FXUS04 KWBC 121814
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 13/0000 UTC THRU JUL 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

NORTHEAST...
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A FASTER MOTION TO THE
ACTIVITY ACRS THE REGION THAN THE ETA...AS WELL AS HIGHER
AMTS CLOSER TO THE GFS. THUS... PLACED NRLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACRS WRN LI AS A NEG TILTED TROF DIGS IN TO THE WEST...
INCREASING H2 DIVERGENCE. PWS NR 2 INCHES AND H8 INFLOW CLOSE
TO GALE FORCE ALSO ADD CREDENCE TO HEAVIER AMTS. LOCAL AMTS
OF 5-6 INCHES WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE. THE MANUAL PROGS ARE A
COMPROMISE TWDS THE FASTER GFS MOTION PCPN EXPECTING TO PIVOT
RIGHT OVR CAPE COD LATE IN THE PD.

SOUTHEAST...
LOW LVL SWLYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHEST AMTS TO BE WHERE
TRAINING COULD OCCUR ALG THE SEABREEZE FNT IN THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

UPR MIDWEST...
KEPT W/CONTINUITY AS MDL MASS FIELDS CONT TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF MDT RAINS DVLPG ACRS IA TNGT...UNFORTUNATELY
THEY DO NOT DVLP THE PCPN DESPITE THE DIVERGENCE SEEN AT THE
NOSE OF THE H2 JET AND THE EXPECTED PWS. LOCAL AMTS OF AN
INCH WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE.

NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT/MEXICO...
THE MDLS LOOK WAY UNDERDONE ON AMTS IN WRN MEX...AS CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW STORMS ALG THE WEST COAST WHILE NEITHER
MDL PLACES ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IN THAT REGION. BROAD BRUSHED
HIGHER AMTS ALG THE COAST...CONSERVATIVELY BRINGING AN AREA 
OF 2 INCHES ALG THE COASTLINE FROM MAZATLAN NWD...AS MOIST 
INFLOW FROM TROP DEP 3 AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT LEAD TO HVY 
RAINS THRU THE PD.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 221080 230087 234092 240095 263108 284122 297129 308136 
      319143 323144 328144 330142 331137 332128 334122 345132 
      349133 354133 359128 360125 360120 358112 354107 361104 
      364104 366101 369094 372090 377095 378101 384098 390094 
      392091 395091 398083 399078 402076 406073 411074 414072 
      416069 416065 415060 417054 417048 416041 412034 403024 
      396022 392021 389024 380035 371045 362046 355050 349054 
      347056 344055 332052 325055 323059 330062 333065 330069 
      326071 322076 319082 312082 302075 291066 269053 257047 
      250039 241030 235025 230024 
 0.01 495698 486679 484676 478676 458683 439684 434684 430683 
      419678 410674 401672 396673 394673 391676 387675 384677 
      380678 372678 366685 357693 345704 328743 318764 314771 
      307779 304783 297786 288788 276792 264797 255801 252804 
      252808 254814 257825 259832 258837 260844 262849 269856 
      271860 269865 267869 267874 264879 262883 255891 250898 
      247901 247905 246911 246918 256917 269915 275912 278910 
      286902 288901 289902 290909 292921 293928 296931 299931 
      304926 309924 312921 318918 321915 324912 325910 329901 
      335881 340879 342882 341893 343897 348901 356905 359902 
      362897 368888 391851 403830 405825 409820 416811 423800 
      429793 437780 441774 443772 447774 450786 454786 460783 
      471778 477778 481777 486773 491766 494753 496746 495739 
      496725 495698 
 0.01 513874 507853 500837 495829 491823 485817 479812 472810 
      466808 453807 447806 441808 433809 428811 424814 422822 
      424833 431851 438867 446882 455896 457899 458903 452906 
      446907 442901 433887 428880 423876 413869 406867 399867 
      395868 388868 384870 383874 385884 390901 401940 403948 
      406957 411972 416990 419997 419002 418006 417012 418019 
      420021 423022 425021 428016 431011 434008 438005 443001 
      448997 452989 456983 458980 461978 467973 469969 472967 
      475964 479963 485962 501963 507963 515961 518959 520954 
      520944 516924 513919 510914 509909 513891 513877 513874 
 0.01 456097 453093 448092 438094 433092 428089 425087 423092 
      424097 422101 415111 406094 406100 403106 394109 388112 
      385115 377122 374126 373131 375134 379132 389128 393127 
      399126 406127 411125 414122 420121 426128 434120 437116 
      442115 447117 450117 452113 455105 456097 
 0.01 317052 317046 315042 314039 311036 307030 301024 292015 
      285010 278008 271007 261007 252009 248009 248012 251018 
      257024 266033 271038 277042 291049 305055 312056 315055 
      317052 
 0.25 224074 232082 242090 248094 254098 266105 278111 285109 
      289108 293109 299112 304116 311120 317122 320121 322117 
      323113 325111 331108 337109 342112 345108 343100 341092 
      338085 335082 332081 330082 329087 330094 329096 327095 
      320091 314092 310092 307091 302088 292077 285072 280069 
      269063 258056 252052 248047 244042 237040 228038 
 0.25 475713 469705 465701 462700 456699 449700 441701 435701 
      427695 420690 414687 407687 399689 392697 386703 379709 
      362721 356727 352735 345747 336760 329774 319787 311800 
      308803 304806 298805 291804 282803 275804 268804 262804 
      260807 267810 273811 280815 285817 291821 293825 293828 
      289836 286841 283846 283851 285854 289855 290858 288865 
      286875 287880 289882 294881 297879 303874 309868 314863 
      319848 324834 331822 351796 356790 362784 371780 376778 
      379780 385781 392780 394781 395785 395789 396793 399796 
      403796 408793 411790 413787 416778 421772 426764 435759 
      440756 446752 457742 462738 465734 468729 469723 475713 
 0.25 504934 504925 502916 499913 496909 491907 489914 487919 
      484922 481927 479932 483933 486935 489937 492937 495938 
      500940 502939 504934 
 0.25 485867 484859 482850 480845 477839 471831 464823 456821 
      451823 448826 447831 448835 450842 453858 455866 458869 
      465876 475880 481883 484880 484872 485867 
 0.25 448936 448932 447930 444928 437923 433917 429909 423900 
      418895 410891 402890 399890 398893 400900 403908 407921 
      410930 413939 417952 420961 422974 426982 430989 433988 
      437985 442979 447971 449967 450964 450961 447957 446951 
      446941 448936 
 0.25 369818 367815 366814 363814 360816 358818 358819 356821 
      355824 354825 353828 352830 351832 352836 352839 355842 
      358839 359837 360836 362833 363831 364829 365827 366825 
      367822 368821 369818 
 0.25 355849 355845 353843 352847 352850 351851 351854 351858 
      350862 350866 353866 354864 354860 355856 355853 355850 
      355849 
 0.25 365068 364065 364064 361063 358064 357065 357068 357072 
      358073 361073 363072 364070 365068 
 0.50 452717 451712 448710 444708 435710 428703 420694 416692 
      411692 407693 402697 398706 394710 389712 378716 373720 
      369724 357742 351750 345758 340767 336777 326793 321803 
      313807 305813 303815 303818 306824 308830 311828 317820 
      324812 330805 336799 344790 351782 357774 361765 366757 
      372753 375754 384758 387760 389767 392771 399771 405768 
      408768 414765 417761 423752 428747 434744 441737 447731 
      452717 
 0.50 473854 472851 472850 469847 468845 466844 464843 462845 
      462846 460851 460852 460855 462859 465861 466862 469863 
      472864 473859 473856 473854 
 0.50 436963 437955 436947 434932 427925 424914 421907 419904 
      416901 413902 412910 413917 415925 419935 422939 423946 
      422950 423958 427969 431971 434968 436963 
 0.50 310845 308842 305842 301848 298852 295858 291864 290870 
      291876 295875 299873 303867 305863 309856 310848 310845 
 0.50 224070 237083 250094 258098 266102 272104 276102 281100 
      288100 294101 299103 307110 310112 315111 316109 317105 
      315103 307098 298094 292086 285078 279073 270069 262065 
      254060 250057 248053 245049 242046 235043 228042 
 1.00 423710 422704 420699 417697 413696 407699 408707 404714 
      396719 388722 384728 376734 374737 374741 381746 386747 
      392751 396757 401760 407759 412757 414755 417749 419738 
      420732 422715 423710 
 1.00 223066 232074 239082 248089 258097 265099 269099 271090 
      277087 274081 264072 252069 248064 245060 242054 237049 
      233047 226046 
 1.50 417723 416717 414714 411713 409715 407719 404722 399726 
      395730 392734 390740 394746 399751 402754 406755 411752 
      414746 416737 416729 417723 
 1.50 224063 229069 237076 244083 250089 255093 260096 265096 
      265093 260084 253076 247069 241060 234053 229051 226051 
 2.00 413721 411717 410722 408725 403729 399734 397737 396741 
      397744 400747 405751 408751 410748 412743 413738 413730 
      413726 413721 
 2.00 224060 230066 235071 241077 246083 252089 258093 262093 
      261090 256084 250077 245071 241066 235060 229057 226056  
 
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