AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
315 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERING SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING             
SE ACROSS SRN WYOMING ATTM. 80KT JET CORE NOSING INTO NW CO WHILE               
RUC QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOWING MODEST ASCENT OVER NERN CO              
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.  CORRESPONDING 88D SHOWING MAIN SWAWTH OF                
BANDED PRECIP FROM LONGMONT TO NEW RAYMER BUT APPEARS TO BE                     
WEAKENING WITH LACK OF SIGNIFIANT MSTR. THIS SWATH OF LIGHT TO                  
MODERATE PRECIP WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT OVER THE DENVER AREA BEFORE            
LIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE STILL                
SOME SECONDARY AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WY...SO WILL KEEP THE                    
SCATTERED POPS THIS AM. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST...MOST OF THE PRECIP             
WILL END LATER THIS AM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SERLY THIS AFTN.                                    
THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CLIPS NERN CO LATER TNT WITH             
SOME WEAK ASCENT. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF...ESP OVER THE            
FAR NERN CORNER. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR LATER TNT.                          
.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN IT BECOMES WESTERLY SUNDAY.  AN UPPER             
TROUGH STAYS TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
TIME.  A JET MAXIMUM NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON                 
SATURDAY.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE FOR THE             
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...                          
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE IS SOME LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.                 
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS LATE                
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THAT MOISTURE                   
DOESN`T GET IN HERE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.  THE ALPINE AREAS ARE                 
FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT.              
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.80 INCH OVER THE                 
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE IS A SLIGHT THETA-E AXIS            
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.                 
THERE IS ANOTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT                 
PLAINS.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER             
30S TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH ALL THE PERIODS.  FOR CAPE              
...THERE IS VERY LITTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY            
NIGHT.  BY LATE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS SOME OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND               
ADJACENT PLAINS.  THE QPF FIELDS SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE                    
RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE LAPSE RATE            
FIELDS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR MUCH OF            
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WELL INTO SUNDAY.  THE HIGH COUNTRY AND              
IMMEDIATE PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED FOR SUNDAY               
LATE IN THE DAY.  FOR POPS...WILL LEAVE 0%S GOING SATURDAY INTO                 
SUNDAY.  WILL ADJUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S POPS TO JUST 10%S IN SOME OF            
THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS ONLY.  FOR                     
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-7 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S.                 
SUNDAY`S COOL OFF A BIT...THE MOST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.  FOR              
THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER                 
TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...THEN ZONAL                
FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATER            
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY.  A DECENT SURGE OF UPSLOPE IS PROGGED INTO            
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY MORNING.  WILL MAKE FEW ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THESE LATER DAYS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL AIRPORTS WILL SEE VARYING CIGS THIS AM...AND                  
EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND              
TNT. NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE THIS AFTN.                   
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
SWE/RJK                                                                         
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
725 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST AND EXIT                
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO              
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WET                     
WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
A DEFINITIVE LINE OF RAIN/NO-RAIN WAS QUITE EVIDENT ON THE RADAR                
THIS EVENING.  MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY IS             
MAINLY DRY WHILE OUR SOUTHEAST CWA IS RECEIVING OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES.  EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN VT AND                   
RENSSELAER COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE INCREASING.  REMAINDER               
OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED...                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST. A                       
DEFORMATION BAND...THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND RUC13 ARE DOING                 
QUITE WELL DEPICTING IN THE 850MB-500MB LAYER...HAS SET UP ACROSS               
EASTERN PA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY INTO NW CT                 
AND THE BERKS THIS EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHEAST VT TONIGHT AS UPPER              
JET DEPARTS NORTHEAST CANADA. BASED ON THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND              
NHC TRACK...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.                    
HOWEVER...BASED ON UPSTREAM PROJECTIONS...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH                 
FOR THIS DEFORMATION BAND TO IMPACT SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND                      
RENSSELAER WHERE THE WATCH IS NOT IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME /IT WILL               
BE CLOSE/. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 INCHES                  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AND UPSLOPE                  
FAVORED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BERKS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM THE                
CAPITAL REGION INTO BENNINGTON VT WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH INTO THE                
DACKS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS                   
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY WHERE SOME CONVECTION DID ERUPT TODAY...BUT                  
THOUGHTS ARE WITH THE APPROACH OF HANNA THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL                    
INCREASE AND DIMINISH THOSE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.                                  
WINDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA ARE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST              
WITH NO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. SO               
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS ACROSS NW CT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY                  
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                             
IN THE WAKE OF HANNA...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE              
UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMMENCE AOA 12Z /PROBABLY EARLIER               
THAN LATER/. A BRISK DAY WITH 15-20KT GUSTS EXPECTED WITH A FRESH               
NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. BASED ON               
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WILL FOLLOW                  
SUIT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FOR THE MID HUDSON                  
VALLEY WHERE SOME LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PTSUNNY SKY.                   
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS                
SOUTH OF THE CWA. BY LATE IN THE DAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME                    
UNFOLDS UPSTREAM LATE MONDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
WENT MOSTLY WITH GMOS DATA (WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKING) FOR THIS                  
EXTENDED PACKAGE.                                                               
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...RETREATING TO OUR EAST             
MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/EUROPEAN AND HPC INDICATES A PRETTY                  
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO            
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT OUR REGION                
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT BY LATER ON THE DAY             
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS PRETTY POTENT...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY            
THE RR QUAD OF THE 90KT H250 JET. THEREFORE FOUND IT PRUDENT TO                 
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS H850 TEMPERATURES ARE               
QUICKLY FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO DROP FROM AROUND +15C EARLY                  
TUESDAY TO ONLY +5C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT!                                      
MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE AIR MASS             
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME FAST ZONAL. SPRAWLING            
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT            
SYSTEM TO APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL            
FEATURE ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS                 
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOL AIR               
MASS IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY. WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW                   
CONTINUING ALOFT...COOLER AIR MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO MIGHT BE                 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE...TRIGGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A             
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FOR NOW...JUST WENT            
20 POP EVERYWHERE FOR NEXT SATURDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE HEAVIEST RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA...IS IMPACTING THE                    
KALB/KPOU REGION. HANNA ITSELF WAS IN SOUTHERN NJ AND TRACKING                  
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE CB IDEA AT KPOU/KALB AS THERE            
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT ANY                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY ISOLATED.                                                
THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE             
TAFS SITES LATER THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ABOUT TO MOVE               
AWAY FROM KGFL WITH ONLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SCATTERED SHOWERS             
FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR             
ONCE THE WIND BECOMES N OR NW AND INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO AROUND                 
12KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT. GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE            
THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT ALL SITES TONIGHT.                          
A MUCH BETTER DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS DRY AIR ERODES THE CLOUDS AND            
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. THE ONLY MITIGATING                  
FACTOR WILL BE A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND STILL                           
APPROACHING 12KTS AT TIMES...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS.                            
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SUN NIGHT...VFR EVE...MVFR/IFR OVN DUE TO RADIATIONAL FOG.                      
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC SHRAS/TSRA.                                                
WED/THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL PRODUCE 3-6 INCHES OF                                 
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...1-3 INCHES LOCALLY...AND             
LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH TONIGHT.             
RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR THIS EVENING SOUTH AND             
EAST OF ALBANY...AT LEAST IN A FEW SPOTS.                                       
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM TOMORROW...A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL               
KICK AND RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 40-50                        
PERCENT...EXCEPT HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS (ONLY DROPPING TO              
AROUND 70 PERCENT THERE). A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT              
WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING 100 PERCENT.                                         
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE               
CATSKILLS NORTH AND EAST TO AND INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH               
TWO TO SIX INCHES TOTAL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE HEAVIEST                  
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...BUT CANNOT RULE              
OUT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT OR SOME OF THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO               
INCREASE THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.                                               
MODELING OBSERVED ALONG WITH FORECAST RAINFALL CURRENTLY SUGGESTS               
THE HOUSATONIC RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM LAKE LILLINONAH           
UPSTREAM TO THE MASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT STATE LINE. A NUMBER OF               
OTHER RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE INCLUDING THE HOOSIC                 
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND NEW YORK...THE BATTEN KILL IN SOUTHERN               
VERMONT...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE SCHOHARIE AND ESOPUS CREEKS IN              
THE CATSKILLS.                                                                  
LAKE LILLINONAH HAS BEEN LOWERED ABOUT SEVEN FEET DURING THE LAST               
COUPLE OF DAYS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE THERE               
IS SOME ROOM TO STORE SOME OF THE EXCESS FLOW...WHICH MAY ENABLE                
POWER PLANT OPERATORS TO KEEP THE HOUSATONIC BELOW FLOOD DOWNSTREAM             
FROM STEVENSON DAM.                                                             
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE STORAGE IN ASHOKAN RESERVOIR AND SOME STORAGE             
IN SCHOHARIE RESERVOIR DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.           
RUNOFF ABOVE SCHOHARIE RESERVOIR IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE WATER LEVEL           
ABOVE THE NOTCH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO OVER THE MAIN SPILLWAY.               
NO WATER IS EXPECTED TO SPILL FROM ASHOKAN RESERVOIR. HOWEVER RUNOFF            
BELOW ASHOKAN WILL CAUSE THE ESOPUS BELOW THE RESERVOIR TO RISE                 
AROUND 3 FEET.                                                                  
TROPICAL STORMS USUALLY HAVE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES            
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...EVEN WHERE NO THUNDER OCCURS. SMALL                 
STREAM...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS              
OF HEAVY RAIN. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO HIGHLY POSSIBLE. PERSONS             
LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD KEEP UP WITH LATEST FORECASTS                
FOR HANNA AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.                                              
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE                              
RADAR...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOTICED SOME OVERESTIMATE ON PRECIP                    
ALGORITHM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY MAKE                      
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RADAR PRECIP ALGORITHMS WITH COLLABORATION FROM              
ERH AND NERFC.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.                         
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ053-054-058>061-                 
     063>066.                                                                   
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.                         
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
127 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.                 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH               
JUST A FEW SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TODAY. THESE SHOULD MELT               
AWAY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL RAPIDLY              
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
PRESSURE. THIS WILL SEND GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS INTO THE AREA                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS AT IND AND LAF. A                   
LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AT BMG AND HUF WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT                
MVFR FOG TO FORM. BUT RAPIDLY APPROACHING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE                 
FOG. BY 10-14Z SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE                 
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SO WILL KEEP THE                
LOWEST VSBY IN LAF WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH WILL JUST              
MENTION SEVERAL HOURS OF VCSH. WITH SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...VERY LOW               
CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH 5-7KFT              
CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP                
AND SHORT TERM TEMPS.                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER WRN IOWA/ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  LOW                 
STRATUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WERE HANGING AROUND OVER CENTRAL             
INDIANA AT 07Z.  LARGE SCALE H5 TROF WAS OVER THE NATIONS MID                   
SECTION.                                                                        
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AS WELL AS RUC SOUNDINGS               
AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AND             
CLEARING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL ADVECTION             
AT H85 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY AND MID 50S                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SUNDAY...H5 TROF KICKS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON                   
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP IN WITHIN THE                        
AFOREMENTIONED REGION SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY.  TEMPS              
WILL REMAIN RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                  
MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.  A               
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO              
THE EVENING.  THERE IS SOME...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT...OF MOISTURE                  
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE STARTED WITH CHANCE POPS NORTHERN             
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY DURING THE DAY THEN SPREAD POPS TO THE                
ENTIRE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE WAVE IS CLOSEST.                    
TUESDAY AND WEDENSDAY...A 1024 HIGH OVER IA/MO ON TUES WILL QUICKLY             
PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.                
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON               
TUES AND WED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JOHNSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                                         
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO            
INDIANA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE FROM HANNA WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF            
INDIANA. SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AFTN INSTABILITY            
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE ARND SS.            
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL              
GIVE A BKN AC CLOUDS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP               
AND SHORT TERM TEMPS.                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER WRN IOWA/ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  LOW                 
STRATUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WERE HANGING AROUND OVER CENTRAL             
INDIANA AT 07Z.  LARGE SCALE H5 TROF WAS OVER THE NATIONS MID                   
SECTION.                                                                        
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AS WELL AS RUC SOUNDINGS               
AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AND             
CLEARING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL ADVECTION             
AT H85 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY AND MID 50S                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SUNDAY...H5 TROF KICKS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON                   
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP IN WITHIN THE                        
AFOREMENTIONED REGION SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY.  TEMPS              
WILL REMAIN RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                  
MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.  A               
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO              
THE EVENING.  THERE IS SOME...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT...OF MOISTURE                  
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE STARTED WITH CHANCE POPS NORTHERN             
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY DURING THE DAY THEN SPREAD POPS TO THE                
ENTIRE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE WAVE IS CLOSEST.                    
TUESDAY AND WEDENSDAY...A 1024 HIGH OVER IA/MO ON TUES WILL QUICKLY             
PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.                
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON               
TUES AND WED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SALLY                                                                  
AVIATION...SH                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
300 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP               
AND SHORT TERM TEMPS.                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER WRN IOWA/ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  LOW                 
STRATUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WERE HANGING AROUND OVER CENTRAL             
INDIANA AT 07Z.  LARGE SCALE H5 TROF WAS OVER THE NATIONS MID                   
SECTION.                                                                        
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AS WELL AS RUC SOUNDINGS               
AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AND             
CLEARING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL ADVECTION             
AT H85 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY AND MID 50S                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SUNDAY...H5 TROF KICKS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON                   
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP IN WITHIN THE                        
AFOREMENTIONED REGION SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY.  TEMPS              
WILL REMAIN RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                  
MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.  A               
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO              
THE EVENING.  THERE IS SOME...ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT...OF MOISTURE                  
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE STARTED WITH CHANCE POPS NORTHERN             
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY DURING THE DAY THEN SPREAD POPS TO THE                
ENTIRE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE WAVE IS CLOSEST.                    
TUESDAY AND WEDENSDAY...A 1024 HIGH OVER IA/MO ON TUES WILL QUICKLY             
PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.                
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON               
TUES AND WED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                                         
11-3.9 MICRON LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE SC FIELD ALONG A              
CORRIDOR FM BMG TO IND. IN FACT DEW PT DEPRESSION AT BMG WAS ONLY 2             
LATE THIS EVE WHEREAS OTHERSITES STILL SAW A 5 OR 6 DEGREE SPREAD.              
MODELS WERE ALSO STILL SHOWING LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE OVERNGT ESP             
S AND E OF A HUF-IND LINE. FINALLY...FOGGY PROGRAM FAVORS ST OVER               
FOG TGNT AND MOS SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING. SO...WL DELAY AND LESS THAN            
FOG IMPACT TNGT AND ONLY GO WITH MVFR. HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE SOME            
IFR AT BMG IF THE CLOUDS DONT FILL BACK IN SOON. MEANWHILE...EXPECT             
THE SC TO LOWER TO THE IFR CAT AT TIMES AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE OF            
DAYS. MODEL TIME SECS AND CU PROGS FAVOR CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR BY               
MID MRNG ESP AT LAF. CU SHOULD ALSO SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON.                 
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SALLY                                                                  
AVIATION...MK                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
709 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00 UTC AVIATION...                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS                      
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS                
WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED              
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE                
TO LOWER AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER                                
MIDNIGHT..REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 3 MILES AT TAF SITES. LOW              
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH 12              
KFT PRESENT THEREAFTER.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TWO WAVES MOVING THOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN IN            
THE WATER VAPOR AND PROFILERS. FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND              
THE OTHER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS SHOW             
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVES LATER THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. INITIAL              
CONCERNS THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY                 
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 TONIGHT. EVEN WITH CLOUDS PRESENT OVERNIGHT WILL            
APPROACH THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.               
INITIALLY WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED             
LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THEN LATER TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH             
THE LOW LEVEL JET INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS            
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS DEPICTED BY RUC/GFS AND NAM TO DEVELOP               
LATER TONIGHT AND MAINLY WILL AFFECT ONLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF              
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL                
KANSAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS BY              
THE AFTERNOON EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE DRAMATICALLY.                    
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY                   
LOWERED HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND LITTLE MIXING. 53                               
SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO MONTANA. QUESTIONS ARISE                  
REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                 
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...AND THE TIMING OF A SERIES OF WAVES ALSO                  
LIFTING THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                           
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SEEM TO BE DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN               
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...UP INTO NE BY MONDAY MORNING. MADE SEVERAL              
CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS SHIFTING THE AXIS FOR BEST PRECIP FURTHER                
NORTH. MONDAY...BEST INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP RIGHT OVER TOP OF                 
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THIS                        
INSTABILITY AXIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP                    
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL LOOKING TO BE THE PRIMARY                    
THREAT. FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND                
COOLER TEMPS ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. LOWERED LOWS MON NITE/TUES MORN              
TO THE MID 40S NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 50S EAST CENTRAL.                     
LATE TUES/EARLY WED AND THEREAFTER...WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK                      
NORTHWARD...AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT               
TROUGH. MODELS COINCIDENTLY DEPICT A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING                   
NORTHEASTWARD WED MORN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY            
WED WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. WITH GOOD                 
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRACE REGION OF UPPER JET                           
STREAK...PASSAGE OF 500MB TROUGH...AND SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING ON               
THROUGH THURSDAY LATE THURS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TAPERED BEST                
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED PRECIP ONSET A BIT                 
SOONER WITH INITIAL WAVE PASSAGE LATE TUES...AND CLEARED OUT LOCAL              
AREA A BIT MORE QUICKLY ON THE FLIP SIDE THURSDAY EVENING WITH                  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE                  
AVERAGE. SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY            
AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS...AND A WEAK RIDGE SETS UP             
ALOFT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDE LOWERING              
LOWS FRI MORN AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE                           
NIGHT...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WEAK CAA BEHIND             
THE FRONT. PRECIP MIDWEEK MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER THAN                
CURRENTLY DEPICTED...WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. OTHERWISE...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE AS             
IT CHURNS OVER THE GULF. LUNDE                                                  
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
305 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TWO WAVES MOVING THOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN IN            
THE WATER VAPOR AND PROFILERS. FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND              
THE OTHER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS SHOW             
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVES LATER THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. INITIAL              
CONCERNS THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY                 
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 TONIGHT. EVEN WITH CLOUDS PRESENT OVERNIGHT WILL            
APPROACH THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.               
INITIALLY WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED             
LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THEN LATER TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH             
THE LOW LEVEL JET INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS            
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS DEPICTED BY RUC/GFS AND NAM TO DEVELOP               
LATER TONIGHT AND MAINLY WILL AFFECT ONLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF              
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL                
KANSAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS BY              
THE AFTERNOON EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE DRAMATICALLY.                    
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY                   
LOWERED HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND LITTLE MIXING. 53                               
SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO MONTANA. QUESTIONS ARISE                  
REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                 
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...AND THE TIMING OF A SERIES OF WAVES ALSO                  
LIFTING THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                           
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SEEM TO BE DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN               
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...UP INTO NE BY MONDAY MORNING. MADE SEVERAL              
CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS SHIFTING THE AXIS FOR BEST PRECIP FURTHER                
NORTH. MONDAY...BEST INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP RIGHT OVER TOP OF                 
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THIS                        
INSTABILITY AXIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP                    
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL LOOKING TO BE THE PRIMARY                    
THREAT. FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND                
COOLER TEMPS ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. LOWERED LOWS MON NITE/TUES MORN              
TO THE MID 40S NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 50S EAST CENTRAL.                     
LATE TUES/EARLY WED AND THEREAFTER...WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK                      
NORTHWARD...AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT               
TROUGH. MODELS COINCIDENTLY DEPICT A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING                   
NORTHEASTWARD WED MORN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY            
WED WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. WITH GOOD                 
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRACE REGION OF UPPER JET                           
STREAK...PASSAGE OF 500MB TROUGH...AND SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING ON               
THROUGH THURSDAY LATE THURS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TAPERED BEST                
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED PRECIP ONSET A BIT                 
SOONER WITH INITIAL WAVE PASSAGE LATE TUES...AND CLEARED OUT LOCAL              
AREA A BIT MORE QUICKLY ON THE FLIP SIDE THURSDAY EVENING WITH                  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE                  
AVERAGE. SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY            
AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS...AND A WEAK RIDGE SETS UP             
ALOFT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDE LOWERING              
LOWS FRI MORN AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE                           
NIGHT...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WEAK CAA BEHIND             
THE FRONT. PRECIP MIDWEEK MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER THAN                
CURRENTLY DEPICTED...WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. OTHERWISE...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE AS             
IT CHURNS OVER THE GULF. LUNDE                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE                  
EVENING HOURS. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF                
THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE KTOP AND KFOE TAF SITES AROUND 21Z TO                
22Z. LIFT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL                
MOVE EAST BY 00Z. MODELS DIFFER WITH LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT                 
WITH THE NAM KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN WITH THE GFS HAVING VFR CIGS.                
OPTED TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 05Z                   
SUNDAY THEN VFR THEREAFTER. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR VSBYS IN THE                    
10-14Z PERIOD. 53                                                               
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
53/LUNDE                                                                        
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
641 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KEPT MVFR VISBY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS T/TD SPREADS ARE LOW AND                 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE ISENTROPIC SHOWERS WILL                
SPREAD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BRING PREVAILING              
MVFR SHRA INTO TAF SITES BY 14/15Z. EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH                  
THE DAY THEN END TOWARD 0Z...WITH THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 67              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEFINED BY                 
BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS                 
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT FORECAST                 
TIME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND CENTRAL KS...SEEMINGLY FORCED BY LOW LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT                    
ENHANCED BY LOW LVL JET THROUGH TX AND OK TAPPING INTO DEEP MOIST               
AXIS INDICATED OVER TX AND OK PANHANDLES ON H850 00Z ANALYSIS.                  
CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEASTERN KS AND EASTERN NE HAVE ALLOWED                    
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.                               
TODAY...GFS/NAM INDICATE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING NORTH DURING               
THE MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL              
KS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT               
AXIS SHIFTS NORTH...HOWEVER DEEPER INTO THE COLDER AIR OVER THE                 
TOPEKA CWA INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS SOUTHERN KS...SO                      
ONLY MENTIONED ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR                      
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING              
INTO WESTERN NE AT FORECAST TIME WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE                  
ASCENT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS                
IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH BROAD TROUGH AXIS. AS THE SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER REDUCING LOW TO MID LVL              
ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH MAY DISRUPT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY               
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME MODEST ASCENT WILL                    
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE COOLEST CORE                
OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS NE...SO BEST ASCENT AND                  
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH                   
MOISTURE IN PLACE DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY               
SEE RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS               
OF THE CWA. NORTH CENTRAL KS IS A TOUGHER CALL SUBSIDENCE ON THE                
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SUPPRESS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 18Z.                     
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS ATTM...BUT HAVE ONLY LOW CHC                
POPS MENTIONED HERE WITH AROUND 50 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST                 
FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS. WITH A COOLER START TO THE                   
DAY...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION HAVE HIGHS IN THE                
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.                                                
TONIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE LOOKS                
TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. TO THE EAST               
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LVL JET WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SET UP              
A BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF               
THIS WEAK BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LVL SUBSIDENCE PORTIONS OF                
EAST CENTRAL KS MAY SEE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ONCE THE LOW               
LVL JET INTENSIFIES. GFS WAS INDICATING A QPF BULLSEYE OVER                     
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS TONIGHT BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. IF                
THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKER TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL                   
KS...CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS              
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 MAY                   
REMAIN EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND ALLOW SOME OF THIS NOCTURNAL                    
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL              
WITH AT LEAST SOME MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE               
CWA.                                                                            
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN              
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE                     
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH WOULD BE FOR LOW LVL ISENTROPIC              
LIFT TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE TOPEKA CWA. AT THIS TIME              
THE TIMING OF THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO DELAY                
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO AFTER SUNSET ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS                
QUICKER THAN THE NAM IN BRINGING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SFC                
BACK OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES KEPT              
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR              
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LLJ RAMPS UP ONCE AGAIN               
AND IMPINGES ON THE STEEPER 305K ISENTROPIC SFC OVER THE CWA.                   
UPPED POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.                      
MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH                 
NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE. INCREASED POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY                
ON MONDAY WITH 00Z H250 ANALYSIS INDICATING 115 KT JET STREAK                   
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS WAVE OVER WESTERN CANADA ATTM. A COLD FRONT                
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THIS STRONG TROUGH...AND PRECIPITATION               
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT AS BROAD                
SUBSIDENCE WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE                  
FAIRLY COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO              
THE UPPER 40S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.                   
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE             
WX PATTERN OVER THE CWA...SO A DRY FORECAST AND CLEARING SKIES                  
SHOULD BE ON ORDER.                                                             
EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                                        
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FOR 18 UTC AVIATION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY MID LEVELS PER 12Z TOP SOUNDING MAKING PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT              
TO REACH THE GROUND. MAY SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY                  
DROP TO MVFR RANGE...BUT SEE LITTLE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCLUSION                 
GIVEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER         
THIS EVENING...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY              
ALLOW FOR BR DEVELOPMENT AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                  
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME IN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF                
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA                      
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF               
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR                             
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE                  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT                   
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID                         
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY              
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE                   
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK               
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS                
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING                 
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL                 
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM                   
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY                 
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY                
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS                    
BETTER FORECAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING/65                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
714 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST AND AVIATION UPDATE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS/WX...TO EXTEND EASTERN EDGE OF POPS                  
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE COVERAGE A BIT TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS                
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BESIDES SHOWERS LACKING                      
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. MAY TAKE A BIT FOR COLUMN TO                      
SATURATE CONSIDERING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MONITORING VISBYS AT TOP AND FOE ATTM. EXPECT 1/2SM VISBYS TO                   
BREAK UP BY 14Z AS SUN COMES UP. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS                  
MORNING UNTIL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH IN THE                       
AFTERNOON AND BRINGS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. HAVE VCSH              
IN TAF SITES WAITING TO SEE IF DRY AIR EVAPS SHOWERS BEFORE THEY                
HIT THE GROUND. WILL PROBABLY NEED A PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP AT                  
SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. 67                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF                
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA                      
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF               
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR                             
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE                  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT                   
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID                         
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY              
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE                   
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK               
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS                
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING                 
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL                 
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM                   
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY                 
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY                
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS                    
BETTER FORECAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM               
FRIDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
359 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF WAVES IN THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF                
IS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA                      
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF               
700 MB TROF AXIS. RUC LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR                             
TERM...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FURTHER EAST THAN THE                  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION FROM RUC. WARM ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT                   
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BUT NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH RAPID                         
ADVANCEMENT EAST OF THIS RAIN AS LAST EVENINGS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY              
DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE                   
AWHILE TO SATURATE AIRMASS. STILL...EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MESSY TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                
DEPICTED IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. WITH PERSISTENT TROF ALOFT...EACH WEAK               
WAVE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS                
TIMING THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND HARDER EVEN IS TIMING                 
THE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW POP SOLUTION FOR ALL                 
PERIODS THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HARD AS I TRY I AM                   
UNABLE TO REDUCE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THESE POPS. THUS...PRETTY                 
MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE PAST SATURDAY. WILL DEFINITELY                
NEED WATCHING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE RESOLVED AND TIMING IS                    
BETTER FORECAST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STRATUS AND MOIST                 
GROUND IN THE KFOE/KTOP...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG DEVELOPING                 
IN THESE SITES THROUGH 12Z. DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS                   
SHALLOW FOG AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME AC AND CIRRUS                     
ARRIVING TOWARDS SUNRISE SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE              
FOG. DRIER GROUND...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE                  
CLOUDS IN KMHK WAS THE REASON FOR KEEPING FOG OUT OF THE 06Z                    
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGING TRENDS.                    
WILL GO WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT KFOE/KTOP...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR                  
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z WITH INCREASING AC CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE                       
APPROACHES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE KMHK AREA...BUT                  
WITH VFR CIGS6-10KFT. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES BY 00Z...EXPECT                     
LINGERING AC SCT-BKN100 AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT                      
THROUGH 06Z/SAT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
644 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.                
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAKING LANDFALL             
ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING....BEFORE ACCELERATING            
NORTHEASTWARD TO ATLANTIC CANADA BY LATE SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE CWA. MOST OF IT              
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.                    
GFS/RUC IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ENHANCED IR IMAGERY OF              
BANDING DVLMNT ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF HANNA. DECENT FORCING WITH               
HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX VALUES DVLPS AS OUTER BAND OF HANNA TO THE                 
MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA FROM THE SSE THIS MORNING.                              
HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH LOWER 80S NEAR/ALONG            
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.                                                        
FIRST OF MANY OUTER BANDS OF SHRAS/ISOL TSRA WILL LIKELY MOVE                   
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH DRY SLOTS (PERIODS OF NO                 
RAIN) DVLPG BEHIND INITIAL BANDS LATE EVE/ERLY OVRNT. LOOK FOR AN               
AVG OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT SOME              
AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY NEARING AN INCH.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
GFS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE FLUX DIV DVLPG BTWN 03Z-14Z OVER            
SWRN 2/RDS OF THE CWA (S-N) AS INTERSECTION OF E-SE FLOW AT H92                 
CONVERGE. IN TURN THIS IS ALSO WHERE HIGHEST H70 THETA E VALUES ARE             
TO BE FCSTD. ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                 
HANNA THINK ENHANCED FORCING DVLPS AS ASSOC TRAILING FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY FROM GUSTAV TRIES TO APPROACH THE RGN FROM THE WEST. THIS              
IS FAIRLY A REASONABLE SCENARIO WHICH LATEST HPCQPF GUIDANCE IS ALSO            
IN AGREEMENT. LOOK FOR MOD/HVY RIAN AT TIMES OVRNT INTO SAT (S-N).              
DRYER AIR WILL START TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE               
SW AT MID LVLS AS SAT PROGRESSES PUSHING AREA OF HEAVIER RAINS TO               
OVER THE NNE SECTION OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING BAROCLINIC LEAF.                  
ATTM...THINK BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES ON AVG WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN                     
2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH HANNA (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE             
ENHANCED BANDING DVLPS). WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH               
THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE MORE TRICKY WITH MORE OF A CONVECTIVE AIRMASS              
OVER THE ERN THIRD...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS AREAS OF             
MOD/HVY RAINFALL. ATTM LOOKING AT AN AVG OF 1 TO 3 INCHES TO OCCUR              
(LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMTS POSSIBLE).                                           
AS WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH HIGH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES...LOOK FOR             
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT TO              
DVLP LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT OVER SE THIRD OF THE CWA WITH OUTER RAIN             
BANDS. SEE LATEST SPC SWODY1 FOR MORE INFO.                                     
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA             
AS HANNA NEARS/PASSES THROUGH THE RGN. SUST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH             
POTENTIAL GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...WILL ISSUE             
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING (FOUND IN HLS) FOR ONE COUNTY BUFFER              
ZONE WEST OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WATCH/WRNGS HEADLINES TO                
ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. FURTHER INLAND SUST WINDS WILL                
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AT                
TIMES.                                                                          
PRECIP EVENTUALLY ENDS AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RGN SAT                    
NIGHT/SUN AM (SW-NE).                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY IN                
THE WAKE OF HANNA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE MRNG.                     
MODELS/HPC HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD FRONT NOW MAINLY                  
LOOKING TO BE A TUE AFTN/EVENG EVENT. HAVE CONTD 30% CHC FOR                    
SHWRS/TSTMS TUE/TUE NGT. THEN GOING DRY ON WED EXCEPT FOR                       
LINGERING 20% POPS CLOSER TO STALLING BNDRY ACRS SOUTHERN ZONES.                
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG MON/TUE (MID/UPR                  
80S)...THEN A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WED/THU WITH               
MORE CLOUD CVR EXPECTED....AND POSSIBLE APPROACH OF NEXT TROPICAL               
SYSTEM (IKE) FROM THE SE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CNDTNS XCPT FOR LCL IFR AT SBY & ECG THRU 12Z FOR PTCHY FOG.                
OTW...TAF FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY HANNA OVER NXT 24-36 HRS.                   
HIGH/MID LVL CLD DECK OVRSPRDS RGN THIS AFTRN. MVFR CNDTNS XPCTD                
AFTR 21Z OR SO AS SHWRS SPREAD N FROM NC CSTL AREAS. ONLY PLACE I               
MENTIONED CB IS AT ECG LATE THIS AFTRN. CNDTNS RPDLY DETERIORATE                
THIS EVE AS IFR CNDTNS OVRSPRD RGN DUE TO RAIN / FOG. WNDS FIRST                
INCRS ALONG THE SERN CSTL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KTS XPCTD B4              
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WNDS THEN SPREAD ACROSS RGN BY LATE TONITE.                     
HANNA PROGGED TO MOVE RPDLY ACRS THE AREA SAT WITH GUSTY WNDS & OCNL            
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WINDS SAT NEAR THE COAST MAY REACH 25-35 WITH               
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND OVER RIC IN THE 15-30 KNOT RANGE.                         
CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM S TO N LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MAINLY VFR               
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOOMPANY THE               
NEXT COLD FRONT AROUND TUE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TRPLCL HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS HANNA MOVES NE AND AFFECTS RGN              
FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT EVE. WND GRIDS CONT TO FOLLOW TPC TRACK.             
WINDS STEADILY INCREASE TO TRPLCL STORM FORCE AFTR 06Z SAT STARTING             
OVER THE CURRITUCK SND/SRN COASTAL WATERS...THEN OVER THE SRN CHES              
BAY AND PRHAPS EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS BY                
LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN SAT. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS ON                
SAT...UP TO 11-15 FT OVER THE CSTL WATERS AND 4-5 FT OVER THE                   
BAY...WITH MOUTH OF THE BAY WAVES APPRCHG 8 FT.                                 
STORM SURGE BTWN 2 TO 4 FEET ABV NRML TIDE LEVELS XPCTD...ALONG WITH            
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES XPCTD SAT ALONG THE BEACHES OF              
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST AROUND              
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR ERLY SAT AFTRN. HANNA RPDLY             
PULLS NE OF MARINE AREA LATER SAT NGT. IPROVING CNDTNS EXPCTD SUN.              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR MDZ021>023.                                                            
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MDZ021>025.                                       
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.                         
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR NCZ012.                                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR             
     NCZ012>014.                                                                
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ077-078-084>086-089>091-093>100.             
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR VAZ048-049-060>090-092.                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR             
     VAZ072>074-076-081>083-088-092.                                            
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VAZ075.                                           
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ630>633-652-654-656-658-670.             
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ650.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...LKB                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
358 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS                          
MORNING...PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HANNA                
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAKING LANDFALL ON                
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING....BEFORE ACCELERATING                     
NORTHEASTWARD TO ATLANTIC CANADA BY LATE SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CHANGES TO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AFTER CONFERENCE CALL THIS                     
MORNING WITH NHC.                                                               
GFS/RUC IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ENHANCED IR IMAGERY OF              
BANDING DVLMNT ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF HANNA. DECENT FORCING WITH               
HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX VALUES DVLPS AS OUTER BAND OF HANNA TO THE                 
MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA FROM THE SSE THIS MORNING.                              
HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH LOWER 80S NEAR/ALONG            
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.                                                        
FIRST OUTER BAND OF SHRAS/ISOL TSRA WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA            
THIS AFTN/EVE WITH A DRY SLOT DVLPG BEHIND INITIAL BAND LATE EVE/ERLY           
OVRNT. LOOK FOR AN AVG OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH ITS              
PASSAGE...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY NEARING              
AN INCH.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
GFS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE FLUX DIV DVLPG BTWN 03Z-14Z OVER            
SWRN 2/RDS OF THE CWA (S-N) AS INTERSECTION OF E-SE FLOW AT H92                 
CONVERGE. IN TURN THIS IS ALSO WHERE HIGHEST H70 THETA E VALUES ARE             
TO BE FCSTD. ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                 
HANNA THINK ENHANCED FORCING DVLPS AS ASSOC TRAILING FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY FROM GUSTAV TRIES TO APPROACH THE RGN FROM THE WEST. THIS              
IS FAIRLY A REASONABLE SCENARIO WHICH LATEST HPCQPF GUIDANCE IS ALSO            
IN AGREEMENT. DRYER AIR STARTS TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM              
FROM THE SW AT MID LVLS AS SAT PROGRESSES PUSHING AREA OF HEAVIER               
RAINS TO OVER THE NNE SECTION OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING BAROCLINIC               
LEAF. ATTM...THINK BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES ON AVG WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN               
2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH HANNA (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE             
ENHANCED BANDING DVLPS). WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH               
THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE MORE TRICKY WITH MORE OF A CONVECTIVE AIRMASS              
OVER THE ERN THIRD...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS AREAS OF             
MOD/HVY RAINFALL. ATTM LOOKING AT AN AVG OF 1 TO 3 INCHES TO OCCUR              
(LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMTS POSSIBLE).                                           
AS WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH HIGH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES...LOOK FOR             
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT TO              
DVLP LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT OVER SE THIRD OF THE CWA WITH OUTER RAIN             
BANDS. SEE LATEST SPC SWODY1 FOR MORE INFO.                                     
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA             
AS HANNA NEARS/PASSES THROUGH THE RGN. SUST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH             
POTENTIAL GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...WILL ISSUE             
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING (FOUND IN HLS) FOR ONE COUNTY BUFFER              
ZONE WEST OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WATCH/WRNGS HEADLINES TO                
ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. FURTHER INLAND SUST WINDS WILL                
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AT                
TIMES.                                                                          
PRECIP EVENTUALLY ENDS AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RGN SAT                    
NIGHT/SUN AM (SW-NE).                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY IN                
THE WAKE OF HANNA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE MRNG.                     
MODELS/HPC HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD FRONT NOW MAINLY                  
LOOKING TO BE A TUE AFTN/EVENG EVENT. HAVE CONTD 30% CHC FOR                    
SHWRS/TSTMS TUE/TUE NGT. THEN GOING DRY ON WED EXCEPT FOR                       
LINGERING 20% POPS CLOSER TO STALLING BNDRY ACRS SOUTHERN ZONES.                
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG MON/TUE (MID/UPR                  
80S)...THEN A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WED/THU WITH               
MORE CLOUD CVR EXPECTED....AND POSSIBLE APPROACH OF NEXT TROPICAL               
SYSTEM (IKE) FROM THE SE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CNDTNS XCPT FOR LCL IFR AT SBY & ECG THRU 12Z FOR PTCHY FOG.                
OTW...TAF FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY HANNA OVER NXT 24-36 HRS.                   
HIGH/MID LVL CLD DECK OVRSPRDS RGN THIS AFTRN. MVFR CNDTNS XPCTD                
AFTR 21Z OR SO AS SHWRS SPREAD N FROM NC CSTL AREAS. ONLY PLACE I               
MENTIONED CB IS AT ECG LATE THIS AFTRN. CNDTNS RPDLY DETERIORATE                
THIS EVE AS IFR CNDTNS OVRSPRD RGN DUE TO RAIN / FOG. WNDS FIRST                
INCRS ALONG THE SERN CSTL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KTS XPCTD B4              
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WNDS THEN SPREAD ACROSS RGN BY LATE TONITE.                     
HANNA PROGGED TO MOVE RPDLY ACRS THE AREA SAT WITH GUSTY WNDS & OCNL            
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WINDS SAT NEAR THE COAST MAY REACH 25-35 WITH               
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND OVER RIC IN THE 15-30 KNOT RANGE.                         
CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM S TO N LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MAINLY VFR               
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOOMPANY THE               
NEXT COLD FRONT AROUND TUE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TRPLCL HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS HANNA MOVES NE AND AFFECTS RGN              
FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT EVE. WND GRIDS CONT TO FOLLOW TPC TRACK.             
WINDS STEADILY INCREASE TO TRPLCL STORM FORCE AFTR 06Z SAT STARTING             
OVER THE CURRITUCK SND/SRN COASTAL WATERS...THEN OVER THE SRN CHES              
BAY AND PRHAPS EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS BY                
LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN SAT. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS ON                
SAT...UP TO 11-15 FT OVER THE CSTL WATERS AND 4-5 FT OVER THE                   
BAY...WITH MOUTH OF THE BAY WAVES APPRCHG 8 FT.                                 
STORM SURGE BTWN 2 TO 4 FEET ABV NRML TIDE LEVELS XPCTD...ALONG WITH            
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES XPCTD SAT ALONG THE BEACHES OF              
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST AROUND              
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR ERLY SAT AFTRN. HANNA RPDLY             
PULLS NE OF MARINE AREA LATER SAT NGT. IPROVING CNDTNS EXPCTD SUN.              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR MDZ021>023.                                                            
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MDZ021>025.                                       
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR NCZ012.                                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR             
     NCZ012>014.                                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.                         
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING               
     FOR VAZ048-049-060>090-092.                                                
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VAZ075-077-078-084>086-089>091-                   
     093>100.                                                                   
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR             
     VAZ072>074-076-081>083-088-092.                                            
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656.                   
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...LKB                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008)                                         
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE                    
NORTHEAST AND CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. THIS                  
FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND               
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.                    
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN                
STALL FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.             
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM AND INTENSIFY ALONG THIS FRONT                  
MONDAY NIGHT... BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN TO                    
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1150 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008)                                      
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)                                                  
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF A HIGHER                
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE            
SRN CWFA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MID            
LEVEL FGEN WITHIN A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. THIS RAIN APPEARS              
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY                   
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA MONDAY               
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED FROM LOWER             
MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND WILL SHARPEN              
AS H5 TROUGH DIGS UPSTREAM. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE            
TIMING... TRACK... AND STRENGTH OF SFC WAVE MOVING NE ALONG THE                 
FRONT. ATTM PREFER THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT.               
TEMPS/CLOUDS/POPS ARE VERY TRICKY ON MONDAY SINCE SHARPENING FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE RIGHT OVER THE CWFA. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOL            
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE NRN CWFA AND MUCH WARMER AND DRY                  
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 30 PCT IN THE              
SE CWFA TO 50 PCT IN THE NW MONDAY... INCREASING TO LIKELY /60 PCT/             
OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING                
RAIN ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY THE QPF AMOUNTS WE SAW FROM GUSTAV.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008)                                        
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS            
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE ERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN               
WE/LL HAVE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND              
ANOTHER LOW HEADS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT             
WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. WE/LL KEEP TSRA/SHRA IN THE             
GRIDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN THE               
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW FOLLOWS. INSTABILITY DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT                
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME OF THE JUICE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL              
BE MADE UP BY THE STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  DRY             
WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(400 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008)                                           
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH             
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY TURN VERY ROUGH ON LAKE                    
MICHIGAN DEPENDING ON INTENSITY... TIMING... AND TRACK OF                       
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALL FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008)                                        
THE AREA OF RAIN OVER EASTERN IOWA HAS MOVED EAST NORTHEAST INTO                
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 11 PM. THIS AREA WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO             
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT WILL BRINGING              
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN TO AREAS... NEAR AND SOUTH OF                   
INTERSTATE 96... BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS                  
THANKS TO COUPLED JET DYNAMICS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN             
IN THE 8 AM TIME FRAME OF SUNDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE ENHANCED                  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
NOW...ADD THE LAKE EFFECT TO THIS. THE 6C 850 MB MOVES INTO THE LAKE            
SHORE AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE 18C SURFACE             
LAKE TEMP (COASTWATCH) WILL CREATE SOME LAKE INSTABILITY TOO. THUS              
AS BOTH THE RUC AND NAM SHOW...THERE WILL BE A LAKE ENHANCED                    
PRECIPITATION AREA WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT THANK TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.            
AS I WRITE THIS... SHOWERS WERE ALREADY FORMING WEST OF SAUGATUCK. I            
HAVE TO BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF THE DYNAMICS AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. I COULD EVEN SEE             
IFR FOR A TIME BTW 12Z AND 15Z AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES (ONLY MKG IS            
TO FAR NORTHWEST FOR THIS).                                                     
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR (2 PM). HOWEVER             
THE CU RULE SHOWS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR BROKEN CU COVERAGE              
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDS SHOW THIS TOO. THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL             
ON MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME ARE NEAR 15000             
FT. THAT BY THE WAY REACHES THE -10C ISOTHERM. ISOLATED SHOWERS                 
WOULD NOT BE OUT THE QUESTION THEN EITHER. THE LAKE EFFECT                      
ENHANCEMENT COULD BEST THAT.  BOTTOM LINE HERE IT THE MOSTLY LIKELY             
TIME FOR SOLID VFR IS FROM NOW TILL 09Z AT MOST TAF SITES. MORE                 
SHOWERS AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS               
THE NEXT COLD PUSH MOVES IN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008)                                        
QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS... WITH            
MAX AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO                  
LANSING. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON HYDRO. THE SYSTEM ON             
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD                
AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE              
INCH POSSIBLE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     MEADE                                                             
SHORT TERM:   MEADE                                                             
LONG TERM:    93                                                                
MARINE:       MEADE                                                             
AVIATION:     WDM                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT)...                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE UPR               
TROF CENTERED OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS OFF THE W AND E COASTS.             
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA LAST NGT/THIS MRNG IS HEADING NEWD INTO             
ONTARIO THIS AFTN...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS HAS                  
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DVLPMNT OF A MID LVL INVRN ARND H75 AS SHOWN ON              
12Z MPX RAOB/15Z TAMDAR SDNG FM RHI THAT IS LIKELY SPREADING NEWD               
INTO THE FA BECAUSE THE 12Z RAOB FM GRB SHOWED INVRN BASE AT H65.               
DESPITE PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR                 
SDNGS...THE STRENGTHENING/LOWERING INVRN AS HINTED AS WELL ON RUC               
FCST SDNGS HAS CAUSED MOST OF THE SHRA TO DSPT BY 16Z. THE ONLY                 
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE ERN ZNS...WHERE BACKEDGE OF LINGERING DEEPER            
MSTR HAS NOT QUITE PASSED...AND OVER THE W CLOSER TO A WEAKER MID               
LVL INVRN AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THE W IS ALSO CLOSER TO A               
WEAK SFC LO PRESENT JUST W OF CMX AT 15Z. ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING                 
INVRN HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH THE SHRA...THE TRAPPED LLVL MSTR BLO               
THE INVRN BASE HAS RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD. WHERE SKIES               
HAD CLRD EARLIER OVER THE SCNTRL...DAYTIME HTG RESULTED IN THE                  
DVLPMNT OF MORE LO CLD. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LO CLD EXTENDS W INTO             
CNTRL MN AND S INTO SCNTRL WI. THE 12Z BIS/ABR RAOBS DEPICT A DRIER             
SFC-H8 LYR WHERE THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF LO CLD NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG             
AXIS. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MRNG IN THAT AREA. ANOTHER              
FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE MEAN TROF IN THE PLAINS IS               
DIGGING THRU SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS AFTN. ANOTHER SHRTWV ROUNDING              
THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF IS NOTED OVER IA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT/SUN) (ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT)...                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE CLD AND SHRA TRENDS/FOG CHCS            
TNGT... THEN TIMING/COVG OF PCPN ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW              
DROPPING THRU SASKATCHEWAN.                                                     
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV NOW OVER IA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE JUST S OF THE              
FA...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT EVEN THOUGH SOME              
HI CLD ON ITS NRN FRINGES MAY IMPACT MAINLY THE SCNTRL AND E THRU               
MUCH OF THE NGT. OTRW...LARGER SCALE H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO              
DOMINATE THRU THE NGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG NOW TO THE W EXPECTED              
TO NOSE INTO THE FA OVERNGT. DESPITE THESE EXPECTATIONS...NAM                   
PERSISTS IN SHOWING LGT QPF OVER THE NCTRL AND E. LOCAL HI RES                  
MODELS ALSO DEPICT SOME ISOLD SHRA IMPACTING MAINLY THE NCNTRL AND              
ERN ZNS DESPITE THE SUSPECTED LARGER SCALE TRENDS. THE GFS SHOWS LTL            
IN THE WAY OF QPF. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY IN FCSTS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN            
SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER BEFORE LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG CAUSES            
GOING SHRA TO WEAKEN IN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING. THE SHRA              
WL PERSIST LONGEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO DEPARTING LO CENTER MOVING              
INTO ERN LK SUP/MORE RESILIENT CYC FLOW. SINCE FOG WAS OBSVD                    
UPSTREAM LAST NGT CLOSE TO THIS RDG AXIS...WL ADD MENTION OF SOME               
FOG LATE TNGT UNDER THE UPR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCNTRL CLOSER            
TO HI CENTER PASSING TO THE S. SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/WNW FLOW OVER              
THE N WL MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT SUSTAIN LO CLD. LOWEST MIN                
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE LO LVL WINDS ARE               
MOST LIKELY TO DECOUPLE.                                                        
ON SUN...SHRTWV OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN IS PROGGED TO REACH NRN             
MN BY 00Z MON. SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REACH             
THE CNTRL ZNS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE DAY TO START ON THE DRY               
SIDE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING A DRY ATMOSPHERE...BUT APRCH OF SHRTWV/            
FNT IN THE AFTN WL INCREASE PCPN CHCS. NEGATIVES FOR PCPN INCLUDE               
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FNT IN THE                  
DAKOTAS ARE IN THE LOW 40S...AND RELATIVELY WEAK H85 CNVGC ALG THE              
BNDRY AS WELL AS ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER SCALE JET FORCING/UPR DVGC.              
DESPITE THE NEGATIVES...INTRODUCED CHC TS GIVEN OBSVD LTG STRIKES               
UPSTREAM AHD OF THE FNT...GFS/NAM FCST H7-5 LAPSE RATES APRCHG                  
7C/KM...AND FVRBL PEAK HTG TIME OF DAY FOR ARRIVAL OF BNDRY.                    
MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR SFC T/TD OF 70/40 YIELDS A MODEST SBCAPE             
UP TO 500 J/KG...BUT STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES/UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW             
MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS UNDER THE HEAVIER SHRA.                               
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THRU SAT) (ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT)...                       
SUN NIGHT...SHORTWAVE BRINGING PCPN TO THE FCST AREA SUN WILL MOVE E            
OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MON. WILL THUS DIMINISH POPS FROM W TO E                
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO END WITH BOUNDARY              
LAYER COOLING. ON MON...IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE               
E...THEY WILL END IN THE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS MON AND THEN LIFTING NE INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM/GFS (ESPECIALLY GFS) ARE STRONGER AND                
MORE NRLY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAEKS. 12Z             
UKMET/ECWMF OFFER A MORE SUPPRESSED WEAKER SFC LOW WHILE THE GLOBAL             
CANADIAN SHOWS VERY LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AT ALL. AT THIS POINT...              
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS                    
STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET. WEAK GLOBAL CANADIAN SOLUTION ALSO             
SUGGESTS LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS/NAM AT THIS TIME. IMPRESSIVE                 
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 300MB JET WILL YIELD A                    
SIGNIFICANT STRIPE OF PCPN LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES N OF SFC LOW            
TRACK. HOWEVER...IN FAVORING THE FLATTER ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION...BULK            
OF THAT RAIN WILL PASS BY TO THE SE OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.                 
SHOULD A MORE NRLY SOLUTION PAN OUT...A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD                  
RAINFALL WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. GRIDS WILL BE STRUCTURED             
TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS SE (STILL JUST CHC CATEGORY) WITH DRY WEATHER              
NW MON AFTN/NIGHT.                                                              
WED THRU SAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS) ARE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NAMERICA DURING THIS TIME            
FRAME. ALL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE REGIME ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE             
S OF THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERING ITSELF OVER NCNTRL CANADA. THERE IS             
ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF OF INTEREST THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE NRN              
CONUS...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE IN                 
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE TROF. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON THE                 
OVERALL PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...CONFIDENCE DURING THE                 
WED-SAT PERIOD IS ABOVE NORMAL. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES TUE NIGHT WILL SLIP QUICKLY TO THE E. WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE             
FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF TUE NIGHT...WILL GO AT OR              
BLO THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E.               
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. ON WED...SFC LOW                
PRES TROF WILL EMERGE OVER THE WRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE                    
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF. WAA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WED...THOUGH IT            
APPEARS THE BEST WAA WILL STILL REMAIN W AND SW OF THE FCST AREA                
THRU THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT                     
ANTICYCLONIC...ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED IN THE ECWMF. FOR THESE                   
REASONS...CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS FROM ALL BUT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
FOR NOW...WILL TRIM POPS BACK FROM THE INHERITED FCST TO INCLUDE                
JUST THE FAR WRN FCST AREA WED AFTN. SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN PROGRESS E             
ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEARING              
100M AND A NICE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...THIS SYSTEM OFFERS THE                
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED PCPN THOUGH QUICK MOVEMENT WILL            
WORK TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH            
CHC RANGE AS MODEL TIMING CHANGES OF 12HRS OR MORE ARE CERTAINLY                
POSSIBLE 4-6 DAYS OUT INTO MODEL RUNS. EVENTUALLY...HIGH POPS SHOULD            
BE REQUIRED ONCE TIMING IS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES               
MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING IN BACKSIDE CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL DRY                
FCST OUT FOR FRI/SAT IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS             
THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID              
SEPT.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TEMPORARILY AT CMX AS WESTERLY              
UPSLOPE WINDS TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT. EXPECTE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT              
SAW AS LIGHT SHOWERS EXIT.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THE              
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT SAW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO DRIFT INTO                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK 30.0 INCH                 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO               
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS                   
PERIOD. A 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY SUNDAY            
MORNING WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD            
FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL              
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW WILL            
FORM OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY EVENING AND DEEPEN TO AS IT MOVES            
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE              
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...                 
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY                  
EVENING...WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
439 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE UPR               
TROF CENTERED OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS OFF THE W AND E COASTS.             
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA LAST NGT/THIS MRNG IS HEADING NEWD INTO             
ONTARIO THIS AFTN...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS HAS                  
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DVLPMNT OF A MID LVL INVRN ARND H75 AS SHOWN ON              
12Z MPX RAOB/15Z TAMDAR SDNG FM RHI THAT IS LIKELY SPREADING NEWD               
INTO THE FA BECAUSE THE 12Z RAOB FM GRB SHOWED INVRN BASE AT H65.               
DESPITE PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR                 
SDNGS...THE STRENGTHENING/LOWERING INVRN AS HINTED AS WELL ON RUC               
FCST SDNGS HAS CAUSED MOST OF THE SHRA TO DSPT BY 16Z. THE ONLY                 
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE ERN ZNS...WHERE BACKEDGE OF LINGERING DEEPER            
MSTR HAS NOT QUITE PASSED...AND OVER THE W CLOSER TO A WEAKER MID               
LVL INVRN AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THE W IS ALSO CLOSER TO A               
WEAK SFC LO PRESENT JUST W OF CMX AT 15Z. ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING                 
INVRN HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH THE SHRA...THE TRAPPED LLVL MSTR BLO               
THE INVRN BASE HAS RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD. WHERE SKIES               
HAD CLRD EARLIER OVER THE SCNTRL...DAYTIME HTG RESULTED IN THE                  
DVLPMNT OF MORE LO CLD. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LO CLD EXTENDS W INTO             
CNTRL MN AND S INTO SCNTRL WI. THE 12Z BIS/ABR RAOBS DEPICT A DRIER             
SFC-H8 LYR WHERE THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF LO CLD NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG             
AXIS. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MRNG IN THAT AREA. ANOTHER              
FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE MEAN TROF IN THE PLAINS IS               
DIGGING THRU SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS AFTN. ANOTHER SHRTWV ROUNDING              
THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF IS NOTED OVER IA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT/SUN)...                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE CLD AND SHRA TRENDS/FOG CHCS            
TNGT... THEN TIMING/COVG OF PCPN ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW              
DROPPING THRU SASKATCHEWAN.                                                     
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV NOW OVER IA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE JUST S OF THE              
FA...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT EVEN THOUGH SOME              
HI CLD ON ITS NRN FRINGES MAY IMPACT MAINLY THE SCNTRL AND E THRU               
MUCH OF THE NGT. OTRW...LARGER SCALE H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO              
DOMINATE THRU THE NGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG NOW TO THE W EXPECTED              
TO NOSE INTO THE FA OVERNGT. DESPITE THESE EXPECTATIONS...NAM                   
PERSISTS IN SHOWING LGT QPF OVER THE NCTRL AND E. LOCAL HI RES                  
MODELS ALSO DEPICT SOME ISOLD SHRA IMPACTING MAINLY THE NCNTRL AND              
ERN ZNS DESPITE THE SUSPECTED LARGER SCALE TRENDS. THE GFS SHOWS LTL            
IN THE WAY OF QPF. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY IN FCSTS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN            
SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER BEFORE LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG CAUSES            
GOING SHRA TO WEAKEN IN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING. THE SHRA              
WL PERSIST LONGEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO DEPARTING LO CENTER MOVING              
INTO ERN LK SUP/MORE RESILIENT CYC FLOW. SINCE FOG WAS OBSVD                    
UPSTREAM LAST NGT CLOSE TO THIS RDG AXIS...WL ADD MENTION OF SOME               
FOG LATE TNGT UNDER THE UPR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCNTRL CLOSER            
TO HI CENTER PASSING TO THE S. SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/WNW FLOW OVER              
THE N WL MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT SUSTAIN LO CLD. LOWEST MIN                
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE LO LVL WINDS ARE               
MOST LIKELY TO DECOUPLE.                                                        
ON SUN...SHRTWV OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN IS PROGGED TO REACH NRN             
MN BY 00Z MON. SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REACH             
THE CNTRL ZNS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE DAY TO START ON THE DRY               
SIDE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING A DRY ATMOSPHERE...BUT APRCH OF SHRTWV/            
FNT IN THE AFTN WL INCREASE PCPN CHCS. NEGATIVES FOR PCPN INCLUDE               
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FNT IN THE                  
DAKOTAS ARE IN THE LOW 40S...AND RELATIVELY WEAK H85 CNVGC ALG THE              
BNDRY AS WELL AS ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER SCALE JET FORCING/UPR DVGC.              
DESPITE THE NEGATIVES...INTRODUCED CHC TS GIVEN OBSVD LTG STRIKES               
UPSTREAM AHD OF THE FNT...GFS/NAM FCST H7-5 LAPSE RATES APRCHG                  
7C/KM...AND FVRBL PEAK HTG TIME OF DAY FOR ARRIVAL OF BNDRY.                    
MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR SFC T/TD OF 70/40 YIELDS A MODEST SBCAPE             
UP TO 500 J/KG...BUT STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES/UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW             
MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS UNDER THE HEAVIER SHRA.                               
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THRU SAT)...                                              
SUN NIGHT...SHORTWAVE BRINGING PCPN TO THE FCST AREA SUN WILL MOVE E            
OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MON. WILL THUS DIMINISH POPS FROM W TO E                
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO END WITH BOUNDARY              
LAYER COOLING. ON MON...IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE               
E...THEY WILL END IN THE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS MON AND THEN LIFTING NE INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM/GFS (ESPECIALLY GFS) ARE STRONGER AND                
MORE NRLY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAEKS. 12Z             
UKMET/ECWMF OFFER A MORE SUPPRESSED WEAKER SFC LOW WHILE THE GLOBAL             
CANADIAN SHOWS VERY LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AT ALL. AT THIS POINT...              
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS                    
STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET. WEAK GLOBAL CANADIAN SOLUTION ALSO             
SUGGESTS LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS/NAM AT THIS TIME. IMPRESSIVE                 
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 300MB JET WILL YIELD A                    
SIGNIFICANT STRIPE OF PCPN LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES N OF SFC LOW            
TRACK. HOWEVER...IN FAVORING THE FLATTER ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION...BULK            
OF THAT RAIN WILL PASS BY TO THE SE OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.                 
SHOULD A MORE NRLY SOLUTION PAN OUT...A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD                  
RAINFALL WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. GRIDS WILL BE STRUCTURED             
TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS SE (STILL JUST CHC CATEGORY) WITH DRY WEATHER              
NW MON AFTN/NIGHT.                                                              
WED THRU SAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS) ARE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NAMERICA DURING THIS TIME            
FRAME. ALL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE REGIME ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE             
S OF THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERING ITSELF OVER NCNTRL CANADA. THERE IS             
ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF OF INTEREST THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE NRN              
CONUS...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE IN                 
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE TROF. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON THE                 
OVERALL PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...CONFIDENCE DURING THE                 
WED-SAT PERIOD IS ABOVE NORMAL. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES TUE NIGHT WILL SLIP QUICKLY TO THE E. WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE             
FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF TUE NIGHT...WILL GO AT OR              
BLO THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E.               
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. ON WED...SFC LOW                
PRES TROF WILL EMERGE OVER THE WRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE                    
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF. WAA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WED...THOUGH IT            
APPEARS THE BEST WAA WILL STILL REMAIN W AND SW OF THE FCST AREA                
THRU THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT                     
ANTICYCLONIC...ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED IN THE ECWMF. FOR THESE                   
REASONS...CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS FROM ALL BUT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
FOR NOW...WILL TRIM POPS BACK FROM THE INHERITED FCST TO INCLUDE                
JUST THE FAR WRN FCST AREA WED AFTN. SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN PROGRESS E             
ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEARING              
100M AND A NICE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...THIS SYSTEM OFFERS THE                
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED PCPN THOUGH QUICK MOVEMENT WILL            
WORK TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH            
CHC RANGE AS MODEL TIMING CHANGES OF 12HRS OR MORE ARE CERTAINLY                
POSSIBLE 4-6 DAYS OUT INTO MODEL RUNS. EVENTUALLY...HIGH POPS SHOULD            
BE REQUIRED ONCE TIMING IS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES               
MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING IN BACKSIDE CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL DRY                
FCST OUT FOR FRI/SAT IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS             
THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID              
SEPT.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY AT BOTH SITES THE             
REST OF THIS AFTN WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR               
SDNGS/SMALL SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HTG. BUT            
THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR A GRDL IMPROVEMENT WITH THIS SFC HTG LIFTING            
THE CIG BASE. MVFR CIGS WL LIKELY REDVLP AT CMX TNGT WITH EXPECTED              
UPSLOPE WLY FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR            
NOW IN WRN MN TENDS TO BREAK UP ANY LO CLD. SAW WL BE MORE SHELTERED            
FM THIS FLOW...SO RADIATION FOG IS A POSSIBILITY THERE. THEN VFR                
CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AFT ANY MRNG FOG BURNS OFF AT SAW ON SUN              
THRU 18Z.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO DRIFT INTO                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK 30.0 INCH                 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO               
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS                   
PERIOD. A 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY SUNDAY            
MORNING WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD            
FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL              
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW WILL            
FORM OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY EVENING AND DEEPEN TO AS IT MOVES            
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE              
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...                 
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY                  
EVENING...WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
350 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/                                                  
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR                         
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE                      
WILL GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN                 
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
A SECOND STORM SYSTEM...MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE                      
UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.                   
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...                 
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW                   
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MQT WITH AN EQUALLY AS WEAK SURFACE                      
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO               
SOUTH.  WITHIN A LOOSE LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS AHEAD OF THE                       
TROUGH...DIURNAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SPOTTY SHOWER                       
ACTIVITY...MOST PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE FAR NORTHERN             
LOWER LAKE HURON SHORELINE.  THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT              
LAKES HAVE GIVEN A BOOST TO THESE SHOWERS AS DELTA T/S ARE AROUND               
11C.  WITH THE LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND OVER-WATER                
INSTABILITY...A COUPLE WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN SIGHTED NEAR THE                   
STRAITS AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON SHORELINE.  AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH                
EXTENDS WEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW TOWARDS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH            
IS ALSO SUPPORTING SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FARTHER SOUTHWEST...A FAIRLY               
POTENT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA WHICH HAS EYES ON THE                
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.P. WILL SHIFT NE            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOSELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS                    
EMANATING FROM THIS LOW WILL EXIT INTO LAKE HURON BY                            
MID-EVENING...ENDING ANY SPOTTY SHOWER AND WATERSPOUT THREAT ACROSS             
NORTHERN LOWER FOR A PERIOD.  THINGS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR ACROSS                  
EASTERN UPPER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER AS A               
RESULT OF THE SURFACE LOW NEARBY.  THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN            
THE ACTION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE EVENING AS WELL...AS                 
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND ISENTROPIC DESCENT ARRIVE FOR A LITTLE WHILE.             
NAM/GFS BOTH POINT TOWARDS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS                
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THIS               
MORNING WAS ANY INDICATION...INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DELTA T/S                 
AROUND 11C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PROVIDE A BOOST TO ANY               
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...DECENT                   
LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT               
LAKES BY MORNING.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN              
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                 
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT                  
PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF M-55 VERY LATE.  LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND                            
INTERESTINGLY...TURN THE SWITCH TO METEOROLOGICAL FALL                          
AND THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO FOLLOW SUIT...FEATURING A MUCH MORE            
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS            
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...FEATURING BROAD               
NORTHERN CONUS AND WESTERN LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS...WHICH WILL             
BE RIDDLED WITH RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES.               
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY PLAGUES THE EXTENDED...SOME USEFUL                    
INFORMATION CAN BE ASCERTAINED...NAMELY A CONTINUATION OF THE                   
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN AND MAINTENANCE OF THE COOL EARLY SEPTEMBER              
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE TIMING                
DECREASES NEARLY EXPONENTIALLY FARTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED...                   
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT HIGHER (ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD             
LIKE) THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NOAM WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS CONFIRMS                
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TRIFECTA OF DECENT SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT            
THE GREAT LAKES...ONE EXITING STAGE RIGHT DURING SUNDAY MORNING...              
WITH PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER ONES CUTTING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES NOT OVERWHELMING             
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...DYNAMICS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE...                   
BRINGING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING PASSAGE OF                   
AFOREMENTIONED WAVES. STILL LOOKING LIKE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH                   
SUNDAYS WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO              
FOCUS BETTER POTENTIAL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (STILL LOW CHANCE AT               
BEST). INTERESTINGLY...FARTHER NORTH...PASSAGE OF SUBTLE SURFACE                
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING...AUGMENTED WITH                   
POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AXIS...MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE                  
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS (DELTA T/S ON THE ORDER OF 11C TO                   
12C)...AND MID LEVEL WEAK SHEAR AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A                
SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WATER TOWARDS MORNING...WHICH                
PROPAGATE INLAND AS SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME OVERWHELMS THE LAND BREEZE.            
A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDED THIS PAST MORNING...WITH CLEAR EVIDENCE             
OF ADDED LAKE MICHIGAN SUPPORT AS SHOWERS ADVANCED FROM WISCONSIN.              
OTHERWISE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME                 
SEMBLANCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS PIVOTING INTO THE AREA. NEXT              
WAVE SLATED TO DROP SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME WITH BETTER              
DYNAMICS PASSING OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND POINTS NORTH. MUCH             
LIKE SUNDAY...JUST NOT OVERLY SOLD ON SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH LIMITED             
MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT ESSENTIALLY PASSING              
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL TAPER CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH            
SOME WEST/EAST TIMING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WITH             
900MB LIFTED PARCELS YIELDING NEARLY 400 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE.                  
PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED BEGINS LATE               
MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG                   
SHORTWAVE MAKES THE TURN TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS...WITH SIGHTS SET ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST NAM-WRF              
AND GFS GUIDANCE HAVE REALLY AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM...DROPPING                   
SURFACE PRESSURE TO SUB 1000MB AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN                    
MICHIGAN. OTHER GUIDANCE REMAINS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND HENCE               
FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW (IN FACT...12Z GEM HAS                   
ESSENTIALLY NO SURFACE REFLECTION). IF AMERICAN GUIDANCE IS TO BE               
BELIEVED...RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY (OVER AN INCH WITH QPF FIELDS) WILL             
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING                  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS...IT                   
APPEARS BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS ARE UNREALISTICALLY AGGRESSIVE                 
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE RESPONSE (TOO QUICKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS) AFTER             
PASSAGES OF LATE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES. THIS ALLOWS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE             
TO OVER-AMPLIFY AND PUSH FARTHER NORTHEAST. IN LIGHT OF THE                     
ABOVE...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE...FEATURING               
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA AND MUCH LESS RAINFALL.             
HAVE LINGERED LIGHT SHOWER MENTION INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM               
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN                  
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE               
DIGITS.                                                                         
LOOKING FARTHER OUT...AS MENTIONED...QUESTIONS ABOUND LATER IN THE              
FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF A DRY MIDWEEK              
PERIOD AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXES CREST THE REGION. BEYOND             
THIS...MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING                
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                  
HOWEVER...WITH HURRICANE IKE NOW SLATED TO PASS INTO THE GULF OF                
MEXICO (PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE)...WOULD EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO AT              
LEAST TRY TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE ON OVERALL CONUS FLOW REGIME...POSSIBLY            
PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM               
SHORTWAVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...FELT IT WOULD BE A FORECAST                    
INJUSTICE TO TRY ANY SORT OF TIMING...AND HAVE TOOK THE SIMPLE                  
APPROACH OF MAINTAINING FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH POP AND WEATHER                
GRIDS AND RUNNING WITH HPC GUIDANCE ALL OTHERS.                                 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW            
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT               
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.                                              
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/                                                    
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG A                       
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS...AND HAVE BEEN GETTING A BOOST FROM THE               
WARM LAKE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SHOWER...ALONG WITH              
THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS             
NE LOWER AND FAR EASTERN UPPER UNTIL THIS AXIS MOVES OVER THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MARINE                 
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT.                     
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 100 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS                             
CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WEAK                              
SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WILL TRACK NE OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR WITH ITS TRAILING COOL FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING                   
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SPOTTY               
WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES.  SECONDARY SURFACE             
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  HARD TO               
SAY IF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.  CERTAINLY IS             
POSSIBLE...JUDGING BY WHAT OCCURRED UPSTREAM THIS MORNING.  BEST                
CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE AT PLN AND WILL TREND TOWARDS LOWER VSBYS            
AND CIGS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING LOCK/STOCK/AND BARREL DUE TO             
POOR MODEL GUIDANCE. SO...WILL KEEP VFR GOING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD            
EXCEPT AT PLN.                                                                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
126 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT                                               
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING                  
CENTERED OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ON THE E AND W COASTS.                   
SHRTWV/DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE MOVING              
RDPLY NE THRU SE CAN...BUT A SUBTLE LO PRES TROF REMAINS OVER THE FA            
ON ITS WRN FLANK. RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A GOOD AMT OF LLVL MSTR              
REMAINS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H75                
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SO QUITE A BIT OF SC IS PRESENT DESPITE DIURNAL               
HTG THAT HAS LIFTED CLD BASE AND ENDED ANY -DZ THAT WAS OBSVD                   
EARLIER. THE COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER LK SUP RELATED TO              
THE LK BREEZE CIRCULATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FM              
THE NW THAT WAS SHOWN BEST ON THE 00Z RAOBS FM INL/YPL HAS TENDED TO            
BREAK UP THE CLD MORE AGGRESSIVELY THERE AND NEAR THE LK SHORES.                
NEXT SHRTWV OF CONCERN IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS NRN MN ALONG WITH AN            
ASSOCIATED SFC LO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLD TO THE N AND W OF                
THIS LO...AND THE ERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLD IS MOVING TOWARD WRN              
LK SUP. SOME SCT -SHRA ARE AS FAR E AS DLH IN AXIS OF HIER SPECIFIC             
HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H7) BY THE 12Z NAM              
F6. BUT OVERALL PCPN COVG SEEMS LIMITED BY THE DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON            
THE 12Z MPX RAOB.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT AND SAT)... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT                              
FOR TNGT...12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHRTWV NOW OVER NRN MN SHEARING ENEWD               
AND WEAKENING A BIT TO NEAR ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z SAT AS UPR TROF AXIS             
REMAINS SITUATED IN THE PLAINS. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO IS PROGGED              
TO REACH THE WRN SHORE OF THE U.P. BOTH MODELS SHOW AXIS OF HIEST               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NOW OVER MN AND ON THE 300K SFC SHIFTING INTO THE             
W THIS EVNG THEN THE ECNTRL BY 12Z SAT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON            
THE 295-305K SFCS/QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE H85-5 LYR. GFS IS A BIT MORE             
GENEROUS WITH QPF...BUT PREFER THE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST NAM GIVEN               
THE MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB THAT IS LIMITING PCPN             
COVG NOW. STILL...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO 40 BEFORE FAIRLY                
AGGRESSIVE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON THE SE             
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK OVERSPRDS THE FA. GOING FCST MIN TEMPS ARE            
FAIRLY IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS/ETA/NGM MOS GUIDANCE...SO NO SGNFT               
CHGS MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                        
ON SAT...THE DEEPER MSTR ALF WL IMPACT THE ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG                  
BEFORE THE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IS FCST TO CLR ERY BY 18Z OR SO AS            
THE SHRTWV NR ISLE ROYALE/SFC LO OVER WRN LK SUP AT 12Z SHIFTS NE               
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE W...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHETHER ENUF LLVL MSTR             
WL LINGER TO ALLOW THE REDVLPMNT OF MORE SHRA WITH DIURNAL HTG. IF              
THE TIME OF YEAR WERE CLOSER TO THE SUMMER SOLSTICE...THAT WOULD BE             
A REAL CONCERN. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDE THE PRESENCE OF                    
LINGERING LO CLD IN THE MRNG WHICH DVLPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE                
DRYING ALF LATE TNGT AND THAT WOULD LIMIT SFC HTG. CONSIDERING THE              
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MID LVL DRY AIR EXHIBITED IN GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING...BELIEVE REDVLPMNT OF                  
DIURNAL SHRA IN THE AFTN IS A LO POTENTIAL. SO ELECTED TO CUT GOING             
GENERAL 30 POP TO NO MORE THAN 20.                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THIS PERIOD REMAINS PLAGUED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES...MAKING SPECIFIC                
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT.  FOR THE LONG TERM                
THIS RESULTS IN AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS.                 
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD THANKS TO A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.  A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM              
IS FIGURED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES.  THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THUNDERSTORM                            
ACTIVITY...ALBEIT ISOLATED.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE                
WEST TO EAST OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE              
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO                   
STRENTHEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING.              
THIS SHOULD KEEP NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF            
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO AT LEAST MONDAY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK            
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW                
SETS UP AT 500MB.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY FOR THIS            
PERIOD...EXCLUDING SKY COVER WHICH NEEDED TO BE MINIMIZED A LITTLE              
MORE INITIALLY.  THIS WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLES...WITH A LEAN              
TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS.  FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                      
THOUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
-SHRA WHICH HAVE ARRIVED IN THE KCMX VCNTY WILL SPREAD TO KSAW OVER             
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM MN TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. PER            
UPSTREAM OBS...EXPECT CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO BE VFR EVEN THOUGH                
PCPN WILL BE OCCURRING. HOWEVER...AS PCPN DIMINISHES/ENDS...EXPECT              
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH LOW CLOUD/FOG FORMING UNDER ARRIVAL             
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND ABOVE THE LOW-LEVELS MOISTENED BY PCPN.                
THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT SAT MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING             
VFR IN THE AFTN AND CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER               
NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN             
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NO                  
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON             
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25 KNOTS...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF...AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH             
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1021 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER INVERSION BASED NEAR                
850MB THAN INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. EVEN THOUGH THE MOIST                  
LAYER IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION SHOULD                
KEEP THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED. SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR                 
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER. NORTHERLY FLOW                
AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY OFF LAKE HURON SHOULD ADD SOME LAKE                     
CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUDS AS WELL. SO WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE                  
CLOUD COVER A BIT. NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD STILL ALLOW                  
SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND POSSIBLY                  
MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED...HAVE                     
INCREASED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. WILL ALSO REMOVE MENTION OF               
FOG WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY WERE SIGNIFICANT                   
PERIODS OF CLEARING MAY STILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 703 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN                    
ALLOWING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE STRATO CU FIELD. BASES HAVE ALSO            
RISEN TO VFR. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE LATEST DTW                  
TAMDAR SOUNDING LENDS MORE SUPPORT TO RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH               
SHOW A LITTLE GREATER DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WOULD                    
THEREFORE EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF A VFR STRATO CU FIELD                    
UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT. THE                         
INSTABILITY PROFILE OVER LAKE HURON IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE                  
STRATUS TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS STRATUS                        
INLAND...LIKELY IMPACTING FNT AND DTW WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z.                 
MEANWHILE...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A                
SCT DECK AT MBS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO              
SCATTER OUT BY 15Z SUN.                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS              
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. A               
FEW SPRINKLES ARE SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS OUT OF THE DENSE                    
STRATOCU DECK THAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS DECK IS                
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA                   
EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOP LATE THIS                            
EVENING. MEANWHILE A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING                         
BACK FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE WILL HELP             
THE CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                
COUNTIES. DESPITE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN DEWPOINTS...NORTHERLY              
WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO ADD MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER MAKING PATCHY FOG A CONCERN FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKES TONIGHT.             
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE NORTH WHERE SKIES SHOULD              
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN                   
THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON OVERNIGHT.                                
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY                                        
UPPER SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER KS/NE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS              
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK               
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.               
THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON TOMORROW                  
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE A                  
LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WITH MODELS STREAMING SOME                 
MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THESE FEATURE TOMORROW...AND GUIDANCE EVEN                 
KICKING OUT SOME POPS...WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS UP AROUND THE             
TRI-CITIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT                      
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOWARDS               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THESE FEATURES PASS TO OUR NORTH.                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK UP INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.             
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.              
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF FAST ENERGETIC WESTERLY                
FLOW THAT WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY. INDIVIDUAL               
WAVES THAT WILL EJECT THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BE HARD TO TIME...BUT              
LARGER WAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND                   
MONDAY. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP             
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL               
LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS GREAT MOIST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT OCCURING EARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA...THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS DIFFERS            
SLIGHTLY AND KEEPS STRONGER ASCENT LIMITED TO THE TRI-CITIES AND                
THUMB. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE                 
EXPECTATION OF SEEING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69...AT                
LEAST UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD             
BE FAIRLY LIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER WAVES MOVES               
THROUGH MICHIGAN AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                    
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE             
FRONT EXITS AND A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.               
CONDITIONS WILL TURN QUITE FALL-LIKE ON TUESDAY AS H850 TEMPS COOL              
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT            
STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN THE UPPER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THEN                 
DROPPING INTO THE 40S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SOME CONCERN FOR                   
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL AIR STREAMS                
OVER THE VERY WARM LAKES. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WOULD HAVE AN              
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE AJUSTED IF                
THIS SCENARIO STARTS TO LOOK MORE FAVORABLE                                     
HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY             
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER                
TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THEY              
HANDLE MID-WEEK UPSTREAM ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE A              
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVING TOWARDS THE END              
OF THE WEEK...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS...AMPLITUDE...AND                 
EXACT TIMING.                                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES            
NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS            
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WHILE OTHER AREAS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO            
SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED OVERNIGHT FOR THE            
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND INTO SATURDAY ON NEARSHORE AREAS FROM PORT                
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC AS WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH UNDER NORTHERLY                
WINDS.                                                                          
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR BOATING FROM SATURDAY                 
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT             
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY CREATING MORE             
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE WARMER                
LAKE WATERS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR         
     BEACH...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT          
     SANILAC...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.                                             
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...KEC                                                                
LONG TERM....HLO                                                                
MARINE.......KEC                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
738 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT                                               
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING                  
CENTERED OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ON THE E AND W COASTS.                   
SHRTWV/DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE MOVING              
RDPLY NE THRU SE CAN...BUT A SUBTLE LO PRES TROF REMAINS OVER THE FA            
ON ITS WRN FLANK. RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A GOOD AMT OF LLVL MSTR              
REMAINS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H75                
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SO QUITE A BIT OF SC IS PRESENT DESPITE DIURNAL               
HTG THAT HAS LIFTED CLD BASE AND ENDED ANY -DZ THAT WAS OBSVD                   
EARLIER. THE COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER LK SUP RELATED TO              
THE LK BREEZE CIRCULATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FM              
THE NW THAT WAS SHOWN BEST ON THE 00Z RAOBS FM INL/YPL HAS TENDED TO            
BREAK UP THE CLD MORE AGGRESSIVELY THERE AND NEAR THE LK SHORES.                
NEXT SHRTWV OF CONCERN IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS NRN MN ALONG WITH AN            
ASSOCIATED SFC LO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLD TO THE N AND W OF                
THIS LO...AND THE ERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLD IS MOVING TOWARD WRN              
LK SUP. SOME SCT -SHRA ARE AS FAR E AS DLH IN AXIS OF HIER SPECIFIC             
HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H7) BY THE 12Z NAM              
F6. BUT OVERALL PCPN COVG SEEMS LIMITED BY THE DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON            
THE 12Z MPX RAOB.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND SAT)... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT                   
FOR TNGT...12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHRTWV NOW OVER NRN MN SHEARING ENEWD               
AND WEAKENING A BIT TO NEAR ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z SAT AS UPR TROF AXIS             
REMAINS SITUATED IN THE PLAINS. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO IS PROGGED              
TO REACH THE WRN SHORE OF THE U.P. BOTH MODELS SHOW AXIS OF HIEST               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NOW OVER MN AND ON THE 300K SFC SHIFTING INTO THE             
W THIS EVNG THEN THE ECNTRL BY 12Z SAT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON            
THE 295-305K SFCS/QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE H85-5 LYR. GFS IS A BIT MORE             
GENEROUS WITH QPF...BUT PREFER THE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST NAM GIVEN               
THE MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB THAT IS LIMITING PCPN             
COVG NOW. STILL...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO 40 BEFORE FAIRLY                
AGGRESSIVE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON THE SE             
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK OVERSPRDS THE FA. GOING FCST MIN TEMPS ARE            
FAIRLY IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS/ETA/NGM MOS GUIDANCE...SO NO SGNFT               
CHGS MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                        
ON SAT...THE DEEPER MSTR ALF WL IMPACT THE ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG                  
BEFORE THE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IS FCST TO CLR ERY BY 18Z OR SO AS            
THE SHRTWV NR ISLE ROYALE/SFC LO OVER WRN LK SUP AT 12Z SHIFTS NE               
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE W...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHETHER ENUF LLVL MSTR             
WL LINGER TO ALLOW THE REDVLPMNT OF MORE SHRA WITH DIURNAL HTG. IF              
THE TIME OF YEAR WERE CLOSER TO THE SUMMER SOLSTICE...THAT WOULD BE             
A REAL CONCERN. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDE THE PRESENCE OF                    
LINGERING LO CLD IN THE MRNG WHICH DVLPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE                
DRYING ALF LATE TNGT AND THAT WOULD LIMIT SFC HTG. CONSIDERING THE              
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MID LVL DRY AIR EXHIBITED IN GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING...BELIEVE REDVLPMNT OF                  
DIURNAL SHRA IN THE AFTN IS A LO POTENTIAL. SO ELECTED TO CUT GOING             
GENERAL 30 POP TO NO MORE THAN 20.                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THIS PERIOD REMAINS PLAGUED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES...MAKING SPECIFIC                
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT.  FOR THE LONG TERM                
THIS RESULTS IN AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS.                 
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD THANKS TO A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.  A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM              
IS FIGURED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES.  THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THUNDERSTORM                            
ACTIVITY...ALBEIT ISOLATED.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE                
WEST TO EAST OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE              
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO                   
STRENTHEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING.              
THIS SHOULD KEEP NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF            
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO AT LEAST MONDAY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK            
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW                
SETS UP AT 500MB.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY FOR THIS            
PERIOD...EXCLUDING SKY COVER WHICH NEEDED TO BE MINIMIZED A LITTLE              
MORE INITIALLY.  THIS WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLES...WITH A LEAN              
TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS.  FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                      
THOUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS              
INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SCT -SHRA WL ARRIVE LATER IN THE             
NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM MN TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH VFR              
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WHEN THE PCPN ARRIVES...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH              
LOW CLOUD/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AS PCPN ENDS WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR             
ALOFT ABOVE THE LOW-LEVELS MOISTENED BY THE PCPN AND DIURNAL                    
COOLING. THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT SAT MORNING...BUT VFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER               
NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN             
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NO                  
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON             
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25 KNOTS...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF...AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH             
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
730 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008)                                         
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE MID SECTION OF               
THE NATION WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN                  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER                
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY            
UNDER ONE HALF INCH AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008)                                       
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)                                                  
MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS LINGERING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON                 
APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.              
WINDS WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING                 
IN... WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY               
CONSIDERING ALL THE RAIN WHICH HAS RECENTLY FALLEN. NOT SURE JUST               
HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THE FOG MAY GET... BUT WILL INCLUDE PATCHY              
FOG IN THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z.                                                     
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS            
IN BASE OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT             
AND SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY IN NRN               
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK/EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS             
FEATURE.                                                                        
THE H5 VORT PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH              
IS VERY NOISY AND THE TIMING/LOCATION OF SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES TO               
IMPACT THE REGION AFTER SATURDAY IS VERY DIFFICULT. FOR THAT REASON             
WILL CARRY POPS IN EACH PERIOD. POPS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME                  
HOWEVER AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST AND A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO                  
SLOW/STALL SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SRN LWR MI TO THE SRN PLAINS.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008)                                        
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED                   
PERIOD. WE/LL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY                 
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A LOW IS PROGD TO RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO            
THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA. ALONG WITH THE SFC WAVE THERE            
IS ALSO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO HELP IN PCPN PRODUCTION. DUE TO WEAK            
INSTABILITY...MORE SHRA THAN TSRA ARE EXPECTED. DRY WX RETURNS TUE              
AND WED NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT TRIES TO COME BACK NORTH THURSDAY             
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGD TO              
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. WE/LL HAVE TSRA IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR                
BOTH OF THE FRONTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND             
70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(630 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008)                                           
BUOY #45007 IN SRN LAKE MI SHOWS A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN WAVES               
WITH HEIGHTS NOW BELOW 4 FEET. LOCAL WEBCAMS SHOWING MUCH QUIETER               
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...TOO. HAVE THEREFORE LET THE SMALL              
CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 6 PM EDT...AND SENT OUT AN                
UPDATED NEARSHORE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(730 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008)                                         
WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR JXN...WHICH                 
SHOULD SHOULD LOSE ITS MVFR CIGS BEFORE 02Z.                                    
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE IA/WI/MN BORDER MOVING NE. THIS              
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE NE. RECENT TRENDS INDICATE A              
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE LOSS            
OF DAYTIME HEATING. BASED ON SATELLITE AND RUC MODEL PROGS...WE DO              
EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER LOW/MID CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA                 
AROUND 05Z WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WE DID NOT MENTION THIS IN              
THE TAFS BECAUSE WE BELIEVE CIGS WILL STAY IN VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE              
3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG THREAT MENTIONED               
ELSEWHERE IN THIS DISCUSSION. THE MOST PROBABLY NEED FOR AMENDMENTS             
LATER TONIGHT WOULD BE TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS...BUT WE ARE NOT YET              
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DO THIS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008)                                        
MAX RAINFALL FROM GUSTAV WAS 3-5 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BETWEEN             
SOUTH HAVEN AND WHITEHALL... EAST NORTHEAST FROM THERE ACROSS GRAND             
RAPIDS AND NEWAYGO AND INTO BIG RAPIDS AND GREENVILLE. AMOUNTS                  
TAPERED OFF RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BATTLE CREEK TO ALMA               
WHERE LESS THAN ONE INCH WAS REPORTED.                                          
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF STANDING WATER IN YARDS AND A FEW              
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS... BUT IN GENERAL NO              
SERIOUS FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY                     
CONDITIONS PRECEDING THIS EVENT. NONE OF THE RIVER FCST POINTS ARE              
FCST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                               
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY BELOW               
ONE HALF INCH AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO            
IMPACT ON THE CURRENT HYDRO SITUATION. ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD                 
LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     MEADE                                                             
SHORT TERM:   MEADE                                                             
LONG TERM:    93                                                                
MARINE:       TJT                                                               
AVIATION:     TJT                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN                    
ALLOWING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE STRATO CU FIELD. BASES HAVE ALSO            
RISEN TO VFR. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE LATEST DTW                  
TAMDAR SOUNDING LENDS MORE SUPPORT TO RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH               
SHOW A LITTLE GREATER DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WOULD                    
THEREFORE EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF A VFR STRATO CU FIELD                    
UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT. THE                         
INSTABILITY PROFILE OVER LAKE HURON IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE                  
STRATUS TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS STRATUS                        
INLAND...LIKELY IMPACTING FNT AND DTW WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z.                 
MEANWHILE...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A                
SCT DECK AT MBS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO              
SCATTER OUT BY 15Z SUN.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS              
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. A               
FEW SPRINKLES ARE SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS OUT OF THE DENSE                    
STRATOCU DECK THAT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS DECK IS                
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA                   
EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOP LATE THIS                            
EVENING. MEANWHILE A LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING                         
BACK FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE WILL HELP             
THE CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                
COUNTIES. DESPITE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN DEWPOINTS...NORTHERLY              
WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO ADD MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER MAKING PATCHY FOG A CONCERN FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKES TONIGHT.             
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE NORTH WHERE SKIES SHOULD              
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN                   
THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON OVERNIGHT.                                
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY                                        
UPPER SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER KS/NE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS              
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK               
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.               
THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON TOMORROW                  
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE A                  
LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WITH MODELS STREAMING SOME                 
MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THESE FEATURE TOMORROW...AND GUIDANCE EVEN                 
KICKING OUT SOME POPS...WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS UP AROUND THE             
TRI-CITIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT                      
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOWARDS               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THESE FEATURES PASS TO OUR NORTH.                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK UP INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.             
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.              
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF FAST ENERGETIC WESTERLY                
FLOW THAT WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY. INDIVIDUAL               
WAVES THAT WILL EJECT THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BE HARD TO TIME...BUT              
LARGER WAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND                   
MONDAY. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP             
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING...AND INTO CENTRAL               
LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS GREAT MOIST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT OCCURING EARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA...THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS DIFFERS            
SLIGHTLY AND KEEPS STRONGER ASCENT LIMITED TO THE TRI-CITIES AND                
THUMB. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE                 
EXPECTATION OF SEEING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69...AT                
LEAST UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD             
BE FAIRLY LIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER WAVES MOVES               
THROUGH MICHIGAN AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                    
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE             
FRONT EXITS AND A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.               
CONDITIONS WILL TURN QUITE FALL-LIKE ON TUESDAY AS H850 TEMPS COOL              
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT            
STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN THE UPPER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THEN                 
DROPPING INTO THE 40S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SOME CONCERN FOR                   
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL AIR STREAMS                
OVER THE VERY WARM LAKES. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WOULD HAVE AN              
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE AJUSTED IF                
THIS SCENARIO STARTS TO LOOK MORE FAVORABLE                                     
HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY             
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER                
TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THEY              
HANDLE MID-WEEK UPSTREAM ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE A              
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVING TOWARDS THE END              
OF THE WEEK...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS...AMPLITUDE...AND                 
EXACT TIMING.                                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES            
NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS            
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WHILE OTHER AREAS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO            
SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED OVERNIGHT FOR THE            
OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND INTO SATURDAY ON NEARSHORE AREAS FROM PORT                
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC AS WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH UNDER NORTHERLY                
WINDS.                                                                          
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR BOATING FROM SATURDAY                 
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT             
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY CREATING MORE             
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE WARMER                
LAKE WATERS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR         
     BEACH...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT          
     SANILAC...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.                                             
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...KEC                                                                
LONG TERM....HLO                                                                
MARINE.......KEC                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING                  
CENTERED OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ON THE E AND W COASTS.                   
SHRTWV/DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE MOVING              
RDPLY NE THRU SE CAN...BUT A SUBTLE LO PRES TROF REMAINS OVER THE FA            
ON ITS WRN FLANK. RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A GOOD AMT OF LLVL MSTR              
REMAINS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H75                
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SO QUITE A BIT OF SC IS PRESENT DESPITE DIURNAL               
HTG THAT HAS LIFTED CLD BASE AND ENDED ANY -DZ THAT WAS OBSVD                   
EARLIER. THE COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER LK SUP RELATED TO              
THE LK BREEZE CIRCULATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FM              
THE NW THAT WAS SHOWN BEST ON THE 00Z RAOBS FM INL/YPL HAS TENDED TO            
BREAK UP THE CLD MORE AGGRESSIVELY THERE AND NEAR THE LK SHORES.                
NEXT SHRTWV OF CONCERN IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS NRN MN ALONG WITH AN            
ASSOCIATED SFC LO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLD TO THE N AND W OF                
THIS LO...AND THE ERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLD IS MOVING TOWARD WRN              
LK SUP. SOME SCT -SHRA ARE AS FAR E AS DLH IN AXIS OF HIER SPECIFIC             
HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H7) BY THE 12Z NAM              
F6. BUT OVERALL PCPN COVG SEEMS LIMITED BY THE DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON            
THE 12Z MPX RAOB.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND SAT)...                                        
FOR TNGT...12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHRTWV NOW OVER NRN MN SHEARING ENEWD               
AND WEAKENING A BIT TO NEAR ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z SAT AS UPR TROF AXIS             
REMAINS SITUATED IN THE PLAINS. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO IS PROGGED              
TO REACH THE WRN SHORE OF THE U.P. BOTH MODELS SHOW AXIS OF HIEST               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NOW OVER MN AND ON THE 300K SFC SHIFTING INTO THE             
W THIS EVNG THEN THE ECNTRL BY 12Z SAT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON            
THE 295-305K SFCS/QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE H85-5 LYR. GFS IS A BIT MORE             
GENEROUS WITH QPF...BUT PREFER THE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST NAM GIVEN               
THE MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB THAT IS LIMITING PCPN             
COVG NOW. STILL...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO 40 BEFORE FAIRLY                
AGGRESSIVE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON THE SE             
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK OVERSPRDS THE FA. GOING FCST MIN TEMPS ARE            
FAIRLY IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS/ETA/NGM MOS GUIDANCE...SO NO SGNFT               
CHGS MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                        
ON SAT...THE DEEPER MSTR ALF WL IMPACT THE ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG                  
BEFORE THE DRYING ON THE 300K SFC IS FCST TO CLR ERY BY 18Z OR SO AS            
THE SHRTWV NR ISLE ROYALE/SFC LO OVER WRN LK SUP AT 12Z SHIFTS NE               
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE W...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHETHER ENUF LLVL MSTR             
WL LINGER TO ALLOW THE REDVLPMNT OF MORE SHRA WITH DIURNAL HTG. IF              
THE TIME OF YEAR WERE CLOSER TO THE SUMMER SOLSTICE...THAT WOULD BE             
A REAL CONCERN. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDE THE PRESENCE OF                    
LINGERING LO CLD IN THE MRNG WHICH DVLPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE                
DRYING ALF LATE TNGT AND THAT WOULD LIMIT SFC HTG. CONSIDERING THE              
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MID LVL DRY AIR EXHIBITED IN GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING...BELIEVE REDVLPMNT OF                  
DIURNAL SHRA IN THE AFTN IS A LO POTENTIAL. SO ELECTED TO CUT GOING             
GENERAL 30 POP TO NO MORE THAN 20.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THIS PERIOD REMAINS PLAGUED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES...MAKING SPECIFIC                
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT.  FOR THE LONG TERM                
THIS RESULTS IN AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS.                 
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD THANKS TO A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.  A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM              
IS FIGURED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES.  THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THUNDERSTORM                            
ACTIVITY...ALBEIT ISOLATED.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE                
WEST TO EAST OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE              
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO                   
STRENTHEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING.              
THIS SHOULD KEEP NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF            
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO AT LEAST MONDAY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK            
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW                
SETS UP AT 500MB.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY FOR THIS            
PERIOD...EXCLUDING SKY COVER WHICH NEEDED TO BE MINIMIZED A LITTLE              
MORE INITIALLY.  THIS WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLES...WITH A LEAN              
TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS.  FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                      
THOUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG                
DOMINATING. SOME SHRA WL ARRIVE LATER TNGT AS A LOW PRES MOVES FM MN            
INTO WRN LK SUP. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WHEN THE RA                 
ARRIVES...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LO CLD/FOG WL DVLP TOWARD WHEN THE RA            
ENDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF ABV THE LLVLS MOISTENED BY               
THE PCPN AND DIURNAL COOLING. THERE WL BE ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT              
ON SAT MRNG.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER               
NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN             
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NO                  
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON             
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25 KNOTS...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF...AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH             
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1049 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS AND INTRODUCED THUNDER FOR THIS                        
AFTERNOON WITH MORNING UPDATE. WEAK SURFACE TROFPA AND UPPER VORT               
MAX...ALONG WITH LIMITED DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SCT               
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON....AND LATEST NAM                  
SHOWS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION                      
THREATS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                             
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS                 
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE H3 JET WELL SOUTH OF THE              
AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT                 
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AT              
TIMES. THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SCENARIO                    
TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEK.                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA THIS                 
MORNING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS QUITE LIGHT AND ACROSS                
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATEST RUC PICKS UP NICELY ON                 
THE VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH WEAK SURFACE               
LOW PRESSURE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                  
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS THEY                  
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO PUSH                  
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH               
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.                
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3                
OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED IN THE SOUTH. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT               
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...BUT WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.                  
A DECENT SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND               
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE              
AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD SET OFF A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS SOME 60 POP NUMBERS               
FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN 50                 
POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.                
EARLY TO MID WEEK RIDGING SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVE QUIET               
FROM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A VERY                     
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER IN BETWEEN...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT                
FOR NOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE AT SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY               
AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF IN               
OK AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT...AND MAY NEED TO KEEP INCREASING POPS               
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. COULD BE SOME DECENT RAIN.                             
TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE...WITH                  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH               
LITTLE EXCEPTION.                                                               
AVIATION...SCT TO ISOLD -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH                 
SCT IFR CIGS AND FG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AFT 14Z...CEILINGS               
AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE FA. THE SHRA ACTIVITY IS                  
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP THIS                   
AFTERNOON....MAINLY AFT 20Z WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE NRN               
HALF OF THE FA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  64  44  60  42 /  30  30  50  20                                           
INL  62  41  58  39 /  40  40  50  10                                           
BRD  70  46  61  44 /  20  30  50  10                                           
HYR  69  44  62  43 /  30  20  50  40                                           
ASX  65  46  62  44 /  30  20  50  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LILES                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
333 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION                     
THREATS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                             
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS                 
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE H3 JET WELL SOUTH OF THE              
AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT                 
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AT              
TIMES. THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SCENARIO                    
TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEK.                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA THIS                 
MORNING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS QUITE LIGHT AND ACROSS                
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATEST RUC PICKS UP NICELY ON                 
THE VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH WEAK SURFACE               
LOW PRESSURE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                  
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS THEY                  
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO PUSH                  
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH               
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.                
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3                
OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED IN THE SOUTH. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT               
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...BUT WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.                  
A DECENT SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND               
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE              
AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD SET OFF A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS SOME 60 POP NUMBERS               
FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN 50                 
POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.                
EARLY TO MID WEEK RIDGING SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVE QUIET               
FROM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A VERY                     
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER IN BETWEEN...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT                
FOR NOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE AT SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY               
AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF IN               
OK AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT...AND MAY NEED TO KEEP INCREASING POPS               
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. COULD BE SOME DECENT RAIN.                             
TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE...WITH                  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH               
LITTLE EXCEPTION.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCT TO ISOLD -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH                
SCT IFR CIGS AND FG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AFT 14Z...CEILINGS               
AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE FA. THE SHRA ACTIVITY IS                  
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP THIS                   
AFTERNOON....MAINLY AFT 20Z WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE NRN               
HALF OF THE FA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  64  41  58  42 /  20  20  50  20                                           
INL  62  38  57  39 /  30  40  50  10                                           
BRD  69  45  59  44 /  20  30  50  10                                           
HYR  67  43  62  43 /  20  20  50  40                                           
ASX  63  45  62  44 /  20  20  50  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP/GRANING                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
927 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRESSED SHOWERS AND EMPHASIZED A DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING                 
COMPONENT. DE-EMPHASIZED FOG. MADE WINDS MORE ONSHORE. LOWERED                  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED.                 
THE LOW IS AT THE END OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR                
THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO WHERE THE RED RIVER                    
CROSSES THE CANADIAN BORDER BACK TO THE UPPER MANITOBA LAKES. WE                
ANCPT NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE TROUGH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE                 
DEVELOPES OVER LAKE NIPIGON AND JAMES BAY...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE                
ANCPTS THIS PRSTG PATTERN. WITH A SERIES OF NEGATIVELY TILTED                   
SHORT WAVES DIGGING DOWN AND THROUGH OUR AREA...THE COLUMN WILL                 
CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT. WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT AT ALL LEVELS...                 
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK BACK INTO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES              
OVER OUR AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE NEXT STRONG              
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND BE FLWD BY AN               
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND DAMP NORTH FLOW EARLY THE COMING WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...MENTIONING PRECIPITATION                       
EVERYWHERE AND INTRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDER...AT LEAST THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT CROIX VALLEY WITH AN ACTIVE WARM              
FRONT ALONG THE INLAND COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND A                    
STRENGTHENING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE CASS LAKES AREA                    
EASTWARD TO JUST BELOW DULUTH AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SAINT CROIX               
RIVER HAS STIMULATED SMALLISH...SHALLOW BUT POTENT AND LONG LIVED               
SHOWERS DROPPING HALF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR ACROSS AT LEAST A                
DOZEN AREAS. WE DO NOT SEE LIGHTNING ATTM...BUT MIGHT SOON.                     
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT FASTER THAN AT THE SURFACE AS A               
DIGGING AND NEGATIVE-TILTED SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN TO SUPPORT THIS               
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEEPEENING NEGATIVELY-ORIENTED SURFACE LOW IS               
ALSO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER               
THE STRONGEST SHOWER AREAS. WE ARE STARTING WITH A RADICAL                      
MOISTENING OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST AND WILL BE LOOKING AT OTHER                   
PARAMETERS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC LOW NEAR PKD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELONGATED SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING NORTH TO BDE...AND SOUTH TOWARDS SAZ. MSAS INDICATES A               
WEAK SECONDARY PRESS FALL CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR RZN. THIS AGREES               
WELL WITH MDL FCST OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ELONGATING SE THIS                
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SE WISC             
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. PRECIP HAS BEEN MINIMAL            
AS FORCING IS WEAK. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING                     
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ENTERING SW CORNER OF CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE               
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. 4KM SPC NMM-WRF SIM REFL PRODUCT                
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS CLUSTER AND WORKS IT EAST THIS AFTERNOON                  
TOWARD TWIN PORTS....WEAKENING THE INTENSITY AS IT DOES. A CELL                 
DID PULSE TO 52DBZ AT 11K WITHIN PAST HR NEAR CASS LAKE BUT HAS                 
WEAKENED IN SUBSEQUENT SCANS. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS WE NEED 50DBZ               
CORES TO 16/17K TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HAIL. MARGINAL                      
PARAMETERS FOR SIG CONVECTION AS SFC/MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW                       
1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 35KTS IN BEST CAPE                     
VICINITY. HAVE LEFT ISO TRW IN FCST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO               
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR.                              
TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC PRESS TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN                 
ITASCA TO SAWYER COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL                 
CRAWL NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. PWS RIBBON            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF REMAINS               
FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL NEED TO ASSESS FOG/BR POTENTIAL BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE AS POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR SFC BDRY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT             
WINDS...MAY PROMOTE LOW VISIBILITIES.                                           
TOMORROW...LEANING WITH SREF SCENARIO WITH SUPPORT FROM EC/GFS.                 
THIS KEEPS POPS CONCENTRATED OVER NRN THIRD OF CWA WHERE DEEPER                 
LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY SFC                
BDRY. CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING AS BREAKS ARE LIKELY                       
PERIODICALLY IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON OVER SRN HALF              
OF CWA.                                                                         
EXTENDED...A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT MID LVL                    
DISTURBANCE SWEEPS INTO REGION SUNDAY MORNING.85H TEMPS DROP WITH               
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF SO TEMPS WILL COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUES. SLOW               
MODERATION THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY OFFSET ANY WARM            
ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO                                       
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED 15K-25K            
CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AT 5K-7K FEET.             
THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE LONGVILLE...TO GRAND                 
RAPIDS...TO BIGFORK AREA...AND OUT TOWARDS BEMIDJI AS OF 20Z. VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                           
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 15K FEET             
IN RAIN SHOWERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH              
THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...AND SO HAVE LEFT THE            
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT...THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...FROM KINL TO KHIB TO KDLH. HAVE             
MENTIONED SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS...WITH SOME FOG AND IFR/LIFR AT KHIB            
AND KHYR. TOMORROW...COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO                 
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THESE WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TIME FRAME.                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  45  64  41  58 /  40  20  20  50                                           
INL  41  62  38  57 /  30  30  40  50                                           
BRD  44  69  45  59 /  20  20  30  50                                           
HYR  42  67  43  62 /  20  20  20  50                                           
ASX  45  63  45  62 /  40  20  20  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
EOM/TL                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
513 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...MENTIONING PRECIPITATION                       
EVERYWHERE AND INTRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDER...AT LEAST THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER SAINT CROIX VALLEY WITH AN ACTIVE WARM              
FRONT ALONG THE INLAND COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND A                    
STRENGTHENING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE CASS LAKES AREA                    
EASTWARD TO JUST BELOW DULUTH AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SAINT CROIX               
RIVER HAS STIMULATED SMALLISH...SHALLOW BUT POTENT AND LONG LIVED               
SHOWERS DROPPING HALF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR ACROSS AT LEAST A                
DOZEN AREAS. WE DO NOT SEE LIGHTNING ATTM...BUT MIGHT SOON.                     
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT FASTER THAN AT THE SURFACE AS A               
DIGGING AND NEGATIVE-TILTED SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN TO SUPPORT THIS               
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEEPEENING NEGATIVELY-ORIENTED SURFACE LOW IS               
ALSO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER               
THE STRONGEST SHOWER AREAS. WE ARE STARTING WITH A RADICAL                      
MOISTENING OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST AND WILL BE LOOKING AT OTHER                   
PARAMETERS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC LOW NEAR PKD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELONGATED SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING NORTH TO BDE...AND SOUTH TOWARDS SAZ. MSAS INDICATES A               
WEAK SECONDARY PRESS FALL CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR RZN. THIS AGREES               
WELL WITH MDL FCST OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ELONGATING SE THIS                
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SE WISC             
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. PRECIP HAS BEEN MINIMAL            
AS FORCING IS WEAK. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING                     
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ENTERING SW CORNER OF CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE               
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. 4KM SPC NMM-WRF SIM REFL PRODUCT                
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS CLUSTER AND WORKS IT EAST THIS AFTERNOON                  
TOWARD TWIN PORTS....WEAKENING THE INTENSITY AS IT DOES. A CELL                 
DID PULSE TO 52DBZ AT 11K WITHIN PAST HR NEAR CASS LAKE BUT HAS                 
WEAKENED IN SUBSEQUENT SCANS. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS WE NEED 50DBZ               
CORES TO 16/17K TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HAIL. MARGINAL                      
PARAMETERS FOR SIG CONVECTION AS SFC/MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW                       
1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 35KTS IN BEST CAPE                     
VICINITY. HAVE LEFT ISO TRW IN FCST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO               
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR.                              
TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC PRESS TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN                 
ITASCA TO SAWYER COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL                 
CRAWL NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. PWS RIBBON            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF REMAINS               
FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL NEED TO ASSESS FOG/BR POTENTIAL BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE AS POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR SFC BDRY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT             
WINDS...MAY PROMOTE LOW VISIBILITIES.                                           
TOMORROW...LEANING WITH SREF SCENARIO WITH SUPPORT FROM EC/GFS.                 
THIS KEEPS POPS CONCENTRATED OVER NRN THIRD OF CWA WHERE DEEPER                 
LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY SFC                
BDRY. CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING AS BREAKS ARE LIKELY                       
PERIODICALLY IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON OVER SRN HALF              
OF CWA.                                                                         
EXTENDED...A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT MID LVL                    
DISTURBANCE SWEEPS INTO REGION SUNDAY MORNING.85H TEMPS DROP WITH               
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF SO TEMPS WILL COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUES. SLOW               
MODERATION THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY OFFSET ANY WARM            
ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO                                       
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED 15K-25K            
CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AT 5K-7K FEET.             
THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE LONGVILLE...TO GRAND                 
RAPIDS...TO BIGFORK AREA...AND OUT TOWARDS BEMIDJI AS OF 20Z. VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                           
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 15K FEET             
IN RAIN SHOWERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH              
THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...AND SO HAVE LEFT THE            
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT...THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...FROM KINL TO KHIB TO KDLH. HAVE             
MENTIONED SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS...WITH SOME FOG AND IFR/LIFR AT KHIB            
AND KHYR. TOMORROW...COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO                 
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THESE WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TIME FRAME.                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  47  70  47  60 /  40  20  10  50                                           
INL  46  66  40  60 /  30  30  40  40                                           
BRD  45  70  46  61 /  20  10  40  50                                           
HYR  45  69  43  64 /  40  10  10  50                                           
ASX  48  68  44  65 /  50  20  10  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
EOM/TL                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
238 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC LOW NEAR PKD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELONGATED SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING NORTH TO BDE...AND SOUTH TOWARDS SAZ. MSAS INDICATES A               
WEAK SECONDARY PRESS FALL CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR RZN. THIS AGREES               
WELL WITH MDL FCST OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ELONGATING SE THIS                
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SE WISC             
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. PRECIP HAS BEEN MINIMAL            
AS FORCING IS WEAK. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING                     
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ENTERING SW CORNER OF CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE               
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. 4KM SPC NMM-WRF SIM REFL PRODUCT                
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS CLUSTER AND WORKS IT EAST THIS AFTERNOON                  
TOWARD TWIN PORTS....WEAKENING THE INTENSITY AS IT DOES. A CELL                 
DID PULSE TO 52DBZ AT 11K WITHIN PAST HR NEAR CASS LAKE BUT HAS                 
WEAKENED IN SUBSEQUENT SCANS. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS WE NEED 50DBZ               
CORES TO 16/17K TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HAIL. MARGINAL                      
PARAMETERS FOR SIG CONVECTION AS SFC/MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW                       
1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 35KTS IN BEST CAPE                     
VICINITY. HAVE LEFT ISO TRW IN FCST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO               
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN INDICATED WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR.                              
TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC PRESS TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN                 
ITASCA TO SAWYER COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL                 
CRAWL NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. PWS RIBBON            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF REMAINS               
FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL NEED TO ASSESS FOG/BR POTENTIAL BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE AS POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR SFC BDRY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT             
WINDS...MAY PROMOTE LOW VISIBILITIES.                                           
TOMORROW...LEANING WITH SREF SCENARIO WITH SUPPORT FROM EC/GFS.                 
THIS KEEPS POPS CONCENTRATED OVER NRN THIRD OF CWA WHERE DEEPER                 
LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY SFC                
BDRY. CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING AS BREAKS ARE LIKELY                       
PERIODICALLY IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON OVER SRN HALF              
OF CWA.                                                                         
EXTENDED...A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT MID LVL                    
DISTURBANCE SWEEPS INTO REGION SUNDAY MORNING.85H TEMPS DROP WITH               
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF SO TEMPS WILL COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUES. SLOW               
MODERATION THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY OFFSET ANY WARM            
ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO                                       
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED 15K-25K            
CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AT 5K-7K FEET.             
THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE LONGVILLE...TO GRAND                 
RAPIDS...TO BIGFORK AREA...AND OUT TOWARDS BEMIDJI AS OF 20Z. VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                           
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 15K FEET             
IN RAIN SHOWERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH              
THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...AND SO HAVE LEFT THE            
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT...THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...FROM KINL TO KHIB TO KDLH. HAVE             
MENTIONED SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS...WITH SOME FOG AND IFR/LIFR AT KHIB            
AND KHYR. TOMORROW...COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO                 
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THESE WILL BE AFTER THE 18Z TIME FRAME.                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  47  70  47  60 /  20  20  10  50                                           
INL  46  66  40  60 /  20  30  40  40                                           
BRD  45  70  46  61 /  10  10  40  50                                           
HYR  45  69  43  64 /  30  10  10  50                                           
ASX  48  68  44  65 /  30  20  10  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/GSF/KD                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
937 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS PARTS OF                 
RANGE/SRN WI ZONES. ADDITIONALLY... SLOWER PROGRESSION OF                       
POPS/QPF/CLOUDS INTO NE ARROWHEAD AND ERN WI ZONES. LINEAR BAND OF              
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC/925 THETAE AXIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW.              
USING LATEST RUC13...THIS LOW LVL INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES VERY                   
SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH A TENDENCY TO STRENGTHEN OVER SCTRL WIS                
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER                 
THIS REGION LATER TODAY AS MDLS SUGGEST BEST 85H MSTR TRANSPORT                 
WILL PUSH INTO WISCONSIN. NAM40 FCST SBCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 500/1000       
J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35/40KTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC STATIONS REPORTING PATCHY FG THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT              
E TO SE WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH...CO-LOCATED WITH A POTENT SHORT             
WAVE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER NE NO DAK...PUSHES E INTO                 
WRN MN. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE VORT MAX/SFC LOW HAS BROUGHT SHRA                
TO NE NO DAK/NW MN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY NEAR             
BJI LIFTING NORTH AND EAST.                                                     
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE KEPT RUN TO RUN                
CONTINUITY. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWRD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION       
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND                  
OVER THE IRON RANGE AND INTO ADJACENT SRN CANADA...WITH WEAKER                  
FORCING IN THE SRN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN               
TIER OF COUNTIES TODAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST. QPF               
AMOUNTS WILL BE SCT AND GENERALLY LIGHT...RANGING FROM A FEW                    
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH. KEPT ISOLD TSRA WORDING THIS AFTRN.               
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH A FEW                 
HUNDRED J OF CAPE DEVELOP THIS AFTN TO SUPPORT ISOLD -TSRA THIS                 
AFTN...REMAINING WELL BLW SVR LVLS.                                             
THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE BROAD UPR LVL            
TROUGH THROUGH SAT. KEPT THE 20-30 POP FOR SHRA THROUGH THIS TIME               
FRAME. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL                    
TROUGH OVER MN AND THE WRN GREAT LKS REGION LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH              
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THE CHC FOR SHRA.                                     
AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WHILE         
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...SOME TEMPO MVFR-IFR CEILINGS            
MAY OCCUR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MOST             
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR                   
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KINL...WHERE THE BEST                 
OMEGA AND VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE FOUND. SOME THUNDER IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER                    
14Z...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS            
ARE WEAK. WITH A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE NORTH...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL            
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY AT                         
KDLH...THROUGH MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR-VLIFR                      
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH            
ABOUT 14Z TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN IN THESE AREAS...AND FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE MORNING            
HOURS. AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE OF A BROAD                       
TROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LESSEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES             
EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR KHYR THIS AFTERNOON.            
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN ALL AREAS AFTER 00Z...WITH JUST SOME                 
REMNANT SCATTERED CLOUDS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  64  47  71  47 /  30  20  30  30                                           
INL  64  46  67  40 /  70  20  30  40                                           
BRD  65  45  68  46 /  20  10  20  40                                           
HYR  68  45  70  43 /  20  30  20  30                                           
ASX  65  48  69  44 /  20  30  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE.                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONGOING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK.  THE ONLY CHANGE            
THAT MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE GRIDS REGARDS SKY COVER.  ISENTROPIC              
DOWNGLIDE WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUD              
COVER FROM THE WEST.  EVENTUALLY THIS DOWNGLIDE OCCURS ACROSS MOST              
OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE RUC.  THEREFORE FULL SKY           
COVERAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE.  WILL             
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES WITHIN THE GRIDS.                               
WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL.  CAN NOT RULE OUT DENSE FOG                 
DEVELOPING AS SKIES CLEAR.  VERY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A             
DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT.                
THE GREATEST RISK AREA FOR DENSE FOG INITIALLY...WILL OCCUR OVER                
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.                                  
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WITHIN THE AVIATION FORECASTS                    
REGARDED CEILING HEIGHTS AND POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT.  CEILINGS OVER            
THE SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY                 
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY CLEAR OUT SOMETIME AFTER 12Z.                    
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ADVECTING IN FROM EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD              
ELIMINATE CLOUD COVER AT JOPLIN.  HOWEVER...ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...FOG          
WILL DEVELOP AS WIND SPEEDS BECOME LIGHT...ELIMINATING ANY BOUNDARY             
LAYER MIXING THAT MIGHT EXIST.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...VISIBILITIES              
ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS FORT SCOTT HAS             
FELL TO 1/2 OF A MILE.  MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ENHANCE FOG             
DEVELOPMENT WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL WELL BELOW THE            
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE.                                                         
WILL MONITOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND            
ISSUE UPDATED TAFS WHEN NEEDED.                                                 
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
943 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                   
ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO FOR END OF PATCHY              
FOG. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WITH                
CLOUDS NUDGING TOWARD EASTERN MONTANA. AIRMASS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS               
YESTERDAY SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THAN              
YESTERDAY. ALSO MORE SUNSHINE...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER                       
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. EBERT                                                     
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE                
PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGING OFF THE W                         
COAST...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST. NE MT IS ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF TROUGH IN NW FLOW...WITH THE JETSTREAM REMAINING STRONGER AND                
FARTHER S THAN USUAL FOR EARLY SEP.                                             
THIS MORN...SOME LOCATIONS SHOW OBS THAT ARE NEARLY SATURATED.                  
THIS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. RUC SHOWS 95 PCT RH ACROSS           
ROUGHLY OUR NE QUARTER AT 12Z. WILL COMBINE THIS WITH THE OBS THAT              
HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 0-2F AT 3 AM TO ADD               
PATCHY EARLY MORN FOG MENTION. THIS WILL BE IN LOWER                            
MILK...MISSOURI...AND BIG MUDDY RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...                     
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORN...BUT IR SATELLITE CHANNEL                
SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL OVERCAST IN AB AND NC/NW                 
MT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR N THIS MORN. NO PRECIP EXPECTED               
FROM IT. OTHERWISE MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREES WARMING               
OVER YESTERDAY. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE               
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT                     
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A                 
FEW WEAK CELLS...MAINLY E. WILL GO WITH POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY               
WON`T SHOW AS WORDING IN TEXT PRODUCTS.                                         
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A MODERATE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW ACROSS                
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALL MODELS SHOW            
A FAIR AREA OF QPF. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T APPEAR ALL THAT WELL                     
ORGANIZED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT KEEPING               
IN MIND ALSO THAT TYPICALLY THESE SYSTEMS FROM THE NW ARE OFTEN                 
UNDERFORECAST FOR POPS. WITH 850 MB WINDS TO 20KT OR SO WITH WEAK               
COOL ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA SAT.                                                                   
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR N SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 543              
DM AND 850 TEMPS TO 5C. THIS IS AT LEAST AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS FEW             
COOL NIGHTS. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER AREA AND DEW POINTS LOWER THAN              
LATELY...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD 30S FOR LOWS...SOME TO AROUND                  
FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLDEST POCKETS. MEANWHILE.. INCREASING                 
CLOUDS IN OUR S. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON INTENSITY...BUT ALL                 
HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVE SE ALONG THE JETSTREAM THRU THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THESE OFTEN DO AFFECT OUR                     
SW...BUT SELDOM ELSEWHERE AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES. WILL GO WITH A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN SUN IN OUR SW. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS ALL               
AREAS SUN AS WELL. SIMONSEN                                                     
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF               
THE TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING                 
TREND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE                 
ON TUESDAY.                                                                     
MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFERENCES ON TRACKING A MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH         
AND COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS...00Z CANADIAN AND 12Z ECMWF HAD THE FRONT              
AND SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF               
HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE HAD THE MAIN                
PART OF THE WAVE AFFECTING NE MONTANA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR                       
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR                
SEVERAL RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN A WED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MENTION A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AND SHOWERS WED NIGHT.                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS WITH                   
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.                 
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 4K OR 5K FT AGL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON                
INTO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE AROUND 10 KT TODAY.                  
LOOK FOR EITHER MID LEVEL OR LOW VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.              
FRANSEN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
406 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH                 
UPPER RIDGING OFF THE W COAST...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE                        
MIDWEST. NE MT IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH IN NW FLOW...WITH THE               
JETSTREAM REMAINING STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN USUAL FOR EARLY                 
SEP.                                                                            
THIS MORN...SOME LOCATIONS SHOW OBS THAT ARE NEARLY SATURATED.                  
THIS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. RUC SHOWS 95 PCT RH ACROSS           
ROUGHLY OUR NE QUARTER AT 12Z. WILL COMBINE THIS WITH THE OBS THAT              
HAVE BEEN REPORTING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 0-2F AT 3 AM TO ADD               
PATCHY EARLY MORN FOG MENTION. THIS WILL BE IN LOWER                            
MILK...MISSOURI...AND BIG MUDDY RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...                     
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORN...BUT IR SATELLITE CHANNEL                
SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL OVERCAST IN AB AND NC/NW                 
MT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR N THIS MORN. NO PRECIP EXPECTED               
FROM IT. OTHERWISE MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREES WARMING               
OVER YESTERDAY. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE               
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT                     
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A                 
FEW WEAK CELLS...MAINLY E. WILL GO WITH POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY               
WON`T SHOW AS WORDING IN TEXT PRODUCTS.                                         
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A MODERATE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW ACROSS                
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALL MODELS SHOW            
A FAIR AREA OF QPF. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T APPEAR ALL THAT WELL                     
ORGANIZED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT KEEPING               
IN MIND ALSO THAT TYPICALLY THESE SYSTEMS FROM THE NW ARE OFTEN                 
UNDERFORECAST FOR POPS. WITH 850 MB WINDS TO 20KT OR SO WITH WEAK               
COOL ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA SAT.                                                                   
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR N SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 543              
DM AND 850 TEMPS TO 5C. THIS IS AT LEAST AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS FEW             
COOL NIGHTS. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER AREA AND DEW POINTS LOWER THAN              
LATELY...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD 30S FOR LOWS...SOME TO AROUND                  
FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLDEST POCKETS. MEANWHILE.. INCREASING                 
CLOUDS IN OUR S. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON INTENSITY...BUT ALL                 
HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVE SE ALONG THE JETSTREAM THRU THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THESE OFTEN DO AFFECT OUR                     
SW...BUT SELDOM ELSEWHERE AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES. WILL GO WITH A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN SUN IN OUR SW. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS ALL               
AREAS SUN AS WELL. SIMONSEN                                                     
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF               
THE TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING                 
TREND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE                 
ON TUESDAY.                                                                     
MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFERENCES ON TRACKING A MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH         
AND COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS...00Z CANADIAN AND 12Z ECMWF HAD THE FRONT              
AND SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF               
HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE HAD THE MAIN                
PART OF THE WAVE AFFECTING NE MONTANA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR                       
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR                
SEVERAL RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN A WED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MENTION A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AND SHOWERS WED NIGHT.                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS WITH                   
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME TODAY AND               
TONIGHT. FOG REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING...WITH THE               
MOST LIKELY SITES BEING KOLF AND KSDY. BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 4K OR              
5K FT AGL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST              
WIND WILL BE AROUND 10 KT TODAY. LOOK FOR EITHER MID LEVEL OR LOW               
VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
837 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE ISSED AN UPDATED MAINLY TO PRECIP TRENDS ACROSS THE CWA. AREA              
OF MORE INTENSE SHRA WAS ONGOING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80                         
CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE SHRA HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED OUT OF THE                 
CWA. INCREASED POPS THROUGH 06Z ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BAND OF                      
SHRA...BUT TONED DOWN ELSEWHERE TO JUST ISO MENTION AND DROPPED                 
THE POPS AFTER 06Z IN THE NRN CWA. HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR              
TWO W OF KLNK WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT OUT OF              
GRIDS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.                             
OTHERWISE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS PATCHY FOG                 
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH WEAK WINDS AND LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT              
SPREADS.                                                                        
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP ALREADY SENT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER              
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP...TEMPS...FOG.                            
LATEST RUC HAS ONE SEGMENT OF A STG JET EXITING THE AREA...WITH                 
ANOTHER 115+KT JET DIVING INTO MT/WY/CO. THIS JET WILL KEEP THINGS              
MOVING AND COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS           
PRODUCED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSRA ACRS THE STATE. SOME LINGERING                
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT THE BETTER CHC FOR                
PRECIP TO REMAIN TO OUR N OR SOUTH. WILL ASSESS OVERNIGHT POPS                  
BEFORE SENDING OUT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE SOME SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS               
EVENING...THEN TRIM BACK TO A SLIGHT CHC LATER TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT              
WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO RE-DEVELOP. CLDS              
WILL COMPLICATE THE FACT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN                     
FAVORABLE LOW LYING AREAS AND WHERE HIGHER CLDS THIN. THINK THERE               
WILL BE MORE CLDS AROUND NORTHEAST ZONES...THUS WILL HIT THE FOG                
HARDER CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.             
AM COUNTING ON A BREAK IN THE PRECIP SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS                  
STILL A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION AND LEFT AN ISOLATED                 
SHOWER FOR NE NEB INTO WRN IA. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COOL WITH              
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.                                                  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TROF ENERGY IN WRN CANADA WILL MOVE                  
INTO MT/WY SUN AND ACRS THE PLAINS MON. LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL                 
FORCING COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS AND              
A SECOND AREA IN WY/NW NEB SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONVERGE TO DEVELOP               
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FM NEB INTO IA MON. CONTINUE TO BOOST                  
POPS TO THE LIKELY AND ABOVE CATEGORY FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF              
THIS FRONT MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS GREATEST FM KS INTO MO AND               
IL...AND THIS IS WHERE THE DAY3 OUTLOOKS HAS A PROB. FOR SVR.                   
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOOKED AT HAIL POTENTIAL.               
LOW FREEZING LEVELS MOVE IN MON...BUT APPEARS BEST DEEP MOISTURE                
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT CAN BE FULLY UTILIZED. THE MID                   
LEVEL TROF SHIFTS TO THE EAST SPREADING THE PRECIP EAST INTO THE                
GRTLKS MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY WITH                 
HIGHS IN THE 70S.                                                               
THE EXTENDED FCST TUE NIGHT THRU SAT IS LOOKING MORE SEASONABLE.                
A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TUES              
NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING JET AND WAA OVERNIGHT AND WED...THEN MOVE            
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THUR. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH IT/S PASSAGE THRU THU MORNING. KEPT                 
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S WED WITH WRMR SW                        
FLOW...ALTHOUGH CLDS AND PRECIP WOULD HINDER HIGHS. WENT BELOW                  
GUID THU BEHIND THE FNT...BUT STILL LEFT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH                  
DECREASING CLDS.                                                                
THE PATTERN IS MOSTLY DRY FRI THRU SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRES                 
OVR THE REGION FRI AND WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE NRN PLAINS              
INTO WRN NEB SAT. HURRICANE IKE IS STILL FCST TO MOVE INTO THE                  
GULF THRU THE EXTENDED. SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON IT/S TRACK AND WHERE                
THE REMNANTS GO...BUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO NOT MAKE IT INTO                
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED FM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 07/18Z.                                
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ACROSS KOMA/KOFK/AND KLNK SITES            
THRU 02-03Z.  WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THIS             
EVENING. BR IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT               
KOMA BEING 3/4 OF A MILE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1-3 MILES AT KOFK             
AND KLNK. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER               
15Z SUNDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
200 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER              
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP...TEMPS...FOG.                            
LATEST RUC HAS ONE SEGMENT OF A STG JET EXITING THE AREA...WITH                 
ANOTHER 115+KT JET DIVING INTO MT/WY/CO. THIS JET WILL KEEP THINGS              
MOVING AND COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS           
PRODUCED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSRA ACRS THE STATE. SOME LINGERING                
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT THE BETTER CHC FOR                
PRECIP TO REMAIN TO OUR N OR SOUTH. WILL ASSESS OVERNIGHT POPS                  
BEFORE SENDING OUT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE SOME SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS               
EVENING...THEN TRIM BACK TO A SLIGHT CHC LATER TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT              
WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO RE-DEVELOP. CLDS              
WILL COMPLICATE THE FACT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN                     
FAVORABLE LOW LYING AREAS AND WHERE HIGHER CLDS THIN. THINK THERE               
WILL BE MORE CLDS AROUND NORTHEAST ZONES...THUS WILL HIT THE FOG                
HARDER CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.             
AM COUNTING ON A BREAK IN THE PRECIP SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS                  
STILL A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION AND LEFT AN ISOLATED                 
SHOWER FOR NE NEB INTO WRN IA. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COOL WITH              
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.                                                  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TROF ENERGY IN WRN CANADA WILL MOVE                  
INTO MT/WY SUN AND ACRS THE PLAINS MON. LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL                 
FORCING COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS AND              
A SECOND AREA IN WY/NW NEB SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONVERGE TO DEVELOP               
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FM NEB INTO IA MON. CONTINUE TO BOOST                  
POPS TO THE LIKELY AND ABOVE CATEGORY FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF              
THIS FRONT MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS GREATEST FM KS INTO MO AND               
IL...AND THIS IS WHERE THE DAY3 OUTLOOKS HAS A PROB. FOR SVR.                   
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOOKED AT HAIL POTENTIAL.               
LOW FREEZING LEVELS MOVE IN MON...BUT APPEARS BEST DEEP MOISTURE                
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT CAN BE FULLY UTILIZED. THE MID                   
LEVEL TROF SHIFTS TO THE EAST SPREADING THE PRECIP EAST INTO THE                
GRTLKS MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY WITH                 
HIGHS IN THE 70S.                                                               
THE EXTENDED FCST TUE NIGHT THRU SAT IS LOOKING MORE SEASONABLE.                
A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TUES              
NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING JET AND WAA OVERNIGHT AND WED...THEN MOVE            
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THUR. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH IT/S PASSAGE THRU THU MORNING. KEPT                 
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S WED WITH WRMR SW                        
FLOW...ALTHOUGH CLDS AND PRECIP WOULD HINDER HIGHS. WENT BELOW                  
GUID THU BEHIND THE FNT...BUT STILL LEFT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH                  
DECREASING CLDS.                                                                
THE PATTERN IS MOSTLY DRY FRI THRU SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRES                 
OVR THE REGION FRI AND WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE NRN PLAINS              
INTO WRN NEB SAT. HURRICANE IKE IS STILL FCST TO MOVE INTO THE                  
GULF THRU THE EXTENDED. SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON IT/S TRACK AND WHERE                
THE REMNANTS GO...BUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO NOT MAKE IT INTO                
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED FM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK. VALID THRU 07/18Z.                                
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ACROSS KOMA/KOFK/AND KLNK SITES            
THRU 02-03Z.  WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THIS             
EVENING. BR IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT               
KOMA BEING 3/4 OF A MILE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE 1-3 MILES AT KOFK             
AND KLNK. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER               
15Z SUNDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/SMITH                                                                 
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY.                
HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS              
OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED                
TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER                
WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...                                                            
TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER                 
AND IS STILL HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF                  
HANNA WILL CONTINUE HEADING NORTH...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE                
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO HEAD NORTHEAST. EITHER WAY...A BIG AREA OF                  
RAIN IS MVG INTO S-CNTRL AND SEPA AND IS HEADING UP INTO NEPA.                  
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHUD MV IN WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MODELS STILL HVG               
TROUBLE WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN WITH THE 06Z NAM INDICATING VRY                  
LITTLE QPF THIS FAR NORTH ALREADY. THE GFS IS ALSO NOT CATCHING                 
ONTO THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD.                                   
LATEST RUC HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN WITH IT LOCATED JUST                
SOUTH OF CWA AT 14Z. IN TURN IT IS ALSO FURTHER WEST THAN THE                   
OTHER MODELS INDICATE AND GIVES MORE RAIN TO SERN ZONES. IN                     
RECOGNITION OF THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IS TO THE NORTH AND               
WEST OF THE CENTER AS EXPECTED AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO MV N-NE               
WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS IS. THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT                
OF 1 INCH TO 5 INCHES AND THIS CUD FALL ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CWA               
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE ONE FOR OUR SERN ZONES. FEELING IS               
THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE SRN PART OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY              
SEE HVY RAIN BFR THE DAY IS OUT WITH FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED...           
AS FOR THE WINDS...HIGHEST GUSTS HV BEEN CONFINED ALONG THE                     
COAST...IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTER. KLWX VAD WIND PROFILES                  
INDICATE ONLY 25-30KTS OFF THE SFC. THUS...WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS              
WITH GUSTY WINDS MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR THE POCONOS BUT NO WIND               
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. RUC H8 WINDS ONLY FCST TO BE ARND                      
20-25KTS AT 2KFT. IT WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT                     
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THERE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS FROM                  
WINDS THIS AFTN.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
FIRST WEST TO EAST AREA OF RAIN IS LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM.                
THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF HANNA AND THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED               
THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS FIRST BATCH SHOULD BE HANDLED EASILY EVEN               
WITH AN AREA OF 1 INCH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN THE CATSKILLS.               
IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE PAST WEEK WITH 1 HOUR FFG OVER 2 INCHES.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREA. MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE                 
HEAVY RAIN AXIS BACK TO THE EAST. ONLY PIKE AND SULLIVAN ARE                    
FORECASTED TO GET BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES. DO NOT WANT              
TO CHANGE AGAIN SINCE ANOTHER SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE.               
VERY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN LESS THAN 1 INCH AND OVER 3 INCHES.                 
WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WITH WARM                  
CLOUD DEPTHS TO 14K FT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH AN HOUR.              
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UL JET WILL ALSO HELP WITH DEEP LIFT. MODELS IN              
AGREEMENT OF PLACEMENT OF SW TO NE HEAVY RAIN AXIS ALONG SE CWA                 
BORDER. WITH THE DRY GROUND DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN SO FAR THIS                 
MONTH ANY FLOODING WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ON. RIVERS ARE AT                     
SEASONALLY LOW VALUES. IT WILL TAKE OVER 3 INCHES FOR EVEN THE                  
HEADWATERS TO FLOOD. BIGGEST FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING                
OF CREEKS...SMALLER STREAMS...AND URBAN AREAS. THE MAIN STEM OF                 
THE DELAWARE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW                  
FLOOD STAGE. THE NYC RESERVOIRS WILL HOLD ALL THE RAIN.                         
WITH HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME OF THE BEST LL JET DO NOT SEE MUCH                  
WIDESPREAD DOWNWARD TRANSLATION. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE POCONOS              
CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF HANNA COULD SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S                 
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 00Z. STORM TRACK WILL BE EAST OF CWA WITH               
FORWARD ACCELERATION. HIGHER WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING ONTO               
THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM THIS FAR INLAND.                                     
PCPN SHUD CLR OUT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...LVG CLRNG                  
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                   
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT                
BUT LITTLE FORCING GETS INTO THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY. HAVE CHC POPS               
MOSTLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. A SFC WAVE COULD FORM AS A                   
STRONG VORT WAVES MOVES EAST WITH A UL TROF.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING IN THE EAST AS COLD FRONT                 
EXITS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS AS                
SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THEN                     
INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES EAST.              
LOOKS LIKE WE THEN DRY OUT AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH                  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.                                                    
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BEHIND THE FRONT                     
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE LOOK TO BE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR                 
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
STEADY RAIN FROM HANNA MAINLY FROM AN AVP TO BGM LINE                           
SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN. TO               
THE WEST OF THERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR                
CEILINGS. THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO                 
EARLY EVENING BEFORE PULLING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME              
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH LIGHT FOG THRU THE EVENING                
AFTER PRECIP ENDS BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.                         
MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTN BECOMING N/NW                 
TWD LATE AFTN/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                            
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SUNDAY TO MONDAY...VFR. SOME EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN FOG                  
MOST LIKELY AT ELM. OTHER LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO MVFR VSBYS DUE                
TO WET GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                     
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NEXT FRONT APPCHS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH              
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER ALONG BNDRY                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...VFR. RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN MORNING FOG                   
ESPECIALLY AT ELMIRA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
THANKS TO A TREMENDOUSLY DEDICATED TEAM OF ELECTRONICS EXPERTS                  
WORKING LONG HOURS...THE KBGM WSR- 88D BEGAN SPINNING AGAIN AROUND              
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS DONE IN RECORD TIME OF JUST UNDER FOUR            
DAYS WITH A TROPICAL STORM LOOMING.                                             
ALL USERS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION WHEN USING PCPN PRODUCTS...AS                
IT WILL NOT CAPTURE THE STORM TOTAL PCPN AFTER BEING DOWN FOR                   
SEVERAL HRS THIS MRNG. PLEASE REFER TO SURROUNDING RADARS                       
(KENX...KTYX...KBUF...KDIX...KOKX AND KCCX) FOR THE MOST UP TO                  
DATE IMAGES AND ESTIMATED PCPN AMOUNTS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-             
     048-072.                                                                   
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVB/TAC                                                             
SHORT TERM...PVB/TAC                                                            
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...JML                                                                  
EQUIPMENT...                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
751 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A              
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND STALL OUT TO              
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HANNA CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTH                  
NORTHEAST WELL OUT OF OUR LOCAL AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING                
BRUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH.               
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SURFACE TOWARD MORNING.                
HAVE SEEM SOME CU DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS NC COUNTIES. EXPECT TO              
SEE SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY            
WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL FROM HANNA AND WHERE CLOUDS WERE SLOWER             
TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DECREASING W TO SW            
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H30. RUC AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED            
CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES OF PCP WATER THIS MORNING DECREASING TO AROUND 2            
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE DOWN TO LESS THAN             
1.5 INCHES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR              
IN THE  SUBSIDENCE BEHIND HANNA. TEMPS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 70             
DEGREES TONIGHT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH             
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO                
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL DEVELOP VIA UPPER LEVEL                       
CONVERGENCE IN THE MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST                   
MONDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                        
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...BACK TO THE SUMMER GRIND WITH HOT AND HUMID              
CONDITIONS AND THE STANDARD CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA                  
BREEZE. WILL ONLY USE SLIGHT CHANCE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE              
WATERS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH AROUND 1.60 INCHES BOTH DAYS.             
SPEAKING OF GETTING BACK TO THE SAME OLD ROUTINE...THE MAV NUMBERS              
ARE IN MID SEASON FORM SHOWING THE WARM BIAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHEN             
COMPARING GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                 
HIGHS AND A BLEND FOR LOWS. STILL LOOKING AT READINGS THREE TO FIVE             
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS                 
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TUES WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE             
NW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. SOUTHEAST            
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND PW              
SHOULD RISE TO ABOUT 2.0 INCHES WHILE IKE KEEPS GOMEX MOISTURE FROM             
ADVECTING NORTHWARD. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WARRANT LOW            
CHC POPS AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S               
INLAND. BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA                    
WED...SHAVING ABOUT A CATEGORY OFF OF HIGH TEMPS. THE H8 RIDGE AXIS             
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD                  
CONTINUE AT THIS LEVEL POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP.             
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 40-ISH POPS...A BIT BELOW THE 60S THAT GFS IS            
SHOWING. EXACT POSITION/SIZE/STRENGTH OF IKE LIKELY COULD BE A                  
PLAYER AS GFS IS SHOWING ENHANCED LL FLOW LOCALLY AS A RESULT OF THE            
STORM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND                        
SATURDAY...PROBABLY IN A WEAKENING STATE. VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS              
STILL SEEM WARRANTED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AIRMASS            
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. GRANTED...SOME GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK IN THE GFS             
HAS MADE THIS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE FOR CERTAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT             
MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY              
TO BE INTERACTED WITH BY IKE SOON THEREAFTER.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /0Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. I ADDED A TEMPO GROUP             
FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AT THE INLAND COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT                
WINDS...AND MOIST SOILS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.              
MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 08Z A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR AT             
LBT AND FLO. VFR EXPECTED AFTER 13Z WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.                 
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY AND            
BECOME A BIT BREEZY.                                                            
OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE IFR VISIBILITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY             
MORNINGS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED                  
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH WITH             
AN OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOLDS FOR ALL              
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN. THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH DOWN THE SEAS                 
WHICH WERE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 5 TO 9 FT ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.            
THIS SEEMS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH LATEST WNA MODEL DATA WHICH SHOWS             
SEAS DECREASING TO UNDER SCA CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN               
WATERS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. THEREFORE ADJUSTED            
HAZARD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.                                                       
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                               
NIGHT/...AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A VERY WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED                   
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A BETTER DEFINED               
EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE                
MID ATLANTIC AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BACK FROM A                  
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY TO EASTERLY MONDAY. MAGNITUDES WILL                  
REMAIN WEAK...MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE              
CUSP OF FLAG CRITERIA AS THE SWELL FROM IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE                   
ACROSS. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OUTER WATERS...WITH FIVE                           
FEET...GETTING WORKED OVER TO 3-4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE.                         
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LONG              
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A 3 TO 4 FT WIND WAVE                 
ALONG WITH SOME 4 FT SWELLS FROM IKE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH                
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A VEER TO                     
OFFSHORE BY WED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY CLOSE TO OR JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SO THERES A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE                       
FORECAST...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS THROUGH THE PD. NOW IT                  
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND                  
FAIRLY LIGHT...THE ABATING IKE SWELLS WILL STILL BE PRESENT                     
HOWEVER.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
SOME LEFTOVER SWELL FROM HANNA ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY LONG                  
PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP                
CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE VERSION OF WAVEWATCH SHOWS TWO                
DISTINCT SWELLS FROM HANNA...BOTH OVER 11 SECONDS FOR THE PERIOD.               
WHILE THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AT ALL AREA BEACHES...THE             
HIGHEST RISK WILL BE FOR THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER                  
COUNTIES IN NC...AND THE BEACHES OF GEORGETOWN AND SOUTHERN HORRY               
COUNTIES IN SC DUE TO THE SWELL DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.                   
SWELLS FROM IKE WILL KEEP AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS                  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
AMZ254-     256.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...MBB                                                                 
AVIATION...MRR/HEDEN                                                            
RIP CURRENTS...HEDEN                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
856 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WE WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHT/S FCST...MAINLY TO               
TIDY UP POPS AND SKY NOW THAT OBS MAKE IT MORE OBVIOUS THAT MUCH                
OF THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY-INDUCED AND THUS WILL NOT SURVIVE                
THE NIGHT. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE BATCH OF -SHRA NOW               
ENTERING SE ND...WHICH SHOULD LAST LONGER /DESPITE ITS CONVECTIVE               
ORIGINS/ GIVEN MODERATE 500-300 HPA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER THE                
18Z NAM/GFS. OUR CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THIS UPWARD MOTION INTO                
NW MN 05-09Z. MODIFYING SFC TEMPS ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR RAOBS                      
SUGGEST THAT ONCE WE FALL INTO THE MID 50S F /AS MOST SITES ARE                 
NOW/ THE BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THUNDER SO THIS WILL                 
ALSO BE DROPPED FROM THE DATABASE. FURTHER UPSTREAM...SATELLITE                 
SHOWS A CELLULAR NATURE TO MOST CLOUDS WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST                  
PARTIAL CLEARING SHIFTING SE INTO EASTERN ND JUST AS THE 00Z RUC                
SHOWS. THIS WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY LOW/MID LVL CAA...WHICH DROPS              
850-HPA TEMPS DOWN TO +2 C IN THE NW FA BY 12Z. NOT AN IDEAL                    
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION...BUT EVEN THIS MORNING LANGDON WAS               
DOWN TO 38 F...SO WE WILL LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 3 F THERE. THE 18Z NAM              
ACTUALLY DROPS THAT AREA TO 35 F.                                               
ONE OTHER ISSUE MAY AGAIN BE PATCHY FOG OR AT LEAST LOWER                       
CIGS...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED TDY...AND IN NW MN WHERE MOST                 
12/18Z MODELS AND THE 00Z RUC ALL DEVELOP IFR CIGS 09-12Z. WE WILL              
NOT ADD ANY FOG AT THIS POINT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE                
ON.                                                                             
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE EAST AT 20KTS INTO NW MN THRU 06Z...                  
THOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST NOW THAT THE SUN              
HAS SET. MARGINAL MVFR CIGS/VIS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. THE              
LOW CONFIDENCE PART OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS 08-13Z WHEN IFR OR              
LOWER CIGS /OR VIS/ ARE POSSIBLE. THIS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO                    
MORNINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL AGAIN...AT LEAST AT                
KTVF/KBJI. THIS IS HINTED AT IN THE PRESENT TAF SET...BUT UNTIL                 
CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST            
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN NE MB WITH            
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS E MB TO ALONG A ROX TO DTL LINE. WHEN            
COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT               
FOR THE SHORT TERM...SO ENDED UP USING MODEL COMPROMISE FOR THE                 
FORECAST. BLENDED THE GFS AND NAM FOR POPS AS THEY DIFFER ON WHAT               
PART OF THE CWFA WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S TROF PASSAGE. AS            
FAR AS TEMPS...WITH ADJMAVBC STILL DOING PRETTY WELL...USED IT AS               
A STARTING POINT AND THEN ADJUSTED FROM THERE.                                  
KMVX CURRENTLY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE IN THE E AND                 
ANOTHER IN THE W. E PCPN IS AHEAD AND ALONG OF SURFACE FRONT AND W              
PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH PUSH OF NEXT WAVE AS SEEN ON WV IN                      
ASSOCIATION WITH THE 500MB TROF. 500MB TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH            
THE N PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUN...SO KEPT PCPN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS             
DO KEEP SHOWALTERS AT OR BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL 06Z            
TONIGHT. WITH OCCASIONAL LTG FOUND IN STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...             
KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THIS EVENING AND TRANSITIONED TO SHRA               
AFTER 06Z.                                                                      
FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE                    
WEATHER...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THERE IS A ANOTHER 500MB                    
TROF THAT MOVES THROUGH ON MON NIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL UVV AT                  
700MB...850MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INDICATED AND ALSO STABILITY                  
INDICES ABOVE ZERO...BELIEVE THAT WILL ONLY SEE CLOUDS FROM THIS                
TROF PASSAGE AT THIS TIME.                                                      
LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH SAT)...                                                  
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING                 
OF NEXT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE. 00 UTC CANADIAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF                    
SOLUTIONS BRIEFLY CUT-OFF WEAK 500 HPA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL                     
ROCKIES THU MORNING BEFORE EJECTING PRIMARY ENERGY EASTWARD...WHEREAS           
GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. CURRENT FORECAST                     
PRIMARILY FOLLOWS HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH FAVORED FASTER GFS. MODEL                
CONSENSUS SHOWS BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WED AND                
THU OUT AHEAD OF PRIMARY MID-LEVEL WAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME                    
FRAME MAY BE PUSHED LATER OR EXTENDED IF SLOWER CANADIAN/ECMWF                  
SOLUTIONS BECOME REALITY. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE               
TO TREND BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/NG/ROGERS                                                               
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1046 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SHOW               
AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING/VEERING               
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR DEMISE. HAVE                   
TRIMMED BACK MORNING POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS                
MOST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A RESULT. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON APPEARS SLIM AS A STOUT CAP LOOKS              
TO BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY LEFT BY MORNING STORMS.              
14Z RUC DOES INDICATE IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN CAP ACROSS                      
OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE LOW PROBABILITY             
OF POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL AS                    
LINGERING IMPACT FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. ENOUGH BREAKS              
IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET REASONABLY CLOSE TO FORECAST                
HIGHS SO WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                    
ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AT KFYV WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z. A COMPLEX              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO               
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KTUL AND              
KRVS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE                    
PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES KXNA AND KFYV.                     
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT                   
TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS                
TAF SITES AFTER 05Z.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
INITIAL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH WIDE BODIED TROUGH                                
WILL BRING THUNDER..AND SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TIER                                
OF ZONES NORTHEAST OK EARLY THIS MORNING.  LOOKS                                
AS IF CITY OF TULSA WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE                                
OF THAT ACTION.   MARGINAL POPS RETAINED FOR THE                                
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  AN INSTANT REPLAY POSSIBILITY                                
AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF                                
THUNDER AGAIN NEAR / ON OKLAHOMA / KANSAS BORDER.                               
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY  BEST LIFT NORTH WHEN H5                                
MB FLOW BACKS SOME. STILL LOW POPS NORTHERN TIER                                
ZONES. NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES COOL FRONT BOUNDARY                                
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MORE CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH                                
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                       
BOTH..ECMWF / GFS BRING TROPICAL MISERY INTO THE                                
THE GULF BY MIDWEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   80  64  84  66 /  40  40  10  10                                          
FSM   84  62  88  65 /  10  20  10  10                                          
MLC   85  65  89  67 /  10  10   0   0                                          
BVO   75  61  82  64 /  70  60  20  30                                          
FYV   78  60  83  62 /  20  30  20  10                                          
BYV   76  61  81  61 /  20  40  30  10                                          
MKO   82  63  86  66 /  10  30  20  10                                          
MIO   76  61  81  64 /  70  60  20  30                                          
F10   83  64  87  67 /  10  20  10  10                                          
HHW   88  64  90  68 /  10  10   0  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...14                                                                 
LONG TERM....07                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
344 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST                   
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL                         
PENNSYLVANIA. HEAVY RAIN FROM HANNA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO                       
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEYS. A RETURN TO                  
DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE               
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...                                        
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DEAL WITH TODAY. THE FIRST IS OCCURRING                
WELL OUT AHEAD OF HANNA WHICH MOVES ONSHORE NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC A              
FEW HOURS AGO...AND THIS RAIN EXTENDS IN A BAND FROM THE WV                     
PANHANDLE TO THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.                   
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND MESOSCALE MODELS PIVOT THIS BAND                        
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM A SW-NE ORIENTATION TO MORE OF A NNE                
TO SSW FASHION...WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN               
THESE AREAS BY UP TO .25". MOST OF THIS INITIAL RAIN IS LIGHT HOWEVER...        
AND CERTAINLY WELCOME ANYWHERE IT FALLS GIVEN THE RECENT EXTENDED               
DRY SPELL.                                                                      
TRACK OF HANNA STILL EXPECTED UP THE NEW JERSEY COAST...CONFINING               
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A TIGHT                     
GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CHANGED QPF VERY                    
LITTLE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE AMOUNTS BY .05 TO .15" OVER CENTRAL/              
WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH THE INITIAL "PRE" RAINFALL ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE INVERTED SFC TROF AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF HANNA`S              
CIRCULATION. PREVIOUS QPF OVERALL CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH AMOUNTS              
IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE OVER SERN COUNTIES...TAPERING TO LESS                  
THAN .25" LOCALLY.                                                              
NO CHANGE IN GOING HEADLINES...FLOOD WATCH AREAS CONTINUE TO MATCH              
UP WELL WITH EXPECTED QPF. WIND ADVISORY MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH              
BUT IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND MAY SEE              
SOME GUSTS IN ADV RANGE. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO DROP THIS ONCE THE               
PICTURE STARTS TO CLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE HANNA WILL GO.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                         
THERE WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE INITIAL BANDOF SHOWERS THIS                    
MORNING TO THE NORTH AND THE APPROACHING HANNA CIRCULATION WHICH                
WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS              
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE               
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...THOUGH THE FARTHER NW ONE GOES            
THE LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED.                                                      
WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH INTO SUNDAY AFTN ATTM...AS RAINFALL                   
TAKES A WHILE TO REACH TRIBS AND RIVERS AND SHORT RANGE. RAIN                   
SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.                 
SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH MORE - SEASONABLE TEMPS THAN WE HAVE              
HAD RECENTLY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AFTER HANNA...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS TO                
THE AREA FOR MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                                        
A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA                  
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 06Z AND 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS OFTEN                 
OVERDO SYSTEMS. IN THIS CASE...DYNAMICS FCST TO LAG THE FRONT                   
ANYWAY...SO I AM NOT REAL CONCERN ABOUT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO                    
SEVERE STORMS. DID TAPER MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT OF                   
TUE EVENING FOR WESTERN ZONES...AS SYSTEM IS MOVING RIGHT                       
ALONG.                                                                          
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WED INTO THU WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.                     
WED AND THU SHOULD BE DRY. A WARM UP IN STORE FOR THE AREA                      
AFTER THIS.                                                                     
DID PUT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR FRIDAY...AS NEXT                       
FRONT NEARS THE AREA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST                
TO NORTHWEST AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA RIDES UP THE EAST COAST.                   
FIRST BAND OF RAIN ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...ACCOMPANIED BY IFR              
CIGS. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NW EARLY THIS                  
MORNING...COVERING NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN.                            
IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVR SOUTHEAST              
PA DURING THIS AFTN AS HANNA MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS ACROSS THE                 
DELMARVA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL                   
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTN AS MOIST LOW LVL SERLY        
FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. IMPROVING CONDS                  
WILL DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...AS               
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.                    
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CORE OF STRONG WINDS FROM HANNA                  
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS HANNA PULLS AWAY THIS              
EVENING...SFC WNDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO BTWN 10-15KTS AS THEY                  
BACK TO THE NW.                                                                 
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES COULD RESULT IN                  
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND JST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                      
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THRU THE AREA                 
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS. HI PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR                          
MIDWEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD FLYING CONDS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF                 
CENTRAL PA...AT LEAST IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RAIN OVER PARTS OF               
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD                    
WATCH FOR FIVE SERN MOST COUNTIES IN OUR CWA FOR THIS MORNING                   
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS RAINFALL TAKES A WHILE TO REACH TRIBS                
AND RIVERS. EVEN WITH VERY HIGH FFG AND HEADWATER VALUES THANKS TO              
THE RECENT VERY DRY WEATHER...MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL                
WILL LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE 3                     
INCHES OR MORE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                           
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ057>059-065-066.                                               
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR                       
PAZ057>059-064>066.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE/DEVOIR                                                       
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/DEVOIR                                                      
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
HYDROLOGY...DEVOIR                                                              
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
450 AM PDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE                  
WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS                   
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT                      
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SWINGS IN TOWARD MID WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 235 AM                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER                 
NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OVER                 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST                
HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST WEEK. THE RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY              
FLOW HAS KEPT EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO RELATIVELY                  
COOL. A BAND OF 700MB MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON               
LAST NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPOKANE...THE NORTHERN                
PALOUSE...AND SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY. THE RUC AS OF 09Z AND THE               
00Z NAM SHOW THIS RIBBON OF 700MB MOISTURE...AND FORECAST IT TO                 
GRADUALLY SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. FOR THIS                   
REASON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30                     
PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND               
OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE SPOKANE FORECAST AREA...THE BEST                   
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF               
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND OVER THE PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS                
HAVE NOT HANDLED THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DESCENDING INTO THE REGION              
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO IT IS HARD TO PUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES              
HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS              
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWS WILL                   
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT. THE THICK CLOUDS THAT WE                
HAVE EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT LIKELY BE AROUND TONIGHT TO               
INHIBIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. /GKOCH                                         
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE              
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA                  
COASTLINE SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL EXIT THE IDAHO PANHANDLE IN THE              
MORNING AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE FLATTENS             
MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN BRITISH                   
COLUMBIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE MODELS WITH THE           
TROUGH...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT HAS CAUGHT UP TIMING-WISE WITH               
THE ECMWF. TUESDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND WINDS                
WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.              
FOR THE LAST DAY THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN SHOWING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS              
FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME...BUT IT IS VERY LIGHT. DID NOT MAKE            
ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL HAVE SLIGHT                  
CHANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS VERY DRY FROM 850-500 MB. THE              
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER RIDGE                
BUILDING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY MODELS ARE            
SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20C. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND                
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPS LOWER TUESDAY AND                  
WEDNESDAY TO NEAR AVERAGE READINGS...AND THEN REBOUND AGAIN TO ABOVE            
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /NISBET                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN                     
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL               
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 6KFT...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH            
12Z SUNDAY. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE                 
THROUGH 06Z...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY               
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. /GKOCH                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        73  48  76  48  79  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  71  46  76  46  78  45 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
PULLMAN        73  44  76  43  79  44 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
LEWISTON       80  54  81  53  85  54 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
COLVILLE       74  43  79  42  81  45 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
SANDPOINT      68  41  72  40  74  43 /  10  10  10   0   0   0                 
KELLOGG        68  45  72  45  77  48 /  20  20   0   0   0   0                 
MOSES LAKE     81  51  83  48  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      80  55  81  54  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                 
OMAK           80  50  82  47  83  50 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
304 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND            
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                                  
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH                     
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAD MOVED            
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING                
SOME LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS THAT                
HAVE CLEARED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM.                                         
06.00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RESIDE ACROSS THE            
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.                       
DIFFERENCES DO OCCUR WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES                     
AFFECTING THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH              
ANOTHER ONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE USED A BLEND APPROACH IN              
HANDLING BOTH OF THESE WAVES.                                                   
IN THE NEAR TERM...SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA             
THIS MORNING. LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS                     
MORNING...BUT RUC AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CUMULUS TO                       
REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP                
THINGS DRY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.                        
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE            
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG               
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT                
ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE REACHES THE             
WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH CONSISTENT SIGNAL...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE              
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.                                                          
AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD ON TO EVENING POPS WITH              
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS                
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. GFS FASTER IN TAKING               
THIS WAVE ACROSS IOWA ON MONDAY...WHILE NAM KEEPS BULK OF                       
LIFT/PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM FRONT RESIDING WELL TO OUR           
SOUTH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING BAND OF FN CONVERGENCE TO THE                
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS FORCING/LIFT WILL HAVE TO BATTLE            
A SOMEWHAT DRY SURFACE TO 700MB LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT MAY           
INHIBIT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SATURATION. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN           
THE CHANCE CATEGORY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER ONES           
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING.                       
TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THE             
AREA. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY THEN BELOW                   
GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS              
GRIDDED FORECAST.                                                               
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
NO CHANGES MADE TO THIS TIME FRAME. BOTH 06.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW              
GOOD CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES              
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND PUSHES EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS RETURN                
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WARM                     
ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER            
CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE                 
AREA. SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR               
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL              
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS. CURRENT                   
GRIDDED DATABASE HAS ALL THIS WELL IN HAND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL IN WAKE OF DEPARTING                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED AT KRST TAF SITE WITH               
CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT FOG ALSO TO DEVELOP AT KLSE ONCE MID CLOUD               
COVER DEPARTS EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT            
AROUND 15Z ONCE GOOD MIXING OCCURS WITH WESTERLY AIRFLOW. WEAK AREA             
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY. OTHERWISE...COLD AIR             
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD WITH            
BASES IN THE 3-4KFT RANGE AFTER 17Z.  ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND                 
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF -SHRA AT THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A VCSH MENTION AT THE KRST/KLSE TAF             
SITES AFTER 06Z WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR            
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RABERDING                                                     
AVIATION..........DAS                                                           
</pre> wi