HANNA...A MORE WESTWARD                
SOLN MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THU WILL BE COOL                
AGAIN WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS              
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BROUGHT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO FAR               
SCNTRL ZONES WITH INCREASINGLY MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED             
ON 300K SFC.                                                                    
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS OVER ERN HALF OF                
FCST AREA THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFT NORTHEAST               
INTO SW LOWER MI BY 12Z FRI. PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER                
FAR ERN UPR MI TAPERING TO LOW CHC POPS OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES ON THE             
FRINGE OF BEST LIFT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SOME                  
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA FRI MORNING SO KEPT IN             
SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FROM              
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AT CMX...BUT MVFR TO VFR CIGS STILL EXIST AT             
SAW. CIGS AT SAW SHOULD COME UP TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AS             
CLEARING MOVES IN THERE. NEXT CONCERN IS MVFR CLOUDS SEEN OVER NRN              
MN. SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS                      
MRNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO RATHER             
THAN GOING PREDOMINANT. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AT CMX AS LAKE              
STABILIZATION COMES INTO PLAY LATER THIS AFTN. CLOUDS MAY HANG                  
AROUND SAW THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT LIKELY MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTN            
AND CLIMBING TO VFR...ASSUMING THAT MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE                
MRNG. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST             
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
OTHER CONCERN IS THE GUSTY WINDS AT CMX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN GUSTY THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTN...DUE TO FUNNELING FLOW AND               
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME. HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING IN LATE WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEST TO NW WINDS KICKED UP AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT               
MOVED ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS BTWN 20-30 KT. THESE                 
STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MRNG...THEN DIMINISH WEST             
TO EAST THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS BUILDS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 20 KT                
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU MRNG. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS              
EXPETED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH FRI...WHILE            
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI. NE WINDS BETWEEN THE               
TWO PRESSURE AREAS COULD APPROACH 20 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU            
EVNG AND ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI. AFTER FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE             
BACK DOWN TO UNDER 20 KT. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A LOW PRESSURE                
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. IF A              
LOW MOVES UP ALONG THIS TROUGH...THE N TO NE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR             
COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE SUN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
139 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN                 
LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO (VCNTY                
CYPL) WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH NE MN AND WRN WI.                  
SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACRS WRN UPPER            
MI IN AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG WHERE CAP HAS               
WEAKENED. MORE NMRS SHRA/TSRA WERE MOVING THROUGH NW WI JUST AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT IN AREA OF 900-800 MB FGEN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                           
EXPECT THE BAND OF SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MI                   
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SO...GOING LIKELY POPS             
STILL LOOK ON TRACK EVEN THOUGH AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN (GREATER THAN             
A HALF INCH) MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.  SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE               
VALUES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IF LINE SEGMENT OF TSTMS DEVELOP                   
PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WIND AS WAS OBSERVED THROUGH NW WI EARLIER            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE             
60S AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE 5C-8C RANGE COMPARED TO VALUES                
NEAR 19C TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER ND               
AND MN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY TO THE NE WITH ACYC DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL               
FLOW LIKELY KEEPING SCT CU/SC OVER UPPER MI.                                    
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...POSSIBILITY OF                  
PATCHY FOG AND/OR FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.                 
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500 MB TROUGH.            
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE INFLUX              
OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF            
GUSTAV WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE TRI-STATE            
REGION.  IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SLIDES NORTH              
ALONG THE FRONT AND TO INDIANA BY 12Z FRIDAY.  FORECAST WISE...HAVE             
OPTED FOR A CONTINUED SOUTHERN TRACK TO THIS FEATURE...KEEPING MUCH             
OF UPPER MICHIGAN DRY.                                                          
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MAKE A CROSSING OVER LAKE              
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  AS            
A RESULT...IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO HPC            
GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 4/SATURDAY THROUGH 7/TUESDAY.  THIS WAS MAINLY THE            
ECMWF.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AT CMX...BUT MVFR TO VFR CIGS STILL EXIST AT             
SAW. CIGS AT SAW SHOULD COME UP TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AS             
CLEARING MOVES IN THERE. NEXT CONCERN IS MVFR CLOUDS SEEN OVER NRN              
MN. SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS                      
MRNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO RATHER             
THAN GOING PREDOMINANT. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AT CMX AS LAKE              
STABILIZATION COMES INTO PLAY LATER THIS AFTN. CLOUDS MAY HANG                  
AROUND SAW THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT LIKELY MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTN            
AND CLIMBING TO VFR...ASSUMING THAT MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE                
MRNG. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST             
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
OTHER CONCERN IS THE GUSTY WINDS AT CMX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN GUSTY THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTN...DUE TO FUNNELING FLOW AND               
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME. HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING IN LATE WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY WEST AND            
GUST TO 30 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                   
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW WAVES TO BRIEFLY BUILD             
TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIE OFF WELL              
BLO 20 KT LATE WED NIGHT AND GENERALLY STAY THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY              
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1034 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR                         
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRATOCU DECK HAS                  
SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE SOUTH               
SHORE...WHILE DIURNAL CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. EXPECTED               
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT                
PUSHING TO THE EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...ITS UPPER LOW IS               
SLUGGISHLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE                 
HAS WORKED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES                 
OVER MUCH OF NE MN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS                
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.                     
THE NAM12 AND RUC40 SUGGEST THAT SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY                    
STRATOCU...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY               
FROM THE BORDERLAND AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD...BEFORE DECREASING                  
AFTER 18Z AS DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION                
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...SOME HIGH AND               
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AREA THIS                  
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR CURRENTLY                  
WORKING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD                
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.                                                      
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER...WITH MAXES                     
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. 85H TEMPS OF 2-4C AT 12Z TODAY WILL ONLY                  
WARM TO 3C-6C THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS                             
ALOFT...EXPECTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH                      
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE NAM12 CU RULE PAINTING VALUES OF -2 TO               
-3 OVER PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.                                
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD                  
GET QUITE COOL IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALSO FAVOR A                 
NORTHEAST FLOW...WHICH COULD ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL               
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE. AREAS THAT REMAIN                 
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S. HAVE                     
MENTIONED AREAS OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND AND                      
ARROWHEAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                                    
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS                
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO                
OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TS GUSTAV ADVANCE NORTH               
INTO IOWA. HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON FOR OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES. WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS                   
SKIRT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SOME LIGHT QPF THURSDAY NIGHT                
INTO FRIDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO                 
THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM HAS BACKED OFF WITH ITS                      
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF QPF. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT POPS FOR                     
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF               
THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.                              
GIVEN SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY                 
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER...WITH ONSHORE                            
FLOW...TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY NEAR THE LAKE. BUMPED                 
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH                         
SHORE...BUT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.                               
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE                  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST                     
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...SO NOT                 
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST                
POPS IN OUR NW ZONES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO RATHER                    
WEAK...WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES ONLY APPROACHING               
ZERO...SO THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS SEEMS QUITE REMOTE.                      
A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO                
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL                   
SHORTWAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW VFR CEILINGS COVERED PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH AREAS               
OF MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WERE MAINLY SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST                   
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND DECREASE IN                  
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING                  
INTO THE REGION AND HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT                
ARE COLD...SO EXPECT CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND                
AFTERNOON...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE                      
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PATCHY FOG WILL                
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.                          
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  64  43  62  45 /  10   0  10  10                                           
INL  63  39  67  43 /  10   0  10  20                                           
BRD  65  43  70  45 /  10   0  10  10                                           
HYR  68  38  67  43 /  10   0  10  10                                           
ASX  63  41  65  44 /  10   0  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-             
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
$$                                                                              
LILES                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
343 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT                
PUSHING TO THE EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...ITS UPPER LOW IS               
SLUGGISHLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE                 
HAS WORKED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES                 
OVER MUCH OF NE MN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS                
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.                     
THE NAM12 AND RUC40 SUGGEST THAT SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY                    
STRATOCU...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY               
FROM THE BORDERLAND AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD...BEFORE DECREASING                  
AFTER 18Z AS DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION                
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...SOME HIGH AND               
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AREA THIS                  
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR CURRENTLY                  
WORKING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD                
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.                                                      
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER...WITH MAXES                     
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. 85H TEMPS OF 2-4C AT 12Z TODAY WILL ONLY                  
WARM TO 3C-6C THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS                             
ALOFT...EXPECTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH                      
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE NAM12 CU RULE PAINTING VALUES OF -2 TO               
-3 OVER PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.                                
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD                  
GET QUITE COOL IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALSO FAVOR A                 
NORTHEAST FLOW...WHICH COULD ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL               
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE. AREAS THAT REMAIN                 
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S. HAVE                     
MENTIONED AREAS OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND AND                      
ARROWHEAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                                    
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS                
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO                
OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TS GUSTAV ADVANCE NORTH               
INTO IOWA. HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON FOR OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES. WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS                   
SKIRT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SOME LIGHT QPF THURSDAY NIGHT                
INTO FRIDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO                 
THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM HAS BACKED OFF WITH ITS                      
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF QPF. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT POPS FOR                     
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF               
THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.                              
GIVEN SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY                 
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER...WITH ONSHORE                            
FLOW...TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY NEAR THE LAKE. BUMPED                 
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH                         
SHORE...BUT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.                               
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE                  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST                     
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...SO NOT                 
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST                
POPS IN OUR NW ZONES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO RATHER                    
WEAK...WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES ONLY APPROACHING               
ZERO...SO THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS SEEMS QUITE REMOTE.                      
A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO                
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL                   
SHORTWAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW VFR CEILINGS COVERED PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH AREAS               
OF MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WERE MAINLY SCATTERED OVER NORTHWEST                   
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND DECREASE IN                  
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING                  
INTO THE REGION AND HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT                
ARE COLD...SO EXPECT CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND                
AFTERNOON...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE                      
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PATCHY FOG WILL                
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.                          
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  65  43  62  45 /   0   0  10  10                                           
INL  63  39  67  43 /  10   0  10  20                                           
BRD  66  43  70  45 /   0   0  10  10                                           
HYR  67  38  67  43 /   0   0  10  10                                           
ASX  63  41  65  44 /  10   0  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-             
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
$$                                                                              
BETTWY/MELDE                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1230 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE                
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVING NNE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. CIRCULATION                
AROUND THIS CENTER HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR WESTERN            
ZONES. A DRY SLOT WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY GENERALLY OVER THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED             
OVER OUR CWFA LAST NIGHT WAS BROKEN AND NEARLY STALLED OVER EASTERN             
MISSISSIPPI. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS              
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS TRAINING STORMS WILL HAVE THE                
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST THOUGH TO             
LOWER POPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.              
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS BEING OBSERVED IN ARKANSAS AND             
MAY OCCUR OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI                 
COUNTIES. OUR PARISHES AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES SHOULD             
NOT SEE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT             
A TORNADO IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER               
TODAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKED OK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED.               
/22/                                                                            
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THERE                 
FINALLY APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE GUSTAV TUNNEL THIS                
MORNING. SOME INCREDIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 20 INCHES WILL BE                
PUBLISHED LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. LATEST                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ACROSS              
CENTRAL  ARKANSAS MOVING NNE. LAST CONVECTIVE BAND ROUGHLY ALONG                
INTERSTATE 55 CREEPING STEADILY EWD THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING                
RAINFALL RATES OF GENERALLY ABOUT 1 INCH/HOUR OR LESS. RISING                   
SURFACE PRESSURES AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE                    
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND. AS FAR AS FLASH FLOOD                       
POTENTIAL...ONGOING FLOODING DICTATES THAT WE NOT CANCEL THE FFA                
UNTIL RAIN COMPLETELY GONE. WE WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE            
FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT EXTEND IT FOR SERN/SCNTRL AREAS                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE                  
THROUGH ERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN PROCESSES WILL BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID            
BETWEEN TROPICAL AND CONVECTIVE AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS MAY HELP                  
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE RAIN BAND               
TODAY.                                                                          
SHORT RANGE NAM12/RUC SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PUSH AWAY                
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND INTO SRN ILLINOIS TONIGHT.            
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A             
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAILING INTO ERN MS. AFTERNOON            
MLCAPES PROGGED TO REACH 1200-1600J/KG OVER AT LEAST SERN HALF OF               
CWFA WITH K INDEXES HOLDING IN THE M30S. DECENT FORWARD CELL MOTIONS            
SHOULD LIMIT RAIN VOLUMES HOPEFULLY. LOOK FOR THE WEAK CONVERGENT               
AXIS TO EXIT TO THE E LATER THIS EVENING. THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD DRY              
OUT FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO HELP              
IN EVAPORATION.                                                                 
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED BELIEVE THAT SOGGY GROUND WILL LIMIT              
WARMING FOR TODAY WHILE EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY HIGHS MORE PROBABLE             
ON FRIDAY SO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE.                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND IN LINE WITH            
MAV MOS./40/                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN THE LONGER TERM. LAST TRACES              
OF DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED OVER EXTREME SERN MS CORNER                            
SATURDAY...LEAVING FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW              
DEVELOPS AS SURFACE/850 MB RIDGING TAKES SHAPE UPSTREAM. WEAK LOW               
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND                 
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW                
RETURNS BY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING EDGES SLIGHTLY EWD BUT                     
MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON REGIONAL WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO            
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SRN                
ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SRN              
ZONES FOR NOW BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE LOOKS UNORGANIZED.             
WE WILL SEE COOLER LOW TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN             
ZONES...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WHEN THE                
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY AND CLOUDS BEGINS TO CLEAR. /03/                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATED...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE            
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN               
HALF BUT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT IN THE NORTHWEST COULD BE               
OBSERVED AS THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV               
DROPS SOUTHEAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ056-057-            
     064>066-072>074.                                                           
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-              
     025>028-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                           
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR                          
LAZ007>009-015-     016-023>026.                                                
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40/03                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
424 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THERE FINALLY                  
APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE GUSTAV TUNNEL THIS MORNING.               
SOME INCREDIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 20 INCHES WILL BE PUBLISHED               
LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. LATEST SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ACROSS CENTRAL                
ARKANSAS MOVING NNE. LAST CONVECTIVE BAND ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE              
55 CREEPING STEADILY EWD THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING RAINFALL RATES            
OF GENERALLY ABOUT 1 INCH/HOUR OR LESS. RISING SURFACE PRESSURES AND            
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE            
BAND. AS FAR AS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...ONGOING FLOODING DICTATES               
THAT WE NOT CANCEL THE FFA UNTIL RAIN COMPLETELY GONE. WE WILL LET              
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT EXTEND             
IT FOR SERN/SCNTRL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE             
RAIN BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN PROCESSES WILL                
BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID BETWEEN TROPICAL AND CONVECTIVE AND MID 70S             
DEWPOINTS MAY HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD             
OF THE RAIN BAND TODAY.                                                         
SHORT RANGE NAM12/RUC SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PUSH AWAY                
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND INTO SRN ILLINOIS TONIGHT.            
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A             
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAILING INTO ERN MS. AFTERNOON            
MLCAPES PROGGED TO REACH 1200-1600J/KG OVER AT LEAST SERN HALF OF               
CWFA WITH K INDEXES HOLDING IN THE M30S. DECENT FORWARD CELL MOTIONS            
SHOULD LIMIT RAIN VOLUMES HOPEFULLY. LOOK FOR THE WEAK CONVERGENT               
AXIS TO EXIT TO THE E LATER THIS EVENING. THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD DRY              
OUT FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO HELP              
IN EVAPORATION.                                                                 
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED BELIEVE THAT SOGGY GROUND WILL LIMIT              
WARMING FOR TODAY WHILE EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY HIGHS MORE PROBABLE             
ON FRIDAY SO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE.                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND IN LINE WITH            
MAV MOS./40/                                                                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN THE LONGER TERM. LAST TRACES              
OF DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED OVER EXTREME SERN MS CORNER                            
SATURDAY...LEAVING FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW              
DEVELOPS AS SURFACE/850 MB RIDGING TAKES SHAPE UPSTREAM. WEAK LOW               
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND                 
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW                
RETURNS BY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING EDGES SLIGHTLY EWD BUT                     
MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON REGIONAL WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO            
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SRN                
ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SRN              
ZONES FOR NOW BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE LOOKS UNORGANIZED.             
WE WILL SEE COOLER LOW TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN             
ZONES...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WHEN THE                
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY AND CLOUDS BEGINS TO CLEAR.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH NARROW BAND OF               
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR UP TO 2 HOUR                      
INTERVALS. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP TO THE            
WEST OF THE RAINS PER LOW CLOUD IMAGERY TRENDS. MORE WIDESPREAD VFR             
PERIODS SHOULD BE SEEN AT TIMES AFTER ABOUT 16Z THIS MORNING WITH               
BROKEN CLOUDS 3-4K FEET AS RAIN BAND BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER                
TIME. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING FOR AT LEAST SE HALF OF CWFA./40/                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       85  69  86  68 /  49  44  30  21                                  
MERIDIAN      87  70  86  69 /  61  53  51  26                                  
VICKSBURG     84  68  87  66 /  36  31  15  16                                  
HATTIESBURG   88  71  86  70 /  72  43  52  23                                  
NATCHEZ       84  69  86  68 /  41  22  17  13                                  
GREENVILLE    83  67  87  64 /  39  23  10  12                                  
GREENWOOD     83  69  86  65 /  50  36  22  16                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ056-057-            
     064>066-072>074.                                                           
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-              
     025>028-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                           
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR                          
LAZ007>009-015-     016-023>026.                                                
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40/03                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
837 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONGOING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK.  THE ONLY CHANGE            
THAT MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE GRIDS REGARDS SKY COVER.  ISENTROPIC              
DOWNGLIDE WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUD              
COVER FROM THE WEST.  EVENTUALLY THIS DOWNGLIDE OCCURS ACROSS MOST              
OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE RUC.  THEREFORE FULL SKY           
COVERAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE.  WILL             
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES WITHIN THE GRIDS.                               
WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL.  CAN NOT RULE OUT DENSE FOG                 
DEVELOPING AS SKIES CLEAR.  VERY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A             
DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT.                
THE GREATEST RISK AREA FOR DENSE FOG INITIALLY...WILL OCCUR OVER                
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.                                  
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WITHIN THE AVIATION FORECASTS                    
REGARDED CEILING HEIGHTS AND POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT.  CEILINGS OVER            
THE SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY                 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY CLEAR OUT SOMETIME AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ADVECTING IN FROM EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD              
ELIMINATE CLOUD COVER AT BOTH JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD.                           
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...FOG WILL DEVELOP AS WIND SPEEDS                
BECOME LIGHT...ELIMINATING ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAT MIGHT                 
EXIST.  MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT                 
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL WELL BELOW THE CROSS-OVER             
TEMPERATURE.                                                                    
WITHIN BOTH TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAFS)...I HAVE IFR FOG                
DEVELOPING AT AROUND 10Z...WITH MVFR FOG SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT.              
WILL MONITOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND            
ISSUE UPDATED TAFS WHEN NEEDED.                                                 
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1239 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                      
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS GRASP ON THE REGION.              
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                              
THE REMNANT LOW FROM GUSTAV IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.              
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO                  
FOCUS ON SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO                       
CONTINUE. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MOVEMENT PEGGED AND THE               
LOW ITSELF SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.                  
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL KEEP WINDS               
ON THE GUSTY SIDE...OCCASIONALLY TO 30 MPH.                                     
RECENT WAT VAP IMAGERY AND RUC INITIALIZATION OF UPPER LEVEL                    
VORTICITY INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS ALSO ON THE                  
MOVE. DEEP LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS                   
EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.                                
TO THIS POINT...THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS ONLY RESULTED IN                   
ISOLATED FLOODING. HOWEVER...A RECENT PEER AT AREA RIVER GAGES                  
INDICATES THAT AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE STARTING TO RESPOND.                  
CONTINUED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH                 
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RESPONSES OVERNIGHT. SMALL...NARROW                    
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL RESULT IN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES               
IN THE ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH RANGE. ADDITIONAL AREAL                
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
REGARDING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATION...AFTER COMPARING RECENT                    
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM ACROSS THE AREA THE RADAR HAS BEEN                         
UNDERESTIMATING IN SPOTS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE MBRFC...                 
THE KSGF RADAR Z/R RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN CHANGED TO STRATIFORM                  
MODE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE THE PAST                
SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS Z/R RELATIONSHIP SHOULD ESTIMATE TONIGHTS                
RAINFALL THE BEST. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THIS STRATIFORM               
RAIN MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED AT TIMES.                                            
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TWO TO SIX INCHES OF STORM              
TOTAL RAINFALL COMMON BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS              
ARE EXPECTED. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT                
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE               
FLOOD WATCH ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                           
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING...                                           
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD                
RAIN PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. RAINFALL                        
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GUSTAV CONTINUES ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.                                        
SO FAR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY HAVE RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO                
AN INCH NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS RANGING                
FROM 1 INCH TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE                
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER WHERE                  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REALIZED.                           
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS                      
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...CONTINUES TO OVERRUN A                
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO CASSVILLE. ACROSS THE                
CENTRAL OZARKS...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE RANGED UP TO A                      
QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR WHILE RATES OVER AN INCH AND A HALF                 
PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.                       
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY               
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT              
WITH TRACKING THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS                
OF GUSTAV NORTH INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT AND MOVING THE LOW                      
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NO CHANGES WILL                
BE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE IN                   
COVERAGE AS STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850MB LOW TRACKS                  
THROUGH THE OZARKS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE IS OFTEN AN              
INCREASE IN RAIN INTENSITY WITH TROPICAL AIRMASSES DUE TO                       
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. RAINFALL                
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAINS                    
LIKELY. FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR                     
DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...SOME URBAN AREAS AND                     
ACROSS THE WHITE...GASCONADE...BIG PINEY...NIANGUA...OSAGE AND SAC              
RIVER BASINS.                                                                   
THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM                 
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL                
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS KICKS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV                      
NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE                   
ALONG THE 320K SURFACE WHICH WOULD END THE RAIN CHANCES SOONER                  
THAN THE GOING FORECAST. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...JUST                
THINK THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING OUT                 
THE COLUMN.                                                                     
ISOLATED BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT                  
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL                   
MISSOURI...PRIMARILY ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDES OF THE LOW                 
TRACKING THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG 0 TO 1KM                 
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 500 M2/S2 WHILE LCL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW                
WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS. WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOP THERE                 
WILL BE AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING               
A LIMITING FACTOR.                                                              
ANGLE                                                                           
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO                 
THE REGION. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FRIDAY                  
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A WET GROUND.                   
A BROAD AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER                  
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS                
AND THE OZARKS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR                     
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.                                                         
ANGLE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV HAS                   
PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST              
24 HOURS. REPORTS HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME                      
ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. SEVERAL HEAVY BANDS OF                      
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT                  
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS. A RECORD RAINFALL FOR                    
SPRINGFIELD OF 1.62 INCHES OF RAIN EXCEEDED THE OLD RECORD OF 1.38              
INCHES SET IN 1970. THIS OCCURRED AT 9 PM AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL               
WILL LIKELY BREAK OTHER RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE          
RECORDS FOR THE FOUR ASOS SITES IN THE OZARKS FOR SEPTEMBER 3RD                 
AND 4TH. AMOUNTS ARE IN INCHES WITH THE YEAR OF THE PREVIOUS RECORD.            
ASOS           WED        THURS     AS OF 9 PM WED                              
SPRINGFIELD   1.38 1970  1.54 1937    1.62 NEW RECORD                           
JOPLIN        2.24 1970  0.76 1961    1.52                                      
VICHY/ROLLA   1.87 1993  2.65 1965    0.56                                      
WEST PLAINS   3.02 1988  1.70 1970    2.42                                      
HATCH                                                                           
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERN ONCE AGAIN REVOLVES                   
AROUND THE PROLONGED IFR EVENT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE               
ALL NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY REDUCED TO BETWEEN 2                 
AND 4 MILES WITHIN THIS RAIN. IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH LIFR                   
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE                      
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NNE WINDS.                
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF                    
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE SLOW TO COME. RAIN WILL END IN THE                    
MORNING AND A DELIBERATE SLOW LIFTING OF CIGS HAS BEEN PROGGED.                 
SHOULD REMAIN IFR ALL MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RISE                 
INTO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS CONTINGENT ON THE EXIT              
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE REMAINED PESSIMISTIC BASED ON PAST                
MODEL/MOS PERFORMANCE. IF/WHEN CLEARING OCCURS TOMORROW NIGHT. FOG              
WILL BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN.                                                    
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-           
     077>083-088>098-101>106.                                                   
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
900 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...                                           
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS GRASP ON THE REGION.              
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                              
THE REMNANT LOW FROM GUSTAV IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.              
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO                  
FOCUS ON SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO                       
CONTINUE. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MOVEMENT PEGGED AND THE               
LOW ITSELF SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.                  
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL KEEP WINDS               
ON THE GUSTY SIDE...OCCASIONALLY TO 30 MPH.                                     
RECENT WAT VAP IMAGERY AND RUC INITIALIZATION OF UPPER LEVEL                    
VORTICITY INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS ALSO ON THE                  
MOVE. DEEP LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS                   
EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.                                
TO THIS POINT...THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS ONLY RESULTED IN                   
ISOLATED FLOODING. HOWEVER...A RECENT PEER AT AREA RIVER GAGES                  
INDICATES THAT AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE STARTING TO RESPOND.                  
CONTINUED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH                 
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RESPONSES OVERNIGHT. SMALL...NARROW                    
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL RESULT IN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES               
IN THE ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH RANGE. ADDITIONAL AREAL                
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
REGARDING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATION...AFTER COMPARING RECENT                    
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM ACROSS THE AREA THE RADAR HAS BEEN                         
UNDERESTIMATING IN SPOTS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE MBRFC...                 
THE KSGF RADAR Z/R RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN CHANGED TO STRATIFORM                  
MODE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE THE PAST                
SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS Z/R RELATIONSHIP SHOULD ESTIMATE TONIGHTS                
RAINFALL THE BEST. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THIS STRATIFORM               
RAIN MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED AT TIMES.                                            
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TWO TO SIX INCHES OF STORM              
TOTAL RAINFALL COMMON BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS              
ARE EXPECTED. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT                
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE               
FLOOD WATCH ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                           
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING...                                           
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD                
RAIN PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. RAINFALL                        
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GUSTAV CONTINUES ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.                                        
SO FAR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY HAVE RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO                
AN INCH NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS RANGING                
FROM 1 INCH TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE                
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER WHERE                  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REALIZED.                           
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS                      
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...CONTINUES TO OVERRUN A                
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO CASSVILLE. ACROSS THE                
CENTRAL OZARKS...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE RANGED UP TO A                      
QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR WHILE RATES OVER AN INCH AND A HALF                 
PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.                       
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY               
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT              
WITH TRACKING THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS                
OF GUSTAV NORTH INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT AND MOVING THE LOW                      
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NO CHANGES WILL                
BE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE IN                   
COVERAGE AS STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850MB LOW TRACKS                  
THROUGH THE OZARKS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE IS OFTEN AN              
INCREASE IN RAIN INTENSITY WITH TROPICAL AIRMASSES DUE TO                       
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. RAINFALL                
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAINS                    
LIKELY. FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR                     
DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...SOME URBAN AREAS AND                     
ACROSS THE WHITE...GASCONADE...BIG PINEY...NIANGUA...OSAGE AND SAC              
RIVER BASINS.                                                                   
THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM                 
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL                
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS KICKS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV                      
NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE                   
ALONG THE 320K SURFACE WHICH WOULD END THE RAIN CHANCES SOONER                  
THAN THE GOING FORECAST. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...JUST                
THINK THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING OUT                 
THE COLUMN.                                                                     
ISOLATED BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT                  
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL                   
MISSOURI...PRIMARILY ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDES OF THE LOW                 
TRACKING THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG 0 TO 1KM                 
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 500 M2/S2 WHILE LCL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW                
WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS. WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOP THERE                 
WILL BE AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING               
A LIMITING FACTOR.                                                              
ANGLE                                                                           
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO                 
THE REGION. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FRIDAY                  
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A WET GROUND.                   
A BROAD AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER                  
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS                
AND THE OZARKS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR                     
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.                                                         
ANGLE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST DEAL               
WITH RAINFALL AND PROLONGED IFR...LIKELY LIFR CONDITIONS.                       
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH              
ONLY A FEW TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE ACTION. CIGS HAVE BEEN IFR AT                
JLN MOST OF TODAY AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE. A SLOW DESCENT INTO                 
LIFR IS EXPECTED. AT SGF...CIGS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE VARIABLE                   
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS IS DUE...IN PART...TO SOME BREAKS              
IN THE RAINFALL. WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED...IFR WILL              
BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITY                       
REDUCTIONS WILL BE INTIMATELY TIED TO RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT               
AS WINDS SLACKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY...LIFR VIS IS                   
POSSIBLE. SPEAKING OF WINDS...THEY WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST AS THE REMNANT LOW FROM GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...              
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-           
     077>083-088>098-101>106.                                                   
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
930 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                 
MORNING UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS THIS                
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS                    
ROTATING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW                  
OVER NORTHCENTRAL SD STRETCHING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LAKE                     
SAKAKAWEA REGION. 500 MB TROF IS JUST EAST OF THE ND/MT LINE THIS               
MORNING. FOG HAS BASICALLY DISSIPATED EVERYWHERE...JUST A FEW                   
ISOLATED PATCHES REMAINING SO HAVE REMOVED THE FOG WORDING FROM                 
THE FORECAST AS WELL. FRANSEN                                                   
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS THE JETSTREAM      
CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME               
OF YEAR. THERE IS UPPER RIDGING OFF THE W COAST...WITH NE MT IN                 
UPPER TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE THICKNESSES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOO. THESE DON`T CHANGE MUCH...SO                  
TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM.                                   
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ENE ACROSS OUR AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST                  
NIGHT DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NE MT. THIS ENHANCED                  
PRECIP IN OUR NE...BUT HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA. RUC HAD A                 
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM...BUT NOW ITS TOO SLOW COMPARED TO OTHER              
MODELS AND EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR EXTREME NE               
TO BE DONE BY EARLY THIS MORN. QUITE A BIT OF PARTIAL CLEARING                  
ELSEWHERE...MORE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SURFACE PRESSURE                        
GRADIENTS BECOMING VERY WEAK AS WELL. THIS IS COMBINING WITH THE                
MOIST AIRMASS AT LOWER LEVELS TO CAUSE MOST OF THE CWA TO BE                    
NEARLY SATURATED...TEMP/DWPOINT SPREADS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3F.                 
THIS WILL MEAN PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST ANY LOCATION IN              
OUR CWA. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR NE WHERE LOW LEVELS MOST                   
SATURATED FROM MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT JUST ENDED. ANOTHER               
AREA ALREADY WITH FOG IS NOW SEEN ON SATELLITE FOG LOOP ACROSS                  
PARTS OF OUR SE...WIBAUX....DAWSON...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.                     
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE MAIN                    
DYNAMICS HAVE EXITED INTO ND AND MODELS INDICATE LITTLE SHORTWAVE               
ACTIVITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED                      
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL GO WITH NAM                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THAT ARE QUITE BORDERLINE FOR ANY TSTORM                   
ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION.                                           
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN UPPER PATTERN FOR FRI...BUT SOME DRYING OF               
THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER DOWN TO 0.50 OR LESS AND FORECAST                 
SOUNDINGS ALL ABOVE ZERO. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN SIGHT.                   
THEREFORE EXPECT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS               
FRI WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS.                                                  
THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN NW FLOW SAT. MODELS              
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN OUR NE. AIRMASS AGAIN MOISTENS               
A BIT MORE AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS ALSO A                  
SURFACE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIP                  
AGAIN...AND AIRMASS STABILITY IS BORDERLINE FOR TSTORM                          
ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS              
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SAT AND SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS.                
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CLOSE TO                   
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AWHILE DURING WEAK COOL ADVECTION               
PERIOD AS 850 MB WINDS ARE 20 KT. SIMONSEN                                      
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                
ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MONTANA SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.                        
THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED BY               
ALL OF THE MODELS TO TRACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.                
THIS WOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE                    
FORECAST AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR                 
NOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH              
SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY              
IN THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS                    
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA               
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS               
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL                
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD                   
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST                  
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR NEXT                     
THURSDAY. FORRESTER                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON                  
AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND                
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES. LOOK              
FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PATCHY FOG              
POSSIBLE. RAE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
404 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                 
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS THE JETSTREAM CONTINUING TO BE                      
STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                       
THERE IS UPPER RIDGING OFF THE W COAST...WITH NE MT IN UPPER                    
TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE THICKNESSES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BELOW                      
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOO. THESE DON`T CHANGE MUCH...SO TEMPS            
TO STAY BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM.                                         
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ENE ACROSS OUR AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST                  
NIGHT DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NE MT. THIS ENHANCED                  
PRECIP IN OUR NE...BUT HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA. RUC HAD A                 
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM...BUT NOW ITS TOO SLOW COMPARED TO OTHER              
MODELS AND EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR EXTREME NE               
TO BE DONE BY EARLY THIS MORN. QUITE A BIT OF PARTIAL CLEARING                  
ELSEWHERE...MORE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SURFACE PRESSURE                        
GRADIENTS BECOMING VERY WEAK AS WELL. THIS IS COMBINING WITH THE                
MOIST AIRMASS AT LOWER LEVELS TO CAUSE MOST OF THE CWA TO BE                    
NEARLY SATURATED...TEMP/DWPOINT SPREADS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3F.                 
THIS WILL MEAN PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST ANY LOCATION IN              
OUR CWA. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR NE WHERE LOW LEVELS MOST                   
SATURATED FROM MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT JUST ENDED. ANOTHER               
AREA ALREADY WITH FOG IS NOW SEEN ON SATELLITE FOG LOOP ACROSS                  
PARTS OF OUR SE...WIBAUX....DAWSON...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.                     
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THE MAIN                    
DYNAMICS HAVE EXITED INTO ND AND MODELS INDICATE LITTLE SHORTWAVE               
ACTIVITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED                      
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL GO WITH NAM                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THAT ARE QUITE BORDERLINE FOR ANY TSTORM                   
ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION.                                           
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN UPPER PATTERN FOR FRI...BUT SOME DRYING OF               
THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER DOWN TO 0.50 OR LESS AND FORECAST                 
SOUNDINGS ALL ABOVE ZERO. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN SIGHT.                   
THEREFORE EXPECT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS               
FRI WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS.                                                  
THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN NW FLOW SAT. MODELS              
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN OUR NE. AIRMASS AGAIN MOISTENS               
A BIT MORE AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS ALSO A                  
SURFACE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIP                  
AGAIN...AND AIRMASS STABILITY IS BORDERLINE FOR TSTORM                          
ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS              
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SAT AND SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS.                
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CLOSE TO                   
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AWHILE DURING WEAK COOL ADVECTION               
PERIOD AS 850 MB WINDS ARE 20 KT. SIMONSEN                                      
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                
ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MONTANA SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.                        
THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED BY               
ALL OF THE MODELS TO TRACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.                
THIS WOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE                    
FORECAST AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR                 
NOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH              
SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY              
IN THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS                    
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA               
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS               
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL                
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD                   
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST                  
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR NEXT                     
THURSDAY. FORRESTER                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE TIME BEING. SKIES                
HAVE CLEARED WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. MAY SEE                 
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WHERE FOG DOES OCCUR THIS MORNING. WHILE              
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME FOR TODAY AND                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON                  
AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND                
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES.                   
LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH                    
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
332 AM MDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...                                          
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. FIRST IS ENERGY                
CURRENTLY SAGGING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON WESTERN FLANK OF                    
DEEPER TROF IN THE DAKOTAS. AS EVENING SHIFT NOTED ONLY Q-VECTOR                
DIVERGENCE IN OUR EAST TODAY DESPITE THIS WAVE...LIKELY DUE TO THE              
COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. NONETHELESS...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY               
COLD...ON THE ORDER OF -20C AT 500MB. 00Z TFX SOUNDING SHOWED A                 
RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE PROFILE FROM 700-500MB. ALSO...SURFACE                
DEW POINTS ARE REASONABLY HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE              
BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SHOWS AFTERNOON                   
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FROM MLS TO BHK...LESS FURTHER WEST.                
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING...THOUGH                
HAVE LOWERED MORNING COVERAGE TO ISOLATED GIVEN LITTLE IS GOING ON              
NOW AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR DIURNAL HEATING.                               
NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA COULD                  
PROVE TO BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. CLOUD COVER ALREADY                      
ENHANCING FROM SOUTHERN BC ALONG THE MT/ID BORDER...AND THIS                    
MATCHES WELL WITH QG FORCING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. HAVE RAISED              
MTN POPS A BIT MORE...AND SOME -SHSN POSSIBLE AS 700MB TEMPS SHOULD             
FALL TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO TODAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS                  
N-NE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND                
THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING UP IN CANADA PER RUC ANALYSIS. THIS                   
SHOULD FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS               
AND BIG HORNS. HAVE RAISED POPS SOME IN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE               
FOOTHILLS FROM NYE TO RED LODGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME FAVORED                     
BETWEEN 21-06Z...PER UPSLOPE AND GREATEST UPPER SUPPORT. 00Z 700MB              
ANALYSIS SHOWED 700MB TEMP OF -6C IN SOUTHERN BC...AND AS WE TAP                
INTO THIS AIR THINK SOME SNOW IS A GOOD BET IN ALONG THE NORTH                  
SLOPES ABOVE RED LODGE AND NYE. HAVE GIVEN COLE CREEK AN INCH OF                
SNOW TONIGHT...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THIS SYSTEM                     
EVOLVES TODAY.                                                                  
THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS              
WAVE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH A               
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. GFS AND 06Z NAM                   
SHOW PERIOD OF MOIST WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER                       
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF                   
SHOWERS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS              
THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...THOUGH HAVE LOWERED POPS A TAD                   
ESPECIALLY WESTERN PARTS DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AIRMASS WILL                
BE QUITE A BIT MORE STABLE...AND ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. BETTER                 
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY...SEE EXTENDED                        
DISCUSSION FOR THAT.                                                            
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TODAY SHOULD                
BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS COOL CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE BLEEDS                  
SOUTHWARD BEHIND ENERGY IN NE MONTANA. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE                  
LOWER TEENS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARMER WITH WEST FLOW AND A BIT OF                
RIDGING...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD                 
HOLD THINGS BACK SOME. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70F ON FRIDAY.                       
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...                           
COOL AND UNSETTLED LOOKS THE WAY TO GO FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS                  
HAVE BEEN COMING MORE IN LINE ON THE NEXT MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR                
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN COULD TURN WINTRY IN                
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS STRONG ENERGY                   
DIGS OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES.               
BOTH THE GFS AND WRF WERE COMING IN DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH                
AND FARTHER WEST WITH ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE STATE. THIS TREND                 
SHOULD SET UP A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                    
MONTANA AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLING AIR SLIPS INTO THE AREA                
SATURDAY. DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH DYNAMIC ENERGY DIVING                 
TOWARD SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BUMPED POPS UP QUITE A BIT FOR SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                    
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO GO                    
COOLER. 06Z WRF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY WITH LIKELY               
RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES EAST TOWARD A LINE FROM RYEGATE TO                   
BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN. GOT MY FOOT IN THE DOOR BY RAISING POPS                  
INTO THE HIGH SCATTERED CATEGORY AND WILL USE THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THINGS. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND               
-4C BY EARLY SUNDAY...SO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS TO HAVE A SHOT                
OF SNOW WITH THIS IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE NYE AND RED LODGE. WILL                
ISSUE AN HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND COOL                
AND WET AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY                  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                               
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE                     
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. THE DEEP                     
UPSLOPE FLOW GOES AWAY AND MAKES ROOM FOR DOWNSLOPE AND THIS                    
SHOULD PROVIDE OUR BEST SHOT OF GETTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70                   
DEGREES THIS MONTH. READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK LIKE A                
GOOD BET FOR TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIG THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH                  
INTO NORTHERN IDAHO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER STRONG COLD               
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE ANOTHER                   
GOOD SHOT OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE MID                
LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF A LOW OVER IDAHO. FRONTOGENESIS BAND SHOULD               
SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. RAISED POPS FOR                    
THIS. HUMPHREY                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL IMPACT BHK. CONDITIONS WILL BE                        
OCCASIONALLY LIFR AT BHK THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE                           
FOG...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. A DISTURBANCE                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER                     
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR                 
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLVM                
TO KBIL TO KMLS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED TODAY                
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS                
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH OF SOUTH TONIGHT. HUMPHREY                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 064 045/068 048/069 048/063 045/071 048/078 052/072                         
    3/W 21/B    22/W    55/W    20/U    00/B    22/W                            
LVM 064 036/068 040/066 042/062 038/071 040/078 043/069                         
    4/W 22/W    22/W    45/W    20/B    00/B    22/W                            
HDN 065 042/071 047/070 047/065 044/073 047/080 049/077                         
    3/T 21/B    22/W    55/W    20/B    00/B    02/W                            
MLS 066 046/070 048/070 048/064 044/071 046/076 050/073                         
    3/T 21/B    32/W    22/W    20/U    00/B    00/B                            
4BQ 064 042/069 046/070 047/065 044/071 046/077 050/073                         
    4/T 32/W    32/W    43/W    20/U    00/B    00/B                            
BHK 064 043/069 043/065 043/063 043/070 045/075 048/073                         
    3/T 22/W    32/W    22/W    20/B    00/U    00/B                            
SHR 064 039/068 043/069 044/064 040/070 042/078 044/071                         
    4/T 31/B    22/W    55/W    30/U    00/B    02/W                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
921 PM MDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT...                                
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A                     
SEPARATE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA. RUC HAS THIS WELL-               
DEPICTED WHICH IS SEEN WELL ON 88D REFLECTIVELY LOOPS. RUC SLOWS                
THIS SYSTEM DOWN AND INTENSIFIES IT AS A RESULT. THIS GENERATES                 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT LAST THRU THE NIGHT IN OUR NE. WILL GO                  
WITH THAT SCENARIO AND RE-LOCATE OUR HIGHEST POPS FROM THE SE THIS              
EVE TO NE. RUC SHOWS QPF UP TO 0.45. ELSEWHERE...THE AIRMASS                    
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO KEEP                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE NIGHT. ISOLATED TSTORMS               
HAVE DIED IN THE LAST HOUR...SO WILL DROP MENTION.                              
LOCATIONS IN OUR NE ALREADY HAVE NARROW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS DUE              
TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CLEARING TO AID FOG                 
FORMATION. WITH 8 PM TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND                  
LOWER 50S MOST AREAS...FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE. SIMONSEN                  
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH                   
FRIDAY...UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE               
THE SHORT TERM AS PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROFS DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A RATHER VIGOROUS TROF PRESENTLY OVER                     
CENTRAL MONTANA HAS BEEN GENERATING A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF THE CWA WITH MORE SHOWERY CONVECTION               
NOTED TO THE WEST UNDER A COLD POCKET. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN                   
ZONES AS A REINFORCING S/W TROF DIGS INTO THE MAIN TROF/S BASE.                 
THIS PROCESS SHOULD DRIVE SOME APPRECIABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT JUST                
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF AXIS...THOUGH QPF TOTALS WERE KEPT ON THE                
LOW END AS THE BEST FORCING LOOKS BETTER JUST ACROSS THE BORDER                 
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. INHERITED POPS ADDRESSED THIS SOLUTION RATHER                
WELL...SO ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY HERE.                         
A STRONGER COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER S/W TROF                     
ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING AND BY THE AFTERNOON WOULD EXPECT QUITE                
A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN                 
ZONES WHERE THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH MAX               
HEATING. ALBEIT MARGINAL...THE GFS IS RATHER BULLISH WITH                       
CAPE COMPARED TO THE NAM...THOUGH A FEW SMALL HAILERS ARE NOT OUT OF            
THE QUESTION GIVEN LOW WBZ HEIGHTS. FOR NOW THE THREAT LOOKS TOO                
LIMITED AND NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                  
MEANWHILE WILL BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME                   
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW SOME. VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS                   
REVEAL WINDS 20-25 MPH THROUGHOUT THE MIXING LAYER...THEREFORE A                
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY UPON ADDITIONAL                         
INSPECTION.                                                                     
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW STABILIZES OUT ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT               
DAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL                    
MONTANA AND INTO WYOMING. MCZ                                                   
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN                 
GOOD AGREEMENT. JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BRING                    
DISTURBANCE IN A LITTLE EARLIER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. FLOW                 
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD                 
AND BRING IN A DRIER AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. SHALLENBERGER                    
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE                      
JETSTREAM REMAINING STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN NORMAL FOR THIS                 
TIME OF YEAR. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WITH              
A CLOSED HIGH CENTER OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...AND A RATHER DEEP               
UPPER LOW COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM N OF HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER                   
MIDWEST STATES. NE MT IS ALSO IN THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH THIS              
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONE OR TWO                      
SHORTWAVES TO EFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THIS FLOW. WOULD                  
EXPECT ISOLATED-TYPE SHOWERS FOR 3 OR 4 12HR FORECAST PERIODS                   
WHICH CURRENT FORECAST HAS...WITH SHORTWAVES OF MODERATE INTENSITY              
AT BEST. THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE                 
UPPER 540S TO LOWER 550S DM ON AVERAGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM              
THE NW SUN NIGHT BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF              
THE CHILLIEST LOWS SINCE MAY...LOTS OF 30S FOR LOWS...BUT ONLY                  
SPOTTY LIGHT FROST.                                                             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE MAIN UPPER                 
HIGH MON AND TUE...WHILE THE JETSTREAM WEAKENS AND TURNS W. THIS                
ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM THE             
NW ARRIVES WED. MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT WILL              
LEAD TO COOLING AGAIN. OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH                
THE LONG TERM PATTERN. SIMONSEN                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THRU THE NIGHT AND ON                
THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME MAY PROVIDE              
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. KGDV COULD POSSIBLY               
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ONLY SHOWERS                 
ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH                    
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND WILL BE                      
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT FOR MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING                 
NORTH NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON SPEEDS WILL                
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT MOST TAF SITES.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1229 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF                    
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER                      
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION                   
PRIOR TO BECOMING VARIABLE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER                  
LIMITED IN THE DRY AIRMASS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL                    
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/PAC NW. ACROSS THE EAST...THINGS A BIT MORE                 
COMPLEX WITH REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NEAR THE GULF AND ANOTHER AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. CURRENT SATELLITE                    
IMAGERY SHOWS GUSTAV HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...AND IS STILL CENTERED                 
NEAR THE AK/LA/TX BORDERS. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE IN PART TO THE                
LOW LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS..WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE FRONT. ACROSS               
OUR CWA...SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH THE                     
NORTHWEST BEING CLEAR AND THE SOUTHEAST SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY                    
SKIES. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF                
THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW WEAK AREA OF LOW/MID LVL                       
FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                  
NAM/RUC HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND BOTH SHOW             
FORCING GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION           
STAYING JUST OUT OF THE CWA...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING EXCEPT FOR             
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANY SHOWERS WHICH MAY CREEP INTO THE CWA                  
THIS MORNING WOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE TO NOTHING. FOR THE REST OF                 
TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL                    
PATTERN OVER THE CWA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH MOVES              
EAST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. WHILE GUSTAV SPENDS A GOOD                   
CHUNK OF THE DAY SPINNING TO THE SOUTH...EVENTUALLY IT BECOMES                  
PHASED INTO THE MAIN FLOW AND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE...SHOWING THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND                  
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR EAST...HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON                  
KANSAS/MISSOURI/IOWA BEFORE SHIFTING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKING              
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR AREA WILL LIE WITH THE AREA                
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CENTER OF              
HIGH EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY                
SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY/EASTERLY               
WINDS EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.                 
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 DEGREES...WITH                 
THURSDAY JUST A TOUCH WARMER AS THAT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS                        
EAST...REACHING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT                 
COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECTED.                                                        
NEXT CHANGE ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY                     
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  UPPER              
LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP SO THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS LIES UNDER            
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH...WITH THE AXIS LYING THROUGH THE               
PLAINS.  A SMALLER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW WORKS ITS               
WAY EAST...AND LOOKS TO CROSS OVER THE CWA.  ALONG WITH THE                     
DISTURBANCE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE                        
CWA...WHICH ALSO SITS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR HELP FROM AN UPPER            
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE                  
CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES COMING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.              
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE CHANCES              
FOR PRECIP AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...AND AM EXPECTING                  
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO HIT 70. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM                             
CHANCES...INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY LEVEL ACROSS                 
THE CWA...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS ARE A BIT BETTER...SO TRENDED THE                  
NORTHERN CWA DOWN TO JUST AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.                          
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER ON THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WORK INTO THE            
REGION.  NO ADJUSTMENTS CHANGES TO POPS...AS MODELS STILL DIFFER                
WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.  WITH NO               
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED            
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS STAYING IN THE              
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
541 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. WIND               
MAY PICK UP A BIT FROM THE EAST FOR A PERIOD DURING THE DAY                     
WEDNESDAY. SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL SKY COVER POSSIBLE TOWARD THE               
VERY END OF THE FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE IN CATEGORY EXPECTED.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL                    
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/PAC NW. ACROSS THE EAST...THINGS A BIT MORE                 
COMPLEX WITH REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NEAR THE GULF AND ANOTHER AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. CURRENT SATELLITE                    
IMAGERY SHOWS GUSTAV HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...AND IS STILL CENTERED                 
NEAR THE AK/LA/TX BORDERS. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE IN PART TO THE                
LOW LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS..WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE FRONT. ACROSS               
OUR CWA...SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH THE                     
NORTHWEST BEING CLEAR AND THE SOUTHEAST SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY                    
SKIES. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF                
THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW WEAK AREA OF LOW/MID LVL                       
FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                  
NAM/RUC HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND BOTH SHOW             
FORCING GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION           
STAYING JUST OUT OF THE CWA...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING EXCEPT FOR             
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANY SHOWERS WHICH MAY CREEP INTO THE CWA                  
THIS MORNING WOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE TO NOTHING. FOR THE REST OF                 
TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL                    
PATTERN OVER THE CWA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH MOVES              
EAST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. WHILE GUSTAV SPENDS A GOOD                   
CHUNK OF THE DAY SPINNING TO THE SOUTH...EVENTUALLY IT BECOMES                  
PHASED INTO THE MAIN FLOW AND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE...SHOWING THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND                  
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR EAST...HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON                  
KANSAS/MISSOURI/IOWA BEFORE SHIFTING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKING              
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR AREA WILL LIE WITH THE AREA                
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CENTER OF              
HIGH EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY                
SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY/EASTERLY               
WINDS EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.                 
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 DEGREES...WITH                 
THURSDAY JUST A TOUCH WARMER AS THAT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS                        
EAST...REACHING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT                 
COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECTED.                                                        
NEXT CHANGE ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY                     
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  UPPER              
LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP SO THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS LIES UNDER            
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH...WITH THE AXIS LYING THROUGH THE               
PLAINS.  A SMALLER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW WORKS ITS               
WAY EAST...AND LOOKS TO CROSS OVER THE CWA.  ALONG WITH THE                     
DISTURBANCE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE                        
CWA...WHICH ALSO SITS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR HELP FROM AN UPPER            
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE                  
CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES COMING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.              
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE CHANCES              
FOR PRECIP AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...AND AM EXPECTING                  
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO HIT 70. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM                             
CHANCES...INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY LEVEL ACROSS                 
THE CWA...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS ARE A BIT BETTER...SO TRENDED THE                  
NORTHERN CWA DOWN TO JUST AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.                          
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER ON THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WORK INTO THE            
REGION.  NO ADJUSTMENTS CHANGES TO POPS...AS MODELS STILL DIFFER                
WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.  WITH NO               
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED            
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS STAYING IN THE              
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HEINLEIN                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
350 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL                   
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/PAC NW. ACROSS THE EAST...THINGS A BIT MORE                 
COMPLEX WITH REMNANTS OF GUSTAV NEAR THE GULF AND ANOTHER AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. CURRENT SATELLITE                    
IMAGERY SHOWS GUSTAV HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...AND IS STILL CENTERED                 
NEAR THE AK/LA/TX BORDERS. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE IN PART TO THE                
LOW LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS..WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE FRONT. ACROSS               
OUR CWA...SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH THE                     
NORTHWEST BEING CLEAR AND THE SOUTHEAST SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY                    
SKIES. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF                
THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW WEAK AREA OF LOW/MID LVL                       
FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                  
NAM/RUC HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND BOTH SHOW             
FORCING GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION           
STAYING JUST OUT OF THE CWA...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING EXCEPT FOR             
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANY SHOWERS WHICH MAY CREEP INTO THE CWA                  
THIS MORNING WOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE TO NOTHING. FOR THE REST OF                 
TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL                    
PATTERN OVER THE CWA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH MOVES              
EAST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. WHILE GUSTAV SPENDS A GOOD                   
CHUNK OF THE DAY SPINNING TO THE SOUTH...EVENTUALLY IT BECOMES                  
PHASED INTO THE MAIN FLOW AND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE...SHOWING THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND                  
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR EAST...HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON                  
KANSAS/MISSOURI/IOWA BEFORE SHIFTING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKING              
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR AREA WILL LIE WITH THE AREA                
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CENTER OF              
HIGH EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY                
SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY/EASTERLY               
WINDS EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.                 
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 DEGREES...WITH                 
THURSDAY JUST A TOUCH WARMER AS THAT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS                        
EAST...REACHING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT                 
COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECTED.                                                        
NEXT CHANGE ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY                     
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  UPPER              
LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP SO THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS LIES UNDER            
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH...WITH THE AXIS LYING THROUGH THE               
PLAINS.  A SMALLER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW WORKS ITS               
WAY EAST...AND LOOKS TO CROSS OVER THE CWA.  ALONG WITH THE                     
DISTURBANCE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE                        
CWA...WHICH ALSO SITS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR HELP FROM AN UPPER            
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE                  
CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES COMING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.              
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE CHANCES              
FOR PRECIP AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...AND AM EXPECTING                  
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO HIT 70. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM                             
CHANCES...INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY LEVEL ACROSS                 
THE CWA...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS ARE A BIT BETTER...SO TRENDED THE                  
NORTHERN CWA DOWN TO JUST AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.                          
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER ON THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WORK INTO THE            
REGION.  NO ADJUSTMENTS CHANGES TO POPS...AS MODELS STILL DIFFER                
WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.  WITH NO               
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED            
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS STAYING IN THE              
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. WIND               
MAY PICK UP A BIT FROM THE EAST FOR A PERIOD DURING THE DAY                     
WEDNESDAY. SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL SKY COVER POSSIBLE TOWARD THE               
VERY END OF THE FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE IN CATEGORY EXPECTED.                  
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
320 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED         
WITH GUSTAV REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH.                                              
LATEST SATELLITE PICS AND RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW REMNANTS OF                   
GUSTAV SPINNING ACROSS ERN OK/WRN ARKANSAS WITH LARGE BLOCKING HIGH             
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE TROF                  
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS IDAHO AND INTO NEVADA. AT THE SFC...CHILLY                  
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL              
NEB. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S UNDER                  
THIS HIGH AND NOT A HUGE RECOVERY EXPECTED TODAY.                               
CLEARING LINE BETWEEN GUSTAV TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO              
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BISECT THE CWA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE               
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS                    
NORTHERN BANDS OF GUSTAV ROTATE THRU. BEST DIV Q TAKES PLACE FAR TO             
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS                   
ACTIVITY WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ONLY              
LITTLE NEWD PROGRESSION WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST.                    
TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WL BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE               
WEEK AND HELP TO MOVE GUSTAV REMNANTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SERIES                
OF WAVES WL MOVE THRU THE BROAD TROF AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU             
THE WEEKEND. WL CONTINUE SMALL POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO              
MAJOR WARM UP ANTICIPATED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 04/06Z.                                
KOFK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLEAR SKIES...WHILE KLNK AND KOMA ARE            
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID CLOUD SCENARIO.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE                
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH KLNK AND KOMA ARE                
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT ONCE                      
AGAIN...FALLING UNDER A MID CLOUD DECK SCENARIO...COMMENCING THIS               
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE             
MID CLOUD DECK IS DUE TO THE PRESENT TRACK OF GUSTAV...WHICH SHOULD             
KEEP BAND OF PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF                
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/REESE                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
948 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LOW MOVING THRU NE ND THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AREA              
OVER NE ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. AREA OF RAIN SPREADING SLOWLY                
EAST AND COORD WITH WFO DLH TO UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NW MN                
NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN                 
COVERAGE OVER NE ND OVERNIGHT. SE ND/WCNTRL MN WILL BE ON THE SRN               
EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS WITH MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS STAYING NORTH OF               
A JMS-FAR-DTL-PKD LINE THRU 12Z. WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FORSEE               
LITTLE TEMP FALL OVERNIGHT WITH ALL SITES 46-50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.               
THIS DID REQUIRE RAISING LOWS IN DVL BASIN AS PREV FCST OF AROUND               
40-42 SEEMED TOO LOW BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS WILL LOWER CLOUDS FORM/MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT               
ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW. RUC HINTS AT THE MVFR DECK THAT WAS OVER              
MINOT-ESTEVAN AREA TODAY RE-DEVELOPING OVER NE ND AFTER 09Z SO                  
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF. ALSO DID THIS AS WELL FOR NW MN CLOSER                
TO 12Z.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST            
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH W ND INTO            
CENTRAL SD. KMVX SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA MAINLY IN NE ND NEAR DVL WITH            
ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS ARE                
ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS SYSTEM TIMING...SO ENDED            
UP LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AS THE COMPROMISE MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE              
FORECAST.                                                                       
THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE TONIGHT AND FRI. THUS...EXPECT PCPN TO                 
DRIFT SE AS WELL. LIMITED INSOLATION TODAY HAS KEPT INSTABILITY DOWN            
AND HAVE ONLY SEEN A COUPLE OF LTG STRIKES IN NW MN THIS                        
AFTERNOON...WHERE THEY DID SEE MORE SUNSHINE EARLIER. ANY THREAT                
FOR TSRA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS PEAK HEATING PASSES.                
CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT JUST SHRA IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.                      
ON FRI...THE LOW MOVES INTO MN AND WEAKENS...WITH NW FLOW EXPECTED              
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE               
PRIMARY FACTOR IN DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSOLATION TO             
PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ON FRI AFTERNOON OR NOT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME             
WEAK INSTABILITY...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION IN FORECAST FOR NOW.                   
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI                
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ND ON                      
SAT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE AREA BY SAT                      
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500MB TROF ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA              
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW...APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT NE              
ND AND NW MN WILL BE IN THE BEST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL                
RAINFALL THROUGH SUN.                                                           
LONG TERM [MON-THU]...                                                          
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION LOOKS TO BE E OF THE FA                
BY MON MORNING. COULD BE SOME WEAK RIDGING IN ITS WAKE WITH                     
ANOTHER TROUGH SET TO DROP DOWN BY THU. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST                
FOR MON AND TUE...THEN A FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME FROM                 
WED INTO THU. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THIS TIME                  
FRAME. NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND THE              
NATIONAL DISCUSSIONS ARE FAVORING THE ECMWF TODAY. TEMPS STILL                  
LOOK TO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/NG                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
228 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAKENING AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO             
AND THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT                
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF                           
GUSTAV...MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATED INCREASED CAPE OVER WEST THIS AFTERNOON              
AND WITH WEAK FRONT SAGGING INTO AREA FROM THE NW TODAY WOULDN`T                
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR              
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO WESTERN ZONES                 
AFTER 18Z. ONE FACTOR WORKING AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION                 
WOULD BE A BIT DRIER AIR TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS                  
THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.              
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S.               
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE                  
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
COLD FRONT WORKS IN THIS EVENING AND STALLS N OF THE OHIO                       
RIVER...WORKING NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF GUSTAV             
ARE PROGGED TO TRACK SSW-NNE OVER INDIANA ON FRIDAY WITH THE SFC                
LOW. A BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS              
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INTO OHIO. THIS MAY REMAIN                  
FURTHER WEST OVER INDIANA IF HANNA KEEPS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...BUT            
LATEST RUNS ARE A BIT FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD MAKE THE LEFTOVER                
GUSTAV REMNANTS MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO OHIO. SERN FCST AREA MAY NOT              
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.                     
TEMPS ON THURS AND FRI SHOULD BE WARMEST IN THE SE WHERE DRIER AIR              
AND LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT STRONGER HEATING.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
DID NOT FAVOR ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY                    
NIGHT AS THE PATH OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED WITH              
LATER FORECASTS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ANY LEFTOVERS WILL MOVE                
EAST WITH HANNA AND DRY OUT OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR              
WITH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS BEING PROGGED              
FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS AS A COLD FRONT                   
STRETCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MONDAY AND MORESO               
ON TUESDAY. ADDED A CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY              
DRY. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                   
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REGION GETTING PASSED TO THE             
WEST AND EAST BY GUSTAV AND HANNA RESPECTIVELY...THEN A POTENTIAL               
PATTERN CHANGE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS COOLER AIRMASS INVADES OH VLY/GRT              
LKS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT                   
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV AND HANNA AND IMPACTS TO THE REGION. OH VLY WILL             
REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ELONGATED UPR RIDGE WITH ORIGINS IN THE WRN                
ATLC OCEAN AS HANNA APPCHS SE CONUS AND REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LINK UP              
WITH A FRNTL BNDRY TO NORTH/WEST OF REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE                
RIDGE IS PROBLEMATIC FOR ALLOWING DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCD              
WITH GUSTAV TO WORK INTO FCST AREA...AS REMNANT LOW IS ESSENTIALLY              
FORCED NORTHEAST INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS AND AROUND THE RIDGE.                   
COMPLICATING MATTERS IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HANNA WHICH SHOULD LIFT               
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE                      
FRI...THEN GET PICKED UP BY UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL CONUS IN WAKE OF                
AFOREMENTIONED FRNTL BNDRY.                                                     
WHILE THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...THE INTERACTION OF ALL              
OF THESE DIFFERENT FEATURES MENTIONED ABV ARE WORKING AGAINST                   
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACRS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE                 
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PASS NORTHWEST              
OF FCST AREA ON FRI...BELIEVE STRENGTH OF THE UPR RIDGE WILL                    
ESSENTIALLY HOLD FRNTL BNDRY IN PLACE TO WEST AND FORCE WHAT IS LEFT            
OF GUSTAV INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS. MEANWHILE...MODELS TIGHTLY                    
CLUSTERED ON TRACK OF HANNA THRU THE CAROLINAS N/NE INTO THE                    
APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MRNG. WHILE THE WESTERN                     
PERIPHERY OF THE STEADIER RAIN ASSOCD WITH HANNA MAY GRAZE EASTERN              
COUNTIES FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THE SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE                     
WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA            
DRY AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. TO SUM IT UP...IT                   
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE FCST AREA IS SIMPLY GOING TO BE IN THE             
WRONG LOCATION TO TAP INTO ANY OF THE COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH              
EITHER GUSTAV OR HANNA. A SHAME TOO CONSIDERING AREA COULD REALLY               
USE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS. WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL                   
MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FRI INTO SAT.  HAVE                  
PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES FRI NIGHT/SAT AS              
HANNA PASSES BY.                                                                
AFOREMENTIONED FRNTL BNDRY WILL FINALLY SWING THRU FCST AREA SAT                
NIGHT/ERLY SUN ONCE HANNA MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...                
WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS TAKING ALL OF THE MOISTURE...BNDRY MAY                
COME THRU DRY. FROPA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS AND TAKE EDGE               
OFF THE HEAT...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. A                   
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE OH VLY MON AFTN/NIGHT...WITH             
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SPREADING ACRS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR                 
TUES. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE GULF MOISTURE FEED TO TAP INTO...SO              
WILL ONLY INDICATE LO CHC POPS ATTM.                                            
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M/U80S ON FRI AND DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF                   
CLOUDS...SOME LOCATIONS ACRS THE SOUTH COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEG.              
HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY MON...WITH PLEASANT AFTN             
HIGHS ON TUES IN THE 70S IN WAKE OF FROPA.  LOWS GENERALLY IN THE               
60S WILL SCALE BACK INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
NAM REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH ATMOSPHERE. RIGHT NOW               
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND WONT MENTION ANY TS OR                            
CB...ESPECIALLY AT KDAY. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER                
20Z BUT EXPECT TO SEE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES.              
MIGHT SEE SOME BKN AC IN KDAY AS H7 MOISTURE INCREASES. LIFT AHEAD              
FNT WEAKENS A LITTLE AROUND 00Z AS FOCUS SHIFT FAR W NR LOW CENTER              
AS IT LIFT N. STILL MIGHT BE A FEW HIGH CU/LOW AC ACRS THE N OVER               
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. BKN CI SHOULD OVERRUN THE TAFS AFT 00Z                 
AHEAD OF LOW.                                                                   
OUTLOOK...TSTM POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PARKER                                                               
NEAR TERM...PARKER                                                              
SHORT TERM...FRANKS                                                             
LONG TERM...FRANKS/RYAN                                                         
AVIATION...PARKER                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1157 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT                 
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE TROPICAL STORM HANNA BEGINS               
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS                 
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. A               
COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
NOT A LOT GOING ON TODAY...JUST A SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER                
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO PA....MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY DAY               
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. ALSO ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE AS 850 TEMPS                   
18-20C...1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTING 80S TO LOWER 90S                 
EVERYWHERE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...                          
FRIDAY WILL AT LEAST START OFF FAIR AS THE LAST OF THE NOSE OF                  
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS TOUGH OVER THE STATE. BETWEEN A WEAK FRONT                  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND POTENTIAL MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM               
HANNA OVER THE SE...DID SNEAK IN SOME VERY SMALL CHC POPS OVER THE              
NW AND SE BY DAY`S END. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH HOWEVER              
THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. IT WILL              
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR PROBABLY THE LAST DAY IN OUR RECENT               
STRING.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
ALL EYES TURN TO HANNA AFTER FRIDAY. AS OF 07Z...SATELLITE SHOTS                
DON`T EXACTLY DEPICT A FEROCIOUS LOOKING STORM. THE CONVECTION IS               
ALL BUT ABSENT AND THE STRUCTURE IS VERY ASYMMETRICAL...STRETCHED               
VERY EAST TO WEST. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE VICINITY DO SHOW SOME                  
30KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND THE DISTANCE FROM THE STORM INDICATES                  
ITS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT INTENSITY CHANGES              
WILL TEND TO BE SLOW.                                                           
MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE STORM UP OR JUST                     
INLAND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER A LANDFALL IN THE                       
CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SAT MORNING. AS IS USUALLY                 
THE CASE WITH REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONES IN PA...DON`T THINK THE                 
WIND WILL BE THE REAL ISSUE...RATHER THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.              
THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ALL POINT TO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                 
RAIN OVER MY SERN ZONES. COARSER MODEL ENSEMBLE PLUMES PREDICTABLY              
SHOW MORE MODEST VALUES...AVERAGING OUT THE EXTREME SOLUTIONS.                  
SREFS SHOW ON AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL                 
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 1.50" OVER MY FAR SERN ZONES. THE GEFS PLUMES               
SHOW EVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH UNDER .25" LOCALLY TO AROUND 1"               
OVER THE SE. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL SHOW 2 INCHES OR MORE FROM                  
HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EAST. USING SOME SLIGHTLY TWEAKED HPC NUMBERS              
I CAME UP WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM NEAR 2" IN THE SE TO ABOUT .25              
LOCALLY...WITH ANOTHER .30 OR SO POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CLOSEST TO                
AN APPROACHING FRONT. SMALL CHANGES IN HANNA`S EVENTUAL                         
TRACK AND INTENSITY COULD RESULT IN PRETTY BIG VARIATIONS IN MY                 
CURRENT FORECAST. IT`S STILL QUITE EARLY IN THE GAME GIVEN THE                  
STORM`S LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND DISTANCE FROM LANDFALL.                        
AFTER HANNA...HIGH PRESSURE PROMISES RELATIVE TRANQUILITY INTO AT               
LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                  
TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE LOSE THE BIG                   
UPPER RIDGE AND IT GETS REPLACED BY SOME WEAK TROFFING.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR IN MANY LOCATIONS AS OF               
11Z. RUC13 DATA SUGGESTS THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z.                    
A DYING COLD FRONT OVR LK ERIE ATTM IS FCST TO BECOME NEARLY                    
STATIONARY ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER LATER TDY. LIMITED MSTR AND                   
WEAK FORCING INVOF OF THE FNTL BNDRY SUGGESTS A VERY LOW PROB OF                
PCPN /10% OR LESS/ IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTN. VFR FLYING                     
CONTINUES TERMINAL/WIDE WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WX CU.                             
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS                    
WEDGED OVER THE REGION IN BTWN NWD MOVG GRT LKS LOW /REMNANTS OF                
GUSTAV/ AND APPROACHING HANNA FM THE SERN MID ATLC. THE HIGH                    
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE OVERCOME BY DEEPER MSTR ASSOC WITH HANNA FRI               
NGT THRU SAT...WHICH IS FCST TO EVENTUALLY SLIDE NEWD ALONG THE                 
ERN SEABOARD. LOOK FOR THE BEST CHC FOR RNFL AND ASSOC ADVERSE                  
FLYING CONDS LATE FRI NITE AND SAT...ESP OVER ERN SECTIONS.                     
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY                 
NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO THE REGION.                               
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE                                                              
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/GARTNER                                                     
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...LACORTE                                                             
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
958 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO ADD HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION LINE ALONG AND WEST OF                
A WALNUT RIDGE AR TO MEMPHIS TO COFFEEVILLE MS LINE TONIGHT. WILL               
ADJUST OTHER ELEMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
APPEARS THE TORNADO THREAT IS DECREASING IN AND NEAR THE TORNADO                
WATCH AREA...WHILE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREATS ARE                
INCREASING.                                                                     
AT 945 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...RAIN WAS                  
OCCURRING WEST OF A PARAGOULD AR TO HOUSTON MS LINE. A TORNADO                  
WATCH WAS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MARIANNA AR TO               
COLDWATER MS TO CALHOUN CITY MS LINE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV                
WAS OVER SW AR SLOWLY MOVING NE.                                                
FIRST...APPEARS THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LIMITED FOR THE REST OF                
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN STABILIZING THE AIR IN AND NEAR THE                
WATCH AREA. THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. THE LACK OF                       
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN BARRIER TO DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR              
IS ABUNDANT. SUPPOSED IF MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL MS WITH                 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 78/79 AND 73/74 DEWPOINTS COULD GET                 
INTO NORTH MS...CHANCES FOR TORNADOES WOULD INCREASE...BUT THIS                 
IS UNLIKELY. THINK ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES ARE UNLIKELY.                     
SECOND...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER                    
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ROUGHLY ABOUT 30 MILES EAST AND                 
WEST OF A WEST MEMPHIS AR TO CHARLESTON MS LINE...INCLUDING                     
MEMPHIS... TUNICA...AND BATESVILLE. LATEST RUC/NAM MODELS IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AREA                  
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BASICALLY THE NARROW LINE OF HEAVY                  
RAIN OVER CENTRAL MS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST. GREENVILLE MS HAS              
RECORDED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 6 PM CDT. THIS BAND OF                 
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAY                 
PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE               
NEEDED.                                                                         
THE LOW WITH GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...                  
REACHING NE AR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL                   
NARROW THE AREA OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE              
BOUNDARY. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS                
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON THURSDAY NEAR THE                 
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.                             
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH SOUTH OF A                
FORREST CITY AR TO COLDWATER MS TO CALHOUN CITY MS LINE AS WELL AS              
ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR THESE AREAS.                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TORNADO AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.             
NEW TORNADO WATCH INCORPORATES THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE UNTIL              
2 AM CDT. WILL MONITOR FOR BRIEF SPINUPS ALONG A BAND OF SHOWERS                
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV. WIND/SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE                
WITH 0-1 KM SR HELICITY 350-550 M2/S2 IN THE BAND...BUT                         
INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY BELOW                      
300 J/KG.                                                                       
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT TORNADOES WILL                
OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINLY                  
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEFINITELY NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK AND                
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...EF2 OR GREATER...REMAIN VERY UNLIKELY.                  
THE BAND WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY                   
INTO THE MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO AREAS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT                
ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF TORNADO              
TOUCHDOWNS AND DAMAGE OCCURS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AT THIS                 
TIME...THINK THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT                
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUS THINK CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL            
WATCHES REMAIN LOW.                                                             
HEAVY RAIN IN THE BAND WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST               
OF A JONESBORO AR TO COFFEEVILLE MS LINE...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES AND              
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...850 MB 45                
KTS AND GREATER...WILL FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAND                
AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL RATE OF 1 INCH OR GREATER PER HOUR. AS                 
THE BAND SHIFTS EAST...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WILL KEEP UPDATING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS              
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM GUSTAV. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...RAIN AMOUNTS              
HAVE NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...                
BUT A GENERAL SOAKING RAIN. AT DISCUSSION TIME...THE LOW LEVEL                  
CENTER OF WHAT WAS GUSTAV WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST AR. THIS                  
CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT ON LONG RANGE KNQA                
RADAR REFLECTIVITY.                                                             
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE                    
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A                   
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT EAST THROUGH THE                     
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY. FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK...AS WILL              
BE UPPER SUPPORT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW. LOW LEVEL                  
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THE NAM TO REACH AS HIGH AS 800                       
J/KG...IN A NARROW AXIS EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.              
THIS IS REASONABLE...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING. WILL                  
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY. MAY HAVE TO               
TRIM THURSDAY POPS FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IF THE DRY AIR OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FILTERS IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...OR                
IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAIL TO APPEAR.                                         
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE                
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. BESIDES ALLOWING A DRY CONTINENTAL SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH...THIS UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF                
WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IKE. TO                 
WHAT EXTENT...IT/S A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL. THE GFS ECMWF CONTINUE              
TO BRING IKE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...CURING IT NORTH JUST AS IT               
APPROACHES MIAMI. ECMWF CURIOUSLY APPEARS TO LIFT THE LONGWAVE TROF             
OUT...FLATTENING THE FLOW...BEFORE TURNING IKE. NOT COMPLETELY                  
CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FORECASTS AND                
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.                                  
IKE/S ULTIMATE PATH NOTWITHSTANDING...IT APPEARS DRIER AND A                    
LITTLE COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND...              
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MEM  72  80  67  82 / 100  60  30  10                                           
MKL  72  82  65  80 /  50  50  40  10                                           
JBR  72  79  63  81 / 100  80  20  10                                           
TUP  72  83  69  84 /  50  40  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MBS/PWB                                                                         
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1143 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...HAS DEVELOPED           
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING IN               
AREA OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST             
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KAMA/KGUY. MENTION            
OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACCORDINGLY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN           
ABOVE 3 KFT ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR            
CIGS AT KGUY...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE               
NIGHT AT KAMA. ANY LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z ALTHOUGH THE            
NAM MODEL IS KEEPING THESE LOW CLOUDS IN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT            
KAMA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. NORTH WINDS WILL                
INCREASE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE            
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY            
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 01Z...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10             
KTS FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION.                                          
JOHNSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL FCSTS...WITH UPDATE TO TEXT PRODUCTS            
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  HAVE REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF            
TNGT.  HAVE ELIMINATED MENTION OF THUNDER.  HAVE ELIMINATED MENTION             
OF HEAVY RAIN.  HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS.                                       
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN WEAK...WITH FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR               
DYNAMIC FORCING.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS WELL S OF FCST                  
AREA...WITH LITTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER PNHDLS.  MID LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...INSTBY IS WANING...AND CURRENT RADAR                 
TRENDS INDICATE NO STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING WEAK SPARSE ECHOES.                
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLGTLY TNGT...ELSE WOULD PULL            
POPS ENTIRELY.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                  
COCKRELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE WILL                  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY              
DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD          
FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SHOULD STAY IN             
THE 12 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE TRICKY PART OF THIS             
FORECAST IS WHAT TO DO WITH LOW CIGS. THE DRIER AIR PRESENT ACROSS              
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW               
EXPANSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT                 
FORECAST FOR KDHT IS VFR. I HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW LATER THIS EVENING OF           
MVFR CIGS AT KGUY...BUT VFR GENERALLY AFTER 05Z. FOR KAMA...I OPTED             
TO DEPICT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS FROM 03Z TO 15Z GIVEN THE AGREEMENT              
BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE SOME                   
TEMPORARY BREAKS GIVEN THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE UPSLOPE BUT              
MORE FROM THE NORTH. IF THESE CIGS DO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEY             
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN           
BY 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD RELAX BY MID AFTERNOON.                     
JOHNSON                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...BRINGING COOLER AND              
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS. UP ABOVE THIS LAYER...MOIST AND              
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST AND MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A NARROW BAND           
OF MOISTURE...STREAMING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE MIDWEST U.S. BY            
WAY OF THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE LIFTING                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT COULD TRACK             
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. WE WILL KEEP THE POPS GOING              
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION BY SUNRISE.                
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW PACE OF STORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS             
STILL POSSIBLE.                                                                 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE EXITING           
GUSTAV. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW THE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...               
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...EDGING TOWARDS FALL LIKE WEATHER.                
AFTER INTENSE LOCAL COLLABORATION...WE UNDERCUT THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR            
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FAVORING THE FWC AND MET VALUES. THERE IS            
STILL A POTENTIAL TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT             
BASED ON LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND LESS CLOUDS.                                     
NEXT ACTION OCCURS ON FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE               
PANHANDLES. MODELS DIFFERED WITH THE TIMING THOUGH LEANED ON GFS AND            
ECMWF AGREEMENT AND RECENT PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS             
THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE INTRODUCED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD             
COVER BUT KEPT IT DRY SINCE THE FORCING MAY STAY NORTH.                         
NUNEZ                                                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE INFLUENCES OF A             
RECENT COLD FRONT CONTINUE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL ON                
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES                 
OVER THE PANHANDLES.                                                            
NUNEZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/03                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
315 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERING SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING             
SE ACROSS SRN WYOMING ATTM. 80KT JET CORE NOSING INTO NW CO WHILE               
RUC QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOWING MODEST ASCENT OVER NERN CO              
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.  CORRESPONDING 88D SHOWING MAIN SWAWTH OF                
BANDED PRECIP FROM LONGMONT TO NEW RAYMER BUT APPEARS TO BE                     
WEAKENING WITH LACK OF SIGNIFIANT MSTR. THIS SWATH OF LIGHT TO                  
MODERATE PRECIP WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT OVER THE DENVER AREA BEFORE            
LIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE STILL                
SOME SECONDARY AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WY...SO WILL KEEP THE                    
SCATTERED POPS THIS AM. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST...MOST OF THE PRECIP             
WILL END LATER THIS AM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SERLY THIS AFTN.                                    
THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CLIPS NERN CO LATER TNT WITH             
SOME WEAK ASCENT. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF...ESP OVER THE            
FAR NERN CORNER. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR LATER TNT.                          
.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN IT BECOMES WESTERLY SUNDAY.  AN UPPER             
TROUGH STAYS TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
TIME.  A JET MAXIMUM NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON                 
SATURDAY.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE FOR THE             
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...                          
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE IS SOME LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.                 
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS LATE                
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THAT MOISTURE                   
DOESN`T GET IN HERE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.  THE ALPINE AREAS ARE                 
FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT.              
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.80 INCH OVER THE                 
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE IS A SLIGHT THETA-E AXIS            
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.                 
THERE IS ANOTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT                 
PLAINS.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER             
30S TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH ALL THE PERIODS.  FOR CAPE              
...THERE IS VERY LITTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY            
NIGHT.  BY LATE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS SOME OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND               
ADJACENT PLAINS.  THE QPF FIELDS SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE                    
RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE LAPSE RATE            
FIELDS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR MUCH OF            
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WELL INTO SUNDAY.  THE HIGH COUNTRY AND              
IMMEDIATE PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED FOR SUNDAY               
LATE IN THE DAY.  FOR POPS...WILL LEAVE 0%S GOING SATURDAY INTO                 
SUNDAY.  WILL ADJUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S POPS TO JUST 10%S IN SOME OF            
THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS ONLY.  FOR                     
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-7 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S.                 
SUNDAY`S COOL OFF A BIT...THE MOST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.  FOR              
THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER                 
TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...THEN ZONAL                
FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATER            
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY.  A DECENT SURGE OF UPSLOPE IS PROGGED INTO            
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY MORNING.  WILL MAKE FEW ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THESE LATER DAYS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL AIRPORTS WILL SEE VARYING CIGS THIS AM...AND                  
EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND              
TNT. NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE THIS AFTN.                   
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
SWE/RJK                                                                         
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF                
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA                      
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF               
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR                             
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE                  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT                   
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID                         
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY              
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE                   
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK               
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS                
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING                 
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL                 
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM                   
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY                 
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY                
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS                    
BETTER FORECAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STRATUS AND MOIST                 
GROUND IN THE KFOE/KTOP...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG DEVELOPING                 
IN THESE SITES THROUGH 12Z. DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS                   
SHALLOW FOG AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME AC AND CIRRUS                     
ARRIVING TOWARDS SUNRISE SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE              
FOG. DRIER GROUND...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE                  
CLOUDS IN KMHK WAS THE REASON FOR KEEPING FOG OUT OF THE 06Z                    
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGING TRENDS.                    
WILL GO WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT KFOE/KTOP...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR                  
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z WITH INCREASING AC CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE                       
APPROACHES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE KMHK AREA...BUT                  
WITH VFR CIGS6-10KFT. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES BY 00Z...EXPECT                     
LINGERING AC SCT-BKN100 AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT                      
THROUGH 06Z/SAT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
358 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.                
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAKING LANDFALL             
ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING....BEFORE ACCELERATING            
NORTHEASTWARD TO ATLANTIC CANADA BY LATE SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CHANGES TO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AFTER CONFERENCE CALL THIS                     
MORNING WITH NHC.                                                               
GFS/RUC IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ENHANCED IR IMAGERY OF              
BANDING DVLMNT ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF HANNA. DECENT FORCING WITH               
HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX VALUES DVLPS AS OUTER BAND OF HANNA TO THE                 
MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA FROM THE SSE THIS MORNING.                              
HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH LOWER 80S NEAR/ALONG            
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.                                                        
FIRST OUTER BAND OF SHRAS/ISOL TSRA WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA            
THIS AFTN/EVE WITH A DRY SLOT DVLPG BEHIND INITIAL BAND LATE                    
EVE/ERLY OVRNT. LOOK FOR AN AVG OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH              
WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY             
NEARING AN INCH.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
GFS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE FLUX DIV DVLPG BTWN 03Z-14Z OVER            
SWRN 2/RDS OF THE CWA (S-N) AS INTERSECTION OF E-SE FLOW AT H92                 
CONVERGE. IN TURN THIS IS ALSO WHERE HIGHEST H70 THETA E VALUES ARE             
TO BE FCSTD. ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                 
HANNA THINK ENHANCED FORCING DVLPS AS ASSOC TRAILING FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY FROM GUSTAV TRIES TO APPROACH THE RGN FROM THE WEST. THIS              
IS FAIRLY A REASONABLE SCENARIO WHICH LATEST HPCQPF GUIDANCE IS ALSO            
IN AGREEMENT. DRYER AIR STARTS TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM              
FROM THE SW AT MID LVLS AS SAT PROGRESSES PUSHING AREA OF HEAVIER               
RAINS TO OVER THE NNE SECTION OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING BAROCLINIC               
LEAF. ATTM...THINK BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES ON AVG WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN               
2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH HANNA (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE             
ENHANCED BANDING DVLPS). WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH               
THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE MORE TRICKY WITH MORE OF A CONVECTIVE AIRMASS              
OVER THE ERN THIRD...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS AREAS OF             
MOD/HVY RAINFALL. ATTM LOOKING AT AN AVG OF 1 TO 3 INCHES TO OCCUR              
(LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMTS POSSIBLE).                                           
AS WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH HIGH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES...LOOK FOR             
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT TO              
DVLP LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT OVER SE THIRD OF THE CWA WITH OUTER RAIN             
BANDS. SEE LATEST SPC SWODY1 FOR MORE INFO.                                     
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA             
AS HANNA NEARS/PASSES THROUGH THE RGN. SUST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH             
POTENTIAL GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...WILL ISSUE             
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING (FOUND IN HLS) FOR ONE COUNTY BUFFER              
ZONE WEST OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WATCH/WRNGS HEADLINES TO                
ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. FURTHER INLAND SUST WINDS WILL                
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AT                
TIMES.                                                                          
PRECIP EVENTUALLY ENDS AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RGN SAT                    
NIGHT/SUN AM (SW-NE).                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY IN                
THE WAKE OF HANNA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE MRNG.                     
MODELS/HPC HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD FRONT NOW MAINLY                  
LOOKING TO BE A TUE AFTN/EVENG EVENT. HAVE CONTD 30% CHC FOR                    
SHWRS/TSTMS TUE/TUE NGT. THEN GOING DRY ON WED EXCEPT FOR                       
LINGERING 20% POPS CLOSER TO STALLING BNDRY ACRS SOUTHERN ZONES.                
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG MON/TUE (MID/UPR                  
80S)...THEN A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WED/THU WITH               
MORE CLOUD CVR EXPECTED....AND POSSIBLE APPROACH OF NEXT TROPICAL               
SYSTEM (IKE) FROM THE SE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CNDTNS XCPT FOR LCL IFR AT SBY & ECG THRU 12Z FOR PTCHY FOG.                
OTW...TAF FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY HANNA OVER NXT 24-36 HRS.                   
HIGH/MID LVL CLD DECK OVRSPRDS RGN THIS AFTRN. MVFR CNDTNS XPCTD                
AFTR 21Z OR SO AS SHWRS SPREAD N FROM NC CSTL AREAS. ONLY PLACE I               
MENTIONED CB IS AT ECG LATE THIS AFTRN. CNDTNS RPDLY DETERIORATE                
THIS EVE AS IFR CNDTNS OVRSPRD RGN DUE TO RAIN / FOG. WNDS FIRST                
INCRS ALONG THE SERN CSTL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KTS XPCTD B4              
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WNDS THEN SPREAD ACROSS RGN BY LATE TONITE.                     
HANNA PROGGED TO MOVE RPDLY ACRS THE AREA SAT WITH GUSTY WNDS & OCNL            
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WINDS SAT NEAR THE COAST MAY REACH 25-35 WITH               
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND OVER RIC IN THE 15-30 KNOT RANGE.                         
CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM S TO N LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MAINLY VFR               
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOOMPANY THE               
NEXT COLD FRONT AROUND TUE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TRPLCL HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS HANNA MOVES NE AND AFFECTS RGN              
FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT EVE. WND GRIDS CONT TO FOLLOW TPC TRACK.             
WINDS STEADILY INCREASE TO TRPLCL STORM FORCE AFTR 06Z SAT STARTING             
OVER THE CURRITUCK SND/SRN COASTAL WATERS...THEN OVER THE SRN CHES              
BAY AND PRHAPS EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS BY                
LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN SAT. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS ON                
SAT...UP TO 11-15 FT OVER THE CSTL WATERS AND 4-5 FT OVER THE                   
BAY...WITH MOUTH OF THE BAY WAVES APPRCHG 8 FT.                                 
STORM SURGE BTWN 2 TO 4 FEET ABV NRML TIDE LEVELS XPCTD...ALONG WITH            
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES XPCTD SAT ALONG THE BEACHES OF              
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST AROUND              
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR ERLY SAT AFTRN. HANNA RPDLY             
PULLS NE OF MARINE AREA LATER SAT NGT. IPROVING CNDTNS EXPCTD SUN.              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR MDZ021>023.                                                            
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MDZ021>025.                                       
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR NCZ012.                                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR             
     NCZ012>014.                                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.                         
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR VAZ048-049-060>090-092.                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VAZ075-077-078-084>086-089>091-                   
     093>100.                                                                   
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR             
     VAZ072>074-076-081>083-088-092.                                            
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656.                   
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...LKB                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
406 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH                 
UPPER RIDGING OFF THE W COAST...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE                        
MIDWEST. NE MT IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH IN NW FLOW...WITH THE               
JETSTREAM REMAINING STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN USUAL FOR EARLY                 
SEP.                                                                            
THIS MORN...SOME LOCATIONS SHOW OBS THAT ARE NEARLY SATURATED.                  
THIS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. RUC SHOWS 95 PCT RH ACROSS           
ROUGHLY OUR NE QUARTER AT 12Z. WILL COMBINE THIS WITH THE OBS THAT              
HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 0-2F AT 3 AM TO ADD               
PATCHY EARLY MORN FOG MENTION. THIS WILL BE IN LOWER                            
MILK...MISSOURI...AND BIG MUDDY RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...                     
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORN...BUT IR SATELLITE CHANNEL                
SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL OVERCAST IN AB AND NC/NW                 
MT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR N THIS MORN. NO PRECIP EXPECTED               
FROM IT. OTHERWISE MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREES WARMING               
OVER YESTERDAY. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE               
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT                     
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A                 
FEW WEAK CELLS...MAINLY E. WILL GO WITH POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY               
WON`T SHOW AS WORDING IN TEXT PRODUCTS.                                         
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A MODERATE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW ACROSS                
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALL MODELS SHOW            
A FAIR AREA OF QPF. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T APPEAR ALL THAT WELL                     
ORGANIZED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT KEEPING               
IN MIND ALSO THAT TYPICALLY THESE SYSTEMS FROM THE NW ARE OFTEN                 
UNDERFORECAST FOR POPS. WITH 850 MB WINDS TO 20KT OR SO WITH WEAK               
COOL ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA SAT.                                                                   
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR N SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 543              
DM AND 850 TEMPS TO 5C. THIS IS AT LEAST AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS FEW             
COOL NIGHTS. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER AREA AND DEW POINTS LOWER THAN              
LATELY...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD 30S FOR LOWS...SOME TO AROUND                  
FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLDEST POCKETS. MEANWHILE.. INCREASING                 
CLOUDS IN OUR S. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON INTENSITY...BUT ALL                 
HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVE SE ALONG THE JETSTREAM THRU THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THESE OFTEN DO AFFECT OUR                     
SW...BUT SELDOM ELSEWHERE AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES. WILL GO WITH A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN SUN IN OUR SW. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS ALL               
AREAS SUN AS WELL. SIMONSEN                                                     
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF               
THE TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING                 
TREND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE                 
ON TUESDAY.                                                                     
MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFERENCES ON TRACKING A MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH         
AND COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS...00Z CANADIAN AND 12Z ECMWF HAD THE FRONT              
AND SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF               
HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE HAD THE MAIN                
PART OF THE WAVE AFFECTING NE MONTANA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR                       
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR                
SEVERAL RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN A WED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MENTION A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AND SHOWERS WED NIGHT.                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS WITH                   
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME TODAY AND               
TONIGHT. FOG REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING...WITH THE               
MOST LIKELY SITES BEING KOLF AND KSDY. BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 4K OR              
5K FT AGL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST              
WIND WILL BE AROUND 10 KT TODAY. LOOK FOR EITHER MID LEVEL OR LOW               
VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
714 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST AND AVIATION UPDATE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS/WX...TO EXTEND EASTERN EDGE OF POPS                  
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE COVERAGE A BIT TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS                
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BESIDES SHOWERS LACKING                      
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. MAY TAKE A BIT FOR COLUMN TO                      
SATURATE CONSIDERING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MONITORING VISBYS AT TOP AND FOE ATTM. EXPECT 1/2SM VISBYS TO                   
BREAK UP BY 14Z AS SUN COMES UP. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS                  
MORNING UNTIL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH IN THE                       
AFTERNOON AND BRINGS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. HAVE VCSH              
IN TAF SITES WAITING TO SEE IF DRY AIR EVAPS SHOWERS BEFORE THEY                
HIT THE GROUND. WILL PROBABLY NEED A PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP AT                  
SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. 67                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF                
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA                      
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF               
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR                             
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE                  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT                   
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID                         
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY              
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE                   
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK               
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS                
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING                 
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL                 
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM                   
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY                 
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY                
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS                    
BETTER FORECAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM               
FRIDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
937 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS PARTS OF                 
RANGE/SRN WI ZONES. ADDITIONALLY... SLOWER PROGRESSION OF                       
POPS/QPF/CLOUDS INTO NE ARROWHEAD AND ERN WI ZONES. LINEAR BAND OF              
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC/925 THETAE AXIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW.              
USING LATEST RUC13...THIS LOW LVL INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES VERY                   
SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH A TENDENCY TO STRENGTHEN OVER SCTRL WIS                
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER                 
THIS REGION LATER TODAY AS MDLS SUGGEST BEST 85H MSTR TRANSPORT                 
WILL PUSH INTO WISCONSIN. NAM40 FCST SBCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 500/1000       
J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35/40KTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC STATIONS REPORTING PATCHY FG THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT              
E TO SE WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH...CO-LOCATED WITH A POTENT SHORT             
WAVE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER NE NO DAK...PUSHES E INTO                 
WRN MN. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE VORT MAX/SFC LOW HAS BROUGHT SHRA                
TO NE NO DAK/NW MN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY NEAR             
BJI LIFTING NORTH AND EAST.                                                     
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE KEPT RUN TO RUN                
CONTINUITY. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWRD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION       
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND                  
OVER THE IRON RANGE AND INTO ADJACENT SRN CANADA...WITH WEAKER                  
FORCING IN THE SRN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN               
TIER OF COUNTIES TODAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST. QPF               
AMOUNTS WILL BE SCT AND GENERALLY LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW                    
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH. KEPT ISOLD TSRA WORDING THIS AFTRN.               
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH A FEW                 
HUNDRED J OF CAPE DEVELOP THIS AFTN TO SUPPORT ISOLD -TSRA THIS                 
AFTN...REMAINING WELL BLW SVR LVLS.                                             
THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE BROAD UPR LVL            
TROUGH THROUGH SAT. KEPT THE 20-30 POP FOR SHRA THROUGH THIS TIME               
FRAME. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL                    
TROUGH OVER MN AND THE WRN GREAT LKS REGION LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH              
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THE CHC FOR SHRA.                                     
AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WHILE         
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...SOME TEMPO MVFR-IFR CEILINGS            
MAY OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MOST             
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR                   
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KINL...WHERE THE BEST                 
OMEGA AND VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE FOUND. SOME THUNDER IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER                    
14Z...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS            
ARE WEAK. WITH A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE NORTH...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL            
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY AT                         
KDLH...THROUGH MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR-VLIFR                      
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH            
ABOUT 14Z TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN IN THESE AREAS...AND FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE MORNING            
HOURS. AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE OF A BROAD                       
TROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LESSEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES             
EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR KHYR THIS AFTERNOON.            
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN ALL AREAS AFTER 00Z...WITH JUST SOME                 
REMNANT SCATTERED CLOUDS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  64  47  71  47 /  30  20  30  30                                           
INL  64  46  67  40 /  70  20  30  40                                           
BRD  65  45  68  46 /  20  10  20  40                                           
HYR  68  45  70  43 /  20  30  20  30                                           
ASX  65  48  69  44 /  20  30  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
943 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                   
ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO FOR END OF PATCHY              
FOG. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WITH                
CLOUDS NUDGING TOWARD EASTERN MONTANA. AIRMASS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS               
YESTERDAY SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THAN              
YESTERDAY. ALSO MORE SUNSHINE...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER                       
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. EBERT                                                     
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE                
PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGING OFF THE W                         
COAST...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST. NE MT IS ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF TROUGH IN NW FLOW...WITH THE JETSTREAM REMAINING STRONGER AND                
FARTHER S THAN USUAL FOR EARLY SEP.                                             
THIS MORN...SOME LOCATIONS SHOW OBS THAT ARE NEARLY SATURATED.                  
THIS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. RUC SHOWS 95 PCT RH ACROSS           
ROUGHLY OUR NE QUARTER AT 12Z. WILL COMBINE THIS WITH THE OBS THAT              
HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 0-2F AT 3 AM TO ADD               
PATCHY EARLY MORN FOG MENTION. THIS WILL BE IN LOWER                            
MILK...MISSOURI...AND BIG MUDDY RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...                     
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORN...BUT IR SATELLITE CHANNEL                
SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL OVERCAST IN AB AND NC/NW                 
MT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR N THIS MORN. NO PRECIP EXPECTED               
FROM IT. OTHERWISE MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREES WARMING               
OVER YESTERDAY. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE               
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT                     
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A                 
FEW WEAK CELLS...MAINLY E. WILL GO WITH POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY               
WON`T SHOW AS WORDING IN TEXT PRODUCTS.                                         
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A MODERATE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW ACROSS                
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALL MODELS SHOW            
A FAIR AREA OF QPF. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T APPEAR ALL THAT WELL                     
ORGANIZED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT KEEPING               
IN MIND ALSO THAT TYPICALLY THESE SYSTEMS FROM THE NW ARE OFTEN                 
UNDERFORECAST FOR POPS. WITH 850 MB WINDS TO 20KT OR SO WITH WEAK               
COOL ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA SAT.                                                                   
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR N SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 543              
DM AND 850 TEMPS TO 5C. THIS IS AT LEAST AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS FEW             
COOL NIGHTS. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER AREA AND DEW POINTS LOWER THAN              
LATELY...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD 30S FOR LOWS...SOME TO AROUND                  
FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLDEST POCKETS. MEANWHILE.. INCREASING                 
CLOUDS IN OUR S. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON INTENSITY...BUT ALL                 
HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVE SE ALONG THE JETSTREAM THRU THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THESE OFTEN DO AFFECT OUR                     
SW...BUT SELDOM ELSEWHERE AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES. WILL GO WITH A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN SUN IN OUR SW. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS ALL               
AREAS SUN AS WELL. SIMONSEN                                                     
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF               
THE TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING                 
TREND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE                 
ON TUESDAY.                                                                     
MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFERENCES ON TRACKING A MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH         
AND COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS...00Z CANADIAN AND 12Z ECMWF HAD THE FRONT              
AND SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF               
HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE HAD THE MAIN                
PART OF THE WAVE AFFECTING NE MONTANA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR                       
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR                
SEVERAL RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN A WED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MENTION A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AND SHOWERS WED NIGHT.                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS WITH                   
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.                 
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 4K OR 5K FT AGL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON                
INTO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE AROUND 10 KT TODAY.                  
LOOK FOR EITHER MID LEVEL OR LOW VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.              
FRANSEN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FOR 18 UTC AVIATION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY MID LEVELS PER 12Z TOP SOUNDING MAKING PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT              
TO REACH THE GROUND. MAY SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY                  
DROP TO MVFR RANGE...BUT SEE LITTLE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCLUSION                 
GIVEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER         
THIS EVENING...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY              
ALLOW FOR BR DEVELOPMENT AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                  
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME IN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF                
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA                      
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF               
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR                             
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE                  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT                   
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID                         
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY              
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE                   
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK               
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS                
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING                 
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL                 
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM                   
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY                 
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY                
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS                    
BETTER FORECAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING/65                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING                  
CENTERED OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ON THE E AND W COASTS.                   
SHRTWV/DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE MOVING              
RDPLY NE THRU SE CAN...BUT A SUBTLE LO PRES TROF REMAINS OVER THE FA            
ON ITS WRN FLANK. RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A GOOD AMT OF LLVL MSTR              
REMAINS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H75                
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SO QUITE A BIT OF SC IS PRESENT DESPITE DIURNAL               
HTG THAT HAS LIFTED CLD BASE AND ENDED ANY -DZ THAT WAS OBSVD                   
EARLIER. THE COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER LK SUP RELATED TO              
THE LK BREEZE CIRCULATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FM              
THE NW THAT WAS SHOWN BEST ON THE 00Z RAOBS FM INL/YPL HAS TENDED TO            
BREAK UP THE CLD MORE AGGRESSIVELY THERE AND NEAR THE LK SHORES.                
NEXT SHRTWV OF CONCERN IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS NRN MN ALONG WITH AN            
ASSOCIATED SFC LO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLD TO THE N AND W OF                
THIS LO...AND THE ERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLD IS MOVING TOWARD WRN              
LK SUP. SOME SCT -SHRA ARE AS FAR E AS DLH IN AXIS OF HIER SPECIFIC             
HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H7) BY THE 12Z NAM              
F6. BUT OVERALL PCPN COVG SEEMS LIMITED BY THE DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON            
THE 12Z MPX RAOB.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND SAT)...                                        
FOR TNGT...12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHRTWV NOW OVER NRN MN SHEARING ENEWD               
AND WEAKENING A BIT TO NEAR ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z SAT AS UPR TROF AXIS             
REMAINS SITUATED IN THE PLAINS. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO IS PROGGED              
TO REACH THE WRN SHORE OF THE U.P. BOTH MODELS SHOW AXIS OF HIEST               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NOW OVER MN AND ON THE 300K SFC SHIFTING INTO THE             
W THIS EVNG THEN THE ECNTRL BY 12Z SAT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON            
THE 295-305K SFCS/QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE H85-5 LYR. GFS IS A BIT MORE             
GENEROUS WITH QPF...BUT PREFER THE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST NAM GIVEN               
THE MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB THAT IS LIMITING PCPN             
COVG NOW. STILL...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO 40 BEFORE FAIRLY                
AGGRESSIVE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON THE SE             
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK OVERSPRDS THE FA. GOING FCST MIN TEMPS ARE            
FAIRLY IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS/ETA/NGM MOS GUIDANCE...SO NO SGNFT               
CHGS MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                        
ON SAT...THE DEEPER MSTR ALF WL IMPACT THE ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG                  
BEFORE THE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IS FCST TO CLR ERY BY 18Z OR SO AS            
THE SHRTWV NR ISLE ROYALE/SFC LO OVER WRN LK SUP AT 12Z SHIFTS NE               
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE W...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHETHER ENUF LLVL MSTR             
WL LINGER TO ALLOW THE REDVLPMNT OF MORE SHRA WITH DIURNAL HTG. IF              
THE TIME OF YEAR WERE CLOSER TO THE SUMMER SOLSTICE...THAT WOULD BE             
A REAL CONCERN. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDE THE PRESENCE OF                    
LINGERING LO CLD IN THE MRNG WHICH DVLPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE                
DRYING ALF LATE TNGT AND THAT WOULD LIMIT SFC HTG. CONSIDERING THE              
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MID LVL DRY AIR EXHIBITED IN GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING...BELIEVE REDVLPMNT OF                  
DIURNAL SHRA IN THE AFTN IS A LO POTENTIAL. SO ELECTED TO CUT GOING             
GENERAL 30 POP TO NO MORE THAN 20.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THIS PERIOD REMAINS PLAGUED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES...MAKING SPECIFIC                
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT.  FOR THE LONG TERM                
THIS RESULTS IN AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS.                 
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD THANKS TO A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.  A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM              
IS FIGURED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES.  THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THUNDERSTORM                            
ACTIVITY...ALBEIT ISOLATED.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE                
WEST TO EAST OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE              
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO                   
STRENTHEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING.              
THIS SHOULD KEEP NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF            
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO AT LEAST MONDAY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK            
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW                
SETS UP AT 500MB.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY FOR THIS            
PERIOD...EXCLUDING SKY COVER WHICH NEEDED TO BE MINIMIZED A LITTLE              
MORE INITIALLY.  THIS WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLES...WITH A LEAN              
TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS.  FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                      
THOUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG                
DOMINATING. SOME SHRA WL ARRIVE LATER TNGT AS A LOW PRES MOVES FM MN            
INTO WRN LK SUP. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WHEN THE RA                 
ARRIVES...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LO CLD/FOG WL DVLP TOWARD WHEN THE RA            
ENDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF ABV THE LLVLS MOISTENED BY               
THE PCPN AND DIURNAL COOLING. THERE WL BE ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT              
ON SAT MRNG.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER               
NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN             
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NO                  
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON             
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25 KNOTS...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF...AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH             
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
513 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...MENTIONING PRECIPITATION                       
EVERYWHERE AND INTRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDER...AT LEAST THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT CROIX VALLEY WITH AN ACTIVE WARM              
FRONT ALONG THE INLAND COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND A                    
STRENGTHENING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE CASS LAKES AREA                    
EASTWARD TO JUST BELOW DULUTH AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SAINT CROIX               
RIVER HAS STIMULATED SMALLISH...SHALLOW BUT POTENT AND LONG LIVED               
SHOWERS DROPPING HALF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR ACROSS AT LEAST A                
DOZEN AREAS. WE DO NOT SEE LIGHTNING ATTM...BUT MIGHT SOON.                     
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT FASTER THAN AT THE SURFACE AS A               
DIGGING AND NEGATIVE-TILTED SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN TO SUPPORT THIS               
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEEPEENING NEGATIVELY-ORIENTED SURFACE LOW IS               
ALSO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER               
THE STRONGEST SHOWER AREAS. WE ARE STARTING WITH A RADICAL                      
MOISTENING OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST AND WILL BE LOOKING AT OTHER                   
PARAMETERS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC LOW NEAR PKD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELONGATED SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING NORTH TO BDE...AND SOUTH TOWARDS SAZ. MSAS INDICATES A               
WEAK SECONDARY PRESS FALL CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR RZN. THIS AGREES               
WELL WITH MDL FCST OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ELONGATING SE THIS                
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SE WISC             
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. PRECIP HAS BEEN MINIMAL            
AS FORCING IS WEAK. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING                     
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ENTERING SW CORNER OF CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE               
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. 4KM SPC NMM-WRF SIM REFL PRODUCT                
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS CLUSTER AND WORKS IT EAST THIS AFTERNOON                  
TOWARD TWIN PORTS....WEAKENING THE INTENSITY AS IT DOES. A CELL                 
DID PULSE TO 52DBZ AT 11K WITHIN PAST HR NEAR CASS LAKE BUT HAS                 
WEAKENED IN SUBSEQUENT SCANS. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS WE NEED 50DBZ               
CORES TO 16/17K TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HAIL. MARGINAL                      
PARAMETERS FOR SIG CONVECTION AS SFC/MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW                       
1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 35KTS IN BEST CAPE                     
VICINITY. HAVE LEFT ISO TRW IN FCST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO               
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR.                              
TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC PRESS TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN                 
ITASCA TO SAWYER COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL                 
CRAWL NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. PWS RIBBON            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF REMAINS               
FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL NEED TO ASSESS FOG/BR POTENTIAL BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE AS POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR SFC BDRY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT             
WINDS...MAY PROMOTE LOW VISIBILITIES.                                           
TOMORROW...LEANING WITH SREF SCENARIO WITH SUPPORT FROM EC/GFS.                 
THIS KEEPS POPS CONCENTRATED OVER NRN THIRD OF CWA WHERE DEEPER                 
LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY SFC                
BDRY. CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING AS BREAKS ARE LIKELY                       
PERIODICALLY IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON OVER SRN HALF              
OF CWA.                                                                         
EXTENDED...A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT MID LVL                    
DISTURBANCE SWEEPS INTO REGION SUNDAY MORNING.85H TEMPS DROP WITH               
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF SO TEMPS WILL COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUES. SLOW               
MODERATION THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY OFFSET ANY WARM            
ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO                                       
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED 15K-25K            
CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AT 5K-7K FEET.             
THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE LONGVILLE...TO GRAND                 
RAPIDS...TO BIGFORK AREA...AND OUT TOWARDS BEMIDJI AS OF 20Z. VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                           
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 15K FEET             
IN RAIN SHOWERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH              
THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...AND SO HAVE LEFT THE            
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT...THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...FROM KINL TO KHIB TO KDLH. HAVE             
MENTIONED SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS...WITH SOME FOG AND IFR/LIFR AT KHIB            
AND KHYR. TOMORROW...COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO                 
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THESE WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TIME FRAME.                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  47  70  47  60 /  40  20  10  50                                           
INL  46  66  40  60 /  30  30  40  40                                           
BRD  45  70  46  61 /  20  10  40  50                                           
HYR  45  69  43  64 /  40  10  10  50                                           
ASX  48  68  44  65 /  50  20  10  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
EOM/TL                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
238 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC LOW NEAR PKD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELONGATED SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING NORTH TO BDE...AND SOUTH TOWARDS SAZ. MSAS INDICATES A               
WEAK SECONDARY PRESS FALL CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR RZN. THIS AGREES               
WELL WITH MDL FCST OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ELONGATING SE THIS                
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SE WISC             
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. PRECIP HAS BEEN MINIMAL            
AS FORCING IS WEAK. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING                     
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ENTERING SW CORNER OF CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE               
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. 4KM SPC NMM-WRF SIM REFL PRODUCT                
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS CLUSTER AND WORKS IT EAST THIS AFTERNOON                  
TOWARD TWIN PORTS....WEAKENING THE INTENSITY AS IT DOES. A CELL                 
DID PULSE TO 52DBZ AT 11K WITHIN PAST HR NEAR CASS LAKE BUT HAS                 
WEAKENED IN SUBSEQUENT SCANS. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS WE NEED 50DBZ               
CORES TO 16/17K TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HAIL. MARGINAL                      
PARAMETERS FOR SIG CONVECTION AS SFC/MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW                       
1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 35KTS IN BEST CAPE                     
VICINITY. HAVE LEFT ISO TRW IN FCST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO               
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR.                              
TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC PRESS TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN                 
ITASCA TO SAWYER COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL                 
CRAWL NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. PWS RIBBON            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF REMAINS               
FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL NEED TO ASSESS FOG/BR POTENTIAL BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE AS POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR SFC BDRY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT             
WINDS...MAY PROMOTE LOW VISIBILITIES.                                           
TOMORROW...LEANING WITH SREF SCENARIO WITH SUPPORT FROM EC/GFS.                 
THIS KEEPS POPS CONCENTRATED OVER NRN THIRD OF CWA WHERE DEEPER                 
LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY SFC                
BDRY. CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING AS BREAKS ARE LIKELY                       
PERIODICALLY IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON OVER SRN HALF              
OF CWA.                                                                         
EXTENDED...A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT MID LVL                    
DISTURBANCE SWEEPS INTO REGION SUNDAY MORNING.85H TEMPS DROP WITH               
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF SO TEMPS WILL COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUES. SLOW               
MODERATION THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY OFFSET ANY WARM            
ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO                                       
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED 15K-25K            
CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AT 5K-7K FEET.             
THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE LONGVILLE...TO GRAND                 
RAPIDS...TO BIGFORK AREA...AND OUT TOWARDS BEMIDJI AS OF 20Z. VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                           
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 15K FEET             
IN RAIN SHOWERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH              
THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...AND SO HAVE LEFT THE            
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT...THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...FROM KINL TO KHIB TO KDLH. HAVE             
MENTIONED SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS...WITH SOME FOG AND IFR/LIFR AT KHIB            
AND KHYR. TOMORROW...COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO                 
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THESE WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TIME FRAME.                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  47  70  47  60 /  20  20  10  50                                           
INL  46  66  40  60 /  20  30  40  40                                           
BRD  45  70  46  61 /  10  10  40  50                                           
HYR  45  69  43  64 /  30  10  10  50                                           
ASX  48  68  44  65 /  30  20  10  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/GSF/KD                                                                   
</pre> mn