AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
954 AM MST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ADDED THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE                   
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE TO THE SNOW ADVISORY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST                
LOW END ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.                    
SOME LIGHT SHSN MOVING THRU PUEBLO COUNTY RIGHT NOW BUT AM NOT                  
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAIN SNOWFALL SHOULD                
BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OVER THE ERN MTS...AND                    
THE HYR TRRN W OF I-25. ROSE                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM MST THU DEC 4 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
..SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AMOUNTS AND COLD TEMPS...                     
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH                 
ELONGATING ACROSS THE STATE. REGION RADARS INDICATING WIDESPREAD                
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH RR                
QUAD OF JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. AT THE           
SFC...COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND             
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE KEEPING MVFR CLOUD DECK              
IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO             
ATTM.                                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH SWATH             
OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT AS               
JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH HAVE                  
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS FOR THIS MORNING WITH                   
SATELLITE INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND LATEST NAM PRINTING                 
OUT SOME LIGHT WAA QPF FOR THE MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT GENERALLY               
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS ZONE 59 AND NORTHERN                  
PORTIONS OF ZONE 60 THROUGH 03Z. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR               
TELLER COUNTY FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW            
POSSIBLE. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WET AND SANGRE DE                
CRISTO MTS...THOUGH WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED TO               
START UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST NAM KEEPING H7 FLOW LIGHT            
WESTERLY...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF IT IS NEEDED. AT ANY                   
RATE...CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS ALONG AND WEST OF THE            
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. SNOW            
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING                
WITH SUBSIDENT BEHIND PASSING WAVE. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED               
CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE NEAR STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING             
WITH COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE               
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY THAN                          
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN FORECAST. -MW                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(FRI-WED)                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER WX SYSTEM WHICH WILL              
ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT OF ACCUM SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION                 
DURING THE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.                                     
IN THE MEANTIME...WX SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE WX IN THE SHORT               
TERM (ABOVE) SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH                 
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE REGION BY                    
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RECOVER AS COMPARED                
TO TODAY...BUT IT STILL WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPS MAINLY              
IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                             
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NICE AND MAINLY DRY AS MODEST NW               
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. ANTICIPATE TEMPS MAINLY IN THE            
50S/AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS THESE TWO DAYS.                                     
AS FOR MONDAY...ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER                     
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EC IS             
A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR PRECIP ON THE            
PLAINS AS THE 700 MB WINDS ON THIS GUIDANCE PRODUCT GO NE FOR A                 
PERIOD OF TIME. SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE C MTNS BY EARLY                   
MONDAY...WITH THE PRECIP DROPPING S ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE                
DAYTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE                    
POPULATION CENTERS OF SE CO WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY                    
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE                              
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE EC COMES CLOSER TO VERIFYING. TEMPS                
ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT COMES DOWN                   
LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW LEFT TEMPS AS IS AND WILL LET LATER                   
SHIFTS ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                                                      
BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION WITH                    
CLEARING SKIES. WED ANOTHER WX SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION            
WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE C MTNS AND POSSIBLY             
THE PLAINS. /34                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS                     
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL MTS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS                 
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON                
AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH              
TONIGHT. -MW                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR                        
COZ072>075-080>082.                                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-                 
060.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44/06                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
435 AM MST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AMOUNTS AND COLD TEMPS...                    
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH                 
ELONGATING ACROSS THE STATE. REGION RADARS INDICATING WIDESPREAD                
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH RR                
QUAD OF JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. AT THE           
SFC...COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND             
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE KEEPING MVFR CLOUD DECK              
IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO             
ATTM.                                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH SWATH             
OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT AS               
JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH HAVE                  
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS FOR THIS MORNING WITH                   
SATELLITE INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND LATEST NAM PRINTING                 
OUT SOME LIGHT WAA QPF FOR THE MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT GENERALLY               
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS ZONE 59 AND NORTHERN                  
PORTIONS OF ZONE 60 THROUGH 03Z. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR               
TELLER COUNTY FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW            
POSSIBLE. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WET AND SANGRE DE                
CRISTO MTS...THOUGH WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED TO               
START UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST NAM KEEPING H7 FLOW LIGHT            
WESTERLY...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF IT IS NEEDED. AT ANY                   
RATE...CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS ALONG AND WEST OF THE            
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. SNOW            
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING                
WITH SUBSIDENT BEHIND PASSING WAVE. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED               
CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE NEAR STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING             
WITH COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE               
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY THAN                          
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN FORECAST. -MW                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRI-WED)                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER WX SYSTEM WHICH WILL              
ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT OF ACCUM SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION                 
DURING THE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.                                     
IN THE MEANTIME...WX SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE WX IN THE SHORT               
TERM (ABOVE) SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH                 
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE REGION BY                    
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RECOVER AS COMPARED                
TO TODAY...BUT IT STILL WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPS MAINLY              
IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                             
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NICE AND MAINLY DRY AS MODEST NW               
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. ANTICIPATE TEMPS MAINLY IN THE            
50S/AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS THESE TWO DAYS.                                     
AS FOR MONDAY...ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER                     
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EC IS             
A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR PRECIP ON THE            
PLAINS AS THE 700 MB WINDS ON THIS GUIDANCE PRODUCT GO NE FOR A                 
PERIOD OF TIME. SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE C MTNS BY EARLY                   
MONDAY...WITH THE PRECIP DROPPING S ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE                
DAYTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE                    
POPULATION CENTERS OF SE CO WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY                    
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE                              
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE EC COMES CLOSER TO VERIFYING. TEMPS                
ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT COMES DOWN                   
LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW LEFT TEMPS AS IS AND WILL LET LATER                   
SHIFTS ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                                                      
BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION WITH                    
CLEARING SKIES. WED ANOTHER WX SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION            
WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE C MTNS AND POSSIBLY             
THE PLAINS. /HODANISH                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS                     
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL MTS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS                 
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON                
AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH              
TONIGHT. -MW                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-                 
060.                                                                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST                    
THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-082.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1244 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL                     
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS                   
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND              
DRIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY...BUT PRODUCE A COLD FLOW OF AIR ACROSS                 
THE GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE          
AREA WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...DRAGGING YET ANOTHER COLD              
CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION...AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. SUNDAY NIGHT              
INTO MONDAY AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE                
GREAT LAKES ACROSS OUR REGION. MIDWEEK A RATHER COMPLEX STORM                   
SYSTEM WILL HEAD OUR WAY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
OVERNIGHT PER THE RUC13 AND NAM12/18Z SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR WILL NOT              
ONLY CONTINUE BUT BECOME MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS                     
RESULTED IN A SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BAND AND WILL                
EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS BAND IS                 
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND SUNRISE AND COULD POSE AN ISSUE               
ALONG THE THRUWAY MORNING COMMUTE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT THE BAND FLUCTUATES BTWN 280 AND 250                       
DEG...PUTTING MUCH OF N HERKIMER AND W HAMILTON COS IN PERIODS OF               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS FIRE HOUSE EFFECT WILL KEEP THE EVENT FROM               
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA AS THE SNOW IS SPREAD OVER A WIDER AREA.              
AWAY FROM THE LAKES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE FAIR                     
WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP              
IT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY THAN CLEAR.                                               
FRIDAY NIGHT SFC RIDGE SETS UP FM MAINE TO W VA. LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES         
AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS...AND THE WHATS LEFT IS TURNED TWRD SAINT                 
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS H850 FLOW BCMS SW. JUST ABOUT IDEAL RADIATION                
CONDITIONS FRI NT AND WILL TAKE MINS SEVERAL DEGREES BLO MODEL                  
BLEND.                                                                          
SAT WILL START FAIR...BUT CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING            
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM IS               
SLOWER WITH THIS BY 3-6 HOURS...BUT BOTH MDLS HOLD PCPN OFF TILL                
EVENING.                                                                        
THE CLIPPER SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE E GRTLKS AS A SERIES OF                   
500HPA SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A NEGATIVELY TILED TROF AT THAT LEVEL              
FM THE GRTLKS TO MID ATLC. FCA IS IN WAA AREA BETWEEN SFC LOW OVER              
E GRTLKS AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW SAT NT INTO SUNDAY.                
THE MAIN OCCLUDED AXIS IS EAST OF FCA SUNDAY MORNING.  HWVR THE                 
GFS/NAM SHOWS CONTINUING WIDESPREAD -SHSN IN CAA MAINLY N & W OF                
ALB. WHILE CONDS IN LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF LK                       
RESPONSE INTO OUR AREA...(N-NNW FLOW)...THIS PCPN IS MAINLY                     
DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF THE 500 HPA TROF. NAM IS STILL A TAD                  
FASTER ENDING THIS EVENT. MUCH OF AREA WILL SEE -SN...WITH AN INCH              
OR SO POSSIBLE VALLEYS AND A FEW INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY     
ADIRONDACKS. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE TWO OUTLIERS THAT WOULD INDICATE A              
6 INCH SNOW STORM...BUT THEY ARE OUTLIERS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A MOSTLY                 
DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO A DRY MONDAY TO START OFF              
THE PERIOD. MONDAY TEMPS WILL TRY TO BREAK FREEZING...WITH 850                  
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE                  
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL                  
QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.                
INCREASED POPS TO SLGT CHC AND CHC OVERNIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER               
THAN ECMWF AND DGEX WITH ONSET OF PRECIP. GFS HAS H500 CLOSED LOW               
IN MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAIN STATES HELPING TO FEED                 
MOISTURE THE SFC LOW MOVING TOWARDS TENNESSEE. THE H500 LOW WILL                
DEEPEN AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...SPLITTING BY                
WED MORNING...BECOMING A DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW SYSTEM. THIS                  
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MIXED PRECIP EVENT. THIS DEEP               
LOW WILL ALSO BRING STRONG COLD AIR...WITH MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY                
IN THE M20S. 12Z ECMWF HAS LESS COMPLEX SYSTEM...WITH SLOWER                    
PROGRESSION...AND WARMER TEMPS FROM A MORE BROAD TROUGH.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH              
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT               
PERIOD AS ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN WELL WEST              
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. KGFL MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW FLURRIES                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z               
AND 22Z AND WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.              
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND TUG                
HILL. GENERALLY EXPECT BKN035 BKN050 DURING DAYTIME HOURS WITH                  
SKIES BECOMING SKC ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.                                     
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W-NW AT 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                     
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI NGHT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                 
SAT NGHT-SUN...MVFR/IFR...CHC -SN.                                              
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT WILL TURN               
MUCH COLDER STARTING LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM               
RAIN TO SNOW.                                                                   
STARTING TONIGHT TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW           
FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO               
THE MID THIRTIES AND LOWS FROM THE MID SINGLES TO THE MID TWENTIES.             
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ICE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON RIVERS AND                
LAKES.                                                                          
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                 
     NYZ032-033-038.                                                            
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER                                                               
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...BGM/SNYDER                                                         
LONG TERM...KGS                                                                 
AVIATION...11                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
415 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER UNEVENTFUL                 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. NATION IS              
SPLIT ALOFT BY A STRUNG OUT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN                 
CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE              
FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER PATTERN ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF             
COAST IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING AND WEAK                   
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE CROSSED OVERHEAD               
THIS PAST EVENING AND IS NOW SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING              
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERHEAD.                              
AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT               
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS TO OUR              
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS MAKING PAINFULLY SLOW PROGRESS                  
EASTWARD AND THIS SLOW MOTION SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE             
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVERS             
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALSO SHOWING THE             
SAME SLOW MOVEMENT EAST. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT VERY WEAK              
AT THIS POINT...REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING ONLY A SCATTERING OF                
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE LARGELY IN A ZONE            
EAST OF A LINE FROM KPFN TO KABY AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PERRY TO               
TIFTON.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN                
ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE FL BIG BEND            
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS UNLIKE SOME OF THE MORE POTENT              
SURGES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN TERMS OF COLD AIR WITH ONLY A            
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE                    
SYNOPSIS ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS                   
LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SUPPORT FOR                
SHOWERS WILL LARGELY HAVE TO COME FROM THE LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT                
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE FORMING IN A                 
REGION OF WEAK FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF AN 850MB THETA-E                 
RIDGE. GFS/NAM IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT                  
DURING THE DAY WHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT                 
INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. WITH THIS IN                
MIND WILL TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FOR              
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF A             
LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO VALDOSTA AFTER 1 OR 2 PM. IF SHOULD BE                
MENTIONED THAT DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES...THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE            
LIMITED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY ONLY AROUND              
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. WHILE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA              
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT                          
HOURS...FURTHER NORTHWEST WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MOISTURE               
LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE SLOWLY SCOURING OUT ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FLORIDA                           
PANHANDLE...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN...ESPECIALLY                 
AFTER NOON.                                                                     
SURFACE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS                 
EVENING AND REMAIN IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE                
AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT A MEMORY OFF TO             
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT               
(MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA) ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN BIG BEND...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290-300K                 
SURFACES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED            
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. ON TOP OF THIS LOWER LEVEL LIFT...WILL ALSO BE            
WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT RACING EASTWARD ALONG THE               
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. GFS IS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT OF DEEP SYNOPTIC              
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO ADD SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS.               
THIS ADDED LIFT MAY ALSO BE ADD JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR            
TWO OF THUNDER DOWN TOWARD CROSS CITY. IN FACT SHOWALTER INDICES DO             
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AFTER MIDNIGHT. A               
COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR ALL BEHIND THE FRONT. GRIDS NOW SHOWING            
30S OVER THE NW ZONES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FURTHER SOUTHEAST.                
THERE ARE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOWING A LIGHT FREEZE OVER PORTIONS OF              
SE AL AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AM A BIT CONCERNED               
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING                     
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING                    
ACHIEVED AND WILL KEEP THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW              
FREEZING. EVEN STILL MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN UNSHELTERED AREA              
OF THE WEST.                                                                    
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPULSE IN THE MID-LEVELS EXITS                   
TO OUR EAST EARLY ON SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS DURING THIS TIME               
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN PULLING THE BOUNDARY FORWARD                 
AGAIN. WILL END POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND BY SUNRISE ON                
SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON WITH A DRY DAY NOW FORECAST AREA WIDE. WILL            
BE WATCHING AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE               
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION LATER SATURDAY AND AT NIGHT. THIS TROUGH            
WILL FORCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.                  
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND EXPECTING A RAPID AND DRY FRONTAL             
PASSAGE BY SUNRISE. WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST                
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AFTERNOON TEMPS UP IN TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH              
AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRING A               
STEADY DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT GRIDS                
SHOWING LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH             
BY SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME THE RIDGE POSITION APPEARS TOO FAR NW TO               
ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN                
ZONES. WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT DROP LOW TEMPS BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.              
SUNDAY...PLEASANT AND COOL DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY            
SUNNY SKIES AND A STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZE. WEAK CAA WILL PREVENT                
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE COLUMN POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...                
STILL FEEL THE MAV IS A TAD COOL AND WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF             
DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                     
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL               
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A 500 MB LONG WAVE            
TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM) PROPAGATE TOWARD THE EAST.               
BOTH THE GFS MOS AND GFS BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FORECAST A LIGHT               
FREEZE MONDAY...BUT THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION             
OF THE SURFACE HIGH (ALONG THE VA COAST) AND THE POSSIBILITY OF                 
INCREASING CS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG            
THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT            
SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WILL RECEIVE 2 TO             
3 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE            
OPERATIONAL GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS SURFACE LOW                
(TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH GA WEDNESDAY) THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND             
CMC SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL                
GFS...AND THE UKMET IMPLIES THE FRONT MAY STALL BY MID WEEK. WE WILL            
FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AS IT IS IN BETWEEN THESE                   
VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO             
DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS NEXT             
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY ENERGETIC (REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT                
TIMING AND TRACK)...WHICH  MEANS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER ANYWHERE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.            
HOPEFULLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL WHEN (IF) THE MODEL            
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS             
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT A WIND                
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. EXPECTING WINDS IN THE CAUTIONARY             
LEVEL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP OVER 20 KNOTS. OFFSHORE              
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UP TO AROUND 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
WESTERN LEGS. FRONT WASHES OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND              
SEAS DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD              
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY AND                    
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS              
AND SEAS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE 00 UTC GFS MOS APPEAR TO BE UNDER-ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW              
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS MVFR-IFR CLOUD               
DECK EXTENDS FROM KFFC GA TO KCWF LA...AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS             
SOUTHEASTWARD. WE OPTED TO USE THE FORECAST RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS               
FOR OUR CLOUD FORECAST AS THAT GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED REASONABLY              
WELL SO FAR...AND MOS SOMETIMES HAS A TENDENCY TO CLEAR LOW CLOUDS              
OUT TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATIONS. MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL            
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS FROM                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.            
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT KTLH...KPFN...AND KVLD              
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VIS OCCASIONALLY            
REDUCED TO MVFR.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FL PANHANDLE AND             
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WE DO NOT EXCPECT TO GET            
THE WIND OR DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO WARRANT A FIRE                 
WEATHER WATCH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON             
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED               
TODAY OR TONIGHT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  61  42  64  36  61 /  50  10  10   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  60  43  63  41  61 /  30  10  10   0   0                           
DOTHAN       57  37  61  35  58 /  10   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  37  61  33  59 /  20  10   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     61  44  64  38  60 /  30  20  10   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   70  48  68  40  64 /  30  40  10  10   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...FOURNIER                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
245 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CU DEVELOPMENT SHOWING THE              
SIGNS OF INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE CWA UNDER SLY FLOW. TEMPS HAVE             
REACHED THE 70 OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A FEW MID 70               
DEG READINGS OVER NE FL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD                
OVER THE SE CONUS WITH A TRAILING AREA OF PRECIP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT              
FROM NRN GA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE. VORTICITY MAX OVER AL IS QUICKLY               
MOVING NEWD AND WEAKENING ATTM. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                
RUC DATA SHOULD BEING SEEING PWATS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 INCH BY                  
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA.                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-SUNDAY.                                                   
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK                   
LIFT BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GENERATE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER               
THE NRN ZONES. COMBO OF LIGHT WINDS...COOL OVERNIGHT MINS IN MID 40S            
TO NEAR 50 AND THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY             
TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY...FRONT WILL BE                
LOCATED FROM SE GA COAST TO SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA PUSHING SLOWLY SEWD            
WITH GENERALLY LOW POPS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO                  
THE PRECIP BRIEFLY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N OF THE AREA. MAX              
TEMPS WILL BE FROM NEAR 60 N TO AROUND 70 S/SE ZONES. FRI NIGHT...              
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE ERN GULF TO TN VALLEY AND UPPER              
DISTURBANCES WILL HELP THE FRONT PUSH SLOWLY SE BUT SOME WEAK                   
OVERRUNNING UPGLIDE OVER THE SE PORTION WILL STILL SUPPORT ~20%                 
POPS. MIN TEMPS FROM NEAR 40 NEAR ALMA AND LOWER 50S SE ZONES.                  
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG              
AGAIN. SATURDAY...FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH ALL THE ZONES WITH            
ANY PRECIP PROSPECTS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. TEMPS STILL NOT                  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE COOL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.                     
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER DAYTIME HEATING SO TEMPS MAY BE A              
BIT COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-MID LEVEL                     
TROUGHING PUSHES THROUGH WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NWLY USHERING IN               
COOLER/DRIER AIR STILL. MINS EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.              
SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL UNDER DEEP NW-W FLOW. MAX TEMPS IN               
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                     
.LONG TERM...MONDAY-THURSDAY.                                                   
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE E                 
COAST NEAR VA/MD ON MONDAY WHILE SFC WINDS TURN NE-E. MAY SEE A FEW             
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON WITH POPS INCREASING TUE-WED AS A FAIRLY             
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COME ACROSS THE SRN CONUS             
INITIALLY ACROSS ARKLATEX AREA 12Z TUE. NOTED 12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS AND         
ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL                    
TROUGH/SFC FRONT SO NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON ANY ONE SOLUTION. GFS                  
ENSEMBLE IS NOTICEABLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY            
CHANGES TO EXTENDED AND KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE TUE AND            
WED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLD TSTMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE             
CONSIDERING A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE OF SSW 850 MB WINDS OF 50 KT AND            
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER                
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED BY THU.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU DECK AROUND 4-5KFT HAS               
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF IT WILL             
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. AGAIN...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS            
PROBABLE FOG FORMATION IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS TEMPS WILL COOL             
VERY QUICKLY TOWARD DEWPOINT VALUES THIS EVENING AND LIKELY                     
CROSSOVER AFTERNOON MIXED DEWPOINTS BY 2-4 DEGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS            
SUGGESTS ANOTHER SET-UP FOR MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR                
CIGS TOWARD MORNING. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ADVANCING CLOUD COVER AHEAD             
OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS LIKELY TO BRING IN SOME 5-10KFT                 
BROKEN CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT MAY HINDER SOME FOG FORMATION...SO              
HAVE PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND NOT TAKEN THIS TAF SET DOWN TO            
PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS AND JUST KEPT IN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR            
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES               
INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE             
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND            
THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY WILL INCREASE NW WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS              
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND ON              
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE 10-15 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH SEAS IN THE            
2-4 FT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE                  
REGION. NEXT MAJOR FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP            
INCREASE IN WINDS AND PROBABLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG EVENTS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
WHEN 3 TO 5 HR DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DRIER             
AIR BEHIND NEXT COLD FRONT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  46  59  40  61 /  30  30  10  10                                           
SSI  51  62  45  60 /  20  30  20  10                                           
JAX  48  67  46  65 /  10  20  20  10                                           
SGJ  50  69  50  66 /  10  20  20  20                                           
GNV  47  70  46  66 /  10  20  20  10                                           
OCF  47  72  46  69 /  10  10  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/HESS/KEEGAN                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
607 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
402 AM CST                                                                      
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH                 
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN               
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS                    
MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND                 
WITH SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION FIELD DEPICTED BY BOTH WRF                
AND GFS UVM TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SUSPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER               
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN IL LATE THIS MORNING. MID/HIGH                  
LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER TODAY ANYWAY AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DIGS SOUTHEAST                 
INTO MINNESOTA AND TRANSLATES ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO                 
SATURDAY MORNING.                                                               
WINDS BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER...             
WITH DEEP LAYERED VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING TONIGHT. LOOKING                   
ISENTROPICALLY...APPEARS 285 KELVIN SURFACE INTERSECTS STRONGER                 
UVM AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15 C LATE TONIGHT WITH                    
AVERAGE MIXING RATIO DURING THE 09-15Z PERIOD AROUND 2 G/KG. THUS               
MAX SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. SIMILAR QPF                   
AMOUNTS FROM 00Z WRF/GFS...AND WITH ABOUT A 15:1 SNOW/LIQUID RATIO              
ALSO SUPPORT GENERALLY A 1-2 INCH OR 1-3 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL BY                 
THE TIME SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY                   
MORNING. SECOND VORT NOTED DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES AND                   
WISCONSIN IN WAKE OF THE FIRST MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH MAY                      
MAINTAIN SOME VERY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS. GIVEN DRYING OF MID/UPPER LEVELS NOTED IN TIME SECTIONS...               
SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE AND WEAK UVM WOULD INDICATE MAINLY JUST              
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND THE MORNING                
HOURS WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. COLD FRONT                    
PUSHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE               
CHICAGO AREA AROUND MIDDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING               
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WITH FALLING TEMPS LIKELY IN THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE                   
DEVELOPING AND SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY              
MORNING. SNOW COVER...LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR                    
PARTIAL CLEARING TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY                  
NIGHT. HAVE UNDERCUT COOLEST GUIDANCE A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTH                    
CENTRAL IL WHERE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MOST               
FAVORABLE. SURFACE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS AREA SUNDAY MORNING                  
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. YET ANOTHER IN THIS                  
RAPID FIRE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIPPLES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                   
MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
AND RESULTING WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RATHER                 
QUICKLY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA                   
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MEASURABLE SNOW.                
WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS MIDWEST...LONG WAVE TROUGH                    
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SURFACE               
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE REGION WITH INVERTED TROUGH                    
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC                 
ZONE ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT                
PRECIPITATION LINGERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN VICINITY OF THERMAL                
GRADIENT AS SERIES OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PASS THROUGH                   
LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS WHICH BECOMES QUITE SHEARED AS JET DIGS                
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO PRECIP TYPE PROVIDED              
PRECIP DOES OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN MONDAY/MONDAY PERIOD AS SOUTH                   
WINDS AHEAD OF SHEARED TROUGH AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL WARM                      
ADVECTION RESULT IN THERMAL PROFILES WHICH BECOME MARGINAL FOR                  
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. GEM AND ECMWF PARTICULARLY MILD               
AND PUSH 1540 METER 850-700 THICKNESS CONTOUR UP TO AROUND I-88                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS REMAINS COOLER AND FORECASTS SNOW AS                      
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE EVEN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL                 
MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST GFS SLANT WITH CHANCE SNOW...THOUGH WILL              
HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS NEXT FEW RUNS FOR BETTER HANDLE ON                 
THERMAL PROFILES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                               
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
605 AM CST                                                                      
1200 UTC TAFS...INCREASING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND BRISK                
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24              
TO 36 HOURS. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS                     
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AS NEXT                   
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA DIGS INTO                 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME HIGH                
END MVFR AND VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4K FT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA NOT                   
HANDLED WELL IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS                      
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND BASED ON SFC OBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS                   
WOULD EXPECTED GENERALLY VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 FT WITH THIS                      
STRATOCU TO AFFECT RFD BY 13Z AND REMAINDER OF TERMINALS IN THE                 
15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD              
BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20                
KNOTS DEVELOPING. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS               
THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF FAIRLY                
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN                       
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING A                   
PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED GUSTS AS THIS OCCURS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z                
WHEN SOME GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOT                 
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TIMING OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
SOUTHWEST CANADA TROUGH...AFFECTING RFD TOWARD 05Z AND REMAINDER                
OF TERMINALS BY 06Z OR 07Z. DURING PERIOD OF STEADIEST SNOW AFTER               
MIDNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR VSBYS AND LOW MVFR CIGS AROUND                
1000 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC               
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TAKING WINDS NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED                
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SECONDARY SHORT                 
WAVE DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                         
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
310 AM CST                                                                      
THE PARADE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO            
LAKE MICHIGAN AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH               
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL              
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WESTERLY SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS OF              
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL                 
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN AREA OF                 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THE                  
PRESSURE FALLS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE                
MICHIGAN...AND EXPECTING SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS TO DEVELOP                 
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME WILL              
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE                             
WATERS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE PRESSURE FALLS                   
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SOME SOUTHWEST GALE GUSTS CANNOT BE                  
RULED OUT EVEN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN                     
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING A POTENTIAL OF NORTHWEST GALES LATE                   
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC                  
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THIS PERIOD. IN              
TERMS OF HEADLINES...HAVE UPGRADED THE OPEN WATERS GALE WATCH TO A              
GALE WARNING WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS EVENING                    
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR                 
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND INTO                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THE NEARSHORE                 
WATERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE                     
POTENTIAL OF NORTHWEST GALES. HAZARDOUS WAVES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL              
THEN PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH MORE                    
SUBSTANTIALLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS                 
A SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                            
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-                   
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS                                    
     UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.                                                       
     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...NOON              
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1209 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATO CU OVER THE AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL                  
AFTER DARK WHEN INCRSG SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF              
THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY               
IMPACT SBN EARLY IN THE PD WITH BACKING WINDS TAKING LAKE EFFECT                
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 20Z. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER                 
SASK WILL MOVE SE TO LS WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG INTO NW INDIANA              
BY 18Z SAT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVE IN                    
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH                       
CONDITIONS THEN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW                
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH.                                     
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SW MI THIS                          
MORNING...WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS A              
NARROW SWATH OF BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY                
CLEAR SKIES RE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS              
AND FLURRIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A SUBTLE WIND              
SHIFT IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN               
THE TEENS...SAVE FOR THE FAR NW WHERE LOW 20S ARE PRESENT WITH LAKE             
MODIFIED AIR IN PLACE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE CONTINUES TO                
DISPLAY A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE PRESENT OVER             
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING...BEING              
REINFORCED BY SEVERAL FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES .THE              
NEXT RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON THE                      
REGION...IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER              
NORTHERN BC AND ALBERTA...AS 150 KNOTS PLUS OF FLOW IS PRESENT IN               
THE UPPER JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                 
TODAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DEMISE AS             
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE DGZ/FLOW TURNS MORE                             
SOUTHWESTERLY/AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION UPWIND             
OF THE LAKE. WILL LET THE ADV RIDE...AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN                  
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE                  
MORNING COMMUTE JUST AHEAD. OTHERWISE...NAM12/RUC 13 BOTH INDICATE              
VERY LITTLE QPF BEYOND 15Z. HAVE OPTED FOR DIMINISHING POPS IN THE              
AFTERNOON. LINGERING LL MOISTURE IN THE H9-H85 LAYER WILL ALLOW CU              
DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSOLATION OCCUR THIS MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD MIX              
OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PT SUNNY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THEN.             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON               
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GULF               
INFLUENCES WILL BE NONEXISTENT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE             
THE COMBINATION OF THE 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AND GUSTY                           
WINDS...CREATING POSSIBLE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY                                  
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN CAA AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM                
TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZED. FORECAST MODELS HAVE PUSHED UP THE ARRIVAL            
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED WOT PREVIOUS RUNS...OPTING FOR A SNOW              
ARRIVAL BEFORE 12Z SAT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GEFS/SREF/AND NAEFS            
ENSEMBLE RUNS WHICH ALSO PREFER THE EARLIER TREND. POTENT ISENTROPIC            
LIFT NOTED ON THE 285K SFC WITH 50 KNOTS CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW UNDER              
TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE RISES AND RATHER STEEP MD LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
CONFIRM THE SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GIVEN OMEGA MAXIMIZED             
IN THE DGZ. HAVE BLENDED FORECAST POPS UP IN LINE WITH MOS NUMBERS.             
THINGS CERTAINLY GET INTERESTING IN THE NW FA AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF            
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE LIKELY. FORECAST MODELS PROG THE GREATEST             
IMPACTS FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MI WHERE            
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE DOUBLED. NAM H925 OMEGA PLOTS DO CONFIRM                
THAT AS CAA ENSUES AND THE LL FLOW VEERS NW...LAKE EFFECT                       
ENHANCEMENT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NW FA...WITH PURE LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS/BANDING LIKELY BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL ADV OR               
WATCH/WARNING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THE BIGGEST CONCERNS.            
A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE             
LAKE BELT REGION INTO SUNDAY GIVEN NNW FLOW TENDING TO FAVOR LAKE               
SUPERIOR AGGREGATE EFFECTS.                                                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN              
THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUN                  
MORNING.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
THE LONG TERM PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE FRAMED IN A BELOW NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURE PORTRAIT. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER            
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SEVERAL            
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.                                                           
SUNDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DELTA T VALUES IN LOWER 20S WHICH            
WILL AID IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE               
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN AND ENDS LAKE EFFECT. SIMILAR TO                 
CURRENT EVENT...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STRUNG OUT             
OVER SEVERAL HOURS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS              
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF BANDS. NO HEADLINES            
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                           
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS                 
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK               
LIFT. MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STAYED WITH WELL COLLABORATED MONDAY POPS FOR NOW.             
THIS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STILL HAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH                     
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CA                 
COAST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO PLAINS ON MONDAY. QUESTION                
REMAINS ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM AND STRENGTH OF               
DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER              
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EARLIER                 
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM. SIMILAR PATTERN LAST YEAR SAW A            
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES AND MODELS WERE             
SLOW TO CATCH ON. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ESTABLISHED TROPICAL             
PACIFIC PLUME INTO THE BAJA AREA...SOUTH OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT CURRENT             
GRIDS HAVE RAIN OR SNOW FOR TUESDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY            
OF FA. PLAN TO KEEP THIS FOR NOW AND INCREASED POPS INTO MID CHANCE             
CATEGORY. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TUE THROUGH THURSDAY               
TIME FRAME WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND STRONGER ENERGY DIGGING              
INTO PLAINS TOWARD END OF PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
419 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SW MI THIS                          
MORNING...WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS A              
NARROW SWATH OF BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY                
CLEAR SKIES RE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS              
AND FLURRIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A SUBTLE WIND              
SHIFT IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN               
THE TEENS...SAVE FOR THE FAR NW WHERE LOW 20S ARE PRESENT WITH LAKE             
MODIFIED AIR IN PLACE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE CONTINUES TO                
DISPLAY A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE PRESENT OVER             
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING...BEING              
REINFORCED BY SEVERAL FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES .THE              
NEXT RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON THE                      
REGION...IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER              
NORTHERN BC AND ALBERTA...AS 150 KNOTS PLUS OF FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE           
UPPER JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                     
TODAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DEMISE AS             
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE DGZ/FLOW TURNS MORE                             
SOUTHWESTERLY/AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION UPWIND             
OF THE LAKE. WILL LET THE ADV RIDE...AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN                  
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE                  
MORNING COMMUTE JUST AHEAD. OTHERWISE...NAM12/RUC 13 BOTH INDICATE              
VERY LITTLE QPF BEYOND 15Z. HAVE OPTED FOR DIMINISHING POPS IN THE              
AFTERNOON. LINGERING LL MOISTURE IN THE H9-H85 LAYER WILL ALLOW CU              
DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSOLATION OCCUR THIS MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD MIX              
OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PT SUNNY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THEN.             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON               
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GULF               
INFLUENCES WILL BE NONEXISTENT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE             
THE COMBINATION OF THE 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AND GUSTY                           
WINDS...CREATING POSSIBLE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY                                  
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN CAA AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM                
TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZED. FORECAST MODELS HAVE PUSHED UP THE ARRIVAL            
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED WOT PREVIOUS RUNS...OPTING FOR A SNOW              
ARRIVAL BEFORE 12Z SAT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GEFS/SREF/AND NAEFS            
ENSEMBLE RUNS WHICH ALSO PREFER THE EARLIER TREND. POTENT ISENTROPIC            
LIFT NOTED ON THE 285K SFC WITH 50 KNOTS CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW UNDER              
TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE RISES AND RATHER STEEP MD LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
CONFIRM THE SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GIVEN OMEGA MAXIMIZED             
IN THE DGZ. HAVE BLENDED FORECAST POPS UP IN LINE WITH MOS NUMBERS.             
THINGS CERTAINLY GET INTERESTING IN THE NW FA AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF            
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE LIKELY. FORECAST MODELS PROG THE GREATEST             
IMPACTS FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MI WHERE            
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE DOUBLED. NAM H925 OMEGA PLOTS DO CONFIRM                
THAT AS CAA ENSUES AND THE LL FLOW VEERS NW...LAKE EFFECT                       
ENHANCEMENT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NW FA...WITH PURE LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS/BANDING LIKELY BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL ADV OR               
WATCH/WARNING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THE BIGGEST CONCERNS.            
A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE             
LAKE BELT REGION INTO SUNDAY GIVEN NNW FLOW TENDING TO FAVOR LAKE               
SUPERIOR AGGREGATE EFFECTS.                                                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE          
20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUN MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                   
THE LONG TERM PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE FRAMED IN A BELOW NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURE PORTRAIT. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER            
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SEVERAL            
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.                                                           
SUNDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DELTA T VALUES IN LOWER 20S WHICH            
WILL AID IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE               
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN AND ENDS LAKE EFFECT. SIMILAR TO                 
CURRENT EVENT...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STRUNG OUT             
OVER SEVERAL HOURS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS              
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF BANDS. NO HEADLINES            
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                           
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS                 
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK               
LIFT. MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STAYED WITH WELL COLLABORATED MONDAY POPS FOR NOW.             
THIS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STILL HAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH                     
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CA                 
COAST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO PLAINS ON MONDAY. QUESTION                
REMAINS ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM AND STRENGTH OF               
DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER              
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EARLIER                 
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM. SIMILAR PATTERN LAST YEAR SAW A            
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES AND MODELS WERE             
SLOW TO CATCH ON. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ESTABLISHED TROPICAL             
PACIFIC PLUME INTO THE BAJA AREA...SOUTH OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT CURRENT             
GRIDS HAVE RAIN OR SNOW FOR TUESDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY            
OF FA. PLAN TO KEEP THIS FOR NOW AND INCREASED POPS INTO MID CHANCE             
CATEGORY. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TUE THROUGH THURSDAY               
TIME FRAME WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND STRONGER ENERGY DIGGING              
INTO PLAINS TOWARD END OF PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. VARYING CIGS DOWN TO 1.5KFT AND VISBYS DOWN               
TO 1/2 MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...WHICH WILL BE                   
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MI. SBN WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY                
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE...SCT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST...WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS                 
WILL BACK SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION.                                     
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ077>079.             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT             
     FOR LMZ043-046.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1229 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. VARYING CIGS DOWN TO 1.5KFT AND VISBYS DOWN               
TO 1/2 MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...WHICH WILL BE                   
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MI. SBN WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY                
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE...SCT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST...WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS                 
WILL BACK SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SW LOWER MI...WITH                  
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS PRODUCING ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES PER                 
SPOTTER REPORTS. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND                    
INTENSITY PER COOLING ALOFT PER AN ADVANCING UPPER WAVE...ALLOWING              
LAKE INDUCED CAPES TO RISE TO NEARLY 600 J/KG...WITH MAX UPWARD                 
OMEGA IN THE DGZ. WITH BUFR PROGS SUPPORTING CAPES AROUND 400-600               
J/KG THROUGH ABOUT NOON WITH FAVORABLE FETCH AND LL UPWIND RH OF                
AT LEAST 60 PERCENT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE SNOW ADV FOR ACCUMS OF                 
2-4 INCHES WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL                  
FRIDAY MORNING...TRENDING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO JUST FLURRIES BY                   
AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE RUC13 AND NAM12                        
QPF...WHICH PLACES MAXIMUM VALUES IN CASS AND WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH              
/MI/...WHERE 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BASED ON A 23:1 RATIO.                    
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS...ALL ELSE IN GOOD SHAPE.             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
CAA/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS CONTS OVER THE GRTLKS REGION...INCLUDING             
NE 1/2 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS OCCURRED MUCH            
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MI AND ADJACENT NRN INDIANA                       
COUNTIES...HWVR INVERSION WHICH TAMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE IS BASED              
AROUND 3-5KFT...ALONG WITH SHORT WNW FETCH HAS LIMITED INTENSITY                
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT                 
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHRTWV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPR                
MS VALLEY WITH A SFC REFLECTION SEEN IN SFC OBS MOVG INTO NW IL                 
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR               
CWA TONIGHT PSBLY CAUSING SOME FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT                  
AREAS. ALSO INVERSION WILL RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES                     
THROUGH WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW                     
SHOWERS... THOUGH CONTD SHORT FETCH WILL STILL BE LIMITING FACTOR               
TO SGFNT ACCUMS...WENT WITH 1-2" OVER SRN MI WITH <1" IN ADJACENT               
IN/OH COUNTIES. H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND -15C IN OUR                
CWA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THIS AIRMASS IN                   
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. WITH LESS SNOW COVER IN OUR AREA THAN IA/NRN               
IL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...KEPT LOWS             
IN THE TEENS.                                                                   
WITH THERMAL TROF MOVG ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...TEMPS ONLY                   
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L-M20S. SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                
AREA DURING THE DAY CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TO SW BRINGING LAKE EFFECT            
TO AN END ACROSS OUR CWA BY EVE WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF NRN                  
BERRIEN COUNTY. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS QUESTIONABLE. BOTH NAM AND GFS                 
INDICATE H925 WILL BE SATURATED...BUT THIS LAYER WAS TOO MOIST IN               
MODELS TODAY...SO OPTIMISTICALLY WENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES                   
AGAIN ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                            
ANOTHER STRONG CDFNT WILL DROP SE INTO THE WRN GRTLKS FRI NIGHT. ANY            
REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE               
EVE AS SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING             
INTO THE AREA AHD OF THE UPR TROF SO EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
WITH LITTLE TEMP DROP. CONTD WITH SMALL CHC OF SNOW FOR LATE FRI                
NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES...BUT STILL APPEARS BEST CHC OF SNOW                  
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE SATURDAY.                                                
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                      
CONTINUED COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH              
QUICK CLIPPER AND LAKE EFFECT SAT NITE/SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                  
POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US MIDWEEK.                  
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING NW CWA AS SFC                     
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SIGNIFICANT TIMING                    
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SLOWER NAM/FASTER GFS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE              
CWA ON SATURDAY AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE TIMING OF 09Z SREF AS A                 
COMPROMISE.  HWVR AS AN ADDNL NOD TO MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THE PREV            
SYSTEM HAVE MAINTAINED EARLIER POPS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND                    
UNDERCUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS QPF BY A MARGINAL AMOUNT AS THE 12Z GFS            
DECREASED QPF FROM 00Z/06Z RUNS POSSIBLY FORESHADOWING SIMILAR                  
OUTCOME OF REALIZING LESSER AMOUNTS.  NET RESULT IS LIGHT/MOD SNOW              
SETTLING IN SATURDAY MORNING AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA WITH                  
RELATIVELY MINOR SYNOPTIC QPF AMOUNTS.  ZONE-OMEGA TECHNIQUE                    
INDICATES SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TRANSLATING TO 2-3 INCH              
SNOW TOTALS TAPERING OFF FROM NW TOWARDS THE SE. AS SYNOPTIC FORCING            
WANES IN WAKE OF SFC LOW WINDS TURNING NW PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SETUP             
BEGINNING AROUND 00Z SAT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS             
SHOW DELTA-T`S PEAKING AT 20 DEG WITH INVERSION LOCATED IN LOW END              
OF GROWTH ZONE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL 20KT WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER. HAVE            
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN LOCATION OF EQL LEVELS            
HWVR POTENTIAL EXITS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH SMALL CHANGE IN             
THERMAL PROFILE FAVORING BETTER SNOW GROWTH.                                    
UPR TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY             
SHUTTING DOWN ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT MECHANISM AND WARMING TEMPS              
BACK TO UPPER 20S AND INTO LOW 30S FOR TUESDAY.  RELIEF IS                      
POTENTIALLY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG               
MID WEEK STORM TAKING SHAPE AS SFC LOW EJECTS NE THROUGH THE EASTERN            
US WHILE SECOND DEEPER LOW WRAPS UP NEAR BASE OF MID LEVEL TROF                 
ALONG GOMEX WHILE A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE US FOLLOWS.                     
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AS ONE               
WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT SO HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GO BEYOND THE BIG            
PICTURE WHICH PAINTS POPS MON-WED AND COLDER TEMPS BEHIND FRONT ON              
WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT LATE WEEK TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE AS GFS TENDS TO             
CONSISTENTLY OVERDO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND ECMWF              
IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVANCEMENT OF COLD AIR INTO THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STAY TUNED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ077>079.             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
UPDATE...JC                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
950 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER ROUND OF UPDATES WERE SENT OUT AROUND 9 PM.  THE MAIN                   
CHANGES WERE TO REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST            
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND INCREASE WINDS             
TONIGHT.  00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE WARM FROM EXTENDING SOUTH               
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE H8 FRONT OVER EASTERN IA AND THE                  
ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOW RAPIDLY             
DEVELOPED FROM MN SE INTO NORTHEAST IA THIS EVENING IN ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT.  ONE BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE            
NORTHERN CWA AND HAS PRODUCED VSBYS AROUND 1 MILE FOR A BRIEF TIME.             
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE WAS SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW MOVING                
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN CWA                 
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  CURRENT PCPN TRENDS COMBINED WITH RUC/NAM                     
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF              
I80.  SO AMOUNTS AND POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK SOME OVER THE SOUTHERN              
CWA WITH LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE                 
NORTH.  CWA WILL ALSO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH              
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS HELPING TEMPS RISE SLOWLY MOST OF             
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
...DLF...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CWFA CURRENTLY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR             
CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI THROUGH EARLY            
SATURDAY MORNING.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBRL                   
OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO                 
20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25KTS TO 30KTS RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT.                 
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND              
18Z SATURDAY EXPECT STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH MAY                
CAUSE SOME REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW.  ALSO EXPECTING MVFR CIGS             
MOST OF THE DAY.                                                                
...DLF...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HAASE/NICHOLS                                                                   
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
330 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SKIES CLEAR ATTIM WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING /SUBSIDENCE/ IN THE WAKE OF             
STORM. THIS ALONG WITH FRESH SNOW COVER RESULTING IN VERY COLD                  
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-8 KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS               
IN RANGE OF AROUND ZERO TO 8 BELOW. CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY AS                    
SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH                 
WESTERN IA IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT... WHICH DENOTES LEADING EDGE               
OF MAIN ARCTIC SURGE WHERE H85 TEMPS DROP IN RANGE OF -13 TO -17C               
AND H7 TEMPS IN RANGE OF -19 TO -24C. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME                 
FLURRIES WITH CLOUDS WITH MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF -SN ACROSS                  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF VORT MAX IN REGION OF H85-H7 QG                
CONVERGENCE.    ..05..                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE BY AFTN WITH GUSTY/BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.                
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IN ADVANCE TO PUSH ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING WITH             
STRATOCU DEVELOPING WITH ANY BREAKS AS COLD POOL MOVES IN...                    
RESULTING IN SKIES GENERALLY BECOMING PTCLDY/MOCLDY... WITH SOME                
FLURRIES. WATCHING AREA OF -SN OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH VORT MAX AND               
LOW/MID LEVEL QG CONVERGENCE. LATEST RUC EXPANDS QG CONVERGENCE IN              
H85-H7 LAYER SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING THEN               
SHUNTS IT TO THE EAST AS AFTN PROGRESSES WITH VORT MAX PASSING TO               
THE NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH OF I 80 TO ACCOUNT           
FOR POTENTIAL FOR FEW POCKETS OF -SN/SHSN WITH ASCENT AND COMBINATION           
OF HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TEMPS SHOULD               
UNDERACHIEVE TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF MAIN ARCTIC SURGE...FRESH SNOW               
COVER AND CLOUDS... THUS PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH GENERAL              
RANGE OF 20-25 DEGS ON MAXES. WOULDN/T BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE               
TEMPS SLIP BACK A FEW DEGS BY AFTN NORTHWEST SECTIONS.                          
TONIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE EVE               
WITH PTCLDY TO AREAS OF MOCLDY. THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING                  
EXPECTED OVRNGT AS BROAD/WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. SETUP LOOKS                
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING THUS BANKING ON ENOUGH WIND OF 3-7 KTS TO               
PREVENT SUB ZERO READINGS... BUT ONCE AGAIN WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS            
WITH FEW TEENS AND SIDED CLOSE TO LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.     ..05..              
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...                                   
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 00Z RUN ECMWF...DGEX AND GFS             
AGREE ON NORTHWEST FLOW TO LEE OF WEST COAST REX TYPE BLOCK TO                  
EVENTUALLY DUMP A RIDGE-RIDING WAVE CLIPPER-STYLE DOWN ACRS THE                 
WESTERN GRT LKS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH STILL SOME VARIATION             
IN EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD DIGGING AND STRENGTH. WAA AHEAD OF THIS                  
FEATURE TO BE REALIZED MAINLY ALOFT...WITH SFC TEMPS ON FRI ONLY                
RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS. IMPRESSIVE NOCTURNAL              
LLJ OF 50 KTS REALLY WAA/S FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER...               
WITH SFC TEMPS PROBABLY SHOWING A STEADY OR SLOW RISE PHENOMENA                 
EVEN OVER A SNOW PACK AND INCOMING SWATH OF SNOW. TAKING A BLEND OF             
THE FORCING AND 1000-H5 MB SATURATION OF THE 00Z GFS AND NEW                    
ECMWF...AS WELL AS THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED LSR/S...IT STILL               
APPEARS/CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST                 
HALF OF THE DVN CWA TO RECEIVE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ON SNOW MAINLY                
FROM 06Z-15Z SAT. CONTINUED WAA INTO EARLY SAT MAY HELP HIGHS REACH             
NEAR FREEZING BY LATE MORNING...BEFORE THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT AGAIN               
POST-FRONTALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN-BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH            
SNOW COVER MAY ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO DIP TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY               
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE             
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING INLAND POSSIBLY IN A             
EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW REGIME...AND THEN PHASE INTO ANOTHER BROAD                  
SCALE L/W TROF ACRS THE MID CONUS AND GRT LKS BY NEXT WED. THE ECMWF            
MAY BE IMPACTED BY SMALLER SCALE NUISANCE TYPE SYSTEMS...WITH THE               
MORE ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT TO THE SOUTH AND           
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA/DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE EXTENT OF           
PHASING/ AND EVENTUALLY TURNING INTO A NORTHEASTER. INTERESTING THE             
EXTENT OF COLD THAT THE NEW 00Z GFS ADVERTISES DUMPING DOWN ACRS                
THE CWA BY NEXT WED TO WEST OF A SOUTHERLY ORIENTED POLAR VORTEX OVER           
LK MICHIGAN...A -30 C H85 MB POOL. IF THIS WHERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD              
SUPPORT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS DIFFERS GREATLY            
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ACTUALLY IN A WAA REGIME ACRS THE LOCAL             
AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING ACRS THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE IS GREAT                
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY               
CHANGES FOR MONDAY ON.     ..12..                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SFC COLD FRONT DENOTING MAIN SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE            
REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING                   
NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES             
STEEPEN. BAND OF CLOUDS IN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE IN ADVANCE                
OF SFC FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ANY BREAKS               
OR CLEARING TO FILL IN WITH COLD AIR STRATOCU WITH CIGS MVFR TO VFR             
RANGE THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME FLURRIES. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                  
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE E/SE WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF              
PERIOD OF -SN WITH 3-5 MI VSBYS IMPACTING KDBQ TERMINAL 14Z-18Z                 
TIMEFRAME. VFR CIGS WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED TNGT AS             
WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT            
3-7 KTS.     ..05..                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/12                                                                           
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
132 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
REMOVED MORNING AND AFTERNOON WORDING FROM ZONE FORECAST TEXT                   
PRODUCT. HOURLY OBS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE              
FALLING A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT OVERALL                
THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO AND REMAIN IN THE              
LOWER AND MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. A PRETTY GOOD SNOW SHOWER WAS                 
ONGOING AT AFD ISSUANCE AT JKL...WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING             
UP ON RADAR SOUTH OF THE WEATHER OFFICE. THESE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES            
ARE LIKELY LARGE WET SNOW FLAKES. CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF RAIN AND            
SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GENERAL 30-50           
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BOARD. LATEST RADAR LOOP             
INDICATES THAT NEW PRECIPITATION AREAS ARE FORMING BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...BUT THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS            
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INDICATED. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP            
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON TRENDS OBSERVED IN THIS MORNINGS SURFACE            
OBS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ZONES HAVE               
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.                                                            
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/                                                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER FROPA...DROPPING INTO THE               
LOWER TO MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING. THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER             
LINE SEEMS TO BE LINING UP WELL WITH THE 1304 H10-H8 THICKNESS LINE             
ON THE RUC. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP HAS BEEN            
DIMINISHING...WITH NOT MANY STATIONS TO OUR WEST REPORTING SNOW ATTM.           
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPOT ABOVE              
2500 FEET NEAT THE VIRGINIA BORDER MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO.             
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL            
BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD HELP A FEW MORE AREAS           
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVES IN BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP CUT OFF              
ANY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS IN TONIGHT. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE            
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK H5 TROF SWINGS                
THROUGH. CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE                  
FORECAST ATTM. SHOULD BE RATHER COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN             
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. MANY VALLEY AREAS WILL                 
LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE              
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT               
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW                
COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME RAIN IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH. DID           
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME FOR SATURDAY...CONSIDERING A COLD START AND              
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.                                                         
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                 
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY                
NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT              
IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLUMN WILL COOL              
QUICKLY SUPPORTING ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.                   
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH            
PROGGED 850 MB AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIKELY ONLY SUPPORTING MID 30S AT               
BEST.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST WARM            
UP ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.                        
MODELS THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                
PLAINS SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS             
LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA IS ON TUESDAY               
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BASED LARGELY ON THE 03/12Z GFS AND NCEP                     
ENSEMBLE. 03/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ANY               
PRECIP OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS                
ONLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND MENTION               
ONLY RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS SUPPORT FOR A POSSIBLE              
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY            
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE AREA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW            
AND RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                 
PASSES BY. CLOUDS ARE IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AND        
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST                  
BETWEEN 19Z AND 2Z...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE THE LOW                  
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. VFR SHOULD THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE                 
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM/AR                                                             
LONG TERM....ABE                                                                
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1107 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
REMOVED MORNING AND AFTERNOON WORDING FROM ZONE FORECAST TEXT                   
PRODUCT. HOURLY OBS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE              
FALLING A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT OVERALL                
THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO AND REMAIN IN THE              
LOWER AND MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. A PRETTY GOOD SNOW SHOWER WAS                 
ONGOING AT AFD ISSUANCE AT JKL...WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING             
UP ON RADAR SOUTH OF THE WEATHER OFFICE. THESE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES            
ARE LIKELY LARGE WET SNOW FLAKES. CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF RAIN AND            
SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GENERAL 30-50           
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BOARD. LATEST RADAR LOOP             
INDICATES THAT NEW PRECIPITATION AREAS ARE FORMING BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...BUT THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS            
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INDICATED. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP            
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON TRENDS OBSERVED IN THIS MORNINGS SURFACE            
OBS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ZONES HAVE               
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.                                                            
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/                                                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER FROPA...DROPPING INTO THE               
LOWER TO MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING. THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER             
LINE SEEMS TO BE LINING UP WELL WITH THE 1304 H10-H8 THICKNESS LINE             
ON THE RUC. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP HAS BEEN            
DIMINISHING...WITH NOT MANY STATIONS TO OUR WEST REPORTING SNOW ATTM.           
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPOT ABOVE              
2500 FEET NEAT THE VIRGINIA BORDER MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO.             
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL            
BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD HELP A FEW MORE AREAS           
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVES IN BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP CUT OFF              
ANY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS IN TONIGHT. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE            
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK H5 TROF SWINGS                
THROUGH. CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE                  
FORECAST ATTM. SHOULD BE RATHER COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN             
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. MANY VALLEY AREAS WILL                 
LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE              
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT               
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW                
COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME RAIN IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH. DID           
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME FOR SATURDAY...CONSIDERING A COLD START AND              
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.                                                         
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                 
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY                
NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT              
IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLUMN WILL COOL              
QUICKLY SUPPORTING ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.                   
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH            
PROGGED 850 MB AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIKELY ONLY SUPPORTING MID 30S AT               
BEST.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST WARM            
UP ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.                        
MODELS THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                
PLAINS SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS             
LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA IS ON TUESDAY               
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BASED LARGELY ON THE 03/12Z GFS AND NCEP                     
ENSEMBLE. 03/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ANY               
PRECIP OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS                
ONLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND MENTION               
ONLY RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS SUPPORT FOR A POSSIBLE              
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY            
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE                  
BY 14Z. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE                
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z.                
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO              
SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIPITATION                
ENDS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM/AR                                                             
LONG TERM....ABE                                                                
AVIATION...HAL                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
658 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
AT 3 AM A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH OHIO TO            
WEST OF LEX...TO BNA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS                        
MORNING...SPREADING RAIN OVER THE AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER            
DYNAMICS IN PLACE AS WELL. BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST                        
PERIOD...12Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM NEAR MOREHEAD TO                
LONDON. WILL MENTION 100 POPS FROM THE FRONT AND POINTS EAST...BUT              
WILL KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEST OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING            
FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH WITH FRONT             
CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA AT 12Z. WILL GENERALLY HAVE UPPER 30S TO              
MID 40S FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER              
FROPA...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE            
PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING. THE           
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE SEEMS TO BE LINING UP WELL WITH THE 1304              
H10-H8 THICKNESS LINE ON THE RUC. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE POST              
FRONTAL PRECIP HAS BEEN DIMINISHING...WITH NOT MANY STATIONS TO OUR             
WEST REPORTING SNOW ATTM. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH           
AN ISOLATED SPOT ABOVE 2500 FEET NEAT THE VIRGINIA BORDER MAY SEE UP            
TO A HALF INCH OR SO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH            
COULD HELP A FEW MORE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO LINGER IN THE             
SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.                                           
DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVES IN BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP CUT OFF              
ANY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS IN TONIGHT. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE            
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK H5 TROF SWINGS                
THROUGH. CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE                  
FORECAST ATTM. SHOULD BE RATHER COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN             
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. MANY VALLEY AREAS WILL                 
LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE              
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT               
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW                
COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME RAIN IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH. DID           
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME FOR SATURDAY...CONSIDERING A COLD START AND              
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.                                                         
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                 
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY                
NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT              
IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLUMN WILL COOL              
QUICKLY SUPPORTING ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.                   
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH            
PROGGED 850 MB AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIKELY ONLY SUPPORTING MID 30S AT               
BEST.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST WARM            
UP ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.                        
MODELS THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                
PLAINS SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS             
LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA IS ON TUESDAY               
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BASED LARGELY ON THE 03/12Z GFS AND NCEP                     
ENSEMBLE. 03/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ANY               
PRECIP OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS                
ONLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND MENTION               
ONLY RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS SUPPORT FOR A POSSIBLE              
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY            
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED                                              
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE                  
BY 14Z. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE                
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z.                
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO              
SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIPITATION                
ENDS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM                                                                
LONG TERM....ABE                                                                
AVIATION...HAL                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
324 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED                                
AT 3 AM A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH OHIO TO            
WEST OF LEX...TO BNA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS                        
MORNING...SPREADING RAIN OVER THE AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER            
DYNAMICS IN PLACE AS WELL. BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST                        
PERIOD...12Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM NEAR MOREHEAD TO                
LONDON. WILL MENTION 100 POPS FROM THE FRONT AND POINTS EAST...BUT              
WILL KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEST OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING            
FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH WITH FRONT             
CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA AT 12Z. WILL GENERALLY HAVE UPPER 30S TO              
MID 40S FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER              
FROPA...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE            
PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING. THE           
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE SEEMS TO BE LINING UP WELL WITH THE 1304              
H10-H8 THICKNESS LINE ON THE RUC. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE POST              
FRONTAL PRECIP HAS BEEN DIMINISHING...WITH NOT MANY STATIONS TO OUR             
WEST REPORTING SNOW ATTM. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH           
AN ISOLATED SPOT ABOVE 2500 FEET NEAT THE VIRGINIA BORDER MAY SEE UP            
TO A HALF INCH OR SO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH            
COULD HELP A FEW MORE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO LINGER IN THE             
SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.                                           
DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVES IN BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP CUT OFF              
ANY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS IN TONIGHT. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE            
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK H5 TROF SWINGS                
THROUGH. CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE                  
FORECAST ATTM. SHOULD BE RATHER COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN             
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. MANY VALLEY AREAS WILL                 
LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE              
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT               
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW                
COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME RAIN IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH. DID           
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME FOR SATURDAY...CONSIDERING A COLD START AND              
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.                                                         
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                 
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY                
NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT              
IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLUMN WILL COOL              
QUICKLY SUPPORTING ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.                   
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH            
PROGGED 850 MB AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIKELY ONLY SUPPORTING MID 30S AT               
BEST.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST WARM            
UP ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.                        
MODELS THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                
PLAINS SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS             
LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA IS ON TUESDAY               
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BASED LARGELY ON THE 03/12Z GFS AND NCEP                     
ENSEMBLE. 03/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ANY               
PRECIP OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS                
ONLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND MENTION               
ONLY RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS SUPPORT FOR A POSSIBLE              
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY            
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE                  
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF           
THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND                
SHEAR UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF RAIN                
WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.                
ABOVE 2500 FEET NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR               
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD            
IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE           
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AROUND 15Z AND REACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER AREAS AROUND 21Z.              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM                                                                
LONG TERM...ABE                                                                 
AVIATION...HAL                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1204 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING              
BUT IS BEGINNING TO ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS DRIER AIR                 
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/MVFR CEILINGS                 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA BUT                  
SLOWLY RISE BEFORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING TO SKC. KAEX WILL SEE MORE               
RAPID DISSIPATION OF OVC WITH SKC POSSIBLE MUCH SOONER THAN                     
CURRENTLY FORECAST. COULD ALSO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE AT                   
KLCH/KLFT/KARA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS               
WILL REMAIN NNE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT                 
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.                                                             
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED                 
OVERNIGHT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SERN MS/SERN LA. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW               
ALL BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE                    
AREA...THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OFF ATCHAFALAYA BAY.                   
THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED POPS FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE REST OF                
THE DAY. MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE                      
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON TEMPS. VIS                   
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE                     
EXTREME NRN ZONES AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET                 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMP GRIDS BASED               
ON LATEST TRENDS BUT WITH MINIMAL CHANGES...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS                  
OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS WERE DROPPED A CAT OR TWO.                      
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL TRAVEL                 
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING. INTRUDING DRY AIR...ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE MONTANA HIGH...WILL SLOWLY WEAR AWAY THE POST-FRONTAL                  
STRATUS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE LAKES                  
REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE BEAUMONT-LAKE                        
CHARLES-ALEXANDRIA AIRWAY BY MIDAFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LINGER                  
AROUND THE LAFAYETTE-MORGAN CITY AIRWAY UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.               
COLD-ADVECTIONAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN BLOWING OUT OF THE                  
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.                                                      
TRARES                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                           
SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL               
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM                  
EXPECTED MAXIMUMS AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS               
DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF                 
THE FRONT WHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVER ACADIANA DURING THE MORNING.      
THERES A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LAKES AREA OF                      
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 20S SATURDAY MORNING AS THE              
COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THAT AREA. ANOTHER LIGHT                    
FREEZE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AS WINDS                     
FINALLY DECOUPLE.                                                               
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RESURGENT POLAR HIGH NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM                
CANADA, REINFORCING OUR NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS.                         
SHORT TERM...LIKE SHOOTING FISH IN A BARREL ON EXPECTED DAY TIME                
MAX TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IN THE                      
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CHILLS TEMPS INTO                 
THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THAT SAME STRATCU DECK AND BRISK WINDS SHOULD           
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUNGING TOO LOW TNITE. CLEARING SKIES AND                 
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM                  
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.                                   
LONG TERM...GFS AND EURO HINTING AT A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN AND              
POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF A GOOD WARM                 
SECTOR AND A STRONG SOUTHERN JET.                                               
MARINE...COULD NOT RULE OUT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEAR                   
SHORE WATERS WHEN TAKING THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO                         
CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH RUC/NAM/GFS 20 KNOTTERS SO HOISTED THE                 
SCA FOR THAT AREA AND EXTENDED THE SCAS TIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  57  39  50  34  58 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KBPT  55  37  50  34  59 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KAEX  53  33  47  29  53 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KLFT  58  43  49  34  56 /  20   0   0  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX                  
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO                       
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER                          
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...                    
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1025 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED                
OVERNIGHT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SERN MS/SERN LA. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW               
ALL BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE                    
AREA...THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OFF ATCHAFALAYA BAY.                   
THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED POPS FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE REST OF                
THE DAY. MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE                      
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON TEMPS. VIS                   
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE                     
EXTREME NRN ZONES AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET                 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMP GRIDS BASED               
ON LATEST TRENDS BUT WITH MINIMAL CHANGES...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS                  
OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS WERE DROPPED A CAT OR TWO.                      
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL TRAVEL                 
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING. INTRUDING DRY AIR...ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE MONTANA HIGH...WILL SLOWLY WEAR AWAY THE POST-FRONTAL                  
STRATUS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE LAKES                  
REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE BEAUMONT-LAKE                        
CHARLES-ALEXANDRIA AIRWAY BY MIDAFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LINGER                  
AROUND THE LAFAYETTE-MORGAN CITY AIRWAY UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.               
COLD-ADVECTIONAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN BLOWING OUT OF THE                  
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.                                                      
TRARES                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                           
SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL               
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM                  
EXPECTED MAXIMUMS AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS               
DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF                 
THE FRONT WHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVER ACADIANA DURING THE MORNING.      
THERES A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LAKES AREA OF                      
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 20S SATURDAY MORNING AS THE              
COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THAT AREA. ANOTHER LIGHT                    
FREEZE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AS WINDS                     
FINALLY DECOUPLE.                                                               
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RESURGENT POLAR HIGH NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM                
CANADA, REINFORCING OUR NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS.                         
SHORT TERM...LIKE SHOOTING FISH IN A BARREL ON EXPECTED DAY TIME                
MAX TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IN THE                      
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CHILLS TEMPS INTO                 
THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THAT SAME STRATCU DECK AND BRISK WINDS SHOULD           
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUNGING TOO LOW TNITE. CLEARING SKIES AND                 
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM                  
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.                                   
LONG TERM...GFS AND EURO HINTING AT A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN AND              
POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF A GOOD WARM                 
SECTOR AND A STRONG SOUTHERN JET.                                               
MARINE...COULD NOT RULE OUT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEAR                   
SHORE WATERS WHEN TAKING THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO                         
CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH RUC/NAM/GFS 20 KNOTTERS SO HOISTED THE                 
SCA FOR THAT AREA AND EXTENDED THE SCAS TIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  57  39  50  34  58 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KBPT  55  37  50  34  59 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KAEX  53  33  47  29  53 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KLFT  58  43  49  34  56 /  20   0   0  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX                  
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO                       
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER                          
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...                    
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
520 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL TRAVEL                 
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING. INTRUDING DRY AIR...ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE MONTANA HIGH...WILL SLOWLY WEAR AWAY THE POST-FRONTAL                  
STRATUS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE LAKES                  
REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE BEAUMONT-LAKE                        
CHARLES-ALEXANDRIA AIRWAY BY MIDAFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LINGER                  
AROUND THE LAFAYETTE-MORGAN CITY AIRWAY UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.               
COLD-ADVECTIONAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN BLOWING OUT OF THE                  
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.                                                      
TRARES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                          
SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL               
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM                  
EXPECTED MAXIMUMS AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS               
DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF                 
THE FRONT WHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVER ACADIANA DURING THE MORNING.      
THERES A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LAKES AREA OF                      
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 20S SATURDAY MORNING AS THE              
COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THAT AREA. ANOTHER LIGHT                    
FREEZE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AS WINDS                     
FINALLY DECOUPLE.                                                               
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RESURGENT POLAR HIGH NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM                
CANADA, REINFORCING OUR NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS.                         
SHORT TERM...LIKE SHOOTING FISH IN A BARREL ON EXPECTED DAY TIME                
MAX TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IN THE                      
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CHILLS TEMPS INTO                 
THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THAT SAME STRATCU DECK AND BRISK WINDS SHOULD           
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUNGING TOO LOW TNITE. CLEARING SKIES AND                 
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM                  
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.                                   
LONG TERM...GFS AND EURO HINTING AT A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN AND              
POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF A GOOD WARM                 
SECTOR AND A STRONG SOUTHERN JET.                                               
MARINE...COULD NOT RULE OUT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEAR                   
SHORE WATERS WHEN TAKING THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO                         
CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH RUC/NAM/GFS 20 KNOTTERS SO HOISTED THE                 
SCA FOR THAT AREA AND EXTENDED THE SCAS TIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  54  39  50  34  58 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KBPT  52  37  50  34  59 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KAEX  51  33  47  29  53 /  10   0   0  10  10                                  
KLFT  64  43  49  34  56 /  20   0   0  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX                  
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO                       
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER                          
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...                    
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
448 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL              
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM                  
EXPECTED MAXIMUMS AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS               
DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF                 
THE FRONT WHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVER ACADIANA DURING THE MORNING.      
THERES A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LAKES AREA OF                      
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 20S SATURDAY MORNING AS THE              
COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THAT AREA. ANOTHER LIGHT                    
FREEZE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AS WINDS                     
FINALLY DECOUPLE.                                                               
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RESURGENT POLAR HIGH NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM                
CANADA, REINFORCING OUR NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...LIKE SHOOTING FISH IN A BARREL ON EXPECTED DAY TIME               
MAX TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IN THE                      
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CHILLS TEMPS INTO                 
THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THAT SAME STRATCU DECK AND BRISK WINDS SHOULD           
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUNGING TOO LOW TNITE. CLEARING SKIES AND                 
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM                  
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...GFS AND EURO HINTING AT A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN AND              
POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF A GOOD WARM                 
SECTOR AND A STRONG SOUTHERN JET.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...COULD NOT RULE OUT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEAR                  
SHORE WATERS WHEN TAKING THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO                         
CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH RUC/NAM/GFS 20 KNOTTERS SO HOISTED THE                 
SCA FOR THAT AREA AND EXTENDED THE SCAS TIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  54  39  50  34  58 /  10   0   0  10   5                                  
KBPT  52  37  50  34  59 /  10   0   0  10   5                                  
KAEX  51  33  47  29  53 /  10   0   0  10   5                                  
KLFT  64  43  49  34  56 /  20   0   0  10   5                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING                
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                 
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX                  
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO                       
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER                          
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SWEENEY                                                                         
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
535 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL                      
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH                 
WILL DEVELOP ONE LOW CENTER NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND ANOTHER                  
OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE TWO LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE               
OVER THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LABRADOR ON               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUDS AND THE SCA FOR THE MARINE SECTION.                
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR N                        
(MEZ002,005-006) DUE TO A BAND OF SNOW IN ASSOCN W/SOME PVA FROM                
THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING IN FROM QUEBEC. LESS THAN AN INCH OF            
SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW RATIO AROUND 20:1. BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR WHAT THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE            
TO THE TEMPS.                                                                   
THE CARWRF AND RUC CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE LATEST CONDITIONS QUITE               
WELL AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY. KEPT MORE                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY. MDL SOUNDINGS                  
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM 925-850MBS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.                
DECIDED ON GOINGS CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY                   
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS.                
A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS FCST TO                
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AIDING IN SOME                
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEPT 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH               
AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY                    
TEMPS/DWPTS USING THE RTMA AND GMOS BC. GMOS AND NAM12 TEMPS NOT                
CATCHING TO COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. TWEAKED MAX                 
TEMPS TODAY AS WELL KNOCKING THEM DOWN BY 3 DEGS WHICH PUTS LOW TO              
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR THE               
DOWNEAST AND COAST.                                                             
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE MDL SOUNDINGS                   
DRYING THROUGH 850 MBS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME CLEARING. THE                  
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE WESTERN AREAS AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS                  
COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. TIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN              
THE GRIDS USING THE BTV_SKY TOOL WHICH GAVE PARTLY SKIES.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGS COLDER THAN THEY WERE SOME               
24 HRS AGO AT THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND                   
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. ONE                
BUNDLE OF ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH THROUGH              
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY AS                
ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE                     
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL BE                
FORMING A LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY               
WHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH FORMS A LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS                
BRINGS A CHALLENGING FORECAST. THE INTERIOR LOW CARRIES LOTS OF                 
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED IF THE OUTER LOW                 
WELL TO THE EAST OBSTRUCTS SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF ATLANTIC                       
MOISTURE. THIS WOULD BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES                    
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN...ECMWF AND SREF CONSOLIDATE            
THE TWO LOWS INTO ONE OVER THE MARITIMES MORE RAPIDLY THAN EITHER               
THE NAM OR THE GFS. A QUICKER CONSOLIDATION WOULD ALLOW A MORE                  
ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW TO BACK IN FROM THE EAST BRINGING HEAVIER                
SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. FOR NOW VERY                     
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE SNOW SO WILL GO CAT POPS SUNDAY                             
AFTERNOON...WITH AMOUNTS STILL HAVING TO BE RESOLVED.                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT                
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL LIKELY                  
INTENSIFY AS IT CONSOLIDATES TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS                  
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY                 
NIGHT. A MOIST BUT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH                   
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH AND SNOW OR RAIN CENTRAL               
AND DOWNEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME COLD ARCTIC AIR MAY               
THEN APPROACH FOR MID WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES INTO EARLY                   
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH                    
TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB WILL STAY VFR.                                           
SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL LOWER TO IFR                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.               
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND                
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED                 
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND                      
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH LATE MORNING AS WINDS/SEAS              
STILL W/IN SCA RANGE ESP THE SEAS. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS                
FOR THE WINDS WHICH GIVES 15-20 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO              
25 KT WERE ADDED. THE SWANNAM WAVE HEIGHTS MATCHING VERY WELL THIS              
MORNING AND DECIDED TO USE IT TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS AND THEN                  
BLENDED THE WNAWAVE4 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOWS                
CONDITIONS GOING BELOW SCA AFT 18Z OR SO.                                       
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY REQUIRING A GALE ARE THEN LIKELY                  
BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES                
TO OUR NORTHEAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
         ANZ050>052.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
315 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN                  
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                   
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD                 
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION               
FRIDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE                  
WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE               
MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND QPF AMOUNTS.            
DECIDED ON USING THE CARWRF INTO THIS AFTERNOON W/THE RUC13 TO                  
START OUT THIS MORNING. THE SREF AND GFS40 WERE USED FOR THE GRIDS TONIGHT.     
LAST SATL IMAGERY SHOWED BATCH OF MID-LVL CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LARGE AREA OF               
CLEARING MOVING IN BEHIND THESE CLOUDS. LARGE BATCH OF SCU AND AC               
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN ASSOCN W/THE COLD FRONT.                    
CARWRF SHOWED THIS NICELY AND DECIDED TO BRING CLOUDS THICKENING                
BY LATE MORNING AND OVERSPREADING THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.                     
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AHEAD THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. 00Z              
UA ANAL SHOWED THIS WARMING MOVING INTO NYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENG.               
WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO SHOOT INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE                 
NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST THIS                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PRECIP SHIELD WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN                          
MIGRATE E ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. USING THE TEMPERATURE                  
PROFILES IN THE GRIDS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM                
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO START ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/SOME SNOW                  
MIXED IN TO START AND THEN THINGS GRADUALLY GO TO SNOW SHOWERS                  
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN.                   
DECIDED TO BACK DOWN ON COOLING THINGS OFF TOO QUICK AS INDICATED               
BY THE CARWRF TEMPS. RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND                 
DOWNEAST. SOME DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS THERE FROM                     
850-700 MBS SUPPORTED BY THE CARWRF AND THE GFS. A NARROW BAND OF               
PRECIP EXPECTED W/THIS SETUP. THEREFORE...CARRIED CATEGORICAL                   
POPS FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE                
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. CHC POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST AREAS W/LESS                    
FORCING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME SLEET                  
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ARRIVES W/THAT COLDER DESCENDING DOWN               
THROUGH THE COLUMN. ATTM...JUST HAVE SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE MORE                
OF A GRAUPEL PRECIP. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE AVERAGE OF .05-.10" AND                 
THIS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FAR NORTHERN AREAS                 
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY THE                 
EVENING. SNOW GRIDS ARE A REFLECTION OF THE CARWRF AND GFS MDL.                 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT THE COAST BY THE EVENING. MUCH                   
COLDER AIR SEEPING IN AS 850MB FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT              
CHC POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THIS FEATURE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS               
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. GMOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOKED DECENT AND WERE               
ACCEPTED. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DOWNWARD FOR THE LOW LYING                 
AREAS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
FRI AND SAT APPEAR TO BE MSLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WITH TYPICAL              
SC CLD CVR AND FLURRIES MSLY FOR NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
AFTWRDS...MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A STRONG DIGGING S/WV COMPLEX                 
ADVANCING SE FROM CNTRL CAN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND OH VLY.                
THE 00Z ECMWF CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS                          
SYSTEM...FORMING A SECONDARY SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID ATLC                 
COAST SAT NGT AND TRACKING IT NE TOWARD WRN NOVA SCOTIA ON SUN AND              
INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUN NGT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
CLDS TO INCREASE OVR THE FA SAT NGT AND ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO FORM               
AN ORGANIZE PRECIP SHIELD TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT                  
AMOUNTS OF SNFL DUE TO ATLC MOISTURE INFLOW...ESPECIALLY INLAND                 
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA. COASTAL AREAS                  
MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH LLVL WARMING FROM THE ATLC FOR SN TO MIX OR               
EVEN CHG OVR TO RN SUN AFT/ERLY EVE. IN ANY EVENT...THE TREND                   
ADVERTISED BY THE ECMW IS BACKED UP ENOUGH BY THE 00Z GFS AND GFS               
ENS MEMBERS TO INCREASE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SUN INTO SUN                
EVE FOR THE FA.                                                                 
SN SHOULD TAPER TO SN SHWRS ACROSS THE FA BY MON MORN...CONTG THRU              
THE AFT BEFORE ENDING MON NGT AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HI PRES APCHS                
AND CROSSES THE FA.                                                             
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INCREASE CLDS QUICKLY OVR THE FA ON TUE AS               
MID/UPPER WARM ADVCN BEGINS IN EARNEST. SNFL SHOULD AGAIN                       
OVERSPREAD THE AF BY TUE AFT AND CONT TUE NGT. THE 00Z GFS OPNL                 
MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT ENOUGH MID/LLVL WARM AIR SHOULD ARRIVE TO              
TRANSITION SNFL TO RN OR MIXED RN/SN OVR SPCLY ERN PTNS OF THE FA               
LATE TUE NGT INTO WED BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE FA                  
BEHIND A FIRST WV OF LOW PRES PROGGED TO DEPART THE FA BY WED NGT.              
THERE THE MODELS DVRG...WITH OPNL RUNS AND SOME OF THE GFS ENS                  
MEMBERS INDICATING A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SECONDARY TO IMPACT THE               
FA ON THU. FOR NOW GVN MODEL LOW PRES TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES            
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY               
FOR NOW WITH THIS EVENT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING DROPPING BACK TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON                
INTO THE EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. KBGR AND KBHB SHOULD               
SEE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                        
SHORT TERM: HI MVFR CLGS TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE              
FA FRI INTO SAT NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC OF MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF             
SITES. ALL SITES WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN CLGS AND SNFL SUN INTO               
SUN NGT. DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR ON MON WHILE NRN TAF              
SITES REMAIN MVFR IN OCNL SN SHWRS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS               
ON THE RISE ATTM. EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING THESE                
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. PREV WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT                 
GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE PER LATEST OBS. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS                    
NEEDED AND THIS WAS FOR THE GUSTS INTO THE EVENING.                             
SHORT TERM: STRONG SCA TO POSSIBLY GALES CAN BE XPCTD ON THE BACK               
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LATE WEEKEND LOW INTO MON ACROSS OUR WATERS.              
WE USED THE WNA WW3 DATA FO WV HTS AND A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND                 
GFS MOS FOR WINDS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...VJN                                                                
LONG TERM...VJN                                                                 
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN                                                             
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
357 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND                  
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER              
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ON                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NRN              
SHEN VALLEY AND NCNTRL MD. THESE SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK                
WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON RUC40 FCST             
SOUNDINGS.  THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING AS                   
LOW-LVL JET WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS WEST OF THE                   
APPALACHIANS WILL WORK GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A                
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FCST TO WEAKEN BELIEVE              
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CVRG TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS BUT AMTS WILL BE               
RATHER LIGHT IN THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS. PRECIP WILL TURN TO              
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST BUT ONLY LOOKING FOR                     
MINUSCULE AMTS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
PRECIP WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 03-04Z BEFORE THE DEEP               
COLD AIR ARRIVES. SO ALL LIQUID. /LFR                                           
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND                  
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFUSE A COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE            
AREA. SAVE FOR A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS                  
FRIDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL MEAN A PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE /VORT MAX/              
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO             
FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN. GRIDS REFLECT 40-60               
PCT SKY COVER. MAX T FRIDAY AND MIN T FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW                
NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES. UNDERCUT GFS MOS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT             
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD PROMOTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING               
CONDITIONS. /PELOQUIN                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING            
A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION WILL               
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MID WEST BY             
AFTERNOON. GFS INDICATES LIFT ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES MOST PRONOUNCED            
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS WHERE LOW             
POPS WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE                 
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL DENOTE AN                     
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                         
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY               
SUNDAY. LIFT SPREADS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE IS NOT               
ABUNDANT BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION                 
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY/ ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS             
WHERE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. WE MAY NEED              
TO CONSIDER INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY FURTHER EAST IF THE MODELS                
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES                 
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXCEPT               
PERHAPS RAIN INITIALLY ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. BEST CHANCE              
OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...WHERE WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE ACHIEVED. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR              
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO EXTEND FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST              
OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.                                   
PRECIPITATION EXITS EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES                    
EAST...EXCEPT FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE PARTS OF THE                  
HIGHLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND                      
SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS            
WILL MEAN AN END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND LESS CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.            
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MEDIUM RANGE                    
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA.                
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AS TO DETAILS /LIKE TIMING AND             
STRENGTH/ OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ONE THING WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY              
CONSISTENT IS THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.                   
HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN EARLY ENOUGH /TUESDAY                       
MORNING/...THEN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET.             
SPECIFICS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AND WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY MORNING. MIDLEVEL                         
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A CDFNT                  
APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DROP            
TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY DURING            
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT AT FAR S TERMINALS WHERE LIMITED LOW              
LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO STAY AT VFR LVLS. S FLOW OVERNIGHT            
WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BECOMING NW LATE THURSDAY AS THE                 
CDFNT PUSHES E OF THE REGION. CLRING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. /JRK                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES OFF              
THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT             
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER GUSTY                  
NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS                     
MONDAY. /PELOQUIN                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. /LFR          
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT                
ADVISORY WINDS IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY             
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. /PELOQUIN         
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN                                                             
NEAR TERM...LFR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LFR/PELOQUIN                                                       
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN                                                            
AVIATION...JRK/PELOQUIN                                                         
MARINE...LFR/PELOQUIN                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA                
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A PORTION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA            
THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA THIS             
MORNING APPROACHES THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE              
OF INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER                  
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO                  
BALDWIN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE MICHIGAN TO ENHANCE                  
SNOWFALL.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1015 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                      
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                  
I HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES             
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KENT...EASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEAST ALLEGAN             
COUNTIES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. ALSO...SINCE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS             
THE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND              
SHIFTS NORTH ONLY SLIGHTLY... I EXPECTED THE TIME OF THE HEADLINES              
UNTIL 5 PM FOR BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY COUNTIES.                          
OUR 88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHO INTENSITIES OVER 30 DBZ                    
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF OTTAWA AND                   
ALLEGAN COUNTIES THAT THEN MOVE INLAND. GIVEN THE RUC KEEPS THE LIFT            
AND CONVERGENCE GOING INTO MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HEADLINE COUNTIES             
I THROUGH IT BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINES GOING THROUGH 5 PM. I DO                
EXPECT THE SUNSHINE TO TURN THIS INTO A MORE CELLULAR EVENT BY LATE             
THIS MORNING. THAT WILL ONLY HELP BRING THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST             
ACROSS THE CWA. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER ONLY OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST AND             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACCUMULATION                
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING            
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN              
ALBERTA THIS MORNING...WILL RACE SE TO ERN WI BY 12Z SAT. MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP                
LAYER OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE              
AREA FROM THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL              
TRY TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR IN...HOWEVER H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED              
TO WARM ONLY TO AROUND -9 TO -10C.                                              
PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AND WILL COMBINE                    
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NW CORNER              
OF THE CWFA. PAST CASES OF A SW FLOW SUCH AS THIS AND A GOOD DEAL OF            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOTH SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A             
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO BALDWIN. MODELS SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3/2-4 INCH             
TYPE OF EVENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...                
MODERATE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY...AND THE BEST FORCING CLOSE TO THE              
DGZ...WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. WE                  
EXPECT THAT AN ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SURROUNDING THE               
WATCH AREA. THE WINDOW OF BEST SNOW OVER THE NW LOOKS TO BE AFTER               
06Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. AFTER 18Z SAT...THE FLOW                  
BECOMES NW BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE              
AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT. ENOUGH MOISTURE               
AND A FAVORABLE FLOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN            
THROUGH THE EVENING SAT EVENING.                                                
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW...THE SW COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE LAKE                 
EFFECT TAKE CHARGE. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO AROUND -17C OR            
SO BY 12Z SUN. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH              
10K FEET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SAT NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION WILL             
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                 
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO KALAMAZOO. WE CONTEMPLATED                  
ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL OF                    
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY SAT NIGHT...WE FELT IT              
WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON. LAKE                
EFFECT WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                
TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND SFC RIDGING MOVES IN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT WEEK...YIELDING A LESS                    
CONFIDENT FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE            
GOING FORECAST. MODELS WERE BRINGING A HEALTHY CLIPPER THROUGH THE              
REGION ON MONDAY...NOW IT IS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. IN                     
ADDITION...THE STRONG LOW THAT THE GFS WAS ROLLING UP INTO EASTERN              
CANADA MID WEEK (WHICH WAS TUGGING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH OUT OF CANADA            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES) IS NO LONGER THERE. TO ADD FURTHER                        
COMPLEXITY...ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS HAS A 1004MB LOW DROPPING            
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS A SPRAWLING HIGH              
BUILDING IN. SUFFICE IT TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                               
IT DOES STILL LOOK TO BE A COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD...WITH CHANCES             
AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOPING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSISTENCY            
OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                           
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE PERIOD FROM                  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN IN               
THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING AT THE OBSERVATION SITES AT BIG            
SABLE AND THE MUSKEGON GLERL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AHEAD             
OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS               
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A PORTION OF THE 40+ KNOT                  
SOUTHWEST WIND CORE AROUND 2K FEET BEGINNING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.            
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL WHERE WINDS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 25 KNOTS              
FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. HOWEVER                    
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO GALES ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES            
AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WATER TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM PER LOCAL            
STUDIES. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED MORE BY LATER SHIFTS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1247 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH               
TOWARD EVENING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW              
GROWTH REGION WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...IFR OR EVEN PATCHY LIFR WILL                  
PERSIST IN THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND 02Z.  ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE            
BACKING WINDS...FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.  THIS WILL               
HELP TAKE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FROM ALL THE TAF SITES                  
EXCEPT MKG BY SUNSET.                                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL FROM MID EVENING UNTIL THE               
WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER BY 08-10Z MORE SNOW WILL                
MOVE BACK IN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS            
WILL BRING A BURST OF SNOW TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY            
MORNING.  THE SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE                
LAKESHORE AS ANOTHER OF ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT IS GENERATED.                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.                  
LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. IT            
DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL BUILD A SNOWPACK WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST DAYS AND A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH 5 PM FOR KENT...OTTAWA AND                
ALLEGAN COUNTIES.                                                               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR BARRY...VAN BUREN AND                
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.                                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OTTAWA...MUSKEGON...OCEANA...MASON...                    
LAKE...AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES FROM 06Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN.                       
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                       
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   NJJ WDM                                                           
LONG TERM:    DUKE                                                              
MARINE:       NJJ                                                               
AVIATION:     JK                                                                
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1207 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF                 
CENTERED OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNWIND OF RDG ALG THE W COAST. CORE OF             
ARCTIC COLD UNDER THE TROF AT 00Z WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CWA...WITH              
00Z H85 TEMP -22C AT INL AND H7 TEMP -25C AT GRB/APX. AT YQD...THE              
00Z H8/H7 TEMPS WERE -16C/-19C. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE LARGE AIR/LK SUP             
WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIAL...QUITE A BIT OF LES HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE            
FVRD SN BELTS IN THE LLVL WNW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER THE CNTRL                  
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER NRN QUEBEC. MORE WSW LAND BREEZE WIND                   
COMPONENT WITHIN THE RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED ARCTIR AIRMASS OVER LAND             
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING THE LLVL CNVGC WITH THE MORE NW FLOW OVER            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUP AND INTENSIFIED THE SRN MOST BANDS                    
STREAMING INTO THE CWA NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALONG THE LK SUP             
SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS. PRESENCE OF SOME MID LVL MSTR NOTED BY MID             
CLD/H85-75 MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF             
SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE BANDS.             
ANOTHER SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG WITH QUITE A               
BIT OF MSTR SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS SPILLING INTO            
THE NRN PLAINS/MN.                                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE LES TRENDS/COVG/AMTS/GOING              
HEADLINES THRU TDAY. FOCUS FOR TNGT INTO THE WEEKEND CONCERNS                   
TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND ANOTHER DIGGING             
SEWD FM NRN CAN.                                                                
FOR TDAY...HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS WITH                   
WARMER AIR TO THE NW GRDLY INFILTRATING THE AREA. IN TANDEM WITH                
FALLING MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN                
RDG...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE SW. SO LES BANDS WL BEGIN              
TO DRIFT MORE TO THE N...EXITING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW BY THE AFTN.              
MAY BE ABLE TO CANX GOING WRNGS FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES EARLY IF THE            
BANDS SHIFT N INTO THE LK...WL CHECK RADAR TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.             
GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ALSO SUG FLOW WL BACK ENUF TO END                    
HEADLINES FOR THE KEWEENAW EARLY AS WELL. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR              
TO BACK ENUF TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT AN LES BAND OFF LK IMPACTING               
LUCE/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. OTRW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY COLD               
DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT HI CLDS NOW SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS/MN              
WL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE FRIGID HI TEMPS OBSVD IN THE             
NRN PLAINS YDAY AND THE LACK OF LK MODERATION WITH BACKING LLVL                 
FLOW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIANCE FOR HI TEMPS AS SUGD            
BY GFS FCST SDNGS.                                                              
TNGT...SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING WRN RDG AND DIGGING                  
SHARPLY SEWD TO IA BY 12Z SAT IS FCST TO DOMINATE. MEANWHILE...                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/ASSOCIATED SFC LO            
AND ARCTIC COLD FNT WL APRCH FM THE NW LATE. EXPECT SOME -SN                    
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275K-285K SFC (H8-65) TO                 
BREAK OUT NW-SE IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. WITH ABOUT 1.0-1.5                
G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE H7-75 LYR...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF               
-SN TO FALL ACRS THE FA THRU THE NGT. A LAKE ENHANCED SN BAND OFF LK            
MI IS LIKELY TO DVLP...BUT THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENUF OF A WLY               
COMPONENT TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER SN INTO MACKINAC COUNTY SE OF ERY.               
FAIRLY SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO ARRIVE AFT 06Z            
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY DVLP LATE OVER THE W               
TOWARD 12Z WITH ARRIVAL OF ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH               
THE TOTAL PCPN APPEARS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT...THE DEEP SATURATION               
SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS SUGS BUMPING UP POPS CLOSER TO THE HIER GFS             
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
SAT LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY DAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL FOR AT               
LEAST A TIME IN THE STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER            
LO/ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SUGS AN INTENSE SN BAND             
WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE                
THERE WL BE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE NNW                 
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS PROGGED TO PEAK AT 40 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE             
FNT. STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES THAT WL BECOME               
INCRSGLY POWDERY WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE              
RESULT WL BE A MORE EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY. SUSPECT A BLIZZARD             
WRNG MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR ALGER COUNTY...WHICH WL BE MOST EXPOSED             
TO FCST NNW FLOW FOR THE LONGEST PD OF TIME. OTRW...HOISTED WATCH               
FOR GOGEBIC AND MQT COUNTIES WHILE CONTINUING OTHER GOING WATCHES.              
ADVYS WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS WITH STRG            
NNW FLOW BLOWING THE LES WELL INLAND.EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SAT OVER               
THE W HALF IN THE MRNG...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.                 
SAT NGT WL FEATURE PURE LES WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. INTENSITY OF THE LES OVER THE               
FAR W SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG/FCST INVRN              
BASE PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO ARND H9 BY 12Z SUN AT IWD...BUT EXPECT HI            
SN/WATER RATIOS UNTIL THE END WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW            
MOIST LYR ARND -15C. GOING EXPIRATION OF WATCH FOR THE WRN ZNS SEEMS            
APPROPRIATE. MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH W TO E  WITH            
GRDL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT W TO E. BUT EXPECTED BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS OVER ALGER COUNTY SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVNG                
WITH H925 WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. LES WL                    
DIMINISH OVER THE E HALF ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. SUN WL             
BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS WITH H85 TEMPS IN              
THE -15C TO -18C RANGE. END OF WATCH LATE ON SUN APPEARS CONSISTENT             
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE. HI CLDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LO WL                
INVADE DURING THE DAY. ADDED LO CHC POPS ON SUN NGT TO REFLECT DVLPG            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MODEL QPF IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER. HIEST CHC POPS            
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WITH SOME MOISTENING/DESTABILATION PSBL OFF THE               
WATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...LK EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND CONDITIONS                  
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE               
UPPER LAKES REGION BRINGS MORE SNOW INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.            
UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST IFR VSBY WITH THE SNOW...THEN AS ARCTIC FRONT              
NEARS AND WINDS SHIFT TO NW...HEAVY LK EFFECT MAY RETURN YET AGAIN              
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TO VLIFR SAT MORNING               
WITH BLOWING SNOW/SNOW WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE              
ARCTIC FRONT AND WILL LOOK TO STAY DOWN ALL DAY.                                
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN. MVFR/IFR             
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS -SN SPREADS INTO THE AREA IN               
ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SNOW/WINDS DIMINISH               
ONLY VERY LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM MVFR LATE              
SAT MORNING TO VLIFR WITH BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE              
ARCTIC FRONT THAT COME THROUGH SAT MORNING AND WILL LOOK TO STAY LOW            
FOR A WHILE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS TODAY MAY REACH GALES BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW GUSTS. ON               
SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW             
LEADS TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF GALES. WENT AHEAD WITH GALE WARNINGS AS              
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALES. STRONG GALES TO 45              
KNOTS COULD OCCUR. IF TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE NEED FOR                
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY NOW LOOK TO STAY             
BLO GALES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ003.                                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     MIZ001.                                                                    
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                       
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-005-009.                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                  
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LMZ248-250.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY                      
     NIGHT FOR LMZ221.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND HEADLINE SECTION...                              
.SYNOPSIS...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA                
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A PORTION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA            
THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA THIS             
MORNING APPROACHES THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE              
OF INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER                  
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO                  
BALDWIN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE MICHIGAN TO ENHANCE                  
SNOWFALL.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1015 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                      
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                  
I HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES             
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KENT...EASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEAST ALLEGAN             
COUNTIES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. ALSO...SINCE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS             
THE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND              
SHIFTS NORTH ONLY SLIGHTLY... I EXPECTED THE TIME OF THE HEADLINES              
UNTIL 5 PM FOR BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY COUNTIES.                          
OUR 88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHO INTENSITIES OVER 30 DBZ                    
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF OTTAWA AND                   
ALLEGAN COUNTIES THAT THEN MOVE INLAND. GIVEN THE RUC KEEPS THE LIFT            
AND CONVERGENCE GOING INTO MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HEADLINE COUNTIES             
I THROUGH IT BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINES GOING THROUGH 5 PM. I DO                
EXPECT THE SUNSHINE TO TURN THIS INTO A MORE CELLULAR EVENT BY LATE             
THIS MORNING. THAT WILL ONLY HELP BRING THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST             
ACROSS THE CWA. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER ONLY OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST AND             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACCUMULATION                
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING            
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN              
ALBERTA THIS MORNING...WILL RACE SE TO ERN WI BY 12Z SAT. MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP                
LAYER OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE              
AREA FROM THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL              
TRY TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR IN...HOWEVER H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED              
TO WARM ONLY TO AROUND -9 TO -10C.                                              
PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AND WILL COMBINE                    
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NW CORNER              
OF THE CWFA. PAST CASES OF A SW FLOW SUCH AS THIS AND A GOOD DEAL OF            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOTH SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A             
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO BALDWIN. MODELS SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3/2-4 INCH             
TYPE OF EVENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...                
MODERATE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY...AND THE BEST FORCING CLOSE TO THE              
DGZ...WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. WE                  
EXPECT THAT AN ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SURROUNDING THE               
WATCH AREA. THE WINDOW OF BEST SNOW OVER THE NW LOOKS TO BE AFTER               
06Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. AFTER 18Z SAT...THE FLOW                  
BECOMES NW BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE              
AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT. ENOUGH MOISTURE               
AND A FAVORABLE FLOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN            
THROUGH THE EVENING SAT EVENING.                                                
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW...THE SW COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE LAKE                 
EFFECT TAKE CHARGE. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO AROUND -17C OR            
SO BY 12Z SUN. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH              
10K FEET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SAT NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION WILL             
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                 
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO KALAMAZOO. WE CONTEMPLATED                  
ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL OF                    
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY SAT NIGHT...WE FELT IT              
WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON. LAKE                
EFFECT WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                
TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND SFC RIDGING MOVES IN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT WEEK...YIELDING A LESS                    
CONFIDENT FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE            
GOING FORECAST. MODELS WERE BRINGING A HEALTHY CLIPPER THROUGH THE              
REGION ON MONDAY...NOW IT IS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. IN                     
ADDITION...THE STRONG LOW THAT THE GFS WAS ROLLING UP INTO EASTERN              
CANADA MID WEEK (WHICH WAS TUGGING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH OUT OF CANADA            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES) IS NO LONGER THERE. TO ADD FURTHER                        
COMPLEXITY...ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS HAS A 1004MB LOW DROPPING            
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS A SPRAWLING HIGH              
BUILDING IN. SUFFICE IT TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                               
IT DOES STILL LOOK TO BE A COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD...WITH CHANCES             
AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOPING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSISTENCY            
OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                           
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE PERIOD FROM                  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN IN               
THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING AT THE OBSERVATION SITES AT BIG            
SABLE AND THE MUSKEGON GLERL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AHEAD             
OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS               
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A PORTION OF THE 40+ KNOT                  
SOUTHWEST WIND CORE AROUND 2K FEET BEGINNING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.            
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL WHERE WINDS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 25 KNOTS              
FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. HOWEVER                    
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO GALES ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES            
AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WATER TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM PER LOCAL            
STUDIES. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED MORE BY LATER SHIFTS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(650 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS                
VARYING BETWEEN VFR (FLURRIES AND CEILINGS ABOVE 3000FT) AND MVFR               
(3-5SM -SHSN AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT). BRIEFLY IN THE              
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS VISIBILITIES WILL DIP BELOW 3SM. EXPECT A                  
GRADUAL DOWNTURN IN SNOW INTENSITY TODAY WITH TAFS SITES MAINLY                 
SEEING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LOSE              
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD THE GREAT             
LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED             
AT KMKG THOUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL DIP VISIBILITIES BELOW A               
MILE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL WITH VERY              
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.                  
LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. IT            
DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL BUILD A SNOWPACK WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST DAYS AND A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH 5 PM FOR KENT...OTTAWA AND                
ALLEGAN COUNTIES.                                                               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR BARRY...VAN BUREN AND                
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.                                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OTTAWA...MUSKEGON...OCEANA...MASON...                    
LAKE...AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES FROM 06Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN.                       
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                       
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   NJJ WDM                                                           
LONG TERM:    DUKE                                                              
MARINE:       NJJ                                                               
AVIATION:     DUKE                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
705 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF                 
CENTERED OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNWIND OF RDG ALG THE W COAST. CORE OF             
ARCTIC COLD UNDER THE TROF AT 00Z WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CWA...WITH              
00Z H85 TEMP -22C AT INL AND H7 TEMP -25C AT GRB/APX. AT YQD...THE              
00Z H8/H7 TEMPS WERE -16C/-19C. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE LARGE AIR/LK SUP             
WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIAL...QUITE A BIT OF LES HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE            
FVRD SN BELTS IN THE LLVL WNW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER THE CNTRL                  
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER NRN QUEBEC. MORE WSW LAND BREEZE WIND                   
COMPONENT WITHIN THE RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED ARCTIR AIRMASS OVER LAND             
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING THE LLVL CNVGC WITH THE MORE NW FLOW OVER            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUP AND INTENSIFIED THE SRN MOST BANDS                    
STREAMING INTO THE CWA NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALONG THE LK SUP             
SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS. PRESENCE OF SOME MID LVL MSTR NOTED BY MID             
CLD/H85-75 MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF             
SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE BANDS.             
ANOTHER SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG WITH QUITE A               
BIT OF MSTR SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS SPILLING INTO            
THE NRN PLAINS/MN.                                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE LES TRENDS/COVG/AMTS/GOING              
HEADLINES THRU TDAY. FOCUS FOR TNGT INTO THE WEEKEND CONCERNS                   
TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND ANOTHER DIGGING             
SEWD FM NRN CAN.                                                                
FOR TDAY...HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS WITH                   
WARMER AIR TO THE NW GRDLY INFILTRATING THE AREA. IN TANDEM WITH                
FALLING MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN                
RDG...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE SW. SO LES BANDS WL BEGIN              
TO DRIFT MORE TO THE N...EXITING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW BY THE AFTN.              
MAY BE ABLE TO CANX GOING WRNGS FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES EARLY IF THE            
BANDS SHIFT N INTO THE LK...WL CHECK RADAR TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.             
GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ALSO SUG FLOW WL BACK ENUF TO END                    
HEADLINES FOR THE KEWEENAW EARLY AS WELL. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR              
TO BACK ENUF TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT AN LES BAND OFF LK IMPACTING               
LUCE/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. OTRW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY COLD               
DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT HI CLDS NOW SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS/MN              
WL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE FRIGID HI TEMPS OBSVD IN THE             
NRN PLAINS YDAY AND THE LACK OF LK MODERATION WITH BACKING LLVL                 
FLOW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIANCE FOR HI TEMPS AS SUGD            
BY GFS FCST SDNGS.                                                              
TNGT...SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING WRN RDG AND DIGGING                  
SHARPLY SEWD TO IA BY 12Z SAT IS FCST TO DOMINATE. MEANWHILE...                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/ASSOCIATED SFC LO            
AND ARCTIC COLD FNT WL APRCH FM THE NW LATE. EXPECT SOME -SN                    
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275K-285K SFC (H8-65) TO                 
BREAK OUT NW-SE IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. WITH ABOUT 1.0-1.5                
G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE H7-75 LYR...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF               
-SN TO FALL ACRS THE FA THRU THE NGT. A LAKE ENHANCED SN BAND OFF LK            
MI IS LIKELY TO DVLP...BUT THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENUF OF A WLY               
COMPONENT TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER SN INTO MACKINAC COUNTY SE OF ERY.               
FAIRLY SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO ARRIVE AFT 06Z            
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY DVLP LATE OVER THE W               
TOWARD 12Z WITH ARRIVAL OF ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH               
THE TOTAL PCPN APPEARS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT...THE DEEP SATURATION               
SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS SUGS BUMPING UP POPS CLOSER TO THE HIER GFS             
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
SAT LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY DAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL FOR AT               
LEAST A TIME IN THE STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER            
LO/ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SUGS AN INTENSE SN BAND             
WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE                
THERE WL BE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE NNW                 
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS PROGGED TO PEAK AT 40 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE             
FNT. STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES THAT WL BECOME               
INCRSGLY POWDERY WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE              
RESULT WL BE A MORE EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY. SUSPECT A BLIZZARD             
WRNG MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR ALGER COUNTY...WHICH WL BE MOST EXPOSED             
TO FCST NNW FLOW FOR THE LONGEST PD OF TIME. OTRW...HOISTED WATCH               
FOR GOGEBIC AND MQT COUNTIES WHILE CONTINUING OTHER GOING WATCHES.              
ADVYS WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS WITH STRG            
NNW FLOW BLOWING THE LES WELL INLAND.EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SAT OVER               
THE W HALF IN THE MRNG...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.                 
SAT NGT WL FEATURE PURE LES WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. INTENSITY OF THE LES OVER THE               
FAR W SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG/FCST INVRN              
BASE PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO ARND H9 BY 12Z SUN AT IWD...BUT EXPECT HI            
SN/WATER RATIOS UNTIL THE END WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW            
MOIST LYR ARND -15C. GOING EXPIRATION OF WATCH FOR THE WRN ZNS SEEMS            
APPROPRIATE. MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH W TO E  WITH            
GRDL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT W TO E. BUT EXPECTED BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS OVER ALGER COUNTY SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVNG                
WITH H925 WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. LES WL                    
DIMINISH OVER THE E HALF ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. SUN WL             
BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS WITH H85 TEMPS IN              
THE -15C TO -18C RANGE. END OF WATCH LATE ON SUN APPEARS CONSISTENT             
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE. HI CLDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LO WL                
INVADE DURING THE DAY. ADDED LO CHC POPS ON SUN NGT TO REFLECT DVLPG            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MODEL QPF IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER. HIEST CHC POPS            
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WITH SOME MOISTENING/DESTABILATION PSBL OFF THE               
WATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...LK EFFECT -SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS              
BACKING SW ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH MID MORNING AND                
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FLUCTUATE BTWN LIFR AND VLIFR IN THE HEAVIER               
SHSN. BY AFTN...LK EFFECT LIFTS NORTH OF CMX AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE             
TO VFR FOR A TIME. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE UPPER                 
LAKES REGION BRINGS MORE SNOW INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.                  
UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST IFR VSBY WITH THE SNOW...THEN AS ARCTIC FRONT              
NEARS AND WINDS SHIFT TO NW...HEAVY LK EFFECT MAY RETURN YET AGAIN              
LATE TONIGHT.                                                                   
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN. WINDS                
WILL BEGIN TO GUST ABOVE 20 KT BY LATE AFTN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS                
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS -SN SPREADS INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SNOW/WINDS DIMINISH ONLY VERY LATE            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS TODAY MAY REACH GALES BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW GUSTS. ON               
SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW             
LEADS TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF GALES. WENT AHEAD WITH GALE WARNINGS AS              
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALES. STRONG GALES TO 45              
KNOTS COULD OCCUR. IF TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE NEED FOR                
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY NOW LOOK TO STAY             
BLO GALES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002.              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ003.                                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     MIZ001.                                                                    
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                       
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-005-009.                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                  
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LMZ248-250.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY                      
     NIGHT FOR LMZ221.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
455 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF                 
CENTERED OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNWIND OF RDG ALG THE W COAST. CORE OF             
ARCTIC COLD UNDER THE TROF AT 00Z WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CWA...WITH              
00Z H85 TEMP -22C AT INL AND H7 TEMP -25C AT GRB/APX. AT YQD...THE              
00Z H8/H7 TEMPS WERE -16C/-19C. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE LARGE AIR/LK SUP             
WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIAL...QUITE A BIT OF LES HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE            
FVRD SN BELTS IN THE LLVL WNW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER THE CNTRL                  
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER NRN QUEBEC. MORE WSW LAND BREEZE WIND                   
COMPONENT WITHIN THE RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED ARCTIR AIRMASS OVER LAND             
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING THE LLVL CNVGC WITH THE MORE NW FLOW OVER            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUP AND INTENSIFIED THE SRN MOST BANDS                    
STREAMING INTO THE CWA NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALONG THE LK SUP             
SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS. PRESENCE OF SOME MID LVL MSTR NOTED BY MID             
CLD/H85-75 MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF             
SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE BANDS.             
ANOTHER SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG WITH QUITE A               
BIT OF MSTR SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS SPILLING INTO            
THE NRN PLAINS/MN.                                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE LES TRENDS/COVG/AMTS/GOING              
HEADLINES THRU TDAY. FOCUS FOR TNGT INTO THE WEEKEND CONCERNS                   
TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND ANOTHER DIGGING             
SEWD FM NRN CAN.                                                                
FOR TDAY...HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS WITH                   
WARMER AIR TO THE NW GRDLY INFILTRATING THE AREA. IN TANDEM WITH                
FALLING MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN                
RDG...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE SW. SO LES BANDS WL BEGIN              
TO DRIFT MORE TO THE N...EXITING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW BY THE AFTN.              
MAY BE ABLE TO CANX GOING WRNGS FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES EARLY IF THE            
BANDS SHIFT N INTO THE LK...WL CHECK RADAR TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.             
GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ALSO SUG FLOW WL BACK ENUF TO END                    
HEADLINES FOR THE KEWEENAW EARLY AS WELL. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR              
TO BACK ENUF TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT AN LES BAND OFF LK IMPACTING               
LUCE/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. OTRW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY COLD               
DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT HI CLDS NOW SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS/MN              
WL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE FRIGID HI TEMPS OBSVD IN THE             
NRN PLAINS YDAY AND THE LACK OF LK MODERATION WITH BACKING LLVL                 
FLOW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIANCE FOR HI TEMPS AS SUGD            
BY GFS FCST SDNGS.                                                              
TNGT...SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING WRN RDG AND DIGGING                  
SHARPLY SEWD TO IA BY 12Z SAT IS FCST TO DOMINATE. MEANWHILE...                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/ASSOCIATED SFC LO            
AND ARCTIC COLD FNT WL APRCH FM THE NW LATE. EXPECT SOME -SN                    
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275K-285K SFC (H8-65) TO                 
BREAK OUT NW-SE IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. WITH ABOUT 1.0-1.5                
G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE H7-75 LYR...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF               
-SN TO FALL ACRS THE FA THRU THE NGT. A LAKE ENHANCED SN BAND OFF LK            
MI IS LIKELY TO DVLP...BUT THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENUF OF A WLY               
COMPONENT TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER SN INTO MACKINAC COUNTY SE OF ERY.               
FAIRLY SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO ARRIVE AFT 06Z            
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY DVLP LATE OVER THE W               
TOWARD 12Z WITH ARRIVAL OF ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH               
THE TOTAL PCPN APPEARS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT...THE DEEP SATURATION               
SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS SUGS BUMPING UP POPS CLOSER TO THE HIER GFS             
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
SAT LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY DAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL FOR AT               
LEAST A TIME IN THE STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER            
LO/ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SUGS AN INTENSE SN BAND             
WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE                
THERE WL BE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE NNW                 
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS PROGGED TO PEAK AT 40 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE             
FNT. STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES THAT WL BECOME               
INCRSGLY POWDERY WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE              
RESULT WL BE A MORE EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY. SUSPECT A BLIZZARD             
WRNG MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR ALGER COUNTY...WHICH WL BE MOST EXPOSED             
TO FCST NNW FLOW FOR THE LONGEST PD OF TIME. OTRW...HOISTED WATCH               
FOR GOGEBIC AND MQT COUNTIES WHILE CONTINUING OTHER GOING WATCHES.              
ADVYS WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS WITH STRG            
NNW FLOW BLOWING THE LES WELL INLAND.EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SAT OVER               
THE W HALF IN THE MRNG...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.                 
SAT NGT WL FEATURE PURE LES WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. INTENSITY OF THE LES OVER THE               
FAR W SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG/FCST INVRN              
BASE PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO ARND H9 BY 12Z SUN AT IWD...BUT EXPECT HI            
SN/WATER RATIOS UNTIL THE END WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW            
MOIST LYR ARND -15C. GOING EXPIRATION OF WATCH FOR THE WRN ZNS SEEMS            
APPROPRIATE. MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH W TO E  WITH            
GRDL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT W TO E. BUT EXPECTED BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS OVER ALGER COUNTY SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVNG                
WITH H925 WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. LES WL                    
DIMINISH OVER THE E HALF ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. SUN WL             
BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS WITH H85 TEMPS IN              
THE -15C TO -18C RANGE. END OF WATCH LATE ON SUN APPEARS CONSISTENT             
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE. HI CLDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LO WL                
INVADE DURING THE DAY. ADDED LO CHC POPS ON SUN NGT TO REFLECT DVLPG            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MODEL QPF IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER. HIEST CHC POPS            
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WITH SOME MOISTENING/DESTABILATION PSBL OFF THE               
WATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING AT KCMX...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO                
VARY BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF                
PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR...BUT THOSE PERIODS WILL BE VERY                
INFREQUENT. AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SW VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO            
THE MORNING...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT A PREVAILING             
PERIOD OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHSN. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO                
BACK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND TO VFR             
IN THE AFTN. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES                 
REGION WILL BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SN DURING THE               
EVENING.                                                                        
AT KSAW...WITH LOW-LEVEL W TO SW WINDS...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN WILL NOT             
BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THRU THE                
AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS -SN SPREADS              
INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS TODAY MAY REACH GALES BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW GUSTS. ON               
SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW             
LEADS TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF GALES. WENT AHEAD WITH GALE WARNINGS AS              
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALES. STRONG GALES TO 45              
KNOTS COULD OCCUR. IF TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE NEED FOR                
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY NOW LOOK TO STAY             
BLO GALES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002.              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ003.                                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     MIZ001.                                                                    
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                       
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-005-009.                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                  
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LMZ248-250.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY                      
     NIGHT FOR LMZ221.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1243 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(412 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                         
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DAY            
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE                   
EXPECTED RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT                
AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL               
SEE THE SNOWPACK GRADUALLY BUILD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
IN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON                    
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE                       
AREA...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING AMOUNTS A BIT ALONG MOST OF             
THE LAKESHORE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1040 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                      
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                
I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE AREA OF CONDITIONAL POP             
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. I ALSO INCREASED THE FORECAST SNOWFALL                  
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY  TO 1 TO 2 INCHES CENTERED ON US-131. THAT WAS                
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES CONFIRMING              
WHAT THE 12Z RUC SUGGESTS.... THAT IS CORE OF THE POLAR JET HAS                 
PASSED EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. WITH THE VAD WIND SUGGESTS               
THE INVERSION HEIGHT HAS INCREASED ABOUT 1000 FT FROM 5000 FT PRIOR             
TO 14Z TO ABOUT 6000 FT AT 15Z. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS  SHOWS SIMILAR                 
TRENDS.  850  MB TEMP CONTINUES TO FALL FROM AROUND -13C AT 12Z OVER            
LAKE MICHIGAN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z. SFC OBS SHOW 1TO MILE VIS AT GRR             
LAN AZO RQB AT 15Z. ALSO THE RUC SHOWS THE DGZ HAS BECOME SATURATED             
AND WILL REMAIN SO THE REST OF THE DAY. THE BEST LIFT IS BETWEEN NOW            
AND 20Z. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS 270 DEGREES AROUND 25                  
KNOTS. THUS I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SNOW ALL DAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA             
DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN ROUTE 10 AND I-94.  SOUTH OF I-94            
WINDS ARE NOT OVER THE LAKE LONG ENOUGH TO REALLY DO MUCH IN TERMS              
OF SNOWFALL.                                                                    
NEXT SPEED MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE               
DAKOTAS AND MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND THE POLAR JET                
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER                       
SYSTEMS....INVERSION HTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8-9K FT.            
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WNW THROUGH THE NIGHT.              
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE                     
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS             
ARE INDICATING THAT A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL                   
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE                
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO               
CHARLOTTE. THE LIMITED INVERSION HTS SHOULD KEEP THIS PICKUP IN LAKE            
EFFECT FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. WE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE              
ANY LOCATION WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMS...HOWEVER WE DO                   
BELIEVE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WE               
HAVE TRENDED AMOUNTS UP...AND ENOUGH TIME EXISTS THAT THE DAY SHIFT             
CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT POSSIBLE HEADLINES.                                    
INVERSION HTS WILL FALL A BIT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE             
AREA ON FRI MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE WNW TO                
MORE SW BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY ONE AREA              
FROM SEEING MUCH SNOW. THE FOCUS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMS WILL                     
TRANSITION FROM THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA TO THE NW CORNER.                     
THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL THEN DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA                
LATE FRI NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SAT. IT WILL BE THE SECOND                 
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW ACROSS THE NRN                
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE POTENT...AND WOULD              
BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY ITSELF. H850 TEMPS DO NOT WARM              
ALL THAT MUCH AHEAD OF IT...LEAVING DELTA T/S AT LEAST IN THE MID               
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SW FLOW COMBINED WITH ALMOST A                       
NON-EXISTENT INVERSION AND THE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL SET UP                
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT EVENT               
FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWFA. SOME DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED             
OUT...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS. THIS              
WILL BE LATE 4TH PERIOD/5TH PERIOD...SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY                 
WATCH FOR NOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(412 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                        
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                              
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE SNOW AND COLD. SURGES OF COLD               
AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING WEEKEND AND INTO             
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SURGE WILL RUSH IN SATURDAY NIGHT            
IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. 850MB TEMPS             
ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C BELOW ZERO. LAKE                 
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE RIDGING ENDS MUCH OF THE              
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY                  
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY                
MORNING. ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID                  
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING WELL INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO C.                
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS             
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT             
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                         
TRIED TO NUDGE DOWN TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN A               
PERSISTENT SIGNAL BY THE GFS TO FORECAST A COLD PERIOD. TEMPERATURES            
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY VERY WELL BE DEEP WINTER TYPE                   
NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS DIPPING TOWARD ZERO. DID               
NOT GO THAT COLD YET...BUT HAVE BEGUN THE TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1040 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                          
I EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL  00Z SATURDAY SINCE THE WINDS AND WAVES ARE            
MORE THAN STRONG AND OR LARGE ENOUGH. WE MAY END UP WITH A GALE                 
WARNING FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ON LATER FORECASTS DUE THE STRONG                 
SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY                
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AT THAT TIME WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1243 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURE             
INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT INCREASES AS AN                 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS.  IT              
APPEARS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET FAIRLY INTENSE BETWEEN 22Z AND               
06Z WITH LIFR LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.  BEYOND 06Z               
THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE THROUGH AND THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO               
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.  THERE COULD BE A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THIS                  
ACTIVITY ALSO WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE ON              
FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH              
THEN BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING.  WIND FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS WILL BE WNW WHICH WILL FAVOR AZO AND GRR GETTING MORE FREQUENT            
SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL ALSO SEE                    
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(412 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                        
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH               
THE NEXT WEEK...LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AREA                   
STREAMS AND RIVERS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL BUILD A SNOWPACK                
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST DAYS AND A FEW SYSTEMS              
MOVING THROUGH.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   NJJ / WDM                                                         
LONG TERM:    DUKE                                                              
MARINE:       NJJ / WDM                                                         
AVIATION:     JK                                                                
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1040 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND MARINE...                                        
.SYNOPSIS...(412 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                         
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DAY            
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE                   
EXPECTED RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT                
AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL               
SEE THE SNOWPACK GRADUALLY BUILD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
IN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON                    
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE                       
AREA...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING AMOUNTS A BIT ALONG MOST OF             
THE LAKESHORE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1040 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                      
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                
I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE AREA OF CONDITIONAL POP             
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. I ALSO INCREASED THE FORECAST SNOWFALL                  
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY  TO 1 TO 2 INCHES CENTERED ON US-131. THAT WAS                
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES CONFERMING              
WHAT THE 12Z RUC SUGGESTS.... THAT IS CORE OF THE POLAR JET HAS                 
PASSED EAST OF THE SOUTWEST MICHIGAN. WITH THE VAD WIND SUGGESTS THE            
INVERSION HEIGHT HAS INCREASED ABOUT 1000 FT FROM 5000 FT PRIOR TO              
14Z TO ABOUT 6000 FT AT 15Z. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS  SHOWS SIMILAR                    
TRENDS.  850  MB TEMP CONTINUES TO FALL FROM AROUND -13C AT 12Z OVER            
LAKE MICHIGAN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z. SFC OBS SHOW 1TO MILE VIS AT GRR             
LAN AZO RQB AT 15Z. ALSO THE RUC SHOWS THE DGZ HAS BECOME SATURATED             
AND WILL REMAIN SO THE REST OF THE DAY. THE BEST LIFT IS BETWEEN NOW            
AND 20Z. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS 270 DEGREES AROUND 25                  
KNOTS. THUS I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SNOW ALL DAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA             
DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN ROUTE 10 AND I-94.  SOUTH OF I-94            
WINDS ARE NOT OVER THE LAKE LONG ENOUGH TO REALLY DO MUCH IN TERMS              
OF SNOWFALL.                                                                    
NEXT SPEED MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE               
DAKOTAS AND MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND THE POLAR JET                
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER                       
SYSTEMS....INVERSION HTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8-9K FT.            
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WNW THROUGH THE NIGHT.              
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE                     
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS             
ARE INDICATING THAT A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL                   
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE                
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO               
CHARLOTTE. THE LIMITED INVERSION HTS SHOULD KEEP THIS PICKUP IN LAKE            
EFFECT FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. WE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE              
ANY LOCATION WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMS...HOWEVER WE DO                   
BELIEVE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WE               
HAVE TRENDED AMOUNTS UP...AND ENOUGH TIME EXISTS THAT THE DAY SHIFT             
CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT POSSIBLE HEADLINES.                                    
INVERSION HTS WILL FALL A BIT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE             
AREA ON FRI MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE WNW TO                
MORE SW BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY ONE AREA              
FROM SEEING MUCH SNOW. THE FOCUS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMS WILL                     
TRANSITION FROM THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA TO THE NW CORNER.                     
THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL THEN DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA                
LATE FRI NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SAT. IT WILL BE THE SECOND                 
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW ACROSS THE NRN                
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE POTENT...AND WOULD              
BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY ITSELF. H850 TEMPS DO NOT WARM              
ALL THAT MUCH AHEAD OF IT...LEAVING DELTA T/S AT LEAST IN THE MID               
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SW FLOW COMBINED WITH ALMOST A                       
NON-EXISTENT INVERSION AND THE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL SET UP                
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT EVENT               
FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWFA. SOME DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED             
OUT...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS. THIS              
WILL BE LATE 4TH PERIOD/5TH PERIOD...SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY                 
WATCH FOR NOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(412 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                        
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                              
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE SNOW AND COLD. SURGES OF COLD               
AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING WEEKEND AND INTO             
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SURGE WILL RUSH IN SATURDAY NIGHT            
IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. 850MB TEMPS             
ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C BELOW ZERO. LAKE                 
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE RIDGING ENDS MUCH OF THE              
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY                  
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY                
MORNING. ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID                  
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING WELL INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO C.                
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS             
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT             
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                         
TRIED TO NUDGE DOWN TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN A               
PERSISTENT SIGNAL BY THE GFS TO FORECAST A COLD PERIOD. TEMPERATURES            
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY VERY WELL BE DEEP WINTER TYPE                   
NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS DIPPING TOWARD ZERO. DID               
NOT GO THAT COLD YET...BUT HAVE BEGUN THE TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1040 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                          
I EXTENED THE SCA UNTIL  00Z SATURDAY SINCE THE WINDS AND WAVES ARE             
MORE THAN STRONG AND OR LARGE ENOUGH. WE MAY END UP WITH A GALE                 
WARNING FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ON LATER FORECASTS DUE THE STRONG                 
SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY                
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AT THAT TIME WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(655 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                         
MAIN BATCH OF SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IS                
SLIDING EAST/DECREASING IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS               
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ABOVE ALL THE TAF SITES HOWEVER. A                 
GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CEILING HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED...RISING FROM                
AROUND 2500FT THIS MORNING TO 3500FT THIS AFTERNOON.                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO SHOULD ALL              
SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE                   
THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS. INLAND...TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN...IT SHOULD              
MAINLY BE FLURRIES. CEILINGS AREA WIDE SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE MVFR            
CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(412 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008)                                        
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH               
THE NEXT WEEK...LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AREA                   
STREAMS AND RIVERS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL BUILD A SNOWPACK                
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST DAYS AND A FEW SYSTEMS              
MOVING THROUGH.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   NJJ / WDM                                                         
LONG TERM:    DUKE                                                              
MARINE:       NJJ / WDM                                                         
AVIATION:     DUKE                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1155 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 234 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AND              
GUSTY WINDS. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                        
SITUATION... WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A BIT QUICKER TIMING                
OF THINGS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST WITH A                
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS                
EVIDENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING              
24 HOURS... WORKING TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE                
GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS...                
BUT PREFERRED THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS... PARTICULARLY ITS                       
DEPICTION OF SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ESSENTIALLY                 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... THE NEXT                   
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON                      
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SURFACE                 
FEATURE... WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE                    
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE... WITH ONCE AGAIN JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SPEED              
THE TIMING OF THINGS.                                                           
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING... LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
TROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THESE LOW CLOUDS                
WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER... THEY WILL BE QUICKLY                
REPLACED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING                 
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE A QUICK HITTER... IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. DEEP LAYER SATURATION               
COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                     
AREA... SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS               
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE                 
BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OWING TO                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 925-500MB TROUGH                   
AXIS. USED THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS A PROXY FOR THE ARRIVAL               
OF PCPN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST PCPN. MIXING              
RATIOS ON THIS SURFACE NEAR 700MB LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2                
G/KG... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES FOR A 12-HOUR EVENT... BUT               
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 4 OR 5 HOURS                
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF A 1-2 INCH EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF                 
FROM THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...              
WHICH WOULD ALSO FALL INTO THAT BALLPARK. A LOOK AT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES... AS WELL AS EPV... DOES NOT SUGGEST A               
GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM STABILITY ARGUMENTS...                 
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED AOA 15K FEET... WHICH IS WELL               
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WHICH IS AROUND 10K FT. LAPSE                  
RATES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY POOR IN THAT LAYER... WHICH DOES RESULT               
IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER BUT ONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE                   
AUGMENTED UPWARD MOTION DUE TO INSTABILITY. SO... IN TERMS OF                   
SNOWFALL RATIOS... WOULD BE TOUGH TO STRAY TO FAR FROM A                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL OR EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE GIVEN AIRMASS... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 14 TO 1. SO... WILL GENERALLY PAINT 1 TO 2                   
INCHES OF SNOWFALL... WITH SOME MAXES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OVER THE                  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE WINDOW OF                        
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LONGER GIVEN A BETTER PERIOD OF DEEP               
LAYER SATURATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY                 
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS... ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS               
WILL BE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND                  
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH                     
WORKING TO BLOW AROUND THE NEW FALLEN SNOW. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS AND EXPECTED WINDS DURING THE TIME OF FALLING SNOW LOOK                  
LIKE THEY WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL                
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.                                           
RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOK TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST SOME MORNING FLURRIES OVER THE                  
EAST AND OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...                
IT WON/T TAKE LONG FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP... WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION WORKING BACK IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING                    
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THINGS SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL               
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. LATER FORECASTS               
WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BUMP THE POPS UP FURTHER ONCE THE TIMING               
IS NAILED DOWN A BIT BETTER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON               
MONDAY... DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING... WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING                    
ANTICYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PCPN                  
MONDAY NIGHT. MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS                   
AFTERNOON...SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF MN FA BY 00Z SAT. CIGS ALREADY                
BEGINNING TO LOWER WESTERN AREAS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR                
TIMING...COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON KAXN-KRWF-KSTC AREAS AND MAINLY               
AFTER 00Z TO THE EAST.  WILL SEE 1-3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA                  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...WITH OCNL LIFR DURING THE                 
HEAVIER SNOW PERIODS OVER EASTERN AREAS. WIND TO INCREASE WITH                  
FROPA FIRST AT KAXN...LAST AT KEAU.  SOME GUSTS TO 28-30KT PSBL WITH            
FROPA KAXN-KRWF AND WITH FRESH SNOW BLSN COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.                
SNOW SHOULD END IN THOSE AREAS WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL FOR A TIME.            
LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY                   
BREAKING OUT OVER THE WEST INTO CENTRAL FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SAT.            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/TRH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
602 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 234 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AND              
GUSTY WINDS. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                        
SITUATION... WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A BIT QUICKER TIMING                
OF THINGS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST WITH A                
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS                
EVIDENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING              
24 HOURS... WORKING TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE                
GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS...                
BUT PREFERRED THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS... PARTICULARLY ITS                       
DEPICTION OF SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ESSENTIALLY                 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... THE NEXT                   
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON                      
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SURFACE                 
FEATURE... WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE                    
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE... WITH ONCE AGAIN JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SPEED              
THE TIMING OF THINGS.                                                           
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING... LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
TROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THESE LOW CLOUDS                
WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER... THEY WILL BE QUICKLY                
REPLACED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING                 
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE A QUICK HITTER... IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. DEEP LAYER SATURATION               
COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                     
AREA... SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS               
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE                 
BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OWING TO                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 925-500MB TROUGH                   
AXIS. USED THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS A PROXY FOR THE ARRIVAL               
OF PCPN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST PCPN. MIXING              
RATIOS ON THIS SURFACE NEAR 700MB LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2                
G/KG... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES FOR A 12-HOUR EVENT... BUT               
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 4 OR 5 HOURS                
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF A 1-2 INCH EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF                 
FROM THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...              
WHICH WOULD ALSO FALL INTO THAT BALLPARK. A LOOK AT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES... AS WELL AS EPV... DOES NOT SUGGEST A               
GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM STABILITY ARGUMENTS...                 
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED AOA 15K FEET... WHICH IS WELL               
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WHICH IS AROUND 10K FT. LAPSE                  
RATES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY POOR IN THAT LAYER... WHICH DOES RESULT               
IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER BUT ONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE                   
AUGMENTED UPWARD MOTION DUE TO INSTABILITY. SO... IN TERMS OF                   
SNOWFALL RATIOS... WOULD BE TOUGH TO STRAY TO FAR FROM A                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL OR EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE GIVEN AIRMASS... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 14 TO 1. SO... WILL GENERALLY PAINT 1 TO 2                   
INCHES OF SNOWFALL... WITH SOME MAXES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OVER THE                  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE WINDOW OF                        
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LONGER GIVEN A BETTER PERIOD OF DEEP               
LAYER SATURATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY                 
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS... ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS               
WILL BE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND                  
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH                     
WORKING TO BLOW AROUND THE NEW FALLEN SNOW. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS AND EXPECTED WINDS DURING THE TIME OF FALLING SNOW LOOK                  
LIKE THEY WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL                
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.                                           
RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOK TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST SOME MORNING FLURRIES OVER THE                  
EAST AND OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...                
IT WON/T TAKE LONG FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP... WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION WORKING BACK IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING                    
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THINGS SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL               
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. LATER FORECASTS               
WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BUMP THE POPS UP FURTHER ONCE THE TIMING               
IS NAILED DOWN A BIT BETTER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON               
MONDAY... DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING... WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING                    
ANTICYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PCPN                  
MONDAY NIGHT. MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LOW-END VFR CIGS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS                          
MORNING...BUT BE REPLACED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHORTLY AFTERWARD...AS             
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF                 
THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL                
TRENDS. EXPECT SNOW TO REACH KAXN/KSTC AROUND 20Z...KRWF/KSMP                   
AROUND 22Z...AND KRNH/KEAU BY 00Z. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE                    
SNOWFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS TO THE LIFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING.              
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH THE SNOWFALL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS                
BEHIND THE FROPA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT                
AS WELL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/TRH                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
234 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AND              
GUSTY WINDS. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                        
SITUATION... WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A BIT QUICKER TIMING                
OF THINGS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST WITH A                
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS                
EVIDENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING              
24 HOURS... WORKING TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE                
GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS...                
BUT PREFERRED THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS... PARTICULARLY ITS                       
DEPICTION OF SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ESSENTIALLY                 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... THE NEXT                   
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON                      
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SURFACE                 
FEATURE... WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE                    
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE... WITH ONCE AGAIN JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SPEED              
THE TIMING OF THINGS.                                                           
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING... LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
TROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THESE LOW CLOUDS                
WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER... THEY WILL BE QUICKLY                
REPLACED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING                 
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE A QUICK HITTER... IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. DEEP LAYER SATURATION               
COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                     
AREA... SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS               
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE                 
BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OWING TO                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 925-500MB TROUGH                   
AXIS. USED THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS A PROXY FOR THE ARRIVAL               
OF PCPN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST PCPN. MIXING              
RATIOS ON THIS SURFACE NEAR 700MB LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2                
G/KG... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES FOR A 12-HOUR EVENT... BUT               
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 4 OR 5 HOURS                
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF A 1-2 INCH EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF                 
FROM THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...              
WHICH WOULD ALSO FALL INTO THAT BALLPARK. A LOOK AT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES... AS WELL AS EPV... DOES NOT SUGGEST A               
GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM STABILITY ARGUMENTS...                 
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED AOA 15K FEET... WHICH IS WELL               
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WHICH IS AROUND 10K FT. LAPSE                  
RATES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY POOR IN THAT LAYER... WHICH DOES RESULT               
IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER BUT ONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE                   
AUGMENTED UPWARD MOTION DUE TO INSTABILITY. SO... IN TERMS OF                   
SNOWFALL RATIOS... WOULD BE TOUGH TO STRAY TO FAR FROM A                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL OR EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE GIVEN AIRMASS... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 14 TO 1. SO... WILL GENERALLY PAINT 1 TO 2                   
INCHES OF SNOWFALL... WITH SOME MAXES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OVER THE                  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE WINDOW OF                        
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LONGER GIVEN A BETTER PERIOD OF DEEP               
LAYER SATURATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY                 
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS... ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS               
WILL BE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND                  
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH                     
WORKING TO BLOW AROUND THE NEW FALLEN SNOW. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS AND EXPECTED WINDS DURING THE TIME OF FALLING SNOW LOOK                  
LIKE THEY WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL                
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.                                           
RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOK TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST SOME MORNING FLURRIES OVER THE                  
EAST AND OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...                
IT WON/T TAKE LONG FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP... WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION WORKING BACK IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING                    
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THINGS SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL               
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. LATER FORECASTS               
WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BUMP THE POPS UP FURTHER ONCE THE TIMING               
IS NAILED DOWN A BIT BETTER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON               
MONDAY... DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING... WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING                    
ANTICYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PCPN                  
MONDAY NIGHT. MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
...ACCUMULATING SNOW/IFR CONDS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING            
FRIDAY...                                                                       
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING               
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. 2500 TO 4000FT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO               
FILL THE SKIES TONIGHT. LARGE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS NOW PASSING OVER              
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE 3000 TO              
4000 FT CLOUDS UPSTREAM HEADED THIS WAY. OPTED FOR MOSTLY BROKEN                
SKIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME                  
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN                  
ADVANCING ALBERTA CLIPPER. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BOUTS OF 2500 TO 3000 FT            
CIGS TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY/MID                     
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.                                                         
MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM MORNING ONWARD AHEAD OF THE               
CLIPPER. THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED/STRONGER THAN                
RECENT SYSTEMS THUS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL LOOKS MORE LIKELY. EXPECT A             
3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF LOW CONDITIONS UNDER INTENSE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY        
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY                 
EVENING...WITH LARGER WINDOW OF MVFR CONDS WITH LIGHTER SNOW. CEILINGS          
WILL QUICKLY FALL AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SNOW STARTING SOON              
AFTER. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AT KAXN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE                     
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST STARTING AT KSTC AND KRWF AFTER 23Z OR SO. KMSP               
AND KRNH WILL QUICKLY SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AROUND/JUST                  
AFTER 00-01Z WITH KEAU STARTING AROUND 02-03Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH               
THIS TIMING AS IT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AN HOUR OR SO IN EITHER               
DIRECTION. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE QUICKLY WITH AN INCH OR 2 AT                  
KAXN AND KRWF WITH 2 TO 3 AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU. VISIBILITY IS                      
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 1 TO 2 SM AT KAXN/KSTC/KRWF AND TO LESS THAN 1              
SM AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. CIGS OF 500 TO 800 FEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT              
THESE THREE SITES UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH CIGS                         
PREDOMINATELY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST                  
SNOW. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE                  
SNOW WINDS DOWN AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE WEST CREATING SOME BLOWING              
SNOW CONCERNS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR VIS IN THE BLSN AT                           
KAXN/KRWF/KSTC BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THREAT.                  
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
318 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ENDING LES EVENT AND                 
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS               
DEEP COLD CORE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER               
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED                          
WESTERLY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER                 
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS                    
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...OUT OF THE FA...DESPITE                   
CONTINUED COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /H85                 
TEMPS AROUND -20C ATTM/. LET WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED                        
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD STREETS ALONG WITH SCT                
FLURRIES/SHSN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SETTING                
UP A COLD NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ALONG WITH              
SFC LOWS REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WILL                   
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE FOR LATE                 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD RECOVERY OF                
TEMPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.                  
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING                   
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DLH FA.               
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE                       
NORTHLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE             
STRONGEST 2-D FGEN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER NAM. GUSTY WINDS                
ALONG WITH THIS EVENT BEING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW              
WILL MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A LES                 
EVENT LOOKS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SOUTH SHORE WITH A GUSTY                  
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C SATURDAY                  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                         
.EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH BRIEF RIDGING ON SUNDAY...WITH LAKE             
EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING OVER NW WISCONSIN...AND DRY WEATHER                    
ELSEWHERE. WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND             
SNOW CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO               
EAST. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL THEN RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME               
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM             
WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON                       
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE                     
SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF                  
DISAGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS AND GFS                             
ENSEMBLES...WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PHASING OF THE NORTHERN            
AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD                    
EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE LOW WEAKER AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH.                        
OTHERWISE...COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH             
THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROUGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE                  
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH H85              
TEMPS OF -20C TO -24C. HOWEVER....THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL            
BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY BY LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND AS THE THE TROUGH            
SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WE BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A               
BIT FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...AND               
ONLY WARMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z                  
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z THIS               
EVENING...AND MAY ALSO BRING VSBYS AS LOW AS 2SM. THE RUC13 AND                 
NAM12 SUGGEST A TEMPORARY RISE IN CEILING HEIGHTS AND MAINLY                    
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING KBRD DURING THE                   
EVENING HOURS...FROM 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE MVFR AGAIN BECOMES MORE                
PREVALENT AFTER 06Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS            
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING                     
SHORTWAVE...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LOW VFR THROUGH                     
18Z...BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN               
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH   0  18  11  16 /  20  20  80  30                                           
INL  -4  15   1   8 /  20  40  80  20                                           
BRD   0  21  14  17 /  10  20  80  20                                           
HYR  -2  19  13  20 /  20  10  80  40                                           
ASX   5  18  11  19 /  50  20  80  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-              
     LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                             
$$                                                                              
LILES/BETTWY                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
508 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008                                                       
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCH OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE               
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME... IN ASSOCIATION               
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS                     
FEATURE WILL SWING EAST THIS MORNING... AND THE WATER VAPOR                     
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW SOME DECENT SHORTWAVE                   
RIDGING MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WHICH WILL               
WORK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER               
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOMOGENEOUS...                 
WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED                     
FEATURES AND PCPN. IN THEIR WAKE... AREAS OF BKN MAINLY VFR AND                 
MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE FOUND. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...               
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM... GFS... AND RUC... ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME                
STRATOCU THROUGH THE DAY... BUT CYCLONIC FLOW IS MINIMAL LIKELY                 
KEEPING THINGS IN CHECK. HOWEVER... WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE              
VICINITY TODAY AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC                    
FLOW... WE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU THAN                          
YESTERDAY... BUT FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST IT SHOULD GENERALLY                  
STAY AOA 3K FT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS IN SOME OF THE SCATTERED SNOW                 
SHOWERS WHICH COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT... THE GENERAL TREND                 
SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WINDS BACK AND WARM                  
ADVECTION STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE MID LEVELS AND                   
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE. HOWEVER... THERE COULD BE SOME                   
LOWERING IN CEILINGS AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BEFORE THE              
CLOUDS ARE SCOURED OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME HINT OF THIS TREND...                 
BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A SCATTERING OUT OF ANY BKN LOWER CLOUDS               
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 426 AM CST THU DEC 4 2008/                                              
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRAIPSE ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...INDUCED BY FAINT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE              
BASE OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ASSOCIATED AREA                
OF 850-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA THIS                   
MORNING...WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO END AROUND                       
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION      
OF THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. COLD              
AIR ADVECTION AND AN 850MB TEMPERATURE DECLINE TO AROUND -20C WILL              
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW                           
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AS READINGS TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER                   
TEENS AND LOW 20S.                                                              
AFTER TODAY...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIP               
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY. THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT              
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF IN BRINGING                        
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES APPEAR                              
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST                       
CENTRAL WI...WHERE SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BE DECENT PER PROGS OF 4-5                
-UBAR/S OF OMEGA AT THE -15C TEMPERATURE LEVEL.                                 
CHILLY TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A LOW LEVEL                 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE                
PARADE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH                   
THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH                  
RESPECT TO TIMING/PLACEMENT ASPECTS OF THIS FEATURE...AGREEMENT IS              
DECENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND                
00Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A FLEETING APPEARANCE LATE                 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM EXPECTED BY                  
MIDWEEK.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1019 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUD COVER AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP              
TONIGHT. VORT MAX HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL FORCING AND                  
MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING. HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION FOR                
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MID LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE THROUGH NCNTL NEB THIS EVENING                  
ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN                
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. THIS FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF              
THE FCST AREA SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS              
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN OPERATING               
SATURDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING           
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A TIME. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.               
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM AIR WINS OUT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST.               
ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT PERSISTENT MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE             
WARM AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S             
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH 30S IN THE FAR ERN PTN OF THE FCST                 
AREA.                                                                           
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF IS             
VERY ACTIVE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN-SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND           
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...NAM12...NOGAPS AND GEM INDICATE THE BEST                
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN COLO. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN              
FULLY DISCOUNTED SO 20 TO 30 POPS BLANKET THE FCST AREA MONDAY AND              
MONDAY NIGHT. LATER FCSTS CAN RAISE OF LOWER THE POP AS THE MODELS              
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE PROBLEM IS SOME FISHY UPPER LEVEL               
ENERGY ACROSS THE ERN PAC WHICH SOME MODELS PHASE FARTHER SOUTH VS              
THE ECMWF WHICH OPERATES FARTHER NORTH. IF THE ECMWF IS WRONG THEN              
ONLY SWRN NEB WILL GET PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM.                                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS           
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEB. THE FCST IS DRY               
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WOBBLES THROUGH THE FCST                
AREA...PRESUMABLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OUR BEST                  
GUESS IS 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH FOR HIGHS BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COLD.            
HPC SET TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN               
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY. THESE GRIDS WERE DISCARDED FOR                     
SOMETHING CLOSER TO CLIMO...ATLEAST ON THURSDAY WHEN IT WAS OBVIOUS             
A COLD FRONT WOULD DROP THROUGH. CLEARLY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE                  
WOBBLING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS            
THE COOLER ECMWF.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
MID CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS ESPECIALLY IN THE KVTN                 
VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING WITH TIME.                 
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BELOW 6K FT OR SO            
THAT WILL NEED TO COOL/MOISTEN BEFORE PRECIP WILL BE REALIZED AT THE            
SFC. WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY SN WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST AT                     
KVTN...THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS              
DUE TO CEILINGS. WITH BETTER FORCING INDICATED AT KVTN THAN                     
KLBF...WET BULB EFFECT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOW CLOUD FORMATION BY                
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT RH TIME HEIGHTS               
AND SOUNDING PROFILES FROM RUC/NAM/LOCAL WRF ARW SHOULD THE LOWEST              
LAYER CONTINUING TO BE SATURATED THRU 18Z FOR KVTN. NO PRECIP                   
MENTIONED FOR KVTN SINCE ANY SN WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BETTER CHANCES            
FOR MORE FLURRIES FURTHER E. AS FOR KLBF...THOUGH CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL            
BE LOWERING...MOST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS REMAINING ABOVE                
MVFR SO HAVE TRENDED TWD LOWER RANGE OF IFR FOR NOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
POWER                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
256 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MID LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE THROUGH NCNTL NEB THIS EVENING                  
ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN                
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. THIS FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF              
THE FCST AREA SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS              
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN OPERATING               
SATURDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING           
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A TIME. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.               
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM AIR WINS OUT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST.               
ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT PERSISTENT MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE             
WARM AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S             
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH 30S IN THE FAR ERN PTN OF THE FCST                 
AREA.                                                                           
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF IS             
VERY ACTIVE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN-SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND           
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...NAM12...NOGAPS AND GEM INDICATE THE BEST                
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN COLO. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN              
FULLY DISCOUNTED SO 20 TO 30 POPS BLANKET THE FCST AREA MONDAY AND              
MONDAY NIGHT. LATER FCSTS CAN RAISE OF LOWER THE POP AS THE MODELS              
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE PROBLEM IS SOME FISHY UPPER LEVEL               
ENERGY ACROSS THE ERN PAC WHICH SOME MODELS PHASE FARTHER SOUTH VS              
THE ECMWF WHICH OPERATES FARTHER NORTH. IF THE ECMWF IS WRONG THEN              
ONLY SWRN NEB WILL GET PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM.                                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS           
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEB. THE FCST IS DRY               
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WOBBLES THROUGH THE FCST                
AREA...PRESUMABLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OUR BEST                  
GUESS IS 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH FOR HIGHS BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COLD.            
HPC SET TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN               
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY. THESE GRIDS WERE DISCARDED FOR                     
SOMETHING CLOSER TO CLIMO...ATLEAST ON THURSDAY WHEN IT WAS OBVIOUS             
A COLD FRONT WOULD DROP THROUGH. CLEARLY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE                  
WOBBLING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS            
THE COOLER ECMWF.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS ESPECIALLY IN THE KVTN                 
VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING WITH TIME.                 
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BELOW 6K FT OR SO            
THAT WILL NEED TO COOL/MOISTEN BEFORE PRECIP WILL BE REALIZED AT THE            
SFC. WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY SN WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST AT                     
KVTN...THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS              
DUE TO CEILINGS. WITH BETTER FORCING INDICATED AT KVTN THAN                     
KLBF...WET BULB EFFECT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOW CLOUD FORMATION BY                
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT RH TIME HEIGHTS               
AND SOUNDING PROFILES FROM RUC/NAM/LOCAL WRF ARW SHOULD THE LOWEST              
LAYER CONTINUING TO BE SATURATED THRU 18Z FOR KVTN. NO PRECIP                   
MENTIONED FOR KVTN SINCE ANY SN WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BETTER CHANCES            
FOR MORE FLURRIES FURTHER E. AS FOR KLBF...THOUGH CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL            
BE LOWERING...MOST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS REMAINING ABOVE                
MVFR SO HAVE TRENDED TWD LOWER RANGE OF IFR FOR NOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC/JWS                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1253 AM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.             
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM WITH MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ALONG               
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND AS THE                  
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT YET PRIMED WITH CLOUD BASES STILL ABOVE 6000FT.               
WILL EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE TO INCREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT                    
ACROSS THE WEST AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES CLOSER.                       
EXAMINED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE                  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT SOUNDINGS STILL DO NOT INDICATE A WARM                  
LAYER ALOFT AS THE FORCING ARRIVES...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT               
THE SURFACE FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME ARE IFFY RIGHT NOW.                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AHEAD                 
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THE RUC13 DOING A GOOD JOB OF                
PICKING UP ON THE CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE                 
HOLDING CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH THE CLOUDS COMING IN                 
WELL AHEAD THE TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN RATHER THEN SNOW. THOUGHT ABOUT               
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN              
MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING BUT KEPT THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE                     
FREEZING WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS COMING IN.                
AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH RAIN                      
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. BACK END OF PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF              
FAST AS MOISTURE IS RIGHT WITH THE FRONT SO THE ONLY PLACE                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCH OR               
TWO COULD RESULT THURSDAY.                                                      
TEMPERATURE TRACE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE NONE DIURNAL AS COLD AIR                 
COMES IN DURING THE DAY.  LOOKING FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 13 TO 15Z            
OHIO RIVER AND AROUND 18Z CRW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
POPS SHOULD BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO              
SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.            
WITH 850 THERMAL TROF AROUND MINUS 10C ON FRIDAY AND UPPER AIR                  
DISTURBANCES PASSING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THINKING                
THEIR COULD BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT             
PRECIPITATION.  COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW                  
SHOWERS. SOME 20 POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FOR NOW...BUT               
EVEN THOSE MINIMUM POPS DROP EVEN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
NO BIG CHANGES ON THE TIMING ON THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONSOLIDATING             
AND DEEPENING QUICKLY OFF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. WENT LIKELY POP AFTER             
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY                  
EVENING.  OF COURSE...DURATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHORTER ACROSS             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  EVENT TRANSITIONS INTO WIND BLOWN SNOW SHOWERS              
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT RAIN OR               
SNOW SHOWERS IF PCPN REACHES THE GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS                
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SNOW.  HAVE THIS EVENT...LATE               
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY....IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING HIGH                   
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KEKN               
INDICATES SOMEWHAT IDEA CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE FLOW AS AIRMASS WILL             
PLENTY COLD...-12 TO-20 DEGC...AND WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY.                 
ONLY NEGATIVE THING IS IT APPEARS MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE DRYING OUT            
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STILL FEEL LIKELY POPS               
WILL BE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE                 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HAVE 50 POPS                
WITH LESSOR VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                            
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHUT-OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN.  MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS                
BEFORE IT ENDS.  BUT WILL NOT ADD THIS DETAIL AT THIS TIME.                     
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY                   
WEATHER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.  HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                                            
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO             
THE REGION.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL              
PUSH IN MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
HAVE FOLLOWED HPC THOUGHTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THEY                    
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY IN OUR VICINITY.  AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE              
SECOND LOW WILL PULL EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                   
HAVE TWEAKED MAXT/MINT GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING WITH HPC AND            
12 UTC MEX NUMBERS.  HAVE ALSO USED MEX COOP MOS TO TWEAK TEMPS AT              
SNOWSHOE DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...                                                 
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS                   
MORNING. FRONT REACHES OHIO RIVER AROUND 13Z...CKB-CRW LINE AROUND              
15Z...AND EKN-BKW LINE AROUND 17Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VFR CEILINGS            
BECOMING MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR 3-4 HOURS...MVFR            
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW SHOWERS LOWLANDS...AND CHANGING            
TO SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAINS. BY 00Z VFR LOWLANDS...CONTINUED MVFR WITH            
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOUNTAINS.                                      
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE             
IFR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
HARDWARE / PART/ FAILURE AT CKB ASOS. CKB WILL HAVE INCOMPLETE OR               
MISSING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/AAR                                                          
NEAR TERM...26/AAR                                                              
SHORT TERM...KTB                                                                
LONG TERM...JSH                                                                 
AVIATION...JMV                                                                  
EQUIPMENT...KTB                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1254 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE              
WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY                
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN           
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE            
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
IN SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP TO            
THE NC BORDER...NEITHER THE LATEST NAM OR RUC ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF            
BRINGING MUCH RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT COULD BE THAT BOTH              
CANNOT SPIN UP PRECIP FAST ENOUGH AS THE UPPER FORCING MOVES ACROSS             
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS                  
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS FEATURE             
SHOULD WEAKEN THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO              
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SOME TWEAKING HAS BEEN            
DONE TO THE POP INITIALLY...WILL NOT BE TEMPTED TO LOWER IT BASED ON            
THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WILL HOLD OUT HOPE FOR THIS WAVE TO BRING THE              
SHOWERS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PUT A LID ON            
THE WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPS WERE                  
KNOCKED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBS TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE.                
BEST UPPER FORCING MOVES E WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE AFTER 00Z BUT BROAD              
UPPER TROF STILL LIES OVER AREA WITH TROF AXIS TO THE W. A WEAK WAVE            
DEVELOPS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY WHICH KEEPS MOISTURE OVER AREA SO CHANCE            
POPS LINGER AFTER SUNSET...TAPERING OFF TO FAR SE CWA BY DAYBREAK.              
IN ANY CASE THIS IS NOT A VERY WET SYSTEM. USED HPC QPF AND EVEN                
WHERE RAIN DOES FALL... LESS THAN 1/2 INCH EXPECTED W MTNS...LESS               
THAN 1/4 INCH SE OF MTNS BY EARLY FRI MRNG. LOWS TONIGHT M-U30S IN              
THE PIEDMONT...20S MTNS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...A WK WV OF LOW PRES IS XPCTD TO DEVELOP                 
INVOF THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG A STALLING CDFNT BY FRI MORNING.                   
ALOFT...AN H8 FNT WL BE ORIENTED NE-SW INVOF THE CWA THRU FRI AFTN.             
THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE W/ THE               
FNT. THE NAM IS SLOWER...KEEPING AREA IN W/SWLY FLOW...W/ SOME LGT              
RA ACRS AT LEAST THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. THE 21Z/03 SREF MEAN IS              
SIMILAR TO THE NAM. HWVR...EVEN H8 WNDS VEERING TO 270 (A LA 00Z                
GFS) WOULD COMMENCE DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND CAA. SO I KEPT JUST A SLGT             
CHC POP FOR THE SRN 1/3RD OF CWA FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIR               
AMT OF CLD CVR...SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LWR               
50S.                                                                            
FRI NGT THRU SATURDAY...UPR TROF ACRS THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES...AS              
REINFORCING S/W DIVES SE FM THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL            
SNDGS INDICATING VARYING LAYERS OF MOISTURE IN FAST WLY FLOW. SO                
PCLOUDY CONDS W/ BLO NORMAL TEMPS CONT (MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LWR             
30S AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S).                                
SATURDAY EVE THRU SUNDAY...A POTENT S/W TROF QUICKLY DIVES SE AND               
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS OVRNGT SATURDAY. NWLY WNDS INCR AND                    
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THERE BEING A LTL LLVL MOISTURE BRIEFLY            
W/ PASSAGE OF LLVL TROF. INHERITED POPS/TEMPS LUK GOOD...SO FEW                 
CHANGES WERE MADE. BASICALLY...A LOW-END CHC OF SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE            
TN/NC BORDER SATURDAY NGT...TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. TEMPS BLO            
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...THE FIRST PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE           
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS FROM THE               
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRANSLATING OFF THE EAST                
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE                
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A SHARP             
AND VIGOROUS UPPER TROF SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN                
ROCKIES AND TAKES ON A NEAR NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE DEEP            
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS. OVERALL THE GFS SEEMS             
TO HAVE SHOWN CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY CONCERNING THE              
AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE                    
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE GFS AND                
ECMWF ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z            
ECMWF IS ABOUT A FULL 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS CONCERNING THE               
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE            
GFS APPEARS TO FAVOR A POTENTIAL QLCS SEVERE WX THREAT ACROSS THE FA            
AS IT PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.               
WITH PLAN VIEW CAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 40-50            
KTS ALONG AND NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT               
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT QLCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD                 
PERHAPS BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT AS THE GFS HAS               
SHOWN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM IN THE             
PREVIOUS RUN AND NOW A SEVERE WX THREAT. IN SUMMARY...GIVEN THE                 
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS              
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT 12            
TO 18 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS ACRS N GA             
AND ERN TN BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR E THE MVFR               
WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KAVL SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF               
THE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT OTHER TAF SITES WILL ONLY FLIRT              
WITH IT. DEEPER AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER EAST ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND             
THE NC PIEDMONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CLOUD BASE IN THE LOW END OF             
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS...IN THE 3500            
TO 4500 FOOT RANGE. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT THERE            
IS NO MECHANISM LIKE UPSLOPE OR UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP OR MAINTAIN THE              
CLOUD DECK OVER THE PIEDMONT. FOR THAT REASON...THINK THE MOST                  
LIKELY CEILING AT KCLT WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET SO THAT WILL BE             
CARRIED IN THE TAF. MVFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT MY CONFIDENCE              
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN A TEMPO. IF IT DOES HAPPEN...THE                
MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE 22Z-04Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OVER KCLT              
IN THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. GLAD TO SEE NEW LAMP GUIDANCE COMING              
AROUND TO A LATER WIND SHIFT...MOST LIKELY AFTER 01Z. SUBSEQUENT                
AMENDMENTS TO KCLT WILL SUPPORT THE TREND TO A LATER SHIFT TO NW                
WIND IF IT CONTINUES...AND WILL RE-ADDRESS THE MVFR CEILING                     
POTENTIAL. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ALL TAF SITES FOR THE BETTER PART            
OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MID                   
MORNING FRIDAY. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR FROM 16Z ONWARD WITH A NORTH            
OR NORTHEAST WIND.                                                              
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRI. A COLD FRONT              
WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND CIG/VSBY                       
RESTRICTIONS PSBL INTO SUN MRNG. HI PRES REBUILDS SUN NIGHT-MON.                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SBK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PM/RB                                                               
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...BSH                                                                 
AVIATION...PM                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
855 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MIXING BEHIND SURFACE WARM FRONT/SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS HAS              
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO CONTINUE RISING THIS               
EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ABOVE FREEZING              
AS OF 02Z. COLDER AIR STILL POISED TO OUR NORTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO            
MAKE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER TONIGHT SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN MN                
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND COLD FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST            
ND MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE MADE QUITE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS              
TO HOURLY TEMPS TO SHOW NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPS             
YET THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING...WITH SHARPER DECLINE LATER             
IN THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT                
LOWS 2-4 DEGREES OVERALL...WITH LOWS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE               
VERIFICATION PERIOD TOWARD 14Z...THOUGH READINGS WILL LIKELY STILL              
FALL A LITTLE MORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE               
A SUBTLE REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON.                                              
AS FOR PRECIP...BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH PASSED THROUGH MAINLY THE             
NORTHEAST CWA WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA...WITH             
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND RUC MAINTAINING PUSH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE               
NIGHT. HAVE CUT BACK POPS AS A RESULT...HANGING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE            
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTS                   
SOUTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM/ZFP HAVE BEEN SENT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS RADAR              
IMAGES SHOWING DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY                 
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE            
LATE EVENING...THEN TREND TOWARD A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK AFTER              
06Z AS MOISTURE POISED TO THE NORTH COMES SOUTHWARD. SOME                       
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY MVFR               
CIGS BREAK UP ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SUGGESTING THE LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING THROUGH 18Z.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...PUT                 
SCATTERED 2500 FT AT TAF SITES AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ON A MODERATELY                 
STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE MID AND               
UPPER 20S...EVEN SOME LOW TO MID 30S FROM NORTHWEST IOWA WEST                   
THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE DIVING             
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. INITIALLY...THIS ENERGY WILL NEED TO             
OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR FROM ABOUT 925-800MB. LOOKS LIKE WE            
WILL OVERCOME THIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR               
SNOW AROUND HON FROM ABOUT 22Z THROUGH 1Z...FSD FROM ABOUT 0Z-3Z AND            
SUX...WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...FROM ABOUT 2Z-5Z. WENT             
WITH SOME NON-DIURNAL FALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS WINDS AND               
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE EVENING AND            
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MUCH COLDER AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO            
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY ABOUT 10Z...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES              
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS THROUGH EARLY                 
TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO THE UPPER              
TEENS SOUTH.                                                                    
CLEARING MAY BE PRETTY STG ERN PART OF FCST AREA SAT DESPITE NAM                
TYPICALLY WANTING TO LINGER LO LV MOISTR OVER AREA. AS HIGH                     
APPROACHES AND RIDGES INTO AREA SUBSDNCE SHOULD TAKE OVER. SOME                 
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ERN PART OF FCST AREA ESPLY IN THE SW.                     
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STILL BE FALLING IN ERY MRNG                
WILL NOT DO TOO MUCH RECOVERING AND HIGHS SOME AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE            
IN ERY MRNG PREDAWN TIME WITH DAYTIME WARMING ONLY ALMOST                       
COMPENSATING FOR CONTD MORNING FALL.                                            
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TEMPS WILL DROP WELL ERN FCST AREA              
SUN EVE AND EVEN A LTL THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPS IN THE W                 
LVL OFF SAT EVE AND BEGIN TO WARM SLWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STG LO LVL              
WARM ADVECTN PATTRN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD BAND OF LGT SNOW              
WHICH SHOULD MOVE EWD/NEWD ACRS AREA LATE SAT NGT AND SUN MRNG. SOME            
OF THIS WILL STILL BE LEFT IN THE NORTHEAST FOR SUN AFTN BUT SHUD BE            
MOSTLY OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY. IN FACT...HAVE KEPT THE PCPN AS SNOW             
AS THINKING IS THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT BEFORE IT GETS WARM ENUF            
FOR FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ANY AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME               
WITH THERMAL SUPPORT AND LIFT NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY DEEP...THAT IS            
WONT GO TOO FAR UP INTO MID LEVELS. SFC TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 20S            
MOST OF FCST AREA SUN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SW.                             
SUN NGT THRU TUE PERIOD PRESENTS INCRG PROBLEMS WITH DIFFERENCES IN             
MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW FAVOR GFS SOLUTION OF A GENERALLY DRY PD.              
ECMWF HINTS AT SIGNFCNT SNOW EVENT PSBL FOR SERN FCST AREA BY                   
SOMEHOW BRINGING THE UPPER LOW COMING ACRS CA/BAJA BORDER AREA SUN              
NEWD FAR ENUF TO AFFECT FCST AREA. FOR NOW FAVOR GFS/NAM/CANADIAN               
SOLUTION OF THE DRY FCST BUT WILL HAVE IN A SLGT CHC FOR MON IN                 
DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. NOGAPS MODEL IN A LTL DIFFERENT WAY TRIES TO            
BRING AN AREA OF LGT SNOW UP TO FCST AREA AS WELL. MON SHUD BE                  
RELTVLY MILD ON TEMPS THEN COOLING FOR TUE.                                     
WED THRU FRI PERIOD PRESENTS EVEN MORE WIDELY DIFFERENT MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS AND WILL CONT TO LEAN TO THE COLDER GFS WHICH IS IN LINE              
WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR ON TEMPS. AS FOR PCPN...MENTION OF             
LGT SNOW WITH LOW POPS AS PER HPC GUIDNCE SEEMS IN ORDER BOTH WITH              
MIDWEEK CDFNT AND IN COLD AIR BEHIND IT...AT LEAST FOR NOW AND TILL             
WE GET INDICATIONS OF DECENT SFC RIDGING IN COLD AIR WHICH WE DONT              
HAVE NOW. 00Z CANADIAN HAD A MOST INTERESTING SOLUTION OF WARMING IT            
UP ALREADY ON FRI THEN HITTING THE AREA WITH A PSBLY MAJOR SNOWSTORM            
FOR THAT FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THAT SEEMS A LTL GUNG HO BUT AT LEAST               
THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A PATTERN STARTING ABOUT THEN WHICH             
WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON.              
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/JM                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MSAS SHOWS SFC TROF IS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AS FORECASTED...WITH               
NW WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND SYSTEM. RUC IS SHOWING FAIRLY                        
IMPRESSIVE 85H THETA-E FORCING ASSOC WITH SFC TROF...COUPLED WITH               
INCREASE OMEGA IN THE 85H-7H AND 7H-5H LAYERS. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO              
BE A FAIRLY GOOD BET...AND HAVE UPPED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH                
AND EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DOESN`T LOOK TO BE MUCH FOR ACCUMS AS              
DRY AS THE SYSTEM IS...BUT SHOULD BE EFFECIENT AT MAKING SNOW.                  
CURRENT FCSTD HIGHS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL                 
WAA QUICKLY MOVING IN. UPDATED WORDED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN FORECAST                 
CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                    
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                  
ND...AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE HIGHS CLOUDS ARE ERODING              
THE LOW CLOUDS WITH KABR REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AS OF 8Z. KATY                   
HOWEVER IS STILL REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES. THE AREA OF LOW                      
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS               
CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE MONTANA...CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS                  
AGREE WELL WITH BRINGING THIS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH                
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. NOW                
COMES THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS TO WHEN WILL IT SNOW TODAY?                     
AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WINDS AT 850               
MBS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH MID LEVEL RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30                 
PERCENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER KMBG IS MOIST ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW                  
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BUFKIT SHOWS THE BEST TIMING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN            
AROUND 21Z IN KABR AND KPIR. KATY IS MOIST ENOUGH FOR SNOW CLOSER               
TO 0Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE WE HIGH POPS               
WITH LOW QPF AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL FORCING.              
THERE IS SOME JET SUPPORT AT 300 MBS TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF 130 KT              
JET STREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY RANGE              
FROM AN INCH OR LESS...PER THE CARIBOU SNOWFALL AMOUNT TOOL.                    
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH                   
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE LOOKS               
TO BE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVEL LEAVING ME TO BELIEVE WE              
WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.                           
WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT TAKING                   
PLACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS EVENT TAKING                 
PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE PAST                  
FIVE MODEL RUNS. THE WARM AIR AT THE MID LEVELS BEGINS TO MIX DOWN              
TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S               
IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                                                   
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                      
THE LONG RANGE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN                   
QUITE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH              
180 HOURS. THAT PATTERN BASICALLY COMPRISED OF A MID LEVEL WEST                 
COAST RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF. THIS OF                  
COURSE PLACES THE ABR CWA IN A PESKY NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION WITH              
A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGING AROUND THE AREA. SO...NEEDLESS TO                
SAY TIMING OF PCPN AND COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE SOMEWHAT                         
CHALLENGING. KEPT PCPN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH                
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THEN                 
WENT DRY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THAT TIME ANOTHER STRONGISH                
LOOKING CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SHOULD SUFFICE              
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BY THURSDAY A MORE ROBUST               
CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD SLIDE DOWN INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY              
THE EASTERN CWA. LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS                 
SHOW A PRETTY BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WITH A WEALTH OF COLD                 
AIR BEGINNING TO WELL UP OVER WESTERN CANADA AS THE MID LEVEL                   
PATTERN GOES THROUGH A RETROGRESSIVE PHASE. COULD THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE MONTH BE COLD AND STORMY?                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A FEW LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD                      
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND                
EARLY AFTERNOON FEATURING CLOUDS MOSTLY AOA 10K FEET. HOWEVER...BY              
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLE                 
SOUTH OVER THE REGION...AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCASIONALLY CAUSE               
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SD                                                                 
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
221 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE PATCHY               
LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA               
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS PESKY ACTIVITY WILL                     
PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT                
RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK SURFACE TROFFING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY              
EVENING EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE BROAD 500 MB                
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL                
PATTERN TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW               
THE WAA TO STRENGTHEN AND THE DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE OVER THE              
REGION RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGH MON. THE MAV AND MET                  
FORECAST TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH MON MORNING ARE IN PRETTY GOOD                  
AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS TREND TOO MUCH IN THE                  
SHORT TERM. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER                
THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE              
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT                
IN INCREASED 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES               
NEXT MON AND TUES AND THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH ANOTHER STRONG COLD                
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION NEXT TUES. SO FAR...BOTH THE ECMWF AND                 
THE GFS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE WITH              
THE GFS SHOWING A LITTLE FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE                     
500 MB LOW/TROUGH VERSUS THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH                 
THE GFS IS OK FOR TEMPS AND WORSE FOR POPS WITH THE LATEST GFS MEX              
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS INTO WED. DUE TO THE                  
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWN IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD...WILL STICK                  
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT GFS MEX NUMBERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF               
THE POPS FOR MON. THE INCREASE SHOWN IN THE POPS ON WED IN THE                  
LATEST MEX RUN MAY LOWER IN THE NEXT RUN...SO MY CONFIDENCE IN                  
POPS FOR NEXT WED IS PRETTY LOW.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS            
IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL PRODUCE VFR/MVFR SKIES            
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN RAPIDLY            
CLEAR AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS              
TO THE NORTHWEST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS                   
GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 8 FEET WITH A 7             
SECOND PERIOD AT 11 CST/17 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN               
EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND UNTIL 6 PM            
CST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE. HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS AND              
SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MARINE               
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN FARTHER EAST...WITH WINDS AND              
SEAS INCREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE             
OVER TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AS A               
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED                 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AHEAD               
OF...AND BEHIND...THE COLD FRONT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  52  71  55  75 /  20  10   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          49  70  54  78 /  20  10   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            47  70  52  77 /  10  10   0   0                           
MCALLEN              48  73  53  77 /  10  10   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      48  71  53  76 /  10  10   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   56  69  57  71 /  20  10   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6                 
PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...66                                                            
MESO/NOWCASTING...MARTINEZ                                                      
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND                      
SOUTHWEST AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND                      
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A WEAK                  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS ARE                   
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON THE WIND                  
DIRECTION.                                                                      
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING.               
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AND IT IS SHOWING IN                 
THE GDP OBS. HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE...AND                 
HAVE UPDATED ALL RELEVANT PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                                                             
HENNIG                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
938 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AND IT IS SHOWING IN                 
THE GDP OBS. HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE...AND                 
HAVE UPDATED ALL RELEVANT PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                                                             
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS                  
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING                 
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. A TRANSITION              
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A                
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW               
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO                      
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              44  29  61  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                49  31  67  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  49  35  67  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  35  70  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  34  60  39  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   47  30  65  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   51  24  65  28  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    49  31  70  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
550 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS                  
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING                 
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. A TRANSITION              
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A                
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW               
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO                      
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UDPATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              44  29  61  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                49  31  67  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  49  35  67  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  35  70  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  34  60  39  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   47  30  65  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   51  24  65  28  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    49  31  70  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
32                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1011 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY SATURDAY PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN              
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY                 
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
THE LATEST 12KM NAM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RUC13 IS DOING A GOOD                
JOB SHOWING THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. NAM MODEL                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF THIS CLOUD DECK TO SHIFT                   
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OUR SRN CWA THROUGH DAWN. HAVE MADE                     
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                   
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS                 
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW                  
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP                  
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA RIDGES (BLF) WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE                  
AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CALLING THE RIDGES WARMER...STILL LOOKING               
AT A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO                
LOWER 20S EAST AND ALONG SW VA WESTERN RIDGES. THE 12KM NAM IS                  
DEPICTING                                                                       
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A                 
CLIPPER CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING            
THROUGH THE DAY ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE              
IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINING COLD            
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES -4C TO -7C. IF PRECIP DOES FALL SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON...IT WILL REMAIN AS SNOW...ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE                 
RIDGE AS RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW.. IF CLOUDS              
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED AND A FEW              
FLAKES COULD BE OBSERVED IN THE PIEDMONT. OF COURSE...THAT IS IF                
PRECIP FALLS. 12Z NAM BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST MODELS TODAY ONLY HAS             
GREENBIER AND BATH COUNTY WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP. ON THE OTHER                  
HAND...12Z GFS/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN HAS PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS THE                  
FOOTHILLS. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE START TIME AND                     
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WITH PARENT LOW SO FAR NORTH AND OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES. WILL SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH      
THESE CONCERNS AND THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO SATURATE               
AGAIN. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE             
IN THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE              
DAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
PASSAGE OF ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING PERIOD OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST              
WINDS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT             
OF ARCTIC AIR...850 TEMPS DIPPING TO M12-M15 DEG C RANGE SUNDAY                 
MORNING. DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS ENTIRE CWA            
COULD SEE A -SHSN WITH ITS PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...A DUSTING EVEN              
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS IF FORCING CAN GENERATE SUSTAINABLE PERIOD            
OF CRYSTAL GROWTH THERE.  OF COURSE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE              
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE MTN PEAKS TO RECEIVE             
AN INCH OR TWO.                                                                 
TRAJECTORY FORECAST FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SUGGEST FETCH OFF OF               
LAKE MICHIGAN TO INTERSECT MOUNTAINS OVER CENTRAL WVA.  THIS IS NOT             
A GREAT FETCH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...SUGGESTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE            
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. NEVER THE LESS...IN SPITE OF THE                  
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE...LESS THAN 5KFT IN DEPTH...ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS NEAR M15 DEG C WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT             
CRYSTAL GROWTH FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE SATURDAY           
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.                                            
ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR HIGHER SPOTS OF                   
GREENBRIER/MERCER...WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN A SMALL TIME               
PERIOD WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COMBINE FROM 6Z-15Z SUN.              
FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN WESTERN GREENBRIER BY NOON             
SUNDAY...AS SNW SHWS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. AS USUAL THE            
LWR ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER...LEWISBURG PROPER...WILL GET MUCH                 
LESS. UPSLOPE SNOW DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY 12Z NW               
NC...WHERE 1-3" COULD FALL...MOST OF COURSE ALONG THE SKI RESORTS.              
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...1030                
MB...PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND 06 UTC...THEN TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC            
COAST BY 18 UTC.  CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE              
COLD SURFACE TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.  WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE            
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING TWO SEPARATE             
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS            
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY 3...BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS BY DAYS 6/7.                                             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR             
ADVECTION DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE                
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A DROP IN                 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE                      
FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH FRONT NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON                   
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH ALL THE               
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 EXCEPT TO CONFINE              
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE                        
PERIOD...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.                                       
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                  
IN.                                                                             
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE                      
MORNING...AND THEN LOWERING CIGS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A                
CLIPPER MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS               
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW INTO THE BLF AND LWB AREAS MAINLY AFTER                 
THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THEN...WITH                 
CIGS DROPPING TO LOW END VFR. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...SNOW MAY BRING  MVFR           
TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS TO BLF AND LWB...AND THESE FLIGHT                        
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW               
SHOWERS AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES BY. ROA...LYH AND DAN WILL BE VFR              
INTO SUNDAY...BUT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ARRIVING LATE SAT NIGHT.         
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS                    
ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD                   
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING DETERIORATING                 
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND A GOOD CHC OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND               
VSBYS BY THE END OF THE DAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PM                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP                                                              
SHORT TERM...PM                                                                 
LONG TERM...AMS                                                                 
AVIATION...RCS/WP                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
357 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY               
MORNING...THEN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                    
TODAY-                                                                          
COLD 850 MILLIBAR POCKET WILL GET WHISKED EAST AS WARM AIR                      
ADVECTION GETS GOING. QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU AROUND FROM WESTERN               
WI EXTENDING INTO IA AND MN WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING SEWD               
FROM CANADA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE LOWER 20S WE HAVE                  
GOING IN THE GRIDS SO WONT CHANGE TOO MUCH THERE. SO EVEN THOUGH                
WAA KICKING IN...INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WINDS AND THE COLD START                  
WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP THE CHILL GOING ALL DAY.                                  
TONIGHT-                                                                        
RAPID ISENTROPIC MOISTENING ON THE 280-285K ISENTROPIC PLOTS THIS               
EVENING AS DECENT UPGLIDE LEADS TO SATURATION WITHIN THE WAA REGIME             
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH               
700-300MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWING A PEAK IN THE L-M20S AROUND              
6Z WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA EXITING                 
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. NOT A REAL STRONG CROSS HAIRS SIGNATURE.            
MIXING RATIOS ARE AROUND 1.5 G/KG IN THE 700-725MB LAYER. RATIOS                
EXPECTED TO BE 15:1. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.15 THE GOING 2-3                
INCH FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH TWEEK. WILL MENTION SOME BLOWING               
SNOW IN THE HWO AS BUFKIT WINDS/PROGGD SFC GRADIENT SHOW PRETTY                 
BRISK CONDITIONS DURING TIME OF PEAK SNOWFALL AND COMBINED WITH                 
HIGHER RATIOS/LOWER WATER CONTENT SNOW...COULD BE SOME ISSUES                   
WITH THAT.                                                                      
SATURDAY-                                                                       
SURFACE-850 FRONT WILL BE EXITING EARLY WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS              
ROTATING ACROSS MIDDAY. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.                     
RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WITH 700 MILLIBAR DRYING            
AND SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY AFTER PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.               
FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SNOW               
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CRANKING UP AS WELL. GFS/NAM            
AND CRAS SUGGESTING LIGHT QPF TIED TO THE MID LEVEL VORT.                       
SUNDAY-                                                                         
QUIET AND CHILLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE.                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY-                                                       
SNOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AS RENEWED ISENTROPIC                 
FORCING INTERACTS WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET                   
STREAM. RAPID SATURATION AGAIN NOTED ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES WITH            
CRASHING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF HAD QPF              
MAX TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER THEY HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH MORE INTO THE            
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF QPF            
ACORSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BEST ROUTE FOR NOW IS TO GO WITH CHANCE               
POPS FOR THIS LEAD WAA EVENT.                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY-                                                       
00Z ECMWF DEFINITELY PAINTING A GLOOMIER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER               
SOUTHERN WAVE SCOOTING NEWD TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS MUCH              
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A QUICKER MORE PROGRESSIVE            
LOOK TO THINGS. ECMWF CERTAINLY TAPS MORE MOISTURE AND BRINGS ALMOST            
0.50 INCH LIQUID WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED ENERGY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOWING WIDE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS                   
UPSTREAM OVER MN/IA CAUGHT UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  WITH               
THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER WI THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASING             
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS THIS               
MORNING WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FEET. LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWING            
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  WOULD EXPC CEILINGS TO             
INCREASE TO VFR THIS AFTN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF                 
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.  PERIOD OF SNOW FROM 05Z THROUGH 14Z                
WILL RESULT IN IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING            
AS RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SURFACE TEMPS                 
AROUND 4 DEGREES C ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE              
20S TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS...AS VERIFIED BY HARRISON CRIB LAST FEW             
HOURS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL RESULT       
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE               
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO               
SURFACE THIS EVENING BUT ATTM THINKING THIS WILL BE BRIEF...SO WL               
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING              
LEADING UP TO WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SYSTEM. STRONG LOW             
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER              
CHANCE FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND/OR GUSTS             
DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HENCE CONVERTED SMALL                 
CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT SAT AFTN TO GALE WATCH AND                    
EXTENDED HEADLINE TO 06Z/SUN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR            
     LMZ643>646.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...PAC                                                           
AVIATION/MARINE...MBK                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
400 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                     
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH MAX           
UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL             
INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE DOMINATE BAND             
AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND SHEAR EFFECTS.                
NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUPPORTING THE                    
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. HIRES            
WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4             
INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE DOMINATE                   
BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE MESOSCALE               
PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM                  
WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                   
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                           
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE                          
PERIOD...BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.                
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT               
SBN AND FWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MOS AND UPSTREAM OBS. STRONG               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW OFF               
THE SFC AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL                 
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY                                  
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30                  
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR                
BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE FA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                    
DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST FA...WITH IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY EVENING IN A COMBINATION OF BLOWING                  
SNOW AND HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. HAVE TRENDED SBN IN THIS DIRECTION.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW PRES TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT             
THRU THE MORNING WILL BRING -SN TO KCMX/KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE              
LOW...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP S ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BRINGING A PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND            
BLSN AS WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN                 
SHSN/BLSN SHOULD OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HRS AT BOTH                           
SITES...BEGINNING AT KCMX EARLY/MID MORNING AND AT KSAW LATE                    
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED MID TO LATE            
AFTN. DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX            
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN TO                  
DIMINISH...AND WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                 
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.                                                   
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING              
     FOR MIZ001-003.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY               
     FOR MIZ005.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY              
     FOR MIZ013-014.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                   
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING                 
     FOR LSZ263-264.                                                            
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ242>245.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
402 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA                 
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON             
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT               
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A                  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST... AS             
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS            
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                        
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS... SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW             
THE GFS HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5               
THOUSAND FEET... WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN.              
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE                    
CATEGORY... AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PORTION SINCE PASSING THROUGH VERY DRY...COLD AIR AT               
THE SURFACE A FEW FLAKES MAY MAKE TO THE SURFACE.                               
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S             
IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS               
THE NORTHWEST TO THE  MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON            
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE              
NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH.             
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PREFER THE MET GUIDANCE... WITH              
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.            
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH... WE            
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN                   
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE                
SURFACE... AND ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM            
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO            
LOWER 50S. CLOUDS COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE              
30S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 400 AM...                                                                 
WHEELS QUICKLY FALL OFF THE WAGON AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES              
BEGIN TO APPEAR BEYOND 48 HOURS (MONDAY MORNING) AT 500 MILLIBARS.              
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE               
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE PRETTY MUCH APPROACHES ZERO REGARDING THE               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY).                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRESSURE               
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH                 
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING...                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE COOL POOL COULD PRODUCE RAIN.                  
LIMITED MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PREVENTING RAIN                
CHANCES FROM GOING TO LIKELY OR HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.            
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO            
45 KNOTS OR HIGHER JUST OFF THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY AND GFS MODEL                 
HELICITY QUITE LARGE AT 12Z WEDNESDAY (GREATER THAN 350). LCL LESS              
THAN 2500 FEET. THE HOPE IS THAT AN EARLY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS               
PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE STABILITY TO MAKE THIS A NON SEVERE EVENT.               
THIS IS THE CURRENT THINKING BUT THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IS SLIM. THIS             
EVENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. TIMING WOULD BE FOR A DAYTIME            
EVENT WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH LIKELY WEDNESDAY              
WITH THE THOUGHT CHANCES WILL GO CATEGORICAL IN FUTURE FORECASTS.               
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.              
ECMWF FORECASTS ANOTHER GULF LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY PRODUCING             
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ITS TRACK HAS THE LOW             
SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR              
THE END OF THE EVENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS STATED                    
EARLIER... CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN LOW... AND WILL LEAVE SMALL RAIN             
CHANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONE AT THIS TIME AS HAVE NO CONFIDENCE             
IN WHICH WAY TO SHIFT THEM.                                                     
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GFS IS              
TOO DEEP WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AND THEREFORE ADVECTS TOO MUCH                
WARMTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S SUNRISE             
WEDNESDAY LIKELY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS FRONT SWEEPS            
THROUGH THE REGION... TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH AND THEN             
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON... IF THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS TRUE.                  
WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE FIFTIES.                                                 
MORNING LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE             
DROPPING SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE             
40S WITH LOW 50S FRIDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
310 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST...                
CONTINUE TO THE EAST TODAY... THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN               
ALBERTA CLIPPER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE            
REGION THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE ITS                
GRIP ON CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST... AS             
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS            
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                        
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS... SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW             
THE GFS HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5               
THOUSAND FEET... WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN.              
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE                    
CATEGORY... AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PORTION SINCE PASSING THROUGH VERY DRY...COLD AIR AT               
THE SURFACE A FEW FLAKES MAY MAKE TO THE SURFACE.                               
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S             
IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS               
THE NORTHWEST TO THE  MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON            
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE              
NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH.             
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PREFER THE MET GUIDANCE... WITH              
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.            
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH... WE            
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN                   
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE                
SURFACE... AND ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM            
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO            
LOWER 50S. CLOUDS COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE              
30S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION              
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SPECIFICS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN               
DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS             
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE FAR             
WESTERN GOMEX BY WED. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE             
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT (FROM THE GOMEX) TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS OF THE            
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...WED LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
THAN TUE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH                  
MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT                
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW                       
THURSDAY...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX              
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                 
COAST ON THU/FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE                 
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL TIMING             
DIFFERENCES...AND THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED             
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AS IS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR                  
TWEAKING TO POPS AND TEMPS. WILL BASICALLY SHOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUE            
THROUGH FRI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE ENTIRE            
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FCST IN THIS PERIOD SINCE              
THEY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES...                    
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP...AND THE TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW THAT MAY                
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPS              
ON TUE/WED...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
130 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS              
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY... AND                
THEN AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS                 
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE.                                         
OCCASIONAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT                
ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET...WILL PRODUCE                      
MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS COLD              
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAKENING 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH               
BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE REMAINS A PROMINENT                
DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN             
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH DEWPOINT ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS STAYING UP IN THE UPPER 20S TO              
LOWER 30S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS CENTRAL NC....AND THIS                
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH A RATHER                 
LARGE SPREAD DUE TO THE LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT. EXPECT LOWS OF IN              
THE MID 20S NW PIEDMONT...TO NEAR FREEZING SOUTHEAST.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH A GOOD BIT              
OF SUNSHINE BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD MIDDAY. A CLIPPER            
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... THEN PASS THROUGH NC AND OFF COAST               
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS MORE SUBDUED WITH THIS VORTICITY                
MAXIMUM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WEAKENING IT IN FAVOR OF A                    
STRONGER MAXIMUM TO ITS NW... HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL MODEL            
TREND TOWARD A STRONGER WAVE WITH MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AS IT                       
APPROACHES. THE 12Z WRF-ARW IS GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS                  
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC VERY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE                
EVENING... AND THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD GREATER QPF AS WELL...            
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS LIQUID ACROSS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT.                
GIVEN THIS TREND... WILL SLIGHTLY EXPAND AREALLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... SWEEPING THEM EAST AND RAISING THEM TO               
20-30% SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST WET BULB PROFILES ARE PRIMARILY               
BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET WHERE THE             
AIR IS ALSO MARKEDLY DRIER. BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR                
SATURATION UP TO -20C... SO A PRECIP TYPE OF LIGHT RAIN AT ONSET AND            
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING NORTH OF                  
HIGHWAY 64 WILL BE RETAINED. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND APPARENT LACK            
OF CONCENTRATED STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS SO AS            
TO BE INSIGNIFICANT... HOWEVER IF IT APPEARS THAT LIFT WILL BE                  
BRIEFLY ENHANCED... WE MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOSTLY SNOW MAINLY             
NEAR THE VA BORDER... BUT AGAIN THE BREVITY OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE              
SHOULD RENDER IT INSIGNIFICANT FOR TRAVELERS. THICKNESSES AND                   
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AGREE ON HIGHS OF 45-52. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT               
26-34 WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.                   
FOR SUNDAY: THE MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR NE                 
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE POLAR HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... AND                   
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE               
PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES... THE RESULTING TIGHTENING MSLP            
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH                 
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).            
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CONSIDERING THE POLAR SOURCE OF THE              
INCOMING SURFACE HIGH... HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO 41-48. -GIH                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE                    
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND                      
MONDAY...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM              
WINDS WILL ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MON MORNING...AND                
EXPECT VERY CHILLY LOW TEMP READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S. CLEAR                
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS             
BY THE AFT/EVE AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM OF AN AREA            
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. FOR               
TEMPS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES (1285-                
1295M AT 12Z MON UP TO 1310-1325M BY 00Z TUE)...WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS             
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                          
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                                                         
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION              
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SPECIFICS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN               
DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS             
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE FAR             
WESTERN GOMEX BY WED. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE             
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT (FROM THE GOMEX) TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS OF THE            
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...WED LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
THAN TUE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH                  
MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT                
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW                       
THURSDAY...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX              
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                 
COAST ON THU/FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE                 
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL TIMING             
DIFFERENCES...AND THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED             
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AS IS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR                  
TWEAKING TO POPS AND TEMPS. WILL BASICALLY SHOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUE            
THROUGH FRI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE ENTIRE            
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FCST IN THIS PERIOD SINCE              
THEY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES...                    
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP...AND THE TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW THAT MAY                
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPS              
ON TUE/WED...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -GIH                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CBL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
311 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
MUCH OF THE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES IN TWO AREAS....TODAY/S              
WINDS AND COLD WITH FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW...AND SUNDAY                      
AFTN/NIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE SHORT                  
TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THANKS TO SOLID SHORT TERM MODEL                   
AGREEMENT BEFORE THINGS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.           
CURRENTLY...POTENT FAMILY OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WI/MN IN                 
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 160KT JETLET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF                   
IMPRESSIVE WRN CONUS RIDGING. THIS HAS DRIVEN A LARGE AREA OF                   
LGT/MOD SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH                
AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE ALONG/EAST OF MS RIVER. IN WAKE              
OF DEEP LIFT/STEADY SNOW...SOME -FZDZ/SNOW GRAIN MIXTURE HAS                    
DEVELOPED BETWEEN TC METRO AND KLSE WITH MANY OBS HAVING UNKNOWN                
PRECIP AND LOOK OUTSIDE THE OFFICE CONFIRMS A SKOSH OF FZDZ IN                  
THE NARROW WARM SECTOR SOUTH/WEST OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH                
WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING TOP OF LOW CLOUD DECK RIGHT AT -8C                
TO -10C...WHICH SUPPORTS THE MIX OF FZDZ/SNOW GRAINS. 1002MB SFC                
LOW NEAR KEAU ALSO HELPING TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MS                   
RIVER INTO CNTL WISCONSIN. COLD TEMPS /AND GUARANTEED ICE                       
ACTIVATION/ NOT TOO FAR ENOUGH WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE LOW               
TEENS NOW IN CNTL MN WITH STRONG WINDS /25-30KTS/. NEXT SHORTWAVE               
OF CONCERN SEEN IN GOES WV LOOPS CRESTING WRN CONUS RIDGE OFF BC                
COAST.                                                                          
TODAY...COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE OR A                  
LITTLE EARLIER WHICH STARTS A TEMP FREEFALL AS 850MB TEMPS START                
DAY AT -10C AND END THE DAY AT -20C. SFC TEMPS WILL BE IN A STEADY              
FALL ALL DAY FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S AT DAYBREAK INTO THE                        
LOW/MIDDLE TEENS BY SUNSET. WINDS A BIG CONCERN TODAY...AS LAPSE                
RATES REALLY STEEPEN IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SUPPORTING                  
TRANSFER OF 30KT GUSTS TO THE SFC IN THE STRONG                                 
SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE               
NEW 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AREA-WIDE...AND THEN THE PERIOD OF TEMPS                 
NEAR 30 AND FZDZ OVERNIGHT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW THE SNOW                  
WILL BLOW AROUND TODAY. THINK WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                    
REALLY DRIFT IN OPEN AREAS...SO EXPANDED BLSN ACROSS ENTIRE AREA                
THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO FALL BACK SOME. DON/T SEE                
VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLSN UPSTREAM...BUT ROADS MAY GET DICEY IN A              
FEW OPEN AREAS. PLENTY OF FLURRIES UPSTREAM IN THE THIN BKN-OVC                 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD...SO KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL AREAS              
SHOULD SEE FLAKES FLYING FROM TIME TO TIME. A LITTLE CONCERN GIVEN              
THE LAPSE RATES THAT A FEW MORE VIGOROUS SHSN MAY DEVELOP...AND                 
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WIND CHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON DIP                 
BELOW ZERO...WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE OUTDOORS TODAY.                        
TONIGHT...RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES FOR A BRIEF               
PERIOD BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD IN FROM                 
WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME GIVEN FRESH               
SNOW AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAPIDLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO DROP              
TEMPS NEAR/BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS TEMPS INTACT.              
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT LIGHT SNOW                          
ACCUMULATION EVENT SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SUN AFTN               
INTO SUN NIGHT. DRIVEN LARGELY BY DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT                  
/WARM ADVECTION/ AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL QG WITH AN OVERALL WEAK               
PV STRUCTURE. WIND VECTORS ON THE THETA SFCS ALMOST PERFECTLY                   
ORTHOGONAL TO THE PRESSURE SFCS SUGGESTING OPTIMUM UPGLIDE AND                  
GOOD OMEGA..CONFIRMED IN CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH              
THE EVENT. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENT...WILL                 
MAKE UP FOR IT IN GOOD SNOWFALL RATIOS /AT START OF EVENT/ AND                  
BETTER MOISTURE ON 280-290K LAYER /SPEC HUMIDITY/. ANOTHER 1-2                  
INCHES LOOKS LIKELY...WITH 3 INCHES PROBABLY AN OUTLIER BUT                     
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF RIVER WITH LIFT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES               
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HERE ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAPID EROSION OF ICE-BEARING CLOUD IN LATE                      
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF GFS/NAM BUFR                  
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY DEEP LOW LEVEL /SFC-2.5KM/ SATURATED                   
LAYER UNDERNEATH THE DRY AIR ALOFT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STILL                 
OCCURRING IN THIS LAYER BUT OMEGA IS WEAK. HINTS OF CONVERGENCE                 
AXIS /WARM FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH AT THIS TIME SO SNOW COULD                     
DEFINITELY END AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO                  
ADDED THIS POTENTIAL TO FORECAST. BOTH MODELS ALSO PAINTING TELL-               
TALE SPECKLES OF VERY LIGHT QPF /DRIZZLE SIGNAL/ ON THE FORECAST                
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THIS TOO NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.                            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
CONFIDENCE STILL WELL BELOW AVG IN THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL SEEING               
HUGE DISCREPANCIES IN NUMEROUS AREAS...FIRST WITH HOW MON                       
NIGHT/TUES WAVES PHASE /OR NOT PHASE/ AND THEN HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR IS           
AROUND FOR WED/THUR/FRI. STILL SEEING VERY LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH                 
LOW RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION                         
DETERMINISTIC RUNS WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 15C TO 20C DIFFERENT FOR              
WED/THUR BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. NO WONDER CONFIDENCE PLOTS                      
BASICALLY SUGGESTING ENSEMBLE DATA USELESS IN THIS DEGREE OF                    
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY.                                                             
THE BIG FOCUS WILL BE ON MON NIGHT/TUES CNTL CONUS STORM WHICH HAS              
SHOWN A TREND IN ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD GIVEN                
VARYING DEGREES OF PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAMS ACROSS THE CNTL               
CONUS. THE NEW 06.00Z ECMWF /PROVEN SUPERIOR IN THIS TIME FRAME TO              
NCEP MODELS/ HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BONAFIDE HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR                 
MUCH OF IOWA INTO SRN WISCONSIN. THERE IS LESSER SUPPORT...BUT                  
SUPPORT NONETHELESS FROM THE 06.00Z NAM-WRF AND CAN GEM...BUT                   
06.00Z GFS AND GEFS PROBABILITIES ARE WELL SOUTH. GIVEN THE                     
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK BABY STEPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND BUMPED UP                  
SNOW CHANCES ALL AREAS...ESP SOUTH TO 50S/60S WITH NOTION THESE                 
MAY NEED TO GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH ONE MORE BATCH OF                      
SUPPORTING RUNS FROM ECMWF/GEM/WRF. THERE/S EVEN A HINT AT A START              
OF RAIN/FZRA IN THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NEED TO SEE MORE                   
SUPPORT FOR THIS BEFORE PUTTING IN FORECAST. BOTTOM LINE...IF                   
ECMWF TRENDS PROVE CORRECT...THIS STORM HAS CAPABILITY FOR                      
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING.                       
FURTHER UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE /NRN STREAM/ SET TO RUN                
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WED/WED NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES HERE...AND                  
THIS WAVE HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES /THUS THE HUGE                 
SPREAD CURRENTLY SEEN IN ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC RUNS/. PLENTY MORE              
ENERGY TO BE HAD IN THIS PATTERN TOWARD END OF WEEK INTO THE                    
WEEKEND...CERTAINLY WILL BE ACTIVE/INTERESTING WITH BOATLOADS OF                
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD IN CANADA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS              
TO WEST CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY INTO SUNDAY                                                   
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SN AND PATCHY -FZDZ WILL EXIT                    
QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PRECIP COMING TO AN END BEFORE              
12Z. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE MVFR STRATO-CU DECK EXTENDS UPSTREAM                
ACROSS MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS BEHIND IT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND               
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE                         
DAY...CREATING SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW THRU THIS                  
MORNING. THESE WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE                   
LOW/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE CREATING SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CLOUD                  
DECK ACROSS WESTERN MN. THESE BREAKS RATHER PATCHY AND TRANSITORY               
AND BKN/OVC MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THRU THE DAY. SFC TO               
850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL              
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHALLOWER MOISTURE/DRIER AIR                   
MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP/SCATTER                 
OUT FOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SUN MORNING WITH                  
CLOUDS INCREASING AND -SN MOVING BACK INTO THE TAF SITES BY LATER               
SUN AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1015 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN RECEDE EAST AND            
WEAKEN. PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, WHILE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN            
MARITIMES AND DEEPENS SHARPLY. BY LATE SUNDAY, DEEP LOW PRESSURE                
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL A RUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR             
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY. A COLD                 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING FCST PACKAGE.  FIRST,                
HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE WHOLE AREA.  THE LATEST RUC HAS              
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE ERN SHORE OF MD AND DELMARVA BY 00Z. THERE             
IS ALSO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THE NAM/WRF AND THE STAT            
GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY DRY.  LATEST OBS HAVE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE            
TEENS, SO THE AMS REMAINS VERY DRY.  SO, A SLIGHT INCREASE SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WANTED TO TAKE THE             
PRUDENT COURSE AND NOT INCREASE THINGS TOO MUCH.  OTHERWISE, HAVE               
ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE             
TRENDS.  MOST OF THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS IS CIRRUS, BUT CLOUDS                   
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN WITH TIME.                                    
WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE MOVES BY US, BUT EVENTUALLY THEY SHOULD DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY            
COMPONENT WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO OUR                
WEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND GUIDANCE.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
TONIGHT, THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A JET                 
STREAK, WHICH WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING, DIGS               
AROUND THE TROUGH`S WESTERN SIDE, BOTTOMS OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT                
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT               
LAKES WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM THIS, BUT THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE                 
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT             
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PIVA, ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THAT SEEMS             
FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH. THEY ALSO AGREE ON THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME MID            
TO UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME APPROACHING LOWER LEVEL            
FRONTOGENESIS, BUT THAT SEEMS TO COME TOGETHER AROUND 12Z. THEY DO              
PAINT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVEL LIFTING                  
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF EXISTS, BUT IS UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN               
INCH AS THE BULK OF THE ACTION IS FORECAST WITH THE SECONDARY LOW.              
THIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKE A SCENARIO IN WHICH STAT GUIDANCE WOULD BE               
WOEFULLY UNDERDONE, AND WE CANNOT FIND ANY POPS FROM ANY PACKAGE IN             
OUR FORECAST AREA THAT EXCEEDS THE CHANCE LEVEL. WE WERE CARRYING               
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS, AND WE`VE BACKED OFF TO LOW LIKELY.            
OUR TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN CONTINUITY, AND BETWEEN THEM AND MODEL                
SOUNDINGS WE CARRY PRECIPITATION TYPES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND             
A CHANGING MIXED BAG FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST              
ARE NOT, AT PRESENT, THOUGHT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.                                 
AFTER THAT, THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW             
COULD BECOME A BOMB AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING            
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE THAT IT THROWS INTO THE              
EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE DECENT JET LIFTING UP              
SAME SIDE OF SAID TROUGH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST BY THE                 
ECMWF, GFS AND NAM TO CAUSE IT TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT                 
SWEEPS ACROSS US. ALL THREE MODELS HAVE A VERY NICE VORTICITY MAX               
MOVING ACROSS US WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS H925 AND H8 WINDS ARE IN             
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY, AND THE ECMWF WINDS ARE AT                
LEAST AS STRONG. THEIR TRAJECTORY IS OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,               
AND THE H8 TEMPERATURES OVER US BY 00Z MONDAY ARE EASILY BELOW                  
-10 DEG C. THEY`RE EASILY BELOW -15 DEG C OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH               
HAPPENS AROUND OR A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK, ARE DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH              
H8, AND THE SUBSIDENCE CAP IN THE COLD AIR IS UP AT AROUND 9K FT FOR            
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS CYCLONIC. THE WINDEX             
SCHEME THAT WE USE OFF THE OLD NGM FOUS DATA SUGGESTS THAT SNOW                 
SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT PHL. MEANWHILE, STAT GUIDANCE POPS ARE             
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST, AND THE HIGHEST ONES ARE FROM THE FWC                    
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
REGARDING POPS, WE`VE DECIDED THAT THE PIVA, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE              
LOWER LEVEL WINDS, THE MORNING FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE, THE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW, THE INITIALLY HIGH                      
SUBSIDENCE CAPS AND THE INDICATIONS OF THE WINDEX TECHNIQUE ARE                 
WORTH UPPING POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST, MODERATE CHANCE            
AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOW END OF CHANCE SOUTHEAST OF THERE.              
WE ARE GOING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAND AND MUCH OF THE WATER, AND              
WE`RE GOING TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS FROM THE FALL            
LINE NORTHWEST. WE CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM AROUND THE I-95                
CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE IN THE HWO. IF               
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT, ANY SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
REGARDING WINDS, WE ARE FORECASTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERION WINDS TO            
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND DIMINISH SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT               
INTO MONDAY. WE WILL NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, BUT AGAIN            
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.                                                   
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY, THE TRAJECTORIES                
ABOVE THE SURFACE MADE US KEEP LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR                    
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR A TIME. OTHERWISE, WE ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.            
WINDS, AS NOTED ABOVE, WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY.                                 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WE STAYED CLOSER TO CONTINUITY                
THAN TO GUIDANCE ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CLOUDS, AND             
WE HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY ARE A COLD BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. WIND CHILLS ON              
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO TANK, AND THEY WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.               
FOR NOW, THEY DO NOT SHOW IN THE TEXT PRODUCT BUT ARE IN THE                    
MATRICES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST                
AND A RETURN FLOW OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH              
REFORMING AND DIGGING TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THE THREAT OF MORE                
PCPN. FOLLOWING HPC PROGS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SO              
THAT MOST ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.                                         
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE WEST ALLOWING ANY               
PCPN TO BECOME SHOWERY. HOWEVER, WITH MORE COLD AIR, ANY PCPN                   
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS.                                                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF               
CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE IS                 
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING                 
ACROSS OR EAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS IS TRUE, THE TIMING AND TRACK             
OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF WE GET AN EAST COAST STORM WITH SNOW               
IN PARTS OF THE AREA OR NOT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,             
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.                                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ALL, IF NOT MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT             
HOURS, COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. SOME CIRRUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM AND CLOUDS WILL                    
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR AS               
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING            
OFF THE EAST COAST. A QUASI-WARM FRONT IS CONTINUED ON THE MODELS TO            
LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MOS STATISTICAL              
GUIDANCE CAPS PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, THERE SHOULD BE             
MORE SUBSTANTIAL, ALBEIT LIGHT, PRECIPITATION AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS             
THROUGH THE AREA IN VIEW OF THE MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND             
"JUST ENOUGH" MOISTURE. SO, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST              
TO DROP TO MARGINAL VFR TONIGHT. FOR THE PHILADELPHIA 30 HOUR TAF,              
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVED TOWARD MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION                    
DIMINISHES TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.                                   
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, NORTHERN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE ALL                 
SNOW. SOUTHERN TAF SITES, ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 1300 METER                
1000-850 HPA THICKNESS DEMARCATION, SHOULD BE WEIGHTED TOWARD RAIN.             
THE CENTRAL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY START OFF AS RAIN, OR A MIX OF                
RAIN AND SNOW, BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM                 
EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS AND DIURNAL TRENDS WHICH CAUSE SURFACE COOLING.             
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER THE HIGH WILL SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTH              
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS                   
OFFSHORE. THEN, WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD               
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL MERGE WELL OFF THE NEW             
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE RESULTANT                        
INTENSIFICATION WILL CAUSE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND AN                    
UNSTABLE FLOW REGIME OVER OUR AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW               
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS,               
WHICH ARE VERY LIKELY TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT AIR TRAVEL SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY BUT MOVE                 
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL HEAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING CONDITIONS TODAY               
AND TONIGHT, BUT THEN LOOK ALIVE MATEY AS HIGH-END GALE CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS                
AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FINE, BUT COLD. RAIN AND SOME            
SNOW MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES, BUT WINDS AND               
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH A LOW             
HEADING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THEY MERGE SUNDAY,                 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CAUSE A STRONG CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA             
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST 925 HPA WINDS ARE                    
FORECAST TO REACH 45 KNOTS, AND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVER RELATIVELY            
WARM WATER, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE EXCELLENT. SO, THE             
INHERITED GALE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A GALE WARNING, AND THE                 
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED...BACKED UP TO 16Z SUNDAY FOR A START TIME,              
AND RUN THROUGH 11Z MONDAY.                                                     
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL                 
TIDES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL                 
REACH THE BLOWOUT TIDE THRESHOLD, ACCORDING TO NGM AND AVIATION                 
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MONDAY BUT MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY.            
THEN, ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY, PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WOULD BE A CASE             
OF WARMER AIR OVER COLDER WATER, SO THERE WOULD BE LESS MIXING OF               
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                     
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT              
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-           
     431-450>455.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DELISI                                                               
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI                                                   
SHORT TERM...DELISI                                                             
LONG TERM...STAUBER                                                             
AVIATION...NIERENBERG                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1049 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY THEN A                      
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH                  
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A COMPLEX STORM                    
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST                   
MODELS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE             
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE              
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO POOL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG              
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID                
40S ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY                 
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.                
CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DECREASES WHEN ASSESSING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS...IT WILL                   
LIKELY BE AFTER 3 PM AND ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE 4 KM WRF                  
SHOWS A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE                 
EVENING IN COASTAL SC ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM-12 KEEPS ALL RAIN JUST               
OFFSHORE. THE GFS BRINGS RAIN TO COASTAL LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS                
THE 00Z ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE RUC-13 IS DRIER. BASED ON THE CURRENT              
POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARING OFF THE               
GA COAST ON VIS SATELLITE...A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT TWO TIERS OF GA COASTAL                   
COUNTIES AND MAYBE ONE LAYER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SC COAST.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...                          
THE LAST OF THE MAINLY LIGHT STRATIFORM RNFL WILL EXIT THE                      
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES                       
CLEARING AND WINDS STIRRING FROM THE NW TO W WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A              
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AIR MASS. SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL                   
AREAS BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES. WE HAVE              
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE COOLER GFS MOS LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WHICH              
FITS IN REAL NICE WITH OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS                  
MORNING...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A FAIRLY UNSETTLED                  
PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.                                   
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF            
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN              
FREE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD                  
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH               
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE                
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST              
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY            
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE            
POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR PRIMARILY COASTAL ZONES...WITH A              
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD EXTENT INTO INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES GIVEN            
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS REVOLVES AROUND THE               
HANDLING OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE            
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. IT DOES APPEAR HOWEVER THAT                
THEY ARE BOTH BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THIS             
WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE RUNS BEFORE A COMMON SOLUTION BECOMES             
CLEARLY APPARENT. THE GFS PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA                       
WEDNESDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST ON              
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH               
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD LATE                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE             
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN             
IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND THE UKMET MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.             
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION...WHICH AIDS IN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING MOST OF               
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE SYSTEMS PROGRESSION DOWN.               
EXPECT THAT THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN                
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SO WILL TRY TO INCORPORATE IDEAS FROM               
EACH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO REDUCE POTENTIAL FORECASTS BUSTS IN            
THE LATTER PERIODS AS THEY COULD BE QUITE LARGE. TO MAKE A LONG                 
STORY SHORT...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WEDNESDAY                 
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AT KCHS...SKIES HAVE RECENTLY CLEARED OUT AND FOG WAS ATTEMPTING                
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SLOWING DOWN THE                
PROCESS. WE START THE MORNING OFF WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SCATTERED                 
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS.                                                      
KSAV APPEARS TO HAVE THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVHD AND               
WE HAVE ONLY HAVE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS TO INITIALIZE THE 12Z                  
CYCLE.                                                                          
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND                
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH                
FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR A WHILE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE                 
SOME LIGHT RAIN PASSES ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF               
WINDOW FOR FOG OR IFR CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS                 
IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD 070300-070600.                  
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY                  
THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE                    
TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM              
IMPACTS THE AREA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE                 
CONDITIONS GOING FOR MOST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH              
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER                 
AIR AIR MASS PUNCHING IN TONIGHT. INCREASING W FLOW SHOULD JET                  
OFF THE COAST AND WE HAVE ISSUED A SECOND PERIOD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY           
FOR OUR 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS. AS USUAL...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH               
CONDITIONS AT GRAYS REEF FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS TOUCHING ADVISORY                
CRITERIA. OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 2-4 FT WITHING               
20 NM...BUT HIGHER 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEYOND 30              
NM E OF THE GEORGIA COAST.                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH                     
MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND                  
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON                      
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER                
GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED            
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE               
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL MAY                  
RESULT IN A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE              
WATERS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
932 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACROSS CWA ATTM. SNOW FALLING IN WAA REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM. WRN EDGE OF AREA OF PRECIP                  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT... LOOSES MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY               
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SE 2/3 OF CWA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.                 
UPSTREAM TEMPS AND CONTD WAA AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST GOING HIGHS                 
FOR TODAY ARE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AND GENERALLY RAISED ABOUT                 
3F. OTRWS NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE ATTM.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.              
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL                 
AFFECT MAINLY KSBN BUT TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
MAKE IT INTO KFWA.                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
..WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                      
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                      
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
620 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.              
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL                 
AFFECT MAINLY KSBN BUT TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
MAKE IT INTO KFWA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                     
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                           
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE                          
PERIOD...BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.                
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT               
SBN AND FWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MOS AND UPSTREAM OBS. STRONG               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW OFF               
THE SFC AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL                 
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY                                  
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30                  
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR                
BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE FA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                    
DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST FA...WITH IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY EVENING IN A COMBINATION OF BLOWING                  
SNOW AND HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. HAVE TRENDED SBN IN THIS DIRECTION.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR VSBYS WILL BE MOVG OUT                
OF NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTN AS CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA BY THIS EVE AND CONTINUING                   
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT               
SBN DURING THE LAKE EFFECT EPISODE AND MVFR AT FWA.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACROSS CWA ATTM. SNOW FALLING IN WAA REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM. WRN EDGE OF AREA OF PRECIP                  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT... LOOSES MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY               
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SE 2/3 OF CWA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.                 
UPSTREAM TEMPS AND CONTD WAA AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST GOING HIGHS                 
FOR TODAY ARE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AND GENERALLY RAISED ABOUT                 
3F. OTRWS NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE ATTM.                                           
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
.WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                       
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                       
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR INZ003-006>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.              
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ080-          
     081.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-          
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                               
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
442 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BLUSTERY                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP IN ITS WAKE. WOULD                  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR AND                
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AS BANDS MOVE THROUGH.              
THERE IS A CHANCE VSBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO              
INCLUDE EVEN IN A TEMPO GROUP ATTM. TONIGHT...A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW             
FROM LAKE NIPIGON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BECOME STATIONARY            
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SAW...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE             
LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM MN...WITH VSBYS             
REACHING VFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL REACH VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE DRIER AIR AND WINDS BACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SW              
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                       
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1242 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS OF RADAR IMAGERY. ARCTIC/POLAR FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH UPPER              
MI ABOUT AN HOUR TO TWO FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT               
WORKS OUT ALRIGHT AS THE STRONGER WINDS SEEM TO BE LAGGING THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT BY AN HOUR. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE            
AT OUR OFFICE...IN THE CITY OF MARQUETTE AND ELSEWHERE THAT HAVE                
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE              
FRONT. A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO THE                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HAVE BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO            
EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY SNOW BURST ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE              
OF THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE SETTING UP...BUT ARE NOT ALL               
THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO                  
INCREASE UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY RECEIVED A                 
REPORT OF 8 INCHES SO FAR IN IRONWOOD AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.                
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SO THE WARNING FOR THE FAR WEST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY AREA OF            
CONCERN THAT IS NOT PANNING OUT TOO WELL IS THE BLIZZARD WARNING OF             
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BLIZZARD                     
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY AT P59...BUT THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY                 
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL CONVERGENT BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH                
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE             
NOT CONVERGENT AT ALL...AND LIKELY THE ONLY AREA SEEING HEAVIER SNOW            
IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (I.E. DELAWARE AND                    
PHOENIX). WEBCAMS SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE                   
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING...IN CASE SNOW TRIES TO PICK UP A BIT THIS               
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER AIR WILL              
ALSO BE DRIER...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS               
THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND KINL.                   
UPDATED GRID FORECAST AND WINTER STORM STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.              
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ZFP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 AM EST)                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BLUSTERY                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP IN ITS WAKE. WOULD                  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR AND                
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AS BANDS MOVE THROUGH.              
THERE IS A CHANCE VSBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO              
INCLUDE EVEN IN A TEMPO GROUP ATTM. TONIGHT...A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW             
FROM LAKE NIPIGON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BECOME STATIONARY            
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SAW...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE             
LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM MN...WITH VSBYS             
REACHING VFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL REACH VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE DRIER AIR AND WINDS BACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SW              
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                        
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS OF RADAR IMAGERY. ARCTIC/POLAR FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH UPPER              
MI ABOUT AN HOUR TO TWO FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT               
WORKS OUT ALRIGHT AS THE STRONGER WINDS SEEM TO BE LAGGING THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT BY AN HOUR. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE            
AT OUR OFFICE...IN THE CITY OF MARQUETTE AND ELSEWHERE THAT HAVE                
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE              
FRONT. A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO THE                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HAVE BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO            
EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY SNOW BURST ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE              
OF THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE SETTING UP...BUT ARE NOT ALL               
THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO                  
INCREASE UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY RECEIVED A                 
REPORT OF 8 INCHES SO FAR IN IRONWOOD AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.                
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SO THE WARNING FOR THE FAR WEST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY AREA OF            
CONCERN THAT IS NOT PANNING OUT TOO WELL IS THE BLIZZARD WARNING OF             
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BLIZZARD                     
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY AT P59...BUT THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY                 
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL CONVERGENT BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH                
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE             
NOT CONVERGENT AT ALL...AND LIKELY THE ONLY AREA SEEING HEAVIER SNOW            
IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (I.E. DELAWARE AND                    
PHOENIX). WEBCAMS SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE                   
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING...IN CASE SNOW TRIES TO PICK UP A BIT THIS               
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER AIR WILL              
ALSO BE DRIER...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS               
THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND KINL.                   
UPDATED GRID FORECAST AND WINTER STORM STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.              
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ZFP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 AM EST)                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT ON VERGE OF PUSHING THROUGH KEWEENAW. AS THE FRONT                 
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY                         
AFTN...EXPECT PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND BLSN AS WINDS                
SHIFT SHARPLY TO STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN/BLSN WILL                
OCCUR AT BOTH SITES...ALREADY HAPPENING AT CMX...AND DUE INTO SAW               
EARLY THIS AFTN. EVENTUALLY...IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED...BUT                
THIS MAY TAKE A WHILE AS STRONG WINDS/BLSN HANG ON INTO THE EARLY               
EVENING. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX AND TO MVFR AT KSAW                 
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN              
TO DIMINISH...AND WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                        
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi