AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
402 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                              
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR             
A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.             
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH FASTER               
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OF STATES AS A SHORTWAVE                 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE                   
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO               
INDICATING DRIER AIR EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS                   
NORTHERN AND WESTERLY COLORADO ATTM. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO                   
OWNING TO LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING                  
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT              
READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 50S TO LOWER 60S              
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM.                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WARM AND              
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN TIER SHORT            
WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE NORTHERN                
HIGH PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM PUSHES LEE               
TROUGH OUT TO THE WESTERN KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MODEL            
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE              
WITH CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2C AND               
-4C AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 25 KTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO            
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE WITH H7 TEMPS BETWEEN               
14C AND 18C...THOUGH WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG WITH            
POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH POSSIBLY HELPING TO                  
BREAK CAP...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...COULD               
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS             
TO AROUND 50 MPH. ACROSS THE REST...WITH THE WARM AND DRIER AIR                 
ALOFT...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT SLIGHT            
POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN                    
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WITH THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING. WITH LESS                   
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARM WESTERLY FLOW                   
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS SOME 6-12F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS              
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMS TONIGHT.               
-MW                                                                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSRA...ESPECIALLY IF NAM`S 60F              
DEWPOINTS VERIFY. FOR NOW...SPREAD THE LOW POPS FOR TSRA EASTWARD               
ALONG THE NM BORDER...MIGHT NEED TO ADJUST THEM FARTHER NORTH                   
DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. ANOTHER HOT DAY                         
AREAWIDE...WITH VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE NOTED AT 700 MB.                 
STILL APPEARS STRONGER UPSLOPE SURGE WILL DEVELOP                               
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO STALL THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE                  
ARKANSAS RIVER...WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS                  
RUNS. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE...WHICH IS COVERED              
WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS. STILL NOT MUCH COOLING NOTED...THOUGH MAXES              
OVER THE EAST SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE                 
EASTERLY COMPONENT. BULK OF THE COOLER AIR AND PRECIPITATION NOW                
APPEARS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS BOTH NAM AND GFS               
SHOW NICE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE STATE                  
LATE THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN TIMING TROUBLES OF THE MODELS THE LAST                
FEW DAYS...LOW POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE FINE FOR                      
NOW...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF FRIDAY TURNS OUT COOLER AND               
WETTER THAN CURRENT SET OF GRIDS PORTRAY...AFTER ALL...THE                      
COLORADO STATE FAIR STARTS FRIDAY...WHICH SEEMS TO GUARANTEE A                  
LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH DRIER AND            
WARM AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
357 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN.                                                                 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH              
FASTER ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS UPPER LEVEL            
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ATTM. WATER VAPOR             
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY               
FLOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS             
EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS               
AND SATELLITE INDICATING IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND               
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR              
CIGS ACROSS EXTREME SE COLORADO ATTM.                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST THINKING AS             
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING DRIER WESTERLY ALOFT ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE REGION AS WESTERN WYOMING SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH             
PROXIMITY TO PASSING WAVE. MODELS INDICATING SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT               
WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 14-18C...AND WITH LESS CONVECTIVE                 
CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS             
THE PLAINS...WITH 60S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.                     
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE SUN THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES            
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATING WARM AIR ALOFT PERSISTING              
ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD MAINLY                 
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. -MW                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)                                                  
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS FIRST PIECE              
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN                     
ROCKIES. SHOULD BE WARMER AND DRIER ALL AREAS AS WEST WINDS PUSH                
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS.               
LEFT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME ISOLATED                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO               
DRY THE AIR MASS OUT THIS SUMMER. MIGHT SEE A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE              
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER JET PUSHES OUT INTO THE               
PLAINS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE OR COOL AIR ASSOCIATED               
WITH IT. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT                
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY EVENING AS               
MAIN UPPER JET PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE FRONT              
PUSH THROUGH THE EAST BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY MOIST              
UPSLOPE SURGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT                 
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING FOR              
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BOTH                    
WED/THU BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO               
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS BULK OF THE COOLING REMAINS NORTH.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EXTREME SE COLORADO TO                  
QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS             
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH VCTS                    
POSSIBLE FOR KCOS TAF BETWEEN 22-02Z. -MW                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
303 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA             
WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NOW AT 150 MPH, AT THE HIGH END OF CAT 4.              
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WWD AND              
SHOULD HAVE NO INFLUENCE OF THE FUTURE TRACK OF DEAN AS IT MOVES                
INTO DEEP S TX AND NE MEXICO BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP                
LAYER RIDGE OFF THE GA/SC COAST TO BUILD WWD ALONG THE ERN GULF                 
COAST, WITH THE AXIS JUST N OF THE FL BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,             
KEEPING DEAN SAFELY AT BAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED.                                                
THE MAIN WX STORY OUTSIDE THE MARINE AREA WILL BE A RETURN TO NEAR              
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT. WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE, CONVECTION              
SHOULD BE INHIBITED AND TEMPS WILL SOAR. THIS SHOULD BE A FAMILIAR              
SCENARIO FOR MOST. INLAND AREAS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S EACH OF THE            
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, WE ARE GOING FOR 100 AT TLH ON WED,                 
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THAT DATE. THROUGH THE 19TH, THE                 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST IS HOVERING JUST OVER 85            
DEGREES. THIS IS A ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE THE CURRENT RECORD FOR                  
HOTTEST AUGUST AT TLH, 84.2 IN 1999. LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE                  
FORECAST, THIS RECORD CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY, PENDING NO             
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANY TC.                                                     
1000-700 MB FLOW WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KT TODAY. WE BASED OUR POPS ON            
THIS REGIME (TYPE 6), BUT UNDERCUT THE CLIMO POPS AS THE PW ON THE              
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING IS ONLY 1.30 INCHES. THIS EQUATES TO A 20 POP             
ONLY FOR THE PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE AREA, WITH SOME OF THIS WORKING               
INTO SE AL LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO INCLUDED A 20 POP OVER THE SE BIG              
BEND IN ANTICIPATION OF THE E COAST SEA BREEZE MAKING IT THAT FAR W             
BEFORE DAY`S END. THIS SAME BOUNDARY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR            
THE ENTIRE BIG BEND THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR              
SW GA. NO MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR                 
TUE-WED.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN.                                             
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST, THANKS TO               
ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICS. A TROPICAL WAVE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS              
IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC. WE HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR               
NOW WHICH BRINGS THE FEATURE TO FL BY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING,               
WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER AIMING AT THE KEYS. THE LATEST (00Z MON)                 
ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM WWD MORE SLOWLY, WITH THE LOW CIRCULATION              
FURTHER TO THE N, PASSING N OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT. STAY TUNED.               
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT HOT AND DRY ON THU, THEN WE SHOW A VERY               
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POP, WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS BY SUN WHEN THE GFS               
SHOWS YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FL FROM THE E AND A                 
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO DIXIE FROM THE NW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRI.                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FIRST COUPLE OF                 
PERIODS WILL SEE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS TYPICAL OF ELY FLOW. AFTER                
THAT, THE MARINE AREA BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DISTANT,            
BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE DEAN. GIVEN THE VERY FAST FORWARD MOVEMENT               
OF DEAN AND THE LESS THAN IDEAL DYNAMIC FETCH POINTING WESTWARD,                
WILL SHOW A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA HEIGHTS FROM EAST TO WEST                
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE ANGULAR SPREADING OF SWELLS                
GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.               
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...WILL MAX OUT OUR SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 5 TO 7            
FEET FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO                     
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH TO            
ONLY REACH HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET (12-13S). THIS COMBINED WITH THE              
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES...THE OVERALL SEAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 5             
TO 7 FEET DURING THIS SHORT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE                
VERY LOW WITH THE MOTION AND SPEED OF DEAN...OUR AREA COULD POSSIBLY            
RECEIVE SOME LONGER PERIOD ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS DEAN MOVES              
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GOMEX TUESDAY NIGHT TROUGH WEDNESDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE EARLY                 
MORNING HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                
REMAIN SUPPRESSED AND VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH WILL DIP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT EACH OF THE NEXT             
TWO AFTERNOONS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND. DISPERSION              
VALUES WILL BE HIGH AS WELL. WHILE, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RED FLAG             
CONDITIONS, DEW POINTS WILL NOT NEED TO MIX OUT MUCH MORE THAN                  
FORECAST FOR US TO GET TO CRITERIA. WILL HAVE THE DAY SHIFT KEEP A              
CLOSE EYE ON THIS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  98  75  98  73 100 /  10  20  10  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  95  78  95  79  95 /  20  10  10  10  10                           
DOTHAN       96  75  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10                           
ALBANY       97  75  99  75  98 /  05  10  10  05  10                           
VALDOSTA     98  74  98  71  98 /  05  10  10  05  10                           
CROSS CITY   98  75  97  72  96 /  20  20  10  05  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GIBBS                                                                
MARINE...GIBBS/WOOL                                                             
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
215 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OFF              
THE CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE AREA.              
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE ARE SUBTLE              
INDICATIONS OF A COASTAL TROUGH WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY                    
SPRINKLES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE                       
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AND RUC DIFFERENTIAL              
PVA ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE                    
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR                 
STREAMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD HELP CURB CONVECTIVE                       
DEVELOPMENT AND CURRENT 20 POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT.                                
FOR MONDAY...500 MB HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER TO 596 DAM AND                     
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO                  
KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH THE OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN               
COASTAL SHOWER ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY. THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE                 
CONTINUED HOT TEMPS WITH MID 90S IN STORE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.                 
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS EVENT...WILL               
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE             
WEEK.                                                                           
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEAN PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF                     
FLORIDA...STACKED HIGH CONFIGURATION WILL BE A MAINSTAY OVER OUR                
AREA WITH NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.                                   
.LONG TERM...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES WEST BY THE END               
OF THE WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH BREAKS DOWN WITH A TROUGH DIPPING                  
DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THIS POINTS TO SOME SLIGHT RELIEF               
FROM THE EXTREME HEAT AND POPS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                 
NORTHERN SECTIONS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES INDICATED BY                
THE GFS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST LOOKING TO IMPACT SOUTH                  
FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET INTO MANY DETAILS AND CURRENT SCT                 
POPS IN THE GRIDS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD BUT CLOUDS ARE ABOVE             
3000 FT. TONIGHT...BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING DUE            
TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXCEPT             
FOR SSI WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES FOR NOW. IT HAS BEEN NOTED FOR THE PAST 12-18            
HRS THAT SEAS HAVE INCREASED A BIT MAINLY DUE TO E TO SE SWELLS                 
INCREASING BY 1-2 FT. HAVE ADJUSTED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE A BIT FOR NEXT            
48 HRS AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL AREA OF 5-6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE                
OVER THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.                       
OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE PERIOD AT            
THIS TIME AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FT. RIP CURRENT RISK TO REMAIN                 
ELEVATED IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO              
ONSHORE FLOW AND ESE SWELLS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  71  96  72  96 /  20  10  10   0                                           
SSI  79  90  78  89 /  10  10  10   0                                           
JAX  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  10                                           
SGJ  76  90  76  89 /  20  10  10   0                                           
GNV  72  95  71  94 /  20  20  10  20                                           
OCF  73  94  72  94 /  20  20  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY/WALKER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
730 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KIWX 88D SHOWS PCPN SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BUT BACK END NOW                  
MOVING THROUGH KSBN. KFWA WILL SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS                  
BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS               
ACROSS IL IN AREA OF LOWER THETA E AIR. THIS LOWER THETA E AIR TO               
MOVE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES                   
ORIENTED MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AND LOSES FOCUS OVER BOUNDARY AND OUR              
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT              
SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE THEN IFR FOG AND CIGS THROUGH THE               
NIGHT. PREVIOUS TAF HAD THIS TREND AND CONTINUED WITH IT. WAS                   
OPTIMISTIC FOR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING TREND THROUGH               
THE DAY. TAF SITES IN WARM SECTOR NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO              
AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH ANY DAYTIME HEATING. ADDED CB                
GROUP FOR NOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...                                            
OVERALL SYNOPSIS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER            
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES...SMALL AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE EXTREME             
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HUDSON BAY. LAST BITS OF ERIN REMAIN              
ACROSS THE OZARKS. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE MOD                  
VALLEY TO NEAR CHICAGO ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO.               
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET STILL               
DRIVING INTO THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH THE WINDS SEEM TO HAVE VEERED                
SOME TO THE WEST...POSSIBLY THE REASONING FOR THE LESSER AMOUNTS                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FLOODING               
CONCERNS ARE LESSENING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.                               
TONIGHT THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION              
AS MODELS AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS EACH SHOWS THE BETTER                         
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND PARTS EAST.                    
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE ROBBING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS                 
CENTRAL INDIANA THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS              
THINKING. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. RIVER FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN               
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT THE                 
SURFACE HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE REGION...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH BELOW THE UPPER               
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NW COUNTIES NEAR                  
HILLSDALE MI WHERE MID TO LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE.                           
TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES...WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ALL DAY               
PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY...BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DOES. AFTERNOON             
HEATING WILL DROP LI`S TO AROUND -5 OR -6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES              
NEARING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED AFTERNOON                 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL                 
POSSIBLE. WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT...SOME                
NUISANCE FLOODING AND QUICK FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR BUT A NEED FOR             
A FLOOD WATCH IS UNWARRANTED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHS              
WILL REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...ONLY LIMITED BY THE CLOUD                
COVER AS H850 TEMPS JUMP TO NEAR 20C ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL                
PUSH INTO THE 80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BEGINNING OF FCST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DIMINISHING CHANCES OF                  
PRECIP AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WHATS LEFT OF            
ERIN SHIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TUE NITE THROUGH WED                   
MORNING ACCORDINGLY WITH DRY FCST OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z              
WED. THIS WILL HAVE OUR CWA IN WARM SECTOR...WARM HUMID AND VERY                
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT             
RAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCT TSRA BY THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS ON WED DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT LARGER SCALE FOCUS AND            
FORCING. MODELS INDICATING PREVAILING SW FLOW WITH OUR AREA IN WARM             
SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE                   
SUSTAINED 1 TO 2 DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING IN THIS TIME              
FRAME...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS FROM CURRENT FCST               
AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN REMAINDER            
OF EXTENDED AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT TO MOVE                  
THROUGH ON SAT BRINGING DRY FCST TO THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. WARMING              
TREND EXPECTED MID WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING                
TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 90...WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE WED AND THUR IF ANY            
APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF SUN. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F HEAT INDICES               
COULD APPROACH 100 WED AND THU AFTN IF L90S ARE REALIZED.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT/LASHLEY                                                     
LONG TERM....LOGSDON                                                            
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
306 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...                                            
OVERALL SYNOPSIS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER            
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES...SMALL AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE EXTREME             
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HUDSON BAY. LAST BITS OF ERIN REMAIN              
ACROSS THE OZARKS. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE MOD                  
VALLEY TO NEAR CHICAGO ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO.               
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET STILL               
DRIVING INTO THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH THE WINDS SEEM TO HAVE VEERED                
SOME TO THE WEST...POSSIBLY THE REASONING FOR THE LESSER AMOUNTS                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FLOODING               
CONCERNS ARE LESSENING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.                               
TONIGHT THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION              
AS MODELS AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS EACH SHOWS THE BETTER                         
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND PARTS EAST.                    
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE ROBBING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS                 
CENTRAL INDIANA THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS              
THINKING. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. RIVER FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN               
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT THE                 
SURFACE HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE REGION...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH BELOW THE UPPER               
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NW COUNTIES NEAR                  
HILLSDALE MI WHERE MID TO LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE.                           
TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES...WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ALL DAY               
PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY...BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DOES. AFTERNOON             
HEATING WILL DROP LI`S TO AROUND -5 OR -6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES              
NEARING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED AFTERNOON                 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL                 
POSSIBLE. WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT...SOME                
NUISANCE FLOODING AND QUICK FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR BUT A NEED FOR             
A FLOOD WATCH IS UNWARRANTED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHS              
WILL REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...ONLY LIMITED BY THE CLOUD                
COVER AS H850 TEMPS JUMP TO NEAR 20C ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL                
PUSH INTO THE 80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BEGINNING OF FCST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DIMINISHING CHANCES OF                  
PRECIP AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WHATS LEFT OF            
ERIN SHIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TUE NITE THROUGH WED                   
MORNING ACCORDINGLY WITH DRY FCST OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z              
WED. THIS WILL HAVE OUR CWA IN WARM SECTOR...WARM HUMID AND VERY                
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT             
RAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCT TSRA BY THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS ON WED DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT LARGER SCALE FOCUS AND            
FORCING. MODELS INDICATING PREVAILING SW FLOW WITH OUR AREA IN WARM             
SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE                   
SUSTAINED 1 TO 2 DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING IN THIS TIME              
FRAME...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS FROM CURRENT FCST               
AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN REMAINDER            
OF EXTENDED AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT TO MOVE                  
THROUGH ON SAT BRINGING DRY FCST TO THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. WARMING              
TREND EXPECTED MID WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING                
TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 90...WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE WED AND THUR IF ANY            
APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF SUN. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F HEAT INDICES               
COULD APPROACH 100 WED AND THU AFTN IF L90S ARE REALIZED.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM....LOGSDON                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
127 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAF PERIOD CONCERNS ARE DEALING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY                  
FROM RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR                
CONDITIONS AT FWA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA                
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LESSER SO                 
ACROSS THE SBN TAF SITE AND NORTH. FWA AND AREAS ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 00-06Z CREATING MVFR AND IFR                     
CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN FROM               
THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH INTO THE                    
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE VFR LIKELY                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH SOME                    
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO              
WELL ABOVE VFR LIMITS BY 16-18Z.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOW LEVEL             
JET INTERACTION ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH LINGERS FROM               
NEAR THE NORTH END OF CHICAGO TO ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND INTO               
CENTRAL OHIO. RUC 80 SHOWS STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENSIS JUST TO               
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH BEST FORCING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF              
THAT REGION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL                 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CREATING OR WORSENING                     
FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH              
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                    
REGION INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS                     
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HAVE PUSHED LI`S TO -3 AND STARTED TO                
ERODE ANY CIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER              
STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
MAY TWEAK TO DEWPOINTS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS                          
THINKING...ALSO ADJUSTED AFTN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES                
WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE THERE.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
COMPLICATED SHORT TERM PERIOD.  8Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING HEAVY BAND             
OF TSRA MOVING NE OVER NRN INDIANA DROPPING HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN             
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR.  STRONG H85 LLJ AND SHRT/WV                
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF FA HAVE SPARKED THIS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF              
THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER NRN IL/CENTRAL IN AT 8Z. EXPECT                
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO               
LWR MI/NW OH WITH THE FRONT CLOSE BEHIND.                                       
ATTENTION IS THEN FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING SHRT/WV FROM REMNANTS OF TD             
ERIN OVER SW MO SHOWN ON IR IMAGERY AT 8Z.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
OF STRENGTHENING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE NE AND               
INTERACT WITH FRONT PROGGED TO BE OVER FA THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST SVR             
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE OVER SE CWA CLOSER TO PASSING VORT MAX AND                
BEST CAPE.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAVY                
RAINFALL WITH VERY MOIST BL...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...AND LONG THIN             
CAPE.  THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH TILL 10Z TONIGHT. PRECIP             
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE            
OF SHRT/WV.                                                                     
KEPT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AS TEMPS                 
STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT TO THE MID 60S YESTERDAY...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD              
COVER/PRECIP SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL RISE TODAY.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
E-W ORIENTED STNRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA AT THE                 
START OF THE LONG TERM PD (12Z TUE) WITH REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVG                  
OFF TO OUR THE EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND                
TSTMS IN THE AREA TUE, BUT EXPECT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS                       
EXTENSIVE AS THE PREVIOUS 24HRS. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SHOULD                
BACK A BIT FROM W TO SW TUE-TUE NIGHT AS A SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE                
UPR MIDWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STNRY FRONT TO LIFT                  
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUE               
SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FURTHER TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT                
MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE                    
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING DURING                
THE DAY. GFS INDICATES A WIND SHIFT TO NW OVER THE AREA WED WHICH               
APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ALONG CDFNT                     
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. PREFER NAM HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE                    
KEEPING WINDS SW THRU THU. THIS CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE              
AREA THU NGT WITH TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT IN THE CONTINUED                  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENHANCING POPS ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE IS                 
EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ALONG THE FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT KEEPING                    
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE WELL                   
SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVG INTO                
THE CWA SAT NGT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM                          
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE U80S-L90S BY WED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.                 
TROPICAL AIRMASS ENHANCED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT                
IN DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE M-U90S.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS TAF PD. 35KT SWLY LLJ                  
OVERRUNNING STNRY SFC FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL/IN WAS CAUSING                      
WIDESPREAD TSTM OVER NRN IL/IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY               
WILL WANE AS LLJ GOES THROUGH DIURNAL WKNG/VEERING. CLOUDS WILL                 
LIMIT HEATING TODAY, BUT STILL SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL                           
DESTABILIZATION AGAIN THIS AFTN. REMNANTS OF ERIN OVER MO WILL LIFT             
NE ACROSS INDIANA THIS EVENING PRECEEDED/ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA AT            
THE TERMINALS. AS THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT               
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/FOG TO FORM.                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-               
     022>027-032>034.                                                           
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.                           
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-           
     024-025.                                                                   
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM....LAMMERS                                                            
AVIATION/UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1104 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOW LEVEL             
JET INTERACTION ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH LINGERS FROM               
NEAR THE NORTH END OF CHICAGO TO ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND INTO               
CENTRAL OHIO. RUC 80 SHOWS STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENSIS JUST TO               
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH BEST FORCING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF              
THAT REGION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL                 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CREATING OR WORSENING                     
FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH              
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                    
REGION INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS                     
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HAVE PUSHED LI`S TO -3 AND STARTED TO                
ERODE ANY CIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER              
STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
MAY TWEAK TO DEWPOINTS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS                          
THINKING...ALSO ADJUSTED AFTN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES                
WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE THERE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
COMPLICATED SHORT TERM PERIOD.  8Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING HEAVY BAND             
OF TSRA MOVING NE OVER NRN INDIANA DROPPING HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN             
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR.  STRONG H85 LLJ AND SHRT/WV                
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF FA HAVE SPARKED THIS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF              
THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER NRN IL/CENTRAL IN AT 8Z. EXPECT                
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO               
LWR MI/NW OH WITH THE FRONT CLOSE BEHIND.                                       
ATTENTION IS THEN FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING SHRT/WV FROM REMNANTS OF TD             
ERIN OVER SW MO SHOWN ON IR IMAGERY AT 8Z.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
OF STRENGTHENING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE NE AND               
INTERACT WITH FRONT PROGGED TO BE OVER FA THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST SVR             
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE OVER SE CWA CLOSER TO PASSING VORT MAX AND                
BEST CAPE.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAVY                
RAINFALL WITH VERY MOIST BL...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...AND LONG THIN             
CAPE.  THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH TILL 10Z TONIGHT. PRECIP             
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE            
OF SHRT/WV.                                                                     
KEPT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AS TEMPS                 
STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT TO THE MID 60S YESTERDAY...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD              
COVER/PRECIP SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL RISE TODAY.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
E-W ORIENTED STNRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA AT THE                 
START OF THE LONG TERM PD (12Z TUE) WITH REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVG                  
OFF TO OUR THE EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND                
TSTMS IN THE AREA TUE, BUT EXPECT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS                       
EXTENSIVE AS THE PREVIOUS 24HRS. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SHOULD                
BACK A BIT FROM W TO SW TUE-TUE NIGHT AS A SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE                
UPR MIDWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STNRY FRONT TO LIFT                  
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUE               
SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FURTHER TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT                
MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE                    
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING DURING                
THE DAY. GFS INDICATES A WIND SHIFT TO NW OVER THE AREA WED WHICH               
APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ALONG CDFNT                     
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. PREFER NAM HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE                    
KEEPING WINDS SW THRU THU. THIS CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE              
AREA THU NGT WITH TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT IN THE CONTINUED                  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENHANCING POPS ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE IS                 
EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ALONG THE FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT KEEPING                    
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE WELL                   
SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVG INTO                
THE CWA SAT NGT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM                          
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE U80S-L90S BY WED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.                 
TROPICAL AIRMASS ENHANCED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT                
IN DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE M-U90S.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS TAF PD. 35KT SWLY LLJ                  
OVERRUNNING STNRY SFC FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL/IN WAS CAUSING                      
WIDESPREAD TSTM OVER NRN IL/IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY               
WILL WANE AS LLJ GOES THROUGH DIURNAL WKNG/VEERING. CLOUDS WILL                 
LIMIT HEATING TODAY, BUT STILL SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL                           
DESTABILIZATION AGAIN THIS AFTN. REMNANTS OF ERIN OVER MO WILL LIFT             
NE ACROSS INDIANA THIS EVENING PRECEEDED/ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA AT            
THE TERMINALS. AS THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT               
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/FOG TO FORM.                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-               
     022>027-032>034.                                                           
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.                           
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-           
     024-025.                                                                   
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                    
LONG TERM....LAMMERS                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
735 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THIS VERY DIFFICULT AND CHAOTIC            
CONVECTION PATTERN. WEAK FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF MOST MODEL                 
DEPICTIONS FOR 00Z. RUC PROBABLY BEST AND EVEN THIS LOOKS TOO FAR               
NORTH WITH ITS PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT AND QPF COMPARED TO LATEST                
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. WITH VERY COOL LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW              
IN PLACE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF BOUNDARY...FEEL IT WILL BE            
DIFFICULT FOR NORTHWARD MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW                 
LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHORT WAVE SEEN IN                 
WATER VAPOR EXITING NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECT ADDITIONAL                      
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR                          
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN INDIANA. TAFS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT               
OBSERVATIONS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP AND WARM             
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE TO LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN. CONFINED              
TSRA TO BEST WINDOW WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING AND LLJ OVERNIGHT.              
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW                                                            
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTIES DEALING WITH REMNANTS OF                 
ERIN...CREATING ISSUES WITH MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF INGREDIENTS               
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION ACROSS THE REGION. TO MITIGATE THE                
DIFFERENCES THE 09Z SREF LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY SOLID SOLUTION                    
HANDLING THE LEFTOVERS FROM ERIN A LITTLE MORE SMOOTHLY THAN                    
EITHER THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR NAM. CONSTANT LOW CLOUD COVER AND                 
OCCASIONAL PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO               
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL IA TO              
NEAR KLAF TO NEAR DAYTON/COLUMBUS OHIO. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY             
SHOWS ERIN BEING SHEARED RAPIDLY AND MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED                 
NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...PWATS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE 2 INCHES                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEARLY CONSTANT MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET            
PUSHING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE PRECIP. MODELS SEEM TO                
HAVE A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AND               
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. SHRTWV MOVING FROM MS VALLEY                 
LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF                 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO             
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH              
TO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALSO EXTENDED THE TIMEFRAME                
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING (00Z TUES). SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LOW              
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE                 
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH POPS THROUGH THE                      
PERIOD...STARTING TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO                
EAST.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHWESTERN MI/ AND EXTREME NE IN AND NW OH COUNTIES TONIGHT...ONLY            
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPS FALL              
TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS. AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY ARE CONTROLLED              
BY THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HAVE WENT TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE OF              
MOS...UNDERCUTTING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. DECENT               
GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS             
NEAR MONTICELLO IN APPROACHING 80 OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND HILLSDALE MI            
AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 60S.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                   
NOT REALLY MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.                  
OVERALL STILL LOOKING TO BE A WET WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL             
STILL BE HANGING AROUND THE AREA HELPING WITH THE LIFT...AND WITH               
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA...WILL BE CONTINUING THE RAIN CHANCES.            
SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION ON WHEN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND               
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND A LITTLE IN THE TIMING             
OF THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.             
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN ANY PERIODS             
OF RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE THE BLANKETED RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND              
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS CURRENT TREND CONTINUES THEN A GOOD PORTION              
OF WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRY AS WELL AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN                          
FRONTS...AWAITING A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS DID HAVE THE             
COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE SLOWING IT                
DOWN. ALSO WANT TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY FOR THURSDAY AND                   
FRIDAY...FOR NOW THE GFS IS STALLING OUT THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR             
NORTHWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE            
CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HOLD IF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST             
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED              
TO HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY. THEN THE MODELS FINALLY MOVE A HIGH               
PRESSURE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. NO CHANGES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK            
AS THAT PERIOD IS SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET AND MODELS ARE NOT TOO                   
CONSISTENT YET.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-             
     022>027-032>034.                                                           
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.                         
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-             
     016-024-025.                                                               
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT/LASHLEY                                                     
LONG TERM....LOTHAMER                                                           
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR TAFS                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1150 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WOBBLING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WELL IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN.                 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN             
MN AND ARE HEADING EAST ALONG H850 FRONTAL ZONE. OVER SOUTHERN                  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CONTINUE TO SEE INFLUX OF OLD ERIN              
MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. MAINTAINING FLASH              
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL                  
EXPECTED. SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN TAKE A FEW INCHES WITH LESS IMPACT              
EXPECTED THERE.                                                                 
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...                                                        
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE                 
STATE TNT. THOUGH THE GREATEST LIFT INITIALLY APPEARS TO BE ALONG               
AND NORTH OF THE IA-MN BORDER...RUC MODEL HAS COME AROUND TO SHOW               
INCREASING LIFT WITH STRONGER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT             
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING               
THE GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE EAST NORTHEAST BY 03Z LATER THIS            
EVENING. H700 WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD HELP KEEP PATTERN                    
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NORTH THOUGH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE INTO             
THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS            
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS MAY MITIGATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES OVER THE               
NORTH BUT WILL HOLD ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO FACT THAT LITTLE              
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TNT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. OLD ERIN STILL A            
PROBLEM...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PLUME WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST              
THIRD OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL                   
POSSIBLE THERE. GFS/NAM MUCH FARTHER EAST WITH TRACK THIS                       
EVENING...AND AM FOLLOWING RUC MORE CLOSELY. FFG RUNNING HIGHER                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 RAINFALL             
SO WILL NOT EXTEND WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH ATTM THOUGH SOME TOTALS              
MAY COME IN ABOVE TWO INCHES IN SOME CASES. H700 WAVE NORTH WILL                
LIFT EAST AFTER 06Z AND RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT TIME.                  
ACROSS THE SOUTH EXPECT THE RAIN TO DIMINISH BETWEEN THE 04 AND 08Z             
TIMEFRAME AS OLD ERIN SPINS EAST BY MORNING. FOLLOWING THAT...FOG               
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE THESE SYSTEMS AS WINDS REMAIN            
LIGHT BY MORNING. WITH GO WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW.                            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE             
BOUNDARY IS NEVER FORECAST TO LEAVE IOWA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL            
ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR...WITH HIGHEST                 
PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHERN IOWA WHERE SOME HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY            
FALLEN...MAKING LOCAL FLOODING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THE WEEK.                 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR AT TIMES FOR ISOLATED             
SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TROPICAL              
WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. TEMPERATURES            
A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC NORTH SINCE THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY THAT             
COOLER AND DRIER AIR COULD SLIP IN FOR A SHORT SPELL.                           
SPECIFICALLY...AFTER TONIGHT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MOST               
LIKELY WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY            
EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...WITH REPEAT ACTION                    
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OF COPIOUS             
MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS RAPID ACROSS THIS AREA AS A SERIES            
OF SHORT WAVES COMES OUT IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO SEE                
ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO                   
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.                
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE               
WEST PUSHING A SURFACE HIGH INTO IOWA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR                 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES              
AND DROP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BACK TO COMFORTABLE LEVELS.                 
ALL OF THESE RAIN CHANCES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLASH             
FLOOD WATCHES AND POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING EVENTUALLY FOR THE                    
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. CEDAR RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH                
BANK FULL...AND COULD GO HIGHER IF RAINS TARGET THE SAME AREAS FOR A            
COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.                                                        
.AVIATION...20/06Z                                                              
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE STATE.  STORMS WITH HEAVY              
RAINFALL LEAVING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH FOG LIKELY.  FREQUENT IFR              
CONDITIONS NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA THROUGH MORNING.  MVFR CLOUDS                  
AROUND 3000 FEET TODAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM               
MONDAY IAZ004>007-IA015>017-IA023>028-IA035>039-IA049>050-                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REV                                                                
LONG TERM...JUNGBLUTH                                                           
AVIATION...FORSTER                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
339 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE 12Z UPPER               
AIR MAPS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE                  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                          
THE 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN             
CO...NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS...INTO WEST CENTRAL NE THEN                  
NORTHEAST INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SD. A SURFACE TROUGH                
EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NE...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL             
KS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS WERE IN THE MID 70S AND                 
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN                  
COUNTIES AND MID 70 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WAS                   
CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO REACH 108 TO 112 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE             
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THEREFORE A               
HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 700 PM.                    
TONIGHT...SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH            
OR WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS EAST            
CENTRAL NE AND CENTRAL KS WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST            
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS IS             
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FROM THESE STORMS. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS AN MCS            
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NE...WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE                       
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FROM             
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.                   
MEANWHILE...THE RUC AND GFS HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS            
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING THEM EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO              
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING            
THEM AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING            
HOURS OF TUESDAY. GIVEN LOWER TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH SURFACE            
TEMPERATES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES HAVE CAUSED MLCAPES             
TO INCREASE 3-4,000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST NE THIS                
AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES SHOW SOME TURNING FROM               
THE SURFACE TO 850MB...AND 30KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 600 MB. THUS            
SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND EASTERN NE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS             
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE               
16,000 FEET THUS THE HAIL MAY ONLY GET TO QUARTER SIZE IN                       
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE               
POSSIBLE GIVEN PW`S OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. ATTM I KEPT THE HIGHEST              
POPS 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY NEED TO BE               
UPDATED IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT ABOUT DEVELOPING AN MCS                  
ACROSS EASTERN NE. ATTM I`M LEANING MORE TO THE GFS MODEL. LOWS                 
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.                                  
TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A            
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH                   
PLAINS. MINOR 5H TROUGHS MAY RIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE              
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 5H RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP              
850MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON               
HEATING WILL CAUSE MLCAPES TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 3 TO 4,000 J/KG              
LEVEL. THE CAP MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST                      
CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NE BORDER FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THAT MAY              
HELP ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE            
CWA. OTHERWISE...STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SURFACE              
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. SOME OF THESE                  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING.                
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH MID             
90S ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH              
ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL             
LET THE NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.                 
SINCE CONVECTION THIS MORNING COULD LEAVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY               
REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THIS TIME                   
PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST            
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL             
CERTAINLY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD. HAVE KEPT               
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF              
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY              
IN THE 90S...BUT A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS                     
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND PUSHES              
THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS               
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING WITH THE              
FROPA HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST KS BEHIND THE FRONT ON              
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S            
ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY.            
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ALLOWS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP                
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT                 
FRONTAL BOUDARY SETS UP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH             
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. KEPT                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN                
PLACE AND FEW WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES             
LATER THIS EVENING. ATTM I PLACED IN VCTS BUT IF AN MCS WERE TO                 
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF              
TIME WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS                
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...             
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10             
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY SEE SOME               
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND THEN A FEW BOUNDARY LAYER CU                  
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES OF 4,000 FEET.                     
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVSY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM              
THIS EVENING FOR ALL FAR NORTHEAST CWA.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1141 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...IN EASTERN ZONES ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY                      
STARTED...THUS THE POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVED UP TO                
17Z. MEANWHILE...IN EASTERN COLORADO...WITH MIXING DEW POINTS HAVE              
DROPPED TO THE LOWER 40S AND IN SOME CASES 30S. LATEST FORECAST HAS             
RH VALUES AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT...IN ADDITION WINDS ARE BREEZY                   
NOW...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A RED                
FLAG WARNING HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED                     
CLOSELY AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007/                        
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH BISECTING GLD CWA.               
AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE                 
THROUGH 700MB ACCORDING TO THE RUC. ML CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE                  
TROUGH ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...UP TO 1900 J/KG IN GLD CWA...AND                   
VALUES OF CIN LOOK TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY                  
TONGUE OVER THE REGION...THOUGH THERE IS A PUSH OF MOIST AIR                    
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION               
THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN                
ADDED TO EASTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINNING AT 21Z.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY THE              
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE LATTER PART OF                 
THE WORK WEEK. CONTINUE TO EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY                  
THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH THE CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.                             
MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK TO DAMPEN OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
UPPER RIDGE AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG THE                  
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH                     
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HELP                
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE                      
STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IN THE                      
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND THESE FEATURES INTERSECTION              
POINT LATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH...DEWPOINTS ARE               
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EXTEND FROM OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL                
NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND                  
UPPER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION              
SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                
IT APPEARS BY LATE TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEE SURFACE                 
TROUGH WILL BE IN POSITION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH A                   
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENING NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF               
THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD MOVE THE PREFERRED AREA                 
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE REGION THROUGH                
THE END OF THE WEEK...WE COULD SEE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL              
THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HIGH                
PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLANS STATES.         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT                    
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                   
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA                
AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE               
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.                          
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JOHNSON/LOCKHART                                                                
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1008 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH BISECTING GLD CWA.               
AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE                 
THROUGH 700MB ACCORDING TO THE RUC. ML CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE                  
TROUGH ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...UP TO 1900 J/KG IN GLD CWA...AND                   
VALUES OF CIN LOOK TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY                  
TONGUE OVER THE REGION...THOUGH THERE IS A PUSH OF MOIST AIR                    
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION               
THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN                
ADDED TO EASTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINNING AT 21Z.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY THE              
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE LATTER PART OF                 
THE WORK WEEK. CONTINUE TO EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY                  
THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH THE CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.                             
MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK TO DAMPEN OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
UPPER RIDGE AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG THE                  
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH                     
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HELP                
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE                      
STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IN THE                      
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND THESE FEATURES INTERSECTION              
POINT LATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH...DEWPOINTS ARE               
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EXTEND FROM OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL                
NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND                  
UPPER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION              
SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                
IT APPEARS BY LATE TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEE SURFACE                 
TROUGH WILL BE IN POSITION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH A                   
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENING NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF               
THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD MOVE THE PREFERRED AREA                 
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE REGION THROUGH                
THE END OF THE WEEK...WE COULD SEE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL              
THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HIGH                
PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLANS STATES.         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT                    
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                   
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA                
AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE               
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JOHNSON/LOCKHART                                                                
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1131 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION                
ERIN AND TSRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTH                 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND RADAR              
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TD ERIN IS MAKING A GENERAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT.              
CURRENT 12Z MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS VERY WELL...WITH THE LATEST                
SHORT TERM RUC HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON ITS MOVEMENT WHICH TAKES IT            
MORE EAST-NORTHEAST RATHER THAN NORTH.  THIS MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT             
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON POPS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE CHANCES FOR                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION               
WILL STAY SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AREA...BUT CIRRUS SHIELD WITH THIS               
SYSTEM IS THINNING SOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING IN SOUTHEAST            
KS. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SO ANY INCREASED HEATING                
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A SCATTERED SEVERE               
CHANCE.  SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION IN THIS AREA FOR                  
NOW...AS HIGHER INSTABILITY AND CURRENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS                 
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE.  LOW LCL VALUES COULD LEAD               
TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WET                    
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT                   
AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WANES SOME AS SYSTEM MOVE EAST.                            
WILL ALSO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR CEN KS AS A MORE                    
EASTWARD MOVEMENT KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA.                
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAF SUITE.                                                              
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE AS SOME SEVERE CONVECTION            
IS STILL POSSIBLE IF HEATING CAN MATERIALIZE.  SO WILL CONTINUE THIS            
MENTION IN KCNU.  WILL ALSO KEEP A VCTS IN KICT AND KHUT AS SOME                
ISOLATED TSRA COULD ROTATE NORTH INTO THIS AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON               
AREAS.  LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SO STILL COULD SEE SOME             
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE KICT/KCNU AND KHUT SITES UNTIL SUNSET.                    
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION...12Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                       
IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL KS SITES UNTIL                 
MID-LATE MORNING WHEN HEATING/MIXING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO DISSIPATE.              
T.D. ERIN OVER CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AM...PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD                  
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS LATER THIS PM/TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IT                    
APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK WILL BRING               
HIGH SHOWER/T-STORM PROBABILITY TO CNU SITE MAINLY AFTER 23Z...WITH             
CONVECTION MORE ISOLD AT HUT/ICT TODAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE              
WITH TS PARTICULARY AT CNU THIS EVE.                                            
JMC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE TODAY & TONIGHT OVER ESPECIALLY SE KS AS             
REMNANTS OF "ERIN" CONTINUE NE MIGRATION FROM OK ACROSS SC & SE KS.             
WITH MID-UPR LOW ASSOCIATED WITH "ERIN" MOVING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OK             
DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER ESPECIALLY             
SE KS. THEREFORE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO             
EXIST OVER AREAS ALONG & SE OF THE TURNPIKE. WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS              
INCREASING GRIP ON THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DEWPOINTS OF ~75F             
MIGRATING DUE NORTH ACROSS ERN OK AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF             
~2.5 INCHES...+RA A CERTAINTY IN SE KS BOTH TODAY & TONIGHT.                    
TODAY & TONIGHT:                                                                
PER "SYNOPSIS" HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER SE KS TO ~70%              
TSRA WITH "POSSIBLY SEVERE" DESCRIPTOR APPLIED. MULTIPLE THREATS                
EXIST: DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND EVEN A COUPLE TORNADOES.           
(IN FACT TORNADO WATCH #616 JUST WENT INTO EFFECT FOR CENTRAL OK TIL            
8 AM CDT.) SOAKED AIRMASS DICTATES LOWERING MAXES A FEW DEGREES ALL             
AREAS...ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS. AS REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE NE TREK             
ACROSS SE KS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY IN WEST-EAST MANNER IN            
CENTRAL & SC KS WITH NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUING OVER SE             
KS MOST OF THE NIGHT.                                                           
MON:                                                                            
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM VACATES SE KS PREMISES SHRA             
TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RESULTING.           
TUE-FRI:                                                                        
FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD FAST WLY MID-UPR DECK FLOW ACROSS NRN              
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING E. BEHAVIOR & TRACKS OF THE            
FEATURES BEARS WATCHING AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK ON DOORS             
IN CENTRAL KS FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. SE THRUST OF MID-LVL            
SHORTWAVES APPEARS LACKING. AS SUCH APPEARS FRONT MAY STALL & PERHAPS           
RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT WED NIGHT. UNTIL BEHAVIOR OF THE FRONT                
COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS...HAVE FELT IT PRUDENT TO ASSIGN 20-30% POPS            
TO CENTRAL KS BOTH TUE & WED NIGHTS.                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT                   
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS                 
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND                  
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE IFR                       
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS AROUND SUNRISE. THE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE            
MORNING OVER THE AREA BUT THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN                
OVER THE REGION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    87  73  94  75 /  50  20   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      88  72  96  74 /  30  20   0  10                                
NEWTON          87  73  95  74 /  40  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        86  73  94  74 /  60  40  10   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  74  94  75 /  60  40  10   0                                
RUSSELL         92  70  96  74 /  20  10   0  10                                
GREAT BEND      92  70  96  74 /  20  10   0  10                                
SALINA          90  72  97  74 /  30  10   0  10                                
MCPHERSON       88  72  96  74 /  30  10   0  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     88  73  89  74 /  80  60  30   0                                
CHANUTE         88  73  90  73 /  80  60  30   0                                
IOLA            88  73  91  73 /  70  70  30  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    88  73  89  73 /  80  60  30   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
921 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR UPDATE FOR CONVECTION/SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS OVERNIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY               
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY HAS MOVED OUT THE WFO              
PAH FORECAST AREA AS OF 02Z MON /9 PM SUNDAY/. THE CIRRUS SHIELD                
FROM THE OK/ERN KS CONVECTION PERSISTED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE                
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...INHIBITING INSOLATION FROM ALLOWING                     
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED IN THE RELATIVELY MOST                    
AIR...COMPARED TO SATURDAY.                                                     
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT                     
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE FROM                      
LIFT/WEAK SHEAR ASSOCIATED THE CIRCULATION FROM THE REMNANTS OF                 
ERIN. AT 9 PM...THIS CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NERN                 
OK...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING THROUGH SWRN MO AND                
NWRN AR. RUC/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION               
BETWEEN 10 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 4AM MONDAY...NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY               
SHOULD REFIRE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST              
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.                         
SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/AND WINDS              
MADE TO REFLECT THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIN INTO MO OVERNIGHT.         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN              
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                         
REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO SIT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  AS THIS                
FEATURE/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR NORTHEAST...SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH NGM MOST GENEROUS WITH PRECIP             
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND GFS THE LEAST.  THOUGH GFS/NAM/NGM DISAGREE IN            
COVERAGE AND POPS...OVERALL CONSENSUS DOES LEAN TOWARD BETTER                   
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST                
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST             
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH                    
BASICALLY LEANS MOST TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.  DUE TO             
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED            
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HOPEFULLY THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE              
ON THE SITUATION.                                                               
MID WEEK INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL                    
TEMPERATURES.  AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE                
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEP OUR REGION IN VERY WARM                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH               
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CLIMB IN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER               
90S.                                                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE                     
NORTHWEST.  A COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER GFS                 
KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES                   
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR SATURDAY...AND ENDING              
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MEX INDICATES                    
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO ALMOST NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE                          
FRONT.                                                                          
FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS..STAYED IN THE BALL PARK OF MAV AND MET                     
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR SOUTHEAST HALF OF             
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY AND COOLER MET FOR NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD                 
WARMER MAV OVERALL FOR WEDNESDAY.  IN THE EXTENDED...STAYED WITHIN A            
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...WHICH ONLY REQUIRED SOME             
MINOR CHANGES.                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                    
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONS AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER              
STORMS DIE OUT...ONLY EXPECT SCT MID-HIGH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS.              
OTHERWISE ANY RESTRICTED VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE             
WITH A PM CU FIELD 4-5K FT LEADING TO ISOLD CB/TSRA DEVELOPMENT                 
ALONG TWEB ROUTES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMITH                                                              
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
417 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO                  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT           
THROUGH MIDWEEK...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH         
PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL INTO LATE WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
LATEST SFC AND SATL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MEANDERING WARM FRONT DRAPED               
ACROSS APPROX THE RTE 460 CORRIDOR. SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING                   
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...BUT STILL A TREMENDOUS GRDNT ACRS THE                 
CWA...MID 90S ALONG NC BORDER...AND STILL ONLY IN 70S AT RICHMOND. RUC          
SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THIS EVENG...WITH AMPLE            
CAPE MAKING TO ABOUT THE I-64 CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY DECENT 0-6KM                 
SHEAR VALUES. SLGT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE               
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS SRN 1/2 OF ZONES THIS EVENG...ALTHOUGH AREAS               
A BIT FARTHER MAY SEE SOME TSTMS AS WELL BY LATER IN THE EVENG. HAVE            
GONE WITH SCTD TSTMS MOST ZONES...BEST CHANCES BEING 8PM THROUGH                
ERLY AM HRS WHEN BEST FORCING/LOW LVL MSTR CONV PROGGED TO TRACK                
ACRS THE REGION. KEEPING TSTM MENTION OUT OF THE ERN SHORE. LOWS                
MAINLY UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEARLY                   
STATIONARY FRONT/BNDRY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH TUE                
AND WED. REMNANTS OF ERIN TO ADD TO THE MSTR ON TUE/TUE NGT. HAVE               
FOLLOWED SREF MEANS FOR OVERALL POSITION OF THE BNDRY. THIS IS A                
COMPROMISE BETWN THE GFS AND NAM WHICH FLIP FLOP ON THEIR POSITIONS             
TUE AND WED. FOR TUE...THE GFS IS COOLER AND WETTER/KEEPING BNDRY               
FARTHER SOUTH...AND NAM IS WARMER/DRIER... PLACING NEARLY ALL OF                
THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR TUE. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE LKLY IN THE                 
NORTH/SCTD FARTHER SOUTH. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE AFTN/EVENG. WED...BOTH       
MODELS INDICATE NE FLOW...BUT GFS/MAV IS AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES                  
WARMER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. BLENDED THE TEMPS                
HERE....AND WENT WITH 30% POPS ALL AREAS BY AFTN. KEPT TSTMS OUT                
OF THE FCST ALONG CSTL ZONES W/ STABLE LOW LYRS.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE         
TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS GULF COAST                          
STATES...GRADUALLY EXPANDING N AND E INTO THE MID ATLC THU INTO                 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. APPEARS AS IF YET ANOTHER MINI HEAT WAVE                  
(SEE CLIMO SECTION) WILL ENVELOP THE REGION...MAINLY FRI/SAT/ AND               
PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. HAVE BUMPED INLAND TEMPS UP TO 97-99F FOR                  
HIGHS FRI AND SAT. FLOW MAY BE A BIT MORE SLY (RATHER THAN SW)                  
ALONG COASTL ZONES AT LEAST INTO FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS               
SOMEWHAT COOLER CSTL ZONES UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AS FOR PRECIP...WILL              
HAVE THE USUAL SMALL CHC (20%) DURING AFTN/EVENG...BUT NO TRIGGER               
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HTG SO HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER AT THIS PT                   
UNTIL TIMING OF NXT COLD FRONT CAN BE DETERMINED ERLY NXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
SBY ASOS CONTS OTS...SO HAVE USED SURROUNDING OBS TO BEST ESTIMATE              
A FCST TDY GIVEN PSN OF FRNT. OTW...12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE THE TYPICAL           
ERLY MORN LOW ST AND BR DUE TO LL MSTR LEFT OVR FROM LASTS NITE RAIN.           
WND FCST THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TDY AS FRNTL BNDRY PLAYS HAVOC WITH              
WND DRCTN / SPEEDS. KEPT CB IN MOST LCTNS AFTR 18Z DUE TO TSTRM                 
CHC MOST AREAS S OF BNDRY. MORE SHOWERY PCPN XPCTD AT SBY. MORE FOG             
XPCTD AGAIN TONITE...SPCLLY IF SKIES CLEAR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR BAY. TWEEKED WNDS FOR 7 AM UPDATE AS PER               
CRNT OBS WRT FRNTL PSN. OTW... ANTHR VRY CHALLENGING CWF TDY AS                 
PSN OF FRNTL BNDRY WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH WNDS. SAID BNDRY PROGGED                
TO SAG S TO A PSN ACROSS THE LWR CHES BAY AND CSTL WTRS THIS AFTRN              
WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRS FROM TSTRMS ADDING ADDNTL WND CONCERNS.              
FIRST SUCH WAVE CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE WITH ANTHR                  
WAVE XPCTD A BIT FRTHR S THIS AFTRN. THIS BNDRY STALLS THIS EVE B4              
SLOWLY LIFTG BACK N AS A WRM FRNT LATER TONITE (JUST HOW FAR N IS               
YET ANTHR CONCERN). DUE TO INCRG NE WND FLOW BEHIND BNDRY...WILL                
CONT SCA FLAGS FOR MD CSTL WTRS WHERE SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE                
INCRG ONSHORE FLOW. WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR CURRITUCK SND AND                   
MOUTH OF CHES BAY NXT FEW HRS PER CRNT W-SW WND BTWN 15-20 KTS.                 
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
WITH MORE HEAT EXPECTED FRI INTO SUNDAY...LOOKS PROBABLE THAT BOTH              
RIC AND NORFOLK WILL END UP IN TOP 10 HOTTEST AUG ON RECORD.                    
CURRENTLY IF AUG ENDED NOW...RICHMOND AUG 2007 WOULD BE 2ND HOTTEST.            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR               
     ANZ650.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BROWN                                                                
NEAR TERM...BROWN                                                               
SHORT TERM...BROWN                                                              
LONG TERM...BROWN                                                               
AVIATION...KCS                                                                  
MARINE...25                                                                     
CLIMATE...BROWN                                                                 
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1139 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.           
SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH                      
MIDWEEK...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL INTO LATE WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LATEST SFC AND SATL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MEANDERING WARM FRONT DRAPED               
ACROSS APPROX THE RTE 460 CORRIDOR. EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE                  
DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20% OF PRECIP OVER THE NXT FEW HRS.              
MSNNY SKIES SRN TIER OF CWA...MCDY FOR REMAINDER OF THE AREA.                   
THIS WILL CREATE A STRG THERMAL GRADIENT JUST N OF THE VA/NC                    
BORDER. RUC SHOWS AMPLE CAPE AFTER 2-3PM...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY                
DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS DROPPED SLGT                        
RISK...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS               
SRN 1/3 OF ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE               
FROM MID 90S FAR S/SW...TO THE UPPER 70S MD SHORE. ACRS                         
NORFOLK...MAY SEE TEMPS HELD DOWN A LITTLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO NNE                
LATER IN AFTN.                                                                  
AS WITH PRVS SHIFTS...GFS SOLN IS BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST SUITE. BELIEVE        
THAT GFS SOLN IS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...AND IN LINE WITH                        
UKMET/GGEM GUIDANCE. THIS WL TRANSLATE TO A RATHER LARGE THERMAL                
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. XPCT A SHOWERY...CLOUDY AND            
RATHER UNPLEASANT DAY WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE              
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA...WITH STEADILY DECREASING CLOUDS (AND              
POPS) IN ADDITION TO WARMER CONDITIONS AS WE PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO            
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. MOST OF THE REGION WL SEE HIGHS JUMP                  
INTO THE U80S TO L90S...WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE              
VA/NC BORDER AND INTO INTERIOR NE NC. OVER THE EASTERN                          
SHORE...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE U70S                
TO L80S ON RATHER GUSTY N TO NE WNDS.                                           
BOUNDARY WL BE MEANDERING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS          
A SERIES OF MIDLVL S/W ENERGY STREAMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WL                  
KEEP SHRAS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TDA                
AND TNGT. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY                   
MOIST AIRMASS IVOF SOUTHWARD DIVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL LKLY BE                 
ABLE TO FIRE A FEW ISO/SCT THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTN. 0-3KM AND                 
0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPEARS...AT THE LEAST...ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED                 
TSTM DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED                
AS SLGT RISK IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
DETERMINING FRONTAL POSITION CONTINUES TO BE A BIG FORECAST                     
CHALLENGE THROUGH SHORT TERM...AND WL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN                 
SENSIBLE WX FOR THE MIDWK. ANOTHER COMPLICATION WL BE THE REMNANTS              
OF TS ERIN. WHEREAS THE NAM BRINGS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WELL                   
NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CENTRAL PA AND NY/NJ AREA TUESDAY                      
AFTN/NGT...THE GFS SOLN BRINGS THIS BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS S              
PA...AND INTO LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY NGT. PWATS                    
APPROACHING/OVR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THIS                      
TIMEFRAME...SO FELT COMPELLED TO HELD ON TO LOW CHC POPS                        
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...CONFINED BEST POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE              
CWA AS PER MODEL TREND.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
LONG TERM SEEMS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A GRADUAL RETURN TO                      
THE COMMON REFRAIN: SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DIURNALLY                    
DRIVEN TSTMS. LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE                     
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY                   
BUILDING BACK TWDS MID ATLC GOING INTO NEXT WKND. MEANWHILE SFC                 
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NJ TO NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RETREAT FARTHER              
NE. HAVE CONTINUED TREND TO BECOME DRIER AND WARMER WITH EACH                   
DAY...SLGT CHC POPS WED...(AND THURSDAY OVER PIEDMONT) WITH                     
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO 90S FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA FRI                
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SBY ASOS CONTS OTS...SO HAVE USED SURROUNDING OBS TO BEST ESTIMATE              
A FCST TDY GIVEN PSN OF FRNT. OTW...12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE THE TYPICAL           
ERLY MORN LOW ST AND BR DUE TO LL MSTR LEFT OVR FROM LASTS NITE RAIN.           
WND FCST THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TDY AS FRNTL BNDRY PLAYS HAVOC WITH              
WND DRCTN / SPEEDS. KEPT CB IN MOST LCTNS AFTR 18Z DUE TO TSTRM                 
CHC MOST AREAS S OF BNDRY. MORE SHOWERY PCPN XPCTD AT SBY. MORE FOG             
XPCTD AGAIN TONITE...SPCLLY IF SKIES CLEAR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR BAY. TWEEKED WNDS FOR 7 AM UPDATE AS PER               
CRNT OBS WRT FRNTL PSN. OTW... ANTHR VRY CHALLENGING CWF TDY AS                 
PSN OF FRNTL BNDRY WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH WNDS. SAID BNDRY PROGGED                
TO SAG S TO A PSN ACROSS THE LWR CHES BAY AND CSTL WTRS THIS AFTRN              
WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRS FROM TSTRMS ADDING ADDNTL WND CONCERNS.              
FIRST SUCH WAVE CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE WITH ANTHR                  
WAVE XPCTD A BIT FRTHR S THIS AFTRN. THIS BNDRY STALLS THIS EVE B4              
SLOWLY LIFTG BACK N AS A WRM FRNT LATER TONITE (JUST HOW FAR N IS               
YET ANTHR CONCERN). DUE TO INCRG NE WND FLOW BEHIND BNDRY...WILL                
CONT SCA FLAGS FOR MD CSTL WTRS WHERE SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE                
INCRG ONSHORE FLOW. WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR CURRITUCK SND AND                   
MOUTH OF CHES BAY NXT FEW HRS PER CRNT W-SW WND BTWN 15-20 KTS.                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ633-652.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BROWN                                                                
NEAR TERM...BROWN                                                               
SHORT TERM...MAM                                                                
LONG TERM...BROWN/MAM                                                           
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1123 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A WARM                 
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS                
NORTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE                     
SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED              
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL                  
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING CWA LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND          
LIGHT SHRAS TO THE NORTH AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE SOUTH. GFS/RUC                  
MODELS SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON.                 
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 18 HRS. MAYBE               
AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE SW AS INSTABILITY BUILDS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE               
WAY OF FORCING                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                                 
OVERRUNNING PRECIP...NORTH OF BOUNDARY...WILL MOVE ACROSS                       
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. TRENDED FROM HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CHC POPS                
NORTH TO SOUTH. A SFC LOW APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY              
MONDAY AFTN. I WILL ASSUME THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONED ACROSS                
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT CONTINUED THE WET WX BUT WILL ALSO                  
KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SFC LOW.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                  
A WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY                
NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPEAR TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING            
THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES THE REGION HAS SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME.              
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WELL ABOVE THE                
NORMAL OF 1.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME WITH                      
HARD-TO-TIME WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE             
STILL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST            
CHANCE OF SEEING NOTICEABLE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF            
THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. OVERALL...INCOMING                
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTH AND SOUTH               
RATHER FAR...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW               
NORMAL.                                                                         
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONCE THE FRONT HAS EXITED THE                          
REGION...BRINGING A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z MON. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER                
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO CLOUDS             
AND LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THIS EVENING. TSTMS POSSIBLE MON.                     
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE                 
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CHANCES OF MVFR AND EVEN             
TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PROLONGER                
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...AND             
MARTINSBURG TERMINALS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY TODAY. SOUTH OF THE               
FRONT...SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WINDS INCREASE TO A LOW END SCA SO                 
HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LOWER BAY.               
WRF-ARW INDICATES A BNDRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY WHICH DRIFTS                  
SOUTH THIS EVENING.                                                             
LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS EXPECTED                
OVER THE WATERS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
OVER THE REGION. CONSISTENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROSA                                                                   
LONG TERM...SAR                                                                 
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1101 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS A WARM FRONT                 
MOVES BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL                   
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                 
THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL THROUGH                
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LATEST SATL SHOWING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CLOUD BANK ACRS                 
THE PIEDMNT. RUC DEPICTS THIS WELL IN 300-305K LEVEL...AND TRACKS               
THIS FARTHER TO THE NE BY MID AFTN. IN ADDITION...CAN SEE CU                    
POPPING ACRS CSTL CAROLINAS. HAVE ADDED 30% POP TO THE FCST FOR MD              
ZONES...AND 20% MUCH OF INTERIOR AREAS. MAY STAY CLDY ALL DAY FAR               
NORTHEAST. FOR TEMP FCST TRENDED HIGHS DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO               
ACRS NRN ZONES WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL STAY ARND ALL DAY.                        
BEST RAIN CHANCE EASILY COMES TNGT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED                 
BY BOTH MODELS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT...RESULTING IN HIGH CHC TO              
LKLY POPS OVER NORTHERN TIER OF CWA (LKU TO WAL AND NORTH)...WITH               
SILENT POPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA. RAIN DOES APPEAR AS IF IT               
WL BE A (VERY MUCH WELCOME) LGT AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO CHOSE              
TO STICK WITH SHRA VICE TSRA. USED A MAV/FWC BLEND FOR LOWS THIS                
EVENING...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE U60S/ARND 70.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                         
DETERMINING FRONTAL POSITION HAS PROVED TO BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST              
CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO POINT TWDS FRONT               
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY/WAVERING SLIGHTLY THROUGH MON                       
NGT...WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS CARRING OVER TO BEGIN THE                
WORK WEEK. GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING CLDS MONDAY HAS BEEN KEPT                
IN TACT. GIVEN THIS THICKER CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                   
NORTH...TEMPERED MOS VALUES SLIGHTLY FOR MAX T MONDAY. THIS                     
YIELDED QUITE A THERMAL GRADIENT. U80S/NR 90 OVER THE NW...WITH                 
L/M90S ELSEWHERE INLAND. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 70S/L80S               
IN MD.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL              
RIDGE ACRS GULF COAST STATES...WHICH WILL KEEP HURRICANE DEAN WELL              
TO OUR SOUTH (SEE LATEST OFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC/TPC FOR DETAILS).               
TUE AND WED...MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACRS NEW            
ENGLAND...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACRS SC/GA. GFS/ECMWF MEAN                     
POSITION OF SFC TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT IS ACRS NRN PORTION OF THE              
CWA BOTH DAYS. HAVE CHC POPS NORTH...SCHC SOUTH BOTH DAYS. TEMPS                
AGAIN MUCH COOLER ACRS NE ZONES.                                                
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH LATE WED...AND FOR PERIOD THU THROUGH         
SAT HAVE GONE WITH JUST 20% DIURNAL TSTMS (OR LESS) AND HIGHER                  
TEMPS MAINLY BACK INTO THE 90S CWA WIDE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SC CLOUD DECK AND ASSCTD -RA MOVG SE FROM DC AREA THIS AM...ALTHOUGH            
ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. DESPITE THIS...DECIDED TO ADD A 2 HR                
TEMPO PRD FOR -RA THIS AM AT SBY. GAVE RIC MORE CLOUDS NXT FEW HRS              
AS WELL. MODELS CONT THE WETTER TREND AT SBY TONITE...SO TRENDED                
THE SBY TAF MORE PESSIMISTIC WRT CLOUD COVER/VSBY IN -RA AT SBY                 
(MVFR RANGE). RIC MAY SEE BKN SC DECK...BUT LTL IN WAY OF PCPN.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WNDS SLOWLY INCRG PAST HR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR PSBL               
SCA ACROSS CURRITUCK SND THIS AFTRN. OTW...VRY CHALLENGING FCST                 
THIS AM AS INCRG WNDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS AS                 
VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS MARINE AREA FOR THE NXT SVRL DAYS. ALL MODELS              
NOW INCRS S-SE FLOW (BTWN 15-20 KTS) OVR CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.                   
SO..IN COORD WITH LWX...HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR CHES BAY THRU ERLY               
EVE. GRDNT SLOWER TO INCRS ACROSS CURRITUCK SND... SO HELD BACK ON              
SCA THERE UNTIL AFTR MIDNITE...BUT CONT IT THRU MOST OF MON.                    
BUFKIT SHOWNG GUST PTNTL UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS AFTR                 
MIDNITE TONITE AS WELL AS INCRG SEAS TO 5 FT. SO...IN COORD WITH                
PHL...HAVE HOISTED SCA FOR MD CSTL WTRS LATE TONITE THRU MON.                   
ENDED FLAGS MON AFTRN AS FIRST EVENT ENDS. NXT EVENT WILL BE NRLY               
SURGE BEHIND FRNT LATE MON AFTRN. WILL NOT HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT              
ATTM (AS IT WILL PRBLY LEAD TO SOME CONFUSION AS TO JUST WHEN                   
SCA`S END AND BEGIN). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE THIS. SUFFICE                
IT TO SAY THAT ANTHR 4-6 HR NRLY SURGE XPCTD DOWN CHES BAY LATER                
MON...BUT CONFIDENCE RTHR LOW ATTM AS TO THE EXACT HRS THIS                     
OCCURS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.          
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS             
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632.                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY              
     FOR ANZ633.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BROWN                                                                
NEAR TERM...BROWN                                                               
SHORT TERM...MAM                                                                
LONG TERM...BROWN/MAM                                                           
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR/KCS                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA OVER THE W AND SW OVERNIGHT.               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF             
NOTE UPSTREAM. FIRST IS OVER WRN WI AND THE SECOND EXTENDS FROM SRN             
SASKATCHEWAN TO ERN ND. SHORTWAVE OVER WRN WI HAS TRIGGERED SCT                 
SHRA/TSRA IN WI WITH THUNDER AS CLOSE AS ABOUT 35 MILES S OF KIWD.              
HOWEVER...PCPN HAS YET TO ACTUALLY REACH UPPER MI...AND RADAR TRENDS            
THIS EVENING SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE S               
WITH TIME WHILE THE NRN PORTION DISSIPATES. NET RESULT IS A SE                  
MOTION. GUESS THAT`S NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE DROUGHT PATTERN THAT                 
DOMINATES THE FCST AREA.                                                        
SINCE WI SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED TO WEAKEN BY ALL GUIDANCE...                    
INCLUDING 00Z RUC...AS IT HEADS E AND SINCE A PERSISTENT E TO SE                
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF DRY AIR...DOUBT THAT PCPN WILL MAKE                
MUCH PROGRESS INTO FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER               
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME PCPN GIVEN BETTER               
MOISTURE DEPTH INDICATED BY 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. EVENING RADAR TRENDS             
ALSO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN             
TO ERN ND MAY SUPPORT SOME SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE            
IN THE NIGHT. SO...FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ALONG THE             
WI BORDER AREAS AND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP THE REST OF               
THE FCST AREA DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF                   
INSTABILITY IN UPPER MI AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING...WILL                  
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT)...                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                 
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS             
OF THE CWA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CMX TO SAW SITES.              
UNDER THE DENSE LOWER CLOUDS...MORNING DRIZZLE WAS NOTICED ON THE               
RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS                     
PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO DRY UP QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
AM CONTINUING TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF OUR NEXT WEATHER                      
MAKER...IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN                               
SASKATCHEWAN...SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN                
MANITOBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                              
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE             
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE                 
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY            
FOR TUESDAY.  THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED DOWN THE INCOMING TROUGH/COLD              
FRONT.  FOLLOWING SUIT THE 12Z GFS HAS DONE SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT             
STILL NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE NAM.  BOTH HAVE LINED UP CLOSER TO MY            
INITIAL THINKING...WHICH WAS A CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING                     
SETUP...DROUGHT EQUALS DROUGHT.                                                 
THEREFORE...WAS THINKING THAT THE WESTERN CWA WOULD ONCE AGAIN                  
RECEIVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE            
EAST WILL BE LUCKY TO GET MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OUT OF THIS              
SYSTEM.  SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...A SPLITTING OF THE                       
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE WESTERN               
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY JUST WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                       
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                     
FOR TUE NIGHT...TRIMMED BACK POPS WITH PWATS DROPPING AFTER 00Z                 
WED...AND INCREASED STABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.                 
LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW HAS ONLY THE SINGLE BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING               
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA...AND HAS THINGS CLEARING OUR OF THE                 
CENTRAL BY 00Z WED AND OUT OF THE FAR EAST BY 06Z. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH             
TRY TO BRING UP A SECOND PRECIP LOBE AFTER 06Z...H85 THETA E RIDGE              
CONTINUES TO SET UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA AND OVER SOUTHERN             
WI WITH ENERGY FROM FIRST SHORTWAVE TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF               
THE CWFA AND THE SECOND RIPPLING THROUGH THE KGRB AREA AROUND 12Z               
WED. MUCH LIKE THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL                     
WEEKS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MISSES UPPER MI.                                 
ON WED AND WED NIGHT...DIRTY LITTLE SHORTWWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CWFA AND           
KEEPS THE PICTURE MUDDLED FOR PRECIP CHANCES. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE              
AGAIN LOOKS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWFA AND THE JET DYNAMICS             
HIT BEST OVER ONTARIO. BY THU...BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY AGAIN BECOMES             
FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN             
LAKE AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE CURRENT WX GRID DEPICTS            
THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO WILL ESSENTIALLY LEAVE THIS UNTOUCHED. ON               
FRI...LOLLYGAGGING FRONT TO THE SE OF THE CWFA...AND THEN ADVANCING             
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN               
THE SE CWFA FOR THE TIMEFRAME...BUT KEEP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DRY.             
FOR SAT...IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z GEFS...THINGS LOOK GOOD FOR THE                
OPEN HOUSE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR                     
SOLUTIONS WITH COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 00Z FRI. DRIER AIR               
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE                   
NORTH...SAVE FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. A SECOND             
SYSTEM EXTENDING UP FROM THE PLAINS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA ON SAT...DEBATED WHETHER TO ADD                
POPS...BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY ATTM GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH            
SYSTEM WILL BE.                                                                 
FOR SUN AND MON...MORE UNCERTAINLY CURRENTLY EXISTS WITH MODELS                 
DIVERGING BETWEEN TROUGHINESS AND RIDGINESS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION            
OF THE CONUS...WITH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS POINTING TOWARD A FAIRLY                 
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EATERN CONUS AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTM...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY              
WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY LOW-LEVEL E TO SE FLOW HAS BEEN VERY EFFECTIVE AT PREVENTING                
MVFR CIGS OVER FAR W AND SW UPPER MI FROM EDGING E DURING THE AFTN.             
IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN SOME RETREAT OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK IN THE             
LAST FEW HRS. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN THESE CLOUDS              
WILL ADVANCE E TO KCMX/KSAW. OPTED TO DELAY MVFR CLOUD ARRIVAL FROM             
PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT DRY FLOW FROM THE              
SE (MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE NIGHT/TUE MORNING). PLENTY            
OF LOW END MVFR AND IFR CIGS DOMINATE LARGE PORTIONS OF WI AND MN.              
APPROACHING TROF TUE SHOULD EASILY SWEEP THESE LOW MVFR CIGS E TO               
KCMX/KSAW. FOR NOW...KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR RANGE...BUT WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE CIGS DROP INTO THAT RANGE MID/LATE AFTN ESPECIALLY             
IF PERSISTENT -SHRA OCCUR. AS FOR PCPN...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT                
HIGH ON PCPN OCCURRING...IT IS SUFFICIENT AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE              
PREVAILING -SHRA IN THE MID/LATE AFTN. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...              
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED. SHOULD                   
PERSISTENT -SHRA OCCUR...MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTION INTO THE MVFR            
RANGE DUE TO FOG LATE IN THE AFTN.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY AND A            
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN AN                
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH              
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
TUE...BUT REMAIN AS HIGH AS 25 KT ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL                
LATE TUE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PORTION OF            
THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR             
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT                      
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON TEMPORARILY ON            
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF/KC                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
150 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE IMET ON THE SLEEPER LAKE FIRE AND                   
LOOKING AT 09Z RUC/06Z NAM SOUNDINGS...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES TO              
NEAR 75 AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST                
FIRE WEATHER ZONE. IR SATELLITE LOOP AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH              
CLOUDS THINNING OUT ACROSS THIS ZONE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD            
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THUS              
RESULTING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS MENTION             
ABOVE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWERED BY 20-25 PERCENT FROM               
THE EARLIER FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ISSUED. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO                
MONITOR DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO              
BE 15 TO 20 MPH FROM A SE DIRECTION...NOT GOOD FOR THE SLEEPER LAKE             
FIRE. IF DEWPOINTS DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...SAY EITHER UPPER 30S TO            
AROUND 40...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED.                                
IN ADDITION...AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE MICHIGAN DNR AND                      
APX...WILL BE ISSUING A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR EASTERN                
ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT...LUCE AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT MON AUG 20)                                 
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES...TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH              
THE REMAINS OF ERIN...RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST                
U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.                 
NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF NOTE WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN                
ROCKIES WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUE WITH MORE SHORTWAVES FOR WED             
AND WED NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CORNBELT SHOULD STAY TO THE               
SOUTH OF AREA TODAY AND KEEP THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT SOUTH OF               
THE AREA AS WELL AS AIRMASS IS VERY DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT             
ACROSS MENOMINEE COUNTY. NAM SEEMS TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS QPF FIELD              
THIS EVENING AND IT HAS QPF INTO SOUTHERN CWA ALL DAY TODAY WHICH               
SEEMS OVERDONE.                                                                 
NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT                 
ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE WITH THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE             
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING TUE            
NIGHT AND WED WITH MORE MOISTURE AGAIN AND THEN HAS A COLD FRONT                
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND STALL OUT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH            
OF THE CWA WED NIGHT. GFS HAS ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.                 
THIS FORECAST WAS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT WITH THE NAM AND GFS                   
HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY FROM EACH OTHER WITH THE GFS HAVING                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND THE NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW WITH THINGS.             
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT              
FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR CHANGES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS               
LOW AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CWA GETS SPLIT WITH THE PCPN              
WITH SOME GOING NORTH AND MORE OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.             
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL IS NOT                
VERY HIGH YET WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                
ISSUES.                                                                         
FOR THIS MORNING...KEPT IN POPS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES             
AS SOME RAIN HAS MADE IT IN THERE AS KMNM HAS PICKED UP .27 INCH                
THROUGH 4 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THIS WHOLE EVENT. EVEN KIMT AND               
KLNL HAVE PICKED UP SOME PCPN AS WELL AND LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE             
THIS MORNING AS THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS HEADING EAST ACROSS ERN MN               
AND NORTHERN WI. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE SOUTH              
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT. FEEL THERE WILL              
BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP               
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND LOWERED               
HIGHS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SUN. WITH MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT...LOWS            
SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT WARMER AND WENT CLOSE TO ADJMAV FOR LOWS AND               
HIGHS. KEPT SLOWER TIMING OF POPS TONIGHT AND TUE GOING.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
BOTH SAW AND CMX CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR CEIGS THIS                         
AFTERNOON...AS THE DENSE CLOUD DECK TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ATTEMPTED              
TO INVADE.  HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS WINNING OUT...ESPECIALLY AT CMX.             
THESE BORDERLINE VFR TO MVFR CEIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                    
PERIOD.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT CMX LATE IN THE             
PERIOD AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT NEARS.  STILL EXPECT SAW TO REMAIN              
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AS SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM                    
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DIVIDES OVER THE CWA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY AND A            
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN A 15              
TO 25 KT WIND ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM THE             
E TODAY TO THE SE TONIGHT. THE AREA FROM THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO                 
DULUTH COULD EVEN SEE SOME 30 KT GUSTS THIS MORNING DUE TO FUNNELING            
EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
TUE...BUT REMAIN AS HIGH AS 25 KT ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL                
LATE TUE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PORTION OF            
THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR             
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT                      
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRI.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...MICHELS                                                            
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1022 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...WELL...RAIN ENDED UP SPREADING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN               
EARLIER THOUGHT...GENERALLY FOLLOWING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-32               
CORRIDOR...BUT DON`T BELIEVE TOO MANY FOLKS MINDED A LITTLE WATER.              
FARTHER NORTH PENETRATION INTO THE RESIDUAL DRY AIRMASS APPEARS                 
COMPLIMENTS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FRONTOTGENETICAL              
FORCING...WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING H85 JET REVVING ACROSS                
REMAINING TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE (+18C AT KILX COMPARED TO +8/+9C                
AT KBUF/KINL - NO APX RAOB PER RRS UPGRADE). 12Z RUC APPEARS TO                 
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB                    
LAYER...RESPONSIBLE FOR DECENT PRECIP BAND CUTTING ACROSS THE                   
CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION...PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER                  
VAPOR PICS CUTTING THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVING A BOOST TO                  
OVERALL COVERAGE. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS                     
OBVIOUSLY PLACEMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS (IF ANY) AS              
WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.                        
CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS              
AS FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL VEERING OF THE             
LOW LEVEL JET...AND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL                
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...CANNOT TOTALLY               
RULE OUT LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS               
THE FAR SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAKLY                 
CONFLUENT FLOW. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY DEEP LAYER RIDGING (SFC-700MB)               
SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY WILL REINFORCE DEEP                            
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EARLY                       
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK BACK SOUTH ONCE             
AGAIN AS DRY AIR (EVIDENT JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST) ERODES THE            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL THE WHILE...INCREASINGLY            
CONFLUENT FLOW AROUND 700MB SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A MID CLOUD DECK               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CALL IT JUST            
PLAIN CLOUDY SOUTH WHERE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THE MAJORITY OF            
THE DAY...TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH WITH DRYING (HOPEFULLY)               
WINNING OUT.                                                                    
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY                
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING              
TO REACH THE LOW 60S WHERE CLOUDS LINGER...TO THE LOW (AND PERHAPS              
MID) 70S UP NORTH GIVEN EXTRA INSOLATION COUPLED WITH H85 TEMPS                 
REBOUNDING TO AROUND 10C BY 21Z PER MODEL DEPICTION.                            
ON THE MARINE SIDE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE               
WHOLE HURON SHORELINE AS WELL AS ACROSS THE STRAITS GIVEN TIGHTENING            
GRADIENT WITH SOUTHEAST PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND EXPECTED RESPONSE             
OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS PER NAM GUIDANCE.            
CHANNELING OF THE WIND WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY THROUGH THE NARROW              
SHORELINE...WITH GUSTIER WINDS ALSO EXPECTED IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE             
REGIME ALONG THE COAST OF MACKINAC COUNTY.                                      
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007/                         
AVIATION...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH                
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF (INCLUDING THE                 
REMNANTS OF TD ERIN) WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF                  
RAINFALL TODAY. SHARP CUTOFF OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE            
FROM CVX TO GLR TO SPT. TVC SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITE IN NRN LOWER            
MICHIGAN IMPACTED BY THESE SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THAT WILL            
ACCOMPANY THEM. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER             
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PLN/APN. WINDSPEED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL              
INCREASE OUT OF THE E/SE TODAY.                                                 
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007/                               
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO HE OHIO                   
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. 850-700 MB TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NRN            
WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE                    
STRETCHES ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO (+8C H8 TEMP ACROSS NRN            
MICHIGAN...+20C NEAR CINCINNATI)...WITH A BAND OF 850-500 MB F-GEN              
EXTENDING THRU NRN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES              
TO STREAM INTO THE VCNTY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ENHANCED BY THE              
REMNANTS OF TD ERIN. LIFT AND MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF             
PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES OVER               
THE NEXT 48 HOURS REVOLVE AROUND CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM THIS                    
SYSTEM...AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REACH WITH HIGH             
PRESSURE/DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE             
TO THE SOUTH.                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AREA OF DPVA AND ENHANCED MOISTURE  AHEAD OF THE            
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. BEST            
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER              
MICHIGAN ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE              
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL                  
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DRY HIGH                   
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED NORTH OF MICHIGAN OVER ONTARIO...                   
MAINTAINING DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN             
PLAYER IN HOLDING THE RAIN SHIELD AT BAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A               
LINE FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY TO GRAYLING TO OSCODA. LOCATIONS SOUTH             
OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-NMRS SHRA THRU THIS MORNING.              
CHANCE POPS WILL PERSIST FOR SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE                 
REGION...SO CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE SMALL AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY                
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. LACK OF SUFFICIENT              
INSTABILITY (SURFACE-BASED OR ALOFT) WILL PRECLUDE CHANCES OF                   
THUNDER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY               
THRU THIS EVENING. INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOSS OF                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BRING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP TO AN END BY                 
MIDNIGHT OR SO. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO              
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED              
BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO              
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S (COOLER IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA IN               
PROXIMITY TO CHANCES OF PRECIP AND THICKER CLOUD COVER). LOW TEMPS              
TONIGHT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.                 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL PERSIST INTO               
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN                
CONTROL. UPSTREAM WARM FRONT AND NARROW BAND OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE             
WILL REACH WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WORKING ITS              
WAY THRU OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY FINALLY             
GET A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FROM THIS FEATURE AS BEST MOISTURE AND DPVA             
VIA A SHORT WAVE ALIGN WITH THE FRONT MOVE THRU THE NRN HALF OF THE             
CWA. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE             
CWA...BUT FOCUS SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.                
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY             
LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...LIMITED BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER             
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE            
LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LOW LEVEL WAA COMMENCING BEHIND THE WARM                  
FRONT.                                                                          
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST AS MODEL DERIVED                
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO PLAY HAVOC WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH            
OF SYSTEMS SLATED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES IN QUASI-ZONAL MID AND            
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHEAST CONUS MID            
LEVEL RIDGING. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL CONTINUE                        
CONSERVATIVE THEME AND MAKE FEW...IF ANY...CHANGES THROUGH THIS                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
WEDNESDAY...WEAK COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT STILL SLATED TO APPROACH                   
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GROWING EVIDENCE IN LATEST               
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY LATEST NAM-WRF AND ECMWF MODELS...THAT FRONT              
MAY STALL BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHERN LAKES. AT THE OTHER END OF THE           
SPECTRUM IS THE LATEST GFS...WHICH SPAWNS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED                
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH                   
CROSSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THESE                                
UNCERTAINTIES...FELT BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO LEAVE GOING LOW               
POPS ALONE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE             
LOW TO MID TEENS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID             
80S.                                                                            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE                      
CORRECT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST INTO THE                 
AREA. AS STATED...WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE                
GOING IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST. COULD EASILY SEE THE                 
ADDITION OF POPS FOR PART...OR ALL...OF THIS TIME FRAME IN                      
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                                                           
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HOW SYSTEM BEHAVES DURING THE                 
MIDWEEK WILL HAVE A GREAT BEARING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT FOR LATER              
IN THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY ACTIVE               
PERIOD OF WEATHER AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...AS WAVES OF LOW               
PRESSURE RIDE UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL                
RESIDE REMAINS THE ELUSIVE ANSWER.                                              
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
136 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                               
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW RIDGING              
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS             
RIDGE IS BRACKETED BY UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST            
AND OVER EASTERN QUEBEC. A SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN ROTATING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON...AND THIS IS THE NEXT              
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA...ALTHOUGH            
IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER AS IT WORKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE                
UPPER RIDGE. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WNW-ESE ORIENTED AREA            
OF PCPN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH                
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY CORRELATES WELL              
WITH AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY              
SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF            
THE CWFA OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE                
THEY COULD CLIP MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS                    
EVENING...BUT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS WOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF THE                
AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN AS            
WELL AS ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH. UTILIZED A                     
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR                   
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IF ANY                   
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DO MANAGE TO                 
NUDGE IT SLIGHTLY NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD             
BRING THE SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SO                
ALLOWED FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS             
FAR AS PCPN GOES...CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH            
MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH                         
MONDAY...WITH A PERSIST AREA OF GOOD 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS                    
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E             
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS AXIS OF                             
CONVERGENCE...FRONTOGENESIS...MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY             
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IF ANYTHING...THE PERSISTENT PCPN                
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY AND HELP KEEP IT            
TIED UP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE DRY EASTERLY             
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SHOULD                
HELP KEEP ANY RENEGADE SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PEELING OFF INTO OUR AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHER               
POPS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW THE                   
THRESHOLD OF MENTIONING ANY ACTUAL PCPN. IF RADAR TRENDS                        
CHANGE...THEN THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN            
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW.                    
.LONG DISCUSSION (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)...                                        
QUESTION FOR MON NGT IS WHETHER UPR LO OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTING ACRS            
SRN CAN CAN GENERATE ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE                     
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ACRS ERN CAN THAT WL TEND TO HOLD DRY CNDN HI/               
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS AND THE PRESENCE OF            
PERSISTENT/ANNOYING BNDRY TO THE S THAT WL INTERCEPT MSTR RETURN IN             
ADVANCE OF SLUGGISH UPR LO MOVING ONLY INTO CNTRL CAN AT 12Z TUE...             
HAVE TENDED TO FOLLOW A SLOWER/DRIER NAM SCENARIO AND RESTRICT POPS             
TO THE FAR WRN CWA THRU 12Z TUE TO THE W OF MODEST H85 LLJ AXIS                 
(ONLY UP TO 30 KTS) AS SHOWN BY THE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.                   
OTRW...RETURN OF HIER PWAT WL TRANSLATE INTO INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ABV             
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E             
CLOSER TO PERSISTENT HI CENTER/DRIER AIR.                                       
ON TUE...GUIDANCE SHOWS COMMA TAIL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW                 
MOVING LO ACRS SCNTRL CAN SWINGING W-E ACRS THE CWA. OPTED TO LOWER             
GOING 40 POPS TO 30 EXCEPT OVER THE NW SINCE NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW                 
SHARPER DPVA/H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING TO THE N OVER ONTARIO...              
CWA PROGGED TO FALL INTO UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX MOVING                
THRU NRN MN IN SUPPORT OF CYC IN SCNTRL CAN... AND FCST SDNGS HINT              
AT DRY AIR TRYING TO HOLD IN WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT HGT FALLS.                   
LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MUCH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH                  
EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER AND LLVL SE FLOW.                
BEST CHC FOR WARMER TEMPS WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE CLDS MAY THIN                
LATE IN THE DAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR TO THE E.           
ON TUE NGT/WED...12Z UKMET IS FASTER/DEEPER THAN GFS WITH SFC WAVE              
FCST TO RIDE ENEWD IN WSW FLOW ALF BTWN SLOW MOVING VORTEX ACRS                 
SCNTRL CAN AND UPR RDG OVER THE SE STATES. CUT POPS BACK TO 20 OVER             
THE ENTIRE FA ON TUE EVNG BEFORE INCRSG POPS TO 30 AFT MIDNGT OVER              
THE SCNTRL AND E TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL LO PRES WAVE THAT WOULD               
RIDE NEWD. MAINTAINED THE LOWER POPS OVER THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR HIER            
PROBABILITY WAVE WL TRACK ALG PERSISTENT BNDRY FARTHER S.                       
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD FOLLOWING PCPN CHCS ON WED...HI PRES RDG              
LOOKS TO BE BLDG TOWARD THE FA ON THU. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING SFC FNT            
HANGS UP JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA...WARY ABOUT A DRY FCST...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND E. IN FACT...12Z GFS SHOWS A SERIES              
OF WAVES RIDING ENEWD ON THIS BNDRY AND DUMPING QUITE A PIT OF PCPN             
ON AREAS SE OF CRYSTAL FALLS TO MQT. THEN QUESTIONS AS TO EXTENT OF             
SFC DVLPMNT/TRACK OF LO PRES IN THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE FRI-SAT                
TIME. 00Z ECWMF/GFS/UKMET/12Z CNDN SHOW A DEEPER UPR TROF DVLPG IN              
THE PLAINS WITH THE RESULT A SOMEWHAT DEEPER WAVE TRACKING FARTHER N            
TOWARD NRN LWR MI FRI NGT WITH DEEPER RH/CYC NE FLOW OVER THE CWA.              
00Z CNDN/06Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE A BIT FLATTER WITH THE                   
TROF/SFC WAVE AND SHOW DEEPER RH/MAIN BODY OF PCPN STAYING TO THE S.            
12Z GFS HAS COMPLETELY SHIFTED GEARS AND SHOWS DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO            
THE AREA ON SAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LAST WAVE ON THE FNT THU NGT.              
ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS REFCST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE 00Z CNDN/06Z            
GFS SCENARIO...NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE              
DEEPER 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/12Z CNDN FCST. SO FOLLOWED THIS FCST                 
SCENARIO...WITH EXPECTED TEMPS BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON SAT WITH                
STEADY NE FLOW. THEN COOL/DRIER ON SUN WITH NW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING              
LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY.                              
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/LOT/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MODELS SUGGEST THAT 925-850 MB MOISTURE OVER WI AND LAKE MI WILL                
PUSH NORTHWARD...AS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE 02Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM             
SAW SHOWING NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS AROUND 4000 FT. SURFACE                 
OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY NEAR THE WI BORDER INDICATE 2500-3500 FT                 
CIGS. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD BE SLOW...DUE TO EASTERLY                
FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR IN FROM ONTARIO. HAVE DECIDED TO LIFT CIGS               
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOON AT SAW DUE TO DAYTIME                    
HEATING...BUT THEN BROUGHT THEM BACK DOWN TO MVFR IN THE EVENING AS             
COOLING OCCURS. SOMETHING SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN AT CMX...BUT EASTERLY            
WINDS UPSLOPING MAY PREVENT THAT FROM OCCURING. NO PCPN EXPECTED AT             
EITHER TAF SITE SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY SOUTH.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL                   
GRUDGINGLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WARM FRONT TO             
THE SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY            
NOT MAKE IT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A                
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH A HIGH TO            
THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WE WILL GENERALLY SEE                 
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY                  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST                
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE            
LAKE DURING THAT TIME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TRH                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...TRH                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT THRU MON)...(ISSUED 335 PM EDT)                    
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW RIDGING              
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS             
RIDGE IS BRACKETED BY UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST            
AND OVER EASTERN QUEBEC. A SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN ROTATING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON...AND THIS IS THE NEXT              
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA...ALTHOUGH            
IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER AS IT WORKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE                
UPPER RIDGE. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WNW-ESE ORIENTED AREA            
OF PCPN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH                
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY CORRELATES WELL              
WITH AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY              
SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF            
THE CWFA OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE                
THEY COULD CLIP MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS                    
EVENING...BUT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS WOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF THE                
AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN AS            
WELL AS ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH. UTILIZED A                     
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR                   
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IF ANY                   
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DO MANAGE TO                 
NUDGE IT SLIGHTLY NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD             
BRING THE SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SO                
ALLOWED FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS             
FAR AS PCPN GOES...CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH            
MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH                         
MONDAY...WITH A PERSIST AREA OF GOOD 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS                    
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E             
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS AXIS OF                             
CONVERGENCE...FRONTOGENESIS...MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY             
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IF ANYTHING...THE PERSISTENT PCPN                
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY AND HELP KEEP IT            
TIED UP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE DRY EASTERLY             
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SHOULD                
HELP KEEP ANY RENEGADE SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PEELING OFF INTO OUR AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHER               
POPS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW THE                   
THRESHOLD OF MENTIONING ANY ACTUAL PCPN. IF RADAR TRENDS                        
CHANGE...THEN THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN            
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW.                    
.LONG DISCUSSION (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                          
QUESTION FOR MON NGT IS WHETHER UPR LO OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTING ACRS            
SRN CAN CAN GENERATE ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE                     
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ACRS ERN CAN THAT WL TEND TO HOLD DRY CNDN HI/               
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS AND THE PRESENCE OF            
PERSISTENT/ANNOYING BNDRY TO THE S THAT WL INTERCEPT MSTR RETURN IN             
ADVANCE OF SLUGGISH UPR LO MOVING ONLY INTO CNTRL CAN AT 12Z TUE...             
HAVE TENDED TO FOLLOW A SLOWER/DRIER NAM SCENARIO AND RESTRICT POPS             
TO THE FAR WRN CWA THRU 12Z TUE TO THE W OF MODEST H85 LLJ AXIS                 
(ONLY UP TO 30 KTS) AS SHOWN BY THE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.                   
OTRW...RETURN OF HIER PWAT WL TRANSLATE INTO INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ABV             
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E             
CLOSER TO PERSISTENT HI CENTER/DRIER AIR.                                       
ON TUE...GUIDANCE SHOWS COMMA TAIL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW                 
MOVING LO ACRS SCNTRL CAN SWINGING W-E ACRS THE CWA. OPTED TO LOWER             
GOING 40 POPS TO 30 EXCEPT OVER THE NW SINCE NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW                 
SHARPER DPVA/H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING TO THE N OVER ONTARIO...              
CWA PROGGED TO FALL INTO UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX MOVING                
THRU NRN MN IN SUPPORT OF CYC IN SCNTRL CAN... AND FCST SDNGS HINT              
AT DRY AIR TRYING TO HOLD IN WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT HGT FALLS.                   
LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MUCH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH                  
EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER AND LLVL SE FLOW.                
BEST CHC FOR WARMER TEMPS WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE CLDS MAY THIN                
LATE IN THE DAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR TO THE E.           
ON TUE NGT/WED...12Z UKMET IS FASTER/DEEPER THAN GFS WITH SFC WAVE              
FCST TO RIDE ENEWD IN WSW FLOW ALF BTWN SLOW MOVING VORTEX ACRS                 
SCNTRL CAN AND UPR RDG OVER THE SE STATES. CUT POPS BACK TO 20 OVER             
THE ENTIRE FA ON TUE EVNG BEFORE INCRSG POPS TO 30 AFT MIDNGT OVER              
THE SCNTRL AND E TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL LO PRES WAVE THAT WOULD               
RIDE NEWD. MAINTAINED THE LOWER POPS OVER THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR HIER            
PROBABILITY WAVE WL TRACK ALG PERSISTENT BNDRY FARTHER S.                       
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD FOLLOWING PCPN CHCS ON WED...HI PRES RDG              
LOOKS TO BE BLDG TOWARD THE FA ON THU. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING SFC FNT            
HANGS UP JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA...WARY ABOUT A DRY FCST...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND E. IN FACT...12Z GFS SHOWS A SERIES              
OF WAVES RIDING ENEWD ON THIS BNDRY AND DUMPING QUITE A PIT OF PCPN             
ON AREAS SE OF CRYSTAL FALLS TO MQT. THEN QUESTIONS AS TO EXTENT OF             
SFC DVLPMNT/TRACK OF LO PRES IN THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE FRI-SAT                
TIME. 00Z ECWMF/GFS/UKMET/12Z CNDN SHOW A DEEPER UPR TROF DVLPG IN              
THE PLAINS WITH THE RESULT A SOMEWHAT DEEPER WAVE TRACKING FARTHER N            
TOWARD NRN LWR MI FRI NGT WITH DEEPER RH/CYC NE FLOW OVER THE CWA.              
00Z CNDN/06Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE A BIT FLATTER WITH THE                   
TROF/SFC WAVE AND SHOW DEEPER RH/MAIN BODY OF PCPN STAYING TO THE S.            
12Z GFS HAS COMPLETELY SHIFTED GEARS AND SHOWS DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO            
THE AREA ON SAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LAST WAVE ON THE FNT THU NGT.              
ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS REFCST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE 00Z CNDN/06Z            
GFS SCENARIO...NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE              
DEEPER 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/12Z CNDN FCST. SO FOLLOWED THIS FCST                 
SCENARIO...WITH EXPECTED TEMPS BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON SAT WITH                
STEADY NE FLOW. THEN COOL/DRIER ON SUN WITH NW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING              
LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY.                              
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/LOT/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER AS               
YOU HEAD SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL TRY              
TO CREEP A BIT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT CEILINGS               
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD                
SNEAK INTO KSAW TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING                
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO NO            
PCPN IS EXPECTED.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL                   
GRUDGINGLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WARM FRONT TO             
THE SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY            
NOT MAKE IT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A                
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH A HIGH TO            
THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WE WILL GENERALLY SEE                 
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY                  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST                
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE            
LAKE DURING THAT TIME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TRH                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...TRH                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT THRU MON)...                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW RIDGING              
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS             
RIDGE IS BRACKETED BY UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST            
AND OVER EASTERN QUEBEC. A SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN ROTATING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON...AND THIS IS THE NEXT              
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA...ALTHOUGH            
IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER AS IT WORKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE                
UPPER RIDGE. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WNW-ESE ORIENTED AREA            
OF PCPN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH                
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY CORRELATES WELL              
WITH AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY              
SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF            
THE CWFA OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE                
THEY COULD CLIP MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS                    
EVENING...BUT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS WOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF THE                
AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN AS            
WELL AS ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH. UTILIZED A                     
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR                   
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IF ANY                   
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DO MANAGE TO                 
NUDGE IT SLIGHTLY NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD             
BRING THE SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SO                
ALLOWED FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS             
FAR AS PCPN GOES...CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH            
MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH                         
MONDAY...WITH A PERSIST AREA OF GOOD 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS                    
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E             
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS AXIS OF                             
CONVERGENCE...FRONTOGENESIS...MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY             
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IF ANYTHING...THE PERSISTENT PCPN                
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY AND HELP KEEP IT            
TIED UP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE DRY EASTERLY             
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SHOULD                
HELP KEEP ANY RENEGADE SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PEELING OFF INTO OUR AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHER               
POPS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW THE                   
THRESHOLD OF MENTIONING ANY ACTUAL PCPN. IF RADAR TRENDS                        
CHANGE...THEN THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN            
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW.                    
.LONG DISCUSSION (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                          
QUESTION FOR MON NGT IS WHETHER UPR LO OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTING ACRS            
SRN CAN CAN GENERATE ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE                     
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ACRS ERN CAN THAT WL TEND TO HOLD DRY CNDN HI/               
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS AND THE PRESENCE OF            
PERSISTENT/ANNOYING BNDRY TO THE S THAT WL INTERCEPT MSTR RETURN IN             
ADVANCE OF SLUGGISH UPR LO MOVING ONLY INTO CNTRL CAN AT 12Z TUE...             
HAVE TENDED TO FOLLOW A SLOWER/DRIER NAM SCENARIO AND RESTRICT POPS             
TO THE FAR WRN CWA THRU 12Z TUE TO THE W OF MODEST H85 LLJ AXIS                 
(ONLY UP TO 30 KTS) AS SHOWN BY THE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.                   
OTRW...RETURN OF HIER PWAT WL TRANSLATE INTO INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ABV             
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E             
CLOSER TO PERSISTENT HI CENTER/DRIER AIR.                                       
ON TUE...GUIDANCE SHOWS COMMA TAIL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW                 
MOVING LO ACRS SCNTRL CAN SWINGING W-E ACRS THE CWA. OPTED TO LOWER             
GOING 40 POPS TO 30 EXCEPT OVER THE NW SINCE NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW                 
SHARPER DPVA/H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING TO THE N OVER ONTARIO...              
CWA PROGGED TO FALL INTO UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX MOVING                
THRU NRN MN IN SUPPORT OF CYC IN SCNTRL CAN... AND FCST SDNGS HINT              
AT DRY AIR TRYING TO HOLD IN WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT HGT FALLS.                   
LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MUCH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH                  
EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER AND LLVL SE FLOW.                
BEST CHC FOR WARMER TEMPS WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE CLDS MAY THIN                
LATE IN THE DAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR TO THE E.           
ON TUE NGT/WED...12Z UKMET IS FASTER/DEEPER THAN GFS WITH SFC WAVE              
FCST TO RIDE ENEWD IN WSW FLOW ALF BTWN SLOW MOVING VORTEX ACRS                 
SCNTRL CAN AND UPR RDG OVER THE SE STATES. CUT POPS BACK TO 20 OVER             
THE ENTIRE FA ON TUE EVNG BEFORE INCRSG POPS TO 30 AFT MIDNGT OVER              
THE SCNTRL AND E TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL LO PRES WAVE THAT WOULD               
RIDE NEWD. MAINTAINED THE LOWER POPS OVER THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR HIER            
PROBABILITY WAVE WL TRACK ALG PERSISTENT BNDRY FARTHER S.                       
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD FOLLOWING PCPN CHCS ON WED...HI PRES RDG              
LOOKS TO BE BLDG TOWARD THE FA ON THU. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING SFC FNT            
HANGS UP JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA...WARY ABOUT A DRY FCST...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND E. IN FACT...12Z GFS SHOWS A SERIES              
OF WAVES RIDING ENEWD ON THIS BNDRY AND DUMPING QUITE A PIT OF PCPN             
ON AREAS SE OF CRYSTAL FALLS TO MQT. THEN QUESTIONS AS TO EXTENT OF             
SFC DVLPMNT/TRACK OF LO PRES IN THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE FRI-SAT                
TIME. 00Z ECWMF/GFS/UKMET/12Z CNDN SHOW A DEEPER UPR TROF DVLPG IN              
THE PLAINS WITH THE RESULT A SOMEWHAT DEEPER WAVE TRACKING FARTHER N            
TOWARD NRN LWR MI FRI NGT WITH DEEPER RH/CYC NE FLOW OVER THE CWA.              
00Z CNDN/06Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE A BIT FLATTER WITH THE                   
TROF/SFC WAVE AND SHOW DEEPER RH/MAIN BODY OF PCPN STAYING TO THE S.            
12Z GFS HAS COMPLETELY SHIFTED GEARS AND SHOWS DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO            
THE AREA ON SAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LAST WAVE ON THE FNT THU NGT.              
ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS REFCST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE 00Z CNDN/06Z            
GFS SCENARIO...NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE              
DEEPER 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/12Z CNDN FCST. SO FOLLOWED THIS FCST                 
SCENARIO...WITH EXPECTED TEMPS BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON SAT WITH                
STEADY NE FLOW. THEN COOL/DRIER ON SUN WITH NW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING              
LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY.                              
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/LOT/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER AS               
YOU HEAD SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DIURNAL            
CU AND HIGH CIRRUS...LOOK FOR VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER             
AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL TRY              
TO CREEP A BIT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT CEILINGS               
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD                
SNEAK INTO KSAW TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING                
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO NO            
PCPN IS EXPECTED.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL                   
GRUDGINGLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WARM FRONT TO             
THE SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY            
NOT MAKE IT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A                
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH A HIGH TO            
THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WE WILL GENERALLY SEE                 
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY                  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST                
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE            
LAKE DURING THAT TIME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TRH                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...TRH                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
120 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE                
RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT VFR                      
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A MID             
TO UPPER LEVEL OVERCAST. A WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO                
VALLEY MAY DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KTVC TOMORROW EVENING.                      
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY RAIN TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
LUTZ/MSB                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1041 PM                                                        
AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS EVENING...THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE              
BEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRIMMED THE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH               
AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN AS THE RAIN LOOKING UPSTREAM ARE                   
SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE, THE                  
TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD WITH THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS OVER THE REGION            
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS KEEPING THE WINDS DOWN TONIGHT.                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM                                                
ANOTHER NICE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FULLY              
IN CONTROL WILL TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.             
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A BUILDING LOW/ MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL CENTERED               
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT BEGINNING TO SLIP EAST EVER-SO-SLOWLY.             
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE FULLY UNDERWAY...WITH            
ONGOING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING TO DRIVE A RATHER                    
EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN. IT IS                
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN            
FOR TONIGHT...NAMELY WILL IT AFFECT THE CWA AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THE            
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                       
QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED                
AREA OF PRECIP THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...OWING                 
PRIMARILY TO APPARENT ADDED JET DIVERGENCE...WITH JET ENTRANCE                  
REGION SLIPPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS A                    
PRONOUNCED VORT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA PER RUC ANALYSIS/            
WATER VAPOR PICS (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER THE                  
BLACK HILLS?). HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSED AT PRECIP`S ABILITY TO                
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS JUST TO THE WEST...WITH QUITE A FEW SITES                  
GOING FROM BKN-OVC200 DOWN TO OVC070 WITH PRECIP IN AN HOUR...ALSO              
SUGGESTING FORCED ASCENT A BIT BETTER THAN MODELS CREDIT. THIS ALL              
LEADS TO A RATHER MURKY PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE APX CWA OVERNIGHT...            
AS THINKING HAS BEEN DRY AIR WOULD WIN OUT...AND IT DOES APPEAR                 
THIS WILL WORK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT HAVE HAD TO RE-EVALUATE              
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE                
THERE...WITH DECENT 305-310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (25-30 KNOTS UP                 
THE SURFACE) ON THE INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES...WITH                 
DEEP LAYER (900-700MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AS WELL                 
GIVEN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES.               
HOWEVER...RH PROGS ON THESE SURFACES AND SFC-H85 THETA-E ALSO SHOW              
A SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEP MOISTURE...AS BOTH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH               
TAKES OVER TONIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SFC-700MB RH LESS THAN 35%) HOLD FIRM.                   
THUS...WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT STILL                 
LOOKS OK...HAVE TRENDED POPS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME                
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE 09Z SREF/12Z UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A                
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP. STILL NOT TALKING ABOUT A WHOLE                
LOT OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAIN IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. NO THREAT OF               
ANY THUNDER OWING TO LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FLAT               
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF               
CLOUD COVER. CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE               
SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE...WHILE MAY                
VERY WELL SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER                     
SUBSIDENCE. WILL HOLD NUMBERS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF                
RATHER COOL READINGS (LOWER 40S...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 30S) FAR NORTH             
GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN WITH FLOW DECOUPLING AND RESIDUAL               
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
LONG TERM...RECENT PATTERN OF TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND              
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN BETWEEN               
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK...AS                    
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST...ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN                  
RESPONSE. THIS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO EVEN REACH LOWER MI UNTIL               
LATER MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN WILL PROBABLY HANG ALONG THE SOUTHERN              
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL             
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE                  
FORECAST WILL BASICALLY DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT FOR                  
RAIN WILL REACH.                                                                
SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION TO BE GOING SOUTHWEST/                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START SUNDAY MORNING ALONG                        
FRONTOGENETICALLY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI (ACTUAL WARM FRONT              
WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/CENTRAL IN). AXIS OF                   
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS WELL...NAM TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE/QPF FARTHER NORTH                    
ALTHOUGH ITS PRESUMED MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH                 
(AS DOES ITS WARM FRONTAL POSITION). BUT RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY                
JUMP ONTO ONE SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION GIVEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY                   
HAPPENING UPSTREAM TODAY...WILL SIMPLY EXPAND CURRENT RAIN CHANCES              
NORTH AND EAST A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A BIGGER MARGIN OF ERROR.                     
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE MORE OF A                
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION                
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WARM                      
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WI.                                                     
MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID               
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG                  
WITH SOME ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS              
SOUTH OF M-72 TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION REMAINS SOUTH                
OF THE STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. "ERIN" GETTING                 
SCOOPED UP AND INVOLVED WITH HAPPENINGS ALONG THE WARM FRONT                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THIS DOES                
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR NORTHERN MI.                                      
EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HEIGHT FALLS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT                
THE WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE IN THE LATER TUESDAY TIME FRAME...                
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THIS PROGRESSION...THOUGH               
IF THE WARM FRONT TIMING IS SLOW AREAS FARTHER NORTH COULD END UP               
BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND THAT IS A CONCERN THAT WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY                
AND BEYOND...ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW               
DOWN AND PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP               
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE END UP WITH...             
ASSUMING FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS LOWER MI/WI...WE COULD BE              
STARING AT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT                     
EXACTLY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES                
THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY...ACTUALLY THINK THE OPPOSITE MAY BE A                  
BETTER WAY TO GO AND WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION                   
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST              
CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE A                 
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION                      
COVERAGE EACH DAY.                                                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
114 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE...(ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT SAT AUG 18)                                     
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM                        
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BECOMING SMALLER               
WIDTH WISE...NOW MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.                   
HOWEVER...THIS CONCENTRATED ZONE NOW CONSISTS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850MB               
NOTED ON THE BLUE RIVER WISCONSIN PROFILER (NOW 30-35KT) IMPINGING              
ON THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF HEAT AND                   
MOISTURE EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUSTAIN THE                    
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO                    
HOME...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE MENOMINEE AREA              
BETWEEN 20-24Z...THE CWA REMAINS DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                   
CROSSING. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL                   
FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AIDING IN THE                   
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SW.                                                      
WITH THE SHOWERS DRYING UP FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EAST-CENTRAL                    
WI...THERE IS CONCERN THAT PCPN MAY BE ENTIRELY DONE NOW MENOMINEE              
COUNTY (THE ONLY PLACE WITH -SHRA MENTION IN THE CWA). TWO THINGS               
COULD BE OCCURRING THAT IS CAUSING THE DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS:                  
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI IS                 
INHIBITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS NORTHERN WI AND/OR THE                    
COMBINATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL JET                
CIRCULATIONS ARE DRIVING DRIER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD. 20Z TAMDAR                    
SOUNDING FROM CHIPPEWA COUNTY AIRPORT SHOWED A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE            
600-800MB LAYER (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C OR MORE). GIVEN THAT               
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CONFLUENT WITH HEIGHTS                
RISING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING IN NEW                         
ENGLAND...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE SHOWERS NORTHWARD. THE               
18Z GFS CONCURS WITH THIS IDEA...AND THUS HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE                
SHOWERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH 18Z MON.                                          
GOING TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH SINCE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUT               
EAST AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER THERE...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP TEMPS A            
FEW MORE DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.25 INCH                 
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...SUGGESTING LOWS SHOULD NOT GET AS COLD.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE PAC NW A RDG              
FROM THE PLAINS TO SASK AND A TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN WI TO NRN IA WAS MOVING E. AT THE                     
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING              
THROUGH CNTRL IA TO ERN MO. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF TH 250-300 JET AND 850-700 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED            
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM ERN MN            
THROUGH THE S 2/3 OF WI. TSRA WERE CONFINED TO A BAND CLOSER TO THE             
FRONT...FROM SRN MN INTO SW WI AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED MID               
HIGH CLOUDS HAD THINNED OUT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
REMAINING NEAR THE WI BORDER. RADARS ALSO SHOWED RETURNS CREEPING               
FROM WI CLOSER TO THE BORDER BUT WITH SFC -RA REPORTS LAGGING                   
FARTHER TO THE S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL 850-650 MB DRY            
LAYER PER 18Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND EARLIER KRHI SOUNDING.                  
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY E OR ESE SHIFT             
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL                 
PROGRESS OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WILL             
BE MARGINAL. SO...LOWER END POPS WERE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SRN                
HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                                       
ALTHOUGH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED            
TO LAST NIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INLAND TEMPS            
TO DROP INTO THE 40S. SIMILARLY...MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN                 
SUNDAY AND DECENT SUNSHINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C SUPPORTS                 
MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S.                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
STUBBORN PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE BY EARLY IN THE WORK                   
WEEK...NEVERTHELESS SFC HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHUNT              
THE BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES                
SOUTH WITH IT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS            
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER                
WEST CENTRAL CANADA TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM            
00Z TUE TO 00Z WED. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES INTO                 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY TUE MORNING WARRANTS CONTINUED MENTION              
OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
ENERGY COULD AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY                
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO LEND TO THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE              
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE            
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOST MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD              
BE OVER THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AREA.                                         
LOOKING AT SOME PARAMETERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON               
THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z             
WED...0-6 BULK SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR                
INCREASES FROM 30-35 KT TO THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...0-2 SHEAR                
TOPS OUT AROUND 30-40 KT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. KIMT            
HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CLOCKWISE SPIN ALONG WITH AN LCL AROUND 1000             
FT AT 21Z TUE. MUCAPES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...PEAKING AROUND 2200 J/KG            
AT KIWD IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING/CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEVERMIND IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE                   
WEST/WEST CENTRAL...DID NOT INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD               
BUT MENTIONED IN HWO.                                                           
MODELS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME                  
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH...AND DIGGING UP A LOW FROM THE PLAINS              
AND EJECTING IT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDIGING OVER               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY DAY 7. SO...GIVEN THE DECENT                          
AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OPEN HOUSE...SCHEDULED              
FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO...PROVIDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                 
HOLDING ON FROM HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK             
FOR A GENERAL EAST WIND...WITH INCREASING SPEED ON SUNDAY AS THE                
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO             
SRN WI. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES AS            
INLAND WARMING CREATES LAKE BREEZES...ADDING ONTO THE WIND SPEED.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E AND SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
HIGH PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY AND             
A LOW PRES TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN MN AND SRN WI. WINDS INTO THE                
15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDSPEED OVER THE FAR             
WRN LAKE FAVORED BY PRES UPSTREAM UPSTREAM PRES FALLS AND TERRAIN               
EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1041 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS EVENING, THE RAIN                  
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRIMMED THE RAIN                
FARTHER SOUTH AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN AS THE RAIN LOOKING                  
UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES.                    
OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD WITH THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS             
OVER THE REGION AND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS KEEPING THE WINDS DOWN            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 802 PM                                                       
RAIN IS MAINLY SOUTH OF M-55 SO FOR THE SHORT TERM, TVC WILL STAY               
OUT OF THE RAIN, THOUGH SPRINKLES AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. APN               
AND PLN ARE TOO FAR NORTH AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE                 
FOLLOWING THE GFS CONFIGURATION TO THE QPF. MBL IS SHOWING 10SM, AND            
REPORTED 0.01 LAST HOUR SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT THE GOING               
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE THINKING IN THE PUBLIC                    
FORECAST AS WELL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE            
FORECAST DRY WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR TVC. THE WIND LOOKS TO              
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNTS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.                                        
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM                                                
ANOTHER NICE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FULLY              
IN CONTROL WILL TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.             
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A BUILDING LOW/ MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL CENTERED               
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT BEGINNING TO SLIP EAST EVER-SO-SLOWLY.             
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE FULLY UNDERWAY...WITH            
ONGOING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING TO DRIVE A RATHER                    
EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN. IT IS                
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN            
FOR TONIGHT...NAMELY WILL IT AFFECT THE CWA AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THE            
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                       
QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED                
AREA OF PRECIP THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...OWING                 
PRIMARILY TO APPARENT ADDED JET DIVERGENCE...WITH JET ENTRANCE                  
REGION SLIPPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS A                    
PRONOUNCED VORT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA PER RUC ANALYSIS/            
WATER VAPOR PICS (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER THE                  
BLACK HILLS?). HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSED AT PRECIP`S ABILITY TO                
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS JUST TO THE WEST...WITH QUITE A FEW SITES                  
GOING FROM BKN-OVC200 DOWN TO OVC070 WITH PRECIP IN AN HOUR...ALSO              
SUGGESTING FORCED ASCENT A BIT BETTER THAN MODELS CREDIT. THIS ALL              
LEADS TO A RATHER MURKY PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE APX CWA OVERNIGHT...            
AS THINKING HAS BEEN DRY AIR WOULD WIN OUT...AND IT DOES APPEAR                 
THIS WILL WORK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT HAVE HAD TO RE-EVALUATE              
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE                
THERE...WITH DECENT 305-310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (25-30 KNOTS UP                 
THE SURFACE) ON THE INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES...WITH                 
DEEP LAYER (900-700MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AS WELL                 
GIVEN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES.               
HOWEVER...RH PROGS ON THESE SURFACES AND SFC-H85 THETA-E ALSO SHOW              
A SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEP MOISTURE...AS BOTH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH               
TAKES OVER TONIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SFC-700MB RH LESS THAN 35%) HOLD FIRM.                   
THUS...WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT STILL                 
LOOKS OK...HAVE TRENDED POPS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME                
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE 09Z SREF/12Z UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A                
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP. STILL NOT TALKING ABOUT A WHOLE                
LOT OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAIN IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. NO THREAT OF               
ANY THUNDER OWING TO LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FLAT               
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF               
CLOUD COVER. CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE               
SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE...WHILE MAY                
VERY WELL SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER                     
SUBSIDENCE. WILL HOLD NUMBERS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF                
RATHER COOL READINGS (LOWER 40S...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 30S) FAR NORTH             
GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN WITH FLOW DECOUPLING AND RESIDUAL               
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
LONG TERM...RECENT PATTERN OF TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND              
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN BETWEEN               
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK...AS                    
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST...ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN                  
RESPONSE. THIS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO EVEN REACH LOWER MI UNTIL               
LATER MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN WILL PROBABLY HANG ALONG THE SOUTHERN              
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL             
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE                  
FORECAST WILL BASICALLY DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT FOR                  
RAIN WILL REACH.                                                                
SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION TO BE GOING SOUTHWEST/                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START SUNDAY MORNING ALONG                        
FRONTOGENETICALLY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI (ACTUAL WARM FRONT              
WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/CENTRAL IN). AXIS OF                   
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS WELL...NAM TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE/QPF FARTHER NORTH                    
ALTHOUGH ITS PRESUMED MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH                 
(AS DOES ITS WARM FRONTAL POSITION). BUT RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY                
JUMP ONTO ONE SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION GIVEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY                   
HAPPENING UPSTREAM TODAY...WILL SIMPLY EXPAND CURRENT RAIN CHANCES              
NORTH AND EAST A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A BIGGER MARGIN OF ERROR.                     
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE MORE OF A                
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION                
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WARM                      
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WI.                                                     
MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID               
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG                  
WITH SOME ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS              
SOUTH OF M-72 TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION REMAINS SOUTH                
OF THE STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. "ERIN" GETTING                 
SCOOPED UP AND INVOLVED WITH HAPPENINGS ALONG THE WARM FRONT                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THIS DOES                
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR NORTHERN MI.                                      
EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HEIGHT FALLS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT                
THE WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE IN THE LATER TUESDAY TIME FRAME...                
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THIS PROGRESSION...THOUGH               
IF THE WARM FRONT TIMING IS SLOW AREAS FARTHER NORTH COULD END UP               
BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND THAT IS A CONCERN THAT WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY                
AND BEYOND...ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW               
DOWN AND PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP               
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE END UP WITH...             
ASSUMING FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS LOWER MI/WI...WE COULD BE              
STARING AT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT                     
EXACTLY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES                
THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY...ACTUALLY THINK THE OPPOSITE MAY BE A                  
BETTER WAY TO GO AND WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION                   
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST              
CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE A                 
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION                      
COVERAGE EACH DAY.                                                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
948 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM                        
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BECOMING SMALLER               
WIDTH WISE...NOW MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.                   
HOWEVER...THIS CONCENTRATED ZONE NOW CONSISTS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850MB               
NOTED ON THE BLUE RIVER WISCONSIN PROFILER (NOW 30-35KT) IMPINGING              
ON THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF HEAT AND                   
MOISTURE EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUSTAIN THE                    
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO                    
HOME...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE MENOMINEE AREA              
BETWEEN 20-24Z...THE CWA REMAINS DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                   
CROSSING. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL                   
FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AIDING IN THE                   
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SW.                                                      
WITH THE SHOWERS DRYING UP FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EAST-CENTRAL                    
WI...THERE IS CONCERN THAT PCPN MAY BE ENTIRELY DONE NOW MENOMINEE              
COUNTY (THE ONLY PLACE WITH -SHRA MENTION IN THE CWA). TWO THINGS               
COULD BE OCCURRING THAT IS CAUSING THE DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS:                  
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI IS                 
INHIBITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS NORTHERN WI AND/OR THE                    
COMBINATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL JET                
CIRCULATIONS ARE DRIVING DRIER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD. 20Z TAMDAR                    
SOUNDING FROM CHIPPEWA COUNTY AIRPORT SHOWED A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE            
600-800MB LAYER (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C OR MORE). GIVEN THAT               
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CONFLUENT WITH HEIGHTS                
RISING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING IN NEW                         
ENGLAND...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE SHOWERS NORTHWARD. THE               
18Z GFS CONCURS WITH THIS IDEA...AND THUS HAVE DECIDED TO                       
REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE FCST.                                                   
GOING TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH SINCE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUT               
EAST AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER THERE...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP TEMPS A            
FEW MORE DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.25 INCH                 
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...SUGGESTING LOWS SHOULD NOT GET AS COLD.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE PAC NW A RDG              
FROM THE PLAINS TO SASK AND A TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN WI TO NRN IA WAS MOVING E. AT THE                     
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING              
THROUGH CNTRL IA TO ERN MO. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF TH 250-300 JET AND 850-700 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED            
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM ERN MN            
THROUGH THE S 2/3 OF WI. TSRA WERE CONFINED TO A BAND CLOSER TO THE             
FRONT...FROM SRN MN INTO SW WI AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED MID               
HIGH CLOUDS HAD THINNED OUT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
REMAINING NEAR THE WI BORDER. RADARS ALSO SHOWED RETURNS CREEPING               
FROM WI CLOSER TO THE BORDER BUT WITH SFC -RA REPORTS LAGGING                   
FARTHER TO THE S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL 850-650 MB DRY            
LAYER PER 18Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND EARLIER KRHI SOUNDING.                  
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY E OR ESE SHIFT             
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL                 
PROGRESS OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WILL             
BE MARGINAL. SO...LOWER END POPS WERE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SRN                
HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                                       
ALTHOUGH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED            
TO LAST NIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INLAND TEMPS            
TO DROP INTO THE 40S. SIMILARLY...MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN                 
SUNDAY AND DECENT SUNSHINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C SUPPORTS                 
MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S.                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
STUBBORN PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE BY EARLY IN THE WORK                   
WEEK...NEVERTHELESS SFC HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHUNT              
THE BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES                
SOUTH WITH IT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS            
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER                
WEST CENTRAL CANADA TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM            
00Z TUE TO 00Z WED. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES INTO                 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY TUE MORNING WARRANTS CONTINUED MENTION              
OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
ENERGY COULD AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY                
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO LEND TO THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE              
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE            
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOST MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD              
BE OVER THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AREA.                                         
LOOKING AT SOME PARAMETERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON               
THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z             
WED...0-6 BULK SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR                
INCREASES FROM 30-35 KT TO THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...0-2 SHEAR                
TOPS OUT AROUND 30-40 KT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. KIMT            
HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CLOCKWISE SPIN ALONG WITH AN LCL AROUND 1000             
FT AT 21Z TUE. MUCAPES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...PEAKING AROUND 2200 J/KG            
AT KIWD IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING/CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEVERMIND IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE                   
WEST/WEST CENTRAL...DID NOT INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD               
BUT MENTIONED IN HWO.                                                           
MODELS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME                  
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH...AND DIGGING UP A LOW FROM THE PLAINS              
AND EJECTING IT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDIGING OVER               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY DAY 7. SO...GIVEN THE DECENT                          
AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OPEN HOUSE...SCHEDULED              
FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO...PROVIDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                 
HOLDING ON FROM HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK             
FOR A GENERAL EAST WIND...WITH INCREASING SPEED ON SUNDAY AS THE                
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO             
SRN WI.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E AND SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
HIGH PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY AND             
A LOW PRES TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN MN AND SRN WI. WINDS INTO THE                
15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDSPEED OVER THE FAR             
WRN LAKE FAVORED BY PRES UPSTREAM UPSTREAM PRES FALLS AND TERRAIN               
EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES HAVE WON OUT...AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR                  
MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN AND CTRL MN. AS LATEST RUC                
MODEL RUNS COME IN...BETTER ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES COME IN FOR                 
CONVECTION...WITH -6 TO -8 VALUES PROJECTED THROUGH 09Z OVER SOUTH              
CENTRAL MN. ALSO LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PEGGED IN THAT                  
AREA...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SATURATED GROUND REMAINS A                
PRIMARY CONCERN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE AREA HAS ONLY BEEN DEALING WITH VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS SINCE                
ABOUT MID MORNING...WHICH IS CERTAINLY A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW               
DAYS. FOG AND OVERCAST STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN THE MAJOR PROBLEM                  
TODAY...KEEPING QUITE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA              
AGAIN TODAY. THE OVERCAST DECK HAS ALSO HELPED TO REDUCE SEVERE                 
POSSIBILITIES TODAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...WHICH ARE STARTING              
TO SEE A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK...SEEING THE ONLY POTENTIAL.                  
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH A                 
LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...                     
SOMETHING THAT IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP.              
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AS                  
CONTINUED SATURATION AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT LEADS TO A CONTINUED              
THREAT OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.                                                 
THANKFULLY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAJOR FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL               
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL                    
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE AREA                 
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH ALONG               
THE IOWA BORDER...HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP /AND                
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS                      
CERTAINLY NOT ZERO/ IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF                   
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.                                                                
LATE TOMORROW...ANOTHER TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...AS A BOUNDARY                   
PARKS ITSELF...ONCE AGAIN...VERY NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.                
THIS WILL PLACE THE FLOODED AREAS IN THE PRIME REGION TO RECEIVE                
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                             
FOR THE WEEKEND...WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A DRY SPELL...AS MODELS                  
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SURFACE HIGH SLIDING                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.                
MONDAY MAY FEATURE SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE GET                 
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING              
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO                
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../FOR 00Z TAFS/                                                      
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE CIGS AND VIS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE               
PATTERN FROM PAST DAYS. AREA OF IFR AND LOWER CIGS WITH PERIODIC                
IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TAF                    
SITES. WISCONSIN SITES ARE AT THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW BUT                   
EXPECT IFR TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING. ALSO A CONCERN FOR SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS                 
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN COVER GAGE IS LOW BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS KAXN AND KSTC AS WELL AS KRWF. EXPECT 2                  
DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP. KMSP/KRNH/KEAU MAY                
FALL BETWEEN THESE AREAS BUT HAVE RETAINED TEMPO SHOWERS LATER                  
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOG TO                
DEVELOP. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THE SFC PATTERN                  
WILL SHIFT A BIT AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED TREND ...PERHAPS                       
OPTIMISTICALLY...OF WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY STARTING TUESDAY                    
MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY HELP DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...IF ONLY                  
BRIEFLY...IMPROVING CIGS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT                
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN              
WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING LOW CIGS IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO                
WATCH CLOSELY. SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. ..MDB..                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-             
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-               
     RENVILLE-RICE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN COUNTY(IES).                   
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/MDB/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
808 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIN CONTINUE TO MOVE              
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO SOUTHEASTERN           
MISSOURI WITH JUST A FEW SHRA DEVELOPING SPORADICALLY IN ITS WAKE               
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. MID LEVEL NVA AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME                  
HEATING SHOULD SQUASH ANY LINGERING SHRA BY 9PM. WHILE THIS                     
DISTURBANCE IS IN ITS SWAN SONG FOR OUR AREA...ATTENTION HAS NOW                
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS KS AND NEB...WHERE VIGOROUS                     
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM.                                                
THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI IS VERY                
UNSTABLE. 00Z LAPS DATA INDICATES SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH              
LIS AROUND -8C. WHILE INSTABILITY IS HIGH...THERE IS A DECENT CAP               
ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND NW MO. LAPS DATA INDICATES CIN BETWEEN 50                 
AND 100 J/KG AND THE 00Z KTOP SOUNDING SUPPORTS THESE VALUES.                   
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND HAVE QUICKLY                
MOVED AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE SPLITTING INTO NO LESS THAN THREE                  
DISTINCT COMPLEXES. THE COMPLEX OF INTEREST FOR OUR NECK OF THE                 
WOODS TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF MANHATTAN                
KS.                                                                             
TO THIS POINT...CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN REASONABLY FOLLOWING               
PROGGED CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE NAM...GFS AND RUC. A SOUTHEAST                 
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE COMPLEX FEEDS              
ON HIGH SBCAPE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THIS COMPLEX WILL                   
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INTO               
LESS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LITTLE CHANGE IN CIN IS                        
EXPECTED AND INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES.               
AT LEAST SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD RESULT.                              
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR              
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEADING TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THE GFS...               
NAM AND RUC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VEERING CORIFIDI VECTOR PROFILE.             
BY THIS TIME A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED...WITH A                     
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED FROM OKLAHOMA                  
INTO SOUTHERN KS. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD TURN MORE               
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN                    
CHANCE ACROSS EXTREME SE KS AND WESTERN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL                 
REASSESS THE SITUATION WITH INCOMING 00Z RUC/NAM WRF OUTPUT AND                 
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.                                                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FOG                   
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. PESKY CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED THE                
OZARKS MUCH OF TODAY NOW WELL EAST OF THE JLN AND SGF TERMINALS.                
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND JUST A FEW CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT              
SEVERAL HOURS. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS               
AOA 7KTS ALL NIGHT TONIGHT...AND GIVEN CURRENT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT            
I HAVE NO REASON TO ARGUE. NEVERTHELESS...IF TEMPERATURES DO                    
APPROACH THEIR CROSSOVER VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S...PATCHY GROUND FOG            
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION 6SM BR                    
OVERNIGHT AND WILL PERUSE THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS TO ADJUST WITH 06Z            
TAF PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEHAVIOR OF BLOSSOMING                    
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEB/KS. AT THIS POINT AN INFLUX OF CIRRUS               
APPEARS TO THE BE MAIN SENSIBLE WX ISSUE FOR THE TAF SITES...BUT                
WILL MONITOR SAT AND RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF DEVIANT MOVEMENT                    
MANIFESTS ITSELF.                                                               
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY                    
TRAVERSING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE BACK SIDE OF               
THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE SHARP WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN ITS                    
WAKE...AND IT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING.             
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE ASSOCIATED                
TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                            
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN EXIT TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENCE            
IS OVERTAKING THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND GIVING A SHARP END TO THE                
PRECIPITATION. HAD TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE RAINY                 
SECTOR OF THE CWA BUT WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY.            
A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH THE NEW FOUND             
SURFACE MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MORE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE             
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT              
TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED...PREVENTING ANY MAJOR FOG FORMATION.              
HOWEVER...A SHARP DROP IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARD MORNING COULD LEAD TO              
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT.                     
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID 90S IN THE             
ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 IN              
THE WESTERN CWA WHICH SHOULD BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100 PLUS               
DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF HEAT            
ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT. LITTLE CHANGES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TUESDAY               
AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT.                     
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                            
BY FRIDAY EVENING THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY               
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TRAIN OF MID LEVEL WEAKNESSES                  
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TO SHIFT THEIR                      
COLLECTIVE TRACKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO            
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS                
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO SURFACE MOISTURE AND OVERALL                    
INSTABILITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                          
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CWA. AT                 
PRESENT...SHEAR APPEARS MODEST AT BEST BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN                 
FUTURE SHIFTS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION               
AND CLOUDS WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT LOW               
90S WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER 80S AFTER THE                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 500 HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE AGAIN AFTER THIS WAVE            
EXITS THE AREA AND IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER SATURDAY.                    
BARJENBRUCH                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1220 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.                           
REMNANT WAVE OF WHAT WAS ONCE TS ERIN CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE INTO                
THE REGION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WE ARE              
LOSING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ALOFT...HOWEVER...WAT VAP IMAGERY AND              
RUC INITIALIZATIONS OF WIND AND VORTICITY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A                 
WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR OR JUST TO THE                 
WEST OF THE MO/KS BORDER. EXTRAPOLATING RECENT TRENDS...THIS WAVE               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE ENE AND GRADUALLY OPEN AS ANOTHER                
POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.                   
THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE              
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 925/850MB WINDS OF                 
25-30KTS...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT               
BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND THE RUC INDICATE THAT A 40KT LLJ IS                        
IMMINENT...RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN INFLUX              
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BANDS OF SHRA AND A FEW              
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO EMANATE FROM THE CENTRAL                         
CIRCULATION THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD               
RAINFALL CENTERING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.                  
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS SITUATION IS MARGINAL AT BEST.                 
THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN              
CWA THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN ONLY SPORADICLY                  
AFFECTED BY CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF                 
THE CWA...EARLIER RAINFALL HAS QUELLED TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED                 
SFC BASED CAPE AND LI. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN               
IN PLACE AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A               
WARM CORE SYSTEM...AND PWS ARE NEAR TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL                 
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TONIGHT. HAIL WILL BE NEARLY NON                     
EXISTENT...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST.                  
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF TORNADOES AS SFC BASED               
ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY TONIGHT.                                      
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WELL POSITIONED AND WILL CONTINUE AS                    
ADVERTISED. AN UPDATE TO HOURLY GRIDS IS FORTHCOMING...OTHERWISE                
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.                                          
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE             
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS NOT HANDLING             
THE REMNANTS WELL AT ALL.                                                       
CURRENTLY...LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY            
OF PONCA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SHOWING A             
MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL               
CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE HAD ALMOST             
6/10THS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN TEN MINUTES FROM ONE OF THESE                 
CELLS AS IT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE. RUC CAPES THIS AFTERNOON                    
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BASICALLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING UP. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS 850MB PROFILER WINDS SHOWING             
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CLOUD              
COVERAGE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN. STARTING TO GET SOME              
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE                 
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                       
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH            
REMNANTS OF ERIN...DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE              
SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND TRACKS THE            
LOW INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH THE             
LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WITH 6 HOURLY QPF VALUES OVER AN INCH OVER             
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES ON MODEL               
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN DRY HERE FOR A LONG TIME AND THE              
RAIN IS A WELCOMED RELIEF...BUT GIVEN THE RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THESE              
STORMS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND              
OVERNIGHT. WE KEEP A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40KTS             
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.               
LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                             
TUESDAY ON...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.S. TUESDAY INTO THE WEEK. GET SOME DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE              
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY SET OFF SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE             
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 90S                  
THROUGH THE WEEK...THAT WILL GET OUR HEAT INDICES BACK UP TO AROUND             
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.                                                  
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...BANDS OF SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS              
THE REGION. BETTER COVERAGE HAS DEVELOP DURING THE PAST HOUR NEAR               
THE MO/KS BORDER AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW               
HOURS. THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES WILL EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL BOUTS              
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN MVFR/IFR CIG              
AND VIS. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY               
BUT DELIBERATELY SPREAD TO THE EAST AND CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED              
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                                      
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-068>070-           
     078>081-088>095-101>104.                                                   
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
642 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION                                                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE             
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS NOT HANDLING             
THE REMNANTS WELL AT ALL.                                                       
CURRENTLY...LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY            
OF PONCA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SHOWING A             
MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL               
CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE HAD ALMOST             
6/10THS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN TEN MINUTES FROM ONE OF THESE                 
CELLS AS IT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE. RUC CAPES THIS AFTERNOON                    
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BASICALLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING UP. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS 850MB PROFILER WINDS SHOWING             
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CLOUD              
COVERAGE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN. STARTING TO GET SOME              
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE                 
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                       
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH            
REMNANTS OF ERIN...DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE              
SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND TRACKS THE            
LOW INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH THE             
LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WITH 6 HOURLY QPF VALUES OVER AN INCH OVER             
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES ON MODEL               
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN DRY HERE FOR A LONG TIME AND THE              
RAIN IS A WELCOMED RELIEF...BUT GIVEN THE RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THESE              
STORMS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND              
OVERNIGHT. WE KEEP A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40KTS             
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.               
LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                             
TUESDAY ON...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.S. TUESDAY INTO THE WEEK. GET SOME DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE              
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY SET OFF SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE             
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 90S                  
THROUGH THE WEEK...THAT WILL GET OUR HEAT INDICES BACK UP TO AROUND             
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.                                                  
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...REMNANT OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM               
ERIN CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE REGION. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE                
SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK AS WELL AS SW MO AND              
NW ARK. THIS ON AGAIN...OFF AGAIN SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY             
CONCERN FOR BOTH SGF AND JLN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THROUGH THE                
EVENING HOURS...OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR WILL OCCUR AS THE              
BANDS OF SHRA DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE NNE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A LARGER BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP NEAR              
SW MO TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS. WILL                 
AMEND THE TAFS AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTY                
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
BANDS OF SHRA. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO                 
OSAGE BEACH FROM 9 PM THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY.                                     
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE             
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS NOT HANDLING             
THE REMNANTS WELL AT ALL.                                                       
CURRENTLY...LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY            
OF PONCA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SHOWING A             
MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL               
CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE HAD ALMOST             
6/10THS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN TEN MINUTES FROM ONE OF THESE                 
CELLS AS IT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE. RUC CAPES THIS AFTERNOON                    
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BASICALLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING UP. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS 850MB PROFILER WINDS SHOWING             
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CLOUD              
COVERAGE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN. STARTING TO GET SOME              
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE                 
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                       
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH            
REMNANTS OF ERIN...DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE              
SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND TRACKS THE            
LOW INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH THE             
LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WITH 6 HOURLY QPF VALUES OVER AN INCH OVER             
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES ON MODEL               
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN DRY HERE FOR A LONG TIME AND THE              
RAIN IS A WELCOMED RELIEF...BUT GIVEN THE RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THESE              
STORMS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND              
OVERNIGHT. WE KEEP A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40KTS             
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.               
LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                             
TUESDAY ON...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.S. TUESDAY INTO THE WEEK. GET SOME DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE              
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY SET OFF SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE             
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 90S                  
THROUGH THE WEEK...THAT WILL GET OUR HEAT INDICES BACK UP TO AROUND             
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.                                                  
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AT 1715Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THE SPRINGFIELD             
AIRPORT.  KSGF WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF                 
MODERATE RAIN BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER.  WILL ALSO MONITOR                  
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING.             
THIS FEATURE IS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN...AND            
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.  LOWERING             
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WOULD BE EXPECTED IF THIS CIRCULATION                 
TRACKS TOWARD THE SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT.  THE JOPLIN SITE WILL ALSO               
NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA OF RAIN CLOSELY...HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION             
COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF JOPLIN WITH TIME.                                          
PILOTS CAN ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS                   
EVENING.  15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO                 
OSAGE BEACH FROM 9 PM THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY.                                     
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
936 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...                                          
FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...BUT HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO                      
FORECAST...MAINLY TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST...BUT NO BIG CHANGES.           
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY. UPPER WAVE IS                     
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST IN DAKOTAS...BUT ANOTHER NICE WAVE IS                   
CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SOME CLOUDS                     
ALREADY PUSHING INTO WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND IN THE                 
SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. BUF-KIT AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING                
GOOD LINKAGE AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS IN LOW LEVELS TODAY SO                 
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.                 
RUC AND NAM SHOWING DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO 20S IN WESTERN                      
ZONES...30S WORKING FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND LOWER 40S               
FAR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY                  
VALUES THEN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. ONE PROBLEM COULD BE CLOUDS                   
MOVING INTO AREA WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT...BUT                    
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALREADY AHEAD OF NAM FORECAST. DEWPOINTS ALSO              
LOWER THAN CURRENT NAM FORECAST. WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...LIKE CURRENT LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES...AND HAVE LEFT                
ALONE EXCEPT TO EXPAND A BIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO               
SEE A PICK UP IN WINDS WITH THE WAVE IN WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON. RASCH                                                                
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE               
EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT MAKE ANY               
MAJOR CHANGES. AGAIN...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE               
FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF               
THE WEEK. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE NORM THROUGH THE                    
PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MOISTURE                 
STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING BUT A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE                   
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A               
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. DID MAKE A                 
CHANGE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE FRONT AND LOWERED                  
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RIDGING                   
BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A                   
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.  HOOLEY                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE THIS MORNING...                      
PARTICULARLY FROM SHR TO MLS...WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS BY                
MIDDAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES WELL MIXED. LOCAL MVFR IN SMOKE IS                
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL                 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH              
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS FROM 18-03Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS IS                      
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. JKL                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 079 055/080 052/079 053/079 053/081 055/088 058/088                         
    0/N 20/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    00/U                            
LVM 077 050/078 042/075 042/072 042/080 047/085 048/085                         
    2/T 20/N    02/T    22/T    20/B    00/B    00/U                            
HDN 082 056/083 055/084 057/082 055/086 056/092 058/092                         
    0/N 20/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    00/U                            
MLS 079 054/080 053/082 055/080 055/083 055/086 059/086                         
    0/N 20/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    00/U                            
4BQ 082 054/082 052/084 057/080 056/082 055/088 060/088                         
    0/N 20/B    02/T    22/T    20/B    00/U    00/U                            
BHK 078 052/079 051/080 052/078 052/080 052/086 055/086                         
    0/N 20/B    02/T    22/T    20/B    00/U    00/U                            
SHR 081 050/081 049/083 052/082 050/082 050/090 053/090                         
    1/K 20/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    00/U                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR                 
      ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.                                                  
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
853 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT A DRY AND               
GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT                
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. NO OTHER CHANGES                 
MADE AT THIS TIME.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF A FAIRLY QUIET FIRST 12 HOURS IS                
ANTICIPATED AS AN UNLIMITED CEILING LOOKS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH SOME                
PATCHY FOG MAY DROP VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4 MILES LATE TONIGHT INTO                
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL                 
THEN PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH OR               
NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AN ISOLATED CHANCE            
FOR SOME LATE MORNING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST BUT FEEL               
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. AN                     
ADDITIONAL CHANCE MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT               
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN                
DRY.                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE                
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                                                       
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER COULD BE THE FOCUS OF             
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IN NORTHERN CWA AND MAY SAG JUST                
SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY                  
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THE RUC DOES              
NOT SEEM TO BE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH               
THE NAM BEING A BIT CLOSER TO REALITY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS                
CONCERNED...BUT WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. AFTER 12 HOURS                         
HOWEVER...THE NAM LOSES MUCH OF ITS CREDIBILITY AND THE GFS LOOKS               
LIKE IT GENERALLY DOES A BETTER JOB.                                            
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST               
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS TROUGH              
MAY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY               
SHOW THAT THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
AFFECT US. ONE MINOR WORRY IS THAT THE FAR NORTH MAY BE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THE  LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A MODEST AND WANING UPPER               
LEVEL JET. BUT WORKING AGAINST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY               
DRY LAYER NEAR 850 MB WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG            
IN THIS REGION. I WILL ULTIMATELY GO DRY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY            
MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM PUTS QPF OVER THE CWA DURING THIS            
TIME PERIOD...BUT LOOKS STRANGE AS IF THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK ISSUES.                                                                
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY             
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING IN AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AS A LOW LEVEL              
JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING. THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR              
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH             
THIS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. I WILL LEAN TOWARD KEEPING             
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE IN FOR THIS PERIOD              
ALREADY...BUT MAY BUMP UP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR                   
EAST...CLOSER TO WHERE AN MCS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.                        
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS                
TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  OVERALL                
SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS WE END UP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF               
THE WESTERLIES WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA               
AND THEN STALLING OUT...AS EAST/WEST FRONT LIES PARALLEL TO UPPER               
FLOW. ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
DIFFICULT AS SURFACE FRONT LOCATION NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT AND MAY            
BE INFLUENCED BY ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALSO              
TOUGH TO TELL WHEN ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE             
PLAINS. DOES APPEAR THAT GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES            
A COUPLE OF TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN PRETTY HIGH BY               
MID WEEK SO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. BY NEXT WEEKEND               
THE FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...AS RIDGE TO THE WEST               
AMPLIFIES...TO KEEP IT DRY HERE AND WILL GO ALONG WITH SCENARIO FOR             
THE TIME BEING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF A FAIRLY QUIET FIRST 12 HOURS IS               
ANTICIPATED AS AN UNLIMITED CEILING LOOKS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH SOME                
PATCHY FOG MAY DROP VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4 MILES LATE TONIGHT INTO                
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL                 
THEN PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH OR               
NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AN ISOLATED CHANCE            
FOR SOME LATE MORNING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST BUT FEEL               
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. AN                     
ADDITIONAL CHANCE MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT               
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN                
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE                
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                                                       
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER COULD BE THE FOCUS OF             
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IN NORTHERN CWA AND MAY SAG JUST                
SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY                  
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THE RUC DOES              
NOT SEEM TO BE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH               
THE NAM BEING A BIT CLOSER TO REALITY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS                
CONCERNED...BUT WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. AFTER 12 HOURS                         
HOWEVER...THE NAM LOSES MUCH OF ITS CREDIBILITY AND THE GFS LOOKS               
LIKE IT GENERALLY DOES A BETTER JOB.                                            
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST               
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS TROUGH              
MAY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY               
SHOW THAT THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
AFFECT US. ONE MINOR WORRY IS THAT THE FAR NORTH MAY BE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THE  LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A MODEST AND WANING UPPER               
LEVEL JET. BUT WORKING AGAINST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY               
DRY LAYER NEAR 850 MB WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG            
IN THIS REGION. I WILL ULTIMATELY GO DRY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY            
MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM PUTS QPF OVER THE CWA DURING THIS            
TIME PERIOD...BUT LOOKS STRANGE AS IF THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK ISSUES.                                                                
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY             
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING IN AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AS A LOW LEVEL              
JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING. THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR              
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH             
THIS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. I WILL LEAN TOWARD KEEPING             
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE IN FOR THIS PERIOD              
ALREADY...BUT MAY BUMP UP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR                   
EAST...CLOSER TO WHERE AN MCS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.                        
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS                
TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  OVERALL                
SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS WE END UP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF               
THE WESTERLIES WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA               
AND THEN STALLING OUT...AS EAST/WEST FRONT LIES PARALLEL TO UPPER               
FLOW. ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
DIFFICULT AS SURFACE FRONT LOCATION NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT AND MAY            
BE INFLUENCED BY ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALSO              
TOUGH TO TELL WHEN ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE             
PLAINS. DOES APPEAR THAT GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES            
A COUPLE OF TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN PRETTY HIGH BY               
MID WEEK SO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. BY NEXT WEEKEND               
THE FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...AS RIDGE TO THE WEST               
AMPLIFIES...TO KEEP IT DRY HERE AND WILL GO ALONG WITH SCENARIO FOR             
THE TIME BEING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
308 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS TIMING OF AND LOCATION OF             
CONVECTION. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING STILL SHOWED A GOOD              
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE                
FROM PART OF THE SWRN U.S. AND WEST TX UP INTO ERN NE...WRN IA...               
SD AND MN. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED A FRONT LOCATED              
FROM NERN IA NWWD BACK TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN MN/NWRN IA THEN                
SEWD INTO NRN NE...THEN BACK NWWD INTO ERN MT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY                
WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WATER VAPOR                 
LOOP SHOWED MAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERN ACROSS              
OK...A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN MO MOVING NEWD AND A SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS OVER SWRN MN/NWRN IA/SERN SD/NERN NE              
MOVING EWD ACROSS SD AND NE. A MOIST PLUME WAS ALSO INCREASING IN               
COVERAGE AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW PUSHING INTO                
THE ROCKIES. 20Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCEMENT              
TO CLOUDS ALONG FRONT OVER NERN NE. LITTLE OR NO CAP WAS INDICATED              
BY LATEST RUC MEAN LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.                                 
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL                
PROBABLY DIE OUT THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS                
GOING AFTER 06Z ACROSS WRN IA FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WITH BORDERING                
OFFICES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW                    
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY COMMON THE                  
PAST FEW WEEKS. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S                  
WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION A CHANCE OF               
PCPN LATE TONIGHT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH DISTURBANCE NOW OUT                 
OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT IT IS MOVING QUICKLY.                                    
MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE WAVE OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD               
SRN ALTA BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH MAIN PUNCH OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS               
THE DKTS. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD. 12Z GFS                   
SHOWED VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPS OVER OUR AREA DURING THE DAY (MAINLY              
12C TO 15C) BUT ALSO A LOT OF 700 MB MOISTURE (WITH DEWPOINTS UP                
TO 12 BY LATE AFTN) SO SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEMED REASONABLE. BULK                
SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER INCREASES TO 30-45 KTS...AND SURFACE                  
BASED CAPE GET UP TO OVER 3000 J/KG. INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FOR                
THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT 90 TO               
95 CENTRAL AND SOUTH...BUT ONLY UPPER 80S FAR NORTH. CLOUD COVER                
WILL BE A BIG PLAYER AS TO HOW WARM IT GETS ON MONDAY.                          
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH FAIRLY FAST               
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NORTH               
AND SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO                 
CHANCE RANGE. MIGHT BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THINGS BETTER IN FUTURE                
FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER. TIMING IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC...                 
BUT THE TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY                
NIGHT SEEM POTENTIALLY BUSY WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TUESDAYS                 
HIGHS SHOULD BE 90 TO 95...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO                   
LOWER 90S AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                 
LEFT NEXT WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE FOLLOWING TAF SITES...KOFK/KOMA/KLNK                                    
CONTINUED INTRUSION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA                  
FROM LEFT OVER REMNANTS OF ERIN...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD             
CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA                     
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER NORTH ALONG NE/SD BORDER...                
FAIRLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...            
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO MN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL AROUND THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME                
WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION APPEARS TO BE LIKELY DUE TO                
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DECREASED WIND SPEEDS...WHICH COULD                
LOWER CEILINGS/ VISIBILITIES TO LIFR/LFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF                 
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MILLER                                                             
AVIATINO...REESE                                                                
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
223 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE               
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                                                       
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER COULD BE THE FOCUS OF             
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IN NORTHERN CWA AND MAY SAG JUST                
SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY                  
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THE RUC DOES              
NOT SEEM TO BE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH               
THE NAM BEING A BIT CLOSER TO REALITY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS                
CONCERNED...BUT WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. AFTER 12 HOURS                         
HOWEVER...THE NAM LOSES MUCH OF ITS CREDIBILITY AND THE GFS LOOKS               
LIKE IT GENERALLY DOES A BETTER JOB.                                            
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST               
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS TROUGH              
MAY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY               
SHOW THAT THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
AFFECT US. ONE MINOR WORRY IS THAT THE FAR NORTH MAY BE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THE  LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A MODEST AND WANING UPPER               
LEVEL JET. BUT WORKING AGAINST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY               
DRY LAYER NEAR 850 MB WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG            
IN THIS REGION. I WILL ULTIMATELY GO DRY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY            
MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM PUTS QPF OVER THE CWA DURING THIS            
TIME PERIOD...BUT LOOKS STRANGE AS IF THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK ISSUES.                                                                
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY             
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING IN AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AS A LOW LEVEL              
JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING. THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR              
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH             
THIS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. I WILL LEAN TOWARD KEEPING             
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE IN FOR THIS PERIOD              
ALREADY...BUT MAY BUMP UP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR                   
EAST...CLOSER TO WHERE AN MCS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS               
TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  OVERALL                
SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS WE END UP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF               
THE WESTERLIES WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA               
AND THEN STALLING OUT...AS EAST/WEST FRONT LIES PARALLEL TO UPPER               
FLOW. ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
DIFFICULT AS SURFACE FRONT LOCATION NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT AND MAY            
BE INFLUENCED BY ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALSO              
TOUGH TO TELL WHEN ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE             
PLAINS. DOES APPEAR THAT GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES            
A COUPLE OF TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN PRETTY HIGH BY               
MID WEEK SO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. BY NEXT WEEKEND               
THE FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...AS RIDGE TO THE WEST               
AMPLIFIES...TO KEEP IT DRY HERE AND WILL GO ALONG WITH SCENARIO FOR             
THE TIME BEING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE                  
FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH              
A BOUNDARY WHICH LIES WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.              
POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL BROKEN LAYER COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NAM                    
SUGGESTS A DECREASE IN VISIBLITY...BUT DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT TO                
SUPPORT THIS AND THE NAM HAS RECENTLY BEEN OVERFORECASTING                      
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN/EWALD                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
233 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS               
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THERE WILL                
BE A SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER LEADING TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. TUESDAY WILL THEN SERVE AS A                  
TRANSITION DAY AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR              
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE CAROLIANS WILL               
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN               
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT A RIBBON OF                  
MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM               
THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER SOUTHWARDS. THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NRN               
EDGE OF THE PCPN WILL RESULT IN A LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ACROSS              
THE IAG FRONTIER AND WRN SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A HIGH CONFIDENCE                
FORECAST WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.                                      
LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS AS OF 14Z WE HAVE DECIDED              
TO BRING THE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER A FEW HOURS            
EARLIER THAN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. THIS AREA OF RAIN ON RADAR              
COINCIDES WELL WITH THE AREA OF LIFT THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT TO FIND              
UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT H2 JET THAT IS ALIGNED FROM               
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND              
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. JET INDUCED LIFT FROM THE RR QUAD OF THE JET IS            
COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE THIS SWATH OF               
RAIN.                                                                           
HOW ARE THE MODELS HANDLING THIS? THUS FAR THE NAM/WRF AND GFS ARE              
VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE RAIN...BUT               
THE NAM/WRF APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE AT THIS TIME AND DOES NOT HAVE              
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN INTO PA. THE GFS               
DOES NOT HAVE THIS PROBLEM THROUGH ITS FIRST 6 HRS. THE SHORTER                 
RANGE RUC IS GROSSLY UNDER DONE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN                 
AND APPEARS TO HAVE BIG PROBLEMS ALL THE WAY OUT THROUGH ITS 12 HR              
FORECAST. BOIL THIS ALL DOWN AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MODEL OF               
CHOICE...AS IT HAS BEEN WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL                  
DAYS. THE NAM/WRF IS JUST NOW COMING INTO LINE WITH IT.                         
GIVEN THE IR AND COMPOSITE RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE TO RELY                 
MORE ON THE GFS GUIDANCE WITH THIS RAIN EVENT. I WILL RAISE POPS                
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF BUFFALO SO THAT A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES                 
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE IAG FRONTIER TODAY WITH HIGH CHC POPS                  
FOUND OVER THE SRN TIER. THE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS              
EVENING FOR SITES NEAR THE BORDER.                                              
THIS FORECAST WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN OUR SURROUNDING               
WFO`S...BUT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL                        
PREDICTION CENTER (HPC) IN TERMS OF ACTUAL QPF.                                 
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHARP GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW                  
YORKS SOUTHERN TIER AND PA`S NRN TIER. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER PARTS              
OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES TO LOW CHC POPS TO ALLOW FOR               
A PASSING SHOWER...WHILE LIKELY POPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SRN                 
TIER. AGAIN...OUR POPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN SURROUNDING                  
WFO`S BUT WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF THE HPC QPF.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
THE STRONG H2 JET THAT WILL BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SWATH              
OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY PULL TO THE EAST AND SETTLE                  
FURTHER SOUTH AS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL                  
HELP TO FURTHER SHUNT THE SWATH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANY                 
-SHRA OVER THE NEW YORKS SOUTHERN TIER ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING.                
MEANWHILE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER              
WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR                      
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
TEMPS MONDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H8 TEMPS OF 8               
TO 10 DEG C KEEPING MAX TEMPS FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE 60S (SRN                 
TIER) AND 70S. THE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SRN TIER WILL BE LARGELY                
DUE TO THE CLOUDIER SKY CONDITIONS.                                             
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW               
ENGLAND WHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GR                
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP RAINFREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY              
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW                 
CHC POPS FOR A -SHRA OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE THE RETURN FLOW               
AROUND THE HIGH COULD HELP TO USHER IN A SHOWER FROM THE SOUTH.                 
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MESH BETTER WITH WFO CLE POPS TO OUR WEST.               
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO SERVE AS A                 
TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE SUMMERY CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE LURKING                 
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MUCH WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID               
CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WESTERN PA...OHIO AND MICHIGAN AT THAT TIME               
WILL BE POISED TO ADVANCE OUR WAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
IN A NUTSHELL...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO               
FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER                
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM             
NEXT WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A BROAD...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF              
OF THE NATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH               
SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL LARGE-SCALE FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE OF A              
SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS WILL ACT TO PUMP INCREASINGLY WARMER            
AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES              
RISING FROM THE MID TEENS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO THE +17C TO             
+20C DEG C RANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS                  
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH            
EVEN SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS OF                 
RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THINGS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND              
CALL FOR HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE THURSDAY                   
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL A BIT ABOVE THE LATEST HPC             
AND MEX GUIDANCE.                                                               
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK...OUR AREA WILL BE            
SITUATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL              
BECOME ENTRENCHED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE WESTERN                   
ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY LYING JUST TO OUR                
NORTH. WITH THIS BOUNDARY IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY...A NUMBER                    
OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES/ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS EXPECTED TO WORK            
NORTHEAST ALONG IT...AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ALREADY IN               
PLACE OVER THE AREA...I AM PRETTY MUCH FORCED TO RETAIN LOW CHANCE              
POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD FROM CONTINUITY...EVEN THOUGH THE BULK             
OF THE TIME IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.                                                
THAT SAID...THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS MOST LIKELY TO BE              
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS            
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT                   
LAKES...FORCING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD...AND          
OUR AREA DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE THUS CUT POPS BACK BELOW             
THE CHANCE THRESHOLD FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY BUT HOT             
AND HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY...LIKELY THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE OF THE                
WEEK. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL FOLLOW WITH ANOTHER               
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER             
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ALONG A STALLED OUT-FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
OVER OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND              
WEST OF OUR TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KJHW AND            
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL             
BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN                
CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO              
LOW VFR IN STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY...TO VFR                 
CIRRUS/UNLIMITED CEILINGS FROM KROC NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FINGER                 
LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS FOR VSBYS...THOSE SHOULD              
GENERALLY BE VFR...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR                    
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY.                                            
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE STALLED-OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK                    
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT             
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...IT WILL LIKELY             
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                
AREA WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME                     
MVFR-LEVEL RESTRICTIONS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN QUEBEC                         
TONIGHT...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS                  
DRAPED FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO AND                      
PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN                
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. ON LAKE              
ONTARIO...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT                       
RANGE...RESULTING IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE                    
LAKESHORE BETWEEN THE NIAGARA RIVER AND IRONDEQUOIT BAY. WITH THESE             
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE                    
DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY EVENING...A                 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM MIDNIGHT              
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES             
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO                
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS                   
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWER AND                       
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                       
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY         
         FOR LOZ043.                                                            
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 PM EDT                
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RSH/SAGE                                                            
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJR                                                                 
AVIATION...JJR                                                                  
MARINE...JJR                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
125 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS                
THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH             
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTH FROM                  
VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING                    
TEMPORARY RELIEF.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD NOW COVERING ALL MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE               
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST RUC AND GFS FOR THAT             
MATTER SHOW A LITTLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST                 
RADAR LOOPS DO SHOW A FEW RETURNS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID            
LEVELS EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE                 
INHIBITING ACTIVITY. OTHER THAN A TWEAK TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO               
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE FROM 700 MB UP THROUGH AT LEAST 200            
MB WILL SIT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL                  
THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND               
SUBSEQUENT WARM DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUDS AND                         
PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BELOW 850                   
MB...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP A VERY                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                   
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL TRANSFER MOMENTUM INTO LOW LEVEL JETS                 
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE ONLY EFFECT FROM THESE 20-30               
KT LOW LEVEL JETS WILL BE WARM NIGHTS WITH 5-10 MPH SURFACE WINDS.              
BY WEDNESDAY...THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OPEN UP                
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT COOLING OF THE               
MID LEVELS WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ABLE TO DIVE SOUTH AROUND                
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 20 POPS AT THIS                 
TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT                 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY              
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH PUSHING A RATHER STRONG                 
VORT ACROSS NORTHERN NC WHICH DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE              
STATE. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE VORT AND FARTHER NORTH WITH              
THE FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO MHX...WE WILL FOLLOW THE                
NAM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
595 DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SAV TO START THE PD. THIS FEATURE                
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLIGHTLY                
BACK TO THE EAST WHILE REMAINING CENTERED OVER AL BY FRIDAY. THIS               
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABV CLIMO TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.               
OPERATIONAL GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE MORE SHARPLY THAN MOST ENSEMBLE                
RUNS SO MEX STRINGS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT.                                
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL FEATURES GIVEN THE            
FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN. PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS               
DEVELOPING SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACT TO IMPORT SOME LL AND MIDLVL            
MOISTURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS EXCEPT FOR AT NIGHT. SLGT               
CHANCE POPS THEN SEEM TO BE PLAUSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK             
AS PW VALUES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO BUT FORCING REMAINS QUITE             
WEAK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE WITH                   
CUMULUS CONGESTUS FORMING AROUND THE AREA. THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. GOOD                  
RADIATION AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR/IFR FOG AFTER 09Z. SEVERITY             
OF FOG WILL BE LEFT UP TO LATER TAFS. COULD ALSO SEE LIFR STRATUS               
AGAIN WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY                      
MORNING...WITH A MVFR CEILING ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE WITH GOOD LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST              
PERIOD.                                                                         
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                    
BUOY OBS SHOW ESE WINDS STILL A SOLID 15 KT...AS KLTX VWP INDICATES             
JETTING AROUND 20 KT AT 1000 FEET.  SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FT...WITH             
A 17 SEC ESE SWELL STARTING TO SHOW UP.                                         
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK...ALLOWING WINDS TO                
VEER TO SE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SEABREEZE-DOMINATED.  WILL               
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW THRESHOLDS...CAPPING SPEEDS AT 15 KT AND SEAS             
AT 4 FT.                                                                        
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH                
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS                 
WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE.                      
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BEACHES BETWEEN               
THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND 9 PM.                                                     
THE BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT TO MARINERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS               
IS LIKELY TO BE SWELL FROM HURRICANE DEAN. THE WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS              
NEARLY PERFECT IN SHOWING THE 17-18 SECOND FORERUNNER SWELLS                    
DEVELOPING YESTERDAY EVENING. IT NOW FORECASTS THE SWELL HEIGHT TO              
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT EVERY 10-12 SECONDS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CARRY A LOT OF ENERGY AND WILL MAKE               
BAR AND INLET CONDITIONS QUITE ROUGH...PARTICULARLY AROUND LOW                  
TIDE. SURFERS WILL ENJOY THE NICE SURF EXPECTED TUESDAY AND                     
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE ADDS A WIND CHOP TO THE                 
OCEAN.                                                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE TYPICAL OF AUGUST WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE             
WRN ATLANTIC AND A SWRLY FLOW LOCALLY. SERLY DEAN SWELL IS PROGGED              
TO BE ALL BUT GONE JUST BY THE START OF THE PD. GUIDANCE SHOWS A                
SECONDARY SWELL FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT THE GFS              
SEEMS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR N WITH THE SFC WAVE/LOW AT THIS POINT.             
REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE PD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SWRLY FLOW                 
CAPPED AT 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SHK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TRA                                                                
LONG TERM...BACON                                                               
AVIATION...HDL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1220 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. HIGH            
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH             
TUESDAY. WARM...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE              
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA                
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING TEMPORARY RELIEF.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD NOW COVERING ALL MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE               
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST RUC AND GFS FOR THAT             
MATTER SHOW A LITTLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST                 
RADAR LOOPS DO SHOW A FEW RETURNS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID            
LEVELS EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE                 
INHIBITING ACTIVITY. OTHER THAN A TWEAK TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO               
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE FROM 700 MB UP THROUGH AT LEAST 200            
MB WILL SIT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL                  
THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND               
SUBSEQUENT WARM DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUDS AND                         
PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BELOW 850                   
MB...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP A VERY                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                   
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL TRANSFER MOMENTUM INTO LOW LEVEL JETS                 
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE ONLY EFFECT FROM THESE 20-30               
KT LOW LEVEL JETS WILL BE WARM NIGHTS WITH 5-10 MPH SURFACE WINDS.              
BY WEDNESDAY...THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OPEN UP                
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT COOLING OF THE               
MID LEVELS WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ABLE TO DIVE SOUTH AROUND                
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 20 POPS AT THIS                 
TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT                 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY              
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH PUSHING A RATHER STRONG                 
VORT ACROSS NORTHERN NC WHICH DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE              
STATE. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE VORT AND FARTHER NORTH WITH              
THE FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO MHX...WE WILL FOLLOW THE                
NAM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
595 DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SAV TO START THE PD. THIS FEATURE                
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLIGHTLY                
BACK TO THE EAST WHILE REMAINING CENTERED OVER AL BY FRIDAY. THIS               
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABV CLIMO TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.               
OPERATIONAL GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE MORE SHARPLY THAN MOST ENSEMBLE                
RUNS SO MEX STRINGS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT.                                
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL FEATURES GIVEN THE            
FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN. PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS               
DEVELOPING SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACT TO IMPORT SOME LL AND MIDLVL            
MOISTURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS EXCEPT FOR AT NIGHT. SLGT               
CHANCE POPS THEN SEEM TO BE PLAUSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK             
AS PW VALUES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO BUT FORCING REMAINS QUITE             
WEAK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY...WITH VAD WIND PROFILE AND             
SKEW-T SHOWING MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AT MOST LEVELS BELOW               
500 MPH. SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT             
NO TEMPO OR MENTION AT THIS TIME. MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR FOG/STRATUS              
AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                    
BUOY OBS SHOW ESE WINDS STILL A SOLID 15 KT...AS KLTX VWP INDICATES             
JETTING AROUND 20 KT AT 1000 FEET.  SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FT...WITH             
A 17 SEC ESE SWELL STARTING TO SHOW UP.                                         
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK...ALLOWING WINDS TO                
VEER TO SE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SEABREEZE-DOMINATED.  WILL               
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW THRESHOLDS...CAPPING SPEEDS AT 15 KT AND SEAS             
AT 4 FT.                                                                        
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH                
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS                 
WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE.                      
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BEACHES BETWEEN               
THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND 9 PM.                                                     
THE BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT TO MARINERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS               
IS LIKELY TO BE SWELL FROM HURRICANE DEAN. THE WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS              
NEARLY PERFECT IN SHOWING THE 17-18 SECOND FORERUNNER SWELLS                    
DEVELOPING YESTERDAY EVENING. IT NOW FORECASTS THE SWELL HEIGHT TO              
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT EVERY 10-12 SECONDS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CARRY A LOT OF ENERGY AND WILL MAKE               
BAR AND INLET CONDITIONS QUITE ROUGH...PARTICULARLY AROUND LOW                  
TIDE. SURFERS WILL ENJOY THE NICE SURF EXPECTED TUESDAY AND                     
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE ADDS A WIND CHOP TO THE                 
OCEAN.                                                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE TYPICAL OF AUGUST WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE             
WRN ATLANTIC AND A SWRLY FLOW LOCALLY. SERLY DEAN SWELL IS PROGGED              
TO BE ALL BUT GONE JUST BY THE START OF THE PD. GUIDANCE SHOWS A                
SECONDARY SWELL FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT THE GFS              
SEEMS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR N WITH THE SFC WAVE/LOW AT THIS POINT.             
REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE PD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SWRLY FLOW                 
CAPPED AT 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SHK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TRA                                                                
LONG TERM...BACON                                                               
AVIATION...HDL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
201 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PCPN CHANCES THE CONCERN TONIGHT-TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART OUR                 
FCST AREA SPLIT IN-BETWEEN THE MAIN 500 MB LOW IN SASK AND THE                  
REAL JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED FROM NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. THUS               
THINK MOST SIGHTS VALLEY AND EAST INTO MN WILL MEASURE RAINFALL                 
TONIGHT (MAINLY THIS EVE) IT WILL NOT BE MUCH AND MORE SHOWERY                  
VERSUS THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK ALOFT (HOWEVER RUC                 
DOES SHOW -2 SHOWWALTERS THIS EVE).                                             
AT 18Z SFC MAP SHOWS TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF MOT-BIS LINE AND                    
MOVEMENT IS MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE SLOWER NAM VERSUS THE                    
FASTER GFS FROM 00Z AND 06Z RUNS EARLIER TODAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS               
MAIN VORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A VORT LOBE SOUTHEAST INTO                   
NW/WCNTRL ND ATTM. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING CORRECT...STUCK WITH NAM              
TIMING TONIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING VORT LOBE INTO ERN ND 00Z THE                  
VALLEY 00Z-02Z AND THEN BDE-BJI AREAS NR 06Z. TROUGH ITSELF IN THE              
PRESSURE FIELD WILL FOLLOW THIS TIME AS WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTING A              
BIG WIND SHIFT TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING                
FROM 850 MB. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS GO LIGHT SOUTH                   
BEHIND TROUGH...AND WITH DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE 50S OR AROUND 60                
TONIGHT COULD WELL SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM. BEST BET WILL BE IN THE               
RED RIVER VALLEY AS CLEARING MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AND DEW                
PTS REMAIN HIGH. FOG ALSO PSBL IN ERN CWA AS AIRMASS IS SATURATED               
AND THIS IS WHAT OCCURRED IN CNTRL MN MON AM.                                   
ON TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WINDS MIX UP TO                 
850 MB. 500 MB UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER CNTRL MANITOBA...WITH -16C                
500 MB TEMPS OVER NRN ND/NW MN. NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW                        
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 80 AND THIS LIKELY TO BE REACHED...AND                  
WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO MN                
COULD SEE ISOLD AFTN TSTM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED SOME IN GRIDDS TO                  
BLEND WITH FCSTS FROM DLH AND MPX. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR                  
WILL MOVE IN TUES OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                                      
WITH 850 MB TEMPS SHOWING LITTLE COOLING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY                   
WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH 80 OR SO.                                           
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)                                                            
A DRY/ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS                 
PERIOD. THERMAL FIELDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                        
INITIALLY...WITH SOME WARMING BY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING                  
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SOME PRECIP MAY             
BE NEXT MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/STRENGTH             
AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION. THEREFORE...WILL             
KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY WITH MOST SYSTEMS LATELY HAVING MOISTURE                  
TAPPED FROM STORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LARGE AREA OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH THIS              
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED                   
THUNDER MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT                
TSRA MENTION OUT OF GFK...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES CLOSE.               
FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES NEAR THE SFC               
TROUGH ONCE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY. IF CLEARING CAN DEVELOP               
NEAR THE TROUGH BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...THEN IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER SOUTHWEST             
SFC WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 15Z.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/DK                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
137 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.              
WARM...MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF                   
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. THUS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE...AND                 
THE LATEST RUC40 MODEL FOR THE NEAR TERM.                                       
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY INTO THE LOWER               
OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE               
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THIS AFTN. MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO              
INDICATE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACRS NE IL...NRN IN...SRN LOWER                          
MICHIGAN AND NRN OHIO. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST 925 MB-850 MB LOW                 
LVL CONVERGENCE/FORCING IS OCCURRING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED                  
TO LIFT SOME TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WIDESPREAD                     
SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ACRS OUR REGION THIS MORNING.               
FOR THIS AFTN...MODELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.                  
THIS DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH THE APCH OF AN UPR LVL S/WV FROM              
THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH HIGH                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE              
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND              
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE REMNANTS                
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS               
PERIOD. MORE ON THIS TOPIC WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM                  
SECTION.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO                 
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS LOWER 90S. THUS...HAVE              
LEFT PREVIOUS FCSTERS HIGHS IN TACT.                                            
FINALLY...SPC HAS THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE              
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE              
HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. IF THIS TRANSPIRES...IT WILL              
LIKELY BE FROM MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.                                     
NO UPDATE IS NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO                     
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST. WILL MONITOR                 
TEMPERATURES SINCE CVG HAS BEEN EASILY REACHING 90 SO WE MAY NEED               
TO BUMP UP THE FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES IN A LATER UPDATE.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS                 
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE BEST LOW LVL FORCING AND UPR DYNAMICS                 
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                          
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT               
TRACK AND POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR HIGH POPS            
EVEN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH              
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THUS...DESPITE            
THE REGION BEING IN A DROUGHT SITUATION...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON                 
DRY...HARD SOILS CAN STILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.                 
HENCE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.                        
THE REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.                   
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM                 
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE 10Z AND 15Z TIME FRAME. HAVE LEFT A CHC                
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS                
WILL DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL                  
FOR WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING                      
MECHANISM.                                                                      
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL                 
STILL BE A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.                              
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM DUE TO THE HUMID AIRMASS...MAINLY IN              
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE                
LOWER 80S NE TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS                 
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION                
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                     
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR FA              
ON THE EDGE OF BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN...AND WITH FA IN THE WARM                  
SECTOR...WILL TRY TO LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS WEDNESDAY                 
THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH                     
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA...LEADING TO A BETTER              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.                                           
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND            
ECMWF BUILDING RIDGE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA THROUGH LATE IN THE                
WEEK. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE              
OR TWO...PARTICULARLY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
FIRST 2 HOURS OF FORECAST ARE VFR. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING                 
RAPIDLY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING ALREADY NEAR DAY AND                
ILN. CMH AND LCK CAN ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH                       
TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES STARTING AT 20Z. CVG AND LUK CAN                    
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES                    
STARTING BY 23Z. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AS               
LOW AS IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY                
BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z. THOUGH DAY ILN CMH AND LCK WILL RETAIN MVFR                
CEILINGS...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z WITH VFR FORECAST              
AT CVG AND LUK                                                                  
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT                
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-                        
     077>082-088.                                                               
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT                
     FOR KYZ089>100.                                                            
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT                
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
648 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO                
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE                  
REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A WARM FRONT ACRS THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VLY WILL LIFT                 
SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WARM...MOIST ASCENT               
WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND              
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
BAND OF PCPN FROM SRN MN SE INTO NRN OHIO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE              
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF AND LATEST RUC40 MODELS FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST              
AS THEY ARE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PCPN BAND THE BEST. STILL LOOKS               
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN...ELEVATED IN NATURE...WILL JUST                  
SKIM OUR FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...WEAK EMBEDDED                   
S/WVS IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME MORE SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD                
REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE AFTN EXCEPT THE SW WHERE A SMALL                 
CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE FCST DUE               
TO AN APCHING S/WV AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL                
BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT...AND WILL REQUIRE SOME SHORT TERM                  
ADJUSTMENTS. FOR NOW...HAVE TAILORED HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S                   
NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION               
THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                                
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY               
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES WILL RIPPLE              
WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THIS BOUNDARY. TO ADD INSULT TO                  
INJURY...LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF             
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT               
INTO TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE FROM ERIN IS FCST TO GET DRAWN NE                   
INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...AND WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACRS THE REGION                
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE                     
     EMBEDDED S/WVS...AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF FRONTAL           
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND                           
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC IS                    
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA ON MONDAY IN              
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO                
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE                   
REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS              
TO HIGH CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN SLOWLY EXIT THE               
REGION. GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF HEAVY RAIN...HAVE PLACED THIS                     
WORDING IN THE FCST. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A MODERATE TO               
SEVERE DROUGHT...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES IN TERMS OF               
FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCHES ATTM. HOWEVER...IF WIDESPREAD PCPN                    
MATERIALIZES ON MONDAY...THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR                   
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 1 AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE                  
VALUES POTENTIALLY DECREASE FROM HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS                 
AND PCPN. MAV MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE                 
MET MOS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS. AGAIN...SHORT              
TERM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                   
AS A FINAL NOTE...SPC HAS THE SWRN PART OF OUR FCST AREA IN A                   
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY                    
DEPENDENT ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN GET AMIDST CLOUD                   
COVER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY               
BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL TEND                
TO KEEP OUR FA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY               
FLOW AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY KEEP               
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE              
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA. MODELS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL                   
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE              
OF PCPN BY SATURDAY.                                                            
AS HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA...WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A              
GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. 06Z AND 12Z                     
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND THUS WARMER THAN THE            
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL THEREFORE TREND                 
TEMPS A TAD COOLER THAN MOS THROUGH FRIDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
LARGE AREA OF -SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF A WARM FRNTL BNDRY EXTNDG FROM                
UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY SE INTO CNTRL/LOWER GRT LKS. WITH WELL DEFINED              
850 LLJ BACK ACRS IOWA/MINNESOTA HELPING TO INITIATE NEW                        
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT IN THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PROPAGATE SE ALONG WARM FRONT INTO LWR MICHIGAN/NRN PORTIONS OF INDIANA         
AND OHIO TODAY. THIS MAIN AREA OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED                    
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ACRS NRN OHIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE                 
FRNTL BNDRY ALL DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER AIR                 
WITHIN THE BNDRY LYR HANGING INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL              
BE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY AT KCVG AND KLUK...EXPECT MSTLY CLDY              
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PREDOMINANT AC DECK BTWN 10-15KFT.               
AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEINGS TO SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM                 
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN/EVNG HOURS AND WEAK MID LVL S/WV                  
PASS THRU REGION...EXPECT WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP.                        
BULK OF THE PCPN WILL AGAIN REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS               
TONIGHT....FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACRS REGION.                  
HAVE BROUGHT SOME SCT SC/CU AFT 00Z BUT WITH PCPN COVERAGE                      
REMAINING WDLY SCT AT BEST UNTIL LAST SVRL HOURS OF FCST...WILL                 
KEEP ANY PCPN MENTION OUT OF KDAY/KCMH/KLCK ATTM.                               
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...LOTT                                                                
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1104 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STORMS STRENGTHENED A BIT THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED WIND                  
DAMAGE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN ABOUT 900 AM CDT AND                
1030 AM CDT. THIS WAS ON TOP OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH                 
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA.                                         
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BIG QUESTION ON HOW MUCH WE CAN RECOVER BEHIND             
ONGOING MCS. NGH PROFILER WINDS AT 15Z IN 925-850MB LAYER RUNNING               
ABOUT 240-260 DEGREES WHILE 12Z NAM ABOUT 190 DEGREES AND 12Z RUC               
ABOUT 200 DEGREES. SO...INCOMING STRONG WAVE WILL NEED TO DO SOME               
WORK TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE VERY SUPPORTIVE SEVERE             
ENVIRONMENT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE              
THAT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN            
CWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...WHICH IS WHERE THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF               
THE NEAR SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE            
CAP...BUT WITH A STRONG WAVE COMING IN...BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE              
OVERCOME. AND WITH 4000 J/KG CAPE VIA A STRONG DRY PUNCH IN THE MID             
LEVELS AND DECENT SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. AND WITH LOW                
LCL`S...WOULD EXPECT TORNADOES TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. WILL SLOW                
HEATING IN THE EAST A LITTLE.                                                   
08                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND MCS. WILL ALSO              
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSUX...LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE PUSHING ACRS THE DKTS THIS MORNING...AND SFC                
BNDRY REALLY NOT IN A PLACE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM YDA AT THIS TIME.           
SAME OLD SOPPY ATMOSPHERE AS WELL.  NICE COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES            
TO EAST...INEXPLICABLY IN WELL IN WAKE OF EXITING WAVE AND BENEATH              
STRONG DRYING PUSH ALFT. LKLY THAT THIS HELPED TO DESTABILIZE AREA              
OF TRAILING BNDRY...AND WITH NLG PROFILER/FSD VWP CONTINUING TO SHOW            
A CLASSIC WAA PATTERN...REGENERATION HAS CONTINUED UNTIL EFFECT OF              
UPSTREAM WAVE CLOSING IN.  MAIN CONCERNS AGAIN SURROUND CONVECTIVE              
NATURE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SPECIFICALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...                
AND THEN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS MID LVL WNDS                 
STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH.                                         
ELEVATED STORMS ALSO WL PUSH FROM CNTRL INTO ERN SD THIS MORNING...             
FAIRLY WELL TIMED WITH 750ISH THETA E ADVECTION. SHUD SEE ACTIVITY              
BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT MOVING EWRD AS NO SIGNS THAT THETA E ADVECTION             
WL CEASE...ESPLY THRU NRN CWA...BUT SOME DECREASING INTENSITY WITH              
PROGRESS. LKLY TO LINK UP WITH FORMER MENTIONED I90 CONVECTION.                 
HOWEVER...ITS WAVE SEEN OVER YELLOWSTONE VCNTY THAT WL BE THE BIG               
PLAYER FOR AFTN CONVECTIVE THREAT. PLUME OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE                 
RATES FOLLOWING MORNING WAVE...WHICH SHUD SLOW UP CONVECTION FOR A              
TIME BEHIND FEATURE.  INSTABILITY WL BECOME QUITE FORMIDIBLE...                 
ESTIMATED 3-4KJ/KG CAPE WITH DEEP AND DISTRIBUTED SHEAR OF ARND 50              
KTS. CONCERN AREA IS SPECIFIALLY FAR SERN SD...NERN NEBRASKA...AND              
MOST OF NW IA AND I90 AREA OF SW MN...WITH GREATEST THREAT TOWARD               
KSUX AREA. SHEAR/THERMO PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT IN ADDITION TO VERY            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...                 
WL ALSO HAVE TO GIVE SERIOUS WATCH TO TORNADIC THREAT NR BOUNDARIES             
WITH SFC WAVE IN NERN NEBRASKA ENHANCING THREAT LOCALLY.                        
FFG HAS BEEN PUMMELLED BY REPEATED HEAVY RAINS ACRS AREAS OF SW MN              
AND NW IA LAST COUPLE DAYS...LOW ENOUGH THAT EVEN A MODEST WARM                 
CLOUD STORM COULD EASILY FORCE THE ISSUE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FFA             
FOR MUCH OF SW MN AND ERN PORTIONS OF NW IA FOR AFTN/TONIGHT. THIS              
DOES NOT MEAN THRAT DOES NOT EXIST THIS MORNING FOR MORE LOCALIZED              
AREA...AND THAT WOULD BE THE REGENERATIVE AREA ALONG THE I90                    
CORRIDOR IN SW MN. PCPN SHUD VASTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...                 
LAST IN FAR ERN AREAS...AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE FOR THE MOMENT.                 
HERCULEAN TASK TO TRY AND PIN DOWN ANYTHING AFTER TONIGHT...AS                  
GUIDANCE DIVERGING TO A POINT THAT BOUNDARY LOCATION AND WAVE TIMING            
DOES NOT MATCH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN THE LEAST BIT. FOR              
THE MOST PART...DID NOT OFFER UP A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE TO THE GRAND            
SENSE OF THE FCST BEYOND THIS POINT.  ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE LOOKS              
TO SWING THRU CYCLONIC UPR FLOW ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...AND DEPENDING IF             
MAIN BNDRY IS WELL TO NW AT 00Z WED PER EC/NAM...WELL S PER                     
UK/GFS...OR BISECTING CWA PER CANADIAN...WL VASTLY DETERMINE                    
DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS SVR THREAT. FOR THE TIME...               
KEPT THE MINORITY BUT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH...WHICH WOULD                 
AGAIN BRING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR MUCH OF SERN 1/3 OF CWA...                
AS WELL AS A STRONG SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY EVNG...AS                  
CAPPING AHEAD OF NEXT WK SHUD KEEP DAMPER ON ACTION UNTIL WAVE                  
APPROACHES LATE IN DAY.                                                         
WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AGAIN WED NIGHT THRU SRN                 
AREAS...WITH STALLING BNDRY JUST TO S...SETTING UP A GOOD JET                   
ENTRANCE DYNAMICAL SITUATION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE                
     TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-022.                                        
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE                
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090.                                    
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTED                             
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THUNDERSTORMS HANGING ON NW IA THIS EVENING NEAR A STALLED OUT                  
BNDRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.              
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF RECENTLY HEAVY RAINS...NOT              
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
EVENING...AS CONVECTION IS WEAK AND STORM COVERAGE IS RATHER                    
SMALL...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BROAD                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PERSIST IN SW MN AND NW IA.                              
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THIS                  
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW. MOST            
OF THIS WAVE WILL LIFT N INTO CANADA...HOWEVER SOME ENERGY WILL                 
SPILL E...BREAKING DOWN SW RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ATTM STORMS               
ABOUT TO CROSS INTO SD FROM WY. THESE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE             
EWRD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS AT TIMING WOULD BRING THUNDER               
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AROUND 3 AM. NO SEVERE STORMS              
EXPECTED...JUST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. FLOOD THREAT IS              
MINIMAL AS STORM SHOULD MOVE EAST A FAST ENOUGH CLIP...THAT HEAVY               
RAIN WOULD MAINLY BE SHOT LIVED. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS            
INTO ERN AREAS TOMORROW EVENING.                                                
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE FOG. MANY AREAS NORTH OF THE            
SFC FRONT ALREADY REPORTING FOG THIS EVENING. SOME PLACES IN SW MN              
AOB 1/4 SM...ALTHOUGH THIS IS MAINLY LOCALIZE ALONG UPSLOPE/ERN SIDE            
OF BUFFALO RIDGE. WILL MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT AFTER             
LOOKING AT MODEL PROGGED SOUNDING...WOULD LIKE TO SEE LESS MOISTURE             
ABOVE INVERSION LAYER TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ALSO...ANY               
STORMS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD SHAKE UP THE BNDRY LAYER.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF I90 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.            
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO FSD AND DROP CIGS BLO 1000 FT              
THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT IN KSUX                 
EARLY TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS WINDS LIGHT AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AM             
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION. EXPECTATION ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE              
VSBYS FALL BLO 5 SM. AT KFSD...NEAR THE SURFACE BNDY AND IN THE WARM            
SECTOR AT KSUX...VSBYS MAY DROP BLO 1SM FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.              
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WY AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO REACH ERN             
SD BY 12Z AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KSUX. A STRONG WAVE AND                
FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE EFFECTS OF MORNING              
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP NORTH OF KHON...HAVE ADDED CHC            
OF TSRA AT KSUX AND KFSD AFTER 20Z.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FSD CWA TODAY...               
WITH RADAR ESTIMATES THE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN COTTONWOOD AND                 
NORTHERN MURRAY COUNTIES. MUCH OF SW MINNESOTA AND NW IOWA NOW                  
SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...SO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER             
TODAY FOR THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH THRU MID                      
EVENING...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES THAT AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD             
WIND DOWN BY MID/LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST.                 
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJOINING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...                 
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS HEATED OUT            
TODAY...AND IS THE MOST UNSTABLE WITH VERY JUICY LOW  LEVEL SOUTH TO            
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER            
TO MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTLY PER THE LATEST RUC. SOME RISK OF AN            
ISOLATED TORNADO THRU EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTHWEST             
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE THE SHEER WILL             
BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE                   
NIGHT...AFTER A FEW ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...BUT FOG...                 
REDUCING VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE IN SOME AREAS..WILL BE COMMON                
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD MORNING                
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...WITH MORE HEAVY                
RAIN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                                                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LITTLE              
HEATING OCCURRED TODAY.                                                         
QUITE THE ADVENTUROUS FCST THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED STREAM OF SHORT             
WAVES INTERACTING WITH E/W BOUNDARIES AND SLY LOW LVL INFLOW OF GULF            
MOISTURE. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT MAIN WAVES AND ASSCD TSTMS              
WILL DVLP ESEWD OVR AREA FM LATE MON MRNG THRU THE AFTN...AGAIN TUE             
AFTN AND EVE...AND ENEWD OVR AREA LATE WED INTO THU. ANY ONE OF                 
THESE WAVES WILL HAVE GREAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER                
CHCS OF SVR DUE TO LACK OF GREAT INSTABILITY. FNTL BOUNDARY WAVERING            
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH TEMP FCSTG WITH                    
POTENTIALLY GREAT CONTRAST FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN CWA...BUT TREND IS              
FOR MODERATION OF AIR MASS TO THE NORTH...SO HOPEFULLY NO MORE 30               
DEGREE TEMP VARIATIONS FM N TO S IN CWA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN                
COOLED AIR. KEPT OUT CHCS PRECIP FOR FRI NGT INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR              
NOW AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN QUITE A BIT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LIEBL/SCHUMACHER/RYRHOLM                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTED                             
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FSD CWA TODAY...               
WITH RADAR ESTIMATES THE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN COTTONWOOD AND                 
NORTHERN MURRAY COUNTIES. MUCH OF SW MINNESOTA AND NW IOWA NOW                  
SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...SO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER             
TODAY FOR THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH THRU MID                      
EVENING...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES THAT AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD             
WIND DOWN BY MID/LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST.                 
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJOINING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...                 
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS HEATED OUT            
TODAY...AND IS THE MOST UNSTABLE WITH VERY JUICY LOW  LEVEL SOUTH TO            
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER            
TO MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTLY PER THE LATEST RUC. SOME RISK OF AN            
ISOLATED TORNADO THRU EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTHWEST             
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE THE SHEER WILL             
BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE                   
NIGHT...AFTER A FEW ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...BUT FOG...                 
REDUCING VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE IN SOME AREAS..WILL BE COMMON                
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD MORNING                
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...WITH MORE HEAVY                
RAIN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                                                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LITTLE              
HEATING OCCURRED TODAY.                                                         
QUITE THE ADVENTUROUS FCST THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED STREAM OF SHORT             
WAVES INTERACTING WITH E/W BOUNDARIES AND SLY LOW LVL INFLOW OF GULF            
MOISTURE. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT MAIN WAVES AND ASSCD TSTMS              
WILL DVLP ESEWD OVR AREA FM LATE MON MRNG THRU THE AFTN...AGAIN TUE             
AFTN AND EVE...AND ENEWD OVR AREA LATE WED INTO THU. ANY ONE OF                 
THESE WAVES WILL HAVE GREAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER                
CHCS OF SVR DUE TO LACK OF GREAT INSTABILITY. FNTL BOUNDARY WAVERING            
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH TEMP FCSTG WITH                    
POTENTIALLY GREAT CONTRAST FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN CWA...BUT TREND IS              
FOR MODERATION OF AIR MASS TO THE NORTH...SO HOPEFULLY NO MORE 30               
DEGREE TEMP VARIATIONS FM N TO S IN CWA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN                
COOLED AIR. KEPT OUT CHCS PRECIP FOR FRI NGT INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR              
NOW AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN QUITE A BIT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU MID MORNING MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF             
SOUTHEAST SD AND MUCH OF SW MINNESOTA. VFR CIGS ACROSS NW IOWA THIS             
EVENING...BUT A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THRU MID EVENING...THEN            
EXPECT KSUX TO GO DOWN IN IFR FOG AFTER 20/05Z...THRU MID MORNING               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014.              
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.              
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RYRHOLM/HARMON                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
938 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND              
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                 
SEEM TO BE MOVING MORE DUE EAST AT THE MOMENT. LATEST RUC MODEL                 
CONTINUES SHOWING THE REMNANTS MOVING NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE               
ON THE MOVEMENT AND MAY UPDATE POPS LATER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.                
WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING BUT AT THIS POINT NO              
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING               
SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE...MAINLY WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY.                         
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80S DEGREES AND DEW              
POINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                    
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DEADLY HEAT STILL THE                  
MAIN FOCUS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES                  
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 OR GREATER. PERHAPS WHERE IT                       
RAINED...TEMPS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 100 BUT HUMIDITY                    
LEVELS WILL COUNTERACT THAT AND MAKE IT FEEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE               
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.                                                            
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING.              
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND                 
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.                                       
THE LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXPLODED OVER WEST/CENTRAL              
OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY EVENING WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE W/NW FRINGE                 
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND CLIP A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST                     
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THUS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL                      
INHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM MAKING IT INTO THE TRIPLE                     
DIGITS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY...AND BASED ON              
PERSISTENCE HAVE OPTED TO FORECAST ABOUT FOUR DEGREES WARMER THAN               
GUIDANCE. THIS HINGES ON A COUPLE OF GIVENS...SUCH AS NO                        
RAINFALL AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THE                  
NEXT FORECAST. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REACH HEAT              
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY.                                                    
ANTICIPATE THE UPPER HIGH TO BUILD WEST OVER THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY              
BRINGING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND A                 
HEAT ADVISORY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS                   
DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD DROP                     
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MEM 100  77  97  77 /  20  20  20  20                                           
MKL  99  73  98  72 /  20  20  20  20                                           
JBR  98  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  20                                           
TUP  98  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-              
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-                       
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.                                    
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.            
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-            
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-                
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-                          
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.                
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-CROCKETT-            
     DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-                    
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.                                  
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR CARROLL-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
906 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY...AND RUC/NAM/GFS STREAMLINES NEAR               
600MB...DEPICT AN UPPER LOW. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS PROG A WWD                 
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MSA/CWFA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF              
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THUS CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW                
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...YET WL RETAIN VERY LOW POPS OVR THE                  
WATERS. WL NOT INTRODUCE ACTIVITY OVR LAND. PATCHY FOG REMAINS A                
POSSIBILITY OWING TO NEAR SFC MSTR/INCREASING DRYING ALOFT/LGT SFC              
WIND. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH COASTAL WIND              
NO GREATER THAN 15KT SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES ALONG             
AND EAST OF US281 BETWEEN 08Z-09Z. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR                  
BETWEEN 13Z-14Z WITH ISOLATED -SHRA ACTIVITY (AND ASSOCIATED TEMPO              
MVFR CIGS) APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD                
ONLY AFFECT THE KCRP-KVCT SITES BETWEEN 14Z-17Z. KVCT COULD ALSO SEE            
ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. WILL HANDLE THE                         
AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WITH VCSH/VCTS IN THE KCRP AND KVCT TAFS                
SINCE CONVECTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.                     
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE AFTER 14Z THROUGH              
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  92  77  /  10  10  10  30  20                     
VICTORIA          76  92  75  92  76  /  10  10  10  30  20                     
LAREDO            79 102  79 100  79  /  10  10  10  20  10                     
ALICE             76  95  75  94  76  /  10  10  10  30  20                     
ROCKPORT          81  92  80  92  81  /  10  10  20  30  20                     
COTULLA           74  97  74  96  75  /  10  10  10  20  10                     
KINGSVILLE        77  94  76  93  78  /  10  10  10  30  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  81  91  81  /  10  10  20  30  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WC/87...UPDATE                                                                  
TM/95...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
859 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS PARTS OF                
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
SHOULD BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEEKS END KEEPING HOT                
AND HUMID WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RETREATED BACK ALMOST TO THE BLUE                  
RIDGE THIS EVENING AS REFLECTED BY NE FLOW AT LYH/FVX. HOWEVER                  
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN BEST LIFT/SUPPORT TO                 
THE NORTH AND DECENT BUT SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.                
ALSO APPEARS THAT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW/MIXING AS SEEN VIA 00Z                     
RAOBS...AND SHOT OF LOWER DEWPTS OVER SW VA PER MSAS HAVE PUT A                 
LID ON TSRA SO FAR. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/WRF              
WHICH HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST OF LATE ALSO SHOWING MOST SHRA JUST                   
NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE ESPCLY                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ORGANIZED COVERAGE WILL              
BE IN THE FAR NORTH CLOSER TO PASSING DYNAMICS AND UNDER SOMEWHAT               
DEEPER RH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONT. SINCE COULD ALSO SEE SHRA STILL              
BACK BUILD FROM BANDS OFF TO THE NE PLAN TO LEAVE AT LEAST LOW                  
CHANCES GOING NORTHERN THIRD EARLY ON AND DIMINISH SOME LATE. OTRW              
THINK MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR                
OUTSIDE DEBRIS CLOUDS WHILE PC/MOSTLY CLOUDY PERSISTS UP NORTH.                 
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE NORTH WHILE               
LOWS CLOSER TO LAV MOS LIKELY ELSEWHERE GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND                   
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                   
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RIDE UP OVER              
THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY                    
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PULL MID-ATLANTIC CONVECTION SOUTH AND                
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION MAY               
SINK SOUTH DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT VA AND             
WV COUNTIES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER NC. REMAINS OF THIS                
MCS PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING SOME POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES                  
AROUND ON WEDNESDAY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY                 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WED BUT LEFT 20/30 POPS MAINLY IN THE                      
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND EASILY TO THE MID 90S OVER THE EAST               
AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY. GFS WARMS 850 MB TO 22-23C ON FRIDAY WHICH            
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS                  
MID-90S EVEN IN THE NRV AND NEAR 90 GREENBRIER VALLEY. COULD                    
DEFINITELY BE THREATENING RECORDS HIGHS AGAIN...WITH DEPARTURES FROM            
CLIMO APPROACHING PLUS 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THROUGH MOST OF THE LATE               
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF                
OTHER THAN WHAT OUTFLOWS MAY DEVELOP FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH               
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF                
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.              
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT IN THE EXTENDED                    
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AS SOME                 
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE BY EARLY                  
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MONDAY                
WHICH MAY HELP DROP 850 TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND                     
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL LIKELY A FEW                    
DEGREES ABOVE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF                
KLYH AS NOTED BY A NE WIND THERE. CONCERN IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE              
NIGHT WILL BE FOR THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH RESIDUAL              
MOISTURE UNDER THE RESULTANT INVERSION DEVELOPING INTO ANOTHER IFR              
OR LOWER STRATUS LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO                 
LIGHT FOG. KDAN MAY JUST BE ON THE FRINGE OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS                 
FORMING THERE AS WELL.                                                          
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF WV INTO NORTHERN                
VA. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ON                
THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATD SHRA/TSRA NEAR                
KLYH THROUGH ABOUT 02Z BECAUSE OF THIS.                                         
THE KLWB...KBLF..AND KROA TAF SITES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SW                 
WINDS AT THE SURFACE LESS THAN 10 KTS...ALSO WITH AN ACCOMPANYING               
INVERSION AND PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMING. ABOVE THE INVERSION                
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 35 KT                 
RANGE BY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MOST                    
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                       
AFTER SUNRISE...THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND WE WILL START TO GET               
SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. KLYH SHOULD SEE THIS                  
HAPPEN LAST UNTIL THE SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS A CHANCE TO HEAD               
BACK NORTH. WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS THERE THROUGH THE MID               
TO LATE MORNING.                                                                
BY THE AFTERNOON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NOW PREDOMINANT                      
WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE                
NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHSIDE VA AND NEIGHBORING NC MAY                 
EXPERIENCE TOO STRONG OF A DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FOR CONVECTION TO                
FIRE. THE ACTIVITY MAY JUMP THAT AREA INTO EASTERN PARTS OF VA AND NC.          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SUMMER TIME PULSE CONVECTION IS                 
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
ROANOKE...BLUEFIELD...AND BLACKSBURG ALREADY AHEAD OF A PACE TO                 
BREAK MONTHLY AVERAGE AUGUST HEAT RECORDS LOOKING AT DATA THROUGH               
AUGUST 20. ROANOKE OVER 2 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS RECORD                  
PACE FOR THE FIRST 20 DAYS BACK IN THE DROUGHT YEAR OF 1988. THE                
NEXT 7 DAYS WILL DO NOTHING BUT PAD THOSE NUMBERS. DANVILLE ON                  
PACE FOR 2ND HIGHEST...WHILE LYNCHBURG WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF                  
RECORD AND SOMEWHAT LESS EXTREME HEAT IS NOT IN THE TOP 10 YET.                 
RAINFALL NUMBERS ARE NOT MUCH BETTER AND SEVERAL STATIONS COULD                 
STILL SET ALL-TIME DRIEST AUGUST...BLACKSBURG HAS ONLY 0.12                     
INCHES THIS MONTH. WITH THE HEAT/DRY COMBINATION THE DROUGHT                    
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN ACROSS THE AREA.                                
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC                                                                
NEAR TERM...JH/JS                                                               
SHORT TERM...JS/PC                                                              
LONG TERM...PC                                                                  
AVIATION...DS/JS                                                                
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE                
DAY MONDAY BUT BRING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION HAS INCREASED DEWPOINTS DRAMATICALLY             
OVER YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A SFC BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT               
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS                 
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AREA IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW            
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE VA                
MTNS/SHEN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. UNTIL                      
SUNSET...OTHER ISOLD STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS WELL. I            
HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TSTMS THRU 800 PM ALL MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...            
AND THEN HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHC IN THE WEST CEN VA FOOTHILLS                    
PIEDMONT. LATE TONIGHT...WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE              
OHIO VALLEY MAY BE MOVING INTO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF SE WV...SO I             
KEPT THE LOW CHC POPS OUT THAT WAY. STAYED AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS             
TONIGHT- SHOULD BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE INCREASED                    
DEWPOINTS.                                                                      
KEY TO MONDAY FORECAST IS POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. IS               
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES ALONG IT                    
OVERNIGHT...IT MAY GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM              
AND GFS BRING IT NEAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR NOW...I FELT THE BEST              
COURSE WAS TO RAISE THE POPS AROUND 10 PCT TO THE NORTH...AND KEEP              
THE SLIGHT CHC OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN            
SECTIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID MONDAY...BUT WILL HAVE HEAT INDICES              
OF AROUND 100 WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OF 105. LOOKS LIKE                 
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY WIL BE OUT OF REACH AS WELL.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
MAIN QUESTION IS THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE REMAINS OF TD ERIN               
AND IT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY PROMISING AT THIS POINT. 12Z RUNS OF            
GFS/NAM HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS              
THE CWA AND KEEP BULK THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN TO THE                    
NORTH. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY EARLY WED. BUT MAIN                 
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS                
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT                   
WIDESPREAD SOAKING POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM. 12Z CANADIAN MODEL                 
ALSO CAME IN WITH QPF BULLSEYE CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS              
00Z RUN...MAINLY ACROSS MD AND SOUTHERN PA LATE TUESDAY INTO                    
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 6 ABOVE CLIMO                 
DURING THE PERIOD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
596 DM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US VERY HARD TO DISLODGE DURING              
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA                
WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THURSDAY LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS                
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE WEEK AND               
INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE OFFER LITTLE LIKELIHOOD               
OF DROUGHT RELIEF.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LAPS AND MSAS SHOWING THE AREA BECOMING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON                 
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS. THERE IS                 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON                 
OTHER THAN DIFF HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MTNS WEST OF                
THE BLUE RIDGE. RUC MODEL SHOWS PRECIP IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROA                 
VALLEYS 21 TO 00Z...AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. 12Z                 
NAM INITIATES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...BUT HINTS AT THE SAME. FOR                
THIS REASON...I HAVE KEPT IN THE VICINITY TSTM THAT WE ALREADY HAD              
GOING FOR ROA...LYH AND DAN. I REMOVED IT FROM BLF AND LWB. I ALSO              
NARROWED THE WINDOW OF VICINITY TSTMS DOWN TO 3 HOUR PERIODS.                   
OTHER THAN A CHANCE FOR IFR OR MVFR WITH A PASSING TSTM...I LOOK                
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LYH MAY HAVE A                
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. I KEPT IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR              
LWB AS MODELS STILL SHOW SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO               
SE WV OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON                  
MONDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES.                                        
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WAVES TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY                
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. GREATEST CHANCE              
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY (LWB) AND LESS                    
CHANCE TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA (DAN).                                               
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PC                                                                   
NEAR TERM...JJ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...PC                                                                 
LONG TERM...PC                                                                  
AVIATION...JJ                                                                   
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
142 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK             
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.            
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
WITH A SOLID OVERCAST OF STRATO-CUMULUS OVER THE PIEDMONTS OF NW                
NC AND WEST CENTRAL VA...I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR MORE SKY                  
COVER THIS MORNING. WITH HEATING...THIS OVC SHOULD SCATTER OUT                  
AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER. BECAUSE OF THE SKY COVER...I LOWERED              
HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE PIEDMONT. I RAISED THE HIGH                   
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN...A WARM                   
START AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BLF MAY HIT 90                    
DEGREES...WHICH IS THEIR RECORD FOR TODAY- 90 DEGREES SET IN 1988.              
NO OTHER RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE THREATENED. OTHER CHANGE TO THE                 
FCST WAS TO RAISE THE DEWPOINTS IN THE PIEDMONT WITH UPPER 60S TO               
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NC. FINALLY...I                    
RAISED POPS IN THE MTNS ENOUGH TO HAVE ISOLD TSTMS ALL AREAS.                   
LOOKS LIKE PIEDMONT AREAS WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE WITH THOSE                  
HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT NO BOUNDARY OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO                      
GENERATE STORMS...SO WOULD PROBABLY NEED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE               
MTNS AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.                    
BETTER CHC FOR STORMS WOULD THEN BE EARLY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
MODELS HAVE BE SHOWING STATIONARY BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM THE                  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON                   
LINE. 07Z SUN SATELLITE DATA IS VERIFYING THIS BOUNDARY. THE                    
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY               
AND WAVES DEVELOPING ON IT AND RIDING AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN               
SOUTHEASTERN US. WAVES THAT MAKE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL                   
ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOISTURE IN THE                  
AREA AND ENERGY FROM THESE WAVES WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF                    
STORMS TO NORTHERN CWA. WITH MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BUT                
THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE VA                       
HIGHLANDS. ONCE ONE WAVE EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...ANOTHER ONE WILL               
DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.              
CONVECTION MAY LINGER DEEPER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROF                    
BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF MONDAY                
BUT 00Z GFS BRINGS ONE OF THE WAVES/MCS INTO CENTRAL WV-VA. THIS                
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTH OF 460.                             
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITH UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO                    
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TRANSITION BACK TO A                
MORE DIURNAL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN WESTERN                 
PARTS OF THE AREA. WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL IN THE                  
PROXIMITY OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING             
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. WILL HELP LIFT THIS FRONT                
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD            
BACK NORTH OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL PLACE US IN A REGIME WITH                   
LIMITED...IF ANY...DYNAMICS ALOFT...BUT WE STILL WILL HAVE PLENTY OF            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE                 
AGAIN WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER                
COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED            
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BECAUSE OF THIS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LAPS AND MSAS SHOWING THE AREA BECOMING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON                 
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS. THERE IS                 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON                 
OTHER THAN DIFF HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MTNS WEST OF                
THE BLUE RIDGE. RUC MODEL SHOWS PRECIP IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROA                 
VALLEYS 21 TO 00Z...AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. 12Z                 
NAM INITIATES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...BUT HINTS AT THE SAME. FOR                
THIS REASON...I HAVE KEPT IN THE VICINITY TSTM THAT WE ALREADY HAD              
GOING FOR ROA...LYH AND DAN. I REMOVED IT FROM BLF AND LWB. I ALSO              
NARROWED THE WINDOW OF VICINITY TSTMS DOWN TO 3 HOUR PERIODS.                   
OTHER THAN A CHANCE FOR IFR OR MVFR WITH A PASSING TSTM...I LOOK                
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LYH MAY HAVE A                
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. I KEPT IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR              
LWB AS MODELS STILL SHOW SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO               
SE WV OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON                  
MONDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES.                                        
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WAVES TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY                
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. GREATEST CHANCE              
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY (LWB) AND LESS                    
CHANCE TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA (DAN).                                               
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RCS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JJ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...RCS                                                                
LONG TERM...DS                                                                  
AVIATION...JJ/RCS                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY             
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISHING              
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS              
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. DRY WEATHER                
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND                   
WESTERN U.S.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING                 
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE WA/OR COAST WITH                 
WESTERN WASHINGTON UNDER THE DIFFLUENT ZONE. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT BUT            
STEADY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCALES REPORTING A FEW                 
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. LIGHT RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO                  
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS            
SHOW THE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND RIGHT OVER THE CASCADES BY 18Z. MM5             
GFS ALSO HINTING AT WEAK CONVERGENCE AROUND NORTHERN KING AND                   
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FEW            
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLD CORE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR ANY ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE            
FAIRLY MILD WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. A MODEST 66 AT                 
SEATAC IS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                       
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO E WA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS              
TAPERING OFF AND LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL                   
RETURN THE THE COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING INLAND                  
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POTENT AND FAST MOVING             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. BY TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER              
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                   
.LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE               
DRY AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL                    
PACIFIC...WITH HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE PACNW. TEMPERATURES WILL               
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLE 80S RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR BY             
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS H5 582 HEIGHTS REACH UP INTO THE AREA. A                 
PLEASANT RETURN TO SUMMER INDEED. FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS TRYING TO            
BRING CLOSED LOW DOWN FROM GULF OF AK WITH A FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE             
BC COAST TOWARD WA. TOO FAR OUT TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT IT YET SO NO BIG            
CHANGES MADE. 33                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS               
UPPER TROF APPROACHES COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO                   
DETERIORATE THRU 15Z AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL INTO MOIST BOUNDARY            
LAYER. ONCE TROF AXIS PASSES INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FLOW WILL             
VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. MESO MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL             
GENERATE A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CONDITIONS NORTH            
SOUND BUT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY MVFR...BUT             
WITH SOME LOCAL IFR...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. KSEA WINDS            
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLY. COLMAN                                               
&&                                                                              
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE                                                             
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
600 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...RAPID WARMING OF TOPS AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND                    
INTENSITY OF 88-D RETURNS HAS LED TO THE CANCELLATION OF THE FFA.               
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH                 
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HOPEFULLY DRY OUT...BUT UNTIL THEN                 
LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE               
HEAVY RAIN AND SVR WX AT TIMES. OVERALL ROUGH GO OF IT FOR MUCH OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
HOPING FOR A BIT OF A LULL HERE TODAY BUT APPEARS WE WILL STILL BE A            
STILL UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE              
FROM CNTRL WI EXTENDING SW INTO IA. DRYING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                 
EXTENDING FROM SW MN BACK INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. 30 KT H8 LLJ STILL              
IMPINGING UPON BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT ACRS THE CWA. SOME WEAKENING            
AND VEERING NOTED ON BLR PROFILER. MOISTURE GRADIENT NOT NEARLY AS              
TIGHT AS LAST NIGHT AS MOISTURE HAS BECOME FAIRLY UNIFORM ACRS SRN              
WI. WILL NEED TO HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH ESP THIS MORNING AS              
LLJ STILL DOING ITS THING PER RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM. HAVE BEEN                  
MULLING OVER WHAT TO DO WITH FFA...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND IT TO 18Z             
MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPLEX ACRS ERN IA. TOPS STILL COOLING A BIT             
AND NOTICING A MORE EWD DRIFT RATHER THAN ESE...SO WILL BUMP THE                
POPS IN THE SOUTH. H8 PROGS INDICATE SOME RIDGING WILL EVOLVE                   
TODAY WITH H8 JET SHIFTING TO THE EAST LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY                
OF CONVERGENCE. 00Z ECMWF AMONG OTHER MODELS SHOWING A RELATIVE                 
MIN IN FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHILE THETAE ADVECTION ALSO TRAILS               
OFF AFT THE MRNG HRS. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN DEVELOPING THIS                
AFTN THE BRIEF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WAVE AND THE LESS FAVORABLE                
H8 FORCING IN PLACE WOULD SEEM TO IMPLY LESS COVERAGE TO THE PCPN.              
ALSO GUID POPS ARE MAXED OUT AT 12Z THIS MORNING THEN TREND DOWN.               
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TRAIL THEM                
OFF. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER TODAY SO ANOTHER                
COOLISH DAY IN STORE.                                                           
RELATIVE LULL INTO TONIGHT WITH LLJ PROGS REFOCUSING TO OUR WEST                
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. SPEED AND STRENGTH OF WAVE ON MODELS               
VARIES HOWEVER BEST TIME FRAME FOR PCPN ASSOC WITH IT WILL BE                   
TUESDAY. SFC PROGS SHOWING THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED TO             
OUR SOUTH FOR THESE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HEAD BACK NORTH.                   
GETTING SOME AMAZING DEW POINTS FROM THE MET MOS...77 AND 78 AT THE             
DELLS FOR TUE AND WED. A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...WILL STEER LOWER             
TOWARDS MAV MOS. BUFKIT SHOWS CAPES GETTING OVER 1K FOR TUE.                    
OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM TUE NIGHT RIGHT INTO FRI WILL BE                
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF TSTORMS. BOUNDARY WILL BE                      
MEANDERING WITH UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WAVES OF UPPER                
SUPPORT ACROSS TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTAB.                    
APPEARS STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE COMING FOR TUE NGT...WED NGT AND                  
THU...SO HAVE OPTED TO BOOST TO LIKELY THOSE PERIODS. MODELS VARY ON            
THE LAST WAVE FOR FRIDAY WITH GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE. ECMWF AND                    
CANADIAN NOT AS EXCITED. WILL STILL HAVE A CHC THOUGH FOR FRIDAY.               
WILL BE ISSUING AN ESF TO LAY OUT POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING THIS              
WEEK DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND THESE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF                     
CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT NEXT WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE QUIETER.                
10                                                                              
AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD IFR CIGS/VSBYY IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z TUE              
WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. EAST WINDS ALSO PICKING UP MOISTURE              
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFT 18Z             
AFTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA. STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN            
IL THRU PD.                                                                     
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ056>058-                 
062>072.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
355 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH                
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HOPEFULLY DRY OUT...BUT UNTIL THEN                 
LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE               
HEAVY RAIN AND SVR WX AT TIMES. OVERALL ROUGH GO OF IT FOR MUCH OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
HOPING FOR A BIT OF A LULL HERE TODAY BUT APPEARS WE WILL STILL BE A            
STILL UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE              
FROM CNTRL WI EXTENDING SW INTO IA. DRYING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                 
EXTENDING FROM SW MN BACK INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. 30 KT H8 LLJ STILL              
IMPINGING UPON BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT ACRS THE CWA. SOME WEAKENING            
AND VEERING NOTED ON BLR PROFILER. MOISTURE GRADIENT NOT NEARLY AS              
TIGHT AS LAST NIGHT AS MOISTURE HAS BECOME FAIRLY UNIFORM ACRS SRN              
WI. WILL NEED TO HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH ESP THIS MORNING AS              
LLJ STILL DOING ITS THING PER RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM. HAVE BEEN                  
MULLING OVER WHAT TO DO WITH FFA...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND IT TO 18Z             
MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPLEX ACRS ERN IA. TOPS STILL COOLING A BIT             
AND NOTICING A MORE EWD DRIFT RATHER THAN ESE...SO WILL BUMP THE                
POPS IN THE SOUTH. H8 PROGS INDICATE SOME RIDGING WILL EVOLVE                   
TODAY WITH H8 JET SHIFTING TO THE EAST LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY                
OF CONVERGENCE. 00Z ECMWF AMONG OTHER MODELS SHOWING A RELATIVE                 
MIN IN FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHILE THETAE ADVECTION ALSO TRAILS               
OFF AFT THE MRNG HRS. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN DEVELOPING THIS                
AFTN THE BRIEF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WAVE AND THE LESS FAVORABLE                
H8 FORCING IN PLACE WOULD SEEM TO IMPLY LESS COVERAGE TO THE PCPN.              
ALSO GUID POPS ARE MAXED OUT AT 12Z THIS MORNING THEN TREND DOWN.               
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TRAIL THEM                
OFF. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER TODAY SO ANOTHER                
COOLISH DAY IN STORE.                                                           
RELATIVE LULL INTO TONIGHT WITH LLJ PROGS REFOCUSING TO OUR WEST                
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. SPEED AND STRENGTH OF WAVE ON MODELS               
VARIES HOWEVER BEST TIME FRAME FOR PCPN ASSOC WITH IT WILL BE                   
TUESDAY. SFC PROGS SHOWING THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED TO             
OUR SOUTH FOR THESE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HEAD BACK NORTH.                   
GETTING SOME AMAZING DEW POINTS FROM THE MET MOS...77 AND 78 AT THE             
DELLS FOR TUE AND WED. A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...WILL STEER LOWER             
TOWARDS MAV MOS. BUFKIT SHOWS CAPES GETTING OVER 1K FOR TUE.                    
OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM TUE NIGHT RIGHT INTO FRI WILL BE                
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF TSTORMS. BOUNDARY WILL BE                      
MEANDERING WITH UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WAVES OF UPPER                
SUPPORT ACROSS TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTAB.                    
APPEARS STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE COMING FOR TUE NGT...WED NGT AND                  
THU...SO HAVE OPTED TO BOOST TO LIKELY THOSE PERIODS. MODELS VARY ON            
THE LAST WAVE FOR FRIDAY WITH GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE. ECMWF AND                    
CANADIAN NOT AS EXCITED. WILL STILL HAVE A CHC THOUGH FOR FRIDAY.               
WILL BE ISSUING AN ESF TO LAY OUT POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING THIS              
WEEK DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND THESE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF                     
CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT NEXT WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE QUIETER.                
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD IFR CIGS/VSBYY IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z TUE             
WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. EAST WINDS ALSO PICKING UP MOISTURE              
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFT 18Z             
AFTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA. STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN            
IL THRU PD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ056>058-                 
062>072.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
341 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND                     
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.                             
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE               
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH               
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LATEST 06Z                
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN                
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS IS IN              
ASSOCIATION OF DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850MB PER LATEST RUC                
ANALYSIS.                                                                       
THE 00Z MONDAY GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WELL             
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN            
IN DEVELOPING FAST WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER             
THROUGH PERIOD. THOUGH...BIG DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP AFTER 12Z             
TUESDAY WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES AND SHORTWAVE             
TROUGHS ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS                    
MODERATE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTA MOVING              
INTO FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS              
LOW AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BASED ON THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TIMING              
AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.                   
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CURRENT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST               
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA MOVES EAST FORECAST AREA BY 15Z MONDAY.             
BOTH THE 00Z MONDAY GFS AND NAM INDICATE WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW                
FOR A SMALL BREAK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA DURING THE MID DAY TODAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS           
MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z TUESDAY. 00Z MONDAY GFS MUCH           
STRONGER WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH                
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN NAM. BOTH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND 21Z SREF              
DOES INDICATE OVER 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE                         
PRECIPITATION OVER FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                   
THOUGH...BOTH THE 00Z MONDAY MODELS INDICATE BEST LIFT AND                      
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY FOR EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE            
OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                                                      
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT AND              
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ALLOWS FOR VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN                
FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MONDAY GFS MUCH FASTER WITH                
SURFACE LOW THAN NAM. THOUGH...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE                 
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA E CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF                        
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.                      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD. LATEST 00Z MONDAY GFS AND ECMWF                  
INDICATE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL                   
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING             
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG SURFACE IS LOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST             
HAS GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT             
THIS TIME.                                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BETTER FORCING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT FOR SHRA/TSRA MOVES OFF TO             
THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SCT                
SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT OVER            
THE AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE             
SFC-850MB WARM FRONTAL INVERSION OVER THE AREA. EAST/SOUTHEAST SFC              
WINDS AND PLENTY OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL                
ALLOW FOR LITTLE SCOURING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW CLOUDS AND            
FOG. APPEARS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VFR TO IFR VSBYS /DEPENDING ON LOCAL             
ELEVATION/ WILL BE THE RULE THRU MUCH TODAY/TONIGHT. SOME SMALL                 
IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING              
HOURS DUE TO WEAK DIURNAL WARMING.                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG               
AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. WILL ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH            
TO EXPIRE AT 09Z MONDAY BASED ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE               
FROM AROUND A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM ONGOING                       
PRECIPITATION. SOME RIVERS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
HALF OF THE HSA AT THIS TIME. WITH A FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS             
SOUTHERN IOWA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS            
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY           
OF ADDITIONAL RISES ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR            
ALL THE DETAILS ON THE RIVERS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...DTJ                                                 
.AVIATION...RRS                                                                 
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
824 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH                  
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN YIELDING MIXED SIGNALS.                                
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS MOVING                   
SOUTHEAST INTO VERY RICH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER 500                
MILLIBAR RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 17 UNIT VORTICITY CENTER OVER WEST                
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOVING EAST. ASSOCIATED 500 MILLIBAR DIVERGENCE               
WITH THIS VORTICITY MAX SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED UPPER AIR SUPPORT              
TO BROAD RAIN AREA AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION APPROACHING WESTERN CWA              
FROM MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION 850 MILLIBAR FLOW FROM BOTH                 
RUC PROG AND NEARBY PROFILERS FEEDING A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET INTO              
CWA FROM EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE                 
ACROSS CWA. FINALLY VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER                   
WATCH AREA DICTATE THAT EVEN A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WOULD BE A               
CONCERN FOR EITHER RIVER OF FLASH FLOODING.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND             
ACTIVE WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.                                        
CWA RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH RGNL PROFILERS AND 88-D VAD WINDS                 
SHOWING 850 MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST...WITH BEST LIFT                   
FOCUSED ON NRN IL CLOSER TO SFC WRM FRONT. RESPITE WILL BE                      
SHORT-LIVED AS 2 FEATURES APPROACH CWA. CONVECTION IN SW/ SCNRTL MN             
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES IN FAR SE            
S DAKOTA...SECOND FEATURE IS APPARENT MCV EJECTING NEWD FROM REMAINS            
OF ERIN WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGING NWD THRU NRN MO/SE IA AND              
INTERACTING WITH SFC FNT DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL. TSTMS ARE FORMING IN             
NERN IA AHEAD OF THIS MCV. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS 2 GROWING AREAS OF 2            
INCH PWS WITH THESE FEATURES THAT MODEL FCSTS MOVE INTO CWA AFTER               
00Z.                                                                            
SFC-850 AND 850-700MB 2D FRONTOGENTIC FCSTS SHOW INCREASING FORCING             
AS 850 MB WINDS BACK TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHRT WV TROUGH OVER                 
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...THO WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST                   
NIGHT...IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.  SFC FRONT LIFTS CLOSER TO SRN WI AS             
WELL. MIXED LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES OVER CWA BETWEEN 06Z              
AND 12Z...WITH GFS BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE FOR MSN                
INCREASING FROM AROUND 650 J/KG AT 03Z...TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 09Z.            
CRAS INFRARED FCSTS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL               
OVER SRN WI AS THE TWO AREAS PHASE OVER NE IA/SW WI WITH CRAS                   
SHOWING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING FROM SE MN/NE IA AT 00Z SPREADING             
OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.                                               
WITH SATURATED GROUND AND ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS IN WRN CWA...AND               
LOW COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD               
WATCH FROM 23Z TODAY THRU 12Z MONDAY FOR COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN THE              
FLOOD WARNING. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING GOING UNTIL 7 PM             
FOR S CNTRL WI COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS ONGOING FLOODING                         
PROBLEMS...BUT CANCEL FOR SE WI COUNTIES.                                       
BEST FORCING FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF CWA DURING THE LATE DAY                     
MONDAY...BUT SFC BNDRY...850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SERIES OF SHRT               
WAVES EJECTING FROM NW U.S. TROF AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN U.S IN                 
ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP CHC PCPN IN FCST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.                   
EXTENDED...A BLEND OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PREFERRED FOR                     
EXTENDED. THIS SOLUTION...FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE                             
WEDNESDAY...DROPS THE SFC BNDRY TO THE WI/IL BRDER AND STALLS THERE             
FOR THURSDAY. 850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE             
FROM THE PLAINS AND PROVIDES LIFT ACROSS BNDRY TO KEEP CHC FOR                  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FCST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. THIS LAST WAVE IN A SERIES TRACKS ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES               
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NEEDED BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS DRY                
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING SFC             
LOW AND HOLDS OVER REGION THRU THE WEEKEND.                                     
AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD MVFR CONDS IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z MON.                 
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPCTD IN PDS OF HVY RA/TSRA INTO 18Z MON.              
STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN IL THRU PD WITH MSTR LIFTING OVR FNT INTO             
SRN WI.                                                                         
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR WIZ056>058-062>064-067>069.                        
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY              
FOR WIZ056>058-062>072.                                                         
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ056>058-062>072.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
149 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOCUS NEXT 6 HOURS WILL LIE WITH DEPARTING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FWA            
AND THEN STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. BULK OF PRECIP HAS                   
SHIFTED SE OF KFWA...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING TO THE             
WEST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RISE IN             
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD AND BRING A TEMP END TO               
PRECIP. MSTR RICH ATMOSPHERE FROM COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND                   
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO TUES                 
AM...SO HAVE KEPT IFR CIGS GOING INTO THE MORNING. AT KSBN ONLY LOW             
CLOUDS/FOG TO DEAL WITH FOR NOW.                                                
THEN MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO LARGE COMPLEX IN EASTERN IOWA WORKING EAST.            
TRAJECTORIES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THIS SHOULD KEEP                  
TRACKING EAST AND ARRIVE SOMETIME IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.            
POSSIBLY BASED ON LLJ SIGNALS THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ON               
LEADING EDGE AND ALLOW FOR SOONER ARRIVAL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE BEYOND            
12Z ALONE IN TAFS AND LOOK AT THINGS CLOSE AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...                                            
OVERALL SYNOPSIS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER            
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES...SMALL AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE EXTREME             
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HUDSON BAY. LAST BITS OF ERIN REMAIN              
ACROSS THE OZARKS. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE MOD                  
VALLEY TO NEAR CHICAGO ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO.               
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET STILL               
DRIVING INTO THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH THE WINDS SEEM TO HAVE VEERED                
SOME TO THE WEST...POSSIBLY THE REASONING FOR THE LESSER AMOUNTS                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FLOODING               
CONCERNS ARE LESSENING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.                               
TONIGHT THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION              
AS MODELS AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS EACH SHOWS THE BETTER                         
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND PARTS EAST.                    
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE ROBBING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS                 
CENTRAL INDIANA THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS              
THINKING. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. RIVER FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN               
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT THE                 
SURFACE HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE REGION...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH BELOW THE UPPER               
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NW COUNTIES NEAR                  
HILLSDALE MI WHERE MID TO LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE.                           
TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES...WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ALL DAY               
PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY...BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DOES. AFTERNOON             
HEATING WILL DROP LI`S TO AROUND -5 OR -6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES              
NEARING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED AFTERNOON                 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL                 
POSSIBLE. WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT...SOME                
NUISANCE FLOODING AND QUICK FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR BUT A NEED FOR             
A FLOOD WATCH IS UNWARRANTED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHS              
WILL REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...ONLY LIMITED BY THE CLOUD                
COVER AS H850 TEMPS JUMP TO NEAR 20C ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL                
PUSH INTO THE 80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BEGINNING OF FCST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DIMINISHING CHANCES OF                  
PRECIP AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WHATS LEFT OF            
ERIN SHIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TUE NITE THROUGH WED                   
MORNING ACCORDINGLY WITH DRY FCST OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z              
WED. THIS WILL HAVE OUR CWA IN WARM SECTOR...WARM HUMID AND VERY                
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT             
RAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCT TSRA BY THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS ON WED DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT LARGER SCALE FOCUS AND            
FORCING. MODELS INDICATING PREVAILING SW FLOW WITH OUR AREA IN WARM             
SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE                   
SUSTAINED 1 TO 2 DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING IN THIS TIME              
FRAME...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS FROM CURRENT FCST               
AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN REMAINDER            
OF EXTENDED AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT TO MOVE                  
THROUGH ON SAT BRINGING DRY FCST TO THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. WARMING              
TREND EXPECTED MID WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING                
TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 90...WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE WED AND THUR IF ANY            
APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF SUN. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F HEAT INDICES               
COULD APPROACH 100 WED AND THU AFTN IF L90S ARE REALIZED.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT/LASHLEY                                                     
LONG TERM....LOGSDON                                                            
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
259 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT):...                                             
PCPN POTENTIAL AND TEMPS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT                
TERM. REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL ACCELERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
FA TODAY. TRW/RW WILL ENTER NWRN PTNS OF FA ABOUT THE TIME THIS FCST            
IS ISSUED AND THEN AS ERIN STARTS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...THE PCPN             
THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA BY LATE MORNING             
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL GO WI 50 PCT POPS FOR A TIME               
WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST. NO             
MENTION OF PCPN TONIGHT AS PER CURRENT FCST.                                    
WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT VERY               
WARM HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY. THIS AGREES            
WELL WITH OUR CURRENT FCST AND THE PREFERRED MAV FCST TRENDS. --21              
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                   
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A FAST            
ZONAL FLOW WITH THE JET STREAK ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. ONE LOW            
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET STREAK             
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                 
CANADIAN PROVINCES. OF MORE DIRECT IMPORTANCE TO OUR AREA IS THE                
VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE 00Z            
THURS FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF UP TO 597DM ACROSS THE GULF STATES              
BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE                 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ALSO CENTER OVER THE              
GULF STATES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY            
WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES                    
APPROACHING 30 ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY MOVE BACK INTO            
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                            
EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THESE TWO DAYS. THE AXIS OF HIGHER                 
MOISTURE WILL LIE TO OUR NORTHWEST...STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                              
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                        
RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE                  
STORM TRACK ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT               
FROM KANSAS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO SAG              
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT.  EVENTUALLY THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL                    
APPROACH KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS             
BOUNDARY AND SO WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND             
TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS SLOWS DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE                       
FRONT...WHICH MAY STALL NEAR KENTUCKY SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS FOR               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS):...                                                        
THE REMNANTS OF ERIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN POTIONS OF FA DURING               
THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING TIME FRAME. WILL GO WI MTN OF VCTS IN                
TAFS...SDF FOR LATER TONIGHT AND DURING MORNING FOR LEX. THE                    
REMNANTS ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.               
LATEST RUC40 INDICATES SAME. GENERALLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF               
PERIOD. ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SFC GRADIENT TO ELIMINATE ANY REAL THREAT             
OF MVFR CONDS WITH LATE NIGHT FOG. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE ON WED AND WILL LIKEWISE REDUCE THE                
WIND SPEEDS IN TAFS. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS NOT AS ROBUST             
AS THE EARLIER INDICATED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO OPTED NOT TO                 
MENTION LLWS OVERNIGHT. --21                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
159 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONGOING CONVECTION FROM DECAY OF EXTRA TROPICAL ERIN REMNANTS                   
BEST IDENTIFIED BY RUC/NAM...W/SENSIBLE WEATHER REALIZATION                     
PERHAPS BEST REFLECTED BY NOT ONLY MEASURABLE PCPN BUT ALSO 5-15                
MPH MID AUGUST BREEZE. IT LIFTS THE NOW MCV AND OPENS THE WAVE                  
TODAY WHILE LINGERING A POP ESP NERN PTNS FA...ANOTHER REASON WE                
PREFER NAM LEAN GIVEN DRY GFS SOLUTION. AFTER TODAY THOUGH THE                  
INCREASING PREDOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR/INFLUENCE WILL BE THE                     
BUILDING 597DM+ H5 HIGH PRESSURE DOME ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL                 
ARC ITS RIDGELINE UP THE MS VALLEY AND RESULT IN A RETURN OF                    
HEAT/HUMIDITY THAT WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO HIT/EXCEED 100 AND                
MAY APPROACH 105 WED-FRI. ALL OF THIS IS FAIRLY WELL REPRESENTED                
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR 00Z DATA                  
INCORPORATION AND COLLABORATION WERE NEEDED.                                    
THEN AFTER THAT THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN...THE FLOW GOES MORE                       
ZONAL...AND NRN STREAM STEERING ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY                
OUT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN CHC POPS OVER THE WEEKEND.              
THE LATEST GFS FLIRTS WITH EXTENDING THIS CHANCE INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE EXISTING                  
PACKAGE SO WE`LL AWAIT MORE MODEL INGEST BEFORE ALTERING LONG                   
RANGE PTN OF FORECAST.                                                          
A NAM BIAS RESULTS IN A LEAN TOWARD ITS MET BASED MOS...WHICH                   
MEANS MAINLY SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT STILL HOT) HIGHS TODAY...AFTER                
THAT ALL THE MOS IS PRETTY CLOSE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT-BKN CEILINGS IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME              
LOWER CEILINGS NEAR KEVV AND KPAH DUE TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY                 
APPROACHING. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALSO                
WITH ANY PRECIP. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO CURTAIL TOWARD                   
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.                            
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL                  
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY TODAY ALONG WITH SCT 4000 FT CUMULUS.                  
FOR NOW HAVE JUST VICINITY THUNDERSTORM AS SUBSEQUENT SETS OF TAFS              
SHOULD BE BETTER ABLE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN            
TODAY BY MID MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY               
SUNSET.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS):...                                                        
THE REMNANTS OF ERIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN POTIONS OF FA DURING               
THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING TIME FRAME. WILL GO WI MTN OF VCTS IN                
TAFS...SDF FOR LATER TONIGHT AND DURING MORNING FOR LEX. THE                    
REMNANTS ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.               
LATEST RUC40 INDICATES SAME. GENERALLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF               
PERIOD. ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SFC GRADIENT TO ELIMINATE ANY REAL THREAT             
OF MVFR CONDS WITH LATE NIGHT FOG. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE ON WED AND WILL LIKEWISE REDUCE THE                
WIND SPEEDS IN TAFS. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS NOT AS ROBUST             
AS THE EARLIER INDICATED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO OPTED NOT TO                 
MENTION LLWS OVERNIGHT. --21                                                    
&&                                                                              
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
LOWERED PRECIP OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE                  
NEAR ST. LOUIS IS CURRENTLY GENERATING NEW CONVECTION OVER SERN                 
MO. THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH                    
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS ACROSS IN/OH AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY               
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN (ALSO GENERATING NEW CONVECTION NOW) SHOULD                
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NW OF              
A LINE FROM BOWLING GREEN TO FRANKFORT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST                
CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND NRN CWA.                                          
SINCE I LOWERED LIKELY POPS TO CHC (SIMILAR TO SREF VALUES)...ALSO              
TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF HVY RAIN THOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM                 
WILL IN FACT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN               
PLACE...COULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.                    
BECAUSE OF THIS...MENTIONED LLWS IN THE TAFS AS WELL.                           
LOWERED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND BUMPED UP                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER                       
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING.                                                        
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                             
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH                   
PRODUCED TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND               
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH THIS BEING THE 22ND DAY WITH THE                    
TEMPERATURE AT 90 OR ABOVE IN LOUISVILLE THAT RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET             
IN 1936 HAS NOW BEEN BROKEN. A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER MISSOURI THIS             
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WILL             
ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WESTERN              
KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER             
THAN 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL WINDS              
WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30KTS SO GUSTY WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS                  
WELL.                                                                           
PRECIPITATION CHANGES WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AS THE S/W MOVES EAST OF            
THE AREA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE                 
REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA.                                                                           
SLD/JA                                                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE            
WILL KEEP DRY BUT HOT WEATHER OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH                   
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER              
WITH DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 70...HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE            
100 THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                 
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGER TERM WILL BE HOW              
HIGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AND THE HEAT INDICES. THE NAM IS                  
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WITHOUT            
A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS                
GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST               
AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WARMER AIR OVER OUR REGION. THIS PATTER WILL             
HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                
SOUTHERN CANADA ALLOWS A FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO                
VALLEY.                                                                         
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                                  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN            
CANADA...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO                 
VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE             
SLOWER GFS AND ECMWF ARE PREFERRED FOR THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT. THE                
LATTER MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH ADDS               
SUPPORT TO THIS REASONING.                                                      
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS               
THE NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA ON SATURDAY THEN END FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT             
EXITS THE AREA.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COOLER              
AIR INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND               
MONDAY.                                                                         
SCHOLZ                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
431 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING             
COVERING MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA AND FROM WASHINGTON INTO NORTH                  
DAKOTA...WHILE RIDGING WAS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD            
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THREE SHRTWVS OF NOTE INCLUDE ONE OVER                 
NORTHEAST WI...ANOTHER IN NW MN/FAR WRN ONTARIO AND A THIRD IN SW               
MN. DPVA FROM THE NORTHEAST WI SHRTWV HELPED TO PRODUCE A FEW                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF WI LAST EVENING.              
HOWEVER...AS THEY TRIED TO PUSH INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE CWA             
AS EVIDENCED BY A 01Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW...THEY HAVE BEEN                 
FALLING APART. ANOTHER REPRESENTATION OF THE DRY AIR IS WITH THE                
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S F INLAND OVER THE            
EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. SE WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE               
SITUATED OVER FAR WESTERN QUEBEC IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE HOLDING DRY              
AIR INTO THE CWA. THE SECOND SHRTWV OVER NW MN/FAR WRN ONTARIO IS               
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR               
NORTHERN MN INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. TO THE SW...STRONGER CONVECTION               
STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH SW WI...EASTERN IOWA AND NE              
MO...AIDED BY THE SW MN SHRTWV AND STRONG 850 THETA-E ADVECTION                 
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG             
I-80.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK TO                  
ALLEVIATE THE CURRENT DROUGHT.                                                  
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL PUSH EAST TODAY DUE TO THE                
SHRTWVS OVER MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN ONTARIO LIFTING NORTHEAST.               
SHRTWV OF MOST INTEREST TO BRING POSSIBLE PCPN TO THE CWA IS THE ONE            
OVER SW MN. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...13 KM RUC AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS            
SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED                  
PCPN...BRINGING IT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WEST HALF OF            
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE TOO SINCE THE 850MB                 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO VEER FROM THE CURRENT SE              
TOWARDS THE SW...ALLOWING THE AIR TO MOISTEN. REMOVED THE LIKELY                
WORDING BECAUSE OF CONCERN OF LINGERING DRY AIR...BUT 50 POPS FOR               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WILL REMAIN.                     
HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT SCENARIO EXISTS FOR THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE               
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS REMAIN SE THROUGH THE DAY...                   
HOLDING DRY AIR IN. THUS HAVE NO PCPN FORECAST EAST OF MARQUETTE AND            
ESCANABA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON             
BOTH HOW FAR EASTWARD THE CURRENT MVFR DECK ACROSS MN AND WI MAKES              
IT...ALONG WITH ANY CONVECTION SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD.              
WITH THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS VEERING OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA...WOULD IMAGINE THAT THE MVFR DECK SHOULD MOVE IN...WITH             
CEILINGS RISING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SE WINDS                 
HOLDING OVER THE EAST HALF SUGGESTS THAT ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS            
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OF CONCERN...THUS WARMEST READINGS                   
EXPECTED THERE (MID 70S).                                                       
TONIGHT...SW MN SHRTWV SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA AT 00Z WED.               
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN SW...THIS SHRTWV SHOULD                   
RAPIDLY HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY                 
CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST                     
PROBABILITY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                     
06Z...MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW THE            
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80 BEING LIFTED                    
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY SO IN THE 00Z GFS CASE WHERE CONVECTIVE              
FEEDBACK IS PRESENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY END UP BRUSHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES AFTER              
06Z. THUS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE PRESENT IN THAT AREA. WITH PLENTY OF             
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...NOT EXPECTING LOWS              
TO DROP TOO MUCH. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS SEEMED REASONABLE.                     
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE                      
WESTERLY...COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT                  
CONVECTION SHOULD HELP PUSH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH                
AGAIN TOWARDS MKE AND DTX. THUS...ANY PCPN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN                  
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE MODELS            
SHOW A LINGERING NORTH TO SOUTH TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.. THIS              
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY               
WITH THE INLAND AREAS WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH                
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 14-16C. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES AND              
SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY               
INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHOWN BY THE REGIONAL                
CANADIAN AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE                     
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY SHOULD END BY 00Z.                                      
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER ON A SCENARIO            
FOR SOME DECENT RAINS FOR THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ON THU. UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK TO THE SW IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING               
INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...                
MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TX             
GETTING PICKED UP AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA.            
IF THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...THE BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW            
SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR MKE AND DTX TO LIFT BACK                 
NORTH TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL             
LOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH               
THEN MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON THU. HIGH PRECIPITABLE             
WATER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV (1.5 TO 2 INCHES) COMBINED              
WITH DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING (90-110 KT JET MAX OVER NE                
ONTARIO PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA) WOULD                   
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE GFS AND                
UKMET PRODUCE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE QPF. THE NAM DOES TOO...BUT JUST              
FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...ON THU HAVE INCLUDED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE            
CWA...AND RAISED THEM TO 40 FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST. IF FUTURE RUNS            
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME SCENARIO...RAISING TO LIKELY ALONG WITH               
INCREASING QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS FOR            
BOTH WED NIGHT AND THU SEEM REASONABLE.                                         
BEYOND THU...WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE                   
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHRTWV. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKE                
POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT FOR FRI IF CURRENT                 
TRENDS FROM THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN            
FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. LOWS            
MAY GET CHILLY SAT NIGHT WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER MINIMUM COMING               
ACROSS AND LIGHT WINDS. COOP GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW OF 43 FOR                     
CHAMPION. ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK                 
AFTER SAT NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE              
HIGH.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ANOTHER NOT SO GOOD DAY FOR THE SLEEPER LAKE FIRE IS PLANNED TODAY.             
GIVEN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S...DEWPOINTS WILL DROP AT             
LEAST INTO THE LOW 50S...RESULTING IN MIN RHS BETWEEN 40-45                     
PERCENT. THESE ARE 10 PERCENT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT 10-METER              
ESE WINDS OF 15 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 KT AS INDICATED             
BY THE 13 KM RUC WILL PUSH THE FIRE TOWARDS COUNTY ROAD 407.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ONCE AGAIN...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHEN MVFR CLOUD DECK            
WILL ADVANCE E TO KCMX/KSAW. SO FAR TONIGHT...DRY LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW             
HAS REMAINED VERY EFFECTIVE AT PREVENTING MVFR CIGS OVER FAR WRN                
UPPER MI AND NW WI FROM EDGING E. HAVE THUS AGAIN OPTED TO DELAY                
MVFR CLOUD ARRIVAL FROM PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND                   
PERSISTENT DRY FLOW FROM THE SE (MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE DURING               
THE MID TO LATE MORNING TUE). PLENTY OF LOW END MVFR AND IFR CIGS               
DOMINATE LARGE PORTIONS OF WI AND MN. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE                 
SUGGESTS SFC TROF THAT WAS EXPECTED TO REACH UPPER MI TUE MAY                   
DISSIPATE...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR                
FROM THE SE TO CONTINUE. SO...CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING HAS ALSO            
DECREASED. WHILE SOME -SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA            
OCCURRING AT EITHER SITE IS LOW ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION FROM FCST.               
STILL BELIEVE SOME OF THE LWR MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE.                
IF DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA DOES OCCUR AT SOME POINT TUE...IFR CIGS              
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY               
IN FOG TAKING SHAPE TUE EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY AND A            
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN A                 
SE WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL               
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT WHEN A TROUGH APPROACHES. LOOK FOR                 
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF            
THE PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TEMPORARILY ON FRIDAY. NO GALES FORESEEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...AJ                                                    
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...MICHELS                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
115 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA OVER THE W AND SW OVERNIGHT.               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF             
NOTE UPSTREAM. FIRST IS OVER WRN WI AND THE SECOND EXTENDS FROM SRN             
SASKATCHEWAN TO ERN ND. SHORTWAVE OVER WRN WI HAS TRIGGERED SCT                 
SHRA/TSRA IN WI WITH THUNDER AS CLOSE AS ABOUT 35 MILES S OF KIWD.              
HOWEVER...PCPN HAS YET TO ACTUALLY REACH UPPER MI...AND RADAR TRENDS            
THIS EVENING SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE S               
WITH TIME WHILE THE NRN PORTION DISSIPATES. NET RESULT IS A SE                  
MOTION. GUESS THAT`S NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE DROUGHT PATTERN THAT                 
DOMINATES THE FCST AREA.                                                        
SINCE WI SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED TO WEAKEN BY ALL GUIDANCE...                    
INCLUDING 00Z RUC...AS IT HEADS E AND SINCE A PERSISTENT E TO SE                
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF DRY AIR...DOUBT THAT PCPN WILL MAKE                
MUCH PROGRESS INTO FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER               
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME PCPN GIVEN BETTER               
MOISTURE DEPTH INDICATED BY 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. EVENING RADAR TRENDS             
ALSO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN             
TO ERN ND MAY SUPPORT SOME SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE            
IN THE NIGHT. SO...FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ALONG THE             
WI BORDER AREAS AND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP THE REST OF               
THE FCST AREA DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF                   
INSTABILITY IN UPPER MI AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING...WILL                  
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT)...                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                 
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS             
OF THE CWA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CMX TO SAW SITES.              
UNDER THE DENSE LOWER CLOUDS...MORNING DRIZZLE WAS NOTICED ON THE               
RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS                     
PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO DRY UP QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
AM CONTINUING TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF OUR NEXT WEATHER                      
MAKER...IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN                               
SASKATCHEWAN...SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN                
MANITOBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                              
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE             
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE                 
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY            
FOR TUESDAY.  THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED DOWN THE INCOMING TROUGH/COLD              
FRONT.  FOLLOWING SUIT THE 12Z GFS HAS DONE SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT             
STILL NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE NAM.  BOTH HAVE LINED UP CLOSER TO MY            
INITIAL THINKING...WHICH WAS A CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING                     
SETUP...DROUGHT EQUALS DROUGHT.                                                 
THEREFORE...WAS THINKING THAT THE WESTERN CWA WOULD ONCE AGAIN                  
RECEIVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE            
EAST WILL BE LUCKY TO GET MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OUT OF THIS              
SYSTEM.  SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...A SPLITTING OF THE                       
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE WESTERN               
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY JUST WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                       
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                     
FOR TUE NIGHT...TRIMMED BACK POPS WITH PWATS DROPPING AFTER 00Z                 
WED...AND INCREASED STABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.                 
LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW HAS ONLY THE SINGLE BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING               
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA...AND HAS THINGS CLEARING OUR OF THE                 
CENTRAL BY 00Z WED AND OUT OF THE FAR EAST BY 06Z. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH             
TRY TO BRING UP A SECOND PRECIP LOBE AFTER 06Z...H85 THETA E RIDGE              
CONTINUES TO SET UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA AND OVER SOUTHERN             
WI WITH ENERGY FROM FIRST SHORTWAVE TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF               
THE CWFA AND THE SECOND RIPPLING THROUGH THE KGRB AREA AROUND 12Z               
WED. MUCH LIKE THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL                     
WEEKS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MISSES UPPER MI.                                 
ON WED AND WED NIGHT...DIRTY LITTLE SHORTWWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CWFA               
AND KEEPS THE PICTURE MUDDLED FOR PRECIP CHANCES. Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE AGAIN LOOKS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWFA AND THE              
JET DYNAMICS HIT BEST OVER ONTARIO. BY THU...BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY              
AGAIN BECOMES FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE                
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE                   
CURRENT WX GRID DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO WILL ESSENTIALLY                
LEAVE THIS UNTOUCHED. ON FRI...LOLLYGAGGING FRONT TO THE SE OF THE              
CWFA...AND THEN ADVANCING SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL             
KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SE CWFA FOR THE TIMEFRAME...BUT KEEP THE            
NORTHERN PORTIONS DRY.                                                          
FOR SAT...IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z GEFS...THINGS LOOK GOOD FOR THE                
OPEN HOUSE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR                     
SOLUTIONS WITH COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 00Z FRI. DRIER AIR               
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE                   
NORTH...SAVE FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. A SECOND             
SYSTEM EXTENDING UP FROM THE PLAINS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA ON SAT...DEBATED WHETHER TO ADD                
POPS...BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY ATTM GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH            
SYSTEM WILL BE.                                                                 
FOR SUN AND MON...MORE UNCERTAINLY CURRENTLY EXISTS WITH MODELS                 
DIVERGING BETWEEN TROUGHINESS AND RIDGINESS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION            
OF THE CONUS...WITH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS POINTING TOWARD A FAIRLY                 
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EATERN CONUS AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTM...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY              
WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ONCE AGAIN...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHEN MVFR CLOUD DECK            
WILL ADVANCE E TO KCMX/KSAW. SO FAR TONIGHT...DRY LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW             
HAS REMAINED VERY EFFECTIVE AT PREVENTING MVFR CIGS OVER FAR WRN                
UPPER MI AND NW WI FROM EDGING E. HAVE THUS AGAIN OPTED TO DELAY                
MVFR CLOUD ARRIVAL FROM PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND                   
PERSISTENT DRY FLOW FROM THE SE (MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE DURING               
THE MID TO LATE MORNING TUE). PLENTY OF LOW END MVFR AND IFR CIGS               
DOMINATE LARGE PORTIONS OF WI AND MN. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE                 
SUGGESTS SFC TROF THAT WAS EXPECTED TO REACH UPPER MI TUE MAY                   
DISSIPATE...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR                
FROM THE SE TO CONTINUE. SO...CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING HAS ALSO            
DECREASED. WHILE SOME -SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA            
OCCURRING AT EITHER SITE IS LOW ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION FROM FCST.               
STILL BELIEVE SOME OF THE LWR MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE.                
IF DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA DOES OCCUR AT SOME POINT TUE...IFR CIGS              
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY               
IN FOG TAKING SHAPE TUE EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY AND A            
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN AN                
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH              
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
TUE...BUT REMAIN AS HIGH AS 25 KT ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL                
LATE TUE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PORTION OF            
THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR             
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT                      
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON TEMPORARILY ON            
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF/KC                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
315 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AND STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST               
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT AND DRY                 
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE FIRST POINT OF CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LOW STRATUS... THE                  
RESIDUAL STABLE POOL PRODUCED BY EARLIER VA CONVECTION... WHICH HAS             
BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SURGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER              
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS              
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED IN THE LAST HOUR... AND THE LATEST RUC AND               
SREF TAKE THIS BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF RDU BEFORE MIXING OUT THE LOW             
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THIS EVOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO              
WITH INITIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER IN THE BORDER COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY                
QUICKLY INCREASING SUNSHINE.                                                    
THE SECOND POINT OF CONCERN ARE TODAY`S HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.            
WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AS             
WE SAW YESTERDAY AND WITH SIMILAR THICKNESSES AND MINIMAL                       
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS... HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE                
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S... 98-102... CLOSE TO THE RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE             
SECTION BELOW). WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN AFTERNOON PLUNGE OF THE                   
DEWPOINTS... ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95. THE 00Z UPPER AIR DATA                    
INDICATES NO ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH 925-850 MB... AND                 
TAKING CURRENT DEWPOINTS ALOFT DOWN THE MIXING RATIO YIELDS VALUES              
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS HEAT                 
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER... SINCE THIS IS             
THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND WE`RE NOT                  
DROPPING MUCH AT ALL AT NIGHT... WILL MENTION THE THREAT POSED BY               
THE HEAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                      
AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST... THE CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS VERY              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR TONIGHT LOOK TO BE                
IMPROVING. IF THE MORNING STRATUS TAKES LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO BURN            
OFF... IT MAY SET OFF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH A             
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX... CURRENTLY OVER THE KY/IN BORDER                  
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COULD TRACK. THE NAM AND GFS                
DROP THIS WAVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NC THIS EVENING... AND THERE SHOULD            
BE ENOUGH EVENING DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR                  
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A GOOD SHOT AT BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG OF               
CAPE. GFS FORECAST TOTAL TOTALS IN THIS AREA EXCEED 50... THE                   
K-INDEX EXCEEDS 40... AND N-CAPE CLIMBS ABOVE 0.15. DEEP LAYER SHEAR            
ISN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER... AROUND 20-25 KTS. WILL GO WITH 20-28%                
STORM CHANCES VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z... BEST OVER THE             
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC... TRAILING OFF WELL               
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS 72-77. -GIH                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DROP A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL NC                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE... HOWEVER THE              
NAM IS MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT HOLDING THE STABLE POOL OVER THE                
NORTHEAST CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT FIRST GLANCE THIS LOOKS                   
IMPLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR... HOWEVER THIS AIR MASS IS            
INDEED PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES... AND IN                 
LOOKING AT THE TENACITY OF THE CURRENT VA STRATUS... AND WITH THE               
FACT THAT THE NAM HAS SHOWN THIS STABLE NOSE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO                
THURSDAY FOR THREE STRAIGHT RUNS... IT MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. HAVE              
TRIMMED BACK HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER               
90S... RANGING TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE            
OUT POPS FOR NOW WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND            
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 68 NORTHEAST TO 75               
SOUTH... AND WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY                   
MORNING. HIGHS THURSDAY 94-99... ALTHOUGH IF THE NAM PERSISTS IN                
SHOWING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES... NEARLY 1400 M... IN THE             
FAR NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY... WILL NEED TO CUT BACK THESE HIGHS                 
FURTHER. -GIH                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER NC FRIDAY... AND CONTINUED HOT              
AND DRY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS              
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER NC FRIDAY... AND HAVE               
DISCOUNTED THIS PRECIP. A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS             
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH               
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC REMAINS FLAT TO ANTICYCLONIC INTO SUNDAY.            
MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLIES APPEAR VERY SPURIOUS AND                  
CANNOT BE TRUSTED... SO EVEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS BROAD AND                
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WEAKER ON THE 00Z/21 GFS AND 12Z/20 ECMWF AS             
COMPARED TO THE 18Z/20 GFS) AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...                     
PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR FORCING FEATURE IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.                
WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED LATE DAY POPS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE                 
MEDIUM RANGE... WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT WITHIN THE REALM OF              
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM SATURDAY             
THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...              
AS THICKNESSES SUGGEST THEY SHOULD HOLD ABOUT 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE              
NORMAL. -GIH                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOUTHWARD SURGE OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH            
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY               
SLOWED DOWN TO NEARLY A HALT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF            
THE FORECAST. HENDERSON IS REPORTING A BROKEN CEILING AT 800                    
FT...BUT OTHERWISE A STEADY SW WIND FLOW OF 4 TO 7 KTS SHOULD KEEP              
THE LOW CLOUDS AT BAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF                   
VIRGINIA.                                                                       
A STRONG VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WESTERLY FLOW                
ALOFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF               
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY 21Z IN THE WEST...SPREADING SOUTHEAST             
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS               
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT SUPPORT...BUT             
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE.                                    
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS DEEP MIXING              
OCCURS. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 15-25KTS...SO            
GUSTS OF UP TO 20KTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                                    
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE            
EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE WITH PREDAWN                       
STRATUS/FOG AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR              
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. -CBL                  
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                             
RDU-                                                                            
AUG 21: 101 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 22: 101 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 23: 103 IN 2002                                                             
AUG 24: 100 IN 2002                                                             
GSO-                                                                            
AUG 21: 100 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 22: 100 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 23: 99 IN 1983                                                              
AUG 24: 98 IN 1968                                                              
THE MODERATE AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ARE NOT               
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE 7 DAY               
FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS NO APPARENT WEATHER FEATURE TO SUPPORT                
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS OF AUGUST 20TH...THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL             
AT GSO AND RDU IS 0.34" AND 0.26" RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN             
SIGNIFICANT AUGUST RAINFALL DEFICITS LEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF              
AUGUST AND A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST AUGUSTS ON            
RECORD.                                                                         
LISTED BELOW IS THE DRIEST AUGUST AT GSO AND RDU ON                             
RECORD.                                                                         
TOP 5 DRIEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD.                                                 
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1928)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH                     
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT... IF WE EXPERIENCE NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH RDU WOULD BREAK THE                 
RECORD FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD... AND GSO WOULD FALL A                 
TENTH OF A DEGREE SHORT OF THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD. HOWEVER...             
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE                   
NORMAL. THUS... THE RECORDS LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO FALL.                    
THE CURRENT MEAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT RDU AND GSO AS OF AUGUST                
20TH IS 84.4F AND 83.6F RESPECTIVELY.                                           
TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD.                        
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...CBL                                                                  
CLIMATE...CBL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN                
OHIO TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE ACROSS              
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH OF THESE                    
FEATURES WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION                    
TODAY. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR                
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO                 
THE OHIO VALLEY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS BEEN IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL FOR LAST                 
SVRL HOURS AS FRNTL BNDRY HAS RETURNED BACK TO THE NORTH.                       
PERSISTENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING INVOF BNDRY FROM NEAR                  
KFWA EAST THRU KAOH AND KMFD. WITHIN THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...1-3              
INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE LATE LAST EVNG. UNDER MSTLY CLDY                        
SKIES...TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ERLY THIS MRNG. WILL BE DROPPING               
FLOOD WATCH WITH ZONE FCST ISSUANCE.                                            
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THE SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG BNDRY              
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF FCST AREA IN NORTH CNTRL OH                
THIS MRNG. REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER LWR               
OH VLY. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACRS SRN INDIANA AND WRN KY IN                 
THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH 40-45KT 850 LLJ FEEDING DVLPMNT. 06Z RUC                
INDCG LLJ WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA THIS MRNG WITH LO              
LVL FORCING BECOMG LESS FAVORABLE AS ERIN REMNANTS SHIFT EAST.                  
HAVE EMPLOYED 50 POPS FOR MOST OF THE MRNG AS ACTIVITY LKLY TO                  
REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. PWATS REMAIN BTWN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES                 
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ERIN REMNANTS PASS.                        
SUBSIDENCE DVLPS ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF                    
REMNANTS OF ERIN AND AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE ALONG FRNTL BNDRY IN               
NRN IN/OH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS ACRS MUCH OF THE                
FCST AREA. DESPITE MLCAPES CLIMBING TO BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG...LACK               
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ISOLD TO              
WDLY SCT IN NATURE. ONE QUESTION MARK SURROUNDS THE MID LVL S/WV                
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER IOWA AIDING LARGE (BUT WEAKENING) TSTM                   
COMPLEX. NONE OF THE 00Z MODELS HANDLED THIS FEATURE PARTICULARLY               
WELL. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THIS S/WV WILL RIDE ALONG BNDRY                  
TODAY AND BE LOCATED ACRS NRN IN/OH BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COULD               
POTENTIALLY FUEL ADDL TSTM DVLPMNT FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVNG ACRS              
FAR NRN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED                   
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT              
ACRS NRN 1/3 FCST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...SUPPRESSED MID LVL RIDGE                
WILL BEGIN EXPANDING BACK NORTH INTO OH VLY WITH MID LVL HGT                    
RISES. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS A RESULT WITH NO APPRECIABLE                    
FORCING AND DISTANCE FROM FRNTL BNDRY IN NRN IN/OH.                             
TEMPS...TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PCPN               
AND HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE THIS MRNG AND INTO THE ERLY AFTN.              
HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR MAV GUID IN NRN FCST AREA...WITH MANY                      
LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE L/M80S. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE GONE ABV                  
TEMP GUID WITH L90S EXPECTED. EVEN WITH SCT TSTMS THIS MRNG ASSOCD              
WITH ERIN REMNANTS...MANY LOCATIONS (KCVG INCLUDED) SHOULD HAVE NO              
PROBLEM REACHING 90 DEG YET AGAIN. TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUID              
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
THE SHORT TERM CAN BE SUMMED UP IN ONE WORD...HOT. MID LVL HGT                  
RISES WILL PERSIST FOR WED AND THURS WITH THE RIDGE RETURNING                   
INTO THE OH VLY. THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE                   
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR WITHIN THE              
MID LVLS WILL HELP REINTRODUCE A MID LVL CAP AND WITH NOT MUCH IN               
WAY OF ANY MID/UPR LVL FORCING. AVAIL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTN               
AND EVNG WILL BE MAIN CATALYST FOR ISOLD TSTMS WED AND THURS. ISOLD             
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WED AND THU...PARTICULARLY ACRS NRN 1/2             
FCST AREA. RIDGE SHOULD GAIN AN EVEN GREATER FOOTHOLD THURS AS                  
FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO LWR MICHIGAN.                             
WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE M/U60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGHOUT THE                 
PERIOD...OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FCST HEAT INDICES                  
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABV 100 DEG ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA WED AND                   
THURS. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...WILL BE ISSUING AN EXCESSIVE                  
HEAT WATCH FOR HAMILTON CO AND THE CINCY METRO BEGINNING WED AND                
CONTINUING THRU FRI. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL NEED TO BE                   
UPGRADED TO A HEAT WARNING. 100+ HEAT INDICES OVER REMAINDER OF                 
SRN FCST AREA WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HEAT ADV. AS THE INITIAL                
EFFECTS WILL NOT BE EXPERIENCED UNTIL WED AFTN (PERIOD 3)...WILL                
HOLD OFF ON ADV HEADLINES ATTM. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER                 
HEAT HEADLINES FOR DAY METRO AS WELL.                                           
TEMPS...HAVE TRENDED NEAR OR ABV MAV GUID FOR HIGHS BOTH WED AND                
THURS. CVG METRO SAW VIRTUALLY NO RAIN MON/MON EVNG...AND WILL                  
LKLY ONLY SEE SPOTTY RAIN THIS MRNG AS REMNANTS OF ERIN PASS TO                 
SOUTH ACRS CNTRL KY. CONSIDERING HOW EASILY KCVG HAS BEEN ABLE TO               
SURPASS GUID ON HIGHS OVER LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT IT WILL DO SO                
AGAIN. TAKING THAT INTO ACCOUNT AS WELL AS FCST OF 850 TEMPS AT                 
22-23C BY THURS...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEG FROM PREV FCST.                
WILL CLIMB INTO M/U90S BY THURS AND MAY VERY WELL FLIRT WITH 100                
DEG AGAIN THURS AFTN. KCVG CONTINUES TO WORK ON ITS WARMEST AUG ON              
RECORD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS REGION FRI...WITH 850 TEMPS MAXING AT                    
23-24C. UNDER MSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THAT WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS FRI AFTN             
IN THE U90S TO POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 DEG.                                        
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME SHORT                 
WAVE ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO               
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER                
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SO WILL              
GO AHEAD AND LINGER SOME LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.                               
NAM-WRF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BUILDING RIDGE UP INTO OUR AREA            
AND AS A RESULT IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH ITS THERMAL                         
FIELDS/GUIDANCE TEMPS. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GFS             
BASED ON THE WARMER BIAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND TO MAINTAIN            
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR ONGOING FORECAST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
MAIN FCST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPING LIFR CIGS AT                   
KDAY...KILN...KCMH AND KLCK. RECENT RAINFALL AT THESE LOCATIONS                 
HAVE SATURATED THE AIRMASS. WITH WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT...THESE SITES               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH MIST.              
AS FOR KCVG AND KLUK...THEY BARELY RECEIVED ANY PCPN AND THUS                   
THEIR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THEY WILL                         
EXPERIENCE...HOWEVER...SOME MINOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MIST.                    
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALL AFFECTED                
AFOREMENTIONED SITES SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO VFR CIGS BY 18Z.                     
THEREAFTER...WEAK MID LVL RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY POP UP                          
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE                
DAY.  THUS...WILL NOT MENTION AT TAFS.                                          
FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN APCHING S/WV                  
MAY RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACRS THE              
WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. CHC/S ARE STILL AT 30 PERCENT AND THUS               
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.                                                     
OUTLOOK...BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE                 
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ077.                                                   
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...RYAN/LOTT                                                           
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STATIONARY FRONT...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...WILL            
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS WEEK. A COLD              
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY               
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FNTL BNDRY DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VLY EWD TO               
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HVY                    
RAINFALL OVR PARTS OF CENTRAL PA THRU EARLY AFTN. PW VALUES SOME                
2-3 STD ABV NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM               
ERIN WILL OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY...PRODUCING POTENTIALLY FLOODING                
RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LATEST RADAR DATA                  
SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN FALLING FROM NORTHERN OHIO                 
INTO WESTERN PA...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION                
ON THE NOSE OF 40KT WSWLY LOW LVL JET. RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO                     
DRIZZLE BY LATE TDY...AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE                
EASTERN LAKES WILL PUSH REMNANTS OF ERIN EAST OF THE REGION BY                  
LATE AFTN.                                                                      
OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM NOT VERIFYING WELL IN THE FIRST 6HRS...PLACING              
HEAVIEST RAIN TOO FAR NORTH. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE               
SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO LOW LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA. MULTISENSOR PRECIP ESTIMATES SHOWS              
UP TO 2.5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL              
HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE ONLY PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING              
SO FAR. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THIS REGION COULD               
PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATER TDY. WILL EXTEND THE                    
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH THRU THE AFTN TO BETTER CORRELATE WITH THE                  
EXPECTED END OF SIG RAIN AND ALSO TO COLLABORATE WITH NEIGHBORING               
OFFICES.                                                                        
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMP TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TDY UNDER SOLID                
BLANKET OF LLVL SC. LLVL ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BANK                         
COOL...MOIST AIR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...RESULTING IN                   
HIGHS WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE MID                
LEVEL WESTERLIES TONIGHT AND WED...KEEPING CENTRAL PA CLOUDY AND                
COOL. BEST CHC FOR AFTN BREAKS IN THE STRATOCU...ALONG WITH SCT                 
PM TSRA...WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
DARKER AND GLOOMIER WEATHER GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END BY LATE                   
WEEK AS WE RETURN TO MORE OF A SUMMER LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN. WARM                
AND HUMID RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN                 
EDGE OF JET WILL KEEP MENTION OF DAILY SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN MUCH OF               
THE EXTENDED FORECAST - ESPECIALLY THU INTO FRI. WESTERLY FLOW AND              
LACK OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR               
IN PLACE FOR A WHILE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS WILL                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD. ON AND OFF SHOWERS ALONG                  
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE                 
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER CENTRAL PA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS WILL                 
BE MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER. SOME IMPROVEMENT               
TO VFR VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS               
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND                
DECREASES THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                            
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...CAUSED BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST                 
SFC WIND TOPPED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF 30-40 KTS AT 2 KFT AGL               
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.                                                           
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR                       
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS JUST NORTH OF              
PA. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF                
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP /SHRA AND TSRA/.              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS OF              
CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...RISES TO 3/4 BANKFULL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                 
THE FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA RIVER...AS WELL AS THE                     
YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT TODAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-                  
033>036-049-050-052-056>059-063>066.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD                                                           
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR                                                     
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER                                                      
HYDROLOGY...FITZGERALD                                                          
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
930 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC              
REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT.           
SOME LIGHT BATCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL                  
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST                 
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT                  
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY              
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE HUMID               
WEATHER.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FOG WITHIN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT IS SLOWLY LIFTING INTO A BROKEN                 
STRATUS DECK.  HOWEVER...UPSTREAM MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST               
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.  THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PRECIP             
AND CLOUD SHIELD FROM A BROKEN CI/CS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A SOLID OVERCAST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT               
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.  UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF                
SHOWERS WHICH IS CORRESPONDING TO MID LEVEL INCREASING FGEN                     
(CENTERED AROUND 850MB).  NUMERICAL FORECASTS FROM 06Z AND LATEST               
RUN OF THE RUC POINTS TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF THE RAIN             
FLIRTING WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY.  WILL ADJUST THE PRECIP               
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS BEFORE                  
EXPANDING THE RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL                 
STILL REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WITH MAINLY 60S                    
EXPECTED (NORMAL HIGH AROUND 80F).                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL                 
WEAKEN AS UPPER ENERGY EXITS AND THERMAL GRADIENT LOOSENS A BIT.                
ANY LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS WILL END DURING THE EVENING.                   
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL               
FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES                      
WEDNESDAY NUDGING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN WARMER AREAS.                           
CONSIDERABLE CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                      
THURSDAY. FORECASTED UPPER JET STRUCTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY                   
ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION...BUT INCREASINGLY WARM AND               
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...PERHAPS INCREASING                  
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL TYPE PRECIPITATION. NOT TOUCHING MUCH BEYOND                
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. AS CURRENT FORECAST                           
STANDS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                      
NIGHT...MOVING OUT EARLY THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS WHEN THE NOTICEABLE              
WARMING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...WITH MORE SUN AND TEMPERATURES              
REACHING 80 OR BETTER.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND                             
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMING. WEST TO              
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH                
WELL INTO THE 80S. STILL A DECENT CONSENSUS FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM                
LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                  
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE JUST A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING AS               
UPPER FLOW REMAINS RATHER FLAT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND THE                     
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. NEARLY CALM                 
WINDS SHOULD BECOME E/SE...AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT THIS                         
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. TERMINAL                    
SPECIFICS ARE LISTED BELOW.                                                     
KGFL...AREAS OF IFR SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN                       
12Z-14Z/TUE...WITH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ADDITIONAL                   
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z/WED...BUT INCREASING MID               
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THWART FOG DEVELOPMENT.                                        
KALB...AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND THEN            
VFR BETWEEN 14Z-16Z/TUE...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY            
AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW/MID                 
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/EARLY WED AM.               
KPOU...OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST            
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A             
FEW PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR CIGS...DURING ANY                  
PERIODS OF STEADIER RAINFALL.                                                   
WED...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.                                       
THUR...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.                                      
FRI...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.                                       
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RIVER FLOWS                
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS             
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY THROUGH EARLY            
THIS EVENING WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. RIVER              
LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW                      
DAYS...EXCEPT WHERE AFFECTED BY RESERVOIR RELEASES AND/OR POWER                 
GENERATION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
AVIATION...KL/BGM                                                               
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE AREA.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA WITH A MEAN LAYER RIDGE 1000-500 MB FROM NRN LA TO ERN            
GA AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC PER RUC ANALYSIS. DRY AIR SHOWS UP            
WELL IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW             
ABOUT 750 MB. JAX SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT OF 1.3 INCHES AND WARMING             
BELOW 800 MB FROM 24 HRS AGO INDICATING A HOTTER DAY IN STORE THAN              
MONDAY. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT MADE TO TEMPS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S                   
EXPECTED AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 106 TO               
109. A RECORD HIGH (MOSTLY LIKELY A TIE) IS POSSIBLE TODAY AT SITES             
BELOW. ACCORDING TO MODEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CU FIELD WILL BE MOSTLY IN       
THE FEW-SCT RANGE SO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS SHOULD SUFFICE.                         
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES                                                        
                 8/21            8/22                                           
ALMA          100 IN 1968     100 IN 1968                                       
ST. SIMONS     98 IN 1983      97 IN 1966                                       
GAINESVILLE    98 IN 1954      96 IN 1966                                       
JACKSONVILLE  101 IN 1901     100 IN 1900                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. PER NAM GUIDANCE A BRIEF CIG NEAR             
3 KFT POSSIBLE S OF GNV 18Z-00Z.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A S-SE FLOW AROUND 10 KT AT THIS TIME. SEAS ARE IN SOLID              
3-4 FT RANGE PER BUOYS. SWELLS OF ABOUT 2.5 TO 3 FT WITH PERIODS OF             
ABOUT 10 SECONDS ARE DOMINATING THE SEA STATE. WITH SEA BREEZE                  
KICKING IN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY. RIP            
CURRENT RISK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK               
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY                                                                          
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1108 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN ISSUES COVERED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER                        
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...AND               
IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE THROUGH ENOUGH FOR              
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN TEMPS TO OCCUR. ALSO HAVE LOWERED PRECIP                   
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOME...SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE                    
RUC SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY                 
THERE AS THE THE AMOUNT OF HEATING FOR SOLID CONVECTION TO                      
FIRE...MAY END UP BEING MORE SHOWERS. BOUNDARY STILL SITS ACROSS                
THE FORECAST AREA SO PRECIP IS STILL A CONCERN BUT WITH LITTLE                  
FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING...MORE SO WELL TO THE EAST AND WEAKENED LOW              
LEVEL JET WHICH IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT BELIEVE                  
THAT THE LOWERING OF POP IS JUSTIFIED. PWATS ARE STILL VERY                     
HIGH...SO MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO               
DEVELOP...BUT THE EFFECTS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                 
VERY COMPLEX SETUP NEXT 24 HOURS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT...MAINLY             
IN A NARROW BAND FROM MIAMI/WABASH COUNTY EAST INTO PART OF NW OHIO.            
SOME AREAS JUST TONIGHT HAVE PICKED UP ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF                 
RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. SEE RECENT SPENES FOR               
FLOODING TRENDS IN THIS AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE THINGS HANDLED WITH                
AREAL FLOOD WARNING IN THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO IN TERMS OF                      
GRIDS/ZONES WILL COVER WITH PRE-1ST PERIOD WORDING. ACTIVITY SHOULD             
CALM AROUND 12Z AS FOCUS THEN TURNS TO COMPLEX WORKING ACROSS                   
EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS. OVERALL COMPLEX WAS MORE IMPRESSIVE A              
FEW HOURS AGO WITH A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE.               
HOWEVER AS THE COLD POOL HAS LOST ITS PUNCH CONVECTION HAD                      
DIMINISHED BUT STRATIFORM AREA STILL HOLDING ON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD             
BRING THIS AREA IN THIS MORNING WORKING EAST WITH TIME INTO THIS                
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS OF NO USE AS THEY ARE NOT EVEN PICKING UP ON                 
THESE FEATURES. 4 KM WRF HAS SOME SIGNALS WITH CONVECTION IN IOWA               
AROUND 6Z BUT A BIT TOO SLOW/FAR WEST. THEN JUST STALLS THE COMPLEX             
OUT BY 12Z WHICH IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO OCCURRING. THINK AT LEAST SOME            
RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IN THIS AM SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
IN THE WEST THIS AM. AND THEN SCT WEST/LIKELY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.              
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY WARRANT HOLDING OFF ON TOO              
MANY MORE CHANGES. WITH PWATS AROUND 2" AND SLOWER OVERALL                      
FLOW...VERY HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT. MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN                  
GRIDS/ZONES. IN TERMS OF HEADLINES...WITH WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS             
IN PLACE NOW FOR A FEW DAYS...REISSUING FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY                 
SERVE MUCH OVERALL PURPOSE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NO WATCH AND USE             
WARNINGS AS NEEDED.                                                             
TONIGHT...MODELS TRY TO TAKE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MI THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TODAY THAT BOUNDARY            
MAY STRUGGLE TO WORK NORTH. 4KM WRF REDEVELOPS CONVECTION DURING THE            
EVENING HOURS MUCH LIKE HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW NIGHTS. AM INCLINED TO            
GIVE IT A NOD...AND WOULD LIKE TO MAKE CHANGES BUT SINCE ENOUGH                 
ISSUES WITH 1ST PERIOD LET ALONE 2ND PERIOD WILL LEAVE TNGT FORECAST            
INTACT.                                                                         
TEMPS WILL HAVE A MASSIVE BUST POTENTIAL TODAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT              
POSSIBLE N TO S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S N TO LOW 80S             
SOUTH. ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW THEM TO CLIMB AND ALSO CREATE            
ADDITIONAL ISSUES IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND INCREASING HEAT                    
INDICES.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                       
UNSETTLED AND STORMY PATTN TO CONT UNTIL SAT.                                   
LTL CHG IN OVERALL FLAT WESTERLY FLW ALOFT W/STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY              
STRETCHED OUT ACRS THE MIDWEST. SFC WAVE OVR KS WILL CONT TO LIFT               
NEWD TWD LK HURON BY WED EVENING AND ALLOW SFC BNDRY TO MIX WELL NWD            
AND PLACE CWA SQUARELY WITHIN WHAT SHLD BE A VRY UNSTABLE WARM                  
SECTOR WED AFTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY FLOUNDERING                      
W/MESOSCALE DETAILS...MOST NOTABLY THE FAILURE OF CAPTURING MCS OVR             
ERN IA/NE MO THIS MORNING. SUSPICION AT THIS POINT IS RENEWED                   
MCS/MCV GENERATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE PLAINS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACRS             
IA AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE AREA BY AFTN. HWVR GIVEN ABUNDANT MSTR             
HERE AND CONTD LL WAA IN PLACE...CERTAINLY COULD SEE OTHER STORMS               
POP IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.                                                    
LTL CHG XPCD THU/THU NIGHT OTHER THEN A MORE DEFINED LARGE SCALE                
TRIGGER AS SECONDARY STRONGER FNTL WAVE KICKS NEWD INTO THE WRN                 
LAKES BY AFTN W/VRY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER               
GFS MOS TEMPS ARE RIDICULOUS AND DISCARDED IN FVR OF MORE PALATABLE             
MET NUMBERS AND SAME FOR FRI.                                                   
THIRD AND FINAL SFC WAVE TO KICK OUT SOMETIME FRI ALTHOUGH MED RANGE            
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUITE LARGE AND UNCERTAIN. CONSENSUS WOULD BRING                
CDFNT THROUGH CWA SOMETIME FRI NIGHT W/SFC RIDGING BLDG THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND AND A NEEDED DRYING OUT. WILL MAKE FEW CHGS TO GOING GRIDS              
WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE W/VFR                
XPCD TWD 18Z. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS MORNING IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVN            
REDVLPS AHD OF MCV OVR WRN IL ALG OUTFLW BNDRY APCHG WRN INDIANA                
BORDER. BTR SPRT ACRS THE SOUTH EARLY ON ESP W/SMALL CONVECTIVE                 
CLUSTER WEST OF KIKK WHICH MAY SURVIVE THE TRIP EASTWARD AND AFFECT             
THE KFWA TERMINAL TWD 16Z IF IT HOLDS. OTHER ISSUE IS IF/WHEN/WHERE             
CONVN DVLPS THIS AFTN. DOUBT STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY WILL MAKE MUCH               
PROGRESS NORTHWARD ESP GIVEN MERGER OF OUTFLW BNDRY COMING OUT OF IL.           
SFC WAVE EJECTING OUT OF KS AND RENEWED LL MASS FLUX THIS AFTN SHLD             
REFIRE STORMS AND WILL AT THIS POINT CARRY A CB MENTION IN THE LEAST.           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......SCHOTT                                                             
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM....FISHER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                     
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE              
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE              
FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. STILL FEEL MUCH              
OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST THE              
SOUTH SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.                  
FORECAST ALREADY OUT.  --JA                                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT):...                                              
PCPN POTENTIAL AND TEMPS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT                
TERM. REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL ACCELERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
FA TODAY. TRW/RW WILL ENTER NWRN PTNS OF FA ABOUT THE TIME THIS FCST            
IS ISSUED AND THEN AS ERIN STARTS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...THE PCPN             
THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA BY LATE MORNING             
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL GO WI 50 PCT POPS FOR A TIME               
WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST. NO             
MENTION OF PCPN TONIGHT AS PER CURRENT FCST.                                    
WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT VERY               
WARM HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY. THIS AGREES            
WELL WITH OUR CURRENT FCST AND THE PREFERRED MAV FCST TRENDS. --21              
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                   
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A FAST            
ZONAL FLOW WITH THE JET STREAK ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. ONE LOW            
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET STREAK             
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                 
CANADIAN PROVINCES. OF MORE DIRECT IMPORTANCE TO OUR AREA IS THE                
VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE 00Z            
THURS FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF UP TO 597DM ACROSS THE GULF STATES              
BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE                 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ALSO CENTER OVER THE              
GULF STATES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY            
WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES                    
APPROACHING 30 ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY MOVE BACK INTO            
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                            
EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THESE TWO DAYS. THE AXIS OF HIGHER                 
MOISTURE WILL LIE TO OUR NORTHWEST...STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                              
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                        
RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE                  
STORM TRACK ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT               
FROM KANSAS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO SAG              
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT.  EVENTUALLY THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL                    
APPROACH KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS             
BOUNDARY AND SO WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND             
TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS SLOWS DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE                       
FRONT...WHICH MAY STALL NEAR KENTUCKY SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS FOR               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS):...                                                        
THE REMNANTS OF ERIN CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE VERY NORTH AND WESTERN             
PORTIONS OF FA...OVERALL THE PCPN INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL              
AS THE LIGHTNING. OUR EXPERIMENTAL WRF AND THE LATEST RUC 40 STILL              
SHOW THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING OFF TO THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST                  
TODAY. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDS WITH TRW- EARLY FOR SDF             
AND FOR LEX A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE CLEARS              
OUR REGION...THE SFC PRESS GRAD WEAKENS EVEN MORE SO WITH THE LATEST            
06Z MODEL RUNS. SO WE WILL WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE GUSTY WINDS               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR PCPN TEMPO GROUPS GNRLY                
VFR CONDS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. --21                                  
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
644 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS):...                                                        
THE REMNANTS OF ERIN CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE VERY NORTH AND WESTERN             
PORTIONS OF FA...OVERALL THE PCPN INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL              
AS THE LIGHTNING. OUR EXPERIMENTAL WRF AND THE LATEST RUC 40 STILL              
SHOW THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING OFF TO THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST                  
TODAY. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDS WITH TRW- EARLY FOR SDF             
AND FOR LEX A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE CLEARS              
OUR REGION...THE SFC PRESS GRAD WEAKENS EVEN MORE SO WITH THE LATEST            
06Z MODEL RUNS. SO WE WILL WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE GUSTY WINDS               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR PCPN TEMPO GROUPS GNRLY                
VFR CONDS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. --21                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT):...                                             
PCPN POTENTIAL AND TEMPS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT                
TERM. REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL ACCELERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
FA TODAY. TRW/RW WILL ENTER NWRN PTNS OF FA ABOUT THE TIME THIS FCST            
IS ISSUED AND THEN AS ERIN STARTS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...THE PCPN             
THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA BY LATE MORNING             
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL GO WI 50 PCT POPS FOR A TIME               
WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST. NO             
MENTION OF PCPN TONIGHT AS PER CURRENT FCST.                                    
WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT VERY               
WARM HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY. THIS AGREES            
WELL WITH OUR CURRENT FCST AND THE PREFERRED MAV FCST TRENDS. --21              
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                   
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A FAST            
ZONAL FLOW WITH THE JET STREAK ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. ONE LOW            
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET STREAK             
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                 
CANADIAN PROVINCES. OF MORE DIRECT IMPORTANCE TO OUR AREA IS THE                
VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE 00Z            
THURS FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF UP TO 597DM ACROSS THE GULF STATES              
BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE                 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ALSO CENTER OVER THE              
GULF STATES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY            
WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES                    
APPROACHING 30 ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY MOVE BACK INTO            
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                            
EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THESE TWO DAYS. THE AXIS OF HIGHER                 
MOISTURE WILL LIE TO OUR NORTHWEST...STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                              
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                        
RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE                  
STORM TRACK ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT               
FROM KANSAS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO SAG              
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT.  EVENTUALLY THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL                    
APPROACH KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS             
BOUNDARY AND SO WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND             
TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS SLOWS DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE                       
FRONT...WHICH MAY STALL NEAR KENTUCKY SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS FOR               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED            
FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE OFF THE                 
TIDEWATER VA COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND              
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION AND RESULT IN                     
CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOW A THERMAL BOUNDARY NEAR AND ALONG THE            
NC/VA STATE LINE. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NC WERE IN             
THE LOWER 90S...WHILE TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL VA WERE            
IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF              
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOC/W THICK LOW STRATUS OVER CENTRAL VA. A               
SFC TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NC/VA...                     
STRETCHING WEST SOUTHWEST ROUGHLY FROM NORFOLK VA TO HICKORY NC.                
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.             
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX ASSOC/W THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIN WAS                 
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE                
SHOWS UP ON RAOB ANALYSIS...RUC H5 HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...AND IN WV               
IMAGERY WHICH CAN BE USED TO CLEARLY TRACE THIS FEATURE BACK OVER               
OK/MO AS ERIN`S REMNANTS.                                                       
WELL...THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP YESTERDAY AFT/EVE IN AREAS ADJACENT TO             
THE NC/VA DID NOT WORK OUT. CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN AND/OR             
ADVECTED INTO THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA YESTERDAY            
AFT/EVE...WHILE NOTHING FORMED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER             
WHERE THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND WARMER SFC TEMPS WERE. THE BEST              
EXPLANATION FOR THIS SEEMS TO BE THAT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING             
DROPPED SFC DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) THAT THE              
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WAS SEVERELY LIMITED...AND                      
SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WAS ABSENT.                                      
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THINGS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO                      
YESTERDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME               
GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE ASSOC/W THE                 
REMNANTS OF TS ERIN CROSSING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS             
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CURRENTLY FORCING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF            
KENTUCKY...AND THE 13Z RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC              
20-25/S VORT ADVECTING INTO W/SW VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NC BY 00Z               
THIS EVENING. GFS/NAM BUFR AND RUC40 FCST SOUNDINGS ALL SEEM TO SHOW            
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON                
PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.50-2.00" RANGE. IN FACT...THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING             
THIS MORNING HAD A 33F DEWPOINT AT 700MB...IN CONTRAST TO A 14F                 
DEWPOINT AT 700MB 12Z YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED            
TO CRASH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SOME            
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN               
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY             
WHERE THIS CUTOFF LINE OR GRADIENT WILL BE. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN              
THE LOWER 60S...ALL THE FCST MODELS MENTIONED SHOW AFTERNOON SFC                
BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH STEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE               
RATES UP TO 750-700 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER...THIS                
VALUE GOES UP AND IF DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...THIS VALUE GOES DOWN.                
THEREFORE...IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION            
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:                               
1)THE APPROACH OF TS ERIN`S REMNANTS INTO WESTERN NC/VA BY 00Z.                 
2)A WEST-EAST SFC TROUGH OVER VA/NC PROVIDING AND A STALLED                     
  THERMAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN VA PROVIDING SFC CONVERGENCE                     
3)MORE MOISTURE ALOFT (AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00")                
4)FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG                 
  EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.                                     
MITIGATING FACTORS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE            
VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS (SFC TO ~800MB) AND 30 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL                
FLOW WHICH COULD AID IN FURTHER DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.           
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN NORTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER                
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/VORT WHICH WILL CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER 00Z              
THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE                        
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE               
VA/NC PIEDMONT VIA 30KT MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT POPS LOOK              
MORE OR LESS OK WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND LOWER                  
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z...AND CONTINUING AFTER               
SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. THE SPC CURRENTLY                
HAS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC IN A SLIGHT RISK                 
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE               
RATES FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES...              
AND 30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY               
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.                          
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS THIS EVENING APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH                 
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104F RANGE GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS ARE                     
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST                       
LOCATIONS. ISOLATED AREAS IN THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE                
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER COULD POSSIBLY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE                  
105F FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH THE DURATION AND               
AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER INDICES ARE SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY              
WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DROP A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL NC                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE... HOWEVER THE              
NAM IS MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT HOLDING THE STABLE POOL OVER THE                
NORTHEAST CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT FIRST GLANCE THIS LOOKS                   
IMPLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR... HOWEVER THIS AIR MASS IS            
INDEED PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES... AND IN                 
LOOKING AT THE TENACITY OF THE CURRENT VA STRATUS... AND WITH THE               
FACT THAT THE NAM HAS SHOWN THIS STABLE NOSE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO                
THURSDAY FOR THREE STRAIGHT RUNS... IT MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. HAVE              
TRIMMED BACK HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER               
90S... RANGING TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE            
OUT POPS FOR NOW WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND            
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 68 NORTHEAST TO 75               
SOUTH... AND WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY                   
MORNING. HIGHS THURSDAY 94-99... ALTHOUGH IF THE NAM PERSISTS IN                
SHOWING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES... NEARLY 1400 M... IN THE             
FAR NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY... WILL NEED TO CUT BACK THESE HIGHS                 
FURTHER. -GIH                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER NC FRIDAY... AND CONTINUED HOT              
AND DRY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS              
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER NC FRIDAY... AND HAVE               
DISCOUNTED THIS PRECIP. A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS             
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH               
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC REMAINS FLAT TO ANTICYCLONIC INTO SUNDAY.            
MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLIES APPEAR VERY SPURIOUS AND                  
CANNOT BE TRUSTED... SO EVEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS BROAD AND                
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WEAKER ON THE 00Z/21 GFS AND 12Z/20 ECMWF AS             
COMPARED TO THE 18Z/20 GFS) AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...                     
PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR FORCING FEATURE IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.                
WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED LATE DAY POPS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE                 
MEDIUM RANGE... WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT WITHIN THE REALM OF              
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM SATURDAY             
THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...              
AS THICKNESSES SUGGEST THEY SHOULD HOLD ABOUT 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE              
NORMAL. -GIH                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOUTHWARD SURGE OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH            
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY               
SLOWED DOWN TO NEARLY A HALT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF            
THE FORECAST. HENDERSON IS REPORTING A BROKEN CEILING AT 800                    
FT...BUT OTHERWISE A STEADY SW WIND FLOW OF 4 TO 7 KTS SHOULD KEEP              
THE LOW CLOUDS AT BAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF                   
VIRGINIA.                                                                       
A STRONG VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WESTERLY FLOW                
ALOFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF               
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY 21Z IN THE WEST...SPREADING SOUTHEAST             
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS               
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT SUPPORT...BUT             
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE.                                    
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS DEEP MIXING              
OCCURS. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 15-25KTS...SO            
GUSTS OF UP TO 20KTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                                    
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE            
EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE WITH PREDAWN                       
STRATUS/FOG AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR              
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. -CBL                  
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                             
RDU-                                                                            
AUG 21: 101 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 22: 101 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 23: 103 IN 2002                                                             
AUG 24: 100 IN 2002                                                             
GSO-                                                                            
AUG 21: 100 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 22: 100 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 23: 99 IN 1983                                                              
AUG 24: 98 IN 1968                                                              
THE MODERATE AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ARE NOT               
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE 7 DAY               
FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS NO APPARENT WEATHER FEATURE TO SUPPORT                
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS OF AUGUST 20TH...THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL             
AT GSO AND RDU IS 0.34" AND 0.26" RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN             
SIGNIFICANT AUGUST RAINFALL DEFICITS LEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF              
AUGUST AND A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST AUGUSTS ON            
RECORD.                                                                         
LISTED BELOW IS THE DRIEST AUGUST AT GSO AND RDU ON                             
RECORD.                                                                         
TOP 5 DRIEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD.                                                 
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1928)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH                     
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT... IF WE EXPERIENCE NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH RDU WOULD BREAK THE                 
RECORD FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD... AND GSO WOULD FALL A                 
TENTH OF A DEGREE SHORT OF THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD. HOWEVER...             
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE                   
NORMAL. THUS... THE RECORDS LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO FALL.                    
THE CURRENT MEAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT RDU AND GSO AS OF AUGUST                
20TH IS 84.4F AND 83.6F RESPECTIVELY.                                           
TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD.                        
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...CBL                                                                  
CLIMATE...CBL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
PERSISTENT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOT                      
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NC THIS WEEK. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS                  
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC               
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH                        
THE WEAK FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
NO UPDATE PLANNED. HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS                 
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. READINGS LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES                   
COOLER THAN MAV BUT WE STILL ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE              
MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL QUICKLY APPROACH                   
ADVISORY LEVELS OF AROUND 105 DEGREES EARLY THIS                                
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DEEP MIXING               
DURING MAX HEATING ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DROP. USING THE TOP OF                 
THE MIXING LAYER SUPPORTS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S                
DEEP INLAND AND AROUND 70 IN THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THUS HEAT                 
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD.                 
ALONG THE COAST THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA "COOLED" DOWN               
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH                
MAX HEAT INDEX VALES IN THE LOW 100S.                                           
WHILE THE NAM/RUC MODELS LOOK OVERDONE ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH                   
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A WEAKENING                 
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE              
TONIGHT. EVEN THE WETTER NAM KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY SO I AM              
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RELIEF FROM OUR DRY CONDITIONS BUT I WILL HAVE               
TO CONSIDER ADDING A SMALL POP IN THE FORECAST AFTER THE NEXT                   
MODEL RUN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                     
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED MODEL AS THE NAM LOOKS TOO                  
AMPLIFIED IN ITS SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
A WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE GFS CRANKS OUT SOME LIGHT            
QPF. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE                     
EXTREMELY DRY SO NO PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LITTLE FORCING TO SUPPORT PRECIP FRI             
AND SAT WITH UPR RDG CONT. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK              
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE NW AND MAY SEE A BIT                  
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE                    
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS                  
EXPECTED TO WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR              
STRATUS. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL STREAM EAST                
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE BASES OF THESE                 
CLOUDS TO TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET.                                         
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN              
THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH DAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING. THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR               
THE CENTRAL WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN WINDS              
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS...BUT LOW                    
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LOCATED               
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PINCH THE                    
GRADIENT WITH WINDS AGAIN REACHING SUSTAINED 20 KT KEEPING SEAS                 
AROUND 6 FEET IN THE ADVSIORY AREA. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO                 
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT                     
AND WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER              
IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PRODUCING S/SW WINDS.                  
WENT CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS FOR THE NEAR TERM. NOT SURE ABOUT              
THE 5 TO 6 FT SEAS WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING LATER THU AND THU NIGHT                 
WITH SE SWELL ENERGY...WENT ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SEAS 3             
TO 5 FT MOST AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK.                                            
RIP CURRENT...WL CONT HIGH RISK TODAY FOR S/SE FACING BEACHES FROM              
HAT S. WILL CONT TO SEE A 3 FT SE SWELL TODAY AND COMBINED WITH                 
S/SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE DECENT WAVE ENERGY S OF HAT. WITH OFFSHORE              
WINDS AND MORE PARALLEL SWELL ENERGY KEPT LOW THREAT ACROSS NRN                 
BEACHES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT                 
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JME                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JME                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HSA                                                                
LONG TERM...HSA                                                                 
AVIATION...JME                                                                  
MARINE...JME                                                                    
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE              
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST FLOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS LOW             
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL                  
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION INTO             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY             
HEAVY RAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. ANY FLOODING                   
POTENTIAL WILL BE HANDLED BY LOCALIZED WARNINGS.                                
YOU WOULD HAVE TO GO WEST TO THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE TO GET BACK            
TO AUGUST TEMPERATURES. WHILE THEY ARE BASKING IN 80 + DEGREES AND              
DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70, OUR CWA IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERY CHILLY             
AUGUST TEMPERATURES. WOULD YOU BELIEVE IT`S ONLY IN THE 50S(MT.                 
POCONO 52). IF THE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN AS WARM AS THEY             
HAVE BEEN, WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND WE MAY EVEN EVEN COOLER! ANYWAY,             
THE OVERRUNNING COOL RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST EXCEPT FOR SOME TEXAS                
-LIKE DRIZZLE CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS GOING TO            
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER RIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAINTAINING A EAST TO                  
NORTHEAST WIND. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEDGES DOWN TO THE                      
APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT              
WILL HOLD STEADY IN MOST PLACES.                                                
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA WHERE SPC HAS RECENTLY ISSUED THE SVR                
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE NAM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT             
FOR MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE/DE AND ALMOST INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.             
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIN MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.               
EXPECT TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE            
SURFACE LOW EXITS DELMARVA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HEFTY 1.5             
INCHES COULD FALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES SO I`M                
GOING TO INSERT THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE                
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SAGGING 300MB JET              
AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WERN                         
PA/WVA/NORTHERN VA WITH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME HEAVY PCPN OVER THE             
SOUTHERN ZONES BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.                                     
THE VWP FROM DIX 88D SHOWS THE EAST WIND EXTENDING UP THROUGH 3,000             
FT AT 20 TO 25 KTS. THEN WARM ADVECTION ABOVE, CAPPING OFF AT 13,000            
FT. SOME CIRRUS IS ALSO STREAKING IN OVERHEAD.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...                                                      
STARTED BY LOWERING THE HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE CONTINUE IN A                  
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE INTERVAL BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION NOW AND THE              
NEXT EVENT IS NOT GOING TO BE THAT LONG. PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
WILL BE JUST CLOUDY AND THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. THE UPPER                
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON                  
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COME THE CHANCE OF MORE             
SHOWERS BY NIGHTFALL.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
FAST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRING A SURFACE FRONT TO THE                    
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE AIR WILL BE VERY HUMID            
WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70 AND 80H TEMPERATURES OF 18C. THE                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THE UNSTABLE AIR NORTHEAST, EAST OF THE              
APPALACHIANS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING            
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL PUNCH INTO THE MID 80S(A COUPLE             
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND IT WILL BE VERY MUGGY WITH SOME MID LEVEL             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS TO THE             
MID ATLANTIC, WHILE A LAZY SURFACE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE               
SOUTH. THE GENERAL LOCATION WILL BE FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTHERN               
GREAT LAKES. SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THAT AXIS INTO                
SUNDAY WITH A CLASSIC DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN WITH WAVES MOVING             
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, WE REMAIN ON THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SIDE OF             
THE SET UP UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH            
OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL NOT SIGNAL THE ALL CLEAR SIGN FOR NICE WEATHER            
AS A COUPLE WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND KEEP THE              
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF              
OF THE CWA.                                                                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A               
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80S DEGREES UNTIL SUNDAY THEN DROP BACK              
INTO THE 70S. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE VERY WARM AND HUMID                   
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF POOR FLYING WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OR              
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                   
ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE (MOST RECENT) STEADIER RAIN IS PULLING            
AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE               
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF            
WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT BETTER CONDITIONS MAY ARRIVE BY THE                
WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH...BUT ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE THAT                     
OPTIMISTIC. I WILL GO ALONG WITH THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR NOW.                  
FURTHER OUT...BETTER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER DURING THE DAY                
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS...AND THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL                  
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED             
SHOWERS DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM WINDS ON THE                  
WATERS. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE OVER THE                 
OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE            
PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND A HIGH REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE WRF-NAM            
MODEL HOLDS THE WINDS IN LONGER WED AS THE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...              
BUT THE GFS SLOWLY WEAKENS THE WIND FIELDS WED. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA            
FLAG GOING AS SEAS HAVE BUILT NICELY INTO THE 9 FT RANGE AT 44025               
AND THESE SEAS SHOULD PUSH TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN WATERS...BUT ARRIVE             
NOT QUITE THAT HIGH HERE. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AT LEAST 5 FT SEAS CAN            
BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AT THE SOUTHERN BUOY...SO I WILL               
EXTEND THE SCA FLAG ANOTHER 12 HOURS INTO THU FOR NOW.                          
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
UNLESS WE SEE A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THE NEXT TWO HOURS, WE WILL              
ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR THE LOWEST MAX FOR THIS DATE. THE RECORD             
WAS SET 81 YEARS AGO, 1926 WITH A LOW MAX OF 66 DEGREES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/NEAR-SHORT-LONG TERM/CLIMATE...EBERWINE                                
AVIATION/MARINE...O`HARA                                                        
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
320 PM CDT                                                                      
PRECIP AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN                  
THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS               
AND ISOLD STORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING            
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS                     
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE              
FILLED BACK IN RAPIDLY HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DUBUQUE TO AURORA              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS             
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING A WELL                 
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS                
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GET INGESTED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC            
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS WEST                  
CENTRAL MANITOBA. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI            
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. WITH THE               
PARTIAL CLEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE              
CWA TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID            
70S. SPC RUC ANALYSIS MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATE AN AXIS OF                 
MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 J/KG ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF            
THE CWA. AS THE NORTHERN MISSOURI SHORT WAVE TRACK EASTWARD THIS                
EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS                
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AS                
THOUGH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE                                
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN IOWA            
DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND AS UPPER LEVEL            
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TRACKS INTO MINNESOTA. GIVEN FAIRLY               
STEADY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT TODAY...BAND              
OF HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.             
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/JET DYNAMICS ALSO APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE               
FURTHER NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE                  
ISSUANCE OF ANY HYDROLOGY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT EVENING SHIFT            
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.                                         
LOW LEVEL FRONT SHOULD GET SUPRESSED BACK TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY              
WITH PASSAGE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND DUE TO ANY OUTFLOWS            
DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. GIVEN LOW LEVEL               
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TOMORROW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SRY FLOW OVER            
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY                
TOMORROW. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF                      
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME SUGGESTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING                
CAPPED TO SFC BASED CONVECTION. BUT EVEN IF PARCELS ARE NOT SURFACE             
BASED...ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN FORECAST                 
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
SHORT WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVES EJECT OUT EASTWARD THROUGH THE              
ROCKIES FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS               
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WAVERING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD                   
POSSIBLY SHAPING UP AS A PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR RAINFALL AS FRONT                
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALSO                   
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN               
CONUS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PROGRESSIVE COLD            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING AN END             
TO THE PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS             
FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                                
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION               
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS                   
SOUTHWEST CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 80S              
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL SOME QUESTION IN REGARDS TO                 
PROGRESSION OF THIS SOUTHWEST CANADIAN SHORT WAVE SO WILL HOLD OFF              
ON ANY TUES POPS AT THIS TIME.                                                  
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...                                      
100 PM CDT                                                                      
SFC ANALYSIS AND SATLT IMAGERY SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 17Z               
EXTENDING FROM NR DBQ-JOT-VPZ.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING             
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTR AREA THIS AFTN...MARKED MOST NOTABLY BY                   
RETREAT/EROSION OF IFR CLOUD DECK.  MOST AREAS HAVE ALSREADY SEEN               
LWR DECK SCT OUT REVEALING BKN VFR LYR ABV.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO               
CONTINUE ERLY THIS AFTN.  HOWEVER...GIVE HIGH DEW POINT AIR POOLED              
ALG/JUST S OF WARM FRONT AND ENUF SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP               
INTO LOW-MID 80S DURG COURSE OF AFTN...FCST SOUNDINGS RESULT IN SIG             
DESTABILIZATION.  BASED ON THIS WILL HAVE TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS CU                 
FIELD DVLPS.  AMS TO BCM QUITE UNSTABLE BY 00Z WITH FCST LI/S AOB -5            
AND CAPES APCHG 3500 J/KG.  EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME TSTMS DVLP OUT            
OF THIS BUT WITHOUT ANY APPARENT MID/UPR LVL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON                
ATTM...WILL FCST ISOLD COVG AND NOT PUT MENTION IN TAFS.  MORE SIG              
COVG OF SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MRNG AS WEAK               
SHRT WAVE NOW MOVG EWD FROM CNTRL NEB/SD ACTS ON UNSTABLE AMS TO                
TRIGGER TSTM CLUSTER TO W OF RGN THIS EVENING.  BEST LLVL FORCING               
FOR STMS FCT TO BE MAINLY N OF IL/WI STA LN...BUT AT THIS                       
POINT...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF STMS FURTHER S ACRS NRN IL/NWRN IND            
WARRANTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF SHWRS WITH CUMULONIMBI DURG THIS                 
TIME.                                                                           
WITH DEW POINTS IN LWR 70S...EXPECT VIS WILL ALSO LWR IN FOG/HAZE               
TO MVFR RANGE AFT SUNSET DUE TO LGT WIND REGIME...BUT WITH WARM                 
FRONT N OF AREA...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYTHING CLOSE TO CONDS             
PAST 12 HRS.                                                                    
WINDS IN PROCESS OF BCMG SSWLY ACROSS RGN AS WARM FRONT MOVED NWD.              
SPEEDS TO PMN QUITE LGT...GENLY BLO 10 KTS...WITH SOME BACKING TO               
SSE DURG NIGHTTIME HRS.                                                         
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE DISCUSSION...                                                           
100 PM CDT                                                                      
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH               
THE MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LOW OVER                      
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING.             
BY FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS LOW             
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...CLEARING LAKE                    
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                             
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SELY-SLY THRU TNGT AND BCM MORE S-SSWLY                 
LATER TNGT AND ESPECIALLY WED AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD A BIT AND                
FLOW VEERS AHD OF APCHG CANADIAN WX SYS/COLD FRONT. SPEEDS TO RMN               
QUITE LGT WITH 10 TO 15 KT RNGE PREVAILING.                                     
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCRS IN COVERAGE TNGT...AND CONTINUE FROM              
TIME TO TIME THRU THU NGT-FRI.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STMS WILL BE             
OVR SRN 1/2 OF LAKE LATE TNGT-ERLY WED...THEN AGAIN THUR NGT...AND              
FINALLY ON FRIDAY ALG/AHD OF COLD FRONT.                                        
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
319 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...                                          
MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION IS THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY                 
WHICH HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.                  
FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOW RETREAT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING.              
CLOUD COVER LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE REGION DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE            
DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE OTHER SOURCE OF FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE              
AREA AS CROSS FRONTAL FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET ENDED AND LITTLE              
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING EXISTS PER LATEST RUC DATA.                             
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE RUC AND NAM/SREF THIS PERIOD. FRONT STILL                 
HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SMALL SURFACE LOW PULLING            
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC WIND DATA AT              
LAYERS H925-850 AND H850-700 SHOWING WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY              
AND THEREFORE SHOULD START TO PUSH THE FRONT NORTH MORE INTO THE                
GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE SMALL LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE UPPER              
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED T-STORM WILL BE              
POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. SOME             
LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING OUT SOME IF THE               
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENT THINKING. DEWPOINTS HAVE             
CONTINUED SLOW CLIMB TODAY...NEARING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S                
AREAWIDE. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                 
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING               
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. ANY LOWER VSBY               
AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL             
ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WITH H850 TEMPS NEAR 20C            
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. HAVE                
WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER THE MOS BLEND AS SOME ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER               
MAY LIMIT HEATING SOME...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE GROUND WHICH             
WILL TAKE SOME OF THE HEATING ENERGY FOR EVAPORATION. WITH DEWPOINTS            
IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S             
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SIDE RESULT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING                
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.            
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE            
WITH STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...AS WINDEX VALUES HAVE APPROACHED            
VALUES OF 1.2 OR 1.3. INSTABILITY INDICES ARE SHOWING LI`S NEARING              
-5 TO -7 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. PWATS                  
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH CLOSE TO 1.7 OR 1.8 INCHES...ALLOWING FOR                  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE                         
RAINFALL...SO ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW...BUT             
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST                   
INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO WHERE EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS THE LAST            
48 HOURS HAVE OCCURRED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BEGINNING OF FCST PERIOD HINGES ON EVENTUAL POSITION OF SFC                     
BOUNDARY...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG PUSHING NORTH OF OUR CWA               
ALBEIT NOT TOO MUCH NORTH. MAIN PLAYER THU NITE APPEARS TO BE MCS               
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AND ITS EVENTUAL EASTWARD TRACK. LLJ OVER               
KS/OK WILL NOSE UP INTO SOUTHERN IA AND COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL                 
THETAE RIDGE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SERVE AS CONVECTIVE                   
INITIATION AREA. 00Z THU HAS E/W ORIENTATION OF 850-300MB THICKNESS             
PATTERN OVER OUR AREA WITH RIDGE BUILDING UP INTO KS/NE. THICKNESS              
RIDGE BUILDS WITH TIME AND MOVES THROUGH IA AND UP INTO SW WI BY                
12Z THU. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT EXPECT MCS TO RIDE THE RIDGE AND            
TRACK PRIMARILY NORTH OF OUR CWA...WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTION MAIN               
THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION. THAT SAID THIS IS BY NO MEANS A SURE BET             
AS ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION IN PLACEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ANY                    
RESIDUAL EFFECTS FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING TUES NITE AND WED WILL              
CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIP CHANCES OVER ENTIRE            
CWA IN CHANCE RANGE WITH HIGHER VALUES FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST CWA...AS            
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. AREA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR             
THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH EXPECT            
POTENTIAL FOR AFTN CONVECTION. SFC WAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRAG                   
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL            
PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA              
ON SAT BRINGING COOLER DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND WILL STAY              
WITH DRY FORECAST REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE 850MB            
TEMPS REACHING 22C BY THU AFTN...SUGGESTING L90S WITH ANY                       
APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF SUN...BUT AMOUNT OF SENSIBLE HEATING                      
REALIZED MAY BE HAMPERED BY AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH                 
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RECENT RAINS. STILL...WILL GO TOWARD L90S IN            
SOUTHERN CWA AND TAPER TO U80S IN NORTH WHERE BETTER CHANCE FOR                 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTS. TEMPS TO DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL                 
DAYS 5-7.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIODS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MVFR                
OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBY. AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST              
OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS IN THE                 
IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY BEFORE                   
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A FEW              
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SBN TO              
GUS. CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT TO NEAR IFR LEVELS...WITH VSBYS                    
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 SM. SOME LIFTING OF THE CIGS EXPECTED DURING                 
THE LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM....LOGSDON                                                            
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
137 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIODS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MVFR OR             
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBY. AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST                 
OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS IN THE                 
IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY BEFORE                   
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A FEW              
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SBN TO              
GUS. CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT TO NEAR IFR LEVELS...WITH VSBYS                    
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 SM. SOME LIFTING OF THE CIGS EXPECTED DURING                 
THE LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN ISSUES COVERED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER                        
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...AND               
IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE THROUGH ENOUGH FOR              
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN TEMPS TO OCCUR. ALSO HAVE LOWERED PRECIP                   
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOME...SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE                    
RUC SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY                 
THERE AS THE THE AMOUNT OF HEATING FOR SOLID CONVECTION TO                      
FIRE...MAY END UP BEING MORE SHOWERS. BOUNDARY STILL SITS ACROSS                
THE FORECAST AREA SO PRECIP IS STILL A CONCERN BUT WITH LITTLE                  
FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING...MORE SO WELL TO THE EAST AND WEAKENED LOW              
LEVEL JET WHICH IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT BELIEVE                  
THAT THE LOWERING OF POP IS JUSTIFIED. PWATS ARE STILL VERY                     
HIGH...SO MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO               
DEVELOP...BUT THE EFFECTS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED.                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                 
VERY COMPLEX SETUP NEXT 24 HOURS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT...MAINLY             
IN A NARROW BAND FROM MIAMI/WABASH COUNTY EAST INTO PART OF NW OHIO.            
SOME AREAS JUST TONIGHT HAVE PICKED UP ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF                 
RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. SEE RECENT SPENES FOR               
FLOODING TRENDS IN THIS AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE THINGS HANDLED WITH                
AREAL FLOOD WARNING IN THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO IN TERMS OF                      
GRIDS/ZONES WILL COVER WITH PRE-1ST PERIOD WORDING. ACTIVITY SHOULD             
CALM AROUND 12Z AS FOCUS THEN TURNS TO COMPLEX WORKING ACROSS                   
EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS. OVERALL COMPLEX WAS MORE IMPRESSIVE A              
FEW HOURS AGO WITH A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE.               
HOWEVER AS THE COLD POOL HAS LOST ITS PUNCH CONVECTION HAD                      
DIMINISHED BUT STRATIFORM AREA STILL HOLDING ON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD             
BRING THIS AREA IN THIS MORNING WORKING EAST WITH TIME INTO THIS                
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS OF NO USE AS THEY ARE NOT EVEN PICKING UP ON                 
THESE FEATURES. 4 KM WRF HAS SOME SIGNALS WITH CONVECTION IN IOWA               
AROUND 6Z BUT A BIT TOO SLOW/FAR WEST. THEN JUST STALLS THE COMPLEX             
OUT BY 12Z WHICH IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO OCCURRING. THINK AT LEAST SOME            
RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IN THIS AM SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
IN THE WEST THIS AM. AND THEN SCT WEST/LIKELY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.              
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY WARRANT HOLDING OFF ON TOO              
MANY MORE CHANGES. WITH PWATS AROUND 2" AND SLOWER OVERALL                      
FLOW...VERY HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT. MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN                  
GRIDS/ZONES. IN TERMS OF HEADLINES...WITH WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS             
IN PLACE NOW FOR A FEW DAYS...REISSUING FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY                 
SERVE MUCH OVERALL PURPOSE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NO WATCH AND USE             
WARNINGS AS NEEDED.                                                             
TONIGHT...MODELS TRY TO TAKE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MI THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TODAY THAT BOUNDARY            
MAY STRUGGLE TO WORK NORTH. 4KM WRF REDEVELOPS CONVECTION DURING THE            
EVENING HOURS MUCH LIKE HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW NIGHTS. AM INCLINED TO            
GIVE IT A NOD...AND WOULD LIKE TO MAKE CHANGES BUT SINCE ENOUGH                 
ISSUES WITH 1ST PERIOD LET ALONE 2ND PERIOD WILL LEAVE TNGT FORECAST            
INTACT.                                                                         
TEMPS WILL HAVE A MASSIVE BUST POTENTIAL TODAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT              
POSSIBLE N TO S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S N TO LOW 80S             
SOUTH. ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW THEM TO CLIMB AND ALSO CREATE            
ADDITIONAL ISSUES IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND INCREASING HEAT                    
INDICES.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                       
UNSETTLED AND STORMY PATTN TO CONT UNTIL SAT.                                   
LTL CHG IN OVERALL FLAT WESTERLY FLW ALOFT W/STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY              
STRETCHED OUT ACRS THE MIDWEST. SFC WAVE OVR KS WILL CONT TO LIFT               
NEWD TWD LK HURON BY WED EVENING AND ALLOW SFC BNDRY TO MIX WELL NWD            
AND PLACE CWA SQUARELY WITHIN WHAT SHLD BE A VRY UNSTABLE WARM                  
SECTOR WED AFTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY FLOUNDERING                      
W/MESOSCALE DETAILS...MOST NOTABLY THE FAILURE OF CAPTURING MCS OVR             
ERN IA/NE MO THIS MORNING. SUSPICION AT THIS POINT IS RENEWED                   
MCS/MCV GENERATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE PLAINS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACRS             
IA AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE AREA BY AFTN. HWVR GIVEN ABUNDANT MSTR             
HERE AND CONTD LL WAA IN PLACE...CERTAINLY COULD SEE OTHER STORMS               
POP IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.                                                    
LTL CHG XPCD THU/THU NIGHT OTHER THEN A MORE DEFINED LARGE SCALE                
TRIGGER AS SECONDARY STRONGER FNTL WAVE KICKS NEWD INTO THE WRN                 
LAKES BY AFTN W/VRY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER               
GFS MOS TEMPS ARE RIDICULOUS AND DISCARDED IN FVR OF MORE PALATABLE             
MET NUMBERS AND SAME FOR FRI.                                                   
THIRD AND FINAL SFC WAVE TO KICK OUT SOMETIME FRI ALTHOUGH MED RANGE            
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUITE LARGE AND UNCERTAIN. CONSENSUS WOULD BRING                
CDFNT THROUGH CWA SOMETIME FRI NIGHT W/SFC RIDGING BLDG THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND AND A NEEDED DRYING OUT. WILL MAKE FEW CHGS TO GOING GRIDS              
WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM....FISHER                                                             
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF                 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS                    
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A THERMAL BOUNDARY ASSOC/W                    
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM PERVASIVE LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS             
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE UPPER              
90S...WHILE TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL VA WERE IN THE               
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE TRUE WEDGE FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE RETREATED            
NORTH AND IS NOW LOCATED IN NORTHERN VA. A SFC TROUGH AXIS WAS                  
LOCATED ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NC/VA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH                    
CAROLINA WERE IN THE LOWER 60S (WEST) TO UPPER 60S (EAST). ALOFT...A            
SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX ASSOC/W THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIN WAS LOCATED OVER              
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP ON RAOB                  
ANALYSIS...RUC H5 HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...AND IN WV IMAGERY WHICH CAN              
BE USED TO CLEARLY TRACE THIS FEATURE BACK OVER OK/MO AS ERIN`S                 
REMNANTS.                                                                       
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THINGS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO                      
YESTERDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME GOOD            
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE ASSOC/W THE REMNANTS             
OF TS ERIN CROSSING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER                
LEVEL FEATURE IS CURRENTLY FORCING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN KY               
AND THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS...AND THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THE                
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC 20-25/S VORT ADVECTING INTO W/SW VIRGINIA AND               
NORTHWEST NC BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z.                 
GFS/NAM BUFR AND RUC40 FCST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW AN AIRMASS THAT IS               
MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES IN THE                
1.50-2.00" RANGE. IN FACT...THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A             
33F DEWPOINT AT 700MB...IN CONTRAST TO A 14F DEWPOINT AT 700MB 12Z              
YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON             
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SOME PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIKELY             
SEE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. EVEN WITH                    
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...ALL THE FCST MODELS MENTIONED SHOW                 
AFTERNOON SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH STEEP DRY                 
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750-700 MB. OBVIOUSLY IF DEWPOINTS ARE              
HIGHER...THIS VALUE GOES UP AND IF DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...THIS VALUE             
GOES DOWN.                                                                      
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS            
OF THE CWA AFTER 20Z...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE/VORT WHICH WILL CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER 00Z THIS               
EVENING. CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND                    
MOUNTAINS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE VA/NC PIEDMONT VIA 30KT               
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NW                    
PIEDMONT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES                   
OVERALL IN THE NORTH AND LOWER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH...CONTINUING                
AFTER SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH STEEP                 
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...INVERTED-V                   
SOUNDING PROFILES...AND 30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR             
TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS               
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL               
900 PM FOR THE NW PIEDMONT...AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED              
FOR AREAS TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFT/EVE. WILL TAPER POPS OFF FROM              
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT                   
PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. -VINCENT                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                 
BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW SFC RIDGING ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW                  
ENGLAND CONTINUING TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN VA. THE NAM                
APPEARS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO BRING THE SFC RIDGING AND ASSOC            
COLD POOL FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VA DURING THE DAY WED...AND               
EVEN INTO NORTHERN NC WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WED...AND THE HIGHEST            
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH/SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                        
THEREFORE...THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL LIKELY BE IN S/SW                 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F...AND THE                  
LOWEST WILL BE IN NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE A BLEND OF              
MAV/MET GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. AS FAR AS                  
PRECIP IS CONCERNED...BOTH THE GFS/NAM DO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE              
DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT WED AFTERNOON...AND                
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH PWAT VALUES (1.75-2.00") AND AROUND 1500               
J/KG OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY EVEN IF DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER             
60S...THEREFORE...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE             
FORECAST WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. -VINCENT                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
MID LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND            
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.             
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 90 TO 97 THURSDAY AND 96 TO 101 FORECAST              
FRIDAY BEFORE A SLOW COOLING TREND DROPS HIGHS TO NORMAL TUESDAY.               
HOWEVER WITH ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS              
COOLING TREND IS NOT HIGH.                                                      
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST OF A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE             
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA IS SUSPECT AND WILL                  
IGNORE THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.                                               
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
SOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA PERHAPS                 
INCREASING MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCES TO              
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THIS                   
CONSERVATIVE AND RESPECT THE DROUGHT AND BE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE TIME            
BEING. -RLH                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY                    
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LINE BUT IT DOES LOOK               
LIKE THIS LINE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA              
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED CUMULONIMBUS TO               
THE WESTERN SITES AND WILL MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN                 
SITES AS FAR AS SUNSET AND ITS AFFECT ON CONVECTION.                            
OTHER THAN IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR.                
A WETTING RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME MORNING FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS            
THREAT TO THE WEST BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE WEST WITH THE NEXT                   
REGULAR FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                             
RDU-                                                                            
AUG 21: 101 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 22: 101 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 23: 103 IN 2002                                                             
AUG 24: 100 IN 2002                                                             
GSO-                                                                            
AUG 21: 100 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 22: 100 IN 1983                                                             
AUG 23: 99 IN 1983                                                              
AUG 24: 98 IN 1968                                                              
THE MODERATE AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ARE NOT               
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE 7 DAY               
FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS NO APPARENT WEATHER FEATURE TO SUPPORT                
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS OF AUGUST 20TH...THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL             
AT GSO AND RDU IS 0.34" AND 0.26" RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN             
SIGNIFICANT AUGUST RAINFALL DEFICITS LEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF              
AUGUST AND A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST AUGUSTS ON            
RECORD.                                                                         
LISTED BELOW IS THE DRIEST AUGUST AT GSO AND RDU ON                             
RECORD.                                                                         
TOP 5 DRIEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD.                                                 
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1928)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH                     
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT... IF WE EXPERIENCE NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH RDU WOULD BREAK THE                 
RECORD FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD... AND GSO WOULD FALL A                 
TENTH OF A DEGREE SHORT OF THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD. HOWEVER...             
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE                   
NORMAL. THUS... THE RECORDS LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO FALL.                    
THE CURRENT MEAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT RDU AND GSO AS OF AUGUST                
20TH IS 84.4F AND 83.6F RESPECTIVELY.                                           
TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD.                        
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RLH                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
CLIMATE...CBL                                                                   
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