FXUS04 KWBC 231025
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
525 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 24/1200 UTC THRU FEB 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

WITH THE 06Z MDL RUNS IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE 00Z
RUNS..MADE ONLY VRY MINOR CHGS TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

...DAY1...

...SRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE MID OH VLY...

OTHER THAN THE ETA BEING JUST A LTL SLOER AND FARTHER S WITH THE
SFC LOW TRACK THAN THE GFS SOLN..AT LEAST DURG THE 1ST HALF OF
THE PD..MDLS ARE OTRW IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELD
FCSTS REGARDING THE SYS MOVG THRU THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH
VLY.   PCPN HAS CONTD TO EXPAND DVLP PAST SVRL HRS OR SO IN THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS..JUST AHD OF THE STG MID LVL SYS.   ALTHO THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS SYS TO THE DOWNSTREAM ONE WON'T ALLOW FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MSTR INFLO WITH IT..THE MID LVL SYS
IS NONETHELESS STG ENUF TO MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MSTR IS AVBL
SUCH THAT A STRIPE OF MDT TO HVY SNOWS IS LIKELY ALG AND JUST TO
THE LEFT OF THE VORT TRACK FM SRN KS/NRN OK ENEWD INTO THE MID
OH VLY.   LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THE SLGTLY HVIER ETA QPF
HERE..BUT REALLY EVEN THE MDL QPF DIFFS WEREN'T THAT GREAT.   PLS
SEE QPFHSD AND GRAPHICS 93S AND 94S FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL
POTNL.

...NERN STATES...

THE RATHER STG AND SOMEWHAT NEG TILT MID LVL TROF LIFTING NNEWD
THRU THE NERN STATES STILL HAS PRETTY DECENT LOW LVL WAA 
FEEDING INTO AT LEAST NRN NEW ENG ERY ON..SO THAT SOME MDT PCPN
AMTS..MSTLY SNOW/SLEET..ARE LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN ME. 
MDL QPFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..AND WERE PRETTY MUCH
ACCEPTED.   SOME WRAPARND MSTR WL ALSO SUPPORT A STRIPE OF LGT
TO LCLY MDT PCPN TO THE LEFT OF THE SFC LOW TRACK FM WRN NY
NNEWD INTO NRN VT..WITH MANUAL PROG LEANING A LTL MORE TWDS
THE SLGTLY LESS ETA QPF SOLN.   

...CA...

THE MID/UPR LVL TROF IN THE ERN PAC GETS CLOSE ENUF TO THE NRN
PTNS OF CA LTR IN THIS PD TO PRODUCE SOME GENLY LGT PCPN ..AS LOW
LVL FLO BACKS TO SLY AND BRINGS IN A LTL HIER PW AIR.  
HOWEVER..BTR
MID LVL FORCING AND INFLO OF EVEN HIER PWS WL WAIT TO JUST AFT
THIS PD..SO AGAIN XPC MOST PCPN AMTS TO RMN ON THE LGT SIDE THRU
12Z SUN.

DAY 2...

SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF DIVES INTO CNTRL CA THIS PERIOD. 
MANUAL QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ETA WITH ITS BETTER MODEL
TOPOGRAPHY.  EXPECT A LARGE PORTION OF CNTRL AND SRN CA TO
RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF .50 INCH WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SRN COAST SEEING MORE THAN 1 INCH.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SPREADS EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...FOUR CORNERS...AND CNTRL
ROCKIES.  

SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGINS
TO TAP WEAK GULF INFLOW.  STUCK MORE WITH THE LIGHTER ETA QPF
ACROSS TX/LA/AR.  MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST.

DAY 3...

TROF MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST THIS PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY MDT TO HEAVY PCPN THROUGHOUT THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  SOME PRETTY HEFTY SNOWFALL TOTALS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN UT...NRN AZ...WRN CO.  THIS PROGRESSIVE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM PUSHES DOWNSTREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVES IT OVER A STRENGTHENING SFC BNDRY FROM NERN
TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  EXPECT SOME DECENT RAINFALL
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER SERN OK AND WRN AR. 
LIGHTER AMTS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
REACH INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

TERRY/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 529696 529703 522735 511765 509769 503778 496787 487793
479798 
      470804 453814 449817 449821 452830 456844 459849 462852
464855 
      468856 475862 477872 478875 478879 477883 469900 467905
465907 
      461907 459906 455904 451904 445909 439916 437920 437924
441930 
      443936 443941 437948 434951 436955 438958 440962 441968
440974 
      433989 431994 431001 432008 435011 445027 449035 453043
458063 
      462083 464108 465122 464136 463150 464157 463163 462178
458189 
      453199 451201 448202 446200 445196 444189 446178 446171
446167 
      443162 441160 435152 434144 434137 431133 422131 417124
410122 
      403117 394114 394112 397111 397105 401105 404103 406098
406092 
      403088 401087 397091 395096 393094 390086 387082 383081
379083 
      375083 374079 373076 375072 382070 384068 382065 383061
387059 
      390057 391054 390050 387042 378030 373023 370015 364012
359008 
      349998 345990 342979 339954 338946 334938 328934 324938
314948 
      302962 297967 291968 287967 285960 291946 300924 306909
325874 
      345846 352836 383777 385767 387758 393743 395736 396732
395725 
      394718 393709 393697 393688 395680 397672 400665 405657
410648 
      417639 428624 434616 440607 445601 453594 460590 466587
474587 
      479588 485591 490597 
 0.01 427243 428239 425234 422231 421225 424220 427218 430215
429209 
      427206 423202 416197 415193 416187 418181 420177 421174
419171 
      414170 410168 408166 407163 408160 409157 410151 408148
399146 
      391142 387141 386143 387153 387160 388164 389169 391172
396179 
      398183 397188 379186 372182 368180 363179 359181 359186
365192 
      375202 381209 388214 395218 398220 401223 398224 393223
386216 
      382217 379219 377225 377228 378232 382239 389244 398249
408251 
      413250 420249 427243 
 0.01 263788 261782 257781 254781 250783 245789 240797 236803
233810 
      230817 230823 232825 235826 238826 243822 249816 253811
258802 
      262795 263788 
 0.25 511662 506647 501633 495624 488616 481612 474611 467613
460617 
      451625 443634 437640 432648 428653 425658 420667 412682
410692 
      412699 414704 419710 423715 424722 427744 425753 423762
422774 
      424783 426785 430786 439779 453766 461760 467757 478754
485751 
      494745 500739 506729 510718 512708 513697 514687 513677
511662 
 0.25 401862 399852 396848 394848 389851 384857 382860 376873
367889 
      355900 348906 345912 345917 348929 349934 349943 350952
352966 
      356975 361987 365994 371996 376996 381994 386989 388983
390975 
      390968 389931 395900 395892 397885 399871 401862 
 0.50 479733 486729 492722 497715 501705 503694 503683 502669
497654 
      492645 484638 476638 469644 463649 452649 444648 436654
431661 
      426673 421684 421691 424694 430695 436691 442686 445684
447686 
      449690 450695 449701 449709 452719 453725 453731 454735
457737 
      461737 479733 
 0.50 357938 356953 358968 363979 366984 370986 374985 376981
377975 
      377969 376962 374948 375935 380916 384904 386897 388892
389886 
      390882 387878 384879 381884 379892 374901 370908 366913
362919 
      359925 357938  
 
24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 479834 476812 478796 485784 493772 498759 495742 482722
470712 
      454715 439723 423737 412752 405758 400765 390780 387786
381794 
      370807 371818 366826 364835 359844 355852 351858 342872
332883 
      325899 321906 316913 311919 307924 303926 297928 294929
291933 
      287940 283948 282955 282965 280972 277978 273986 271991
270995 
      272006 277010 284010 292013 299017 306019 310019 315016
321011 
      325012 328015 334023 342034 346040 349043 350047 350054
350062 
      353072 362086 366093 369101 370107 368111 366114 363115
360114 
      357110 351103 346096 343093 339090 335092 333097 333111
333116 
      334132 330141 329151 325153 321154 316158 314161 313167
314174 
      316183 318191 321198 326207 331214 342223 358233 375242
381244 
      387245 397245 412245 416244 419241 423230 426221 427213
427206 
      425195 422184 421176 421162 420153 418142 419131 423117
424106 
      424093 424067 419038 408025 398009 395005 389001 382998
372997 
      366994 360987 356981 353967 357959 361951 366936 369927
370916 
      369903 371893 377876 382859 383855 385854 388855 391856
396856 
      400857 403860 407870 411879 417884 424886 433884 443881
449881 
      452882 462884 465884 471882 475880 477878 479869 480862
480857 
      479844 479834 
 0.25 408799 408796 406793 403794 403794 403794 400796 398800
398800 
      397805 397805 398808 398812 398816 399820 401821 404818
404817 
      406815 406812 407808 407808 408803 408802 408799 
 0.25 375227 389222 399214 403202 400192 400177 404162 406153
404140 
      406133 408125 410119 411110 409095 410089 412082 413076
414071 
      413066 411062 407057 402055 395054 385053 378053 373054
366057 
      365063 368075 370080 374085 378087 383091 386096 387102
386109 
      383113 375121 367128 362132 357133 351133 347134 342138
340142 
      342147 346151 349155 352159 357167 355172 351171 348168
342165 
      337163 332161 325161 322165 322169 323175 325179 331189
336200 
      341209 348215 359222 365225 375227 
 0.25 355892 355888 350888 345896 335909 333915 330924 330933
329941 
      325949 320956 317962 316968 319973 325975 331967 337957
344943 
      348936 350928 353910 355892 
 0.50 396143 396139 393135 387132 382131 376133 374137 375141
378144 
      381148 383151 386153 390153 392151 395147 396143 
 0.50 386205 386197 382191 368184 360184 354185 351183 349179
347174 
      345171 341168 336166 328165 326167 325172 332183 337192
341200 
      352212 364218 367214 373213 382211 386205 
 1.00 337174 336171 333170 331173 332174 335175 337174  
 
24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 421780 418772 414767 411763 405760 393755 388752 382750
379750 
      376752 371756 365762 362769 359782 358797 354810 352822
349827 
      342831 333836 328839 324846 323853 324860 327863 333867
339869 
      340876 339884 335895 330907 325910 318910 310910 302912
295916 
      291920 286931 266949 259957 257961 255967 255972 256978
259987 
      262993 266999 270002 274003 276006 278014 281019 285022
292024 
      298025 306025 312023 317022 321024 322028 323033 320040
318046 
      319052 321056 323059 326067 326071 324075 321082 317085
311088 
      307093 305101 307114 311126 311136 313139 316140 319143
321148 
      317158 317162 316167 318172 321177 328187 335198 341209
348217 
      353222 358224 368227 373231 377233 380233 385231 391225
393221 
      396210 396203 398197 403178 406159 407140 408134 411126
417119 
      420111 419087 419067 417057 415048 412040 406034 404027
403019 
      402011 399004 395000 388998 383993 379988 378982 378976
378966 
      380957 381948 382932 385917 388905 393892 395887 397879
398871 
      399862 400853 402846 407832 412816 417801 421790 421780 
 0.25 386822 386815 385809 381805 376807 371812 369815 366824
363832 
      361840 357860 353879 347897 345904 341913 337919 330927
320938 
      314944 309951 306959 305963 306969 310977 317981 326982
330983 
      334981 339976 345969 349961 352953 357935 360926 362915
363905 
      365897 369877 375860 382842 385833 386822 386822 
 0.25 371154 383151 392143 398129 407117 410108 410096 410082
412070 
      407057 394052 379049 374049 370050 364054 361058 359067
361075 
      362080 361086 351085 335087 331091 328098 324102 320108
321114 
      324121 328127 331132 339143 344147 352150 365154 371154 
 0.25 384208 385206 385200 385195 383191 380188 377187 374186
371186 
      368185 367186 366189 367191 369194 370194 371198 372199
373202 
      374204 376206 377207 379209 382209 384208 
 0.25 346182 346176 346172 344168 342165 339165 333163 329162
327162 
      324165 324170 327173 329176 334180 337183 340184 343185
346182 
 0.25 302959 301956 300955 297955 294956 292957 292958 290961
290962 
      289965 289968 291969 293969 296967 297967 298965 300963
301962 
      302959 
 0.50 404076 404071 401069 395073 391075 387073 381068 377066
373065 
      370066 369072 371079 373084 377085 381083 389080 395084
399085 
      403078 404076 
 0.50 388123 388116 381112 377114 372118 368122 364123 359122
351113 
      346107 343100 339096 335099 333102 330108 330114 337125
341129 
      347132 354134 361137 367140 371141 375142 378141 381138
385133 
      388123 
 0.50 354928 354918 352914 348915 344920 341925 337932 335940
333947 
      332954 333959 334961 340959 345954 348947 351940 353932
354928 
 0.50 336170 335168 333167 331168 333170 334171 336170 
 1.00 342113 340110 337110 337112 337113 340114 342113  
 
$$