AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
831 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING CONSIDERING                       
CRITERIA IS NO LONGER BEING MET OR WILL BE MET ACROSS SOUTHEAST                 
CO PLAINS THIS EVENING.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE                 
LARGE HOT HIGH OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CO WITH A LOW GRADE                    
MOISTURE PLUME FROM AZ INTO WESTERN CO. WILL ANTICIPATE MUCH OF                 
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND DEBRIS CLOUD TO DISSIPATE THIS                 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIKE MANY SUNRISE...MUCH OF THE AREA                     
SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE ONLY TO START THE WHOLE CONVECTIVE                  
PROCESS OVER AGAIN SUNDAY.                                                      
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE                  
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...LOW               
HUMIDITY LEVELS...HIGH HAINES...AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS                  
WILL BE IN PLACE...EXCEPT THE WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL SHORT OF                     
REACHING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO HELD OFF ISSUING ANOTHER FIRE               
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS                  
AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT. METZE                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
             ...STILL HOT BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD...                              
CURRENTLY...100+ DEGREE TEMPS ARE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS I            
WRITE. TEMPS ALL ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY ARE IN THE                      
100S...WITH MANY OTHER AREAS ON THE PLAINS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE              
MOISTURE PLUME DID WORK A BIT EAST TODAY...AND SOME TSRA/SHRA ARE               
OCCURRING N OF A  LINE FROM THE PIKES PEAK REGION SWWD INTO THE LA              
GARITA MTNS.                                                                    
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL NOT MOVE ANY                
FARTHER EAST...LIKEWISE...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP/VIRGA TO               
MAKE IT ONTO THE PLAINS. VIRGA MAY COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE            
EL PASO COUNTY REGION...BUT THIS COOLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT            
MAKE  IT TOO MUCH FARTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. IT WAS QUITE WARM LAST               
NIGHT AS PER THE INTERNAL GFE OBSPLOT DATA. ...AND FOR THIS REASON I            
BUMPED UP MOST OF THE MINS UP A 2-3F. MOST OF THE WARMING WAS ON THE            
IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF THE ALL THE MTN RANGES.                                
TOMORROW...THE MSTR PLUME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A BIT TO THE EAST AS              
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. POPS IN THE               
MTNS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOUT 10% AND HAVE BEGUN THE PRECIP A BIT              
EARLIER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER THAN           
TODAY ALTHOUGH I STILL ANTICIPATE 100S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR                 
VALLEY. WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SVR WX THREAT TOMORROW             
AS THE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TRRN AND THE PRECIP EVAPORATES.               
WITH THE DRY AIR STILL IN THE LLVLS WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME               
DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS PUEBLO...EL PASO AND FREMONT                     
COUNTIES. AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...I BELIEVE THE RED FLAG CONCERNS             
WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TOMORROW...THAT IS WINDS WILL NOT REACH                    
CRITERIA FOR AN EXTENDED PD OF TIME (3H)...AND IT MAY BE A TAD BIT              
MORE MOIST IN THE LLVLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR REACHING RED FLAG                  
CRITERIA WOULD BE OVER FAR SE CO. /34                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE                        
EXTENDED...WITH TREND TOWARDS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND                
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF                
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS SENDING WEAK                
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE SE PLAINS.  TIMING OF THESE S51OW COLD                  
FRONTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST C51ENGE.  MONDAY STILL LOOKS                
FAIRLY HOT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FIRST S51OW FRONT WITH H7               
TEMPS STILL RANGING FROM +17 TO +20C ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL                
YIELD MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S AND 80S FOR              
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH MONSOON PLUME STILL OVERHEAD...ISO TO SCT POPS             
EXPECTED...A FEW OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT                
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATERS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP IN THE                     
WEST...LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY THIS DAY...SO THE MAIN THREAT             
WITH STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING...WITH A FEW FIRE                 
STARTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HOWEVER               
WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER...THIS MAY HELP TO HOLD BACK              
TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.                         
FIRST S51OW FRONT MAKES A PUSH INTO SE CO MON NIGHT...LIKELY AIDED              
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS                  
ACROSS NE CO.  THIS SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY              
AS SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...PRECIP               
WATERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN AREAS BENEATH                  
MONSOON MOISTURE TAP.  THUS...TUES SHOULD SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE               
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.  DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF            
LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...COULD SEE CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG ACROSS             
THE PLAINS. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEARS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE                
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS...THOUGH COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL                
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH WED STILL              
UNDER THE MONSOON PLUME.  TEMPS MAY WARM A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE               
PLAINS AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY INSTEAD OF EASTERLY.              
DEW POINTS DECREASE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS S51OW MOIST LAYER                
MIXES OUT.  THE NEXT FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SE PLAINS WED                      
NIGHT/EARLY THURS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN AND POSSIBLE INCREASE IN               
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURS.                                                
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WENT CLOSER TO CLIMO.  STILL HAVE THE MONSOON               
MOISTURE TAP OVER THE REGION...WITH LONG RANGES MODELS SUGGESTING A             
STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR MAY MAKE IT INTO THE SE PLAINS BY NEXT              
SATURDAY.  AMOUNT OF COOL DOWN WILL BE DEPENDED ON HOW FAR WEST THE             
UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC HIGH DROPS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT                   
LAKES REGION/NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS BOUND TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO               
RUN. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO                
WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SCT TO ISO AFTN POPS. -KT                              
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS...KPUB AND KALS NEXT             
24H. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AT            
KCOS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO VIRGA...WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF                 
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS KCOS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN DUE TO             
VIRGA/TSRA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
318 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                         
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED                   
SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK JETLET EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREEN RIVER TO                   
NORTHWEST OF KCAG. MEANWHILE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN           
COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY               
SHOWED MONSOONAL STREAM HAD MOVED IN OVERNIGHT FUELING THE ACTIVITY             
DISCUSSED ABOVE. KGJT MORNING SOUNDING DATA HAD JUMPED TO NEAR 0.75             
INCHES PW AND DEW POINTS WERE UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.                
THOUGH DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED...LOWER LEVELS STILL RELATIVELY                
DRY. TOO DRY...IN FACT...TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THOUGH STORM MOTION              
SUFFICIENTLY SWIFT TO MINIMIZE RISK OF STRONG DOWNPOURS ANYWAY. UPPER           
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL DECLINE BY SUNSET...SO EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL                 
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF            
NOCTURNAL STORMS OVERNIGHT.                                                     
SLIGHT DRYING INDICATED FOR EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT              
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.                 
SLIGHT SHIFT IN PATTERN INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS MODELS STEER THE                
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING DRYING TO             
THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASED ACTIVITY. SOUTH WILL                   
REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST...THUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.             
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE UNDER THIS PATTERN...THOUGH              
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                   
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE                
FOR THESE PERIODS...EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ALL IMPORTANT           
DETAILS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. BUT THURSDAY +/- 1 DAY HAS BEEN                 
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM             
MOTION OF WEST 5-10MPH THRU THESE PERIODS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL HEAVY              
SHOWERS. WETBULB-ZERO LEVEL IS UP AROUND 16KFT MSL WHICH DOES NOT               
ELIMINATE HAIL POSSIBILITY...BUT MAKES LARGE HAIL UNLIKELY IN THE               
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS              
WILL BE TERRAIN AND STORM DRIVEN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO ISOLATED                   
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EARLY             
EVENING IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN OR SMALL HAIL. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE             
ALSO POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN FORM FIRST OVER THE            
MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER THE VALLEYS BY LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM.....NL                                                               
LONG TERM......JOE                                                              
AVIATION.......JOE                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
344 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH BASED CONVECTION COVERAGE ALONG                
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.                        
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
CENTROID OF LARGE 595DM UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST               
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH             
ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN TIER ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING INCREASED            
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK SW FLOW ACROSS DESERT             
SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH A FEW SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT            
AHEAD OF THE PAC NW TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES ATTM.                                                                   
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SLOWLY DRIFTING THE               
CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                  
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS             
OVERNIGHT...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF            
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MID AND             
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND SOME                  
INCREASED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORT WAVES...SHOULD SEE A                
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS            
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INVERTED V PROFILES WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPES             
AND WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO            
AROUND 40 MPH WITH LITTLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS              
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS. BEST COVERAGE OF WETTING                         
RAINFALL...IF ANY...LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS               
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN .5 AND .75 INCHES. ALL                
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE                 
SETTING OF THE SUN.                                                             
MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE                
I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING...KEEPING BEST GRADIENT AND GUSTY             
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. THE                       
WINDS...ALONG WITH MIN RHS AROUND 10 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS ALL POINT            
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR             
SE PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME                    
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS              
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS...WITH MID 90S TO MID 100S             
ACROSS THE PLAINS. -MW                                                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
ON SUN THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES               
AND A WEAK SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. PW                
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR SUN...RANGING FROM 0.6 OVR THE              
CENTRAL MTS TO OVR AN INCH OVR THE SERN PLAINS. TEMPS SUN WL STILL              
BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ON THE                
SERN PLAINS AND MID 80S TO LOWER 90S OVR THE HIGH VALLEYS.                      
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A                    
PROBLEM MOST AREAS SUN...BUT COULD BE MARGINAL OVR THE FAR SERN                 
PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MIN RH ALSO LOOKS MARGINAL IN THAT AREA...THUS             
WL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR MON               
ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE MORE OVR THE               
ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WL STILL BE VERY WARM...AND                
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVR THE                 
MTS. TUE A SHRTWV TROF MOVE INTO NE AND THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK               
UP OVR THE WRN STATES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT SHRTWV A FRONT                  
MOVES INTO ERN CO...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH                
THE FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO                  
INCREASE A LITTLE MORE AND PCPN CHANCES WL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE                 
HYR. WED THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE FOUR                    
CORNERS REGION...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MSTR FORECAST TO BE OVR THE                
AREA. THE UPR RIDGE WL LIE OVR CO THU AND FRI...WITH PW VALUES A                
BIT LOWER...BUT THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA TO AT                
LEAST SEE SCT POPS OVR THE MTS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR            
THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. STORMS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY GUSTY AND             
ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...               
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED VERY                
WARM CONDITIONS...PRESSURE ALTITUDES AND DENSITY ALTITUDES ISSUES               
WILL BE POSSIBLE. -MW                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR                   
COZ231>237.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/28                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
830 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AN             
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT DURING                 
EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...THIS IS JUST HOW THE SUMMER HAS                         
GONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW                     
STRUGGLING TO FIND A ZONAL PATTERN. CURRENTLY FROM WEST TO EAST WE              
FIND AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA DOWN INTO              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FLOW THEN RIDGES UP AND OVER THE DOMINANT            
RIDGE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. FINALLY WE SEE THE NORTHERN               
STREAM DIVE BACK INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF THE                   
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A WEAKER EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH CAN              
BE ANALYZED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT             
WAS THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT AIDED AN ALREADY WET SOUTHWEST                
FLOW REGIME TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE             
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE THIS PAST MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.                  
AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A WEAK TROUGH                
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL AND THE SUBTROPICAL            
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.                                                             
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTENSITY HAS CERTAINLY DIMINISHED BUT                 
STILL SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA. AN AREA OF LIGHT                
STRATIFORM RAINS LEFT BEHIND FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS AND                     
PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTH OF PANAMA CITY INTO SOUTHWEST AND                  
SOUTH-CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF             
HOURS. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH               
WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED                      
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.                                    
THE FORECAST WILL BECOME COMPLICATED OVERNIGHT AS A PIECE OF                    
MID-LEVEL ENERGY JUST TO OUR WEST SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST              
GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THIS ENERGY                 
RESULTING IN WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OR JUST TO             
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAKES THE POP                 
FORECAST DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SO FOR THE REST OF             
THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT               
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...HOWEVER EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS             
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THESE              
EFFECTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE A                 
WETTER SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST              
AND THEN EXTENDING EAST INTO FRANKLIN AND DIXIE COUNTIES OF THE                 
FLORIDA BIG BEND.                                                               
.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS IN A MID LEVEL DECK WILL PREDOMINATE UNTIL             
08Z AFTER WHICH TIME MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD DEVELOP.                     
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR MVFR AT ABY AND VLD WHERE IT IS THE                   
PREVAILING CONDITIONS...TEMPOS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL START EARLY              
ONCE AGAIN ON SAT...AS EARLY AS 09Z AT PFN AND 13-14Z AT TLH. LOOK              
FOR GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN TS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. IT               
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INSIST ON DEVELOPING LOW              
PRESSURE NEAR AAF SAT MORNING. WE BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE.               
HOWEVER...IF A LOW DOES DEVELOP...WIND SPEEDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL             
BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT TLH AND VLD.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS                 
SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AMPLIFYING THROUGH                  
SATURDAY AND THEN RETREATING ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO               
BUILD BACK IN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW CLOSING OFF ALONG THE            
GULF COAST. THE PREVIOUS RUN CLOSED THE LOW NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND NOW            
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE WITH A DECENT            
VORT IN THE SAME VICINITY BUT DOES NOT CLOSE OFF A LOW. THE GFS                 
WINDS AND CERTAINLY QPF FOR SATURDAY WILL BE DISCOUNTED. EITHER                 
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING CLOSER TO OUR CWA             
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO OUR             
ALABAMA AND MOST GEORGIA ZONES. WILL TAPER POPS LOWER END CHANCE                
NORTH TO LIKELY ACROSS ALL OUR FLORIDA ZONES. ON SUNDAY...OUR FA                
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL             
DRY AIR FILTERING IN OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE                   
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST KEEPING THE              
LOWER LEVELS MOIST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO LINGER OVER OR JUST            
NORTH OF OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE            
BIG BEND.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN            
FL WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SE, WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS (BEST CHANCES                
OVER FL ZONES). BOTH THE GFS/EURO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE               
NERN GOMEX AND SURFACE REFLECTION DRIFTING WWD TUESDAY. THIS WILL               
ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT NWD INTO NRN/CNTRL FL. ALSO...THE              
MODELS INDICATE MID/UPPER RIDGING TO THE NW BUILDING INTO THE SE                
WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL            
BE A LOWERING OF POPS TO BELOW CLIMO AND TEMPS WARMING A FEW DEGREES            
ABOVE CLIMO. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...             
WHILE THE EURO MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES              
AND POPS/TEMPS RETURN TO CLIMO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING              
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT AND ELEVATE WINDS TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO                    
SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BY SATURDAY                    
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY LOW SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY            
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  74 88 74 90 74/ 50 70 40 50 40                                     
PANAMA CITY  76 88 78 90 77/ 50 60 40 40 30                                     
DOTHAN       72 91 74 92 75/ 50 40 30 40 20                                     
ALBANY       73 93 75 92 74/ 30 50 30 40 20                                     
VALDOSTA     73 89 72 88 76/ 40 60 40 50 30                                     
CROSS CITY   74 87 73 88 73/ 40 70 40 40 40                                     
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
LONG TERM...JAMSKI                                                              
SHORT TERM...BARRY                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE                
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH                 
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
SPC HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 796 UNTIL 1 AM FOR              
THE INLAND ZONES FROM ALLENDALE COUNTY UP THROUGH BERKELEY COUNTY.              
WE MAY OPT TO EXPAND THE WATCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST DEPENDING ON              
HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.                             
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ONGOING VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS                 
OF DEPICTING A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION CONTINUES                
ORGANIZE UPSTREAM WHERE UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A                   
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC IS TRAILING SOUTH                     
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE UPSTATE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA.               
THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND                  
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY              
SUNDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE DEGREE OF               
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATTM               
IT APPEARS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM COLLETON COUNTY              
NORTH THROUGH BERKELEY COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED OUR POP...CLOUD AND                 
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO DEPICT ONGOING SHORT TERM TRENDS.                          
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS                  
THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA SAW HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 FOR               
SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN SUNDAY WHERE                 
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. BASED ON HEAT                       
INDEX/DEWPOINT TRENDS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND OUTPUT FROM THE               
18Z MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO INLAND                 
COLLETON COUNTY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                        
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS               
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CREATE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS             
AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA SW THROUGH CHATHAM COUNTY.              
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A HEAT                    
ADVISORY FOR THE NOON-7 PM PERIOD SUNDAY WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES                
COULD REACH IN THE 106-112 DEGREE RANGE. FARTHER S/W...UNCERTAINLY              
ABOUT MORNING CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS...WHICH MAY FALL              
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...PRECLUDES ANY NEW HEAT ADVISORY                     
HEADLINES IN THIS PACKAGE.                                                      
MEANWHILE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK TROUGHING AT THE                  
SURFACE AND ALOFT. DRY/WARM MID LEVEL AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED CAP                
MAY ONCE AGAIN DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION UNTIL WELL              
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS               
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE WITHIN                       
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE/A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP ACROSS SE                        
GA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND               
MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BRIEF PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE                  
RULED OUT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS INLAND AREAS                 
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL               
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND                       
SEABREEZE FORCING.                                                              
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF                       
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE A                    
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. THE              
PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING ALOFT...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL                     
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS                   
EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT HEATING TREND                   
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY                  
NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS                
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...LEADING TO                  
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE                  
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE A HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY               
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES RISE TO 107 TO 110 DEGREES.                      
STRONG UPPER RIDGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM               
DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...DRIVEN BY TYPICAL                
SUMMERTIME INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                
INDICATE PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE                
APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH MID WEEK. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...SLIGHTLY BELOW                  
CLIMATOLOGY.                                                                    
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION                              
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO PRESS SOUTHWARD AND               
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE               
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS LINGER NEAR THE FORECAST             
AREA ON THURSDAY. AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO             
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE            
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE               
COASTLINE.                                                                      
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT DESCENDING TOWARD THE REGION OVER                 
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE                
DETAILS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE AT OR BELOW            
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR                       
VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KSAV AIRPORT DUE TO              
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS IN THAT AREA THAN AT KCHS.                               
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE PUSHING INTO BOTH AIRPORTS SUNDAY             
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL BE PINNED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO STRONG WEST               
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HAVE INTRODUCED CBS AT BOTH TAF                 
SITES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WE EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                 
ACTIVITY TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.                                      
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID              
WEEK WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MVFR HAZE CONDITIONS             
AND OVERNIGHT MVFR MIST AND HAZE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH               
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EACH DAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A COMBINATION OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE                        
ENHANCEMENT AND NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR              
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS                
JUSTIFIES A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. THE                      
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND                      
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS...WHERE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH                      
EARLIER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS...CARRIED THE                  
ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD VEER/DIMINISH EARLIER.               
SEAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE ON NEARSHORE WATERS AND                   
AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.                                                 
EXPECT ANOTHER VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.              
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS...AND ADDITIONAL                  
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME.                                     
THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ON THE                 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED                
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE                   
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX EARLY IN THE                
WEEK. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY              
THURSDAY...AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER                   
LEVEL TROUGHING RESUMES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE                       
NOCTURNAL SURGES BACK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEK AS A                   
RESULT.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ118-119.                
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ043>045-                
     047>051.                                                                   
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ040-                
     042>045-049.                                                               
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-354.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST/REB                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
324 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AS               
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF              
FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN                 
LAKES AND AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM.               
MID AFTERNOON ANALYSIS DEPICTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY SOUTH SIDE              
OF CHICAGO TO NEAR PEORIA...WITH COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL                    
HEATING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STRATUS DECK AND LAKE BREEZE ACROSS               
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO METRO/NORTHWEST INDIANA. WARM/HUMID                   
CONDITIONS IN WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA WITH LOW/MID                 
70S DEW POINT TEMPS AND UPPER 80S AIR TEMPS. SPC/RUC MESOANALYSIS               
DEPICTS MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA AT 19Z...AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE/PORTER                  
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAK...THOUGH GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND SHORT WAVE NOTED IN VAPOR/PROFILER DATA MOVING                  
INTO NORTHERN IL EXPECT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR                      
SCT/ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST ARE AS                
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.                   
FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE              
WESTERN LAKES LATER TONIGHT...WITH COOLER/LESS HUMID AND CLEARING               
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
NICE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES               
TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE                   
AREA. LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMP FORECASTS INDICATE MAX TEMPS TO RANGE                
FROM AROUND 80 NEAR THE LAKE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...TO MID 80S                  
IN INTERIOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS              
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE                
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF WARM/MOIST AIR                 
DEVELOPS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE               
CONTINUING TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED                       
CONVECTION ON NOSE OF 35 KNOT 850 HPA JET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                 
JET AXIS AND ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR              
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z                          
SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHWEST MN...WITH 850-300 MB THICKNESS                  
FIELD AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE                      
ELEMENTS SHOULD HAVE A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION TOWARD                       
NORTHWEST IL. WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL                     
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN                 
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH MODEST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY                   
NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CWA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT               
STRETCHES NORTH/SOUTH ALONG MS VLY WITH BEST LOW LEVEL WAA PUSH                 
INTO WESTERN WI SUNDAY...SETTING UP PERHAPS BETTER CHANCE OF                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL                       
STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN                     
COUNTIES. HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS                
ENTIRE CWA...THOUGH WILL SHADE HIGHEST POPS NORTH/LOWEST SOUTH.                 
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL BE CLOUD/PRECIP                    
DEPENDANT...THOUGH STILL APPEARS SUNDAY WILL SEE WARMEST TEMPS                  
WEST NEAR WARM FRONT...UPPER 80S BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL                     
PROGS...AND STILL A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL                   
FAVOR COOLER TEMPS IN LOW-MID 80S NEAR LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL.                    
WARMEST AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS                 
UPPER RIDGE LEANS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT WAVE                     
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER                
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN LAKES...WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW                  
TRACKING ALONG LOW LEVEL FRONT/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST                    
THERMAL FIELD CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPPER 90S                 
FOR AFTERNOON MAXES MONDAY...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS RETURNING TO THE              
LOW/MID 70S. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE                    
100-110 RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS                
MAY NEED TO GO WITH HEAT WATCH AS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. FOR NOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. OF COURSE IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND               
THAT CLOUDS...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM NORTH OR RING OF FIRE                     
CONVECTION OCCURRING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH MAY ULTIMATELY                      
MODULATE MAX TEMPS THUS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THESE HEAT CRITERIA              
NOT SUPER HIGH...BUT CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WARMEST/MOST               
HUMID WEATHER OF THE YEAR EXISTS MONDAY CWA WIDE.                               
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES                    
TUESDAY WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS                     
INCREASES THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT               
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA                     
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER COULD SEE A SECOND                 
DAY OF MID/UPPER 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES.                                      
MODEL TRENDS THEN CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS                       
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER                 
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                  
ACROSS MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH SERIES                
OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INDICATED ROTATING THROUGH LARGER                
SCALE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PRECIP THREAT WITH THESE VERY                
LOW AT THIS GREAT DISTANCE SO HAVE CHOSEN TO MAINTAIN DRY/COOLER                
CONDITIONS FOR END OF FORECAST PERIOD.                                          
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
627 PM CDT                                                                      
0000 UTC TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING                
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH               
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN INTO                 
SATURDAY. THE LAKE BREEZE MADE IT OUT TO ORD/MDW AND HAS PRETTY                 
MUCH WAVERED ALONG THE TWO STATIONS WITH ORD BEING PREDOMINANTLY                
NW AND MDW BEING MORE EASTERLY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE              
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND                 
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE SOME BR AT RFD/DPA TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT                  
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING AND FAIRLY DRY SOILS IT MAY BE HARD FOR                
THE FOG TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY WITH              
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CU OUT THERE.                 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.                                               
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
108 PM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY                 
MOVE E ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND SETTLE OVER THE                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP WINDS                   
LIGHT...GENERALLY FORCE 1 OR LESS...THRU WEEKEND. BY MONDAY MORNING             
THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH A LOW OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING A GRADUALLY INCREASING RETURN S AND SW             
FLOW.                                                                           
TSTMS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTN...THEN AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY INTO              
MONDAY.                                                                         
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
215 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
350 PM CDT                                                                      
SHORT TERM...SEVERE MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST                    
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT CWA NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                  
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS MCV CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN                    
WI...WITH RAIN COOLED/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING BEHIND                    
CURRENT ACTIVITY INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THUS HAVE CANCELED WESTERN                
PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 782. CURRENT ACTIVITY                     
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRESENT THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE                       
CONVECTIVE WINDS...AS STORMS PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG/SOUTH OF                 
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN REGION OF RUC INDICATED MLCAPE AXIS OF                  
1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES DECREASE FARTHER TO THE EAST              
SO SEVERE/ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE SPORADIC.                    
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO BE CLEARED AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...                    
ALONG I55 AT 325 PM...MOVES OUT.                                                
WITH LOW LEVEL STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MCS AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE                
OF MCV EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY/QUITE PERIOD THIS EVENING. VARIOUS                 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TOO WELL...              
THOUGH APPEARS PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH              
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH IS               
CURRENTLY ACROSS IA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES FRIDAY                
AS SURFACE LOW/FRONT SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA.                      
MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS WESTERN LAKES DURING                
THE DAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL                     
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT               
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA. WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OF AREA              
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY INTO WESTERN LAKES EXPECT DRY WEATHER...COOLER AND LESS                  
HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.                             
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAT WHICH LOOKS TO BUILD IN VERY LATE IN THE              
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE                   
BUILDS INTO UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES. BEST WARM ADVECTION                    
REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY SUGGESTING                       
WEST/EAST GRADIENT IN TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMING INTO THE LOWER                
90S ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I39...AND INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90                   
EAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES...LIGHT GRADIENT                 
WINDS AND SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE                           
BREEZE/MODERATION ALONG ILLINOIS SHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME                   
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH RETURNING WARM FRONT AND                 
LOW LEVEL JET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY FAR WESTERN                    
COUNTIES...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE                 
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL INCLUDE JUST A                    
SLIGHT CHANCE/20 POP FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
APPEARS THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SHOWS UP MONDAY AS RIDGE              
BUILDS OVERHEAD. GFS INDICATING 850 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING 26 DEG C              
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GFS TEMP GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPS IN                
MID/UPPER 90S ESPECIALLY OVER WEST/SOUTH CWA. SURFACE DEW POINT                 
TEMPS IN LOW/MID 70S SUPPORT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN                     
105-110 RANGE SO HEAT HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE               
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EVEN DRAWS CLOSER. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS               
HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH THERMAL RIDGE                       
SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND              
PRECIP ACROSS CWA. CANADIAN/GEM ALSO INDICATING SHORT WAVE                      
FLATTENING RIDGE OVER CWA SIMILAR TO ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN               
IDEA OF GOING FORECAST WITH MID 90S MONDAY...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO                
MONITOR.                                                                        
GUIDANCE THEN IN AGREEMENT FLATTENING OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS GREAT               
LAKES AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS              
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES...AND IN SAGGING COLD FRONT SOUTH                  
ACROSS FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST NORTHERN                
COUNTIES MAY NOT BE AS WARM TUESDAY...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES               
REMAIN IN HEAT. OF COURSE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY BE MODULATED BY                 
CLOUDS/PRECIP POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED                  
WITH SAGGING FRONT/LAKE BREEZE. FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP INTO                    
CENTRAL IL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES                        
AND COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.                       
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
140 AM CDT                                                                      
06Z TAFORS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAD DRIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TO E                   
CENTRAL WI OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS LIFTING THE BOUNDARY THAT LAID               
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL INTO NW IN THU EVENING NORTHWARD. SURFACE                
FLOW...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS...HAS BACKED TO SW OR S AND WITH 925MB              
WINDS PER VAD AND PROFILER DISPLAYS ALSO SHOWING BACKING TO W AND               
SW ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE BEEN               
PERSISTING IN EAST CENTRAL IA WHERE MAX INSTABILITY LOCATED WITH                
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND WHERE                
WEAK CONVERGENCE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A NE- SW COOL FRONT ACROSS IA               
AS WELL AS UVV AS A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS SE ACROSS IA.                         
GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE COOL FRONT DROPS                 
INTO NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL                     
UVV...FEEL THAT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED OR               
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT A TERMINAL               
SO HAVE MAINTAINED IDEA OF VCTS.                                                
BY 18Z THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE IN S CENTRAL LOWER MI                 
WITH THE COOL FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS N CENTRAL IN TO W CENTRAL               
IL WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING AS HI PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE                     
NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                  
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
215 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY                 
MOVE E ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT                   
LAKES SAT AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ON                
LAKE MI. BY MON MORNING THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY                 
WITH A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING A GRADUALLY INCREASING               
RETURN S AND SW FLOW.                                                           
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2008                                               
RUC MODEL-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 00Z LINCOLN SOUNDING DATA                
SHOW A CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS                       
EVENING...AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH               
SURFACE COOLING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE              
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE               
WAKE OF THE EARLIER NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT IS NOW            
DECAYING OVER INDIANA. ALL OF THIS BODES POORLY FOR THE PROSPECTS OF            
NEW CONVECTIVE GENERATION OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.                   
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST/WEST ACROSS                    
NORTHERN IOWA HAS SHOWN SOME RECENT ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT                
WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND THE CAP IS WEAKER.              
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE                    
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS                    
APPROACHES THE AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW WELL THE                
RESULTANT MCS WOULD SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE             
HOSTILE...OR INDEED IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP AT ALL. AT THIS TIME IT IS            
REASONABLE THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND                 
POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEFORE DAWN. WILL                   
THEREFORE KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH GOING AS IS. NO FORECAST            
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.                                           
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                               
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DVLP OVER NERN IA ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF AHD            
OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENT WI INTO NWRN IA. STORM MOTION            
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL BRUSH PIA/BMI BEFORE DAWN... SO            
WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR THUNDER THERE 09Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE                
BELOW TEMPO CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN SPI/DEC/CMI...TSTMS MAY BE                
ADDED IF STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER SW OVER SERN IA. VSBYS ARE BEGINNING            
TO DROP THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG THRU            
SUNRISE. COLD FRONT ON SCHEDULE TO REACH PIA AROUND 21Z FRI AND LIE             
ALG UIN-DNV CORRIDOR BY 00Z SAT. AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY                   
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LESS INHIBITION THAN WAS OBSERVED              
THU AFTN. WILL THEREFORE PUT TEMPOS IN THE TAFS FOR TSTMS BEGINNING             
A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE FROPA...THEN HAVE JUST SCT STRATOCU BEHIND THE            
FRONT.                                                                          
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 254 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2008                                               
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MIDWEST                   
THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALIVE...MAINLY             
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION.                                            
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER                      
MINNESOTA...WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/SE              
INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. ALOFT...RIDGE IS BUILDING               
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE W/NW FLOW                
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
MCS THAT DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO              
PROPAGATE E/SE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND              
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD THE CHICAGO               
AREA. PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE                
BOUNDARY...WHERE LAPS CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG ARE COMMON.             
THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG AND RESULTING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER...                
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE. BASED ON            
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK                
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST N/NE OF THE KILX CWA LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY COMPLEX...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDELY                
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION QUITE POORLY OVER THE            
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO ALL SOLUTIONS ARE SUSPECT FOR TONIGHT INTO               
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS               
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND W/NW FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT...THINK                    
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR             
PATH TO CURRENT CONVECTION. WILL THEREFORE KEEP FORECAST DRY ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL INTRODUCE 30                
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS             
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO DRAG A               
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...              
WITH THE NAM-WRF SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG AND               
LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -7 AND -9C. CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MODEST AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL             
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE               
MITIGATING FACTORS...HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF                 
BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                
WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-74 IN CLOSER                   
PROXIMITY TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY OVERNIGHT                      
CONVECTION...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR            
S/SW CWA.                                                                       
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN           
END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS              
HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH LIGHT N/NE SURFACE FLOW...HAVE LOWERED HIGH              
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. SLIGHT                  
COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO                 
BUILD EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO                
THE LOWER 90S.                                                                  
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS STILL ON TAP FOR EARLY                
NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. 850MB             
TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 24 TO 26C RANGE ON MONDAY AND TUE...RESULTING              
IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. AT THE SAME TIME...                   
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100             
DEGREES...WHICH MEETS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS               
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH            
FROM THE NORTH. ECMWF IS BRINGING THE FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUE...             
WHILE GFS KEEPS IT TO THE NORTH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MODELS OFTEN BREAK             
DOWN UPPER PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY...SO PREFER THE SLOWER GFS HERE.                
WILL THEREFORE KEEP FORECAST DRY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL INTRODUCE                
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY SETTLES                  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS               
HUMID WEATHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                          
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
950 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PER MORNING DATA...FOG IS NOW CONFINED TO AROUND KDBQ. 0-30MB AGL RH            
FROM THE RUC APPEARS TO HANDLE THE LOW CLOUDS THE BEST. CLOUDS TO               
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.             
...08...                                                                        
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/                                                           
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GRIDS WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO MENTION FOG AND LOWER POPS TO ONLY 20              
PERCENT. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST IL TO NORTHWEST MO             
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. SEVERAL              
LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1/4 MILE IN DENSE FOG BUT WAS NOT                  
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. SPS WAS ISSUED INSTEAD. EXPECT               
IMPROVING CONDITIONS RAPIDLY BY 10 AM.                                          
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS IN FG/BR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z AND               
THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                                         
..HAASE..                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
246 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FIRE WX IN THE WEST AND HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST                    
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.                                      
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL                  
CONUS, WITH 500MB HEIGHTS ABOVE 5900 M AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.               
AT THE SFC, A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT DOWN INTO EASTERN              
CO/WESTERN KS. SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THIS TROUGH HAVE HELPED TO                  
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE WEST, WITH READINGS NOW IN THE                  
UPPER 50S AT EHA AND LBL. THE RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN KS, WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING IN THE 70S.                           
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOT MUCH CHANGING IN THE               
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL                
SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD, AND THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE A BIT                
FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A BIG QUESTION WILL BE              
WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS WITH THE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH                   
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY MOIST READINGS IN THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY               
MORNING, BUT BRING SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S BACK OUT INTO                
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE                
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS, AND IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES                 
WILL AGAIN GET DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH.                 
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO               
BRING MOISTURE UP INTO THE HIGH PLAIN ON SUNDAY, AND THIS TIME THE              
MODELS KEEP DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 50 ALL THE WAY TO THE CO BORDER. OF               
COURSE, MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE NOTORIOUSLY UNRELIABLE, BUT WILL ELECT              
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR NOW AND NOT GO WITH ANY WATCH.                     
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES,                 
WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH TODAY AND INTO                    
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT, AND THINK                  
THAT EVEN HYS AND P28 SHOULD GET ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TODAY.                  
TOMORROW WILL BE EVEN HOTTER ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS 850MB TEMPS.              
WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICIES SHOULD GET AROUND                 
AND ABOVE 105 ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE                   
ADVISORY WE HAVE GOING TODAY, AND WILL EXTEND IT INTO SUNDAY AS                 
THE HEAT CONTINUES.                                                             
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE TIMING            
OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN.               
LOOK FOR THE WARM RIDGE TO FINALLY BREAKDOWN ON TUESDAY AND                     
WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT             
SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DODGE            
CITY BY AROUND 7 PM TUESDAY WHILE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE             
IT A BIT FASTER AND THROUGH DODGE BY AROUND NOON. WILL HEDGE TOWARD             
FASTER ECMWF AND PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE NORTH CWA BY AFTERNOON.                
WILL ALSO ADD A SMALL POP NORTH AND THIS IS WHAT ICT HAD SUGGESTED.             
THE GFS THEN CONTINUES WITH RAIN FROM .01 TO .3 MAINLY NORTH AND                
EAST INTO THURSDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL POPS TO COVER.              
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE AGAIN FROM 100 TO 105,               
THEN INTO THE LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY COOLER               
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE WITH                 
UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                                   
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 15             
TO 25 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC 105  72 104  72 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK 105  71 104  69 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA 104  69 101  69 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL 105  71 104  69 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS 103  72 105  73 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28 102  73 104  74 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ031-046-                
065-066-079>081-089-090.                                                        
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM                
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-                     
084>086.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/06/06                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
THE ONLY CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL AT THE CHANUTE TAF              
SITE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS STILL DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE              
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THAT REGION WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING.            
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING THAT THE                    
MOISTURE DEPTH WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME                
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 09Z OR SO.                   
AFTER 13Z...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WITH LIGHT               
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF               
FORECAST.                                                                       
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN MAINLY IN            
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                                               
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE                
LOWER TO MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT 02Z. THIS             
COMBINED WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING COULD CAUSE DENSE FOG              
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY MODEL THAT              
SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS THE              
RUC WHICH SATURATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST             
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAVORABLE            
DEWPOINT PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN ON BEEFING UP THE FOG                 
POTENTIAL AND MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP               
GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION.                    
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
00Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR FOG POTENTIAL IN THE                     
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TAF SITES. MVFR                  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KICT AND KHUT STARTING NEAR 1000Z AND BREAKING       
AFTER SUNRISE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCNU BEGINNING NEAR               
0900Z AND AGAIN BREAKING AFTER SUNRISE.                                         
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF                           
PERIOD...HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR 2100Z FRIDAY                 
KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM THE                     
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO                   
CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE THE TROUGH WASHES OUT AND THE WINDS RETURN                
TO SOUTHEASTERLY.                                                               
BILLINGS                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CENTERS ON THE UPCOMING HOT STRETCH OF                
WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
TONIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                                
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED                 
AGAIN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A FULL AFTERNOON OF SUNSHINE/DRYING                  
HOWEVER...AND ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT COMPARED             
TO LAST NIGHT. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FLINT                   
HILLS/SERN KS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE                
PAST 36 TO 42 HOURS.                                                            
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH             
WARMING LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH THE              
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN                         
ROCKIES-SOUTHERN PLAINS-TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF              
NEXT WEEK...LOW-MID LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS              
OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                 
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP              
FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS             
HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND              
GIVEN FAIRLY RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WOULD ANTICIPATE IT MAY               
TAKE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREE HEAT TO              
MIX THEM DOWN LOWER. THEREFORE PLANNING A HEAT ADVISORY AREAWIDE                
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE TIME BEING AND CONTINUE TO                   
EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER HEADLINES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK               
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. FRIDAY MAY BE MARGINAL IF WE DO NOT REACH                
ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO CONTINUED EVAPORATION FROM THE SOIL.       
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:                                                             
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES LOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL                
TRENDS TO KEEP BACKING OFF ON PUSHING A COLD FRONT SWD FROM THE                 
NRN PLAINS INTO KANSAS. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF              
OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE 00Z RUN WAS BRINGING IT                 
WELL INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS WITH NCEP AND SURROUNDING                
OFFICES WAS TO LOWER HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S...HOWEVER                
THESE UPPER RIDGES CAN BE VERY TENACIOUS THIS TIME OF YEAR SO                   
THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.                                                        
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    71  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      71 100  73 101 /   0   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          71  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        71  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         69 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      69 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0                                
SALINA          71 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       71 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     71  96  73  98 /   0  10   0   0                                
CHANUTE         71  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0                                
IOLA            71  95  73  98 /   0   0   0  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    71  96  73  98 /   0  10   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-               
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
112 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...ISSUED AN EXCESIVE HEAT WARNING FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST                
TEXAS AND ALL OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY REACHING 109 IN ALEXANDRIA              
AND 108 IN JASPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVER THE                 
NEXT FEW HOURS TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDICES FROM SOARING TO AROUND 112              
DEGREES. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                         
UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING AT LCH WAS MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE                    
THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. CONSIDERING THIS INITIALIZATIONN AND GFS               
THETA RIDGING AT H8, WILL GO AHEAD AND UP THE ANTE ON POPS TO 30                
PERCENT FOR ALL EXCEPT EASTERN PORTIONS OF CEN LA WHERE RUC SHOWS               
GOOD NVA. CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 91 SHOULD BE REACHED BY 18Z (1PM).             
WILL MAKE THAT THE INITIAL TIME FOR THE SCATTERED POPS. LEFT TEMPS              
ALONE AND CONCUR ON THE MIXING. THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR             
THE AEX AREA FOR A HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 108 THIS AFTERNOON.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL                   
DAYS RANGING FROM HEAT WAVE COURTESY OF MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING                
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ROTATING                
AROUND IT...AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL TROUBLES SLIDING UNDERNEATH IT               
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                                                        
FIRST...THE HEAT. UPPER RIDGE/INCREASING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS TOPPED OUT AT              
100 OVER NORTHERN ZONES YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER                 
2 TO 3 DAYS OF READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR THE TEXAS                   
LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. READINGS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN              
LOUISIANA WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FOLLOWED SAME                   
GENERAL IDEA SPELLED OUT IN DISCUSSION YESTERDAY MORNING TO ARRIVE              
AT EXACT NUMBERS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED HOISTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR              
PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT MY CONCERN IS THAT SFC DEWPOINTS WILL MIX               
OUT SUFFICIENTLY AS TO PRECLUDE CRITERIA BEING REACHED. DEWPOINTS               
WERE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE                
AREAS THAT REACHED THE CENTURY MARK...AND THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT          
OCCURRED DURING THE LAST MINI HEAT WAVE ABOUT A WEEK AGO. WITH                  
THIS IN MIND...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND ADDRESS                  
THE HEAT IN THE HWO.                                                            
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL MOSTLY BE TIED TO IMPULSES RIDING                   
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA LIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS SHOW A               
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THIS REGARD...THOUGH MOST ARE                      
DECENT IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WOULD BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY                   
COURTESY ONE OF THESE IMPULSES. THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WILL                  
HAVE PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR GREATER...WHICH IS MORE                
THAN ENOUGH. CARRIED SLIGHT POPS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                          
CONCERNING THE TROPICS...THERE IS ALMOST UNANIMOUS SUPPORT NOW FOR              
SOMETHING DEVELOPING OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH              
CENTRAL GULF...THEN MOVING WWD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HOW MUCH...IF              
ANY...SFC REFLECTION THERE IS IS UP FOR DEBATE. THE NAM IS BY FAR               
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A 40-50KT TS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND              
INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THIS SOLUTION WAS DEEMED EXTREME AND              
THE NAM WAS IGNORED FOR GRID PURPOSES. THE CANADIAN GEM WAS ON THE              
OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM...SHOWING ALMOST NO SFC REFLECTION.                
THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE               
FORECAST...FELT IT BEST TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND                           
ECMWF...WHICH YIELDED A CLOSED LOW WITH 20KT WINDS. THE UPPER                   
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST                  
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE                
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SMALL AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CUBA                
MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF. WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.            
IN ANY EVENT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON THIS AREA WOULD BE FELT                  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE             
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS ONE DOES NOT               
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AND/OR HOT AS THE CURRENT ONE...SO TEMPS NEAR              
OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO LOOK FINE AS DO SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.                        
AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST                
OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL                 
GULF WITH A SUBSEQUENT WESTWARD MOTION MAY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS               
AND SEAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LAST THROUGH AT                 
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. REFER TO DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE                 
DETAILS. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST              
FORECASTS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  95  77  97  77  94 /  30  10  20  20  20                                  
KBPT  96  77  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  20  20                                  
KAEX 101  79  97  77  98 /  20  20  20  20  10                                  
KLFT  95  78  95  77  92 /  30  20  20  20  20                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE               
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...                         
     EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.                                
TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE               
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER.                         
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1013 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING AT LCH WAS MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE                   
THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. CONSIDERING THIS INITIALIZATIONN AND GFS               
THETA RIDGING AT H8, WILL GO AHEAD AND UP THE ANTE ON POPS TO 30                
PERCENT FOR ALL EXCEPT EASTERN PORTIONS OF CEN LA WHERE RUC SHOWS               
GOOD NVA. CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 91 SHOULD BE REACHED BY 18Z (1PM).             
WILL MAKE THAT THE INITIAL TIME FOR THE SCATTERED POPS. LEFT TEMPS              
ALONE AND CONCUR ON THE MIXING. THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR             
THE AEX AREA FOR A HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 108 THIS AFTERNOON.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL                   
DAYS RANGING FROM HEAT WAVE COURTESY OF MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING                
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ROTATING                
AROUND IT...AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL TROUBLES SLIDING UNDERNEATH IT               
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                                                        
FIRST...THE HEAT. UPPER RIDGE/INCREASING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS TOPPED OUT AT              
100 OVER NORTHERN ZONES YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER                 
2 TO 3 DAYS OF READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR THE TEXAS                   
LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. READINGS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN              
LOUISIANA WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FOLLOWED SAME                   
GENERAL IDEA SPELLED OUT IN DISCUSSION YESTERDAY MORNING TO ARRIVE              
AT EXACT NUMBERS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED HOISTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR              
PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT MY CONCERN IS THAT SFC DEWPOINTS WILL MIX               
OUT SUFFICIENTLY AS TO PRECLUDE CRITERIA BEING REACHED. DEWPOINTS               
WERE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE                
AREAS THAT REACHED THE CENTURY MARK...AND THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT          
OCCURRED DURING THE LAST MINI HEAT WAVE ABOUT A WEEK AGO. WITH                  
THIS IN MIND...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND ADDRESS                  
THE HEAT IN THE HWO.                                                            
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL MOSTLY BE TIED TO IMPULSES RIDING                   
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA LIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS SHOW A               
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THIS REGARD...THOUGH MOST ARE                      
DECENT IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WOULD BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY                   
COURTESY ONE OF THESE IMPULSES. THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WILL                  
HAVE PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR GREATER...WHICH IS MORE                
THAN ENOUGH. CARRIED SLIGHT POPS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                          
CONCERNING THE TROPICS...THERE IS ALMOST UNANIMOUS SUPPORT NOW FOR              
SOMETHING DEVELOPING OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH              
CENTRAL GULF...THEN MOVING WWD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HOW MUCH...IF              
ANY...SFC REFLECTION THERE IS IS UP FOR DEBATE. THE NAM IS BY FAR               
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A 40-50KT TS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND              
INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THIS SOLUTION WAS DEEMED EXTREME AND              
THE NAM WAS IGNORED FOR GRID PURPOSES. THE CANADIAN GEM WAS ON THE              
OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM...SHOWING ALMOST NO SFC REFLECTION.                
THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE               
FORECAST...FELT IT BEST TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND                           
ECMWF...WHICH YIELDED A CLOSED LOW WITH 20KT WINDS. THE UPPER                   
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST                  
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE                
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SMALL AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CUBA                
MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF. WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.            
IN ANY EVENT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON THIS AREA WOULD BE FELT                  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE             
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS ONE DOES NOT               
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AND/OR HOT AS THE CURRENT ONE...SO TEMPS NEAR              
OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO LOOK FINE AS DO SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.                        
AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST                
OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL                 
GULF WITH A SUBSEQUENT WESTWARD MOTION MAY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS               
AND SEAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LAST THROUGH AT                 
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. REFER TO DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE                 
DETAILS. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST              
FORECASTS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  95  77  96  77  95 /  30  10  20  20  20                                  
KBPT  96  76  97  76  97 /  30  10  20  20  20                                  
KAEX 101  75 102  75 101 /  20  20  20  20  10                                  
KLFT  95  78  96  78  95 /  30  20  20  20  20                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1057 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING              
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SOME                      
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT                 
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FIRST ROUND OF TSRA HAS EXITED THE AREA BUT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS                  
VERY MOIST AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE                   
LATER TODAY INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA                  
THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS ARE ALREADY THINING OUT MEANING                  
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS FOR ADEQUATE                                   
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FOR POTENTIAL SVR STORMS LATER THIS                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WRF MODELS AND RUC40 INDICATE THAT AREAS ALONG I-95 STAND                
THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING SVR WX. TIMING LOOKS TO BE                     
BETWEEN 3PM AND 8PM. WOULD ANTICIPATE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH LATER TODAY.       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...                          
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY                     
EVENING...TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE                  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95                
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NOT A LOT OF DRYING OR INCREASED                
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR FOG LATE                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER                    
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW                              
ENGLAND...BRINGING NOTABLE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT            
WEEK. ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER MID WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED             
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF                       
CONVECTION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE                
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TRY             
TO PIN DOWN TIMING WITH MORNING ACTIVITY AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST.               
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH             
NOON AND MOVE EAST. THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METRO TERMINALS                
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING THE STRONGEST STORMS BETWEEN NOON             
AND 5PM. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO 12Z TAFS WILL MOST LIKELY                
MAINTAIN THE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND EAST OF THE             
AREA THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE                 
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY AND            
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                      
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD                     
FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CHANNELING UP THE BAY AND PORTIONS OF                 
THE POTOMAC THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONGOING                       
CONVECTION COULD DISRUPT THAT FLOW. EITHER WAY...WIND GUSTS TO 20               
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL                  
RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS               
MOVING OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE                  
WARNINGS.                                                                       
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS            
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  THIS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO            
BE POSTED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROSA                                                                   
PRODUCTS...SAR/SMZ                                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1046 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER COLD              
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE             
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER             
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH             
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HOT DAY ON TAP WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AROUND -6C AND H85                
TEMPS WARMING UP TO 19C BY DAYS END. A LIGHT NW DOWNSLOPE SHOULD                
ALSO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S. AS FOR CONVECTION...ONLY A                   
BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY DAYS END AND PERHAPS TRIGGER                
AN ISOLD TSRA ALG THE BAY BUT CVRG SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20%. BEST                
CHANCE OF ANYTHING POPPING UP IS OVR THE MTNS WHERE SOME CU                     
ALREADY EVIDENT BUT EVEN HERE CVRG SHOULD ALSO BE SPARSE DUE TO                 
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM                 
OVER OH/IN TO SEE IF IT CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. OPTED TO ADD A               
SLIGHT CHANCE W OF THE BLUE RIDGE BASED ON 12Z RUC40 BUT                        
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT ALL THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP. BETTER                
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS LATE TONIGHT AS POTENT UPPER                       
DISTURBANCE DROPS SWD AND AN MCS LIKELY TO ROLL THROUGH THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...                        
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT                  
ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS TO APPROACH OUR                
CWA. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE            
FACTORS THAT LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. THE DYNAMICS                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A JET MAX             
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS                  
MUCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE TO            
LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DID SLOW DOWN TIMING A BIT MAINLY              
TO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWN FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE                  
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. DESPITE THE                  
FORCING AND INSTABILITY...STILL FEEL THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM             
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS PER COORDINATION WITH HPC.                        
THEREFORE...TRENDED POPS CLOSER TO OTHER GUIDANCE. IF ENOUGH                    
INSTABILITY DOES EXIST...THEN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY              
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.                                          
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO             
THE MID 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN MCS DROPPING SE IN THE FLOW LATE                
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE                  
MODELS HAVE DROPPED THE MCS FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE SLOWED IT DOWN A             
BIT. SO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF                 
SATURDAY TO TRY AND BEST CAPTURE THIS FEATURE. LINGERING CLOUD COVER            
FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY HELP STABILIZE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN THE               
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA LATER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW                
PRESSURE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE              
SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE                 
EAST. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS A BIT IN THE                    
AFTERNOON ALSO.                                                                 
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET. HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF              
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE NOTED IN THE NW               
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THESE IMPULSES COULD             
AID THE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING             
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE CHANCES ARE SO LOW AT THIS TIME...HAVE               
GONE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.                    
BY THE MID/LATE WEEK...A FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OVER THE MID              
ATLANTIC. BY WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEARING THE PA/MD                 
BORDER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY. CHANCE             
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...AND STILL LOOK GOOD.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT             
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HIGH. THEREFORE...PATCHY BR IS                 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAVORED TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCHO. FEEL THAT              
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A LIGHT GRADIENT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD             
FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING             
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT             
COLD FRONT.                                                                     
SUB VFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. IN THE MORNING...THE             
REMNANTS OF AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.              
IN THE AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH              
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE             
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY TURN                
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE            
CHESAPEAKE BAY.                                                                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD              
FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE                
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BEHIND A LOW                    
PRESSURE TROUGH. LOCAL MODEL RUNS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SO HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT             
ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER FLAGS ARE                 
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.            
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT                
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ530>537.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROSA                                                                   
PRODUCTS...LASORSA/LISTEMAA                                                     
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT)                                             
WATER IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO                    
WITH A DEEP TROUGH AND AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC              
STATES...A RIDGING OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO... AND MORE               
TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST. SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE BLANKETING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                 
VALLEY...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LOWS ARE OVER                  
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT              
STRETCHED BETWEEN THEM. ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC             
STATES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SUN ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT)                           
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AS            
THE QUEBEC LOW STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. THE SASKATCHEWAN             
LOW WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST ALSO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING THROUGH              
THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAKE TONIGHT. THE                 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND AND                        
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT               
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                         
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SHIFT                
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING            
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN U.P. SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE              
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE SURFACE                 
TROUGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP                   
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH              
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY LATE              
IN THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY                
FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS LOOKING FOR               
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.                                          
.LONG TERM... (SUNDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY)                                      
SUN NIGHT...THE WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA/TSRA TOWARD               
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT A                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BAND OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED              
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS              
IS OFTEN THE CASE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WOULD MORE LIKELY DEVELOP            
IN THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND 925-850 MB CONV AND MOVE INTO            
WI (PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM)...REDUCING MOISTURE INFLOW AND PCPN               
CHANCES OVER UPPER MI. SO...CURRENT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.            
850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 15C AND MUCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND                
1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW                   
STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF...WITH THREAT              
OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.                                             
MON...AFTER ANY MORNING SHRA/TSRA DIMINISH...A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT IS             
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH UPPER MI...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA.            
ALTHOUGH SBCAPE VALUES MAY CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE WITH SFC              
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED SINCE               
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.            
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH             
THE AREA WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA              
CHANCES GOING.                                                                  
WED-SAT...MODELS REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN             
EVOLUTION TOWARD A TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. THE RESULTING NW FLOW                 
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...500 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C...AND A               
SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA...SUPPORT               
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN             
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE             
INCLUDED. THE OP GFS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z RUN...WAS THE MOST                    
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES THU               
INTO FRI. THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WHICH STILL CARVES            
OUT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLOW NORMAL            
AND MAY BE LOWERED FURTHER IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER IN A PERIOD             
OF ENHANCED LOW/MID MOISTURE AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING E ACROSS THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU THIS FCST             
PERIOD AT KCMX/KSAW.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
AND THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS            
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MN...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STILL              
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON             
INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY             
CREEP UP TO 20 KT ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH              
IS EXPECTED TO DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. WEST            
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...              
WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO                    
WITH A DEEP TROUGH AND AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC              
STATES...A RIDGING OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO... AND MORE               
TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST. SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE BLANKETING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                 
VALLEY...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LOWS ARE OVER                  
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT              
STRETCHED BETWEEN THEM. ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC             
STATES.                                                                         
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AS            
THE QUEBEC LOW STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. THE SASKATCHEWAN             
LOW WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST ALSO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING THROUGH              
THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAKE TONIGHT. THE                 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND AND                        
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT               
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                         
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SHIFT                
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING            
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN U.P. SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE              
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE SURFACE                 
TROUGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP                   
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH              
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY LATE              
IN THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY                
FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS LOOKING FOR               
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY)                                       
SUN NIGHT...THE WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA/TSRA TOWARD               
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT A                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BAND OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED              
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS              
IS OFTEN THE CASE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WOULD MORE LIKELY DEVELOP            
IN THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND 925-850 MB CONV AND MOVE INTO            
WI (PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM)...REDUCING MOISTURE INFLOW AND PCPN               
CHANCES OVER UPPER MI. SO...CURRENT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.            
850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 15C AND MUCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND                
1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW                   
STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF...WITH THREAT              
OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.                                             
MON...AFTER ANY MORNING SHRA/TSRA DIMINISH...A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT IS             
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH UPPER MI...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA.            
ALTHOUGH SBCAPE VALUES MAY CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE WITH SFC              
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED SINCE               
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.            
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH             
THE AREA WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA              
CHANCES GOING.                                                                  
WED-SAT...MODELS REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN             
EVOLUTION TOWARD A TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. THE RESULTING NW FLOW                 
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...500 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C...AND A               
SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA...SUPPORT               
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN             
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE             
INCLUDED. THE OP GFS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z RUN...WAS THE MOST                    
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES THU               
INTO FRI. THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WHICH STILL CARVES            
OUT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLOW NORMAL            
AND MAY BE LOWERED FURTHER IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER IN A PERIOD             
OF ENHANCED LOW/MID MOISTURE AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY CONDITION AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN THROUGH            
TONIGHT...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS WILL                  
BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS THE                
RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE EAST.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
AND THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS            
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MN...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STILL              
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON             
INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY             
CREEP UP TO 20 KT ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH              
IS EXPECTED TO DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. WEST            
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...              
WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH            
A DEEP TROUGH AND AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC                   
STATES...A RIDGING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO... AND            
MORE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND WEST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS             
DEPICTS A RIDGE BLANKETING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                          
VALLEY...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LOW ARE OVER                   
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT              
STRETCHED BETWEEN THEM. ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC             
STATES.                                                                         
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AS            
THE QUEBEC LOW STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. THE SASKATCHEWAN             
LOW WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST ALSO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE              
TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LAKE                  
BREEZE CONVERGENCE CAUSING A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS                 
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE THESE             
TO DISSIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN               
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY             
PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP                    
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE LAKE. CURRENT FORECAST GRID              
AND ZFP LOOKS GOOD SO DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY UPDATE AT THIS TIME.              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST                 
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW TOPPING THE RIDGE              
AND STARTING TO FLATTEN IT ON SUNDAY WHILE THE QUEBEC TROUGH MOVES              
TO THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE                 
RIDGE AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE               
CWA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH FORMS ACROSS                
CENTRAL CANADA AND DIPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO THE WESTERN             
CWA 00Z MON ALONG WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG Q-VECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT LATE MON. NAM ALSO SHOWS               
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I300K-I315K SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE                 
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON IN A NARROW BAND. THE                   
MOISTURE LEAVES MON NIGHT ALONG WITH THE LIFT. GFS IS BRINGING IN               
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME                  
MOISTURE WHICH LASTS INTO MON NIGHT.                                            
BASICALLY...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.               
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN                  
EVENING AS LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL PREVENT ANYTHING FROM              
MOVING IN AND WILL KEEP THINGS WEST OF HERE FOR NOW. GOING                      
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND DID NOT MAKE THAT MANY CHANGES EXCEPT              
FOR A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. FOR TODAY...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE                
EAST WILL MIX OUT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO             
MIX TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND MIX SOME DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC FOR                 
LOWER DEW POINTS. NOT TOTALLY SURE ABOUT TUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
IN THERE...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND IF ANY            
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ANY LITTLE BIT OF                     
MOISTURE...CONCEIVABLE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.            
NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO THOUGH AND RATHER THAN WAFFLE BACK               
AND FORTH...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY CONDITION AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN THROUGH            
TONIGHT...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS WILL                  
BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS THE                
RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE EAST.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
AND THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS            
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MN...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STILL              
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON             
INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY             
CREEP UP TO 20 KT ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH              
IS EXPECTED TO DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. WEST            
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...              
WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO             
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO                        
SASK/MANITOBA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH               
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH A               
WEAK SFC TROUGH...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR TO             
45 KT HAS TRIGGERED ISOLD SVR STORMS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL            
SHRA/TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED  FROM CYQT TOWARD THE KEWEENAW...NEAR              
THE VORT CENTER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                           
EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA TO EXIT THE SE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING            
AS THE SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES              
IN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY OVER N UPPER                     
MI...CLOSEST TO THE VORT PATH.                                                  
QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PREVAIL                    
OVERNIGHT WITH CAA BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE NRLY FLOW             
AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.                          
HOWEVER...EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO FILTER IN SATURDAY MORNING FOR               
PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING FOR MAX READINGS TO AROUND 80 INLAND.              
BREEZE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER            
70S NEAR THE SHORE.                                                             
.LONG TERM... (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)                                              
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI SAT                   
NIGHT...REACHING LWR MI SUN AFTN. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
THE HIGH SAT NIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS                    
EXPECTED. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E HALF OF THE                
FCST AREA AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.            
SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREN`T MUCH BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME            
OF YEAR...PROBABLY DON`T NEED TO GO BLO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SO...MIN              
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S CNTRL/E TO THE MID/UPPER             
50S WEST.                                                                       
WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS SUN...BUT IS MOST STRONGLY FOCUSED FROM MN TO              
SRN WI WHERE SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE SETTING UP. SO...CONVECTIVE                 
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN S AND W THE FCST AREA SUN. IN ADDITION...             
EXAMINATION OF NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR HIGH END OF                  
POSSIBLE AFTN T/TD OF MID 80S/UPPER 50S SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CAPPING.              
THUS...ALL POPS FOR SUN AFTN WILL BE REMOVED.                                   
MON THRU FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR            
THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE EXPANDED E                  
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE U.S. BY MON WILL GET SUPPRESSED OVER THE             
E NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROF FOR EARLY AUG AMPLIFIES                
INTO SE CANADA AND THE ERN CONUS. AS RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO             
START THIS PERIOD WILL TREND DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY THU/FRI. TIMING            
OF COLD FRONT INITIATING THE COOL DOWN REMAINS FAIRLY WELL AGREED               
UPON AT THE MOMENT BY THE MODELS (UKMET/GFS/ECWMF)...PROBABLY                   
CROSSING UPPER MI AT SOME POINT MON/MON NIGHT WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH            
WHAT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. UNTIL IT PASSES...THERE             
WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA/TSRA. WHILE SVR STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...             
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATER POTENTIAL OF SVR MAY STAY S OF THE              
FCST AREA AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME INDICATION THAT A WARM                  
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP ACROSS MN/WI TO THE LOWER GREAT                   
LAKES...AND THAT MAY FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THERE. ALTHOUGH             
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BY TUE MORNING...WILL LINGER POPS INTO TUE TO                
COVER POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES WITH THE FRONT. THE PCPN FCST WED THRU            
FRI IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE            
DEVELOPING TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES THU/FRI...STRONGLY SUPPORTING              
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE                  
AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...IT COULD BE A CHILLY/CLOUDY DAY FRI               
WITH OCCASIONAL -RA. SINCE NONE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE AS              
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF/OP GFS...THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE A VERY              
LOW PROBABILITY. IN ANY EVENT...GENERAL PATTERN OF DEEP CYCLONIC                
FLOW/CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS THU AND FRI.             
IT`S POSSIBLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR WED AS WELL...BUT SINCE TROF IS            
NOT SETTLING INTO THE AREA YET...WILL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z RAOB FM INL AND EVIDENCED BY SFC              
DWPT IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD TO RESULT IN VFR                      
CONDITIONS AT CMX THRU THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES DOMINATING. BUT                
LINGERING LLVL MSTR FARTHER E AND WITH MORE FVRL NLY FLOW OFF LK SUP            
MAY RESULT IN A PD OF LO CLD/MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW                 
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DIURNAL HTG MIXES THE DRIER AIR TO THE SFC               
AFT SUNRISE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTER            
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GETTING                 
UP TO 20KT. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE              
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH TO WESTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY            
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
730 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO             
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO                        
SASK/MANITOBA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH               
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH A               
WEAK SFC TROUGH...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR TO             
45 KT HAS TRIGGERED ISOLD SVR STORMS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL            
SHRA/TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED  FROM CYQT TOWARD THE KEWEENAW...NEAR              
THE VORT CENTER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                           
EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA TO EXIT THE SE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING            
AS THE SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES              
IN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY OVER N UPPER                     
MI...CLOSEST TO THE VORT PATH.                                                  
QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PREVAIL                    
OVERNIGHT WITH CAA BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE NRLY FLOW             
AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.                          
HOWEVER...EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO FILTER IN SATURDAY MORNING FOR               
PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING FOR MAX READINGS TO AROUND 80 INLAND.              
BREEZE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER            
70S NEAR THE SHORE.                                                             
.LONG TERM... (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)                                              
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI SAT                   
NIGHT...REACHING LWR MI SUN AFTN. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
THE HIGH SAT NIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS                    
EXPECTED. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E HALF OF THE                
FCST AREA AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.            
SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREN`T MUCH BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME            
OF YEAR...PROBABLY DON`T NEED TO GO BLO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SO...MIN              
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S CNTRL/E TO THE MID/UPPER             
50S WEST.                                                                       
WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS SUN...BUT IS MOST STRONGLY FOCUSED FROM MN TO              
SRN WI WHERE SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE SETTING UP. SO...CONVECTIVE                 
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN S AND W THE FCST AREA SUN. IN ADDITION...             
EXAMINATION OF NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR HIGH END OF                  
POSSIBLE AFTN T/TD OF MID 80S/UPPER 50S SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CAPPING.              
THUS...ALL POPS FOR SUN AFTN WILL BE REMOVED.                                   
MON THRU FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR            
THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE EXPANDED E                  
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE U.S. BY MON WILL GET SUPPRESSED OVER THE             
E NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROF FOR EARLY AUG AMPLIFIES                
INTO SE CANADA AND THE ERN CONUS. AS RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO             
START THIS PERIOD WILL TREND DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY THU/FRI. TIMING            
OF COLD FRONT INITIATING THE COOL DOWN REMAINS FAIRLY WELL AGREED               
UPON AT THE MOMENT BY THE MODELS (UKMET/GFS/ECWMF)...PROBABLY                   
CROSSING UPPER MI AT SOME POINT MON/MON NIGHT WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH            
WHAT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. UNTIL IT PASSES...THERE             
WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA/TSRA. WHILE SVR STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...             
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATER POTENTIAL OF SVR MAY STAY S OF THE              
FCST AREA AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME INDICATION THAT A WARM                  
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP ACROSS MN/WI TO THE LOWER GREAT                   
LAKES...AND THAT MAY FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THERE. ALTHOUGH             
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BY TUE MORNING...WILL LINGER POPS INTO TUE TO                
COVER POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES WITH THE FRONT. THE PCPN FCST WED THRU            
FRI IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE            
DEVELOPING TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES THU/FRI...STRONGLY SUPPORTING              
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE                  
AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...IT COULD BE A CHILLY/CLOUDY DAY FRI               
WITH OCCASIONAL -RA. SINCE NONE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE AS              
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF/OP GFS...THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE A VERY              
LOW PROBABILITY. IN ANY EVENT...GENERAL PATTERN OF DEEP CYCLONIC                
FLOW/CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS THU AND FRI.             
IT`S POSSIBLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR WED AS WELL...BUT SINCE TROF IS            
NOT SETTLING INTO THE AREA YET...WILL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT LINGERING SHRA TO END EARLY THIS EVNG AT SAW AS STRONG UPR               
DISTURBANCE SWINGS TO THE SE. DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE 21Z TAMDAR SDNG            
FM INL AND EVIDENCED BY SFC DWPT OF 46 AT CKC WL RESULT IN VFR                  
CONDITIONS AT CMX THRU THE NGT. BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR FARTHER E               
AND WITH MORE FVRL NLY FLOW OFF LK SUP MAY RESULT IN A PD OF LO CLD/            
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW LATE TNGT BEFORE DIURNAL HTG                 
MIXES THE DRIER AIR TO THE SFC AFT SUNRISE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTER            
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GETTING                 
UP TO 20KT. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE              
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH TO WESTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY            
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
710 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION...                                      
.SYNOPSIS...(333 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
MODIFIED MARITIME PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED             
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL FOLLOW A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT                
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY              
DEVELOP HEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS               
EVENING.  THE PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRMASS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE              
EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE                
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.                 
THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL COME BACK THROUGH AS A            
WARM FRONT MONDAY BRINGING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO            
MOST OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY TUESDAY                 
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND THAT              
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(710 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                       
(TONIGHT)                                                                       
THE SHORTWAVE ON THE WATER VAPOR IS COMING ON SHORE OVER EASTERN                
LAKE MICHIGAN AS I WRITE THIS AT 7 PM. MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE                  
WEAKENED AS THEY CROSS THE LAKE. ONE STORM EAST OF MKE SEEMS...BEING            
THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND HAVING THE BEST INFLOW IS ALSO NOW WEAKENING             
BUT REMAINS THE STRONGEST CELL. GIVEN THE 700 TO 500 MB QVEC                    
CONVERGENCE FAVORS CONVECTION CROSSING THE CWA THIS EVENING AND                 
THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPES JUST EAST OF               
US-131 AT 7 PM. THUS I BELIEVE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS               
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TILL THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE CWA AROUND                 
MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN SOUTHWEST LOWER                
MICHIGAN IS IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB JET CORE...WHICH             
ON THE RUC SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  ALSO THE HEAT OF THE DAY              
IS OVER NOW SO NOT TO MUCH HELP THERE EITHER. NOT SO SAY AN ISOLATED            
SEVERE STORM OUT OF THE QUESTION... BUT LIKELY NOT MORE THAN THAT.              
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR STRONG MID LEVEL             
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE SHORTWAVE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(1110 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                       
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                       
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL TURN                
INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT              
WEEK ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH               
FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THAT TIME FRAME               
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.                            
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING             
WEDNESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. IN FACT BELOW NORMAL               
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS IN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(333 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                           
ONCE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH              
PRESSURE SHOULD CREATE A NEARLY IDEAL WEEKEND FOR BOATING AND GOING             
TO THE BEACH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(710 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD                       
FRONT...ONCE THAT FRONT IS THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THERE IS A               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT GIVEN THE              
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ON RADAR NOW...I DO NOT PLAN ON              
PUTTING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
SUGGEST SOME CU SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(333 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                        
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAVE NOW             
DROPPED DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF                  
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. NOT MUCH THREAT FOR              
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS ALMOST ALL OF THE STORMS              
WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR CWA.                                          
THE MORE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD FOR HYDRO WILL BE THE FIRST             
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT WILL BE IN THE REGION AND THERE COULD               
POTENTIALLY BE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. THIS SCENARIO              
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     WDM                                                               
SHORT TERM:   WDM                                                               
LONG TERM:    LAURENS                                                           
MARINE:       WDM                                                               
AVIATION:     WDM                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    WDM                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
438 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO             
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO                        
SASK/MANITOBA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH               
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH A               
WEAK SFC TROUGH...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR TO             
45 KT HAS TRIGGERED ISOLD SVR STORMS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL            
SHRA/TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED  FROM CYQT TOWARD THE KEWEENAW...NEAR              
THE VORT CENTER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                           
EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA TO EXIT THE SE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING            
AS THE SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES              
IN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY OVER N UPPER                     
MI...CLOSEST TO THE VORT PATH.                                                  
QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PREVAIL                    
OVERNIGHT WITH CAA BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE NRLY FLOW             
AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.                          
HOWEVER...EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO FILTER IN SATURDAY MORNING FOR               
PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING FOR MAX READINGS TO AROUND 80 INLAND.              
BREEZE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER            
70S NEAR THE SHORE.                                                             
.LONG TERM... (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)                                              
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI SAT                   
NIGHT...REACHING LWR MI SUN AFTN. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
THE HIGH SAT NIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS                    
EXPECTED. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E HALF OF THE                
FCST AREA AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.            
SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREN`T MUCH BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME            
OF YEAR...PROBABLY DON`T NEED TO GO BLO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SO...MIN              
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S CNTRL/E TO THE MID/UPPER             
50S WEST.                                                                       
WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS SUN...BUT IS MOST STRONGLY FOCUSED FROM MN TO              
SRN WI WHERE SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE SETTING UP. SO...CONVECTIVE                 
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN S AND W THE FCST AREA SUN. IN ADDITION...             
EXAMINATION OF NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR HIGH END OF                  
POSSIBLE AFTN T/TD OF MID 80S/UPPER 50S SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CAPPING.              
THUS...ALL POPS FOR SUN AFTN WILL BE REMOVED.                                   
MON THRU FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR            
THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE EXPANDED E                  
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE U.S. BY MON WILL GET SUPPRESSED OVER THE             
E NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROF FOR EARLY AUG AMPLIFIES                
INTO SE CANADA AND THE ERN CONUS. AS RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO             
START THIS PERIOD WILL TREND DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY THU/FRI. TIMING            
OF COLD FRONT INITIATING THE COOL DOWN REMAINS FAIRLY WELL AGREED               
UPON AT THE MOMENT BY THE MODELS (UKMET/GFS/ECWMF)...PROBABLY                   
CROSSING UPPER MI AT SOME POINT MON/MON NIGHT WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH            
WHAT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. UNTIL IT PASSES...THERE             
WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA/TSRA. WHILE SVR STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...             
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATER POTENTIAL OF SVR MAY STAY S OF THE              
FCST AREA AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME INDICATION THAT A WARM                  
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP ACROSS MN/WI TO THE LOWER GREAT                   
LAKES...AND THAT MAY FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THERE. ALTHOUGH             
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BY TUE MORNING...WILL LINGER POPS INTO TUE TO                
COVER POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES WITH THE FRONT. THE PCPN FCST WED THRU            
FRI IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE            
DEVELOPING TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES THU/FRI...STRONGLY SUPPORTING              
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE                  
AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...IT COULD BE A CHILLY/CLOUDY DAY FRI               
WITH OCCASIONAL -RA. SINCE NONE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE AS              
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF/OP GFS...THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE A VERY              
LOW PROBABILITY. IN ANY EVENT...GENERAL PATTERN OF DEEP CYCLONIC                
FLOW/CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS THU AND FRI.             
IT`S POSSIBLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR WED AS WELL...BUT SINCE TROF IS            
NOT SETTLING INTO THE AREA YET...WILL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR            
OVER CNTRL UPPER MI WILL RESULT IN SCT/ISOLD TSRA...WHICH COULD                 
AFFECT KSAW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. STABLE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY TSRA. COOLER MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE              
IN THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL              
FOR LOWER MVFR OR IFR CIGS AT KSAW WITH UPSLOPE MOIST NRLY LOW LEVEL            
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANY LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTER            
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GETTING                 
UP TO 20KT. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE              
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH TO WESTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY            
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING                 
THROUGH UPPER MI THAT HELPED SUPPORT DIMINISHING/WEAKENING AREA OF              
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CNTRL CWA. ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS LOCATED JUST NW OF             
CYQT. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV SHOULD REMAIN NORTH             
AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS TO NEAR             
80F AND  DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND              
1000 J/KG ...EXPECT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG             
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE ERN CWA. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40            
KT COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND 40 MPH            
WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO GOING GRIDS/FCST.                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF            
OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND PACIFIC NW. THERE IS A             
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND THIS HAS BEEN KICKING OFF              
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER MN.                            
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND AFFECT THE CWA TODAY WITH            
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SAT BEFORE THE NAM             
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT.               
NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH                  
MARGINAL DEEP MOISTURE TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS THE SAME            
WAY. WILL CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING. AS THIS                  
AFTERNOON COMES...POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE BREEZES WILL HELP TO KICK            
OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL GO CHANCE POPS IN THE LAKE BREEZE               
PRONE CONVERGENCE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.                                 
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST                   
TEMPERATURE WISE EXCEPT WARMED THEM UP A BIT SUN NIGHT IN DOWNSLOPE             
AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE TO 70 DEGREES OR SO. REMOVED POPS FROM SAT             
NIGHT AS GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRY AND THAT CONTINUED TO LOOK GOOD            
WITH 500 MB RIDGING IN CONTROL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUNDAY            
DRY AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO REMOVE SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST HALF FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE            
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR            
OVER CNTRL UPPER MI WILL RESULT IN SCT/ISOLD TSRA...WHICH COULD                 
AFFECT KSAW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. STABLE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY TSRA. COOLER MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE              
IN THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL              
FOR LOWER MVFR OR IFR CIGS AT KSAW WITH UPSLOPE MOIST NRLY LOW LEVEL            
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANY LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE...MINUS A BRIEF DISRUPTION             
BY A TROUGH CROSSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GETTING UP TO             
20KT. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE LAST               
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS SATURDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY                 
EARLY MONDAY  AFTERNOON...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY               
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
DISCUSSION...GM                                                                 
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
126 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION             
WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI              
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TVC HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING              
IMPACTED...AS STORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING IN EASTERN WI...AND WILL BE             
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. BUT            
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AT VERY LOW                    
LEVELS...AND EXPECT AN IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR STRATUS DECK BY DAWN.                
THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO AN MVFR CUMULUS DECK BY MIDDAY.             
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1039 AM FRI AUG 1...                                           
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WX TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE                
MOST OBVIOUS SURFACE FEATURE IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE                 
EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS IS PROVIDING A BACKGROUND WEAK NORTHWESTERLY              
LOW LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROFS/WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE                  
SEEN...ONE FROM THE THUMB TO FAR NORTHERN IL...AND A VERY SUBTLE ONE            
THAT APPEARS TO RUN FROM NORTHERN WI THRU THE STRAITS AND ON TO FAR             
NORTHERN LK HURON. ALOFT...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ALL NIGHT.                     
HOWEVER...PRECIP HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND A FEW            
STORMS WERE LOCATED IN S CENTRAL SUPERIOR...AND IN NE WI. PRECIP                
TRENDS AND SVR POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.                                 
TODAY...WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ABOVE 750MB TODAY THANKS TO THE                
INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FIRE OFF SURFACE-BASED            
CONVECTION. A 78/61 SURFACE PARCEL PRODUCES ABOUT 900J/KG OF                    
MLCAPE...THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE TOP-END FOR INSTABILITY. THE LOW              
LEVEL FLOW IS AND WILL REMAIN WEAK...RESULTING IN MINIMAL SHEAR IN              
THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ALSO ALLOWING LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND                  
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TRIGGER MECHANISMS.                                          
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR STRONG STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...             
WHERE MORNING STRATUS HAS HINDERED HEATING. TO THE SOUTH...THE                  
COMBINATION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW (WNW 500MB WINDS OF 45KT) AND              
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS (FROM 12.5K TO 11K FEET THIS AFTERNOON)...             
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING BOTH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS            
AND SMALL HAIL. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO STILL SEEMS REASONABLE             
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST.                                          
WILL ADJUST TIMING FOR PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE GRIDS...             
THOUGH THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS. TEMPS               
LOOK DECENT...WE ALREADY HAD EASTERN UPPER MI ON THE COOL SIDE AND              
THAT LOOKS REALLY GOOD NOW. HEATING IN THE SE ZONES HAD BEEN                    
INHIBITED BY WARM ADVECTION MID DECK...BUT THAT IS MOVING OUT NOW               
AND THEY HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP TO NEAR 80.                             
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                          
02Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW RELATIVELY              
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS ATOP A BROAD AND               
ELONGATED SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN                 
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW...ONE PASSING ACROSS IN/OH...A MYRIAD OF                 
WAVES OVER SASKETCHEWON/MANITOBA/ONTARIO...AND A DEEPER WAVE JUST               
OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NORTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT            
THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/ARROWHEAD OF MN WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT            
REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK/700-500MB -DIVQ/AND H850 TROUGH AXIS                
EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC.  LOW STRATUS                
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THIS TROUGH TOWARDS EASTERN UPPER                
AIDED BY RAPID BL COOLING...WHILE OTHER STRATO-CU/CU OVER THE HIGHER            
TERRAIN OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE                
MICHIGAN TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM                
FRONTAL SIGNATURE NE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN. SOME              
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER HEADING                  
TOWARDS THE LEELANAU PENINSULA.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER            
ON NUISANT MORNING CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE ATTENTION TURNS TO                    
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OVER ONTARIO HEADING            
TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                                                      
TODAY...BATCH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SE ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NE FLANK             
OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS            
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY                     
AFTERNOON HOURS.  ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS               
EASTERN UPPER.  WITH FURTHER BL COOLING...HARD TO PICK A POINT IN               
THE CWA THAT WONT AT LEAST BE PARTLY CLOUDY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY              
TO START THE MORNING.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CU FIELD              
BY MIDDAY...WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS MIXING                 
TAKES PLACE.  THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER ACROSS AREAS                   
ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARYS RIVER...AND ALSO FROM               
TVC TO HTL WHERE A TAD MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE                     
PRESENT.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO WILL BE SHIFTING                   
SOUTHEAST... REACHING AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY MIDDAY...AND             
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z.   WITH A WAVE DROPPING OVERHEAD...ONE            
MIGHT EXPECT A MORE WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SURFACE FEATURE WHICH                 
WOULD FOCUS CONVECTION.  NOT SO IN THIS CASE.  RESIDUAL TROUGHING               
ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK CIRCULATION LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OF THE CWA                
BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL LEAVE LAKE BREEZES/HIGHER                  
TERRAIN AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION...WHICH WILL            
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER.  COOLER H500 TEMPS                   
FALLING TO -15C WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING                    
WAVE...SERVING TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TO 11.3KFT.  MODIFYING A 21Z            
NAM SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH FOR A SURFACE PARCEL 78/60 YIELDS                 
BETWEEN 700-900 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND NO CIN.  WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR              
BETWEEN 40-50KTS SOUTH OF M-72...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW             
STORMS COULD CONTAIN ROTATION THAT WOULD GIVE UPDRAFTS A BOOST TO               
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR            
STORMS NEAR GRB TO DRIFT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO                 
REACH THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                          
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING               
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY               
ACROSS THE SE AREAS.  THEN...H850 TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OUT              
OF ONTARIO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BLO 925MB WHICH WILL CLIP EASTERN            
UPPER/NE LOWER.  COULD ALSO SEE LOW CLOUD COVER FORM A LITTLE BIT               
FARTHER WEST IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN AREAS AND RAPID NOCTURNAL COOLING.                                      
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE WELL                    
ENTRENCHED WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD COVER            
MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS NE LOWER AND AREAS ADJACENT TO               
SAG BAY...BUT ANY CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF INTO A CU FIELD.  MID-LEVEL              
CAP WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHICH WILL ENSURE A              
DRY DAY.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE            
BY EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.  HIGH                  
CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN LATE FROM UPSTREAM MCS ACTION OVER MN/WI...BUT              
THATS ABOUT IT.  LOWS IN THE 50S.                                               
REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE.  PRECIP CHANCES                   
INCREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE STALLS ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  AS              
OF RIGHT NOW...MUCH OF THE HEAT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE                   
REGION.  THE WARMEST DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUD                
COVER/PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT.  WILL LET THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST RIDE AND SEE SHOW SHE PANS OUT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1240 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL             
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN                  
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN             
FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER. WARMER              
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT             
MOVES IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN             
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                      
(TODAY)                                                                         
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE PROSPECTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SPC                 
OUTLOOK AREA...WE ALSO ARE WONDERING ABOUT AREAS FARTHER N NEAR                 
MOUNT PLEASANT. RUC GUIDANCE ADVERTISES A LOCAL MLCAPE MAX OF 1500+             
J/KG IN THAT AREA. ALSO...A STRONGER BAND OF WLY FLOW AND 40+ KT                
0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN WI. CLOUDS              
OVER NRN LOWER MI HAVE ERODED...SO QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT                      
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER WI WILL HAVE ON THIS AREA AS THEY CROSS THE              
LAKE.                                                                           
OTHERWISE...HAVE COMMENCED NOWCASTS FOR THE OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN                  
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING OVER SE LAKE MI...             
THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S STREAMING INTO THE AREA. DO NOT              
EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST TOO LONG...BUT IT WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON MARINE            
INTERESTS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(1110 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                       
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                       
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL TURN                
INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT              
WEEK ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH               
FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THAT TIME FRAME               
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.                            
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING             
WEDNESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. IN FACT BELOW NORMAL               
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS IN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                          
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE ADVECTION FOG                
THAT DEVELOPED MAINLY NEAR THE HOLLAND/GRAND HAVEN AREAS. THIS WILL             
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. EXPECT THE               
THREAT TO BE LIMITED IN DURATION AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER            
THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR               
OUT OF THE AREA AND PROMOTE MECHANICAL MIXING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE            
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1240 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z SAT. BOTH NE AND SE LWR MI               
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 19Z. NE LWR MI             
IN AN AREA OF STRONG PVA AND SE LWR MI IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG              
INSTABILITY AND SFC CONVERGENCE. A TSTORM COULD CLIP THE JXN AND                
PERHAPS LAN TAF SITE AFTER 19Z... BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL                 
DEVELOP FURTHER EAST AND DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTN ACROSS THE             
MAJORITY OF OUR AREA.  THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER TONIGHT                
THAN IT WAS LAST  NIGHT. A CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES               
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z SAT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                        
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAVE NOW             
DROPPED DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF                  
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE            
WATERS WILL BE ONLY AROUND AN INCH...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY               
STEADY. BASIN AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH            
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.                                               
THE MORE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD FOR HYDRO WILL BE THE FIRST             
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT WILL BE IN THE REGION AND THERE COULD               
POTENTIALLY BE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. THIS SCENARIO              
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   TJT                                                               
LONG TERM:    LAURENS                                                           
MARINE:       TJT                                                               
AVIATION:     LAURENS                                                           
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING                 
THROUGH UPPER MI THATHELPED SUPPORT DIMINISHING/WEAKENING AREA OF               
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CNTRL CWA. ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS LOCATED JUST NW OF             
CYQT. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV SHOULD REMAIN NORTH             
AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS TO NEAR             
80F AND  DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND              
1000 J/KG ...EXPECT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG             
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE ERN CWA. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40            
KT COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND 40 MPH            
WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO GOING GRIDS/FCST.                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF            
OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND PACIFIC NW. THERE IS A             
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND THIS HAS BEEN KICKING OFF              
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER MN.                            
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND AFFECT THE CWA TODAY WITH            
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SAT BEFORE THE NAM             
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT.               
NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH                  
MARGINAL DEEP MOISTURE TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS THE SAME            
WAY. WILL CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING. AS THIS                  
AFTERNOON COMES...POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE BREEZES WILL HELP TO KICK            
OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL GO CHANCE POPS IN THE LAKE BREEZE               
PRONE CONVERGENCE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.                                 
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST                   
TEMPERATURE WISE EXCEPT WARMED THEM UP A BIT SUN NIGHT IN DOWNSLOPE             
AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE TO 70 DEGREES OR SO. REMOVED POPS FROM SAT             
NIGHT AS GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRY AND THAT CONTINUED TO LOOK GOOD            
WITH 500 MB RIDGING IN CONTROL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUNDAY            
DRY AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO REMOVE SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST HALF FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE            
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN             
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED               
UPSTREAM...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT..EARLY                
SHOWERS AT CMX MAY TRANSITION TO SAW BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL               
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TS BEFORE MORE STABLE AIR              
WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE...MINUS A BRIEF DISRUPTION             
BY A TROUGH CROSSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GETTING UP TO             
20KT. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE LAST               
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS SATURDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY                 
EARLY MONDAY  AFTERNOON...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY               
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
DISCUSSION...GM                                                                 
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1110 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...LONG TERM...                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL             
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN                  
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN             
FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER. WARMER              
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT             
MOVES IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN             
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                      
(TODAY)                                                                         
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE PROSPECTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SPC                 
OUTLOOK AREA...WE ALSO ARE WONDERING ABOUT AREAS FARTHER N NEAR                 
MOUNT PLEASANT. RUC GUIDANCE ADVERTISES A LOCAL MLCAPE MAX OF 1500+             
J/KG IN THAT AREA. ALSO...A STRONGER BAND OF WLY FLOW AND 40+ KT                
0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN WI. CLOUDS              
OVER NRN LOWER MI HAVE ERODED...SO QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT                      
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER WI WILL HAVE ON THIS AREA AS THEY CROSS THE              
LAKE.                                                                           
OTHERWISE...HAVE COMMENCED NOWCASTS FOR THE OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN                  
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING OVER SE LAKE MI...             
THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S STREAMING INTO THE AREA. DO NOT              
EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST TOO LONG...BUT IT WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON MARINE            
INTERESTS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(1110 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                       
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                       
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL TURN                
INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT              
WEEK ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH               
FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THAT TIME FRAME               
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.                            
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING             
WEDNESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. IN FACT BELOW NORMAL               
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS IN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                          
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE ADVECTION FOG                
THAT DEVELOPED MAINLY NEAR THE HOLLAND/GRAND HAVEN AREAS. THIS WILL             
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. EXPECT THE               
THREAT TO BE LIMITED IN DURATION AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER            
THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR               
OUT OF THE AREA AND PROMOTE MECHANICAL MIXING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE            
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(700 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS IS IF/WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE A MENTION OF              
THUNDER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY             
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE OVER EASTERN LOWER MI... SO WILL STILL CARRY              
VCTS IN JUST THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES AFTER 20Z. WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW            
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE OTHER SITES STABLE ENOUGH TO                  
SERIOUSLY LIMIT THE THUNDER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS                 
LOWER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST  NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                        
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAVE NOW             
DROPPED DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF                  
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE            
WATERS WILL BE ONLY AROUND AN INCH...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY               
STEADY. BASIN AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH            
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.                                               
THE MORE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD FOR HYDRO WILL BE THE FIRST             
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT WILL BE IN THE REGION AND THERE COULD               
POTENTIALLY BE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. THIS SCENARIO              
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   TJT                                                               
LONG TERM:    LAURENS                                                           
MARINE:       TJT                                                               
AVIATION:     MJS                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WX TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12                 
HOURS. THE MOST OBVIOUS SURFACE FEATURE IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE             
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS IS PROVIDING A BACKGROUND WEAK                     
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROFS/WEAK COLD               
FRONTS ARE SEEN...ONE FROM THE THUMB TO FAR NORTHERN IL...AND A VERY            
SUBTLE ONE THAT APPEARS TO RUN FROM NORTHERN WI THRU THE STRAITS AND            
ON TO FAR NORTHERN LK HURON. ALOFT...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE                   
DIGGING ACROSS SUPERIOR WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ALL             
NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE SUNRISE. SHOWERS               
AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED IN S CENTRAL SUPERIOR...AND IN NE WI.             
PRECIP TRENDS AND SVR POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.                          
TODAY...WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ABOVE 750MB TODAY THANKS TO THE                
INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FIRE OFF SURFACE-BASED            
CONVECTION. A 78/61 SURFACE PARCEL PRODUCES ABOUT 900J/KG OF                    
MLCAPE...THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE TOP-END FOR INSTABILITY. THE LOW              
LEVEL FLOW IS AND WILL REMAIN WEAK...RESULTING IN MINIMAL SHEAR IN              
THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ALSO ALLOWING LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND                  
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TRIGGER MECHANISMS.                                          
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR STRONG STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...             
WHERE MORNING STRATUS HAS HINDERED HEATING. TO THE SOUTH...THE                  
COMBINATION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW (WNW 500MB WINDS OF 45KT) AND              
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS (FROM 12.5K TO 11K FEET THIS AFTERNOON)...             
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING BOTH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS            
AND SMALL HAIL. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO STILL SEEMS REASONABLE             
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST.                                          
WILL ADJUST TIMING FOR PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE GRIDS...             
THOUGH THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS. TEMPS               
LOOK DECENT...WE ALREADY HAD EASTERN UPPER MI ON THE COOL SIDE AND              
THAT LOOKS REALLY GOOD NOW. HEATING IN THE SE ZONES HAD BEEN                    
INHIBITED BY WARM ADVECTION MID DECK...BUT THAT IS MOVING OUT NOW               
AND THEY HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP TO NEAR 80.                             
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 723 AM FRI AUG 1...                                          
IFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE                 
STRAITS AND WILL IMPACT PLN FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. ONCE               
THESE CLOUDS LIFT...WILL BE AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS               
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TIMING            
TOOL HAS THESE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AROUND MIDDAY AT              
PLN AND TVC...WITH THE THREAT OF STORMS CONTINUING UNTIL MID-EVENING            
OR SO. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR AT TVC...BUT AN INCOMING LOW               
LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING BACK MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS TO APN AND PLN.                
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                          
02Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW RELATIVELY              
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS ATOP A BROAD AND               
ELONGATED SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN                 
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW...ONE PASSING ACROSS IN/OH...A MYRIAD OF                 
WAVES OVER SASKETCHEWON/MANITOBA/ONTARIO...AND A DEEPER WAVE JUST               
OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NORTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT            
THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/ARROWHEAD OF MN WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT            
REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK/700-500MB -DIVQ/AND H850 TROUGH AXIS                
EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC.  LOW STRATUS                
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THIS TROUGH TOWARDS EASTERN UPPER                
AIDED BY RAPID BL COOLING...WHILE OTHER STRATO-CU/CU OVER THE HIGHER            
TERRAIN OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE                
MICHIGAN TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM                
FRONTAL SIGNATURE NE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN. SOME              
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER HEADING                  
TOWARDS THE LEELANAU PENINSULA.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER            
ON NUISANT MORNING CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE ATTENTION TURNS TO                    
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OVER ONTARIO HEADING            
TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                                                      
TODAY...BATCH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SE ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NE FLANK             
OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS            
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY                     
AFTERNOON HOURS.  ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS               
EASTERN UPPER.  WITH FURTHER BL COOLING...HARD TO PICK A POINT IN               
THE CWA THAT WONT AT LEAST BE PARTLY CLOUDY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY              
TO START THE MORNING.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CU FIELD              
BY MIDDAY...WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS MIXING                 
TAKES PLACE.  THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER ACROSS AREAS                   
ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARYS RIVER...AND ALSO FROM               
TVC TO HTL WHERE A TAD MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE                     
PRESENT.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO WILL BE SHIFTING                   
SOUTHEAST... REACHING AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY MIDDAY...AND             
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z.   WITH A WAVE DROPPING OVERHEAD...ONE            
MIGHT EXPECT A MORE WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SURFACE FEATURE WHICH                 
WOULD FOCUS CONVECTION.  NOT SO IN THIS CASE.  RESIDUAL TROUGHING               
ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK CIRCULATION LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OF THE CWA                
BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL LEAVE LAKE BREEZES/HIGHER                  
TERRAIN AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION...WHICH WILL            
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER.  COOLER H500 TEMPS                   
FALLING TO -15C WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING                    
WAVE...SERVING TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TO 11.3KFT.  MODIFYING A 21Z            
NAM SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH FOR A SURFACE PARCEL 78/60 YIELDS                 
BETWEEN 700-900 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND NO CIN.  WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR              
BETWEEN 40-50KTS SOUTH OF M-72...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW             
STORMS COULD CONTAIN ROTATION THAT WOULD GIVE UPDRAFTS A BOOST TO               
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR            
STORMS NEAR GRB TO DRIFT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO                 
REACH THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                          
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING               
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY               
ACROSS THE SE AREAS.  THEN...H850 TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OUT              
OF ONTARIO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BLO 925MB WHICH WILL CLIP EASTERN            
UPPER/NE LOWER.  COULD ALSO SEE LOW CLOUD COVER FORM A LITTLE BIT               
FARTHER WEST IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN AREAS AND RAPID NOCTURNAL COOLING.                                      
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE WELL                    
ENTRENCHED WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD COVER            
MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS NE LOWER AND AREAS ADJACENT TO               
SAG BAY...BUT ANY CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF INTO A CU FIELD.  MID-LEVEL              
CAP WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHICH WILL ENSURE A              
DRY DAY.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE            
BY EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.  HIGH                  
CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN LATE FROM UPSTREAM MCS ACTION OVER MN/WI...BUT              
THATS ABOUT IT.  LOWS IN THE 50S.                                               
REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE.  PRECIP CHANCES                   
INCREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE STALLS ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  AS              
OF RIGHT NOW...MUCH OF THE HEAT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE                   
REGION.  THE WARMEST DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUD                
COVER/PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT.  WILL LET THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST RIDE AND SEE SHOW SHE PANS OUT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...MARINE...                                          
.SYNOPSIS...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL             
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN                  
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN             
FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER. WARMER              
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT             
MOVES IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN             
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                      
(TODAY)                                                                         
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE PROSPECTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SPC                 
OUTLOOK AREA...WE ALSO ARE WONDERING ABOUT AREAS FARTHER N NEAR                 
MOUNT PLEASANT. RUC GUIDANCE ADVERTISES A LOCAL MLCAPE MAX OF 1500+             
J/KG IN THAT AREA. ALSO...A STRONGER BAND OF WLY FLOW AND 40+ KT                
0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN WI. CLOUDS              
OVER NRN LOWER MI HAVE ERODED...SO QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT                      
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER WI WILL HAVE ON THIS AREA AS THEY CROSS THE              
LAKE.                                                                           
OTHERWISE...HAVE COMMENCED NOWCASTS FOR THE OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN                  
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING OVER SE LAKE MI...             
THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S STREAMING INTO THE AREA. DO NOT              
EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST TOO LONG...BUT IT WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON MARINE            
INTERESTS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                        
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SEVERAL RUNS AGO MODELS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES                
INTO THE 90S.  HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A LOWERING OF              
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WE MAY                     
STRUGGLE TO TOP 90...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                     
CONVECTION.  WITH A COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUE                  
NIGHT INTO WED...THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARMER AND INCREASINGLY                  
HUMID.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL              
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES BEHIND            
THE COLD FRONT ORIGINATES FROM CENTRAL CANADA...THUS WE MAY END UP              
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                          
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE ADVECTION FOG                
THAT DEVELOPED MAINLY NEAR THE HOLLAND/GRAND HAVEN AREAS. THIS WILL             
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. EXPECT THE               
THREAT TO BE LIMITED IN DURATION AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER            
THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR               
OUT OF THE AREA AND PROMOTE MECHANICAL MIXING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE            
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(700 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                         
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS IS IF/WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE A MENTION OF              
THUNDER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY             
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE OVER EASTERN LOWER MI... SO WILL STILL CARRY              
VCTS IN JUST THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES AFTER 20Z. WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW            
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE OTHER SITES STABLE ENOUGH TO                  
SERIOUSLY LIMIT THE THUNDER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS                 
LOWER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST  NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(355 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008)                                        
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAVE NOW             
DROPPED DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF                  
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE            
WATERS WILL BE ONLY AROUND AN INCH...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY               
STEADY. BASIN AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH            
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.                                               
THE MORE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD FOR HYDRO WILL BE THE FIRST             
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT WILL BE IN THE REGION AND THERE COULD               
POTENTIALLY BE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. THIS SCENARIO              
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   TJT                                                               
LONG TERM:    MJS                                                               
MARINE:       TJT                                                               
AVIATION:     MJS                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
723 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...IFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN                   
UPPER AND THE STRAITS AND WILL IMPACT PLN FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS               
MORNING. ONCE THESE CLOUDS LIFT...WILL BE AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF               
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN                
WISCONSIN. TIMING TOOL HAS THESE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS                      
ARRIVING AROUND MIDDAY AT PLN AND TVC...WITH THE THREAT OF STORMS               
CONTINUING UNTIL MID-EVENING OR SO. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR               
AT TVC...BUT AN INCOMING LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING BACK MVFR IF                
NOT IFR CIGS TO APN AND PLN.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                 
SHOW RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS                
ATOP A BROAD AND ELONGATED SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES            
CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW...ONE PASSING ACROSS IN/OH...A               
MYRIAD OF WAVES OVER SASKETCHEWON/MANITOBA/ONTARIO...AND A DEEPER               
WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NORTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS              
CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/ARROWHEAD OF MN WITHIN              
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK/700-500MB -DIVQ/AND H850              
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC.  LOW            
STRATUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THIS TROUGH TOWARDS EASTERN              
UPPER AIDED BY RAPID BL COOLING...WHILE OTHER STRATO-CU/CU OVER THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK                
WARM FRONTAL SIGNATURE NE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN.              
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER HEADING             
TOWARDS THE LEELANAU PENINSULA.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER            
ON NUISANT MORNING CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE ATTENTION TURNS TO                    
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OVER ONTARIO HEADING            
TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                                                      
TODAY...BATCH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SE ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NE FLANK             
OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS            
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON           
HOURS.  ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS EASTERN                 
UPPER.  WITH FURTHER BL COOLING...HARD TO PICK A POINT IN THE CWA               
THAT WONT AT LEAST BE PARTLY CLOUDY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START             
THE MORNING.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CU FIELD BY                    
MIDDAY...WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS MIXING TAKES              
PLACE.  THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER ACROSS AREAS ADJACENT TO             
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARYS RIVER...AND ALSO FROM TVC TO HTL                
WHERE A TAD MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE PRESENT.                       
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO WILL BE SHIFTING                             
SOUTHEAST...REACHING AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY MIDDAY...AND              
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z.   WITH A WAVE DROPPING OVERHEAD...ONE            
MIGHT EXPECT A MORE WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SURFACE FEATURE WHICH                 
WOULD FOCUS CONVECTION.  NOT SO IN THIS CASE.  RESIDUAL TROUGHING               
ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK CIRCULATION LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OF THE                    
CWA BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL LEAVE LAKE BREEZES/HIGHER              
TERRAIN AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION...WHICH WILL            
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER.  COOLER H500 TEMPS                   
FALLING TO -15C WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING                    
WAVE...SERVING TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TO 11.3KFT.  MODIFYING A 21Z            
NAM SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH FOR A SURFACE PARCEL 78/60 YIELDS                 
BETWEEN 700-900 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND NO CIN.  WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR              
BETWEEN 40-50KTS SOUTH OF M-72...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW             
STORMS COULD CONTAIN ROTATION THAT WOULD GIVE UPDRAFTS A BOOST TO               
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR            
STORMS NEAR GRB TO DRIFT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO                 
REACH THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                          
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING               
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY               
ACROSS THE SE AREAS.  THEN...H850 TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OUT              
OF ONTARIO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BLO 925MB WHICH WILL CLIP EASTERN            
UPPER/NE LOWER.  COULD ALSO SEE LOW CLOUD COVER FORM A LITTLE BIT               
FARTHER WEST IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN AREAS AND RAPID NOCTURNAL COOLING.                                      
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE WELL                    
ENTRENCHED WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD COVER            
MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS NE LOWER AND AREAS ADJACENT TO               
SAG BAY...BUT ANY CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF INTO A CU FIELD.  MID-LEVEL CAP          
WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHICH WILL ENSURE A DRY              
DAY.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY             
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.  HIGH CLOUDS              
MAY DRIFT IN LATE FROM UPSTREAM MCS ACTION OVER MN/WI...BUT THATS               
ABOUT IT.  LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                     
REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE.  PRECIP CHANCES                   
INCREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE STALLS ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  AS              
OF RIGHT NOW...MUCH OF THE HEAT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE                   
REGION.  THE WARMEST DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUD                
COVER/PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT.  WILL LET THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST RIDE AND SEE SHOW SHE PANS OUT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
404 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                
SHOW RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS                
ATOP A BROAD AND ELONGATED SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES            
CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW...ONE PASSING ACROSS IN/OH...A               
MYRIAD OF WAVES OVER SASKETCHEWON/MANITOBA/ONTARIO...AND A DEEPER               
WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NORTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS              
CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/ARROWHEAD OF MN WITHIN              
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK/700-500MB -DIVQ/AND H850              
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC.  LOW            
STRATUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THIS TROUGH TOWARDS EASTERN              
UPPER AIDED BY RAPID BL COOLING...WHILE OTHER STRATO-CU/CU OVER THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK                
WARM FRONTAL SIGNATURE NE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN.              
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER HEADING             
TOWARDS THE LEELANAU PENINSULA.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER            
ON NUISANT MORNING CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE ATTENTION TURNS TO                    
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OVER ONTARIO HEADING            
TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                                                      
TODAY...BATCH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SE ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NE FLANK             
OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS            
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON           
HOURS.  ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS EASTERN                 
UPPER.  WITH FURTHER BL COOLING...HARD TO PICK A POINT IN THE CWA               
THAT WONT AT LEAST BE PARTLY CLOUDY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START             
THE MORNING.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CU FIELD BY                    
MIDDAY...WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS MIXING TAKES              
PLACE.  THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER ACROSS AREAS ADJACENT TO             
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARYS RIVER...AND ALSO FROM TVC TO HTL                
WHERE A TAD MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE PRESENT.                       
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO WILL BE SHIFTING                             
SOUTHEAST...REACHING AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY MIDDAY...AND              
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z.   WITH A WAVE DROPPING OVERHEAD...ONE            
MIGHT EXPECT A MORE WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SURFACE FEATURE WHICH                 
WOULD FOCUS CONVECTION.  NOT SO IN THIS CASE.  RESIDUAL TROUGHING               
ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK CIRCULATION LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OF THE                    
CWA BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL LEAVE LAKE BREEZES/HIGHER              
TERRAIN AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION...WHICH WILL            
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER.  COOLER H500 TEMPS                   
FALLING TO -15C WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING                    
WAVE...SERVING TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TO 11.3KFT.  MODIFYING A 21Z            
NAM SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH FOR A SURFACE PARCEL 78/60 YIELDS                 
BETWEEN 700-900 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND NO CIN.  WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR              
BETWEEN 40-50KTS SOUTH OF M-72...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW             
STORMS COULD CONTAIN ROTATION THAT WOULD GIVE UPDRAFTS A BOOST TO               
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR            
STORMS NEAR GRB TO DRIFT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO                 
REACH THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                          
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING               
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY               
ACROSS THE SE AREAS.  THEN...H850 TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OUT              
OF ONTARIO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BLO 925MB WHICH WILL CLIP EASTERN            
UPPER/NE LOWER.  COULD ALSO SEE LOW CLOUD COVER FORM A LITTLE BIT               
FARTHER WEST IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN AREAS AND RAPID NOCTURNAL COOLING.                                      
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE WELL                    
ENTRENCHED WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD COVER            
MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS NE LOWER AND AREAS ADJACENT TO               
SAG BAY...BUT ANY CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF INTO A CU FIELD.  MID-LEVEL CAP          
WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHICH WILL ENSURE A DRY              
DAY.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY             
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.  HIGH CLOUDS              
MAY DRIFT IN LATE FROM UPSTREAM MCS ACTION OVER MN/WI...BUT THATS               
ABOUT IT.  LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                     
REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE.  PRECIP CHANCES                   
INCREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE STALLS ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  AS              
OF RIGHT NOW...MUCH OF THE HEAT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE                   
REGION.  THE WARMEST DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUD                
COVER/PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT.  WILL LET THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST RIDE AND SEE SHOW SHE PANS OUT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                          
AVIATION...IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT               
FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.             
BKN 5-8KFT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX AND ILL DEFINED             
WARM FRONT OVER WISCONSIN WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER                       
MICHIGAN...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL            
LIKELY DEVELOP AT KPLN AND KAPN...PERHAPS STARTING OFF AS SOME                  
PATCHY FOG...LIFTING INTO A STRATUS DECK BY DAYBREAK.                           
OTHERWISE...THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SWEEP INTO ALPENA                   
OVERNIGHT. ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING                
HOURS...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO             
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                            
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
100 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BUMPED UP POPS FM 20 TO 30 PCT OVER THE NW LATE TNGT AS SCT SHRA/               
TSRA HAVE DVLPD OVER NRN MN IN LEFT EXIT OF FAIRLY STRONG H3 JET MAX            
DIGGING SEWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG. LATEST RUC/GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY                  
IMPRESSIVE DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT              
OF THE ACCOMPANYING JET MAX IMPACTING THE NW ZNS ON THE CYC SIDE OF             
THE JET AXIS AFT 06Z. HOWEVER...WEAK CNVGC ALG THE ATTENDANT COLD               
FNT AND LATE ARRIVAL TIME WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING WARRANT NO MORE                
THAN A 30 POP. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE ERN ZNS LATE TNGT            
WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THERE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THRU                  
SUNRISE AND FCST LO TEMPS LIKELY GOING BELOW CROSSOVER DWPT IN THE              
UPR 50S.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST              
QUEBEC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND                
ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE                
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE RIDGE AREA OVER             
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER             
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN             
MINNESOTA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                             
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOW OVER THE THE WESTERN            
CANADIAN PROVINCES EJECT A WAVE TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                     
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD DIP AND CUT OFF OVER EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD            
ACT TO ASSIST THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER                   
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                
.LONG TERM... (FRI NIGHT THRU THU)                                              
FRI NIGHT/SAT...IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES FRI...MID/UPPER            
RIDGE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH              
PRES SETTLING OVER THE AREA. SO...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WITH            
SFC HIGH REACHING WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE COOLEST              
OVER THE W. SINCE AIRMASS FROM A PRECIPITABLE WATER STANDPOINT IS               
NOT EXCESSIVELY DRY (VALUES OF 0.75-1 INCH AREN`T MUCH BLO NORMAL               
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...WILL NOT GO ANY LWR THAN THE LWR END OF                
MOS GUIDANCE (AROUND 50F IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS). OTHERWISE...IN             
GENERAL...MID 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SHOULD            
BE A NICE EARLY AUG DAY SAT WITH A MIX OF SUN AND AFTN CU. LAKE                 
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING             
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN.                                                  
SUN THRU THU...RIDGE OVER THE SW STATES IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPAND             
FROM THE SW STATES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT                 
WEEK. GFS/ECWMF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE THEN MOVING TOWARD AGREEMENT THAT            
A SE CANADA/NE CONUS TROF WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT            
WEEK...A TREND THAT HAS BEEN HINTED AT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A            
RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (POSSIBLY ONE                   
HOT/HUMID DAY) WILL TREND DOWN TO NORMAL AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE BELOW            
NORMAL BY THU. TIMING OF COLD FRONT INITIATING THE COOL DOWN IS                 
FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON AT THE MOMENT BY THE MODELS...PROBABLY                  
CROSSING UPPER MI AT SOME POINT MON/MON NIGHT. UNTIL IT PASSES...               
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON. WHILE SVR STORMS CAN`T BE            
RULED OUT...THE GREATER POTENTIAL OF SVR MAY STAY S OF THE FCST AREA            
AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE SET              
UP ACROSS MN/WI TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THAT MAY FOCUS THE               
STRONGEST CONVECTION THERE. ALTHOUGH FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BY TUE                  
MORNING...WILL LINGER POPS INTO TUE TO COVER POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES            
WITH THE FRONT. IT APPEARS WED AND THU SHOULD THEN BE DRY IN THE                
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE ISOLD                
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NW SINCE THAT IS A                
PATTERN THAT OFTEN FAVORS ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DURING THE SUMMER.               
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE A                     
MENTION...PARTICULARLY SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT            
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RADIATION FOG AT SAW BEFORE MORE MID CLD             
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM SCNTRL CAN INVADES UPR MI LATER            
TNGT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PD. EARLIER               
ARRIVAL OF THIS CLD ESPECIALLY AT CMX HAS REDUCED POTENTIAL FOR MORE            
SUBSTANTIVE RADIATION FOG...SO FCST NOTHING WORSE THAN AN MVFR VSBY             
AND ONLY AT SAW BEFORE BKN CLDS ARRIVE LATER. SOME -SHRA WITH ISOLD             
TS ARE ALSO PSBL TOWARD DAWN AT CMX AND THEN LATER THIS MRNG AT SAW.            
DRYING/LK STABILIZATION WL END THE SHRA CHCS NW TO SE THIS AFTN AND             
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THRU TNGT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.             
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY... A             
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY                  
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY             
AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS              
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY TREKS                
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
656 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                                           
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF                        
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
EARLY MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR ALLOWED FOR A LOW STARTING                
POINT TO TODAYS TEMPS...AND WITH INCOMING CIRRUS THE MERCURY HAS                
BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RISE THIS AFTN. BUT THE CLOUDS AND                        
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS NOT TO DROP MUCH                      
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE COMMON IN                 
THE MN FORECAST AREA...10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.                 
12Z RAOBS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A TIGHT 850-600MB BAROCLINIC               
ZONE FROM ERN SD INTO IA. THIS HAS PROPAGATED GRADUALLY NEWRD                   
INTO SW MN AND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BREEDING GROUND FOR SOME                   
STRONG CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ INCREASES TO              
45 TO 50 KTS. SOME ACCAS WAS APPARENT THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE IN                
NRN IA TOO...INDICATIVE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.                                
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED SLOWLY EWRD TODAY AHEAD OF A                     
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IN SD. THIS HAS BEEN UNDER VERY WARM 700MB                  
TEMPS AS ANALYZED BY THE RUC AT 15C TO 17C. SO THERE IS A SMALL                 
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLD SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.              
MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E                
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN                    
MN/NRN IA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 8-9 C/KM IN THE                       
700-400MB LAYER ARE PROJECTED BY THE GUIDANCE...WITH DEEP                       
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THAT VERTICAL CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO                        
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND NEGATIVE EPV FURTHER AIDING IN UPWARD                 
MOTION. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL MODE. 09Z SREF                
SUPERCELL MODE PROBABILITY IS GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT IN SRN MN                 
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH /15.5-16.0             
KFT/ POSSIBLY NEGATING SVR HAIL. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD/EVOLVE BOTH EWRD AND SWRD THRU THE REMAINDER OF SUN MORNING               
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CAP. SO HAVE              
INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING FOR SRN MN AND ERN MN/WRN              
WI RESPECTIVELY. MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST IN ND AND POTENTIALLY              
SD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH PRECIP...BUT MAY LEAD                
TO MORE CLOUDS FOR SUN AFTN.                                                    
DURING THE AFTN ON SUN...850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED               
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A                
SUB 1005MB LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR NE NEBRASKA LATE IN THE                  
AFTN ON MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A CONNECTED 70F PLUS TD FETCH TO THE               
GULF. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED                
ON MOST GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. WITH SOME LOW AND                 
MID-LEVEL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION                        
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SRN MN...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS                      
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED CAP LEADS                
TO HIGH MLCIN VALUES ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH 21Z AND EVEN               
HINTED AT UNTIL 00Z GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S LIKELY                
NOT BEING REACHED. HOWEVER...IN THE EVE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS               
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A VORT MAXIMA AND                   
CONVECTION IS THEN MUCH MORE LIKELY. WITH INCREASING LLJ                        
SUPPORT...NAMELY IN SRN AND ERN MN AND WRN WI...SOME OF THE                     
CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                   
MON WILL POSE ONE MORE DAY WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS SFC                   
COLD FRONT OOZES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY A               
LOT BETWEEN THEN AND NOW...BUT THE MAIN FORECAST TREND HAS BEEN TO              
SPEED THIS PROGRESSION UP. THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH                   
GUIDANCE DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHERN                
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS LEGIT...SO HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS              
IN NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. TIMING OF                  
IMPULSES IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE FOR MON...BUT DOES APPEAR THERE ARE                 
DECENT AFTN AND EVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR SRN AND SE MN. FRONT                 
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY                 
TUES.                                                                           
BEYOND...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SET UP THROUGH THE END OF                
THE WEEK AS ERN NA LONG WAVE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS                     
GRADUALLY WORK DOWNWARDS AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                    
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNS OF VORT                  
SPOKES DURING THU-SAT ON WRN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH...BUT AT THIS                  
POINT THE ECMWF AND GFS WOULD FAVOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR AFTN/EVE                
SHRA CHANCES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS...WITH AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION UNCERTAIN               
ACRS THE AREA THRU TMRW AFTN/EVE. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING                    
INVERSION PRESENT ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ANEMIC LOOKING VIS               
SAT IMAGE CONFIRMING SUCH. LLJ FORECAST TO INCR INTO SWRN                       
MN...WITH RESULTING INCR IN MSTR TRANSPORT. ELEVATED TSRA/SHRA                  
COULD DEVELOP ALNG THETA E BNDRY TOWARD EARLY MRNG /AFT 09Z/ IN                 
SWRN MN...WHICH WOULD AFFECT RWF INITIALLY...SPREADING EWRD DURG                
THE MRNG HRS. WITH CONT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO...ELECTED TO               
CONT THE PROB30 AND VCSH COMBO AT ALL SITES. ADDITIONAL                         
COMPLICATING FACTOR WRT CONVECTION IS DECRG COMPLEX NW OF THE FA.               
THIS COULD GRAZE AXN...AND WILL MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS IF IT DOES               
NOT DIE BEFORE REACHING THE FA. DURG THE AFTN TMRW...THERE SHUD                 
LARGELY BE DECR LO CLDS...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WINDS WL REMAIN                
SERLY THRU THE PD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/KAT                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF                        
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
EARLY MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR ALLOWED FOR A LOW STARTING                
POINT TO TODAYS TEMPS...AND WITH INCOMING CIRRUS THE MERCURY HAS                
BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RISE THIS AFTN. BUT THE CLOUDS AND                        
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS NOT TO DROP MUCH                      
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE COMMON IN                 
THE MN FORECAST AREA...10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.                 
12Z RAOBS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A TIGHT 850-600MB BAROCLINIC               
ZONE FROM ERN SD INTO IA. THIS HAS PROPAGATED GRADUALLY NEWRD                   
INTO SW MN AND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BREEDING GROUND FOR SOME                   
STRONG CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ INCREASES TO              
45 TO 50 KTS. SOME ACCAS WAS APPARENT THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE IN                
NRN IA TOO...INDICATIVE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.                                
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED SLOWLY EWRD TODAY AHEAD OF A                     
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IN SD. THIS HAS BEEN UNDER VERY WARM 700MB                  
TEMPS AS ANALYZED BY THE RUC AT 15C TO 17C. SO THERE IS A SMALL                 
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLD SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.              
MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E                
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN                    
MN/NRN IA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 8-9 C/KM IN THE                       
700-400MB LAYER ARE PROJECTED BY THE GUIDANCE...WITH DEEP                       
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THAT VERTICAL CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO                        
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND NEGATIVE EPV FURTHER AIDING IN UPWARD                 
MOTION. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL MODE. 09Z SREF                
SUPERCELL MODE PROBABILITY IS GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT IN SRN MN                 
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH /15.5-16.0             
KFT/ POSSIBLY NEGATING SVR HAIL. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD/EVOLVE BOTH EWRD AND SWRD THRU THE REMAINDER OF SUN MORNING               
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CAP. SO HAVE              
INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING FOR SRN MN AND ERN MN/WRN              
WI RESPECTIVELY. MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST IN ND AND POTENTIALLY              
SD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH PRECIP...BUT MAY LEAD                
TO MORE CLOUDS FOR SUN AFTN.                                                    
DURING THE AFTN ON SUN...850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED               
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A                
SUB 1005MB LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR NE NEBRASKA LATE IN THE                  
AFTN ON MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A CONNECTED 70F PLUS TD FETCH TO THE               
GULF. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED                
ON MOST GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. WITH SOME LOW AND                 
MID-LEVEL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION                        
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SRN MN...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS                      
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED CAP LEADS                
TO HIGH MLCIN VALUES ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH 21Z AND EVEN               
HINTED AT UNTIL 00Z GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S LIKELY                
NOT BEING REACHED. HOWEVER...IN THE EVE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS               
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A VORT MAXIMA AND                   
CONVECTION IS THEN MUCH MORE LIKELY. WITH INCREASING LLJ                        
SUPPORT...NAMELY IN SRN AND ERN MN AND WRN WI...SOME OF THE                     
CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                   
MON WILL POSE ONE MORE DAY WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS SFC                   
COLD FRONT OOZES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY A               
LOT BETWEEN THEN AND NOW...BUT THE MAIN FORECAST TREND HAS BEEN TO              
SPEED THIS PROGRESSION UP. THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH                   
GUIDANCE DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHERN                
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS LEGIT...SO HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS              
IN NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. TIMING OF                  
IMPULSES IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE FOR MON...BUT DOES APPEAR THERE ARE                 
DECENT AFTN AND EVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR SRN AND SE MN. FRONT                 
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY                 
TUES.                                                                           
BEYOND...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SET UP THROUGH THE END OF                
THE WEEK AS ERN NA LONG WAVE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS                     
GRADUALLY WORK DOWNWARDS AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                    
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNS OF VORT                  
SPOKES DURING THU-SAT ON WRN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH...BUT AT THIS                  
POINT THE ECMWF AND GFS WOULD FAVOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR AFTN/EVE                
SHRA CHANCES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI AT MIDDAY. SE SURFACE                   
WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS                  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. EXPECT 12 TO 15 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING                   
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE MN TAF SITES WITH GUSTS                
INTO THE MID 20S FOR KAXN AND KRWF. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS                
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN IA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUR WAY TONIGHT. LOW                 
LEVEL JET POKING INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED                  
WITH LOW LEVEL WAA AND STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD                  
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE FROM                     
EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE IN THE                    
EVENING AND PERHAPS REACH THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE                 
INDICATED PROB GROUPS FOR THUNDER FOR ALL BUT KEAU OVERNIGHT/EARLY              
SUNDAY. IF ACTIVITY FORMS AS EXPECTED...KEAU MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/RAH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1035 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD            
FRONT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SOME                   
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT HAS RESULTED IN                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST AND                
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY            
DRY LOW LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH SOME OF              
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RUC IS HINTING AT ISOLATED PRECIP                   
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM MADISON COUNTY THROUGH FERGUS                             
COUNTY...CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. THUS ISOLATED POP               
COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW LEVEL            
STABILIZATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH AN              
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FROM                    
LEWISTOWN TO BOZEMAN...WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS FORECAST. CLOUD                 
COVERAGE HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PER LATEST              
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS ARE IN                
GOOD SHAPE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.                                  
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE                
REGION. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE                   
STRONGER THAN THAT TODAY...WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR                      
PERSISTING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY                
FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH               
OVER ALBERTA WILL FURTHER AID IN THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS.                       
COHEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 0435Z.                                                                  
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS             
THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN SPEED AND BECOME                      
NORTHWESTERLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY EAST              
OF A GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE LINE... AND WILL CONTINUE BEFORE ENDING BY            
08Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPDATED 0330Z.                                                                  
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AS RELATIVE                   
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RISE. BETTER RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS               
EXPECTED TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES             
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT. THUS...THE RED            
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA ARE                
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER.            
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LITTLE                    
RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. FOR SATURDAY AND                   
SUNDAY...BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND                         
EVENING...THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE                 
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL...SO THE THREAT               
FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER THIS WEEKEND.               
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS               
THIS WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS.  ACOHEN           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                                              
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                     
CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA                   
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A VERY WARM AND                    
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A FEW                         
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH                 
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA. OTHERWISE...THE                   
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE                    
SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTH                   
CENTRAL MONTANA WHERE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL                
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH                  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE EVENING. A RED              
FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE AREA (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). AS THE COLD FRONT                    
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE                    
NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO              
NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND WESTERLY FLOW                  
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY                  
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON                
AND EVENING HOURS...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY.              
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN THEY ARE                         
TODAY...THEY WILL STILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND THE AIRMASS              
WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT                   
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING               
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULSTON                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH                
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRODUCING A FEW               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND                 
THE TROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW                     
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO                
REBUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE CENTERING OVER                
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY                    
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20                
PERCENT AS A RESULT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED...MAINLY                      
DRY...THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING                 
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL                   
NORMALS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  50  83  47  82 /  10  20  20  10                                           
CTB  46  78  42  77 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HLN  55  86  54  84 /  10  20  20  10                                           
BZN  50  88  48  84 /  20  20  20  20                                           
WEY  43  80  41  78 /  20  20  20  20                                           
DLN  49  85  47  82 /  10  20  20  20                                           
HVR  50  85  46  83 /  10  10  20  10                                           
LWT  50  83  48  79 /  20  20  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN                                                                  
SHORT TERM...COULSTON                                                           
LONG TERM...LOSS                                                                
AVIATION...EMANUEL                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
920 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD            
FRONT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SOME                   
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT HAS RESULTED IN                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST AND                
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY            
DRY LOW LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH SOME OF              
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RUC IS HINTING AT ISOLATED PRECIP                   
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM MADISON COUNTY THROUGH FERGUS                             
COUNTY...CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. THUS ISOLATED POP               
COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW LEVEL            
STABILIZATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH AN              
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FROM                    
LEWISTOWN TO BOZEMAN...WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS FORECAST. CLOUD                 
COVERAGE HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PER LATEST              
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS ARE IN                
GOOD SHAPE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.                                  
FOR SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE                
REGION. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE                   
STRONGER THAN THAT TODAY...WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR                      
PERSISTING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY                
FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH               
OVER ALBERTA WILL FURTHER AID IN THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS.                       
COHEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 2340Z.                                                                  
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEST               
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS SLOWLY                    
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 04Z. ISOLATED EVENING              
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DILLON TO              
BOZEMAN TO LEWISTOWN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY 06Z. VFR                  
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF             
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPDATED 0330Z.                                                                  
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AS RELATIVE                   
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RISE. BETTER RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS               
EXPECTED TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES             
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT. THUS...THE RED            
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA ARE                
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER.            
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LITTLE                    
RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. FOR SATURDAY AND                   
SUNDAY...BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND                         
EVENING...THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE                 
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL...SO THE THREAT               
FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER THIS WEEKEND.               
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS               
THIS WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS.  ACOHEN           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                                              
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                     
CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA                   
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A VERY WARM AND                    
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A FEW                         
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH                 
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA. OTHERWISE...THE                   
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE                    
SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTH                   
CENTRAL MONTANA WHERE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL                
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH                  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE EVENING. A RED              
FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE AREA (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). AS THE COLD FRONT                    
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE                    
NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO              
NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND WESTERLY FLOW                  
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY                  
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON                
AND EVENING HOURS...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY.              
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN THEY ARE                         
TODAY...THEY WILL STILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND THE AIRMASS              
WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT                   
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING               
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULSTON                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH                
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRODUCING A FEW               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND                 
THE TROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW                     
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO                
REBUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE CENTERING OVER                
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY                    
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20                
PERCENT AS A RESULT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED...MAINLY                      
DRY...THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING                 
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL                   
NORMALS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  50  83  47  82 /  10  20  20  10                                           
CTB  46  78  42  77 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HLN  55  86  54  84 /  10  20  20  10                                           
BZN  50  88  48  84 /  20  20  20  20                                           
WEY  43  80  41  78 /  20  20  20  20                                           
DLN  49  85  47  82 /  10  20  20  20                                           
HVR  50  85  46  83 /  10  10  20  10                                           
LWT  50  83  48  79 /  20  20  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN                                                                  
SHORT TERM...COULSTON                                                           
LONG TERM...LOSS                                                                
AVIATION...EMANUEL                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1050 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2008                                                     
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE               
FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO UPDATE HOURLY                                     
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS PER RECENT                         
OBSERVATIONS. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK SURFACE              
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS / 15F TO 25F               
RANGE / OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF                  
STRONG WINDS ALOFT / 25 TO 35 KTS PER 00Z SOUNDING AT GTF / WERE                
RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS                   
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW RELATIVE                         
HUMIDITIES. THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MIXED LAYER BECOMES                      
SHALLOWER...EXPECT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE               
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. A              
VERY WINDY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING               
OF A SURFACE LOW DUE TO (1) INTENSE HEATING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA              
AND (2) ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING DRY PACIFIC TROUGH                  
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTED FROM THE              
PRIMARY TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PARTICULARLY              
STRONG OVER CENTRAL MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY              
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO FURTHER AID IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE                  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG                   
WARNING. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.              
THE OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN THE ISSUANCE OF A             
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN              
INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO              
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CONUS. A 300 MB JET CORE OF 95 KTS IS                    
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WITH 75 TO 85 KTS              
OF 300 MB FLOW DEPICTED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.                  
INTERESTINGLY...THE 500 MB JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED RIGHT             
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...WITH 60 TO 65 KTS FORECAST             
PER THE NAM AND GFS. COMPARING THE POTENTIAL WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY               
WITH THAT YESTERDAY (WEDNESDAY)...RUC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING 45 TO 50             
KTS AT 500 MB WHEN SURFACE WINDS WERE MEASURED AROUND 50 KTS                    
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...ALONG              
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. WINDS AT 700 MB               
PER RUC ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY WERE INDICATED AT 25 TO 35                       
KTS...WHILE FORECAST NAM/GFS/ECMWF WINDS AT 700 MB FOR FRIDAY ARE AT            
40 TO 50 KTS. FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT BY LATE MORNING...WITH LOW             
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY FORCING HIGH                   
MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR                
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK DO NOT SHOW ANY STRONG STABLE LAYERS ALOFT FOR            
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE MOUNTAIN WAVE PROPAGATION...SINKING                 
MOTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CERTAINLY AID IN TRANSFERRING                 
STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WHILE MIXING WILL BE REDUCED                 
SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS SHOW A            
SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE MIXING SOMEWHAT...MAINTAINING THE HIGH WIND               
THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY            
THAN WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR GEOMETRY IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW            
PATTERN...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH TO                
HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT 9 AM TO 6 PM            
MDT FRIDAY. FORECAST SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED               
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT FOR FRIDAY. ACOHEN                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 0450Z.                                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST                    
MONTANA. INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ABOVE 25000 FT AGL IN THE               
SOUTH  TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY             
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF NEAR 30                 
KNOTS...GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS NEAR KCTB...AND GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS                 
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE             
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IN VICINITY OF KBZN AND KLWT. WINDS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z.                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPDATED 0325Z.                                                                  
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN                   
SPEED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST               
MONTANA...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RISE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE           
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR...WITH MAXIMUM RELATIVE                  
HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. THE RED                
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELATIVE              
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER MUCH OF               
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FOR                  
MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE                 
REGION MID-DAY. THUS...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO              
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES. ALSO...ISOLATED                  
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND                   
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                  
ACOHEN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2008/                                             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER                
NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA OVERNIGHT. THIS                 
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING NEAR TO                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS               
MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ON                      
FRIDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE                           
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS AN                  
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED               
THERMAL RIDGE. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE WINDS ALOFT               
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WINDS BECOMING QUITE STRONG                   
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER A              
HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THERE. THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS              
BOTH THIS EVENING AND ON FRIDAY WARRANT FIRE WEATHER                            
HIGHLIGHTS...AND THESE CONCERNS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE                   
WEATHER SECTION BELOW. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH               
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL BRING               
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND              
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL THEN                   
APPROACH MONTANA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                                
SATURDAY...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING THE                   
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME                
UNSTABLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS              
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS                  
STRONG AS ON FRIDAY.  COULSTON                                                  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW               
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE                 
PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN MONTANA FOR SUNDAY AND                
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP                   
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                  
SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.                     
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE                   
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY                           
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING                          
HOURS...BUT AGAIN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED.                 
BRUSDA                                                                          
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO                  
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES               
ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL                   
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AT TIMES FOR ONLY A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER                  
THE MOUNTAINS. WILLIAMSON DC                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  86  53  91  52 /   0   0   0   0                                           
CTB  79  48  82  48 /   0   0  10   0                                           
HLN  89  56  93  58 /   0   0   0   0                                           
BZN  91  51  96  52 /   0   0  10  10                                           
WEY  80  47  84  47 /   0   0  10  10                                           
DLN  81  51  89  51 /   0   0  10   0                                           
HVR  85  50  93  53 /   0   0   0  10                                           
LWT  83  50  91  52 /   0   0  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR MTZ112>118.                   
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON                   
FOR MTZ009.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN                                                                  
SHORT TERM...COULSTON                                                           
LONG TERM...BRUSDA/WILLIAMSON DC                                                
AVIATION...LOSS                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA                 
TODAY AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR                 
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED              
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1215AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING CAT POPS AND FOCUS ON SCT               
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CNY AS                    
BREAKING CLOUDS ALLOWS THE LLEVELS TO WARM WHILE STRONG PVA ALONG               
WITH HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE FALLS ALOFT DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN. LAST                
PLACE TO DESTABILIZE WILL BE NE PA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON THE                
LONGEST...BUT EVEN HERE...SCT ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET BY                 
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A TAD BASED ON CURRENT                   
TRENDS. NEW GRIDS/PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                                             
AS OF 915AM...SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE CROSSING THE CWA ATTM AS               
VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER LAKE ERIE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE                     
DEVELOPING NE CONUS TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO DEVELOP MORE OF A                    
NEUTRAL TILT THIS MORNING...WITH GOOD PVA/QVEC CONVERGENCE                      
OVERHEAD. CLEARING IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN                
ZONES BEHIND THIS FIRST AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AND THIS IS A LITTLE                  
DISCONCERTING AS IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME LATE                          
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING TO COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY                 
FALLING TEMPS ALOFT. EXPECT FIRST BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO CLEAR MY                
EASTERN ZONES BY 18Z...BUT WITH SOME SUN IN IT/S WAKE...EXPECT SCT              
SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/RUC PROFILES SUGGEST                 
MAIN QUESTION ABOUT HOW ROBUST THE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE IS HOW                 
MUCH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...AND WHETHER THIS HEATING CAN                      
OVERCOME SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING. SVR POTENTIAL NOT GREAT THIS              
AFTERNOON GIVEN VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE                
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...FALLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASED                
HAIL THREAT.                                                                    
UPDATED POPS THIS MORNING TO BOOST MORNING POPS...AND THEN DROP                 
TO SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. SHWRS AND TRWS              
OVER WRN NY AND PA ALREADY MVG INTO THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG               
WITH BKN TO OVC CLDS WILL HELP LIMIT HTG DURING THE DAY AND THUS                
LIMIT PTNL FOR SVR. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND DECENT MID LVL                  
WIND PROFILE...LACK OF BLDG ENERGY WILL INHIBIT SVR. XCPTN COULD                
BE OVER THE FAR SE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF HTG COULD ALLOW FOR                 
SOME STRONGER ISLTD CELLS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
UPR LOW LINGERS OVER NRN NEW ENG THRU THE PD. THIS COLD POOL ALOFT              
SHD BRING SOME SCT SHWRS TO NRN AND ERN NY...AND PERHAPS IN THE                 
NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. GOOD LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL                   
LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS...AND RDGG OVER THE WRN ZONES SHD                    
INHIBIT SHWRS THERE. OTRW...GNRLY DRY CONDS WITH COOLER AND DRIER               
AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU THE PD. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT                 
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND GRIDDED DATA NEEDED LTL ADJUSTMENT. GNRLY            
FLWD MAV GUID FOR TEMPS WITH A BLEND TWRD THE PRVS FCST.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE NE U.S. TROF                 
BY LATE WEEK...WITH POS PNA PTRN MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON.               
S/WV`S ROTATING THRU THIS BUCKLING FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTNL TO                  
SET OFF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AT ANY TIME...BUT BEST CHCS                
ATTM APPEAR TO BE WITH STRONGER WAVES PROGGED FOR TUES NGT/WED AND              
AGAIN ON FRI. TEMPS WILL AVG A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS PD. HPC                  
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEEKS WERE MADE.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THIS AFTN...TSRA MAINLY CNTRL AND NRN NY AFFECTING RME/SYR/ITH                  
WTIH MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THRU THE                   
AFTN. LATER TNGT, MOIST AND COOLER NNW FLOW DVLPS WITH MDLS SHOWING             
SATURATION OF LOWEST LVLS AT MOST SITES AFTER 06Z. NOTED LOW CLDS               
AND CIGS IN THE 0.5-1K FT RNGT EARLIER THIS MRNG OVER PORTIONS OF               
MI, AND BELIEVE THIS POTNL EXITS TNGT ACRS THE BGM CWA...AIDED BY               
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN TIER. MVFR FCST FOR MOST SITES AFTER                  
06Z....WITH PSBLTY OF IFR AT BGM/ITH AND RME TWDS DAYBREAK. MOST                
SITES SHUD BREAK OUT TO VFR BY LATE SUN MRNG. WINDS LGT AND GNRLY               
OUT OF THE NW THRU TNGT...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON SUN                   
MRNG.                                                                           
SUN NGT THRU TUES...VFR BUT POTNL FOR DENSE EARLY MRNG VLY FOG AT               
ELM.                                                                            
TUES NGT/WED...POTNL FOR SCT MVFR IN TSRA.                                      
THU...VFR.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DGM/JMA                                                             
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
208 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO NEW YORK AND                     
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT                  
LAKES, WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INTO OUR                
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...HAVE ONLY NEEDED TO              
MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING SKY COVER AS STRATOCU FROM BGM NORTH               
AND EAST IS PRETTY PERSISTENT EARLY THIS AM. AS THE MORNING                     
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT...WITH NAM/RUC LLEVEL RH PROGS              
AND CU RULE PROGS SUGGESTING THE SAME. WILL KEEP SKIES PSUNNY FOR               
THE DAY FOR ALL BUT NE PA AS PLENTY OF CU WILL HANG AROUND.                     
AS FOR SHRA CHANCES...12Z BUF/ALB RAOBS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN                 
PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS. CURRENT 500HPA ANALYSIS INDICATES A                    
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PA ATTM. HOWEVER...ALOFT WE/LL                 
ACTUALLY FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET MAX              
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...LLEVEL MOISTURE WILL               
BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. FINALLY... GIVEN THAT WE WERE ONLY ABLE TO              
GENERATE A FEW SHRA WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY                       
AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT WITH NO ADDITIONAL LLEVEL FOCUS...WE WILL                 
REMAIN DRY TODAY. SO...HAVE CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIP MENTION IN                 
THE ZONES.                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE INTO NY LATE                   
TONIGHT. SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF BASE WILL SLIDE                   
THROUGH NY AND PA SATURDAY, WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM               
THE UL COLD POOL.                                                               
WEAK WIND FIELD AND LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE (ABOUT 500-800 J/KG)               
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. TIMING IS ALSO AN ISSUE, AS              
THE BEST LIFT IS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT SPC RISK AREA                
JUST SOUTHEAST OF FA LOOKS GOOD. WOULDN`T EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT                
OVER UPSTATE NY AND NORTHEAST PA UNLESS SYSTEM SLOWS APPRECIABLY                
AND COMES THROUGH AT MAX HEATING. EVEN THEN, IT WOULD BE WORKING                
WITH WEAK KINEMATICS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
AFTER SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE POS PNA PTRN               
IS XPCTD TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AS                        
USUAL...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/WV`S DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME                      
RNG..BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST POTNL WILL BE WITH STRONGER                     
SYSTEMS ON WED AND FRI. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLD TO WDLY SCT              
ACTIVITY ON ANY GIVEN DAY WITH THIS DVLPNG PTRN. FOLLOWED HPC                   
CLOSELY AS TEMPS AND POPS LOOKED GOOD.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HRS....THEN MVFR TO PSBLY              
IFR CONDITIONS ON SAT MRNG AS IMPRSV S/WV ROTATES THRU WITIH                    
ATTENDANT PCPN. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ELM LATER             
TNGT WILL BE DUE TO APRCHG PCPN...AS CROSSOVER TEMP IN THE U50S AND             
INCRSNG CLD DECK LATER TGNT SHUD INHIBIT FORMATION OF DENSE VLY                 
FOG. XPCT PCPN TO SPREAD EWD GNRLY AFTER 11Z WTIH MVFR CONDITIONS               
MOST AREAS...AND POTNL FOR IFR SPCLY ON THE HILLTOPS. ELM/SYR MAY               
SCATTER OUT BEFORE 18Z TMRW.                                                    
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT NGT...POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS LATE ALL AREAS IN -SHRA...GNRLY AFT 06Z.          
SUN...PSBL MVFR IN THE MRNG...OTRW VFR.                                         
SUN NGT THRU TUES...VFR BUT POTNL FOR DENSE EARLY MRNG VLY FOG AT               
ELM.                                                                            
TUES NGT/WED...POTNL FOR SCT MVFR IN TSRA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
146 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND                
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE               
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED           
BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST                  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OFF                 
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING... WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR               
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. PATCHY CLOUDS WILL LINGER              
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT... WITH THE NAM/RUC MOISTURE                   
FIELDS INDICATING SOME 2 TO 4 KFT BASED SC CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT                  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
FRIDAY...H5 HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE                 
TROF WHILE NORTHWEST SFC FLOW CONTINUES. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
AND INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR SCT/BKN CUMULUS BUT MID LEVEL CAP WILL              
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY                
EXCEPT FOR NRN CWA WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED DURING THE                
AFTERNOON. MAXES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 80.                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...NEXT H5 TROF DROPS INTO REGION LATE FRIDAY              
NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO CROSS AREA ON SATURDAY. NAM                    
FURTHER NORTH WITH FEATURE THAN GFS WITH ECMWF LEANING TOWARD THE               
NAM. CONTINUED WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHC               
POPS ON SATURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS MAXES WILL ONLY REACH                
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD                
END AS FORCING PULLS WELL EAST OF FA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY                  
CLOUDY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.                                         
SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM THE UPR GREAT LAKES TO OHIO VLY WILL                
BUILD EAST INTO REGION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH CHC POPS               
DURING THE AFTERNOON FAR NRN CWA WHERE H5 COLD POOL IS STRONGEST.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EXTENDED.                 
HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM HPC WHICH LEANS MORE TOWARDS A                      
GFS/GEFS BLEND VS. THE ECMWF. ANOMALOUS EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT                
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY                  
BEFORE EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING TRIES TO REDEVELOP BY LATER NEXT                 
WEEK.                                                                           
NICE ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES               
ON TUESDAY. THE DETAILS ON WHEN THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND                 
HOW FAR SOUTH IT SETTLES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON                    
PRECIP THIS COMING WEEK. HAVE CARRIED CHC POPS TUESDAY AND                      
WEDNESDAY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY...DROPPING               
TO SCHC ON THURSDAY AS AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE               
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO DRY THINGS OUT SOME.                            
AS FOR TEMPS...MONDAY LOOKS SEASONABLE /NEAR 80F/. TEMPS WILL WARM              
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY                
BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND                  
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DVLP OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALTHOUGH WITH A                
FEW MID CLDS ARND...CONDS SHD NOT GET TO LOW...MSTLY STAYING IN                 
THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR RANGE AT ELM.                                              
FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY FRI LVG VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE              
TAF PD.                                                                         
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHC MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA ALL SITES...ESP AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
SATURDAY...CHC MVFR SHRA ESP THROUGH NOON OVER CNY SITES WITH VFR               
AT AVP.                                                                         
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM.                     
OTHERWISE VFR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RRM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MSE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RRM                                                                
LONG TERM...JMA                                                                 
AVIATION...DGM/MSE                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREA OF TSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NCNTRL NDAK WHERE 50KT LLJ AND                   
+50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXISTS. RUC SHOWS AXIS OF INSTABILITY                 
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FA LATE THIS MORNING. INCREASED                
POP IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE           
BEHIND SW TO HELP DISSOLVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. NEEDED TO CHANGE TEMP             
CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS INSOLATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...                 
STILL KEEPING INHERITED MAX TEMP FORECAST AS THERMAL AXIS REMAINS               
CENTERED OVER FA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...TSRA LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO NW AND FAR NORTHERN FA AS               
AREAS TO THE SOUTH UNDER STRONG CAP. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WITH                
ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VSBY UNDER STRONGER STORMS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND                     
TEMPERATURES. MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH PERIOD. GFS HORRIBLE                       
INITIALIZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WILL USE NAM IN SHORT TERM AND               
BLEND THERE AFTER.                                                              
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL MONITOR CONVECTION ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER             
FOR EARLY MORNING MENTION. CELLS OUT RUNNING FAVORED CONVERGENCE                
WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO PROPAGATING INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND            
WEAKENING TRENDS HAVE BEEN NOTED.                                               
LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT INSTABILITY/CAPE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE              
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND REMAINS STATIONARY               
OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS HOWEVER WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG              
CAP IN PLACE LIMITING CONVECTION POTENTIAL AT LEAST ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN FA. WITH INSTABILITY AXIS STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS              
SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH FAVORED LOCATION OVER                
WESTERN/NORTHERN FA. ALSO LATER TONIGHT LOW LEVEL JET UNIMPRESSIVE              
WITH ANY CONVERGENCE EITHER WELL NORTH IN CANADA OR TO OUR SOUTH.               
FOR THIS WILL KEEP POPS LOW. WITH INCREASED MIXING...THERMAL RIDGE              
SHIFTING OVER FA AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD                 
RANGE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AND REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE               
MOIST FLUX ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO FA.                                    
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AS               
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFT OVER FA. REGION ALSO COMES UNDER            
EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX FOR UPPER SUPPORT. CURRENT POPS IN ORDER AT            
THIS POINT BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF TRENDS CONTINUE.                     
CONVECTION WHICH DOES OCCUR SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK AS AIRMASS                 
STABILIZES AND LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH.                 
COLUMN COOLS SLIGHTLY BUT CLOUDS WILL HAVE BIGGEST IMPACT ON                    
TEMPERATURES. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST                        
TEMPERATURES RIDE. NW FA WILL SEE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND LOW               
LEVEL DRYING FOR COOLEST TEMPERATURES.                                          
ON MONDAY BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH WITH MAIN FORCING AND INSTABILITY               
ACROSS SD/S MN. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ALSO SHOWING GENERAL                    
DOWNGLIDE SO NAM QPF SEEMS TOO FAR NORTH AND FAVOR GFS SOLUTION AND             
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.                                                             
REMAINDER OF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL             
POSSIBLY SECOND HALF OF WORK WEEK WHEN STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS                
THROUGH FA. MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED IN LONGER RANGE.                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JK                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA                
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN                     
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION                   
MONDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD              
BRUSH NORTHWEST PA THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WERE OVER                      
MICHIGAN AND THEY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING.                 
THE FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC TODAY AND A LITTLE VORT WILL MOVE                     
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC AGREE               
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 17Z. KEPT                
THE THREAT EAST OF CLE AND CAK...THERE SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH                      
MOISTURE AND CAPE.                                                              
THE AIRMASS IS TRYING TO DRY OUT ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO THIS                 
AM...DID NOT MENTION DENSE FOG IN ZONES/GRIDS...THIS WILL HAVE TO               
BE MONITORED.                                                                   
WENT CLOSER TO THE MOS MAV NUMBERS FOR THE HIGHS...THE GRIDDED MOS              
SEEMED TOO WARM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11C                     
TONIGHT. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN THE                     
EASTERN AREAS...THE WEST SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH A NORTH WIND              
THE LAKESHORE AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS.                   
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY                   
SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN AREAS AND EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A                
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO MAV MOS GUIDANCE.     
PUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL               
SYSTEM MOVING IN. BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE                
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
BY WEDNESDAY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING                
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY             
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH                 
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT. ALSO...UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING              
DOWN INTO THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE WITH CLDS AND SHOWERS             
WOULD NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY UNTIL UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE AREA.              
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
COLD FRONT THROUGH SITES THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW                       
DEVELOPING. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MID                 
AFTERNOON SO WITH CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA MENTIONED SOME BKN              
CLDS MAINLY EAST CLE AND MFD. DURING AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY BKN CU               
ALONG LAKESHORE MAY ACTUALLY PUSH INLAND ALLOWING LOCATIONS SUCH                
AS CLE TO BECOME SCT. ALSO TODAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD              
INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA TONIGHT.                  
WITH THAT LOOKING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER ABOUT 01Z TONIGHT.               
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR               
WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR AFTER 08Z SUN. GIVEN SOME REASONABLE                     
CONFIDENCE ESP FOR PLACES LIKE FDY AND MFD...JUST MENTIONED A                   
PREDOMINATE GROUP FOR VSBYS COMING DOWN TO MVFR LATE IN PERIOD.                 
FOR EACH SITE DISPLAYED CONFIDENCE MEASURE ON THIS OCCURRING BY                 
THE ASSIGNED VSBY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE LOCATIONS SHOWN BY MENTIONING              
PREDOMINATE 3SM BR WHILE KEPT EASTERN SITES AT 5SM BR.                          
OUTLOOK...VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.               
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT IN THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING             
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS            
AND WAVES TO PICK UP IN THE 2 TO 4FT RANGE FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT            
AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS HIGH BUILDS              
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY                    
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE. NO HEADLINES                    
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA                                                             
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...ABE                                                                 
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
MARINE...ABE                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1007 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...WE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN               
YESTERDAY. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH TO ARRIVE AT HIGH TEMPS              
1 OR 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THOUGH NOT A LARGE                
CHANGE...IT DOES PUSH MORE OF THE REGION ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS                 
AFTERNOON. RAOBS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP CLOSE TO THE NAM                 
FORECAST VALUES...WHICH WOULD PUT HEAT INDICES RIGHT AT 105 FOR A               
LOT OF THE REGION. GIVEN THAT THIS...AND DURATION OF THE HEAT ARE               
BOTH CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY...WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK              
AT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
RISE...BUT HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL...RESULTING IN BORDERLINE                  
CRITERIA BY THE NUMBERS...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING STRESS               
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                                   
ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO A SMALL PART OF WESTERN                  
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT TROUGH AXIS WAS REFLECTED               
AT SURFACE FROM BENJAMIN TO WICHITA FALLS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN                  
OKLAHOMA. AT MID LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE TROUGH...MOISTURE...AND                 
LIFT WERE LOCATED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE NAM AND RUC INDICATE                 
JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...THAT STORMS                   
FORMING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MAY PROPAGATE TOWARD A                         
BLUEGROVE...BENJAMIN LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING.                                   
&&                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL                          
ROCKIES...WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL                   
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP                   
HUMIDITY LEVELS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA WHICH                  
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. HUMIDITY              
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A                          
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS. THE HEAT WILL LAST                
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL ISSUE SPS CONCERNING THE               
UPCOMING HEAT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100  74 102  76 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK        103  75 104  77 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX 103  78 104  77 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK          102  70 102  73 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     99  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         99  75  99  74 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
143 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY           
AND STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEFORE                    
DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST              
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE                 
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...I/VE RAISED POPS INTO            
THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER A GOOD BIT OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT            
AND THE UPSTATE AND NW PIEDMONT OF SC. THE RUC TAKES A SHORT WAVE               
ACROSS THE FA FROM 18 TO 21 UTC. IT GENERATES GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE             
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND INITIATES CONVECTION BY AROUND 17 UTC ALONG             
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CAE POINTED OUT THAT THE                  
EXPERIMENTAL SEA BREEZE WRF RUN FROM NSSL DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR.               
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP CONVECTION...IT/S                
ORIENTATION ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT IS SIMILAR TO THE            
OTHER MODELS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH SUBCLOUD TEMP/DWPT DEPRESSIONS            
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AND WITH MODERATE THETA-E                       
LAPSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS IS HIGH TODAY. THOUGH STORM              
MOTIONS OVER 10 KTS MAY DELAY THIS PROCESS A BIT UNTIL CONVECTION               
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED...WHICH I THINK IT WILL...THOUGH BY THAT TIME            
IT MIGHT BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR RAH AND CAE. THE MID SHIFT HAD ALL             
THIS WELL IN HAND...AND ALL I REALLY DID WAS INCREASE POPS IN THE               
AREAS WHERE IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
AT 110 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS            
THE HEAT...AS MID LVL RIDGING HOLDS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.                  
MONDAY WILL START OUT A LITTLE DRIER THANKS TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW              
AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING (DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S). AMONG THE                   
NAM/GFS/SREF/ECM...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE A SFC TROF               
WILL SET UP BETWEEN A HIGH OVR THE OH VLY AND A BERMUDA HIGH TO THE             
SE. THE TROF WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...AS AREA TO            
THE S WILL BE UNSTABLE...WHILE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN             
FROM THE N. FOR NOW...I JUST ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE HIGH                  
TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA.                                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE HOT...AS H85               
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLC.                   
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAK RETURN FLOW                   
STARTING LATE MONDAY...ALLOWING DEWPTS TO SLOLY CREEP UPWDS. MAX                
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 90S BOTH DAYS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.             
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE TUESDAY               
AND 103-108 RANGE WEDNESDAY. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH HPC MEDIUM                 
RANGE HEAT INDEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.            
POPS WILL STILL BE MEAGER BOTH DAYS...WITH SLGT CHC IN THE MTNS TUES            
AFTN...AND ACRS ENTIRE CWFA WEDNESDAY AFTN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GOING INTO                            
WEDNESDAY...SMALL DIFFERENCES APPEAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE 12Z                
ECMWF.  THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT FASTER SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA                
EARLY THURSDAY AND THE EC HAS THE FRONT JUST REACHING THE NC                    
MOUNTAINS BY MID DAY THURSDAY.  AT ANY RATE...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION            
WILL BE SMALL WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                      
THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL                         
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE CLOUD OVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY            
THE HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN A FEW DEGREES.  AS THIS FIRST FRONT                 
STALLS OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GOING INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE NC              
MOUNTAINS.  THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING INTO NEXT                    
WEEKEND.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AS WE WILL BE NEAR            
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
A FEW TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NC MTNS. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY                
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT NC MTN AND              
FOOTHILL TAF SITES AS WELL AS KGSP AND KGMU. THUNDERSTORMS THIS                 
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LOT OF WIND...SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT            
FOR AT LOCAL AIRFIELDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SW THIS              
AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR KAVL AND KHKY WHICH ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE            
LEE TROUGH. INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT MANY SITES TONIGHT PER THE HIGHER              
MOS PROBABILITIES. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH BETTER FOR FOG AT ANY SITES             
THAT SEE SOME RAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH                        
TOMORROW...THOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH                 
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                         
OUTLOOK...BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL LAST FROM SUNDAY                
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LITTLE FOG AND HAZE IS LIKELY IN THE                         
MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. CHANCES OF TSTMS WILL IMPROVE ON                 
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY                                                              
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...DEO                                                                 
AVIATION...MCAVOY                                                               
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
738 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS                
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL WEAKEN. AN UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD            
FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
RUC INDICATES AXIS OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
VORTICITY MAXIMUM HAVE MOVED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA              
AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
TROUGH... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT AIR MASS CONDUCIVE ONLY                
TO THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED CUMULUS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AROUND               
SUNSET. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH ONLY                    
SCATTERED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND HAZE TOWARD                    
DAYBREAK. BUILDING RIDGE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND RATHER VIGOROUS              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND EASTERN CANADA TROUGH WILL DRIVE              
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY                   
SATURDAY. NAM... GFS... AND SREF ARE REASONABLY CLOSE IN SUGGESTING             
THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z                  
SATURDAY THEN PROGRESS INTO EASTERN ZONES DURING AFTERNOON. MOISTURE            
IS NOT PARTICULARLY ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT DAYTIME HEATING            
WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION              
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING LATTER PART OF THE DAY.                       
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE A BLEND OF                   
CURRENT FORECASTS AND 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                           
AT 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
OVERALL UPR PAT FOR DAYS 3-5 (SUN-TUE). BASICALLY AN UPR RIDGE                  
CENTERED OVR THE SRN PLAINS STATES AND AN ANOMALOUS H5 VORTEX OVR SE            
CANADA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THRU THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE EASTERN            
SEABOARD WILL BE UNDER DRY NW UPR FLOW...WITH A WEAK SFC HI OVR                 
GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY AND A BERMUDA HI EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP                 
SOUTH. BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS...THERE WILL BE A TROUGH LINGERING             
ALONG THE EAST COAST DOWN TO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA AREAS. PREV MODEL RUNS            
PRETTY MUCH AGREED ON KEEPING THE BNDRY S OF OUR CWFA THRU                      
MONDAY...WITH DRY NLY/NELY FLOW KEEPING THE AREA STABLE.                        
HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE BNDRY LIFTING N ACROSS              
GA/SC AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS INVOF NRN AL. SINCE THIS IS A NEW                 
TREND...I WENT WITH CONTINUITY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY WITH NLY/NELY              
FLOW THRU MONDAY. THE DRY LOW LVLS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY                   
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ABV AVG MAX TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL MINS                
WITH POCKETS OF BELOW NORMAL MINS IN THE MTN VLYS.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...BOTH THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE               
CHARACTERISTICALLY SOUND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.             
THE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH               
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS CHARTS                    
INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND            
MOVING INTO THE CWFA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO                
STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND BRING AN INCREASED                 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE            
WEEKEND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR                     
PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WHILE THE UPSTATE STANDS TO SEE             
A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE            
AVERAGE BY 5-10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND DROP BACK DOWN            
TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE            
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
FEW TO SCT SC/AC THIS EVE...SCT CI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR MVFR VSBY IN             
FOG AND HAZE 10-13Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN W TO SW 8-10KTS               
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH A                  
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTN-EVE. NOT A GREAT CHANCE BUT INCLUDED VCSH            
AND CB CLOUDS AT KAVL AFT 17Z.                                                  
OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING               
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH                 
MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY            
AND ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...LGL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...ARK                                                                 
AVIATION...RB                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT             
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE             
AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL WEAKEN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                  
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
RUC INDICATES AXIS OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
VORTICITY MAXIMUM HAVE MOVED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA              
AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
TROUGH... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT AIR MASS CONDUCIVE ONLY                
TO THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED CUMULUS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AROUND               
SUNSET. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH ONLY                    
SCATTERED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND HAZE TOWARD                    
DAYBREAK. BUILDING RIDGE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND RATHER VIGOROUS              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND EASTERN CANADA TROUGH WILL DRIVE              
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY                   
SATURDAY. NAM... GFS... AND SREF ARE REASONABLY CLOSE IN SUGGESTING             
THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z                  
SATURDAY THEN PROGRESS INTO EASTERN ZONES DURING AFTERNOON. MOISTURE            
IS NOT PARTICULARLY ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT DAYTIME HEATING            
WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION              
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING LATTER PART OF THE DAY.                       
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE A BLEND OF                   
CURRENT FORECASTS AND 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                           
AT 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
OVERALL UPR PAT FOR DAYS 3-5 (SUN-TUE). BASICALLY AN UPR RIDGE                  
CENTERED OVR THE SRN PLAINS STATES AND AN ANOMALOUS H5 VORTEX OVR SE            
CANADA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THRU THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE EASTERN            
SEABOARD WILL BE UNDER DRY NW UPR FLOW...WITH A WEAK SFC HI OVR                 
GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY AND A BERMUDA HI EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP                 
SOUTH. BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS...THERE WILL BE A TROUGH LINGERING             
ALONG THE EAST COAST DOWN TO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA AREAS. PREV MODEL RUNS            
PRETTY MUCH AGREED ON KEEPING THE BNDRY S OF OUR CWFA THRU                      
MONDAY...WITH DRY NLY/NELY FLOW KEEPING THE AREA STABLE.                        
HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE BNDRY LIFTING N ACROSS              
GA/SC AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS INVOF NRN AL. SINCE THIS IS A NEW                 
TREND...I WENT WITH CONTINUITY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY WITH NLY/NELY              
FLOW THRU MONDAY. THE DRY LOW LVLS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY                   
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ABV AVG MAX TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL MINS                
WITH POCKETS OF BELOW NORMAL MINS IN THE MTN VLYS.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...BOTH THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE               
CHARACTERISTICALLY SOUND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.             
THE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH               
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS CHARTS                    
INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND            
MOVING INTO THE CWFA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO                
STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND BRING AN INCREASED                 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE            
WEEKEND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR                     
PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WHILE THE UPSTATE STANDS TO SEE             
A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE            
AVERAGE BY 5-10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND DROP BACK DOWN            
TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE            
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CWA WILL SUPPORT ONLY SCATTERED                  
CUMULUS NEAR 5K FT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CUMULUS               
WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT            
PERIOD... EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS WITH GENERALLY VFR                       
VISIBILITY. AFTER 09Z SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND HAZE IS                   
POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT             
WILL PUT DAMPER ON POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR FOG                    
12Z TO 15Z... INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO                   
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AVL.                           
OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING               
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH                 
MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY            
AND ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...LGL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...ARK/JMS                                                             
AVIATION...LGL                                                                  
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
752 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VFR LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP BEHIND EXITING SHORT WAVE               
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH                
MIDNIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM...GFS...AND RUC ALL POINT TO              
THE CONVECTION IN MT COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION              
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM WAS THE FURTHEREST                    
SOUTH WHERE THE CAP WAS THE STRONGEST. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.               
TOOK OUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS FOR                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT A LITTLE YET.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY UNDER CLOUD COVER.                           
CURRENTLY...A TROF AXIS SITS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA               
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AROUND. THE CAP AT                
700HPA IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO CAA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS                     
COOLING FROM AROUND +17C TO +13C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH                 
COOLING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                         
SUPER CELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROF AXIS.                   
THERE IS ALSO 700HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850HPA MOISTURE                     
ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THIS EVENING. WHEN                
THE LOW LEVEL JET CATCHES UP TO IT...THE NOSE OF THE LL MAY HELP                
INDUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED SUPER CELLULAR                     
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES LATE THIS              
EVENING BEFORE THEY MOVE OFF INTO MINNESOTA. HAVE INSERTED T+RE+                
MENTION FOR THESE TO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE CONVECTION                  
OVER NORTH DAKOTA THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD              
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 700HPA WAA.                                           
LATE TONIGHT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE                
OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE A                 
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SE MONTANA/NW SOUTH DAKOTA WITH 850HPA               
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS POINTING RIGHT INTO              
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT WILL BE WORKING WED INTO THE                 
DAKOTAS. EXPECTING THIS STORM CLUSTER TO LATCH ONTO INSTABILITY                 
GRADIENT AT 850HPA OVER THIS CWA AND WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET               
SUPPORT SETS UP...RUMBLING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.              
T+RE+ MENTION FOR LATE TONIGHT INSERTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA               
ZONES WHERE 20 TO 40 POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH THIS PACKAGE TO                  
COVER POTENTIAL CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE MCS                           
DISSIPATES/PUSHES EAST INTO MN...WILL WATCH THE LOW LEVELS RESET                
ONCE AGAIN WITH LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                   
MONDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE MENTION AS OF YET...THOUGH...IN THE                   
GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                         
UNDERCUTTING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL TODAY.                
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING              
EDGE OF 850HPA MOIST TONGUE SLOWLY ADVECTING EAST...AND JUST NEVER              
FULLY DISSIPATED TODAY. AS SUCH...DID NOT SEE TRUE MAX T POTENTIAL              
OF MID/UPPER 80S ACHIEVED ACROSS SAID AREA. WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS              
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY              
COOLER 850HPA TEMPS TO MIX OUT ON AN ENE BOUNDARY LAYER                         
WIND...EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES                    
COOLER THAN TODAY.                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE FOR                 
THIS WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TRANSITIONING TO                      
NORTHWEST FLOW AS FAIRLY STRONG TROF DIGS INTO THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE REESTABLISHES. THIS PATTERN WILL                
ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND                
INTO THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
THROUGH THE LASTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES...BEST OPPORTUNITY IS EARLY IN PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW                   
ALOFT AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SKIRTING THE DAKOTAS. HAVE ADDED                 
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS            
BACKDOOR FRONT REINFORCES AN EARLIER CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDERGOING                
MODIFICATION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT AND DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE                    
AFFECTING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM THE WEST. WE                 
MAY SEE SOME TSRAS DEVELOP OUT ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...DONT FORESEE ANY TSRAS             
OR VICINITY THUNDER OCCURRING AT ANY ONE OF THE TAF STIES. WILL                 
WATCH AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOHR                                                                   
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...CONNELLY                                                            
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1058 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS AOK. DID DRAG THE ISO SHRA/TSRA               
20 POP FURTHER EAST TO MY EASTERN CWA BORDER FROM BETWEEN 15Z AND               
20Z AS THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS /WHICH ARE PRODUCING                   
MOSTLY VIRGA WITH CG LIGHTNING/ ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER DUE               
TO FAVORABLE 250HPA JET MAX POSITIONING OVERHEAD WORKING IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH ONGOING STRONG 700HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION AND                   
NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE 30 TO 40 KNOT LLJ OVERHEAD               
THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN SOME INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW STRATUS               
AND MID CLOUDS MIX OUT AND WORK EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING                    
STRONGER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO TAP THE LOW LEVEL JET                  
WINDS AND MIX THEM DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. AS                       
SUCH...RAMPED UP SURFACE WINDSPEEDS TO WINDY CATEGORY ACROSS THE                
EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS               
MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RIDING UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE/CAP              
INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. LLJ IS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT              
THE JAMES VALLEY WEST...WITH AN ACCAS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS                   
WESTERN SD. VERY WEAK ECHOES NOTED ON KUNR RADAR WITH A FEW                     
LIGHTNING STRIKES. 06Z NAM CATCHING ON TO THIS SOMEWHAT AND TRIES               
TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE                
NORTHWESTERN CWA. WILL THEREFORE ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS                  
THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING               
WITH RUC SHOWING 700 MB TEMPS FROM 15-17 C. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL                 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE                
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS CAP WILL BE                 
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A LID ON ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE                      
GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.                   
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH.                                 
WILL BE WATCHING FOR TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT              
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN                
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA ON THE NOSE                
OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OVERNIGHT. DID KEEP MENTION OF                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR EAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO              
SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OVER MINNESOTA WHERE BEST LLJ PLACEMENT                  
RESIDES. ANOTHER AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN                
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS A RIPPLE AT 500 MB MOVES                
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. HAVE INCREASED POPS                     
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY              
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE                
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NORTHERN                 
SOUTH DAKOTA TO CATCH THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THIS ACTIVITY...ON                
THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING               
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY                
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SFC FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS A                            
BIT...ALLOWING FOR MID LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL...STILL ONLY LOOKING AT              
30 POPS THOUGH FOR RIGHT NOW.                                                   
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE BY A FEW               
DEGREES IN THIS WARM PATTERN AS MAV HAS BEEN OVERDOING TEMPS THE                
PAST FEW DAYS.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
AGAIN TNT 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON LONG WAVE PATTERN.                
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS REASSERTING ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE                
FAIRLY STRONG TROF DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LIKE WAS MENTIONED              
IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS POSITIVE PNA LIKE PATTERN SHOULD                
ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND                
INTO THE CWA. AND THIS IS WELL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE                   
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPS VS THE GFS. IN ANY EVENT...NEAR                
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF               
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCES FOR                 
MEASURABLE PCPN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
15Z TAF UPDATE FOR KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS                        
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS                  
THROUGH TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON                    
EXPANDING AREA OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THIS STATE. BKN-OVC 1500 TO                 
2500FT AGL STRATUS LAYER IS DEVELOPING...AND WILL POTENTIALLY                   
IMPACT FLYING WEATHER AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING HAS A CHANCE TO BREAK IT              
UP. ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. MOST                  
CONVECTION IS SO WEAK AND SO ELEVATED THAT NO PRECIPITATION IS                  
REACHING THE GROUND. SOME CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING                             
LIGHTNING...THOUGH. KABR AND KATY TERMINALS ARE UNDER THE GUN TO                
EXPERIENCE THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH AROUND 19Z THIS                
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT /AT                
OR AFTER 03Z/ TO SEE THE NEXT CHANCES OF TSRA ACROSS EXTREME                    
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /KATY TERMINAL/ AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH               
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA /KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS/.                                 
ALSO...EXPECT SOUTH BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA TO PERSIST TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS STRONGER              
WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FURTHER               
EAST AT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS...THE BREEZY TO WINDY                       
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO REALLY GET GOING UNTIL                   
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ONCE THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN MIXED OUT.                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
424 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS               
MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RIDING UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE/CAP              
INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. LLJ IS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT              
THE JAMES VALLEY WEST...WITH AN ACCAS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS                   
WESTERN SD. VERY WEAK ECHOES NOTED ON KUNR RADAR WITH A FEW                     
LIGHTNING STRIKES. 06Z NAM CATCHING ON TO THIS SOMEWHAT AND TRIES               
TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE                
NORTHWESTERN CWA. WILL THEREFORE ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS                  
THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING               
WITH RUC SHOWING 700 MB TEMPS FROM 15-17 C. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL                 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE                
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS CAP WILL BE                 
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A LID ON ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE                      
GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.                   
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH.                                 
WILL BE WATCHING FOR TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT              
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN                
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA ON THE NOSE                
OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OVERNIGHT. DID KEEP MENTION OF                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR EAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO              
SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OVER MINNESOTA WHERE BEST LLJ PLACEMENT                  
RESIDES. ANOTHER AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN                
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS A RIPPLE AT 500 MB MOVES                
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. HAVE INCREASED POPS                     
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY              
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE                
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NORTHERN                 
SOUTH DAKOTA TO CATCH THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THIS ACTIVITY...ON                
THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING               
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY                
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SFC FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS A                            
BIT...ALLOWING FOR MID LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL...STILL ONLY LOOKING AT              
30 POPS THOUGH FOR RIGHT NOW.                                                   
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE BY A FEW               
DEGREES IN THIS WARM PATTERN AS MAV HAS BEEN OVERDOING TEMPS THE                
PAST FEW DAYS.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
AGAIN TNT 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON LONG WAVE PATTERN.                
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS REASSERTING ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE                
FAIRLY STRONG TROF DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LIKE WAS MENTIONED              
IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS POSITIVE PNA LIKE PATTERN SHOULD                
ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND                
INTO THE CWA. AND THIS IS WELL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE                   
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPS VS THE GFS. IN ANY EVENT...NEAR                
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF               
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCES FOR                 
MEASURABLE PCPN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS                  
THROUGH TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON                    
EXPANDING AREA OF STRATUS OVER NEBRASKA. THIS AREA MAY LIFT INTO                
THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT                  
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EAT AWAY AT THAT DECK...LEAVING SOME CUMULUS               
OR STRATOCUMULUS AOA 3K FEET FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS                
ACROSS BOTH THE MO AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
255 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY LINE              
STRETCHING FROM HULETT WY SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BLACK             
HILLS AND INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW            
CONTINUES EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH                  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER              
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING APPROACHING THE CWA. NAM/RUC BOTH CONTINUE                
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR               
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS. BIG QUESTION REMAINS            
WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAP INTO               
THE INSTABILITY. VIS SAT SHOWS VERY MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT EVEN OVER            
THE BLACK HILLS...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO 10 WITH MENTION OF A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE ONE OR TWO STORMS DO MANAGE              
TO DEVELOP. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MONTANA/NORTH            
DAKOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS              
EASTERN MONTANA AND SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT            
AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MAY BRING AN ISOLATED STORM TO FAR                   
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW                  
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.                             
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH DRIER NORTHERLY                
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 14-18C...A VERY WARM DAY            
IS EXPECTED WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING 95 TO 100            
DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER AIR WILL HAVE A HARDER               
TIME BREAKING THE CAP...BUT THE HILLS MAY STILL SEE ONE OR TWO                  
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SD BORDER. THERE MAY BE               
ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO ALLOW MORE MOIST AIR             
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. IF THIS HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE             
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND A WEAKER CAP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF              
THE CWA. WITH WAVES CROSSING THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS THE            
NORTH...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATER TOWARD            
THE EVENING HOURS.                                                              
EXTENDED...FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY NEXT                
WEEK WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH                   
AMERICAN FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE                 
SMALL CHANCES FOR TSRA EACH DAY...AS WEAK WAVES MOVE WITH THE MAIN              
JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. ANY ISOLATED TSRA             
THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.            
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/HELGESON                                                               
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY LINE STRETCHING               
FROM HULETT WY SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND              
INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES            
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS IN               
THE LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER WESTERN                   
WYOMING APPROACHING THE CWA ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                    
EVENING. NAM/RUC BOTH SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG THIS                
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS             
WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CAP. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE CAP              
WILL BE BROKEN OR NOT. THIS DOES SEEM MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE             
BLACK HILLS...SO HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS THERE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS TO THE REST OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WEST OF A LINE               
FROM FAITH TO PINE RIDGE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL HOLD                 
STRONG TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION [200 AM MDT]...AT 08Z SFC MAP SHOWS CLEAR SKIES                
WITH HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AS S-SE SFC RETURN FLOW                      
DEVELOPING ACRS AREA. ALOFT...FLAT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE            
WX ACRS NRN PLAINS.                                                             
TODAY/TONIGHT...S-SE FLOW WILL DVLP ACRS WRN SD ON BACKSIDE OF SFC              
HIGH PRES WITH INCREASING MSTR AND INSTABILITY ACRS REGION...700MB              
TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUITE A BIT PRODUCING A FORMIDABLE CAP.                
BEST INSTABILITY AND ML CAPE FM 1000-2000 J/KG WL BE OVER FAR WRN               
SD AND THE BLK HILLS...WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. THIS MAY COMBINE              
WITH WK MID LVL S/W TO PRODUCE SOME SCT TSTMS THIS AFT/EARLY THIS               
EVENING ACRS BLACK HILLS. TEMPS WL BE ABV NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS                
WELL INTO 90S AND A FEW PLACES ON SD PLAINS WILL PUSH 100.                      
LATER TONIGHT S/W MVG ACRS ERN MT/WRN ND MAY KICK OFF A TSTM OR                 
TWO ACRS NWRN SD...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF FA.                     
SAT/SAT NIGHT...SFC CDFNT WILL BE OVR FAR WRN SD AT 12Z SAT AND                 
PUSH ACRS FA DURING DAY...BEST INSTABILITY AND MSTR WILL BE AHEAD               
OF CDFNT...BUT AGAIN STRONG CAP SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION. WL               
CONT LOW CHANCE POPS IN BLACK HILLS WHERE ISOLD TSTM MAY BREAK                  
THROUGH CAP. MAY SEE A TSTM OR TWO IN NWRN SD SAT NIGHT AS AGAIN                
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO NORTH OF FA IN ERN MT/WRN ND.                                
ON SUNDAY...RIDGE WILL CONT TO DOMINATE WX WITH TEMPS AGAIN WELL                
INTO 90S TO NEAR 100. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY. MAY SEE SOME                   
TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                     
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE               
WORK WEEK AS A VARIETY OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL             
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO             
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS               
AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO FAR NE WYO               
AND PARTS OF FAR WRN SD THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
CONTINUE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WAS TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE              
OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES TO COVER ANY                 
OF THIS WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP ON THE                 
NOSE OF THE WANING LOW LEVEL JET WHERE 850HPA MOISTURE ADVECTION                
IS JUXTAPOSED WITH 700HPA THETA-E RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY                
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND                   
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STAYING UP IN              
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS LED              
TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD. NO OBS ACROSS THE ABR CWA                 
HAVE SEEN BR/FG YET BUT WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK                       
INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT WITH HIGHER                
DEWPOINTS...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE                
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS                
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER                 
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TODAY SO EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. A BIT                
MORE BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SD TODAY WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS                  
TIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND LLJ DEVELOPS                    
ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN EXAMINATION OF POINT                    
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL SMALL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE                      
RETURNING AT MID LEVELS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAS NOT              
BEEN HARD THIS SUMMER TO GET ACCUS DEVELOPING INTO LIGHT                        
THUNDERSHOWERS WITH THIS SETUP SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS MENTION OF                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH HAVE ADJUSTED AREA                 
JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND                
MOISTURE. KEPT THINGS CONFINED TO THE CWA BORDER NEAR FSD AS                    
POINTS FARTHER NORTH THAN THIS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE AND                   
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO SATURDAY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES              
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS 700 MB TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID TO                   
UPPER TEENS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT APPEARS THE AREA                  
WILL BE CAPPED FROM CONVECTION WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY ACROSS ND.                
MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING GOING SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE                    
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA ON THE EDGE OF CAP. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN               
DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE MCS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS                     
WESTERN MINNESOTA...DIVING SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT                 
THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SMALL CHANCE POPS ALONG THE                
EDGE OF CAP.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                      
00Z MODELS ARE IN AMAZING AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY                   
NOTEWORTHY CONSIDERING THE SEASON. THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY              
NIGHT TIME PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AS MID LEVEL               
PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES. ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN                    
ROCKIES FLATTENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AND THEN                   
DIVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES.                
PREDICTED MID LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN BY 144 HOURS LOOKS SOMEWHAT               
AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE FAIRLY DEEP TROF                 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CANADIAN AIR TO                    
FILTER SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND LASTING                    
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE                 
SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ALL IN ALL              
FAIRLY PLEASANT CONSIDERING ITS THE FIRST OF AUGUST.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GOOD VFR TO RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN                   
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND                   
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STAYING UP IN              
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS LED              
TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD. NO OBS ACROSS THE ABR CWA                 
HAVE SEEN BR/FG YET BUT WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK                       
INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT WITH HIGHER                
DEWPOINTS...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE                
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS                
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER                 
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TODAY SO EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. A BIT                
MORE BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SD TODAY WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS                  
TIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND LLJ DEVELOPS                    
ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN EXAMINATION OF POINT                    
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL SMALL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE                      
RETURNING AT MID LEVELS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAS NOT              
BEEN HARD THIS SUMMER TO GET ACCUS DEVELOPING INTO LIGHT                        
THUNDERSHOWERS WITH THIS SETUP SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS MENTION OF                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH HAVE ADJUSTED AREA                 
JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND                
MOISTURE. KEPT THINGS CONFINED TO THE CWA BORDER NEAR FSD AS                    
POINTS FARTHER NORTH THAN THIS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE AND                   
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO SATURDAY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES              
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS 700 MB TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID TO                   
UPPER TEENS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT APPEARS THE AREA                  
WILL BE CAPPED FROM CONVECTION WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY ACROSS ND.                
MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING GOING SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE                    
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA ON THE EDGE OF CAP. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN               
DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE MCS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS                     
WESTERN MINNESOTA...DIVING SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT                 
THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SMALL CHANCE POPS ALONG THE                
EDGE OF CAP.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                      
00Z MODELS ARE IN AMAZING AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY                   
NOTEWORTHY CONSIDERING THE SEASON. THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY              
NIGHT TIME PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AS MID LEVEL               
PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES. ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN                    
ROCKIES FLATTENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AND THEN                   
DIVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES.                
PREDICTED MID LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN BY 144 HOURS LOOKS SOMEWHAT               
AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE FAIRLY DEEP TROF                 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CANADIAN AIR TO                    
FILTER SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND LASTING                    
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE                 
SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ALL IN ALL              
FAIRLY PLEASANT CONSIDERING ITS THE FIRST OF AUGUST.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS                             
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE IF                 
ANY CLOUDINESS BELOW 10K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. VSBYS OUTSIDE OF                 
THAT PATCHY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE UNRESTRICTED THROUGH TNT.                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
902 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST                 
SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL              
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...RUC DEPICTS             
SCATTERED PRECIP REMAINING INTACT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES                   
TOWARD MORNING AND AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS DUE TO THIS                        
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND                
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  93  70  94  70 /  10  20  10   0   0    
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  91  68  92  68 /  20  30  10   0   0    
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  92  68  93  68 /  20  30  10   0   0    
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  89  62  90  62 /  20  40  10   0   0    
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LCM                                                                             
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
928 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC80 500MB HEIGHT               
ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW AND SHEAR AXIS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS                 
THIS MORNING. A WEAK 500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE WESTERN                
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP                
SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM12 PROGS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION               
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON               
BUT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. WILL MAKE                 
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON.                     
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LOOK O.K. FOR NOW.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SURFACE OBS SHOWED SOME LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING                
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. SOME SC THIS MORNING MOVING            
THROUGH HIDALGO, BROOKS AND PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG COUNTIES. THE LOWER            
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE UPPER VALLEY SHOULD FILL IN WITH CU            
THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS              
OF MVFR AND ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE TAF SITE FORECASTS LOOK               
GOOD SO NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTS A SSE WIND AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH              
SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FEET. MTRPIL REPORTS A SSE WIND AT 6 KNOTS. 500MB                
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THROUGH THE             
EASTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE            
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INTERACT WITH A TROUGH IN NORTHWESTERN               
TEXAS TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHEAST WIND. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT                 
RANGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.              
EXPECT MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE WILL REMAIN               
BELOW SCA LEVELS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008/                         
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY                      
COUPLED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA AND                    
NORTHERN TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS                  
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME                    
MODERATE AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL               
RELAX OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT              
AND MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS SUNDAY                    
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR               
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH               
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT               
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL VALUES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.              
MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN THIS MORNING WITH A SSE WIND AROUND 14               
KTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 3.5 FT. MTRPIL CHECKS IN WITH A SSE WIND                 
AROUND 10 KTS. 500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER                
MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL            
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER TX                     
COASTLINE. LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHEAR            
OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE                
EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT THIS FEATURE WEST TOWARDS THE TX                
COASTLINE. BOTH MODELS SHOW MORE OF A MID LEVEL FEATURE WITH NOT                
MUCH OF A SURFACE FEATURE. WILL SEE HOW FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS               
RESOLVE THIS FEATURE. EXPECT THAT MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER             
TX COASTLINE WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.                                      
AVIATION...11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SOME PATCHY               
SC AND FOG FORMING AROUND THE REGION. THESE WILL REDUCE CEILINGS AND            
VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING. THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING              
AND THE STRONGER S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL MIX OUT THE SC AND FOG                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR              
THE BULK OF THIS CURRENT TAF PERIOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  92  78 /   0   0   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  95  77 /   0   0   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            94  78  96  76 /   0   0   0   0                           
MCALLEN              96  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  80  88  80 /   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
PUBLIC/GRIDS...61                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...59/57                                                         
MESO/FXC...CAMPBELL/HART                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
938 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...TRYING TO REVIEW 00Z RAOBS AND LATEST OBSERVATION                     
AND MODEL DATA AND GET A FEEL FOR WHICH IS GOING TO WIN OUT ACROSS              
IOWA AND SRN MN TONIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE 650-850 MB LAYER OR             
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SATURATION SOMEWHERE IN THAT LAYER                     
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSRA. 01Z PROFILER AND 88D VWP DATA AROUND              
850 MB LEVEL HAVE SEEN ABOUT A 5KT INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS           
WESTERN IOWA IN A GENERAL S-SWRLY FLOW. THIS FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH            
A MORE S-SERLY FLOW FROM KRWF TO JUST EAST OF KDSM AT THIS TIME. THIS           
CAN BE SEEN ON SPC MESOA PAGE DEEP MCONVERGENCE PARAMETER /SFC-2KM              
AGL/. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AN INCREDIBLY STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT                 
EXISTS FROM -18C NEAR KDSM TO 20C AT KOMA AT 850 MB. THIS CONVERGENCE           
OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TOWARD ARX               
WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ARRIVING LATE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS             
WILL THAT VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR IN THE 650-850MB LAYER BE ABLE TO              
SATURATE IN MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IF THE BOTTOM OF THAT                
LAYER SATURATES...THERE IS STILL SOME NEGATIVE AREA TO OVERCOME FOR             
TSRA INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE AT CONVECTION MAY BE IF THE LAYER A              
BIT HIGHER SATURATES AS THE INHIBITION ABOVE THOSE PARCELS WILL BE              
LESS...AND SO WILL THE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. CURRENT ACCAS ACTIVITY             
IS BASED NEAR 550 MB PER KMPX SOUNDING AT 00Z. IF WE COULD PRODUCE              
SOME SHOWERY/VIRGA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NRN            
IOWA...IT WOULD ACT TO COOL THE WARM AIR LAYER SOME DIABATICALLY AND            
INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.                                                
THE 03.00Z NAM WRF HAS BACKED DOWN TO SHRA /VERSUS TSRA/                        
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND IT REALLY             
ONLY TOUCHES THE EXTREME WRN FORECAST AREA. LOCAL 03.21Z RUC                    
INITIALIZED WRF MODEL ONLY DEVELOPS LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ECHO ON THIS             
MOISTURE RETURN...A SIGN IT IS BATTLING THE WARM AIR ALOFT IT SEEMS.            
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE PULLED THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF                    
RIVER PRIOR TO 12Z AND TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT ACROSS NERN IA AND SERN           
MN. KEPT THE 50-60 PERCENT ON WESTERN EDGE PER COLLABORATED FORECAST            
WITH MPX/DMX.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
210 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN STORM THREATS NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE             
FLATTENS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.                                        
GORGEOUS EARLY AUGUST DAY CURRENTLY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND DRY               
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE. COMBINATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS              
AND ACCAS FIELD WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE             
WARM FRONT IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WIND AND VAD WIND                    
PROFILERS SUGGEST ABOVE FRONT AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND                  
CONVERGENCE. VERY STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO NOTED IN RUC             
MODEL IN THIS SAME ZONE...FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO EASTERN SOUTH                  
DAKOTA. THIS MOISTURE PUSH NORTHEAST WILL BE MAIN PLAYER AT SOME                
POINT TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM JUST WEST OF                
FORECAST AREA PERHAPS BY LATE EVENING AS CAP BREAKS DOWN. BETTER                
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES REMAIN WEST OF AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT SO              
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LACKING BUT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST            
SOME STRONG STORMS AND OUTSIDE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THROUGH THE              
OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.                                 
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST THEN ON SUNDAY BUT DETAILS AFTER            
THAT BECOME A BIT MORE SKETCHY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS                     
CONSISTENT ON IDEA OF LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA               
SETTING UP MORE ZONAL FLOW. LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE PROLONGED                
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.                 
COMBINED WITH NEARBY WARM FRONT...SHOULD SEE RAPID RECOVERY AND                 
DESTABLIZATION ON SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS            
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                
AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT APPROACHING ONTARIO...                    
COLDER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY IT APPEARS. STILL WILL                
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SETTING UP PERHAPS                
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT TREND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE             
FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO ADVECT IN AS NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER.             
TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS COULD BE QUITE WARM BUT PRECIPITATION                
TIMING AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM FROM GETTING TOO HIGH             
AND HENCE HAVE LOWERED FORECAST MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY.                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO ONTARIO AND             
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST U.S. IN LATER PERIODS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR                  
QUIETER AND COOLER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 02.00Z ECMWF RUN IS               
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN TIME                 
WHILE 02.06Z GFS/DGEX SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. ALTHOUGH PREFER               
ECMWF SOLUTION...EVEN WITH MODEL BLEND SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT            
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION THREATS TO THE SOUTH             
AND SOUTHWEST.                                                                  
COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW COULD GENERATE SOME MAINLY            
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT                   
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT AND MAY NOT INCLUDE               
SMALL CHANCES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN IN EARNEST              
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 03.06Z-03.12Z. AS A                
RESULT...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS TIME              
FRAME OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN IOWA. THESE SHOULD               
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KRST TAF SITE. ANY                 
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03.18Z SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEST             
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE HIGHEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN                
ADDITION...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE A FACTOR ON SUNDAY AT KRST...AS LOW             
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.            
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR AT THIS TIME...DUE TO            
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...SHEA                                                          
AVIATION..........THOMPSON                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
413 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CHANCE                
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING              
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS                        
FEATURE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED OVER                 
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO CANADA. RUC ANALYSIS               
INDICATED VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST                         
WISCONSIN...AND HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING                
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                           
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG IN EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS                
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.              
NAM/GFS HAVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SOUTHEAST TODAY...BRUSHING              
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GFS SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE              
ON EXPECTED LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAN THE                     
NAM...AND THEREFORE HAVE MUCH LESS CAPE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE IN THE EAST FROM MID MORNING ON...GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF               
PASSING VORTICITY MAXIMUM.                                                      
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE               
AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND                       
SATURDAY...BRINGING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. MAY SEE                  
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND                   
LIGHT WINDS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AWAY                  
FROM THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE NEAR THE              
LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS THERE COOLER.                                              
AS HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A 40 KNOT PLUS LOW                  
LEVEL JET POINTS TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE PERSISTS              
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH AT A WEAKER MAGNITUDE. GFS MORE BULLISH THAN                 
THE NAM ON EXPECTED INSTABILITY...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. NAM                
DOES BRING AN MCS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA                    
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH REMNANTS INTO SUNDAY. GFS WAS MUCH LESS                   
OPTIMISTIC ON QPF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS                      
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                      
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                   
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO CONTINUE               
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE                   
REGION MONDAY...THEN DROPPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY              
NIGHT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ON THE GFS ON                      
MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND                    
1000/500MB THICKNESSES RISING INTO THE LOWER 580S DKM.                          
WILL KEEP CHANCY WORDING IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR EXPECTED CAPE VALUES.               
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S FAHRENHEIT POSSIBLE IF GFS VERIFIES WITH                
ANY SUNSHINE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN...SHOULD LIFT BY              
14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLGT CHANCE FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS H5 S/W DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE              
GREAT LAKES. WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN TAF FOR KMKE OR KENW.                     
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...05/DAVIS                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
324 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                        
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH              
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. ALSO POTENTIAL MCS SATURDAY NIGHT              
AND EARLY SUNDAY ALSO A CONCERN.                                                
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN              
WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. WHILE PROFILER DATA SHOWING             
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS SLATER IOWA. CONVECTION               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT CONFINED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MOVING              
AWAY FROM THE AREA. MEANWHILE...FARTHER NORTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
SHOWING WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. UPPER SPEED MAX              
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED BY THE 01.06Z RUC RESULTING IN A                  
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH THE                
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINS...SURFACE REPORTS SHOWING FOG                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME OF THE RIVER                 
VALLEYS.                                                                        
01.00Z NCEP DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD               
SCALE FLOW. HOWEVER...RECENT PERFORMANCE ON MCS GENERATION AND                  
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN POOR. THUS CONFIDENCE MEDIUM FOR THE POTENTIAL                
MCS ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.                            
IN THE NEAR TERM...SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST             
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT              
MAIN BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW              
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED              
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AND               
WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST.                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER                   
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND             
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED           
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE GRIDS.                          
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW                     
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS. QUIET AND HOT WEATHER LOOKS               
TO BE THE RULE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND              
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. ENOUGH                   
INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.             
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS IOWA             
WITH 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE             
GFS AND NAM SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING ACROSS             
WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS THEN PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD            
THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THUS HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EVENING                
HOURS.                                                                          
QUESTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD              
COVER. BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH             
DECAYING MCS. MODELS SHOWING WARMING 850MB-700MB TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS MAY CAP OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POP AS A 12 HOUR BLOCK...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE            
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                          
FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL             
JET ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL                   
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE TIME FRAME.                                         
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CRACKING THE 90            
DEGREE MARK FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH                
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT               
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET.                                                    
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
BOTH THE 01.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN KEEPING FRONT NEAR THE AREA            
THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES IN THIS TIME FRAME.            
MODELS HINTING THAT THIS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY                 
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR ADVECT INTO               
THE AREA WITH MAIN CONVECTION BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT                
GRIDS SHOW A DECREASING POP TREND IN THIS TIME FRAME AND THIS LOOKS             
REASONABLE. THUS PLAN NO CHANGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE FOUND WEST OF AN EAU CLAIRE TO WISCONSIN DELLS             
LINE THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES IN THE                
RIVER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY IN RIVER               
VALLEYS TOO. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 9 AM.  AFTER THIS                 
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TODAY            
AND INTO THIS EVENING. VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT                
AFTER 02.06Z.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RABERDING                                                     
AVIATION..........BOYNE                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HEAT              
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS NOTED BY A 595 DAM HIGH OVER EASTERN                
KANSAS. RIDGING EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF THIS HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXISTS TO THE               
WEST OF THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO CENTRAL CANADA. BETWEEN              
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...MAIN SHRTWV OF NOTE IS IN SW MONTANA WHICH IS            
HELPING WITH CONVECTION IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NW SOUTH DAKOTA.                 
WEATHER IS QUIET OVER UPPER MI THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                 
AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS. DRY                  
AIRMASS PRESENT AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.85 INCHES AT             
GRB AND 0.74 INCHES AT APX. HIGHER MOISTURE IS FARTHER OFF TO THE               
SOUTH AND WEST...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.41 INCHES              
AT BIS...1.71 INCHES AT OAX AND 1.46 INCHES AT TOP. THESE HIGHER                
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH                
READINGS AROUND 70F.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE LOCATION OF MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND              
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUE.                                            
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER                 
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS UPPER                      
RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE CWA THANKS              
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING CLOSE BY...SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF              
THE CWA DRY. HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS COMING INTO WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE                     
RETURN...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO                   
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MN FROM SPREADING ONTO WESTERN LAKE                        
SUPERIOR...OR PERHAPS EVEN INTO IWD. OTHERWISE...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL            
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND                         
14C...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT LEAST INTO THE LOW                
80S. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY (OFF TO THE EAST IN LOWER MI) SUGGESTS                
FORMATION OF SOME LAKE BREEZES...WHICH COULD GET GUSTY OFF LAKE MI              
WITH ENHANCEMENT BY THE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...COOLER TEMPS ARE               
INDICATED FOR BOTH LAKE MI SHORELINE AND SOME IMMEDIATE LAKE                    
SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS.                                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO BECOME A            
BIT MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW STARTS PUSHING EAST.             
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN SW MONTANA IS PROGGED TO               
MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN BY 06Z AND INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z             
MON. THIS SHRTWV SHOULD HELP PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UPPER MI                 
EASTWARD...PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN THE LOW                 
LEVELS. THIS WARM ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING                   
IN...LIKELY MEANS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN            
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION DEPENDS HIGHLY ON FAR NORTH THE CAP FROM THE              
HEAT RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES NORTH...AS THE EDGE OF THIS              
CAP IS LIKELY WHERE THE MCS TRACKS ALONG. THE 00Z UKMET REMAINS                 
CONSISTENT WITH MANY OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM              
CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WI AND UPPER MI...SINCE IT BRINGS 850MB TEMPS OF            
20C OR GREATER TO A LINE FROM HINCKELY MN TO MADISON WI BY 06Z TUE.             
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN IS PRACTICALLY IDENTICAL TO THE UKMET. OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE UKMET...ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH.              
THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE FARTHER SOUTH...DEVELOPING THE MCS OVER SRN MN            
AND TRACKING IT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WI...WITH UPPER MI GETTING                
INTO THE NRN FRINGES OF THE PCPN FIELD. THE 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO               
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN...BUT SLOWER...TAKING AN MCS FROM CENTRAL MN              
INTO SRN UPPER MI BETWEEN 12-18Z MON. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE              
ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 50                    
POPS...GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN U.P.. NEXT SHIFT CAN DETERMINE                  
WHETHER TO RAISE POPS FURTHER ONCE MORE CERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON HOW               
FAR NORTH THE CAP LIFTS TODAY IN MN. WHEREVER THE MCS OCCURS...THERE            
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS                  
PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT SINCE FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH (14500            
FT OR HIGHER). SHOULD BE A WARM NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 60S.           
MONDAY...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT             
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MEANS SOME WEAK                
RIDGING MAY GET BUILT UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND THUS                
PROVIDE SOME CAPPING AND SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE              
FORECAST TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE                  
MORNING FORECAST IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME AS IT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON              
THE LOCATION OF TONIGHTS MCS. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...              
HAVE WENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN U.P. WHICH SHOULD BE                 
CLOSE TO OR POSSIBLY ON THE MCS TRACK (NOTED BY THE 00Z GFS).                   
ANOTHER REASON FOR LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS THAT THE AREA             
SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME HEATING UP DUE TO CLOUD COVER OFF THE                 
MCS...NO MATTER WHERE THE MCS IS. GUIDANCE TEMPS COOLED DOWN...AND              
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN EVEN SHOWS HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. THEREFORE...             
TWEAKED THE HIGHS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO LOW            
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPS IN THE AFTN ARE 14-16C...WHICH WITH ANY SUN              
COULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WERE                  
COOLED...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BIT HUMID AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS                
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFT INTO UPPER MI.                                           
MON NIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS INDICATED TO MOVE                
INTO NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CWA             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE STILL LEFT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THESE                
HEIGHT FALLS...BUT AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN CHANCES GIVEN               
TIME OF DAY. MODELS REFLECT THIS BY SOME NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AND             
OTHERS ONLY SOME LIGHT QPF. TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE ON THE MILD SIDE              
GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAT MOVED IN ON MONDAY.                             
TUE...WEATHER IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING. SHRTWV TROUGH IN               
NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO IS NOW PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO DIG DOWN INTO             
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ANOTHER SHRTWV CURRENTLY ON            
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS DIGGING IS              
REPRESENTED BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 80                     
METERS...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM. GIVEN THE TIMING OF               
THE SHRTWV COMING DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH                  
MOVING THROUGH...DEWPOINTS STILL BEING HELD UP IN THE LOW TO MID 60S            
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE            
MORNING (HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE                   
SHORELINES)...EXPECTING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO                
INCLUDE COVERAGE WORDING. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF                
40-45 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SOME SEVERE WEATHER              
SEEMS POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY NOT BE THAT GREAT OF HAZARD WITH HIGH                  
FREEZING LEVELS AGAIN...HOWEVER HIGH SURFACE TO 10000 FT DELTA                  
THETA-E VALUES (AROUND 25) AS A RESULT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING              
IN SUGGESTS A DEFINITE ISSUE FOR WIND. SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE                    
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THE WESTERN U.P. STARTS DRYING OUT              
WHEN THE SHRTWV MOVES IN. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN              
U.P. IN A SEVERE RISK.                                                          
TUE NIGHT AND WED...DRYING WILL COME INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT BEHIND              
TUE AFTNS SHRTWV. THEREFORE GOING DRY FORECAST IS ON TRACK. IN                  
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO MOVE IN. WAS TEMPTED TO LEAVE THE             
FORECAST DRY FOR WED AS WELL...HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING THROUGH UPPER MI AS THE BEGINNINGS OF AN UPPER            
TROUGH FORM OVER SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND             
GFS SHOW THIS SHRTWV...BUT ONLY THE GFS PRODUCES PCPN. THE PCPN AREA            
IS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL U.P. DURING THE AFTN DUE TO LAKE BREEZE              
CONVERGENCE. MODIFIED SOUNDING FROM THE AREA WHERE PCPN IS PRODUCED             
TO REMOVE THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINT BIAS STILL SUGGESTS AROUND 500              
J/KG (INSTEAD OF THE 900 J/KG). THEREFORE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND                   
INCLUDED A 20 POP. OTHER PCPN MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
DURING THE AFTN OFF THE MN ARROWHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV.            
GOING TEMP FORECAST FOR WED SEEMED REASONABLE.                                  
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND WED. STILL LOOKS LIKE UNSEASONABLY COOL            
WEATHER TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO 6-8C.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTS E OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...DRY LOW-LEVELS             
WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU THIS FCST             
PERIOD AT KCMX/KSAW. NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD...APPROACHING             
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SHRA/TSRA TO KCMX. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN              
LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN RIGHT            
NOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION              
AND WHAT IT WILL DO WITH THE WINDS. GFS SUFFERS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK             
ISSUES AND TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM IT AND WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM FOR            
WINDS AS NO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH IT. SPEEDS SHOULD                 
STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO              
20 KT ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH. NAM IS A BIT STRONG ON WINDS              
THEN AND KNOCKED THEM DOWN A BIT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...GM                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
115 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT)                                             
WATER IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO                    
WITH A DEEP TROUGH AND AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC              
STATES...A RIDGING OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO... AND MORE               
TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST. SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE BLANKETING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                 
VALLEY...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LOWS ARE OVER                  
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT              
STRETCHED BETWEEN THEM. ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC             
STATES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SUN ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT)                           
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AS            
THE QUEBEC LOW STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. THE SASKATCHEWAN             
LOW WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST ALSO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING THROUGH              
THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAKE TONIGHT. THE                 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND AND                        
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT               
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                         
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SHIFT                
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING            
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN U.P. SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE              
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE SURFACE                 
TROUGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP                   
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH              
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY LATE              
IN THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY                
FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS LOOKING FOR               
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.                                          
.LONG TERM... (SUNDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY)                                      
SUN NIGHT...THE WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA/TSRA TOWARD               
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT A                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BAND OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED              
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS              
IS OFTEN THE CASE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WOULD MORE LIKELY DEVELOP            
IN THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND 925-850 MB CONV AND MOVE INTO            
WI (PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM)...REDUCING MOISTURE INFLOW AND PCPN               
CHANCES OVER UPPER MI. SO...CURRENT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.            
850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 15C AND MUCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND                
1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW                   
STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF...WITH THREAT              
OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.                                             
MON...AFTER ANY MORNING SHRA/TSRA DIMINISH...A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT IS             
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH UPPER MI...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA.            
ALTHOUGH SBCAPE VALUES MAY CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE WITH SFC              
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED SINCE               
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.            
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH             
THE AREA WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA              
CHANCES GOING.                                                                  
WED-SAT...MODELS REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN             
EVOLUTION TOWARD A TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. THE RESULTING NW FLOW                 
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...500 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C...AND A               
SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA...SUPPORT               
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN             
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE             
INCLUDED. THE OP GFS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z RUN...WAS THE MOST                    
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES THU               
INTO FRI. THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WHICH STILL CARVES            
OUT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLOW NORMAL            
AND MAY BE LOWERED FURTHER IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER IN A PERIOD             
OF ENHANCED LOW/MID MOISTURE AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTS E OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...DRY LOW-LEVELS             
WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU THIS FCST             
PERIOD AT KCMX/KSAW. NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD...APPROACHING             
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SHRA/TSRA TO KCMX. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN              
LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN RIGHT            
NOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT            
AND THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS            
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MN...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STILL              
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON             
INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY             
CREEP UP TO 20 KT ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH              
IS EXPECTED TO DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. WEST            
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...              
WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RESOLVING               
INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS.                                                
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE RUC INDICATING A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AC/CI              
STREAMING THROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.             
TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN                
THE 50S AND 60S. SEVERAL MCS/S HAD DEVELOPED IN MONTANA AND THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST. SOME FAIRLY                  
IMPRESSIVE STORMS OUT THERE...WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 4KM WRF-NMM                
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB                   
PINPOINTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS MCS...ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT                   
HANDLE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA.                                    
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES                
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY                  
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A              
HARD TIME LATCHING ONTO SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND THE                     
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE TRICKY TO                      
PINPOINT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO GO MAINLY                 
WITH TRENDS AND ASSESSMENT OF MASS FIELDS IN DETERMINING POPS AND               
QPF. HAVE CLOSELY FOLLOWED HPC QPF WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS.                        
FOR TODAY...WILL HIT THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA HARDEST THIS MORNING.                
THE 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT THE MCS                   
ACTIVITY IN THE DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE                
CWA...FIRST REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THEN                  
SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WE COULD SEE SOME                    
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT PERHAPS TAKING PLACE AS IT                
DOES. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE IMPACT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL HAVE                
ON SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SURFACE                
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS MUCH OF               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THINK THIS LOOKS              
REASONABLE IF SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR. WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS                   
TODAY BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS...IN THE                 
EVENT IT DOES NOT DIMINISH AS PROGGED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE                 
ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION NEARLY CWA-              
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO                     
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL GO FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS.                    
FOR TONIGHT...THINK THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT               
AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                 
OVERNIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LLJ WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVERRIDING THE FRONT               
WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO GENERATE SOME MCS ACTIVITY.               
WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/3                
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY SPREAD APART                
BUT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS AND THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE                    
LOW/LLJ...WILL INCREASE POPS ANYWAY. COULD STILL BE A FEW                       
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.                      
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED.                 
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
THE SITUATION CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THERE ARE SOME MCS/S. BEST                   
CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...                                           
AS WAS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME YDAY..THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM             
TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE             
FRONT MON-TUE WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS..BUT FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IT             
APPEARS THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHUNTED MOSTLY SE OF THE              
DLH CWA BY TUESDAY.  WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW POPS DURING THE DAY              
TUESDAY FOR NOW..BUT WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE TUE                   
NITE/WED AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD INTO THE WRN              
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
FOR THE WED NITE-SAT TIME FRAME...WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DAY TO DAY             
DETAILS..MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH                    
PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF AND                 
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  SUCH A PATTERN              
WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BEING                   
DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DLH CWA..WITH COOL AND                   
RELATIVELY DRY N/NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES.  HENCE..WE HAVE REMOVED             
MENTION OF PRECIP FRI/SAT AND COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH THIS                   
FORECAST ISSUANCE..ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SIMILAR AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD TO THE PAST 24                
HOURS OR SO.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS            
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER..CLOUDS ARE THIN ENUF TO ALLOW              
FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN THIS MORNING..AND SOME FOG            
HAS FORMED IN FAVORED LOW LYING TERRAIN AREAS INCLUDING HAYWARD AND             
HIBBING..WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 13-14Z.  ALSO..LOW LEVEL               
JET IS STRONGER THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW                 
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION CHANGE OF GREATER THAN 20             
KTS/20 DEGREES WITHIN 2KFT OF SURFACE.  CHANCE FOR TSTORMS WILL                 
INCREASE BETWEEN 15-18Z IN KBRD AND 17-19Z IN KHIB/KDLH/KHYR.                   
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  72  59  79  58 /  40  50  30  30                                           
INL  79  58  80  56 /  30  40  20  30                                           
BRD  83  61  83  59 /  40  60  20  30                                           
HYR  80  61  85  59 /  40  60  30  30                                           
ASX  79  60  79  59 /  30  50  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP/MILLER                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008/                                           
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF                        
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
EARLY MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR ALLOWED FOR A LOW STARTING                
POINT TO TODAYS TEMPS...AND WITH INCOMING CIRRUS THE MERCURY HAS                
BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RISE THIS AFTN. BUT THE CLOUDS AND                        
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS NOT TO DROP MUCH                      
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE COMMON IN                 
THE MN FORECAST AREA...10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.                 
12Z RAOBS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A TIGHT 850-600MB BAROCLINIC               
ZONE FROM ERN SD INTO IA. THIS HAS PROPAGATED GRADUALLY NEWRD                   
INTO SW MN AND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BREEDING GROUND FOR SOME                   
STRONG CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ INCREASES TO              
45 TO 50 KTS. SOME ACCAS WAS APPARENT THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE IN                
NRN IA TOO...INDICATIVE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.                                
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED SLOWLY EWRD TODAY AHEAD OF A                     
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IN SD. THIS HAS BEEN UNDER VERY WARM 700MB                  
TEMPS AS ANALYZED BY THE RUC AT 15C TO 17C. SO THERE IS A SMALL                 
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLD SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.              
MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E                
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN                    
MN/NRN IA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 8-9 C/KM IN THE                       
700-400MB LAYER ARE PROJECTED BY THE GUIDANCE...WITH DEEP                       
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THAT VERTICAL CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO                        
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND NEGATIVE EPV FURTHER AIDING IN UPWARD                 
MOTION. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL MODE. 09Z SREF                
SUPERCELL MODE PROBABILITY IS GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT IN SRN MN                 
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH /15.5-16.0             
KFT/ POSSIBLY NEGATING SVR HAIL. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD/EVOLVE BOTH EWRD AND SWRD THRU THE REMAINDER OF SUN MORNING               
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CAP. SO HAVE              
INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING FOR SRN MN AND ERN MN/WRN              
WI RESPECTIVELY. MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST IN ND AND POTENTIALLY              
SD IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH PRECIP...BUT MAY LEAD                
TO MORE CLOUDS FOR SUN AFTN.                                                    
DURING THE AFTN ON SUN...850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED               
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A                
SUB 1005MB LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR NE NEBRASKA LATE IN THE                  
AFTN ON MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A CONNECTED 70F PLUS TD FETCH TO THE               
GULF. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED                
ON MOST GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. WITH SOME LOW AND                 
MID-LEVEL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION                        
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SRN MN...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS                      
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED CAP LEADS                
TO HIGH MLCIN VALUES ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH 21Z AND EVEN               
HINTED AT UNTIL 00Z GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S LIKELY                
NOT BEING REACHED. HOWEVER...IN THE EVE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS               
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A VORT MAXIMA AND                   
CONVECTION IS THEN MUCH MORE LIKELY. WITH INCREASING LLJ                        
SUPPORT...NAMELY IN SRN AND ERN MN AND WRN WI...SOME OF THE                     
CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                   
MON WILL POSE ONE MORE DAY WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS SFC                   
COLD FRONT OOZES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY A               
LOT BETWEEN THEN AND NOW...BUT THE MAIN FORECAST TREND HAS BEEN TO              
SPEED THIS PROGRESSION UP. THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH                   
GUIDANCE DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHERN                
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS LEGIT...SO HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS              
IN NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. TIMING OF                  
IMPULSES IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE FOR MON...BUT DOES APPEAR THERE ARE                 
DECENT AFTN AND EVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR SRN AND SE MN. FRONT                 
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY                 
TUES.                                                                           
BEYOND...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SET UP THROUGH THE END OF                
THE WEEK AS ERN NA LONG WAVE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS                     
GRADUALLY WORK DOWNWARDS AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                    
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNS OF VORT                  
SPOKES DURING THU-SAT ON WRN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH...BUT AT THIS                  
POINT THE ECMWF AND GFS WOULD FAVOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR AFTN/EVE                
SHRA CHANCES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST. VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION FROM                  
EASTERN NEB INTO NW IA AND SW MN WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP               
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. MOST AFFECTED BY THIS                 
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE KRWF...BUT POSSIBLY MSP. AT THIS TIME WILL                  
JUST MENTION VCTS FOR KRWF AND VCSH FOR KMSP. VERY WARM MID LEVEL               
TEMPS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT A SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME          
INTO NEB AND WESTERN IA COULD OFFSET THIS LIMITATION. HAIL IS                   
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS BUT HIGH FREEZING LEVELS COULD                  
LIMIT SIZE TO JUST INTO CRITERIA. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS FROM                 
STORMS WILL NOT LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS              
OVER WESTERN IA COULD AFFECT SW MN OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR THE                   
STORMS WILL LAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WARM MID LEVEL                 
TEMPS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN               
MN. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING MT TONIGHT WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL TRIGGER              
FOR STORMS OVER CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY NORTH OF             
THE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND                 
CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW THE CAP TO WEAKEN  OVER SOUTHERN MN IN                   
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO BE              
AFFECTED BY CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT                    
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SITES. GENERALLY VFR UNTIL STORMS DEVELOP               
BUT AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING OVER SW MN.                 
 &&                                                                             
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER            
THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST              
SCENARIO.                                                                       
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST                
NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE              
GRADIENT SEEN ACROSS IOWA WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS            
THE FAR WEST AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE EAST. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT             
850MB SHOWS A +20 CELSIUS DEW POINT AT KOMA...AND -12 CELSIUS AT                
KDVN. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS             
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FEEDING MOISTURE OVER THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED                  
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON EDGE OF CAP IN CONVERGENCE AREA NORTH               
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...WHERE SPS MUCAPES OF            
1000 TO 2000 J/KG RESIDE.                                                       
03.00Z NCEP DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL CONSISTENT WITH MID               
LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND                       
FLATTENING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN            
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                          
BOTH THE 03.00Z GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS             
INDICATE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA              
BY THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS.                      
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE IT INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN             
WISCONSIN LATER IN TH DAY. WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO BECOME CAPPED AS +20            
CELSIUS 850MB-700MB AIR ADVECTS IN. LOW LEVEL JET WANES DURING THE              
MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST OVER THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOWER END CHANCE POPS THOUGH MUCH OF THE                 
DAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS ELEVATE CAPES                 
EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.                                                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...             
GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL           
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG             
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HAVE            
PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTH               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE             
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.                             
FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH                
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING. EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION TO                
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET WANES.                        
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ONCE AGAIN.             
QUESTION WILL BE POSITION OF FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE                   
CHANCE POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME. AS TROUGH OVER CANADA BUILDS                    
SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD                
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE               
POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT REMOVE THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR                
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.                                                        
TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY AS WARM AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION              
BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. WARMEST DAY LOOKS               
TO BE MONDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL POSITION...BUT A FEW              
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK.                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO            
THEM.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
BOTH THE 03.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGHING SETTLING OVER           
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN                   
DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER WEATHER IS               
EXPECTED IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH COLD POOL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS              
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS SET OF GRIDS LOOK IN                 
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THIS TIME FRAME.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
AT 3 AM...KARX DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX                  
EXTENDING FROM WATERLOO IOWA SOUTHEAST TO BURLINGTON IOWA.                      
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM WATERLOO IOWA NORTHEAST TO                 
MARSHALL MINNESOTA. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AN                  
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. SPC RUC IS SHOWING THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES            
HAVE CLIMBED BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG SINCE MIDNIGHT ACROSS                   
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER WEST THE MOST                 
UNSTABLE CAPES ARE IN THE EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN AND                
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT            
HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH                  
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A                    
RESULT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOWERS AND                  
EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST                
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 40 TO            
45 KNOT RANGE...THE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED SUPER CELLS.              
HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER WITH THE DOWNDRAFT                 
CAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN OUR FAR WEST...THERE WILL ALSO BE             
THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS.                                                
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM FRONT              
WILL GET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEY ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT IT               
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF             
WISCONSIN. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE...IF               
ANY...PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG CAPPING. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION              
WILL LIKELY PERSIST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. A FEW OF THESE                     
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM TIME TO TIME. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS              
TRYING TO TIME THIS PRECIPITATION...AND I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN             
ANY PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD. INSTEAD OF BLANKETING MUCH OF THE TIME              
PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...I WILL LIMITED MY CHANCES TO THE EARLIER            
PORTIONS OF TAF PERIOD AND GO WITH CB IN THE LATTER PARTS.                      
HOPEFULLY BY DOING THIS WE WILL BE ABLE TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE.                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RABERDING                                                     
AVIATION..........BOYNE                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW                       
ENGLAND...A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS WESTERN             
U.P. INTO NORTHEAST EAST ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHWEST               
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC                     
NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS            
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SURFACE...A               
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW IS               
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT LEADING IT AND REACHING                     
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND ACROSS TO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC             
COAST. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHWEST MANITOBA  WITH A WEAK COLD               
FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION OF THE MAIN FEATURES LISTED ABOVE ARE            
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT             
OF DRY AIR OVER THE CWA THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING              
CLOSE BY...SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY THIS AFTERNOON.                      
HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT                
COMING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG               
WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME CONVECTION                    
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MN FROM SPREADING ONTO WESTERN LAKE                     
SUPERIOR...OR PERHAPS EVEN INTO IWD. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS             
SHOW WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS                
AROUND 14C...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT LEAST INTO THE             
MID 80S. SURFACE HEATING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW THE                
FORMATION OF SOME LAKE BREEZES...WHICH COULD GET GUSTY OFF LAKE MI              
WITH ENHANCEMENT BY THE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...COOLER TEMPS ARE               
INDICATED FOR BOTH LAKE MI SHORELINE AND SOME IMMEDIATE LAKE                    
SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS. THE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3              
TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GRIDS ARE SHOWING. PLAN TO UPDATE AN               
BUMP TEMPERATURES UP BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO BECOME A            
BIT MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW STARTS PUSHING EAST.             
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN SW MONTANA IS PROGGED TO               
MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN BY 06Z AND INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z             
MON. THIS SHRTWV SHOULD HELP PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UPPER MI                 
EASTWARD...PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN THE LOW                 
LEVELS. THIS WARM ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING                   
IN...LIKELY MEANS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN            
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION DEPENDS HIGHLY ON FAR NORTH THE CAP FROM THE              
HEAT RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES NORTH...AS THE EDGE OF THIS              
CAP IS LIKELY WHERE THE MCS TRACKS ALONG. THE 00Z UKMET REMAINS                 
CONSISTENT WITH MANY OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM              
CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WI AND UPPER MI...SINCE IT BRINGS 850MB TEMPS OF            
20C OR GREATER TO A LINE FROM HINCKELY MN TO MADISON WI BY 06Z TUE.             
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN IS PRACTICALLY IDENTICAL TO THE UKMET. OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE UKMET...ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH.              
THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE FARTHER SOUTH...DEVELOPING THE MCS OVER SRN MN            
AND TRACKING IT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WI...WITH UPPER MI GETTING                
INTO THE NRN FRINGES OF THE PCPN FIELD. THE 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO               
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN...BUT SLOWER...TAKING AN MCS FROM CENTRAL MN              
INTO SRN UPPER MI BETWEEN 12-18Z MON. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE              
ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 50                    
POPS...GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN U.P.. NEXT SHIFT CAN DETERMINE                  
WHETHER TO RAISE POPS FURTHER ONCE MORE CERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON HOW               
FAR NORTH THE CAP LIFTS TODAY IN MN. WHEREVER THE MCS OCCURS...THERE            
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS                  
PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT SINCE FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH (14500            
FT OR HIGHER). SHOULD BE A WARM NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 60S.           
MONDAY...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT             
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MEANS SOME WEAK                
RIDGING MAY GET BUILT UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND THUS                
PROVIDE SOME CAPPING AND SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE              
FORECAST TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE                  
MORNING FORECAST IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME AS IT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON              
THE LOCATION OF TONIGHTS MCS. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...              
HAVE WENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN U.P. WHICH SHOULD BE                 
CLOSE TO OR POSSIBLY ON THE MCS TRACK (NOTED BY THE 00Z GFS).                   
ANOTHER REASON FOR LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS THAT THE AREA             
SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME HEATING UP DUE TO CLOUD COVER OFF THE                 
MCS...NO MATTER WHERE THE MCS IS. GUIDANCE TEMPS COOLED DOWN...AND              
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN EVEN SHOWS HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. THEREFORE...             
TWEAKED THE HIGHS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO LOW            
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPS IN THE AFTN ARE 14-16C...WHICH WITH ANY SUN              
COULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WERE                  
COOLED...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BIT HUMID AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS                
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFT INTO UPPER MI.                                           
MON NIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS INDICATED TO MOVE                
INTO NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CWA             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE STILL LEFT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THESE                
HEIGHT FALLS...BUT AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN CHANCES GIVEN               
TIME OF DAY. MODELS REFLECT THIS BY SOME NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AND             
OTHERS ONLY SOME LIGHT QPF. TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE ON THE MILD SIDE              
GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAT MOVED IN ON MONDAY.                             
TUE...WEATHER IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING. SHRTWV TROUGH IN               
NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO IS NOW PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO DIG DOWN INTO             
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ANOTHER SHRTWV CURRENTLY ON            
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS DIGGING IS              
REPRESENTED BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 80                     
METERS...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM. GIVEN THE TIMING OF               
THE SHRTWV COMING DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH                  
MOVING THROUGH...DEWPOINTS STILL BEING HELD UP IN THE LOW TO MID 60S            
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE            
MORNING (HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE                   
SHORELINES)...EXPECTING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO                
INCLUDE COVERAGE WORDING. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF                
40-45 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SOME SEVERE WEATHER              
SEEMS POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY NOT BE THAT GREAT OF HAZARD WITH HIGH                  
FREEZING LEVELS AGAIN...HOWEVER HIGH SURFACE TO 10000 FT DELTA                  
THETA-E VALUES (AROUND 25) AS A RESULT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING              
IN SUGGESTS A DEFINITE ISSUE FOR WIND. SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE                    
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THE WESTERN U.P. STARTS DRYING OUT              
WHEN THE SHRTWV MOVES IN. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN              
U.P. IN A SEVERE RISK.                                                          
TUE NIGHT AND WED...DRYING WILL COME INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT BEHIND              
TUE AFTNS SHRTWV. THEREFORE GOING DRY FORECAST IS ON TRACK. IN                  
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO MOVE IN. WAS TEMPTED TO LEAVE THE             
FORECAST DRY FOR WED AS WELL...HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING THROUGH UPPER MI AS THE BEGINNINGS OF AN UPPER            
TROUGH FORM OVER SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND             
GFS SHOW THIS SHRTWV...BUT ONLY THE GFS PRODUCES PCPN. THE PCPN AREA            
IS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL U.P. DURING THE AFTN DUE TO LAKE BREEZE              
CONVERGENCE. MODIFIED SOUNDING FROM THE AREA WHERE PCPN IS PRODUCED             
TO REMOVE THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINT BIAS STILL SUGGESTS AROUND 500              
J/KG (INSTEAD OF THE 900 J/KG). THEREFORE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND                   
INCLUDED A 20 POP. OTHER PCPN MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
DURING THE AFTN OFF THE MN ARROWHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV.            
GOING TEMP FORECAST FOR WED SEEMED REASONABLE.                                  
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND WED. STILL LOOKS LIKE UNSEASONABLY COOL            
WEATHER TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO 6-8C.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN CONVECTION WILL COME             
IN. WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVING...THINK VIS WILL GO MVFR WITH                
SOME FOG AND PUT IN BOTH SITES WITH CIGS STAYING VFR. MENTIONED CB              
GROUP IN TAFS AND NOT THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WHEN EVENT DRAWS                    
CLOSER...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE INCLUDED WHEN TIMING IS A BIT MORE                
CERTAIN AND ALSO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD.               
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONVECTION WILL GO AROUND THE AREA                       
INSTEAD...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT TSRA IN TAFS YET.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION              
AND WHAT IT WILL DO WITH THE WINDS. GFS SUFFERS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK             
ISSUES AND TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM IT AND WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM FOR            
WINDS AS NO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH IT. SPEEDS SHOULD                 
STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO              
20 KT ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH. NAM IS A BIT STRONG ON WINDS              
THEN AND KNOCKED THEM DOWN A BIT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...GM                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1111 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FCST STILL ON TRACK. UPDATED ZFP FOR TIME REFERENCES. ALSO ISSUED               
SML CRAFT ADVY FOR HEAD OF THE LAKE THRU THIS EVE FOR STRONGER                  
ONSHORE WINDS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RESOLVING                
INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS.                                                
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE RUC INDICATING A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AC/CI              
STREAMING THROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.             
TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN                
THE 50S AND 60S. SEVERAL MCS/S HAD DEVELOPED IN MONTANA AND THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST. SOME FAIRLY                  
IMPRESSIVE STORMS OUT THERE...WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 4KM WRF-NMM                
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB                   
PINPOINTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS MCS...ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT                   
HANDLE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA.                                    
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES                
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY                  
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A              
HARD TIME LATCHING ONTO SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND THE                     
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE TRICKY TO                      
PINPOINT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO GO MAINLY                 
WITH TRENDS AND ASSESSMENT OF MASS FIELDS IN DETERMINING POPS AND               
QPF. HAVE CLOSELY FOLLOWED HPC QPF WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS.                        
FOR TODAY...WILL HIT THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA HARDEST THIS MORNING.                
THE 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT THE MCS                   
ACTIVITY IN THE DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE                
CWA...FIRST REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THEN                  
SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WE COULD SEE SOME                    
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT PERHAPS TAKING PLACE AS IT                
DOES. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE IMPACT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL HAVE                
ON SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SURFACE                
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS MUCH OF               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THINK THIS LOOKS              
REASONABLE IF SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR. WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS                   
TODAY BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS...IN THE                 
EVENT IT DOES NOT DIMINISH AS PROGGED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE                 
ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION NEARLY CWA-              
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO                     
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL GO FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS.                    
FOR TONIGHT...THINK THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT               
AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                 
OVERNIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LLJ WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVERRIDING THE FRONT               
WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO GENERATE SOME MCS ACTIVITY.               
WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/3                
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY SPREAD APART                
BUT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS AND THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE                    
LOW/LLJ...WILL INCREASE POPS ANYWAY. COULD STILL BE A FEW                       
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.                      
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED.                 
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
THE SITUATION CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THERE ARE SOME MCS/S. BEST                   
CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.                        
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...                                            
AS WAS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME YDAY..THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM             
TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE             
FRONT MON-TUE WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS..BUT FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IT             
APPEARS THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHUNTED MOSTLY SE OF THE              
DLH CWA BY TUESDAY.  WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW POPS DURING THE DAY              
TUESDAY FOR NOW..BUT WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE TUE                   
NITE/WED AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD INTO THE WRN              
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
FOR THE WED NITE-SAT TIME FRAME...WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DAY TO DAY             
DETAILS..MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH                    
PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF AND                 
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  SUCH A PATTERN              
WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BEING                   
DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DLH CWA..WITH COOL AND                   
RELATIVELY DRY N/NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES.  HENCE..WE HAVE REMOVED             
MENTION OF PRECIP FRI/SAT AND COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH THIS                   
FORECAST ISSUANCE..ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR.             
AVIATION...SIMILAR AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD TO THE PAST 24                 
HOURS OR SO.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS            
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER..CLOUDS ARE THIN ENUF TO ALLOW              
FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN THIS MORNING..AND SOME FOG            
HAS FORMED IN FAVORED LOW LYING TERRAIN AREAS INCLUDING HAYWARD AND             
HIBBING..WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 13-14Z.  ALSO..LOW LEVEL               
JET IS STRONGER THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW                 
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION CHANGE OF GREATER THAN 20             
KTS/20 DEGREES WITHIN 2KFT OF SURFACE.  CHANCE FOR TSTORMS WILL                 
INCREASE BETWEEN 15-18Z IN KBRD AND 17-19Z IN KHIB/KDLH/KHYR.                   
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  72  59  79  58 /  30  50  30  30                                           
INL  79  58  80  56 /  30  40  20  30                                           
BRD  83  61  83  59 /  40  60  20  30                                           
HYR  80  61  85  59 /  30  60  30  30                                           
ASX  79  60  79  59 /  30  50  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
04/GRANING                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1014 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAISED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH RUC13...09Z SREF...12Z                 
MET/MAVMOS. MORNING RAOB FROM EPZ TO ABQ SHOWS BIG INCREASE IN                  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.               
STORMS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH COMBINE WITH PWATS AROUND 1 INCH...SO                 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE UPPER LEVEL                 
WAVE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN NM SHOULD ALSO HELP TRIGGER                   
CONVECTION.                                                                     
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008...                                 
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. CENTERED               
UP ON NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM                   
WESTERN COLORADO TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WESTBOUND              
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ALONG SOUTHERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE...WITH                
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENTS FROM WEST TEXAS                     
THROUGH WESTERN SONORA STATE AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.                   
MODELS...HANGING TOGETHER REASONABLY IN A LOW FLOW REGIME WITH                  
LITTLE DYNAMICAL ACTION. BROAD CONSENSUS MOVES RIDGE CORE EASTWARD              
VERY SLOWLY THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THEN RETURNS              
THE CORE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE LAST HALF HALF OF THE               
WORK WEEK...AND ANOTHER WOBBLE BACK TO THE EAST FOR THE UPCOMING                
WEEKEND. GFS BRINGING ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY                  
LABELED INVEST 91 AND PRESENTLY OFF MOBILE BAY...WESTWARD ACROSS                
SOUTH TEXAS WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA                
BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND SPILLING FURTHER EAST INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY               
IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH THIS                
TRACK...AND EUROPEAN CENTER MODEL FOR ONE KEEPS MUCH OF THE                     
RESULTING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE WEST IN ARIZONA WITH NEW                    
MEXICO MAINLY IN THE DRY. STAY TUNED...AS FUTURE RUNS WILL HAVE                 
MUCH TO SAY ON HOW INVEST 91 IS HANDLED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
GETTING GOING TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST                    
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET STARTED OVER THE                
SACRAMENTOS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO                  
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON...AS CORE OF RIDGE ALOFT STARTS                
TO CREEP SLOWLY EASTWARD. HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE                     
ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES REMAINING BROADLY ABOVE SEASONAL                   
NORMS FOR EARLY AUGUST. LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE               
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE SANGRE DE                          
CRISTOS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE                   
STATE IN WAKE OF RETREATING RIDGE ALOFT.                                        
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW COILING UP OVER              
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE ACTIVE OVER THE STATE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM                
SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY WITH BROAD INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE                 
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEST TO THE ARIZONA BORDER...WITH               
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE COPPER STATE FOR THE                
DAY ON MONDAY. EXTRA CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL HELP LIMIT                      
UPSWINGS IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. LINGERING SHOWERS                 
MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.                         
INTO TUESDAY...RIDGE CORE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AS                    
SURFACE LOW BENEATH WESTWARD PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE TAKES UP                     
RESIDENCE OVER NORTHEAST SONORA STATE. AUGMENTED MOIST FLOW                     
NORTHWARD WILL MEET UP WITH WEAK DYNAMICS CIRCULATING ABOUT THE                 
WESTERN MARGINS OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE FOR ANOTHER BOOST IN SHOWER              
COVERAGE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE ARIZONA                         
BORDER...AND COVERAGE EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND                
NORTHEAST PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE AND THICKER CLOUD                   
COVER WILL FLATTEN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THIS                  
ROUND...WITH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RUNNING IN THE SUNSHINE                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS.                                     
INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS RIDGE CENTER STARTS BUILDING                 
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN               
NEW MEXICO WILL HELP BACK WINDS TO SOUTHEAST FOR YET ANOTHER                    
UPTICK AND COVERAGE EXPANSION OF SHOWERS FOR THE DAY. WILL STILL                
BE TOUGH TO GET TOO MUCH COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN               
PLAINS...BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL PICK UP YET ANOTHER                
DAY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY WILL                
BE PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TUESDAY.                                             
SHY                                                                             
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS            
OF THE STATE...INITIATING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVING SLOWLY AND             
ERRATICALLY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST            
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS            
EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS               
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND CONVECTION COULD CARRY ON INTO THE                
LATE EVENING HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                
FROM THE SOUTH.                                                                 
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 52                                  
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST OF NEW MEXICO             
AND WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP THE DOOR TO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM             
THE SOUTH. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY                
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS OVERALL            
SCENARIO WILL ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THROUGH             
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR TODAY...STORMS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE                 
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE...PARTICULARLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL               
AREAS. STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN ISOLATED TODAY...WHILE HUMIDITIES               
DECLINE BELOW 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCALES NEAR AND NORTH OF                      
INTERSTATE 40...AND NEAR SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ARE REACHED IN THE             
NORTHWEST. STORMS COULD BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS EARLY AS                
THIS EVENING AND MORE SO ON MONDAY. THROUGH MID WEEK DEWPOINTS AND              
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO SLOWLY RESPOND/INCREASE SOME TO ADDITIONAL                 
STORMS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MANY                 
PLACES. LOCALIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE            
ONLY WIND CONCERN. 52.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  97  64  95  64 /   5  10   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  90  58  88  58 /  20  20  20  20              
GRANTS..........................  91  57  89  57 /  10  20  20  10              
GLENWOOD........................  93  63  91  62 /  50  50  30  20              
CHAMA...........................  85  48  84  49 /  20  20  20  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  86  59  84  60 /  20  30  10  10              
RED RIVER.......................  79  46  78  47 /  30  30  20  20              
TAOS............................  90  54  89  54 /  20  30  10  10              
SANTA FE........................  90  58  88  57 /  20  30  10  10              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  61  90  61 /  10  30  10  10              
ESPANOLA........................  94  59  92  58 /  20  30  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  69  93  69 /   5  30  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  95  66  93  65 /   0  20  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  91  63  89  63 /   5  30  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  64  92  65 /   5  20  10  10              
SOCORRO.........................  93  65  91  64 /   5  20   5   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  85  55  81  56 /   5  30  10  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  58  88  57 /  10  30  10  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  62  89  61 /  10  20  10  10              
RUIDOSO.........................  82  57  80  55 /  20  20  20  10              
RATON...........................  92  56  91  57 /  20  20  10   5              
LAS VEGAS.......................  87  57  86  56 /  20  20  10  10              
ROY.............................  89  62  89  62 /   5  10   5   5              
CLAYTON.........................  95  66  94  65 /   0   5   0   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  95  63  94  62 /   0   5   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69  97  67 /   0   5   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  67  94  66 /   0   5   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  96  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  96  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  98  70  98  70 /   0   5   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1034 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS                   
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE                
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR                     
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
AS OF 1030AM...LOTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING AS COOL TEMPS ALOFT              
COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LLEVEL HEATING...AND MOIST UPLOPE NW FLOW               
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SHRA HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE SOME THIS                  
MORNING AS WELL...BRINGING A SOMEWHAT RAW FEEL TO THIS EARLY                    
AUGUST MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE DAY                      
PROGRESSES...BUT EXPECT MOST SPOTS WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.               
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE                    
HEATING. THE NAM/RUC SUGGEST A SMALL WINDOW BY MID AFTERNOON OF                 
SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE RUC QUICKLY SHUTS THE                
DOOR WITH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS HEIGHTS RISE BY                  
LATE AFTERNOON. SO...EXPECT MOSTLY SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA                
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S GIVEN                 
T850 AROUND +11-12C AND NOT QUITE FULL MIXING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF               
CLOUDINESS AROUND.                                                              
PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE ONLY HAD TO                 
MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED                         
GRIDS/PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                                                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
UA LOW PARKED OVER VERMONT WILL KEEP A COOL POOL ALOFT...AND A                  
NORTH FLOW OF MID LVL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MOISTURE                
AND INSTABILITY WILL CONT THE RISK OF RW AND TRWS...ESP OVER THE                
NERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
UA LOW SLOWLY LIFTS EWRD TO BE OFF THE ME CST BY 12Z MON. THIS                  
WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL RETURN OF DRIER AIR...AND SFC RDGG...OVER THE              
AREA. STILL...ENUF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF               
SHWRS AND TRWS FOR MUCH THE 2ND PD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST                
AREA. DESPITE SFC RDGG AND THE RETURN OF DRY AIR...OVERALL PTRN OF              
A BROAD TROF OVER THE NE CONTS AS THE RECORD HEAT UNDER THE PLAINS              
RDG CONTS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA MORE COMFORTABLE BUT PRONE TO                
SHRT WVS ZIPPING THRU THE UPR FLOW. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING                 
FROM SOME CONV FEEDBACK...OVER DVLPG A SFC LOW AND SHRT WV ON TUE               
BUT IT/S DFCLT TO RULE OUT SHWRS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME IN THIS PTRN.               
FOR NOW...WILL IGNORE THE GFS SOLN FOR TUE AND KEEP THE REMAINDER               
OF THE PD DRY. NEXT BEST SHRT WV LOOKS TO APRCH THE AREA IN THE                 
XTNDD PD.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
DEEP EAST COAST TROFFING STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY END OF THE                   
WEEK. CONTINUITY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SOLN IN THIS CASE AS                    
INDIVIDUAL S/WVS WILL BE EXTREMELY HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON UNTIL                
CLOSER IN TIME. HV KEPT ONLY SLGT POPS IN WED NGT/THUR UNDER                    
TRANSITORY FLOW. AFT THAT POINT...CANNOT RULE OUT SCTD PCPN ANY PD              
THRU RMNDR OF THE LONG TERM. CURRENT FCST CAPITALIZES ON THESE                  
TRENDS AND HV MADE VRY FEW TWEAKS TO EXTNDD DRG THIS TIMEFRAME.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MRNG...WITH LCL IFR ON THE HILLTOPS                 
AND AT RME. OVERALL...CIGS ARE XPCTD TO LIFT BY THIS AFTN TO                    
VFR...BUT MVFR COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT A FEW CNTRL NY                    
LOCATIONS. SCT --SHRA THIS MRNG WITH PSBLTY OF -TSRA THIS                       
AFTN....BUT PROBS DEEMED TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.               
BECT CHC APPEARS TO BE AT RME AND WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED. GNRLY VFR              
XPCTD TNGT...BUT PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST PSBLTY OF MVFR CIGS                
LATE...ALTHO THEY SHUD BE RESTRITED TO UPSTATE NY. WINDS TDA NW ARND            
10 KTS...WITH G15-20 PSBL THIS AFTN..BCMG LGT THIS EVNG.                        
SUN NGT THRU MON NGT...VFR BUT POTNL FOR DENSE EARLY MRNG VLY FOG               
AT ELM.                                                                         
TUES THRU WED NGT...POTNL FOR SCT MVFR IN TSRA.                                 
THU...CONDS IMPRV TO VFR.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA/DGM                                                             
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
LONG TERM...PVB                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CONVECTION/SEVERE                
POTENTIAL. VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING AND STILL MORE                       
QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS AT THIS POINT. 12Z NAM/RUC DO OFFER A BIT                
OF INSIGHT. CURRENTLY AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING              
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE NOW ACROSS E                
ND. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD                           
MOVEMENT...EXITING FA BY 18Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE FA                  
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND 12Z                 
NAM/RUC SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WAVE ACROSS WYOMING WHICH SHOULD                  
CONTINUE NE PROPAGATION AND LIFT SFC-850MB LOW (CURRENTLY ACROSS                
CENTRAL/E SD) A BIT NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...30-40KT 850MB JET WILL SET              
UP ACROSS THE SE FA WITH 850MB CAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.               
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST AREA NEEDED TO WATCH FOR SEVERE                          
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE                 
OCCURRING JUST E OF THE FA. MID-LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL                 
WILL DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. 12Z MODEL              
GUIDANCE IS A BIT STRONGER WITH INVERTED TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE                 
WHICH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. MODELS SUGGESTING              
MLCAPE VALUES AT LEAST 1000 J/KG E OF THE VALLEY BY MID-                        
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS                   
GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID-LEVEL TEMPS DO COOL ACROSS MUCH              
OF THE FA (EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH) SO CAPPING WITH THIS TROUGH                    
PROBABLY NOT AN ISSUE. BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL BE              
CLOUD COVER AND INSTABILITY. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN                
UNCERTAINTIES. IF DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR NEXT FEW HOURS WILL                 
SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AND INCLUDE SEVERE MENTION IF WARRANTED.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PRIMARY VFR WITH PASSING CONVECTION TODAY. ALWAYS A                 
CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBY/CIGS IN STRONGER STORMS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEXT TWO DAYS ALONG             
WITH TEMPERATURES. WILL USE BLEND AS PREFER SFC/MOISTURE FEATURES               
WITH NAM EARLY THEN GFS FOR LATER PERIODS AS NAM SEEMS TOO ROBUST               
WITH QPF MONDAY WITH SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE.                                   
NEXT WAVE LIFTING ENE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS COMBINING WITH WELL             
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER SE MT...CONVERGENCE WITH ELEVATED              
FLOW...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYERED RH AND 60-70 DEGREE SFC DEWPOINTS                
RESULTING IN ORGANIZING TSRA COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER NW SD/SW ND ON              
FRINGE OF CAP. AM ALSO SEEING CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG COLD FRONT            
FARTHER NORTH OVER E MT. GREATEST INSTABILITY INITIALLY IS OVER SD              
WITH AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE FARTHER NORTH. FAR SOUTHERN FA ALSO                  
CLOSER TO FAVORED CONVERGENCE WITH 850MB FLOW AND ON FRINGE OF MID              
LEVEL CAP. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH.                 
FARTHER NORTH AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES DURING DAY AND AS COLD             
FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS FEEL SOME REMNANTS OF CURRENT             
CONVECTION OVER E MT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH REMAINDER OF FA AS WAVE             
PUSHES THROUGH AND REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENHANCE BROADSCALE LIFT               
WITH JET MAXIMA. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY AND               
WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.                    
SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY/CAPE                 
LIMITED AND CONVERGENCE WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY VERY WEAK. IF CURRENT             
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS/E MT PROPAGATES THROUGH FA DURING               
DAY NOT SURE IF AIRMASS WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER. WITH LACK OF                   
CONFIDENCE WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE BUT AFTER YESTERDAY CANNOT RULE              
OUT POSSIBILITY. NAM WHICH IS HANDLING SFC DEWPOINTS PRETTY WELL                
KEEPS 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS ALL BUT NW FA EVEN THOUGH COLUMN COOLS                
ALOFT.                                                                          
WILL JUMP OVER TO GFS SOLUTION MONDAY. MODELS GENERATE PLENTY OF QPF            
OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH NEXT WAVE INTERACTING WITH SHARP                 
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN                 
SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH SD DURING DAY AS WAVE CROSSES. AS A RESULT                 
PREFER GFS SOLUTION VS NAM WHICH TRACKS MAIN PCPN TRACK DUE EAST                
ACROSS FA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. COLUMN DOES NOT            
COOL A GREAT DEAL SO DEPENDING ON CLOUDS TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND             
CLOSE TO NORMAL.                                                                
HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT SO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM N-S                 
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING SPREADS ACROSS FA TUESDAY AS REGION                    
TRANSITIONS INTO MID LEVEL NW FLOW.                                             
REMAINDER OF PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH                    
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL NW FLOW. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE MAX                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE SHY OF AVERAGE WITH COOL                  
NIGHTS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG/VOELKER                                                                      
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
215 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
...NEAR CLIMO RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEK...            
.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS REVEALS PRESSURE CENTERS ABOUND ACROSS              
THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALL ARE LOCATED OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THE FIRST                
IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH                    
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE FORECAST                   
AREA. THE SECOND IS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE                   
NORTHEAST GULF WHICH IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH-                   
CENTRAL GULF. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO DWINDLE OVER                
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LESS GUSTINESS TO THE               
WIND FLOW HAS BEEN REPORTED TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.                        
FINALLY...A VERY WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN              
ALABAMA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GA AND THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH                      
CAROLINA. ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FIRED UP LATE LAST NIGHT                 
AND THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY POSE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE OVER OUR                   
REGION LATER THIS EVENING.                                                      
EXPECT UPSTREAM BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT                        
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                     
STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST IS PRESENT FOR ONLY THE NORTHERN 3               
TO 5 COUNTIES IN MY GA ZONES AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE THE                   
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADVECTING IN. THAT                             
SAID...PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY LOW END SCATTERED                
PRESENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS. SPC HAS OUTLINED THIS AREA IN                
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE INCREASING TO                
OVER 3500 J/KG...LI`S OF -9C AND DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCES OVER 30              
C. LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL BUT GOOD PARTICLE SEPARATION SHOULD              
LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HAIL ALONG WITH THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.                  
TROUGH BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS                  
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL TRY TO INCREASE.                 
DEVELOPING EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHEST POP                    
CHANCES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND MOISTURE PROFILES                  
WARRANT HIGH POPS OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION THROUGH WED EVENING.                 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND A LACK OF CLOUD COVER                    
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S OVER                
INLAND PORTIONS.                                                                
.LONG TERM...PERSISTENT EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH BUILDS IN AGAIN BY              
WEEKS END WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND DEEPER                   
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. CURRENT GRID SET HAS A GOOD HANDLE               
ON THIS AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OF ABOUT 20% OR LESS SO HAVE              
CONTINUED WITH VCTS OR CB IN THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. FOR                
TONIGHT...ONLY LIGHT PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ONLY 1 SITE            
HAD FOG THIS MORNING. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...HAVE LEFT CONDS AT             
VFR INTO EARLY MON MORNING. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE IN STORE FOR                
MONDAY BUT BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ONLY HAVE MENTION              
OF CBS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AT THIS TIME.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ARE SE TO SW OVER THE MARINE ZONES AT 12 KT OR LESS.            
SEAS CONTINUE LOW AT 3 FT OR LESS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD                
AGREEMENT ON WIND SPEEDS ROUGHLY 15-20 KT OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN                 
TONIGHT SO WILL PROBABLY GO THAT ROUTE WITH SCEC HEADLINE AT LEAST              
IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER WINDS APPEAR TO DROP DOWN TO              
10-15 KT TOWARD SUNRISE. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MAY BUILD SLOWLY NWD                
INTO TUE THEN DRIFT BACK S WED AND THU. THUS GENERAL PATTERN OF S TO            
SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AND SEAS                
GENERALLY RUNNING AT 2-3 FT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE                
FLOW AGAIN BY LATE WED INTO THU.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  75  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  30                                           
SSI  78  90  77  90 /  20  30  20  20                                           
JAX  77  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30                                           
SGJ  76  90  76  90 /  20  30  30  30                                           
GNV  74  92  74  94 /  20  40  30  40                                           
OCF  72  91  72  93 /  20  40  20  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY/KERNS                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AT NOSE OF 850-600MB THETA-E                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CTRL MN INTO WRN                  
WI. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EASTWARD AT EDGE OF MID-LEVEL               
CAP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND POSSIBILITY                 
INTO THE EVE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED                    
MUCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. LARGE CAPE INDICATED ALSO IN THE MAIN                
HAIL GROWTH REGION. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS                      
PRIMARY MODE AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL               
DATA /VAD PROFILER/ AND MESOANALYSIS DATA. HAIL THE MOST LIKELY                 
THREAT WITH THESE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                   
CONCERN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS GROWING IN SOUTH                 
CTRL MN...WITH INITIATION BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM APPEARING LIKELY.               
1005MB SFC LOW HAS EVOLVED INTO FAR SE SD DURING THE MIDDLE OF                  
THIS AFTN...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST                  
NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS BEEN DIABATICALLY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOUD                 
COVER TO THE NORTH AND BAKING HEAT TO THE SOUTH. CUMULUS CLOUD                  
STREETS /POSSIBLY HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS/ HAVE SHOWN UP IN                 
ERN TO NERN IA AND ARE ADVECTING INTO SOUTH CTRL MN. STILL A GREAT              
AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED AND MIXED-LAYER CIN IN THAT AREA AS                     
INDICATED BY DIAGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH THE BASIC H7 TEMPS               
A WARM 15C. BUT...SHORTWAVE OR VORT MAXIMA EXTENSION FROM                       
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN CTRL MN IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE CHANNELS IN              
SOUTH CTRL SD. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS INDICATED ON               
THE RUC MODEL COMING ACROSS INTO ERN SD AND SOON INTO SRN MN.                   
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS IS ENOUGH TO                   
TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SRN MN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR TRIGGERING SFC               
BASED CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING REACHED...WITH ADAPTED                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 75-77F BALLPARK                        
INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO NEAR 90F NEEDED FROM FAIRMONT UP TO              
MANKATO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL              
FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR                         
SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SHEAR PREDICTED BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE BETWEEN              
20-30 KTS...HELPED IN PART BY THE RE-INCREASING LLJ. BACKED LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IN OUR SOUTH CTRL COUNTIES ALSO AIDING POTENTIAL FOR                 
TORNADOES. IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WOULD           
BE SOON AFTER INITIATION. SIG TOR POTENTIAL SEEMS BRIEF BUT                     
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH LOCAL RESEARCH              
REGRESSIONS FOR FAVORABLE SIG TOR PARAMETERS. DOWNBURST POTENTIAL               
AND LARGE HAIL SEEM VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS DUE TO THE STRONG CAPE               
AND DCAPE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH IN THAT AREA. MOST LIKELY TIMING               
FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS WOULD BE 5 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE                
SVR MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THAT TIME.                           
AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND FOCUSES INTO SE MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF SHORT             
WAVE THIS EVE...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL                             
COVERAGE...INCLUDING IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. THIS SHOULD BE                       
ELEVATED IN ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES                
CONTINUING TO FEED THE CONVECTION. EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION SEEMS                  
LIKELY...GIVEN FAVORABLE MCS/DERECHO PARAMETERS...THAT WOULD                    
ESPECIALLY TAKE OFF OVER SE MN INTO SRN WI LATE THIS EVE INTO                   
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY                  
TAILORING BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH                
EXTENDING NWRD FROM THE SFC LOW WORK EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ALONG WITH NO STRONG DRY AIR                
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE MN CWA AND POSSIBLY THE WI CWA BY VERY LATE TONIGHT.                        
FOR MON...EVERYTHING EVOLVES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE                   
UPPER LEVEL JET AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL HELP TO AID               
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE ON MON. THE                
MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TOO OUR SOUTH...HELPED IN PART BY THE               
CONVECTION TONIGHT.                                                             
DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO OOZE INTO THE REGION BY LATE MON NIGHT              
INTO TUES. REALLY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEK AFTER THAT POINT AS                
ERN NA LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. POCKETS OF VORT                  
MAXIMA SEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES                  
FOR SHOWERS BUT THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE CTRL GREAT LAKES                    
REGION MORE. HAVE BUMPED DOWN MIN TEMPS FOR FRI INTO NEXT                       
WEEKEND...CLOSER TO LOWER VALUES OF 00Z MEN GUIDANCE BASED ON                   
850MB TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO CTRL MN AND WRN                
WI.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF THE                  
TWIN CITIES AND DULUTH MOVING ENE. ACTIVITY IS ALONG A SHORT WAVE               
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN MN. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 14 DEG C TO               
THE SSW OF THE TWIN CITIES HELPING TO CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THAT               
DIRECTION FOR THE TIME BEING. MORE RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW                    
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS ALONG A                
SURFACE FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ALOFT. THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY              
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN MN AND              
WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE INDICATED SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO              
TRY AND TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER               
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING. A VERY BAGGY PRESSURE              
PATTERN AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S STILL                     
EXPECTED FROM KSTC AND KRWF ON EASTWARD. NAM BUFKIT HYDROLAPSE                  
INCREASING FROM 4 G/KG BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 500 FEET EARLY                   
MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...THERE IS PRETTY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STATUS               
AND FOG. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE WITH CEILING              
BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FEET.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/RAH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
305 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE CO WITH             
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS DOWN INTO THE            
GILA WILDERNESS. CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY TODAY             
AND MOVING VERY LITTLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A NICE SHORTWAVE          
OVER SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. ALL OF THIS            
COMBINED WITH PWATS NEAR 1 INCH HAS ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN              
WITH A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES ALREADY POSTED ACROSS THE REGION.                   
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN/               
WEST CENTRAL MTNS IN LINE WITH 12Z WRF/15Z SREF/18Z RUC13. MOST                 
CONVECTION WILL FADE BY 03Z...BUT THINKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES                   
COULD KEEP A FEW CELLS GOING THEREAFTER. MODEL PWATS REALLY RAMP                
UP MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.4 INCH VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL                 
MTNS WEST. 12Z NAM INDICATES THE CURRENT UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH              
WILL BECOME ORIENTED SW-NE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FROM THE                  
GILA TO AROUND ABQ...SANTA FE AND RATON. RAISED POPS TO HIGH                    
CHANCE/LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
HIGH PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS              
OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SLIDING SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO THE                  
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAISED POPS TO                 
LIKELY AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS IN THIS PATTERN AS DAILY ROUNDS             
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. STORM MOTIONS TUESDAY ARE              
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN MONDAY AND ACT TO THE NORTH                 
AND NORTHWEST. STORM MOTIONS BECOME ERRATIC/SLOW AGAIN WEDNESDAY                
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING.                       
THE FUTURE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF              
OF MEXICO IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR LATER THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE             
CENTER OF CIRCULATION VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST BECOMING WASHED OUT               
OVER TEXAS BY MIDWEEK. ANY MOISTURE ASSCD WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD                
BE INGESTED INTO THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED              
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND.                                 
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN              
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY            
AND COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND                 
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS                
TO 35 KNOTS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR                 
OVERNIGHT WEST OF I 25 AND SOUTH OF I 40.                                       
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z...KD                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW TO MID                
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.  THIS WILL             
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITIES ON AVERAGE WITH AN UPSWING IN STORMS                
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST               
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EARLY IN                
THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHWEST. KD                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  65  95  66  93 /  10  20  20  20              
GALLUP..........................  57  87  57  86 /  30  20  40  30              
GRANTS..........................  52  86  55  86 /  40  20  40  30              
GLENWOOD........................  59  86  60  86 /  50  40  50  30              
CHAMA...........................  47  82  49  80 /  50  30  30  40              
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  82  60  81 /  40  30  40  40              
RED RIVER.......................  48  78  48  72 /  50  40  40  50              
TAOS............................  54  88  53  83 /  40  20  30  40              
SANTA FE........................  58  87  57  86 /  40  30  40  40              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  90  60  89 /  40  20  40  40              
ESPANOLA........................  59  92  59  91 /  40  20  20  30              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  91  69  91 /  30  20  30  40              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  93  67  92 /  30  20  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  88  64  87 /  30  30  40  40              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  92  65  92 /  30  20  40  30              
SOCORRO.........................  68  95  65  94 /  20  20  40  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  55  80 /  40  40  50  50              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  84  56  82 /  40  20  40  30              
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  87  62  87 /  20  20  30  10              
RUIDOSO.........................  55  79  55  79 /  20  50  50  20              
RATON...........................  57  91  56  85 /  20  20  30  30              
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  86  55  83 /  20  20  30  20              
ROY.............................  63  94  61  90 /  10  20  20  10              
CLAYTON.........................  66  96  65  94 /   5  10  10  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  65  96  63  95 /   5  10  20  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  99  68  98 /   5   5   5   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  95  65  95 /   5   5   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  66  95  66  95 /   5   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  67  96  66  96 /   5   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  69  97  69  97 /  10   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/19                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
308 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...CHALLENGES WILL BE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CHANCES THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY...AND TEMPERATURES. 12Z               
MODELS INITIALIZED DECENT AND IN OVERALL AGREEMENT...WILL USE BLEND             
FOR DETAILS. ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO NW BY TUESDAY               
AS UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PROPAGATES EASTWARD.                         
WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT               
GIVEN SW/ZONAL FLOW SINCE NOTHING CAN BE RULED OUT. WILL HIGHLIGHT              
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH 30-40 POPS. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE POPS                
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.                                                        
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAIN SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH                
OF THE FA (SE SD INTO S MN) AND NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER               
NORTH. STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB JET FOCUSED JUST               
SE OF THE FA IN CENTRAL MN TO N WI. THIS FORCING EXPECTED TO                    
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST. THIS LEAVES INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED               
SFC CONVERGENCE AS LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA.              
THIS FEATURE LOCATED FROM SFC LOW THROUGH SE ND INTO NW MN. BEST                
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE LOCATED ALONG THIS TROUGH. THIS FEATURE               
WILL SLOWLY SAG E/SE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST ACROSS                 
THE S FA AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS                
THIS AREA. MUCAPE IS RAPIDLY DECREASING PAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS                
THE N FA WITH MLCAPE NIL. THIS LEAVES THE S FA WITH BEST CHANCES                
FOR CONVECTION AS INVERTED TROUGH GOES THROUGH. RUC DOES SHOW CAP               
TO WEAKEN ENOUGH ALLOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS AREA HAS                  
BEEN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW POINT                 
VALUES APPROACHING 70F. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S FA.              
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL QUESTIONABLE GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS                  
(AOA 15KFT). DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT (50KNTS) FOR SEVERE...BUT              
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING MECHANISM MAY                   
PREVENT WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN GRIDS              
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                
FOR ANY HIDDEN WAVES WHICH MAY GIVE ADDED LIFT. ANY ACTIVITY                    
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.                                                    
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NE MONTANA/IDAHO AREA WILL SLOWLY              
SHIFT EAST AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION BY MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON. EXACT LOCATION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.                 
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO SHIFT FROM NW HALF OF THE FA TO THE SE HALF              
OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                
TUE-WED...NW FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY                 
DRY WX. ONLY CONCERN THIS PERIOD FOR THUNDER WOULD BE WED AS                    
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES JUST NE OF THE FA WITH WEAK INSTABILITY                 
PRESENT. MODELS DIFFER WITH EXACT LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE (GFS                
FURTHER NE AND DRY). PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO              
INSERT POP/WX.                                                                  
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...NW FLOW TO NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD             
WILL PUSH ALL DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND                  
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT                  
WITH THESE FEATURES...SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE 500MB WAVE AT THE              
END OF PERIOD ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE                   
REGION ON SUNDAY. KEPT POPS OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE BUT IF FEATURE IS              
THERE ON FUTURE RUNS WILL WANT TO INTRODUCE SOME POPS IN                        
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. WITH THICKNESSES ON THE WAY DOWN TEMPS WILL               
BE COOLER THAN FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST NORMALS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY AS               
TO EXACT LOCATION SO INCLUDED CB IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL WHERE              
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD STEADY MOST OF THE DAY. STRATUS DECK IS                   
EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH WILL INCLUDE GFK AND TVF FOR PORTIONS OF               
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT                
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG/JK                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1143 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR MOST ELEMENTS. MADE SOME                
TWEAKS TO DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON GRIDS...KEEPING                    
DEWPOINTS A LITTLE CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR BASED              
ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SUPPORT FROM THE NAM. THE RUC APPEARED                 
TOO AGRESSIVE IN MIXING DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE 40S AND LOW 50S                   
REGIONWIDE. CHANGES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A ZONE               
UPDATE.                                                                         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY                    
BEYOND ITS CURRENT MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPIRATION TIME.                            
WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VEERED AND DRY THROUGH               
TUESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING DEWPOINTS FARTHER SOUTH/EAST UNDER WEAK              
INFLUENCE FROM A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOW               
MUCH THIS WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL                     
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXTEND AND/OR REORIENT THE HEAT ADVISORY.                 
&&                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN                
PLAINS. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPS REPORTED OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE              
CWA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAY...OTHER     
THAN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE                 
AREA. A SUBSTANTIAL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS EXPECTED ON                     
TUE...WITH THE RETURN OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. EASTERLY WAVE                    
MOVING ONTO TX GULF COAST ON TUE SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON              
NORTH TX COUNTIES...OTHER THAN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE EAST WINDS         
WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AND THE COMBINATION OF                  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ONCE                   
AGAIN. PLAN ON KEEPING HEAT ADVISORY VALID UNTIL MON PM FOR                     
NOW...WITH THE IDEA THAT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUE.                
MED RANGE MODELS ALL HINT AT RIDGE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT BY WED/THU.               
GFS BRINGS WEAK COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OK BY THU                        
EVENING...THOUGH AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS SCENARIO IN                   
EARLY AUGUST. AT ANY RATE...IT SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT NWLY FLOW              
COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF TSTM CLUSTERS                   
RESULTING FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS MOVING                     
THROUGH THE AREA. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR KS BORDER ON                 
WED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES N OK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                
RAIN FROM PM FRI ONWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA IN ANTICIPATION OF              
SE MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 105  75 104  76 /   0   0   0  10                              
HOBART OK        107  76 107  77 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX 108  77 107  77 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK          104  71 106  70 /   0   0   0  10                              
PONCA CITY OK    102  77 102  78 /   0   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK        104  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-                
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.                                       
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/03                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
212 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                   
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED            
BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST            
CHALLENGE REMAINS THUNDERSTORM AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS            
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW.                                                     
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE TRANSITION ZONE TODAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR              
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED WARM             
LAYER HAS BEEN TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA                
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT MAIN PUSH IS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WITH             
DRIER AND FAR MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF                   
WISCONSIN...STORMS HAVING HARD TIMES STAYING ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE               
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO            
CENTRAL IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN QUITE COOL             
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAKING SOME PROGRESS WITH DEW POINTS                  
SLOWLY RISING.                                                                  
EVENING WEATHER COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL              
BATTLE WARM MID LAYER TEMPERATURES BUT PLENTY OF OTHER FACTORS IN               
PLACE FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. GIVEN LOCATION OF            
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG AND            
JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING AT              
SURGE OF RICH 850 MB THETA-E AIR ALONG WARM FRONT AS WELL AND THIS              
MATCHES OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN DEVELOPING STORMS IN SAME                  
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMPLE ENOUGH            
TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY EVEN ENHANCE            
LOCAL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. STORMS              
WOULD THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...                  
PERHAPS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS THEY TRACK EAST INTO WISCONSIN                
TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT. EITHER WAY...HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT FOR                
THIS SCENARIO.                                                                  
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE              
ESTABLISHED AND ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE                          
NORTHWESTERLY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS NORTHERN              
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER. OUTCOME STILL REMAINS A             
BIT TRICKY BUT BANKING ON A ROUND OR TWO OF CONVECTION GOING MONDAY             
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE                
LATER IN THE DAY TRIGGERED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. AT LEAST              
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL.                    
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL ALSO BE TOUGH AND COULD VARY QUITE A BIT             
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT.                                
BY TUESDAY SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE FURTHER                 
SOUTH AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN. COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN             
THREATS BUT BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTH            
AND EAST BY THEN.                                                               
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
AMPLIFICATION IN UPPER PATTERN WILL PUT WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO                
NORTHWEST FLOW AS ANOMOLOUS UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO EASTERN U.S.              
IN LATER PERIODS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR QUIETER WEATHER...WITH COOLER              
AND DRIER REGIME DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK UNDER NORMALS FOR EARLY             
AUGUST.                                                                         
DRY FORECAST RUNNING EXCEPT FOR TWO PERIODS. SIGNAL STILL THERE IN              
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR WEAK SHORT WAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT             
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND COULD HELP GENERATE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY              
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THREAT IS ON                  
SUNDAY /DAY 7/ SINCE GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT MORE SIGNIFICANT                
IMPULSE DROPPING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER                 
TROUGH. AGAIN...THIS COULD GENERATE ROUND OF CONVECTION AS IT PASSES            
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR DETAILS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS IN THE TAFS. WARM              
AIR IN MID LEVELS BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...THUS CAPPING THE               
ATMOSPHERE FROM CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST                  
OPERATIONAL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG                
PERIPHERY OF THE CAP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS               
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF SITES              
TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME                 
PREFER TO ALLOW SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES TO ADDRESS DETAILS OF                  
SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM                
ABOUT 04.09Z-04.18Z BASED ON MOISTURE LADEN BOUNDARY LAYER DURING               
THIS TIME FRAME.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...SHEA                                                          
AVIATION..........THOMPSON                                                      
</pre> wi