AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
308 PM MDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.                             
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS             
THE REGION WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE FOUR                
CORNERS REGION MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO ATTM. AT THE              
SFC...LEE TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH             
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST             
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING ATTM.                   
TONIGHT...POTENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS EXTREME SW COLORADO PROGGED TO TO            
LIFT INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS              
NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH              
WAVE...HAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                        
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THIS                     
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEYS            
THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER AIR CHARTS                   
INDICATING PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS THE FOUR             
CORNERS REGION TODAY...OWNING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAINFALL WITH STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH WITH STEERING            
FLOW BETWEEN 20-25KTS...ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING TO REMAIN                  
LIMITED. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND                  
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                
INDICATING INVERTED V PROFILES...WITH MORE WIND THAN RAIN EXPECTED.             
THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT DOES HOWEVER PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW            
STRONGER STORMS...WITH HAIL LESS THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS             
TO NEAR 50 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. LOWERING PRESSURES IN ADVANCE OF               
WAVE SHOULD PUSH LEE TROUGH OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALLOWING              
FOR FRONT TO SURGE TO NEAR THE PALMER DVD BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN                  
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH             
SOME WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE...AND POSSIBLE                       
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...HAVE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS              
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.                                                 
TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING             
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH DEVELOPING             
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS WITHIN            
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH MODELS INDICATING WEAK PV LOBE MOVING            
ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION...AND HAVE GONE WITH             
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND            
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS             
THE AREA...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW             
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. -MW                                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WED THROUGH MON)                                                               
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WED THROUGH FRI...                                    
WED THROUGH FRI...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES              
TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW ON WED AND ANCHORS ITSELF THERE                     
THROUGH THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CNTRL                   
ROCKIES WILL BE IN THE NERN/E CNTRL QUADRANT OF THE UPPER                       
HIGH...SO COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFING.                 
LIKELY COULD SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE                 
HIGH SENDING RE-ENFORCING WAVES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND MESOSCALE               
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...UNLESS MUCH DRIER AIR                 
ADVECTS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...WHICH IS POSSIBLE BY               
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. I HAVE INCREASED POPS/WX TO HIGH CHANCE FOR               
THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WED/THU. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO              
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS(LESS THAN 10KTS) AND H7-H5              
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5-7 G/KG(MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/                 
I-25 CORRIDOR). ALWAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROCK AND MUD SLIDES GIVEN              
STEADY...ALMOST WIDESPREAD...MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT             
IS POSSIBLE FOR TOO MUCH SURFACE-BASED STABILITY ACROSS THE SERN                
CO PLAINS IF STRATUS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT TSTMS COULD                  
DEVELOP OVER OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS.                
SAT THROUGH MON...ENSEMBLE DATA...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...HAVE THE                
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT                 
SW/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS                   
KEEPS THE CNTRL ROCKIES IN THE NW-NLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN THREAT               
FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE                  
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE STEERING CURRENTS BEING NLY...NOT SURE HOW                  
MUCH ACTIVITY WOULD GET INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO PLAINS.              
WILL KEEP LOW POPS/WX FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN/EVE.                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY                 
SEP. METZE                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH                
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTORMS OVR THE CONTDVD            
AND WRN MTN RANGES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH                   
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE                
WITH THESE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CO TONIGHT            
AND THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING TO              
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN PLAINS. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT                  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/MVFR                
CIGS OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
324 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF                
THE FCST AREA THROUGH TUE AND DISSIPATE BY WED. HIGH PRES WILL                  
THEN REGAIN CONTROL WED INTO THU...THEN GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THU NIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO MAKE DECENT PROGRESS              
ACRS THE CWFA FRI INTO SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUN. HIGH PRES                 
MOVES BACK IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
WEAK SFC TROF/BNDRY LOOKS TO HAVE MOVE JUST S INSIDE BERKELEY                   
COUNTY BUT MAINLY LINGERS FROM KMYR TO KAGS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSED              
TDA...THE LEFTOVER STRATIFORM CLOUDS REMAIN HOLDING ON STRONG IN                
THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWFA WHILE THE SRN 2/3 HAVE SEEN THE STRATIFORM              
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND TRANSITION TO DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CU                        
FORMATION. CONVECTIVE SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN FAR SRN                
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH WERE MOSTLY DEVOID OF CLOUDS UNTIL THE               
PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS AREA ALSO SHOWS THE MOST INSTABILITY...WITH                
RUC PROJECTIONS OF 2000-2500 CAPE AND -4 TO -5 LI. THE CAP WAS                  
WEAK TO BEGIN WITH PER THE 12Z KCHS RAOB SO AS THE STRATUS SHIELD               
ERODES...SCT SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FIRE FROM S TO N ACRS THE              
CWFA. WITH WEAK UPR LVL WINDS...PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND CONTINUED               
HIGH INSTABILITY WITH WBZ OVER 14 KFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE                   
SUBJECT TO HAVING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR HEAVY PERSISTENT                 
RAIN. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTN THEN                  
TRANSITION TO CHC POPS TNGT. AS THE WEAK SFC TROF/BNDRY SHIFTS S                
TNGT...SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EVOLVE INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD              
LLVL STRATUS CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD BRING TO AN END ANY REMAINING                  
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...BUT WILL ACT TO KEEP A WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN                
PLACE OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS TDA REACHING THE MID/UPR 80S N AND LWR               
90S S WILL ONLY DROP TO THE MID AND UPR 70S.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
THE SFC TROF/BNDRY WILL WOBBLE OVER THE AREA TMRW AND TMRW                      
EVE...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TMRW NIGHT. VERY LITTLE                    
CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...THUS THE SFC CONVERGENCE FEATURE                
WILL AGAIN WORK WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE               
SEABREEZE AND A WEAK CAP TO PROMOTE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TMRW. HAVE                  
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THE CWFA TMRW...MAINLY FOR AFTN                      
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE THUS RUN WITH A SIMILAR MAX TEMPS SCHEME...                   
LOOKING FOR UPR 80S N AND LOWER 90S S. AGAIN...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM              
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY PERSISTENT RAIN.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA              
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.               
THE 27/12Z GFS IS BY FAR THE WETTEST OF THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL                 
MODELS DURING THIS TIME AND HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS                     
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAM-WRF WHICH ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER. WILL NOT               
GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SHOWS POP <10 PCNT               
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SINCE RESIDUAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES                 
INCLUDING THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PRESENT COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE               
INSTABILITY. WL GO WITH A 20/40 POP REGIME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS                
RESIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE                 
16. ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS                
OF HEATING WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE            
BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND LONG-WAVE TROUGHING BECOMES                  
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE 12Z                 
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS            
RUNS BUT STILL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA            
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN THE LEE OF THE                  
APPALACHIANS IN A PSEUDO WEDGE CONFIGURATION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME             
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR FAR SOUTHERN GA BY                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO FOCUS ISOLD-                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
LINGERING FRONT/TROF BOUNDARY N OF KCHS ALONG WITH DEEPLY UNSTABLE              
AND MOIST ATMOS WILL MAKE FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN. CONVECTION             
ALREADY BREAKING OUT S OF KSAV...SO THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST                    
TERMINAL TO SEE REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION              
TO MAKE A LATER START AT KCHS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME REDUCTION              
IN FLIGHT CATEGORY THERE AS WELL.                                               
BY THIS EVE...DEEP ELY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE               
AND THIS LOOKS TO TAKE THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS BY LATE THIS EVE.                
SHOULD RAINFALL AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL DIRECTLY...THEN LIGHT WINDS              
OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO MAKE FOR FOG FORMATION LATE. AM GOING TO LOOK                
FOR BOTH REDUCTIONS TO BRING IFR CONDS TO BOTH TERMINALS DURING                 
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW...LOW/MVFR CLOUDS WILL                  
LINGER BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY                      
TMRW...BUT WILL LET LATER TAF SETS TACKLE THAT ISSUE.                           
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH                 
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND                
PRE-DAWN SHALLOW GROUND FOG.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK SFC TROF/BNDRY WILL LINGER NEAR THE S SANTEE RIVER THROUGH               
TUE AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENTS                        
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THUS...WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB                
10 KT...AND THIS WILL ALSO KEEP WAVES AOB 3 FT. THE BNDRY WILL                  
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD BACK OVER              
THE WATERS.                                                                     
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                   
THERE ARE NO MAJOR MARINE ISSUES FOR WED-SAT WITH WNDS AND SEAS                 
HOLDING WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC/77                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
924 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH                  
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT DOWN ACROSS SECTIONS OF GA AS                 
PERSISTENT STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DIE OUT. DESPITE THE SUN GOING                
DOWN...THE STORMS ARE STILL HOLDING THEIR OWN AS LATEST RUC SHOWS               
SOME WEAK 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BEING AN                     
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THAT              
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND              
SURFACE TROF OVER THE MIDLANDS...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.         
AM SEEING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UP I-26 PROPAGATING TO THE SE AND                 
WILL MAKE IT INTO BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES WITHIN THE                   
HOUR. MADE NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR TEMPS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY                  
NIGHT RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE FORCING OF               
THE SURFACE TROUGH...CONVERGENCE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DECENT                 
INSTABILITY PRESENT HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. THE SEA                  
BREEZE WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AND PUSH INLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN              
CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMO AND MODELS ARE ON THE BORDERLINE OF LIKELY              
POPS FOR TOMORROW...BUT HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF THIS.                   
IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT ON MONDAY THE HIGH TEMPERATURES                
WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND FOR                     
MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
A LINGERING SFC TROF AND THE AFTN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WL BE THE              
PRIMARY FOCI FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTM TUE AFTN/EVNG AS A WEAKNESS IN            
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WL BEGIN TO FILTER S            
INTO THE RGN WED AS THE WEAKNESS FILLS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE                
BRIEFLY REBUILDS BACK INTO THE SE STATES. HIGH PWATS AND LGT                    
STEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A CONTINUED RISK FOR HVY RAIN AND WET              
MICROBURSTS. PCPN CHANCES WL BE ON THE DECR WED AFTN INTO THU AS A              
RESULT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR TSTMS WED AFTN WL RESIDE ACROSS SE            
GA WHERE GREATEST LOW-LVL CONVG AND MOISTURE WL RESIDE.                         
THE UPR RIDGE WL BEGIN TO ERODE AND RETROGRADE TO THE W THU AS                  
LONG-WAVE TROFG BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NE STATES. THIS WILL             
ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP S THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLC RGN              
INTO THE FCST AREA THU NGT INTO FRI. THE VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO             
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH...ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE FNT WITH                 
26/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS OFFERING THE SLOWEST SOLN. ATTM PREFER TO                
LEAN CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF                 
WHICH BOTH SHOW FROPA OCCURRING LATE THU NGT OR ERLY FRI MRNG. THE              
FNT IS XPCTD BECOME Q-STNRY ACROSS NRN FL OR FAR SRN SE GA SAT AS               
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK              
OF THE PCPN WELL TO THE S BUT WITH BNDRY FCST TO LINGER NEARBY WL               
NEED TO KEEP A LEAST SLGT CHANCE POPS GOING FRI THROUGH SUN.                    
TEMPS WL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR SLGTLY ABV NORMAL THROUGH THU...                
THEN DROP TO NEAR OR SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL LVLS FOR THE WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WITH ACTIVITY IN SE GA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MORE CONVECTION                   
FIRING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA...WILL HAVE TO INPUT SOME SH/TS ACTIVITY              
IN THE SAV TAF FOR LATE THIS EVENING. CHS IS A BIGGER QUESTION                  
MARK BUT WILL ELECT TO AT LEAST MENTION CB IN THE TERMINAL FOR                  
LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR TOMORROW ALTHOUGH AM                
GOING WITH VCTS TO MATCH UP WITH A HIGHER POP.                                  
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH                 
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND                
PRE-DAWN SHALLOW GROUND FOG.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY                 
NIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.                 
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF TRANQUIL                    
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT . A                      
FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE               
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS              
IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.                                       
THERE ARE NO MAJOR MARINE ISSUES FOR TUE-FRI WITH WNDS AND SEAS                 
HOLDING WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PY                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                               
LATEST SFC MAP INDICATING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL IL. BEST RETURN FLOW WELL WEST AND NORTH              
OF OUR AREA AND SHOULD STAY THERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RUC FCST               
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING NEARLY AS MUCH LOW LVL MOISTURE LATE TNT               
AS WAS THE CASE YSTDY AT THIS TIME...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                
SHALLOW GROUND FOG MUCH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME                   
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS...FCST IN GREAT                  
SHAPE. NO EVENING UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                              
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC              
WINDS TO VEER INTO THE SE MONDAY MORNING. LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION                
PATTERN ACRS ERN IOWA MAY PRODUCE SOME SCT CONVECTION TOWARDS MRNG              
BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NW WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CI AFFECTING MAINLY               
THE PIA TAF SITE.                                                               
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS WILL                 
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MOST                 
AREAS...MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE                
CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS             
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LAKE                   
SUPERIOR VICINITY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BY                
THAT TIME WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN                     
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT AND BRING HIGHS ON TUESDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO                  
MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS              
DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.                                      
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SLOWER TREND IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT                 
THROUGH ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BEGIN WITH POPS IN THE CENTRAL              
AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EVERYWHERE ON                      
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OF THE SHOWERY VARIETY...SO WILL             
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO SPOTTY AERIAL COVERAGE. FOR NOW            
WILL JUST HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...             
HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF THE SLOWING TREND OF THE               
COLD FRONT KEEPS UP.                                                            
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
SORT OF A COMPLICATED FORECAST GETTING INTO THE LONGER RANGE. THE               
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE FAST QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW                  
SETTING UP ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD. THIS LOWER                 
AMPLIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT THE COOL AIR DOME THAT WILL FOLLOW THE              
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW ONCE IT GETS TO THE OHIO             
VALLEY...WITH THE DEEPER COOL AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.             
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING OFF AS MUCH...AS WELL AS                
ALLOWING A FASTER MODIFICATION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z LONGER              
RANGE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO                 
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO               
RIVER NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z VERSIONS DO NOT SHOW THIS AND KEEPS            
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.                                                          
TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT...WILL RAISE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES             
SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS            
JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE            
HIGH PENETRATES THU/FRI AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE EFFECTS OF THE                
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE. SOME LOW POPS MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE                
SOUTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
MAJOR RAINS HAVE DEPARTED AND ARE ENTERING INTO NEW AIR MASS. UPR               
TROF STILL NOT QUITE THRU WITH SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER MOST OF             
AREA. RUC INDICATING VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM UGN TO ERN IA AND                 
WORKING SE THRU NRN IL THIS AFTN. POST-VORT SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON            
VIS SATL ENTERING NW IL. BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AFTN HEATING               
OCNLY POPPING BRIEF SMALL SHOWERS. HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT FOR NOW BUT              
WILL PROBLY RE-INSERT AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR EARLY EVENING IN SOUTH            
AND SOUTHEAST. ENHANCED BREEZE FROM LAKE IS STEADILY RACING WEST                
THRU OHARE TO JOT AND DPA BY 400 PM. WILL NOT BE BOTHERING WITH RAIN            
CHANCES BEHIND THIS FEATURE.                                                    
RUC SHOWING SLIGHT TROFING IN UPR FLOW MOVING INTO NW IL AFTER DARK             
THIS EVENING AND PROBLY DIVING SE IN WRN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. THIS            
SLIGHTLY REFLECTED IN OTHER MODELS BUT SHUD HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT              
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING IN MID LVLS.                  
RADIATIVE DECOUPLING IN LOWER LVL WILL WEAKEN WINDS TO NEAR CALM AND            
WITH SO MUCH SFC MSTR BEING TRAPPED...WILL LIKELY BE FOGGING UP. UPS            
FOG PRGM OUTPUTS AN INDEX OF 0.5 AND A -4 CROSSOVER...SUGGESTING                
AREAS LESS THAN 1/2 MI OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY             
NOW BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH AND HOW SOON FOG STARTS DROPPING THIS                 
EVENING TO ASCERTAIN A BETTER FEEL ON FOG INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.                  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG OVER AREA SUNDAY AND UNDER COMPLETE                     
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                 
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACRS THE LAKES WILL PERMIT SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN             
AND ADVECT CI/AC UP MS VLY INTO NRN IL. MAY HAVE MORE AREAS OF FOG              
SUN NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL NOT PUT              
IN FCST FOR NOW. APPEARS NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE TUES              
NGT AND WED. MODELS ATTEMPTING TO SWING WEAK UPR TROF THRU MON NGT              
BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO INSERT RAIN CHANCES AT THAT POINT.                
AFTER WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE WEEK DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS             
AND SLIGHTLY SUBNORMAL LOWS.                                                    
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1230 AM CDT                                                                     
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MID LEVEL TROF HAS CLEARED SKIES OVER NORTHERN            
IL AND IN TONIGHT. PATCHY CU STILL SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER               
EAST CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL IN WHERE LAKE BREEZE AND FRONTAL               
CONVERGENCE CAUSED BUILD UPS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL                    
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE. AT                   
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED VICINITY QUAD CITIES HAS BROUGHT               
NEAR CALM WINDS TO THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN              
WITH DEWPOINTS NOW DROPPING INTO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER NORTH                   
CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 60 IN CHICAGO. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS             
AND SOGGY GROUND...THE DRY AIR MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE FORMATION OF VERY SHALLOW INVERSION OVERNIGHT.               
EXPECT FOG TO BE VERY LOCALIZED AND MAINLY AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.               
SINCE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. BY MID             
MORNING WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP. SHOULD BE GOOD SET              
UP FOR LAKE BREEZE TODAY BUT WITH WARM LAKE WATER DONT EXPECT IT TO             
BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...MAYBE AROUND 10 KTS AT ORD AND MDW. MAY BE               
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS BY             
MID TO LATE MORNING. BUT STABILIZING LAKE BREEZE SHOULD SWEEP THAT              
AWAY FROM CHICAGO AND GARY TAFS BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIE OFF              
AND SKIES TO CLEAR BY SUNDAY EVENING.                                           
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
235 PM CDT                                                                      
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.             
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST. NEXT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS              
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW              
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORT WAVE MONDAY WITH                
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND SHIFT WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
IN TERMS OF THE NEARSHORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN             
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS              
AND WAVES ARE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING                      
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 839 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                               
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST THIS                
EVENING BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO CNTRL IL. DEW              
POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS                  
EVENING...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YSTDY AT THIS TIME.                 
LATEST RUC BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO NEAR ROCKFORD              
BY 12Z SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                    
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT                 
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YSTDYS RAINFALL SHOULD               
HELP TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAWN. CURRENT FCST IN GOOD              
SHAPE SO NO EVENING UPDATE NEEDED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN IL OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR               
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. LOW LVLS MIXED OUT              
QUITE WELL THIS AFTN WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO             
LOWER 60S. LATE EVENING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGEST BEST AREAS               
FOR FOG WL BE FROM SPI TO BMI AND EAST TWDS CMI. BEST TIME FRAME                
FOR ANY FOG WL BE FROM 09Z-12Z. LIGHT SFC WINDS WL GRDLY BECOME                 
EAST SUN MRNG WITH SPEEDS OF FROM 5 TO 8 KTS DURING THE AFTN. OTHER             
THAN THE SHALLOW GROUND FOG POTENTIAL TWDS MRNG...VFR CONDITIONS                
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.                                     
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                         
COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING             
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. A LITTLE MOISTURE IS STILL POOLED BEHIND THE              
FRONT AND IS CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS            
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S UP BY GALESBURG. THERE               
WILL LIKELY BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A WHILE              
DUE TO BLOW-OFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OTHERWISE SKIES              
SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY SOON THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
QUITE PLEASANT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S                   
TONIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS HIGHS FROM 85 TO 90             
ON MONDAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ON TUESDAY.                     
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                       
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE HAD SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING               
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TIME WILL BE SHORT FOR ANY DEEP MOISTURE TO                
RETURN IN TIME FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR            
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND                 
WEDNESDAY NEAR THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT            
CLEAR OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP                 
BEING SLOWER AS SUGGESTED BY THE NEW 12Z GFS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND                
THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND                
LOWER 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1208 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR EVE UPDATE WAS THUNDERSTORM TRENDS EARLY THIS                  
MORNING.  TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER ND/MN FORMED IN RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF MANITOBA JET STREAK AND SHRT WV ALONG CDFNT.  VFR STRATUS             
IN H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO NWRN IA AND CENTRAL/SRN             
MN WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SOURCE AND DEPTH TO                 
TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF EXISTING SUPERCELLS.  00Z RUC              
SHOWS H85 CIN ERODE BY 06Z OVER SRN MN WITH CAPES 3-4K J/KG AND PUSH            
EWD TOWARD MS RIVER BY 12Z.  MEAN WIND WOULD CONTINUE CARRYING MCS              
ELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET                 
INCREASING CORFIDI VECTORS MAY PULL SMALLER ELEMENTS INTO NERN IA               
AND SWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS                   
FURTHER THROUGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NERN CORNER OF FORECAST AREA.               
WILL UPDATE HWO TO INCLUDE SOME SEVERE MENTION CONSIDERING                      
INSTABILITY AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE INTO                
WIND POTENTIAL.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP ACROSS WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW                  
CENTERED ACROSS SRN MANITOBA STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CNTRL                
ND/WRN SD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING             
INTO NRN ROCKIES. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING  ACROSS CNTRL ND              
INTO WRN SD AS WELL...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE            
LOW INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/NE/WRN IA AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK               
INTO THE 70S. AHEAD OF THE NRN ROCKIES WAVE...HAVE A WEAK VORT MAX              
OVER SE SD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT...WHICH COULD              
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN CWA               
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NRN CWA UNDER FAVORABLE                 
UPPER JET REGION...WITH A WEAK JET STREAK LOCATED OVER SRN MN/WRN WI            
LATE TONIGHT. LLJ INCREASES LATE TONIGHT TO NEARLY 30-40KT...ALONG              
WITH THE WARM FRONT INDICATED NICELY IN THE H85 THETA-E FIELD                   
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.                  
INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED INTO CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A            
RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 70S IN               
ACROSS THE AREA. GRADIENT ALSO CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA             
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SAG                   
SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT               
NOTED IN ALL THE MODELS. 12Z MODELS PROG COLD FRONT TO REACH NRN CWA            
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO DID ADJUST POPS                    
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SOME              
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN CWA INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT              
EXPECT THE SRN CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MORE            
OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO                 
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOK             
LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER JET              
INTERACTION ALOFT...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED INTO CENTRAL IOWA.             
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THAT TIME                 
PERIOD. ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT               
SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO                 
MONITOR CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME                   
DESTABILIZING...AND END UP WITH MORE OF A DRIZZLE/RAIN EVENT. FRONT             
THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER               
AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MN/IA INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL               
US. H85 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH                   
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR               
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING/SFC HI PRESSURE WILL                  
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.             
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...27/06Z                                                              
PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING.  MODELS                
ARE CERTAINLY SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR ACTIVITY BUT QUESTION IS WHERE.              
AT THE MOMENT THE CONSENSUS APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OVER MN              
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN IA EARLY MON                   
MORNING.  SINCE TIMING AND LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN...HAVE ONLY                 
VCNTYS MENTIONED AT KMCW/KALO FOR THE MOMENT.                                   
ANOTHER CONCERN INVOLVES LLWS.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE                
WITH SELY SFC WINDS.  LLWS MARGINAL HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR               
TIME BEING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ALBRECHT/SMALL                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
419 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TNGT AND MONDAY...LITTLE TO CHG FROM ONGOING FCST. PER AVIATION                 
DISCUSSION...SOME CONCERN FOR CONVECTION ALG NRN BORDER                         
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WARMING ALFT INCREASES. NERN            
CORNER MOST VULNERABLE PERHAPS AS WEAKNESS IN FLOW MOVES OVER THERE             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE               
WRN COUNTIES WITH THE INCREASE IN BNDRY WINDS FCST. NOT MUCH CHG IN             
THE EAST. TMRW MAINLY UNCHANGED AS WELL BUT DID RAISE DEW POINTS A              
BIT OVER THE ERN COUNTIES MORE IN LINE WITH A NAM/MOS BLEND.                    
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST AND FLOW TURNS TO            
THE SOUTHWEST UPSTREAM.  PER LATEST WATER VAPOR...MODELS SHOWING A              
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT OF THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. FAIRLY                  
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY ON IN LOW LAYERS DIMINISHES TOWARD                  
SUNRISE.  SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD BUT PERHAPS NOT WAS MILD AS             
TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING EXPECTED.  HAVE GONE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER             
70S BUT IF WINDS STAY UP...COULD BE MORE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST.                  
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP BETTER LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND               
NORTH. HAVE THUS TRIMMED POPS TO JUST THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL CORNER              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                                                              
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE                       
CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE...STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TUESDAY TO BE             
MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS SHORTWAVE FLATTENS UPPER FLOW BUT BY              
LATE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN LIFT SHIFTS EAST.  KEPT POPS             
FROM ABOUND 20 PERCENT NEAR I70 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHCENTRAL               
CORNER COUNTIES. WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GIVEN CAPES IN             
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.              
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE              
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WOULD GO WARMER STILL BUT EXPECTING INCREASING             
CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING BY AFTERNOON HOURS.                                      
TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST AND DRAGS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO             
AREA.  INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO 50 PERCENT NORTH.                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE             
SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.                                            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND              
THURSDAY.  SHORTWAVES STILL IN PLAY AND FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING             
THE TIME.  KEPT POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN                
UPPER ENERGY TO THE EAST BUT STILL OVERRUNNING OF BOUNDARY...THEN               
LINGERED 20 TO 30 POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE                
AREA. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY GENERALLY ALONG                  
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.                                                     
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT LATEST GFS RUNS HINT OF             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHWEST UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY              
INTO SATURDAY.  YESTERDAY`S RIDGE RUNNER FOR SATURDAY MOVING FURTHER            
NORTH.  THUS UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS...KEPT WEEKEND FORECAST DRY.                
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THEN               
AROUND 90 FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                      
PF                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID-LVL CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS LOW LVL CU FIELD DVLPS. MOST NOTABLE              
FEATURE ON SHORT TERM MODEL FCST IS THE WARMING ALFT. THUS, WITH MID            
LVL CLDS DSPTG...AND WARMING PRECLUDING LTL IF ANY VERTICAL DVLPMNT             
IN CU FIELD...DON`T SEE MUCH CHC FOR CONVECTION IN THE EARLY                    
EVENING.                                                                        
OVERNIGHT, AM WATCHING AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO WCNTRL NE TRAILING             
OFF INTO NERN CO. THIS IS A SUBTLE FEATURE DEPICTED ON MOISTURE                 
CHANNEL. SHORT TERM RUC FCST HAS THIS BRUSHING NRN COUNTIES LATER               
THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER IS QUITE WARM AND FAIRLY DRY            
ALFT SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER, WILL NEED             
TO BE WATCHED ALTHOUGH, IN ANY CASE, IS LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF TAF             
SITES. OTHER CONCERN OVRNGT IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS EVENT. SOUNDINGS              
SHOW WINDS INCREASING QUITE A BIT IN THE BNDRY LYR OVRNGT ESP. WRN              
PTN OF THE CWA. WILL PASS ON TO EVENING SHIFT FWIW. WITH STGR BNDRY             
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, VSBYS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGHOUT THE FCST              
PD WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING. FLAT CU SHOULD BE RE-DVLPG BY LATE                
TMRW MRNG AS STG CAPPING CONTINUES TO DVLP.                                     
SK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SK/PF                                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1048 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUD WORDING...AND FINE TUNED THE              
WINDS A BIT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB...BUT FCST AND                
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW EVEN A SMALL MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT                   
GOING HIGHS...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES ATTM.                               
OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE MINIMAL TSRA CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                
MODELS SUGGESTING DRY LINE TO DEVELOP AND SURGE WESTWARD INTO                   
EASTRN COLORADO...WITH SECOND AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER               
THE SOUTH. MORNING RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT DRYLINE                                  
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FORCING ALONG FEATURE REMAINS WEAK.                        
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL HINTING AT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE AND WITH               
AREA OF ACCAS ALREADY DEVELOPING CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN                      
ISOLATED STORM. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN OVER HOW MUCH               
HEATING THERE WILL BE SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH OF LOW                   
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A               
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS                  
STRATUS DEVELOPING.                                                             
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME ON               
MONDAY/TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW EXITING HIGH              
PRESSURE TODAY. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH               
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
THE MAIN CONSIDERATIONS ARE POPS AND FOG/STRATUS FOR THIS MORNING.              
FOR TODAY...THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE 600 TO 1400 BUT H7 TEMPERATURES ARE            
AROUND 17 C NEAR THE TROUGH. ALSO H7-5 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING SO              
WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM (14             
C) MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO H7-5 LAYER MEAN RH IS BETTER WITH 600-1000            
CAPE. HOWEVER FEEL THIS WILL LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF            
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT GRIDS                
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING. THIS SEEMS ON                
TRACK AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY                
QUIET WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BUT BY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH SHOULD              
FIRE UP AGAIN BUT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE                
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NORTH OF               
THE INTERSTATE WHERE MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE            
TROUGH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE                   
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA TO THE NORTH.                                                              
STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG HAVE BEEN GENERALLY NOT BEEN LOWER THAN 3               
MILES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD START LIFTING OUT                
AFTER 15Z.                                                                      
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 30 TODAY/MONDAY AND THEN              
DROP OFF TO THE LOWER 20S. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER              
TO MID 90S TODAY/MONDAY AND THEN COOLING TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.            
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR 60 WEST TO 70 IN THE EAST COOLING TO            
THE MID 60S EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO MONITOR AND MAKE ANY LAST               
MINUTE CHANGES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS...AND A FEW ISOLATED LIFR                           
CONDITIONS...HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI STATE                           
REGION...AFFECTING KMCK...KGLD...AND ALL TWEB ROUTES EXCEPT THE FAR             
WESTERN SECTION OF TWEB ROUTE 275...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN VFR                    
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS                  
SHOULD IMPROVE REGION WIDE BY 15Z.                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/FS/BLM                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN            
STALL TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE                 
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED         
LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING AFTRN/EVE AHEAD. FRNT STILL N OF                
FA LATE THIS AM...BUT PROGGED TO SAG S AS S/W MOVES E ALONG IT.                 
HOWEVER...LTL IF ANY CLOUD COVER ACROSS FA TO PREVENT HTNG THIS AM.             
CLDS NOW APPRCHG FROM W & SW AND XPCT SC/CU TO DVLP ACROSS FA NXT               
FEW HRS SO PT SUNNY WILL SUFFICE. 10AM TMPS IN L-M 80S...SO XPCT                
ABOUT ANTHR 10 DEGREES FOR MAX TMPS. THIS COMBINED WITH DP TMPS                 
70-75 YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES GNRLY BTWN 100-105...JUST BLO HEAT               
ADVSRY CRITERIA. RUC/WRF KEEP IT DRY THRU 18Z THEN CONVECTION                   
DVLPS AHEAD/ALONG BNDRY AND MOVES SE. SRN HALF OF FA REMAIN IN SLGHT            
RISK AREA...WITH MAIN THREAT FOR STRNG/GUSTY WNDS/HAIL/HVY RAINFALL.            
THUS...BEEFED UP WORDING IN ZFP THNKG HIGHEST POPS BTWN 21-03Z.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER EASTERN HALF OF VA ANC NC...WITH WEAK                
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING                  
ACROSS SCENTRL VA AND NC AND LINE OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN                    
PIEDMONT SETTING STAGE FOR SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE REGION LATER IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS LGT AND VRBL.                    
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT SO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY                
MAY PROLONG INTO LATE HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION PSBL MON FOR SE               
VA AND NC WITH FRONT IN VCNTY. WEAK HIGH BLDG IN FOR TUE AND WED                
AS BNDY MOVES SOUTH OR DISSIPATES. NE-E FLOW MAY BRING IFR/MVFR                 
CIGS FOR COASTAL AREAS EARLY HOURS MON AND TUE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE U.S. TUES THROUGH THURS. A LITTLE                 
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FCSTD FOR THE END OF THE              
WEEK. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BLEW THE FRONT THROUGH...LEAVING                
COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...LATE RUNS HAVE             
SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A BIT (NOT REALLY ANY SURPRISE THERE) AND HINT            
OF IT POSSIBLY STALLING SOUTH OF US WHICH COULD MEAN LINGERING POPS             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD POSSIBILITY OF TEMPS COOLING BACK DOWN                
THOUGH AT LEAST TO AROUND CLIMO BY FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TDY...THEN MVFR OR ISLTD               
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN THRU ERLY MON MORNG...DUE TO SCTD            
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WITH FRNTL BNDRY. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD             
INTO REGION FOR LATE MONDAY THRU WED. ANOTHER FRNT APPROACHING FM               
THE NW MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SCTD PCPN ON THU.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HEADLINES FOR TDY THRU MON NGT. SSW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS TDY WILL              
BECOME NE OR E FOR MON AND MON NGT...AS FRNTL BNDRY DROPS THRU                  
REGION. GENERALLY NE WNDS 15 KT OR LESS FOR TUE AND WED...THEN                  
BRIEFLY SSE LATE WED/WED NGT...BEFORE BECMG NNE AGAIN THU.                      
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JMM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MPR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JMM                                                                
LONG TERM...JMM                                                                 
AVIATION...JEF                                                                  
MARINE...TMG                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
749 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT)...                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN            
CONUS AND BORDER WITH CANADA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES                   
HELPING TO SPARK AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS               
FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE                  
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE MAIN            
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.              
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE             
MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT               
QUICKER TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY AND               
WELL SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO PROGRESSIVE NOR IS            
THE 00Z UKMET NOR ARE THE LOCAL HEMISPHERIC AND NORTH AMERICAN                  
WRF-ARW RUNS. AT THIS POINT AM INCLINED TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE             
PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWED                   
PROGRESSION OF THINGS...ALTHOUGH IN THE END THIS ONLY RESULTED IN               
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                            
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF UPSTREAM             
CONVECTION...ONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER                
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THE SECOND AREA              
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND                   
CORRESPONDS REASONABLY WELL WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED 850-500MB                  
NEGATIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND CORRESPONDING 850MB BASED CAPE.               
THIS AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EARLIER BUT NOTHING                 
DEVELOPED UNTIL IT MOVED INTO A LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS IT                   
ASCENDED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SATURATED. RUC ANALYSES AND                   
PROFILER DATA SHOW A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET IN THAT AREA...ORIENTED              
AT A DECENT ANGLE TO THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB            
FRONTOGENESIS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN                     
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED               
AND THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE                      
NORTHEAST. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE            
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL               
JET CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CUT OFF DUE TO              
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
STILL PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL MAKE IT              
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. THE               
SOUTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME SINCE                     
INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT GOING FOR            
A WHILE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT              
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION              
SHOULD CONTINUE. THE GFS QPF FIELDS ACTUALLY DID A REASONABLE JOB OF            
IDENTIFYING THIS PCPN IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM. THE RUC13 ALSO                    
HIGHLIGHTED PCPN IN THIS AREA AS DID THE LOCAL NORTH AMERICAN                   
WRF-ARW RUN. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE                   
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE              
CWFA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM THE UPSTREAM                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THAT POINT AND THE WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL               
LOW LEVEL JET AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY...PER THE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES...ALSO              
WEAKENS SOME...ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY             
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IF IT COULD CONTINUE TO BE FORCED. WILL BRING             
CHANCE FOR TSRA SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER                
THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION...BUT WILL OTHERWISE                
SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA.             
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE MORNING UNFOLDS                 
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED             
FARTHER EAST.                                                                   
ONCE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLAYS ITSELF OUT...WE WILL                 
LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TONIGHT               
BEFORE WE SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PCPN. IT ONCE AGAIN                  
APPEARS THAT THE BEST MARRIAGE OF FORCING...MOISTURE...AND                      
INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET.              
THE WESTERN CWFA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH LOWER                   
CHANCES TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE            
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA...BUT WILL KEEP JUST               
CHANCE POPS EAST OF THERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS EAST OF A            
MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WITH THE                 
FROPA ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP FOR A BIT TO OUR SOUTH               
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IF IT DOES THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL               
WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG IT AND CLIP THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWFA...SO                    
LINGERED PCPN A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...IT STILL                   
APPEARS TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE REALLY DRYING OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI IS FALLING                 
APART AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS...SHIFTING BETTER FORCING FOR PCPN                 
FARTHER S. A -SHRA STILL MIGHT SURVIVE TO KCMX THROUGH 13Z BEFORE               
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN TO REACH KSAW.                       
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE                  
EVENING HRS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CAPPED...PREVENTING THE                       
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KSAW             
AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY             
WIND DIRECTION WITH AT LEAST 25KT AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN SUGGESTS                
GUSTS TO 25KT ARE LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT             
REQUIRING LLWS TO BE INCLUDED IN FCST AT KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH                    
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL            
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED                  
A PROB GROUP FOR TSRA LATE IN THE NIGHT AT KCMX AS APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THERE.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO                   
GENERALLY AROUND 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER                
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WHICH IS              
TYPICAL FOR MOST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY IN              
THE 25-30KT RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER...THE PRES                    
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WHICH             
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY                    
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL             
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A WEAK              
SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING OVER                   
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25KT               
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER                   
OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS STANNARD ROCK. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR            
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS                   
NATIONAL LAKESHORE (AROUND GRAND MARAIS) AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE                 
TYPICALLY ENHANCED THERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME GALE              
FORCE GUSTS THERE AT TIMES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE E PART OF THE LAKE TUE AFTN. AT              
THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED 20KT AFTER THE            
COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT WED THRU FRI AS               
HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TRH                                                                
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN            
CONUS AND BORDER WITH CANADA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES                   
HELPING TO SPARK AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS               
FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE                  
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE MAIN            
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.              
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE             
MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT               
QUICKER TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY AND               
WELL SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO PROGRESSIVE NOR IS            
THE 00Z UKMET NOR ARE THE LOCAL HEMISPHERIC AND NORTH AMERICAN                  
WRF-ARW RUNS. AT THIS POINT AM INCLINED TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE             
PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWED                   
PROGRESSION OF THINGS...ALTHOUGH IN THE END THIS ONLY RESULTED IN               
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                            
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF UPSTREAM             
CONVECTION...ONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER                
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THE SECOND AREA              
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND                   
CORRESPONDS REASONABLY WELL WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED 850-500MB                  
NEGATIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND CORRESPONDING 850MB BASED CAPE.               
THIS AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EARLIER BUT NOTHING                 
DEVELOPED UNTIL IT MOVED INTO A LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS IT                   
ASCENDED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SATURATED. RUC ANALYSES AND                   
PROFILER DATA SHOW A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET IN THAT AREA...ORIENTED              
AT A DECENT ANGLE TO THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB            
FRONTOGENESIS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN                     
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED               
AND THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE                      
NORTHEAST. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE            
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL               
JET CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CUT OFF DUE TO              
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
STILL PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL MAKE IT              
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. THE               
SOUTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME SINCE                     
INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT GOING FOR            
A WHILE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT              
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION              
SHOULD CONTINUE. THE GFS QPF FIELDS ACTUALLY DID A REASONABLE JOB OF            
IDENTIFYING THIS PCPN IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM. THE RUC13 ALSO                    
HIGHLIGHTED PCPN IN THIS AREA AS DID THE LOCAL NORTH AMERICAN                   
WRF-ARW RUN. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE                   
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE              
CWFA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM THE UPSTREAM                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THAT POINT AND THE WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL               
LOW LEVEL JET AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY...PER THE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES...ALSO              
WEAKENS SOME...ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY             
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IF IT COULD CONTINUE TO BE FORCED. WILL BRING             
CHANCE FOR TSRA SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER                
THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION...BUT WILL OTHERWISE                
SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA.             
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE MORNING UNFOLDS                 
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED             
FARTHER EAST.                                                                   
ONCE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLAYS ITSELF OUT...WE WILL                 
LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TONIGHT               
BEFORE WE SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PCPN. IT ONCE AGAIN                  
APPEARS THAT THE BEST MARRIAGE OF FORCING...MOISTURE...AND                      
INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET.              
THE WESTERN CWFA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH LOWER                   
CHANCES TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE            
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA...BUT WILL KEEP JUST               
CHANCE POPS EAST OF THERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS EAST OF A            
MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WITH THE                 
FROPA ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP FOR A BIT TO OUR SOUTH               
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IF IT DOES THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL               
WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG IT AND CLIP THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWFA...SO                    
LINGERED PCPN A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...IT STILL                   
APPEARS TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE REALLY DRYING OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS 0115Z TAMDAR                    
SOUNDING FROM KSAW SHOWED 34 KT AT 940 FT AGL...AND 39 KT AT 1510 FT            
AGL. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE (0522Z) FROM THE KMQT RADAR SHOWS 35KT             
AT 500FT AGL. EXPECT 35KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER BOTH KSAW AND KCMX             
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AROUND 1000 FT LEVEL PER FCST               
SOUNDINGS. SECOND FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE                      
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS CONTINUES TO TRACK E...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN            
AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q              
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE W MAY BE ENOUGH            
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE               
INCLUDED THIS IN LATEST FORECAST FOR KCMX. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION               
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO                   
GENERALLY AROUND 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER                
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WHICH IS              
TYPICAL FOR MOST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY IN              
THE 25-30KT RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER...THE PRES                    
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WHICH             
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY                    
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL             
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A WEAK              
SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING OVER                   
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25KT               
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER                   
OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS STANNARD ROCK. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR            
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS                   
NATIONAL LAKESHORE (AROUND GRAND MARAIS) AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE                 
TYPICALLY ENHANCED THERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME GALE              
FORCE GUSTS THERE AT TIMES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE E PART OF THE LAKE TUE AFTN. AT              
THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED 20KT AFTER THE            
COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT WED THRU FRI AS               
HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TRH                                                                
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
950 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC BASED CONVECTION INHIBITED EARLIER AS CAP WAS VICTORIOUS. 00Z               
UPPER AIR ANALYSES VERIFIED THIS SHOWING A MID LEVEL WARM POCKET                
OF 14C AT H7 DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM SD                
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS A BIT...WHICH               
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE SEEING DEVELOPING                    
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL MN. EXPECT THE MOST                   
ORGANIZED AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO BE IN CENTRAL                
MN AND WRN WI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES NEAR WHAT THEY WERE                  
LAST NIGHT WITH A BIT MORE VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET...SO HAIL A                   
POSSIBILITY. STORM MODE THUS FAR ON 88D AND 00Z RUC PARAMETERS                  
WOULD INDICATE WIND THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO ONLY              
THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED TO THE MEAN              
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CAN SEE SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATER               
TONIGHT AND INTO TUES AND EVEN TUES NIGHT /AS MENTIONED BELOW/.                 
THE 00Z NAM...WHICH IS CONSISTENT...BRINGS THE REMNANT ALOFT ENERGY             
OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE DEAN AT ONE TIME NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT                
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE ON TUES. OUTPUT QPF FROM THIS AND THE              
21Z SREF WOULD FAVOR SRN AND SE MN TO SEE POSSIBLY A WIDESPREAD                 
ONE INCH PLUS RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.                                 
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING                
ACROSS MN CWA. MPX 18Z SOUNDING SHOWING STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER                
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA. ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG PERIPHERY OF              
CAPPING INVERSION...FAR NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA. THIS WILL                  
RIDE EAST DURING THE EVENING. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CAP/CINH WILL               
ERODE ALONG/VCNTY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...AFFECTING             
MAINLY CENTRAL MN. QUESTION WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ROOTED                 
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO FIRE...TORNADO                  
POTENTIAL IS THERE AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...ALONG          
WITH HEAVY RAIN...WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE                 
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY              
EVOLVE INTO MCS LATER TONIGHT AND AFFECT WESTERN WI.                            
FRONT SLOW TO SAG OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY              
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THUNDER THREAT DECREASES RAPIDLY                   
BEHIND FRONT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED CAP INDICATED BEHIND                 
FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS/RAIN AROUND TUESDAY...WILL                
GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE VALUES. HYDRO WILL HAVE TO BE              
MONITORED TONIGHT INTO WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST AS 1HR/3HR FFG               
IS QUITE LOW.                                                                   
SOME INDICATION ON SREF THAT FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTH               
INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE                 
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WED. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR              
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                         
LONGER TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOME INDICATION OF SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS              
NORTHER US/SOUTHERN CANADA LATER SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD WHICH WOULD BRING         
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL MN DURING THIS PERIOD.              
WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF            
AREA THEN.  00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT SLOWER ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT WITH THE             
AND 06Z GFS BRINGING INTO CENTRAL MN BY MONDAY.  00Z GFS ENSEMBLE               
MEAN WAS FASTER WITH FRONT AND ATTENDANT POPS.  WARMING ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES               
THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/                                                          
CAPPED CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY...AND VERY               
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN ANY APPRECIABLE         
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK ACROSS MOST TAF SITES PRIOR TO 06Z. GFS ISENTROPIC          
ANAL EVEN SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED PRIOR TO 12Z.             
DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INCLUDE CHANCE TSRA ACROSS MOST             
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z. BIGGEST NIGHTLY WEATHER PROBLEM WILL               
BE NON-CONVECTIVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ITS TIME MARCHING SE...AND SWEEP ACROSS MUCH                 
OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY 20Z. LOOKS LIKE A POST FRONTAL MID                 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A SECOND CHANCE OF CONVECTION         
DURING THE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 28/00Z          
TIME FRAME BEHIND SECONDARY TROF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL              
FILL IN BEHIND TROF...PROVIDING TOP NOTCH FLYING CONDITIONS FROM                
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EVENING HOURS ON WED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/AJZ/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
750 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO GET FAIRLY BUSY HERE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA               
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                    
SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR ENTERING SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT                   
PRESENT IS FUELING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST                            
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...RAPIDLY MOVING INTO WESTERN                       
WISCONSIN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS QUITE PREVALENT ACROSS THE                   
AREA...AS EVIDENCED ON 00Z AREA AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS...BUT                  
SHEAR IS QUITE LACKING DUE TO THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS.              
THIS DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS SO              
GREAT THAT IT IS MAKING UP FOR THE LACK OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR TO               
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED                 
TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS              
FORECAST HAD THIS SCENARIO PEGGED QUITE WELL SO FEW CHANGES WERE                
MADE.                                                                           
SCENARIO FOR LATER TODAY DOES NOT LOOK DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT THAN              
IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. INTENSE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION...ASSOCIATED                
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL                         
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL               
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING                
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION                   
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM SEEING                          
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EVEN INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT               
HOURS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN                       
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD FAVOR A                 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE                        
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.                                                         
UNLIKE SUNDAY EVENING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST                   
MINNESOTA...THE TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT LOOK SUBSTANTIAL FOR                    
SEVERAL REASONS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO              
BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE...AS OPPOSED TO A DEEPENING ONE.                        
ALSO...LOW LEVEL INHIBITION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...A                    
SITUATION THAT SHOULD NOT IMPROVE WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE                     
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID                  
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE SITUATION REMINDS ME OF 2 WEEKS                        
AGO...WHEN WIDESPREAD WINDS/LARGE HAIL/URBAN FLOODING WERE A                    
PROBLEM...BUT NOT TORNADOES.                                                    
SPEAKING OF FLOODING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY HAVE                
TO DEAL WITH THAT AGAIN...AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY                 
NEAR THE IOWA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY EVEN HAVE AN                 
EXTRA INFUSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...AS THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE               
DEAN /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING THE WEST COAST NEAR SAN DIEGO/               
ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING RAINS                
DOES LOOK TO BE SOUTH...IN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT IT IS NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90                       
CORRIDOR. THIS IS SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.                                      
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS A FAIRLY                  
POTENT SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT DEPARTS.                
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/                                                          
CONCERN WITH THE TAFS ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE                 
DURATION OF THE TAF. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MN AND              
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR                                
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO               
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO CNTRL MN TONIGHT.  ON GOING CONVECTION OVR                  
WISCONSIN AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND                  
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED             
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION ALOFT...RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS AND CLOUDS             
OVR CNTRL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS 2-4            
THOUSAND FEET AGL EARLIER. CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO               
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THROUGH LATE             
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...CONDS               
RETROGRADING IN PRECIP AND TSRA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS WITH HOW WARM TO GO WITH THE                 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND INITIAL                 
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.                               
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THIS             
TIME PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE              
SOUTHERN HALF THE COUNTRY AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.            
INITIALLY THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA STUCK IN THE MIDDLE...WITH               
MAIN CONVECTION ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST            
REGION. ONE MINOR FLY IN THAT SCENARIO WOULD BE IF ANY CONVECTION               
CAN KICK OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS            
THE REGION WITH 310K WRF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING SOME BETTER ISENTROPIC            
LIFT ACROSS THAT REGION. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION EXTREME                
NORTHERN MISSOURI COULD GET CLIPPED BY THIS ACTIVITY...BUT                      
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD POPS AT THIS POINT.                                   
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS MISSOURI ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS              
SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE               
TROUGH SETS UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.                 
TEMPERATURES THAT WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER KANSAS TODAY             
SHOULD BE PULLED FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FLOW...ALLOWING MOST IF NOT             
ALL THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 90S ON MONDAY.                          
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AREAS MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY ANY             
CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE               
LIGHTER AS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN MISSOURI.                       
STILL...WITH AREA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT TO SEE             
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.                   
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                 
NIGHT...AND A SMALL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE              
NORTHERN STREAM...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST                 
NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA                   
TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO                    
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS IT AWAITS A PUSH FROM STRONGER WAVE DROPPING            
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL FOCUS THE BETTER            
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
PC                                                                              
MEDIUM RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                      
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                  
REGARD TO THE OVERALL HEMISPHERIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER SUBTLE             
DIFFERENCES ON THE SUBSYNOPTIC SCALE...PARTICULARLY IN THE                      
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS RUN...LEAD TO THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS                  
FORECAST CYCLE. SFC FRONT STILL APPEAR ON TAP TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS RUN DELAYS THE              
PROGRESSION OF THE LAGGING H8 FRONT...AS WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT             
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO BE MORE                   
DAMPENED AND SHEARED THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...LOW                 
LEVEL PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT AS               
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE              
SFC IS NOT SCOURED SOUTH AS FAST AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD DEPICTED. IN              
ADDITION...OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS KEEPS THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE               
CENTERED CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF                  
ENERGY PROGRESSING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HELPING FORCE VERY WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                                
WILL DISCOUNT THIS LATEST GFS RUN FOR THE TIME BEING AS GFS                     
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER PRESSURE RISES DEVELOPING OVER              
THE WRN GREAT LAKES...FORCING A DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH THE FORECAST              
AREA. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE AGREEMENT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...IN ADDITION             
TO CONCEPTUAL MODELS WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR A DRYING OF THE                      
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH DEEPENING NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.                          
ALSO...SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS ISENTROPIC FIELDS             
INDICATES ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH                  
INCREASING DOWNGLIDE IN THE DRYING LAYER TO THE NORTH.                          
THEREFORE...HAVE SERIOUS RESERVATIONS OVER THE OPERATION GFS                    
PRECIPITATION FIELD FORECASTS BEYOND WED NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A              
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THURS AND INTO THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE                  
OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTION OF LIGHT PRECIP ECHOES IN AND AROUND THE              
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
GIVEN THE ABOVE THINKING...HAVE FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW MEX             
GUIDANCE NUMBERS...PARTICULARLY FOR LOW TEMPS WHERE DRIER AND                   
CLEARER OVERNIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD YIELD CONDITIONS                
VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF AUGUST/BEGINNING OF            
SEPTEMBER. IF FOR SOME REASON THE OPERATIONAL GFS DID COME TO                   
FRUITION...OVERALL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN                            
SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL SPREADS WOULD NEED TO BE REDUCED.                    
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                                                   
FOR 18Z TAFS...RUC MODEL SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH                  
CURRENT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IN EASTERN KANSAS. ALSO RUC              
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE ON              
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY WHY THE SHOWERS HAVE                   
REDEVELOPED IN THE ATCHISON COUNTY KANSAS AREA LATE THIS MORNING.               
EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL STAY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP              
MOISTURE. GIVEN TRACK OF CURRENT SHOWERS...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KMCI            
AND SOUTH OF KSTJ. WILL HANDLE WITH VC WORDING FOR NOW AND WATCH FOR            
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.                                                     
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
...AVIATION UPDATE...                                                           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                                             
UPDATED FOR FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...                           
RADAR INDICATED THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD                  
TOGETHER AS THEY ENTER CWA FROM WEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE             
ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A                
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY            
OF LIGHTNING...RAIN...OR ANY WIND WITH THESE STORMS. WILL UPDATE                
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW STORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSS            
THE BORDER INTO MISSOURI.                                                       
ADOLPHSON                                                                       
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/310 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURES...                                             
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMPS AS              
LOW LEVEL H8 SOUTHERLY JET UPSTREAM HELPS ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER H8             
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MIX DOWN TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DECENT              
LAPSE RATES ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GFS              
TEMPS FOR TODAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS CUMULUS                
DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN RH FIELDS AND CU RULE FROM NAM.  WINDS WILL              
BE OF BREEZY CATEGORY THANKS TO INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.              
THE GFS AND RUC TRY TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING             
BUT NOTHING TO SUPPORT IT IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CURRENT RADAR HAS              
NO ECHOES EITHER SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES EAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASINGLY SLOWED THE PROGRESS WHICH IS               
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND TIME IT WILL               
TAKE FOR GREAT LAKES TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND DECREASE THE HEIGHT FIELD             
OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS.                                                       
MEANWHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST.              
H8 TEMPERATURES RISE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS FRONT SINKS IN FROM THE                 
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE 80S BY THEN.                    
ADOLPHSON                                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...RUC MODEL SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH                  
CURRENT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IN EASTERN KANSAS. ALSO RUC              
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE ON              
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY WHY THE SHOWERS HAVE                   
REDEVELOPED IN THE ATCHISON COUNTY KANSAS AREA LATE THIS MORNING.               
EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL STAY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP              
MOISTURE. GIVEN TRACK OF CURRENT SHOWERS...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KMCI            
AND SOUTH OF KSTJ. WILL HANDLE WITH VC WORDING FOR NOW AND WATCH FOR            
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.                                                     
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
..AVIATION UPDATE..                                                             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                                             
..UPDATED FOR FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...                         
RADAR INDICATED THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD                  
TOGETHER AS THEY ENTER CWA FROM WEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE             
ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A                
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY            
OF LIGHTNING...RAIN...OR ANY WIND WITH THESE STORMS. WILL UPDATE                
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW STORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSS            
THE BORDER INTO MISSOURI. ADOLPHSON                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
/310 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURES...                                             
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMPS AS              
LOW LEVEL H8 SOUTHERLY JET UPSTREAM HELPS ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGER H8              
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MIX DOWN TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DECENT              
LAPSE RATES ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GFS              
TEMPS FOR TODAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS CUMULUS                
DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN RH FIELDS AND CU RULE FROM NAM.  WINDS WILL              
BE OF BREEZY CATEGORY THANKS TO INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.              
THE GFS AND RUC TRY TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING             
BUT NOTHING TO SUPPORT IT IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CURRENT RADAR HAS              
NO ECHOES EITHER SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES EAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASINGLY SLOWED THE PROGRESS WHICH IS               
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND TIME IT WILL               
TAKE FOR GREAT LAKES TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND DECREASE THE HEIGHT FIELD             
OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS.                                                       
MEANWHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST.              
H8 TEMPERATURES RISE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS FRONT SINKS IN FROM THE                 
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE 80S BY THEN.                    
ADOLPHSON                                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 12Z TAFS...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS                    
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY            
SEE BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO             
INHIBITED MUCH OF A NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP AND THEREFORE LOWER VIS          
SEEMS UNLIKELY ATTM. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN             
KANSAS PUSHING EASTWARD MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT              
FEW HOURS AND WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH VCSH MENTION.                        
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
525 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...UPDATED FOR FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...                        
RADAR INDICATED THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD                  
TOGETHER AS THEY ENTER CWA FROM WEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE             
ISOLATED STORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A                
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY            
OF LIGHTNING...RAIN...OR ANY WIND WITH THESE STORMS. WILL UPDATE                
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW STORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSS            
THE BORDER INTO MISSOURI. ADOLPHSON                                             
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                            
/310 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURES...                                             
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMPS AS              
LOW LEVEL H8 SOUTHERLY JET UPSTREAM HELPS ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGER H8              
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MIX DOWN TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DECENT              
LAPSE RATES ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GFS              
TEMPS FOR TODAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS CUMULUS                
DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN RH FIELDS AND CU RULE FROM NAM.  WINDS WILL              
BE OF BREEZY CATEGORY THANKS TO INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.              
THE GFS AND RUC TRY TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING             
BUT NOTHING TO SUPPORT IT IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CURRENT RADAR HAS              
NO ECHOES EITHER SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES EAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASINGLY SLOWED THE PROGRESS WHICH IS               
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND TIME IT WILL               
TAKE FOR GREAT LAKES TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND DECREASE THE HEIGHT FIELD             
OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS.                                                       
MEANWHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST.              
H8 TEMPERATURES RISE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS FRONT SINKS IN FROM THE                 
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE 80S BY THEN.                    
ADOLPHSON                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 06Z TAFS...BROAD AREA OF AC NEAR 10-12KFT ACROSS WESTERN                    
MO/EASTERN KS AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY            
QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC WIND EXPECTED. MAY SEE             
LOWER VIS AT KSJT TOWARD EARLY MORNING....WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT               
KMKC AND KMCI...KEPT UNOBSTRUCTED VIS.                                          
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
310 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURES...                                             
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMPS AS              
LOW LEVEL H8 SOUTHERLY JET UPSTREAM HELPS ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGER H8              
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MIX DOWN TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DECENT              
LAPSE RATES ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GFS              
TEMPS FOR TODAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS CUMULUS                
DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN RH FIELDS AND CU RULE FROM NAM.  WINDS WILL              
BE OF BREEZY CATEGORY THANKS TO INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.              
THE GFS AND RUC TRY TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING             
BUT NOTHING TO SUPPORT IT IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CURRENT RADAR HAS              
NO ECHOES EITHER SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES EAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASINGLY SLOWED THE PROGRESS WHICH IS               
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND TIME IT WILL               
TAKE FOR GREAT LAKES TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND DECREASE THE HEIGHT FIELD             
OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS.                                                       
MEANWHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST.              
H8 TEMPERATURES RISE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS FRONT SINKS IN FROM THE                 
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE 80S BY THEN.                    
ADOLPHSON                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 06Z TAFS...BROAD AREA OF AC NEAR 10-12KFT ACROSS WESTERN                    
MO/EASTERN KS AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY            
QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC WIND EXPECTED. MAY SEE             
LOWER VIS AT KSJT TOWARD EARLY MORNING....WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT               
KMKC AND KMCI...KEPT UNOBSTRUCTED VIS.                                          
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
914 PM MDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...              
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LATEST                 
NAM AND RUC STILL GENERATE INCREASING AND RATHER HIGH MEAN RH AS                
IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH QPF. A NEW COLD FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY ALSO DEVELOPING IS CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WEST. MODELS                 
DON`T HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TROUGH AS MOST PRECIP THIS EVE               
HAS BEEN IN OUR N. MAIN UPDATE IS TO EXPAND AREA OF HIGHER POPS                 
FARTHER N. AIRMASS NOT QUITE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY                
OF TSTORMS...BUT EXPECT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO                     
OVERNIGHT AS SEEN IN PAST HOUR. SIMONSEN                                        
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S                    
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS AIDED IN              
KEEPING TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY.                              
ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA                   
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS               
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF               
ONE UPPER IMPULSE LOCATED NEAR HAVRE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A                
POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED POP EVENT OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF               
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN                  
850MB BOUNDARY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER                  
SPEED MAX/S RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL                     
JET...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. CANNOT              
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY ON GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE.                    
THE UPPER TROUGH/S BASE BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON              
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH                
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE               
FREE TO DROP FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING A                
REINFORCING COOL SHOT THROUGH THE DAY AND AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL                
ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEAST WHERE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LAST. HIGH                  
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS                  
AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. UPPER RIDGING UNFOLDS ALONG         
THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WHILE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS SETTING UP              
ACROSS THE CWA. LACK OF CLOUDS SHOULD EASILY ALLOW WEDNESDAY/S                  
HIGHS TO JUMP BACK INTO NORMAL TERRITORY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM              
UP LATER IN THE WEEK. MCZ                                                       
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                  
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. THE MODELS ARE IN                   
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY                
NEXT. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FRANSEN                                     
PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...WILL PRETTY MUCH HOLD THE CURRENT                
COURSE WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A                
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG UPPER RIDGE STILL                
SLATED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH RATHER WARM                 
LOW LEVEL AIR. THUS AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK WE GET A STARK               
REMINDER THAT IT IS STILL AUGUST WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER              
80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN BEGINS TO MOVE OFF                
TO THE EAST AS A TROF CARVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS                 
FOR SATURDAY IT APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST              
TO SOUTHWEST. A MONTH OR TWO EARLIER AND THIS WOULD BE VERY                     
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. BUT IN LATE AUGUST SOUTHWEST FLOW                  
ALOFT BEGINS TO LOSE ITS MYSTIQUE. WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRY                 
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...WILL KEEP THE                 
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO                  
MOVE THRU SUNDAY WITH UPPER FLOW RETURNING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST IN              
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE                    
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL BE              
DRY WITH DISTINCT LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE UPPER                   
SUPPORT FOR THE RATHER MINUSCULE FRONTAL LIFT BEING INDICATED.                  
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT                  
DOES APPEAR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY               
THOUGHT. SOME WEAK INDUCED UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FOR MONDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES                   
GENERALLY ABOVE 7KT FT AGL. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MVFR CEILINGS              
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS. A BRIEF SHOWER              
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KGGW AND KOLF...WITH A BETTER CHANCE                
OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING AT KGDV. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE                 
LIGHT SIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM                 
THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE               
TAFS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. CB                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
245 PM MDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...                                          
NOT MUCH GOING ON AROUND THE FORECAST AREA NOW AS WE AWAIT                      
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.              
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN BC/ALBERTA...AND AS IT               
SWINGS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SURGE INTO OUR                 
AREA FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER                 
ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THIS IS THE AIRMASS WE WILL               
DEAL WITH TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL IMPULSE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY ALONG THE BC/WA COAST. MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THIS                    
FEATURE AT ALL.                                                                 
FRONTOGENESIS SET TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN                   
PARTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE NORTH.                 
RUC 700MB WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK ACROSS OUR WEST IN                    
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE. GIVEN UPSTREAM SECONDARY WAVE                 
NOT SHOWN BY MODELS...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS                 
MAY SAG FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE...AND THIS WILL NEED TO              
BE WATCHED. AT THE VERY LEAST THE 18Z WRF COMING IN HAS TRENDED                 
WETTER AND COOLER FOR TOMORROW. WITH CONSIDERATIONS TO THIS AND                 
EXPECTED COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE STAYED              
THE COURSE WITH HIGH AND ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA                    
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF                  
BILLINGS STILL LOOKS GOOD WHERE STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD BE. HAVE               
KEPT ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPSLOPE                
COMPONENT WHICH IS SHAPING UP TO BE REASONABLY DEEP. GFS/NAM                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 3-5KFT DEEP AND                
DECREASED MTN TOP DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM NYE TO RED LODGE AND SHR                  
LATE TONIGHT THRU MUCH OF TUE. SO GENERALLY SHALLOW UPSLOPE LIGHT               
SHOWERS OR EVEN SPRINKLES SEEM TO BE A REASONABLE BET IN THIS                   
AREA...WHEREAS THE HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD SET UP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER              
TERRAIN IN OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY                
EVENING...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG THE                      
FOOTHILLS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH               
QUICK ONSET OF RIDGING...SOUNDINGS LOOK REASONABLE SHOWING A                    
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COULD HAVE                 
FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES WED MORNING.                    
TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MID JUNE...               
THE LAST TIME BILLINGS HAS HAD A HIGH COOLER THAN 70F. MOS VALUES               
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SEEM MUCH TOO HIGH UPON                   
COMPARISON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT                
WE WILL BE UNDER A THINK CLOUD COVER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.                
WITH ADDED THREAT OF PCPN...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE                 
AND HAVE IN FACT LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS A BIT. HAVE GIVEN BILLINGS              
A 67F BUT IF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP THEN WE MAY NOT                 
GET MUCH ABOVE 60F. GFS/NAM EACH SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10-12C                 
TUE AFTN.                                                                       
DRYING AND MUCH WARMER FOR WED AS RIDGE RAPIDLY REBUILDS FROM THE               
WEST. EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THOUGH...AND WITH WHAT                 
SHOULD BE A COOL START TO THE DAY HAVE STAYED A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE              
WED AS WELL. NONETHELESS SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. MUCH               
WARMER NIGHT WITH A POORER HUMIDITY RECOVERY WED NIGHT. HAVE                    
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF TSTMS WED AFTN/EVNG AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE                 
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST. ANY MONSOONAL                   
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.                                     
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF                     
THE EXTENDED AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                         
THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER FORECAST AREA                     
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONSISTENT MODELS COMING IN WARMER                      
DESPITE CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IN EXTENDED...THEREFORE WILL NUDGE UP                  
TEMPS CLOSER TOWARD A BLEND OF FAVORED GUIDANCE. RIDGE IS                       
FLATTENED FOR LATTER PART OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH                 
SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.                                  
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN ZONES EARLY IN                        
EXTENDED. GENERALLY KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FORECAST AREA FURTHER                   
OUT AS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SWAY FROM NORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR                   
NOW...BUT WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY                   
NIGHT FOR INCREASING POPS. BT                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF                    
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH                   
LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MVFR CONDITIONS                   
WITH OVERCAST DECKS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM BILLINGS EAST               
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST                     
MONTANA TO BE OVERCAST WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT               
RAIN. BT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 052/067 048/083 059/094 060/094 061/093 057/087 054/085                     
    53/R    10/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
LVM 045/066 043/086 051/092 053/093 053/087 049/086 046/083                     
    22/R    10/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
HDN 054/069 048/086 055/096 058/099 059/098 057/093 053/091                     
    55/R    10/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
MLS 053/066 047/083 059/093 060/096 062/095 060/087 056/087                     
    66/R    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
4BQ 054/069 049/079 057/092 059/097 060/098 058/090 055/089                     
    56/R    20/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
BHK 052/062 049/079 056/091 059/094 060/093 058/082 053/085                     
    66/R    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
SHR 051/070 048/084 055/091 055/094 057/091 055/089 051/086                     
    33/R    20/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
908 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE FAR WEST AT THIS TIME. COOL FRONT                    
THROUGH ONL LBF AND AKO AT 02Z WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN EAST OF THE                 
PANHANDLE TO INCREASE BEYOND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE                
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS H5               
WAVE PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAINLY               
AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN ROUTES...TWB098 AND TWB264 OVER THE NEXT 18         
HRS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FCST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CIRRUS SHIELD                
WHICH IS PARKED OVER SWRN SD THIS AFTN. YESTERDAYS NAM12 WAS FCSTING            
BOTH FEATURES TO BE OVER SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THE FCST IS VERY                   
UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THE POTENT H5 WAVE OVER SERN UT/NERN              
AZ. THIS COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF "DEAN". NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO            
BE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL              
AFFECT THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUES AM.                    
MODEL BLENDED SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY SO HAVE OPTED FOR 30 TO 50             
POP LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE MODEL             
BLEND PLUS 20 PERCENT.                                                          
THE BASIC PLAY ON MODEL PERFORMANCE PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE WOULD             
BE TO BRING THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SCATTERED                 
UPSLOPE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                         
THE SWODY1 IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE               
THIS AFTN AND SFC WINDS WILL HAVE TO BACK AROUND THIS EVENING. THE              
ONLY HOPE IS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS POSSIBLE.           
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AND HAIL            
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENT H5 WAVE EJECTING OUT OF COLO...A 45-50             
KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMING AND EXCELLENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE           
THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS UNCERTAIN.               
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VAST AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL            
DRIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ERN U.S. ALL INDICATIONS ARE                
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER KS AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE RETURN             
WILL OCCUR IN NEB. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS                
LATE WEEK PRODUCING WAA BUT DRY WX. SO THE EXTENDED FCST IS FOR DRY             
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                                            
TEMPS DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 ARE MOSTLY NAM12 2M TEMPS...THEREAFTER HPC               
LOOKED REASONABLE EXCEPT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN                  
APPLIED TO OFFSET THE WARM BIAS THIS SUMMER.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COLD FRONT MEANDERS                
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTS              
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER DAKOTAS AND                   
WYOMING MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE                  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION                
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF                
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE             
REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC            
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH               
INTO KS EARLY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.                      
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC/TK/MP                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
305 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CIRRUS SHIELD                
WHICH IS PARKED OVER SWRN SD THIS AFTN. YESTERDAYS NAM12 WAS FCSTING            
BOTH FEATURES TO BE OVER SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THE FCST IS VERY                   
UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THE POTENT H5 WAVE OVER SERN UT/NERN              
AZ. THIS COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF "DEAN". NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO            
BE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL              
AFFECT THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUES AM.                    
MODEL BLENDED SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY SO HAVE OPTED FOR 30 TO 50             
POP LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE MODEL             
BLEND PLUS 20 PERCENT.                                                          
THE BASIC PLAY ON MODEL PERFORMANCE PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE WOULD             
BE TO BRING THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SCATTERED                 
UPSLOPE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                         
THE SWODY1 IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE               
THIS AFTN AND SFC WINDS WILL HAVE TO BACK AROUND THIS EVENING. THE              
ONLY HOPE IS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS POSSIBLE.           
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AND HAIL            
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENT H5 WAVE EJECTING OUT OF COLO...A 45-50             
KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMING AND EXCELLENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE           
THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS UNCERTAIN.               
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VAST AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL            
DRIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ERN U.S. ALL INDICATIONS ARE                
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER KS AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE RETURN             
WILL OCCUR IN NEB. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS                
LATE WEEK PRODUCING WAA BUT DRY WX. SO THE EXTENDED FCST IS FOR DRY             
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                                            
TEMPS DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 ARE MOSTLY NAM12 2M TEMPS...THEREAFTER HPC               
LOOKED REASONABLE EXCEPT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN                  
APPLIED TO OFFSET THE WARM BIAS THIS SUMMER.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COLD FRONT MEANDERS                
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTS              
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER DAKOTAS AND                   
WYOMING MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE                  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION                
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF                
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE             
REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC            
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH               
INTO KS EARLY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC                                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
952 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WILL KEEP THE                  
THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE POCONOS AND WYOMING VALLEY, THROUGH                
MIDDAY.                                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE                      
TEMPERATURES, AND DRY, PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE FAIR WEATHER                    
PATTERN WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CURRENT SATELLITE PICS AND OBS INDICATE STRATUS HOLDING TUFF                    
ACROSS FA ATTM WITH 12Z RAOBS SHOWING MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW.                    
WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS MORNING ALONG                  
WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.                       
WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER WYOMING VALLEY/POCONOS ONLY PRODUCING                   
LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. 06Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MOST                  
RECENT RUC INDICATE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALMOST NIL DUE TO MID                  
LEVEL CAP. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC FOR SHRA UNTIL NOON BUT REMOVED               
TSRA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL                    
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FA TO FINALLY BREAK               
OUT AND BECOME COMPLETELY RAIN FREE.                                            
A MUCH COOLER, MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT AS SEASONABLE AIRMASS                 
SETTLES IN AND SKIES CLEAR. LOOK FOR MINS IN THE 48-54F RANGE                   
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE SUNSHINE PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE               
LOWER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY, BUT NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE. FAIR                      
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
AS FOR EXTENDED...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH NEXT CDFNT                    
PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BASICALLY USED 06Z GFS                
FOR FCST AS IT IS JUST SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN ECMWF DUE TO STRENGTH              
OF HIGH BEHIND IT. POPS TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPS              
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
RAIN SHOWERS IN PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO AFFECT AVP                  
TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS                 
ACTIVITY. CIGS AS AVP WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 FT THROUGH MID               
MORNING. A MIX OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS/FOG, AND VFR CONDITIONS                    
PREVAIL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.                                                  
VFR VIS/CIG FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE, THOUGH AN ISOLATED                          
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE AT AVP TODAY.                                     
EXPECT PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.                
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE ELM, ITH, AND BGM. SOME LIGHT                
FOG IN THE AVP AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                 
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT                   
COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION.                     
MORNING FOG AT KELM COULD PRESENT RESTRICTIONS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP/RRM                                                              
NEAR TERM...RRM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...PVB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND              
LINGER ALONG THE BORDER BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.                  
THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER                 
THE COASTAL PLAIN ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DUE                
TO THE FACT THERE IS NO BIG PUSH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL               
VIRGINIA. THUS THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST... AIDING IN KEEPING                     
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO                   
RAISE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THE               
PRESENT TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL SUGGEST A TRANQUIL                
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO             
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DRIER, MORE STABLE, AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS            
WAYS SWD ON N-NE FLOW. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND               
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE                
FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THROUGH THE PERIOD            
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO NON-EXISTENT.                                          
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE A FEW METERS EACH DAY SO THAT WE ARE             
PUSHING 1430M BY THU. MAX TEMPS TUE/WED IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE                 
LOWER 90S WHILE MAX TEMPS THU 90-95 EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD. A S/W                 
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-FRI WILL TEMPORARILY              
AMPLIFY A L/W TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRI. THIS                   
FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NC FRI.                
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FRI/FRI NIGHT.                              
L/W TROUGH BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT SAT THROUGH MON. THIS MAY CAUSE              
FRONT TO STALL/DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA SAT INTO SUN.               
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED CHANCE POP OVER THE             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SAT. BY SUN...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH RIDGING NEAR              
SURFACE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO GO WITH A DRY                 
FORECAST SUN INTO MON.                                                          
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPS                    
POSSIBLY TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER            
HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT. HOWEVER, DO NOT FORESEE A RETURN TO MUCH                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE            
AND POSSIBLE SUPPORT FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K                   
SURFACE HAS PRODUCED PATCHY SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...                   
TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS MENTION FOR THE               
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT RWI... BUT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY               
OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS DRY AIR PUSHES IN SLOWLY FROM            
THE NORTH... THE SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOULD SHOULD WANE TOWARD                    
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... THE WEATHER REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINS               
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND                  
GROUND ARE NOT AS MOIST. NEVERTHELESS... WITH A STAGNANT PATTERN OF             
A WEAK TROUGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER            
AIR STILL HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH... WE SHOULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER              
NIGHT OF DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... AS WE SAW LAST             
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH THE               
IFR CONDITIONS... BUT BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND RUC FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM AIR AT THE SURFACE... TAFS WILL                
CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z-09Z. THESE LOW CEILINGS               
WILL MIX OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AS              
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION THAT                 
FIRES TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH              
OF THE AREA WITH DEPARTING WEAK FRONT. -GIH                                     
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PREDAWN STRATUS             
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1000-850MB LAYER WINDS FROM ENE.                
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT             
OF CONVECTION. -CBL                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH             
AUGUST 27... 26.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT RALEIGH DURHAM... 62.                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR GREENSBORO THROUGH                 
AUGUST 27... 24.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT GREENSBORO... 46.                                                         
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105.                                                             
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 26TH... WAS 84.7F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.6F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT             
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... THERE            
ARE SOME CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS                
THIS WEEK... AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A MAJOR CHANGE IN            
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES               
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE COMING DAYS.                 
THROUGH AUGUST 26... THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND DEPARTURE             
FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.30" BELOW                    
NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE RAINFALL TOTAL              
FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.91 (2.23" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE RAINFALL             
TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED... THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIEST                    
AUGUST`S ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                           
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BSD                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
CLIMATE...STAFF                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
954 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT               
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG            
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE                      
NORTH...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                            
SFC RUC STREAMLINES FROM THE RUC INDICATES SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY ON.  THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL DRIFT OFF THE              
COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE RUC AND THE WRF NOW INDICATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS             
BY TUE MORNING. WITH THE AID OF FORCING FROM ABOVE AND SFC                      
CONVERGENCE...THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE ENGINE OVER THE WATERS SHULD             
EASILY FIRE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE                      
WATER...AND EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A QUICK DROP TO               
ISOLATED OR NULL CHANCES ESPECIALLY WHEN U GET WEST OF THE I-95                 
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT WITH MSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME               
GOOD CANDIDATES FOR AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
THE DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE WESTERN ILM COUNTIES BY THE MODELS                
OVERNIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...AND THERE4 HAVE STAYED WITH            
THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FOR THE FOG/POSSIBLY DENSE VIA FOG             
STABILITY OUTPUT FROM 00Z RAOB SOUNDINGS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON PACKAGE CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. DIFFUSE                 
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN A FOCUS            
FOR CONVECTION. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUR                     
CONSIDERABLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.                        
INHERITED POPS HAD THE TEMPORAL TREND LAID OUT NICELY WITH HIGHEST              
VALUES IN THE MORNING HOURS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST               
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH LOWER VALUES. TWEAKED POPS DOWN              
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
WORTH NOTING IS THE FEATURE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING OFF CAPE FEAR LATE            
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS              
FEEDBACK.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE NICE DAY TO HOPEFULLY DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS              
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO                
UPPER 80S UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL LOOKING FOR A TRANSITION INTO AN EAST COAST UPPER TROF BY THE             
WEEKEND.  SFC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER SLOPPY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODEL             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING.  THIS WILL BE THE            
HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND NO              
MENTION OF PRECIP.                                                              
GFS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA...NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE             
COAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z SAT.   HPC FORECAST IS FASTER AND MORE                    
CONVINCING WITH THE FROPA.  WILL NOT BITE ON THE DRY MEX POPS FOR               
FRIDAY AND KEEP THE CHANCE IN THERE...AND CARRY IT ON INTO SATURDAY.            
DRY FORECAST SUN-MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW CLIMO.  BELIEVE THAT THE             
BUST POTENTIAL LIES IN THE FRONT BEING ABLE TO GET FARTHER SOUTH                
THAN ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD CUT INTO THE SATURDAY PRECIP POTENTIAL            
AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN EVEN COOLER WEEKEND TEMPS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR                      
CONDITIONS FROM FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT/THRU SEVERAL HRS               
AFTER SUNRISE TUE. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE MVFR FROM FOG BUT            
WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AFTER                   
07Z...WITH CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BEING THE               
AIRWAYS TO STAY AWAY FROM. THIS CONVECTION WILL LAST UP TO SEVERAL              
HRS AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. TUE OVERALL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY PERIODIC             
CLOUD DECKS AT MVFR CONDITIONS...AND A LOWER SHOT OF CONVECTION                 
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THAN WHATS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW DAYS.                     
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                             
THE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE             
ILM WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD LIKELY               
BECOMING NE 10 KT. SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE              
IN DIRECTION DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT...BUT WILL              
ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT A PREDOMINATE DIRECTION. A 2 FOOT 10-12 SEC                
PERIOD ESE SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.                    
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                            
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS                   
TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO              
BE 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS VIA 925/850MB PROGS              
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS               
WILL REMAIN BENIGN WITH A 2-3 FT. RANGE.                                        
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH WIND            
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.  WIND DIRECTION WILL            
BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY THE SEABREEZE THU INTO FRI. LATEST GFS DOES             
NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL SAT MORNING...AND              
EVEN AFTER IT DOES THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SURGE BEHIND IT.                      
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK/DCH                                                              
NEAR TERM...DCH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...MAC/DCH                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
221 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING                
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MERGE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE                  
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY            
STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...             
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL                  
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY ARE:                                      
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE                 
COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG AND SE OF THE EXPECTED WEAK COLD                         
FRONT/TROUGH... WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH.                               
COOLER TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE... DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND            
LOW LEVEL NE-E FLOW... RALEIGH-DURHAM HAS HIT AT LEAST 90 DEGREES IN            
ALL BUT 1 OF THE FIRST 26 DAYS OF THE MONTH... TODAY SHOULD BE                  
NUMBER 2. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.                                            
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAD BEEN                
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SURFACE TROUGH/OLD CONVECTIVE                   
OUTFLOWS THAT EXTENDED NE-SE THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF SC/NC...               
DEPICTED BEST BY THE THETA-E ANALYSIS. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY                     
FROM FAY TO GSB AND ILM WILL HAVE TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR THROUGH 400               
AM... AS IT IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.                                  
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AT 200 AM EDT STRETCHED FROM THE NC/VA                    
MOUNTAINS NE INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS WAS DEPICTED NICELY BY THE                  
TIGHT EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE/SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT.              
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S OVER PA AND INTO MD. THERE WERE                      
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT UP UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT               
AROUND THE DCA AREA. THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER                   
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL AREA AND THE              
ACTUAL COLD FRONT (DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 70S OVER                  
MUCH OF OUR REGION).                                                            
SINCE THE UPPER SUPPORT VIA THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON               
THE WANE TODAY... THE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE LOW                 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SINCE                
THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH OR CONVERGENCE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER              
THE COASTAL PLAIN... IT WILL BE THIS REGION THAT WILL HAVE THE                  
HIGHEST POP (60-70 PERCENT). THE 20-30 PERCENT POP OVER THE                     
PIEDMONT APPEARS JUSTIFIED AS THERE WILL STILL BE RESIDUAL RICH                 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL                 
LEAD TO POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT. QPF WILL LEAN TOWARD THE               
00Z/27 GFS THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH BASIN AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER              
THE COASTAL PLAIN... LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CONVECTIVE TOTALS. THE WEAK              
MEAN STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PW`S... (PW`S ARE EXPECTED                
TO REMAIN IN THE 2 INCH RANGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN)... WILL LEAD              
TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QPF TAPERS RAPIDLY TO THE                   
NW... WITH ONLY 0.01 DEPICTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.                     
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS... NE-E FLOW... AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL                 
LIMIT HIGHS TODAY. THE COOLEST MET GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED OVER THE               
PIEDMONT (MID 80S). IF CLOUDS HOLD IN ALL DAY... THAT WILL BE A                 
STRUGGLE. HIGHS IN THE 86-88 RANGE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN              
BEFORE THE CONVECTION COOLS IT OFF.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
THIS APPEARS TO BE A RATHER MURKY PERIOD AS THE MODELS AGREE THAT               
THE OLD WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE                  
COASTAL PLAIN OR COASTAL AREA TUESDAY. IT SHOULD STILL SERVE TO                 
FOCUS SOME CONVECTION AGAIN TUESDAY... OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.               
BACK OVER THE PIEDMONT ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO                   
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS. A LIGHT NE-E FLOW                 
IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW IN SCOURING OUT. IT MAY BE LATE TUESDAY                
OR EVEN WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEFINITIVE DRYING MIXES DOWN TO THE                    
SURFACE. STRATUS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT              
EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN FALL JUST SHORT OF 90                 
MOST AREAS.                                                                     
THE 00Z/27 AUGUST GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE                   
FEEDBACK BETWEEN 06Z THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IN GENERATING HEAVY RAIN               
OVER THE SE... AND WAS GENERALLY DISCARDED FOR THAT TIME FRAME.                 
FOR WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL                 
BRING LESS CLOUDINESS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE GONE FROM THE SE...               
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED PM SHOWER OR                    
STORM. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER               
90S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON                    
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING... INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PM                      
CONVECTION THEN. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
THURSDAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE.                         
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THE EXPECTED               
DEVELOPMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN              
U.S. LATE THIS WEEK COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS...WHILE A               
COOL DOWN IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IS STILL ANTICIPATED                          
SATURDAY... THE MAGNITUDE OF COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS                  
EARLIER THINKING. THIS TRANSLATES TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR               
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY NAM AND GFS MODEL                
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY FIELDS...SHOULD RESULT IN             
AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.  RUC                
925MB MOISTURE FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF HIGH                   
MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVER TIME THIS MORNING.  MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT...WITH ANY SUNSHINE...CU QUICKLY                        
DEVELOPING.  WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY                  
MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH MVFR PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE              
TRIAD AND KRDU BY AFTERNOON.  IT WOULD APPEAR THE LEAST CHANCES FOR             
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KINT WHERE THE RUC BARELY ALLOWS             
FOR HIGH 925MB RH BY 12Z.  IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS            
KFAY TO HAVE CEILINGS MUCH ABOVE HIGH VALUES OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON             
DUE TO HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY.                                                                            
ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND THE GFS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL AND THE                    
POTENTIAL LOCATION FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
OVERNIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST DECENT                     
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.  AS A RESULT...06Z TAFS SHOW                      
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR                  
CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST ONLY SHOWS CB             
AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND DRYING                  
MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST BY THE NAM AND THE GFS TOWARD THE TRIAD...               
AND MID-LEVEL NVA FORECAST AS WELL.  EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.             
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF              
THE REST OF THE WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST                
26... 25.                                                                       
THE TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST 26 AT RALEIGH            
DURHAM... 61.                                                                   
TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR GREENSBORO THROUGH AUGUST 26...              
24.                                                                             
THE TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST 26 AT                    
GREENSBORO... 47.                                                               
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105.                                                             
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 26TH... WAS 84.7F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.6F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT             
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... THERE            
ARE SOME CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS                
THIS WEEK... AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A MAJOR CHANGE IN            
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES               
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS            
IS GREAT NEWS TO A REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED SOME OF THE HOTTEST              
AND DRIEST WEATHER ON RECORD BETWEEN AUGUST 1 AND AUGUST 26.                    
THROUGH AUGUST 26... THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND DEPARTURE             
FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.30" BELOW                    
NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE RAINFALL TOTAL              
FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.91 (2.23" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE RAINFALL             
TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED... THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIEST                    
AUGUST`S ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                           
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PWB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PWB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PWB                                                                
LONG TERM...PWB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
CLIMATE...PWB/DJF                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
854 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH                
CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND                
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REALITY WITH BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS                   
FROM ALBEMARLE EAST TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS              
ADJUSTED AS WELL...OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES. LOW TEMPERATURES                  
TONIGHT 70 TO 74.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                          
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF FORECAST                 
AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY.                   
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FAR                      
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ONCE                      
AGAIN...WINDS ALOFT NOT IMPRESSIVE SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
PULSE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE               
STRONGEST CELLS. DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELD...MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINFALL IN PLACES THAT EXPERIENCE MORE THAN ONE STORM. CLOUD                   
COVERAGE MONDAY WILL HELP TO DETER TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE                 
90S AREA WIDE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 87 TO 91.                                   
TUESDAY...NORTH FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS WILL SLOWLY DRY                  
OUT AIR MASS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS                     
DISTINCT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN THE                   
FORECAST AREA BUT BEST POSSIBILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES.                                                                       
FOR WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION.                  
THIS WILL PLACE A POCKET OF DRIER AIR OVER FORECAST AREA LIMITING               
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK CONFLUENCE OR UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERN                
PIEDMONT MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO LATE WEDNESDAY BUT CHANCE                  
NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.                                              
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL               
WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING 3 TO 4 METERS EACH                   
DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY...AND 90 TO 95           
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND               
FRIDAY WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA              
BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF SYSTEM...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                   
THURSDAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE. MODEL                   
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH                
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS...WHILE A COOL DOWN IN MAXIMUM              
TEMPERATURES STILL ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE                        
MAGNITUDE OF COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS EARLIER THINKING.                
THUS...HAVE RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
FOR THE REGION.                                                                 
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE BEST ON FRIDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT IN              
VICINITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE                
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUGGEST A MENTION OF A POP FOR SATURDAY AND                   
SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF                  
NORTH CAROLINA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED ALL TAF                    
SITES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... HOWEVER THIS THREAT HAS ALL                
BUT ENDED WITH THE WANING HEATING AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS                     
CONVECTION INTO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN. ONLY THE FAY TAF SITE               
IS STILL IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF ISOLATED LINGERING STORMS TO ITS                  
NORTHWEST AND WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS MENTION FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR                
TWO. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO TRACK AS VARIOUS OUTFLOWS HAVE                    
PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES AND PRODUCED                    
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH... MOST RECENTLY AT FAY WHICH JUST SAW OUTFLOW                
PASSAGE THAT SWITCHED WINDS AROUND TO GUSTY NORTHEAST. THESE                    
OUTFLOWS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY LEAVING A PREVAILING WIND PATTERN               
CENTERED AROUND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NC. WINDS               
HAVE GONE AROUND TO EAST AND NORTHEAST AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHILE              
WINDS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHWEST. AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THESE WINDS ARE ALREADY                    
STARTING TO PULL DOWN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR STRATUS... AND BASED ON                
NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT                
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. HAVE TRENDED CEILINGS DOWN TO                 
IFR AFTER 08Z AT THESE SITES BUT HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT FAY                  
BASED ON THE DRIER LOW LEVELS NOTED ON THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND A                  
LESS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VISIBILITIES MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.               
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE STRATUS...                 
BUT RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPOSITE... MORE                    
STRATUS THAN FOG. LAST NIGHT... THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS                
UPSTREAM AND FOG WAS MOSTLY MVFR AT WORST... SO HAVE FAVORED THIS               
SOLUTION... GOING NO WORSE THAN MVFR VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...                   
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS AND LATER                    
FORECASTS CLOSELY... AS PATCHY IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE                
CARRIED NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT LIGHT/VARIABLE AT FAY.                 
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z MONDAY              
MORNING WITH HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING... THEN SCATTERED TO             
BROKEN CUMULUS SHOULD FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.             
HAVE PLACED THE ONLY MENTION OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AT FAY              
WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH                   
FORECAST CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG... AS OPPOSED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER                
NORTHWEST WHERE MID LEVEL DRYING WILL DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER TO                
BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH CAPES OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.                      
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS.              
OTHERWISE... GENERALLY A DRYING AND STABILIZING PROFILE WILL                    
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH                          
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT             
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... THERE            
ARE SOME MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO                       
IMPROVEMENTS THIS WEEK... AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A               
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLING            
TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE                 
COMING DAYS. THIS IS GREAT NEWS TO A REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED                
SOME OF THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST WEATHER ON RECORD BETWEEN AUGUST 1               
AND AUGUST 25.                                                                  
THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND DEPARTURE             
FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.18" BELOW                    
NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE RAINFALL TOTAL              
FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.85 (2.17" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE RAINFALL             
TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED... THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIEST                    
AUGUST`S ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                           
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105. AND TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE            
NORMAL... AND COULD COME CLOSE OR BREAK DAILY RECORDS.                          
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 25TH... WAS 84.6F (7.4 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.7F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
IN ADDITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR AUGUST 26TH...                               
GSO... 98 (1975)                                                                
RDU... 96 (1954)                                                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1052 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COORD WITH SPC...SUPERCELLS WEAKENING NOW...BUT VERY UNSTABLE YET               
AHD OF BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE STORMS. BUT STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE              
OUTFLOW DOMINATE SO CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND LIKELY. COORD WITH                
DLH/SPC AND BIS WAS TO GO WITH A LOCAL EXTENSION OF TOR WATCH TIL               
06Z (ADDITIONAL TWO HOURS) FOR A SMALL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL ND                 
INTO MN  MAINLY BTWN GFK/FAR TO CKN-FSE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
DID DROP TOR WATCH FOR DVL REGION AS TROUGH EAST OF THEM AND SKIES              
CLEARING. BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ROSEAU              
AREA TO GRAND FORKS THEN TO WEST OF LA MOURE AREA. EACH OF THESE                
CELLS HAVE BEEN TORNADIC AT TIMES...WITH DAMAGE REPORTED IN                     
NORTHWOOD ND. HARD TO GET A FEEL OF WHAT TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT AS                 
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS IS MORE INTO THE THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AREA AND               
NE MN... HOWEVER ALONG AND JUST AHD OF TROUGH VERY UNSTABLE                     
STILL SO STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE....BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL                    
MAINTAIN STRENGTH.                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS FOR TOR WATCH TIL 04Z FOR MUCH OF ERN ND AND NW              
MN. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL DEFINED NR A LANGDON-DVL-NEW ROCKFORD               
LINE...THEN SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF BISMARCK. EAST OF BOUNDARY                
AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG AS AIRMASS                
HAS HEATED OUT TO THE UPPER 80S AND DEW PTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE               
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CIN VALUES STILL THERE BUT WEAKENING.                  
BEST UPPER SUPPORT ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND WOULD EXPECT BEST CHC              
FOR SVR IN NRN VALLEY WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE              
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DEVELOPMENT POISED TO                 
TAKE PLACE 23Z-00Z TIME FRAME IT APPEARS. HOW ORGANIZED AND                     
WIDESPREAD SVR IS AND WHAT FORM (TORNADIC/HAIL/WIND THREAT)                     
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET FOCUSES MORE OVER ERN MN               
OVERNIGHT WITH LEFT QUAD IN WCNTRL AND SE ND. SO WOULD THINK                    
ORGANIZATION INTO A COMPLEX IS PSBL OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO SE               
ND/WCNTRL MN. AS FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL....LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT THE              
BEST....AS SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE                
SFC. PREFER TO SEE A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND FOR BEST POTENTIAL...BUT               
SUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS.PER               
SPC LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS VERY HIGH DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE               
RATES 700-500 MB.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT - WED)... FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR                 
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TONIGHT AS A COLD                   
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS OF 19Z... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS               
TO BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...EXTENDING FROM                 
NEAR MINOT TO THE DICKINSON AREA.                                               
THERE IS STILL GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...              
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER           
OF MY CWA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS STILL CAPPED.               
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION...MAINLY THE NORTHERN VALLEY REGION...18Z              
RUC IS PROGGING BY 00Z A 40KT TO 50KT LLJ WITH STRONG WAA JUST                  
NORTH OF THE BORDER. 19Z VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING CU START TO POP               
IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF A QUITE STRONG SHOWALTERS                
GRADIENT...WITH VALUES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AROUND NEG 6 BY 00Z.              
THUS...THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR                        
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL AS                  
INDICATED WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL).                   
FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE          
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL                  
PUSH EASTWARD OVER SD TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BAND OF DECENT           
H700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FORM ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SW TO THE               
NE BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE.                    
THUS...BEST QPF WILL BE IN THE EAST MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CNTRL MN. INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EAST              
PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE CWA              
TOMORROW EVENING...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF                
MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.                                                       
LONG TERM (THU - SAT)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT            
IN RAISING HEIGHTS AS FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA.                
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER               
LOW END POPS SEEM REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST                 
INTO REGION FOR PORTION OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THICKNESS AND              
THERMAL VALUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
AVIATION...VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING                
OVER FAR NW-N FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS            
NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
934 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DID DROP TOR WATCH FOR DVL REGION AS TROUGH EAST OF THEM AND SKIES              
CLEARING. BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS FROM SE MANITOBA ACROSS ROSEAU              
AREA TO GRAND FORKS THEN TO WEST OF LA MOURE AREA. EACH OF THESE                
CELLS HAVE BEEN TORNADIC AT TIMES...WITH DAMAGE REPORTED IN                     
NORTHWOOD ND. HARD TO GET A FEEL OF WHAT TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT AS                 
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS IS MORE INTO THE THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AREA AND               
NE MN... HOWEVER ALONG AND JUST AHD OF TROUGH VERY UNSTABLE                     
STILL SO STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE....BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL                    
MAINTAIN STRENGTH.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS FOR TOR WATCH TIL 04Z FOR MUCH OF ERN ND AND NW              
MN. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL DEFINED NR A LANGDON-DVL-NEW ROCKFORD               
LINE...THEN SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF BISMARCK. EAST OF BOUNDARY                
AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG AS AIRMASS                
HAS HEATED OUT TO THE UPPER 80S AND DEW PTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE               
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CIN VALUES STILL THERE BUT WEAKENING.                  
BEST UPPER SUPPORT ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND WOULD EXPECT BEST CHC              
FOR SVR IN NRN VALLEY WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE              
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DEVELOPMENT POISED TO                 
TAKE PLACE 23Z-00Z TIME FRAME IT APPEARS. HOW ORGANIZED AND                     
WIDESPREAD SVR IS AND WHAT FORM (TORNADIC/HAIL/WIND THREAT)                     
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET FOCUSES MORE OVER ERN MN               
OVERNIGHT WITH LEFT QUAD IN WCNTRL AND SE ND. SO WOULD THINK                    
ORGANIZATION INTO A COMPLEX IS PSBL OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO SE               
ND/WCNTRL MN. AS FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL....LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT THE              
BEST....AS SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE                
SFC. PREFER TO SEE A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND FOR BEST POTENTIAL...BUT               
SUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS.PER               
SPC LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS VERY HIGH DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE               
RATES 700-500 MB.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT - WED)... FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR                 
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TONIGHT AS A COLD                   
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS OF 19Z... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS               
TO BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...EXTENDING FROM                 
NEAR MINOT TO THE DICKINSON AREA.                                               
THERE IS STILL GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...              
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER           
OF MY CWA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS STILL CAPPED.               
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION...MAINLY THE NORTHERN VALLEY REGION...18Z              
RUC IS PROGGING BY 00Z A 40KT TO 50KT LLJ WITH STRONG WAA JUST                  
NORTH OF THE BORDER. 19Z VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING CU START TO POP               
IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF A QUITE STRONG SHOWALTERS                
GRADIENT...WITH VALUES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AROUND NEG 6 BY 00Z.              
THUS...THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR                        
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL AS                  
INDICATED WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL).                   
FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE          
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL                  
PUSH EASTWARD OVER SD TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BAND OF DECENT           
H700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FORM ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SW TO THE               
NE BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE.                    
THUS...BEST QPF WILL BE IN THE EAST MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CNTRL MN. INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EAST              
PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE CWA              
TOMORROW EVENING...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF                
MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.                                                       
LONG TERM (THU - SAT)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT            
IN RAISING HEIGHTS AS FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA.                
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER               
LOW END POPS SEEM REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST                 
INTO REGION FOR PORTION OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THICKNESS AND              
THERMAL VALUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
AVIATION...VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING                
OVER FAR NW-N FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS            
NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
539 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS FOR TOR WATCH TIL 04Z FOR MUCH OF ERN ND AND NW              
MN. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL DEFINED NR A LANGDON-DVL-NEW ROCKFORD               
LINE...THEN SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF BISMARCK. EAST OF BOUNDARY                
AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG AS AIRMASS                
HAS HEATED OUT TO THE UPPER 80S AND DEW PTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE               
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CIN VALUES STILL THERE BUT WEAKENING.                  
BEST UPPER SUPPORT ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND WOULD EXPECT BEST CHC              
FOR SVR IN NRN VALLEY WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE              
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DEVELOPMENT POISED TO                 
TAKE PLACE 23Z-00Z TIME FRAME IT APPEARS. HOW ORGANIZED AND                     
WIDESPREAD SVR IS AND WHAT FORM (TORNADIC/HAIL/WIND THREAT)                     
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET FOCUSES MORE OVER ERN MN               
OVERNIGHT WITH LEFT QUAD IN WCNTRL AND SE ND. SO WOULD THINK                    
ORGANIZATION INTO A COMPLEX IS PSBL OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO SE               
ND/WCNTRL MN. AS FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL....LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT THE              
BEST....AS SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE                
SFC. PREFER TO SEE A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND FOR BEST POTENTIAL...BUT               
SUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS.PER               
SPC LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS VERY HIGH DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE               
RATES 700-500 MB.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT - WED)... FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR                 
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TONIGHT AS A COLD                   
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS OF 19Z... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS               
TO BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...EXTENDING FROM                 
NEAR MINOT TO THE DICKINSON AREA.                                               
THERE IS STILL GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...              
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER           
OF MY CWA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS STILL CAPPED.               
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION...MAINLY THE NORTHERN VALLEY REGION...18Z              
RUC IS PROGGING BY 00Z A 40KT TO 50KT LLJ WITH STRONG WAA JUST                  
NORTH OF THE BORDER. 19Z VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING CU START TO POP               
IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF A QUITE STRONG SHOWALTERS                
GRADIENT...WITH VALUES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AROUND NEG 6 BY 00Z.              
THUS...THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR                        
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL AS                  
INDICATED WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL).                   
FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE          
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL                  
PUSH EASTWARD OVER SD TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BAND OF DECENT           
H700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FORM ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SW TO THE               
NE BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE.                    
THUS...BEST QPF WILL BE IN THE EAST MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CNTRL MN. INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EAST              
PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE CWA              
TOMORROW EVENING...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF                
MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.                                                       
LONG TERM (THU - SAT)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT            
IN RAISING HEIGHTS AS FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA.                
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER               
LOW END POPS SEEM REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST                 
INTO REGION FOR PORTION OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THICKNESS AND              
THERMAL VALUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
AVIATION...VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING                
OVER FAR NW-N FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS            
NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT - WED)... FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR                
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TONIGHT AS A COLD                   
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS OF 19Z... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS               
TO BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...EXTENDING FROM                 
NEAR MINOT TO THE DICKINSON AREA.                                               
THERE IS STILL GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...              
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER           
OF MY CWA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS STILL CAPPED.               
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION...MAINLY THE NORTHERN VALLEY REGION...18Z              
RUC IS PROGGING BY 00Z A 40KT TO 50KT LLJ WITH STRONG WAA JUST                  
NORTH OF THE BORDER. 19Z VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING CU START TO POP               
IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF A QUITE STRONG SHOWALTERS                
GRADIENT...WITH VALUES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AROUND NEG 6 BY 00Z.              
THUS...THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR                        
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL AS                  
INDICATED WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL).                   
FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE          
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL                  
PUSH EASTWARD OVER SD TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BAND OF DECENT           
H700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FORM ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SW TO THE               
NE BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE.                    
THUS...BEST QPF WILL BE IN THE EAST MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CNTRL MN. INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EAST              
PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE CWA              
TOMORROW EVENING...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF                
MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU - SAT)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT           
IN RAISING HEIGHTS AS FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA.                
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER               
LOW END POPS SEEM REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST                 
INTO REGION FOR PORTION OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THICKNESS AND              
THERMAL VALUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING               
OVER FAR NW-N FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS            
NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/VOELKER                                                                
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1004 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION                     
THROUGH KANSAS...WHILE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BUILDS               
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. DRY AIR ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED              
WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT                         
TODAY...LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. SHOULD MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY                  
WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. RAISED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THAT                   
AREA...CLOSER TO THE RUC VALUES...BUT THIS WAS A MINOR CHANGE.                  
ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE GROUND REMAINS VERY MOIST AND THIS AREA                
WILL BE JUST ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE WARMER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...WHICH LOOK REASONABLE.                          
&&                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER KS ATTM               
IN REGION OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW              
CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO SPREAD S INTO OK. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL                   
REMAIN TO OUR N... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE                    
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS INTO NW OK. PATCHY LIGHT FOG ALSO                    
FORMING IN SE OK. NOT PLANNING TO INCORPORATE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS                 
INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 12Z... BUT MAY NEED TO RE-FORMAT THE ZFP                
WITH A PRE-1ST PERIOD OPTION IF LOW STUFF BECOMES MORE DENSE OR                 
MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY               
AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER NM MOVES E ACROSS OK. UPPER HIGH WILL                  
MIGRATE EVENTUALLY INTO THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES BY TUE... WHICH                 
COULD ALLOW AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE GULF TO WORK W TOWARD THE                
AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM S AND E OF                
OUR AREA... BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF ADDING SOME POPS TO THE SE ZONES AS EARLY AS TUE.                
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO SAG INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WED AND              
WED NIGHT. MAIN PUSH OF THE 1025-ISH SFC HIGH AND COOLER/DRIER                  
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE E... BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR               
AND CLOUDS WORKING S BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING TEMPS DOWN TO AT                 
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THU-FRI. SINCE MAIN PUSH                  
WILL BE MORE E THAN S... FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS MAY HANG CLOSE                   
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES INTO SAT ACROSS THE W AND S.                  
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO RELOAD AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW BY                
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE S PLAINS IN A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO                     
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOCALLY. SO POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE SLIGHT                   
CHANCE RANGE FRI-SAT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         96  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           95  71  97  69 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     93  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         91  69  94  73 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/24                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
143 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO EASTERN               
NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY.  AS THE FRONT             
DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY                 
BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN MID WEEK.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM              
NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LOOKING AT THE MOTION OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE LATEST FEW VSBL SAT                  
IMAGES...LLVL TROF AXIS CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ABOUT RALEIGH DOWN TO               
COLUMBIA. LATEST RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOST OF THE SHORT             
WAVE ENERGY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE               
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. NONE OF THE FORCING IS VERY STRONG...AND            
THE LLVL FLOW PROBABLY WILL BACK SOME THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING IN THE            
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES              
AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CHANCES DEFINITELY LOOK BETTER              
DOWN TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND LOW COUNTRY. THIS IS HOW POPS ARE                  
CURRENTLY ORIENTED...AND WHILE I THINK THEY ARE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH            
SIDE...I PLAN TO KEEP THEM BASICALLY AS IS FOR THE UPDATE.                      
THIS MAY BE THE DAY WHERE WE BREAK OUR STRING OF 27 CONSECUTIVE DAYS            
OF 90 DEGREE OR GREATER MAX TEMPS AT GSP AND CLT. THIS IS THE 4TH               
LONGEST STREAK SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT HERE IN THE GSP METRO               
AREA AND THE 3RD LONGEST STRING AT CLT. I/LL BE VERY HAPPY IF WE                
DON/T MAKE IT TO NUMBER 2 AND 3 RESPECTIVELY.                                   
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING             
OVERNIGHT. MORNING LOWS AROUND 70 PIEDMONT...MAINLY 60S MTNS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF            
THE CAROLINAS WILL DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. THE POPS ARE ALIGNED ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE              
FRONT.  NEEDED TO RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE                 
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS              
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DRIER THAN THE NAM...THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSER             
AGREEMENT NOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.  BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT                
MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN MID WEEK THAN PREVIOUS.  IN THE            
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE               
SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AS A TROF               
DROPS IN TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.                             
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE            
NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES BUT NOT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THAT WE HAVE                 
HAD.  RAISED THE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY             
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONT.  RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE            
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO FEED               
CONVECTION WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE MOUNTAINS AND                   
ADJACENT VALLEYS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEP RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE                
WESTERN CONUS WITH L/W TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. GFS AND HPC                    
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND...SUPPLYING CONTINUOUS NE SFC              
WIND. I WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS OVER THE CWA FROM FRI THROUGH THE            
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO SEASONABLE                   
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID                      
ATLANTIC...AS THE SFC FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...YIELDING LITTLE INSTABILITY            
PASSED A H7 INVERSION. I WILL ADVERTISED JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE               
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OTHER OFFICES...I HAVE ELECTED TO REDEVELOP            
AN MVFR DECK LATER TONIGHT AT KCLT...KHKY AND KGSP AND KGMU - THOUGH            
THAT ASSUMES IT WILL MIX OUT AT SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY THE MOS...BUT THE ABUNDANT                
LLVL MOISTURE...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE HISTORY OF THIS AIRMASS              
ALL IMPLY A GOOD CHANCE OF STRATUS. ONCE CLOUDS DO FORM...IT IS                 
LIKELY THAT THEY WILL VERIFY QUITE A BIT LOWER...THOUGH AS I CAN/T              
TELL HOW LOW...WENT WITH 2KFT FOR NOW. KAVL SHOULD SEE DENSE VALLEY             
FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. KAND LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE              
TOO FAR SW TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT. A LIGHT EAST TO              
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                 
SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN TUE BEFORE                  
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N FOR MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THU-FRI. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS                
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEYS INCLUDING KAVL.                      
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THIS MAY BE THE DAY WHERE WE BREAK OUR STRING OF 27 CONSECUTIVE DAYS            
OF 90 DEGREE OR GREATER MAX TEMPS AT GSP AND CLT. THIS IS THE 4TH               
LONGEST STREAK SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT HERE IN THE GSP METRO               
AREA AND THE 3RD LONGEST STRING AT CLT. I/LL BE VERY HAPPY IF WE                
DON/T MAKE IT TO NUMBER 2 AND 3 RESPECTIVELY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEO                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB                                                           
SHORT TERM...DEO                                                                
LONG TERM...NED                                                                 
AVIATION...MCAVOY                                                               
CLIMATE...MCAVOY                                                                
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
826 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO BIG CHANGES                  
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                    
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND                          
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE                         
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.        
AT 20Z...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR        
SISSETON/K8D3 TO HURON/KHON TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE LOW      
LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF KHON ALONG THE FRONT...AND A WARM FRONT               
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WATERTOWN/KATY AND EASTWARD                 
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. RECENTLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN                   
MEANDERING AROUND KATY...WITH KATY MOVING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN                
THE WARM AND COOL SECTORS OF THE LOW. SURFACE CAPE VALUES JUST                  
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE SOARED TO                
OVER 5000 J/KG...WITH THE RUC PROJECTING CAPES OF 8600 J/KG AND                 
CIN VALUES OF 33 J/KG IN THIS AREA BY 21Z. NOT QUITE SURE THAT                  
WILL PAN OUT...BUT EITHER WAY WITH A WEAKENING CAP COULD SEE                    
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD              
VERY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN                   
WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR                      
ALOFT...BACKBUILDING INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN               
CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA. IN                           
ADDITION...SCATTERED STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA...MOSTLY ELEVATED ON                
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...MAY CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SEEING                 
MOSTLY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NEARLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE               
FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.                                          
THE 12/18Z RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE ENERGY MOVING                  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...FURTHER SLOWING IT DOWN AND                 
INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES                      
NORTHEAST ALONG. THUS...INCREASED POPS SOME FOR                                 
THIS...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH                   
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT...ALSO                   
THINK THAT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND                
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FOR                          
AWHILE...LIKELY INHIBITING VIEWING OF TONIGHTS TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE              
THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST                
OF THE FRONT...TONIGHT AS SATURATED AIR CONTINUES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE      
NAM/GFS/RUC INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT               
LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS.              
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT.              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
MOST OF THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN HIGH              
PRESSURE. UNDER THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL              
WITH PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE               
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS                  
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE PLAIN STATES. SURFACE LOW         
FORMS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN                
BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BY SUNDAY...WILL BE SITUATED OVER                 
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE SOUTHWESTWARD               
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND               
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH H7 TEMPERATURES OF +12C. CAP IS WEAKER                
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH H7                   
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +7 TO +10C.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1K FEET WILL CONTINUE ALONG TWEB ROUTES                     
256/257 THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...TAF SITES KPIR/KABR AND KMBG                  
SHOULD REMAIN IFR WITH CIGS MAINLY AOB 15 HUNDRED FEET AGL. THE                 
LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE KATY AREA BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TDK                                                                    
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
348 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                    
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND                          
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE                         
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.        
AT 20Z...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR        
SISSETON/K8D3 TO HURON/KHON TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE LOW      
LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF KHON ALONG THE FRONT...AND A WARM FRONT               
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WATERTOWN/KATY AND EASTWARD                 
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. RECENTLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN                   
MEANDERING AROUND KATY...WITH KATY MOVING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN                
THE WARM AND COOL SECTORS OF THE LOW. SURFACE CAPE VALUES JUST                  
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE SOARED TO                
OVER 5000 J/KG...WITH THE RUC PROJECTING CAPES OF 8600 J/KG AND                 
CIN VALUES OF 33 J/KG IN THIS AREA BY 21Z. NOT QUITE SURE THAT                  
WILL PAN OUT...BUT EITHER WAY WITH A WEAKENING CAP COULD SEE                    
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD              
VERY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN                   
WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR                      
ALOFT...BACKBUILDING INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN               
CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA. IN                           
ADDITION...SCATTERED STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA...MOSTLY ELEVATED ON                
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...MAY CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SEEING                 
MOSTLY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NEARLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE               
FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.                                          
THE 12/18Z RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE ENERGY MOVING                  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...FURTHER SLOWING IT DOWN AND                 
INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES                      
NORTHEAST ALONG. THUS...INCREASED POPS SOME FOR                                 
THIS...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH                   
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT...ALSO                   
THINK THAT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND                
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FOR                          
AWHILE...LIKELY INHIBITING VIEWING OF TONIGHTS TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE              
THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST                
OF THE FRONT...TONIGHT AS SATURATED AIR CONTINUES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE      
NAM/GFS/RUC INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT               
LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS.              
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT.              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
MOST OF THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN HIGH              
PRESSURE. UNDER THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL              
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE              
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS                  
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE PLAIN STATES. SURFACE LOW         
FORMS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN                
BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BY SUNDAY...WILL BE SITUATED OVER                 
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE SOUTHWESTWARD               
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND               
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH H7 TEMPERATURES OF +12C. CAP IS WEAKER                
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH H7                   
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +7 TO +10C.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET CONTINUES TO           
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME                
AREAS MAY SEE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 400 FEET WITH VISIBILITY                       
BEGINNING TO BE REDUCED AS WELL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG              
AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH A                  
SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM                 
NEAR K8D3 TO KHON AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN                  
SECTIONS OF TWEB ROUTES 256/257...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY              
OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON                   
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...MOSTLY AFFECTING TWEB                  
ROUTE 257 AND THE KATY TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE MORE                     
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST...AS WELL                
AS PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...SD/GIONTA                                                           
AVIATION...ECKSTEIN                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CHALLENGING CLOUD FCST AGAIN TDA.  MID LVL ACC OVR ERN CWA LARGELY              
INERT...BUT DID GET A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP ACRS               
NW IA EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DOWN IN ERN                
NEBRASKA ON TAIL OF MID LVL THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO ERN KS                  
SPINNER.  REMAINDER OF CWA IS VIRTUALLY CLEAR...BUT LARGE STRATUS               
FIELD IN PLACE OVER HEART OF NEBRASKA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT IN                
COVERAGE NOTED IN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS SPREADS SLOWLY TO THE               
NE. 12Z NAM NOT EXACTLY IN TUNE WITH REALITY ONCE AGAIN IN TERMS                
OF LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...WITH SOURCE OF ERROR PERHAPS               
DUE TO NOT SHARP AND SHALLOW ENOUGH INVERSION PER WRN RAOBS. 12Z                
LBF/BIS RAOBS DO SHOW VERY CAPPED MOIST LAYER...WHICH SHUD BE                   
EFFICIENT TO TRANSPORT CLDS NWRD AS SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN            
THRU DAY. CAP IS WEAKER TOWARD THE EAST WHERE MID LVL TMPS NOT QUITE            
AS WARM...SO SHUD SHOW SOME TENDENCY TO MIX OUT CIGS FARTHER TO E.              
CLOUD TREND IS LKLY BACKWARD AGAIN IN FCST...FROM MORE ON SUNNY SIDE            
TO MORE ON CLDY SIDE AS MOVE TO AFTN...SO PLAYED WITH TMPS TRENDS               
AND CUT BACK SOMEWHAT ON HIGHS THRU SRN CWA WHERE APPROACHING CLOUDS            
WL HAVE EARLIER EFFECT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WL WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS TO CRAWL NEWRD OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO KSUX AREA            
AFT 18Z...AND PERHAPS KFSD AREA TOWARD 20Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT HEATING            
TO PUSH CIGS TOWARD LOWER END OF VFR FOR MOST PART. REMAINDER OF                
FCST SHUD FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR                      
CIGS/VSBYS THRU KSUX/KFSD AREAS MAINLY AFT 09Z.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
CLOUD COVER A LITTLE TRICKY TO START THE DAY...WITH BROAD AREA OF               
ACCAS PERSISTING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND AREA OF STRATUS                  
EXPANDING QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODEL LOW-MID                 
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TIES IN WELL WITH ACCAS DEVELOPMENT...BUT               
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 650MB TOPPED BY VERY DRY LAYER OF               
AIR HAS PRECLUDED ANY MID LEVEL SHRA FROM DEVELOPING THIS MORNING               
AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONGER THETA-E            
ADVECTION DOES LINGER IN FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL             
LINGER SOME HIGHER SKY COVER THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST               
QUESTION FARTHER WEST IS WHETHER STRATUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA            
OR NUDGE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. RUC 90+ PERCENT 925MB RH HAS            
BEEN MATCHING UP PRETTY WELL WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH                
925MB WINDS SHIFTING TO JUST WEST OF SOUTH BY DAYBREAK...THINK                  
EASTERN EDGE OF STRATUS COULD SCRAPE GREGORY COUNTY DURING 12Z-15Z              
RANGE BEFORE DISSIPATING...AND HAVE ADDED SOME HIGHER SKY COVER                 
THERE FOR THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL.                                            
POTENTIAL FOR ACCAS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT             
ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF 800-900MB                  
THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FAR EASTERN CWA             
AROUND 06Z. FOCUS OF THESE ELEMENTS MAY BE JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...              
BUT COULD SCRAPE EASTERN EDGE AND HAVE ADDED LOW POP FOR THE SECOND             
HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANY ACCAS/PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY                
DAYBREAK...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES              
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE CAPPED                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPS                    
CLIMBING TO AROUND +14C AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND MLCIN VALUES                  
STILL ON THE ORDER OF -100 TO -200 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR AND BEHIND THE             
BOUNDARY...WITH BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH             
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL WITH WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH ND/NRN MN.              
MONDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH             
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH ABILITY TO OVERCOME CAP WILL BE KEY IN               
EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.                                                     
BOTH GFS/NAM TRENDING SLOWER THAN 25/12Z RUNS WITH FRONT MOVING                 
THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS STILL RUNNING EVEN A LITTLE             
SLOWER THAN NAM. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION                
BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF OUR CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER             
WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES TRAILS BACK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SCATTERED TSRA                   
CONTINUE NEAR 850MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH              
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING WAVES SLIDING                     
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH               
SHOULD HELP HOLD 850MB BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA DURING            
THE DAY. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS CENTERED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY             
AND TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY NOT VERY IMPRESSURE THROUGH THIS               
PERIOD...EVEN IN FAR SOUTHERN CWA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO             
BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. COULD BE A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS PAST            
WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SEE MAINLY SHRA WITH MINIMAL TSRA COVERAGE EXCEPT            
IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN              
CWA WHICH DEALT WITH HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK...WILL HAVE TO LOOK                
CLOSELY AT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THESE                 
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                       
COOL SURFACE HIGH AGAIN TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...                 
THOUGH BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING UPPER RIDGE WORKING BACK INTO                 
WESTERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. TWEAKED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY UP A FEW            
DEGREES IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH THIS...THOUGH STAYING ON THE COOL               
SIDE OF MEX GUIDANCE FOR NOW WITH ECMWF SLOWER TO WARM LOW LEVEL                
TEMPS THAN GFS.   JH                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUD COVER A LITTLE TRICKY TO START THE DAY...WITH BROAD AREA OF               
ACCAS PERSISTING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND AREA OF STRATUS                  
EXPANDING QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODEL LOW-MID                 
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TIES IN WELL WITH ACCAS DEVELOPMENT...BUT               
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 650MB TOPPED BY VERY DRY LAYER OF               
AIR HAS PRECLUDED ANY MID LEVEL SHRA FROM DEVELOPING THIS MORNING               
AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONGER THETA-E            
ADVECTION DOES LINGER IN FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL             
LINGER SOME HIGHER SKY COVER THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST               
QUESTION FARTHER WEST IS WHETHER STRATUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA            
OR NUDGE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. RUC 90+ PERCENT 925MB RH HAS            
BEEN MATCHING UP PRETTY WELL WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH                
925MB WINDS SHIFTING TO JUST WEST OF SOUTH BY DAYBREAK...THINK                  
EASTERN EDGE OF STRATUS COULD SCRAPE GREGORY COUNTY DURING 12Z-15Z              
RANGE BEFORE DISSIPATING...AND HAVE ADDED SOME HIGHER SKY COVER                 
THERE FOR THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL.                                            
POTENTIAL FOR ACCAS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT             
ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF 800-900MB                  
THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FAR EASTERN CWA             
AROUND 06Z. FOCUS OF THESE ELEMENTS MAY BE JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...              
BUT COULD SCRAPE EASTERN EDGE AND HAVE ADDED LOW POP FOR THE SECOND             
HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANY ACCAS/PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY                
DAYBREAK...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES              
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE CAPPED                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPS                    
CLIMBING TO AROUND +14C AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND MLCIN VALUES                  
STILL ON THE ORDER OF -100 TO -200 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR AND BEHIND THE             
BOUNDARY...WITH BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH             
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL WITH WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH ND/NRN MN.              
MONDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH             
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH ABILITY TO OVERCOME CAP WILL BE KEY IN               
EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.                                                     
BOTH GFS/NAM TRENDING SLOWER THAN 25/12Z RUNS WITH FRONT MOVING                 
THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS STILL RUNNING EVEN A LITTLE             
SLOWER THAN NAM. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION                
BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF OUR CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER             
WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES TRAILS BACK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SCATTERED TSRA                   
CONTINUE NEAR 850MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH              
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING WAVES SLIDING                     
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH               
SHOULD HELP HOLD 850MB BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA DURING            
THE DAY. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS CENTERED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY             
AND TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY NOT VERY IMPRESSURE THROUGH THIS               
PERIOD...EVEN IN FAR SOUTHERN CWA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO             
BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. COULD BE A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS PAST            
WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SEE MAINLY SHRA WITH MINIMAL TSRA COVERAGE EXCEPT            
IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN              
CWA WHICH DEALT WITH HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK...WILL HAVE TO LOOK                
CLOSELY AT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THESE                 
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                       
COOL SURFACE HIGH AGAIN TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...                 
THOUGH BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING UPPER RIDGE WORKING BACK INTO                 
WESTERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. TWEAKED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY UP A FEW            
DEGREES IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH THIS...THOUGH STAYING ON THE COOL               
SIDE OF MEX GUIDANCE FOR NOW WITH ECMWF SLOWER TO WARM LOW LEVEL                
TEMPS THAN GFS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS            
SERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NRN PLNS.                    
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TAFS SITES IS VERY LOW THROUGH SUN.            
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
738 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT              
OVER NRN IA/SRN MN AFT 03Z...MORE LIKELY INTO LOCAL FORECAST AREA               
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING PROFILER/VWP ANALYSIS SHOWS                  
STRONG EAST PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE WITH 30-40KT OF                       
925-850MB FLOW WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES. COLD FRONT                
ACROSS ND ALSO SPARKING INTENSE CONVECTION BUT THAT WON/T PLAY A                
ROLE IN TONIGHT/S WEATHER HERE. 26.21Z RUC...AND LATEST TRENDS IN               
SREF/DETERMINISTIC NAM-WRF SHOWING A SHIFT TOWARD MORE COVERAGE                 
TO THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL SMALL MCS DEVELOPING. LOW                    
AMPLITUDE WAVE IN SRN SD NOTED IN WV IMAGERY TO PLOD SLOWLY ALONG               
AND INTERCEPT LOW LEVEL JET AS IT VEERS TO SWLY AFT 06Z. THIS                   
SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS STRONG LOW LEVEL                    
THERMODYNAMICS ACT ON SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT MANIFESTED IN                  
MUCAPE FIELDS. FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS ON WRN SIDE OF FORECAST AREA                 
/RST/ SHOW LARGE BUOYANCY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARCELS LIFTED ON THE              
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /850-800MB/ WITH OVER 1500 J/KG CAPE.                 
TOO STRONG OF LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE                  
WEAK WAVE TO NOT INCREASE POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE IN SERN MN/NERN                 
IA...AND MAY BOOST FURTHER LATER TONIGHT ONCE EXPECTED ACCAS FIELD              
DEVELOPS. VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW STILL SHOWS A VERY STABLE CLOUD                   
FIELD NEAR FSD BUT THIS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER                    
CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE AND WAVE MOVES INTO SWRN MN. INCREASED POPS               
AS WELL FOR MONDAY MORNING AS MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WEAKEN                  
RAPIDLY. STRONGEST CORES TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE HAIL WITH STEEP                 
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
315 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT                
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                             
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE                  
FORECAST AREA WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WHICH WERE NEAR DEW POINTS.              
THUS...SOME LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE OBSERVATION               
SITES IN VALLEYS. FURTHER WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WAS MANIFESTED BY SOME            
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AND WESTERN IOWA.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.                                              
00Z 26AUG07 MODELS INITIALIZED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES WELL.           
DETERMINISTIC GFS...NAM/WRF AND ECMWF HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR MASS                   
FIELDS...ALTHOUGH THE USUAL DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH MODEL QPF.              
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA...FORECAST             
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SOME           
RAIN DURING THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED               
WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL                  
DATA...APPEARS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT ACCOMPANY             
THIS FRONT AS WAS THE CASE LAST WEEKEND.                                        
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL               
DATA SUITE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SIGNAL OF RETURNING STRONG SOUTHERLY            
FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING HIGH. RATHER BROAD FORCING SIGNAL OF LOW              
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 35-45KT NOCTURNAL 850MB                
JET SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN                 
AREAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS                   
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM/WRF...             
AS WELL AS SREF...INDICATED WEAKENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD                
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STRONG CAPPING TAKES OVER. THUS...            
ADDED LOW-END RAIN CHANCE 12Z-18Z 27AUG07...MONDAY MORNING.                     
REST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG            
CAP EVIDENT ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN               
CHANCES. BASED ON STRONG 850MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FORECAST                    
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S...               
WHICH WAS CORROBORATED BY 850MB NAM/WRF AND GFS VALUES REACHING                 
AROUND 20C.                                                                     
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BY 00Z 28AUG07...MONDAY EVENING...SHIFTS NORTH             
IN PROXIMITY OF FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED WITH BEST                
INSTABILITY. SCATTERED CONVECTION THEN EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF                  
FRONT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS                 
NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS SUPPORTED WELL           
BY DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL DATA.                                  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE EAST-WEST.             
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT SUGGESTS IT SHOULD NOT BE            
IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. GFS...NAM/WRF AND SREF DATA INDICATED           
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND VEERS ON TUESDAY...THEN REFOCUSES HIGHEST             
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF SHORT             
WAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE FRONT MAINTAINS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS                 
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SREF MEASURABLE QPF PROBABILITIES AS HIGH AS           
60 PERCENT.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
WEDNESDAY...PROXIMITY OF FRONT TO SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES MAY WARRANT AN INCREASE COMPARED            
TO VALUES IN CURRENT DATA BASE. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGES WERE MADE             
TO THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THUS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER             
EVALUATION OF LATEST MODEL DATA.                                                
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO TRANSIT             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON CONSISTENT            
SIGNAL IN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SUITE...FORECAST                 
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. CURRENT           
DATA BASE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO WELL AT THIS TIME...THUS NO CHANGES             
WERE MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS TO THE                
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH T/TD SPREADS WITHIN 5 DEGREES                  
ALREADY BY 06Z. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LOOK A BIT MORE BREEZY THAN               
PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...WITH LATEST RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KLSE              
SHOWING 10 KTS BY 1000 KFT. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME MIXING...AND IS             
NOT GOOD FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY               
CLOSELY BEFORE 12Z TAF ISSUANCES FOR LSE...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.              
ASIDE FROM THIS FOG POTENTIAL FOR KLSE THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS            
WILL BE THE RULE INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE              
SOUTH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE THREAT FOR SOME              
-SHRA/-TSRA RETURNS OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE RETURN            
SPARK SOME PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MN/IA/WESTERN WI.                       
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT-LONG TERM...THOMPSON                                                      
AVIATION..........RIECK                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
331 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SFC DATA SHOWS WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN LAYER RIDGE FROM SFC              
TO 500 MB IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUAL LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES             
MEAN HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF FLAGLER COUNTY. LLVL WINDS ARE           
LIGHT FROM THE S WITH RADAR INDICATING SCT CONVECTION OFFSHORE IN GA            
WATERS AND SC WATERS CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WAS             
POISED FROM OFF THE NC COAST TO SRN SC INTO GA WHERE IT BECAME MORE             
DIFFUSE. ANTICIPATE THAT AS CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO THIN THAT                 
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND RIDGING ALOFT.                  
.SHORT TERM...MODELS IN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE                
WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SWD WITH BEST MOISTURE INDICATED OVER GA ZONES.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50% THERE TODAY AND AROUND 30-40% FL ZONES. PWATS            
STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES SO WITH WEAK WINDS HEAVY RAINFALL IS             
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.                                                      
TONIGHT...GIVEN MOSTLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SEE MOST             
CONVECTION DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR OVER PORTIONS OF SE              
GA WHERE THE FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO NE CWA AREA. PATCHY FOG              
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRONT...POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE...AND RIDGE             
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SSW INTO THE FL ZONES WITH                 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST POPS OVER SRN ZONES AND LOW END              
CHANCE OVER GA ZONES. HAVE PLACED 60% OVER SE ZONES AND 40-50% REST             
OF FL ZONES. AS FRONT CONTS TO SHIFT SSW CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE             
IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN              
AND NRN ZONES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING            
WITH TIME WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE.              
PLANNING ON ONLY 20% OVER W AND S ZONES. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF THE SE            
U.S. COAST WILL DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE                 
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.                                            
THURSDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES            
TO NEAR 20-30%. HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.            
BEST CHANCES WILL BE INLAND CLOSER TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.                  
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-MONDAY). UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER            
THE SE U.S. WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ILL-DEFINED FROM NEAR WRN             
FL PANHANDLE WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY BE TO CENTRAL FL. BEST                 
MOISTURE WILL BE W AND S OF THE CWA. BY SATURDAY-MONDAY...WEAKER MID            
LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WLY FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW                   
PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE INTO THE REGION AGAIN.             
DUE TO 500 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CWA...IMPULSES ALSO SHOULD AID                 
CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS POPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY            
INCREASE BUT WILL CAP AT 40% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL             
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO MVFR THIS MORNING AT JAX AND CRG               
AND IFR AT GNV WHICH ALL EXPERIENCED SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FROM YSTDYS            
CONVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN/EVENING TSRA IS EXPECTED TODAY                
WITH TEMPO GROUPS HIGHLIGHTING CONVECTION BETWEEN 19-23Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT SSE FLOW WILL BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTN WITH WINDS             
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-3 FT WITH AROUND A 1.6-2 FT             
SWELL PER BUOYS 41008 AND 41009. A WEAK NNE SURGE IS EXPECTED WED A             
FRONT SLIDES SW OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY WINDS 15-20 KTS                     
POSSIBLE...BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. ELY FLOW 10 KTS AND                
SEAS 2-3 FT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THU-SAT AS WEAK FRONT LINGERS                
OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  91  71  91  70 /  50  40  30  10                                           
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  50  40  30  10                                           
JAX  92  73  91  72 /  40  40  40  10                                           
SGJ  89  75  88  73 /  30  30  50  10                                           
GNV  92  73  92  71 /  40  30  50  20                                           
OCF  93  73  93  72 /  40  20  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ENYEDI                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
407 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED ARE THE MAIN FCST              
ISSUES.                                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN             
THE RESULTING SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE              
LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA. ONE SHORTWAVE (NOW MOVING JUST NE             
OF MN ARROWHEAD) IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT              
MOVED OVER NW WI INTO W AND CNTRL UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
NIGHT. 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER 00Z KMPX SOUNDING PROVIDED NICE                   
SUPPORT FOR THE CONVECTION. LATEST OBS FROM PROFILER NETWORK SHOW               
30-45KT LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED INTO NRN WI. SO SUPPORT FOR STORMS                  
OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. 850MB TROF APPEARS TO RUN               
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MN...NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SFC COLD FRONT.                
SHRA/TSRA LINE UP FAIRLY WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF.                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT               
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN TIMING ANY              
SFC WAVES RIPPLING UP THE FRONT...IN PARTICULAR TONIGHT/EARLY WED.              
NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FRONT...BUT HAS SHOWN VERY POOR            
CONSISTENCY ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY SFC WAVES ALONG FRONT. GFS HAS            
SHOWN MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY...SHOWING A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM SRN             
WI TONIGHT TO LAKE HURON WED AFTN. GIVEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY OF              
GFS WITH REGIONAL CANADIAN SUPPORTING GFS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS            
FOR THIS FCST.                                                                  
EXPECT ONGOING SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET              
FORCING WEAKENS. ITS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY END ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE                
FCST AREA FOR A TIME. DURING THE AFTN...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY               
TRACKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED               
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH               
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG...                   
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOCATION OF FRONT EARLY            
THIS AFTN (ROUGHLY FROM L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET) SUGGESTS SVR STORMS               
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI.                
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS.                                
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC WAVE THAT MAY LIFT NE ALONG FRONT DURING            
THE NIGHT. AT FIRST GLANCE...IT MAY SEEM THAT THE SWATH OF HVY                  
PCPN THE GFS SHOWS NW OF SFC LOW IS SUSPECT...BUT PRESENCE OF THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET...CORRESPONDING BAND OF DECENT                      
LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND POOLING OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE            
WATER (175-200PCT OF NORMAL) ALONG 850MB FRONT SUPPORT THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL. PLACEMENT IS SO CRITICAL THOUGH. IF            
FRONT SAGS TOO FAR S TODAY...BAND OF PCPN WILL MISS THE FCST AREA. AT           
THIS POINT...WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE FAR SCNTRL INTO SE FCST AREA              
GIVEN CONSISTENCY FOR THAT AREA TO BE UNDER BETTER FORCING. WILL                
RETAIN DRY FCST NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                              
WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC WAVE/UPPER JET SUPPORT...ANY LINGERING SHRA               
WILL END OVER THE SE FCST AREA WED MORNING. ONCE RAIN EXITS...                  
DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE LATER WED THRU THU AS SFC HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD BE                
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF AUG. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD            
BE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES NOSES E INTO UPPER MI. STAYED ALONG               
LINES OF INHERITED FCST BY GOING AOB MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR             
W HALF. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40F AS CORE OF                 
DRIER AIR PASSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES (GFS FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER              
OF 0.4-0.5 INCH) TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU WITH LITTLE TIME AVBL FOR CHECKING LATEST            
GUIDANCE DUE TO MONITORING OF ONGOING STORMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONVECTION OVER MN EARLIER THIS EVENING IS SURVIVING INTO THE WEST              
U.P. MAY SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER AT KCMX FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.                       
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY TAPER OFF AT KCMX THROUGH 12Z              
WITH DRYING TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. CHC FOR CONVECTION AT KSAW WILL             
BE LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS OVR WEST U.P. STRUGGLE EAST INTO LESS                
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PCPN. ALSO COULD SEE SOME PCPN LATE TUE               
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP BTWN 20Z            
AND 24Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
332 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                 
MOIST UPPER TROUGH TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT AND THIS              
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG FAVORABLE 90KT JET                    
POSITION. LIFTED INDEXES HAVE BEEN ABOVE ZERO RESULTING IN MAINLY               
JUST SHOWERS...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINIMAL TSTORMS...AS              
A FEW CELLS HAVE EXCEEDED 50 DBZ. A NEW COLD FRONTAL ZONE                       
SEPARATING TWO COOL CANADIAN AIR MASSES ALSO COMING INTO PLAY AS IT             
MOVES E ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL WITH                   
THIS SYSTEM EITHER...AS PRECIP TURNED OUT HEAVIER AND FARTHER N IN              
OUR AREA...7 TENTHS AT MEDICINE LAKE...HALF AN INCH IN POPLAR AND               
WOLF POINT. SYSTEM MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED TOO...AND LATEST         
NAM AND RUC NOW HAVING MEAN 80 RH LINE...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING                 
TO SHOWER AREA...OUT OF CWA BY NOON.                                            
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER S AB AND INTO NC MT TO               
SPREAD CLEARING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WNW TODAY. TEMPS IN UPPER              
30S AND LOWER 40S COMMON IN THIS AREA AT 3 AM. OVERALL NOT MUCH                 
CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY IN OUR ARA WITH THICKNESSES AND                
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR. GAIN OR LOSS OF CLOUD COVER OVER YESTERDAY                
THE MAIN FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY.                                                 
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL SURFACE HIGH FROM AB OVER AREA TONIGHT.                 
WITH PRECIP ENDING BY NOON MOST AREAS...PLENTY OF TIME FOR DRYING               
OF THE AIRMASS WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY ADVECTION. THIS WILL PREVENT               
ANY FOG FORMATION DESPITE TODAYS RAIN...AND ALSO SHOULD PROVIDE                 
FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST LOWS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 TEMPS DROP TO                
AROUND 8C IN OUR N OVERNIGHT...WHICH UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING CONDITIONS USUALLY MEANS SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. LOCAL E               
WIND IN MILK VALLEY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS FOR              
GGW AREA ONLY.                                                                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VERY CONSISTENTLY LATELY THAT A STRONG UPPER        
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW STATES WILL EXPAND N STRONGLY INTO MT WED AND             
THU. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB TO UPPER 580S DM...THICKNESSES TO 580                 
DM...850 MB TEMPS TO 25-28C. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE                
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THU. WILL GO MIDDLE GROUND ON MOS                 
NUMBERS. WARMING BEGINS WED UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH LOW               
LEVEL S FLOW STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FULL SUNSHINE. THIS                
HOLDS TRUE FOR THU WITH MEAN RH FALLING TO UNDER 30 PCT IN                      
AFTERNOON. SIMONSEN                                                             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                  
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.               
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HOT THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY                
DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A FROPA                  
EARLY SATURDAY LEADS TO A COOLER, BUT STILL WARM SUNDAY THROUGH                 
TUESDAY PERIOD. POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO SCARCE              
MOISTURE, HOWEVER WIGGLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD                     
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA SATURDAY. AFTER SOME                    
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS                
SUGGEST MORE RIDGE-BUILDING OVER MONTANA INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH                
SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. WJM                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A ROUND OF              
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER. THESE WILL CLEAR               
FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 17Z. SURFACE                 
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST FROM SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY. PREVAILING OVERCAST CLOUD BASES ABOVE 7000 FT WITH                    
CEILINGS DOWN TO 3000 FT IN SHOWERS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS DRY WITH              
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WJM                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
243 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                   
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE                     
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE                 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA                    
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY                  
SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES                
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
STABILITY HAS INCREASED ON MSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS                  
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SURFACE THETA-E. DEW POINTS                    
CONTINUED TO BE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...AND WINDS               
FROM THE KRAX WSR-88D WERE AROUND 15KTS AT 1000FT. THESE WINDS                  
TEND TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRATUS...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS...MOSTLY                  
SC...WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO                    
NUMEROUS LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE DIMINISHING TO FEW-TO-SCATTERED              
CU AND SCATTERED...MOSTLY THIN...CIRRUS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE                   
DIFFUSE DEW POINT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...IN ABOUT THE SAME                     
LOCATION AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. 700MB THETA-E REALLY DIMINISHES ON BOTH               
THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS FOR TODAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING                 
UNDER THE HIGH. DESPITE A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST BY                
THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON...850MB DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST WITH CAPPED               
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AT                  
500MB IN PARTICULAR ON THE 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS. 850MB TEMPERATURES                
ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AS FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND                 
THE GFS AND SUSPECT HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO MONDAY VALUES.                
LOCAL 1000-850MB TEMPERATURE SCHEME YIELDS LOWER 90S...AND WILL GO              
CLOSE TO THIS OR MAYBE JUST A SHADE LOWER BASED ON MONDAY HIGHS.                
THERE MAY BE A FEW...BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS                   
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT AS THE               
HIGH BUILDS IN AND WHERE 850MB AND 925MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE               
BETWEEN 10 AND 20KT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW              
THETA-E VALUES...ESPECIALLY AT 700MB...CONTINUING THROUGH THEN.                 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                  
NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEPICTS THIS TROUGH              
FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BISECTING THE STATE...          
WHILE THE NAM FORECASTS THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                 
BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                     
ESSENTIALLY CAPPED. THE CAP IS WEAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...AND                   
MORE NOTICEABLE ON THE GFS WITH A TOUCH OF WARMING ALOFT BETWEEN                
600MB AND 500MB. MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRONG THROUGH                       
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AS                 
THEY BECOME THURSDAY PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. WILL OPT TO               
HAVE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE                
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN BETTER                  
INSTABILITY...A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING MID-LEVEL                   
THETA-E ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BETTER FORECAST 700MB AND 850MB                
UVV ALBEIT WEAK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE MID-LEVEL                   
RIDGE. GIVEN THE SLACK GRADIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED...RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE GFS               
IS DRY WITH ITS QPF THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK THE BEST CHANCE                
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE               
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE ARE HIGHER...AND WHERE SOMETHING               
THAT MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING                  
SOUTH IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH CHANGED                
FROM TUESDAY AND MAINLY 90 TO 95.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE NAM THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACTUALLY SHOWS                  
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
WITH DIMINISHING K INDICES. THE GFS IS ALMOST AS UNIMPRESSIVE                   
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH                  
WEAKENS. BASED ON THIS HAVE DIMINISHED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE                 
DAY. EVENTUALLY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD                  
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...AND                       
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.                          
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT SAT THROUGH MON. THIS                
MAY CAUSE FRONT TO STALL/DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA SAT               
INTO SUN. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED CHANCE                
POP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SAT. BY SUN...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH              
RIDGING NEAR SURFACE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO GO               
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUN INTO MON.                                               
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPS                    
POSSIBLY TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER            
HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE A RETURN TO MUCH               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR            
STILL HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA...WE SHOULD              
BE IN FOR ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND                       
VISIBILITIES. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH THE IFR                     
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND            
WITH LIGHT TO CALM AIR AT THE SURFACE...TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW              
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z-09Z. THESE LOW CIGS/VIS WILL MIX OUT              
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SURFACE                
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. GFS/NAM BUFR            
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY...CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO              
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL                   
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NAM BUFR                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WITH A SATURATED NEAR-SFC LAYER AND 15KT ENE/NE FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER AND              
SREF PROBABILITIES FOR CIGS < 1KFT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE UNDER               
5-10%. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS                
OUT OF THE FAY/RWI TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL               
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.           
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY                 
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING                
MVFR/IFR VIS IN FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS               
(FAY/RWI) THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED               
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH             
AUGUST 27... 26.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT RALEIGH-DURHAM... 62.                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR GREENSBORO THROUGH                 
AUGUST 27... 24.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT GREENSBORO... 46.                                                         
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105.                                                             
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 27TH... WAS 84.5F (7.3 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.5F (7.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE                 
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.               
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD                
TO IMPROVEMENTS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF                       
SEPTEMBER.                                                                      
THROUGH AUGUST 27...THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND                        
DEPARTURE FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.42"                
BELOW NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 27...THE RAINFALL               
TOTAL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.91 (2.35" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE                
RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED...THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE                   
DRIEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                     
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJF                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
LONG TERM...DJF/WSS                                                             
AVIATION...BV                                                                   
CLIMATE...STAFF                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
156 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                 
TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL BUILD SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A               
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING DRY AND                    
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                            
SFC RUC STREAMLINES FROM THE RUC INDICATES SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY ON.  THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL DRIFT OFF THE              
COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE RUC AND THE WRF NOW INDICATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS             
BY TUE MORNING. WITH THE AID OF FORCING FROM ABOVE AND SFC                      
CONVERGENCE...THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE ENGINE OVER THE WATERS SHULD             
EASILY FIRE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE                      
WATER...AND EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A QUICK DROP TO               
ISOLATED OR NULL CHANCES ESPECIALLY WHEN U GET WEST OF THE I-95                 
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT WITH MSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME               
GOOD CANDIDATES FOR AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
THE DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE WESTERN ILM COUNTIES BY THE MODELS                
OVERNIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...AND THERE4 HAVE STAYED WITH            
THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FOR THE FOG/POSSIBLY DENSE VIA FOG             
STABILITY OUTPUT FROM 00Z RAOB SOUNDINGS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON PACKAGE CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. DIFFUSE                 
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN A FOCUS            
FOR CONVECTION. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUR                     
CONSIDERABLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.                        
INHERITED POPS HAD THE TEMPORAL TREND LAID OUT NICELY WITH HIGHEST              
VALUES IN THE MORNING HOURS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST               
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH LOWER VALUES. TWEAKED POPS DOWN              
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
WORTH NOTING IS THE FEATURE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING OFF CAPE FEAR LATE            
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS              
FEEDBACK.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE NICE DAY TO HOPEFULLY DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS              
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO                
UPPER 80S UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL LOOKING FOR A TRANSITION INTO AN EAST COAST UPPER TROF BY THE             
WEEKEND.  SFC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER SLOPPY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODEL             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING.  THIS WILL BE THE            
HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND NO              
MENTION OF PRECIP.                                                              
GFS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA...NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE             
COAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z SAT.   HPC FORECAST IS FASTER AND MORE                    
CONVINCING WITH THE FROPA.  WILL NOT BITE ON THE DRY MEX POPS FOR               
FRIDAY AND KEEP THE CHANCE IN THERE...AND CARRY IT ON INTO SATURDAY.            
DRY FORECAST SUN-MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW CLIMO.  BELIEVE THAT THE             
BUST POTENTIAL LIES IN THE FRONT BEING ABLE TO GET FARTHER SOUTH                
THAN ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD CUT INTO THE SATURDAY PRECIP POTENTIAL            
AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN EVEN COOLER WEEKEND TEMPS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
TAFS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG            
AND/OR LOW STRATUS THRU EARLY MORNING. OVERALL FOR TODAY THERE WILL             
BE PERIODIC CLOUD DECKS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LOWER               
CHC OF PCP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW             
DAYS. THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS THROUGH                 
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                             
THE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE             
ILM WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD LIKELY               
BECOMING NE 10 KT. SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE              
IN DIRECTION DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT...BUT WILL              
ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT A PREDOMINATE DIRECTION. A 2 FOOT 10-12 SEC                
PERIOD ESE SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.                    
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                            
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS                   
TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO              
BE 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS VIA 925/850MB PROGS              
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS               
WILL REMAIN BENIGN WITH A 2-3 FT. RANGE.                                        
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH WIND            
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.  WIND DIRECTION WILL            
BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY THE SEABREEZE THU INTO FRI. LATEST GFS DOES             
NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL SAT MORNING...AND              
EVEN AFTER IT DOES THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SURGE BEHIND IT.                      
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK/DCH                                                              
NEAR TERM...DCH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...MAC/DCH                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
309 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE               
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION                       
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TODAY WITHIN LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW. E                 
PIEDMONT FAIRLY STABLE TODAY BUT CAPES INCREASE OVER MTNS AND W                 
CWA THIS AFTN...ESP S MTNS IN AREA OF BEST UPSLOPE...SO HAVE LOW                
CHANCE POPS THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE REST OF MTNS AND                  
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF MAINLY W PART OF CWA. MODELS WERE                
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS AND USED A BLEND FOR AROUND 90                     
PIEDMONT...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MTNS.                                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT MODELS             
WANT TO KEEP WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ALONG SW CWA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OVER MTNS WHERE WEAK                   
UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT MORNING LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70                 
PIEDMONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MTNS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
BOTH THE 28/00 UTC RUNS OF THE OP GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO HANDLE                    
SIMILARLY THE SWWD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST                
WEDNESDAY AND THE COMMENCEMENT OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE CWFA.                
WE ACTUALLY WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITHIN              
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME. DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS DEPICTED QUITE               
DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALTHOUGH I DO FEEL THAT              
A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT IS LIKELY...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACRS THE                 
MTNS. SENSIBLE WX FCST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LOW TO SLIGHT                   
CHANCES FOR TSTMS...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS/FTHLS WITH MAX TEMPS                   
CONTINUING TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.                                             
HAVE MADE AN UPWARD TWEAK TO THE NIGHTTIME POPS WEDNESDAY ACRS THE              
MTNS BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT WEAK IMPULSES COULD ALLOW FOR                
LINGERING OR RENEWED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH THE                 
28/00 UTC OP GFS/NAM AND 27/21 UTC SREF GENERATE SOME TYPE OF                   
RESPONSE TO THE WEAK FORCING PRESENT ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA THROUGH              
12 UTC THU.                                                                     
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CREEP LOWER ON THURSDAY AS CWFA REMAINS               
WITHIN NW FLOW ALONG BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC                   
TROUGHING. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE             
REGION AND WITH RH ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...TSTM             
CHANCES WILL BE EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWFA.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
DEEP RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH L/WV TROUGHING             
OVER THE EAST COAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED                 
TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...SUPPLYING A                    
CONTINUOUS NE SFC WIND. PLAN TO KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS OVER THE                  
CWFA FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO              
COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL                   
BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AS THE SFC FRONT PUSHES FURTHER                 
SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE                        
LIMITED...YIELDING LITTLE INSTABILITY PASS THE 700 MB INVERSION.                
SCHC POPS LIMITED TO ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL BE                    
MAINTAINED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
GENERAL PATTERN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL           
FLOW LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. OBS AND SAT TRENDS SHOW NOT MUCH             
DEVELOPING YET. RUC SHOWS LESS MOISTURE AND THAT FLOW IS WEAKER SO              
UPSLOPE NOT QUITE AS GOOD. EXPECT MVFR FOG TO FORM ALL SITES...IFR              
AT KAVL....LIFTING BY 14-15Z. FCST POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE MOST SITES            
TODAY SO NO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.                                           
AVIATION OUTLOOK...THRU SAT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN                      
FROM THE N FOR MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE               
NORTH THU INTO FRI. PATCHY MORNING FOG PSBL EACH DAY...ESP KAVL.                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...CSH/NED                                                             
AVIATION...RB                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.PUBLIC UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING               
WITH SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT OUR NORTHERN-MOST                 
GEORGIA ZONES WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY             
TO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1000/500 MB MEAN LAYER HIGH IS CURRENTLY               
POSITIONED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO                   
PRESS WESTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                
HOLD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC                          
MOISTURE/GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL FOCUS OVER OUR GEORGIA ZONES TODAY...           
THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF JAX              
CWA. ACROSS OUR FLORIDA ZONES...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY             
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHIFTING            
WEST...CREATING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEABREEZE-INDUCED                 
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN POPS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS            
OUR FLORIDA ZONES.                                                              
12Z KJAX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE QUITE MOIST CONDITIONS WITH             
PWAT OF 2 INCHES. AFTER MODIFYING SOUNDING USING MOD PARCEL OF                  
92/73...A CAPE VALUE OF 3500 J/KG WAS REALIZED (VERY UNSTABLE).                 
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE           
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF WET MICRO-BURSTS AND FREQUENT           
CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK STEERING FLOW TO THE            
SOUTH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE CONCERNS ARE           
ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN THE MIAHWOJAX PRODUCT. HAIL CONCERN IS QUITE            
MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVEL/WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT ABOVE 13 KFT.            
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CELLS OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...             
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE...FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS GIVEN              
STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.                         
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO FRESHEN 1ST PERIOD ZONES...OTHERWISE PACKAGE                 
APPEARS ON TRACK.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF FOG ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH VFR                     
CONDITIONS ONGOING (OR QUICKLY ESTABLISHING BY 13Z). CONVECTION                 
WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING AROUND 16Z DUE            
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO THE NORTH             
WITH CONVECTION LIKELY ESTABLISHING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY 18Z.            
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FULLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 00-01Z. WEAK PRESSURE            
PATTERN WILL YET AGAIN PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...REGIONAL OBS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOCAL                
WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA                    
WATERS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. SEAS                    
CONTINUE IN A 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL. NOT                
MUCH CHANGE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON              
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...SFC DATA SHOWS WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA              
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN LAYER RIDGE FROM              
SFC TO 500 MB IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUAL LAPS ANALYSIS                   
INDICATES MEAN HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF FLAGLER COUNTY. LLVL           
WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE S WITH RADAR INDICATING SCT CONVECTION                 
OFFSHORE IN GA WATERS AND SC WATERS CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY. FRONT WAS POISED FROM OFF THE NC COAST TO SRN SC INTO GA              
WHERE IT BECAME MORE DIFFUSE. ANTICIPATE THAT AS CLOUD DEBRIS                   
CONTINUES TO THIN THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS              
AND RIDGING ALOFT.                                                              
.SHORT TERM...MODELS IN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE                
WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SWD WITH BEST MOISTURE INDICATED OVER GA ZONES.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50% THERE TODAY AND AROUND 30-40% FL ZONES. PWATS            
STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES SO WITH WEAK WINDS HEAVY RAINFALL IS             
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.                                                      
TONIGHT...GIVEN MOSTLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SEE MOST             
CONVECTION DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR OVER PORTIONS OF SE              
GA WHERE THE FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO NE CWA AREA. PATCHY FOG              
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRONT...POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE...AND RIDGE             
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SSW INTO THE FL ZONES WITH                 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST POPS OVER SRN ZONES AND LOW END              
CHANCE OVER GA ZONES. HAVE PLACED 60% OVER SE ZONES AND 40-50% REST             
OF FL ZONES. AS FRONT CONTS TO SHIFT SSW CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE             
IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN              
AND NRN ZONES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING            
WITH TIME WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE.              
PLANNING ON ONLY 20% OVER W AND S ZONES. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF THE SE            
U.S. COAST WILL DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE                 
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.                                            
THURSDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES            
TO NEAR 20-30%. HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.            
BEST CHANCES WILL BE INLAND CLOSER TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.                  
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-MONDAY). UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER            
THE SE U.S. WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ILL-DEFINED FROM NEAR WRN             
FL PANHANDLE WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY BE TO CENTRAL FL. BEST                 
MOISTURE WILL BE W AND S OF THE CWA. BY SATURDAY-MONDAY...WEAKER MID            
LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WLY FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW                   
PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE INTO THE REGION AGAIN.             
DUE TO 500 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CWA...IMPULSES ALSO SHOULD AID                 
CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS POPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY            
INCREASE BUT WILL CAP AT 40% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL             
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPPE                                                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION (1128 AM EDT)...                                                    
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN            
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE               
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW ARE OVER NORTH              
DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A             
LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST                   
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA OVER THE             
EASTERN U.P.                                                                    
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS A                  
LITTLE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD                
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BY MID               
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
STRETCHING FROM SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE             
FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE                
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON. RUC INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 1200J/KG ACROSS THE AREA              
AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                      
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DEEP                
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL                
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITIY WILL BE OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR A CHANGE ARE DEALING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS             
MORNING OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE AT KCMX IS THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN            
CHANCES AT KSAW...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY EMBEDDED                
THUNDER CHANCES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN AT KSAW               
ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR THE                
GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH               
ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS            
AND VSBY AT KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION (407 AM EDT)...                                                     
PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED ARE THE MAIN FCST              
ISSUES.                                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN             
THE RESULTING SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE              
LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA. ONE SHORTWAVE (NOW MOVING JUST NE             
OF MN ARROWHEAD) IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT              
MOVED OVER NW WI INTO W AND CNTRL UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
NIGHT. 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER 00Z KMPX SOUNDING PROVIDED NICE                   
SUPPORT FOR THE CONVECTION. LATEST OBS FROM PROFILER NETWORK SHOW               
30-45KT LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED INTO NRN WI. SO SUPPORT FOR STORMS                  
OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. 850MB TROF APPEARS TO RUN               
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MN...NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SFC COLD FRONT.                
SHRA/TSRA LINE UP FAIRLY WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF.                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT               
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN TIMING ANY              
SFC WAVES RIPPLING UP THE FRONT...IN PARTICULAR TONIGHT/EARLY WED.              
NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FRONT...BUT HAS SHOWN VERY POOR            
CONSISTENCY ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY SFC WAVES ALONG FRONT. GFS HAS            
SHOWN MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY...SHOWING A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM SRN             
WI TONIGHT TO LAKE HURON WED AFTN. GIVEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY OF              
GFS WITH REGIONAL CANADIAN SUPPORTING GFS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS            
FOR THIS FCST.                                                                  
EXPECT ONGOING SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET              
FORCING WEAKENS. ITS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY END ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE                
FCST AREA FOR A TIME. DURING THE AFTN...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY               
TRACKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED               
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH               
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG...                   
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOCATION OF FRONT EARLY            
THIS AFTN (ROUGHLY FROM L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET) SUGGESTS SVR STORMS               
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI.                
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS.                                
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC WAVE THAT MAY LIFT NE ALONG FRONT DURING            
THE NIGHT. AT FIRST GLANCE...IT MAY SEEM THAT THE SWATH OF HVY                  
PCPN THE GFS SHOWS NW OF SFC LOW IS SUSPECT...BUT PRESENCE OF THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET...CORRESPONDING BAND OF DECENT                      
LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND POOLING OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE            
WATER (175-200PCT OF NORMAL) ALONG 850MB FRONT SUPPORT THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL. PLACEMENT IS SO CRITICAL THOUGH. IF            
FRONT SAGS TOO FAR S TODAY...BAND OF PCPN WILL MISS THE FCST AREA. AT           
THIS POINT...WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE FAR SCNTRL INTO SE FCST AREA              
GIVEN CONSISTENCY FOR THAT AREA TO BE UNDER BETTER FORCING. WILL                
RETAIN DRY FCST NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                              
WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC WAVE/UPPER JET SUPPORT...ANY LINGERING SHRA               
WILL END OVER THE SE FCST AREA WED MORNING. ONCE RAIN EXITS...                  
DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE LATER WED THRU THU AS SFC HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD BE                
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF AUG. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD            
BE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES NOSES E INTO UPPER MI. STAYED ALONG               
LINES OF INHERITED FCST BY GOING AOB MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR             
W HALF. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40F AS CORE OF                 
DRIER AIR PASSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES (GFS FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER              
OF 0.4-0.5 INCH) TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU WITH LITTLE TIME AVBL FOR CHECKING LATEST            
GUIDANCE DUE TO MONITORING OF ONGOING STORMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR A CHANGE ARE DEALING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS             
MORNING OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE AT KCMX IS THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN            
CHANCES AT KSAW...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY EMBEDDED                
THUNDER CHANCES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN AT KSAW               
ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR THE                
GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH               
ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS            
AND VSBY AT KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
850 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                 
THE WAVE THAT GENERATED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IS                  
EXITING EAST RAPIDLY. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON WITH ONLY A               
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST                    
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WENT A                  
HEAD AND DROPPED POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPERED BACK POPS IN THE                  
EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THIS              
MORNING SO INCREASED SKY COVER ALONG THE NEIGHBORS. ALSO INCREASED              
AFTERNOON SKY COVER A BIT SINCE CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO                   
VACATE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES                  
NECESSARY THERE. SCT                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
MOIST UPPER TROUGH TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT AND THIS              
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG FAVORABLE 90KT JET                    
POSITION. LIFTED INDEXES HAVE BEEN ABOVE ZERO RESULTING IN MAINLY               
JUST SHOWERS...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINIMAL TSTORMS...AS              
A FEW CELLS HAVE EXCEEDED 50 DBZ. A NEW COLD FRONTAL ZONE                       
SEPARATING TWO COOL CANADIAN AIR MASSES ALSO COMING INTO PLAY AS IT             
MOVES E ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL WITH                   
THIS SYSTEM EITHER...AS PRECIP TURNED OUT HEAVIER AND FARTHER N IN              
OUR AREA...7 TENTHS AT MEDICINE LAKE...HALF AN INCH IN POPLAR AND               
WOLF POINT. SYSTEM MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED TOO...AND LATEST         
NAM AND RUC NOW HAVING MEAN 80 RH LINE...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING                 
TO SHOWER AREA...OUT OF CWA BY NOON.                                            
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER S AB AND INTO NC MT TO               
SPREAD CLEARING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WNW TODAY. TEMPS IN UPPER              
30S AND LOWER 40S COMMON IN THIS AREA AT 3 AM. OVERALL NOT MUCH                 
CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY IN OUR ARA WITH THICKNESSES AND                
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR. GAIN OR LOSS OF CLOUD COVER OVER YESTERDAY                
THE MAIN FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY.                                                 
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL SURFACE HIGH FROM AB OVER AREA TONIGHT.                 
WITH PRECIP ENDING BY NOON MOST AREAS...PLENTY OF TIME FOR DRYING               
OF THE AIRMASS WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY ADVECTION. THIS WILL PREVENT               
ANY FOG FORMATION DESPITE TODAYS RAIN...AND ALSO SHOULD PROVIDE                 
FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST LOWS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 TEMPS DROP TO                
AROUND 8C IN OUR N OVERNIGHT...WHICH UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING CONDITIONS USUALLY MEANS SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. LOCAL E               
WIND IN MILK VALLEY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS FOR              
GGW AREA ONLY.                                                                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VERY CONSISTENTLY LATELY THAT A STRONG UPPER        
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW STATES WILL EXPAND N STRONGLY INTO MT WED AND             
THU. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB TO UPPER 580S DM...THICKNESSES TO 580                 
DM...850 MB TEMPS TO 25-28C. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE                
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THU. WILL GO MIDDLE GROUND ON MOS                 
NUMBERS. WARMING BEGINS WED UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH LOW               
LEVEL S FLOW STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FULL SUNSHINE. THIS                
HOLDS TRUE FOR THU WITH MEAN RH FALLING TO UNDER 30 PCT IN                      
AFTERNOON. SIMONSEN                                                             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                  
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.               
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HOT THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY                
DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A FROPA                  
EARLY SATURDAY LEADS TO A COOLER, BUT STILL WARM SUNDAY THROUGH                 
TUESDAY PERIOD. POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO SCARCE              
MOISTURE, HOWEVER WIGGLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD                     
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA SATURDAY. AFTER SOME                    
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS                
SUGGEST MORE RIDGE-BUILDING OVER MONTANA INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH                
SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. WJM                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KMLS TO KISN MOVING IN A               
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING. SOME AREAS OF LOW              
CLOUDS WITH CIGS BKN- OVC020 BUT MOST AREAS IN NEMONT ARE BKN070                
OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH                         
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND LOWER CLOUD DECKS DISSIPATING. A LIGHT                 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR                
THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. FRANSEN                           
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1013 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD OUR              
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
12Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM GSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER DEEP MOISTURE             
COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB WITH TOTAL PWATS AT 1.4 INCHES.                   
HOWEVER...JUST NORTH AT WALLOPS ISLAND...DRYING WAS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT          
THE SOUNDING WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800 MB AND                   
PWATS BELOW 1 INCH. WINDS BACKING FROM NE TO N THROUGH THE COLUMN               
TODAY WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY NOTED JUST TO OUR                
NORTH TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK                  
MEAGER TODAY AS THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM AND                             
STABILIZE...ESSENTIALLY CAPPING OFF THE ATMOSPHERE.                             
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRIER AIR                 
ADVECTS IN AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS UP PAST 800 MB. BOTH THE LOCAL                
THICKNESS AND DRY ADIABATIC SCHEMES SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER              
90S. BASED ON THE HIGHS WE SAW YESTERDAY AND CONSIDERING WE ARE                 
STARTING THE DAY OFF TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS               
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                              
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW              
THETA-E VALUES...ESPECIALLY AT 700MB...CONTINUING THROUGH THEN.                 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                  
NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEPICTS THIS TROUGH              
FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BISECTING THE STATE...          
WHILE THE NAM FORECASTS THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                 
BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                     
ESSENTIALLY CAPPED. THE CAP IS WEAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...AND                   
MORE NOTICEABLE ON THE GFS WITH A TOUCH OF WARMING ALOFT BETWEEN                
600MB AND 500MB. MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRONG THROUGH                       
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AS                 
THEY BECOME THURSDAY PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. WILL OPT TO               
HAVE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE                
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN BETTER                  
INSTABILITY...A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING MID-LEVEL                   
THETA-E ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BETTER FORECAST 700MB AND 850MB                
UVV ALBEIT WEAK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE MID-LEVEL                   
RIDGE. GIVEN THE SLACK GRADIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED...RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE GFS               
IS DRY WITH ITS QPF THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK THE BEST CHANCE                
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE               
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE ARE HIGHER...AND WHERE SOMETHING               
THAT MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING                  
SOUTH IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH CHANGED                
FROM TUESDAY AND MAINLY 90 TO 95.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE NAM THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACTUALLY SHOWS                  
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
WITH DIMINISHING K INDICES. THE GFS IS ALMOST AS UNIMPRESSIVE                   
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH                  
WEAKENS. BASED ON THIS HAVE DIMINISHED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE                 
DAY. EVENTUALLY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD                  
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...AND                       
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.                          
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT SAT THROUGH MON. THIS                
MAY CAUSE FRONT TO STALL/DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA SAT               
INTO SUN. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED CHANCE                
POP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SAT. BY SUN...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH              
RIDGING NEAR SURFACE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO GO               
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUN INTO MON.                                               
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPS                    
POSSIBLY TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER            
HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE A RETURN TO MUCH               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR            
STILL HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA...WE SHOULD              
BE IN FOR ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND                       
VISIBILITIES. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH THE IFR                     
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND            
WITH LIGHT TO CALM AIR AT THE SURFACE...TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW              
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z-09Z. THESE LOW CIGS/VIS WILL MIX OUT              
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SURFACE                
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. GFS/NAM BUFR            
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY...CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO              
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL                   
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NAM BUFR                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WITH A SATURATED NEAR-SFC LAYER AND 15KT ENE/NE FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER AND              
SREF PROBABILITIES FOR CIGS < 1KFT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE UNDER               
5-10%. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS                
OUT OF THE FAY/RWI TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL               
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.           
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY                 
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING                
MVFR/IFR VIS IN FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS               
(FAY/RWI) THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED               
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WSS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JFB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
LONG TERM...DJF                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
308 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION            
ALONG WITH THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN               
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.                                                               
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO            
INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH              
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND               
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE MOVING                
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ATTM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING             
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH            
ATTM. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST                
NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OF THE RATON MESA ACROSS                        
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH                     
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH                 
1-3MB PRESSURE RISES BEING NOTED ATTM.                                          
TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS CATCHING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE HELPING TO             
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ATTM ALONG WITH                   
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STORMS FIRING ALONG              
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND                  
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ATTM. HAVE KEPT BEST POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR                
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING                 
CAPES BETWEEN 400-1200 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND                
COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH DIME SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUST              
TO AROUND 50 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. MODELS ALSO                   
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN                   
COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR              
CLOUDS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS                  
BY SUNRISE. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UVV AS              
EASTERN UTAH DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE KEPT                 
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.                                   
WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS TO BE A COOL AND STABLE DAY ACROSS MOST                 
OF EASTERN COLORADO AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS KEEPS MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ACROSS THE WEST...ANOTHER MINOR DISTURBANCE            
PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION IN DEVELOPING WEAK NORTHWEST                  
FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS                  
REGION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...SHOULD                 
SEE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT                
SCATTERED POPS INTACT ACROSS THE MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS              
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY TO                 
PRESERVE INTEROFFICE CONSISTENCY...AS BELIEVE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR            
ANY PRECIP. -MW                                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THU THROUGH TUE)                                                               
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS               
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEP AVERAGES.                            
THU THROUGH TUE...ENSEMBLE DATA...INCLUDING ECMWF AND DGEX...HAS A              
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/AZ THROUGH                 
THE PERIOD. THERE ARE HINTS OF MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS                      
DRYING...SO THE MAIN CHANCE FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE OVER THE                        
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. WITH NE-                  
NLY STEERING CURRENTS...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE              
OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO PLAINS.                    
ALSO...A RELATIVE DRY SLOT OVER EXTREME ERN CO SHOULD KEEP                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW OR NIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE              
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12Z/28 MEX MOS                 
HAS PUB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. METZE             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN          
MTS AND FAR SE PLAINS THIS EVENING...AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR             
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. SECONDARY SURGE WILL ALLOW FOR             
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TO CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN                       
COLORADO...INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB...OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO              
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
313 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE               
CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE WED. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM                 
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN WELL                 
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THU. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH                
THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING S OF THE REGION BY                 
SUN. HIGH PRES MOVES BACK IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
WEAK FNTL BNDRY STILL LINGERING OVER MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE                 
CWFA...ALONG AN APPROXIMATE KCHS-KJYL LINE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL                
WOBBLING N AND S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE ALONG WITH WEAK UPR               
LVL STEERING AND DEEP MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR FLOODING RAINS IN FAR                
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS MRNG. MEANWHILE...WELL S OF THE                   
BNDRY SKIES REMAINED PTLY CLDY. AS THE PRECIP DIMINISHED THIS                   
MRNG...STRATIFORM CLOUDS LINGERED THROUGH NOON BUT HAVE SINCE                   
TRANSITIONED INTO PTLY CLDY CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AS HAS BEEN THE                   
DIURNAL TREND. CU CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN THE REST OF THE               
CWFA THIS AFTN...SO WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH               
CONVECTIVE LIFT...SCT SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST              
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST FOCUS WOULD BE FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE              
CWFA WHERE THE ATMOS REMAINS FAIRLY UNTAPPED AND BOTH RUC/M-ETA                 
SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. SEABREEZE IS FINALLY MAKING                    
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE                
ENTIRE CWFA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER                 
AND TREND LOWER GOING N. GREATEST HAZRADS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY                  
FLOODING RAINS AND DOWNBURST WIND SIGNATURES. BY LATE EVE...ONLY                
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.                 
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT FOG FORMATION BUT AM NOT QUITE                      
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND               
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED UNDER THE NIGHTLY INVERSION.                  
WILL LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR WHERE RAIN OCCURS AND DETERMINE ITS                  
INCLUSION THEN. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH MIN TEMPS IN              
THE LOW TO MID 70S.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                              
A TRICKY FCST BEGINS TMRW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF                  
THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE DISSIPATING FNTL BNDRY. BOTH THE NAM               
AND GFS IDENTIFY IT...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERING SOLNS AS TO                   
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL GO BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS IT REMAINING                     
OFFSHORE. FOR SENSIBLE WX IN THIS AREA TMRW AND TMRW NIGHT...THE                
LOW PRES AREA WILL BRING DRIER AIR AROUND IT AND INTO THIS REGION               
ALONG WITH HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE N...THUS LOWERING CHCS FOR              
PRECIP. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS                
OF THE CWFA WHICH WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO DEEP MOISTURE...                     
UNSTABLE AIR...AND LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE DISSIPATING FNTL BNDRY              
ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE. FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LOOK TO                  
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP MENTION. THIS                    
STABLE AIR WILL ENVELOP THE ENTIRE CWFA TMRW NIGHT...THUS A DRY                 
FCST IS IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH                
CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW...PARTICULARLY               
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BUT WILL LOOK FOR TEMPS AROUND THE               
90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN WITH LOW TEMPS TMRW NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID                
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE              
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THU-FRI. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE              
LOW WILL DRAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID-LVL DRY AIR SOUTH FROM NC AND              
THE MID-ATLC INTO THE FCST AREA THU AND PERSIST INTO FRI. THIS WILL             
SEVERELY CURTAIL THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY                
ALONG THE COAST WHERE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE PENETRATION SHOULD OCCUR             
FAIRLY EARLY EACH AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY...                
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD STILL FIRE AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE                
THUS WL GO WITH SLGT CHANCE POPS THU ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS THEN              
LIMIT SLGT POPS TO INTERIOR SE GA FRI AFTN AS A COLD FRONT DROPS                
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO WEDGE IN FROM THE N.                
THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FAR SRN SC LTE FRI MORNING AND                  
SHOULD CLR SE GA AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY SUNRISE SAT BEFORE                   
BECOMING Q-STNRY ACROSS NORTHERN FL SAT NGT-SUN. PCPN CHANCES WILL              
SLOWLY INCR TO MORE SEASONAL LVLS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER            
LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH CAN ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL             
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN                 
THE TIMING HAVE JUST MENTION OF CB AT KCHS AT THIS TIME. MODELS                 
INDICATE THAT KSAV HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER/TSTM                  
THAN KCHS...THUS HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT 21Z. WILL CONTINUE TO                  
MONITOR AND WILL AMEND WHEN RADAR TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.                  
MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP AT BOTH AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AS GOOD LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS                
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG.                                          
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH                 
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND                
PRE-DAWN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM              
THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY GIVING MORE PROLONGED MVFR TO                
IFR CONDS IN RAIN/TSTMS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK SFC FNTL BNDRY WILL WOBBLE OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE                  
MARINE AREA THROUGH TNGT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TMRW...BUT                    
NEARLY NIL PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECTS WILL COME OF IT. THUS... WILL              
LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT FOR TNGT.                      
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS                  
LATE TNGT INTO TMRW AND MEANDER OFF THE COAST THROUGH TMRW NIGHT.               
NOT MANY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ATTM...SO WILL KEEP              
WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT BUT SEAS MAY RISE TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM              
OF SHORE AND TO 4 FT IN THE GA OUTER WATERS TMRW INTO TMRW NIGHT.               
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE NO MARINE CONCERNS THU-               
FRI AS FAIRLY LGT WNDS AND LOW SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE A                
FAIRLY HEALTHY PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NGT-              
SUN AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO WEDGE IN BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD              
FRONT. WL CAP WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS A 3-5 FT FOR NOW...BUT                 
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR PSBL SCA                       
CONDITIONS OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC/77                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
401 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE OVER SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER TROUGH            
STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL                   
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO                
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORHTWEST SHORT OF LAKE            
MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND UNDER THE            
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA                
WILL DEEPEN  AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LOCAL WRF                
MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING FROM                 
SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRACK                   
THROUGH EASTERN U.P. THIS EVENING REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY            
MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE             
FRONT AND FEED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. RUC/LOCAL WRF             
INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 2000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE             
AREA AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS SETS UP IN THAT AREA.                     
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS EVENING FOR MOST            
OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                                         
.LONG TERM (12Z WED THROUGH DAY 7)...                                           
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT DECENT RAIN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL                
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH                
PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THURSDAY              
NIGHT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THOUGH SIMILARLY TO             
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT MIGHT BE COLDER OVER THE GRB CWA WHERE AIR IS             
DRIEST...0.35 PWAT PER 12Z GFS. CONSIDERED PUTTING IN PATCHY FROST              
DURING THIS TIME AS WE COULD REALLY COLD ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER             
COUNTIES...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS COLDER AIR MAY END UP                 
SOUTH OF US ANYWAY.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE OR NEEDED TO               
GOING FCST. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUN/MON TIME FRAME AS            
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS DISCRIBED ABOVE AT              
KSAW ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR               
THE GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND                
WITH ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR            
CIGS AND VSBY AT KSAW. LOW CEILING ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA OF               
DEEP MOISTURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD              
SPREAD OVER KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD                      
DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND                  
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. FOG SHOULD SET IN WITH THE ADDITION OF                    
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EXPECTED AFTERNOON RAINS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST                 
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE A HIGH                
PRES RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN                    
THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS            
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG (SHORT TERM)/PEARSON(LONG TERM)                                
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
144 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN            
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE               
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW ARE OVER NORTH              
DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A             
LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST                   
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA OVER THE             
EASTERN U.P.                                                                    
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS A                  
LITTLE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD                
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BY MID               
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
STRETCHING FROM SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE             
FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE                
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON. RUC INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 1200J/KG ACROSS THE AREA              
AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                      
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DEEP                
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL                
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITIY WILL BE OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS DISCRIBED ABOVE AT              
KSAW ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR               
THE GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND                
WITH ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR            
CIGS AND VSBY AT KSAW. LOW CEILING ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA OF               
DEEP MOISTURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD              
SPREAD OVER KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD                      
DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND                  
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. FOG SHOULD SET IN WITH THE ADDITION OF                    
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EXPECTED AFTERNOON RAINS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TUE NIGHT - FRI)... KEY CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM               
WILL BE THE DISSIPATION OF A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM               
NEAR STEELE...NORTH DAKOTA TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS IN MINNESOTA.               
THESE SHOWERS ARE WELL REPRESENTED BY THE RUC80 H700 DEFORMATION                
FIELD...WHICH IS SHOWING ABOUT A 10 TO 12 UNIT BAND OF DEFORMATION              
ALONG THE AREA OF SHOWERS. THE RUC40 IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG              
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE H700 LEVEL ALONG THIS BAND. BOTH                   
FIELDS SHOW THE FORCING BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AROUND 21Z...AND                 
NEARLY GONE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE               
CWA TIL 03Z TO COVER ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT. ATTM NO              
MENTION OF FOG FOR THE WESTERN CWA AS DRIER AIR SHOULD COME IN ON               
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                                             
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES                
IN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE THE BIGGEST TEMP CHALLENGE AS THE                 
NORTHWEST DID NOT HEAT UP A LOT TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                       
THUS...WENT 4 TO 5 DEG BELOW PREV FORECAST AND MAV GUIDANCE IN THE              
NORTHWEST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ELSEWHERE.                                      
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WENT PREDOMINANTLY WITH MAV GUIDANCE            
FOR MAX TEMPS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR THURSDAY                
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK UP INTO THE                 
80S. THE 12Z NAM DID SHOW A DRY TROUGH COME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA                 
THU AFTERNOON. GFS KEPT SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS I WENT WITH THE GFS               
SOLUTION AS IT BETTER REPRESENTED CONTINUITY. EXPECT TO KEEP THE                
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID 80 TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD                
AGREEMENT...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES.  500MB RIDGE SHIFTS E ON             
SAT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
CROSSING THROUGH N PLAINS...SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO KEPT POPS IN                
FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...HIGH                    
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN              
THE ROCKIES...READY TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE            
N PLAINS ON MON INTO TUE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...EXPECT TO REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH AREA EARLY               
THIS EVENING WITH NO REDUCTION IN VSBYS OR CIGS BELOW VFR. SC DECK              
SHOULD START TO FALL APART AROUND SUNSET...WITH SKC PREDOMINATING               
UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN COULD POP SOME CU. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL                
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/NG                                                                     
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST EMPHASIS ON PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT INTO            
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOW                   
PERSISTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NE/SD BORDER.  SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING                
STEADILY NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 30KTS ALL DAY.  SHORT WAVE FARTHER NORTH            
THAN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING...EVEN THE LATEST              
RUC GUIDANCE.  EXPECT WAVE TO TAKE A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE EAST               
DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDING INTO                
NORTHWEST CONUS.  OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO                  
ENCOUNTER VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MLCAPE OVER              
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN CURRENTLY AT 3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN AS               
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  SOME OF THE CONVECTION             
MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS ENHANCED FORCING FROM S/W PUSHES ACROSS SRN MN             
TWD WI LATER THIS EVE.  HOWEVER CURRENTLY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND             
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT CONDUCIVE TO SVR OVR MOST OF SRN WI...AND WITH             
LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT SVR THREAT TO                    
DECREASE IN OUR WESTERN CWA.  WL STILL CARRY LKLY WORDING ACROSS THE            
WEST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ALONG AND NORTH              
OF WEAK BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MOIST AIR MASS.  FORCING DROPS OFF ON               
WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO             
SPILL ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER BOTH NAM AND GFS SLOW EXIT OF                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.  SECOND WAVE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT              
305 THETA AND WEAK FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS SO WL CONT MID LEVEL POPS            
MOST LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.  WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LINGERING              
WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING A FEW                   
SHOWERS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT DUE TO LACK OF                       
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS CONTINUED DRY WORDING AT THIS POINT.                  
WITH DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY              
FOG TO FORM...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG            
AT BAY.  INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN                   
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS             
OCCURRING FROM 12 TO 18Z.                                                       
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE OVER THE CONTROLS                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNNY TO               
P/C SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  MAY DROP INTO THE 40S SOME             
LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                       
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXTENDED            
GUIDANCE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BROADSCALE RIDGING ACROSS SRN WI               
AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  RIDGING BEGINS              
TO COLLAPSE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES              
BEGINS TO SAG INTO AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAKENING FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z/03 THAT ESSENTIALLY WASHES            
OUT.  WL REMOVE SML POPS SUN NGT AND LOWER TO POPS TO SCHC IN                   
NORTHEAST AREAS FOR MON.  MEDIUM RANGE PERCENT OF MEASUREABLE                   
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUN NGT...AND INCREASES              
TO LOW CHANCES ON MONDAY.  EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO                     
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.  DUE TO WEAK                  
FORCING AND MINIMAL COLUMN MOISTURE AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY AS TO                
FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING...WL LEAVE DRY WORDING IN FOR MON NGT               
AND TUE.  WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
GFS 5 DAY 500HPA MEANS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD HEIGHTS REMAINING 25 TO              
75 METERS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW              
TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF INCREASED                
RIDGING IN NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.  HWVR STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHER                  
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST LATER NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FNTL BNDRY WL SAG THRU SRN WI TNGT...THEN SAG INTO NRN              
IL WED MRNG. SCT TSTMS XPCTD ALNG AND POST FNTL INTO WED MRNG...THEN            
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF DAY. LK FOR VFR CONDS TIL ARND 04Z...WITH SCT             
TSTMS DVLPG ACRS NRN SCTNS SRN WI BY ARND 01Z. CONDS BCMG MVFR CIGS             
AND VSBYS AS TSTMS DVLOP...THEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS SFC WNDS TURN NLY             
BHND FNT. THESE CONDS WL CONT THRU 16Z WED THEN GRAD IMPRV TO VFR IN            
SCT SHRA AFT 16Z.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MBK/MK                                                                          
</pre> wi