000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200830
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
AN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH
0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  
HECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR.  GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
HECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH
DISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER. 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL
BEND TO THE LEFT.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
HECTOR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200830
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
AN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH
0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  
HECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR.  GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
HECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH
DISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER. 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL
BEND TO THE LEFT.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
HECTOR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH