AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
322 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
...MAIN CONCERN IS COLD TEMPERATURES...                                         
RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION. BOUNDARY MADE             
IT WELL INTO NM AND TX...BUT RATON NM HAD STRONG W WINDS AND WARM               
TEMPS ALL DAY INDICATING BOUNDARY WAS NOT ALL THAT DEEP.                        
ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH KTAD HAD E WINDS ALL DAY...TEMPS STILL                  
MANAGED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...I WAS EXPECTING A                
WEAK WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE SFC OVER THE PALMER DVD                    
TODAY...AND LOOKING AT SAT PIX IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS DEVELOPING JUST N            
OF THE CWA AS CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ARE NOTED OVER EC CO. ALSO             
OF NOTE...WE HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE MONARCH AWOS WINDS ARE             
READING TOO HIGH. IT IS INDEED WINDY ACROSS THE CONTDVD...BUT I DO              
NOT BELIEVE THE WINDS ARE OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH.                    
TONIGHT...IT IS GOING TO GET COLD TONIGHT BUT NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER            
EXPECTED. NEARLY ALL...IF NOT ALL...OF THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN                 
ABOVE ZERO F. VALLEYS WILL GET QUITE COLD AS TEMPS SHOULD GET TO                
-10F TO 0F. MOST NOTABLY...WARMER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) TEMPS AT 700            
MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND TEMPS AT HIGHER MTN TOP            
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.                   
ANOTHER CONCERN I HAVE IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN UP ACROSS THE S               
FACING SLOPES OF THE PALMER DVD TONIGHT. FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN S              
IN THE LLVS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW. RUC (THROUGH            
AT LEAST 12H) KEEPS IT QUITE DRY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE 12Z NAM                 
SATURATES THE LLVLS AND BRINGS CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. LATEST 18Z               
ALSO HAS SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP                
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE GREATER KCOS REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO              
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO AVIATION                  
(BELOW). AS FOR THE MTNS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY                          
DECREASE...AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FOR THIS              
REASON...I HAVE CANCELED THE WSW FOR THE C MTNS (NOTE THAT A NEW WSW            
HAS GONE INTO AFFECT WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY DAY INTO                    
TUESDAY...SEE EXTENDED FARTHER BELOW).                                          
TOMORROW...A 2NDRY WEAK SURGE WILL MOVE IN EARLY TOMORROW...BUT THIS            
SURGE WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL IMPACT ON OUR WX. IT IS STILL            
GOING TO BE COLD TOMORROW...BUT I HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS QUITE A FEW              
DEGREES FROM THE GRIDS THAT I INHERITED. TEMPS TOMORROW ON THE                  
PLAINS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY. TEMPS IN THE MTNS SHOULD BE            
NOTICEABLY WARMER AND THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND. HODANISH                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
A BRIEF REPRIEVE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE                     
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE                
NORTHWEST US.  BOTH NAM/GFS RAMP UP SNOW ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD              
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  LAPSE RATES NOT            
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA ALOFT.  HOWEVER...OROGRAPHIC           
FLOW AND SOME WEAK JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT            
SNOW FOR THESE AREAS.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                      
BETTER DYNAMICS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE IN ON MONDAY AS 120+KT             
UPPER JET AXIS MOVES ACROSS SRN CO.  BOTH NAM/GFS PRINT OUT UP TO 1             
TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND            
SAWATCH RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL             
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS WHERE SWRLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE               
BEST OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT.  LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP ON TUES             
AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  GFS INDICATES A               
BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOW ON TUES WHILE NAM CONTINUES TO HAMMER THE            
WRN MTS WITH SNOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE DAY.  GIVEN              
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE            
A WATCH FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR THE HIGHER               
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS.  LA GARITAS AND             
THE MOSQUITO RANGES DO NOT DO AS WELL WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY                
FLOW...AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO REMAIN AROUND 5-10 INCHES OVER THE 36              
HR PERIOD. IF LATER RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS                              
POTENTIAL...EXPECT THAT THESE AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WINTER                
WEATHER ADVISORY AT SOME POINT BUT GIVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE BELOW THE            
24+ HR WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS              
POINT.  MEANWHILE...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS              
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH TRAVEL               
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN.                                            
TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS WELL.  BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING            
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE             
NEXT TROF.  THUS EXPECT THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS TO ERODE SUN                 
NIGHT ALONG THE SRN AREAS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO DEEP                  
MIXING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY.  HAVE WARMED UP MAXT GRID                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  FRONT SURGES BACK IN ON TUES.  NAM CONTINUES TO             
PLACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY 21Z TUES. HAVE KEPT             
TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH LOCATION OF                
FRONT AND TIMING WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE.  BOTH NAM/GFS BREAK              
OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUES            
AIDED BY SOME DYNAMICS AS NEXT TROF SWINGS THROUGH IN THE                       
AFTN/EVENING ALONG WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS               
TO HIGH SCT FOR THIS AREA WITH 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM. ITS                         
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE PALMER DVD MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IF THE TIMING              
OF THE TROF STAYS CONSISTENT.                                                   
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER             
TROF MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF             
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS.  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURS            
WILL PRODUCE LEE TROFING AND ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE PLAIN CHRISTMAS            
DAY.  GFS IS NOW MORE AMPLIFIED WITH NEXT DIGGING TROF WHICH DROPS              
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY THEN MOVES ACROSS CO FRI NIGHT/SAT.              
COULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS FRI NIGHT/EARLY               
SAT AS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD.  UPPER LOW NEARLY CLOSES OFF AND H7               
WINDS GO AROUND FROM THE NE SUGGESTING A TROWAL ACROSS NE CO.  ECMWF            
IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED SUGGESTING A DRIER SOLN FOR THE                    
PLAINS.  THIS FAR OUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS. BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS AND              
DROP TEMPS FOR THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME PERIOD. -KT                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ONLY CONCERN IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN UP AT KCOS TONIGHT. I                   
BELIEVE KALS AND KPUB SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...KCOS WILL CONTINUE WITH S LLVL FLOW THROUGH THE             
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LOW STRATUS            
DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE COLD            
AIR IS RATHER SHALLOW AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR                
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...GIVE THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE MODIFIED ARCTIC              
AIR MASS...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A LOW CIG IN THE TAF FOR KCOS.                
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY MID DAY TOMORROW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR COZ060-068.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
1025 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOTS OF CONFLICTING INFO WITH GUIDANCE LATE THIS MORNING. RUC                   
WANTS TO SHALLOW OUT THIS AIRMASS WHILE NAM BREAKS OUT SNOW ACROSS              
GREATER COS AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS MAY BE                    
CORRECT...BUT IN CERTAIN AREAS. RUC MAY BE CORRECT IN THE                       
SHALLOWNESS OF THE AIRMASS DOWN SOUTH AS RATON HAS BROKEN OUT WITH              
GUST FROM THE W AT 45 KT...WHILE LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE                 
USAFA N OF KCOS. ALSO...KPUB IS GUSTING FROM THE EAST WHICH TELLS               
ME IT IS NOT TOO SHALLOW.                                                       
I SHOULD ALSO ADD THAT THE NAM BRINGS IN A 2NDRY SHOT OF COLD AIR               
AROUND 12Z TOMORROW.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THIS IS MAINLY FOR KCOS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOTS OF CONFLICTING              
DATA IN THIS MORNINGS SIMULATIONS. RUC HAS W WINDS AT KCOS LATER                
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE NAM BREAKS OUT UPSLOPE SNOW. FOR NOW...GIVEN               
WHAT IS GOING ON IN CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS                 
NAM DATA WITH ITS CLOUDIER COLDER SOLUTION.                                     
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES ARE SUCH A JOY TO WORK...AUGGG!                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-               
060.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34 HODANISH                                                                     
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
436 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
WINDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY. AN UPR LOW WL                
MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND TODAY AND THEN INTO                
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WL KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT OVR THE              
AREA AND UPR LIFT OVR THE AREA TODAY...WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST              
TONIGHT.  A FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU THE SERN PLAINS            
THIS MORNING...AT THIS TIME IT HAS MADE IT THRU KSPD...AND IS                   
BACKING INTO LAS ANIMAS COUNTY TOWARD TRINIDAD.  THE COLD AIR BEHIND            
THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS TO                 
AROUND 20 OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  STRONG UPR JET (120-160KT) HAS              
BEEN SITTING OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THIS WL SHIFT EWRD THIS            
MORNING...BUT A NWRLY JET (120KT) WL MOVE OVR THE AREA THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  THE NAM AND GFS WINDS OVR THE HYR TRRN ARE NOT STRONG               
ENOUGH FOR TODAY...THE RUC WINDS LOOKED BEST OVR THE HYR TRRN SO WL             
USE THAT IN THE GRIDS. THE KMYP SENSOR HAS BEEN THIS MORNING HAS                
BEEN INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 50-65 KT RANGE WHICH HAD ME              
WORRIED ABOUT CONDITIONS ON MONARCH PASS.  AFTER TALKING WITH STATE             
PATROL...THEY HAD INFO INDICATING THAT THERE IS A LOT OF BLOWING                
SNOW OVR THE PASS BUT THAT THE VSBY IS NOT THAT BAD.  HAVE DECIDED              
TO JUST STICK WITH THE ADVISORY WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN PLACE AND PLAY             
UP THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW A LITTLE MORE.  MODELS STILL DO            
NOT SHOW ALL THAT MUCH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION OVR THE CENTRAL MTS.               
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NR THE SERN MTS WL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS FOR             
TODAY...MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING IN THESE AREAS. HAVE              
KEPT THESE AREAS WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE SERN PLAINS. IN                    
ADDITION TO THE SNOW OVR THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS...THE GFS SHOWS SOME            
PCPN OVR TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTY THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN               
SEEING SOME ECHOES ON RADAR OVR THESE AREAS AS WELL.  THE MODELS                
REALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH MSTR OVR THE SERN PLAINS TODAY OR THIS                  
EVENING...BUT WL STICK WITH THE ISOLD POPS.  TONIGHT THE UPR                    
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WL STILL BE SOME               
ISOLD CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DVD...BUT THE REST OF              
THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD.                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY-FRIDAY)                                                                 
LONG TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG            
AND WEST OF CONTINENTAL DVD ALONG WITH WINDS AND ROLLER COASTER                 
TEMPERATURES AS FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ROLL ACROSS THE REGION              
THROUGH THE WEEK.                                                               
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY               
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM                
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN               
REGION. WITH A COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG INVERSIONS IN PLACE ALONG                
WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE ACROSS THE PLAINS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO               
BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE                 
TEENS AND 20S ON SUNDAY. WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT              
SYSTEM TO MAKE FOR TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT                  
COOLEST TEMPS IN NORMAL COLD POCKETS ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER            
VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS. POPS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF             
WITH SLIGHT POPS REMAINING ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE BEING RUNG OUT. TEMPS ON               
MONDAY REMAIN TRICKY WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWLY RETREATING                        
EASTWARD...AND HAVE HAVE KEPT THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE LOWER                 
EASTERN SLOPES WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. POPS BEGIN TO RAMP               
UP AGAIN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DVD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH                 
MOISTURE INCREASING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH SNOWFALL                   
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH UPPER SUPPORT BACK              
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE A 120+ KT JET                
CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
COLORADO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY                 
NIGHT. WITH GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND UVV AHEAD OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE               
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS                 
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ONE                
TO TWO FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCALES. AS THE JET CORE                
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SEE WINDY TO VERY WINDY                        
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER EASTERN               
SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST MTS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD MONDAY NIGHT                
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS                     
TUESDAY MORNING OWNING TO KEEPING CURRENT SLIGHT POPS IN TACT                   
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY BELOW CURRENT                   
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST            
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE SYSTEMS DIG                
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH                  
THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY               
AND SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF                   
SNOWFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DVD WITH MAINLY DRY AND              
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH CHRISTMAS            
DAY WITH ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE               
PLAINS FRIDAY. -MW                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTS                  
TODAY.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE                
COULD BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY                
THRU EARLY EVENING.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-               
060.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
28/23                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1225 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE FIRST SNOWSTORM IS WELL OFFSHORE...THE SECOND ONE WILL BE                   
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND QUICKLY TRACK                   
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS                  
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS STORM                 
WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BRING WINDY                 
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH THE START OF THE                
HOLIDAY WEEK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                             
IT SEEMS WE ARE SEEING A COMBINATION OF A MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE             
AND RESIDUAL SURFACE TROUGHING.  RUC13 IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB                
WITH SHOWING THIS CONVERENT FIELD AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VALLEY.             
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE POPS AND SNOWFALL               
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AT THIS TIME...                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
THE FIRST STORM WAS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH               
RESIDUAL DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE DACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA               
REGION AND SOUTHERN VT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. IN ITS WAKE...AMPLE                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A MAINLY                
CLOUDY DAY. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES LOWER THROUGH THE DAY YET                 
WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER LIGHT WHICH WOULD REDUCE MECHANICAL                   
MIXING OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...WILL RETAIN THE SILVER               
SKY FORECAST. WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AND FRESH SNOWPACK...WILL                 
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND CLOSER TO THOSE VALUES WITHIN THE LAV                 
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC OOZES SOUTHWARD THIS                     
EVENING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES IN OVERHEAD. A TRANQUIL                 
EVENING WITH PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST...BUT THIS WILL BE                  
SHORT LIVED. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RATHER                   
QUICKLY AS SOUTHEAST CONUS STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. LATEST                   
ECMWF/NAM/GEM SUGGEST DRIER AIR WILL HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF SNOW                 
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC IDEA OF A                   
SLOWER SYSTEM ARRIVAL AND ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF CPD/S                          
/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/.                                               
SINCE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTIAL                              
CLEARING...LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY...AND THIS FRESH                     
SNOWCOVER...WILL SHADE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NAM-MOS GUIDANCE.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...                     
H2O VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS THE PLAYERS THIS MORNING. STILL                    
EVIDENT THIS MORNING IS A LONG TRAIL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH                  
ORIGINS FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC COINCIDING WITH                    
>150KT 300MB JET. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIVE SOUTHWARD                  
ACROSS THE BIG SKY COUNTRY OF MONTANA WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENT                 
FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SURFACE                  
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK WHICH              
WILL LEAD TO OUR STORM EVENT ON SUNDAY.                                         
NCEP MODEL SUITE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE REMARKABLE                      
AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVENT BUT THEY DO DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND                   
THERMAL PROFILES. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSVERSE THE                   
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                    
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE TENNESSEE              
RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THE APPALACHIANS...THIS SURFACE LOW WILL                   
QUICKLY REDEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND OUR NOREASTER               
WILL TAKE SHAPE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RATHER                       
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN UNFOLDS AS 850MB SOUTHEAST                    
WINDS INCREASE TOWARD 50KTS /OR GREATER/ WITH INITIAL MOISTURE                  
FROM THE PACIFIC AND NOW THE ATLANTIC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.                 
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 290K SURFACE REVEALS A VERY IMPRESSIVE               
UPGLIDE/LIFT WITH 3-4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES. GARCIA METHOD                   
WOULD SPELL AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW BUT WHEN COINCIDING WITH                
HIGH OMEGA VALUES INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH...COULD                 
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR SUNDAY MORNING!                
JUST LIKE ITS STORM PREDECESSOR...THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE A FAST               
MOVER WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED FOR 6-9 HOURS. THICKNESS                 
SCHEMES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WARMER IDEA OF SLEET/FZRA FOR                   
PORTIONS OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS...LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WHICH WOULD                 
LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT.                                          
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND              
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND NEARLY BOMB OUT OVER THE                   
STATE OF MAINE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY SLOT TO MOVE NORTHWARD                  
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND PORTIONS OF                
THE BERKS WITH A PERIOD OF LITTLE PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT. THE                      
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS                    
NORTHWARD. OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY WHICH                 
COULD PROLONG THE SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW/ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SUB-TEEN 850MB TEMPS                
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND FLOW IS NEARLY WESTERLY.                           
LASTLY..UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN VT COULD                  
PROLONG THE EVENT LONGER AS WELL. WE WILL EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH              
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SCENARIOS.                  
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF CONSIDERABLE BLOWING               
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD AROUND                 
THIS NOREASTER /PERHAPS NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/. FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN MID 40 KTS                  
WINDS WHICH WOULD SATISFY THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES.                     
ALSO...NOT TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...WITH FORECAST TEMPS DOWN INTO                
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HEADLINES                 
BECOME A CONCERN AS WELL. PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING ALL OF THESE                     
POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
ON MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN              
PARTS OF THE CWA. A NW FLOW /PROB ABOUT 290-300 DEGREES/ WILL ALLOW             
FOR MULTI-BAND TYPE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD FUNNEL                
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS               
OR FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BEFORE HIGH                   
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH HELPS TO LOWER THE               
INVERSION HEIGHT AND SQUELCH THE LAKE EFFECT. THE OTHER FEATURE                 
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLD. WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS            
THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON...HOOSIC...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS ALONG               
WITH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. ACROSS THE                     
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...TACONICS...GREEN MOUNTAINS...BERKSHIRES               
AND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE AND                   
TERRAIN ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT RADIATION.                    
850 HPA TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -16 TO -20 DEGREES C AT 18Z MONDAY                  
AND ACTUALLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN -8 TO -16 BY 12Z TUESDAY.                         
MEANWHILE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE                  
REGION BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                   
AS THE 500 HPA TROF ROTATES EAST. THE HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST                  
TUESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS THE                   
LOW ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE LEADING                   
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                       
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS                        
FEATURE SHIFTS EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF OF 50 TO 70 KTS                     
AT 850 HPA WHICH TAPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND                    
BRINGS SOME OF IT INTO THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING                    
WITH THE FORECAST DEWPOINT IN THE LOW LEVELS AT ALBANY                          
INCREASING FROM MINUS 20 TUESDAY EVENING TO PLUS 6 BY                           
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL WRING                         
OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF                      
THE PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT WILL COME AS RAIN RATHER THAN                        
SNOW...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT                     
SNOW LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS.                    
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT                       
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONING AND                     
SHAPE OF THE SURFACE LOW.  NORMALLY RAIN AROUND THIS TIME OF                    
THE YEAR WOULD SPELL A FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS REASON                    
TO BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE REGION THE SNOW                       
PACK WILL BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH TO JUST SOAK UP THE RAIN...                   
ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON ROADS AND PARKING                       
AREAS WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN PLOWED OFF THE PAVEMENT AND PILES                     
OF SNOW BLOCKING DRAINAGE FEATURES IS LIKELY TO MAKE THE                        
FLOODING WORSE.                                                                 
NOW FOR EVERYBODY/S QUESTION...WHAT WILL CHRISTMAS DAY BE                       
LIKE? IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY                       
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN                      
THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH JUST MIGHT PUT A FRESH FROSTING ON                      
THE GROUND. AFTER WEDNESDAY/S BALMY TEMPERATURES THE HIGHS                      
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER                       
30S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE NIPPY AS THE HIGH MOVES                       
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO UP NORTH TO NEAR 20                       
SOUTH.                                                                          
FOR BOXING DAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE                              
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPREAD WARM AIR UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST                     
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS LIKELY                    
TO BE SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND A MIX TO                       
THE SOUTH AND EAST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION STILL RESULTING IN LINGERING -SN              
ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL-KALB-KPOU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.               
BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...-SN WILL CONTINUE WITH ASSOC                  
MVFR/IFR PERSISTING INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR                   
ESPECIALLY AT KALB WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. AFTER             
THE -SN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WE WILL STILL BE LEFT WITH                    
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THEN AS            
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION                       
APPROACHES...SNOW WILL REDEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 09Z-12Z            
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING QUICKLY TO IFR THEN LIFR.              
SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO RAIN AT KPOU FROM ABOUT               
15Z-18Z...BUT REMAIN ALL SNOW AT KGFL/KALB. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE             
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE               
EAST AROUND 5-10 KT SUNDAY MORNING.                                             
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SUN PM...MVFR/IFR...SN AT KGFL/KALB...RASN AT KPOU.                             
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR...ISOLD/SCT -SHSN. WINDY.                              
TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
WED...MVFR/IFR...CHC SN/PL/FZRA/RA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.                                 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH             
TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOW AGAIN AND LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE AREA                 
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY.                                     
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT...IF               
TEMPORARY...WARMUP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET               
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND BRINGS A FLOW OF MUCH WARMER               
AND MOISTER AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO                 
VALLEYS INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE                
TEENS TO THE MID FORTIES IN THE ALBANY AREA...AND EVEN WARMER                   
FARTHER SOUTH...WITH RAIN AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRUNS THE COOLER                 
AIR OVER THE REGION...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING ABOUT AN INCH OF                   
PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SNOW SHOULD BE DEEP AND                
COLD ENOUGH TO SOAK UP MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE RAIN...WHERE IT IS            
NOT PLOWED OR SHOVELED OFF. HOWEVER THERE IS DEFINITELY A POTENTIAL             
FOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND PARKING AREAS...WHERE PILES OF PLOWED SNOW            
MAY MAKE THE FLOODING WORSE BY BLOCKING DRAIN GRATES. AND IT LOOKS              
LIKE ANOTHER RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY.                     
IF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS IS IN A FLOOD AREA...OR CLOSE TO A RIVER               
OR STREAM...WE SUGGEST YOU CHECK UP ON THE WEATHER DURING THIS                  
HOLIDAY WEEK. A WARM SPELL FOLLOWED BY HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN               
FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. NONE IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...                
BUT CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE.                                                    
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING                
     FOR CTZ001-013.                                                            
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING                
     FOR NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066.                                        
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING                
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084.                                    
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING                
     FOR MAZ001-025.                                                            
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING                
     FOR VTZ013>015.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...RCK                                                                 
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
650 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE                
REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS STORM QUICKLY DEPARTS TO OUR               
EAST LEAVING BEHIND TRANQUIL YET MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE               
START OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY               
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REGION.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...                                        
MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                             
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE UPSTREAM WITH THE DUAL JET STRUCTURE             
BEING OBSERVED AND RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS DUE THIS                          
DIVERGENCE...PEAK CLOUD TOP TEMP WAS -66C!  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO                  
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE BAND/S/ EXTENDING ALONG THE MI/OH BORDER TOWARD             
THE KPIT VICINITY WHERE SLEET WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF DTW TO                 
CLE-CAK.  LINING UP 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE RUC AND 06Z RUNS            
OF THE GFS/NAM ALL SUGGEST THE 543DM LINE SEEMS TO BE THE                       
THRESHOLD.  FOLLOWING THIS LINE WOULD SUGGEST THE                               
ULSTER-DUTCHESS-LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WILL MIX WITH SLEET THIS                    
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL TIMING SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN 10AM-NOON            
FOR WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND BETWEEN NOON-2PM FOR               
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.  CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS STILL LOOK                    
RESPECTABLE AND STILL CAN NOT RULE OUR THUNDER NOR SNOWFALL RATES OF            
1-3 INCHES PER HOUR.                                                            
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                          
THIS NEAR TERM IS THAT PERCEIVED CALM BEFORE THE STORM. PER THE                 
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT /11U-3.9U IMAGERY/...STRATUS CONTINUES TO                 
SLIDE SOUTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE DACKS               
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE REPLACED/COMBINED                 
WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM STORM MOISTURE WITH THICKENING AND                    
LOWERING OF THE CLOUD BASE. BASED ON THE HOURLY RUC AND HIRES                   
EXPERIMENTAL RUC /HRRR/...IT SEEMS THE MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE                
PROBLEM FREE WITH RESPECT TO WEATHER AS THE SNOW SHOULD APPROACH                
THE CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 15Z /IE 10 AM               
EST/. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS NEAR                  
TERM AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND MINIMAL INSOLATION.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                       
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...                         
PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/OBSERVATIONS...AN                 
IMPRESSIVE WAVE WITH EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND TROPICAL                   
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS                  
THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING. FIRST...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY               
REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE PER THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK FROM THE               
I80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                       
SECOND...WIND PROFILERS ACROSS THE PLAINS REVEAL 100+KT AT 500MB                
WITH GREATER THAN 50KTS AT 850MB FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE STATE OF              
ILLINOIS WITH AN DEPARTING...YET INCREASING...JET NORTH OF THE                  
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP A                     
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PA/NY                
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIRD...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT UPSTREAM WITH              
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HENCE THOSE LIGHTNING                          
STRIKES...AND LIKELY MORE OCCURRING FROM CLOUD TO CLOUD.                        
LASTLY...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS....THIS STORM IS                   
MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE EAST- NORTHEAST THAN EAST AS TROUGH AXIS                   
ACROSS QUEBEC CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD TREND              
THE HIGHER QPF FURTHER NORTH AND A MIXTURE OF SLEET FOR THE                     
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.                        
AS FOR SPECIFICS...GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND CROSS SECTIONS                
FROM NCEP MODEL SUITE SHOW IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS THIS AFTERNOON              
WITH DEEP NEGATIVE EPV...THIS ALL SUGGESTS THE STRONG                           
FRONTOGENESIS BENEATH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID-LAYERS WILL                    
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA                
INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS               
TIME. IN ADDITION...THOSE CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL THE MAX LIFT WILL               
BE OCCURRING WITHIN THE BEST DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH REGION SO DO                  
EXPECT IMPRESSIVE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES WHICH COULD APPROACH UP TO              
3 INCHES PER HOUR AS SUGGESTED BY THE COBB TECHNIQUE /SLIGHTLY                  
HIGHER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. HEAVY               
SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN THE              
CWA.                                                                            
WITH THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH TRACK EXPECTED...THIS WILL HAVE                   
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS              
EXPECTED HERE...EXPECTING SNOWFALLS BETWEEN THAT 6 AND 10 RANGE.                
SO WE WILL EXPAND THE WARNING FURTHER NORTH.                                    
WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM...ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY                    
DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND                   
VERY MOIST PROFILES BELOW THE 600-700MB AND AMPLE MECHANICAL                    
MIXING AND SHEAR WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW                 
GOING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR CLOSELY               
AS WE MIGHT LOSE ICE NUCLEI POTENTIAL WHICH WOULD PROVIDE FREEZING              
DRIZZLE.                                                                        
EVENTUALLY...RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE OOZES SOUTHWARD FROM                     
ONTARIO AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT DURING SATURDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY.             
STILL...AMPLE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE                 
INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE A                 
FLURRY OR TWO AROUND THE REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS              
AT THIS TIME FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.                                                
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH SPC/HPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS THIS                  
MORNING...THANK YOU.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
THE STORMS GO MARCHING ON...                                                    
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS COULD IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN LATE                    
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THE                   
FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                    
A 500 HPA TROF ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MOVING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                 
SATURDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING...TO THE                
CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES                 
AND MOVES TO NEAR CAPE COD BY SUNDAY EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT THE                  
LIKELY POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPGRADED THE POPS FROM                  
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN DROPPING                 
THEM OFF SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE                  
SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL HANG ON. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME                
MIXING IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD                   
COUNTY CT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY...THE P-TYPE OF THIS                  
STORM WILL BE ALL SNOW. WE HAVE BEEN A BIT CONSERVATIVE ON THE                  
FLUFF FACTOR WITH RATIOS MOSTLY AROUND 10 TO 1 FOR THE BULK OF                  
THE PRECIP...WITH THE LIQUID PRECIP FROM AROUND 0.5 INCH IN THE                 
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO JUST UNDER 0.9 INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...                  
AND SNOW TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. SOME OF THESE AMOUNTS ARE                    
LIKELY TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TERRAIN BECOMES A                     
FACTOR.  ON MONDAY THAT STORM RAPIDLY LIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES                  
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC                    
STATES.  ON TUESDAY THAT HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TO                   
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW WHICH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN                        
ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY                          
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN TO OVER LONG ISLAND BY CHRISTMAS                       
MORNING AND OUT TO SEA BY THE EVENING OF CHRISTMAS DAY. THE                     
LATEST GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN HPC WHICH RUSHES THE LOW                        
CENTER TO THE MARITIMES BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. FOR THE MOST                      
PART HAVE POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH THE EVENING GMOS GUIDANCE.                   
ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE HIGHS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY                      
WILL BE IN THE 30S...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW                       
SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VARIED EARLY THIS                    
MORNING WITH AN MVFR CEILING AT KDDH...MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO                   
RADIATION FOG AT KPOU...AND VFR AT THE REST OF THE METAR SITES.                 
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER               
THIS MORNING TO IFR AND THEN LIFR AS SNOW SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST                
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY                
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE SNOW SHOULD COME                 
IN RATHER QUICKLY...SO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GO FROM VFR/MVFR                
TO IFR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SNOW WILL THEN FALL HEAVILY AT                
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFR LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS                   
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL                
OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM MOVES ON WITH THE SNOW                    
LIGHTENING UP AND CLOUD BASES RISING SLIGHTLY.                                  
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TONIGHT...IFR/MVFR. SN TAPERING TO -SHSN.                                       
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                           
SUN...IFR...CIG...LKLY SN/PL/FZRA/RA.                                           
MON...VFR..CHC -SHSN.                                                           
TUE...VFR.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.                          
WITH MAINLY FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN DURING             
THE DAYTIME PERIODS...EXPECT STREAMS AND RIVERS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO             
NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS AND FLOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS                 
RUNOFF DECREASES. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST AT OR BELOW FREEZING               
COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS ON THE RIVERS               
ESPECIALLY IN COLDER REGIONS.                                                   
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                    
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.                                                   
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                    
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-                   
     082>084.                                                                   
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                    
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.                                                   
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                    
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...RCK                                                                 
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
900 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ENDING STRETCH OF                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...                                                    
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL                  
WATERS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...               
.UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR/500 MB RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                      
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH A                
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE N/CNTRL STATES ANCHORED BY A UPPER LOW OVER THE            
DAKOTAS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE TRANSLATING EASTWARD AROUND THE              
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.               
FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS               
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN. THE 00Z REGIONAL SURFACE            
ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR CWFA SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS              
TO THE SOUTH AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WAS                
GETTING ORGANIZED ALONG THIS FRONT OVER WESTERN KY WITH THE TRAILING            
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TX. REGIONAL                    
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND PCPN            
IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. METAR REPORTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE                
COAST INDICATE AREAS OF SEA FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM FROM COASTAL             
WALTON COUNTY WESTWARD. HIGHEST SREF PROBS FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBYS              
(50 PCT OR GREATER) ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE               
AND I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN FL. FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE MORE             
PATCHY AND NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS (SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION             
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). TIMING OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL            
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT                
APPROACHES. DO NOT FORESEE ANY REASONS TO JUSTIFY CHANGING THE GRIDS            
OR AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST ATTM.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL LOWER TO               
MVFR BY OR BEFORE 06Z. KTLH AND KVLD COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR                  
CONDITIONS BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT                
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUNDAY.            
NO TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE.                
CIGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER FROPA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF              
THE N-NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20 KT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A              
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED                
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                       
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD                 
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS SUNDAY MORNING AND            
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND              
NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATER SUNDAY AND                  
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES TO              
OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD VEERING OUR WINDS AROUND              
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECT TO REMAIN TIGHT               
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN MUCH DRIER           
AIR WILL CAUSE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY REGION-WIDE.             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS STILL EXPERIENCING HIGH FLOW/LEVELS FROM THE                
HEAVY RAINFALL ON DEC 10-11 ARE THE OCHLOCKONEE...THE APALACHICOLA              
...AND THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE. ALONG THE OCHLOCKNEE RIVER...LEVELS                  
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL NORTH OF THE LAKE TALQUIN DAM. THE HAVANA               
AND THOMASVILLE GAUGES REMAIN AT ACTION STAGE...WITH CONCORD FALLING            
BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS EVENING. ALONG THE APALACHICOLA                    
RIVER...THE BLOUNTSTOWN GAUGE IS DECLINING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE                  
ACTION STAGE. ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE...THE LEVEL IS             
ABOUT A HALF FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT FALLING STEADILY AND                  
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW 13 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL                        
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA                 
RIVERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  59  63  33  53  30 /  10  50   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  61  64  34  53  39 /  10  50   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       57  58  30  50  34 /  40  60   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  61  30  51  29 /  30  60   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     59  64  32  52  31 /  10  50   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   58  70  36  56  32 /  10  30  10   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...                 
     HOUSTON.                                                                   
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...                    
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...                   
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...                      
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...               
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST SUNDAY TO 12 PM              
     EST MONDAY ALL MARINE LEGS.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/WOOL                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
320 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES DURING SUNDAY TO END THE CURRENT                 
STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...                                    
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL                  
WATERS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAST NORTHERN STREAM              
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS CARVING OUT A MEAN                
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER              
LOW SPINNING OVER THE DAKOTAS. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ARE RIDING             
THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND EJECTING ACROSS THE            
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE FURTHER                 
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF A NOW STRONG              
OCEAN STORM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW AND ICE TO THE NORTHEASTERN               
STATES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WE STILL FIND OUR                
LARGE AND DOMINANT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND                 
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES UNDER THE NORTHERN               
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND IS ENJOYING ONE MORE DAY OF                         
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES             
DURING SUNDAY.                                                                  
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGH                 
CENTERED TO OUR SE IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPA FLORIDA. ANALYSIS ALSO              
SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL/MS.             
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS RESULTING IN A MOIST LOW             
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC BREAK OF SUN. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE IN               
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.                                                        
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE EAST TO THE TN                     
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...WILL BE WATCHING A COLD                 
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW CENTER MOVING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER                 
MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. AS THE LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH                   
OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH            
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THE TN VALLEY LOW WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY                   
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY EARLY                  
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT                
STILL TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE                  
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK MOVING FRONT AS STRONG SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CANADA AND PROVIDES           
A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PUSH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE                 
NW HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF            
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCE                   
PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGE.               
STILL EXPECTING A THINNING BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS              
FRONT AS NARROWING CORRIDOR OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION                      
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR NW ZONES             
ACROSS SE AL/SW GA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL             
BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON.             
THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES APPEARS                 
LIMITED AS THEIR DURATION SHOULD BE BRIEF AND RESULT GENERALLY IN               
ONLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION. A RUMBLE              
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY AND                 
NORTHWARD EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER WITH VERY LIMITED                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT...THE              
SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS SMALL.                                      
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS                 
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO                 
SOUTHEAST. ALL ZONES WILL FEEL THE DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS BY THE TIME            
THE SUN SETS SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND            
30S WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES MAY EVEN            
SEE AN HOUR OR TWO AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND              
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE IN            
THE 10-15+ DEGREE RANGE AND WITH A STEADY BREEZE...FROST FORMATION              
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.                                                        
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO               
OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT BELOW NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES DURING THE              
DAY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0 AT OUR NORTHERN BORDERS TO                  
AROUND 5C AT THE COAST. WHILE THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF                
YEAR FOR THESE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD BE IN THE            
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S...CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE                 
NORTH WILL PREVENT THESE POTENTIALS FROM BEING REACHED. HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND THE            
MIDDLE 50S SOUTH DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE             
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT VEERING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE                 
EAST. A BIT SUSPICIOUS OF THE VERY COLD MAV NUMBERS (MIDDLE AND                 
UPPER 20S) FOR MONDAY NIGHT AT PLACES LIKE KTLH AND KABY. THESE                 
VALUES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE HIGH CENTER WERE IN THE VICINITY             
PROVIDING AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HOWEVER...WITH THE                
FORECAST POSITION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT THE GRADIENT             
TO REMAIN A BIT TOO STRONG AND WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES KEEPING THE               
COLDEST LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 29/30 F FOR NOW.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)                                                   
AFTER A COOL AND DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY                     
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL               
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING                
QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO JUMP             
BACK AND FORTH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT            
THAT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH            
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AROUND                  
CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW HANGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT UP JUST            
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY             
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST (VERY               
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT WARM PATTERN).                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNED BRIEFLY TO MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...             
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST AND               
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS AND                
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST            
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING OFF THE             
GULF ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT A RAPID                 
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE                  
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL            
IFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS                  
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY                    
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY  THAT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY             
SUNRISE...AND EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.             
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT                    
TONIGHT...AND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A              
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED                
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                       
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD                 
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS SUNDAY MORNING AND            
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND              
NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATER SUNDAY AND                  
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES TO              
OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD VEERING OUR WINDS AROUND              
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECT TO REMAIN TIGHT               
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL                  
AIRMASS THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL MONDAY. A COLD                 
FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A                 
TEMPORARY SURGE OF MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR. DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE             
HUMIDITY ARE LIKELY TO MEET CRITICAL LEVELS ON MONDAY                           
AFTERNOON...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE                     
TRI-STATE AREA FOR MONDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
STILL EXPERIENCING LOCALIZED RIVER PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA IN                  
THE WAKE OF LAST WEEKS HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST NOTABLE RIVERS STILL                
EXPERIENCING HIGH FLOW/LEVELS INCLUDE THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...THE               
APALACHICOLA RIVER...AND THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER. ALONG THE                    
OCHLOCKNEE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE TO THE NORTH OF              
THE LAKE TALQUIN DAM. HAVANA AND MIDWAY GAUGES ARE CURRENTLY IN                 
ACTION STAGE WITH CONCORD STILL JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALONG THE               
APALACHICOLA RIVER THE BLOUNTSTOWN GAUGE IS DECLINING RAPIDLY                   
THROUGH THE ACTION STAGE LEVEL HAVING DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE                 
FRIDAY EVENING. FINALLY FURTHEST WEST ALONG THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER            
WE FIND STAGES ALSO FALLING. CARYVILLE GAUGE DROPPED BELOW FLOOD                
STAGE ON THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE EARLY                
THIS EVENING. FURTHER DOWN RIVER AT THE BRUCE GAUGE WE ARE STILL                
FINDING SOME MINOR PROBLEMS. THE RIVER LEVEL IS FALLING AND HAS                 
RECENTLY CROSSING THROUGH 14 FEET (OUT OF MODERATE FLOODING STAGE               
AND INTO MINOR FLOODING STAGE).                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA                
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH RAINFALL                
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  59  63  33  53  30 /  10  50   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  61  64  34  53  39 /  10  50   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       57  58  30  50  34 /  40  60   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  61  30  51  29 /  30  60   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     59  64  32  52  31 /  10  50   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   58  70  36  56  32 /  10  30  10   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...                 
     HOUSTON.                                                                   
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...                    
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...                   
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...                      
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...               
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...MROCZKA                                  
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL                                                   
LONG TERM...GIBBS                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1000 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...                                                         
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAST NORTHERN STREAM              
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS CARVING              
OUT A MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES ANCHORED BY A               
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE DAKOTAS. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES            
ARE RIDING THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND EJECTING            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE              
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF A NOW             
STRONG OCEAN STORM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW AND ICE TO THE                     
NORTHEASTERN STATES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WE STILL            
FIND OUR LARGE AND DOMINANT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO            
AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES UNDER THE                    
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND WILL ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF                 
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REALITY OF THE SEASON                 
ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                        
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGH                 
CENTERED TO OUR SE IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPA FLORIDA. ANALYSIS ALSO              
SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL/MS.             
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS RESULTING IN A MOIST LOW             
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS (~1000FT BASES) ARE              
EVIDENT ON THE FIRST EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SAT IMAGES. THE MOISTURE             
TO SUPPORT THIS STRATUS IS SHOWN CLEARLY ON THE 12Z KTLH SOUNDING               
WHICH HAS A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE BELOW AROUND 850MB.                        
HOWEVER...ABOVE AROUND 4-5KFT THE PROFILE BECOMES VERY DRY AS OUR               
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING             
OVER THE GULF. THIS PROFILE SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS               
THIS MORNING TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE AT              
AN ANNUAL MINIMUM FOR SOLAR INSOLATION)...HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE             
TO GET THE SUN OUT (MIXED WITH SOME SCT CU) FOR THE AFTERNOON.                  
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S IS               
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND               
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE IN              
SPOTS AS WELL...MAINLY ALONG THE FRANKLIN COUNTY COAST AND EASTWARD             
WHERE THE COOLEST SHELF WATERS IN APALACHEE BAY REACT WITH THE WARM             
AND MOIST FLOW. WILL LEAVE THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT              
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION                  
TOWARD MIDDAY.                                                                  
ONCE THE EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF WILL BE LOOKING AT A PARTLY              
SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN               
THE MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE                
THOUGH...TODAY WILL BE THE END TO THIS PARTICULAR STREAK OF                     
UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT APPROACH               
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY OFF THE             
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NW HALF             
OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE                
FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE WATCHING A              
THINNING BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS NARROWING             
CORRIDOR OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A FEW             
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR NW ZONES ACROSS SE AL/SW GA LATE                 
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE             
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS                  
SHOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS THEIR DURATION            
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND RESULT GENERALLY IN ONLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN             
INCH OF RAINFALL...IF NOT LESS.                                                 
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS                 
FRONT LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO            
SOUTHEAST. ALL ZONES WILL FEEL THE DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS BY THE TIME            
THE SUN SETS SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND            
30S WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES MAY EVEN            
SEE AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY            
MORNING...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE BY THIS              
TIME IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AND A STEADY BREEZE...FROST FORMATION            
LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO LIMIT            
THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS...               
WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES PERSIST OVER THE                 
COOLER COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COAST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE             
OVERALL PATTERN OR AIRMASS...WILL SEE ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AGAIN               
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IFR             
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFTING BY LATE MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS             
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT MOST AREAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.                  
HOWEVER... EXPECT A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND               
VISIBILITIES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY                
ACROSS FLORIDA. ON SUNDAY A FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL TO THE               
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...               
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY                   
SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...                
BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A              
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED                
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT             
THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT               
WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT              
TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE               
THEN MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD VEERING OUR             
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECT TO               
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS                    
ELEVATED NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.                                                
AREAS OF SEA FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH THE MOST            
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS ALONG THE FRANKLIN COUNTY            
COAST AND EASTWARD. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT               
AND WILL RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION AROUND MIDDAY WHEN THE FOG MAY               
HAVE A TENDENCY TO THIN OR LIFT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
STILL SEEING SOME SPOTTY RIVER PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE             
OF LAST WEEKS HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST NOTABLE RIVERS STILL EXPERIENCING            
HIGH FLOW/LEVELS INCLUDE THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...THE APALACHICOLA               
RIVER...AND THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER. ALONG THE OCHLOCKNEE RIVER                
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE TALQUIN              
DAM. HAVANA AND MIDWAY GAUGES ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH                
CONCORD STILL JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALONG THE APALACHICOLA RIVER              
THE BLOUNTSTOWN GAUGE IS DECLINING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE ACTION STAGE             
LEVEL HAVING DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. FINALLY                  
FURTHEST WEST ALONG THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER WE FIND STAGES ALSO                
FALLING. CARYVILLE GAUGE DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY                  
EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE THIS AFTERNOON OR            
EVENING. FURTHER DOWN RIVER AT THE BRUCE GAUGE WE ARE STILL FINDING             
SOME MINOR PROBLEMS. THE RIVER LEVEL IS FALLING AND WAS CROSSING                
THROUGH 14 FEET THIS MORNING (OUT OF MODERATE FLOODING STAGE AND                
INTO MINOR FLOODING STAGE).                                                     
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE               
AREA SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH                    
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON                 
AREA RIVERS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  76  55  63  32 /  0  10  50   0                                    
PANAMA CITY  73  60  65  34 /  0  10  50   0                                    
DOTHAN       76  53  58  30 / 10  30  60   0                                    
ALBANY       77  55  59  30 / 10  20  60   0                                    
VALDOSTA     76  54  63  31 /  0  10  40  10                                    
CROSS CITY   77  53  72  36 /  0  10  30  10                                    
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MORNING.                   
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO                        
     20NM FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER                
     INTO MIDDAY TODAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...MROCZKA                                  
AVIATION...DUVAL                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
912 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THE MAIN            
FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING IS ONCE AGAIN FOG POTENTIAL.                      
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT CHARTS, SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS ALL            
POINT TO A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ONCE                
DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT WE HAVE A BIT MORE WIND. HOWEVER, BASED              
ON SEVERAL RESEARCH STUDIES OF THE LOCAL AREA, WINDS ARE NOT                    
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGHT TO PREVENT AN ADVECTION FOG EVENT. WE               
ARE ALREADY SEEING LOW STRATUS/FOG NOSING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF               
THE FL BIG BEND. A LOOK OUT THE E WINDOW OF THE OFFICE CONFIRMS THAT            
THIS IS  FOG, RATHER THAN STRATUS. TD DEPRESSION ARE NEAR ZERO AND T            
AND TD ARE BOTH DROPPING TOWARD THE SHELF WATER SSTS. FOR THESE                 
REASONS, WILL GET AHEAD OF THE GAME AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY              
FOR LAND AREAS TO GO WITH THE EXISTING ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL                
WATERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS                  
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR            
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE              
WATERS ADJACENT TO GULF COUNTY AND EASTWARD.                                    
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE            
A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WITH LOW SEAS INTO TONIGHT. THE RIDGE              
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO                   
SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.              
MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE EXPECTED RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY NEAR             
SHORE FOG. THIS FOG IS LIKELY TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY              
ALONG THE COASTS OF GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA AND TAYLOR                       
COUNTIES...AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS               
AND SEAS SHOULD NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TOWARD CAUTIONARY               
LEVELS UNTIL THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THE            
NORTHWEST AND NORTH ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR              
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOG IS WAITING ALONG THE COAST TO POUNCE INLAND AFTER               
SUNSET.  EXPECTY VERY HEAVY ADVECTION FOG TONIGHT. FOG ARRIVAL TIME             
WILL BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THIS EVENING COMPARED TO LAST EVENING.                 
TRACKING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IT IS NOW APPARENT THAT PANAMA CITY             
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. FOG HAS ALREADY                  
ARRIVED AT APALACHICOLA.  HAVE ADJUSTED PFN TAF ACCORDINGLY.                    
FURTHER INLAND THERE IS STILL A GOOD SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPS AND                   
DEWPOINTS AT THE MOMENT...BUT THIS WON`T LAST.   EXPECT CONDITIONS              
TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND 03Z AND REACHING LIFR BY 06Z OVER MOST INLAND            
AERODROMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING              
TOMORROW...THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER AND                   
EXTREMELY DRY AIR WILL BRING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON MON.               
WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MON                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP              
BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT FLOOD STAGE SAT NIGHT. THE                   
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS            
EVENING. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT CONCORD IS ESTIMATED TO DROP BELOW            
FLOOD STAGE SAT NIGHT. NO OTHER RIVERINE FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
335 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE BUT                       
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS                   
MORNING. MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM              
FLOW INCLUDE A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST             
AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS EASILY SEEN ON WV                   
IMAGERY WITH DISTINCT DRYING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS IN/OH. AT THE                   
SURFACE THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY HAS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD AND RE-DEVELOPING            
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING EVENT            
THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW             
SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.              
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE BAJA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AS IT ARCHES UP AND OVER A LARGE AND              
DOMINATING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF                    
MEXICO/NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN.                                                     
CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.                  
EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS               
MORNING HAS GIVEN WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.                
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR DECEMBER ONGOING WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES             
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AT THE COAST.                  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT            
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.               
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER WATERS                  
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN AID IN FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE                  
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FIRST DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.                  
IMPRESSIVE FOG NUMBERS COMING OUT OF THE SREF ENSEMBLES WITH PROBS              
FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 DURING               
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (THIS IS HIGH FOR THE SREF). GRIDS TONIGHT WILL            
SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG (VIS < 1/4SM) OVER LAND             
AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THESE GRIDS AS THE DOMINANT            
WX THROUGH AROUND 10 AM EST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG                
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS (OR ALL) OF THE AREA             
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT               
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL BEFORE ISSUING ANY PRODUCT.                  
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL DROP             
INTO NORTHERN GA/AL/MS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL. FORCED ASCENT ALONG            
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS            
BOUNDARY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW                  
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA. AT THIS TIME...WOULD EXPECT MOST IF               
NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR ZONES AND WILL ONLY             
ADD A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO THE GRIDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM                  
AROUND DOTHAN TO ALBANY. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE               
AND UPPER 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.               
AFTER THE MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BREAK...LOOKING AT A SIMILAR                   
AFTERNOON TO THE ONE CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH A MIX OF SUN AND                    
CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS             
FOG MAY BE SLOW TO DISSOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WE ARE JUST ABOUT            
AT AN ANNUAL MINIMUM FOR SOLAR INSOLATION.                                      
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE                   
AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW                 
PRESSURE MOVING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY WILL ACT              
TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON HOURS AND PULL ANY LIMITED DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES             
WITH IT.                                                                        
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH            
A BIG UPPER LOW TAKING POSITION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW             
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT EVENING TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO THE                      
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM                  
THIS LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT FINALLY ENDS OUR STREAK OF                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE                
AREA SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER AS STRONG                     
1045MB HIGH PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PROVIDES A               
STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL                   
DYNAMICS FOR LIFT ARE LIMITED AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURES...NARROW               
CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE             
A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL                        
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW (GENERALLY 0.05-0.15") WITH RAIN DURATION ALSO            
SHORT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD CROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA                
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE BROKEN IN NATURE AS IT            
EXITS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL                   
PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE RISE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY              
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                          
A MUCH DIFFERENT FEEL WILL HAVE ARRIVED BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN                    
TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH CLEARING            
SKIES AND A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH. MAV NUMBERS SEEM A BIT              
ON THE COLD SIDE FOR THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL BE                  
LOOKING AT ADVECTION...AS OPPOSED TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT               
GRIDS WILL REFLECT TEMPS 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE THESE MAV NUMBERS IN              
RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WARMER                  
OVERALL AIRMASS. EVEN STILL THIS WILL RESULT IN MANY LOCATIONS FROM             
VALDOSTA TO TALLAHASSEE AND THEN NORTH AND WEST REACHING THE LOWER              
30S FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.                             
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT                
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...THEN                 
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF. IN THE WAKE OF               
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ABOVE...CAA AND                    
SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER              
AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE                 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL             
DROP DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY AND                   
TUESDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S                
MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MODERATE BACK              
TO OR ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC              
COAST AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE              
AREA. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO                
LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO                  
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND              
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.                                                         
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD             
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME                    
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WILL SHOW HIGHER RAIN CHANCES                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SHOW A CLEARING              
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  56  76  56  63  32 /   0   0  10  50   0                           
PANAMA CITY  60  73  62  65  35 /   0   0  10  50   0                           
DOTHAN       59  75  55  59  30 /  10  10  30  60   0                           
ALBANY       57  76  57  60  30 /  10  10  30  60   0                           
VALDOSTA     54  76  57  63  32 /   0   0  10  50   0                           
CROSS CITY   52  76  55  71  34 /   0   0  10  30  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.                  
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.                  
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.                  
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO 20NM FROM              
     DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER INTO MIDDAY              
     SAT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
LONG TERM...GIBBS                                                               
AVIATION...LANIER                                                               
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
335 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE BUT                       
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS                   
MORNING. MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM              
FLOW INCLUDE A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST             
AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS EASILY SEEN ON WV                   
IMAGERY WITH DISTINCT DRYING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS IN/OH. AT THE                   
SURFACE THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY HAS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD AND RE-DEVELOPING            
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING EVENT            
THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW             
SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.              
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE BAJA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AS IT ARCHES UP AND OVER A LARGE AND              
DOMINATING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF                    
MEXICO/NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN.                                                     
CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.                  
EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS               
MORNING HAS GIVEN WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.                
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR DECEMBER ONGOING WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES             
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AT THE COAST.                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE WILL                 
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL               
FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER WATERS            
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN AID IN FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE                  
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FIRST DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.                  
IMPRESSIVE FOG NUMBERS COMING OUT OF THE SREF ENSEMBLES WITH PROBS              
FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 DURING               
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (THIS IS HIGH FOR THE SREF). GRIDS TONIGHT WILL            
SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG (VIS < 1/4SM) OVER LAND             
AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THESE GRIDS AS THE DOMINANT            
WX THROUGH AROUND 10 AM EST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG                
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS (OR ALL) OF THE AREA             
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT               
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL BEFORE ISSUING ANY PRODUCT.                  
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL DROP             
INTO NORTHERN GA/AL/MS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL. FORCED ASCENT ALONG            
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS            
BOUNDARY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW                  
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA. AT THIS TIME...WOULD EXPECT MOST IF               
NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR ZONES AND WILL ONLY             
ADD A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO THE GRIDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM                  
AROUND DOTHAN TO ALBANY. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE               
AND UPPER 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.               
AFTER THE MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BREAK...LOOKING AT A SIMILAR                   
AFTERNOON TO THE ONE CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH A MIX OF SUN AND                    
CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS             
FOG MAY BE SLOW TO DISSOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WE ARE JUST ABOUT            
AT AN ANNUAL MINIMUM FOR SOLAR INSOLATION.                                      
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE                   
AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW                 
PRESSURE MOVING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY WILL ACT              
TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON HOURS AND PULL ANY LIMITED DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES             
WITH IT.                                                                        
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH            
A BIG UPPER LOW TAKING POSITION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW             
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT EVENING TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO THE                      
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM                  
THIS LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT FINALLY ENDS OUR STREAK OF                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE                
AREA SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER AS STRONG                     
1045MB HIGH PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PROVIDES A               
STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL                   
DYNAMICS FOR LIFT ARE LIMITED AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURES...NARROW               
CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE             
A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL                        
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW (GENERALLY 0.05-0.15") WITH RAIN DURATION ALSO            
SHORT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD CROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA                
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE BROKEN IN NATURE AS IT            
EXITS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL                   
PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE RISE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY              
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                          
A MUCH DIFFERENT FEEL WILL HAVE ARRIVED BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN                    
TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH CLEARING            
SKIES AND A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH. MAV NUMBERS SEEM A BIT              
ON THE COLD SIDE FOR THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL BE                  
LOOKING AT ADVECTION...AS OPPOSED TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT               
GRIDS WILL REFLECT TEMPS 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE THESE MAV NUMBERS IN              
RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WARMER                  
OVERALL AIRMASS. EVEN STILL THIS WILL RESULT IN MANY LOCATIONS FROM             
VALDOSTA TO TALLAHASSEE AND THEN NORTH AND WEST REACHING THE LOWER              
30S FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.                             
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT                
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...THEN                 
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF. IN THE WAKE OF               
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ABOVE...CAA AND                    
SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER              
AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE                 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL             
DROP DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY AND                   
TUESDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S                
MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MODERATE BACK              
TO OR ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC              
COAST AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE              
AREA. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO                
LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO                  
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND              
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.                                                         
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD             
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME                    
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WILL SHOW HIGHER RAIN CHANCES                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SHOW A CLEARING              
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS AND VSBYS SCATTERED OUT TO VFR AROUND NOON TODAY WITH CIGS                 
RANGING AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL GO MOSTLY               
VERY LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD              
VERY HEAVY ADVECTION FOG TRANSPORTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE             
GOMEX IS EMPHATICALLY PREDICTED BY THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT.  EXPECT              
IFR CONDITIONS STARTING BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DROPPING RAPIDLY TO             
LIFR AND VLIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT MOST AERODROMES. THE HEAVY FOG WILL              
LAST TO 11AM TOMORROW MORNING.  CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE TO MVFR BY              
NOON AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING               
THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR              
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE              
WATERS ADJACENT TO GULF COUNTY AND EASTWARD.                                    
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE            
A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WITH LOW SEAS INTO TONIGHT. THE RIDGE              
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO                   
SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.              
MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE EXPECTED RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY NEAR             
SHORE FOG. THIS FOG IS LIKELY TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY              
ALONG THE COASTS OF GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA AND TAYLOR                       
COUNTIES...AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS               
AND SEAS SHOULD NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TOWARD CAUTIONARY               
LEVELS UNTIL THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THE            
NORTHWEST AND NORTH ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR              
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WARM MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE                   
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE THRESHOLDS AND LOW DISPERSION INDICES BOTH IN             
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL                
MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.               
MUCH COLDER AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR WILL BRING VERY LOW RELATIVE                  
HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY.  WILL LIKELY ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH TOMORROW              
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  56  76  56  63  32 /   0   0  10  50   0                           
PANAMA CITY  60  73  62  65  35 /   0   0  10  50   0                           
DOTHAN       59  75  55  59  30 /  10  10  30  60   0                           
ALBANY       57  76  57  60  30 /  10  10  30  60   0                           
VALDOSTA     54  76  57  63  32 /   0   0  10  50   0                           
CROSS CITY   52  76  55  71  34 /   0   0  10  30  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR WATERS OUT TO 20NM FROM                    
     DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER AFTER                    
     MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
LONG TERM...GIBBS                                                               
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...LANIER                                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
945 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE BUT                       
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS                   
MORNING. MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM              
FLOW INCLUDE A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST             
AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MIDDLE MS                  
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EASILY SEEN ON             
WV IMAGERY WITH DISTINCT DRYING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MO/IL/IN (EVEN A             
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA). AT THE SURFACE THIS             
MID-LEVEL ENERGY HAS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER                     
OHIO WHICH WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS               
EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING EVENT CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE            
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS            
LOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERN STREAM               
FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE BAJA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
TIER OF THE U.S. AS IT ARCHES UP AND OVER A LARGE AND DOMINATING                
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST              
CARRIBEAN.                                                                      
CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.                  
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG             
AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ZONES THAT HAVE ESCAPED            
THIS FOG THOSE CLOSER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES             
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.                                             
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
THE MORNING WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS REGION-WIDE FOR THE                    
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE THE FOG LINGER A BIT LONGER ALONG THE COASTLINE              
OF GULF...FRANKLIN...AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...BUT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS            
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS OF SUN. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR            
MID DECEMBER WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. DUE TO              
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD END             
UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY COOLER            
SHELF WATERS.                                                                   
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A MORE               
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE               
FLOW OFF THE COOLER WATERS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS TO                 
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE             
NIGHT AND FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. IMPRESSIVE FOG                  
NUMBERS COMING OUT OF THE SREF ENSEMBLES WITH PROBS FOR WIDESPREAD              
VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 DURING THE LATE NIGHT               
HOURS (THIS IS HIGH FOR THE SREF). GRIDS TONIGHT WILL SHOW                      
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG (VIS < 1/4SM) AND WILL                   
CONTINUE THIS AS THE DOMINANT WX THROUGH AROUND 10 AM EST. WOULD NOT            
BE SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN OVER                 
PORTIONS (OR ALL) OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE                  
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP SHOULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER                    
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HEAVY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INCLUDING PANHANDLE MARINE AREAS               
LAST NIGHT DUE TO COLD SHELF WATERS. FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG                     
PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS BUT ALL AERODROMES SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR              
WITH 3KFT SCT CLOUDS BY NOON AT THE LATEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL            
KEEP PUMPING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION. VERY HEAVY WIDESPREAD                 
DENSE FOG TO VLIFR LEVELS TO REAPPEAR EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL                      
AERODROMES LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT ON              
SUNDAY WILL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BLOW THE FOG OUT OF THE AREA ON             
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE MARINE AREA  WILL CONTINUE TO                   
PROVIDE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW SEAS INTO            
THE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE             
NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS OF GULF...FRANKLIN              
AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE A BIT              
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME             
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD NOT SHOW A             
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TOWARD CAUTIONARY LEVELS UNTIL THE APPROACH AND            
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF ADVISORY             
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY               
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVE AT BRUCE SHOWS                
THAT RIVER HAS CRESTED BUT IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MODERATE             
FLOOD STAGE UNTIL FRI NIGHT AND NOT DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUN            
MORNING. UPSTREAM AT CARYVILLE, THE RIVER CONTINUES TO DROP BELOW               
FLOOD STAGE. THE CHIPOLA RIVER IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE                         
THROUGHOUT ITS COURSE. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS                 
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDDAY SUN. THE RIVER HAS             
CRESTED DOWNSTREAM AT SUMATRA. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT CONCORD IS              
GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNSTREAM AT HAVANA, THE RIVER CRESTED ON FRIDAY            
AT FLOOD STAGE. NO OTHER RIVERINE FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE 77  55  75  55/ 0   0   0   0                                       
PANAMA CITY 73  60  74  59/ 0   0   0   0                                       
DOTHAN      76  57  76  55/ 0   0   0   0                                       
ALBANY      77  57  78  56/ 0   0   0   0                                       
VALDOSTA    78  55  78  56/ 0   0   0   0                                       
CROSS CITY  78  52  78  54/ 0   0   0   0                                       
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z FRI FOR GMZ750.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                
AVIATION...LANIER                                                               
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1129 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                              
SHORT-WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS SPREADING LIGHT               
TO MODERATE SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST                
RADAR MOSAIC NOW SHOWING THE SNOW BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ACROSS                    
EASTERN IOWA. 12Z RUC/NAM-WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING SYSTEM WELL...AS              
IT QUICKLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING. WITH                 
SLIGHTLY FASTER EVOLUTION...HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE               
CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS              
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE I-72 CORRIDOR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
BEST SHOT AT SEEING LIGHT SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE THIS                         
EVENING...BEFORE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEPARTS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS               
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH WELL UNDER ONE INCH EXPECTED                   
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1129 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                              
LOW CEILINGS OF AROUND 1000FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS              
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WINDS                 
WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE AT AROUND 10KT...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN               
10KT AS A TROUGH AXIS SWINGS TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.              
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SKIRT                 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO THE NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERNMOST               
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED                   
CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT AND VISBYS DOWN TO 3 TO 4SM AT BOTH KPIA AND              
KBMI BETWEEN 22Z AND 05Z. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL BRING IN A PERIOD                
OF LIGHTER SNOW WITH HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISBYS. ALL PRECIP WILL                
QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS GUSTY W/NW WINDS                    
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GUST AS                 
HIGH AS 30KT OVERNIGHT...THEN UP TO 35KT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF                      
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS CEILINGS RISING TO              
AROUND 1500FT AFTER 14Z SUN.                                                    
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 220 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                               
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST               
INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WERE HELPING TO KEEP               
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. UPSTAIRS...140 KNOT JET                 
FLOWING OVERHEAD AT THE 300 MB LEVEL. BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS FOUND               
ACROSS MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BEHIND INVERTED SURFACE               
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.                               
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW THIS COLD AIR MASS                 
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN WIND                
CHILLS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. IN THE LONGER TERM...PRECIPITATION        
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS.                   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
HIGH PRESSURE TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT...MOVING IN FROM               
THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY AM EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE                  
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT HAVE 30-40                
PERCENT POPS GOING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE               
CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A                    
DUSTING IF THAT.                                                                
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING THE FRONT ITSELF ACROSS THE CWA               
BY LATE EVENING...AND INTENSIFYING THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AS IT                
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH                   
PRESSURE BEHIND IT...THE PRESSURE CONTRAST WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY              
WEST WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT WITH              
HOW LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET...WITH GFS MOS KEEPING                 
ITS WARMER BIAS GOING. UNDERCUT THE COLDER NAM MOS ACROSS THE                   
NORTH BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHERE EXISTING SNOW/ICE COVER IS MORE                 
SUBSTANTIAL...AND USED MORE OF A BLEND BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS FURTHER              
SOUTH. THE RESULTING NUMBERS GIVE WIND CHILL READINGS COLDER THAN               
15 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA EVEN DURING THE DAY. ELECTED TO                
RAISE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY               
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 136. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD I-72 WILL BE ON                
THE FENCE WITH THE CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW...AND WILL LEAVE THEM OUT               
AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND              
INTO MONDAY...AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN                    
ILLINOIS.                                                                       
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
NEXT FOCUS IS ON STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH           
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
PROGGED TO COME THROUGH ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION               
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERMAL                
PROFILES REMAIN TROUBLING REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER                  
ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW. AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-55 CURRENTLY                  
LOOK TO BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW...WITH THE MIXTURE TO THE                    
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL QUITE AWAYS OUT...AND CAN                    
EASILY CHANGE BY THE TIME TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND. PRECIPITATION                   
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO CHRISTMAS EVE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY                     
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE                    
HOLIDAY.                                                                        
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR                     
ILZ027>031-036>038.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
501 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE               
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                  
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS.               
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS               
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT            
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH             
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL POTENTIAL              
AS WELL AS POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                        
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
ZONES DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHICH                
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST               
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST FLURRIES                
SOUTH OF THAT AREA. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z          
SO WILL LEAVE FLURRIES OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES.                                
FOR THE SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY...DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL AREA OF                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND            
MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE AFTER 06Z                
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE TUESDAY EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT LEFT POPS             
AT SLIGHT CHANCE.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT LEAVING             
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO HAVE A SMALL AREA OF                 
FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SOUTH ZONES OTHERWISE WILL REMOVE POPS. ALL               
OTHER PERIODS...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY WITH NIL              
POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.                                                         
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN QUESTION DUE TO WIND SPEED BEHIND THE                  
EXITING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE WORST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE              
ABOUT 12 MPH OR JUST ABOVE THE CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE             
AND AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LOWER IF THE GFS WINDS            
ARE RIGHT. LOWER WINDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE RUC. THERE MAY BE A            
FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE BORDERLINE OR JUST               
ABOVE CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL GOES AWAY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z.                      
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS             
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MINS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR JUST BELOW             
ZERO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING SOME WARMER AIR               
BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO WITH SINGLE              
DIGIT READINGS. MINS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY NIGHT WITH                    
INCREASING CLOUDS. READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. TUESDAY NIGHT               
LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME POSSIBLE             
SNOW ON THE GROUND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE              
TEENS SUNDAY WARMING TO THE 20S MONDAY/TUESDAY.                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WESTERLY FLOW WILL             
DOMINATE THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES                
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE GFS                 
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A WINTER STORM                
WHILE THE EUROPEAN TAKES AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE                
FORECAST DRY AND WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO GET RESOLUTION ON               
THIS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO ABOVE NORMAL 40S WITH                
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING. MINS WILL RISE BACK TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE               
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.                                
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
501 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT               
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR A FEW                    
FLURRIES AT KGLD AS MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE TRANSLATES SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT             
OUTSIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WITH -SN/LOW CIGS, VFR WILL PREVAIL. A           
SECONDARY CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE KMCK AREA AS                  
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES              
UPSTREAM REMAIN LARGE THIS EVENING SO CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND/OR              
VISIBILITY CROSSING FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY THRESHOLDS REMAINS LOW.                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
700 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS OVER              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES               
EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC             
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO FORECAST AREA               
AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z. A SURFACE LOW                  
EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RESULTING             
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN             
EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. ADVISORIES WILL KEEP              
ELSEWHERE AS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.                
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY FALL ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY               
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS IS FURTHER                    
SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR             
WARNING. HOWEVER...WRF/NAM12 SHOWING WINDS BACKING NORTH SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND             
LACK OF TERRAIN SUPPORT OF LES. THUS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT                 
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA TOO. AFTER COORDINATED WITH GRB DECIDED TO             
STAY WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                     
SUN NIGHT...EXPECT TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
WITH CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS WITH GOOD                  
UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ THROUGH 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH SNOW/WATER                
RATIOS SHOULD BE AOA 30/1 DURING THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED WINDY             
CONDITIONS...FRACTURING AND DRIFTING SHOULD REDUCE ACTUAL/OBSERVED              
SNOW TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH               
RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS...WITH THE GREATEST             
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE LIFT WILL OCCUR.             
OVERNIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS/ EXIT OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF AND LES SHOULD SHIFT            
TOWARD NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE                  
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
AS WINDS BACK TO WRLY BY MIDDAY MON...LES WILL SHIFT INTO                       
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE UPPER MI WHILE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER              
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN MON                  
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET CLOSER TO               
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE VALUES NEAR -10F WELL INLAND.                                
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL AND SFC               
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SNOW. MDLS TEMP/UVV/RH PROFILE SUGGEST SNOW/WATER MAY BE RELATIVELY             
LOW WITH BEST LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ. SO WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO             
0.20 RANGE AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 15/1 ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN              
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                        
WED...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
STRONGER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET                
FAVORED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS              
AND CMC DID NOT. IF THE EURO MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER HEAVY                      
SNOW EVENT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW IN N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                              
THU-SAT...THE FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CMC               
MDLS SCENARIO WHICH ALSO HAD DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLES. THE 06Z/12Z WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING A WEAKER NRN                  
STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN TIER AND DELAYING THE EJECTION OF A               
STRONGER SHRTWV FROM THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH A SW FLOW PATTERN AND              
STRONGER SE CONUS RIDGE...A SHRTWV AND SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH OR WEST            
OF CNTRL UPPER MI COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN                          
(SN/FZRA/PL/RA) AND A BRIEF WARMUP AOA FREEZING BY LATE FRI.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW IS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MICHIGAN AS                
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT LGT             
SNOW...MOSTLY IFR VSBY/CIGS...TO START UP AT BOTH SITES BY MIDNIGHT.            
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW/POTENTIAL VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS LATE                 
TONIGHT AT CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...THEN BY LATE                  
SUNDAY MORNING AT SAW. IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY             
AFTN...EXPECT VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITE DUE TO LK EFFECT               
SNOW...STRONG NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS...AND SIGNIFICANT                  
BLOWING SNOW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO               
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 OR              
40 KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT              
OF CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING                  
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GALE FORCE            
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS             
ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON                     
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES CRITERIA WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY AND THE              
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE                
FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST                   
     MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.                                                 
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ001-003.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7               
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WATCH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-250.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS OVER              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES               
EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
A STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DEEP                        
MOISTURE THROUGH 20KFT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF             
SYNOPTIC SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO                    
FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z. A                
SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MERGE WITH THE            
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS               
THE RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP            
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS            
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. ADVISORIES              
WILL KEEP ELSEWHERE AS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING                
CRITERIA. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY              
FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF                   
KEWEENAW COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS IS            
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE                
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOR POSSIBLE NEED            
FOR WARNING. HOWEVER...WRF/NAM12 SHOWING WINDS BACKING NORTH SHORTLY            
AFTER SUNRISE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND             
LACK OF TERRAIN SUPPORT OF LES. THUS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT                 
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA TOO. AFTER COORDINATED WITH GRB DECIDED TO             
STAY WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                    
SUN NIGHT...EXPECT TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
WITH CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS WITH GOOD                  
UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ THROUGH 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH SNOW/WATER                
RATIOS SHOULD BE AOA 30/1 DURING THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED WINDY             
CONDITIONS...FRACTURING AND DRIFTING SHOULD REDUCE ACTUAL/OBSERVED              
SNOW TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH               
RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS...WITH THE GREATEST             
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE LIFT WILL OCCUR.             
OVERNIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS/ EXIT OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF AND LES SHOULD SHIFT            
TOWARD NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE                  
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
AS WINDS BACK TO WRLY BY MIDDAY MON...LES WILL SHIFT INTO                       
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE UPPER MI WHILE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER              
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN MON                  
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET CLOSER TO               
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE VALUES NEAR -10F WELL INLAND.                                
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL AND SFC               
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SNOW. MDLS TEMP/UVV/RH PROFILE SUGGEST SNOW/WATER MAY BE RELATIVELY             
LOW WITH BEST LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ. SO WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO             
0.20 RANGE AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 15/1 ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN              
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                        
WED...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
STRONGER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET                
FAVORED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS              
AND CMC DID NOT. IF THE EURO MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER HEAVY                      
SNOW EVENT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW IN N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                              
THU-SAT...THE FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CMC               
MDLS SCENARIO WHICH ALSO HAD DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLES. THE 06Z/12Z WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING A WEAKER NRN                  
STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN TIER AND DELAYING THE EJECTION OF A               
STRONGER SHRTWV FROM THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH A SW FLOW PATTERN AND              
STRONGER SE CONUS RIDGE...A SHRTWV AND SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH OR WEST            
OF CNTRL UPPER MI COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN                          
(SN/FZRA/PL/RA) AND A BRIEF WARMUP AOA FREEZING BY LATE FRI.                    
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF BIG BAY AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL             
PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS THAT CMX WILL BE MAINLY              
IMPACT. MVFR FOR VSBYS/CIGS CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE                 
EFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT SAW THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON SINCE EAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT.               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST SO CEILINGS AT BOTH                
SITES SHOULD REMAINING MVFR.                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SNOW TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.                        
VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE...AND HAVE GONE                 
WITH THAT FOR THE TAFS. CIGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...WHICH THE IFR             
IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY AT SAW SINCE CMX WILL BE ABLE TO STAY MORE              
MIXED IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATE             
IN THE NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT               
BAND MOVING THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. LIFR WILL SET UP DURING THE                   
MORNING AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO               
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 OR              
40 KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT              
OF CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING                  
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GALE FORCE            
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS             
ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON                     
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES CRITERIA WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY AND THE              
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE                
FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST                   
     MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.                                                 
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ001-003.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7               
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WATCH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-250.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1228 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS                   
DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM                
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
THE LOW WILL ONLY TREK SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER            
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE LITTLE                
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE                 
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA TRACKS             
ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW OVER             
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BY THIS EVENING            
STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB DIV Q FIELDS AND DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH                
20KFT WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT             
AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO FA AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON/T ARRIVE             
IN MOST PLACE TILL AFT 00Z. A SFC LOW EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS                
AFTN WILL MERGE WITH THE IV TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER LAKE HURON SUN                
AFTN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW               
FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER                   
MICHIGAN. WENT WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR                                   
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. OPTED FOR ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE AS            
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...THOUGH COULD               
ENVISION MENOMINEE BEING UPGRADED AS THEY MAY SEE SOME LAKE                     
ENHANCEMENT OFF LM. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8                              
INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF                     
MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN                    
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO             
TRACK EAST AND MERGES WITH A COASTAL LOW WHICH DEEPENS TO AROUND                
970MB OVER MAINE ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SHIFTING HIGHER LES POPS TO AREAS              
FAVORED BY A NW WIND. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH AS                
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN             
SETTLES IN OVER THE FA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH              
SKIES MAY CLEAR ON MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT MAY              
NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH...RIGHT NOW HAVE LOWS                   
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WEST AND NEAR              
ZERO EAST. IF RETURN FLOW IS DELAYED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST             
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MUCH LOWER AS AIRMASS IS               
QUITE DRY AS NOTED BY PWAT/S LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH. NEXT SYSTEM               
THEN MOVES IN ON TUESDAY...OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AS                  
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS TO            
BE AN ADSRY EVENT AT BEST SLR LOOK TO BE AROUND 15/18:1...GIVEN LACK            
OF LIFT WITHIN DENDRITIC ZONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF BIG BAY AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL             
PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS THAT CMX WILL BE MAINLY              
IMPACTE. MVFR FOR VSBYS/CIGS CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE                
EFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT SAW THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON SINCE EAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT.               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST SO CEILINGS AT BOTH                
SITES SHOULD REMAINING MVFR.                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SNOW TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.                        
VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE...AND HAVE GONE                 
WITH THAT FOR THE TAFS. CIGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...WHICH THE IFR             
IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY AT SAW SINCE CMX WILL BE ABLE TO STAY MORE              
MIXED IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATE             
IN THE NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT               
BAND MOVING THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. LIFR WILL SET UP DURING THE                   
MORNING AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KT FOR MOST              
OF TODAY...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE              
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A             
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CONSOLIDATING AND                  
DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING.            
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO NORTH GALES TO 35 OR 40              
KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT OF              
CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.              
LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BELOW GALES AS THE            
LOW PULLS AWAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE            
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY              
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NO GALES ARE                 
PLANNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON            
TUESDAY AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL                  
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST                   
     MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.                                                 
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ001-003.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7               
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WATCH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-250.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OPTED TO ISSUE LES WRNG FOR WRN ALGER COUNTY AND EXTEND WRNG FOR MQT            
COUNTY/ADVY FOR BARAGA COUNTY WITH PERSISTENT...WELL DVLPD LES BAND             
NOTED JUST OFFSHORE STREAMING INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/ERN MQT COUNTY.             
88D ESTIMATES SHOW 0.08"/HR WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN UNDER THIS BAND.              
CONSIDERING OBSVD 40:1-50:1 SN/WATER RATIOS AND NEARLY                          
UNIDIRECTIONAL NE FLOW SHOWN ON MQT VWP THRU 5K-6K FT MSL...SUSPECT             
BAND WL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AND              
DROP SN AT THE RATE OF 1-2"/HR AT SOME PLACES. AS SFC-H925 WINDS                
DIMINISH TOWARD 06Z AND VEER MORE E...SUSPECT BANDS WL WEAKEN WITH              
SHSN CONSOLIDATING NEAR LK SUP IN MQT COUNTY IN MORE FOCUSED LLVL               
CNVGC BTWN DVLPG LAND BREEZE AND VORTEX LIKELY TO DVLP OVER SCNTRL              
LK SUP PER HIER RES NAM/REG GEM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS. IF THIS VORTEX            
DOES NOT DVLP...MORE ELY FLOW MAY BRING SOME HEAVIER LES BACK INTO              
THE KEWEENAW ZNS. BUT FCST VORTEX DVLPMNT WOULD INCRS SHEAR AND                 
MORE UNFVRBL NE WIND COMPONENT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO WI/MI WAS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD             
THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL               
UPSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW                 
LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILED BTWN SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LOW             
PRES OVER WRN PA. THIS HAS KEPT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI THIS            
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST BANDS WERE NOTED OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY             
AND THROUGH KEWEENAW BAY TO NEAR LANSE. VIS AND RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST             
WEAK TROF HAS ALSO HELPED KEEP FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR ERN                 
MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                            
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER             
THE NRN PLAINS AND THE NRN ONTARIO HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE                       
EAST...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS HANDLED THE              
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD PATTERN AFFECTING THE LES BEST. SO...EXPECT THE            
LES TO CONTINUE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED NE            
FLOW BEFORE SHIFT TO E AND ESE WINDS LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH MAINLY             
MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3             
INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KEWEENAW               
BAY AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NEGAUNEE TO SKANDIA. WITH THE              
TREND MORE TOWARD VARIABLE OR ESE WINDS LATE...LES SHOULD SHIFT                 
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS              
FOR THIS AREA...GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS AND INCONSISTENT MODEL               
PERFORMANCE.                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH IS                   
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO W UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW               
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO.                                         
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN                
UPPER LOW CURRENTY OVR THE NRN US ROCKIES REGION ARRIVES OVR THE UPR            
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TRACK OF H7-H5 LOWS              
ACROSS NRN WI COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FM EAST             
TO WEST ORIENTED SFC TROUGH FAVORS CWA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS              
REALLY IS NOT IN QUESTION. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.                     
EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS PRIMARY JET                 
ENERGY IS SLIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW...KEEPING THE UPR LOW                
MORE OPEN...AND NOT FAVORING SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING ON THE LARGE                 
SCALE. LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONE...NAM/GFS FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...IMT-ESC-ISQ...SHOW                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT THE MAJORIFY OF THE STRONGER OMEGA/LIFT IS               
LOCATED ABOVE THE MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SETUP FAVORS A WEALTH OF            
HIGHER DENSITY CRYSTALS INSTEAD OF LOW DENSITY DENDRITES. USED SNOW             
RATIOS FM 10-15:1. SUPPOSE THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL OF LK                
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN WITH ERLY FLOW. NAM REALLY HINTED AT                
THIS POTENTIAL BUT THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR IN THE                
SUB H85 LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. BASICALLY...DUE TO QUICK               
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS...SEEMS LIKE THIS IS ON            
TRACK TO BE A HIGH-END ADVY EVENT AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN ADVY              
SNOW WILL BE WELCOME OVR THE SRN CWA GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT                  
PLAUGING THAT AREA.                                                             
ONE THING TO WATCH THOUGH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW A SLOWER                  
MOVEMENT TO THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH/SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN A LONGER             
DURATION OF SNOW. IF THESE FEATURES HANG UP MORE...THEN THERE WOULD             
NEED TO BE AN INCREASE OF SNOW FOR THE SERN/ERN CWA. AS ALLUDED TO              
BEFORE...DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...FAVORED             
QUICKER SOLUTION AND NOT AS MUCH SNOW                                           
MAIN IMPACT FM SYSTEM AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THE INCREASING LAKE              
ENHANCEMENT FOR WRN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE NCNTRL SUNDAY INTO               
SUNDAY NIGHT. LEADING OFF...ERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS                 
AROUND -15C SATURDAY NIGHT TARGET THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE                
HEAVIEST SNOW. UNLIKE THE SRN CWA...SOUNDINGS OVR THE KEWEENAW ALSO             
INDICATE MOST OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE.               
H95 CONVERGENCE INCREASES SATURDAY EVENING AND PERISTS INTO SUNDAY              
MORNING. LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SFC-H85 WINDS             
BACK MORE NRLY WHICH BRINGS FAR WRN CWA AND NCNTRL CWA INTO FOLD FOR            
HEAVIER LK EFFECT. SOUNDINGS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT AND STRONG OMEGA/LIFT RIGHT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH                
ZONE. CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE MQT SOUDNINGS...               
SUGGESTING INTENSE SNOW RATES AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS...PROBABLY                   
SURGING TOWARD 30:1 BY SUNDAY AFTN. MAIN NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT               
ACCUMS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE FRATURING OF SNOWFLAKES AS WINDS IN            
THE MIXED LAYER ARE INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS. STILL...UPSLOPE AREAS            
OF WRN AND NCNTRL CWA SHOULD DO WELL WITH 350-010 WIND DIRECTION.               
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LK EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS/BLSN JUSTIFIES            
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH KEWEENAW AND FOR MARQUETTE               
COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS AWAY FM THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BLO WARNING              
CRITERIA AND ANTICIPATE ADVY NEEDED ACROSS REST OF THE CWA. IF THE              
UPR LOW SLOWS DOWN THOUGH...WE WOULD NEED WATCHES FOR MUCH OF THE               
SOUTH AND ERN CWA.                                                              
EXPECT LINGERING LK EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL              
STEADILY BACK SW...ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO BECOME MORE TRANSIENT.              
BY LATE AFTN...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO RESIDE OVR THE KEWEENAW               
PENINSULA. WRLY FLOW LK EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT OVR               
THE KEWEENAW. THOUGH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING                
MOISTURE WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EJECTING INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.              
HPC PREFEREED THE WEAKER/SLOWER GFS AS THE ECMWF WAS A STRONGER AND             
PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER. NUDGED POPS UPWARD EAST DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE             
TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK             
MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW/LK EFFECT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE THE              
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS ALONG LK                  
SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. INTERESTING THAT NOW THE 12Z             
GFS AND ECMWF POINT TO ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SYSTEM            
SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO              
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ADDED BENEFIT FM ONSHORE FLOW.                               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CROSSES THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS               
DAY. OTHER THAN LINGERING LK EFFECT FOR W/SW FLOW AREAS EARLY                   
ON...SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST                   
THOUGH. BY FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVR WRN CONUS WHILE RIDGE              
POPS UP OVR ERN UNITED STATES. SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER LOW              
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM                              
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN THAT A WOUND UP SFC LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD UPR MI              
FRI/SAT. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD HAVE MIXED PCPN CONCERNS AS WARMER              
AIR STREAMS INTO ERN HALF OF UPR MI. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE                
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN QUITE YET AS A COUPLE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEMS THIS MONTH WERE FORECAST TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN ENDED              
UP HAPPENING. NO MATTER WHAT... PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE WITH WRN                   
TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PERSISTING AND SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS                
AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2008.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO TREND TOWARD VFR EARLY THIS                
MRNG WITH FCST WEAKENING/VEERING WINDS TO MORE E CAUSING LES TO                 
FOCUS CLOSER TO THE LK SUP SHORE. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON             
SAT AFTN WITH UPSLOPE SE FLOW OFF LK MI. ARRIVAL OF SN AHEAD OF NEXT            
LO PRES TO IMPACT THE UPR GRT LKS WL BRING A RETURN OF IFR VSBY THIS            
EVNG.                                                                           
UNFAVORABLE NE FLOW AT CMX WL TEND TO VEER MORE E EARLY THIS                    
MRNG...SO EXPECT SOME LES TO DVLP TOWARD SUNRISE. BUT DVLPMNT OF                
VORTEX NEAR MQT WL LIKELY DISRUPT THIS FLOW/INCRS SHEAR AND KEEP LES            
INTENSITY IN CHECK. OVERALL...PLAN ON PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS OVERNGT             
WITH LOWER MVFR VSBYS PSBL AFT 09Z. LATER THIS MRNG...HIER RES                  
MODELS SHOW VORTEX WEAKENING WITH A PD OF UNIDIRECTIONAL ESE                    
SFC-H925 FLOW CAUSING A BETTER CHC OF LES AND IFR VSBYS. AS THIS                
FLOW VEERS MORE SE IN THE AFTN WITH SHORTER OVERWATER FETCH/                    
DOWNSLOPE OFF HURON MTNS...SUSPECT LES INTENSITY TO DIMINISH.                   
ARRIVAL OF SN AHEAD OF NEXT LO PRES TO IMPACT THE UPR GRT LKS WL                
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS                   
EVENING...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NRLY GALE FORCE WINDS             
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA                     
SATURDAY EVENING CONSOLIDATES INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND DEEPENS              
AS IT CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION TO THE GALES FROM THE LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS COLD AIR IS                 
DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. LOOK FOR THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY            
AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACK WESTERLY FOR                        
MONDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS.             
NO OTHER GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY                  
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.                                                      
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ004.                 
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR MIZ002-009.                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ005.                  
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING               
     FOR MIZ005.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR                   
     LSZ264-266.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LSZ162-             
     263.                                                                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
710 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OPTED TO ISSUE LES WRNG FOR WRN ALGER COUNTY AND EXTEND WRNG FOR MQT            
COUNTY/ADVY FOR BARAGA COUNTY WITH PERSISTENT...WELL DVLPD LES BAND             
NOTED JUST OFFSHORE STREAMING INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/ERN MQT COUNTY.             
88D ESTIMATES SHOW 0.08"/HR WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN UNDER THIS BAND.              
CONSIDERING OBSVD 40:1-50:1 SN/WATER RATIOS AND NEARLY                          
UNIDIRECTIONAL NE FLOW SHOWN ON MQT VWP THRU 5K-6K FT MSL...SUSPECT             
BAND WL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AND              
DROP SN AT THE RATE OF 1-2"/HR AT SOME PLACES. AS SFC-H925 WINDS                
DIMINISH TOWARD 06Z AND VEER MORE E...SUSPECT BANDS WL WEAKEN WITH              
SHSN CONSOLIDATING NEAR LK SUP IN MQT COUNTY IN MORE FOCUSED LLVL               
CNVGC BTWN DVLPG LAND BREEZE AND VORTEX LIKELY TO DVLP OVER SCNTRL              
LK SUP PER HIER RES NAM/REG GEM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS. IF THIS VORTEX            
DOES NOT DVLP...MORE ELY FLOW MAY BRING SOME HEAVIER LES BACK INTO              
THE KEWEENAW ZNS. BUT FCST VORTEX DVLPMNT WOULD INCRS SHEAR AND                 
MORE UNFVRBL NE WIND COMPONENT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO WI/MI WAS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD             
THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL               
UPSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW                 
LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILED BTWN SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LOW             
PRES OVER WRN PA. THIS HAS KEPT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI THIS            
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST BANDS WERE NOTED OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY             
AND THROUGH KEWEENAW BAY TO NEAR LANSE. VIS AND RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST             
WEAK TROF HAS ALSO HELPED KEEP FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR ERN                 
MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                            
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER             
THE NRN PLAINS AND THE NRN ONTARIO HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE                       
EAST...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS HANDLED THE              
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD PATTERN AFFECTING THE LES BEST. SO...EXPECT THE            
LES TO CONTINUE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED NE            
FLOW BEFORE SHIFT TO E AND ESE WINDS LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH MAINLY             
MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3             
INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KEWEENAW               
BAY AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NEGAUNEE TO SKANDIA. WITH THE              
TREND MORE TOWARD VARIABLE OR ESE WINDS LATE...LES SHOULD SHIFT                 
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS              
FOR THIS AREA...GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS AND INCONSISTENT MODEL               
PERFORMANCE.                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH IS                   
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO W UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW               
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO.                                         
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN                
UPPER LOW CURRENTY OVR THE NRN US ROCKIES REGION ARRIVES OVR THE UPR            
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TRACK OF H7-H5 LOWS              
ACROSS NRN WI COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FM EAST             
TO WEST ORIENTED SFC TROUGH FAVORS CWA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS              
REALLY IS NOT IN QUESTION. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.                     
EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS PRIMARY JET                 
ENERGY IS SLIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW...KEEPING THE UPR LOW                
MORE OPEN...AND NOT FAVORING SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING ON THE LARGE                 
SCALE. LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONE...NAM/GFS FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...IMT-ESC-ISQ...SHOW                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT THE MAJORIFY OF THE STRONGER OMEGA/LIFT IS               
LOCATED ABOVE THE MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SETUP FAVORS A WEALTH OF            
HIGHER DENSITY CRYSTALS INSTEAD OF LOW DENSITY DENDRITES. USED SNOW             
RATIOS FM 10-15:1. SUPPOSE THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL OF LK                
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN WITH ERLY FLOW. NAM REALLY HINTED AT                
THIS POTENTIAL BUT THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR IN THE                
SUB H85 LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. BASICALLY...DUE TO QUICK               
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS...SEEMS LIKE THIS IS ON            
TRACK TO BE A HIGH-END ADVY EVENT AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN ADVY              
SNOW WILL BE WELCOME OVR THE SRN CWA GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT                  
PLAUGING THAT AREA.                                                             
ONE THING TO WATCH THOUGH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW A SLOWER                  
MOVEMENT TO THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH/SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN A LONGER             
DURATION OF SNOW. IF THESE FEATURES HANG UP MORE...THEN THERE WOULD             
NEED TO BE AN INCREASE OF SNOW FOR THE SERN/ERN CWA. AS ALLUDED TO              
BEFORE...DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...FAVORED             
QUICKER SOLUTION AND NOT AS MUCH SNOW                                           
MAIN IMPACT FM SYSTEM AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THE INCREASING LAKE              
ENHANCEMENT FOR WRN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE NCNTRL SUNDAY INTO               
SUNDAY NIGHT. LEADING OFF...ERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS                 
AROUND -15C SATURDAY NIGHT TARGET THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE                
HEAVIEST SNOW. UNLIKE THE SRN CWA...SOUNDINGS OVR THE KEWEENAW ALSO             
INDICATE MOST OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE.               
H95 CONVERGENCE INCREASES SATURDAY EVENING AND PERISTS INTO SUNDAY              
MORNING. LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SFC-H85 WINDS             
BACK MORE NRLY WHICH BRINGS FAR WRN CWA AND NCNTRL CWA INTO FOLD FOR            
HEAVIER LK EFFECT. SOUNDINGS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT AND STRONG OMEGA/LIFT RIGHT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH                
ZONE. CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE MQT SOUDNINGS...               
SUGGESTING INTENSE SNOW RATES AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS...PROBABLY                   
SURGING TOWARD 30:1 BY SUNDAY AFTN. MAIN NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT               
ACCUMS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE FRATURING OF SNOWFLAKES AS WINDS IN            
THE MIXED LAYER ARE INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS. STILL...UPSLOPE AREAS            
OF WRN AND NCNTRL CWA SHOULD DO WELL WITH 350-010 WIND DIRECTION.               
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LK EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS/BLSN JUSTIFIES            
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH KEWEENAW AND FOR MARQUETTE               
COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS AWAY FM THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BLO WARNING              
CRITERIA AND ANTICIPATE ADVY NEEDED ACROSS REST OF THE CWA. IF THE              
UPR LOW SLOWS DOWN THOUGH...WE WOULD NEED WATCHES FOR MUCH OF THE               
SOUTH AND ERN CWA.                                                              
EXPECT LINGERING LK EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL              
STEADILY BACK SW...ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO BECOME MORE TRANSIENT.              
BY LATE AFTN...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO RESIDE OVR THE KEWEENAW               
PENINSULA. WRLY FLOW LK EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT OVR               
THE KEWEENAW. THOUGH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING                
MOISTURE WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EJECTING INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.              
HPC PREFEREED THE WEAKER/SLOWER GFS AS THE ECMWF WAS A STRONGER AND             
PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER. NUDGED POPS UPWARD EAST DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE             
TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK             
MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW/LK EFFECT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE THE              
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS ALONG LK                  
SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. INTERESTING THAT NOW THE 12Z             
GFS AND ECMWF POINT TO ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SYSTEM            
SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO              
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ADDED BENEFIT FM ONSHORE FLOW.                               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CROSSES THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS               
DAY. OTHER THAN LINGERING LK EFFECT FOR W/SW FLOW AREAS EARLY                   
ON...SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST                   
THOUGH. BY FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVR WRN CONUS WHILE RIDGE              
POPS UP OVR ERN UNITED STATES. SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER LOW              
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM                              
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN THAT A WOUND UP SFC LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD UPR MI              
FRI/SAT. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD HAVE MIXED PCPN CONCERNS AS WARMER              
AIR STREAMS INTO ERN HALF OF UPR MI. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE                
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN QUITE YET AS A COUPLE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEMS THIS MONTH WERE FORECAST TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN ENDED              
UP HAPPENING. NO MATTER WHAT... PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE WITH WRN                   
TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PERSISTING AND SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS                
AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2008.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO TREND TOWARD VFR BY LATE EVNG WITH              
FCST WEAKENING/VEERING WINDS TO MORE E CAUSING LES TO FOCUS CLOSER              
TO THE LK SUP SHORE. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON SAT AFTN WITH            
UPSLOPE SE FLOW OFF LK MI.                                                      
UNFAVORABLE NE FLOW AT CMX THIS EVNG WL TEND TO VEER MORE E                     
OVERNGT...SO EXPECT SOME LES TO DVLP LATER. BUT DVLPMNT OF VORTEX               
NEAR MQT WL LIKELY DISRUPT THIS FLOW/INCRS SHEAR AND LES INTENSITY.             
OVERALL...PLAN ON PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS OVERNGT WITH LOWER MVFR                 
VSBYS LIKELY AFT 06Z. ON SAT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW VORTEX WEAKENING            
WITH A PD OF UNIDIRECTIONAL ESE SFC-H925 FLOW CAUSING A BETTER CHC              
OF LES AND IFR VSBYS. AS THIS FLOW VEERS MORE SE LATER IN THE DAY               
WITH SHORTER OVERWATER FETCH/DOWNSLOPE OFF HURON MTNS...SUSPECT LES             
INTENSITY WL DIMINISH A BIT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS                   
EVENING...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NRLY GALE FORCE WINDS             
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA                     
SATURDAY EVENING CONSOLIDATES INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND DEEPENS              
AS IT CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION TO THE GALES FROM THE LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS COLD AIR IS                 
DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. LOOK FOR THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY            
AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACK WESTERLY FOR                        
MONDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS.             
NO OTHER GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.             
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY                  
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.                                                      
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ004.                 
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR MIZ002-009.                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ005.                  
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING               
     FOR MIZ005.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR                   
     LSZ264-266.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LSZ162-             
     263.                                                                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS...JLB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
405 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO WI/MI WAS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD             
THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL               
UPSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW                 
LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILED BTWN SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LOW             
PRES OVER WRN PA. THIS HAS KEPT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI THIS            
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST BANDS WERE NOTED OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY             
AND THROUGH KEWEENAW BAY TO NEAR LANSE. VIS AND RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST             
WEAK TROF HAS ALSO HELPED KEEP FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR ERN                 
MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                            
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER             
THE NRN PLAINS AND THE NRN ONTARIO HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE                       
EAST...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS HANDLED THE              
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD PATTERN AFFECTING THE LES BEST. SO...EXPECT THE            
LES TO CONTINUE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED NE            
FLOW BEFORE SHIFT TO E AND ESE WINDS LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH MAINLY             
MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3             
INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KEWEENAW               
BAY AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NEGAUNEE TO SKANDIA. WITH THE              
TREND MORE TOWARD VARIABLE OR ESE WINDS LATE...LES SHOULD SHIFT                 
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS              
FOR THIS AREA...GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS AND INCONSISTENT MODEL               
PERFORMANCE.                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH IS                   
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO W UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW               
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO.                                         
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN                
UPPER LOW CURRENTY OVR THE NRN US ROCKIES REGION ARRIVES OVR THE UPR            
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TRACK OF H7-H5 LOWS              
ACROSS NRN WI COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FM EAST             
TO WEST ORIENTED SFC TROUGH FAVORS CWA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS              
REALLY IS NOT IN QUESTION. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.                     
EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS PRIMARY JET                 
ENERGY IS SLIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW...KEEPING THE UPR LOW                
MORE OPEN...AND NOT FAVORING SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING ON THE LARGE                 
SCALE. LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONE...NAM/GFS FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...IMT-ESC-ISQ...SHOW                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT THE MAJORIFY OF THE STRONGER OMEGA/LIFT IS               
LOCATED ABOVE THE MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SETUP FAVORS A WEALTH OF            
HIGHER DENSITY CRYSTALS INSTEAD OF LOW DENSITY DENDRITES. USED SNOW             
RATIOS FM 10-15:1. SUPPOSE THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL OF LK                
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN WITH ERLY FLOW. NAM REALLY HINTED AT                
THIS POTENTIAL BUT THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR IN THE                
SUB H85 LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. BASICALLY...DUE TO QUICK               
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS...SEEMS LIKE THIS IS ON            
TRACK TO BE A HIGH-END ADVY EVENT AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN ADVY              
SNOW WILL BE WELCOME OVR THE SRN CWA GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT                  
PLAUGING THAT AREA.                                                             
ONE THING TO WATCH THOUGH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW A SLOWER                  
MOVEMENT TO THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH/SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN A LONGER             
DURATION OF SNOW. IF THESE FEATURES HANG UP MORE...THEN THERE WOULD             
NEED TO BE AN INCREASE OF SNOW FOR THE SERN/ERN CWA. AS ALLUDED TO              
BEFORE...DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...FAVORED             
QUICKER SOLUTION AND NOT AS MUCH SNOW                                           
MAIN IMPACT FM SYSTEM AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THE INCREASING LAKE              
ENHANCEMENT FOR WRN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE NCNTRL SUNDAY INTO               
SUNDAY NIGHT. LEADING OFF...ERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS                 
AROUND -15C SATURDAY NIGHT TARGET THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE                
HEAVIEST SNOW. UNLIKE THE SRN CWA...SOUNDINGS OVR THE KEWEENAW ALSO             
INDICATE MOST OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE.               
H95 CONVERGENCE INCREASES SATURDAY EVENING AND PERISTS INTO SUNDAY              
MORNING. LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SFC-H85 WINDS             
BACK MORE NRLY WHICH BRINGS FAR WRN CWA AND NCNTRL CWA INTO FOLD FOR            
HEAVIER LK EFFECT. SOUNDINGS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT AND STRONG OMEGA/LIFT RIGHT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH                
ZONE. CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE MQT SOUDNINGS...               
SUGGESTING INTENSE SNOW RATES AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS...PROBABLY                   
SURGING TOWARD 30:1 BY SUNDAY AFTN. MAIN NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT               
ACCUMS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE FRATURING OF SNOWFLAKES AS WINDS IN            
THE MIXED LAYER ARE INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS. STILL...UPSLOPE AREAS            
OF WRN AND NCNTRL CWA SHOULD DO WELL WITH 350-010 WIND DIRECTION.               
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LK EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS/BLSN JUSTIFIES            
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH KEWEENAW AND FOR MARQUETTE               
COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS AWAY FM THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BLO WARNING              
CRITERIA AND ANTICIPATE ADVY NEEDED ACROSS REST OF THE CWA. IF THE              
UPR LOW SLOWS DOWN THOUGH...WE WOULD NEED WATCHES FOR MUCH OF THE               
SOUTH AND ERN CWA.                                                              
EXPECT LINGERING LK EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL              
STEADILY BACK SW...ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO BECOME MORE TRANSIENT.              
BY LATE AFTN...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO RESIDE OVR THE KEWEENAW               
PENINSULA. WRLY FLOW LK EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT OVR               
THE KEWEENAW. THOUGH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING                
MOISTURE WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EJECTING INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.              
HPC PREFEREED THE WEAKER/SLOWER GFS AS THE ECMWF WAS A STRONGER AND             
PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER. NUDGED POPS UPWARD EAST DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE             
TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK             
MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW/LK EFFECT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE THE              
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS ALONG LK                  
SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. INTERESTING THAT NOW THE 12Z             
GFS AND ECMWF POINT TO ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SYSTEM            
SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO              
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ADDED BENEFIT FM ONSHORE FLOW.                               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CROSSES THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS               
DAY. OTHER THAN LINGERING LK EFFECT FOR W/SW FLOW AREAS EARLY                   
ON...SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST THOUGH.           
BY FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVR WRN CONUS WHILE RIDGE POPS UP              
OVR ERN UNITED STATES. SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE             
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN THAT A             
WOUND UP SFC LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD UPR MI FRI/SAT. IF THIS OCCURS...             
WOULD HAVE MIXED PCPN CONCERNS AS WARMER AIR STREAMS INTO ERN HALF              
OF UPR MI. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN QUITE YET             
AS A COUPLE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS MONTH WERE FORECAST              
TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN ENDED UP HAPPENING. NO MATTER WHAT...               
PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE WITH WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PERSISTING AND                   
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE                  
FINAL WEEK OF 2008.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...ENE FLOW WILL               
BRING OCNL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO KSAW. WINDS TURN                       
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD               
HELP END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GO TO VFR.                
AT KCMX...NORTHEAST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT            
18 HOURS...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LES THERE. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT              
AS THE WINDS TURN EAST AND EVENTUALLY SE...THE BAND THAT IS                     
CURRENTLY AFFECTING MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD IMPACT CMX...BRINGING               
VSBYS DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS                   
EVENING...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NRLY GALE FORCE WINDS             
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA                     
SATURDAY EVENING CONSOLIDATES INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND DEEPENS              
AS IT CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION TO THE GALES FROM THE LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS COLD AIR IS                 
DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. LOOK FOR THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY            
AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACK WESTERLY FOR                        
MONDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS.             
NO OTHER GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY                  
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.                                                      
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004.             
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR MIZ002-009.                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005.              
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING               
     FOR MIZ005.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR                   
     LSZ264-266.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LSZ162-             
     263.                                                                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JLB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS OF PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHSN OVER NRN                    
KEWEENAW COUNTY EARLY THIS EVNG WITH REPORTS OF AS MUCH AS AN                   
INCH/HR...POSTED AN LES ADVY FOR THAT AREA...BUT ONLY THRU MIDNGT AS            
OBSVD NE FLOW S OF BLDG HI PRES IN SRN ONTARIO AND N OF SWD MOVING              
LO PRES TROF IS NOT FVRBL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER LES. ALSO OPTED TO             
EXTEND GOING LES ADVY FOR NRN CMX COUNTY AND ADD AN ADVY FOR NRN                
BARAGA/MQT COUNTIES THRU THE DAY ON FRI WITH DVLPG LLVL ENE FLOW IN             
THE WAKE OF TROF PASSAGE TO THE S. LATEST 88D RADAR SHOWS BAND OF               
SHSN ALG LO PRES TROF APRCHG NRN MQT COUNTY WITH SOME REFLECTIVITIES            
AOA 30 DBZ. WITH PERSISTENT ENE H925 FLOW THRU FRI AS SHOWN BY 18Z              
GFS AS WELL AS LO H85 TEMPS ARND -15C MAINTAINING FVRBL OVERWATER               
INSTABILITY...SETUP SEEMS GOOD FOR LES FM S OF CMX AT THE END OF                
FETCH IN KEWEENAW BAY TO THE HURON MTNS AND NRN MQT COUNTY. FVRBL               
THERMAL PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH/LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON 20Z                  
TAMDAR SDNG FM CMX AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE ENE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LO            
PRES TROF PASSAGE/LLVL CNVGC INCRSD CONFIDENCE THERE WL BE SOME ADVY            
SN AMTS IN THIS AREA BTWN CMX AND BARAGA AS WELL AS THE HURON MTNS              
AND ISHPEMING/NEGAUNEE.                                                         
WITH CLR SKIES...TEMPS ALSO NOSEDIVED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FCST OVER            
THE INTERIOR. SO LOWERED GOING FCST MINS TO REFLECT SUBSTANTIAL                 
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS WITH LGT WINDS. ARRIVAL OF MID/HI CLD SHOWN               
SWEEPING NEWD ON STLT IMAGERY AS WELL AS WSHFT TO MORE NE IN THE                
WAKE OF LO PRES TROF PASAGE AND OFF THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK              
SUP WL CAUSE EARLY LO TEMPS TO RISE THRU THE NGT.                               
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WRLY MID/UPPER                
LEVEL NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THE REAR                 
FLANK OF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CANADA. A SHEARED SHRTWV TROF VCNTY           
CYQT WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD WHILE A STRONG SRN STREAM SHRTWV WA            
LIFTING NE FROM CO. AT THE SFC...A WEST TO EAST TROUGH EXTENDED                 
THROUGH THE NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG              
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WHICH SUPPORTED A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRES                    
STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE ONTARIO SHRTWV.                                          
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                              
EXPECT THE LES BAND TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING              
THROUGH KCMX AND HOUGHTON WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL.                
SNOWFALL RATES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE MULTIBAND LES DEVELOPS IN             
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOWEVER ON HOW FAR AND              
HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.               
THE 12Z/18Z LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW SUGGESTS A STRONG ENOUGH LAND                  
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BAND MAINLY ALONG OR NORTH OF M-28 WHILE THE               
12Z/18Z NAM ALLOWS NE FLOW TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. FCST LEANS              
MORE TOWARD THE LCL WRF/ARW BUT STILL KEEPS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW                 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION VCNTY MARQUETTE.                                         
THE NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PCPN AMOUNTS/COVERAGE             
TO THE NORTH OF THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE               
SRN GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY SOUTH OF US-2 WITH POTENTIAL               
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA VCNTY             
KMNM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY A CHANCE OF                
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH.                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL DIP INTO                    
NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE ADVANCING OUT OF THE                  
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE                
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE               
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL              
MANITOBA...ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST                      
MINNESOTA. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE            
LOW. LAKE SUPERIOR-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL AROUND 22C...INDICATIVE OF              
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THUS WILL KEEP LES GOING MAINLY FOR THE                  
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY. A                
WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...THE            
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MSP AREA AND WEAKENS WHILE STARTING              
TO MERGE WITH A STRONGER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. COOL 850MB                      
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -12C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED                        
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY               
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE                 
SNOWS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART CLOSER TO THE LOW.               
THE SURFACE LOWS WILL MERGE AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS THE RESIDUE OF THE MERGER OF THE             
LOWS...WILL EXTEND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND REMAIN SOUTH              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE AN EASTERLY WIND ACROSS LAKE              
SUPERIOR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME LES ENHANCEMENT MAINLY OVER THE              
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                      
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE SLOWS AND MOVES TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND              
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER            
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH APPROACHES AND THE LOW             
MOVES EAST. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH. THE COLD                  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE AND WINDS BACKING NORTH WILL CAUSE LES TO            
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.                                                   
THE MID RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL. HPC RECOMMENDS A BLEND OF               
00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS. THIS APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN GLOBAL              
AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 6. THUS PLAN TO STAY CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL                  
AND/OR A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A              
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE OZARK            
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH              
BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S SHOULD REMAIN AROUND             
24C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF               
SNOW WITH SOME LES ENHANCEMENT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST...IN                      
PARTICULAR THE KEWEENAW PENINUSLA.                                              
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE EAST OF THE U.P. ON MONDAY. THE BROAD               
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL                 
CAUSE THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK WEST. THE DELTA-T`S WILL REMAIN             
AROUND 20C. CONDITIONS SUPPORT KEEPING THE SOME LES GOING MAINLY                
OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. DRIER CONDITIONS,,,LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT AND WINDS BACKING WEST WILL REDUCED SNOWFALL.                           
THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY             
NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC                   
STATES...WHILE A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TOGETHER THESE            
SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTH. DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND               
18C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LES TO THE                 
SOUTHERN U.P. MAINLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW               
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE                  
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY PUSHING TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE              
FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM              
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS               
THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL            
DELTA-T`S OF AROUND 20C WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS              
AGAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG TO GIVE WAY TO AN               
IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS LES BAND               
OVER NRN MQT COUNTY SINKS TO THE S. HOWEVER...SUSPECT DENSE COLD AIR            
OVER THE INTERIOR WL HOLD UP THE SWD PROGRESS OF THIS BAND...SO                 
LOWER CONDITIONS WL LIKELY BE ONLY INTERMITTENT. AS LARGER SCALE                
LLVL FLOW TENDS TO BACK A BIT MORE NE THIS AFTN/EVNG...THINK                    
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WL DVLP IN THE AFTN AND PERSIST THRU THE            
END OF THE FCST PD.                                                             
AT KCMX...CURRENT UNFVRBL NE WIND WL LIKELY MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR            
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODELS               
SHOW BACKING LLVL FLOW AFT ABOUT 09Z OR SO. WITH MORE OF AN ELY                 
COMPONENT...LES AND LOWER VSBY/CIGS WL LIKELY MIGRATE BACK INTO CMX.            
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SWITCH BACK TO VFR WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW            
TO MORE NE ON FRI.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AS LOW                  
PRESSURE DEEPENS FORMS OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO             
VALLEY BY FRI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS                 
SHOULD RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT            
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL IN WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                      
SATURDAY...NORTHEAST TO NORTH GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVR MUCH OF THE                
LAKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LIFTS             
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST                   
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ004-005.                                                     
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ003.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001.              
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 1 PM                 
     EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.                                     
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/                 
     FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.                                                     
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1204 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008/ FORECAST                 
CONCERN NEAR TERM...WINTER WX ADV OVER SOUTHERN CWA. NICE SHORT                 
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING PER WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY. HEAVIER SNOW BAND LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH 600 MB              
FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PER LATEST RUC. SNOW SHOULDNT MAKE IT TOO               
MUCH FARTHER THAN THIS BANDED REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SIG                   
DEVELOPMENT INTO METRO PROPER. REMOVED A TIER OF COUNTIES AS BEST               
ACCUMS SOUTH. 5-6 INCHES ALREADY INTO WARNED AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF                
INTERSTATE 90. SHOULD SEE SOME 8-9 TOTALS CLOSE TO IOWA BORDER.                 
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT INTO                    
WESTERN CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS              
NORTHWEST US NOW...AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO DAKOTAS                  
LATER TONIGHT. FOLLOWED A SLOWER 00Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THE SFC                      
FRONT...BUT STILL SHOULD BE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SAT.                 
HAVE OPTED KEEP THE BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR                       
NOW...BUT APPEARS BEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE STRONG               
WINDS...AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW...AND PREVIOUS               
LIGHT SNOWS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THAT              
ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES/ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL MOST LIKELY               
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.                                                   
SNOW TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF CWA WELL                 
INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST DURING THIS                  
PERIOD. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER SUNDAY AND                 
MONDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS BECOMING A PROBLEM. THEREAFTER...GFS AND              
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS FOR                    
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH TIME AND                    
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES ABOUT MORE ACTIVE. 00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED             
WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US AND STORMS EJECTED                   
NORTHEAST TOWARD UPPER MIDWEST EVERY 36 HOURS OR SO.  STAY TUNED.               
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
BUSY FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL CONCERNS REVOLVING AROUND                
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO SNOW RETURNING                
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.                                  
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING                     
BKN025-035 SKIES. HAZY CONDITIONS WITH 5 TO 9SM VISBY ALSO                      
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA. BANDS OF MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 7000 AND                
10000 FEET CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. WINDS ARE LESS               
THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS BECOMING              
PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 1500 TO 2500             
FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW                      
PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS TO THE AREA.                                            
NEXT CONCERN IS ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.               
TIMING OF ONSET IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING                 
NOT ALL THAT HIGH. A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER WESTERN                
MN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL TRIGGER                      
SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT IN WEST CENT MN...PROBABLY              
IN THE 07-10Z TIME FRAME AT KAXN AND IN THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME AT                
KSTC AND KRWF. SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN MID MORNING AT KMSP AND KRNH               
AND BY MIDDAY AT KEAU. TIMING OF ARRIVAL IS LEAST CERTAIN AT THESE              
SITES AND AM CONCERNED THE ONSET MAY BE QUICKER THAN WHAT IS NOW                
IN THE TAF. ONCE SNOW STARTS VISBYS BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 1/2 SM ARE                
LIKELY WITH CIGS AROUND AND BELOW 1000 FT. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME               
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING               
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING WEST TO LATE AFTERNOON               
EAST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING BRINGING AT LEAST SOME BLOWING SNOW.                
DRY AIR QUICKLY WRAPS IN SATURDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOW               
TO WIND DOWN BUT LOW CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO                  
AROUND 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING    
WEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING EAST AS SOME SNOWFALL SETTLES INTO                     
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENT WI WITH 20 TO 30 KTS WINDS                             
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE A REAL                 
CONCERN EVEN IF LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALLS SUNDAY.                            
WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENT MN                   
INCLUDING KRWF. THANKS TO ZMP CWSU FOR COORDINATION. ..MDB..                    
ZMP CWSU THOUGHTS INCLUDED...                                                   
MAIN ISSUE EARLY IN TAF WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATOCU WILL                   
PERSIST BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESS SYSTEM AND NEXT ONE MOVING IN FM              
DKTS FOR SAT & SUN SNOW EVENT. NARROW BROKEN ENE-WSW STCU DECK OVER             
MSP AT 16Z PROBABLY GOING SCT AROUND 19Z FOLLOWED BY MID BKN-OVC                
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WARM ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS ALREADY                
SPREADING TO SW MN. MORE LOW CLOUDS RETURNING QUICKLY 00Z TIME FRAME            
AS LOW LEVEL SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER DKTS AND WARM ADVECTION AND                  
RETURN TO ESE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BRINGS BACK STRATUS DECK FOR                   
OVERNIGHT. SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL 15-18Z SAT BUT CEILINGS DOWN NEAR               
1700 FT BEFORE THAT AND INTO IFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW 18-00Z. WIND                
SHOULD REMAIN E TO ESE OVRNGT AND MOST OF SAT WITH DIRECTION SWITCH             
TO WSW-W AND SPEED INCREASE AT END OF 30HR TAF...00Z.                           
..AJB..                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-                  
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-               
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-                  
     SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                    
     WRIGHT.                                                                    
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-LAC QUI PARLE-                     
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-                   
     YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                           
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-                
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/MDB/AJB                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH               
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS                           
PREDOMINATING AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR SUGGESTED AS WELL...                   
PARTICULARLY FROM MOS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW CURRENTLY                
SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA... MAINLY IMPACTING                  
KEAU... BUT ALSO HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON KMSP AND POSSIBLY KRNH.               
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING SOME IFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO KEAU                 
EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR AT KMSP FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR                   
SO... BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY AS THE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE                 
SEEN OVER IOWA CONTINUE EASTWARD. IN ITS WAKE... THERE IS SOME                  
UNCERTAINLY WITH THE CLOUD COVER SINCE THE MODELS CERTAINLY POINT               
TOWARD THINGS SATURATING IN THE 1-3K FT LAYER DURING THE MORNING                
HOURS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WITH A LOW LEVEL COL MOVING IN AND A               
FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE... THIS SEEMS                  
LIKE A REASONABLE IDEA... AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME EXPANSION NOTED               
IN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE              
PAST FEW HOURS PER THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY... SO WILL               
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS OVERALL TREND TO CLOUDY MVFR CEILINGS AT              
ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY... WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST AS WELL. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SUB-1K FT CEILINGS AS                    
SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE... BUT THAT IS A POSSIBILITY              
THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE... LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY                
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT                 
SYSTEM WHICH WILL WORK TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LATER                    
TONIGHT. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM OUT OF ALL BUT               
THE LONGER KMSP TAF... WHERE SOME MENTION IS INCLUDED TOWARD THE                
END OF THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW LEVEL INVERTED                    
TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 343 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008/                                             
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WINTER WX ADV OVER SOUTHERN CWA. NICE              
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING PER                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HEAVIER SNOW BAND LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH               
600 MB FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PER LATEST RUC. SNOW SHOULDNT MAKE               
IT TOO MUCH FARTHER THAN THIS BANDED REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT                
SIG DEVELOPMENT INTO METRO PROPER. REMOVED A TIER OF COUNTIES AS                
BEST ACCUMS SOUTH. 5-6 INCHES ALREADY INTO WARNED AREA ALONG/SOUTH              
OF INTERSTATE 90. SHOULD SEE SOME 8-9 TOTALS CLOSE TO IOWA BORDER.              
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT INTO                    
WESTERN CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS              
NORTHWEST US NOW...AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO DAKOTAS                  
LATER TONIGHT. FOLLOWED A SLOWER 00Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THE SFC                      
FRONT...BUT STILL SHOULD BE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SAT.                 
HAVE OPTED KEEP THE BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR                       
NOW...BUT APPEARS BEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE STRONG               
WINDS...AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW...AND PREVIOUS               
LIGHT SNOWS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THAT              
ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES/ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL MOST LIKELY               
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.                                                   
SNOW TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF CWA WELL                 
INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST DURING THIS                  
PERIOD. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER SUNDAY AND                 
MONDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS BECOMING A PROBLEM. THEREAFTER...GFS AND              
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS FOR                    
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH TIME AND                    
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES ABOUT MORE ACTIVE. 00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED             
WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US AND STORMS EJECTED                   
NORTHEAST TOWARD UPPER MIDWEST EVERY 36 HOURS OR SO.  STAY TUNED.               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE               
     EARTH-BROWN-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RICE-                  
     SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.                                       
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-                  
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-               
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-                  
     SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                    
     WRIGHT.                                                                    
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-LAC QUI PARLE-                     
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-                   
     YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-            
     FREEBORN.                                                                  
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR EAU                
     CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-                
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
400 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...                                    
...HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP NICELY OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND DULUTH. THE BAND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT             
RAGGED...THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON APPEARANCE OF SINGLE BAND               
STRUCTURE AS IT HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF KDLH. MEASURED ABOUT 0.5                   
INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE/AIRPORT IN TWO HOURS FROM MIDNIGHT TO 2A.               
MAX DBZ VALUES UP TO 34 WITH ECHO TOPS B/T 6 AND 7 KFT. MAY HAVE                
TO BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS IF THE BAND HOLDS TOGETHER...AS THERE COULD              
BE 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER SNOW RATES. RUC13 HAS FAIRLY GOOD                 
HANDLE ON ORIENTATION OF LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 12Z TODAY. LOW LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE APPARENT THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AT                 
PORT WING...AND NORTHEASTERLY AT TWO HARBORS. LIMITED                           
WIND SHEAR AT THE 1000 AND 925 MB LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z                   
SUPPORT SINGLE BAND STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION...THE ORIENTATION OF                 
THE WINDS DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE...ALONG WITH TOPOGRAPHY                
AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE...FAVOR SINGLE BAND STRUCTURE. THIS HOLDS               
TRUE FOR THE CHEQUAMEGON BAY/ASHLAND AREA AS WELL...IF WINDS                    
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS CURRENTLY ALMOST DUE EAST...                   
THOUGH BY 12Z WINDS BACK TO MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE SNOW BAND BACK INTO THE               
DULUTH METRO. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR                                  
DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD/ASHLAND COUNTIES VERY CLOSELY THIS MORNING... AS               
WIND TRAJECTORY COULD FAVOR THE SOUTH SHORE TO GET IN ON HEAVIER                
SNOW AS WELL. MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE THESE AREAS TO A WARNING.                     
THINKING IS STILL AN AVERAGE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE WARNING                       
AREA...THOUGH IF A SINGLE BAND REMAINS OVER ANY ONE AREA...WOULD                
SEE UPWARDS OF GREATER THAN 12 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.                   
WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BRINGING THE LAKE                   
EFFECT POTENTIAL UP THE NORTH SHORE TO COOK COUNTY. ADDED AREAS OF              
BLOWING SNOW TODAY...AS WINDS NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE WILL GUST               
UPWARDS OF 35-40 KTS TODAY.                                                     
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT SATURDAY AND             
SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN              
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA SOMETIME THIS MORNING OR EARLY                      
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT IN TIMING OF THE EVENT STARTING                    
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...AS STRONG WAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE               
HIGH PLAINS. TROWAL/INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE SETS UP AND REMAINS                 
OVER THE NORTHLAND FOR ALL OF SATURDAY...PERHAPS INTO EARLY                     
SUNDAY... PROLONGING SNOW EVENT. PERIOD OF ROBUST FGEN FORCING                  
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON SATURDAY WITH GREATER THAN              
ONE INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES...MAINLY ACROSS SW ZONES...AS DEPICTED BY              
NAM/ECM X-SECTIONS. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD SNOW TOTALS OF 8                    
INCHES OR MORE LOOK LIKELY FOR NE MN AND NW WI. SYSTEM BEGINS TO                
WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY...AS COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN MAKES A RETURN              
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE                          
DIGITS...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN ON                
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.                                                          
.EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY WILL BRING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE                
SNOWY PATTERN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR              
NEXT WEEK. NEXT PACIFIC WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS             
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR                       
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS            
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE               
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND HEAD             
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS NEAR OR              
AT THE KDLH TAF SITE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR STRATUS STRETCHED                  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND                
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING TO              
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  17  11  15   5 /  90  60 100 100                                           
INL   7   2  10  -7 /  20  40  90  90                                           
BRD  16  12  14  -3 /  30  70 100  90                                           
HYR  19   8  18   5 /  30  20 100 100                                           
ASX  18  11  17   7 /  80  20 100 100                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR CROW WING-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN                   
     CASS-NORTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN                
     ITASCA.                                                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR                   
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-                
     NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-                       
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR                    
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                        
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR                   
     BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS.                                                          
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-                 
     SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                                           
LS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-           
     LSZ140-LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-                   
     LSZ148.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ140-            
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                   
$$                                                                              
LONKA/LILES                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
343 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WINTER WX ADV OVER SOUTHERN CWA. NICE              
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING PER                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HEAVIER SNOW BAND LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH               
600 MB FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PER LATEST RUC. SNOW SHOULDNT MAKE               
IT TOO MUCH FARTHER THAN THIS BANDED REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT                
SIG DEVELOPMENT INTO METRO PROPER. REMOVED A TIER OF COUNTIES AS                
BEST ACCUMS SOUTH. 5-6 INCHES ALREADY INTO WARNED AREA ALONG/SOUTH              
OF INTERSTATE 90. SHOULD SEE SOME 8-9 TOTALS CLOSE TO IOWA BORDER.              
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT INTO                    
WESTERN CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS              
NORTHWEST US NOW...AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO DAKOTAS                  
LATER TONIGHT. FOLLOWED A SLOWER 00Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THE SFC                      
FRONT...BUT STILL SHOULD BE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SAT.                 
HAVE OPTED KEEP THE BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR                       
NOW...BUT APPEARS BEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE STRONG               
WINDS...AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW...AND PREVIOUS               
LIGHT SNOWS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THAT              
ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES/ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL MOST LIKELY               
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.                                                   
SNOW TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF CWA WELL                 
INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST DURING THIS                  
PERIOD. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER SUNDAY AND                 
MONDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS BECOMING A PROBLEM. THEREAFTER...GFS AND              
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS FOR                    
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH TIME AND                    
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES ABOUT MORE ACTIVE. 00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED             
WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US AND STORMS EJECTED                   
NORTHEAST TOWARD UPPER MIDWEST EVERY 36 HOURS OR SO.  STAY TUNED.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE ONSET OF SNOW.              
WEATHER CONDS HAD REMAIN VFR UP TO THIS POINT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN             
HALF OF MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.  ONLY A FEW AREAS HAD REPORTED                
MVFR/IFR CONDS THURSDAY EVENING(KRWF). THE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA                
SHOWED MUCH OF THE COLUMN DRY BETWEEN THE LAYER 900 MB-700 MB OR                
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3000 FT THROUGH 9000 FEET AGL. EXPECT WEATHER CONDS             
TO LOWER TO MARGINAL VFR FLYING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VSBY LOWERING             
TO UNDER A MILE IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE KRWF-KMSP TO               
KRNH BEFORE 500 AM. CLOUDS/CEILINGS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 3000 FEET            
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE               
     EARTH-BROWN-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RICE-                  
     SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.                                       
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-                  
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-               
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-                  
     SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                    
     WRIGHT.                                                                    
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-LAC QUI PARLE-                     
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-                   
     YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-            
     FREEBORN.                                                                  
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR EAU                
     CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-                
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/TRH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...A WEAKENING BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHRA PUSHING INTO THE DELTA            
REGION WITH THE LAGGING FRONT NEAR A KCGI-KHOT-KTXK LINE. HAVE NUDGED           
HIGH TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TRENDS             
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ZONE PACKAGE AND UPDATED             
HOURLY GRIDS/GRAPHICS SHOULD BE POSTED ALREADY. LATEST RUC AND NAM12            
KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG A BASTROP TO COLUMBUS LINE TONIGHT. THEN           
A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER ERN OK ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ALONG I-40            
INTO TN SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE SETS UP THE BIG COOL DOWN FOR               
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEW BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES OUR DIRECTION./40/          
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR A DECENT BAND OF RAIN AND SOME            
SHOWERS JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. GUID POPS WERE 50-70% AND I            
HAVE INCREASED THOSE SOME 10% ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER            
THE NW CWA AROUND 7-8 PM AND WASTE NO TIME MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. BY            
MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING THE TRACE CORRIDOR AND BY                   
12Z...EXITING THE FAR SE CWA. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE                  
MID/UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR           
BETWEEN 12-14Z SUNDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO                
UPPER 40S SE. SFC WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED            
WINDS BETWEEN 15-20KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SOME KIND OF WIND ADV                  
PRODUCT WILL BE NEEDED. /CME/                                                   
LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH              
WE WILL HAVE THE SHOT OF QUITE COLD ARCTIC AIR TO DEAL WITH FOR THE             
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEN LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH              
PRECIPITATION AND WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILDING THROUGH                 
WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF WINTRY-WEATHER DURING THE ONSET            
OF THIS PRECIP. CHRISTMAS LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH AVERAGE TEMPS            
FOR THE HOLIDAY BUILDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS WITH THE MENTIONED               
COLD SHOT COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY             
NIGHT. ANY RAIN LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT                 
SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY STRUGGLING TO RISE MUCH               
DURING THE DAY...AND SHOWING A TENDENCY TO FALL OFF BY                          
MID-AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR                 
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 IN FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MEX STILL LOOKS A            
LITTLE TOO WARM DURING THE DAYTIME...BUT IS FINALLY SEEMING TO GRASP            
POTENTIAL FOR NO-JOKE COLD SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY             
SUNDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID              
IN COOLING AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TRANSPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE               
SINGLE DIGITS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE FORECASTS LOWS IN THE               
MID TO UPPER TEENS UP NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TO THE MID            
20S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. IF WINDS DIE DOWN MORE            
THAN FORECAST THEN GUIDANCE COULD STILL BE TOO WARM...BUT IT LOOKS              
PRETTY GOOD THIS GO ROUND. REFRAINED AT THIS POINT FROM MENTIONING              
ANYTHING IN THE HWO ABOUT THE COLD...BUT FORECASTED TEMPS ARE COMING            
SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO HARD FREEZE CRITERIA AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR.                                                                
THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING THIS WAY WILL BEGIN                 
SHOVING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY...BUT THE              
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD STRONG AND KEEP TEMPS CHILLY.                     
FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW 0 CELSIUS ALL DAY IN               
MOST CASES SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO 40 DEGREES ON AVERAGE...AND              
GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO WARM. THIS HIGH WILL FINALLY START SHIFTING EAST            
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND SPILLS INCREASING               
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS               
FOR PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED AT 5 TO 10 KFT MONDAY NIGHT OVER              
WESTERN ZONES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT               
MUCH OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD EVAPORATE AS IT FALLS INTO A DRY BOUNDARY            
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WHAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE             
HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF BEING SLEET. THIS POTENTIAL WAS INCLUDED IN              
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT TAKE NOTE THAT ANY WINTRY-TYPE PRECIP               
FALLING IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD BE              
VERY LIGHT AND RATHER QUICK TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. SUBSEQUENT                  
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.                                      
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN                
CHANCES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD                       
AIRMASS COMPLETELY LOSES ITS GRIP AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BIG            
TIME ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE             
GFS MODEL DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY POTENT DISTURBANCE IMPACTING OUR                 
REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING THREATS FROM HEAVY RAIN AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE SOMETIMES MORE RELIABLE (IN WINTER)                
EUROPEAN MODEL DEPICTS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH               
AND THUS PRODUCING TAMER WEATHER. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME AGREEMENT             
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL SOMEWHAT ON THE GFS            
TRAIN AS WELL. WITH THAT IN MIND I GENERALLY STUCK WITH GFS GUIDANCE            
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH            
I WILL NOT START TALKING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN              
FORECAST PRODUCTS DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY.                                      
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS REMAIN FROM THIS                
POINT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE EURO DEVELOPING EXTREME UPPER LEVEL            
RIDGING OVER THE VICINITY OF THE DEEP SOUTH (WHICH WOULD RESULT IN              
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES). THE GFS LOOKS WARM AS WELL...BUT NOT TO THE            
SAME DEGREE...AND IT ALSO FEATURES POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL IMPACT                 
(WHICH THE EURO DOES NOT). /BB/                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOSTLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH PERIODS OF VFR               
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-02Z OR SO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP            
TONIGHT AND WITH LESS WIND...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A              
SHORT TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG HIGHWAY 82. SFC             
WINDS TODAY WILL BE DECENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-20. LOOK FOR              
SWLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...SHIFTING WLY              
OVER THE DELTA REGION AND THEN NLY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z./19/               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       76  58  74  42 /  13  12  13  77                                  
MERIDIAN      76  58  74  44 /  13  12  12  79                                  
VICKSBURG     76  59  74  41 /  14  12  14  70                                  
HATTIESBURG   78  59  76  48 /  13  10  11  65                                  
NATCHEZ       76  61  76  43 /  13  10  12  65                                  
GREENVILLE    74  57  71  37 /  26  27  51  67                                  
GREENWOOD     73  56  72  37 /  26  28  56  77                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
948 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR FORECAST UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVERAGE TRENDS                
AS WELL AS TWEAKING DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT.                
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SENDING A              
VERY COLD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL                
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL VALUES                   
ALREADY DIPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE OSAGE PLAINS OF EXTREME                       
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE                
TRAVELING OVER SNOW/ICE PACK AND MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY QUITE                   
WELL. AS A RESULT...SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS                 
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDS              
WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. CURRENT WIND CHILL              
ADVISORY IS WELL PLACED AND MOST LOCALES WILL HAVE WIND CHILL                   
VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -15 TONIGHT.                                             
A CURSORY GLANCE AT INCOMING MODEL OUTPUT CONFIRMS A VERY COLD DAY              
SUNDAY AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO CRACK 20F IN MANY AREAS. SUNDAY                   
NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON TO THIS               
POINT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE BEGINNING OF THE BITTER COLD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS              
STARTED AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE OZARKS BY                   
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO                
THE TEENS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS                     
PROGGED TO REMAIN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ALREADY                      
STARTING...DECIDED TO MOVE THE START TIME ON THE WIND CHILL                     
ADVISORY UP THREE HOUR TO MIDNIGHT...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL REACH               
THE BORDERLINE FOR -5 DEGREE WIND CHILLS. MODELS AGAIN WERE ABOUT               
3 HOURS SLOW ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FWC              
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY THE CLOSEST TO REALITY PROVIDING ANOTHER REASON               
TO MOVE UP THE ONSET OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE MET/MAV WERE               
CONSIDERABLY TOO WARM.                                                          
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE              
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL                   
PROGGED TO BE NEAR MINUS 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE              
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE FROM MORNING LOWS. EXPECT                    
READINGS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO                 
THE OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS                 
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A LOCATION                
OR TWO MAY FALL TO ZERO. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE                 
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
A SLOW MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH                   
SLIDES EAST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING                    
MONDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS LEE SIDE                
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH.               
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OFF AND EVEN RISE MONDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER TOP THE ARCTIC DOME             
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION                 
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TYPE AND INTENSITY OF              
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINTRY                      
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL FALL                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION THEN             
BECOMES HOW QUICK TO TEMPERATURES WARM. NAM MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER                
TEMPERATURES ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS WHICH TYPICALLY               
DOES NOT HANDLE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES THAT WELL. FOLLOWED A BLEND            
OF THE TWO MODELS WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT            
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOST OF               
THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE              
MORE ENTRENCHED. WHILE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ENOUGH              
WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES TUESDAY.                   
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY EVENING              
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.                 
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK SHOT AS              
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.                          
ACCUMULATION... IF ANY...LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.                                     
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK                
AS AN UPPER TROUGH FORMS OUT WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING                  
THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MORE                         
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. GRADUALLY WARMING ALONG WITH THE                   
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING LATE WEEK. IT                    
APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIQUID.                     
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE                    
QUICKLY DEPARTING STRATUS DECK. IR 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY INDICATES                 
THAT THE BACK EDGE OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK IS THROUGH FORT                 
SCOTT. THIS FEATURE LINES UP NICELY WITH A SUBTLE 850MB THERMAL                 
TROUGH WHICH THE RUC13 PROGS TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. AS SUCH                  
HAVE CLEARED SKIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT BOTH TAF SITES.                 
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...                
THUS HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.                   
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-                 
     066>071-077>083-088>094-101-102.                                           
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
524 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE BEGINNING OF THE BITTER COLD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS              
STARTED AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE OZARKS BY                   
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO                
THE TEENS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS                     
PROGGED TO REMAIN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ALREADY                      
STARTING...DECIDED TO MOVE THE START TIME ON THE WIND CHILL                     
ADVISORY UP THREE HOUR TO MIDNIGHT...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL REACH               
THE BORDERLINE FOR -5 DEGREE WIND CHILLS. MODELS AGAIN WERE ABOUT               
3 HOURS SLOW ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FWC              
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY THE CLOSEST TO REALITY PROVIDING ANOTHER REASON               
TO MOVE UP THE ONSET OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE MET/MAV WERE               
CONSIDERABLY TOO WARM.                                                          
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE              
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL                   
PROGGED TO BE NEAR MINUS 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE              
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE FROM MORNING LOWS. EXPECT                    
READINGS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO                 
THE OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS                 
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A LOCATION                
OR TWO MAY FALL TO ZERO. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE                 
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
A SLOW MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH                   
SLIDES EAST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING                    
MONDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS LEE SIDE                
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH.               
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OFF AND EVEN RISE MONDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER TOP THE ARCTIC DOME             
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION                 
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TYPE AND INTENSITY OF              
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINTRY                      
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL FALL                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION THEN             
BECOMES HOW QUICK TO TEMPERATURES WARM. NAM MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER                
TEMPERATURES ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS WHICH TYPICALLY               
DOES NOT HANDLE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES THAT WELL. FOLLOWED A BLEND            
OF THE TWO MODELS WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT            
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOST OF               
THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE              
MORE ENTRENCHED. WHILE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ENOUGH              
WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES TUESDAY.                   
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY EVENING              
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.                 
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK SHOT AS              
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.                          
ACCUMULATION... IF ANY...LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.                                     
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK                
AS AN UPPER TROUGH FORMS OUT WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING                  
THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MORE                         
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. GRADUALLY WARMING ALONG WITH THE                   
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING LATE WEEK. IT                    
APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIQUID.                     
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE                    
QUICKLY DEPARTING STRATUS DECK. IR 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY INDICATES                 
THAT THE BACK EDGE OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK IS THROUGH FORT                 
SCOTT. THIS FEATURE LINES UP NICELY WITH A SUBTLE 850MB THERMAL                 
TROUGH WHICH THE RUC13 PROGS TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. AS SUCH                  
HAVE CLEARED SKIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT BOTH TAF SITES.                 
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...                
THUS HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.                   
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY              
     FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>094-101-102.                            
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY              
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE WINTER STORM WHICH BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION TODAY               
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE STEADIER SNOWS WILL                   
QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY               
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH             
DURING SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL                    
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING                 
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA                    
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT                  
SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
THE FORECAST IS WORKING OUT BEAUTIFULLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                     
TIMING...AMOUNTS...AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ALMOST SPOT ON.                    
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOW NOW LIFTING NORTH                
INTO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY FROM ROCHESTER WEST AND               
ALSO PUSHING INTO ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS IS IN              
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA              
IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY               
SHOWING VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN               
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COMMA HEAD...WITH OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS              
SHOWING A 110+ KNOT 500MB JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH               
THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO. UPSTREAM RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF               
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND            
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPID                   
EXPANSION ON THE KBUF RADAR OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES FROM HAMILTON              
TO LONG POINT. EXPECT THIS TO CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA                
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ONE LAST SHOT OF                 
HEAVY SNOW AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CROSSES THE CWA.                        
A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT                  
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT MIDDAY...AND NOW THIS AREA WHICH HAS THE WARMER            
AIR ALOFT IS ESSENTIALLY DRY SLOTTED...WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT                
SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.              
EXPECT THIS LIGHT MIX TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE                
COLDER AIR ALOFT COMES BACK IN AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK            
TO SNOW.                                                                        
EXPECT STORM TOTALS TO REACH 7 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA              
INCLUDING BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO. TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN              
TO ABOUT 5 INCHES OR SO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THERE WAS A MIX              
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HEAVY SNOW IS            
MAKING IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...SO WE SHOULD BE             
ABLE TO REALIZE TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES EVEN ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE              
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.                                                           
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO                 
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE THE WINDS               
ARE COMING IN OFF THE LOW FRICTION SURFACE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT              
WINDS TO GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH MID EVENING WITH EVEN HIGHER               
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM HILTON TO YOUNGSTOWN.                   
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE NEAR                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE                  
ONTARIO.                                                                        
LATER THIS EVENING THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST            
AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD. THE SNOW MAY LINGER A LITTLE            
LONGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME MINOR LAKE               
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                     
FOR THE MOST PART...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LULL BETWEEN THE WINTER            
STORM TODAY AND THE NEXT WINTER STORM BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY                   
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...FROM ROCHESTER TO THE NIAGARA RIVER             
AS THE FLOW STILL REMAINS NORTHEASTERLY...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR            
DOES SHOW UP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANY LAKE SNOWS WILL COMPLETELY CUT             
OFF BY MID DAY SATURDAY...AS FLOW VEERS SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE              
NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
OUR FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM              
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE            
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO LIFT UP ACROSS                  
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA JUST WEST OF BUFFALO BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS               
A SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.                  
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING A MODEST                    
AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT                 
AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH A GOOD INFLUX OF BOTH                 
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL SNOWFALL              
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODEL QPF FIELDS AND                 
LATEST HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE                 
RANGE OF 1-3/2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND 3-6 INCHES               
ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE                
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SNOWS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER.                      
ALTHOUGH THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS                
THE ONE WE HAD TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL              
COMPONENT OF STRONG SURFACE WIND FIELDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                
AS A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO FORM OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE                 
SUNDAY. WE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING POTENTIAL                   
ALONG WITH DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.                           
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES              
THE DOMINATE FEATURE WORKING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A VERY                  
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON             
A DEVELOPING WELL ALIGNED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE ARE                  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY                   
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EVENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE BUFFALO METRO AREA OR JUST            
TO THE SOUTH...THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY CARRY THESE                   
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WELL INLAND LIKELY REACHING TO THE ROCHESTER             
AREA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS              
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR THE              
LIMITING POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS WHICH MAY TEND TO STRETCH AND                
TEAR APART ANY ORGANIZED BANDS. WE WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS             
POINT...WITH STILL SOME PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY ISSUES TO PIN DOWN,             
BUT IF LATER MODEL DATA MAINTAINS CONTINUITY A SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT THE BUFFALO AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN                 
TIER LATE SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY.                                            
THE SAME CONCERNS WILL CARRY OVER TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO                 
INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AREA. POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL                 
LIKELY IMPACT THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.                       
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEME OF LATEST BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTING THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY             
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. WIND HEADLINES MAY ALSO NEED TO              
BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                   
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND                  
SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE BANDS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN               
TIER OFF LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BETWEEN ROCHESTER              
AND OSWEGO. MODELS SOUNDING ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR                    
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE SNOWS ARE IN             
QUESTION DURING THIS TIME...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE                
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN                 
SOUTHERN TIER AND FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY OFF LAKE                      
ONTARIO.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
QUIETER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN DURING TUESDAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ANY WEAK LINGERING            
LAKE SNOWS FROM MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO THE BUFFALO AND             
WATERTOWN AREAS WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AS THE            
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SHEAR INCREASES            
DRAMATICALLY...AND DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES AT THE LOW LEVELS.                   
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST THE                
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING CHRISTMAS EVE            
AND THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER               
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF TEMPS REMAIN              
COLD ENOUGH...THOUGH THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN                   
GFS/ECMWF INDICATIONS OF A FAIRLY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR             
OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BE WARM              
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN SOME RAIN INITIALLY. GIVEN            
ALL THAT WE HAVE GOING ON OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW                       
DAYS...WILL OPT TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND INDICATE MAINLY SNOW               
FOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR NOW...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT PTYPE MAY BE                
NEED TO BE REVISITED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BRING MOST OF            
THE STEADY SNOW TO AN END. ALREADY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN              
COUNTIES WITH KBUF/KIAG/KJHW SHOWING VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH SOMW                 
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK...EXPECT KROC AND KART TO IMPROVE AFTER            
02Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR KIAG AND KROC AND ALL SITES             
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT MVFR WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINING THE              
MVFR CEILINGS. NOT MUCH CEILING IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY                
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO PRODUCING            
1500FT TO 2500FT CLOUD DECK.                                                    
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                                          
SUNDAY...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BLOWING SNOW. STRONG WINDS.                   
MONDAY...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST SHIFTING                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.                                                         
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                                           
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK               
EAST OFF THE JERSEY COAST TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY GALES WILL CONTINUE            
ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS              
AND ASSOCIATED WAVE WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS WELL OUT            
INTO THE ATLANTIC.                                                              
THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO DROP ABOUT 2 FEET             
ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WATER              
LEVELS ARE STARTING TO RISE BACK UP.                                            
SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE ON THE LAKES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.                                      
ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OFF            
THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE              
HIGHLY LIKELY ON BOTH LAKES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE             
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH STORM FORCE.                               
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                      
     NYZ001>008-010>014-085.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                       
     NYZ019>021.                                                                
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.          
         LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-             
         040-041.                                                               
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.              
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                          
         LOZ042>045-062>065.                                                    
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
         SLZ022-024.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TMA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
SHORT TERM...TMA                                                                
LONG TERM...JJR                                                                 
AVIATION...WCH                                                                  
MARINE...TMA                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL                
RACE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY EARLY THIS                         
AFTERNOON...AND THE JERSEY COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL              
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY             
THIS EVENING...WITH THE STEADIER SNOWS THEN QUICKLY TAPERING OFF                
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. ANY                    
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH             
DURING SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT             
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE FORECAST IS WORKING OUT BEAUTIFULLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                     
TIMING...AMOUNTS...AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ALMOST SPOT ON.                    
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOW NOW LIFTING NORTH                
INTO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY FROM ROCHESTER WEST AND               
ALSO PUSHING INTO ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS IS IN              
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA              
IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY               
SHOWING VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN               
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COMMA HEAD...WITH OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS              
SHOWING A 110+ KNOT 500MB JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH               
THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO. UPSTREAM RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF               
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND            
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPID                   
EXPANSION ON THE KBUF RADAR OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES FROM HAMILTON              
TO LONG POINT. EXPECT THIS TO CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA                
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ONE LAST SHOT OF                 
HEAVY SNOW AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CROSSES THE CWA.                        
A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT                  
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT MIDDAY...AND NOW THIS AREA WHICH HAS THE WARMER            
AIR ALOFT IS ESSENTIALLY DRY SLOTTED...WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT                
SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.              
EXPECT THIS LIGHT MIX TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE                
COLDER AIR ALOFT COMES BACK IN AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK            
TO SNOW.                                                                        
EXPECT STORM TOTALS TO REACH 7 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA              
INCLUDING BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO. TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN              
TO ABOUT 5 INCHES OR SO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THERE WAS A MIX              
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HEAVY SNOW IS            
MAKING IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...SO WE SHOULD BE             
ABLE TO REALIZE TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES EVEN ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE              
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.                                                           
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO                 
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE THE WINDS               
ARE COMING IN OFF THE LOW FRICTION SURFACE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT              
WINDS TO GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH MID EVENING WITH EVEN HIGHER               
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM HILTON TO YOUNGSTOWN.                   
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE NEAR                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE                  
ONTARIO.                                                                        
LATER THIS EVENING THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST            
AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD. THE SNOW MAY LINGER A LITTLE            
LONGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME MINOR LAKE               
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                  
ON SATURDAY...WE WILL BE IN THE LULL IN BETWEEN TODAY`S WINTER                  
STORM...AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA               
BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE                   
MORNING OWING TO A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF                    
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ACROSS THE LAKE...BUT LOW /~5 KFT/ LAKE                   
EQLS...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN             
THIS ACTIVITY BEING RATHER INSIGNIFICANT IN NATURE. AS SUCH...WILL              
CONTINUE TO JUST CARRY LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FROM MONROE                 
COUNTY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER IN THE MORNING...THEN               
DROP THESE BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE              
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SHEARED/MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND PUSHES               
ANY LINGERING WEAK ACTIVITY OUT INTO THE LAKE.                                  
THEREAFTER...OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS                 
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES LATER SATURDAY            
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE               
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THE 19/00Z                    
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT ON A DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW                   
STRUCTURE EVOLVING WITH TIME...WITH A PRIMARY LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING SUNDAY...AND A                 
SECONDARY COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINAS              
TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR             
ADVECTION PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF THESE TWO LOWS WILL RESULT IN A FAIR             
AMOUNT OF ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND                       
SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A GOOD INFLUX OF GULF AND                  
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GENERAL SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL OF                   
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATEST MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGEST THE               
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF             
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PERHAPS 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE              
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHIELD THE            
LONGEST.                                                                        
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT                      
CONNECTING THE TWO LOWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY SLOTTING WORKING INTO              
THE AREA FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STEADIER                    
SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO TAPER OFF TO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR                  
SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE A SECONDARY AREA OF                   
WRAPAROUND PRECIP WORKS BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH            
SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND                     
BETTER REFLECT THIS OVERALL TREND IN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP...GENERALLY            
DROPPING THESE BACK TO CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS EVERYWHERE SUNDAY                 
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAISING THEM BACK TO AT LEAST LIKELY EVERYWHERE              
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WRAPAROUND PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE AREA.                     
COMPLICATING FORECAST MATTERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE              
MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE                
OCCLUDED FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE              
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                       
EVENING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -12C TO -16C BY SUNDAY                
EVENING...AND TO -15C TO -18C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN                  
PLENTY OF LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY              
DEEP MOISTURE AND WELL ALIGNED STEERING WINDS WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT            
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING                 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.                                      
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LAKE               
EFFECT IS EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP. THE                 
19/00Z NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 19/00Z ECMWF MAINTAIN THE                 
PRIMARY LOW A LITTLE BIT LONGER...AND AS A RESULT INDICATE A WSW LOW            
LEVEL FLOW THAT WOULD RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS INITIALLY IMPACTING              
THE BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AREAS FOR A WHILE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT              
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. MEANWHILE...THE 19/00Z GFS              
PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW...AND AS A RESULT             
INDICATES MORE OF A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WOULD CAUSE THE                
LAKE SNOWS TO INITIALLY FORM A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO               
AND WATERTOWN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SWEEP                   
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.                
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE AND INHERENT FORECAST               
UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...IT REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO             
PROJECT EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL BE MOST INFLUENCED BY THE LAKE                 
SNOWS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL JUST INDICATE A BROAD              
AREA OF LAKE-ENHANCED CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF THE LAKES FOR NOW                
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SHIFT THE AREAS OF ENHANCED POPS            
SOUTH TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE                 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW BECOMING MORE                          
NORTHWESTERLY.                                                                  
AS IF ALL OF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING FACTOR            
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WIND FIELDS               
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.            
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED                
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...WHICH WILL              
CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND VISIBILITY PROBLEMS...                 
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE LAKE SNOWS.                                 
FOR MONDAY...A VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH 850 MB                      
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR MINUS 18C...WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER              
GREAT LAKES AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN                    
MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS             
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF               
LAKE ONTARIO. THE HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD             
IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BUFFALO AREA...AS WELL AREAS FROM THE             
ROCHESTER EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AMOUNTS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS              
FAR OUT...BUT FAVORABLE LAKE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR               
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...WITH STILL-BRISK WINDS AGAIN CAUSING            
PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.                                        
THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH              
THESE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WITH TIME AS              
WINDS BACK TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION...WARM ADVECTION BEGINS              
ALOFT...AND DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
QUIETER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN DURING TUESDAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ANY WEAK LINGERING            
LAKE SNOWS FROM MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO THE BUFFALO AND             
WATERTOWN AREAS WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AS THE            
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SHEAR INCREASES            
DRAMATICALLY...AND DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES AT THE LOW LEVELS.                   
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST THE                
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING CHRISTMAS EVE            
AND THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER               
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF TEMPS REMAIN              
COLD ENOUGH...THOUGH THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN                   
GFS/ECMWF INDICATIONS OF A FAIRLY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR             
OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BE WARM              
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN SOME RAIN INITIALLY. GIVEN            
ALL THAT WE HAVE GOING ON OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW                       
DAYS...WILL OPT TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND INDICATE MAINLY SNOW               
FOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR NOW...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT PTYPE MAY BE                
NEED TO BE REVISITED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL             
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY WITH VSBY BELOW LANDING MINIMUMS...             
PREVENTING ANY AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FOR ALL BUT TYPE II AND TYPE III             
QUALIFIED AIRCRAFT AND AIRCREWS. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE                
INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY               
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST. AFTER 20Z              
HAVE PLACED THE HEAVY SNOW IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KBUF-KIAG AND AFTER              
21Z AT KROC TO SIGNIFY THE MORE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW.                
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING              
AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS RUNWAYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.                          
THE SNOW HAS PROBABLY CHANGED OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT                
KJHW BASED ON VISIBILITY...ALTHOUGH SINCE THERE IS NO PRESENT                   
WEATHER SENSOR ON THE KJHW AWOS III EQUIPMENT WE CANNOT VERIFY THIS.            
THE MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING            
BACK TO SNOW.                                                                   
LATER TONIGHT THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WITH VSBY RETURNING TO VFR...             
ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT AND               
SATURDAY MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST                   
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUE.                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                                          
SUNDAY...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BLOWING SNOW. STRONG WINDS.                   
MONDAY...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST SHIFTING                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.                                                         
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                                           
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORK ACROSS THE              
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...THEN OFF THE JERSEY               
COAST TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON LAKES ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO               
WILL STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                    
TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW...THEN PERSIST AT GALE FORCE              
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS WELL            
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY QUIET                
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST                  
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.                                                  
ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OFF            
THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE              
HIGHLY LIKELY ON BOTH LAKES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE             
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH STORM FORCE.                               
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                      
     NYZ001>008-010>014-085.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                       
     NYZ019>021.                                                                
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.          
         LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-             
         040-041.                                                               
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.              
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                          
         LOZ042>045-062>065.                                                    
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
         SLZ022-024.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JJR                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
SHORT TERM...JJR                                                                
LONG TERM...JJR                                                                 
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                            
MARINE...JJR                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
443 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE              
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT              
WILL RETURN N OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE              
CAROLINAS FROM THE W. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA SUNDAY              
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG AND COLD HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...N OF            
THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
AS OF 300AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING QUICKLY E FROM THE            
MID ATLC COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING S THROUGH SE               
VIRGINIA. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES WHICH IS ADVECTING SOME HIGH             
CLOUDS E THROUGH THE AREA.                                                      
THE FRONT TO OUR N IS EXPECTED TO DROP S THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS            
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THO THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION TO            
IF THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH MINIMAL SUPPORT. MODEL              
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH A POSN BETWEEN THE CORE              
BANKS AND DUPLIN COUNTY BY 18Z THEN MAYBE DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER S              
BEFORE STALLING. POST FRONTAL SFC N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW             
CAA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DROPPING TEMPS DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON WHICH ALWAYS MAKES THE TEMP GRIDS CHALLENGING...AND STILL             
THINK A VARIETY OF TEMPS WILL BE FELT TODAY WITH GENERALLY HIGHS IN             
THE U50S/L60S N AND M-U60S S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE MAX                
TEMPS IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESP NRN HALF OF CWA WHERE             
TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE L60S THUS FAR TONITE WITH MILD SW               
FLOW. HAVE THUS USED A RUC/NAM12 BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS IN THE NEAR             
TERM INSTEAD OF THE NORMAL CLIMO DIURNAL CURVE.                                 
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 2ND                
HALF OF THE DAY AS OUR FRONT BEGINS STALLING AND 850MB WAA BEGINS               
OVER RIDING THE SHALLOW POST FRONTAL SFC WINDS. CONTINUED TO BRING              
IN POPS AFTER 18Z...HIGHEST OVER THE SW PART WHICH IS IN LINE WITH              
THE NWP CONSENSUS AND WHERE OUR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...AND                
WHERE MID LEVEL MOIST AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED LATER              
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL SETTING UP TO BE A MESSY NIGHT. OUR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT N IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRES MOVING E/NE                   
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STRONG 850MB WAA PATTERN WILL PERSIST WHICH              
WILL AID IN LIFT IN ADDITION TO STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS             
A DEEP CUT OFF LOW MOVES SE TO E THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.            
ALL OF THE MODELS ARE INIDICATING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH            
THIS PATTERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF AREA WHERE WE HAVE                 
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL...AND GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.            
ALSO ADDED A SCHC TSTMS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH              
OMEGA EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED BTWN 850-500MB. SVR THREAT APPEARS TO            
BE MINIMAL OVER OUR AREA BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS            
WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT DVLP.                                              
LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE OF AREA SUNDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A              
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THRU SUN AFTN. BAND OF ASSOCIATED SHRA                 
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY             
EARLY EVENING. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRES FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT              
WITH CAA PATTERN SETTING IN SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SUN            
NIGHT IN THE U20S/NR30 INLAND WITH M-U30S OBX...THEN STRUGGLING TO              
GET OUT OF THE L40S ON MON WITH DRY WX PERSISTING AS HIGH PRES                  
BUILDS FROM THE W.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
MON NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH SFC WINDS LIKELY            
DECOUPLING AS HIGH PRES NEARS FROM THE W. COULD BE SOME HIGH LEVEL              
MOISTURE FILTERING THRU AREA AROUND A BUILDING UPR RIDGE BUT DOUBT              
IT WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE L-M20S INLAND               
GIVEN WE AREN`T EXPECTING HIGHS TO GET MUCH PAST 40 ON MON. DRY AND             
COOL WX ON TAP FOR TUE AS DEEP HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA W/                
HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S. GFS SHOWING A WEAK COASTAL TROF AND                     
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND TUE EVENING BUT NOT BUYING OFF ON            
THIS JUST YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH PRES              
SLIDES OFFSHORE WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT PUTTING US IN THE WARM             
SECTOR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO L-M60S. KEPT LOW CHANCE OF             
-SHRA WED AFTN/EVENING BUT MODELS NOT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE              
AT THIS POINT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND            
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH HOW FAR S THE FRONT              
WILL MAKE IT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT SCHC VARIETY            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
TAF SITES COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS OR VSBYS AS WINDS                  
DIMINISH NEAR SUNRISE...OTRW VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. MVFR            
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS SFC WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND                
COLD FRONT PUSHING S ACROSS AREA. WDSPRD IFR DEVELOPING THIS EVENING            
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS OVERRUNNING PCPN DEVELOPES OVER LOW LVL             
NE FLOW.                                                                        
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT SUN MORNING...THEN                  
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SUN EVENING. CONDITIONS                  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS                
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN            
TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK              
AS A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EAST OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CONTINUED SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE TO               
RESIDUAL 6-7 FT SEAS...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER WARMER              
OUTER WATERS WITH DIAMOND BUOY UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL                
DIMINISH AS PRES GRAD SLACKENS WITH FRONT MOVING IN FROM N. SOME NE             
LOW LVL CAA SURGE EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS                
AFTN BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN              
ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NC/VA.                 
GALES PSBL OVER WARMER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN AFTN              
BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK. MODERATE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND               
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SCA CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.                 
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TUE WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN...THEN WINDS AND             
SEAS INCREASING AGAIN WED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT               
FRONT APPROACHING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                  
AMZ150-     152-154-156-158.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...MW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...MW                                                                 
LONG TERM...MW                                                                  
AVIATION...JBM                                                                  
MARINE...JBM                                                                    
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
1201 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WHAT A MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL               
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS MOVED                 
EAST LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP THE LOW-DENSITY               
SNOW THAT FELL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND CAUSE TRAVEL                 
DIFFICULTIES AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW REDUCES VISIBILITIES.                 
GETTING RELIABLE OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITY IS RATHER DIFFICULT ON              
A WEEKEND MORNING...SO HAVE TO ASSUME THAT THE FEW REPORTS                      
RECEIVED ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENTIRE AREA.                                 
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE REPLACED WINTER STORM WARNING WITH A WINTER                 
WEATHER ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHTED THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ALONG                
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ALSO EXTENDED IT THROUGH NOON CST               
ON SUNDAY...SINCE A SECONDARY PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR JUST NORTH OF THE              
BORDER IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY.                  
THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS UP AND CONTINUE BLOWING SNOW ALONG                  
WITH WIND CHILLS TO 50 BELOW. OUT WEST...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND                
CHILL WARNING AND HIGHLIGHTED THE SAME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.               
DICKINSON HAS BEEN REPORTING 1 3/4 TO 4 MILES VISIBILITY WITH                   
BLOWING SNOW...BUT SO HAS BISMARCK...AND A LOOK OUTSIDE SUGGESTS                
THAT ASOS IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH ICE CRYSTALS IN ITS SENSOR.                 
FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUD FORECASTS ARE WAY OFF SO FAR TODAY. THIS               
MEANS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TONIGHTS CLOUD COVER WILL BE                  
LESS THAN FORECAST. OVERALL...THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS                
FOR RADIATION WILL BE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO ADJUSTED              
TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH THOSE OF THE 15 UTC RUC...WHICH IS                 
COOLER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL                  
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE CURRENT WINTER                  
STORM CONTINUING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND GETTING READY             
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SLATED FOR MONDAY             
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                                                             
FIRST AND FOREMOST...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER                  
ADVISORIES OVER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND              
IN ITS WAKE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.           
AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE              
UPGRADED TO A WIND CHILL WARNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT                 
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FALL TO                   
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 BELOW ZERO...IN COMMUNITIES LIKE WILLISTON AND                
GARRISON. BORDERLINE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OVER MANY OTHER                
AREAS AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SORT THIS OUT AND UPGRADE TO                   
WARNINGS WHERE APPROPRIATE FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. DESPITE BLOWING             
AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH            
ENOUGH AND NOT CROSS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS DIDN`T WANT TO               
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF FALLING SNOW             
HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN               
HAZARD AND THREAT WILL REST SOLELY ON THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL                  
TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.                                       
HOWEVER...FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES...FROM BOTTINEAU SOUTH TO                  
JAMESTOWN AND ASHLEY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND                  
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING                     
CONTINUE OVER THESE ZONES TODAY...BUT FULLY EXPECT THAT LATER                   
TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE              
ABOVE A MILE...THE WINTER STORM WILL BE CANCELED AND A WIND CHILL               
ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. AGAIN WILL DEFER THIS ACTION TO             
LATER SHIFTS.                                                                   
A BRIEF/24 HOUR RESPITE COMMENCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY             
AFTERNOON...THEN ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH             
TO PROGRESS INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CONTINUITY AND                 
AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS           
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO              
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW                    
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RANGE.             
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS STORM              
POTENTIAL AND ALSO WHAT TO EXPECT INTO CHRISTMAS...ANTICIPATING THE             
HIGH TRAVEL VOLUME ALL NEXT WEEK. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE              
HWO AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM EXEMPLIFIES THE PREVIOUS SNOW STORM WITH               
ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TYPE SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST                       
FLOW/MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION OUT            
AHEAD OF IT...THEN COLDER BEHIND IT BUT NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS                 
SYSTEMS. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MONDAY                
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE STEADY SNOW              
COMING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE START TIME            
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE SOMETIMES DIFFICULT...AT             
LEAST RIGHT NOW THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WOULD INITIATE.             
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO ARRIVE AFTER THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW             
FALLS.                                                                          
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
THE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY NORTH            
WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO                   
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL              
BRING A RESPITE FROM THE STORMY WINTER WEATHER OF LATE. THE NEXT                
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLORADO LOW MOVES            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BENEATH A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH.                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRESENT                
AVIATION HAZARDS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS THE STATE.                
EXPECT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IN SOME FAVORED AREAS             
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR                       
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-                  
012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KS/RL/SCHECK                                                                    
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
635 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE                
REGION TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE                 
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN              
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION             
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUC AND THE NAM-WRF DUE TO THEIR                
HANDLING OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURES.                                             
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL MOVE              
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO DURING THE                      
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS LOW WILL               
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z              
AND 22Z. COLD AIR STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WHITEWATER AND              
MIAMI VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THUS...AS STRONG...WARM...MOIST                     
ASCENT LIFTS OVER THIS COLD AIR...FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING. HAVE              
HAD REPORTS OF ONE TENTH TO AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE                    
ACCUMULATION FROM E CNTRL INDIANA NE TO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AND ICE STORM WARNING THROUGH              
THIS MORNING UNTIL WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING TEMPS               
TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH TO ONE                     
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PCPN               
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...AND THERE IS EVEN THE THREAT OF AN              
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACRS THE REGION.            
BY EARLY THIS AFTN...TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY OUT AHEAD OF                   
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NW TO              
NEAR 60 SE. PCPN WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE IN COVERAGE BY AFTN AS THE                
MAIN BULK OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW LEVEL               
JET.                                                                            
WITH A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA BEHIND THE COLD                     
FRONT...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40                        
KNOTS...WHICH IS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE KEPT WINDS JUST SHY               
OF THIS...AROUND 35 KNOTS...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND                
POSSIBLY ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA IF IT                  
BECOMES APPARENT THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL EXCEED 40 KNOTS.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                         
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION              
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DESPITE THE HIGH...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF            
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW               
LVL MOISTURE BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SIMILAR TO WHAT                   
HAPPENED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE                  
COOLED TEMPS ON SATURDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...RANGING FROM                  
AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.                                         
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH                
TIME DEALING WITH DIGGING ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND                
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW PRESSURE. THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW                
WILL HAVE AN IMPORTANT PART IN TERMS OF PCPN TYPE. FOR NOW...HAVE               
KEPT THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS                
OF THE CWFA...WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACRS THE SRN THIRD. ONCE                       
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PASSES BY TO THE ENE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS                
POISED TO BLAST SE ACRS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING                 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW                  
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOMING BRISK WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH.               
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 5 TO 10 RANGE BY MONDAY                     
MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO                   
LOWER 20S AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE. ARCTIC                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY                        
NIGHT...ALLOWING SKIES TO BRIEFLY CLEAR BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER                 
SYSTEM BY MID NEXT WEEK.                                                        
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS AND WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP                   
BELOW 10 BELOW ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL                 
ADVISORIES IN LATER FORECAST.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS HIGH                      
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN SYSTEM                  
APPROACHES FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE               
IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE WITH POSITION AND TIMING...AND THEREFORE                  
RESULTANT PCPN TYPES. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER COULD              
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
THE ICING THREAT IS OVER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS THE 32                   
DEGREE LINE IS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BOTH KDAY AND                       
KCMH ARE REPORTING RAIN AS OF 11Z. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO                  
FUNNEL INTO FCST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT KEEPING PCPN ALL RAIN               
AT THE TERMINALS. LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF                 
PREFRNTL TROF WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THRU 15Z WITH VLIFR              
CONDITIONS. DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FCST AREA IN                 
WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF BY LATE MRNG...RESULTING IN PCPN                
COVERAGE DECREASING...CIGS LIFTING TO NEAR 1000FT AND E/SE WINDS                
VEERING TO SW. COLD FRONT WILL APPCH KDAY/KCVG/KLUK BY 18-19Z AND               
KILN/KCMH/KLCK BTWN 19-20Z. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO WESTERLY                 
AND BECOME GUSTY WITH STRONG 850 LLJ OVERHEAD. SOME GUSTS MAY                   
APPCH 35-40KTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTN.              
A LAGGING SFC TROF WILL PASS THRU DURING THE ERLY EVNG AND MAY                  
SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES OR SOME DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL BECOME NRLY IN                
WAKE OF THIS TROF. LO LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A                
STRENGTHENING INVERSION OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP MVFR SC DECK             
IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION INTO SAT MRNG. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG                   
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF -DZ OR -FZDZ TOWARDS DAYBREAK SAT AS                   
DRIER AIR DEEPENS ABV THE INVERSION. LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO                    
CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY.                                                      
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MVFR                     
CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN AND                 
SNOW SHOWERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-            
     046-051>053-060-061.                                                       
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-             
     035-042>044.                                                               
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-            
     058-059.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1244 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE               
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON                  
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MOIST AND                     
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
LATEST RUC AND NAM HOLD OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BELOW FREEZING UNTIL              
12-15Z...WHILE PRODUCING OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF. WITH TEMPS                    
HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THIS AREA...IT SEEMS LIKELY              
THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES              
IN LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL UPGRADE THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY               
TO AN ICE STORM WARNING...WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE               
ACCUM EXPECTED. PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS...                                         
ELEVATED FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION IS BRINGING AN EXPANDING              
BAND OF PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AND IS JUST               
ABOUT TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. WEAK RIDGING AT               
THE SFC HAS BROUGHT WINDS DOWN TO NEARLY CALM...HALTING ANY CHANCE              
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE ANY                  
CHANCE FOR REBOUNDING TEMPS UNTIL THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST OF HERE                 
AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. LATEST RUC                
INDICATES THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO TEMPS              
UNTIL THIS TIME SHOULD STAY ROUGHLY WHERE THEY`RE AT. WITH PRECIP               
COMING IN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE              
WINTER WX ADVISORY TO AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW                     
FREEZING. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AS BULK OF THE               
FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEREFORE JUST               
A THIN GLAZING OF ICE IS EXPECTED...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. TOOK THE ADVY UNTIL 4 AM...WHEN IT LOOKS                 
LIKE TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I-71                   
CORRIDOR. DID NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE CINCY METRO IN THE ADVY AS              
MOST SENSORS AROUND HAMILTON COUNTY ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DID NOT GO              
AS FAR EAST AS COLUMBUS...SINCE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO              
MAKE IT THERE UNTIL TEMPS START RISING ABOVE FREEZING.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                       
AS WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE OVERSPREADS THE AREA...FREEZING RAIN           
WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PROCEEDS TO                    
PENNSYLVANIA...THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING...CHANGING TO              
SNOW IN THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY.                  
A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                      
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE                
OF RAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.                 
BASED ON GFS AGAIN...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THERE ARE SOME POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES...BUT THE TREND IS FASTER WITH            
THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT.               
BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...WITH EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF...MUCH COLDER              
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WORKING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SCT                
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY GUSTY                      
WINDS...AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM EARLY MORNING HIGHS.  LOWS                    
OVERNIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS.                                        
SCT/ISO SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A TRAILING UPPER             
DISTURBANCE.  ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE NORTHERN OHIO STRUGGLING TO REACH            
20 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                               
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE             
BRIEFLY BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN               
SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH              
THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE WITH POSITION AND TIMING...AND THEREFORE            
RESULTANT PCPN TYPES. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER COULD              
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
PCPN TYPE WITHIN THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF FCST REMAINS THE                
INITIAL ISSUE FOR THIS PACKAGE. PERUSAL OF AREA SFC OBS ERLY THIS               
MRNG PLACES 32F LINE FROM NEAR KHAO EAST TO INTERSTATE 71...THEN                
FOLLOWING I-71 NORTHEAST INTO THE CMH METRO. KDAY REPORTING -RA                 
CURRENTLY BUT SURROUNDING OBS INDCG -FZRA. WILL KEEP PREVAILING                 
-FZRA THERE THRU 09Z AND MONITOR OBS. SHOULD WARMER SFC AIR                     
OVERSPREAD KDAY A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED WILL ISSUE AN                  
AMENDMENT. KCMH PRESENTS A SIMILAR PROBLEM AS 32F LINE APPEARS TO               
BISECT FRANKLIN CO ATTM. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING -RA AT              
KCMH BUT INDCG POTENTIAL FRO -FZRA IN A TEMPO GROUP. LO LVLS                    
SHOULD WARM ENUF FOR ALL RAIN HERE BY 09Z AS WELL. SFC TEMPS                    
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT KLCK AND WILL GO WITH JUST -RA HERE.                         
INITIAL SHOT OF OVERRUNNING PCPN AHEAD OF ELEVATED WARM FRONT                   
PROGRESSING ACRS FCST AREA ERLY THIS MRNG. PCPN AREA HAS MOVED                  
NORTH OF KCVG/KLUK...BUT WAA PCPN REDVLPG ACRS CNTRL KY WILL MOVE               
BACK ACRS SW FCST AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR               
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ACRS LWR OH VLY AND HAVE THUS LOWERED                   
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT                 
AND INTO THE MRNG. HEAVIER AREA OF PCPN ASSOCD WITH PREFRNTL TROF               
AND VERY STRONG LLJ WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR ABOUT A                
3-5 HOUR PERIOD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MRNG. RAPID MID LVL                
DRYING IN WAKE OF THE TROF WILL SHUT THE PCPN DOWN INTO THE ERLY                
AFTN...AND SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY LIFT TO JUST ABV 1000                
FT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE                  
AFTN AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU FCST AREA AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO              
WESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE REDVLP BY LATE                  
AFTN/ERLY EVNG AS LAGGING SFC TROF DROPS SOUTH THRU FCST AREA.                  
WINDS WILL BECOME NRLY IN WAKE OF THIS TROF. THICK MVFR SC DECK                 
WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AS LO LVL INVERSION REESTABLISHES.                  
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MVFR                 
CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-            
     046-051>053-060-061.                                                       
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-             
     035-042>044.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     OHZ054-062-063-070>072.                                                    
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-            
     058-059.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     INZ066-073-074.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO                                                             
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                          
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1118 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
N WINDS CONTINUING ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BUT DECREASING              
IN SPEED ESPECIALLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE CURRENTLY              
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO KPNC AREA THIS AFTERNOON... WHERE IT MAY BE              
IN AND OUT THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.                   
OTHERWISE ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
STRONG COLD FRONT CONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.             
STRONG CAA AND NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPS AND LOW WIND                
CHILLS TO BE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO              
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO TRY AND SHOW BETTER TREND FOR TODAY AND QUICKER            
ARRIVAL OF FRONT/CAA ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                          
30                                                                              
----------------------------------------                                        
546 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL                
KS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. A PRE-                   
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... N-NW WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KTS                      
TODAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL REACH               
THE GAG AND WWR TERMINALS 12-13Z... CENTRAL AND SW OK BY MIDDAY                 
AND NORTH TX EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE                 
BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL OK... BECOMING SCATTERED IN                   
CENTRAL OK. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND                
25K FT BECOMING SCATTERED BY EVENING.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FAIRLY            
QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. ONCE THE TRUE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AN            
AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF            
THE DAY. THEREFORE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE                    
PROBLEMATIC AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR.            
THE NAM IS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH... AND ASSOCIATED WIND               
SHIFT... WHICH MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO CLEARLY TIME THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE TRUE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC INDICATING THE                  
STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REACHING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA                    
AROUND NOON... WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY WELL INTO                    
NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE CWA BY 6 PM.                
ALTHOUGH 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH EAST              
TEXAS... VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN                
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SHALLOW                    
MOISTURE... ALONG WITH THE FRONT`S RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT... WILL            
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH              
LOWER 20S IN NORTH TEXAS... WHILE EVEN COLDER READINGS ARE                      
EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE                
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.                                                        
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO                     
MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.                      
MEANWHILE... MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING              
WITH THEIR TIMING OF NEXT UPPER AIR SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR                   
TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS                 
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES... WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BEING                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. A MIX OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION                
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A                
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO               
BE LIGHT AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... THAT BEING THE INTERVAL                
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE EXIT OF THE UPPER WAVE...                  
APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT                  
LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS THAT OF THIS WEEKEND... AND SHOULD BEGIN TO               
MODIFY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO               
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN.                                                         
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN               
THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT FRIDAY.                 
FOR NOW... WE WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE               
IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPROVES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  16  29  13 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         44  18  32  14 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  21  34  16 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           37  11  24   8 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     35  14  24   7 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         61  21  38  15 /  10   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30/24/01                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1005 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG COLD FRONT CONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.             
STRONG CAA AND NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPS AND LOW WIND                
CHILLS TO BE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO              
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO TRY AND SHOW BETTER TREND FOR TODAY AND QUICKER            
ARRIVAL OF FRONT/CAA ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                          
30                                                                              
----------------------------------------                                        
546 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL                
KS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. A PRE-                   
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... N-NW WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KTS                      
TODAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL REACH               
THE GAG AND WWR TERMINALS 12-13Z... CENTRAL AND SW OK BY MIDDAY                 
AND NORTH TX EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE                 
BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL OK... BECOMING SCATTERED IN                   
CENTRAL OK. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND                
25K FT BECOMING SCATTERED BY EVENING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FAIRLY            
QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. ONCE THE TRUE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AN            
AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF            
THE DAY. THEREFORE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE                    
PROBLEMATIC AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR.            
THE NAM IS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH... AND ASSOCIATED WIND               
SHIFT... WHICH MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO CLEARLY TIME THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE TRUE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC INDICATING THE                  
STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REACHING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA                    
AROUND NOON... WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY WELL INTO                    
NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE CWA BY 6 PM.                
ALTHOUGH 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH EAST              
TEXAS... VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN                
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SHALLOW                    
MOISTURE... ALONG WITH THE FRONT`S RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT... WILL            
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH              
LOWER 20S IN NORTH TEXAS... WHILE EVEN COLDER READINGS ARE                      
EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE                
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.                                                        
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO                     
MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.                      
MEANWHILE... MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING              
WITH THEIR TIMING OF NEXT UPPER AIR SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR                   
TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS                 
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES... WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BEING                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. A MIX OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION                
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A                
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO               
BE LIGHT AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... THAT BEING THE INTERVAL                
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE EXIT OF THE UPPER WAVE...                  
APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT                  
LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS THAT OF THIS WEEKEND... AND SHOULD BEGIN TO               
MODIFY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO               
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN.                                                         
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN               
THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT FRIDAY.                 
FOR NOW... WE WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE               
IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPROVES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  16  29  13 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         49  18  32  14 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  21  34  16 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           43  11  24   8 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     36  14  24   7 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         68  21  38  15 /  10   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/32/32                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
546 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL                
KS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. A PRE-                   
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... N-NW WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KTS                      
TODAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL REACH               
THE GAG AND WWR TERMINALS 12-13Z... CENTRAL AND SW OK BY MIDDAY                 
AND NORTH TX EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE                 
BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL OK... BECOMING SCATTERED IN                   
CENTRAL OK. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND                
25K FT BECOMING SCATTERED BY EVENING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FAIRLY            
QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. ONCE THE TRUE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AN            
AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF            
THE DAY. THEREFORE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE                    
PROBLEMATIC AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR.            
THE NAM IS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH... AND ASSOCIATED WIND               
SHIFT... WHICH MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO CLEARLY TIME THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE TRUE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC INDICATING THE                  
STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REACHING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA                    
AROUND NOON... WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY WELL INTO                    
NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE CWA BY 6 PM.                
ALTHOUGH 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH EAST              
TEXAS... VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN                
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SHALLOW                    
MOISTURE... ALONG WITH THE FRONT`S RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT... WILL            
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH              
LOWER 20S IN NORTH TEXAS... WHILE EVEN COLDER READINGS ARE                      
EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE                
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.                                                        
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO                     
MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.                      
MEANWHILE... MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING              
WITH THEIR TIMING OF NEXT UPPER AIR SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR                   
TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS                 
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES... WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BEING                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. A MIX OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION                
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A                
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO               
BE LIGHT AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... THAT BEING THE INTERVAL                
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE EXIT OF THE UPPER WAVE...                  
APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT                  
LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS THAT OF THIS WEEKEND... AND SHOULD BEGIN TO               
MODIFY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO               
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN.                                                         
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN               
THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT FRIDAY.                 
FOR NOW... WE WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE               
IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPROVES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  16  29  13 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         49  18  32  14 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  21  34  16 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           43  11  24   8 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     36  14  24   7 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         68  21  38  15 /  10   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/32/32                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FAIRLY            
QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. ONCE THE TRUE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AN            
AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF            
THE DAY. THEREFORE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE                    
PROBLEMATIC AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR.            
THE NAM IS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH... AND ASSOCIATED WIND               
SHIFT... WHICH MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO CLEARLY TIME THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE TRUE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC INDICATING THE                  
STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REACHING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA                    
AROUND NOON... WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY WELL INTO                    
NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE CWA BY 6 PM.                
ALTHOUGH 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH EAST              
TEXAS... VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN                
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SHALLOW                    
MOISTURE... ALONG WITH THE FRONT`S RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT... WILL            
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH              
LOWER 20S IN NORTH TEXAS... WHILE EVEN COLDER READINGS ARE                      
EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE SINGLE                
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.                                                        
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO                     
MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.                      
MEANWHILE... MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING              
WITH THEIR TIMING OF NEXT UPPER AIR SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR                   
TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS                 
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES... WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BEING                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. A MIX OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION                
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A                
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO               
BE LIGHT AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... THAT BEING THE INTERVAL                
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE EXIT OF THE UPPER WAVE...                  
APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT                  
LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS THAT OF THIS WEEKEND... AND SHOULD BEGIN TO               
MODIFY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO               
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN.                                                         
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN               
THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT FRIDAY.                 
FOR NOW... WE WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE               
IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPROVES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  16  29  13 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         49  18  32  14 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  21  34  16 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           43  11  24   8 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     36  14  24   7 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         68  21  38  15 /  10   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/32                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1229 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HERE IS THE SECOND UPDATE TODAY TO UPDATE HEADLINES. HAVE DROPPED               
BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES INTO A WIND CHILL WARNING ALONG WITH THE               
REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM NOW UNTIL 18Z               
SUNDAY. SNOW IS VACATING THE VERY EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA AT THIS TIME. REPORTS HAVE CONTINUED TO STREAM IN THIS                     
MORNING OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE FART EASTERN                  
FORECAST ZONES...INCLUDING THE I-29 CORRIDOR. SO...FROM MARSHALL                
AND DAY AND CLARK COUNTIES AND POINTS EAST...WHERE THE MOST SNOW                
HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...HAVE CONTINUED THE BLIZZARD                   
WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN TACKED ON A WIND CHILL WARNING               
AT THE TAIL END OF THINGS FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY TO                 
MATCH UP WITH THE OTHER WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINE. ONCE                       
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE OUT EAST TO BETTER THAN ONE                     
QUARTER MILE...THE BLIZZARD WARNING CAN BE TAKEN DOWN AND THE WIND              
CHILL WARNING CAN SIMPLY FILL IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THE BLIZZARD              
WARNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                             
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH ONGOING PCPN                
AND BLIZZARD POTENTIAL...AND TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.                 
LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS INVERTED SFC TROF NOW JUST EAST OF THE                  
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SFC WINDS NW BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WINDS               
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OUT BY THE MO RIVER...WITH KMBG GUSTING               
TO 30MPH AND KPIR HAVING A PEAK WIND TO 36 MPH. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT              
MAIN AREA OF FORCING WILL SLIP THROUGH THE ERN PART OF THE CWA BY               
12Z...AND MOVE INTO MN BY 15Z. THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH MAIN                  
AREA OF 7H THETA-E FORCING ALSO SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA BY                      
15Z...WITH DOWNGLIDE THEN MOVING IN THEREAFTER. WITH BUFKIT                     
SHOWING DECENT OMEGA LIFTING THROUGH SNOWGROWTH AREA...SHOULD BE                
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT 2-3 INCHES OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW PRIOR TO WINDS              
SHOWING UP. WHICH...IF IT WEREN`T FOR THE WIND                                  
POTENTIAL...BLIZZARD WARNING COULD MOST LIKELY BE LOWERED TO A                  
SNOW/BS ADVRY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC IS SHOWING 925MB GEOSTROPHIC                
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS...AND GIVEN CURRENT GUSTS                    
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MO RIVER AREA...THINK THAT VSBYS WILL BEGIN               
TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS HIT THE POWDER ACROSS THE                      
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SPINK COUNTY IN THE BLIZZARD               
WARNING AS CALL PLACED TO LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMS 1.5" OF NEW                  
SNOW WITH VSBYS LOWERING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY              
DUE TO BLSN. FURTHER WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DRAMATICALLY                 
LESS...SO WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVRY RIDE FOR SNOW/BLSN.                 
TIMING THE END OF THE HEADLINE WILL BE AN ISSUE. DEFINITE BACK                  
EDGE OF SNOW CAN BE SEEN ON KABR 88D...BUT PERSISTANT STRONG WINDS              
WILL DETERIME LENGTH OF HEADLINE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP                  
HEADLINE EXPIRATION TIME AS INHERITED JUST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE                
AND CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH FEEL IT MAY BE A BIT LONG WHEN LOOKING                
AT SNOW PRODUCTION TIMING.                                                      
AS DOWNGLIDE SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT THE SNOW TO END                
RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY...WITH BLSN BEING THE MAIN WEATHER                
FACTOR. HAVE DECREASED POPS QUICKER THAN INHERITED...BUT KEPT                   
MENTION OF BLSN GOING. WITH STRONG CAA SWEEPING IN...HAVE ALSO                  
CONTINUED TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.                               
7H CLOSED LOW SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z                     
SUNDAY...WITH BACKDOOR 7H TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE EAST. MAY                   
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO REDEVELOP                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT                   
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                                
THEN COMES THE COLD. NAM CONTS TO SHOW 1035MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING              
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SETTING UP SHOP. COND PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW               
THAT CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA..WITH SFC WINDS                   
DECOUPLING NICELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUNDAY. WITH DEEP                   
FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF                         
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.                                         
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED                    
PERIOD WITH MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE MORE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING                   
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FIRST ONE SHOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
COULD REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT WITH SFC PRESSURE PATTERN DURING THIS EVENT BUT DISAGREE              
A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF QPF. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH AXIS              
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST MODELS                 
SHOWING QPF ALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BUT STILL SOME                          
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUT QPF...TAPERING OFF SOMEWHERE               
NEAR I-90. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO JUST UNDER LIKELY BUT               
TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. POCKET OF COLD 850 MB AIR              
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND -20 C MOVES IN BEHIND THIS                    
SYSTEM. SO AGAIN...LOOKING AT LOWS BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS PROBABLY               
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED.              
LOOKING TO THURSDAY...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTHERN CWA. GFS STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA BUT EC AND              
CANADIAN HAVE NOTHING AT ALL. IF GFS BEGINS TO BACK OFF ON THIS                 
WAVE MORE LIKE THE EC/CANADIAN THEN POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED.              
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...EC/GFS SHOWING YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM                 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.                                         
TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS COLD PATTERN CONTINUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THIS AREA. LATEST SATELLITE                 
LOOP OF VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST AN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING              
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. WSR-88D LOOP SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF                 
THE SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. TAF LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE                   
STILL MARGINAL VFR OR IFR IN BLOWING SNOW. IN THE NORTH CENTRAL                 
MOBRIDGE IS REPORTING GOOD VFR WITH WIND GUST AROUND 25-30 KTS.                 
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE PIERRE CONTINUES TO REPORT               
IFR CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY IS                
HIGHER BUT AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS ON THE GROUND WOULD STILL BE IFR.                
THROUGH TODAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES                 
EAST. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS NEW                
SNOW SETTLES. TONIGHT EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME IN WATERTOWN WITH SLOW              
IMPROVEMENT AS SNOW SETTLES. ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE STRONG                      
NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR BROWN-           
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-                   
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-                     
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CLARK-                
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.                         
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-            
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.                                       
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BIG STONE-            
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1107 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A COUPLE OF UPDATES FORTHCOMING THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST UPDATE IS              
JUST TO CLEAN UP THE FIRST PERIOD GRIDDED FORECAST. SNOW HAS                    
NEARLY ENDED NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IN THE                       
MEANTIME...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DID ACTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE              
FALLING SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS              
EAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST                
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING IN                         
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. MUCH OF                 
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PICKED UP AN INCH OR TWO OF              
SNOW LAST NIGHT...WHILE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST                  
PICKED UP ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND SOME AREAS                
ARE STILL SNOWING.                                                              
THE PLAN IS TO REARRANGE SOME OF THE HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT                  
HOUR OR SO TO CHANGE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREAS TO A WIND CHILL              
HEADLINE AND TO DROP BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES FROM A BLIZZARD                   
WARNING TO SOME FORM OF WIND CHILL HEADLINE. FROM MARSHALL...DAY                
AND CLARK COUNTIES EAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING                 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF TODAY. WHENEVER THE FALLING SNOW                   
ENDS...VISBIES START TO IMPROVE...DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS AND                  
BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW THOUGH...GIVEN THE EXTENT OF SNOWFALL OUT                 
EAST AND THE CONTINUED FALLING SNOW AT THE MOMENT...WILL ALLOW                  
THAT BLIZZARD WARNING OUT EAST...INCLUDING THE I-29 CORRIDOR...TO               
CONTINUE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                             
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH ONGOING PCPN                
AND BLIZZARD POTENTIAL...AND TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.                 
LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS INVERTED SFC TROF NOW JUST EAST OF THE                  
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SFC WINDS NW BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WINDS               
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OUT BY THE MO RIVER...WITH KMBG GUSTING               
TO 30MPH AND KPIR HAVING A PEAK WIND TO 36 MPH. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT              
MAIN AREA OF FORCING WILL SLIP THROUGH THE ERN PART OF THE CWA BY               
12Z...AND MOVE INTO MN BY 15Z. THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH MAIN                  
AREA OF 7H THETA-E FORCING ALSO SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA BY                      
15Z...WITH DOWNGLIDE THEN MOVING IN THEREAFTER. WITH BUFKIT                     
SHOWING DECENT OMEGA LIFTING THROUGH SNOWGROWTH AREA...SHOULD BE                
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT 2-3 INCHES OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW PRIOR TO WINDS              
SHOWING UP. WHICH...IF IT WEREN`T FOR THE WIND                                  
POTENTIAL...BLIZZARD WARNING COULD MOST LIKELY BE LOWERED TO A                  
SNOW/BS ADVRY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC IS SHOWING 925MB GEOSTROPHIC                
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS...AND GIVEN CURRENT GUSTS                    
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MO RIVER AREA...THINK THAT VSBYS WILL BEGIN               
TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS HIT THE POWDER ACROSS THE                      
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SPINK COUNTY IN THE BLIZZARD               
WARNING AS CALL PLACED TO LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMS 1.5" OF NEW                  
SNOW WITH VSBYS LOWERING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY              
DUE TO BLSN. FURTHER WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DRAMATICALLY                 
LESS...SO WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVRY RIDE FOR SNOW/BLSN.                 
TIMING THE END OF THE HEADLINE WILL BE AN ISSUE. DEFINITE BACK                  
EDGE OF SNOW CAN BE SEEN ON KABR 88D...BUT PERSISTANT STRONG WINDS              
WILL DETERIME LENGTH OF HEADLINE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP                  
HEADLINE EXPIRATION TIME AS INHERITED JUST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE                
AND CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH FEEL IT MAY BE A BIT LONG WHEN LOOKING                
AT SNOW PRODUCTION TIMING.                                                      
AS DOWNGLIDE SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT THE SNOW TO END                
RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY...WITH BLSN BEING THE MAIN WEATHER                
FACTOR. HAVE DECREASED POPS QUICKER THAN INHERITED...BUT KEPT                   
MENTION OF BLSN GOING. WITH STRONG CAA SWEEPING IN...HAVE ALSO                  
CONTINUED TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.                               
7H CLOSED LOW SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z                     
SUNDAY...WITH BACKDOOR 7H TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE EAST. MAY                   
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO REDEVELOP                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT                   
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                                
THEN COMES THE COLD. NAM CONTS TO SHOW 1035MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING              
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SETTING UP SHOP. COND PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW               
THAT CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA..WITH SFC WINDS                   
DECOUPLING NICELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUNDAY. WITH DEEP                   
FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF                         
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.                                         
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED                    
PERIOD WITH MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE MORE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING                   
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FIRST ONE SHOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
COULD REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT WITH SFC PRESSURE PATTERN DURING THIS EVENT BUT DISAGREE              
A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF QPF. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH AXIS              
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST MODELS                 
SHOWING QPF ALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BUT STILL SOME                          
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUT QPF...TAPERING OFF SOMEWHERE               
NEAR I-90. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO JUST UNDER LIKELY BUT               
TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. POCKET OF COLD 850 MB AIR              
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND -20 C MOVES IN BEHIND THIS                    
SYSTEM. SO AGAIN...LOOKING AT LOWS BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS PROBABLY               
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED.              
LOOKING TO THURSDAY...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTHERN CWA. GFS STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA BUT EC AND              
CANADIAN HAVE NOTHING AT ALL. IF GFS BEGINS TO BACK OFF ON THIS                 
WAVE MORE LIKE THE EC/CANADIAN THEN POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED.              
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...EC/GFS SHOWING YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM                 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.                                         
TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS COLD PATTERN CONTINUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE                  
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN -SN/SN/+SN AND AREAS OF BLSN. AS NORTHWEST               
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS CAN              
BE EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KABR/KATY               
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL                  
BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLOWLY ACROSS KMBG/KPIR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING                 
HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS KMBG/KPIR              
BUT WILL NOT END ACROSS KABR/KATY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF                 
BLSN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOWER                  
VSBYS ACROSS KABR/KATY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR               
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-                   
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.                  
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-          
     DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.                             
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
401 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                             
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH ONGOING PCPN                
AND BLIZZARD POTENTIAL...AND TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.                 
LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS INVERTED SFC TROF NOW JUST EAST OF THE                  
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SFC WINDS NW BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WINDS               
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OUT BY THE MO RIVER...WITH KMBG GUSTING               
TO 30MPH AND KPIR HAVING A PEAK WIND TO 36 MPH. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT              
MAIN AREA OF FORCING WILL SLIP THROUGH THE ERN PART OF THE CWA BY               
12Z...AND MOVE INTO MN BY 15Z. THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH MAIN                  
AREA OF 7H THETA-E FORCING ALSO SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA BY                      
15Z...WITH DOWNGLIDE THEN MOVING IN THEREAFTER. WITH BUFKIT                     
SHOWING DECENT OMEGA LIFTING THROUGH SNOWGROWTH AREA...SHOULD BE                
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT 2-3 INCHES OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW PRIOR TO WINDS              
SHOWING UP. WHICH...IF IT WEREN`T FOR THE WIND                                  
POTENTIAL...BLIZZARD WARNING COULD MOST LIKELY BE LOWERED TO A                  
SNOW/BS ADVRY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC IS SHOWING 925MB GEOSTROPHIC                
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS...AND GIVEN CURRENT GUSTS                    
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MO RIVER AREA...THINK THAT VSBYS WILL BEGIN               
TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS HIT THE POWDER ACROSS THE                      
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SPINK COUNTY IN THE BLIZZARD               
WARNING AS CALL PLACED TO LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMS 1.5" OF NEW                  
SNOW WITH VSBYS LOWERING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY              
DUE TO BLSN. FURTHER WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DRAMATICALLY                 
LESS...SO WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVRY RIDE FOR SNOW/BLSN.                 
TIMING THE END OF THE HEADLINE WILL BE AN ISSUE. DEFINITE BACK                  
EDGE OF SNOW CAN BE SEEN ON KABR 88D...BUT PERSISTANT STRONG WINDS              
WILL DETERIME LENGTH OF HEADLINE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP                  
HEADLINE EXPIRATION TIME AS INHERITED JUST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE                
AND CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH FEEL IT MAY BE A BIT LONG WHEN LOOKING                
AT SNOW PRODUCTION TIMING.                                                      
AS DOWNGLIDE SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT THE SNOW TO END                
RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY...WITH BLSN BEING THE MAIN WEATHER                
FACTOR. HAVE DECREASED POPS QUICKER THAN INHERITED...BUT KEPT                   
MENTION OF BLSN GOING. WITH STRONG CAA SWEEPING IN...HAVE ALSO                  
CONTINUED TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.                               
7H CLOSED LOW SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z                     
SUNDAY...WITH BACKDOOR 7H TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE EAST. MAY                   
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO REDEVELOP                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT                   
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                                
THEN COMES THE COLD. NAM CONTS TO SHOW 1035MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING              
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SETTING UP SHOP. COND PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW               
THAT CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA..WITH SFC WINDS                   
DECOUPLING NICELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUNDAY. WITH DEEP                   
FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF                         
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.                                         
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED                    
PERIOD WITH MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE MORE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING                   
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FIRST ONE SHOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
COULD REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT WITH SFC PRESSURE PATTERN DURING THIS EVENT BUT DISAGREE              
A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF QPF. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH AXIS              
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST MODELS                 
SHOWING QPF ALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BUT STILL SOME                          
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUT QPF...TAPERING OFF SOMEWHERE               
NEAR I-90. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO JUST UNDER LIKELY BUT               
TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. POCKET OF COLD 850 MB AIR              
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND -20 C MOVES IN BEHIND THIS                    
SYSTEM. SO AGAIN...LOOKING AT LOWS BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS PROBABLY               
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED.              
LOOKING TO THURSDAY...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTHERN CWA. GFS STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA BUT EC AND              
CANADIAN HAVE NOTHING AT ALL. IF GFS BEGINS TO BACK OFF ON THIS                 
WAVE MORE LIKE THE EC/CANADIAN THEN POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED.              
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...EC/GFS SHOWING YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM                 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.                                         
TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS COLD PATTERN CONTINUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE                  
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN -SN/SN/+SN AND AREAS OF BLSN. AS NORTHWEST               
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS CAN              
BE EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KABR/KATY               
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL                  
BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLOWLY ACROSS KMBG/KPIR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING                 
HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS KMBG/KPIR              
BUT WILL NOT END ACROSS KABR/KATY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF                 
BLSN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOWER                  
VSBYS ACROSS KABR/KATY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR               
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-                   
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.                  
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-          
     DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.                             
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1101 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT RADAR-SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE BEST RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE               
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...THEN                 
SHIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR               
THE AR-MO BORDER TRACKS EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTY BASED              
ON AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER                
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARMER TEMPS SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF                
AS WELL...THOUGH ITS DOUBTFUL THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM THE FORECAST              
AS WELL. LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BARELY PEAK ABOVE 5C/KM PER                  
RUC ANALYSIS AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS NO STRIKES IN                
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)...                                                         
SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN MID TN TODAY AS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK                 
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. PRES GRAD LIGHT WITH LESS WIND SPEED THAN                
FRI...WITH AN AFTERNOON SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS LOOK TO GET INTO              
THE 60S SOUTH. ISO THUNDER WITH GFS/NAM DESTAB TO ZERO IN THE                   
SHOWALTER.                                                                      
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MID-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                
MAJOR PUSH OF COLD AIR SUN. H8 TEMPS FALL TO 14-18 BELOW ZERO SUN               
WHICH WL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK.              
THERE WL BE SOME SUN SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SCT FLURRIES. DRY WITH VERY              
COLD ARCTIC AIR SUN NIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS SUBZERO WIND CHILLS.                 
WIND CHILL OUTLOOK ACR MID TN SUN NIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER                    
OUTLOOK PRODUCT AND GRAPHICS. CONTINUED DRY AND COLD MON.                       
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...                                                          
ARCTIC AIR CLINGS TO THE SFC TUE AS 850-MB LVL UP MOISTENS INTO                 
PRECIPITATION. MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH PCPN TUE BUT WL                     
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                 
MOVES THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON                   
CHRISTMAS. NOT A MAJOR COOLDOWN IN THE FAR EXTENDED...WITH TEMPS                
AOA NORMAL ADVERTISED.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAROSA                                                                          
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1108 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE REGION AS THE RECORD SNOWFALL                
PRODUCING WINTER STORM DEPARTS TODAY. BITTER COLD WEATHER WILL                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STRONG SNOW STORM                   
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN              
WILL LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWS CLOUDS DECREASING OVER NORTH                     
CENTRAL WASHINGTON THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE HIGH                         
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD                   
GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DESPITE THE CLEARING OVER                    
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON...DEEP LAYER                         
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND                      
SPOKANE...PULLMAN...AND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE 12Z SOUNDING                 
FROM SPOKANE SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 750-500MB. EVEN THE              
SMALLEST DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW               
IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND 12Z NAM...THERE IS A MINOR                  
500MB TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO THE              
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY 21Z. BEHIND THIS SUBTLE 500MB TROUGH...                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.                     
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY               
AND PORTIONS OF THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND                    
30 MPH THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON                  
AND THIS EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.                         
ELSEWHERE...WITHOUT THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN CHANNELING WINDS SHOULD              
BE 10 MPH OR LESS...AND THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE                     
SOMEWHAT LESS. /GKOCH                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SPOKANE...PULLMAN...COEUR                
D`ALENE...AND LEWISTON AIRPORTS THROUGH 20-22Z. VISIBILITIES MAY                
BE AS LOW AS 2SM IN SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. THE LIGHT WINDS                 
AND ABUNDANCE OF SNOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS              
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT HIGH.                
DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY NOT               
BE A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH OF DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF               
FOG OR STRATUS. /GKOCH                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        15  -2   5  -3  19  13 /  20  10   0  40  80  70                 
COEUR D`ALENE  16   0   4  -2  21  16 /  30  10   0  20  90  80                 
PULLMAN        19   5  11   7  27  20 /  30  10   0  40  90  80                 
LEWISTON       21   7  15  10  30  22 /  40  10   0  20  90  80                 
COLVILLE       16  -6   4  -4  18  12 /  10  10   0  30  70  50                 
SANDPOINT      17  -3   3  -7  16  14 /  30  10   0  10  70  70                 
KELLOGG        17   2   3  -6  20  17 /  50  20  10  20  90  90                 
MOSES LAKE     17   0  10   8  20  11 /   0  10  10  80 100  40                 
WENATCHEE      11   3   7   6  16  13 /   0   0  10  90 100  40                 
OMAK           12  -4   7   0  17  10 /   0   0   0  60  80  30                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR WATERVILLE PLATEAU...WENATCHEE AREA.                                   
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES.                                         
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY               
     NIGHT FOR MOSES LAKE AREA...UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
316 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH AN INVERTED             
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN TO EASTERN IA.  RELATIVELY            
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO                 
GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING              
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  UPSTREAM REPORTS SHOW                 
GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH ISOLATED 5-6 INCH                    
AMOUNTS.  SE FLOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT HASNT BEEN THAT RESPONSIVE TO               
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT HAVE TO THINK THAT WILL QUICKLY             
CHANGE AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN.  AS FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING                 
SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH INCREASES...SNOW ACCUMS AND HEADLINES ARE THE              
OBVIOUS FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.                                     
TONIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE                
PUSHING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OUR DIRECTION.  STRONG POCKET OF             
-DIVQ ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THE               
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE                 
STATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS FORCING WILL            
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT...AND GIVE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE               
WISCONSIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW.  LOOKING AT MODEL                         
CROSS-SECTIONS...MUCH OF THIS FORCING IS ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH             
ZONE...SUGGESTING HIGHER END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS BETWEEN 15-25:1 IS              
THE WAY TO GO.  OTHER TECHNIQUES LIKE THE ROEBBER/COBB ALSO SAY THAT            
15-20:1 RATIOS ARE MORE LIKELY.  MODEL QPFS SUGGEST ANYWHERE BETWEEN            
0.25 TO 0.35 IN LIQUID WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                    
TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER AN 12-18               
HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL RESIDE              
OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO 6-9 HOURS OF SE FLOW                
LAKE ENHANCEMENT.  HAVE TOSSED AROUND THE IDEA OF UPGRADING TO                  
WARNINGS DUE TO THIS ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY HEADING NORTH OVER                
KEWAUNEE/DOOR/MARINETTE WHERE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR THE LONGEST.               
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH CURRENT STRUGGLING LAKE EFFECT...AND IN                
COLLABORATION WITH MQT...FEEL ITS BEST TO STAY THE COURSE AND LET               
THE EVENING CREW SEE HOW THIS ENHANCEMENT EVOLVES BEFORE OPENING                
ANOTHER CAN OF WORMS. LASTLY...AS THE COLD FRONT GRINDS TO A HALT               
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FIRST ACROSS               
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND                    
DRIFTING SNOW.                                                                  
TOMORROW...WITH THE UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THE INVERTED                  
TROUGH HANGS UP ACROSS THE U.P./WI BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING               
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH WHILE WASHING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NORTH            
TO NW WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS AT 850MB WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE              
DAY AS IT BRINGS DOWN COLDER AIR IN THE NEG UPPER TEENS.  THIS WILL             
EVENTUALLY CRANK UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARDS             
VILAS AND ONEIDA COUNTIES THAT WILL ADD ON SEVERAL MORE INCHES                  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE                    
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE                 
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST                  
AREA...AND SPECIFICALLY INTO VILAS COUNTY WHERE 2-4 ADDITIONAL                  
INCHES WILL FALL.  OTHERWISE...A GENERAL HALF INCH SOUTH TO 3 NORTH             
LOOKS GOOD.  WITH THE INVADING ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY NW WIND...TEMPS             
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL WI TO THE                 
LOWER 20S OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA.  WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH -20F              
OVER CENTRAL WI.                                                                
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN                
CONTINUES...WITH LINGERING LES...BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS           
SUN NGT INTO MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW TUES INTO WEDS...             
AND PERHAPS ANOTHER STG SYSTEM WITH MIXED PCPN AT THE END OF THE WORK           
WEEK.                                                                           
WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVG ACROSS VILAS/ONEIDA          
COUNTIES...WHERE RESIDUAL LK-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AN ADDL             
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK             
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS WSTRN LK SUP. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE                
GRADIENT...CAA...AND AN INCREASING ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WILL KEEP               
BLUSTERY/WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE EVG HOURS...             
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT                   
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE FCST...BUT BUMPED UP TO DEFINITE                   
BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LKSHR...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 TO 40                 
MPH ARE LIKELY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO ISSUE A                    
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF BLIZZARD WARNING FOR              
THE LKSHR COUNTIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY NEED WIND              
CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES...AS WIND CHILLS PLUMMET TO -20 TO -30                 
OVER ALL BUT FAR NE WI SUNDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN BLO CRITERIA INTO              
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BENEATH A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM              
ON MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...STG ISENT LIFT WILL BRING SNOW               
BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH                  
STG DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 40+ KT LLJ...AND               
MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 2.5-3.0 G/KG...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE               
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ADVISORY EVENT. WHAT IS PERHAPS EVEN              
MORE INTERESTING IS THE STG SFC WAVE THAT THE ECMWF DEEPENS ALONG               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND MOVES THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LKS ON                 
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS WAS SHOWING SOMETHING SIMILAR ABOUT 3 MODEL                  
RUNS AGO...LENDING A LITTLE MORE CREDENCE TO THIS SOLN. MADE SOME               
LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEDS FCST...AND INCREASED POPS TO                
LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS                  
COULD BE THE SECOND PUNCH OF A DECENT SNOW STORM.                               
A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURS DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                 
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH PCPN DEVELOPING DUE TO INCREASING ISENT LIFT                
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG                     
THROUGH THE RGN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS                
THE TRACK...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN THE                
WARM SECTOR LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF WI...AND ASSOC PCPN TYPE                    
ISSUES. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...RAISED TEMPS...                
AND MENTIONED A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FRIDAY FCST FOR NOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE                 
DIMINISHING FIRST AT AUW/CWA LATE.  CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW WILL                 
GENERALLY RANGE FROM LIFR TO IFR. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR             
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS NEAR RHI WHERE A             
LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BOOST                
SNOWFALL RATES.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT            
FOR CWA/AUW AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR RHI/GRB WHICH WILL CAUSE                   
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TREND IN THE                  
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.                               
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ011>013-                   
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.                                    
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                     
WIZ005-010.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MPC/KIECKBUSCH                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
300 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS MULTI-THREAT                
WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. IN FACT...WE                    
STRONGLY ENCOURAGE THE BROADCAST MEDIA TO EMPHASIZE TO THE PUBLIC               
THAT THIS STORM SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY.                                    
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD DISTINCT ARCTIC FRONT ENTERING                   
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA AS OF 21Z...WITH TROWAL EXTENDING               
FROM MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG. SIGNIFICANT              
DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE NOTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND                 
THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO                   
35KTS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED             
NEAR NORTH DAKOTA CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO              
SOUTHWEST MN. SNOWFALL WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA             
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN             
THE 270K-280K LAYER.                                                            
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH IN OVERALL DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY             
FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WAS BASED ON EXCELLENT CLUSTERING OF UPPER               
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES IN THE 20.12Z DATA SUITE OF NCEP AND                 
EUROPEAN MODELS. IN ADDITION...20.12Z ARX HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS                
CORROBORATED THIS DATA...AS DID 20.15Z SREF PROBABILISTIC DATA.                 
LOOKING AHEAD...THERE WERE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON NEXT SYSTEM TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL SUITE                   
SUGGESTED A FASTER PROGRESSION THAN NAM/WRF...AS DID 15.12Z SREF.               
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS                 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT SAME                        
TIME...ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                   
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED TO PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...              
AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TROWAL ROTATES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. MAIN              
THREATS THEN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT              
BLOWING SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.                                     
20.12Z ARXMESOWRF AND ARXRUCWRF INDICATED CORE OF 850MB WINDS OF                
45-50KTS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. EVEN SO...BUFKIT FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED 850MB MOMENTUM TRANSFER AROUND 40KTS TO BRUSH               
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST                 
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RESIDES A            
BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER                       
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS SITES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN WINTER              
STORM WARNING AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY TO BEST ADDRESS MULTI-THREATS.            
EVEN SO...LOW DENSITY SNOW SHOULD BLOW CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...                  
ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IOWA             
AND RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHWEST WI. NEAR BLIZZARD AND NEAR WHITEOUT                  
CONDITIONS WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THIS SHOULD            
BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING INITIAL 2-6 HOURS FROM ONSET OF                       
WINDS...UNTIL SNOW COMPACTS AND THUS VISIBILITY IMPROVES. THIS BASED            
ON WORK DONE BY JUNGBLUTH IN 1998...AS WELL OTHER WORK DONE ON                  
BLOWING SNOW FORECASTING BY KAPELA...LEFTWICH AND VAN ESS IN 1995.              
NOT ONLY WILL BLOWING SNOW BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT COMBINE IN EFFECTS              
OF WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT            
AND ONE CAN SEE WHY THIS STORM IS DANGEROUS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS                
CONCERNING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...PLEASE REFERENCE                
LATEST SHORT TERM FORECASTS...WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS AND LOCAL               
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                      
SUNDAY...TROWAL SIGNATURE PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA...BRINGING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN                
CONTINUES TO BE WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING               
SNOW. 1000-850 LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO STEEPEN...WHICH SHOULD ONLY              
ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF TRANSFERRING MOMENTUM OF 40KTS TOWARD THE                 
SURFACE...AS SUGGESTED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS             
WILL BE STRONG...COMPACTED SNOW SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PREVENT TOO MUCH             
OF A SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.                                        
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS                
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. EVEN                     
SO...AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY COLD AND THUS WINDS                
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. WE ANTICIPATE              
HEADLINES WILL SHIFT TO WIND CHILLS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH                  
SHOULD BE ADDRESSED ONCE WINTER STORM WARNING HEADLINES HAVE                    
EXPIRED.                                                                        
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER                 
LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA...AS ACTIVE STORM TRACK                  
CONTINUES ACROSS NATIONS MIDSECTION. BASED ON GFS...EUROPEAN...AND              
SREF DATA SUITE...OPTED TO INCREASE AND/OR EXPAND SNOW PROBABILITIES            
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF               
DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE                
275K-285K LAYER.                                                                
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
WITH ONGOING WINTER STORM...DID NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME WITH DETAILS            
IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...FOCUS IN THIS TIME FRAME                     
CONTINUES TO BE ON PARADE OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS                   
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                
DETERMINISTIC 20.12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAD THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING            
OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THEREFORE...               
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL DETAILS. EVEN                
SO...WAVES EJECTING FROM SOUTHWEST U.S. ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR            
TO SUPPORT PERIODIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...CONTINUED SNOW                  
PROBABILITIES AS IN CURRENT DATA BASE...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO THE             
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.                                                               
OF NOTE...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNAL OF A POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE             
ISSUE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 20.12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO                 
INDICATE DIFFERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURES...WHICH LENDS LOW               
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO IDENTIFY ANY DETAIL WITH REGARD TO                  
PRECIPITATION TYPE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING               
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD                
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN                 
IOWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER BOTH TAF SITES LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST 15Z RUC MODEL                
INDICATING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 280K SURFACE OUT AHEAD OF                  
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF              
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. BOTH TAF                
SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE WITH RST CEILING                
LOWERING TO 100 FEET.                                                           
LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF TAF              
SITES. BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL                 
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS            
UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT BOTH TAF SITES. COMBINED WITH NEW SNOWFALL              
AND STRONG WINDS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A               
MILE AT RST TAF SITE BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW.                 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO             
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND                
WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...LIGHT SNOW WILL             
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCE            
VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. LATER TAF ISSUANCES            
WILL DIAGNOSE THE IMPACT THE WINDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE AT                
BOTH RST AND LSE SITES AFTER 18Z.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-              
     WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-                   
     WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                                      
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-              
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                        
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-              
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...THOMPSON                                                      
AVIATION..........DAS/DTJ                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1032 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...12Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN              
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA WITH A                
SWATH OF SNOW AHEAD OF IT ALREADY SPREADING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.             
TIMING TOOL AND 09Z SREF SUGGEST THIS SNOW WILL REACH THE FAR                   
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...WHICH IS A BIT QUICKER THAN                   
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  ALSO...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE                  
MICHIGAN CONTINUES BUT HAS BEEN BREAKING UP THROUGH THE MORNING AS A            
RESULT OF A LIGHTENING WIND FIELD.  THESE WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO                
PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE APPROACH OF SYNOPTIC            
MOISTURE...BELIEVE SNOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON.  WITH THESE ITEMS IN MIND...WILL MOVE UP THE START OF THE            
CURRENT ADVISORIES BY THREE HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE              
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST...POSSIBLY REACHING TWO INCHES BY THE               
START OF THE EVENING.  UNTIL THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ARRIVE...LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS THAN AN INCH.  UPDATED WSW AND               
ZONES ALREADY OUT.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008...                      
SHORT TERM...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER                  
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE MT BORDER. SIG VORT MAX SOUTH OF LOW OVER                 
WESTERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING EAST THROUGH                
ONTARIO...WITH INVERTED TROF OVER WESTERN MN. LOCALLY...EAST FLOW               
OFF LAKE HAS LED LES SHOWERS...MOVING INLAND TO GRB. STRONGEST                  
BANDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN KEWAUNEE AND SOUTHERN DOOR. SIG                    
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH LAND O LAKES AT -17 AND                   
LAKESHORE AREAS NEAR +20. COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES LEADING TO                 
COASTAL SURFACE WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE PAST HOUR OR SO WEAKENING                
LES. THOUGH WITH DAYBREAK AND CONTINUED ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BELIEVE         
BANDS WILL PUSH BACK ONSHORE...THOUGH WEAKER WITH LIMITED FETCH AS              
WINDS A BIT MORE EASTERLY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED WORDING.                      
ELSEWHERE INCREASING CLOUDS AND FEW FLURRIES SEEN IN WEAK WAA                   
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF. MODELS ALL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BEST                    
DYNAMICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS VORT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN        
WI/NORTHERN IL. CYCLOGENISIS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE TO THE SOUTH WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING BEST LIFT AROUND OR              
AFTER 00Z. HAVE PUSHED BACK START OF WSW SLIGHTLY. MODELS PRETTY                
CONSISTENT ON QPF...THOUGH LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH BETTER CAPTURE               
OF ONGOING LES. COBB METHOD SUGGESTS SNOW RATIONS BETWEEN 14 AND                
18 TO 1. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WINDS                   
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY EAST                   
GIVEN TROF LINGERING BACK OVER NORTHEAST WI. WINDS BECOME                       
FAVORABLE FOR LES OVER VILAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE               
ANY CHANGES TO AMOUNTS...THOUGH HAVE CONCERNS ON SNOW SHOWERS                   
STAYING TOGETHER WITH STRENGTH OF FLOW.                                         
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                         
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING AWAY AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
EAST OF WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY               
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PER COORDINATION WITH THE                   
SHORT TERM FORECASTER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE                    
ADVISORY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SINCE IT IS ALREADY A LONG                    
DURATION EVENT. BASED ON THE POWDERY NATURE OF THE SNOW...SHOULD                
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW SUNDAY                     
EVENING. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE DOOR PENINSULA WHERE SOME OF THE              
BAY HAS FROZEN OVER ALREADY. WHERE THE BAY HAS ICED OVER...THE                  
GUSTY WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COULD PRODUCE SOME NASTY CONDITIONS                  
OVER DOOR COUNTY WITH LOW VISIBILITIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO               
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND MAKE THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE              
ADVISORIES IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL                 
CONTINUE ACROSS VILAS COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                         
AFTER SUCH A COLD AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS LOWS MONDAY                  
NIGHT WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT AS                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE                    
INCREASE. IF THE HIGH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING                 
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY TANK UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM.                                                                         
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE                   
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW                    
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE                     
RAISED SNOW CHANCES FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR WEST...                  
AND RAISED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY AND                
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS MORNING.                  
TEMPERATURES ON THIS MORNING COULD REALLY TANK AS WELL. THE ONLY                
PROBLEM IS THE GFS DEPICTS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION                
BREAKING OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.                   
HAVE DECIDED NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS                   
THE ECMWF DID NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE.                                          
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA...POSSIBLY               
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS (FRIDAY) OR THAT                  
WEEKEND. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND FOLLOWED BASED ON                    
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE                
REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND              
ECMWF...PRECIPITATION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AS BOTH                 
MODELS BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 0 C AT 850MB AT SOME POINT                
DURING THE STORM. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND HOW                    
FAR NORTH THE VERY WARM AIR GETS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH SNOW IN THE FORECAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL MORE THAN                 
LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION TYPE TO INCLUDE RAIN...DD              
FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET AND MAY NEED TO REMOVE THE SNOW IN SOME                
AREAS. JUST TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SINCE IT                 
WILL BE THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS AND THERE WILL BE MANY PEOPLE               
TRAVELING...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                    
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS         
MORNING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL               
AREAS AS NEXT WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST                    
SUNDAY FOR WIZ011>013-020>022-038>040-048>050-073-074.                          
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ018-019-030-               
031-035>037-045.                                                                
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST                
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ005-010.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
505 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER                 
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE MT BORDER. SIG VORT MAX SOUTH OF LOW OVER                 
WESTERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING EAST THROUGH                
ONTARIO...WITH INVERTED TROF OVER WESTERN MN. LOCALLY...EAST FLOW               
OFF LAKE HAS LED LES SHOWERS...MOVING INLAND TO GRB. STRONGEST                  
BANDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN KEWAUNEE AND SOUTHERN DOOR. SIG                    
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH LAND O LAKES AT -17 AND                   
LAKESHORE AREAS NEAR +20. COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES LEADING TO                 
COASTAL SURFACE WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE PAST HOUR OR SO WEAKENING                
LES. THOUGH WITH DAYBREAK AND CONTINUED ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BELIEVE         
BANDS WILL PUSH BACK ONSHORE...THOUGH WEAKER WITH LIMITED FETCH AS              
WINDS A BIT MORE EASTERLY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED WORDING.                      
ELSEWHERE INCREASING CLOUDS AND FEW FLURRIES SEEN IN WEAK WAA                   
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF. MODELS ALL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BEST                    
DYNAMICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS VORT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN        
WI/NORTHERN IL. CYCLOGENISIS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE TO THE SOUTH WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING BEST LIFT AROUND OR              
AFTER 00Z. HAVE PUSHED BACK START OF WSW SLIGHTLY. MODELS PRETTY                
CONSISTENT ON QPF...THOUGH LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH BETTER CAPTURE               
OF ONGOING LES. COBB METHOD SUGGESTS SNOW RATIONS BETWEEN 14 AND                
18 TO 1. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WINDS                   
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY EAST                   
GIVEN TROF LINGERING BACK OVER NORTHEAST WI. WINDS BECOME                       
FAVORABLE FOR LES OVER VILAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE               
ANY CHANGES TO AMOUNTS...THOUGH HAVE CONCERNS ON SNOW SHOWERS                   
STAYING TOGETHER WITH STRENGTH OF FLOW.                                         
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING AWAY AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
EAST OF WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY               
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PER COORDINATION WITH THE                   
SHORT TERM FORECASTER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE                    
ADVISORY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SINCE IT IS ALREADY A LONG                    
DURATION EVENT. BASED ON THE POWDERY NATURE OF THE SNOW...SHOULD                
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW SUNDAY                     
EVENING. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE DOOR PENINSULA WHERE SOME OF THE              
BAY HAS FROZEN OVER ALREADY. WHERE THE BAY HAS ICED OVER...THE                  
GUSTY WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COULD PRODUCE SOME NASTY CONDITIONS                  
OVER DOOR COUNTY WITH LOW VISIBILITIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO               
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND MAKE THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE              
ADVISORIES IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL                 
CONTINUE ACROSS VILAS COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                         
AFTER SUCH A COLD AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS LOWS MONDAY                  
NIGHT WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT AS                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE                    
INCREASE. IF THE HIGH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING                 
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY TANK UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM.                                                                         
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE                   
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW                    
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE                     
RAISED SNOW CHANCES FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR WEST...                  
AND RAISED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY AND                
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS MORNING.                  
TEMPERATURES ON THIS MORNING COULD REALLY TANK AS WELL. THE ONLY                
PROBLEM IS THE GFS DEPICTS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION                
BREAKING OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.                   
HAVE DECIDED NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS                   
THE ECMWF DID NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE.                                          
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA...POSSIBLY               
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS (FRIDAY) OR THAT                  
WEEKEND. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND FOLLOWED BASED ON                    
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE                
REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND              
ECMWF...PRECIPITATION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AS BOTH                 
MODELS BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 0 C AT 850MB AT SOME POINT                
DURING THE STORM. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND HOW                    
FAR NORTH THE VERY WARM AIR GETS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH SNOW IN THE FORECAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL MORE THAN                 
LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION TYPE TO INCLUDE RAIN...DD              
FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET AND MAY NEED TO REMOVE THE SNOW IN SOME                
AREAS. JUST TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SINCE IT                 
WILL BE THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS AND THERE WILL BE MANY PEOPLE               
TRAVELING...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING...WITH               
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALL AREAS AS NEXT WINTER                
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                      
SUNDAY FOR WIZ011>013-020>022-038>040-048>050-073-074.                          
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST                    
SUNDAY FOR WIZ018-019-030-031-035>037-045.                                      
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST                
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ005-010.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TE/ECKBERG                                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND                    
VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED              
SURFACE LOW RACING TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                    
WIDESPREAD SNOW ENDED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS              
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS              
HAS GENERATED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO              
GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN.  ADDITIONALLY...FUNNELING OF THESE                 
WINDS ACROSS GREEN BAY AND THE FOX VALLEY HAS LED TO BEEFIER GUSTS              
THAN THE SURROUNDING AREAS (GUSTS TO 30 MPH) THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  MEANWHILE...NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW             
HAS ITS AIM ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR TOMORROW.  SO...CONCERNS             
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LAKE EFFECT ACCUMS AND TEMPS                         
TONIGHT...AND SNOW TIMING/ACCUMS/HEADLINES FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.              
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.               
LOW LEVEL WINDS EMANATING FROM THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL START OUT FROM            
THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE             
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.  INSTABILITY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN                
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT             
POSSIBILITIES. 850-700MB MOISTURE WILL THIN OUT SOMEWHAT AS DRIER               
AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  BUT THROUGH THE                       
EVENING...CANNOT REALLY FIND A REASON WHY ONGOING LIGHT NE LAKE                 
EFFECT WILL NOT CONTINUE WHILE THE FETCH ORIGINATES OVER FAR                    
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE              
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS...BUT CAN SEE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL                    
ACCUMS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH...DEPENDING              
ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS.  BELIEVE A LIGHTENING WIND FLOW WILL               
HELP DECREASE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN                          
WISCONSIN...REMOVED FROM THE MOISTURE FLUXES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  IF             
SUFFICIENT CLEARING DOES OCCUR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL                   
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.                                       
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG JET ENERGY.  INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH             
WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT            
LAKES BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING ASCENT VIA 700-500MB -DIVQ AND               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  MODELS STILL DIFFER ON ARRIVAL TIMING OF THE                
PRECIP WITH THE NAM ON THE SLOWER SIDE...AND GFS/SREF ON THE FASTER             
SIDE...BRINGING HIGH POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TOMORROW MORNING.  AT              
THIS POINT...PREFER THE FASTER TIMING AND WILL BRING IN HIGHER POPS             
FOR THE MORNING...BUT TRY TO SHOW MORE OF GRADIENT.  SNOW WILL THEN             
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.  TAKING A            
LOOK AT A GFS CROSS-SECTION...MOST OF THE LIFT WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE             
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND INSTABILITY ISNT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  SO             
THINK SNOW WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY REACH UP TO A COUPLE             
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW                
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (MORE BELOW)...BUT WILL START                 
WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS            
INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR THIS WEEKEND`S EVENT...AND PCPN TRENDS WITH               
OTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ON TUES/TUES NGT AND THU-FRI.              
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WX               
HEADLINES. SNOW ASSOC WITH ISENT LIFT/WAA SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS              
MOST OF THE FA BY 00Z/SUN...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY                      
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY                 
EVG. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST TO OUR EAST ALONG THE               
ARCTIC BOUNDARY AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATE SAT NGT.               
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER N                    
WI...THEN GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT                   
SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO SAT NGT...                      
FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER ACCUMS ON SUNDAY. ACCUMS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY                
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR              
NC WI...WHERE LES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS COLD NNW WINDS CROSS                
WSTRN LK SUP. LES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVG...THEN DIMINISH               
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND WINDS BACK TO A WNW DIRECTION.               
EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN C/EC WI...TO                 
6 TO 8 INCHES NORTH WITH PSBL 10 INCH AMOUNTS IN WSTRN VILAS/NW                 
ONEIDA COUNTIES. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER A LONG                     
PERIOD...ROUGHLY 24 TO 30 HOURS (30-36 HOURS IN NC WI)...SO                     
GENERALLY FALL BLO WARNING CRITERIA.                                            
HAVE TO FACTOR IN WINDS WITH THIS EVENT TOO...ALTHOUGH EFFECTS                  
HERE WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OFFICES TO OUR WEST ADN SOUTH. WINDS             
WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO                  
BAGGY CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE LINGERING FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE               
EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS C/EC WI SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE              
REST OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE                
DRIFTING SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.                                          
HAD THREE VIABLE OPTIONS FOR HEADLINES...ISSUE NOTHING RIGHT NOW...             
ISSUE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BORDERLINE WATCH...OR GO WITH A HIGH                 
CONFIDENCE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OPTED TO GO WITH THE ADVISORY               
ATTM...MAINLY DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER A LONG              
PERIOD...AND MARGINAL BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE IN THE EVENT.                 
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN EASILY UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO               
A WARNING...IF NEEDED. THE MOST LIKELY SITUATIONS FOR AN UPGRADE                
WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW JUST                  
NORTH OF THE DEEPENING H7/H5 LOWS AS THEY CROSS THE FA LATE                     
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...OR HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMS IN NC WI               
DUE TO GREATER THAN EXPECTED LES SUNDAY AFT/EVG.                                
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 40-50 KT                  
LLJ TAKES AIM ON WI. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR                     
NOW.                                                                            
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE RGN DURING THE THU-FRI                  
TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY PULL SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE RGN...                
RESULTING IN PCPN TYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE                
AND JUST MENTION A CHC OF SNOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NE WINDS ARE GENERATING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
NEAR GRB...WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS                  
THROUGH THE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS               
ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES...AND CIGS WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN            
VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TOMORROW                  
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES.  VSBYS WITHIN THE SNOW              
FROM THE STORM WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY                   
FOR WIZ011>013-020>022-038>040-048>050-073-074.                                 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY                  
FOR WIZ018-019-030-031-035>037-045.                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST                     
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ005-010.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MPC/KIECKBUSCH                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
219 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...NOTE TO MEDIA - NEW HEADLINES FOR THIS WEEKEND CAN BE                 
FOUND BELOW. OPTED FOR WINTER WX ADVISORIES INSTEAD OF A WATCH                  
AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE 4-6 INCH ACCUMS SOUTH...6 TO 8 INCHES                  
NORTH (WITH UP TO 10 INCHES IN THE LK SUP SNOW BELT) OVER A                     
24-30 HOUR PERIOD...WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT THE                       
TAIL END OF THE EVENT. MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW LATER.                            
KIECKBUSCH                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008...                     
UPDATE...13Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS...AND LATEST IR/WV/RADAR                  
IMAGERY SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS DRIVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS               
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED                
WITH 850-700MB FGEN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE IS               
BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE LIGHTER 1 1/2-4SM               
SNOWS CONTINUE TO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA.  TIMING TOOL PEGS THE BACK               
EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF               
THE STATE TO REACH THE FOX VALLEY BY NOON.  ONCE THIS BACK EDGE                 
MOVES THROUGH...WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE                     
SHOWERY...SIMILAR TO WHATS OCCURRING FARTHER SW NEAR LACROSSE AND               
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE TO BEGIN TRIMMING                   
HEADLINES ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  POINTS               
FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL SEE SNOW INTENSITY                     
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS AS WELL...BUT WILL            
STILL HAVE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CAUSE 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY              
AFTERNOON.  NEW ZONE UPDATES AND HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS OUT SHORTLY.            
MPC                                                                             
DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008...                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
MAJOR FOCUS OF THE FORECAST ON ONGOING SYSTEM AND HEADLINES. MADE               
ONE CHANGE TO DOWNGRADE WARNING TO ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TIER OF                
COUNTIES. LEFT ADVISORY IN TACK TO THE NORTH...THOUGH LOWERED                   
AMOUNTS. WITH SNOW EXPECTED DURING MORNING COMMUTE...DID NOT WANT               
TO DROP TOTALLY.                                                                
STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN MO...WITH BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER               
CENTRAL IL/IN. MODEL FORECASTS FOR TRACK LOOK GOOD...QUICKLY                    
MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NOON. SIG              
DYNAMICS WITH UPPER SYSTEM/JET THROUGH 12Z...THEN MOVES OFF EAST.               
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHERN                     
WI...WITH REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH HOUR RATES. HEAVIER SNOW NOW                   
LIFTING NORTH INTO WAUTOMA AND OSHKOSH AREAS...WITH SPOTTER IN                  
WAUTOMA AREA REPORTING VISBY DOWN TO 500 FT. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND                
TIME TO SATURATE COLUMN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER                
NORTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH...CONVECTIVE AREA OVER IA ASSOCIATED WITH             
UPPER WAVE.                                                                     
KEPT IDEA OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE LAKESHORE WITH SOME LAKE                  
ENHANCEMENT...GIVEN EASTERLY DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS SHOW DELTA T`S CONDITIONAL WITH LAKE BASED CAPES NOT TOO              
IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL MENTION SCATTERED WORDING WITH LIMITED                     
ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LES. WINDS GO LIGHT              
LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN...ENDING LES THREAT.                
NEXT SYSTEM/INVERTED TROF TO BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE               
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                                     
LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT THU. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS                   
EXTENT OF SNOW POTENTIAL LTR THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY NXT                   
WEEK. TEMPS APR TO STAY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.                
STG CLOSED UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN SAT NGT AS               
THE INVERTED SFC TROF ROTATES NEWD ACROSS WI. THERE IS STILL SOME               
QSTN AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION THE SFC LOW WL TAKE AS IT                   
LIFTS NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MDLS CONT TO                   
INDICATE STG ISEN LIFT...STG FORCING (ESP Q-G) AND STEEP MID-LVL                
LAPSE RATES CONSIDERING IT IS LATE DECEMBER. HEADLINES ARE A                    
FOREGONE CONCLUSION...HOWEVER WITH CURRENT STORM IN THE AREA AND                
AFT COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...PREFER TO LET                      
DAYSHIFT HANDLE THE NEW HEADLINES.                                              
EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS ON SUNDAY AS                 
THE CLOSED UPR LOW JOINS UP AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ALMOST                       
VERTICALLY STACKED. EVEN THO STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...                    
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN OVR NE WI...THUS SNOW WITH ADDL ACCUMULATIONS              
APR LIKELY THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL                
FOR LK EFFECT ENHANCEMENT OVR NRN WI AS WNDS BACK TO THE N-NW                   
DURING THE DAY. 8H TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -17C...DELTA-T VALUES                   
REACH 20 AND LK-INDUCED CAPES REACH CLOSE TO 400 J/KG. THIS COULD               
EASILY ADD ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO FAVORED AREAS OF VILAS              
CNTY. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH ON SUNDAY WL BE THE BLUSTERY                       
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH WL CREATE BLOWING AND                     
DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. ONSET OF CAA WL LIMIT DIURNAL RISE IN                 
TEMPS AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MAV GUID AS A RESULT.                   
SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD BE OVR WITH BY SUNDAY EVENING...LEAVING                    
LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI. MAY NEED TO RAISE                
POPS FOR VILAS CNTY AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO                 
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LTR SUNDAY NGT AND WNDS BACK ENUF SUCH                 
THAT BETTER SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY STAYS NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. THE                
REST OF NE WI TO REMAIN DRY BUT RATHER COLD AS 8H TEMPS HOVER                   
AROUND -16C. MIN TEMPS WL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLDS BREAK UP WITH                 
THE FRESH SNOW CVR. PREV VALUES MAY BE TOO COLD ESP IF CLDS HANG                
TOUGH AND HAVE RAISED VALUES A COUPLE OF DEGS. A RDG OF HI PRES                 
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LKS ON MON AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME                    
SUNSHINE AND LESS WND. AIRMASS OVR WI STILL RATHER COLD AND HAVE                
KEPT TEMPS BLO THE MEX GUID. THAT BEING SAID...EXPECT THE SUN TO                
AT LEAST TRY AND ADD A FEW DEGS TO THE TEMPS. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE               
OF DEGS TO THE PREV FCST.                                                       
THE SFC RDG QUICKLY DEPARTS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LKS MON NGT AND                
ALLOWS WNDS TO BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. A NEW SHRTWV                 
TROF IS PROGGED TO MOV ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH LEE-SIDE                         
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVR SE CO. LOOK FOR CLDS TO QUICKLY RETURN              
TO NE WI MON NGT WITH TEMPS DROPPING EARLY AND THEN BECMG STEADY                
OVRNGT. QSTNS REMAIN AS TO THE AMT OF DIGGING THIS SHRTWV TROF                  
TAKES ON DURING THE DAY TUE. GFS AND CANADIAN DIG THE TROF TOWARD               
THE SRN PLAINS WHICH KEEPS THE SFC LOW OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE                
ECMWF SWINGS THE SHRTWV TROF NEWD TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST WITH THE               
SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OVR THE NRN PLAINS. SUCH VAST DIFFERENCES                 
PREVENT ME FROM MAKING ANY CHGS TO TUE`S FCST AND HAVE KEPT A CHC               
OF LGT SNOW DUE TO INCREASING ISEN LIFT.                                        
TUE NGT INTO WED`S FCST TO BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE SHRTWV TROF               
GOES (LIFTS NE OR DIGS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD TX). A WEAKER                  
SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO TRACK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY                
WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD KEEP THE SFC LOW MORE TOWARD THE TN               
VALLEY. HAVE KEPT SML CHC POPS GOING FOR TUE NGT AND MAY NEED TO                
ADD POPS ON WED IN LTR FCSTS IF THE NRN TRACK ENDS UP CORRECT. HI               
PRESS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR THU AND KEEP THE WEATHER               
QUIET OVR NE WI.                                                                
AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW AT GRB WILL IMPROVE              
BY MIDDAY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD SHIFTS EAST.  STILL               
SOME LIGHTER SNOW OUT WITH IFR VSBYS ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE MN/WI               
BORDER WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES OCCASIONALLY FOR MUCH OF THE             
AFTERNOON.  MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND            
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH MVFR            
AT GRB CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY                   
FOR WIZ011>013-020>022-038>040-048>050-073-074.                                 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY                  
FOR WIZ018-019-030-031-035>037-045.                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST                     
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ005-010.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1047 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...13Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS...AND LATEST IR/WV/RADAR                 
IMAGERY SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS DRIVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS               
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED                
WITH 850-700MB FGEN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE IS               
BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE LIGHTER 1 1/2-4SM               
SNOWS CONTINUE TO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA.  TIMING TOOL PEGS THE BACK               
EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF               
THE STATE TO REACH THE FOX VALLEY BY NOON.  ONCE THIS BACK EDGE                 
MOVES THROUGH...WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE                     
SHOWERY...SIMILAR TO WHATS OCCURRING FARTHER SW NEAR LACROSSE AND               
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE TO BEGIN TRIMMING                   
HEADLINES ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  POINTS               
FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL SEE SNOW INTENSITY                     
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS AS WELL...BUT WILL            
STILL HAVE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CAUSE 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY              
AFTERNOON.  NEW ZONE UPDATES AND HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS OUT SHORTLY.            
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2008...                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
MAJOR FOCUS OF THE FORECAST ON ONGOING SYSTEM AND HEADLINES. MADE               
ONE CHANGE TO DOWNGRADE WARNING TO ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TIER OF                
COUNTIES. LEFT ADVISORY IN TACK TO THE NORTH...THOUGH LOWERED                   
AMOUNTS. WITH SNOW EXPECTED DURING MORNING COMMUTE...DID NOT WANT               
TO DROP TOTALLY.                                                                
STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN MO...WITH BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER               
CENTRAL IL/IN. MODEL FORECASTS FOR TRACK LOOK GOOD...QUICKLY                    
MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NOON. SIG              
DYNAMICS WITH UPPER SYSTEM/JET THROUGH 12Z...THEN MOVES OFF EAST.               
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHERN                     
WI...WITH REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH HOUR RATES. HEAVIER SNOW NOW                   
LIFTING NORTH INTO WAUTOMA AND OSHKOSH AREAS...WITH SPOTTER IN                  
WAUTOMA AREA REPORTING VISBY DOWN TO 500 FT. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND                
TIME TO SATURATE COLUMN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER                
NORTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH...CONVECTIVE AREA OVER IA ASSOCIATED WITH             
UPPER WAVE.                                                                     
KEPT IDEA OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE LAKESHORE WITH SOME LAKE                  
ENHANCEMENT...GIVEN EASTERLY DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS SHOW DELTA T`S CONDITIONAL WITH LAKE BASED CAPES NOT TOO              
IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL MENTION SCATTERED WORDING WITH LIMITED                     
ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LES. WINDS GO LIGHT              
LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN...ENDING LES THREAT.                
NEXT SYSTEM/INVERTED TROF TO BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE               
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                                     
LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT THU. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS                   
EXTENT OF SNOW POTENTIAL LTR THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY NXT                   
WEEK. TEMPS APR TO STAY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.                
STG CLOSED UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN SAT NGT AS               
THE INVERTED SFC TROF ROTATES NEWD ACROSS WI. THERE IS STILL SOME               
QSTN AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION THE SFC LOW WL TAKE AS IT                   
LIFTS NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MDLS CONT TO                   
INDICATE STG ISEN LIFT...STG FORCING (ESP Q-G) AND STEEP MID-LVL                
LAPSE RATES CONSIDERING IT IS LATE DECEMBER. HEADLINES ARE A                    
FOREGONE CONCLUSION...HOWEVER WITH CURRENT STORM IN THE AREA AND                
AFT COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...PREFER TO LET                      
DAYSHIFT HANDLE THE NEW HEADLINES.                                              
EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS ON SUNDAY AS                 
THE CLOSED UPR LOW JOINS UP AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ALMOST                       
VERTICALLY STACKED. EVEN THO STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...                    
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN OVR NE WI...THUS SNOW WITH ADDL ACCUMULATIONS              
APR LIKELY THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL                
FOR LK EFFECT ENHANCEMENT OVR NRN WI AS WNDS BACK TO THE N-NW                   
DURING THE DAY. 8H TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -17C...DELTA-T VALUES                   
REACH 20 AND LK-INDUCED CAPES REACH CLOSE TO 400 J/KG. THIS COULD               
EASILY ADD ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO FAVORED AREAS OF VILAS              
CNTY. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH ON SUNDAY WL BE THE BLUSTERY                       
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH WL CREATE BLOWING AND                     
DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. ONSET OF CAA WL LIMIT DIURNAL RISE IN                 
TEMPS AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MAV GUID AS A RESULT.                   
SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD BE OVR WITH BY SUNDAY EVENING...LEAVING                    
LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI. MAY NEED TO RAISE                
POPS FOR VILAS CNTY AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO                 
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LTR SUNDAY NGT AND WNDS BACK ENUF SUCH                 
THAT BETTER SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY STAYS NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. THE                
REST OF NE WI TO REMAIN DRY BUT RATHER COLD AS 8H TEMPS HOVER                   
AROUND -16C. MIN TEMPS WL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLDS BREAK UP WITH                 
THE FRESH SNOW CVR. PREV VALUES MAY BE TOO COLD ESP IF CLDS HANG                
TOUGH AND HAVE RAISED VALUES A COUPLE OF DEGS. A RDG OF HI PRES                 
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LKS ON MON AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME                    
SUNSHINE AND LESS WND. AIRMASS OVR WI STILL RATHER COLD AND HAVE                
KEPT TEMPS BLO THE MEX GUID. THAT BEING SAID...EXPECT THE SUN TO                
AT LEAST TRY AND ADD A FEW DEGS TO THE TEMPS. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE               
OF DEGS TO THE PREV FCST.                                                       
THE SFC RDG QUICKLY DEPARTS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LKS MON NGT AND                
ALLOWS WNDS TO BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. A NEW SHRTWV                 
TROF IS PROGGED TO MOV ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH LEE-SIDE                         
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVR SE CO. LOOK FOR CLDS TO QUICKLY RETURN              
TO NE WI MON NGT WITH TEMPS DROPPING EARLY AND THEN BECMG STEADY                
OVRNGT. QSTNS REMAIN AS TO THE AMT OF DIGGING THIS SHRTWV TROF                  
TAKES ON DURING THE DAY TUE. GFS AND CANADIAN DIG THE TROF TOWARD               
THE SRN PLAINS WHICH KEEPS THE SFC LOW OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE                
ECMWF SWINGS THE SHRTWV TROF NEWD TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST WITH THE               
SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OVR THE NRN PLAINS. SUCH VAST DIFFERENCES                 
PREVENT ME FROM MAKING ANY CHGS TO TUE`S FCST AND HAVE KEPT A CHC               
OF LGT SNOW DUE TO INCREASING ISEN LIFT.                                        
TUE NGT INTO WED`S FCST TO BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE SHRTWV TROF               
GOES (LIFTS NE OR DIGS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD TX). A WEAKER                  
SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO TRACK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY                
WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD KEEP THE SFC LOW MORE TOWARD THE TN               
VALLEY. HAVE KEPT SML CHC POPS GOING FOR TUE NGT AND MAY NEED TO                
ADD POPS ON WED IN LTR FCSTS IF THE NRN TRACK ENDS UP CORRECT. HI               
PRESS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR THU AND KEEP THE WEATHER               
QUIET OVR NE WI.                                                                
AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW AT GRB WILL IMPROVE              
BY MIDDAY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD SHIFTS EAST.  STILL               
SOME LIGHTER SNOW OUT WITH IFR VSBYS ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE MN/WI               
BORDER WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES OCCASIONALLY FOR MUCH OF THE             
AFTERNOON.  MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND            
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH MVFR            
AT GRB CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ040-                  
045-048>050.                                                                    
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                       
WIZ020>022-031-037>039-073-074.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
406 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                     
...BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                  
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS.                                                                       
TAFS OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ARRIVAL OF STG COLD FRONT INTO                  
KSBN SOMETIME AROUND 7Z AND KFWA A FEW HOURS LATER. QUICK INCREASE              
IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE                   
COMMON. EXPECTED BURST OF SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW NOW MOVING KSBN                 
AND WILL CLIP KFWA AS WELL. AFTER THAT MAINLY BLOWING SNOW AND ON               
AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS TO PREVAIL UNTIL MORNING WHEN THINGS                       
TRANSITION TO MORE LAKE EFFECT AND FOCUS TO NEAR OR NORTH OF KSBN.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-          
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.             
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST. EXTREMELY              
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO INDIANA. AT INDY            
HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT 130 AM. RUC HAS 48 MPH WINDS AT 2,500              
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE               
ADVISORY LEVELS CENTRAL AND N AND CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH. THE                
WINDS WILL DROP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE WAY TO WARM            
WITH THE TEMPS. THE NAM WHICH IS THE COLDEST AT HUF AT 09Z HAS 20               
THEY WILL BE 16 OR MAYBE LOWER. THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -25                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS WAY BACK TODAY. THEY MAY             
TRY TO REBOUND SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COLD AIR SC MOVING IN               
THIS WILL SLOW THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OF               
THE YEAR. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO ADVSRY LEVELS.              
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH              
ENOUGH WITH THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO TO KEEP THE ADVSRY GOING                  
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WEDGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST              
OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WILL                
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.                
MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR SOME CLRG ON MON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE THINS AND            
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY ALONG WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE.              
NICE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT SHOULD BRING              
SOME LGT SN IN TUES PM AND CHRISTMAS EVE PERHAPS MIXED WITH RN S PER            
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS.                                         
MODELS SUGGESTING MORE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED THAN EITHER HPC OR                
THIS MRNGS FCST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE                
TRENDING TOWARD A PROLONGED PD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING            
CD FNT. SO...OVERRUNNING SECENARIO PSBL WITH RN/SN MIX SUGGESTED BY             
THICKNESSES. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE USUALLY MORE ACCURATE             
ECMWF AND HAVE PRECIP IN ON CHRISTMAS NGT                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                                        
CHALLENGING FCST IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR CUT AS OF MIDNIGHT. ARCTIC              
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z WITH GUSTY WEST              
WINDS AND IMPROVING VIS CONDS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND EVENTUALLY TO             
VFR BY 08Z. CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS                
EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 09Z. MODEL GUIDANCE                  
APPEARS TOO HIGH WITH RH FCSTS IN THE LOWEST 5KFT FEET WHEN COMPARED            
TO REALITY ON SATELLITE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN THE             
FCST INTO SUNDAY. I DO EXPECT SOME STRATOCU TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER                 
SUNRISE BUT AS MENTIONED WE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL            
PERSIST WITH GUSTS AOA 30KTS EXPECTED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7AM TO 7PM SUNDAY...                                      
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST                   
MONDAY...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...LJ                                                                   
PUBLIC...SH                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1040 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
230 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                             
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                  
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS.               
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS               
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT            
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH             
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL POTENTIAL              
AS WELL AS POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                        
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
ZONES DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHICH                
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST               
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST FLURRIES                
SOUTH OF THAT AREA. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z          
SO WILL LEAVE FLURRIES OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES.                                
FOR THE SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY...DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL AREA OF                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND            
MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE AFTER 06Z                
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE TUESDAY EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT LEFT POPS             
AT SLIGHT CHANCE.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT LEAVING             
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO HAVE A SMALL AREA OF                 
FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SOUTH ZONES OTHERWISE WILL REMOVE POPS. ALL               
OTHER PERIODS...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY WITH NIL              
POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.                                                         
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN QUESTION DUE TO WIND SPEED BEHIND THE                  
EXITING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE WORST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE              
ABOUT 12 MPH OR JUST ABOVE THE CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE             
AND AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LOWER IF THE GFS WINDS            
ARE RIGHT. LOWER WINDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE RUC. THERE MAY BE A            
FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE BORDERLINE OR JUST               
ABOVE CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL GOES AWAY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z.                      
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS             
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MINS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR JUST BELOW             
ZERO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING SOME WARMER AIR               
BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO WITH SINGLE              
DIGIT READINGS. MINS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY NIGHT WITH                    
INCREASING CLOUDS. READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. TUESDAY NIGHT               
LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME POSSIBLE             
SNOW ON THE GROUND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE              
TEENS SUNDAY WARMING TO THE 20S MONDAY/TUESDAY.                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WESTERLY FLOW WILL             
DOMINATE THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES                
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE GFS                 
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A WINTER STORM                
WHILE THE EUROPEAN TAKES AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE                
FORECAST DRY AND WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO GET RESOLUTION ON               
THIS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO ABOVE NORMAL 40S WITH                
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING. MINS WILL RISE BACK TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE               
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.                                
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1040 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT               
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW                 
DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED WITH TRANSIENT MVFR AT KGLD AROUND 05Z. LOW            
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KGLD/KMCK TAF               
SITES AFTER 06-07Z. A SECONDARY CONCERN REMAINS PATCHY FOG                      
DEVELOPING IN THE KMCK AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM REMAIN LARGE             
LATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY CROSSING              
FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY THRESHOLDS AT KMCK WITH NO INCLUSION AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW HAS SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH AND WRN CWA. DRY AIR ABOVE H9 EVIDENT            
ON EVENING TAMDAR AT ESC AND ON THE 00Z RAOB AT APX IS LEADING TO               
JUST FLURRIES IN THE EAST. DESPITE PERISISTENT VSBY 1-2SM...SNOW HAS            
ONLY ADDED UP TO 2 INCHES AT THE MOST FOR THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...                
LOOKS LIKE LOWER SNOW RATIOS...10-15:1...ARE LIMITING SNOW AMOUNTS.             
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN MAY STILL IMPACT NRN MEMOMINEE INTO                 
DELTA COUNTY...BUT WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS AND LACK OF A CONVERGENCE               
AREA SETTING UP YET...DID NOT EMPHASIZE REAL HEAVY SNOW FOR THOSE               
AREAS AND KEPT ADVY GOING. SPOTTER REPORT FM KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS              
EVENING DID INDICATE A FLUFFIER SNOW IS OCCURRING THERE.                        
OVERALL...DO TO THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND LESS QPF PROGGED THAN                 
EARLIER...LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AROUND AN INCH MOST            
SPOTS. DID NOT ALTER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS WHERE ESE WINDS PROVIDE             
POTENTIAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION (KEWEENAW AND SOUTH CNTRL). THOSE SPOTS             
COULD STILL SEE NIGHTTIME ACCUMS UP TO 5 INCHES.                                
LOW TEMPS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE NOW BECOME               
STEADY OR WILL RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES TO SUNDAY OR              
SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW/WITH SFC TROUGH                  
PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK TO COME ACROSS KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING...THEN            
INTO THE REST OF THE LK SUPERIOR ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.                 
AFTER THAT...FOCUSED HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE AFTN OVR FAR WEST AS                  
BETTER DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND H85                 
TEMPS NEAR -18C. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY KNOCK DOWN SNOW OVR THE              
CNTRL SLIGHTLY. STRONG WINDS (30-35 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER) WILL              
BLOW AND DRIFT SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING.              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE IN THIS REGARD. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ARE             
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS OVER              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES               
EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC             
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO FORECAST AREA               
AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z. A SURFACE LOW                  
EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RESULTING             
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN             
EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. ADVISORIES WILL KEEP              
ELSEWHERE AS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.                
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY FALL ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY               
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS IS FURTHER                    
SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR             
WARNING. HOWEVER...WRF/NAM12 SHOWING WINDS BACKING NORTH SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND             
LACK OF TERRAIN SUPPORT OF LES. THUS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT                 
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA TOO. AFTER COORDINATED WITH GRB DECIDED TO             
STAY WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                     
SUN NIGHT...EXPECT TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
WITH CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS WITH GOOD                  
UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ THROUGH 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH SNOW/WATER                
RATIOS SHOULD BE AOA 30/1 DURING THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED WINDY             
CONDITIONS...FRACTURING AND DRIFTING SHOULD REDUCE ACTUAL/OBSERVED              
SNOW TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH               
RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS...WITH THE GREATEST             
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE LIFT WILL OCCUR.             
OVERNIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS/ EXIT OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF AND LES SHOULD SHIFT            
TOWARD NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE                  
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
AS WINDS BACK TO WRLY BY MIDDAY MON...LES WILL SHIFT INTO                       
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE UPPER MI WHILE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER              
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN MON                  
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET CLOSER TO               
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE VALUES NEAR -10F WELL INLAND.                                
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL AND SFC               
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SNOW. MDLS TEMP/UVV/RH PROFILE SUGGEST SNOW/WATER MAY BE RELATIVELY             
LOW WITH BEST LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ. SO WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO             
0.20 RANGE AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 15/1 ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN              
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                        
WED...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
STRONGER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET                
FAVORED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS              
AND CMC DID NOT. IF THE EURO MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER HEAVY                      
SNOW EVENT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW IN N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                              
THU-SAT...THE FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CMC               
MDLS SCENARIO WHICH ALSO HAD DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLES. THE 06Z/12Z WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING A WEAKER NRN                  
STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN TIER AND DELAYING THE EJECTION OF A               
STRONGER SHRTWV FROM THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH A SW FLOW PATTERN AND              
STRONGER SE CONUS RIDGE...A SHRTWV AND SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH OR WEST            
OF CNTRL UPPER MI COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN                          
(SN/FZRA/PL/RA) AND A BRIEF WARMUP AOA FREEZING BY LATE FRI.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH SITES TONIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE            
AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH AREA. EXPECT IFR VSBY/CIGS WITH THE             
SNOW. PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW/POTENTIAL VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS                
AROUND 12Z AT CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...THEN BY                    
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT SAW. IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH               
SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITE DUE             
TO LK EFFECT SNOW...STRONG NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS...AND                 
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT SAW               
AND CMX BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND                
DIMINISHING WINDS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO               
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 OR              
40 KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT              
OF CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING                  
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GALE FORCE            
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS             
ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON                     
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES CRITERIA WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY AND THE              
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE                
FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.           
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.               
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR                    
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW HAS SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH AND WRN CWA. DRY AIR ABOVE H9 EVIDENT            
ON EVENING TAMDAR AT ESC AND ON THE 00Z RAOB AT APX IS LEADING TO               
JUST FLURRIES IN THE EAST. DESPITE PERISISTENT VSBY 1-2SM...SNOW HAS            
ONLY ADDED UP TO 2 INCHES AT THE MOST FOR THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...                
LOOKS LIKE LOWER SNOW RATIOS...10-15:1...ARE LIMITING SNOW AMOUNTS.             
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN MAY STILL IMPACT NRN MEMOMINEE INTO                 
DELTA COUNTY...BUT WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS AND LACK OF A CONVERGENCE               
AREA SETTING UP YET...DID NOT EMPHASIZE REAL HEAVY SNOW FOR THOSE               
AREAS AND KEPT ADVY GOING. SPOTTER REPORT FM KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS              
EVENING DID INDICATE A FLUFFIER SNOW IS OCCURRING THERE.                        
OVERALL...DO TO THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND LESS QPF PROGGED THAN                 
EARLIER...LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AROUND AN INCH MOST            
SPOTS. DID NOT ALTER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS WHERE ESE WINDS PROVIDE             
POTENTIAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION (KEWEENAW AND SOUTH CNTRL). THOSE SPOTS             
COULD STILL SEE NIGHTTIME ACCUMS UP TO 5 INCHES.                                
LOW TEMPS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE NOW BECOME               
STEADY OR WILL RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES TO SUNDAY OR              
SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW/WITH SFC TROUGH                  
PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK TO COME ACROSS KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING...THEN            
INTO THE REST OF THE LK SUPERIOR ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.                 
AFTER THAT...FOCUSED HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE AFTN OVR FAR WEST AS                  
BETTER DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND H85                 
TEMPS NEAR -18C. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY KNOCK DOWN SNOW OVR THE              
CNTRL SLIGHTLY. STRONG WINDS (30-35 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER) WILL              
BLOW AND DRIFT SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING.              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE IN THIS REGARD. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ARE             
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS OVER              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES               
EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC             
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO FORECAST AREA               
AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z. A SURFACE LOW                  
EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RESULTING             
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN             
EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. ADVISORIES WILL KEEP              
ELSEWHERE AS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.                
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY FALL ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY               
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS IS FURTHER                    
SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR             
WARNING. HOWEVER...WRF/NAM12 SHOWING WINDS BACKING NORTH SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND             
LACK OF TERRAIN SUPPORT OF LES. THUS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT                 
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA TOO. AFTER COORDINATED WITH GRB DECIDED TO             
STAY WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                     
SUN NIGHT...EXPECT TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
WITH CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS WITH GOOD                  
UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ THROUGH 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH SNOW/WATER                
RATIOS SHOULD BE AOA 30/1 DURING THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED WINDY             
CONDITIONS...FRACTURING AND DRIFTING SHOULD REDUCE ACTUAL/OBSERVED              
SNOW TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH               
RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS...WITH THE GREATEST             
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE LIFT WILL OCCUR.             
OVERNIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS/ EXIT OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF AND LES SHOULD SHIFT            
TOWARD NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE                  
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
AS WINDS BACK TO WRLY BY MIDDAY MON...LES WILL SHIFT INTO                       
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE UPPER MI WHILE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER              
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN MON                  
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET CLOSER TO               
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE VALUES NEAR -10F WELL INLAND.                                
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL AND SFC               
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SNOW. MDLS TEMP/UVV/RH PROFILE SUGGEST SNOW/WATER MAY BE RELATIVELY             
LOW WITH BEST LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ. SO WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO             
0.20 RANGE AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 15/1 ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN              
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                        
WED...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
STRONGER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET                
FAVORED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS              
AND CMC DID NOT. IF THE EURO MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER HEAVY                      
SNOW EVENT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW IN N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                              
THU-SAT...THE FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CMC               
MDLS SCENARIO WHICH ALSO HAD DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLES. THE 06Z/12Z WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING A WEAKER NRN                  
STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN TIER AND DELAYING THE EJECTION OF A               
STRONGER SHRTWV FROM THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH A SW FLOW PATTERN AND              
STRONGER SE CONUS RIDGE...A SHRTWV AND SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH OR WEST            
OF CNTRL UPPER MI COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN                          
(SN/FZRA/PL/RA) AND A BRIEF WARMUP AOA FREEZING BY LATE FRI.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW IS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MICHIGAN AS                
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT LGT             
SNOW...MOSTLY IFR VSBY/CIGS...TO START UP AT BOTH SITES BY MIDNIGHT.            
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW/POTENTIAL VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS LATE                 
TONIGHT AT CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...THEN BY LATE                  
SUNDAY MORNING AT SAW. IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY             
AFTN...EXPECT VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITE DUE TO LK EFFECT               
SNOW...STRONG NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS...AND SIGNIFICANT                  
BLOWING SNOW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO               
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 OR              
40 KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT              
OF CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING                  
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GALE FORCE            
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS             
ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON                     
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES CRITERIA WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY AND THE              
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE                
FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.           
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.               
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR                    
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
501 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN                   
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH                  
WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WILL MOVE                
QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SURGE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM                
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM-WRF AND THE LATEST RUC DUE TO THEIR                
BETTER HANDLING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE              
REGION TODAY.                                                                   
MODELS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE                  
REGION TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST DROP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW                    
REGION WHERE THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL INFILTRATE FIRST.                 
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS                
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 20 SOUTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE                
NE WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL                
ALSO GUST AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE AND MIXING                     
SCHEMES SUGGEST REGION WILL BE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY AND HAVE                
OPTED AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO COVER THE                 
WINDY CONDITIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE PLUMMETING WIND                
CHILL READINGS AND HAVE THUS ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE               
ENTIRE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES               
WILL APPROACH 20 BELOW NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5 BELOW SE.                          
SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THEREAFTER...INCREASING RH             
BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB WILL ENCROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW...               
ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AND ADVECT SE.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES                   
REGION AND AS HIGHER LOW LVL RH AIR MOVES SE ACROSS THE                         
REGION...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY TONIGHT. SFC                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING                   
HOURS...SO BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH                
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT                    
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 DUE TO AN                       
APPROACHING SFC TROF AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. HAVE RELIED ON                 
RAW NAM-WRF SFC TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SHOULD HANDLE               
THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS BETTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE               
FROM NEAR 0 NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. A WIND CHILL                      
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.                                                 
ON MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE                
OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FROM SW               
TO NE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE                     
MORNING ACRS THE NE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO               
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON...WIND CHILLS WILL RISE ABOVE               
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE                
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.                                                        
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY                  
EVENING...SKIES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THEREAFTER...MID              
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT               
DEVELOPING WX SYSTEM.                                                           
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE              
LOW AND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...BRING AN ABUNDANT SURGE OF                  
GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF                
PCPN ONSET BY TUESDAY AFTN. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...AIR                  
ALOFT WILL WARM MUCH QUICKER THAN AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL               
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO                   
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR                  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NW WITH SOME SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS                
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE RIVER. AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES           
TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WILL              
CONTINUE TO WARM AND ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD TURN OVER TO JUST RAIN                
BY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT                  
ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE UP TO AN INCH MAY FALL.                           
THE PROSPECTS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD ATTM.                  
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NW OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...                
SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS                       
SCENARIO WILL PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH                   
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CHANCES                 
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT IS MINIMAL              
AS SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE EXIT QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE              
BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS               
DAY PROVIDING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL                
THEN QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                    
MODELS VARYING SOME ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL               
KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE                
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN MAINLY RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
ARCTIC FRONT RAPIDLY APPCHG TERMINALS FROM THE WEST ERLY THIS                   
MRNG. EXPECT FROPA AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY BY 07Z...KILN AROUND 08Z AND               
KCMH/KLCK BTWN 08-09Z. AREAS OF -DZ/-FZDZ AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL              
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU...VSBYS                   
SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TO 5-6SM WITH CIGS LIFTING TO BTWN                       
500-1000FT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR              
-FZDZ FOR ABOUT THREE TO FOUR HOURS AFT FROPA. HAVE ELECTED TO                  
LEAVE ANY MENTION OF -FZDZ OUT AFT FROPA AS NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY              
OF PCPN IN ANY OBS TO THE WEST. ALSO...AS VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC              
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO REGION...PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR                  
-FZDZ WILL BECOME DISRUPTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL                  
AMEND IF -FZDZ CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.                 
CIGS WILL LIFT ABV 1000FT AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.           
THE OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR THIS FCST IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN               
WAKE OF THE FROPA. LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS AND GUSTS                 
AROUND 30KTS BY DAYBREAK WITH STRONGER WINDS THRU THE DAY. NOW                  
APPEARS THAT SC DECK WILL SCATTER OUT ACRS SRN FCST AREA SUN MRNG               
WITH POTENTIAL AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE                  
INCREASED SUNSHINE LIKELY TO PROMOTE STRONGER BNDRY LYR MIXING AND              
CONSEQUENTLY MAY LEAD TO INCREASES IN SFC WINDS THRU THE AFTN. ALL              
TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATER TODAY BUT EXPECT                    
CLOUDS TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN AT KCMH AND               
KLCK WHERE ANY CLEARING WILL BE CONFINED TO A FEW HOURS DURING                  
THE AFTN. POST FRNTL SC DECK WILL REASSERT ITSELF AND SPREAD BACK               
ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG AS SHARP MID LVL S/WV SWINGS THRU                  
REGION. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER BACK INTO MVFR CAT LATE. WINDS               
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GUSTY.                                         
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR                
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-060>062.                                    
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY             
     FOR OHZ054>056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY             
     FOR KYZ089>100.                                                            
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR                
     INZ050-058-059.                                                            
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY             
     FOR INZ066-073>075-080.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL                                                         
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
337 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY                                       
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES FACING THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING DEALS WITH               
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS & SNOWFALL THIS MORNING...AND SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.                                                 
CURRENTLY MSAS IS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH                
CWA ATTM...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AS SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE              
APPROACHES THE AREA. CURRENTLY KABR IS GUSTING TO 30KTS...WITH                  
KPIR GUSTING TO 44KTS. WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY WELL BELOW ZERO...WIND              
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA HAVING NO TROUBLE BEING MET. AS WRAP-AROUND              
WAA/TROWEL DROPS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE AN              
UPTICK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY 18Z WAA                  
FINALLY BEGINS TO WANE AS THETA-E FORCING BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL.                 
THE DECISION IS THEN WILL THERE BE ENOUGH LIGHT SNOW TO COUPLE                  
WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO JUSTIFY A HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING                     
SNOW...OR WILL THE WIND CHILL WARNING TAKE CENTER STAGE?                        
ATTM...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL WARNING DUE TO HIGHER                      
PERSONAL DANGER...BUT ADD A MENTION OF BLSN AND RESTRICTED VSBYS                
TO WSW STATEMENT. ALSO...WITH LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT MAIN                      
PRESSURE RISE AXIS WILL REACH THE ERN CWA BY 18Z THIS                           
AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND IN TIME THE WIND CHILL WARNING                 
THROUGH 22Z. LOCAL ABRWRF MODEL SHOWS THAT SFC WINDS WILL FALL                  
RATHER FAST THEREAFTER.                                                         
CWA THEN CATCHES A BRIEF BREAK...ALBEIT COLD...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                
MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MEX GUIDANCE VALUES              
WERE THE COLDEST...AND HAVE UNDERCUT THAT BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO.              
GIVEN STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE...NO CLOUDS FORECAST TO ADVECT IN               
UNTIL AFT 12Z MONDAY AND DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...SHOULD BE PRIME                
CONDITIONS TO MAXIMIZE RADITIONAL COOLING.                                      
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE                 
CWA. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH                  
ROBUST WAA MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. 85H/7H THETA-E FORCING                  
BECOMES PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY...AND 85H-7H              
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAA LIFTING INTO               
THE REGION. BUFKIT SHOWS THAT PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION MAY BE A                 
TAD HIGH...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEST VALUES OF LIFT THROUGH THE                  
LAYER. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT...AND                 
ALSO GONE WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT IN                  
ANTICIPATION OF STRONG WAA. AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT HOW QUICK THE                
SW PART OF THE CWA WILL MOISTEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR                
PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS 18Z-00Z                    
MONDAY GIVEN RAPID INCREASE SEEN IN THE 85H-7H LAYER SPEC                       
HUMIDITIES DURING THAT TIME. HAVE ALSO BOLSTERED THE SNOWFALL                   
TOTAL GRID FOR THE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY GRID.                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM END OF                
SHORT TERM PERIOD HAVING MOVED EAST INTO MN WITH MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP ALSO HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...HAVE                      
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR TUESDAY                
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS                    
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT                  
LOWS ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO QUITE POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS              
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WAA PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF                 
THE WEEK. GFS STILL HANGING ONTO A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO IGNORE THIS                  
FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE POPS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY REMOVED FOR THURSDAY               
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT IT APPEARS AS IF                      
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC                
IN SAYING THE NORTHERN CWA COULD SEE 20 DEGREES WHILE THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WARM INTO THE MID 20S.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE               
MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS OF -SN AND BLSN. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO               
AROUND 1/2 SM TO 1 SM AT TIMES ACROSS KPIR/KABR/KATY TERMINALS.                 
LESS SNOW COVER AT KMBG SHOULD PREVENT VSBYS FROM GETTING THIS                  
LOW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND              
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS                 
WILL BRING AN END TO THE BLSN.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-                   
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                   
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-               
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-            
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1040 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND INCREASING         
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AND ALL PRODUCTS              
SHOULD BE UPDATED AND OUT. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED               
WITH ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS CLEARED SKIES ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT                
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS PERSIST. ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP INCREASE                  
MIXING TO SOME EXTENT IN LOWER LEVELS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN                   
INCREASED WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE                  
AGAIN LATER TODAY. SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND PLOT SHOWING 50 TO 60               
KNOTS AT 12Z UPSTREAM TO EASTERN IA AND WESTERN WI. BUFKIT                      
SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 45 KNOTS FROM INVERSION               
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE ICING SITUATION AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES                    
ALREADY OCCURRING...DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY MOST                  
AREAS. HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A LIGHT SNOW                  
OCCURRED AND SNOW COVER ALREADY EXISTS...WENT WITH A WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED IMPACT OF BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL                 
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PRODUCT                   
COMBINES THE WIND THREAT WITH THE BLOWING SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY OF                
HEADLINES.                                                                      
NEXT FOCUS WAS ON WIND CHILL CRITERIA. AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING               
LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAD NO CLUE ON SEVERITY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS             
AND ONLY COLLABORATION ISSUES KEPT US FROM GOING COLDER. NOW THAT IT            
IS HERE AND TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...UPGRADES ARE NEEDED FROM            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO WARNINGS. SEVERAL SITES ALREADY AT OR BELOW              
ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES AND CURRENT WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS AT                
WARNING CRITERIA NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO. UPGRADED ALL AREAS TO WARNING              
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PUSH                  
VALUES COLDER THAN 30 BELOW IN SOME AREAS AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING               
MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS. WINDS RELAX SOME TONIGHT BUT LOWS BELOW                 
ZERO EXPECTED SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN WARNING AREA. IT HAS              
BEEN AWHILE SINCE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THESE KIND OF WIND CHILLS.                
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS LEFT INTACT. AGAIN TO KEEP HEADLINES                   
SIMPLE...WIND ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL ARE COMBINED INTO THE WARNING             
AND MENTIONED IN BODY. WIND CHILLS ACTUALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT            
MORE MODERATE IN THIS AREA DUE TO WARMER LAKE PLUME AND CLOUDS.                 
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS COULD BE GREATER NEAR THE LAKE.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS XPCD WITHIN POST FNTL ARCTIC WEDGE TDA AND                 
TONIGHT. STG GRADIENT FLW WILL CONT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES OVR             
CNTRL LWR MI AND INCOMING ARCTIC RIDGE W/GUSTS EASILY TO 35KTS IF               
NOT MORE ESP LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN IF WE CAN MANAGE SOME                    
INSOLATION. OTHERWISE FLW MODEL FCST FLW TRAJECTORIES KEEP BRUNT OF             
LK EFFECT SHSN BOTTLED UP ACRS LWR MI W/SCT SHSN XPCD FURTHER S AS              
COLD POOL ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                     
..BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                   
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-017-             
     018-020-022>027-032>034.                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR              
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.                                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-           
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-016-024-             
     025.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005.                                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...LASHLEY                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
653 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS XPCD WITHIN POST FNTL ARCTIC WEDGE TDA AND                 
TONIGHT. STG GRADIENT FLW WILL CONT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES OVR             
CNTRL LWR MI AND INCOMING ARCTIC RIDGE W/GUSTS EASILY TO 35KTS IF               
NOT MORE ESP LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN IF WE CAN MANAGE SOME                    
INSOLATION. OTHERWISE FLW MODEL FCST FLW TRAJECTORIES KEEP BRUNT OF             
LK EFFECT SHSN BOTTLED UP ACRS LWR MI W/SCT SHSN XPCD FURTHER S AS              
COLD POOL ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                     
...BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                  
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-          
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
620 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                                        
ARCTIC FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER ALONG               
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN                
THE SUSTAINED RANGE OF 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS AS HIGH               
AS 36KTS DURING THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD CLEAR...BUT              
AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...A BKN CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS CLOUD              
DECK WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT LAF WHERE IT                   
SHOULD BE AROUND 2500 FEET AND THUS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL              
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z AND THEN SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TO SCATTERED               
CLOUDS BY 12Z. AS FOR WINDS...THE GUSTINESS WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z               
AND THEN SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY                
12Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.             
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST. EXTREMELY              
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO INDIANA. AT INDY            
HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT 130 AM. RUC HAS 48 MPH WINDS AT 2,500              
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE               
ADVISORY LEVELS CENTRAL AND N AND CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH. THE                
WINDS WILL DROP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE WAY TO WARM            
WITH THE TEMPS. THE NAM WHICH IS THE COLDEST AT HUF AT 09Z HAS 20               
THEY WILL BE 16 OR MAYBE LOWER. THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -25                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS WAY BACK TODAY. THEY MAY             
TRY TO REBOUND SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COLD AIR SC MOVING IN               
THIS WILL SLOW THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OF               
THE YEAR. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO ADVSRY LEVELS.              
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH              
ENOUGH WITH THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO TO KEEP THE ADVSRY GOING                  
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WEDGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST              
OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WILL                
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.                
MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR SOME CLRG ON MON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE THINS AND            
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY ALONG WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE.              
NICE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT SHOULD BRING              
SOME LGT SN IN TUES PM AND CHRISTMAS EVE PERHAPS MIXED WITH RN S PER            
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS.                                         
MODELS SUGGESTING MORE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED THAN EITHER HPC OR                
THIS MRNGS FCST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE                
TRENDING TOWARD A PROLONGED PD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING            
CD FNT. SO...OVERRUNNING SECENARIO PSBL WITH RN/SN MIX SUGGESTED BY             
THICKNESSES. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE USUALLY MORE ACCURATE             
ECMWF AND HAVE PRECIP IN ON CHRISTMAS NGT                                       
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JOHNSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
711 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL              
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD CAPE COD LATER TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHWEST                
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND                 
BRING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY              
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...                  
MODERATING TEMPATURES TO ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS BUT WITH BETTER THAN            
NORMAL CHC FOR CLOUDS AND PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
08Z SFC ANALY FEATURES FRACTURED LOPRES FM WRN PA SWD TO WRN VA--               
CNTRS NR PIT AND GEV. A HIPRES RDG EXTEND SWD FM NEW ENGLND DWN I-95            
CRRDR TO DC. PLENTY OF LLVL COLD AIR IN PLACE...W/ FRZG LN JUST ABT             
TO EZF-CGE.                                                                     
AT 11Z...LOWS HV SPLIT FURTHER. THE NRN LOW HAS RETROGRADED BACK TWD            
GRTLKS...CLSR TO H5 CYCLONE. SRN LOW IN WRN NC. BUT...PRIND CSTL                
RDVLPMNT TAKING PLACE OFF ACY. RGNL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS MOST OF THE            
MSTR NOW E OF BLURDG. SWATH OF FAIRLY INTENSE REFLECTIVITIES                    
OMH-ESN. RECVD REPORT OF SOME WET SNW IN SRN CHARLES CNTY A CPL HRS             
AGO. SEEMS AS THO COLD AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN.                                  
GDNC HAS BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT IN CAPTURING EXTENT OF THE SUBFRZG               
AMS. LWX-WRF-ARW4N SEEMS TO BE DOING RELATIVELY WELL. OF THE                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE MDLS...NAM12 PREFERRED. IT/S BEEN MAINLY FZDZ ACRS               
CWFA THUS FAR...THO 88D SUGGESTS A FEW POCKETS OF PL OUT THERE.                 
SPOTTER CALLS/EMAILS INDICATE ACCRETION HAS BEGUN. PLS KEEP THOSE               
CALLS COMING!                                                                   
THE SRN LOW WL TRANSLATE ACRS SSIDE VA ELY THIS MRNG. H5 SUPPORT                
LINGERS BACK ACRS GRTLKS. JETSTREAM ACRS CWFA...BUT 160KT JETMAX                
BACK ACRS OHVLY. QPF WL CONT TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE TIL SFC AND UPR              
LVL FEATURES PHASE AND TAKE ON A NEG TILT. STORM WL BE PAST CWFA BY             
THE TIME THAT HPPNS.                                                            
WE/VE JUST ABT REACHED OUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. DYNAMICS                      
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD PCPN THRU ABT 15Z. AS JUST MNTND...SFC              
LOW WL BE OFF DELMARVA BY THEN...AND WNDS WL TURN WLY RATHER                    
SHARPLY. SIGNIFICANTLY LWR DEWPTS WL ADVECT EWD AT THAT PT...WHICH              
SHUD MARK NOT JUST END OF PCPN...BUT ALSO PRTL CLRG FOR THE AFTN HRS.           
IN TERMS OF PTPYE...GOING MAINLY W/ FZRA/FZDZ. NOT ONLY DO OBS                  
SUPPORT IT...BUT MDL SNDGS DEPICT STRONG H8 WAA...LEADING TO A                  
NOTABLE WM AIR INTRUSION WHILE SFC LYR SHALLOW. AT STORMS END...ENUF            
COLD AIR LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO MTNS FOR IT TO POTENTIALLY END AS SN.            
SINCE FRZG LN HAS SUNK FAIRLY FAR S INTO VA...AM SUSPECT ABT PCPN               
ENDING AS RA XCPT FOR EZF-NHK. BUT...ESELY SFC FLOW ATTM SUGGESTS IT            
STILL PSBL ABT DCA-BWI. WL HEDGE BETS THAT WAY...WHICH STILL IS                 
COLDER THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE GDNC. /BTW...WRF-ARW4 SUPPORTS A WARMER              
END ALL THE WAY W INTO SHEN VLY. WE SHALL SEE./                                 
--CHGS FOR THIS UPDT-- WL ALLW ADDED SEGMENT TO WSW ACRS SERN CWFA              
/SRN MD AND INVOF EZF/ TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. TEMPS STILL BRDRLN 32F.                
BUT...RAFL RATES HIER THAN ANTICIPATED...MORE IN LN TO WHAT RUC                 
SUGGESTED. ICE ACCRETION WONT TAKE PLACE W/ THAT MUCH LIQUID AND                
ONLY BDRDLN TEMPS. ELSW...WL LV ADVYS STAND AS IS. ALTHO STDY PCPN              
LIKELY WL BE ENDING PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME...PATCHY FZDZ LIKELY TO            
LINGER. PERFER TO HOLD ONTO ADVY TIL SOME SIGN OF TEMP RISE                     
BEGINS...WHICH WL BE AFTR SUNRISE. PLUS...XPCT SHIELD OF PCPN TO                
PIVOT BACK AS CSTL STORM STRENGTHENS/ATTAINS NEG TILT. SO...AREA                
THAT HAD ADVY EXTENDED TIL NOON STILL WONT BE OUT OF THE WOODS SOON.            
INSTEAD OF FZRA...IT/LL BE COLD TEMPS AND FZDZ...KEEPING ICY CONDS              
IN PLACE.                                                                       
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS TAFTN. INCRSD P-GRAD WL LEAD TO            
WINDY CONDS...BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS IT WL BE JUST THAT--               
WINDY BUT ADVYS NOT REQD. DAY CREW WL NEED TO MONITOR AND                       
INTERROGATE LATER GDNC TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS REQD.                              
ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS...UPSLOPE COMPONENT REPONSIBLE FOR SCT SHSN.                
BUT...FLOW SO STRONG AND TRAJ WLY THAT IT WONT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE              
OR PICK UP NEEDED MSTR. THUS...POPS NO HIER THAN CHC.                           
GIVEN STRONG CAA...MAXT WL BE A STRUGGLE BTWN PROCESSES. THINK THE              
DWNSLOPE AND CLRG WL ALLW A QUICK BURST BEFORE CAA REALLY KICKS IN.             
THAT PERMITS RISING TEMPS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GDNC SUGGESTS.                   
THUS...FCST MAXT WL BE UNDER GDNC VALUES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
SUNDAY NIGHT THE TRAILING H5 VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                     
CWA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF LLVL CAA AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO                  
-20C. THIS CAA WILL PRODUCE A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TONIGHT UP               
TO H75...WHERE WINDS ARE 40+KTS. SHOULD SEE A GUSTY WIND                        
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SUNSET AND 2 AM...WILL KEEP IT JUST BLO WIND               
ADVSRY FOR NOW. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE WIND CHILL ADVSRY THRESHOLDS               
IN THE HIER ELEVATIONS ABV 1500 FT LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT               
THAT IS LATE 2ND/ERLY 3RD PD SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL                   
ADVSRY ATTM BUT HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURENCE.                                   
MONDAY WILL BE NW FLO DAY WITH SCT-BKN SC BUT GUSTY WIND WILL                   
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.  UPSLOPE MACHINE WILL BE ON IN WESTERN 5              
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT A BIT STARVED OF MOISTURE SO ONLY INCH OR            
SO XPCTD ATTM.                                                                  
MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH FROM THE TN VALLEY BUILDS IN AND STARTS               
PUMPING WARM AIR INTO REGION.  TUE NIGHT MIGHT SEE OVERUNNING PCPN              
START AS A BRIEF PD OF FZRA BUT WITH STRONG WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS             
WILL QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
MODERATING TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH            
LONG RANGE MEX GDNCE GIVING HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK U50S/L60S. BUT               
NOT WITHOUT ALOT OF CLOUDS AND POTL FOR WARM FRONTAL SHRA XMAS                  
NIGHT AND FRI.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SHIELD OF PCPN E OF BLURDG. TEMPS ACRS TERMINALS BLO FRZG...SO PTYPE            
FZRA/FZDZ. STDY PCPN WL END SHORTLY...BUT PATCHY FZDZ WL LINGER THRU            
MRNG...AS TEMPS WON/T RISE ABV 32F ALL THAT QUICKLY.                            
ELY WNDS WL BECOME WLY BY MIDDAY...WHICH WL SCOUR OUT ANY FLGT                  
RESTRICTIONS. AS P-GRAD INCREASES...XPCT WNDS TO PICK UP TO 15-30 KT            
DURING AFTN...CONTG INTO EVNG.                                                  
SUN NGT AND MON..STRONG NW WINDS WL GENERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE              
IN LEE OF THE APLCHNS. OTRW...VFR XPCTD THRU AT LEAST TUE. NXT                  
THREAT OF FLGT RESTRICTIONS COMES TUE NGT-WED.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOPRES TRACKS ACRS WATERS THIS MRNG. PGARD INCR IN ITS WAKE. GLW                
ALREADY IN PLACE TAFTN. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 35 KT GUSTS W/IN             
REACH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DCZ001.                   
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     MDZ501-502.                                                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ003>007-               
     009>011-013-014.                                                           
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>041-050-051.                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ028-031-               
     042-052>054.                                                               
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     WVZ050-054-055-501>504.                                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ051>053.               
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR           
     ANZ530>537.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LEE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HTS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LEE                                                                
LONG TERM...LEE                                                                 
AVIATION...HTS                                                                  
MARINE...HTS/LEE                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY WINTER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...               
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH KGRR AND THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH MICHIGAN               
STATE POLICE...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO             
A BLIZZARD WARNING. CONDITIONS BEING MET ALONG MAJOR ROADS WITH                 
HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES BEING CLOSED DUE TO ZERO VISIBILITIES AND              
HIGH WINDS. KBEH OBSERVATION CERTAINLY CLOSE OR MEETING CRITERIA AT             
TIMES SO HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH KGRR.                                 
ARCTIC COLD AIR NOW IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS                  
AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR STRATOCU FINALLY DEVELOPING                
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN BERRIEN BUT AS EXPECTED HAVE BEEN ON LIGHT                 
SIDE. STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING WITH SUN HAS LED TO               
WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND              
RECENT REPORT OF I94 ACCIDENT AND ROAD CLOSURE IN NEAR WHITEOUT                 
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES.                                            
BULK OF COLD AIR TO PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS            
PROGGED TO BE NEAR A STAGGERING NEGATIVE 28C. RATHER UNUSUAL SETUP              
AS THIS COLD CORE PASSES OVER AREA THIS EVENING AND TEMPS BEGIN TO              
WARM WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF MAIN UPPER              
LOW TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. NAM 2M SURFACE TEMPS               
AND MANY OF THE WRF RUNS NOT HANDLING SURFACE TEMPS WELL AT ALL AND             
TOO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. RUC DOING BEST JOB AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED              
WITH BLEND OF CURRENT COLD GRIDS THROUGH END OF RUC CYCLE. PROBLEM              
IS POTENTIAL WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LAKE PLUME                  
INCREASING. WILL TREND TOWARD STEADYING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT                  
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT PLUME AND RISING TEMPERATURES WITHIN MODIFIED            
PLUME OFF OF LAKE.                                                              
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT...POOR DGZ REGION EARLY THIS EVENING              
BEGINS TO CLIMB AND BECOME LOCATED WITHIN MOIST LAYER AND MAXIMUM               
OMEGA OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS 925-700MB LAYER BEGINS TO WARM.            
DELTA T VALUES REMAIN IN LOWER 20S AND WINDS BEGIN TO DROP TO A MORE            
FAVORABLE SPEED WITH LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE. KSBN BUFKIT SOUNDING               
STILL SHOWS INVERSION HANGING ON BUT KAZO AND KGRR PROFILES MUCH                
MORE FAVORABLE. NAM WRF 4KM SHOWING LAKE EFFECT IMPROVING THROUGH               
THE NIGHT WITH INDICATIONS OF A COUPLE DOMINATE BANDS...THE SECOND              
BEING OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA INTO BRANCH AND HILLSDALE                
COUNTIES. THIS SECOND BAND WILL BE INTERESTING AND IF IT INDEED                 
DEVELOPS WILL NEED TO INCREASE AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS FROM CURRENT              
RANGE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON BETTER CHANCE AREA OF IMPACT             
IN CURRENT WARNING AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS HIGHER THAN                    
PREFERRED TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCH SNOW             
RANGE BUT STILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF IDEAL CONDITIONS             
CAN SET UP AND PERSIST...MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF MICHIGAN COUNTIES.            
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK MONDAY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH FLOW TURNING             
MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY MORNING AND                    
TRANSITION TO CHANCE POPS BY AFTERNOON BEFORE LAKE EFFECT ENDS.                 
MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND COULD HELP SET STAGE               
FOR NEXT PCPN EVENT COMING IN FOR TUESDAY. AS WE SAW THIS PAST                  
THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF ICE STORM...SKIES CLEARED                  
BRIEFLY IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH NEARBY.                
TEMPS DROPPED WELL BELOW GUIDANCE EARLY BEFORE RECOVERING DURING                
EVENT. SIMILAR SET UP APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES                    
CLEARING AND WINDS LIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WARM             
AIR ADVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE OVER                
LOCKED SNOW PACK THAT IS FRESH IN AREAS AND FROZEN SOLID IN OTHERS.             
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT NEAR ZERO SOUTHWEST AND BELOW ZERO                     
NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWING RISING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM TUESDAY            
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS A POTENT SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE                    
REGION.  MODEL CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THIS TIME FRAME AND LOW                
BEYOND IT AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES.          
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY LEADS TO SFC LOW EJECTING IN SW FLOW AS            
WESTERN CONUS TROF FLATTENS AND EJECTS UPR LEVEL ENERGY ALONG MID               
LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK OVER INDIANA WHICH               
BRINGS INEVITABLE PTYPE CONCERNS.  ESSENTIALLY A ONE TWO PUNCH WITH             
WAA PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SFC LOW ITSELF EARLY                   
WEDNESDAY.  INITIAL TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO BREAK OUT             
IN WAA REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING LOW.  GOMEX IS WIDE OPEN BY MIDDAY             
TUESDAY AND THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SETTING THE              
STAGE FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ESP ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF FORECAST               
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE SFC FEATURE               
ADVANCES BRINGING IN THE SECOND ACT AS WARM AIR RAPIDLY ADVANCES                
AHEAD OF LOW WITH 60+ KT FLOW AT H85 STREAMING WARM MOIST AIR                   
THROUGH LOW LEVELS INTO THE CWA. AS USUAL MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT               
WITH AMOUNT OF WARMING AND EFFECTS ON THERMAL PROFILE/PTYPE.  HAVE              
BASICALLY FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A BIT OF              
FURTHER SOUTH..COLDER SREF AND AWAY FROM THE WARM BIASED ECMWF.  ABV            
FZ H85 TEMPS MIGRATE INTO NORTH CWA WHILE SFC TEMPS REMAIN                      
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE FZ MARK.  SREF PLUMES INDICATE TRANSITION            
TO NON-TRIVIAL FZRA AMOUNTS SOUTHERN HALF CWA WITH CHANGEOVER TO ALL            
RAIN POSSIBLE EXTREME SOUTH.   GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG             
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE KEPT MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IN THIS AREA FROM ONSET            
THROUGH RETURN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEHIND SFC LOW LATE ON WED.               
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINLY IN PTYPE AND SUSPECT QPF AMOUNTS AFTER COLLAB             
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WATCH AND WILL LET NIGHT            
SHIFT REASSESS OFF NEXT MODEL CYCLE FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE.                      
NEVERTHELESS...TRAVELERS SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE               
AND SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.                                                    
A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE MODERATE COLD AIR BEFORE             
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER IN SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION               
FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.  TRENDS AT THIS TIME AMONG GFS/ECMWF ARE             
TOWARDS A COLD RAIN EVENT BUT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO BANK ON ANY               
PARTICULAR OUTCOME.  TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT BUT OVERALL              
CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN NEXT SYSTEM SAT/SUN REMAINS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
VERY DRY/COLD AIRMASS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ARCTIC                  
FRONT HAS LED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR               
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH              
DEVELOPING CU FIELD MAY ALLOW FOR BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS. WILL                  
REMAIN OPTIMISTIC WITH SCT020 FOR NOW AND AMEND IF NEEDED. STRONG               
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES                
HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST NEAR 35 KTS. EXPECT THESE STRONG                      
WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING                 
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID MS                   
VALLEY. MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SHSN                   
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS              
PIVOTS THROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER VORTEX. FLOW WITHIN THE                
CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SHIFT MORE WNW WHICH WILL ALLOW SHSN                   
ACTIVITY AND MVFR SC DECK TO IMPACT FWA/SBN. THERE IS THE                       
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT SBN LATE THIS                  
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH                                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-017-             
     018-020-022>027-032>034.                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR              
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.                                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.             
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ079.                    
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-           
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-016-024-             
     025.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005.                                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL                                                           
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
239 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL               
ICING EVENT FOR TUE.                                                            
AT 19Z SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE LOW               
PRESSURE WAS JUST INSIDE SERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE WAS            
CREATING SFC WINDS GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA /FA/. TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO             
MID TEENS.                                                                      
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH MOST DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE            
COLD AIR. FOR THE BIGGER PICTURE WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF                    
SOLUTIONS...USING THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED AND A            
BLEND OF THE SREF AND GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPERATURE                   
DETAILS WILL NOT RELY ON ANY SPECIFIC MODEL.                                    
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS                
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE E. RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS               
HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. USING IT WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES            
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN FA. NOT QUITE SURE THAT IT WILL GET              
THAT COLD WITH CLOUDS EARLY AND WITH CORE OF COLD AIR MOVING OFF                
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DOES COME TRUE. WILL            
COMPROMISE AND GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR NRN FA              
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS IS BELOW ALL                
MOS. STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH THE COLD                
TEMPS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS STILL WARRANTED. WILL BE FLIRTING WITH             
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS EXTREME N...BUT OVERALL ADVISORY             
SHOULD HOLD IT. MEANWHILE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL END AT 700 PM AND              
THIS LOOKS GOOD OVERALL...SO WILL LET IT RIDE.                                  
ON MONDAY EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH               
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN HOW POORLY MOS IS DOING WITH                     
TEMPS...WENT COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS.                                         
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH AND THEN ALLOWING THEM TO                
RISE SOME LATE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIP IN THE NWRN FA                
BEFORE 12Z BUT LOWER ATMS IS QUITE DRY. ATTM FEEL THAT ANY PRECIP               
WOULD EVAPORATE. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST.                                   
ON TUE STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE              
FA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH WORKED WELL WITH             
LAST EVENT...INDICATE PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW ACROSS THE N AND              
AS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON ENOUGH                
WARM AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT FOR PRECIP TO BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS               
SRN HALF OF FA AND SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NRN FA. COULD BE A FEW                 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NRN FA WHERE COLDEST TEMPS WILL              
LINGER LONGEST. WITH COLD AIR HANGING ON AT THE SFC...THERE MAY BE              
SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL FA TUE AFTN...BUT ATTM FEEL                
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. SRN FA WILL WARM              
TO OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING FOR ONLY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.                
TUE NIGHT FORCING INCREASES WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING IN ALONG WITH              
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THUS WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF FA WILL            
WARM TO AT LEAST JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE               
JUST A COLD RAIN. NRN FA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN             
EARLY ON UNTIL TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.                                    
RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SAID FRONT              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY AND SHUT OFF THE BULK OF THE            
PRECIP BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES LEFTOVERS TO SNOW.              
COULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTN.                     
THANKS TO IWX AND LMK FOR COORDINATION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                                        
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD W-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND               
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.  WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY            
INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LEVEL INCREASES. MIE             
ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST UP TO 39 KNOTS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS                   
ESPECIALLY NAM SHOWS BROKEN CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.                   
GFS/RUC ALSO SHOW THIS...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NAM AND GFS IS              
QUICKER TO CLEAR US OUT LATER TONIGHT.  WILL GO WITH LATTER SCENARIO            
AS CURRENTLY NOT MUCH CLOUDS UPSTREAM.  THEY MAY TEMPORARILY                    
INCRAESE...THIS SHOULD REVERSE TONIGH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.             
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
AVIATION...JH                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1224 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
VERY DRY/COLD AIRMASS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ARCTIC                  
FRONT HAS LED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR               
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH              
DEVELOPING CU FIELD MAY ALLOW FOR BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS. WILL                  
REMAIN OPTIMISTIC WITH SCT020 FOR NOW AND AMEND IF NEEDED. STRONG               
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES                
HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST NEAR 35 KTS. EXPECT THESE STRONG                      
WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING                 
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID MS                   
VALLEY. MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SHSN                   
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS              
PIVOTS THROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER VORTEX. FLOW WITHIN THE                
CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SHIFT MORE WNW WHICH WILL ALLOW SHSN                   
ACTIVITY AND MVFR SC DECK TO IMPACT FWA/SBN. THERE IS THE                       
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT SBN LATE THIS                  
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIG/VIS FCST                
WITH A TEMPO IFR MENTION THIS EVENING AT SBN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                        
..DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND INCREASING          
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
UPDATE...                                                                       
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AND ALL PRODUCTS              
SHOULD BE UPDATED AND OUT. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED               
WITH ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS CLEARED SKIES ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT                
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS PERSIST. ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP INCREASE                  
MIXING TO SOME EXTENT IN LOWER LEVELS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN                   
INCREASED WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE                  
AGAIN LATER TODAY. SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND PLOT SHOWING 50 TO 60               
KNOTS AT 12Z UPSTREAM TO EASTERN IA AND WESTERN WI. BUFKIT                      
SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 45 KNOTS FROM INVERSION               
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE ICING SITUATION AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES                    
ALREADY OCCURRING...DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY MOST                  
AREAS. HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A LIGHT SNOW                  
OCCURRED AND SNOW COVER ALREADY EXISTS...WENT WITH A WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED IMPACT OF BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL                 
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PRODUCT                   
COMBINES THE WIND THREAT WITH THE BLOWING SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY OF                
HEADLINES.                                                                      
NEXT FOCUS WAS ON WIND CHILL CRITERIA. AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING               
LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAD NO CLUE ON SEVERITY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS             
AND ONLY COLLABORATION ISSUES KEPT US FROM GOING COLDER. NOW THAT IT            
IS HERE AND TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...UPGRADES ARE NEEDED FROM            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO WARNINGS. SEVERAL SITES ALREADY AT OR BELOW              
ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES AND CURRENT WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS AT                
WARNING CRITERIA NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO. UPGRADED ALL AREAS TO WARNING              
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PUSH                  
VALUES COLDER THAN 30 BELOW IN SOME AREAS AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING               
MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS. WINDS RELAX SOME TONIGHT BUT LOWS BELOW                 
ZERO EXPECTED SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN WARNING AREA. IT HAS              
BEEN AWHILE SINCE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THESE KIND OF WIND CHILLS.                
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS LEFT INTACT. AGAIN TO KEEP HEADLINES                   
SIMPLE...WIND ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL ARE COMBINED INTO THE WARNING             
AND MENTIONED IN BODY. WIND CHILLS ACTUALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT            
MORE MODERATE IN THIS AREA DUE TO WARMER LAKE PLUME AND CLOUDS.                 
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS COULD BE GREATER NEAR THE LAKE.                             
SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                       
.BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                    
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-017-             
     018-020-022>027-032>034.                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR              
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.                                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-           
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-016-024-             
     025.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005.                                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
UPDATE...LASHLEY                                                                
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL                                                           
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1212 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                                        
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD W-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND               
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.  WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY            
INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LEVEL INCREASES. MIE             
ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST UP TO 39 KNOTS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS                   
ESPECIALLY NAM SHOWS BROKEN CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.                   
GFS/RUC ALSO SHOW THIS...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NAM AND GFS IS              
QUICKER TO CLEAR US OUT LATER TONIGHT.  WILL GO WITH LATTER SCENARIO            
AS CURRENTLY NOT MUCH CLOUDS UPSTREAM.  THEY MAY TEMPORARILY                    
INCRAESE...THIS SHOULD REVERSE TONIGH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.             
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST. EXTREMELY              
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO INDIANA. AT INDY            
HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT 130 AM. RUC HAS 48 MPH WINDS AT 2,500              
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE               
ADVISORY LEVELS CENTRAL AND N AND CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH. THE                
WINDS WILL DROP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE WAY TO WARM            
WITH THE TEMPS. THE NAM WHICH IS THE COLDEST AT HUF AT 09Z HAS 20               
THEY WILL BE 16 OR MAYBE LOWER. THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -25                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS WAY BACK TODAY. THEY MAY             
TRY TO REBOUND SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COLD AIR SC MOVING IN               
THIS WILL SLOW THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OF               
THE YEAR. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO ADVSRY LEVELS.              
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH              
ENOUGH WITH THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO TO KEEP THE ADVSRY GOING                  
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WEDGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST              
OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WILL                
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.                
MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR SOME CLRG ON MON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE THINS AND            
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY ALONG WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE.              
NICE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT SHOULD BRING              
SOME LGT SN IN TUES PM AND CHRISTMAS EVE PERHAPS MIXED WITH RN S PER            
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS.                                         
MODELS SUGGESTING MORE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED THAN EITHER HPC OR                
THIS MRNGS FCST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE                
TRENDING TOWARD A PROLONGED PD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING            
CD FNT. SO...OVERRUNNING SECENARIO PSBL WITH RN/SN MIX SUGGESTED BY             
THICKNESSES. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE USUALLY MORE ACCURATE             
ECMWF AND HAVE PRECIP IN ON CHRISTMAS NGT                                       
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...HAINES                                                                 
AVIATION...JH                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
330 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT STILL SHOWING UP ON                  
SLATER PROFILER AT THIS TIME...AND ALTHOUGH LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
THE MIXED LAYER ONLY TO BE ABOUT 2 KFT...WINDS HAVE BEEN PLENTY                 
STRONG AND GUSTY SINCE LATE MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW            
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY                 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG WINDS. DESPITE ASOS OBS MAINLY JUST ABOVE            
1/4SM VSBY...REPORTS FROM COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA                 
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT              
00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS             
WAS AND STILL IS COMMON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AFTER SUNSET AS                
INVERSION LOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST              
OVER WEST-CENTRAL IOWA BY 12Z.                                                  
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR                
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO             
AND SETTLING BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH              
THE WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW NORTH OF             
HIGHWAY 92 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT WARMER SOUTH             
OF THERE. HAVE EXPANDED WIND CHILL WARNING SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 92 TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE WIND DIMINISHING UNDER 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT                
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES TO GO AROUND 4 AM.                   
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE STORM SYSTEMS ON              
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ROLLER COASTER              
RIDE FOR TEMPS.  RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER MONDAY...VERY COLD BUT               
NOT MUCH WIND AND NO PRECIP.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF              
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ON BOARD OVER THE SW U.S. THE FLOW OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES STRONGLY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY                    
TUESDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL            
AND SOUTHERN IOWA.  MONDAY NIGHT MINS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z              
AND WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MOVE THE TUESDAY             
SYSTEM THROUGH AS AN OPEN LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE             
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA.  BOTH MODELS ALSO                 
PRINT OUT IMPRESSIVE QPF TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO IS WAY MORE                   
AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.                
HOWEVER...WITH THIS KIND OF FLOW WE CAN EASILY GET HEAVIER SNOW AND             
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM.  I HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND               
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERED THE LIGHT               
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.  SOME HINT OF A TROWAL WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE            
SOUTHEAST SO SNOW AMOUNTS HIGHER THERE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS THOUGH I MADE SOME               
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                
AS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH            
THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW.  THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS HUGE             
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTING              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS SCENARIO PUTS CENTRAL IOWA IN ABOUT              
36 HOURS OF SNOW.  THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER AND MUCH                   
SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DISPLACES THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO             
THE EAST AND GIVES US ALMOST NOTHING FOR PRECIP.  WE WILL ALSO NEED             
TO CONSIDER MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER AIR WILL BE IN              
PLACE AND ICE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.  WITH THE KIND OF                     
DISCREPANCIES OUT THERE I PUT LOW POPS IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY.  BETTER DEFINITION WILL COME AS MODELS CONVERGE SOME.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...21/18Z                                                              
WINDS HAVE INCREASED RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS MAX SUBSIDENCE ALOFT MOVES            
OVER CENTRAL IOWA. A SOLID 40 TO 50 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TOP             
OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS THROUGH                 
21-22Z. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED EITHER FROM A THIN LAYER OF                
STRATUS OR FROM BLSN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS                   
EVENING. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED TO 1SM OR LESS AT NRN TAF                 
SITES FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY AT SOUTHERN SITES.              
THE WIND DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OVERNIGHT               
AND AFT 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFT 03-05Z.                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR                                   
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-                 
GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-              
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.                                     
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR                
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-                     
CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-                  
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-                  
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                 
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLACK HAWK-                  
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-                 
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-                
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-                 
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOYER                                                     
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
134 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RECEIVED PIREP OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KBTR. BASED ON THE                    
REPORT AND AN EXAMINATION OF RUC13 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THERE              
IS 10-20 DEGREES AND 15-20 KNOTS OF SHEAR FROM ABOUT 300 FEET TO                
100 FEET AGL ON APPROACH TO RUNWAY 4L. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR                     
INCLUSION IN THE TAF...BUT WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED LLWS THROUGH                 
23Z AT KBTR ONLY. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS HAVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER                    
PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS...AND RADAR WIND ESIMATES FROM VAD WIND                
PROFILE AT KMSY AND KLIX SUGGESTS LOWER WINDS IN THE 100-2000 FEET              
AGL LAYER...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS AT KMCB...KMSY...AND KGPT. 22              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS TO ELIMINATE MORNING WORDING AND TO                  
REFINE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WAS               
CONTEMPLATING ISSUING A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE                 
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE 26 DEGREES              
OR LOWER FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO.                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 13-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25                 
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 22-23Z...AND AT KMSY               
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SE AT 30 MPH THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE                
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL                
SETTLE NEAR SOUTH TEXAS AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM AS                     
BAROCLINCITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST GULF. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY                
MOVE NE ALONG ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WED.                           
PROBLEM AREAS IN THE FCAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND THIS TRANSITION                  
FROM A COLD DRY AIR MASS TO A QUICKLY WARMING MOISTENING ONE. AS                
MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD WITH THE SFC LOW LATE MONDAY...SOME LIGHT              
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE MOST WESTERN PERIPHERAL PORTION                
OF THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 8K` AND SHOULD BECOME DEEP                 
ENOUGH BY 2AM TUE MORNING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT THAT                    
LEVEL. MEANTIME THE SFC TEMP WILL BE IN THE MID 30S OVER EXTREME                
SOUTHERN MISS. THIS IS NOT THE ISSUE...BUT THE DP TEMP IS. DP                   
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE TEENS AS RAIN STARTS FALLING THROUGH               
THE MID LEVELS AT 45-50 DEGREES F. AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE DRY               
AIR NEAR THE SFC VIRGA WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING AND                   
WARMING OF THESE LOWER LEVELS.                                                  
SINCE THE LIGHT RAIN FALLS THROUGH AIR AROUND 50 DEGREES BEFORE                 
FALLING INTO THE COLDER AIR IT WILL CAUSE A VERTICAL WARM AND                   
MOISTURE ADVECTION PROCESS. THIS WILL CAUSE WET BULB COOLING                    
THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MAY EVEN CAUSE THE TEMP TO FALL               
TO FREEZING AT THE TOP OF THE BL. THIS PROCESS IS SO QUICK TO                   
MODIFY THE DRY COOL AIR THAT A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF AN ICE PELLET               
MIXING WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS                 
WILL BE BETWEEN 3AM AND 5AM TUESDAY MORNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN               
MISS AND SOME AREAS ALONG THE LA BORDER. HAZARDOUS DRIVING                      
CONDITIONS OR ANY OTHER PROBLEMS ARE NOT GOING TO ACCOMPANY THIS                
EVENT.                                                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OUT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER LA BY                 
WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF               
THE ROCKIES. THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NW IN THE FORM OF A STRONGLY           
INVERTED TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS FOR A FEW DAYS                     
STARTING THU. NOW FOR THE WET STUFF. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE                         
DISTURBANCE WILL RUSH THROUGH THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SW FLOW.                  
SINCE THE OLD FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH                
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL HELP SHOWERS AND A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT STARTING THU NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH                  
FRI NIGHT. PLACEMENT WILL BE THE VARIABLE TO NAIL DOWN OVER THE                 
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT CURRENTLY THIS LOOKS TO BE FROM SE LA THROUGH                 
NORTHERN ALA. THEN THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TO FORCE                 
ALL THE MESS OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM              
AND POSSIBLY WET CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                              
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH KMCB AT 0737Z AND KBTR AROUND 0840Z.            
CURRENT PROGRESS IS MEASURED AT ESE 30KT AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH                
KASD AROUND 1030Z...KMSY AROUND 1135Z AND KGPT AROUND 1145Z. A 25NM             
WIDE BAND OF BROKEN -SHRA PRECEDES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VERY                
LITTLE INDICATED AFTER WINDSHIFT. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SHOW A NARROW             
BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR HIGH CEILINGS AND             
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KAEX-KTVR                
LINE. THIS IS INDICATED IN TAFS MAINLY AFTER 14Z.  24                           
MARINE...                                                                       
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AFTER 12Z FROM WEST TO                
EAST AND SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS             
BEFORE 18Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO ONSET SHORTLY AFTER              
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION            
BEFORE LEVELING OFF SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                 
WINDS AND SEAS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TODAY INTO THIS                 
EVENING. BAROCLINIC RETURN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW            
TO MAINTAIN HIGH SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY               
AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE MODERATING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT            
COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE NORTH GULF WATERS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY               
NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 24                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MCB  47  26  41  32 /  20   0  10  20                                           
BTR  55  29  45  37 /  20   0  10  20                                           
MSY  56  34  45  42 /  30   0  10  20                                           
GPT  55  31  47  38 /  30  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ066.                     
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-             
     575.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530.                    
MS...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ555-570-575.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS                   
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE BEST SNOW SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH                  
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.                       
INTERESTINGLY...UPPER MICHIGAN IS THE WARMEST AREA IN THE MIDWEST               
DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO THE U.P. FROM THE EAST. OF EVEN MORE              
INTEREST...GRB IS CURRENTLY -2C WHILE MNM AND IMT ARE IN THE TEENS              
ABOVE ZERO. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS ESSENTIALLY SET UP JUST SOUTH OF            
THE WI BORDER AND THE NLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE               
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE UP TODAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NW MN WILL                
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REGION MON MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                           
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT                
BLOWING AND SOME DRIFTING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. MAIN SHORT             
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LES TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. STRONG NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE               
FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BACK AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST.                  
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW WILL BACK RATHER QUICKLY                
THIS EVENING...OUR LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS THE RUC13 SUGGEST THAT THIS             
WIND SHIFT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER. A SLOWER BACKING OF WIND MAKES               
SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO AREAS N              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...SO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WARNING AREAS              
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE AGAIN TONIGHT. AT THIS                     
TIME...THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO               
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THE BEST BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE                    
SITUATED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MQT INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY THIS                  
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BACK.              
EVENTUALLY...THE WINDS WILL TURN TO 330 DEG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR              
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND GENERALLY OUT OF                
MARQUETTE COUNTY. WITH THE WINDS GENERALLY 360 DEG TODAY...KEWEENAW             
COUNTY RECEIVED VERY LITTLE SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO              
THE NW LATER TONIGHT...THAT STILL IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR              
KEWEENAW COUNTY...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CONVERGENCE. IN                  
FACT...KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY SEE BETTER SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE PBL                 
WINDS TURN WESTERLY.                                                            
AS FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THOSE AREAS. NORTHERN DELTA COUNTY MAY SEE THE             
MOST SNOW THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN BANDING INTO EXTREME NW DELTA              
COUNTY NEAR ROCK. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS BAND WILL END UP SHIFTING              
EAST THIS EVENING SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD BELOW WARNING                 
CRITERIA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WITH THE             
FLOW BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-BANDED SNOW INTO AREAS NEAR              
SENEY ESPECIALLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM EVEN A LITTLE MORE                     
CONCERNED FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NW MN               
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UP RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE WINDS               
ALIGN INTO NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. PERHAPS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR             
FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE IS THE NLY FETCH             
INITIALLY...THEN WHEN THE WINDS DO START BACKING...THEY DO RATHER               
QUICKLY SO ANY BANDS WILL NOT SET UP FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF                 
TIME. HOWEVER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED              
CLOSELY FOR WARNING AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY  MORNING.                     
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER INTERESTING THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY IN            
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS GENERALLY MISSED UPPER              
MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH. IT/S AMAZING THAT GRB IS -2F...WHILE MNM AND             
IMT ARE WELL INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED                
THAT SOME OF THE COLDER AIR IN MN WILL WORK INTO WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES.               
WITH WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS AROUND                 
-5F...WILL GO WITH WIND CHILL ADVYS FOR THIS AREA INTO MONDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                      
MON NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. A PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND SFC            
RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
THROUGH 06Z/TUE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INLAND.              
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO SUPPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW AS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS THROUGH THE              
REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SFC             
TROF INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MDLS QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10-0.15 WITH            
SNOW WATER RATIO AVERAGING ABOUT 20/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 1 TO 2               
G/GK AVBL MOISTURE DURING A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF BEST LIFT.                    
HOWEVER...S FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT AMOUNTS INTO THE 3-5 INCH...ADVY RANGE                
FROM ESC TO ISQ.                                                                
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH             
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT LITTLE IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
WED...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED A BIT SINCE                            
YESTERDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS                   
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z               
CYCLE BUT  THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKER LESS PHASED SHRTWV              
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF                
WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE CWA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR                       
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS ACRS THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF NRLY FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL            
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. SO...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS N                
CNTRL WILL BE MARGINAL.                                                         
THU-SUN...THE FCST REFLECTS THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF INTO THE                
WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER IN EJECTING A SHRTWV FROM THE SW                
CONUS AND SHOWS A WEAKER NRN STREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE UPPER LAKES             
FRI OR FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING A STRONG SHRTWV AND SFC LOW INTO THE            
WRN LAKE SUN. THE ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE CMC/UKMET EMPHASIZE A MORE             
A STRONGER PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN             
LAKES FRI INTO SAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH             
OR POSITION OF ANY SFC LOW OR FRONTS. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS TOWARD               
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF...PCPN MIX WOULD AFFECT MUCH OF UPPER MI AS              
850 MB TEMP CLIMBS TO NEAR 5C INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE 00Z ECMWF                
KEPT THE WARMER AIR FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD KEEP PCPN MAINLY SNOW.            
FOR NOW...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN MIX OVER THE FAR SE TIL BETTER                   
AGREEMENT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CMX VSBY REMAINS IFR. NORMALLY...NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT IFR             
LES...BUT GIVEN THE BLSN IT SEEMS REASONABLE. NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT            
NORMALLY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME               
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BEFORE BECOMING IFR AGAIN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE             
NW BY THIS EVENING. THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS                
THIS EVENING WITH MORE SNOW SO WE COULD SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS                
OVERNIGHT AT CMX BEFORE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR SAW...THE            
WORST CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIFR WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 3-6             
HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AS THE CONVERGENT BAND OVER               
MQT MOVES SOUTH TO SAW BY 1830Z. AS THE WINDS SHIFT NW THIS                     
EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MON             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH                  
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN WLY AND THEN SLY BY MON NIGHT.                
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GALES IN THE SLY FLOW TUE AFTN INTO EVENING.             
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM...BUT THE             
00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS NE GALES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GFS MUCH WEAKER.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ007-013-014-             
     084-085.                                                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                     
     MIZ002>006-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001.                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ009-010.                                                            
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MIZ010>012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162-250-251-263>267.                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ265>267.                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY                
     FOR LSZ240>249.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248>251.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
358 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND                   
TOMORROW MORNING AND CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO               
WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES                
STILL LOOK GOOD...SO HAVE LEFT THEM AS IS.                                      
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS NOT CAPTURING HOW COLD THIS                  
AIRMASS IS AND ALL BUT THE RUC 2-METER TEMPERATURES WERE VERIFYING              
TOO WARM AT 18Z....PARTICULARLY OVER PART OF NRN MO INTO IA. SO                 
WENT 2-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH               
BELOW ZERO LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE                   
ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS               
HIGH THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO               
THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF SLOWLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND               
WINDS WILL CAUSE WINDS CHILLS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT.                  
ALSO CUT BACK ON HIGHS TOMORROW AND CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR STEADY OR            
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS            
IN BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.            
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND                 
STRENGTH OF TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                 
EXPECT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS DECENT              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON NOSE OF BROAD 65KT LOW               
LEVEL JET UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
FAVOR A MIX OF FZRA/PL IN THE SRN CWA AND FZRA/PL/SN IN THE NRN                 
CWA TO START...THOUGH DO EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS                         
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 21Z UP TO I-70. PRECIPITATION              
WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS               
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT                         
ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW OVER THE AREA BASED ON EXPECTED LIGHT              
QPF ON TUESDAY. ECMWF/NAM ALSO SHOWING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                  
SETTING UP OVER NRN MO/SRN IA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO THINK THERE                 
WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW LATE TUESDAY               
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE AREA ON                
WEDNESDAY AS THROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK.               
LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF/CANADIAN WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH                    
ACROSS MO/IL ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE SLOWER GFS. TEMPERATURES               
FAVOR GOING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANGER OVER TO              
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUMPED UP GFS MOS                         
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WHICH LOOK TOO COLD FOR THE AMOUNT               
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...GMOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                        
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                             
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY                       
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES. SUSTAINED WINDS              
OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.               
ADDITIONALLY...2000-3000FT CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE                   
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BI-STATE REGION AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES SOUTH               
FROM THE SNOW FIELDS OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THINK THESE               
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.                  
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE                 
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST OF THE                
REGION.                                                                         
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-           
     SHELBY.                                                                    
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-MONROE-              
     PIKE-RALLS.                                                                
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.           
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR PIKE IL.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
934 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINTER BEGAN THIS MORNING AT 504 AM MST...AND MOTHER NATURE KNOWS               
IT. QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS ARCTIC             
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUD                
COVER WILL HAMPER ANY HEATING THIS FIRST DAY OF WINTER...AND RUC13              
GUIDANCE SHOWS LEE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF                
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. REMAINING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.             
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2008...                                
QUIET RIGHT NOW AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE VCNTY OF THE               
SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO BETWEEN KLVS AND KCQC AND SOUTHWARD TO THE                 
LOWER PECOS VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE FITFULLY A LITTLE                 
WAYS FARTHER S AND W TODAY...THEN RATHER WEAKLY AND SHALLOWLY MAY               
EASE THROUGH THE LOWER PASSES/CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN                  
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. IT SHOULD                  
BEGIN TO WASH OUT MON AS THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF AT LEAST 3                  
SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF                     
SNOW AND RAIN TO NW AND N CENTRAL NM. WITH THE CLOUD MASS ACROSS                
AT LEAST THE N HALF OF THE STATE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE               
REMNANT ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY NOT COMPLETELY GET SCOURED OUT ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL...N CENTRAL SECTIONS AND ON EASTWARD. SO LOWERED A                  
LITTLE SOME OF THE MON MAX TEMPS THESE AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND                    
ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 1...2...4 AND 8 FOR THE 18Z                 
MON TO 00Z WED PERIOD WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DUMP OF SNOW LIKELY                
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY NW AND N CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN.               
IN ZONE 1 LATE MORNING AND AFTN TEMPS MON AND POSSIBLY TUE MAY BE               
TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR A LOT OF SNOW ACCUM...ESPECIALLY ON                       
PAVEMENT...SO THIS IS THE WEAKEST LINK FOR NOW AMONG THE ZONES                  
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. ZONE 3 LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE TOO WARM                    
OVERALL...SO NOT INCLUDED IN WATCH SO FAR...THOUGH MON NIGHT INTO               
EARLY TUE IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. ZONES 5...10...11 AND 14 WILL                
BE ZONES PERHAPS TO CONSIDER LATER AS START TIME OF EVENT FOR THEM              
LIKELY NOT TIL LATER MON NIGHT OR EVEN TUE AM. AMOUNTS THERE WILL               
ALSO BE LESS THAN CURRENT WATCH ZONES AND FOR MAINLY THESE TWO                  
REASONS LEFT THEM OUT OF WATCH FOR NOW. STORM TWO WITH GOOD                     
COVERAGE BUT LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE LATER WED AND EARLY THU PERIOD             
WITH THIRD ONE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATER THU AND FRI. GET YOUR                
SHOVELS READY.                                                                  
43                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS STATEWIDE TODAY...WITH INCREASING                     
CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AS STORM SYSTEM OVER             
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES TO NORTHERN NEVADA. CIGS STEADILY                   
FALLING TO OVC050 NEAR FMN BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO THE RIO GRANDE BY               
22Z SUNDAY WITH MT TOP OBSCURATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.             
STORM SYSTEM MOVING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z EARLY MONDAY                   
MORNING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH GUSTS             
TO 40 KTS NEAR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DEVELOPING BY EARLY                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. SHY                                 
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT              
COUPLE OF DAYS AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS RAPIDLY            
TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER                  
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER              
NEW MEXICO AS DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE STATE WILL                
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING LATE                
MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL NORTH AND WEST...AND HEAVIEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY. TROUGH AXIS                
SWEEPS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES TO            
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO ESTABLISH WEST FLOW AND CONTINUING SNOW. NEXT                
TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL CYCLE INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY FOR             
CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW...AND NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE PARADE WILL ROLL            
IN LATE THURSDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND SNOW. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL              
AMPLIFY AND DIG THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW               
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD                
ACROSS THE STATE LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING            
ON SATURDAY AS AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN                        
PLAINS...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TO            
CLOUD UP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE IN THE             
FLOW...EXPECTING NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK               
WEEK AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.                            
SHY                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  38  25  41  30 /   5  10  40  50              
GALLUP..........................  39  21  42  28 /   0   5  30  60              
GRANTS..........................  39  20  45  27 /   0   5  20  40              
GLENWOOD........................  58  25  55  32 /   0   0   0  10              
CHAMA...........................  31   9  34  17 /   5  20  60  80              
LOS ALAMOS......................  32  17  40  24 /   0   5  20  50              
RED RIVER.......................  29   7  30  18 /   5  10  20  70              
TAOS............................  34  11  38  22 /   5   5  20  60              
SANTA FE........................  32  18  42  27 /   0   5  10  50              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  34  19  41  28 /   0   5  10  50              
ESPANOLA........................  35  17  44  23 /   0   5  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  26  46  33 /   0   5   5  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  21  48  29 /   0   5   5  20              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  22  45  28 /   0   5   5  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  47  30 /   0   5   5  30              
SOCORRO.........................  47  21  52  29 /   0   5   0   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  43  18  41  26 /   0   5  10  40              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  39  16  44  25 /   0   5   0  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  21  46  30 /   0   0   5   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  42  19  47  29 /   0   0   5   5              
RATON...........................  31  12  40  24 /   0   5   5  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  30  15  42  28 /   0   5   5  30              
ROY.............................  27  17  39  27 /   0   5   5  10              
CLAYTON.........................  29  13  39  28 /   0   5   5   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  32  19  47  33 /   0   5   5  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  32  19  44  34 /   0   5   5   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  18  47  30 /   0   5   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  32  18  43  33 /   0   5   5   5              
PORTALES........................  33  18  45  33 /   0   5   5   5              
ROSWELL.........................  38  21  49  34 /   0   5   5   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-002-004-008.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1229 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES               
THIS MORNING, WHILE A SECOND AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE                  
NORTHEAST COAST BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT TO                   
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL                  
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN                     
CATSKILLS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT,              
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FIRST SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING, WITH TROF ACROSS               
THE AREA EXTENDING TO SECOND SFC LOW OFF NEW JERSEY COAST...WHICH IS            
DEEPENING. STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS ERN HALF OF THE FA, WHILE               
GOOD BAND OF SNOW HANGS ON ACROSS THE EAST AS THE COASTAL LOW                   
TAKES OVER TODAY. RUC DATA SHOWS THIS PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST THRU               
ABOUT 20Z THIS AFTN BEFORE LIFTING OUT. EVEN THIS LOOKS A BIT                   
SLOW GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL TENDENCY TO BE TOO LATE BRINGING              
PRECIP IN AND OUT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THE              
CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS, AND TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST.               
WILL WAIT A BIT LONGER TO END THE ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL ZONES,                
WHERE THE PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN NOW. SO FAR, RECEIVING SOME                    
REPORTS IN THE NORTHEAST OF 5 TO NEARLY 7 INCHES FROM ONEIDA TO                 
OTSEGO COUNTIES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
TONIGHT...AS SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING SFC                
PRES DROPS TO 975 MB RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS WITH CONSIDERABLE                
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH                 
TMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 10                
BELOW ZERO.                                                                     
INITIALLY FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ACROSS FA BUT AFTER                
09Z LAKE EFFECT WILL DROP INTO ONEIDA COUNTY WITH SEVERAL INCHES                
OF SNOW LIKELY BY SUNRISE.                                                      
MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER MONDAY MORNING WITH                   
UNSTABLE LAYER SHOWING 300 DEGREE VECTOR. THROUGH MIDDAY UNSTABLE               
LAYER VERY DEEP WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY. DURING THE AFTERNOON                  
INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW, 4               
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS ONONDAGA/MADISON AND                  
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE                        
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
OTHERWISE, A FRIGID DAY WITH MAXES ONLY 15-20 DEGREES AND NORTHWEST             
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW                   
SHOWERS MOST PLACES WITH MINOR ACCUM ACROSS CORTLAND/CHENANGO AND               
OTSEGO COUNTIES NEAR LAKE BAND.                                                 
MONDAY NIGHT...FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AS RIDGING BEGINS AT LOW AND                 
UPPER LEVELS. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING THEN LIFT               
NORTH TO JUST NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PROBABLY NORTH               
OF THERE BY DAYLIGHT. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH                
ADVISORY ACCUM POSSIBLE.                                                        
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN VERY COLD BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING.               
TUESDAY...WITH SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, DAY WILL               
START PARTLY SUNNY WITH INC CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC LOW                
PRES IN THE MID WEST WILL BEING THE CHC FOR SNOW DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON FROM I81 WEST.                                                        
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREA OF LOW PRES WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPR GREAT                
LAKES SOUTH TO MID WEST BY 12Z WED. DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC                
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS FA WITH HIGH CHC POPS ENTIRE CWA. AFTER                 
06Z, T85 ABOVE FREEZING ENTIRE FA BUT FAR NORTH PER NAM/GFS.                    
INCLUDED PRECIP MIXING WITH SLEET ALL AREA BUT FAR NRN CWA.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
LONG RANGE CONTS TO SHOW A DVLPG SE RDG AND A RETURN TO MILDER AIR              
FOR THE FCST AREA. TREND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO WAS TO KEEP                
THE RDG FLATTER FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO WHILE WE WILL SEE MUCH                  
MILDER AIR...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS MILD AS EARLIER RUNS. SO...WILL               
KEEP THE IDEA OF A TEMP RETURN TO SEASONABLE COLD ON XMAS...AND A               
SLOW REBOUND OF TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE PD.                                   
HPC GUID SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE PTRN AND TREND WELL SO I HAVE USED               
THAT GUID FOR THE XTNDD GRIDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
STEADY SNOW HAS NOW PULLED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AND OUR TAF SITES               
ARE RETURNING TO VFR. XPCT VFR OR MVFR CONDS TO CONT THIS AFTN                  
WITH JUST SOME OCNL LGT SNOW SHWRS...AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY                
DUE TO BLWG SNOW. OVRNGT...WINDS WILL INCRS AND BLWG SNOW WILL                  
CONT TO CAUSE LWRD VSBY...AS WILL SCT SNOW SHWRS. ON MON...MORE                 
NWLY FLOW WILL BRING THE HEAVIER LES INTO THE AREA...ESP AT RME                 
AND SYR. FURTHER RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN ALL NY TAFS WITH THE INCRSD               
SNOW SHWRS AND BLWG SNOW.                                                       
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WLY...AND GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS MORE                
THAN 30 KTS. MORE OF THE SAME ON MON...XCPT THAT THE WINDS WILL                 
BECOME MORE NWLY AS THE LOW PULLS OUT.                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AT SYR/RME...WITH MOSTLY VFR                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.                                                         
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION          
EVENT.                                                                          
THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.                                             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     PAZ040-048-072.                                                            
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     NYZ018-036-044-045-056-062.                                                
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-             
     037-046-057.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JML/RRM                                                              
NEAR TERM...JML/RRM                                                             
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE               
WIND CHILL WARNING GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS STILL              
CLOSE TO OR JUST MEETING CRITERIA. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AS                   
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA. NEW                   
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES FACING THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING DEALS WITH               
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS & SNOWFALL THIS MORNING...AND SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.                                                 
CURRENTLY MSAS IS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH                
CWA ATTM...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AS SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE              
APPROACHES THE AREA. CURRENTLY KABR IS GUSTING TO 30KTS...WITH                  
KPIR GUSTING TO 44KTS. WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY WELL BELOW ZERO...WIND              
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA HAVING NO TROUBLE BEING MET. AS WRAP-AROUND              
WAA/TROWEL DROPS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE AN              
UPTICK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY 18Z WAA                  
FINALLY BEGINS TO WANE AS THETA-E FORCING BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL.                 
THE DECISION IS THEN WILL THERE BE ENOUGH LIGHT SNOW TO COUPLE                  
WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO JUSTIFY A HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING                     
SNOW...OR WILL THE WIND CHILL WARNING TAKE CENTER STAGE?                        
ATTM...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL WARNING DUE TO HIGHER                      
PERSONAL DANGER...BUT ADD A MENTION OF BLSN AND RESTRICTED VSBYS                
TO WSW STATEMENT. ALSO...WITH LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT MAIN                      
PRESSURE RISE AXIS WILL REACH THE ERN CWA BY 18Z THIS                           
AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND IN TIME THE WIND CHILL WARNING                 
THROUGH 22Z. LOCAL ABRWRF MODEL SHOWS THAT SFC WINDS WILL FALL                  
RATHER FAST THEREAFTER.                                                         
CWA THEN CATCHES A BRIEF BREAK...ALBEIT COLD...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                
MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MEX GUIDANCE VALUES              
WERE THE COLDEST...AND HAVE UNDERCUT THAT BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO.              
GIVEN STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE...NO CLOUDS FORECAST TO ADVECT IN               
UNTIL AFT 12Z MONDAY AND DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...SHOULD BE PRIME                
CONDITIONS TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                     
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE                 
CWA. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH                  
ROBUST WAA MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. 85H/7H THETA-E FORCING                  
BECOMES PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY...AND 85H-7H              
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAA LIFTING INTO               
THE REGION. BUFKIT SHOWS THAT PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION MAY BE A                 
TAD HIGH...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEST VALUES OF LIFT THROUGH THE                  
LAYER. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT...AND                 
ALSO GONE WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT IN                  
ANTICIPATION OF STRONG WAA. AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT HOW QUICK THE                
SW PART OF THE CWA WILL MOISTEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR                
PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS 18Z-00Z                    
MONDAY GIVEN RAPID INCREASE SEEN IN THE 85H-7H LAYER SPEC                       
HUMIDITIES DURING THAT TIME. HAVE ALSO BOLSTERED THE SNOWFALL                   
TOTAL GRID FOR THE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY GRID.                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM END OF                
SHORT TERM PERIOD HAVING MOVED EAST INTO MN WITH MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP ALSO HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...HAVE                      
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR TUESDAY                
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS                    
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT                  
LOWS ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO QUITE POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS              
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WAA PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF                 
THE WEEK. GFS STILL HANGING ONTO A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO IGNORE THIS                  
FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE POPS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY REMOVED FOR THURSDAY               
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT IT APPEARS AS IF                      
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC                
IN SAYING THE NORTHERN CWA COULD SEE 20 DEGREES WHILE THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WARM INTO THE MID 20S.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOST CLOUD COVER MOVED EAST OF THE               
AREA. ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING CLOUD LAYERS BUT EVEN THESE               
REPORTS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND                   
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BECOMES LESS OF A PROBLEM. THROUGH THE                
DAY EXPECT THE REPORTED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WINDS               
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES              
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GROUND OPERATIONS PROBLEMATIC. BY THIS                    
EVENING EXPECT A RETURN OF GOOD VFR WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND                 
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISHING TO 10 TO              
15 KTS LATE THIS EVENING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-                   
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                   
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-               
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-            
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd